Coffee Beverage Quality Assessment Based on ETA/CPTEC-HadCM3 Model (A1B-IPCC/SRES Scenario), Southeastern Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Giarolla, A.; Resende, N.; Chou, S. C.; Tavares, P. S.; Rodrigues, D. C.

2012-04-01

Environmental factors influence the coffee beverage quality and air temperature has a significant importance in this process. The grain maturation occurs very quickly in regions that present high temperatures and sometimes there is not enough time to complete all this phase adequately. In the other hand, with mild temperatures, the grain maturation occurs more slowly and it promotes a better quality beverage. The aim of this study was to assess the coffee beverage quality in the southeastern Brazil, based on climate projections using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model (HadCM3). The global model ensemble was run over the 21st century according to IPCC SRES, A1B emissions scenario. Each ensemble member presented different climate sensitivity in the analysis. The Eta-CPTEC-HadCM3 model was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over the period of 1961-90 to represent a baseline climate, and over the period of 2011-2100 to simulate possible future changes and the effects on the coffee beverage quality. A coffee beverage quality classification, which depends on the annual air temperature proposed by Bressani (2007) and also, a quality coffee beverage sensory classification, based on Camargo and Cortez (1998) were considered in this study. An evaluation of the systematic errors (BIAS) for each member for the period from 1961 to 1990 was made. The results presented by Eta/CPTEC-HadCM3 model indicated that in the case of an occurrence of A1B emission scenario, the coffee beverage quality could be affected in this region due to the fact that the flavor may become stronger and unpleasant caused by rising air temperatures. The BIAS evaluation and subsequent errors removal demonstrated improvement in the scenarios simulations. A short review concerning agronomic techniques to mitigate extreme meteorological events or global warming on coffee crop based on Camargo (2010) also is

What lessons from part 2 of the fifth UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laville, Bettina

2014-04-01

This paper analyses part 2 of the fifth UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report which describes with a detailed mapping the global warming impacts on species, oceans and economy. The IPCC proposes a geopolitical model of continuous and smooth adaptation to climate change which would imply a new cooperation-creating economy and would mitigate the risks of international conflicts. This new economy must rely on strong public organisations which implies a beforehand restoration of public accounts

Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Regulating knowledge monopolies: the case of the IPCC

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tol, R.S.J.

2011-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has a monopoly on the provision of climate policy advice at the international level and a strong market position in national policy advice. This may have been the intention of the founders of the IPCC. I argue that the IPCC has a natural monopoly, as a

IPCC Socio-Economic Baseline Dataset

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Socio-Economic Baseline Dataset consists of population, human development, economic, water resources, land...

Certainties and probabilities of the IPCC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

Based on an analysis of information about the climate evolution, simulations of a global warming and the snow coverage monitoring of Meteo-France, the IPCC presented its certainties and probabilities concerning the greenhouse effect. (A.L.B.)

Towards the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C

Science.gov (United States)

Masson-Delmotte, Valérie

2017-04-01

The Intergovernemental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the Paris Agreement to prepare a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. This special report is prepared under the scientific leadership of the co-chairs of the IPCC Working Groups I, II and III, and with operational support from the Technical Support Unit of Working Group I. It will consist of 5 chapters, providing (i) framing and context, (ii) exploring mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development, (iii) assessing impacts of 1.5°C global warming on natural and human systems, and (iv) options for strengthening and implementing the global response to the threat of climate change, with a final chapter on sustainable development, poverty eradication and reducing inequalities. The timeline of preparation of the report is extremely short, with four lead author meetings taking place from March 2017 to April 2018, and an approval session scheduled in September 2018. It is crucial that new knowledge is being produced and submitted / published in the literature in time for contributing new material to be assessed by the authors of the report (with deadlines in late fall 2017 and spring 2018). With respect to the additional impacts expected for 1.5°C warming compared to present-day, and impacts avoided with respect to larger warming, new research is expected to build on existing CMIP5 projections, including new information on regional change, methods to provide knowledge for the most vulnerable ecosystems and regions, but also information from ongoing projects aiming to produce large ensembles of simulations, and new simulations driven by low carbon pathways. This is important for identifying climate change

Global and regional climate change: new evidences between two IPCC reports

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mika, J. [Eszterhazy Karoly College, Budapest (Hungary). Dept. of Geography

2011-07-01

The climate of our planet has never been constant, but the recent changes are by two orders of magnitude faster than the natural changes since the appearance of anthropogenic effects. The discernable global warming started in the 19th century and after speeding up in the 20th century, it has reached about 0.8 K. This fact and the realization of the likely reasons for the changes, plus rapid development of computer technology have resulted in systematic investigations of climate science. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) finalized its Fourth Assessment Report in 2007. The present paper suveys some recent moments of global and regional climate change issued after the Report. Even the economic crisis was not strong enough to deflect the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing for more than one year. It tends to develop at the upper edge of the IPCC (2007) projection band of uncertainties. The part of the emitted carbon dioxide remaining in the atmosphere is increasing due to weakening of both the biospheric- and the oceanic sinks of this greenhouse gas. The new radiation balance estimations must admit the imbalance between the atmosphere and the oceans indicating the fact that the greenhouse warming definitely takes place. The year 2010 became most likely the warmest one on the global temperature record. The sea-level rise also follows the most rapid track among the foreseen scenarios. In the meantime modelling effort to better estimate regional features of the changes also develop in their full strength. The ENSEMBLES Project ended in December 2009 and published a lot of maps with 25 km model resolution. These results, however, do not show convergence in the estimations for many regions, including Central Europe.

Enhancing the contribution and role of practitioner knowledge in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Working Group (WG II process: Insights from UK workshops

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Candice Howarth

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This perspective critically assesses how the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC could facilitate a closer alignment of its activities and include lessons drawn from the policy and decision-making communities working on the ground at the regional/local levels. The objective is to facilitate practitioner input into the detailed choice of topics and priorities for IPCC review and in the conclusions drawn (we define practitioners as those engaged in the development and application of practical responses to climate change on the ground. By means of a series of workshops with academics, policy officials and decision-makers in the United Kingdom, the research reported here illuminates how the IPCC’s Working Group II (WGII has been used in the past to inform decision-making and how practitioner responses to climate change could better inform the IPCC process in the future. In particular, we recommend three key actions. Firstly that IPCC WGII should incorporate more practitioners as authors to improve the awareness and understanding amongst the writing teams of the nature and detail of decisions being made in response to climate change; secondly a practitioner-led IPCC Special Report should be commissioned on good-practice responses to climate change; and thirdly a new body should be created, attached to the IPCC, to synthesise and report on good practice on climate response strategies in a timely manner. By adopting these recommendations, the IPCC could become more directly useful to decision-makers working on adaptation at the national, regional and local levels and enable more actionable decision-making.

Climate change. Important findings from the 4. fact finding report of the intergovernmental commission on climate change of the United Nations (IPCC); Klimaaenderung. Wichtige Erkentnisse aus dem 4. Sachstandsbericht des Zwischenstaatlichen Ausschusses fuer Klimaaenderungen der Vereinten Nationen (IPCC)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maeder, Claudia

2009-12-19

The Report covers the following topics: 1. anthropogenic climate change - since when do we know about it? 2. IPCC - the intergovernmental commission for climate change. 3. Assignable causes for climate change: changes of incoming solar radiation, changes of the reflected solar radiation, change of the heat radiation lost into space, aerosols, internal variability of the climate system. 4. Historical climate changes in long periods. 5. Development of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. 6. Observed climate changes. 7. Projections of future climate changes. 8. Consequences of climate change: consequences of the actual temperature increase, possible future consequences, freshwater resources and their management, ecosystems, agricultural production, coastal regions and low lying areas.

Evaluation of an IPCC climate report. An analysis of conclusions on the possible regional consequences of climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

This report contains the results of a study of the reliability of the regional chapters (H9-16) of the contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Climate Report of the IPCC (the sub report on consequences, adaptation and vulnerability). Moreover an assessment was made of the possible consequences of errors for the conclusions in the high level summaries of that report. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency did not detect any errors that may undermine the main conclusions of the scientific UN Climate Panel IPCC of 2007 on the possible future consequences of climate change. However, some of the substantiations of the conclusions lack clarity. To prevent lack of clarity and inaccuracies the IPCC needs to invest more in quality checks. [nl

Linguistic analysis of IPCC summaries for policymakers and associated coverage

Science.gov (United States)

Barkemeyer, Ralf; Dessai, Suraje; Monge-Sanz, Beatriz; Renzi, Barbara Gabriella; Napolitano, Giulio

2016-03-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policymakers (SPM) is the most widely read section of IPCC reports and the main springboard for the communication of its assessment reports. Previous studies have shown that communicating IPCC findings to a variety of scientific and non-scientific audiences presents significant challenges to both the IPCC and the mass media. Here, we employ widely established sentiment analysis tools and readability metrics to explore the extent to which information published by the IPCC differs from the presentation of respective findings in the popular and scientific media between 1990 and 2014. IPCC SPMs clearly stand out in terms of low readability, which has remained relatively constant despite the IPCC’s efforts to consolidate and readjust its communications policy. In contrast, scientific and quality newspaper coverage has become increasingly readable and emotive. Our findings reveal easy gains that could be achieved in making SPMs more accessible for non-scientific audiences.

Treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC: a philosophical analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Jebeile, J.; Drouet, I.

2014-12-01

The IPCC produces scientific reports out of findings on climate and climate change. Because the findings are uncertain in many respects, the production of reports requires aggregating assessments of uncertainties of different kinds. This difficult task is currently regulated by the Guidance note for lead authors of the IPCC fifth assessment report on consistent treatment of uncertainties. The note recommends that two metrics—i.e. confidence and likelihood— be used for communicating the degree of certainty in findings. Confidence is expressed qualitatively "based on the type, amount, quality, and consistency of evidence […] and the degree of agreement", while likelihood is expressed probabilistically "based on statistical analysis of observations or model results, or expert judgment". Therefore, depending on the evidence evaluated, authors have the choice to present either an assigned level of confidence or a quantified measure of likelihood. But aggregating assessments of uncertainties of these two different kinds express distinct and conflicting methodologies. So the question arises whether the treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC is rationally justified. In order to answer the question, it is worth comparing the IPCC procedures with the formal normative theories of epistemic rationality which have been developed by philosophers. These theories—which include contributions to the philosophy of probability and to bayesian probabilistic confirmation theory—are relevant for our purpose because they are commonly used to assess the rationality of common collective jugement formation based on uncertain knowledge. In this paper we make the comparison and pursue the following objectives: i/we determine whether the IPCC confidence and likelihood can be compared with the notions of uncertainty targeted by or underlying the formal normative theories of epistemic rationality; ii/we investigate whether the formal normative theories of epistemic rationality justify

IPCC SRES revisited: a response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Gruebler, A.; Gaffin, S.

2003-01-01

This article gives details of the response to the criticism of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and of some aspects of IPCC assessments. The criticism claims that market exchange rates (MER) were used instead of purchasing power parities (PPP) and that scenarios using Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in developing regions were flawed. Points raised in the response included that scenarios of GDP growth are typically expressed as MER, that the IPCC scenarios did include PPP-based scenarios, and that long-term emissions are based on more than just economic growth

IPCC. 4. climate assessment report, 2007; GIEC. 4. rapport d'evaluation du climat, 2007

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-07-01

The mission and challenge of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC, GIEC in French) is to evaluate, synthesize and make available the sum of scientific and economic information of the complex domain of climatic change, and in addition to make the results of these works accepted by government representatives of 192 states. This document makes a brief synthesis in three parts of the 4. assessment report of the IPCC: 1 - physical scientific bases of climatic change: characteristic of the phenomenon, greenhouse gas emissions trend, already observed effects, forecasts of climate models; 2 - impacts, adaptations and vulnerabilities of climatic change: types of future impacts, impacts per sector, regional impacts, limits of ecosystems adaptation; 3 - mitigation of climatic changes: past emissions and future trends, possible mitigation actions and cost, possible political levers for emissions abatement. A last part introduces the French researchers involved in IPCC's works. (J.S.)

Tracking climate change. The IPCC in Four Questions. The Hidden Face of Climate Research. Climate Change: Facts and Uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beriot, Nicolas; Jouzel, Jean; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Braconnot, Pascale; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Le Treut, Herve; Pachauri, Rajendra; Cazenave, Anny; Planton, Serge; Feral, Jean-Pierre

2014-01-01

Scientists and government delegations from around the world gathered in Stockholm (Sweden) in September 2013 to approve the first volume of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This document reviews existing scientific knowledge on the Earth's climate. How was it prepared? How do scientists conduct research on climate change? What do they know for certain? What remains to be discovered?

Climate Change Mitigation in a Sustainable World - Findings of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sims, R. E. H.

2007-01-01

The 4th Assessment Report on climate change of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) has recently been completed. The fi rst report in the IPCC 4th Assessment series by Working Group I outlined the latest knowledge on Climate Science. The second by Working Group 2 covered the possibilities for Adaptation of ecosystems, glaciers preceding, sea level rising, droughts etc in various regions. This paper is based on the findings of Working Group III as presented in the recently published report Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. The 27 paragraph Summary for Policy Makers was approved sentence by sentence over 4 days in May 2007 by 120 government delegations in Bangkok, Thailand. The three short Summaries for Policy Makers (SPM), Synthesis report, and the three full reports can be found at www.ipcc.ch. In addition the short Synthesis Report across all three working groups is soon to be released. The report on Mitigation attempted to compile the latest scientific knowledge relating to low-carbon emitting technologies; assessed their costs and potentials for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission avoidance; evaluated their long term prospects out to 2100 for stabilising atmospheric GHGs; provided a detailed list of policy options; and discussed the opportunities for sustainable development and equity linked with GHG abatement. Over the 3 year writing and review process, the author of this paper was the co-ordinating lead author of the writing team for the Working Group III chapter on Energy Supply. Of the 13 chapters, this one received the greatest attention with over 5000 review comments that were each responded to, and with the sections on nuclear and renewable energy receiving a major share of them. Since the 3rd Assessment Report (TAR) was published in 2001, the over-arching message now being delivered by Working Group III is a stronger but positive one: Action is required. The situation is urgent - but not beyond repair. Many energy

Noaa contributions to the 1995 IPCC assessments: A summary of the current and future activities of the intergovernmental panel on climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Albritton, D.; Levy, J.

1993-05-01

Contents: introduction -the IPCC and NOAA; NOAA contributions to the IPCC 1995 science assessment; NOAA contributions to the IPCC 1995 impacts, adaptation, and mitigation assessment; NOAA contributions to the 1995 IPCC economics and greenhouse-gas scenario assessment

Projections of summertime ozone concentration over East Asia under multiple IPCC SRES emission scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jae-Bum; Cha, Jun-Seok; Hong, Sung-Chul; Choi, Jin-Young; Myoung, Ji-Su; Park, Rokjin J.; Woo, Jung-Hun; Ho, Changhoi; Han, Jin-Seok; Song, Chang-Keun

2015-04-01

We have developed the Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System (ICAMS) through the one-way nesting of global-regional models to examine the changes in the surface ozone concentrations over East Asia under future climate scenarios. Model simulations have been conducted for the present period of 1996-2005 to evaluate the performance of ICAMS. The simulated surface ozone concentrations reproduced the observed monthly mean concentrations at sites in East Asia with high R2 values (0.4-0.9), indicating a successful simulation to capture both spatial and temporal variability. We then performed several model simulations with the six IPCC SRES scenarios (A2, A1B, A1FI, A1T, B1, and B2) for the next three periods, 2016-2025 (the 2020s), 2046-2055 (the 2050s), and 2091-2100 (the 2090s). The model results show that the projected changes of the annual daily mean maximum eight-hour (DM8H) surface ozone concentrations in summertime for East Asia are in the range of 2-8 ppb, -3 to 8 ppb, and -7 to 9 ppb for the 2020s, the 2050s, and the 2090s, respectively, and are primarily determined based on the emission changes of NOx and NMVOC. The maximum increases in the annual DM8H surface ozone and high-ozone events occur in the 2020s for all scenarios except for A2, implying that the air quality over East Asia is likely to get worse in the near future period (the 2020s) than in the far future periods (the 2050s and the 2090s). The changes in the future environment based on IPCC SRES scenarios would also influence the change in the occurrences of high-concentrations events more greatly than that of the annual DM8H surface ozone concentrations. Sensitivity simulations show that the emissions increase is the key factor in determining future regional surface ozone concentrations in the case of a developing country, China, whereas a developed country, Japan would be influenced more greatly by effects of the regional climate change than the increase in emissions.

Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ji-Woo Lee

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM, namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs, Regional Model Program (RMP. The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4. The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070 simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.

Climate in Peril. A popular guide to the latest IPCC reports

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2009-07-01

In 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shared the Nobel Peace Prize with former US Vice President Al Gore for their work to provide policy makers and the general public around the world with the best possible science base for understanding and combating the increasing threat from climate change. But as the messages from the scientists are becoming increasingly explicit, the gap between the need for action they project and the climate policy the world leaders put in place is steadily increasing. One illustration is the trend in emissions of greenhouse gases. According to the IPCC global emissions would need to peak between 2000 and 2015 in order to limit the global temperature increase to between 2 and 2.4 degrees C compared to pre-industrial times. In 2007, when ideally the emissions should have peaked, the world instead experienced a new record in annual emission increase. For each day we fail to twist development towards a low-carbon society, the damage to the world's ecosystems become more severe, and the costs of mitigation and adaptation increases. The main purpose of this short guide is to help bridging the gap between science and policy and to increase public awareness about the urgency of action to combat climate change and its impacts. This booklet is intended for those who do not have the time - and may not have the scientific expertise - to read the entire Synthesis Report from the IPCC. (Author)

Vulnerability of Australian agriculture to climate change: sequencing impacts over IPCC trajectories for adaptation planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mallawaarachchi, Thilak; Hodges, Andrew; Wicks, Santhi; Kokic, Phil; Nelson, Rohan

2007-01-01

Full text: Full text: Agricultural systems are susceptible to adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. While the degree of vulnerability is a function of the magnitude and the rate of variation in climate exposure, agricultural systems with a stronger adaptive capacity are likely to be less vulnerable to climate change. In preparing the agriculture sector for ongoing climate change, adaptation planning to moderate potential impacts and to take advantage of opportunities, has emerged as an effective strategic response. Global climate change scenarios developed by the IPCC indicate that changes in climate may alter the production potential of agriculture across many regions. Wide regional variability in productivity, extensive land use and the dominance in rural economies across Australia could expose agriculture to considerable risks from climate change impacts. In many cases these risks could cascade across a range of sectors and vary overtime, reflecting the capacity of exposed enterprises to adapt to a changing climate by taking advantage of opportunities. Effective planning of adaptation responses will require integrated assessments of regional vulnerability to climate risks over IPCC projection trajectories. In this paper, we present a method for estimating and mapping vulnerability to climate risks at the regional level, and apply this method to examine the vulnerability of Australian agriculture to climate change, focusing on case studies drawn from dryland broadacre and irrigated horticulture industries. In developing a conceptual framework for assessing vulnerability and adaptation options, the paper provides a review of key approaches used globally for the assessment of vulnerability to climate change in agriculture. It presents an approach to link global climate change scenario-based projections for assessing economic impacts on industries and regions through a process that maps climate risks to factors contributing

Global Warming Induced Changes in Rainfall Characteristics in IPCC AR5 Models

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, Jenny, H.-T.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2012-01-01

Changes in rainfall characteristic induced by global warming are examined from outputs of IPCC AR5 models. Different scenarios of climate warming including a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), a medium mitigation scenario (RCP 4.5), and 1% per year CO2 increase are compared to 20th century simulations (historical). Results show that even though the spatial distribution of monthly rainfall anomalies vary greatly among models, the ensemble mean from a sizable sample (about 10) of AR5 models show a robust signal attributable to GHG warming featuring a shift in the global rainfall probability distribution function (PDF) with significant increase (>100%) in very heavy rain, reduction (10-20% ) in moderate rain and increase in light to very light rains. Changes in extreme rainfall as a function of seasons and latitudes are also examined, and are similar to the non-seasonal stratified data, but with more specific spatial dependence. These results are consistent from TRMM and GPCP rainfall observations suggesting that extreme rainfall events are occurring more frequently with wet areas getting wetter and dry-area-getting drier in a GHG induced warmer climate.

Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: A review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond

OpenAIRE

Lisa V. Alexander

2016-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) first attempted a global assessment of long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in its Third Assessment Report in 2001. While data quality and coverage were limited, the report still concluded that heavy precipitation events had increased and that there had been, very likely, a reduction in the frequency of extreme low temperatures and increases in the frequency of extreme high temperatures. That overall assessment had ch...

Possible future climates. The IPCC-scenarios simulated by dialogue

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoekstra, J [KEMA-KES, Arnheim (Netherlands)

1996-12-31

Global warming is an environmental problem that increasingly attracts the attention of governments, (inter)national organizations and the general public. Policymakers that want to attack this problem need to understand the causes and effects of all related aspects. For this reason integrated assessment tools are developed that allow policymakers to analyze and evaluate climate change scenarios. Dialogue is such an integrated assessment tool. This article presents the results of Dialogue when the socio-economic parameters of the six well-known IPCC-scenarios, IS92a-f (IPCC 1992) are taken as a point of departure. Using as input, variables as population growth and the energy intensity of an economy, Dialogue goes through a chain of processes and finally determines climatic changes in temperature and precipitation

Possible future climates. The IPCC-scenarios simulated by dialogue

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoekstra, J. [KEMA-KES, Arnheim (Netherlands)

1995-12-31

Global warming is an environmental problem that increasingly attracts the attention of governments, (inter)national organizations and the general public. Policymakers that want to attack this problem need to understand the causes and effects of all related aspects. For this reason integrated assessment tools are developed that allow policymakers to analyze and evaluate climate change scenarios. Dialogue is such an integrated assessment tool. This article presents the results of Dialogue when the socio-economic parameters of the six well-known IPCC-scenarios, IS92a-f (IPCC 1992) are taken as a point of departure. Using as input, variables as population growth and the energy intensity of an economy, Dialogue goes through a chain of processes and finally determines climatic changes in temperature and precipitation

A Carbon Cycle Science Update Since IPCC AR-4

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dolman, A.J.; Werf, van der G.R.; Molen, van der M.K.; Ganssen, G.; Erisman, J.W.; Strengers, B.

2010-01-01

We review important advances in our understanding of the global carbon cycle since the publication of the IPCC AR4. We conclude that: the anthropogenic emissions of CO2 due to fossil fuel burning have increased up through 2008 at a rate near to the high end of the IPCC emission scenarios; there are

Greenhouse gas emissions from managed peat soils: is the IPCC reporting guidance realistic?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Couwenberg

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Drainage of peatlands leads to the decomposition of peat, resulting in substantial losses of carbon and nitrogen to the atmosphere. The conservation and restoration of peatlands can provide a major contribution to the mitigation of climate change. Improvements to guidance and capacity for reporting of greenhouse gas emissions from peatlands will be valuable in the context of the current negotiations towards a post-2012 climate agreement. This article evaluates IPCC approaches to greenhouse gas emissions from managed organic (peat soils and presents a summary table comparing IPCC default values with best estimates based on recent literature. Inconsistencies are pointed out with regard to the IPCC definitions of organic soils and climate zones. The 2006 IPCC Guidelines use a definition of organic soil that is not totally consistent with FAO definitions, use climate zones that are not fully compatible, present default CO2 values that are substantially (often an order of magnitude too low, and present a default N2O value for tropical cropland that is also an order of magnitude too low. An update of IPCC default values is desirable. The IPCC Emission Factor Database offers a platform for establishing more accurate emission factors, but so far contains little information about emissions from peat soils.

Trends in marine climate change research in the Nordic region since the first IPCC report

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Martin Wæver; Kokkalis, Alexandros; Bardarson, H.

2016-01-01

Oceans are exposed to anthropogenic climate change shifting marine systems toward potential instabilities. The physical, biological and social implications of such shifts can be assessed within individual scientific disciplines, but can only be fully understood by combining knowledge and expertise...... across disciplines. For climate change related problems these research directions have been well-established since the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990, however it is not well-documented to what extent these directions are reflected in published research. Focusing on the Nordic region, we...... evaluated the development of climate change related marine science by quantifying trends in number of publications, disciplinarity, and scientific focus of 1362 research articles published between 1990 and 2011. Our analysis showed a faster increase in publications within climate change related marine...

Climate experts. The IPCC in Four Questions. Behind-the-scene of Climate Research. Climate Change: evidences and Uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beriot, Nicolas; Jouzel, Jean; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Braconnot, Pascale; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Le Treut, Herve; Pachauri, Rajendra; Cazenave, Anny; Planton, Serge; Feral, Jean-Pierre

2013-01-01

Scientists and government delegations from around the world gathered in Stockholm (Sweden) in September 2013 to approve the first volume of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This document reviews existing scientific knowledge on the Earth's climate. How was it prepared? How do scientists conduct research on climate change? What do they know for certain? What remains to be discovered?

Why We Don't Collaborate in Response to Climate Change: The Knowledge Deficit, Co-Production, and the Future of the IPCC.

Science.gov (United States)

Cook, B. R.; Overpeck, J. T.

2014-12-01

Scientific knowledge production is based on recognizing and filling knowledge deficits or 'gaps' in understanding, but for climate adaptation and mitigation, the applicability of this approach is questionable. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) mandate is an example of this type of 'gap filling,' in which the elimination of uncertainties is presumed to enable rational decision making for individuals and rational governance for societies. Presumed knowledge deficits, though, are unsuited to controversial problems with social, cultural, and economic dimensions; likewise, communication to educate is an ineffective means of inciting behavioural change. An alternative is needed, particularly given the economic, social, and political scale that action on climate change requires. We review the 'deficit-education framing' and show how it maintains a wedge between those affected and those whose knowledge is required. We then review co-production to show how natural and social scientists, as well as the IPCC, might more effectively proceed.

The energy policy relevance of the 2014 IPCC Working Group III report on the macro-economics of mitigating climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosen, Richard A.; Guenther, Edeltraud

2016-01-01

Research which attempted to determine the macroeconomic importance of mitigating climate change through 2100 was presented primarily in Chapter 6 of the 2014 IPCC Working Group III report. Some of the findings of this chapter were then summarized in the Summary for Policy Makers (SPMs) of both the Synthesis Report, and the WGIII report. Unfortunately, these SPMs omitted key aspects of what the overall macroeconomic results for the costs and benefits of mitigating climate change actually did and did not include, how they were produced, and a careful assessment of their uncertainty and scientific validity. Yet, many of the major omissions were acknowledged deep in the text of Chapter 6, but were not revealed to the public. We conclude, therefore, that neither of these SPMs was useful for energy policy makers and energy managers, and they were misleading due to their many key omissions. Finally, we recommend several improvements that can be made to integrated assessment modeling methodologies so that the macroeconomic analysis of mitigating climate change resulting from the use of such models can be more relevant and useful to energy policy makers in the future, and can be communicated to them better. - Highlights: •The 2014 IPCC Working Group III Report has major omissions in its economic analysis. •Many well-known benefits of mitigation are not included in its economic results. •The Summary for Policy Makers is not very useful for energy policy decision makers. •The upcoming Sixth IPCC WGIII analysis should be structured quite differently.

Twitter Campaigns Around the Fifth IPCC Report: Campaign Spreading, Shared Hashtags, and Separate Communities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Holmberg, K.; Hellsten, I.

2016-01-01

In this article, we analyzed campaigning on Twitter around the publication of the fifth Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group 1 report in September, 2013. In particular, we analyzed how participation in a specific campaign and use of hashtags connected to the campaign

Influences of Regional Climate Change on Air Quality Across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC AR5 Simulations. Chapter 2

Science.gov (United States)

Nolte, Christopher; Otte, Tanya; Pinder, Robert; Bowden, J.; Herwehe, J.; Faluvegi, Gregory; Shindell, Drew

2013-01-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the global climate models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture regional-scale changes in temperatures and precipitation. We use a regional climate model (RCM) to dynamically downscale the GCM's large-scale signal to investigate the changes in regional and local extremes of temperature and precipitation that may result from a changing climate. In this paper, we show preliminary results from downscaling the NASA/GISS ModelE IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0 scenario. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices (1995-2005 and 2025-2035) and illustrate potential changes in regional climate for the continental U.S. that are projected by ModelE and WRF under RCP6.0. The regional climate change scenario is further processed using the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system to explore influences of regional climate change on air quality.

A comparative analysis of methodology for inventory of greenhouse gases emissions - IPCC and CORINAIR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vasilev, Kh.

1998-01-01

The inventory of greenhouse gases (GHG) is performed by two accepted methods - CORINAIR (of EU) and IPCC (of UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes). The first one is applied only in European countries, the second is conformable to GHG emissions from all over the world. The versions IPCC-95 and CORINAIR94 are compared from theoretical and methodological point of view. In Bulgaria the version CORINAIR95 is not applied yet and the inventory analysis for 1994 uses CORINAIR90. The emissions of main GHG and gases-precursors are compared. The main elements of inventory are analyzed. The values recommended by CORINAIR94 are taken into account. A table for accordance between the two methods is used. The differences concerning transport vehicles are taken into account also. Differences between the two methods are noticed in the following directions: nomenclature of the activities emitting GHG; organization of the inventory guides; kind of the activities and technologies included. The qualitative comparison are done for energy sector and for industry separately. The results show too big differences in the volume of the emitted GHG and the reasons could be classified as methodological ones and differences in the kind and values of the emission coefficients. For their determining standard values for Eastern Europe from IPCC guide have been applied as well as data from experimental investigations. Respectively, in the method CORINAIR emission coefficients CORINAIR90 are used. The differences between the emission coefficients determined in the two methods are as big as twice or even more for CO at solid fuels, i.g. at energy production; as big as three times at NO x and up to twenty times at methane also at solid fuels. The two methods do not read the emissions of gases-precursors at some industrial processes. This disadvantage is overcome at IPCC96 and it is necessary to complement the emission coefficients in the data base, especially for gases-precursors regarding the

A brief history of adaptation: conceptual evolution across the IPCC reports (1990-2014)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simonet, Guillaume

2015-01-01

In the past decade, work on the concepts of vulnerability, resilience and adaptation became central in climate change literature. At the same time a growing number of studies have focussed on the influence of cognitive factors on decision-making processes, such as interpreting elusive concepts such as adaptation. Comprehension of adaptation has evolved considerably since its recognition as a response to climate change in the 90's by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently protecting systems from weather events (the 'adjustment adaptation' approach) is still the prevailing view in climate policies. Nevertheless, a shift toward a 'transformation adaptation' approach is being observed. This position would take better account of the complexity of existing systems and allow reexamining their mechanisms (institutional, technical, financial). This paper aims to analyze conceptual advances on adaptation across the five IPCC reports from 1990 to 2014. This contribution attempts to show that the prominence given to adaptation in the latest report (2014) reflects the cognitive difficulty of conceiving this concept, responds to the growing demand to facilitate its operationalization and confirms its relevance for a better understanding of the underlying complexity of climate change and the global environmental change issue. Pursuing reflection on the adaptation concept should certainly contribute to the emergence of a promising and interdisciplinary field of research

Finding facts for policy makers. IPCC's Special Reports and the Third Assessment Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leemans, R.; Verbeek, K.

2000-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an international body of the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) and UNEP (United Nations Environmental Programme) that publishes authoritative reports on the scientific, technical and socio-economic aspects of climate change and climate policy. The knowledge contained in the IPCC reports forms the basis for the development of global climate policy by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The three volumes of the Third Assessment Report will be published early in 2001, shortly after Cop6 (Sixth Convention of Parties, The Hague, Netherlands, November 2000). This broadly supported summary of scientific insights will be important for the further substantiation of climate policy

IPCC Climate Change 2013: Mitigation of Climate Change - Key Findings and Lessons Learned

Science.gov (United States)

Sokona, Youba

2014-05-01

The Working Group III contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Mitigation of Climate Change, examines the results of scientific research about mitigation, with special attention on how knowledge has evolved since the Fourth Assessment Report published in 2007. Throughout, the focus is on the implications of its findings for policy, without being prescriptive about the particular policies that governments and other important participants in the policy process should adopt. The report begins with a framing of important concepts and methods that help to contextualize the findings presented throughout the assessment. The valuation of risks and uncertainties, ethical concepts and the context of sustainable development and equity are among the guiding principles for the assessment of mitigation strategies. The report highlights past trends in stocks and flows of greenhouse gases and the factors that drive emissions at global, regional, and sectoral scales including economic growth, technology or population changes. It provides analyses of the technological, economic and institutional requirements of long-term mitigation scenarios and details on mitigation measures and policies that are applied in different economic sectors and human settlements. It then discusses interactions of mitigation policies and different policy instrument types at national, regional and global governance levels and between economic sectors, The Working Group III report comprises 16 chapters and in assembling this assessment authors were guided by the principles of the IPCC mandate: to be explicit about mitigation options, to be explicit about their costs and about their risks and opportunities vis-à-vis other development priorities, and to be explicit about the underlying criteria, concepts, and methods for evaluating alternative policies.

Academies of science supports the IPCC; Vitenskapsakademier stoetter FNs klimapanel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seip, Hans Martin

2011-07-01

In 2010, a number of science academies considered how serious climate change is and what should be done. The main conclusions are highly coherent and in line with the IPCC. The effects of climate change will include: rise in sea level, health - because of large variations in temperature; ocean acidification, biological systems will change and the economic skewed distribution in the world will increase - the poor getting poorer. (AG)

Bad weather for the IPCC: from Nobel price to affairs, rise and fall of climate experts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dubuis, E.

2010-01-01

The intergovernmental panel on climate change, IPCC, or GIEC in French, has become in 20 years one of the most influent organization in the world. Awarded by the Nobel price of peace in 2007, this expression of the United Nations has succeeded in setting the fight against global warming at the top of the international political agenda, in particular during the 2009 Copenhagen meeting. What are the keys of this success? The IPCC has announced a global warming with disastrous effects, where floods would combine with dryness periods, epidemics and other natural disasters. Such a dark picture cannot leave anyone indifferent and allows the IPCC to encourage the humanity to drastically change its consumption habits and limit its way of life. However, to raise such fears and ask for such sacrifices, an organization like the IPCC must be irreproachable. And here is the problem reported in this book: the IPCC has shown its weaknesses, has made mistakes, has used unappropriated methods and miscasting personnel, has been uncapable to explain the complexness of the climate question and has felt reticent about the recognition of its mistakes. Revealed between fall 2009 and winter 2010, these failures have shaken the credibility of the organization to such a point that the UN requested an expertise to judge its own experts. (J.S.)

Science-policy interaction in the global greenhouse. Institutional design and institutional performance in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Skodvin, Tora

1999-08-01

This paper explores the science-policy interaction and the extent to which and how institutional arrangements may be used as instruments for enhancing the effectiveness of the dialog. The first part develops the theory. The point of departure of the analysis is the internal dynamics of science and politics in their pure forms and the nature of the dynamics that are generated when these two distinct systems of behaviour meet. On this basis, then, the question of which functions the institutional apparatus should be able to serve in order to enhance the effectiveness of science-policy dialogue is addressed. This approach is then applied to an empirical case study of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) from its establishment in 1988 to the provision of the Second IPCC Assessment Report in 1995. 53 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

CO2 emission accounting for the non-energy use of fossil fuels in Italy. A comparison between NEAT model and the IPCC approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Motta, S. La; Santino, D.; Ancona, P.; Weiss, M.

2005-01-01

In this article, we apply the Non-energy Use Emission Accounting Tables (NEAT) model as an independent mass balance approach to Italy in order to estimate total non-energy use and related CO 2 emissions for the year 1990 and the period 1995-1997. The model results are compared with official data according to the IPCC Reference Approach (IPCC-RA) and the IPCC Sectoral Approach (IPCC-SA) of the Italian National Inventory Report. The NEAT results for total non-energy use range between 25.0 and 27.6Mt CO 2 equivalents and are therefore clearly below the values used in the IPCC-RA (31.3-32.8Mt CO 2 equivalents). Our research revealed inconsistencies in the IPCC-RA regarding feedstock consumption (1) of steam crackers in 1990 and (2) for ammonia production in the period of 1995-1997. The CO 2 emissions as determined with NEAT correspond well with official IPCC-SA values for most individual industrial processes. However, the total industrial process emissions are underestimated in the IPCC-SA because CO 2 released from methanol and carbon black production is not taken into account. Moreover, we calculate with NEAT 14-61% higher CO 2 emissions from 'solvent and other product use' than the IPCC-SA. These deviations are caused to some extent by the fact that the IPCC-SA does not account for CO 2 emissions from the consumption of lubricants. In total, we therefore conclude that emissions from the non-energy use of fossil fuels are currently underestimated in the IPCC-SA. Further research is recommended (1) to improve the general accuracy of emission estimates for 'solvent and other product use' in the IPCC-SA and (2) to introduce a definition for non-energy use, which allocates feedstock consumption consistently to either energy use or non-energy use in the IPCC-SA and the IPCC-RA of the Italian National Inventory Report

Reconstruction of the boundary between climate science and politics: the IPCC in the Japanese mass media, 1988-2007.

Science.gov (United States)

Asayama, Shinichiro; Ishii, Atsushi

2014-02-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) plays a significant role in bridging the boundary between climate science and politics. Media coverage is crucial for understanding how climate science is communicated and embedded in society. This study analyzes the discursive construction of the IPCC in three Japanese newspapers from 1988 to 2007 in terms of the science-politics boundary. The results show media discourses engaged in boundary-work which rhetorically separated science and politics, and constructed the iconic image of the IPCC as a pure scientific authority. In the linkages between the global and national arenas of climate change, the media "domesticate" the issue, translating the global nature of climate change into a discourse that suits the national context. We argue that the Japanese media's boundary-work is part of the media domestication that reconstructed the boundary between climate science and politics reflecting the Japanese context.

Impact of Climate Change on India's Monsoonal Climate: Present ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Expected Future Changes in Rainfall and Temperature over India under IPCC SRES A1B GHG Scenarios · Expected Future Change in Monsoon Rainfall and Annual Surface Temp for 2020's, 2050's and 2080's · Likely Future Paradox of Monsoon-ENSO Links · High-Resolution Regional Climate Change Scenarios.

Exploring the science–policy interface on climate change: The role of the IPCC in informing local decision-making in the UK

OpenAIRE

Candice Howarth; James Painter

2016-01-01

Building on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) review of\\ud how to make its Assessment Reports (ARs) more accessible in the future, the research\\ud reported here assesses the extent to which the ARs are a useful tool through which scientific\\ud advice informs local decision-making on climate change in the United Kingdom. Results from\\ud interviews with local policy representatives and three workshops with UK academics, practitioners\\ud and local decision makers are present...

An inventory of nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture in the UK using the IPCC methodology: emission estimate, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, L.; Armstrong Brown, S.; Jarvis, S. C.; Syed, B.; Goulding, K. W. T.; Phillips, V. R.; Sneath, R. W.; Pain, B. F.

Nitrous oxide emission from UK agriculture was estimated, using the IPCC default values of all emission factors and parameters, to be 87 Gg N 2O-N in both 1990 and 1995. This estimate was shown, however, to have an overall uncertainty of 62%. The largest component of the emission (54%) was from the direct (soil) sector. Two of the three emission factors applied within the soil sector, EF1 (direct emission from soil) and EF3 PRP (emission from pasture range and paddock) were amongst the most influential on the total estimate, producing a ±31 and +11% to -17% change in emissions, respectively, when varied through the IPCC range from the default value. The indirect sector (from leached N and deposited ammonia) contributed 29% of the total emission, and had the largest uncertainty (126%). The factors determining the fraction of N leached (Frac LEACH) and emissions from it (EF5), were the two most influential. These parameters are poorly specified and there is great potential to improve the emission estimate for this component. Use of mathematical models (NCYCLE and SUNDIAL) to predict Frac LEACH suggested that the IPCC default value for this parameter may be too high for most situations in the UK. Comparison with other UK-derived inventories suggests that the IPCC methodology may overestimate emission. Although the IPCC approach includes additional components to the other inventories (most notably emission from indirect sources), estimates for the common components (i.e. fertiliser and animals), and emission factors used, are higher than those of other inventories. Whilst it is recognised that the IPCC approach is generalised in order to allow widespread applicability, sufficient data are available to specify at least two of the most influential parameters, i.e. EF1 and Frac LEACH, more accurately, and so provide an improved estimate of nitrous oxide emissions from UK agriculture.

Analyse af IPCC delrapport 2 - Effekter, klimatilpasning og sårbarhed

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Grindsted, Aslak

. Med afsæt i denne delrapport er der udarbejdet en dansk analyse, der nærmere beskriver effekterne af et ændret klima i Danmark suppleret med den seneste danske forskning udført af det danske Center for Regional Changes in the Earth System (CRES). ”Analyse af IPCC delrapport 2 – Effekter...

