WorldWideScience

Sample records for change ipcc a1b

  1. Mesh climate change data of Japan ver. 2 for climate change impact assessments under IPCC SRES A1B and A2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okada, M.; Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Yokozawa, M.

    2009-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in 2007 and stated that recent climate change and variation are induced by increases in the atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHG) concentration due to anthropogenic activities. The report includes the results of impact assessments on a wide range of sectors. These assessments have been conducted based on future climate projections, which refer to aspects of the future climate evaluated by Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs). The projection data used in the AR4 are archived under the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) promoted by the U.S. Department of Energy. We interpolated the projection data around Japan and constructed a dataset entitled the 'Mesh climate change data of Japan Ver. 2' for the climate change impact study. Nine projections performed by seven models under the A1B and A2 of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) were implemented for the dataset. They consist of mesh data with a size of 7.5 min in longitude and 5.0 min in latitude, i.e. approximately 10 X 10 km (45 sec in longitude and 30 sec in latitude, approximately 1 x 1 km, for one high-resolution model). The dataset includes five climatic elements, i.e. the daily mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures, daily total precipitation, and daily accumulated shortwave radiation for three periods, 1981-2000, 2046-2065, and 2081-2100. This article describes the details concerning the construction and characteristics of the data

  2. Climate change science - beyond IPCC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicholls, N.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: The main conclusions of the IPCC Working Group I assessment of the physical science of climate change, from the Fourth IPCC Assessment, will be presented, along with the evidence supporting these conclusions. These conclusions include: Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years. The global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land use change, while those of methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture; The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate has improved since the Third Assessment Report, leading to very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] Wm-2; Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level; At continental, regional and ocean basin scales, numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed. These include changes in arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones. Palaeo-climatic information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the last half-century is unusual in at least the previous 1,300 years; Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations; Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental

  3. Coffee Beverage Quality Assessment Based on ETA/CPTEC-HadCM3 Model (A1B-IPCC/SRES Scenario), Southeastern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giarolla, A.; Resende, N.; Chou, S. C.; Tavares, P. S.; Rodrigues, D. C.

    2012-04-01

    Environmental factors influence the coffee beverage quality and air temperature has a significant importance in this process. The grain maturation occurs very quickly in regions that present high temperatures and sometimes there is not enough time to complete all this phase adequately. In the other hand, with mild temperatures, the grain maturation occurs more slowly and it promotes a better quality beverage. The aim of this study was to assess the coffee beverage quality in the southeastern Brazil, based on climate projections using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model (HadCM3). The global model ensemble was run over the 21st century according to IPCC SRES, A1B emissions scenario. Each ensemble member presented different climate sensitivity in the analysis. The Eta-CPTEC-HadCM3 model was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over the period of 1961-90 to represent a baseline climate, and over the period of 2011-2100 to simulate possible future changes and the effects on the coffee beverage quality. A coffee beverage quality classification, which depends on the annual air temperature proposed by Bressani (2007) and also, a quality coffee beverage sensory classification, based on Camargo and Cortez (1998) were considered in this study. An evaluation of the systematic errors (BIAS) for each member for the period from 1961 to 1990 was made. The results presented by Eta/CPTEC-HadCM3 model indicated that in the case of an occurrence of A1B emission scenario, the coffee beverage quality could be affected in this region due to the fact that the flavor may become stronger and unpleasant caused by rising air temperatures. The BIAS evaluation and subsequent errors removal demonstrated improvement in the scenarios simulations. A short review concerning agronomic techniques to mitigate extreme meteorological events or global warming on coffee crop based on Camargo (2010) also is

  4. What does the new IPCC report say about climate change?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petit, Michel

    2013-01-01

    The author comments the contents of the latest IPCC report which has been published in September 2013. He gives an overview of climate understanding, comments and discusses the climate natural variations, the changes of atmosphere composition which appears to be notably related to human activities, the noticed climate change, the developments, use and results of climate models, the comparison of their results with recent observations, and climate changes which have been already noticed or foreseen for the 21. century. He finally evokes the perspective of an ineluctable climate change

  5. To better understand the IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Planton, Serge; Jouzel, Jean; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Soussana, Jean-Francois; Hourcade, Jean-Charles

    2013-10-01

    After indication of some figures illustrating the IPCC's activity, and a presentation of the IPCC by some scientists who are members of IPCC groups, this publication, while answering to some popular misconceptions, indicates important dates for climate and for the IPCC, briefly recalls the IPCC creation and mission. It presents its structure and organisation, gives a brief overview of its activities, presents the role, composition and activities of the different working groups. It indicates the key elements for climate and its evolution. It proposes an overview of the content of the fifth IPCC report, and presents and comments the process of elaboration of assessment reports

  6. Assessment of simulated and projected climate change in Pakistan using IPCC AR4-based AOGCMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saeed, F.; Athar, H.

    2017-11-01

    A detailed spatio-temporal assessment of two basic climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) is carried out using 22 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4)-based atmospheric oceanic general circulation models (AOGCMs) over data-sparse and climatically vulnerable region of Pakistan (20°-37° N and 60°-78° E), for the first time, for the baseline period (1975-1999), as well as for the three projected periods during the twenty-first century centered at 2025-2049, 2050-2074, and 2075-2099, respectively, both on seasonal and on annual bases, under three Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2, A1B, and B1. An ensemble-based approach consisting of the IPCC AR4-based AOGCMs indicates that during the winter season (from December to March), 66% of the models display robust projected increase of winter precipitation by about 10% relative to the baseline period, irrespective of emission scenario and projection period, in the upper northern subregion of Pakistan (latitude > 35° N). The projected robust changes in the temperature by the end of twenty-first century are in the range of 3 to 4 ° C during the winter season and on an annual basis, in the central and western regions of Punjab province, especially in A2 and A1B emission scenarios. In particular, the IPCC AR4 models project a progressive increase in temperature throughout Pakistan, in contrast to spatial distribution of precipitation, where spatially less uniform and robust results for projected periods are obtained on sign of change. In general, changes in both precipitation and temperature are larger in the summer season (JAS) as compared to the winter season in the coming decades, relative to the baseline period. This may require comprehensive long-term strategic policies to adapt and mitigate climate change in Pakistan, in comparison to what is currently envisaged.

  7. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Observed Climate Change Impacts Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessement Report (AR4) Observed Climate Change Impacts Database contains observed responses to climate...

  8. Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji-Woo Lee

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM, namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs, Regional Model Program (RMP. The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4. The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070 simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.

  9. Are the Projections of Future Climate Change Reliable in the IPCC Reports?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zongci Zhao

    2011-01-01

    @@ As we know,the projections of future climate change including impacts and strategies in the IPCC Assessment Reports were based on global climate models with scenarios on various human activities.Global climate model simulations provide key inputs for climate change assessments. In this study,the main objective is to analyze if the projections of fu-ture climate change by global climate models are reli-able.Several workshops have been held on this issue,such as the IPCC expert meeting on assessing and combining multi-model climate projections in January of 2010 (presided by the co-chairs of the IPCC WGI and WGII AR5),and the workshop of the combined global climate model group held by NCAR in June of 2010.

  10. Studies to support the IPCC and other climate change discussions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwengels, P.

    1991-01-01

    Developing countries and multilateral development banks are recognizing that the capital requirements for increasing energy supply - particularly electricity - and the foreign exchange implications of increasing imports of fossil fuels will become a major constraint to continued economic development for many countries. Thus, for most countries, business-as-usual energy development is not sustainable on strictly economic terms. In addition, the inefficient fossil-fueled energy systems in developing countries are major contributors to the growing local and regional environmental problems in these nations. There is growing recognition in many countries that economic development must be environmentally sustainable as well, and that traditional energy development often does not meet this test. The industrialized countries are becoming concerned about the risks of global climate change. While recognizing that they themselves are the major historic contributors to greenhouse gas build-up, they also can see that rapid economic development in the developing world along traditional energy-intensive patterns could drive future growth in greenhouse gas emissions. The industrialized countries currently provide significant amounts of assistance to developing countries in the energy sector. The concerns about climate change provide strong incentives to these countries to intensify their energy-related assistance, to improve international cooperation in this area and, most importantly, to redirect energy assistance toward more efficient and cleaner technologies

  11. An evaluation of the treatment of risk and uncertainties in the IPCC reports on climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aven, Terje; Renn, Ortwin

    2015-04-01

    Few global threats rival global climate change in scale and potential consequence. The principal international authority assessing climate risk is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Through repeated assessments the IPCC has devoted considerable effort and interdisciplinary competence to articulating a common characterization of climate risk and uncertainties. We have reviewed the assessment and its foundation for the Fifth Assessment Reports published in 2013 and 2014, in particular the guidance note for lead authors of the fifth IPCC assessment report on consistent treatment of uncertainties. Our analysis shows that the work carried out by the ICPP is short of providing a theoretically and conceptually convincing foundation on the treatment of risk and uncertainties. The main reasons for our assessment are: (i) the concept of risk is given a too narrow definition (a function of consequences and probability/likelihood); and (ii) the reports lack precision in delineating their concepts and methods. The goal of this article is to contribute to improving the handling of uncertainty and risk in future IPCC studies, thereby obtaining a more theoretically substantiated characterization as well as enhanced scientific quality for risk analysis in this area. Several suggestions for how to improve the risk and uncertainty treatment are provided. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Climate change on Twitter: topics, communities and conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, Warren; Holmberg, Kim; Hellsten, Iina; Nerlich, Brigitte

    2014-01-01

    In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate in one public forum: Twitter. Using statistical methods, tweets were analyzed to discover the hashtags used when people tweeted about the IPCC report, and how Twitter users formed communities around their conversational connections. In short, the paper presents the topics and tweeters at this particular moment in the climate debate. The most used hashtags related to themes of science, geographical location and social issues connected to climate change. Particularly noteworthy were tweets connected to Australian politics, US politics, geoengineering and fracking. Three communities of Twitter users were identified. Researcher coding of Twitter users showed how these varied according to geographical location and whether users were supportive, unsupportive or neutral in their tweets about the IPCC. Overall, users were most likely to converse with users holding similar views. However, qualitative analysis suggested the emergence of a community of Twitter users, predominantly based in the UK, where greater interaction between contrasting views took place. This analysis also illustrated the presence of a campaign by the non-governmental organization Avaaz, aimed at increasing media coverage of the IPCC report.

  13. Climate change on Twitter: topics, communities and conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 report.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Warren Pearce

    Full Text Available In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate in one public forum: Twitter. Using statistical methods, tweets were analyzed to discover the hashtags used when people tweeted about the IPCC report, and how Twitter users formed communities around their conversational connections. In short, the paper presents the topics and tweeters at this particular moment in the climate debate. The most used hashtags related to themes of science, geographical location and social issues connected to climate change. Particularly noteworthy were tweets connected to Australian politics, US politics, geoengineering and fracking. Three communities of Twitter users were identified. Researcher coding of Twitter users showed how these varied according to geographical location and whether users were supportive, unsupportive or neutral in their tweets about the IPCC. Overall, users were most likely to converse with users holding similar views. However, qualitative analysis suggested the emergence of a community of Twitter users, predominantly based in the UK, where greater interaction between contrasting views took place. This analysis also illustrated the presence of a campaign by the non-governmental organization Avaaz, aimed at increasing media coverage of the IPCC report.

  14. More carbon dioxide is a result of climatic change, not a cause. Independent scientists correct KNMI and IPCC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voortman, A.J.

    2004-01-01

    Attention is paid to opponents of the carbon dioxide hypothesis, supported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC), in which it is stated that climatic change is caused by an increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere [nl

  15. What lessons from part 2 of the fifth UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laville, Bettina

    2014-04-01

    This paper analyses part 2 of the fifth UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report which describes with a detailed mapping the global warming impacts on species, oceans and economy. The IPCC proposes a geopolitical model of continuous and smooth adaptation to climate change which would imply a new cooperation-creating economy and would mitigate the risks of international conflicts. This new economy must rely on strong public organisations which implies a beforehand restoration of public accounts

  16. Vulnerability of Australian agriculture to climate change: sequencing impacts over IPCC trajectories for adaptation planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mallawaarachchi, Thilak; Hodges, Andrew; Wicks, Santhi; Kokic, Phil; Nelson, Rohan

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: Agricultural systems are susceptible to adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. While the degree of vulnerability is a function of the magnitude and the rate of variation in climate exposure, agricultural systems with a stronger adaptive capacity are likely to be less vulnerable to climate change. In preparing the agriculture sector for ongoing climate change, adaptation planning to moderate potential impacts and to take advantage of opportunities, has emerged as an effective strategic response. Global climate change scenarios developed by the IPCC indicate that changes in climate may alter the production potential of agriculture across many regions. Wide regional variability in productivity, extensive land use and the dominance in rural economies across Australia could expose agriculture to considerable risks from climate change impacts. In many cases these risks could cascade across a range of sectors and vary overtime, reflecting the capacity of exposed enterprises to adapt to a changing climate by taking advantage of opportunities. Effective planning of adaptation responses will require integrated assessments of regional vulnerability to climate risks over IPCC projection trajectories. In this paper, we present a method for estimating and mapping vulnerability to climate risks at the regional level, and apply this method to examine the vulnerability of Australian agriculture to climate change, focusing on case studies drawn from dryland broadacre and irrigated horticulture industries. In developing a conceptual framework for assessing vulnerability and adaptation options, the paper provides a review of key approaches used globally for the assessment of vulnerability to climate change in agriculture. It presents an approach to link global climate change scenario-based projections for assessing economic impacts on industries and regions through a process that maps climate risks to factors contributing

  17. IPCC Climate Change 2013: Mitigation of Climate Change - Key Findings and Lessons Learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokona, Youba

    2014-05-01

    The Working Group III contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Mitigation of Climate Change, examines the results of scientific research about mitigation, with special attention on how knowledge has evolved since the Fourth Assessment Report published in 2007. Throughout, the focus is on the implications of its findings for policy, without being prescriptive about the particular policies that governments and other important participants in the policy process should adopt. The report begins with a framing of important concepts and methods that help to contextualize the findings presented throughout the assessment. The valuation of risks and uncertainties, ethical concepts and the context of sustainable development and equity are among the guiding principles for the assessment of mitigation strategies. The report highlights past trends in stocks and flows of greenhouse gases and the factors that drive emissions at global, regional, and sectoral scales including economic growth, technology or population changes. It provides analyses of the technological, economic and institutional requirements of long-term mitigation scenarios and details on mitigation measures and policies that are applied in different economic sectors and human settlements. It then discusses interactions of mitigation policies and different policy instrument types at national, regional and global governance levels and between economic sectors, The Working Group III report comprises 16 chapters and in assembling this assessment authors were guided by the principles of the IPCC mandate: to be explicit about mitigation options, to be explicit about their costs and about their risks and opportunities vis-à-vis other development priorities, and to be explicit about the underlying criteria, concepts, and methods for evaluating alternative policies.

  18. Trends in marine climate change research in the Nordic region since the first IPCC report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Martin Wæver; Kokkalis, Alexandros; Bardarson, H.

    2016-01-01

    Oceans are exposed to anthropogenic climate change shifting marine systems toward potential instabilities. The physical, biological and social implications of such shifts can be assessed within individual scientific disciplines, but can only be fully understood by combining knowledge and expertise...... across disciplines. For climate change related problems these research directions have been well-established since the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990, however it is not well-documented to what extent these directions are reflected in published research. Focusing on the Nordic region, we...... evaluated the development of climate change related marine science by quantifying trends in number of publications, disciplinarity, and scientific focus of 1362 research articles published between 1990 and 2011. Our analysis showed a faster increase in publications within climate change related marine...

  19. Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change. Can the IPCC Technical Guidelines be applied?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein, R.J.T.; Nicholls, R.J.; Mimura, Nobuo

    1999-01-01

    This paper evaluates the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations with respect to the guidance offered for coastal-adaptation assessment. It appears that the IPCC Technical Guidelines focus strongly on implementation. This paper uses both conceptual, and empirical information is used in this paper to show that coastal adaptation embraces more than selecting one of the 'technical' options to respond to sea-level rise (retreat, accommodate or protect). Coastal adaptation is a more complex and iterative process with a series of policy cycles. To be effective, an expanded adaptation framework involving four steps is suggested, including (1) information collection and awareness raising; (2) planning and design; (3) implementation, and (4) monitoring and evaluation. The incomplete coverage of these four steps in existing coastal-adaptation assessments constrains the development of adaptation strategies that are supported by the relevant actors and integrated into existing management. Researchers and policy-makers are recommended to work together to establish a framework for adaptation that is integrated within current coastal management processes and practices and takes a broader view on the subject. 46 refs

  20. Tracking climate change. The IPCC in Four Questions. The Hidden Face of Climate Research. Climate Change: Facts and Uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beriot, Nicolas; Jouzel, Jean; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Braconnot, Pascale; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Le Treut, Herve; Pachauri, Rajendra; Cazenave, Anny; Planton, Serge; Feral, Jean-Pierre

    2014-01-01

    Scientists and government delegations from around the world gathered in Stockholm (Sweden) in September 2013 to approve the first volume of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This document reviews existing scientific knowledge on the Earth's climate. How was it prepared? How do scientists conduct research on climate change? What do they know for certain? What remains to be discovered?

  1. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and scientific consensus. How scientists come to say what they say about climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H; Skodvin, Tora

    1998-12-01

    This document reviews the background, organization and operation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It gives some background on climate change in the past and finally discusses what IPCC says about the likely future impact of anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases. 14 refs., 8 figs.

  2. Global and regional climate change: new evidences between two IPCC reports

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mika, J. [Eszterhazy Karoly College, Budapest (Hungary). Dept. of Geography

    2011-07-01

    The climate of our planet has never been constant, but the recent changes are by two orders of magnitude faster than the natural changes since the appearance of anthropogenic effects. The discernable global warming started in the 19th century and after speeding up in the 20th century, it has reached about 0.8 K. This fact and the realization of the likely reasons for the changes, plus rapid development of computer technology have resulted in systematic investigations of climate science. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) finalized its Fourth Assessment Report in 2007. The present paper suveys some recent moments of global and regional climate change issued after the Report. Even the economic crisis was not strong enough to deflect the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing for more than one year. It tends to develop at the upper edge of the IPCC (2007) projection band of uncertainties. The part of the emitted carbon dioxide remaining in the atmosphere is increasing due to weakening of both the biospheric- and the oceanic sinks of this greenhouse gas. The new radiation balance estimations must admit the imbalance between the atmosphere and the oceans indicating the fact that the greenhouse warming definitely takes place. The year 2010 became most likely the warmest one on the global temperature record. The sea-level rise also follows the most rapid track among the foreseen scenarios. In the meantime modelling effort to better estimate regional features of the changes also develop in their full strength. The ENSEMBLES Project ended in December 2009 and published a lot of maps with 25 km model resolution. These results, however, do not show convergence in the estimations for many regions, including Central Europe.

  3. Climate Change Mitigation in a Sustainable World - Findings of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sims, R. E. H.

    2007-01-01

    The 4th Assessment Report on climate change of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) has recently been completed. The fi rst report in the IPCC 4th Assessment series by Working Group I outlined the latest knowledge on Climate Science. The second by Working Group 2 covered the possibilities for Adaptation of ecosystems, glaciers preceding, sea level rising, droughts etc in various regions. This paper is based on the findings of Working Group III as presented in the recently published report Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. The 27 paragraph Summary for Policy Makers was approved sentence by sentence over 4 days in May 2007 by 120 government delegations in Bangkok, Thailand. The three short Summaries for Policy Makers (SPM), Synthesis report, and the three full reports can be found at www.ipcc.ch. In addition the short Synthesis Report across all three working groups is soon to be released. The report on Mitigation attempted to compile the latest scientific knowledge relating to low-carbon emitting technologies; assessed their costs and potentials for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission avoidance; evaluated their long term prospects out to 2100 for stabilising atmospheric GHGs; provided a detailed list of policy options; and discussed the opportunities for sustainable development and equity linked with GHG abatement. Over the 3 year writing and review process, the author of this paper was the co-ordinating lead author of the writing team for the Working Group III chapter on Energy Supply. Of the 13 chapters, this one received the greatest attention with over 5000 review comments that were each responded to, and with the sections on nuclear and renewable energy receiving a major share of them. Since the 3rd Assessment Report (TAR) was published in 2001, the over-arching message now being delivered by Working Group III is a stronger but positive one: Action is required. The situation is urgent - but not beyond repair. Many energy

  4. Future projections of insured losses in the German private building sector following the A1B climatic change scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Held, H.; Gerstengarbe, F.-W.; Hattermann, F.; Pinto, J. G.; Ulbrich, U.; Böhm, U.; Born, K.; Büchner, M.; Donat, M. G.; Kücken, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Nissen, K.; Nocke, T.; Österle, H.; Pardowitz, T.; Werner, P. C.; Burghoff, O.; Broecker, U.; Kubik, A.

    2012-04-01

    We present an overview of a complementary-approaches impact project dealing with the consequences of climate change for the natural hazard branch of the insurance industry in Germany. The project was conducted by four academic institutions together with the German Insurance Association (GDV) and finalized in autumn 2011. A causal chain is modeled that goes from global warming projections over regional meteorological impacts to regional economic losses for private buildings, hereby fully covering the area of Germany. This presentation will focus on wind storm related losses, although the method developed had also been applied in part to hail and flood impact losses. For the first time, the GDV supplied their collected set of insurance cases, dating back for decades, for such an impact study. These data were used to calibrate and validate event-based damage functions which in turn were driven by three different types of regional climate models to generate storm loss projections. The regional models were driven by a triplet of ECHAM5 experiments following the A1B scenario which were found representative in the recent ENSEMBLES intercomparison study. In our multi-modeling approach we used two types of regional climate models that conceptually differ at maximum: a dynamical model (CCLM) and a statistical model based on the idea of biased bootstrapping (STARS). As a third option we pursued a hybrid approach (statistical-dynamical downscaling). For the assessment of climate change impacts, the buildings' infrastructure and their economic value is kept at current values. For all three approaches, a significant increase of average storm losses and extreme event return levels in the German private building sector is found for future decades assuming an A1B-scenario. However, the three projections differ somewhat in terms of magnitude and regional differentiation. We have developed a formalism that allows us to express the combined effect of multi-source uncertainty on return

  5. Evaluation of an IPCC climate report. An analysis of conclusions on the possible regional consequences of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    This report contains the results of a study of the reliability of the regional chapters (H9-16) of the contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Climate Report of the IPCC (the sub report on consequences, adaptation and vulnerability). Moreover an assessment was made of the possible consequences of errors for the conclusions in the high level summaries of that report. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency did not detect any errors that may undermine the main conclusions of the scientific UN Climate Panel IPCC of 2007 on the possible future consequences of climate change. However, some of the substantiations of the conclusions lack clarity. To prevent lack of clarity and inaccuracies the IPCC needs to invest more in quality checks. [nl

  6. Global Warming Induced Changes in Rainfall Characteristics in IPCC AR5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, Jenny, H.-T.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2012-01-01

    Changes in rainfall characteristic induced by global warming are examined from outputs of IPCC AR5 models. Different scenarios of climate warming including a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), a medium mitigation scenario (RCP 4.5), and 1% per year CO2 increase are compared to 20th century simulations (historical). Results show that even though the spatial distribution of monthly rainfall anomalies vary greatly among models, the ensemble mean from a sizable sample (about 10) of AR5 models show a robust signal attributable to GHG warming featuring a shift in the global rainfall probability distribution function (PDF) with significant increase (>100%) in very heavy rain, reduction (10-20% ) in moderate rain and increase in light to very light rains. Changes in extreme rainfall as a function of seasons and latitudes are also examined, and are similar to the non-seasonal stratified data, but with more specific spatial dependence. These results are consistent from TRMM and GPCP rainfall observations suggesting that extreme rainfall events are occurring more frequently with wet areas getting wetter and dry-area-getting drier in a GHG induced warmer climate.

  7. Climate change. Important findings from the 4. fact finding report of the intergovernmental commission on climate change of the United Nations (IPCC); Klimaaenderung. Wichtige Erkentnisse aus dem 4. Sachstandsbericht des Zwischenstaatlichen Ausschusses fuer Klimaaenderungen der Vereinten Nationen (IPCC)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maeder, Claudia

    2009-12-19

    The Report covers the following topics: 1. anthropogenic climate change - since when do we know about it? 2. IPCC - the intergovernmental commission for climate change. 3. Assignable causes for climate change: changes of incoming solar radiation, changes of the reflected solar radiation, change of the heat radiation lost into space, aerosols, internal variability of the climate system. 4. Historical climate changes in long periods. 5. Development of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. 6. Observed climate changes. 7. Projections of future climate changes. 8. Consequences of climate change: consequences of the actual temperature increase, possible future consequences, freshwater resources and their management, ecosystems, agricultural production, coastal regions and low lying areas.

  8. Climate experts. The IPCC in Four Questions. Behind-the-scene of Climate Research. Climate Change: evidences and Uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beriot, Nicolas; Jouzel, Jean; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Braconnot, Pascale; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Le Treut, Herve; Pachauri, Rajendra; Cazenave, Anny; Planton, Serge; Feral, Jean-Pierre

    2013-01-01

    Scientists and government delegations from around the world gathered in Stockholm (Sweden) in September 2013 to approve the first volume of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This document reviews existing scientific knowledge on the Earth's climate. How was it prepared? How do scientists conduct research on climate change? What do they know for certain? What remains to be discovered?

  9. Construction of climate change scenarios from transient climate change experiments for the IPCC impacts assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viner, D.; Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.; Jones, P.D.

    1994-01-01

    This paper outlines the different methods which may be used for the construction of regional climate change scenarios. The main focus of the paper is the construction of global climate change scenarios from climate change experiments carried out using General Circulation Models (GCMS) An introduction to some GCM climate change experiments highlights the difference between model types and experiments (e.g., equilibrium or transient). The latest generation of climate change experiments has been performed using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMS. These allow transient simulations of climate change to be performed with respect to a given greenhouse gas forcing scenario. There are, however, a number of problems with these simulations which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios for use in climate change impacts assessment. The characteristics of the transient climate change experiments which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios are discussed. Three examples of these problems are: different climate change experiments use different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios; the 'cold-start' problem makes it difficult to link future projections of climate change to a given calendar year; a drift of the climate is noticeable in the control simulations. In order to construct climate change scenarios for impacts assessment a method has therefore to be employed which addresses these problems. At present the climate modeling and climate change impacts communities are somewhat polarized in their approach to spatial scales. Current GCMs model the climate at resolutions larger than 2.5 x 3.75 degree, while the majority of impacts assessment studies are undertaken at scales below 50km (or 0.5 degree). This paper concludes by addressing the problems in bringing together these two different modeling perspectives by presenting a number of regional climate change scenarios. 35 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs

  10. Enhancing the contribution and role of practitioner knowledge in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Working Group (WG II process: Insights from UK workshops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Candice Howarth

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This perspective critically assesses how the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC could facilitate a closer alignment of its activities and include lessons drawn from the policy and decision-making communities working on the ground at the regional/local levels. The objective is to facilitate practitioner input into the detailed choice of topics and priorities for IPCC review and in the conclusions drawn (we define practitioners as those engaged in the development and application of practical responses to climate change on the ground. By means of a series of workshops with academics, policy officials and decision-makers in the United Kingdom, the research reported here illuminates how the IPCC’s Working Group II (WGII has been used in the past to inform decision-making and how practitioner responses to climate change could better inform the IPCC process in the future. In particular, we recommend three key actions. Firstly that IPCC WGII should incorporate more practitioners as authors to improve the awareness and understanding amongst the writing teams of the nature and detail of decisions being made in response to climate change; secondly a practitioner-led IPCC Special Report should be commissioned on good-practice responses to climate change; and thirdly a new body should be created, attached to the IPCC, to synthesise and report on good practice on climate response strategies in a timely manner. By adopting these recommendations, the IPCC could become more directly useful to decision-makers working on adaptation at the national, regional and local levels and enable more actionable decision-making.

  11. Noaa contributions to the 1995 IPCC assessments: A summary of the current and future activities of the intergovernmental panel on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albritton, D.; Levy, J.

    1993-05-01

    Contents: introduction -the IPCC and NOAA; NOAA contributions to the IPCC 1995 science assessment; NOAA contributions to the IPCC 1995 impacts, adaptation, and mitigation assessment; NOAA contributions to the 1995 IPCC economics and greenhouse-gas scenario assessment

  12. Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: A review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa V. Alexander

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC first attempted a global assessment of long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in its Third Assessment Report in 2001. While data quality and coverage were limited, the report still concluded that heavy precipitation events had increased and that there had been, very likely, a reduction in the frequency of extreme low temperatures and increases in the frequency of extreme high temperatures. That overall assessment had changed little by the time of the IPCC Special Report on Extremes (SREX in 2012 and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 in 2013, but firmer statements could be added and more regional detail was possible. Despite some substantial progress throughout the IPCC Assessments in terms of temperature and precipitation extremes analyses, there remain major gaps particularly regarding data quality and availability, our ability to monitor these events consistently and our ability to apply the complex statistical methods required. Therefore this article focuses on the substantial progress that has taken place in the last decade, in addition to reviewing the new progress since IPCC AR5 while also addressing the challenges that still lie ahead.

  13. The impact of SciDAC on US climate change research and the IPCC AR4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wehner, Michael

    2005-01-01

    SciDAC has invested heavily in climate change research. We offer a candid opinion as to the impact of the DOE laboratories' SciDAC projects on the upcoming Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

  14. IPCC Reasons for Concern Regarding Climate Change Risks: Implications for 1.5 and 2 C Targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, B. C.; Oppenheimer, M.

    2016-12-01

    The Reasons for Concern (RFC) framework communicates scientific understanding about risks in relation to varying levels of climate change. The framework, which has been a cornerstone of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments since the Third Assessment Report, aggregates global risks into five categories as a function of global mean temperature change (GMT). The RFC framework was developed to inform discussions relevant to implementation of Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Article 2 presents the Convention's long-term objective of avoiding "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." The RFC framework and the associated "Burning Embers" diagram illustrating authors' risk judgments have since been widely discussed and used to inform policy decisions. For example, they informed a recent dialog between Parties to the UNFCCC and experts on the adequacy of the long-term goal of avoiding a warming of 2°C relative to pre-industrial, contributing to a strengthening of that goal in the recent Paris Agreement. We draw on a new review and update of the RFC's conceptual basis and the risk judgments made in the most recent IPCC report to discuss their implications for risks associated with GMT targets of 1.5 C and 2 C adopted in the Paris Agreement. In general, the RFCs imply that continued high emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) would lead to high or very high risk of severe, widespread, and in some cases irreversible climate change impacts within this century. At 2°C above preindustrial, High risks are based on increasing risks to Arctic and coral reef systems, as well as increasing species extinction risks that undermine ecosystems (RFC 1), and projected increasing magnitude and likelihood of extreme weather events (RFC 2). Moderate-to-High risks are based on projections of increasing risks to crop production and water resources (RFC 3), and to the risks associated with ice sheet

  15. IPCC Socio-Economic Baseline Dataset

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Socio-Economic Baseline Dataset consists of population, human development, economic, water resources, land...

  16. Climate change on Twitter: topics, communities and conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pearce, W; Holmberg, K; Hellsten, I.; Nerlich, B.

    2014-01-01

    In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate

  17. The social costs of climate change. The IPCC second assessment report and beyond

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fankhauser, S.; Tol, R.S.J.

    1997-01-01

    Climate change is expected to have far-reaching impacts. Earlier studies have estimated an aggregated monetised damage equivalent to 1.5 to 2.0 % of World GDP (for 2 x CO2). According to these estimates, the OECD would face losses equivalent to 1.0 to 1.5 % of GDP, and developing countries 2.0 to 9.0 %. While these figures are preliminary and highly uncertain, recent findings have not, as yet, changed the general picture. As is shown in this paper, estimates that are fully corrected for differences in purchasing power parity do not significantly differ from the initial figures. Newer studies increasingly emphasise adaptation, variability, extreme events, other (non-climate change) stress factors, and the need for integrated assessment of damages. Incorporating these factors has lead to increased differences in estimated impacts between different regions and sectors. Estimates of market impacts in developed countries tended to fall, while non-market impacts have become more important. Marginal damages are more interesting from a policy point of view. Earlier estimates range from about $5 to $125 per tonne of carbon, with most estimates at the lower end of this range. These figures are based on power functions in the level of climate change. The rate of change may be equally important, as are the speed of adaptation, restoration and value adjustment. Furthermore, future vulnerability to climate change will differ from current vulnerability: market impacts could fall (relatively) with economic growth while non-market impacts may rise. 6 tabs., 65 refs

  18. Climate Change Draws World Attention: The 2007 Nobel Peace Award Goes to Gore and IPCC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bisland, Beverly Milner; Ahmad, Iftikhar

    2008-01-01

    In the fall of 2007, the Nobel Committee awarded their Peace Prize to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological Organization and by the United Nations Environment Program) and to former Vice-President Al Gore, Jr. The committee praised the United Nations panel for creating…

  19. IPCC Climate Change 2013: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Key findings and lessons learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giorgi, Filippo; Field, Christopher; Barros, Vicente

    2014-05-01

    The Working Group II contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergivernmental Panel on Climate Change, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, will be completed and approved in March 2014. It includes two parts, Part A covering Global and Sectoral Aspects, and Part B, covering Regional Aspects. The WGII report spans a very broad range of topics which are approached in a strong interdisciplinary context. It highlights how observed impacts of climate change are now widespread and consequential, particularly for natural systems, and can be observed on all continents and across the oceans. Vulnerability to climate change depends on interactions with non-climatic stressors and inequalities, resulting in highly differential risks associated with climate change. It is also found that adaptation is already occurring across scales and is embedded in many planning processes. Continued sustained warming thrughout the 21st century will exacerbate risks and vulnerabilities across multiple sectors, such as freshwater resources, terrestrial and inland water systems, coastal and marine systems, food production, human health, security and livelihood. The report stresses how risks and vulnerabilities need to be assessed within a multi-stressor and regionally specific context, and can be reduced and managed by adopting climate-resilient pathwyas combining suitable adaptation and mitigation options with synergies and tradeoffs occurring both within and across regions. The Working group II report includes a large number of Chapters (30) and contributors (310 including authors and review editors), with expertise in a broad range of disciplines, from the physical science to the impact and socio-economic sciences. The communication across chapters and disciplines has been a challenge, and will continue to be one as the Global Change problem will increasingly require a fully integrated and holistic approach. Note that text on this abstract is not approved at the time its

  20. Simulation of regional climate change under the IPCC A2 scenario in southeast China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Weilin; Jiang, Zhihong [Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing (China); Li, Laurent [IPSL/CNRS/UPMC, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris (France); Yiou, Pascal [IPSL, UMR CNRS-CEA-UVSQ, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette (France)

    2011-02-15

    A variable-grid atmospheric general circulation model, LMDZ, with a local zoom over southeast China is used to investigate regional climate changes in terms of both means and extremes. Two time slices of 30 years are chosen to represent, respectively, the end of the 20th century and the middle of the 21st century. The lower-boundary conditions (sea-surface temperature and sea-ice extension) are taken from the outputs of three global coupled climate models: Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques (CNRM) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). Results from a two-way nesting system between LMDZ-global and LMDZ-regional are also presented. The evaluation of simulated temperature and precipitation for the current climate shows that LMDZ reproduces generally well the spatial distribution of mean climate and extreme climate events in southeast China, but the model has systematic cold biases in temperature and tends to overestimate the extreme precipitation. The two-way nesting model can reduce the ''cold bias'' to some extent compared to the one-way nesting model. Results with greenhouse gas forcing from the SRES-A2 emission scenario show that there is a significant increase for mean, daily-maximum and minimum temperature in the entire region, associated with a decrease in the number of frost days and an increase in the heat wave duration. The annual frost days are projected to significantly decrease by 12-19 days while the heat wave duration to increase by about 7 days. A warming environment gives rise to changes in extreme precipitation events. Except two simulations (LMDZ/GFDL and LMDZ/IPSL2) that project a decrease in maximum 5-day precipitation (R5d) for winter, other precipitation extremes are projected to increase over most of southeast China in all seasons, and among the three global scenarios. The domain-averaged values for annual simple daily intensity index (SDII), R5d and fraction of

  1. Impact of climate change on Precipitation and temperature under the RCP 8.5 and A1B scenarios in an Alpine Cathment (Alto-Genil Basin,southeast Spain). A comparison of statistical downscaling methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulido-Velazquez, David; Juan Collados-Lara, Antonio; Pardo-Iguzquiza, Eulogio; Jimeno-Saez, Patricia; Fernandez-Chacon, Francisca

    2016-04-01

    In order to design adaptive strategies to global change we need to assess the future impact of climate change on water resources, which depends on precipitation and temperature series in the systems. The objective of this work is to generate future climate series in the "Alto Genil" Basin (southeast Spain) for the period 2071-2100 by perturbing the historical series using different statistical methods. For this targeted we use information coming from regionals climate model simulations (RCMs) available in two European projects, CORDEX (2013), with a spatial resolution of 12.5 km, and ENSEMBLES (2009), with a spatial resolution of 25 km. The historical climate series used for the period 1971-2000 have been obtained from Spain02 project (2012) which has the same spatial resolution that CORDEX project (both use the EURO-CORDEX grid). Two emission scenarios have been considered: the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario, which is the most unfavorable scenario considered in the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and the A1B emission scenario of fourth Assessment Report (AR4). We use the RCM simulations to create an ensemble of predictions weighting their information according to their ability to reproduce the main statistic of the historical climatology. A multi-objective analysis has been performed to identify which models are better in terms of goodness of fit to the cited statistic of the historical series. The ensemble of the CORDEX and the ENSEMBLES projects has been finally created with nine and four models respectively. These ensemble series have been used to assess the anomalies in mean and standard deviation (differences between the control and future RCM series). A "delta-change" method (Pulido-Velazquez et al., 2011) has been applied to define future series by modifying the historical climate series in accordance with the cited anomalies in mean and standard deviation. A

  2. Climate response to projected changes in short-lived species under an A1B scenario from 2000-2050 in the GISS climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menon, Surabi; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Greg; Bauer, Susanne E.; Koch, Dorothy M.; Unger, Nadine; Menon, Surabi; Miller, Ron L.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Streets, David G.

    2007-03-26

    We investigate the climate forcing from and response to projected changes in short-lived species and methane under the A1B scenario from 2000-2050 in the GISS climate model. We present a meta-analysis of new simulations of the full evolution of gas and aerosol species and other existing experiments with variations of the same model. The comparison highlights the importance of several physical processes in determining radiative forcing, especially the effect of climate change on stratosphere-troposphere exchange, heterogeneous sulfate-nitrate-dust chemistry, and changes in methane oxidation and natural emissions. However, the impact of these fairly uncertain physical effects is substantially less than the difference between alternative emission scenarios for all short-lived species. The net global mean annual average direct radiative forcing from the short-lived species is .02 W/m{sup 2} or less in our projections, as substantial positive ozone forcing is largely offset by negative aerosol direct forcing. Since aerosol reductions also lead to a reduced indirect effect, the global mean surface temperature warms by {approx}0.07 C by 2030 and {approx}0.13 C by 2050, adding 19% and 17%, respectively, to the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases. Regional direct forcings are large, up to 3.8 W/m{sup 2}. The ensemble-mean climate response shows little regional correlation with the spatial pattern of the forcing, however, suggesting that oceanic and atmospheric mixing generally overwhelms the effect of even large localized forcings. Exceptions are the polar regions, where ozone and aerosols may induce substantial seasonal climate changes.

  3. Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: A review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond

    OpenAIRE

    Lisa V. Alexander

    2016-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) first attempted a global assessment of long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in its Third Assessment Report in 2001. While data quality and coverage were limited, the report still concluded that heavy precipitation events had increased and that there had been, very likely, a reduction in the frequency of extreme low temperatures and increases in the frequency of extreme high temperatures. That overall assessment had ch...

  4. Why We Don't Collaborate in Response to Climate Change: The Knowledge Deficit, Co-Production, and the Future of the IPCC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, B. R.; Overpeck, J. T.

    2014-12-01

    Scientific knowledge production is based on recognizing and filling knowledge deficits or 'gaps' in understanding, but for climate adaptation and mitigation, the applicability of this approach is questionable. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) mandate is an example of this type of 'gap filling,' in which the elimination of uncertainties is presumed to enable rational decision making for individuals and rational governance for societies. Presumed knowledge deficits, though, are unsuited to controversial problems with social, cultural, and economic dimensions; likewise, communication to educate is an ineffective means of inciting behavioural change. An alternative is needed, particularly given the economic, social, and political scale that action on climate change requires. We review the 'deficit-education framing' and show how it maintains a wedge between those affected and those whose knowledge is required. We then review co-production to show how natural and social scientists, as well as the IPCC, might more effectively proceed.

  5. The energy policy relevance of the 2014 IPCC Working Group III report on the macro-economics of mitigating climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosen, Richard A.; Guenther, Edeltraud

    2016-01-01

    Research which attempted to determine the macroeconomic importance of mitigating climate change through 2100 was presented primarily in Chapter 6 of the 2014 IPCC Working Group III report. Some of the findings of this chapter were then summarized in the Summary for Policy Makers (SPMs) of both the Synthesis Report, and the WGIII report. Unfortunately, these SPMs omitted key aspects of what the overall macroeconomic results for the costs and benefits of mitigating climate change actually did and did not include, how they were produced, and a careful assessment of their uncertainty and scientific validity. Yet, many of the major omissions were acknowledged deep in the text of Chapter 6, but were not revealed to the public. We conclude, therefore, that neither of these SPMs was useful for energy policy makers and energy managers, and they were misleading due to their many key omissions. Finally, we recommend several improvements that can be made to integrated assessment modeling methodologies so that the macroeconomic analysis of mitigating climate change resulting from the use of such models can be more relevant and useful to energy policy makers in the future, and can be communicated to them better. - Highlights: •The 2014 IPCC Working Group III Report has major omissions in its economic analysis. •Many well-known benefits of mitigation are not included in its economic results. •The Summary for Policy Makers is not very useful for energy policy decision makers. •The upcoming Sixth IPCC WGIII analysis should be structured quite differently.

  6. Science-policy interaction in the global greenhouse. Institutional design and institutional performance in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skodvin, Tora

    1999-08-01

    This paper explores the science-policy interaction and the extent to which and how institutional arrangements may be used as instruments for enhancing the effectiveness of the dialog. The first part develops the theory. The point of departure of the analysis is the internal dynamics of science and politics in their pure forms and the nature of the dynamics that are generated when these two distinct systems of behaviour meet. On this basis, then, the question of which functions the institutional apparatus should be able to serve in order to enhance the effectiveness of science-policy dialogue is addressed. This approach is then applied to an empirical case study of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) from its establishment in 1988 to the provision of the Second IPCC Assessment Report in 1995. 53 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  7. Influences of Regional Climate Change on Air Quality Across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC AR5 Simulations. Chapter 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolte, Christopher; Otte, Tanya; Pinder, Robert; Bowden, J.; Herwehe, J.; Faluvegi, Gregory; Shindell, Drew

    2013-01-01

    Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the global climate models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture regional-scale changes in temperatures and precipitation. We use a regional climate model (RCM) to dynamically downscale the GCM's large-scale signal to investigate the changes in regional and local extremes of temperature and precipitation that may result from a changing climate. In this paper, we show preliminary results from downscaling the NASA/GISS ModelE IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0 scenario. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices (1995-2005 and 2025-2035) and illustrate potential changes in regional climate for the continental U.S. that are projected by ModelE and WRF under RCP6.0. The regional climate change scenario is further processed using the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system to explore influences of regional climate change on air quality.

  8. Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 2: Precipitation mean state and seasonal cycle in South America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boulanger, Jean-Philippe [LODYC, UMR CNRS/IRD/UPMC, Tour 45-55/Etage 4/Case 100, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05 (France); University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Martinez, Fernando; Segura, Enrique C. [University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Computacion, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2007-02-15

    Evaluating the response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing is a major objective of the climate community, and the use of large ensemble of simulations is considered as a significant step toward that goal. The present paper thus discusses a new methodology based on neural network to mix ensemble of climate model simulations. Our analysis consists of one simulation of seven Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models, which participated in the IPCC Project and provided at least one simulation for the twentieth century (20c3m) and one simulation for each of three SRES scenarios: A2, A1B and B1. Our statistical method based on neural networks and Bayesian statistics computes a transfer function between models and observations. Such a transfer function was then used to project future conditions and to derive what we would call the optimal ensemble combination for twenty-first century climate change projections. Our approach is therefore based on one statement and one hypothesis. The statement is that an optimal ensemble projection should be built by giving larger weights to models, which have more skill in representing present climate conditions. The hypothesis is that our method based on neural network is actually weighting the models that way. While the statement is actually an open question, which answer may vary according to the region or climate signal under study, our results demonstrate that the neural network approach indeed allows to weighting models according to their skills. As such, our method is an improvement of existing Bayesian methods developed to mix ensembles of simulations. However, the general low skill of climate models in simulating precipitation mean climatology implies that the final projection maps (whatever the method used to compute them) may significantly change in the future as models improve. Therefore, the projection results for late twenty-first century conditions are presented as possible projections based on the &apos

  9. Renewable energy sources and climate change mitigation. Special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edenhofer, O. (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany)); Pichs Madruga, R. (Centro de Investigaciones de la Economia Mundial (CIEM), Hanoi (Viet Nam)); Sokona, Y. (African Climate Policy Centre, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, Addis Ababa (Ethiopia)) (and others)

    2012-07-01

    Climate change is one of the great challenges of the 21st century. Its most severe impacts may still be avoided if efforts are made to transform current energy systems. Renewable energy sources have a large potential to displace emissions of greenhouse gases from the combustion of fossil fuels and thereby to mitigate climate change. If implemented properly, renewable energy sources can contribute to social and economic development, to energy access, to a secure and sustainable energy supply, and to a reduction of negative impacts of energy provision on the environment and human health. This Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) impartially assesses the scientific literature on the potential role of renewable energy in the mitigation of climate change for policymakers, the private sector, academic researchers and civil society. It covers six renewable energy sources - bioenergy, direct solar energy, geothermal energy, hydropower, ocean energy and wind energy - as well as their integration into present and future energy systems. It considers the environmental and social consequences associated with the deployment of these technologies, and presents strategies to overcome technical as well as non-technical obstacles to their application and diffusion. The authors also compare the levelized cost of energy from renewable energy sources to recent non-renewable energy costs. (Author)

  10. IPCC is dead, long live science

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drieu, Godefridi

    2010-01-01

    Definitely at the counterflow of the climate debate, the author demonstrates that the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC, or GIEC in French,) is a piece of trickery which consists in presenting as scientifical a project which is mainly political, and that this trickery is the most incredible one that has market the modern science by the fastness and worldwide dimension of its success. The book is lesson of rigor given by philosophy to science. The author suggests to make a distinction between the debate inside the IPCC, which belongs to exact sciences, and the debate about the IPCC which is of epistemological type, i.e. institutional, logical, methodological. (J.S.)

  11. Exploring the science–policy interface on climate change: The role of the IPCC in informing local decision-making in the UK

    OpenAIRE

    Candice Howarth; James Painter

    2016-01-01

    Building on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) review of\\ud how to make its Assessment Reports (ARs) more accessible in the future, the research\\ud reported here assesses the extent to which the ARs are a useful tool through which scientific\\ud advice informs local decision-making on climate change in the United Kingdom. Results from\\ud interviews with local policy representatives and three workshops with UK academics, practitioners\\ud and local decision makers are present...

  12. IPCC. 4. climate assessment report, 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    The mission and challenge of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC, GIEC in French) is to evaluate, synthesize and make available the sum of scientific and economic information of the complex domain of climatic change, and in addition to make the results of these works accepted by government representatives of 192 states. This document makes a brief synthesis in three parts of the 4. assessment report of the IPCC: 1 - physical scientific bases of climatic change: characteristic of the phenomenon, greenhouse gas emissions trend, already observed effects, forecasts of climate models; 2 - impacts, adaptations and vulnerabilities of climatic change: types of future impacts, impacts per sector, regional impacts, limits of ecosystems adaptation; 3 - mitigation of climatic changes: past emissions and future trends, possible mitigation actions and cost, possible political levers for emissions abatement. A last part introduces the French researchers involved in IPCC's works. (J.S.)

  13. IPCC AR4 Simulations

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Future climate simulations (initial conditions from end of the 20th Century simulation):. “Committed Climate Change”: hold concentrations at year 2000; SRES A2 to 2100; SRES A1B to 2100 then fix concentrations (~720 ppm) for an additional century (with one realization extended to 2300); As above but with SRES B1 ...

  14. Linguistic analysis of IPCC summaries for policymakers and associated coverage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkemeyer, Ralf; Dessai, Suraje; Monge-Sanz, Beatriz; Renzi, Barbara Gabriella; Napolitano, Giulio

    2016-03-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policymakers (SPM) is the most widely read section of IPCC reports and the main springboard for the communication of its assessment reports. Previous studies have shown that communicating IPCC findings to a variety of scientific and non-scientific audiences presents significant challenges to both the IPCC and the mass media. Here, we employ widely established sentiment analysis tools and readability metrics to explore the extent to which information published by the IPCC differs from the presentation of respective findings in the popular and scientific media between 1990 and 2014. IPCC SPMs clearly stand out in terms of low readability, which has remained relatively constant despite the IPCC’s efforts to consolidate and readjust its communications policy. In contrast, scientific and quality newspaper coverage has become increasingly readable and emotive. Our findings reveal easy gains that could be achieved in making SPMs more accessible for non-scientific audiences.

  15. Future changes in peak river flows across northern Eurasia as inferred from an ensemble of regional climate projections under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shkolnik, Igor; Pavlova, Tatiana; Efimov, Sergey; Zhuravlev, Sergey

    2018-01-01

    Climate change simulation based on 30-member ensemble of Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory RCM (resolution 25 km) for northern Eurasia is used to drive hydrological model CaMa-Flood. Using this modeling framework, we evaluate the uncertainties in the future projection of the peak river discharge and flood hazard by 2050-2059 relative to 1990-1999 under IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. Large ensemble size, along with reasonably high modeling resolution, allows one to efficiently sample natural climate variability and increase our ability to predict future changes in the hydrological extremes. It has been shown that the annual maximum river discharge can almost double by the mid-XXI century in the outlets of major Siberian rivers. In the western regions, there is a weak signal in the river discharge and flood hazard, hardly discernible above climate variability. Annual maximum flood area is projected to increase across Siberia mostly by 2-5% relative to the baseline period. A contribution of natural climate variability at different temporal scales to the uncertainty of ensemble prediction is discussed. The analysis shows that there expected considerable changes in the extreme river discharge probability at locations of the key hydropower facilities. This suggests that the extensive impact studies are required to develop recommendations for maintaining regional energy security.

  16. Hydrologic impacts of climate change on the Nile River basin: Implications of the 2007 IPCC climate scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beyene, T.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P.

    2010-01-01

    We assess the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Nile River basin using a macroscale hydrology model. Model inputs are bias corrected and spatially downscaled 21st Century simulations from 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two global emissions

  17. Regulating knowledge monopolies: the case of the IPCC

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tol, R.S.J.

    2011-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has a monopoly on the provision of climate policy advice at the international level and a strong market position in national policy advice. This may have been the intention of the founders of the IPCC. I argue that the IPCC has a natural monopoly, as a

  18. IPCC's Climate Communication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Almlund, Pernille

    reports. This paper is based on a wonder of why the IPCC’s analysis and reports are not, to a higher degree, based on social science and human science. Are these scientific perspectives with many different approaches not important to this global political awareness of climate change? Especially now when...... all the IPCC’s assessment report have concluded that climate changes are human made and recently stated that 97 % of all climate researchers agree in that conclusion. Due to the theoretical work of Michel Callon, Lascoumes and Barthe (2011) and their ANT perspective, climate change can be observed...

  19. IPCC SRES revisited: a response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Gruebler, A.; Gaffin, S.

    2003-01-01

    This article gives details of the response to the criticism of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and of some aspects of IPCC assessments. The criticism claims that market exchange rates (MER) were used instead of purchasing power parities (PPP) and that scenarios using Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in developing regions were flawed. Points raised in the response included that scenarios of GDP growth are typically expressed as MER, that the IPCC scenarios did include PPP-based scenarios, and that long-term emissions are based on more than just economic growth

  20. The IPCC fights back and wins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anon.

    1996-07-01

    Controversy surrounding the ``Science of Climate Change 1995`` report of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group 1 is discussed. The final version of chapter 8 of the report was not identical to the chapter 8 which was analysed by the Working Group 1 at their meeting in Madrid in November 1995. The published document led to the conclusion that ``the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate``. However, it seemed to have missed out statements in the report as presented at Madrid that suggested some caution amongst the panel of experts over this conclusion. This has been taken by the industry lobby group, the Global Climate Coalition, and others to indicate an attempt by the IPCC to give greater weight than actually exists to the agreement between scientists that human activities are indeed causing global warming. The IPCC have countered these charges by pointing out that a draft report was circulated for the Madrid meeting and that the subsequent final version was modified in accordance with guidance received at the meeting. The World Energy Council`s analysis of the report suggests that far from painting too pessimistic a picture it is, if anything, too optimistic and should have been more aggressive in proposing solutions. (UK)

  1. Impact of Climate Change on India's Monsoonal Climate: Present ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Expected Future Changes in Rainfall and Temperature over India under IPCC SRES A1B GHG Scenarios · Expected Future Change in Monsoon Rainfall and Annual Surface Temp for 2020's, 2050's and 2080's · Likely Future Paradox of Monsoon-ENSO Links · High-Resolution Regional Climate Change Scenarios.

  2. Academies of science supports the IPCC; Vitenskapsakademier stoetter FNs klimapanel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seip, Hans Martin

    2011-07-01

    In 2010, a number of science academies considered how serious climate change is and what should be done. The main conclusions are highly coherent and in line with the IPCC. The effects of climate change will include: rise in sea level, health - because of large variations in temperature; ocean acidification, biological systems will change and the economic skewed distribution in the world will increase - the poor getting poorer. (AG)

  3. Certainties and probabilities of the IPCC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Based on an analysis of information about the climate evolution, simulations of a global warming and the snow coverage monitoring of Meteo-France, the IPCC presented its certainties and probabilities concerning the greenhouse effect. (A.L.B.)

  4. Mudanças na circulação atmosférica sobre a América do Sul para cenários futuros de clima projetados pelos modelos globais do IPCC AR4 Changes in the atmospheric circulation pattern over South America in future climate scenarios derived from the IPCC AR4 model climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María C Valverde

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Neste trabalho são analisadas as mudanças no padrão de circulação que possam vir a acontecer no clima da América do Sul (AS, como conseqüência do aumento nas concentrações dos gases de efeito estufa. Para isto utilizam-se cinco modelos globais do IPCC AR4 (CCCMA, GFDL, HadCM3, MIROC e GISS, para o clima do século XX (1961-1990 - 20C3M e para o cenário futuro SRES_A2 (2011-2100. As características em comum que os modelos apresentaram (a exceção do MIROC para as três climatologias futuras (2011-2040, 2041-2070 e 2071-2100, principalmente, no verão e na primavera, foram o deslocamento da baixa continental (associada à baixa do Chaco para o sudoeste da sua posição climatológica (1961-1990, e da Alta da Bolívia para o noroeste. Além disso, os cinco modelos simularam, para o clima presente, uma Alta do Pacífico Sul (APS menos intensa em relação à Reanálise do NCEP, sugerindo menor subsidência sobre a sua região de atuação. Para cenários futuros os modelos GISS e HadCM3 simularam a APS menos intensa. Por outro lado, para a alta do Atlântico Sul, não existiu um consenso nos modelos. Em geral foi simulada mais intensa (a exceção do GISS, sobretudo no outono e no inverno. O modelo HadCM3 simulou a circulação de verão e primavera mais próxima à Reanálise, com uma ZCAS melhor definida, e uma área menor de anomalias negativas de chuva sobre a Amazônia, em relação aos outros modelos. Já para o cenário futuro este modelo modificou seu padrão de chuvas, e anomalias positivas, sobre a costa norte do Peru e Equador, e negativas sobre o Nordeste e leste da Amazônia, foram observadas, associadas a uma APS enfraquecida e deslocada para o sul, o que reforçou a ZCIT do Pacífico sobre 5ºS. Uma diminuição da convergência de umidade sobre a Amazônia também foi observada.In this paper changes in the atmospheric circulation that may occur in the South America (SA as a consequence of climate change were studied for

  5. IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2001-01-01

    This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

  6. Treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC: a philosophical analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jebeile, J.; Drouet, I.

    2014-12-01

    The IPCC produces scientific reports out of findings on climate and climate change. Because the findings are uncertain in many respects, the production of reports requires aggregating assessments of uncertainties of different kinds. This difficult task is currently regulated by the Guidance note for lead authors of the IPCC fifth assessment report on consistent treatment of uncertainties. The note recommends that two metrics—i.e. confidence and likelihood— be used for communicating the degree of certainty in findings. Confidence is expressed qualitatively "based on the type, amount, quality, and consistency of evidence […] and the degree of agreement", while likelihood is expressed probabilistically "based on statistical analysis of observations or model results, or expert judgment". Therefore, depending on the evidence evaluated, authors have the choice to present either an assigned level of confidence or a quantified measure of likelihood. But aggregating assessments of uncertainties of these two different kinds express distinct and conflicting methodologies. So the question arises whether the treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC is rationally justified. In order to answer the question, it is worth comparing the IPCC procedures with the formal normative theories of epistemic rationality which have been developed by philosophers. These theories—which include contributions to the philosophy of probability and to bayesian probabilistic confirmation theory—are relevant for our purpose because they are commonly used to assess the rationality of common collective jugement formation based on uncertain knowledge. In this paper we make the comparison and pursue the following objectives: i/we determine whether the IPCC confidence and likelihood can be compared with the notions of uncertainty targeted by or underlying the formal normative theories of epistemic rationality; ii/we investigate whether the formal normative theories of epistemic rationality justify

  7. Climate change: The necessary, the possible and the desirable Earth League climate statement on the implications for climate policy from the 5th IPCC Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rockström, Johan; Brasseur, Guy; Hoskins, Brian; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schellnhuber, John; Kabat, Pavel; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Gong, Peng; Schlosser, Peter; Máñez Costa, Maria; Humble, April; Eyre, Nick; Gleick, Peter; James, Rachel; Lucena, Andre; Masera, Omar; Moench, Marcus; Schaeffer, Roberto; Seitzinger, Sybil; van der Leeuw, Sander; Ward, Bob; Stern, Nicholas; Hurrell, James; Srivastava, Leena; Morgan, Jennifer; Nobre, Carlos; Sokona, Youba; Cremades, Roger; Roth, Ellinor; Liverman, Diana; Arnott, James

    2014-12-01

    The development of human civilisations has occurred at a time of stable climate. This climate stability is now threatened by human activity. The rising global climate risk occurs at a decisive moment for world development. World nations are currently discussing a global development agenda consequent to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which ends in 2015. It is increasingly possible to envisage a world where absolute poverty is largely eradicated within one generation and where ambitious goals on universal access and equal opportunities for dignified lives are adopted. These grand aspirations for a world population approaching or even exceeding nine billion in 2050 is threatened by substantial global environmental risks and by rising inequality. Research shows that development gains, in both rich and poor nations, can be undermined by social, economic and ecological problems caused by human-induced global environmental change. Climate risks, and associated changes in marine and terrestrial ecosystems that regulate the resilience of the climate system, are at the forefront of these global risks. We, as citizens with a strong engagement in Earth system science and socio-ecological dynamics, share the vision of a more equitable and prosperous future for the world, yet we also see threats to this future from shifts in climate and environmental processes. Without collaborative action now, our shared Earth system may not be able to sustainably support a large proportion of humanity in the decades ahead.

