WorldWideScience

Sample records for change increases risk

  1. Climate change and sugarcane expansion increase Hantavirus infection risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula Ribeiro Prist

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome (HCPS is a disease caused by Hantavirus, which is highly virulent for humans. High temperatures and conversion of native vegetation to agriculture, particularly sugarcane cultivation can alter abundance of rodent generalist species that serve as the principal reservoir host for HCPS, but our understanding of the compound effects of land use and climate on HCPS incidence remains limited, particularly in tropical regions. Here we rely on a Bayesian model to fill this research gap and to predict the effects of sugarcane expansion and expected changes in temperature on Hantavirus infection risk in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The sugarcane expansion scenario was based on historical data between 2000 and 2010 combined with an agro-environment zoning guideline for the sugar and ethanol industry. Future evolution of temperature anomalies was derived using 32 general circulation models from scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Representative greenhouse gases Concentration Pathways adopted by IPCC. Currently, the state of São Paulo has an average Hantavirus risk of 1.3%, with 6% of the 645 municipalities of the state being classified as high risk (HCPS risk ≥ 5%. Our results indicate that sugarcane expansion alone will increase average HCPS risk to 1.5%, placing 20% more people at HCPS risk. Temperature anomalies alone increase HCPS risk even more (1.6% for RCP4.5 and 1.7%, for RCP8.5, and place 31% and 34% more people at risk. Combined sugarcane and temperature increases led to the same predictions as scenarios that only included temperature. Our results demonstrate that climate change effects are likely to be more severe than those from sugarcane expansion. Forecasting disease is critical for the timely and efficient planning of operational control programs that can address the expected effects of sugarcane expansion and climate change on HCPS infection risk. The predicted spatial location of HCPS infection risks

  2. Climate change and sugarcane expansion increase Hantavirus infection risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prist, Paula Ribeiro; Uriarte, María; Fernandes, Katia; Metzger, Jean Paul

    2017-07-01

    Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome (HCPS) is a disease caused by Hantavirus, which is highly virulent for humans. High temperatures and conversion of native vegetation to agriculture, particularly sugarcane cultivation can alter abundance of rodent generalist species that serve as the principal reservoir host for HCPS, but our understanding of the compound effects of land use and climate on HCPS incidence remains limited, particularly in tropical regions. Here we rely on a Bayesian model to fill this research gap and to predict the effects of sugarcane expansion and expected changes in temperature on Hantavirus infection risk in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The sugarcane expansion scenario was based on historical data between 2000 and 2010 combined with an agro-environment zoning guideline for the sugar and ethanol industry. Future evolution of temperature anomalies was derived using 32 general circulation models from scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Representative greenhouse gases Concentration Pathways adopted by IPCC). Currently, the state of São Paulo has an average Hantavirus risk of 1.3%, with 6% of the 645 municipalities of the state being classified as high risk (HCPS risk ≥ 5%). Our results indicate that sugarcane expansion alone will increase average HCPS risk to 1.5%, placing 20% more people at HCPS risk. Temperature anomalies alone increase HCPS risk even more (1.6% for RCP4.5 and 1.7%, for RCP8.5), and place 31% and 34% more people at risk. Combined sugarcane and temperature increases led to the same predictions as scenarios that only included temperature. Our results demonstrate that climate change effects are likely to be more severe than those from sugarcane expansion. Forecasting disease is critical for the timely and efficient planning of operational control programs that can address the expected effects of sugarcane expansion and climate change on HCPS infection risk. The predicted spatial location of HCPS infection risks obtained here can be

  3. Changes in Adult BMI and Waist Circumference Are Associated with Increased Risk of Advanced Colorectal Neoplasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gathirua-Mwangi, Wambui G; Monahan, Patrick; Song, Yiqing; Zollinger, Terrell W; Champion, Victoria L; Stump, Timothy E; Imperiale, Thomas F

    2017-11-01

    Waist circumference (WC) is a stronger predictor of colon cancer (CRC) risk than body mass index (BMI). However, how well change in either WC or BMI predicts risk of advanced colorectal neoplasia (AN) is unclear. To determine the relationship between change in BMI and WC from early adulthood to later age and the risk of AN and which change measure is a stronger predictor. In 4500 adults, ages 50-80, with no previous neoplasia and undergoing screening colonoscopy, BMI and WC at age 21 and at time of screening were reported. Changes in BMI and WC were defined using universal risk cutoffs. Known CRC risk factors were controlled in the logistic models. Overall, model statistics showed WC change (omnibus test χ 2  = 10.15, 2 DF, p value = 0.006) was a statistically stronger predictor of AN than BMI change (omnibus test χ 2  = 5.66, 5 DF, p value = 0.34). Independent of BMI change, participants who increased WC (OR 1.44; 95% CI 1.05-1.96) or maintained a high-risk WC (OR 2.50; 95% CI 1.38-4.53) at age 21 and at screening had an increased risk of AN compared to those with a low-risk WC. Study participants who were obese at age 21 and at screening had an increased risk of AN (OR 1.87; 95% CI 1.08-3.23) compared to those who maintained a healthy BMI. Maintaining an overweight BMI or increasing BMI was not associated with AN. Maintaining an unhealthy BMI and WC throughout adult life may increase risk of AN. WC change may be a better predictor of AN than BMI change.

  4. Quantification of increased flood risk due to global climate change for urban river management planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morita, M

    2011-01-01

    Global climate change is expected to affect future rainfall patterns. These changes should be taken into account when assessing future flooding risks. This study presents a method for quantifying the increase in flood risk caused by global climate change for use in urban flood risk management. Flood risk in this context is defined as the product of flood damage potential and the probability of its occurrence. The study uses a geographic information system-based flood damage prediction model to calculate the flood damage caused by design storms with different return periods. Estimation of the monetary damages these storms produce and their return periods are precursors to flood risk calculations. The design storms are developed from modified intensity-duration-frequency relationships generated by simulations of global climate change scenarios (e.g. CGCM2A2). The risk assessment method is applied to the Kanda River basin in Tokyo, Japan. The assessment provides insights not only into the flood risk cost increase due to global warming, and the impact that increase may have on flood control infrastructure planning.

  5. Neural correlates of increased risk-taking propensity in sleep-deprived people along with a changing risk level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Yu; Wang, Lubin; Chen, Pinhong; Li, Yanyan; Han, Wei; Ge, Mingmei; Yang, Liu; Chen, Shanshan; Hu, Wendong; Wu, Xinhuai; Yang, Zheng

    2017-12-01

    Risky decision-making under a changing risk level is a complex process involving contextual information. The neural mechanism underlying how sleep deprivation (SD) influences risky decision-making behaviors with a changing risk level has yet to be elucidated. In this study, we used the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART) during functional magnetic resonance imaging to investigate the neural correlates of SD-induced changes on decision-making behaviors at different risk levels. Thirty-seven healthy male adults were recruited in this within-subjects, repeat-measure, counterbalanced study. These individuals were examined during a state of rested wakefulness state and after nearly 36 h of total SD. The results showed that SD increased the activation of risk modulation in the left inferior frontal gyrus and were positively correlated with risk-taking propensity after SD. Activation in the ventral striatum and thalamus during cash out was increased, and activation in the middle temporal gyrus after explosion (loss of money) was decreased in sleep-deprived subjects, providing additional evidence for greater risk-taking propensity after SD. These results extend our understanding of the neural mechanism underlying alteration of the risk-taking propensity in sleep-deprived individuals.

  6. Increasing Prevalence, Changes in Diagnostic Criteria, and Nutritional Risk Factors for Autism Spectrum Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neggers, Yasmin H.

    2014-01-01

    The frequency of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) diagnoses has been increasing for decades, but researchers cannot agree on whether the trend is a result of increased awareness, improved detection, expanding definition, or an actual increase in incidence or a combination of these factors. Though both genetic and multiple environmental risk factors have been studied extensively, many potentially modifiable risk factors including nutritional and immune function related risk factors such as vitamin D, folic acid, and metabolic syndrome have not received sufficient attention. Several recent studies have put forward hypotheses to explain the mechanism of association between both folic acid and vitamin D and autism. A continuous rise in the prevalence of autism in the USA has coincided with a significant enhancement of maternal folate status with FDA mandated folic acid fortification of certain foods starting in 1998. There is also a growing body of research that suggests that vitamin D status either in utero or early in life may be a risk for autism. In this communication, controversies regarding increase in estimate of prevalence, implications of changes in definition, and possible association between some modifiable nutritional risk factors such as folic acid and vitamin D and ASD will be discussed. PMID:24967269

  7. Adaptation of Forest Management Regimes in Southern Sweden to Increased Risks Associated with Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narayanan Subramanian

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Even though the growth rates of most tree species in Sweden is expected to increase in the near future as a result of climate change, increased risks of damage by storms and various pests and pathogens, notably root rot and bark beetles, may also occur. Thus, forest management practices such as changes to thinning regimes, reductions in rotation lengths, and switching to other species (native or exotic may represent adaptive management strategies to increase the resistance and resilience of Swedish forests to climate change. Clearly, thorough analyses examining the effects of anticipated climatic changes on damage levels, and the potentially relieving effects of possible management adaptations are needed before implementing such changes. In this study, damage caused by storms, root rot and bark beetles (single and in various combinations under selected climate and management scenarios were simulated in Norway spruce (Pice abies L. Karst stands. The results indicate that reductions in thinning intensity and rotation lengths could improve both volume production and profitability in southern Sweden. In addition, cultivation of rapidly growing species, such as hybrid larch (Larix × marschlinsii Coaz. and hybrid aspen (Populus tremula L. × P. tremuloides Michx., could be as profitable as Norway spruce cultivation, or even more profitable. However, slow-growing species, such as Silver birch (Betula pendula Roth, Downy birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh. and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L. indicated low economic output in terms of Land Expectation Value.

  8. Will climate change increase hybridization risk between potential plant invaders and their congeners in Europe?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klonner, Günther; Dullinger, Iwona; Wessely, Johannes; Bossdorf, Oliver; Carboni, Marta; Dawson, Wayne; Essl, Franz; Gattringer, Andreas; Haeuser, Emily; van Kleunen, Mark; Kreft, Holger; Moser, Dietmar; Pergl, Jan; Pyšek, Petr; Thuiller, Wilfried; Weigelt, Patrick; Winter, Marten; Dullinger, Stefan

    2017-08-01

    Interspecific hybridization can promote invasiveness of alien species. In many regions of the world, public and domestic gardens contain a huge pool of non-native plants. Climate change may relax constraints on their naturalization and hence facilitate hybridization with related species in the resident flora. Here, we evaluate this possible increase in hybridization risk by predicting changes in the overlap of climatically suitable ranges between a set of garden plants and their congeners in the resident flora. Europe. From the pool of alien garden plants, we selected those which (1) are not naturalized in Europe, but established outside their native range elsewhere in the world; (2) belong to a genus where interspecific hybridization has been previously reported; and (3) have congeners in the native and naturalized flora of Europe. For the resulting set of 34 alien ornamentals as well as for 173 of their European congeners, we fitted species distribution models and projected suitable ranges under the current climate and three future climate scenarios. Changes in range overlap between garden plants and congeners were then assessed by means of the true skill statistic. Projections suggest that under a warming climate, suitable ranges of garden plants will increase, on average, while those of their congeners will remain constant or shrink, at least under the more severe climate scenarios. The mean overlap in ranges among congeners of the two groups will decrease. Variation among genera is pronounced; however, and for some congeners, range overlap is predicted to increase significantly. Averaged across all modelled species, our results do not indicate that hybrids between potential future invaders and resident species will emerge more frequently in Europe when climate warms. These average trends do not preclude, however, that hybridization risk may considerably increase in particular genera.

  9. Changing Waters: Are Climate-Driven Changes in Discharge Regimes Increasing Eutrophication Risk in the Great Lakes Basin?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Meter, K. J.; Basu, N. B.

    2017-12-01

    In recent decades, the Great Lakes Basin (GLB) has experienced increasing precipitation, warming temperatures, and earlier spring thaws. During this same period, the region has been plagued by problems of water quality, with Lake Erie, in particular, experiencing a re-emergence of major eutrophication events, including an increased incidence of Harmful Algal Blooms. Although the prevailing paradigm is that eutrophication of inland waters is directly correlated with total phosphorus (P) inputs, recent decades have seen a decrease in the total P being delivered to the lakes from contributing watersheds. This apparent disconnect between inputs and outputs, i.e. decreasing P inputs but increased eutrophication, has led some to speculate that loading of total P is an insufficient metric of eutrophication risk and that increasing ratios of soluble reactive P (SRP) in relation to the total P (TP) entering inland water bodies may be a more important driver of algal growth. We hypothesize that changes in seasonal discharge patterns may be contributing to changes in the forms of P being delivered to the lakes, potentially due to changes in delivery pathways-for example surface pathways are more dominant in spring snowmelt, while shallow subsurface and tile pathways are more dominant during winter freeze-thaw events. To test this hypothesis, we have utilized data from more than 200 gaging stations across the GLB to explore the influences of climate and changing hydrologic patterns on biogeochemical processing and transport within the GLB. More specifically, we have asked the following questions: 1) How are discharge patterns changing across the GLB? 2) Are SRP:TP ratios increasing in subwatersheds of the GLB, and what are the spatial patterns in these changes? 3) Are climate-related changes in seasonality, e.g. earlier snowmelt, decreasing snowfall, longer growing seasons, linked to increased ratios of bioavailable P? Our results suggest that changes in precipitation as well

  10. Will climate change increase the risk for critical infrastructure failures in Europe due to extreme precipitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nissen, Katrin; Ulbrich, Uwe

    2016-04-01

    An event based detection algorithm for extreme precipitation is applied to a multi-model ensemble of regional climate model simulations. The algorithm determines extent, location, duration and severity of extreme precipitation events. We assume that precipitation in excess of the local present-day 10-year return value will potentially exceed the capacity of the drainage systems that protect critical infrastructure elements. This assumption is based on legislation for the design of drainage systems which is in place in many European countries. Thus, events exceeding the local 10-year return value are detected. In this study we distinguish between sub-daily events (3 hourly) with high precipitation intensities and long-duration events (1-3 days) with high precipitation amounts. The climate change simulations investigated here were conducted within the EURO-CORDEX framework and exhibit a horizontal resolution of approximately 12.5 km. The period between 1971-2100 forced with observed and scenario (RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5) greenhouse gas concentrations was analysed. Examined are changes in event frequency, event duration and size. The simulations show an increase in the number of extreme precipitation events for the future climate period over most of the area, which is strongest in Northern Europe. Strength and statistical significance of the signal increase with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This work has been conducted within the EU project RAIN (Risk Analysis of Infrastructure Networks in response to extreme weather).

  11. Increased wind risk from sting-jet windstorms with climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Alvarado, Oscar; Gray, Suzanne L.; Hart, Neil C. G.; Clark, Peter A.; Hodges, Kevin; Roberts, Malcolm J.

    2018-04-01

    Extra-tropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over western Europe. The strongest cyclones, often termed windstorms, have a large socio-economic impact on landfall due to strong surface winds and coastal storm surges. Climate model integrations have predicted a future increase in the frequency of, and potential damage from, European windstorms and yet these integrations cannot properly represent localised jets, such as sting jets, that may significantly enhance damage. Here we present the first prediction of how the climatology of sting-jet-containing cyclones will change in a future warmer climate, considering the North Atlantic and Europe. A proven sting-jet precursor diagnostic is applied to 13 year present-day and future (~2100) climate integrations from the Met Office Unified Model in its Global Atmosphere 3.0 configuration. The present-day climate results are consistent with previously-published results from a reanalysis dataset (with around 32% of cyclones exhibiting the sing-jet precursor), lending credibility to the analysis of the future-climate integration. The proportion of cyclones exhibiting the sting-jet precursor in the future-climate integration increases to 45%. Furthermore, while the proportion of explosively-deepening storms increases only slightly in the future climate, the proportion of those storms with the sting-jet precursor increases by 60%. The European resolved-wind risk associated with explosively-deepening storms containing a sting-jet precursor increases substantially in the future climate; in reality this wind risk is likely to be further enhanced by the release of localised moist instability, unresolved by typical climate models.

  12. Climate change increases the risk of herbicide-resistant weeds due to enhanced detoxification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matzrafi, Maor; Seiwert, Bettina; Reemtsma, Thorsten; Rubin, Baruch; Peleg, Zvi

    2016-12-01

    Global warming will increase the incidence of metabolism-based reduced herbicide efficacy on weeds and, therefore, the risk for evolution of non-target site herbicide resistance. Climate changes affect food security both directly and indirectly. Weeds are the major biotic factor limiting crop production worldwide, and herbicides are the most cost-effective way for weed management. Processes associated with climatic changes, such as elevated temperatures, can strongly affect weed control efficiency. Responses of several grass weed populations to herbicides that inhibit acetyl-CoA carboxylase (ACCase) were examined under different temperature regimes. We characterized the mechanism of temperature-dependent sensitivity and the kinetics of pinoxaden detoxification. The products of pinoxaden detoxification were quantified. Decreased sensitivity to ACCase inhibitors was observed under elevated temperatures. Pre-treatment with the cytochrome-P450 inhibitor malathion supports a non-target site metabolism-based mechanism of herbicide resistance. The first 48 h after herbicide application were crucial for pinoxaden detoxification. The levels of the inactive glucose-conjugated pinoxaden product (M5) were found significantly higher under high- than low-temperature regime. Under high temperature, a rapid elevation in the level of the intermediate metabolite (M4) was found only in pinoxaden-resistant plants. Our results highlight the quantitative nature of non-target-site resistance. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first experimental evidence for temperature-dependent herbicide sensitivity based on metabolic detoxification. These findings suggest an increased risk for the evolution of herbicide-resistant weeds under predicted climatic conditions.

  13. Increasing Megadrought Risk at the Intersection of Decadal to Centennial Variability and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overpeck, J. T.; Parsons, L. A.; Loope, G. R.; Ault, T.; Cole, J. E.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Buckle, N.; Stevenson, S.; Fasullo, J.

    2016-12-01

    Even more than the 1930's U.S. Dust Bowl Drought, the 20th century Sahel drought stands out as the most unprecedented drought of the instrumental era, in part because it extended over multiple decades. Paleoclimatic evidence makes it clear that this Sahel drought was nonetheless not really unprecedented - droughts many decades long have occurred in sub-Saharan Africa regularly over the last several thousand years, and these constitute what is now increasingly referred to as "megadrought." Paleoclimatic evidence also makes it clear that all drought-prone semi-arid and arid regions of the globe, including southwestern North America, southeastern Australia, and the Mediterranean/Middle Eastern region likely experienced multiple such multidecadal megadroughts in recent pre-Anthropocene Earth history. In other regions of the globe, including parts of South Asia and Amazonia, short but devastating droughts of the last 50-150 years, were also eclipsed in recent Earth history by much more serious megadrought, although these megadroughts were shorter than the multidecadal droughts of Africa or SW North America. In the past, megadroughts have occurred for reasons that are increasingly well understood in terms of ocean-atmosphere dynamics that led to unusually persistent precipitation deficits. Many of these same dynamics are well simulated in state-of-the-art Earth System Models, and yet comparisons between simulated and observed paleohydroclimatic variability suggests the models generally underestimate the risk of megadrought. Paleohydroclimatic records in some cases overestimate drought persistence, but there appear to be other issues at play that need to be better understood and simulated: positive land-atmosphere feedbacks, overly energetic interannual (i.e., ENSO) modes of variability, and insufficient internal multidecadal to centennial coupled climate system variability. Taking these issues and the impact of anthropogenic climate change into account means that the

  14. Injury Risk Is Increased by Changes in Perceived Recovery of Team Sport Players

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Does, Henrike Teunisje Dorothe; Brink, Michel Sanne; Otter, Ruby Tina Ardi; Visscher, Chris; Lemmink, Koen Alfons Plechelmus Marie

    Objective: The aim of this study is to investigate if changes in perceived stress and recovery over the course of a season are risk factors for acute and overuse injuries. Design: A prospective nonexperimental cohort design. Setting: Data were gathered at the SportsFieldLab Groningen and at the

  15. Sudden changes in environmental conditions do not increase invasion risk in grassland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruprecht, Eszter; Fenesi, Annamária; Nijs, Ivan

    2013-02-01

    After direct habitat transformation, biological invasions are considered to be the second most important threat to biodiversity. A better understanding of the factors affecting invasion success in new areas is crucial, and may provide insight into potential control actions. We hypothesized that invasion risk increases in habitats undergoing a sudden change in the disturbance regime or environmental conditions. For testing this assumption we initiated a seed sowing experiment while introducing two novel treatments, mowing twice and fertilizer application, in two grassland sites (one dryer and one mesic) in Romania. The seeds of two invasive species, Solidago canadensis and Rudbeckia laciniata, and two resident natives of similar seed sizes, life-forms and strategies were sowed in treated and control plots, and seed germination, seedling establishment and growth were followed during four months. Contrary to our expectations, there was no difference in the treatment effects on seed germination and seedling establishment between species, while there was on seedling vigour of the larger seeded species in the dryer grassland site, where the native had a higher performance especially in increased nutrient conditions. Indifferently from applied treatments, invasive species had greater cumulative germination in the mesic site, while natives were far more successful in seedling establishment in the drier site. At the same time, seed size was found to be a very important factor explaining germination and establishment success, with large seeded species outperforming small seeded species in any circumstances. Our results call the attention upon management interventions in mesic, productive grassland sites opening colonization windows for the recruitment of those invasive species of which ecological requirements correspond to local environmental conditions.

  16. Climate Change Is Increasing the Risk of the Reemergence of Malaria in Romania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanescu, Larisa; Bodale, Ilie; Florescu, Simin-Aysel; Roman, Constantin; Acatrinei, Dumitru; Miron, Liviu

    2016-01-01

    The climatic modifications lead to global warming; favouring the risk of the appearance and development of diseases are considered until now tropical diseases. Another important factor is the workers' immigration, the economic crisis favouring the passive transmission of new species of culicidae from different areas. Malaria is the disease with the widest distribution in the globe. Millions of people are infected every year in Africa, India, South-East Asia, Middle East, and Central and South America, with more than 41% of the global population under the risk of infestation with malaria. The increase of the number of local cases reported in 2007-2011 indicates that the conditions can favour the high local transmission in the affected areas. In the situation presented, the establishment of the level of risk concerning the reemergence of malaria in Romania becomes a priority.

  17. Climate Change Is Increasing the Risk of the Reemergence of Malaria in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larisa Ivanescu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The climatic modifications lead to global warming; favouring the risk of the appearance and development of diseases are considered until now tropical diseases. Another important factor is the workers’ immigration, the economic crisis favouring the passive transmission of new species of culicidae from different areas. Malaria is the disease with the widest distribution in the globe. Millions of people are infected every year in Africa, India, South-East Asia, Middle East, and Central and South America, with more than 41% of the global population under the risk of infestation with malaria. The increase of the number of local cases reported in 2007–2011 indicates that the conditions can favour the high local transmission in the affected areas. In the situation presented, the establishment of the level of risk concerning the reemergence of malaria in Romania becomes a priority.

  18. Additive impacts of experimental climate change increase risk to an ectotherm at the Arctic's edge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davenport, Jon M; Hossack, Blake R; Fishback, LeeAnn

    2017-06-01

    Globally, Arctic and Subarctic regions have experienced the greatest temperature increases during the last 30 years. These extreme changes have amplified threats to the freshwater ecosystems that dominate the landscape in many areas by altering water budgets. Several studies in temperate environments have examined the adaptive capacity of organisms to enhance our understanding of the potential repercussions of warming and associated accelerated drying for freshwater ecosystems. However, few experiments have examined these impacts in Arctic or Subarctic freshwater ecosystems, where the climate is changing most rapidly. To evaluate the capacity of a widespread ectotherm to anticipated environmental changes, we conducted a mesocosm experiment with wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) in the Canadian Subarctic. Three warming treatments were fully crossed with three drying treatments to simulate a range of predicted changes in wetland environments. We predicted wetland warming and drying would act synergistically, with water temperature partially compensating for some of the negative effects of accelerated drying. Across all drying regimes, a 1 °C increase in water temperature increased the odds of survival by 1.79, and tadpoles in 52-day and 64-day hydroperiod mesocosms were 4.1-4.3 times more likely to survive to metamorphosis than tadpoles in 45-day mesocosms. For individuals who survived to metamorphosis, there was only a weak negative effect of temperature on size. As expected, increased temperatures accelerated tadpole growth through day 30 of the experiment. Our results reveal that one of the dominant herbivores in Subarctic wetlands, wood frog tadpoles, are capable of increasing their developmental rates in response to increased temperature and accelerated drying, but only in an additive manner. The strong negative effects of drying on survival, combined with lack of compensation between these two environmental drivers, suggest changes in the aquatic environment that

  19. Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Cardoso Pereira, José Miguel; Hurtt, George; Asrar, Ghassem

    2017-12-01

    Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change - Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 - projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4-28 times more forest in 2080-2100 than during 1990-2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9-5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

  20. Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Le Page

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

  1. Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Pereira, José Miguel Cardoso; Hurtt, George; Asrar, Ghassem

    2017-01-01

    Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

  2. Global climate change increases risk of crop yield losses and food insecurity in the tropical Andes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tito, Richard; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L; Feeley, Kenneth J

    2018-02-01

    One of the greatest current challenges to human society is ensuring adequate food production and security for a rapidly growing population under changing climatic conditions. Climate change, and specifically rising temperatures, will alter the suitability of areas for specific crops and cultivation systems. In order to maintain yields, farmers may be forced to change cultivation practices, the timing of cultivation, or even the type of crops grown. Alternatively, farmers can change the location where crops are cultivated (e.g., to higher elevations) to track suitable climates (in which case the plants will have to grow in different soils), as cultivated plants will otherwise have to tolerate warmer temperatures and possibly face novel enemies. We simulated these two last possible scenarios (for temperature increases of 1.3°C and 2.6°C) in the Peruvian Andes through a field experiment in which several traditionally grown varieties of potato and maize were planted at different elevations (and thus temperatures) using either the local soil or soil translocated from higher elevations. Maize production declined by 21%-29% in response to new soil conditions. The production of maize and potatoes declined by >87% when plants were grown under warmer temperatures, mainly as a result of the greater incidence of novel pests. Crop quality and value also declined under simulated migration and warming scenarios. We estimated that local farmers may experience severe economic losses of up to 2,300 US$ ha -1  yr -1 . These findings reveal that climate change is a real and imminent threat to agriculture and that there is a pressing need to develop effective management strategies to reduce yield losses and prevent food insecurity. Importantly, such strategies should take into account the influences of non-climatic and/or biotic factors (e.g., novel pests) on plant development. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Environmental risk factors (outdoor air pollution and climatic changes) and increased trend of respiratory allergy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Amato, G; Liccardi, G; D'Amato, M

    2000-01-01

    A wealth of evidence suggests that allergic respiratory diseases such as rhinosinusitis and bronchial asthma have become more common worldwide in recent years and a great deal of etiological and pathogenic research has been carried out to evaluate the possible causes of this increasing trend. There is also some evidence that increased atmospheric concentrations of pollutants such as ozone (O3), nitric oxides (NOx), respirable particulate (PM10) and volatile organic chemicals (VOC5), which result from increased use of liquid petroleum gas or kerosene, may be linked to the increased prevalence of allergic diseases which develop more frequently in urban areas of developed countries. Since bronchial asthma is a syndrome which can be aggravated by inhaled compounds, the effects of air pollutants on health have been the focus of attention. In fact, various studies have demonstrated that inhalation of air pollutants such as O3, nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2), either individually or in combination, can enhance the airway response to inhaled allergens in atopic subjects, thus inducing asthma exacerbations. Moreover, experimental studies have shown that diesel exhaust particulate causes respiratory symptoms and is able also to modulate the immune response by increasing IgE synthesis in predisposed animals and humans. There is also some evidence that air pollutants can interact with aeroallergens in the atmosphere and/or on human airways, potentiating their effects. In fact, by inducing airway inflammation which increases epithelial permeability, some pollutants overcome the mucosal barrier and lead to allergen-induced responses. However, air pollution and climatic changes should also have an indirect effect on allergic response by influencing quantitatively and qualitatively the pollen production by allergenic plants.

  4. Increase in flood risk resulting from climate change in a developed urban watershed - the role of storm temporal patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hettiarachchi, Suresh; Wasko, Conrad; Sharma, Ashish

    2018-03-01

    The effects of climate change are causing more frequent extreme rainfall events and an increased risk of flooding in developed areas. Quantifying this increased risk is of critical importance for the protection of life and property as well as for infrastructure planning and design. The updated National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships and temporal patterns are widely used in hydrologic and hydraulic modeling for design and planning in the United States. Current literature shows that rising temperatures as a result of climate change will result in an intensification of rainfall. These impacts are not explicitly included in the NOAA temporal patterns, which can have consequences on the design and planning of adaptation and flood mitigation measures. In addition there is a lack of detailed hydraulic modeling when assessing climate change impacts on flooding. The study presented in this paper uses a comprehensive hydrologic and hydraulic model of a fully developed urban/suburban catchment to explore two primary questions related to climate change impacts on flood risk. (1) How do climate change effects on storm temporal patterns and rainfall volumes impact flooding in a developed complex watershed? (2) Is the storm temporal pattern as critical as the total volume of rainfall when evaluating urban flood risk? We use the NOAA Atlas 14 temporal patterns, along with the expected increase in temperature for the RCP8.5 scenario for 2081-2100, to project temporal patterns and rainfall volumes to reflect future climatic change. The model results show that different rainfall patterns cause variability in flood depths during a storm event. The changes in the projected temporal patterns alone increase the risk of flood magnitude up to 35 %, with the cumulative impacts of temperature rise on temporal patterns and the storm volume increasing flood risk from 10 to 170 %. The results also show that regional

  5. Near-linear cost increase to reduce climate-change risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaeffer, M.; Kram, T.; Meinshausen, M.; Vuuren, van D.P.; Hare, W.L.

    2008-01-01

    One approach in climate-change policy is to set normative long-term targets first and then infer the implied emissions pathways. An important example of a normative target is to limit the global-mean temperature change to a certain maximum. In general, reported cost estimates for limiting global

  6. Are minor echocardiographic changes associated with an increased risk of acute rheumatic fever or progression to rheumatic heart disease?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rémond, Marc; Atkinson, David; White, Andrew; Brown, Alex; Carapetis, Jonathan; Remenyi, Bo; Roberts, Kathryn; Maguire, Graeme

    2015-11-01

    The World Heart Federation criteria for the echocardiographic diagnosis of rheumatic heart disease (RHD) include a category "Borderline" RHD which may represent the earliest evidence of RHD. We aimed to determine the significance of minor heart valve abnormalities, including Borderline RHD, in predicting the future risk of acute rheumatic fever (ARF) or RHD. A prospective cohort study of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children aged 8 to 18 years was conducted. Cases comprised children with Borderline RHD or other minor non-specific valvular abnormalities (NSVAs) detected on prior echocardiography. Controls were children with a prior normal echocardiogram. Participants underwent a follow-up echocardiogram 2.5 to 5 years later to assess for progression of valvular changes and development of Definite RHD. Interval diagnoses of ARF were ascertained. There were 442 participants. Cases with Borderline RHD were at significantly greater risk of ARF (incidence rate ratio 8.8, 95% CI 1.4-53.8) and any echocardiographic progression of valve lesions (relative risk 8.19, 95% CI 2.43-27.53) than their Matched Controls. Cases with Borderline RHD were at increased risk of progression to Definite RHD (1 in 6 progressed) as were Cases with NSVAs (1 in 10 progressed). Children with Borderline RHD had an increased risk of ARF, progression of valvular lesions, and development of Definite RHD. These findings provide support for considering secondary antibiotic prophylaxis or ongoing surveillance echocardiography in high-risk children with Borderline RHD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods as a consequence of climate change in the Himalayan region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Somana Riaz

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The greater Himalayan Mountains host the largest snow covered area outside the polar regions and serves as the source for some of the major fluvial systems of the world. The region acts as the lifeline for approximately 10% of the world’s population. The terrain is geologically active, highly susceptible to climate change processes and plays a significant role in global hydro-meteorological cycles and biodiversity. With the increasing impacts of climate change to the glaciers and ice caps during the past few decades, people living in the Himalayas have become vulnerable to a higher risk of floods, avalanches and glacial lake outburst floods(GLOFs. This study reviewed the work carried out by earlier researchers to understand the history and science of GLOFs and their potential risk to the communities in the Himalayanbelt, particularly in Pakistan.