Modeling the Projected Changes of River Flow in Central Vietnam under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tuan B. Le

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Recent studies by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC indicate that Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change. The variability of climate in this region, characterized by large fluctuations in precipitation and temperature, has caused significant changes in surface water resources. This study aims to project the impact of climate change on the seasonal availability of surface water of the Huong River in Central Vietnam in the twenty-first century through hydrologic simulations driven by climate model projections. To calibrate and validate the hydrologic model, the model was forced by the rain gage-based gridded Asian Precipitation–Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APHRODITE V1003R1 Monsoon Asia precipitation data along with observed temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation data from local weather stations. The simulated discharge was compared to observations for the period from 1951 until present. Three Global Climate Models (GCMs ECHAM5-OM, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 integrated into Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG stochastic weather generator were run for three IPCC–Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC-SRES emissions scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 to simulate future climate conditions. The hydrologic model simulated the Huong River discharge for each IPCC-SRES scenario. Simulation results under the three GCMs generally indicate an increase in summer and fall river discharge during the twenty-first century in A2 and B1 scenarios. For A1B scenario, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 models project a decrease in river discharge from present to the 2051–2080 period and then increase until the 2071–2100 period while ECHAM5-OM model produces opposite projection that discharge will increase until the 2051–2080 period and then decrease for the rest of the century. Water management

U.S. ozone air quality under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions.

Science.gov (United States)

Racherla, Pavan N; Adams, Peter J

2009-02-01

We examined future ozone (O3) air quality in the United States (U.S.) under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions worldwide by performing global climate-chemistry simulations, utilizing various combinations of present (1990s) and future (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 2050s) climates, and present and future (2050s; IPCC SRES A2 and B1) anthropogenic emissions. The A2 climate scenario is employed here because it lies at the upper extreme of projected climate change for the 21st century. To examine the sensitivity of U.S. O3 to regional emissions increases (decreases), the IPCC SRES A2 and B1 scenarios, which have overall higher and lower O3-precursor emissions for the U.S., respectively, have been chosen. We find that climate change, by itself, significantly worsens the severity and frequency of high-O3 events ("episodes") over most locations in the U.S., with relatively small changes in average O3 air quality. These high-O3 increases due to climate change alone will erode moderately the gains made under a U.S. emissions reduction scenario (e.g., B1). The effect of climate change on high- and average-O3 increases with anthropogenic emissions. Insofar as average O3 air quality is concerned, changes in U.S. anthropogenic emissions will play the most important role in attaining (or not) near-term U.S. O3 air quality standards. However, policy makers must plan appropriately for O3 background increases due to projected increases in global CH4 abundance and non-U.S. anthropogenic emissions, as well as potential local enhancements that they could cause. These findings provide strong incentives for more-than-planned emissions reductions at locations that are currently O3-nonattainment.

Can carbon dioxide storage help cut greenhouse emissions? A simplified guide to the IPCC's 'Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-06-01

Fossil fuels account for 75 - 80% of today's global energy use and three quarters of humanity's total carbon dioxide emissions. Without specific actions to minimize our impact on the climate, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil-fuel energy are projected to swell over the course of the 21st century. The consequences - a global temperature rise of 1.4 - 5.8C and shifting patterns of weather and extreme events - could prove disastrous for future generations. Stabilizing or reducing global emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases over the coming decades will challenge human ingenuity. Fortunately, the IPCC's Third Assessment Report, published in 2001, concluded that existing and emerging technologies for limiting emissions could - if supported by the right policies - stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases by the end of the century at levels that would limit further climate change. No single technology will suffice by itself; instead, a combination of technologies will be required. Many of the most promising technologies will contribute by improving the energy efficiency of certain processes and products or by converting solar, wind and other noncarbon power sources into usable energy. But with oil, coal and gas set to remain the primary sources of energy for decades to come, governments and industry are also examining technologies for reducing emissions from these fuels. One such technology is known as carbon dioxide capture and storage. Abbreviated as CCS, this technology could be used by large c1 Introduction stationary 'point sources' such as fossil fuel-fired power plants and industrial facilities to prevent their CO2 emissions from entering the atmosphere and contributing to climate change. To learn more about this technology's potential, the member governments of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change asked the IPCC to assess the current state of knowledge about carbon dioxide storage and capture. The IPCC

ON THE PAUSED WARMING CONTROVERSY BASED ON IPCC AR5 AND BEYOND

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MIKA J.

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The paused warming since ca. 2002 (maybe, 1998 is not satisfactorily reflected by the IPCC WGI (2013 Report. The aim of the present study is to collect, present and discuss the key arguments of the issue, selected strictly from this valuable Report. Our study tackles three aspects: (i Symptoms of pausing, including atmospheric changes, near-surface oceans, cryosphere and geographical differences. (ii Possible reasons of the paused warming, including external forcing factors, playing rather minor role, and the enhanced ocean heat uptake. Though missing warming is 0.2 K/decade compared to the model expectations, the whole climate system integrates continuously increasing amount of heat, 95 % of which is locked in the oceans. (iii Consequences of the pausing for the three main branches of the IPCC activity. For climate science, correct simulation of the enhanced heat uptake is a challenge. Since characteristic time scale of most adaptation measures is 1-2 decades, or shorter, near-term projections may not drive adaptation until climate models become able meet this challenge. On the other hand, pausing warming does not question the need for mitigation, since it is physically unlikely, that oceans can uptake endless amount of heat. Vertical temperature gradients of the upper ocean layers already show stagnation.

Sustainability assessment of nuclear power: Discourse analysis of IAEA and IPCC frameworks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verbruggen, Aviel; Laes, Erik

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Sustainability assessments (SAs) are methodologically precarious. • Discourse analysis reveals how the meaning of sustainability is constructed in SAs. • Discourse analysis is applied on the SAs of nuclear power of IAEA and IPCC. • For IAEA ‘sustainable’ equals ‘complying with best international practices’. • The IAEA framework largely inspires IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. - Abstract: Sustainability assessments (SAs) are methodologically precarious. Value-based judgments inevitably play a role in setting the scope of the SA, selecting assessment criteria and indicators, collecting adequate data, and developing and using models of considered systems. Discourse analysis can reveal how the meaning and operationalization of sustainability is constructed in and through SAs. Our discourse-analytical approach investigates how sustainability is channeled from ‘manifest image’ (broad but shallow), to ‘vision’, to ‘policy targets’ (specific and practical). This approach is applied on the SA frameworks used by IAEA and IPCC to assess the sustainability of the nuclear power option. The essentially problematic conclusion is that both SA frameworks are constructed in order to obtain answers that do not conflict with prior commitments adopted by the two institutes. For IAEA ‘sustainable’ equals ‘complying with best international practices and standards’. IPCC wrestles with its mission as a provider of “policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive” knowledge to decision-makers. IPCC avoids the assessment of different visions on the role of nuclear power in a low-carbon energy future, and skips most literature critical of nuclear power. The IAEA framework largely inspires IPCC AR5

Evaluation of the effect of accounting method, IPCC v. LCA, on grass-based and confinement dairy systems' greenhouse gas emissions.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Brien, D; Shalloo, L; Patton, J; Buckley, F; Grainger, C; Wallace, M

2012-09-01

Life cycle assessment (LCA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guideline methodology, which are the principal greenhouse gas (GHG) quantification methods, were evaluated in this study using a dairy farm GHG model. The model was applied to estimate GHG emissions from two contrasting dairy systems: a seasonal calving pasture-based dairy farm and a total confinement dairy system. Data used to quantify emissions from these systems originated from a research study carried out over a 1-year period in Ireland. The genetic merit of cows modelled was similar for both systems. Total mixed ration was fed in the Confinement system, whereas grazed grass was mainly fed in the grass-based system. GHG emissions from these systems were quantified per unit of product and area. The results of both methods showed that the dairy system that emitted the lowest GHG emissions per unit area did not necessarily emit the lowest GHG emissions possible for a given level of product. Consequently, a recommendation from this study is that GHG emissions be evaluated per unit of product given the growing affluent human population and increasing demand for dairy products. The IPCC and LCA methods ranked dairy systems' GHG emissions differently. For instance, the IPCC method quantified that the Confinement system reduced GHG emissions per unit of product by 8% compared with the grass-based system, but the LCA approach calculated that the Confinement system increased emissions by 16% when off-farm emissions associated with primary dairy production were included. Thus, GHG emissions should be quantified using approaches that quantify the total GHG emissions associated with the production system, so as to determine whether the dairy system was causing emissions displacement. The IPCC and LCA methods were also used in this study to simulate, through a dairy farm GHG model, what effect management changes within both production systems have on GHG emissions. The findings suggest that

Progress report: The Energy and Industry Subgroup of IPCC Working Group III

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yokobori, Keiichi

1990-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in November 1988 under the joint auspices of UNEP and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Working Group III, or the Response Strategies Working Group (RSWG), was established to formulate strategies to respond to challenges arising from global climate warming. The Energy and Industry Subgroup (EIS) was created by the RSWG at its meeting in January-February 1989 to facilitate the formulation of strategies to control, i.e. prevent or reduce, the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as CO 2 , CFCs, NO 2 , CH, etc. The following article gives a brief summary of EIS activities, based mainly on records of discussion at the relevant meetings. (author). 1 tab

Twenty first century climate change as simulated by European climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cubasch, Ulrich

2007-01-01

Full text: Climate change simulation results for seven European state-of-the-art climate models, participating in the European research project ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts), will be presented. Models from Norway, France, Germany, Denmark, and Great Britain, representing a sub-ensemble of the models contributing to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), are included. Climate simulations are conducted with all the models for present-day climate and for future climate under the SRES A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios. The design of the simulations follows the guidelines of the IPCC AR4. The 21st century projections are compared to the corresponding present-day simulations. The ensemble mean global mean near surface temperature rise for the year 2099 compared to the 1961-1990 period amounts to 3.2Kforthe A1B scenario, to 4.1 K for the A2 scenario, and to 2.1 K for the B1 scenario. The spatial patterns of temperature change are robust among the contributing models with the largest temperature increase over the Arctic in boreal winter, stronger warming overland than over ocean, and little warming over the southern oceans. The ensemble mean globally averaged precipitation increases for the three scenarios (5.6%, 5.7%, and 3.8% for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1, respectively). The precipitation signals of the different models display a larger spread than the temperature signals. In general, precipitation increases in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the mid- to high latitudes (most pronounced during the hemispheric winter) and decreases in the subtropics. Sea-level pressure decreases over the polar regions in all models and all scenarios, which is mainly compensated by a pressure increase in the subtropical highs. These changes imply an intensification of the Southern and Northern Annular Modes

The tragedy of global warming: From the fifth IPCC report to the 2015 Paris Climate Conference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Auverlot, Dominique

2015-01-01

Reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) always signal a new step in the fight against climate change. The first report, in 1990, led to the adoption of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change during the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro. The second one, released in 1996, prepared the way for the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. The third, in 2000, emphasized 'adaptation', an idea taken up during subsequent negotiations. The fourth report in 2007 made a step toward setting at 2 deg. C the maximum increase in temperature and opened the way to the non-binding Copenhagen Accord and then to Cancun. What consequences will the fifth IPCC report of October 2014 have? Will it help finalize the Paris agreement? Or will it be considered to be one report too many - repeating what has oft been stated over the last twenty years? Before replying, the major points raised in this report are discussed; and questions, asked about some of the conclusions. Lessons are drawn for the worldwide agreement on the table in Paris

Long-term simulation of temporal change of soil organic carbon in Denmark: comparison of three model performances under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Öztürk, Isik; Sharif, Behzad; Santhome, Sanmohan

2018-01-01

The temporal change in soil organic carbon (SOC) was analysed over an 80-year period based on climate change predictions of four regional circulation models under the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario in the 21st century. A 20-year (1991–2010) set of observed...... to the total variance of random variation was quantified. Statistical analysis showed that the crop-soil models are the main source for uncertainty in analysing soil C and N responses to climate change....

Geoethics: IPCC disgraced by violation of observational facts and physical laws in their sea level scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Mörner, Nils-Axel

2014-05-01

Sea level may rise due to glacier melting, heat expansion of the oceanic water column, and redistribution of the waster masses - all these factors can be handled as to rates and amplitudes (provided one knows what one is talking about). In key areas over the entire Indian Ocean and in many Pacific Islands there are no traces of and sea level rise over the last 40-50 years. This is also the case for test-areas like Venice and the North Sea coasts. In the Kattegatt Sea one can fix the sea level factor to a maximum rise of 1.0-0.9 mm/year over the last century. The 204 tide gauges selected by NOAA for their global sea level monitoring provide a strong and sharp maximum (of 182 sites) in the range of 0.0-2.0 mm/yr. Satellite altimetry is said to give a rise of 3.2 mm/yr; this, however, is a value achieved after a quite subjective and surely erroneous "correction". The IPCC is talking about exceptionally much higher rates, and even worse are some "boy scouts" desperate try to launce real horror ratios. Physical laws set the frames of the rate and amount of ice melting, and so do records of events in the past (i.e. the geological records). During the Last Ice Age so much ice was accumulated on land, that the sea level dropped by about 120 m. When the process was reversed and ice melted under exceptionally strong climate forcing, sea level rose at a maximum rate of about 10 mm/yr (a meter per century). This can never happen under today's climate conditions. Even with IPCC's hypothetical scenarios, the true sea rise must be far less. When people like Rahmstorf (claiming 1 m or more by 2100) and Hansen (claiming a 4 m rise from 2080 to 2100) give their values, they exceed what is possible according to physical laws and accumulated geological knowledge. The expansion of the oceanic water column may reach amounts of sea level rise in the order of a few centimetres, at the most a decimetre. Old temperature measurements may record a temperature rise over the last 50 years in

IPCC workshop on impacts of ocean acidification on marine biology and ecosystems. Workshop report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Field, C.B.; Barros, V.; Stocker, T.F.; Dahe, Q.; Mach, K.J.; Plattner, G.-K.; Mastrandrea, M.D.; Tignor, M.; Ebi, K.L.

2011-09-15

Understanding the effects of increasing atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations on ocean chemistry, commonly termed ocean acidification, as well as associated impacts on marine biology and ecosystems, is an important component of scientific knowledge about global change. The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will include comprehensive coverage of ocean acidification and its impacts, including potential feedbacks to the climate system. To support ongoing AR5 assessment efforts, Working Group II and Working Group I (WGII and WGI) of the IPCC held a joint Workshop on Impacts of Ocean Acidification on Marine Biology and Ecosystems in Okinawa, Japan, from 17 to 19 January 2011. The workshop convened experts from the scientific community, including WGII and WGI AR5 authors and review editors, to synthesise scientific understanding of changes in ocean chemistry due to increased CO{sub 2} and of impacts of this changing chemistry on marine organisms, ecosystems, and ecosystem services. This workshop report summarises the scientific content and perspectives presented and discussed during the workshop. It provides syntheses of these perspectives for the workshop's core topics: (i) the changing chemistry of the oceans, (ii) impacts of ocean acidification for individual organisms, and (iii) scaling up responses from individual organisms to ecosystems. It also presents summaries of workshop discussions of key cross-cutting themes, ranging from detection and attribution of ocean acidification and its impacts to understanding ocean acidification in the context of other stressors on marine systems. Additionally, the workshop report includes extended abstracts for keynote and poster presentations at the workshop. (Author)

Methods for Assessing Uncertainties in Climate Change, Impacts and Responses (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Manning, M. R.; Swart, R.

2009-12-01

assessment [IPCC, 2005]. This paper extends a review of the treatment of uncertainty in the IPCC assessments by Swart et al [2009]. It is shown that progress towards consistency has been made but that there also appears to be a need for continued use of several complementary approaches in order to cover the wide range of circumstances across different disciplines involved in climate change. While this reflects the situation in the science community, it also raises the level of complexity for policymakers and other users of the assessments who would prefer one common consensus approach. References IPCC (2005), Guidance Notes for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on Addressing Uncertainties, IPCC, Geneva. Manning, M., et al. (2004), IPCC Workshop on Describing Scientific Uncertainties in Climate Change to Support Analysis of Risk and of Options. IPCC Moss, R., and S. Schneider (2000), Uncertainties, in Guidance Papers on the Cross Cutting Issues of the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, edited by R. Pachauri, et al., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Geneva. Swart, R., et al. (2009), Agreeing to disagree: uncertainty management in assessing climate change, impacts and responses by the IPCC Climatic Change, 92(1-2), 1 - 29.

IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon

2001-01-01

This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

iB1350 no.1. A generation III.7 reactor after the Fukushima Daiichi accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sato, Takashi; Matsumoto, Keiji; Hosomi, Kenji; Kojima, Yoshihiro; Taguchi, Keisuke

2017-01-01

iB1350 stands for an innovative, intelligent and inexpensive BWR 1350. It is the first generation III.7 reactor after the Fukushima Daiichi accident. It has incorporated lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi accident and WENRA safety objectives. It has innovative safety to cope with devastating natural disasters including a giant earthquake, a large tsunami and a monster hurricane. The iB1350 can survive passively such devastation and a very prolonged SBO without any support from the outside of a site up to 7 days even preventing core melt. It, however, is based on the well-established proven ABWR design. The NSSS is exactly the same as that of the current ABWR. As for safety design, it has a double cylinder RCCV (Mark W containment) and in-depth hybrid safety systems (IDHS). The Mark W containment has double FP confinement barriers and the in-containment filtered venting system (IFVS) that enable passively no emergency evacuation outside the immediate vicinity of the plant for a SA. It has a large volume to hold hydrogen, an innovative core catcher (iCC), a passive flooding system and an innovative passive containment cooling system (iPCCS) establishing passively practical elimination of containment failure even in a long term. The IDHS consists of 4 division active safety systems for a DBA, 2 division active safety systems for a SA and built-in passive safety systems (BiPSS) consisting of an isolation condenser (IC) and the iPCCS for a SA. While the conventional PCCS can never cool the S/P, the iPCCS can automatically cool the S/P directly even in a DBA LOCA. That makes it possible for the iB1350 to optimize the active safety systems for a DBA. Sato came up with several optimized configurations of the IDHS that are expected to achieve further cost reduction and enhance its reliability resulting from passive feature of the iPCCS. The IC/iPCCS pool has enough capacity for 7 day grace period. The IC/iPCCS heat exchangers, the core and the spent fuel pool are

Global estimates of carbon stock changes in living forest biomass: EDGARv4.3 - time series from 1990 to 2010

Science.gov (United States)

Petrescu, A. M. R.; Abad-Viñas, R.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Blujdea, V. N. B.; Grassi, G.

2012-08-01

While the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) focuses on global estimates for the full set of anthropogenic activities, the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector might be the most diverse and most challenging to cover consistently for all countries of the world. Parties to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are required to provide periodic estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, following the latest approved methodological guidance by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The current study aims to consistently estimate the carbon (C) stock changes from living forest biomass for all countries of the world, in order to complete the LULUCF sector in EDGAR. In order to derive comparable estimates for developing and developed countries, it is crucial to use a single methodology with global applicability. Data for developing countries are generally poor, such that only the Tier 1 methods from either the IPCC Good Practice Guide for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (GPG-LULUCF) 2003 or the IPCC 2006 Guidelines can be applied to these countries. For this purpose, we applied the IPCC Tier 1 method at global level following both IPCC GPG-LULUCF 2003 and IPCC 2006, using spatially coarse activity data (i.e. area, obtained combining two different global forest maps: the Global Land Cover map and the eco-zones subdivision of the Global Ecological Zone (GEZ) map) in combination with the IPCC default C stocks and C stock change factors. Results for the C stock changes were calculated separately for gains, harvest, fires (Global Fire Emissions Database version 3, GFEDv.3) and net deforestation for the years 1990, 2000, 2005 and 2010. At the global level, results obtained with the two sets of IPCC guidance differed by about 40 %, due to different assumptions and default factors. The IPCC Tier 1 method unavoidably introduced high uncertainties due to the "globalization" of parameters. When the

Coupled model simulations of climate changes in the 20th century and beyond

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Yongqiang; Zhi, Hai; Wang, Bin; Wan, Hui; Li, Chao; Liu, Hailong; Li, Wei; Zheng, Weipeng; Zhou, Tianjun

2008-07-01

Several scenario experiments of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4) are performed by version g1.0 of a Flexible coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model (FGOALS) developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS), including the “Climate of the 20th century experiment”, “CO2 1% increase per year to doubling experiment” and two separate IPCC greenhouse gases emission scenarios A1B and B1 experiments. To distinguish between the different impacts of natural variations and human activities on the climate change, three-member ensemble runs are performed for each scenario experiment. The coupled model simulations show: (1) from 1900 to 2000, the global mean temperature increases about 0.5°C and the major increase occurs during the later half of the 20th century, which is in consistent with the observations that highlights the coupled model’s ability to reproduce the climate changes since the industrial revolution; (2) the global mean surface air temperature increases about 1.6°C in the CO2 doubling experiment and 1.5°C and 2.4°C in the A1B and B1 scenarios, respectively. The global warming is indicated by not only the changes of the surface temperature and precipitation but also the temperature increase in the deep ocean. The thermal expansion of the sea water would induce the rise of the global mean sea level. Both the control run and the 20th century climate change run are carried out again with version g1.1 of FGOALS, in which the cold biases in the high latitudes were removed. They are then compared with those from version g1.0 of FGOALS in order to distinguish the effect of the model biases on the simulation of global warming.

Maynard Participation in Alaska Forum on the Environment Panel Discussion on Increasing Input to the US National Climate Assessment (NCA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Processes from Alaska, with Emphasis on Indigenous Peoples Issues

Science.gov (United States)

Maynard, Nancy G.

2012-01-01

Dr. Nancy Maynard was invited by the Alaska Forum on the Environment to participate in a Panel Discussion to discuss (1) background about what the US NCA and International IPCC assessments are, (2) the impact the assessments have on policy-making, (3) the process for participation in both assessments, (4) how we can increase participation by Indigenous Peoples such as Native Americans and Alaska Natives, (5) How we can increase historical and current impacts input from Native communities through stories, oral history, "grey" literature, etc. The session will be chaired by Dr. Bull Bennett, a cochair of the US NCA's chapter on "Native and Tribal Lands and Resources" and Dr. Maynard is the other co-chair of that chapter and they will discuss the latest activities under the NCA process relevant to Native Americans and Alaska Natives. Dr. Maynard is also a Lead Author of the "Polar Regions" chapter of the IPCC WG2 (5th Assessment) and she will describes some of the latest approaches by the IPCC to entrain more Indigenous peoples into the IPCC process.

A carbon cycle science update since IPCC AR-4.

Science.gov (United States)

Dolman, A J; van der Werf, G R; van der Molen, M K; Ganssen, G; Erisman, J-W; Strengers, B

2010-01-01

We review important advances in our understanding of the global carbon cycle since the publication of the IPCC AR4. We conclude that: the anthropogenic emissions of CO2 due to fossil fuel burning have increased up through 2008 at a rate near to the high end of the IPCC emission scenarios; there are contradictory analyses whether an increase in atmospheric fraction, that might indicate a declining sink strength of ocean and/or land, exists; methane emissions are increasing, possibly through enhanced natural emission from northern wetland, methane emissions from dry plants are negligible; old-growth forest take up more carbon than expected from ecological equilibrium reasoning; tropical forest also take up more carbon than previously thought, however, for the global budget to balance, this would imply a smaller uptake in the northern forest; the exchange fluxes between the atmosphere and ocean are increasingly better understood and bottom up and observation-based top down estimates are getting closer to each other; the North Atlantic and Southern ocean take up less CO2, but it is unclear whether this is part of the 'natural' decadal scale variability; large-scale fires and droughts, for instance in Amazonia, but also at Northern latitudes, have lead to significant decreases in carbon uptake on annual timescales; the extra uptake of CO2 stimulated by increased N-deposition is, from a greenhouse gas forcing perspective, counterbalanced by the related additional N2O emissions; the amount of carbon stored in permafrost areas appears much (two times) larger than previously thought; preservation of existing marine ecosystems could require a CO2 stabilization as low as 450 ppm; Dynamic Vegetation Models show a wide divergence for future carbon trajectories, uncertainty in the process description, lack of understanding of the CO2 fertilization effect and nitrogen-carbon interaction are major uncertainties.

A history of the science and politics of climate change: the role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bolin, B. [University of Stockholm, Stockholm (Sweden)

2007-11-15

In response to growing concern about human-induced global climate change, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was formed in 1988. Written by its first Chairman, this book is a unique overview of the history of the IPCC. It describes and evaluates the intricate interplay between key factors in the science and politics of climate change, the strategy that has been followed, and the regretfully slow pace in getting to grips with the uncertainties that have prevented earlier action being taken. The book also highlights the emerging conflict between establishing a sustainable global energy system and preventing a serious change in global climate. Contents are: Part I. The Early History of the Climate Change Issue: 1. Nineteenth century discoveries; 2. The natural carbon cycle and life on earth; 3. Global research initiatives in meteorology and climatology; 4. Early international assessments of climate change; Part II. The Climate Change Issue Becomes One of Global Concern: 5. Setting the stage; 6. The scientific basis for a climate convention; 7. Serving the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee; 8. The Second IPP Assessment Report; 9. In the aftermath of the IPCC Second Assessment; 10. The Kyoto Protocol is agreed and a third assessment begun; 11. A decade of hesitance and slow progress; Part III. A Turning Point in Addressing Climate Change?: 12. Key scientific finding of prime political relevance; 13. Climate change and the future global energy supply system; Concluding remarks. 9 figs.

Is a Breakthrough on Climate Change Governance on the Horizon?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Figueroa, Maria Josefina

The recently released Fifth Assessment report of the IPCC has highlighted again with unprecedented scope and insight the urgency of addressing climate change. The international community has pledged to devise the next international agreement on climate change by 2015, while the EU and in particular...... the Scandinavian countries have forged ahead advancing a variety of policies to respond to climate change. Similarly, regions, municipalities, and private actors across the world are also contributing to climate governance. This paper asks whether the world is reaching a tipping point where a breakthrough...... on climate change governance is near?. The answer is approached by contrasting the governance model within which the IPCC operates and the conditions of policy and governance interaction toward the more scientific foundations laid out by IPCC, with the range of multilateral climate governance...

Data of evolutionary structure change: 1A96B-1VDMG [Confc[Archive

Lifescience Database Archive (English)

Full Text Available 1A96B-1VDMG 1A96 1VDM B G -EKYIVTWDMLQIHARKLASRLMPSEQWKGIIAVSRGGL...VPGALLARELGIRHVDTVCISSYDHD--NQRELKVLKRAEGDGEG--FIVIDDLVDTGGTAVAIREMYP-----KAHFVTIFAKPAGRPLVDDYVVDIPQDTWIEQPWDMG...7 LEU CA 198 1VDM G 1VDMG.../n14> 1VDM G 1VDMG2 1VDM G 1VDMG

Climate change and its linkages with development, equity and sustainability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Munasinghe, M.; Swart, R.

2000-01-01

The IPCC Working Groups 2 and 3 (on impacts and adaptation, and on mitigation, respectively) have taken the initiative to organise a number of expert meetings. The main goals of the meetings are: (a) to increase co-ordination among, and inform lead authors about development, equity and sustainability (DES) issues and climate change; and (b) to better place the IPCC Third Assessment Report in the context of DES, through enhanced access to the best available scientific, technical economic and social information from across the world. The rapidly growing economies of Asia will play a key role in determining future climate change policy. Thus, the organisation of the first expert meeting in Colombo, Sri Lanka, under the able guidance of Professor Mohan Munasinghe, is very appropriate. The conference has provided a crucial first step towards broadening the scope of the IPCC reports, by integrating DES issues into climate change response strategies. This Proceedings volume is also important as a key policy-relevant (but not policy-prescriptive) vehicle that will better inform worldwide networks of scientists from different regional, cultural and disciplinary backgrounds, in their pursuit of the best scientific information on the linkages between climate change and sustainable development. refs

Climate change on Twitter: topics, communities and conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 report

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pearce, W; Holmberg, K; Hellsten, I.; Nerlich, B.

2014-01-01

In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate

Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Frieler, Katja; Betts, Richard; Burke, J.; Burke, Eleanor; Ciais, Philippe; Denvil, Sebastien; Deryng, Delphine; Ebi, Kristie; Eddy, Tyler; Emanuel, Kerry; Elliot, Joshua; Galbraith, Eric; Gosling, Simon N.; Halladay, Kate; Hattermann, F.; Hickler, T.; Hinkel, Jochen; Huber, Veronika; Jones, Chris D.; Krysanova, V.; Lange, Stefan; Lotze, Heike K.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mengel, Matthias; Mouratiadou, I.; Muller Schmied, Hannes; Ostberg, Sebastian; Piontek, Franziska; Popp, Alexander; Reyer, Christopher Paul Oliver; Schewe, Jacob; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Suzuki, T.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tian, Hanqin; Tittensor, Derek P.; Vautard, Richard; Vliet, van M.T.H.; Warszawski, L.; Zhao, Fang

2016-01-01

In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial

Bad weather for the IPCC: from Nobel price to affairs, rise and fall of climate experts; Sale temps pour le GIEC: Du prix Nobel aux affaires, grandeur et decadence des experts du climat

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dubuis, E.

2010-07-01

The intergovernmental panel on climate change, IPCC, or GIEC in French, has become in 20 years one of the most influent organization in the world. Awarded by the Nobel price of peace in 2007, this expression of the United Nations has succeeded in setting the fight against global warming at the top of the international political agenda, in particular during the 2009 Copenhagen meeting. What are the keys of this success? The IPCC has announced a global warming with disastrous effects, where floods would combine with dryness periods, epidemics and other natural disasters. Such a dark picture cannot leave anyone indifferent and allows the IPCC to encourage the humanity to drastically change its consumption habits and limit its way of life. However, to raise such fears and ask for such sacrifices, an organization like the IPCC must be irreproachable. And here is the problem reported in this book: the IPCC has shown its weaknesses, has made mistakes, has used unappropriated methods and miscasting personnel, has been uncapable to explain the complexness of the climate question and has felt reticent about the recognition of its mistakes. Revealed between fall 2009 and winter 2010, these failures have shaken the credibility of the organization to such a point that the UN requested an expertise to judge its own experts. (J.S.)

A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, K. M.

2012-01-01

Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

Rainfall and its seasonality over the Amazon in the 21st century as assessed by the coupled models for the IPCC AR4

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wenhong; Fu, Rong; Dickinson, Robert E.

2006-01-01

The global climate models for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) predict very different changes of rainfall over the Amazon under the SRES A1B scenario for global climate change. Five of the eleven models predict an increase of annual rainfall, three models predict a decrease of rainfall, and the other three models predict no significant changes in the Amazon rainfall. We have further examined two models. The UKMO-HadCM3 model predicts an El Niño-like sea surface temperature (SST) change and warming in the northern tropical Atlantic which appear to enhance atmospheric subsidence and consequently reduce clouds over the Amazon. The resultant increase of surface solar absorption causes a stronger surface sensible heat flux and thus reduces relative humidity of the surface air. These changes decrease the rate and length of wet season rainfall and surface latent heat flux. This decreased wet season rainfall leads to drier soil during the subsequent dry season, which in turn can delay the transition from the dry to wet season. GISS-ER predicts a weaker SST warming in the western Pacific and the southern tropical Atlantic which increases moisture transport and hence rainfall in the Amazon. In the southern Amazon and Nordeste where the strongest rainfall increase occurs, the resultant higher soil moisture supports a higher surface latent heat flux during the dry and transition season and leads to an earlier wet season onset.

Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 2: Precipitation mean state and seasonal cycle in South America

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boulanger, Jean-Philippe [LODYC, UMR CNRS/IRD/UPMC, Tour 45-55/Etage 4/Case 100, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05 (France); University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Martinez, Fernando; Segura, Enrique C. [University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Computacion, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

2007-02-15

Evaluating the response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing is a major objective of the climate community, and the use of large ensemble of simulations is considered as a significant step toward that goal. The present paper thus discusses a new methodology based on neural network to mix ensemble of climate model simulations. Our analysis consists of one simulation of seven Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models, which participated in the IPCC Project and provided at least one simulation for the twentieth century (20c3m) and one simulation for each of three SRES scenarios: A2, A1B and B1. Our statistical method based on neural networks and Bayesian statistics computes a transfer function between models and observations. Such a transfer function was then used to project future conditions and to derive what we would call the optimal ensemble combination for twenty-first century climate change projections. Our approach is therefore based on one statement and one hypothesis. The statement is that an optimal ensemble projection should be built by giving larger weights to models, which have more skill in representing present climate conditions. The hypothesis is that our method based on neural network is actually weighting the models that way. While the statement is actually an open question, which answer may vary according to the region or climate signal under study, our results demonstrate that the neural network approach indeed allows to weighting models according to their skills. As such, our method is an improvement of existing Bayesian methods developed to mix ensembles of simulations. However, the general low skill of climate models in simulating precipitation mean climatology implies that the final projection maps (whatever the method used to compute them) may significantly change in the future as models improve. Therefore, the projection results for late twenty-first century conditions are presented as possible projections based on the &apos

Patterns of authorship in the IPCC Working Group III report

Science.gov (United States)

Corbera, Esteve; Calvet-Mir, Laura; Hughes, Hannah; Paterson, Matthew

2016-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has completed its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Here, we explore the social scientific networks informing Working Group III (WGIII) assessment of mitigation for the AR5. Identifying authors’ institutional pathways, we highlight the persistence and extent of North-South inequalities in the authorship of the report, revealing the dominance of US and UK institutions as training sites for WGIII authors. Examining patterns of co-authorship between WGIII authors, we identify the unevenness in co-authoring relations, with a small number of authors co-writing regularly and indicative of an epistemic community’s influence over the IPCC’s definition of mitigation. These co-authoring networks follow regional patterns, with significant EU-BRICS collaboration and authors from the US relatively insular. From a disciplinary perspective, economists, engineers, physicists and natural scientists remain central to the process, with insignificant participation of scholars from the humanities. The shared training and career paths made apparent through our analysis suggest that the idea that broader geographic participation may lead to a wider range of viewpoints and cultural understandings of climate change mitigation may not be as sound as previously thought.

The land-use projections and resulting emissions in the IPCC SRES scenarios as simulated by the IMAGE 2.2 model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strengers, B.; Eickhout, B.; De Vries, B.; Bouwman, L.; Leemans, R.

2005-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) developed a new series of emission scenarios (SRES). Six global models were used to develop SRES but most focused primarily on energy and industry related emissions. Land-use emissions were only covered by three models, where IMAGE included the most detailed, spatially explicit description of global land-use and land-cover dynamics. To complement their calculations the other models used land-use emission from AIM and IMAGE, leading to inconsistent estimates. Representation of the land-use emissions in SRES is therefore poor. This paper presents details on the IMAGE 2.1 land-use results to complement the SRES report. The IMAGE SRES scenarios are based on the original IPCC SRES assumptions and narratives using the latest version of IMAGE (IMAGE 2.2). IMAGE provides comprehensive emission estimates because not only emissions are addressed but also the resulting atmospheric concentrations, climate change and impacts. Additionally, in SRES the scenario assumptions were only presented and quantified for 4 'macro-regions'. The IMAGE 2.2 SRES implementation has been extended towards 17 regions. We focus on land-use aspects and show that land-related emissions not only depend on population projections but also on the temporal and spatial dynamics of different land-related sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. We also illustrate the importance of systemic feed backs and interactions in the climate system that influence land-use emissions, such as deforestation and forest regrowth, soil respiration and CO2-fertilisation

Developed Countries 2020 Pledges Fall Short of IPCC Target What can we do

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guerin, E.; Colombier, M

2009-07-01

With the recent announcement by President Obama of the US emission reduction target, the map of developed countries pledges is now full. The US will come to Copenhagen with a -17% target in 2020 compared to 2005 levels that translates into a -4% compared to 1990 levels (together with a -42% target in 2030 that translates into a -33% compared to 1990. Some countries have put forward multiple pledges. They will only commit to the highest pledge if the Copenhagen agreement is deemed satisfactory. For example, the European Union (EU) stated it would move from -20% (the lower pledge) to -30% (the higher pledge) in 2020 compared to 1990 levels if developed countries undertake comparable emission cuts and if major developing countries undertake adequate mitigation actions. Countries also choose different base years in quantifying their pledges. These mitigation pledges by developed countries result in aggregate emissions of -14 to -19% in 2020 compared to 1990 levels, which fall well below the range established by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change). According to the IPCC, developed countries need to reduce their emissions by -25 to -40% in 2020 compared to 1990 levels to have approximately a 50% chance to limit the temperature increase to 2 deg. C above pre-industrial levels. It should be noted that some targets presented here (such as EU and US pledges) account for international offsets. To be consistent with IPCC figures, this fraction of expected reductions should not be accounted for. Only the domestic component should be considered. But as specified now, certain pledges are expected to fall further below target. For example, the EU's -20% target translates into -15%, with offsets excluded. This is quite problematic. First, from a climate point of view: developed countries are not making the emission reduction commitments necessary for stabilizing global temperatures at a level that averts dangerous climate change. Second, from a negotiation

Developed Countries 2020 Pledges Fall Short of IPCC Target What can we do

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guerin, E.; Colombier, M.

2009-01-01

With the recent announcement by President Obama of the US emission reduction target, the map of developed countries pledges is now full. The US will come to Copenhagen with a -17% target in 2020 compared to 2005 levels that translates into a -4% compared to 1990 levels (together with a -42% target in 2030 that translates into a -33% compared to 1990. Some countries have put forward multiple pledges. They will only commit to the highest pledge if the Copenhagen agreement is deemed satisfactory. For example, the European Union (EU) stated it would move from -20% (the lower pledge) to -30% (the higher pledge) in 2020 compared to 1990 levels if developed countries undertake comparable emission cuts and if major developing countries undertake adequate mitigation actions. Countries also choose different base years in quantifying their pledges. These mitigation pledges by developed countries result in aggregate emissions of -14 to -19% in 2020 compared to 1990 levels, which fall well below the range established by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change). According to the IPCC, developed countries need to reduce their emissions by -25 to -40% in 2020 compared to 1990 levels to have approximately a 50% chance to limit the temperature increase to 2 deg. C above pre-industrial levels. It should be noted that some targets presented here (such as EU and US pledges) account for international offsets. To be consistent with IPCC figures, this fraction of expected reductions should not be accounted for. Only the domestic component should be considered. But as specified now, certain pledges are expected to fall further below target. For example, the EU's -20% target translates into -15%, with offsets excluded. This is quite problematic. First, from a climate point of view: developed countries are not making the emission reduction commitments necessary for stabilizing global temperatures at a level that averts dangerous climate change. Second, from a negotiation point of

Economic and policy issues in climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nordhaus, W.D.