  8. Possible future climates. The IPCC-scenarios simulated by dialogue

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoekstra, J [KEMA-KES, Arnheim (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    Global warming is an environmental problem that increasingly attracts the attention of governments, (inter)national organizations and the general public. Policymakers that want to attack this problem need to understand the causes and effects of all related aspects. For this reason integrated assessment tools are developed that allow policymakers to analyze and evaluate climate change scenarios. Dialogue is such an integrated assessment tool. This article presents the results of Dialogue when the socio-economic parameters of the six well-known IPCC-scenarios, IS92a-f (IPCC 1992) are taken as a point of departure. Using as input, variables as population growth and the energy intensity of an economy, Dialogue goes through a chain of processes and finally determines climatic changes in temperature and precipitation

  9. Possible future climates. The IPCC-scenarios simulated by dialogue

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoekstra, J. [KEMA-KES, Arnheim (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    Global warming is an environmental problem that increasingly attracts the attention of governments, (inter)national organizations and the general public. Policymakers that want to attack this problem need to understand the causes and effects of all related aspects. For this reason integrated assessment tools are developed that allow policymakers to analyze and evaluate climate change scenarios. Dialogue is such an integrated assessment tool. This article presents the results of Dialogue when the socio-economic parameters of the six well-known IPCC-scenarios, IS92a-f (IPCC 1992) are taken as a point of departure. Using as input, variables as population growth and the energy intensity of an economy, Dialogue goes through a chain of processes and finally determines climatic changes in temperature and precipitation

  10. IPCC IS92 Emissions Scenarios (A, B, C, D, E, F) Dataset Version 1.1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) IS92 Emissions Scenarios (A, B, C, D, E, F) Dataset Version 1.1 consists of six global and regional greenhouse...

  11. Report for fiscal 1999 on the international and fundamental cooperation project for energy consumption efficiency improvement and the international conference project such as IPCC. The meetings of IPCC specialists and IPCC symposiums; 1999 nendo kokusai energy shohi koritsuka nado kyoryoku kiso jigyo / IPCC nado kokusai kaigi jigyo. IPCC senmonka kaigo oyobi IPCC symposium hokokusho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-10-01

    This paper reports the meetings of specialists and the symposiums by the inter-governmental panels for climate change (IPCC) in fiscal 1999. Three working groups were established for evaluation on climate change from scientific aspects, evaluation on effects and countermeasures from socio-economic aspects, and evaluation on mitigation measures from socio-economic aspects. The working groups have started preparing the third evaluation reports. Common problems are handled in a unified framework as the traversable problems. Specialist meetings are held for several important themes. Especially for the cost problems, preparation of a guidance paper has started, that include the costs and benefits by territories and departments. The themes for the specialist meetings include: cost problems related to effects and countermeasures for climate change and mitigation measures; the IPCC activities for the cost evaluation in the past and an outline of the traversable problems; problems in effects, applicable measures, and mitigation measures; and unification of the cost evaluations. The themes for the symposiums are the frontier line of the climate change problems, and include the outline of IPCC, the current status and issues in the working groups and the special reports for each group. (NEDO)

  12. Maynard Participation in Alaska Forum on the Environment Panel Discussion on Increasing Input to the US National Climate Assessment (NCA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Processes from Alaska, with Emphasis on Indigenous Peoples Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynard, Nancy G.

    2012-01-01

    Dr. Nancy Maynard was invited by the Alaska Forum on the Environment to participate in a Panel Discussion to discuss (1) background about what the US NCA and International IPCC assessments are, (2) the impact the assessments have on policy-making, (3) the process for participation in both assessments, (4) how we can increase participation by Indigenous Peoples such as Native Americans and Alaska Natives, (5) How we can increase historical and current impacts input from Native communities through stories, oral history, "grey" literature, etc. The session will be chaired by Dr. Bull Bennett, a cochair of the US NCA's chapter on "Native and Tribal Lands and Resources" and Dr. Maynard is the other co-chair of that chapter and they will discuss the latest activities under the NCA process relevant to Native Americans and Alaska Natives. Dr. Maynard is also a Lead Author of the "Polar Regions" chapter of the IPCC WG2 (5th Assessment) and she will describes some of the latest approaches by the IPCC to entrain more Indigenous peoples into the IPCC process.

  13. Projections of summertime ozone concentration over East Asia under multiple IPCC SRES emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jae-Bum; Cha, Jun-Seok; Hong, Sung-Chul; Choi, Jin-Young; Myoung, Ji-Su; Park, Rokjin J.; Woo, Jung-Hun; Ho, Changhoi; Han, Jin-Seok; Song, Chang-Keun

    2015-04-01

    We have developed the Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System (ICAMS) through the one-way nesting of global-regional models to examine the changes in the surface ozone concentrations over East Asia under future climate scenarios. Model simulations have been conducted for the present period of 1996-2005 to evaluate the performance of ICAMS. The simulated surface ozone concentrations reproduced the observed monthly mean concentrations at sites in East Asia with high R2 values (0.4-0.9), indicating a successful simulation to capture both spatial and temporal variability. We then performed several model simulations with the six IPCC SRES scenarios (A2, A1B, A1FI, A1T, B1, and B2) for the next three periods, 2016-2025 (the 2020s), 2046-2055 (the 2050s), and 2091-2100 (the 2090s). The model results show that the projected changes of the annual daily mean maximum eight-hour (DM8H) surface ozone concentrations in summertime for East Asia are in the range of 2-8 ppb, -3 to 8 ppb, and -7 to 9 ppb for the 2020s, the 2050s, and the 2090s, respectively, and are primarily determined based on the emission changes of NOx and NMVOC. The maximum increases in the annual DM8H surface ozone and high-ozone events occur in the 2020s for all scenarios except for A2, implying that the air quality over East Asia is likely to get worse in the near future period (the 2020s) than in the far future periods (the 2050s and the 2090s). The changes in the future environment based on IPCC SRES scenarios would also influence the change in the occurrences of high-concentrations events more greatly than that of the annual DM8H surface ozone concentrations. Sensitivity simulations show that the emissions increase is the key factor in determining future regional surface ozone concentrations in the case of a developing country, China, whereas a developed country, Japan would be influenced more greatly by effects of the regional climate change than the increase in emissions.

  14. Greenhouse gas emissions from managed peat soils: is the IPCC reporting guidance realistic?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Couwenberg

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Drainage of peatlands leads to the decomposition of peat, resulting in substantial losses of carbon and nitrogen to the atmosphere. The conservation and restoration of peatlands can provide a major contribution to the mitigation of climate change. Improvements to guidance and capacity for reporting of greenhouse gas emissions from peatlands will be valuable in the context of the current negotiations towards a post-2012 climate agreement. This article evaluates IPCC approaches to greenhouse gas emissions from managed organic (peat soils and presents a summary table comparing IPCC default values with best estimates based on recent literature. Inconsistencies are pointed out with regard to the IPCC definitions of organic soils and climate zones. The 2006 IPCC Guidelines use a definition of organic soil that is not totally consistent with FAO definitions, use climate zones that are not fully compatible, present default CO2 values that are substantially (often an order of magnitude too low, and present a default N2O value for tropical cropland that is also an order of magnitude too low. An update of IPCC default values is desirable. The IPCC Emission Factor Database offers a platform for establishing more accurate emission factors, but so far contains little information about emissions from peat soils.

  15. IPCC. 4. climate assessment report, 2007; GIEC. 4. rapport d'evaluation du climat, 2007

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    The mission and challenge of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC, GIEC in French) is to evaluate, synthesize and make available the sum of scientific and economic information of the complex domain of climatic change, and in addition to make the results of these works accepted by government representatives of 192 states. This document makes a brief synthesis in three parts of the 4. assessment report of the IPCC: 1 - physical scientific bases of climatic change: characteristic of the phenomenon, greenhouse gas emissions trend, already observed effects, forecasts of climate models; 2 - impacts, adaptations and vulnerabilities of climatic change: types of future impacts, impacts per sector, regional impacts, limits of ecosystems adaptation; 3 - mitigation of climatic changes: past emissions and future trends, possible mitigation actions and cost, possible political levers for emissions abatement. A last part introduces the French researchers involved in IPCC's works. (J.S.)

  16. Finding facts for policy makers. IPCC's Special Reports and the Third Assessment Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leemans, R.; Verbeek, K.

    2000-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an international body of the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) and UNEP (United Nations Environmental Programme) that publishes authoritative reports on the scientific, technical and socio-economic aspects of climate change and climate policy. The knowledge contained in the IPCC reports forms the basis for the development of global climate policy by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The three volumes of the Third Assessment Report will be published early in 2001, shortly after Cop6 (Sixth Convention of Parties, The Hague, Netherlands, November 2000). This broadly supported summary of scientific insights will be important for the further substantiation of climate policy

  17. Bad weather for the IPCC: from Nobel price to affairs, rise and fall of climate experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dubuis, E.

    2010-01-01

    The intergovernmental panel on climate change, IPCC, or GIEC in French, has become in 20 years one of the most influent organization in the world. Awarded by the Nobel price of peace in 2007, this expression of the United Nations has succeeded in setting the fight against global warming at the top of the international political agenda, in particular during the 2009 Copenhagen meeting. What are the keys of this success? The IPCC has announced a global warming with disastrous effects, where floods would combine with dryness periods, epidemics and other natural disasters. Such a dark picture cannot leave anyone indifferent and allows the IPCC to encourage the humanity to drastically change its consumption habits and limit its way of life. However, to raise such fears and ask for such sacrifices, an organization like the IPCC must be irreproachable. And here is the problem reported in this book: the IPCC has shown its weaknesses, has made mistakes, has used unappropriated methods and miscasting personnel, has been uncapable to explain the complexness of the climate question and has felt reticent about the recognition of its mistakes. Revealed between fall 2009 and winter 2010, these failures have shaken the credibility of the organization to such a point that the UN requested an expertise to judge its own experts. (J.S.)

  18. A Carbon Cycle Science Update Since IPCC AR-4

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dolman, A.J.; Werf, van der G.R.; Molen, van der M.K.; Ganssen, G.; Erisman, J.W.; Strengers, B.

    2010-01-01

    We review important advances in our understanding of the global carbon cycle since the publication of the IPCC AR4. We conclude that: the anthropogenic emissions of CO2 due to fossil fuel burning have increased up through 2008 at a rate near to the high end of the IPCC emission scenarios; there are

  19. Analyse af IPCC delrapport 2 - Effekter, klimatilpasning og sårbarhed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Grindsted, Aslak

    . Med afsæt i denne delrapport er der udarbejdet en dansk analyse, der nærmere beskriver effekterne af et ændret klima i Danmark suppleret med den seneste danske forskning udført af det danske Center for Regional Changes in the Earth System (CRES). ”Analyse af IPCC delrapport 2 – Effekter...

  20. Twitter Campaigns Around the Fifth IPCC Report: Campaign Spreading, Shared Hashtags, and Separate Communities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holmberg, K.; Hellsten, I.

    2016-01-01

    In this article, we analyzed campaigning on Twitter around the publication of the fifth Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group 1 report in September, 2013. In particular, we analyzed how participation in a specific campaign and use of hashtags connected to the campaign

  1. Rainfall and its seasonality over the Amazon in the 21st century as assessed by the coupled models for the IPCC AR4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wenhong; Fu, Rong; Dickinson, Robert E.

    2006-01-01

    The global climate models for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) predict very different changes of rainfall over the Amazon under the SRES A1B scenario for global climate change. Five of the eleven models predict an increase of annual rainfall, three models predict a decrease of rainfall, and the other three models predict no significant changes in the Amazon rainfall. We have further examined two models. The UKMO-HadCM3 model predicts an El Niño-like sea surface temperature (SST) change and warming in the northern tropical Atlantic which appear to enhance atmospheric subsidence and consequently reduce clouds over the Amazon. The resultant increase of surface solar absorption causes a stronger surface sensible heat flux and thus reduces relative humidity of the surface air. These changes decrease the rate and length of wet season rainfall and surface latent heat flux. This decreased wet season rainfall leads to drier soil during the subsequent dry season, which in turn can delay the transition from the dry to wet season. GISS-ER predicts a weaker SST warming in the western Pacific and the southern tropical Atlantic which increases moisture transport and hence rainfall in the Amazon. In the southern Amazon and Nordeste where the strongest rainfall increase occurs, the resultant higher soil moisture supports a higher surface latent heat flux during the dry and transition season and leads to an earlier wet season onset.

  2. Patterns of authorship in the IPCC Working Group III report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbera, Esteve; Calvet-Mir, Laura; Hughes, Hannah; Paterson, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has completed its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Here, we explore the social scientific networks informing Working Group III (WGIII) assessment of mitigation for the AR5. Identifying authors’ institutional pathways, we highlight the persistence and extent of North-South inequalities in the authorship of the report, revealing the dominance of US and UK institutions as training sites for WGIII authors. Examining patterns of co-authorship between WGIII authors, we identify the unevenness in co-authoring relations, with a small number of authors co-writing regularly and indicative of an epistemic community’s influence over the IPCC’s definition of mitigation. These co-authoring networks follow regional patterns, with significant EU-BRICS collaboration and authors from the US relatively insular. From a disciplinary perspective, economists, engineers, physicists and natural scientists remain central to the process, with insignificant participation of scholars from the humanities. The shared training and career paths made apparent through our analysis suggest that the idea that broader geographic participation may lead to a wider range of viewpoints and cultural understandings of climate change mitigation may not be as sound as previously thought.

  3. Reconstruction of the boundary between climate science and politics: the IPCC in the Japanese mass media, 1988-2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asayama, Shinichiro; Ishii, Atsushi

    2014-02-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) plays a significant role in bridging the boundary between climate science and politics. Media coverage is crucial for understanding how climate science is communicated and embedded in society. This study analyzes the discursive construction of the IPCC in three Japanese newspapers from 1988 to 2007 in terms of the science-politics boundary. The results show media discourses engaged in boundary-work which rhetorically separated science and politics, and constructed the iconic image of the IPCC as a pure scientific authority. In the linkages between the global and national arenas of climate change, the media "domesticate" the issue, translating the global nature of climate change into a discourse that suits the national context. We argue that the Japanese media's boundary-work is part of the media domestication that reconstructed the boundary between climate science and politics reflecting the Japanese context.

  4. Climate in Peril. A popular guide to the latest IPCC reports

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2009-07-01

    In 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shared the Nobel Peace Prize with former US Vice President Al Gore for their work to provide policy makers and the general public around the world with the best possible science base for understanding and combating the increasing threat from climate change. But as the messages from the scientists are becoming increasingly explicit, the gap between the need for action they project and the climate policy the world leaders put in place is steadily increasing. One illustration is the trend in emissions of greenhouse gases. According to the IPCC global emissions would need to peak between 2000 and 2015 in order to limit the global temperature increase to between 2 and 2.4 degrees C compared to pre-industrial times. In 2007, when ideally the emissions should have peaked, the world instead experienced a new record in annual emission increase. For each day we fail to twist development towards a low-carbon society, the damage to the world's ecosystems become more severe, and the costs of mitigation and adaptation increases. The main purpose of this short guide is to help bridging the gap between science and policy and to increase public awareness about the urgency of action to combat climate change and its impacts. This booklet is intended for those who do not have the time - and may not have the scientific expertise - to read the entire Synthesis Report from the IPCC. (Author)

  5. A comparative analysis of methodology for inventory of greenhouse gases emissions - IPCC and CORINAIR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasilev, Kh.

    1998-01-01

    The inventory of greenhouse gases (GHG) is performed by two accepted methods - CORINAIR (of EU) and IPCC (of UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes). The first one is applied only in European countries, the second is conformable to GHG emissions from all over the world. The versions IPCC-95 and CORINAIR94 are compared from theoretical and methodological point of view. In Bulgaria the version CORINAIR95 is not applied yet and the inventory analysis for 1994 uses CORINAIR90. The emissions of main GHG and gases-precursors are compared. The main elements of inventory are analyzed. The values recommended by CORINAIR94 are taken into account. A table for accordance between the two methods is used. The differences concerning transport vehicles are taken into account also. Differences between the two methods are noticed in the following directions: nomenclature of the activities emitting GHG; organization of the inventory guides; kind of the activities and technologies included. The qualitative comparison are done for energy sector and for industry separately. The results show too big differences in the volume of the emitted GHG and the reasons could be classified as methodological ones and differences in the kind and values of the emission coefficients. For their determining standard values for Eastern Europe from IPCC guide have been applied as well as data from experimental investigations. Respectively, in the method CORINAIR emission coefficients CORINAIR90 are used. The differences between the emission coefficients determined in the two methods are as big as twice or even more for CO at solid fuels, i.g. at energy production; as big as three times at NO x and up to twenty times at methane also at solid fuels. The two methods do not read the emissions of gases-precursors at some industrial processes. This disadvantage is overcome at IPCC96 and it is necessary to complement the emission coefficients in the data base, especially for gases-precursors regarding the

  6. A brief history of adaptation: conceptual evolution across the IPCC reports (1990-2014)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simonet, Guillaume

    2015-01-01

    In the past decade, work on the concepts of vulnerability, resilience and adaptation became central in climate change literature. At the same time a growing number of studies have focussed on the influence of cognitive factors on decision-making processes, such as interpreting elusive concepts such as adaptation. Comprehension of adaptation has evolved considerably since its recognition as a response to climate change in the 90's by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently protecting systems from weather events (the 'adjustment adaptation' approach) is still the prevailing view in climate policies. Nevertheless, a shift toward a 'transformation adaptation' approach is being observed. This position would take better account of the complexity of existing systems and allow reexamining their mechanisms (institutional, technical, financial). This paper aims to analyze conceptual advances on adaptation across the five IPCC reports from 1990 to 2014. This contribution attempts to show that the prominence given to adaptation in the latest report (2014) reflects the cognitive difficulty of conceiving this concept, responds to the growing demand to facilitate its operationalization and confirms its relevance for a better understanding of the underlying complexity of climate change and the global environmental change issue. Pursuing reflection on the adaptation concept should certainly contribute to the emergence of a promising and interdisciplinary field of research

  7. IPCC workshop on socio-economic scenarios. Workshop report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edenhofer, O.; Pichs-Madruga, R.; Sokona, Y. (and others)

    2012-07-01

    The goal of the IPCC Workshop on Socio-Economic Scenarios (WoSES) was to facilitate the development of socioeconomic narratives and pathways by the integrated assessment modelling, impacts, and adaptation communities. Describing these pathways and narratives is a core step to analyzing the interdependent issues of adaptation and mitigation in an integrated manner. The Workshop participants agreed that structured and consistent assessments of possible future impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation would benefit from using shared qualitative narrative and quantitative descriptions of potential socioeconomic and ecosystem reference conditions that underlie challenges to mitigation and adaptation. These descriptions should be flexible enough to provide a framework for comparison within which regional or local studies of adaptation and vulnerability could build their own narratives. The defining socioeconomic conditions of these scenarios are designated Shared Socioeconomic reference Pathways (SSPs). The SSPs define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale and have two elements: a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate change. This assumption defines the SSPs as a baseline independent of climate change projections. The set of SSPs was chosen to characterize the range of uncertainty in mitigation efforts required to achieve particular radiative forcing pathways, in adaptation efforts that could be undertaken to prepare for and respond to the climate change associated with those pathways, and in residual impacts. This will allow assessment of scenarios along two axes: socioeconomic challenges to mitigation, and socioeconomic challenges to adaptation. This conceptualization of SSPs allows them to be combined with different degrees of anthropogenic interference with the climate system (measured in terms of

  8. The tragedy of global warming: From the fifth IPCC report to the 2015 Paris Climate Conference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auverlot, Dominique

    2015-01-01

    Reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) always signal a new step in the fight against climate change. The first report, in 1990, led to the adoption of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change during the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro. The second one, released in 1996, prepared the way for the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. The third, in 2000, emphasized 'adaptation', an idea taken up during subsequent negotiations. The fourth report in 2007 made a step toward setting at 2 deg. C the maximum increase in temperature and opened the way to the non-binding Copenhagen Accord and then to Cancun. What consequences will the fifth IPCC report of October 2014 have? Will it help finalize the Paris agreement? Or will it be considered to be one report too many - repeating what has oft been stated over the last twenty years? Before replying, the major points raised in this report are discussed; and questions, asked about some of the conclusions. Lessons are drawn for the worldwide agreement on the table in Paris

  9. Long-term simulation of temporal change of soil organic carbon in Denmark: comparison of three model performances under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Öztürk, Isik; Sharif, Behzad; Santhome, Sanmohan

    2018-01-01

    The temporal change in soil organic carbon (SOC) was analysed over an 80-year period based on climate change predictions of four regional circulation models under the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario in the 21st century. A 20-year (1991–2010) set of observed...... to the total variance of random variation was quantified. Statistical analysis showed that the crop-soil models are the main source for uncertainty in analysing soil C and N responses to climate change....

  10. ON THE PAUSED WARMING CONTROVERSY BASED ON IPCC AR5 AND BEYOND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MIKA J.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The paused warming since ca. 2002 (maybe, 1998 is not satisfactorily reflected by the IPCC WGI (2013 Report. The aim of the present study is to collect, present and discuss the key arguments of the issue, selected strictly from this valuable Report. Our study tackles three aspects: (i Symptoms of pausing, including atmospheric changes, near-surface oceans, cryosphere and geographical differences. (ii Possible reasons of the paused warming, including external forcing factors, playing rather minor role, and the enhanced ocean heat uptake. Though missing warming is 0.2 K/decade compared to the model expectations, the whole climate system integrates continuously increasing amount of heat, 95 % of which is locked in the oceans. (iii Consequences of the pausing for the three main branches of the IPCC activity. For climate science, correct simulation of the enhanced heat uptake is a challenge. Since characteristic time scale of most adaptation measures is 1-2 decades, or shorter, near-term projections may not drive adaptation until climate models become able meet this challenge. On the other hand, pausing warming does not question the need for mitigation, since it is physically unlikely, that oceans can uptake endless amount of heat. Vertical temperature gradients of the upper ocean layers already show stagnation.

  11. Dynamics of combined forest damage risks for 21st century (SRES A1B, B1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panferov, Oleg; Merklein, Johannes; Sogachev, Andrey; Junghans, Udo; Ahrends, Bernd

    2010-05-01

    The ongoing climate change can result in increasing frequency of weather extremes (Leckebusch et al., 2008) which in turn can produce wide area forest damage (windthrows, droughts, insect attacks) within forest ecosystems in Europe. The probability and extent of damage, depend not only on a strength of a driving force itself but especially on combinations of effecting agents and their interactions with forest ecosystem structure and soil properties. The combined effect of several factors which are not the extremes themselves can lead to the biotic and/or abiotic damage so that the combination becomes an extreme event. As soon as a damage event occurs, the forest structure is changed. The changes in forest structure in their turn strengthen or inhibits the influence of different climatic factors thus increase or decrease the probability of the next damage event creating positive or negative feedbacks. To assess the roles of separate meteorological factors and their combinations in forest damage under present and future climatic conditions the coupled model was created in University of Goettingen, as a part of a Decision Support System (Jansen et al, 2008, Panferov et al., 2009). The model combines the 3D ABL Model SCADIS (Panferov and Sogachev, 2008) with modified soil hydrology model BROOK 90 (Federer, 2003, Ahrends et al. 2009) and the model of climate dependent biotic damage. The projected future developments of forest damage events in 21st Century were carried out under conditions of SRES scenarios A1B and B1; the present conditions were evaluated using the measured data of German Weather Service. Climate scenario data of coupled ECHAM5-MPIOM were downscaled by the regional climate model Climate Local Model (CLM) to the spatial resolution of 0.2° x 0.2° and temporal resolution of 24 hours. Using these data as input the small-scale coupled process based modeling was then carried out for example region of Solling, Germany calculating the water and energy balance

  12. Geoethics: IPCC disgraced by violation of observational facts and physical laws in their sea level scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mörner, Nils-Axel

    2014-05-01

    the order of 0.4o C. The improved ARGO measurements starting 2004 give virtually no change, however. The physically possible amount of expansion decreases, of course, with the decreasing water columns towards the coasts, and at the coasts it is zero (±0.0 mm). The redistribution of water masses in response to the Earth's rotation, surface current beat, wind stress, air pressure, etc. is an important factor. It gives local to regional changes, cancelled out on the global scale, however. From a geoethical point of view, it is of course quite blameworthy that IPCC excels in spreading these horror scenarios of a rapid, even accelerating, sea level rise. Besides, modern understanding of the planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction shows that we are now on our way into grand solar minimum with severely colder climate - that is just the opposite to IPCC's talk about an accelerating warming. In science we should debate - but we should not dictate (as IPCC insist upon), and it is here the perspectives of geoethics comes into the picture.

  13. IPCC workshop on impacts of ocean acidification on marine biology and ecosystems. Workshop report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Field, C.B.; Barros, V.; Stocker, T.F.; Dahe, Q.; Mach, K.J.; Plattner, G.-K.; Mastrandrea, M.D.; Tignor, M.; Ebi, K.L.

    2011-09-15

    Understanding the effects of increasing atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations on ocean chemistry, commonly termed ocean acidification, as well as associated impacts on marine biology and ecosystems, is an important component of scientific knowledge about global change. The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will include comprehensive coverage of ocean acidification and its impacts, including potential feedbacks to the climate system. To support ongoing AR5 assessment efforts, Working Group II and Working Group I (WGII and WGI) of the IPCC held a joint Workshop on Impacts of Ocean Acidification on Marine Biology and Ecosystems in Okinawa, Japan, from 17 to 19 January 2011. The workshop convened experts from the scientific community, including WGII and WGI AR5 authors and review editors, to synthesise scientific understanding of changes in ocean chemistry due to increased CO{sub 2} and of impacts of this changing chemistry on marine organisms, ecosystems, and ecosystem services. This workshop report summarises the scientific content and perspectives presented and discussed during the workshop. It provides syntheses of these perspectives for the workshop's core topics: (i) the changing chemistry of the oceans, (ii) impacts of ocean acidification for individual organisms, and (iii) scaling up responses from individual organisms to ecosystems. It also presents summaries of workshop discussions of key cross-cutting themes, ranging from detection and attribution of ocean acidification and its impacts to understanding ocean acidification in the context of other stressors on marine systems. Additionally, the workshop report includes extended abstracts for keynote and poster presentations at the workshop. (Author)

  14. A carbon cycle science update since IPCC AR-4.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolman, A J; van der Werf, G R; van der Molen, M K; Ganssen, G; Erisman, J-W; Strengers, B

    2010-01-01

    We review important advances in our understanding of the global carbon cycle since the publication of the IPCC AR4. We conclude that: the anthropogenic emissions of CO2 due to fossil fuel burning have increased up through 2008 at a rate near to the high end of the IPCC emission scenarios; there are contradictory analyses whether an increase in atmospheric fraction, that might indicate a declining sink strength of ocean and/or land, exists; methane emissions are increasing, possibly through enhanced natural emission from northern wetland, methane emissions from dry plants are negligible; old-growth forest take up more carbon than expected from ecological equilibrium reasoning; tropical forest also take up more carbon than previously thought, however, for the global budget to balance, this would imply a smaller uptake in the northern forest; the exchange fluxes between the atmosphere and ocean are increasingly better understood and bottom up and observation-based top down estimates are getting closer to each other; the North Atlantic and Southern ocean take up less CO2, but it is unclear whether this is part of the 'natural' decadal scale variability; large-scale fires and droughts, for instance in Amazonia, but also at Northern latitudes, have lead to significant decreases in carbon uptake on annual timescales; the extra uptake of CO2 stimulated by increased N-deposition is, from a greenhouse gas forcing perspective, counterbalanced by the related additional N2O emissions; the amount of carbon stored in permafrost areas appears much (two times) larger than previously thought; preservation of existing marine ecosystems could require a CO2 stabilization as low as 450 ppm; Dynamic Vegetation Models show a wide divergence for future carbon trajectories, uncertainty in the process description, lack of understanding of the CO2 fertilization effect and nitrogen-carbon interaction are major uncertainties.

  15. Evaluation of LLTR Series II tests A-1A and A-1B test results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shoopak, B.F.; Amos, J.C.; Norvell, T.J.

    1980-03-01

    The standard methodology, with minor modifications provides conservative yet realistic predictions of leaksite and other sodium system pressures in the LLTR Series II vessel and piping. The good agreement between predicted and measured pressures indicates that the TRANSWRAP/RELAP modeling developed from the Series I tests is applicable to larger scale units prototypical of the Clinch River steam generator design. Calculated sodium system pressures are sensitive to several modeling parameters including rupture disc modeling, acoustic velocity in the test vessel, and flow rate from the rupture tube. The acoustic velocity which produced best agreement with leaksite pressures was calculated based on the shroud diameter and shroud wall thickness. The corresponding rupture tube discharge coefficient was that of the standard design methodology developed from Series I testing. As found in Series I testing, the Series II data suggests that the leading edge of the flow in the relief line is two phase for a single, doubled-ended guillotine tube rupture. The steam generator shroud acts as if it is relatively transparent to the transmission of radial pressures to the vessel wall. Slightly lower sodium system maximum pressures measured during Test A-1b compared to Test A-1a are attributed to premature failure (failure at a lower pressure) of the rupture disc in contact with the sodium for test A-1b. The delay in failure of the second disc in Test A-1b, which was successfully modeled with TRANSWRAP, is attributed to the limited energy in the nitrogen injection

  16. Progress report: The Energy and Industry Subgroup of IPCC Working Group III

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yokobori, Keiichi

    1990-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in November 1988 under the joint auspices of UNEP and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Working Group III, or the Response Strategies Working Group (RSWG), was established to formulate strategies to respond to challenges arising from global climate warming. The Energy and Industry Subgroup (EIS) was created by the RSWG at its meeting in January-February 1989 to facilitate the formulation of strategies to control, i.e. prevent or reduce, the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as CO 2 , CFCs, NO 2 , CH, etc. The following article gives a brief summary of EIS activities, based mainly on records of discussion at the relevant meetings. (author). 1 tab

  17. Global Water Cycle Agreement in the Climate Models Assessed in the IPCC AR4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waliser, D.; Seo, K. -W.; Schubert, S.; Njoku, E.

    2007-01-01

    This study examines the fidelity of the global water cycle in the climate model simulations assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The results demonstrate good model agreement in quantities that have had a robust global observational basis and that are physically unambiguous. The worst agreement occurs for quantities that have both poor observational constraints and whose model representations can be physically ambiguous. In addition, components involving water vapor (frozen water) typically exhibit the best (worst) agreement, and fluxes typically exhibit better agreement than reservoirs. These results are discussed in relation to the importance of obtaining accurate model representation of the water cycle and its role in climate change. Recommendations are also given for facilitating the needed model improvements.

  18. Report of the Joint IPCC WG 2 and 3 expert meeting on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the 4. IPCC assessment report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    The objectives for this meeting at Reunion Island were: - To feed new views from outside the climate change literature into the assessment of Working Group II (WG II) and WG III concerning the strongly interrelated area of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development. - to dove-tail zero-order draft texts of WG II and WG III (by the authors) with a view to ensuring that the treatment of Adaptation and Mitigation (AM) and Sustainable Development (SD) issues in both assessments is: 'Consistent, Complementary, Concise and Complete' ('4 Cs'). Furthermore, it was decided that the deliverable should be: - Recommendations for the writing team of WG II fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for incorporation of AM and SD issues in their First Order Draft (following their 2. Lead Author meeting in Cairns, 14-17 March 2005); - Recommendations for the writing team of WG III for incorporation in their Zero-order Draft (ZOD, to be completed 11 March 2005) The programme of the meeting was developed by the TSUs of WG II and III under the responsibility of the co-chairs of WG II and III. Day 1 the programme was devoted to a series of key note speakers, covering both potential user views as well as relevant new perspectives on the handling of AM and SD issues. These areas have not been fully addressed in the IPCC assessment work to date. The invited experts elaborated on 'new science areas' or 'new literatures' that inform parts of the AR4. The morning programme of Day 1 also contained an opening session featuring several ministers of Environment of neighbouring Small Island States, a representative of the European Parliament, and government officials from both the French Republic and Reunion Island. Day 2 and 3 were used for working sessions between authors on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the contributions of Working Groups II and III of the AR4. The full programme is attached to the document. The meeting brought together more than forty

  19. Report of the Joint IPCC WG 2 and 3 expert meeting on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the 4. IPCC assessment report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    The objectives for this meeting at Reunion Island were: - To feed new views from outside the climate change literature into the assessment of Working Group II (WG II) and WG III concerning the strongly interrelated area of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development. - to dove-tail zero-order draft texts of WG II and WG III (by the authors) with a view to ensuring that the treatment of Adaptation and Mitigation (AM) and Sustainable Development (SD) issues in both assessments is: 'Consistent, Complementary, Concise and Complete' ('4 Cs'). Furthermore, it was decided that the deliverable should be: - Recommendations for the writing team of WG II fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for incorporation of AM and SD issues in their First Order Draft (following their 2. Lead Author meeting in Cairns, 14-17 March 2005); - Recommendations for the writing team of WG III for incorporation in their Zero-order Draft (ZOD, to be completed 11 March 2005) The programme of the meeting was developed by the TSUs of WG II and III under the responsibility of the co-chairs of WG II and III. Day 1 the programme was devoted to a series of key note speakers, covering both potential user views as well as relevant new perspectives on the handling of AM and SD issues. These areas have not been fully addressed in the IPCC assessment work to date. The invited experts elaborated on 'new science areas' or 'new literatures' that inform parts of the AR4. The morning programme of Day 1 also contained an opening session featuring several ministers of Environment of neighbouring Small Island States, a representative of the European Parliament, and government officials from both the French Republic and Reunion Island. Day 2 and 3 were used for working sessions between authors on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the contributions of Working Groups II and III of the AR4. The full programme is attached to the document. The

  20. An inventory of nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture in the UK using the IPCC methodology: emission estimate, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, L.; Armstrong Brown, S.; Jarvis, S. C.; Syed, B.; Goulding, K. W. T.; Phillips, V. R.; Sneath, R. W.; Pain, B. F.

    Nitrous oxide emission from UK agriculture was estimated, using the IPCC default values of all emission factors and parameters, to be 87 Gg N 2O-N in both 1990 and 1995. This estimate was shown, however, to have an overall uncertainty of 62%. The largest component of the emission (54%) was from the direct (soil) sector. Two of the three emission factors applied within the soil sector, EF1 (direct emission from soil) and EF3 PRP (emission from pasture range and paddock) were amongst the most influential on the total estimate, producing a ±31 and +11% to -17% change in emissions, respectively, when varied through the IPCC range from the default value. The indirect sector (from leached N and deposited ammonia) contributed 29% of the total emission, and had the largest uncertainty (126%). The factors determining the fraction of N leached (Frac LEACH) and emissions from it (EF5), were the two most influential. These parameters are poorly specified and there is great potential to improve the emission estimate for this component. Use of mathematical models (NCYCLE and SUNDIAL) to predict Frac LEACH suggested that the IPCC default value for this parameter may be too high for most situations in the UK. Comparison with other UK-derived inventories suggests that the IPCC methodology may overestimate emission. Although the IPCC approach includes additional components to the other inventories (most notably emission from indirect sources), estimates for the common components (i.e. fertiliser and animals), and emission factors used, are higher than those of other inventories. Whilst it is recognised that the IPCC approach is generalised in order to allow widespread applicability, sufficient data are available to specify at least two of the most influential parameters, i.e. EF1 and Frac LEACH, more accurately, and so provide an improved estimate of nitrous oxide emissions from UK agriculture.

  1. Developed Countries 2020 Pledges Fall Short of IPCC Target What can we do

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guerin, E.; Colombier, M

    2009-07-01

    With the recent announcement by President Obama of the US emission reduction target, the map of developed countries pledges is now full. The US will come to Copenhagen with a -17% target in 2020 compared to 2005 levels that translates into a -4% compared to 1990 levels (together with a -42% target in 2030 that translates into a -33% compared to 1990. Some countries have put forward multiple pledges. They will only commit to the highest pledge if the Copenhagen agreement is deemed satisfactory. For example, the European Union (EU) stated it would move from -20% (the lower pledge) to -30% (the higher pledge) in 2020 compared to 1990 levels if developed countries undertake comparable emission cuts and if major developing countries undertake adequate mitigation actions. Countries also choose different base years in quantifying their pledges. These mitigation pledges by developed countries result in aggregate emissions of -14 to -19% in 2020 compared to 1990 levels, which fall well below the range established by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change). According to the IPCC, developed countries need to reduce their emissions by -25 to -40% in 2020 compared to 1990 levels to have approximately a 50% chance to limit the temperature increase to 2 deg. C above pre-industrial levels. It should be noted that some targets presented here (such as EU and US pledges) account for international offsets. To be consistent with IPCC figures, this fraction of expected reductions should not be accounted for. Only the domestic component should be considered. But as specified now, certain pledges are expected to fall further below target. For example, the EU's -20% target translates into -15%, with offsets excluded. This is quite problematic. First, from a climate point of view: developed countries are not making the emission reduction commitments necessary for stabilizing global temperatures at a level that averts dangerous climate change. Second, from a negotiation

  2. Developed Countries 2020 Pledges Fall Short of IPCC Target What can we do

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guerin, E.; Colombier, M.

    2009-01-01

    With the recent announcement by President Obama of the US emission reduction target, the map of developed countries pledges is now full. The US will come to Copenhagen with a -17% target in 2020 compared to 2005 levels that translates into a -4% compared to 1990 levels (together with a -42% target in 2030 that translates into a -33% compared to 1990. Some countries have put forward multiple pledges. They will only commit to the highest pledge if the Copenhagen agreement is deemed satisfactory. For example, the European Union (EU) stated it would move from -20% (the lower pledge) to -30% (the higher pledge) in 2020 compared to 1990 levels if developed countries undertake comparable emission cuts and if major developing countries undertake adequate mitigation actions. Countries also choose different base years in quantifying their pledges. These mitigation pledges by developed countries result in aggregate emissions of -14 to -19% in 2020 compared to 1990 levels, which fall well below the range established by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change). According to the IPCC, developed countries need to reduce their emissions by -25 to -40% in 2020 compared to 1990 levels to have approximately a 50% chance to limit the temperature increase to 2 deg. C above pre-industrial levels. It should be noted that some targets presented here (such as EU and US pledges) account for international offsets. To be consistent with IPCC figures, this fraction of expected reductions should not be accounted for. Only the domestic component should be considered. But as specified now, certain pledges are expected to fall further below target. For example, the EU's -20% target translates into -15%, with offsets excluded. This is quite problematic. First, from a climate point of view: developed countries are not making the emission reduction commitments necessary for stabilizing global temperatures at a level that averts dangerous climate change. Second, from a negotiation point of

  3. Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Strœve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2009-01-01

    Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962–2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from ≈6,000 to ≈400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth. PMID:19171908

  4. Towards the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valérie

    2017-04-01

    The Intergovernemental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the Paris Agreement to prepare a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. This special report is prepared under the scientific leadership of the co-chairs of the IPCC Working Groups I, II and III, and with operational support from the Technical Support Unit of Working Group I. It will consist of 5 chapters, providing (i) framing and context, (ii) exploring mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development, (iii) assessing impacts of 1.5°C global warming on natural and human systems, and (iv) options for strengthening and implementing the global response to the threat of climate change, with a final chapter on sustainable development, poverty eradication and reducing inequalities. The timeline of preparation of the report is extremely short, with four lead author meetings taking place from March 2017 to April 2018, and an approval session scheduled in September 2018. It is crucial that new knowledge is being produced and submitted / published in the literature in time for contributing new material to be assessed by the authors of the report (with deadlines in late fall 2017 and spring 2018). With respect to the additional impacts expected for 1.5°C warming compared to present-day, and impacts avoided with respect to larger warming, new research is expected to build on existing CMIP5 projections, including new information on regional change, methods to provide knowledge for the most vulnerable ecosystems and regions, but also information from ongoing projects aiming to produce large ensembles of simulations, and new simulations driven by low carbon pathways. This is important for identifying climate change

  5. Impacts of projected climate change on productivity and nitrogen leaching of crop rotations in arable and pig farming systems in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Doltra, Jordi; Lægdsmand, Mette; Olesen, Jørgen E

    2014-01-01

    The effects of projected changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration on productivity and nitrogen (N) leaching of characteristic arable and pig farming rotations in Denmark were investigated with the FASSET simulation model. The LARS weather generator was used to provide climatic data...... for the baseline period (1961–90) and in combination with two regional circulation models (RCM) to generate climatic data under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario for four different 20-year time slices (denoted by midpoints 2020, 2040, 2060 and 2080) for two locations...

  6. Preliminary forecasts of Pacific bigeye tuna population trends under the A2 IPCC scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehodey, P.; Senina, I.; Sibert, J.; Bopp, L.; Calmettes, B.; Hampton, J.; Murtugudde, R.

    2010-07-01

    An improved version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM was used to investigate the potential impacts of global warming on tuna populations. The model included an enhanced definition of habitat indices, movements, and accessibility of tuna predators to different vertically migrant and non-migrant micronekton functional groups. The simulations covered the Pacific basin (model domain) at a 2° × 2° geographic resolution. The structure of the model allows an evaluation from multiple data sources, and parameterization can be optimized by adjoint techniques and maximum likelihood using fishing data. A first such optimized parameterization was obtained for bigeye tuna ( Thunnus obesus) in the Pacific Ocean using historical catch data for the last 50 years and a hindcast from a coupled physical-biogeochemical model driven by the NCEP atmospheric reanalysis. The parameterization provided very plausible biological parameter values and a good fit to fishing data from the different fisheries, both within and outside the time period used for optimization. We then employed this model to forecast the future of bigeye tuna populations in the Pacific Ocean. The simulation was driven by the physical-biogeochemical fields predicted from a global marine biogeochemistry - climate simulation. This global simulation was performed with the IPSL climate model version 4 (IPSL-CM4) coupled to the oceanic biogeochemical model PISCES and forced by atmospheric CO 2, from historical records over 1860-2000, and under the SRES A2 IPCC scenario for the 21st century (i.e. atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaching 850 ppm in the year 2100). Potential future changes in distribution and abundance under the IPCC scenario are presented but without taking into account any fishing effort. The simulation showed an improvement in bigeye tuna spawning habitat both in subtropical latitudes and in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) where the surface temperature becomes optimal for

  7. Evaluation of group A1B erythrocytes converted to type as group O: studies of markers of function and compatibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Hong-Wei; Zhuo, Hai-Long; Zhang, Xue; Ji, Shou-Ping; Tan, Ying-Xia; Li, Su-Bo; Jia, Yan-Jun; Xu, Hua; Wu, Qing-Fa; Yun, Zhi-Min; Luo, Qun; Gong, Feng

    2016-01-01

    Background Enzymatic conversion of blood group A1B red blood cells (RBC) to group O RBC (ECO) was achieved by combined treatment with α-galactosidase and α-N-acetylgalactosaminidase. The aim of this study was to evaluate the function and safety of these A1B-ECO RBC in vitro. Materials and methods A 20% packed volume of A1B RBC was treated with enzymes in 250 mM glycine buffer, pH 6.8. The efficiency of the conversion of A and B antigen was evaluated by traditional typing in test tubes, gel column agglutination technology and fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS) analysis. The physiological and metabolic parameters of native and ECO RBC were compared, including osmotic fragility, erythrocyte deformation index, levels of 2,3-diphosphoglycerate, ATP, methaemoglobin, free Na+, and free K+. The morphology of native and ECO RBC was observed by scanning electron microscopy. Residual α-galactosidase or α-N-acetylgalactosaminidase in A1B-ECO RBC was detected by double-antibody sandwich ELISA method. Manual cross-matching was applied to ensure blood compatibility. Results The RBC agglutination tests and FACS results showed that A1B RBC were efficiently converted to O RBC. Functional analysis suggested that the conversion process had little impact on the physiological and metabolic parameters of the RBC. The residual amounts of either α-galactosidase or α-N-acetylgalactosaminidase in the A1B-ECO RBC were less than 10 ng/mL of packed RBC. About 18% of group B and 55% of group O sera reacted with the A1B-ECO RBC in a sensitive gel column cross-matching test. Discussion The conversion process does not appear to affect the morphological, physiological or metabolic parameters of A1B-ECO RBC. However, the A1B-ECO RBC still reacted with some antigens. More research on group O and B sera, which may partly reflect the complexity of group A1 the safety of A1B-ECO RBC is necessary before the application of these RBC in clinical transfusion. PMID:26509826

  8. Bad weather for the IPCC: from Nobel price to affairs, rise and fall of climate experts; Sale temps pour le GIEC: Du prix Nobel aux affaires, grandeur et decadence des experts du climat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dubuis, E.

    2010-07-01

    The intergovernmental panel on climate change, IPCC, or GIEC in French, has become in 20 years one of the most influent organization in the world. Awarded by the Nobel price of peace in 2007, this expression of the United Nations has succeeded in setting the fight against global warming at the top of the international political agenda, in particular during the 2009 Copenhagen meeting. What are the keys of this success? The IPCC has announced a global warming with disastrous effects, where floods would combine with dryness periods, epidemics and other natural disasters. Such a dark picture cannot leave anyone indifferent and allows the IPCC to encourage the humanity to drastically change its consumption habits and limit its way of life. However, to raise such fears and ask for such sacrifices, an organization like the IPCC must be irreproachable. And here is the problem reported in this book: the IPCC has shown its weaknesses, has made mistakes, has used unappropriated methods and miscasting personnel, has been uncapable to explain the complexness of the climate question and has felt reticent about the recognition of its mistakes. Revealed between fall 2009 and winter 2010, these failures have shaken the credibility of the organization to such a point that the UN requested an expertise to judge its own experts. (J.S.)

  9. A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, K. M.

    2012-01-01

    Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

  10. Sustainability assessment of nuclear power: Discourse analysis of IAEA and IPCC frameworks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verbruggen, Aviel; Laes, Erik

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Sustainability assessments (SAs) are methodologically precarious. • Discourse analysis reveals how the meaning of sustainability is constructed in SAs. • Discourse analysis is applied on the SAs of nuclear power of IAEA and IPCC. • For IAEA ‘sustainable’ equals ‘complying with best international practices’. • The IAEA framework largely inspires IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. - Abstract: Sustainability assessments (SAs) are methodologically precarious. Value-based judgments inevitably play a role in setting the scope of the SA, selecting assessment criteria and indicators, collecting adequate data, and developing and using models of considered systems. Discourse analysis can reveal how the meaning and operationalization of sustainability is constructed in and through SAs. Our discourse-analytical approach investigates how sustainability is channeled from ‘manifest image’ (broad but shallow), to ‘vision’, to ‘policy targets’ (specific and practical). This approach is applied on the SA frameworks used by IAEA and IPCC to assess the sustainability of the nuclear power option. The essentially problematic conclusion is that both SA frameworks are constructed in order to obtain answers that do not conflict with prior commitments adopted by the two institutes. For IAEA ‘sustainable’ equals ‘complying with best international practices and standards’. IPCC wrestles with its mission as a provider of “policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive” knowledge to decision-makers. IPCC avoids the assessment of different visions on the role of nuclear power in a low-carbon energy future, and skips most literature critical of nuclear power. The IAEA framework largely inspires IPCC AR5

  11. Twenty first century climate change as simulated by European climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cubasch, Ulrich

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Climate change simulation results for seven European state-of-the-art climate models, participating in the European research project ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts), will be presented. Models from Norway, France, Germany, Denmark, and Great Britain, representing a sub-ensemble of the models contributing to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), are included. Climate simulations are conducted with all the models for present-day climate and for future climate under the SRES A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios. The design of the simulations follows the guidelines of the IPCC AR4. The 21st century projections are compared to the corresponding present-day simulations. The ensemble mean global mean near surface temperature rise for the year 2099 compared to the 1961-1990 period amounts to 3.2Kforthe A1B scenario, to 4.1 K for the A2 scenario, and to 2.1 K for the B1 scenario. The spatial patterns of temperature change are robust among the contributing models with the largest temperature increase over the Arctic in boreal winter, stronger warming overland than over ocean, and little warming over the southern oceans. The ensemble mean globally averaged precipitation increases for the three scenarios (5.6%, 5.7%, and 3.8% for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1, respectively). The precipitation signals of the different models display a larger spread than the temperature signals. In general, precipitation increases in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the mid- to high latitudes (most pronounced during the hemispheric winter) and decreases in the subtropics. Sea-level pressure decreases over the polar regions in all models and all scenarios, which is mainly compensated by a pressure increase in the subtropical highs. These changes imply an intensification of the Southern and Northern Annular Modes

  12. Prospects for medium and long term in light of the report on climate of IPCC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garozzo, M.

    2007-01-01

    Reports of the working group of the IPCC confirm that there are tools and technologies to achieve a reduction of the CO 2 in the Atmosphere. It is to intervene in the energy cycle by working on diverse lines of actions

  13. 26 CFR 1.404(a)-5 - Pension and annuity plans; limitations under section 404(a)(1)(B).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 5 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Pension and annuity plans; limitations under... OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) INCOME TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES Pension, Profit-Sharing, Stock Bonus Plans, Etc. § 1.404(a)-5 Pension and annuity plans; limitations under section 404(a)(1)(B). (a) Subject...

  14. A brief overview of the IPCC second assessment report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolin, B.

    1996-01-01

    Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are still rising and thus increasing the positive radiative forcing of climate. This tends to warm the surface of the earth and to bring about other associated changes in the earth's climate. The slow-down that was observed during 1990-1993 in carbon dioxide's rate of increase has come to an end. The enhanced concentrations of tropospheric aerosols (dust and other small particles in the lower atmosphere) resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels, biomass burning and other sources cause some negative forcing (both directly and indirectly). This forcing is not uniform world-wide but is felt in particular regions and subcontinental areas where aerosols are present. At the local level it can be large enough to more than offset the positive forcing due to greenhouse gases. On the continental-to-hemispheric scale it affects climate change patterns. Aerosols reduce the enhanced global radiative forcing caused by greenhouse gases by about one third (ranging between 20 and 40%).

  15. Simulation of Extreme Arctic Cyclones in IPCC AR5 Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vavrus, S. J.

    2012-12-01

    Although impending Arctic climate change is widely recognized, a wild card in its expression is how extreme weather events in this region will respond to greenhouse warming. Intense polar cyclones represent one type of high-latitude phenomena falling into this category, including very deep synoptic-scale cyclones and mesoscale polar lows. These systems inflict damage through high winds, heavy precipitation, and wave action along coastlines, and their impact is expected to expand in the future, when reduced sea ice cover allows enhanced wave energy. The loss of a buffering ice pack could greatly increase the rate of coastal erosion, which has already been increasing in the Arctic. These and related threats may amplify if extreme Arctic cyclones become more frequent and/or intense in a warming climate with much more open water to fuel them. This possibility has merit on the basis of GCM experiments, which project that greenhouse forcing causes lower mean sea level pressure (SLP) in the Arctic and a strengthening of the deepest storms over boreal high latitudes. In this study, the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate model output is used to investigate the following questions: (1) What are the spatial and seasonal characteristics of extreme Arctic cyclones? (2) How well do GCMs simulate these phenomena? (3) Are Arctic cyclones already showing the expected response to greenhouse warming in climate models? To address these questions, a retrospective analysis is conducted of the transient 20th century simulations among the CMIP5 GCMs (spanning years 1850-2005). The results demonstrate that GCMs are able to reasonably represent extreme Arctic cyclones and that the simulated characteristics do not depend significantly on model resolution. Consistent with observational evidence, climate models generate these storms primarily during winter and within the climatological Aleutian and Icelandic Low regions. Occasionally the cyclones remain very intense

  16. Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoeoek, Mikael

    2010-10-01

    Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO 2 emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The fundamental assumptions

  17. Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoeoek, Mikael

    2010-10-15

    Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO{sub 2} emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The

  18. Downscaling the Impacts of Large-Scale LUCC on Surface Temperature along with IPCC RCPs: A Global Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangzheng Deng

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the potential impacts of large-scale land use and land cover changes (LUCC on surface temperature from a global perspective. As important types of LUCC, urbanization, deforestation, cultivated land reclamation, and grassland degradation have effects on the climate, the potential changes of the surface temperature caused by these four types of large-scale LUCC from 2010 to 2050 are downscaled, and this issue analyzed worldwide along with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. The first case study presents some evidence of the effects of future urbanization on surface temperature in the Northeast megalopolis of the United States of America (USA. In order to understand the potential climatological variability caused by future forest deforestation and vulnerability, we chose Brazilian Amazon region as the second case study. The third selected region in India as a typical region of cultivated land reclamation where the possible climatic impacts are explored. In the fourth case study, we simulate the surface temperature changes caused by future grassland degradation in Mongolia. Results show that the temperature in built-up area would increase obviously throughout the four land types. In addition, the effects of all four large-scale LUCC on monthly average temperature change would vary from month to month with obviously spatial heterogeneity.

  19. Modeling the Projected Changes of River Flow in Central Vietnam under Different Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuan B. Le

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC indicate that Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change. The variability of climate in this region, characterized by large fluctuations in precipitation and temperature, has caused significant changes in surface water resources. This study aims to project the impact of climate change on the seasonal availability of surface water of the Huong River in Central Vietnam in the twenty-first century through hydrologic simulations driven by climate model projections. To calibrate and validate the hydrologic model, the model was forced by the rain gage-based gridded Asian Precipitation–Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APHRODITE V1003R1 Monsoon Asia precipitation data along with observed temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation data from local weather stations. The simulated discharge was compared to observations for the period from 1951 until present. Three Global Climate Models (GCMs ECHAM5-OM, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 integrated into Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG stochastic weather generator were run for three IPCC–Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC-SRES emissions scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 to simulate future climate conditions. The hydrologic model simulated the Huong River discharge for each IPCC-SRES scenario. Simulation results under the three GCMs generally indicate an increase in summer and fall river discharge during the twenty-first century in A2 and B1 scenarios. For A1B scenario, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 models project a decrease in river discharge from present to the 2051–2080 period and then increase until the 2071–2100 period while ECHAM5-OM model produces opposite projection that discharge will increase until the 2051–2080 period and then decrease for the rest of the century. Water management

  20. Evaluation of the effect of accounting method, IPCC v. LCA, on grass-based and confinement dairy systems' greenhouse gas emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, D; Shalloo, L; Patton, J; Buckley, F; Grainger, C; Wallace, M

    2012-09-01

    Life cycle assessment (LCA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guideline methodology, which are the principal greenhouse gas (GHG) quantification methods, were evaluated in this study using a dairy farm GHG model. The model was applied to estimate GHG emissions from two contrasting dairy systems: a seasonal calving pasture-based dairy farm and a total confinement dairy system. Data used to quantify emissions from these systems originated from a research study carried out over a 1-year period in Ireland. The genetic merit of cows modelled was similar for both systems. Total mixed ration was fed in the Confinement system, whereas grazed grass was mainly fed in the grass-based system. GHG emissions from these systems were quantified per unit of product and area. The results of both methods showed that the dairy system that emitted the lowest GHG emissions per unit area did not necessarily emit the lowest GHG emissions possible for a given level of product. Consequently, a recommendation from this study is that GHG emissions be evaluated per unit of product given the growing affluent human population and increasing demand for dairy products. The IPCC and LCA methods ranked dairy systems' GHG emissions differently. For instance, the IPCC method quantified that the Confinement system reduced GHG emissions per unit of product by 8% compared with the grass-based system, but the LCA approach calculated that the Confinement system increased emissions by 16% when off-farm emissions associated with primary dairy production were included. Thus, GHG emissions should be quantified using approaches that quantify the total GHG emissions associated with the production system, so as to determine whether the dairy system was causing emissions displacement. The IPCC and LCA methods were also used in this study to simulate, through a dairy farm GHG model, what effect management changes within both production systems have on GHG emissions. The findings suggest that

  1. Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

    2015-05-01

    This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

  2. Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

    2015-05-01

    This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

  3. Observation of sand waves in the Taiwan Banks using HJ-1A/1B sun glitter imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hua-guo; Lou, Xiu-lin; Shi, Ai-qin; He, Xie-kai; Guan, Wei-bing; Li, Dong-ling

    2014-01-01

    This study focuses on the large sand waves in the Taiwan Banks. Our goals are to observe the sand waves as completely as possible, to obtain their direction, wavelength, density, and ridge length, to analyze their spatial distributions, and to understand the effects of the current field and water depth on the sand waves. This study demonstrates the possibility of using HJ-1A/1B sun glitter imagery with a large swath width and rapid coverage in studying sand waves. Six cloud-free HJ-1A/1B optical images with sun glitter signals received during 2009 to 2011 were processed. The sand waves were mapped based on their features in the images; their direction, wavelength, density, and ridge length were measured and analyzed. We identified 4604 sand waves distributed in an area of 16,400 km2. The distributions of sand waves and their characteristics were analyzed, and the differences of sand waves between the northwestern subregion and the southeastern subregion are reported. Further analysis and discussion of the relationships between spatial distribution of the sand waves and both the tidal current field from a numerical simulation and water depth led to some interesting conclusions. The current field determines the orientation of the sand wave, while the hydrodynamic conditions and water depth influence the shape, size, and density of sand waves to a certain degree.

  4. Screening estrogenic activities of chemicals or mixtures in vivo using transgenic (cyp19a1b-GFP zebrafish embryos.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    François Brion

    Full Text Available The tg(cyp19a1b-GFP transgenic zebrafish expresses GFP (green fluorescent protein under the control of the cyp19a1b gene, encoding brain aromatase. This gene has two major characteristics: (i it is only expressed in radial glial progenitors in the brain of fish and (ii it is exquisitely sensitive to estrogens. Based on these properties, we demonstrate that natural or synthetic hormones (alone or in binary mixture, including androgens or progestagens, and industrial chemicals induce a concentration-dependent GFP expression in radial glial progenitors. As GFP expression can be quantified by in vivo imaging, this model presents a very powerful tool to screen and characterize compounds potentially acting as estrogen mimics either directly or after metabolization by the zebrafish embryo. This study also shows that radial glial cells that act as stem cells are direct targets for a large panel of endocrine disruptors, calling for more attention regarding the impact of environmental estrogens and/or certain pharmaceuticals on brain development. Altogether these data identify this in vivo bioassay as an interesting alternative to detect estrogen mimics in hazard and risk assessment perspective.