  8. Will climate change increase hybridization risk between potential plant invaders and their congeners in Europe?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Klonner, G.; Dullinger, I.; Wessely, J.; Bossdorf, O.; Carboni, M.; Dawson, W.; Essl, F.; Gattringer, A.; Haeuser, E.; van Kleunen, M.; Kreft, H.; Moser, D.; Pergl, Jan; Pyšek, Petr; Thuiller, W.; Weigelt, P.; Winter, M.; Dullinger, S.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 23, č. 8 (2017), s. 934-943 ISSN 1366-9516 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP504/11/1028; GA ČR GB14-36079G Grant - others:AV ČR(CZ) AP1002 Program:Akademická prémie - Praemium Academiae Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : climate change * hybridization * invasions Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Biodiversity conservation Impact factor: 4.391, year: 2016

  9. Will climate change increase the risk of plant invasions into mountains?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petitpierre, Blaise; McDougall, Keith; Seipel, Tim; Broennimann, Olivier; Guisan, Antoine; Kueffer, Christoph

    2016-03-01

    Mountain ecosystems have been less adversely affected by invasions of non-native plants than most other ecosystems, partially because most invasive plants in the lowlands are limited by climate and cannot grow under harsher high-elevation conditions. However, with ongoing climate change, invasive species may rapidly move upwards and threaten mid-, and then high-elevation mountain ecosystems. We evaluated this threat by modeling the current and future habitat suitability for 48 invasive plant species in Switzerland and New South Wales, Australia. Both regions had contrasting climate interactions with elevation, resulting in possible different responses of species distributions to climate change. Using a species distribution modeling approach that combines data from two spatial scales, we built high-resolution species distribution models (≤ 250 m) that account for the global climatic niche of species and also finer variables depicting local climate and disturbances. We found that different environmental drivers limit the elevation range of invasive species in each of the two regions, leading to region-specific species responses to climate change. The optimal suitability for plant invaders is predicted to markedly shift from the lowland to the montane or subalpine zone in Switzerland, whereas the upward shift is far less pronounced in New South Wales where montane and subalpine elevations are already suitable. The results suggest that species most likely to invade high elevations in Switzerland will be cold-tolerant, whereas species with an affinity to moist soils are most likely to invade higher elevations in Australia. Other plant traits were only marginally associated with elevation limits. These results demonstrate that a more systematic consideration of future distributions of invasive species is required in conservation plans of not yet invaded mountainous ecosystems.

  10. Climate change will increase the naturalization risk from garden plants in Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dullinger, Y.; Wessely, J.; Bossdorf, O.; Dawson, W.; Essl, F.; Gattringer, A.; Klonner, G.; Kreft, H.; Kuttner, M.; Moser, D.; Pergl, Jan; Pyšek, Petr; Thuiller, W.; van Kleunen, M.; Weigelt, P.; Winter, M.; Dullinger, S.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 26, č. 1 (2017), s. 43-53 ISSN 1466-822X R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP504/11/1028; GA ČR GB14-36079G Grant - others:AV ČR(CZ) AP1002 Program:Akademická prémie - Praemium Academiae Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : future invasions * ornamental plants * climate change Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Ecology Impact factor: 6.045, year: 2016

  11. Association of mammographic image feature change and an increasing risk trend of developing breast cancer: an assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Maxine; Leader, Joseph K.; Liu, Hong; Zheng, Bin

    2015-03-01

    We recently investigated a new mammographic image feature based risk factor to predict near-term breast cancer risk after a woman has a negative mammographic screening. We hypothesized that unlike the conventional epidemiology-based long-term (or lifetime) risk factors, the mammographic image feature based risk factor value will increase as the time lag between the negative and positive mammography screening decreases. The purpose of this study is to test this hypothesis. From a large and diverse full-field digital mammography (FFDM) image database with 1278 cases, we collected all available sequential FFDM examinations for each case including the "current" and 1 to 3 most recently "prior" examinations. All "prior" examinations were interpreted negative, and "current" ones were either malignant or recalled negative/benign. We computed 92 global mammographic texture and density based features, and included three clinical risk factors (woman's age, family history and subjective breast density BIRADS ratings). On this initial feature set, we applied a fast and accurate Sequential Forward Floating Selection (SFFS) feature selection algorithm to reduce feature dimensionality. The features computed on both mammographic views were individually/ separately trained using two artificial neural network (ANN) classifiers. The classification scores of the two ANNs were then merged with a sequential ANN. The results show that the maximum adjusted odds ratios were 5.59, 7.98, and 15.77 for using the 3rd, 2nd, and 1st "prior" FFDM examinations, respectively, which demonstrates a higher association of mammographic image feature change and an increasing risk trend of developing breast cancer in the near-term after a negative screening.

  12. Alteration of host-pathogen interactions in the wake of climate change - Increasing risk for shellfish associated infections?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernroth, Bodil E; Baden, Susanne P

    2018-02-01

    The potential for climate-related spread of infectious diseases through marine systems has been highlighted in several reports. With this review we want to draw attention to less recognized mechanisms behind vector-borne transmission pathways to humans. We have focused on how the immune systems of edible marine shellfish, the blue mussels and Norway lobsters, are affected by climate related environmental stressors. Future ocean acidification (OA) and warming due to climate change constitute a gradually increasing persistent stress with negative trade-off for many organisms. In addition, the stress of recurrent hypoxia, inducing high levels of bioavailable manganese (Mn) is likely to increase in line with climate change. We summarized that OA, hypoxia and elevated levels of Mn did have an overall negative effect on immunity, in some cases also with synergistic effects. On the other hand, moderate increase in temperature seems to have a stimulating effect on antimicrobial activity and may in a future warming scenario counteract the negative effects. However, rising sea surface temperature and climate events causing high land run-off promote the abundance of naturally occurring pathogenic Vibrio and will in addition, bring enteric pathogens which are circulating in society into coastal waters. Moreover, the observed impairments of the immune defense enhance the persistence and occurrence of pathogens in shellfish. This may increase the risk for direct transmission of pathogens to consumers. It is thus essential that in the wake of climate change, sanitary control of coastal waters and seafood must recognize and adapt to the expected alteration of host-pathogen interactions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Changing the paradigm of organ utilization from PHS increased-risk donors: an opportunity whose time has come?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sibulesky, Lena; Javed, Imran; Reyes, Jorge D; Limaye, Ajit P

    2015-09-01

    Approximately 8-11% of all organ donors are classified by Public Health Service (PHS) as increased-risk. The proportion of PHS increased-risk donors is on the rise. At the University of Washington Medical Center, in 2014, the proportion of transplants from PHS increased-risk donors was 28% of liver transplants and 23% of kidney transplants. Nationally, transplant providers have been reluctant to use organs from PHS increased-risk donors because of concern for transmission of HIV, HCV, or HBV. There is also patient apprehension when these organs are being offered, and thus the discard rate of these otherwise good quality organs is high. Because of the organ shortage, preventing underutilization of such organs is essential. We provide data and considerations that should be used to guide the use of organs from PHS increased-risk donors. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Capacity to adapt to environmental change: evidence from a network of organizations concerned with increasing wildfire risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Paige. Fischer

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Because wildfire size and frequency are expected to increase in many forested areas in the United States, organizations involved in forest and wildfire management could arguably benefit from working together and sharing information to develop strategies for how to adapt to this increasing risk. Social capital theory suggests that actors in cohesive networks are positioned to build trust and mutual understanding of problems and act collectively to address these problems, and that actors engaged with diverse partners are positioned to access new information and resources that are important for innovation and complex problem solving. We investigated the patterns of interaction within a network of organizations involved in forest and wildfire management in Oregon, USA, for evidence of structural conditions that create opportunities for collective action and learning. We used descriptive statistical analysis of social network data gathered through interviews to characterize the structure of the network and exponential random graph modeling to identify key factors in the formation of network ties. We interpreted our findings through the lens of social capital theory to identify implications for the network's capacity to engage in collective action and complex problem-solving about how to adapt to environmental change. We found that tendencies to associate with others with similar management goals, geographic emphases, and attitudes toward wildfire were strong mechanisms shaping network structure, potentially constraining interactions among organizations with diverse information and resources and limiting opportunities for learning and complex problem-solving needed for adaptation. In particular, we found that organizations with fire protection and forest restoration goals comprised distinct networks despite sharing concern about the problem of increasing wildfire risk.

  15. Co-exposure to ultrafine particulate matter and ozone causes electrocardiogram changes indicative of increased arrhythmia risk in mice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Numerous studies have shown a relationship between acute air pollution exposure and increased risk for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Due to the inherent complexity of air pollution, recent studies have focused on co-exposures to better understand potential interactions....

  16. Variation among cardiovascular risk calculators in relative risk increases with identical risk factor increases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, G Michael; Nouri, Faeze; Korownyk, Christina; Kolber, Michael R; Vandermeer, Ben; McCormack, James

    2015-09-07

    Risk estimates for the same patient can vary substantially among cardiovascular risk calculators and the reasons are not fully explained. We compared the relative risk increases for consistent risk factors changes across different cardiovascular risk calculators. Five clinicians independently selected 16 calculators providing absolute risk estimations. Hypothetical patients were generated using a combination of seven risk factors [age, gender, smoking, blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein (HDL), total cholesterol and diabetes] dichotomized to high and low risk, generating 2(7) patients (128 total). Relative risk increases due to specific risk factors were determined and compared. The 16 selected calculators were from six countries, used 5- and 10-year predictions, and estimated CVD or coronary heart disease risk. Across the different calculators for non-diabetic patients, changing age from 50 to 70 produced average relative risk increases from 82 to 395%, gender (female to male) 35-225%, smoking status 31-118%, systolic blood pressure (120-160 mmHg) 16-124%, total cholesterol (4-7 mmol/L) 51-302% and HDL (1.3-0.8 mmol/L) 27-133%. Similar results were found among diabetic patients. Some calculators appeared to have consistently higher relative risk increases over multiple risk factors. Cardiovascular risk calculators weigh the same risk factors differently. For each risk factor, the relative risk increase from the calculator with the highest increase was generally three to eight times greater than the relative risk increase from the calculator with lowest increase. This likely contributes to some of the inconsistency in risk calculator estimation. It also limits the use of risk calculators in estimating the benefits of therapy.

  17. Capacity to adapt to environmental change: evidence from a network of organizations concerned with increasing wildfire risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    A. Paige Fischer; Lorien Jasny

    2017-01-01

    Because wildfire size and frequency are expected to increase in many forested areas in the United States, organizations involved in forest and wildfire management could arguably benefit from working together and sharing information to develop strategies for how to adapt to this increasing risk. Social capital theory suggests that actors in cohesive networks are...

  18. Increasing potential risk of a global aquatic invader in Europe in contrast to other continents under future climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xuan; Guo, Zhongwei; Ke, Zunwei; Wang, Supen; Li, Yiming

    2011-03-30

    Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop wide-ranging and effective control measures according to predicted

  19. Increasing Potential Risk of a Global Aquatic Invader in Europe in Contrast to Other Continents under Future Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Xuan; Guo, Zhongwei; Ke, Zunwei; Wang, Supen; Li, Yiming

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distribution...

  20. Increased container-breeding mosquito risk owing to drought-induced changes in water harvesting and storage in Brisbane, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trewin, Brendan J; Kay, Brian H; Darbro, Jonathan M; Hurst, Tim P

    2013-12-01

    Extended drought conditions in south-east Queensland during the early 2000s have resulted in a culture of water harvesting and legislated water restrictions. Aedes notoscriptus is a container-breeding mosquito vector of Ross River and Barmah Forest viruses. From 2008-2009, the larval habitats and seasonal abundance of domestic container-breeding mosquitoes were recorded from three suburbs of Brisbane. A knowledge, attitudes and practice questionnaire was administered to householders. A low-cost, desktop methodology was used to predict the proportion of shaded premises compared with front-of-property estimates. We highlight changes in the frequency of container categories for A. notoscriptus as a response to human behavioural changes to drought. Garden accoutrements, discarded household items and water storage containers accounted for 66.2% (525/793) of positive containers and 77.5% (73 441/94 731) of all immature mosquitoes. Of all household premises surveyed, 52.6% (550/1046) contained rainwater tanks and 29.4% (308/1046) harvested water in other containers, contrasting with a previous 1995 survey where neither category was observed. Both Premise Condition Index and shade directly correlated with positive premises. Human response to drought has resulted in new habitats for domestic container-breeding mosquitoes. This recent trend of prolific water storage is similar to earlier years (1904-1943) in Brisbane when Aedes aegypti was present and dengue epidemics occurred.

  1. Internet-delivered behavior change program increases physical activity and improves cardiometabolic disease risk factors in sedentary adults: results of a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Lucas J; Bartee, R Todd; Dorozynski, Chris; Broomfield, James F; Smith, Marci L; Smith, Derek T

    2008-05-01

    To determine whether the Active Living Every Day (ALED-I) internet-delivered theory-based physical activity (PA) behavior change program increases PA and improves cardiometabolic disease risk factors (CDRF) in sedentary overweight adults. The study was a randomized control trial that took place in southern Wyoming and northern Colorado from 2005-2007. Thirty-two men and women (21-65 years) were randomized to a 16-week ALED-I intervention (n=14; age=41.4+/-3.7 years; BMI=32.3+/-1.3 kg/m(2)) or a delayed intent-to-treat control condition (n=18; age=49.4+/-1.7 years; BMI=30.6+/-0.8 kg/m(2)). At baseline and post-intervention, PA by pedometer and CDRFs were measured. Both groups had similar baseline PA levels. ALED-I increased PA by an average of 1384 steps/day (p=0.03) compared to 816 steps/day (p=0.14) for the control group. Waist circumference (100.6+/-2.4 vs. 96.6+/-2.7 cm) and Coronary Risk Ratio (5.1+/-0.3 vs. 4.7+/-0.3) decreased in the ALED-I group and did not change in the control group (99.2+/-2.2 vs.99.8+/-2.1 cm) and (3.7+/-0.1 vs. 3.7+/-0.1), respectively. The internet-delivered ALED program increased PA and improved some CDRFs in sedentary overweight/obese adults. To our knowledge, this is the first efficacy trial of the internet-delivered ALED program. Further studies are warranted due to the reach and cost-effectiveness of internet-delivered PA programs.

  2. Managing Climate Change Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB1 Aspendale, Victoria 3195 (Australia)

    2003-07-01

    Issues of uncertainty, scale and delay between action and response mean that 'dangerous' climate change is best managed within a risk assessment framework that evolves as new information is gathered. Risk can be broadly defined as the combination of likelihood and consequence; the latter measured as vulnerability to greenhouse-induced climate change. The most robust way to assess climate change damages in a probabilistic framework is as the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance. Because vulnerability is dominated by local factors, global vulnerability is the aggregation of many local impacts being forced beyond their coping ranges. Several case studies, generic sea level rise and temperature, coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and water supply in an Australian catchment, are used to show how local risk assessments can be assessed then expressed as a function of global warming. Impacts treated thus can be aggregated to assess global risks consistent with Article 2 of the UNFCCC. A 'proof of concept' example is then used to show how the stabilisation of greenhouse gases can constrain the likelihood of exceeding critical thresholds at both the both local and global scale. This analysis suggests that even if the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of avoiding climate damages can be estimated, the likelihood of being able to meet a cost-benefit target is limited by both physical and socio-economic uncertainties. In terms of managing climate change risks, adaptation will be most effective at reducing vulnerability likely to occur at low levels of warming. Successive efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases will reduce the likelihood of reaching levels of global warming from the top down, with the highest potential temperatures being avoided first, irrespective of contributing scientific uncertainties. This implies that the first cuts in emissions will always produce the largest economic benefits in terms of avoided

  3. Motivation to reduce alcohol consumption and subsequent attempts at reduction and changes in consumption in increasing and higher-risk drinkers in England: a prospective population survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vocht, Frank; Brown, Jamie; Beard, Emma; West, Robert; Michie, Susan; Campbell, Rona; Hickman, Matthew

    2018-05-01

    To assess how far motivation to reduce alcohol consumption in increasing and higher-risk drinkers in England predicts self-reported attempts to reduce alcohol consumption and changes in alcohol intake during the following 6 months. This study used self-reported data from 2928 higher-risk drinkers in the Alcohol Toolkit Study (ATS): a series of monthly cross-sectional household surveys of adults aged 16+ years of age in England. Alcohol consumption was measured in an initial survey and in a 6-month telephone follow-up interview using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT)-C questionnaire. Motivation was measured in the initial survey using the Motivation to Reduce Alcohol Consumption (MRAC) scale. Attempts to reduce alcohol consumption during the past 6 months were recorded at follow-up. Data were analysed using repeated-measures difference-in-differences and logistic regression models. Participants with higher initial motivation to reduce alcohol consumption were more likely to report that they had made an attempt to reduce consumption at follow-up [adjusted odds ratio (OR adj ) = 2.39, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.75-3.29]. There was an overall reduction in alcohol consumption between initial survey and follow-up (OR adj  = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.65-0.79), but there was insufficient evidence of an additional effect of motivation to reduce consumption on subsequent changes in alcohol consumption, with the difference-in-differences effect instead suggesting an average increase (OR adj  = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.00-1.88). Increasing and higher-risk drinkers in England who report greater motivation to reduce their consumption are more likely to report making an attempt to reduce during the next 6 months, but this may not be associated with a reduction in alcohol consumption. © 2018 The Authors. Addiction published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society for the Study of Addiction.

  4. Climate change and malaria risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martens, W.J.M. [University of Limburg, Department of Mathematics, Maastricht (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malaria parasite and its vector are sensitive to climate influences especially temperature and precipitation. In this paper the effects of an increase in temperature on the epidemic potential of malaria are explored. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk suggests a widespread increase of risk due to an expansion of areas suitable for malaria transmission. The health impact will be most pronounced in populations living in the less economically-developed temperate areas in which endemicity is low or absent. 1 fig., 2 tabs., 9 refs.

  5. Has risk associated with smoking increased?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prescott, E; Osler, M; Andersen, P K

    1997-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Two recent much cited publications have raised the concern that risk associated with cigarette smoking has so far been underestimated. In this study we wish to determine whether excess all-cause mortality associated with smoking has increased during the last 20-30 years in a study...... population representative of the general Danish population and whether any such changes relate to changes in smoking behaviour. METHODS: Pooled data from three prospective population studies conducted in Copenhagen with detailed information on smoking habits. A total of 31,194 subjects, 17,669 males and 13....... RESULTS: Male smokers' exposure did not change during the study period whereas female smokers' exposure to tobacco increased in terms of age at smoking onset, quantity smoked and depth of inhalation. During follow-up 5744 males and 2900 females died. In males, death rate ratios (comparing continuous...

  6. Acute thermal tolerance of tropical estuarine fish occupying a man-made tidal lake, and increased exposure risk with climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waltham, Nathan J.; Sheaves, Marcus

    2017-09-01

    Understanding acute hyperthermic exposure risk to animals, including fish in tropical estuaries, is increasingly necessary under future climate change. To examine this hypothesis, fish (upper water column species - glassfish, Ambassis vachellii; river mullet, Chelon subviridis; diamond scale mullet, Ellochelon vaigiensis; and ponyfish, Leiognathus equulus; and lower water bottom dwelling species - whiting Sillago analis) were caught in an artificial tidal lake in tropical north Queensland (Australia), and transported to a laboratory tank to acclimate (3wks). After acclimation, fish (between 10 and 17 individuals each time) were transferred to a temperature ramping experimental tank, where a thermoline increased (2.5 °C/hr; which is the average summer water temperature increasing rate measured in the urban lakes) tank water temperature to establish threshold points where each fish species lost equilibrium (defined here as Acute Effect Temperature; AET). The coolest AET among all species was 33.1 °C (S. analis), while the highest was 39.9 °C (A. vachellii). High frequency loggers were deployed (November and March representing Austral summer) in the same urban lake where fish were sourced, to measure continuous (20min) surface (0.15 m) and bottom (0.1 m) temperature to derive thermal frequency curves to examine how often lake temperatures exceed AET thresholds. For most fish species examined, water temperature that could be lethal were exceeded at the surface, but rarely, if ever, at the bottom waters suggesting deep, cooler, water provides thermal refugia for fish. An energy-balance model was used to estimate daily mean lake water temperature with good accuracy (±1 °C; R2 = 0.91, modelled vs lake measured temperature). The model was used to predict climate change effects on lake water temperature, and the exceedance of thermal threshold change. A 2.3 °C climate warming (based on 2100 local climate prediction) raised lake water temperature by 1.3 °C. However

  7. Familial skin cancer syndromes: Increased melanoma risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ransohoff, Katherine J; Jaju, Prajakta D; Jaju, Prajaka D; Tang, Jean Y; Carbone, Michele; Leachman, Sancy; Sarin, Kavita Y

    2016-03-01

    Phenotypic traits, such as red hair and freckling, increase melanoma risk by 2- to 3-fold. In addition, approximately 10% of melanomas are caused by inherited germline mutations that increase melanoma risk from 4- to >1000-fold. This review highlights the key genes responsible for inherited melanoma, with an emphasis on when a patient should undergo genetic testing. Many genetic syndromes associated with increased melanoma risk are also associated with an increased risk of other cancers. Identification of these high-risk patients is essential for preventive behavior reinforcement, genetic counseling, and ensuring other required cancer screenings. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Screening women at increased risk with MRI.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boetes, C.; Veltman, J.

    2005-01-01

    Breast cancer is the most common cancer affecting women. In the screening of women for breast cancer, mammography is the most used imaging modality. Women with an increased risk for getting breast cancer can develop a malignancy at a relatively young age compared to other women. The increased risk

  9. Wine: the increasing risk of a highly vulnerable industry globally to natural disasters and climate change (NH Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, James E.; Daniell, Trevor M.; Daniell, Katherine A.; Wenzel, Friedemann; Schäfer, Andreas M.; Kunz, Michael; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Khazai, Bijan; Girard, Trevor; Burford, Robert

    2017-04-01

    Globally, well over 10 trillion in economic losses and over 10 million deaths can be attributed directly to natural disaster events from floods, earthquakes, storms, volcanoes and climatic effects historically (CATDAT - Daniell et al., 2016). When looking at the most vulnerable industries to natural disasters for each dollar invested the wine industry rates very highly, thus showing the risky and vulnerable nature of the wine business. Some effects of climate change will be shifting climates so that new grape growing areas are discovered and some traditional locations will require a change of grape variety to be planted, or will unsatisfactory for quality grape production. As new grape types are developed, some other grape types will become less viable leading to a global shift relative to the current state of the industry. The wine industry has been shown to have major losses via sudden shocks such as earthquakes in Chile (2010), Christchurch (2011) and Napa (2014) and hail through Burgundy (2012-2014). Wineries are often prone to other major disasters such as flood, storms, frost, fire or disease causing structural failure of assets, and significant production losses. Natural and man-made disasters play a key role in wine industry losses, and the variability of seasonal shifts and sudden natural shocks can often play a major role in the lifecycle and indeed the lifetime of wineries. Lessons learnt from winery disasters and climate impacts in Australia, Chile, New Zealand and USA are used as well as a comparison with those in Europe and other vulnerable centralised industries, such as cheese in Italy (2012 earthquake). For various natural disasters the structural engineering issues associated with wineries are examined with respect to infrastructure such as elevated steel tanks, as well as the importance of planning for earthquakes. The potential risk mitigation solutions are often simple to implement and are cost-effective in reducing significantly the risk

  10. Dietary changes in migrant adolescents with increasing length of stay in Australia and associated risk of wheeze--a retrospective, cross sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Lisa G; Lagleva, Marivic; Shah, Smita; Berthon, Bronwyn S; Galbraith, Sally; Henry, Richard; Kepreotes, Helen; Gibson, Peter G

    2015-08-26

    Recent studies have reported that asthma prevalence increases on migration to Australia. We hypothesised that changes in dietary intake contribute to this phenomenon. The aim of this study was to assess dietary intake in relation to migration status, length of stay in Australia and the association with self-reported wheeze. Students (n = 144) in a multicultural high school in Western Sydney completed the asthma symptoms ISAAC video questionnaire (AVQ3.0), spirometry and allergy skin prick tests. A dietitian administered a'Food Frequency' and 'Food Habits' questionnaire and a dietary history interview. Students who spoke a language other than English, consumed a traditional or mixed dietary pattern, with lower consumption of saturated fat, compared to students who spoke English only. Saturated fat intake increased and fibre intake decreased with length of time in Australia. Intake of foods high in saturated or trans fatty acids were positively associated with length of stay in Australia. No associations between nutrient intake or whole food intake and self-reported wheeze were observed. As time progressed, dietary intake of immigrant children changed. While this was not associated with the development of wheeze in the students in this cohort, these changes are likely to have negative health consequences.

  11. Climate change. Accelerating extinction risk from climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urban, Mark C

    2015-05-01

    Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change-induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  12. The increased risk of predation enhances cooperation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krams, Indrikis; Bērziņš, Arnis; Krama, Tatjana; Wheatcroft, David; Igaune, Kristīne; Rantala, Markus J.

    2010-01-01

    Theory predicts that animals in adverse conditions can decrease individual risks and increase long-term benefits by cooperating with neighbours. However, some empirical studies suggest that animals often focus on short-term benefits, which can reduce the likelihood that they will cooperate with others. In this experimental study, we tested between these two alternatives by evaluating whether increased predation risk (as a correlate of environmental adversity) enhances or diminishes the occurrence of cooperation in mobbing, a common anti-predator behaviour, among breeding pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca. We tested whether birds would join their mobbing neighbours more often and harass a stuffed predator placed near their neighbours' nests more intensely in areas with a higher perceived risk of predation. Our results show that birds attended mobs initiated by their neighbours more often, approached the stuffed predator significantly more closely, and mobbed it at a higher intensity in areas where the perceived risk of predation was experimentally increased. In such high-risk areas, birds also were more often involved in between-pair cooperation. This study demonstrates the positive impact of predation risk on cooperation in breeding songbirds, which might help in explaining the emergence and evolution of cooperation. PMID:19846454

  13. Has risk associated with smoking increased?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prescott, E; Osler, M; Andersen, P K

    1997-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Two recent much cited publications have raised the concern that risk associated with cigarette smoking has so far been underestimated. In this study we wish to determine whether excess all-cause mortality associated with smoking has increased during the last 20-30 years in a study......,525 females, initially examined between 1964 and 1992 with examinations repeated at intervals from 1-10 years, were followed until 1995 for all-cause mortality. Relative mortality risk in smokers versus never-smokers was calculated within periods of five calendar years and compared throughout the study period...

  14. Increased risk for depression after breast cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Suppli, Nis P; Johansen, Christoffer; Christensen, Jane

    2014-01-01

    PURPOSE: To investigate the risk for first depression, assessed as incident hospital contacts for depression and incident use of antidepressants, among women with breast cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Danish national registries were used to identify 1,997,669 women with no diagnosis of cancer...... or a major psychiatric disorder. This cohort was followed from 1998 to 2011 for a diagnosis of breast cancer and for the two outcomes, hospital contact for depression and redeemed prescriptions for antidepressants. Rate ratios for incident hospital contacts for depression and incident use of antidepressants...... associated with use of antidepressants. CONCLUSION: Women with breast cancer are at long-term increased risk for first depression, including both severe episodes leading to hospital contact and use of antidepressants. Clinicians should be aware that the risk is highest in women with comorbid conditions, node...

  15. Increasing tsunami risk awareness via mobile application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leelawat, N.; Suppasri, A.; Latcharote, P.; Imamura, F.; Abe, Y.; Sugiyasu, K.

    2017-02-01

    In the information and communication technology era, smartphones have become a necessity. With the capacity and availability of smart technologies, a number of benefits are possible. As a result, designing a mobile application to increase tsunami awareness has been proposed, and a prototype has been designed and developed. The application uses data from the 2011 Great East Japan Tsunami. Based on the current location determined by a GPS function matched with the nearest point extracted from the detailed mesh data of that earlier disaster, the application generates the inundation depth at the user’s location. Thus, not only local people but also tourists visiting the affected areas can understand the risks involved. Application testing has been conducted in an evacuation experiment involving both Japanese and foreign students. The proposed application can be used as a supplementary information tool in tsunami evacuation drills. It also supports the idea of smart tourism: when people realize their risks, they possess risk awareness and hence can reduce their risks. This application can also be considered a contribution to disaster knowledge and technology, as well as to the lessons learned from the practical outcome.

  16. Increased thyroid cancer risk in acromegaly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagdelen, Selcuk; Cinar, Nese; Erbas, Tomris

    2014-08-01

    Acromegaly increases cancer risk. We aimed to determine the prevalence and the predictors of tumors in acromegalic patients treated at our department. We retrospectively evaluated 160 acromegalic patients [79 female (mean age 52.0 ± 10.4 years) and 81 male (mean age 49.1 ± 12.4 years)] between 1990 and 2012, with a mean follow up period of 7.1 ± 5.7 years. The patients were screened with colonoscopy, mammography, thyroid and prostate ultrasonography. Malignancy was found in 34 (21.3%) patients. No significant difference was observed in the distribution of malignancy among sexes (20.3% in F vs. 22.2% in M). Thyroid cancer was the most frequent (n = 17, 10.6%) followed by the breast cancer (n = 4, 2.5%) and colorectal cancer (n = 3, 1.8%). Renal cell cancer in two patients, bladder cancer in two patients, periampullary tumor, rectal carcinoid tumor, malignant melanoma, prostate cancer, lung cancer, parotid mucoepidermoid carcinoma and malignant mesenchymal tumor in brain in one patient were detected. One patient had both thyroid and renal cell cancer. Age of patients at diagnosis of acromegaly was significantly higher in patients with cancer (45.8 ± 9.9 vs. 40.9 ± 11.3 years, p cancer. In logistic regression analysis, older age at diagnosis was associated with malignancy risk. The risk of cancer in acromegaly especially the thyroid cancer risk seems to be more increased than known in the literature. Therefore, acromegaly patients should be screened routinely for cancer, especially for thyroid cancer due to it being up to four times higher prevalence than breast and colorectal cancer.

