WorldWideScience

Sample records for change integrated assessment

  1. Integrated assessment of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgan, M.G.

    1994-01-01

    Many researchers are working on all the separate parts of the climate problem. The objective of integrated assessment is to put the results from this work together in order to look carefully at the big picture so as to: (1) keep a proper sense of perspective about the problem, since climate change will occur in the presence of many other natural and human changes; (2) develop the understanding necessary to support informed decision making by many different key public and private actors around the world; and (3) assure that the type and mix of climate-related research that is undertaken will be as useful as possible to decisions makers in both the near and long term. This paper outlines a set of design guidelines for formulating integrated assessment programs and projects and then outlines some of the current problems and opportunities. Selected points are illustrated by drawing on results from the integrated assessment research now in progress at Carnegie Mellon University

  2. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  3. Integrated assessment models of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E.A.; Fisher-Vanden, K.

    1997-01-01

    The authors review recent work in the integrated assessment modeling of global climate change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to combine knowledge from multiple disciplines in formal integrated representations; inform policy-making, structure knowledge, and prioritize key uncertainties; and advance knowledge of broad system linkages and feedbacks, particularly between socio-economic and bio-physical processes. They may combine simplified representations of the socio-economic determinants of greenhouse gas emissions, the atmosphere and oceans, impacts on human activities and ecosystems, and potential policies and responses. The authors summarize current projects, grouping them according to whether they emphasize the dynamics of emissions control and optimal policy-making, uncertainty, or spatial detail. They review the few significant insights that have been claimed from work to date and identify important challenges for integrated assessment modeling in its relationships to disciplinary knowledge and to broader assessment seeking to inform policy- and decision-making. 192 refs., 2 figs

  4. Integrated Climate Change Impacts Assessment in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Meyer, R.; Anderson, M.; Bromirski, P. D.

    2014-12-01

    This paper summarizes lessons learned from an ongoing series of climate change assessments for California, conducted by the scientific community and State and local agencies. A series of three Assessments have considered vulnerability and adaptation issues for both managed and natural systems. California's vulnerability is many faceted, arising because of an exceptionally drought prone climate, open coast and large estuary exposure to sea level rise, sensitive ecosystems and complex human footprint and economy. Key elements of the assessments have been a common set of climate and sea-level rise scenarios, based upon IPCC GCM simulations. Regionalized and localized output from GCM projections was provided to research teams investigating water supply, agriculture, coastal resources, ecosystem services, forestry, public health, and energy demand and hydropower generation. The assessment results are helping to investigate the broad range of uncertainty that is inherent in climate projections, and users are becoming better equipped to process an envelope of potential climate and impacts. Some projections suggest that without changes in California's present fresh-water delivery system, serious water shortages would take place, but that technical solutions are possible. Under a warmer climate, wildfire vulnerability is heightened markedly in some areas--estimated increases in burned area by the end of the 21st Century exceed 100% of the historical area burned in much of the forested areas of Northern California Along California coast and estuaries, projected rise in mean sea level will accelerate flooding occurrences, prompting the need for better education and preparedness. Many policymakers and agency personnel in California are factoring in results from the assessments and recognize the need for a sustained assessment process. An ongoing challenge, of course, is to achieve more engagement with a broader community of decision makers, and notably with the private sector.

  5. Integrated assessment models of climate change. An incomplete overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowlatabadi, H.

    1995-01-01

    Integrated assessment is a trendy phrase that has recently entered the vocabulary of folks in Washington, DC and elsewhere. The novelty of the term in policy analysis and policy making circles belies the longevity of this approach in the sciences and past attempts at their application to policy issues. This paper is an attempt at providing an overview of integrated assessment with a special focus on policy motivated integrated assessments of climate change. The first section provides an introduction to integrated assessments in general, followed by a discussion of the bounds to the climate change issue. The next section is devoted to a taxonomy of the policy motivated models. Then the integrated assessment effort at Carnegie Mellon is described briefly. A perspective on the challenges ahead in successful representation of natural and social dynamics in integrated assessments of global climate change is presented in the final section. (Author)

  6. Practice and progress in integrated assessments of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toth, F.L.

    1995-01-01

    This paper is intended to provide an overview of the state of the art integrated socioeconomic-biophysical assessments of climate change as presented at the IIASA workshop in October 1993. The paper seeks to tally the major improvements facilitated by integrated assessments in understanding the global warming problem and the crucial unresolved problems they currently face. The basic conclusion is that, as a result of a healthy diversity in practice, integrated assessments show significant progress in structuring the economic issues of climate change and providing the first broad insights into policy options. But, as some of the simple and traditional cases seem to be solved, more complex and difficult contingencies come to the fore. This suggests a long way to go to develop skills that will be required to address the numerous open issues. (author)

  7. Integrated assessment of climate change with reductions of methane emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amstel, van A.R.

    2005-01-01

    We have been living in the anthropocene era since about 1950, and evidence of human influence on the natural ecosystems and climate is mounting. Reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are needed to reduce the effects of climate change in the future. In an integrated assessment with the IMAGE model

  8. Distributional aspects of emissions in climate change integrated assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cantore, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    The recent failure of Copenhagen negotiations shows that concrete actions are needed to create the conditions for a consensus over global emission reduction policies. A wide coalition of countries in international climate change agreements could be facilitated by the perceived fairness of rich and poor countries of the abatement sharing at international level. In this paper I use two popular climate change integrated assessment models to investigate the path and decompose components and sources of future inequality in the emissions distribution. Results prove to be consistent with previous empirical studies and robust to model comparison and show that gaps in GDP across world regions will still play a crucial role in explaining different countries contributions to global warming. - Research highlights: → I implement a scenario analysis with two global climate change models. → I analyse inequality in the distribution of emissions. → I decompose emissions inequality components. → I find that GDP per capita is the main Kaya identity source of emissions inequality. → Current rich countries will mostly remain responsible for emissions inequality.

  9. Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2013-04-01

    showed some unexpected results, where climate models predicting the largest increase in net precipitation did not result in the largest increase in groundwater heads. This was found to be the result of different initial conditions (1990 - 2010) for the various climate models. In some areas a combination of a high initial groundwater head and an increase in precipitation towards 2021 - 2050 resulted in a groundwater head raise that reached the drainage or the surface water system. This will increase the exchange from the groundwater to the surface water system, but reduce the raise in groundwater heads. An alternative climate model, with a lower initial head can thus predict a higher increase in the groundwater head, although the increase in precipitation is lower. This illustrates an extra dimension in the uncertainty assessment, namely the climate models capability of simulating the current climatic conditions in a way that can reproduce the observed hydrological response. Højberg, AL, Troldborg, L, Stisen, S, et al. (2012) Stakeholder driven update and improvement of a national water resources model - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815212002423 Seaby, LP, Refsgaard, JC, Sonnenborg, TO, et al. (2012) Assessment of robustness and significance of climate change signals for an ensemble of distribution-based scaled climate projections (submitted) Journal of Hydrology Stisen, S, Højberg, AL, Troldborg, L et al., (2012): On the importance of appropriate rain-gauge catch correction for hydrological modelling at mid to high latitudes - http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/16/4157/2012/

  10. Transdisciplinary knowledge integration : cases from integrated assessment and vulnerability assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hinkel, J.

    2008-01-01

    Keywords: climate change, integrated assessment, knowledge integration, transdisciplinary research, vulnerability, vulnerability assessment.
    This thesis explores how transdisciplinary knowledge integration can be facilitated in the context of integrated assessments and vulnerability

  11. RECOVERY ACT - Methods for Decision under Technological Change Uncertainty and Risk Assessment for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Webster, Mort D. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Energy and Mineral Engineering

    2015-11-30

    This report presents the final outcomes and products of the project as performed both at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and subsequently at Pennsylvania State University. The research project can be divided into three main components: methodology development for decision-making under uncertainty, improving the resolution of the electricity sector to improve integrated assessment, and application of these methods to integrated assessment.

  12. RECOVERY ACT - Methods for Decision under Technological Change Uncertainty and Risk Assessment for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Webster, Mort David [MIT

    2015-03-10

    This report presents the final outcomes and products of the project as performed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The research project consists of three main components: methodology development for decision-making under uncertainty, improving the resolution of the electricity sector to improve integrated assessment, and application of these methods to integrated assessment. Results in each area is described in the report.

  13. Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Bindi, M.; Webber, Heidi; Trnka, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Olesen, J.E.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Janssen, S.J.C.; Rivington, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J.R.; Stewart, D.; Verhagen, J.; Gaiser, T.; Palosuo, T.; Tao, F.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P.P.; Bartosová, L.; Asseng, S.

    2015-01-01

    The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess

  14. Challenges and Opportunities for Integrating Social Science Perspectives into Climate and Global Change Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, E. K.; Li, J.; Zycherman, A.

    2017-12-01

    Integration of social science into climate and global change assessments is fundamental for improving understanding of the drivers, impacts and vulnerability of climate change, and the social, cultural and behavioral challenges related to climate change responses. This requires disciplinary and interdisciplinary knowledge as well as integrational and translational tools for linking this knowledge with the natural and physical sciences. The USGCRP's Social Science Coordinating Committee (SSCC) is tasked with this challenge and is working to integrate relevant social, economic and behavioral knowledge into processes like sustained assessments. This presentation will discuss outcomes from a recent SSCC workshop, "Social Science Perspectives on Climate Change" and their applications to sustained assessments. The workshop brought academic social scientists from four disciplines - anthropology, sociology, geography and archaeology - together with federal scientists and program managers to discuss three major research areas relevant to the USGCRP and climate assessments: (1) innovative tools, methods, and analyses to clarify the interactions of human and natural systems under climate change, (2) understanding of factors contributing to differences in social vulnerability between and within communities under climate change, and (3) social science perspectives on drivers of global climate change. These disciplines, collectively, emphasize the need to consider socio-cultural, political, economic, geographic, and historic factors, and their dynamic interactions, to understand climate change drivers, social vulnerability, and mitigation and adaptation responses. They also highlight the importance of mixed quantitative and qualitative methods to explain impacts, vulnerability, and responses at different time and spatial scales. This presentation will focus on major contributions of the social sciences to climate and global change research. We will discuss future directions for

  15. Scientific Integrity and Consensus in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, K.

    2017-12-01

    Scientific integrity is the hallmark of any assessment and is a paramount consideration in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment process. Procedures are in place for rigorous scientific review and to quantify confidence levels and uncertainty in the communication of key findings. However, the IPCC is unique in that its reports are formally accepted by governments through consensus agreement. This presentation will present the unique requirements of the IPCC intergovernmental assessment and discuss the advantages and challenges of its approach.

  16. Integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change and options for adaptation in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kramer, K.; Kuikman, P.J.; Veraart, J.A.; Van Walsum, P.E.V.; Westein, E.; Verhagen, A.; Daan, N.; Van Ierland, E.C.; Szoenyi, J.; De Groot, R.S.; Van Vliet, A.; Martens, P.; Amelung, B.; Huynen, M.

    2002-01-01

    In recent decades it has become increasingly clear that the global climate is warming and that regional climates are changing. The changes include alterations in rainfall pattern and intensities, sea level, and the frequencies of extreme weather events. Climate changes will not just have global effects, they will also occur regionally. The consequences will be felt and dealt with in our own region. In addition to studies at the European level, a study entitled 'An integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change and adaptation options in the Netherlands' was carried out

  17. An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

    2016-11-11

    Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

  18. Second California Assessment: Integrated climate change impacts assessment of natural and managed systems. Guest editorial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, G.; Cayan, D.R.; Moser, S.; Hanemann, M.; Jones, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    Since 2006 the scientific community in California, in cooperation with resource managers, has been conducting periodic statewide studies about the potential impacts of climate change on natural and managed systems. This Special Issue is a compilation of revised papers that originate from the most recent assessment that concluded in 2009. As with the 2006 studies that influenced the passage of California's landmark Global Warming Solutions Act (AB32), these papers have informed policy formulation at the state level, helping bring climate adaptation as a complementary measure to mitigation. We provide here a brief introduction to the papers included in this Special Issue focusing on how they are coordinated and support each other. We describe the common set of downscaled climate and sea-level rise scenarios used in this assessment that came from six different global climate models (GCMs) run under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: B1 (low emissions) and A2 (a medium-high emissions). Recommendations for future state assessments, some of which are being implemented in an on-going new assessment that will be completed in 2012, are offered. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  19. Integrating sustainable development into the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Najam, Adil; Rahman, Atiq A.; Huq, Saleemul; Sokona, Youba

    2003-01-01

    This paper reviews how sustainable development was treated in prior assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and presents proposals on how it might be integrated into the forthcoming Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). There has been a steady, but slow, increase in the exposure and treatment of sustainable development in each subsequent IPCC assessment. However, much more remains to be done if the mandate provided in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is to be met. The paper argues that the AR4 can take three practical steps in making the integration more complete. First, at the conceptual level, equity concerns should be made a more pervasive, even central, focus of the AR4. Second, at the analytical level, the examination of alternative development pathways begun during the TAR process needs to be continued and expanded. Third, at the operational level, the AR4 should deal with sustainable development in all its chapters rather than relegating it to a peripheral few, should broaden the base of expertise reflected in its panels of authors and reviewers, and should commission a companion special report on climate change and sustainable development

  20. Integrated trend assessment of ecosystem changes in the Limfjord (Denmark): evidence of a recent regime shift?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tomczak, Maciej Tomasz; Dinesen, Grete E.; Hoffmann, Erik

    2012-01-01

    An integrated ecosystem assessment was carried out for the Limfjord over the period from 1984 to 2008 to describe changes in ecosystem structure and potentially important drivers. The Limfjord is an eutrophic transitional Danish fjord system with the main inflow from the North Sea in the west and...... further showed the regime shift to be driven by a combination of anthropogenic pressures and possible interplay with climatic disturbance......An integrated ecosystem assessment was carried out for the Limfjord over the period from 1984 to 2008 to describe changes in ecosystem structure and potentially important drivers. The Limfjord is an eutrophic transitional Danish fjord system with the main inflow from the North Sea in the west......), jellyfish, common shore crab, starfish and blue mussels. We interpret this change as a regime shift that showed a similar temporal pattern to regime shifts identified in adjacent seas. The observed changes in trophic interactions and food web reorganisation suggested a non-linear regime shift. The analyses...

  1. An integrated assessment of climate change impacts for Athens- relevance to stakeholders and policy makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannakopoulos, C.; Hatzaki, M.; Kostopoulou, E.; Varotsos, K.

    2010-09-01

    Analysing climate change and its impact needs a production of relevant elements for policy making that can be very different from the parameters considered by climate experts. In the framework of EU project CIRCE, a more realistic approach to match stakeholders and policy-makers demands is attempted. For this reason, within CIRCE selected case studies have been chosen that will provide assessments that can be integrated in practical decision making. In this work, an integrated assessment of climate change impacts on several sectors for the urban site of Athens in Greece is presented. The Athens urban case study has been chosen since it provides excellent opportunities for using an integrated approach across multiple temporal and spatial scales and sectors. In the spatial dimension, work extends from the inner city boundaries to the surrounding mountains and forests. In the temporal dimension, research ranges from the current observed time period (using available meteorological and sector data) to future time periods using data from several climate change projections. In addition, a multi-sector approach to climate change impacts is adopted. Impacts sectors covered range from direct climate impacts on natural ecosystems (such as flash floods, air pollution and forest fire risk) to indirect impacts resulting from combined climate-social-economic linkages (such as energy demand, tourism and health). Discussion of impact sector risks and adaptation measures are also exploited. Case-study work on impact sector risk to climate change is of particular interest to relevant policy makers and stakeholders, communication with who is ensured through a series of briefing notes and information sheets and through regional workshops.

  2. An integrated assessment of climate change, air pollution, and energy security policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bollen, Johannes; Hers, Sebastiaan; Van der Zwaan, Bob

    2010-01-01

    This article presents an integrated assessment of climate change, air pollution, and energy security policy. Basis of our analysis is the MERGE model, designed to study the interaction between the global economy, energy use, and the impacts of climate change. For our purposes we expanded MERGE with expressions that quantify damages incurred to regional economies as a result of air pollution and lack of energy security. One of the main findings of our cost-benefit analysis is that energy security policy alone does not decrease the use of oil: global oil consumption is only delayed by several decades and oil reserves are still practically depleted before the end of the 21st century. If, on the other hand, energy security policy is integrated with optimal climate change and air pollution policy, the world's oil reserves will not be depleted, at least not before our modeling horizon well into the 22nd century: total cumulative demand for oil decreases by about 24%. More generally, we demonstrate that there are multiple other benefits of combining climate change, air pollution, and energy security policies and exploiting the possible synergies between them. These benefits can be large: for Europe the achievable CO 2 emission abatement and oil consumption reduction levels are significantly deeper for integrated policy than when a strategy is adopted in which one of the three policies is omitted. Integrated optimal energy policy can reduce the number of premature deaths from air pollution by about 14,000 annually in Europe and over 3 million per year globally, by lowering the chronic exposure to ambient particulate matter. Only the optimal strategy combining the three types of energy policy can constrain the global average atmospheric temperature increase to a limit of 3 C with respect to the pre-industrial level. (author)

  3. Coupling integrated assessment and earth system models: concepts and an application to land use change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, B. C.; Lawrence, P.; Ren, X.

    2016-12-01

    Collaboration between the integrated assessment modeling (IAM) and earth system modeling (ESM) communities is increasing, driven by a growing interest in research questions that require analysis integrating both social and natural science components. This collaboration often takes the form of integrating their respective models. There are a number of approaches available to implement this integration, ranging from one-way linkages to full two-way coupling, as well as approaches that retain a single modeling framework but improve the representation of processes from the other framework. We discuss the pros and cons of these different approaches and the conditions under which a two-way coupling of IAMs and ESMs would be favored over a one-way linkage. We propose a criterion that is necessary and sufficient to motivate two-way coupling: A human process must have an effect on an earth system process that is large enough to cause a change in the original human process that is substantial compared to other uncertainties in the problem being investigated. We then illustrate a test of this criterion for land use-climate interactions based on work using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and land use scenarios from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), in which we find that the land use effect on regional climate is unlikely to meet the criterion. We then show an example of implementing a one-way linkage of land use and agriculture between an IAM, the integrated Population-Economy-Technology-Science (iPETS) model, and CESM that produces fully consistent outcomes between iPETS and the CESM land surface model. We use the linked system to model the influence of climate change on crop yields, agricultural land use, crop prices and food consumption under two alternative future climate scenarios. This application demonstrates the ability to link an IAM to a global land surface and climate model in a computationally efficient manner.

  4. Integrated Assessment of Climate Change, Land-Use Changes, and Regional Carbon Dynamics in United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, J. E.; Sleeter, B. M.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    The fact that climate change is likely to accelerate throughout this century means that climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture will need to adapt increasingly to climate change. This fact also means that understanding the potential for agricultural adaptation, and how it could come about, is important for ongoing technology investments in the public and private sectors, for infrastructure investments, and for the various policies that address agriculture directly or indirectly. This paper is an interdisciplinary study by collaborating with climate scientist, agronomists, economists, and ecologists. We first use statistical models to estimate impacts of climate change on major crop yields (wheat, corn, soybeans, sorghum, and cotton) and predict changes in crop yields under future climate condition using downscaled climate projections from CMIP5. Then, we feed the predicted yield changes to a partial equilibrium economic model (FASOM-GHG) to evaluate economic and environmental outcomes including changes in land uses (i.e., cropland, pastureland, forest land, urban land and land for conservation) in United States. Finally, we use outputs from FASOM-GHG as inputs for the ST-SIM ecological model to simulate future carbon dynamics through changes in land use under future climate conditions and discuss the rate of adaptation through land-use changes. Findings in this paper have several merits compared to previous findings in the literature. First, we add economic components to the carbon calculation. It is important to include socio-economic conditions when calculating carbon emission and/or carbon sequestration because human activities are the major contribution to atmosphere GHG emissions. Second, we use the most recent downscaled climate projections from CMIP5 to capture uncertainties from climate model projections. Instead of using all GCMs, we select five GCMs to represent the ensemble. Third, we use a bottom-up approach because we start from micro-level data

  5. Integrated regional assessment of global climatic change. Lessons from the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, Stewart J.

    1996-01-01

    This paper outlines the potential role integrated regional assessments of global climatic change scenarios could play in building better links between science and related policy concerns. The concept is illustrated through description of an ongoing case study from Canada-the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS). As part of the Government of Canada's Green Plan, the Global Warming Science Program includes a study of regional impacts of global warming scenarios in the Mackenzie Basin, located in northwestern Canada. The MBIS is a six-year program focussing on potential climate-induced changes in the land and water resource base, and the implications of four scenarios of global climatic change on land use and economic policies in this region. These policy issues include interjurisdictional water management, sustainability of native lifestyles, economic development opportunities (agriculture, forestry, tourism, etc.), sustainability of ecosystems and infrastructure maintenance. MBIS is due to be completed in 1997. MBIS represents an attempt to address regional impacts by incorporating a 'family of integrators' into the study framework, and by directly involving stakeholders in planning and research activities. The experience in organizing and carrying out this project may provide some lessons for others interested in organizing regional or country studies

  6. How to account for irreversibility in integrated assessment of climate change?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ha Duong, M.

    1998-04-01

    How to account for irreversibility in integrated assessment of climate change? This Ph. D. thesis in Economics balances discounting, technical progress and the inertia of existing capital stock against uncertainty and the inertia of socio-economic systems to examine the issue of near term limitations of greenhouse gases emissions. After a general overview in chapter 2, and a more historical presentation of the debates in chapter 3, chapter 4 proceeds to review a large number of integrated assessment models. Chapter 5 introduces a Model on the Dynamics of Inertia and Adaptability of energy systems: DIAM, used to discuss how much previous studies might have overestimated the long term costs of CO 2 limitations and underestimated adjustment costs. It shows that, given a target date for atmospheric CO 2 concentration stabilisation, a higher inertia implies a lower optimal concentration trajectory. In a sequential decision framework, chapter 6 shows that current uncertainties about which CO 2 concentration ceiling would not present dangerous interference with the climate system justifies precautionary action. Finally, chapter 7 uses the irreversibility effect theory to define formally situations of decision under controversy and compare the irreversibility of CO 2 accumulation with the irreversibility of investments needed to moderate it. An option value for greenhouse gases emissions limitations is computed. (author)

  7. Towards an integrated economic assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotze-Campen, H.; Piontek, F.; Stevanovic, M.; Popp, A.; Bauer, N.; Dietrich, J.; Mueller, C.; Schmitz, C.

    2012-12-01

    For a detailed understanding of the effects of climate change on global agricultural production systems, it is essential to consider the variability of climate change patterns as projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs), their bio-physical impact on crops and the response in land-use patterns and markets. So far, approaches that account for the interaction of bio-physical and economic impacts are largely lacking. We present an integrative analysis by using a soft-coupled system of a biophysical impact model (LPJmL, Bondeau et al. 2007), an economically driven land use model (MAgPIE, Lotze-Campen et al. 2008) and an integrated assessment model (ReMIND-R, Leimbach et al. 2010) to study climate change impacts and economic damages in the agricultural sector. First, the dynamic global vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL is used to derive climate change impacts on crop yields for wheat, maize, soy, rice and other major crops. A range of different climate projections is used, taken from the dataset provided by the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP, www.isi-mip.org), which bias-corrected the latest CMIP5 climate data (Taylor et al. 2011). Crop yield impacts cover scenarios with and without CO2 fertilization as well as different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and different GCMs. With increasing temperature towards the end of the century yields generally decrease in tropical and subtropical regions, while they tend to benefit in higher latitudes. LPJmL results have been compared to other global crop models in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP, www.agmip.org). Second, changes in crop yields are analysed with the spatially explicit agro-economic model MAgPIE, which covers their interaction with economic development and changes in food demand. Changes in prices as well as welfare changes of producer and consumer surplus are taken as economic indicators. Due to climate-change related reductions in

  8. A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of water alterations under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Molina, Jose Luis; Pulido Velazquez, Manuel; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2017-04-01

    Understanding the co-evolution and interrelations between natural and human pressures on water systems is required to ensure a sustainable management of resources under uncertain climate change conditions. To pursue multi-disciplinary research is therefore necessary to consider the multiplicity of stressors affecting water resources, take into account alternative perspectives (i.e. social, economic and environmental objective and priorities) and deal with uncertainty which characterize climate change scenarios. However, approaches commonly adopted in water quality assessment are predominantly mono-disciplinary, single-stressors oriented and apply concepts and models specific of different academic disciplines (e.g. physics, hydrology, ecology, sociology, economy) which, in fact, seldom shed their conceptual blinders failing to provide truly integrated results. In this context, the paper discusses the benefits and limits of adopting a multi-disciplinary approach where different knowledge domains collaborate and quantitative and qualitative information, coming from multiple conceptual and model-based research, are integrated in a harmonic manner. Specifically, Bayesian Networks are used as meta-modelling tool for structuring and combining the probabilistic information available in existing hydrological models, climate change and land use projections, historical observations and expert opinion. The developed network allows to perform a stochastic multi-risk assessment considering the interlacing between climate (i.e. irregularities in water regime) and land use changes (i.e. agriculture, urbanization) and their cascading impacts on water quality parameters (i.e. nutrients loadings). Main objective of the model is the development of multi-risk scenarios to assess and communicate the probability of not meeting a "Good chemical water status" over future timeframe taking into account projected climatic and not climatic conditions. The outcomes are finally used to identify

  9. A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet

    2013-04-01

    Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change

  10. Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ewert, F.; Rötter, R. P.; Bindi, M.; Weber, H.; Trnka, Miroslav; Kersebaum, K. C.; Olesen, J. E.; van Ittersum, M. K.; Janssen, S.; Rivingtom, M.; Semenov, M. A.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J. R.; Stewart, D.; Vegahen, J.; Gaiser, T.; Palouso, T.; Tao, F.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P. P.; Bartošová, Lenka; Asseng, S.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 72, oct (2015), s. 287-303 ISSN 1364-8152 R&D Projects: GA MZe QJ1310123; GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : uncertainty * scaling * integrated assessment * risk assessment * adaptation * crop models Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 4.207, year: 2015

  11. Accounting for the risk of extreme outcomes in an integrated assessment of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerst, Michael D.; Howarth, Richard B.; Borsuk, Mark E.

    2010-01-01

    The potential for climate catastrophes, represented by 'fat-tailed' distributions on consequences, has attracted much attention recently. To date, however, most integrated assessment models have either been largely deterministic or deterministic with ex-post sensitivity analysis. The conclusions of such analyses are likely to differ from those employing models that accurately characterize society's joint preferences concerning time and risk, especially when distributions are fat-tailed. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model adapted from Nordhaus's DICE model, we show that failing to accurately account for risk can lead to substantial underestimation of the net benefits of greenhouse gas abatement. A robust finding of our analysis is that a lenient 'policy ramp' emissions reduction strategy is preferable over a more aggressive strategy-such as that advocated by the Stern Review-only if the model does not account for uncertainty about the climate system, the carbon cycle and economic damages, and specifies a consumption discount rate that is counterfactually higher than the historical global weighted average cost of capital of 4.0%. In the debate over uncertainty and time discounting, our results imply that what matters most in climate change assessment is the inclusion and particular specification of uncertainty rather than the precise choice of discount rate.

  12. A simple integrated assessment approach to global change simulation and evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogutu, Keroboto; D'Andrea, Fabio; Ghil, Michael

    2016-04-01

    We formulate and study the Coupled Climate-Economy-Biosphere (CoCEB) model, which constitutes the basis of our idealized integrated assessment approach to simulating and evaluating global change. CoCEB is composed of a physical climate module, based on Earth's energy balance, and an economy module that uses endogenous economic growth with physical and human capital accumulation. A biosphere model is likewise under study and will be coupled to the existing two modules. We concentrate on the interactions between the two subsystems: the effect of climate on the economy, via damage functions, and the effect of the economy on climate, via a control of the greenhouse gas emissions. Simple functional forms of the relation between the two subsystems permit simple interpretations of the coupled effects. The CoCEB model is used to make hypotheses on the long-term effect of investment in emission abatement, and on the comparative efficacy of different approaches to abatement, in particular by investing in low carbon technology, in deforestation reduction or in carbon capture and storage (CCS). The CoCEB model is very flexible and transparent, and it allows one to easily formulate and compare different functional representations of climate change mitigation policies. Using different mitigation measures and their cost estimates, as found in the literature, one is able to compare these measures in a coherent way.

  13. Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: a case study in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, P.; Wolf, J.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Schaap, B.F.; Mandryk, M.; Verhagen, J.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2015-01-01

    Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on integrated assessment and farming systems analysis, and account for adaptation at different levels. With a case study for Flevoland, the Netherlands, we illustrate that (1) crop models cannot

  14. Integrated assessment of adaptation to Climate change in Flevoland at the farm and regional level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wolf, J.; Mandryk, M.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Oort, van P.A.J.; Schaap, B.F.; Reidsma, P.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2011-01-01

    A key objective of the AgriAdapt project is to assess climate change impacts on agriculture including adaptation at regional and farm type level in combination with market and technological changes. More specifically, the developed methodologies enable (a) the assessment of impacts, risks and

  15. The Assessment of Sustainability Indexes and Climate Change Impacts on Integrated Water Resource Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel Hernández-Bedolla

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Integrated water resource management (IWRM is facing great challenges due to growing uncertainties caused by climate change (CC, rapid socio-economic and technological changes, and population growth. In the present study, we have developed different indices to assess the availability of water using an IWRM approach. These indices evaluate supply to demands, surface availability, groundwater availability, reservoirs, and environmental flow. Moreover, reliability, resilience, and vulnerability were determined. Sustainability index (SI and sustainability index by groups (SG were determined based on the five indices (all indices vary from 0 to 1. The impacts of climate change affect surface and groundwater availability, as do the agricultural, urban, and industrial requirements on the different supplies. We used the generalized AQUATOOL Decision Support System Shell (DSSS to evaluate the IWRM in the Rio Grande Basin (Morelia, México. Various emission scenarios from representative concentration pathways (RCPs were applied to the basin for the years 2015–2039 and 2075–2099. The results indicate increases in agricultural and urban demand, and decreases in surface runoff, as well as groundwater recharge. The proposed indices are useful for different approaches (decision-makers, water policy, and drought risks, among others. CC significantly affects the different proposed indices and indicates a decrease of the SI, SG1, and SG2 (i.e., less availability. For example, we found that SG2 decreased from 0.812 to 0.195 under the RCP 8.5 2075–2099 scenario, and SG2 equal to 0.252 and 0.326 for the RCP 6.0 2075–2099 and RCP 4.5 2070–2099 scenarios, respectively (values close to 0 indicate worst drought conditions.

  16. Integrating Science and Management to Assess Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Stephen D. Handler; Maria K. Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Christopher W. Swanston

    2017-01-01

    We developed the ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach (EVAA) to help inform potential adaptation actions in response to a changing climate. EVAA combines multiple quantitative models and expert elicitation from scientists and land managers. In each of eight assessment areas, a panel of local experts determined potential vulnerability of forest ecosystems to...

  17. Integrated assessment of farm level adaptation to climate change in agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandryk, M.

    2016-01-01

    The findings of the thesis allowed assessing plausible futures of agriculture in Flevoland around 2050 with insights in effective adaptation to climate change at different levels. Besides empirical findings, this thesis contributed methodologically to the portfolio of climate change impact and

  18. An integrated assessment of regional air pollution and climate change in Europe: findings of the AIR-CLIM project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alcamo, J.; Mayerhofer, P.; Guardans, R.; Harmelen, T. van; Minnen, J. van; Onigkeit, J.; Posch, M.; Vries, B. de

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents results of an assessment of the linkages between regional air pollution and climate change in Europe (the AIR-CLIM Project). The main research tool was an integrated modeling framework and the main product was a consistent set of long-term scenarios covering Europe between 1995

  19. Assessing institutional capacities to adapt to climate change - integrating psychological dimensions in the Adaptive Capacity Wheel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grothmann, T.; Grecksch, K.; Winges, M.; Siebenhüner, B.

    2013-03-01

    Several case studies show that "soft social factors" (e.g. institutions, perceptions, social capital) strongly affect social capacities to adapt to climate change. Many soft social factors can probably be changed faster than "hard social factors" (e.g. economic and technological development) and are therefore particularly important for building social capacities. However, there are almost no methodologies for the systematic assessment of soft social factors. Gupta et al. (2010) have developed the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW) for assessing the adaptive capacity of institutions. The ACW differentiates 22 criteria to assess six dimensions: variety, learning capacity, room for autonomous change, leadership, availability of resources, fair governance. To include important psychological factors we extended the ACW by two dimensions: "adaptation motivation" refers to actors' motivation to realise, support and/or promote adaptation to climate. "Adaptation belief" refers to actors' perceptions of realisability and effectiveness of adaptation measures. We applied the extended ACW to assess adaptive capacities of four sectors - water management, flood/coastal protection, civil protection and regional planning - in North Western Germany. The assessments of adaptation motivation and belief provided a clear added value. The results also revealed some methodological problems in applying the ACW (e.g. overlap of dimensions), for which we propose methodological solutions.

  20. Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brian C. O' Neill

    2006-08-09

    This report describes results of the research project on "Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics". The overall objective of this project was to improve projections of energy demand and associated greenhouse gas emissions by taking into account demographic factors currently not incorporated in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of global climate change. We proposed to examine the potential magnitude of effects on energy demand of changes in the composition of populations by household characteristics for three countries: the U.S., China, and Indonesia. For each country, we planned to analyze household energy use survey data to estimate relationships between household characteristics and energy use; develop a new set of detailed household projections for each country; and combine these analyses to produce new projections of energy demand illustrating the potential importance of consideration of households.

  1. Assessing institutional capacities to adapt to climate change: integrating psychological dimensions in the Adaptive Capacity Wheel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grothmann, T.; Grecksch, K.; Winges, M.; Siebenhüner, B.

    2013-12-01

    Several case studies show that social factors like institutions, perceptions and social capital strongly affect social capacities to adapt to climate change. Together with economic and technological development they are important for building social capacities. However, there are almost no methodologies for the systematic assessment of social factors. After reviewing existing methodologies we identify the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW) by Gupta et al. (2010), developed for assessing the adaptive capacity of institutions, as the most comprehensive and operationalised framework to assess social factors. The ACW differentiates 22 criteria to assess 6 dimensions: variety, learning capacity, room for autonomous change, leadership, availability of resources, fair governance. To include important psychological factors we extended the ACW by two dimensions: "adaptation motivation" refers to actors' motivation to realise, support and/or promote adaptation to climate; "adaptation belief" refers to actors' perceptions of realisability and effectiveness of adaptation measures. We applied the extended ACW to assess adaptive capacities of four sectors - water management, flood/coastal protection, civil protection and regional planning - in northwestern Germany. The assessments of adaptation motivation and belief provided a clear added value. The results also revealed some methodological problems in applying the ACW (e.g. overlap of dimensions), for which we propose methodological solutions.

  2. Climate change in the Cairns and Great Barrier Reef region. Scope and Focus for an Integrated Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crimp, S.; Balston, J.; Ash, A.; Anderson-Berry, L.; Done, T.; Greiner, R.; Hilbert, D.; Howden, M.; Jones, R.; Stokes, C.; Stoeckl, N.; Sutherst, B.; Whetton, P.

    2004-07-01

    This study was undertaken to determine the scope and focus for an integrated assessment of climate change impacts on, and adaptation options for, the Cairns Great Barrier Reef (CGBR) region. To achieve this, the authors employed both technical expertise and regional stakeholder input. This document describes the study objectives and the process used to meet these objectives, and provides an overview of the CGBR region, the views of technical experts on potential climate change impacts, stakeholder prioritisation of impacts and adaptation options, a list of perceived knowledge gaps, and a recommended structure for a future integrated assessment in the region. The aim of the study was to determine the scope and focus for an integrated regional assessment of climate change impacts on, and adaptation options for, the CGBR region. The key objectives of the study were: Define and describe the study region; Develop a process for the study, which includes key stakeholders in the region; Prepare a comprehensive list of the regional stakeholders; Brief regional stakeholders about potential climate changes in the region; Gain insight from stakeholders into the climatic dependencies of key sectors and issues in the region (agriculture, fishing, forestry, tourism, natural ecosystems, infrastructure, pests, diseases and human health); Identify possible adaptation and/or amelioration strategies for each sector; Identify synergies with other sectors, and possible barriers to undertaking climate change adaptation strategies; Identify knowledge gaps, research priorities and current activities that may need alteration or enhancement; Define the scope of a possible integrated assessment of climate change impacts on, and adaptation options for, the region

  3. Integrated assessment of water-power grid systems under changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, E.; Zhou, Z.; Betrie, G.

    2017-12-01

    Energy and water systems are intrinsically interconnected. Due to an increase in climate variability and extreme weather events, interdependency between these two systems has been recently intensified resulting significant impacts on both systems and energy output. To address this challenge, an Integrated Water-Energy Systems Assessment Framework (IWESAF) is being developed to integrate multiple existing or developed models from various sectors. In this presentation, we are focusing on recent improvement in model development of thermoelectric power plant water use simulator, power grid operation and cost optimization model, and model integration that facilitate interaction among water and electricity generation under extreme climate events. A process based thermoelectric power water use simulator includes heat-balance, climate, and cooling system modules that account for power plant characteristics, fuel types, and cooling technology. The model is validated with more than 800 power plants of fossil-fired, nuclear and gas-turbine power plants with different cooling systems. The power grid operation and cost optimization model was implemented for a selected regional in the Midwest. The case study will be demonstrated to evaluate the sensitivity and resilience of thermoelectricity generation and power grid under various climate and hydrologic extremes and potential economic consequences.

  4. The Southern Ocean ecosystem under multiple climate change stresses--an integrated circumpolar assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutt, Julian; Bertler, Nancy; Bracegirdle, Thomas J; Buschmann, Alexander; Comiso, Josefino; Hosie, Graham; Isla, Enrique; Schloss, Irene R; Smith, Craig R; Tournadre, Jean; Xavier, José C

    2015-04-01

    A quantitative assessment of observed and projected environmental changes in the Southern Ocean (SO) with a potential impact on the marine ecosystem shows: (i) large proportions of the SO are and will be affected by one or more climate change processes; areas projected to be affected in the future are larger than areas that are already under environmental stress, (ii) areas affected by changes in sea-ice in the past and likely in the future are much larger than areas affected by ocean warming. The smallest areas (Changes in iceberg impact resulting from further collapse of ice-shelves can potentially affect large parts of shelf and ephemerally in the off-shore regions. However, aragonite undersaturation (acidification) might become one of the biggest problems for the Antarctic marine ecosystem by affecting almost the entire SO. Direct and indirect impacts of various environmental changes to the three major habitats, sea-ice, pelagic and benthos and their biota are complex. The areas affected by environmental stressors range from 33% of the SO for a single stressor, 11% for two and 2% for three, to changes, and together cover almost 86% of the SO ecosystem. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Future integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment considering land use / land cover and climate change using DRASTIC and SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, W.; Engel, B.; Chaubey, I.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change causes significant changes to temperature regimes and precipitation patterns across the world. Such alterations in climate pose serious risks for not only inland freshwater ecosystems but also groundwater systems, and may adversely affect numerous critical services they provide to humans. All groundwater results from precipitation, and precipitation is affected by climate change. Climate change is also influenced by land use / land cover (LULC) change and vice versa. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, climate change is caused by global warming which is generated by the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere. LULC change is a major driving factor causing an increase in GHG emissions. LULC change data (years 2006-2100) will be produced by the Land Transformation Model (LTM) which simulates spatial patterns of LULC change over time. MIROC5 (years 2006-2100) will be obtained considering GCMs and ensemble characteristics such as resolution and trend of temperature and precipitation which is a consistency check with observed data from local weather stations and historical data from GCMs output data. Thus, MIROC5 will be used to account for future climate change scenarios and relationship between future climate change and alteration of groundwater quality in this study. For efficient groundwater resources management, integrated aquifer vulnerability assessments (= intrinsic vulnerability + hazard potential assessment) are required. DRASTIC will be used to evaluate intrinsic vulnerability, and aquifer hazard potential will be evaluated by Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) which can simulate pollution potential from surface and transport properties of contaminants. Thus, for effective integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment for LULC and climate change in the Midwestern United States, future projected LULC and climate data from the LTM and GCMs will be incorporated with DRASTIC and SWAT. It is

  6. Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Bindi, M.

    2015-01-01

    . However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming...... climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required assessment variables...

  7. Integrated impact assessment of climate change, land use, and adaptation policies on water quality in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trautvetter, Helen; Schoenhart, Martin; Parajaka, Juraj; Schmid, Erwin; Zessner, Matthias

    2017-04-01

    Climate change is one of the major challenges of our time and adds considerable stress to the human society and environment. A change in climate will not only shift general weather patterns, but might also increase the recurrence of extreme weather events such as drought and heavy rainfall. These changes in climatic conditions will affect the quality and quantity of water resources both directly as well as indirectly through autonomous adaptation by farmers (e.g. cultivar choices, fertilization intensity or soil management). This will influence the compliance with the good ecological and chemical status according to the EU Water Framework Directive. We present results from an integrated impact modelling framework (IIMF) to tackle those direct and indirect impacts and analyze policy options for planned adaptation in agricultural land use and sustainable management of land and water resources until 2040. The IIMF is the result of an interdisciplinary collaboration among economists, agronomists, and hydrologists. It consists of the bio-physical process model EPIC, the regional land use optimization model PASMA[grid], the quantitative precipitation/runoff TUWmodel and the surface water emission model MONERIS. Scenarios have been developed and parameterized in collaboration with stakeholders in order to facilitate multi-actor knowledge transfer. The set of climate change scenarios until 2040 includes three scenarios with equal temperature changes but varying precipitation patterns. They are combined with potential socio-economic and policy development. The latter include water protection measures on fertilization management, soil management, or crop rotation choices. We will presented the development of interfaces among the research, the definition of scenarios and major scenario results for Austria. We will focus on nutrient emissions to surface waters, which are the major link between the different models. The results, available at watershed level indicate the

  8. Wastewater Treatment Energy Recovery Potential For Adaptation To Global Change: An Integrated Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breach, Patrick A.; Simonovic, Slobodan P.

    2018-04-01

    Approximately 20% of wastewaters globally do not receive treatment, whereas wastewater discharges are projected to increase, thereby leading to excessive water quality degradation of surface waters on a global scale. Increased treatment could help alleviate water quality issues by constructing more treatment plants; however, in many areas there exist economic constraints. Energy recovery methods including the utilization of biogas and incineration of biosolids generated during the treatment process may help to alleviate treatment costs. This study explores the potential for investments in energy recovery from wastewater to increase treatment levels and thus improve surface water quality. This was done by examining the relationships between nutrient over-enrichment, wastewater treatment, and energy recovery at a global scale using system dynamics simulation as part of the ANEMI integrated assessment model. The results show that a significant amount of energy can be recovered from wastewater, which helps to alleviate some of the costs of treatment. It was found that wastewater treatment levels could be increased by 34%, helping to offset the higher nutrient loading from a growing population with access to improved sanitation. The production of renewable natural gas from biogas was found to have the potential to prolong the depletion of natural gas resources used to produce electricity and heat. It is recommended that agricultural nutrient discharges be better managed to help reduce nutrient over-enrichment on global scale. To increase the utility of the simulation, a finer spatial scale should be used to consider regional treatment, economic, and water quality characteristics.

  9. Integrated assessment of global climate change with learning-by-doing and energy-related research and development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller-Fuerstenberger, Georg; Stephan, Gunter

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a small-scale version of an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) of global climate change, which is based on a global, regionally differentiated computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with endogenous technological change. This model can be viewed as a basic framework for analyzing a broad range of economic issues related to climate change, in particular since technological change is represented in two ways: on the one hand, there is learning-by-doing (LbD) in non-fossil energy supply technologies, and on the other hand there is research and development (R and D)-driven energy-saving technical progress in production. Computational experiments are added for illustrating the role of technological innovation in a world both with and without cooperation in the solution of the global climate problem

  10. Evaluation of historical land cover, land use, and land-use change emissions in the GCAM integrated assessment model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Janetos, A. C.; Zhou, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are often used as science-based decision-support tools for evaluating the consequences of climate and energy policies, and their use in this framework is likely to increase in the future. However, quantitative evaluation of these models has been somewhat limited for a variety of reasons, including data availability, data quality, and the inherent challenges in projections of societal values and decision-making. In this analysis, we identify and confront methodological challenges involved in evaluating the agriculture and land use component of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. GCAM then calculates both emissions from land-use practices, and long-term changes in carbon stocks in different land uses, thus providing simulation information that can be compared to observed historical data. In this work, we compare GCAM results, both in recent historic and future time periods, to historical data sets. We focus on land use, land cover, land-use change emissions, and albedo.

  11. Assessing temporal uncertainties in integrated groundwater management: an opportunity for change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anglade, J. A.; Billen, G.; Garnier, J.

    2013-12-01

    Since the early 1990's, high levels of nitrates concentration (occasionally exceeding the European drinking standard of 50 mgNO3-/l) have been recorded in the borewells supplying Auxerres's 60.000 inhabitants water requirements. The water catchment area (86 km2) is located in a rural area dedicated to field crops production in intensive cereal farming systems based on massive inputs of synthetic fertilizers. In 1998, a co-management committee comprising Auxerre City, rural municipalities located in the water catchment area, consumers and farmers, was created as a forward-looking associative structure to achieve integrated, adaptive and sustainable management of the resource. In 2002, 18 years after the first signs of water quality degradation, multiparty negotiation led to a cooperative agreement, a contribution to assist farmers toward new practices (optimized application of fertilizers, catch crops, and buffer strips) in a form of a surcharge on consumers' water bills. The management strategy initially integrated and operating on a voluntary basis, did not rapidly deliver its promises (there was no significant decrease in the nitrates concentration). It evolved into a combination of short term palliative solutions, contractual and regulatory instruments with higher requirements. The establishment of a regulatory framework caused major tensions between stakeholders that brought about a feeling of discouragement and a lack of understanding as to the absence of results on water quality after 20 years of joint actions. At this point, the urban-rural solidarity was in danger in being undermined, so the time issue, i.e the delay between agricultural pressure changes and visible effects on water quality, was scientifically addressed and communicated to all the parties involved. First, water age dating analysis through CFC and SF6 (anthropic gas) coupled with a statistical long term analysis of agricultural evolutions revealed a residence time in the Sequanian limestones

  12. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century - Part 2: Climate change mitigation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J.; Clarke, L.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E.; Chaturvedi, V.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Patel, P.; Calvin, K.

    2013-03-01

    We investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity both globally and regionally using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m-2 in year 2095 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The results are compared to a baseline scenario (i.e. no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) by 2095. When compared to the baseline scenario and maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food and energy production, and in land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops. This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water availability in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change. Future research will be directed at incorporating water shortage feedbacks in GCAM to better understand how such stresses will propagate across the various human and natural systems in GCAM.

  13. Integrated assessment briefs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-04-01

    Integrated assessment can be used to evaluate and clarify resource management policy options and outcomes for decision makers. The defining characteristics of integrated assessment are (1) focus on providing information and analysis that can be understood and used by decision makers rather than for merely advancing understanding and (2) its multidisciplinary approach, using methods, styles of study, and considerations from a broader variety of technical areas than would typically characterize studies produced from a single disciplinary standpoint. Integrated assessment may combine scientific, social, economic, health, and environmental data and models. Integrated assessment requires bridging the gap between science and policy considerations. Because not everything can be valued using a single metric, such as a dollar value, the integrated assessment process also involves evaluating trade-offs among dissimilar attributes. Scientists at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) recognized the importance and value of multidisciplinary approaches to solving environmental problems early on and have pioneered the development of tools and methods for integrated assessment over the past three decades. Major examples of ORNL`s experience in the development of its capabilities for integrated assessment are given.

  14. The MIT Integrated Global System Model: A facility for Assessing and Communicating Climate Change Uncertainty (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prinn, R. G.

    2013-12-01

    The world is facing major challenges that create tensions between human development and environmental sustenance. In facing these challenges, computer models are invaluable tools for addressing the need for probabilistic approaches to forecasting. To illustrate this, I use the MIT Integrated Global System Model framework (IGSM; http://globalchange.mit.edu ). The IGSM consists of a set of coupled sub-models of global economic and technological development and resultant emissions, and physical, dynamical and chemical processes in the atmosphere, land, ocean and ecosystems (natural and managed). Some of the sub-models have both complex and simplified versions available, with the choice of which version to use being guided by the questions being addressed. Some sub-models (e.g.urban air pollution) are reduced forms of complex ones created by probabilistic collocation with polynomial chaos bases. Given the significant uncertainties in the model components, it is highly desirable that forecasts be probabilistic. We achieve this by running 400-member ensembles (Latin hypercube sampling) with different choices for key uncertain variables and processes within the human and natural system model components (pdfs of inputs estimated by model-observation comparisons, literature surveys, or expert elicitation). The IGSM has recently been used for probabilistic forecasts of climate, each using 400-member ensembles: one ensemble assumes no explicit climate mitigation policy and others assume increasingly stringent policies involving stabilization of greenhouse gases at various levels. These forecasts indicate clearly that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes. The value of such probability analyses for policy decision-making lies in their ability to compare relative (not just absolute) risks of various policies, which are less affected by the earth system model uncertainties. Given the uncertainties in forecasts, it is also clear that

  15. Assessing state efforts to integrate transportation, land use and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    Climate change is increasingly recognized as a threat to life on earth. Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further : warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, perv...

  16. To assess and control global change in agriculture through ecosystem models integrated into geographic information systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ponti, L.; Iannetta, M.; Gutierrez, A.P.

    2015-01-01

    The transfer of ENEA PBDM (physiologically based demographic models) GIS technology, represents an opportunity to address global change in agriculture on an ecological basis in a local context, be able to provide European governmental agencies the necessary scientific basis for developing effective policies for adaptation to global change, including climate change [it

  17. Formalizing knowledge on international environmental regimes: A first step towards integrating political science in integrated assessments of global environmental change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vos, M.G.; Janssen, P.H.M.; Kok, M.T.J.; Frantzi, S.; Dellas, E.D.; Pattberg, P.H.; Petersen, A.C.; Biermann, F.

    2013-01-01

    International environmental regimes are considered key factors in dealing with global environmental change problems. It is important to understand if and how regimes are effective in tackling these problems, which requires knowledge on their potential impact on these problems as well as on their

  18. Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA. An Integrated Assessment. Part 4. Water Resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomson, A.M.; Rosenberg, N.J.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Brown, R.A.; Srinivasan, R.

    2005-01-01

    Global climate change will impact the hydrologic cycle by increasing the capacity of the atmosphere to hold moisture. Anticipated impacts are generally increased evaporation at low latitudes and increased precipitation at middle and high latitudes. General Circulation Models (GCMs) used to simulate climate disagree on whether the U.S. as a whole and its constituent regions will receive more or less precipitation as global warming occurs. The impacts on specific regions will depend on changes in weather patterns and are certain to be complex. Here we apply the suite of 12 potential climate change scenarios, previously described in Part 1, to the Hydrologic Unit Model of the United States (HUMUS) to simulate water supply in the conterminous United States in reference to a baseline scenario. We examine the sufficiency of this water supply to meet changing demands of irrigated agriculture. The changes in water supply driven by changes in climate will likely be most consequential in the semi-arid western parts of the country where water yield is currently scarce and the resource is intensively managed. Changes of greater than ±50% with respect to present day water yield are projected in parts of the Midwest and Southwest U.S. Interannual variability in the water supply is likely to increase where conditions become drier and to decrease under wetter conditions

  19. Assess and control global change in agriculture through ecosystem models integrated in geographic information systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ponti, Luigi; Gutierrez, Andrew Paul; Iannetta, Massimo

    2015-01-01

    ENEA has created, in collaboration with the University of California at Berkeley, the Global Change Biology project that, for the first time, has made available in Europe a technology that can be It used to interpret and effectively manage change Global agriculture. The aim of the project was to provide tools to summarize, manage and analyze data Ecological on the effects of global change in agricultural systems, using traditional Mediterranean crops (Eg. Vineyards and olive) as model systems (http: // cordis.europa.eu/project/rcn/89728_en.html). [it

  20. A simulation tool for integrating climate change and Canadian surface transport : towards assessing impacts and adaptations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanaroglou, P.; Maoh, H.; Woudsma, C.; Marshall, S.

    2008-01-01

    Extreme weather events resulting from climate change will have a significant impact of the performance of the Canadian transportation system. This presentation described a simulation tool designed to investigate the potential ramifications of future climate change on transportation and the economy. The CLIMATE-C tool was designed to simulate future weather scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050 using weather parameters obtained from a global general circulation model. The model accounted for linkages between weather, transportation, and economic systems. A random utility-based multi-regional input-output model was used to predict inter-regional trade flows by truck and rail in Canada. Simulated weather scenarios were used to describe predicted changes in demographic, social, economic, technological and environmental developments to 2100. Various changes in population and economic growth were considered. Six additional scenarios were formulated to consider moderate and high rainfall events, moderate, high and extreme snowfall, and cold temperatures. Results of the preliminary analysis indicated that the model is sensitive to changes in weather events. Future research is needed to evaluate future weather scenarios and analyze weather-transport data in order to quantify travel speed reduction parameters. tabs., figs.

  1. An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Development and Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto Domingo, Nina

    Flood risk in cities is strongly affected by the development of the city itself. Many studies focus on changes in the flood hazard as a result of, for example, changed degrees of sealing in the catchment or climatic changes. However, urban developments in flood prone areas can affect the exposure...... to the hazard and thus have large impacts on flood risk. Different urban socio-economic development scenarios, rainfall inputs and options for the mitigation of flood risk, quickly lead to a large number of scenarios that need to be considered in the planning of the development of a city. This calls...... for automated analyses that allow the planner to quickly identify if, when and how infrastructure should be modified. Such analysis, which accounts for the two-way interactions between city development and flood risk, is possible only to a limited extent in existing tools. We have developed a software framework...

  2. Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles; hide

    2015-01-01

    The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-series of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developed, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for agricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have reduced the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the cross-cutting themes in AgMIP's work

  3. Equality and CO2 emissions distribution in climate change integrated assessment modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cantore, Nicola; Padilla, Emilio

    2010-01-01

    The equity implications of alternative climate policy measures are an essential issue to be considered in the design of future international agreements to tackle global warming. This paper specifically analyses the future path of emissions and income distribution and its determinants in different scenarios. Whereas our analysis is driven by tools which are typically applied in the income distribution literature and which have recently been applied to the analysis of CO 2 emissions distribution, a new methodological approach is that our study is driven by simulations run with the popular regionalised optimal growth climate change model RICE99 over the 1995-2105 period. We find that the architecture of environmental policies, the implementation of flexible mechanisms and income concentration are key determinants of emissions distribution over time. In particular we find a robust positive relationship between measures of inequalities in the distribution of emissions and income and that their magnitude will essentially depend on technological change. (author)

  4. Integrated assessment of the impact of climate and land use changes on groundwater quantity and quality in Mancha Oriental (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Peña-Haro, S.; Garcia-Prats, A.; Mocholi-Almudever, A. F.; Henriquez-Dole, L.; Macian-Sorribes, H.; Lopez-Nicolas, A.