  5. Can carbon dioxide storage help cut greenhouse emissions? A simplified guide to the IPCC's 'Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-06-01

    Fossil fuels account for 75 - 80% of today's global energy use and three quarters of humanity's total carbon dioxide emissions. Without specific actions to minimize our impact on the climate, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil-fuel energy are projected to swell over the course of the 21st century. The consequences - a global temperature rise of 1.4 - 5.8C and shifting patterns of weather and extreme events - could prove disastrous for future generations. Stabilizing or reducing global emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases over the coming decades will challenge human ingenuity. Fortunately, the IPCC's Third Assessment Report, published in 2001, concluded that existing and emerging technologies for limiting emissions could - if supported by the right policies - stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases by the end of the century at levels that would limit further climate change. No single technology will suffice by itself; instead, a combination of technologies will be required. Many of the most promising technologies will contribute by improving the energy efficiency of certain processes and products or by converting solar, wind and other noncarbon power sources into usable energy. But with oil, coal and gas set to remain the primary sources of energy for decades to come, governments and industry are also examining technologies for reducing emissions from these fuels. One such technology is known as carbon dioxide capture and storage. Abbreviated as CCS, this technology could be used by large c1 Introduction stationary 'point sources' such as fossil fuel-fired power plants and industrial facilities to prevent their CO2 emissions from entering the atmosphere and contributing to climate change. To learn more about this technology's potential, the member governments of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change asked the IPCC to assess the current state of knowledge about carbon dioxide storage and capture. The IPCC

  6. Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gisselle Yang Xie

    Full Text Available Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd, a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary, including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific and also separately per region (region-specific. One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas

  7. Discovering the new RCP and SSP scenarios used by the IPCC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    This report presents the scenarios defined by a group of experts within the perspective of the 5. IPCC report. This four reference scenarios named RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) have been designed to foresee the evolution of concentrations of greenhouse gases, of ozone, and of aerosol precursors for the 21. century and beyond. The report also evokes the evolution of simulations used by climatologists, and the introduction of a representation of social and economic evolutions (definition of five families of scenario-types: sustainability, middle of the road, fragmentation, inequality, and conventional development). The consistency of these RCP scenarios and social-economical scenarios is outlined

  8. Calculation of Co2 emissions from the italian energy system; Calcolo delle emissioni di CO2 dal settore energetico italiano. 1990-2000. Metodo di riferimento IPCC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Contaldi, M. [Agenzia Nazionale per la Protezione dell' Ambiente, Rome (Italy); La Motta, S. [ENEA, Funzione Centrale Studi, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy)

    2001-07-01

    The calculation of Co2 emissions from the Italian energy system is the object of this work. The inventory method used is the Reference Approach from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC, 1996 revised Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories) and the energy consumption data are taken from the Italian Energy Balance edited by the Ministry of Industry. The years analysed are those from 1990 to 2000. [Italian] Lo scopo di questo lavoro e' quello di contabilizzare le emissioni di CO2 provenienti dal settore energetico per fonte di utilizzo dell'energia, a partire direttamente dal Bilancio Energetico Nazionale (Bilancio Energetico Nazionale, BEN, a cura del Ministero Industria, Commercio ed Artigianato) ed applicando all'Italia la metodologia di riferimento per il calcolo delle emissioni della CO2 elaborata dall'Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC, 1996 revised Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories). Gli anni presi in considerazione in queto lavoro sono quelli dal 1990 al 2000.

  9. Dominant frames in legacy and social media coverage of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Saffron; Williams, Hywel T. P.; Kurz, Tim; Wiersma, Bouke; Boykoff, Maxwell

    2015-04-01

    The media are powerful agents that translate information across the science-policy interface, framing it for audiences. Yet frames are never neutral: they define an issue, identify causes, make moral judgements and shape proposed solutions. Here, we show how the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) was framed in UK and US broadcast and print coverage, and on Twitter. Coverage of IPCC Working Group I (WGI) was contested and politicized, employing the `Settled Science, Uncertain Science, Political or Ideological Struggle and Role of Science’ frames. WGII coverage commonly used Disaster or Security. More diverse frames were employed for WGII and WGIII, including Economics and Morality and Ethics. Framing also varied by media institution: for example, the BBC used Uncertain Science, whereas Channel 4 did not. Coverage varied by working group, with WGIII gaining far less coverage than WGI or WGII. We suggest that media coverage and framing of AR5 was influenced by its sequential three-part structure and by the availability of accessible narratives and visuals. We recommend that these communication lessons be applied to future climate science reports.

  10. Traceable accounts of subjective probability judgments in the IPCC and beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baer, P. G.

    2012-12-01

    One of the major sources of controversy surrounding the reports of the IPCC has been the characterization of uncertainty. Although arguably the IPCC has paid more attention to the process of uncertainty analysis and communication than any comparable assessment body, its efforts to achieve consistency have produced mixed results. In particular, the extensive use of subjective probability assessment has attracted widespread criticism. Statements such as "Average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were very likely higher than during any other 50-year period in the last 500 years" are ubiquitous (one online database lists nearly 3000 such claims), and indeed are the primary way in which its key "findings" are reported. Much attention is drawn to the precise quantitative definition of such statements (e.g., "very likely" means >90% probability, vs. "extremely likely" which means >95% certainty). But there is no process by which the decision regarding the choice of such uncertainty level for a given finding is formally made or reported, and thus they are easily by disputed by anyone, expert or otherwise, who disagrees with the assessment. In the "Uncertainty Guidance Paper" for the Third Assessment Report, Richard Moss and Steve Schneider defined the concept of a "traceable account," which gave exhaustive detail regarding how one ought to provide documentation of such an uncertainty assessment. But the guidance, while appearing straightforward and reasonable, in fact was an unworkable recipe, which would have taken near-infinite time if used for more than a few key results, and would have required a different structuring of the text than the conventional scientific assessment. And even then it would have left a gap when it came to the actual provenance of any such specific judgments, because there simply is no formal step at which individuals turn their knowledge of the evidence on some finding into a probability judgment. The

  11. Nitrous oxide emissions in the Shanghai river network: implications for the effects of urban sewage and IPCC methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Zhongjie; Deng, Huanguang; Wang, Dongqi; Ye, Mingwu; Tan, Yongjie; Li, Yangjie; Chen, Zhenlou; Xu, Shiyuan

    2013-10-01

    Global nitrogen (N) enrichment has resulted in increased nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emission that greatly contributes to climate change and stratospheric ozone destruction, but little is known about the N(2)O emissions from urban river networks receiving anthropogenic N inputs. We examined N(2)O saturation and emission in the Shanghai city river network, covering 6300 km(2), over 27 months. The overall mean saturation and emission from 87 locations was 770% and 1.91 mg N(2)O-N m(-2) d(-1), respectively. Nitrous oxide (N(2)O) saturation did not exhibit a clear seasonality, but the temporal pattern was co-regulated by both water temperature and N loadings. Rivers draining through urban and suburban areas receiving more sewage N inputs had higher N(2)O saturation and emission than those in rural areas. Regression analysis indicated that water ammonium (NH(4)(+)) and dissolved oxygen (DO) level had great control on N(2)O production and were better predictors of N(2)O emission in urban watershed. About 0.29 Gg N(2)O-N yr(-1) N(2)O was emitted from the Shanghai river network annually, which was about 131% of IPCC's prediction using default emission values. Given the rapid progress of global urbanization, more study efforts, particularly on nitrification and its N(2)O yielding, are needed to better quantify the role of urban rivers in global riverine N(2)O emission. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. International IPCC workshop on methane and nitrous oxide: methods in national emissions inventories and options for control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amstel, A.R. van (ed.)

    1993-07-01

    This workshop had two main objectives: to support the development of an internationally agreed methodology and reporting format for national emission inventories of greenhouse gases by mid 1993, as coordinated by the Science Working Group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD); and the development of technical options for reduction of these greenhouse gases and the assessment of the socio-economic feasibility of these options. These proceedings contain the overview papers presented at the workshop, the background papers prepared for the working group sessions and the conclusions and recommendations of the working groups put forward during these sessions. 16 poster summaries are also included. During the workshop, 8 different sources of methane were discussed - oil and gas, coal mining, ruminants, animal waste, landfills and sewage treatments, combustion and industry, rice production and wetlands, and biomass burning - and 2 sources of nitrous oxide - agricultural soils and combustion and industry. All papers have been abstracted separately.

  13. Coupled model simulations of climate changes in the 20th century and beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yongqiang; Zhi, Hai; Wang, Bin; Wan, Hui; Li, Chao; Liu, Hailong; Li, Wei; Zheng, Weipeng; Zhou, Tianjun

    2008-07-01

    Several scenario experiments of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4) are performed by version g1.0 of a Flexible coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model (FGOALS) developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS), including the “Climate of the 20th century experiment”, “CO2 1% increase per year to doubling experiment” and two separate IPCC greenhouse gases emission scenarios A1B and B1 experiments. To distinguish between the different impacts of natural variations and human activities on the climate change, three-member ensemble runs are performed for each scenario experiment. The coupled model simulations show: (1) from 1900 to 2000, the global mean temperature increases about 0.5°C and the major increase occurs during the later half of the 20th century, which is in consistent with the observations that highlights the coupled model’s ability to reproduce the climate changes since the industrial revolution; (2) the global mean surface air temperature increases about 1.6°C in the CO2 doubling experiment and 1.5°C and 2.4°C in the A1B and B1 scenarios, respectively. The global warming is indicated by not only the changes of the surface temperature and precipitation but also the temperature increase in the deep ocean. The thermal expansion of the sea water would induce the rise of the global mean sea level. Both the control run and the 20th century climate change run are carried out again with version g1.1 of FGOALS, in which the cold biases in the high latitudes were removed. They are then compared with those from version g1.0 of FGOALS in order to distinguish the effect of the model biases on the simulation of global warming.

  14. Progress toward Consensus Estimates of Regional Glacier Mass Balances for IPCC AR5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arendt, A. A.; Gardner, A. S.; Cogley, J. G.

    2011-12-01

    Glaciers are potentially large contributors to rising sea level. Since the last IPCC report in 2007 (AR4), there has been a widespread increase in the use of geodetic observations from satellite and airborne platforms to complement field observations of glacier mass balance, as well as significant improvements in the global glacier inventory. Here we summarize our ongoing efforts to integrate data from multiple sources to arrive at a consensus estimate for each region, and to quantify uncertainties in those estimates. We will use examples from Alaska to illustrate methods for combining Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), elevation differencing and field observations into a single time series with related uncertainty estimates. We will pay particular attention to reconciling discrepancies between GRACE estimates from multiple processing centers. We will also investigate the extent to which improvements in the glacier inventory affect the accuracy of our regional mass balances.

  15. Solar cycle length hypothesis appears to support the IPCC on global warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laut, Peter; Gundermann, Jesper

    1999-01-01

    warming from the enhanced concentrations of greenhouse gases. The "solar hypothesis" claims that solar activity causes a significant component of the global mean temperature to vary in phase opposite to the filtered solar cycle lengths. In an earlier paper we have demonstrated that for data covering...... lengths with the "corrected" temperature anomalies is substantially better than with the historical anomalies. Therefore our findings support a total reversal of the common assumption that a verification of the solar hypothesis would challenge the IPCC assessment of man-made global warming.......Since the discovery of a striking correlation between 1-2-2-2-1 filtered solar cycle lengths and the 11-year running average of Northern Hemisphere land air temperatures there have been widespread speculations as to whether these findings would rule out any significant contributions to global...

  16. Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on the SRES A1, B1, and A2 Scenarios, 1990-2100

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1, B1, and A2 Scenarios, 1990-2100, were adopted in...

  17. The land-use projections and resulting emissions in the IPCC SRES scenarios as simulated by the IMAGE 2.2 model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strengers, B.; Eickhout, B.; De Vries, B.; Bouwman, L.; Leemans, R.

    2005-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) developed a new series of emission scenarios (SRES). Six global models were used to develop SRES but most focused primarily on energy and industry related emissions. Land-use emissions were only covered by three models, where IMAGE included the most detailed, spatially explicit description of global land-use and land-cover dynamics. To complement their calculations the other models used land-use emission from AIM and IMAGE, leading to inconsistent estimates. Representation of the land-use emissions in SRES is therefore poor. This paper presents details on the IMAGE 2.1 land-use results to complement the SRES report. The IMAGE SRES scenarios are based on the original IPCC SRES assumptions and narratives using the latest version of IMAGE (IMAGE 2.2). IMAGE provides comprehensive emission estimates because not only emissions are addressed but also the resulting atmospheric concentrations, climate change and impacts. Additionally, in SRES the scenario assumptions were only presented and quantified for 4 'macro-regions'. The IMAGE 2.2 SRES implementation has been extended towards 17 regions. We focus on land-use aspects and show that land-related emissions not only depend on population projections but also on the temporal and spatial dynamics of different land-related sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. We also illustrate the importance of systemic feed backs and interactions in the climate system that influence land-use emissions, such as deforestation and forest regrowth, soil respiration and CO2-fertilisation

  18. CO2 emission accounting for the non-energy use of fossil fuels in Italy. A comparison between NEAT model and the IPCC approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Motta, S. La; Santino, D.; Ancona, P.; Weiss, M.

    2005-01-01

    In this article, we apply the Non-energy Use Emission Accounting Tables (NEAT) model as an independent mass balance approach to Italy in order to estimate total non-energy use and related CO 2 emissions for the year 1990 and the period 1995-1997. The model results are compared with official data according to the IPCC Reference Approach (IPCC-RA) and the IPCC Sectoral Approach (IPCC-SA) of the Italian National Inventory Report. The NEAT results for total non-energy use range between 25.0 and 27.6Mt CO 2 equivalents and are therefore clearly below the values used in the IPCC-RA (31.3-32.8Mt CO 2 equivalents). Our research revealed inconsistencies in the IPCC-RA regarding feedstock consumption (1) of steam crackers in 1990 and (2) for ammonia production in the period of 1995-1997. The CO 2 emissions as determined with NEAT correspond well with official IPCC-SA values for most individual industrial processes. However, the total industrial process emissions are underestimated in the IPCC-SA because CO 2 released from methanol and carbon black production is not taken into account. Moreover, we calculate with NEAT 14-61% higher CO 2 emissions from 'solvent and other product use' than the IPCC-SA. These deviations are caused to some extent by the fact that the IPCC-SA does not account for CO 2 emissions from the consumption of lubricants. In total, we therefore conclude that emissions from the non-energy use of fossil fuels are currently underestimated in the IPCC-SA. Further research is recommended (1) to improve the general accuracy of emission estimates for 'solvent and other product use' in the IPCC-SA and (2) to introduce a definition for non-energy use, which allocates feedstock consumption consistently to either energy use or non-energy use in the IPCC-SA and the IPCC-RA of the Italian National Inventory Report

  19. Korea's transition to the IPCC : Introduction of BAT-based Integrated ACT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Daegyun; Yoo, Heungmin; Kim, Younglan

    2017-04-01

    Recently, environmental pollution concerns have been increased in Korea more than ever before. So, The Ministry of Environment and the National Institute of Environmental Research(NIER) in Korea has forged a policy that can effectively reduce the environmental pollutants emitted from each business sectors. This policy nicknamed the "Integrated Environmental Management Act" will be implemented from January 2017. It is to consolidate the management method of each environment media (such as water/atmosphere, etc.) and discharge facility into single authorization and/or permission system for entire installation. In particular, it is the environmental management system in according to the "Act on Integrated Management of Environmental Pollution Facilities" that encourages active participation of companies, grant customized emission permits by considering the ambient environmental condition as well as best available techniques, and review the permitted items periodically. Throughout this optimal management policy, we expect the minimization of the environmental effect by reducing the production and emission of pollutants. The integrated environmental management system is a scientific and advanced whole new management system and it is also a policy that considers the environment and human health effect in a synthetically, and minimizes the emission of pollutants by applying the best available techniques. In this presentation, we will talk about the Korea's transition stage to IPCC(integrated pollution prevention and control) and introduce the whole new Integrated Environmental Management system of Korea.

  20. Towards developing IPCC methane ‘emission factors’ for peatlands (organic soils

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Couwenberg

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available (1 Huge reductions of carbon dioxide (CO2 and nitrous oxide (N2O effluxes can be attained by rewetting drained peatlands, but this will increase methane (CH4 effluxes.(2 The scientific data base for methane effluxes from peatlands is much larger than that for CO2 or N2O. Once anoxic conditions are provided, the availability of fresh plant material is the major factor in methane production. Old (recalcitrant peat plays only a subordinate role in gas efflux.(3 The annual mean water level is a surprisingly good indicator for methane effluxes, but at high water levels the cover of aerenchymous shunts (gas conductive plant tissue becomes a better proxy. Ideally, both water level and cover of aerenchymous shunts should be assessed to arrive at robust estimates of methane effluxes.(4 The available data provide sufficient guidance for arriving at moderately accurate (Tier 1 estimates consistent with IPCC methodologies. For more accurate estimation (higher tier approaches, vegetation provides a promising basis for development of more detailed efflux factors. Vegetation is a good proxy for mean water levels and can provide - with extra attention to aerenchymous shunts - a robust proxy for accurate and spatially explicit estimates of methane effluxes over large areas.

  1. Scientific Integrity and Consensus in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, K.

    2017-12-01

    Scientific integrity is the hallmark of any assessment and is a paramount consideration in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment process. Procedures are in place for rigorous scientific review and to quantify confidence levels and uncertainty in the communication of key findings. However, the IPCC is unique in that its reports are formally accepted by governments through consensus agreement. This presentation will present the unique requirements of the IPCC intergovernmental assessment and discuss the advantages and challenges of its approach.

  2. Critical early roles for col27a1a and col27a1b in zebrafish notochord morphogenesis, vertebral mineralization and post-embryonic axial growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Helena E; Lang, Michael R; Pace, James M; Parichy, David M

    2009-12-29

    Fibrillar collagens are well known for their links to human diseases, with which all have been associated except for the two most recently identified fibrillar collagens, type XXIV collagen and type XXVII collagen. To assess functions and potential disease phenotypes of type XXVII collagen, we examined its roles in zebrafish embryonic and post-embryonic development. We identified two type XXVII collagen genes in zebrafish, col27a1a and col27a1b. Both col27a1a and col27a1b were expressed in notochord and cartilage in the embryo and early larva. To determine sites of type XXVII collagen function, col27a1a and col27a1b were knocked down using morpholino antisense oligonucleotides. Knockdown of col27a1a singly or in conjunction with col27a1b resulted in curvature of the notochord at early stages and formation of scoliotic curves as well as dysmorphic vertebrae at later stages. These defects were accompanied by abnormal distributions of cells and protein localization in the notochord, as visualized by transmission electron microscopy, as well as delayed vertebral mineralization as detected histologically. Together, our findings indicate a key role for type XXVII collagen in notochord morphogenesis and axial skeletogenesis and suggest a possible human disease phenotype.

  3. Continentality in Europe according to various resolution regional climate models with A1B scenario in the 21st century

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Szabó-Takács, Beáta; Farda, Aleš; Zahradníček, Pavel; Štěpánek, Petr

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 119, č. 4 (2015), s. 515-535 ISSN 0324-6329 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : continentality * Gorczynsky index * Conrad index * ENSEMBLES * climate change * E-OBS Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 0.810, year: 2015

  4. The Use of the Data Assimilation Research Testbed for Initializing and Evaluating IPCC Decadal Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raeder, K.; Anderson, J. L.; Lauritzen, P. H.; Hoar, T. J.; Collins, N.

    2010-12-01

    DART (www.image.ucar.edu/DAReS/DART) is a general purpose, freely available, ensemble Kalman filter, data assimilation system, which is being used to generate state-of-the-art, partially coupled, ocean-atmosphere re-analyses in support of the decadal predictions planned for the next IPCC report. The resulting gridded product is directly comparable to the state variables output by POP and CAM (oceanic and atmospheric components of NCAR's Community Earth System Model climate model) because those are the assimilating models. Other models could also benefit from comparison against these reanalyses, since the ocean analyses are at the leading edge of ocean state estimation, and the atmospheric analyses are competitive with operational centers'. Such comparisons can reveal model biases and predictability characteristics, and do so in a quantitative way, since the ensemble nature of the analyses provides an objective estimate of the analysis error. The analyses will also be used as initial conditions for the decadal forecasts because they are the most realistic available. The generation of such analyses has revealed errors in model formulation for several versions of the finite volume core CAM, which has led to model improvements in each case. New models can be incorporated into DART in a matter of weeks, allowing them to be compared directly against available observations. The observations currently used in the assimilations include, for the ocean; temperature and salinity from the World Ocean Database (floats, drifters, moorings, autonomous pinipeds, and others), and for the atmosphere; temperature and winds from radiosondes, satellite drift winds, ACARS and aircraft. Observations of ocean currents and atmospheric moisture and pressure are also available. Global Positioning System profiles of atmospheric temperature and moisture are available for recent years. All that is required to add new observations to the suite is the forward operator, which generates an estimate

  5. Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

    KAUST Repository

    Villarino, E

    2015-07-02

    Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

  6. Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

    KAUST Repository

    Villarino, E; Chust, G; Licandro, P; Butenschö n, M; Ibaibarriaga, L; Larrañ aga, A; Irigoien, Xabier

    2015-01-01

    Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

  7. Isolation and characterization of cyp19a1a and cyp19a1b promoters in the protogynous hermaphrodite orange-spotted grouper (Epinephelus coioides).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Weimin; Lu, Huijie; Jiang, Haiyan; Li, Mu; Zhang, Shen; Liu, Qiongyou; Zhang, Lihong

    2012-02-01

    Aromatase (CYP19A1) catalyzes the conversion of androgens to estrogens. In teleosts, duplicated copies of cyp19a1 genes, namely cyp19a1a and cyp19a1b, were identified, however, the transcriptional regulation of these two genes remains poorly understood. In the present study, the 5'-flanking regions of the orange-spotted grouper cyp19a1a (gcyp19a1a) and cyp19a1b (gcyp19a1b) genes were isolated and characterized. The proximal promoter regions of both genes were relatively conserved when compared to those of the other teleosts. Notably, a conserved FOXO transcriptional factor binding site was firstly reported in the proximal promoter of gcyp19a1a, and deletion of the region (-112 to -60) containing this site significantly decreased the promoter activities. The deletion of the region (-246 to -112) containing the two conserved FTZ-F1 sites also dramatically decreased the transcriptional activities of gcyp19a1a promoter, and both two FTZ-F1 sites were shown to be stimulatory cis-acting elements. A FTZ-F1 homologue isolated from ricefield eel (eFTZ-F1) up-regulated gcyp19a1a promoter activities possibly via the FTZ-F1 sites, however, a previously identified orange-spotted grouper FTZ-F1 homologue (gFTZ-F1) did not activate the transcription of gcyp19a1a promoter unexpectedly. As to gcyp19a1b promoter, all the deletion constructs did not show good promoter activities in either TM4 or U251-MG cells. Estradiol (100nM) up-regulated gcyp19a1b promoter activities by about 13- and 36-fold in TM4 and U251-MG cells, respectively, via the conserved ERE motif, but did not stimulate gcyp19a1a promoter activities. These results are helpful to further elucidate the regulatory mechanisms of cyp19a1a and cyp19a1b expression in the orange-spotted grouper as well as other teleosts. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Loss of Slc4a1b chloride/bicarbonate exchanger function protects mechanosensory hair cells from aminoglycoside damage in the zebrafish mutant persephone.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dale W Hailey

    Full Text Available Mechanosensory hair cell death is a leading cause of hearing and balance disorders in the human population. Hair cells are remarkably sensitive to environmental insults such as excessive noise and exposure to some otherwise therapeutic drugs. However, individual responses to damaging agents can vary, in part due to genetic differences. We previously carried out a forward genetic screen using the zebrafish lateral line system to identify mutations that alter the response of larval hair cells to the antibiotic neomycin, one of a class of aminoglycoside compounds that cause hair cell death in humans. The persephone mutation confers resistance to aminoglycosides. 5 dpf homozygous persephone mutants are indistinguishable from wild-type siblings, but differ in their retention of lateral line hair cells upon exposure to neomycin. The mutation in persephone maps to the chloride/bicarbonate exchanger slc4a1b and introduces a single Ser-to-Phe substitution in zSlc4a1b. This mutation prevents delivery of the exchanger to the cell surface and abolishes the ability of the protein to import chloride across the plasma membrane. Loss of function of zSlc4a1b reduces hair cell death caused by exposure to the aminoglycosides neomycin, kanamycin, and gentamicin, and the chemotherapeutic drug cisplatin. Pharmacological block of anion transport with the disulfonic stilbene derivatives DIDS and SITS, or exposure to exogenous bicarbonate, also protects hair cells against damage. Both persephone mutant and DIDS-treated wild-type larvae show reduced uptake of labeled aminoglycosides. persephone mutants also show reduced FM1-43 uptake, indicating a potential impact on mechanotransduction-coupled activity in the mutant. We propose that tight regulation of the ionic environment of sensory hair cells, mediated by zSlc4a1b activity, is critical for their sensitivity to aminoglycoside antibiotics.

  9. Applying a framework for landscape planning under climate change for the conservation of biodiversity in the Finnish boreal forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazziotta, Adriano; Triviño, Maria; Tikkanen, Olli-Pekka; Kouki, Jari; Strandman, Harri; Mönkkönen, Mikko

    2015-02-01

    Conservation strategies are often established without consideration of the impact of climate change. However, this impact is expected to threaten species and ecosystem persistence and to have dramatic effects towards the end of the 21st century. Landscape suitability for species under climate change is determined by several interacting factors including dispersal and human land use. Designing effective conservation strategies at regional scales to improve landscape suitability requires measuring the vulnerabilities of specific regions to climate change and determining their conservation capacities. Although methods for defining vulnerability categories are available, methods for doing this in a systematic, cost-effective way have not been identified. Here, we use an ecosystem model to define the potential resilience of the Finnish forest landscape by relating its current conservation capacity to its vulnerability to climate change. In applying this framework, we take into account the responses to climate change of a broad range of red-listed species with different niche requirements. This framework allowed us to identify four categories in which representation in the landscape varies among three IPCC emission scenarios (B1, low; A1B, intermediate; A2, high emissions): (i) susceptible (B1 = 24.7%, A1B = 26.4%, A2 = 26.2%), the most intact forest landscapes vulnerable to climate change, requiring management for heterogeneity and resilience; (ii) resilient (B1 = 2.2%, A1B = 0.5%, A2 = 0.6%), intact areas with low vulnerability that represent potential climate refugia and require conservation capacity maintenance; (iii) resistant (B1 = 6.7%, A1B = 0.8%, A2 = 1.1%), landscapes with low current conservation capacity and low vulnerability that are suitable for restoration projects; (iv) sensitive (B1 = 66.4%, A1B = 72.3%, A2 = 72.0%), low conservation capacity landscapes that are vulnerable and for which alternative conservation measures are required depending on the

  10. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozano, Olga M; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Arca, Bachisio; Alcasena, Fermin J; Monteiro, Antonio T; Finney, Mark A; Del Giudice, Liliana; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Spano, Donatella

    2017-10-01

    We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041-2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Additive effects of levonorgestrel and ethinylestradiol on brain aromatase (cyp19a1b) in zebrafish specific in vitro and in vivo bioassays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hinfray, N., E-mail: nathalie.hinfray@ineris.fr [INERIS, Unité d' écotoxicologie in vitro et in vivo , Verneuil-en-Halatte (France); Tebby, C. [INERIS, Unité Modèles pour l' Ecotoxicologie et la Toxicologie, Verneuil-en-Halatte (France); Garoche, C.; Piccini, B. [INERIS, Unité d' écotoxicologie in vitro et in vivo , Verneuil-en-Halatte (France); Bourgine, G. [IRSET, équipe NEED, Université de Rennes 1, Rennes (France); Aït-Aïssa, S. [INERIS, Unité d' écotoxicologie in vitro et in vivo , Verneuil-en-Halatte (France); Kah, O. [IRSET, équipe NEED, Université de Rennes 1, Rennes (France); Pakdel, F. [IRSET, Inserm U1085, équipe TREC, Université de Rennes 1, Rennes (France); Brion, F. [INERIS, Unité d' écotoxicologie in vitro et in vivo , Verneuil-en-Halatte (France)

    2016-09-15

    Estrogens and progestins are widely used in combination in human medicine and both are present in aquatic environment. Despite the joint exposure of aquatic wildlife to estrogens and progestins, very little information is available on their combined effects. In the present study we investigated the effect of ethinylestradiol (EE2) and Levonorgestrel (LNG), alone and in mixtures, on the expression of the brain specific ER-regulated cyp19a1b gene. For that purpose, recently established zebrafish-derived tools were used: (i) an in vitro transient reporter gene assay in a human glial cell line (U251-MG) co-transfected with zebrafish estrogen receptors (zfERs) and the luciferase gene under the control of the zebrafish cyp19a1b gene promoter and (ii) an in vivo bioassay using a transgenic zebrafish expressing GFP under the control of the zebrafish cyp19a1b gene promoter (cyp19a1b-GFP). Concentration-response relationships for single chemicals were modeled and used to design the mixture experiments following a ray design. The results from mixture experiments were analyzed to predict joint effects according to concentration addition and statistical approaches were used to characterize the potential interactions between the components of the mixtures (synergism/antagonism). We confirmed that some progestins could elicit estrogenic effects in fish brain. In mixtures, EE2 and LNG exerted additive estrogenic effects both in vitro and in vivo, suggesting that some environmental progestin could exert effects that will add to those of environmental (xeno-)estrogens. Moreover, our zebrafish specific assays are valuable tools that could be used in risk assessment for both single chemicals and their mixtures. - Highlights: • Combined effects of EE2 and LNG were assessed on ER-dependent cyp19a1b expression. • EE2 and LNG alone induced brain aromatase in zebrafish specific bioassays. • Experimental ray design allowed complete concentration-response surfaces modeling. • EE2 and

  12. Economic and policy issues in climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nordhaus, W.D.

    1998-01-01

    Global climate change has emerged as one of today's most challenging and controversial policy issues. In this significant new contribution, a roster of premier scholars examines economic and social aspects of that far-reaching phenomenon. Although the 1997 summit in Kyoto focused world attention on climate, it was just one step in an ongoing process. Research by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been ongoing since 1988. An extensive IPCC Working Group report published in 1995 examined the economic and social aspects of climate change. In this new volume, eminent economists assess that IPCC report and address the questions that emerge. William Nordhaus's introduction establishes the context for this book. It provides basic scientific background, reviews the IPCC's activities, and explains the genesis of the project

  13. Integrated ecosystem services assessment: Valuation of changes due to sea level rise in Galveston Bay, Texas, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoskowitz, David; Carollo, Cristina; Pollack, Jennifer Beseres; Santos, Carlota; Welder, Kathleen

    2017-03-01

    The goal of the present study was to identify the potential changes in ecosystem service values provided by wetlands in Galveston Bay, Texas, USA, under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B max (0.69 m) sea level rise scenario. Built exclusively upon the output produced during the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model 6 (SLAMM 6) exercise for the Galveston Bay region, this study showed that fresh marsh and salt marsh present a steady decline from 2009 (initial condition) to 2100. Fresh marsh was projected to undergo the biggest changes, with the loss of approximately 21% of its extent between 2009 and 2100 under the A1B max scenario. The percentages of change for salt marsh were less prominent at approximately 12%. This trend was also shown in the values of selected ecosystem services (disturbance regulation, waste regulation, recreation, and aesthetics) provided by these habitats. An ordinary least squares regression was used to calculate the monetary value of the selected ecosystem services provided by salt marsh and fresh marsh in 2009, and in 2050 and 2100 under the A1B max scenario. The value of the selected services showed potential monetary losses in excess of US$40 million annually in 2100, compared to 2009 for fresh marsh and more than $11 million for salt marsh. The estimates provided here are only small portions of what can be lost due to the decrease in habitat extent, and they highlight the need for protecting not only built infrastructure but also natural resources from sea level rise. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:431-443. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  14. After the last IPCC publication and the China-USA agreement, the stage is set for the Paris conference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laville, Bettina

    2014-11-01

    After having commented some alarming data regarding greenhouse gas emissions and their brutal increase during the past decades, the author quotes and comments the content of the fifth IPCC report which states that global warming is, without any doubt, due to human activities, and that a solution is still in our hands. She outlines pitfalls and obstacles for the translation of this emergency into policies. She discusses the geopolitical weight of the main emitting countries (China, USA, Europe, Japan), and finally outlines the lack of regulatory economic instruments

  15. Intercomparison of IPCC AR4 models with ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis within the AFRICA-CORDEX domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    León, M.; González, Y.; Díaz, J. P.; Expósito, F. J.; Pérez, J. C.; González, A.

    2012-04-01

    One of the most useful techniques to obtain regional climate projections along the XXI century is to run a mesoscale model driven by coarse input data (initial and boundaries conditions) obtained from Atmosphere-Ocean coupled Global Circulation Models (AOGCM). This is the dynamical downscaling approach. To correctly configure the dynamical downscaling approach it is necessary to choose the correct input dataset that project the climatic situation in a more accurate way and to establish a boundary to the errors in the results associated to these input data. In this study, we consider that the agreement of models with present observations is a way to assign confidence to the quality of a model. With this aim we intercompare the surface temperature of 21 IPCC AR4 runs models with the results from the reanalysis databases ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR in the CORDEX-AFRICA domain in the period 1961-2000. Thus, we have studied the seasonal cycles of the four decades of this period in addition to the probability density functions (PDFs) of the IPCC models. The statistical study allows us to classify the IPCC AR4 models according to their discrepancies with reanalysis data for the CORDEX domain. In general, the MRI CGCM 2.3.2 IPCC AR4 model presents the best fits compared with the reanalysis databases regarding to the correlation factor, root mean square (rms) and PDF skill score. For the intercomparison with ERA-40, the percentage of points with rms lower than 2°C is over 80%, for the four decades; with 89% of the points showing correlations coefficients larger than 0.80 and a 76 % of the data presents skill-scores values, based on the common areas of the PDFs, above a threshold of 0.7. Acknowledgements The authors acknowledge to the MEC (Ministry of Education and Science, Spain) for the next supports: projects CGL2007-66477-C02-02/CLI, CGL2008-04740/CLI, CGL2010-21366-C04-01 and UNLL08-3E-007.

  16. Predicted risk of cobalt deficiency in grazing sheep from a geochemical survey; communicating uncertainty with the IPCC verbal scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lark, R. M.; Ander, E. L.; Cave, M. R.; Knights, K. V.; Glennon, M. M.; Scanlon, R. P.

    2014-05-01

    Deficiency or excess of certain trace elements in the soil causes problems for agriculture, including disorders of grazing ruminants. Farmers and their advisors in Ireland use index values for the concentration of total soil cobalt and manganese to identify where grazing sheep are at risk of cobalt deficiency. We used cokriging with topsoil data from a regional geochemical survey across six counties of Ireland to form local cokriging predictions of cobalt and manganese concentrations with an attendant distribution which reflects the joint uncertainty of these predictions. From this distribution we then computed conditional probabilities for different combinations of cobalt and manganese index values, and so for the corresponding inferred risk to sheep of cobalt deficiency and the appropriateness of different management interventions. The challenge is to communicate these results effectively to an audience comprising, inter alia, farmers, agronomists and veterinarians. Numerical probabilities are not generally well-understood by non-specialists. For this reason we presented our results as maps using a verbal scale to communicate the probability that a deficiency is indicated by local soil conditions, or that a particular intervention is indicated. In the light of recent research on the effectiveness of the verbal scale used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to communicate probabilistic information we reported the geostatistical predictions as follows. First, we use the basic IPCC scale with intensifiers, but we also indicate the corresponding probabilities (as percentages) as recommended by Budescu et al. (2009). Second, we make it clear that the source of uncertainty in these predictions is the spatial variability of soil Co and Mn. The outcome under consideration is therefore that a particular soil management scenario would be indicated if the soil properties were known without error, possible uncertainty about the implications of particular soil

  17. Climate change implications for wind power resources in the Northwest United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sailor, David J.; Smith, Michael; Hart, Melissa

    2008-01-01

    Using statistically downscaled output from four general circulation models (GCMs), we have investigated scenarios of climate change impacts on wind power generation potential in a five-state region within the Northwest United States (Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming). All GCM simulations were extracted from the standardized set of runs created for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Analysis of model runs for the 20th century (20c3m) simulations revealed that the direct output of wind statistics from these models is of relatively poor quality compared with observations at airport weather stations within each state. When the GCM output was statistically downscaled, the resulting estimates of current climate wind statistics are substantially better. Furthermore, in looking at the GCM wind statistics for two IPCC future climate scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES A1B and A2), there was significant disagreement in the direct model output from the four GCMs. When statistical downscaling was applied to the future climate simulations, a more coherent story unfolded related to the likely impact of climate change on the region's wind power resource. Specifically, the results suggest that summertime wind speeds in the Northwest may decrease by 5-10%, while wintertime wind speeds may decrease by relatively little, or possibly increase slightly. When these wind statistics are projected to typical turbine hub heights and nominal wind turbine power curves are applied, the impact of the climate change scenarios on wind power may be as high as a 40% reduction in summertime generation potential. (author)

  18. Our knowledge on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turkenburg, W.C.; Van Wijk, A.J.M.

    1991-01-01

    A workshop was organised to evaluate and discuss the report 'Scientific Assessment of Climate Change (1990)' of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Thirty prominent Dutch experts in the field attended the workshop. The introductions and discussions held on our knowledge of climatic change as a result of the growth of the greenhouse effect caused by the emission of greenhouse gases from human actions are presented. It is concluded that the IPCC-report shows in a clear and balanced way the certainties and uncertainties in our knowledge of climate change. There is a large chance that the earth's climate will change considerably, if the policy remains unamended. 15 figs., 2 apps

  19. Projected Changes in Kppen Climate Types in the 21st Century over China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHI Ying; GAO Xue-Jie; WU Jia

    2012-01-01

    Future changes in the climate regimes over China as measured by the Kppen climate classification are reported in this paper. The analysis is based on a high-resolution climate change simulation conducted by a regional climate model (the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) RegCM3) driven by the global model of Center for Climate System Research (CCSR)/National Institute for Environment Studies (NIES)/Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) MIROC3.2_hires (the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. Validation of the model performances is presented first. The results show that RegCM3 reproduces the present-day distribution of the Kppen climate types well. Significant changes of the types are found in the future over China, following the simulated warming and precipitation changes. In southern China, the change is characterized by the replacement of subtropical humid (Cr) by subtropical winter-dry (Cw). A pronounced decrease of the cold climate types is found over China, e.g., tundra (Ft) over the Tibetan Plateau and sub-arctic continental (Ec) over northeast China. The changes are usually greater in the end compared with the middle of the 21st century.

  20. Trade Liberalization and Climate Change: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impacts on Global Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katrin Rehdanz

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the A1B and A2 scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on global agriculture, and its interactions with trade liberalization, as proposed for the Doha Development Round. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Significant reductions in agricultural tariffs lead to modest changes in regional water use. Patterns are non-linear. On the regional level, water use may go up for partial liberalization, and down for more complete liberalization. This is because different crops respond differently to tariff reductions, and because trade and competition matter too. Moreover, trade liberalization tends to reduce water use in water scarce regions, and increase water use in water abundant regions, even though water markets do not exist in most countries. Considering impacts of climate change, the results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall over time while food prices increase. Larger changes are observed under the SRES A2 scenario for the medium term (2020 and under the SRES A1B scenario for the long term (2050. Combining scenarios of future climate change with trade liberalization, countries are affected differently. However, the overall effect on welfare does not change much.

  1. Effect-directed analysis for estrogenic compounds in a fluvial sediment sample using transgenic cyp19a1b-GFP zebrafish embryos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fetter, Eva; Krauss, Martin; Brion, François; Kah, Olivier; Scholz, Stefan; Brack, Werner

    2014-09-01

    Xenoestrogens may persist in the environment by binding to sediments or suspended particulate matter serving as long-term reservoir and source of exposure, particularly for organisms living in or in contact with sediments. In this study, we present for the first time an effect-directed analysis (EDA) for identifying estrogenic compounds in a sediment sample using embryos of a transgenic reporter fish strain. In the tg(cyp19a1b-GFP) transgenic zebrafish strain, the expression of GFP (green fluorescent protein) in the brain is driven by an oestrogen responsive element in the promoter of the cyp19a1b (aromatase) gene. The selected sediment sample of the Czech river Bilina had already been analysed in a previous EDA using the yeast oestrogen screening assay and had revealed fractions containing estrogenic compounds. When normal phase HPLC (high performance liquid chromatography) fractionation was used for the separation of the sediment sample, the biotest with transgenic fish embryos revealed two estrogenic fractions. Chemical analysis of candidate compounds in these sediment fractions suggested alkylphenols and estrone as candidate compounds responsible for the observed estrogenic effect. Alkylphenol concentrations could partially explain the estrogenicity of the fractions. However, xenoestrogens below the analytical detection limit or non-targeted estrogenic compounds have probably also contributed to the sample's estrogenic potency. The results indicated the suitability of the tg(cyp19a1b-GFP) fish embryo for an integrated chemical-biological analysis of estrogenic effects. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Evaluation of cloud fraction and its radiative effect simulated by IPCC AR4 global models against ARM surface observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Qian

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Cloud Fraction (CF is the dominant modulator of radiative fluxes. In this study, we evaluate CF simulated in the IPCC AR4 GCMs against ARM long-term ground-based measurements, with a focus on the vertical structure, total amount of cloud and its effect on cloud shortwave transmissivity. Comparisons are performed for three climate regimes as represented by the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM sites: Southern Great Plains (SGP, Manus, Papua New Guinea and North Slope of Alaska (NSA. Our intercomparisons of three independent measurements of CF or sky-cover reveal that the relative differences are usually less than 10% (5% for multi-year monthly (annual mean values, while daily differences are quite significant. The total sky imager (TSI produces smaller total cloud fraction (TCF compared to a radar/lidar dataset for highly cloudy days (CF > 0.8, but produces a larger TCF value than the radar/lidar for less cloudy conditions (CF < 0.3. The compensating errors in lower and higher CF days result in small biases of TCF between the vertically pointing radar/lidar dataset and the hemispheric TSI measurements as multi-year data is averaged. The unique radar/lidar CF measurements enable us to evaluate seasonal variation of cloud vertical structures in the GCMs.

    Both inter-model deviation and model bias against observation are investigated in this study. Another unique aspect of this study is that we use simultaneous measurements of CF and surface radiative fluxes to diagnose potential discrepancies among the GCMs in representing other cloud optical properties than TCF. The results show that the model-observation and inter-model deviations have similar magnitudes for the TCF and the normalized cloud effect, and these deviations are larger than those in surface downward solar radiation and cloud transmissivity. This implies that other dimensions of cloud in addition to cloud amount, such as cloud optical thickness and

  3. Predictions of potential geographical distribution and quality of Schisandra sphenanthera under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanlong Guo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate change will significantly affect plant distribution as well as the quality of medicinal plants. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats of plants through species distribution models (SDMs, few of them have incorporated the change of effective content of medicinal plants. Schisandra sphenanthera Rehd. et Wils. is an endangered traditional Chinese medical plant which is mainly located in the Qinling Mountains. Combining fuzzy theory and a maximum entropy model, we obtained current spatial distribution of quality assessment for S. spenanthera. Moreover, the future quality and distribution of S. spenanthera were also projected for the periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under three different climate change scenarios (SRES-A1B, SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The results showed that the moderately suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera under all climate change scenarios remained relatively stable in the study area. The highly suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera would gradually decrease in the future and a higher decline rate of the highly suitable habitat area would occur under climate change scenarios SRES-A1B and SRES-A2. The result suggested that in the study area, there would be no more highly suitable habitat areas for S. sphenanthera when the annual mean temperature exceeds 20 °C or its annual precipitation exceeds 1,200 mm. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of S. sphenanthera and can be taken as a reference for habitat suitability assessment research for other medicinal plants.

  4. Effects of IPCC SRES* emissions scenarios on river runoff: a global perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. W. Arnell

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes an assessment of the implications of future climate change for river runoff across the entire world, using six climate models which have been driven by the SRES emissions scenarios. Streamflow is simulated at a spatial resolution of 0.5°x0.5° using a macro-scale hydrological model, and summed to produce total runoff for almost 1200 catchments. The effects of climate change have been compared with the effects of natural multi-decadal climatic variability, as determined from a long unforced climate simulation using HadCM3. By the 2020s, change in runoff due to climate change in approximately a third of the catchments is less than that due to natural variability but, by the 2080s, this falls to between 10 and 30%. The climate models produce broadly similar changes in runoff, with increases in high latitudes, east Africa and south and east Asia, and decreases in southern and eastern Europe, western Russia, north Africa and the Middle East, central and southern Africa, much of North America, most of South America, and south and east Asia. The pattern of change in runoff is largely determined by simulated change in precipitation, offset by a general increase in evaporation. There is little difference in the pattern of change between different emissions scenarios (for a given model, and only by the 2080s is there evidence that the magnitudes of change in runoff vary, with emissions scenario A1FI producing the greatest change and B1 the smallest. The inter-annual variability in runoff increases in most catchments due to climate change — even though the inter-annual variability in precipitation is not changed — and the frequency of flow below the current 10-year return period minimum annual runoff increases by a factor of three in Europe and southern Africa and of two across North America. Across most of the world climate change does not alter the timing of flows through the year but, in the marginal zone between cool and

  5. model prediction of maize yield responses to climate change

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prof. Adipala Ekwamu

    identified in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report (IPCC-TAR) as a major .... carbon dioxide concentration and management ... address conditions where water is a key limiting ... Laboratory, United States.

  6. Climate change and the biosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    F. Stuart Chapin

    2008-01-01

    Scientific assessments now clearly demonstrate the ecologic and societal consequences of human induced climate change, as detailed by the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Global warming spells danger for Earth's biomes, which in turn play an important role in climate change. On the following pages, you will read about some of...

  7. Anti-human neutrophil antigen-1a, -1b, and -2 antibodies in neonates and children with immune neutropenias analyzed by extracted granulocyte antigen immunofluorescence assay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onodera, Rie; Kurita, Emi; Taniguchi, Kikuyo; Karakawa, Shuhei; Okada, Satoshi; Kihara, Hirotaka; Fujii, Teruhisa; Kobayashi, Masao

    2017-11-01

    Anti-human neutrophil antigen (HNA) antibodies have been implicated in the development of neonatal alloimmune neutropenia (NAN) and autoimmune neutropenia (AIN). There are many conventional assay methods that detect anti-HNA antibodies. However, a method to measure multiple samples and detect several anti-HNA antibodies simultaneously is needed. We developed a new method, the extracted granulocyte antigen immunofluorescence assay (EGIFA), to analyze anti-HNA-1a, -1b, and -2 antibodies in sera. The results obtained by EGIFA were evaluated in comparison with those from several standard assay methods. Anti-HNA antibodies in serum samples from nine familial cases with suspected NAN (n = 19) and children with suspected AIN (n = 88) were also measured by EGIFA. The evaluation of nine serum samples with anti-HNA antibodies suggested that EGIFA demonstrated equivalent specificity and superior sensitivity to monoclonal antibody-specific immobilization of granulocyte antigens and had comparable sensitivity to the granulocyte indirect immunofluorescence test. EGIFA successfully detected anti-HNA-1a or -1b antibodies in seven of nine familial cases with suspected NAN. EGIFA detected anti-HNA antibodies in 40.9% of children with suspected AIN. Among them, isolated anti-HNA-1a or -1b antibody was detected in 4.5 or 12.5% of children, respectively, and anti-HNA-2 antibody was identified in 3.4% of children. The 30.8% (16 of 52) of children negative for anti-HNA antibody by EGIFA were positive for anti-HLA antibody. EGIFA facilitated the measurement of anti-HNA-1a, -1b, and/or -2 antibodies in sera. The prompt measurement of anti-HNA antibodies will improve the diagnosis and clinical management of patients with suspected NAN or AIN. © 2017 AABB.

  8. Communicating uncertainty: lessons learned and suggestions for climate change assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patt, A.; Dessai, S.

    2005-01-01

    Assessments of climate change face the task of making information about uncertainty accessible and useful to decision-makers. The literature in behavior economics provides many examples of how people make decisions under conditions of uncertainty relying on inappropriate heuristics, leading to inconsistent and counterproductive choices. Modern risk communication practices recommend a number of methods to overcome these hurdles, which have been recommended for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports. This paper evaluates the success of the most recent IPCC approach to uncertainty communication, based on a controlled survey of climate change experts. Evaluating the results from the survey, and from a similar survey recently conducted among university students, the paper suggests that the most recent IPCC approach leaves open the possibility for biased and inconsistent responses to the information. The paper concludes by suggesting ways to improve the approach for future IPCC assessment reports. (authors)

  9. Al Gore' Inconvenient Truth, where? The IPCC report provides the answer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeiler, W.

    2007-01-01

    The climate is changing. Extreme weather conditions occur with greater frequency. In the Netherlands, for example, there have been heat waves, the drought of 2003, exceptional rainstorms and, in 2004, the wettest August in 150 years. The populations of developing countries and vulnerable areas such as the Netherlands will bear the consequences of climate change. The impact on the natural environment will also be severe. Some flora and fauna will extinct while others will proliferate. The outcome will be a strong decline in biodiversity [nl

  10. Decadal Recruitment and Mortality of Ponderosa pine Predicted for the 21st Century Under five Downscaled Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ironside, K. E.; Cole, K. L.; Eischeid, J. K.; Garfin, G. M.; Shaw, J. D.; Cobb, N. S.

    2008-12-01

    Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa var. scopulorum) is the dominant conifer in higher elevation regions of the southwestern United States. Because this species is so prominent, southwestern montane ecosystems will be significantly altered if this species is strongly affected by future climate changes. These changes could be highly challenging for land management agencies. In order to model the consequences of future climates, 20th Century recruitment events and mortality for ponderosa pine were characterized using measures of seasonal water balance (precipitation - potential evapotranspiration). These relationships, assuming they will remain unchanged, were then used to predict 21st Century changes in ponderosa pine occurrence in the southwest. Twenty-one AR4 IPCC General Circulation Model (GCM) A1B simulation results were ranked on their ability to simulate the later 20th Century (1950-2000 AD) precipitation seasonality, spatial patterns, and quantity in the western United States. Among the top ranked GCMs, five were selected for downscaling to a 4 km grid that represented a range in predictions in terms of changes in water balance. Predicted decadal changes in southwestern ponderosa pine for the 21st Century for these five climate change scenarios were calculated using a multiple quadratic logistic regression model. Similar models of other western tree species (Pinus edulis, Yucca brevifolia) predicted severe contractions, especially in the southern half of their ranges. However, the results for Ponderosa pine suggested future expansions throughout its range to both higher and lower elevations, as well as very significant expansions northward.

  11. Expected changes in future temperature extremes and their elevation dependency over the Yellow River source region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Hu

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM and the outputs from two global climate models, we investigate possible changes in mean and extreme temperature indices and their elevation dependency over the Yellow River source region for the two future periods 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 under the IPCC SRES A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios. Changes in interannual variability of mean and extreme temperature indices are also analyzed. The validation results show that SDSM performs better in reproducing the maximum temperature-related indices than the minimum temperature-related indices. The projections show that by the middle and end of the 21st century all parts of the study region may experience increases in both mean and extreme temperature in all seasons, along with an increase in the frequency of hot days and warm nights and with a decrease in frost days. By the end of the 21st century, interannual variability increases in all seasons for the frequency of hot days and warm nights and in spring for frost days while it decreases for frost days in summer. Autumn demonstrates pronounced elevation-dependent changes in which around six out of eight indices show significant increasing changes with elevation.

  12. Franck-Condon factors perturbed by damped harmonic oscillators: Solvent enhanced X 1Ag ↔ A1B1u absorption and fluorescence spectra of perylene

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Chen-Wen; Zhu, Chaoyuan; Lin, Sheng-Hsien; Yang, Ling; Yu, Jian-Guo

    2014-01-01

    Damped harmonic oscillators are utilized to calculate Franck-Condon factors within displaced harmonic oscillator approximation. This is practically done by scaling unperturbed Hessian matrix that represents local modes of force constants for molecule in gaseous phase, and then by diagonalizing perturbed Hessian matrix it results in direct modification of Huang–Rhys factors which represent normal modes of solute molecule perturbed by solvent environment. Scaling parameters are empirically introduced for simulating absorption and fluorescence spectra of an isolated solute molecule in solution. The present method is especially useful for simulating vibronic spectra of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon molecules in which hydrogen atom vibrations in solution can be scaled equally, namely the same scaling factor being applied to all hydrogen atoms in polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. The present method is demonstrated in simulating solvent enhanced X 1 A g ↔ A 1 B 1u absorption and fluorescence spectra of perylene (medium-sized polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon) in benzene solution. It is found that one of six active normal modes v 10 is actually responsible to the solvent enhancement of spectra observed in experiment. Simulations from all functionals (TD) B3LYP, (TD) B3LYP35, (TD) B3LYP50, and (TD) B3LYP100 draw the same conclusion. Hence, the present method is able to adequately reproduce experimental absorption and fluorescence spectra in both gas and solution phases

  13. Successful ABO-Incompatible Renal Transplantation:  Blood Group A1B Donor Into A2B Recipient With Anti-A1 Isoagglutinins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fadeyi, Emmanuel A; Stratta, Robert J; Farney, Alan C; Pomper, Gregory J

    2016-08-01

    Transplantation of the blood group A2B in a recipient was successfully performed in the setting of receiving a deceased donor kidney from an "incompatible" A1B donor. The donor and recipient were both typed for ABO blood group, including ABO genotyping. The donor and recipient were tested for ABO, non-ABO, and human leukocyte antigen (HLA) antibodies. The donor and recipient were typed for HLA antigens, including T- and B-flow cytometry crossmatch tests. The recipient's RBCs were negative with A1 lectin, and immunoglobulin G anti-A1 was demonstrated in the recipient's plasma. The donor-recipient pair was a four-antigen HLA mismatch, but final T- and B-flow cytometry crossmatch tests were compatible. The transplant procedure was uneventful; the patient experienced immediate graft function with no episodes of rejection or readmissions more than 2 years later. It may be safe to transplant across the A1/A2 blood group AB mismatch barrier in the setting of low titer anti-A1 isoagglutinins without the need for pretransplant desensitization even if the antibody produced reacts with anti-human globulin. © American Society for Clinical Pathology, 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. Global estimates of carbon stock changes in living forest biomass: EDGARv4.3 - time series from 1990 to 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrescu, A. M. R.; Abad-Viñas, R.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Blujdea, V. N. B.; Grassi, G.

    2012-08-01

    While the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) focuses on global estimates for the full set of anthropogenic activities, the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector might be the most diverse and most challenging to cover consistently for all countries of the world. Parties to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are required to provide periodic estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, following the latest approved methodological guidance by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The current study aims to consistently estimate the carbon (C) stock changes from living forest biomass for all countries of the world, in order to complete the LULUCF sector in EDGAR. In order to derive comparable estimates for developing and developed countries, it is crucial to use a single methodology with global applicability. Data for developing countries are generally poor, such that only the Tier 1 methods from either the IPCC Good Practice Guide for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (GPG-LULUCF) 2003 or the IPCC 2006 Guidelines can be applied to these countries. For this purpose, we applied the IPCC Tier 1 method at global level following both IPCC GPG-LULUCF 2003 and IPCC 2006, using spatially coarse activity data (i.e. area, obtained combining two different global forest maps: the Global Land Cover map and the eco-zones subdivision of the Global Ecological Zone (GEZ) map) in combination with the IPCC default C stocks and C stock change factors. Results for the C stock changes were calculated separately for gains, harvest, fires (Global Fire Emissions Database version 3, GFEDv.3) and net deforestation for the years 1990, 2000, 2005 and 2010. At the global level, results obtained with the two sets of IPCC guidance differed by about 40 %, due to different assumptions and default factors. The IPCC Tier 1 method unavoidably introduced high uncertainties due to the "globalization" of parameters. When the

  15. A Rethinking of the Production Approach in IPCC: Its Objectiveness in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongqiang Yang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The trade of harvested wood products (HWPs and their feedstock increasingly affects the dynamics of the complete national HWP carbon pool ignored by the Production Approach (PA, the current universal method, proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Existing research also overlooks the inherent factors that lead to the non-objectiveness of PA that affects the potential carbon trade and the sustainable use of forestry resources. This study aimed to investigate such inherent factors through a deductive derivation of PA and the Stock-Change Approach (SCA, based on which an empirical study on China was conducted to rethink the objectiveness of PA in the complete national HWP carbon pool. The deductive derivation indicated that the inherent factors rely on the balance between coefficients that describe the relationship between HWP trade and production and the relationship between the corresponding feedstock trade and production. The empirical study further illustrated that the dynamics of balance between coefficients negatively influence the objectiveness of PA. The absolute objectiveness of this approach was constantly weakened in the past 55 years and may potentially occur yet again in the future despite an improvement in its annual relative objectiveness.

  16. Variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the last millennium and two IPCC scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ortega, Pablo; Montoya, Marisa; Gonzalez-Rouco, Fidel [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria, Dpto. Astrofisica y Ciencias de la Atmosfera/Instituto de Geociencias, Facultad de Ciencias Fisicas, Madrid (Spain); Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria, Instituto de Geociencias (UCM-CSIC), Facultad de Ciencias Fisicas, Madrid (Spain); Mignot, Juliette [IPSL/LOCEAN, UPMC/CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Legutke, Stephanie [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany)

    2012-05-15

    The variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is investigated in several climate simulations with the ECHO-G atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, including two forced integrations of the last millennium, one millennial-long control run, and two future scenario simulations of the twenty-first century. This constitutes a new framework in which the AMOC response to future climate change conditions is addressed in the context of both its past evolution and its natural variability. The main mechanisms responsible for the AMOC variability at interannual and multidecadal time scales are described. At high frequencies, the AMOC is directly responding to local changes in the Ekman transport, associated with three modes of climate variability: El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the East Atlantic (EA) pattern. At low frequencies, the AMOC is largely controlled by convection activity south of Greenland. Again, the atmosphere is found to play a leading role in these variations. Positive anomalies of convection are preceded in 1 year by intensified zonal winds, associated in the forced runs to a positive NAO-like pattern. Finally, the sensitivity of the AMOC to three different forcing factors is investigated. The major impact is associated with increasing greenhouse gases, given their strong and persistent radiative forcing. Starting in the Industrial Era and continuing in the future scenarios, the AMOC experiences a final decrease of up to 40% with respect to the preindustrial average. Also, a weak but significant AMOC strengthening is found in response to the major volcanic eruptions, which produce colder and saltier surface conditions over the main convection regions. In contrast, no meaningful impact of the solar forcing on the AMOC is observed. Indeed, solar irradiance only affects convection in the Nordic Seas, with a marginal contribution to the AMOC variability in the ECHO-G runs. (orig.)

  17. Understanding climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fellous, J.L.; Gautier, C.; Andre, J.C.; Balstad, R.; Boucher, O.; Brasseur, G.; Chahine, M.T.; Chanin, M.L.; Ciais, P.; Corell, W.; Duplessy, J.C.; Hourcade, J.C.; Jouzel, J.; Kaufman, Y.J.; Laval, K.; Le Treut, H.; Minster, J.F.; Moore, B. III; Morel, P.; Rasool, S.I.; Remy, F.; Smith, R.C.; Somerville, R.C.J.; Wood, E.F.; Wood, H.; Wunsch, C.