  17. Alcoholic Cirrhosis Increases Risk for Autoimmune Diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grønbæk, Lisbet; Vilstrup, Hendrik; Deleuran, Bent

    2015-01-01

    IRR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.26-1.92), celiac disease (aIRR, 5.12; 95% CI, 2.58-10.16), pernicious anemia (aIRR, 2.35; 95% CI, 1.50-3.68), and psoriasis (aIRR, 4.06; 95% CI, 3.32-4.97). There was no increase in the incidence rate for rheumatoid arthritis (aIRR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.69-1.15); the incidence rate......BACKGROUND & AIMS: Alcoholic cirrhosis is associated with hyperactivation and dysregulation of the immune system. In addition to its ability to increase risk for infections, it also may increase the risk for autoimmune diseases. We studied the incidence of autoimmune diseases among patients...... (controls) of the same sex and age. The incidence rates of various autoimmune diseases were compared between patients with cirrhosis and controls and adjusted for the number of hospitalizations in the previous year (a marker for the frequency of clinical examination). RESULTS: Of the 24,679 patients...

  18. Can increased organic consumption mitigate climate changes?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heerwagen, Lennart Ravn; Andersen, Laura Mørch; Christensen, Tove

    2014-01-01

    consumers. As some consumers believe that climate change can be mitigated by consuming organic food, the authors propose that this is taken into account in the development of organic farming. Originality/value – The authors propose a shift from analysing the climate-friendliness of production to addressing......Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the evidence for a positive correlation between increased consumption of organic products and potential climate change mitigation via decreased consumption of meat and it is discussed to what extent organic consumption is motivated by climate...... correlation between increasing organic budget shares and decreasing meat budget shares is found. People include food-related behaviour such as the purchase of organic food and reduced meat consumption as ways to mitigate climate change. However, other behavioural modifications such as reduction of car usage...

  19. Hypospadias and increased risk for neurodevelopmental disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butwicka, Agnieszka; Lichtenstein, Paul; Landén, Mikael; Nordenvall, Anna S; Nordenström, Anna; Nordenskjöld, Agneta; Frisén, Louise

    2015-02-01

    Hypospadias (aberrant opening of the urethra on the underside of the penis) occurs in 1 per 300 newborn boys. It has been previously unknown whether this common malformation is associated with increased psychiatric morbidity later in life. Studies of individuals with hypospadias also provide an opportunity to examine whether difference in androgen signaling is related to neurodevelopmental disorders. To elucidate the mechanisms behind a possible association, we also studied psychiatric outcomes among brothers of the hypospadias patients. Registry study within a national cohort of all 9,262 males with hypospadias and their 4,936 healthy brothers born in Sweden between 1973 and 2009. Patients with hypospadias and their brothers were matched with controls by year of birth and county. The following outcomes were evaluated (1) any psychiatric (2) psychotic, (3) mood, (4) anxiety, (5) eating, and (6) personality disorders, (7) substance misuse, (8) attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), (9) autism spectrum disorders (ASD), (10) intellectual disability, and (11) other behavioral/emotional disorders with onset in childhood. Patients with hypospadias were more likely to be diagnosed with intellectual disability (OR 3.2; 95% CI 2.8-3.8), ASD (1.4; 1.2-1.7), ADHD (1.5; 1.3-1.9), and behavioral/emotional disorders (1.4; 1.2-1.6) compared with the controls. Brothers of patients with hypospadias had an increased risk of ASD (1.6; 1.3-2.1) and other behavioral/emotional disorders with onset in childhood (1.2; 0.9-1.5) in comparison to siblings of healthy individuals. A slightly higher, although not statistically significant, risk was found for intellectual disability (1.3; 1.0-1.9). No relation between other psychiatric diagnosis and hypospadias was found. This is the first study to identify an increased risk for neurodevelopmental disorders in patients with hypospadias, as well as an increased risk for ASD in their brothers, suggesting a common familial (genetic and

  20. Homocysteine increases the risk associated with hyperlipidaemia.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Daly, Caroline

    2009-04-01

    The European Concerted Action Project \\'Homocysteine and Vascular Disease\\' showed that an elevated homocysteine is associated with a substantially increased risk of cardiovascular disease, and particularly when combined with other factors such as smoking, hypertension and hypercholesterolaemia. The purpose of this study was to examine the potential interactions between homocysteine and individual lipid subfractions. In addition, it was hypothesized that HDL cholesterol may protect against hyperhomocysteinaemia because HDL cholesterol is associated with the enzyme paroxonase, which reduces oxidization of homocysteine to the harmful metabolite, homocysteine thiolactonase.

  1. Sleep lengthening in late adulthood signals increased risk of mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soh, Avril Z; Chee, Michael W L; Yuan, Jian-Min; Koh, Woon-Puay

    2018-03-01

    Epidemiological evidence indicates that both short and long sleep at midlife increase mortality risk, but few studies have examined how change in sleep duration between midlife and later life affects this risk. We examined the association between change in sleep duration and mortality risk. The Singapore Chinese Health Study is a prospective cohort of 63257 Chinese in Singapore aged 45-74 years at recruitment (1993-1998). Self-reported sleep duration was collected from 39523 participants who completed both baseline (mean age 54.8 years) and follow-up II (mean age 67.9 years; 2006-2010) interviews, which were on average 12.7 years apart. Mortality data were obtained via linkage with national death registry up to December 31, 2015. Compared with participants who reported sleeping the recommended duration (7 hr) at both interviews, those with persistently short sleep (≤5 hr) had increased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.27, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06-1.53). Similarly, those with persistently long sleep (≥9 hr) had increased risk of all-cause (HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.24-1.73) and cardiovascular (HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.04-1.89) mortality. The proportion of long-sleepers increased with aging (6%-23.7%). Progression to long sleep from short (HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.24-1.81) or recommended (HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.25-1.64) duration was associated with increased all-cause mortality, especially for cardiovascular mortality. Change in sleep duration was not linked to cancer mortality. Persistent short or long sleep or increasing sleep duration in late adulthood was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality, especially from cardiovascular causes.

  2. Climate Change and Risks to National Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titley, D.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change impacts national security in three ways: through changes in the operating environments of the military; by increasing risks to security infrastructure, specifically bases and training ranges; and by exacerbating and accelerating the risks of state collapse and conflict in regions that are already fragile and unstable. Additionally there will be unique security challenges in the Arctic as sea-ice melts out and human activities increase across multiple dimensions. Military forces will also likely see increased demand for Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief resulting from a combination of increased human population, rising sea-level, and potentially stronger and wetter storms. The talk will explore some of the lesser known aspects of these changes, examine selected climate-driven 'wild cards' that have the potential to disrupt regional and global security, and explore how migration in the face of a changing climate may heighten security issues. I will assess the positions U.S. executive and legislative branches with respect to climate & security, and how those positions have evolved since the November 2016 election, sometimes in counter-intuitive ways. The talk will close with some recommended courses of action the security enterprise can take to manage this climate risk.

  3. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available This report is submitted as a deliverable of the SRP project Global Change Risk Analysis which aims at applying risk analysis as a unifying notion for quantifying and communicating threats to ecosystem services originating from global change...

  4. Increasing risk of prosthetic joint infection after total hip arthroplasty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background and purpose The risk of revision due to infection after primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) has been reported to be increasing in Norway. We investigated whether this increase is a common feature in the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden). Materials and methods The study was based on the Nordic Arthroplasty Register Association (NARA) dataset. 432,168 primary THAs from 1995 to 2009 were included (Denmark: 83,853, Finland 78,106, Norway 88,455, and Sweden 181,754). Adjusted survival analyses were performed using Cox regression models with revision due to infection as the endpoint. The effect of risk factors such as the year of surgery, age, sex, diagnosis, type of prosthesis, and fixation were assessed. Results 2,778 (0.6%) of the primary THAs were revised due to infection. Compared to the period 1995–1999, the relative risk (with 95% CI) of revision due to infection was 1.1 (1.0–1.2) in 2000–2004 and 1.6 (1.4–1.7) in 2005–2009. Adjusted cumulative 5–year revision rates due to infection were 0.46% (0.42–0.50) in 1995–1999, 0.54% (0.50–0.58) in 2000–2004, and 0.71% (0.66–0.76) in 2005–2009. The entire increase in risk of revision due to infection was within 1 year of primary surgery, and most notably in the first 3 months. The risk of revision due to infection increased in all 4 countries. Risk factors for revision due to infection were male sex, hybrid fixation, cement without antibiotics, and THA performed due to inflammatory disease, hip fracture, or femoral head necrosis. None of these risk factors increased in incidence during the study period. Interpretation We found increased relative risk of revision and increased cumulative 5–year revision rates due to infection after primary THA during the period 1995–2009. No change in risk factors in the NARA dataset could explain this increase. We believe that there has been an actual increase in the incidence of prosthetic joint infections after THA. PMID

  5. Placental Chorangiosis: Increased Risk for Cesarean Section

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shariska S. Petersen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We describe a patient with Class C diabetes who presented for nonstress testing at 36 weeks and 4 days of gestation with nonreassuring fetal heart tones (NRFHT and oligohydramnios. Upon delivery, thrombosis of the umbilical cord was grossly noted. Pathological analysis of the placenta revealed chorangiosis, vascular congestion, and 40% occlusion of the umbilical vein. Chorangiosis is a vascular change of the placenta that involves the terminal chorionic villi. It has been proposed to result from longstanding, low-grade hypoxia in the placental tissue and has been associated with such conditions such as diabetes, intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR, and hypertensive conditions in pregnancy. To characterize chorangiosis and its associated obstetric outcomes we identified 61 cases of “chorangiosis” on placental pathology at Henry Ford Hospital from 2010 to 2015. Five of these cases were omitted due to lack of complete records. Among the 56 cases, the cesarean section rate was 51%, indicated in most cases for nonreassuring fetal status. Thus, we suggest that chorangiosis, a marker of chronic hypoxia, is associated with increased rates of cesarean sections for nonreassuring fetal status because of long standing hypoxia coupled with the stress of labor.

  6. Increased leukemia risk in Chernobyl cleanup workers

    Science.gov (United States)

    A new study found a significantly elevated risk for chronic lymphocytic leukemia among workers who were engaged in recovery and clean-up activities following the Chernobyl power plant accident in 1986.

  7. Climate Change and Food-Related Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isidro Juan Mirón Pérez

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available There are two principal concepts to take into account relating food and climate change: food security and food safety. Most papers linking climate change to food risks deal with the first one: the security of the food supply.The increase of the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, together with the rise of the temperatures on a global level would theorically lead to greater yields of crops grown for human and animal consumption. Howevwe, most of these studies have shown that, in general, crop yields are decreasing as this global change also brings about an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. In adition, these weather anomalies would be unevenly spread and affect developing countries, which are less capable of tackling this change, more severely. All these factors would result in greater uncertainty in the supply of food, which consequently would be less predictable and leave it more exposed to market speculation.A rise in average temperatures would be expected to increase the risk of proliferation of foodborne disease-causing microorganisms such as Salmonella or Campylobacter. Nevertheless, a trend of this sort has not been detected yet in developed countries, where information systems allow the temporal evolution of the occurrence of those diseases to be tracked, since means for food preservation and food controls are wide spread.

  8. Increasing resilience through participative flood risk map design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Sven; Spira, Yvonne; Stickler, Therese

    2013-04-01

    In recent years, an increasing number of flood hazards has shown to the European Commission and the Member States of the European Union the importance of flood risk management strategies in order to reduce losses and to protect the environment and the citizens. Exposure to floods as well as flood vulnerability might increase across Europe due to the ongoing economic development in many EU countries. Thus even without taking climate change into account an increase of flood disasters in Europe might be foreseeable. These circumstances have produced a reaction in the European Commission, and a Directive on the Assessment and Management of Flood Risks was issued as one of the three components of the European Action Programme on Flood Risk Management. Floods have the potential to jeopardise economic development, above all due to an increase of human activities in floodplains and the reduction of natural water retention by land use activities. As a result, an increase in the likelihood and adverse impacts of flood events is expected. Therefore, concentrated action is needed at the European level to avoid severe impacts on human life and property. In order to have an effective tool available for gathering information, as well as a valuable basis for priority setting and further technical, financial and political decisions regarding flood risk mitigation and management, it is necessary to provide for the establishment of flood risk maps which show the potential adverse consequences associated with different flood scenarios. So far, hazard and risk maps are compiled in terms of a top-down linear approach: planning authorities take the responsibility to create and implement these maps on different national and local scales, and the general public will only be informed about the outcomes (EU Floods Directive, Article 10). For the flood risk management plans, however, an "active involvement of interested parties" is required, which means at least some kind of multilateral

  9. Hypospadias and increased risk for neurodevelopmental disorders

    OpenAIRE

    Butwicka, Agnieszka; Lichtenstein, Paul; Landén, Mikael; Nordenvall, Anna; Nordenström, Anna; Nordenskjöld, Agneta; Frisén, Louise

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Hypospadias (aberrant opening of the urethra on the underside of the penis) occurs in 1 per 300 newborn boys. It has been previously unknown whether this common malformation is associated with increased psychiatric morbidity later in life. Studies of individuals with hypospadias also provide an opportunity to examine whether difference in androgen signaling is related to neurodevelopmental disorders. To elucidate the mechanisms behind ...

  10. An Increase in the Omega-6/Omega-3 Fatty Acid Ratio Increases the Risk for Obesity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simopoulos, Artemis P.

    2016-01-01

    In the past three decades, total fat and saturated fat intake as a percentage of total calories has continuously decreased in Western diets, while the intake of omega-6 fatty acid increased and the omega-3 fatty acid decreased, resulting in a large increase in the omega-6/omega-3 ratio from 1:1 during evolution to 20:1 today or even higher. This change in the composition of fatty acids parallels a significant increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Experimental studies have suggested that omega-6 and omega-3 fatty acids elicit divergent effects on body fat gain through mechanisms of adipogenesis, browning of adipose tissue, lipid homeostasis, brain-gut-adipose tissue axis, and most importantly systemic inflammation. Prospective studies clearly show an increase in the risk of obesity as the level of omega-6 fatty acids and the omega-6/omega-3 ratio increase in red blood cell (RBC) membrane phospholipids, whereas high omega-3 RBC membrane phospholipids decrease the risk of obesity. Recent studies in humans show that in addition to absolute amounts of omega-6 and omega-3 fatty acid intake, the omega-6/omega-3 ratio plays an important role in increasing the development of obesity via both AA eicosanoid metabolites and hyperactivity of the cannabinoid system, which can be reversed with increased intake of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA). A balanced omega-6/omega-3 ratio is important for health and in the prevention and management of obesity. PMID:26950145

  11. An Increase in the Omega-6/Omega-3 Fatty Acid Ratio Increases the Risk for Obesity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Artemis P. Simopoulos

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In the past three decades, total fat and saturated fat intake as a percentage of total calories has continuously decreased in Western diets, while the intake of omega-6 fatty acid increased and the omega-3 fatty acid decreased, resulting in a large increase in the omega-6/omega-3 ratio from 1:1 during evolution to 20:1 today or even higher. This change in the composition of fatty acids parallels a significant increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Experimental studies have suggested that omega-6 and omega-3 fatty acids elicit divergent effects on body fat gain through mechanisms of adipogenesis, browning of adipose tissue, lipid homeostasis, brain-gut-adipose tissue axis, and most importantly systemic inflammation. Prospective studies clearly show an increase in the risk of obesity as the level of omega-6 fatty acids and the omega-6/omega-3 ratio increase in red blood cell (RBC membrane phospholipids, whereas high omega-3 RBC membrane phospholipids decrease the risk of obesity. Recent studies in humans show that in addition to absolute amounts of omega-6 and omega-3 fatty acid intake, the omega-6/omega-3 ratio plays an important role in increasing the development of obesity via both AA eicosanoid metabolites and hyperactivity of the cannabinoid system, which can be reversed with increased intake of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA. A balanced omega-6/omega-3 ratio is important for health and in the prevention and management of obesity.

  12. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, Levi D.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Anderson, Jamie D.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Townsley, Edwin S.; Harrison, Alan; Pruitt, Tom

    2009-04-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios.

  13. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  14. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models....... The multidisciplinary character of such risk assessments also requires that research groups and experts from different scientific disciplines combine knowledge and share model outputs. This paper describes an integrated framework and tool, the Danish Integrated Assessment System (DIAS), which has been designed...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...

  15. Deepwater subsea: changing markets, increased opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowley, Will

    2004-01-01

    In offshore petroleum exploration, a move to deeper waters has been ongoing for many years with extensive exploration activity, particularly in the ''golden triangle'' of Brazil, US GoM and West Africa. Whilst there are a growing number of new deep water areas, it is essentially this golden triangle that has been responsible for the majority of the current on-stream deep water fields. The past five years has been a particularly interesting time for the offshore industry with the period characterized by dramatic crude oil price swings and unprecedented consolidation amongst amongst operators that have radically changed the global scene

  16. Extreme Geohazards: Reducing the Disaster Risk and Increasing Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plag, Hans-Peter; Stein, Seth; Brocklebank, Sean; Jules-Plag, Shelley; Marsh, Stuart; Campus, Paola

    2013-04-01

    Extreme geohazards have the potential to escalate the global sustainability crisis and put us close to the boundaries of the safe operating space for humanity. Exposure of human assets to geohazards has increased dramatically in recent decades, and the sensitivity of the built environment and the embedded socio-economic fabric have changed. We are putting the urban environment, including megacities, in harm's way. Paradoxically, innovation during recent decades, in particular, urban innovation, has increased the disaster risk and coupled this risk to the sustainability crisis. Only more innovation can reduce disaster risk and lead us out of the sustainability crisis. Extreme geohazards (volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, tsunamis) that occurred regularly throughout the last few millennia mostly did not cause major disasters because population density was low and the built environment was not sprawling into hazardous areas to the same extent as today. Similar extreme events today would cause unparalleled damage on a global scale and could worsen the sustainability crisis. Simulation of these extreme hazards under present conditions can help to assess the disaster risk. The Geohazards Community of Practice of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) with support from the European Science Foundation is preparing a white paper assessing the contemporary disaster risks associated with extreme geohazards and developing a vision for science and society to engage in deliberations addressing this risk (see http://www.geohazcop.org/projects/extgeowp). Risk awareness and monitoring is highly uneven across the world, and this creates two kinds of problems. Firstly, potential hazards are much more closely monitored in wealthy countries than in the developing world. But the largest hazards are global in nature, and it is critical to get as much forewarning as possible to develop an effective response. The disasters and near-misses of the past show that adherence to scientific

  17. Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guixian Dong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.

  18. Rural Nevada and climate change: vulnerability, beliefs, and risk perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safi, Ahmad Saleh; Smith, William James; Liu, Zhnongwei

    2012-06-01

    In this article, we present the results of a study investigating the influence of vulnerability to climate change as a function of physical vulnerability, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity on climate change risk perception. In 2008/2009, we surveyed Nevada ranchers and farmers to assess their climate change-related beliefs, and risk perceptions, political orientations, and socioeconomic characteristics. Ranchers' and farmers' sensitivity to climate change was measured through estimating the proportion of their household income originating from highly scarce water-dependent agriculture to the total income. Adaptive capacity was measured as a combination of the Social Status Index and the Poverty Index. Utilizing water availability and use, and population distribution GIS databases; we assessed water resource vulnerability in Nevada by zip code as an indicator of physical vulnerability to climate change. We performed correlation tests and multiple regression analyses to examine the impact of vulnerability and its three distinct components on risk perception. We find that vulnerability is not a significant determinant of risk perception. Physical vulnerability alone also does not impact risk perception. Both sensitivity and adaptive capacity increase risk perception. While age is not a significant determinant of it, gender plays an important role in shaping risk perception. Yet, general beliefs such as political orientations and climate change-specific beliefs such as believing in the anthropogenic causes of climate change and connecting the locally observed impacts (in this case drought) to climate change are the most prominent determinants of risk perception. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Climate change risk perception and communication: addressing a critical moment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pidgeon, Nick

    2012-06-01

    Climate change is an increasingly salient issue for societies and policy-makers worldwide. It now raises fundamental interdisciplinary issues of risk and uncertainty analysis and communication. The growing scientific consensus over the anthropogenic causes of climate change appears to sit at odds with the increasing use of risk discourses in policy: for example, to aid in climate adaptation decision making. All of this points to a need for a fundamental revision of our conceptualization of what it is to do climate risk communication. This Special Collection comprises seven papers stimulated by a workshop on "Climate Risk Perceptions and Communication" held at Cumberland Lodge Windsor in 2010. Topics addressed include climate uncertainties, images and the media, communication and public engagement, uncertainty transfer in climate communication, the role of emotions, localization of hazard impacts, and longitudinal analyses of climate perceptions. Climate change risk perceptions and communication work is critical for future climate policy and decisions. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

    2015-04-01

    Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

  1. Modeling Linkage Disequilibrium Increases Accuracy of Polygenic Risk Scores

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vilhjálmsson, Bjarni J.; Yang, Jian; Finucane, Hilary K.; Gusev, Alexander; Lindström, Sara; Ripke, Stephan; Genovese, Giulio; Loh, Po-Ru; Bhatia, Gaurav; Do, Ron; Hayeck, Tristan; Won, Hong-Hee; Kathiresan, Sekar; Pato, Michele; Pato, Carlos; Tamimi, Rulla; Stahl, Eli; Zaitlen, Noah; Pasaniuc, Bogdan; Belbin, Gillian; Kenny, Eimear E.; Schierup, Mikkel H.; de Jager, Philip; Patsopoulos, Nikolaos A.; McCarroll, Steve; Daly, Mark; Purcell, Shaun; Chasman, Daniel; Neale, Benjamin; Goddard, Michael; Visscher, Peter M.; Kraft, Peter; Patterson, Nick; Price, Alkes L.; Neale, Benjamin M.; Corvin, Aiden; Walters, James T. R.; Farh, Kai-How; Holmans, Peter A.; Lee, Phil; Bulik-Sullivan, Brendan; Collier, David A.; Huang, Hailiang; Pers, Tune H.; Agartz, Ingrid; Agerbo, Esben; Albus, Margot; Alexander, Madeline; Amin, Farooq; Bacanu, Silviu A.; Begemann, Martin; Belliveau, Richard A.; Bene, Judit; Bergen, Sarah E.; Bevilacqua, Elizabeth; Bigdeli, Tim B.; Black, Donald W.; Bruggeman, Richard; Buccola, Nancy G.; Buckner, Randy L.; Byerley, William; Cahn, Wiepke; Cai, Guiqing; Campion, Dominique; Cantor, Rita M.; Carr, Vaughan J.; Carrera, Noa; Catts, Stanley V.; Chambert, Kimberly D.; Chan, Raymond C. K.; Chen, Ronald Y. L.; Chen, Eric Y. H.; Cheng, Wei; Cheung, Eric F. C.; Chong, Siow Ann; Cloninger, C. Robert; Cohen, David; Cohen, Nadine; Cormican, Paul; Craddock, Nick; Crowley, James J.; Curtis, David; Davidson, Michael; Davis, Kenneth L.; Degenhardt, Franziska; del Favero, Jurgen; DeLisi, Lynn E.; Demontis, Ditte; Dikeos, Dimitris; Dinan, Timothy; Djurovic, Srdjan; Donohoe, Gary; Drapeau, Elodie; Duan, Jubao; Dudbridge, Frank; Durmishi, Naser; Eichhammer, Peter; Eriksson, Johan; Escott-Price, Valentina; Essioux, Laurent; Fanous, Ayman H.; Farrell, Martilias S.; Frank, Josef; Franke, Lude; Freedman, Robert; Freimer, Nelson B.; Friedl, Marion; Friedman, Joseph I.; Fromer, Menachem; Georgieva, Lyudmila; Gershon, Elliot S.; Giegling, Ina; Giusti-Rodrguez, Paola; Godard, Stephanie; Goldstein, Jacqueline I.; Golimbet, Vera; Gopal, Srihari; Gratten, Jacob; Grove, Jakob; de Haan, Lieuwe; Hammer, Christian; Hamshere, Marian L.; Hansen, Mark; Hansen, Thomas; Haroutunian, Vahram; Hartmann, Annette M.; Henskens, Frans A.; Herms, Stefan; Hirschhorn, Joel N.; Hoffmann, Per; Hofman, Andrea; Hollegaard, Mads V.; Hougaard, David M.; Ikeda, Masashi; Joa, Inge; Julia, Antonio; Kahn, Rene S.; Kalaydjieva, Luba; Karachanak-Yankova, Sena; Karjalainen, Juha; Kavanagh, David; Keller, Matthew C.; Kelly, Brian J.; Kennedy, James L.; Khrunin, Andrey; Kim, Yunjung; Klovins, Janis; Knowles, James A.; Konte, Bettina; Kucinskas, Vaidutis; Kucinskiene, Zita Ausrele; Kuzelova-Ptackova, Hana; Kahler, Anna K.; Laurent, Claudine; Keong, Jimmy Lee Chee; Lee, S. Hong; Legge, Sophie E.; Lerer, Bernard; Li, Miaoxin; Li, Tao; Liang, Kung-Yee; Lieberman, Jeffrey; Limborska, Svetlana; Loughland, Carmel M.; Lubinski, Jan; Lnnqvist, Jouko; Macek, Milan; Magnusson, Patrik K. E.; Maher, Brion S.; Maier, Wolfgang; Mallet, Jacques; Marsal, Sara; Mattheisen, Manuel; Mattingsdal, Morten; McCarley, Robert W.; McDonald, Colm; McIntosh, Andrew M.; Meier, Sandra; Meijer, Carin J.; Melegh, Bela; Melle, Ingrid; Mesholam-Gately, Raquelle I.; Metspalu, Andres; Michie, Patricia T.; Milani, Lili; Milanova, Vihra; Mokrab, Younes; Morris, Derek W.; Mors, Ole; Mortensen, Preben B.; Murphy, Kieran C.; Murray, Robin M.; Myin-Germeys, Inez; Mller-Myhsok, Bertram; Nelis, Mari; Nenadic, Igor; Nertney, Deborah A.; Nestadt, Gerald; Nicodemus, Kristin K.; Nikitina-Zake, Liene; Nisenbaum, Laura; Nordin, Annelie; O'Callaghan, Eadbhard; O'Dushlaine, Colm; O'Neill, F. Anthony; Oh, Sang-Yun; Olincy, Ann; Olsen, Line; van Os, Jim; Pantelis, Christos; Papadimitriou, George N.; Papiol, Sergi; Parkhomenko, Elena; Pato, Michele T.; Paunio, Tiina; Pejovic-Milovancevic, Milica; Perkins, Diana O.; Pietilinen, Olli; Pimm, Jonathan; Pocklington, Andrew J.; Powell, John; Price, Alkes; Pulver, Ann E.; Purcell, Shaun M.; Quested, Digby; Rasmussen, Henrik B.; Reichenberg, Abraham; Reimers, Mark A.; Richards, Alexander L.; Roffman, Joshua L.; Roussos, Panos; Ruderfer, Douglas M.; Salomaa, Veikko; Sanders, Alan R.; Schall, Ulrich; Schubert, Christian R.; Schulze, Thomas G.; Schwab, Sibylle G.; Scolnick, Edward M.; Scott, Rodney J.; Seidman, Larry J.; Shi, Jianxin; Sigurdsson, Engilbert; Silagadze, Teimuraz; Silverman, Jeremy M.; Sim, Kang; Slominsky, Petr; Smoller, Jordan W.; So, Hon-Cheong; Spencer, Chris C. A.; Stahl, Eli A.; Stefansson, Hreinn; Steinberg, Stacy; Stogmann, Elisabeth; Straub, Richard E.; Strengman, Eric; Strohmaier, Jana; Stroup, T. Scott; Subramaniam, Mythily; Suvisaari, Jaana; Svrakic, Dragan M.; Szatkiewicz, Jin P.; Sderman, Erik; Thirumalai, Srinivas; Toncheva, Draga; Tooney, Paul A.; Tosato, Sarah; Veijola, Juha; Waddington, John; Walsh, Dermot; Wang, Dai; Wang, Qiang; Webb, Bradley T.; Weiser, Mark; Wildenauer, Dieter B.; Williams, Nigel M.; Williams, Stephanie; Witt, Stephanie H.; Wolen, Aaron R.; Wong, Emily H. M.; Wormley, Brandon K.; Wu, Jing Qin; Xi, Hualin Simon; Zai, Clement C.; Zheng, Xuebin; Zimprich, Fritz; Wray, Naomi R.; Stefansson, Kari; Adolfsson, Rolf; Andreassen, Ole A.; Blackwood, Douglas H. R.; Bramon, Elvira; Buxbaum, Joseph D.; Børglum, Anders D.; Cichon, Sven; Darvasi, Ariel; Domenici, Enrico; Ehrenreich, Hannelore; Esko, Tonu; Gejman, Pablo V.; Gill, Michael; Gurling, Hugh; Hultman, Christina M.; Iwata, Nakao; Jablensky, Assen V.; Jonsson, Erik G.; Kendler, Kenneth S.; Kirov, George; Knight, Jo; Lencz, Todd; Levinson, Douglas F.; Li, Qingqin S.; Liu, Jianjun; Malhotra, Anil K.; McCarroll, Steven A.; McQuillin, Andrew; Moran, Jennifer L.; Mowry, Bryan J.; Nthen, Markus M.; Ophoff, Roel A.; Owen, Michael J.; Palotie, Aarno; Pato, Carlos N.; Petryshen, Tracey L.; Posthuma, Danielle; Rietschel, Marcella; Riley, Brien P.; Rujescu, Dan; Sham, Pak C.; Sklar, Pamela; St Clair, David; Weinberger, Daniel R.; Wendland, Jens R.; Werge, Thomas; Daly, Mark J.; Sullivan, Patrick F.; O'Donovan, Michael C.; Hunter, David J.; Adank, Muriel; Ahsan, Habibul; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Baglietto, Laura; Berndt, Sonja; Blomquist, Carl; Canzian, Federico; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Chanock, Stephen J.; Crisponi, Laura; Czene, Kamila; Dahmen, Norbert; Silva, Isabel Dos Santos; Easton, Douglas; Eliassen, A. Heather; Figueroa, Jonine; Fletcher, Olivia; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Gaudet, Mia M.; Gibson, Lorna; Haiman, Christopher A.; Hall, Per; Hazra, Aditi; Hein, Rebecca; Henderson, Brian E.; Hofman, Albert; Hopper, John L.; Irwanto, Astrid; Johansson, Mattias; Kaaks, Rudolf; Kibriya, Muhammad G.; Lichtner, Peter; Lund, Eiliv; Makalic, Enes; Meindl, Alfons; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Muranen, Taru A.; Nevanlinna, Heli; Peeters, Petra H.; Peto, Julian; Prentice, Ross L.; Rahman, Nazneen; Sánchez, María José; Schmidt, Daniel F.; Schmutzler, Rita K.; Southey, Melissa C.; Travis, Ruth; Turnbull, Clare; Uitterlinden, Andre G.; van der Luijt, Rob B.; Waisfisz, Quinten; Wang, Zhaoming; Whittemore, Alice S.; Yang, Rose; Zheng, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Polygenic risk scores have shown great promise in predicting complex disease risk and will become more accurate as training sample sizes increase. The standard approach for calculating risk scores involves linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based marker pruning and applying a p value threshold to

  2. Changes in phenology and frost risks of

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Kartschall

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available For a retrospective period of 110 years between 1901 and 2010 (observed data, and for the subsequent future period between 2011 and 2100 we calculated the phenological development (bud burst, harvest ripeness, and in particular the spring frost risk (frost after bud burst, as one important derived variable for grapevine (Vitis vinifera L. cv Riesling for the whole of Germany. For the future climate we included two different scenarios (RCP8.5, RCP2.6 each of them containing a triple set with minimum, medium and maximum temperature increase. The time period between 1981 and 2010 as the last three decades in the observed data was chosen as reference. In general we found an acceleration of the phenological development (all main phases mainly beginning in the late 1980s. For the three-decade period between 2031 and 2060 this acceleration will reach 11±3$11\\pm3$ days in the RCP8.5-scenario. The acceleration for the other stages behaved similarly and results in an earlier harvest ripeness of 13±1$13\\pm1$ days. Since a warmer spring in general leads to earlier bud burst, but does not reduce the risk of frost events during this period in the same manner, changes in the risk of spring frost damage were relatively small. For the coming decades this risk will not decrease for all traditional German viticultural regions in the RCP8.5-scenarios; on the contrary, our results suggest it is likely to increase. The results showed an increasing spring frost risk not only for the debated “upcoming” potential viticultural areas in eastern Germany, an effect which will partly also reach the southernmost viticultural areas. This effect in northern and eastern Germany is due to earlier bud burst together with the stronger continental influence, but for the southern and western regions of Germany is mainly due to the even earlier bud burst. This could modify the regionally nuanced character of German wines.