    2014-09-01

    Climate and land use change (global change) impacts on groundwater systems cannot be studied in isolation, as various and complex interactions in the hydrological cycle take part. Land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes have a great impact on the water cycle and contaminant production and transport. Groundwater flow and storage are changing in response not only to climatic changes but also to human impacts on land uses and demands (global change). Changes in future climate and land uses will alter the hydrologic cycles and subsequently impact the quantity and quality of regional water systems. Predicting the behavior of recharge and discharge conditions under future climatic and land use changes is essential for integrated water management and adaptation. In the Mancha Oriental system in Spain, in the last decades the transformation from dry to irrigated lands has led to a significant drop of the groundwater table in one of the largest groundwater bodies in Spain, with the consequent effect on stream-aquifer interaction in the connected Jucar River. Streamflow depletion is compromising the related ecosystems and the supply to the downstream demands, provoking a complex management issue. The intense use of fertilizer in agriculture is also leading to locally high groundwater nitrate concentrations. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of water availability and water quality is essential for a proper management of the system. In this paper we analyze the potential impact of climate and land use change in the system by using an integrated modelling framework consisting of the sequentially coupling of a watershed agriculturally-based hydrological model (SWAT) with the ground-water model MODFLOW and mass-transport model MT3D. SWAT model outputs (mainly groundwater recharge and pumping, considering new irrigation needs under changing ET and precipitation) are used as MODFLOW inputs to simulate changes in groundwater flow and storage and impacts on stream

  5. Assessing climate change effects on mountain ecosystems using integrated models: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagre, Daniel B.; Running, Steven W.; Keane, Robert E.; Peterson, David L.

    2005-01-01

    Mountain systems are characterized by strong environmental gradients, rugged topography and extreme spatial heterogeneity in ecosystem structure and composition. Consequently, most mountainous areas have relatively high rates of endemism and biodiversity, and function as species refugia in many areas of the world. Mountains have long been recognized as critical entities in regional climatic and hydrological dynamics but their importance as terrestrial carbon stores has only been recently underscored (Schimel et al. 2002; this volume). Mountain ecosystems, therefore, are globally important as well as unusually complex. These ecosystems challenge our ability to understand their dynamics and predict their response to climatic variability and global-scale environmental change.

  6. An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Development and Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    that combines a model for the socio-economic development of cities (DANCE4WATER) with an urban flood model. The urban flood model is a 1D-2D spatially distributed hydrologic and hydraulic model that, for a given urban layout, simulates flow in the sewer system and the surface flow in the catchment (MIKE FLOOD......). The socio-economic model computes urban layouts that are transferred to the hydraulic model in the form of changes of impervious area and potential flow paths on the surface. Estimates of flood prone areas, as well as the expected annual damage due to flooding, are returned to the socio-economic model...... as an input for further refinement of the scenarios for the urban development. Our results in an Australian case study suggest that urban development is a major driver for flood risk and vice versa that flood risk can be significantly reduced if it is accounted for in the development of the cities...

  7. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baruffi, F.; Cisotto, A.; Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M.; Pretner, A.; Galli, A.; Scarinci, A.; Marsala, V.; Panelli, C.; Gualdi, S.; Bucchignani, E.; Torresan, S.; Pasini, S.; Critto, A.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961–1990 and the projection period 2010–2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071–2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble

  8. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baruffi, F. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cisotto, A., E-mail: segreteria@adbve.it [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Pretner, A.; Galli, A. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Scarinci, A., E-mail: andrea.scarinci@sgi-spa.it [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Marsala, V.; Panelli, C. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Gualdi, S., E-mail: silvio.gualdi@bo.ingv.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Bucchignani, E., E-mail: e.bucchignani@cira.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Torresan, S., E-mail: torresan@cmcc.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Pasini, S., E-mail: sara.pasini@stud.unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); Critto, A., E-mail: critto@unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); and others

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

  9. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-08-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining

  10. Research priorities in land use and land-cover change for the Earth System and Integrated Assessment Modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hibbard, K.; Janetos, A.; Vuuren, van D.; Pongratz, J.; Rose, S.; Betts, R.; Herold, M.; Feddema, J.

    2010-01-01

    This special issue has highlighted recent and innovative methods and results that integrate observations and modelling analyses of regional to global aspect of biophysical and biogeochemical interactions of land-cover change with the climate system. Both the Earth System and the Integrated

  11. Integrated Assessment Model Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, S. J.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J. A.; Weyant, J. P.

    2012-12-01

    Integrated assessment models of climate change (IAMs) are widely used to provide insights into the dynamics of the coupled human and socio-economic system, including emission mitigation analysis and the generation of future emission scenarios. Similar to the climate modeling community, the integrated assessment community has a two decade history of model inter-comparison, which has served as one of the primary venues for model evaluation and confirmation. While analysis of historical trends in the socio-economic system has long played a key role in diagnostics of future scenarios from IAMs, formal hindcast experiments are just now being contemplated as evaluation exercises. Some initial thoughts on setting up such IAM evaluation experiments are discussed. Socio-economic systems do not follow strict physical laws, which means that evaluation needs to take place in a context, unlike that of physical system models, in which there are few fixed, unchanging relationships. Of course strict validation of even earth system models is not possible (Oreskes etal 2004), a fact borne out by the inability of models to constrain the climate sensitivity. Energy-system models have also been grappling with some of the same questions over the last quarter century. For example, one of "the many questions in the energy field that are waiting for answers in the next 20 years" identified by Hans Landsberg in 1985 was "Will the price of oil resume its upward movement?" Of course we are still asking this question today. While, arguably, even fewer constraints apply to socio-economic systems, numerous historical trends and patterns have been identified, although often only in broad terms, that are used to guide the development of model components, parameter ranges, and scenario assumptions. IAM evaluation exercises are expected to provide useful information for interpreting model results and improving model behavior. A key step is the recognition of model boundaries, that is, what is inside

  12. Integrated ecosystem services assessment: Valuation of changes due to sea level rise in Galveston Bay, Texas, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoskowitz, David; Carollo, Cristina; Pollack, Jennifer Beseres; Santos, Carlota; Welder, Kathleen

    2017-03-01

    The goal of the present study was to identify the potential changes in ecosystem service values provided by wetlands in Galveston Bay, Texas, USA, under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B max (0.69 m) sea level rise scenario. Built exclusively upon the output produced during the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model 6 (SLAMM 6) exercise for the Galveston Bay region, this study showed that fresh marsh and salt marsh present a steady decline from 2009 (initial condition) to 2100. Fresh marsh was projected to undergo the biggest changes, with the loss of approximately 21% of its extent between 2009 and 2100 under the A1B max scenario. The percentages of change for salt marsh were less prominent at approximately 12%. This trend was also shown in the values of selected ecosystem services (disturbance regulation, waste regulation, recreation, and aesthetics) provided by these habitats. An ordinary least squares regression was used to calculate the monetary value of the selected ecosystem services provided by salt marsh and fresh marsh in 2009, and in 2050 and 2100 under the A1B max scenario. The value of the selected services showed potential monetary losses in excess of US$40 million annually in 2100, compared to 2009 for fresh marsh and more than $11 million for salt marsh. The estimates provided here are only small portions of what can be lost due to the decrease in habitat extent, and they highlight the need for protecting not only built infrastructure but also natural resources from sea level rise. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:431-443. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  13. FRAPCON-3: Integral assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lanning, D.D.; Berna, G.A.; Berna, G.A.

    1997-12-01

    An integral assessment has been performed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to quantify the predictive capabilities of FRAPCON-3, a steady-state fuel behavior code designed to analyze fuel behavior from beginning-of-life to burnup levels of 65 GWd/MTU. FRAPCON-3 code calculations are shown to compare satisfactorily to a pre-selected set of experimental data with steady-state operating conditions. 30 refs., 27 figs., 18 tabs.

  14. Integrated assessment on the vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disasters under climate change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Yanqiang; Wang, Shijin; Fang, Yiping; Nawaz, Zain

    2017-10-01

    Animal husbandry is a dominant and traditional source of livelihood and income in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is the third largest snow covered area in China and is one of the main snow disaster regions in the world. It is thus imperative to urgently address the issue of vulnerability of the animal husbandry sector to snow disasters for disaster mitigation and adaptation under growing risk of these disasters as a result of future climate change. However, there is very few literature reported on the vulnerability of animal husbandry in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. This assessment aims at identifying vulnerability of animal husbandry at spatial scale and to identify the reasons for vulnerability for adaptive planning and disaster mitigation. First, historical snow disaster characteristics have been analyzed and used for the spatial weight for vulnerability assessment. Second, indicator-based vulnerability assessment model and indicator system have been established. We combined risk of snow hazard, sensitivity of livestock to disaster, physical exposure to disaster, and community capacity to adapt to snow disaster in an integrated vulnerability index. Lastly, vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disaster on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau has been evaluated. Results indicate that high vulnerabilities are mainly concentrated in the eastern and central plateau and that vulnerability decreases gradually from the east to the west. Due to global warming, the vulnerability trend has eased to some extent during the last few decades. High livestock density exposure to blizzard-prone regions and shortages of livestock barn and forage are the main reasons of high vulnerability. The conclusion emphasizes the important role of the local government and community to help local pastoralists for reducing vulnerability to snow disaster and frozen hazard. The approaches presented in this paper can be used for snow disaster mitigation, resilience

  15. Integrative assessment of climate change for fast-growing urban areas: Measurement and recommendations for future research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haase, Dagmar; Volk, Martin

    2017-01-01

    Over the 20th century, urbanization has substantially shaped the surface of Earth. With population rapidly shifting from rural locations towards the cities, urban areas have dramatically expanded on a global scale and represent crystallization points of social, cultural and economic assets and activities. This trend is estimated to persist for the next decades, and particularly the developing countries are expected to face rapid urban growth. The management of this growth will require good governance strategies and planning. By threatening the livelihoods, assets and health as foundations of human activities, another major global change contributor, climate change, became an equally important concern of stakeholders. Based on the climate trends observed over the 20th century, and a spatially explicit model of urbanization, this paper investigates the impacts of climate change in relation to different stages of development of urban areas, thus evolving a more integrated perspective on both processes. As a result, an integrative measure of climate change trends and impacts is proposed and estimated for urban areas worldwide. We show that those areas facing major urban growth are to a large extent also hotspots of climate change. Since most of these hotspots are located in the Global South, we emphasize the need for stakeholders to co-manage both drivers of global change. The presented integrative perspective is seen as a starting point to foster such co-management, and furthermore as a means to facilitate communication and knowledge exchange on climate change impacts. PMID:29232695

  16. The relative impact of climate change mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity - An integrated assessment modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J. A.; Clarke, L. E.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Chaturvedi, V.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Kim, S.; Calvin, K. V.; Moss, R. H.

    2012-12-01

    We investigate the relative effects of climate emission mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally, by estimating both water availability and demand within a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change - the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We first develop a global gridded monthly hydrologic model that reproduces historical streamflow observations and simulates the future availability of freshwater under both a changing climate and an evolving landscape, and incorporate this model into GCAM. We then develop and incorporate technologically oriented representations of water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. To perform the water scarcity analysis at the grid scale, the global water demands for the six demand sectors are spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. The water scarcity index (WSI) compares total water demand to the total amount of renewable water available, and defines extreme water scarcity in any region as demand greater than 40% of total water availability. Using a reference scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 by 2095 and a global population of 14 billion, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demands for water exceed the total

  17. Integrated impact assessment of climate and socio-economic change on dairy farms in a watershed in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paas, Wim; Kanellopoulos, Argyris; Ven, van de Gerrie; Reidsma, Pytrik

    2016-01-01

    Climate and socio-economic change will affect the land use and the economic viability of Dutch dairy farms. Explorations of future scenarios, which include different drivers and impacts, are needed to perform ex-ante policy assessment. This study uses a bio-economic farm model to assess impacts

  18. An integrated, indicator framework for assessing large-scale variations and change in seasonal timing and phenology (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betancourt, J. L.; Weltzin, J. F.

    2013-12-01

    As part of an effort to develop an Indicator System for the National Climate Assessment (NCA), the Seasonality and Phenology Indicators Technical Team (SPITT) proposed an integrated, continental-scale framework for understanding and tracking seasonal timing in physical and biological systems. The framework shares several metrics with the EPA's National Climate Change Indicators. The SPITT framework includes a comprehensive suite of national indicators to track conditions, anticipate vulnerabilities, and facilitate intervention or adaptation to the extent possible. Observed, modeled, and forecasted seasonal timing metrics can inform a wide spectrum of decisions on federal, state, and private lands in the U.S., and will be pivotal for international efforts to mitigation and adaptation. Humans use calendars both to understand the natural world and to plan their lives. Although the seasons are familiar concepts, we lack a comprehensive understanding of how variability arises in the timing of seasonal transitions in the atmosphere, and how variability and change translate and propagate through hydrological, ecological and human systems. For example, the contributions of greenhouse warming and natural variability to secular trends in seasonal timing are difficult to disentangle, including earlier spring transitions from winter (strong westerlies) to summer (weak easterlies) patterns of atmospheric circulation; shifts in annual phasing of daily temperature means and extremes; advanced timing of snow and ice melt and soil thaw at higher latitudes and elevations; and earlier start and longer duration of the growing and fire seasons. The SPITT framework aims to relate spatiotemporal variability in surface climate to (1) large-scale modes of natural climate variability and greenhouse gas-driven climatic change, and (2) spatiotemporal variability in hydrological, ecological and human responses and impacts. The hierarchical framework relies on ground and satellite observations

  19. An integrated framework to assess plausible future livelihood and poverty changes in deltas: an application to coastal Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lázár, A. N.; Payo, A.; Nicholls, R. J.; Hutton, C.; Adams, H.; Salehin, M.; Haque, A.; Clarke, D.; Bricheno, L.; Fernandes, J. A.; Rahman, M.; Ahmed, A.; Streatfield, P. K.

    2015-12-01

    Deltas represent one of the most densely populated areas in the world. This is especially true for the coastal zone of Bangladesh where more than a thousand people live in each square kilometre of land. Livelihoods, food security and poverty in Bangladesh are strongly dependent on natural resources affected by several factors including climate variability and change, upstream river flow modifications, commercial fish catches in the Bay of Bengal, and engineering interventions such as polderisation. The scarcity of fresh water, saline water intrusion and natural disasters (e.g. river flooding, cyclones and storm surges) have negative impact on drinking water availability and crop irrigation potential; thus severely affect land use and livelihood opportunities of the coastal population. Hydro-environmental changes can be especially detrimental for the well-being of the poorest households that are highly dependent on natural resources. The ESPA Deltas project aims to holistically examine the interaction between the coupled bio-physical environment and the livelihoods of these poor populations in coastal Bangladesh. Here we describe a new integrated model that allows the long-term analysis of the possible changes in this system by linking projected changes in physical processes (e.g. river flows, nutrients), with productivity (e.g. fish, rice), social processes (e.g. access, property rights, migration) and governance/management (e.g. fisheries, agriculture, water and land use management). This integrated approach is designed to provide Bangladeshi policy makers with science-based evidence of possible development trajectories within the coastal delta plain over timescales up to 50 years, including the likely robustness of different governance options on natural resource conservation and poverty levels. This presentation describes the model framework and aims to illustrate the cause-effect relationship in-between changes of the hydro-environment and the livelihoods and

  20. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  1. An integrated framework to assess future livelihood and poverty changes in deltas: an application to coastal Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Lazar, Attlia; Payo, Andres; Adams, Helen; Salehin, Mashfiqus; Haque, Anisul; Clarke, Derek; Bricheno, Lucy; Fernandes, Jose; Rahman, Mofizur; Ahmed, Ali; Streatfield, Kim

    2016-04-01

    Coastal deltas represent some of the most densely populated areas in the world. A good example is the coastal zone of Bangladesh where there are more than 1000 people/km2 in the rural areas. Livelihoods, food security and poverty in this area is strongly dependent on natural resources affected by several factors including climate variability and change, upstream river flow modifications, commercial fish catches in the Bay of Bengal, and engineering interventions such as polderisation. The scarcity of fresh water, saline water intrusion and natural disasters (e.g. river flooding, cyclones and storm surges) have negative impact on drinking water availability and crop irrigation potential. This severely affects land use and livelihood opportunities of the coastal population. Hydro-environmental changes can be especially detrimental for the well-being of the poorest households that are highly dependent on natural resources. The ESPA Deltas project aims to holistically examine the interaction between the coupled bio-physical environment and the livelihoods of these poor populations in coastal Bangladesh. Here we describe a new integrated model that allows the long-term analysis of the possible changes in this system by linking projected changes in physical processes (e.g. river flows, nutrients), with productivity (e.g. fish catches, rice production), social processes (e.g. access, property rights, migration) and governance/management (e.g. fisheries, agriculture, water and land use management). This includes the development and application of a range of scenarios, including expert-derived scenarios on issues such as climate change, and stakeholder-derived scenarios on more local issues in Bangladesh. This integrated approach is designed to provide Bangladeshi policy makers with science-based evidence of possible development trajectories within the coastal delta plain over timescales up to 50 years, including the likely robustness of different governance options on

  2. Change Agents & Impact Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kørnøv, Lone; Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Hansen, Anne Merrild

    2010-01-01

    One of the challenges facing impact assessment is finding ways to work in research and practice that allow appropriate action and critical interrogation og action to enable and support sustainable change.......One of the challenges facing impact assessment is finding ways to work in research and practice that allow appropriate action and critical interrogation og action to enable and support sustainable change....

  3. High-resolution integration of water, energy, and climate models to assess electricity grid vulnerabilities to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, M.; Macknick, J.; Tidwell, V. C.; Zagona, E. A.; Magee, T. M.; Bennett, K.; Middleton, R. S.

    2017-12-01

    The U.S. electricity sector depends on large amounts of water for hydropower generation and cooling thermoelectric power plants. Variability in water quantity and temperature due to climate change could reduce the performance and reliability of individual power plants and of the electric grid as a system. While studies have modeled water usage in power systems planning, few have linked grid operations with physical water constraints or with climate-induced changes in water resources to capture the role of the energy-water nexus in power systems flexibility and adequacy. In addition, many hydrologic and hydropower models have a limited representation of power sector water demands and grid interaction opportunities of demand response and ancillary services. A multi-model framework was developed to integrate and harmonize electricity, water, and climate models, allowing for high-resolution simulation of the spatial, temporal, and physical dynamics of these interacting systems. The San Juan River basin in the Southwestern U.S., which contains thermoelectric power plants, hydropower facilities, and multiple non-energy water demands, was chosen as a case study. Downscaled data from three global climate models and predicted regional water demand changes were implemented in the simulations. The Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model was used to project inflows, ambient air temperature, and humidity in the San Juan River Basin. Resulting river operations, water deliveries, water shortage sharing agreements, new water demands, and hydroelectricity generation at the basin-scale were estimated with RiverWare. The impacts of water availability and temperature on electric grid dispatch, curtailment, cooling water usage, and electricity generation cost were modeled in PLEXOS. Lack of water availability resulting from climate, new water demands, and shortage sharing agreements will require thermoelectric generators to drastically decrease power production, as much as 50

  4. Integrating land use and climate change scenarios and models into assessment of forested watershed services in Southern Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trisurat, Yongyut; Eawpanich, Piyathip; Kalliola, Risto

    2016-05-01

    The Thadee watershed, covering 112km(2), is the main source of water for agriculture and household consumption in the Nakhon Srithammarat Province in Southern Thailand. As the natural forests upstream have been largely degraded and transformed to fruit tree and rubber plantations, problems with landslides and flooding have resulted. This research attempts to predict how further land-use/land-cover changes during 2009-2020 and conceivable changes in rainfall may influence the future levels of water yield and sediment load in the Thadee River. Three different land use scenarios (trend, development and conservation) were defined in collaboration with the local stakeholders, and three different rainfall scenarios (average rainfall, climate change and extreme wet) were determined on the basis of literature sources. Spatially explicit empirical modelling was employed to allocate future land demands and to assess the contributions of land use and rainfall changes, considering both their separate and combined effects. The results suggest that substantial land use changes may occur from a large expansion of rubber plantations in the upper sub-watersheds, especially under the development land use scenario. The reduction of the current annual rainfall by approximately 30% would decrease the predicted water yields by 38% from 2009. According to the extreme rainfall scenario (an increase of 36% with respect to current rainfall), an amplification of 50% of the current runoff could result. Sensitivity analyses showed that the predicted soil loss is more responsive to changes in rainfall than to the compared land use scenarios alone. However, very high sediment load and runoff levels were predicted on the basis of combined intensified land use and extreme rainfall scenarios. Three conservation activities-protection, reforestation and a mixed-cropping system-are proposed to maintain the functional watershed services of the Thadee watershed region. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc

  5. The Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Program, Climate Services, and Meeting the National Climate Change Adaptation Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overpeck, J. T.; Udall, B.; Miles, E.; Dow, K.; Anderson, C.; Cayan, D.; Dettinger, M.; Hartmann, H.; Jones, J.; Mote, P.; Ray, A.; Shafer, M.; White, D.

    2008-12-01

    The NOAA-led RISA Program has grown steadily to nine regions and a focus that includes both natural climate variability and human-driven climate change. The RISAs are, at their core, university-based and heavily invested in partnerships, particularly with stakeholders, NOAA, and other federal agencies. RISA research, assessment and partnerships have led to new operational climate services within NOAA and other agencies, and have become important foundations in the development of local, state and regional climate change adaptation initiatives. The RISA experience indicates that a national climate service is needed, and must include: (1) services prioritized based on stakeholder needs; (2) sustained, ongoing regional interactions with users, (3) a commitment to improve climate literacy; (4) support for assessment as an ongoing, iterative process; (5) full recognition that stakeholder decisions are seldom made using climate information alone; (6) strong interagency partnership; (7) national implementation and regional in focus; (8) capability spanning local, state, tribal, regional, national and international space scales, and weeks to millennia time scales; and (9) institutional design and scientific support flexible enough to assure the effort is nimble enough to respond to rapidly-changing stakeholder needs. The RISA experience also highlights the central role that universities must play in national climate change adaptation programs. Universities have a tradition of trusted regional stakeholder partnerships, as well as the interdisciplinary expertise - including social science, ecosystem science, law, and economics - required to meet stakeholder climate-related needs; project workforce can also shift rapidly in universities. Universities have a proven ability to build and sustain interagency partnerships. Universities excel in most forms of education and training. And universities often have proven entrepreneurship, technology transfer and private sector

  6. Integrating environmental and socioeconomic assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Branch, K.M.; Cluett, C.; Page, T.L.

    1987-01-01

    Since the passage of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) in 1969, considerable scientific and regulatory attention has been given to the preparation of environmental impact assessments. Part of this attention has been directed to definition of the proper scope of an environmental assessment and to debate about how the ''human environment'' should be addressed. This debate continues, and is reflected in the ongoing evolution of the definition of and relationship between the ''environmental'' and ''socioeconomic'' components of an integrated environmental impact assessment. This paper discusses the need for close integration between the environmental and socioeconomic assessment efforts and examines some of the benefits and difficulties of achieving this integration

  7. Integrating Plant Science and Crop Modeling: Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Soybean and Maize Production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fodor, Nándor; Challinor, Andrew; Droutsas, Ioannis; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Zabel, Florian; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Foyer, Christine H

    2017-11-01

    Increasing global CO2 emissions have profound consequences for plant biology, not least because of direct influences on carbon gain. However, much remains uncertain regarding how our major crops will respond to a future high CO2 world. Crop model inter-comparison studies have identified large uncertainties and biases associated with climate change. The need to quantify uncertainty has drawn the fields of plant molecular physiology, crop breeding and biology, and climate change modeling closer together. Comparing data from different models that have been used to assess the potential climate change impacts on soybean and maize production, future yield losses have been predicted for both major crops. When CO2 fertilization effects are taken into account significant yield gains are predicted for soybean, together with a shift in global production from the Southern to the Northern hemisphere. Maize production is also forecast to shift northwards. However, unless plant breeders are able to produce new hybrids with improved traits, the forecasted yield losses for maize will only be mitigated by agro-management adaptations. In addition, the increasing demands of a growing world population will require larger areas of marginal land to be used for maize and soybean production. We summarize the outputs of crop models, together with mitigation options for decreasing the negative impacts of climate on the global maize and soybean production, providing an overview of projected land-use change as a major determining factor for future global crop production. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Japanese Society of Plant Physiologists.

  8. Philosophy of integrity assessment of engineering components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaudhuri, Satyabrata

    2008-01-01

    Integrity assessment of engineering components in power plants and process industries has attracted global attention from the viewpoint of safety and economy for their optimum utilization. This paper describes some aspects of philosophy of component integrity such as life assessment technology, materials used and the factors limiting the serviceability of the components operating at high temperatures and pressures. Numerous investigations have been carried out all over the world to study changes in microstructure and material property due to prolonged service of the components to decide their further serviceability. This paper includes case studies on integrity assessment of service-exposed components carried out in our laboratory as well

  9. Payment changes require integrating records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palley, M A

    1990-06-01

    The greatest challenges for healthcare organizations facing radical changes in their payment and reporting structures lie in finding ways to integrate various forms of patient information. An analysis of how three New York City hospitals dealt with their state's switch to an all-payer diagnosis related group-based payment system reveals strengths and weaknesses in their existing information systems and in steps taken to adapt to the change.

  10. Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; Monier, Erwan

    2017-08-01

    While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climate change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.

  11. Technical Assessment: Integrated Photonics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-01

    and resources we routinely demand are predicated on the delivery of high-bandwidth services. At the same time, new computing paradigms such as cloud ...state of the art IPCs onshore. Recommendation 11: Continue to implement policies designed to ensure production integrity of IPC technology. This...operators include both content providers such as Netflix, and Amazon , and neutral providers such as Digital Realty, Equinix, and Rackspace. Cloud operators

  12. Integrating Ecohealth Assessment in the Americas | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    However, very few impact assessment laws are adequately implemented in Latin ... Integrated eco-health assessment law in the Americas : a hemispheric research ... IWRA/IDRC webinar on climate change and adaptive water management. International Water Resources Association, in close collaboration with IDRC, ...

  13. Integrated assessment of the impact of climate and land use changes on groundwater quantity and quality in Mancha Oriental (Spain)

    OpenAIRE

    M. Pulido-Velazquez; S. Peña-Haro; A. Garcia-Prats; A. F. Mocholi-Almudever; L. Henriquez-Dole; H. Macian-Sorribes; A. Lopez-Nicolas

    2014-01-01

    Climate and land use change (global change) impacts on groundwater systems cannot be studied in isolation, as various and complex interactions in the hydrological cycle take part. Land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes have a great impact on the water cycle and contaminant production and transport. Groundwater flow and storage are changing in response not only to climatic changes but also to human impacts on land uses and demands (global change). Changes in future climate an...

  14. State Program Integrity Assessment (SPIA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The State Program Integrity Assessment (SPIA) is the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) first national data collection on state Medicaid program...

  15. Integrated Environmental Assessment Modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guardanz, R; Gimeno, B S; Bermejo, V; Elvira, S; Martin, F; Palacios, M; Rodriguez, E; Donaire, I [Ciemat, Madrid (Spain)

    2000-07-01

    This report describes the results of the Spanish participation in the project Coupling CORINAIR data to cost-effect emission reduction strategies based on critical threshold. (EU/LIFE97/ENV/FIN/336). The subproject has focused on three tasks. Develop tools to improve knowledge on the spatial and temporal details of emissions of air pollutants in Spain. Exploit existing experimental information on plant response to air pollutants in temperate ecosystem and Integrate these findings in a modelling framework that can asses with more accuracy the impact of air pollutants to temperate ecosystems. The results obtained during the execution of this project have significantly improved the models of the impact of alternative emission control strategies on ecosystems and crops in the Iberian Peninsula. (Author) 375 refs.

  16. Case study Sylt - Consequences and integrated assessment of climate change. Final report; Klimaaenderung und Kueste. Fallstudie Sylt - Integrative Analyse und Bewertung der Folgen von Klimaaenderungen. Endbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fraenzle, O.; Sterr, H.; Daschkeit, A.

    2001-05-01

    This final report deals with the structure of the 'case study Sylt' against the background of climate change and possible consequences. In cooperation with the other projects of the case study an instrument is developed which maintains interdisciplinary communication and cooperation. First the 'System Sylt' is described to identify and specify the relevant aspects of functional relationships between the natural and the social system. The focal points are (1) the first-order impacts of climate change, (2) the potential ecological changes in the near future and (3) the image of the North-Sea island Sylt. With regard to the image of Sylt we find some discrepancies existing between a statical respectively a dynamical view; these discrepancies are inherent parts of the future development. All results are seen in the context of 'Integrated Coastal Zone Management' (ICZM) to derive general and specific recommendations for political action and further research. (orig.) [German] Vor dem Hintergrund von Annahmen bezueglich der zukuenftigen klimatischen Entwicklung werden die Konzeption sowie die Vorgehensweise der integrativen Analyse im Rahmen der Fallstudie Sylt dargestellt. Unter Anbindung an das Sylt-GIS wird ein Instrument entwickelt und erprobt, das die (bislang seltene) fachuebergreifende Analyse von Klimafolgen unterstuetzt. Diese muendet zunaechst in eine Darstellung des 'Systems Sylt' auf der Grundlage der wichtigsten Prozesse und Randbedingungen. Die auf dieser Basis identifizierten Kernberichte des 'Systems Sylt' werden in einem weiteren exemplarisch und unter Einbezug des in den disziplinaeren Teilvorhaben der Fallstudie erarbeiteten Wissens einer vertiefenden Analyse unterzogen. Dabei wird erstens auf den Bereich der Folgen eines moeglichen Klimawandels eingegangen, zweitens auf vergangene und zukuenftig moegliche oekologische Veraenderungen und drittens auf das Sylt-Image. Durch eine detailliertere Analyse des

  17. Case study Sylt - Consequences and integrated assessment of climate change. Final report; Klimaaenderung und Kueste. Fallstudie Sylt - Integrative Analyse und Bewertung der Folgen von Klimaaenderungen. Endbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fraenzle, O; Sterr, H; Daschkeit, A

    2001-05-01

    This final report deals with the structure of the 'case study Sylt' against the background of climate change and possible consequences. In cooperation with the other projects of the case study an instrument is developed which maintains interdisciplinary communication and cooperation. First the 'System Sylt' is described to identify and specify the relevant aspects of functional relationships between the natural and the social system. The focal points are (1) the first-order impacts of climate change, (2) the potential ecological changes in the near future and (3) the image of the North-Sea island Sylt. With regard to the image of Sylt we find some discrepancies existing between a statical respectively a dynamical view; these discrepancies are inherent parts of the future development. All results are seen in the context of 'Integrated Coastal Zone Management' (ICZM) to derive general and specific recommendations for political action and further research. (orig.) [German] Vor dem Hintergrund von Annahmen bezueglich der zukuenftigen klimatischen Entwicklung werden die Konzeption sowie die Vorgehensweise der integrativen Analyse im Rahmen der Fallstudie Sylt dargestellt. Unter Anbindung an das Sylt-GIS wird ein Instrument entwickelt und erprobt, das die (bislang seltene) fachuebergreifende Analyse von Klimafolgen unterstuetzt. Diese muendet zunaechst in eine Darstellung des 'Systems Sylt' auf der Grundlage der wichtigsten Prozesse und Randbedingungen. Die auf dieser Basis identifizierten Kernberichte des 'Systems Sylt' werden in einem weiteren exemplarisch und unter Einbezug des in den disziplinaeren Teilvorhaben der Fallstudie erarbeiteten Wissens einer vertiefenden Analyse unterzogen. Dabei wird erstens auf den Bereich der Folgen eines moeglichen Klimawandels eingegangen, zweitens auf vergangene und zukuenftig moegliche oekologische Veraenderungen und drittens auf das Sylt-Image. Durch eine detailliertere Analyse des Sylt-Image kann aufgezeigt werden, dass sich eine

  18. One-way coupling of an integrated assessment model and a water resources model: evaluation and implications of future changes over the US Midwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voisin, N.; Liu, L.; Hejazi, M.; Tesfa, T.; Li, H.; Huang, M.; Liu, Y.; Leung, L. R.

    2013-11-01

    An integrated model is being developed to advance our understanding of the interactions between human activities, terrestrial system and water cycle, and to evaluate how system interactions will be affected by a changing climate at the regional scale. As a first step towards that goal, a global integrated assessment model, which includes a water-demand model driven by socioeconomics at regional and global scales, is coupled in a one-way fashion with a land surface hydrology-routing-water resources management model. To reconcile the scale differences between the models, a spatial and temporal disaggregation approach is developed to downscale the annual regional water demand simulations into a daily time step and subbasin representation. The model demonstrates reasonable ability to represent the historical flow regulation and water supply over the US Midwest (Missouri, Upper Mississippi, and Ohio river basins). Implications for future flow regulation, water supply, and supply deficit are investigated using climate change projections with the B1 and A2 emission scenarios, which affect both natural flow and water demand. Although natural flow is projected to increase under climate change in both the B1 and A2 scenarios, there is larger uncertainty in the changes of the regulated flow. Over the Ohio and Upper Mississippi river basins, changes in flow regulation are driven by the change in natural flow due to the limited storage capacity. However, both changes in flow and demand have effects on the Missouri River Basin summer regulated flow. Changes in demand are driven by socioeconomic factors, energy and food demands, global markets and prices with rainfed crop demand handled directly by the land surface modeling component. Even though most of the changes in supply deficit (unmet demand) and the actual supply (met demand) are driven primarily by the change in natural flow over the entire region, the integrated framework shows that supply deficit over the Missouri River

  19. INTEGRATED QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF CHANGES IN NEURO-ENDOCRINE-IMMUNE COMPLEX AND METABOLISM IN RATS EXPOSED TO ACUTE COLD-IMMOBILIZATION STRESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sydoruk O Sydoruk

    2016-09-01

        Abstracts Background. It is known that the reaction of the neuroendocrine-immune complex to acute and chronic stress are different. It is also known about sex differences in stress reactions. Previously we have been carry out integrated quantitative estimation of neuroendocrine and immune responses to chronic restraint stress at male rats. The purpose of this study - to carry out integrated quantitative estimation of neuroendocrine, immune and metabolic responses to acute stress at male and female rats. Material and research methods. The experiment is at 58 (28 male and 30 female white rats Wistar line weighing 170-280 g (Mean=220 g; SD=28 g. The day after acute (water immersion restraint stress determined HRV, endocrine, immune and metabolic parameters as well as gastric mucosa injuries and comparing them with parameters of intact animals. Results. Acute cold-immobilization stress caused moderate injuries the stomach mucosa as erosions and ulcers. Among the metabolic parameters revealed increased activity Acid Phosphatase, Asparagine and Alanine Aminotranspherase as well as Creatinephosphokinase. It was also found to reduce plasma Testosterone as well as serum Potassium and Phosphate probably due to increased Parathyrine and Mineralocorticoid activity and Sympathotonic shift of sympatho-vagal balance. Integrated quantitative measure manifestations of Acute Stress as mean of modules of Z-Scores makes for 10 metabolic parameters 0,75±0,10 σ and for 8 neuro-endocrine parameters 0,40±0,07 σ. Among immune parameters some proved resistant to acute stress factors, while 10 significant suppressed and 12 activated. Integrated quantitative measure poststressory changes makes 0,73±0,08 σ. Found significant differences integrated status intact males and females, whereas after stress differences are insignificant. Conclusion. The approach to integrated quantitative assessment of neuroendocrine-immune complex and metabolism may be useful for testing the

  20. What role will climate change play in EU agricultural markets? An integrated assessment taking into account carbon fertilization effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez, P.; Blanco, M.; Van Doorslaer, B.; Ramos, F.; Ceglar, A.

    2017-07-01

    Recent studies point to climate change being one of the long-term drivers of agricultural market uncertainty. To advance in the understanding of the influence of climate change on future agricultural market developments, we compared a baseline scenario for the year 2030 with alternative simulation scenarios that differ regarding: (1) emission scenarios; (2) climate projections; and (3) the consideration of carbon fertilization effects on crop growth. For each simulation scenario, the CAPRI model provides global and EU-wide impacts of climate change on agricultural markets. Results showed that climate change would considerably affect agrifood markets up to 2030. Nevertheless, market-driven adaptation strategies (production intensification, trade adjustments) would soften the impact of yield shocks on supply and demand. As a result, regional changes in production would be lower than foreseen by other studies focused on supply effects.

  1. What role will climate change play in EU agricultural markets? An integrated assessment taking into account carbon fertilization effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, P.; Blanco, M.; Van Doorslaer, B.; Ramos, F.; Ceglar, A.

    2017-01-01

    Recent studies point to climate change being one of the long-term drivers of agricultural market uncertainty. To advance in the understanding of the influence of climate change on future agricultural market developments, we compared a baseline scenario for the year 2030 with alternative simulation scenarios that differ regarding: (1) emission scenarios; (2) climate projections; and (3) the consideration of carbon fertilization effects on crop growth. For each simulation scenario, the CAPRI model provides global and EU-wide impacts of climate change on agricultural markets. Results showed that climate change would considerably affect agrifood markets up to 2030. Nevertheless, market-driven adaptation strategies (production intensification, trade adjustments) would soften the impact of yield shocks on supply and demand. As a result, regional changes in production would be lower than foreseen by other studies focused on supply effects.

  2. Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA. An Integrated Assessment. Part 6. Distribution and Productivity of Unmanaged Ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Izaurralde, R.C.; Thomson, A.M.; Rosenberg, N.J. [The Joint Global Change Research Institute, 8400 Baltimore Avenue, Suite 201, College Park, Maryland, 20740-2496 (United States); Brown, R.A. [Independent Project Analysis, 11150 Sunset Hills Rd., Suite 3, Reston, Virginia, 20190 (United States)

    2005-03-01

    Human activities have altered the distribution and quality of terrestrial ecosystems. Future demands for goods and services from terrestrial ecosystems will occur in a world experiencing human-induced climate change. In this study, we characterize the range in response of unmanaged ecosystems in the conterminous U.S. to 12 climate change scenarios. We obtained this response by simulating the climatically induced shifts in net primary productivity and geographical distribution of major biomes in the conterminous U.S. with the BIOME 3 model. BIOME 3 captured well the potential distribution of major biomes across the U.S. under baseline (current) climate. BIOME 3 also reproduced the general trends of observed net primary production (NPP) acceptably. The NPP projections were reasonable for forests, but not for grasslands where the simulated values were always greater than those observed. Changes in NPP would be most severe under the BMRC climate change scenario in which severe changes in regional temperatures are projected. Under the UIUC and UIUC + Sulfate scenarios, NPP generally increases, especially in the West where increases in precipitation are projected to be greatest. A CO2-fertilization effect either amplified increases or alleviated losses in modeled NPP. Changes in NPP were also associated with changes in the geographic distribution of major biomes. Temperate/boreal mixed forests would cover less land in the U.S. under most of the climate change scenarios examined. Conversely, the temperate conifer and temperate deciduous forests would increase in areal extent under the UIUC and UIUC + Sulfate scenarios. The Arid Shrubland/Steppe would spread significantly across the southwest U.S. under the BMRC scenario. A map overlay of the simulated regions that would lose or gain capacity to produce corn and wheat on top of the projected distribution of natural ecosystems under the BMRC and UIUC scenarios (Global mean temperature increase of +2.5C, no CO2 effect

  3. Adaptation, Spatial Heterogeneity, and the Vulnerability of Agricultural Systems to Climate Change and CO2 Fertilization: An Integrated Assessment Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antle, J.M.; Capalbo, S.M.; Elliott, E.T.; Paustian, K.H.

    2004-01-01

    In this paper we develop economic measures of vulnerability to climate change with and without adaptation in agricultural production systems. We implement these measures using coupled, site-specific ecosystem and economic simulation models. This modeling approach has two key features needed to study the response of agricultural production systems to climate change: it represents adaptation as an endogenous, non-marginal economic response to climate change; and it provides the capability to represent the spatial variability in bio-physical and economic conditions that interact with adaptive responses. We apply this approach to the dryland grain production systems of the Northern Plains region of the United States. The results support the hypothesis that the most adverse impacts on net returns distributions tend to occur in the areas with the poorest resource endowments and when mitigating effects of CO2 fertilization and adaptation are absent. We find that relative and absolute measures of vulnerability depend on complex interactions between climate change, CO2 level, adaptation, and economic conditions such as relative output prices. The relationship between relative vulnerability and resource endowments varies with assumptions about climate change, adaptation, and economic conditions. Vulnerability measured with respect to an absolute threshold is inversely related to resource endowments in all cases investigated

  4. Selection of a representative subset of global climate models that captures the profile of regional changes for integrated climate impacts assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex C. Ruane

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract We present the Representative Temperature and Precipitation (T&P GCM Subsetting Approach developed within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP to select a practical subset of global climate models (GCMs for regional integrated assessment of climate impacts when resource limitations do not permit the full ensemble of GCMs to be evaluated given the need to also focus on impacts sector and economics models. Subsetting inherently leads to a loss of information but can free up resources to explore important uncertainties in the integrated assessment that would otherwise be prohibitive. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach identifies five individual GCMs that capture a profile of the full ensemble of temperature and precipitation change within the growing season while maintaining information about the probability that basic classes of climate changes (relatively cool/wet, cool/dry, middle, hot/wet, and hot/dry are projected in the full GCM ensemble. We demonstrate the selection methodology for maize impacts in Ames, Iowa, and discuss limitations and situations when additional information may be required to select representative GCMs. We then classify 29 GCMs over all land areas to identify regions and seasons with characteristic diagonal skewness related to surface moisture as well as extreme skewness connected to snow-albedo feedbacks and GCM uncertainty. Finally, we employ this basic approach to recognize that GCM projections demonstrate coherence across space, time, and greenhouse gas concentration pathway. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach provides a quantitative basis for the determination of useful GCM subsets, provides a practical and coherent approach where previous assessments selected solely on availability of scenarios, and may be extended for application to a range of scales and sectoral impacts.

  5. Instruments to assess integrated care

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyngsø, Anne Marie; Godtfredsen, Nina Skavlan; Høst, Dorte

    2014-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Although several measurement instruments have been developed to measure the level of integrated health care delivery, no standardised, validated instrument exists covering all aspects of integrated care. The purpose of this review is to identify the instruments concerning how to mea...... was prevalent. It is uncertain whether development of a single 'all-inclusive' model for assessing integrated care is desirable. We emphasise the continuing need for validated instruments embedded in theoretical contexts.......INTRODUCTION: Although several measurement instruments have been developed to measure the level of integrated health care delivery, no standardised, validated instrument exists covering all aspects of integrated care. The purpose of this review is to identify the instruments concerning how...... to measure the level of integration across health-care sectors and to assess and evaluate the organisational elements within the instruments identified. METHODS: An extensive, systematic literature review in PubMed, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Cochrane Library, Web of Science for the years 1980-2011. Selected...

  6. How to account for irreversibility in integrated assessment of climate change?; Comment tenir compte de l'irreversibilite dans l'evaluation integree du changement climatique?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ha Duong, M

    1998-04-15

    How to account for irreversibility in integrated assessment of climate change? This Ph. D. thesis in Economics balances discounting, technical progress and the inertia of existing capital stock against uncertainty and the inertia of socio-economic systems to examine the issue of near term limitations of greenhouse gases emissions. After a general overview in chapter 2, and a more historical presentation of the debates in chapter 3, chapter 4 proceeds to review a large number of integrated assessment models. Chapter 5 introduces a Model on the Dynamics of Inertia and Adaptability of energy systems: DIAM, used to discuss how much previous studies might have overestimated the long term costs of CO{sub 2} limitations and underestimated adjustment costs. It shows that, given a target date for atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration stabilisation, a higher inertia implies a lower optimal concentration trajectory. In a sequential decision framework, chapter 6 shows that current uncertainties about which CO{sub 2} concentration ceiling would not present dangerous interference with the climate system justifies precautionary action. Finally, chapter 7 uses the irreversibility effect theory to define formally situations of decision under controversy and compare the irreversibility of CO{sub 2} accumulation with the irreversibility of investments needed to moderate it. An option value for greenhouse gases emissions limitations is computed. (author)

  7. How to account for irreversibility in integrated assessment of climate change?; Comment tenir compte de l'irreversibilite dans l'evaluation integree du changement climatique?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ha Duong, M

    1998-04-15

    How to account for irreversibility in integrated assessment of climate change? This Ph. D. thesis in Economics balances discounting, technical progress and the inertia of existing capital stock against uncertainty and the inertia of socio-economic systems to examine the issue of near term limitations of greenhouse gases emissions. After a general overview in chapter 2, and a more historical presentation of the debates in chapter 3, chapter 4 proceeds to review a large number of integrated assessment models. Chapter 5 introduces a Model on the Dynamics of Inertia and Adaptability of energy systems: DIAM, used to discuss how much previous studies might have overestimated the long term costs of CO{sub 2} limitations and underestimated adjustment costs. It shows that, given a target date for atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration stabilisation, a higher inertia implies a lower optimal concentration trajectory. In a sequential decision framework, chapter 6 shows that current uncertainties about which CO{sub 2} concentration ceiling would not present dangerous interference with the climate system justifies precautionary action. Finally, chapter 7 uses the irreversibility effect theory to define formally situations of decision under controversy and compare the irreversibility of CO{sub 2} accumulation with the irreversibility of investments needed to moderate it. An option value for greenhouse gases emissions limitations is computed. (author)

  8. Integrated assessment of the impact of climate and land use changes on groundwater quantity and quality in the Mancha Oriental system (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Peña-Haro, S.; García-Prats, A.; Mocholi-Almudever, A. F.; Henriquez-Dole, L.; Macian-Sorribes, H.; Lopez-Nicolas, A.

    2015-04-01

    Climate and land use change (global change) impacts on groundwater systems cannot be studied in isolation. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes have a great impact on the water cycle and contaminant production and transport. Groundwater flow and storage are changing in response not only to climatic changes but also to human impacts on land uses and demands, which will alter the hydrologic cycle and subsequently impact the quantity and quality of regional water systems. Predicting groundwater recharge and discharge conditions under future climate and land use changes is essential for integrated water management and adaptation. In the Mancha Oriental system (MOS), one of the largest groundwater bodies in Spain, the transformation from dry to irrigated lands during the last decades has led to a significant drop of the groundwater table, with the consequent effect on stream-aquifer interaction in the connected Jucar River. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of water quantity and water quality is essential for a proper management of the system. On the one hand, streamflow depletion is compromising the dependent ecosystems and the supply to the downstream demands, provoking a complex management issue. On the other hand, the intense use of fertilizer in agriculture is leading to locally high groundwater nitrate concentrations. In this paper we analyze the potential impacts of climate and land use change in the system by using an integrated modeling framework that consists in sequentially coupling a watershed agriculturally based hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) with a groundwater flow model developed in MODFLOW, and with a nitrate mass-transport model in MT3DMS. SWAT model outputs (mainly groundwater recharge and pumping, considering new irrigation needs under changing evapotranspiration (ET) and precipitation) are used as MODFLOW inputs to simulate changes in groundwater flow and storage and impacts on stream

  9. IDEAS (Integrate, Design, Assess, and Share): A Framework and Toolkit of Strategies for the Development of More Effective Digital Interventions to Change Health Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mummah, Sarah Ann; Robinson, Thomas N; King, Abby C; Gardner, Christopher D; Sutton, Stephen

    2016-12-16

    Developing effective digital interventions to change health behavior has been a challenging goal for academics and industry players alike. Guiding intervention design using the best combination of approaches available is necessary if effective technologies are to be developed. Behavioral theory, design thinking, user-centered design, rigorous evaluation, and dissemination each have widely acknowledged merits in their application to digital health interventions. This paper introduces IDEAS, a step-by-step process for integrating these approaches to guide the development and evaluation of more effective digital interventions. IDEAS is comprised of 10 phases (empathize, specify, ground, ideate, prototype, gather, build, pilot, evaluate, and share), grouped into 4 overarching stages: Integrate, Design, Assess, and Share (IDEAS). Each of these phases is described and a summary of theory-based behavioral strategies that may inform intervention design is provided. The IDEAS framework strives to provide sufficient detail without being overly prescriptive so that it may be useful and readily applied by both investigators and industry partners in the development of their own mHealth, eHealth, and other digital health behavior change interventions. ©Sarah Ann Mummah, Thomas N Robinson, Abby C King, Christopher D Gardner, Stephen Sutton. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 16.12.2016.

  10. Integrated approach to assessing streamflow and precipitation alterations under environmental change: Application in the Niger River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dagbegnon Clement Sohoulande Djebou

    2015-09-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: Over the period 1961–2012, I conduct a change point analysis of the streamflow and report two sub-periods 1961–1982 and 1983–2012. A comparison of precipitation and streamflow during these two time-slices shows meaningful changes. I describe a Kernel density analysis of streamflow and yield a probabilistic estimate of discharge anomalies along the river. Later, I evaluate seasonal trends of precipitation and streamflow. The analyses bring out critical alterations in time and space. However, these alterations seem to foreshadow critical environmental degradations occurring across the watershed. I consider LAI series derived from MODIS images, then I examine and discuss trends in land-cover dynamics in relation with the patterns in precipitation and streamflow. This late analytical step yields a holistic picture of the ongoing alterations in the Niger River Basin. Finally, I emphasize suggestions, valuable for a comprehensive water resources and environment management.

  11. An integrated framework for assessing vulnerability to climate change and developing adaptation strategies for coffee growing families in Mesoamerica.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Baca

    Full Text Available The Mesoamerican region is considered to be one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change. We developed a framework for quantifying the vulnerability of the livelihoods of coffee growers in Mesoamerica at regional and local levels and identify adaptation strategies. Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC concepts, vulnerability was defined as the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. To quantify exposure, changes in the climatic suitability for coffee and other crops were predicted through niche modelling based on historical climate data and locations of coffee growing areas from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Future climate projections were generated from 19 Global Circulation Models. Focus groups were used to identify nine indicators of sensitivity and eleven indicators of adaptive capacity, which were evaluated through semi-structured interviews with 558 coffee producers. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were then condensed into an index of vulnerability, and adaptation strategies were identified in participatory workshops. Models predict that all target countries will experience a decrease in climatic suitability for growing Arabica coffee, with highest suitability loss for El Salvador and lowest loss for Mexico. High vulnerability resulted from loss in climatic suitability for coffee production and high sensitivity through variability of yields and out-migration of the work force. This was combined with low adaptation capacity as evidenced by poor post harvest infrastructure and in some cases poor access to credit and low levels of social organization. Nevertheless, the specific contributors to vulnerability varied strongly among countries, municipalities and families making general trends difficult to identify. Flexible strategies for adaption are therefore needed. Families need the support of government and institutions specialized in impacts of

  12. Integrated Assessments of the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: An Overview of AgMIP Regional Research in South Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDermid, Sonali P.; Dileepkumar, Guntuku; Murthy, K. M. Dakshina; Nedumaran, S.; Singh, Piara; Srinivasa, Chukka; Gangwar, B.; Subash, N.; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Zubair, Lareef; hide

    2015-01-01

    South Asia's growing population. In order to assess the future of food and livelihood security across South Asia, the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has undertaken integrated climate-crop-economic assessments of the impact of climate change on food security and poverty in South Asia, encompassing Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. AgMIP has funded, on a competitive basis, four South Asian regional research teams (RRTs) and one South Asian coordination team (CT) to undertake climate-crop-economic integrated assessments of food security for many districts in each of these countries, with the goal of characterizing the state of food security and poverty across the region, and projecting how these are subject to change under future climate change conditions.

  13. An integrated framework to assess adaptation options to climate change impacts in an irrigated basin in Central North Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicuna, S.; Melo, O.; Meza, F. J.; Alvarez, P.; Maureira, F.; Sanchez, A.; Tapia, A.; Cortes, M.; Dale, L. L.

    2013-12-01

    Future climate conditions could potentially affect water supply and demand on water basins throughout the world but especially on snowmelt-driven agriculture oriented basins that can be found throughout central Chile. Increasing temperature and reducing precipitation will affect both the magnitude and timing of water supply this part of the world. Different adaptation strategies could be implemented to reduce the impacts of such scenarios. Some could be incorporated as planned policies decided at the basin or Water Use Organization levels. Examples include changing large scale irrigation infrastructure (reservoirs and main channels) either physically or its operation. Complementing these strategies it is reasonable to think that at a disaggregated level, farmers would also react (adapt) to these new conditions using a mix of options to either modify their patterns of consumption (irrigation efficiency, crop mix, crop area reduction), increase their ability to access new sources of water (groundwater, water markets) or finally compensate their expected losses (insurance). We present a modeling framework developed to represent these issues using as a case study the Limarí basin located in Central Chile. This basin is a renowned example of how the development of reservoirs and irrigation infrastructure can reduce climate vulnerabilities allowing the economic development of a basin. Farmers in this basin tackle climate variability by adopting different strategies that depend first on the reservoir water volume allocation rule, on the type and size of investment they have at their farms and finally their potential access to water markets and other water supplies options. The framework developed can be used to study these strategies under current and future climate scenarios. The cornerstone of the framework is an hydrology and water resources model developed on the WEAP platform. This model is able to reproduce the large scale hydrologic features of the basin such as

  14. Testing a participatory integrated assessment(PIA) approach to select climate change adaptation actions to enhance wetland sustainability: The case of Poyang Lake region in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUANG; Li; YIN; Yongyuan; DU; De-Bin

    2015-01-01

    The necessity of mainstreaming climate adaptation strategies or policies into natural resource management plans has been recognized by the UNFCCC.The IPCC AR5 report suggests a growing demand for research to provide information for a deeper and more useful understanding of climate adaptation options,and indicates a lack of effective methods to meet this increasing demand of policymakers.In this respect,a participatory integrated assessment(PIA) approach is presented in this paper to provide an effective means to mainstream wetland climate change adaptation in rural sustainable development strategies,and thus to reduce climate vulnerability and to enhance rural community livelihood.The PIA approach includes a series of research activities required to assess climate impacts on wetland ecosystems,and to prioritize adaptation responses.A range of adaptation options that address key aspects of the wetland ecosystem resilience and concerns are evaluated against community based on sustainable development indicators.The PIA approach is able to identify desirable adaptation options which can then be implemented to improve wetland ecosystem health and to enhance regional sustainable development in a changing climate.For illustration purpose,the PIA was applied in a case study in Poyang Lake(PYL) region,a critical wetland and water ecosystem in central China with important international biodiversity linkages,and a locale for key policy experiments with ecosystem rehabilitation.The PIA was used to facilitate the integration of wetland climate change adaptation in rural sustainable development actions with multi-stakeholders participation.In particular,the case shows how the PIA can be designed and implemented to select effective and practical climate change adaptation options to enhance ecosystem services management and to reduce resource use conflicts and rural poverty.Worked in partnership with multi-stakeholders and assisted with a multi-criteria decision making tool

  15. Development, Implementation, and Assessment of Climate Curricular Materials for Introductory Undergraduates: Lessons Learned from the InTeGrate Project's Climate of Change Module

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, B.; Fadem, C. M.; Shellito, L. J.

    2014-12-01

    Designing climate change curricular materials suitable for wide adoption across institutions and academic disciplines (including those outside of the geosciences) requires collaboration among faculty at different types of institutions and consideration of a variety of student populations, learning styles, and course formats. The Interdisciplinary Teaching of Geoscience for a Sustainable Future (InTeGrate) project, an NSF STEP Center program, provides opportunities for faculty to develop 2-3 week teaching modules to engage students in understanding the intersections between geoscience topics and societal issues. From 2012-2014, a team of 3 faculty from a liberal arts college, comprehensive university, and community college developed, implemented, assessed, and revised a 2-3 week module for introductory undergraduates entitled "Climate of change: interactions and feedbacks between water, air, and ice". The module uses authentic atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere data from several regions to illustrate how climate impacts human societies and that the climate system has interacting components complicated by feedbacks, uncertainties, and human behavioral decisions. Students also consider past and present human adaptations to climate fluctuations. The module was piloted in introductory geology, meteorology, and oceanography courses during the 2012-2013 academic year, during which time formative and summative assessments were administered and used to modify the curricular materials. We will provide an overview of the module's content, instructional strategies involved in implementing the module, and methods of formative and summative assessment. We will also report on lessons learned during the development, piloting, revision, and publishing process, the importance of fostering partnerships between faculty from different institution types, and design approaches that promote widespread adoption of climate curricular materials.