    2007-01-01

    Climatic change is gaining ground and with no doubt is stimulated by human activities. It is therefore urgent to better understand its nature, importance and potential impacts. The chapters of this book have been written by US and French experts of the global warming question. After a description of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, GIEC in French) consensus, they present the past and present researches on each of the main component of the climate system, on the question of climatic change impacts and on the possible answers. The conclusion summarizes the results of each chapter. Content: presentation of the IPCC; greenhouse effect, radiation balance and clouds; atmospheric aerosols and climatic change; global water cycle and climate; influence of climatic change on the continental hydrologic cycle; ocean and climate; ice and climate; global carbon cycle; about some impacts of climatic change on Europe and the Atlantic Ocean; interaction between atmospheric chemistry and climate; climate and society, the human dimension. (J.S.)

  18. Application of the IPCC model to a Brazilian landfill: First results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Penteado, Roger; Cavalli, Massimo; Magnano, Enrico; Chiampo, Fulvia

    2012-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change gave a methodology to estimate the methane emissions from Municipal Solid Wastes landfills, based on a First Order Decay (FOD) model that assumes biodegradation kinetics depending on the type of wastes. This model can be used to estimate both the National greenhouse gas emissions in the industrialized countries as well as the reductions of these emissions in the developing ones when the Clean Development Mechanism, as defined by the Kyoto Protocol, is implemented. In this paper, the FOD model has been use to evaluate the biogas flow rates emitted by a Brazilian landfill and the results have been compared to the extracted ones: some first results can be useful to evidence the weight of key parameters and do a correct use of the model. - Highlights: ► Landfill biogas is greenhouse gas and fuel at the same time. ► In developing countries its collection can implement Kyoto Protocol mechanisms. ► Biogas collection and exploiting become part of energy policy. ► Project economical balance is based on reliable estimates of generated quantities.

  19. CHANGE HAS ARRIVED

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙佳慧

    2016-01-01

    The planet is warming at an alarming rate,and more concise data means that the effects can be better measured.Whether it’s building bridges in cities or preparing for floods in the countryside,the numbers are showing that the concern over climate change is no longer just handwringing.China has experienced noticeable climate change over the past century.According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)

  20. Efficient Maize and Sunflower Multi-year Mapping with NDVI Time Series of HJ-1A/1B in Hetao Irrigation District of Inner Mongolia, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, B.; Shang, S.

    2016-12-01

    Food shortage is one of the major challenges that human beings are facing. It is urgent to improve the monitoring of the plantation and distribution of the main crops to solve the following economic and social issues. Recently, with the extensive use of remote sensing satellite data, it has provided favorable conditions for crop identification in large irrigation district with complex planting structure. Difference of different crop phenology is the main basis for crop identification, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time-series could better delineate crop phenology cycle. Therefore, the key of crop identification is to obtain high quality NDVI time-series. MODIS and Landsat TM satellite images are the most frequently used, however, neither of them could guarantee high temporal and spatial resolutions at once. Accordingly, this paper makes use of NDVI time-series extracted from China Environment Satellites data, which has two-day-repeat temporal and 30m spatial resolutions. The NDVI time-series are fitted with an asymmetric logistic curve, the fitting effect is good and the correlation coefficient is greater than 0.9. The phonological parameters are derived from NDVI fitting curves, and crop identification is carried out by different relation ellipses between NDVI and its phonological parameters of different crops. This paper takes Hetao Irrigation District of Inner Mongolia as an example, to identify multi-year maize and sunflower in the district, and the identification result is good. Compared with the official statistics, the relative errors are both lower than 5%. The results show that the NDVI time-series dataset derived from HJ-1A/1B CCD could delineate the crop phenology cycle accurately and demonstrate its application in crop identification in irrigated district.

  1. A critical analysis of the 2014 IPCC report on capital cost of mitigation and of renewable energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trainer, Ted

    2017-01-01

    The Report by the IPCC Working Group 3 on mitigation has been widely reported as showing that a 430 – 480 ppm emissions target can be achieved at a low investment cost in relation to GDP. However there are several reasons why the Report cannot be regarded as having established these claims, mainly to do with the very few sources referred to on the crucial cost issues, the problems evident in those sources, and difficulties encountered when investment sums allocated to various sectors are examined. An exploration of the possible investment required by the renewable energy sector indicates that the costs associated with achieving desired emissions targets would be very high. This strengthens the case that effective policies for dealing with climate and other global problems cannot be achieved unless there is transition from consumer societies committed to affluence and growth. - Highlights: • The logic and structure of the Report re clarified. • Only five pages in Chapter 16 deal with renewable system cost estimates. • The core conclusions are based on only about three references. • These studies are open to fundamental criticism. • An alternative approach indicates higher system costs than the Report claims.

  2. Effects of emissions change, climate change and long-range transport on regional modeling of future U.S. particulate matter pollution and speciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Hao; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Wuebbles, Donald J.

    2018-04-01

    This study investigates the future U.S. PM2.5 pollution under multiple emissions scenarios, climate states, and long-range transport (LRT) effects using the regional Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model integrated with a regional climate model. CMAQ with fixed chemical lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) successfully reproduces the present-day PM2.5 pollution and its major species in rural and suburban areas, but has some discrepancies in urban areas such as the Los Angeles Basin, where detailed emissions and meteorology conditions cannot be resolved by the 30 km grid. Its performance is slightly worsened when using dynamic chemical LBCs from global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, which provide cleaner conditions into the CMAQ lateral boundaries. Under future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios, CMAQ projects large PM2.5 reductions (∼40% for A1B and ∼20% for A1Fi scenario) in the eastern United States, but slight to moderate increases (∼5% for A1B and ∼10% for A1Fi) in the western United States. The projected increases are particularly large (up to 30%) near the Mexico-U.S. border, suggesting that Mexico is a major source for future U.S. PM2.5 pollution. The effect from climate change alone is estimated to increase PM2.5 levels ubiquitously (∼5% for both A1B and A1Fi) over the United States, except for a small decrease in the Houston, Texas area, where anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) emissions dominate. This climate penalty, however, is substantially smaller than effects of emissions change, especially in the eastern United States. Future PM2.5 pollution is affected substantially (up to -20%) by changes in SO2 emissions and moderately (3-5%) by changes in NOx and NH3 emissions. The long-range transport (LRT) effects, which are estimated by comparing CMAQ simulations with fixed and dynamic LBCs, are regional dependent, causing up to 10-20% decrease over the western United

  3. From molecule to behavior: Brain aromatase (cyp19a1b) characterization, expression analysis and its relation with social status and male agonistic behavior in a Neotropical cichlid fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramallo, Martín R; Morandini, Leonel; Birba, Agustina; Somoza, Gustavo M; Pandolfi, Matías

    2017-03-01

    The enzyme aromatase, responsible for the conversion of C19 androgens to C18 estrogens, exists as two paralogue copies in teleost fish: Cyp19a1a mostly expressed in the gonads, referred as gonadal aromatase, and Cyp19a1b, mostly expressed in the brain, accordingly known as brain aromatase. The neural localization of Cyp19a1b is greatly contained within the social behavior network and mesolimbic reward system in fish, suggesting a strong role of estrogen synthesis in the regulation of social behavior. In this work we aimed to analyze the variation in cyp19a1b expression in brain and pituitary of males of a highly social cichlid, Cichlasoma dimerus (locally known as chanchita), and its relation with inter-individual variability in agonistic behavior in a communal social environment. We first characterized chanchita's cyp19a1b mRNA and deduced amino acid sequence, which showed a high degree of conservation when compared to other teleost brain aromatase sequences, and its tissue expression patterns. Within the brain, Cyp19a1b was solely detected at putative radial glial cells of the forebrain, close to the brain ventricles. We then studied the relative expression levels of cyp19a1b by Real Time PCR in the brain and pituitary of males of different social status, territorial vs. non-territorial, and its relationship with an index of agonistic behavior. We found that even though, brain aromatase expression did not differ between types of males, pituitary cyp19a1b expression levels positively correlated with the index of agonistic behavior. This suggests a novel role of the pituitary in the regulation of social behavior by local estrogen synthesis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Climate change and future land use in the United States: an economic approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Haim; Ralph J. Alig; Andrew J. Plantinga; Brent Sohngen

    2011-01-01

    An econometric land-use model is used to project regional and national land-use changes in the United States under two IPCC emissions scenarios. The key driver of land-use change in the model is county-level measures of net returns to five major land uses. The net returns are modified for the IPCC scenarios according to assumed trends in population and income and...

  5. Uncertainties and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Gier, A.M.; Opschoor, J.B.; Van de Donk, W.B.H.J.; Hooimeijer, P.; Jepma, J.; Lelieveld, J.; Oerlemans, J.; Petersen, A.

    2008-01-01

    Which processes in the climate system are misunderstood? How are scientists dealing with uncertainty about climate change? What will be done with the conclusions of the recently published synthesis report of the IPCC? These and other questions were answered during the meeting 'Uncertainties and climate change' that was held on Monday 26 November 2007 at the KNAW in Amsterdam. This report is a compilation of all the presentations and provides some conclusions resulting from the discussions during this meeting. [mk] [nl

  6. Changes in snow cover over China in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shi Ying; Gao Xuejie; Wu Jia; Giorgi, Filippo

    2011-01-01

    On the basis of the climate change simulations conducted using a high resolution regional climate model, the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model, RegCM3, at 25 km grid spacing, future changes in snow cover over China are analyzed. The simulations are carried out for the period of 1951–2100 following the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. The results suggest good performances of the model in simulating the number of snow cover days and the snow cover depth, as well as the starting and ending dates of snow cover to the present day (1981–2000). Their spatial distributions and amounts show fair consistency between the simulation and observation, although with some discrepancies. In general, decreases in the number of snow cover days and the snow cover depth, together with postponed snow starting dates and advanced snow ending dates, are simulated for the future, except in some places where the opposite appears. The most dramatic changes are found over the Tibetan Plateau among the three major snow cover areas of Northeast, Northwest and the Tibetan Plateau in China.

  7. 2014-2016 Mt. Etna Ground deformation imaged by SISTEM approach using GPS and SENTINEL-1A/1B TOPSAR data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonforte, Alessandro; Guglielmino, Francesco; Puglisi, Giuseppe

    2017-04-01

    In the frame of the EC FP7 MED-SUV project (call FP7 ENV.2012.6.4-2), and thanks to the GEO-GSNL initiative, GPS data and SENTINEL 1A/1B TOPSAR acquired on Mt. Etna between October 2014 and November 2016 were analyzed. The SENTINEL data were used in order to combine and integrate them with GPS, and detail the ground deformation recorded by GPS on Mt. Etna, during the last two-year's volcanic activity. The Sentinel data were processed by GAMMA software, using a spectral diversity method and a procedure able to co-register the SENTINEL pairs with extremely high precision (processing, a new software architecture based on the hypervisor virtualization technology for the x64 versions of Windows has been implemented. The DInSAR results are analysed and successively used as input for the time series analysis using the StaMPS package. On December 28, 2014 eruptive activity resumed at Mt. Etna with a fire fountain activity feeding two lava flows spreading on the eastern and south-western upper flanks of the volcano, producing evident deformation at the summit of the volcano. GPS displacements and Sentinel-1A ascending interferogram were calculated in order to image the ground deformation pattern accompanying the eruption. The ground deformation pattern has been perfectly depicted by the GPS network, mainly affecting the uppermost part of the volcano edifice, with a strong decay of the deformation, according to a very shallow and strong dyke intrusion. The Sentinel 1A SAR data, covering the similar time spanning, confirmed that most of displacements are related to the dike intrusion, and evidenced a local gravity-driven motion of the western wall of the Valle del Bove, probably related to the dike intrusion. To monitor the temporal successive evolution of ground deformation, we performed an A-DInSAR SENTINEL analysis using the Small BAseline Subset (SBAS) approach included with the StaMPS processing package. The April 2015-December 2015, SBAS Time series, shown a volcano

  8. Climate change at global and regional scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dufresne, J.L.; Royer, J.F.

    2008-01-01

    In support of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that should appear in early 2007, modelling groups world-wide have performed a huge coordinated exercise of climate change runs for the 20. and 21. century. In this paper we present the results of the two french climate models, from CNRM and IPSL. In particular we emphasize the progress made since the previous IPCC report and we identify which results are comparable among models and which strongly differ. (authors)

  9. The understanding of world climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petit, M.

    2008-01-01

    After having recalled that the problem of global warming in relationship with human activities has been studied since the end of the nineteenth century and since then by different scientific programs, the author describes how the IPCC's or Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's report is produced. He briefly comments how Earth's temperature is determined and the various natural parameters which influence the climate on Earth. He recalls how the IPCC showed the actual influence of human activities, and which changes have actually been observed

  10. Future changes in tropical cyclone activity projected by multi-physics and multi-SST ensemble experiments using the 60-km-mesh MRI-AGCM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murakami, Hiroyuki [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)/Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan); University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, Honolulu, Hawaii (United States); Mizuta, Ryo; Shindo, Eiki [Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Climate Research Department, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)

    2012-11-15

    Uncertainties in projected future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity are investigated using future (2075-2099) ensemble projections of global warming under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. Twelve ensemble experiments are performed using three different cumulus convection schemes and four different assumptions for prescribed future sea surface temperatures (SSTs). All ensemble experiments consistently project significant reductions in global and hemispheric TC genesis numbers as well as reductions in TC frequency of occurrence (TCF) and TC genesis frequency (TGF) in the western North Pacific, South Indian Ocean, and South Pacific Ocean. TCF and TGF are projected to increase over the central Pacific which is consistent with the findings of Li et al. (2010). Inter-experimental variations of projected future changes in TGF and TC genesis number are caused mainly by differences in large-scale dynamical parameters and SST anomalies. Thermodynamic parameters are of secondary importance for variations in TGF and TC genesis number. These results imply that differences in SST spatial patterns can cause substantial variations and uncertainties in projected future changes of TGF and TC numbers at ocean-basin scales. (orig.)

  11. Climate change negotiations. COP-2 and beyond

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-09-01

    The Second Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP-2), which met in Geneva during July, 1996, was only a partial success when considered in relation to its avowed aims, gaining acceptance of the Second Assessment Report by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), producing an agreed Ministerial Declaration, making real advances towards a protocol, and agreeing Rules of Procedure. This paper describes the main aims of COP-2, consideration of and response to the IPCC`s Second Assessment Report, the COP-2 Ministerial Declaration, some significant statements by individual country delegations at COP-2, lack of progress on Rules of Procedure for the Conference, realization of returning the greenhouse gas emissions in industrialized countries based on the Montreal Protocol, differing views among countries to the Convention on a protocol, prospects for achieving agreement on a legally binding protocol at COP-3 planned for Kyoto, Japan in December, 1997, and recent scientific and technical findings.

  12. Adaptation to climate change. Key terms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levina, E.; Tirpak, D.

    2006-05-01

    Adaptation has become an important issue in international and domestic discussions on climate change. Numerous terms and concepts have come into common usage as a result of IPCC reports, discussions in the context of the UNFCCC and dialogs by the climate community at large. This paper examines the key adaptation terms and concepts used by the climate change community and other institutions. Conflicts and contradictions are noted with the aim of sensitizing different bodies to the differences, but particularly the Parties to the Convention and experts participating in the IPCC. Given the need to promote a common understanding among various stakeholders and the potential financial implications of various definitions, it appears important for the IPCC and the UNFCCC to work toward common definitions, at least for a core set of terms and concepts

  13. Climate change: Scientific background and process

    OpenAIRE

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Seip, Hans Martin; Skodvin, Tora

    2000-01-01

    The paper gives a brief description of natural and man-made forces behind climate change and outlines climate variations in the past together with a brief synopsis likely future impacts of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. The paper also gives a briefing on the background, organisation and functioning of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

  14. Climate change. Scientific background and process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Seip, Hans Martin; Skodvin, Tora

    1999-07-01

    The paper describes briefly the natural and man-made forces behind climate change and outlines climate variations in the past. It also discusses the future impact of anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases, and the background, organisation and functioning of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

  15. Assessment of tourism and recreation destinations under climate change conditions in Austria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matzarakis, Andreas; Haemmerle, Martin [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Endler, Christina [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Research Center Human Biometeorology, Freiburg (Germany). German Weather Service; Muthers, Stefan [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Bern Univ. (Switzerland). Climate and Environmental Physics; Bern Univ. (Switzerland). Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research; Koch, Elisabeth [Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamcis, Vienna (Austria)

    2012-04-15

    Tourism and recreation are important economic factors which are directly connected to weather and climate of a specific destination. Based on the observation network of the Central Institute of Meteorology and Geodynamics of Austria (ZAMG), data of 37 stations has been collected and analysed for tourism and recreation purposes. The analysis was based on long term data sets which were processed in relevant ways for tourism and recreation, resulting in frequency diagrams of Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) and precipitation. Additionally, we prepared the results according to the demands of tourism and recreation authorities and industry using the Climate-Tourism/Transfer-Information-Scheme (CTIS). Applying data from the regional climate models REMO and CLM we can provide information on future climate conditions in Austria's recreation areas. We chose two different time slices (2021-2050, 2071-2100) and IPCC emission scenarios (A1B, B1). The data was processed based on the threshold factors which are included in the CTIS (e.g. thermal comfort, heat stress, cold stress, sunshine, etc.). For the time slice 2021-2050 only moderate changes can be expected. But for 2071-2100 one can observe a distinct decrease of cold stress and the skiing potential. On the other hand, moderate increases of thermal comfort, heat stress, sultriness and sunshine are expected. No tendencies can be seen in precipitation and wind conditions. (orig.)

  16. Combating the effects of climatic change on forests by mitigation strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dieter Matthias

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Forests occur across diverse biomes, each of which shows a specific composition of plant communities associated with the particular climate regimes. Predicted future climate change will have impacts on the vulnerability and productivity of forests; in some regions higher temperatures will extend the growing season and thus improve forest productivity, while changed annual precipitation patterns may show disadvantageous effects in areas, where water availability is restricted. While adaptation of forests to predicted future climate scenarios has been intensively studied, less attention was paid to mitigation strategies such as the introduction of tree species well adapted to changing environmental conditions. Results We simulated the development of managed forest ecosystems in Germany for the time period between 2000 and 2100 under different forest management regimes and climate change scenarios. The management regimes reflect different rotation periods, harvesting intensities and species selection for reforestations. The climate change scenarios were taken from the IPCC's Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES. We used the scenarios A1B (rapid and successful economic development and B1 (high level of environmental and social consciousness combined with a globally coherent approach to a more sustainable development. Our results indicate that the effects of different climate change scenarios on the future productivity and species composition of German forests are minor compared to the effects of forest management. Conclusions The inherent natural adaptive capacity of forest ecosystems to changing environmental conditions is limited by the long life time of trees. Planting of adapted species and forest management will reduce the impact of predicted future climate change on forests.

  17. Calculation of probability density functions for temperature and precipitation change under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watterson, Ian G.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: he IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Meehl ef al. 2007) presents multi-model means of the CMIP3 simulations as projections of the global climate change over the 21st century under several SRES emission scenarios. To assess the possible range of change for Australia based on the CMIP3 ensemble, we can follow Whetton etal. (2005) and use the 'pattern scaling' approach, which separates the uncertainty in the global mean warming from that in the local change per degree of warming. This study presents several ways of representing these two factors as probability density functions (PDFs). The beta distribution, a smooth, bounded, function allowing skewness, is found to provide a useful representation of the range of CMIP3 results. A weighting of models based on their skill in simulating seasonal means in the present climate over Australia is included. Dessai ef al. (2005) and others have used Monte-Carlo sampling to recombine such global warming and scaled change factors into values of net change. Here, we use a direct integration of the product across the joint probability space defined by the two PDFs. The result is a cumulative distribution function (CDF) for change, for each variable, location, and season. The median of this distribution provides a best estimate of change, while the 10th and 90th percentiles represent a likely range. The probability of exceeding a specified threshold can also be extracted from the CDF. The presentation focuses on changes in Australian temperature and precipitation at 2070 under the A1B scenario. However, the assumption of linearity behind pattern scaling allows results for different scenarios and times to be simply obtained. In the case of precipitation, which must remain non-negative, a simple modification of the calculations (based on decreases being exponential with warming) is used to avoid unrealistic results. These approaches are currently being used for the new CSIRO/ Bureau of Meteorology climate projections

  18. The 5-HT1A/1B-receptor agonist eltoprazine increases both catecholamine release in the prefrontal cortex and dopamine release in the nucleus accumbens and decreases motivation for reward and "waiting" impulsivity, but increases "stopping" impulsivity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Korte, S. Mechiel; Prins, Jolanda; van den Bergh, Filip S.; Oosting, Ronald S.; Dupree, Rudy; Korte-Bouws, Gerdien A. H.; Westphal, Koen G. C.; Olivier, Berend; Denys, Damiaan A.; Garland, Alexis; Güntürkün, Onur

    2017-01-01

    The 5-HT1A/1B-receptor agonist eltoprazine has a behavioral drug signature that resembles that of a variety of psychostimulant drugs, despite the differences in receptor binding profile. These psychostimulants are effective in treating impulsivity disorders, most likely because they increase

  19. Climate change, environment and development

    OpenAIRE

    Okereke, Chukwumerije; Massaquoi, Abu-Bakar S.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change, a quintessential environmental problem, is generally recognised as the most important development challenge in the 21st century (IPCC, 2014). In addition to acknowledging its many significant direct consequences, climate change is increasingly used to frame discussions on other important global challenges, such as health, energy and food security. This chapter provides understanding of the intricate and complex relationship between climate change, environment and development.

  20. Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Christine M; Caswell, Hal; Runge, Michael C; Regehr, Eric V; Amstrup, Steve C; Stirling, Ian

    2010-10-01

    The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in lambda in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log lambdas, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log lambdas approximately - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population

  1. Climate change threatens polar bear populations: A stochastic demographic analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, C.M.; Caswell, H.; Runge, M.C.; Regehr, E.V.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, I.

    2010-01-01

    The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in ?? in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log ??s, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log ??s ' - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic

  2. Is a Breakthrough on Climate Change Governance on the Horizon?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Figueroa, Maria Josefina

    The recently released Fifth Assessment report of the IPCC has highlighted again with unprecedented scope and insight the urgency of addressing climate change. The international community has pledged to devise the next international agreement on climate change by 2015, while the EU and in particular...... the Scandinavian countries have forged ahead advancing a variety of policies to respond to climate change. Similarly, regions, municipalities, and private actors across the world are also contributing to climate governance. This paper asks whether the world is reaching a tipping point where a breakthrough...... on climate change governance is near?. The answer is approached by contrasting the governance model within which the IPCC operates and the conditions of policy and governance interaction toward the more scientific foundations laid out by IPCC, with the range of multilateral climate governance...

  3. Climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change (including climate variability) refers to regional or global changes in mean climate state or in patterns of climate variability over decades to millions of years often identified using statistical methods and sometimes referred to as changes in long-term weather conditions (IPCC, 2012). Climate is influenced by changes in continent-ocean configurations due to plate tectonic processes, variations in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt and precession, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, solar variability, volcanism, internal variability resulting from interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice (glaciers, small ice caps, ice sheets, and sea ice), and anthropogenic activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use and their effects on carbon cycling.

  4. Climate Change and water resources: Scenarios of low-flow conditions in the Upper Danube River Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mauser, W; Marke, T; Stoeber, S

    2008-01-01

    Global Climate Change will have regional impacts on the water resources and will force water resources managers and farmers to adapt. Both low-flow and its duration are critical hydrological parameters, which strongly influence the state of aquatic ecosystems as well as power production, reservoir management and industry. Impacts of future climate change is analysed using scenarios for the change of meteorological drivers and regional hydrological simulation models. The project GLOWA-Danube (www.glowa-danube.de) develops integrative modelling techniques combining process knowledge from both natural and social sciences to examine the sustainability of regional water systems as well as water management alternatives in the Upper Danube watershed (A = 77000 km 2 ). Special emphasis is given to changes in low-flow condition. DANUBIA describes the regional water cycle both physical and spatially distributed. It consists of a collection of tightly coupled models, which strictly preserve energy and matter and are not calibrated to maximise their overall predictive abilities. The paper demonstrates that DANUBIA can reproduce the daily discharge for the time period from 1971-2003 with a Nash-Suttcliffe coefficient of 0.84 (gauge Achleiten). Based on a statistical climate simulator 12 realisations of the IPCC A1B climate scenario were used to investigate impacts of climate change during the simulation period of 2011-2060. The change in discharge and frequency of occurrences of low-flow in the watershed for the scenario ensemble were analysed for the outlet gauge. The analysis shows that strong changes were simulated in the frequency of occurrences of low-flow conditions. The changing climate gradually reduces a 50-years NM7Q discharge of today to less than half of its discharge in the year 2060. These results clearly indicate that the expected climate change will strongly alter the low-flow conditions in the Upper Danube watershed.

  5. Projected rainfall and temperature changes over Malaysia at the end of the 21st century based on PRECIS modelling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loh, Jui Le; Tangang, Fredolin; Juneng, Liew; Hein, David; Lee, Dong-In

    2016-05-01

    This study investigates projected changes in rainfall and temperature over Malaysia by the end of the 21st century based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2, A1B and B2 emission scenarios using the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS). The PRECIS regional climate model (HadRM3P) is configured in 0.22° × 0.22° horizontal grid resolution and is forced at the lateral boundaries by the UKMO-HadAM3P and UKMOHadCM3Q0 global models. The model performance in simulating the present-day climate was assessed by comparing the modelsimulated results to the Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) dataset. Generally, the HadAM3P/PRECIS and HadCM3Q0/PRECIS simulated the spatio-temporal variability structure of both temperature and rainfall reasonably well, albeit with the presence of cold biases. The cold biases appear to be associated with the systematic error in the HadRM3P. The future projection of temperature indicates widespread warming over the entire country by the end of the 21st century. The projected temperature increment ranges from 2.5 to 3.9°C, 2.7 to 4.2°C and 1.7 to 3.1°C for A2, A1B and B2 scenarios, respectively. However, the projection of rainfall at the end of the 21st century indicates substantial spatio-temporal variation with a tendency for drier condition in boreal winter and spring seasons while wetter condition in summer and fall seasons. During the months of December to May, ~20-40% decrease of rainfall is projected over Peninsular Malaysia and Borneo, particularly for the A2 and B2 emission scenarios. During the summer months, rainfall is projected to increase by ~20-40% across most regions in Malaysia, especially for A2 and A1B scenarios. The spatio-temporal variations in the projected rainfall can be related to the changes in the weakening monsoon circulations, which in turn alter the patterns of

  6. Comparative evaluation of the IPCC AR5 CMIP5 versus the AR4 CMIP3 model ensembles for regional precipitation and their extremes over South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolen, J.; Kodra, E. A.; Ganguly, A. R.

    2011-12-01

    The assertion that higher-resolution experiments or more sophisticated process models within the IPCC AR5 CMIP5 suite of global climate model ensembles improves precipitation projections over the IPCC AR4 CMIP3 suite remains a hypothesis that needs to be rigorously tested. The questions are particularly important for local to regional assessments at scales relevant for the management of critical infrastructures and key resources, particularly for the attributes of sever precipitation events, for example, the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme precipitation. Our case study is South America, where precipitation and their extremes play a central role in sustaining natural, built and human systems. To test the hypothesis that CMIP5 improves over CMIP3 in this regard, spatial and temporal measures of prediction skill are constructed and computed by comparing climate model hindcasts with the NCEP-II reanalysis data, considered here as surrogate observations, for the entire globe and for South America. In addition, gridded precipitation observations over South America based on rain gage measurements are considered. The results suggest that the utility of the next-generation of global climate models over the current generation needs to be carefully evaluated on a case-by-case basis before communicating to resource managers and policy makers.

  7. Statistical downscaling of IPCC sea surface wind and wind energy predictions for U.S. east coastal ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Zhigang; Xue, Zuo; He, Ruoying; Bao, Xianwen; Song, Jun

    2016-08-01

    A multivariate statistical downscaling method is developed to produce regional, high-resolution, coastal surface wind fields based on the IPCC global model predictions for the U.S. east coastal ocean, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), and the Caribbean Sea. The statistical relationship is built upon linear regressions between the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) spaces of a cross- calibrated, multi-platform, multi-instrument ocean surface wind velocity dataset (predictand) and the global NCEP wind reanalysis (predictor) over a 10 year period from 2000 to 2009. The statistical relationship is validated before applications and its effectiveness is confirmed by the good agreement between downscaled wind fields based on the NCEP reanalysis and in-situ surface wind measured at 16 National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoys in the U.S. east coastal ocean and the GOM during 1992-1999. The predictand-predictor relationship is applied to IPCC GFDL model output (2.0°×2.5°) of downscaled coastal wind at 0.25°×0.25° resolution. The temporal and spatial variability of future predicted wind speeds and wind energy potential over the study region are further quantified. It is shown that wind speed and power would significantly be reduced in the high CO2 climate scenario offshore of the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S., with the speed falling to one quarter of its original value.

  8. Air Pollution Radiative Forcing From Specific Emissions Sectors at 2030: Prototype for a New IPCC Bar Chart

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, N.; Shindell, D. T.; Koch, D. M.

    2007-05-01

    Reduction of short-lived air pollutants provides a way to mitigate global warming in the short-term with ancillary benefits to human health. However, the radiative forcings of short-lived air pollutants depend on the location and source type of the precursor emissions. We apply the GISS atmospheric composition-climate model to quantify near future (2030 A1B) ozone (O3) and sulfate global mean direct radiative forcing impacts from 6 emissions sectors from 7 geographic regions. At 2030 the net forcings for the emissions sectors (including O3, sulfate, black and organic carbon forcings) are (in mW/m2): transportation = +106; biomass burning = +69; domestic = +38; power = -158; industry = -124. Hence the transportation sector is the most attractive target to counter global warming via reduction of short-lived air pollutants. Substantial transportation sector O3 forcings come from all regions (5-12 mW/m2). Central and Southern Africa and South America contribute the largest biomass burning O3 forcings (11-15 mW/m2). Domestic biofuel emissions from East Asia, South Asia and Central and South Africa and power and industry emissions from East Asia also contribute substantial O3 forcings (7-15mW/m2). The global mean sulfate forcings are dominated by the power and industry sectors with largest contributions from East Asia, South Asia and North Africa and Middle East (-30 to -50 mW/m2). Linear relationships exist between global mean radiative forcing by O3 and biomass burning and domestic biofuel CO precursor emissions independent of the region of origin with sensitivity of 0.02mW/m2/TgCO. Similarly, linear relationships are available for global mean radiative forcing by sulfate and SO2 precursor emissions that depend upon region but are independent of the emissions sector with sensitivities ranging from -3 to -12mW/m2/TgS. Such emissions to forcing diagnostics will assist development of climate-motivated policy for O3 and sulfate.

  9. Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in Southern Ocean seabirds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbraud, Christophe; Rivalan, Philippe; Inchausti, Pablo; Nevoux, Marie; Rolland, Virginie; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2011-01-01

    1. Recent climate change has affected a wide range of species, but predicting population responses to projected climate change using population dynamics theory and models remains challenging, and very few attempts have been made. The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature and sea ice extent are projected to warm and shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases increase, and several top predator species are affected by fluctuations in these oceanographic variables. 2. We compared and projected the population responses of three seabird species living in sub-tropical, sub-Antarctic and Antarctic biomes to predicted climate change over the next 50 years. Using stochastic population models we combined long-term demographic datasets and projections of sea surface temperature and sea ice extent for three different IPCC emission scenarios (from most to least severe: A1B, A2, B1) from general circulation models of Earth's climate. 3. We found that climate mostly affected the probability to breed successfully, and in one case adult survival. Interestingly, frequent nonlinear relationships in demographic responses to climate were detected. Models forced by future predicted climatic change provided contrasted population responses depending on the species considered. The northernmost distributed species was predicted to be little affected by a future warming of the Southern Ocean, whereas steep declines were projected for the more southerly distributed species due to sea surface temperature warming and decrease in sea ice extent. For the most southerly distributed species, the A1B and B1 emission scenarios were respectively the most and less damaging. For the two other species, population responses were similar for all emission scenarios. 4. This is among the first attempts to study the demographic responses for several populations with contrasted environmental conditions, which illustrates that investigating the effects of climate change on core population dynamics

  10. Global outlook for wood and forests with the bioenergy demand implied by scenarios of the intergovernmental panel on climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronald Raunikar; Joseph Buongiorno; James A. Turner; Shushuai Zhu

    2010-01-01

    The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) was modified to link the forest sector to two scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and to represent the utilization of fuelwood and industrial roundwood to produce biofuels. The scenarios examined were a subset of the “story lines” prepared by the IPCC. Each scenario has projections of population and...

  11. Methods for Assessing Uncertainties in Climate Change, Impacts and Responses (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, M. R.; Swart, R.

    2009-12-01

    Assessing the scientific uncertainties or confidence levels for the many different aspects of climate change is particularly important because of the seriousness of potential impacts and the magnitude of economic and political responses that are needed to mitigate climate change effectively. This has made the treatment of uncertainty and confidence a key feature in the assessments carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Because climate change is very much a cross-disciplinary area of science, adequately dealing with uncertainties requires recognition of their wide range and different perspectives on assessing and communicating those uncertainties. The structural differences that exist across disciplines are often embedded deeply in the corresponding literature that is used as the basis for an IPCC assessment. The assessment of climate change science by the IPCC has from its outset tried to report the levels of confidence and uncertainty in the degree of understanding in both the underlying multi-disciplinary science and in projections for future climate. The growing recognition of the seriousness of this led to the formation of a detailed approach for consistent treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (TAR) [Moss and Schneider, 2000]. However, in completing the TAR there remained some systematic differences between the disciplines raising concerns about the level of consistency. So further consideration of a systematic approach to uncertainties was undertaken for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The basis for the approach used in the AR4 was developed at an expert meeting of scientists representing many different disciplines. This led to the introduction of a broader way of addressing uncertainties in the AR4 [Manning et al., 2004] which was further refined by lengthy discussions among many IPCC Lead Authors, for over a year, resulting in a short summary of a standard approach to be followed for that

  12. Modeling regional coral reef responses to global warming and changes in ocean chemistry: Caribbean case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buddemeier, R.W.; Lane, D.R.; Martinich, J.A.

    2011-01-01

    Climatic change threatens the future of coral reefs in the Caribbean and the important ecosystem services they provide. We used a simulation model [Combo ("COral Mortality and Bleaching Output")] to estimate future coral cover in the part of the eastern Caribbean impacted by a massive coral bleaching event in 2005. Combo calculates impacts of future climate change on coral reefs by combining impacts from long-term changes in average sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean acidification with impacts from episodic high temperature mortality (bleaching) events. We used mortality and heat dose data from the 2005 bleaching event to select historic temperature datasets, to use as a baseline for running Combo under different future climate scenarios and sets of assumptions. Results suggest a bleak future for coral reefs in the eastern Caribbean. For three different emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; B1, A1B, and A1FI), coral cover on most Caribbean reefs is projected to drop below 5% by the year 2035, if future mortality rates are equivalent to some of those observed in the 2005 event (50%). For a scenario where corals gain an additional 1-1. 5??C of heat tolerance through a shift in the algae that live in the coral tissue, coral cover above 5% is prolonged until 2065. Additional impacts such as storms or anthropogenic damage could result in declines in coral cover even faster than those projected here. These results suggest the need to identify and preserve the locations that are likely to have a higher resiliency to bleaching to save as many remnant populations of corals as possible in the face of projected wide-spread coral loss. ?? 2011 The Author(s).

  13. The origin of climate changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delecluse, P

    2008-08-01

    Investigation on climate change is coordinated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has the delicate task of collecting recent knowledge on climate change and the related impacts of the observed changes, and then developing a consensus statement from these findings. The IPCC's last review, published at the end of 2007, summarised major findings on the present climate situation. The observations show a clear increase in the temperature of the Earth's surface and the oceans, a reduction in the land snow cover, and melting of the sea ice and glaciers. Numerical modelling combined with statistical analysis has shown that this warming trend is very likely the signature of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases linked with human activities. Given the continuing social and economic development around the world, the IPCC emission scenarios forecast an increasing greenhouse effect, at least until 2050 according to the most optimistic models. The model ensemble predicts a rising temperature that will reach dangerous levels for the biosphere and ecosystems within this century. Hydrological systems and the potential significant impacts of these systems on the environment are also discussed. Facing this challenging future, societies must take measures to reduce emissions and work on adapting to an inexorably changing environment. Present knowledge is sufficientto start taking action, but a stronger foundation is needed to ensure that pertinent long-term choices are made that will meet the demands of an interactive and rapidly evolving world.

  14. Framing Vulnerability and Adaptation to Environmental Change in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    AJB SERVER

    The launching of this African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology coincides with the highly publicized release of international assessment of climate change. The latest, on 6th April, 2007 was the 21-page summary for policy makers from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) working group ...

  15. Policy options to respond to rapid climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Swart, R.J.; Marinova, N.A.; Bakker, S.; Tilburg, van X.

    2009-01-01

    Ongoing research on climate change indicates that we cannot rule out the possibility of extreme climatic changes, beyond current IPCC scenarios. The thinking about policy responses to address these risks is still in its infancy. This study explores the possibilities for responding to extreme

  16. Indications of the changing nature of rainfall in Ethiopia: The ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    Climate Change (IPCC) the working definition of climate change is put as a statistically ... rainfall in the western part of the region than the eastern. From their trend analysis of .... be said then that the behaviour of the 17 stations' increases and ...

  17. Climate Change and Maize Production: Empirical Evidence from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael Madukwe

    been argued for as major reasons for global climate change. IPCC (2007) confirmed global fluctuations in ... examine adaptation strategies for climate change; and analyse fishers' livelihoods and adaptive capacity. ... (vii) Average annual income from fishing: Respondents were asked to state their income from fishing. 2.

  18. Effects of a Changing Climate on Seasonal Variation in Natural Recharge of Unconfined Coastal Aquifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antonellini, Marco; Nella Mollema, Pauline

    2013-04-01

    Irregular rainfall patterns throughout the year result in the discontinuous natural recharge of coastal aquifers, which has an effect on the size of freshwater lenses present in sandy deposits. The thickness of the freshwater lenses is important in the context of farmland salinization and coastal ecosystems survival. This study presents numerical models that simulate continuous and discontinuous recharge in sandy coastal aquifers and the thickness of resulting fresh water lenses under current and future climate scenarios. Temperature data for the period 1960-1990 from LOCCLIM FAO and from the IPCC SRES A1b scenario for 2070-2100, have been used to calculate the potential evapotranspiration. Potential recharge was defined as the difference between the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in twelve locations around the world: Ameland (The Netherlands), Auckland and Wellington (New Zealand), Hong Kong, Ravenna (Italy), Mekong (Vietnam), Mumbai (India), New Jersey (USA), Nile Delta (Egypt), Kobe and Tokyo (Japan), and Singapore. These locations have shallow coastal aquifers along low lying coasts and comparable aquifer structure, which is the result of similar sediment supply and deposition in the Holocene as well as by the sea level changes from the last ice age to the present time. Particular attention has been paid to temporal variations of natural recharge that can vary from continuous recharge throughout the year to discontinuous recharge. The most dramatic reduction in the magnitude of potential annual recharge by the end of this century will occur at lower latitudes (Mumbai, Singapore, Hong Kong and Mekong). The most pronounced change in length of the dry period occurs for Kobe (Japan) and Singapore even though the total annual amount of recharge remains practically the same. The Influence of variable recharge on the size of freshwater lenses surrounded by saline water is simulated with the SEAWAT model. Models where the recharge is applied

  19. Mitochondrial genomic analysis of late onset Alzheimer's disease reveals protective haplogroups H6A1A/H6A1B: the Cache County Study on Memory in Aging.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Perry G Ridge

    Full Text Available Alzheimer's disease (AD is the most common cause of dementia and AD risk clusters within families. Part of the familial aggregation of AD is accounted for by excess maternal vs. paternal inheritance, a pattern consistent with mitochondrial inheritance. The role of specific mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA variants and haplogroups in AD risk is uncertain.We determined the complete mitochondrial genome sequence of 1007 participants in the Cache County Study on Memory in Aging, a population-based prospective cohort study of dementia in northern Utah. AD diagnoses were made with a multi-stage protocol that included clinical examination and review by a panel of clinical experts. We used TreeScanning, a statistically robust approach based on haplotype networks, to analyze the mtDNA sequence data. Participants with major mitochondrial haplotypes H6A1A and H6A1B showed a reduced risk of AD (p=0.017, corrected for multiple comparisons. The protective haplotypes were defined by three variants: m.3915G>A, m.4727A>G, and m.9380G>A. These three variants characterize two different major haplogroups. Together m.4727A>G and m.9380G>A define H6A1, and it has been suggested m.3915G>A defines H6A. Additional variants differentiate H6A1A and H6A1B; however, none of these variants had a significant relationship with AD case-control status.Our findings provide evidence of a reduced risk of AD for individuals with mtDNA haplotypes H6A1A and H6A1B. These findings are the results of the largest study to date with complete mtDNA genome sequence data, yet the functional significance of the associated haplotypes remains unknown and replication in others studies is necessary.

  20. PET-CT imaging with [18F]-gefitinib to measure Abcb1a/1b (P-gp) and Abcg2 (Bcrp1) mediated drug–drug interactions at the murine blood–brain barrier

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vlaming, Maria L.H.; Läppchen, Tilman; Jansen, Harm T.; Kivits, Suzanne; Driel, Andy van; Steeg, Evita van de; Hoorn, José W. van der; Sio, Charles F.; Steinbach, Oliver C.; DeGroot, Jeroen

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: The efflux transporters P-glycoprotein (P-gp, ABCB1) and breast cancer resistance protein (BCRP, ABCG2) are expressed at the blood–brain barrier (BBB), and can limit the access of a wide range of drugs to the brain. In this study we developed a PET-CT imaging method for non-invasive, quantitative analysis of the effect of ABCB1 and ABCG2 on brain penetration of the anti-cancer drug gefitinib, and demonstrated the applicability of this method for identification and quantification of potential modulators of ABCB1 and ABCB2 using the dual inhibitor elacridar. Methods: In vitro cellular accumulation studies with [ 14 C]-gefitinib were conducted in LLC-PK1, MDCKII, and the corresponding ABCB1/Abcb1a and ABCG2/Abcg2 overexpressing cell lines. Subsequently, in vivo brain penetration of [ 18 F]-gefitinib was quantified by PET-CT imaging studies in wild-type, Abcg2 −/− , Abcb1a/1b −/− , and Abcb1a/1b;Abcg2 −/− mice. Results: In vitro studies showed that [ 14 C]-gefitinib is a substrate of the human ABCB1 and ABCG2 transporters. After i.v. administration of [ 18 F]-gefitinib (1 mg/kg), PET-CT imaging showed 2.3-fold increased brain levels of [ 18 F]-gefitinib in Abcb1a/1b;Abcg2 −/− mice, compared to wild-type. Levels in single knockout animals were not different from wild-type, showing that Abcb1a/1b and Abcg2 together limit access of [ 18 F]-gefitinib to the brain. Furthermore, enhanced brain accumulation of [ 18 F]-gefitinib after administration of the ABCB1 and ABCG2 inhibitor elacridar (10 mg/kg) could be quantified with PET-CT imaging. Conclusions: PET-CT imaging with [ 18 F]-gefitinib is a powerful tool to non-invasively assess potential ABCB1- and ABCG2-mediated drug–drug interactions (DDIs) in vivo. Advances in knowledge and implications for patient care: This minimally-invasive, [ 18 F]-based PET-CT imaging method shows the interplay of ABCB1 and ABCG2 at the BBB in vivo. The method may be applied in the future to assess ABCB1 and

  1. Beyond naturalness: Adapting wilderness stewardship to an era of rapid global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Cole

    2012-01-01

    Climate change and its effects are writ large across wilderness landscapes. They always have been and always will be (see Figure 1). But contemporary change is different. For the first time, the pace and direction of climate change appear to be driven significantly by human activities (IPCC 2007), and this change is playing out across landscapes already affected by...

  2. Managing fish and wildlife habitat in the face of climate change: USDA Forest Service perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory D. Hayward; Curtis H. Flather; Erin Uloth; Hugh D. Safford; David A. Cleaves

    2009-01-01

    The spatial and temporal scope of environmental change anticipated during the next century as a result of climate change presents unprecedented challenges for fish and wildlife management. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC 2007) suggested impacts from climate change on natural systems will be more grave than earlier...

  3. Bioclimatic techniques to quantify mitigation measures for climate change with specific reference to Pretoria

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Conradie, Dirk CU

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available , use the IPCC report of 2007 (Meehl et al., 2007). The averages of all 18 models have been included in the software. Three different scenarios B1 (low), A1B (mid) and A2 (high) are available in Meteonorm, but only the A2 instance has been used... to control this oblique radiation and light as well. The design is a function of the latitude, window size and fin depth/ frequency. Living solar protection such as deciduous trees and trellises with deciduous vines are very good shading devices...

  4. A new tool for exploring climate change induced range shifts of conifer species in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kou, Xiaojun; Li, Qin; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Zhao, Yiheng; Liu, Shirong

    2014-01-01

    It is inevitable that tree species will undergo considerable range shifts in response to anthropogenic induced climate change, even in the near future. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are valuable tools in exploring general temporal trends and spatial patterns of potential range shifts. Understanding projections to future climate for tree species will facilitate policy making in forestry. Comparative studies for a large number of tree species require the availability of suitable and standardized indices. A crucial limitation when deriving such indices is the threshold problem in defining ranges, which has made interspecies comparison problematic until now. Here we propose a set of threshold-free indices, which measure range explosion (I), overlapping (O), and range center movement in three dimensions (Dx, Dy, Dz), based on fuzzy set theory (Fuzzy Set based Potential Range Shift Index, F-PRS Index). A graphical tool (PRS_Chart) was developed to visualize these indices. This technique was then applied to 46 Pinaceae species that are widely distributed and partly common in China. The spatial patterns of the modeling results were then statistically tested for significance. Results showed that range overlap was generally low; no trends in range size changes and longitudinal movements could be found, but northward and poleward movement trends were highly significant. Although range shifts seemed to exhibit huge interspecies variation, they were very consistent for certain climate change scenarios. Comparing the IPCC scenarios, we found that scenario A1B would lead to a larger extent of range shifts (less overlapping and more latitudinal movement) than the A2 and the B1 scenarios. It is expected that the newly developed standardized indices and the respective graphical tool will facilitate studies on PRS's for other tree species groups that are important in forestry as well, and thus support climate adaptive forest management.

  5. A new tool for exploring climate change induced range shifts of conifer species in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaojun Kou

    Full Text Available It is inevitable that tree species will undergo considerable range shifts in response to anthropogenic induced climate change, even in the near future. Species Distribution Models (SDMs are valuable tools in exploring general temporal trends and spatial patterns of potential range shifts. Understanding projections to future climate for tree species will facilitate policy making in forestry. Comparative studies for a large number of tree species require the availability of suitable and standardized indices. A crucial limitation when deriving such indices is the threshold problem in defining ranges, which has made interspecies comparison problematic until now. Here we propose a set of threshold-free indices, which measure range explosion (I, overlapping (O, and range center movement in three dimensions (Dx, Dy, Dz, based on fuzzy set theory (Fuzzy Set based Potential Range Shift Index, F-PRS Index. A graphical tool (PRS_Chart was developed to visualize these indices. This technique was then applied to 46 Pinaceae species that are widely distributed and partly common in China. The spatial patterns of the modeling results were then statistically tested for significance. Results showed that range overlap was generally low; no trends in range size changes and longitudinal movements could be found, but northward and poleward movement trends were highly significant. Although range shifts seemed to exhibit huge interspecies variation, they were very consistent for certain climate change scenarios. Comparing the IPCC scenarios, we found that scenario A1B would lead to a larger extent of range shifts (less overlapping and more latitudinal movement than the A2 and the B1 scenarios. It is expected that the newly developed standardized indices and the respective graphical tool will facilitate studies on PRS's for other tree species groups that are important in forestry as well, and thus support climate adaptive forest management.

  6. Climate Change in China : Exploring Informants' Perceptions of Climate Change through a Qualitative Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Lipin, Tan

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is not only a natural phenomenon, but also a global social issue. Many studies try to explore the mechanisms behind climate change and the consequences of climate change, and provide information for developing the measures to mitigate or adapt to it. For example, the IPCC reviews and assesses climate-change-related scientific information produced worldwide, thus aiming to support decision-making from a scientific perspective. However, though various international and regional c...

  7. Global climate change: an unequivocal reality; Cambio climatico global: una realidad inequivoca

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raynal-Villasenor, J.A. [Universidad de las Americas, Puebla, Puebla (Mexico)]. E-mail: josea.raynal@udlap.mx

    2011-10-15

    During several years, a long discussion has taken place over the reality of global climate change phenomenon and, if there is one, what could be its cause. Once the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC, 2007) - IPCC is part the United Nations Organization (UN) - was published, it was stated that there is a developing global climatic change and that the cause is unequivocally related with the human activity in the planet Earth. In this paper, relevant information is given about the development of global climatic change issues and some actions are mentioned that each human being of this planet can implement to mitigate it, since it has been accepted that it's impossible to stop it. [Spanish] Durante varios anos se ha discutido si existe un cambio climatico global y, si lo hay, cual es su causa. Una vez publicado el 4o. Reporte de Valoracion del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climatico (IPCC, 2007) - el IPCC es parte de la Organizacion de las Naciones Unidas (ONU) - se preciso que hay un cambio climatico global en desarrollo y la causa inequivoca que lo esta produciendo es la actividad humana en el planeta Tierra, tambien se hablo en el IPCC de las causas naturales por las cuales el planeta se esta calentando. En el presente articulo, se da informacion relevante al cambio climatico global en desarrollo y se mencionan algunas acciones que cada ser humano de este planeta puede implementar para mitigarlo, ya que es imposible detenerlo.

  8. Evaluating IPCC AR4 cool-season precipitation simulations and projections for impacts assessment over North America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McAfee, Stephanie A. [The University of Arizona, Department of Geosciences, Tucson, AZ (United States); The Wilderness Society, Anchorage, AK (United States); Russell, Joellen L.; Goodman, Paul J. [The University of Arizona, Department of Geosciences, Tucson, AZ (United States)

    2011-12-15

    General circulation models (GCMs) have demonstrated success in simulating global climate, and they are critical tools for producing regional climate projections consistent with global changes in radiative forcing. GCM output is currently being used in a variety of ways for regional impacts projection. However, more work is required to assess model bias and evaluate whether assumptions about the independence of model projections and error are valid. This is particularly important where models do not display offsetting errors. Comparing simulated 300-hPa zonal winds and precipitation for the late 20th century with reanalysis and gridded precipitation data shows statistically significant and physically plausible associations between positive precipitation biases across all models and a marked increase in zonal wind speed around 30 N, as well as distortions in rain shadow patterns. Over the western United States, GCMs project drier conditions to the south and increasing precipitation to the north. There is a high degree of agreement between models, and many studies have made strong statements about implications for water resources and about ecosystem change on that basis. However, since one of the mechanisms driving changes in winter precipitation patterns appears to be associated with a source of error in simulating mean precipitation in the present, it suggests that greater caution should be used in interpreting impacts related to precipitation projections in this region and that standard assumptions underlying bias correction methods should be scrutinized. (orig.)

  9. Mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions from waste: conclusions and strategies from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bogner, J.P.; Pipatti, R.; Hashimoto, S.

    2008-01-01

    -term - at the present time, there are > 130 Mt waste year- 1 incinerated at more than 600 plants. Current uncertainties with respect to emissions and mitigation potentials could be reduced by more consistent national definitions, coordinated international data collection, standardized data analysis, field validation...

  10. The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies — A Danish water management example

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Refsgaard, J.C.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Drews, Martin

    2013-01-01

    We propose a generic framework to characterize climate change adaptation uncertainty according to three dimensions: level, source and nature. Our framework is different, and in this respect more comprehensive, than the present UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approach and could...... be used to address concerns that the IPCC approach is oversimplified. We have studied the role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation planning using examples from four Danish water related sectors. The dominating sources of uncertainty differ greatly among issues; most uncertainties on impacts...

  11. Effects of climate change and wildfire on soil loss in the Southern Rockies Ecoregion

    Science.gov (United States)

    S. E. Litschert; D. M. Theobald; T. C. Brown

    2014-01-01

    Forests in the Southern Rockies Ecoregion surround the headwaters of several major rivers in the western and central US. Future climatic changes will increase the incidence of wildfire in those forests, and will likely lead to changes in downstream water quality, including sediment loads.We estimated soil loss under the historic climate and two IPCC climate change...

  12. The effect of climate change and natural variability on wind loading values for buildings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steenbergen, R.D.J.M.; Koster, T.; Geurts, C.P.W.

    2012-01-01

    Since 2006, a number of countries developed reports on climate change following the IPCC 4th assessment reports. For the Netherlands, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) presented four new climate scenarios. Typically, climate change is described in terms of average changes, but

  13. The effect of climate change and natural variability on wind loading values

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steenbergen, R.D.J.M.; Koster, T.; Geurts, C.P.W.

    2012-01-01

    Since 2006, a number of countries developed reports on climate change following the IPCC 4th assessment reports. For the Netherlands, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) presented four new climate scenarios. Typically, climate change is described in terms of average changes, but

  14. Primer on climate change and sustainable development: facts, policy analysis, and applications

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Munasinghe, Mohan; Swart, Rob

    2005-01-01

    ... between climate change and sustainable development. Building on the main findings of the last series of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, in which both authors were involved, the book summarizes the latest research linking the two. Our current knowledge of the basic science of climate change is described, be...

  15. Field assessment of semi-aerobic condition and the methane correction factor for the semi-aerobic landfills provided by IPCC guidelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Sangjae; Nam, Anwoo; Yi, Seung-Muk; Kim, Jae Young

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • CH 4 /CO 2 and CH 4 + CO 2 % are proposed as indices to evaluate semi-aerobic landfills. • A landfill which CH 4 /CO 2 > 1.0 is difficult to be categorized as semi-aerobic landfill. • Field conditions should be carefully investigated to determine landfill types. • The MCF default value for semi-aerobic landfills underestimates the methane emissions. - Abstract: According to IPCC guidelines, a semi-aerobic landfill site produces one-half of the amount of CH 4 produced by an equally-sized anaerobic landfill site. Therefore categorizing the landfill type is important on greenhouse gas inventories. In order to assess semi-aerobic condition in the sites and the MCF value for semi-aerobic landfill, landfill gas has been measured from vent pipes in five semi-aerobically designed landfills in South Korea. All of the five sites satisfied requirements of semi-aerobic landfills in 2006 IPCC guidelines. However, the ends of leachate collection pipes which are main entrance of air in the semi-aerobic landfill were closed in all five sites. The CH 4 /CO 2 ratio in landfill gas, indicator of aerobic and anaerobic decomposition, ranged from 1.08 to 1.46 which is higher than the values (0.3–1.0) reported for semi-aerobic landfill sites and is rather close to those (1.0–2.0) for anaerobic landfill sites. The low CH 4 + CO 2 % in landfill gas implied air intrusion into the landfill. However, there was no evidence that air intrusion has caused by semi-aerobic design and operation. Therefore, the landfills investigated in this study are difficult to be classified as semi-aerobic landfills. Also MCF of 0.5 may significantly underestimate methane emissions compared to other researches. According to the carbon mass balance analyses, the higher MCF needs to be proposed for semi-aerobic landfills. Consequently, methane emission estimate should be based on field evaluation for the semi-aerobically designed landfills

  16. Field assessment of semi-aerobic condition and the methane correction factor for the semi-aerobic landfills provided by IPCC guidelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeong, Sangjae [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of); Nam, Anwoo [Korea Environment Corporation, 42 Hwangyeong-ro, Seo-gu, Incheon 404-170 (Korea, Republic of); Yi, Seung-Muk [Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jae Young, E-mail: jaeykim@snu.ac.kr [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-02-15

    Highlights: • CH{sub 4}/CO{sub 2} and CH{sub 4} + CO{sub 2}% are proposed as indices to evaluate semi-aerobic landfills. • A landfill which CH{sub 4}/CO{sub 2} > 1.0 is difficult to be categorized as semi-aerobic landfill. • Field conditions should be carefully investigated to determine landfill types. • The MCF default value for semi-aerobic landfills underestimates the methane emissions. - Abstract: According to IPCC guidelines, a semi-aerobic landfill site produces one-half of the amount of CH{sub 4} produced by an equally-sized anaerobic landfill site. Therefore categorizing the landfill type is important on greenhouse gas inventories. In order to assess semi-aerobic condition in the sites and the MCF value for semi-aerobic landfill, landfill gas has been measured from vent pipes in five semi-aerobically designed landfills in South Korea. All of the five sites satisfied requirements of semi-aerobic landfills in 2006 IPCC guidelines. However, the ends of leachate collection pipes which are main entrance of air in the semi-aerobic landfill were closed in all five sites. The CH{sub 4}/CO{sub 2} ratio in landfill gas, indicator of aerobic and anaerobic decomposition, ranged from 1.08 to 1.46 which is higher than the values (0.3–1.0) reported for semi-aerobic landfill sites and is rather close to those (1.0–2.0) for anaerobic landfill sites. The low CH{sub 4} + CO{sub 2}% in landfill gas implied air intrusion into the landfill. However, there was no evidence that air intrusion has caused by semi-aerobic design and operation. Therefore, the landfills investigated in this study are difficult to be classified as semi-aerobic landfills. Also MCF of 0.5 may significantly underestimate methane emissions compared to other researches. According to the carbon mass balance analyses, the higher MCF needs to be proposed for semi-aerobic landfills. Consequently, methane emission estimate should be based on field evaluation for the semi-aerobically designed landfills.

  17. Climate change in China and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Luo Y.; Qin D.; Huang J.

    2010-01-01

    Since the first assessment report (FAR) of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1990, the international scientific community has made substantial progresses in climate change sciences. Changes in components of climate system, including the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, indicate that global warming is unequivocal. Instrumental records demonstrate that the global mean temperature has a significant increasing trend during the 20th century and in the latest 50 years the warmi...