  3. Schneider lecture: From climate change impacts to climate change risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, C. B.

    2014-12-01

    Steve Schneider was a strong proponent of considering the entire range of possible climate-change outcomes. He wrote and spoke frequently about the importance of low probability/high consequence outcomes as well as most likely outcomes. He worked tirelessly on communicating the risks from overlapping stressors. Technical and conceptual issues have made it difficult for Steve's vision to reach maturity in mainstream climate-change research, but the picture is changing rapidly. The concept of climate-change risk, considering both probability and consequence, is central to the recently completed IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and the concept frames much of the discussion about future research agendas. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks is important for five core reasons. First, conceptualizing the issue as being about probabilities builds a bridge between current climate variability and future climate change. Second, a formulation based on risks highlights the fact that climate impacts occur primarily in extremes. For historical variability and future impacts, the real concern is the conditions under which things break and systems fail, namely, in the extremes. Third, framing the challenge as one of managing risks puts a strong emphasis on exploring the full range of possible outcomes, including low-probability, high/consequence outcomes. Fourth, explaining climate change as a problem in managing risks links climate change to a wide range of sophisticated risk management tools and strategies that underpin much of modern society. Fifth, the concept of climate change as a challenge in managing risks helps cement the understanding that climate change is a threat multiplier, adding new dimensions and complexity to existing and emerging problems. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks creates an important but difficult agenda for research. The emphasis needs to shift from most likely outcomes to most risky outcomes, considering the full

  4. Increased risk of aortic valve stenosis in patients with psoriasis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khalid, Usman; Ahlehoff, Ole; Gislason, Gunnar Hilmar

    2015-01-01

    AIM: Psoriasis is a chronic inflammatory disease associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease including atherosclerosis. The pathogenesis of aortic valve stenosis (AS) also includes an inflammatory component. We therefore investigated the risk of AS in patients with psoriasis compared...... with mild and severe disease, respectively. CONCLUSION: In a nationwide cohort, psoriasis was associated with a disease severity-dependent increased risk of AS. The mechanisms underlying this novel finding require further study....

  5. Relationship Between Maternal Obesity And Increased Risk Of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: The incidence of obesity has risen over the past several decades and in spite of advancement in modern medicine, it remains a risk factor for maternal morbidity and mortality. Objective: To determine the association between obesity (increased body mass index) and increased risk of preeclampsia. The possible ...

  6. Recognising and Managing Increased HIV Transmission Risk in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Minimal prelabour prophylaxis, poor adherence in the month prior to delivery, elevated maternal viral load at delivery, spontaneous preterm labour with prolonged rupture of membranes and chorioamnionitis are simple clinical criteria that identify increased intra-partum transmission risk. In these increased-risk scenarios, ...

  7. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Dawson, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment prioriti...

  8. Epigenetic Changes in Diabetes and Cardiovascular Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keating, Samuel T; Plutzky, Jorge; El-Osta, Assam

    2016-01-01

    Cardiovascular complications remain the leading causes of morbidity and premature mortality in patients with diabetes. Studies in humans and preclinical models demonstrate lasting gene expression changes in the vasculopathies initiated by previous exposure to high glucose concentrations and the associated overproduction of reactive oxygen species. The molecular signatures of chromatin architectures that sensitize the genome to these and other cardiometabolic risk factors of the diabetic milieu are increasingly implicated in the biologic memory underlying cardiovascular complications and now widely considered as promising therapeutic targets. Atherosclerosis is a complex heterocellular disease where the contributing cell types possess distinct epigenomes shaping diverse gene expression. While the extent that pathological chromatin changes can be manipulated in human cardiovascular disease remains to be established, the clinical applicability of epigenetic interventions will be greatly advanced by a deeper understanding of the cell type-specific roles played by writers, erasers, and readers of chromatin modifications in the diabetic vasculature. This review details a current perspective of epigenetic mechanisms of macrovascular disease in diabetes, and highlights recent key descriptions of chromatinized changes associated with persistent gene expression in endothelial, smooth muscle, and circulating immune cells relevant to atherosclerosis. Furthermore we discuss the challenges associated with pharmacological targeting of epigenetic networks to correct abnormal or deregulated gene expression as a strategy to alleviate the clinical burden of diabetic cardiovascular disease. PMID:27230637

  9. Mission Risk Reduction Regulatory Change Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scroggins, Sharon

    2007-01-01

    NASA Headquarters Environmental Management Division supports NASA's mission to pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery, and aeronautics research by integrating environmental considerations into programs and projects early-on, thereby proactively reducing NASA's exposure to institutional, programmatic and operational risk. As part of this effort, NASA established the Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC) as a resource for detecting, analyzing, and communicating environmental regulatory risks to the NASA stakeholder community. The RRAC PC focuses on detecting emerging environmental regulations and other operational change drivers that may pose risks to NASA programs and facilities, and effectively communicating the potential risks. For example, regulatory change may restrict how and where certain activities or operations may be conducted. Regulatory change can also directly affect the ability to use certain materials by mandating a production phase-out or restricting usage applications of certain materials. Regulatory change can result in significant adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities due to NASA's stringent performance requirements for materials and components related to human-rated space vehicles. Even if a regulation does not directly affect NASA operations, U.S. and international regulations can pose program risks indirectly through requirements levied on manufacturers and vendors of components and materials. For example, manufacturers can change their formulations to comply with new regulatory requirements. Such changes can require time-consuming and costly requalification certification for use in human spaceflight programs. The RRAC PC has implemented a system for proactively managing regulatory change to minimize potential adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities. This presentation highlights the process utilized by the RRACPC to communicate regulatory change and the associated

  10. Common Genetic Risk for Melanoma Encourages Preventive Behavior Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lori Diseati

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available There is currently great interest in using genetic risk estimates for common disease in personalized healthcare. Here we assess melanoma risk-related preventive behavioral change in the context of the Coriell Personalized Medicine Collaborative (CPMC. As part of on-going reporting activities within the project, participants received a personalized risk assessment including information related to their own self-reported family history of melanoma and a genetic risk variant showing a moderate effect size (1.7, 3.0 respectively for heterozygous and homozygous individuals. Participants who opted to view their report were sent an optional outcome survey assessing risk perception and behavioral change in the months that followed. Participants that report family history risk, genetic risk, or both risk factors for melanoma were significantly more likely to increase skin cancer preventive behaviors when compared to participants with neither risk factor (ORs = 2.04, 2.79, 4.06 and p-values = 0.02, 2.86 × 10−5, 4.67 × 10−5, respectively, and we found the relationship between risk information and behavior to be partially mediated by anxiety. Genomic risk assessments appear to encourage positive behavioral change in a manner that is complementary to family history risk information and therefore may represent a useful addition to standard of care for melanoma prevention.

  11. Climate change risks for African agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Christoph; Cramer, Wolfgang; Hare, William L; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2011-03-15

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of major risks for African agriculture and food security caused by climate change during coming decades is confirmed by a review of more recent climate change impact assessments (14 quantitative, six qualitative). Projected impacts relative to current production levels range from -100% to +168% in econometric, from -84% to +62% in process-based, and from -57% to +30% in statistical assessments. Despite large uncertainty, there are several robust conclusions from published literature for policy makers and research agendas: agriculture everywhere in Africa runs some risk to be negatively affected by climate change; existing cropping systems and infrastructure will have to change to meet future demand. With respect to growing population and the threat of negative climate change impacts, science will now have to show if and how agricultural production in Africa can be significantly improved.

  12. Coastal Risk Management in a Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, Hans F.; Zanuttigh, Barbara; Andersen, Thomas Lykke

    2014-01-01

    Existing coastal management and defense approaches are not well suited to meet the challenges of climate change and related uncertanities. Professionals in this field need a more dynamic, systematic and multidisciplinary approach. Written by an international group of experts, Coastal Risk...... Management in a Changing Climate provides innovative, multidisciplinary best practices for mitigating the effects of climate change on coastal structures. Based on the Theseus program, the book includes eight study sites across Europe, with specific attention to the most vulnerable coastal environments...

  13. Preoperative weight gain might increase risk of gastric bypass surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Istfan, Nawfal W; Anderson, Wendy A; Apovian, Caroline M; Hess, Donald T; Forse, R Armour

    2011-01-01

    Weight loss improves the cardiovascular and metabolic risk associated with obesity. However, insufficient data are available about the health effects of weight gain, separate from the obesity itself. We sought to determine whether the changes in body weight before open gastric bypass surgery (OGB) would have a significant effect on the immediate perioperative hospital course. A retrospective chart review of 100 consecutive patients was performed to examine the effects of co-morbidities and body weight changes in the immediate preoperative period on the hospital length of stay and the rate of admission to the surgical intensive care unit (SICU). Of our class III obese patients undergoing OGB, 95% had ≥1 co-morbid condition and an overall SICU admission rate of 18%. Compared with the patients with no perioperative SICU admission, the patients admitted to the SICU had a greater degree of insulin resistance (homeostatic model analysis-insulin resistance 10.8 ± 1.3 versus 5.9 ± 0.5, P = .001), greater serum triglyceride levels (225 ± 47 versus 143 ± 8 mg/dL, P = .003), and had gained more weight preoperatively (.52 ± .13 versus .06 ± .06 lb/wk, P = .003). The multivariate analyses showed that preoperative weight gain was a risk factor for a longer length of stay and more SICU admissions lasting ≥3 days, as were a diagnosis of sleep apnea and an elevated serum triglyceride concentration. The results of the present retrospective study suggest that weight gain increases the risk of perioperative SICU admission associated with OGB, independent of the body mass index. Sleep apnea and elevated serum triglyceride levels were also important determinants of perioperative morbidity. In view of the increasing epidemic of obesity and the popularity of bariatric surgical procedures, we propose that additional clinical and metabolic research focusing on the understanding of the complex relationship among obesity, positive energy balance, weight gain, and perioperative

  14. Increased Baseline C-Reactive Protein Concentrations Are Associated with Increased Risk of Infections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zacho, Jeppe; Benfield, Thomas; Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne

    2016-01-01

    CRP tertile (compared with the lowest) had an increased risk of bacterial diseases (hazard ratio 1.7, 95% CI 1.6-1.8), but not viral, mycosis, and parasitic diseases. The increased risk was mainly carried by pneumonia, sepsis, and particularly gram-negative infections. None of the genotype......BACKGROUND: The acute-phase reactant C-reactive protein (CRP) increases rapidly during an infection. We tested the hypothesis that chronic low-level increases in CRP are associated with an increased risk of infectious disease. METHODS: We studied 9660 individuals from a prospective general....... RESULTS: Individuals with CRP >3 mg/L had 1.2 and 1.7 times increased risk of infectious disease, in the prospective general population cohort and the cross-sectional general population study, respectively, compared with individuals with CRP

  15. Increased risk of hyperthyroidism among patients hospitalized with bipolar disorder

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Anders F; Kessing, Lars V

    2005-01-01

    . METHODS: We conducted a historical cohort study using the Danish register data. The observational period was 1977--99. Three study cohorts were identified: all patients with a first hospital admission with resulting index discharge diagnoses of depression, bipolar disorder, or osteoarthritis. The risks......OBJECTIVES: Hyperthyroidism has been associated with affective disorder in many cross-sectional studies, but longitudinal studies in this connection are scarce. We assessed whether hospitalization with depressive disorder or bipolar disorder was a risk factor for development of hyperthyroidism...... with depressive disorder did not have an increased risk of hyperthyroidism, whereas patients with bipolar disorder had an increased of risk on the margin of statistical significance, when compared to patients with osteoarthritis. Patients with bipolar disorder had a significantly increased risk of hyperthyroidism...

  16. Does perceived stress increase the risk of atrial fibrillation?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graff, Simon; Prior, Anders; Fenger-Grøn, Morten

    2017-01-01

    Background Psychological stress is associated with increased risk of acute cardiovascular diseases, as myocardial infarction. We recently found a higher risk of atrial fibrillation following an acute stressful life event, but it remains unknown whether this also applies to common and less acute...... stress exposures. Methods We investigated the risk of incident atrial fibrillation in people with high levels of perceived stress by following a population-based cohort of 114,337 participants from the Danish National Health Survey from 2010 to 2014. The survey holds information on lifestyle factors......-up. The hazard ratio (HR) of atrial fibrillation with 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated with Cox proportional hazard model. Results The risk of atrial fibrillation increased with increasing PSS score; persons in the highest perceived stress quintile had 28% (95% CI, 12%-46%) higher risk of atrial...

  17. Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

  18. Increased Risk of Gallstone Disease Following Colectomy for Ulcerative Colitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mark-Christensen, Anders; Brandsborg, Søren; Laurberg, Søren

    2017-01-01

    Objectives:Biochemical studies suggest that patients who have had a colectomy or restorative proctocolectomy with ileal pouch-anal anastomosis (IPAA) are at an increased risk of developing gallstone disease, but epidemiological studies are lacking. We evaluated the risk of gallstone disease follo...

  19. Increasing frequencies and changing characteristics of heavy precipitation events threatening infrastructure in Europe under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. M. Nissen

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The effect of climate change on potentially infrastructure-damaging heavy precipitation events in Europe is investigated in an ensemble of regional climate simulations conducted at a horizontal resolution of 12 km. Based on legislation and stakeholder interviews the 10-year return period is used as a threshold for the detection of relevant events. A novel technique for the identification of heavy precipitation events is introduced. It records not only event frequency but also event size, duration and severity (a measure taking duration, size and rain amount into account as these parameters determine the potential consequences of the event. Over most of Europe the frequency of relevant heavy precipitation events is predicted to increase with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The number of daily and multi-day events increases at a lower rate than the number of sub-daily events. The event size is predicted to increase in the future over many European regions, especially for sub-daily events. Moreover, the most severe events were detected in the projection period. The predicted changes in frequency, size and intensity of events may increase the risk for infrastructure damages. The climate change simulations do not show changes in event duration.

  20. Increasing frequencies and changing characteristics of heavy precipitation events threatening infrastructure in Europe under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nissen, Katrin M.; Ulbrich, Uwe

    2017-07-01

    The effect of climate change on potentially infrastructure-damaging heavy precipitation events in Europe is investigated in an ensemble of regional climate simulations conducted at a horizontal resolution of 12 km. Based on legislation and stakeholder interviews the 10-year return period is used as a threshold for the detection of relevant events. A novel technique for the identification of heavy precipitation events is introduced. It records not only event frequency but also event size, duration and severity (a measure taking duration, size and rain amount into account) as these parameters determine the potential consequences of the event. Over most of Europe the frequency of relevant heavy precipitation events is predicted to increase with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The number of daily and multi-day events increases at a lower rate than the number of sub-daily events. The event size is predicted to increase in the future over many European regions, especially for sub-daily events. Moreover, the most severe events were detected in the projection period. The predicted changes in frequency, size and intensity of events may increase the risk for infrastructure damages. The climate change simulations do not show changes in event duration.

  1. [Use of oral contraceptives and increased risk of cervical cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schmeink, C.E.; Lenselink, C.H.; Bekkers, R.L.M.

    2008-01-01

    A recently published meta-analysis and a large cohort study showed independently that use of oral contraceptives (OC) leads to an increased relative risk (RR) of cervical cancer. This RR increased with the duration of OC use and was 1.90 after 5 years or more (95% CI: 1.69-2.13). The increased RR

  2. People with Increased Risk of Eye Damage from UV Light

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... light irises may increase the risk of rare eye cancers, such as melanoma of the iris or uveal melanoma . However, not everyone knows about the connection. According to a 2014 eye sun safety survey by the American Academy of ...

  3. Increased risk of migraine in patients with psoriasis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Egeberg, Alexander; Mallbris, Lotus; Hilmar Gislason, Gunnar

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Psoriasis and migraine are common conditions with potential overlap of pathophysiological mechanisms. Both these diseases have been associated with increased cardiovascular risk but little is known about their interplay. OBJECTIVE: We sought to investigate the link between psoriasis, ...

  4. Changes in risk perception over time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomez, L.S.; Jenkins-Smith, H.C.; Miller, K.W.

    1992-01-01

    The focus of this paper is on changes in perceptions of the risks associated with nuclear waste management over time. In particular, we are interested in the kinds of change that take place when the management programs, and those who are charged with implementing them, are subject to intensive public debate over an extended period of time. We are undertaken an over-time study of perceived risks in Colorado and New Mexico by implementing sequential random household surveys in each state, timed at six month intervals. This study employs three of these surveys, spanning the period from summer, 1990 to summer, 1991. Using these data, we examine the dynamics that may underlie variations in perceived risks over time. In particular, our analysis is focused on changes in the roles played by (1) basic political orientations (i.e. political ideology) and (2) trust in those who advocate conflicting policy positions

  5. Balancing Life with an Increased Risk of Cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Helle Vendel; Nilbert, Mef; Bernstein, Inge

    2014-01-01

    led us to explore lived experiences in healthy mutation carriers with Lynch syndrome. Individual interviews were subjected to descriptive phenomenological analysis. Four constitutions, namely, family context, interpretation and transformation, approach to risk and balancing life at risk were......Possibilities to undergo predictive genetic testing for cancer have expanded, which implies that an increasing number of healthy individuals will learn about cancer predisposition. Knowledge about how an increased risk of disease influences life in a long-term perspective is largely unknown, which...... identified and formed the essence of the phenomenon "living with knowledge about risk." Family context influences how experiences and knowledge are interpreted and transformed into thoughts and feelings, which relates to how risk is approached and handled. The constitutions influence each other in a dynamic...

  6. Significant increase of Echinococcus multilocularis prevalencein foxes, but no increased predicted risk for humans

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maas, M.; Dam-Deisz, W.D.C.; Roon, van A.M.; Takumi, K.; Giessen, van der J.W.B.

    2014-01-01

    The emergence of the zoonotic tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis, causative agent ofalveolar echinococcosis (AE), poses a public health risk. A previously designed risk mapmodel predicted a spread of E. multilocularis and increasing numbers of alveolar echinococ-cosis patients in the province of

  7. Increased Risk of Drug-Induced Hyponatremia during High Temperatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna K Jönsson

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To investigate the relationship between outdoor temperature in Sweden and the reporting of drug-induced hyponatremia to the Medical Products Agency (MPA. Methods: All individual adverse drug reactions (ADR reported to MPA from 1 January 2010 to 31 October 2013 of suspected drug-induced hyponatremia and random controls were identified. Reports where the ADR had been assessed as having at least a possible relation to the suspected drug were included. Information on administered drugs, onset date, causality assessment, sodium levels, and the geographical origin of the reports was extracted. A case-crossover design was used to ascertain the association between heat exposure and drug-induced hyponatremia at the individual level, while linear regression was used to study its relationship to sodium concentration in blood. Temperature exposure data were obtained from the nearest observation station to the reported cases. Results: During the study period, 280 reports of hyponatremia were identified. More cases of drug-induced hyponatremia were reported in the warmer season, with a peak in June, while other ADRs showed an opposite annual pattern. The distributed lag non-linear model indicated an increasing odds ratio (OR with increasing temperature in the warm season with a highest odds ratio, with delays of 1–5 days after heat exposure. A cumulative OR for a lag time of 1 to 3 days was estimated at 2.21 at an average daily temperature of 20 °C. The change in sodium per 1 °C increase in temperature was estimated to be −0.37 mmol/L (95% CI: −0.02, −0.72. Conclusions: Warm weather appears to increase the risk of drug-induced hyponatremia

  8. Waiting Time Increases Risk of Attrition in Gambling Disorder Treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Linnet, Jakob; Pedersen, Anders Sune

    2014-01-01

    Attrition is a well known problem in psychotherapeutic treatment. Patients with addiction have high attrition rates, and it is therefore important to identify factors that can improve completion rates in addiction. Here, we investigated the influence of waiting time as a predictor of treatment...... completion in gambling disorder. We compared 48 gambling disorder sufferers with a 56% completion rate (21 non-completers and 27 completers). Binomial logistic regression analysis showed that waiting time from initial contact to the first session with a therapist was a significant predictor of risk...... of attrition: longer waiting times were associated with increased risk of attrition. Age, gender, or comorbidity was not associated with an increased risk of attrition. These data suggest that gambling disorder sufferers benefit from fast access to treatment, and that longer waiting time increases the risk...

  9. Coastal Risk Management in a Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Existing coastal management and defense approaches are not well suited to meet the challenges of climate change and related uncertanities. Professionals in this field need a more dynamic, systematic and multidisciplinary approach. Written by an international group of experts, "Coastal Risk...... Management in a Changing Climate" provides innovative, multidisciplinary best practices for mitigating the effects of climate change on coastal structures. Based on the Theseus program, the book includes eight study sites across Europe, with specific attention to the most vulnerable coastal environments...... such as deltas, estuaries and wetlands, where many large cities and industrial areas are located. Integrated risk assessment tools for considering the effects of climate change and related uncertainties. Presents latest insights on coastal engineering defenses. Provides integrated guidelines for setting up...

  10. Climate change risk communication : a stakeholder-based approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spyres, J.; Sibold, K. [US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Binns, B.; Davis, N. [ICF Consulting, (United States)

    2000-06-01

    The risks that global climate change presents for a variety of vulnerable populations was discussed. The Climate Outreach and Innovation Division of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed an interactive risk communication effort to increase awareness of the risks of climate change so that vulnerable populations can make informed decisions about risk management strategies for addressing global warming. Its ultimate goal was to promote meaningful voluntary mitigation actions that will lead to reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation measures that will result in reducing the risk of climate change impacts. The Division chose constituencies that are either affected by climate change, capable of participating in mitigation and adaptation strategies, or can assist in communicating the risks of climate change to the public. The targeted constituencies consisted of the following six groups: meteorologists, coastal communities, outdoor enthusiasts, public health professionals, businesses, and state and local government leaders. The objective was to develop partnerships between these groups so that they could work together to inform the organisation's membership about the risks of climate change. 1 tab.

  11. Anthropogenic climate change affects meteorological drought risk in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gudmundsson, L; Seneviratne, S I

    2016-01-01

    Drought constitutes a significant natural hazard in Europe, impacting societies and ecosystems across the continent. Climate model simulations with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations project increased drought risk in southern Europe, and on the other hand decreased drought risk in the north. Observed changes in water balance components and drought indicators resemble the projected pattern. However, assessments of possible causes of the reported regional changes have so far been inconclusive. Here we investigate whether anthropogenic emissions have altered past and present meteorological (precipitation) drought risk. For doing so we first estimate the magnitude of 20 year return period drought years that would occur without anthropogenic effects on the climate. Subsequently we quantify to which degree the occurrence probability, i.e. the risk, of these years has changed if anthropogenic climate change is accounted for. Both an observational and a climate model-based assessment suggest that it is >95% likely that human emissions have increased the probability of drought years in the Mediterranean, whereas it is >95% likely that the probability of dry years has decreased in northern Europe. In central Europe the evidence is inconclusive. The results highlight that anthropogenic climate change has already increased drought risk in southern Europe, stressing the need to develop efficient mitigation measures. (letter)

  12. On capital allocation for stochastic arrangement increasing actuarial risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pan Xiaoqing

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the increasing convex ordering of the optimal discounted capital allocations for stochastic arrangement increasing risks with stochastic arrangement decreasing occurrence times. The application to optimal allocation of policy limits is presented as an illustration as well.

  13. Increased stomach cancer risk following radiotherapy for testicular cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hauptmann, M; Fossa, S D; Stovall, M

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Abdominal radiotherapy for testicular cancer (TC) increases risk for second stomach cancer, although data on the radiation dose-response relationship are sparse. METHODS: In a cohort of 22,269 5-year TC survivors diagnosed during 1959-1987, doses to stomach subsites were estimated...... for 92 patients who developed stomach cancer and 180 matched controls. Chemotherapy details were recorded. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using logistic regression. RESULTS: Cumulative incidence of second primary stomach cancer was 1.45% at 30 years after TC diagnosis. The TC survivors who received...... radiotherapy (87 (95%) cases, 151 (84%) controls) had a 5.9-fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.7-20.7) increased risk of stomach cancer. Risk increased with increasing stomach dose (P-trend

  14. Delayed diagnosis of coeliac disease increases cancer risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Di Benedetto Rita

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The association between coeliac disease (CD and neoplasms has been long established, but few data are available about the risk factors. The aim of this paper is to estimate the risk of developing a neoplasm among non diagnosed coeliac patients and to evaluate if this risk correlates with the age of patients at diagnosis of coeliac disease. Methods The study population consists of patients (n = 1968 diagnosed with CD at 20 Italian gastroenterology referral Centers between 1st January 1982 and 31st March 2005. Results The SIR for all cancers resulted to be 1.3; 95% CI = 1.0–1.7 p Conclusion Coeliac patients have an increased risk of developing cancer in relation to the age of diagnosis of CD. This risk results higher for malignancies of the gastro-intestinal sites. An accurate screening for tumors should be performed in patients diagnosed with CD in adulthood and in advancing age.

  15. Increased stomach cancer risk following radiotherapy for testicular cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauptmann, M; Fossa, S D; Stovall, M; van Leeuwen, F E; Johannesen, T B; Rajaraman, P; Gilbert, E S; Smith, S A; Weathers, R E; Aleman, B M P; Andersson, M; Curtis, R E; Dores, G M; Fraumeni, J F; Hall, P; Holowaty, E J; Joensuu, H; Kaijser, M; Kleinerman, R A; Langmark, F; Lynch, C F; Pukkala, E; Storm, H H; Vaalavirta, L; van den Belt-Dusebout, A W; Travis, L B; Morton, L M

    2015-01-06

    Abdominal radiotherapy for testicular cancer (TC) increases risk for second stomach cancer, although data on the radiation dose-response relationship are sparse. In a cohort of 22,269 5-year TC survivors diagnosed during 1959-1987, doses to stomach subsites were estimated for 92 patients who developed stomach cancer and 180 matched controls. Chemotherapy details were recorded. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using logistic regression. Cumulative incidence of second primary stomach cancer was 1.45% at 30 years after TC diagnosis. The TC survivors who received radiotherapy (87 (95%) cases, 151 (84%) controls) had a 5.9-fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.7-20.7) increased risk of stomach cancer. Risk increased with increasing stomach dose (P-trendstomach increased gastric cancer risk for several decades, with the highest risks after stomach doses of ⩾30 Gy. Clinicians should be aware of these excesses when previously irradiated TC survivors present with gastrointestinal symptoms and when any radiotherapy is considered in newly diagnosed TC patients.

  16. Global risk of big earthquakes has not recently increased.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shearer, Peter M; Stark, Philip B

    2012-01-17

    The recent elevated rate of large earthquakes has fueled concern that the underlying global rate of earthquake activity has increased, which would have important implications for assessments of seismic hazard and our understanding of how faults interact. We examine the timing of large (magnitude M≥7) earthquakes from 1900 to the present, after removing local clustering related to aftershocks. The global rate of M≥8 earthquakes has been at a record high roughly since 2004, but rates have been almost as high before, and the rate of smaller earthquakes is close to its historical average. Some features of the global catalog are improbable in retrospect, but so are some features of most random sequences--if the features are selected after looking at the data. For a variety of magnitude cutoffs and three statistical tests, the global catalog, with local clusters removed, is not distinguishable from a homogeneous Poisson process. Moreover, no plausible physical mechanism predicts real changes in the underlying global rate of large events. Together these facts suggest that the global risk of large earthquakes is no higher today than it has been in the past.

  17. Increased Correlation in Bear markets: A Downside Risk Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Campbell, Rachel; Koedijk, Kees; Kofman, Paul

    2002-01-01

    A number of studies have provided evidence of increased correlation in global financial market returns during bear markets. Others, however, have shown that some of this evidence may have been biased. We derive an alternative estimator for implied correlation based on portfolio downside risk measures that does not suffer from this bias. These unbiased quantile correlation estimates are directly applicable to portfolio optimization and to risk management techniques in general. This simple and ...

  18. Risk factors for increased severity of paediatric medication administration errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sears, Kim; Goodman, William M

    2012-08-01

    Patients' risks from medication errors are widely acknowledged. Yet not all errors, if they occur, have the same risks for severe consequences. Facing resource constraints, policy makers could prioritize factors having the greatest severe-outcome risks. This study assists such prioritization by identifying work-related risk factors most clearly associated with more severe consequences. Data from three Canadian paediatric centres were collected, without identifiers, on actual or potential errors that occurred. Three hundred seventy-two errors were reported, with outcome severities ranging from time delays up to fatalities. Four factors correlated significantly with increased risk for more severe outcomes: insufficient training; overtime; precepting a student; and off-service patient. Factors' impacts on severity also vary with error class: for wrong-time errors, the factors precepting a student or working overtime significantly increase severe-outcomes risk. For other types, caring for an off-service patient has greatest severity risk. To expand such research, better standardization is needed for categorizing outcome severities. Copyright © 2012 Longwoods Publishing.

  19. Does using marijuana increase the risk for developing schizophrenia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evins, A Eden; Green, Alan I; Kane, John M; Murray, Robin M

    2013-04-01

    As more US states and other countries consider legalizing marijuana, clinicians need to know the possible effects of this drug. Research has shown a connection between marijuana use and an increased risk for schizophrenia in young people who are vulnerable to developing psychosis. An international panel of experts addresses topics such as risk factors for schizophrenia, the potency and effects of cannabis use on adolescents, the effects of concurrent drug use with cannabis on schizophrenia risk, and current attitudes toward marijuana. © Copyright 2013 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

  20. Vitamin D status and changes in cardiovascular risk factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skaaby, Tea; Husemoen, Lise Lotte Nystrup; Pisinger, Charlotta

    2012-01-01

    A low vitamin D level has been associated with increased cardiovascular disease risk but possible mechanisms remain unclear. We investigated the association between vitamin D levels and 5-year changes in blood pressure, lipid profile and incidence of the metabolic syndrome, hypertension and hyper......A low vitamin D level has been associated with increased cardiovascular disease risk but possible mechanisms remain unclear. We investigated the association between vitamin D levels and 5-year changes in blood pressure, lipid profile and incidence of the metabolic syndrome, hypertension...