  16. An integrated assessment modeling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change: the MIT IGSM-CAM (version 1.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Sokolov, A. P.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

    2013-12-01

    This paper describes a computationally efficient framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to a human activity model, is linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Since the MIT IGSM-CAM framework (version 1.0) incorporates a human activity model, it is possible to analyze uncertainties in emissions resulting from both uncertainties in the underlying socio-economic characteristics of the economic model and in the choice of climate-related policies. Another major feature is the flexibility to vary key climate parameters controlling the climate system response to changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols concentrations, e.g., climate sensitivity, ocean heat uptake rate, and strength of the aerosol forcing. The IGSM-CAM is not only able to realistically simulate the present-day mean climate and the observed trends at the global and continental scale, but it also simulates ENSO variability with realistic time scales, seasonality and patterns of SST anomalies, albeit with stronger magnitudes than observed. The IGSM-CAM shares the same general strengths and limitations as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models in simulating present-day annual mean surface temperature and precipitation. Over land, the IGSM-CAM shows similar biases to the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 3, which shares the same atmospheric model. This study also presents 21st century simulations based on two emissions scenarios (unconstrained scenario and stabilization scenario at 660 ppm CO2-equivalent) similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and three sets of climate parameters. Results of the simulations with the chosen

  17. Quantitative assessment of integrated phrenic nerve activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, Nicole L; Mitchell, Gordon S

    2016-06-01

    Integrated electrical activity in the phrenic nerve is commonly used to assess within-animal changes in phrenic motor output. Because of concerns regarding the consistency of nerve recordings, activity is most often expressed as a percent change from baseline values. However, absolute values of nerve activity are necessary to assess the impact of neural injury or disease on phrenic motor output. To date, no systematic evaluations of the repeatability/reliability have been made among animals when phrenic recordings are performed by an experienced investigator using standardized methods. We performed a meta-analysis of studies reporting integrated phrenic nerve activity in many rat groups by the same experienced investigator; comparisons were made during baseline and maximal chemoreceptor stimulation in 14 wild-type Harlan and 14 Taconic Sprague Dawley groups, and in 3 pre-symptomatic and 11 end-stage SOD1(G93A) Taconic rat groups (an ALS model). Meta-analysis results indicate: (1) consistent measurements of integrated phrenic activity in each sub-strain of wild-type rats; (2) with bilateral nerve recordings, left-to-right integrated phrenic activity ratios are ∼1.0; and (3) consistently reduced activity in end-stage SOD1(G93A) rats. Thus, with appropriate precautions, integrated phrenic nerve activity enables robust, quantitative comparisons among nerves or experimental groups, including differences caused by neuromuscular disease. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. IkusaSA. Integrated Assessment for Sustainability

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Scholes, RJ

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available , have intended and unintended consequences across a range of important issues. The IkusaSA model system comprises: ? A South African national IAM nested within one or more ?state-of-the-art? global IAMs that predict trade, climate change and human... the country and internationally. The IkusaSA mission is to establish Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) in South Africa. The goal is to put in place the tools for an integrated planning approach and provide effective information sharing mechanisms...

  19. Developmental assessment of RELAP5/MOD3.1 with separate-effect and integral test experiments: model changes and options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Analytis, G.T.

    1996-04-01

    A summary of modifications and options introduced in RELAP5/MOD3.1 (R5M3.1) is presented and it is shown that the predicting capabilities of the modified version of the code are greatly improved, while the general philosophy we followed in arriving at these modifications is also outlined. These changes which are the same ones we implemented in the past in the version 7j of the code, include 2 different heat transfer packages (one of them activated during reflooding), modification of the low mass-flux Groeneveld CHF look-up table and of the dispersed flow interfacial area (and shear) as well as of the criterion for transition into and out from this regime, almost complete elimination of the under-relaxation schemes of the interfacial closure coefficients etc. The modified R5M3.1 code is assessed against a number of separate-effect and integral test experiments and in contrast to the frozen version, is shown to result in physically sound predictions which are much closer to the measurements, while almost all the predicted variables are free of unphysical spurious oscillations. The modifications introduced solve a number of problems associated with the frozen version of the code and result in a version which can be confidently used both for SB-LOCA and LB-LOCA analyses. (author) 7 figs., 20 refs

  20. Integrated Assessment for an Integrated Curriculum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mockrish, Rob

    1989-01-01

    In a sixth grade science classroom for able students, major grades are broken down into four categories: lab reports, projects, creative writing, and written tests. These four components of assessment structure how the curriculum content is presented. (JDD)

  1. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J. [eds.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  2. Integrating uncertainties for climate change mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogelj, Joeri; McCollum, David; Reisinger, Andy; Meinshausen, Malte; Riahi, Keywan

    2013-04-01

    The target of keeping global average temperature increase to below 2°C has emerged in the international climate debate more than a decade ago. In response, the scientific community has tried to estimate the costs of reaching such a target through modelling and scenario analysis. Producing such estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well-known, but ill-quantified uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines. The integrated assessment community, on one side, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs. The climate modelling community, on the other side, has worked on achieving an increasingly better understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty for the cost of mitigation scenarios but has only been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in a rudimentary manner, i.e., for equilibrium conditions. To bridge this gap between the two research communities, we generate distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific temperature limits, taking into account uncertainties in multiple dimensions: geophysical, technological, social and political. In other words, uncertainties resulting from our incomplete knowledge about how the climate system precisely reacts to GHG emissions (geophysical uncertainties), about how society will develop (social uncertainties and choices), which technologies will be available (technological uncertainty and choices), when we choose to start acting globally on climate change (political choices), and how much money we are or are not willing to spend to achieve climate change mitigation. We find that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost-risk distribution, followed by

  3. Uncertainties in Integrated Climate Change Impact Assessments by Sub-setting GCMs Based on Annual as well as Crop Growing Period under Rice Based Farming System of Indo-Gangetic Plains of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillai, S. N.; Singh, H.; Panwar, A. S.; Meena, M. S.; Singh, S. V.; Singh, B.; Paudel, G. P.; Baigorria, G. A.; Ruane, A. C.; McDermid, S.; Boote, K. J.; Porter, C.; Valdivia, R. O.

    2016-12-01

    Integrated assessment of climate change impact on agricultural productivity is a challenge to the scientific community due to uncertainties of input data, particularly the climate, soil, crop calibration and socio-economic dataset. However, the uncertainty due to selection of GCMs is the major source due to complex underlying processes involved in initial as well as the boundary conditions dealt in solving the air-sea interactions. Under Agricultural Modeling Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), the Indo-Gangetic Plains Regional Research Team investigated the uncertainties caused due to selection of GCMs through sub-setting based on annual as well as crop-growth period of rice-wheat systems in AgMIP Integrated Assessment methodology. The AgMIP Phase II protocols were used to study the linking of climate-crop-economic models for two study sites Meerut and Karnal to analyse the sensitivity of current production systems to climate change. Climate Change Projections were made using 29 CMIP5 GCMs under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 during mid-century period (2040-2069). Two crop models (APSIM & DSSAT) were used. TOA-MD economic model was used for integrated assessment. Based on RAPs (Representative Agricultural Pathways), some of the parameters, which are not possible to get through modeling, derived from literature and interactions with stakeholders incorporated into the TOA-MD model for integrated assessment.

  4. Adaptation in integrated assessment modeling: where do we stand?

    OpenAIRE

    Patt, A.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Berkhout, F.G.H.; Aaheim, A.; Hof, A.F.; Isaac, M.; Mechler, R.

    2010-01-01

    Adaptation is an important element on the climate change policy agenda. Integrated assessment models, which are key tools to assess climate change policies, have begun to address adaptation, either by including it implicitly in damage cost estimates, or by making it an explicit control variable. We analyze how modelers have chosen to describe adaptation within an integrated framework, and suggest many ways they could improve the treatment of adaptation by considering more of its bottom-up cha...

  5. Adaptation in integrated assessment modeling: where do we stand?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Patt, A.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Berkhout, F.G.H.; Aaheim, A.; Hof, A.F.; Isaac, M.; Mechler, R.

    2010-01-01

    Adaptation is an important element on the climate change policy agenda. Integrated assessment models, which are key tools to assess climate change policies, have begun to address adaptation, either by including it implicitly in damage cost estimates, or by making it an explicit control variable. We

  6. Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

  7. Assessment of projected temperature impacts from climate change on the U.S. electric power sector using the Integrated Planning Model®

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaglom, Wendy S.; McFarland, James R.; Colley, Michelle F.; Mack, Charlotte B.; Venkatesh, Boddu; Miller, Rawlings L.; Haydel, Juanita; Schultz, Peter A.; Perkins, Bill; Casola, Joseph H.; Martinich, Jeremy A.; Cross, Paul; Kolian, Michael J.; Kayin, Serpil

    2014-01-01

    This study analyzes the potential impacts of changes in temperature due to climate change on the U.S. power sector, measuring the energy, environmental, and economic impacts of power system changes due to temperature changes under two emissions trajectories—with and without emissions mitigation. It estimates the impact of temperature change on heating and cooling degree days, electricity demand, and generating unit output and efficiency. These effects are then integrated into a dispatch and capacity planning model to estimate impacts on investment decisions, emissions, system costs, and power prices for 32 U.S. regions. Without mitigation actions, total annual electricity production costs in 2050 are projected to increase 14% ($51 billion) because of greater cooling demand as compared to a control scenario without future temperature changes. For a scenario with global emissions mitigation, including a reduction in U.S. power sector emissions of 36% below 2005 levels in 2050, the increase in total annual electricity production costs is approximately the same as the increase in system costs to satisfy the increased demand associated with unmitigated rising temperatures. - Highlights: • We model the impact of rising temperatures on the U.S. power sector. • We examine temperature and mitigation impacts on demand, supply, and investment. • Higher temperatures increase power system costs by about $50 billion by the year 2050. • Meeting demand from higher temperatures costs slightly more than reducing emissions. • Mitigation policy cost analyses should account for temperature impacts

  8. Change point analysis and assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Müller, Sabine; Neergaard, Helle; Ulhøi, John Parm

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this article is to develop an analytical framework for studying processes such as continuous innovation and business development in high-tech SME clusters that transcends the traditional qualitative-quantitative divide. It integrates four existing and well-recognized approaches...... to studying events, processes and change, mamely change-point analysis, event-history analysis, critical-incident technique and sequence analysis....

  9. The Integrated Assessment of Land Degradation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Salvati

    Full Text Available This paper reviews recent findings on the complex field of land degradation (LD with focus on the Mediterranean Basin and Italy, in particular. The LD definition and assessment methods are examined in the light of the most important natural and human driving forces of the phenomenon, such as land use and climate changes.Various methodological issues are dealt with from multidisciplinary perspective with the aim of providing the ground for the development of integrated approaches: monitoring needs, assessment of costs, development of mitigation strategies, etc. Factors affecting land vulnerability to degradation are classified into bio-physical and socio-economic drivers with some examples of applications in Italy. The role of determinants such as agricultural development, population growth, and urban sprawl is recognised as important but still ambiguous and thus needs further studies. Based on these findings, policy responses aimed at mitigating LD and thus reducing desertification risk are discussed and methodological proposal are presented.

  10. An integrated simulation method for flash-flood risk assessment: 2. Effects of changes in land-use under a historical perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosso, R.; Rulli, M. C.

    The influence of land use changes on flood occurrence and severity in the Bisagno River (Thyrrenian Liguria, N.W. Italy is investigated using a Monte Carlo simulation approach (Rulli and Rosso, 2002). High resolution land-use maps for the area were reconstructed and scenario simulations were made for a pre-industrial (1878), an intermediate (1930) and a current (1980) year. Land-use effects were explored to assess the consequences of distributed changes in land use due to agricultural practice and urbanisation. Hydraulic conveyance effects were considered, to assess the consequences of channel modifications associated with engineering works in the lower Bisagno River network. Flood frequency analyses of the annual flood series, retrieved from the simulations, were used to examine the effect of land-use change and river conveyance on flood regime. The impact of these effects proved to be negligible in the upper Bisagno River, moderate in the downstream river and severe in the small tributaries in the lower Bisagno valley that drain densely populated urban areas. The simulation approach is shown to be capable of incorporating historical data on landscape and river patterns into quantitative methods for risk assessment.

  11. Global Environmental Change: An integrated modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Den Elzen, M.

    1993-01-01

    Two major global environmental problems are dealt with: climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion (and their mutual interactions), briefly surveyed in part 1. In Part 2 a brief description of the integrated modelling framework IMAGE 1.6 is given. Some specific parts of the model are described in more detail in other Chapters, e.g. the carbon cycle model, the atmospheric chemistry model, the halocarbon model, and the UV-B impact model. In Part 3 an uncertainty analysis of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion is presented (Chapter 4). Chapter 5 briefly reviews the social and economic uncertainties implied by future greenhouse gas emissions. Chapters 6 and 7 describe a model and sensitivity analysis pertaining to the scientific uncertainties and/or lacunae in the sources and sinks of methane and carbon dioxide, and their biogeochemical feedback processes. Chapter 8 presents an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the carbon cycle model, the halocarbon model, and the IMAGE model 1.6 as a whole. Part 4 presents the risk assessment methodology as applied to the problems of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion more specifically. In Chapter 10, this methodology is used as a means with which to asses current ozone policy and a wide range of halocarbon policies. Chapter 11 presents and evaluates the simulated globally-averaged temperature and sea level rise (indicators) for the IPCC-1990 and 1992 scenarios, concluding with a Low Risk scenario, which would meet the climate targets. Chapter 12 discusses the impact of sea level rise on the frequency of the Dutch coastal defence system (indicator) for the IPCC-1990 scenarios. Chapter 13 presents projections of mortality rates due to stratospheric ozone depletion based on model simulations employing the UV-B chain model for a number of halocarbon policies. Chapter 14 presents an approach for allocating future emissions of CO 2 among regions. (Abstract Truncated)

  12. Integrated Assessment of Coastal Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, R. J.

    2016-12-01

    Coastal areas are experiencing change due to a range of natural and human-induced drivers. Of particular concern is climate change, particularly sea-level rise (SLR). In low gradient coastal areas, small changes in water levels can have profound consequences. Hence SLR is rightly considered a major threat. However, to properly diagnose a problem and find sustainable solutions, a systems approach is essential as the impacts of SLR will be modified by the other drivers. This paper will consider these issues from a multi-disciplinary perspective drawing on examples from around the world.

  13. General support for integrated assessment research. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowlatabadi, Hadi

    2001-03-01

    The climate change problem spans an extraordinarily large number of disciplines from earth sciences to social and political sciences. The interaction of processes described by these different fields is why climate change is such a complex issue. Keeping track of these interactions and bringing coherence to the assumptions underlying each disciplinary insight on the climate problem is a massive undertaking. Integrated assessment is an interdisciplinary approach designed to provide systematic evaluations of technically complex problems such as the analysis of environmental change challenges facing humanity. Ph.D. theses stemming from this application are summarized. Then some aspects of Integrated Climate Assessment Models are described.

  14. QT interval correction for drug-induced changes in body temperature during integrated cardiovascular safety assessment in regulatory toxicology studies in dogs: A case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Amrani, Abdel-Ilah; El Amrani-Callens, Francine; Loriot, Stéphane; Singh, Pramila; Forster, Roy

    2016-01-01

    Cardiovascular safety assessment requires accurate evaluation of QT interval, which depends on the length of the cardiac cycle and also on core body temperature (BT). Increases in QT interval duration have been shown to be associated with decreases in BT in dogs. An example of altered QT interval duration associated with changes in body temperature observed during a 4-week regulatory toxicology study in dogs is presented. Four groups of Beagle dogs received the vehicle or test item once on Day 1, followed by a 4-week observation period. Electrocardiogram (ECG) parameters were continuously recorded on Days 1 and 26 by jacketed external telemetry (JET). Core body temperature (BT) was measured with a conventional rectal thermometer at appropriate time-points during the Day 1 recording period. Decreased BT was observed approximately 2h after treatment on Day 1, along with increased QT interval duration corrected according to the Van de Water formula (QTcV), but the effect was no longer observed after correction for changes in BT [QTcVcT=QTcV-14(37.5-BT)] according to the Van der Linde formula. No significant changes in QTcV were reported at the end of the observation period, on Day 26. The present study demonstrates that core body (rectal) temperature can easily be monitored at appropriate time-points during JET recording in regulatory toxicology studies in dogs, in order to correct QT interval duration values for treatment-related changes in BT. The successful application of the Van der Linde formula to correct QTc prolongation for changes in BT was demonstrated. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Global change integrating factors: Tropical tropopause trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reck, R.A.

    1994-01-01

    This research proposes new criteria, shifts in the height and temperature of the tropical tropopause, as measures of global climate change. The search for signs of global warming in the temperature signal near the earth's surface is extremely difficult, largely because numerous factors contribute to surface temperature forcing with only a small signal-to-noise ratio relative to long-term effects. In the long term, no part of the atmosphere can be considered individually because the evolution will be a function of all states of all portions. A large surface greenhouse signal might ultimately be expected, but the analysis of surface temperature may not be particularly useful for early detection. What is suggested here is not an analysis of trends in the surface temperature field or any of its spatial averages, but rather an integrating factor or integrator, a single measure of global change that could be considered a test of significant change for the entire global system. Preferably, this global change integrator would vary slowly and would take into account many of the causes of climate change, with a relatively large signal-to-noise ratio. Such an integrator could be monitored, and abrupt or accelerated changes could serve as an early warning signal for policy makers and the public. Earlier work has suggested that temperature has much less short-term and small-scale noise in the lower stratosphere, and thus the global warming signal at that level might be more easily deconvoluted, because the cooling rate near the 200-mb level is almost constant with latitude. A study of the temperature signal at this pressure level might show a clearer trend due to increased levels of greenhouse gases, but it would yield information about the troposphere only by inference

  16. Climate change: a political assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Keefe, W. [Solutions Consulting (USA)

    2000-07-01

    The paper consists of the author's personal remarks on a political assessment of climate change policy in the United States. The author focuses on four major political forces; environmental organisations, the Clinton-Gore administration, the U.S. senate and the business community. The author considers that much of the climate change debate is scaremongering by the environmentalists with little scientific basis. There is a need for business to present its case better if it is to avoid economically damaging, but unjustified environmental regulations.

  17. Integrating technology in a changing organisation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guillon, O.

    1996-01-01

    The paper relates to integrating technology in a changing organisation of Elf Aquitaine. There is a strong pressure to cut costs and be more effective in the company's operations. A process was initiated in 1994 to re-analyse its E and P (Exploration and Production) research and development (R and D) in order to enhance its alignment with the company assets needs, with a subsequent prioritization of R and D projects. The integration included a strategy for cooperation with other oil and service companies. The author presents the process set up to align the company's R and D program to the business needs of its operations, the various levels of cooperation used, and finally an illustration, in the domain of the geosciences, of the various facets of the ongoing cultural revolution which is required to reach a true integration. 11 figs

  18. Integrated monitoring and assessment of air pollution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hertel, O.

    2009-09-15

    Improved quality, better understanding of processes and optimisation of allocated resources, these are the main advantages of applying Integrated Monitoring and Assessment (IMA) in air quality management. The IMA is defined as the combined use of measurements and model calculations. The use of IMA is demonstrated with examples with different aims: to obtain data for air pollution in urban streets, to assess human exposure to traffic air pollution, and to assess atmospheric deposition of nitrogen compounds to marine and terrestrial ecosystems. (author)

  19. Consideration of environmental change in performance assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinedo, P.; Thorne, M.; Egan, M.; Calvez, M.; Kautsky, U.

    2005-01-01

    Depending on the particular circumstances in which a post-closure performance assessment of a radioactive waste repository is made, it may be appropriate to follow simple or more complex approaches in characterising the biosphere. Several different Example Reference Biospheres were explored in BIOMASS Theme 1 to address a range of issues that arise. Here, consideration is given to Example Reference Biospheres relevant to representing the implications of changes that may occur within the biosphere system during the period over which releases of radionuclides from a disposal facility might take place. Mechanisms of change considered include those extrinsic and intrinsic to the system of interest. An overall methodology for incorporating environmental change into assessments is proposed. This includes screening of primary mechanisms of change; identification of possible time sequences of change; development of a coherent description of the regional landscape response for each time sequence; integration of source term and geosphere-biosphere interface information; identification and description of one or more time series of assessment biospheres; and evaluation of the advantages and disadvantages of simulating the effects of sequences of biosphere systems and the transitions between them, or of defining a set of biosphere systems to be represented individually in a non-sequential analysis. The usefulness of the methodology is explored in two site-specific examples and one generic example

  20. Risk assessment of integrated electronic health records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjornsson, Bjarni Thor; Sigurdardottir, Gudlaug; Stefansson, Stefan Orri

    2010-01-01

    The paper describes the security concerns related to Electronic Health Records (EHR) both in registration of data and integration of systems. A description of the current state of EHR systems in Iceland is provided, along with the Ministry of Health's future vision and plans. New legislation provides the opportunity for increased integration of EHRs and further collaboration between institutions. Integration of systems, along with greater availability and access to EHR data, requires increased security awareness since additional risks are introduced. The paper describes the core principles of information security as it applies to EHR systems and data. The concepts of confidentiality, integrity, availability, accountability and traceability are introduced and described. The paper discusses the legal requirements and importance of performing risk assessment for EHR data. Risk assessment methodology according to the ISO/IEC 27001 information security standard is described with examples on how it is applied to EHR systems.

  1. National parks, ecological integrity and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopoukhine, N.

    1990-01-01

    The potential impacts of climate change on the national parks of Canada are discussed. There is a requirement to protect and manage national parks to maintain a functioning ecosystem with all its parts and processes. An active management regime is necessary, with objectives of ecological diversity/integrity clearly stated. The national parks located in the Canadian Prairie provinces are on or near transitions from forest to tundra and grasslands, and are likely to exhibit the most dramatic changes. The change in vegetation of such parks and in others will not manifest itself simply as a shift of zones but will be accompanied by a flora with new dominants. The boreal forest within the Prairie provinces is fire dependent and has the potential of being transformed into remnant units should post-fire germination be hampered by climatic change. A rapid change in climate would render national parks unable to provide protection of representative elements of Canada's landscapes as presently known. A threefold increase in the area dedicated to protection is a basic component of the sustainable development prescription. All government and private lands dedicated to protection should be forged into a network, to provide core protection for immigrating and emigrating communities and individual species displaced by a changing climate. 20 refs., 2 figs

  2. Integrated Assessment of Carbon Dioxide Removal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rickels, W.; Reith, F.; Keller, D.; Oschlies, A.; Quaas, M. F.

    2018-03-01

    To maintain the chance of keeping the average global temperature increase below 2°C and to limit long-term climate change, removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (carbon dioxide removal, CDR) is becoming increasingly necessary. We analyze optimal and cost-effective climate policies in the dynamic integrated assessment model (IAM) of climate and the economy (DICE2016R) and investigate (1) the utilization of (ocean) CDR under different climate objectives, (2) the sensitivity of policies with respect to carbon cycle feedbacks, and (3) how well carbon cycle feedbacks are captured in the carbon cycle models used in state-of-the-art IAMs. Overall, the carbon cycle model in DICE2016R shows clear improvements compared to its predecessor, DICE2013R, capturing much better long-term dynamics and also oceanic carbon outgassing due to excess oceanic storage of carbon from CDR. However, this comes at the cost of a (too) tight short-term remaining emission budget, limiting the model suitability to analyze low-emission scenarios accurately. With DICE2016R, the compliance with the 2°C goal is no longer feasible without negative emissions via CDR. Overall, the optimal amount of CDR has to take into account (1) the emission substitution effect and (2) compensation for carbon cycle feedbacks.

  3. Assessment of Projected Temperature Impacts from Climate Change on the U.S. Electric Power Sector Using the Integrated Planning Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    The energy sector is considered to be one of the most vulnerable to climate change. This study is a first-order analysis of the potential climate change impacts on the U.S. electric power sector, measuring the energy, environmental, and economic impacts of power system changes du...

  4. Assessment of integrity of structures containing cracks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Townley, C.H.A.

    1976-01-01

    The object of the investigations is to provide a method of assessing the safety and integrity of structures containing cracklike defects. Estimated load at which the cracked structure will fail is compared with the highest load likely to be applied in service

  5. National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program: 1990 Integrated Assessment report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-11-01

    The document, the 'Integrated Assessment,' is a summary of the causes and effects of acidic deposition and a comparison of the costs and effectiveness of alternative emission control scenarios. In developing the 'Integrated Assessment,' it was NAPAP's goal to produce a structured compilation of policy-relevant technical information. The Integrated Assessment is based on findings and data from a series of twenty-seven State-of-Science/Technology Reports (SOS/T) on acidic deposition published by NAPAP in 1990. The scope of the documents includes: (1) emissions, atmospheric processes and deposition; (2) effects on surface waters, forests, agricultural crops, exposed materials, human health, and visibility; and (3) control technologies, future emissions, and effects valuation

  6. An integrated approach to change leadership.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skelton-Green, Judith; Simpson, Beverley; Scott, Julia

    2007-01-01

    Leading change has become one of the essential core competencies of health professionals today. Since 2001, the authors have been the key designers and facilitators of the Dorothy Wylie Nursing Leadership Institute (DMW-NLI). The background, key characteristics and benefits of the DMW-NLI have been described in detail elsewhere (Simpson et al. 2002). One of the Institute's key features is that participants bring a change initiative that they wish to pursue and - during their time on site - we assist them in developing that project to the point where it has a strong chance of success. When we incorporated this aspect into the DMW-NLI program, we believed that opportunity to apply the learning of the Institute to a desired initiative in the home setting would add significant value, not only to the participants, but also to their sponsoring organizations. Further, it was our hope that we could develop a methodology to advance the change initiative, which would be a valuable tool that participants could use in future change projects.As we looked to the literature, we found no shortage of articles on change theory, as well as numerous tools and techniques for project management. However, we did not find one single approach or methodology that we felt was comprehensive yet concise enough to serve as a practical guide for those who wish to advance a change initiative in their practice settings today. Therefore, we developed an integrated conceptual framework and methodology for leading change initiatives, building on selected current and classic theories of change that are relevant today. Both the framework and methodology have proven very hardy, and will, we believe, be of interest to nurse leaders and other health professionals in leadership roles. This paper will provide a brief overview of relevant background literature on leading change initiatives, introduce the DMW-NLI Change Leadership conceptual framework, describe a number of activities that support the

  7. Structural integrity assessment of piping components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kushwaha, H.S.; Chattopadhyay, J.

    2008-01-01

    Integrity assessment of piping components is very essential for safe and reliable operation of power plants. Over the last several decades, considerable work has been done throughout the world to develop a methodology for integrity assessment of pipes and elbows, appropriate for the material involved. However, there is scope of further development/improvement of issues, particularly for pipe bends, that are important for accurate integrity assessment of piping. Considering this aspect, a comprehensive Component Integrity Test Program was initiated in 1998 at Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC), India. In this program, both theoretical and experimental investigations were undertaken to address various issues related to the integrity assessment of pipes and elbows. Under the experimental investigations, fracture mechanics tests have been conducted on pipes and elbows of 200-400 mm nominal bore (NB) diameter with various crack configurations and sizes under different loading conditions. Tests on small tensile and three point bend specimens, machined from the tested pipes, have also been done to evaluate the actual stress-strain and fracture resistance properties of pipe/elbow material. The load-deflection curve and crack initiation loads predicted by non-linear finite element analysis matched well with the experimental results. The theoretical collapse moments of throughwall circumferentially cracked elbows, predicted by the recently developed equations, are found to be closer to the test data compared to the other existing equations. The role of stress triaxialities ahead of crack tip is also shown in the transferability of J-Resistance curve from specimen to component. The cyclic loading and system compliance effect on the load carrying capacity of piping components are investigated and new recommendations are made. (author)

  8. Integrated assessment of future potential global change scenarios and their hydrological impacts in coastal aquifers – a new tool to analyse management alternatives in the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Pulido-Velazquez

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Any change in the components of the water balance in a coastal aquifer, whether natural or anthropogenic, can alter the freshwater–salt water equilibrium. In this sense climate change (CC and land use and land cover (LULC change might significantly influence the availability of groundwater resources in the future. These coastal systems demand an integrated analysis of quantity and quality issues to obtain an appropriate assessment of hydrological impacts using density-dependent flow solutions. The aim of this work is to perform an integrated analysis of future potential global change (GC scenarios and their hydrological impacts in a coastal aquifer, the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer. It is a Mediterranean aquifer that extends over 75 km2 in which important historical LULC changes have been produced and are planned for the future. Future CC scenarios will be defined by using an equi-feasible and non-feasible ensemble of projections based on the results of a multi-criteria analysis of the series generated from several regional climatic models with different downscaling approaches. The hydrological impacts of these CC scenarios combined with future LULC scenarios will be assessed with a chain of models defined by a sequential coupling of rainfall-recharge models, crop irrigation requirements and irrigation return models (for the aquifer and its neighbours that feed it, and a density-dependent aquifer approach. This chain of models, calibrated using the available historical data, allow testing of the conceptual approximation of the aquifer behaviour. They are also fed with series representatives of potential global change scenarios in order to perform a sensitivity analysis regarding future scenarios of rainfall recharge, lateral flows coming from the hydraulically connected neighbouring aquifer, agricultural recharge (taking into account expected future LULC changes and sea level rise (SLR. The proposed analysis is valuable for

  9. Bringing Water into an Integrated Assessment Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Thomson, Allison M.; Sands, Ronald; Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2010-11-30

    We developed a modeling capability to understand how water is allocated within a river basin and examined present and future water allocations among agriculture, energy production, other human requirements, and ecological needs. Water is an essential natural resource needed for food and fiber production, household and industrial uses, energy production, transportation, tourism and recreation, and the functioning of natural ecosystems. Anthropogenic climate change and population growth are anticipated to impose unprecedented pressure on water resources during this century. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) researchers have pioneered the development of integrated assessment (IA) models for the analysis of energy and economic systems under conditions of climate change. This Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) effort led to the development of a modeling capability to evaluate current and future water allocations between human requirements and ecosystem services. The Water Prototype Model (WPM) was built in STELLA®, a computer modeling package with a powerful interface that enables users to construct dynamic models to simulate and integrate many processes (biological, hydrological, economics, sociological). A 150,404-km2 basin in the United States (U.S.) Pacific Northwest region served as the platform for the development of the WPM. About 60% of the study basin is in the state of Washington with the rest in Oregon. The Columbia River runs through the basin for 874 km, starting at the international border with Canada and ending (for the purpose of the simulation) at The Dalles dam. Water enters the basin through precipitation and from streamflows originating from the Columbia River at the international border with Canada, the Spokane River, and the Snake River. Water leaves the basin through evapotranspiration, consumptive uses (irrigation, livestock, domestic, commercial, mining, industrial, and off-stream power generation), and streamflow

  10. Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

  11. A maturity model to assess organisational readiness for change

    OpenAIRE

    Zephir, Olivier; Minel, Stéphanie; Chapotot, Emilie

    2011-01-01

    International audience; The presented model which is developed in a European project allows project management teams to assess the organisational maturity to integrate new practices under structural or technological change. Maturity for change is defined here as workforce capability to operate effectively in transformed processes. This methodology is addressed to tackle organisational readiness to fulfil business objectives through technological and structural improvements. The tool integrate...

  12. Climate change and integrated water resources management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhuiyan, Nurul Amin

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: In the Bangladesh Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRSP), Millennium Development Goals and other donor driven initiatives, two vital areas linked with poverty and ecosystem survival seem to be either missing or are being neglected: (a) transboundary water use and (b) coastal area poverty and critical ecosystems vulnerable due to climate change. Since the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) goals and PRSP are integrated, it is necessary that the countrys WSSD goals and PRSP should also be in harmony. All should give the recognition of Ganges Brahmaputra and Meghna as international basins and the approach should be taken for regional sustainable and integrated water resource management involving all co-riparian countries. The principle of low flow in the international rivers during all seasons should be ensured. All stakeholders should have a say and work towards regional cooperation in the water sector as a top priority. The energy sector should be integrated with water. The Indian River Linking project involving international rivers should be seriously discussed at all levels including the parliament so that voice of Bangladesh is concerted and information shared by all concerned. One of the most critical challenges Bangladesh faces is the management of water resources during periods of water excesses and acute scarcity. It is particularly difficult when only 7% of the catchments areas of the very international rivers, the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna are in Bangladesh while 97% is outside Bangladesh where unfortunately, Bangladesh has no control on upstream diversion and water use. The UN Conference on Environment and Development in its Agenda 21 emphasizes the importance of Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM). The core point of IWRM is that is development of all aspects of entire basin in a basin wide approach, that all relevant agencies of the government and water users must be involved in the planning process and

  13. Assessment of safety culture: Changing regulatory approach in Hungary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ronaky, Jozsef; Toth, Andras

    2002-01-01

    Hungarian Atomic Energy Authority (HAEA) is changing its inspection practice and assessment methods of safety performance and safety culture in operating nuclear facilities. The new approach emphasises integrated team inspection of safety cornerstones and systematic assessment of safety performance of operators. (author)

  14. Office of Integrated Assessment and Policy Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parzyck, D.C.

    1980-01-01

    The mission of the Office of Integrated Assessments and Policy Analysis (OIAPA) is to examine current and future policies related to the development and use of energy technologies. The principal ongoing research activity to date has focused on the impacts of several energy sources, including coal, oil shale, solar, and geothermal, from the standpoint of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act. An additional project has recently been initiated on an evaluation of impacts associated with the implementation of the Toxic Substances Control Act. The impacts of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act and the Toxic Substances Control Act on energy supply constitute the principal research focus of OIAPA for the near term. From these studies a research approach will be developed to identify certain common elements in the regulatory evaluation cycle as a means of evaluating subsequent environmental, health, and socioeconomic impact. It is planned that an integrated assessment team examine studies completed or underway on the following aspects of major regulations: health, risk assessment, testing protocols, environment control cost/benefits, institutional structures, and facility siting. This examination would assess the methodologies used, determine the general applicability of such studies, and present in a logical form information that appears to have broad general application. A suggested action plan for the State of Tennessee on radioactive and hazardous waste management is outlined

  15. Integrated Theory of Health Behavior Change: background and intervention development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, Polly

    2009-01-01

    An essential characteristic of advanced practice nurses is the use of theory in practice. Clinical nurse specialists apply theory in providing or directing patient care, in their work as consultants to staff nurses, and as leaders influencing and facilitating system change. Knowledge of technology and pharmacology has far outpaced knowledge of how to facilitate health behavior change, and new theories are needed to better understand how practitioners can facilitate health behavior change. In this article, the Integrated Theory of Health Behavior Change is described, and an example of its use as foundation to intervention development is presented. The Integrated Theory of Health Behavior Change suggests that health behavior change can be enhanced by fostering knowledge and beliefs, increasing self-regulation skills and abilities, and enhancing social facilitation. Engagement in self-management behaviors is seen as the proximal outcome influencing the long-term distal outcome of improved health status. Person-centered interventions are directed to increasing knowledge and beliefs, self-regulation skills and abilities, and social facilitation. Using a theoretical framework improves clinical nurse specialist practice by focusing assessments, directing the use of best-practice interventions, and improving patient outcomes. Using theory fosters improved communication with other disciplines and enhances the management of complex clinical conditions by providing holistic, comprehensive care.

  16. CALTRANS CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    The following report was developed for the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) to summarize a vulnerability assessment conducted for assets in Caltrans District 4. The assessment was developed to specifically identify the potential eff...

  17. Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Dunham

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

  18. Assessing climate change over the Marche Region (central Italy) from 1951 to 2050: toward an integrated strategy for climate impacts reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sangelantoni, Lorenzo; Russo, Aniello; Marincioni, Fausto; Appiotti, Federica

    2013-04-01

    This study investigates consequences and future impacts of climate change on the social and natural systems of the Marche Region (one of the 20 administrative divisions of Italy). This Region, is located in central part of the peninsula and borders the Adriatic Sea on the East and the Apennine mountains on the West. The Region extends for about 60 km E-W, and has a NW-SE coastline of about 170 km, covering a total area of 9366 km2. Multimodel projections over the Marche Regions, on daily, monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation parameters, have been extracted from the outputs of a set of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) over Europe run by several research institutes participating to the EU ENSEMBLE project. These climate simulations refer to the boundary conditions of the IPCC A1B emission scenario, and have a horizontal resolution of 25km × 25km covering a time period from 1951 to 2050. Results detail a significant increase of daily, monthly and seasonal mean temperatures, especially in summer, with anomaly values reaching +3°C after the year 2025, referring to the model CliNo 1981-2010. Mountain areas show higher values of temperature anomalies than coastal ones of approximately 0.5 °C. Concurrently, a widespread decrease of seasonal precipitation appears to affect all seasons, except for autumn. Rainfall decrease and temperature increase could reduce the Region's aquifer recharge and overall availability of hydro resources. These alterations could affect human health, agricultural productivity, forest fires, coastal erosion, algal blooms and water quality. Ongoing analysis of extreme climatological indices (e.g. frequency of maximum daily temperature exceeding comfort thresholds) are expected to quantify such impacts. A first analysis, linking climate change to the hydrologic cycle, studied through the computation of the hydro-climatic intensity index (as defined by Giorgi et al., 2012), suggests for the Marche Region an increase of the intensity of

  19. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prinn, Ronald [MIT; Webster, Mort [MIT

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  20. Integrity Assessment of GOH Heater Tube

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Bong Sang; Hong, J. H.; Oh, Y. J.; Yoon, J. H.; Oh, J. M. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-08-01

    An assessment of structural integrity of ASTM A312-TP347 GOH heater tube was performed. The surface notches which had been produced during tube manufacturing process were analyzed microscopically. Chemical analysis, hardness tests, tensile tests, and J-Integral fracture resistance tests were carried out to compare the mechanical properties with those of the material specification and also with the other material of the same type. The test results showed the mechanical properties of the GOH tube material are within the specification range. An elastic-plastic fracture mechanics analysis based on the DPFAD method reveals the tube an appropriate safety margin for the normal operation. 13 refs., 5 tabs., 24 figs. (author)

  1. A Multi-Actor Dynamic Integrated Assessment Model (MADIAM)

    OpenAIRE

    Weber, Michael

    2004-01-01

    The interactions between climate and the socio-economic system are investigated with a Multi-Actor Dynamic Integrated Assessment Model (MADIAM) obtained by coupling a nonlinear impulse response model of the climate sub-system (NICCS) to a multi-actor dynamic economic model (MADEM). The main goal is to initiate a model development that is able to treat the dynamics of the coupled climate socio-economic system, including endogenous technological change, in a non-equilibrium situation, thereby o...

  2. Human capital, innovation, and climate policy: An integrated assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica; Tavoni, Massimo

    2012-01-01

    This paper looks at the interplay between human capital and innovation in the presence of climate and educational policies. Using recent empirical estimates, human capital and general purpose R&D are introduced in an integrated assessment model that has been extensively applied to study the climate change mitigation. Our results suggest that climate policy stimulates general purpose as well as clean energy R&D but reduces the incentive to invest in human capital formation. Human capital incre...

  3. Advanced structural integrity assessment procedures. Working material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The purpose of the meeting was to provide an international forum for discussion on recent results in research and utility practice in the field of methodology for the structural integrity assessment of components including relevant non-codified procedures. The scope of the meeting included deterministic and probabilistic approaches. The papers covered the following topics: Leak-before-break concepts; non-destructive examination (NDE) and surveillance results; statistical evaluation of non-destructive examination data; pressurized thermal shock evaluation; fatigue effects (including vibration); and verification qualification. The meeting was attended by 32 specialists from 8 countries. Refs, figs and tabs

  4. A study of reactor vessel integrity assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Jae Hoon [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Taejon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jong Kyung; Shin, Chang Ho; Seo, Bo Kyun [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1999-02-15

    The fast neutron fluence at the Reactor Pressure Vessel(RPV) of KNGR designed for 60 years lifetime was calculated by full-scope Monte Carlo simulation for reactor vessel integrity assessment. KNGR core geometry was modeled on a three-dimensional representation of the one-sixteenth of the reactor in-vessel component. Each fuel assemblies were modeled explicitly, and each fuel pins were axially divided into 5 segments. The maximum flux of 4.3 x 10{sup 10} neutrons/cm{sup 2}. sec at the RPV was obtained by tallying neutrons crossing the beltline of inner surface of the RPV.

  5. Integrated Deterministic-Probabilistic Safety Assessment Methodologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kudinov, P.; Vorobyev, Y.; Sanchez-Perea, M.; Queral, C.; Jimenez Varas, G.; Rebollo, M. J.; Mena, L.; Gomez-Magin, J.

    2014-02-01

    IDPSA (Integrated Deterministic-Probabilistic Safety Assessment) is a family of methods which use tightly coupled probabilistic and deterministic approaches to address respective sources of uncertainties, enabling Risk informed decision making in a consistent manner. The starting point of the IDPSA framework is that safety justification must be based on the coupling of deterministic (consequences) and probabilistic (frequency) considerations to address the mutual interactions between stochastic disturbances (e.g. failures of the equipment, human actions, stochastic physical phenomena) and deterministic response of the plant (i.e. transients). This paper gives a general overview of some IDPSA methods as well as some possible applications to PWR safety analyses. (Author)

  6. Integrated Decision Support for Global Environmental Change Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S.; Cantrell, S.; Higgins, G. J.; Marshall, J.; VanWijngaarden, F.

    2011-12-01

    Environmental changes are happening now that has caused concern in many parts of the world; particularly vulnerable are the countries and communities with limited resources and with natural environments that are more susceptible to climate change impacts. Global leaders are concerned about the observed phenomena and events such as Amazon deforestation, shifting monsoon patterns affecting agriculture in the mountain slopes of Peru, floods in Pakistan, water shortages in Middle East, droughts impacting water supplies and wildlife migration in Africa, and sea level rise impacts on low lying coastal communities in Bangladesh. These environmental changes are likely to get exacerbated as the temperatures rise, the weather and climate patterns change, and sea level rise continues. Large populations and billions of dollars of infrastructure could be affected. At Northrop Grumman, we have developed an integrated decision support framework for providing necessary information to stakeholders and planners to adapt to the impacts of climate variability and change at the regional and local levels. This integrated approach takes into account assimilation and exploitation of large and disparate weather and climate data sets, regional downscaling (dynamic and statistical), uncertainty quantification and reduction, and a synthesis of scientific data with demographic and economic data to generate actionable information for the stakeholders and decision makers. Utilizing a flexible service oriented architecture and state-of-the-art visualization techniques, this information can be delivered via tailored GIS portals to meet diverse set of user needs and expectations. This integrated approach can be applied to regional and local risk assessments, predictions and decadal projections, and proactive adaptation planning for vulnerable communities. In this paper we will describe this comprehensive decision support approach with selected applications and case studies to illustrate how this

  7. Patterns of Resistance in Managing Assessment Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deneen, Christopher; Boud, David

    2014-01-01

    Achieving change in assessment practices in higher education is difficult. One of the reasons for this is resistance among those responsible for teaching and assessing. This paper seeks to explore this resistance through an analysis of staff dialogue during a major attempt to change the assessment practices at one institution. An institution-wide…

  8. Cyber/Physical Security Vulnerability Assessment Integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacDonald, Douglas G.; Key, Brad; Clements, Samuel L.; Hutton, William J.; Craig, Philip A.; Patrick, Scott W.; Crawford, Cary E.

    2011-01-01

    This internally funded Laboratory-Directed R and D project by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, in conjunction with QinetiQ North America, is intended to identify and properly assess areas of overlap (and interaction) in the vulnerability assessment process between cyber security and physical protection. Existing vulnerability analysis (VA) processes and software tools exist, and these are heavily utilized in the determination of predicted vulnerability within the physical and cyber security domains. These determinations are normally performed independently of one another, and only interact on a superficial level. Both physical and cyber security subject matter experts have come to realize that though the various interactive elements exist, they are not currently quantified in most periodic security assessments. This endeavor aims to evaluate both physical and cyber VA techniques and provide a strategic approach to integrate the interdependent relationships of each into a single VA capability. This effort will also transform the existing suite of software currently utilized in the physical protection world to more accurately quantify the risk associated with a blended attack scenario. Performance databases will be created to support the characterization of the cyber security elements, and roll them into prototype software tools. This new methodology and software capability will enable analysts to better identify and assess the overall risk during a vulnerability analysis.

  9. Coupled impacts of climate and land use change across a river-lake continuum: insights from an integrated assessment model of Lake Champlain’s Missisquoi Basin, 2000-2040

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zia, Asim; Bomblies, Arne; Schroth, Andrew W.; Koliba, Christopher; Isles, Peter D. F.; Tsai, Yushiou; Mohammed, Ibrahim N.; Bucini, Gabriela; Clemins, Patrick J.; Turnbull, Scott; Rodgers, Morgan; Hamed, Ahmed; Beckage, Brian; Winter, Jonathan; Adair, Carol; Galford, Gillian L.; Rizzo, Donna; Van Houten, Judith

    2016-11-01

    Global climate change (GCC) is projected to bring higher-intensity precipitation and higher-variability temperature regimes to the Northeastern United States. The interactive effects of GCC with anthropogenic land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) are unknown for watershed level hydrological dynamics and nutrient fluxes to freshwater lakes. Increased nutrient fluxes can promote harmful algal blooms, also exacerbated by warmer water temperatures due to GCC. To address the complex interactions of climate, land and humans, we developed a cascading integrated assessment model to test the impacts of GCC and LULCC on the hydrological regime, water temperature, water quality, bloom duration and severity through 2040 in transnational Lake Champlain’s Missisquoi Bay. Temperature and precipitation inputs were statistically downscaled from four global circulation models (GCMs) for three Representative Concentration Pathways. An agent-based model was used to generate four LULCC scenarios. Combined climate and LULCC scenarios drove a distributed hydrological model to estimate river discharge and nutrient input to the lake. Lake nutrient dynamics were simulated with a 3D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model. We find accelerated GCC could drastically limit land management options to maintain water quality, but the nature and severity of this impact varies dramatically by GCM and GCC scenario.

  10. Integrated Assessment of Prevention and Restoration Actions to Combat Desertification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bautista, S.; Orr, B. J.; Vallejo, R.

    2009-12-01

    America (Chile, Mexico, and USA). PRACTICE integrated assessment protocol (IAPro) assumes the mutual human-environment interactions in land-use/cover change at multiple scales, and therefore adopts an integrated approach, which simultaneously considers both biophysical and socio-economic attributes, for assessing actions to combat desertification. IAPro mostly relies on critical slow variables and particularly exploits long-term monitoring data. Integration of biophysical and socio-economic assessment indicators and stakeholder preferences is based on a participatory multi-criteria decision making process. The process is iterative and provides a framework for knowledge exchange and a path to consensus building.

  11. Positional Accuracy Assessment for Effective Shoreline Change ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael

    2016-06-01

    Jun 1, 2016 ... as backdrop in GIS environment. Positional error of ... integrated dataset obviously bore the cumulative effect of the input datasets. ... change. The shoreline, which is the interface between land ... modelling, which enables future shoreline change trend to ..... as gaps due to cloud cover and limitation of the.

  12. Integrity assessment of a storage tank

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goncalves, Osorio Correa; Santos, Jose Henrique Gomes dos; Carvalho, Alexis Fernandes [PETROBRAS Transporte S.A. (TRANSPETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2005-07-01

    In the last internal inspection of a 5000 bbl freshwater storage tank located in a shipping terminal, widespread pitting corrosion was detected on the shell courses. In some of these pits, its depth was such that the remaining thickness was bellow the minimum thickness required according to the design code. Nevertheless, this approach is overly conservative since it does not consider the pits size, depth and spacing. Thanks to advances in stress analysis, new tools are available for the evaluation of damaged equipment widely employed in the oil industry such as pressure vessels, piping and storage tanks. In the present work, the authors present the integrity assessment performed on this tank using the Fitness for Service approach using the methods and procedures contained in the document API RP 579 (Fitness-for-service). (author)

  13. Integrating Occupational Therapy Specific Assessments in Practice: Exploring Practitioner Experiences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Asaba

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Occupational therapists sometimes find it challenging to integrate client-centered and occupational therapy specific assessments in practice. The aim of this study was to explore the use of occupational therapy specific assessments such as the Assessment of Motor and Process Skills (AMPS among occupational therapists in Sweden and Japan. Methods. Interviews and qualitative thematic analyses were utilized. Findings. Four themes are reported: (1 use it or lose it, (2 simply no space until after hours, (3 biggest barriers can be colleagues, and (4 being more specific: communication. Conclusion. In keeping with previous studies, occupational therapists often find it challenging to implement client-centered and occupation-based assessment tools into practice. However, more work is needed to understand how best practices can be incorporated into a changing occupational therapy daily practice.

  14. Integration and change management for successful mergers; Integration und Change Management bei Fusionen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wolf, H.G. [Arthur Andersen Business Consulting GmbH, Duesseldorf (Germany)

    2000-05-01

    In the wake of deregulation of the energy markets in Germany, energy companies and electric utilities are confronted with fierce competition on prices and customers. The change of paradigms in the German energy industry calls for new strategies. The article discusses strategic alliances and mergers as one way to cope with the challenges, and explains suitable and proven approaches for corporate integration and change management. (CB) [German] Seit der wettbewerblichen Oeffnung des deutschen Energiemarktes sehen sich die Unternehmen mit einem dramatischen Preis- und Marketingwettbewerb konfrontiert. Aggressive neue Akteure draengen in die lukrativen Maerkte. Aber auch etablierte Teilnehmer suchen neue strategische Positionen und beschleunigen den Paradigmenwechsel in der deutschen Energiewirtschaft. Angesichts dieser Marktentwicklung bestehen massive Anforderungen zur Veraenderung. Unternehmenszusammenschluesse und Kooperationen stellen eine geeignete strategische Reaktion zur Bewaeltigung dieser Herausforderungen dar. Dabei sollten die Risiken von Fusionen nicht unterschaetzt werden. Die meisten Vorhaben scheitern auf Grund fehlender Integrationsprozesse. Ein systematischer Integrationsansatz wird beschrieben. (orig./CB)

  15. HANFORD Pu-238 DRUM INTEGRITY ASSESSMENT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    CANNELL, G.R.

    2004-01-01

    Hanford is presently retrieving contact-handled, transuranic (CH-TRU) waste drums from the site's Low-Level Burial Grounds (LLBG) for processing and disposition. A subgroup of these drums (12 total), referred to as Pu-238 drums, has some unique characteristics that may impact the current drum handling and processing activities. These characteristics include content, shielding, thermal, pressurization and criticality issues. An effort to evaluate these characteristics, for the purpose of developing a specific plan for safe retrieval of the Pu-238 drums, is underway. In addition to the above evaluation, the following integrity assessment of the inner container material and/or confinement properties, with primary emphasis on the Source Capsule (primary confinement barrier) and Shipping Container has been performed. Assessment included review of the inner container materials and the potential impact the service history may have had on material and/or confinement properties. Several environmental degradation mechanisms were considered with the objective of answering the following question: Is it likely the container material and/or confinement properties have been significantly altered as a result of service history?

  16. Integrated watershed analysis: adapting to changing times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon H. Reeves

    2013-01-01

    Resource managers are increasingly required to conduct integrated analyses of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems before undertaking any activities. Th ere are a number of research studies on the impacts of management actions on these ecosystems, as well as a growing body of knowledge about ecological processes that aff ect them, particularly aquatic ecosystems, which...

  17. Climate change vulnerability assessment in Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binita KC; J. Marshall Shepherd; Cassandra Johnson Gaither

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is occurring in the Southeastern United States, and one manifestation is changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events. A vulnerability assessment is performed in the state of Georgia (United States) at the county level from 1975 to 2012 in decadal increments. Climate change vulnerability is typically measured as a function of exposure to physical...

  18. Climate Change in Environmental Impact Assessment of Renewable Energy Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2012-01-01

    Many renewable energy projects are subject to EIA. However a question that surfaces is what use an impact assessment is when the project is ‘good for the environment’? One of the current topics receiving much attention in impact assessment is climate change and how this factor is integrated...... in impact assessments. This warrants the question: How do we assess the climate change related impacts of a project that inherently has a positive effect on climate? This paper is based on a document study of EIA reports from Denmark. The results show that climate change is included in most of the EIA...... reports reviewed, and that only climate change mitigation is in focus while adaptation is absent. Also the results point to focus on positive impacts, while the indirect negative impacts are less apparent. This leads to a discussion of the results in the light of the purpose of EIA....

  19. Clear Channel Assessment in Integrated Medical Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Zhen

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Complementary WLAN and WPAN technologies as well as other wireless technologies will play a fundamental role in the medical environments to support ubiquitous healthcare delivery. This paper investigates clear channel assessment (CCA and its impact on the coexistence of WLAN (IEEE 802.11 high rate direct sequence spread spectrum (HR/DSSS PHY and WPAN (IEEE 802.15.4b in the 2.4 GHz industrial, scientific, and medical (ISM band. We derived closed-form expressions of both energy-based CCA and feature-based CCA. We qualified unequal sensing abilities between them and termed this inequality asymmetric CCA, which is different from the traditional “hidden node” or “exposed node” issues in the homogeneous network. The energy-based CCA was considered in the considered integrated medical environment because the 2.4 GHz ISM band is too crowded to apply feature-based CCA. The WPAN is oversensitive to the 802.11 HR/DSSS signals and the WLAN is insensitive to the 802.15.4b signals. Choosing an optimal CCA threshold requires some prior knowledge of the underlying signals. In the integrated medical environment we considered here, energy-based CCA can effectively avoid possible packet collisions when they are close within the “heterogeneous exclusive CCA range” (HECR. However, when they are separated beyond the HECR, WPAN can still sense the 802.11 HR/DSSS signals, but WLAN loses its sense to the 802.15.4b signals. The asymmetric CCA leads to WPAN traffic in a position secondary to WLAN traffic.

  20. Clear Channel Assessment in Integrated Medical Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hara Shinsuke

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Complementary WLAN and WPAN technologies as well as other wireless technologies will play a fundamental role in the medical environments to support ubiquitous healthcare delivery. This paper investigates clear channel assessment (CCA and its impact on the coexistence of WLAN (IEEE 802.11 high rate direct sequence spread spectrum (HR/DSSS PHY and WPAN (IEEE 802.15.4b in the 2.4 GHz industrial, scientific, and medical (ISM band. We derived closed-form expressions of both energy-based CCA and feature-based CCA. We qualified unequal sensing abilities between them and termed this inequality asymmetric CCA, which is different from the traditional "hidden node" or "exposed node" issues in the homogeneous network. The energy-based CCA was considered in the considered integrated medical environment because the 2.4 GHz ISM band is too crowded to apply feature-based CCA. The WPAN is oversensitive to the 802.11 HR/DSSS signals and the WLAN is insensitive to the 802.15.4b signals. Choosing an optimal CCA threshold requires some prior knowledge of the underlying signals. In the integrated medical environment we considered here, energy-based CCA can effectively avoid possible packet collisions when they are close within the "heterogeneous exclusive CCA range" (HECR. However, when they are separated beyond the HECR, WPAN can still sense the 802.11 HR/DSSS signals, but WLAN loses its sense to the 802.15.4b signals. The asymmetric CCA leads to WPAN traffic in a position secondary to WLAN traffic.

  1. Integrated Environmental Assessment Part III: ExposureAssessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McKone, Thomas E.; Small, Mitchell J.