1998-01-01

Global climate change has emerged as one of today's most challenging and controversial policy issues. In this significant new contribution, a roster of premier scholars examines economic and social aspects of that far-reaching phenomenon. Although the 1997 summit in Kyoto focused world attention on climate, it was just one step in an ongoing process. Research by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been ongoing since 1988. An extensive IPCC Working Group report published in 1995 examined the economic and social aspects of climate change. In this new volume, eminent economists assess that IPCC report and address the questions that emerge. William Nordhaus's introduction establishes the context for this book. It provides basic scientific background, reviews the IPCC's activities, and explains the genesis of the project

Report of the Joint IPCC WG 2 and 3 expert meeting on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the 4. IPCC assessment report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2005-07-01

The objectives for this meeting at Reunion Island were: - To feed new views from outside the climate change literature into the assessment of Working Group II (WG II) and WG III concerning the strongly interrelated area of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development. - to dove-tail zero-order draft texts of WG II and WG III (by the authors) with a view to ensuring that the treatment of Adaptation and Mitigation (AM) and Sustainable Development (SD) issues in both assessments is: 'Consistent, Complementary, Concise and Complete' ('4 Cs'). Furthermore, it was decided that the deliverable should be: - Recommendations for the writing team of WG II fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for incorporation of AM and SD issues in their First Order Draft (following their 2. Lead Author meeting in Cairns, 14-17 March 2005); - Recommendations for the writing team of WG III for incorporation in their Zero-order Draft (ZOD, to be completed 11 March 2005) The programme of the meeting was developed by the TSUs of WG II and III under the responsibility of the co-chairs of WG II and III. Day 1 the programme was devoted to a series of key note speakers, covering both potential user views as well as relevant new perspectives on the handling of AM and SD issues. These areas have not been fully addressed in the IPCC assessment work to date. The invited experts elaborated on 'new science areas' or 'new literatures' that inform parts of the AR4. The morning programme of Day 1 also contained an opening session featuring several ministers of Environment of neighbouring Small Island States, a representative of the European Parliament, and government officials from both the French Republic and Reunion Island. Day 2 and 3 were used for working sessions between authors on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the contributions of Working Groups II and III of the AR4. The full programme is attached to the document. The

Report of the Joint IPCC WG 2 and 3 expert meeting on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the 4. IPCC assessment report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

The objectives for this meeting at Reunion Island were: - To feed new views from outside the climate change literature into the assessment of Working Group II (WG II) and WG III concerning the strongly interrelated area of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development. - to dove-tail zero-order draft texts of WG II and WG III (by the authors) with a view to ensuring that the treatment of Adaptation and Mitigation (AM) and Sustainable Development (SD) issues in both assessments is: 'Consistent, Complementary, Concise and Complete' ('4 Cs'). Furthermore, it was decided that the deliverable should be: - Recommendations for the writing team of WG II fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for incorporation of AM and SD issues in their First Order Draft (following their 2. Lead Author meeting in Cairns, 14-17 March 2005); - Recommendations for the writing team of WG III for incorporation in their Zero-order Draft (ZOD, to be completed 11 March 2005) The programme of the meeting was developed by the TSUs of WG II and III under the responsibility of the co-chairs of WG II and III. Day 1 the programme was devoted to a series of key note speakers, covering both potential user views as well as relevant new perspectives on the handling of AM and SD issues. These areas have not been fully addressed in the IPCC assessment work to date. The invited experts elaborated on 'new science areas' or 'new literatures' that inform parts of the AR4. The morning programme of Day 1 also contained an opening session featuring several ministers of Environment of neighbouring Small Island States, a representative of the European Parliament, and government officials from both the French Republic and Reunion Island. Day 2 and 3 were used for working sessions between authors on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the contributions of Working Groups II and III of the AR4. The full programme is attached to the document. The meeting brought together more than forty

Global Environmental Change: An integrated modelling approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Den Elzen, M.

1993-01-01

Two major global environmental problems are dealt with: climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion (and their mutual interactions), briefly surveyed in part 1. In Part 2 a brief description of the integrated modelling framework IMAGE 1.6 is given. Some specific parts of the model are described in more detail in other Chapters, e.g. the carbon cycle model, the atmospheric chemistry model, the halocarbon model, and the UV-B impact model. In Part 3 an uncertainty analysis of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion is presented (Chapter 4). Chapter 5 briefly reviews the social and economic uncertainties implied by future greenhouse gas emissions. Chapters 6 and 7 describe a model and sensitivity analysis pertaining to the scientific uncertainties and/or lacunae in the sources and sinks of methane and carbon dioxide, and their biogeochemical feedback processes. Chapter 8 presents an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the carbon cycle model, the halocarbon model, and the IMAGE model 1.6 as a whole. Part 4 presents the risk assessment methodology as applied to the problems of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion more specifically. In Chapter 10, this methodology is used as a means with which to asses current ozone policy and a wide range of halocarbon policies. Chapter 11 presents and evaluates the simulated globally-averaged temperature and sea level rise (indicators) for the IPCC-1990 and 1992 scenarios, concluding with a Low Risk scenario, which would meet the climate targets. Chapter 12 discusses the impact of sea level rise on the frequency of the Dutch coastal defence system (indicator) for the IPCC-1990 scenarios. Chapter 13 presents projections of mortality rates due to stratospheric ozone depletion based on model simulations employing the UV-B chain model for a number of halocarbon policies. Chapter 14 presents an approach for allocating future emissions of CO 2 among regions. (Abstract Truncated)

Data of evolutionary structure change: 1BT8B-1EN5B [Confc[Archive

Lifescience Database Archive (English)

Full Text Available e>KGLKK----GTTLQ >H ---- > ATOM ...bChain>B 1BT8B KNMAPKGSAPERPT cture>H ...DChain> LVLKG--DKLAV >EEEE -- EEEE...ence>LVWDPLGKRINT >EEEE EEEEe> AT...re> ATOM 2237 CA LYS B 80 12.251 15.102 18.409 1.00 11.94 C

Adapting to climate change in United States national forests

Science.gov (United States)

G. M. Blate; L. A. Joyce; J. S. Littell; S. G. McNulty; C. I. Millar; S. C. Moser; R. P. Neilson; K. O’Halloran; D. L. Peterson

2009-01-01

Climate change is already affecting forests and other ecosystems, and additional, potentially more severe impacts are expected (IPCC, 2007; CCSP, 2008a, 2008b). As a result, forest managers are seeking practical guidance on how to adapt their current practices and, if necessary, their goals. Adaptations of forest ecosystems, which in this context refer to adjustments...

Data of evolutionary structure change: 1B04B-3BAAA [Confc[Archive

Lifescience Database Archive (English)

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Traceable accounts of subjective probability judgments in the IPCC and beyond

Science.gov (United States)

Baer, P. G.

2012-12-01

One of the major sources of controversy surrounding the reports of the IPCC has been the characterization of uncertainty. Although arguably the IPCC has paid more attention to the process of uncertainty analysis and communication than any comparable assessment body, its efforts to achieve consistency have produced mixed results. In particular, the extensive use of subjective probability assessment has attracted widespread criticism. Statements such as "Average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were very likely higher than during any other 50-year period in the last 500 years" are ubiquitous (one online database lists nearly 3000 such claims), and indeed are the primary way in which its key "findings" are reported. Much attention is drawn to the precise quantitative definition of such statements (e.g., "very likely" means >90% probability, vs. "extremely likely" which means >95% certainty). But there is no process by which the decision regarding the choice of such uncertainty level for a given finding is formally made or reported, and thus they are easily by disputed by anyone, expert or otherwise, who disagrees with the assessment. In the "Uncertainty Guidance Paper" for the Third Assessment Report, Richard Moss and Steve Schneider defined the concept of a "traceable account," which gave exhaustive detail regarding how one ought to provide documentation of such an uncertainty assessment. But the guidance, while appearing straightforward and reasonable, in fact was an unworkable recipe, which would have taken near-infinite time if used for more than a few key results, and would have required a different structuring of the text than the conventional scientific assessment. And even then it would have left a gap when it came to the actual provenance of any such specific judgments, because there simply is no formal step at which individuals turn their knowledge of the evidence on some finding into a probability judgment. The

Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Carter, P.

2014-12-01

This environmental health risk assessment and management approach for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is based almost entirely on IPCC AR5 (2014) content, but the IPCC does not make recommendations. Large climate model uncertainties may be large environmental health risks. In accordance with environmental health risk management, we use the standard (IPCC-endorsed) formula of risk as the product of magnitude times probability, with an extremely high standard of precaution. Atmospheric GHG pollution, causing global warming, climate change and ocean acidification, is increasing as fast as ever. Time is of the essence to inform and make recommendations to governments and the public. While the 2ºC target is the only formally agreed-upon policy limit, for the most vulnerable nations, a 1.5ºC limit is being considered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. The Climate Action Network International (2014), representing civil society, recommends that the 1.5ºC limit be kept open and that emissions decline from 2015. James Hansen et al (2013) have argued that 1ºC is the danger limit. Taking into account committed global warming, its millennial duration, multiple large sources of amplifying climate feedbacks and multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change on crops, and population health impacts, all the IPCC AR5 scenarios carry extreme environmental health risks to large human populations and to the future of humanity as a whole. Our risk consideration finds that 2ºC carries high risks of many catastrophic impacts, that 1.5ºC carries high risks of many disastrous impacts, and that 1ºC is the danger limit. IPCC AR4 (2007) showed that emissions must be reversed by 2015 for a 2ºC warming limit. For the IPCC AR5 only the best-case scenario RCP2.6, is projected to stay under 2ºC by 2100 but the upper range is just above 2ºC. It calls for emissions to decline by 2020. We recommend that for catastrophic environmental health risk aversion, emissions decline

Global Water Cycle Agreement in the Climate Models Assessed in the IPCC AR4

Science.gov (United States)

Waliser, D.; Seo, K. -W.; Schubert, S.; Njoku, E.

2007-01-01

This study examines the fidelity of the global water cycle in the climate model simulations assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The results demonstrate good model agreement in quantities that have had a robust global observational basis and that are physically unambiguous. The worst agreement occurs for quantities that have both poor observational constraints and whose model representations can be physically ambiguous. In addition, components involving water vapor (frozen water) typically exhibit the best (worst) agreement, and fluxes typically exhibit better agreement than reservoirs. These results are discussed in relation to the importance of obtaining accurate model representation of the water cycle and its role in climate change. Recommendations are also given for facilitating the needed model improvements.

Calculation of Co2 emissions from the italian energy system; Calcolo delle emissioni di CO2 dal settore energetico italiano. 1990-2000. Metodo di riferimento IPCC

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Contaldi, M. [Agenzia Nazionale per la Protezione dell' Ambiente, Rome (Italy); La Motta, S. [ENEA, Funzione Centrale Studi, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy)

2001-07-01

The calculation of Co2 emissions from the Italian energy system is the object of this work. The inventory method used is the Reference Approach from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC, 1996 revised Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories) and the energy consumption data are taken from the Italian Energy Balance edited by the Ministry of Industry. The years analysed are those from 1990 to 2000. [Italian] Lo scopo di questo lavoro e' quello di contabilizzare le emissioni di CO2 provenienti dal settore energetico per fonte di utilizzo dell'energia, a partire direttamente dal Bilancio Energetico Nazionale (Bilancio Energetico Nazionale, BEN, a cura del Ministero Industria, Commercio ed Artigianato) ed applicando all'Italia la metodologia di riferimento per il calcolo delle emissioni della CO2 elaborata dall'Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC, 1996 revised Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories). Gli anni presi in considerazione in queto lavoro sono quelli dal 1990 al 2000.

Downscaling the Impacts of Large-Scale LUCC on Surface Temperature along with IPCC RCPs: A Global Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiangzheng Deng

2014-04-01

Full Text Available This study focuses on the potential impacts of large-scale land use and land cover changes (LUCC on surface temperature from a global perspective. As important types of LUCC, urbanization, deforestation, cultivated land reclamation, and grassland degradation have effects on the climate, the potential changes of the surface temperature caused by these four types of large-scale LUCC from 2010 to 2050 are downscaled, and this issue analyzed worldwide along with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. The first case study presents some evidence of the effects of future urbanization on surface temperature in the Northeast megalopolis of the United States of America (USA. In order to understand the potential climatological variability caused by future forest deforestation and vulnerability, we chose Brazilian Amazon region as the second case study. The third selected region in India as a typical region of cultivated land reclamation where the possible climatic impacts are explored. In the fourth case study, we simulate the surface temperature changes caused by future grassland degradation in Mongolia. Results show that the temperature in built-up area would increase obviously throughout the four land types. In addition, the effects of all four large-scale LUCC on monthly average temperature change would vary from month to month with obviously spatial heterogeneity.

Effects of future climate change, CO2 enrichment, and vegetation structure variation on hydrological processes in China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Qiuan; Jiang, Hong; Peng, Changhui; Liu, Jinxun; Fang, Xiuqin; Wei, Xiaohua; Liu, Shirong; Zhou, Guomo

2012-01-01

Investigating the relationship between factors (climate change, atmospheric CO2 concentrations enrichment, and vegetation structure) and hydrological processes is important for understanding and predicting the interaction between the hydrosphere and biosphere. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) was used to evaluate the effects of climate change, rising CO2, and vegetation structure on hydrological processes in China at the end of the 21st century. Seven simulations were implemented using the assemblage of the IPCC climate and CO2 concentration scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1. Analysis results suggest that (1) climate change will have increasing effects on runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), transpiration (T), and transpiration ratio (transpiration/evapotranspiration, T/E) in most hydrological regions of China except in the southernmost regions; (2) elevated CO2 concentrations will have increasing effects on runoff at the national scale, but at the hydrological region scale, the physiology effects induced by elevated CO2 concentration will depend on the vegetation types, climate conditions, and geographical background information with noticeable decreasing effects shown in the arid Inland region of China; (3) leaf area index (LAI) compensation effect and stomatal closure effect are the dominant factors on runoff in the arid Inland region and southern moist hydrological regions, respectively; (4) the magnitudes of climate change (especially the changing precipitation pattern) effects on the water cycle are much larger than those of the elevated CO2 concentration effects; however, increasing CO2 concentration will be one of the most important modifiers to the water cycle; (5) the water resource condition will be improved in northern China but depressed in southernmost China under the IPCC climate change scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1.

Solar cycle length hypothesis appears to support the IPCC on global warming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Laut, Peter; Gundermann, Jesper

1999-01-01

warming from the enhanced concentrations of greenhouse gases. The "solar hypothesis" claims that solar activity causes a significant component of the global mean temperature to vary in phase opposite to the filtered solar cycle lengths. In an earlier paper we have demonstrated that for data covering...... lengths with the "corrected" temperature anomalies is substantially better than with the historical anomalies. Therefore our findings support a total reversal of the common assumption that a verification of the solar hypothesis would challenge the IPCC assessment of man-made global warming.......Since the discovery of a striking correlation between 1-2-2-2-1 filtered solar cycle lengths and the 11-year running average of Northern Hemisphere land air temperatures there have been widespread speculations as to whether these findings would rule out any significant contributions to global...

Future changes in peak river flows across northern Eurasia as inferred from an ensemble of regional climate projections under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Shkolnik, Igor; Pavlova, Tatiana; Efimov, Sergey; Zhuravlev, Sergey

2018-01-01

Climate change simulation based on 30-member ensemble of Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory RCM (resolution 25 km) for northern Eurasia is used to drive hydrological model CaMa-Flood. Using this modeling framework, we evaluate the uncertainties in the future projection of the peak river discharge and flood hazard by 2050-2059 relative to 1990-1999 under IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. Large ensemble size, along with reasonably high modeling resolution, allows one to efficiently sample natural climate variability and increase our ability to predict future changes in the hydrological extremes. It has been shown that the annual maximum river discharge can almost double by the mid-XXI century in the outlets of major Siberian rivers. In the western regions, there is a weak signal in the river discharge and flood hazard, hardly discernible above climate variability. Annual maximum flood area is projected to increase across Siberia mostly by 2-5% relative to the baseline period. A contribution of natural climate variability at different temporal scales to the uncertainty of ensemble prediction is discussed. The analysis shows that there expected considerable changes in the extreme river discharge probability at locations of the key hydropower facilities. This suggests that the extensive impact studies are required to develop recommendations for maintaining regional energy security.

The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies — A Danish water management example

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Refsgaard, J.C.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Drews, Martin

2013-01-01

We propose a generic framework to characterize climate change adaptation uncertainty according to three dimensions: level, source and nature. Our framework is different, and in this respect more comprehensive, than the present UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approach and could...... be used to address concerns that the IPCC approach is oversimplified. We have studied the role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation planning using examples from four Danish water related sectors. The dominating sources of uncertainty differ greatly among issues; most uncertainties on impacts...

Communicating uncertainty: lessons learned and suggestions for climate change assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Patt, A.; Dessai, S.

2005-01-01

Assessments of climate change face the task of making information about uncertainty accessible and useful to decision-makers. The literature in behavior economics provides many examples of how people make decisions under conditions of uncertainty relying on inappropriate heuristics, leading to inconsistent and counterproductive choices. Modern risk communication practices recommend a number of methods to overcome these hurdles, which have been recommended for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports. This paper evaluates the success of the most recent IPCC approach to uncertainty communication, based on a controlled survey of climate change experts. Evaluating the results from the survey, and from a similar survey recently conducted among university students, the paper suggests that the most recent IPCC approach leaves open the possibility for biased and inconsistent responses to the information. The paper concludes by suggesting ways to improve the approach for future IPCC assessment reports. (authors)

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Data of evolutionary structure change: 1EP8B-1FAAA [Confc[Archive

Lifescience Database Archive (English)

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Applying a framework for landscape planning under climate change for the conservation of biodiversity in the Finnish boreal forest.

Science.gov (United States)

Mazziotta, Adriano; Triviño, Maria; Tikkanen, Olli-Pekka; Kouki, Jari; Strandman, Harri; Mönkkönen, Mikko

2015-02-01

Conservation strategies are often established without consideration of the impact of climate change. However, this impact is expected to threaten species and ecosystem persistence and to have dramatic effects towards the end of the 21st century. Landscape suitability for species under climate change is determined by several interacting factors including dispersal and human land use. Designing effective conservation strategies at regional scales to improve landscape suitability requires measuring the vulnerabilities of specific regions to climate change and determining their conservation capacities. Although methods for defining vulnerability categories are available, methods for doing this in a systematic, cost-effective way have not been identified. Here, we use an ecosystem model to define the potential resilience of the Finnish forest landscape by relating its current conservation capacity to its vulnerability to climate change. In applying this framework, we take into account the responses to climate change of a broad range of red-listed species with different niche requirements. This framework allowed us to identify four categories in which representation in the landscape varies among three IPCC emission scenarios (B1, low; A1B, intermediate; A2, high emissions): (i) susceptible (B1 = 24.7%, A1B = 26.4%, A2 = 26.2%), the most intact forest landscapes vulnerable to climate change, requiring management for heterogeneity and resilience; (ii) resilient (B1 = 2.2%, A1B = 0.5%, A2 = 0.6%), intact areas with low vulnerability that represent potential climate refugia and require conservation capacity maintenance; (iii) resistant (B1 = 6.7%, A1B = 0.8%, A2 = 1.1%), landscapes with low current conservation capacity and low vulnerability that are suitable for restoration projects; (iv) sensitive (B1 = 66.4%, A1B = 72.3%, A2 = 72.0%), low conservation capacity landscapes that are vulnerable and for which alternative conservation measures are required depending on the

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IPCC AR4 Simulations

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Future climate simulations (initial conditions from end of the 20th Century simulation):. “Committed Climate Change”: hold concentrations at year 2000; SRES A2 to 2100; SRES A1B to 2100 then fix concentrations (~720 ppm) for an additional century (with one realization extended to 2300); As above but with SRES B1 ...

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Climate Change in China : Exploring Informants' Perceptions of Climate Change through a Qualitative Approach

OpenAIRE

Lipin, Tan

2016-01-01

Climate change is not only a natural phenomenon, but also a global social issue. Many studies try to explore the mechanisms behind climate change and the consequences of climate change, and provide information for developing the measures to mitigate or adapt to it. For example, the IPCC reviews and assesses climate-change-related scientific information produced worldwide, thus aiming to support decision-making from a scientific perspective. However, though various international and regional c...

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Our knowledge on climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turkenburg, W.C.; Van Wijk, A.J.M.

1991-01-01

A workshop was organised to evaluate and discuss the report 'Scientific Assessment of Climate Change (1990)' of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Thirty prominent Dutch experts in the field attended the workshop. The introductions and discussions held on our knowledge of climatic change as a result of the growth of the greenhouse effect caused by the emission of greenhouse gases from human actions are presented. It is concluded that the IPCC-report shows in a clear and balanced way the certainties and uncertainties in our knowledge of climate change. There is a large chance that the earth's climate will change considerably, if the policy remains unamended. 15 figs., 2 apps

Data of evolutionary structure change: 1B26D-1AUPA [Confc[Archive

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Impacts of projected climate change on productivity and nitrogen leaching of crop rotations in arable and pig farming systems in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Doltra, Jordi; Lægdsmand, Mette; Olesen, Jørgen E

2014-01-01

The effects of projected changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration on productivity and nitrogen (N) leaching of characteristic arable and pig farming rotations in Denmark were investigated with the FASSET simulation model. The LARS weather generator was used to provide climatic data...... for the baseline period (1961–90) and in combination with two regional circulation models (RCM) to generate climatic data under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario for four different 20-year time slices (denoted by midpoints 2020, 2040, 2060 and 2080) for two locations...

Adaptation to climate change. Key terms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levina, E.; Tirpak, D.

2006-05-01

Adaptation has become an important issue in international and domestic discussions on climate change. Numerous terms and concepts have come into common usage as a result of IPCC reports, discussions in the context of the UNFCCC and dialogs by the climate community at large. This paper examines the key adaptation terms and concepts used by the climate change community and other institutions. Conflicts and contradictions are noted with the aim of sensitizing different bodies to the differences, but particularly the Parties to the Convention and experts participating in the IPCC. Given the need to promote a common understanding among various stakeholders and the potential financial implications of various definitions, it appears important for the IPCC and the UNFCCC to work toward common definitions, at least for a core set of terms and concepts

Trichloroethylene-induced gene expression and DNA methylation changes in B6C3F1 mouse liver.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan Jiang

Full Text Available Trichloroethylene (TCE, widely used as an organic solvent in the industry, is a common contaminant in air, soil, and water. Chronic TCE exposure induced hepatocellular carcinoma in mice, and occupational exposure in humans was suggested to be associated with liver cancer. To understand the role of non-genotoxic mechanism(s for TCE action, we examined the gene expression and DNA methylation changes in the liver of B6C3F1 mice orally administered with TCE (0, 100, 500 and 1000 mg/kg b.w. per day for 5 days. After 5 days TCE treatment at a dose level of 1000 mg/kg b.w., a total of 431 differentially expressed genes were identified in mouse liver by microarray, of which 291 were up-regulated and 140 down-regulated. The expression changed genes were involved in key signal pathways including PPAR, proliferation, apoptosis and homologous recombination. Notably, the expression level of a number of vital genes involved in the regulation of DNA methylation, such as Utrf1, Tet2, DNMT1, DNMT3a and DNMT3b, were dysregulated. Although global DNA methylation change was not detected in the liver of mice exposed to TCE, the promoter regions of Cdkn1a and Ihh were found to be hypo- and hypermethylated respectively, which correlated negatively with their mRNA expression changes. Furthermore, the gene expression and DNA methylation changes induced by TCE were dose dependent. The overall data indicate that TCE exposure leads to aberrant DNA methylation changes, which might alter the expression of genes involved in the TCE-induced liver tumorgenesis.

Changes in drug resistance patterns following the introduction of HIV type 1 non-B subtypes in Spain.

Science.gov (United States)

De Mendoza, Carmen; Garrido, Carolina; Poveda, Eva; Corral, Angélica; Zahonero, Natalia; Treviño, Ana; Anta, Lourdes; Soriano, Vincent

2009-10-01

Natural genetic variability at the pol gene may account for differences in drug susceptibility and selection of resistance patterns across HIV-1 clades. Spread of non-B subtypes along with changes in antiretroviral drug use may have modified drug resistance patterns in recent years. All HIV-1 clinical samples sent to a reference laboratory located in Madrid for drug resistance testing since January 2000 were analyzed. The pol gene was sequenced and HIV-1 subtypes were assigned using the Stanford algorithm and phylogenetic analyses for non-B subtypes. Drug resistance mutations were recorded using the IAS-USA mutation list (April 2008). A total of 3034 specimens from 730 antiretroviral-naive individuals (92 with non-B subtypes) and 1569 antiretroviral-experienced patients (97 with non-B subtypes) were examined. The prevalence of HIV-1 non-B subtypes in the study period increased from 4.4% (2000-2003) to 10.1% (2004-2007) (p 41.8%) and G (17.5%). Thymidine analogue mutations (TAMs) were more prevalent in B than non-B subtypes, in both drug-naive (6.2% vs. 1%; p < 0.01) and treatment-experienced patients (49% vs. 30%, p < 0.01). K103N was most frequent in B than non-B subtypes (34% vs. 21%; p < 0.01); conversely, 106A/M was more prevalent in non-B than B clades (11% vs. 5%). Codon 179 mutations associated with etravirine resistance were more frequent in non-B than B subtypes. Finally, secondary protease resistance mutations were more common in non-B than B clades, with a potentially significant impact at least on tipranavir. The prevalence of HIV-1 non-B subtypes has increased since the year 2000 in a large drug resistance database in Spain, determining changes in drug resistance patterns that may influence the susceptibility to new antiretroviral drugs and have an impact on genotypic drug resistance interpretation algorithms.

Prospects for medium and long term in light of the report on climate of IPCC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garozzo, M.

2007-01-01

Reports of the working group of the IPCC confirm that there are tools and technologies to achieve a reduction of the CO 2 in the Atmosphere. It is to intervene in the energy cycle by working on diverse lines of actions

Data of evolutionary structure change: 2QU0A-2DN1B [Confc[Archive

Lifescience Database Archive (English)

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The Inflammatory Transcription Factors NFκB, STAT1 and STAT3 Drive Age-Associated Transcriptional Changes in the Human Kidney

Science.gov (United States)

O’Brown, Zach K.; Van Nostrand, Eric L.; Higgins, John P.; Kim, Stuart K.

2015-01-01

Human kidney function declines with age, accompanied by stereotyped changes in gene expression and histopathology, but the mechanisms underlying these changes are largely unknown. To identify potential regulators of kidney aging, we compared age-associated transcriptional changes in the human kidney with genome-wide maps of transcription factor occupancy from ChIP-seq datasets in human cells. The strongest candidates were the inflammation-associated transcription factors NFκB, STAT1 and STAT3, the activities of which increase with age in epithelial compartments of the renal cortex. Stimulation of renal tubular epithelial cells with the inflammatory cytokines IL-6 (a STAT3 activator), IFNγ (a STAT1 activator), or TNFα (an NFκB activator) recapitulated age-associated gene expression changes. We show that common DNA variants in RELA and NFKB1, the two genes encoding subunits of the NFκB transcription factor, associate with kidney function and chronic kidney disease in gene association studies, providing the first evidence that genetic variation in NFκB contributes to renal aging phenotypes. Our results suggest that NFκB, STAT1 and STAT3 underlie transcriptional changes and chronic inflammation in the aging human kidney. PMID:26678048

2007 status of climate changes: synthesis report. Summary for policy-makers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

This Synthesis Report is based on the assessment carried out by the three Working Groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It provides an integrated view of climate change as the final part of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Topic 1 summarises observed changes in climate and their effects on natural and human systems, regardless of their causes, while topic 2 assesses the causes of the observed changes. Topic 3 presents projections of future climate change and related impacts under different scenarios. Topic 4 discusses adaptation and mitigation options over the next few decades and their interactions with sustainable development. Topic 5 assesses the relationship between adaptation and mitigation on a more conceptual basis and takes a longer-term perspective. Topic 6 summarises the major robust findings and remaining key uncertainties in this assessment

Preliminary forecasts of Pacific bigeye tuna population trends under the A2 IPCC scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Lehodey, P.; Senina, I.; Sibert, J.; Bopp, L.; Calmettes, B.; Hampton, J.; Murtugudde, R.

2010-07-01

An improved version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM was used to investigate the potential impacts of global warming on tuna populations. The model included an enhanced definition of habitat indices, movements, and accessibility of tuna predators to different vertically migrant and non-migrant micronekton functional groups. The simulations covered the Pacific basin (model domain) at a 2° × 2° geographic resolution. The structure of the model allows an evaluation from multiple data sources, and parameterization can be optimized by adjoint techniques and maximum likelihood using fishing data. A first such optimized parameterization was obtained for bigeye tuna ( Thunnus obesus) in the Pacific Ocean using historical catch data for the last 50 years and a hindcast from a coupled physical-biogeochemical model driven by the NCEP atmospheric reanalysis. The parameterization provided very plausible biological parameter values and a good fit to fishing data from the different fisheries, both within and outside the time period used for optimization. We then employed this model to forecast the future of bigeye tuna populations in the Pacific Ocean. The simulation was driven by the physical-biogeochemical fields predicted from a global marine biogeochemistry - climate simulation. This global simulation was performed with the IPSL climate model version 4 (IPSL-CM4) coupled to the oceanic biogeochemical model PISCES and forced by atmospheric CO 2, from historical records over 1860-2000, and under the SRES A2 IPCC scenario for the 21st century (i.e. atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaching 850 ppm in the year 2100). Potential future changes in distribution and abundance under the IPCC scenario are presented but without taking into account any fishing effort. The simulation showed an improvement in bigeye tuna spawning habitat both in subtropical latitudes and in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) where the surface temperature becomes optimal for

Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population

Science.gov (United States)

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Strœve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

2009-01-01

Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962–2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from ≈6,000 to ≈400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth. PMID:19171908

Age related changes in erythrocyte A and B antigen strength

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hollingsworth, J W; Hamilton, H B; Ishii, Goro

1961-11-01

The strength of A and B antigens of the erythrocyte, as indicated by agglutinability with dilutions of specific antibody, has been investigated in a group of subjects in Hiroshima. Antigen strength was found to rise to maximal levels at age 25 to 29, and decline with advancing years. Degree of irradiation from the Hiroshima atomic bomb in 1945 did not appear in the limited sample to affect this age-dependent structural property of erythrocytes. Antigen strength of females was somewhat less than that of males for those individuals from 20 to 40 years of age. When compared with group A or B subjects, individuals of group AB demonstrated full strength of both A and B antigens. Since Rh antigenicity also has been reported to change with age, it seems probable that multiple changes in the erythrocyte membrane occur with age. Further investigation into the nature of these changes may be fruitful to an understanding of aging processes at the cellular level. 13 references, 1 figure, 6 tables.

Development of water use scenarios as a tool for adaptation to climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Jacinto

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The project ADAPTACLIMA, promoted by EPAL, the largest Portuguese Water Supply Utility, aims to provide the company with an adaptation strategy in the medium and long term to reduce the vulnerability of its activities to climate change. We used the four scenarios (A1, A2, B1, B2 adopted in the Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to produce local scenarios of water use. Available population SRES for Portugal were downscaled to the study area using a linear approach. Local land use scenarios were produced using the following steps: (1 characterization of the present land use for each municipality of the study area using Corine Land Cover and adaptation of the CLC classes to those used in the SRES; (2 identification of recent tendencies in land use change for the study area; (3 identification of SRES tendencies for land use change in Europe; and (4 production of local scenarios of land use. Water use scenarios were derived considering both population and land use scenarios as well as scenarios of change in other parameters (technological developments, increases in efficiency, climate changes, or political and behavioural changes. The A2 scenario forecasts an increase in population (+16% in the study area while the other scenarios show a reduction in the resident population (−6 to 8%. All scenarios, but especially A1, show a reduction in agricultural area and an increase in urban area. Regardless of the scenario, water use will progressively be reduced until 2100. These reductions are mainly due to increased water use efficiency and the reduction of irrigated land. The results accord with several projects modelling water use at regional and global level.

Data of evolutionary structure change: 1JJ4B-1R8HE [Confc[Archive

Lifescience Database Archive (English)

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Outer Retinal Changes Including the Ellipsoid Zone Band in Usher Syndrome 1B due to MYO7A Mutations.

Science.gov (United States)

Sumaroka, Alexander; Matsui, Rodrigo; Cideciyan, Artur V; McGuigan, David B; Sheplock, Rebecca; Schwartz, Sharon B; Jacobson, Samuel G

2016-07-01

To study transition zones from normal to abnormal retina in Usher syndrome IB (USH1B) caused by myosin 7A (MYO7A) mutations. Optical coherence tomography (OCT) scattering layers in outer retina were segmented in patients (n = 16, ages 2-42; eight patients had serial data, average interval 4.5 years) to quantify outer nuclear layer (ONL) and outer segments (OS) as well as the locus of EZ (ellipsoid zone) edge and its extent from the fovea. Static perimetry was measured under dark-adapted (DA) and light-adapted (LA) conditions. Ellipsoid zone edge in USH1B-MYO7A could be located up to 23° from the fovea. Ellipsoid zone extent constricted at a rate of 0.51°/year with slower rates at smaller eccentricities. A well-defined EZ line could be associated with normal or abnormal ONL and/or OS thickness; detectable ONL extended well beyond EZ edge. At the EZ edge, the local slope of LA sensitivity loss was 2.6 (±1.7) dB/deg for central transition zones. At greater eccentricities, the local slope of cone sensitivity loss was shallower (1.1 ± 0.4 dB/deg for LA) than that of rod sensitivity loss (2.8 ± 1.2 dB/deg for DA). In USH1B-MYO7A, constriction rate of EZ extent depends on the initial eccentricity of the transition. Ellipsoid zone edges in the macula correspond to large local changes in cone vision, but extramacular EZ edges show more pronounced losses on rod-based vision tests. It is advisable to use not only the EZ line but also other structural and functional parameters for estimating natural history of disease and possible therapeutic effects in future clinical trials of USH1B-MYO7A.

Understanding climatic change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fellous, J.L.; Gautier, C.; Andre, J.C.; Balstad, R.; Boucher, O.; Brasseur, G.; Chahine, M.T.; Chanin, M.L.; Ciais, P.; Corell, W.; Duplessy, J.C.; Hourcade, J.C.; Jouzel, J.; Kaufman, Y.J.; Laval, K.; Le Treut, H.; Minster, J.F.; Moore, B. III; Morel, P.; Rasool, S.I.; Remy, F.; Smith, R.C.; Somerville, R.C.J.; Wood, E.F.; Wood, H.; Wunsch, C.

2007-01-01

Climatic change is gaining ground and with no doubt is stimulated by human activities. It is therefore urgent to better understand its nature, importance and potential impacts. The chapters of this book have been written by US and French experts of the global warming question. After a description of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, GIEC in French) consensus, they present the past and present researches on each of the main component of the climate system, on the question of climatic change impacts and on the possible answers. The conclusion summarizes the results of each chapter. Content: presentation of the IPCC; greenhouse effect, radiation balance and clouds; atmospheric aerosols and climatic change; global water cycle and climate; influence of climatic change on the continental hydrologic cycle; ocean and climate; ice and climate; global carbon cycle; about some impacts of climatic change on Europe and the Atlantic Ocean; interaction between atmospheric chemistry and climate; climate and society, the human dimension. (J.S.)

Climate change and critical thresholds in China's food security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xiong, Wei; Lin, Erda; Ju, Hui; Xu, Yinlong

2007-01-01

Identification of 'critical thresholds' of temperature increase is an essential task for inform policy decisions on establishing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. We use the A2 (medium-high GHG emission pathway) and B2 (medium-low) climate change scenarios produced by the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, the crop model - CERES, and socio-economic scenarios described by IPCC SRES, to simulate the average yield changes per hectare of three main grain crops (rice, wheat, and maize) at 50 km x 50 km scale. The threshold of food production to temperature increases was analyzed based on the relationship between yield changes and temperature rise, and then food security was discussed corresponding to each IPCC SRES scenario. The results show that without the CO2 fertilization effect in the analysis, the yield per hectare for the three crops would fall consistently as temperature rises beyond 2.5C; when the CO2 fertilization effect was included in the simulation, there were no adverse impacts on China's food production under the projected range of temperature rise (0.9-3.9C). A critical threshold of temperature increase was not found for food production. When the socio-economic scenarios, agricultural technology development and international trade were incorporated in the analysis, China's internal food production would meet a critical threshold of basic demand (300 kg/capita) while it would not under A2 (no CO2 fertilization); whereas basic food demand would be satisfied under both A2 and B2, and would even meet a higher food demand threshold required to sustain economic growth (400 kg/capita) under B2, when CO2 fertilization was considered

Climate change at global and regional scale

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dufresne, J.L.; Royer, J.F.

2008-01-01

In support of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that should appear in early 2007, modelling groups world-wide have performed a huge coordinated exercise of climate change runs for the 20. and 21. century. In this paper we present the results of the two french climate models, from CNRM and IPSL. In particular we emphasize the progress made since the previous IPCC report and we identify which results are comparable among models and which strongly differ. (authors)

Simulating Hydrologic Changes with Climate Change Scenarios in the Haihe River Basin

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

YUAN Fei; XIE Zheng-Hui; LIU Qian; XIA Jun

2005-01-01

Climate change scenarios, predicted using the regional climate modeling system of PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies), were used to derive three-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) land surface model for the simulation of hydrologic processes at a spatial resolution of 0.25°× 0.25° in the Haihe River Basin. Three climate scenaxios were considered in this study: recent climate (1961-1990), future climate A2 (1991-2100) and future climate B2 (1991-2100) with A2 and B2 being two storylines of future emissions developed with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report on emissions scenarios. Overall, under future climate scenarios A2 and B2, the Haihe River Basin would experience warmer climate with increased precipitation, evaporation and runoff production as compared with recent climate, but would be still likely prone to water shortages in the period of 2031-2070. In addition,under future climate A2 and B2, an increase in runoff during the wet season was noticed, indicating a future rise in the flood occurrence possibility in the Haihe River Basin.

2007 status of climate changes: synthesis report. Summary for policy-makers; Bilan 2007 des changements climatiques: rapport de synthese. Resume a l'intention des decideurs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-07-01

This Synthesis Report is based on the assessment carried out by the three Working Groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It provides an integrated view of climate change as the final part of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Topic 1 summarises observed changes in climate and their effects on natural and human systems, regardless of their causes, while topic 2 assesses the causes of the observed changes. Topic 3 presents projections of future climate change and related impacts under different scenarios. Topic 4 discusses adaptation and mitigation options over the next few decades and their interactions with sustainable development. Topic 5 assesses the relationship between adaptation and mitigation on a more conceptual basis and takes a longer-term perspective. Topic 6 summarises the major robust findings and remaining key uncertainties in this assessment.

IPCC Climate Change 2013: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Key findings and lessons learned

Science.gov (United States)

Giorgi, Filippo; Field, Christopher; Barros, Vicente

2014-05-01

The Working Group II contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergivernmental Panel on Climate Change, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, will be completed and approved in March 2014. It includes two parts, Part A covering Global and Sectoral Aspects, and Part B, covering Regional Aspects. The WGII report spans a very broad range of topics which are approached in a strong interdisciplinary context. It highlights how observed impacts of climate change are now widespread and consequential, particularly for natural systems, and can be observed on all continents and across the oceans. Vulnerability to climate change depends on interactions with non-climatic stressors and inequalities, resulting in highly differential risks associated with climate change. It is also found that adaptation is already occurring across scales and is embedded in many planning processes. Continued sustained warming thrughout the 21st century will exacerbate risks and vulnerabilities across multiple sectors, such as freshwater resources, terrestrial and inland water systems, coastal and marine systems, food production, human health, security and livelihood. The report stresses how risks and vulnerabilities need to be assessed within a multi-stressor and regionally specific context, and can be reduced and managed by adopting climate-resilient pathwyas combining suitable adaptation and mitigation options with synergies and tradeoffs occurring both within and across regions. The Working group II report includes a large number of Chapters (30) and contributors (310 including authors and review editors), with expertise in a broad range of disciplines, from the physical science to the impact and socio-economic sciences. The communication across chapters and disciplines has been a challenge, and will continue to be one as the Global Change problem will increasingly require a fully integrated and holistic approach. Note that text on this abstract is not approved at the time its

The changing world of climate change: Oregon leads the states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carver, P.H.; Sadler, S.; Kosloff, L.H.; Trexler, M.C.

1997-01-01

Following on the heels of recent national and international developments in climate change policy, Oregon's open-quote best-of-batch close-quote proceeding has validated the use of CO 2 offsets as a cost-effective means of advancing climate change mitigation goals. The proceeding was a first in several respects and represents a record commitment of funds to CO 2 mitigation by a private entity. In December 1995, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), issued its Second Assessment Report. The IPCC's conclusion that open-quotes[t]he balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climateclose quotes fundamentally changed the tenor of the policy debate regarding potential threats associated with global climate change. At the Climate Change Convention's Conference of the Parties (COP) in Geneva in July 1996, most countries, including the United States, advocated adopting the IPCC report as the basis for swift policy movement toward binding international emissions targets. The next COP, in December 1997, is scheduled to be the venue for the signing of a treaty protocol incorporating such targets. Binding targets would have major consequences for power plant operators in the US and around the world. Recent developments in the state of Oregon show the kinds of measures that may become commonplace at the state level in addressing climate change mitigation. First, Oregon recently completed the first administrative proceeding in the US aimed at offsetting the greenhouse gas emissions of a new power plant. Second, a legislatively mandated energy facility siting task force recently recommended that Oregon adopt a carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) standard for new power plant construction and drop use of the open-quotes need for powerclose quotes standard. This article reviews these two policy milestones and their implications for climate change mitigation in the United States

The understanding of world climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petit, M.