  18. The 5-HT1A/1B-receptor agonist eltoprazine increases both catecholamine release in the prefrontal cortex and dopamine release in the nucleus accumbens and decreases motivation for reward and "waiting" impulsivity, but increases "stopping" impulsivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korte, S Mechiel; Prins, Jolanda; Van den Bergh, Filip S; Oosting, Ronald S; Dupree, Rudy; Korte-Bouws, Gerdien A H; Westphal, Koen G C; Olivier, Berend; Denys, Damiaan A; Garland, Alexis; Güntürkün, Onur

    2017-01-05

    The 5-HT 1A/1B -receptor agonist eltoprazine has a behavioral drug signature that resembles that of a variety of psychostimulant drugs, despite the differences in receptor binding profile. These psychostimulants are effective in treating impulsivity disorders, most likely because they increase norepinephrine (NE) and dopamine (DA) levels in the prefrontal cortex. Both amphetamine and methylphenidate, however, also increase dopamine levels in the nucleus accumbens (NAc), which has a significant role in motivation, pleasure, and reward. How eltoprazine affects monoamine release in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), and the NAc is unknown. It is also unknown whether eltoprazine affects different forms of impulsivity and brain reward mechanisms. Therefore, in the present study, we investigate the effects of eltoprazine in rats in the following sequence: 1) the activity of the monoaminergic systems using in vivo microdialysis, 2) motivation for reward measured using the intracranial self-stimulation (ICSS) procedure, and finally, 3) "waiting" impulsivity in the delay-aversion task, and the "stopping" impulsivity in the stop-signal task. The microdialysis studies clearly showed that eltoprazine increased DA and NE release in both the mPFC and OFC, but only increased DA concentration in the NAc. In contrast, eltoprazine decreased 5-HT release in the mPFC and NAc (undetectable in the OFC). Remarkably, eltoprazine decreased impulsive choice, but increased impulsive action. Furthermore, brain stimulation was less rewarding following eltoprazine treatment. These results further support the long-standing hypothesis that "waiting" and "stopping" impulsivity are regulated by distinct neural circuits, because 5-HT 1A/1B -receptor activation decreases impulsive choice, but increases impulsive action. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Adapting to climate change in United States national forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    G. M. Blate; L. A. Joyce; J. S. Littell; S. G. McNulty; C. I. Millar; S. C. Moser; R. P. Neilson; K. O’Halloran; D. L. Peterson

    2009-01-01

    Climate change is already affecting forests and other ecosystems, and additional, potentially more severe impacts are expected (IPCC, 2007; CCSP, 2008a, 2008b). As a result, forest managers are seeking practical guidance on how to adapt their current practices and, if necessary, their goals. Adaptations of forest ecosystems, which in this context refer to adjustments...

  20. Possible impacts of climate change on the water balance with special emphasis on runoff and hydropower potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frey, S.

    2015-01-01

    Hydropower is the most important source of renewable energy as 20 % of the world’s electricity is provided by hydropower stations. Climate change has impacts on the hydrological cycle and therefore on the hydroelectric power potential. This thesis presents two approaches to study possible impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle. One focusses on the evolution of climate and its hydrological impact in Austria, the other concentrates on large regions in the Alps. In both studies the regional climate models ALADIN, REMO and RegCM3 were used with the IPCC emission scenario A1B. Mainly due to warming, snowmelt will become more important in winter and early spring while the total amount of snow being stored in the catchment in the cold season will become lower. Consequently, discharge rates in winter in general will be higher. In summer enhanced evapotranspiration combined with less snow and ice melt will lead to lower discharge rates. Annual sums of runoff in most of the basin will be decreasing. Since the modelled catchments cover high mountainous regions snow processes play a key role. The use of a temperature based snowmelt model may lead to unrealistic high accumulations of snow in the peak regions. The presented study deals with that problem in two ways. (i) A simple snow redistribution model has been developed for the use in the raster based hydrological model COSERO. This model has been tested in the catchment of Ötztaler Ache, Austria. This model handles accumulations more realistic but also predicts discharge more precisely leading to a Kling-Gupta-Efficiency of 0.93 instead of 0.9. (ii) Another approach for preventing snow accumulations in high altitudes has been developed for the semi-distributed model used for climate change impact modelling. Similar behaviour regarding snow accumulations and the critical elevation for this to occur has been found in the Salzach River basin, Austria. (author) [de

  1. Climatic changes lead to declining winter chill for fruit and nut trees in California during 1950-2099.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luedeling, Eike; Zhang, Minghua; Girvetz, Evan H

    2009-07-16

    Winter chill is one of the defining characteristics of a location's suitability for the production of many tree crops. We mapped and investigated observed historic and projected future changes in winter chill in California, quantified with two different chilling models (Chilling Hours, Dynamic Model). Based on hourly and daily temperature records, winter chill was modeled for two past temperature scenarios (1950 and 2000), and 18 future scenarios (average conditions during 2041-2060 and 2080-2099 under each of the B1, A1B and A2 IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, for the CSIRO-MK3, HadCM3 and MIROC climate models). For each scenario, 100 replications of the yearly temperature record were produced, using a stochastic weather generator. We then introduced and mapped a novel climatic statistic, "safe winter chill", the 10% quantile of the resulting chilling distributions. This metric can be interpreted as the amount of chilling that growers can safely expect under each scenario. Winter chill declined substantially for all emissions scenarios, with the area of safe winter chill for many tree species or cultivars decreasing 50-75% by mid-21st century, and 90-100% by late century. Both chilling models consistently projected climatic conditions by the middle to end of the 21st century that will no longer support some of the main tree crops currently grown in California, with the Chilling Hours Model projecting greater changes than the Dynamic Model. The tree crop industry in California will likely need to develop agricultural adaptation measures (e.g. low-chill varieties and dormancy-breaking chemicals) to cope with these projected changes. For some crops, production might no longer be possible.

  2. Agricultural drought in a future climate: results from 15 global climate models participating in the IPCC 4th assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guiling

    2005-12-01

    This study examines the impact of greenhouse gas warming on soil moisture based on predictions of 15 global climate models by comparing the after-stabilization climate in the SRESA1b experiment with the pre-industrial control climate. The models are consistent in predicting summer dryness and winter wetness in only part of the northern middle and high latitudes. Slightly over half of the models predict year-round wetness in central Eurasia and/or year-round dryness in Siberia and mid-latitude Northeast Asia. One explanation is offered that relates such lack of seasonality to the carryover effect of soil moisture storage from season to season. In the tropics and subtropics, a decrease of soil moisture is the dominant response. The models are especially consistent in predicting drier soil over the southwest North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, Australia, and the South Africa in all seasons, and over much of the Amazon and West Africa in the June July August (JJA) season and the Asian monsoon region in the December January February (DJF) season. Since the only major areas of future wetness predicted with a high level of model consistency are part of the northern middle and high latitudes during the non-growing season, it is suggested that greenhouse gas warming will cause a worldwide agricultural drought. Over regions where there is considerable consistency among the analyzed models in predicting the sign of soil moisture changes, there is a wide range of magnitudes of the soil moisture response, indicating a high degree of model dependency in terrestrial hydrological sensitivity. A major part of the inter-model differences in the sensitivity of soil moisture response are attributable to differences in land surface parameterization.

  3. The understanding of world climate change; Les connaissances sur le changement climatique mondial

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petit, M.

    2008-07-01

    After having recalled that the problem of global warming in relationship with human activities has been studied since the end of the nineteenth century and since then by different scientific programs, the author describes how the IPCC's or Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's report is produced. He briefly comments how Earth's temperature is determined and the various natural parameters which influence the climate on Earth. He recalls how the IPCC showed the actual influence of human activities, and which changes have actually been observed

  4. The changing world of climate change: Oregon leads the states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carver, P.H.; Sadler, S.; Kosloff, L.H.; Trexler, M.C.

    1997-01-01

    Following on the heels of recent national and international developments in climate change policy, Oregon's open-quote best-of-batch close-quote proceeding has validated the use of CO 2 offsets as a cost-effective means of advancing climate change mitigation goals. The proceeding was a first in several respects and represents a record commitment of funds to CO 2 mitigation by a private entity. In December 1995, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), issued its Second Assessment Report. The IPCC's conclusion that open-quotes[t]he balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climateclose quotes fundamentally changed the tenor of the policy debate regarding potential threats associated with global climate change. At the Climate Change Convention's Conference of the Parties (COP) in Geneva in July 1996, most countries, including the United States, advocated adopting the IPCC report as the basis for swift policy movement toward binding international emissions targets. The next COP, in December 1997, is scheduled to be the venue for the signing of a treaty protocol incorporating such targets. Binding targets would have major consequences for power plant operators in the US and around the world. Recent developments in the state of Oregon show the kinds of measures that may become commonplace at the state level in addressing climate change mitigation. First, Oregon recently completed the first administrative proceeding in the US aimed at offsetting the greenhouse gas emissions of a new power plant. Second, a legislatively mandated energy facility siting task force recently recommended that Oregon adopt a carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) standard for new power plant construction and drop use of the open-quotes need for powerclose quotes standard. This article reviews these two policy milestones and their implications for climate change mitigation in the United States

  5. The greening of the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamsal, Pramod; Kumar, Lalit; Shabani, Farzin; Atreya, Kishor

    2017-12-01

    The possible disruption of climate change (CC) on the ecological, economic and social segments of human interest has made this phenomenon a major issue over the last couple of decades. Mountains are fragile ecosystems, projected to endure a higher impact from the increased warming. This study presents modelled CC projections with respect to the suitability for the growth of nine near-treeline plant species of the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau through niche modelling technique using CLIMEX and estimates their potential future distribution and the extent of greening in the region. Two global climate models, CSIRO-MK 3.0 (CS) and MIROCH-H (MR) were used under IPCC A1B and A2 emission scenarios for the year 2050 and 2100. The results indicate that climatic suitability of the nine species expands towards higher elevations into areas that are currently unsuitable while currently suitable areas in many regions become climatically unsuitable in the future. The total climatically suitable area for the nine species at current time is around 1.09 million km2, with an additional 0.68 and 0.35 million km2 becoming suitable by 2050 and 2100 respectively. High elevation belts, especially those lying above 3500 m, will see more climatically suitable areas for the nine species in the future. Cold stress is the main factor limiting current distribution and its decrease will affect the overall expansion of climatic suitability in the region. Impacts on nature conservation and water and food security could be expected from such shift of climatic suitability in the region. The species includes (i) Abies spectabilis, (ii) Acer campbellii, (iii) Betula utilis, (iv) Juniperus indica, (v) Quercus semecarpifolia, (vi) Tsuga dumosa, (vii) Rhododendron campanulatum, (viii) Ephedra gerardiana, and (ix) Cassiope fastigiata. The species list from top to bottom are (i) Abies spectabilis, (ii) Acer campbellii, (iii) Betula utilis, (iv) Juniperus indica, (v) Quercus semecarpifolia, (vi) Tsuga

  6. Modelling soil borne fungal pathogens of arable crops under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manici, L M; Bregaglio, S; Fumagalli, D; Donatelli, M

    2014-12-01

    Soil-borne fungal plant pathogens, agents of crown and root rot, are seldom considered in studies on climate change and agriculture due both to the complexity of the soil system and to the incomplete knowledge of their response to environmental drivers. A controlled chamber set of experiments was carried out to quantify the response of six soil-borne fungi to temperature, and a species-generic model to simulate their response was developed. The model was linked to a soil temperature model inclusive of components able to simulate soil water content also as resulting from crop water uptake. Pathogen relative growth was simulated over Europe using the IPCC A1B emission scenario derived from the Hadley-CM3 global climate model. Climate scenarios of soil temperature in 2020 and 2030 were compared to the baseline centred in the year 2000. The general trend of the response of soil-borne pathogens shows increasing growth in the coldest areas of Europe; however, a larger rate of increase is shown from 2020 to 2030 compared to that of 2000 to 2020. Projections of pathogens of winter cereals indicate a marked increase of growth rate in the soils of northern European and Baltic states. Fungal pathogens of spring sowing crops show unchanged conditions for their growth in soils of the Mediterranean countries, whereas an increase of suitable conditions was estimated for the areals of central Europe which represent the coldest limit areas where the host crops are currently grown. Differences across fungal species are shown, indicating that crop-specific analyses should be ran.

  7. Climate change and marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Anthony J.; Brown, Christopher J.; Brander, Keith

    2012-01-01

    A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change...... ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC......) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change...

  8. Climate change research - Danish contributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joergensen, A.M.K.; Fenger, J.; Halsnaes, K.

    2001-01-01

    The book describes a series of Danish scientific and technical studies. They broadly reflect the fields and disciplines embraced by assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but with an emphasis on natural sciences (i.e. climate investigations and impact studies). After the general introduction, that presents the issue and gives a summary of the content of the book, the chapters are organised in four parts: 1. The Climate System and Climate Variations. 2. Climate Change Scenarios. 3. Impacts of Climate Change. 4. Policy Aspects. Each chapter is indexed separately. (LN)

  9. Modelling Impacts of Climate Change: Case Studies using the New Generation of Erosion Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change is expected to impact upon a number of soil erosion drivers and processes, which should be taken into account when designing a modelling strategy. The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) (Parry et al., 2007; Solomon et al., 2007) reviews a...

  10. Change of Impervious Surface Area Between 2001 and 2006 in the Conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Land cover and land use change have long been recognized as an important driver of past and present ecosystem change, especially when considering terrestrial biodiversity loss in human-dominated regions (IPCC, 2007). Urban land cover is an important component of regional and glob...

  11. Climate change impacts on yields and soil carbon in dryland agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dryland agroecosystems could be a sizable sink for atmospheric carbon (C) due to their spatial extent and level of degradation, providing climate change mitigation. We examined productivity and soil C dynamics under two IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5; RCP 8.5), utilizing long-term experiment...

  12. Multi-agent agro-economic simulation of irrigation water demand with climate services for climate change adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Balbi

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Farmers’ irrigation practices play a crucial role in the sustainability of crop production and water consumption, and in the way they deal with the current and future effects of climate change. In this study, a system dynamic multi-agent model adopting the soil water balance provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56 was developed to explore how farmers’ decision making may affect future water needs and use with a focus on the role of climate services, i.e. forecasts and insurance. A climatic projection record representing the down-scaled A1B market scenario (a balance across all sources of the assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC is used to produce future daily data about relative humidity, precipitation, temperature and wind speed. Two types of meteorological services are made available: i a bi-weekly bulletin; and ii seasonal forecasts. The precision of these services was altered to represent different conditions, from perfect knowledge to poor forecasts. Using the available forecasts, farming agents take adaptation decisions concerning crop allocation and irrigation management on the basis of their own risk attitudes. Farmers’ attitudes are characterized by fuzzy classifications depending on age, relative income and crop profitability. Farming agents’ adaptation decisions directly affect the crop and irrigation parameters, which in turn affect future water needs on a territorial level. By incorporating available and future meteorological services, the model allows the farmer’s decision making-process to be explored together with the consequent future irrigation water demand for the period 2015 to 2030. The model prototype is applied to a data set of the Venice Lagoon Watershed, an area of 2038 km2 in north-east Italy, for a preliminary test of its performance and to design future development objectives.

  13. An overview of some concepts, potentials, issues, and realities of assisted migration for climate change adaptation in forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis R. Iverson; Matthew P. Peters; Stephen Matthews; Anantha. Prasad

    2013-01-01

    The climate has always been changing, but the rapid rate of climate change, as projected by the IPCC (2007) will likely place unique stresses on plant communities. In addition, anthropogenic barriers (e.g., fragmented land use) present a significant modern constraint that will limit the ability of species migration in responses to a changing climate. As such, managers...

  14. facing the challenges of climate change and food security : the role of research, extension and communication for development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeuwis, C.; Hall, A.; Weperen, van W.; Preissing, J.

    2013-01-01

    In line with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) this study defines climate change as any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. This report is a shortened version of the final study report, produced on request of FAO. The

  15. The climate is changing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfsen, Knut H.

    2001-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has finalized its Third Assessment Report. Among its conclusions is that we must expect continued changes in our climate, despite our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Planning for and adapting to climate change are therefore necessary. As a starting point, CICERO has written this short note on expected impacts in Norway. The main conclusions are that (1) Adaptation to climate change is necessary (2) Substantial impacts are expected for several important sectors in Norway (3) The local and central authorities should now consider and start planning for adaptation measures. (4) There is still a need for more knowledge about potential impacts of climate change in Norway. (author)

  16. Prevalence of naturally occurring NS5A resistance-associated substitutions in patients infected with hepatitis C virus subtype 1a, 1b, and 3a, co-infected or not with HIV in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malta, Fernanda; Gaspareto, Karine Vieira; Lisboa-Neto, Gaspar; Carrilho, Flair José; Mendes-Correa, Maria Cássia; Pinho, João Renato Rebello

    2017-11-13

    Non-structural 5A protein (NS5A) resistance-associated substitutions (RASs) have been identified in patients infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV), even prior to exposure to direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs). Selection for these variants occurs rapidly during treatment and, in some cases, leads to antiviral treatment failure. DAAs are currently the standard of care for hepatitis C treatment in many parts of the world. Nevertheless, in Brazil, the prevalence of pre-existing NS5A RASs is largely unknown. In this study, we evaluated the frequency of naturally occurring NS5A RASs in Brazilian patients infected with HCV as either a monoinfection or coinfection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Direct Sanger sequencing of the NS5A region was performed in 257 DAA-naïve patients chronically infected with HCV (156 monoinfected with HCV and 101 coinfected with HIV/HCV). The frequencies of specific RASs in monoinfected patients were 14.6% for HCV GT-1a (M28 V and Q30H/R), 6.0% for GT-1b (L31F/V and Y93H), and 22.6% for GT-3a (A30K and Y93H). For HIV/HCV-coinfected patients, the frequencies of RAS were 3.9% for GT-1a (M28 T and Q30H/R), and 11.1% for GT-1b (Y93H); no RASs were found in GT-3a sequences. Substitutions that may confer resistance to NS5A inhibitors exist at baseline in Brazilian DAA-naïve patients infected with HCV GT-1a, -1b, and -3a. Standardization of RAS definitions is needed to improve resistance analyses and to facilitate comparisons of substitutions reported across studies worldwide. Therapeutic strategies should be optimized to efficiently prevent DAA treatment failure due to selection for RASs, especially in difficult-to-cure patients.

  17. A history of the science and politics of climate change: the role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolin, B. [University of Stockholm, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2007-11-15

    In response to growing concern about human-induced global climate change, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was formed in 1988. Written by its first Chairman, this book is a unique overview of the history of the IPCC. It describes and evaluates the intricate interplay between key factors in the science and politics of climate change, the strategy that has been followed, and the regretfully slow pace in getting to grips with the uncertainties that have prevented earlier action being taken. The book also highlights the emerging conflict between establishing a sustainable global energy system and preventing a serious change in global climate. Contents are: Part I. The Early History of the Climate Change Issue: 1. Nineteenth century discoveries; 2. The natural carbon cycle and life on earth; 3. Global research initiatives in meteorology and climatology; 4. Early international assessments of climate change; Part II. The Climate Change Issue Becomes One of Global Concern: 5. Setting the stage; 6. The scientific basis for a climate convention; 7. Serving the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee; 8. The Second IPP Assessment Report; 9. In the aftermath of the IPCC Second Assessment; 10. The Kyoto Protocol is agreed and a third assessment begun; 11. A decade of hesitance and slow progress; Part III. A Turning Point in Addressing Climate Change?: 12. Key scientific finding of prime political relevance; 13. Climate change and the future global energy supply system; Concluding remarks. 9 figs.

  18. Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, P.

    2014-12-01

    This environmental health risk assessment and management approach for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is based almost entirely on IPCC AR5 (2014) content, but the IPCC does not make recommendations. Large climate model uncertainties may be large environmental health risks. In accordance with environmental health risk management, we use the standard (IPCC-endorsed) formula of risk as the product of magnitude times probability, with an extremely high standard of precaution. Atmospheric GHG pollution, causing global warming, climate change and ocean acidification, is increasing as fast as ever. Time is of the essence to inform and make recommendations to governments and the public. While the 2ºC target is the only formally agreed-upon policy limit, for the most vulnerable nations, a 1.5ºC limit is being considered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. The Climate Action Network International (2014), representing civil society, recommends that the 1.5ºC limit be kept open and that emissions decline from 2015. James Hansen et al (2013) have argued that 1ºC is the danger limit. Taking into account committed global warming, its millennial duration, multiple large sources of amplifying climate feedbacks and multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change on crops, and population health impacts, all the IPCC AR5 scenarios carry extreme environmental health risks to large human populations and to the future of humanity as a whole. Our risk consideration finds that 2ºC carries high risks of many catastrophic impacts, that 1.5ºC carries high risks of many disastrous impacts, and that 1ºC is the danger limit. IPCC AR4 (2007) showed that emissions must be reversed by 2015 for a 2ºC warming limit. For the IPCC AR5 only the best-case scenario RCP2.6, is projected to stay under 2ºC by 2100 but the upper range is just above 2ºC. It calls for emissions to decline by 2020. We recommend that for catastrophic environmental health risk aversion, emissions decline

  19. Comparison of two down-scaling methods for climate study and climate change on the mountain areas in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piazza, Marie; Page, Christian; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Terray, Laurent; Deque, Michel

    2013-01-01

    Mountain regions are highly vulnerable to climate change and are likely to be among the areas most impacted by global warming. But climate projections for the end of the 21. century are developed with general circulation models of climate, which do not present a sufficient horizontal resolution to accurately evaluate the impacts of warming on these regions. Several techniques are then used to perform a spatial down-scaling (on the order of 10 km). There are two categories of down-scaling methods: dynamical methods that require significant computational resources for the achievement of regional climate simulations at high resolution, and statistical methods that require few resources but an observation dataset over a long period and of good quality. In this study, climate simulations of the global atmospheric model ARPEGE projections over France are down-scaled according to a dynamical method, performed with the ALADIN-Climate regional model, and a statistical method performed with the software DSClim developed at CERFACS. The two down-scaling methods are presented and the results on the climate of the French mountains are evaluated for the current climate. Both methods give similar results for average snowfall. However extreme events of total precipitation (droughts, intense precipitation events) are largely underestimated by the statistical method. Then, the results of both methods are compared for two future climate projections, according to the greenhouse gas emissions scenario A1B of IPCC. The two methods agree on fewer frost days, a significant decrease in the amounts of solid precipitation and an average increase in the percentage of dry days of more than 10%. The results obtained on Corsica are more heterogeneous but they are questionable because the reduced spatial domain is probably not very relevant regarding statistical sampling. (authors)

  20. Modeling thermal structure, ice cover regime and sensitivity to climate change of two regulated lakes - a Norwegian case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebre, Solomon; Boissy, Thibault; Alfredsen, Knut

    2013-04-01

    predicted changes in inflow, inflow temperature and meteorological forcings corresponding to the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. Accordingly, in 2071-2100 compared to the recent observations (1980-2008) the modeling results show considerable reduction in seasonal ice cover duration and ice thickness. In addition, the predicted effects of climate change include a shift toward higher (warmer) withdrawal temperatures in spring. Reservoir operational procedures guided by a numerical model as outlined in this study will assist reservoir operators to comply in real time with downstream temperature requirements while optimising benefits, such as electricity production. Such a modeling effort can also be employed for assessing impacts of changes in reservoir operations (such as hydro-peaking) on the thermal regime of the reservoir itself and the downstream aquatic environment.

  1. A clarion call for aeolian research to engage with global land degradation and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chappell, Adrian; Lee, Jeffrey A.; Baddock, Matthew; Gill, Thomas E.; Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Leys, John F.; Marticorena, Beatrice; Petherick, Lynda; Schepanski, Kerstin; Tatarko, John; Telfer, Matt; Webb, Nicholas P.

    2018-06-01

    This editorial represents a clarion call for the aeolian research community to provide increased scientific input to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and an invitation to apply for ISAR funding to organize a working group to support this engagement.

  2. Quantifying the effects of climate change on water resources in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Christensen, Jens H.

    2007-01-01

    climatological output data from the regional climate model HIRHAM (Danish Meteorological Institute), which dynamically downscales the climate change signals from the coarser resolution global climate model HadAM3H (Hadley Centre), with the concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols based on the IPCC SRES A2...

  3. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, G; Stone, D

    2016-01-01

    © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts...

  4. Linking city development and adaptation to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Andrej Steiner; Rudolf Bauer; Jana Knezova

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is happening, projected to continue and poses serious challenges also for cities' development. Extreme weather events resulting in hazards such as heat waves, floods and droughts are expected to happen more frequently in many parts of Europe. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts global temperatures to rise an additional 2-4˚C by the end of this century and graduation of weather extremes. While urban areas will generally experience the sam...

  5. "Climate change" and vulnerability analysis: poor will become poorer

    OpenAIRE

    Ozer, Pierre

    2013-01-01

    The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5) considers new evidence of climate change based on many independent scientific analyses from observations of the climate system, paleoclimate archives, theoretical studies of climate processes and simulations using climate models. “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warme...

  6. Impacts of transportation sector emissions on future U.S. air quality in a changing climate. Part II: Air quality projections and the interplay between emissions and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Patrick; Zhang, Yang; Yan, Fang; Lu, Zifeng; Streets, David

    2018-07-01

    In Part II of this work we present the results of the downscaled offline Weather Research and Forecasting/Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF/CMAQ) model, included in the "Technology Driver Model" (TDM) approach to future U.S. air quality projections (2046-2050) compared to a current-year period (2001-2005), and the interplay between future emission and climate changes. By 2046-2050, there are widespread decreases in future concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO x  = NO + NO 2 ), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ammonia (NH 3 ), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ) due mainly to decreasing on-road vehicle (ORV) emissions near urban centers as well as decreases in other transportation modes that include non-road engines (NRE). However, there are widespread increases in daily maximum 8-hr ozone (O 3 ) across the U.S., which are due to enhanced greenhouse gases (GHG) including methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario, and isolated areas of larger reduction in transportation emissions of NO x compared to that of VOCs over regions with VOC-limited O 3 chemistry. Other notable future changes are reduced haze and improved visibility, increased primary organic to elemental carbon ratio, decreases in PM 2.5 and its species, decreases and increases in dry deposition of SO 2 and O 3 , respectively, and decreases in total nitrogen (TN) deposition. There is a tendency for transportation emission and CH 4 changes to dominate the increases in O 3 , while climate change may either enhance or mitigate these increases in the west or east U.S., respectively. Climate change also decreases PM 2.5 in the future. Other variable changes exhibit stronger susceptibility to either emission (e.g., CO, NO x , and TN deposition) or climate changes (e.g., VOC, NH 3 , SO 2 , and total sulfate deposition), which also have a strong

  7. Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Processes of a Small Agricultural Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sushant Mehan

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Weather extremes and climate variability directly impact the hydrological cycle influencing agricultural productivity. The issues related to climate change are of prime concern for every nation as its implications are posing negative impacts on society. In this study, we used three climate change scenarios to simulate the impact on local hydrology of a small agricultural watershed. The three emission scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios, of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007 analyzed in this study were A2 (high emission, A1B (medium emission, and B1 (low emission. A process based hydrologic model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated and validated for the Skunk Creek Watershed located in eastern South Dakota. The model performance coefficients revealed a strong correlation between simulated and observed stream flow at both monthly and daily time step. The Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency for monthly model performace was 0.87 for the calibration period and 0.76 for validation period. The future climate scenarios were built for the mid-21st century time period ranging from 2046 to 2065. The future climate data analysis showed an increase in temperatures between 2.2 °C to 3.3 °C and a decrease in precipitation from 1.8% to 4.5% expected under three different climate change scenarios. A sharp decline in stream flow (95.92%–96.32%, run-off (83.46%–87.00%, total water yield (90.67%–91.60%, soil water storage (89.99%–92.47%, and seasonal snow melt (37.64%–43.06% are predicted to occur by the mid-21st century. In addition, an increase in evapotranspirative losses (2%–3% is expected to occur within the watershed when compared with the baseline period. Overall, these results indicate that the watershed is highly susceptible to hydrological and agricultural drought due to limited water availability. These results are limited to the available climate projections, and future refinement in

  8. "Possible impacts of climate change on the Danube river along the Iron Gate gorge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adamovic, M.

    2009-04-01

    The research was dedicated to foreseeing the possible impacts of climate change on water resources in eastern part of Serbia, along the Danube catchment. The Danube basin is in the eastern section of the considered RCM ( Regional climate model). For this purposes, the RCM EBU-POM according to the IPCC scenario A1B, was used in its representation of the hydrological balance over the Danube river basin along Iron Gate gorge, for the time frame 1961-1990 and 2071-2100. The Danube's catchment encompasses continental climate, as it is land-dominated by advection from the surrounding land areas. This part of Danube catchment is greatly affected by the Mediterranean climate, since the Danube runoff gives a relevant contribution of freshwater flux into the Mediterranean sea and it is dependent mostly on precipitated water of Mediterranean origin. On the other, the Dinaric-Balkan mountain chains in the west and the Carpathian mountain bow in the north and east, present distinctive morphological and climatic regions and barriers. The hydrological balance has been computed in two different, but in principle equivalent ways. The first approach, which has a more hydrological nuance, relies on establishing relationships between annual averages of the hydrological balance parameters (E, P, T) in order to get relevant coefficients. The second approach, which is more typically meteorological, relies on the calculation of the E for the time frame 2071-2100 by using the previous coefficients and getting runoff depth (h) and discharge (Q) as the final outputs. The results according to this model, show that the river flow of the Danube, in this part of its basin, will decrease over 50% with a great consequences to the dams Iron Gate I and II, their accumulations and ecosystems. Furthermore, if we take into account predictions made by IPCC which say that the south-east Europe will face temperature growth of 0.2 degrees in the next two decades for the range of SRES scenarios, makes the

  9. Framing risk and uncertainty in social science articles on climate change, 1995–2012

    OpenAIRE

    Shaw, Chris; Hellsten, Iina; Nerlich, Brigitte

    2016-01-01

    The issue of climate change is intimately linked to notions of risk and uncertainty, concepts that pose challenges to climate science, climate change communication, and science-society interactions. While a large majority of climate scientists are increasingly certain about the causes of climate change and the risks posed by its impacts (see IPCC, 2013 and 2014), public perception of climate change is still largely framed by uncertainty, especially regarding impacts (Poortinga et al., 2011). ...

  10. Climate change impact assessment in Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part II: a spatially resolved regional risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Rizzi, J; Zabeo, A; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impact assessment on water resources has received high international attention over the last two decades, due to the observed global warming and its consequences at the global to local scale. In particular, climate-related risks for groundwater and related ecosystems pose a great concern to scientists and water authorities involved in the protection of these valuable resources. The close link of global warming with water cycle alterations encourages research to deepen current knowledge on relationships between climate trends and status of water systems, and to develop predictive tools for their sustainable management, copying with key principles of EU water policy. Within the European project Life+ TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groundwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change), a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed in order to identify impacts from climate change on groundwater and associated ecosystems (e.g. surface waters, agricultural areas, natural environments) and to rank areas and receptors at risk in the high and middle Veneto and Friuli Plain (Italy). Based on an integrated analysis of impacts, vulnerability and risks linked to climate change at the regional scale, a RRA framework complying with the Sources-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) approach was defined. Relevant impacts on groundwater and surface waters (i.e. groundwater level variations, changes in nitrate infiltration processes, changes in water availability for irrigation) were selected and analyzed through hazard scenario, exposure, susceptibility and risk assessment. The RRA methodology used hazard scenarios constructed through global and high resolution model simulations for the 2071-2100 period, according to IPCC A1B emission scenario in order to produce useful indications for future risk prioritization and to support the addressing of adaptation measures, primarily Managed Artificial Recharge (MAR) techniques. Relevant

  11. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

    2016-08-01

    The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 mg m3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere’s near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth’s surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m2 . This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR’s CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol

  12. Climate change and its linkages with development, equity and sustainability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munasinghe, M.; Swart, R.

    2000-01-01

    The IPCC Working Groups 2 and 3 (on impacts and adaptation, and on mitigation, respectively) have taken the initiative to organise a number of expert meetings. The main goals of the meetings are: (a) to increase co-ordination among, and inform lead authors about development, equity and sustainability (DES) issues and climate change; and (b) to better place the IPCC Third Assessment Report in the context of DES, through enhanced access to the best available scientific, technical economic and social information from across the world. The rapidly growing economies of Asia will play a key role in determining future climate change policy. Thus, the organisation of the first expert meeting in Colombo, Sri Lanka, under the able guidance of Professor Mohan Munasinghe, is very appropriate. The conference has provided a crucial first step towards broadening the scope of the IPCC reports, by integrating DES issues into climate change response strategies. This Proceedings volume is also important as a key policy-relevant (but not policy-prescriptive) vehicle that will better inform worldwide networks of scientists from different regional, cultural and disciplinary backgrounds, in their pursuit of the best scientific information on the linkages between climate change and sustainable development. refs

  13. Climatic and ecological future of the Amazon: likelihood and causes of change

    OpenAIRE

    B. Cook; N. Zeng; J.-H. Yoon

    2010-01-01

    Some recent climate modeling results suggested a possible dieback of the Amazon rainforest under future climate change, a prediction that raised considerable interest as well as controversy. To determine the likelihood and causes of such changes, we analyzed the output of 15 models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC/AR4) and a dynamic vegetation model VEGAS driven by these climate output. Our results suggest that the core of the Amazon rainforest...

  14. Climate for women in climate science: Women scientists and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gay-Antaki, Miriam; Liverman, Diana

    2018-02-27

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an authoritative and influential source of reports on climate change. The lead authors of IPCC reports include scientists from around the world, but questions have been raised about the dominance of specific disciplines in the report and the disproportionate number of scholars from the Global North. In this paper, we analyze the as-yet-unexamined issue of gender and IPCC authorship, looking at changes in gender balance over time and analyzing women's views about their experience and barriers to full participation, not only as women but also at the intersection of nationality, race, command of English, and discipline. Over time, we show that the proportion of female IPCC authors has seen a modest increase from less than 5% in 1990 to more than 20% in the most recent assessment reports. Based on responses from over 100 women IPCC authors, we find that many women report a positive experience in the way in which they are treated and in their ability to influence the report, although others report that some women were poorly represented and heard. We suggest that an intersectional lens is important: not all women experience the same obstacles: they face multiple and diverse barriers associated with social identifiers such as race, nationality, command of English, and disciplinary affiliation. The scientific community benefits from including all scientists, including women and those from the Global South. This paper documents barriers to participation and identifies opportunities to diversify climate science. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  15. The Ethical Dimension of Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrara, V.

    2006-01-01

    The ethical dimension of climate change and the problem of fairness in implementing Kyoto Protocol and the post-Kyoto phase have become the hinge around which the negotiating process can be re launched or definitely blocked. This article discusses some aspects of the international debate that can be useful in understanding the issues. ENEA conducts no programmatic activities of its own in this field, but, as the national Focal Point for IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), it participates in the international exchange of information on the subject [it

  16. 2007 status of climate changes: synthesis report. Summary for policy-makers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    This Synthesis Report is based on the assessment carried out by the three Working Groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It provides an integrated view of climate change as the final part of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Topic 1 summarises observed changes in climate and their effects on natural and human systems, regardless of their causes, while topic 2 assesses the causes of the observed changes. Topic 3 presents projections of future climate change and related impacts under different scenarios. Topic 4 discusses adaptation and mitigation options over the next few decades and their interactions with sustainable development. Topic 5 assesses the relationship between adaptation and mitigation on a more conceptual basis and takes a longer-term perspective. Topic 6 summarises the major robust findings and remaining key uncertainties in this assessment

  17. Arctic sea ice decline: Projected changes in timing and extent of sea ice in the Bering and Chukchi Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, David C.

    2010-01-01

    The Arctic region is warming faster than most regions of the world due in part to increasing greenhouse gases and positive feedbacks associated with the loss of snow and ice cover. One consequence has been a rapid decline in Arctic sea ice over the past 3 decades?a decline that is projected to continue by state-of-the-art models. Many stakeholders are therefore interested in how global warming may change the timing and extent of sea ice Arctic-wide, and for specific regions. To inform the public and decision makers of anticipated environmental changes, scientists are striving to better understand how sea ice influences ecosystem structure, local weather, and global climate. Here, projected changes in the Bering and Chukchi Seas are examined because sea ice influences the presence of, or accessibility to, a variety of local resources of commercial and cultural value. In this study, 21st century sea ice conditions in the Bering and Chukchi Seas are based on projections by 18 general circulation models (GCMs) prepared for the fourth reporting period by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007. Sea ice projections are analyzed for each of two IPCC greenhouse gas forcing scenarios: the A1B `business as usual? scenario and the A2 scenario that is somewhat more aggressive in its CO2 emissions during the second half of the century. A large spread of uncertainty among projections by all 18 models was constrained by creating model subsets that excluded GCMs that poorly simulated the 1979-2008 satellite record of ice extent and seasonality. At the end of the 21st century (2090-2099), median sea ice projections among all combinations of model ensemble and forcing scenario were qualitatively similar. June is projected to experience the least amount of sea ice loss among all months. For the Chukchi Sea, projections show extensive ice melt during July and ice-free conditions during August, September, and October by the end of the century, with high agreement

  18. Daily temperature changes and variability in ENSEMBLES regional models predictions: Evaluation and intercomparison for the Ebro Valley (NE Iberia)

    KAUST Repository

    El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; Ló pez-Moreno, Juan Ignacio; McCabe, Matthew; Brunsell, Nathaniel A.; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.

    2014-01-01

    We employ a suite of regional climate models (RCMs) to assess future changes in summer (JJA) maximum temperature (Tmax) over the Ebro basin, the largest hydrological division in the Iberian Peninsula. Under the A1B emission scenario, future changes

  19. Análisis de escenarios de cambio climático A1B, A2 y B1 para la reserva forestal protectora bosque oriental de Bogotá años 2040, 2070 y 2095 utilizando MarksimGCM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johny Roberto Rodríguez Pérez

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available El siguiente artículo presenta los resultados y análisis de las condiciones climáticas futuras de temperatura y precipitación para la Reserva Forestal Bosque Protector Cerros Orientales de Bogotá (RFPBOB. Para esto, se simularon los escenarios de cambio climático: A1B, A2 y B1 en los años 2040, 2070 y 2095. La simulación de las condiciones climáticas futuras en la RFPBOB tuvo en cuenta las variables: temperatura y precipitación, descritas bajo escenarios de cambio climático aplicando modelos de circulación general en MarkSimGCM. Se encontró que para todos los escenarios la temperatura aumentará para el año 2095, respecto al periodo de referencia 1960-1990. Los incrementos esperados para cada escenario son: 3,6 °C A1B, 4,3 °C A2, 2,5 °C B1. El escenario más caluroso es el A2, seguido por el A1B y el B1. Para el caso de la precipitación anual la tendencia es hacia el aumento respecto al periodo de referencia en los escenarios A1B y A2, en el escenario B1 la variación no es significativa, 21% A1B, 14,5 % A2, 1 % B1. Producto de la comparación de los resultados encontrados en MarkSimGCM con resultados de estudios previos particularmente realizados por el Instituto de Investigaciones Ambientales (Ideam, se encontraron diferencias particularmente en la precipitación, siendo mucho más bajos los incrementos en la simulación efectuada en esta investigación Para la temperatura, los escenarios realizados por el Ideam coinciden con los discutidos en este estudio. Los escenarios comparados fueron el A1B y el A2.

  20. The use of the Climate-science Computational End Station (CCES) development and grand challenge team for the next IPCC assessment: an operational plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Washington, W M; Buja, L; Gent, P; Drake, J; Erickson, D; Anderson, D; Bader, D; Dickinson, R; Ghan, S; Jones, P; Jacob, R

    2008-01-01

    The grand challenge of climate change science is to predict future climates based on scenarios of anthropogenic emissions and other changes resulting from options in energy and development policies. Addressing this challenge requires a Climate Science Computational End Station consisting of a sustained climate model research, development, and application program combined with world-class DOE leadership computing resources to enable advanced computational simulation of the Earth system. This project provides the primary computer allocations for the DOE SciDAC and Climate Change Prediction Program. It builds on the successful interagency collaboration of the National Science and the U.S. Department of Energy in developing and applying the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) for climate change science. It also includes collaboration with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration in carbon data assimilation and university partners with expertise in high-end computational climate research

  1. Implementing Local Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Actions: The Role of Various Policy Instruments in a Multi-Level Governance Context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keskitalo, E. Carina H.; Juhola, Sirkku; Baron, Nina

    2016-01-01

    Recently, considerable focus, e.g., in the fifth IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Assessment Report (2014) has been trained on why adaptation and mitigation have not been developed more than at present, with relatively few local government actions taken compared with, for example,...

  2. CLIMATE CHANGES: CAUSES AND IMPACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Slave

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Present brings several environmental problems for people. Many of these are closely related, but by far the most important problem is the climate change. In the course of Earth evolution, climate has changed many times, sometimes dramatically. Warmer eras always replaced and were in turn replaced by glacial ones. However, the climate of the past almost ten thousand years has been very stable. During this period human civilization has also developed. In the past nearly 100 years - since the beginning of industrialization - the global average temperature has increased by approx. 0.6 ° C (after IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, faster than at any time in the last 1000 years.

  3. Changing Climate in the MENA Means Changing Energy Needs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Fenech

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The leading authority on climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC hasconcluded that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and will continue for centuries. The regionsin the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA have experienced numerous extreme climate events overthe past few years including the 2009 flooding in Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; the 2005 dust stormin Al Asad, Iraq; water scarcity throughout the Arab MENA; and the rising sea levels on the Nile Deltacoast, Egypt. A climate baseline can be developed for regions in the MENA by locating climate stations inthe study area using observations made in the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS. For projectionsof future climate, global climate models (GCMs, mathematical equations that describe the physics, fluidmotion and chemistry of the atmosphere, are the most advanced science available. The Climate ResearchLab at the University of Prince Edward Island has a dataset available to researchers, called the Climate,Ocean and Atmosphere Data Exchange (COADE, that provides easy access to the output from fortyglobal climate models used in the deliberations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s(IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 including monthly global climate model projections of future climatechange for a number of climate parameters including temperature and precipitation. Over the past 50years, climate changes in the MENA Region have led to increases in annual mean temperatures anddecreases in annual total precipitation. Applying all four greenhouse gas emission futures on a baseclimate normal of 1981-2010 to an ensemble of forty global climate models used in the Fifth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5 results in future temperatureincreases for the MENA Region ranging from 1.6 to 2.3 degrees Celsius, and in a range of futureprecipitation changes from reductions of 11 percent to increases of 36 percent

  4. Climate change adaptation via targeted ecosystem service provision: a sustainable land management strategy for the Segura catchment (SE Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zagaria, Cecilia; de Vente, Joris; Perez-Cutillas, Pedro

    2014-05-01

    valuation. Scenario impacts upon the three prioritized ecosystem services were evaluated under present and expected future climate conditions (IPCC A1B scenario storyline for 2050) using ensemble regional climate model predictions. Results are given for both the entire Segura catchment as well as for delineated sub-catchments. This study's value lies in providing relevant stakeholders with quantitative information upon which SLM strategies result in greatest ecosystem service provision and tradeoffs, and thus greatest resilience to expected climate change impacts. Furthermore, this research hopes to contribute towards the mainstreaming of the ecosystem services concept in land management policy and research, and thus to familiarize relevant stakeholders with the concept, facilitating scaling-up processes by communicating the necessity and a means to successfully achieve climate adaptation.

  5. Projected Changes on the Global Surface Wave Drift Climate towards the END of the Twenty-First Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrasco, Ana; Semedo, Alvaro; Behrens, Arno; Weisse, Ralf; Breivik, Øyvind; Saetra, Øyvind; Håkon Christensen, Kai

    2016-04-01

    The global wave-induced current (the Stokes Drift - SD) is an important feature of the ocean surface, with mean values close to 10 cm/s along the extra-tropical storm tracks in both hemispheres. Besides the horizontal displacement of large volumes of water the SD also plays an important role in the ocean mix-layer turbulence structure, particularly in stormy or high wind speed areas. The role of the wave-induced currents in the ocean mix-layer and in the sea surface temperature (SST) is currently a hot topic of air-sea interaction research, from forecast to climate ranges. The SD is mostly driven by wind sea waves and highly sensitive to changes in the overlaying wind speed and direction. The impact of climate change in the global wave-induced current climate will be presented. The wave model WAM has been forced by the global climate model (GCM) ECHAM5 wind speed (at 10 m height) and ice, for present-day and potential future climate conditions towards the end of the end of the twenty-first century, represented by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) CMIP3 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 3) A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario (usually referred to as a ''medium-high emissions'' scenario). Several wave parameters were stored as output in the WAM model simulations, including the wave spectra. The 6 hourly and 0.5°×0.5°, temporal and space resolution, wave spectra were used to compute the SD global climate of two 32-yr periods, representative of the end of the twentieth (1959-1990) and twenty-first (1969-2100) centuries. Comparisons of the present climate run with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA-40 reanalysis are used to assess the capability of the WAM-ECHAM5 runs to produce realistic SD results. This study is part of the WRCP-JCOMM COWCLIP (Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project) effort.

  6. Assessing Climate Change Impacts for DoD installations in the Southwest United States During the Warm Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-10

    thunderstorms under the influence of anthropogenic climate change. Convective-permitting modeling is the most viable and physically robust approach to...been considered. Long-term climate changes during approximately the last 30 years (since 1980) are deemed to be anthropogenically influenced , and...1998. Implementation of prognostic cloud scheme for a regional spectral model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 2621–2639 IPCC, 2013. Climate Change 2013. The

  7. Impact of 2000–2050 climate change on fine particulate matter (PM2.5 air quality inferred from a multi-model analysis of meteorological modes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. J. Jacob

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Studies of the effect of climate change on fine particulate matter (PM2.5 air quality using general circulation models (GCMs show inconsistent results including in the sign of the effect. This reflects uncertainty in the GCM simulations of the regional meteorological variables affecting PM2.5. Here we use the CMIP3 archive of data from fifteen different IPCC AR4 GCMs to obtain improved statistics of 21st-century trends in the meteorological modes driving PM2.5 variability over the contiguous US. We analyze 1999–2010 observations to identify the dominant meteorological modes driving interannual PM2.5 variability and their synoptic periods T. We find robust correlations (r > 0.5 of annual mean PM2.5 with T, especially in the eastern US where the dominant modes represent frontal passages. The GCMs all have significant skill in reproducing present-day statistics for T and we show that this reflects their ability to simulate atmospheric baroclinicity. We then use the local PM2.5-to-period sensitivity (dPM2.5/dT from the 1999–2010 observations to project PM2.5 changes from the 2000–2050 changes in T simulated by the 15 GCMs following the SRES A1B greenhouse warming scenario. By weighted-average statistics of GCM results we project a likely 2000–2050 increase of ~ 0.1 μg m−3 in annual mean PM2.5 in the eastern US arising from less frequent frontal ventilation, and a likely decrease albeit with greater inter-GCM variability in the Pacific Northwest due to more frequent maritime inflows. Potentially larger regional effects of 2000–2050 climate change on PM2.5 may arise from changes in temperature, biogenic emissions, wildfires, and vegetation, but are still unlikely to affect annual PM2.5 by more than 0.5 μg m−3.

  8. Climate change - the contribution from air travel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beesley, Colin

    2000-01-01

    The paper discusses the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report on Aviation and the Global Atmosphere (published in 1999). It was considered necessary to treat air transport on its own since aircraft are unique in delivering emissions into the upper atmosphere rather than at ground level. The study was commissioned at the request of the International Civil Aviation Organisation and the Montreal Protocol. More than 300 experts contributed and the report has quantified the effect of aviation on the atmosphere on a world wide basis and highlighted areas where improved data are required. (UK)

  9. Global change and relative sea level rise at Venice: what impact in term of flooding

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carbognin, Laura; Tosi, Luigi [Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council, Venice (Italy); Teatini, Pietro [Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council, Venice (Italy); University of Padova, Department of Mathematical Methods and Models for Scientific Applications, Padua (Italy); Tomasin, Alberto [Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council, Venice (Italy); University Ca' Foscari in Venice, Venice (Italy)

    2010-11-15

    Relative sea level rise (RSLR) due to climate change and geodynamics represents the main threat for the survival of Venice, emerging today only 90 cm above the Northern Adriatic mean sea level (msl). The 25 cm RSLR occurred over the 20th century, consisting of about 12 cm of land subsidence and 13 cm of sea level rise, has increased the flood frequency by more than seven times with severe damages to the urban heritage. Reasonable forecasts of the RSLR expected to the century end must be investigated to assess the suitability of the Mo.S.E. project planned for the city safeguarding, i.e., the closure of the lagoon inlets by mobile barriers. Here we consider three RSLR scenarios as resulting from the past sea level rise recorded in the Northern Adriatic Sea, the IPCC mid-range A1B scenario, and the expected land subsidence. Available sea level measurements show that more than 5 decades are required to compute a meaningful eustatic trend, due to pseudo-cyclic 7-8 year long fluctuations. The period from 1890 to 2007 is characterized by an average rate of 0.12 {+-} 0.01 cm/year. We demonstrate that linear regression is the most suitable model to represent the eustatic process over these 117 year. Concerning subsidence, at present Venice is sinking due to natural causes at 0.05 cm/year. The RSLR is expected to range between 17 and 53 cm by 2100, and its repercussions in terms of flooding frequency are associated here to each scenario. In particular, the frequency of tides higher than 110 cm, i.e., the value above which the gates would close the lagoon to the sea, will increase from the nowadays 4 times per year to a range between 20 and 250. These projections provide a large spread of possible conditions concerning the survival of Venice, from a moderate nuisance to an intolerable aggression. Hence, complementary solutions to Mo.S.E. may well be investigated. (orig.)

  10. Analysis of Current and Future Water Demands in the Upper Indus Basin under IPCC Climate and Socio-Economic Scenarios Using a Hydro-Economic WEAP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Amin

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Pakistan is currently facing physical and economic water scarcity issues that are further complicated by the rapid increase in its population and by climate change. Many studies have focused on the physical water scarcity using hydrological modeling and the measurement of the impact of climate change on water resources in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB. However, few studies have concentrated on the importance of the economic water scarcity, that is, the water management issue under the looming impacts of climate change and the population explosion of Pakistan. The purpose of this study is to develop a management strategy which helps to achieve water security and sustainability in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB with the help of different socio-economic and climate change scenarios using WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning modeling. The streamflow data of five sub-basins (Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, and Astore and the entire Upper Indus Basin (UIB were calibrated (2006–2010 and validated (2011–2014 in the WEAP model. The coefficient of determination and Nash Sutcliffe values for the calibration period ranged from 0.81–0.96. The coefficient of determination and the Nash Sutcliffe values for the validation period ranged from 0.85–0.94. After the development of the WEAP model, the analysis of the unmet water demand and percent coverage of the water demand for the period of 2006–2050 was computed. Different scenarios were generated for external driving factors (population growth, urbanization, and living standards and the impact of climate change to evaluate their effect on the current water supply system. The results indicated that the future unmet water demand is likely to reach 134 million cubic meters (mcm by the year 2050 and that the external driving factors are putting more pressure on the supply service. This study further explores the importance of proposed dams (likely to be built until 2025 by WAPDA (Water and Power Development

  11. Climate change, global risks, challenges and decisions. Synthesis report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, K.; Steffen, W.; Schellnhuber, H.J.

    2009-03-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009 (the 15th Conference of the Parties, COP-15) will be a critical step in developing a global response to the threat of climate change caused by human activities. The primary scientific input to those negotiations is the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2007. The IPCC report has already been instrumental in increasing both public and political awareness of the societal risks associated with unchecked emission of greenhouse gases. Since the production of the IPCC report, new knowledge has emerged that furthers understanding of the impacts of human influence on the climate and the response options and approaches that are available to tackle this complex issue. To bring this new knowledge together, the International Alliance of Research Universities organised an international scientific congress on climate change, Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions, which was held in Copenhagen from 10-12 March 2009. Participants came from nearly 80 different countries and contributed with more than 1400 scientific presentations. Abstracts for all of the scientific presentations made can be found at www.iop.org/EJ/volume/1755-1315/6, and a transcript of the closing plenary session can be found at environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/opinion/39126. This synthesis report presents an up-to-date overview of a broad range of research relevant to climate change - including fundamental climate science, the impacts of a changing climate on society and environment, and the many tools and approaches available to deal effectively with the challenge of climate change. (LN)

  12. Interannual variations in length-of-day (LOD) as a tool to assess climate variability and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, E.

    2016-12-01

    On interannual time scales the atmosphere affects significantly fluctuations in the geodetic quantity of length-of-day (LOD). This effect is directly proportional to perturbations in the relative angular momentum of the atmosphere (AAM) computed from zonal winds. During El Niño events tropospheric westerlies increase due to elevated sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific inducing peak anomalies in relative AAM and correspondingly, in LOD. However, El Niño events affect LOD variations differently strong and the causes of this varying effect are yet not clear. Here, we investigate the LOD-El Niño relationship in the 20th and 21st century (1982-2100) whether the quantity of LOD can be used as a geophysical tool to assess variability and change in a future climate. In our analysis we applied a windowed discrete Fourier transform on all de-seasonalized data to remove climatic signals outside of the El Niño frequency band. LOD (data: IERS) was related in space and time to relative AAM and SSTs (data: ERA-40 reanalysis, IPCC ECHAM05-OM1 20C, A1B). Results from mapped Pearson correlation coefficients and time frequency behavior analysis identified a teleconnection pattern that we term the EN≥65%-index. The EN≥65%-index prescribes a significant change in variation in length-of-day of +65% and more related to (1) SST anomalies of >2° in the Pacific Niño region (160°E-80°W, 5°S-5°N), (2) corresponding stratospheric warming anomalies of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and (3) strong westerly winds in the lower equatorial stratosphere. In our analysis we show that the coupled atmosphere-ocean conditions prescribed in the EN≥65%-index apply to the extreme El Niño events of 19982/83 and 1997/98, and to 75% of all El Niño events in the last third of the 21st century. At that period of time the EN≥65%-index describes a projected altered base state of the equatorial Pacific that shows almost continuous El Niño conditions under climate warming.

  13. Modeling of climate change impacts on agriculture, forestry and fishery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bala, B.K.; Munnaf, M.A.

    2014-01-01

    Changes in climate affect agriculture, forest and fisheries. This paper examines the climate change impact on crop production, fishery and forestry using state - of - the - art modeling technique. Crop growth model InfoCrop was used to predict the climate change impacts on the yields of rice, wheat and maize in Bangladesh. Historical climate change scenario has little or no negative impacts on rice and wheat yields in Mymensingh and Dinajpur but IPCC climate change scenario has higher negative impacts. There is almost no change in the yields of maize for the historical climate change scenario in the Chittagong, Hill Tracts of but there is a small decrease in the yields of rice and maize for IPCC climate change scenario. A new statistical model to forecast climate change impacts on fishery in the world oceans has been developed. Total climate change impact on fishery in the Indian Ocean is negative and the predictor power is 94.14% for eastern part and 98.59% for the western part. Two models are presented for the mangrove forests of the Sundarbans. To bole volumes of the pioneer, intermediate and climax are simulated for three different logging strategies and the results have been discussed in this paper. (author)

  14. The petroleum industry's response to climate change: The role of the IPIECA Global Climate Change Working Group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemlin, J.S.; Graham Bryce, I.

    1994-01-01

    IPIECA formed the Global Climate Change Working Group in 1988 to coordinate members' efforts to understand the global climate change issue, to promote support for education and research, and to serve as the focus for engaging with international activities. The working group has sponsored a number of activities, including seminars and workshops. The Lisbon Experts Workshop on Socio-Economic Assessment of Climate Change in 1993 represents the most recent IPIECA forum for interaction between industry experts and those involved in the production of the IPCC 1995 Second Assessment Report. This workshop is described in the article. (author)

  15. An 'agenda for change': Quantifying climate change impacts on natural resource-based economies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MacGregor, James; Reid, Hannah; Sahlen, Linda

    2006-10-15

    For climate change adaptation to be beneficial to developing countries, it must begin quickly and this will require domestic political will. The third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) made clear that even if the Kyoto Protocol is fully implemented, inertia in climatic systems means that some level of climate change is unavoidable. The countries most vulnerable to CC include many developing nations; while those better-able to adapt and less willing to mitigate are those most guilty of past pollution, including many developed nations.

  16. Energy and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-15

    Climate change, and more specifically the carbon emissions from energy production and use, is one of the more vexing problems facing society today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just completed its latest assessment on the state of the science of climate change, on the potential consequences related to this change, and on the mitigation steps that could be implemented beginning now, particularly in the energy sector. Few people now doubt that anthropogenic climate change is real or that steps must be taken to deal with it. The World Energy Council has long recognized this serious concern and that in its role as the world's leading international energy organization, it can address the concerns of how to provide adequate energy for human well-being while sustaining our overall quality of life. It has now performed and published 15 reports and working papers on this subject. This report examines what has worked and what is likely to work in the future in this regard and provides policymakers with a practical roadmap to a low-carbon future and the steps needed to achieve it.

  17. Tracking the release of IPCC AR5 on Twitter: Users, comments, and sources following the release of the Working Group I Summary for Policymakers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Todd P

    2017-10-01

    Using the immediate release of the Working Group 1 Summary for Policymakers of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report as a case study, this article seeks to describe what type of actors were most active during the summary release, the substance of the most propagated tweets during the summary release, and the media sources that attracted the most attention during the summary release. The results from the study suggest that non-elite actors, such as individual bloggers and concerned citizens, accounted for the majority of the most propagated tweets in the sample. This study also finds that the majority of the most propagated tweets in the sample focused on public understanding of the report. Finally, while mainstream media sources were the most frequently discussed media sources, a number of new media and science news and information sources compete for audience attention.

  18. Scientific consensus and climate change: the codification of a global research agenda

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boehmer-Christiansen, S.

    1993-01-01

    The 'scientific consensus' which influenced the Framework Convention on Climate Change was carefully drafted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) between 1988 and 1992. In spite of it, there have been divergent national responses and policy controversy continues. The willingness of States to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases appears to be declining. An explanation for this is proposed which stresses the question of whether the nature of the scientific advice as sought and given bears some responsibility for the weak policy response. Institutional and personality factors in the formulation of IPCC advice are explored, as is the policy model upon which advice was given. It is concluded that this model is intrinsically unable to generate decisive environmental policy, but rather invites the institutions of the natural sciences and macro-economics to endow their research agendas with claims to policy relevance through the production of future 'findings'. (Author)

  19. Answers to arguments of those who doubt of the reality of an anthropogenic climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petit, Michel

    2010-01-01

    The author aims at answering the arguments stated by climate sceptics who deny the existence of a climate change due to human activities. He addresses and discusses the understanding of climate and its modelling and answers to the following statements made by climate sceptics: climatology is a new science still in its infancy; factors which influence climate remain largely unknown, climate models predict the future by using past observations; the role of water vapour is ignored whereas it is essential; nothing proves that atmosphere composition changes are related to human activities; variations in solar radiations have a more important role than atmosphere composition. In the same way, the author answers statements related to the consequences of climate changes (sea level rise is not significant; ice melt does not result in sea level rise; the Earth has experienced much higher temperatures in the past without major damages), or related to the existence of a recent climate change (the notion of average temperature is meaningless; temperature has been increasing since the beginning of the century), or related to the difference between climatology and meteorology (it's an illusion to predict the climate within a century whereas it's impossible to make weather forecasts for next month; how can we believe in global warming when winter has been long and cold), and finally regarding the IPCC (the scientific consensus of the IPCC reports makes no sense; IPCC is a closed lobby for well paid international public servants; and so on.)

  20. New climate change report turns up the heat on energy policymakers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shepherd, John [nuclear 24, London (United Kingdom)

    2014-12-15

    Any doubts about the role of nuclear power in fighting the damaging effects of climate change should be dispelled once and for all by the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The key findings of the IPCC's so-called 'Synthesis Report', published in November 2014, said that if left unchecked, climate change ''will increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems''. The Synthesis Report, which brought together the findings of the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report produced by more than 800 scientists and released over more than one year, noted that multiple mitigation pathways are available that could limit warming to below 2 C relative to pre-industrial levels, all of which would need substantial cuts in emissions reductions over the coming few decades and near-zero emissions of CO{sub 2} and other long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) by the end of the century. As 2014 draws to a close, perhaps those with the power to effect energy policy change will take time to reflect on the mounting evidence of what is good, and what is not good, in terms of balancing the world's energy needs with the planet's overall health.