    2006-06-01

    Human exposure assessment is a key step in estimating the environmental and public health burdens that result chemical emissions in the life cycle of an industrial product or service. This column presents the third in a series of overviews of the state of the art in integrated environmental assessment - earlier columns described emissions estimation (Frey and Small, 2003) and fate and transport modeling (Ramaswami, et al., 2004). When combined, these first two assessment elements provide estimates of ambient concentrations in the environment. Here we discuss how both models and measurements are used to translate ambient concentrations into metrics of human and ecological exposure, the necessary precursors to impact assessment. Exposure assessment is the process of measuring and/or modeling the magnitude, frequency and duration of contact between a potentially harmful agent and a target population, including the size and characteristics of that population (IPCS, 2001; Zartarian, et al., 2005). Ideally the exposure assessment process should characterize the sources, routes, pathways, and uncertainties in the assessment. Route of exposure refers to the way that an agent enters the receptor during an exposure event. Humans contact pollutants through three routes--inhalation, ingestion, and dermal uptake. Inhalation occurs in both outdoor environments and indoor environments where most people spend the majority of their time. Ingestion includes both water and food, as well as soil and dust uptake due to hand-to-mouth activity. Dermal uptake occurs through contacts with consumer products; indoor and outdoor surfaces; the water supply during washing or bathing; ambient surface waters during swimming or boating; soil during activities such as work, gardening, and play; and, to a lesser extent, from the air that surrounds us. An exposure pathway is the course that a pollutant takes from an ambient environmental medium (air, soil, water, biota, etc), to an exposure medium

  2. The role of computer modelling in participatory integrated assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siebenhuener, Bernd; Barth, Volker

    2005-01-01

    In a number of recent research projects, computer models have been included in participatory procedures to assess global environmental change. The intention was to support knowledge production and to help the involved non-scientists to develop a deeper understanding of the interactions between natural and social systems. This paper analyses the experiences made in three projects with the use of computer models from a participatory and a risk management perspective. Our cross-cutting analysis of the objectives, the employed project designs and moderation schemes and the observed learning processes in participatory processes with model use shows that models play a mixed role in informing participants and stimulating discussions. However, no deeper reflection on values and belief systems could be achieved. In terms of the risk management phases, computer models serve best the purposes of problem definition and option assessment within participatory integrated assessment (PIA) processes

  3. Integrated assessment, water resources, and science-policy communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davies, E.G.R.; Akhtar, M.K.; McBean, G.A.; Simonovic, S.P.

    2009-01-01

    Traditional climate change modeling neglects the role of feedbacks between different components of society-biosphere-climate system. Yet, such interconnections are critical. This paper describes an alternative, Integrated Assessment (IA) model that focuses on feedbacks not only within individual elements of the society-biosphere-climate system, but also on their interconnections. The model replicates the relevant dynamics of nine components of the society-biosphere- climate system at the sectoral, or single-component, level: climate, carbon cycle, hydrological cycle, water demand, water quality, population, land use, energy and economy. The paper discusses the role of the model in science-policy dialogue. (author)

  4. Assessment of reactor vessel integrity (ARVI)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sehgal, B.R. E-mail: sehgal@ne.kth.se; Theerthan, A.; Giri, A.; Karbojian, A.; Willschuetz, H.G.; Kymaelaeinen, O.; Vandroux, S.; Bonnet, J.M.; Seiler, J.M.; Ikkonen, K.; Sairanen, R.; Bhandari, S.; Buerger, M.; Buck, M.; Widmann, W.; Dienstbier, J.; Techy, Z.; Kostka, P.; Taubner, R.; Theofanous, T.; Dinh, T.N

    2003-04-01

    The cost-shared project ARVI (assessment of reactor vessel integrity) involves a total of nine organisations from Europe and USA. The objective of the ARVI Project is to resolve the safety issues that remain unresolved for the melt vessel interaction phase of the in-vessel progression of a severe accident. The work consists of experiments and analysis development. Four tests were performed in the EC-FOREVER Programme, in which failure was achieved in-vessels employing the French pressure vessel steel. The tests were analysed with the commercial code ANSYS-Multiphysics, and the codes SYSTUS+ and PASULA, and quite good agreement was achieved for the failure location. Natural convection experiments in stratified pools have been performed in the SIMECO and the COPO facilities, which showed that much greater heat is transferred downwards for immiscible layers or before layers mix. A model for gap cooling and a set of simplified models for the system codes have been developed. MVITA code calculations have been performed for the Czech and Hungarian VVERs, towards evaluation of the in-vessel melt retention accident management scheme. Tests have been performed at the ULPU facility with organised flow for vessel external cooling. Considerable enhancement of the critical heat flux (CHF) was obtained. The ARVI Project has reached the halfway stage. This paper presents the results obtained thus far from the project.

  5. Integration of environmental flow assessment and freshwater conservation planning: a new era in catchment management

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Nel, JL

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Integrated water resources management offers an ideal platform for addressing the goals of freshwater conservation and climate change adaptation. Environmental flow assessment and systematic conservation planning have evolved separately...

  6. Tree Simulation Techniques for Integrated Safety Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melendez Asensio, E.; Izquierdo Rocha, J.M.; Sanchez Perez, M.; Hortal Reymundo, J.; Perez Mulas, A.

    1999-01-01

    In the development of a PSA a central role is played by the construction of the event trees that, stemming from each initiating event considered, will finally lead to the calculation of the core damage frequency (CDF). This construction is extensively done by means of expert judgement, performing simulation of the sequences only when some doubt arises (typically for small break LOCAs) using integrated codes. Transient analysis done within the framework of the PSA has important simplifications that affect the transient simulation, specially in relation with the control and protection systems, and may not identify complicated sequences. Specialised simulation tools such as RELAP5 have been used only at very specific points of the PSAs due to time and model complexity constraints. On the other hand, a large amount of work and expertise has been laid in the development of simulation tools, independently of the PSA effort. Tools simplified in the phenomena they consider, but complete in the treatment of automatic and manual control and protection systems are now available for automatic generation and testing of the sequences appearing in the Event Trees. Additionally, an increasing effort and interest has been spent in the development of efficient means for the representation of the Emergency Operating Procedures, which, incorporated into the simulating tool would make a more realistic picture of the real plant performance. At present; both types of analyses - transient and probabilistic - can converge to be able to dynamically generate an Event Tree while taking into account the actual performance of the control and protection systems of the plant and the operator actions. Such a tool would allow for an assessment of the Event Trees, and, if fed with probabilistic data, can provide results of the same nature. Key aspects of this approach that imply new theoretical as well as practical developments in addition to those traditionally covered by classical simulation

  7. Integration and Typologies of Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australian Wheat Sheep Zones

    OpenAIRE

    Jianjun Huai

    2016-01-01

    Although the integrated indicator methods have become popular for assessing vulnerability to climate change, their proliferation has introduced a confusing array of scales and indicators that cause a science-policy gap. I argue for a clear adaptation pathway in an ?integrative typology? of regional vulnerability that matches appropriate scales, optimal measurements and adaptive strategies in a six-dimensional and multi-level analysis framework of integration and typology inspired by the ?5W1H...

  8. DEEPENING SERVICES MARKET INTEGRATION - A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacques Pelkmans

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available The greatest asset of the European Union is undoubtedly its internal market. However, the internal market is not completed: it suffers from a giant hole with respect to many services. The present contribution addresses the status of services in the internal market and, in particular, the horizontal liberalisation (or, the lack of it of services outside the two large sectors which greatly deepened market integration (6 modes of transport and 3 financial services markets. Because a horizontal perspective on services in the EU is still little understood, it is briefly summarized what services really are and how their regulatory logic in the internal market can help to classify them. The (strong economic case for deepening services market integration is built on recent empirical economic analysis as well as simulation. This is followed by a discussion, with flowchart, of the Bolkestein draft directive, against the backdrop of the frustrating lack of, or at best, selective progress on services for decades. A survey of economic impact studies of the draft directive is provided, too, underpinning its importance even when the infamous origin principle is taken out. Some light is subsequently shed on the tumultuous politicisation of the services debate. Emphasis is laid on the socio-economic context (which, it is submitted, sharpened the discussion at times into polarisation and a series of other factors such as the diversity of the national regulatory frameworks of services and the labour employed, the complexity of the draft directive, the potentially radical nature of the origin principle (especially for those not aware of the case law of the ECJ, the dominant role of the EP and the opportunism of leading national politicians. Finally, directive 2006/123 –meanwhile in force – is explained and briefly assessed. Apart from the conspicuous manifestation of 'Angst' in drafting the directive, the (de merits are set out. The conclusion is that a badly

  9. Climate change vulnerability for species-Assessing the assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheatley, Christopher J; Beale, Colin M; Bradbury, Richard B; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Critchlow, Rob; Thomas, Chris D

    2017-09-01

    Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate-threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend-based rather than purely trait-based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Assessment of reactor vessel integrity (ARVI)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sehgal, B.R. [Division of Nuclear Power Safety (NPS), Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Drottning Kristinas Vaeg 33A, 10044 Stockholm (Sweden)]. E-mail: sehgal@ne.kth.se; Karbojian, A. [Division of Nuclear Power Safety (NPS), Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Drottning Kristinas Vaeg 33A, 10044 Stockholm (Sweden); Giri, A. [Division of Nuclear Power Safety (NPS), Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Drottning Kristinas Vaeg 33A, 10044 Stockholm (Sweden); Kymaelaeinen, O. [FortumEngNP (Finland); Bonnet, J.M. [CEA (France); Ikkonen, K. [Division of Nuclear Power Safety (NPS), Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Drottning Kristinas Vaeg 33A, 10044 Stockholm (Sweden); Sairanen, R. [VTT (Finland); Bhandari, S. [FRAMATOME (France); Buerger, M. [USTUTT (Germany); Dienstbier, J. [NRI Rez (Czech Republic); Techy, Z. [VEIKI (Hungary); Theofanous, T. [UCSB (United States)

    2005-02-01

    The assessment of reactor vessel integrity (ARVI) project involved a total of nine organizations from Europe and USA. The work consisted of experiments and analysis development. The modeling activities in the area of structural analyses were focused on the support of EC-FOREVER experiments as well as on the exploitation of the data obtained from those experiments for modeling of creep deformation and the validation of the industry structural codes. Work was also performed for extension of melt natural convection analyses to consideration of stratification, and mixing (in the CFD codes). Other modeling activities were for (1) gap cooling CHF and (2) developing simple models for system code. Finally, the methodology and data was applied for the design of IVMR severe accident management scheme for VVER-440/213 plants. The work was broken up into five packages. They were divided into tasks, which were performed by different partners. The major experimental project continued was EC-FOREVER in which data was obtained on in-vessel melt pool coolability. In previous EC-FOREVER experiments data was obtained on melt pool natural convection and lower head creep failure and rupture. Those results obtained were related to the following issues: (1) multiaxial creep laws for different vessel steels (2) effects of penetrations, and (3) mode and location of lower head failure. The two EC-FOREVER tests reported here are related to (a) the effectiveness of gap cooling and (b) water ingression for in vessel melt coolability. Two other experimental projects were also conducted. One was the COPO experiments, which was concerned with the effects of stratification and metal layer on the thermal loads on the lower head wall during melt pool convection. The second experimental project was conducted at ULPU facility, which provided data and correlations of CHF due to the external cooling of the lower head.

  11. Lifestyle Assessment: Helping Patients Change Health Behaviors

    OpenAIRE

    Ciliska, Donna; Wilson, Douglas M. C.

    1984-01-01

    This article is the second in a series of six on lifestyle assessment and behavior change. The first article presented an assessment tool called FANTASTIC, which has been tested for reliability and is currently in wide use. After assessment, family physicians must help patients decide to change—and give them guidance on how to change—unhealthy behaviors. This article explains how the family physician can use educational, behavioral and relaxation strategies to increase patients' motivation, m...

  12. Developing methodology and tools for integrated assessment of the risks of global environmental change: Analyzing uncertainty, risk assessment, risk perception, expert judgment, and a case study on sea level rise. Report of collaborative research, July 1991--June 1993: Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lancaster, J.; Shlyakhter, A.; Wilson, R.

    1993-01-01

    Members of Congress, federal administrators, state regulators, city planners, corporate strategists and private citizens face decisions that may or may not warrant considering the potential impacts of climate change. The extent to which the global warming issue will weigh in these many decisions will be determined by (a) expert scientific judgement about global warming and its potential impacts, (b) public perception of the global warming problem, (c) uncertainties, and (d) other legal and political factors controlling the entry of a large-scale environmental issue into many avenues of decision making. The complexity and uncertainty surrounding the problem of climate change present new challenges to our ability to formulate rational decisions. The authors provide a methodical approach to characterizing the risks of global warming in a way that will be useful to decision makers

  13. Integrative change model in psychotherapy: Perspectives from Indian thought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manickam, L S S

    2013-01-01

    Different psychotherapeutic approaches claim positive changes in patients as a result of therapy. Explanations related to the change process led to different change models. Some of the change models are experimentally oriented whereas some are theoretical. Apart from the core models of behavioral, psychodynamic, humanistic, cognitive and spiritually oriented models there are specific models, within psychotherapy that explains the change process. Integrative theory of a person as depicted in Indian thought provides a common ground for the integration of various therapies. Integrative model of change based on Indian thought, with specific reference to psychological concepts in Upanishads, Ayurveda, Bhagavad Gita and Yoga are presented. Appropriate psychological tools may be developed in order to help the clinicians to choose the techniques that match the problem and the origin of the dimension. Explorations have to be conducted to develop more techniques that are culturally appropriate and clinically useful. Research has to be initiated to validate the identified concepts.

  14. A Theory of Change for Student-Led Academic Integrity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Deborah; Saddiqui, Sonia; White, Fiona; McGuigan, Nicholas; Homewood, Judi

    2016-01-01

    Breaches in academic integrity are a pervasive and enduring international concern to the overall quality of higher education. Despite students being the group most affected by academic integrity policies, organisational culture is such that students tend to be passive recipients of change initiatives, rather than the drivers. To deliver a paradigm…

  15. Assessing species vulnerability to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacifici, Michela; Foden, Wendy B.; Visconti, Piero; Watson, James E. M.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Kovacs, Kit M.; Scheffers, Brett R.; Hole, David G.; Martin, Tara G.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Corlett, Richard T.; Huntley, Brian; Bickford, David; Carr, Jamie A.; Hoffmann, Ary A.; Midgley, Guy F.; Pearce-Kelly, Paul; Pearson, Richard G.; Williams, Stephen E.; Willis, Stephen G.; Young, Bruce; Rondinini, Carlo

    2015-03-01

    The effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly well documented, and many methods have been developed to assess species' vulnerability to climatic changes, both ongoing and projected in the coming decades. To minimize global biodiversity losses, conservationists need to identify those species that are likely to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this Review, we summarize different currencies used for assessing species' climate change vulnerability. We describe three main approaches used to derive these currencies (correlative, mechanistic and trait-based), and their associated data requirements, spatial and temporal scales of application and modelling methods. We identify strengths and weaknesses of the approaches and highlight the sources of uncertainty inherent in each method that limit projection reliability. Finally, we provide guidance for conservation practitioners in selecting the most appropriate approach(es) for their planning needs and highlight priority areas for further assessments.

  16. Fish habitat simulation models and integrated assessment tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harby, A.; Alfredsen, K.

    1999-01-01

    Because of human development water use increases in importance, and this worldwide trend is leading to an increasing number of user conflicts with a strong need for assessment tools to measure the impacts both on the ecosystem and the different users and user groups. The quantitative tools must allow a comparison of alternatives, different user groups, etc., and the tools must be integrated while impact assessments includes different disciplines. Fish species, especially young ones, are indicators of the environmental state of a riverine system and monitoring them is a way to follow environmental changes. The direct and indirect impacts on the ecosystem itself are measured, and impacts on user groups is not included. Fish habitat simulation models are concentrated on, and methods and examples are considered from Norway. Some ideas on integrated modelling tools for impact assessment studies are included. One dimensional hydraulic models are rapidly calibrated and do not require any expert knowledge in hydraulics. Two and three dimensional models require a bit more skilled users, especially if the topography is very heterogeneous. The advantages of using two and three dimensional models include: they do not need any calibration, just validation; they are predictive; and they can be more cost effective than traditional habitat hydraulic models when combined with modern data acquisition systems and tailored in a multi-disciplinary study. Suitable modelling model choice should be based on available data and possible data acquisition, available manpower, computer, and software resources, and needed output and accuracy in the output. 58 refs

  17. Integrated approach to assess ecosystem health in harbor areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bebianno, M J; Pereira, C G; Rey, F; Cravo, A; Duarte, D; D'Errico, G; Regoli, F

    2015-05-01

    Harbors are critical environments with strategic economic importance but with potential environmental impact: health assessment criteria are a key issue. An ecosystem health status approach was carried out in Portimão harbor as a case-study. Priority and specific chemical levels in sediments along with their bioavailability in mussels, bioassays and a wide array of biomarkers were integrated in a biomarker index (IBR index) and the overall data in a weight of evidence (WOE) model. Metals, PAHs, PCBs and HCB were not particularly high compared with sediment guidelines and standards for dredging. Bioavailability was evident for Cd, Cu and Zn. Biomarkers proved more sensitive namely changes of antioxidant responses, metallothioneins and vittellogenin-like proteins. IBR index indicated that site 4 was the most impacted area. Assessment of the health status by WOE approach highlighted the importance of integrating sediment chemistry, bioaccumulation, biomarkers and bioassays and revealed that despite some disturbance in the harbor area, there was also an impact of urban effluents from upstream. Environmental quality assessment in harbors. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Successfully Integrating Climate Change Education into School System Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scallion, M.

    2017-12-01

    Maryland's Eastern Shore is threatened by climate change driven sea level rise. By working with school systems, rather than just with individual teachers, educators can gain access to an entire grade level of students, assuring that all students, regardless of socioeconomic background or prior coursework have an opportunity to explore the climate issue and be part of crafting community level solutions for their communities. We will address the benefits of working with school system partners to achieve a successful integration of in-school and outdoor learning by making teachers and administrators part of the process. We will explore how, through the Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment, and Research Project, teachers, content supervisors and informal educators worked together to create a climate curriculum with local context that effectively meets Common Core and Next Generation Science Standards. Over the course of several weeks during the year, students engage in a series of in-class and field activities directly correlated with their science curriculum. Wetlands and birds are used as examples of the local wildlife and habitat being impacted by climate change. Through these lessons led by Pickering Creek Audubon Center educators and strengthened by material covered by classroom teachers, students get a thorough introduction to the mechanism of climate change, local impacts of climate change on habitats and wildlife, and actions they can take as a community to mitigate the effects of climate change. The project concludes with a habitat and carbon stewardship project that gives students and teachers a sense of hope as they tackle this big issue on a local scale. We'll explore how the MADE-CLEAR Informal Climate Change Education (ICCE) Community of Practice supports Delaware and Maryland environmental educators in collaboratively learning and expanding their programming on the complex issue of climate change. Participants will learn how to

  19. Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is likely to affect the water cycle by influencing the precipitation patterns. It is important to integrate the anticipated changes into the design of urban drainage in response to the increased risk level in cities. This paper presents a pluvial flood risk assessment framework...... to identify and assess adaptation options in the urban context. An integrated approach is adopted by incorporating climate change impact assessment, flood inundation modeling, economic tool, and risk assessment, hereby developing a step-by-step process for cost-benefit assessment of climate change adaptation...

  20. AN ASSESSMENT OF THE INTEGRATED PEST MANAGEMENT ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Integrated Pest Management Collaborative Research Support Program) has been applying a farmer participatory IPM strategy at on-farm research sites in eastern Uganda since 1995. Following five years of project implementation an evaluation ...

  1. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  2. Verbal Bullying Changes Among Students Following an Educational Intervention Using the Integrated Model for Behavior Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naidoo, Saloshni; Satorius, Benn K; de Vries, Hein; Taylor, Myra

    2016-11-01

    Bullying behavior in schools can lead to psychosocial problems. School-based interventions are important in raising student awareness, developing their skills and in planning to reduce bullying behavior. A randomized controlled trial, using a school-based educational intervention to reduce verbal bullying, was conducted among grade 10 students in 16 urban and rural schools in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa in 2013. Baseline and postintervention questionnaires, developed using the Integrated Model for Behavior Change theoretical model, were used to assess changes in verbal bullying. Postintervention there were reduced verbal bullying experiences. Improved social norms and awareness of verbal bullying were associated with reduced verbal bullying experiences and behavior. Although less likely to bully others verbally, girls were more likely to experience verbal bullying. Students with no living father were more likely to bully others verbally. The study findings indicate that a school-based intervention can positively impact on verbal bullying experiences and behavior. © 2016, American School Health Association.

  3. Assessing the Impacts of Forests on Human Welfare: Prelimnary Results from the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessement

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. Evan Mercer; P.B. Aruna

    2000-01-01

    Abstract. This paper presents results from the first phase of the socio-economic assessment of forest ecosystems in the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment (MAIA). First, we present results of the analysis of changes in the distribution of human population and forest land use in the region. Then, trends in wood products employment and income between...

  4. Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

  5. 78 FR 38318 - Integrated Science Assessment for Lead

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-26

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9827-4] Integrated Science Assessment for Lead AGENCY... availability of a final document titled, ``Integrated Science Assessment for Lead'' (EPA/600/R-10/075F). The... lead (Pb). DATES: The document will be available on or around June 26, 2013. ADDRESSES: The...

  6. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-13

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  7. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-01-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

  8. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  9. Social integration prospectively predicts changes in heart rate variability among individuals undergoing migration stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gouin, Jean-Philippe; Zhou, Biru; Fitzpatrick, Stephanie

    2015-04-01

    Poor social integration increases risk for poor health. The psychobiological pathways underlying this effect are not well-understood. This study utilized a migration stress model to prospectively investigate the impact of social integration on change in high-frequency heart rate variability (HF-HRV), a marker of autonomic functioning. Sixty new international students were recruited shortly after their arrival in the host country and assessed 2 and 5 months later. At each assessment period, participants provided information on social integration and loneliness and had their resting HF-HRV evaluated. There was an overall decrease in HF-HRV over time. The magnitude of the within-person and between-person effects of social integration on HRV increased over time, such that greater social integration was associated with higher HF-HRV at later follow-ups. These results suggest that altered autonomic functioning might represent a key pathway linking social integration to health outcomes.

  10. Tropical forest carbon assessment: integrating satellite and airborne mapping approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asner, Gregory P

    2009-01-01

    Large-scale carbon mapping is needed to support the UNFCCC program to reduce deforestation and forest degradation (REDD). Managers of forested land can potentially increase their carbon credits via detailed monitoring of forest cover, loss and gain (hectares), and periodic estimates of changes in forest carbon density (tons ha -1 ). Satellites provide an opportunity to monitor changes in forest carbon caused by deforestation and degradation, but only after initial carbon densities have been assessed. New airborne approaches, especially light detection and ranging (LiDAR), provide a means to estimate forest carbon density over large areas, which greatly assists in the development of practical baselines. Here I present an integrated satellite-airborne mapping approach that supports high-resolution carbon stock assessment and monitoring in tropical forest regions. The approach yields a spatially resolved, regional state-of-the-forest carbon baseline, followed by high-resolution monitoring of forest cover and disturbance to estimate carbon emissions. Rapid advances and decreasing costs in the satellite and airborne mapping sectors are already making high-resolution carbon stock and emissions assessments viable anywhere in the world.

  11. Structural integrity assessment of HANARO pool cover

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryu, Jeong Soo

    2001-11-01

    This report is for the seismic analysis and the structural integrity evaluation of HANARO Pool Cover in accordances with the requirement of the Technical Specification for Seismic Analysis of HANARO Pool Cover. For performing the seismic analysis and evaluating the structural integrity for HANARO Pool Cover, the finite element analysis model using ANSYS 5.7 was developed and the dynamic characteristics were analyzed. The seismic response spectrum analyses of HANARO Pool Cover under the design floor response spectrum loads of OBE and SSE were performed. The analysis results show that the stress values in HANARO Pool Cover for the seismic loads are within the ASME Code limits. It is also confirmed that the fatigue usage factor is less than 1.0. Therefore any damage on structural integrity is not expected when an HANARO Pool Cover is installed in the upper part of the reactor pool

  12. Sustainable BECCS pathways evaluated by an integrated assessment model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, E.

    2017-12-01

    Negative emissions technologies, particularly Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), are key components of mitigation strategies in ambitious future socioeconomic scenarios analysed by integrated assessment models. Generally, scenarios aiming to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Also, in the context of Paris agreement which acknowledges "a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century", RD&D for the negative emissions technologies in this decade has a crucial role for the possibility of early deployment of the technology. Because of the requirement of potentially extensive use of land and water for producing the bioenergy feedstock to get the anticipated level of gross negative emissions, researches on how to develop sustainable scenarios of BECCS is needed. Here, we present BECCS deployment scenarios that consider economically viable flow of bioenergy system including power generation and conversion process to liquid and gaseous fuels for transportation and heat with consideration of sustainable global biomass use. In the modelling process, detailed bioenergy representations, i.e. various feedstock and conversion technologies with and without CCS, are implemented in an integrated assessment (IA) model GRAPE (Global Relationship Assessment to Protect the Environment). Also, to overcome a general discrepancy about assumed future agricultural yield between 'top-down' IA models and 'bottom-up' estimates, which would crucially affect the land-use pattern, we applied yields change of food and energy crops consistent with process-based biophysical crop models in consideration of changing climate conditions. Using the framework, economically viable strategy for implementing sustainable bioenergy and BECCS flow are evaluated in the scenarios targeting to keep global average

  13. Improved data for integrated modeling of global environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2011-12-01

    The assessment of global environmental changes, their impact on human societies, and possible management options requires large-scale, integrated modeling efforts. These models have to link biophysical with socio-economic processes, and they have to take spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions into account. Land use change and freshwater use are two key research areas where spatial aggregation and the use of regional average numbers may lead to biased results. Useful insights can only be obtained if processes like economic globalization can be consistently linked to local environmental conditions and resource constraints (Lambin and Meyfroidt 2011). Spatially explicit modeling of environmental changes at the global scale has a long tradition in the natural sciences (Woodward et al 1995, Alcamo et al 1996, Leemans et al 1996). Socio-economic models with comparable spatial detail, e.g. on grid-based land use change, are much less common (Heistermann et al 2006), but are increasingly being developed (Popp et al 2011, Schneider et al 2011). Spatially explicit models require spatially explicit input data, which often constrains their development and application at the global scale. The amount and quality of available data on environmental conditions is growing fast—primarily due to improved earth observation methods. Moreover, systematic efforts for collecting and linking these data across sectors are on the way (www.earthobservations.org). This has, among others, also helped to provide consistent databases on different land cover and land use types (Erb et al 2007). However, spatially explicit data on specific anthropogenic driving forces of global environmental change are still scarce—also because these cannot be collected with satellites or other devices. The basic data on socio-economic driving forces, i.e. population density and wealth (measured as gross domestic product per capita), have been prepared for spatially explicit analyses (CIESIN, IFPRI

  14. An integrated framework for health and ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suter, Glenn W.; Vermeire, Theo; Munns, Wayne R.; Sekizawa, Jun

    2005-01-01

    The worldHealth Organization's (WHO's) International Program for Chemical Safety has developed a framework for performing risk assessments that integrate the assessment of risks to human health and risks to nonhuman organisms and ecosystems. The WHO's framework recognizes that stakeholders and risk managers have their own processes that are parallel to the scientific process of risk assessment and may interact with the risk assessment at various points, depending on the context. Integration of health and ecology provides consistent expressions of assessment results, incorporates the interdependence of humans and the environment, uses sentinel organisms, and improves the efficiency and quality of assessments relative to independent human health and ecological risk assessments. The advantage of the framework to toxicologists lies in the opportunity to use understanding of toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics to inform the integrated assessment of all exposed species

  15. Integrated ecosystem assessment for western development of China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    The objectives of Integrated Ecosystem Assessment for Western Development of China includes: (1) providing scientific basis for ecosystem protection, ecosystem management and ecological construction in the western development; (2) developing complete database and analytical tools and strengthening decision-making support capacity; and (3) improving ecosystem management in China, spreading ecological knowledge to the public, serving decision-making of local and central governments, and promoting socio-economic sustainable development. The design and implementation of the project are of significance under the macro background of western development of China. By the integrated assessment of western China, we can get the first-hand data covering all the environmental factors as well as disclose the situations and their changing trends of ecosystem in the western part of China, which will benefit the decision-making for the central and local governments in the implementation of the western development strategy. In other words, the implementation of the project, to a certain extent, can guarantee the regional sustainable development of western China.

  16. Integrated fate and toxicity assessment for site contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacDonell, Margaret; Peterson, John; Finster, Molly; Douglas, R.

    2007-01-01

    Understanding the fate and toxicity of environmental contaminants is essential to framing practical management decisions. Forms and bioavailable concentrations often change over time due to natural physical, chemical, and biological processes. For some sites, hundreds of contaminants may be of initial interest, and even small projects can involve a substantial number of contaminants. With multiple assessments common, attention to effectiveness and efficiency is important, and integrating fate and toxicity information provides a valuable way to focus the analyses. Fate assessments help identify what forms may be present where and when, while toxicity information indicates what health effects could result if people were exposed. The integration process is illustrated by an application for the Hanford site, to support long-term management decisions for the cesium and strontium capsules. Fate data, health-based benchmarks, and related toxicity information were effectively combined to indicate performance targets for chemicals and radionuclides identified for capsule leachate that could migrate to groundwater. More than 50 relevant benchmarks and toxicity context were identified for 15 of the 17 study contaminants; values for chronic drinking water exposure provided the common basis for selected indicators. For two chemicals, toxicity information was identified from the scientific literature to guide the performance targets. (authors)

  17. B Plant low level waste system integrity assessment report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walter, E.J.

    1995-09-01

    This document provides the report of the integrity assessment activities for the B Plant low level waste system. The assessment activities were in response to requirements of the Washington State Dangerous Waste Regulations, Washington Administrative Code (WAC), 173-303-640. This integrity assessment report supports compliance with Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order interim milestone target action M-32-07-T03

  18. assessing climate change impacts on river hydrology

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    71

    model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), in order to evaluate the effect of climate. 24 change on rainfall ... to project future climate data based on the CO2 emission scenarios.The RCMs are of finer ..... Springer Science+Business. 2.

  19. The 2008 California climate change assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, G.

    2008-12-01

    In 2005, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger signed Executive Order S-03-05, which laid the foundation for California's ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation reduction efforts. The 2020 goal is now codified in state law requiring bringing 2020 emissions to the 1990 levels. The Executive Order also mandates the preparation of biennial updates on the latest climate change science, potential impacts, and assessment of the state's efforts to manage its climate change risks through various adaptation options. In 2006, the first of these mandated scientific assessments (The Governor's Scenarios Report) was released. Based on new scientific studies conducted in the interim, the next assessment, the '2008 Governor's Scenarios Report' is currently in preparation. It has three principal goals: (1) to improve the assessment of climate changes for California and associated impacts on key physical and biological indicators; (2) to begin to translate these physical and biological impacts into sectoral economic impacts; and (3) to begin to develop and evaluate strategies for key sectors or regions for adapting to climate changes already underway. Contributors to this session will present some of this new research to the scientific community. Among the most exciting new insights are impacts assessments for the all-important water and agricultural sectors, coastal areas, public health and related air quality and environmental justice issues, the forestry and energy sectors. This presentation will give an overview of the overall effort which will result in about 35 scientific papers from different research institutions in California. All of the studies are interlinked in such a way as to produce a consistent overall assessment.

  20. Integrating Product Water Quality Effects In Holistic Assessments Of Water Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Rygaard, Martin

    2011-01-01

    While integrated assessments of sustainability of water systems are largely focused on quantity issues, chemical use, and energy consumption, effects of the supplied water quality are often overlooked. Drinking water quality affects corrosion rates, human health, applicability of water and aesthetics. Even small changes in the chemical composition of water may accumulate large impacts on city scale. Here, a method for integrated assessment of water quality is presented. Based on dose-response...

  1. Specialization-Specific Course Assessments Integrated for Program Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Qurban A. Memon; Adnan Harb; Shakeel Khoja

    2012-01-01

    The program assessment process combines assessments from individual courses to generate final program assessment to match accreditation benchmarks. In developing countries, industrial environment is not diversified to allow graduating engineers to seek jobs in all disciplines or specializations of an engineering program. Hence, it seems necessary to seek evolution of an engineering program assessment for specialized requirements of the industry. This paper describes how specialization-specifi...

  2. Integrating Ecosystem Services Into Health Impact Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Health Impact Assessment (HIA) provides a methodology for incorporating considerations of public health into planning and decision-making processes. HIA promotes interdisciplinary action, stakeholder participation, and timeliness and takes into account equity, sustainability, and...

  3. Data report for the integrity assessment report HNF-4589

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MCSHANE, D.S.

    1999-01-01

    Supporting data for the Integrity Assessment Report of Tanks TK-101 and TK-102. The purpose of this document is to compile supporting documentation for the Integrity Assessment Report (HNF 4589) for Tanks 101 and 102 in the 2194 Facility. This approach minimizes the size of the Integrity Assessment Report (IAR) (HNF-4589) and still provide a path to detailed information. This IAR addresses the evaluation of Tanks 101 and 102 and other existing components located in the 219-5 Waste Handling Facility

  4. Double-shell tank waste transfer facilities integrity assessment plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hundal, T.S.

    1998-01-01

    This document presents the integrity assessment plan for the existing double-shell tank waste transfer facilities system in the 200 East and 200 West Areas of Hanford Site. This plan identifies and proposes the integrity assessment elements and techniques to be performed for each facility. The integrity assessments of existing tank systems that stores or treats dangerous waste is required to be performed to be in compliance with the Washington State Department of Ecology Dangerous Waste Regulations, Washington Administrative Code WAC-173-303-640 requirements

  5. Life stressors and social resources: an integrated assessment approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moos, R H; Fenn, C B; Billings, A G

    1988-01-01

    The Life Stressors and Social Resources Inventory (LISRES) is described. The inventory provides an integrated assessment of an individual's life context. It taps both relatively stable and new aspects of life stressors and social resources in eight domains: physical health, home/neighborhood, financial, work, spouse/partner, children, extended family, and friends. The indices were developed on data obtained at two points in time from groups of depressed patients, alcoholic patients, arthritic patients, and healthy adults. The indices are internally consistent, moderately intercorrelated, and relatively stable over time. In addition, they are predictably related to changes in respondents' functioning. Although more developmental work is needed, the LISRES has some potential clinical and research applications and may be helpful in examining the process of stress and coping.

  6. The Challenge of Assessing Professional Competence in Work Integrated Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamara, Judith

    2013-01-01

    A fundamental aspect of work integrated learning (WIL) is the development of professional competence, the ability of students to perform in the workplace. Alignment theory therefore suggests that the assessment of WIL should include an assessment of students' demonstration of professional competence in the workplace. The assessment of professional…

  7. Strategic Environmental Assessment: Integrated environmental management

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available stream_source_info Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism_2004.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 70155 Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 stream_name Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism_2004.pdf... and Tourism Other topics in the series of overview information documents on the concepts of, and approaches to, integrated environmental management are listed below. Further titles in this series are being prepared and will be made available periodically...

  8. The development of integrated safety assessment technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, Keon Joong; Park, Chang Kyu; Kim, Tae Un; Han, Sang Hoon; Yang, Joon Eon; Lim, Tae Jin; Han, Jae Joo; Je, Moo Seong; An, Kwang Il; Kim, Shi Dal; Jeong, Jong Tae; Jeong, Kwang Seop; Jin, Yeong Ho; Kim, Dong Ha; Kim, Kil Yoo; Cho, Yeong Kyoon; Jeong, Won Dae; Jang, Seung Cheol; Choi, Yeong; Park, Soo Yong; Seong, Tae Yong; Song, Yong Man; Kang, Dae Il; Park, Jin Hee; Jang, Seon Joo; Hwang, Mi Jeong; Choi, Seon Yeong

    1993-05-01

    For the purpose of developing the integrated PSA methodology and computer codes, Level-1 and Level-2 PSA methodology and tools were reviewed and improved. The Level-1 PSA computer code package KIRAP was improved and released by the name of KIRAP Release 2.0 Several Human reliability analysis and common cause failure analysis methods was reviewed and compared. For the development of Level-2 PSA computer code, several level-1 and Level-2 interface methods and containment event tree development methods were reviewed and compared. And the new technology such as artificial intelligence was reviewed if the technology can be applied to the development of PSA methodology.(Author)

  9. Integrating scientific, economic, and ecological aspects of global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacoby, H.D.; Yang, Z.

    1994-01-01

    The MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is conducting research on methods for integrating the science of potential global change with economic analysis of litigation policies and quantification of economic and environmental impacts. The paper describes this work, with a focus on the way that research within the various contributing disciplines, and the design of their associated models, are influenced by the process of inclusion in an integrated framework for policy analysis. The results should contribute new insight into the relative importance of key feedbacks within the economy-climate-ecology system

  10. Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: an assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Creutzig, Felix; Ravindranath, N. H.; Berndes, Göran

    2015-01-01

    , provide an update on estimates of technical resource potential and comprehensively identify sustainability effects. Cellulosic feedstocks, increased end-use efficiency, improved land carbon-stock management and residue use, and, when fully developed, BECCS appear as the most promising options, depending...... on development costs, implementation, learning, and risk management. Combined heat and power, efficient biomass cookstoves and small-scale power generation for rural areas can help to promote energy access and sustainable development, along with reduced emissions. We estimate the sustainable technical potential......: Land-use and energy experts, land-use and integrated assessment modelers, human geographers, ecosystem researchers, climate scientists and two different strands of life-cycle assessment experts. We summarize technological options, outline the state-of-the-art knowledge on various climate effects...

  11. LEADING CHANGES IN ASSESSMENT USING AN EVIDENCE BASED APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. O. Macaulay

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and objectivesIt is has been widely accepted that assessment of learning is a critical component of education and that assessment drives/guides student learning through shaping study habits and student approaches to learning. However, although most academics would agree that assessment is a critical aspect of their roles as teachers it is often an aspect of teaching that is regarded more as an additional task rather than an integral component of the teaching/learning continuum. An additional impediment to high quality assessment is the non-evidence based-approach to the decision making process. The overall aim of this project was to improve the quality of assessment in Biochemistry and Molecular Biology undergraduate education by promoting high quality assessment.Materials and methodsTo do this we developed and trialled an audit tool for mapping assessment practices. The audit tool was designed to gather data on current assessment practices and identify areas of good practice in which assessment aligned with the learning objectives and areas in need of improvement. This evidence base will then be used to drive change in assessment.Results and conclusionsUsing the assessment mapping tool we have mapped the assessment regime in a Biochemistry and Molecular Biology major at Monash University. Criteria used included: assessment type, format, timing, assessors, provision of feedback, level of learning (Bloom’s, approaches taken to planning assessment. We have mapped assessment of content and the systematic development of higher order learning and skills progression throughout the program of study. The data has enabled us to examine the assessment at unit (course level as well as the vertical development across the major. This information is now being used to inform a review of the units and the major.

  12. Integrated assessment and environmental policy making. In pursuit of usefulness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E.A.

    1995-01-01

    Current integrated assessment projects primarily seek end to end integration through formal models at a national to global scale, and show three significant representational weaknesses: determinants of decadal-scale emissions trends; valuing impacts and adaptive response; and the formation and effects of policies. Meeting the needs of policy audiences may require other forms of integration; may require integration by formal modeling or by other means; and may require representing decisions of other actors through political and negotiating processes. While rational global environmental policy making requires integrated assessment, current practice admits no single vision of how to do it, so understanding will be best advanced by a diverse collection of projects pursuing distinct methods and approaches. Further practice may yield some consensus on best practice, possibly including generic assessment skills generalizable across issues. (Author)

  13. Integrated Evaluation of Age-Related Changes in Structural and Functional Vascular Parameters Used to Assess Arterial Aging, Subclinical Atherosclerosis, and Cardiovascular Risk in Uruguayan Adults: CUiiDARTE Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bia, Daniel; Zócalo, Yanina; Farro, Ignacio; Torrado, Juan; Farro, Federico; Florio, Lucía; Olascoaga, Alicia; Brum, Javier; Alallón, Walter; Negreira, Carlos; Lluberas, Ricardo; Armentano, Ricardo L

    2011-01-01

    This work was carried out in a Uruguayan (South American) population to characterize aging-associated physiological arterial changes. Parameters markers of subclinical atherosclerosis and that associate age-related changes were evaluated in healthy people. A conservative approach was used and people with nonphysiological and pathological conditions were excluded. Then, we excluded subjects with (a) cardiovascular (CV) symptoms, (b) CV disease, (c) diabetes mellitus or renal failure, and (d) traditional CV risk factors (other than age and gender). Subjects (n = 388) were submitted to non-invasive vascular studies (gold-standard techniques), to evaluate (1) common (CCA), internal, and external carotid plaque prevalence, (2) CCA intima-media thickness and diameter, (3) CCA stiffness (percentual pulsatility, compliance, distensibility, and stiffness index), (4) aortic stiffness (carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity), and (5) peripheral and central pressure wave-derived parameters. Age groups: ≤20, 21-30, 31-40, 41-50, 51-60, 61-70, and 71-80 years old. Age-related structural and functional vascular parameters profiles were obtained and analyzed considering data from other populations. The work has the strength of being the first, in Latin America, that uses an integrative approach to characterize vascular aging-related changes. Data could be used to define vascular aging and abnormal or disease-related changes.

  14. Assessment of Coastal Governance for Climate Change Adaptation in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ojwang, Lenice; Rosendo, Sergio; Celliers, Louis; Obura, David; Muiti, Anastasia; Kamula, James; Mwangi, Maina

    2017-11-01

    The coastline of Kenya already experiences effects of climate change, adding to existing pressures such as urbanization. Integrated coastal management (ICM) is increasingly recognized as a key policy response to deal with the multiple challenges facing coastal zones, including climate change. It can create an enabling governance environment for effective local action on climate change by facilitating a structured approach to dealing with coastal issues. It encompasses the actions of a wide range of actors, including local governments close to people and their activities affected by climate change. Functioning ICM also offers opportunities for reducing risks and building resilience. This article applied a modified capitals approach framework (CAF), consisting of five "capitals," to assess the status of county government capacity to respond to climate change within the context of coastal governance in three county governments in Kenya. The baseline was defined in terms of governance relating to the implementation of the interrelated policy systems of ICM and coastal climate change adaptation (CCA). The CAF framework provided a systematic approach to building a governance baseline against which to assess the progress of county governments in responding to climate change. It identified gaps in human capacity, financial resource allocation to adaptation and access to climate change information. Furthermore, it showed that having well-developed institutions, including regulatory frameworks at the national level can facilitate but does not automatically enable adaptation at the county level.

  15. An Integrated Analysis of Changes in Water Stress in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henrichs, T.; Lehner, B.; Alcamo, J.

    2002-01-01

    Future changes in water availability with climate change and changes in water use due to socio-economic development are to occur in parallel. In an integrated analysis we bring together these aspects of global change in a consistent manner, and analyse the water stress situation in Europe. We find...... that today high water stress exists in one-fifth of European river basin area. Under a scenario projection, increases in water use throughout Eastern Europe are accompanied by decreases in water availability in most of Southern Europe--combining these trends leads to a marked increase in water stress...

  16. Climate Change and Environmental assessments: Issues in an African Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dalfelt, Arne; Naess, Lars Otto

    1997-12-31

    The present report discusses the potential for integrating climate change issues into environmental assessments of development actions, with an emphasis on sub-Sahara Africa. The study is motivated by the fact that future climate change could have significant adverse impacts on the natural and socio-economic environment in Africa. Yet, to date global change issues, including climate change, have been largely overlooked in the process of improving environmental assessment procedures and methodologies. It is argued that although emissions of greenhouse gases in Africa are negligible today, it is highly relevant to include this aspect in the planning of long-term development strategies. The report discusses potential areas of conflicts and synergies between climate change and development goals. The general conclusion is that environmental assessments could be an appropriate tool for addressing climate change issues, while there are still several obstacles to its practical implementation. Four priority areas are suggested for further work: (1) Environmental accounting, (2) harmonization and standard-setting, (3) implementation, and (4) risk management. 82 refs., 5 figs., 11 tabs.

  17. Risk Informed Design Using Integrated Vehicle Rapid Assessment Tools

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A successful proof of concept was performed in FY 2012 integrating the Envision tool for parametric estimates of vehicle mass and the Rapid Response Risk Assessment...

  18. Assessment on Vulnerable Youths Integration to Dar es Salaam ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessment on Vulnerable Youths Integration to Dar es Salaam Solid Waste ... existing municipal solid waste management crisis facing Dar es Salaam City using ... enabling environment of turning rampant solid waste collection a commercial ...

  19. Assessment of Integrated Information System (IIS) in organization ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessment of Integrated Information System (IIS) in organization. ... to enable the Information System (IS) managers, as well as top management to understand the ... since organisational and strategic aspects in IIS should also be considered.

  20. CCIEA data and model output - California Current Integrated Ecosystem Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The California Current Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (CCIEA) is a joint project between staff at the NWFSC, SWFSC, NMML, ONMS, and WCRO to provide managers and...

  1. 241-AY Double Shell Tanks (DST) Integrity Assessment Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    JENSEN, C.E.

    1999-01-01

    This report presents the results of the integrity assessment of the 241-AY double-shell tank farm facility located in the 200 East Area of the Hanford Site. The assessment included the design evaluation and integrity examinations of the tanks and concluded that the facility is adequately designed, is compatible with the waste, and is fit for use. Recommendations including subsequent examinations, are made to ensure the continued safe operation of the tanks

  2. Data report for the integrity assessment report HNF-4589

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MCSHANE, D.S.

    1999-10-27

    The purpose of this document is to compile supporting documentation for the Integrity Assessment Report (HNF 4589) for Tanks 101 and 102 in the 2194 Facility. This approach minimizes the size of the Integrity Assessment Report (IAR) (HNF-4589) and still provide a path to detailed information. This IAR addresses the evaluation of Tanks 101 and 102 and other existing components located in the 219-5 Waste Handling Facility.

  3. 241-AN Double Shell Tanks (DST) Integrity Assessment Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    JENSEN, C.E.

    1999-01-01

    This report presents the results of the integrity assessment of the 241-AN double-shell tank farm facility located in the 200 East Area of the Hanford Site. The assessment included the design evaluation and integrity examinations of the tanks and concluded that the facility is adequately designed, is compatible with the waste, and is fit for use. Recommendations including subsequent examinations, are made to ensure the continued safe operation of the tanks

  4. 241-AY Double Shell Tanks (DST) Integrity Assessment Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    JENSEN, C.E.

    1999-09-21

    This report presents the results of the integrity assessment of the 241-AY double-shell tank farm facility located in the 200 East Area of the Hanford Site. The assessment included the design evaluation and integrity examinations of the tanks and concluded that the facility is adequately designed, is compatible with the waste, and is fit for use. Recommendations including subsequent examinations. are made to ensure the continued safe operation of the tanks.

  5. 241-SY Double Shell Tanks (DST) Integrity Assessment Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    JENSEN, C.E.

    1999-01-01

    This report presents the results of the integrity assessment of the 241-SY double-shell tank farm facility located in the 200 West Area of the Hanford Site. The assessment included the design evaluation and integrity examinations of the tanks and concluded that the facility is adequately designed, is compatible with the waste, and is fit for use. Recommendations including subsequent examinations, are made to ensure the continued safe operation of the tanks

  6. 241-AZ Double-Shell Tanks (DST) Integrity Assessment Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    JENSEN, C.E.

    1999-01-01

    This report presents the results of the integrity assessment of the 241-A2 double-shell tank farm facility located in the 200 East Area of the Hanford Site. The assessment included the design evaluation and integrity examinations of the tanks and concluded that the facility is adequately designed, is compatible with the waste, and is fit for use. Recommendations including subsequent examinations, are made to ensure the continued safe operation of the tanks

  7. 241-AW Double Shell Tanks (DST) Integrity Assessment Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    JENSEN, C.E.

    1999-01-01

    This report presents the results of the integrity assessment of the 241-AW double-shell tank farm facility located in the 200 East Area of the Hanford Site. The assessment included the design evaluation and integrity examinations of the tanks and concluded that the facility is adequately designed, is compatible with the waste, and is fit for use. Recommendations including subsequent examinations, are made to ensure the continued safe operation of the tanks

  8. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Dawson, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment prioriti...

  9. Triangular model integrating clinical teaching and assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdelaziz, Adel; Koshak, Emad

    2014-01-01

    Structuring clinical teaching is a challenge facing medical education curriculum designers. A variety of instructional methods on different domains of learning are indicated to accommodate different learning styles. Conventional methods of clinical teaching, like training in ambulatory care settings, are prone to the factor of coincidence in having varieties of patient presentations. Accordingly, alternative methods of instruction are indicated to compensate for the deficiencies of these conventional methods. This paper presents an initiative that can be used to design a checklist as a blueprint to guide appropriate selection and implementation of teaching/learning and assessment methods in each of the educational courses and modules based on educational objectives. Three categories of instructional methods were identified, and within each a variety of methods were included. These categories are classroom-type settings, health services-based settings, and community service-based settings. Such categories have framed our triangular model of clinical teaching and assessment.

  10. Integrated assessment of the phosphate industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryan, M.T.; Cotter, S.J.

    1980-05-01

    The phosphate industry in the United States includes three major activities, namely, mining and milling of phosphate rock, phosphate product manufacture, and phosphate product use. Phosphatic materials contain uranium, thorium, and their decay products in greater than background amounts. This assessment of the radiological impacts associated with the redistribution of radioactive components of phosphate materials may provide insight into the effects of uranium extraction from phosphate materials for use in the nuclear fuel cycle

  11. Integrating tidal and nontidal ecological assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark Southerland; Roberto Llanso

    2016-01-01

    The Maryland Department of Natural Resources (DNR) has a long history of conducting rigorous assessments of ecological conditions in both tidal and nontidal waters. The Long-Term Benthic (LTB) Monitoring Program and the Maryland Biological Stream Survey (MBSS) both use reference-based indicators of benthic invertebrate communities to provide areawide estimates of ...

  12. Triangular model integrating clinical teaching and assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelaziz A

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Adel Abdelaziz,1,2 Emad Koshak3 1Medical Education Development Unit, Faculty of Medicine, Al Baha University, Al Baha, Saudi Arabia; 2Medical Education Department, Faculty of Medicine, Suez Canal University, Egypt; 3Dean and Internal Medicine Department, Faculty of Medicine, Al Baha University, Al Baha, Saudi Arabia Abstract: Structuring clinical teaching is a challenge facing medical education curriculum designers. A variety of instructional methods on different domains of learning are indicated to accommodate different learning styles. Conventional methods of clinical teaching, like training in ambulatory care settings, are prone to the factor of coincidence in having varieties of patient presentations. Accordingly, alternative methods of instruction are indicated to compensate for the deficiencies of these conventional methods. This paper presents an initiative that can be used to design a checklist as a blueprint to guide appropriate selection and implementation of teaching/learning and assessment methods in each of the educational courses and modules based on educational objectives. Three categories of instructional methods were identified, and within each a variety of methods were included. These categories are classroom-type settings, health services-based settings, and community service-based settings. Such categories have framed our triangular model of clinical teaching and assessment. Keywords: curriculum development, teaching, learning, assessment, apprenticeship, community-based settings, health service-based settings

  13. An integrated urban drainage system model for assessing renovation scheme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, X; Zeng, S; Chen, J; Zhao, D

    2012-01-01

    Due to sustained economic growth in China over the last three decades, urbanization has been on a rapidly expanding track. In recent years, regional industrial relocations were also accelerated across the country from the east coast to the west inland. These changes have led to a large-scale redesign of urban infrastructures, including the drainage system. To help the reconstructed infrastructures towards a better sustainability, a tool is required for assessing the efficiency and environmental performance of different renovation schemes. This paper developed an integrated dynamic modeling tool, which consisted of three models for describing the sewer, the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and the receiving water body respectively. Three auxiliary modules were also incorporated to conceptualize the model, calibrate the simulations, and analyze the results. The developed integrated modeling tool was applied to a case study in Shenzhen City, which is one of the most dynamic cities and facing considerable challenges for environmental degradation. The renovation scheme proposed to improve the environmental performance of Shenzhen City's urban drainage system was modeled and evaluated. The simulation results supplied some suggestions for the further improvement of the renovation scheme.

  14. A case study: Integrated work environment and organizational change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heubach, J.G.; Montgomery, J.C.; Weimer, W.C. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Heerwagen, J.H. [Battelle Seattle Research Center, WA (United States)

    1995-02-01

    The failure to integrate environmental and organizational interventions may help explain the lack of success of many change efforts. The high rate of failure for change efforts (50% to 90% failure rates) has been noted by many writers. While specific causes of failure are diverse, a common theme has been failure to consider the organization as a system. That is, either significant aspects of the organization were ignored during the intervention or potential impacts of changes on the elements were overlooked or underestimated. Our own training, technical literature, and professional culture lead us to limited understandings of complex organizations. Change agents must consider all relevant components of organizational performance if interventions are to be meaningful and successful. This study demonstrated the value of an integrated organizational intervention involving redesign of the physical environment, introduction of a new information system, work process improvement, and extended organizational development intervention. The outcomes were extremely positive. The cost of improvement efforts was found to be recaptured within a short time, easily justifying the expenditures. One conclusion from the study is that integrated interventions are very powerful. Integrating improvement of the physical environment with organizational development and technological innovation greatly enhances the likelihood of achieving a successful intervention.

  15. Differentiation and Integration: Guiding Principles for Analyzing Cognitive Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegler, Robert S.; Chen, Zhe

    2008-01-01

    Differentiation and integration played large roles within classic developmental theories but have been relegated to obscurity within contemporary theories. However, they may have a useful role to play in modern theories as well, if conceptualized as guiding principles for analyzing change rather than as real-time mechanisms. In the present study,…

  16. Integrating Biopsychosocial Intervention Research in a Changing Health Care Landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ell, Kathleen; Oh, Hyunsung; Wu, Shinyi

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Safety net care systems are experiencing unprecedented change from the "Affordable Care Act," Patient-Centered Medical Home (PCMH) uptake, health information technology application, and growing of mental health care integration within primary care. This article provides a review of previous and current efforts in which social…

  17. The resilience of integrated agricultural systems to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dias Bernardes Gil, Juliana; Cohn, Avery S.; Duncan, John; Newton, Peter; Vermeulen, Sonja

    2017-01-01

    We reviewed studies addressing the extent to which more integrated agricultural systems (IAS) have been found to be more resilient to climate variability and climate change than more specialized agricultural systems. We found limited literature directly addressing the topic, necessitating the use of

  18. Social Integration and Health Behavioral Change in San Luis, Honduras

    Science.gov (United States)

    McQuestion, Michael J.; Calle, Ana Quijano; Drasbek, Christopher; Harkins, Thomas; Sagastume, Lourdes J.

    2010-01-01

    This study explores the effects of social integration on behavioral change in the course of an intensive, community-based public health intervention. The intervention trained volunteers and mobilized local organizations to promote 16 key family health practices in rural San Luis, Honduras, during 2004 to 2006. A mixed methods approach is used.…

  19. National Call for Organizational Change from Sheltered to Integrated Employment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogan, Patricia; Rinne, Susan

    2011-01-01

    Our purpose in this article is to contend that organizational change from sheltered to integrated employment is not only possible but necessary, and a federal Employment First agenda must be advanced. Findings are reported from interviews with senior managers from 10 organizations that have shifted their service delivery to community employment,…

  20. Integrated reactive self-assessment for programmatic learning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corcoran, W.R.

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents a generalized method for using reactive self-assessment. The application is to programmatic learning involving the integration of reactive self-assessment results over a period of time. This paper also presents some of the results of one application of the process. Self-assessment, in general, is the assessment conducted or sponsored by an individual or organization of its own activities for the purpose of detecting improvement opportunities, either of the corrective or the enhancement types. Reactive self-assessment is a self-assessment activity conducted in reaction to a shortfall event. An integrative reactive self-assessment is a self-assessment that integrates a set of reactive self-assessment results. Programmatic learning is increasing the knowledge base in a program area. Self-assessment, in general, and reactive self-assessment, in particular, are required by federal quality requirements. One such program area is nuclear power plant testing, which is also required by federal quality requirements. Any program area could have been selected, but this one was selected because it was involved in the Chernobyl accident, the most consequential nuclear power accident up until the time of this writing. Other consequential accidents involving nuclear power plant testing were the Browns Ferry fire and the Salem overspeed event. (The author, of course, does not conduct nuclear power plant testing but is doing a self-assessment as if he were acting for an organization that did testing.)