2008-01-01

After having recalled that the problem of global warming in relationship with human activities has been studied since the end of the nineteenth century and since then by different scientific programs, the author describes how the IPCC's or Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's report is produced. He briefly comments how Earth's temperature is determined and the various natural parameters which influence the climate on Earth. He recalls how the IPCC showed the actual influence of human activities, and which changes have actually been observed

Discovering the new RCP and SSP scenarios used by the IPCC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

This report presents the scenarios defined by a group of experts within the perspective of the 5. IPCC report. This four reference scenarios named RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) have been designed to foresee the evolution of concentrations of greenhouse gases, of ozone, and of aerosol precursors for the 21. century and beyond. The report also evokes the evolution of simulations used by climatologists, and the introduction of a representation of social and economic evolutions (definition of five families of scenario-types: sustainability, middle of the road, fragmentation, inequality, and conventional development). The consistency of these RCP scenarios and social-economical scenarios is outlined

2007 status of climate changes: synthesis report. Summary for policy-makers; Bilan 2007 des changements climatiques: rapport de synthese. Resume a l'intention des decideurs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-07-01

This Synthesis Report is based on the assessment carried out by the three Working Groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It provides an integrated view of climate change as the final part of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Topic 1 summarises observed changes in climate and their effects on natural and human systems, regardless of their causes, while topic 2 assesses the causes of the observed changes. Topic 3 presents projections of future climate change and related impacts under different scenarios. Topic 4 discusses adaptation and mitigation options over the next few decades and their interactions with sustainable development. Topic 5 assesses the relationship between adaptation and mitigation on a more conceptual basis and takes a longer-term perspective. Topic 6 summarises the major robust findings and remaining key uncertainties in this assessment.

Projected changes in terrestrial carbon storage in Europe under climate and land-use change, 1990-2100

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zaehle, S.; Bondeau, A.; Cramer, W.; Erhard, M.; Sitch, S.; Smith, P.C.; Zaehle, S.; Smith, P.C.; Carter, T.R.; Erhard, M.; Prentice, C.; Prentice, C.; Reginster, I.; Rounsevell, M.D.A.; Sitch, S.; Smith, B.; Sykes, M

2007-01-01

Changes in climate and land use, caused by socio-economic changes, greenhouse gas emissions, agricultural policies and other factors, are known to affect both natural and managed ecosystems, and will likely impact on the European terrestrial carbon balance during the coming decades. This study presents a comprehensive European Union wide (EU15 plus Norway and Switzerland, EU*) assessment of potential future changes in terrestrial carbon storage considering these effects based on four illustrative IPCC-SRES story-lines (A1FI, A2, B1, B2). A process-based land vegetation model (LPJ-DGVM), adapted to include a generic representation of managed ecosystems, is forced with changing fields of land-use patterns from 1901 to 2100 to assess the effect of land-use and cover changes on the terrestrial carbon balance of Europe. The uncertainty in the future carbon balance associated with the choice of a climate change scenario is assessed by forcing LPJ-DGVM with output from four different climate models (GCMs: CGCM2, CSIRO2, HadCM3, PCM2) for the same SRES story-line. Decrease in agricultural areas and afforestation leads to simulated carbon sequestration for all land-use change scenarios with an average net uptake of 17-38 Tg C/year between 1990 and 2100, corresponding to 1.9-2.9% of the EU*s CO 2 emissions over the same period. Soil carbon losses resulting from climate warming reduce or even offset carbon sequestration resulting from growth enhancement induced by climate change and increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations in the second half of the twenty-first century. Differences in future climate change projections among GCMs are the main cause for uncertainty in the cumulative European terrestrial carbon uptake of 4.4-10.1 Pg C between 1990 and 2100. (authors)

Trade Liberalization and Climate Change: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impacts on Global Agriculture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katrin Rehdanz

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the A1B and A2 scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on global agriculture, and its interactions with trade liberalization, as proposed for the Doha Development Round. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Significant reductions in agricultural tariffs lead to modest changes in regional water use. Patterns are non-linear. On the regional level, water use may go up for partial liberalization, and down for more complete liberalization. This is because different crops respond differently to tariff reductions, and because trade and competition matter too. Moreover, trade liberalization tends to reduce water use in water scarce regions, and increase water use in water abundant regions, even though water markets do not exist in most countries. Considering impacts of climate change, the results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall over time while food prices increase. Larger changes are observed under the SRES A2 scenario for the medium term (2020 and under the SRES A1B scenario for the long term (2050. Combining scenarios of future climate change with trade liberalization, countries are affected differently. However, the overall effect on welfare does not change much.

Intercomparison of IPCC AR4 models with ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis within the AFRICA-CORDEX domain

Science.gov (United States)

León, M.; González, Y.; Díaz, J. P.; Expósito, F. J.; Pérez, J. C.; González, A.

2012-04-01

One of the most useful techniques to obtain regional climate projections along the XXI century is to run a mesoscale model driven by coarse input data (initial and boundaries conditions) obtained from Atmosphere-Ocean coupled Global Circulation Models (AOGCM). This is the dynamical downscaling approach. To correctly configure the dynamical downscaling approach it is necessary to choose the correct input dataset that project the climatic situation in a more accurate way and to establish a boundary to the errors in the results associated to these input data. In this study, we consider that the agreement of models with present observations is a way to assign confidence to the quality of a model. With this aim we intercompare the surface temperature of 21 IPCC AR4 runs models with the results from the reanalysis databases ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR in the CORDEX-AFRICA domain in the period 1961-2000. Thus, we have studied the seasonal cycles of the four decades of this period in addition to the probability density functions (PDFs) of the IPCC models. The statistical study allows us to classify the IPCC AR4 models according to their discrepancies with reanalysis data for the CORDEX domain. In general, the MRI CGCM 2.3.2 IPCC AR4 model presents the best fits compared with the reanalysis databases regarding to the correlation factor, root mean square (rms) and PDF skill score. For the intercomparison with ERA-40, the percentage of points with rms lower than 2°C is over 80%, for the four decades; with 89% of the points showing correlations coefficients larger than 0.80 and a 76 % of the data presents skill-scores values, based on the common areas of the PDFs, above a threshold of 0.7. Acknowledgements The authors acknowledge to the MEC (Ministry of Education and Science, Spain) for the next supports: projects CGL2007-66477-C02-02/CLI, CGL2008-04740/CLI, CGL2010-21366-C04-01 and UNLL08-3E-007.

Risk and vulnerability to global and climate change in South Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Mambo, Julia

2017-12-01

Full Text Available of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [C.B. Field, V. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir et al. (eds)]. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.... Qin, Z. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. Averyt et al. (eds)]. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2012. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance...

Dominant frames in legacy and social media coverage of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, Saffron; Williams, Hywel T. P.; Kurz, Tim; Wiersma, Bouke; Boykoff, Maxwell

2015-04-01

The media are powerful agents that translate information across the science-policy interface, framing it for audiences. Yet frames are never neutral: they define an issue, identify causes, make moral judgements and shape proposed solutions. Here, we show how the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) was framed in UK and US broadcast and print coverage, and on Twitter. Coverage of IPCC Working Group I (WGI) was contested and politicized, employing the `Settled Science, Uncertain Science, Political or Ideological Struggle and Role of Science’ frames. WGII coverage commonly used Disaster or Security. More diverse frames were employed for WGII and WGIII, including Economics and Morality and Ethics. Framing also varied by media institution: for example, the BBC used Uncertain Science, whereas Channel 4 did not. Coverage varied by working group, with WGIII gaining far less coverage than WGI or WGII. We suggest that media coverage and framing of AR5 was influenced by its sequential three-part structure and by the availability of accessible narratives and visuals. We recommend that these communication lessons be applied to future climate science reports.

Climate change negotiations. COP-2 and beyond

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1996-09-01

The Second Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP-2), which met in Geneva during July, 1996, was only a partial success when considered in relation to its avowed aims, gaining acceptance of the Second Assessment Report by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), producing an agreed Ministerial Declaration, making real advances towards a protocol, and agreeing Rules of Procedure. This paper describes the main aims of COP-2, consideration of and response to the IPCC`s Second Assessment Report, the COP-2 Ministerial Declaration, some significant statements by individual country delegations at COP-2, lack of progress on Rules of Procedure for the Conference, realization of returning the greenhouse gas emissions in industrialized countries based on the Montreal Protocol, differing views among countries to the Convention on a protocol, prospects for achieving agreement on a legally binding protocol at COP-3 planned for Kyoto, Japan in December, 1997, and recent scientific and technical findings.

Incidência de fumonisina B1, aflatoxinas B1, B2, G1 e G2, ocratoxina A e zearalenona em produtos de milho Occurrence of fumonisin B1, aflatoxins B1, B2, G1, and G2, ochratoxin A and zearalenone in corn products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luciane Mie Kawashima

2006-09-01

Full Text Available Levantamentos de ocorrência de micotoxinas em alimentos foram realizados nas últimas duas décadas nas regiões Sudeste e Sul do Brasil. Levantamentos em alimentos comercializados em outras regiões têm-se limitado a aflatoxinas em amendoim e castanhas do Brasil. O presente trabalho pesquisou a presença de fumonisina B1, aflatoxinas B1, B2, G1 e G2, ocratoxina A e zearalenona em 74 amostras de produtos a base de milho adquiridas no comércio da cidade de Recife, PE, durante o período de 1999 a 2001. Fumonisina B1 foi determinada por cromatografia líquida de alta eficiência com detecção por fluorescência e as demais toxinas foram determinadas por cromatografia em camada delgada. Fumonisina B1 foi encontrada em 94,6% das amostras em concentrações variando de 20 a 8600 µg/kg. Apenas 5 amostras continham aflatoxina B1 e o teor máximo encontrado foi 20 µg/kg. Duas amostras ultrapassaram o limite de 20 µg/kg para a somatória das aflatoxinas B1, B2, G1 e G2 (farinha de milho pré-cozida com 21,5 µg/kg e quirera (xerém com 23,3 µg/kg. As aflatoxinas G1 e G2, ocratoxina A e zearalenona não foram detectadas em nenhuma das amostras. Todas as amostras contaminadas com aflatoxinas também apresentaram fumonisina B1.Research concerning the presence of mycotoxin in food has been conducted in the Southwest and South regions of Brazil over the last two decades. Research in other regions has been limited to aflatoxin in peanuts and Brazil nuts. The aim of this work is to study the presence of fumonisin B1, aflatoxins B1, B2, G1, and G2, ochratoxin A and zearalenone in 74 samples of corn products acquired in shops and food markets in the city of Recife (PE from 1999 to 2001. Fumonisin B1 was determined by high performance liquid chromatography and fluorescence was detected. The other toxins were determined by thin layer chromatography. Fumonisin B1 was found in 94.6% of the samples in levels from 20 to 8600 µg/kg. Only 5 samples contained

Changes of cell growth and magnetosome biomineralization in Magnetospirillum magneticum AMB-1 after ultraviolet-B irradiation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yinzhao eWang

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Effects of ultraviolet radiation on microorganisms are of great interest in field of microbiology and planetary sciences. In the present study, we used Magnetospirillum magneticum AMB-1 as a model organism to examine the influence of ultraviolet-B (UV-B radiation on cell growth and magnetite biomineralization of magnetotactic bacteria. Live AMB-1 cells were exposed to UV-B radiation for 60 s, 300 s and 900 s, which correspond to radiation doses of 120 J/m2, 600 J/m2 and 1800 J/m2, respectively. After irradiation, the amounts of cyclobutane pyrimidine dimers and reactive oxygen species of the cells were increased, and cell growth was stunted up to ~170 h, depending on the UV-B radiation doses. The UV-B irradiated cells also produced on average more magnetite crystals with larger grain sizes and longer chains, which results in changes of their magnetic properties.

Climate change research - Danish contributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joergensen, A.M.K.; Fenger, J.; Halsnaes, K.

2001-01-01

The book describes a series of Danish scientific and technical studies. They broadly reflect the fields and disciplines embraced by assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but with an emphasis on natural sciences (i.e. climate investigations and impact studies). After the general introduction, that presents the issue and gives a summary of the content of the book, the chapters are organised in four parts: 1. The Climate System and Climate Variations. 2. Climate Change Scenarios. 3. Impacts of Climate Change. 4. Policy Aspects. Each chapter is indexed separately. (LN)

Changes in B Cell Populations and Merozoite Surface Protein-1-Specific Memory B Cell Responses after Prolonged Absence of Detectable P. falciparum Infection.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cyrus Ayieko

Full Text Available Clinical immunity to malaria declines in the absence of repeated parasite exposure. However, little is known about how B cell populations and antigen-specific memory B cells change in the absence of P. falciparum infection. A successful indoor residual insecticide spraying campaign in a highland area of western Kenya, led to an absence of blood-stage P. falciparum infection between March 2007 and April 2008. We assessed memory B cell responses in 45 adults at the beginning (April 2008 and end (April 2009 of a subsequent 12-month period during which none of the adults had evidence of asymptomatic parasitemia or clinical disease. Antibodies and memory B cells to the 42-kDa portion of the merozoite surface protein-1 (MSP-142 were measured using ELISA and ELISPOT assays, respectively. B cell populations were characterized by flow cytometry. From 2008 to 2009, the prevalence of MSP-142-specific memory B cells (45% vs. 55%, respectively, P = 0.32 or antibodies (91% vs. 82%, respectively, P = 0.32 did not differ significantly, although specific individuals did change from positive to negative and vice versa, particularly for memory B cells, suggesting possible low-level undetected parasitemia may have occurred in some individuals. The magnitude of MSP-142-specific memory B cells and levels of antibodies to MSP-142 also did not differ from 2008 to 2009 (P>0.10 for both. However, from 2008 to 2009 the proportions of both class-switched atypical (CD19+IgD-CD27-CD21-IgM- and class-switched activated (CD19+IgD-CD27+CD21-IgM- memory B cells decreased (both P<0.001. In contrast, class-switched resting classical memory B cells (CD19+IgD-CD27+CD21+IgM- increased (P<0.001. In this area of seasonal malaria transmission, a one- year absence of detectable P. falciparum infection was not associated with changes in the prevalence or level of MSP-142 specific memory B cells, but was associated with major changes in overall memory B cell subsets.

Climate change implications for wind power resources in the Northwest United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sailor, David J.; Smith, Michael; Hart, Melissa

2008-01-01

Using statistically downscaled output from four general circulation models (GCMs), we have investigated scenarios of climate change impacts on wind power generation potential in a five-state region within the Northwest United States (Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming). All GCM simulations were extracted from the standardized set of runs created for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Analysis of model runs for the 20th century (20c3m) simulations revealed that the direct output of wind statistics from these models is of relatively poor quality compared with observations at airport weather stations within each state. When the GCM output was statistically downscaled, the resulting estimates of current climate wind statistics are substantially better. Furthermore, in looking at the GCM wind statistics for two IPCC future climate scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES A1B and A2), there was significant disagreement in the direct model output from the four GCMs. When statistical downscaling was applied to the future climate simulations, a more coherent story unfolded related to the likely impact of climate change on the region's wind power resource. Specifically, the results suggest that summertime wind speeds in the Northwest may decrease by 5-10%, while wintertime wind speeds may decrease by relatively little, or possibly increase slightly. When these wind statistics are projected to typical turbine hub heights and nominal wind turbine power curves are applied, the impact of the climate change scenarios on wind power may be as high as a 40% reduction in summertime generation potential. (author)

Climate change and critical thresholds in China's food security

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xiong, Wei; Lin, Erda; Ju, Hui; Xu, Yinlong [Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing (China)

2007-03-15

Identification of 'critical thresholds' of temperature increase is an essential task for inform policy decisions on establishing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. We use the A2 (medium-high GHG emission pathway) and B2 (medium-low) climate change scenarios produced by the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, the crop model - CERES, and socio-economic scenarios described by IPCC SRES, to simulate the average yield changes per hectare of three main grain crops (rice, wheat, and maize) at 50 km x 50 km scale. The threshold of food production to temperature increases was analyzed based on the relationship between yield changes and temperature rise, and then food security was discussed corresponding to each IPCC SRES scenario. The results show that without the CO2 fertilization effect in the analysis, the yield per hectare for the three crops would fall consistently as temperature rises beyond 2.5C; when the CO2 fertilization effect was included in the simulation, there were no adverse impacts on China's food production under the projected range of temperature rise (0.9-3.9C). A critical threshold of temperature increase was not found for food production. When the socio-economic scenarios, agricultural technology development and international trade were incorporated in the analysis, China's internal food production would meet a critical threshold of basic demand (300 kg/capita) while it would not under A2 (no CO2 fertilization); whereas basic food demand would be satisfied under both A2 and B2, and would even meet a higher food demand threshold required to sustain economic growth (400 kg/capita) under B2, when CO2 fertilization was considered.

Effect of incisor inclination changes on cephalometric points a and b

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hassan, S.; Shaikh, A.; Fida, M.

2015-01-01

The position of cephalometric points A and B are liable to be affected by alveolar remodelling caused by orthodontic tooth movement during incisor retraction. This study was conducted to evaluate the change in positions of cephalometric points A and B in sagittal and vertical dimensions due to change in incisor inclinations. Methods: Total sample of 31 subjects were recruited into the study. The inclusion criteria were extraction of premolars in upper and lower arches, completion of growth and orthodontic treatment. The exclusion criteria were patients with craniofacial anomalies and history of orthodontic treatment. By superimposition of pre and post treatment tracings, various linear and angular parameters were measured. Various tests and multiple linear regression analysis were performed to determine changes in outcome variables. Statistically significant p-value was <0.05. Results:One-sample t-test showed that change in position of only point A was statistically significant which was 1.61mm (p<0.01) in sagittal direction and 1.49mm (p<0.01) in vertical direction. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that if we retrocline upper incisor by 100, the point A will move superiorly by 0.6mm. Conclusions: Total change in the position of point A is in a downward and forward direction. Total Change in upper incisors inclinations causes change in position of point A only in vertical direction. (author)

Changing Climate in the MENA Means Changing Energy Needs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adam Fenech

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The leading authority on climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC hasconcluded that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and will continue for centuries. The regionsin the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA have experienced numerous extreme climate events overthe past few years including the 2009 flooding in Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; the 2005 dust stormin Al Asad, Iraq; water scarcity throughout the Arab MENA; and the rising sea levels on the Nile Deltacoast, Egypt. A climate baseline can be developed for regions in the MENA by locating climate stations inthe study area using observations made in the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS. For projectionsof future climate, global climate models (GCMs, mathematical equations that describe the physics, fluidmotion and chemistry of the atmosphere, are the most advanced science available. The Climate ResearchLab at the University of Prince Edward Island has a dataset available to researchers, called the Climate,Ocean and Atmosphere Data Exchange (COADE, that provides easy access to the output from fortyglobal climate models used in the deliberations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s(IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 including monthly global climate model projections of future climatechange for a number of climate parameters including temperature and precipitation. Over the past 50years, climate changes in the MENA Region have led to increases in annual mean temperatures anddecreases in annual total precipitation. Applying all four greenhouse gas emission futures on a baseclimate normal of 1981-2010 to an ensemble of forty global climate models used in the Fifth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5 results in future temperatureincreases for the MENA Region ranging from 1.6 to 2.3 degrees Celsius, and in a range of futureprecipitation changes from reductions of 11 percent to increases of 36 percent

The social costs of climate change. The IPCC second assessment report and beyond

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fankhauser, S.; Tol, R.S.J.

1997-01-01

Climate change is expected to have far-reaching impacts. Earlier studies have estimated an aggregated monetised damage equivalent to 1.5 to 2.0 % of World GDP (for 2 x CO2). According to these estimates, the OECD would face losses equivalent to 1.0 to 1.5 % of GDP, and developing countries 2.0 to 9.0 %. While these figures are preliminary and highly uncertain, recent findings have not, as yet, changed the general picture. As is shown in this paper, estimates that are fully corrected for differences in purchasing power parity do not significantly differ from the initial figures. Newer studies increasingly emphasise adaptation, variability, extreme events, other (non-climate change) stress factors, and the need for integrated assessment of damages. Incorporating these factors has lead to increased differences in estimated impacts between different regions and sectors. Estimates of market impacts in developed countries tended to fall, while non-market impacts have become more important. Marginal damages are more interesting from a policy point of view. Earlier estimates range from about $5 to $125 per tonne of carbon, with most estimates at the lower end of this range. These figures are based on power functions in the level of climate change. The rate of change may be equally important, as are the speed of adaptation, restoration and value adjustment. Furthermore, future vulnerability to climate change will differ from current vulnerability: market impacts could fall (relatively) with economic growth while non-market impacts may rise. 6 tabs., 65 refs

Beyond naturalness: Adapting wilderness stewardship to an era of rapid global change

Science.gov (United States)

David N. Cole

2012-01-01

Climate change and its effects are writ large across wilderness landscapes. They always have been and always will be (see Figure 1). But contemporary change is different. For the first time, the pace and direction of climate change appear to be driven significantly by human activities (IPCC 2007), and this change is playing out across landscapes already affected by...

The origin of climate changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Delecluse, P

2008-08-01

Investigation on climate change is coordinated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has the delicate task of collecting recent knowledge on climate change and the related impacts of the observed changes, and then developing a consensus statement from these findings. The IPCC's last review, published at the end of 2007, summarised major findings on the present climate situation. The observations show a clear increase in the temperature of the Earth's surface and the oceans, a reduction in the land snow cover, and melting of the sea ice and glaciers. Numerical modelling combined with statistical analysis has shown that this warming trend is very likely the signature of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases linked with human activities. Given the continuing social and economic development around the world, the IPCC emission scenarios forecast an increasing greenhouse effect, at least until 2050 according to the most optimistic models. The model ensemble predicts a rising temperature that will reach dangerous levels for the biosphere and ecosystems within this century. Hydrological systems and the potential significant impacts of these systems on the environment are also discussed. Facing this challenging future, societies must take measures to reduce emissions and work on adapting to an inexorably changing environment. Present knowledge is sufficientto start taking action, but a stronger foundation is needed to ensure that pertinent long-term choices are made that will meet the demands of an interactive and rapidly evolving world.

Scientific Integrity and Consensus in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Process

Science.gov (United States)

Barrett, K.

2017-12-01

Scientific integrity is the hallmark of any assessment and is a paramount consideration in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment process. Procedures are in place for rigorous scientific review and to quantify confidence levels and uncertainty in the communication of key findings. However, the IPCC is unique in that its reports are formally accepted by governments through consensus agreement. This presentation will present the unique requirements of the IPCC intergovernmental assessment and discuss the advantages and challenges of its approach.

Global climate change: an unequivocal reality; Cambio climatico global: una realidad inequivoca

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Raynal-Villasenor, J.A. [Universidad de las Americas, Puebla, Puebla (Mexico)]. E-mail: josea.raynal@udlap.mx

2011-10-15

During several years, a long discussion has taken place over the reality of global climate change phenomenon and, if there is one, what could be its cause. Once the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC, 2007) - IPCC is part the United Nations Organization (UN) - was published, it was stated that there is a developing global climatic change and that the cause is unequivocally related with the human activity in the planet Earth. In this paper, relevant information is given about the development of global climatic change issues and some actions are mentioned that each human being of this planet can implement to mitigate it, since it has been accepted that it's impossible to stop it. [Spanish] Durante varios anos se ha discutido si existe un cambio climatico global y, si lo hay, cual es su causa. Una vez publicado el 4o. Reporte de Valoracion del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climatico (IPCC, 2007) - el IPCC es parte de la Organizacion de las Naciones Unidas (ONU) - se preciso que hay un cambio climatico global en desarrollo y la causa inequivoca que lo esta produciendo es la actividad humana en el planeta Tierra, tambien se hablo en el IPCC de las causas naturales por las cuales el planeta se esta calentando. En el presente articulo, se da informacion relevante al cambio climatico global en desarrollo y se mencionan algunas acciones que cada ser humano de este planeta puede implementar para mitigarlo, ya que es imposible detenerlo.

Impact of climate change on Precipitation and temperature under the RCP 8.5 and A1B scenarios in an Alpine Cathment (Alto-Genil Basin,southeast Spain). A comparison of statistical downscaling methods

Science.gov (United States)

Pulido-Velazquez, David; Juan Collados-Lara, Antonio; Pardo-Iguzquiza, Eulogio; Jimeno-Saez, Patricia; Fernandez-Chacon, Francisca

2016-04-01

In order to design adaptive strategies to global change we need to assess the future impact of climate change on water resources, which depends on precipitation and temperature series in the systems. The objective of this work is to generate future climate series in the "Alto Genil" Basin (southeast Spain) for the period 2071-2100 by perturbing the historical series using different statistical methods. For this targeted we use information coming from regionals climate model simulations (RCMs) available in two European projects, CORDEX (2013), with a spatial resolution of 12.5 km, and ENSEMBLES (2009), with a spatial resolution of 25 km. The historical climate series used for the period 1971-2000 have been obtained from Spain02 project (2012) which has the same spatial resolution that CORDEX project (both use the EURO-CORDEX grid). Two emission scenarios have been considered: the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario, which is the most unfavorable scenario considered in the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and the A1B emission scenario of fourth Assessment Report (AR4). We use the RCM simulations to create an ensemble of predictions weighting their information according to their ability to reproduce the main statistic of the historical climatology. A multi-objective analysis has been performed to identify which models are better in terms of goodness of fit to the cited statistic of the historical series. The ensemble of the CORDEX and the ENSEMBLES projects has been finally created with nine and four models respectively. These ensemble series have been used to assess the anomalies in mean and standard deviation (differences between the control and future RCM series). A "delta-change" method (Pulido-Velazquez et al., 2011) has been applied to define future series by modifying the historical climate series in accordance with the cited anomalies in mean and standard deviation. A

Effect of climate change on Aspergillus flavus and aflatoxin B1 production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Angel eMedina

2014-07-01

Full Text Available This review considers the available information on the potential impact of key environmental factors and their interactions on the molecular ecology, growth and aflatoxin production by Aspergillus flavus in vitro and in maize grain. The recent studies which have been carried out to examine the impact of water activity x temperature on aflatoxin biosynthesis and phenotypic aflatoxin production are examined. These have shown that there is a direct relationship between the relative expression of key regulatory and structural genes under different environmental conditions which correlate directly with aflatoxin B1 production. A model has been developed to integrate the relative expression of 10 biosynthetic genes in the pathway, growth and aflatoxin B1 (AFB1 production which was validated under elevated temperature and water stress conditions. The effect of interacting conditions of aw x temperature x elevated CO2 (2x and 3x existing levels are detailed for the first time. This suggests that while such interacting environmental conditions have little effect on growth they do have a significant impact on aflatoxin biosynthetic gene expression (structural aflD and regulatory aflR genes and can significantly stimulate the production of AFB1. While the individual factors alone have an impact, it is the combined effect of these three abiotic factors which have an impact on mycotoxin production. This approach provides data which is necessary to help predict the real impacts of climate change on mycotoxigenic fungi.

Evidence for the Strangeness-Changing Weak Decay Ξ_{b}^{-}→Λ_{b}^{0}π^{-}.

Science.gov (United States)

Aaij, R; Abellán Beteta, C; Adeva, B; Adinolfi, M; Affolder, A; Ajaltouni, Z; Akar, S; Albrecht, J; Alessio, F; Alexander, M; Ali, S; Alkhazov, G; Alvarez Cartelle, P; Alves, A A; Amato, S; Amerio, S; Amhis, Y; An, L; Anderlini, L; Anderson, J; Andreassi, G; Andreotti, M; Andrews, J E; Appleby, R B; Aquines Gutierrez, O; Archilli, F; d'Argent, P; Artamonov, A; Artuso, M; Aslanides, E; Auriemma, G; Baalouch, M; Bachmann, S; Back, J J; Badalov, A; Baesso, C; Baldini, W; Barlow, R J; Barschel, C; Barsuk, S; Barter, W; Batozskaya, V; Battista, V; Bay, A; Beaucourt, L; Beddow, J; Bedeschi, F; Bediaga, I; Bel, L J; Bellee, V; Belloli, N; Belyaev, I; Ben-Haim, E; Bencivenni, G; Benson, S; Benton, J; Berezhnoy, A; Bernet, R; Bertolin, A; Bettler, M-O; van Beuzekom, M; Bien, A; Bifani, S; Billoir, P; Bird, T; Birnkraut, A; Bizzeti, A; Blake, T; Blanc, F; Blouw, J; Blusk, S; Bocci, V; Bondar, A; Bondar, N; Bonivento, W; Borghi, S; Borisyak, M; Borsato, M; Bowcock, T J V; Bowen, E; Bozzi, C; Braun, S; Britsch, M; Britton, T; Brodzicka, J; Brook, N H; Buchanan, E; Burr, C; Bursche, A; Buytaert, J; Cadeddu, S; Calabrese, R; Calvi, M; Calvo Gomez, M; Campana, P; Campora Perez, D; Capriotti, L; Carbone, A; Carboni, G; Cardinale, R; Cardini, A; Carniti, P; Carson, L; Carvalho Akiba, K; Casse, G; Cassina, L; Castillo Garcia, L; Cattaneo, M; Cauet, Ch; Cavallero, G; Cenci, R; Charles, M; Charpentier, Ph; Chefdeville, M; Chen, S; Cheung, S-F; Chiapolini, N; Chrzaszcz, M; Cid Vidal, X; Ciezarek, G; Clarke, P E L; Clemencic, M; Cliff, H V; Closier, J; Coco, V; Cogan, J; Cogneras, E; Cogoni, V; Cojocariu, L; Collazuol, G; Collins, P; Comerma-Montells, A; Contu, A; Cook, A; Coombes, M; Coquereau, S; Corti, G; Corvo, M; Couturier, B; Cowan, G A; Craik, D C; Crocombe, A; Cruz Torres, M; Cunliffe, S; Currie, R; D'Ambrosio, C; Dall'Occo, E; Dalseno, J; David, P N Y; Davis, A; De Aguiar Francisco, O; De Bruyn, K; De Capua, S; De Cian, M; De Miranda, J M; De Paula, L; De Simone, P; Dean, C-T; Decamp, D; Deckenhoff, M; Del Buono, L; Déléage, N; Demmer, M; Derkach, D; Deschamps, O; Dettori, F; Dey, B; Di Canto, A; Di Ruscio, F; Dijkstra, H; Donleavy, S; Dordei, F; Dorigo, M; Dosil Suárez, A; Dossett, D; Dovbnya, A; Dreimanis, K; Dufour, L; Dujany, G; Durante, P; Dzhelyadin, R; Dziurda, A; Dzyuba, A; Easo, S; Egede, U; Egorychev, V; Eidelman, S; Eisenhardt, S; Eitschberger, U; Ekelhof, R; Eklund, L; El Rifai, I; Elsasser, Ch; Ely, S; Esen, S; Evans, H M; Evans, T; Falabella, A; Färber, C; Farley, N; Farry, S; Fay, R; Ferguson, D; Fernandez Albor, V; Ferrari, F; Ferreira Rodrigues, F; Ferro-Luzzi, M; Filippov, S; Fiore, M; Fiorini, M; Firlej, M; Fitzpatrick, C; Fiutowski, T; Fohl, K; Fol, P; Fontana, M; Fontanelli, F; Forshaw, D C; Forty, R; Frank, M; Frei, C; Frosini, M; Fu, J; Furfaro, E; Gallas Torreira, A; Galli, D; Gallorini, S; Gambetta, S; Gandelman, M; Gandini, P; Gao, Y; García Pardiñas, J; Garra Tico, J; Garrido, L; Gascon, D; Gaspar, C; Gauld, R; Gavardi, L; Gazzoni, G; Gerick, D; Gersabeck, E; Gersabeck, M; Gershon, T; Ghez, Ph; Gianì, S; Gibson, V; Girard, O G; Giubega, L; Gligorov, V V; Göbel, C; Golubkov, D; Golutvin, A; Gomes, A; Gotti, C; Grabalosa Gándara, M; Graciani Diaz, R; Granado Cardoso, L A; Graugés, E; Graverini, E; Graziani, G; Grecu, A; Greening, E; Gregson, S; Griffith, P; Grillo, L; Grünberg, O; Gui, B; Gushchin, E; Guz, Yu; Gys, T; Hadavizadeh, T; Hadjivasiliou, C; Haefeli, G; Haen, C; Haines, S C; Hall, S; Hamilton, B; Han, X; Hansmann-Menzemer, S; Harnew, N; Harnew, S T; Harrison, J; He, J; Head, T; Heijne, V; Hennessy, K; Henrard, P; Henry, L; van Herwijnen, E; Heß, M; Hicheur, A; Hill, D; Hoballah, M; Hombach, C; Hulsbergen, W; Humair, T; Hussain, N; Hutchcroft, D; Hynds, D; Idzik, M; Ilten, P; Jacobsson, R; Jaeger, A; Jalocha, J; Jans, E; Jawahery, A; John, M; Johnson, D; Jones, C R; Joram, C; Jost, B; Jurik, N; Kandybei, S; Kanso, W; Karacson, M; Karbach, T M; Karodia, S; Kecke, M; Kelsey, M; Kenyon, I R; Kenzie, M; Ketel, T; Khairullin, E; Khanji, B; Khurewathanakul, C; Klaver, S; Klimaszewski, K; Kochebina, O; Kolpin, M; Komarov, I; Koopman, R F; Koppenburg, P; Kozeiha, M; Kravchuk, L; Kreplin, K; Kreps, M; Krocker, G; Krokovny, P; Kruse, F; Krzemien, W; Kucewicz, W; Kucharczyk, M; Kudryavtsev, V; Kuonen, A K; Kurek, K; Kvaratskheliya, T; Lacarrere, D; Lafferty, G; Lai, A; Lambert, D; Lanfranchi, G; Langenbruch, C; Langhans, B; Latham, T; Lazzeroni, C; Le Gac, R; van Leerdam, J; Lees, J-P; Lefèvre, R; Leflat, A; Lefrançois, J; Lemos Cid, E; Leroy, O; Lesiak, T; Leverington, B; Li, Y; Likhomanenko, T; Liles, M; Lindner, R; Linn, C; Lionetto, F; Liu, B; Liu, X; Loh, D; Longstaff, I; Lopes, J H; Lucchesi, D; Lucio Martinez, M; Luo, H; Lupato, A; Luppi, E; Lupton, O; Lusiani, A; Machefert, F; Maciuc, F; Maev, O; Maguire, K; Malde, S; Malinin, A; Manca, G; Mancinelli, G; Manning, P; Mapelli, A; Maratas, J; Marchand, J F; Marconi, U; Marin Benito, C; Marino, P; Marks, J; Martellotti, G; Martin, M; Martinelli, M; Martinez Santos, D; Martinez Vidal, F; Martins Tostes, D; Massafferri, A; Matev, R; Mathad, A; Mathe, Z; Matteuzzi, C; Mauri, A; Maurin, B; Mazurov, A; McCann, M; McCarthy, J; McNab, A; McNulty, R; Meadows, B; Meier, F; Meissner, M; Melnychuk, D; Merk, M; Michielin, E; Milanes, D A; Minard, M-N; Mitzel, D S; Molina Rodriguez, J; Monroy, I A; Monteil, S; Morandin, M; Morawski, P; Mordà, A; Morello, M J; Moron, J; Morris, A B; Mountain, R; Muheim, F; Müller, D; Müller, J; Müller, K; Müller, V; Mussini, M; Muster, B; Naik, P; Nakada, T; Nandakumar, R; Nandi, A; Nasteva, I; Needham, M; Neri, N; Neubert, S; Neufeld, N; Neuner, M; Nguyen, A D; Nguyen, T D; Nguyen-Mau, C; Niess, V; Niet, R; Nikitin, N; Nikodem, T; Novoselov, A; O'Hanlon, D P; Oblakowska-Mucha, A; Obraztsov, V; Ogilvy, S; Okhrimenko, O; Oldeman, R; Onderwater, C J G; Osorio Rodrigues, B; Otalora Goicochea, J M; Otto, A; Owen, P; Oyanguren, A; Palano, A; Palombo, F; Palutan, M; Panman, J; Papanestis, A; Pappagallo, M; Pappalardo, L L; Pappenheimer, C; Parker, W; Parkes, C; Passaleva, G; Patel, G D; Patel, M; Patrignani, C; Pearce, A; Pellegrino, A; Penso, G; Pepe Altarelli, M; Perazzini, S; Perret, P; Pescatore, L; Petridis, K; Petrolini, A; Petruzzo, M; Picatoste Olloqui, E; Pietrzyk, B; Pilař, T; Pinci, D; Pistone, A; Piucci, A; Playfer, S; Plo Casasus, M; Poikela, T; Polci, F; Poluektov, A; Polyakov, I; Polycarpo, E; Popov, A; Popov, D; Popovici, B; Potterat, C; Price, E; Price, J D; Prisciandaro, J; Pritchard, A; Prouve, C; Pugatch, V; Puig Navarro, A; Punzi, G; Qian, W; Quagliani, R; Rachwal, B; Rademacker, J H; Rama, M; Ramos Pernas, M; Rangel, M S; Raniuk, I; Rauschmayr, N; Raven, G; Redi, F; Reichert, S; Reid, M M; Dos Reis, A C; Ricciardi, S; Richards, S; Rihl, M; Rinnert, K; Rives Molina, V; Robbe, P; Rodrigues, A B; Rodrigues, E; Rodriguez Lopez, J A; Rodriguez Perez, P; Roiser, S; Romanovsky, V; Romero Vidal, A; Ronayne, J W; Rotondo, M; Ruf, T; Ruiz Valls, P; Saborido Silva, J J; Sagidova, N; Sail, P; Saitta, B; Salustino Guimaraes, V; Sanchez Mayordomo, C; Sanmartin Sedes, B; Santacesaria, R; Santamarina Rios, C; Santimaria, M; Santovetti, E; Sarti, A; Satriano, C; Satta, A; Saunders, D M; Savrina, D; Schiller, M; Schindler, H; Schlupp, M; Schmelling, M; Schmelzer, T; Schmidt, B; Schneider, O; Schopper, A; Schubiger, M; Schune, M-H; Schwemmer, R; Sciascia, B; Sciubba, A; Semennikov, A; Serra, N; Serrano, J; Sestini, L; Seyfert, P; Shapkin, M; Shapoval, I; Shcheglov, Y; Shears, T; Shekhtman, L; Shevchenko, V; Shires, A; Siddi, B G; Silva Coutinho, R; Silva de Oliveira, L; Simi, G; Sirendi, M; Skidmore, N; Skwarnicki, T; Smith, E; Smith, E; Smith, I T; Smith, J; Smith, M; Snoek, H; Sokoloff, M D; Soler, F J P; Soomro, F; Souza, D; Souza De Paula, B; Spaan, B; Spradlin, P; Sridharan, S; Stagni, F; Stahl, M; Stahl, S; Stefkova, S; Steinkamp, O; Stenyakin, O; Stevenson, S; Stoica, S; Stone, S; Storaci, B; Stracka, S; Straticiuc, M; Straumann, U; Sun, L; Sutcliffe, W; Swientek, K; Swientek, S; Syropoulos, V; Szczekowski, M; Szumlak, T; T'Jampens, S; Tayduganov, A; Tekampe, T; Teklishyn, M; Tellarini, G; Teubert, F; Thomas, C; Thomas, E; van Tilburg, J; Tisserand, V; Tobin, M; Todd, J; Tolk, S; Tomassetti, L; Tonelli, D; Topp-Joergensen, S; Torr, N; Tournefier, E; Tourneur, S; Trabelsi, K; Tran, M T; Tresch, M; Trisovic, A; Tsaregorodtsev, A; Tsopelas, P; Tuning, N; Ukleja, A; Ustyuzhanin, A; Uwer, U; Vacca, C; Vagnoni, V; Valenti, G; Vallier, A; Vazquez Gomez, R; Vazquez Regueiro, P; Vázquez Sierra, C; Vecchi, S; Velthuis, J J; Veltri, M; Veneziano, G; Vesterinen, M; Viaud, B; Vieira, D; Vieites Diaz, M; Vilasis-Cardona, X; Volkov, V; Vollhardt, A; Volyanskyy, D; Voong, D; Vorobyev, A; Vorobyev, V; Voß, C; de Vries, J A; Waldi, R; Wallace, C; Wallace, R; Walsh, J; Wandernoth, S; Wang, J; Ward, D R; Watson, N K; Websdale, D; Weiden, A; Whitehead, M; Wilkinson, G; Wilkinson, M; Williams, M; Williams, M P; Williams, M; Williams, T; Wilson, F F; Wimberley, J; Wishahi, J; Wislicki, W; Witek, M; Wormser, G; Wotton, S A; Wright, S; Wyllie, K; Xie, Y; Xu, Z; Yang, Z; Yu, J; Yuan, X; Yushchenko, O; Zangoli, M; Zavertyaev, M; Zhang, L; Zhang, Y; Zhelezov, A; Zhokhov, A; Zhong, L; Zucchelli, S

2015-12-11

Using a pp collision data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3.0  fb^{-1}, collected by the LHCb detector, we present the first search for the strangeness-changing weak decay Ξ_{b}^{-}→Λ_{b}^{0}π^{-}. No b hadron decay of this type has been seen before. A signal for this decay, corresponding to a significance of 3.2 standard deviations, is reported. The relative rate is measured to be f_{Ξ_{b}^{-}}/f_{Λ_{b}^{0}}B(Ξ_{b}^{-}→Λ_{b}^{0}π^{-})=(5.7±1.8_{-0.9}^{+0.8})×10^{-4},where f_{Ξ_{b}^{-}} and f_{Λ_{b}^{0}} are the b→Ξ_{b}^{-} and b→Λ_{b}^{0} fragmentation fractions, and B(Ξ_{b}^{-}→Λ_{b}^{0}π^{-}) is the branching fraction. Assuming f_{Ξ_{b}^{-}}/f_{Λ_{b}^{0}} is bounded between 0.1 and 0.3, the branching fraction B(Ξ_{b}^{-}→Λ_{b}^{0}π^{-}) would lie in the range from (0.57±0.21)% to (0.19±0.07)%.