  1. Pet ownership increases human risk of encountering ticks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, E H; Hinckley, A F; Hook, S A; Meek, J I; Backenson, B; Kugeler, K J; Feldman, K A

    2018-02-01

    We examined whether pet ownership increased the risk for tick encounters and tickborne disease among residents of three Lyme disease-endemic states as a nested cohort within a randomized controlled trial. Information about pet ownership, use of tick control for pets, property characteristics, tick encounters and human tickborne disease were captured through surveys, and associations were assessed using univariate and multivariable analyses. Pet-owning households had 1.83 times the risk (95% CI = 1.53, 2.20) of finding ticks crawling on and 1.49 times the risk (95% CI = 1.20, 1.84) of finding ticks attached to household members compared to households without pets. This large evaluation of pet ownership, human tick encounters and tickborne diseases shows that pet owners, whether of cats or dogs, are at increased risk of encountering ticks and suggests that pet owners are at an increased risk of developing tickborne disease. Pet owners should be made aware of this risk and be reminded to conduct daily tick checks of all household members, including the pets, and to consult their veterinarian regarding effective tick control products. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  2. Managing climate change risk : emerging financial sector expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, R.

    2004-01-01

    Engagement of the financial sector in the climate change debate is apparent, with social investors and advocacy groups launching 32 climate change related shareholder resolutions with American and Canadian energy companies in 2003. Eos Research and Consulting Ltd. recently conducted a study to examine emerging standards for how energy companies manage climate change related risks. A survey was conducted in the first part of the study to determine the environmental awareness of energy companies. Financial firms were asked whether they sought information concerning GHG inventories; projections of future emissions; action plans for addressing climate change and energy efficiency; evaluation of relative risk; estimation of cost of carbon; assessment of financial impact; evaluation of future regulations; and emissions trading activity. The second part of the study compared the response of 11 leading energy companies. The result was 2 opposing views on how climate change risks should be managed. The survey revealed that while most mainstream financial institutions are not paying much attention to climate change issues, socially responsible investment (SRI) investors are aware and working to factor climate change risk management information into their activities. In addition, SRI is growing at a faster pace than other investment segments, which may lead to greater future expectations for energy companies' climate change risk management efforts. It was concluded that the financial sector may emerge as an important source of direction that will guide energy companies in their future efforts to manage climate change risks. The five trends that contribute to the sector's emerging role are the continuing influence of advocacy groups; evolution of socially responsible approaches to investment; growing concerns for reputation; development of financial risk assessment approaches in terms of climate change; and, increase focus on corporate governance issues. 15 refs., 2 tabs., 1

  3. Increased risk of sudden cardiac arrest in obstructive pulmonary disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warnier, Miriam Jacoba; Blom, Marieke Tabo; Bardai, Abdennasser

    2013-01-01

    with electrocardiographic documentation of VT/VF were included. Conditional logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association between SCA and OPD. Pre-specified subgroup analyses were performed regarding age, sex, cardiovascular risk-profile, disease severity, and current use of respiratory drugs. RESULTS......BACKGROUND: We aimed to determine whether (1) patients with obstructive pulmonary disease (OPD) have an increased risk of sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) due to ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation (VT/VF), and (2) the SCA risk is mediated by cardiovascular risk-profile and/or respiratory drug use......: A higher risk of SCA was observed in patients with OPD (n = 190 cases [15%], 622 controls [11%]) than in those without OPD (OR adjusted for cardiovascular risk-profile 1.4 [1.2-1.6]). In OPD patients with a high cardiovascular risk-profile (OR 3.5 [2.7-4.4]) a higher risk of SCA was observed than in those...

  4. Increased pancreatic cancer risk following radiotherapy for testicular cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hauptmann, Michael; Børge Johannesen, Tom; Gilbert, Ethel S

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Pancreatic cancer risk is elevated among testicular cancer (TC) survivors. However, the roles of specific treatments are unclear. METHODS: Among 23 982 5-year TC survivors diagnosed during 1947-1991, doses from radiotherapy to the pancreas were estimated for 80 pancreatic cancer...... patients and 145 matched controls. Chemotherapy details were recorded. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs). RESULTS: Cumulative incidence of second primary pancreatic cancer was 1.1% at 30 years after TC diagnosis. Radiotherapy (72 (90%) cases and 115 (80%) controls) was associated...... with a 2.9-fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.0-7.8) increased risk. The OR increased linearly by 0.12 per Gy to the pancreas (P-trendrisks remained elevated ⩾20 years after TC diagnosis (P=0.020). The risk increased...

  5. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Dawson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment priorities for adaptation. The three examples explore interdependencies that arise from (1 climate loading dependence; (2 mediation of two climate impacts by physical processes operating over large spatial extents; and, (3 multiple risks that are influenced by shared climatic and socio-economic drivers. Drawing upon learning from these case studies, and other work, a framework for the analysis and consideration of interdependencies in climate change risk assessment has been developed. This is an iterative learning loop that involves defining the system, scoping interaction mechanisms, applying appropriate modelling tools, identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities, and assessing the performance of adaptation interventions.

  6. Extreme Geohazards: Reducing Disaster Risk and Increasing Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plag, Hans-Peter; Stein, Seth; Brocklebank, Sean; Jules-Plag, Shelley; Campus, Paola

    2014-05-01

    Extreme natural hazards have the potential to cause global disasters and to lead to an escalation of the global sustainability crisis. Floods and droughts pose threats that could reach planetary extent, particularly through secondary economic and social impacts. Earthquakes and tsunamis cause disasters that could exceed the immediate coping capacity of the global economy, particularly in hazardous areas containing megacities, that can be particularly vulnerable to natural hazards if proper emergency protocols and infrastructures are not set in place. Recent events illustrate the destruction extreme hazards can inflict, both directly and indirectly, through domino effects resulting from the interaction with the built environment. Unfortunately, the more humanity learns to cope with relatively frequent (50 to 100 years) natural hazard events, the less concerns remain about the low-probability (one in a few hundred or more years) high-impact events. As a consequence, threats from low-probability extreme floods, droughts, and volcanic eruptions are not appropriately accounted for in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) discussions. With the support of the European Science Foundation (ESF), the Geohazards Community of Practice (GHCP) of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) has developed a White Paper (WP) on the risk associated with low-probability, high-impact geohazards. These events are insufficiently addressed in risk management, although their potential impacts are comparable to those of a large asteroid impact, a global pandemic, or an extreme drought. The WP aims to increase awareness of the risk associated with these events as a basis for a comprehensive risk management. Extreme geohazards have occurred regularly throughout the past, but mostly did not cause major disasters because the exposure of human assets to such hazards and the global population density were much lower than today. The most extreme events during the last 2,000 years would cause today unparalleled

  7. Climatic change in Germany. Development, consequences, risks and perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brasseur, Guy; Jacob, Daniela; Schuck-Zoeller, Susanne

    2017-01-01

    The book on the climatic change in Germany includes contributions to the following issues: global climate projections and regional projections in Germany and Europe: observation of the climatic change in Central Europe, regional climate modeling, limits and challenges of the regional climate modeling; climatic change in Germany - regional features and extremes: temperature and heat waves, precipitation, wind and cyclones, sea-level increase, tides, storm floods and sea state, floods, definition uncertainties, draughts, forest fires, natural risks; consequences of the climatic change in Germany: air quality, health, biodiversity, water resources, biochemical cycles, agriculture, forestry, soils, personal and commercial transport, cities and urban regions, tourism, infrastructure, energy and water supplies, cost of the climatic change and economic consequences; overall risks and uncertainties: assessment of vulnerabilities, literature review, climatic change as risk enhancement in complex systems, overall risks and uncertainties, decision making under uncertainties in complex systems; integrated strategies for the adaptation to the climatic change: the climate resilient society - transformations and system changes, adaptation to the climatic change as new political field, options for adaptation strategies.

  8. 86Rubidium uptake in mononuclear leucocytes from young subjects at increased risk of developing essential hypertension

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, J R; Johansen, Torben; Pedersen, K E

    1988-01-01

    This study was designed to assess any changes in mononuclear leucocytes from young men at increased risk of developing essential hypertension and to determine whether any changes found were associated with borderline hypertension and/or heredity. To this end we used mononuclear leucocytes......, and especially in those borderline hypertensives with at least one hypertensive parent. The latter group was also the group at greatest risk of developing essential hypertension....

  9. Climate change policy in a growing economy under catastrophic risks

    OpenAIRE

    Tsur, Yacov; Zemel, Amos

    2007-01-01

    Under risk of catastrophic climate change, the occurrence hazard is added to the social discount rate. As a result, the social discount rate (i) increases and (ii) turns endogenous to the global warming policy. The second effect bears profound policy implications that are magnifed by economic growth. In particular, it implies that green- house gases (GHG) emission should gradually be brought to a halt. Due to the public bad nature of the catastrophic risk, the second effect is ignored in a co...

  10. Drivers of flood risk change in residential areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elmer, F.; Hoymann, J.; Düthmann, D.; Vorogushyn, S.; Kreibich, H.

    2012-05-01

    The observed increase of direct flood damage over the last decades may be caused by changes in the meteorological drivers of floods, or by changing land-use patterns and socio-economic developments. It is still widely unknown to which extent these factors will contribute to future flood risk changes. We survey the change of flood risk in terms of expected annual damage for residential buildings in the lower part of the Mulde River basin (Vereinigte Mulde) between 1990 and 2020 in 10-yr time steps based on measurements and model projections. For this purpose we consider the complete risk chain from climate impact via hydrological and hydraulic modelling to damage and risk estimation. We analyse what drives the changes in flood risk and quantify the contributions of these drivers: flood hazard change due to climate change, land-use change and changes in building values. We estimate flood risk and building losses based on constant values and based on effective (inflation adjusted) values separately. For constant values, estimated building losses for the most extreme inundation scenario amount to more than 360 million € for all time steps. Based on effective values, damage estimates for the same inundation scenario decrease from 478 million € in 1990 to 361 million € in 2000 and 348 million € in 2020 (maximum land-use scenario). Using constant values, flood risk is 111% (effective values: 146%) of the 2000 estimate in 1990 and 121% (effective values: 115%) of the 2000 estimate for the maximum land-use scenario in 2020. The quantification of driver contributions reveals that land-use change in the form of urban sprawl in endangered areas is the main driver of flood risk in the study area. Climate induced flood hazard change is important but not a dominant factor of risk change in the study area. With the historical exception of the economic effects in Eastern Germany following the German reunification, value developments only have minor influence on the

  11. Increased risk of active tuberculosis after cancer diagnosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonsen, Dennis F; Farkas, Dóra K; Horsburgh, Charles R; Thomsen, Reimar W; Sørensen, Henrik T

    2017-06-01

    Cancer may increase risk of active tuberculosis but evidence is sparse. We therefore examined tuberculosis risk in patients with incident cancer using Danish nationwide medical databases. We conducted a matched follow-up study comparing risk of active tuberculosis in cancer-exposed individuals to that in a general population comparison cohort, matched on gender, age, and country of origin, in different follow-up intervals using Cox regression. We identified 290,944 patients with incident cancer and 871,147 matched comparison cohort members during 1 January, 2004-30 November, 2013. After adjusting for comorbidities, the overall adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for tuberculosis among cancer patients was 2.48 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.99-3.10). The highest tuberculosis risks were observed following cancers of the aerodigestive tract (aHR = 8.12; 95% CI: 4.33-15.22), tobacco-related cancers (aHR = 5.01; 95% CI: 3.37-7.44), and hematological cancers (aHR = 4.88; 95% CI: 2.27-10.48). Tuberculosis risk was highly elevated within the first year after cancer diagnosis (aHR = 4.14; 95% CI: 2.88-5.96), with a 6.78-fold increased aHR for cancer patients receiving cytostatics or radiotherapy. Beyond five years of observation, the overall aHR for tuberculosis remained at 2.66 (95% CI: 1.22-5.81). Cancer is a clinical predictor for increased risk of active tuberculosis, probably related to decreased infection barriers, immunosuppression, and shared risk factors. Copyright © 2017 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Debunking vaccination myths: strong risk negations can increase perceived vaccination risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betsch, Cornelia; Sachse, Katharina

    2013-02-01

    Information about risks is often contradictory, especially in the health domain. A vast amount of bizarre information on vaccine-adverse events (VAE) can be found on the Internet; most are posted by antivaccination activists. Several actors in the health sector struggle against these statements by negating claimed risks with scientific explanations. The goal of the present work is to find optimal ways of negating risk to decrease risk perceptions. In two online experiments, we varied the extremity of risk negations and their source. Perception of the probability of VAE, their expected severity (both variables serve as indicators of perceived risk), and vaccination intentions. Paradoxically, messages strongly indicating that there is "no risk" led to a higher perceived vaccination risk than weak negations. This finding extends previous work on the negativity bias, which has shown that information stating the presence of risk decreases risk perceptions, while information negating the existence of risk increases such perceptions. Several moderators were also tested; however, the effect occurred independently of the number of negations, recipient involvement, and attitude. Solely the credibility of the information source interacted with the extremity of risk negation: For credible sources (governmental institutions), strong and weak risk negations lead to similar perceived risk, while for less credible sources (pharmaceutical industries) weak negations lead to less perceived risk than strong negations. Optimal risk negation may profit from moderate rather than extreme formulations as a source's trustworthiness can vary.

  13. Avoiding Drought Risks and Social Conflict Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Towler, E.; Lazrus, H.; Paimazumder, D.

    2014-12-01

    Traditional drought research has mainly focused on physical drought risks and less on the cultural processes that also contribute to how drought risks are perceived and managed. However, as society becomes more vulnerable to drought and climate change threatens to increase water scarcity, it is clear that drought research would benefit from a more interdisciplinary approach. To assess avoided drought impacts from reduced climate change, drought risks need to be assessed in the context of both climate prediction as well as improved understanding of socio-cultural processes. To this end, this study explores a risk-based framework to combine physical drought likelihoods with perceived risks from stakeholder interviews. Results are presented from a case study on how stakeholders in south-central Oklahoma perceive drought risks given diverse cultural beliefs, water uses, and uncertainties in future drought prediction. Stakeholder interviews (n=38) were conducted in 2012 to understand drought risks to various uses of water, as well as to measure worldviews from the cultural theory of risk - a theory that explains why people perceive risks differently, potentially leading to conflict over management decisions. For physical drought risk, drought projections are derived from a large ensemble of future climates generated from two RCPs that represent higher and lower emissions trajectories (i.e., RCP8.5 and RCP4.5). These are used to develop a Combined Drought Risk Matrix (CDRM) that characterizes drought risks for different water uses as the products of both physical likelihood (from the climate ensemble) and risk perception (from the interviews). We use the CRDM to explore the avoided drought risks posed to various water uses, as well as to investigate the potential for reduction of conflict over water management.

  14. Charter Schools and the Risk of Increased Segregation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rotberg, Iris C.

    2014-01-01

    This article examines a wide array of research on the link between school choice programs and student segregation and draws implications for the Obama Administration's policy promoting the national expansion of charter schools. The research demonstrates how the proliferation of charter schools risks increasing current levels of segregation…

  15. Patients with chronic pancreatitis are at increased risk for osteoporosis.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Duggan, SN

    2012-10-01

    Patients with chronic pancreatitis may be at an increased risk of low bone density because of malabsorption of vitamin D and calcium, poor diet, pain, alcoholism, and smoking. We investigated the rates of osteoporosis in patients with chronic pancreatitis compared to matched controls.

  16. Peculiarities of territorial governing in the area of increased risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marchinskas, A.

    1998-01-01

    The area of Ignalina NPP can be evaluated from the standpoint of governing as the area of increased risk territory (zone), so the local administration should acquire a specific status. The results of expert examination show insufficient efficiency of the administration's activity, it's orientation to quantitative results. An objective fund is necessary for the supporting the local administration and population of this area. (author)

  17. Does Childhood Disability Increase Risk for Child Abuse and Neglect?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leeb, Rebecca T.; Bitsko, Rebecca H.; Merrick, Melissa T.; Armour, Brian S.

    2012-01-01

    In this article we review the empirical evidence for the presumptions that children with disabilities are at increased risk for child maltreatment, and parents with disabilities are more likely to perpetrate child abuse and neglect. Challenges to the epidemiological examination of the prevalence of child maltreatment and disabilities are…

  18. Increased colon cancer risk after severe Salmonella infection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lapo Mughini-Gras

    Full Text Available Colon cancer constitutes one of the most frequent malignancies. Previous studies showed that Salmonella manipulates host cell signaling pathways and that Salmonella Typhimurium infection facilitates colon cancer development in genetically predisposed mice. This epidemiological study examined whether severe Salmonella infection, usually acquired from contaminated food, is associated with increased colon cancer risk in humans.We performed a nationwide registry-based study to assess colon cancer risk after diagnosed Salmonella infection. National infectious disease surveillance records (1999-2015 for Dutch residents aged ≥20 years when diagnosed with salmonellosis (n = 14,264 were linked to the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Salmonella-infected patients were laboratory-confirmed under medical consultation after 1-2 weeks of illness. These datasets also contained information on Salmonella serovar and type of infection. Colon cancer risk (overall and per colon subsite among patients with a diagnosed Salmonella infection was compared with expected colon cancer risk in the general population. Data from the nationwide registry of histo- and cytopathology (PALGA and Statistics Netherlands (CBS allowed assessing potential effects of age, gender, latency, socioeconomic status, genetic predisposition, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD, and tumor features. We found that compared to the general population, colon cancer risk was significantly increased (standardized incidence ratio [SIR] 1.54; 95%CI 1.09-2.10 among patients with Salmonella infection diagnosed <60 years of age. Such increased risk concerned specifically the ascending/transverse colon (SIR 2.12; 95%CI 1.38-3.09 after S. Enteritidis infection (SIR 2.97; 95%CI 1.73-4.76. Salmonellosis occurred more frequently among colon cancer patients with pre-infectious IBD, a known risk factor for colon cancer. Colon tumors of patients with a history of Salmonella infection were mostly of low grade

  19. Changes in seafood consumer preference patterns and associated changes in risk exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jensen, Helen H. . E-mail hhjensen@iastate.edu

    2006-01-01

    Consumers world-wide are driving changes in the agriculture and food sector. Rising consumer income, changing demographics and lifestyles, and shifting preferences due to new information about the links between diet and health all contribute to new demands for foods. At the same time, technological changes in production, processing and distribution, growth in large-scale retailing, and changes in product availability, as well as expansion of trade world wide, have contributed to a rapidly changing market for food products. Changes in seafood consumption reflect these changes. The changes in consumer consumption patterns, new technologies and trade in product offer both expanded markets as well as new challenges to consumer exposure to food-borne risks. The strict quality control requirements of retail brokers, growth of private labels, and development of value-protecting marketing channels have become increasingly important in food markets. This paper addresses major trends that affect seafood consumption and the market for seafood products and the implications of these changes for consumer risk exposure to food safety hazards. The current economic environment highlights similarities and differences between the developed and developing countries, as well as diversity worldwide in consumption of seafood. Within this context, four major trends affect consumer consumption of foods, including seafood and fish products today: rising income; changing demographics; changing markets for food; and an increasingly global market for food products. Changes in consumer risk exposure to food safety problems are addressed in the context of these trends

  20. Increased risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma among upstream petroleum workers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkeleit, Jorunn; Riise, Trond; Bjørge, Tone; Moen, Bente E; Bråtveit, Magne; Christiani, David C

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To investigate cancer risk, particularly oesophageal cancer, among male upstream petroleum workers offshore potentially exposed to various carcinogenic agents. Methods Using the Norwegian Registry of Employers and Employees, 24 765 male offshore workers registered from 1981 to 2003 was compared with 283 002 male referents from the general working population matched by age and community of residence. The historical cohort was linked to the Cancer Registry of Norway and the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. Results Male offshore workers had excess risk of oesophageal cancer (RR 2.6, 95% CI 1.4 to 4.8) compared with the reference population. Only the adenocarcinoma type had a significantly increased risk (RR 2.7, 95% CI 1.0 to 7.0), mainly because of an increased risk among upstream operators (RR 4.3, 95% CI 1.3 to 14.5). Upstream operators did not have significant excess of respiratory system or colon cancer or mortality from any other lifestyle-related diseases investigated. Conclusion We found a fourfold excess risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma among male workers assumed to have had the most extensive contact with crude oil. Due to the small number of cases, and a lack of detailed data on occupational exposure and lifestyle factors associated with oesophageal adenocarcinoma, the results must be interpreted with caution. Nevertheless, given the low risk of lifestyle-related cancers and causes of death in this working group, the results add to the observations in other low-powered studies on oesophageal cancer, further suggesting that factors related to the petroleum stream or carcinogenic agents used in the production process might be associated with risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma. PMID:19858535

  1. Smoking increases the risk of early meniscus repair failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackwell, Ryan; Schmitt, Laura C; Flanigan, David C; Magnussen, Robert A

    2016-05-01

    The goal of this study is to determine whether patients who smoke cigarettes at the time of surgery are at significantly increased risk of early meniscus repair failure relative to non-smokers. Retrospective chart review identified 64 current smokers within a series of 444 consecutive patients who underwent meniscus repair during a 7 years period. Fifty-two of these 64 smokers were available for follow-up and were matched by age, sex, and ACL status with non-smokers from the same cohort. Records of these 104 patients with a total of 120 meniscus repairs were reviewed to identify meniscus repair failure (defined as repeat surgery on the index meniscus) during the median 13-month (range: 3-79 months) follow-up period. The smoking and non-smoking groups were similar in age, sex, ACL status, BMI, meniscus repair technique, and meniscus involved. Meniscus repair failure occurred in 19 of the 112 menisci in 104 patients, for an overall failure risk of 17 %. Of the 19 failures, 14 occurred in 79 repaired medial menisci (18 % failure risk) and 5 occurred in 33 repaired lateral menisci (15 % failure risk). Meniscus repair failure occurred in significantly more smokers (15 failures in 56 menisci in 52 patients -27 % failure risk) than non-smokers (4 failures in 56 menisci in 52 patients -7 % failure risk) (p = 0.0076). Smoking is associated with significantly increased risk of early meniscus repair failure as defined by the incidence of repeat surgery on the index meniscus. III.

  2. Predicting impacts of climate change on Fasciola hepatica risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naomi J Fox

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Fasciola hepatica (liver fluke is a physically and economically devastating parasitic trematode whose rise in recent years has been attributed to climate change. Climate has an impact on the free-living stages of the parasite and its intermediate host Lymnaea truncatula, with the interactions between rainfall and temperature having the greatest influence on transmission efficacy. There have been a number of short term climate driven forecasts developed to predict the following season's infection risk, with the Ollerenshaw index being the most widely used. Through the synthesis of a modified Ollerenshaw index with the UKCP09 fine scale climate projection data we have developed long term seasonal risk forecasts up to 2070 at a 25 km square resolution. Additionally UKCIP gridded datasets at 5 km square resolution from 1970-2006 were used to highlight the climate-driven increase to date. The maps show unprecedented levels of future fasciolosis risk in parts of the UK, with risk of serious epidemics in Wales by 2050. The seasonal risk maps demonstrate the possible change in the timing of disease outbreaks due to increased risk from overwintering larvae. Despite an overall long term increase in all regions of the UK, spatio-temporal variation in risk levels is expected. Infection risk will reduce in some areas and fluctuate greatly in others with a predicted decrease in summer infection for parts of the UK due to restricted water availability. This forecast is the first approximation of the potential impacts of climate change on fasciolosis risk in the UK. It can be used as a basis for indicating where active disease surveillance should be targeted and where the development of improved mitigation or adaptation measures is likely to bring the greatest benefits.

  3. Climate Change and Risk Management Challenges in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Uffe

    Climate change or global warming results in melting ice in the Arctic, both inland and sea ice. This opens up opportunities of natural ressource extraction and possibilities of new shipping routes, that opens up opportunities for increased maritime activities. However, with these opportunies come...... possibilies of transborder risk management and partnership building....

  4. Adaptation to Increase Resilience to Climate Change in Ethiopian ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Adaptation to Increase Resilience to Climate Change in Ethiopian Agriculture ... Climate change and agriculture in Ethiopia Scientists are predicting that rainfall in Ethiopia will be more variable, with more drought- and flood-related incidents in the ... Amélioration de la planification de la gestion des inondations en Thaïlande.

  5. Recognising and managing increased HIV transmission risk in newborns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Max Kroon

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT programmes have improved maternalhealth outcomes and reduced the incidence of paediatric HIV, resulting in improved childhealth and survival. Nevertheless, high-risk vertical exposures remain common and areresponsible for a high proportion of transmissions. In the absence of antiretrovirals (ARVs,an 8- to 12-hour labour has approximately the same 15% risk of transmission as 18 monthsof mixed feeding. The intensity of transmission risk is highest during labour and delivery;however, the brevity of this intra-partum period lends itself to post-exposure interventions toreduce such risk. There is good evidence that infant post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP reducesintra-partum transmission even in the absence of maternal prophylaxis. Recent reports suggestthat infant combination ARV prophylaxis (cARP is more efficient at reducing intra-partumtransmission than a single agent in situations of minimal pre-labour prophylaxis. Guidelinesfrom the developed world have incorporated infant cARP for increased-risk scenarios. Incontrast, recent guidelines for low-resource settings have rightfully focused on reducingpostnatal transmission to preserve the benefits of breastfeeding, but have largely ignored thepotential of augmented infant PEP for reducing intra-partum transmissions. Minimal prelabourprophylaxis, poor adherence in the month prior to delivery, elevated maternal viralload at delivery, spontaneous preterm labour with prolonged rupture of membranes andchorioamnionitis are simple clinical criteria that identify increased intra-partum transmissionrisk. In these increased-risk scenarios, transmission frequency may be halved by combiningnevirapine and zidovudine as a form of boosted infant PEP. This strategy may be important toreduce intra-partum transmissions when PMTCT is suboptimal.

  6. Risk of falls after withdrawal of fall-risk-increasing drugs: a prospective cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Velde, Nathalie; Stricker, Bruno H. Ch; Pols, Huib A. P.; van der Cammen, Tischa J. M.

    2007-01-01

    AIMS: Falling in older persons is a frequent and serious clinical problem. Several drugs have been associated with increased fall risk. The objective of this study was to identify differences in the incidence of falls after withdrawal (discontinuation or dose reduction) of fall-risk-increasing drugs

  7. Maternal allergic contact dermatitis causes increased asthma risk in offspring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Robert H; Arredouani, Mohamed S; Fedulov, Alexey; Kobzik, Lester; Hubeau, Cedric

    2007-07-27

    Offspring of asthmatic mothers have increased risk of developing asthma, based on human epidemiologic data and experimental animal models. The objective of this study was to determine whether maternal allergy at non-pulmonary sites can increase asthma risk in offspring. BALB/c female mice received 2 topical applications of vehicle, dinitrochlorobenzene, or toluene diisocyanate before mating with untreated males. Dinitrochlorobenzene is a skin-sensitizer only and known to induce a Th1 response, while toluene diisocyanate is both a skin and respiratory sensitizer that causes a Th2 response. Both cause allergic contact dermatitis. Offspring underwent an intentionally suboptimal protocol of allergen sensitization and aerosol challenge, followed by evaluation of airway hyperresponsiveness, allergic airway inflammation, and cytokine production. Mothers were tested for allergic airway disease, evidence of dermatitis, cellularity of the draining lymph nodes, and systemic cytokine levels. The role of interleukin-4 was also explored using interleukin-4 deficient mice. Offspring of toluene diisocyanate but not dinitrochlorobenzene-treated mothers developed an asthmatic phenotype following allergen sensitization and challenge, seen as increased Penh values, airway inflammation, bronchoalveolar lavage total cell counts and eosinophilia, and Th2 cytokine imbalance in the lung. Toluene diisocyanate treated interleukin-4 deficient mothers were able to transfer asthma risk to offspring. Mothers in both experimental groups developed allergic contact dermatitis, but not allergic airway disease. Maternal non-respiratory allergy (Th2-skewed dermatitis caused by toluene diisocyanate) can result in the maternal transmission of asthma risk in mice.

  8. Maternal allergic contact dermatitis causes increased asthma risk in offspring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kobzik Lester

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Offspring of asthmatic mothers have increased risk of developing asthma, based on human epidemiologic data and experimental animal models. The objective of this study was to determine whether maternal allergy at non-pulmonary sites can increase asthma risk in offspring. Methods BALB/c female mice received 2 topical applications of vehicle, dinitrochlorobenzene, or toluene diisocyanate before mating with untreated males. Dinitrochlorobenzene is a skin-sensitizer only and known to induce a Th1 response, while toluene diisocyanate is both a skin and respiratory sensitizer that causes a Th2 response. Both cause allergic contact dermatitis. Offspring underwent an intentionally suboptimal protocol of allergen sensitization and aerosol challenge, followed by evaluation of airway hyperresponsiveness, allergic airway inflammation, and cytokine production. Mothers were tested for allergic airway disease, evidence of dermatitis, cellularity of the draining lymph nodes, and systemic cytokine levels. The role of interleukin-4 was also explored using interleukin-4 deficient mice. Results Offspring of toluene diisocyanate but not dinitrochlorobenzene-treated mothers developed an asthmatic phenotype following allergen sensitization and challenge, seen as increased Penh values, airway inflammation, bronchoalveolar lavage total cell counts and eosinophilia, and Th2 cytokine imbalance in the lung. Toluene diisocyanate treated interleukin-4 deficient mothers were able to transfer asthma risk to offspring. Mothers in both experimental groups developed allergic contact dermatitis, but not allergic airway disease. Conclusion Maternal non-respiratory allergy (Th2-skewed dermatitis caused by toluene diisocyanate can result in the maternal transmission of asthma risk in mice.

  9. Path Forward to Space Solar Power using the O'Neill - Glaser Model Modified for Climate Change Demand and Considering the Increasing Risk of Human Self-Extinction if Confined to Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curreri, Peter A.; Nall, Mark

    2013-01-01

    The cost of energy is humanity's economic exchange rate with the universe. Space solar power is the first great step that our technological species has to utilize the energy of its star. The classic Peter Glaser Solar Power Satellite, SPS, and later designs collect a large area of solar energy in space and beam it back to Earth for use in the electric grid, but even with optimistic launch costs and technology innovation a clear economic path is not evident using Earth launch of SPS. O Neill in 1969 solved the transportation costs problem by a model that uses lunar and asteroid materials to build SPS and locates the labor force permanently in space (O Neill free space habitats). This solution closes the economics and predicts large profits after 17-35 years. However the costs of time have up to now prevented this solution. We discuss a strategy to move forward in SPS with the motivations to stop global warming and prevent human selfextinction. There are near term steps that can be taken that place us on this path forward. First, we must reevaluate the technologies for the classic model and update the parameters to current technology. As technological capability continues to increase exponentially, we need to understand when the monetary potential energy hills are small as the technology gets larger. But the chance for self-extinction, if humanity remains in a single vulnerable habitat, also increased exponentially with time. The path forward is to identify investment points while assessing the risks of non-action.

  10. Impacts of Climate Change and Land Subsidence on Inundation Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Ching-Nuo Chen; Samkele S. Tfwala

    2018-01-01

    In this study, a physiographic drainage-inundation model was used to analyse the impacts of land subsidence and climate change on inundation disaster and risk in a land subsidence area. The results indicated that for land subsidence and land subsidence combined with climate change, inundation area, and volume increased under one- and two-day storms for 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 200-year return periods. Moreover, locations that originally had high inundation depth showed even greater in...