  1. Integrated assessment of dispersed energy resources deployment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marnay, Chris; Blanco, Raquel; Hamachi, Kristina S.; Kawaan, Cornelia P.; Osborn, Julie G.; Rubio, F. Javier

    2000-06-01

    The goal of this work is to create an integrated framework for forecasting the adoption of distributed energy resources (DER), both by electricity customers and by the various institutions within the industry itself, and for evaluating the effect of this adoption on the power system, particularly on the overall reliability and quality of electrical service to the end user. This effort and follow on contributions are intended to anticipate and explore possible patterns of DER deployment, thereby guiding technical work on microgrids towards the key technical problems. An early example of this process addressed is the question of possible DER adopting customer disconnection. A deployment scenario in which many customers disconnect from their distribution company (disco) entirely leads to a quite different set of technical problems than a scenario in which customers self generate a significant share or all of their on-site electricity requirements and additionally buy and sell energy and ancillary services (AS) locally and/or into wider markets. The exploratory work in this study suggests that the economics under which customers disconnect entirely are unlikely.

  2. Integrating global energy and climate governance: The changing role of the International Energy Agency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heubaum, Harald; Biermann, Frank

    2015-01-01

    Despite the long-recognized interlinkages between global energy consumption and climate change, there has historically been only limited policy interaction, let alone integration, between the two fields. This compartmentalization is mirrored in scholarship, where much research has focused on the fragmentation of, respectively, global energy and global climate governance, but only little has been said about how these fields might be integrated. Our analysis of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) changing activities in recent years shows that governance integration – both within global energy governance and between global energy and climate governance – is now happening. The IEA has broadened its portfolio to embrace the full spectrum of energy issues, including renewable energy and climate change; it has built and is expanding key partnerships with both the UN climate convention and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA); and it has become an authoritative advocate for the inter-related goals of a low-carbon transition and climate change mitigation. We show that these developments are not the result of a top-down plan, but have rather emerged through the Agency’s various efforts to pursue its energy-centric mandate in a fast-changing global policy environment. - Highlights: • Assesses integration between global energy and global climate governance. • Analyzes organizational change in the IEA and its impact on governance integration. • Discusses recent activities and advocacy by the IEA in relation to climate change.

  3. Distributed Energy Resources and Dynamic Microgrid: An Integrated Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Duo Rick

    The overall goal of this thesis is to improve understanding in terms of the benefit of DERs to both utility and to electricity end-users when integrated in power distribution system. To achieve this goal, a series of two studies was conducted to assess the value of DERs when integrated with new power paradigms. First, the arbitrage value of DERs was examined in markets with time-variant electricity pricing rates (e.g., time of use, real time pricing) under a smart grid distribution paradigm. This study uses a stochastic optimization model to estimate the potential profit from electricity price arbitrage over a five-year period. The optimization process involves two types of PHEVs (PHEV-10, and PHEV-40) under three scenarios with different assumptions on technology performance, electricity market and PHEV owner types. The simulation results indicate that expected arbitrage profit is not a viable option to engage PHEVs in dispatching and in providing ancillary services without more favorable policy and PHEV battery technologies. Subsidy or change in electricity tariff or both are needed. Second, it examined the concept of dynamic microgrid as a measure to improve distribution resilience, and estimates the prices of this emerging service. An economic load dispatch (ELD) model is developed to estimate the market-clearing price in a hypothetical community with single bid auction electricity market. The results show that the electricity market clearing price on the dynamic microgrid is predominantly decided by power output and cost of electricity of each type of DGs. At circumstances where CHP is the only source, the electricity market clearing price in the island is even cheaper than the on-grid electricity price at normal times. Integration of PHEVs in the dynamic microgrid will increase electricity market clearing prices. It demonstrates that dynamic microgrid is an economically viable alternative to enhance grid resilience.

  4. Computer aided probabilistic assessment of containment integrity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsai, J.C.; Touchton, R.A.

    1984-01-01

    In the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of a nuclear power plant, there are three probability-based techniques which are widely used for event sequence frequency quantification (including nodal probability estimation). These three techniques are the event tree analysis, the fault tree analysis and the Bayesian approach for database development. In the barrier analysis for assessing radionuclide release to the environment in a PRA study, these techniques are employed to a greater extent in estimating conditions which could lead to failure of the fuel cladding and the reactor coolant system (RCS) pressure boundary, but to a lesser degree in the containment pressure boundary failure analysis. The main reason is that containment issues are currently still in a state of flux. In this paper, the authors describe briefly the computer programs currently used by the nuclear industry to do event tree analyses, fault tree analyses and the Bayesian update. The authors discuss how these computer aided probabilistic techniques might be adopted for failure analysis of the containment pressure boundary

  5. Effective integrated frameworks for assessing mining sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virgone, K M; Ramirez-Andreotta, M; Mainhagu, J; Brusseau, M L

    2018-05-28

    The objectives of this research are to review existing methods used for assessing mining sustainability, analyze the limited prior research that has evaluated the methods, and identify key characteristics that would constitute an enhanced sustainability framework that would serve to improve sustainability reporting in the mining industry. Five of the most relevant frameworks were selected for comparison in this analysis, and the results show that there are many commonalities among the five, as well as some disparities. In addition, relevant components are missing from all five. An enhanced evaluation system and framework were created to provide a more holistic, comprehensive method for sustainability assessment and reporting. The proposed framework has five components that build from and encompass the twelve evaluation characteristics used in the analysis. The components include Foundation, Focus, Breadth, Quality Assurance, and Relevance. The enhanced framework promotes a comprehensive, location-specific reporting approach with a concise set of well-defined indicators. Built into the framework is quality assurance, as well as a defined method to use information from sustainability reports to inform decisions. The framework incorporates human health and socioeconomic aspects via initiatives such as community-engaged research, economic valuations, and community-initiated environmental monitoring.

  6. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua

    2015-01-01

    The combination of a warming Earth and an increasing population will likely strain the world's food systems in the coming decades. Experts involved with the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) focus on quantifying the changes through time. AgMIP, a program begun in 2010, involves about 800 climate scientists, economists, nutritionists, information technology specialists, and crop and livestock experts. In mid-September 2015, the Aspen Global Change Institute convened an AgMIP workshop to draft plans and protocols for assessing global- and regional-scale modeling of crops, livestock, economics, and nutrition across major agricultural regions worldwide. The goal of this Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments (CGRA) project is to characterize climate effects on large- and small-scale farming systems.

  7. Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2010 - part 1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - integrated assessment modeling and valuation.

  8. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aanund Killingtveit

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Currently, hydropower accounts for close to 16% of the world’s total power supply and is the world’s most dominant (86% source of renewable electrical energy. The key resource for hydropower generation is runoff, which is dependent on precipitation. The future global climate is uncertain and thus poses some risk for the hydropower generation sector. The crucial question and challenge then is what will be the impact of climate change on global hydropower generation and what are the resulting regional variations in hydropower generation potential? This paper is a study that aims to evaluate the changes in global hydropower generation resulting from predicted changes in climate. The study uses an ensemble of simulations of regional patterns of changes in runoff, computed from global circulation models (GCM simulations with 12 different models. Based on these runoff changes, hydropower generation is estimated by relating the runoff changes to hydropower generation potential through geographical information system (GIS, based on 2005 hydropower generation. Hydropower data obtained from EIA (energy generation, national sites, FAO (water resources and UNEP were used in the analysis. The countries/states were used as computational units to reduce the complexities of the analysis. The results indicate that there are large variations of changes (increases/decreases in hydropower generation across regions and even within regions. Globally, hydropower generation is predicted to change very little by the year 2050 for the hydropower system in operation today. This change amounts to an increase of less than 1% of the current (2005 generation level although it is necessary to carry out basin level detailed assessment for local impacts which may differ from the country based values. There are many regions where runoff and hydropower generation will increase due to increasing precipitation, but also many regions where there will be a decrease. Based on this

  9. Hydrological change: Towards a consistent approach to assess changes on both floods and droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quesada-Montano, Beatriz; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Rangecroft, Sally; Van Loon, Anne F.

    2018-01-01

    Several studies have found that the frequency, magnitude and spatio-temporal distribution of droughts and floods have significantly increased in many regions of the world. Yet, most of the methods used in detecting trends in hydrological extremes 1) focus on either floods or droughts, and/or 2) base their assessment on characteristics that, even though useful for trend identification, cannot be directly used in decision making, e.g. integrated water resources management and disaster risk reduction. In this paper, we first discuss the need for a consistent approach to assess changes on both floods and droughts, and then propose a method based on the theory of runs and threshold levels. Flood and drought changes were assessed in terms of frequency, length and surplus/deficit volumes. This paper also presents an example application using streamflow data from two hydrometric stations along the Po River basin (Italy), Piacenza and Pontelagoscuro, and then discuss opportunities and challenges of the proposed method.

  10. Embedding of Authentic Assessment in Work-Integrated Learning Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosco, Anna Maria; Ferns, Sonia

    2014-01-01

    Contemporary perspectives of higher education endorse a work integrated learning (WIL) approach to curriculum content, delivery and assessment. It is agreed that authenticity in learning relates to real-world experience, however, differentiating and strategically linking WIL provision and facilitation to assessment tasks and collation of authentic…

  11. Integration of Probabilistic Exposure Assessment and Probabilistic Hazard Characterization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voet, van der H.; Slob, W.

    2007-01-01

    A method is proposed for integrated probabilistic risk assessment where exposure assessment and hazard characterization are both included in a probabilistic way. The aim is to specify the probability that a random individual from a defined (sub)population will have an exposure high enough to cause a

  12. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Dawson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment priorities for adaptation. The three examples explore interdependencies that arise from (1 climate loading dependence; (2 mediation of two climate impacts by physical processes operating over large spatial extents; and, (3 multiple risks that are influenced by shared climatic and socio-economic drivers. Drawing upon learning from these case studies, and other work, a framework for the analysis and consideration of interdependencies in climate change risk assessment has been developed. This is an iterative learning loop that involves defining the system, scoping interaction mechanisms, applying appropriate modelling tools, identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities, and assessing the performance of adaptation interventions.

  13. Integrated assessment of bioelectricity technology options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thornley, Patricia; Upham, Paul; Huang, Ye; Rezvani, Sina; Brammer, John; Rogers, John

    2009-01-01

    Power generation from biomass is a sustainable energy technology which can contribute to substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, but with greater potential for environmental, economic and social impacts than most other renewable energy technologies. It is important therefore in assessing bioenergy systems to take account of not only technical, but also environmental, economic and social parameters on a common basis. This work addresses the challenge of analysing, quantifying and comparing these factors for bioenergy power generation systems. A life-cycle approach is used to analyse the technical, environmental, economic and social impacts of entire bioelectricity systems, with a number of life-cycle indicators as outputs to facilitate cross-comparison. The results show that similar greenhouse gas savings are achieved with the wide variety of technologies and scales studied, but land-use efficiency of greenhouse gas savings and specific airborne emissions varied substantially. Also, while specific investment costs and electricity costs vary substantially from one system to another the number of jobs created per unit of electricity delivered remains roughly constant. Recorded views of stakeholders illustrate that diverging priorities exist for different stakeholder groups and this will influence appropriate choice of bioenergy systems for different applications

  14. Integrated Science Assessment (ISA) for Sulfur Oxides ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This draft document provides EPA’s evaluation and synthesis of the most policy-relevant science related to the health effects of sulfur oxides. When final, it will provide a critical part of the scientific foundation for EPA’s decision regarding the adequacy of the current primary (health-based) National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for sulfur dioxide. The references considered for inclusion in or cited in the external review draft ISA are available at https://hero.epa.gov/hero/sulfur-oxides. The intent of the ISA, according to the CAA, is to “accurately reflect the latest scientific knowledge expected from the presence of [a] pollutant in ambient air” (U.S. Code, 1970a, 1970b). It includes an assessment of scientific research from atmospheric sciences, exposure sciences, dosimetry, mode of action, animal and human toxicology, and epidemiology. Key information and judgments formerly found in the Air Quality Criteria Documents (AQCDs) for sulfur oxides (SOx) are included; Annexes provide additional details supporting the ISA. Together, the ISA and Annexes serve to update and revise the last SOx ISA which was published in 2008.

  15. Chapter 1: Overview of the integrated landscape assessment project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles A. Hemstrom; Jessica E. Halofsky; F. Jack Triepke; R. James Barbour; Janine Salwasser

    2014-01-01

    Fire suppression, vegetation management activities, wildfires, grazing, climate change, and other factors result in constantly changing vegetation and habitat conditions across millions of hectares in the Western United States. In recent years, the size and number of large wildfires has grown, threatening lives, property, and ecosystem integrity. At the same time,...

  16. Canadian insights: The challenges of an integrated environmental assessment framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCaig, Karen

    2005-01-01

    The paper draws results from a review of literature to examine the strengths and weaknesses of the integrated environmental assessment framework in Canada with respect to the inclusion of health impact assessment. Insights include the legislative nature, rigid structure and priority for the natural environment that may restrict progress and the pool of government agencies that need to be convinced of the benefits of health impact assessment that may provide a strong structure for compliance in the long term

  17. Changes in carbon footprint when integrating production of filamentous fungi in 1st generation ethanol plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brancoli, Pedro; Ferreira, Jorge A; Bolton, Kim; Taherzadeh, Mohammad J

    2018-02-01

    Integrating the cultivation of edible filamentous fungi in the thin stillage from ethanol production is presently being considered. This integration can increase the ethanol yield while simultaneously producing a new value-added protein-rich biomass that can be used for animal feed. This study uses life cycle assessment to determine the change in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions when integrating the cultivation of filamentous fungi in ethanol production. The result shows that the integration performs better than the current scenario when the fungal biomass is used as cattle feed for system expansion and when energy allocation is used. It performs worse if the biomass is used as fish feed. Hence, integrating the cultivation of filamentous fungi in 1st generation ethanol plants combined with proper use of the fungi can lead to a reduction of GHG emissions which, considering the number of existing ethanol plants, can have a significant global impact. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Towards an interpretive measurement framework to assess the levels of integrated and integrative thinking within organisations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Schörger

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This research study is located within the context of corporate reporting and is relevant for the agenda of sustainability and sustainable development. The specific context for this study is the South African mining industry, within which three units in the form of three companies, were chosen to provide a coherent case for this study. The sample for the analysis is based on the integrated reports of these companies for the years 2012 and 2013. This gives this research a total sample size of six reports. Based on the research findings an initial interpretive measurement framework to assess the levels of capital integration has been theorised which enables the various stakeholders of an organisation to assess the integrated and integrative thinking capabilities. The level of integration is represented as a maturity scale on which integrated thinking is associated with the lower levels, while integrative thinking is attributed to higher levels of maturity. In the elaborated framework, integrated thinking is perceived as being a prerequisite for integrative thinking. The practical implication of this study is that it provides a potential measurement framework for various organisational stakeholders, including investors, to assess the thinking capabilities that are more likely to lead to long term financial stability and sustainability. The value of this research study is that it provides an initial step towards measuring the level of integrated and integrative thinking capabilities within organisations where no such measurement framework currently exists. The limitations and implications of this research study are that the interpretive measurement framework represents merely an initial step and an ongoing working hypothesis which requires further research to develop its maturity and usefulness.

  19. Integrated environmental and economic assessment of waste management systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinez Sanchez, Veronica

    in the “Optimization approach” the scenarios are the results of an optimization process. • The cost approach describes cost principles and level of LCA integration. Conventional and Environmental LCCs are financial assessments, i.e. include marketed goods/services, but while Environmental LCCs include environmental...... assessment of SWM systems alongside environmental impacts assessment to take budget constrains into account. In light of the need for combined environmental and economic assessment of SWM, this PhD thesis developed a consistent and comprehensive method for integrated environmental and economic assessment...... of SWM technologies and systems. The method resulted from developing further the generic Life Cycle Costing (LCC) framework suggested by Hunkeler et al. (2008) and Swarr et al. (2011) to apply it on the field of SWM. The method developed includes: two modelling approaches (Accounting and Optimization...

  20. Integrating climate change into agricultural research for development in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Anderson, Simon

    2011-09-15

    African agriculture is already struggling to meet increasing demand for food. Climate change, which will alter agroecological conditions and looks set to arrest and decrease agricultural yields on the continent, will make it even harder to achieve food security. Boosting agricultural productivity in Africa, especially in the face of climate change, cannot be achieved without the benefits of cutting edge science. Advances in technology development and transfer, capacity building and policy research must be harnessed by developing and disseminating relevant strategies and technologies, and improving policy environments. The European Initiative for Agricultural Research for Development (EIARD), which facilitates and coordinates European policy and support for agricultural research for development, must integrate climate change into its activities and ensure that agricultural research for development and climate change adaptation are not disjointed. This demands a more strategic and coordinated approach from the initiative — one that reflects African realities, responds to African priorities for adaptation and development, and makes the best use of limited resources.

  1. Integrity assessment report of tanks TK-101 and TK-102

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MCSHANE, D.S.

    1999-08-25

    This Integrity Assessment Report (IAR) is prepared by Fluor Daniel Northwest (FDNW) for Waste Management Federal Services of Hanford, Inc., (WMH), the operations contractor; Fluor Daniel Hanford (FDH), the Hanford Site Manager; and the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE), the system owner. This IAR addresses the evaluation of Tanks 101 and 102 and other existing components located in the 219-S Waste Handling Facility. This report will be included in the Part B Permit for the 2226 Laboratory and is a portion of the integrity assessment of the overall 222-5 Laboratory radioactive liquid waste disposal system. This IAR is prepared in accordance with WAC 173-303, Dangerous Waste Regulations; Section 640(2), ''Assessment of Existing Tank Systems Integrity .''

  2. Integrity assessment report of tanks TK-101 and TK-102

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MCSHANE, D.S.

    1999-01-01

    This Integrity Assessment Report (IAR) is prepared by Fluor Daniel Northwest (FDNW) for Waste Management Federal Services of Hanford, Inc., (WMH), the operations contractor; Fluor Daniel Hanford (FDH), the Hanford Site Manager; and the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE), the system owner. This IAR addresses the evaluation of Tanks 101 and 102 and other existing components located in the 219-S Waste Handling Facility. This report will be included in the Part B Permit for the 2226 Laboratory and is a portion of the integrity assessment of the overall 222-5 Laboratory radioactive liquid waste disposal system. This IAR is prepared in accordance with WAC 173-303, Dangerous Waste Regulations; Section 640(2), ''Assessment of Existing Tank Systems Integrity .''

  3. Romanian network for structural integrity assessment of nuclear components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roth, Maria; Constantinescu, Dan Mihai; Brad, Sebastian; Ducu, Catalin

    2008-01-01

    Full text: Based of the Romanian option to develop and operate nuclear facilities, using as model the networks created at European level and taking into account the international importance of the structural integrity assessments for lifetime extension of the nuclear components, a national Project started since 2005 in the framework of the National Program 'Research of Excellence', Modulus I 2006-2008, managed by the Ministry of Education and Research. Entitled 'Integrated Network for Structural Integrity Monitoring of Critical Components in Nuclear Facilities', with the acronym RIMIS, the Project had two main objectives: - to elaborate a procedure applicable to the structural integrity assessment of the critical components used in Romanian nuclear facilities; - to integrate the national networking in a similar one, at European level, to enhance the scientific significance of Romanian R and D organizations as well as to increase the contribution to solving one of the major issue of the nuclear field. The paper aimed to present the activities performed in the Romanian institutes, involved in the Project, the final results obtained as part of the R and D activities, including experimental, theoretical and modeling ones regarding structural integrity assessment of nuclear components employed in CANDU type reactors. Also the activity carried out in the framework of the NULIFE network, created at European level of the FP6 Program and sustained by the RIMIS network will be described. (authors)

  4. Perspectives for integrating human and environmental exposure assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciffroy, P; Péry, A R R; Roth, N

    2016-10-15

    Integrated Risk Assessment (IRA) has been defined by the EU FP7 HEROIC Coordination action as "the mutual exploitation of Environmental Risk Assessment for Human Health Risk Assessment and vice versa in order to coherently and more efficiently characterize an overall risk to humans and the environment for better informing the risk analysis process" (Wilks et al., 2015). Since exposure assessment and hazard characterization are the pillars of risk assessment, integrating Environmental Exposure assessment (EEA) and Human Exposure assessment (HEA) is a major component of an IRA framework. EEA and HEA typically pursue different targets, protection goals and timeframe. However, human and wildlife species also share the same environment and they similarly inhale air and ingest water and food through often similar overlapping pathways of exposure. Fate models used in EEA and HEA to predict the chemicals distribution among physical and biological media are essentially based on common properties of chemicals, and internal concentration estimations are largely based on inter-species (i.e. biota-to-human) extrapolations. Also, both EEA and HEA are challenged by increasing scientific complexity and resources constraints. Altogether, these points create the need for a better exploitation of all currently existing data, experimental approaches and modeling tools and it is assumed that a more integrated approach of both EEA and HEA may be part of the solution. Based on the outcome of an Expert Workshop on Extrapolations in Integrated Exposure Assessment organized by the HEROIC project in January 2014, this paper identifies perspectives and recommendations to better harmonize and extrapolate exposure assessment data, models and methods between Human Health and Environmental Risk Assessments to support the further development and promotion of the concept of IRA. Ultimately, these recommendations may feed into guidance showing when and how to apply IRA in the regulatory decision

  5. Bridging the gap between theory and practice in integrated assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Norman

    2006-01-01

    There is growing support for the use of integrated assessments (IAs)/sustainability impact assessments (SIAs), at different government levels and geographic scales of policy-making and planning, both nationally and internationally. However, delivering good quality IAs/SIAs, in the near future, could be challenging. This paper mainly focuses upon one area of concern, differences between research and other technical contributions intended to strengthen assessment methodologies and the types of assessment methods considered usable by practitioners. To help in addressing this concern, the development of a common assessment framework is proposed, which is based on a shared, practitioner-researcher-stakeholder understanding of what constitutes a satisfactory integrated/sustainability impact assessment. The paper outlines a possible structure for this framework, which contains three interconnected elements-the planning context in which the assessment is to be carried out; the process by which the assessment is to be undertaken and its findings used; and the methods, technical and consultative, by which impacts are to be assessed. It concludes with suggested 'next steps', addressed to researchers, practitioners and other stakeholders, by which the assessment framework might be tested and improved, and its subsequent use supported

  6. Fort Stewart integrated resource assessment. Volume 3: Resource assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, G.P.; Keller, J.M.; Stucky, D.J.; Wahlstrom, R.R.; Larson, L.L.

    1993-10-01

    The US Army Forces Command (FORSCOM) has tasked the US Department of Energy (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP), supported by the Pacific Northwest Laboratory, to identify, evaluate, and assist in acquiring all cost-effective energy projects at Fort Stewart. This is part of a model program that PNL is designing to support energy-use decisions in the federal sector. This report provides the results of the fossil fuel and electric energy resource opportunity (ERO) assessments performed by PNL at the FORSCOM Fort Stewart facility located approximately 25 miles southwest of Savannah, Georgia. It is a companion report to Volume 1, Executive Summary, and Volume 2, Baseline Detail. The results of the analyses of EROs are presented in 11 common energy end-use categories (e.g., boilers and furnaces, service hot water, and building lighting). A narrative description of each ERO is provided, along with a table detailing information on the installed cost, energy and dollar savings; impacts on operations and maintenance (O&M); and, when applicable, a discussion of energy supply and demand, energy security, and environmental issues. A description of the evaluation methodologies and technical and cost assumptions is also provided for each ERO. Summary tables present the cost-effectiveness of energy end-use equipment before and after the implementation of each ERO. The tables also present the results of the life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis indicating the net present value (NPV) and savings to investment ratio (SIR) of each ERO.

  7. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Integrated Monitoring System for Durability Assessment of Concrete Bridges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian-Claudiu Comisu

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available An ageing and deteriorating bridge stock presents the bridge owners with the growing challenge of maintaining the structures at a satisfactory level of safety, performance and aesthetic appearance within the allocated budgets. This task calls for optimized bridge management based on efficient methods of selecting technical and economical optimal maintenance and rehabilitation strategies. One of the crucial points in the assessment of the current condition and future development and performance. Selecting the optimal maintenance and rehabilitation strategy within the actual budget is a key point in bridge management for which an accurate assessment of performance and deterioration rate is necessary. For this assessment, the use of integrated monitoring system has several advantages compared to the traditional approach of scattered visual inspections combined with occasional on site testing with portable equipment and laboratory testing of collected samples. For this reason, attention is more focusing on the development of permanent integrated monitoring system for durability assessment of concrete bridges. It is estimated that with the implementation of such integrated monitoring systems, it should be possible to reduce the operating costs of inspections and maintenance by 25% and the operator of the structures will be able to take protective actions before damaging processes start. This paper indentifies the main bridge owner requirements to integrated monitoring systems and outlines how monitoring systems may be used for performance and deterioration rate assessment to establish a better basis for selecting the optimal maintenance and rehabilitation strategy.

  9. An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources – Part 2: Applications and assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Hanasaki

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available To assess global water resources from the perspective of subannual variation in water availability and water use, an integrated water resources model was developed. In a companion report, we presented the global meteorological forcing input used to drive the model and six modules, namely, the land surface hydrology module, the river routing module, the crop growth module, the reservoir operation module, the environmental flow requirement module, and the anthropogenic withdrawal module. Here, we present the results of the model application and global water resources assessments. First, the timing and volume of simulated agriculture water use were examined because agricultural use composes approximately 85% of total consumptive water withdrawal in the world. The estimated crop calendar showed good agreement with earlier reports for wheat, maize, and rice in major countries of production. In major countries, the error in the planting date was ±1 mo, but there were some exceptional cases. The estimated irrigation water withdrawal also showed fair agreement with country statistics, but tended to be underestimated in countries in the Asian monsoon region. The results indicate the validity of the model and the input meteorological forcing because site-specific parameter tuning was not used in the series of simulations. Finally, global water resources were assessed on a subannual basis using a newly devised index. This index located water-stressed regions that were undetected in earlier studies. These regions, which are indicated by a gap in the subannual distribution of water availability and water use, include the Sahel, the Asian monsoon region, and southern Africa. The simulation results show that the reservoir operations of major reservoirs (>1 km3 and the allocation of environmental flow requirements can alter the population under high water stress by approximately −11% to +5% globally. The integrated model is applicable to

  10. Nurse practitioner integration: Qualitative experiences of the change management process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Grainne; Plummer, Virginia; Boyd, Leanne

    2018-04-30

    The aim of this qualitative research was to explore perceptions of organisational change related to the integration of nurse practitioners from key nursing stakeholders. The ongoing delivery of effective and efficient patient services is reliant upon the development and sustainability of nurse practitioner roles. Examination of the factors contributing to the underutilization of nurse practitioner roles is crucial to inform future management policies. A change management theory is used to reveal the complexity involved. Qualitative interviews were undertaken using a purposive sampling strategy of key stakeholders. Thematic analysis was undertaken and key themes were correlated to the theoretical framework. The results confirm the benefits of nurse practitioner roles, but suggest organisational structures and embedded professional cultures present barriers to full role optimization. Complicated policy processes are creating barriers to the integration of nurse practitioner roles. The findings increase understanding of the links between strategic planning, human resource management, professional and organisational cultures, governance and politics in change management. Effective leadership drives the change process through the ability to align key components necessary for success. Sustainability of nurse practitioners relies on recognition of their full potential in the health care team. The results of this study highlight the importance of management and leadership in the promotion of advanced nursing skills and experience to better meet patient outcomes. The findings reinforce the potential of nurse practitioners to deliver patient centred, timely and efficient health care. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. An integrated assessment framework for land subsidence in delta cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. H. M. Bucx

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available In many delta cities land subsidence exceeds absolute sea level rise up to a factor of ten by excessive groundwater extraction related to rapid urbanization and population growth. Without change, parts of Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh City, Bangkok and numerous other delta (and coastal cities will sink below sea level. Increased flooding and also other widespread impacts of land subsidence result already in damage of billions of dollars per year. In order to gain insight in the complex, multi-sectoral aspects of subsidence, to raise awareness and to support decision making on appropriate adaptation strategies and measures, an Integrated Assessment Framework (IAF for subsidence is introduced, illustrated by several (delta case studies. Based on that a list of 10 generic key issues and possible solutions is presented in order to further develop and support a (generic approach how to deal with subsidence in current and future subsidence-prone areas. For exchange of experiences and knowledge development.on subsidence in deltas the Delta Alliance, a knowledge network of deltas worldwide, can be supportive.

  12. Intrinsic ethics regarding integrated assessment models for climate management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schienke, Erich W; Baum, Seth D; Tuana, Nancy; Davis, Kenneth J; Keller, Klaus

    2011-09-01

    In this essay we develop and argue for the adoption of a more comprehensive model of research ethics than is included within current conceptions of responsible conduct of research (RCR). We argue that our model, which we label the ethical dimensions of scientific research (EDSR), is a more comprehensive approach to encouraging ethically responsible scientific research compared to the currently typically adopted approach in RCR training. This essay focuses on developing a pedagogical approach that enables scientists to better understand and appreciate one important component of this model, what we call intrinsic ethics. Intrinsic ethical issues arise when values and ethical assumptions are embedded within scientific findings and analytical methods. Through a close examination of a case study and its application in teaching, namely, evaluation of climate change integrated assessment models, this paper develops a method and case for including intrinsic ethics within research ethics training to provide scientists with a comprehensive understanding and appreciation of the critical role of values and ethical choices in the production of research outcomes.

  13. Integrated assessment of the global warming problem: A decision-analytical approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Lenthe, J.; Hendrickx, L.; Vlek, C.A.J.

    1994-12-01

    The multi-disciplinary character of the global warming problem asks for an integrated assessment approach for ordering and combining the various physical, ecological, economical, and sociological results. The Netherlands initiated their own National Research Program (NRP) on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NRP). The first phase (NRP-1) identified the integration theme as one of five central research themes. The second phase (NRP-2) shows a growing concern for integrated assessment issues. The current two-year research project 'Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy options, which started in September 1993, comes under the integrated assessment part of the Dutch NRP. The first part of the interim report describes the search for an integrated assessment methodology. It starts with emphasizing the need for integrated assessment at a relatively high level of aggregation and from a policy point of view. The conclusion will be that a decision-analytical approach might fit the purpose of a policy-oriented integrated modeling of the global warming problem. The discussion proceeds with an account on decision analysis and its explicit incorporation and analysis of uncertainty. Then influence diagrams, a relatively recent development in decision analysis, are introduced as a useful decision-analytical approach for integrated assessment. Finally, a software environment for creating and analyzing complex influence diagram models is discussed. The second part of the interim report provides a first, provisional integrated modeling of the global warming problem, emphasizing on the illustration of the decision-analytical approach. Major problem elements are identified and an initial problem structure is developed. The problem structure is described in terms of hierarchical influence diagrams. At some places the qualitative structure is filled with quantitative data

  14. Behavioural design: A process for integrating behaviour change and design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cash, Philip; Hartlev, Charlotte Gram; Durazo, Christine Boysen

    2017-01-01

    Nudge, persuasion, and the influencing of human behaviour through design are increasingly important topics in design research and in the wider public consciousness. However, current theoretical approaches to behaviour change have yet to be operationalized this in design process support....... Specifically, there are few empirically grounded processes supporting designers in realising behaviour change projects. In response to this, 20 design projects from a case company are analysed in order to distil a core process for behavioural design. Results show a number of process stages and activities...... associated with project success, pointing to a new perspective on the traditional design process, and allowing designers to integrate key insights from behaviour change theory. Using this foundation we propose the Behavioural Design process....

  15. Changes in Quality of Health Care Delivery after Vertical Integration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlin, Caroline S; Dowd, Bryan; Feldman, Roger

    2015-08-01

    To fill an empirical gap in the literature by examining changes in quality of care measures occurring when multispecialty clinic systems were acquired by hospital-owned, vertically integrated health care delivery systems in the Twin Cities area. Administrative data for health plan enrollees attributed to treatment and control clinic systems, merged with U.S. Census data. We compared changes in quality measures for health plan enrollees in the acquired clinics to enrollees in nine control groups using a differences-in-differences model. Our dataset spans 2 years prior to and 4 years after the acquisitions. We estimated probit models with errors clustered within enrollees. Data were assembled by the health plan's informatics team. Vertical integration is associated with increased rates of colorectal and cervical cancer screening and more appropriate emergency department use. The probability of ambulatory care-sensitive admissions increased when the acquisition caused disruption in admitting patterns. Moving a clinic system into a vertically integrated delivery system resulted in limited increases in quality of care indicators. Caution is warranted when the acquisition causes disruption in referral patterns. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  16. Advancing Integrated Systems Modelling Framework for Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony Halog

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The need for integrated methodological framework for sustainability assessment has been widely discussed and is urgent due to increasingly complex environmental system problems. These problems have impacts on ecosystems and human well-being which represent a threat to economic performance of countries and corporations. Integrated assessment crosses issues; spans spatial and temporal scales; looks forward and backward; and incorporates multi-stakeholder inputs. This study aims to develop an integrated methodology by capitalizing the complementary strengths of different methods used by industrial ecologists and biophysical economists. The computational methodology proposed here is systems perspective, integrative, and holistic approach for sustainability assessment which attempts to link basic science and technology to policy formulation. The framework adopts life cycle thinking methods—LCA, LCC, and SLCA; stakeholders analysis supported by multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA; and dynamic system modelling. Following Pareto principle, the critical sustainability criteria, indicators and metrics (i.e., hotspots can be identified and further modelled using system dynamics or agent based modelling and improved by data envelopment analysis (DEA and sustainability network theory (SNT. The framework is being applied to development of biofuel supply chain networks. The framework can provide new ways of integrating knowledge across the divides between social and natural sciences as well as between critical and problem-solving research.

  17. Assessment of integrated solar ultraviolet radiation by PM-355 detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abu-Jarad, F.; Al-Jarallah, M.I.; Elhadidy, M.A.; Shaahid, S.M.; Fazal-ur-Rehman

    2000-01-01

    The increase in environmental solar UV radiation due to depletion of ozone layer is a recent challenge to human health (skin cancer and eye effects) in countries having clear skies. Therefore, applying integrated, passive and inexpensive techniques to assess solar UV radiation is very much essential. Measurements of environmental solar UV radiation in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia area were carried out for a period of two months in the summer period in 1996 using two techniques in parallel namely: passive nuclear track detectors and active solar UV radiometers. Some of the nuclear track detectors were mounted in different conditions such as: under shadow band, on solar tracking mechanism following the solar rays. Others were mounted on perpendicular, tilted and horizontal surfaces in sunlight. All detectors were attached to a wooden background of the same thickness (0.5 cm) to eliminate interference of the heat effect of various support materials and have uniformity of the support materials. The assessment was carried out for different periods extending from two to nine weeks continuously. The investigated period covered the hottest months in Saudi Arabia (July and August) when the sky was clear of clouds. The results indicate linear correlation between alpha track diameters and the integrated exposure to solar UV as measured by the solar UV radiometer for all nuclear track detector positions and orientations. The highest slope has been observed for the detectors placed on solar tracking mechanism following the solar rays and the lowest from detectors oriented under the shadow band on horizontal position (measuring the diffused UV radiation only). The results show that most of the measured UV radiation (60%) were from the diffused UV radiation. The characteristics of the upper layer of the detectors are changed after chemical etching very quickly, with increase in the exposure time to UV solar radiation at certain orientation. The results encourage the use of nuclear track

  18. Assessment of integrated solar ultraviolet radiation by PM-355 detectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abu-Jarad, F.; Al-Jarallah, M.I.; Elhadidy, M.A.; Shaahid, S.M.; Fazal-ur-Rehman

    2000-06-01

    The increase in environmental solar UV radiation due to depletion of ozone layer is a recent challenge to human health (skin cancer and eye effects) in countries having clear skies. Therefore, applying integrated, passive and inexpensive techniques to assess solar UV radiation is very much essential. Measurements of environmental solar UV radiation in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia area were carried out for a period of two months in the summer period in 1996 using two techniques in parallel namely: passive nuclear track detectors and active solar UV radiometers. Some of the nuclear track detectors were mounted in different conditions such as: under shadow band, on solar tracking mechanism following the solar rays. Others were mounted on perpendicular, tilted and horizontal surfaces in sunlight. All detectors were attached to a wooden background of the same thickness (0.5 cm) to eliminate interference of the heat effect of various support materials and have uniformity of the support materials. The assessment was carried out for different periods extending from two to nine weeks continuously. The investigated period covered the hottest months in Saudi Arabia (July and August) when the sky was clear of clouds. The results indicate linear correlation between alpha track diameters and the integrated exposure to solar UV as measured by the solar UV radiometer for all nuclear track detector positions and orientations. The highest slope has been observed for the detectors placed on solar tracking mechanism following the solar rays and the lowest from detectors oriented under the shadow band on horizontal position (measuring the diffused UV radiation only). The results show that most of the measured UV radiation (60%) were from the diffused UV radiation. The characteristics of the upper layer of the detectors are changed after chemical etching very quickly, with increase in the exposure time to UV solar radiation at certain orientation. The results encourage the use of nuclear track

  19. The European programme on climatic change. Assessment and perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Creach, Morgane

    2008-09-01

    After having recalled how the ratification of the Kyoto protocol became the basis of the European programme for the struggle against climatic change (operation of flexibility mechanisms) and how this programme has been implemented, this report describes the content of the first European Climate Change Programme which notably addressed the energy sector with the promotion of energy efficiency and renewable energies, the transport sector, the industry sector with the implementation of the European trading scheme for CO 2 emissions, and a regulation on some fluoridated gases. The second part proposes a contrasted assessment of this first programme. It outlines the difficulties to meet the Kyoto objective and identifies the main reason for that, i.e. the limited abilities of the EU to apply the Kyoto protocol. The third part presents the second programme with an integrated climate-energy policy, the integration of the air transport sector within the ETS, a new strategy of reduction of CO 2 emissions by cars, and the definition of a strategy for adaptation to climate change in Europe

  20. Assessment and management of ecological integrity: Chapter 12

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Thomas J.; Freeman, Mary C.

    2010-01-01

    Assessing and understanding the impacts of human activities on aquatic ecosystems has long been a focus of ecologists, water resources managers, and fisheries scientists. While traditional fisheries management focused on single-species approaches to enhance fish stocks, there is a growing emphasis on management approaches at community and ecosystem levels. Of course, as fisheries managers shift their attention from narrow (e.g., populations) to broad organizational scales (e.g., communities or ecosystems), ecological processes and management objectives become more complex. At the community level, fisheries managers may strive for a fish assemblage that is complex, persistent, and resilient to disturbance. Aquatic ecosystem level objectives may focus on management for habitat quality and ecological processes, such as nutrient dynamics, productivity, or trophic interactions, but a long-term goal of ecosystem management may be to maintain ecological integrity. However, human users and social, economic, and political demands of fisheries management often result in a reduction of ecological integrity in managed systems, and this conflict presents a principal challenge for the modern fisheries manager. The concepts of biotic integrity and ecological integrity are being applied in fisheries science, natural resource management, and environmental legislation, but explicit definitions of these terms are elusive. Biotic integrity of an ecosystem may be defined as the capability of supporting and maintaining an integrated, adaptive community of organisms having a species composition, diversity, and functional organization comparable to that of a natural habitat of the region (Karr and Dudley 1981). Following that, ecological integrity is the summation of chemical, physical, and biological integrity. Thus, the concept of ecological integrity extends beyond fish and represents a holistic approach for ecosystem management that is especially applicable to aquatic systems. The

  1. Wetland Vegetation Integrity Assessment with Low Altitude Multispectral Uav Imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boon, M. A.; Tesfamichael, S.

    2017-08-01

    The use of multispectral sensors on Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) was until recently too heavy and bulky although this changed in recent times and they are now commercially available. The focus on the usage of these sensors is mostly directed towards the agricultural sector where the focus is on precision farming. Applications of these sensors for mapping of wetland ecosystems are rare. Here, we evaluate the performance of low altitude multispectral UAV imagery to determine the state of wetland vegetation in a localised spatial area. Specifically, NDVI derived from multispectral UAV imagery was used to inform the determination of the integrity of the wetland vegetation. Furthermore, we tested different software applications for the processing of the imagery. The advantages and disadvantages we experienced of these applications are also shortly presented in this paper. A JAG-M fixed-wing imaging system equipped with a MicaScene RedEdge multispectral camera were utilised for the survey. A single surveying campaign was undertaken in early autumn of a 17 ha study area at the Kameelzynkraal farm, Gauteng Province, South Africa. Structure-from-motion photogrammetry software was used to reconstruct the camera position's and terrain features to derive a high resolution orthoretified mosaic. MicaSense Atlas cloud-based data platform, Pix4D and PhotoScan were utilised for the processing. The WET-Health level one methodology was followed for the vegetation assessment, where wetland health is a measure of the deviation of a wetland's structure and function from its natural reference condition. An on-site evaluation of the vegetation integrity was first completed. Disturbance classes were then mapped using the high resolution multispectral orthoimages and NDVI. The WET-Health vegetation module completed with the aid of the multispectral UAV products indicated that the vegetation of the wetland is largely modified ("D" PES Category) and that the condition is expected to

  2. Environmental impact assessment for energy pathways: an integrated methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sommereux-Blanc, Isabelle

    2010-01-01

    This document presents the synthesis of my research work contributing to the development of an integrated methodology of environmental impact assessment for energy pathways. In the context of world globalization, environmental impact assessments issues are highly linked with the following questioning: Which environmental impacts? for which demand? at which location? at which temporal scale? My work is built upon the definition of a conceptual framework able to handle these issues and upon its progressive implementation. The integration of the spatial and temporal issues within the methodology are key elements. Fundamental cornerstones of this framework are presented along the DPSIR concept (Driving forces, Pressures, State, Impacts, Responses). They cover a comprehensive analysis of the limits and the relevance of life cycle analysis and the development of a geo-spatialized environmental performance approach for an electrical production pathway. Perspectives linked with the development of this integrated methodology are detailed for energy pathways. (author)

  3. Fully integrated modelling for sustainability assessment of resource recovery from waste.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millward-Hopkins, Joel; Busch, Jonathan; Purnell, Phil; Zwirner, Oliver; Velis, Costas A; Brown, Andrew; Hahladakis, John; Iacovidou, Eleni

    2018-01-15

    This paper presents an integrated modelling approach for value assessments, focusing on resource recovery from waste. The method tracks and forecasts a range of values across environmental, social, economic and technical domains by attaching these to material-flows, thus building upon and integrating unidimensional models such as material flow analysis (MFA) and lifecycle assessment (LCA). We argue that the usual classification of metrics into these separate domains is useful for interpreting the outputs of multidimensional assessments, but unnecessary for modelling. We thus suggest that multidimensional assessments can be better performed by integrating the calculation methods of unidimensional models rather than their outputs. To achieve this, we propose a new metric typology that forms the foundation of a multidimensional model. This enables dynamic simulations to be performed with material-flows (or values in any domain) driven by changes in value in other domains. We then apply the model in an illustrative case highlighting links between the UK coal-based electricity-production and concrete/cement industries, investigating potential impacts that may follow the increased use of low-carbon fuels (biomass and solid recovered fuels; SRF) in the former. We explore synergies and trade-offs in value across domains and regions, e.g. how changes in carbon emissions in one part of the system may affect mortality elsewhere. This highlights the advantages of recognising complex system dynamics and making high-level inferences of their effects, even when rigorous analysis is not possible. We also indicate how changes in social, environmental and economic 'values' can be understood as being driven by changes in the technical value of resources. Our work thus emphasises the advantages of building fully integrated models to inform conventional sustainability assessments, rather than applying hybrid approaches that integrate outputs from parallel models. The approach we

  4. The Partnership between Project Management and Organizational Change: Integrating Change Management with Change Leadership

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith-Cooper, Barber; King, Karyl

    2007-01-01

    The nature of project management is change. Even though all knowledge areas in the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK) are rooted in controlling change, none of these areas specifically addresses the human elements of change. There is a significant distinction between directly controlling change relative to the nonhuman aspects of a…

  5. Formative Assessment Design for PDA Integrated Ecology Observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Pi-Hsia; Lin, Yu-Fen; Hwang, Gwo-Jen

    2010-01-01

    Ubiquitous computing and mobile technologies provide a new perspective for designing innovative outdoor learning experiences. The purpose of this study is to propose a formative assessment design for integrating PDAs into ecology observations. Three learning activities were conducted in this study. An action research approach was applied to…

  6. WWER 440 integrity assessment with respect to PTS events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hrazsky, M.; Mikua, M.; Hermansky, P.

    1997-01-01

    The present state of art in WWER 440 RPV integrity assessment with respect to PTS events utilized in Slovakia is reviewed briefly in this paper. Recent results of some PTS's (very severe) analyses, shortly described in our paper, have confirmed the necessity of elaboration of new more sophisticated procedures again. Such methodology should be based on prepared IAEA Guidance. (author). 13 refs, 1 fig

  7. Integrating Planning, Assessment, and Improvement in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherlock, Barbara J.

    2009-01-01

    Based on Penn State's popular "Innovation Insights" series, this book brings together in one handy reference nearly a decade of tried and true insights into continuous quality improvements in higher education. Their five-step model for integrating planning, assessment, and improvement moves plans off the shelf and into the weekly and daily…

  8. Interactive reliability assessment using an integrated reliability data bank

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allan, R.N.; Whitehead, A.M.

    1986-01-01

    The logical structure, techniques and practical application of a computer-aided technique based on a microcomputer using floppy disc Random Access Files is described. This interactive computational technique is efficient if the reliability prediction program is coupled directly to a relevant source of data to create an integrated reliability assessment/reliability data bank system. (DG)

  9. Integrated assessment of ecosystem services in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Frélichová, Jana; Vačkář, David; Pártl, Adam; Loučková, Blanka; Lorencová, Eliška

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 8, jun (2014), s. 110-117 ISSN 2212-0416 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073; GA TA ČR TD010066 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : ecosystems * ecosystem services * integrated assessment * database * valuation * Czech Republic Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour

  10. Stimulating Learning with Integrated Assessments in Construction Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imriyas Kamardeen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Quality of learning students experience is heavily dependent on the effectiveness of course design. Assessments are a key component in course design and students determine their level of involvement in a learning activity based on whether it is assessed or not. Assessments are therefore a powerful tool that lecturers can utilise to drive learning. However, designing effective assessments to stimulate learning is challenging in the presence of disciplinary, contextual dimensions. A case study approach is adopted to demonstrate how effective integrated assessment schemes may be developed and implemented for construction education. The scheme in the case study amalgamated case-based learning, online quizzes and adaptive eTests to provide a variety of assessments, aligned with lecture topics and contemporary real-word scenarios. It was found that the presence of both formative and summative tasks in the assessment scheme complemented each other, kept students constantly motivated and engaged in learning, and resulted in a good learning experience for them. The study provide evidence, and valuable insights and tips for lecturers in similar degree programs as to how they could modify pedagogical styles in their courses for better learning experiences for students and improved teaching ratings for themselves. Keywords: Pedagogy, Integrated assessment, Case-based learning, Online quiz, Adaptive eLearning

  11. Stimulating Learning with Integrated Assessments in Construction Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imriyas Kamardeen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Quality of learning students experience is heavily dependent on the effectiveness of course design. Assessments are a key component in course design and students determine their level of involvement in a learning activity based on whether it is assessed or not. Assessments are therefore a powerful tool that lecturers can utilise to drive learning. However, designing effective assessments to stimulate learning is challenging in the presence of disciplinary, contextual dimensions. A case study approach is adopted to demonstrate how effective integrated assessment schemes may be developed and implemented for construction education. The scheme in the case study amalgamated case-based learning, online quizzes and adaptive eTests to provide a variety of assessments, aligned with lecture topics and contemporary real-word scenarios. It was found that the presence of both formative and summative tasks in the assessment scheme complemented each other, kept students constantly motivated and engaged in learning, and resulted in a good learning experience for them. The study provide evidence, and valuable insights and tips for lecturers in similar degree programs as to how they could modify pedagogical styles in their courses for better learning experiences for students and improved teaching ratings for themselves.   Keywords: Pedagogy, Integrated assessment, Case-based learning, Online quiz, Adaptive eLearning

  12. Integrating climate change adaptation in energy planning and decision-making - Key challenges and opportunities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olhoff, Anne; Olsen, Karen Holm

    2011-01-01

    management framework is used as the basis for identifying key challenges and opportunities to enhance the integration of climate change adaptation in energy planning and decision-making. Given its importance for raising awareness and for stimulating action by planners and decision-makers, emphasis is placed......Energy systems are significantly vulnerable to current climate variability and extreme events. As climate change becomes more pronounced, the risks and vulnerabilities will be exacerbated. To date, energy sector adaptation issues have received very limited attention. In this paper, a climate risk...... barriers to integration of climate risks and adaptive responses in energy planning and decision making. Both detailed assessments of the costs and benefits of integrating adaptation measures and rougher ‘order of magnitude’ estimates would enhance awareness raising and momentum for action....

  13. 1998 interim 242-A Evaporator tank system integrity assessment report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, C.E.

    1998-07-02

    This Integrity Assessment Report (IAR) is prepared by Fluor Daniel Northwest (FDNW) under contract to Lockheed-Martin Hanford Company (LMHC) for Waste Management Hanford (WMH), the 242-A Evaporator (facility) operations contractor for Fluor Daniel Hanford, and the US Department of Energy, the system owner. The contract specifies that FDNW perform an interim (5 year) integrity assessment of the facility and prepare a written IAR in accordance with Washington Administrative Code (WAC) 173-303-640. The WAC 173-303 defines a treatment, storage, or disposal (TSD) facility tank system as the ``dangerous waste storage or treatment tank and its ancillary equipment and containment.`` This integrity assessment evaluates the two tank systems at the facility: the evaporator vessel, C-A-1 (also called the vapor-liquid separator), and the condensate collection tank, TK-C-100. This IAR evaluates the 242-A facility tank systems up to, but not including, the last valve or flanged connection inside the facility perimeter. The initial integrity assessment performed on the facility evaluated certain subsystems not directly in contact with dangerous waste, such as the steam condensate and used raw water subsystems, to provide technical information. These subsystems were not evaluated in this IAR. The last major upgrade to the facility was project B-534. The facility modifications, as a result of project B-534, were evaluated in the 1993 facility interim integrity assessment. Since that time, the following upgrades have occurred in the facility: installation of a process condensate recycle system, and installation of a package steam boiler to provide steam for the facility. The package boiler is not within the scope of the facility TSD.

  14. 1998 interim 242-A Evaporator tank system integrity assessment report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jensen, C.E.

    1998-01-01

    This Integrity Assessment Report (IAR) is prepared by Fluor Daniel Northwest (FDNW) under contract to Lockheed-Martin Hanford Company (LMHC) for Waste Management Hanford (WMH), the 242-A Evaporator (facility) operations contractor for Fluor Daniel Hanford, and the US Department of Energy, the system owner. The contract specifies that FDNW perform an interim (5 year) integrity assessment of the facility and prepare a written IAR in accordance with Washington Administrative Code (WAC) 173-303-640. The WAC 173-303 defines a treatment, storage, or disposal (TSD) facility tank system as the ''dangerous waste storage or treatment tank and its ancillary equipment and containment.'' This integrity assessment evaluates the two tank systems at the facility: the evaporator vessel, C-A-1 (also called the vapor-liquid separator), and the condensate collection tank, TK-C-100. This IAR evaluates the 242-A facility tank systems up to, but not including, the last valve or flanged connection inside the facility perimeter. The initial integrity assessment performed on the facility evaluated certain subsystems not directly in contact with dangerous waste, such as the steam condensate and used raw water subsystems, to provide technical information. These subsystems were not evaluated in this IAR. The last major upgrade to the facility was project B-534. The facility modifications, as a result of project B-534, were evaluated in the 1993 facility interim integrity assessment. Since that time, the following upgrades have occurred in the facility: installation of a process condensate recycle system, and installation of a package steam boiler to provide steam for the facility. The package boiler is not within the scope of the facility TSD

  15. Landscape ecological assessment: a tool for integrating biodiversity issues in strategic environmental assessment and planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mörtberg, U M; Balfors, B; Knol, W C

    2007-03-01

    To achieve a sustainable development, impacts on biodiversity of urbanisation, new infrastructure projects and other land use changes must be considered on landscape and regional scales. This requires that important decisions are made after a systematic evaluation of environmental impacts. Landscape ecology can provide a conceptual framework for the assessment of consequences of long-term development processes like urbanisation on biodiversity components, and for evaluating and visualising the impacts of alternative planning scenarios. The aim of this paper was to develop methods for integrating biodiversity issues in planning and strategic environmental assessment in an urbanising environment, on landscape and regional levels. In order to test developed methods, a case study was conducted in the region of Stockholm, the capital of Sweden, and the study area embraced the city centre, suburbs and peri-urban areas. Focal species were tested as indicators of habitat quality, quantity and connectivity in the landscape. Predictive modelling of habitat distribution in geographic information systems involved the modelling of focal species occurrences based on empirical data, incorporated in a landscape ecological decision support system. When habitat models were retrieved, they were applied on future planning scenarios in order to predict and assess the impacts on focal species. The scenario involving a diffuse exploitation pattern had the greatest negative impacts on the habitat networks of focal species. The scenarios with concentrated exploitation also had negative impacts, although they were possible to mitigate quite easily. The predictions of the impacts on habitats networks of focal species made it possible to quantify, integrate and visualise the effects of urbanisation scenarios on aspects of biodiversity on a landscape level.

  16. Advances in Methods for Assessing Longitudinal Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Kevin J.; Mazza, Gina L.; Mazzocco, Michèle M. M.

    2016-01-01

    Educational research aims to understand how and why students change over time. With its emphasis on within-person change, latent change score models provide educational researchers with a more general and flexible framework for testing nuanced hypotheses regarding within-person change and between-person differences in within-person change. Models…

  17. Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Botzen, W. J.; Clarke, K. C.; Cutter, S. L.; Hall, J. W.; Merz, B.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Mysiak, J.; Surminski, S.; Kunreuther, H.

    2018-03-01

    The behaviour of individuals, businesses, and government entities before, during, and immediately after a disaster can dramatically affect the impact and recovery time. However, existing risk-assessment methods rarely include this critical factor. In this Perspective, we show why this is a concern, and demonstrate that although initial efforts have inevitably represented human behaviour in limited terms, innovations in flood-risk assessment that integrate societal behaviour and behavioural adaptation dynamics into such quantifications may lead to more accurate characterization of risks and improved assessment of the effectiveness of risk-management strategies and investments. Such multidisciplinary approaches can inform flood-risk management policy development.

  18. 1998 242-A interim evaporator tank system integrity assessment plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, C.E.

    1998-03-31

    Portions of the 242-A Evaporator on the Hanford Site must be assessed to meet the requirements of the Washington State Department of Ecology`s Dangerous Waste Regulation, Washington Administrative Code (WAC) 173-303. The assessment is limited to the provisions of Section 173-303-640. This Integrity Assessment Plan (IAP) identifies tasks which will be performed during the assessment phase and describes the intended assessment techniques. The 242-A Evaporator facility processes waste solutions from most of the operating laboratories and plants of the Hanford Site. The waste solutions are concentrated in the evaporator to a slurry of liquid and crystallized salts. This concentrated slurry is returned to the Tank Farms at a significantly reduce volume. The water vapor from the evaporation process is condensed, filtered, and can be pumped through an ion exchange bed before transfer to a retention basin. The non-condensable portion of the vapor is filtered and continuously monitored before venting to the atmosphere. The 242-A Evaporator will be assessed as seven subsystems. Four of the subsystems store, transport or treat Washington State Dangerous wastes, the other three subsystems are integral parts of the process, however, they do not directly store, transfer, or treat listed dangerous wastes. The facility will be inspected, tested, and analyzed through this assessment. The seven subsystems, defined in detail in Appendix B, are: Evaporator Process and Slurry Subsystem; Vapor Condenser Subsystem; Vessel Vent Subsystem; Process Condensate Subsystem; Steam Condensate Subsystem; Raw Water Disposal Subsystem; and Building and Secondary Containment Subsystem.