Effects of 2,2',4,4'-tetrabromodiphenyl ether on neurobehavior and memory change and bcl-2, c-fos, grin1b and lingo1b gene expression in male zebrafish (Danio rerio).

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Shukai; Liu, Caixia; Huang, Yanhong; Bao, Mian; Huang, Yuanni; Wu, Kusheng

2017-10-15

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are persistent organic pollutants in various environmental matrices and organisms and pose a threat to neural systems of organisms. However, though quite a few studies have explored the effect of PBDEs on neural behaviors such as learning and memory abilities in animals, their mechanisms are less known. We used the zebrafish model to evaluate neurotoxicity of PBDEs and observe changes in behavior and related gene expression. In behavioral testing, 50 zebrafish were divided into five groups treated with different concentrations of BDE-47. T-maze exploration was used for learning and memory testing, which was recorded by camera every 7days. After 21days, all fish were killed, and the gene expression of c-fos, bcl-2, lingo1b and grin1b in brain tissue was analyzed by RT-qPCR. The behavioral changes (latency to leave the start zone, reach the reward zone, and stay in the reward zone; accuracy in choosing the right maze arm, accumulation of freezing bouts, etc.) were related to BDE-47 concentration and had a time-effect relation with increasing exposure days, especially with 500μg/L BDE-47. BDE-47 elevated brain bcl-2, grin1b and lingo1b expression. The expression of c-fos showed an increase with 50 and 100μg/L BDE-47 exposure. The PBDE BDE-47 had a negative impact on the neurobehaviors of zebrafish and affected the expression of c-fos, bcl-2, lingo1b and grin1b in zebrafish brain tissue. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evidence for the strangeness-changing weak decay $\\Xi_b^-\\to\\Lambda_b^0π^-$

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Aaij, R.; Raven, G.

2015-01-01

Using a pp collision data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3.0 fb-1, collected by the LHCb detector, we present the first search for the strangeness-changing weak decay Ξb-→Λb0π-. No b hadron decay of this type has been seen before. A signal for this decay, corresponding to a

Towards developing IPCC methane ‘emission factors’ for peatlands (organic soils

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Couwenberg

2012-03-01

Full Text Available (1 Huge reductions of carbon dioxide (CO2 and nitrous oxide (N2O effluxes can be attained by rewetting drained peatlands, but this will increase methane (CH4 effluxes.(2 The scientific data base for methane effluxes from peatlands is much larger than that for CO2 or N2O. Once anoxic conditions are provided, the availability of fresh plant material is the major factor in methane production. Old (recalcitrant peat plays only a subordinate role in gas efflux.(3 The annual mean water level is a surprisingly good indicator for methane effluxes, but at high water levels the cover of aerenchymous shunts (gas conductive plant tissue becomes a better proxy. Ideally, both water level and cover of aerenchymous shunts should be assessed to arrive at robust estimates of methane effluxes.(4 The available data provide sufficient guidance for arriving at moderately accurate (Tier 1 estimates consistent with IPCC methodologies. For more accurate estimation (higher tier approaches, vegetation provides a promising basis for development of more detailed efflux factors. Vegetation is a good proxy for mean water levels and can provide - with extra attention to aerenchymous shunts - a robust proxy for accurate and spatially explicit estimates of methane effluxes over large areas.

The Co-evolution of Climate Models and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Somerville, R. C.

2010-12-01

As recently as the 1950s, global climate models, or GCMs, did not exist, and the notion that man-made carbon dioxide might lead to significant climate change was not regarded as a serious possibility by most experts. Today, of course, the prospect or threat of exactly this type of climate change dominates the science and ranks among the most pressing issues confronting all mankind. Indeed, the prevailing scientific view throughout the first half of the twentieth century was that adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere would have only a negligible effect on climate. The science of climate change caused by atmospheric carbon dioxide changes has thus undergone a genuine revolution. An extraordinarily rapid development of global climate models has also characterized this period, especially in the three decades since about 1980. In these three decades, the number of GCMs has greatly increased, and their physical and computational aspects have both markedly improved. Modeling progress has been enabled by many scientific advances, of course, but especially by a massive increase in available computer power, with supercomputer speeds increasing by roughly a factor of a million in the three decades from about 1980 to 2010. This technological advance has permitted a rapid increase in the physical comprehensiveness of GCMs as well as in spatial computational resolution. In short, GCMs have dramatically evolved over time, in exactly the same recent period as popular interest and scientific concern about anthropogenic climate change have markedly increased. In parallel, a unique international organization, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, has also recently come into being and also evolved rapidly. Today, the IPCC has become widely respected and globally influential. The IPCC was founded in 1988, and its history is thus even shorter than that of GCMs. Yet, its stature today is such that a series of IPCC reports assessing climate change science has already

IPCC workshop on socio-economic scenarios. Workshop report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Edenhofer, O.; Pichs-Madruga, R.; Sokona, Y. (and others)

2012-07-01

The goal of the IPCC Workshop on Socio-Economic Scenarios (WoSES) was to facilitate the development of socioeconomic narratives and pathways by the integrated assessment modelling, impacts, and adaptation communities. Describing these pathways and narratives is a core step to analyzing the interdependent issues of adaptation and mitigation in an integrated manner. The Workshop participants agreed that structured and consistent assessments of possible future impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation would benefit from using shared qualitative narrative and quantitative descriptions of potential socioeconomic and ecosystem reference conditions that underlie challenges to mitigation and adaptation. These descriptions should be flexible enough to provide a framework for comparison within which regional or local studies of adaptation and vulnerability could build their own narratives. The defining socioeconomic conditions of these scenarios are designated Shared Socioeconomic reference Pathways (SSPs). The SSPs define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale and have two elements: a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate change. This assumption defines the SSPs as a baseline independent of climate change projections. The set of SSPs was chosen to characterize the range of uncertainty in mitigation efforts required to achieve particular radiative forcing pathways, in adaptation efforts that could be undertaken to prepare for and respond to the climate change associated with those pathways, and in residual impacts. This will allow assessment of scenarios along two axes: socioeconomic challenges to mitigation, and socioeconomic challenges to adaptation. This conceptualization of SSPs allows them to be combined with different degrees of anthropogenic interference with the climate system (measured in terms of

The climatic change induced by human activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Balairon Ruiz, L.

2004-01-01

The climate of the Earth is a changing climate. Along their history many natural climate changes have existed in all time scales. At the present time we use the term climate changes have existed in all time scales. At the present time we use the term climate change in a restricted way, understanding that we have referring to a singular change that has their origin in the modification of the natural composition of the atmosphere. The increase of greenhouse gases from the second half the XVIII century, is due to the human activities of fossil fuels burning to obtain energy and to industrial and agricultural activities needing for the development of a world which population has been duplicated between 1960 and 2000, until overcoming the 6,000 million inhabitants. In particular, the concentrations of carbon dioxide-CO 2 have increased in a 34%. The more recent emission scenarios proposed by the IPCC (SRES, 2000) are based on hypothesis about the population evolution, the energy consumption and the word patterns of development, which are grouped in four families dominated as A1, A2, B1 and B2. The answer for these scenarios from a range of climate models results in an increase of the world average surface atmospheric temperature between 1,4 degree centigrade and 5,8 degree centigrade and a corresponding sea level rise understood between 9 cm and 88 cm. The changes in the precipitation patterns show us that could be above to the current one in high and media latitudes and below in subtropical latitudes, with exceptions highly depending of the model used. (Author)

Molecular dynamics simulations of protein-tyrosine phosphatase 1B. I. Ligand-induced changes in the protein motions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Peters, Günther H. J.; Frimurer, T.M.; Andersen, J.N.

1999-01-01

Activity of enzymes, such as protein tyrosine phosphatases (PTPs), is often associated with structural changes in the enzyme, resulting in selective and stereospecific reactions with the substrate. To investigate the effect of a substrate on the motions occurring in PTPs, we have performed...... molecular dynamics simulations of PTP1B and PTP1B complexed with a high-affinity peptide DADEpYL, where pY stands for phosphorylated tyrosine. The peptide sequence is derived from the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR(988-993)). Simulations were performed in water for 1 ns, and the concerted motions...... in the protein were analyzed using the essential dynamics technique. Our results indicate that the predominately internal motions in PTP1B occur in a subspace of only a few degrees of freedom. Upon substrate binding, the flexibility of the protein is reduced by similar to 10%. The largest effect is found...

The climate is changing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alfsen, Knut H.

2001-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has finalized its Third Assessment Report. Among its conclusions is that we must expect continued changes in our climate, despite our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Planning for and adapting to climate change are therefore necessary. As a starting point, CICERO has written this short note on expected impacts in Norway. The main conclusions are that (1) Adaptation to climate change is necessary (2) Substantial impacts are expected for several important sectors in Norway (3) The local and central authorities should now consider and start planning for adaptation measures. (4) There is still a need for more knowledge about potential impacts of climate change in Norway. (author)

Aflatoxin B1 contamination in maize in Europe increases due to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Battilani, P.; Toscano, P.; van der Fels-Klerx, H. J.; Moretti, A.; Camardo Leggieri, M.; Brera, C.; Rortais, A.; Goumperis, T.; Robinson, T.

2016-04-01

Climate change has been reported as a driver for emerging food and feed safety issues worldwide and its expected impact on the presence of mycotoxins in food and feed is of great concern. Aflatoxins have the highest acute and chronic toxicity of all mycotoxins; hence, the maximal concentration in agricultural food and feed products and their commodities is regulated worldwide. The possible change in patterns of aflatoxin occurrence in crops due to climate change is a matter of concern that may require anticipatory actions. The aim of this study was to predict aflatoxin contamination in maize and wheat crops, within the next 100 years, under a +2 °C and +5 °C climate change scenario, applying a modelling approach. Europe was virtually covered by a net, 50 × 50 km grids, identifying 2254 meshes with a central point each. Climate data were generated for each point, linked to predictive models and predictions were run consequently. Aflatoxin B1 is predicted to become a food safety issue in maize in Europe, especially in the +2 °C scenario, the most probable scenario of climate change expected for the next years. These results represent a supporting tool to reinforce aflatoxin management and to prevent human and animal exposure.

Evidence for the strangeness-changing weak decay $\\Xi_b^-\\to\\Lambda_b^0\\pi^-$

CERN Document Server

Aaij, Roel; Adeva, Bernardo; Adinolfi, Marco; Affolder, Anthony; Ajaltouni, Ziad; Akar, Simon; Albrecht, Johannes; Alessio, Federico; Alexander, Michael; Ali, Suvayu; Alkhazov, Georgy; Alvarez Cartelle, Paula; Alves Jr, Antonio Augusto; Amato, Sandra; Amerio, Silvia; Amhis, Yasmine; An, Liupan; Anderlini, Lucio; Anderson, Jonathan; Andreassi, Guido; Andreotti, Mirco; Andrews, Jason; Appleby, Robert; Aquines Gutierrez, Osvaldo; Archilli, Flavio; d'Argent, Philippe; Artamonov, Alexander; Artuso, Marina; Aslanides, Elie; Auriemma, Giulio; Baalouch, Marouen; Bachmann, Sebastian; Back, John; Badalov, Alexey; Baesso, Clarissa; Baldini, Wander; Barlow, Roger; Barschel, Colin; Barsuk, Sergey; Barter, William; Batozskaya, Varvara; Battista, Vincenzo; Bay, Aurelio; Beaucourt, Leo; Beddow, John; Bedeschi, Franco; Bediaga, Ignacio; Bel, Lennaert; Bellee, Violaine; Belloli, Nicoletta; Belyaev, Ivan; Ben-Haim, Eli; Bencivenni, Giovanni; Benson, Sean; Benton, Jack; Berezhnoy, Alexander; Bernet, Roland; Bertolin, Alessandro; Bettler, Marc-Olivier; van Beuzekom, Martinus; Bien, Alexander; Bifani, Simone; Billoir, Pierre; Bird, Thomas; Birnkraut, Alex; Bizzeti, Andrea; Blake, Thomas; Blanc, Frédéric; Blouw, Johan; Blusk, Steven; Bocci, Valerio; Bondar, Alexander; Bondar, Nikolay; Bonivento, Walter; Borghi, Silvia; Borisyak, Maxim; Borsato, Martino; Bowcock, Themistocles; Bowen, Espen Eie; Bozzi, Concezio; Braun, Svende; Britsch, Markward; Britton, Thomas; Brodzicka, Jolanta; Brook, Nicholas; Buchanan, Emma; Burr, Christopher; Bursche, Albert; Buytaert, Jan; Cadeddu, Sandro; Calabrese, Roberto; Calvi, Marta; Calvo Gomez, Miriam; Campana, Pierluigi; Campora Perez, Daniel; Capriotti, Lorenzo; Carbone, Angelo; Carboni, Giovanni; Cardinale, Roberta; Cardini, Alessandro; Carniti, Paolo; Carson, Laurence; Carvalho Akiba, Kazuyoshi; Casse, Gianluigi; Cassina, Lorenzo; Castillo Garcia, Lucia; Cattaneo, Marco; Cauet, Christophe; Cavallero, Giovanni; Cenci, Riccardo; Charles, Matthew; Charpentier, Philippe; Chefdeville, Maximilien; Chen, Shanzhen; Cheung, Shu-Faye; Chiapolini, Nicola; Chrzaszcz, Marcin; Cid Vidal, Xabier; Ciezarek, Gregory; Clarke, Peter; Clemencic, Marco; Cliff, Harry; Closier, Joel; Coco, Victor; Cogan, Julien; Cogneras, Eric; Cogoni, Violetta; Cojocariu, Lucian; Collazuol, Gianmaria; Collins, Paula; Comerma-Montells, Albert; Contu, Andrea; Cook, Andrew; Coombes, Matthew; Coquereau, Samuel; Corti, Gloria; Corvo, Marco; Couturier, Benjamin; Cowan, Greig; Craik, Daniel Charles; Crocombe, Andrew; Cruz Torres, Melissa Maria; Cunliffe, Samuel; Currie, Robert; D'Ambrosio, Carmelo; Dall'Occo, Elena; Dalseno, Jeremy; David, Pieter; Davis, Adam; De Aguiar Francisco, Oscar; De Bruyn, Kristof; De Capua, Stefano; De Cian, Michel; De Miranda, Jussara; De Paula, Leandro; De Simone, Patrizia; Dean, Cameron Thomas; Decamp, Daniel; Deckenhoff, Mirko; Del Buono, Luigi; Déléage, Nicolas; Demmer, Moritz; Derkach, Denis; Deschamps, Olivier; Dettori, Francesco; Dey, Biplab; Di Canto, Angelo; Di Ruscio, Francesco; Dijkstra, Hans; Donleavy, Stephanie; Dordei, Francesca; Dorigo, Mirco; Dosil Suárez, Alvaro; Dossett, David; Dovbnya, Anatoliy; Dreimanis, Karlis; Dufour, Laurent; Dujany, Giulio; Durante, Paolo; Dzhelyadin, Rustem; Dziurda, Agnieszka; Dzyuba, Alexey; Easo, Sajan; Egede, Ulrik; Egorychev, Victor; Eidelman, Semen; Eisenhardt, Stephan; Eitschberger, Ulrich; Ekelhof, Robert; Eklund, Lars; El Rifai, Ibrahim; Elsasser, Christian; Ely, Scott; Esen, Sevda; Evans, Hannah Mary; Evans, Timothy; Falabella, Antonio; Färber, Christian; Farley, Nathanael; Farry, Stephen; Fay, Robert; Ferguson, Dianne; Fernandez Albor, Victor; Ferrari, Fabio; Ferreira Rodrigues, Fernando; Ferro-Luzzi, Massimiliano; Filippov, Sergey; Fiore, Marco; Fiorini, Massimiliano; Firlej, Miroslaw; Fitzpatrick, Conor; Fiutowski, Tomasz; Fohl, Klaus; Fol, Philip; Fontana, Marianna; Fontanelli, Flavio; Forshaw, Dean Charles; Forty, Roger; Frank, Markus; Frei, Christoph; Frosini, Maddalena; Fu, Jinlin; Furfaro, Emiliano; Gallas Torreira, Abraham; Galli, Domenico; Gallorini, Stefano; Gambetta, Silvia; Gandelman, Miriam; Gandini, Paolo; Gao, Yuanning; García Pardiñas, Julián; Garra Tico, Jordi; Garrido, Lluis; Gascon, David; Gaspar, Clara; Gauld, Rhorry; Gavardi, Laura; Gazzoni, Giulio; Gerick, David; Gersabeck, Evelina; Gersabeck, Marco; Gershon, Timothy; Ghez, Philippe; Gianì, Sebastiana; Gibson, Valerie; Girard, Olivier Göran; Giubega, Lavinia-Helena; Gligorov, V.V.; Göbel, Carla; Golubkov, Dmitry; Golutvin, Andrey; Gomes, Alvaro; Gotti, Claudio; Grabalosa Gándara, Marc; Graciani Diaz, Ricardo; Granado Cardoso, Luis Alberto; Graugés, Eugeni; Graverini, Elena; Graziani, Giacomo; Grecu, Alexandru; Greening, Edward; Gregson, Sam; Griffith, Peter; Grillo, Lucia; Grünberg, Oliver; Gui, Bin; Gushchin, Evgeny; Guz, Yury; Gys, Thierry; Hadavizadeh, Thomas; Hadjivasiliou, Christos; Haefeli, Guido; Haen, Christophe; Haines, Susan; Hall, Samuel; Hamilton, Brian; Han, Xiaoxue; Hansmann-Menzemer, Stephanie; Harnew, Neville; Harnew, Samuel; Harrison, Jonathan; He, Jibo; Head, Timothy; Heijne, Veerle; Hennessy, Karol; Henrard, Pierre; Henry, Louis; van Herwijnen, Eric; Heß, Miriam; Hicheur, Adlène; Hill, Donal; Hoballah, Mostafa; Hombach, Christoph; Hulsbergen, Wouter; Humair, Thibaud; Hussain, Nazim; Hutchcroft, David; Hynds, Daniel; Idzik, Marek; Ilten, Philip; Jacobsson, Richard; Jaeger, Andreas; Jalocha, Pawel; Jans, Eddy; Jawahery, Abolhassan; John, Malcolm; Johnson, Daniel; Jones, Christopher; Joram, Christian; Jost, Beat; Jurik, Nathan; Kandybei, Sergii; Kanso, Walaa; Karacson, Matthias; Karbach, Moritz; Karodia, Sarah; Kecke, Matthieu; Kelsey, Matthew; Kenyon, Ian; Kenzie, Matthew; Ketel, Tjeerd; Khairullin, Egor; Khanji, Basem; Khurewathanakul, Chitsanu; Klaver, Suzanne; Klimaszewski, Konrad; Kochebina, Olga; Kolpin, Michael; Komarov, Ilya; Koopman, Rose; Koppenburg, Patrick; Kozeiha, Mohamad; Kravchuk, Leonid; Kreplin, Katharina; Kreps, Michal; Krocker, Georg; Krokovny, Pavel; Kruse, Florian; Krzemien, Wojciech; Kucewicz, Wojciech; Kucharczyk, Marcin; Kudryavtsev, Vasily; Kuonen, Axel Kevin; Kurek, Krzysztof; Kvaratskheliya, Tengiz; Lacarrere, Daniel; Lafferty, George; Lai, Adriano; Lambert, Dean; Lanfranchi, Gaia; Langenbruch, Christoph; Langhans, Benedikt; Latham, Thomas; Lazzeroni, Cristina; Le Gac, Renaud; van Leerdam, Jeroen; Lees, Jean-Pierre; Lefèvre, Regis; Leflat, Alexander; Lefrançois, Jacques; Lemos Cid, Edgar; Leroy, Olivier; Lesiak, Tadeusz; Leverington, Blake; Li, Yiming; Likhomanenko, Tatiana; Liles, Myfanwy; Lindner, Rolf; Linn, Christian; Lionetto, Federica; Liu, Bo; Liu, Xuesong; Loh, David; Longstaff, Iain; Lopes, Jose; Lucchesi, Donatella; Lucio Martinez, Miriam; Luo, Haofei; Lupato, Anna; Luppi, Eleonora; Lupton, Oliver; Lusiani, Alberto; Machefert, Frederic; Maciuc, Florin; Maev, Oleg; Maguire, Kevin; Malde, Sneha; Malinin, Alexander; Manca, Giulia; Mancinelli, Giampiero; Manning, Peter Michael; Mapelli, Alessandro; Maratas, Jan; Marchand, Jean François; Marconi, Umberto; Marin Benito, Carla; Marino, Pietro; Marks, Jörg; Martellotti, Giuseppe; Martin, Morgan; Martinelli, Maurizio; Martinez Santos, Diego; Martinez Vidal, Fernando; Martins Tostes, Danielle; Massafferri, André; Matev, Rosen; Mathad, Abhijit; Mathe, Zoltan; Matteuzzi, Clara; Mauri, Andrea; Maurin, Brice; Mazurov, Alexander; McCann, Michael; McCarthy, James; McNab, Andrew; McNulty, Ronan; Meadows, Brian; Meier, Frank; Meissner, Marco; Melnychuk, Dmytro; Merk, Marcel; Michielin, Emanuele; Milanes, Diego Alejandro; Minard, Marie-Noelle; Mitzel, Dominik Stefan; Molina Rodriguez, Josue; Monroy, Ignacio Alberto; Monteil, Stephane; Morandin, Mauro; Morawski, Piotr; Mordà, Alessandro; Morello, Michael Joseph; Moron, Jakub; Morris, Adam Benjamin; Mountain, Raymond; Muheim, Franz; Müller, Dominik; Müller, Janine; Müller, Katharina; Müller, Vanessa; Mussini, Manuel; Muster, Bastien; Naik, Paras; Nakada, Tatsuya; Nandakumar, Raja; Nandi, Anita; Nasteva, Irina; Needham, Matthew; Neri, Nicola; Neubert, Sebastian; Neufeld, Niko; Neuner, Max; Nguyen, Anh Duc; Nguyen, Thi-Dung; Nguyen-Mau, Chung; Niess, Valentin; Niet, Ramon; Nikitin, Nikolay; Nikodem, Thomas; Novoselov, Alexey; O'Hanlon, Daniel Patrick; Oblakowska-Mucha, Agnieszka; Obraztsov, Vladimir; Ogilvy, Stephen; Okhrimenko, Oleksandr; Oldeman, Rudolf; Onderwater, Gerco; Osorio Rodrigues, Bruno; Otalora Goicochea, Juan Martin; Otto, Adam; Owen, Patrick; Oyanguren, Maria Aranzazu; Palano, Antimo; Palombo, Fernando; Palutan, Matteo; Panman, Jacob; Papanestis, Antonios; Pappagallo, Marco; Pappalardo, Luciano; Pappenheimer, Cheryl; Parker, William; Parkes, Christopher; Passaleva, Giovanni; Patel, Girish; Patel, Mitesh; Patrignani, Claudia; Pearce, Alex; Pellegrino, Antonio; Penso, Gianni; Pepe Altarelli, Monica; Perazzini, Stefano; Perret, Pascal; Pescatore, Luca; Petridis, Konstantinos; Petrolini, Alessandro; Petruzzo, Marco; Picatoste Olloqui, Eduardo; Pietrzyk, Boleslaw; Pilař, Tomas; Pinci, Davide; Pistone, Alessandro; Piucci, Alessio; Playfer, Stephen; Plo Casasus, Maximo; Poikela, Tuomas; Polci, Francesco; Poluektov, Anton; Polyakov, Ivan; Polycarpo, Erica; Popov, Alexander; Popov, Dmitry; Popovici, Bogdan; Potterat, Cédric; Price, Eugenia; Price, Joseph David; Prisciandaro, Jessica; Pritchard, Adrian; Prouve, Claire; Pugatch, Valery; Puig Navarro, Albert; Punzi, Giovanni; Qian, Wenbin; Quagliani, Renato; Rachwal, Bartolomiej; Rademacker, Jonas; Rama, Matteo; Ramos Pernas, Miguel; Rangel, Murilo; Raniuk, Iurii; Rauschmayr, Nathalie; Raven, Gerhard; Redi, Federico; Reichert, Stefanie; Reid, Matthew; dos Reis, Alberto; Ricciardi, Stefania; Richards, Sophie; Rihl, Mariana; Rinnert, Kurt; Rives Molina, Vincente; Robbe, Patrick; Rodrigues, Ana Barbara; Rodrigues, Eduardo; Rodriguez Lopez, Jairo Alexis; Rodriguez Perez, Pablo; Roiser, Stefan; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Romero Vidal, Antonio; Ronayne, John William; Rotondo, Marcello; Ruf, Thomas; Ruiz Valls, Pablo; Saborido Silva, Juan Jose; Sagidova, Naylya; Sail, Paul; Saitta, Biagio; Salustino Guimaraes, Valdir; Sanchez Mayordomo, Carlos; Sanmartin Sedes, Brais; Santacesaria, Roberta; Santamarina Rios, Cibran; Santimaria, Marco; Santovetti, Emanuele; Sarti, Alessio; Satriano, Celestina; Satta, Alessia; Saunders, Daniel Martin; Savrina, Darya; Schiller, Manuel; Schindler, Heinrich; Schlupp, Maximilian; Schmelling, Michael; Schmelzer, Timon; Schmidt, Burkhard; Schneider, Olivier; Schopper, Andreas; Schubiger, Maxime; Schune, Marie Helene; Schwemmer, Rainer; Sciascia, Barbara; Sciubba, Adalberto; Semennikov, Alexander; Serra, Nicola; Serrano, Justine; Sestini, Lorenzo; Seyfert, Paul; Shapkin, Mikhail; Shapoval, Illya; Shcheglov, Yury; Shears, Tara; Shekhtman, Lev; Shevchenko, Vladimir; Shires, Alexander; Siddi, Benedetto Gianluca; Silva Coutinho, Rafael; Silva de Oliveira, Luiz Gustavo; Simi, Gabriele; Sirendi, Marek; Skidmore, Nicola; Skwarnicki, Tomasz; Smith, Edmund; Smith, Eluned; Smith, Iwan Thomas; Smith, Jackson; Smith, Mark; Snoek, Hella; Sokoloff, Michael; Soler, Paul; Soomro, Fatima; Souza, Daniel; Souza De Paula, Bruno; Spaan, Bernhard; Spradlin, Patrick; Sridharan, Srikanth; Stagni, Federico; Stahl, Marian; Stahl, Sascha; Stefkova, Slavorima; Steinkamp, Olaf; Stenyakin, Oleg; Stevenson, Scott; Stoica, Sabin; Stone, Sheldon; Storaci, Barbara; Stracka, Simone; Straticiuc, Mihai; Straumann, Ulrich; Sun, Liang; Sutcliffe, William; Swientek, Krzysztof; Swientek, Stefan; Syropoulos, Vasileios; Szczekowski, Marek; Szumlak, Tomasz; T'Jampens, Stephane; Tayduganov, Andrey; Tekampe, Tobias; Teklishyn, Maksym; Tellarini, Giulia; Teubert, Frederic; Thomas, Christopher; Thomas, Eric; van Tilburg, Jeroen; Tisserand, Vincent; Tobin, Mark; Todd, Jacob; Tolk, Siim; Tomassetti, Luca; Tonelli, Diego; Topp-Joergensen, Stig; Torr, Nicholas; Tournefier, Edwige; Tourneur, Stephane; Trabelsi, Karim; Tran, Minh Tâm; Tresch, Marco; Trisovic, Ana; Tsaregorodtsev, Andrei; Tsopelas, Panagiotis; Tuning, Niels; Ukleja, Artur; Ustyuzhanin, Andrey; Uwer, Ulrich; Vacca, Claudia; Vagnoni, Vincenzo; Valenti, Giovanni; Vallier, Alexis; Vazquez Gomez, Ricardo; Vazquez Regueiro, Pablo; Vázquez Sierra, Carlos; Vecchi, Stefania; Velthuis, Jaap; Veltri, Michele; Veneziano, Giovanni; Vesterinen, Mika; Viaud, Benoit; Vieira, Daniel; Vieites Diaz, Maria; Vilasis-Cardona, Xavier; Volkov, Vladimir; Vollhardt, Achim; Volyanskyy, Dmytro; Voong, David; Vorobyev, Alexey; Vorobyev, Vitaly; Voß, Christian; de Vries, Jacco; Waldi, Roland; Wallace, Charlotte; Wallace, Ronan; Walsh, John; Wandernoth, Sebastian; Wang, Jianchun; Ward, David; Watson, Nigel; Websdale, David; Weiden, Andreas; Whitehead, Mark; Wilkinson, Guy; Wilkinson, Michael; Williams, Mark Richard James; Williams, Matthew; Williams, Mike; Williams, Timothy; Wilson, Fergus; Wimberley, Jack; Wishahi, Julian; Wislicki, Wojciech; Witek, Mariusz; Wormser, Guy; Wotton, Stephen; Wright, Simon; Wyllie, Kenneth; Xie, Yuehong; Xu, Zhirui; Yang, Zhenwei; Yu, Jiesheng; Yuan, Xuhao; Yushchenko, Oleg; Zangoli, Maria; Zavertyaev, Mikhail; Zhang, Liming; Zhang, Yanxi; Zhelezov, Alexey; Zhokhov, Anatoly; Zhong, Liang; Zucchelli, Stefano

2015-12-11

Using a $pp$ collision data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3.0~fb$^{-1}$, collected by the LHCb detector, we present the first search for the strangeness-changing weak decay $\\Xi_b^-\\to\\Lambda_b^0\\pi^-$. No $b$ hadron decay of this type has been seen before. A signal for this decay, corresponding to a significance of 3.2 standard deviations, is reported. The relative rate is measured to be ${{f_{\\Xi_b^-}}\\over{f_{\\Lambda_b^0}}}{\\cal{B}}(\\Xi_b^-\\to\\Lambda_b^0\\pi^-) = (5.7\\pm1.8^{+0.8}_{-0.9})\\times10^{-4}$, where $f_{\\Xi_b^-}$ and $f_{\\Lambda_b^0}$ are the $b\\to\\Xi_b^-$ and $b\\to\\Lambda_b^0$ fragmentation fractions, and ${\\cal{B}}(\\Xi_b^-\\to\\Lambda_b^0\\pi^-)$ is the branching fraction. Assuming $f_{\\Xi_b^-}/f_{\\Lambda_b^0}$ is bounded between 0.1 and 0.3, the branching fraction ${\\cal{B}}(\\Xi_b^-\\to\\Lambda_b^0\\pi^-)$ would lie in the range from $(0.57\\pm0.21)\\%$ to $(0.19\\pm0.07)\\%$.

Tropical Andean ecosystems and the need to keep warming limits below a +1.5°C threshold

Science.gov (United States)

Ruiz-Carrascal, D.; Herzog, S. K.; Guitierrez Lagoueyte, M. E.; Gonzalez-Duque, D.; Cuevas-Moreno, J.; del Valle, J. I.; Andreu-Hayles, L.; Herrera, D. A.; Martínez, R.

2017-12-01

Long-term climate change and rapid land-use change are synergistically threatening the integrity and functioning of tropical Andean ecosystems. The main goal of our research was to integrate climate change projections, biodiversity data and anthropogenically driven ecosystem disruption assessments to quantify the vulnerability of Andean ecosystems and species to global change at a local scale. We merged discernible trends in local quality-controlled weather station data with reanalysis data, as well as with historical and prospective simulation outputs of five well-known GCMs to assess a long-term context for the analysis of climate change exposure (temperature severity intervals). Individual, medium-term, multi-member GCM simulations included: altitude-corrected 2046-2065 (IPCC-AR4) climate change scenarios for the A1B emission scenario; and spatially-downscaled 2040-2069 (IPCC-AR5) projections for the RCP4.5. Previous studies reported mean annual temperature anomaly intervals that resulted in exceedingly high thresholds: the lowest severity interval ( +2.71°C). The least severe interval extended up to the threshold widely recognized as `dangerous' climate change, thereby leading to an underestimation of the true vulnerability of Andean species. Our analyses suggest that temperature anomalies for the full extent of the tropical Andes will likely range from low ( +2.61°C), exceeding the threshold of 'natural' climate variability (+1.78°C). Our results suggest that most species that were used as proxies of ecosystem vulnerabilities will likely experience overall low-to-medium-to-high temperature increases. Since many of them have potentially high sensitivity to such long-term changes, Andean species will likely experience greatly increases in vulnerability. The already-disrupted Andean ecosystems will suffer a further climatic stress, which will worsen the well-known detrimental synergies between climate and land-use changes. There is an imperative need to

Climate change and future land use in the United States: an economic approach

Science.gov (United States)

David Haim; Ralph J. Alig; Andrew J. Plantinga; Brent Sohngen

2011-01-01

An econometric land-use model is used to project regional and national land-use changes in the United States under two IPCC emissions scenarios. The key driver of land-use change in the model is county-level measures of net returns to five major land uses. The net returns are modified for the IPCC scenarios according to assumed trends in population and income and...

Predictions of potential geographical distribution and quality of Schisandra sphenanthera under climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanlong Guo

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Climate change will significantly affect plant distribution as well as the quality of medicinal plants. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats of plants through species distribution models (SDMs, few of them have incorporated the change of effective content of medicinal plants. Schisandra sphenanthera Rehd. et Wils. is an endangered traditional Chinese medical plant which is mainly located in the Qinling Mountains. Combining fuzzy theory and a maximum entropy model, we obtained current spatial distribution of quality assessment for S. spenanthera. Moreover, the future quality and distribution of S. spenanthera were also projected for the periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under three different climate change scenarios (SRES-A1B, SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The results showed that the moderately suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera under all climate change scenarios remained relatively stable in the study area. The highly suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera would gradually decrease in the future and a higher decline rate of the highly suitable habitat area would occur under climate change scenarios SRES-A1B and SRES-A2. The result suggested that in the study area, there would be no more highly suitable habitat areas for S. sphenanthera when the annual mean temperature exceeds 20 °C or its annual precipitation exceeds 1,200 mm. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of S. sphenanthera and can be taken as a reference for habitat suitability assessment research for other medicinal plants.

LytB1 and LytB2 of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Are Not Genetically Redundant.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amanda Claire Brown

Full Text Available Mycobacterium tuberculosis synthesises isoprenoid precursors via the MEP/DOXP pathway and at least five enzymes in the pathway (Dxs1, Dxr/IspC, IspD, IspF, and GcpE/IspG are required for growth in vitro. We investigated the role of LytB (IspH in M. tuberculosis; M. tuberculosis is unusual in that it has two homologs-LytB1 and LytB2. We were unable to delete the lytB2 gene unless we provided an additional copy elsewhere, demonstrating that this is the essential homolog. We expressed lytB1 from the lytB2 promoter and confirmed that this could not complement for loss of function of lytB2, despite LytB1 possessing all the previously described conserved critical residues. Interestingly the sole LytB homolog of Mycobacterium smegmatis was able to compensate for loss of LytB2 in M. tuberculosis. We tested translational fusions of LytB1 and LytB2 for functionality in M. tuberculosis, but only a fusion with 90% N-terminal LytB2 and 10% C-terminal LytB1 was functional. In order to identify the key difference between the two proteins, site directed mutagenesis was used to change LytB2 residues into their counterparts in LytB1. None of these amino acid substitutions was essential for function and all lytB2 mutant alleles were functional. In contrast, mutation of the key residues for [Fe4S4] cluster formation, as well as a catalytic residue in LytB1 did not result in functional complementation. Thus, although LytB1 and LytB2 are not genetically redundant, this is not dependent on small amino acid changes, but is likely to be a result of major overall structural differences.

Report on a survey in fiscal 1999. Survey on movements in technologies related to climate change; 1999 nendo kiko hendo ni kansuru gijutsu doko chosa hokokusho

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2000-03-01

Working group 3 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is now conducting technological and socio-economical assessments of climate change mitigation measures. The objectives of this research are, in conjunction with the IPCC activities, to perform investigation on the draft of the Third Assessment Report and the related literatures, and survey and study movements in technologies for climate change mitigation measures by performing investigations and researches by using models as required. Chapter 1 generalizes the activities of IPCC since 1988, and describes the preparation schedule for the third assessment report being worked on, as well as the summary movements thereof and the features of the third assessment report. Chapter 2 states the history of the activities. Chapter 3 describes that the third assessment report (draft) being prepared by the Working Group 3 is composed as a whole of the options of implementation, the theoretical background of the implementation, the international institutions, and the evaluation on the implementation. It generalizes the first order draft (FOD). Chapter 4 states the results of investigations on the points of issue which were regarded as the problems in the process of preparing the FOD. Chapter 5 describes the investigations of the FOD, making various important keywords as the axis of the investigations. (NEDO)

Identification of YB-1 as a regulator of PTP1B expression: implications for regulation of insulin and cytokine signaling

Science.gov (United States)

Fukada, Toshiyuki; Tonks, Nicholas K.

2003-01-01

Changes in expression of PTP1B, the prototypic protein tyrosine phosphatase, have been associated with various human diseases; however, the mechanisms by which PTP1B expression is regulated have not been defined. We have identified an enhancer sequence within the PTP1B promoter which serves as a binding site for the transcription factor Y box-binding protein-1 (YB-1). Overexpression of YB-1 resulted in increased levels of PTP1B. Furthermore, depletion of YB-1 protein, by expression of a specific antisense construct, led to an ∼70% decrease in expression of PTP1B, but no change in the level of its closest relative, TC-PTP. Expression of antisense YB-1 resulted in increased sensitivity to insulin and enhanced signaling through the cytokine receptor gp130, which was suppressed by re-expression of PTP1B. Finally, we observed a correlation between the expression of PTP1B and that of YB-1 in cancer cell lines and an animal model of type II diabetes. Our data reveal an important role for YB-1 as a regulator of PTP1B expression, and further highlight PTP1B as a critical regulator of insulin- and cytokine-mediated signal transduction. PMID:12554649

iB1350 no.3. Passive double confinement and SA population dose evaluation for the iB1350

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sato, Takashi; Matsumoto, Keiji; Hosomi, Kenji; Iwasaki, Ryuji

2017-01-01

iB1350 stands for an innovative, intelligent and inexpensive BWR 1350. It is the first Generation III.7 reactor after the Fukushima Daiichi accident. The iB1350 uses the Mark W containment and the in-containment filtered venting system (IFVS). The Mark W containment is made of reinforced concrete and has double cylinder FP barriers. There are also IC/iPCCS pools, a fuel pool and a dryer separator (DS) pool on the top slab of the containment. These pools work as water seal for FP leakage through the top slab. Most FP such as CsI are scrubbed in the pools. The containment head is also submerged in the reactor well pool. The pool water works as shielding for radiation from the reactor core during normal operation and water seal for FP scrubbing during a severe accident. The base mat concrete is covered with the S/P and the core catcher that is also submerged with corium flooding water during an accident. Therefore, the Mark W containment has passive double confinement barriers for FP. Moreover, the IFVS works as in-containment filtered venting system that scrubs FP from the wet well (WW) and the dry well (DW). The filtered venting tank is arranged in the outer well (OW) of the Mark W containment. Even noble gases and organic iodine going through the filtered venting system are still confined inside the containment and never released directly to the environment. The IFVS uses the innovative passive containment cooling system (iPCCS) as the pre-stage heat removal system. The iPCCS has a normal open suction line from the WW. Therefore, FP are scrubbed in the S/P at first and then vented into the filtered venting tank. After the DW suction line of the iPCCS is opened all the steam is cooled and condensed in the heat exchanger. Most FP are trapped in the condensate and returned into the WW through the condensate return line of the iPCCS. Therefore, the Mark W containment has excellent FP double confinement barriers and the in-containment filtered venting system that enable

Oenothein B inhibits the expression of PbFKS1 transcript and induces morphological changes in Paracoccidioides brasiliensis.