  11. Risk of severe climate change impact on the terrestrial biosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heyder, Ursula; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Gerten, Dieter; Lucht, Wolfgang

    2011-01-01

    The functioning of many ecosystems and their associated resilience could become severely compromised by climate change over the 21st century. We present a global risk analysis of terrestrial ecosystem changes based on an aggregate metric of joint changes in macroscopic ecosystem features including vegetation structure as well as carbon and water fluxes and stores. We apply this metric to global ecosystem simulations with a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJmL) under 58 WCRP CMIP3 climate change projections. Given the current knowledge of ecosystem processes and projected climate change patterns, we find that severe ecosystem changes cannot be excluded on any continent. They are likely to occur (in > 90% of the climate projections) in the boreal-temperate ecotone where heat and drought stress might lead to large-scale forest die-back, along boreal and mountainous tree lines where the temperature limitation will be alleviated, and in water-limited ecosystems where elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration will lead to increased water use efficiency of photosynthesis. Considerable ecosystem changes can be expected above 3 K local temperature change in cold and tropical climates and above 4 K in the temperate zone. Sensitivity to temperature change increases with decreasing precipitation in tropical and temperate ecosystems. In summary, there is a risk of substantial restructuring of the global land biosphere on current trajectories of climate change.

  12. Endometriosis increases the risk of obstetrical and neonatal complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berlac, Janne Foss; Hartwell, Dorthe; Skovlund, Charlotte Wessel; Langhoff-Roos, Jens; Lidegaard, Øjvind

    2017-06-01

    The objective of this study was to assess obstetrical complications and neonatal outcomes in women with endometriosis as compared with women without endometriosis. National cohort including all delivering women and their newborns in Denmark 1997-2014. Data were extracted from the Danish Health Register and the Medical Birth Register. Logistic regression analysis provided odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Sub-analyses were made for primiparous women with a singleton pregnancy and for women with endometriosis who underwent gynecological surgery before pregnancy. In 19 331 deliveries, women with endometriosis had a higher risk of severe preeclampsia (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.5-2.0), hemorrhage in pregnancy (OR 2.3, 95% CI 2.0-2.5), placental abruption (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.7-2.3), placenta previa (OR 3.9, 95% CI 3.5-4.3), premature rupture of membranes (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.5-1.8), and retained placenta (OR 3.1, 95% CI 1.4-6.6). The neonates had increased risks of preterm birth before 28 weeks (OR 3.1, 95% CI 2.7-3.6), being small for gestational age (OR 1.5, 95% CI 1.4-1.6), being diagnosed with congenital malformations (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.3-1.4), and neonatal death (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.4-2.1). Results were similar in primiparous women with a singleton pregnancy. Gynecological surgery for endometriosis before pregnancy carried a further increased risk. Women with endometriosis had a significantly higher risk of several complications, such as preeclampsia and placental complications in pregnancy and at delivery. The newborns had increased risk of being delivered preterm, having congenital malformations, and having a higher neonatal death rate. Pregnant women with endometriosis require increased antenatal surveillance. © 2017 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  13. Acrolein exposure is associated with increased cardiovascular disease risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeJarnett, Natasha; Conklin, Daniel J; Riggs, Daniel W; Myers, John A; O'Toole, Timothy E; Hamzeh, Ihab; Wagner, Stephen; Chugh, Atul; Ramos, Kenneth S; Srivastava, Sanjay; Higdon, Deirdre; Tollerud, David J; DeFilippis, Andrew; Becher, Carrie; Wyatt, Brad; McCracken, James; Abplanalp, Wes; Rai, Shesh N; Ciszewski, Tiffany; Xie, Zhengzhi; Yeager, Ray; Prabhu, Sumanth D; Bhatnagar, Aruni

    2014-08-06

    Acrolein is a reactive aldehyde present in high amounts in coal, wood, paper, and tobacco smoke. It is also generated endogenously by lipid peroxidation and the oxidation of amino acids by myeloperoxidase. In animals, acrolein exposure is associated with the suppression of circulating progenitor cells and increases in thrombosis and atherogenesis. The purpose of this study was to determine whether acrolein exposure in humans is also associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Acrolein exposure was assessed in 211 participants of the Louisville Healthy Heart Study with moderate to high (CVD) risk by measuring the urinary levels of the major acrolein metabolite-3-hydroxypropylmercapturic acid (3-HPMA). Generalized linear models were used to assess the association between acrolein exposure and parameters of CVD risk, and adjusted for potential demographic confounders. Urinary 3-HPMA levels were higher in smokers than nonsmokers and were positively correlated with urinary cotinine levels. Urinary 3-HPMA levels were inversely related to levels of both early (AC133(+)) and late (AC133(-)) circulating angiogenic cells. In smokers as well as nonsmokers, 3-HPMA levels were positively associated with both increased levels of platelet-leukocyte aggregates and the Framingham Risk Score. No association was observed between 3-HPMA and plasma fibrinogen. Levels of C-reactive protein were associated with 3-HPMA levels in nonsmokers only. Regardless of its source, acrolein exposure is associated with platelet activation and suppression of circulating angiogenic cell levels, as well as increased CVD risk. © 2014 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  14. Flood risk change in some European, African and Asian catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi

    2017-04-01

    In light of the expected increase of flood risk in large parts of the world due to climate change and globally increasing exposure, efficient integrated flood risk management needs to be implemented. Societies learn from floods, and consequently improve their risk management. Such learning can occur through 'focusing events', i.e. events that provide a sudden, strong push for action. For example, the 1953 North Sea flood triggered the Delta Works in The Netherlands and the construction of the Thames Barrier. We show how societies have learnt from focusing events in river systems, by a semi-quantitative assessment of eight paired flood events around the world, i.e. consecutive floods that occurred in the same catchments, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. We unravel the main mechanisms underlying these eight success stories of risk reduction. Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability. The role of changes in exposure is less apparent; positive and negative changes are reported. In some cases, significant investments in flood protection between the floods have played a large role in exposure and damage reduction. Reduction of vulnerability seems to be a key for better risk reduction via integrated flood risk management. Thus, we need to redouble efforts to improve our understanding of vulnerability.

  15. Increased nuchal translucency thickness and risk of neurodevelopmental disorders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hellmuth, S G; Pedersen, L H; Miltoft, C B

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between fetal nuchal translucency (NT) thickness and neurodevelopmental disorders in euploid children. METHODS: This study included 222 505 euploid children who had undergone routine first-trimester screening during fetal life. Children were divided...... spectrum disorders (ASD), cerebral palsy, epilepsy and febrile seizures was obtained from national patient registries. RESULTS: There was no excess risk of neurodevelopmental disorders among euploid children with first-trimester NT 95(th) -99(th) percentile. For children with NT > 99(th) percentile...... in the risk of cerebral palsy (OR, 1.91 (95% CI, 0.61-5.95), 0.47%), epilepsy (OR, 1.51 (95% CI, 0.63-3.66), 0.78%) or febrile seizures (OR, 0.72 (95% CI, 0.44-1.16), 2.65%). CONCLUSIONS: In a large unselected cohort of euploid children, there was no increased risk of neurodevelopmental disorders among those...

  16. Investment risks under uncertain climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blyth, William; Bradley, Richard; Yang, Ming; Bunn, Derek; Clarke, Charlie; Wilson, Tom

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes results from a model of decision-making under uncertainty using a real options methodology, developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The model represents investment decisions in power generation from the perspective of a private company. The investments are subject to uncertain future climate policy, which is treated as an external risk factor over which the company has no control. The aims of this paper are to (i) quantify these regulatory risks in order to improve understanding of how policy uncertainty may affect investment behaviour by private companies and (ii) illustrate the effectiveness of the real options approach as a policy analysis tool. The study analysed firms' investment options of coal- and gas-fired power plants and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. Policy uncertainty is represented as an exogenous event that creates uncertainty in the carbon price. Our findings indicate that climate policy uncertainty creates a risk premium for power generation investments. In the case of gas- and coal-fired power generation, the risk premium would lead to an increase in electricity prices of 5-10% in order to stimulate investment. In the case of CCS, the risk premium would increase the carbon price required to stimulate investment by 16-37% compared to a situation of perfect certainty. The option to retrofit CCS acts as a hedge against high future carbon prices, and could accelerate investment in coal plant. This paper concludes that to minimise investment risks in low carbon technologies, policy-makers should aim to provide some long-term regulatory certainty. (author)

  17. Increased colon cancer risk after severe Salmonella infection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mooij, Sofie; Neefjes-Borst, E. Andra; van Pelt, Wilfrid; Neefjes, Jacques

    2018-01-01

    Background Colon cancer constitutes one of the most frequent malignancies. Previous studies showed that Salmonella manipulates host cell signaling pathways and that Salmonella Typhimurium infection facilitates colon cancer development in genetically predisposed mice. This epidemiological study examined whether severe Salmonella infection, usually acquired from contaminated food, is associated with increased colon cancer risk in humans. Methods and findings We performed a nationwide registry-based study to assess colon cancer risk after diagnosed Salmonella infection. National infectious disease surveillance records (1999–2015) for Dutch residents aged ≥20 years when diagnosed with salmonellosis (n = 14,264) were linked to the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Salmonella-infected patients were laboratory-confirmed under medical consultation after 1–2 weeks of illness. These datasets also contained information on Salmonella serovar and type of infection. Colon cancer risk (overall and per colon subsite) among patients with a diagnosed Salmonella infection was compared with expected colon cancer risk in the general population. Data from the nationwide registry of histo- and cytopathology (PALGA) and Statistics Netherlands (CBS) allowed assessing potential effects of age, gender, latency, socioeconomic status, genetic predisposition, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), and tumor features. We found that compared to the general population, colon cancer risk was significantly increased (standardized incidence ratio [SIR] 1.54; 95%CI 1.09–2.10) among patients with Salmonella infection diagnosed transverse colon (SIR 2.12; 95%CI 1.38–3.09) after S. Enteritidis infection (SIR 2.97; 95%CI 1.73–4.76). Salmonellosis occurred more frequently among colon cancer patients with pre-infectious IBD, a known risk factor for colon cancer. Colon tumors of patients with a history of Salmonella infection were mostly of low grade. Conclusions Patients diagnosed with severe

  18. Does urban land-use increase risk of asthma symptoms?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Son, Ji-Young; Kim, Ho; Bell, Michelle L

    2015-10-01

    Global urbanization is increasing rapidly, especially in Asian countries. The health impacts of this unprecedented rate of urbanization are not well understood. Prevalence of asthma is also increasing, especially in cities. We explored the effects of urbanicity, based on urban land-use and traffic-related air pollutants (NO2, PM10), on asthma symptoms and diagnosis at a nationally representative level, using individual-level data from the 2008-2010 Community Health Survey data in Korea. We applied logistic regression, adjusting for sex, age, education, smoking status, and household income. To investigate whether different levels of urban intensity (i.e., degree of urbanization) affected the association, we stratified analysis by urban intensity for the subject's residential district: high (≥30% urban), medium (10-30%), and low intensity (urban land-use was significantly associated with increased risk of asthma symptoms and diagnosis. A 10% increase of urban land-use of a subject's residential district was associated with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.03 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.04) for self-reported physician-diagnosed asthma. However, increased urbanicity is associated with higher risk of asthma in areas with a baseline of low urbanicity, but not in areas with a baseline of high urbanicity. Significant positive associations were also observed for air pollution (PM10 and NO2) with asthma symptoms and diagnosis. Our findings suggest that increases in urbanicity or air pollution are associated with increased risk of asthma, and that the level of urban intensity affected the associations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. The increased risk of joint venture promotes social cooperation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Te; Fu, Feng; Zhang, Yanling; Wang, Long

    2013-01-01

    The joint venture of many members is common both in animal world and human society. In these public enterprizes, highly cooperative groups are more likely to while low cooperative groups are still possible but not probable to succeed. Existent literature mostly focuses on the traditional public goods game, in which cooperators create public wealth unconditionally and benefit all group members unbiasedly. We here institute a model addressing this public goods dilemma with incorporating the public resource foraging failure risk. Risk-averse individuals tend to lead a autarkic life, while risk-preferential ones tend to participate in the risky public goods game. For participants, group's success relies on its cooperativeness, with increasing contribution leading to increasing success likelihood. We introduce a function with one tunable parameter to describe the risk removal pattern and study in detail three representative classes. Analytical results show that the widely replicated population dynamics of cyclical dominance of loner, cooperator and defector disappear, while most of the time loners act as savors while eventually they also disappear. Depending on the way that group's success relies on its cooperativeness, either cooperators pervade the entire population or they coexist with defectors. Even in the later case, cooperators still hold salient superiority in number as some defectors also survive by parasitizing. The harder the joint venture succeeds, the higher level of cooperation once cooperators can win the evolutionary race. Our work may enrich the literature concerning the risky public goods games.

  20. The increased risk of joint venture promotes social cooperation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Te Wu

    Full Text Available The joint venture of many members is common both in animal world and human society. In these public enterprizes, highly cooperative groups are more likely to while low cooperative groups are still possible but not probable to succeed. Existent literature mostly focuses on the traditional public goods game, in which cooperators create public wealth unconditionally and benefit all group members unbiasedly. We here institute a model addressing this public goods dilemma with incorporating the public resource foraging failure risk. Risk-averse individuals tend to lead a autarkic life, while risk-preferential ones tend to participate in the risky public goods game. For participants, group's success relies on its cooperativeness, with increasing contribution leading to increasing success likelihood. We introduce a function with one tunable parameter to describe the risk removal pattern and study in detail three representative classes. Analytical results show that the widely replicated population dynamics of cyclical dominance of loner, cooperator and defector disappear, while most of the time loners act as savors while eventually they also disappear. Depending on the way that group's success relies on its cooperativeness, either cooperators pervade the entire population or they coexist with defectors. Even in the later case, cooperators still hold salient superiority in number as some defectors also survive by parasitizing. The harder the joint venture succeeds, the higher level of cooperation once cooperators can win the evolutionary race. Our work may enrich the literature concerning the risky public goods games.

  1. Obesity increases risk of ischemic stroke in young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Andrew B; Cole, John W; McArdle, Patrick F; Cheng, Yu-Ching; Ryan, Kathleen A; Sparks, Mary J; Mitchell, Braxton D; Kittner, Steven J

    2015-06-01

    Body mass index has been associated with ischemic stroke in older populations, but its association with stroke in younger populations is not known. In light of the current obesity epidemic in the United States, the potential impact of obesity on stroke risk in young adults deserves attention. A population-based case-control study design with 1201 cases and 1154 controls was used to investigate the relationship of obesity and young onset ischemic stroke. Stroke cases were between the ages of 15 and 49 years. Logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between body mass index and ischemic stroke with and without adjustment for comorbid conditions associated with stroke. In analyses adjusted for age, sex, and ethnicity, obesity (body mass index >30 kg/m(2)) was associated with an increased stroke risk (odds ratio, 1.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.28-1.94) although this increased risk was highly attenuated and not statistically significant after adjustment for smoking, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus. These results indicate that obesity is a risk factor for young onset ischemic stroke and suggest that this association may be partially mediated through hypertension, diabetes mellitus, or other variables associated with these conditions. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  2. Psychosocial risk factors, weight changes and risk of obesity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Louise Bagger; Strandberg-Larsen, Katrine; Prescott, Eva

    2012-01-01

    on average gained 2 kg of weight and 8% became obese during follow-up. The experience of major life events in childhood, work life and adult life was associated with weight gain and obesity in women, but not in men. Vital exhaustion was associated with weight gain in a dose-response manner in men (P = 0......The aim of the study was to establish the effects of a range of psychosocial factors on weight changes and risk of obesity. The study population consisted of the 4,753 participants in the third (1991-1994) and fourth wave (2001-2003) of the Copenhagen City Heart Study, Denmark. At baseline...... the participants were asked comprehensive questions on major life events, work stress, vital exhaustion, social network, economic hardship, and intake of sleep medication. Weight and height were measured by health professionals. Weight changes and incident obesity was used as outcome measures. The participants...

  3. Changes in field workability and drought risk from projected climate change drive spatially variable risks in Illinois cropping systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradley J Tomasek

    Full Text Available As weather patterns become more volatile and extreme, risks introduced by weather variability will become more critical to agricultural production. The availability of days suitable for field work is driven by soil temperature and moisture, both of which may be altered by climate change. We projected changes in Illinois season length, spring field workability, and summer drought risk under three different emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2 down to the crop district scale. Across all scenarios, thermal time units increased in parallel with a longer frost-free season. An increase in late March and Early April field workability was consistent across scenarios, but a decline in overall April through May workable days was observed for many cases. In addition, summer drought metrics were projected to increase for most scenarios. These results highlight how the spatial and temporal variability in climate change may present unique challenges to mitigation and adaptation efforts.

  4. BMI change during puberty and the risk of heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kindblom, J M; Bygdell, M; Sondén, A; Célind, J; Rosengren, A; Ohlsson, C

    2018-03-12

    Hospitalization for heart failure amongst younger men has increased. The reason for this is unknown but it coincides with the obesity epidemic. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between childhood BMI (Body Mass Index) and BMI change during puberty for risk of adult heart failure in men. Using the BMI Epidemiology Study (BEST), a population-based study in Gothenburg, Sweden, we collected information on childhood BMI at age 8 years and BMI change during puberty (BMI at age 20 - BMI at 8) for men born 1945-1961, followed until December 2013 (n = 37 670). BMI was collected from paediatric growth charts and mandatory military conscription tests. Information on heart failure was retrieved from high-quality national registers (342 first hospitalizations for heart failure). BMI change during puberty was independently of childhood BMI associated with risk of heart failure in a nonlinear J-shaped manner. Subjects in the upper quartile of BMI change during puberty (Q4) had more than twofold increased risk of heart failure compared with subjects in Q1 [HR (Hazard Ratio) = 2.29, 95% CI (Confidence Interval) 1.68-3.12]. Childhood BMI was not independently associated with risk of heart failure. Boys developing overweight during puberty (HR 3.14; 95% CI 2.25-4.38) but not boys with childhood overweight that normalized during puberty (HR 1.12, 95% CI 0.63-2.00) had increased risk of heart failure compared with boys without childhood or young adult overweight. BMI change during puberty is a novel risk factor for adult heart failure in men. © 2018 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine.

  5. Increased colon cancer risk after severe Salmonella infection

    OpenAIRE

    Mughini-Gras, Lapo; Schaapveld, Michael; Kramers, Jolanda; Mooij, Sofie; Neefjes-Borst, E. Andra; van Pelt, Wilfrid; Neefjes, Jacques

    2018-01-01

    Background Colon cancer constitutes one of the most frequent malignancies. Previous studies showed that Salmonella manipulates host cell signaling pathways and that Salmonella Typhimurium infection facilitates colon cancer development in genetically predisposed mice. This epidemiological study examined whether severe Salmonella infection, usually acquired from contaminated food, is associated with increased colon cancer risk in humans. Methods and findings We performed a nationwide registry-b...

  6. Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Increased Risk for Malaria Infection

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2010-09-23

    This podcast describes research done in Ghana examining a correlation between type 2 diabetes and a possible increased risk for malaria infection in adults. Dr. Manoj Menon, a medical officer in the Division of Parasitic Diseases and Malaria in the Center for Global Health, discusses questions the study raises.  Created: 9/23/2010 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases; Center for Global Health.   Date Released: 9/23/2010.

  7. Does alcohol increase the risk of preterm delivery?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kesmodel, Ulrik; Olsen, Sjúrður Fróði; Secher, Niels Jørgen

    2000-01-01

    We evaluated the association between alcohol intake during pregnancy and preterm delivery. Women attending routine antenatal care at Aarhus University Hospital, Denmark, from 1989–1991 and 1992–1996 were eligible. We included 18,228 singleton pregnancies in the analyses. We obtained prospective...... information on alcohol intake at 16 and 30 weeks of gestation, other lifestyle factors, maternal characteristics, and obstetrical risk factors from self-administered questionnaires and hospital files. For women with alcohol intake of 1–2, 3–4, 5–9, and >=10 drinks/week the risk ratio (RR) of preterm delivery.......78–7.13) at 30 weeks. Adjustment for smoking habits, caffeine intake, age, height, pre-pregnant weight, marital status, occupational status, education, parity, chronic diseases, previous preterm delivery, mode of initiation of labor, and sex of the child did not change the conclusions, nor did restriction...

  8. Clothing increases the risk of indirect ballistic fractures

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Current literature has shown the mechanism of how indirect fractures occur but has not determined what factors increase the risks of such fractures. The objective of this study is thus to determine the effect of clothing and soft tissue thickness on the risk of indirect fracture formation. Methods Twenty-five fresh red deer femora embedded in ballistic gelatine were shot with varying distances off their medial cortex with a 5.56 × 45 mm North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) bullet while being filmed with a slow-motion video. We compared the effect of two different gelatine depths and the effect of denim cloth laid onto the impact surface of the moulds. Results Bullet passage in thinner moulds failed to cause fracture because the bullet exited the mould before a large expanding temporary cavity was produced. Clothing dramatically altered the size and depth of the expanding cavity, as well as increased lateral pressures, resulting in more severe fractures with greater bullet distances from the bone that can cause fracture. Conclusions Clothing increases the risk of indirect fracture and results in larger, more superficial temporary cavities, with greater lateral pressures than are seen in unclothed specimens, resulting in more comminuted fractures. Greater tissue depth affords the 5.56 × 45 mm NATO a chance to yaw and thus develop an enlarging temporary cavity that is sufficient to cause fracture. PMID:24267379

  9. Significant increase of Echinococcus multilocularis prevalence in foxes, but no increased predicted risk for humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maas, M; Dam-Deisz, W D C; van Roon, A M; Takumi, K; van der Giessen, J W B

    2014-12-15

    The emergence of the zoonotic tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis, causative agent of alveolar echinococcosis (AE), poses a public health risk. A previously designed risk map model predicted a spread of E. multilocularis and increasing numbers of alveolar echinococcosis patients in the province of Limburg, The Netherlands. This study was designed to determine trends in the prevalence and worm burden of E. multilocularis in foxes in a popular recreational area in the southern part of Limburg to assess the risk of infection for humans and to study the prevalence of E. multilocularis in dogs in the adjacent city of Maastricht. Thirty-seven hunted red foxes were tested by the intestinal scraping technique and nested PCR on colon content. Additionally, 142 fecal samples of domestic dogs from Maastricht were analyzed by qPCR for the presence of E. multilocularis. In foxes, a significantly increased prevalence of 59% (95% confidence interval 43-74%) was found, compared to the prevalence of 11% (95% CI 7-18%) in 2005-2006. Average worm burden increased to 37 worms per fox, the highest since the first detection, but consistent with the prediction about the parasite population for this region. Updated prediction on the number of AE cases did not lead to an increase in previous estimates of human AE cases up to 2018. No dogs in the city of Maastricht tested positive, but results of questionnaires showed that deworming schemes were inadequate, especially in dogs that were considered at risk for infection. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Splenectomy increases the subsequent risk of systemic lupus erythematosus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Chao-Yu; Chen, Hsuan-Ju; Hsu, Chung Y; Kao, Chia-Hung

    2016-02-01

    Splenectomy may be necessary to treat systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients with thrombocytopenia; however, whether performing a splenectomy on patients without SLE increases the subsequent risk of SLE remains unknown. Therefore, this study was conducted to determine the association between splenectomy and SLE. We conducted a cohort study by using data from the Taiwan National Health Institute Research Database to identify 10,298 patients with received a splenectomy between 2000 and 2006 and 41,192 participants without received a splenectomy who were selected by frequency matched based on sex, age, and the index year. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) of developing SLE associated with splenectomy compared with patients who did not receive a splenectomy. During the study period, the overall incidence density rate of SLE was higher in the splenectomy cohort than in the non-splenectomy cohort (adjusted HR 10.55; 95 % CI 50.55-20.05). The incidence density rates of SLE in women and men who received a splenectomy were higher than those of patients who did not receive a splenectomy. Non-traumatic splenectomy increases the subsequent risk of SLE. The risk of SLE should be considered before performing a splenectomy, particularly in women and younger patients.

  11. Changes in CVD risk factors in the activity counseling trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meghan Baruth

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Meghan Baruth1, Sara Wilcox1, James F Sallis3, Abby C King4,5, Bess H Marcus6, Steven N Blair1,21Department of Exercise Science, 2Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Public Health Research Center, Columbia, SC, USA; 3Department of Psychology, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, USA; 4Department of Health Research and Policy, 5Stanford Prevention Research Center, Department of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA; 6Behavioral and Social Sciences Section, Brown University Program in Public Health, Providence, RI, USAAbstract: Primary care facilities may be a natural setting for delivering interventions that focus on behaviors that improve cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors. The purpose of this study was to examine the 24-month effects of the Activity Counseling Trial (ACT on CVD risk factors, to examine whether changes in CVD risk factors differed according to baseline risk factor status, and to examine whether changes in fitness were associated with changes in CVD risk factors. ACT was a 24-month multicenter randomized controlled trial to increase physical activity. Participants were 874 inactive men and women aged 35–74 years. Participants were randomly assigned to one of three arms that varied by level of counseling, intensity, and resource requirements. Because there were no significant differences in change over time between arms on any of the CVD risk factors examined, all arms were combined, and the effects of time, independent of arm, were examined separately for men and women. Time × Baseline risk factor status interactions examined whether changes in CVD risk factors differed according to baseline risk factor status. Significant improvements in total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, the ratio of total cholesterol to HDL-C, and triglycerides were seen in

  12. The case study of climate change : the nature of risk and the risk of nature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Good, J. [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States). Dept. of Communication

    2000-06-01

    The science of climate change is complex, large-scale and uncertain. The challenges of communicating the risks of climate change were described with particular emphasis on working with communities to explain climate change with its complex, scientific and social realities. The greenhouse effect is a feature of the earth in which a carbon dioxide blanket absorbs the sun's heat as it radiates off the earth. The paper stated that the greenhouse effect is arguably the best accepted theory in climatology, but the question is whether the huge increase in carbon dioxide that the industrial revolution has brought forth has increased the efficiency of this blanket and set the earth on a warming trend. The ultimate question is whether the earth is warming in response to human activity. It could be claimed that apart from the risk of nuclear war, the risk of climate change is the largest scale risk facing today's society. Climate change pits the burning of fossil fuels against the climate and as a modern day risk, climate change is far removed from the historic roots of environmental risks. The paper argued, that in a world based on burning fossil fuels and where those who are involved with the supply of fossil fuels hold tremendous influence, it is difficult to accept that the burning might have to stop. This paper explored how and what people currently learn about the environment and climate change through the media. A three-step communication strategy based in the United States was then proposed. The first step is aimed at journalists with focus on improved accuracy of climate change information. The second step focuses on urban centres and has as its guiding concepts self-efficacy, reasoned action and the importance of reaching people in diverse communities. The final step is aimed at political leaders, beginning with municipalities, and relies on campaigns for alternative energy.

  13. Increased risk of antidepressant use in childhood cancer survivors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Lasse Wegener; Winther, J.F.; Cederkvist, L

    2015-01-01

    AIM: Childhood cancer survivors are at risk of both somatic and mental late effects, but large population-based studies of depression are lacking. METHODS: Risk of antidepressant use was evaluated in a population-based cohort of 5452 Danish children treated for cancer in 1975-2009 by linkage...... on the association between childhood cancer and antidepressant use indicated no modifying effect. CONCLUSION: Childhood cancer survivors should be followed-up for depression. Our results indicate an increasing need for follow-up especially in survivors treated by more recent, intensive anticancer treatment....... to the National Prescription Drug Database, which worldwide is the oldest nationwide registry of prescription medication. Hazard ratios (HRs) for antidepressant use were estimated in a Cox proportional hazards model stratified on sex, with population comparisons as referents. RESULTS: Overall, childhood cancer...

  14. Increased risk of type 2 diabetes in elderly twins

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Pernille; Grunnet, Louise G; Pilgaard, Kasper

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Genetic susceptibility, low birth weight (LBW), and aging are key etiological factors in the development of type 2 diabetes. LBW is common among twins. It is unknown whether twin status per se is associated with risk of type 2 diabetes, and valid concordance rates of type 2 diabetes....... In addition, type 2 diabetes incidence cases in twins (n = 626) and singletons (n = 553) were identified through the National Diabetes Register. RESULTS: Twins were more abdominally obese, insulin resistant, and glucose intolerant, as evidenced by a higher A1C (%) (means +/- SD) (MZ: 6.0 +/- 1.0, DZ: 5...... status per se is associated with abdominal obesity, insulin resistance, and increased prevalence of type 2 diabetes in elderly twins. The data support a quantitatively significant impact of the fetal environment as opposed to genetics on risk of type 2 diabetes....

  15. Increase the risk of intellectual disability in children with scabies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jui-Ming; Hsu, Ren-Jun; Chang, Fung-Wei; Yeh, Chia-Lun; Huang, Chun-Fa; Chang, Shu-Ting; Chiu, Nan-Chang; Chang, Hung-Yang; Chi, Hsin; Lin, Chien-Yu

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Scabies is a common and distressing disease caused by the mite Sarcoptes scabiei var. hominis. Psychiatric disorder in childhood is an important disease and easily neglected. There are several similarities in scabies and psychiatric disorders in childhood (PDC). Both of them may present with pruritus. They are relatively common in patients with lower socioeconomic status and crowded environment. Furthermore, immune-mediated inflammatory processes play a role in the pathophysiology in both diseases. An association between scabies and psychiatric disorders may exist. This nationwide population-based cohort study utilized data from the National Health Insurance Research Database to investigate the relationship between scabies and PDC. A total of 2137 children with scabies were identified as the study group and 8548 age- and sex-matched children were selected as the control group. A total of 607 (5.68%) children developed PDC during the 7-year follow-up period. The overall incidences of PDC are similar but patients with scabies had a higher risk of developing intellectual disability (ID) (scabies group vs control group: 1.3% vs 0.6%, adjusted hazard ratio: 2.04 and 95% confidence interval: 1.25–3.32). The immune-mediated inflammatory processes of both diseases were reviewed and may contribute to the 104% increased risk of interleukin in patients with scabies. We suggest a more comprehensive management in treating patients with scabies or ID. Early and comprehensive treatment of scabies and other risk factors may decrease the risk of subsequent ID. When we approach patients with ID, concurrent evaluation of scabies and other risk factors may contribute to successful management. PMID:28591057

  16. Can Knowledge Deficit Explain Societal Perception of Climate Change Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, R.; McNeal, K.; Bondell, H.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change literacy efforts have had a rough journey in the past decade. Although scientists have become increasingly convinced about anthropological climate change, change in public opinion has been underwhelming. The unexplained gap between scientific consensus and public opinion has made this topic an important research area in the realm of public understanding of science. Recent research on climate change risk perception (CCRP) has advanced an intriguing hypothesis, namely, cultural cognition thesis (CCT), which posits that the public has adequate knowledge to understand climate change science but people tend to use this knowledge solely to promote their culturally motivated view-point of climate change. This talk provides evidence to demonstrate that despite culture playing a significant role in influencing CCRP, knowledge deficiency remains a persistent problem in our society and contributes to the aforementioned gap. However, such deficits can remain undiagnosed due to limitations of survey design.

  17. Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martens, W.J.M.; Rotmans, J. [National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection, Bilthoven (Netherlands)]|[Univ. of Limburg, Maastricht (Netherlands); Niessen, L.W. [National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection, Bilthoven (Netherlands); Jetten, T.H. [Wageningen Agricultural Univ. (Netherlands); McMichael, A.J. [London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (United Kingdom)

    1995-05-01

    The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to climatic influences, especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century. The concept of the disability-adjusted life years is included to arrive at a single measure of the effect of anthropogenic climate change on the health impact of malaria. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change on the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due to expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. This predicted increase is most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas. The incidence of infection is sensitive to climate changes in areas of Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic; in these regions the numbers of years of healthy life lost may increase significantly. However, the simulated changes in malaria risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environmental conditions, the effects of socioeconomic developments, and malaria control programs or capabilities. 33 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

  18. Large diurnal temperature range increases bird sensitivity to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Briga, Michael; Verhulst, Simon

    2015-01-01

    Climate variability is changing on multiple temporal scales, and little is known of the consequences of increases in short-term variability, particularly in endotherms. Using mortality data with high temporal resolution of zebra finches living in large outdoor aviaries (5 years, 359.220 bird-days),

  19. Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwer, L.M.