  19. 1998 242-A interim evaporator tank system integrity assessment plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jensen, C.E.

    1998-01-01

    Portions of the 242-A Evaporator on the Hanford Site must be assessed to meet the requirements of the Washington State Department of Ecology's Dangerous Waste Regulation, Washington Administrative Code (WAC) 173-303. The assessment is limited to the provisions of Section 173-303-640. This Integrity Assessment Plan (IAP) identifies tasks which will be performed during the assessment phase and describes the intended assessment techniques. The 242-A Evaporator facility processes waste solutions from most of the operating laboratories and plants of the Hanford Site. The waste solutions are concentrated in the evaporator to a slurry of liquid and crystallized salts. This concentrated slurry is returned to the Tank Farms at a significantly reduce volume. The water vapor from the evaporation process is condensed, filtered, and can be pumped through an ion exchange bed before transfer to a retention basin. The non-condensable portion of the vapor is filtered and continuously monitored before venting to the atmosphere. The 242-A Evaporator will be assessed as seven subsystems. Four of the subsystems store, transport or treat Washington State Dangerous wastes, the other three subsystems are integral parts of the process, however, they do not directly store, transfer, or treat listed dangerous wastes. The facility will be inspected, tested, and analyzed through this assessment. The seven subsystems, defined in detail in Appendix B, are: Evaporator Process and Slurry Subsystem; Vapor Condenser Subsystem; Vessel Vent Subsystem; Process Condensate Subsystem; Steam Condensate Subsystem; Raw Water Disposal Subsystem; and Building and Secondary Containment Subsystem

  20. AgMIP: New Results from Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia Regional Integrated Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.

    2014-12-01

    AgMIP conducted the first set of comprehensive regional integrated assessments of climate change impacts on smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia led by researchers from the regions themselves. The project developed new methods integrating climate, crop, livestock and economic models to conduct climate change impact assessments that characterize impacts on smallholder groups. AgMIP projections of climate change impacts on agriculture are more realistic than previous assessments because they take agricultural development into account. Using the best available data and models, the assessments directly evaluated yield, income, and poverty outcomes including the effects of adaptation packages and development pathways. Results show that even with agricultural development, climate change generally will exert negative pressure on yields of smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Without adaptation, climate change leads to increased poverty in some locations in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia compared to a future in which climate change does not occur. Adaptation can significantly improve smallholder farmer responses to climate change. AgMIP expert teams identified improved varieties, sowing practices, fertilizer application, and irrigation applications as prioritized adaptation strategies. These targeted adaptation packages were able to overcome a portion of detrimental impacts but could not compensate completely in many locations. Even in cases where average impact is near zero, vulnerability (i.e., those at risk of loss) can be substantial even when mean impacts are positive.

  1. Development of Improved Caprock Integrity and Risk Assessment Techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruno, Michael [Geomechanics Technologies, Incorporated, Monrovia, CA (United States)

    2014-09-30

    GeoMechanics Technologies has completed a geomechanical caprock integrity analysis and risk assessment study funded through the US Department of Energy. The project included: a detailed review of historical caprock integrity problems experienced in the natural gas storage industry; a theoretical description and documentation of caprock integrity issues; advanced coupled transport flow modelling and geomechanical simulation of three large-scale potential geologic sequestration sites to estimate geomechanical effects from CO₂ injection; development of a quantitative risk and decision analysis tool to assess caprock integrity risks; and, ultimately the development of recommendations and guidelines for caprock characterization and CO₂ injection operating practices. Historical data from gas storage operations and CO₂ sequestration projects suggest that leakage and containment incident risks are on the order of 10-1 to 10-2, which is higher risk than some previous studies have suggested for CO₂. Geomechanical analysis, as described herein, can be applied to quantify risks and to provide operating guidelines to reduce risks. The risk assessment tool developed for this project has been applied to five areas: The Wilmington Graben offshore Southern California, Kevin Dome in Montana, the Louden Field in Illinois, the Sleipner CO₂ sequestration operation in the North Sea, and the In Salah CO₂ sequestration operation in North Africa. Of these five, the Wilmington Graben area represents the highest relative risk while the Kevin Dome area represents the lowest relative risk.

  2. Precision Security: Integrating Video Surveillance with Surrounding Environment Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenfeng Wang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Video surveillance plays a vital role in maintaining the social security although, until now, large uncertainty still exists in danger understanding and recognition, which can be partly attributed to intractable environment changes in the backgrounds. This article presents a brain-inspired computing of attention value of surrounding environment changes (EC with a processes-based cognition model by introducing a ratio value λ of EC-implications within considered periods. Theoretical models for computation of warning level of EC-implications to the universal video recognition efficiency (quantified as time cost of implication-ratio variations from λk to λk+1, k=1,2,… are further established. Imbedding proposed models into the online algorithms is suggested as a future research priority towards precision security for critical applications and, furthermore, schemes for a practical implementation of such integration are also preliminarily discussed.

  3. Complex Nonlinearity Chaos, Phase Transitions, Topology Change and Path Integrals

    CERN Document Server

    Ivancevic, Vladimir G

    2008-01-01

    Complex Nonlinearity: Chaos, Phase Transitions, Topology Change and Path Integrals is a book about prediction & control of general nonlinear and chaotic dynamics of high-dimensional complex systems of various physical and non-physical nature and their underpinning geometro-topological change. The book starts with a textbook-like expose on nonlinear dynamics, attractors and chaos, both temporal and spatio-temporal, including modern techniques of chaos–control. Chapter 2 turns to the edge of chaos, in the form of phase transitions (equilibrium and non-equilibrium, oscillatory, fractal and noise-induced), as well as the related field of synergetics. While the natural stage for linear dynamics comprises of flat, Euclidean geometry (with the corresponding calculation tools from linear algebra and analysis), the natural stage for nonlinear dynamics is curved, Riemannian geometry (with the corresponding tools from nonlinear, tensor algebra and analysis). The extreme nonlinearity – chaos – corresponds to th...

  4. Assessing sensitivity to change: choosing the appropriate change coefficient

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stratford Paul W

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The past 20-years have seen the development and evaluation of many health status measures. Unlike the high standards demanded of those who conduct and report clinical intervention trials, the methodological rigor for studies examining the sensitivity to change of health status measures are less demanding. It is likely that the absence of a criterion standard for change in health status contributes to this shortcoming. To increase confidence in the results of these types of studies investigators have often calculated multiple change coefficients for the same patient sample. The purpose of this report is to identify the conflict that arises when multiple change coefficients are applied to the same patient sample. Three families of change coefficients based on different assumptions concerning the sample composition are identified: (1 the sample is homogeneous with respect to change; (2 subgroups of patients who truly change by different amounts exist; (3 individual patients, many of whom truly change by different amounts exist. We present several analyses which illustrate a major conceptual conflict: the signal (a measure's true ability to detect change for some of these coefficients appears in the noise term (measurement error of the others. We speculate that this dilemma occurs as a result of insufficient preparatory work such as pilot studies to establish the likely change characteristic of the patient population of interest. Uncertainty in the choice of change coefficient could be overcome by conducting pilot studies to ascertain the likely change characteristic of the population of interest. Once the population's change characteristic is identified, the choice of change coefficient should be clear.

  5. Assessing habitat selection when availability changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arthur, S.; Garner, G.; ,

    1996-01-01

    We present a method of comparing data on habitat use and availability that allows availability to differ among observations. This method is applicable when habitats change over time and when animals are unable to move throughout a predetermined study area between observations. We used maximum-likelihood techniques to derive an index that estimates the probability that each habitat type would be used if all were equally available. We also demonstrate how these indices can be used to compare relative use of available habitats, assign them ranks, and assess statistical differences between pairs of indices. The set of these indices for all habitats can be compared between groups of animals that represent different seasons, sex or age classes, or experimental treatments. This method allows quantitative comparisons among types and is not affected by arbitrary decisions about which habitats to include in the study. We provide an example by comparing the availability of four categories of sea ice concentration to their use by adult female polar bears, whose movements were monitored by satellite radio tracking in the Bering and Chukchi Seas during 1990. Use of ice categories by bears was nonrandom, and the pattern of use differed between spring and late summer seasons.

  6. An integrative approach to the assessment of narcissism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roche, Michael J; Pincus, Aaron L; Lukowitsky, Mark R; Ménard, Kim S; Conroy, David E

    2013-01-01

    Narcissism research is poorly calibrated across fields of study in part due to confusion over how to integrate normal and pathological descriptions of narcissism. We argue that pathological and normal narcissism can be integrated in a single model that organizes around self-regulation mechanisms. We present theoretical and empirical support for this interpretation, and demonstrate that modeling pathological and normal narcissism as 2 dimensions underlying the narcissistic character can help to resolve some of the inconsistencies in the field regarding how to best assess adaptive and maladaptive expressions of narcissism.

  7. Integrated Science Assessment (ISA) of Ozone and Related ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Integrated Science Assessment of Ozone and Related Photochemical Oxidants. This document represents a concise synthesis and evaluation of the most policy-relevant science and will ultimately provide the scientific bases for EPA’s decision regarding the adequacy of the current national ambient air quality standards for ozone to protect human health, public welfare, and the environment. Critical evaluation and integration of the evidence on health and environmental effects of ozone to provide scientific support for the review of the NAAQS for ozone.

  8. Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation using an economic pluvial flood risk framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    It is anticipated that climate change is likely to lead to an increasing risk level of flooding in cities in northern Europe. One challenging question is how to best address the increasing flood risk and assess the costs and benefits of adapting to such changes. We established an integrated...... approach for identification and assessment of climate change adaptation options by incorporating climate change impacts, flood inundation modelling, economic tool and risk assessment and management. The framework is further extended and adapted by embedding a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the total...

  9. Integrating Phase-Change Materials into Automotive Thermoelectric Generators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein Altstedde, Mirko; Rinderknecht, Frank; Friedrich, Horst

    2014-06-01

    Because the heat emitted by conventional combustion-engine vehicles during operation has highly transient properties, automotive thermoelectric generators (TEG) are intended for a particular operating state (design point). This, however, leads to two problems. First, whenever the combustion engine runs at low load, the maximum operating temperature cannot be properly utilised; second, a combustion engine at high load requires partial diversion of exhaust gas away from the TEG to protect the thermoelectric modules. An attractive means of stabilising dynamic exhaust behaviour (thereby keeping the TEG operating status at the design point for as long as possible) is use of latent heat storage, also known as phase-change materials (PCM). By positioning PCM between module and exhaust heat conduit, and choosing a material with a phase-change temperature matching the module's optimum operating temperature, it can be used as heat storage. This paper presents results obtained during examination of the effect of integration of latent heat storage on the potential of automotive TEG to convert exhaust heat. The research resulted in the development of a concept based on the initial integration idea, followed by proof of concept by use of a specially created prototype. In addition, the potential amount of energy obtained by use of a PCM-equipped TEG was calculated. The simulations indicated a significant increase in electrical energy was obtained in the selected test cycle.

  10. Assessment at North Carolina State University: Adapting to Change in the Workplace

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bresciani, Marilee J.; Griffiths, Jane H.; Rust, Jon P.

    2009-01-01

    Effectively introducing change in job responsibilities, particularly when dealing with tenured faculty, can be challenging. More often, additions or changes to work tasks, such as integrating assessment procedures into existing work tasks, requires employees to apply new and/or more complex knowledge, skill, and ability. When compared to…

  11. Structural Integrity Assessment of Reactor Containment Subjected to Aircraft Crash

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Junyong; Chang, Yoonsuk

    2013-01-01

    When an accident occurs at the NPP, containment building which acts as the last barrier should be assessed and analyzed structural integrity by internal loading or external loading. On many occasions that can occur in the containment internal such as LOCA(Loss Of Coolant Accident) are already reflected to design. Likewise, there are several kinds of accidents that may occur from the outside of containment such as earthquakes, hurricanes and strong wind. However, aircraft crash that at outside of containment is not reflected yet in domestic because NPP sites have been selected based on the probabilistic method. After intentional aircraft crash such as World Trade Center and Pentagon accident in US, social awareness for safety of infrastructure like NPP was raised world widely and it is time for assessment of aircraft crash in domestic. The object of this paper is assessment of reactor containment subjected to aircraft crash by FEM(Finite Element Method). In this paper, assessment of structural integrity of containment building subjected to certain aircraft crash was carried out. Verification of structure integrity of containment by intentional severe accident. Maximum stress 61.21MPa of horizontal shell crash does not penetrate containment. Research for more realistic results needed by steel reinforced concrete model

  12. New unified fracture toughness estimation scheme for structural integrity assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wallin, K.; Nevasmaa, P. [VTT, Espoo (Finland); Bannister, A. [Research and Development, British Steel plc., Swinden Technology Centre Rotherham (United Kingdom)

    1998-12-31

    At present, treatment of fracture toughness data varies depending on the type of data (K{sub IC}, J, CTOD) that are available for fracture mechanics analysis. This complicates structural integrity assessment and makes it difficult to apply any single, unified procedure. Within the Brite-Euram project `SINTAP` a fracture toughness estimation scheme has been developed for the unified treatment of data for use in structural integrity assessment. As a procedure, it can be applied to Charpy data, as well as to fracture toughness data, and is suitable for the treatment of data at both single and different temperatures. The data sets may contain results from both homogeneous and inhomogeneous material, making the procedure applicable also to welded joints. The procedure allows fracture toughness assessment with quantified probability and confidence levels. Irrespective of the type of the original data, one material-specific K{sub mat} value representing a conservative estimate of the mean fracture toughness is obtained (with its probability distribution). This information can then be applied to structural integrity assessment. (orig.) 4 refs.

  13. New unified fracture toughness estimation scheme for structural integrity assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wallin, K; Nevasmaa, P [VTT, Espoo (Finland); Bannister, A [Research and Development, British Steel plc., Swinden Technology Centre Rotherham (United Kingdom)

    1999-12-31

    At present, treatment of fracture toughness data varies depending on the type of data (K{sub IC}, J, CTOD) that are available for fracture mechanics analysis. This complicates structural integrity assessment and makes it difficult to apply any single, unified procedure. Within the Brite-Euram project `SINTAP` a fracture toughness estimation scheme has been developed for the unified treatment of data for use in structural integrity assessment. As a procedure, it can be applied to Charpy data, as well as to fracture toughness data, and is suitable for the treatment of data at both single and different temperatures. The data sets may contain results from both homogeneous and inhomogeneous material, making the procedure applicable also to welded joints. The procedure allows fracture toughness assessment with quantified probability and confidence levels. Irrespective of the type of the original data, one material-specific K{sub mat} value representing a conservative estimate of the mean fracture toughness is obtained (with its probability distribution). This information can then be applied to structural integrity assessment. (orig.) 4 refs.

  14. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  15. Integrated energy planning: Strategies to mitigate climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ortiz, Johnny N; Sheffield, John W [University of Missouri-Rolla (United States)

    1997-07-01

    The framework convention on climate change, signed by more than 150 governments worldwide in June 1992, calls on parties to the convention undertaken inventories of national sources and sinks of greenhouse gases and to develop plans for responding to climate change. The energy sector is comprised of the major energy demand sectors (industry, residential and commercial, transport and agriculture), and the energy supply sector, which consists of resource extraction, conversion, and delivery of energy products. Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions occur at various points in the sector, from resource extraction to end use application, and accordingly, options for mitigation exist at various points. In most countries, will be a major focus of GHG mitigation analysis. The primary focus of this paper is on the identification of strategies that can mitigate climate changes on the basis of integrated energy planing analysis. The overall approach follows a methodology developed by the U.S. Country Studies Program under the framework of the Convention's commitments. It involves the development of scenarios based on energy uses and evaluation of specific technologies that can satisfy demands for energy services. One can compare technologies based on their relative cost to achieve a unit of GHG reduction and other features of interest. This approach gives equal weight to both energy supply and energy demand options. A variety of screening criteria including indicators of cost-effectiveness as well as non-economic analysis concerns, can be used to identify and assess promising options, which can then be combined to create one or more scenarios. Mitigation scenarios are evaluated against the backdrop of a baseline scenario, which simulates assumed to take place in the absence of mitigation efforts. Mitigation scenarios can be designed to meet specific emission reduction targets or to simulate the effect of specific policy inventions. The paper ends with an application using a

  16. Assessing the Impacts of Wind Integration in the Western Provinces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sopinka, Amy

    Increasing carbon dioxide levels and the fear of irreversible climate change has prompted policy makers to implement renewable portfolio standards. These renewable portfolio standards are meant to encourage the adoption of renewable energy technologies thereby reducing carbon emissions associated with fossil fuel-fired electricity generation. The ability to efficiently adopt and utilize high levels of renewable energy technology, such as wind power, depends upon the composition of the extant generation within the grid. Western Canadian electric grids are poised to integrate high levels of wind and although Alberta has sufficient and, at times, an excess supply of electricity, it does not have the inherent generator flexibility required to mirror the variability of its wind generation. British Columbia, with its large reservoir storage capacities and rapid ramping hydroelectric generation could easily provide the firming services required by Alberta; however, the two grids are connected only by a small, constrained intertie. We use a simulation model to assess the economic impacts of high wind penetrations in the Alberta grid under various balancing protocols. We find that adding wind capacity to the system impacts grid reliability, increasing the frequency of system imbalances and unscheduled intertie flow. In order for British Columbia to be viable firming resource, it must have sufficient generation capability to meet and exceed the province's electricity self-sufficiency requirements. We use a linear programming model to evaluate the province's ability to meet domestic load under various water and trade conditions. We then examine the effects of drought and wind penetration on the interconnected Alberta -- British Columbia system given differing interconnection sizes.

  17. An Integrated Safety Assessment Methodology for Generation IV Nuclear Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leahy, Timothy J.

    2010-01-01

    The Generation IV International Forum (GIF) Risk and Safety Working Group (RSWG) was created to develop an effective approach for the safety of Generation IV advanced nuclear energy systems. Early work of the RSWG focused on defining a safety philosophy founded on lessons learned from current and prior generations of nuclear technologies, and on identifying technology characteristics that may help achieve Generation IV safety goals. More recent RSWG work has focused on the definition of an integrated safety assessment methodology for evaluating the safety of Generation IV systems. The methodology, tentatively called ISAM, is an integrated 'toolkit' consisting of analytical techniques that are available and matched to appropriate stages of Generation IV system concept development. The integrated methodology is intended to yield safety-related insights that help actively drive the evolving design throughout the technology development cycle, potentially resulting in enhanced safety, reduced costs, and shortened development time.

  18. Technology integration performance assessment using lean principles in health care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rico, Florentino; Yalcin, Ali; Eikman, Edward A

    2015-01-01

    This study assesses the impact of an automated infusion system (AIS) integration at a positron emission tomography (PET) center based on "lean thinking" principles. The authors propose a systematic measurement system that evaluates improvement in terms of the "8 wastes." This adaptation to the health care context consisted of performance measurement before and after integration of AIS in terms of time, utilization of resources, amount of materials wasted/saved, system variability, distances traveled, and worker strain. The authors' observations indicate that AIS stands to be very effective in a busy PET department, such as the one in Moffitt Cancer Center, owing to its accuracy, pace, and reliability, especially after the necessary adjustments are made to reduce or eliminate the source of errors. This integration must be accompanied by a process reengineering exercise to realize the full potential of AIS in reducing waste and improving patient care and worker satisfaction. © The Author(s) 2014.

  19. Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society (ACCESS): Integrated perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crépin, Anne-Sophie; Karcher, Michael; Gascard, Jean-Claude

    2017-12-01

    This introduction to the special issue presents an overview of the wide range of results produced during the European Union project Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society (ACCESS). This project assessed the main impacts of climate change on Arctic Ocean's geophysical variables and how these impending changes could be expected to impact directly and indirectly on socio-economic activities like transportation, marine sea food production and resource exploitation. Related governance issues were examined. These results were used to develop several management tools that can live on beyond ACCESS. In this article, we synthesize most of the project results in the form of tentative responses to questions raised during the project. By doing so, we put the findings of the project in a broader perspective and introduce the contributions made in the different articles published in this special issue.

  20. Usefulness of alternative integrative assessment methodologies in public decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erickson, L. E.; Litchfield, J. W.; Currie, J. W.; McDonald, C. L.; Adams, R. C.

    1978-07-01

    Many diverse social, economic, and environmental effects are associated with each of the available energy development alternatives. The assessment of the costs, risks, and benefits of these energy development options is an important function of the U. S. Department of Energy. This task is more difficult when no single alternative is better than the others in all respects. This paper compares benefit-cost and multi-attribute utility analysis as decision aids for these more difficult and more common assessment cases. PNL has developed expertise in making these assessments through its involvement since the Calvert Cliffs decision in both the preparation of Environmental Impact Statements and the development of methods to make these statements more thorough and responsive to the spirit of the National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA). Since 1973 PNL has had continuing efforts to quantify, value, and compare all of the major factors which influence the overall impacts of energy development options. An important part of this work has been the measurement and incorporation of the relative values which community groups place on these conflicting factors. Such difficult assessment problems could be approached in many ways including the use of benefit-cost or multi-attribute utility analysis. This paper addresses the following questions: (1) Should an integrative assessment methodology be used for the overall assessment of these costs, risks, and benefits. (2) If an integrative assessment methodology is to be used, what alternative methods are available and what should be the basis for selecting a method. (3) Is it possible to use one of the available alternatives for one portion of the assessment and another for another portion of the assessment. The answers to these questions presented in this report are applicable to most public decision problems.

  1. An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

  2. USGS science for the Nation's changing coasts; shoreline change assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieler, E. Robert; Hapke, Cheryl J.

    2011-01-01

    The coastline of the United States features some of the most popular tourist and recreational destinations in the world and is the site of intense residential, commercial, and industrial development. The coastal zone also has extensive and pristine natural areas, with diverse ecosystems providing essential habitat and resources that support wildlife, fish, and human use. Coastal erosion is a widespread process along most open-ocean shores of the United States that affects both developed and natural coastlines. As the coast changes, there are a wide range of ways that change can affect coastal communities, habitats, and the physical characteristics of the coast?including beach erosion, shoreline retreat, land loss, and damage to infrastructure. Global climate change will likely increase the rate of coastal change. A recent study of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast, for example, found that it is virtually certain that sandy beaches will erode faster in the future as sea level rises because of climate change. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is responsible for conducting research on coastal change hazards, understanding the processes that cause coastal change, and developing models to predict future change. To understand and adapt to shoreline change, accurate information regarding the past and present configurations of the shoreline is essential. A comprehensive, nationally consistent analysis of shoreline movement is needed. To meet this national need, the USGS is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean coasts of the conterminous United States and parts of Alaska and Hawaii, as well as the coasts of the Great Lakes.

  3. Safety culture' is integrating 'human' into risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugimoto, Taiji

    2014-01-01

    Significance of Fukushima nuclear power accident requested reconsideration of safety standards, of which we had usually no doubt. Risk assessment standard (JIS B 9702), Which was used for repetition of database preparation and cumulative assessment, defined allowable risk and residual risk. However, work site and immediate assessment was indispensable beside such assessment so as to ensure safety. Risk of casualties was absolutely not acceptable in principle and judgments to approve allowable risk needed accountability, which was reminded by safety culture proposed by IAEA and also identified by investigation of organizational cause of Columbia accident. Actor of safety culture would be organization and individual, and mainly individual. Realization of safety culture was conducted by personnel having moral consciousness and firm sense of mission in the course of jobs and working daily with sweat pouring. Safety engineering/technology should have framework integrating human as such totality. (T. Tanaka)

  4. THE ASSESSMENT AND USE OF INTEGRATED PRODUCT POLICY IN POLAND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna ANDRYKIEWICZ

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the implementation of Integrated Product Policy in Poland in the light of the European activities. It analyses the EU laws within this scope. It assesses the progress of LCA implementation, ecolabelling, ecotaxes, EMAS and green public procurement in Poland. It explains the reasons of slow IPP implementation in Polish organisations. It mainly refers to the distribution and promotion of ecolabelling, based on empirical research in Germany and Poland.

  5. Using models in Integrated Ecosystem Assessment of coastal areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solidoro, Cosimo; Bandelj, Vinko; Cossarini, Gianpiero; Melaku Canu, Donata; Libralato, Simone

    2014-05-01

    Numerical Models can greatly contribute to integrated ecological assessment of coastal and marine systems. Indeed, models can: i) assist in the identification of efficient sampling strategy; ii) provide space interpolation and time extrapolation of experiemtanl data which are based on the knowedge on processes dynamics and causal realtionships which is coded within the model, iii) provide estimates of hardly measurable indicators. Furthermore model can provide indication on potential effects of implementation of alternative management policies. Finally, by providing a synthetic representation of an ideal system, based on its essential dynamic, model return a picture of ideal behaviour of a system in the absence of external perturbation, alteration, noise, which might help in the identification of reference behaivuor. As an important example, model based reanalyses of biogeochemical and ecological properties are an urgent need for the estimate of the environmental status and the assessment of efficacy of conservation and environmental policies, also with reference to the enforcement of the European MSFD. However, the use of numerical models, and particularly of ecological models, in modeling and in environmental management still is far from be the rule, possibly because of a lack in realizing the benefits which a full integration of modeling and montoring systems might provide, possibly because of a lack of trust in modeling results, or because many problems still exists in the development, validation and implementation of models. For istance, assessing the validity of model results is a complex process that requires the definition of appropriate indicators, metrics, methodologies and faces with the scarcity of real-time in-situ biogeochemical data. Furthermore, biogeochemical models typically consider dozens of variables which are heavily undersampled. Here we show how the integration of mathematical model and monitoring data can support integrated ecosystem

  6. WWER 440 integrity assessment with respect to PTS events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hrazsky, M; Mikua, M; Hermansky, P [Nuclear Power Plant Research Inst. Trnava Inc., Trnava (Slovakia)

    1997-09-01

    The present state of art in WWER 440 RPV integrity assessment with respect to PTS events utilized in Slovakia is reviewed briefly in this paper. Recent results of some PTS`s (very severe) analyses, shortly described in our paper, have confirmed the necessity of elaboration of new more sophisticated procedures again. Such methodology should be based on prepared IAEA Guidance. (author). 13 refs, 1 fig.

  7. Route assessment using comparative risk factors integrated through a GIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toth, D.M.; O'Connell, W.J.

    1996-01-01

    The assessment of potential alternative routes for the shipment of spent nuclear fuel was simplified through the use of comparative risk factors evaluated using detailed route and environmental attributes. The route characteristics, integrated into risk measures, vary strongly with location and were developed from national, state, and local sources. The route data and evaluation were managed using a geographic information system (GIS). An assessment of four real North Florida routes was performed and an interstate highway route exhibited the lowest risk based on the application of the risk factors

  8. In a Time of Change: Integrating the Arts and Humanities with Climate Change Science in Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leigh, M.; Golux, S.; Franzen, K.

    2011-12-01

    The arts and humanities have a powerful capacity to create lines of communication between the public, policy and scientific spheres. A growing network of visual and performing artists, writers and scientists has been actively working together since 2007 to integrate scientific and artistic perspectives on climate change in interior Alaska. These efforts have involved field workshops and collaborative creative processes culminating in public performances and a visual art exhibit. The most recent multimedia event was entitled In a Time of Change: Envisioning the Future, and challenged artists and scientists to consider future scenarios of climate change. This event included a public performance featuring original theatre, modern dance, Alaska Native Dance, poetry and music that was presented concurrently with an art exhibit featuring original works by 24 Alaskan visual artists. A related effort targeted K12 students, through an early college course entitled Climate Change and Creative Expression, which was offered to high school students at a predominantly Alaska Native charter school and integrated climate change science, creative writing, theatre and dance. Our program at Bonanza Creek Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site is just one of many successful efforts to integrate arts and humanities with science within and beyond the NSF LTER Program. The efforts of various LTER sites to engage the arts and humanities with science, the public and policymakers have successfully generated excitement, facilitated mutual understanding, and promoted meaningful dialogue on issues facing science and society. The future outlook for integration of arts and humanities with science appears promising, with increasing interest from artists, scientists and scientific funding agencies.

  9. Sea Extremes: Integrated impact assessment in coastal climate adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Knudsen, Per; Broge, Niels

    2016-01-01

    protection measures, topography, and infrastructure to provide a more complete picture of the water-related impact from climate change at an exposed coastal location. Results show that future sea extremes evaluated from extreme value statistics may, indeed, have a large impact. The integrated effects from......We investigate effects of sea level rise and a change in precipitation pattern on coastal flooding hazards. Historic and present in situ and satellite data of water and groundwater levels, precipitation, vertical ground motion, geology,and geotechnical soil properties are combined with flood...... research advances and projections for the future are updated....

  10. MRI assessment of whole-brain structural changes in aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Hui; Siu, William; D'Arcy, Ryan Cn; Black, Sandra E; Grajauskas, Lukas A; Singh, Sonia; Zhang, Yunting; Rockwood, Kenneth; Song, Xiaowei

    2017-01-01

    One of the central features of brain aging is the accumulation of multiple age-related structural changes, which occur heterogeneously in individuals and can have immediate or potential clinical consequences. Each of these deficits can coexist and interact, producing both independent and additive impacts on brain health. Many of the changes can be visualized using MRI. To collectively assess whole-brain structural changes, the MRI-based Brain Atrophy and Lesion Index (BALI) has been developed. In this study, we validate this whole-brain health assessment approach using several clinical MRI examinations. Data came from three independent studies: the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative Phase II (n=950; women =47.9%; age =72.7±7.4 years); the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (n=722; women =55.1%; age =72.7±9.9 years); and the Tianjin Medical University General Hospital Research database on older adults (n=170; women =60.0%; age =62.9±9.3 years). The 3.0-Tesla MRI scans were evaluated using the BALI rating scheme on the basis of T1-weighted (T1WI), T2-weighted (T2WI), T2-weighted fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (T2-FLAIR), and T2*-weighted gradient-recalled echo (T2*GRE) images. Atrophy and lesion changes were commonly seen in each MRI test. The BALI scores based on different sequences were highly correlated (Spearman r 2 >0.69; P age ( r 2 >0.29; P 26.48, P aging and dementia-related decline of structural brain health. Inclusion of additional MRI tests increased lesion differentiation. Further research is to integrate MRI tests for a clinical tool to aid the diagnosis and intervention of brain aging.

  11. Domestic change in the face of European Integration and Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynggaard, Kennet

    2011-01-01

    epistemological concerns within the Europeanization literature, this in-the-making research agenda is also faced with a number of methodological challenges. This article deals with some of the most pressing methodological challenges we face when conducting empirical research and moving towards more comprehensive...... accounts of domestic change. Drawing on methodologies known from comparative politics and discourse analysis, the article argues in favour of three methodological moves: (1) from top-down towards bottom-up methodological set-ups; (2) from counterfactual analysis towards compound temporal comparative......Before the early 2000s, research on Europeanization and globalization developed largely independently of each other. Since then a limited, yet increasing, number of studies have shown an interest in investigating and differentiating between the domestic implications of European integration - known...

  12. Quality of life and BMI changes in youth participating in an integrated pediatric obesity treatment program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratt, Keeley J; Lazorick, Suzanne; Lamson, Angela L; Ivanescu, Andrada; Collier, David N

    2013-07-10

    Changes in Quality of Life (QOL) measures over time with treatment of obesity have not previously been described for youth. We describe the changes from baseline through two follow up visits in youth QOL (assessed by the Pediatric Quality Life Inventory, PedsQL4.0), teen depression (assessed by the Patient Health Questionnaire, PHQ9A), Body Mass Index (BMI) and BMI z-score. We also report caregiver proxy ratings of youth QOL. A sample of 267 pairs of youth and caregiver participants were recruited at their first visit to an outpatient weight-treatment clinic that provides care integrated between a physician, dietician, and mental health provider; of the 267, 113 attended a visit two (V2) follow-up appointment, and 48 attended visit three (V3). We investigated multiple factors longitudinally experienced by youth who are overweight and their caregivers across up to three different integrated care visits. We determined relationships at baseline in QOL, PHQ9A, and BMI z-score, as well as changes in variables over time using linear mixed models with time as a covariate. Overall across three visits the results indicate that youth had slight declines in relative BMI, significant increases in their QOL and improvements in depression. We encourage clinicians and researchers to track youth longitudinally throughout treatment to investigate not only youth's BMI changes, but also psychosocial changes including QOL.

  13. POSTMORTAL CHANGES AND ASSESSMENT OF POSTMORTEM INTERVAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edin Šatrović

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes in a simple way the changes that occur in the body after death.They develop in a specific order, and the speed of their development and their expression are strongly influenced by various endogenous and exogenous factors. The aim of the authors is to indicate the characteristics of the postmortem changes, and their significance in establishing time since death, which can be established precisely within 72 hours. Accurate evaluation of the age of the corpse based on the common changes is not possible with longer postmortem intervals, so the entomological findings become the most significant change on the corpse for determination of the postmortem interval (PMI.

  14. Training courses on integrated safety assessment modelling for waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mallants, D.

    2007-01-01

    Near-surface or deep repositories of radioactive waste are being developed and evaluated all over the world. Also, existing repositories for low- and intermediate-level waste often need to be re-evaluated to extend their license or to obtain permission for final closure. The evaluation encompasses both a technical feasibility as well as a safety analysis. The long term safety is usually demonstrated by means of performance or safety assessment. For this purpose computer models are used that calculate the migration of radionuclides from the conditioned radioactive waste, through engineered barriers to the environment (groundwater, surface water, and biosphere). Integrated safety assessment modelling addresses all relevant radionuclide pathways from source to receptor (man), using in combination various computer codes in which the most relevant physical, chemical, mechanical, or even microbiological processes are mathematically described. SCK-CEN organizes training courses in Integrated safety assessment modelling that are intended for individuals who have either a controlling or supervising role within the national radwaste agencies or regulating authorities, or for technical experts that carry out the actual post-closure safety assessment for an existing or new repository. Courses are organised by the Department of Waste and Disposal

  15. Overview of integrative assessment of marine systems: the Ecosystem Approach in practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angel eBorja

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Traditional and emerging human activities are increasingly putting pressures on marine ecosystems and impacting their ability to sustain ecological and human communities. To evaluate the health status of marine ecosystems we need a science-based, integrated Ecosystem Approach, that incorporates knowledge of ecosystem function and services provided that can be used to track how management decisions change the health of marine ecosystems. Although many methods have been developed to assess the status of single components of the ecosystem, few exist for assessing multiple ecosystem components in a holistic way. To undertake such an integrative assessment, it is necessary to understand the response of marine systems to human pressures. Hence, innovative monitoring is needed to obtain data to determine the health of large marine areas, and in an holistic way. Here we review five existing methods that address both of these needs (monitoring and assessment: the Ecosystem Health Assessment Tool; a method for the Marine Strategy Framework Directive in the Bay of Biscay; the Ocean Health Index; the Marine Biodiversity Assessment Tool; and the Nested Environmental status Assessment Tool. We have highlighted their main characteristics and analyzing their commonalities and differences, in terms of: use of the Ecosystem Approach; inclusion of multiple components in the assessment; use of reference conditions; use of integrative assessments; use of a range of values to capture the status; weighting ecosystem components when integrating; determine the uncertainty; ensure spatial and temporal comparability; use of robust monitoring approaches; and address pressures and impacts. Ultimately, for any ecosystem assessment to be effective it needs to be: transparent and repeatable and, in order to inform marine management, the results should be easy to communicate to wide audiences, including scientists, managers and policymakers.

  16. Positional Accuracy Assessment for Effective Shoreline Change ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ghana Mining Journal ... Data quality may be expressed in terms of several indicators such as attributes, temporal or positional accuracies. ... It is concluded that for the purpose of shoreline change analysis, such as shoreline change trends, large scale data sources should be used where possible for accurate ...

  17. Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gehlhaus, Martin W; Gift, Jeffrey S; Hogan, Karen A; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

    2011-07-15

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  18. Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gehlhaus, Martin W.; Gift, Jeffrey S.; Hogan, Karen A.; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M.; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment.

  19. Changing Assessment--Towards a New Assessment Paradigm Using ICT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redecker, Christine; Johannessen, Oystein

    2013-01-01

    This article discusses how Information and Communication Technologies can support 21st century assessment strategies and what needs to be done to ensure that technological advances support and foster pedagogical innovation. Based on an extensive review of the literature, it provides an overview of current ICT-enabled assessment practices, with a…

  20. Integrated assessment and consultation for the preoperative patient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silverman, David G; Rosenbaum, Stanley H

    2009-12-01

    Assessment of the presurgical patient requires interdisciplinary cooperation over the continuum of documentation and optimization of existing disorders, determination of patient resilience and reserve, and planning for subsequent interventions and care. For many patients, evident or suspected morbidities or anticipated surgical disturbance warrant specialty consultation. There may be uncertainty as to the optimal processes for a given patient, a limitation attributable to myriad factors, not the least of which is that there is often a paucity of evidence that is directly relevant to a given patient in a given setting. The present article discusses these limitations and describes a framework for documentation, optimization, risk assessment, and planning, as well as a uniform grading of existing morbidities and anticipated perioperative disturbances for patients requiring integrated assessment and consultation.

  1. Practitioner survey of the state of health integration in environmental assessment: The case of northern Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noble, Bram; Bronson, Jackie

    2006-01-01

    Based on a case study of health integration in Canadian northern EA, this paper further demonstrates the lack of consistent integration of health in EA practice. A survey was administered to northern EA and health practitioners, administrators and special interest groups to assess current northern health assessment practices, the scope of health in EA, EA performance with regard to health assessment and the perceived barriers to health integration. Results suggest that health is currently recognized as an important component of northern EA and is addressed in the majority of cases; however, health is addressed primarily during the pre-decision stages of EA and less often during post-decision follow-up and monitoring. Moreover, when health is addressed, attention is limited to the physical components of health and health impacts due to physical environmental change, with considerably less attention given to the social aspects of health. Results also suggest dissent between EA practitioners, health practitioners and other interests concerning the overall state of health in EA; however, there is consensus on the key challenges to improved integration, namely differences in understanding of the scope of health and expectations of EA to assess health impacts; limited coordination between EA and health practitioners; limited scope and requirements of current EA legislation for health assessment; and the lack of supporting EA methods and frameworks

  2. A Scheme for the Integrated Assessment of Mitigation Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Held, H.; Edenhofer, O.

    2003-04-01

    After some consensus has been achieved that the global mean temperature will have increased by 1.4 to 5.8^oC at the end of this century in case of continued ``business as usual'' greenhouse gas emissions, society has to decide if or which mitigation measures should be taken. A new integrated assessment project on this very issue will be started at PIK in spring 2003. The assessment will cover economic aspects as well as potential side effects of various measures. In the economic module, the effects of investment decisions on technological innovation will be explicitly taken into account. Special emphasize will be put on the issue of uncertainty. Hereby we distinguish the uncertainty related to the Integrated Assessment modules, including the economic module, from the fact that no over-complex system can be fully captured by a model. Therefore, a scheme for the assessment of the ``residual'', the non-modelled part of the system, needs to be worked out. The scheme must be truly interdisciplinary, i.e. must be applicable to at least the natural science and the economic aspects. A scheme based on meta-principles like minimum persistence, ubiquity, or irreversibility of potential measures appears to be a promising candidate. An implementation of ubiquity as at present successfully operated in environmental chemistry may serve as a guideline [1]. Here, the best-known mechanism within a complex impact chain of potentially harmful chemicals, their transport, is captured by a reaction-diffusion mechanism [2]. begin{thebibliography}{0} bibitem{s} M. Scheringer, Persistence and spatial range as endpoints of an exposure-based assessment of organic chemicals. Environ. Sci. Technol. 30: 1652-1659 (1996). bibitem{h} H. Held, Robustness of spatial ranges of environmental chemicals with respect to model dimension, accepted for publication in Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assessment.

  3. Challenges in Incorporating Climate Change Adaptation into Integrated Water Resources Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirshen, P. H.; Cardwell, H.; Kartez, J.; Merrill, S.

    2011-12-01

    Over the last few decades, integrated water resources management (IWRM), under various names, has become the accepted philosophy for water management in the USA. While much is still to be learned about how to actually carry it out, implementation is slowly moving forward - spurred by both legislation and the demands of stakeholders. New challenges to IWRM have arisen because of climate change. Climate change has placed increased demands on the creativities of planners and engineers because they now must design systems that will function over decades of hydrologic uncertainties that dwarf any previous hydrologic or other uncertainties. Climate and socio-economic monitoring systems must also now be established to determine when the future climate has changed sufficiently to warrant undertaking adaptation. The requirements for taking some actions now and preserving options for future actions as well as the increased risk of social inequities in climate change impacts and adaptation are challenging experts in stakeholder participation. To meet these challenges, an integrated methodology is essential that builds upon scenario analysis, risk assessment, statistical decision theory, participatory planning, and consensus building. This integration will create cross-disciplinary boundaries for these disciplines to overcome.

  4. ANL/CANTIA code for steam generator tube integrity assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Revankar, S.T.; Wolf, B.; Majumdar, S.; Riznic, J.R.

    2009-01-01

    Steam generator (SG) tubes have an important safety role in CANDU type reactors and Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR) because they constitute one of the primary barriers between the radioactive and non-radioactive sides of the nuclear plant. The SG tubes are susceptible to corrosion and damage. A failure of a single steam generator tube, or even a few tubes, would not be a serious safety-related event in a CANDU reactor. The leakage from a ruptured tube is within makeup capacity of the primary heat transport system, so that as long as the operator takes the correct actions, the off-site consequences will be negligible. A sufficient safety margin against tube rupture used to be the basis for a variety of maintenance strategies developed to maintain a suitable level of plant safety and reliability. Several through-wall flaws may remain in operation and potentially contribute to the total primary-to-secondary leak rate. Assessment of the conditional probabilities of tube failures, leak rates, and ultimately risk of exceeding licensing dose limits has been used for steam generator tube fitness-for-service assessment. The advantage of this type of analysis is that it avoids the excessive conservatism typically present in deterministic methodologies. However, it requires considerable effort and expense to develop all of the failure, leakage, probability of detection, and flaw growth distributions and models necessary to obtain meaningful results from a probabilistic model. The Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) recently developed the CANTIA methodology for probabilistic assessment of inspection strategies for steam generator tubes as a direct effect on the probability of tube failure and primary-to-secondary leak rate Recently Argonne National Laboratory has developed tube integrity and leak rate models under Integrated Steam Generator Tube Integrity Program (ISGTIP-2). These models have been incorporated in the ANL/CANTIA code. This paper presents the ANL

  5. Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects: Rate adjustment: Environmental assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-08-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) has determined that the proposed firm power rate increase for the Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects (Integrated Projects) power would not constitute a major Federal action significantly affecting the quality of the human environment within the meaning of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA, 42 USC 4321, et seq.) and, as such, does not require the preparation of an environmental impact statement (EIS). This determination is based on an environmental assessment (EA) prepared by the Western Area Power Administration (Western) dated August 1990 (DOE/EA-0457). The EA identifies and evaluates the potential environmental and socioeconomic effects of the proposed action, and based on the analysis contained therein, DOE concludes that the impacts to the human environment resulting from the implementation of the rate increase would be insignificant

  6. Efficient Assessment of the Environment for Integral Urban Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rost, Grit; Londong, Jörg

    2015-04-01

    Introduction: Sustainable water supply and sanitation is fundamental, especially in countries that are also particularly vulnerable to water-related problems. The Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) approach makes sure that water management is organised in a transdisciplinary way taking into account the river basin, the hydrologic system and the appendant organisation like culture, law and economics. The main objective of IWRM is the sustainable organisation of water resources quality and quantity (GWP and INBO 2009). However there are more important targets in sustainable use of water resources. New sanitation systems are focussing on adding value and maintaining essential resources in circular flow. Focussing on material fluxes can contribute on water quality, food security, sustainable use of renewable energy, adaption on water scarcity and also on rising water and sanitation demand because of rapid urban and suburban growth (Price and Vojinović 2011; Rost et al 2013; Stäudel et al 2014). Problem: There are several planning tools for IWRM as well as for urban water management. But to complete the IWRM approach for the resource oriented concept a systematic assessment tool is missing. The assessment of crucial indicators obviously requires a lot of data from different subjects/disciplines, in different scales of detail and in different accuracy and in data acquisition (Karthe et al 2014). On the one hand there will be data abundance and on the other hand the data can be unavailable or unfeasible for example because of scale and specification(Rost et al 2013). Such a complex integrated concept requires a clearly worked out structure for the way of managing and priority setting. Purpose: To get systematic in the complex planning process the toolbox model is going to develop. The assessment of the environmental screening (one part of the toolbox) is going to be presented in this paper. The first step of assessment leans on the assertion that each of the

  7. Development of an Integrated Agricultural Planning Model Considering Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santikayasa, I. P.

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this study is to develop an agriculture planning model in order to sustain the future water use under the estimation of crop water requirement, water availability and future climate projection. For this purpose, the Citarum river basin which is located in West Java - Indonesia is selected as the study area. Two emission scenarios A2 and B2 were selected. For the crop water requirement estimation, the output of HadCM3 AOGCM is statistically downscale using SDSM and used as the input for WEAP model developed by SEI (Stockholm Environmental Institute). The reliability of water uses is assessed by comparing the irrigation water demand and the water allocation for the irrigation area. The water supply resources are assessed using the water planning tool. This study shows that temperature and precipitation over the study area are projected to increase in the future. The water availability was projected to increase under both A2 and B2 emission scenarios in the future. The irrigation water requirement is expected to decrease in the future under A2 and B2 scenarios. By comparing the irrigation water demand and water allocation for irrigation, the reliability of agriculture water use is expected to change in the period of 2050s and 2080s while the reliability will not change in 2020s. The reliability under A2 scenario is expected to be higher than B2 scenario. The combination of WEAP and SDSM is significance to use in assessing and allocating the water resources in the region.

  8. Incentives and stability of international climate coalitions: An integrated assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyses the incentives to participate in an international climate agreement and the stability of the resulting climate coalition using the integrated assessment model WITCH. Coalition stability is assessed under alternative assumptions concerning the pure rate of time preference, the aggregation of social welfare, and the severity of climate damages. The profitability, stability, and strong potential internal stability of a number of coalitions, those potentially effective in reducing GHG emissions, is explored in the paper. The main conclusion is that only the grand coalition, i.e. a coalition where all world regions cooperate to reduce emissions, can maintain GHG concentration below 550 ppm CO 2 -eq. However, this coalition is not internally stable, even when allowing for monetary transfers across world regions. Nonetheless, the paper also shows that strongly potentially internally stable coalitions exist, though of smaller size, which can mitigate global warming and limit GHG concentrations to 600 ppm CO 2 -eq. - Highlights: ► We analyse climate coalitions with an integrated assessment model. ► Coalitions’ profitability and stability is analysed under alternative assumptions. ► Effective coalitions should include larger emitters (such as India and China). ► A coalition that achieves 550 ppm CO 2 -eq is not internally stable. ► A stable coalition can achieve around 518 ppme in 2050 and 600 ppme in 2100

  9. Integrating Fuzzy Logic, Optimization, and GIS for Ecological Impact Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bojórquez-Tapia, Luis A.; Juárez, Lourdes; Cruz-Bello, Gustavo

    2002-09-01

    Appraisal of ecological impacts has been problematic because of the behavior of ecological system and the responses of these systems to human intervention are far from fully understood. While it has been relatively easy to itemize the potential ecological impacts, it has been difficult to arrive at accurate predictions of how these impacts affect populations, communities, or ecosystems. Furthermore, the spatial heterogeneity of ecological systems has been overlooked because its examination is practically impossible through matrix techniques, the most commonly used impact assessment approach. Besides, the public has become increasingly aware of the importance of the EIA in decision-making and thus the interpretation of impact significance is complicated further by the different value judgments of stakeholders. Moreover, impact assessments are carried out with a minimum of data, high uncertainty, and poor conceptual understanding. Hence, the evaluation of ecological impacts entails the integration of subjective and often conflicting judgments from a variety of experts and stakeholders. The purpose of this paper is to present an environmental impact assessment approach based on the integration fuzzy logic, geographical information systems and optimization techniques. This approach enables environmental analysts to deal with the intrinsic imprecision and ambiguity associated with the judgments of experts and stakeholders, the description of ecological systems, and the prediction of ecological impacts. The application of this approach is illustrated through an example, which shows how consensus about impact mitigation can be attained within a conflict resolution framework.

  10. Dietary intake assessment using integrated sensors and software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Junqing; Pepin, Eric; Johnson, Eric; Hazel, David; Teredesai, Ankur; Kristal, Alan; Mamishev, Alexander

    2012-02-01

    The area of dietary assessment is becoming increasingly important as obesity rates soar, but valid measurement of the food intake in free-living persons is extraordinarily challenging. Traditional paper-based dietary assessment methods have limitations due to bias, user burden and cost, and therefore improved methods are needed to address important hypotheses related to diet and health. In this paper, we will describe the progress of our mobile Diet Data Recorder System (DDRS), where an electronic device is used for objective measurement on dietary intake in real time and at moderate cost. The DDRS consists of (1) a mobile device that integrates a smartphone and an integrated laser package, (2) software on the smartphone for data collection and laser control, (3) an algorithm to process acquired data for food volume estimation, which is the largest source of error in calculating dietary intake, and (4) database and interface for data storage and management. The estimated food volume, together with direct entries of food questionnaires and voice recordings, could provide dietitians and nutritional epidemiologists with more complete food description and more accurate food portion sizes. In this paper, we will describe the system design of DDRS and initial results of dietary assessment.

  11. Integration of quantitative risk assessment in the health impact assessment of the recently amended Hungarian anti-smoking policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Gulis, Gabriel

    2011-01-01

    Health impact assessments (HIA) dominantly apply only qualitative evaluation, although a comprehensive HIA ideally integrates both qualitative and quantitative evidence and methods, since quantification has several advantages when using assessment results in the decision making process......-smokers to introduce smoking ban in closed public places, workplaces and public transport vehicles. Full chain approach was used to identify basic rules for prioritizing the major impact pathways with special attention to the feasibility of quantifying exposure and outcome. Exposure assessment relied on international...... experiences, while outcome assessment calculated measures of disease burden, like attributable death and disability adjusted life years, for a baseline and a predicted situation after the proposed changes take place. The major impact of the proposal was identified to decreases prevalence of active and passive...

  12. Effects of ambient temperature changes on integral bridges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-09-01

    Integral bridges (IBs) are jointless bridges whereby the deck is continuous and monolithic with abutment walls. IBs are outperforming their non-integral counterparts in economy and safety. Their principal advantages are derived from the absence of ex...

  13. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change provides data and information on global and regional land cover change in raster format for...

  14. The regional impacts of climate change: an assessment of vulnerability

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zinyowera, Marufu C; Moss, Richard H; Watson, R. T

    1998-01-01

    .... The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health...

  15. Integrating life-cycle environmental and economic assessment with transportation and land use planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chester, Mikhail V; Nahlik, Matthew J; Fraser, Andrew M; Kimball, Mindy A; Garikapati, Venu M

    2013-01-01

    The environmental outcomes of urban form changes should couple life-cycle and behavioral assessment methods to better understand urban sustainability policy outcomes. Using Phoenix, Arizona light rail as a case study, an integrated transportation and land use life-cycle assessment (ITLU-LCA) framework is developed to assess the changes to energy consumption and air emissions from transit-oriented neighborhood designs. Residential travel, commercial travel, and building energy use are included and the framework integrates household behavior change assessment to explore the environmental and economic outcomes of policies that affect infrastructure. The results show that upfront environmental and economic investments are needed (through more energy-intense building materials for high-density structures) to produce long run benefits in reduced building energy use and automobile travel. The annualized life-cycle benefits of transit-oriented developments in Phoenix can range from 1.7 to 230 Gg CO2e depending on the aggressiveness of residential density. Midpoint impact stressors for respiratory effects and photochemical smog formation are also assessed and can be reduced by 1.2-170 Mg PM10e and 41-5200 Mg O3e annually. These benefits will come at an additional construction cost of up to $410 million resulting in a cost of avoided CO2e at $16-29 and household cost savings.

  16. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Szabo Alina

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

  17. Annual Summary of the Integrated Disposal Facility Performance Assessment 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khaleel, R. [INTERA, Austin, TX (United States); Nichols, W. E. [CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company, Richland, WA (United States)

    2012-12-27

    An annual summary of the adequacy of the Hanford Immobilized Low-Activity Waste (ILAW) Performance Assessment (PA) is required each year (DOE O 435.1 Chg 1,1 DOE M 435.1-1 Chg 1;2 and DOE/ORP-2000-013). The most recently approved PA is DOE/ORP-2000-24.4 The ILAW PA evaluated the adequacy of the ILAW disposal facility, now referred to as the Integrated Disposal Facility (IDF), for the safe disposal of vitrified Hanford Site tank waste.

  18. Objective Integrated Assessment of Functional Outcomes in Reduction Mammaplasty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Passaro, Ilaria; Malovini, Alberto; Faga, Angela; Toffola, Elena Dalla

    2013-01-01

    Background: The aim of our study was an objective integrated assessment of the functional outcomes of reduction mammaplasty. Methods: The study involved 17 women undergoing reduction mammaplasty from March 2009 to June 2011. Each patient was assessed before surgery and 2 months postoperatively with the original association of 4 subjective and objective assessment methods: a physiatric clinical examination, the Roland Morris Disability Questionnaire, the Berg Balance Scale, and a static force platform analysis. Results: All of the tests proved multiple statistically significant associated outcomes demonstrating a significant improvement in the functional status following reduction mammaplasty. Surgical correction of breast hypertrophy could achieve both spinal pain relief and recovery of performance status in everyday life tasks, owing to a muscular postural functional rearrangement with a consistent antigravity muscle activity sparing. Pain reduction in turn could reduce the antalgic stiffness and improved the spinal range of motion. In our sample, the improvement of the spinal range of motion in flexion matched a similar improvement in extension. Recovery of a more favorable postural pattern with reduction of the anterior imbalance was demonstrated by the static force stabilometry. Therefore, postoperatively, all of our patients narrowed the gap between the actual body barycenter and the ideal one. The static force platform assessment also consistently confirmed the effectiveness of an accurate clinical examination of functional impairment from breast hypertrophy. Conclusions: The static force platform assessment might help the clinician to support the diagnosis of functional impairment from a breast hypertrophy with objectively based data. PMID:25289256

  19. Chapter 4: Overview of the vegetation management treatment economic analysis module in the integrated landscape assessment project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiaoping Zhou; Miles A. Hemstrom

    2014-01-01

    Forest land provides various ecosystem services, including timber, biomass, and carbon sequestration. Estimating trends in these ecosystem services is essential for assessing potential outcomes of landscape management scenarios. However, the state-and transition models used in the Integrated Landscape Assessment Project for simulating landscape changes over time do not...

  20. Assessment of changes at Glen Canyon Dam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cherry, D.; McCoy, J.; Crandall, S.

    1991-01-01

    This paper describes the complexity associated with the assessment of financial impacts of proposed and actual short-term restrictions at Glen Canyon Dam. The reasons for these restrictions are discussed as well as the methods used to measure their financial impact to Western Area Power Administration

  1. Leading Formative Assessment Change: A 3-Phase Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Northwest Evaluation Association, 2016

    2016-01-01

    If you are seeking greater student engagement and growth, you need to integrate high-impact formative assessment practices into daily instruction. Read the final article in our five-part series to find advice aimed at leaders determined to bring classroom formative assessment practices district wide. Learn: (1) what you MUST consider when…

  2. Beyond Needs Assessments: Marketing as Change Agent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piland, William E.