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, Glaciane D; Ferri, Pedro H; Santos, Suzana C; Bao, Sônia N; Soares, Célia M A; Pereira, Maristela

2007-11-01

The fungus Paracoccidioides brasiliensis is the causative agent of paracoccidioidomycosis (PCM), the most prevalent human systemic mycosis in Latin America. Drug toxicity and the appearance of resistant strains have created the need to search for new therapeutic approaches. Plants with reputed antimicrobial properties represent a rich screening source of potential antifungal compounds. In this work, the growth of P. brasiliensis yeast cells was evaluated in the presence of oenothein B extracted from Eugenia uniflora. The oenothein B dosage that most effectively inhibited the development (74%) of P. brasiliensis yeast cells in vitro was 500 microg/ml. To verify if oenothein B interferes with cell morphology, we observed oenothein B-treated yeast cells by electron microscopy. The micrographs showed characteristic cell changes noted with glucan synthesis inhibition, including squashing, rough surface, cell wall rupture and cell membrane recess. The expression of P. brasiliensis genes was evaluated in order to investigate the action of oenothein B. Here we report that oenothein B inhibits 1,3-beta-glucan synthase (PbFKS1) transcript accumulation. The results indicate that oenothein B interferes with the cell morphology of P. brasiliensis, probably by inhibiting the transcription of 1,3-beta-glucan synthase gene, which is involved in the cell wall synthesis.

Data of evolutionary structure change: 1CG8B-1OUTA [Confc[Archive

Lifescience Database Archive (English)

Full Text Available DHKQI >HHHH -- HHHH> ATOM 1228 C...ryIDChain>1OUTA FWGKISGKADVV ucture>HHHHHGGGHHHH...1CG8B GKHQE-IGVDT >HHHHH- G... >HHHH > ATOM 631 CA ASP A 86 48...ure>G - re> ATOM 329 CA PHE A 43 34.744

Modelling regional climate change and urban planning scenarios and their impacts on the urban environment in two cities with WRF-ACASA

Science.gov (United States)

Falk, M.; Pyles, R. D.; Marras, S.; Spano, D.; Paw U, K. T.

2011-12-01

The number of urban metabolism studies has increased in recent years, due to the important impact that energy, water and carbon exchange over urban areas have on climate change. Urban modeling is therefore crucial in the future design and management of cities. This study presents the ACASA model coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) mesoscale model to simulate urban fluxes at a horizontal resolution of 200 meters for urban areas of roughly 100 km^2. As part of the European Project "BRIDGE", these regional simulations were used in combination with remotely sensed data to provide constraints on the land surface types and the exchange of carbon and energy fluxes from urban centers. Surface-atmosphere exchanges of mass and energy were simulated using the Advanced Canopy Atmosphere Soil Algorithm (ACASA). ACASA is a multi-layer high-order closure model, recently modified to work over natural, agricultural as well as urban environments. In particular, improvements were made to account for the anthropogenic contribution to heat and carbon production. For two cities four climate change and four urban planning scenarios were simulated: The climate change scenarios include a base scenario (Sc0: 2008 Commit in IPCC), a medium emission scenario (Sc1: IPCC A2), a worst case emission scenario (Sce2: IPCC A1F1) and finally a best case emission scenario (Sce3: IPCC B1). The urban planning scenarios include different development scenarios such as smart growth. The two cities are a high latitude city, Helsinki (Finland) and an historic city, Florence (Italy). Helsinki is characterized by recent, rapid urbanization that requires a substantial amount of energy for heating, while Florence is representative of cities in lower latitudes, with substantial cultural heritage and a comparatively constant architectural footprint over time. In general, simulated fluxes matched the point observations well and showed consistent improvement in the energy partitioning over

Effects of IPCC SRES* emissions scenarios on river runoff: a global perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. W. Arnell

2003-01-01

Full Text Available This paper describes an assessment of the implications of future climate change for river runoff across the entire world, using six climate models which have been driven by the SRES emissions scenarios. Streamflow is simulated at a spatial resolution of 0.5°x0.5° using a macro-scale hydrological model, and summed to produce total runoff for almost 1200 catchments. The effects of climate change have been compared with the effects of natural multi-decadal climatic variability, as determined from a long unforced climate simulation using HadCM3. By the 2020s, change in runoff due to climate change in approximately a third of the catchments is less than that due to natural variability but, by the 2080s, this falls to between 10 and 30%. The climate models produce broadly similar changes in runoff, with increases in high latitudes, east Africa and south and east Asia, and decreases in southern and eastern Europe, western Russia, north Africa and the Middle East, central and southern Africa, much of North America, most of South America, and south and east Asia. The pattern of change in runoff is largely determined by simulated change in precipitation, offset by a general increase in evaporation. There is little difference in the pattern of change between different emissions scenarios (for a given model, and only by the 2080s is there evidence that the magnitudes of change in runoff vary, with emissions scenario A1FI producing the greatest change and B1 the smallest. The inter-annual variability in runoff increases in most catchments due to climate change — even though the inter-annual variability in precipitation is not changed — and the frequency of flow below the current 10-year return period minimum annual runoff increases by a factor of three in Europe and southern Africa and of two across North America. Across most of the world climate change does not alter the timing of flows through the year but, in the marginal zone between cool and

Construction of climate change scenarios from transient climate change experiments for the IPCC impacts assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Viner, D.; Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.; Jones, P.D.

1994-01-01

This paper outlines the different methods which may be used for the construction of regional climate change scenarios. The main focus of the paper is the construction of global climate change scenarios from climate change experiments carried out using General Circulation Models (GCMS) An introduction to some GCM climate change experiments highlights the difference between model types and experiments (e.g., equilibrium or transient). The latest generation of climate change experiments has been performed using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMS. These allow transient simulations of climate change to be performed with respect to a given greenhouse gas forcing scenario. There are, however, a number of problems with these simulations which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios for use in climate change impacts assessment. The characteristics of the transient climate change experiments which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios are discussed. Three examples of these problems are: different climate change experiments use different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios; the 'cold-start' problem makes it difficult to link future projections of climate change to a given calendar year; a drift of the climate is noticeable in the control simulations. In order to construct climate change scenarios for impacts assessment a method has therefore to be employed which addresses these problems. At present the climate modeling and climate change impacts communities are somewhat polarized in their approach to spatial scales. Current GCMs model the climate at resolutions larger than 2.5 x 3.75 degree, while the majority of impacts assessment studies are undertaken at scales below 50km (or 0.5 degree). This paper concludes by addressing the problems in bringing together these two different modeling perspectives by presenting a number of regional climate change scenarios. 35 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs

Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

KAUST Repository

Villarino, E; Chust, G; Licandro, P; Butenschö n, M; Ibaibarriaga, L; Larrañ aga, A; Irigoien, Xabier

2015-01-01

Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

KAUST Repository

Villarino, E

2015-07-02

Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

Bioclimatic techniques to quantify mitigation measures for climate change with specific reference to Pretoria

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Conradie, Dirk CU

2017-07-01

Full Text Available , use the IPCC report of 2007 (Meehl et al., 2007). The averages of all 18 models have been included in the software. Three different scenarios B1 (low), A1B (mid) and A2 (high) are available in Meteonorm, but only the A2 instance has been used... to control this oblique radiation and light as well. The design is a function of the latitude, window size and fin depth/ frequency. Living solar protection such as deciduous trees and trellises with deciduous vines are very good shading devices...

Effects of a Changing Climate on Seasonal Variation in Natural Recharge of Unconfined Coastal Aquifers

Science.gov (United States)

Antonellini, Marco; Nella Mollema, Pauline

2013-04-01

Irregular rainfall patterns throughout the year result in the discontinuous natural recharge of coastal aquifers, which has an effect on the size of freshwater lenses present in sandy deposits. The thickness of the freshwater lenses is important in the context of farmland salinization and coastal ecosystems survival. This study presents numerical models that simulate continuous and discontinuous recharge in sandy coastal aquifers and the thickness of resulting fresh water lenses under current and future climate scenarios. Temperature data for the period 1960-1990 from LOCCLIM FAO and from the IPCC SRES A1b scenario for 2070-2100, have been used to calculate the potential evapotranspiration. Potential recharge was defined as the difference between the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in twelve locations around the world: Ameland (The Netherlands), Auckland and Wellington (New Zealand), Hong Kong, Ravenna (Italy), Mekong (Vietnam), Mumbai (India), New Jersey (USA), Nile Delta (Egypt), Kobe and Tokyo (Japan), and Singapore. These locations have shallow coastal aquifers along low lying coasts and comparable aquifer structure, which is the result of similar sediment supply and deposition in the Holocene as well as by the sea level changes from the last ice age to the present time. Particular attention has been paid to temporal variations of natural recharge that can vary from continuous recharge throughout the year to discontinuous recharge. The most dramatic reduction in the magnitude of potential annual recharge by the end of this century will occur at lower latitudes (Mumbai, Singapore, Hong Kong and Mekong). The most pronounced change in length of the dry period occurs for Kobe (Japan) and Singapore even though the total annual amount of recharge remains practically the same. The Influence of variable recharge on the size of freshwater lenses surrounded by saline water is simulated with the SEAWAT model. Models where the recharge is applied

Changes of MCP-1, FKN, and related cytokines in the serum and cerebrospinal fluid in children with epidemic encephalitis B

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Qian Wang

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Objective: To explore the changes of MCP-1, FKN, and related cytokines in the serum and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF in children with epidemic encephalitis B. Methods: A total of 40 children with epidemic encephalitis B who were admitted in our hospital from June, 2014 to June, 2017 were included in the study and divided into the severe group (n=15 and general group (n=25 according to the severity group. Moreover, 20 children who were suffered from oblique inguinal hernia, perineal adhesion, and cryptorchidism were served as the control group. The serum and CSF specimens were collected 24 h after admission and during the recovery period in children with epidemic encephalitis B. The serum specimen was collected 24 h after admission in the control group, and CSF specimen was collected during the lumbar puncture. ELISA was used to detect CMP-1, FKN, IL-1β, IL-18, and TNF-α levels in the serum and CSF. CMP-1, FKN, IL-1β, IL-18, and TNF-α levels in children with epidemic encephalitis B on the day after admission and 2-3 weeks after admission and in the control group were compared. The changes of CMP-1, FKN, IL-1β, IL-18, and TNF-α in children with severe and general epidemic encephalitis B were observed. Results: CMP-1 and FKN levels in the serum and CSF in children with epidemic encephalitis B in the critical stage were significantly higher than those in the recovery stage and in the control group. The serum CMP-1 and FKN levels in children with epidemic encephalitis B during the recovery stage were not significantly different from those in the control group, while CMP-1 and FKN levels in CSF were significantly higher than those in the control group. CMP-1 and FKN levels in the serum and CSF in children with severe epidemic encephalitis B were significantly higher than those in the general group. IL-1β, TNF-α, and IL-18 levels in the serum and CSF in children with epidemic encephalitis B during the critical stage were significantly higher than

Temporal dynamics of groundwater-surface water interaction under the effects of climate change: A case study in the Kiskatinaw River Watershed, Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Saha, Gopal Chandra; Li, Jianbing; Thring, Ronald W.; Hirshfield, Faye; Paul, Siddhartho Shekhar

2017-08-01

Groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interaction plays a vital role in the functioning of riparian ecosystem, as well as sustainable water resources management. In this study, temporal dynamics of GW-SW interaction were investigated under climate change. A case study was chosen for a study area along the Kiskatinaw River in Mainstem sub-watershed of the Kiskatinaw River Watershed, British Columbia, Canada. A physically based and distributed GW-SW interaction model, Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA), was used. Two different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios (i.e., A2: heterogeneous world with self-reliance and preservation of local identities, and B1: more integrated and environmental friendly world) of SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) from Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used for climate change study for 2020-2040. The simulation results showed that climate change influences significantly the temporal patterns of GW-SW interaction by generating variable temporal mean groundwater contributions to streamflow. Due to precipitation variability, these contributions varied monthly, seasonally, and annually. The mean annual groundwater contribution to streamflow during 2020-2040 under the A2 and B1 scenarios is expected to be 74.5% (σ = 2%) and 75.6% (σ = 3%), respectively. As compared to that during the base modeling period (2007-2011), the mean annual groundwater contribution to streamflow during 2020-2040 under the A2 and B1 scenarios is expected to decrease by 5.5% and 4.4%, respectively, due to the increased precipitation (on average 6.7% in the A2 and 4.8% in the B1 scenarios) and temperature (on average 0.83 °C in the A2 and 0.64 °C in the B1 scenarios). The results obtained from this study will provide useful information in the long-term seasonal and annual water extractions from the river for future water supply, as well as for evaluating the ecological conditions of the

Changes of diffuse UV-B radiation on clear sky days

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kon, H.; Ichibayashi, R.; Matsuoka, N.

2004-01-01

Measurements of global and diffuse UV-B radiation have been carried out in Matsudo City (35.3 deg N, 139.9 deg E), Japan. Forty clear sky days were chosen and the annual variation of global and diffuse UV-B radiation was analyzed. The dependence of the diffuse component on visibility was also examined. The results are summarized as follows. 1. The maximum of daily global UV-B was beyond 40kJrec mE-2 daysup(-1) and was recorded in late July. The maximum of daily diffuse UV-B was recorded in early July. There was a tendency for the diffuse UV-B to be larger than the direct UV-B during a year in Matsudo. 2. The fraction of diffuse UV-B to global UV-B changed a lot each day. The observed minimum value of the fraction during a year was recorded in early August. 3. There was a tendency for the fraction of diffuse UV-B to global UV-B to decrease when visibility increased. 4. The diffuse components that change a lot each day were properly estimated by using the expected minimum fraction and visibility. Key words: Diffuse UV-B, Ultraviolet, UV-B, Visibility

Bu-2470, a new peptide antibiotic complex. II. Structure determination of Bu-2470 A, B1, B2a and B2b.

Science.gov (United States)

Sugawara, K; Yonemoto, T; Konishi, M; Matsumoto, K; Miyaki, T; Kawaguchi, H

1983-06-01

The structures of Bu-2470 A, B1, B2a, and B2b have been determined. Bu-2470 A is a simple octapeptide having no fatty acid moiety, while Bu-2470 B1, B2a and B2b are octapeptides that have been acylated with a beta-hydroxy C11 or C10 fatty acid. The octapeptide structure of Bu-2470 components was found identical with that of octapeptin C1, hence generic names of octapeptin C0, C2, C3 and C4 are proposed for Bu-2470 A, B1, B2a and B2b, respectively.

Heat shock factors HsfB1 and HsfB2b are involved in the regulation of Pdf1.2 expression and pathogen resistance in Arabidopsis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, Mukesh; Busch, Wolfgang; Birke, Hannah; Kemmerling, Birgit; Nürnberger, Thorsten; Schöffl, Friedrich

2009-01-01

In order to assess the functional roles of heat stress-induced class B-heat shock factors in Arabidopsis, we investigated T-DNA knockout mutants of AtHsfB1 and AtHsfB2b. Micorarray analysis of double knockout hsfB1/hsfB2b plants revealed as strong an up-regulation of the basal mRNA-levels of the defensin genes Pdf1.2a/b in mutant plants. The Pdf expression was further enhanced by jasmonic acid treatment or infection with the necrotrophic fungus Alternaria brassicicola. The single mutant hsfB2b and the double mutant hsfB1/B2b were significantly improved in disease resistance after A. brassicicola infection. There was no indication for a direct interaction of Hsf with the promoter of Pdf1.2, which is devoid of perfect HSE consensus Hsf-binding sequences. However, changes in the formation of late HsfA2-dependent HSE binding were detected in hsfB1/B2b plants. This suggests that HsfB1/B2b may interact with class A-Hsf in regulating the shut-off of the heat shock response. The identification of Pdf genes as targets of Hsf-dependent negative regulation is the first evidence for an interconnection of Hsf in the regulation of biotic and abiotic responses.

Complex formation of EphB1/Nck/Caskin1 leads to tyrosine phosphorylation and structural changes of the Caskin1 SH3 domain

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Pesti Szabolcs

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Scaffold proteins have an important role in the regulation of signal propagation. These proteins do not possess any enzymatic activity but can contribute to the formation of multiprotein complexes. Although scaffold proteins are present in all cell types, the nervous system contains them in the largest amount. Caskin proteins are typically present in neuronal cells, particularly, in the synapses. However, the signaling mechanisms by which Caskin proteins are regulated are largely unknown. Results Here we demonstrate that EphB1 receptor tyrosine kinase can recruit Caskin1 through the adaptor protein Nck. Upon activation of the receptor kinase, the SH2 domain of Nck binds to one of its tyrosine residues, while Nck SH3 domains interact with the proline-rich domain of Caskin1. Complex formation of the receptor, adaptor and scaffold proteins results in the tyrosine phosphorylation of Caskin1 on its SH3 domain. The phosphorylation sites were identified by mass-spectrometry as tyrosines 296 and 336. To reveal the structural consequence of this phosphorylation, CD spectroscopy was performed. This measurement suggests that upon tyrosine phosphorylation the structure of the Caskin1 SH3 domain changes significantly. Conclusion Taken together, we propose that the scaffold protein Caskin1 can form a complex with the EphB1 tyrosine kinase via the Nck protein as a linker. Complex formation results in tyrosine phosphorylation of the Caskin1 SH3 domain. Although we were not able to identify any physiological partner of the SH3 domain so far, we could demonstrate that phosphorylation on conserved tyrosine residues results in marked changes in the structure of the SH3 domain.

Expected changes in future temperature extremes and their elevation dependency over the Yellow River source region

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Y. Hu

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM and the outputs from two global climate models, we investigate possible changes in mean and extreme temperature indices and their elevation dependency over the Yellow River source region for the two future periods 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 under the IPCC SRES A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios. Changes in interannual variability of mean and extreme temperature indices are also analyzed. The validation results show that SDSM performs better in reproducing the maximum temperature-related indices than the minimum temperature-related indices. The projections show that by the middle and end of the 21st century all parts of the study region may experience increases in both mean and extreme temperature in all seasons, along with an increase in the frequency of hot days and warm nights and with a decrease in frost days. By the end of the 21st century, interannual variability increases in all seasons for the frequency of hot days and warm nights and in spring for frost days while it decreases for frost days in summer. Autumn demonstrates pronounced elevation-dependent changes in which around six out of eight indices show significant increasing changes with elevation.

ACTH Regulation of Adrenal SR-B1

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Wen-Jun eShen

2016-05-01

Full Text Available The adrenal gland is one of the prominent sites for steroid hormone synthesis. Lipoprotein-derived cholesterol esters delivered via scavenger receptor, class B type 1 (SR-B1 constitute the dominant source of cholesterol for steroidogenesis, particularly in rodents. ACTH stimulates steroidogenesis through downstream actions on multiple components involved in steroidogenesis. Both acute and chronic ACTH treatment can modulate SR-B1 function including its transcription, its post transcriptional stability, its phosphorylation and dimerization status, as well as its interaction with other protein partners; all of which result in changes in the ability of SR-B1 to mediate HDL-cholesterol ester uptake and the supply of cholesterol for conversion to steroids. Here we provide a review of the recent findings on the regulation of adrenal SR-B1 function by ACTH.

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Lozano, Olga M; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Arca, Bachisio; Alcasena, Fermin J; Monteiro, Antonio T; Finney, Mark A; Del Giudice, Liliana; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Spano, Donatella

2017-10-01

We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041-2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

In vitro study of vitamins B1, B2 and B6 adsorption on zeolite

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Basić Zorica

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Background/Aim. Zeolites are the hydratised alumosilicates of alcali and earthalcali cations, which have a long three-dimensional crystal structure. Preparations on the basis of zeolites are used for adsorption of organic and nonorganic toxic substances and they, also, find more and more use in veterinary and human medicine and pharmacy. The aim of this study was to evaluate the possibilities of zeolite to adsorb vitamins B1, B2 and B6 in acid and neutral solutions, as well as the characteristics of the process (saturability, reversibility and competitivness. Methods. The specific and sensitive HPLC method with fluorescent detector was used for determination of vitamins B1, B2 and B6. Analyte separation and detection were carried out by applying the reverse-phase method on column C18. An in vitro experiment was done by testing the influence of pH value (2 and 7, concentration of vitamin solution (1, 2 and 5 mg/L, the lenght of contact with zeolite (10-180 min and cation competitiveness on the exchange capacity, which is achieved by media and zeolite contact, as well as a possible vitamins desorption through changing pH value of the solution at 37°C. Jon competitiveness was examined by adding commercial feed mixture (grower with a defined content of the examined vitamines in zeolite solutions the pH = 2 and pH = 7. Results. Vitamins B1, B2 and B6 were stable in both pH=2 and pH = 7 solutions at 37°C, in the defined time intervals. In acid solution concentrations of vitamins significantly declined in the first 10 min, with no significant decline in further 30 min for all the three concentrations testch. In neutral solution, after the addition of 1% zeolite, decrease in vitamins concentrations was slightly lower than in acid solution, but also significant in the first 10 min of the contact with zeolite. It was found that zeolite, which adsorbed vitamins in acid solution, transferred in the neutral one released a significant quantity of adsorbed

Data of evolutionary structure change: 1GCWC-2QU0B [Confc[Archive

Lifescience Database Archive (English)

Full Text Available dbChain>B 2QU0B ence>ARHHGNEFTPVence> B 2QU0B ence>GFWGK--VKVDEence> 0 C B AFTACEKQTIGKIAQVLAKSPEAYGAECLARLFVTHPGS...ex>0 1GCW C 1GCWC ATHLT-EFSPD...ne> PRO CA 171 ASP CA 215 2QU0

Climate Change, Soils, and Human Health

Science.gov (United States)

Brevik, Eric C.

2013-04-01

need. There is also a great need for a better understanding of how soil organisms will respond to climate change because those organisms are incredibly important in a number of soil processes, including the carbon and nitrogen cycles. All of these questions are important in trying to understand human health impacts. More information on climate change, soils, and human health issues can be found in Brevik (2012). References Brevik, E.C. 2012. Climate change, soils, and human health. In: E.C. Brevik and L. Burgess (Eds). Soils and human health. CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL. in press. IPCC. 2007. Summary for policymakers. pp. 1-18. In S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds). Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Climate change and the biosphere

Science.gov (United States)

F. Stuart Chapin

2008-01-01

Scientific assessments now clearly demonstrate the ecologic and societal consequences of human induced climate change, as detailed by the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Global warming spells danger for Earth's biomes, which in turn play an important role in climate change. On the following pages, you will read about some of...

Scientific consensus and climate change: the codification of a global research agenda

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boehmer-Christiansen, S.

1993-01-01

The 'scientific consensus' which influenced the Framework Convention on Climate Change was carefully drafted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) between 1988 and 1992. In spite of it, there have been divergent national responses and policy controversy continues. The willingness of States to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases appears to be declining. An explanation for this is proposed which stresses the question of whether the nature of the scientific advice as sought and given bears some responsibility for the weak policy response. Institutional and personality factors in the formulation of IPCC advice are explored, as is the policy model upon which advice was given. It is concluded that this model is intrinsically unable to generate decisive environmental policy, but rather invites the institutions of the natural sciences and macro-economics to endow their research agendas with claims to policy relevance through the production of future 'findings'. (Author)

CD25+ B-1a Cells Express Aicda

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Hiroaki Kaku

2017-06-01

Full Text Available B-1a cells are innate-like B-lymphocytes producing natural antibodies. Activation-induced cytidine deaminase (AID, a product of the Aicda gene, plays a central role in class-switch recombination and somatic hypermutation in B cells. Although a role for Aicda in B-1a cells has been suggested on the basis of experiments with knock out (KO mice, whether B-1a cells express Aicda, and if so, which B-1a cell subpopulation expresses Aicda, remains unknown. Here, we demonstrate that B-1 cells express Aicda, but at a level below that expressed by germinal center (GC B cells. We previously reported that B-1a cells can be subdivided based on CD25 expression. We show here that B-1a cell Aicda expression is concentrated in the CD25+ B-1a cell subpopulation. These results suggest the possibility that previous studies of memory B cells identified on the basis of Aicda expression may have inadvertently included an unknown number of CD25+ B-1a cells. Although B-1a cells develop normally in the absence of Aicda, a competitive reconstitution assay reveals enhanced vigor for AID KO B-1a cell bone marrow (BM progenitors, as compared with wild-type BM B-1 cell progenitors. These results suggest that AID inhibits the development of B-1a cells from BM B-1 cell progenitors in a competitive environment.

Phytic acid decreases deoxynivalenol and fumonisin B1-induced changes on swine jejunal explants

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Elisângela Olegário da Silva

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the present study was to investigate the effects of phytic acid (IP6 on morphological and immunohistochemical parameters on intestinal explants exposed to deoxynivalenol (DON and fumonisin B1 (FB1. The jejunal explants were exposed for 4 h to different treatments: control, DON (10 μM, DON plus 2.5 mM or 5 mM IP6, FB1 (70 μM, and FB1 plus 2.5 mM or 5 mM IP6. Both mycotoxins induced significant intestinal lesions and decreased villi height. The presence of 2.5 mM and 5 mM IP6 significantly inhibited the morphological changes caused by the mycotoxins. DON induced a significant increase in caspase-3 (83% and cyclooxygenase-2 (71.3% expression compared with the control. The presence of 5 mM IP6 induced a significant decrease in caspase-3 (43.7% and Cox-2 (48% expression compared with the DON group. FB1 induced a significant increase in caspase-3 expression (47% compared to the control, whereas IP6 induced no significant change in this expression. A significant decrease in cell proliferation was observed when explants were exposed to 5 mM of IP6 in comparison with the DON and FB1 groups. The present data provide evidence that phytic acid modulates the toxic effects induced by DON and FB1 on intestinal tissue.

Climate for women in climate science: Women scientists and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Gay-Antaki, Miriam; Liverman, Diana

2018-02-27

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an authoritative and influential source of reports on climate change. The lead authors of IPCC reports include scientists from around the world, but questions have been raised about the dominance of specific disciplines in the report and the disproportionate number of scholars from the Global North. In this paper, we analyze the as-yet-unexamined issue of gender and IPCC authorship, looking at changes in gender balance over time and analyzing women's views about their experience and barriers to full participation, not only as women but also at the intersection of nationality, race, command of English, and discipline. Over time, we show that the proportion of female IPCC authors has seen a modest increase from less than 5% in 1990 to more than 20% in the most recent assessment reports. Based on responses from over 100 women IPCC authors, we find that many women report a positive experience in the way in which they are treated and in their ability to influence the report, although others report that some women were poorly represented and heard. We suggest that an intersectional lens is important: not all women experience the same obstacles: they face multiple and diverse barriers associated with social identifiers such as race, nationality, command of English, and disciplinary affiliation. The scientific community benefits from including all scientists, including women and those from the Global South. This paper documents barriers to participation and identifies opportunities to diversify climate science. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

MR fingerprinting with simultaneous B1 estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Buonincontri, Guido; Sawiak, Stephen J

2016-10-01

MR fingerprinting (MRF) can be used for quantitative estimation of physical parameters in MRI. Here, we extend the method to incorporate B1 estimation. The acquisition is based on steady state free precession MR fingerprinting with a Cartesian trajectory. To increase the sensitivity to the B1 profile, abrupt changes in flip angle were introduced in the sequence. Slice profile and B1 effects were included in the dictionary and the results from two- and three-dimensional (3D) acquisitions were compared. Acceleration was demonstrated using retrospective undersampling in the phase encode directions of 3D data exploiting redundancy between MRF frames at the edges of k-space. Without B1 estimation, T2 and B1 were inaccurate by more than 20%. Abrupt changes in flip angle improved B1 maps. T1 and T2 values obtained with the new MRF methods agree with classical spin echo measurements and are independent of the B1 field profile. When using view sharing reconstruction, results remained accurate (error Reson Med 76:1127-1135, 2016. © 2015 The Authors Magnetic Resonance in Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made. © 2015 The Authors Magnetic Resonance in Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

CHANGE HAS ARRIVED

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

孙佳慧

2016-01-01

The planet is warming at an alarming rate,and more concise data means that the effects can be better measured.Whether it’s building bridges in cities or preparing for floods in the countryside,the numbers are showing that the concern over climate change is no longer just handwringing.China has experienced noticeable climate change over the past century.According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)

Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

Science.gov (United States)

Frieler, Katja; Lange, Stefan; Piontek, Franziska; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Schewe, Jacob; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang; Chini, Louise; Denvil, Sebastien; Emanuel, Kerry; Geiger, Tobias; Halladay, Kate; Hurtt, George; Mengel, Matthias; Murakami, Daisuke; Ostberg, Sebastian; Popp, Alexander; Riva, Riccardo; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Suzuki, Tatsuo; Volkholz, Jan; Burke, Eleanor; Ciais, Philippe; Ebi, Kristie; Eddy, Tyler D.; Elliott, Joshua; Galbraith, Eric; Gosling, Simon N.; Hattermann, Fred; Hickler, Thomas; Hinkel, Jochen; Hof, Christian; Huber, Veronika; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Krysanova, Valentina; Marcé, Rafael; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Pierson, Don; Tittensor, Derek P.; Vautard, Robert; van Vliet, Michelle; Biber, Matthias F.; Betts, Richard A.; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Deryng, Delphine; Frolking, Steve; Jones, Chris D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tian, Hanqin; Yamagata, Yoshiki

2017-11-01

In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global

Influencia del cambio climático en los escenarios del futuro sobre plantaciones de Eucalipto Influence of climate change on future scenarios on Eucalyptus plantations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yhasmin Paiva Rody

2012-09-01

climate data for current and future scenarios. The study was developed in the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil, and normal climatological data was obtained from rain gauges. The water balance was calculated by the Tornthwaite and Mather methodology. Temperature was estimated using data of latitude and altitude. Data from the SRTM were used to obtain the altitude and zone of agricultural mechanization, based on slopes. For interpolation of the data, the inverse square distance method was used. The future data were estimated by the HADCM3 model of the IPCC in scenarios: A (pessimistic and B (optimistic for the years of 2020, 2050 and 2080. It is estimated that the zones suitable for planting are reduced in both scenarios, diminishing by 71.1% and 82% for scenarios A and B, respectively in the year 2080. The water deficit acted as a limiting factor for planting. Due to the complexity of interactions of biotic and abiotic factors, new capability studies should be performed in the context of climate change.

Session B4 Management for sustainable use — Global climate ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The IPCC Third Assessment Report confirms that the evidence for global climate change is now stronger than ever. While efforts to minimise climate change are vital, some degree of change is already inevitable. The key questions for rangelands are no longer whether climate change will occur, but how to adapt to it, and if ...

Climate change, environment and development

OpenAIRE

Okereke, Chukwumerije; Massaquoi, Abu-Bakar S.

2017-01-01

Climate change, a quintessential environmental problem, is generally recognised as the most important development challenge in the 21st century (IPCC, 2014). In addition to acknowledging its many significant direct consequences, climate change is increasingly used to frame discussions on other important global challenges, such as health, energy and food security. This chapter provides understanding of the intricate and complex relationship between climate change, environment and development.

Comparing climate change and species invasions as drivers of coldwater fish population extirpations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sapna Sharma

Full Text Available Species are influenced by multiple environmental stressors acting simultaneously. Our objective was to compare the expected effects of climate change and invasion of non-indigenous rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax on cisco (Coregonus artedii population extirpations at a regional level. We assembled a database of over 13,000 lakes in Wisconsin, USA, summarising fish occurrence, lake morphology, water chemistry, and climate. We used A1, A2, and B1 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC of future temperature conditions for 15 general circulation models in 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 totalling 78 projections. Logistic regression indicated that cisco tended to occur in cooler, larger, and deeper lakes. Depending upon the amount of warming, 25-70% of cisco populations are predicted to be extirpated by 2100. In addition, cisco are influenced by the invasion of rainbow smelt, which prey on young cisco. Projecting current estimates of rainbow smelt spread and impact into the future will result in the extirpation of about 1% of cisco populations by 2100 in Wisconsin. Overall, the effect of climate change is expected to overshadow that of species invasion as a driver of coldwater fish population extirpations. Our results highlight the potentially dominant role of climate change as a driver of biotic change.

ENDF/B-VII.1 versus ENDF/B-VII.0: What's Different?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cullen, D.E.

2012-01-01

Recently the new ENDF/B-VII.1 library was released; this completely replaces the earlier ENDF/B-VII.0 library. One of the first questions we ask about a new library is: What's Different? Here I attempt to at least partially answer this question. I present results in both tabulated form (so you can quickly determine if any evaluations of interest to you have changed), and graphic form (so that you can see how much evaluations have changed and in what energy ranges). For the table I have compared what I refer to as the ENDF neutron data, namely MF=1 through 6. Here I did a character-by-character comparison of the same sections (MF/MT) that appear I both ENDF/B-VII.0 and VII.1; here I found differences in 170 evaluations. For the plots I have only compared the total cross sections for all evaluations that are common to both libraries, and I found that of the 423 evaluations in ENDF/B-VII.1, 120 of these have total cross sections that differ by 1% or more from the evaluation of the same isotope in ENDF/B-VII.0. This should be considered only a preliminary comparison; obviously there can be more subtle important differences that do not effect of total cross sections. Here I present plots comparing the total cross section of these 120 isotopes. The plots are only broad overviews of the total cross sections over their entire energy range. If you have interest in more detailed plots for specific evaluations, you can download the evaluations (1,2) and the PREPRO (3) codes I used to prepare and view the data. This is all I needed to do my comparisons, and is all you should need to do any more detailed comparisons to meet your individual needs.

Nitrous oxide emissions in the Shanghai river network: implications for the effects of urban sewage and IPCC methodology.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Zhongjie; Deng, Huanguang; Wang, Dongqi; Ye, Mingwu; Tan, Yongjie; Li, Yangjie; Chen, Zhenlou; Xu, Shiyuan

2013-10-01

Global nitrogen (N) enrichment has resulted in increased nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emission that greatly contributes to climate change and stratospheric ozone destruction, but little is known about the N(2)O emissions from urban river networks receiving anthropogenic N inputs. We examined N(2)O saturation and emission in the Shanghai city river network, covering 6300 km(2), over 27 months. The overall mean saturation and emission from 87 locations was 770% and 1.91 mg N(2)O-N m(-2) d(-1), respectively. Nitrous oxide (N(2)O) saturation did not exhibit a clear seasonality, but the temporal pattern was co-regulated by both water temperature and N loadings. Rivers draining through urban and suburban areas receiving more sewage N inputs had higher N(2)O saturation and emission than those in rural areas. Regression analysis indicated that water ammonium (NH(4)(+)) and dissolved oxygen (DO) level had great control on N(2)O production and were better predictors of N(2)O emission in urban watershed. About 0.29 Gg N(2)O-N yr(-1) N(2)O was emitted from the Shanghai river network annually, which was about 131% of IPCC's prediction using default emission values. Given the rapid progress of global urbanization, more study efforts, particularly on nitrification and its N(2)O yielding, are needed to better quantify the role of urban rivers in global riverine N(2)O emission. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, Christine M; Caswell, Hal; Runge, Michael C; Regehr, Eric V; Amstrup, Steve C; Stirling, Ian

2010-10-01

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in lambda in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log lambdas, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log lambdas approximately - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population

Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gisselle Yang Xie

Full Text Available Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd, a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary, including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific and also separately per region (region-specific. One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas

Climate change. Scientific background and process

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alfsen, Knut H; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Seip, Hans Martin; Skodvin, Tora

1999-07-01

The paper describes briefly the natural and man-made forces behind climate change and outlines climate variations in the past. It also discusses the future impact of anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases, and the background, organisation and functioning of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Climate change: Scientific background and process

OpenAIRE

Alfsen, Knut H.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Seip, Hans Martin; Skodvin, Tora

2000-01-01

The paper gives a brief description of natural and man-made forces behind climate change and outlines climate variations in the past together with a brief synopsis likely future impacts of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. The paper also gives a briefing on the background, organisation and functioning of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Change of T, B lymphocyte subsets and Th1/Th2 indexes of patients with recurrent spontaneous abortion

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Shi-Hua Zhou

2016-01-01

Objective:To analyze and investigate the change state of T, B lymphocyte subsets and Th1/Th2 indexes of patients with recurrent spontaneous abortion. Methods: A total of 92 patients with recurrent spontaneous abortion in our hospital from June 2013 to July 2015 were selected as the observation group and 92 women with health delivery history at the same time were selected as the control group,then the peripheral blood T, B lymphocyte subsets and Th1/Th2 indexes of two groups were detected and compared and the peripheral blood T, B lymphocyte subsets and Th1/Th2 indexes of patients with different gestational age at abortion and abortion times were compared too. Results:The peripheral blood T, B lymphocyte subsets and Th1/Th2 indexes of observation group and control group all had obvious differences,and those blood indexes levels' differences of patients with different gestational age at abortion and abortion times were obvious too, all P<0.05 and the differences were significant. Conclusions: The T, B lymphocyte subsets and Th1/Th2 indexes of patients with recurrent spontaneous abortion show abnormal state and the differences of detection results of patients with different gestational age at abortion and abortion times are relatively obvious,so those indexes should be monitored and improved intentinonally.

A single nucleotide change affects fur-dependent regulation of sodB in H. pylori.

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Beth M Carpenter

Full Text Available Helicobacter pylori is a significant human pathogen that has adapted to survive the many stresses found within the gastric environment. Superoxide Dismutase (SodB is an important factor that helps H. pylori combat oxidative stress. sodB was previously shown to be repressed by the Ferric Uptake Regulator (Fur in the absence of iron (apo-Fur regulation [1]. Herein, we show that apo regulation is not fully conserved among all strains of H. pylori. apo-Fur dependent changes in sodB expression are not observed under iron deplete conditions in H. pylori strains G27, HPAG1, or J99. However, Fur regulation of pfr and amiE occurs as expected. Comparative analysis of the Fur coding sequence between G27 and 26695 revealed a single amino acid difference, which was not responsible for the altered sodB regulation. Comparison of the sodB promoters from G27 and 26695 also revealed a single nucleotide difference within the predicted Fur binding site. Alteration of this nucleotide in G27 to that of 26695 restored apo-Fur dependent sodB regulation, indicating that a single base difference is at least partially responsible for the difference in sodB regulation observed among these H. pylori strains. Fur binding studies revealed that alteration of this single nucleotide in G27 increased the affinity of Fur for the sodB promoter. Additionally, the single base change in G27 enabled the sodB promoter to bind to apo-Fur with affinities similar to the 26695 sodB promoter. Taken together these data indicate that this nucleotide residue is important for direct apo-Fur binding to the sodB promoter.

Protein tyrosine phosphatase 1B (PTP1B) is required for cardiac lineage differentiation of mouse embryonic stem cells.

Science.gov (United States)

Eshkiki, Zahra Shokati; Ghahremani, Mohammad Hossein; Shabani, Parisa; Firuzjaee, Sattar Gorgani; Sadeghi, Asie; Ghanbarian, Hossein; Meshkani, Reza

2017-01-01

Protein tyrosine phosphatase 1B (PTP1B) has been shown to regulate multiple cellular events such as differentiation, cell growth, and proliferation; however, the role of PTP1B in differentiation of embryonic stem (ES) cells into cardiomyocytes remains unexplored. In the present study, we investigated the effects of PTP1B inhibition on differentiation of ES cells into cardiomyocytes. PTP1B mRNA and protein levels were increased during the differentiation of ES cells into cardiomyocytes. Accordingly, a stable ES cell line expressing PTP1B shRNA was established. In vitro, the number and size of spontaneously beating embryoid bodies were significantly decreased in PTP1B-knockdown cells, compared with the control cells. Decreased expression of cardiac-specific markers Nkx2-5, MHC-α, cTnT, and CX43, as assessed by real-time PCR analysis, was further confirmed by immunocytochemistry of the markers. The results also showed that PTP1B inhibition induced apoptosis in both differentiated and undifferentiated ES cells, as presented by increasing the level of cleaved caspase-3, cytochrome C, and cleaved PARP. Further analyses revealed that PTP1B inhibition did not change proliferation and pluripotency of undifferentiated ES cells. Taken together, the data presented here suggest that PTP1B is essential for proper differentiation of ES cells into cardiomyocytes.

Data of evolutionary structure change: 1B0FA-2FOCA [Confc[Archive

Lifescience Database Archive (English)

Full Text Available 1B0FA-2FOCA 1B0F 2FOC A A IVGGRRARPHAWPFMVSLQLA----GGHFCGATLIAPNF...>2FOC A 2FOCA SLQYRSGSSWAHTC ...tryChain> 2FOC A 2FOCA PLHCLVNGQY...ine> 2FOC A 2FOCA...in>A 2FOCA HCVDR--ELTFR GG

An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wanderson Bucker Moraes

2012-03-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2 focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.

Phosphodiesterase-1b (Pde1b) knockout mice are resistant to forced swim and tail suspension induced immobility and show upregulation of Pde10a.