    2011-01-01

    A number of studies were conducted to demonstrate the best way to assess the potential influence of climate change on disaster losses was to analyze future projections in place of historical data. These studies showed that increases in exposure and wealth were the most important drivers for growing

  20. Climate change : we are at risk : final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliver, D.; Wiebe, J.

    2003-11-01

    During the period November 2002 to May 2003, the effects of climate change on Canada's agricultural and forestry sectors and rural communities were investigated by the Senate Standing Committee on Agriculture and Forestry. The Saguenay flood of 1996, the Red River flood of 1997, and the 1998 ice storm were reviewed, along with the forest fires in Western Canada during the summer of 2003 and the unusual succession of dry years. This paper includes a discussion on climate change, agriculture, forests, water, rural communities, Aboriginal people, and potential adaptation options. Seven recommendations were made: (1) climate change impacts and adaptation efforts should be coordinated by the Government of Canada, (2) substantial increase in funding and allocation of resources for climate change impacts and adaptation research is required, (3) make water research a national priority, with emphasis on water supply and demand, (4) expand and increase the role and resources of the Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network (C-CIARN), (5) develop and quickly implement an education and communication strategy concerning risks and challenges associated with climate change and its impacts on agriculture and forests, (6) develop a long term safety net to allow farmers the opportunity to take advantage of possible opportunities resulting from climate change, and (7) implement a systematic review of existing and new programs and policies to assess climate change risks and opportunities. refs., figs

  1. Organizational change. Success factors and risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lundqvist, K.

    2002-01-01

    practice iterative, they will be repeated when formulating stepwise goals, making action plans implementing, monitoring and reflecting over what has been achieved. This will develop organizational change competence. The phases are over-lapping. Not only one, but several processes are going on in different phases. The on-going change processes have to be coordinated and synchronized. The safety issues cannot be separated from other organizational issues. All organizational changes have to be synchronized. Issues of competence and staffing have to be continuously analyzed. The motivation of the staff will be effected in the beginning of a change process. Participation is a key to success. The work organization must be continuously developed. 'Just in time'- thinking can be in conflict with 'just in case'- thinking in high-risk environments. Under manning. Temporary staff. Outsourcing. A recommended way of preparing for change is to engage all the staff in the development of a company strategy for change

  2. In Brief: Refugee numbers could increase due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zielinski, Sarah

    2007-05-01

    Climate change could push the number of refugees globally to more than one billion by 2050, according to a new report from the British charity Christian Aid. Currently, there are about 155 million `internally displaced persons' worldwide, driven from their homes due to conflict, ethnic persecution, or natural disasters. The addition of climate change and growing population numbers could exacerbate these ongoing problems. In the report, Mali is presented as a case study where ongoing climate change is forcing farmers to find other ways to feed their families; one result is an increased number of people attempting to migrate to Europe. The report calls on rich nations to devote US$100 billion each year to help poor people adapt to changing weather patterns. The report, ``Human tide: the real migration crisis,'' is available at http://www.christian-aid.org.uk/indepth/705caweekreport/

  3. Fat-tailed risk about climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, In Chang; Tol, Richard S.J.; Hofkes, Marjan W.

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the role of emissions control in welfare maximization under fat-tailed risk about climate change. We provide a classification of fat tails and discuss the effect of fat-tailed risk on climate policy. One of the main findings is that emissions control may prevent the “strong” tail-effect from arising, at least under some conditions such as bounded temperature increases, low risk aversion, low damage costs, and bounded utility function. More specifically, the fat-tailed risk with respect to a climate parameter does not necessarily lead to an unbounded carbon tax. In this case, the basic principle of cost-benefit analysis maintains its applicability. - Highlights: • A fat tail is classified and the tail effect on climate policy is discussed. • The optimal carbon tax is not necessarily unbounded. • The basic principle of cost-benefit analysis maintains its applicability. • This is a numerical confirmation of the recent theoretical research.

  4. The effects of EU agricultural policy changes on farmers' risk attitudes

    OpenAIRE

    Phoebe Koundouri; Marita Laukkanen; Sami Myyrä; Céline Nauges

    2009-01-01

    This analysis utilises a model of production under risk estimated on Finnish farm-level data to measure farmers' risk attitudes in a changing policy environment. We find evidence of heterogeneous risk preferences among farmers, as well as notable changes over time in farmers' degree of risk aversion. This result is due to the increase in the non-random part of farm income generated by the policy change after Finland's European Union accession. The analysis confirms the assertion that agricult...

  5. The Evaluation of Climate Change Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin POPESCU

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, it is acknowledged that climatic changes represent a serious threat for the environment and, so, this problem has been approached at numerous conferences, conventions and summits. The climate is strongly influenced by the changes in the atmospheric concentrations of certain gases that hold the solar radiations on the Earth’s surface (the greenhouse effect. The water vapors and the carbon dioxide (CO2 present in the atmosphere have always generated a natural greenhouse effect, without which the Earth surface would be 33o C lower than it is today. Other greenhouse gases are: methane (CH4, nitrogen protoxide (N2O, and the halogenated compounds such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs. During the last hundred years, man’s activity has led to the increase of the atmospheric concentration of the greenhouse gases and of other pollutants, its consequence being the increase of the average global temperature. Although it has not been calculated exactly how much of this warming can be attributed to the greenhouse gases, there is evidence that human activity contributes to global warming. The main causes leading to the accentuation of the greenhouse effect are the burning of the fossil fuels, deforestations, cement production, waste disposal, refrigeration etc. The climatic changes triggered by the greenhouse gases will have consequences that have already made themselves visible, causing: the increase of the sea level and the possible flooding of the low areas; the melting of the icecap; the modification of the precipitations regime, with consequences like the increase of the floods and droughts frequency; changes in the occurrence of climatic extremes, especially in the occurrence of the high, extreme temperatures. All these will have a direct impact on ecosystems, health, some key economic sectors such as agriculture and on water resources.

  6. Energy drink consumption and increased risk for alcohol dependence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arria, Amelia M; Caldeira, Kimberly M; Kasperski, Sarah J; Vincent, Kathryn B; Griffiths, Roland R; O'Grady, Kevin E

    2011-02-01

    Energy drinks are highly caffeinated beverages that are increasingly consumed by young adults. Prior research has established associations between energy drink use and heavier drinking and alcohol-related problems among college students. This study investigated the extent to which energy drink use might pose additional risk for alcohol dependence over and above that from known risk factors. Data were collected via personal interview from 1,097 fourth-year college students sampled from 1 large public university as part of an ongoing longitudinal study. Alcohol dependence was assessed according to DSM-IV criteria. After adjustment for the sampling design, 51.3%(wt) of students were classified as "low-frequency" energy drink users (1 to 51 days in the past year) and 10.1%(wt) as "high-frequency" users (≥52 days). Typical caffeine consumption varied widely depending on the brand consumed. Compared to the low-frequency group, high-frequency users drank alcohol more frequently (141.6 vs. 103.1 days) and in higher quantities (6.15 vs. 4.64 drinks/typical drinking day). High-frequency users were at significantly greater risk for alcohol dependence relative to both nonusers (AOR = 2.40, 95% CI = 1.27 to 4.56, p = 0.007) and low-frequency users (AOR = 1.86, 95% CI = 1.10, 3.14, p = 0.020), even after holding constant demographics, typical alcohol consumption, fraternity/sorority involvement, depressive symptoms, parental history of alcohol/drug problems, and childhood conduct problems. Low-frequency energy drink users did not differ from nonusers on their risk for alcohol dependence. Weekly or daily energy drink consumption is strongly associated with alcohol dependence. Further research is warranted to understand the possible mechanisms underlying this association. College students who frequently consume energy drinks represent an important target population for alcohol prevention. Copyright © 2010 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

  7. Climate change and malaria risk: An integrated modelling approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martens, W.J.M.; Rotmans, J.; Niessen, L.W. (RIVM Global Modelling and Sustainable Development Group and Environmental Forecasting Bureau, Bilthoven (Netherlands))

    1994-05-01

    In order to assess the impact of an anthropogenic climate change on the transmission of malaria, an integrated assessment model has been developed. In the model the direct effects of a change in temperature and precipitation on the transmission potential of a mosquito population are assessed by means of the vectorial capacity (the number of potentially infected contacts inflicted by the mosquito population per infectious person per day) and the related critical mosquito density. The most important parameters of the vectorial capacity and critical mosquito density are: the longevity of the mosquito, the frequency of taking blood meals from humans and the duration of the development of the parasite inside the mosquito. The effect of a human-induced climate change on human health is evaluated by assessing the change in malaria prevalence and disease burden. A sustainable development index, which is an aggregate of an environmental pressure indicator, a health indicator and a socio-economic development indicator is introduced and discussed. Such an index can be used to determine whether future projections are sustainable. The simulation results indicate a worldwide increase of potential malaria risk and an extension of the areas conducive to malaria transmission. In the endemic malarious areas of the tropics and subtropics, malaria prevalence and consequently the number of years of healthy life lost due to malaria may increase. The rate of temperature change is also expected to exceed the recommended target level of 0.1[degree]C per decade. In non-malarious areas the risk of introduction of malaria associated with imported cases of malaria increases to some extent as a result of the increasing importance of modern transport systems (e.g. air travel) in introducing malaria into receptive areas. However, sound interpretation of the change in malaria risk as simulated must be performed within the framework of local conditions.

  8. Heightened fire risk in Indonesia in response to increasing temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, K.; Baethgen, W.; Verchot, L. V.; Gutierrez-Velez, V.; Pinedo-Vasquez, M.

    2016-12-01

    In Indonesia, drought driven fires occur typically during the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as those of 1997 and 2015 that resulted in months-long hazardous atmospheric pollution levels in Equatorial Asia and record greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless, anomalously active fire seasons have also been observed in non-drought years. In this work, we investigated whether fires are impacted by temperature anomalies and if so, if the responses differ under contrasting precipitation regimes. Our findings show that when the July-October dry-season is anomalously dry, the sensitivity of fires to temperature anomalies is similar regardless of the sign of the anomalies. In contrast, in wet condition, fire risk increases sharply when the dry season is anomalously warm. We also present a characterization of near-term regional climate projections over the next few decades and the implications of continuing global temperature increase in future fire probability in Indonesia.

  9. Climate change disproportionately increases herbivore over plant or parasitoid biomass.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio de Sassi

    Full Text Available All living organisms are linked through trophic relationships with resources and consumers, the balance of which determines overall ecosystem stability and functioning. Ecological research has identified a multitude of mechanisms that contribute to this balance, but ecologists are now challenged with predicting responses to global environmental changes. Despite a wealth of studies highlighting likely outcomes for specific mechanisms and subsets of a system (e.g., plants, plant-herbivore or predator-prey interactions, studies comparing overall effects of changes at multiple trophic levels are rare. We used a combination of experiments in a grassland system to test how biomass at the plant, herbivore and natural enemy (parasitoid levels responds to the interactive effects of two key global change drivers: warming and nitrogen deposition. We found that higher temperatures and elevated nitrogen generated a multitrophic community that was increasingly dominated by herbivores. Moreover, we found synergistic effects of the drivers on biomass, which differed across trophic levels. Both absolute and relative biomass of herbivores increased disproportionately to that of plants and, in particular, parasitoids, which did not show any significant response to the treatments. Reduced parasitism rates mirrored the profound biomass changes in the system. These findings carry important implications for the response of biota to environmental changes; reduced top-down regulation is likely to coincide with an increase in herbivory, which in turn is likely to cascade to other fundamental ecosystem processes. Our findings also provide multitrophic data to support the general concern of increasing herbivore pest outbreaks in a warmer world.

  10. Quantifying the economic risks of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz, Delavane; Moore, Frances

    2017-11-01

    Understanding the value of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions matters for policy decisions and climate risk management, but quantification is challenging because of the complex interactions and uncertainties in the Earth and human systems, as well as normative ethical considerations. Current modelling approaches use damage functions to parameterize a simplified relationship between climate variables, such as temperature change, and economic losses. Here we review and synthesize the limitations of these damage functions and describe how incorporating impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research advances and empirical findings could substantially improve damage modelling and the robustness of social cost of carbon values produced. We discuss the opportunities and challenges associated with integrating these research advances into cost-benefit integrated assessment models, with guidance for future work.

  11. Built cultural heritage facing climate change risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lefevre, Roger-Alexandre; Martin, Daniel

    2011-01-01

    The built cultural heritage would face important risks in the frame of climate change. They are well identified by the major international organizations, but only in a qualitative manner, and mainly refer on the action of water or on its absence. The most active research is supported by the European Commission. The results obtained by the European project 'Noah's Ark' are the most important at the day. Dose-Response Functions with predictive climate models are used to produce vulnerability maps at a European scale of which one example is presented. The recommendations of the Council of Europe for policy makers and researchers are developed as a conclusion. Three case studies are synthesized in annex of this article: Venice, London and Paris. (authors)

  12. Modifiable risk factors for increased arterial stiffness in outpatient nephrology.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Usama Elewa

    Full Text Available Arterial stiffness, as measured by pulse wave velocity (PWV, is an independent predictor of cardiovascular events and mortality. Arterial stiffness increases with age. However, modifiable risk factors such as smoking, BP and salt intake also impact on PWV. The finding of modifiable risk factors may lead to the identification of treatable factors, and, thus, is of interest to practicing nephrologist. We have now studied the prevalence and correlates of arterial stiffness, assessed by PWV, in 191 patients from nephrology outpatient clinics in order to identify modifiable risk factors for arterial stiffness that may in the future guide therapeutic decision-making. PWV was above normal levels for age in 85/191 (44.5% patients. Multivariate analysis showed that advanced age, systolic BP, diabetes mellitus, serum uric acid and calcium polystyrene sulfonate therapy or calcium-containing medication were independent predictors of PWV. A new parameter, Delta above upper limit of normal PWV (Delta PWV was defined to decrease the weight of age on PWV values. Delta PWV was calculated as (measured PWV - (upper limit of the age-adjusted PWV values for the general population. Mean±SD Delta PWV was 0.76±1.60 m/sec. In multivariate analysis, systolic blood pressure, active smoking and calcium polystyrene sulfonate therapy remained independent predictors of higher delta PWV, while age, urinary potassium and beta blocker therapy were independent predictors of lower delta PWV. In conclusion, arterial stiffness was frequent in nephrology outpatients. Systolic blood pressure, smoking, serum uric acid, calcium-containing medications, potassium metabolism and non-use of beta blockers are modifiable factors associated with increased arterial stiffness in Nephrology outpatients.

  13. Increased physical activity decreases periodontitis risk in men

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merchant, Anwar T.; Pitiphat, Waranuch; Rimm, Eric B.; Joshipura, Kaumudi

    2003-01-01

    Background: Increased physical activity improves insulin sensitivity and glucose metabolism, and may therefore affect incidence of periodontitis. Methods: We studied the association of physical activity, walking and periodontitis in 39,461 male, US based, health professionals, 40-75 years old at baseline, more than half of whom were dentists, being followed up continuously since 1986. Participants were free of periodontitis, coronary heart disease and stroke at the start of follow-up. Physical activity and periodontitis were measured by validated questionnaires (expressed in metabolic equivalents - METs); the first report of professionally diagnosed periodontitis was considered a case. Results: Periodontitis risk decreased by 3% for every 10-MET increase in average physical activity after adjustment for age, smoking, diabetes, BMI, alcohol consumption and total calories (RR = 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.99). The inverse trend remained significant in the categorical analysis. Compared to men in the lowest quintile of physical activity, those in the highest quintile had a 13% lower risk of periodontitis (RR = 0.87; 95% CI: 0.76-1.01, p-value, test for trend = 0.02). In a sub-sample of men with radiographs (n = 137) the physically active had less average bone loss (β = -0.29, p-value = 0.03) after multivariate adjustment compared to those inactive. Conclusions: In this large-scale prospective study, we found an inverse, linear association between sustained physical activity and periodontitis independent of known risk factors. The benefits of a physically active lifestyle may extend to periodontal health

  14. Are recreational SCUBA divers with asthma at increased risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ustrup, Amalie S; Ulrik, Charlotte S

    2017-10-01

    Asthma has traditionally been regarded as a contraindication to self-contained underwater breathing apparatus (SCUBA) diving, although large numbers of patients with asthma dive. The aim of the review is to provide an update on current knowledge on potential disease-related hazards in SCUBA divers with asthma. Systematic literature review based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Seven studies met the criteria for inclusion in the review (comprising a total of 560 subjects). Five studies reported an increased risk for developing diving-related injuries in divers with asthma, based on case reports (n = 1), case history combined with objective assessment (n = 1), and dives and/or simulated dives (n = 3). The remaining studies (n = 2) were based on self-reported diving habits in divers suffering from asthma, obtained from anonymous questionnaires in diving magazines, reported no diving-related injuries among respondents. Due to limited evidence it is difficult to draw valid conclusions, but there are indications that recreational divers with asthma may be at increased risk for diving-related injuries compared to non-asthmatic divers. However, it is of at most importance to obtain further evidence from large-scale, well-designed studies.

  15. Increased sexually transmitted infection incidence in a low risk population: identifying the risk factors.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Shiely, Frances

    2010-04-01

    Between 1994 and 2006, the incidence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in Ireland has increased by over 300%. Recent literature would suggest that this figure is an underestimation of the true scale of infection. Our objective was to determine the risk factors associated with STI diagnosis in a population with a rapidly increasing STI incidence.

  16. Lifestyle Risk Factors Increase the Risk of Hospitalization for Sciatica: Findings of Four Prospective Cohort Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiri, Rahman; Euro, Ulla; Heliövaara, Markku; Hirvensalo, Mirja; Husgafvel-Pursiainen, Kirsti; Karppinen, Jaro; Lahti, Jouni; Rahkonen, Ossi; Raitakari, Olli T; Solovieva, Svetlana; Yang, Xiaolin; Viikari-Juntura, Eira; Lallukka, Tea

    2017-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to assess the effects of lifestyle risk factors on the risk of hospitalization for sciatica and to determine whether overweight or obesity modifies the effect of leisure-time physical activity on hospitalization for sciatica. We included 4 Finnish prospective cohort studies (Health 2000 Survey, Mobile Clinic Survey, Helsinki Health Study, and Young Finns Study) consisting of 34,589 participants and 1259 hospitalizations for sciatica during 12 to 30 years of follow-up. Sciatica was based on hospital discharge register data. We conducted a random-effects individual participant data meta-analysis. After adjustment for confounding factors, current smoking at baseline increased the risk of subsequent hospitalization for sciatica by 33% (95% confidence interval [CI], 13%-56%), whereas past smokers were no longer at increased risk. Obesity defined by body mass index increased the risk of hospitalization for sciatica by 36% (95% CI 7%-74%), and abdominal obesity defined by waist circumference increased the risk by 41% (95% CI 3%-93%). Walking or cycling to work reduced the risk of hospitalization for sciatica by 33% (95% CI 4%-53%), and the effect was independent of body weight and other leisure activities, while other types of leisure activities did not have a statistically significant effect. Smoking and obesity increase the risk of hospitalization for sciatica, whereas walking or cycling to work protects against hospitalization for sciatica. Walking and cycling can be recommended for the prevention of sciatica in the general population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. BMI increase through puberty and adolescence is associated with risk of adult stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohlsson, Claes; Bygdell, Maria; Sondén, Arvid; Jern, Christina; Rosengren, Annika; Kindblom, Jenny M

    2017-07-25

    To evaluate the contribution of prepubertal childhood body mass index (BMI) and BMI change through puberty and adolescence, 2 distinct developmental BMI parameters, for risk of adult stroke in men. In this population-based study in Gothenburg, Sweden, men born in 1945-1961 with information on both childhood BMI at age 8 and BMI change through puberty and adolescence (BMI at age 20-BMI at age 8) were followed until December 2013 (n = 37,669). Information on stroke events was retrieved from high-quality national registers (918 first stroke events, 672 ischemic stroke events [IS], 207 intracerebral hemorrhage events [ICH]). BMI increase through puberty and adolescence (hazard ratio [HR] 1.21 per SD increase; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14-1.28), but not childhood BMI, was independently associated with risk of adult stroke. Subanalyses revealed that BMI increase through puberty and adolescence was associated with both IS (HR per SD increase 1.19; 95% CI 1.11-1.28) and ICH (HR per SD increase 1.29; 95% CI 1.15-1.46). High BMI increase during puberty was strongly associated with increased risk of adult hypertension (odds ratio per SD increase 1.35; 95% CI 1.32-1.39). BMI increase through puberty and adolescence is associated with risk of adult IS and ICH in men. We propose that greater BMI increases during puberty contribute to increased risk of adult stroke at least partly via increased blood pressure. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of the American Academy of Neurology.

  18. Thyroid cancer risk is not increased in diabetic patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chin-Hsiao Tseng

    -inflammatory drugs might be associated with a significantly lower risk. CONCLUSIONS: There is a lack of an overall association between diabetes and thyroid cancer, but patients with diabetes duration <5 years have a significantly lower risk. Sulfonylurea may increase the risk of thyroid cancer.

  19. White matter changes and word finding failures with increasing age.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel A Stamatakis

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Increasing life expectancy necessitates the better understanding of the neurophysiological underpinnings of age-related cognitive changes. The majority of research examining structural-cognitive relationships in aging focuses on the role of age-related changes to grey matter integrity. In the current study, we examined the relationship between age-related changes in white matter and language production. More specifically, we concentrated on word-finding failures, which increase with age.We used Diffusion tensor MRI (a technique used to image, in vivo, the diffusion of water molecules in brain tissue to relate white matter integrity to measures of successful and unsuccessful picture naming. Diffusion tensor images were used to calculate Fractional Anisotropy (FA images. FA is considered to be a measure of white matter organization/integrity. FA images were related to measures of successful picture naming and to word finding failures using voxel-based linear regression analyses. Successful naming rates correlated positively with white matter integrity across a broad range of regions implicated in language production. However, word finding failure rates correlated negatively with a more restricted region in the posterior aspect of superior longitudinal fasciculus.The use of DTI-MRI provides evidence for the relationship between age-related white matter changes in specific language regions and word finding failures in old age.

  20. Physical activity, obesity, weight change, and risk of atrial fibrillation: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huxley, Rachel R; Misialek, Jeffrey R; Agarwal, Sunil K; Loehr, Laura R; Soliman, Elsayed Z; Chen, Lin Y; Alonso, Alvaro

    2014-08-01

    Physical activity (PA) has previously been suggested to attenuate the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) conferred by excess body weight and weight gain. We prospectively examined the relationship between body size, weight change, and level of PA in a biracial cohort of middle-aged men and women. Baseline characteristics on risk factor levels were obtained on 14 219 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. AF incidence was ascertained from 1987 to 2009. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the associations between body mass index, waist circumference, relative weight change, and PA level with incident AF. During follow-up, there were 1775 cases of incident AF. Body mass index and waist circumference were positively associated with AF as was weight loss/gain of >5% initial body weight. An ideal level of PA had a small protective effect on AF risk and partially attenuated the risk of AF associated with excess weight in men but not women: compared with men with a normal body mass index, the risk of AF in obese men with an ideal, intermediate, and poor level of PA at baseline was increased by 37%, 129%, and 156% (Pinteraction=0.04). During follow-up, PA did not modify the association between weight gain and risk of AF. Obesity and extreme weight change are risk factors for incident AF, whereas being physically active is associated with a small reduction in risk. In men only, being physically active offset some, but not all, of the risk incurred with excess body weight. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

  1. Are cardiac surgical patients at increased risk of difficult intubation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deepak Prakash Borde

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aims: Safe airway management is the cornerstone of contemporary anaesthesia practice, and difficult intubation (DI remains a major cause of anaesthetic morbidity and mortality. The surgical category, particularly cardiac surgery as a risk factor for DI has not been studied extensively. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis whether cardiac surgical patients are at increased risk of DI. Methods: During the study, 627 patients (329 cardiac and 298 non-cardiac surgical were enrolled. Pre-operative demographic and other variables associated with DI were assessed. Patients with Cormack Lehane grade III and IV or use of bougie in Cormack grade II were defined as DI. The incidence of anticipated and unanticipated DI was assessed. Factors associated with DI were described using univariate and multivariate logistic regression models. Results: The overall incidence of DI was 122/627 (19.46%. The incidence of DI was higher in cardiac surgery patients (24% as compared to non-cardiac surgery patients (14.4% P = 0.002. On multivariate analysis, factors independently associated with DI were greater age, male sex, higher Mallampati grade, and anticipated DI, but not cardiac surgery. The incidence of unanticipated DI was 48.1% and 53.4% in cardiac and non-cardiac surgery patients, respectively. Conclusion: Although there was a higher incidence of DI in cardiac surgical patients, cardiac surgery is not an independent risk factor for DI. Rather, other factors play more important role. About half of the DI both in cardiac and non-cardiac surgeries were unanticipated.

  2. Increased risk of hydrocephalus in long-term dialysis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, I-Kuan; Lin, Cheng-Li; Cheng, Yu-Kai; Chou, Che-Yi; Liang, Chih-Chia; Yen, Tzung-Hai; Sung, Fung-Chang

    2016-05-01

    The risk of hydrocephalus in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients on dialysis has not been studied in depth. Using Taiwan National Health Insurance claims data, we identified 29 684 incident ESRD patients from 2000 to 2010, including 10 030 peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients and 19 654 hemodialysis (HD) patients. The control cohort consisted of 118 736 people randomly selected from those without kidney disease, frequency matched with ESRD patients by age, sex and index year. We also established propensity score-matched cohorts with 10 014 PD and 10 014 HD patients. The incidence rates and hazard ratios (HRs) of hydrocephalus were calculated until the end of 2011. Incidence rates of hydrocephalus were greater in HD and PD patients than in controls (8.44 and 11.0 versus 4.11 per 10 000 person-years, respectively), with an adjusted HR of 1.86 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.43-2.41] for all ESRD patients compared with controls. A higher proportion of hydrocephalus patients underwent surgical bypass to relieve hydrocephalus in ESRD patients than controls, 40.7% (46/113) versus 24.5% (67/273), with an adjusted odds ratio of 2.11 (95% CI 1.33-3.36). Compared with controls, the adjusted HRs of communicating hydrocephalus for HD and PD patients were 1.77 (95% CI 1.22-2.55) and 2.51 (95% CI 1.61-3.89), respectively. The propensity score-matched analysis showed an HR of 0.72 (95% CI 0.42-1.23) for hydrocephalus in HD patients compared with PD patients. Patients with ESRD are at an increased risk of hydrocephalus. The risk difference between HD and PD patients is not significant. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

  3. Human neuronal changes in brain edema and increased intracranial pressure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faragó, Nóra; Kocsis, Ágnes Katalin; Braskó, Csilla; Lovas, Sándor; Rózsa, Márton; Baka, Judith; Kovács, Balázs; Mikite, Katalin; Szemenyei, Viktor; Molnár, Gábor; Ozsvár, Attila; Oláh, Gáspár; Piszár, Ildikó; Zvara, Ágnes; Patócs, Attila; Barzó, Pál; Puskás, László G; Tamás, Gábor

    2016-08-04

    Functional and molecular changes associated with pathophysiological conditions are relatively easily detected based on tissue samples collected from patients. Population specific cellular responses to disease might remain undiscovered in samples taken from organs formed by a multitude of cell types. This is particularly apparent in the human cerebral cortex composed of a yet undefined number of neuron types with a potentially different involvement in disease processes. We combined cellular electrophysiology, anatomy and single cell digital PCR in human neurons identified in situ for the first time to assess mRNA expression and corresponding functional changes in response to edema and increased intracranial pressure. In single pyramidal cells, mRNA copy numbers of AQP1, AQP3, HMOX1, KCNN4, SCN3B and SOD2 increased, while CACNA1B, CRH decreased in edema. In addition, single pyramidal cells increased the copy number of AQP1, HTR5A and KCNS1 mRNAs in response to increased intracranial pressure. In contrast to pyramidal cells, AQP1, HMOX1and KCNN4 remained unchanged in single cell digital PCR performed on fast spiking cells in edema. Corroborating single cell digital PCR results, pharmacological and immunohistochemical results also suggested the presence of KCNN4 encoding the α-subunit of KCa3.1 channels in edema on pyramidal cells, but not on interneurons. We measured the frequency of spontaneous EPSPs on pyramidal cells in both pathophysiological conditions and on fast spiking interneurons in edema and found a significant decrease in each case, which was accompanied by an increase in input resistances on both cell types and by a drop in dendritic spine density on pyramidal cells consistent with a loss of excitatory synapses. Our results identify anatomical and/or physiological changes in human pyramidal and fast spiking cells in edema and increased intracranial pressure revealing cell type specific quantitative changes in gene expression. Some of the edema/increased

  4. Risk perception, risk management and safety assessment: what can governments do to increase public confidence in their vaccine system?

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonald, Noni E; Smith, Jennifer; Appleton, Mary

    2012-09-01

    For decades vaccine program managers and governments have devoted many resources to addressing public vaccine concerns, vaccine risk perception, risk management and safety assessment. Despite ever growing evidence that vaccines are safe and effective, public concerns continue. Education and evidence based scientific messages have not ended concerns. How can governments and programs more effectively address the public's vaccine concerns and increase confidence in the vaccine safety system? Vaccination hesitation has been attributed to concerns about vaccine safety, perceptions of high vaccine risks and low disease risk and consequences. Even when the public believes vaccines are important for protection many still have concerns about vaccine safety. This overview explores how heuristics affect public perception of vaccines and vaccine safety, how the public finds and uses vaccine information, and then proposes strategies for changes in the approach to vaccine safety communications. Facts and evidence confirming the safety of vaccines are not enough. Vaccine beliefs and behaviours must be shaped. This will require a shift in the what, when, how and why of vaccine risk and benefit communication content and practice. A change to a behavioural change strategy such as the WHO COMBI program that has been applied to disease eradication efforts is suggested. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  5. Flood Risk in the Danube basin under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröter, Kai; Wortmann, Michel; del Rocio Rivas Lopez, Maria; Liersch, Stefan; Viet Nguyen, Dung; Hardwick, Stephen; Hattermann, Fred

    2017-04-01

    The projected increase in temperature is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle, and thus more intense precipitation is likely to increase hydro-meteorological extremes and flood hazard. However to assess the future dynamics of hazard and impact induced by these changes it is necessary to consider extreme events and to take a spatially differentiated perspective. The Future Danube Model is a multi-hazard and risk model suite for the Danube region which has been developed in the OASIS project. The model comprises modules for estimating potential perils from heavy precipitation, heat-waves, floods, droughts, and damage risk considering hydro-climatic extremes under current and climate change conditions. Web-based open Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology allows customers to graphically analyze and overlay perils and other spatial information such as population density or assets exposed. The Future Danube Model combines modules for weather generation, hydrological and hydrodynamic processes, and supports risk assessment and adaptation planning support. This contribution analyses changes in flood hazard in the Danube basin and in flood risk for the German part of the Danube basin. As climate change input, different regionalized climate ensemble runs of the newest IPCC generation are used, the so-called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). They are delivered by the CORDEX initiative (Coordinated Downscaling Experiments). The CORDEX data sample is extended using the statistical weather generator (IMAGE) in order to also consider extreme events. Two time slices are considered: near future 2020-2049 and far future 2050-2079. This data provides the input for the hydrological, hydraulic and flood loss model chain. Results for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 indicate an increase in intensity and frequency of peak discharges and thus in flood hazard for many parts of the Danube basin.