    1984-01-01

    Views marketing techniques as agents of change providing valuable assistance to community college decision makers. Discusses the importance of a balance among the four P's of marketing (i.e., promotion, price, place, and product); and seven procedural steps in developing a sound marketing strategy. (DMM)

  3. An integrated method for assessing climate-related risks and adaptation alternatives in urban areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yvonne Andersson-Sköld

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The urban environment is a complex structure with interlinked social, ecological and technical structures. Global warming is expected to have a broad variety of impacts, which will add to the complexity. Climate changes will force adaptation, to reduce climate-related risks. Adaptation measures can address one aspect at the time, or aim for a holistic approach to avoid maladaptation. This paper presents a systematic, integrated approach for assessing alternatives for reducing the risks of heat waves, flooding and air pollution in urban settings, with the aim of reducing the risk of maladaptation. The study includes strategies covering different spatial scales, and both the current climate situation and the climate predicted under climate change scenarios. The adaptation strategies investigated included increasing vegetation; selecting density, height and colour of buildings; and retreat or resist (defend against sea-level rise. Their effectiveness was assessed with regard to not only flooding, heat stress and air quality but also with regard to resource use, emissions to air (incl. GHG, soil and water, and people’s perceptions and vulnerability. The effectiveness of the strategies were ranked on a common scale (from −3 to 3 in an integrated assessment. Integrated assessments are recommended, as they help identify the most sustainable solutions, but to reduce the risk of maladaptation they require experts from a variety of disciplines. The most generally applicable recommendation, derived from the integrated assessment here, taking into account both expertise from different municipal departments, literature surveys, life cycle assessments and publics perceptions, is to increase the urban greenery, as it contributes to several positive aspects such as heat stress mitigation, air quality improvement, effective storm-water and flood-risk management, and it has several positive social impacts. The most favourable alternative was compact, mid

  4. The role of risk assessment and safety analysis in integrated safety assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niall, R.; Hunt, M.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-01-01

    To ensure that the design and operation of both nuclear and non- nuclear hazardous facilities is acceptable, and meets all societal safety expectations, a rigorous deterministic and probabilistic assessment is necessary. An approach is introduced, founded on the concept of an ''Integrated Safety Assessment.'' It merges the commonly performed safety and risk analyses and uses them in concert to provide decision makers with the necessary depth of understanding to achieve ''adequacy.'' 3 refs., 1 fig

  5. Information resources assessment of a healthcare integrated delivery system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadd, C. S.; Friedman, C. P.; Douglas, G.; Miller, D. J.

    1999-01-01

    While clinical healthcare systems may have lagged behind computer applications in other fields in the shift from mainframes to client-server architectures, the rapid deployment of newer applications is closing that gap. Organizations considering the transition to client-server must identify and position themselves to provide the resources necessary to implement and support the infrastructure requirements of client-server architectures and to manage the accelerated complexity at the desktop, including hardware and software deployment, training, and maintenance needs. This paper describes an information resources assessment of the recently aligned Pennsylvania regional Veterans Administration Stars and Stripes Health Network (VISN4), in anticipation of the shift from a predominantly mainframe to a client-server information systems architecture in its well-established VistA clinical information system. The multimethod assessment study is described here to demonstrate this approach and its value to regional healthcare networks undergoing organizational integration and/or significant information technology transformations. PMID:10566414

  6. An Integrated Method of Supply Chains Vulnerability Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiaguo Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Supply chain vulnerability identification and evaluation are extremely important to mitigate the supply chain risk. We present an integrated method to assess the supply chain vulnerability. The potential failure mode of the supply chain vulnerability is analyzed through the SCOR model. Combining the fuzzy theory and the gray theory, the correlation degree of each vulnerability indicator can be calculated and the target improvements can be carried out. In order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, we use Kendall’s tau coefficient to measure the effect of different methods. The result shows that the presented method has the highest consistency in the assessment compared with the other two methods.

  7. Natriuretic peptides and integrated risk assessment for cardiovascular disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeit, Peter; Kaptoge, S; Welsh, P.

    2016-01-01

    samples and collection of data from studies identified through a systematic search of the literature (PubMed, Scientific Citation Index Expanded, and Embase) for articles published up to Sept 4, 2014, using search terms related to natriuretic peptide family members and the primary outcomes......BACKGROUND: Guidelines for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases focus on prediction of coronary heart disease and stroke. We assessed whether or not measurement of N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentration could enable a more integrated approach than at present...... by predicting heart failure and enhancing coronary heart disease and stroke risk assessment. METHODS: In this individual-participant-data meta-analysis, we generated and harmonised individual-participant data from relevant prospective studies via both de-novo NT-proBNP concentration measurement of stored...

  8. Information resources assessment of a healthcare integrated delivery system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadd, C S; Friedman, C P; Douglas, G; Miller, D J

    1999-01-01

    While clinical healthcare systems may have lagged behind computer applications in other fields in the shift from mainframes to client-server architectures, the rapid deployment of newer applications is closing that gap. Organizations considering the transition to client-server must identify and position themselves to provide the resources necessary to implement and support the infrastructure requirements of client-server architectures and to manage the accelerated complexity at the desktop, including hardware and software deployment, training, and maintenance needs. This paper describes an information resources assessment of the recently aligned Pennsylvania regional Veterans Administration Stars and Stripes Health Network (VISN4), in anticipation of the shift from a predominantly mainframe to a client-server information systems architecture in its well-established VistA clinical information system. The multimethod assessment study is described here to demonstrate this approach and its value to regional healthcare networks undergoing organizational integration and/or significant information technology transformations.

  9. Russian practice of RPV integrity assessment under PTS conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piminov, V.; Dragunov, Yu.; Kostyrkin, S.; Akbachev, I.

    1997-01-01

    In this paper the approach used by Gidopress (main designer of Russian WWER reactors) for RPV integrity assessment is presented. Recently performed calculations for RPVs of Novoronezh NPP, units 3 and 4, are used as an example of practical application of this approach. The calculations have been performed on the base of Russian regulatory requirements, at the same time the recommendations of IAEA Guidelines for PTS assessment was also taken into account. The scope of the work includes: Analysis of real state of NPP systems and PTS selection; analysis of material behavior including results of templets investigation; thermal hydraulic calculations; structural analyses for the leading transients; development of supplementary measures to reduce the risk of RPV fracture. 5 refs, 9 figs, 1 tab

  10. Russian practice of RPV integrity assessment under PTS conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piminov, V; Dragunov, Yu; Kostyrkin, S; Akbachev, I

    1997-09-01

    In this paper the approach used by Gidopress (main designer of Russian WWER reactors) for RPV integrity assessment is presented. Recently performed calculations for RPVs of Novoronezh NPP, units 3 and 4, are used as an example of practical application of this approach. The calculations have been performed on the base of Russian regulatory requirements, at the same time the recommendations of IAEA Guidelines for PTS assessment was also taken into account. The scope of the work includes: Analysis of real state of NPP systems and PTS selection; analysis of material behavior including results of templets investigation; thermal hydraulic calculations; structural analyses for the leading transients; development of supplementary measures to reduce the risk of RPV fracture. 5 refs, 9 figs, 1 tab.

  11. Integrated resource assessment of the Drina River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almulla, Youssef; Ramos, Eunice; Gardumi, Francesco; Howells, Mark

    2017-04-01

    The integrated assessment and management of resources: water, energy, food and environment is of fundamental importance, yet it is a very challenging task especially when it is carried out on the transboundary level. This study focuses on the Drina River Basin (DRB) which is a transboundary basin in South East Europe spreading across Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro with a total surface area of 19,982 km2. Water resources from the Drina River Basin are shared among many activities in the basin: domestic water supply, electricity generation, fishery, tourism and, to a lesser extent, irrigation, industry and mining. The region has recently experienced repeated events of floods and droughts causing significant damage to the economy, showing a high vulnerability of the area to the effects of climate change. The assessment of the Drina River Basin is carried out in the framework of the project "Water food energy ecosystems nexus in transboundary river basins" under the UNECE Water Convention. This study aims to: 1) Improve the cooperation in the operation of dams and hydropower plants in the DRB for optimized production; 2) Explore the opportunities generated by electricity trade between the DRB countries as a mechanism to enhance cooperation and as an enabler for the synchronised operation of hydropower plants; 3) Motivate the implementation of energy efficiency measures to reduce the electricity production requirement from hydro and thermal power. In order to achieve that, a multi-country electricity system model was developed for the three countries of Drina river basin using the Open Source energy MOdelling SYStem (OSeMOSYS). The model represents the whole electricity system of each country, with special cascade representation of hydropower plants along Drina river and its tributaries. The results show that, in a scenario of synchronised operation of all power plants along Drina and its tributaries, those downstream can significantly increase their

  12. Integrated assessment of the global warming problem. A decision-analytical approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Lenthe, J.; Hendrickx, L.; Vlek, C.A.J.

    1995-01-01

    The project on the title subject aims at developing a policy-oriented methodology for the integrated assessment of the global warming problem. Decision analysis in general and influence diagrams in particular appear to constitute an appropriate integrated assessment methodology. The influence-diagram approach is illustrated at a preliminary integrated modeling of the global warming problem. In next stages of the research, attention will be shifted from the methodology of integrated assessment to the contents of integrated models. 4 figs., 5 refs

  13. Integration, Identity and Participation in a Changing Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius Tătar

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes the prospects of building European identity in the changing environment of the EU enlargements. Drawing on data from Eurobarometer surveys, the study specifically looks at citizens’ perceptions and images of EU and their availability to participate in European affairs. The article points out different views about the meanings and expectations regarding the EU project. Although both national and international contexts play a significant role in fostering specific representations of EU, there is no clear-cut divide between the citizens of “old” and “new” Member States (MS. Instead, one can notice a more complex picture in terms of identification with the EU. In general, people from different MS tend to feel on average more attachment to their country (and sometimes to their own village/town/city than to the EU. Moreover, individuals from “old” MS do not necessarily have higher levels of attachment to the symbols of EU than those living in “new” MS. In addition, the level of effective knowledge on how EU actually works remains at relatively low rates throughout Europe, regardless of a country’s date of accession to the EU. Consequently, the socialization effects of the European integration process seem to remain weak in terms of fostering the emergence of European identity.

  14. Assessment of Climate Change Effects on Shahcheraghi Reservoir Inflow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. E. Banihabib

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Forecasting the inflow to the reservoir is important issues due to the limited water resources and the importance of optimal utilization of reservoirs to meet the need for drinking, industry and agriculture in future time periods. In the meantime, ignoring the effects of climate change on meteorological and hydrological parameters and water resources in long-term planning of water resources cause inaccuracy. It is essential to assess the impact of climate change on reservoir operation in arid regions. In this research, climate change impact on hydrological and meteorological variables of the Shahcheragh dam basin, in Semnan Province, was studied using an integrated model of climate change assessment. Materials and Methods: The case study area of this study was located in Damghan Township, Semnan Province, Iran. It is an arid zone. The case study area is a part of the Iran Central Desert. The basin is in 12 km north of the Damghan City and between 53° E to 54° 30’ E longitude and 36° N to 36° 30’ N latitude. The area of the basin is 1,373 km2 with average annual inflow around 17.9 MCM. Total actual evaporation and average annual rainfall are 1,986 mm and 137 mm, respectively. This case study is chosen to test proposed framework for assessment of climate change impact hydrological and meteorological variables of the basin. In the proposed model, LARS-WG and ANN sub-models (7 sub models with a combination of different inputs such as temperature, precipitation and also solar radiation were used for downscaling daily outputs of CGCM3 model under 3 emission scenarios, A2, B1 and A1B and reservoir inflow simulation, respectively. LARS-WG was tested in 99% confidence level before using it as downscaling model and feed-forward neural network was used as raifall-runoff model. Moreover, the base period data (BPD, 1990-2008, were used for calibration. Finally, reservoir inflow was simulated for future period data (FPD of 2015-2044 and

  15. Strategy for integrated CERCLA/NEPA risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacDonell, M.M.; Haroun, L.A.; Peterson, J.M.; Blunt, D.A.; Fingleton, D.J.; Picel, M.H.

    1991-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has established a policy whereby, for remedial actions, the procedural and documentational requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) are integrated with those of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), as amended. However, the objectives of risk assessment under NEPA and CERCLA differ somewhat. Until its recent application at contaminated sites, NEPA analysis has typically been applied to impacts from taking actions at clean sites (e.g., for construction activities), and a somewhat loosely structured process has historically been used to estimate relative risks for NEPA analyses. Decisions such as cleanup levels were not made on the basis of the risk estimates, and they therefore tended to be conservative and were not discussed in detail. In contrast, risks estimated for Superfund (CERCLA) sites are used to focus the decision-making process for those sites and support national prioritization for cleanup, and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed a detailed framework for preparing baseline health risk assessments for these sites. The purpose of this paper is to discuss issues related to intergrating the CERCLA and NEPA approaches into the risk assessments that have been prepared for a DOE remedial action project at the Weldon Spring site near St. Charles, Missouri. These issues are grouped into three basic categories: general assumptions for the impact evaluation, data management, and presentation of the methodology and results. This paper is not intended to represent DOE policy and guidance, nor does it represent the only approach that can be used for integrated risk assessments. It merely discusses the process that was used for the Weldon Spring project, articulating the issues that were encountered and how they were addressed

  16. Life cycle integrated thermoeconomic assessment method for energy conversion systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanbur, Baris Burak; Xiang, Liming; Dubey, Swapnil; Choo, Fook Hoong; Duan, Fei

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A new LCA integrated thermoeconomic approach is presented. • The new unit fuel cost is found 4.8 times higher than the classic method. • The new defined parameter increased the sustainability index by 67.1%. • The case studies are performed for countries with different CO 2 prices. - Abstract: Life cycle assessment (LCA) based thermoeconomic modelling has been applied for the evaluation of energy conversion systems since it provided more comprehensive and applicable assessment criteria. This study proposes an improved thermoeconomic method, named as life cycle integrated thermoeconomic assessment (LCiTA), which combines the LCA based enviroeconomic parameters in the production steps of the system components and fuel with the conventional thermoeconomic method for the energy conversion systems. A micro-cogeneration system is investigated and analyzed with the LCiTA method, the comparative studies show that the unit cost of fuel by using the LCiTA method is 3.8 times higher than the conventional thermoeconomic model. It is also realized that the enviroeconomic parameters during the operation of the system components do not have significant impacts on the system streams since the exergetic parameters are dominant in the thermoeconomic calculations. Moreover, the improved sustainability index is found roundly 67.2% higher than the previously defined sustainability index, suggesting that the enviroeconomic and thermoeconomic parameters decrease the impact of the exergy destruction in the sustainability index definition. To find the feasible operation conditions for the micro-cogeneration system, different assessment strategies are presented. Furthermore, a case study for Singapore is conducted to see the impact of the forecasted carbon dioxide prices on the thermoeconomic performance of the micro-cogeneration system.

  17. Developing a flexible and verifiable integrated dose assessment capability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parzyck, D.C.; Rhea, T.A.; Copenhaver, E.D.; Bogard, J.S.

    1987-01-01

    A flexible yet verifiable system of computing and recording personnel doses is needed. Recent directions in statutes establish the trend of combining internal and external doses. We are developing a Health Physics Information Management System (HPIMS) that will centralize dosimetry calculations and data storage; integrate health physics records with other health-related disciplines, such as industrial hygiene, medicine, and safety; provide a more auditable system with published algorithms and clearly defined flowcharts of system operation; readily facilitate future changes dictated by new regulations, new dosimetric models, and new systems of units; and address ad-hoc inquiries regarding worker/workplace interactions, including potential synergisms with non-radiation exposures. The system is modular and provides a high degree of isolation from low-level detail, allowing flexibility for changes without adversely affecting other parts of the system. 10 refs., 3 figs

  18. A changing climate: impacts on human exposures to O3 using an integrated modeling methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Predicting the impacts of changing climate on human exposure to air pollution requires future scenarios that account for changes in ambient pollutant concentrations, population sizes and distributions, and housing stocks. An integrated methodology to model changes in human exposu...

  19. Review of Multi-Criteria Decision Aid for Integrated Sustainability Assessment of Urban Water Systems - MCEARD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Integrated sustainability assessment is part of a new paradigm for urban water decision making. Multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) is an integrative framework used in urban water sustainability assessment, which has a particular focus on utilising stakeholder participation. Here ...

  20. Changing the Way We Assess Leadership

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    article is twofold. The first is to present a theory of leader- ship for the circumstances described above. The second is to provide manag - ers with a...between management and leadership . While both management and leadership are necessary, the change and complexity associated with the future demands that...the leadership role takes precedence over the management role. This concept of managerial leadership in an environment full of surprising, novel, messy

  1. USE OF SOFTWARES FOR POSTURE ASSESSMENT: INTEGRATIVE REVIEW

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edyla Maria Porto de Freitas Camelo

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available To carry out an integrative literature review on the postural analysis softwares available today. It is an integrative-narrative review of qualitative and methodological nature performed during April-July 2014. As inclusion criteria, the articles should be bibliographical or original research and available with full access. At first, we proceeded to the identification of the keywords for the softwares related to postural assessment commonly used in the health field, in such case "posture", "software", and "postural assessment". The search was narrowed by publication date from 2002 to 2014. Through the information acquired from the articles and from the software developers, information on 12 programs that assist the postural evaluation were obtained - Alcimage, All Body Scan 3D, Aplob, APPID, Biotonix, Corporis Pro, Fisimetrix, Fisiometer Posturograma, Physical Fisio, Physio Easy, Posture Print and SAPO. However, only one tool has more information and studies, namely SAPO. There are many postural analysis softwares available on the internet today, however, these are quite disparate in relation to possible answers and are still poorly widespread as research tools.

  2. French nuclear plants PWR vessel integrity assessment and life management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bezdikian, G. [Electricite de France (EDF), Div. Production Nucleaire, 93 - Saint-Denis (France); Quinot, P. [FRAMATOME, Dept. Bloc Reacteur et Boucles Primaires, 92 - Paris-La-Defence (France); Faidy, C.; Churier-Bossennec, H. [Electricite de France (EDF), Div. Ingenierie et Service, 69 - Villeurbanne (France)

    2001-07-01

    The Reactor Pressure Vessel life management of 56 PWR 3 loop and 4 loop reactors units was engaged by the French Utility EDF (Electricite de France) a few years ago and is yet on going on. This paper will present the work carried out within the framework of justifying why the 34 three loop reactor vessels will remain acceptable for operation for a lifetime of at least 40-years. A summary of the measures will be given. An overall review of actions will be presented describing the French approach, using important existing databases, including studies related to irradiation surveillance monitoring program and end of life fluence assessment. The last results obtained are based on generic integrity analyses for all categories of situations (normal upset emergency and faulted conditions) until the end of lifetime, postulating circumferential an radial kinds of flaw located in the stainless steel cladding or shallow sub-cladding area. The results of structural integrity analyses beginning with elastic computations and completed with three-dimensional finite element elastic plastic computations for envelope cases, are compared with code criteria for operating plants. The objective is to evaluate the margins on different parameters as RTNDT (Reference Nil Ductility Transition Temperature), toughness or crack size, to justify the global fitness for service of all these Reactor Pressure Vessels. The paper introduces EDF's maintenance strategy, related to integrity assessment, for those nuclear power plants under operation, based on NDE in-service inspection of the first thirty millimeters in the thickness of the wall and major surveillance programs of the vessels. (author)

  3. French nuclear plants PWR vessel integrity assessment and life management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bezdikian, G.; Quinot, P.; Faidy, C.; Churier-Bossennec, H.

    2001-01-01

    The Reactor Pressure Vessel life management of 56 PWR 3 loop and 4 loop reactors units was engaged by the French Utility EDF (Electricite de France) a few years ago and is yet on going on. This paper will present the work carried out within the framework of justifying why the 34 three loop reactor vessels will remain acceptable for operation for a lifetime of at least 40-years. A summary of the measures will be given. An overall review of actions will be presented describing the French approach, using important existing databases, including studies related to irradiation surveillance monitoring program and end of life fluence assessment. The last results obtained are based on generic integrity analyses for all categories of situations (normal upset emergency and faulted conditions) until the end of lifetime, postulating circumferential an radial kinds of flaw located in the stainless steel cladding or shallow sub-cladding area. The results of structural integrity analyses beginning with elastic computations and completed with three-dimensional finite element elastic plastic computations for envelope cases, are compared with code criteria for operating plants. The objective is to evaluate the margins on different parameters as RTNDT (Reference Nil Ductility Transition Temperature), toughness or crack size, to justify the global fitness for service of all these Reactor Pressure Vessels. The paper introduces EDF's maintenance strategy, related to integrity assessment, for those nuclear power plants under operation, based on NDE in-service inspection of the first thirty millimeters in the thickness of the wall and major surveillance programs of the vessels. (author)

  4. An Integrative Review of Pediatric Fall Risk Assessment Tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiGerolamo, Kimberly; Davis, Katherine Finn

    Patient fall prevention begins with accurate risk assessment. However, sustained improvements in prevention and quality of care include use of validated fall risk assessment tools (FRATs). The goal of FRATs is to identify patients at highest risk. Adult FRATs are often borrowed from to create tools for pediatric patients. Though factors associated with pediatric falls in the hospital setting are similar to those in adults, such as mobility, medication use, and cognitive impairment, adult FRATs and the factors associated with them do not adequately assess risk in children. Articles were limited to English language, ages 0-21years, and publish date 2006-2015. The search yielded 22 articles. Ten were excluded as the population was primarily adult or lacked discussion of a FRAT. Critical appraisal and findings were synthesized using the Johns Hopkins Nursing evidence appraisal system. Twelve articles relevant to fall prevention in the pediatric hospital setting that discussed fall risk assessment and use of a FRAT were reviewed. Comparison between and accuracy of FRATs is challenged when different classifications, definitions, risk stratification, and inclusion criteria are used. Though there are several pediatric FRATs published in the literature, none have been found to be reliable and valid across institutions and diverse populations. This integrative review highlights the importance of choosing a FRAT based on an institution's identified risk factors and validating the tool for one's own patient population as well as using the tool in conjunction with nursing clinical judgment to guide interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Methods for assessing NPP containment pressure boundary integrity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naus, D.J.; Ellingwood, B.R.; Graves, H.L.

    2004-01-01

    Research is being conducted to address aging of the containment pressure boundary in light-water reactor plants. Objectives of this research are to (1) understand the significant factors relating to corrosion occurrence, efficacy of inspection, and structural capacity reduction of steel containments and of liners of concrete containments; (2) provide the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) reviewers a means of establishing current structural capacity margins or estimating future residual structural capacity margins for steel containments and concrete containments as limited by liner integrity; and (3) provide recommendations, as appropriate, on information to be requested of licensees for guidance that could be utilized by USNRC reviewers in assessing the seriousness of reported incidences of containment degradation. Activities include development of a degradation assessment methodology; reviews of techniques and methods for inspection and repair of containment metallic pressure boundaries; evaluation of candidate techniques for inspection of inaccessible regions of containment metallic pressure boundaries; establishment of a methodology for reliability-based condition assessments of steel containments and liners; and fragility assessments of steel containments with localized corrosion

  6. A quantitative integrated assessment of pollution prevention achieved by integrated pollution prevention control licensing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Styles, David; O'Brien, Kieran; Jones, Michael B

    2009-11-01

    This paper presents an innovative, quantitative assessment of pollution avoidance attributable to environmental regulation enforced through integrated licensing, using Ireland's pharmaceutical-manufacturing sector as a case study. Emissions data reported by pharmaceutical installations were aggregated into a pollution trend using an Environmental Emissions Index (EEI) based on Lifecycle Assessment methodologies. Complete sectoral emissions data from 2001 to 2007 were extrapolated back to 1995, based on available data. Production volume data were used to derive a sectoral production index, and determine 'no-improvement' emission trends, whilst questionnaire responses from 20 industry representatives were used to quantify the contribution of integrated licensing to emission avoidance relative to these trends. Between 2001 and 2007, there was a 40% absolute reduction in direct pollution from 27 core installations, and 45% pollution avoidance relative to hypothetical 'no-improvement' pollution. It was estimated that environmental regulation avoided 20% of 'no-improvement' pollution, in addition to 25% avoidance under business-as-usual. For specific emissions, avoidance ranged from 14% and 30 kt a(-1) for CO(2) to 88% and 598 t a(-1) for SO(x). Between 1995 and 2007, there was a 59% absolute reduction in direct pollution, and 76% pollution avoidance. Pollution avoidance was dominated by reductions in emissions of VOCs, SO(x) and NO(x) to air, and emissions of heavy metals to water. Pollution avoidance of 35% was attributed to integrated licensing, ranging from between 8% and 2.9 t a(-1) for phosphorus emissions to water to 49% and 3143 t a(-1) for SO(x) emissions to air. Environmental regulation enforced through integrated licensing has been the major driver of substantial pollution avoidance achieved by Ireland's pharmaceutical sector - through emission limit values associated with Best Available Techniques, emissions monitoring and reporting requirements, and

  7. Metrics for Assessment of Smart Grid Data Integrity Attacks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Annarita Giani; Miles McQueen; Russell Bent; Kameshwar Poolla; Mark Hinrichs

    2012-07-01

    There is an emerging consensus that the nation’s electricity grid is vulnerable to cyber attacks. This vulnerability arises from the increasing reliance on using remote measurements, transmitting them over legacy data networks to system operators who make critical decisions based on available data. Data integrity attacks are a class of cyber attacks that involve a compromise of information that is processed by the grid operator. This information can include meter readings of injected power at remote generators, power flows on transmission lines, and relay states. These data integrity attacks have consequences only when the system operator responds to compromised data by redispatching generation under normal or contingency protocols. These consequences include (a) financial losses from sub-optimal economic dispatch to service loads, (b) robustness/resiliency losses from placing the grid at operating points that are at greater risk from contingencies, and (c) systemic losses resulting from cascading failures induced by poor operational choices. This paper is focused on understanding the connections between grid operational procedures and cyber attacks. We first offer two examples to illustrate how data integrity attacks can cause economic and physical damage by misleading operators into taking inappropriate decisions. We then focus on unobservable data integrity attacks involving power meter data. These are coordinated attacks where the compromised data are consistent with the physics of power flow, and are therefore passed by any bad data detection algorithm. We develop metrics to assess the economic impact of these attacks under re-dispatch decisions using optimal power flow methods. These metrics can be use to prioritize the adoption of appropriate countermeasures including PMU placement, encryption, hardware upgrades, and advance attack detection algorithms.

  8. Integrated safety assessment report, Haddam Neck Plant (Docket No. 50-213): Integrated Safety Assessment Program: Draft report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-07-01

    The integrated assessment is conducted on a plant-specific basis to evaluate all licensing actions, licensee initiated plant improvements and selected unresolved generic/safety issues to establish implementation schedules for each item. Procedures allow for a periodic updating of the schedules to account for licensing issues that arise in the future. The Haddam Neck Plant is one of two plants being reviewed under the pilot program. This report indicates how 82 topics selected for review were addressed, and presents the staff's recommendations regarding the corrective actions to resolve the 82 topics and other actions to enhance plant safety. 135 refs., 4 figs., 5 tabs

  9. Business Excellence Assessment - from an Integrated Reporting Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentin Burcă

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Economic globalization effects can easily be seen in various levels of decision process, affecting financial performance of each entity drastically. An essential variable on the decision process that is considered by managers, shareholders and stakeholders as well is the uncertainty of the economic environment that can be reduced through a flexible and up to date financial reporting model. In the light of the last evolutions of financial reporting model, standard-setters, researchers and practitioners as well, have realized the need for a change in the financial reporting regulation. Among listed entities, on which case financial transparency is essential on gaining investors trust, there has been drawn up a change in orientation concerning financial reporting model. As the focus falls now on value added potential, the new philosophy of integrated reporting has become of high interest for managers, shareholders and stakeholders as well. The paper is trying to describe this philosophy, from the perspective of business excellence models, widely spread globally nowadays. We will try to explain the integrated reporting utility on decision process by underlining the way this voluntary corporate reporting solution can give relevant information about value added potential of a reporting entity.

  10. An integrated model for assessing both crop productivity and agricultural water resources at a large scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okada, M.; Sakurai, G.; Iizumi, T.; Yokozawa, M.

    2012-12-01

    Agricultural production utilizes regional resources (e.g. river water and ground water) as well as local resources (e.g. temperature, rainfall, solar energy). Future climate changes and increasing demand due to population increases and economic developments would intensively affect the availability of water resources for agricultural production. While many studies assessed the impacts of climate change on agriculture, there are few studies that dynamically account for changes in water resources and crop production. This study proposes an integrated model for assessing both crop productivity and agricultural water resources at a large scale. Also, the irrigation management to subseasonal variability in weather and crop response varies for each region and each crop. To deal with such variations, we used the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique to quantify regional-specific parameters associated with crop growth and irrigation water estimations. We coupled a large-scale crop model (Sakurai et al. 2012), with a global water resources model, H08 (Hanasaki et al. 2008). The integrated model was consisting of five sub-models for the following processes: land surface, crop growth, river routing, reservoir operation, and anthropogenic water withdrawal. The land surface sub-model was based on a watershed hydrology model, SWAT (Neitsch et al. 2009). Surface and subsurface runoffs simulated by the land surface sub-model were input to the river routing sub-model of the H08 model. A part of regional water resources available for agriculture, simulated by the H08 model, was input as irrigation water to the land surface sub-model. The timing and amount of irrigation water was simulated at a daily step. The integrated model reproduced the observed streamflow in an individual watershed. Additionally, the model accurately reproduced the trends and interannual variations of crop yields. To demonstrate the usefulness of the integrated model, we compared two types of impact assessment of

  11. Integrated Safeguards and Security Management Self-Assessment 2004

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lunford, Dan; Ramsey, Dwayne

    2005-04-01

    In 2002 Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory deployed the first Integrated Safeguards and Security Management (ISSM) Self-Assessment process, designed to measure the effect of the Laboratory's ISSM efforts. This process was recognized by DOE as a best practice and model program for self-assessment and training. In 2004, the second Self-Assessment was launched. The cornerstone of this process was an employee survey that was designed to meet several objectives: (1) Ensure that Laboratory assets are protected. (2) Provide a measurement of the Laboratory's current security status that can be compared against the 2002 Self-Assessment baseline. (3) Educate all Laboratory staff about security responsibilities, tools, and practices. (4) Provide security staff with feedback on the effectiveness of security programs. (5) Provide line management with the information they need to make informed decisions about security. This 2004 Self Assessment process began in July 2004 with every employee receiving an information packet and instructions for completing the ISSM survey. The Laboratory-wide survey contained questions designed to measure awareness and conformance to policy and best practices. The survey response was excellent--90% of Berkeley Lab employees completed the questionnaire. ISSM liaisons from each division followed up on the initial survey results with individual employees to improve awareness and resolve ambiguities uncovered by the questionnaire. As with the 2002 survey, the Self-Assessment produced immediate positive results for the ISSM program and revealed opportunities for longer-term corrective actions. Results of the questionnaire provided information for organizational profiles and an institutional summary. The overall level of security protection and awareness was very high--often above 90%. Post-survey work by the ISSM liaisons and line management consistently led to improved awareness and metrics, as shown by a comparison of

  12. A relationship between regional and global GCM surface air temperature changes and its application to an integrated model of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jonas, M.; Ganopolski, A.V.; Krabec, J.; Olendrzyski, K.; Petoukhov, V.K.

    1994-01-01

    This study outlines the advantages of combining the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse affect (IMAGE, an integrated quick turnaround, global model of climate change) with a spatially detailed General Circulation Model (GCM), in this case developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI) in Hamburg. The outcome is a modified IMAGE model that simulates the MPI GCM projections of annual surface air temperature change globally and regionally. IMAGE thus provides policy analysts with integrated and regional information about global warming for a great range of policy-dependent greenhouse gas emission or concentration scenarios, while preserving its quick turnaround time. With the help of IMAGE various regional temperature response simulations have been produced. None of these simulations has yet been performed by any GCM. The simulations reflect the uncertainty range of a future warming. In this study the authors deal only with a simplified subsystem of such an integrated model of climate change, which begins with policy options, neglects the societal component in the greenhouse gas accounting tool, and ends with temperature change as the only output of the climate model. The model the authors employ is the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE, version 1.0), which was developed by the Netherlands National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM). IMAGE is a scientifically based, parameterized simulation policy model designed to calculate the historical and future effects of greenhouse gases on global surface and surface air temperatures and sea-level rise

  13. Integrating climate change into governance at the municipal scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wejs, Anja

    2014-01-01

    traditions and perceptions. This article examines dif- ferent approaches to CC governance and the institutional dynamics that occur in the integration process within eight Danish municipalities in the initial phase of integrating CC. The results show three different governance approaches related to climate...

  14. A novel integrated assessment methodology of urban water reuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Listowski, A; Ngo, H H; Guo, W S; Vigneswaran, S

    2011-01-01

    Wastewater is no longer considered a waste product and water reuse needs to play a stronger part in securing urban water supply. Although treatment technologies for water reclamation have significantly improved the question that deserves further analysis is, how selection of a particular wastewater treatment technology relates to performance and sustainability? The proposed assessment model integrates; (i) technology, characterised by selected quantity and quality performance parameters; (ii) productivity, efficiency and reliability criteria; (iii) quantitative performance indicators; (iv) development of evaluation model. The challenges related to hierarchy and selections of performance indicators have been resolved through the case study analysis. The goal of this study is to validate a new assessment methodology in relation to performance of the microfiltration (MF) technology, a key element of the treatment process. Specific performance data and measurements were obtained at specific Control and Data Acquisition Points (CP) to satisfy the input-output inventory in relation to water resources, products, material flows, energy requirements, chemicals use, etc. Performance assessment process contains analysis and necessary linking across important parametric functions leading to reliable outcomes and results.

  15. An integrative model of employee responses to major organisational change.

    OpenAIRE

    Kimberley, Nellie Anne

    2017-01-01

    One of the enduring issues facing organisations relates to the high number of change initiatives that fail outright or only partially meet expectations (Beer & Nohria, 2000). Although there are many potential causes of failed change, much of the extant change identifies resistance to change as the major source of this problem. In order to bring about successful organisational change, it is important that managers create a change-ready environment, one where employees accept and affectively co...

  16. The treatment of climate science in Integrated Assessment Modelling: integration of climate step function response in an energy system integrated assessment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dessens, Olivier

    2016-04-01

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are used as crucial inputs to policy-making on climate change. These models simulate aspect of the economy and climate system to deliver future projections and to explore the impact of mitigation and adaptation policies. The IAMs' climate representation is extremely important as it can have great influence on future political action. The step-function-response is a simple climate model recently developed by the UK Met Office and is an alternate method of estimating the climate response to an emission trajectory directly from global climate model step simulations. Good et al., (2013) have formulated a method of reconstructing general circulation models (GCMs) climate response to emission trajectories through an idealized experiment. This method is called the "step-response approach" after and is based on an idealized abrupt CO2 step experiment results. TIAM-UCL is a technology-rich model that belongs to the family of, partial-equilibrium, bottom-up models, developed at University College London to represent a wide spectrum of energy systems in 16 regions of the globe (Anandarajah et al. 2011). The model uses optimisation functions to obtain cost-efficient solutions, in meeting an exogenously defined set of energy-service demands, given certain technological and environmental constraints. Furthermore, it employs linear programming techniques making the step function representation of the climate change response adapted to the model mathematical formulation. For the first time, we have introduced the "step-response approach" method developed at the UK Met Office in an IAM, the TIAM-UCL energy system, and we investigate the main consequences of this modification on the results of the model in term of climate and energy system responses. The main advantage of this approach (apart from the low computational cost it entails) is that its results are directly traceable to the GCM involved and closely connected to well-known methods of

  17. Integrated deterministic and probabilistic safety assessment: Concepts, challenges, research directions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zio, Enrico

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • IDPSA contributes to robust risk-informed decision making in nuclear safety. • IDPSA considers time-dependent interactions among component failures and system process. • Also, IDPSA considers time-dependent interactions among control and operator actions. • Computational efficiency by advanced Monte Carlo and meta-modelling simulations. • Efficient post-processing of IDPSA output by clustering and data mining. - Abstract: Integrated deterministic and probabilistic safety assessment (IDPSA) is conceived as a way to analyze the evolution of accident scenarios in complex dynamic systems, like nuclear, aerospace and process ones, accounting for the mutual interactions between the failure and recovery of system components, the evolving physical processes, the control and operator actions, the software and firmware. In spite of the potential offered by IDPSA, several challenges need to be effectively addressed for its development and practical deployment. In this paper, we give an overview of these and discuss the related implications in terms of research perspectives

  18. Integrated testing strategy (ITS) for bioaccumulation assessment under REACH

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lombardo, Anna; Roncaglioni, Alessandra; Benfentati, Emilio

    2014-01-01

    in a dossier. REACH promotes the use of alternative methods to replace, refine and reduce the use of animal (eco)toxicity testing. Within the EU OSIRIS project, integrated testing strategies (ITSs) have been developed for the rational use of non-animal testing approaches in chemical hazard assessment. Here we......REACH (registration, evaluation, authorisation and restriction of chemicals) regulation requires that all the chemicals produced or imported in Europe above 1 tonne/year are registered. To register a chemical, physicochemical, toxicological and ecotoxicological information needs to be reported...... present an ITS for evaluating the bioaccumulation potential of organic chemicals. The scheme includes the use of all available data (also the non-optimal ones), waiving schemes, analysis of physicochemical properties related to the end point and alternative methods (both in silico and in vitro). In vivo...

  19. Integrating a quantitative risk appraisal in a health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adám, Balázs; Molnár, Agnes; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Although the quantification of health outcomes in a health impact assessment (HIA) is scarce in practice, it is preferred by policymakers, as it assists various aspects of the decision-making process. This article provides an example of integrating a quantitative risk appraisal...... in an HIA performed for the recently adopted Hungarian anti-smoking policy which introduced a smoking ban in closed public places, workplaces and public transport vehicles, and is one of the most effective measures to decrease smoking-related ill health. METHODS: A comprehensive, prospective HIA...... to decrease the prevalence of active and passive smoking and result in a considerably positive effect on several diseases, among which lung cancer, chronic pulmonary diseases, coronary heart diseases and stroke have the greatest importance. The health gain calculated for the quantifiable health outcomes...

  20. Integrated deterministic and probabilistic safety assessment: Concepts, challenges, research directions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zio, Enrico, E-mail: enrico.zio@ecp.fr [Ecole Centrale Paris and Supelec, Chair on System Science and the Energetic Challenge, European Foundation for New Energy – Electricite de France (EDF), Grande Voie des Vignes, 92295 Chatenay-Malabry Cedex (France); Dipartimento di Energia, Politecnico di Milano, Via Ponzio 34/3, 20133 Milano (Italy)

    2014-12-15

    Highlights: • IDPSA contributes to robust risk-informed decision making in nuclear safety. • IDPSA considers time-dependent interactions among component failures and system process. • Also, IDPSA considers time-dependent interactions among control and operator actions. • Computational efficiency by advanced Monte Carlo and meta-modelling simulations. • Efficient post-processing of IDPSA output by clustering and data mining. - Abstract: Integrated deterministic and probabilistic safety assessment (IDPSA) is conceived as a way to analyze the evolution of accident scenarios in complex dynamic systems, like nuclear, aerospace and process ones, accounting for the mutual interactions between the failure and recovery of system components, the evolving physical processes, the control and operator actions, the software and firmware. In spite of the potential offered by IDPSA, several challenges need to be effectively addressed for its development and practical deployment. In this paper, we give an overview of these and discuss the related implications in terms of research perspectives.

  1. Integrated assessment indicator for watercourses. Perspectives and possibilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voksoe, A.; Homstvedt, S.; Aalbu, Oe.; Valland, N.; Yndesdal, N.; Pettersen, S.; Eikenes, O.; Hoeifoedt, H.; Taugboel, G.

    1996-01-01

    This publication presents the result of a project aiming at developing a GIS (Geographical Information System) -based procedure to assess the integrated effect of various encroachments in and along watercourses. Four major catchments in Norway have been investigated. The GIS-method has been developed using existing data and data from detailed field registrations of encroachments in two catchments. Using existing data only, two other catchments have been analysed to test the validity of the proposed procedure. The various types of encroachments were assigned different weights and areal influences according to their estimated deteriorating effect on the natural situation. Applying the GIS-procedure the integrated effect is determined, giving a representative picture of the total situation. The results of the project are an interactive Windows-based application to operate the GIS-tool and produce maps as well as recommendations as to which categories of encroachments are to be considered. The method is proposed as a tool to obtain a consistent national management of preserved watersheds. 16 figs., 4 tabs

  2. Integration of Regional Mitigation Assessment and Conservation Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James H. Thorne

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Government agencies that develop infrastructure such as roads, waterworks, and energy delivery often impact natural ecosystems, but they also have unique opportunities to contribute to the conservation of regional natural resources through compensatory mitigation. Infrastructure development requires a planning, funding, and implementation cycle that can frequently take a decade or longer, but biological mitigation is often planned and implemented late in this process, in a project-by-project piecemeal manner. By adopting early regional mitigation needs assessment and planning for habitat-level impacts from multiple infrastructure projects, agencies could secure time needed to proactively integrate these obligations into regional conservation objectives. Such practice can be financially and ecologically beneficial due to economies of scale, and because earlier mitigation implementation means potentially developable critical parcels may still be available for conservation. Here, we compare the integration of regional conservation designs, termed greenprints, with early multi-project mitigation assessment for two areas in California, USA. The expected spatial extent of habitat impacts and associated mitigation requirements from multiple projects were identified for each area. We used the reserve-selection algorithm MARXAN to identify a regional greenprint for each site and to seek mitigation solutions through parcel acquisition that would contribute to the greenprint, as well as meet agency obligations. The two areas differed in the amount of input data available, the types of conservation objectives identified, and local land-management capacity. They are representative of the range of conditions that conservation practitioners may encounter, so contrasting the two illustrates how regional advanced mitigation can be generalized for use in a wide variety of settings. Environmental organizations can benefit from this approach because it provides a

  3. Integrated flash flood vulnerability assessment: Insights from East Attica, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Thaler, Thomas; Heiser, Micha; Hübl, Johannes; Fuchs, Sven

    2016-10-01

    In the framework of flood risk assessment, vulnerability is a key concept to assess the susceptibility of elements at risk. Besides the increasing amount of studies on flash floods available, in-depth information on vulnerability in Mediterranean countries was missing so far. Moreover, current approaches in vulnerability research are driven by a divide between social scientists who tend to view vulnerability as representing a set of socio-economic factors, and natural scientists who view vulnerability in terms of the degree of loss to an element at risk. Further, vulnerability studies in response to flash flood processes are rarely answered in the literature. In order to close this gap, this paper implemented an integrated vulnerability approach focusing on residential buildings exposed to flash floods in Greece. In general, both physical and social vulnerability was comparable low, which is interpreted as a result from (a) specific building regulations in Greece as well as general design principles leading to less structural susceptibility of elements at risk exposed, and (b) relatively low economic losses leading to less social vulnerability of citizens exposed. The population show high risk awareness and coping capacity to response to natural hazards event and in the same time the impact of the events are quite low, because of the already high use of local protection measures. The low vulnerability score for East Attica can be attributed especially to the low physical vulnerability and the moderate socio-economic well-being of the area. The consequence is to focus risk management strategies mainly in the reduction of the social vulnerability. By analysing both physical and social vulnerability an attempt was made to bridge the gap between scholars from sciences and humanities, and to integrate the results of the analysis into the broader vulnerability context.

  4. Assessing the environmental sustainability of ethanol from integrated biorefineries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falano, Temitope; Jeswani, Harish K; Azapagic, Adisa

    2014-06-01

    This paper considers the life cycle environmental sustainability of ethanol produced in integrated biorefineries together with chemicals and energy. Four types of second-generation feedstocks are considered: wheat straw, forest residue, poplar, and miscanthus. Seven out of 11 environmental impacts from ethanol are negative, including greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, when the system is credited for the co-products, indicating environmental savings. Ethanol from poplar is the best and straw the worst option for most impacts. Land use change from forest to miscanthus increases the GHG emissions several-fold. For poplar, the effect is opposite: converting grassland to forest reduces the emissions by three-fold. Compared to fossil and first-generation ethanol, ethanol from integrated biorefineries is more sustainable for most impacts, with the exception of wheat straw. Pure ethanol saves up to 87% of GHG emissions compared to petrol per MJ of fuel. However, for the current 5% ethanol-petrol blends, the savings are much smaller (biorefineries to the reduction of GHG emissions will be insignificant. Yet, higher ethanol blends would lead to an increase in some impacts, notably terrestrial and freshwater toxicity as well as eutrophication for some feedstocks. © 2014 The Authors. Biotechnology Journal published by Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

  5. Integrated manure utilization system life-cycle value assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Row, J.; Neabel, D. [Pembina Inst. for Appropriate Development, Drayton Valley, AB (Canada)

    2005-10-15

    A life-cycle assessment of the Alberta Research Council (ARC) and Highmark Renewables' development of an integrated manure utilization system (IMUS) were presented. The assessment focused on an evaluation of factors of primary importance to government, investors and the livestock industry. IMUS technology uses manure as a resource to produce electricity, heat, bio-based fertilizer and reusable water. Results of the assessment indicated that IMUS plants have the potential to be financially viable if a power purchase of $90 MWh on average can be purchased from a 30,000 head livestock operation. A capital cost of under $11 million is necessary, and an established biofertilizer price of $50 per tonne should be established. An IMUS plant was estimated to reduce life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions by 70 to 80 per cent when compared to land spreading. Reductions are accomplished through displacing electricity from the provincial grid and reducing nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O) emissions from spreading of manure The IMUS plants lessen environment impacts by reducing the extraction and consumption of non-renewable resources, and by displacing an estimated 11,700 GJ of coal and natural gas per 1000 head of cattle per year. In addition, various pathogens within manure are eliminated. The plants have the potential to eliminate the environmental hazards associated with the disposal of deadstock. The systems reduce manure odour, lessen truck traffic and are expected to contribute to rural economic diversification. Barriers to further implementation of IMUS were discussed, as well as emerging opportunities for IMUS developers. It was concluded that the initial assessments of the IMUS were positive. Further investigation is needed to determine actual life-cycle performance of the operations. 18 refs., 3 tabs., 3 figs.

  6. Comprehensive Assessment of Integration Activity of Business Structures in Russian Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariya Gennad’evna Karelina

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In the context of economic sanctions and growing international isolation, the research into regional differences in integration development acquires special relevance for Russia; this fact determines the need for a comprehensive assessment of integration activity of business structures in Russian regions. The diversity of approaches to the study of problems and prospects of economic integration and the current debate about the role of integration processes in the development of regional economies determined a comprehensive approach to the concepts of “integration” and “integration activity” in order to create objective prerequisites for analyzing integration activity of business structures in the regions of Russia. The information base of the research is the data of Russian information and analytical agencies. The tools used in the research include methods for analyzing structural changes, methods for analyzing economic differentiation and concentration, nonparametric statistics methods, and econometric analysis methods. The first part of the paper shows that socio-economic development in constituent entities of Russia is closely connected with the operation of integrated business structures located on their territory. Having studied the structure and dynamics of integration activity, we reveal the growing heterogeneity of integration activity of business structures in Russian regions. The hypothesis about significant divergence of mergers and acquisitions for corporate structures in Russian regions was confirmed by high values of the Gini coefficient, the Herfindahl index and the decile differentiation coefficient. The second part of the paper contains a comparative analysis and proposes an econometric approach to the measurement of integration activity of business structures in subjects of the Russian Federation on the basis of integral synthetic categories. The approach we propose focuses on the development of a system of indicators

  7. Integrated earth system dynamic modeling for life cycle impact assessment of ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbault, Damien; Rivière, Mylène; Rugani, Benedetto; Benetto, Enrico; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia

    2014-02-15

    Despite the increasing awareness of our dependence on Ecosystem Services (ES), Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) does not explicitly and fully assess the damages caused by human activities on ES generation. Recent improvements in LCIA focus on specific cause-effect chains, mainly related to land use changes, leading to Characterization Factors (CFs) at the midpoint assessment level. However, despite the complexity and temporal dynamics of ES, current LCIA approaches consider the environmental mechanisms underneath ES to be independent from each other and devoid of dynamic character, leading to constant CFs whose representativeness is debatable. This paper takes a step forward and is aimed at demonstrating the feasibility of using an integrated earth system dynamic modeling perspective to retrieve time- and scenario-dependent CFs that consider the complex interlinkages between natural processes delivering ES. The GUMBO (Global Unified Metamodel of the Biosphere) model is used to quantify changes in ES production in physical terms - leading to midpoint CFs - and changes in human welfare indicators, which are considered here as endpoint CFs. The interpretation of the obtained results highlights the key methodological challenges to be solved to consider this approach as a robust alternative to the mainstream rationale currently adopted in LCIA. Further research should focus on increasing the granularity of environmental interventions in the modeling tools to match current standards in LCA and on adapting the conceptual approach to a spatially-explicit integrated model. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Development and assessment of best estimate integrated safety analysis code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Bub Dong; Lee, Young Jin; Hwang, Moon Kyu (and others)

    2007-03-15

    Improvement of the integrated safety analysis code MARS3.0 has been carried out and a multi-D safety analysis application system has been established. Iterative matrix solver and parallel processing algorithm have been introduced, and a LINUX version has been generated to enable MARS to run in cluster PCs. MARS variables and sub-routines have been reformed and modularised to simplify code maintenance. Model uncertainty analyses have been performed for THTF, FLECHT, NEPTUN, and LOFT experiments as well as APR1400 plant. Participations in international cooperation research projects such as OECD BEMUSE, SETH, PKL, BFBT, and TMI-2 have been actively pursued as part of code assessment efforts. The assessment, evaluation and experimental data obtained through international cooperation projects have been registered and maintained in the T/H Databank. Multi-D analyses of APR1400 LBLOCA, DVI Break, SLB, and SGTR have been carried out as a part of application efforts in multi-D safety analysis. GUI based 3D input generator has been developed for user convenience. Operation of the MARS Users Group (MUG) was continued and through MUG, the technology has been transferred to 24 organisations. A set of 4 volumes of user manuals has been compiled and the correction reports for the code errors reported during MARS development have been published.

  9. Development and assessment of best estimate integrated safety analysis code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, Bub Dong; Lee, Young Jin; Hwang, Moon Kyu

    2007-03-01

    Improvement of the integrated safety analysis code MARS3.0 has been carried out and a multi-D safety analysis application system has been established. Iterative matrix solver and parallel processing algorithm have been introduced, and a LINUX version has been generated to enable MARS to run in cluster PCs. MARS variables and sub-routines have been reformed and modularised to simplify code maintenance. Model uncertainty analyses have been performed for THTF, FLECHT, NEPTUN, and LOFT experiments as well as APR1400 plant. Participations in international cooperation research projects such as OECD BEMUSE, SETH, PKL, BFBT, and TMI-2 have been actively pursued as part of code assessment efforts. The assessment, evaluation and experimental data obtained through international cooperation projects have been registered and maintained in the T/H Databank. Multi-D analyses of APR1400 LBLOCA, DVI Break, SLB, and SGTR have been carried out as a part of application efforts in multi-D safety analysis. GUI based 3D input generator has been developed for user convenience. Operation of the MARS Users Group (MUG) was continued and through MUG, the technology has been transferred to 24 organisations. A set of 4 volumes of user manuals has been compiled and the correction reports for the code errors reported during MARS development have been published

  10. Integrated risk assessment for spent fuel transportation using developed software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yun, Mi Rae; Christian, Robby; Kim, Bo Gyung; Almomani, Belal; Ham, Jae Hyun; Kang, Gook Hyun; Lee, Sang hoon

    2016-01-01

    As on-site spent fuel storage meets limitation of their capacity, spent fuel need to be transported to other place. In this research, risk of two ways of transportation method, maritime transportation and on-site transportation, and interim storage facility were analyzed. Easier and integrated risk assessment for spent fuel transportation will be possible by applying this software. Risk assessment for spent fuel transportation has not been researched and this work showed a case for analysis. By using this analysis method and developed software, regulators can get some insights for spent fuel transportation. For example, they can restrict specific region for preventing ocean accident and also they can arrange spend fuel in interim storage facility avoiding most risky region which have high risk from aircraft engine shaft. Finally, they can apply soft material on the floor for specific stage for on-site transportation. In this software, because we targeted Korea, we need to use Korean reference data. However, there were few Korean reference data. Especially, there was no food chain data for Korean ocean. In MARINRAD, they used steady state food chain model, but it is far from reality. Therefore, to get Korean realistic reference data, dynamic food chain model for Korean ocean need to be developed

  11. Architecture for Integrated Medical Model Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaworske, D. A.; Myers, J. G.; Goodenow, D.; Young, M.; Arellano, J. D.

    2016-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a modeling tool used to predict potential outcomes of a complex system based on a statistical understanding of many initiating events. Utilizing a Monte Carlo method, thousands of instances of the model are considered and outcomes are collected. PRA is considered static, utilizing probabilities alone to calculate outcomes. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (dPRA) is an advanced concept where modeling predicts the outcomes of a complex system based not only on the probabilities of many initiating events, but also on a progression of dependencies brought about by progressing down a time line. Events are placed in a single time line, adding each event to a queue, as managed by a planner. Progression down the time line is guided by rules, as managed by a scheduler. The recently developed Integrated Medical Model (IMM) summarizes astronaut health as governed by the probabilities of medical events and mitigation strategies. Managing the software architecture process provides a systematic means of creating, documenting, and communicating a software design early in the development process. The software architecture process begins with establishing requirements and the design is then derived from the requirements.

  12. Integrated risk assessment for spent fuel transportation using developed software

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yun, Mi Rae; Christian, Robby; Kim, Bo Gyung; Almomani, Belal; Ham, Jae Hyun; Kang, Gook Hyun [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Sang hoon [Keimyung University, Daegu (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    As on-site spent fuel storage meets limitation of their capacity, spent fuel need to be transported to other place. In this research, risk of two ways of transportation method, maritime transportation and on-site transportation, and interim storage facility were analyzed. Easier and integrated risk assessment for spent fuel transportation will be possible by applying this software. Risk assessment for spent fuel transportation has not been researched and this work showed a case for analysis. By using this analysis method and developed software, regulators can get some insights for spent fuel transportation. For example, they can restrict specific region for preventing ocean accident and also they can arrange spend fuel in interim storage facility avoiding most risky region which have high risk from aircraft engine shaft. Finally, they can apply soft material on the floor for specific stage for on-site transportation. In this software, because we targeted Korea, we need to use Korean reference data. However, there were few Korean reference data. Especially, there was no food chain data for Korean ocean. In MARINRAD, they used steady state food chain model, but it is far from reality. Therefore, to get Korean realistic reference data, dynamic food chain model for Korean ocean need to be developed.