  1. 75 FR 35121 - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-21

    ... of policy-relevant scientific, technical, and socio- economic information for understanding the... ``summary for policy makers'') in detail at the time that they accept the overall report. Principles and....ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-principles.pdf ; http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization...

  2. A 10-days heatwave around flowering superimposed on climate change conditions significantly affects production of 22 barley accessions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Lyngkjær, Michael F.; Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo

    2015-01-01

    Extreme climate events as heatwaves, floods and storms cause acute changes in season variability influencing primary production and are very likely to increase in magnitude and/or frequency (IPCC, AR5, WGI). In the present study 22 primarily Nordic barley accessions were grown in four basic clima...... climate change conditions on numerous accessions in order to select appropriate genotypes for breeding future cultivars that can secure the primary production....

  3. Climate change: Recent findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hesselmans, G.H.F.M.

    1993-08-01

    In the late eighties several reports have been published on climate change and sea level rise. In the meantime insights may have changed due to the availability of better and more observations and/or more advanced climate models. The aim of this report is to present the most recent findings with respect to climate change, in particular of sea level rise, storm surges and river peak flows. These climate factors are important for the safety of low-lying areas with respect to coastal erosion and flooding. In the first chapters a short review is presented of a few of the eighties reports. Furthermore, the predictions by state of the art climate models at that time are given. The reports from the eighties should be considered as 'old' information, whereas the IPCC supplement and work, for example, by Wigley should be considered as new information. To assess the latest findings two experts in this field were interviewed: dr J. Oerlemans and dr C.J.E. Schuurmans, a climate expert from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). Their views are presented together with results published in recent papers on the subject. On the basis of this assessment, the report presents current knowledge regarding predictions of climate change (including sea-level rise) over the next century, together with an assessment of the uncertainties associated with these predictions. 14 figs., 11 tabs., 24 refs

  4. Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on Tropospheric Ozone over three Centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt Hedegaard, Gitte; Brandt, Jørgen; Christensen, Jesper H.; Gross, Allan; May, Wihelm; Hansen, Kaj M.; Skjøth, Carsten A.

    2010-05-01

    So far reduction of the anthropogenic emissions of chemical species to the atmosphere has been profoundly investigated. However, new research indicates that climate change on its own also has a significant impact on the future air pollution levels. Climate Change and its impact on air pollution levels are currently studied by a number of research groups using, global, hemispherical and regional modelling systems. In the Department of Atmospheric Environment, National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), Aarhus University, in Denmark, we have developed a hemispherical model system which is based on the DEHM model (Christensen, 1997; Frohn et al., 2002a; Frohn et al., 2002b). In the DEHM modelling system an option for modelling the impacts of climate change has been included by using meteorological input from global climate models. Here we present results by using climate data that are provided by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (May, 2008; Roeckner et al., 2003). In the current experiment the anthropogenic emissions in the chemistry model DEHM are kept constant on a 2000 level to separate out the signal of climate change on air pollutants while the meteorological drivers simulated by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model is based on the IPCC SRES A1B Scenario. To save computing time the experiment is carried out in time-slices representing four centuries (1890s, 1990s, 2090s and the 2190s). The results show that the dominating impacts from climate change on a large number of the chemical species are related to the predicted temperature increase. This temperature affects chemistry as well as emissions from nature. The largest changes in both meteorology and air quality is found to happen in the 21st century. However, significant changes are also found in some parameters including tropospheric ozone in the following century. In general the background ozone concentrations is predicted to decrease at surface level however in the densely

  5. The climate crisis: An introductory guide to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenberth, Kevin E.

    2011-06-01

    Human-induced climate change, sometimes called “global warming,” has, unfortunately, become a “hot” topic, embroiled in controversy, misinformation, and claims and counterclaims. It should not be this way, because there are many scientific facts that provide solid information on which to base policy. There is a very strong observational, theoretical, and modeling base in physical science that underpins current understanding of what has happened to Earth's climate and why and what the prospects are for the future under certain assumptions. Moreover, these changes have impacts, which are apt to grow, on the environment and human society. To avoid or reduce these impacts and the economic and human effects of undesirable future climate change requires actions that are strongly opposed by those with vested interests in the status quo, some of whom have funded misinformation campaigns that have successfully confused the public and some politicians, leading to paralysis in political action. Without mitigation of climate change, one would suppose that at least society would plan sensibly for the changes already happening and projected, but such future adaptation plans are also largely in limbo. The implication is that we will suffer the consequences. All of these aspects are addressed in this informative and attractive book, which is written for a fairly general but technically informed audience. The book is strongly based upon the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and therefore has a solid scientific basis. Many figures, graphs, and maps come from the three IPCC working group reports, although the captions often do not explain the detail shown. Given that the IPCC reports totaled nearly 3000 pages, to distill the complex material down to 249 pages is no mean task, and the authors have succeeded quite well.

  6. Consequences for wind power in Sweden of climatic changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hovsenius, Gunnar; Kjellstroem, Erik

    2007-05-01

    In an earlier report to Elforsk SMHI has calculated that a total installed effect of 4000 MW in wind mills in Sweden will as an annual average generate approximately 10 TWh of electricity during the period of 1992 - 2001. These estimates has an uncertainty of ±5 %. The calculations are related to a scenario with 56 larger wind mill farms of which an essential part is located to the southern part of Sweden and to off shore installations. This study is aimed to investigate if a climate change in a future of 20 - 30 years from now will influence the wind power generation compared to the earlier study. The views of the future wind energy which are presented in this study are partly based on calculations performed at Rossby Centre, SMHI, partly on other reported studies. The calculations performed at Rossby Centre originate from three of the emission scenarios - A1B, A2 and B2 - presented by the International Panel on Climate Change, IPCC. The differences between these scenarios are marginal for the next 20-30 years. The calculations are also based on a regional climate model developed at the Rossby Centre, which has been widely accepted in the science. The boundary conditions used to the regional model are generated from two global circulation models developed at Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg. This study can be concluded in the following four points: 1. The generation of electricity from wind mills may increase by 5 - 20 % within a period of 20 - 30 years from now, compared to the period 1992 - 2001 or from 10 up to about 12 TWh per annum. A long-term increase of the wind energy in the region of the Baltic Sea seems to be a trend in several of the scientific well reputed global circulation models. 2. The energy content of the wind has during the last century varied approximately with ± 10 % in Sweden and in the region of the Baltic Sea. For the period of 1992- 2001 the energy content of the wind however decreased. If the estimated increase in wind

  7. Estimating national landfill methane emissions: an application of the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Waste Model in Panama.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weitz, Melissa; Coburn, Jeffrey B; Salinas, Edgar

    2008-05-01

    This paper estimates national methane emissions from solid waste disposal sites in Panama over the time period 1990-2020 using both the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Waste Model spreadsheet and the default emissions estimate approach presented in the 1996 IPCC Good Practice Guidelines. The IPCC Waste Model has the ability to calculate emissions from a variety of solid waste disposal site types, taking into account country- or region-specific waste composition and climate information, and can be used with a limited amount of data. Countries with detailed data can also run the model with country-specific values. The paper discusses methane emissions from solid waste disposal; explains the differences between the two methodologies in terms of data needs, assumptions, and results; describes solid waste disposal circumstances in Panama; and presents the results of this analysis. It also demonstrates the Waste Model's ability to incorporate landfill gas recovery data and to make projections. The former default method methane emissions estimates are 25 Gg in 1994, and range from 23.1 Gg in 1990 to a projected 37.5 Gg in 2020. The Waste Model estimates are 26.7 Gg in 1994, ranging from 24.6 Gg in 1990 to 41.6 Gg in 2020. Emissions estimates for Panama produced by the new model were, on average, 8% higher than estimates produced by the former default methodology. The increased estimate can be attributed to the inclusion of all solid waste disposal in Panama (as opposed to only disposal in managed landfills), but the increase was offset somewhat by the different default factors and regional waste values between the 1996 and 2006 IPCC guidelines, and the use of the first-order decay model with a time delay for waste degradation in the IPCC Waste Model.

  8. Climate change effects on Chikungunya transmission in Europe: geospatial analysis of vector's climatic suitability and virus' temperature requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Dominik; Thomas, Stephanie M; Suk, Jonathan E; Sudre, Bertrand; Hess, Andrea; Tjaden, Nils B; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Semenza, Jan C

    2013-11-12

    Chikungunya was, from the European perspective, considered to be a travel-related tropical mosquito-borne disease prior to the first European outbreak in Northern Italy in 2007. This was followed by cases of autochthonous transmission reported in South-eastern France in 2010. Both events occurred after the introduction, establishment and expansion of the Chikungunya-competent and highly invasive disease vector Aedes albopictus (Asian tiger mosquito) in Europe. In order to assess whether these outbreaks are indicative of the beginning of a trend or one-off events, there is a need to further examine the factors driving the potential transmission of Chikungunya in Europe. The climatic suitability, both now and in the future, is an essential starting point for such an analysis. The climatic suitability for Chikungunya outbreaks was determined by using bioclimatic factors that influence, both vector and, pathogen. Climatic suitability for the European distribution of the vector Aedes albopictus was based upon previous correlative environmental niche models. Climatic risk classes were derived by combining climatic suitability for the vector with known temperature requirements for pathogen transmission, obtained from outbreak regions. In addition, the longest potential intra-annual season for Chikungunya transmission was estimated for regions with expected vector occurrences.In order to analyse spatio-temporal trends for risk exposure and season of transmission in Europe, climate change impacts are projected for three time-frames (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) and two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These climatic projections are based on regional climate model COSMO-CLM, which builds on the global model ECHAM5. European areas with current and future climatic suitability of Chikungunya transmission are identified. An increase in risk is projected for Western Europe (e.g. France and Benelux-States) in the

  9. Global climate change and cryospheric evolution in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qin D.

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Major outcomes of Working Group I, IPCC AR4 (2007, as well as the recent understandings from our regional climatic assessments in China were summarized. Changes of cryosphere in China, one of the major components in regional climate system, is specifically reviewed. Under the global/regional warming, all components of cryosphere in China (Tibetan Plateau and surroundings including glaciers, frozen ground (including permafrost and snow cover show rapid decay in the last decades. These changes have big socioeconomic impacts in west China, thus encourages both government and scientists pay more and more attention to this field.

  10. Arctic Climate and Climate Change with a Focus on Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stendel, Martin; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Petersen, Dorthe

    2008-01-01

    Paleoclimatic evidence suggests that the Arctic presently is warmer than during the last 125,000 years, and it is very likely11The term "likelihood" is used here as in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). According to the definition in this rep...... Ice Sheet, the fate of arctic sea ice and a possible weakening of the thermohaline circulation (THC) under future warming conditions have led to increased research activities, including an assessment of arctic climate and climate change (ACIA, 2005), the fourth assessment report (AR4...

  11. 2007 status of climate changes: synthesis report. Summary for policy-makers; Bilan 2007 des changements climatiques: rapport de synthese. Resume a l'intention des decideurs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    This Synthesis Report is based on the assessment carried out by the three Working Groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It provides an integrated view of climate change as the final part of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Topic 1 summarises observed changes in climate and their effects on natural and human systems, regardless of their causes, while topic 2 assesses the causes of the observed changes. Topic 3 presents projections of future climate change and related impacts under different scenarios. Topic 4 discusses adaptation and mitigation options over the next few decades and their interactions with sustainable development. Topic 5 assesses the relationship between adaptation and mitigation on a more conceptual basis and takes a longer-term perspective. Topic 6 summarises the major robust findings and remaining key uncertainties in this assessment.

  12. 2007 status of climate changes: synthesis report. Summary for policy-makers; Bilan 2007 des changements climatiques: rapport de synthese. Resume a l'intention des decideurs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    This Synthesis Report is based on the assessment carried out by the three Working Groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It provides an integrated view of climate change as the final part of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Topic 1 summarises observed changes in climate and their effects on natural and human systems, regardless of their causes, while topic 2 assesses the causes of the observed changes. Topic 3 presents projections of future climate change and related impacts under different scenarios. Topic 4 discusses adaptation and mitigation options over the next few decades and their interactions with sustainable development. Topic 5 assesses the relationship between adaptation and mitigation on a more conceptual basis and takes a longer-term perspective. Topic 6 summarises the major robust findings and remaining key uncertainties in this assessment.

  13. Climate Change and Tropical Total Lightning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albrecht, R.; Petersen, W.; Buechler, D.; Goodman, S.; Blakeslee, R.; Christian, H.

    2009-01-01

    While global warming is regarded as a fact by many in the scientific community, its future impact remains a challenge to be determined and measured. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report (IPCC, 2007) shows inconclusive answers on global rainfall trends and general agreement on a future drier climate with increased global warming. The relationship between temperature, humidity and convection is not linear and is strongly dependent on regional scale features, such as topography and land cover. Furthermore, the relationship between convective lightning production (thunderstorms) and temperature is even more complicated, being subjected to the cloud dynamics and microphysics. Total lightning (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) monitoring is a relatively new field of observation. Global and tropical total lightning began to be more extensively measured by satellites in the mid 90s. In this scope, the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) onboard of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) has been operational for over 11 years. Here we address total lightning trends observed by LIS from 1998 to 2008 in different temporal (annual and seasonal) and spatial (large and regional) scales. The observed 11-year trends are then associate to different predicted/hypothesized climate change scenarios.

  14. Climate change studies and the human sciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holm, Poul; Winiwarter, Verena

    2017-09-01

    Policy makers have made repeated calls for integration of human and natural sciences in the field of climate change. Serious multidisciplinary attempts began already in the 1950s. Progress has certainly been made in understanding the role of humans in the planetary system. New perspectives have clarified policy advice, and three insights are singled out in the paper: the critique of historicism, the distinction between benign and wicked problems, and the cultural critique of the 'myths of nature'. Nevertheless, analysis of the IPCC Assessment Reports indicates that integration is skewed towards a particular dimension of human sciences (economics) and major insights from cultural theory and historical analysis have not made it into climate science. A number of relevant disciplines are almost absent in the composition of authorship. Nevertheless, selective assumptions and arguments are made about e.g. historical findings in key documents. In conclusion, we suggest to seek remedies for the lack of historical scholarship in the IPCC reports. More effort at science-policy exchange is needed, and an Integrated Platform to channel humanities and social science expertise for climate change research might be one promising way.

  15. Scenario forecasting changes in the water balance components of the Olenek and Iindigirka river basins due to possible climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye. M. Gusev

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Scenario projections of the dynamics of meteorological characteristics for the basins of the Olenek and Indigirka rivers (the Republic of Sakha in the XXI century have been obtained for four IPCC global climate change scenarios of SRES family which correspond to specified scenarios of economic, technological, political, and demographic development of human civilization. The projections have been used to calculate scenarios of possible changes in water balance components for the basins under consideration up to the year of 2063. The calculation procedure involves a physically-based model for heat and mass exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere SWAP and climate scenario generator MAGICC/SCENGEN.

  16. Regional climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-01-01

    Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

  17. SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS FOR EDUCATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ILONA PAJTÓK-TARI

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper surveys the key statements of the IPCC (2007 Reportbased mainly on the satellite-borne observations to support teaching climatechange and geography by using the potential of this technology. In theIntroduction we briefly specify the potential and the constraints of remote sensing.Next the key climate variables for indicating the changes are surveyed. Snow andsea-ice changes are displayed as examples for these applications. Testing theclimate models is a two-sided task involving satellites, as well. Validation of theability of reconstructing the present climate is the one side of the coin, whereassensitivity of the climate system is another key task, leading to consequences onthe reality of the projected changes. Finally some concluding remarks arecompiled, including a few ideas on the ways how these approaches can be appliedfor education of climate change.

  18. The Co-evolution of Climate Models and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somerville, R. C.

    2010-12-01

    As recently as the 1950s, global climate models, or GCMs, did not exist, and the notion that man-made carbon dioxide might lead to significant climate change was not regarded as a serious possibility by most experts. Today, of course, the prospect or threat of exactly this type of climate change dominates the science and ranks among the most pressing issues confronting all mankind. Indeed, the prevailing scientific view throughout the first half of the twentieth century was that adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere would have only a negligible effect on climate. The science of climate change caused by atmospheric carbon dioxide changes has thus undergone a genuine revolution. An extraordinarily rapid development of global climate models has also characterized this period, especially in the three decades since about 1980. In these three decades, the number of GCMs has greatly increased, and their physical and computational aspects have both markedly improved. Modeling progress has been enabled by many scientific advances, of course, but especially by a massive increase in available computer power, with supercomputer speeds increasing by roughly a factor of a million in the three decades from about 1980 to 2010. This technological advance has permitted a rapid increase in the physical comprehensiveness of GCMs as well as in spatial computational resolution. In short, GCMs have dramatically evolved over time, in exactly the same recent period as popular interest and scientific concern about anthropogenic climate change have markedly increased. In parallel, a unique international organization, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, has also recently come into being and also evolved rapidly. Today, the IPCC has become widely respected and globally influential. The IPCC was founded in 1988, and its history is thus even shorter than that of GCMs. Yet, its stature today is such that a series of IPCC reports assessing climate change science has already

  19. Societal Vulnerability to Climate Change and Variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Handmer, J.W.; Dovers, S.; Downing, T.E.

    1999-01-01

    Institutions in many wealthy industrialised countries are robust and their societies appear to be relatively well insulated against the impacts of climate variability, economic problems elsewhere and so on. However, many countries are not in this position, and there is a growing group of humanity which is not benefiting from the apparent global adaptive trends. Worst case scenarios reinforce the impact of this uneven distribution of adaptive capacity, both between and within countries. Nevertheless, at the broad global scale human societies are strongly adaptive and not threatened by climate change for many decades. At the local level the picture is quite different and the survival of some populations at their present locations is in doubt. In the absence of abatement, the longer term outlook is highly uncertain. Adaptation research needs to begin with an understanding of social and economic vulnerability. It requires a different approach to the traditional IPCC impacts assessment, as human behaviour, institutional capacity and culture are more important than biophysical impacts. This is consistent with the intellectual history of the IPCC which has gradually embraced an increasing range of disciplines. 32 refs

  20. Climate changes instead of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radovanović Milan M.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Air temperature changes on Earth in recent years are the subject of numerous and increasingly interdisciplinary research. In contrast to, conditionally speaking, generally accepted views that these changes are conditioned primarily by anthropogenic activity, more results appear to suggest that it is dominant natural processes about. Whether because of the proven existence of areas in which downtrends are registered or the stagnation of air temperature, as opposed to areas where the increase is determined, in scientific papers, as well as the media, the increasingly present is the use of the term climate changes instead of the global warming. In this paper, we shall try to present arguments for the debate relating to the official view of the IPCC, as well as research indicating the opposite view.

  1. Man-made climate change: an overview

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holopainen, E [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

    1996-12-31

    The first major man-made environmental problem was the soil acidification, caused primarily by the massive industrial emissions of sulphur dioxide. Then came the problem of ozone depletion, caused by the emissions of man-made halocarbons. More recently, the possibility of man-made climate change has received a lot of attention. These three man-made problems are interconnected in fundamental ways and require for their solution interdisciplinary and international approach. Narrowing of the scientific uncertainties connected with the problems mentioned above can be expected through international `Global Change` programmes such as the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP). Periodic assessments of the type produced by the IPCC will clearly be needed. Also in the future such assessments should form the scientific basis for international negotiations and conventions on the climate change issue

  2. Man-made climate change: an overview

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holopainen, E. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

    1995-12-31

    The first major man-made environmental problem was the soil acidification, caused primarily by the massive industrial emissions of sulphur dioxide. Then came the problem of ozone depletion, caused by the emissions of man-made halocarbons. More recently, the possibility of man-made climate change has received a lot of attention. These three man-made problems are interconnected in fundamental ways and require for their solution interdisciplinary and international approach. Narrowing of the scientific uncertainties connected with the problems mentioned above can be expected through international `Global Change` programmes such as the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP). Periodic assessments of the type produced by the IPCC will clearly be needed. Also in the future such assessments should form the scientific basis for international negotiations and conventions on the climate change issue

  3. Climate change at the coast: from global to local

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watkinson, A.R.

    2009-01-01

    The IPCC has recently documented substantial changes in the global heat content of the oceans, salinity, sea level, thermal expansion and biogeochemistry. Over the 21. century anticipated climate related changes include: a rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more; increases in sea surface temperatures up to 3 deg. C; an intensification of tropical and extra tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/ run-off; and ocean acidification. The Tyndall Centre has been exploring how to down-scale the global analysis to the local level within the framework of a coastal simulator. The simulator provides information on possible future states of the coast through the 21. Century under a range of climate and socio-economic futures and shoreline management options. It links models within a nested framework, recognizing three scales: (1) global, (2) regional, and (3) local. The linked models describe a range of processes, including marine climate (waves, surges and mean sea level), sand bank morpho-dynamics, wave transformation, shoreline morpho-dynamics, built environment scenarios, ecosystem change, and erosion and flood risk. Analyses from the simulator reinforce conclusions from IPCC WG2: coasts will be exposed to increasing risks over coming decades due to many compounding climate-change factors; the impact of climate change on coasts will be exacerbated by increasing human induced pressures; the unavoidability of sea-level rise even in the longer-term frequently conflicts with present day human development patterns and trends. (author)

  4. Climate change and ecosystem services: The contribution of and impacts on federal public lands in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valerie Esposito; Spencer Phillips; Roelof Boumans; Azur Moulaert; Jennifer Boggs

    2011-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007) reports a likely 2 °C to 4.5 °C temperature rise in the upcoming decades. This warming is likely to affect ecosystems and their ability to provide services that benefit human well-being. Ecosystem services valuation (ESV), meanwhile, has emerged as a way to recognize the economic value embodied in these...

  5. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baruffi, F.; Cisotto, A.; Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M.; Pretner, A.; Galli, A.; Scarinci, A.; Marsala, V.; Panelli, C.; Gualdi, S.; Bucchignani, E.; Torresan, S.; Pasini, S.; Critto, A.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961–1990 and the projection period 2010–2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071–2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble

  6. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baruffi, F. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cisotto, A., E-mail: segreteria@adbve.it [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Pretner, A.; Galli, A. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Scarinci, A., E-mail: andrea.scarinci@sgi-spa.it [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Marsala, V.; Panelli, C. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Gualdi, S., E-mail: silvio.gualdi@bo.ingv.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Bucchignani, E., E-mail: e.bucchignani@cira.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Torresan, S., E-mail: torresan@cmcc.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Pasini, S., E-mail: sara.pasini@stud.unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); Critto, A., E-mail: critto@unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); and others

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

  7. Climate change in China and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luo Y.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Since the first assessment report (FAR of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC in 1990, the international scientific community has made substantial progresses in climate change sciences. Changes in components of climate system, including the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, indicate that global warming is unequivocal. Instrumental records demonstrate that the global mean temperature has a significant increasing trend during the 20th century and in the latest 50 years the warming become faster. In the meantime, the global sea level has a strong increasing trend, as well as the snow coverage of Northern Hemisphere showed an obvious downward trend. Moreover, the global warming plays a key role in significantly affecting the climate system and social-economy on both global and regional scales, such as sea level rise, melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets, desertification, deforestation, increase of weather extremes (typhoon, hurricane and rainstorm and so on. The state of the art understanding of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 was most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in the concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Climate change issues, as a grave challenge to the sustainable development of the human society, have received ever greater attention from the international community. Deeply cognizant of the complexity and extensive influence of these issues and fully aware of the arduousness and urgency of the task of addressing climate change, the Chinese government is determined to address climate change in the process of pursuing sustainable development. The facts of climate change in China and its impacts, and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change are introduced in this paper.

  8. The future bioclimatic conditions in Austria under the aspect of climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudel, E.; Matzarakis, A.; Neumke, R.; Endler, Ch,; Koch, E.

    2009-09-01

    The IPCC quantifies Heat Stress as a combination of air temperature and air humidity. In order to describe the future bioclimatic conditions in a human-biometeorological manner the analysis a modern thermal index has been chosen. The PET (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature) allows the assessment of the effect of the thermal environment based on the energy balance of humans including thermo-physiological information. The data for the calculation of the PET came from climate models. The required data are for the climatic parameters air temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and mean cloud cover as the necessary inputs for Physiologically Equivalents Temperature. Regarding future climatic changes PET calculations for the time slices 1961 and 1990 and also 2070 and 2100 have been run in 0.5 ° resolution. By the use of statistical regression for the 0.5 ° resolution the results have been downscaled to 1 km resolution in order to identify and quantify the areas in Austria, which will be more affected bioclimatologically. The constructed maps present current and future climatic conditions and also differences for the different time slices and SRES-scenarios of the IPCC. Maps of the difference between the Physiological Equivalent temperature and air temperature have been constructed to show that the used thermal indices, which have been applied by the IPCC underestimate the expected thermal bioclimate conditions for future climate. The results offer fundamental information for tourism and recreation authorities for present and expected climatic and bioclimatic conditions.

  9. Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Walther, Bruno A; Thuiller, Wilfried

    2009-01-01

    We modelled the present and future sub-Saharan winter distributions of 64 trans-Saharan migrant passerines to predict the potential impacts of climate change. These predictions used the recent ensemble modelling developments and the latest IPCC climatic simulations to account for possible...... changes in range size and location were spatially structured, with species that winter in southern and eastern Africa facing larger range contractions and shifts. Predicted changes in regional species richness for these long-distance migrants are increases just south of the Sahara and on the Arabian...... Peninsula and major decreases in southern and eastern Africa....

  10. Climate change and natural disasters – integrating science and practice to protect health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauerborn, Rainer; Ebi, Kristie

    2012-01-01

    Background Hydro-meteorological disasters are the focus of this paper. The authors examine, to which extent climate change increases their frequency and intensity. Methods Review of IPCC-projections of climate-change related extreme weather events and related literature on health effects. Results Projections show that climate change is likely to increase the frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial distribution of a range of extreme weather events over coming decades. Conclusions There is a need for strengthened collaboration between climate scientists, the health researchers and policy-makers as well as the disaster community to jointly develop adaptation strategies to protect human. PMID:23273248

  11. The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies — A Danish water management example

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Refsgaard, J.C.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Drews, Martin

    2013-01-01

    We propose a generic framework to characterize climate change adaptation uncertainty according to three dimensions: level, source and nature. Our framework is different, and in this respect more comprehensive, than the present UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approach and could...... are epistemic (reducible) by nature but uncertainties on adaptation measures are complex, with ambiguity often being added to impact uncertainties. Strategies to deal with uncertainty in climate change adaptation should reflect the nature of the uncertainty sources and how they interact with risk level...

  12. U.S. ozone air quality under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Racherla, Pavan N; Adams, Peter J

    2009-02-01

    We examined future ozone (O3) air quality in the United States (U.S.) under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions worldwide by performing global climate-chemistry simulations, utilizing various combinations of present (1990s) and future (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 2050s) climates, and present and future (2050s; IPCC SRES A2 and B1) anthropogenic emissions. The A2 climate scenario is employed here because it lies at the upper extreme of projected climate change for the 21st century. To examine the sensitivity of U.S. O3 to regional emissions increases (decreases), the IPCC SRES A2 and B1 scenarios, which have overall higher and lower O3-precursor emissions for the U.S., respectively, have been chosen. We find that climate change, by itself, significantly worsens the severity and frequency of high-O3 events ("episodes") over most locations in the U.S., with relatively small changes in average O3 air quality. These high-O3 increases due to climate change alone will erode moderately the gains made under a U.S. emissions reduction scenario (e.g., B1). The effect of climate change on high- and average-O3 increases with anthropogenic emissions. Insofar as average O3 air quality is concerned, changes in U.S. anthropogenic emissions will play the most important role in attaining (or not) near-term U.S. O3 air quality standards. However, policy makers must plan appropriately for O3 background increases due to projected increases in global CH4 abundance and non-U.S. anthropogenic emissions, as well as potential local enhancements that they could cause. These findings provide strong incentives for more-than-planned emissions reductions at locations that are currently O3-nonattainment.

  13. Climate change and forests in India: note from the guest editors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ravindtranath, N.H.; Aaheim, Asbjporn

    2010-12-23

    Forestry is one of the most important sectors in the context of climate change. It lies at the center-stage of global mitigation and adaptation efforts. Yet, it is one of the least understood sectors, especially in tropical zones, which constitute a significant portion of the global forests. Recently, there has been a growing interest in forests in addressing global climate change. The IPCC Assessment Report 4 (2007) Chapters related to forests have highlighted the limited number of studies on the impact of climate change on forests at the regional, national and sub-national level, while policy makers need information at these scales. Further, implication of projected climate change on mitigation potential of forest sector is only briefly mentioned in the IPCC report, with limited literature to support the conclusions. India is one among the top ten nations in the world in terms of forest cover. It is also sixth among the tropical countries in terms of forested area. As IPCC Assessment Report 5 work is about to be initiated soon, studies on the impact of climate change on forests as well as the mitigation potential of the forest sector, particularly at regional and national level, will be of great interest to the scientific and policy community. In order to conserve the carbon stored in forests and to reduce CO2 emissions from the forest sector, the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) mechanism is now being finalized under the UNFCCC. In this context, climate change itself may affect the mitigation potential significantly, and it is important to understand how vulnerable the forest carbon stock (biomass and soil) in the tropics is to the projected climate change. In fact, there is a need to study the impact of climate change on forests for all the major forested countries

  14. Forest Biomass for Climate Change Mitigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Anders Tærø

    Awareness of elevated CO2 levels in the atmosphere and resulting climate change has increased focus on renewable energy sources during recent decades. Biomass for energy has been predicted to have the greatest potential for CO2 reductions in the short term and the IPCC assumes that the use...... of biomass for energy is CO2 neutral. Several studies have however criticized this CO2 neutrality assumption and questioned whether CO2 reductions actually are achieved through use of biomass for energy. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the biomass production potential of poplar plantations...... on southern Scandinavian sites, managed under different systems both in agriculture and in forests. In addition, the objective is to assess the potential of the poplar plantations to mitigate climate change by using poplar biomass for substitution of fossil fuels in comparison to a traditional product...

  15. Climate Change: Past, Present, and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, David S.; Davis, Michael G.

    2010-09-01

    Questions about global warming concern climate scientists and the general public alike. Specifically, what are the reliable surface temperature reconstructions over the past few centuries? And what are the best predictions of global temperature change the Earth might expect for the next century? Recent publications [National Research Council (NRC), 2006; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007] permit these questions to be answered in a single informative illustration by assembling temperature reconstructions of the past thousand years with predictions for the next century. The result, shown in Figure 1, illustrates present and future warming in the context of natural variations in the past [see also Oldfield and Alverson, 2003]. To quote a Chinese proverb, “A picture's meaning can express ten thousand words.” Because it succinctly captures past inferences and future projections of climate, the illustration should be of interest to scientists, educators, policy makers, and the public.

  16. The climate is changing; Klimaet er i endring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.

    2001-07-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has finalized its Third Assessment Report. Among its conclusions is that we must expect continued changes in our climate, despite our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Planning for and adapting to climate change are therefore necessary. As a starting point, CICERO has written this short note on expected impacts in Norway. The main conclusions are that (1) Adaptation to climate change is necessary (2) Substantial impacts are expected for several important sectors in Norway (3) The local and central authorities should now consider and start planning for adaptation measures. (4) There is still a need for more knowledge about potential impacts of climate change in Norway. (author)

  17. Vulnerability of Ukrainian Forests to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anatoly Shvidenko

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Ukraine is a country of the Mid-Latitude ecotone—a transition zone between forest zone and forestless dry lands. Availability of water defines distribution of the country’s forests and decreases their productivity towards the south. Climate change generates a particular threat for Ukrainian forests and stability of agroforestry landscapes. This paper considers the impacts of expected climate change on vulnerability of Ukrainian forests using ensembles of global and regional climatic models (RCM based on Scenarios B1, A2, A1B of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, and a “dry and warm” scenario A1B+T−P (increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation. The spatially explicit assessment was provided by RCM for the WMO standard period (1961–1990, “recent” (1991–2010 and three future periods: 2011–2030, 2031–2050 and 2081–2100. Forest-climate model by Vorobjov and model of amplitude of flora’s tolerance to climate change by Didukh, as well as a number of specialized climatic indicators, were used in the assessment. Different approaches lead to rather consistent conclusions. Water stress is the major limitation factor of distribution and resilience of flatland Ukrainian forests. Within Scenario A1B, the area with unsuitable growth conditions for major forest forming species will substantially increase by end of the century occupying major part of Ukraine. Scenario A1B+T−P projects even a more dramatic decline of the country’s forests. It is expected that the boundary of conditions that are favorable for forests will shift to north and northwest, and forests of the xeric belt will be the most vulnerable. Consistent policies of adaptation and mitigation might reduce climate-induced risks for Ukrainian forests.

  18. Equity in Adaptation to Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gemenne, F.

    2009-01-01

    Most observers agree that equity has become a key condition for the success of a global agreement on climate, and that any deal that would seem inequitable would be doomed to fail. The UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) makes a distinction between developed countries, developing countries, and least advanced countries; as well as between vulnerable countries and particularly vulnerable countries. The first distinction has to do with equity in mitigation efforts, whereas the latter is concerned with equity in the allocation of adaptation funding (Mace 2006). Adaptation itself is poorly defined: the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change) does not go further than defining it as the adjustment of human or natural systems confronted to a new or changing environment (IPCC 2007). It took a very long time for adaptation to be acknowledged as a key aspect of the fight against global warming. Funding mechanisms were long overdue when they were finally implemented, and remain heavily discussed. A sufficient amount of funding for adaptation appears today as the sine qua non condition for the participation of developing countries to a global deal on climate. This amount has been estimated at US$ 100 billion at least on a yearly basis, including support for mitigation efforts. However, though equity concerns have been placed at the core of the negotiation on mitigation efforts, they have been little addressed in the discussions on adaptation. As a result of this, the criteria that will be used to allocate the adaptation funding remain unclear and vague, which could be detrimental for the negotiation process as a whole. This paper aims to offer a new perspective on this issue, departing from the traditional perspective inspired by retributive justice. (author)

  19. Global Environmental Change: An integrated modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Den Elzen, M.

    1993-01-01

    Two major global environmental problems are dealt with: climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion (and their mutual interactions), briefly surveyed in part 1. In Part 2 a brief description of the integrated modelling framework IMAGE 1.6 is given. Some specific parts of the model are described in more detail in other Chapters, e.g. the carbon cycle model, the atmospheric chemistry model, the halocarbon model, and the UV-B impact model. In Part 3 an uncertainty analysis of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion is presented (Chapter 4). Chapter 5 briefly reviews the social and economic uncertainties implied by future greenhouse gas emissions. Chapters 6 and 7 describe a model and sensitivity analysis pertaining to the scientific uncertainties and/or lacunae in the sources and sinks of methane and carbon dioxide, and their biogeochemical feedback processes. Chapter 8 presents an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the carbon cycle model, the halocarbon model, and the IMAGE model 1.6 as a whole. Part 4 presents the risk assessment methodology as applied to the problems of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion more specifically. In Chapter 10, this methodology is used as a means with which to asses current ozone policy and a wide range of halocarbon policies. Chapter 11 presents and evaluates the simulated globally-averaged temperature and sea level rise (indicators) for the IPCC-1990 and 1992 scenarios, concluding with a Low Risk scenario, which would meet the climate targets. Chapter 12 discusses the impact of sea level rise on the frequency of the Dutch coastal defence system (indicator) for the IPCC-1990 scenarios. Chapter 13 presents projections of mortality rates due to stratospheric ozone depletion based on model simulations employing the UV-B chain model for a number of halocarbon policies. Chapter 14 presents an approach for allocating future emissions of CO 2 among regions. (Abstract Truncated)

  20. Hotter and drier conditions in the near future (2010-2035) might paradoxically improve the general adaptive capacity of a viticultural social-ecological system in Roussillon, southern France, exposed to long-term climatic and economic changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lereboullet, Anne-Laure; Beltrando, Gérard

    2014-05-01

    Background: Wine production in Roussillon, southern France, has been subjected to deep structural changes in cultural practices since the 1970's, due to changes in demand and market organization. In this Mediterranean region, temperature and rainfall parameters have long been adapted to fortified wine production, but might be less suited to dry wine production, which is nowadays prevailing. The wine industry in Roussillon can be studied as a social-ecological system where local economical and social characteristics are strongly linked to physical inputs. Thus changes in climate, especially warming and drying trends that have been detected and projected by the IPCC in the Mediterranean basin, may disrupt the local economy and social organization in the long term. The aim of our study is to assess the role played by recent (1956-2010) and near-future (2010-2035) changes in temperature and rainfall inputs in the evolution of the system's adaptive capacity to combined long term climatic and economic changes. Methods: Our study combined quantitative and qualitative data. We first assessed recent exposure to climate change by analysing change in daily data of temperature and rainfall observed in Perpignan weather station from 1956 to 2010. Thirty-nine in-depth interviews with local producers and key stakeholders of the local wine industry helped us understand the impacts of recent climatic conditions in the system's adaptive capacity. Then, we measured future changes in temperature and rainfall based on daily data simulated by ARPEGE-Climat (SCRATCH10 dataset) at an 8-km spatial scale, for emission scenarios A2, A1B and B1, up to 2060. Based on the impacts of recent changes in the system, we inferred the possible impacts of future climate change on the system's equilibrium. Results and discussion: Climate data analyses show that changes in temperatures and rainfall patterns have occurred in Perpignan since the mid-1980's, and that current (2001-2010) conditions are

  1. Pacific Decadal Variability and Central Pacific Warming El Niño in a Changing Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Di Lorenzo, Emanuele [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2015-02-27

    This research aimed at understanding the dynamics controlling decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean and its interactions with global-scale climate change. The first goal was to assess how the dynamics and statistics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the modes of Pacific decadal variability are represented in global climate models used in the IPCC. The second goal was to quantify how decadal dynamics are projected to change under continued greenhouse forcing, and determine their significance in the context of paleo-proxy reconstruction of long-term climate.

  2. Risk and vulnerability to global and climate change in South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mambo, Julia

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [C.B. Field, V. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir et al. (eds)]. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.... Qin, Z. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. Averyt et al. (eds)]. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2012. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance...

  3. Impact of climate change on heavy precipitation events of the Mediterranean basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ricard, D.; Beaulant, A.L.; Deque, M.; Ducrocq, V.; Joly, A.; Joly, B.; Martin, E.; Nuissier, O.; Quintana Segui, P.; Ribes, A.; Sevault, F.; Somot, S.; Boe, J.

    2009-01-01

    A second topic covered by the CYPRIM project aims to characterize the evolution of heavy precipitation events in Mediterranean in the context of climate change. To this end, a continuous climate simulation from 1960 to 2099 has been run using a regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model under IPCC A2 emission scenario. Various techniques of down-scaling, down to the very fine 2 km scale, and methods to highlight synoptic environments favourable to heavy rain, have been used to estimate the impact of climate change on precipitation and hydrology over South-East France, both for the whole autumn season and the heavy rain events. (authors)

  4. Report on a survey in fiscal 1999. Survey on movements in technologies related to climate change; 1999 nendo kiko hendo ni kansuru gijutsu doko chosa hokokusho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-03-01

    Working group 3 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is now conducting technological and socio-economical assessments of climate change mitigation measures. The objectives of this research are, in conjunction with the IPCC activities, to perform investigation on the draft of the Third Assessment Report and the related literatures, and survey and study movements in technologies for climate change mitigation measures by performing investigations and researches by using models as required. Chapter 1 generalizes the activities of IPCC since 1988, and describes the preparation schedule for the third assessment report being worked on, as well as the summary movements thereof and the features of the third assessment report. Chapter 2 states the history of the activities. Chapter 3 describes that the third assessment report (draft) being prepared by the Working Group 3 is composed as a whole of the options of implementation, the theoretical background of the implementation, the international institutions, and the evaluation on the implementation. It generalizes the first order draft (FOD). Chapter 4 states the results of investigations on the points of issue which were regarded as the problems in the process of preparing the FOD. Chapter 5 describes the investigations of the FOD, making various important keywords as the axis of the investigations. (NEDO)

  5. Building a global federation system for climate change research: the earth system grid center for enabling technologies (ESG-CET)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ananthakrishnan, R; Bernholdt, D E; Bharathi, S; Brown, D; Chen, M; Chervenak, A L; Cinquini, L; Drach, R; Foster, I T; Fox, P; Fraser, D; Halliday, K; Hankin, S; Jones, P; Kesselman, C; Middleton, D E; Schwidder, J; Schweitzer, R; Schuler, R; Shoshani, A; Siebenlist, F; Sim, A; Strand, W G; Wilhelmi, N; Su, M; Williams, D N

    2007-01-01

    The recent release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report (AR4) has generated significant media attention. Much has been said about the US role in this report, which included significant support from the Department of Energy through the Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) and other Department of Energy (DOE) programs for climate model development and the production execution of simulations. The SciDAC-supported Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET) also played a major role in the IPCC AR4: all of the simulation data that went into the report was made available to climate scientists worldwide exclusively via the ESG-CET At the same time as the IPCC AR4 database was being developed, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), a leading US climate science laboratory and a ESG participant, began publishing model runs from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), and its predecessor the Parallel Coupled Model (PCM) through ESG In aggregate, ESG-CET provides seamless access to over 180 terabytes of distributed climate simulation data to over 6,000 registered users worldwide, who have taken delivery of more than 250 terabytes from the archive. Not only does this represent a substantial advance in scientific knowledge, it is also a major step forward in how we conduct the research process on a global scale. Moving forward, the next IPCC assessment report, AR5, will demand multi-site metadata federation for data discovery and cross-domain identity management for single sign-on of users in a more diverse federation enterprise environment. Towards this aim, ESG is leading the effort in the climate community towards standardization of material for the global federation of metadata, security, and data services required to standardize, analyze, and access data worldwide

  6. Case grows for climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hileman, B.

    1999-08-09

    In the four years since the IPCC stated that 'the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate', evidence for anomalous warming has become more compelling, and as a result scientists have become more concerned that human-induced climate change has already arrived. The article summarises recent extra evidence on global temperatures, carbon dioxide measurements, ice shelf breakup, coral bleaching, unstable climates and improved climate models. At the time of the Kyoto conference, the US became keen on the idea that enhancing forest and soil carbon sequestration was a good way to offset emissions reduction targets. Congress is however under the opinion on that the Kyoto protocol presents a threat to the US economy, and senate is very unlikely to ratify the protocol during the Clinton Administration. The debate as to whether the US government should mandate major emission reduction or wait for more scientific certainty may continue for a number of years, but, growing concern of scientists and the public for the harmful effects of climate change may cause a change. 4 figs., 8 photos.

  7. Estimating climate change effects on net primary production of rangelands in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew C. Reeves; Adam L. Moreno; Karen E. Bagne; Steven W. Running

    2014-01-01

    The potential effects of climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) of U.S. rangelands were evaluated using estimated climate regimes from the A1B, A2 and B2 global change scenarios imposed on the biogeochemical cycling model, Biome-BGC from 2001 to 2100. Temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, day length, solar radiation, CO2 enrichment and nitrogen...

  8. Future extreme water levels and floodplains in Gironde Estuary considering climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laborie, V.; Hissel, F.; Sergent, P.

    2012-04-01

    of floodplains in Gironde Estuary, taking into account IPCC scenario A1B, under the same assumptions, it appears that the impact of the climate change on the quantiles of water levels in floodplains depends on the sea level rise over the period considered ([2010; 2039], [2040; 2069], [2070; 2099]) and that areas which are not flooded today for weak return periods become submerged towards 2100. The neighborhood of Le Verdon undergoes a negative impact only in the medium and long term. For the period [2010; 2039], a small reduction of floodplains can be observed in quantiles of water levels for all return periods. Under those assumptions, in the area of Bordeaux, significant effects would be felt along the road RN230 towards 2100. The effects of the discharges and dike breaching will have to be studied in order to precise these results.

  9. 7th International Seminar on Climate System and Climate Change(ISCS) through the Eyes of a Trainee

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Karen K.Y.Shum

    2010-01-01

    @@ At the invitation of Dr.Dahe Qin,the president of ISCS and the Co-Chair of IPCC WGI,the Hong Kong Observatory has been obliged to participate and benefit from the International Seminar in Beijing,China on 19-30 July 2010.Seminar topics included atmospheric chemistry and climate effects of aerosol biogeochemical cycles,cryosphere and its role in the climate system and climate change,climate models and its application in climate change research,climate change adaptation and mitigation.Data is a common ground for these multi-disciplinary studies around the globe.

  10. Climatic changes, the consequences and strategies for climate protection; Klimaaenderungen, deren Auswirkungen und was fuer den Klimaschutz zu tun ist

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kartschall, Karin; Maeder, Claudia; Tambke, Jens

    2007-11-15

    The report includes a description of observed climate changes, the global climatic change and projections into the future with special respect to Germany. The target of the European Union is to limit the global temperature increase to 2 deg C within 100 years. The requirements for climate protection scenarios to reach this goal and costs of climate protection measures are discussed. The IPCC (Intergovernmental panel on climate change) does not define recommendations for an international distribution of emission reductions but is targeting to fairness between industrial, emerging and developing countries. Germany aims to reduce emission by 40% until 2020.

  11. Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, G.; Shah, M.; Van Velthuizen, H.

    2002-08-01

    After the introduction Chapter 2 presents details of the ecological-economic analysis based on the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zones (AEZ) approach for evaluation of biophysical limitations and agricultural production potentials, and IIASA's Basic Linked System (BLS) for analyzing the world's food economy and trade system. The BLS is a global general equilibrium model system for analyzing agricultural policies and food system prospects in an international setting. BLS views national agricultural systems as embedded in national economies, which interact with each other through trade at the international level. The combination of AEZ and BLS provides an integrated ecological-economic framework for the assessment of the impact of climate change. We consider climate scenarios based on experiments with four General Circulation Models (GCM), and we assess the four basic socioeconomic development pathways and emission scenarios as formulated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Third Assessment Report. Chapter 3 presents the main AEZ results of the impact of climate change on agriculture. Results comprise environmental constraints to crop agriculture; climate variability and the variability of rain-fed cereal production; changes in potential agricultural land; changes in crop-production patterns; and the impact of climate change on cereal-production potential. Chapter 4 discusses the AEZ-BLS integrated ecological-economic analysis of climate change on the world food system. This includes quantification of scale and location of hunger, international agricultural trade, prices, production, land use, etc. It assesses trends in food production, trade, and consumption, and the impact on poverty and hunger of alternative development pathways and varying levels of climate change. Chapter 5 presents the main conclusions and policy implications of this study

  12. Climate change experiments in Hamburg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gubasch, U [DKRZ, Hamburg (Germany)

    1996-12-31

    Nowadays the anthropogenic climate change is been simulated world wide with a fair number of coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (IPCC, 1995). Typical model problems do not only blur the estimates of the anthropogenic climate change, but they also cause errors in the estimates of the natural variability. An accurate representation of the natural variability of the climate system is, however, essential for the detection of the anthropogenic climate change. All model simulations world wide show, even though they differ considerably in their technical details and the experimental setup and the forcing data, similar amplitudes and pattern of the predicted climate change. In the model world it is already at the beginning of the next century possible to detect the anthropogenic climate change in the global mean. If the model results are applied in a `fingerprint analysis`, then it is possible to prove that the climate change during the last 30 years is with a significance of 95 % larger than any other climate change during the last 100 years. The experiments performed in Hamburg show that the experimental conditions are of great importance for the estimate of the future climate. The usual starting point of most of the simulations with present day conditions (1980-1990) is too late, because then a considerable part of the warming since the beginning of the industrialization (ca. 1750) has been neglected. Furthermore it has only recently become clear that the sulphat-aerosols play an important role in the present day climate and in the future climate. The effect of the sulphat aerosols has first been simulated in a number of equilibrium simulations with mixed layer models, but nowadays with globally coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models

  13. Climate change experiments in Hamburg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gubasch, U. [DKRZ, Hamburg (Germany)

    1995-12-31

    Nowadays the anthropogenic climate change is been simulated world wide with a fair number of coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (IPCC, 1995). Typical model problems do not only blur the estimates of the anthropogenic climate change, but they also cause errors in the estimates of the natural variability. An accurate representation of the natural variability of the climate system is, however, essential for the detection of the anthropogenic climate change. All model simulations world wide show, even though they differ considerably in their technical details and the experimental setup and the forcing data, similar amplitudes and pattern of the predicted climate change. In the model world it is already at the beginning of the next century possible to detect the anthropogenic climate change in the global mean. If the model results are applied in a `fingerprint analysis`, then it is possible to prove that the climate change during the last 30 years is with a significance of 95 % larger than any other climate change during the last 100 years. The experiments performed in Hamburg show that the experimental conditions are of great importance for the estimate of the future climate. The usual starting point of most of the simulations with present day conditions (1980-1990) is too late, because then a considerable part of the warming since the beginning of the industrialization (ca. 1750) has been neglected. Furthermore it has only recently become clear that the sulphat-aerosols play an important role in the present day climate and in the future climate. The effect of the sulphat aerosols has first been simulated in a number of equilibrium simulations with mixed layer models, but nowadays with globally coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models

  14. Climate Change: The Physical Basis and Latest Results

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2009-01-01

    The 2007 Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes: "Warming in the climate system is unequivocal." Without the contribution of Physics to climate science over many decades, such a statement would not have been possible. Experimental physics enables us to read climate archives such as polar ice cores and so provides the context for the current changes. For example, today the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, the second most important greenhouse gas, is 28% higher than any time during the last 800,000 years. Classical fluid mechanics and numerical mathematics are the basis of climate models from which estimates of future climate change are obtained. But major instabilities and surprises in the Earth System are still unknown. These are also to be considered when the climatic consequences of proposals for geo-engineering are estimated. Only Physics will permit us to further improve our understanding in order to provide the foundation for policy decisions facing the...

  15. Greenhouse gas emissions considered responsible for climate change: Environmental indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vialetto, G.; Venanzi, M.; Gaudioso, D.

    1993-09-01

    This paper concerns the more significant environmental indicators related to the emissions of radiatively and chemically/photochemically active trace gases. Reference is made to the preliminary work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and to the proposals made in the framework of the international negotiation on climate change. Aiming to contribute to the definition of a national strategy for the reduction of greenhouse gases emissions, this paper proposes a possible application of the indicators. The calculation of the indicators is based on the emission estimate performed by ENEA (Italian National Agency for Energy, New Technologies and the Environment) for the Report on the State of the Environment edited by the Italian Ministry of the Environment. Finally, the paper suggests an application of such indicators for the international negotiation, in the framework of the Italian proposal for the Convention on climate change

  16. Predicting climate change

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    These projections are deduced from separate models which take into account population growth, energy use, economics, technological developments, and so forth. We do not carry out this stage at the Hadley Centre, but we take future scenarios of these emissions from others, particularly IPCC. Having obtained projections ...

  17. A Governing Framework for Climate Change Adaptation in the Built Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel A. Mazmanian

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Developing an approach to governing adaptation to climate change is severely hampered by the dictatorship of the present when the needs of future generations are inadequately represented in current policy making. We posit this problem as a function of the attributes of adaptation policy making, including deep uncertainty and nonstationarity, where past observations are not reliable predictors of future outcomes. Our research links organizational decision-making attributes with adaptation decision making and identifies cases in which adaptation actions cause spillovers, free riding, and distributional impacts. We develop a governing framework for adaptation that we believe will enable policy, planning, and major long-term development decisions to be made appropriately at all levels of government in the face of the deep uncertainty and nonstationarity caused by climate change. Our framework requires that approval of projects with an expected life span of 30 years or more in the built environment include minimum building standards that integrate forecasted climate change impacts from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC intermediate scenario. The intermediate IPCC scenario must be downscaled to include local or regional temperature, water availability, sea level rise, susceptibility to forest fires, and human habitation impacts to minimize climate-change risks to the built environment. The minimum standard is systematically updated every six years to facilitate learning by formal and informal organizations. As a minimum standard, the governance framework allows jurisdictions to take stronger actions to increase their climate resilience and thus maintain system flexibility.

  18. Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Pascale, Salvatore; Lucarini, Valerio; Feng, Xue; Porporato, Amilcare; ul Hasson, Shabeh

    2016-01-01

    In this diagnostic study we analyze changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells by the end of the twenty-first century under the most extreme IPCC5 emission scenario (RCP8.5) as projected by twenty-four coupled climate models contributing to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We use estimates of the centroid of the monthly rainfall distribution as an index of the rainfall timing and a threshold-independent, information theory-based quantity such as relative entropy (RE) to qu...

  19. Using dynamical downscaling to close the gap between global change scenarios and local permafrost dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stendel, Martin; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.; Christensen, Jens H.

    2007-01-01

    Even though we can estimate the zonation of present-day permafrost from deep-soil temperatures obtained from global coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) by accounting for heat conduction in the frozen soil, it is impossible to explicitly resolve soil properties, vegetation......, in particular in mountainous regions. By using global climate change scenarios as driving fields, one can obtain permafrost dynamics in high temporal resolution on the order of years. For the 21st century under the IPCC SRES scenarios A2 and B2, we find an increase of mean annual ground temperature by up to 6 K...

  20. Climate. The earth and its atmosphere in the changing times. 3. upd. ed.

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchal, Christoph; Schoenwiese, Christian-Dietrich

    2016-01-01

    The Climate Change Challenge. Throughout the world, great efforts are being made to better understanding the development of the global climate and to model future trends. What characterizes the weather what the climate? How did the climate history of the Earth? What factors are affecting the climate? In the third, updated edition 2016 of the widespread attractive and scientifically-based four-volume nonfiction series ENERGY, AIR, POWER and MOBILITY which clearly explained basic knowledge of the climate system is expanded to include the latest information about the IPCC and keep up-to-date insight into modern research, especially the REKLIM project of the Helmholtz Association of German research Centres. [de

  1. Basic research on energy conservation in developing countries. Report of the International Conference on Adaptation and Mitigation Technologies for Climate Change; Hatten tojokoku energy shohi koritsuka kiso chosanado jigyo. Kiko hendo ni kansuru tekio kanwa gijutsu kokusai kaigi hokokusho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-03-01

    The International Conference on Adaptation and Mitigation Technologies for Climate Change was held based on the 1st Conference of the Parties in 1995 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the 2nd evaluation report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This report carries the outline of this conference and minutes. Japanese government had studied the framework of activities implemented jointly (AIJ) for emission control of greenhouse gases by voluntary workers jointly with developing countries. The government decided the basis of the AIJ Japan program in 1995, and approved the evaluation guidelines of this program including confirmed and considered matters which are necessary for government offices related to this program to evaluate and approve each project. IPCC approved the 2nd evaluation report in its general meeting in 1995. This conference was thus held to discuss strategic technology and international cooperation with participation of writers of the 2nd IPCC report, policy planners of Asian countries, Japanese industries, governmental offices and NGO.

  2. Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Nicaragua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, T. R.; Townshend, I.; Byrne, J. M.; McDaniel, S. A.

    2013-12-01

    While there is a growing recognition of the impact that climate change may have on human development, there has been a shift in focus from an impacts-led assessment approach towards a vulnerability-led assessment approach. This research operationalizes the IPCC's definition of vulnerability in a sub-national assessment to understand how different factors that shape vulnerability to climate change vary spatially across rural Nicaragua. The research utilizes the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations' (FAO UN) CropWat model to evaluate how the annual yield of two of Nicaragua's staple crops may change under projected changes in temperature and precipitation. This analysis of agricultural sensitivity under exposure to climate change is then overlain with an indicator-based assessment of adaptive capacity in rural Nicaraguan farming households. Adaptive capacity was evaluated using household survey data from the 2001 National Household Survey on Living Standards Measurement, which was provided to us by the FAO UN. The result is a map representing current vulnerability to future climate change, and can serve as a basis for targeting policy interventions in rural Nicaragua.

  3. Seeing the light : adapting to climate change with decentralized renewable energy in developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Venema, H.D.; Cisse, M.

    2004-01-01

    This book presents innovative and sustainable ways to respond to climate change with particular reference to decentralized renewable energy (DRE) projects. It presents the experience of developing DRE projects in five developing countries, Argentina, Bangladesh, Brazil, Senegal and Zimbabwe. The conditions under which these countries can support DRE through the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism were also examined. Some policy recommendations were proposed for more dynamic DRE support for the Kyoto era. The Clean Development Mechanism was examined as a key financial tool for supporting DRE. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that the least developed countries are the least equipped with adaptive capacity, and therefore most vulnerable to climate change. The IPCC claims that climate adaptation and sustainable development can be compatible if policies are made to lessen resource pressure, improve environmental risk management and improve the prosperity of the poorest members of society. This book presents a framework for introducing modern energy services through DRE that can stabilize the socio-economics of a developing country. The main implications of rural energy deprivation include deforestation and ecosystem degradation, chronic rural poverty and high vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change. refs., tabs., figs

  4. Defining climate change scenario characteristics with a phase space of cumulative primary energy and carbon intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritchie, Justin; Dowlatabadi, Hadi

    2018-02-01

    Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing. Scenarios of socio-technical development consistent with end-of-century forcing levels are commonly produced by integrated assessment models. However, outlooks for forcing from fossil energy combustion can also be presented and defined in terms of two essential components: total energy use this century and the carbon intensity of that energy. This formulation allows a phase space diagram to succinctly describe a broad range of possible outcomes for carbon emissions from the future energy system. In the following paper, we demonstrate this phase space method with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The resulting RCP phase space is applied to map IPCC Working Group III (WGIII) reference case ‘no policy’ scenarios. Once these scenarios are described as coordinates in the phase space, data mining techniques can readily distill their core features. Accordingly, we conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the shared outlooks of these scenarios for oil, gas and coal resource use. As a whole, the AR5 database depicts a transition toward re-carbonization, where a world without climate policy inevitably leads to an energy supply with increasing carbon intensity. This orientation runs counter to the experienced ‘dynamics as usual’ of gradual decarbonization, suggesting climate change targets outlined in the Paris Accord are more readily achievable than projected to date.

  5. Climate change and States security: an operational link to develop locally and on the medium term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taithe, Alexandre

    2007-01-01

    The author first notices that climate change and environmental degradations induce new logics in international relationships, and then discusses how consequences of climate change can be factors of instability for States, and how to address them. He recalls and comments the main effects of climate change as they have been described in IPCC reports. He outlines limitations of conventional approaches in terms of direct and indirect impacts on States. Direct effects concern territories (for example, a modification of borders due to sea level rise or to erosion), populations (impact of extreme events on housing, on health) and the economy (more particularly the primary sector and high levels of adaptation costs). The author outlines the limitations of these global models, and proposes additional and corrective approaches: hybrid (regional and global) approaches, local and medium term-based approach (some natural resource management can be assessed and organised only locally). An appendix proposes a contribution of an IPCC work-group in which impacts, adaptation and vulnerabilities of the different regions of the world in front of climate changes are summarized

  6. Climate change: Some elements from the scientific background and the scientific process; Klimafaglig oppdatering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H [Cicero, Oslo (Norway)

    1998-07-01

    The paper reviews the background on mechanisms behind climate variations in the past and man-made climate change and also briefly what is said by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) about the likely future impact of anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases. The IPCC is presented in some detail. The problem of climate change is not important mainly because of increased global average temperature, but because of a potential variability and instability of the global climate and the local weather. In the past, the climate system has fluctuated strongly and rapidly for natural causes. But the stable climate regime observed after the last ice age is currently perturbed by the large outpouring of greenhouse gases from a variety of human activities. Can the stability of the current climate regime withstand this disturbance? The problem of climate change is riddled with uncertainties, and our main challenge to this situation is to find out how to respond in a rational way. 19 refs., 15 figs.