Science.gov (United States)

Hufgard, Jillian R; Williams, Michael T; Skelton, Matthew R; Grubisha, Olivera; Ferreira, Filipa M; Sanger, Helen; Wright, Mary E; Reed-Kessler, Tracy M; Rasmussen, Kurt; Duman, Ronald S; Vorhees, Charles V

2017-06-01

Major depressive disorder is a leading cause of suicide and disability. Despite this, current antidepressants provide insufficient efficacy in more than 60% of patients. Most current antidepressants are presynaptic reuptake inhibitors; postsynaptic signal regulation has not received as much attention as potential treatment targets. We examined the effects of disruption of the postsynaptic cyclic nucleotide hydrolyzing enzyme, phosphodiesterase (PDE) 1b, on depressive-like behavior and the effects on PDE1B protein in wild-type (WT) mice following stress. Littermate knockout (KO) and WT mice were tested in locomotor activity, tail suspension (TST), and forced swim tests (FST). FST was also used to compare the effects of two antidepressants, fluoxetine and bupropion, in KO versus WT mice. Messenger RNA (mRNA) expression changes were also determined. WT mice underwent acute or chronic stress and markers of stress and PDE1B expression were examined. Pde1b KO mice exhibited decreased TST and FST immobility. When treated with antidepressants, both WT and KO mice showed decreased FST immobility and the effect was additive in KO mice. Mice lacking Pde1b had increased striatal Pde10a mRNA expression. In WT mice, acute and chronic stress upregulated PDE1B expression while PDE10A expression was downregulated after chronic but not acute stress. PDE1B is a potential therapeutic target for depression treatment because of the antidepressant-like phenotype seen in Pde1b KO mice.

Climate change, global risks, challenges and decisions. Synthesis report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Richardson, K.; Steffen, W.; Schellnhuber, H.J.

2009-03-01

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009 (the 15th Conference of the Parties, COP-15) will be a critical step in developing a global response to the threat of climate change caused by human activities. The primary scientific input to those negotiations is the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2007. The IPCC report has already been instrumental in increasing both public and political awareness of the societal risks associated with unchecked emission of greenhouse gases. Since the production of the IPCC report, new knowledge has emerged that furthers understanding of the impacts of human influence on the climate and the response options and approaches that are available to tackle this complex issue. To bring this new knowledge together, the International Alliance of Research Universities organised an international scientific congress on climate change, Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions, which was held in Copenhagen from 10-12 March 2009. Participants came from nearly 80 different countries and contributed with more than 1400 scientific presentations. Abstracts for all of the scientific presentations made can be found at www.iop.org/EJ/volume/1755-1315/6, and a transcript of the closing plenary session can be found at environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/opinion/39126. This synthesis report presents an up-to-date overview of a broad range of research relevant to climate change - including fundamental climate science, the impacts of a changing climate on society and environment, and the many tools and approaches available to deal effectively with the challenge of climate change. (LN)

International IPCC workshop on methane and nitrous oxide: methods in national emissions inventories and options for control

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Amstel, A.R. van (ed.)

1993-07-01

This workshop had two main objectives: to support the development of an internationally agreed methodology and reporting format for national emission inventories of greenhouse gases by mid 1993, as coordinated by the Science Working Group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD); and the development of technical options for reduction of these greenhouse gases and the assessment of the socio-economic feasibility of these options. These proceedings contain the overview papers presented at the workshop, the background papers prepared for the working group sessions and the conclusions and recommendations of the working groups put forward during these sessions. 16 poster summaries are also included. During the workshop, 8 different sources of methane were discussed - oil and gas, coal mining, ruminants, animal waste, landfills and sewage treatments, combustion and industry, rice production and wetlands, and biomass burning - and 2 sources of nitrous oxide - agricultural soils and combustion and industry. All papers have been abstracted separately.

PTP1B antisense oligonucleotide lowers PTP1B protein, normalizes blood glucose, and improves insulin sensitivity in diabetic mice

Science.gov (United States)

Zinker, Bradley A.; Rondinone, Cristina M.; Trevillyan, James M.; Gum, Rebecca J.; Clampit, Jill E.; Waring, Jeffrey F.; Xie, Nancy; Wilcox, Denise; Jacobson, Peer; Frost, Leigh; Kroeger, Paul E.; Reilly, Regina M.; Koterski, Sandra; Opgenorth, Terry J.; Ulrich, Roger G.; Crosby, Seth; Butler, Madeline; Murray, Susan F.; McKay, Robert A.; Bhanot, Sanjay; Monia, Brett P.; Jirousek, Michael R.

2002-01-01

The role of protein-tyrosine phosphatase 1B (PTP1B) in diabetes was investigated using an antisense oligonucleotide in ob/ob and db/db mice. PTP1B antisense oligonucleotide treatment normalized plasma glucose levels, postprandial glucose excursion, and HbA1C. Hyperinsulinemia was also reduced with improved insulin sensitivity. PTP1B protein and mRNA were reduced in liver and fat with no effect in skeletal muscle. Insulin signaling proteins, insulin receptor substrate 2 and phosphatidylinositol 3 (PI3)-kinase regulatory subunit p50α, were increased and PI3-kinase p85α expression was decreased in liver and fat. These changes in protein expression correlated with increased insulin-stimulated protein kinase B phosphorylation. The expression of liver gluconeogenic enzymes, phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase, and fructose-1,6-bisphosphatase was also down-regulated. These findings suggest that PTP1B modulates insulin signaling in liver and fat, and that therapeutic modalities targeting PTP1B inhibition may have clinical benefit in type 2 diabetes. PMID:12169659

New climate change report turns up the heat on energy policymakers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shepherd, John [nuclear 24, London (United Kingdom)

2014-12-15

Any doubts about the role of nuclear power in fighting the damaging effects of climate change should be dispelled once and for all by the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The key findings of the IPCC's so-called 'Synthesis Report', published in November 2014, said that if left unchecked, climate change ''will increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems''. The Synthesis Report, which brought together the findings of the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report produced by more than 800 scientists and released over more than one year, noted that multiple mitigation pathways are available that could limit warming to below 2 C relative to pre-industrial levels, all of which would need substantial cuts in emissions reductions over the coming few decades and near-zero emissions of CO{sub 2} and other long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) by the end of the century. As 2014 draws to a close, perhaps those with the power to effect energy policy change will take time to reflect on the mounting evidence of what is good, and what is not good, in terms of balancing the world's energy needs with the planet's overall health.

Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in Southern Ocean seabirds.

Science.gov (United States)

Barbraud, Christophe; Rivalan, Philippe; Inchausti, Pablo; Nevoux, Marie; Rolland, Virginie; Weimerskirch, Henri

2011-01-01

1. Recent climate change has affected a wide range of species, but predicting population responses to projected climate change using population dynamics theory and models remains challenging, and very few attempts have been made. The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature and sea ice extent are projected to warm and shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases increase, and several top predator species are affected by fluctuations in these oceanographic variables. 2. We compared and projected the population responses of three seabird species living in sub-tropical, sub-Antarctic and Antarctic biomes to predicted climate change over the next 50 years. Using stochastic population models we combined long-term demographic datasets and projections of sea surface temperature and sea ice extent for three different IPCC emission scenarios (from most to least severe: A1B, A2, B1) from general circulation models of Earth's climate. 3. We found that climate mostly affected the probability to breed successfully, and in one case adult survival. Interestingly, frequent nonlinear relationships in demographic responses to climate were detected. Models forced by future predicted climatic change provided contrasted population responses depending on the species considered. The northernmost distributed species was predicted to be little affected by a future warming of the Southern Ocean, whereas steep declines were projected for the more southerly distributed species due to sea surface temperature warming and decrease in sea ice extent. For the most southerly distributed species, the A1B and B1 emission scenarios were respectively the most and less damaging. For the two other species, population responses were similar for all emission scenarios. 4. This is among the first attempts to study the demographic responses for several populations with contrasted environmental conditions, which illustrates that investigating the effects of climate change on core population dynamics

A NEW CELL CLONE DERIVED FROM TRICHOPLUSIA NI TN5B1-4 CELLS

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Jian-xiaoTian; Chang-youLi; Gui-lingZheng; Guo-xunLi; PingWang; Granados

2004-01-01

The characteristics of a cultured cell line do not always remain stable and may change upon continuous passage. Most continuous cell lines, even after cloning, possess several genotypes that are constantly changing. There are numerous selective and adaptive culture processes, in addition to genetic instability, that may improve phenotypic change in cell growth, virus susceptibility, gene expression, and production of virus. Similar detrimental effects of long term passaging of insect cells have also been reported for continuous cell lines, for example, Tn5B 1-4 cells, which are the most widely used for the baculovirus expression vector system (BEVS), provide superior production of recombinant proteins,however, this high productivity may be more evident in low passage cells. In this paper, we describe the isolation of a cell clone, Tn5B-40, from low passage Tn5B 1-4 cells. The growth characteristics,productions of virus, and high level of recombinant protein productions were determined. The results showed the susceptibility of both clone and Tn5B 1-4 cells to wild-type AcNPV was approximately the same rate with over 95% of infection; when the cloned cells were infected with recombinant baculoviruses expressing β-galactosidase and secreted alkaline phosphatase (SEAP), expression of the recombinant proteins from the cloned cells exceeded that from the parental Tn5B 1-4 cells.

Understanding Proposed Changes to the H-1B Visa: Protecting American Government Interests, Improving the Opportunities for American Companies, or Potentially Hurting Hopeful Immigrants?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rebecca Stonawski

2013-08-01

Full Text Available This paper will examine the US government’s proposed changes to the H-1B visa, a dual-intent visa meant to bring highly-skilled individuals to the US labor market. It will first explain what the H-1B visa is and is not and what might happen to the H-1B visa in the future. The focus of the paper, however, will be on how the H-1B visa program is failing. The thesis of this article is that reform to the H-1B visa may be very good for the US employer and the US economy. However, the proposed legislation keeps a number of disadvantageous features for H-1B holders intact, rather than addressing them.

model prediction of maize yield responses to climate change

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Prof. Adipala Ekwamu

identified in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report (IPCC-TAR) as a major .... carbon dioxide concentration and management ... address conditions where water is a key limiting ... Laboratory, United States.

Climate change in China and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change

OpenAIRE

Luo Y.; Qin D.; Huang J.

2010-01-01

Since the first assessment report (FAR) of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1990, the international scientific community has made substantial progresses in climate change sciences. Changes in components of climate system, including the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, indicate that global warming is unequivocal. Instrumental records demonstrate that the global mean temperature has a significant increasing trend during the 20th century and in the latest 50 years the warmi...

Combating the effects of climatic change on forests by mitigation strategies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dieter Matthias

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Forests occur across diverse biomes, each of which shows a specific composition of plant communities associated with the particular climate regimes. Predicted future climate change will have impacts on the vulnerability and productivity of forests; in some regions higher temperatures will extend the growing season and thus improve forest productivity, while changed annual precipitation patterns may show disadvantageous effects in areas, where water availability is restricted. While adaptation of forests to predicted future climate scenarios has been intensively studied, less attention was paid to mitigation strategies such as the introduction of tree species well adapted to changing environmental conditions. Results We simulated the development of managed forest ecosystems in Germany for the time period between 2000 and 2100 under different forest management regimes and climate change scenarios. The management regimes reflect different rotation periods, harvesting intensities and species selection for reforestations. The climate change scenarios were taken from the IPCC's Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES. We used the scenarios A1B (rapid and successful economic development and B1 (high level of environmental and social consciousness combined with a globally coherent approach to a more sustainable development. Our results indicate that the effects of different climate change scenarios on the future productivity and species composition of German forests are minor compared to the effects of forest management. Conclusions The inherent natural adaptive capacity of forest ecosystems to changing environmental conditions is limited by the long life time of trees. Planting of adapted species and forest management will reduce the impact of predicted future climate change on forests.

The understanding of world climate change; Les connaissances sur le changement climatique mondial

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Petit, M.

2008-07-01

After having recalled that the problem of global warming in relationship with human activities has been studied since the end of the nineteenth century and since then by different scientific programs, the author describes how the IPCC's or Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's report is produced. He briefly comments how Earth's temperature is determined and the various natural parameters which influence the climate on Earth. He recalls how the IPCC showed the actual influence of human activities, and which changes have actually been observed

The climate is changing; Klimaet er i endring

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alfsen, Knut H.

2001-07-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has finalized its Third Assessment Report. Among its conclusions is that we must expect continued changes in our climate, despite our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Planning for and adapting to climate change are therefore necessary. As a starting point, CICERO has written this short note on expected impacts in Norway. The main conclusions are that (1) Adaptation to climate change is necessary (2) Substantial impacts are expected for several important sectors in Norway (3) The local and central authorities should now consider and start planning for adaptation measures. (4) There is still a need for more knowledge about potential impacts of climate change in Norway. (author)

Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Frieler

2017-11-01

Full Text Available In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1 separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations; (2 quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0 with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3 assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016 and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across

Data of evolutionary structure change: 1CG5B-2ZLWD [Confc[Archive

Lifescience Database Archive (English)

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Data of evolutionary structure change: 1CG8B-2ZLWD [Confc[Archive

Lifescience Database Archive (English)

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Changes in snow cover over China in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shi Ying; Gao Xuejie; Wu Jia; Giorgi, Filippo

2011-01-01

On the basis of the climate change simulations conducted using a high resolution regional climate model, the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model, RegCM3, at 25 km grid spacing, future changes in snow cover over China are analyzed. The simulations are carried out for the period of 1951–2100 following the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. The results suggest good performances of the model in simulating the number of snow cover days and the snow cover depth, as well as the starting and ending dates of snow cover to the present day (1981–2000). Their spatial distributions and amounts show fair consistency between the simulation and observation, although with some discrepancies. In general, decreases in the number of snow cover days and the snow cover depth, together with postponed snow starting dates and advanced snow ending dates, are simulated for the future, except in some places where the opposite appears. The most dramatic changes are found over the Tibetan Plateau among the three major snow cover areas of Northeast, Northwest and the Tibetan Plateau in China.

Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Processes of a Small Agricultural Watershed

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sushant Mehan

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Weather extremes and climate variability directly impact the hydrological cycle influencing agricultural productivity. The issues related to climate change are of prime concern for every nation as its implications are posing negative impacts on society. In this study, we used three climate change scenarios to simulate the impact on local hydrology of a small agricultural watershed. The three emission scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios, of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007 analyzed in this study were A2 (high emission, A1B (medium emission, and B1 (low emission. A process based hydrologic model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated and validated for the Skunk Creek Watershed located in eastern South Dakota. The model performance coefficients revealed a strong correlation between simulated and observed stream flow at both monthly and daily time step. The Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency for monthly model performace was 0.87 for the calibration period and 0.76 for validation period. The future climate scenarios were built for the mid-21st century time period ranging from 2046 to 2065. The future climate data analysis showed an increase in temperatures between 2.2 °C to 3.3 °C and a decrease in precipitation from 1.8% to 4.5% expected under three different climate change scenarios. A sharp decline in stream flow (95.92%–96.32%, run-off (83.46%–87.00%, total water yield (90.67%–91.60%, soil water storage (89.99%–92.47%, and seasonal snow melt (37.64%–43.06% are predicted to occur by the mid-21st century. In addition, an increase in evapotranspirative losses (2%–3% is expected to occur within the watershed when compared with the baseline period. Overall, these results indicate that the watershed is highly susceptible to hydrological and agricultural drought due to limited water availability. These results are limited to the available climate projections, and future refinement in

Data of evolutionary structure change: 1VL8B-2UVDE [Confc[Archive

Lifescience Database Archive (English)

Full Text Available 1VL8B-2UVDE 1VL8 2UVD B E VFDLRGRVALVTGGSRGLGFGIAQGLAEAGCSVVVASRN...seq1> --MLKGKVALVTGASRGIGRAIAIDLAKQGANVVVNYAGNEQKANEVVDEIKKL-GSDAIAVRADVANA...D E 2UVDE VNYAGNEQKAN E 2UVDE EIKKL-GSDAI 2 2UVD E 2UVDE

Indications of the changing nature of rainfall in Ethiopia: The ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

user

Climate Change (IPCC) the working definition of climate change is put as a statistically ... rainfall in the western part of the region than the eastern. From their trend analysis of .... be said then that the behaviour of the 17 stations' increases and ...

A Governing Framework for Climate Change Adaptation in the Built Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel A. Mazmanian

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Developing an approach to governing adaptation to climate change is severely hampered by the dictatorship of the present when the needs of future generations are inadequately represented in current policy making. We posit this problem as a function of the attributes of adaptation policy making, including deep uncertainty and nonstationarity, where past observations are not reliable predictors of future outcomes. Our research links organizational decision-making attributes with adaptation decision making and identifies cases in which adaptation actions cause spillovers, free riding, and distributional impacts. We develop a governing framework for adaptation that we believe will enable policy, planning, and major long-term development decisions to be made appropriately at all levels of government in the face of the deep uncertainty and nonstationarity caused by climate change. Our framework requires that approval of projects with an expected life span of 30 years or more in the built environment include minimum building standards that integrate forecasted climate change impacts from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC intermediate scenario. The intermediate IPCC scenario must be downscaled to include local or regional temperature, water availability, sea level rise, susceptibility to forest fires, and human habitation impacts to minimize climate-change risks to the built environment. The minimum standard is systematically updated every six years to facilitate learning by formal and informal organizations. As a minimum standard, the governance framework allows jurisdictions to take stronger actions to increase their climate resilience and thus maintain system flexibility.

Protein Tyrosine Phosphatase 1B (PTP1B): A Potential Target for Alzheimer's Therapy?

Science.gov (United States)

Vieira, Marcelo N N; Lyra E Silva, Natalia M; Ferreira, Sergio T; De Felice, Fernanda G

2017-01-01

Despite significant advances in current understanding of mechanisms of pathogenesis in Alzheimer's disease (AD), attempts at drug development based on those discoveries have failed to translate into effective, disease-modifying therapies. AD is a complex and multifactorial disease comprising a range of aberrant cellular/molecular processes taking part in different cell types and brain regions. As a consequence, therapeutics for AD should be able to block or compensate multiple abnormal pathological events. Here, we examine recent evidence that inhibition of protein tyrosine phosphatase 1B (PTP1B) may represent a promising strategy to combat a variety of AD-related detrimental processes. Besides its well described role as a negative regulator of insulin and leptin signaling, PTB1B recently emerged as a modulator of various other processes in the central nervous system (CNS) that are also implicated in AD. These include signaling pathways germane to learning and memory, regulation of synapse dynamics, endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress and microglia-mediated neuroinflammation. We propose that PTP1B inhibition may represent an attractive and yet unexplored therapeutic approach to correct aberrant signaling pathways linked to AD.

The effect of climate change and natural variability on wind loading values

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Steenbergen, R.D.J.M.; Koster, T.; Geurts, C.P.W.

2012-01-01

Since 2006, a number of countries developed reports on climate change following the IPCC 4th assessment reports. For the Netherlands, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) presented four new climate scenarios. Typically, climate change is described in terms of average changes, but

B1 to B2 structural phase transition in LiF under pressure

Science.gov (United States)

Jain, Aayushi; Dixit, R. C.

2018-05-01

In the last few decades the alkali halides emerged as crystals with useful applications and their high-pressure behaviour is the most intensively studied subject in high-pressure physics/chemistry, material science, and geosciences. Most alkali halides follow the B1 (NaCl-type)→B2 (CsCl-type) phase-transition route under pressure. In the present paper, we have investigated the characteristics of structural phase transition that occurred in Lithium Florid compound under high pressure. The transition pressure of B1-B2 was calculated using an effective interionic interaction potential (EIOP). The changes of the characteristics of crystals like, Gibbs free energy, cohesive energy, volume collapse, and lattice constant are calculated for the B1 and B2 structures. These data were compared with the available experimental and theoretical data.

Melatonin receptor genes (mel-1a, mel-1b, mel-1c) are differentially expressed in the avian germ line.

Science.gov (United States)

Kawashima, Takaharu; Stepińska, Urszula; Kuwana, Takashi; Olszańska, Bozenna

2008-09-01

The presence of melatonin receptor transcripts (mel-1a, mel-1b and mel-1c) was investigated in primordial germ cells (PGCs), immature and mature oocytes, and sperm of Japanese quail by reverse transcription--polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). The mel-1a transcript was detected in as few as in a thousand PGCs. Significant differences in the expression of melatonin receptor genes were found in differentiating germ cells: in PGCs only the mel-1a receptor was expressed, in blastoderms and immature oocytes all three transcripts (mel-1a, mel-1b, mel-1c) were present, while in mature ovulated oocytes the predominant transcript was mel-1c (with sporadic occurrence of mel-1a and mel-1b). In sperm, mel-1a and mel-1c were present but mel-1b was absent. This indicates that the expression of melatonin receptor genes changes throughout the differentiation of PGCs into adult gametes: during oocyte differentiation two additional transcripts, mel-1b and mel-1c, are synthesized in addition to mel-1a, but at oocyte maturation, mel-1a and mel-1b are degraded and only mel-1c remains. During male line (spermatozoa) differentiation mel-1c is transcribed in addition to mel-1a, with mel-1b being completely absent. Since melatonin and the activities of enzymes participating in melatonin synthesis are present in the avian yolk, it is reasonable to suggest a role for this molecule in early avian development and germ line differentiation. We propose that melatonin may act as a signaling molecule regulating some differentiation processes (e.g., cell proliferation, migration, etc.) before the formation of neural and hormonal systems.

Field assessment of semi-aerobic condition and the methane correction factor for the semi-aerobic landfills provided by IPCC guidelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, Sangjae; Nam, Anwoo; Yi, Seung-Muk; Kim, Jae Young

2015-01-01

Highlights: • CH 4 /CO 2 and CH 4 + CO 2 % are proposed as indices to evaluate semi-aerobic landfills. • A landfill which CH 4 /CO 2 > 1.0 is difficult to be categorized as semi-aerobic landfill. • Field conditions should be carefully investigated to determine landfill types. • The MCF default value for semi-aerobic landfills underestimates the methane emissions. - Abstract: According to IPCC guidelines, a semi-aerobic landfill site produces one-half of the amount of CH 4 produced by an equally-sized anaerobic landfill site. Therefore categorizing the landfill type is important on greenhouse gas inventories. In order to assess semi-aerobic condition in the sites and the MCF value for semi-aerobic landfill, landfill gas has been measured from vent pipes in five semi-aerobically designed landfills in South Korea. All of the five sites satisfied requirements of semi-aerobic landfills in 2006 IPCC guidelines. However, the ends of leachate collection pipes which are main entrance of air in the semi-aerobic landfill were closed in all five sites. The CH 4 /CO 2 ratio in landfill gas, indicator of aerobic and anaerobic decomposition, ranged from 1.08 to 1.46 which is higher than the values (0.3–1.0) reported for semi-aerobic landfill sites and is rather close to those (1.0–2.0) for anaerobic landfill sites. The low CH 4 + CO 2 % in landfill gas implied air intrusion into the landfill. However, there was no evidence that air intrusion has caused by semi-aerobic design and operation. Therefore, the landfills investigated in this study are difficult to be classified as semi-aerobic landfills. Also MCF of 0.5 may significantly underestimate methane emissions compared to other researches. According to the carbon mass balance analyses, the higher MCF needs to be proposed for semi-aerobic landfills. Consequently, methane emission estimate should be based on field evaluation for the semi-aerobically designed landfills

Field assessment of semi-aerobic condition and the methane correction factor for the semi-aerobic landfills provided by IPCC guidelines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jeong, Sangjae [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of); Nam, Anwoo [Korea Environment Corporation, 42 Hwangyeong-ro, Seo-gu, Incheon 404-170 (Korea, Republic of); Yi, Seung-Muk [Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jae Young, E-mail: jaeykim@snu.ac.kr [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of)

2015-02-15

Highlights: • CH{sub 4}/CO{sub 2} and CH{sub 4} + CO{sub 2}% are proposed as indices to evaluate semi-aerobic landfills. • A landfill which CH{sub 4}/CO{sub 2} > 1.0 is difficult to be categorized as semi-aerobic landfill. • Field conditions should be carefully investigated to determine landfill types. • The MCF default value for semi-aerobic landfills underestimates the methane emissions. - Abstract: According to IPCC guidelines, a semi-aerobic landfill site produces one-half of the amount of CH{sub 4} produced by an equally-sized anaerobic landfill site. Therefore categorizing the landfill type is important on greenhouse gas inventories. In order to assess semi-aerobic condition in the sites and the MCF value for semi-aerobic landfill, landfill gas has been measured from vent pipes in five semi-aerobically designed landfills in South Korea. All of the five sites satisfied requirements of semi-aerobic landfills in 2006 IPCC guidelines. However, the ends of leachate collection pipes which are main entrance of air in the semi-aerobic landfill were closed in all five sites. The CH{sub 4}/CO{sub 2} ratio in landfill gas, indicator of aerobic and anaerobic decomposition, ranged from 1.08 to 1.46 which is higher than the values (0.3–1.0) reported for semi-aerobic landfill sites and is rather close to those (1.0–2.0) for anaerobic landfill sites. The low CH{sub 4} + CO{sub 2}% in landfill gas implied air intrusion into the landfill. However, there was no evidence that air intrusion has caused by semi-aerobic design and operation. Therefore, the landfills investigated in this study are difficult to be classified as semi-aerobic landfills. Also MCF of 0.5 may significantly underestimate methane emissions compared to other researches. According to the carbon mass balance analyses, the higher MCF needs to be proposed for semi-aerobic landfills. Consequently, methane emission estimate should be based on field evaluation for the semi-aerobically designed landfills.

Dynamics of combined forest damage risks for 21st century (SRES A1B, B1)

Science.gov (United States)

Panferov, Oleg; Merklein, Johannes; Sogachev, Andrey; Junghans, Udo; Ahrends, Bernd

2010-05-01

The ongoing climate change can result in increasing frequency of weather extremes (Leckebusch et al., 2008) which in turn can produce wide area forest damage (windthrows, droughts, insect attacks) within forest ecosystems in Europe. The probability and extent of damage, depend not only on a strength of a driving force itself but especially on combinations of effecting agents and their interactions with forest ecosystem structure and soil properties. The combined effect of several factors which are not the extremes themselves can lead to the biotic and/or abiotic damage so that the combination becomes an extreme event. As soon as a damage event occurs, the forest structure is changed. The changes in forest structure in their turn strengthen or inhibits the influence of different climatic factors thus increase or decrease the probability of the next damage event creating positive or negative feedbacks. To assess the roles of separate meteorological factors and their combinations in forest damage under present and future climatic conditions the coupled model was created in University of Goettingen, as a part of a Decision Support System (Jansen et al, 2008, Panferov et al., 2009). The model combines the 3D ABL Model SCADIS (Panferov and Sogachev, 2008) with modified soil hydrology model BROOK 90 (Federer, 2003, Ahrends et al. 2009) and the model of climate dependent biotic damage. The projected future developments of forest damage events in 21st Century were carried out under conditions of SRES scenarios A1B and B1; the present conditions were evaluated using the measured data of German Weather Service. Climate scenario data of coupled ECHAM5-MPIOM were downscaled by the regional climate model Climate Local Model (CLM) to the spatial resolution of 0.2° x 0.2° and temporal resolution of 24 hours. Using these data as input the small-scale coupled process based modeling was then carried out for example region of Solling, Germany calculating the water and energy balance

Policy options to respond to rapid climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Swart, R.J.; Marinova, N.A.; Bakker, S.; Tilburg, van X.

2009-01-01

Ongoing research on climate change indicates that we cannot rule out the possibility of extreme climatic changes, beyond current IPCC scenarios. The thinking about policy responses to address these risks is still in its infancy. This study explores the possibilities for responding to extreme

Climate Change and Maize Production: Empirical Evidence from ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Michael Madukwe

been argued for as major reasons for global climate change. IPCC (2007) confirmed global fluctuations in ... examine adaptation strategies for climate change; and analyse fishers' livelihoods and adaptive capacity. ... (vii) Average annual income from fishing: Respondents were asked to state their income from fishing. 2.

Arctic Climate and Climate Change with a Focus on Greenland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stendel, Martin; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Petersen, Dorthe

2008-01-01

Paleoclimatic evidence suggests that the Arctic presently is warmer than during the last 125,000 years, and it is very likely11The term "likelihood" is used here as in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). According to the definition in this rep...... Ice Sheet, the fate of arctic sea ice and a possible weakening of the thermohaline circulation (THC) under future warming conditions have led to increased research activities, including an assessment of arctic climate and climate change (ACIA, 2005), the fourth assessment report (AR4...

Effects of emissions change, climate change and long-range transport on regional modeling of future U.S. particulate matter pollution and speciation

Science.gov (United States)

He, Hao; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Wuebbles, Donald J.

2018-04-01

This study investigates the future U.S. PM2.5 pollution under multiple emissions scenarios, climate states, and long-range transport (LRT) effects using the regional Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model integrated with a regional climate model. CMAQ with fixed chemical lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) successfully reproduces the present-day PM2.5 pollution and its major species in rural and suburban areas, but has some discrepancies in urban areas such as the Los Angeles Basin, where detailed emissions and meteorology conditions cannot be resolved by the 30 km grid. Its performance is slightly worsened when using dynamic chemical LBCs from global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, which provide cleaner conditions into the CMAQ lateral boundaries. Under future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios, CMAQ projects large PM2.5 reductions (∼40% for A1B and ∼20% for A1Fi scenario) in the eastern United States, but slight to moderate increases (∼5% for A1B and ∼10% for A1Fi) in the western United States. The projected increases are particularly large (up to 30%) near the Mexico-U.S. border, suggesting that Mexico is a major source for future U.S. PM2.5 pollution. The effect from climate change alone is estimated to increase PM2.5 levels ubiquitously (∼5% for both A1B and A1Fi) over the United States, except for a small decrease in the Houston, Texas area, where anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) emissions dominate. This climate penalty, however, is substantially smaller than effects of emissions change, especially in the eastern United States. Future PM2.5 pollution is affected substantially (up to -20%) by changes in SO2 emissions and moderately (3-5%) by changes in NOx and NH3 emissions. The long-range transport (LRT) effects, which are estimated by comparing CMAQ simulations with fixed and dynamic LBCs, are regional dependent, causing up to 10-20% decrease over the western United

ARID1B is a specific vulnerability in ARID1A-mutant cancers.

Science.gov (United States)

Helming, Katherine C; Wang, Xiaofeng; Wilson, Boris G; Vazquez, Francisca; Haswell, Jeffrey R; Manchester, Haley E; Kim, Youngha; Kryukov, Gregory V; Ghandi, Mahmoud; Aguirre, Andrew J; Jagani, Zainab; Wang, Zhong; Garraway, Levi A; Hahn, William C; Roberts, Charles W M

2014-03-01

Recent studies have revealed that ARID1A, encoding AT-rich interactive domain 1A (SWI-like), is frequently mutated across a variety of human cancers and also has bona fide tumor suppressor properties. Consequently, identification of vulnerabilities conferred by ARID1A mutation would have major relevance for human cancer. Here, using a broad screening approach, we identify ARID1B, an ARID1A homolog whose gene product is mutually exclusive with ARID1A in SWI/SNF complexes, as the number 1 gene preferentially required for the survival of ARID1A-mutant cancer cell lines. We show that loss of ARID1B in ARID1A-deficient backgrounds destabilizes SWI/SNF and impairs proliferation in both cancer cells and primary cells. We also find that ARID1A and ARID1B are frequently co-mutated in cancer but that ARID1A-deficient cancers retain at least one functional ARID1B allele. These results suggest that loss of ARID1A and ARID1B alleles cooperatively promotes cancer formation but also results in a unique functional dependence. The results further identify ARID1B as a potential therapeutic target for ARID1A-mutant cancers.

Isolation and Characterization of Plantaricin Produced by Lactobacillus plantarum Strains (IIA-1A5, IIA-1B1, IIA-2B2

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. I. Arief

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Bacteriocins produced by Indonesian lactic acid bacteria Lactobacillus plantarum IIA-1A5, IIA-1B1, IIA-2B2 were purified and characterized. Plantaricin W gene had been successfully amplified from all strains. This amplicon showed the expected 200 bp size of plantaricin W gene. This bacteriocins purified from L. plantarum IIA-1A5, IIA-1B1, and IIA-2B2 were named plantaricin IIA-1A5, IIA-1B1, and IIA-2B2. Purification by cation exchange chromatography increased the purity (fold and activity of plantaricins. Purity of plantaricin IIA-1A5 was increased by 3.13 fold with specific activity 13.40 AU/mg. Plantaricin IIA-1B1 had 2.98 fold purity with specific activity 5.12 AU/mg, while purity of plantaricin IIA-2B2 was 1.37 fold with specific activity 7.70 AU/mg. All plantaricins could inhibit the growth of pathogenic bacteria, such as Escherichia coli, Salmonella typhimurium, Bacillus cereus, and Staphylococcus aureus. Plantaricins could be digested by trypsin. Stability of plantaricins at 80 oC for 30 min and at 121 oC for 15 min were affected by type of plantaricin and species of pathogenic bacteria. Generally, plantaricin IIA-1A5 was better as antimicrobial agent than plantaricin IIA-1B1 and plantaricin IIA-2B2.

A new tool for exploring climate change induced range shifts of conifer species in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Kou, Xiaojun; Li, Qin; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Zhao, Yiheng; Liu, Shirong

2014-01-01

It is inevitable that tree species will undergo considerable range shifts in response to anthropogenic induced climate change, even in the near future. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are valuable tools in exploring general temporal trends and spatial patterns of potential range shifts. Understanding projections to future climate for tree species will facilitate policy making in forestry. Comparative studies for a large number of tree species require the availability of suitable and standardized indices. A crucial limitation when deriving such indices is the threshold problem in defining ranges, which has made interspecies comparison problematic until now. Here we propose a set of threshold-free indices, which measure range explosion (I), overlapping (O), and range center movement in three dimensions (Dx, Dy, Dz), based on fuzzy set theory (Fuzzy Set based Potential Range Shift Index, F-PRS Index). A graphical tool (PRS_Chart) was developed to visualize these indices. This technique was then applied to 46 Pinaceae species that are widely distributed and partly common in China. The spatial patterns of the modeling results were then statistically tested for significance. Results showed that range overlap was generally low; no trends in range size changes and longitudinal movements could be found, but northward and poleward movement trends were highly significant. Although range shifts seemed to exhibit huge interspecies variation, they were very consistent for certain climate change scenarios. Comparing the IPCC scenarios, we found that scenario A1B would lead to a larger extent of range shifts (less overlapping and more latitudinal movement) than the A2 and the B1 scenarios. It is expected that the newly developed standardized indices and the respective graphical tool will facilitate studies on PRS's for other tree species groups that are important in forestry as well, and thus support climate adaptive forest management.

A new tool for exploring climate change induced range shifts of conifer species in China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaojun Kou

Full Text Available It is inevitable that tree species will undergo considerable range shifts in response to anthropogenic induced climate change, even in the near future. Species Distribution Models (SDMs are valuable tools in exploring general temporal trends and spatial patterns of potential range shifts. Understanding projections to future climate for tree species will facilitate policy making in forestry. Comparative studies for a large number of tree species require the availability of suitable and standardized indices. A crucial limitation when deriving such indices is the threshold problem in defining ranges, which has made interspecies comparison problematic until now. Here we propose a set of threshold-free indices, which measure range explosion (I, overlapping (O, and range center movement in three dimensions (Dx, Dy, Dz, based on fuzzy set theory (Fuzzy Set based Potential Range Shift Index, F-PRS Index. A graphical tool (PRS_Chart was developed to visualize these indices. This technique was then applied to 46 Pinaceae species that are widely distributed and partly common in China. The spatial patterns of the modeling results were then statistically tested for significance. Results showed that range overlap was generally low; no trends in range size changes and longitudinal movements could be found, but northward and poleward movement trends were highly significant. Although range shifts seemed to exhibit huge interspecies variation, they were very consistent for certain climate change scenarios. Comparing the IPCC scenarios, we found that scenario A1B would lead to a larger extent of range shifts (less overlapping and more latitudinal movement than the A2 and the B1 scenarios. It is expected that the newly developed standardized indices and the respective graphical tool will facilitate studies on PRS's for other tree species groups that are important in forestry as well, and thus support climate adaptive forest management.

A clarion call for aeolian research to engage with global land degradation and climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Chappell, Adrian; Lee, Jeffrey A.; Baddock, Matthew; Gill, Thomas E.; Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Leys, John F.; Marticorena, Beatrice; Petherick, Lynda; Schepanski, Kerstin; Tatarko, John; Telfer, Matt; Webb, Nicholas P.

2018-06-01

This editorial represents a clarion call for the aeolian research community to provide increased scientific input to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and an invitation to apply for ISAR funding to organize a working group to support this engagement.

Selective up-regulation of 5-HT(1B/1D) receptors during organ culture of cerebral arteries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hoel, N L; Hansen-Schwartz, J; Edvinsson, L

2001-01-01

5-Hydroxytryptamine (5-HT) is thought to be involved in migraine headache and the pathophysiology of cerebrovascular diseases. Previous data show that organ culture induces a phenotypic change in cerebral vessels. Therefore we investigated if these changes also applied for the vasoconstrictive 5-HT......(cultured) 6.8+/-0.4). The response was inhibited by the 5-HT(1B/1D) selective antagonist GR55562 (pEC50(fresh) 5.1+/-0.2 and pEC50(cultured) 6.0+/-0.3). The organ model might mimic the phenotypic changes during cerebrovascular diseases....... receptors. Rat cerebral arteries express 5-HT2 receptors. Using organ culture we observed a phenotypic change with a selective up-regulation of 5-HT(1B/1D) receptors. This was revealed by an increased sensitivity to the selective 5-HT(1B/1D) agonist 5-CT after organ culture (pEC50(fresh) 5.6+/-0.2 and pEC50...

Deletion of SNURF/SNRPN U1B and U1B* upstream exons in a ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

RESEARCH ARTICLE. Deletion of SNURF/SNRPN U1B and U1B* upstream exons in a child ... whereby genes are expressed in a parent-of-origin dependent manner. One of the ... lity, neurodevelopmental delay, features of attention deficit hyperactivity .... Received 16 December 2015; accepted 8 January 2016. Unedited ...

Conceptual understanding of climate change with a globally resolved energy balance model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dommenget, Dietmar [Monash University, School of Mathematical Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Floeter, Janine [Leibniz Institute for Marine Sciences, Kiel (Germany)

2011-12-15

The future climate change projections are essentially based on coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulations, which give a distinct global warming pattern with arctic winter amplification, an equilibrium land-sea warming contrast and an inter-hemispheric warming gradient. While these simulations are the most important tool of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions, the conceptual understanding of these predicted structures of climate change and the causes of their uncertainties is very difficult to reach if only based on these highly complex CGCM simulations. In the study presented here we will introduce a very simple, globally resolved energy balance (GREB) model, which is capable of simulating the main characteristics of global warming. The model shall give a bridge between the strongly simplified energy balance models and the fully coupled 4-dimensional complex CGCMs. It provides a fast tool for the conceptual understanding and development of hypotheses for climate change studies, which shall build a basis or starting point for more detailed studies of observations and CGCM simulations. It is based on the surface energy balance by very simple representations of solar and thermal radiation, the atmospheric hydrological cycle, sensible turbulent heat flux, transport by the mean atmospheric circulation and heat exchange with the deeper ocean. Despite some limitations in the representations of the basic processes, the models climate sensitivity and the spatial structure of the warming pattern are within the uncertainties of the IPCC models simulations. It is capable of simulating aspects of the arctic winter amplification, the equilibrium land-sea warming contrast and the inter-hemispheric warming gradient with good agreement to the IPCC models in amplitude and structure. The results give some insight into the understanding of the land-sea contrast and the polar amplification. The GREB model suggests that the regional inhomogeneous

CYP1B1 expression, a potential risk factor for breast cancer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goth-Goldstein, Regine; Erdmann, Christine A.; Russell, Marion

2001-05-31

CYP1B1 expression in non-tumor breast tissue from breast cancer patients and cancer-free individuals was determined to test the hypothesis that high CYP1B1 expression is a risk factor for breast cancer. Large interindividual variations in CYP1B1 expression were found with CYP1B1 levels notably higher in breast cancer patients than cancer-free individuals. The results indicate that CYP1B1 might play a role in breast cancer either through increased PAH activation or through metabolism of endogenous estrogen to a carcinogenic derivative.