  13. Integrated monitoring and information systems for managing aquatic invasive species in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Henry; Reusser, Deborah A.; Olden, Julian D.; Smith, Scott S.; Graham, Jim; Burkett, Virginia; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Piorkowski, Robert J.; Mcphedran, John

    2008-01-01

    Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic drivers and sea-level rise will affect populations of existing native and non-native aquatic species and the vulnerability of aquatic environments to new invasions. Monitoring surveys provide the foundation for assessing the combined effects of climate change and invasions by providing baseline biotic and environmental conditions, although the utility of a survey depends on whether the results are quantitative or qualitative, and other design considerations. The results from a variety of monitoring programs in the United States are available in integrated biological information systems, although many include only non-native species, not native species. Besides including natives, we suggest these systems could be improved through the development of standardized methods that capture habitat and physiological requirements and link regional and national biological databases into distributed Web portals that allow drawing information from multiple sources. Combining the outputs from these biological information systems with environmental data would allow the development of ecological-niche models that predict the potential distribution or abundance of native and non-native species on the basis of current environmental conditions. Environmental projections from climate models can be used in these niche models to project changes in species distributions or abundances under altered climatic conditions and to identify potential high-risk invaders. There are, however, a number of challenges, such as uncertainties associated with projections from climate and niche models and difficulty in integrating data with different temporal and spatial granularity. Even with these uncertainties, integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change

  14. Information and analytical support of integrated reporting: evaluation of the stakeholders’ influence on the change of the created value

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu. V. Novozhilova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Information and analytical support of integrated reporting needs constant improvement, depending on the growing needs of the stakeholders. The main objective of integrated reporting is to explain how the organization creates value over time. The stakeholders play a key role in the process of value creation. Firms accumulate stakeholders’ resources and transform them, thereby meeting the needs of the parties and achieving their own goals. Building relationships with their stakeholders, organization establishes impact leverage to create value. Thus, the created value depends on the successful interaction with stakeholders. Therefore, the article is devoted to problem of information and analytical support of integrated reporting to the evaluation of created value, which is influenced by the stakeholders. The article emphasizes that an integrated quantitative measurement of value change is a complex and unresolved currently task. Integrated evaluation - a systematic analytical study, in the course of which is given summarizing evaluation of the effectiveness company. Such assessment activity is important and has a multi-purpose orientation under market conditions. The annual reports of companies are practically no integrated indicators characterizing created value. The author believes that integrated reporting should become a platform for the realization of the possibility of an integrated assessment of the created value. The results of the study are the development the methods of computation the “integrated index overall impact by the stakeholders on the company’s created value” and its testing on the example of the annual reports of the organization, which discloses information on the level of international best practice. The methodology of the research bases on such methods as analysis, synthesis, abstraction, simulation, comprehensive approach to knowledge, logical methods of research. Private indicators for the computation the

  15. Sea Extremes: Integrated impact assessment in coastal climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorensen, Carlo; Knudsen, Per; Broge, Niels; Molgaard, Mads; Andersen, Ole

    2016-04-01

    We investigate effects of sea level rise and a change in precipitation pattern on coastal flooding hazards. Historic and present in situ and satellite data of water and groundwater levels, precipitation, vertical ground motion, geology, and geotechnical soil properties are combined with flood protection measures, topography, and infrastructure to provide a more complete picture of the water-related impact from climate change at an exposed coastal location. Results show that future sea extremes evaluated from extreme value statistics may, indeed, have a large impact. The integrated effects from future storm surges and other geo- and hydro-parameters need to be considered in order to provide for the best protection and mitigation efforts, however. Based on the results we present and discuss a simple conceptual model setup that can e.g. be used for 'translation' of regional sea level rise evidence and projections to concrete impact measures. This may be used by potentially affected stakeholders -often working in different sectors and across levels of governance, in a common appraisal of the challenges faced ahead. The model may also enter dynamic tools to evaluate local impact as sea level research advances and projections for the future are updated.

  16. Preliminary Guideline for the High Temperature Structure Integrity Assessment Procedure Part II. High Temperature Structural Integrity Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Jae Han; Kim, J. B.; Lee, H. Y.; Park, C. G.; Joo, Y. S.; Koo, G. H.; Kim, S. H

    2007-02-15

    A high temperature structural integrity assessment belongs to the Part II of a whole preliminary guideline for the high temperature structure. The main contents of this guideline are the evaluation procedures of the creep-fatigue crack initiation and growth in high temperature condition, the high temperature LBB evaluation procedure, and the inelastic evaluations of the welded joints in SFR structures. The methodologies for the proper inelastic analysis of an SFR structures in high temperatures are explained and the guidelines of inelastic analysis options using ANSYS and ABAQUS are suggested. In addition, user guidelines for the developed NONSTA code are included. This guidelines need to be continuously revised to improve the applicability to the design and analysis of the SFR structures.

  17. Developing an integration tool for soil contamination assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anaya-Romero, Maria; Zingg, Felix; Pérez-Álvarez, José Miguel; Madejón, Paula; Kotb Abd-Elmabod, Sameh

    2015-04-01

    In the last decades, huge soil areas have been negatively influenced or altered in multiples forms. Soils and, consequently, underground water, have been contaminated by accumulation of contaminants from agricultural activities (fertilizers and pesticides) industrial activities (harmful material dumping, sludge, flying ashes) and urban activities (hydrocarbon, metals from vehicle traffic, urban waste dumping). In the framework of the RECARE project, local partners across Europe are focusing on a wide range of soil threats, as soil contamination, and aiming to develop effective prevention, remediation and restoration measures by designing and applying targeted land management strategies (van Lynden et al., 2013). In this context, the Guadiamar Green Corridor (Southern Spain) was used as a case study, aiming to obtain soil data and new information in order to assess soil contamination. The main threat in the Guadiamar valley is soil contamination after a mine spill occurred on April 1998. About four hm3 of acid waters and two hm3 of mud, rich in heavy metals, were released into the Agrio and Guadiamar rivers affecting more than 4,600 ha of agricultural and pasture land. Main trace elements contaminating soil and water were As, Cd, Cu, Pb, Tl and Zn. The objective of the present research is to develop informatics tools that integrate soil database, models and interactive platforms for soil contamination assessment. Preliminary results were obtained related to the compilation of harmonized databases including geographical, hydro-meteorological, soil and socio-economic variables based on spatial analysis and stakeholder's consultation. Further research will be modellization and upscaling at the European level, in order to obtain a scientifically-technical predictive tool for the assessment of soil contamination.

  18. An Integrated Systems Approach to Designing Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryu, D.; Malano, H. M.; Davidson, B.; George, B.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change projections are characterised by large uncertainties with rainfall variability being the key challenge in designing adaptation policies. Climate change adaptation in water resources shows all the typical characteristics of 'wicked' problems typified by cognitive uncertainty as new scientific knowledge becomes available, problem instability, knowledge imperfection and strategic uncertainty due to institutional changes that inevitably occur over time. Planning that is characterised by uncertainties and instability requires an approach that can accommodate flexibility and adaptive capacity for decision-making. An ability to take corrective measures in the event that scenarios and responses envisaged initially derive into forms at some future stage. We present an integrated-multidisciplinary and comprehensive framework designed to interface and inform science and decision making in the formulation of water resource management strategies to deal with climate change in the Musi Catchment of Andhra Pradesh, India. At the core of this framework is a dialogue between stakeholders, decision makers and scientists to define a set of plausible responses to an ensemble of climate change scenarios derived from global climate modelling. The modelling framework used to evaluate the resulting combination of climate scenarios and adaptation responses includes the surface and groundwater assessment models (SWAT & MODFLOW) and the water allocation modelling (REALM) to determine the water security of each adaptation strategy. Three climate scenarios extracted from downscaled climate models were selected for evaluation together with four agreed responses—changing cropping patterns, increasing watershed development, changing the volume of groundwater extraction and improving irrigation efficiency. Water security in this context is represented by the combination of level of water availability and its associated security of supply for three economic activities (agriculture

  19. Large capacity storage of integrated objects before change blindness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lamme, V.A.F.; Spekreijse, H.; Landman, R.

    2003-01-01

    Normal people have a strikingly low ability to detect changes in a visual scene. In the present study, Ss were asked to detect changes in the orientation of rectangular figures in a textured display across a 1600 ms gray interval. In the first experiment, change detection improved when the location

  20. Changing the culture of assessment: the dominance of the summative assessment paradigm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harrison, C.J.; Konings, K.D.; Schuwirth, L.W.; Wass, V.; Vleuten, C.P.M. van der

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Despite growing evidence of the benefits of including assessment for learning strategies within programmes of assessment, practical implementation of these approaches is often problematical. Organisational culture change is often hindered by personal and collective beliefs which

  1. An assessment of the spatial and temporal changes of Mabira ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An assessment of the spatial and temporal changes of Mabira tropical forest ... The non-significant drivers included the low education levels, establishment of ... in the sustainable utilization of forest products and biodiversity conservation.

  2. The Complexity of Integrity Culture Change: A Case Study of a Liberal Arts College

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertram Gallant, Tricia

    2007-01-01

    The concept of academic integrity has been resurrected in both literature and practice in response to a perceived problem of student academic dishonesty. Most specifically, academic integrity advocates suggest changing the student academic culture to normalize academic integrity and reduce occurrences of academic dishonesty. Theories of…

  3. WP 2 Report: Integrated Status Quo and Trends Assessment in Wuxi. Overview of WP 2 Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dienst, Carmen; Hoeller, Samuel; Saurat, Mathieu; Schneider, Clemens; Xia-Bauer, Chun (Wuppertal Institute (Germany)); Oberheitmann, Andreas (China Environmental Research (China)); Fischer, Tom; Gemmer, Marco; Jiang Tong (China Meteorological Administration, National Climate Centre (China)); Wang Can; Wang Haoping (Tsinghua University, Research Centre for International Environmental Policy (China)); Ren Hongyan; Sui Xinying (Wuxi Low Carbon Development Research Centre (China))

    2013-04-01

    The overall project will scientifically explore the Low Carbon Future City (LCFC) concept in two case studies: the German region of Dusseldorf and the Chinese city of Wuxi, Jiangsu Province. The Wuppertal Institute together with a consortium of Chinese scientific institutes is developing integrated low carbon city strategies for the two pilot regions. The project is funded by the German Stiftung Mercator. Provided in this report, as part of the scientific analysis of the Chinese pilot region, is a comprehensive status quo and trends assessment of greenhouse gas emissions, climate change and resource use in Wuxi. It includes a GHG inventory, a business-as-usual scenario for GHG emissions, scenarios for future climate change and its impacts as well as an analysis of future resource use in the energy and buildings sector of Wuxi. Based on this assessment, the authors have selected key sectors for which low carbon scenarios as well as policy strategies will be finalised.

  4. A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of multiple risks in delta areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    The assessment of climate change related risks is notoriously difficult due to the complex and uncertain combinations of hazardous events that might happen, the multiplicity of physical processes involved, the continuous changes and interactions of environmental and socio-economic systems. One important challenge lies in predicting and modelling cascades of natural and man -made hazard events which can be triggered by climate change, encompassing different spatial and temporal scales. Another regard the potentially difficult integration of environmental, social and economic disciplines in the multi-risk concept. Finally, the effective interaction between scientists and stakeholders is essential to ensure that multi-risk knowledge is translated into efficient adaptation and management strategies. The assessment is even more complex at the scale of deltaic systems which are particularly vulnerable to global environmental changes, due to the fragile equilibrium between the presence of valuable natural ecosystems and relevant economic activities. Improving our capacity to assess the combined effects of multiple hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surges, reduction in sediment load, local subsidence, saltwater intrusion) is therefore essential to identify timely opportunities for adaptation. A holistic multi-risk approach is here proposed to integrate terminology, metrics and methodologies from different research fields (i.e. environmental, social and economic sciences) thus creating shared knowledge areas to advance multi risk assessment and management in delta regions. A first testing of the approach, including the application of Bayesian network analysis for the assessment of impacts of climate change on key natural systems (e.g. wetlands, protected areas, beaches) and socio-economic activities (e.g. agriculture, tourism), is applied in the Po river delta in Northern Italy. The approach is based on a bottom-up process involving local stakeholders early in different

  5. Need for an "integrated safety assessment" of GMOs, linking food safety and environmental considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haslberger, Alexander G

    2006-05-03

    Evidence for substantial environmental influences on health and food safety comes from work with environmental health indicators which show that agroenvironmental practices have direct and indirect effects on human health, concluding that "the quality of the environment influences the quality and safety of foods" [Fennema, O. Environ. Health Perspect. 1990, 86, 229-232). In the field of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), Codex principles have been established for the assessment of GM food safety and the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety outlines international principles for an environmental assessment of living modified organisms. Both concepts also contain starting points for an assessment of health/food safety effects of GMOs in cases when the environment is involved in the chain of events that could lead to hazards. The environment can act as a route of unintentional entry of GMOs into the food supply, such as in the case of gene flow via pollen or seeds from GM crops, but the environment can also be involved in changes of GMO-induced agricultural practices with relevance for health/food safety. Examples for this include potential regional changes of pesticide uses and reduction in pesticide poisonings resulting from the use of Bt crops or influences on immune responses via cross-reactivity. Clearly, modern methods of biotechnology in breeding are involved in the reasons behind the rapid reduction of local varieties in agrodiversity, which constitute an identified hazard for food safety and food security. The health/food safety assessment of GM foods in cases when the environment is involved needs to be informed by data from environmental assessment. Such data might be especially important for hazard identification and exposure assessment. International organizations working in these areas will very likely be needed to initiate and enable cooperation between those institutions responsible for the different assessments, as well as for exchange and analysis of

  6. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, G; Stone, D

    2016-01-01

    © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts...

  7. Assessing the Energy and Emissions Implications of Alternative Population Scenarios Using a State-Level Integrated Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, W.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D. H.; Ou, Y.; Smith, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    We use GCAM-USA to examine the sensitivity of energy demands and resulting pollutant emissions and health impacts to differing population projections. The population projections are based on future fertility, mortality, migration and education assumptions consistent with the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (Jones and O'Neill, 2016). By using a state-level integrated assessment model, we capture the energy and emissions implications of population changes. Additionally, we overlay heating degree days and cooling degree days calculated from climate change projections to assess the individual and combined impacts of population shifts and climate change. A unique aspect of this work is the explicit representation of important regulatory drivers, such as the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule and vehicle efficiency standards. Preliminary results indicate there are significant differences across population scenarios in both U.S. national and state-level emissions. In this presentation, we will examine the influence of underlying factors such as climate, population, and technology changes on emissions and environmental impacts at 2050.

  8. Life cycle assessment of roof integrated solar cell systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Brummelen, M.; Nieuwlaar, E.

    1994-01-01

    The research protocol, applied in this report, is designed for use within the energy R and D-context: it provides a framework for finding bottlenecks and opportunities for (new) energy technologies in the context of (energy) resource scarcity and environmental issues. Finding and analyzing these bottlenecks and opportunities is a major objective of this study. A derived objective of this study is to gain experience in using the LCA-framework and the research protocol described earlier, and to evaluate the usefulness of these instruments in helping to find and analyze bottlenecks and opportunities in energy technologies. Photovoltaic solar cell systems (PV systems) are comprised of solar cell modules and a Balance-of-System (BOS): a support structure and power conditioning equipment. In this LCA amorphous silicon cells (a-Si) are considered. For the Netherlands roof-integrated, grid-connected systems are assumed to be the major application of PV in the future. Two cases will be studied. In case 1 a system of 30 m 2 of modules which are connected to the grid via a single inverter are studied. The modules are comprised of a-Si cells and have a conversion efficiency of 10%. Integration into the roof is done with aluminium profiles. In case 2 a system of 30 m 2 a-Si cell modules integrated in the roof with plastic 'tiles' is studied. The modules have an efficiency of 15% and connection to the grid is more or less centralized: 25 systems share an inverter which is connected to the grid. The goal and scope of the LCA and the functional unit are described in chapter 2. In chapter 3 the process tree and descriptions of the distinguished processes are given and the inventory table is drawn up. In chapter 4 the impact assessment is dealt with, followed by a discussion of improvement options in chapter 5. Conclusions and recommendations are given in the chapters 6 and 7 only regarding the environmental aspects. 9 figs., 13 tabs., 4 appendices, 13 refs

  9. Vulnerability Assessment, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Measures in Slovenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cegnar, T.

    2010-09-01

    In relation to the priority tasks of the climate change measures, the Republic of Slovenia estimates that special attention needs to be devoted to the following sectors in general: - sectors that currently indicate a strong vulnerability for the current climate variability (for instance, agriculture), - sectors where the vulnerability for climate change is increased by current trends (for instance, urban development, use of space), - sectors where the adaptation time is the longest and the subsequent development changes are connected with the highest costs (for instance, use of space, infrastructural objects, forestry, urban development, building stock). Considering the views of Slovenia to the climate change problem in Europe and Slovenia, priority measures and emphasis on future adaptation to climate change, the Republic of Slovenia has especially exposed the following action areas: - sustainable and integrated management of water sources for water power production, prevention of floods, provision of water for the enrichment of low flow rates, and preservation of environmental function as well as provision of water for other needs; - sustainable management of forest ecosystems, adjusted to changes, for the provision of their environmental function as well as being a source of biomass, wood for products for the conservation of carbon, and carbon sinks; - spatial planning as one of the important preventive instruments for the adaptation to climate change through the processes of integral planning of spatial and urban development; - sustainable use and preservation of natural wealth and the preservation of biodiversity as well as ecosystem services with measures and policies that enable an enhanced resistance of ecosystems to climate change, and the role of biological diversity in integral adaptation measures; - informing and awareness on the consequences of climate change and adaptation possibilities. For years, the most endangered sectors have been agriculture and

  10. Vulnerability studies and integrated assessments for hazard risk reduction in Pittsburgh, PA (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klima, K.

    2013-12-01

    Today's environmental problems stretch beyond the bounds of most academic disciplines, and thus solutions require an interdisciplinary approach. For instance, the scientific consensus is changes in the frequency and severity of many types of extreme weather events are increasing (IPCC 2012). Yet despite our efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, we continue to experience severe weather events such as Superstorm Sandy, record heat and blizzards, and droughts. These natural hazards, combined with increased vulnerability and exposure, result in longer-lasting disruptions to critical infrastructure and business continuity throughout the world. In order to protect both our lives and the economy, we must think beyond the bounds of any one discipline to include an integrated assessment of relevant work. In the wake of recent events, New York City, Washington, DC, Chicago, and a myriad of other cities have turned to their academic powerhouses for assistance in better understanding their vulnerabilities. This talk will share a case study of the state of integrated assessments and vulnerability studies of energy, transportation, water, real estate, and other main sectors in Pittsburgh, PA. Then the talk will use integrated assessment models and other vulnerability studies to create coordinated sets of climate projections for use by the many public agencies and private-sector organizations in the region.

  11. Integration of Evidence Base into a Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saile, Lyn; Lopez, Vilma; Bickham, Grandin; Kerstman, Eric; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary; Byrne, Vicky; Butler, Douglas; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei

    2011-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: A probabilistic decision support model such as the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) utilizes an immense amount of input data that necessitates a systematic, integrated approach for data collection, and management. As a result of this approach, IMM is able to forecasts medical events, resource utilization and crew health during space flight. METHODS: Inflight data is the most desirable input for the Integrated Medical Model. Non-attributable inflight data is collected from the Lifetime Surveillance for Astronaut Health study as well as the engineers, flight surgeons, and astronauts themselves. When inflight data is unavailable cohort studies, other models and Bayesian analyses are used, in addition to subject matters experts input on occasion. To determine the quality of evidence of a medical condition, the data source is categorized and assigned a level of evidence from 1-5; the highest level is one. The collected data reside and are managed in a relational SQL database with a web-based interface for data entry and review. The database is also capable of interfacing with outside applications which expands capabilities within the database itself. Via the public interface, customers can access a formatted Clinical Findings Form (CLiFF) that outlines the model input and evidence base for each medical condition. Changes to the database are tracked using a documented Configuration Management process. DISSCUSSION: This strategic approach provides a comprehensive data management plan for IMM. The IMM Database s structure and architecture has proven to support additional usages. As seen by the resources utilization across medical conditions analysis. In addition, the IMM Database s web-based interface provides a user-friendly format for customers to browse and download the clinical information for medical conditions. It is this type of functionality that will provide Exploratory Medicine Capabilities the evidence base for their medical condition list

  12. Measures for assessing practice change in medical practitioners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakkennes, Sharon; Green, Sally

    2006-12-06

    There are increasing numbers of randomised trials and systematic reviews examining the efficacy of interventions designed to bring about a change in clinical practice. The findings of this research are being used to guide strategies to increase the uptake of evidence into clinical practice. Knowledge of the outcomes measured by these trials is vital not only for the interpretation and application of the work done to date, but also to inform future research in this expanding area of endeavour and to assist in collation of results in systematic reviews and meta-analyses. The objective of this review was to identify methods used to measure change in the clinical practices of health professionals following an intervention aimed at increasing the uptake of evidence into practice. All published trials included in a recent, comprehensive Health Technology Assessment of interventions to implement clinical practice guidelines and change clinical practice (n = 228) formed the sample for this study. Using a standardised data extraction form, one reviewer (SH), extracted the relevant information from the methods and/or results sections of the trials. Measures of a change of health practitioner behaviour were the most common, with 88.8% of trials using these as outcome measures. Measures that assessed change at a patient level, either actual measures of change or surrogate measures of change, were used in 28.8% and 36.7% of studies (respectively). Health practitioners' knowledge and attitudes were assessed in 22.8% of the studies and changes at an organisational level were assessed in 17.6%. Most trials of interventions aimed at changing clinical practice measured the effect of the intervention at the level of the practitioner, i.e. did the practitioner change what they do, or has their knowledge of and/or attitude toward that practice changed? Less than one-third of the trials measured, whether or not any change in practice, resulted in a change in the ultimate end-point of

  13. Recent changes in Central European landscapes: An integrative ecological approach

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Těšitel, Jan; Kučera, Tomáš

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 24, č. 1 (2005), s. 3-6 ISSN 1335-342X Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : integrative ecological approach * transdisciplinarity * interdisciplinarity * landscape ecology Subject RIV: DO - Wilderness Conservation Impact factor: 0.085, year: 2005

  14. The case for integrated air quality and climate change policies

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Thambiran, Tirusha

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available integration of these two issues, and actions to support the implementation thereof, are presented in this paper using the city of Durban as a case study. The results from this case study suggest that in the short-to medium-term, local AQMPs can be used...

  15. Using Classroom Assessment To Change Both Teaching and Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steadman, Mimi

    1998-01-01

    Summarizes results of a study on implementation and impact of classroom assessment techniques (CATs) in community colleges, examining how classroom assessment has been applied by teachers, documenting changes in teaching behaviors, and considering costs and benefits. Also examines students' experiences and satisfaction with courses taught using…

  16. Using Bayesian networks to assess the vulnerability of Hawaiian terrestrial biota to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortini, L.; Jacobi, J.; Price, J.; Vorsino, A.; Paxton, E.; Amidon, F.; 'Ohukani'ohi'a Gon, S., III; Koob, G.; Brink, K.; Burgett, J.; Miller, S.

    2012-12-01

    As the effects of climate change on individual species become increasingly apparent, there is a clear need for effective adaptation planning to prevent an increase in species extinctions worldwide. Given the limited understanding of species responses to climate change, vulnerability assessments and species distribution models (SDMs) have been two common tools used to jump-start climate change adaptation efforts. However, although these two approaches generally serve the same purpose of understanding species future responses to climate change, they have rarely mixed. In collaboration with research and management partners from federal, state and non-profit organizations, we are conducting a climate change vulnerability assessment for hundreds of plant and forest bird species of the Main Hawaiian Islands. This assessment is the first to comprehensively consider the potential threats of climate change to a significant portion of Hawaii's fauna and flora (over one thousand species considered) and thus fills a critical gap defined by natural resource scientists and managers in the region. We have devised a flexible approach that effectively integrates species distribution models into a vulnerability assessment framework that can be easily updated with improved models and data. This tailors our assessment approach to the Pacific Island reality of often limited and fragmented information on species and large future climate uncertainties, This vulnerability assessment is based on a Bayesian network-based approach that integrates multiple landscape (e.g., topographic diversity, dispersal barriers), species trait (e.g., generation length, fecundity) and expert-knowledge based information (e.g., capacity to colonize restored habitat) relevant to long-term persistence of species under climate change. Our presentation will highlight some of the results from our assessment but will mainly focus on the utility of the flexible approach we have developed and its potential

  17. A comparison of integrated safety analysis and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Damon, Dennis R.; Mattern, Kevin S.

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission conducted a comparison of two standard tools for risk informing the regulatory process, namely, the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and the Integrated Safety Analysis (ISA). PRA is a calculation of risk metrics, such as Large Early Release Frequency (LERF), and has been used to assess the safety of all commercial power reactors. ISA is an analysis required for fuel cycle facilities (FCFs) licensed to possess potentially critical quantities of special nuclear material. A PRA is usually more detailed and uses more refined models and data than an ISA, in order to obtain reasonable quantitative estimates of risk. PRA is considered fully quantitative, while most ISAs are typically only partially quantitative. The extension of PRA methodology to augment or supplant ISAs in FCFs has long been considered. However, fuel cycle facilities have a wide variety of possible accident consequences, rather than a few surrogates like LERF or core damage as used for reactors. It has been noted that a fuel cycle PRA could be used to better focus attention on the most risk-significant structures, systems, components, and operator actions. ISA and PRA both identify accident sequences; however, their treatment is quite different. ISA's identify accidents that lead to high or intermediate consequences, as defined in 10 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 70, and develop a set of Items Relied on For Safety (IROFS) to assure adherence to performance criteria. PRAs identify potential accident scenarios and estimate their frequency and consequences to obtain risk metrics. It is acceptable for ISAs to provide bounding evaluations of accident consequences and likelihoods in order to establish acceptable safety; but PRA applications usually require a reasonable quantitative estimate, and often obtain metrics of uncertainty. This paper provides the background, features, and methodology associated with the PRA and ISA. The differences between the

  18. An integrated framework to address climate change (ESCAPE) and further developments of the global and regional climate modules (MAGICC)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.

    1995-01-01

    ESCAPE (the Evaluation of Strategies to address Climate change by Adapting to and Preventing Emissions) is an integrated climate change assessment model constructed between 1990 and 1992 for DG XI of the Commission of the European Community by a consortium of research institutes headed by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). It has been designed to enable the user to generate future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (through an energy-economic model), examine their impact on global climate and sea level (through two independent global climate models), and illustrate some of the consequences of this global climate change at a regional scale for the European Community (through a regional climate scenario generator and impact models). We provide a very brief overview of the ESCAPE model which, although innovative, suffers from a number of major limitations. Subsequent work in the CRU has concentrated on improvements to the global climate module and work has also commenced on an improved regional climate scenario generating module. These improvements will lead to a new integrated climate change assessment model, MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change) which can easily be incorporated into new larger integrated frameworks developed by other institutes. (Author)

  19. Examining Changes of Preservice Teachers' Beliefs about Technology Integration during Student Teaching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Pi-Sui

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this qualitative case study was to examine changes in preservice teachers' beliefs about technology integration during the student teaching semester in USA. This study used in-depth interviews, review of documents, and observations. The findings indicated the preservice teachers' beliefs about technology integration changed in two…

  20. Episode-Centered Guidelines for Teacher Belief Change toward Technology Integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Er, Erkan; Kim, ChanMin

    2017-01-01

    Teachers' episodic memories influence their beliefs. The investigation of episodic memories can help identify the teacher beliefs that limit technology-integration. We propose the Episode-Centered Belief Change (ECBC) model that utilizes teachers' episodic memories for changing beliefs impeding effective technology integration. We also propose…

  1. Integrated Theory of Health Behavior Change: Background and Intervention Development

    OpenAIRE

    RYAN, POLLY

    2009-01-01

    An essential characteristic of advanced practice nurses is the use of theory in practice. Clinical nurse specialists apply theory in providing or directing patient care, in their work as consultants to staff nurses, and as leaders influencing and facilitating system change. Knowledge of technology and pharmacology has far outpaced knowledge of how to facilitate health behavior change, and new theories are needed to better understand how practitioners can facilitate health behavior change. In ...

  2. Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Forestry Development in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Forestry and forest ecosystem are highly sensitive to climate change.At present,studies about the responses of forests to climate change in China are more focused on physical influences of climate change.This paper firstly divided the key impact factors of climate change on forest and forestry developing into direct factors and indirect factors,and then made an assessment on climate change affecting future forestry development from the aspect of forest products and ecological services.On this basis,the adap...

  3. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hansen, G.E.

    2015-01-01

    Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    Gerrit Hansen

    Global climate change is unequivocal, and greenhouse gas emissions continue rising despite international mitigation efforts. Hence whether and to what extent the impacts of human induced

  4. Assessment of farm households' vulnerability to climate change in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate change is currently an emerging problem in Nigeria. The Niger Delta region presents some vulnerability due to activities of some oil companies. This study provides an assessment of farm households' perception of climate change and vulnerability in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. The data were obtained form ...

  5. Assessing climate change impacts on water balance in the Mount

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A statistical downscaling known for producing station-scale climate information from GCM output was preferred to evaluate the impacts of climate change within the Mount Makiling forest watershed, Philippines. The lumped hydrologic BROOK90 model was utilized for the water balance assessment of climate change ...

  6. Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandryk, M.; Reidsma, P.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2012-01-01

    Towards 2050, climate change is one of the possible drivers that will change the farming landscape, but market, policy and technological development may be at least equally important. In the last decade, many studies assessed impacts of climate change and specific adaptation strategies. However,

  7. U.S. Global Change Research Program National Climate Assessment Global Change Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmes, Curt

    2012-01-01

    The program: a) Coordinates Federal research to better understand and prepare the nation for global change. b) Priori4zes and supports cutting edge scientific work in global change. c) Assesses the state of scientific knowledge and the Nation s readiness to respond to global change. d) Communicates research findings to inform, educate, and engage the global community.

  8. A flexible climate model for use in integrated assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokolov, A. P.; Stone, P. H.

    Because of significant uncertainty in the behavior of the climate system, evaluations of the possible impact of an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere require a large number of long-term climate simulations. Studies of this kind are impossible to carry out with coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) because of their tremendous computer resource requirements. Here we describe a two dimensional (zonally averaged) atmospheric model coupled with a diffusive ocean model developed for use in the integrated framework of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. The 2-D model has been developed from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM and includes parametrizations of all the main physical processes. This allows it to reproduce many of the nonlinear interactions occurring in simulations with GCMs. Comparisons of the results of present-day climate simulations with observations show that the model reasonably reproduces the main features of the zonally averaged atmospheric structure and circulation. The model's sensitivity can be varied by changing the magnitude of an inserted additional cloud feedback. Equilibrium responses of different versions of the 2-D model to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO2 are compared with results of similar simulations with different AGCMs. It is shown that the additional cloud feedback does not lead to any physically inconsistent results. On the contrary, changes in climate variables such as precipitation and evaporation, and their dependencies on surface warming produced by different versions of the MIT 2-D model are similar to those shown by GCMs. By choosing appropriate values of the deep ocean diffusion coefficients, the transient behavior of different AOGCMs can be matched in simulations with the 2-D model, with a unique choice of diffusion coefficients allowing one to match the performance of a given AOGCM

  9. Lessons learned from Khartoum flash flood impacts: An integrated assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmood, Mohamad Ibrahim; Elagib, Nadir Ahmed; Horn, Finlay; Saad, Suhair A G

    2017-12-01

    This study aims at enabling the compilation of key lessons for decision makers and urban planners in rapidly urbanizing cities regarding the identification of representative, chief causal natural and human factors for the increased level of flash flood risk. To achieve this, the impacts of flash flood events of 2013 and 2014 in the capital of Sudan, Khartoum, were assessed using seven integrated approaches, i.e. rainfall data analysis, document analysis of affected people and houses, observational fieldwork in the worst flood affected areas, people's perception of causes and mitigation measures through household interviews, reported drinking water quality, reported water-related diseases and social risk assessment. Several lessons have been developed as follows. Urban planners must recognize the devastating risks of building within natural pathways of ephemeral watercourses. They must also ensure effective drainage infrastructures and physio-geographical investigations prior to developing urban areas. The existing urban drainage systems become ineffective due to blockage by urban waste. Building of unauthorized drainage and embankment structures by locals often cause greater flood problems than normal. The urban runoff is especially problematic for residential areas built within low-lying areas having naturally low infiltration capacity, as surface water can rapidly collect within hollows and depressions, or beside elevated roads that preclude the free flow of floodwater. Weak housing and infrastructure quality are especially vulnerable to flash flooding and even to rainfall directly. Establishment of services infrastructure is imperative for flash flood disaster risk reduction. Water supply should be from lower aquifers to avoid contaminant groundwater. Regular monitoring of water quality and archiving of its indicators help identify water-related diseases and sources of water contamination in the event of environmental disasters such as floods. Though the

  10. Application of the Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process for Missouri Streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennen, Jonathan G.; Henriksen, James A.; Heasley, John; Cade, Brian S.; Terrell, James W.

    2009-01-01

    Natural flow regime concepts and theories have established the justification for maintaining or restoring the range of natural hydrologic variability so that physiochemical processes, native biodiversity, and the evolutionary potential of aquatic and riparian assemblages can be sustained. A synthesis of recent research advances in hydroecology, coupled with stream classification using hydroecologically relevant indices, has produced the Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process (HIP). HIP consists of (1) a regional classification of streams into hydrologic stream types based on flow data from long-term gaging-station records for relatively unmodified streams, (2) an identification of stream-type specific indices that address 11 subcomponents of the flow regime, (3) an ability to establish environmental flow standards, (4) an evaluation of hydrologic alteration, and (5) a capacity to conduct alternative analyses. The process starts with the identification of a hydrologic baseline (reference condition) for selected locations, uses flow data from a stream-gage network, and proceeds to classify streams into hydrologic stream types. Concurrently, the analysis identifies a set of non-redundant and ecologically relevant hydrologic indices for 11 subcomponents of flow for each stream type. Furthermore, regional hydrologic models for synthesizing flow conditions across a region and the development of flow-ecology response relations for each stream type can be added to further enhance the process. The application of HIP to Missouri streams identified five stream types ((1) intermittent, (2) perennial runoff-flashy, (3) perennial runoff-moderate baseflow, (4) perennial groundwater-stable, and (5) perennial groundwater-super stable). Two Missouri-specific computer software programs were developed: (1) a Missouri Hydrologic Assessment Tool (MOHAT) which is used to establish a hydrologic baseline, provide options for setting environmental flow standards, and compare past and

  11. Using integrated environmental modeling to automate a process-based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, an...

  12. Using Integrated Environmental Modeling to Automate a Process-Based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, and...

  13. A study of non destructive integrity assessment method for structural materials of nuclear reactor. Part 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Totsuka, Nobuo; Matsuzaki, Akihiro

    2011-01-01

    The hardness measurement is one of the most effective way for non destructive integrity assessment evaluating structural materials of nuclear power plants before and after suffering an earthquake. Then an actual evaluation method and effectiveness of the method using portable hardness tester has been reported in the previous Journal. In this study, the developing method which can evaluate more accurately the amount of plastic deformation of the material caused by an earthquake has been reported, based on the experimental results about the hardness change of the material considering the thermal aging due to the plant operation and the cyclic deformation suffered by an earthquake. (author)

  14. Climate change adaptation impact cost assessment in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    This document reports the works of an inter-departmental group and of sector-based and transverse groups which aimed at assessing the impacts of climate change. After a first contribution about the assessment methodology, the works of sector-based groups and transverse groups are reported. These groups are dealing with agriculture, forest, infrastructures and built environment, tourism, energy, health, water, natural risks (and insurance and adaptation to climatic change in metropolitan France), biodiversity and land. For each of them, challenges, assessment approaches, first results and perspectives are discussed

  15. Application of a faith-based integration tool to assess mental and physical health interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saunders, Donna M; Leak, Jean; Carver, Monique E; Smith, Selina A

    2017-01-01

    To build on current research involving faith-based interventions (FBIs) for addressing mental and physical health, this study a) reviewed the extent to which relevant publications integrate faith concepts with health and b) initiated analysis of the degree of FBI integration with intervention outcomes. Derived from a systematic search of articles published between 2007 and 2017, 36 studies were assessed with a Faith-Based Integration Assessment Tool (FIAT) to quantify faith-health integration. Basic statistical procedures were employed to determine the association of faith-based integration with intervention outcomes. The assessed studies possessed (on average) moderate, inconsistent integration because of poor use of faith measures, and moderate, inconsistent use of faith practices. Analysis procedures for determining the effect of FBI integration on intervention outcomes were inadequate for formulating practical conclusions. Regardless of integration, interventions were associated with beneficial outcomes. To determine the link between FBI integration and intervention outcomes, additional analyses are needed.

  16. Therapeutic Enactment: Integrating Individual and Group Counseling Models for Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westwood, Marvin J.; Keats, Patrice A.; Wilensky, Patricia

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to introduce the reader to a group-based therapy model known as therapeutic enactment. A description of this multimodal change model is provided by outlining the relevant background information, key concepts related to specific change processes, and the differences in this model compared to earlier psychodrama…

  17. Integrated Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards in Motozintla, Chiapas, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novelo-Casanova, D. A.

    2012-12-01

    An integrated risk assessment includes the analysis of all components of individual constituents of risk such as baseline study, hazard identification and categorization, hazard exposure, and vulnerability. Vulnerability refers to the inability of people, organizations, and societies to withstand adverse impacts from multiple stressors to which they are exposed. These impacts are due to characteristics inherent in social interactions, institutions, and systems of cultural values. Thus, social vulnerability is a pre-existing condition that affects a society's ability to prepare for and recover from a disruptive event. Risk is the probability of a loss, and this loss depends on three elements: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Thus, risk is the estimated impact that a hazard event would have on people, services, facilities, structures and assets in a community. In this work we assess the risk to natural hazards in the community of Motozintla located in southern Mexico in the state of Chiapas (15.37N, 92.25W) with a population of about 20 000 habitants. Due to its geographical and geological location, this community is continuously exposed to many different natural hazards (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, and floods). To determine the level of exposure of the community to natural hazards, we developed integrated studies and analysis of seismic microzonation, landslide and flood susceptibility as well as volcanic impact using standard methodologies. Social vulnerability was quantified from data obtained from local families interviews. Five variables were considered: household structure quality and design, availability of basic public services, family economic conditions, existing family plans for disaster preparedness, and risk perception.The number of families surveyed was determined considering a sample statistically significant. The families that were interviewed were selected using the simple random sampling technique with replacement. With these

  18. Fuel pin integrity assessment under large scale transients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dutta, B.K.

    2006-01-01

    The integrity of fuel rods under normal, abnormal and accident conditions is an important consideration during fuel design of advanced nuclear reactors. The fuel matrix and the sheath form the first barrier to prevent the release of radioactive materials into the primary coolant. An understanding of the fuel and clad behaviour under different reactor conditions, particularly under the beyond-design-basis accident scenario leading to large scale transients, is always desirable to assess the inherent safety margins in fuel pin design and to plan for the mitigation the consequences of accidents, if any. The severe accident conditions are typically characterized by the energy deposition rates far exceeding the heat removal capability of the reactor coolant system. This may lead to the clad failure due to fission gas pressure at high temperature, large- scale pellet-clad interaction and clad melting. The fuel rod performance is affected by many interdependent complex phenomena involving extremely complex material behaviour. The versatile experimental database available in this area has led to the development of powerful analytical tools to characterize fuel under extreme scenarios

  19. Integrated spatial assessment of wind erosion risk in Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Pásztor

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Wind erosion susceptibility of Hungarian soils was mapped on the national level integrating three factors of the complex phenomenon of deflation (physical soil features, wind characteristics, and land use and land cover. Results of wind tunnel experiments on erodibility of representative soil samples were used for the parametrization of a countrywide map of soil texture compiled for the upper 5 cm layer of soil, which resulted in a map representing threshold wind velocity exceedance. Average wind velocity was spatially estimated with 0.5′ resolution using the Meteorological Interpolation based on Surface Homogenised Data Basis (MISH method elaborated for the spatial interpolation of surface meteorological elements. The probability of threshold wind velocity exceedance was determined based on values predicted by the soil texture map at the grid locations. Ratio values were further interpolated to a finer 1 ha resolution using sand and silt content of the uppermost (0–5 cm layer of soil as spatial co-variables. Land cover was also taken into account, excluding areas that are not relevant to wind erosion (forests, water bodies, settlements, etc., to spatially assess the risk of wind erosion. According to the resulting map of wind erosion susceptibility, about 10 % of the total area of Hungary can be identified as susceptible to wind erosion. The map gives more detailed insight into the spatial distribution of wind-affected areas in Hungary compared to previous studies.

  20. INTEGRATING HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT PRINCIPLES IN FORMULARY MANAGEMENT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, Monica; Khoo, Ai Leng; Zhao, Ying Jiao; Lin, Liang; Lim, Boon Peng

    2016-01-01

    Effective formulary management in healthcare institutions safeguards rational drug use and optimizes health outcomes. We implemented a formulary management program integrating the principles of health technology assessment (HTA) to improve the safe, appropriate, and cost-effective use of medicine in Singapore. A 3-year formulary management program was initiated in 2011 in five public healthcare institutions. This program was managed by a project team comprising HTA researchers. The project team worked with institutional pharmacy and therapeutics (P&T) committees to: (i) develop tools for formulary drug review and decision making; (ii) enhance the HTA knowledge and skills of formulary pharmacists and members of P&T committees; (iii) devise a prioritization framework to overcome resource constraints and time pressure; and (iv) conceptualize and implement a framework to review existing formulary. Tools that facilitate drug request submission, drug review, and decision making were developed for formulary drug inclusion. A systematic framework to review existing formulary was also developed and tested in selected institutions. A competency development plan was rolled out over 2 years to enhance formulary pharmacists' proficiency in systematic literature search and review, meta-analysis, and pharmacoeconomic evaluation. The plan comprised training workshops and on-the-job knowledge transfer between the project team and institutional formulary pharmacists through collaborating on selected drug reviews. A resource guide that consolidated the tools and templates was published to encourage the adoption of best practices in formulary management. Based on the concepts of HTA, we implemented an evidence-based approach to optimize formulary management.

  1. Strategies for Integrating Content from the USGCRP Climate and Health Assessment into the K-12 Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haine, D. B.

    2016-12-01

    That the physical environment shapes the lives and behaviors of people is certainly not news, but communicating the impact of a changing climate on human health and predicting the trajectory of these changes is an active area of study in public health. From air quality concerns to extreme heat to shifts in the range of disease vectors, there are many opportunities to make connections between Earth's changing climate and human health. While many science teachers understand that addressing human health impacts as a result of a changing climate can provide needed relevance, it can be challenging for teachers to do so given an already packed curriculum. This session will share instructional strategies for integrating content from the USGCRP Climate and Health Assessment (CHA) by enhancing, rather than displacing content related to climate science. This presentation will feature a data interpretation activity developed in collaboration with geoscientists at the University of North Carolina's Gillings School of Public Health to convey the connection between air quality, climate change and human health. This classroom activity invites students to read excerpts from the CHA and interpret data presented in the scientific literature, thus promoting scientific literacy. In summarizing this activity, I will highlight strategies for effectively engaging geoscientists in developing scientifically rigorous, STEM-focused educational activities that are aligned to state and national science standards and also address the realities of the science classroom. Collaborating with geoscientists and translating their research into classroom activities is an approach that becomes more pertinent with the advent of the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS). Thus, the USGCRP Climate and Health Assessment represents an opportunity to cultivate science literacy among K-12 students while providing relevant learning experiences that promote integration of science and engineering practices as

  2. Foundation integrity assessment using integrated geophysical and geotechnical techniques: case study in crystalline basement complex, southwestern Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olayanju, G. M.; Mogaji, K. A.; Lim, H. S.; Ojo, T. S.

    2017-06-01

    The determination of parameters comprising exact depth to bedrock and its lithological type, lateral changes in lithology, and detection of fractures, cracks, or faults are essential to designing formidable foundations and assessing the integrity of civil engineering structures. In this study, soil and site characterization in a typical hard rock geologic terrain in southwestern Nigeria were carried out employing integrated geophysical and geotechnical techniques to address tragedies in civil engineering infrastructural development. The deployed geophysical measurements involved running both very low frequency electromagnetic (VLF-EM) and electrical resistivity methods (dipole-dipole imaging and vertical electrical sounding (VES) techniques) along the established traverses, while the latter technique entailed conducting geological laboratory sieve analysis and Atterberg limit-index tests upon the collected soil samples in the area. The results of the geophysical measurement, based on the interpreted VLF-EM and dipole-dipole data, revealed conductive zones and linear features interpreted as fractures/faults which endanger the foundations of public infrastructures. The delineation of four distinct geoelectric layers in the area—comprised of topsoil, lateritic/clayey substratum, weathered layer, and bedrock—were based on the VES results. Strong evidence, including high degree of decomposition and fracturing of underlying bedrock revealed by the VES results, confirmed the VLF-EM and dipole-dipole results. Furthermore, values in the range of 74.2%-77.8%, 55%-62.5%, 23.4%-24.5%, 7.7%-8.2%, 19.5%-22.4%, and 31.65%-38.25% were obtained for these geotechnical parameters viz soil percentage passing 0.075 mm sieve size, liquid limit, plasticity index, linear shrinkage, natural moisture content, and plastic limit, respectively, resulting from the geotechnical analysis of the soil samples. The comparatively analyzed geophysical and geotechnical results revealed a high

  3. Methodology to translate policy assessment problems into scenarios: the example of the SEAMLESS integrated framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Therond, O.; Belhouchette, H.; Janssen, S.J.C.; Louhichi, K.; Ewert, F.; Bergez, J.E.; Wery, J.; Heckelei, T.; Olsson, J.A.; Leenhardt, D.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2009-01-01

    Scenario-based approaches in environmental and policy assessment studies are increasingly applied within integrated assessment and modelling frameworks. The SEAMLESS project develops such an integrated framework (SEAMLESS-IF) aiming to assess, ex-ante, impacts of alternative agro-environmental

  4. Advanced energy technologies and climate change: An analysis using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edmonds, J.; Wise, M.; MacCracken, C.

    1994-01-01

    The authors report results from a ''top down'' energy-economy model employing ''bottom up'' assumptions and embedded in an integrated assessment framework, GCAM. The analysis shows that, from the perspective of long-term energy system development, differences in results from the ''top down'' and ''bottom up'' research communities would appear to be more closely linked to differences in assumptions regarding the economic cost associated with advanced technologies than to differences in modeling approach. The adoption of assumptions regarding advanced energy technologies were shown to have a profound effect on the future rate of anthropogenic climate change. The cumulative effect of the five sets of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv, the point at which atmospheric concentrations are double those that existed in the middle of the eighteenth century. The consideration of all greenhouse gases, and in particular sulfur, leads to some extremely interesting results that the rapid deployment of advanced energy technologies leads to higher temperatures prior to 2050 than in the reference case. This is due to the fact that the advanced energy technologies reduce sulfur emissions as well as those of carbon. The short-term cooling impact of sulfur dominates the long-term warming impact of CO 2 and CH 4 . While all energy technologies play roles, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology plays a particularly important role. 16 refs., 12 figs., 3 tabs

  5. Large capacity storage of integrated objects before change blindness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landman, Rogier; Spekreijse, Henk; Lamme, Victor A F

    2003-01-01

    Normal people have a strikingly low ability to detect changes in a visual scene. This has been taken as evidence that the brain represents only a few objects at a time, namely those currently in the focus of attention. In the present study, subjects were asked to detect changes in the orientation of rectangular figures in a textured display across a 1600 ms gray interval. In the first experiment, change detection improved when the location of a possible change was cued during the interval. The cue remained effective during the entire interval, but after the interval, it was ineffective, suggesting that an initially large representation was overwritten by the post-change display. To control for an effect of light intensity during the interval on the decay of the representation, we compared performance with a gray or a white interval screen in a second experiment. We found no difference between these conditions. In the third experiment, attention was occasionally misdirected during the interval by first cueing the wrong figure, before cueing the correct figure. This did not compromise performance compared to a single cue, indicating that when an item is attentionally selected, the representation of yet unchosen items remains available. In the fourth experiment, the cue was shown to be effective when changes in figure size and orientation were randomly mixed. At the time the cue appeared, subjects could not know whether size or orientation would change, therefore these results suggest that the representation contains features in their 'bound' state. Together, these findings indicate that change blindness involves overwriting of a large capacity representation by the post-change display.

  6. Integrated waste management as a climate change stabilisation wedge for the Maltese islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falzon, Clyde; Fabri, Simon G; Frysinger, Steven

    2013-01-01

    The continuous increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions occurring since the Industrial Revolution is offering significant ecological challenges to Earth. These emissions are leading to climate changes which bring about extensive damage to communities, ecosystems and resources. The analysis in this article is focussed on the waste sector within the Maltese islands, which is the largest greenhouse gas emitter in the archipelago following the energy and transportation sectors. This work shows how integrated waste management, based on a life cycle assessment methodology, acts as an effective stabilisation wedge strategy for climate change. Ten different scenarios applicable to the Maltese municipal solid waste management sector are analysed. It is shown that the scenario that is most coherent with the stabilisation wedges strategy for the Maltese islands consists of 50% landfilling, 30% mechanical biological treatment and 20% recyclable waste export for recycling. It is calculated that 16.6 Mt less CO2-e gases would be emitted over 50 years by means of this integrated waste management stabilisation wedge when compared to the business-as-usual scenario. These scientific results provide evidence in support of policy development in Malta that is implemented through legislation, economic instruments and other applicable tools.

  7. Integrating Communication Best Practices in the Third National Climate Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassol, S. J.

    2014-12-01

    Modern climate science assessments now have a history of nearly a quarter-century. This experience, together with important advances in relevant social sciences, has greatly improved our ability to communicate climate science effectively. As a result, the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA) was designed to be truly accessible and useful to all its intended audiences, while still being comprehensive and scientifically accurate. At a time when meeting the challenge of climate change is increasingly recognized as an urgent national and global priority, the NCA is proving to be valuable to decision-makers, the media, and the public. In producing this latest NCA, a communication perspective was an important part of the process from the beginning, rather than an afterthought as has often been the case with scientific reports. Lessons learned from past projects and science communications research fed into developing the communication strategy for the Third NCA. A team of editors and graphic designers worked closely with the authors on language, graphics, and photographs throughout the development of the report, Highlights document, and other products. A web design team helped bring the report to life online. There were also innovations in outreach, including a network of organizations intended to extend the reach of the assessment by engaging stakeholders throughout the process. Professional slide set development and media training were part of the preparation for the report's release. The launch of the NCA in May 2014 saw widespread and ongoing media coverage, continued references to the NCA by decision-makers, and praise from many quarters for its excellence in making complex science clear and accessible. This NCA is a professionally crafted report that exemplifies best practices in 21st century communications.

  8. Integrated Climate Change Modelling and Policy Linkages for ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Modelling future scenarios for better planning To create effective strategies, ... change adaptation situations in sectors spanning from agriculture to urban planning. ... En partenariat avec l'Organization for Women in Science for the Developing ...

  9. Use of epidemiologic data in Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Persad, Amanda S.; Cooper, Glinda S.

    2008-01-01

    In human health risk assessment, information from epidemiologic studies is typically utilized in the hazard identification step of the risk assessment paradigm. However, in the assessment of many chemicals by the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS), epidemiologic data, both observational and experimental, have also been used in the derivation of toxicological risk estimates (i.e., reference doses [RfD], reference concentrations [RfC], oral cancer slope factors [CSF] and inhalation unit risks [IUR]). Of the 545 health assessments posted on the IRIS database as of June 2007, 44 assessments derived non-cancer or cancer risk estimates based on human data. RfD and RfC calculations were based on a spectrum of endpoints from changes in enzyme activity to specific neurological or dermal effects. There are 12 assessments with IURs based on human data, two assessments that extrapolated human inhalation data to derive CSFs and one that used human data to directly derive a CSF. Lung or respiratory cancer is the most common endpoint for cancer assessments based on human data. To date, only one chemical, benzene, has utilized human data for derivation of all three quantitative risk estimates (i.e., RfC, RfD, and dose-response modeling for cancer assessment). Through examples from the IRIS database, this paper will demonstrate how epidemiologic data have been used in IRIS assessments for both adding to the body of evidence in the hazard identification process and in the quantification of risk estimates in the dose-response component of the risk assessment paradigm

  10. Wildlife as biological indicators for assessing impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diamond, A.W.

    1990-01-01

    Estimates of the impacts of climate change on wildlife are necessarily constrained by knowledge of the effects of climate on wildlife. A review is presented of the better-known impacts of climate on wildlife, examining their utility as ecological indicators. The most obvious feature of any species is its geographic distribution, or range. Climate may affect distribution indirectly through effects on habitat, directly through physiological effects, or most probably, through both. Impacts can include changes in distribution of habitat, changes in distribution of species, and changes in migration routes. Direct effects of climate include timing and success of breeding, timing and success of migration, winter survival, and extreme events. Distribution changes are powerful integrators of ecosystem-level events, but poor indicators of particular changes. Changes in the timing of migration, and the phenology of breeding, are more directly determined by weather events and hence will be better indicators of changing climate. Detailed knowledge of effects of climate on timing and success of breeding is available for only a few species, and has not been carefully synthesized with a view to using such variables as climatic indicators. Temperature maxima and minima, frost-free and degree days, and estimates of precipitation on finer scales, both temporal and geographic, are needed to predict the effects of climate change on wildlife. 48 refs

  11. Assessment of Change in Psychoanalysis: Another Way of Using the Change After Psychotherapy Scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pires, António Pazo; Gonçalves, João; Sá, Vânia; Silva, Andrea; Sandell, Rolf

    2016-04-01

    A systematic method is presented whereby material from a full course of psychoanalytic treatment is analyzed to assess changes and identify patterns of change. Through an analysis of session notes, changes were assessed using the CHange After Psychotherapy scales (CHAP; Sandell 1987a), which evaluate changes in five rating variables (symptoms, adaptive capacity, insight, basic conflicts, and extratherapeutic factors). Change incidents were identified in nearly every session. Early in the analysis, relatively more change incidents related to insight were found than were found for the other types of change. By contrast, in the third year and part of the fourth year, relatively more change incidents related to basic conflicts and adaptive capacity were found. While changes related to symptoms occurred throughout the course of treatment, such changes were never more frequent than other types of change. A content analysis of the change incidents allowed a determination of when in the treatment the patient's main conflicts (identified clinically) were overcome. A crossing of quantitative data with clinical and qualitative data allowed a better understanding of the patterns of change. © 2016 by the American Psychoanalytic Association.

  12. Consideration of climate change on environmental impact assessment in Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro, E-mail: aenriquez@draba.org [Escuela de Doctorado, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, UNED, Draba Ingeniería y Consultoría Medioambiental, Cañada Nueva, 29, 28200 San Lorenzo de El Escorial (Spain); Martín-Aranda, Rosa M., E-mail: rmartin@ccia.uned.es [Departamento de Química Inorgánica y Química Técnica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, UNED, Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040, Madrid (Spain); Díaz-Sierra, Rubén, E-mail: sierra@dfmf.uned.es [Departamento de Física Matemática y de Fluidos, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, UNED, Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040, Madrid (Spain)

    2016-02-15

    Most of the projects subject to environmental impact assessment (EIA) are closely related to climate change, as they contribute to or are affected by it. The growing certainty about climate change and its impacts makes its consideration an essential part of the EIA process, as well as in strategic environmental assessment (SEA). This paper examines how climate change (CC) has been taken into account in EIA in Spain through the analysis of 1713 environmental records of decision (RODs) of projects submitted for EIA. In 2013 Spain approved one of the most advanced laws in terms of CC consideration in environmental assessment, although it had not yet accumulated extensive practice on the issue. This contrasts with the situation of countries like Canada or the USA, which have a significant body of experience without specific legal requirements. Only 14% of the RODs analysed included references to CC, and in more than half of the cases it was a mere citation. Thermal power plants, which are subject to specific GHG regulations, show the highest consideration, while transport infrastructures, which are important contributors to CC, show a very low consideration. Almost all the references are related to their contribution to CC, while consideration of the effects of CC is minimal. The increasingly common incorporation of CC into SEA, should not imply its exclusion from EIA, because both processes have different aims and uses. Including the obligation to consider CC in the EIA regulations is highly desirable, but probably not enough without other measures, such as practical guidance, training and motivational programmes for practitioners and evaluators. But even these actions cannot ensure effective and adequate assessments of CC. Probably more resources should be spent on creating greater awareness in all the agents involved in EIA. - Highlights: • We analyse how the climate change is considered in EIA in Spain. • Few projects seriously assess climate change.

  13. Consideration of climate change on environmental impact assessment in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro; Martín-Aranda, Rosa M.; Díaz-Sierra, Rubén

    2016-01-01

    Most of the projects subject to environmental impact assessment (EIA) are closely related to climate change, as they contribute to or are affected by it. The growing certainty about climate change and its impacts makes its consideration an essential part of the EIA process, as well as in strategic environmental assessment (SEA). This paper examines how climate change (CC) has been taken into account in EIA in Spain through the analysis of 1713 environmental records of decision (RODs) of projects submitted for EIA. In 2013 Spain approved one of the most advanced laws in terms of CC consideration in environmental assessment, although it had not yet accumulated extensive practice on the issue. This contrasts with the situation of countries like Canada or the USA, which have a significant body of experience without specific legal requirements. Only 14% of the R