  7. Climate change and biometeorology, the International Society of Biometeorology and its journal: a perspective on the past and a framework for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beggs, Paul John

    2014-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is inherently a biometeorological issue. As such, it would be reasonably expected that the International Society of Biometeorology (ISB) and its journal, International Journal of Biometeorology ( IJB), would have had climate change feature prominently in their activities, articles etc., and to therefore have made a substantial and valuable contribution to the science of the issue. This article presents an analysis of climate change science in ISB and IJB. The analysis focusses on climate-change-related publications by ISB Presidents found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science; contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Working Group II (WGII) by ISB Presidents; and climate change-related publications in IJB found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science. The results demonstrate that the ISB, as represented by its recent, current, and future Presidents, is actively engaged in climate change research and the production of scholarly climate change publications. For example, ISB Presidents have contributed as authors to all four IPCC WGII Assessment Reports, with some Presidents having contributed to more than one Assessment Report or several chapters of the one report. Similarly, it is evident that the IJB is increasingly attracting and publishing climate-change-related articles, with such articles generally having greater impact (as indicated by citations) than other IJB articles. Opportunities for the ISB to provide an internal framework for, and showcase, its climate change work are described. Such opportunities, if enacted, would complement the recent creation of two IJB climate change Field Editor positions.

  8. Tropical cyclones and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andre, J.C.; Royer, J.F.; Chauvin, F.

    2008-01-01

    Results from observations and modelling studies, a number of which having been used to support the conclusions of the IPCC fourth assessment report, are presented. For the past and present-day (since 1970) periods, the increase of strong cyclonic activity over the North Atlantic Ocean appears to be in good correlation with increasing temperature of the ocean surface. For regions where observational data are of lesser quality, the increasing trend is less clear. In fact, assessing long-term changes is made difficult due to both the multi-decennial natural variability and the lesser coverage of observations before satellites were made available. Indirect observational data, such as those derived from quantitative estimations of damage caused by tropical cyclones, suffer from many artefacts and do not allow the resolving of the issue either. For the future, only numerical three-dimensional climate models can be used. They nevertheless run presently with too-large grid-sizes, so that their results are still not converging. Various simulations lead indeed to different results, and it is very often difficult to find the physical reasons for these differences. One concludes by indicating some ways through which numerical simulations could be improved, leading to a decrease of uncertainties affecting the prediction of cyclonic activity over the next decades. (authors)

  9. Improving the reliability of fishery predictions under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith

    2015-01-01

    The increasing number of publications assessing impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and fisheries attests to rising scientific and public interest. A selection of recent papers, dealing more with biological than social and economic aspects, is reviewed here, with particular attention...... to the reliability of projections of climate impacts on future fishery yields. The 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report expresses high confidence in projections that mid- and high-latitude fish catch potential will increase by 2050 and medium confidence that low-latitude catch potential...... understanding of climate impacts, such as how to improve coupled models from physics to fish and how to strengthen confidence in analysis of time series...

  10. Our response to climate change requires nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kemeny, L.

    2007-01-01

    Australian politicians and environmental activists who reject nuclear power as the pivotal technology to combat climate change stand compromised before the court of international scientific opinion and informed global realism. The content of their rhetoric on nuclear matters comprises pseudo-science, innuendo and ideological prejudice communicated through the politics of fear and risk. The recent report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) calls for urgent major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, without which the natural feedback mechanisms that control global temperatures might be overwhelmed. It points out that presently human activity produces around 23.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per annum, about one half of which can be absorbed by soil and ocean. However this capacity is being rapidly destroyed by rising soil and ocean surface temperatures. The report points out that if global warming cannot be kept between manageable limits, it could lead to the destruction of the Great Barrier Reef and the Amazon rainforest, and lead to the forced migration of hundreds of millions of people from equatorial regions and the loss of vast tracts of land as ice caps melt and sea levels rise. For many scientists and engineers concerned with energy and environmental issues it is a matter of deep regret that, the IPCC meetings at Kyoto and Paris have not explicitly endorsed the central role, which could be played by nuclear energy in combating greenhouse gas production and climate change. The environmental benefits from switching to nuclear fuels are striking. The IPCC delegates attending Kyoto in 1997 must have known that light and air-conditioning for the modern International Convention Centre were obtained from an electricity grid supplied partly from a network of 54 nuclear power stations. The greenhouse gas emissions saved by the use of this network and the uranium fuel cycle is around 287 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per

  11. Vulnerability of United States Bridges to Potential Increases in Flooding from Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study assesses the potential impacts of increased river flooding from climate change on bridges in the continental United States. Daily precipitation statistics from four climate models and three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) are used to capture ...

  12. Sensitivity of Climate Change Detection and Attribution to the Characterization of Internal Climate Variability

    KAUST Repository

    Imbers, Jara

    2014-05-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\\'s (IPCC) "very likely" statement that anthropogenic emissions are affecting climate is based on a statistical detection and attribution methodology that strongly depends on the characterization of internal climate variability. In this paper, the authors test the robustness of this statement in the case of global mean surface air temperature, under different representations of such variability. The contributions of the different natural and anthropogenic forcings to the global mean surface air temperature response are computed using a box diffusion model. Representations of internal climate variability are explored using simple stochastic models that nevertheless span a representative range of plausible temporal autocorrelation structures, including the short-memory first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] process and the long-memory fractionally differencing process. The authors find that, independently of the representation chosen, the greenhouse gas signal remains statistically significant under the detection model employed in this paper. The results support the robustness of the IPCC detection and attribution statement for global mean temperature change under different characterizations of internal variability, but they also suggest that a wider variety of robustness tests, other than simple comparisons of residual variance, should be performed when dealing with other climate variables and/or different spatial scales. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.

  13. Integrating sustainable development into the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Najam, Adil; Rahman, Atiq A.; Huq, Saleemul; Sokona, Youba

    2003-01-01

    This paper reviews how sustainable development was treated in prior assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and presents proposals on how it might be integrated into the forthcoming Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). There has been a steady, but slow, increase in the exposure and treatment of sustainable development in each subsequent IPCC assessment. However, much more remains to be done if the mandate provided in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is to be met. The paper argues that the AR4 can take three practical steps in making the integration more complete. First, at the conceptual level, equity concerns should be made a more pervasive, even central, focus of the AR4. Second, at the analytical level, the examination of alternative development pathways begun during the TAR process needs to be continued and expanded. Third, at the operational level, the AR4 should deal with sustainable development in all its chapters rather than relegating it to a peripheral few, should broaden the base of expertise reflected in its panels of authors and reviewers, and should commission a companion special report on climate change and sustainable development

  14. Exploring the Multifaceted Topic of Climate Change in Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.

    2015-12-01

    As the effects of climate change become more profound, climate literacy becomes increasingly important. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) responds to this need through the publication of Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate. Both publications incorporate the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the USGCRP's Third National Climate Assessment. Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive, multidisciplinary information related to various topics. Additionally, each chapter closes with a For Further Exploration essay, which addresses specific topics that complement a chapter concept. Web Resources, which encourage additional exploration of chapter content, and Scientific Literature, from which chapter content was derived can also be found at the conclusion of each chapter. Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics, including the scientific principles that govern Earth's climate system and basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate the system. Released in fall 2015, Living With Our Changing Climate takes a more narrow approach and investigates human and ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change, the role of energy choices in affecting climate, actions humans can take through adaption, mitigation, and policy to lessen vulnerabilities, and psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial. While Living With Our Changing Climate is intended for programs looking to add a climate element into their curriculum, Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course. In a 2015 survey of California University of Pennsylvania undergraduate students using Our Changing Climate, 82% found it comfortable to read and utilized its interactive components and resources. Both ebooks illuminate the multidisciplinary aspect of climate change, providing the opportunity for a more sustainable future.

  15. Attribution of projected changes in summertime US ozone and PM2.5 concentrations to global changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Guenther

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The impact that changes in future climate, anthropogenic US emissions, background tropospheric composition, and land-use have on summertime regional US ozone and PM2.5 concentrations is examined through a matrix of downscaled regional air quality simulations, where each set of simulations was conducted for five months of July climatology, using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ model. Projected regional scale changes in meteorology due to climate change under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC A2 scenario are derived through the downscaling of Parallel Climate Model (PCM output with the MM5 meteorological model. Future chemical boundary conditions are obtained through downscaling of MOZART-2 (Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 2.4 global chemical model simulations based on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES A2 emissions scenario. Projected changes in US anthropogenic emissions are estimated using the EPA Economic Growth Analysis System (EGAS, and changes in land-use are projected using data from the Community Land Model (CLM and the Spatially Explicit Regional Growth Model (SERGOM. For July conditions, changes in chemical boundary conditions are found to have the largest impact (+5 ppbv on average daily maximum 8-h (DM8H ozone. Changes in US anthropogenic emissions are projected to increase average DM8H ozone by +3 ppbv. Land-use changes are projected to have a significant influence on regional air quality due to the impact these changes have on biogenic hydrocarbon emissions. When climate changes and land-use changes are considered simultaneously, the average DM8H ozone decreases due to a reduction in biogenic VOC emissions (−2.6 ppbv. Changes in average 24-h (A24-h PM2.5 concentrations are dominated by projected changes in anthropogenic emissions (+3 μg m−3, while changes in chemical boundary conditions have a negligible effect. On average, climate change reduces A24-h PM2

  16. The Atlas of Climate Change. Based on SEAP-CMIP5. Super-ensemble projection and attribution (SEAP) of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dong, Wenjie; Guo, Yan [Beijing Normal Univ. (China). Normal Univ. College of Global Change and Earth System Science; Ren, Fumin [China Meterological Administration, Beijing (China). National Climate Center; Huang, Jianbin [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China). Center for Earth System Science

    2013-02-01

    Outputs from the latest generation of earth system model from world class model development groups for IPCC AR5. Describes quantitatively state historical responsibility for global warming. Demonstrates how the Earth's climate system will change from today up to 2100. Describes how much climate change we may avoid if we take action according to Cancun Pledge ''The Atlas of Climate Change-Based on SEAP-CMIP5'' is intended to satisfy readers' curiosity: how will our climate system change over the next 100 years? It is the first showcase for the state-of -the-art earth system models that released their CMIP5 simulations for the IPCC AR5.The atlas focuses on both the past climate system change from 1850 and the projection of the future climate system change to 2100 using the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios based on climate models. This provides the research and application community interested in the impact of climate change on fields such as agriculture, ecosystem, environment,water resources, energy, health, economy, risk governance and international negotiation, etc. with the newest climate change projection information. Additionally, the atlas will show the historical responsibility of the developed/developing countries and possible contributions to the mitigation of climate change according to their pledge of GHG emission reduction after the Cancun Agreement as an extension numerical experiment to CMIP5 with NCAR's CESM1.0. The authors will update this atlas after future releases of CMIP5 model outputs and update the figures in the second edition of the atlas in 2012-2013.

  17. Mediterranean climate change and Indian Ocean warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoerling, M.; Eischeid, J.; Hurrel, J.

    2006-01-01

    General circulation model (GCM) responses to 20. century changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and greenhouse gases are diagnosed, with emphasis on their relationship to observed regional climate change over the Mediterranean region. A major question is whether the Mediterranean region's drying trend since 1950 can be understood as a consequence of the warming trend in tropical SSTs. We focus on the impact of Indian Ocean warming, which is itself the likely result of increasing greenhouse gases. It is discovered that a strong projection onto the positive polarity of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index characterizes the atmospheric response structure to the 1950-1999 warming of Indian Ocean SSTs. This influence appears to be robust in so far as it is reproduced in ensembles of experiments using three different GCMs. Both the equilibrium and transient responses to Indian Ocean warming are examined. Under each scenario, the latitude of prevailing mid latitude westerlies shifts poleward during the November-April period. The consequence is a drying of the Mediterranean region, whereas northern Europe and Scandinavia receive increased precipitation in concert with the poleward shift of storminess. The IPCC (TAR) 20. century coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations forced by observed greenhouse gas changes also yield a post-1950 drying trend over the Mediterranean. We argue that this feature of human-induced regional climate change is the outcome of a dynamical feedback, one involving Indian Ocean warming and a requisite adjustment of atmospheric circulation systems to such ocean warming

  18. A coherent set of future land use change scenarios for Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Reginster, I.; Araújo, Miguel B.

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents a range of future, spatially explicit, land use change scenarios for the EU15, Norway and Switzerland based on an interpretation of the global storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that are presented in the special report on emissions scenarios (SRES......). The methodology is based on a qualitative interpretation of the SRES storylines for the European region, an estimation of the aggregate totals of land use change using various land use change models and the allocation of these aggregate quantities in space using spatially explicit rules. The spatial patterns...... are further downscaled from a resolution of 10 min to 250 m using statistical downscaling procedures. The scenarios include the major land use/land cover classes urban, cropland, grassland and forest land as well as introducing new land use classes such as bioenergy crops. The scenario changes are most...

  19. Analysis of Changes in the Lorenz Energy Budget of the Atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, T. D.

    2009-12-01

    Several recent papers have addressed the topic of changes in global precipitation rates related to changes in Earth's global energy balance. Less studied are the processes that may be governing the large-scale regional distribution of precipitation around the globe. This study uses the energy budget partition paradigm first put forth by Lorenz (1955) and follows the methodology of Arpé et al. (1986) and Oriol (1982) to identify latitude bands where the partition of energy amongst zonal and eddy kinetic and potential energy bins may account for the spatial patterns of precipitation change predicted by many IPCC AR4 models. In doing so, this study may help to identify whether or not the climate change predicted by these models is indeed creating enhanced baroclinic storms in the mid-latitudes or if there are other mechanisms at work producing the patterns of precipitation change.

  20. Uncertainty in water resources availability in the Okavango River basin as a result of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. A. Hughes

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses the hydrological response to scenarios of climate change in the Okavango River catchment in Southern Africa. Climate scenarios are constructed representing different changes in global mean temperature from an ensemble of 7 climate models assessed in the IPCC AR4. The results show a substantial change in mean flow associated with a global warming of 2 °C. However, there is considerable uncertainty in the sign and magnitude of the projected changes between different climate models, implying that the ensemble mean is not an appropriate generalised indicator of impact. The uncertainty in response between different climate model patterns is considerably greater than the range due to uncertainty in hydrological model parameterisation. There is also a clear need to evaluate the physical mechanisms associated with the model projected changes in this region. The implications for water resource management policy are considered.

  1. Response of net ecosystem CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration of boreal forest ecosystems to projected future climate changes: results of a modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olchev, Alexander; Kurbatova, Julia

    2014-05-01

    It is presented the modeling results describing the possible response of net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE), gross (GPP) and net (NPP) primary production, as well as evapotranspiration (ET) of spruce forest ecosystems situated at central part of European part of Russia at the southern boundary of boreal forest community to projected future changes of climatic conditions and forest species composition. A process-based MixFor-SVAT model (Olchev et al 2002, 2008, 2009) has been used to describe the CO2 and H2O fluxes under present and projected future climate conditions. The main advantage of MixFor-SVAT is its ability not only to describe seasonal and daily dynamics of total CO2 and H2O fluxes at an ecosystem level, but also to adequately estimate the contributions of soil, forest understorey, and various tree species in overstorey into total ecosystem fluxes taking into account their individual responses to changes in environmental conditions as well as the differences in structure and biophysical properties. Results of modeling experiments showed that projected changes of climate conditions (moderate scenario A1B IPCC) and forest species composition at the end of 21 century can lead to small increase of annual evapotranspiration as well as to growth of NEE, GPP and NPP of the forests in case if the projected increase in temperature and elevated CO2 in the atmosphere in future will be strictly balanced with growth of available nutrients and water in plant and soil. It is obvious that any deficit of e.g. nitrogen in leaves (due to reduced transpiration, nitrogen availability in soil, etc.) may lead to decreases in the photosynthesis and respiration rates of trees and, as a consequence, to decreases in the GPP and NEE of entire forest ecosystem. Conducted modeling experiments have demonstrated that a 20% reduction of available nitrogen in tree leaves in a monospesific spruce forest stand may result in a 14% decrease in NEE, a 8% decrease in NPP, and a 4% decrease in

  2. Long-term effects of climate change on the hydrological system of a lowland area at the German North Sea coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graeff, Thomas; Baroni, Gabriele; Krause, Stefan

    2014-05-01

    Coastal areas are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In particular for the winter season, global sea level rise is expected to be combined with increased precipitation and higher storm surge frequency. During summer, due to the increase of temperature, enhanced evapotranspiration with an increase of groundwater intrusion has been observed. It is expected that the salinization of the surface will rise under drier conditions by upward seeping groundwater. Coastal water resource management requires a better understanding and predictions of these dynamic systems. Therefore, a long-term monitoring programme has been established at the German North Sea coast, located at the estuary of the River Ems. The research area is dominated by a dense canal system that is regulated by pumping stations and tidal gates. Landuse of the area is mainly dairy farming with 30 % of the area below sea level. The underlying aquifer is confined and brackish, and it is connected to the surface water by geological faults of old paleo-channels. Observations in those areas indicate a high salinity with concentrations peaking during the summer period. This study investigates the effects of climate change on water balance and salt transport by applying regional climate models (RCMs) based on the IPCC emission scenarios for the period until 2100 as drivers for a hydrological and solute transport model. To investigate the impact of different meteorological scenarios, the RCM results for the climate scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 are used to cover an increase of future temperature between 1 and 3.5 K. As changes in water level and salinity are expected to influence vegetation patterns (and water management aims to guaranty agricultural use) two alternative landuse scenarios are considered. The first scenario assumes that the technological level of the management will be adapted to rainfall and sea level but without additional drainage from the hinterland to reduce salt water concentration

  3. Assessing climate change over the Marche Region (central Italy) from 1951 to 2050: toward an integrated strategy for climate impacts reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sangelantoni, Lorenzo; Russo, Aniello; Marincioni, Fausto; Appiotti, Federica

    2013-04-01

    This study investigates consequences and future impacts of climate change on the social and natural systems of the Marche Region (one of the 20 administrative divisions of Italy). This Region, is located in central part of the peninsula and borders the Adriatic Sea on the East and the Apennine mountains on the West. The Region extends for about 60 km E-W, and has a NW-SE coastline of about 170 km, covering a total area of 9366 km2. Multimodel projections over the Marche Regions, on daily, monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation parameters, have been extracted from the outputs of a set of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) over Europe run by several research institutes participating to the EU ENSEMBLE project. These climate simulations refer to the boundary conditions of the IPCC A1B emission scenario, and have a horizontal resolution of 25km × 25km covering a time period from 1951 to 2050. Results detail a significant increase of daily, monthly and seasonal mean temperatures, especially in summer, with anomaly values reaching +3°C after the year 2025, referring to the model CliNo 1981-2010. Mountain areas show higher values of temperature anomalies than coastal ones of approximately 0.5 °C. Concurrently, a widespread decrease of seasonal precipitation appears to affect all seasons, except for autumn. Rainfall decrease and temperature increase could reduce the Region's aquifer recharge and overall availability of hydro resources. These alterations could affect human health, agricultural productivity, forest fires, coastal erosion, algal blooms and water quality. Ongoing analysis of extreme climatological indices (e.g. frequency of maximum daily temperature exceeding comfort thresholds) are expected to quantify such impacts. A first analysis, linking climate change to the hydrologic cycle, studied through the computation of the hydro-climatic intensity index (as defined by Giorgi et al., 2012), suggests for the Marche Region an increase of the intensity of

  4. Climate change and critical thresholds in China's food security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiong, Wei; Lin, Erda; Ju, Hui; Xu, Yinlong

    2007-01-01

    Identification of 'critical thresholds' of temperature increase is an essential task for inform policy decisions on establishing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. We use the A2 (medium-high GHG emission pathway) and B2 (medium-low) climate change scenarios produced by the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, the crop model - CERES, and socio-economic scenarios described by IPCC SRES, to simulate the average yield changes per hectare of three main grain crops (rice, wheat, and maize) at 50 km x 50 km scale. The threshold of food production to temperature increases was analyzed based on the relationship between yield changes and temperature rise, and then food security was discussed corresponding to each IPCC SRES scenario. The results show that without the CO2 fertilization effect in the analysis, the yield per hectare for the three crops would fall consistently as temperature rises beyond 2.5C; when the CO2 fertilization effect was included in the simulation, there were no adverse impacts on China's food production under the projected range of temperature rise (0.9-3.9C). A critical threshold of temperature increase was not found for food production. When the socio-economic scenarios, agricultural technology development and international trade were incorporated in the analysis, China's internal food production would meet a critical threshold of basic demand (300 kg/capita) while it would not under A2 (no CO2 fertilization); whereas basic food demand would be satisfied under both A2 and B2, and would even meet a higher food demand threshold required to sustain economic growth (400 kg/capita) under B2, when CO2 fertilization was considered

  5. Adaption strategies to the effect of climate change on a coastal area in Northwest Germany with different land management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graeff, Thomas; Krause, Stefan; Maier, Martin; Oswald, Sascha

    2015-04-01

    used as a third landuse scenario. A hydrological model that couples surface water and groundwater interactions is used. Several climate scenarios based on the IPCC emission scenarios are applied (A1B, A2 and B1 are used to cover an increase of future temperature between 1 and 3.5 K) in combination with three different heights of sea water level increase. Furthermore, the effectivity of the scenarios in respect to ecosystem services and economic efficiency are calculated. The business as usual scenario is able to guaranty the current farming strategy by coastal defences and prevention of inundation, but the cost intensive pumping rates increase. Areas with subsurface preferential pathways for groundwater to the land surface have the potential to be affected by salinization of groundwater, soil and drainages, without coastal defences to be able to prevent that. The large polder systems are able to buffer the increasing precipitation volumes to the price of losing 20 percent of the agriculture area and locally the creation of a completely different landscape. The polders are used effectively to store freshwater in summer periods and can actually also be used to prevent salinization. The stakeholder scenario with small distributed polders have a comparable effect with the benefit of preserving the original landscape and higher acceptance by the local residents, but with higher cost for more elaborate water resources management and maintenance.

  6. 2007 status of climate change: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Summary for Policy-makers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barker, T.; Bashmakov, I.; Bernstein, L.; Bogner, J.; Bosch, P.; Dave, R.; Davidson, O.; Fisher, B.; Grubb, M.; Gupta, S.; Halsnaes, K.; Heij, B.; Kahn Ribeiro, S.; Kobayashi, S.; Levine, M.; Martino, D.; Masera Cerutti, O.; Metz, B.; Meyer, L.; Nabuurs, G.J.; Najam, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Holger Rogner, H.; Roy, J.; Sathaye, J.; Schock, R.; Shukla, P.; Sims, R.; Smith, P.; Swart, R.; Tirpak, D.; Urge-Vorsatz, D.; Dadi, Z.

    2007-01-01

    The Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focuses on new literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects of mitigation of climate change, published since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) and the Special Reports on CO 2 Capture and Storage (SRCCS) and on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (SROC).The main aim of this summary report is to assess options for mitigating climate change. Several aspects link climate change with development issues. This report explores these links in detail, and illustrates where climate change and sustainable development are mutually reinforcing. Economic development needs, resource endowments and mitigative and adaptive capacities differ across regions. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to the climate change problem, and solutions need to be regionally differentiated to reflect different socio-economic conditions and, to a lesser extent, geographical differences. Although this report has a global focus, an attempt is made to differentiate the assessment of scientific and technical findings for the various regions. Given that mitigation options vary significantly between economic sectors, it was decided to use the economic sectors to organize the material on short- to medium-term mitigation options. Contrary to what was done in the Third Assessment Report, all relevant aspects of sectoral mitigation options, such as technology, cost, policies etc., are discussed together, to provide the user with a comprehensive discussion of the sectoral mitigation options. The report is organised into six sections after the introduction: - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends; - Mitigation in the short and medium term, across different economic sectors (until 2030); - Mitigation in the long-term (beyond 2030); - Policies, measures and instruments to mitigate climate change; - Sustainable development and climate change mitigation; - Gaps in

  7. Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Neofotis, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Human-influenced climate change is an observed phenomenon affecting physical and biological systems across the globe. The majority of observed impacts are related to temperature changes and are located in the northern high- and midlatitudes. However, new evidence is emerging that demonstrates that impacts are related to precipitation changes as well as temperature, and that climate change is impacting systems and sectors beyond the Northern Hemisphere. In this paper, we highlight some of this new evidence-focusing on regions and sectors that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) noted as under-represented-in the context of observed climate change impacts, direct and indirect drivers of change (including carbon dioxide itself), and methods of detection. We also present methods and studies attributing observed impacts to anthropogenic forcing. We argue that the expansion of methods of detection (in terms of a broader array of climate variables and data sources, inclusion of the major modes of climate variability, and incorporation of other drivers of change) is key to discerning the climate sensitivities of sectors and systems in regions where the impacts of climate change currently remain elusive. Attributing such changes to human forcing of the climate system, where possible, is important for development of effective mitigation and adaptation. Current challenges in documenting adaptation and the role of indigenous knowledge in detection and attribution are described.

  8. Impact of climate change on heavy precipitation events of the Mediterranean basin; Impact du changement climatique sur les evenements de pluie intense du bassin mediterraneen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ricard, D.; Beaulant, A.L.; Deque, M.; Ducrocq, V.; Joly, A.; Joly, B.; Martin, E.; Nuissier, O.; Quintana Segui, P.; Ribes, A.; Sevault, F.; Somot, S. [Meteo-France et CNRS, Groupe d' Etude de l' Atmosphere Meteorologique (GAME), 31 - Toulouse (France); Boe, J. [California Univ., Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    2009-11-15

    A second topic covered by the CYPRIM project aims to characterize the evolution of heavy precipitation events in Mediterranean in the context of climate change. To this end, a continuous climate simulation from 1960 to 2099 has been run using a regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model under IPCC A2 emission scenario. Various techniques of down-scaling, down to the very fine 2 km scale, and methods to highlight synoptic environments favourable to heavy rain, have been used to estimate the impact of climate change on precipitation and hydrology over South-East France, both for the whole autumn season and the heavy rain events. (authors)

  9. Sensitivity of Climate Change Detection and Attribution to the Characterization of Internal Climate Variability

    KAUST Repository

    Imbers, Jara; Lopez, Ana; Huntingford, Chris; Allen, Myles

    2014-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) "very likely" statement that anthropogenic emissions are affecting climate is based on a statistical detection and attribution methodology that strongly depends on the characterization of internal climate variability. In this paper, the authors test the robustness of this statement in the case of global mean surface air temperature, under different representations of such variability. The contributions of the different natural and anthropogenic forcings to the global mean surface air temperature response are computed using a box diffusion model. Representations of internal climate variability are explored using simple stochastic models that nevertheless span a representative range of plausible temporal autocorrelation structures, including the short-memory first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] process and the long-memory fractionally differencing process. The authors find that, independently of the representation chosen, the greenhouse gas signal remains statistically significant under the detection model employed in this paper. The results support the robustness of the IPCC detection and attribution statement for global mean temperature change under different characterizations of internal variability, but they also suggest that a wider variety of robustness tests, other than simple comparisons of residual variance, should be performed when dealing with other climate variables and/or different spatial scales. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.

  10. China's response to climate change issues after Paris Climate Change Conference

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAO Yun

    2016-01-01

    The Paris Climate Change Conference was successfully concluded with the Paris Agreement, which is a milestone for the world in collectively combating climate change. By participating in IPCC assessments and conducting national climate change assessments, China has been increasing its understanding of the issue. For the first time, China's top leader attended the Conference of the Parties, which indicates the acknowledgement of the rationality and necessity of climate change response by China at different levels. Moreover, this participation reflects China's commitment to including climate change in its ecology improvement program and pursuing a low-carbon society and economy. In order to ensure the success of the Paris Conference, China has contributed significantly. China's constructive participation in global governance shows that China is a responsible power. These principles such as the creation of a future of winewin cooperation with each country contributing to the best of its ability;a future of the rule of law, fairness, and justice;and a future of inclusiveness, mutual learning, and common development will serve as China's guidelines in its efforts to facilitate the implementation of the Paris Agreement and participate in the design of international systems.

  11. China's response to climate change issues after Paris Climate Change Conference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun Gao

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The Paris Climate Change Conference was successfully concluded with the Paris Agreement, which is a milestone for the world in collectively combating climate change. By participating in IPCC assessments and conducting national climate change assessments, China has been increasing its understanding of the issue. For the first time, China's top leader attended the Conference of the Parties, which indicates the acknowledgement of the rationality and necessity of climate change response by China at different levels. Moreover, this participation reflects China's commitment to including climate change in its ecology improvement program and pursuing a low-carbon society and economy. In order to ensure the success of the Paris Conference, China has contributed significantly. China's constructive participation in global governance shows that China is a responsible power. These principles such as the creation of a future of win–win cooperation with each country contributing to the best of its ability; a future of the rule of law, fairness, and justice; and a future of inclusiveness, mutual learning, and common development will serve as China's guidelines in its efforts to facilitate the implementation of the Paris Agreement and participate in the design of international systems.

  12. Impact of global warming on ENSO phase change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Cabos Narvaez

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available We compare the physical mechanisms involved in the generation and decay of ENSO events in a control (present day conditions and Scenario (Is92a, IPCC 1996 simulations performed with the coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM ECHAM4-OPYC3. A clustering technique which objectively discriminates common features in the evolution of the Tropical Pacific Heat Content anomalies leading to the peak of ENSO events allows us to group into a few classes the ENSO events occurring in 240 years of data in the control and scenario runs. In both simulations, the composites of the groups show differences in the generation and development of ENSO. We present the changes in the statistics of the groups and explore the possible mechanisms involved.

  13. Climate Change and the Greenhouse Effect - Nature and Humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alevizos, Anastasios; Zygouras, Grigorios

    2014-05-01

    In this project twenty A grade students of Lyceum (age 16) were involved (2011-12) and had been learning to give answers to questions about greenhouse gases, their origin and the processes forming them with regard to human activity on our planet and our dependence on fossil fuels. They had considered whether and how this dependence affects global warming, how this dependence can be reduced by changing attitudes and using renewable energy sources and further more they had put questions and doubts about anthropogenic global warming existence. The student dialogues during a '' TV series debate '' concerning the views, questions and answers of three groups, the ''IPCCs'', the ''CLIMATE SCEPTICS'' and the '' REALISTS'' are exposed on a poster.

  14. How are cities combating climate change?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paugam, Anne; Giraud, Gael; Thauvin, Eric

    2015-11-01

    Cities are often blamed for being the main emitters of greenhouse gases (up to 75% of CO_2 emissions are attributed to cities [IPCC, Climate Change Synthesis Report 2014]) due to the energy consumption tied to the activities they host: transport, industry, etc. But they are also the first to suffer from climate change: extreme climate events have more drastic outcomes in highly populated areas and the harmful effects of polluting activities are felt more strongly. Aware of the role that they can play, cities have been organising themselves into networks since the 1990's (C40, Cities Climate Leadership Group, ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability, etc.) to share their experiences and reinforce their actions. Their commitment now singles them out as leading players: for example, London has announced an 80% reduction in its emissions by 2050, which is one of the most ambitious objectives targeted at local authority level or even national level. A comparative study conducted in five cities of the Global North and South (Agadir, Da Nang, Lima, London, Nantes) aimed at understanding their commitment to action on climate change. Why have they made this a priority? What concrete actions have been launched? What challenges are they facing?

  15. Adaptation to climate change and industrial vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garnaud, Benjamin; Ferret, Celine

    2010-06-01

    In today's societies, the production base made up by the industrial fabric acts as an important link between the climate and its variations and our lifestyle. However, several decades of experience have often enabled us to minimise the impact of the weather and its fluctuations on activities, making the industrial sector out to be purely artificial and protected from climate impacts. Yet climate change leads us to challenge this assumption: if the industrial base is supposed to be impervious to the current climate, is this still the case in a context of climate change? In an attempt to answer this question, the Invulnerable project was launched, led by the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI) and bringing together scientific and industrial partners (Meteo-France, IPSL, CERFACS). Observing the availability of scientific resources on climate change, partly resulting from the modeling research coordinated by the IPCC, the idea was to work with industries to identify their vulnerabilities and to use these to define indicators for climatologists. These indicators are not chosen by scientists without consulting industries, but are in fact defined by these industries to ensure they correspond to their needs as closely as possible. The challenge is therefore to bring together scientists and industries and to catalyse a mutual understanding to ensure this discussion results in one or several indicators that are relevant to the activity in question and on which climatologists can work

  16. Updating the results of glacier contribution to the sea level change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyurgerov, Mark B.; Abdalati, Waleed Dr. (Technical Monitor)

    2005-01-01

    I have completed an update of global glacier volume change. All data of glacier annual mass balances, surface area over the period 1945/46 till 2004, outside the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets were included in this update. As the result global glacier volume change have been calculated, also in terms of glacier contribution to sea level change. These results were sent to Working Group 1 and 2 of IPCC-4 as the basis for modeling of sea level towards the end of 2100. In this study I have concentrated on studying glacier systems of different scales, from primary (e.g. Devon ice cap) to regional (e.g. Canadian Arctic), continental scale (e,g., entire Arctic), and global (e.g., change in glacier volume and contribution to sea level rise).

  17. Particulate Matter and Health Risk under a Changing Climate: Assessment for Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Dias

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The potential impacts of climate-induced changes in air pollution levels and its impacts on population health were investigated. The IPCC scenario (SRES A2 was used to analyse the effects of climate on future PM10 concentrations over Portugal and their impact on short-term population exposure and mortality. The air quality modelling system has been applied with high spatial resolution looking on climate changes at regional scale. To quantify health impacts related to air pollution changes, the WHO methodology for health impact assessment was implemented. The results point to 8% increase of premature mortality attributed to future PM10 levels in Portugal. The pollution episodes with daily average PM10 concentration above the current legislated value (50 μg·m−3 would be responsible for 81% of attributable cases. The absolute number of deaths attributable to PM10 under future climate emphasizes the importance of indirect effects of climate change on human health.

  18. Assessing climate change impacts on wheat production (a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Valizadeh

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is one of the major challenges facing humanity in the future and effect of climate change has been detrimental to agricultural industry. The aim of this study was to simulate the effects of climate change on the maturity period, leaf area index (LAI, biomass and grain yield of wheat under future climate change for the Sistan and Baluchestan region in Iran. For this purpose, two general circulation models HadCM3 and IPCM4 under three scenarios A1B, B1 and A2 in three time periods 2020, 2050 and 2080 were used. LARS-WG model was used for simulating climatic parameters for each period and CERES-Wheat model was used to simulate wheat growth. The results of model evaluation showed that LARS-WG had appropriate prediction for climatic parameters and simulation of stochastic growing season in future climate change conditions for the studied region. Wheat growing season period in all scenarios of climate change was reduced compared to the current situation. Possible reasons were the increase in temperature rate and the accelerated growth stages of wheat. This reduction in B1 scenario was less than A1B and A2 scenarios. Maximum wheat LAI in all scenarios, except scenario A1B in 2050, is decreased compared to the current situation. Yield and biological yield of wheat in both general circulation models under all scenarios and all times were reduced in comparison with current conditions and the lowest reduction was related to B1 scenario. In general, the results showed that wheat production in the future will be affected by climate change and will decrease in the studied region. To reduce these risks, the impact of climate change mitigation strategies and management systems for crop adaptation to climate change conditions should be considered.

  19. Assessment of long-term effects of climate change on biodiversity and vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oene, H.; Berendse, F.; De Kovel, C.G.F. [Nature Consevation and Plant Ecology Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen (Netherlands); Alkemade, J.R.M.; Bakkenes, M.; Ihle, F. [National Institute of Public Health and the Environment RIVM, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1999-07-01

    The aim of this project was to analyze the effects of climatic change on plant species diversity and ecosystem functioning. The direct effects of climatic change on plant species diversity are analyzed using a species based probabilistic Model (EUROMOVE) that relates the probability of occurrence of ca 1400 European plant species to climatic variables as the mean temperature of the coldest month, the effective temperature sum, the annual precipitation, the annual potential and actual evapotranspiration, the length of the growing season, and the mean growing season temperature. The indirect effects of raised C0{sub 2} levels and increased temperatures on ecosystem functioning and the consequences of these indirect effects for plant diversity are analyzed by combining a mechanistic simulation model (NUCOM) with regression models. NUCOM predicts the effects of environmental changes on dominant plant species composition and ecosystem variables. The predicted ecosystem variables are linked to plant species diversity of subordinate species by regression models, using Ellenberg indices for N availability, soil acidity, soil moisture, and light intensity. With these two approaches, the consequences of climatic change scenarios (IPCC Baseline A, IPCC Stabilization 450) and N deposition scenarios (reduced, constant) are analyzed for Europe (EUROMOVE) and part of the Netherlands (NUCOM). The results showed that the direct effects of climatic change may have large impact on plant species diversity and distribution. The indirect effects of climatic change on plant diversity appeared minor but effects of changes in soil moisture are not included. Other environmental changes like eutrofication and human impact have large effect on ecosystem variables and plant species diversity. Reductions in nitrogen emission have a positive effect but take time to become apparent. 49 refs.

  20. Changes in continental Europe water cycle in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouholahnejad, Elham; Schirmer, Mario; Abbaspour, Karim

    2015-04-01

    Changes in atmospheric water vapor content provide strong evidence that the water cycle is already responding to a warming climate. According to IPCC's last report on Climate Change (AR5), the water cycle is expected to intensify in a warmer climate as the atmosphere can hold more water vapor. This changes the frequency of precipitation extremes, increases evaporation and dry periods, and effects the water redistribution in land. This process is represented by most global climate models (GCMs) by increased summer dryness and winter wetness over large areas of continental mid to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, associated with a reduction in water availability at continental scale. Observing changes in precipitation and evaporation directly and at continental scale is difficult, because most of the exchange of fresh water between the atmosphere and the surface happens the oceans. Long term precipitation records are available only from over the land and there are no measurement of evaporation or redistribution of precipitation over the land area. On the other hand, understanding the extent of climate change effects on various components of the water cycle is of strategic importance for public, private sectors, and policy makers when it comes to fresh water management. In order to better understand the extent of climate change impacts on water resources of continental Europe, we developed a distributed hydrological model of Europe at high spatial and temporal resolution using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The hydrological model was calibrated for 1970 to 2006 using daily observation of streamflow and nitrate loads from 360 gauging stations across Europe. A vegetation growth routine was added to the model to better simulate evapotranspiration. The model results were calibrated with available agricultural crop yield data from other sources. As of future climate scenarios, we used the ISI-MIP project results which provides bias-corrected climate

  1. Peak Oil, Peak Coal and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, J. W.

    2009-05-01

    Research on future climate change is driven by the family of scenarios developed for the IPCC assessment reports. These scenarios create projections of future energy demand using different story lines consisting of government policies, population projections, and economic models. None of these scenarios consider resources to be limiting. In many of these scenarios oil production is still increasing to 2100. Resource limitation (in a geological sense) is a real possibility that needs more serious consideration. The concept of 'Peak Oil' has been discussed since M. King Hubbert proposed in 1956 that US oil production would peak in 1970. His prediction was accurate. This concept is about production rate not reserves. For many oil producing countries (and all OPEC countries) reserves are closely guarded state secrets and appear to be overstated. Claims that the reserves are 'proven' cannot be independently verified. Hubbert's Linearization Model can be used to predict when half the ultimate oil will be produced and what the ultimate total cumulative production (Qt) will be. US oil production can be used as an example. This conceptual model shows that 90% of the ultimate US oil production (Qt = 225 billion barrels) will have occurred by 2011. This approach can then be used to suggest that total global production will be about 2200 billion barrels and that the half way point will be reached by about 2010. This amount is about 5 to 7 times less than assumed by the IPCC scenarios. The decline of Non-OPEC oil production appears to have started in 2004. Of the OPEC countries, only Saudi Arabia may have spare capacity, but even that is uncertain, because of lack of data transparency. The concept of 'Peak Coal' is more controversial, but even the US National Academy Report in 2007 concluded only a small fraction of previously estimated reserves in the US are actually minable reserves and that US reserves should be reassessed using modern methods. British coal production can be

  2. An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wanderson Bucker Moraes

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2 focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.

  3. Climate Change in the Seychelles: Implications for Water and Coral Reefs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Payet, Rolph; Agricole, Wills [National Meteorological Services Mahe (Seychelles). Div. of Policy, Planning and Services

    2006-06-15

    The Seychelles is a small island state in the western Indian Ocean that is vulnerable to the effects of climate change. This vulnerability led the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 to express concern over the potential economic and social consequences that may be faced by small island states. Small island states should be prepared to adapt to such changes, especially in view of their dependence on natural resources, such as water and coral reefs, to meet basic human welfare needs. Analysis of long-term data for precipitation, air temperature, and sea-surface temperature indicated that changes are already observable in the Seychelles. The increase in dry spells that resulted in drought conditions in 1999 and the 1998 mass coral bleaching are indicative of the events that are likely to occur under future climate change. Pre-IPCC Third Assessment Report scenarios and the new SRES scenarios are compared for changes in precipitation and air surface temperature for the Seychelles. These intercomparisons indicate that the IS92 scenarios project a much warmer and wetter climate for the Seychelles than do the SRES scenarios. However, a wetter climate does not imply readily available water, but rather longer dry spells with more intense precipitation events. These observations will likely place enormous pressures on water-resources management in the Seychelles. Similarly, sea-surface temperature increases predicted by the HADCm{sup 3} model will likely trigger repeated coral-bleaching episodes, with possible coral extinctions within the Seychelles region by 2040. The cover of many coral reefs around the Seychelles have already changed, and the protection of coral-resilient areas is a critical adaptive option.

  4. The economics of climate change mitigation in developing countries - methodological and empirical results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Halsnaes, K.

    1997-12-01

    This thesis presents a methodological and empirical discussion of the costs associated with implementing greenhouse gas reduction strategies in developing countries. It presents a methodological framework for national costing studies and evaluates a number of associated valuation methods. The methodological framework has been applied in several developing countries as part of a UNEP project in which the author has participated, and reference is made to the results of these country studies. Some of the theoretical issues associated with the determination of the costs of emission reductions are discussed with reference to a number of World Bank and UN guidelines for project analysis in developing countries. The use of several accounting prices is recommended for mitigation projects, with a distinction being made between internationally and domestically traded goods. The consequences of using different accounting prices are discussed with respect to the methodology applied in the UNEP country studies. In conclusion the thesis reviews the results of some of the most important international studies of greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries. The review, which encompasses a total of 27 country studies, was undertaken by the author for the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, the IPCC. Its conclusion is that the UNEP methodological framework and associated country study results are consistent with the recommendations and conclusions of the IPCC. (EG) 23 refs.

  5. The economics of climate change mitigation in developing countries -methodological and empirical results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halsnaes, K.

    1997-12-01

    This thesis presents a methodological and empirical discussion of the costs associated with implementing greenhouse gas reduction strategies in developing countries. It presents a methodological framework for national costing studies and evaluates a number of associated valuation methods. The methodological framework has been applied in several developing countries as part of a UNEP project in which the author has participated, and reference is made to the results of these country studies. Some of the theoretical issues associated with the determination of the costs of emission reductions are discussed with reference to a number of World Bank and UN guidelines for project analysis in developing countries. The use of several accounting prices is recommended for mitigation projects, with a distinction being made between internationally and domestically traded goods. The consequences of using different accounting prices are discussed with respect to the methodology applied in the UNEP country studies. In conclusion the thesis reviews the results of some of the most important international studies of greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries. The review, which encompasses a total of 27 country studies, was undertaken by the author for the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, the IPCC. Its conclusion is that the UNEP methodological framework and associated country study results are consistent with the recommendations and conclusions of the IPCC. (EG) 23 refs

  6. Changing Energy Requirements in the Mediterranean Under Changing Climatic Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Demosthenous

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the impacts of climate change on energy requirements in the Mediterranean. Energy requirements, especially for space heating and cooling, are closely linked to several weather variables, mainly air temperature. The analysis is based on daily temperature outputs from several regional climate models run at a resolution of 25 km × 25 km in the framework of EU project ENSEMBLES using the A1B emissions scenario. The impacts of changes in temperature on energy requirements are investigated using the concept of degree days, defined as the difference of mean air temperature from a base temperature. Base temperature should be chosen to coincide with the minimum energy consumption. In this way, changes in heating and cooling requirements between the reference and the future period are calculated and areas about to undergo large changes identified. These changes are calculated between a 30-year reference period 1961–1990 and a near future period 2021–2050 taking the ensemble mean of all regional climate models. The near-term future has been chosen instead of the frequently used end-of-the-century period to assist policy makers in their planning. In general, a decrease in energy requirements is projected under future milder winters and an increase under hotter summers.

  7. Climate-change-driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nerem, R S; Beckley, B D; Fasullo, J T; Hamlington, B D; Masters, D; Mitchum, G T

    2018-02-27

    Using a 25-y time series of precision satellite altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3, we estimate the climate-change-driven acceleration of global mean sea level over the last 25 y to be 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y 2 Coupled with the average climate-change-driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm/y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  8. Future potential distribution of the emerging amphibian chytrid fungus under anthropogenic climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rödder, Dennis; Kielgast, Jos; Lötters, Stefan

    2010-11-01

    Anthropogenic climate change poses a major threat to global biodiversity with a potential to alter biological interactions at all spatial scales. Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates and have been subject to increasing conservation attention over the past decade. A particular concern is the pandemic emergence of the parasitic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which has been identified as the cause of extremely rapid large-scale declines and species extinctions. Experimental and observational studies have demonstrated that the host-pathogen system is strongly influenced by climatic parameters and thereby potentially affected by climate change. Herein we project a species distribution model of the pathogen onto future climatic scenarios generated by the IPCC to examine their potential implications on the pandemic. Results suggest that predicted anthropogenic climate change may reduce the geographic range of B. dendrobatidis and its potential influence on amphibian biodiversity.

  9. Inevitable changes in snowpack and water resources over California's Sierra Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, A. D.; Sun, F.; Walton, D.; Berg, N.; Schwartz, M. A.

    2015-12-01

    Here we use a downscaling technique incorporating both dynamical and statistical methods to project end-of-century changes in spring snow water equivalent in California's Sierra Nevada. The technique produces outcomes for all Global Climate Models (GCMs) and the four greenhouse gas forcing scenarios adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For all GCMs and forcing scenarios, significant snow loss occurs at elevations below 2500 meters, despite increasing precipitation in many GCMs. The loss is significantly enhanced by snow albedo feedback. The approximate intermodel range in percent of total snow remaining in the entire region is 60-85% for a likely "mitigation" scenario, and 35-55% for the "business-as-usual" scenario. Thus significant snowpack decrease by century's end is inevitable, even if the loss can be cushioned through greenhouse gas emissions reductions over the coming decades. The snowpack loss also leads to significant changes in runoff timing, which are also inevitable.

  10. Socio-economic scenario development for the assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural land use: a pairwise comparison approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abildtrup, Jens; Audsley, E.; Fekete-Farkas, M.

    2006-01-01

    Assessment of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change is strongly dependent on concurrent changes in socio-economic development pathways. This paper presents an integrated approach to the construction of socio-economic scenarios required for the analysis of climate change impacts...... on European agricultural land use. The scenarios are interpreted from the storylines described in the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) special report on emission scenarios (SRES), which ensures internal consistency between the evolution of socio-economics and climate change. A stepwise...... downscaling procedure based on expert-judgement and pairwise comparison is presented to obtain quantitative socio-economic parameters, e.g. prices and productivity estimates that are input to the ACCELERATES integrated land use model. In the first step, the global driving forces are identified and quantified...

  11. The effect of the pathway to a two degrees warmer world on the regional temperature change of Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathrine Fox Maule

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to investigate if the pathway to reach a 2 degree warmer world influences the regional climate in Europe at the time of 2 degrees of global warming above the pre-industrial level. We have investigated this using climate change data from ensembles of both Global Climate Models and Regional Climate Models. We compare the change of regional temperature in Europe to the global temperature change for different emission scenarios, following the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP, to see if the pathway has any influence. We find that there is a small but significant difference in the regional temperature change, but the effect is small compared to internal variability on the timescales involved in reaching +2 degrees for the investigated emission scenarios. From an adaptation point of view, reaching +2 degrees as slowly as possible will obviously allow for a longer time period to implement adaptation measures to mitigate the effect of climate change.

  12. Multi-Model Simulations of Aerosol and Ozone Radiative Forcing Due to Anthropogenic Emission Changes During the Period 1990-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myhre, Gunnar; Aas, Wenche; Ribu, Cherian; Collins, William; Faluvegi, Gregory S.; Flanner, Mark; Forster, Piers; Hodnebrog, Oivind; Klimont, Zbigniew; Lund, Marianne T.

    2017-01-01

    Over the past few decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and air pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990-2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The models broadly reproduce large-scale changes in surface aerosol and ozone based on observations (e.g. 1 to 3 percent per year in aerosols over the USA and Europe). The global mean radiative forcing due to ozone and aerosol changes over the 1990-2015 period increased by 0.17 plus or minus 0.08 watts per square meter, with approximately one-third due to ozone. This increase is more strongly positive than that reported in IPCC AR5 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report). The main reasons for the increased positive radiative forcing of aerosols over this period are the substantial reduction of global mean SO2 emissions, which is stronger in the new emission inventory compared to that used in the IPCC analysis, and higher black carbon emissions.

  13. Climate Change, Soils, and Human Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brevik, Eric C.

    2013-04-01

    According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, global temperatures are expected to increase 1.1 to 6.4 degrees C during the 21st century and precipitation patterns will be altered by climate change (IPCC, 2007). Soils are intricately linked to the atmospheric/climate system through the carbon, nitrogen, and hydrologic cycles. Altered climate will, therefore, have an effect on soil processes and properties. Studies into the effects of climate change on soil processes and properties are still incomplete, but have revealed that climate change will impact soil organic matter dynamics including soil organisms and the multiple soil properties that are tied to organic matter, soil water, and soil erosion. The exact direction and magnitude of those impacts will be dependent on the amount of change in atmospheric gases, temperature, and precipitation amounts and patterns. Recent studies give reason to believe at least some soils may become net sources of atmospheric carbon as temperatures rise; this is particularly true of high latitude regions with permanently frozen soils. Soil erosion by both wind and water is also likely to increase. These soil changes will lead to both direct and indirect impacts on human health. Possible indirect impacts include temperature extremes, food safety and air quality issues, increased and/or expanded disease incidences, and occupational health issues. Potential direct impacts include decreased food security and increased atmospheric dust levels. However, there are still many things we need to know more about. How climate change will affect the nitrogen cycle and, in turn, how the nitrogen cycle will affect carbon sequestration in soils is a major research need, as is a better understanding of soil water-CO2 level-temperature relationships. Knowledge of the response of plants to elevated atmospheric CO2 given limitations in nutrients like nitrogen and phosphorus and how that affects soil organic matter dynamics is a critical

  14. Projected hydrologic changes in monsoon-dominated Himalaya Mountain basins with changing climate and deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neupane, Ram P.; White, Joseph D.; Alexander, Sara E.

    2015-06-01

    In mountain headwaters, climate and land use changes affect short and long term site water budgets with resultant impacts on landslide risk, hydropower generation, and sustainable agriculture. To project hydrologic change associated with climate and land use changes in the Himalaya Mountains, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) calibrated for the Tamor and Seti River basins located at eastern and western margins of Nepal. Future climate change was modeled using averaged temperature and precipitation for 2080 derived from Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (B1, A1B and A2) of 16 global circulation models (GCMs). Land use change was modeled spatially and included expansion of (1) agricultural land, (2) grassland, and (3) human settlement area that were produced by considering existing land use with projected changes associated with viability of elevation and slope characteristics of the basins capable of supporting different land use type. From these simulations, higher annual stream discharge was found for all GCM-derived scenarios compared to a baseline simulation with maximum increases of 13 and 8% in SRES-A2 and SRES-A1B for the Tamor and Seti basins, respectively. On seasonal basis, we assessed higher precipitation during monsoon season in all scenarios that corresponded with higher stream discharge of 72 and 68% for Tamor and Seti basins, respectively. This effect appears to be geographically important with higher influence in the eastern Tamor basin potentially due to longer and stronger monsoonal period of that region. However, we projected minimal changes in stream discharge for the land use scenarios potentially due to higher water transmission to groundwater reservoirs associated with fractures of the Himalaya Mountains rather than changes in surface runoff. However, when combined the effects of climate and land use changes, discharge was moderately increased indicating counteracting mechanisms of hydrologic yield in these mountains

  15. How will the impact of El Nino and La Nina on Australia change under global warming?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Power, Scott; Morgan, Adam; Moise, Aurel; Grainger, Simon; Smith, Ian; Reeder, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Full text: The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a profound influence on Australia. How will this influence change under global warming? Will El Nino droughts become more frequent or more intense? Will La Nina events tend to produce more or less rainfall over Australia than they have in the past? Has ENSO already changed? Has ENSO's impact on Australia already changed? Will global warming be 'El Nino-like'? How well do current models simulate ENSO and how reliable are their projections for ENSO? Here we will provide answers to these questions drawing on the IPCC (2007) report and recent research conducted here in Australia. We will see that: ENSO and its impact on Australia varied substantially on decadal and longer time-scales over the past century; The frequency of El Nino events appeared to increase; The Walker Circulation, which is one of the most prominent and important atmospheric circulations in the world, is centred in the Pacific Ocean and is strongly modulated by ENSO. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) - which is used to track ENSO and the strength of the Walker Circulation -has trended down over the past century. The tropical Pacific - the engine room for ENSO - has warmed to unprecedented levels. The Walker Circulation weakens in some models in response to global warming. The relationship between Australian rainfall, temperature and the SOI has changed. The IPCC WG1 Report (2007) concluded that'... there is no consistent indication at this time of discernable changes in ENSO amplitude or frequency in the 21st century'. Even if ENSO variability in the tropical Pacific does not change, ENSO's impact on Australia might. Evidence supporting this hypothesis will be provided. Finally, we will discuss what this all means for Australia

  16. The Impact of Climate Change in Rainfall Erosivity Index on Humid Mudstone Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ci-Jian; Lin, Jiun-Chuan

    2017-04-01

    It has been quite often pointed out in many relevant studies that climate change may result in negative impacts on soil erosion. Then, humid mudstone area is highly susceptible to climate change. Taiwan has extreme erosion in badland area, with annual precipitation over 2000 mm/y which is a considerably 3 times higher than other badland areas around the world, and with around 9-13 cm/y in denudation rate. This is the reason why the Erren River, a badland dominated basin has the highest mean sediment yield in the world, over 105 t km2 y. This study aims to know how the climate change would affect soil erosion from the source in the Erren River catchment. Firstly, the data of hourly precipitation from 1992 to 2016 are used to establish the regression between rainfall erosivity index (R, one of component for USLE) and precipitation. Secondly, using the 10 climate change models (provide form IPCC AR5) simulates the changes of monthly precipitation in different scenario from 2017 to 2216, and then over 200 years prediction R values can be use to describe the tendency of soil erosion in the future. The results show that (1) the relationship between rainfall erosion index and precipitation has high correction (>0.85) during 1992-2016. (2) From 2017 to 2216, 7 scenarios show that annual rainfall erosion index will increase over 2-18%. In contrast, the others will decrease over 7-14%. Overall, the variations of annual rainfall erosion index fall in the range of -14 to 18%, but it is important to pay attention to the variation of annual rainfall erosion index in extreme years. These fall in the range of -34 to 239%. This explains the extremity of soil erosion will occur easily in the future. Keywords: Climate Change, Mudstone, Rainfall Erosivity Index, IPCC AR5

  17. Conceptual understanding of climate change with a globally resolved energy balance model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dommenget, Dietmar [Monash University, School of Mathematical Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Floeter, Janine [Leibniz Institute for Marine Sciences, Kiel (Germany)

    2011-12-15

    The future climate change projections are essentially based on coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulations, which give a distinct global warming pattern with arctic winter amplification, an equilibrium land-sea warming contrast and an inter-hemispheric warming gradient. While these simulations are the most important tool of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions, the conceptual understanding of these predicted structures of climate change and the causes of their uncertainties is very difficult to reach if only based on these highly complex CGCM simulations. In the study presented here we will introduce a very simple, globally resolved energy balance (GREB) model, which is capable of simulating the main characteristics of global warming. The model shall give a bridge between the strongly simplified energy balance models and the fully coupled 4-dimensional complex CGCMs. It provides a fast tool for the conceptual understanding and development of hypotheses for climate change studies, which shall build a basis or starting point for more detailed studies of observations and CGCM simulations. It is based on the surface energy balance by very simple representations of solar and thermal radiation, the atmospheric hydrological cycle, sensible turbulent heat flux, transport by the mean atmospheric circulation and heat exchange with the deeper ocean. Despite some limitations in the representations of the basic processes, the models climate sensitivity and the spatial structure of the warming pattern are within the uncertainties of the IPCC models simulations. It is capable of simulating aspects of the arctic winter amplification, the equilibrium land-sea warming contrast and the inter-hemispheric warming gradient with good agreement to the IPCC models in amplitude and structure. The results give some insight into the understanding of the land-sea contrast and the polar amplification. The GREB model suggests that the regional inhomogeneous

  18. The climatic change induced by human activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balairon Ruiz, L.

    2004-01-01

    The climate of the Earth is a changing climate. Along their history many natural climate changes have existed in all time scales. At the present time we use the term climate changes have existed in all time scales. At the present time we use the term climate change in a restricted way, understanding that we have referring to a singular change that has their origin in the modification of the natural composition of the atmosphere. The increase of greenhouse gases from the second half the XVIII century, is due to the human activities of fossil fuels burning to obtain energy and to industrial and agricultural activities needing for the development of a world which population has been duplicated between 1960 and 2000, until overcoming the 6,000 million inhabitants. In particular, the concentrations of carbon dioxide-CO 2 have increased in a 34%. The more recent emission scenarios proposed by the IPCC (SRES, 2000) are based on hypothesis about the population evolution, the energy consumption and the word patterns of development, which are grouped in four families dominated as A1, A2, B1 and B2. The answer for these scenarios from a range of climate models results in an increase of the world average surface atmospheric temperature between 1,4 degree centigrade and 5,8 degree centigrade and a corresponding sea level rise understood between 9 cm and 88 cm. The changes in the precipitation patterns show us that could be above to the current one in high and media latitudes and below in subtropical latitudes, with exceptions highly depending of the model used. (Author)

  19. Images of Polar Bears and Penguins, Storms, Deforestation and More - Middle School Students Perceptions of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopal, S.; Melaas, E. K.; Malmrose, M.; Mullokandov, A.