Age and associated fibrocystic changes are prognostically significant in patients with small node-negative (T1a,bN0) invasive breast cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Durak, Merih Guray; Gonzalez-Angulo, Ana M; Hanrahan, Emer O; Broglio, Kristine R; Valero, Vicente; Hortobagyi, Gabriel N; Hunt, Kelly K; Sahin, Aysegul A

2011-01-01

Some patients with small (≤1.0 cm) node-negative (T1a,bN0) invasive breast cancer (IBC) who undergo only local therapy experience recurrences. There is limited information on prognostic factors in these patients. We sought to identify prognostic factors associated with disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with T1a,bN0 IBC. Histologic sections from 273 T1a,bN0 IBC patients treated at M. D. Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) between 1980 and 1999 were reviewed. Microscopic tumor size; multifocality; histologic type, grade of tumor; presence, type, grade of associated ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS); presence of fibrocystic changes (FCC) with/without atypia; and lymphovascular invasion were identified. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to evaluate DFS and OS. Median patient age was 58 years, median follow-up period was 10.8 years, and median tumor size was 0.8 cm. Multifocal disease was identified in 26% of cases. At 10 years, the DFS and OS rates were 91% and 88%, respectively. Twenty-one percent of patients had extensive (>50%), and 30% had grade 3 DCIS. Nonproliferative FCC and proliferative FCC with/without atypia were present in 80%, 36%, and 38% of patients, respectively. In univariate analysis, age at diagnosis (p < 0.0001), grade (p = 0.015), and percent (p = 0.046) of DCIS were significantly associated with DFS; presence of FCC was associated with longer DFS and OS. In multivariable models, age and presence of FCC remained significantly associated with survival. Age at diagnosis and associated FCC are significant factors in predicting recurrence in patients with T1a,bN0 IBC. Adjuvant systemic therapy should be discussed with and considered for young patients with T1a,bN0 IBC. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Climate change at the coast: from global to local

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watkinson, A.R.

2009-01-01

The IPCC has recently documented substantial changes in the global heat content of the oceans, salinity, sea level, thermal expansion and biogeochemistry. Over the 21. century anticipated climate related changes include: a rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more; increases in sea surface temperatures up to 3 deg. C; an intensification of tropical and extra tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/ run-off; and ocean acidification. The Tyndall Centre has been exploring how to down-scale the global analysis to the local level within the framework of a coastal simulator. The simulator provides information on possible future states of the coast through the 21. Century under a range of climate and socio-economic futures and shoreline management options. It links models within a nested framework, recognizing three scales: (1) global, (2) regional, and (3) local. The linked models describe a range of processes, including marine climate (waves, surges and mean sea level), sand bank morpho-dynamics, wave transformation, shoreline morpho-dynamics, built environment scenarios, ecosystem change, and erosion and flood risk. Analyses from the simulator reinforce conclusions from IPCC WG2: coasts will be exposed to increasing risks over coming decades due to many compounding climate-change factors; the impact of climate change on coasts will be exacerbated by increasing human induced pressures; the unavoidability of sea-level rise even in the longer-term frequently conflicts with present day human development patterns and trends. (author)

The climatic change induced by human activities; El cambio climatico inducido por actividades humanas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Balairon Ruiz, L.

2004-07-01

The climate of the Earth is a changing climate. Along their history many natural climate changes have existed in all time scales. At the present time we use the term climate changes have existed in all time scales. At the present time we use the term climate change in a restricted way, understanding that we have referring to a singular change that has their origin in the modification of the natural composition of the atmosphere. The increase of greenhouse gases from the second half the XVIII century, is due to the human activities of fossil fuels burning to obtain energy and to industrial and agricultural activities needing for the development of a world which population has been duplicated between 1960 and 2000, until overcoming the 6,000 million inhabitants. In particular, the concentrations of carbon dioxide-CO{sub 2} have increased in a 34%. The more recent emission scenarios proposed by the IPCC (SRES, 2000) are based on hypothesis about the population evolution, the energy consumption and the word patterns of development, which are grouped in four families dominated as A1, A2, B1 and B2. The answer for these scenarios from a range of climate models results in an increase of the world average surface atmospheric temperature between 1,4 degree centigree and 5,8 degree centigree and a corresponding sea level rise understood between 9 cm and 88 cm. The changes in the precipitation patterns show us that could be above to the current one in high and media latitudes and below in subtropical latitudes, with exceptions highly depending of the model used. (Author)

Studies to support the IPCC and other climate change discussions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schwengels, P.

1991-01-01

Developing countries and multilateral development banks are recognizing that the capital requirements for increasing energy supply - particularly electricity - and the foreign exchange implications of increasing imports of fossil fuels will become a major constraint to continued economic development for many countries. Thus, for most countries, business-as-usual energy development is not sustainable on strictly economic terms. In addition, the inefficient fossil-fueled energy systems in developing countries are major contributors to the growing local and regional environmental problems in these nations. There is growing recognition in many countries that economic development must be environmentally sustainable as well, and that traditional energy development often does not meet this test. The industrialized countries are becoming concerned about the risks of global climate change. While recognizing that they themselves are the major historic contributors to greenhouse gas build-up, they also can see that rapid economic development in the developing world along traditional energy-intensive patterns could drive future growth in greenhouse gas emissions. The industrialized countries currently provide significant amounts of assistance to developing countries in the energy sector. The concerns about climate change provide strong incentives to these countries to intensify their energy-related assistance, to improve international cooperation in this area and, most importantly, to redirect energy assistance toward more efficient and cleaner technologies

Predominant porB1A and porB1B genotypes and correlation of gene mutations with drug resistance in Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolates in Eastern China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tang Renxian

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Variations of porB1A and porB1B genes and their serotypes exist in Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolates from different geographical areas, and some site mutations in the porB1B gene correlate with drug resistance. Methods The β-lactamase production of N. gonorrhoeae isolates was determined by paper acidometric test and nitrocefin discs. The porB1A and porB1B genes of 315 non-penicillinase-producting N. gonorrhoeae (non-PPNG strains were amplified by PCR for sequencing to determine serotypes and site mutations. A duplex PCR was designed to simultaneously detect both porB1A and porB1B genes. Penicillin and tetracycline resistance was assessed by an in vitro drug sensitivity test. Results Of the N. gonorrhoeae isolates, 31.1% tested positive for porB1A and 68.9% for porB1B genes. All the 98 porB1A+ isolates belonging to IA6 serotype with either no mutation at the 120 and 121 sites (88.8% or a D120G (11.2% mutation and were no resistance to both penicillin and tetracycline. Among the 217 porB1B+ isolates, 26.7%, 22.6% and 11.5% belonged to IB3, IB3/6 and IB4 serotypes, respectively. Particularly, two novel chimeric serotypes, IB3/6-IB2 and IB2-IB4-IB2, were found in 77 and 8 porB1B+ isolates. Two hundred and twelve (97.7% of the porB1B+ isolates were presented G120 and/or A121 mutations with 163 (76.9% at both sites. Interestingly, within the 77 porB1B+ isolates belonging to IB3/6-IB2 serotype, 15 were discovered to possess novel deletions at both A121 and N122 sites. All the replacement mutations at these sites in PorB1B were correlated with resistance and the deletion mutation showed the highest resistance. Conclusion N. gonorrhoeae isolates circulating in Eastern China include a sole PorB1A serotype (IA6 and five PorB1B serotypes. Multiple mutations in porB1B genes, including novel A121 and N122 deletions, are correlated with high levels of penicillin and tetracycline resistance.

Asperentin B, a New Inhibitor of the Protein Tyrosine Phosphatase 1B.

Science.gov (United States)

Wiese, Jutta; Aldemir, Hülya; Schmaljohann, Rolf; Gulder, Tobias A M; Imhoff, Johannes F

2017-06-21

In the frame of studies on secondary metabolites produced by fungi from deep-sea environments we have investigated inhibitors of enzymes playing key roles in signaling cascades of biochemical pathways relevant for the treatment of diseases. Here we report on a new inhibitor of the human protein tyrosine phosphatase 1B (PTP1B), a target in the signaling pathway of insulin. A new asperentin analog is produced by an Aspergillus sydowii strain isolated from the sediment of the deep Mediterranean Sea. Asperentin B ( 1 ) contains an additional phenolic hydroxy function at C-6 and exhibits an IC 50 value against PTP1B of 2 μM in vitro, which is six times stronger than the positive control, suramin. Interestingly, asperentin ( 2 ) did not show any inhibition of this enzymatic activity. Asperentin B ( 1 ) is discussed as possible therapeutic agents for type 2 diabetes and sleeping sickness.

Foxp1 controls mature B cell survival and the development of follicular and B-1 B cells

Science.gov (United States)

Patzelt, Thomas; Keppler, Selina J.; Gorka, Oliver; Thoene, Silvia; Wartewig, Tim; Reth, Michael; Förster, Irmgard; Lang, Roland; Buchner, Maike; Ruland, Jürgen

2018-01-01

The transcription factor Foxp1 is critical for early B cell development. Despite frequent deregulation of Foxp1 in B cell lymphoma, the physiological functions of Foxp1 in mature B cells remain unknown. Here, we used conditional gene targeting in the B cell lineage and report that Foxp1 disruption in developing and mature B cells results in reduced numbers and frequencies of follicular and B-1 B cells and in impaired antibody production upon T cell-independent immunization in vivo. Moreover, Foxp1-deficient B cells are impaired in survival even though they exhibit an increased capacity to proliferate. Transcriptional analysis identified defective expression of the prosurvival Bcl-2 family gene Bcl2l1 encoding Bcl-xl in Foxp1-deficient B cells, and we identified Foxp1 binding in the regulatory region of Bcl2l1. Transgenic overexpression of Bcl2 rescued the survival defect in Foxp1-deficient mature B cells in vivo and restored peripheral B cell numbers. Thus, our results identify Foxp1 as a physiological regulator of mature B cell survival mediated in part via the control of Bcl-xl expression and imply that this pathway might contribute to the pathogenic function of aberrant Foxp1 expression in lymphoma. PMID:29507226

Effect of Interleukin 1b on rat thymus microenvironment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M Artico

2009-12-01

Full Text Available The effect of interleukin 1b on the thymus of control and chemically sympathectomized adult and aged rats was studied with the aim of assessing the importance of adrenergic nerve fibres (ANF in the regulation of some immunological functions.The whole thymus was removed from normal, sympathectomized (with the neurotoxin 6-OH-dopamine and treated (interleukin 1b rats. Thymic slices were stained with eosin orange (for the recognition of microanatomical details of the thymic microenvironment and with Bodian’s method for staining of nerve fibres. Histofluorescence microscopy was employed for staining ANF and immunofluorescence was used for detecting NPY-like immunoreactivity. All images were submitted to quantitative morphometrical analysis and statistical analysis of data. Moreover, the amount of proteins and noradrenaline was measured on thymic homogenates. The results indicate that in normal conditions the formation of the thymic nerve plexi in the rat is complex: the majority of ANF are destroyed after chemical sympathectomy with 6-OH-dopamine and do not change after treatment with interleukin 1b; on the contrary, treatment with interleukin 1b induces substantial changes in the fresh weight of the thymus, the thymic microenvironment, thymic nerve fibers, ANF, NPY-like positive nerve fibres, and on the total amount of proteins and noradrenaline in rat thymic tissue homogenates.Immunostimulation with interleukin 1b induces substantial changes in the whole thymus, in its microenvironment and in ANF and NPY-like nerve fibres. After chemical sympathectomy, no significant immune response was evoked by interleukin 1b, since the majority of ANF was destroyed by chemical sympathectomy.

Alterações hepáticas em codornas japonesas submetidas à intoxicação prolongada por aflatoxina B1 Hepatic changes in japanese quail after long term intoxication by aflatoxin B1

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos Augusto Fernandes Oliveira

2004-02-01

Full Text Available O objetivo do presente trabalho foi estudar os efeitos da aflatoxina B1 (AFB1 sobre as vísceras (fígado, baço e moela de codornas poedeiras japonesas, em condições de exposição a baixas doses, tendo em vista que são poucos os dados de toxicidade de longa duração nesta espécie. Assim, foram constituídos 4 grupos formados, cada um, por 6 codornas de linhagem comercial, as quais receberam rações contendo AFB1 nas concentrações de 0 (controle, 25, 50 e 100mg.kg-1, durante 168 dias. As aves do grupo 100mg kg_1 apresentaram fígados com peso relativo médio menor (p The aim of the present record was to study the effects of aflatoxin B1 (AFB1 on selected viscera (liver, spleen and gizzard of laying Japanese quail under conditions of low level exposure, in view of the little information regarding the long term toxicity on this specie. Thus, four experimental groups of six commercial quails were constituted and given rations containing either 0 (controls, 25, 50 or 100mg aflatoxin B1 (AFB1/kg feed, during 168 days. When compared to controls, birds from group 100mg.kg-1 presented low relative liver weight (p < 0.05. Histological changes were observed only in the livers, and all samples from quail exposed to AFB1 revealed moderate to severe hepatic cell vacuolation with fatty change, particularly in birds from groups receiving highest levels of toxin (50 and 100mg.kg-1. Bile duct hyperplasia occurred only in the birds exposed to 100mg.kg-1 of AFB1. The results indicated that long term administration of AFB1 at levels above 50mg.kg-1 can cause significant hepatic lesions in Japanese quail.

Framing Vulnerability and Adaptation to Environmental Change in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

AJB SERVER

The launching of this African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology coincides with the highly publicized release of international assessment of climate change. The latest, on 6th April, 2007 was the 21-page summary for policy makers from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) working group ...

The effect of climate change and natural variability on wind loading values for buildings

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Steenbergen, R.D.J.M.; Koster, T.; Geurts, C.P.W.

2012-01-01

Since 2006, a number of countries developed reports on climate change following the IPCC 4th assessment reports. For the Netherlands, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) presented four new climate scenarios. Typically, climate change is described in terms of average changes, but

Data of evolutionary structure change: 1CG5B-2QU0C [Confc[Archive

Lifescience Database Archive (English)

Full Text Available 0 C 2QU0C DLHAHKLRVDPence>...0 C 2QU0C FPHFD--LSHGSence...1CG5B-2QU0C 1CG5 2QU0 B C VKLSEDQEHYIKGVWKDVD--HKQITAKALERVFVVYPW... 1CG5 B 1CG5B ence>WKDVD--HKQIT... 384 THR CA 441 2QU0 C 2QU

Using dynamical downscaling to close the gap between global change scenarios and local permafrost dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stendel, Martin; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.; Christensen, Jens H.

2007-01-01

Even though we can estimate the zonation of present-day permafrost from deep-soil temperatures obtained from global coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) by accounting for heat conduction in the frozen soil, it is impossible to explicitly resolve soil properties, vegetation......, in particular in mountainous regions. By using global climate change scenarios as driving fields, one can obtain permafrost dynamics in high temporal resolution on the order of years. For the 21st century under the IPCC SRES scenarios A2 and B2, we find an increase of mean annual ground temperature by up to 6 K...

Future potential distribution of the emerging amphibian chytrid fungus under anthropogenic climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Rödder, Dennis; Kielgast, Jos; Lötters, Stefan

2010-11-01

Anthropogenic climate change poses a major threat to global biodiversity with a potential to alter biological interactions at all spatial scales. Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates and have been subject to increasing conservation attention over the past decade. A particular concern is the pandemic emergence of the parasitic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which has been identified as the cause of extremely rapid large-scale declines and species extinctions. Experimental and observational studies have demonstrated that the host-pathogen system is strongly influenced by climatic parameters and thereby potentially affected by climate change. Herein we project a species distribution model of the pathogen onto future climatic scenarios generated by the IPCC to examine their potential implications on the pandemic. Results suggest that predicted anthropogenic climate change may reduce the geographic range of B. dendrobatidis and its potential influence on amphibian biodiversity.

Projected Changes in Kppen Climate Types in the 21st Century over China

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

SHI Ying; GAO Xue-Jie; WU Jia

2012-01-01

Future changes in the climate regimes over China as measured by the Kppen climate classification are reported in this paper. The analysis is based on a high-resolution climate change simulation conducted by a regional climate model (the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) RegCM3) driven by the global model of Center for Climate System Research (CCSR)/National Institute for Environment Studies (NIES)/Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) MIROC3.2_hires (the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. Validation of the model performances is presented first. The results show that RegCM3 reproduces the present-day distribution of the Kppen climate types well. Significant changes of the types are found in the future over China, following the simulated warming and precipitation changes. In southern China, the change is characterized by the replacement of subtropical humid (Cr) by subtropical winter-dry (Cw). A pronounced decrease of the cold climate types is found over China, e.g., tundra (Ft) over the Tibetan Plateau and sub-arctic continental (Ec) over northeast China. The changes are usually greater in the end compared with the middle of the 21st century.

Nonlinear parameter (B/A) measurements in methanol, 1-butanol and 1-octanol for different pressures and temperatures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Plantier, F.; Daridon, J.L.; Lagourette, B.

2002-01-01

Experimental determinations versus pressure of the nonlinear acoustic parameter B/A have been conducted for methanol, 1-butanol and 1-octanol in the pressure range 0-50 MPa and temperature range 303.15-373.15 K. These measurements proceed from an experimental technique based on a phase comparison method allowing to measure the change in sound speed with the pressure for an isentropic process. The value of B/A is found to decrease with increasing pressure and seems to be an increasing function of temperature. A comparison with the data determined numerically by the classical thermodynamic method has also been performed. (author)

Liver-Specific Deletion of Protein-Tyrosine Phosphatase 1B (PTP1B) Improves Metabolic Syndrome and Attenuates Diet-Induced Endoplasmic Reticulum Stress

Science.gov (United States)

Delibegovic, Mirela; Zimmer, Derek; Kauffman, Caitlin; Rak, Kimberly; Hong, Eun-Gyoung; Cho, You-Ree; Kim, Jason K.; Kahn, Barbara B.; Neel, Benjamin G.; Bence, Kendra K.

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVE—The protein tyrosine phosphatase PTP1B is a negative regulator of insulin signaling; consequently, mice deficient in PTP1B are hypersensitive to insulin. Because PTP1B−/− mice have diminished fat stores, the extent to which PTP1B directly regulates glucose homeostasis is unclear. Previously, we showed that brain-specific PTP1B−/− mice are protected against high-fat diet–induced obesity and glucose intolerance, whereas muscle-specific PTP1B−/− mice have increased insulin sensitivity independent of changes in adiposity. Here we studied the role of liver PTP1B in glucose homeostasis and lipid metabolism. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—We analyzed body mass/adiposity, insulin sensitivity, glucose tolerance, and lipid metabolism in liver-specific PTP1B−/− and PTP1Bfl/fl control mice, fed a chow or high-fat diet. RESULTS—Compared with normal littermates, liver-specific PTP1B−/− mice exhibit improved glucose homeostasis and lipid profiles, independent of changes in adiposity. Liver-specific PTP1B−/− mice have increased hepatic insulin signaling, decreased expression of gluconeogenic genes PEPCK and G-6-Pase, enhanced insulin-induced suppression of hepatic glucose production, and improved glucose tolerance. Liver-specific PTP1B−/− mice exhibit decreased triglyceride and cholesterol levels and diminished expression of lipogenic genes SREBPs, FAS, and ACC. Liver-specific PTP1B deletion also protects against high-fat diet–induced endoplasmic reticulum stress response in vivo, as evidenced by decreased phosphorylation of p38MAPK, JNK, PERK, and eIF2α and lower expression of the transcription factors C/EBP homologous protein and spliced X box-binding protein 1. CONCLUSIONS—Liver PTP1B plays an important role in glucose and lipid metabolism, independent of alterations in adiposity. Inhibition of PTP1B in peripheral tissues may be useful for the treatment of metabolic syndrome and reduction of cardiovascular risk in addition to

Climate change gains more from nuclear substitution than from conservation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, A.I.; Suppiah, S.; Duffey, R.

2005-01-01

We show the massive reduction achievable, in both emissions and climate change impact, from enhanced nuclear energy use on the forecasts of future world energy use and its associated environmental impacts. A range encompassing the major scenarios for the World's energy demand have been analysed using the latest version of the climate-modelling MAGICC/SCENGEN software (Version 4.1). We have updated and predicted the impacts of 80% substitution with CO 2 -free sources (likely predominantly nuclear) for coal-fired electricity (by 2030) and for transportation fuel (by 2040). For transportation, hydrogen produced by CO 2 -free sources would replace gasoline and diesel fuels. In this paper, to bracket the range of futures, we simply focus on two scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC), one (A1FI) that is energy-profligate and one (B2) that is energy-conserving. The results show that, interestingly, projected average global temperatures for all scenarios are fairly similar until about 2035 (a further rise beyond the 1990 average temperature of +0.75 K ± 0.1) regardless of energy usage and its sources. However, by 2050, the different IPCC scenarios diverge markedly. Understandably, A1FI is projected to have noticeably stronger effects than B2 on average global temperatures (about 0.3 K more in 2050) but the effect is much stronger over land at mid and high latitudes (up to almost 1 K more). What is most striking is that the substitution of CO 2 -free sources gives projected average temperature rises in 2050 over key land areas (North America and China) that are very similar for the two energy-use scenarios-typically 1 to 1.5 K because A1FI's additional energy is predominantly supplied by nuclear. In contrast, projected rises with the unaltered cases are markedly different being about 2.5 K for A1FI and 1.5 to 2 K for B2. The projected changes in rainfall distribution show similar patterns, especially for the expected increases in higher

118-B-1 excavation treatability test plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-07-01

The Hanford 118-B-1 Burial Ground Treatability Study has been required by milestone change request number-sign M-15-93-04, dated September 30, 1993. The change request requires that a treatability test be conducted at the 100-B Area to obtain additional engineering information for remedial design of burial grounds receiving waste from 100 Area removal actions. This treatability study has two purposes: (1) to support development of the Proposed Plan (PP) and Record of Decision (ROD), which will identify the approach to be used for burial ground remediation, and (2) to provide specific engineering information for receiving waste generated from the 100 Area removal actions. Data generated from this test also will provide critical performance and cost information necessary for remedy evaluation in the detailed analysis of alternatives during preparation of the focused feasibility study (FFS). This treatability testing supports the following 100 Area alternatives: (1) excavation and disposal, and (2) excavation, sorting, (treatment), and disposal

Climate change impacts on yields and soil carbon in dryland agriculture

Science.gov (United States)

Dryland agroecosystems could be a sizable sink for atmospheric carbon (C) due to their spatial extent and level of degradation, providing climate change mitigation. We examined productivity and soil C dynamics under two IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5; RCP 8.5), utilizing long-term experiment...

The climate crisis: An introductory guide to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Trenberth, Kevin E.

2011-06-01

Human-induced climate change, sometimes called “global warming,” has, unfortunately, become a “hot” topic, embroiled in controversy, misinformation, and claims and counterclaims. It should not be this way, because there are many scientific facts that provide solid information on which to base policy. There is a very strong observational, theoretical, and modeling base in physical science that underpins current understanding of what has happened to Earth's climate and why and what the prospects are for the future under certain assumptions. Moreover, these changes have impacts, which are apt to grow, on the environment and human society. To avoid or reduce these impacts and the economic and human effects of undesirable future climate change requires actions that are strongly opposed by those with vested interests in the status quo, some of whom have funded misinformation campaigns that have successfully confused the public and some politicians, leading to paralysis in political action. Without mitigation of climate change, one would suppose that at least society would plan sensibly for the changes already happening and projected, but such future adaptation plans are also largely in limbo. The implication is that we will suffer the consequences. All of these aspects are addressed in this informative and attractive book, which is written for a fairly general but technically informed audience. The book is strongly based upon the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and therefore has a solid scientific basis. Many figures, graphs, and maps come from the three IPCC working group reports, although the captions often do not explain the detail shown. Given that the IPCC reports totaled nearly 3000 pages, to distill the complex material down to 249 pages is no mean task, and the authors have succeeded quite well.

Plasma Cell Alloantigen 1 and IL-10 Secretion Define Two Distinct Peritoneal B1a B Cell Subsets With Opposite Functions, PC1high Cells Being Protective and PC1low Cells Harmful for the Growing Fetus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anne Schumacher

2018-05-01

Full Text Available B cells possess various immuno regulatory functions. However, research about their participation in tolerance induction toward the fetus is just emerging. Accumulating evidence supports the idea that B cells can play seemingly conflicting roles during pregnancy, either protecting or harming the fetus. Previous findings indicated the presence of two different peritoneal B cell subsets, defined by the expression of the plasma cell alloantigen 1 (PC1 and with distinct immune modulatory functions. Here, we aimed to study the participation of these two B cell subsets, on pregnancy outcome in a murine model of disturbed fetal tolerance. The frequencies and cell numbers of peritoneal and splenic CD19+IL-10+ and CD19+CD5+IL-10+PC1+ cells were assessed in virgin as well as normal pregnant (NP and abortion-prone (AP females during the course of gestation. Peritoneal PC1low or PC1high B1a B cells were sorted, analyzed for their ability to secrete IL-10 and adoptively transferred into NP or AP females. On gestation day (gd 12, the abortion rate as well as the frequencies and cell numbers of regulatory T cells, TH1 and TH17 cells were determined in spleens and decidua. In addition, mRNA expression of IL-10, TGF-β, IFN-γ, and TNF-α was analyzed in decidual tissue. Peritoneal CD19+IL-10+ and CD19+CD5+IL-10+PC1+ frequencies fluctuated during the progression of normal pregnancies while no significant changes were observed in spleen. AP females showed significantly reduced frequencies of both B cell populations and exhibited an altered peritoneal PC1high/PC1low ratio at gd10. Adoptive transfers of PC1low B1a B cells into NP females increased the abortion rate in association with a reduced splenic regulatory T/TH17 ratio. By contrast, the transfer of PC1high B1a B cells into AP females significantly diminished the fetal rejection rate and significantly reduced the numbers of splenic TH17 cells. Our results suggest that the peritoneum harbors two distinct B1a B

Future projections of insured losses in the German private building sector following the A1B climatic change scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Held, H.; Gerstengarbe, F.-W.; Hattermann, F.; Pinto, J. G.; Ulbrich, U.; Böhm, U.; Born, K.; Büchner, M.; Donat, M. G.; Kücken, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Nissen, K.; Nocke, T.; Österle, H.; Pardowitz, T.; Werner, P. C.; Burghoff, O.; Broecker, U.; Kubik, A.

2012-04-01

We present an overview of a complementary-approaches impact project dealing with the consequences of climate change for the natural hazard branch of the insurance industry in Germany. The project was conducted by four academic institutions together with the German Insurance Association (GDV) and finalized in autumn 2011. A causal chain is modeled that goes from global warming projections over regional meteorological impacts to regional economic losses for private buildings, hereby fully covering the area of Germany. This presentation will focus on wind storm related losses, although the method developed had also been applied in part to hail and flood impact losses. For the first time, the GDV supplied their collected set of insurance cases, dating back for decades, for such an impact study. These data were used to calibrate and validate event-based damage functions which in turn were driven by three different types of regional climate models to generate storm loss projections. The regional models were driven by a triplet of ECHAM5 experiments following the A1B scenario which were found representative in the recent ENSEMBLES intercomparison study. In our multi-modeling approach we used two types of regional climate models that conceptually differ at maximum: a dynamical model (CCLM) and a statistical model based on the idea of biased bootstrapping (STARS). As a third option we pursued a hybrid approach (statistical-dynamical downscaling). For the assessment of climate change impacts, the buildings' infrastructure and their economic value is kept at current values. For all three approaches, a significant increase of average storm losses and extreme event return levels in the German private building sector is found for future decades assuming an A1B-scenario. However, the three projections differ somewhat in terms of magnitude and regional differentiation. We have developed a formalism that allows us to express the combined effect of multi-source uncertainty on return

IPCC's Climate Communication

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Almlund, Pernille

reports. This paper is based on a wonder of why the IPCC’s analysis and reports are not, to a higher degree, based on social science and human science. Are these scientific perspectives with many different approaches not important to this global political awareness of climate change? Especially now when...... all the IPCC’s assessment report have concluded that climate changes are human made and recently stated that 97 % of all climate researchers agree in that conclusion. Due to the theoretical work of Michel Callon, Lascoumes and Barthe (2011) and their ANT perspective, climate change can be observed...

Climate change threatens polar bear populations: A stochastic demographic analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, C.M.; Caswell, H.; Runge, M.C.; Regehr, E.V.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, I.

2010-01-01

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in ?? in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log ??s, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log ??s ' - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic

Global outlook for wood and forests with the bioenergy demand implied by scenarios of the intergovernmental panel on climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Ronald Raunikar; Joseph Buongiorno; James A. Turner; Shushuai Zhu

2010-01-01

The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) was modified to link the forest sector to two scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and to represent the utilization of fuelwood and industrial roundwood to produce biofuels. The scenarios examined were a subset of the “story lines” prepared by the IPCC. Each scenario has projections of population and...

Thermal-induced conformational changes in the product release area drive the enzymatic activity of xylanases 10B: Crystal structure, conformational stability and functional characterization of the xylanase 10B from Thermotoga petrophila RKU-1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santos, Camila Ramos; Meza, Andreia Navarro; Hoffmam, Zaira Bruna; Silva, Junio Cota; Alvarez, Thabata Maria; Ruller, Roberto; Giesel, Guilherme Menegon; Verli, Hugo; Squina, Fabio Marcio; Prade, Rolf Alexander; Murakami, Mario Tyago

2010-01-01

Research highlights: → The hyperthermostable xylanase 10B from Thermotoga petrophila RKU-1 produces exclusively xylobiose at the optimum temperature. → Circular dichroism spectroscopy suggests a coupling effect of temperature-induced structural changes with its enzymatic behavior. → Crystallographic and molecular dynamics studies indicate that conformational changes in the product release area modulate the enzyme action mode. -- Abstract: Endo-xylanases play a key role in the depolymerization of xylan and recently, they have attracted much attention owing to their potential applications on biofuels and paper industries. In this work, we have investigated the molecular basis for the action mode of xylanases 10B at high temperatures using biochemical, biophysical and crystallographic methods. The crystal structure of xylanase 10B from hyperthermophilic bacterium Thermotoga petrophila RKU-1 (TpXyl10B) has been solved in the native state and in complex with xylobiose. The complex crystal structure showed a classical binding mode shared among other xylanases, which encompasses the -1 and -2 subsites. Interestingly, TpXyl10B displayed a temperature-dependent action mode producing xylobiose and xylotriose at 20 o C, and exclusively xylobiose at 90 o C as assessed by capillary zone electrophoresis. Moreover, circular dichroism spectroscopy suggested a coupling effect of temperature-induced structural changes with this particular enzymatic behavior. Molecular dynamics simulations supported the CD analysis suggesting that an open conformational state adopted by the catalytic loop (Trp297-Lys326) provokes significant modifications in the product release area (+1,+2 and +3 subsites), which drives the enzymatic activity to the specific release of xylobiose at high temperatures.

Thermal-induced conformational changes in the product release area drive the enzymatic activity of xylanases 10B: Crystal structure, conformational stability and functional characterization of the xylanase 10B from Thermotoga petrophila RKU-1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Santos, Camila Ramos; Meza, Andreia Navarro [Laboratorio Nacional de Biociencias (LNBio), Centro Nacional de Pesquisa em Energia e Materiais, Campinas, SP (Brazil); Hoffmam, Zaira Bruna; Silva, Junio Cota; Alvarez, Thabata Maria; Ruller, Roberto [Laboratorio Nacional de Ciencia e Tecnologia do Bioetanol (CTBE), Centro Nacional de Pesquisa em Energia e Materiais, Campinas, SP (Brazil); Giesel, Guilherme Menegon; Verli, Hugo [Centro de Biotecnologia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil); Squina, Fabio Marcio [Laboratorio Nacional de Ciencia e Tecnologia do Bioetanol (CTBE), Centro Nacional de Pesquisa em Energia e Materiais, Campinas, SP (Brazil); Prade, Rolf Alexander [Department of Microbiology and Molecular Genetics, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK (United States); Murakami, Mario Tyago, E-mail: mario.murakami@lnbio.org.br [Laboratorio Nacional de Biociencias (LNBio), Centro Nacional de Pesquisa em Energia e Materiais, Campinas, SP (Brazil)

2010-12-10

Research highlights: {yields} The hyperthermostable xylanase 10B from Thermotoga petrophila RKU-1 produces exclusively xylobiose at the optimum temperature. {yields} Circular dichroism spectroscopy suggests a coupling effect of temperature-induced structural changes with its enzymatic behavior. {yields} Crystallographic and molecular dynamics studies indicate that conformational changes in the product release area modulate the enzyme action mode. -- Abstract: Endo-xylanases play a key role in the depolymerization of xylan and recently, they have attracted much attention owing to their potential applications on biofuels and paper industries. In this work, we have investigated the molecular basis for the action mode of xylanases 10B at high temperatures using biochemical, biophysical and crystallographic methods. The crystal structure of xylanase 10B from hyperthermophilic bacterium Thermotoga petrophila RKU-1 (TpXyl10B) has been solved in the native state and in complex with xylobiose. The complex crystal structure showed a classical binding mode shared among other xylanases, which encompasses the -1 and -2 subsites. Interestingly, TpXyl10B displayed a temperature-dependent action mode producing xylobiose and xylotriose at 20 {sup o}C, and exclusively xylobiose at 90 {sup o}C as assessed by capillary zone electrophoresis. Moreover, circular dichroism spectroscopy suggested a coupling effect of temperature-induced structural changes with this particular enzymatic behavior. Molecular dynamics simulations supported the CD analysis suggesting that an open conformational state adopted by the catalytic loop (Trp297-Lys326) provokes significant modifications in the product release area (+1,+2 and +3 subsites), which drives the enzymatic activity to the specific release of xylobiose at high temperatures.

Infectious genotype 1a, 1b, 2a, 2b, 3a, 5a, 6a and 7a hepatitis C virus lacking the hypervariable region 1 (HVR1)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

2014-01-01

.sub.1389c,A1590G (6a/2a) constructs for the deletion of Hypervariable Region 1 (HVR1) to construct viable, JFH 1 (genotype 2a) based, genomes. The present inventors serially passaged the viruses in cell culture obtaining relatively high HCV RNA titers and infectivity titers. Sequence analysis...... of the viruses identified mutations adapting H77/JFH 1.sub.T27OOC,A4O8OT,.DELTA.HVR1 (1a/2a), J8/JFH .sub.1.DELTA.HVR1 (2b/2a), S52/JFH 1.sub.T2718G,T716OC,.DELTA.HVR1 (3a/2a) and J4/JFH 1.sub.T2996C,A4827T,.DELTA.HVR1 (1b/2a) to the HVR1 deletion....

Commercial exchanges in B2B Dyads. A new model of decision-making in fast changing markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Moreno Bragado, Elisa

2003-01-01

This dissertation presents a Model of Commercial Exchanges in B2B Dyads. This model explains how buying and selling decisions are made in industrial markets that are subject to continuous change, particularly the market for telecommunication products and services.Buying and selling decision-making

The Atlas of Climate Change. Based on SEAP-CMIP5. Super-ensemble projection and attribution (SEAP) of climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dong, Wenjie; Guo, Yan [Beijing Normal Univ. (China). Normal Univ. College of Global Change and Earth System Science; Ren, Fumin [China Meterological Administration, Beijing (China). National Climate Center; Huang, Jianbin [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China). Center for Earth System Science

2013-02-01

Outputs from the latest generation of earth system model from world class model development groups for IPCC AR5. Describes quantitatively state historical responsibility for global warming. Demonstrates how the Earth's climate system will change from today up to 2100. Describes how much climate change we may avoid if we take action according to Cancun Pledge ''The Atlas of Climate Change-Based on SEAP-CMIP5'' is intended to satisfy readers' curiosity: how will our climate system change over the next 100 years? It is the first showcase for the state-of -the-art earth system models that released their CMIP5 simulations for the IPCC AR5.The atlas focuses on both the past climate system change from 1850 and the projection of the future climate system change to 2100 using the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios based on climate models. This provides the research and application community interested in the impact of climate change on fields such as agriculture, ecosystem, environment,water resources, energy, health, economy, risk governance and international negotiation, etc. with the newest climate change projection information. Additionally, the atlas will show the historical responsibility of the developed/developing countries and possible contributions to the mitigation of climate change according to their pledge of GHG emission reduction after the Cancun Agreement as an extension numerical experiment to CMIP5 with NCAR's CESM1.0. The authors will update this atlas after future releases of CMIP5 model outputs and update the figures in the second edition of the atlas in 2012-2013.

Integrated ecosystem services assessment: Valuation of changes due to sea level rise in Galveston Bay, Texas, USA.

Science.gov (United States)

Yoskowitz, David; Carollo, Cristina; Pollack, Jennifer Beseres; Santos, Carlota; Welder, Kathleen

2017-03-01

The goal of the present study was to identify the potential changes in ecosystem service values provided by wetlands in Galveston Bay, Texas, USA, under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B max (0.69 m) sea level rise scenario. Built exclusively upon the output produced during the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model 6 (SLAMM 6) exercise for the Galveston Bay region, this study showed that fresh marsh and salt marsh present a steady decline from 2009 (initial condition) to 2100. Fresh marsh was projected to undergo the biggest changes, with the loss of approximately 21% of its extent between 2009 and 2100 under the A1B max scenario. The percentages of change for salt marsh were less prominent at approximately 12%. This trend was also shown in the values of selected ecosystem services (disturbance regulation, waste regulation, recreation, and aesthetics) provided by these habitats. An ordinary least squares regression was used to calculate the monetary value of the selected ecosystem services provided by salt marsh and fresh marsh in 2009, and in 2050 and 2100 under the A1B max scenario. The value of the selected services showed potential monetary losses in excess of US$40 million annually in 2100, compared to 2009 for fresh marsh and more than $11 million for salt marsh. The estimates provided here are only small portions of what can be lost due to the decrease in habitat extent, and they highlight the need for protecting not only built infrastructure but also natural resources from sea level rise. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:431-443. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Uncertainties and climatic change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Gier, A.M.; Opschoor, J.B.; Van de Donk, W.B.H.J.; Hooimeijer, P.; Jepma, J.; Lelieveld, J.; Oerlemans, J.; Petersen, A.

2008-01-01

Which processes in the climate system are misunderstood? How are scientists dealing with uncertainty about climate change? What will be done with the conclusions of the recently published synthesis report of the IPCC? These and other questions were answered during the meeting 'Uncertainties and climate change' that was held on Monday 26 November 2007 at the KNAW in Amsterdam. This report is a compilation of all the presentations and provides some conclusions resulting from the discussions during this meeting. [mk] [nl

PERSPECTIVE: Climate change: seeking balance in media reports

Science.gov (United States)

Huntingford, Chris; Fowler, David

2008-06-01

Boykoff and Mansfield (2008), in a recent paper in this journal, provide a detailed analysis of the representation of climate change in the UK tabloid newspapers. They conclude that the representation of this issue in these papers 'diverged from the scientific consensus that humans contribute to climate change'. That is, portrayal of climate change in tabloid newspapers contradicts the conclusions of the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment (IPCC 2007). Is it healthy to have the scientific consensus challenged so frequently? But should we worry about systematic misrepresentation of scientific consensus? We believe the answer to both of these questions is yes. To present regular updates on climate change issues in the popular press is important because the changes in behaviour needed to achieve substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions require a broad understanding of the basic facts. However, if the majority of readers receive misleading information, it will be difficult to achieve the level of public understanding necessary to make such reductions needed to avoid dangerous climate change (Schellnhuber et al 2006 and references therein). Boykoff and Mansfield (2008) identify a gulf in presentation of the scientific facts and their interpretation on the subject of 'global warming' in tabloid newspapers, when compared to the scientific consensus. What is really sobering is the huge circulation of these papers (see table 1 of Boykoff and Mansfield—many millions per day); even the most important 'landmark' research papers very rarely achieve five hundred plus citations. We find it heartening, therefore, that the area of climate change research does at least have the umbrella of the IPCC. This provides an additional channel through which current research associated with the effects of burning fossil fuels can be presented, and in our personal experience at least, we have found the non-tabloid UK newspapers to report accurately

Characterization of hERG1a and hERG1b potassium channels-a possible role for hERG1b in the I (Kr) current

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Anders Peter; Olesen, Søren-Peter; Grunnet, Morten

2008-01-01

I (Kr) is the fast component of the delayed rectifier potassium currents responsible for the repolarization of the cardiac muscle. The molecular correlate underlying the I (Kr) current has been identified as the hERG1 channel. Recently, two splice variants of the hERG1 alpha-subunit, hERG1a and hERG......1b, have been shown to be co-expressed in human cardiomyocytes. In this paper, we present the electrophysiological characterization of hERG1a, hERG1b, and co-expressed hERG1a/b channels in a mammalian expression system using the whole-cell patch clamp technique. We also quantified the messenger RNA...... (mRNA) levels of hERG1a and hERG1b in human cardiac tissue, and based on the expressed ratios, we evaluated the resulting currents in Xenopus laevis oocytes. Compared to hERG1a channels, activation was faster for both hERG1b and hERG1a/b channels. The deactivation kinetics was greatly accelerated...