    2014-12-01

    Global change studies aim to foster a deeper understanding of the causes and consequences of global change on planet Earth. The study of global change presents a rich domain of inquiry, exploration, and discovery at all grade levels. The main objective of this exploratory study was to assess middle school students' perceptions of global change as part of their participation in the NSF GK12 program called GLACIER (Global Change Initiative - Education and Research) during the academic year 2012-13. The middle schools are located in the Metro Boston area. As part of the program, participating students were asked to draw pictures of their perceptions and ideas on global change. The drawings of 150 children, ages 11 to 13, were qualitatively analyzed. The analysis focused on (a) the type of concepts children chose to convey, (b) the specific context of the global change described (polar bears in floating glaciers), (c) students direct representation of anthropocentric impacts (such as pollution or deforestation), and (d) the match between students concepts and the recent IPCC reports. About 20% of the students focused on the iconic imagery of the melting glaciers and impact on animals such as penguins and polar bears, more than 25% focused on natural disasters (such as storms, sea level changes) while 30% focused on urban problems. These concepts are matched with the recent IPCC report. These results are notable and suggest students in middle schools understand the varied dimensions of global change and the role of human activities in bringing about change. Students' perspectives may help in developing a suitable curriculum using existing science standards to discuss this significant topic in middle school classrooms. In addition, students' drawings illustrate their perception of the coupled human and natural systems.

  20. Created mangrove wetlands store belowground carbon and surface elevation change enables them to adjust to sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krauss, Ken W.; Cormier, Nicole; Osland, Michael J.; Kirwan, Matthew L.; Stagg, Camille L.; Nestlerode, Janet A.; Russell, Marc J.; From, Andrew; Spivak, Amanda C.; Dantin, Darrin D.; Harvey, James E.; Almario, Alejandro E.

    2017-01-01

    Mangrove wetlands provide ecosystem services for millions of people, most prominently by providing storm protection, food and fodder. Mangrove wetlands are also valuable ecosystems for promoting carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, loss of mangrove wetlands and these ecosystem services are a global concern, prompting the restoration and creation of mangrove wetlands as a potential solution. Here, we investigate soil surface elevation change, and its components, in created mangrove wetlands over a 25 year developmental gradient. All created mangrove wetlands were exceeding current relative sea-level rise rates (2.6 mm yr−1), with surface elevation change of 4.2–11.0 mm yr−1 compared with 1.5–7.2 mm yr−1 for nearby reference mangroves. While mangrove wetlands store C persistently in roots/soils, storage capacity is most valuable if maintained with future sea-level rise. Through empirical modeling, we discovered that properly designed creation projects may not only yield enhanced C storage, but also can facilitate wetland persistence perennially under current rates of sea-level rise and, for most sites, for over a century with projected medium accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 6.0). Only the fastest projected accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 8.5) led to widespread submergence and potential loss of stored C for created mangrove wetlands before 2100.

  1. Created mangrove wetlands store belowground carbon and surface elevation change enables them to adjust to sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krauss, Ken W; Cormier, Nicole; Osland, Michael J; Kirwan, Matthew L; Stagg, Camille L; Nestlerode, Janet A; Russell, Marc J; From, Andrew S; Spivak, Amanda C; Dantin, Darrin D; Harvey, James E; Almario, Alejandro E

    2017-04-21

    Mangrove wetlands provide ecosystem services for millions of people, most prominently by providing storm protection, food and fodder. Mangrove wetlands are also valuable ecosystems for promoting carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, loss of mangrove wetlands and these ecosystem services are a global concern, prompting the restoration and creation of mangrove wetlands as a potential solution. Here, we investigate soil surface elevation change, and its components, in created mangrove wetlands over a 25 year developmental gradient. All created mangrove wetlands were exceeding current relative sea-level rise rates (2.6 mm yr -1 ), with surface elevation change of 4.2-11.0 mm yr -1 compared with 1.5-7.2 mm yr -1 for nearby reference mangroves. While mangrove wetlands store C persistently in roots/soils, storage capacity is most valuable if maintained with future sea-level rise. Through empirical modeling, we discovered that properly designed creation projects may not only yield enhanced C storage, but also can facilitate wetland persistence perennially under current rates of sea-level rise and, for most sites, for over a century with projected medium accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 6.0). Only the fastest projected accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 8.5) led to widespread submergence and potential loss of stored C for created mangrove wetlands before 2100.

  2. Global energy scenarios, climate change and sustainable development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2003-01-01

    Energy scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including various combinations of technology options and their implications. Many scenarios in the literature illustrate how energy system developments may affect global change. Examples are the new emissions scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the energy scenarios by the World Energy Assessment (WEA). Some of these scenarios describe energy futures that are compatible with sustainable development goals; such as improved energy efficiencies and the adoption of advanced energy supply technologies. Sustainable development scenarios are also characterized by low environmental impacts (at local, regional and global scales) and equitable allocation of resources and wealth. They can help explore different transitions toward sustainable development paths and alternative energy perspectives in general. The considerable differences in expected total energy requirements among the scenarios reflect the varying approaches used to address the need for energy services in the future and demonstrate effects of different policy frameworks, changes in human behavior and investments in the future, as well as alternative unfolding of the main scenario driving forces such as demographic transitions, economic development and technological change. Increases in research, development and deployment efforts for new energy technologies are a prerequisite for achieving further social and economic development in the world. Significant technological advances will be required, as well as incremental improvements in conventional energy technologies. In general, significant policy and behavioral changes will be needed during the next few decades to achieve more sustainable development paths and mitigate climate change toward the end of the century. (au)

  3. Changing Families, Changing Workplaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchi, Suzanne M.

    2011-01-01

    American families and workplaces have both changed dramatically over the past half-century. Paid work by women has increased sharply, as has family instability. Education-related inequality in work hours and income has grown. These changes, says Suzanne Bianchi, pose differing work-life issues for parents at different points along the income…

  4. An updated synthesis of the observed and projected impacts of climate change on the chemical, physical and biological processes in the oceans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ella Louise Howes

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The 5th Assessment Report (AR5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC states with very high certainty that anthropogenic emissions have caused measurable changes in the physical ocean environment. These changes are summarized with special focus on those that are predicted to have the strongest, most direct effects on ocean biological processes; namely, ocean warming and associated phenomena (including stratification and sea level rise as well as deoxygenation and ocean acidification. The biological effects of these changes are then discussed for microbes (including phytoplankton, plants, animals, warm and cold-water corals, and ecosystems. The IPCC AR5 highlighted several areas related to both the physical and biological processes that required further research. As a rapidly developing field, there have been many pertinent studies published since the cut off dates for the AR5, which have increased our understanding of the processes at work. This study undertook an extensive review of recently published literature to update the findings of the AR5 and provide a synthesized review on the main issues facing future oceans. The level of detail provided in the AR5 and subsequent work provided a basis for constructing projections of the state of ocean ecosystems in 2100 under two the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and 8.5. Finally the review highlights notable additions, clarifications and points of departure from AR5 provided by subsequent studies.

  5. Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Taiwan

    OpenAIRE

    An-Yuan Tsai Wen-Cheng Huang

    2011-01-01

    This paper establishes a comprehensive assessment model to measure the regional impact of climate change on Taiwan¡¦s water resources. Working from future rainfall data simulated by Japan¡¦s high-resolution GCM model JMA/MRI TL959L60 in a SRES-A1B scenario, we first apply climate change to an assessment model of renewable water resources to estimate the volume of renewable water resources on a regional basis. We then conduct a water resources system simulation based on estimates of future wat...

  6. Fixing Climate: What Past Climate Changes Reveal About the Current Threat-And How to Counter It

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinley, Galen A.

    2008-10-01

    The Earth's climate is changing due to human activities. Recent polls suggest that the U.S. public generally recognizes this fact, and the efforts that led the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and former U.S. vice president Al Gore to win the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize have played no small role in bringing most of the public to realize what scientists have been discussing for years. Yet aside from distorted Hollywood movie accounts such as The Day After Tomorrow, the public knows little about the potential for abrupt change in the climate system. With support from climate science philanthropist Gary Comer, climate scientist Wally Broecker has teamed with science writer Robert Kunzig in this book to bring abrupt climate change into public view. They do this elegantly and convincingly, making the first 12 chapters quite enjoyable.

  7. Modelling regional climate change and urban planning scenarios and their impacts on the urban environment in two cities with WRF-ACASA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falk, M.; Pyles, R. D.; Marras, S.; Spano, D.; Paw U, K. T.

    2011-12-01

    The number of urban metabolism studies has increased in recent years, due to the important impact that energy, water and carbon exchange over urban areas have on climate change. Urban modeling is therefore crucial in the future design and management of cities. This study presents the ACASA model coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) mesoscale model to simulate urban fluxes at a horizontal resolution of 200 meters for urban areas of roughly 100 km^2. As part of the European Project "BRIDGE", these regional simulations were used in combination with remotely sensed data to provide constraints on the land surface types and the exchange of carbon and energy fluxes from urban centers. Surface-atmosphere exchanges of mass and energy were simulated using the Advanced Canopy Atmosphere Soil Algorithm (ACASA). ACASA is a multi-layer high-order closure model, recently modified to work over natural, agricultural as well as urban environments. In particular, improvements were made to account for the anthropogenic contribution to heat and carbon production. For two cities four climate change and four urban planning scenarios were simulated: The climate change scenarios include a base scenario (Sc0: 2008 Commit in IPCC), a medium emission scenario (Sc1: IPCC A2), a worst case emission scenario (Sce2: IPCC A1F1) and finally a best case emission scenario (Sce3: IPCC B1). The urban planning scenarios include different development scenarios such as smart growth. The two cities are a high latitude city, Helsinki (Finland) and an historic city, Florence (Italy). Helsinki is characterized by recent, rapid urbanization that requires a substantial amount of energy for heating, while Florence is representative of cities in lower latitudes, with substantial cultural heritage and a comparatively constant architectural footprint over time. In general, simulated fluxes matched the point observations well and showed consistent improvement in the energy partitioning over

  8. Lightning, atmospheric electricity and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Price, C.

    1993-10-01

    Temperature records indicate that a global warming of 0.5-0.7 degrees C has occurred over the past century (Hansen and Lebedeff, 1987). Whether this trend is a result of increased trace gas concentrations in the atmosphere, or simply a result of natural variability; is still not known. These temperature trends are derived from thousands of observations worldwide. However, these observations are concentrated largely over continental areas, and then mainly in the northern hemisphere's populated regions. This northern hemisphere continental bias results in large uncertainties in estimates of global temperature trends. Due to the increasing evidence that the present buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere may result in an additional global warming of 1-5 degrees C by the year 2050 (IPCC, 1990), it is increasingly important to find afternative methods to monitor fluctuations in global surface temperatures. As shown by two recent studies (Williams, 1992; Price, 1993), the global atmospheric electric circuit may provide a promising afternative for monitoring future climate change

  9. Detection and Attribution of Regional Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bala, G; Mirin, A

    2007-01-19

    We developed a high resolution global coupled modeling capability to perform breakthrough studies of the regional climate change. The atmospheric component in our simulation uses a 1{sup o} latitude x 1.25{sup o} longitude grid which is the finest resolution ever used for the NCAR coupled climate model CCSM3. Substantial testing and slight retuning was required to get an acceptable control simulation. The major accomplishment is the validation of this new high resolution configuration of CCSM3. There are major improvements in our simulation of the surface wind stress and sea ice thickness distribution in the Arctic. Surface wind stress and ocean circulation in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are also improved. Our results demonstrate that the FV version of the CCSM coupled model is a state of the art climate model whose simulation capabilities are in the class of those used for IPCC assessments. We have also provided 1000 years of model data to Scripps Institution of Oceanography to estimate the natural variability of stream flow in California. In the future, our global model simulations will provide boundary data to high-resolution mesoscale model that will be used at LLNL. The mesoscale model would dynamically downscale the GCM climate to regional scale on climate time scales.

  10. Innovating the IPCC review process: The potential of young talent

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Veer, L.; Visser, H.; Petersen, A.C.; Janssen, P.H.M.

    2014-01-01

    There is significant potential in young talent for enhancing the credibility of the scientific assessments such as the IPCC’s by contributing to quality assurance and quality control. In this essay, we reflect on an experiment that was done by the Dutch government as part of its government review of

  11. Increase of solar radiation due to climate change and its impact on solar energy use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuhnke, K.; Rahme, A.; Harling, J.; Arensmann, R.

    2008-01-01

    Full text: There is a significant change in solar radiation in Central Europe coinciding with the IPCC climate change model calculations. The increase of yearly solar radiation on the horizontal surface is about 0.38 percent/year. On the other hand, photovoltaic solar modules show an ageing effect of the same order of magnitude, i.e. a reduction of yearly energy yield between 0.3 and 0.5 percent/year. This reduction is normally taken into account in economic calculations such as payback time and internal rate of interest. As the two trends of increase in radiation and ageing of solar modules are in opposite direction to each other, they will - with their uncertainties - neutralize one another to zero. Thus, the energy production of photovoltaic systems can be calculated without any deductions due to ageing in the future. (authors)

  12. The Health Effects of Climate Change in the WHO European Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanja Wolf

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The evidence of observed health effects as well as projections of future health risks from climate variability and climate change is growing. This article summarizes new knowledge on these health risks generated since the IPCC fourth assessment report (AR4 was published in 2007, with a specific focus on the 53 countries comprising the WHO European Region. Many studies on the effects of weather, climate variability, and climate change on health in the European Region have been published since 2007, increasing the level of certainty with regard to already known health threats. Exposures to temperature extremes, floods, storms, and wildfires have effects on cardiovascular and respiratory health. Climate- and weather-related health risks from worsening food and water safety and security, poor air quality, and ultraviolet radiation exposure as well as increasing allergic diseases, vector- and rodent-borne diseases, and other climate-sensitive health outcomes also warrant attention and policy action to protect human health.

  13. Simulating Hydrologic Changes with Climate Change Scenarios in the Haihe River Basin

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YUAN Fei; XIE Zheng-Hui; LIU Qian; XIA Jun

    2005-01-01

    Climate change scenarios, predicted using the regional climate modeling system of PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies), were used to derive three-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) land surface model for the simulation of hydrologic processes at a spatial resolution of 0.25°× 0.25° in the Haihe River Basin. Three climate scenaxios were considered in this study: recent climate (1961-1990), future climate A2 (1991-2100) and future climate B2 (1991-2100) with A2 and B2 being two storylines of future emissions developed with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report on emissions scenarios. Overall, under future climate scenarios A2 and B2, the Haihe River Basin would experience warmer climate with increased precipitation, evaporation and runoff production as compared with recent climate, but would be still likely prone to water shortages in the period of 2031-2070. In addition,under future climate A2 and B2, an increase in runoff during the wet season was noticed, indicating a future rise in the flood occurrence possibility in the Haihe River Basin.

  14. Climate change impacts and adaptation : a Canadian perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemmen, D.S.; Warren, F.J.

    2004-01-01

    This book summarizes the research that has been conducted in Canada over the past five years on the issue of climate change impacts on key sectors such as water resources, agriculture, forestry, fisheries, coastal zones, transportation, and human health and well-being. The book refers to the growing evidence that climate change is occurring. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) believes that these changes have already contributed to increases in annual precipitation, cloud cover and extreme temperatures over the last 50 years. It suggests that it in order to develop an effective strategy for adaptation, it is necessary to understand the vulnerability of each sector to climate change in terms of the nature of climate change, the climatic sensitivity of the region being considered, and the capacity to adapt to the changes. Adaptation will require a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in order to lower the rate of climate change. Problems associated with water resources include water quality issues that relate to water shortages from droughts, or excesses from floods. The impacts of climate change on agriculture will vary depending on precipitation changes, soil conditions, and land use. Some studies have suggested that higher temperatures would benefit the forestry sector by improving the growth rate of trees, but the increase in the frequency and severity of moisture stress and forest disturbances would create other problems. Adaptations in the fisheries sector may have implications for the water resources, transportation, tourism and human health sectors. The impact of climate change in the coastal zone may include changes in water levels, wave patterns, storm surges, and thickness of seasonal ice cover. The areas that seem most vulnerable to climate change in the transportation sector include northern ice roads, Great Lakes shipping, coastal infrastructure threatened by sea-level rise, and infrastructure located on permafrost

  15. The physiology of mangrove trees with changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovelock, Catherine E.; Krauss, Ken W.; Osland, Michael J.; Reef, Ruth; Ball, Marilyn C.; Meinzer, Frederick C.; Niinemets, Ülo

    2016-01-01

    Mangrove forests grow on saline, periodically flooded soils of the tropical and subtropical coasts. The tree species that comprise the mangrove are halophytes that have suites of traits that confer differing levels of tolerance of salinity, aridity, inundation and extremes of temperature. Here we review how climate change and elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 will influence mangrove forests. Tolerance of salinity and inundation in mangroves is associated with the efficient use of water for photosynthetic carbon gain which unpins anticipated gains in productivity with increasing levels of CO2. We review evidence of increases in productivity with increasing CO2, finding that enhancements in growth appear to be similar to trees in non-mangrove habitats and that gains in productivity with elevated CO2 are likely due to changes in biomass allocation. High levels of trait plasticity are observed in some mangrove species, which potentially facilitates their responses to climate change. Trait plasticity is associated with broad tolerance of salinity, aridity, low temperatures and nutrient availability. Because low temperatures and aridity place strong limits on mangrove growth at the edge of their current distribution, increasing temperatures over time and changing rainfall patterns are likely to have an important influence on the distribution of mangroves. We provide a global analysis based on plant traits and IPCC scenarios of changing temperature and aridity that indicates substantial global potential for mangrove expansion.

  16. Under pressure: Climate change, upwelling and eastern boundary upwelling ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marisol eGarcía-Reyes

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The IPCC AR5 provided an overview of the likely effects of climate change on Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS, stimulating increased interest in research examining the issue. We use these recent studies to develop a new synthesis describing climate change impacts on EBUS. We find that model and observational data suggest coastal upwelling-favorable winds in poleward portions of EBUS have intensified and will continue to do so in the future. Although evidence is weak in data that are presently available, future projections show that this pattern might be driven by changes in the positioning of the oceanic high-pressure systems rather than by deepening of the continental low-pressure systems, as previously proposed. There is low confidence regarding the future effects of climate change on coastal temperatures and biogeochemistry due to uncertainty in the countervailing responses to increasing upwelling and coastal warming, the latter of which could increase thermal stratification and render upwelling less effective in lifting nutrient-rich deep waters into the photic zone. Although predictions of ecosystem responses are uncertain, EBUS experience considerable natural variability and may be inherently resilient. However, multi-trophic level, end-to-end (i.e., winds to whales studies are needed to resolve the resilience of EBUS to climate change, especially their response to long-term trends or extremes that exceed pre-industrial ranges.

  17. Comparison of the results of climate change impact assessment between RCP8.5 and SSP2 scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D. K.; Park, J. H.; Park, C.; Kim, S.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change scenarios are mainly published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and include SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) scenarios (IPCC Third Report), RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios (IPCC 5th Report), and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. Currently widely used RCP scenarios are based on how future greenhouse gas concentrations will change. In contrast, SSP scenarios are that predict how climate change will change in response to socio-economic indicators such as population, economy, land use, and energy change. In this study, based on RCP 8.5 climate data, we developed a new Korean scenario using the future social and economic scenarios of SSP2. In the development of the scenario, not only Korea's emissions but also China and Japan's emissions were considered in terms of space. In addition, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions were taken into consideration. Using the newly developed scenarios, the impacts assessments of the forest were evaluated and the impacts were evaluated using the RCP scenarios. The average precipitation is similar to the SSP2 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario, but the SSP2 scenario shows the maximum value is lower than RCP8.5 scenario. This is because the SSP2 scenario simulates the summer precipitation weakly. The temperature distribution is similar for both scenarios, and it can be seen that the average temperature in the 2090s is higher than that in the 2050s. At present, forest net primary productivity of Korea is 693 tC/km2, and it is 679 tC/km2 when SSP2 scenario is applied. Also, the damage of forest by ozone is about 4.1-5.1%. On the other hand, when SSP2 scenario is applied, the forest net primary productivity of Korea is 607 tC/km2 and the forest net primary productivity of RCP8.5 scenario is 657 tC/km2. The analysis shows that the damage caused by climate change is reduced by 14.2% for the SSP2 scenario and 6.9% for the RCP8.5 scenario. The damage caused

  18. [Diagnostic agreement between two glycosylated a1b hemoglobin methods in Primary Care].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villar-del-Campo, M C; Rodríguez-Caravaca, G; Gil-Yonte, P; Cidoncha-Calderón, E; García-Cruces Méndez, J; Donnay-Pérez, S

    2014-01-01

    Several methods are available for measuring glycosylated A1c hemoglobin (HbA1c), all rapid methods for point of care use in a clinical or laboratory setting. This study attempts to compare the diagnostic agreement between two methods for detection of HbA1c. A descriptive cross-sectional study of diagnostic agreement was carried out in the Los Carmenes Health Centre. Two groups of patients -with and without type 2 diabetes- were consecutively included. A method for point-of-care use in a Primary Care Clinic setting (DCA(TM) Systems Siemens(®)) was compared with a laboratory test (chromatographic analysis). An analysis was made of the mean concentration of HbA1c, the agreement between methods, using the intra-class correlation coefficient (CCLA1) and the Bland-Altman method. A total of 102 patients were included, 62 diabetic (60.8%) and 40 non-diabetic (39.2%). The overall mean HbA1c was 6.46% (SD=0.88) in the analysis using capillary blood in the clinic with the DCA™ system, and 6.44% (SD=0.86) using the laboratory test (P>.05). The degree of agreement between the two tests was 0.975 (95% CI: 0.963-0.983). The mean of the differences between the results of the two assessed tests was 0.024 (SD=0.27). The percentage of points outside the limits of optimal agreement, as defined in the Bland-Altman graph, was 2.5%. Diagnostic agreement between a method for point-of-care use in a Primary Health Care Clinic and a laboratory test was very high. Detection at the point-of-care allows a quick and simple assessment of HbA1c. Copyright © 2013 Sociedad Española de Médicos de Atención Primaria (SEMERGEN). Publicado por Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  19. 76 FR 56637 - Airworthiness Directives; Lycoming Engines Model IO-720-A1B Reciprocating Engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-14

    ....gov . Follow the instructions for submitting comments. Fax: 202-493-2251. Mail: U.S. Department of...., Washington, DC 20590. Hand Delivery: U.S. Department of Transportation, Docket Operations, M-30, West... the AD docket shortly after receipt. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Norm Perenson, Aerospace...

  20. On Efficient Numerical Approximation of the Bilinear Form c* A(-1)b

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Strakoš, Z.; Tichý, Petr

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 33, č. 2 (2011), s. 565-587 ISSN 1064-8275 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA100300802 Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GA201/09/0917; GA AV ČR(CZ) M100300901 Program:GA Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : bilinear forms * scattering amplitude * method of moments * Krylov subspace methods * conjugate gradient method * biconjugate gradient method * Lanczos algorithm * Arnoldi algorithm * Gauss-Christoffel quadrature * model reduction Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.569, year: 2011

  1. National Geothermal Data System State Contributions by Data Type (Appendix A1-b)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Love, Diane [Executive Office of the State of Arizona (Arizona Geological Survey)

    2015-12-20

    Multipaged spreadsheet listing an inventory of data submissions to the State contributions to the National Geothermal Data System project by services, by state, by metadata compilations, metadata, and map count, including a summary of information.

  2. Safety Evaluation for the Impact of Strom Surges on Nuclear Facilities considering the Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hyun, Seung Gyu; Jin, So Beom

    2012-01-01

    Twenty one units of Nuclear Power Plants(hereinafter NPPs) are operating and five units are under construction in Korea. In particular, Kori unit 1 has been operating for over 30 years. All of the interior NPPs are located in coastal areas and use the sea water for the cooling system. Therefore, the change of sea level seem to affect the safety of NPPs in case of a flood(Hyun et al., 2009). The IPCC 4 th Report(2007) showed that the climate change induced by the high CO 2 effluent scenario results in rise of the sea level (+ 26 to 59 cm), increase in wind strength and more increase of typhoon intensity in the period between 2090 and 2099 and the rate of global mean sea level rise was up to 1.8 ± 0.5 mm/yr from 1961 to 2003. Kang et al.(2005) reported that the rise rate of sea level was 5.4 ± 0.3 mm/yr at the entire East Sea and was 6.6 ± 0.4 mm/yr for the southern part of East Sea from 1992 to 2002. These results are approximately four times greater than the results of the IPCC 4 th Report. The IAEA recommends that some safety margin related with climate change should be taken into consideration in the design basis flood for constructing new NPPs considering the entire plant lifetime and for periodic safety reviewing of operating NPPs referring to the interval between two consecutive reviews(2003). This paper, therefore, summarized the current regulatory activities related with the safety assessment of the impact of storm surge on the NPPs with climate change

  3. Safety Evaluation for the Impact of Strom Surges on Nuclear Facilities considering the Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hyun, Seung Gyu; Jin, So Beom [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-05-15

    Twenty one units of Nuclear Power Plants(hereinafter NPPs) are operating and five units are under construction in Korea. In particular, Kori unit 1 has been operating for over 30 years. All of the interior NPPs are located in coastal areas and use the sea water for the cooling system. Therefore, the change of sea level seem to affect the safety of NPPs in case of a flood(Hyun et al., 2009). The IPCC 4{sup th} Report(2007) showed that the climate change induced by the high CO{sub 2} effluent scenario results in rise of the sea level (+ 26 to 59 cm), increase in wind strength and more increase of typhoon intensity in the period between 2090 and 2099 and the rate of global mean sea level rise was up to 1.8 {+-} 0.5 mm/yr from 1961 to 2003. Kang et al.(2005) reported that the rise rate of sea level was 5.4 {+-} 0.3 mm/yr at the entire East Sea and was 6.6 {+-} 0.4 mm/yr for the southern part of East Sea from 1992 to 2002. These results are approximately four times greater than the results of the IPCC 4{sup th} Report. The IAEA recommends that some safety margin related with climate change should be taken into consideration in the design basis flood for constructing new NPPs considering the entire plant lifetime and for periodic safety reviewing of operating NPPs referring to the interval between two consecutive reviews(2003). This paper, therefore, summarized the current regulatory activities related with the safety assessment of the impact of storm surge on the NPPs with climate change

  4. Changing climate, changing frames

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vink, Martinus J.; Boezeman, Daan; Dewulf, Art; Termeer, Catrien J.A.M.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► We show development of flood policy frames in context of climate change attention. ► Rising attention on climate change influences traditional flood policy framing. ► The new framing employs global-scale scientific climate change knowledge. ► With declining attention, framing disregards climate change, using local knowledge. ► We conclude that frames function as sensemaking devices selectively using knowledge. -- Abstract: Water management and particularly flood defence have a long history of collective action in low-lying countries like the Netherlands. The uncertain but potentially severe impacts of the recent climate change issue (e.g. sea level rise, extreme river discharges, salinisation) amplify the wicked and controversial character of flood safety policy issues. Policy proposals in this area generally involve drastic infrastructural works and long-term investments. They face the difficult challenge of framing problems and solutions in a publicly acceptable manner in ever changing circumstances. In this paper, we analyse and compare (1) how three key policy proposals publicly frame the flood safety issue, (2) the knowledge referred to in the framing and (3) how these frames are rhetorically connected or disconnected as statements in a long-term conversation. We find that (1) framings of policy proposals differ in the way they depict the importance of climate change, the relevant timeframe and the appropriate governance mode; (2) knowledge is selectively mobilised to underpin the different frames and (3) the frames about these proposals position themselves against the background of the previous proposals through rhetorical connections and disconnections. Finally, we discuss how this analysis hints at the importance of processes of powering and puzzling that lead to particular framings towards the public at different historical junctures

  5. Livelihood Vulnerability Approach to Assess Climate Change Impacts to Mixed Agro-Livestock Smallholders Around the Gandaki River Basin of Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panthi, J., Sr.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change vulnerability depends upon various factors and differs between places, sectors and communities. People in developing countries whose subsistence livelihood depends upon agriculture and livestock are identified as particularly vulnerable. Nepal, where the majority of people are in a mixed agro-livestock system, is identified as the world's fourth most vulnerable country to climate change. However, there are few studies on how vulnerable mixed agro-livestock smallholders are and how their vulnerability differs across different ecological regions. This study aims to test two vulnerability assessment indices, livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and IPCC vulnerability index (VI-IPCC), around the Gandaki river basin of Nepal. A total of 543 households practicing mixed agro-livestock were surveyed from three districts (Dhading, Syangja and Kapilvastu) representing the mountain, mid-hill and lowland altitudinal belts respectively. Data on socio-demographics, livelihoods, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters and climate variability were collected. Both indices differed across the three districts, with mixed agro-livestock smallholders of Dhading district found to be the most vulnerable and that of Syangja least vulnerable. This vulnerability index approach may be used to monitor rural vulnerability and/or evaluate potential program/policy effectiveness in poor countries like Nepal. The present findings are intended to help in designing intervention strategies to reduce vulnerability of mixed agro-livestock smallholders and other rural people in developing countries to climate change.

  6. Climate change science compendium 2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McMullen, C.P.; Jabbour, J.

    2009-09-15

    In a matter of a few weeks' time, governments will gather in Copenhagen, Denmark, for a crucial UN climate convention meeting. Many governments and stakeholders have requested an annual snapshot of how the science has been evolving since the publication of the IPCC's landmark fourth assessment in advance of the panel's next one in 2014. This Climate Change Science Compendium, based on the wealth of peerreviewed research published by researchers and institutions since 2006, has been compiled by UNEP in response to that request. The findings indicate that ever more rapid environmental change is underway with the pace and the scale of climate change accelerating, along with the confidence among researchers in their forecasts. The Arctic, with implications for the globe, is emerging as an area of major concern. There is growing evidence that the ice there is melting far faster than had been previously supposed. Mountains glaciers also appear to be retreating faster. Scientists now suggest that the Arctic could be virtually ice free in September of 2037 and that a nearly ice-free September by 2028 is well within the realms of possibility. Recent findings also show that significant warming extends well beyond the Antarctic Peninsula to cover most of West Antarctica, an area of warming much larger than previously reported. The impact on the Earth's multi-trillion dollar ecosystems is also a key area of concern. Under a high emission scenario-the one that most closely matches current trends-12-39 per cent of the planet's terrestrial surface could experience novel climate conditions and 10-48 per cent could suffer disappearing climates by 2100. Rising levels of aridity are also concentrating scientific minds. New research indicates that by the end of the 21st century the Mediterranean region will also experience much more severe increases in aridity than previously estimated rendering the entire region, but particularly the southern Mediterranean

  7. Climate Change in New York State Updating the 2011 ClimAID Climate Risk Information Supplement to NYSERDA Report 11-18 (Responding to Climate Change in New York State)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; DeGaetano, Arthur T.; Solecki, William

    2014-01-01

    In its 2013-2014 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that there is a greater than 95 percent chance that rising global average temperatures, observed since the mid-20th century, are primarily due to human activities. As had been predicted in the 1800s, the principal driver of climate change over the past century has been increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases associated with fossil-fuel combustion, changing land-use practices, and other human activities. Atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide are now approximately 40 percent higher than in preindustrial times. Concentrations of other important greenhouse gases, including methane and nitrous oxide, have increased rapidly as well.

  8. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting agricultural management for climate change in developing countries: providing the basis for action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogle, Stephen M; Olander, Lydia; Wollenberg, Lini; Rosenstock, Todd; Tubiello, Francesco; Paustian, Keith; Buendia, Leandro; Nihart, Alison; Smith, Pete

    2014-01-01

    Agriculture in developing countries has attracted increasing attention in international negotiations within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change for both adaptation to climate change and greenhouse gas mitigation. However, there is limited understanding about potential complementarity between management practices that promote adaptation and mitigation, and limited basis to account for greenhouse gas emission reductions in this sector. The good news is that the global research community could provide the support needed to address these issues through further research linking adaptation and mitigation. In addition, a small shift in strategy by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and ongoing assistance from agricultural organizations could produce a framework to move the research and development from concept to reality. In turn, significant progress is possible in the near term providing the basis for UNFCCC negotiations to move beyond discussion to action for the agricultural sector in developing countries. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Global estimations of the inventory and mitigation potential of methane emissions from rice cultivation conducted using the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Guidelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Xiaoyuan; Akiyama, Hiroko; Yagi, Kazuyuki; Akimoto, Hajime

    2009-06-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) regularly publishes guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories and methane emission (CH4) from rice paddies has been an important component of these guidelines. While there have been many estimates of global CH4 emissions from rice fields, none of them have been obtained using the IPCC guidelines. Therefore, we used the Tier 1 method described in the 2006 IPCC guidelines to estimate the global CH4 emissions from rice fields. To accomplish this, we used country-specific statistical data regarding rice harvest areas and expert estimates of relevant agricultural activities. The estimated global emission for 2000 was 25.6 Tg a-1, which is at the lower end of earlier estimates and close to the total emission summarized by individual national communications. Monte Carlo simulation revealed a 95% uncertainty range of 14.8-41.7 Tg a-1; however, the estimation uncertainty was found to depend on the reliability of the information available regarding the amount of organic amendments and the area of rice fields that were under continuous flooding. We estimated that if all of the continuously flooded rice fields were drained at least once during the growing season, the CH4 emissions would be reduced by 4.1 Tg a-1. Furthermore, we estimated that applying rice straw off season wherever and whenever possible would result in a further reduction in emissions of 4.1 Tg a-1 globally. Finally, if both of these mitigation options were adopted, the global CH4 emission from rice paddies could be reduced by 7.6 Tg a-1. Although draining continuously flooded rice fields may lead to an increase in nitrous oxide (N2O) emission, the global warming potential resulting from this increase is negligible when compared to the reduction in global warming potential that would result from the CH4 reduction associated with draining the fields.

  10. Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jasmine R.; Raymond, Ben; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.; Chadès, Iadine; Fuller, Richard A.; Shaw, Justine D.; Terauds, Aleks

    2017-07-01

    Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity occurs almost exclusively in ice-free areas that cover less than 1% of the continent. Climate change will alter the extent and configuration of ice-free areas, yet the distribution and severity of these effects remain unclear. Here we quantify the impact of twenty-first century climate change on ice-free areas under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate forcing scenarios using temperature-index melt modelling. Under the strongest forcing scenario, ice-free areas could expand by over 17,000 km2 by the end of the century, close to a 25% increase. Most of this expansion will occur in the Antarctic Peninsula, where a threefold increase in ice-free area could drastically change the availability and connectivity of biodiversity habitat. Isolated ice-free areas will coalesce, and while the effects on biodiversity are uncertain, we hypothesize that they could eventually lead to increasing regional-scale biotic homogenization, the extinction of less-competitive species and the spread of invasive species.

  11. Science Support for Climate Change Adaptation in South Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Early, Laura M.; Harvey, Rebecca G.

    2010-01-01

    Earth's changing climate is among the foremost conservation challenges of the 21st century, threatening to permanently alter entire ecosystems and contribute to extinctions of species. Lying only a few feet above sea level and already suffering effects of anthropogenic stressors, south Florida's ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to negative impacts of climate change. Recent research accounting for the gravitational effects of melting ice sheets predicts that sea level rise on U.S. coastlines will be much higher than global averages (Gomez et al. 2010), and the Miami-Dade Climate Change Advisory Task Force predicts that local sea level rise will be at least 3 to 5 ft. (0.9 m to 1.5 m) by 2100 (MDCCATF 2008). In a 5 ft. scenario, up to 873 additional square miles of the Everglades would be inundated with saltwater (see maps below). Accelerated sea level rise is likely to be accompanied by increasing temperatures (IPCC 2007a) and more intense tropical storms and hurricanes (Webster et al. 2005). In addition, changes in amount, timing, and distribution of rainfall in south Florida may lead to more severe droughts and floods (SFWMD 2009).

  12. Changing change detection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyllingsbæk, Søren; Bundesen, Claus

    2009-01-01

    The change detection paradigm is a popular way of measuring visual short-term memory capacity. Using the paradigm, researchers have found evidence for a capacity of about four independent visual objects, confirming classic estimates that were based on the number of items that could be reported...

  13. Changing Times, Changing Roles?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Stella

    1994-01-01

    Completion of the Vocational Preference Inventory by 97 British continuing educators showed their vocational interests were primarily creative and intellectual and least preferred activities were administration, marketing, and accounting. Because the latter are increasingly part of the job, conflicts and barriers to change could arise. (SK)

  14. Climate change and critical thresholds in China's food security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xiong, Wei; Lin, Erda; Ju, Hui; Xu, Yinlong [Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing (China)

    2007-03-15

    Identification of 'critical thresholds' of temperature increase is an essential task for inform policy decisions on establishing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. We use the A2 (medium-high GHG emission pathway) and B2 (medium-low) climate change scenarios produced by the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, the crop model - CERES, and socio-economic scenarios described by IPCC SRES, to simulate the average yield changes per hectare of three main grain crops (rice, wheat, and maize) at 50 km x 50 km scale. The threshold of food production to temperature increases was analyzed based on the relationship between yield changes and temperature rise, and then food security was discussed corresponding to each IPCC SRES scenario. The results show that without the CO2 fertilization effect in the analysis, the yield per hectare for the three crops would fall consistently as temperature rises beyond 2.5C; when the CO2 fertilization effect was included in the simulation, there were no adverse impacts on China's food production under the projected range of temperature rise (0.9-3.9C). A critical threshold of temperature increase was not found for food production. When the socio-economic scenarios, agricultural technology development and international trade were incorporated in the analysis, China's internal food production would meet a critical threshold of basic demand (300 kg/capita) while it would not under A2 (no CO2 fertilization); whereas basic food demand would be satisfied under both A2 and B2, and would even meet a higher food demand threshold required to sustain economic growth (400 kg/capita) under B2, when CO2 fertilization was considered.

  15. Level of knowledge in the science of climate change: will the climate really change in the 21st century?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bourque, A.

    2003-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently stated that mean temperature is not as stable as it used to be, indicating a trend toward global warming. Understanding this phenomena should lead to better decisions concerning reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. It should also make it easier to adapt our socio-economic and environmental activities to a new reality which seems inevitable. The author discussed climate equilibrium by looking at the five sub-systems: atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere. A review of the historical evolution of climate was presented along with an examination of the relationships between greenhouse gases and the recent evolution of climate. The author discussed the uncertainty of scenarios predicting the future of climate change and concluded that climate change is upon us and is likely to intensify in the future. It was emphasized that adaptation to climate change will have to include reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. According to the author, a scenario involving a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere appears almost unavoidable. 7 refs., 1 tab., 6 figs

  16. Development and climate change: the importance of a methane reduction policy for the 21. century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dessus, B.; Laponche, B.

    2008-01-01

    No-one any longer calls into question the latest IPCC report which emphasises the urgent need to take action to avoid the worst in terms of climate change. IPCC's Working Group II firstly shows that if the global average temperature in the atmosphere rises 2.5-3 deg. C above pre-industrial levels, there is a strong risk that irreversible impacts (melting of permafrost, highly reduced role of forest cover and oceans as carbon sinks), and thus unavoidable climate change, will occur. For this reason, regions such as Europe have set a target of a maximum 2 deg. C global temperature increase. But what does such a target mean in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations and emissions? This question can be answered in part by comparing many scenarios defined by the IPCC. This exercise shows that the only reasonable chance of statistically reaching the '2 deg. C' constraint is if humanity manages to stabilize concentrations of all GHGs between 400 and 450 ppmv CO 2 eq in the long term. However, the analysis also highlights that if GHG concentrations go significantly beyond this target threshold at any time in the intermediate period between 2020 and 2100 (above 475 to 500 ppmv), it is likely that it would become impossible to reach the target at all. CO 2 emissions more or less hold policy-makers' full attention. CO 2 effectively accounts for 77% of total emissions and it is the GHG with the most rapidly increasing emissions. The logical conclusion drawn is that priority action must be taken to reduce CO 2 emissions. However, it is necessary to analyse this in greater detail if we are to assess the real climate impacts of the different GHGs at different time horizons and particularly in 2030-2050, since this is the time horizon that holds policy-makers' attention. In particular, methane reduction measures, whatever their dynamics may be, are far from being marginal compared to those that can be implemented solely to reduce CO 2 emissions. This analysis shows that the

  17. Effects of future climate change, CO2 enrichment, and vegetation structure variation on hydrological processes in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Qiuan; Jiang, Hong; Peng, Changhui; Liu, Jinxun; Fang, Xiuqin; Wei, Xiaohua; Liu, Shirong; Zhou, Guomo

    2012-01-01

    Investigating the relationship between factors (climate change, atmospheric CO2 concentrations enrichment, and vegetation structure) and hydrological processes is important for understanding and predicting the interaction between the hydrosphere and biosphere. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) was used to evaluate the effects of climate change, rising CO2, and vegetation structure on hydrological processes in China at the end of the 21st century. Seven simulations were implemented using the assemblage of the IPCC climate and CO2 concentration scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1. Analysis results suggest that (1) climate change will have increasing effects on runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), transpiration (T), and transpiration ratio (transpiration/evapotranspiration, T/E) in most hydrological regions of China except in the southernmost regions; (2) elevated CO2 concentrations will have increasing effects on runoff at the national scale, but at the hydrological region scale, the physiology effects induced by elevated CO2 concentration will depend on the vegetation types, climate conditions, and geographical background information with noticeable decreasing effects shown in the arid Inland region of China; (3) leaf area index (LAI) compensation effect and stomatal closure effect are the dominant factors on runoff in the arid Inland region and southern moist hydrological regions, respectively; (4) the magnitudes of climate change (especially the changing precipitation pattern) effects on the water cycle are much larger than those of the elevated CO2 concentration effects; however, increasing CO2 concentration will be one of the most important modifiers to the water cycle; (5) the water resource condition will be improved in northern China but depressed in southernmost China under the IPCC climate change scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1.

  18. Invited Paper Research and development on climate change and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    GScholtz

    2014-08-22

    Aug 22, 2014 ... livestock and carbon sequestration, and (7) water and waste management. .... Pastoral risk management and decision support systems .... based on the IPCC methodologies, which are inadequate and inaccurate (Meissner et ...

  19. Climate change is about the future of our land, our resilience and our security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbut, Monique

    2014-04-01

    While the IPCC report focuses on the impacts of climate change and warns of the possibility of increased floods, drought, conflict and economic losses if carbon emissions continue unabated, it fails to capture the key role of adaptation; that is, ecosystem-based solutions for managing climate risks. According to the author, these solutions are at hand without additional finance; all that is required is a realignment of investment flows. This should not be seen as a threat to vested interests but rather as an opportunity for more equitable development. Investing in practical solutions that transform lives and increase adaptive capacity would be cheaper and work better than investing in walls, wars and relief. Improving the resilience and well-being of the rural poor and other land-dependent communities will improve our own well-being, our national security, and help ensure international stability today and in the future

  20. Adaptation to climate change. The necessary strengthening of collaborations between think tanks and NGOs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buffet, Christophe

    2014-10-01

    As the concept of adaptation to climate change was considered as an anticipated admission of failure of discussed policies, or even a way to divert the attention from major stakes (transformation of energy systems and of ways of life), it has gained strength and power since the 2000's. However, its implementation still raises questions. The author first discusses the differences between top-down and bottom-up approaches to adaptation, and notices that, if the first one has been prevailing until recently, the second one (as shown by the fifth IPCC report) is now regarded as more adequate due to the importance of social factors. The author then outlines the huge complexity of adaptation implementation, due to the multiplicity of scales, to a necessarily interdisciplinary approach, and to differences in temporalities. Then, he discusses how think tanks and NGOs could collaborate as they could gather research, field and policy expertises, and also favour transverse collaborations

  1. Projection of Korean Probable Maximum Precipitation under Future Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Okjeong Lee

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, air temperature and humidity of the future are expected to gradually increase over the current. In this study, future PMPs are estimated by using future dew point temperature projection data which are obtained from RCM data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. First, bias included in future dew point temperature projection data which is provided on a daily basis is corrected through a quantile-mapping method. Next, using a scale-invariance technique, 12-hour duration 100-year return period dew point temperatures which are essential input data for PMPs estimation are estimated from bias-corrected future dew point temperature data. After estimating future PMPs, it can be shown that PMPs in all future climate change scenarios (AR5 RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 are very likely to increase.

  2. An approach to include soil carbon changes in life cycle assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Bjorn Molt; Knudsen, Marie Trydeman; Hermansen, John Erik

    2013-01-01

    to estimate carbon sequestration to be included in LCA is suggested and applied to two examples where the inclusion of carbon sequestration is especially relevant: 1) Bioenergy: removal of straw from a Danish soil for energy purposes and 2) Organic versus conventional farming: comparative study of soybean...... comparable to the IPCC 2006 tier I approach in a time perspective of 20 year, where after the suggested methodology showed a continued soil carbon change toward a new steady state. The suggested method estimated a carbon sequestration for the first example when storing straw in the soil instead of using...... it for bioenergy of 54, 97 and 213 kg C t(-1) straw C in a 200, 100 and 20 years perspective, respectively. For the conversion from conventional to organic soybean production, a difference of 32, 60 or 143 kg soil C ha(-1) yr(-1) in a 200,100 or 20 years perspective, respectively was found. The study indicated...

  3. Habitat associations drive species vulnerability to climate change in boreal forests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mazziotta, Adriano; Triviño, María; Tikkanen, Olli-Pekka

    2016-01-01

    if species sensitivity, the species ability to tolerate climatic variations determined by traits, plays a key role in determining vulnerability. We analyse the role of species’ habitat associations, a proxy for sensitivity, in explaining vulnerability for two poorly-known but species-rich taxa in boreal...... forest, saproxylic beetles and fungi, using three IPCC emissions scenarios. Towards the end of the 21st century we projected an improvement in habitat quality associated with an increase of deadwood, an important resource for species, as a consequence of increased tree growth under high emissions...... scenarios. However, climate change will potentially reduce habitat suitability for ~9–43 % of the threatened deadwood-associated species. This loss is likely caused by future increase in timber extraction and decomposition rates causing higher deadwood turnover, which have a strong negative effect on boreal...

  4. The Impact of Climate Change on the United States Economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendelsohn, Robert; Neumann, James E.

    2004-08-01

    Understanding the impacts of climate change on economic behaviour is an important aspect of deciding when to take policy actions to prevent or mitigate its consequences. This book applies advanced new economics methodologies to assess impacts on potentially vulnerable aspects of the US economy: agriculture, timber, coastal resources, energy expenditure, fishing, outdoor recreation. It is intended to provide improved understanding of key issues raised in the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. It concludes that some climate change may produce economic gains in the agriculture and forestry sectors, whereas energy, coastal structures, and water sectors may be harmed. The book will serve as an important reference for the scientific, economic, and policy community, and will also be of interest to natural resource/environmental economists as an example of economic valuation techniques. The volume will clearly be of main importance to researchers and policymakers in the US, but will also be influential as a model for assessment of impacts on economies worldwide.

  5. Climate change and spatial distribution of vegetation in Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Carlos Alarcon Hincapie

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Vegetation change under two climate change scenarios in different periods of the 21st Century are modeled for Colombia. Vegetation for the years 1970 to 2000 was reproduced using the Holdridge model with climate data with a spatial resolution of 900 meters. The vegetation types that occupied the most territory were sub-humid tropical forest, tropical dry forest and Andean wet forest. These results were validated by comparing with the Colombian ecosystem map (SINA, 2007, which confirmed a high degree of similarity between the modeled spatial vegetation patterns and modern ecosystem distributions. Future vegetation maps were simulated using data generated by a regional climate model under two scenarios (A2 and B2; IPCC, 2007 for the periods 2011-2040 and 2070-2100. Based on our predictions high altitude vegetation will convert to that of lower altitudes and drier provinces with the most dramatic change occurring in the A2 scenario from 2070-2100. The most affected areas are the páramo and other high Andean vegetation types, which in the timeframe of the explored scenarios will disappear by the middle of the 21st Century.

  6. Ocean Physicochemistry versus Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Góralski, Bogdan

    2014-01-01

    It is the dwindling ocean productivity which leaves dissolved carbon dioxide in the seawater. Its solubility is diminished by the rise in ocean water temperature (by one degree Celsius since 1910, according to IPCC). Excess carbon dioxide is emitted into the atmosphere, while its growing concentration in seawater leads to ocean acidification. Ocean acidification leading to lowering pH of surface ocean water remains an unsolved problem of science. My today’s lecture will mark an attempt at ...

  7. 76 FR 6651 - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-07

    ... the leadership of the IPCC Working Group II. This report will exclusively focus on events and... usefulness of taking a risk perspective in order to identify ways in which civil society can promote... and practice for managing the risk of extreme events to advance effective adaptation. All IPCC reports...

  8. Changing without change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farné Fratini, Chiara; Frantzeskaki, Niki; Elle, Morten

    2013-01-01

    In the last decade, due to climate change impacts, increasing urban development, increased stress on natural resource and gradual aging of the technical infrastructure on place, the Danish urban water sector has realized the need to invest more generously on the optimization of technical performa......In the last decade, due to climate change impacts, increasing urban development, increased stress on natural resource and gradual aging of the technical infrastructure on place, the Danish urban water sector has realized the need to invest more generously on the optimization of technical...... performances and the innovation of management approaches in favor of non-structural measure and more integrated perspectives. On one hand, municipal plans have put an increasing attention on terms like urban livability, resilience and sustainability mostly resulting on an increasing focus on the need to create...... green and blue recreational spaces in the city-scape. On the other hand, in a context of economic downturn, national strategies aim at promoting the eco-innovation of the water sectors to support the Danish water industry competitiveness in the international market and create new jobs nationally...

  9. Changing families, changing workplaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchi, Suzanne M

    2011-01-01

    American families and workplaces have both changed dramatically over the past half-century. Paid work by women has increased sharply, as has family instability. Education-related inequality in work hours and income has grown. These changes, says Suzanne Bianchi, pose differing work-life issues for parents at different points along the income distribution. Between 1975 and 2009, the labor force rate of mothers with children under age eighteen increased from 47.4 percent to 71.6 percent. Mothers today also return to work much sooner after the birth of a child than did mothers half a century ago. High divorce rates and a sharp rise in the share of births to unmarried mothers mean that more children are being raised by a single parent, usually their mother. Workplaces too have changed, observes Bianchi. Today's employees increasingly work nonstandard hours. The well-being of highly skilled workers and less-skilled workers has been diverging. For the former, work hours may be long, but income has soared. For lower-skill workers, the lack of "good jobs" disconnects fathers from family obligations. Men who cannot find work or have low earnings potential are much less likely to marry. For low-income women, many of whom are single parents, the work-family dilemma is how to care adequately for children and work enough hours to support them financially. Jobs for working-class and lower middle-class workers are relatively stable, except in economic downturns, but pay is low, and both parents must work full time to make ends meet. Family income is too high to qualify for government subsidized child care, but too low to afford high-quality care in the private market. These families struggle to have a reasonable family life and provide for their family's economic well-being. Bianchi concludes that the "work and family" problem has no one solution because it is not one problem. Some workers need more work and more money. Some need to take time off around the birth of a child

  10. Projected changes in terrestrial carbon storage in Europe under climate and land-use change, 1990-2100

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaehle, S.; Bondeau, A.; Cramer, W.; Erhard, M.; Sitch, S.; Smith, P.C.; Zaehle, S.; Smith, P.C.; Carter, T.R.; Erhard, M.; Prentice, C.; Prentice, C.; Reginster, I.; Rounsevell, M.D.A.; Sitch, S.; Smith, B.; Sykes, M

    2007-01-01

    Changes in climate and land use, caused by socio-economic changes, greenhouse gas emissions, agricultural policies and other factors, are known to affect both natural and managed ecosystems, and will likely impact on the European terrestrial carbon balance during the coming decades. This study presents a comprehensive European Union wide (EU15 plus Norway and Switzerland, EU*) assessment of potential future changes in terrestrial carbon storage considering these effects based on four illustrative IPCC-SRES story-lines (A1FI, A2, B1, B2). A process-based land vegetation model (LPJ-DGVM), adapted to include a generic representation of managed ecosystems, is forced with changing fields of land-use patterns from 1901 to 2100 to assess the effect of land-use and cover changes on the terrestrial carbon balance of Europe. The uncertainty in the future carbon balance associated with the choice of a climate change scenario is assessed by forcing LPJ-DGVM with output from four different climate models (GCMs: CGCM2, CSIRO2, HadCM3, PCM2) for the same SRES story-line. Decrease in agricultural areas and afforestation leads to simulated carbon sequestration for all land-use change scenarios with an average net uptake of 17-38 Tg C/year between 1990 and 2100, corresponding to 1.9-2.9% of the EU*s CO 2 emissions over the same period. Soil carbon losses resulting from climate warming reduce or even offset carbon sequestration resulting from growth enhancement induced by climate change and increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations in the second half of the twenty-first century. Differences in future climate change projections among GCMs are the main cause for uncertainty in the cumulative European terrestrial carbon uptake of 4.4-10.1 Pg C between 1990 and 2100. (authors)

  11. Integrated Climate Change Impacts Assessment in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Meyer, R.; Anderson, M.; Bromirski, P. D.

    2014-12-01

    This paper summarizes lessons learned from an ongoing series of climate change assessments for California, conducted by the scientific community and State and local agencies. A series of three Assessments have considered vulnerability and adaptation issues for both managed and natural systems. California's vulnerability is many faceted, arising because of an exceptionally drought prone climate, open coast and large estuary exposure to sea level rise, sensitive ecosystems and complex human footprint and economy. Key elements of the assessments have been a common set of climate and sea-level rise scenarios, based upon IPCC GCM simulations. Regionalized and localized output from GCM projections was provided to research teams investigating water supply, agriculture, coastal resources, ecosystem services, forestry, public health, and energy demand and hydropower generation. The assessment results are helping to investigate the broad range of uncertainty that is inherent in climate projections, and users are becoming better equipped to process an envelope of potential climate and impacts. Some projections suggest that without changes in California's present fresh-water delivery system, serious water shortages would take place, but that technical solutions are possible. Under a warmer climate, wildfire vulnerability is heightened markedly in some areas--estimated increases in burned area by the end of the 21st Century exceed 100% of the historical area burned in much of the forested areas of Northern California Along California coast and estuaries, projected rise in mean sea level will accelerate flooding occurrences, prompting the need for better education and preparedness. Many policymakers and agency personnel in California are factoring in results from the assessments and recognize the need for a sustained assessment process. An ongoing challenge, of course, is to achieve more engagement with a broader community of decision makers, and notably with the private sector.

  12. The climatic change and its relationship with the production patterns and the energy consumption. Possibilities of the Nucleo energetics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montero C, M.E.

    2003-01-01

    Several indicators, causes, scenarios, and suggestions of adaptation and/or mitigation proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are described. The historical burning of fossil fuels for obtaining energy that has caused the discharge of greenhouse gases is discussed. Some examples are provided to show that the use of electricity in household tasks, industry and transportation is more economic than the direct use of fossil fuels and avoids the emission of great volumes of C - The safe operation of electric power plants using nuclear reactors is one of the possible forms to avoid the excessive emission of greenhouse gases. Two scenarios of the use of nuclear energy in the mitigation of climate changes are presented. (Author)

  13. Potentials and limitations of epistemic communities. An analysis of the World Climate Council and the Framework Convention on Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otto, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    In times of increasing global uncertainties, science takes a central position for policy decisions. According to Peter M. Haas, epistemic communities are able to influence the cooperative behavior of states through their consensual knowledge. This book critically examines this statement. As the case of the Framework Convention on Climate Change shows, the World Climate Council (IPCC) was not in a position to enforce its solution options in the intergovernmental negotiations, as these affected the individual convictions of the decision-makers. While Angela Merkel advocated an agreement, the US government under George W. Bush denied the existence of climate change. Decision-makers and their individual convictions must therefore have a greater significance in international politics. [de

  14. Constraining climate change with nuclear electricity and hydrogen (N + H2)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, A.I.; Duffey, R.B.

    2003-08-01

    Electricity produced from non-carbon-based sources is the only available technology to curb the rise of CO 2 levels in the Earth's atmosphere. While it is comparatively easy to replace carbon-fuelled electricity production with nuclear and other non-carbon sources, electricity will also have to penetrate deeply into transportation to achieve sufficient leverage to displace existing carbon-based energy use. The use of hydrogen, produced by water electrolysis, resolves the intractability of on-board storage of electricity, and provides a distributed source. This paper first reviews the scenarios for future energy use and supply created by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which are also representative of the main IAEA/NEA scenarios. It then discusses ways in which non-carbon-based energy can be applied to the transportation sector in the form of hydrogen. Finally, the potential effects of this application have been calculated for the key IPCC marker scenarios using the MAGICC-SCENGEN software package. A mechanism inherent in the model can provide quite accurate prediction of the effect of CO 2 concentration on global temperatures 20 years later. This provides a useful and new way to estimate the effects of delayed action to reduce CO 2 emissions. The IPCC's scenarios already include considerable expansion of energy from nuclear and other sustainable energy sources (e.g. wind, solar, biomass), but the extent is generally too small to substantially restrain the build-up of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere and to diminish the consequent projected rate of rise of average global temperatures. Much greater substitution is needed, and this paper argues that only nuclear power can provide the preponderant source of energy for a sufficient and sustainable switch away from carbon. Though the storage of spent-fuel wastes is now developed technology, waste disposal is often cited as a constraint on nuclear power. It is a strange objection given that

  15. Constraining climate change with nuclear electricity and hydrogen (N + H{sub 2})

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, A.I.; Duffey, R.B

    2003-08-01

    Electricity produced from non-carbon-based sources is the only available technology to curb the rise of CO{sub 2} levels in the Earth's atmosphere. While it is comparatively easy to replace carbon-fuelled electricity production with nuclear and other non-carbon sources, electricity will also have to penetrate deeply into transportation to achieve sufficient leverage to displace existing carbon-based energy use. The use of hydrogen, produced by water electrolysis, resolves the intractability of on-board storage of electricity, and provides a distributed source. This paper first reviews the scenarios for future energy use and supply created by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which are also representative of the main IAEA/NEA scenarios. It then discusses ways in which non-carbon-based energy can be applied to the transportation sector in the form of hydrogen. Finally, the potential effects of this application have been calculated for the key IPCC marker scenarios using the MAGICC-SCENGEN software package. A mechanism inherent in the model can provide quite accurate prediction of the effect of CO{sub 2} concentration on global temperatures 20 years later. This provides a useful and new way to estimate the effects of delayed action to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions. The IPCC's scenarios already include considerable expansion of energy from nuclear and other sustainable energy sources (e.g. wind, solar, biomass), but the extent is generally too small to substantially restrain the build-up of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere and to diminish the consequent projected rate of rise of average global temperatures. Much greater substitution is needed, and this paper argues that only nuclear power can provide the preponderant source of energy for a sufficient and sustainable switch away from carbon. Though the storage of spent-fuel wastes is now developed technology, waste disposal is often cited as a constraint on nuclear power. It is

  16. Constraining climate change with nuclear electricity and hydrogen (N + H{sub 2})

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, A I; Duffey, R B

    2003-08-01

    Electricity produced from non-carbon-based sources is the only available technology to curb the rise of CO{sub 2} levels in the Earth's atmosphere. While it is comparatively easy to replace carbon-fuelled electricity production with nuclear and other non-carbon sources, electricity will also have to penetrate deeply into transportation to achieve sufficient leverage to displace