  6. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and influencing factors: a study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Dang, Hoa; Li, Elton; Nuberg, Ian; Bruwer, Johan

    2014-08-01

    Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers' lives. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers' perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers' perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family's lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government's, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.

  7. Farmers' Perceived Risks of Climate Change and Influencing Factors: A Study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Dang, Hoa; Li, Elton; Nuberg, Ian; Bruwer, Johan

    2014-08-01

    Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers' lives. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers' perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers' perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family's lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government's, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.

  8. Chemotherapy decreases epiphyseal strength and increases bone fracture risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Leeuwen, Barbara L; Verkerke, Gerard J; Hartel, Rene M; Sluiter, Willem J; Kamps, Willem A; Jansen, Henk W B; Hoekstra, Harald J

    2003-08-01

    To establish the effect of three frequently used chemotherapeutic agents in childhood cancer on the skeleton, growing male Wistar rats were studied. Treatment with doxorubicin, methotrexate, and cisplatin reduces the proximal tibial growth plate shear strength because of a decreased surface area and maximum shear stress. After treatment the bone fracture risk of the tibia and femur is increased because of decreased bending resistance. Doxorubicin and cisplatin reduce the maximum shear stress of the proximal tibial growth plate, none of the chemotherapeutic agents inhibit bone mineralization. These effects are caused by treatment-induced malnutrition and the accompanying weight reduction and a direct effect of the chemotherapeutic agents on the skeleton. The current study confirmed the importance of preventing malnutrition during chemotherapeutic treatment in view of possible skeletal complications. During followup of children treated with chemotherapy, attention should be given to signs and symptoms suggestive of such complications.

  9. Early menarche is associated with increased risk of asthma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lieberoth, Sofie; Gade, Elisabeth; Kyvik, Kirsten Ohm

    2015-01-01

    AIM: To examine the association between early menarche and risk of post-menarcheal asthma. METHODS: Using data from two multidisciplinary questionnaire surveys, conducted eight years apart, we prospectively studied 10,648 female twins, 12-41 years of age, from the nationwide Danish Twin Registry....... Early menarche was defined as menarche before 12 years of age. We performed a cohort analysis and a co-twin control analysis including twin pairs discordant for incident asthma. RESULTS: Early menarche was observed in 9.3% of the individuals. The eight-year cumulative incidence of asthma was higher...... in girls with early menarche compared to girls without early menarche (7.4 vs. 4.5%), OR = 1.71 (1.31-2.22), p asthma was increased by 8% (1-15%), p = 0...

  10. Drugs of abuse and increased risk of psychosis development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gururajan, Anand; Manning, Elizabeth E; Klug, Maren; van den Buuse, Maarten

    2012-12-01

    There is considerable evidence to suggest that the abuse of illicit drugs, particularly cannabis and methamphetamine, has aetiological roles in the pathogenesis of psychosis and schizophrenia. Factors that may increase susceptibility to the propsychotic effects of these drugs include the age at which the abuse starts as well as family history of genetic polymorphisms relevant to the pathophysiology of this disorder. However, the neurobiological mechanisms involved in drug abuse-associated psychosis remain largely unclear. This paper presents an overview of the available evidence, including clinical, animal model, and molecular studies, with a focus on brain regions and neurotransmitters systems, such as dopamine and glutamate, previously implicated in psychosis. It is clear that further studies are urgently needed to provide a greater insight into the mechanisms that mediate the long-term and neurodevelopmental effects of cannabis and methamphetamine. A dialogue between basic science and clinical research may help to identify at-risk individuals and novel pathways for treatment and prevention.

  11. Are recreational SCUBA divers with asthma at increased risk?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ustrup, Amalie; Ulrik, Charlotte Suppli

    2017-01-01

    disease-related hazards in SUBA-divers with asthma. METHODS: Systematic literature review based on the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. RESULTS: Seven studies met the criteria for inclusion in the present review (comprising a total of 560 subjects...... in divers suffering from asthma, obtained from anonymous questionnaires in diving magazines, reported no diving-related injuries among respondents. CONCLUSION: Due to limited evidence difficult to draw valid conclusions, but there are indications that recreational divers with asthma may be at increased risk...... for diving-related injuries compared to non-asthmatic divers. However, it is of outmost importance to obtain further evidence from large-scale, well-designed studies....

  12. Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, Marshall B; Miguel, Edward; Satyanath, Shanker; Dykema, John A; Lobell, David B

    2009-12-08

    Armed conflict within nations has had disastrous humanitarian consequences throughout much of the world. Here we undertake the first comprehensive examination of the potential impact of global climate change on armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. We find strong historical linkages between civil war and temperature in Africa, with warmer years leading to significant increases in the likelihood of war. When combined with climate model projections of future temperature trends, this historical response to temperature suggests a roughly 54% increase in armed conflict incidence by 2030, or an additional 393,000 battle deaths if future wars are as deadly as recent wars. Our results suggest an urgent need to reform African governments' and foreign aid donors' policies to deal with rising temperatures.

  13. Polygenic Risk for Depression Increases Risk of Ischemic Stroke: From the Stroke Genetics Network Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia; Qi, Qibin; Dave, Tushar; Mitchell, Braxton D; Jackson, Rebecca D; Liu, Simin; Park, Ki; Salinas, Joel; Dunn, Erin C; Leira, Enrique C; Xu, Huichun; Ryan, Kathleen; Smoller, Jordan W

    2018-03-01

    Although depression is a risk factor for stroke in large prospective studies, it is unknown whether these conditions have a shared genetic basis. We applied a polygenic risk score (PRS) for major depressive disorder derived from European ancestry analyses by the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium to a genome-wide association study of ischemic stroke in the Stroke Genetics Network of National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke. Included in separate analyses were 12 577 stroke cases and 25 643 controls of European ancestry and 1353 cases and 2383 controls of African ancestry. We examined the association between depression PRS and ischemic stroke overall and with pathogenic subtypes using logistic regression analyses. The depression PRS was associated with higher risk of ischemic stroke overall in both European ( P =0.025) and African ancestry ( P =0.011) samples from the Stroke Genetics Network. Ischemic stroke risk increased by 3.0% (odds ratio, 1.03; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.05) for every 1 SD increase in PRS for those of European ancestry and by 8% (odds ratio, 1.08; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.13) for those of African ancestry. Among stroke subtypes, elevated risk of small artery occlusion was observed in both European and African ancestry samples. Depression PRS was also associated with higher risk of cardioembolic stroke in European ancestry and large artery atherosclerosis in African ancestry persons. Higher polygenic risk for major depressive disorder is associated with increased risk of ischemic stroke overall and with small artery occlusion. Additional associations with ischemic stroke subtypes differed by ancestry. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

  14. Increased Risk of Metabolic Syndrome in Patients with Vitiligo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ataş, Hatice; Gönül, Müzeyyen

    2017-05-05

    Inflammatory and immune processes can be triggered in vitiligo due to a decreased number of melanocytes and their anti-inflammatory effects. Because of the systemic nature of vitiligo, metabolic abnormalities such as insulin resistance and lipid profile disturbances as well as skin involvement may be observed in vitiligo. To investigate the association between metabolic syndrome and vitiligo. Case-control study. The demographic, clinical and laboratory features in the subjects were compared according to presence of vitiligo and metabolic syndrome [patients (n=63) vs. gender-age matched controls (n=65) and metabolic syndrome positive (n=38) vs. negative (n=90)]. A logistic regression analysis was also used. We identified metabolic syndrome in 24 (38.1%) subjects with vitiligo and 14 (21.5%) subjects without vitiligo (p=0.04). Active vitiligo, segmental vitiligo, an increased duration of vitiligo and an increased percentage in the affected body surface area were determined to be independent predictors of metabolic syndrome [activity of vitiligo: p=0.012, OR (95% CI)=64.4 (2.5-1672); type of vitiligo: p=0.007, OR (95% CI)=215.1 (4.3-10725.8); duration of vitiligo: p=0.03, OR (95% CI)=1.4 (1.1-2.0); percentage of affected body surface area: p=0.07, OR (95% CI)=1.2 (0.98-1.5)]. The risk of developing metabolic syndrome is increased in patients with vitiligo. The poor clinical features of vitiligo, such as active, extended and segmental vitiligo with an increased duration of time, are independent predictors for developing metabolic syndrome.

  15. Climate engineering and the risk of rapid climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ross, Andrew; Damon Matthews, H

    2009-01-01

    Recent research has highlighted risks associated with the use of climate engineering as a method of stabilizing global temperatures, including the possibility of rapid climate warming in the case of abrupt removal of engineered radiative forcing. In this study, we have used a simple climate model to estimate the likely range of temperature changes associated with implementation and removal of climate engineering. In the absence of climate engineering, maximum annual rates of warming ranged from 0.015 to 0.07 deg. C/year, depending on the model's climate sensitivity. Climate engineering resulted in much higher rates of warming, with the temperature change in the year following the removal of climate engineering ranging from 0.13 to 0.76 deg. C. High rates of temperature change were sustained for two decades following the removal of climate engineering; rates of change of 0.5 (0.3,0.1) deg. C/decade were exceeded over a 20 year period with 15% (75%, 100%) likelihood. Many ecosystems could be negatively affected by these rates of temperature change; our results suggest that climate engineering in the absence of deep emissions cuts could arguably constitute increased risk of dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system under the criteria laid out in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

  16. Projections of increased and decreased dengue incidence under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C R; Mincham, G; Faddy, H; Viennet, E; Ritchie, S A; Harley, D

    2016-10-01

    Dengue is the world's most prevalent mosquito-borne disease, with more than 200 million people each year becoming infected. We used a mechanistic virus transmission model to determine whether climate warming would change dengue transmission in Australia. Using two climate models each with two carbon emission scenarios, we calculated future dengue epidemic potential for the period 2046-2064. Using the ECHAM5 model, decreased dengue transmission was predicted under the A2 carbon emission scenario, whereas some increases are likely under the B1 scenario. Dengue epidemic potential may decrease under climate warming due to mosquito breeding sites becoming drier and mosquito survivorship declining. These results contradict most previous studies that use correlative models to show increased dengue transmission under climate warming. Dengue epidemiology is determined by a complex interplay between climatic, human host, and pathogen factors. It is therefore naive to assume a simple relationship between climate and incidence, and incorrect to state that climate warming will uniformly increase dengue transmission, although in general the health impacts of climate change will be negative.

  17. Women referred for occupational risk assessment in pregnancy have no increased risk of adverse obstetric outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bidstrup, Signe Brøker; Kaerlev, Linda; Thulstrup, Ane Marie

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Our aim was to study the association between pregnant women's referral status for occupational risk assessment, and their risk of preterm delivery (.... Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Calculations were adjusted for the mother's age at delivery, parity, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, smoking, and in supplementary analyses for year of birth. RESULTS: Referred women gave birth to children.......72-1.17). CONCLUSION: The women who are referred for occupational risk assessment at two large occupational university departments are not at an increased risk of preterm birth or of delivering low birth weight children. This may reflect that reproductive hazards in Danish workplaces are limited and...

  18. Large diurnal temperature range increases bird sensitivity to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briga, Michael; Verhulst, Simon

    2015-11-13

    Climate variability is changing on multiple temporal scales, and little is known of the consequences of increases in short-term variability, particularly in endotherms. Using mortality data with high temporal resolution of zebra finches living in large outdoor aviaries (5 years, 359.220 bird-days), we show that mortality rate increases almost two-fold per 1°C increase in diurnal temperature range (DTR). Interestingly, the DTR effect differed between two groups with low versus high experimentally manipulated foraging costs, reflecting a typical laboratory 'easy' foraging environment and a 'hard' semi-natural environment respectively. DTR increased mortality on days with low minimum temperature in the easy foraging environment, but on days with high minimum temperature in the semi-natural environment. Thus, in a natural environment DTR effects will become increasingly important in a warming world, something not detectable in an 'easy' laboratory environment. These effects were particularly apparent at young ages. Critical time window analyses showed that the effect of DTR on mortality is delayed up to three months, while effects of minimum temperature occurred within a week. These results show that daily temperature variability can substantially impact the population viability of endothermic species.

  19. Risk Factors for Increased Severity of Paediatric Medication Administration Errors

    OpenAIRE

    Sears, Kim; Goodman, William M.

    2012-01-01

    Patients' risks from medication errors are widely acknowledged. Yet not all errors, if they occur, have the same risks for severe consequences. Facing resource constraints, policy makers could prioritize factors having the greatest severe–outcome risks. This study assists such prioritization by identifying work-related risk factors most clearly associated with more severe consequences. Data from three Canadian paediatric centres were collected, without identifiers, on actual or potential erro...

  20. Vulnerability of boreal zone for increased nitrogen loading due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rankinen, Katri; Holmberg, Maria

    2016-04-01

    The observed rapid warming of the boreal zone that has been observed in Finland (0.14 °C by decade) is expected to continue (http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/). Also precipitation is assumed to increase in future. These changes may increase nitrogen (N) loading from terrestrial environments to water bodies by accelerating soil organic matter decay and by increasing runoff. Nitrogen is limiting nutrient in the Baltic Sea but also in some lakes, so increased loading may increase eutrophication. Further, high nitrate levels in drinking water may cause methaemoglobin anemia for humans, and nitrate is also connected to increased risk of diabetes and cancer. Thus EU has set upper limits to nitrate concentration in drinking water. MONIMET (LIFE12 ENV/FI/000409) is a project about Climate Change Indicators and Vulnerability of Boreal Zone. We simulated N loading from two boreal catchments to the receiving waters by the dynamic, catchment scale model INCA in different climate change and land use change scenarios. We calculated land use specific N loading values for these two well monitored catchments that belong to the LTER (The Long Term Ecological Research) monitoring network. We upscaled the results to the larger river basin, combining them with the information on drinking water supply to assess the vulnerability. Specific emphasis was paid on nitrate concentrations in soil water and groundwater. In general, land use change has higher influence on N loading than increase in precipitation and temperature alone. Peak runoff will sift from snow melting peak in April to late autumn and winter. Growing season will become longer allowing more efficient vegetation uptake of nutrients. Small groundwater aquifers and private wells in the middle of agricultural fields will be in the risk of increased N concentrations, if agricultural N loading increases due to changes in agricultural patterns and land use change.

  1. Climate Change - A New Risk Reality for Utility Companies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nelson, William R.; Cramer, Espen; Torstad, Elisabeth; Rosnes, Olafr

    2010-09-15

    Climate change introduces new and complex risk factors affecting the power sector. In DNV's experience, the companies that manage to control risk and take advantage of the opportunities in a changing business environment are more likely to succeed. This paper gives an overview of the main risks and opportunities of climate change facing the sector. Through a survey of the European and North American power sector, DNV has mapped the industry's views on the risk picture. The survey identifies what the industry players consider to be viable strategies for the sector in tackling the new risk reality of climate change.

  2. Risks of increased UV-B radiation for humans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Przybilla, B.; Eberlein-Koenig, B.; Bergner, T.

    1994-01-01

    If not compensated in any way, depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer leads to an increase of UV-B radiation at the earth's surface, especially towards the short-wave range, which is biologically the more active. The most concerning effect here is that of UV-B induced skin reactions, in particular malignant skintumors (malignant melanoma, spinocellular carcinoma, basalioma), whose incidence is expected to increase in future. As some photoreactions can be inhibited or enhanced also by radiation outside their action spectrum, it is possible for changes in solar spectral radiation flux density to influence photo-induced reactions that are driven at wavelengths outside the UV-B range. The authors have performed studies for developing methods of quantifying individual UV sensitivity. In vitro studies have shown that UV-A dependent photoreactions can be partly inhibited by UV-B. A number of drugs, as well as sulphites, which are used as preservatives amongst other things, have been shown to have phototoxic properties that may be relevant to photocarcinogenesis. Irradiation tests on cell cultures for different UV-B ranges have shown that irradiation at shorter wavelengths leads to a stronger release of proinflammatory cytokines that ar longer wavelengths with the same dose. Altogether it can be said that despite compelling theoretical evidence it is not easily possible to predict the actual consequences of an increase in particular of short-wave UV-B radiation at the earth's surface. The assumed effects must be examined individually by appropriate methods. (orig.) [de

  3. Economics and management of climate change: risks, mitigation and adaptation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Antes, Ralf

    2008-01-01

    ... climate change poses risks to societies and companies, nor about adequate strategies to cope with these risks. Bringing together scholars from environmental economics, political science, and business management, this book describes, analyses and evaluates climate change risks and responses of societies and companies. The book c...

  4. Climate change, uncertainty and investment in flood risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pol, van der T.D.

    2015-01-01

    Economic analysis of flood risk management strategies has become more complex due to climate change. This thesis investigates the impact of climate change on investment in flood risk reduction, and applies optimisation methods to support identification of optimal flood risk management strategies.

  5. Risk, innovation and change : design propositions for implementing risk management in organizations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Staveren, Martinus Theodorus

    2009-01-01

    This Ph.D. research generated unique design propositions for implementing existing risk management methodologies in organizations. The resulting design propositions incorporate a synthesis of risk management, innovation management and change management. True implementation of risk management is

  6. Increased Wildfire Risk Driven by Climate and Development Interactions in the Bolivian Chiquitania, Southern Amazonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devisscher, Tahia; Anderson, Liana O; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Galván, Luis; Malhi, Yadvinder

    2016-01-01

    Wildfires are becoming increasingly dominant in tropical landscapes due to reinforcing feedbacks between land cover change and more severe dry conditions. This study focused on the Bolivian Chiquitania, a region located at the southern edge of Amazonia. The extensive, unique and well-conserved tropical dry forest in this region is susceptible to wildfires due to a marked seasonality. We used a novel approach to assess fire risk at the regional level driven by different development trajectories interacting with changing climatic conditions. Possible future risk scenarios were simulated using maximum entropy modelling with presence-only data, combining land cover, anthropogenic and climatic variables. We found that important determinants of fire risk in the region are distance to roads, recent deforestation and density of human settlements. Severely dry conditions alone increased the area of high fire risk by 69%, affecting all categories of land use and land cover. Interactions between extreme dry conditions and rapid frontier expansion further increased fire risk, resulting in potential biomass loss of 2.44±0.8 Tg in high risk area, about 1.8 times higher than the estimates for the 2010 drought. These interactions showed particularly high fire risk in land used for 'extensive cattle ranching', 'agro-silvopastoral use' and 'intensive cattle ranching and agriculture'. These findings have serious implications for subsistence activities and the economy in the Chiquitania, which greatly depend on the forestry, agriculture and livestock sectors. Results are particularly concerning if considering the current development policies promoting frontier expansion. Departmental protected areas inhibited wildfires when strategically established in areas of high risk, even under drought conditions. However, further research is needed to assess their effectiveness accounting for more specific contextual factors. This novel and simple modelling approach can inform fire and land

  7. Increased Wildfire Risk Driven by Climate and Development Interactions in the Bolivian Chiquitania, Southern Amazonia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tahia Devisscher

    Full Text Available Wildfires are becoming increasingly dominant in tropical landscapes due to reinforcing feedbacks between land cover change and more severe dry conditions. This study focused on the Bolivian Chiquitania, a region located at the southern edge of Amazonia. The extensive, unique and well-conserved tropical dry forest in this region is susceptible to wildfires due to a marked seasonality. We used a novel approach to assess fire risk at the regional level driven by different development trajectories interacting with changing climatic conditions. Possible future risk scenarios were simulated using maximum entropy modelling with presence-only data, combining land cover, anthropogenic and climatic variables. We found that important determinants of fire risk in the region are distance to roads, recent deforestation and density of human settlements. Severely dry conditions alone increased the area of high fire risk by 69%, affecting all categories of land use and land cover. Interactions between extreme dry conditions and rapid frontier expansion further increased fire risk, resulting in potential biomass loss of 2.44±0.8 Tg in high risk area, about 1.8 times higher than the estimates for the 2010 drought. These interactions showed particularly high fire risk in land used for 'extensive cattle ranching', 'agro-silvopastoral use' and 'intensive cattle ranching and agriculture'. These findings have serious implications for subsistence activities and the economy in the Chiquitania, which greatly depend on the forestry, agriculture and livestock sectors. Results are particularly concerning if considering the current development policies promoting frontier expansion. Departmental protected areas inhibited wildfires when strategically established in areas of high risk, even under drought conditions. However, further research is needed to assess their effectiveness accounting for more specific contextual factors. This novel and simple modelling approach can

  8. Does Operational Risk Disclosure Quality Increase Operating Cash Flows?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haitham Nobanee

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to measure the degree of operational risk disclosure and examine its impact on operating cash flow of banks listed on the UAE Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange (ADX and Dubai Financial Market (DFM during the period 2003-2016. The authors conducted content analysis of the annual reports to measure the degree of operational risk disclosure. In addition, they used dynamic panel data regressions to analyze the impact of operational risk disclosure on the operating cash flow generated by the banks. The results show a low degree of operational risk disclosure for all UAE banks, both Islamic and conventional. In addition, the results show no association between the levels of disclosure of operational risk and cash flow for all banks, conventional and Islamic. Operational risk disclosure of Islamic banks has not been examined by any prior researchers. In addition, this paper examines the potential impact of operational risk disclosure on the operating cash flow generated by the banks.

  9. Human Adenovirus 36 Infection Increased the Risk of Obesity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Mei-Yan; Cao, Bing; Wang, Dong-Fang; Guo, Jing-Hui; Chen, Kai-Li; Shi, Mai; Yin, Jian; Lu, Qing-Bin

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Human adenovirus 36 (HAdV-36), as the key pathogen, was supposed and discussed to be associated with obesity. We searched the references on the association between HAdV-36 infection and obesity with the different epidemiological methods, to explore the relationship with a larger sample size by meta-analysis and compare the differences of epidemiological methods and population subsets by the subgroup analyses. We conducted literature search on the association between HAdV-36 infections and obesity in English or Chinese published up to July 1, 2015. The primary outcome was the HAdV-36 infection rate in the obese and lean groups; the secondary outcomes were the BMI level and BMI z-score in the HAdV-36 positive and negative groups. The pooled odds ratio (OR) was calculated for the primary outcome; the standardized mean differences (SMDs) were calculated for the secondary and third outcomes. Prediction interval (PI) was graphically presented in the forest plot of the random effect meta-analyses. Metaregression analysis and subgroup analysis were performed. Finally 24 references with 10,191 study subjects were included in the meta-analysis. The obesity subjects were more likely to be infected with HAdV-36 compared to the lean controls (OR = 2.00; 95%CI: 1.46, 2.74; PI: 0.59, 6.76; P infection for obesity were 1.77 (95%CI: 1.19, 2.63; PI: 0.44, 7.03; P = 0.005) and 2.26 (95%CI: 1.67, 3.07; PI: 1.45, 3.54; P SMD of BMI was 0.28 (95% CI: 0.08, 0.47; PI: −0.53, 1.08; P = 0.006) in the HAdV-36 positive subjects with a high heterogeneity (I2 = 86.5%; P infection was higher than those without HAdV-36 infection (SMD = 0.19; 95%CI: −0.31, 0.70; PI: −2.10, 2.49), which had no significantly statistical difference (P = 0.453). HAdV-36 infection increased the risk of obesity. HAdV-36 also increased the risk of weight gain in adults, which was not observed in children. PMID:26705235

  10. Increased risk of cervical canal infections with intracervical Foley catheter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqui, Salva; Zuberi, Nadeem Faiyaz; Zafar, Afia; Qureshi, Rahat Najam

    2003-03-01

    To evaluate the effect of intracervical Foley catheter insertion, for the induction of labor, on cervical canal infection. A prospective interventional study with paired analysis. The study was conducted in the department of Obstetrics and Gynecology at the Aga Khan University, Karachi, between June 1 and August 31, 2002. SUBJECTS AND METHODS In 45 women undergoing cervical ripening with intracervical Foley catheter for the induction of labour at term, cervical swabs were taken for culture and sensitivity before its insertion and again after its spontaneous expulsion or removal. Intracervical Foley catheter was retained for mean duration of 8.1 +/- 1.7 hours. There was a significant change in the pathogenic organisms (0 % v 16.3 %; p 0.016) from pre-Foley to post-Foley catheter cervical swab cultures. Growth of beta-hemolytic Streptococcus group-B, Candida albicans, Candida glabrata and Gardnerella vaginalis on cervical swab were considered pathogenic. One woman (2.2 %) developed fever following insertion of intracervical Foley catheter. No statistically significant effect of potential confounding factors was observed on change in growth of pathogenic organisms. Induction of labour at term with Foley catheter is associated with a significant increase in intracervical pathogenic organisms despite undertaking routine aseptic measures. We recommend evaluation of this technique for its potential infectious harm in larger studies. Meanwhile, extreme aseptic measures should be undertaken during its insertion to avoid maternal and possible neonatal infections.

  11. Risk assessment in the face of a changing environment: gypsy moth and climate change in Utah.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, J A; Régnière, J; Gray, D R; Munson, A S

    2007-01-01

    The importance of efficaciously assessing the risk for introduction and establishment of pest species is an increasingly important ecological and economic issue. Evaluation of climate is fundamental to determining the potential success of an introduced or invasive insect pest. However, evaluating climatic suitability poses substantial difficulties; climate can be measured and assessed in a bewildering array of ways. Some physiological filter, in essence a lens that focuses climate through the requirements and constraints of a potential pest introduction, is required. Difficulties in assessing climate suitability are further exacerbated by the effects of climate change. Gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) is an exotic, tree-defoliating insect that is frequently introduced into the western United States. In spite of an abundance of potential host species, these introductions have yet to result in established populations. The success of eradication efforts and the unsuccessful establishment of many detected and undetected introductions may be related to an inhospitable climate. Climatic suitability for gypsy moth in the western United States, however, is potentially improving, perhaps rapidly, due to a general warming trend that began in the mid 1970s and continues today. In this work, we describe the application of a physiologically based climate suitability model for evaluating risk of gypsy moth establishment on a landscape level. Development of this risk assessment system first required amassing databases that integrated the gypsy moth climatic assessment model, with host species distributions, and climate (historical, present, and future). This integrated system was then used to evaluate climate change scenarios for native host species in Utah, with the result that risk of establishment will dramatically increase during the remainder of the 21st century under reasonable climate change scenarios. We then applied the risk assessment system to several case histories of

  12. The effect of education on climate change risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, B. C.; KC, S.; Jiang, L.; Fuchs, R.; Pachauri, S.; Ren, X.; Zhang, T.; Laidlaw, E.

    2017-12-01

    Changes in the demographic and socio-economic compositions of populations are relevant to the climate change issue because these characteristics can be important determinants both of the capacity to adapt to climate change impacts as well as of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, and therefore climate change. However, the incorporation of major trends such as aging, urbanization, and changes in household size into projections of future energy use and emissions is rare. Here we build on our previous work in this area by exploring the implications of future changes in educational attainment for the climate issue. Changes in the educational composition of the population may reduce the vulnerability of the population to climate change impacts, reducing risks. However they may also have effects on energy use and land use, and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions that drive climate change and increase risks. The direction of the effect of education on emissions is itself ambiguous. On the one hand, improvements in education can be expected to lead to faster fertility decline and slower population growth which, all else equal, would be expected to reduce emissions. On the other hand, education can also be expected to lead to faster economic growth, which would tend to increase emissions, and also to changes in consumption patterns. We employ iPETS, an integrated assessment model that includes a multi-region model of the world economy, driven with a new set of country-specific projections of future educational composition, to test the net effect of education on energy use and emissions on four world regions (China, India, Latin America, and Rest of Asia + Middle East) and therefore on climate. We also calculate the Human Development Index (HDI) for each region resulting from these scenarios, as an indicator of vulnerability to climate impacts. We find that the net effect of improved education is to increase emissions in the medium term driven primarily by increased

  13. Overview of the risk management approach to adaptation to climate change in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noble, D.; Bruce, J.; Egener, M.

    2005-03-01

    Climate change poses risks related to frequent and extreme weather events, changes in water availability and changes in the performance of infrastructure systems. Risk management offers a decision-making framework to assist in the selection of optimal or cost-effective strategies using a systematic public process. Risks related to climate change are a new type of risk and are increasingly of concern for governments and citizens around the world. An introduction to risk-based approaches to climate change adaptation decision-making in Canada was presented in this paper. Steps in the risk management process were presented. Risk management approaches from various countries were reviewed, including the Canadian Standards Association's (CSA) national risk management guideline; the Government of Canada's Integrated Risk Management Framework; the Caribbean Risk Management Guideline; World Bank risk management strategies for adaptation to climate change; and the United Kingdom Climate Impacts Program. Details of a study conducted by the United Kingdom Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs to explore the implications of climate change were also presented. Vulnerabilities of response mechanisms to climate change and the interrelations of public systems were reviewed. Issues concerning infrastructure renewal and development were examined, as well as emergency planning and management strategies. It was concluded that the development of training materials and tools for decision-makers in Canada is needed. A climate change risk management planning guidebook was proposed. refs., tabs., figs

  14. Placental Cadmium Levels Are Associated with Increased Preeclampsia Risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica E Laine

    Full Text Available Environmental exposure to heavy metals is a potentially modifiable risk factor for preeclampsia (PE. Toxicologically, there are known interactions between the toxic metal cadmium (Cd and essential metals such as selenium (Se and zinc (Zn, as these metals can protect against the toxicity of Cd. As they relate to preeclampsia, the interaction between Cd and these essential metals is unknown. The aims of the present study were to measure placental levels of Cd, Se, and Zn in a cohort of 172 pregnant women from across the southeast US and to examine associations of metals levels with the odds of PE in a nested case-control design. Logistic regressions were performed to assess odds ratios (OR for PE with exposure to Cd controlling for confounders, as well as interactive models with Se or Zn. The mean placental Cd level was 3.6 ng/g, ranging from 0.52 to 14.5 ng/g. There was an increased odds ratio for PE in relationship to placental levels of Cd (OR = 1.5; 95% CI: 1.1-2.2. The Cd-associated OR for PE increased when analyzed in relationship to lower placental Se levels (OR = 2.0; 95% CI: 1.1-3.5 and decreased with higher placental Se levels (OR = 0.98; 95% CI: 0.5-1.9. Similarly, under conditions of lower placental Zn, the Cd-associated OR for PE was elevated (OR = 1.8; 95% CI: 0.8-3.9, whereas with higher placental Zn it was reduced (OR = 1.3; 95% CI: 0.8-2.0. Data from this pilot study suggest that essential metals may play an important role in reducing the odds of Cd-associated preeclampsia and that replication in a larger cohort is warranted.

  15. Endotoxemia is associated with an increased risk of incident diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pussinen, Pirkko J; Havulinna, Aki S; Lehto, Markku; Sundvall, Jouko; Salomaa, Veikko

    2011-02-01

    Diabetes is accompanied with a chronic low-grade inflammation, which may in part be mediated by endotoxins derived from Gram-negative bacteria. We investigated in a population-based cohort whether endotoxemia is associated with clinically incident diabetes. The serum endotoxin activity was measured by limulus assay from the FINRISK97 cohort comprising 7,169 subjects aged 25-74 years and followed up for 10 years. Both the subjects with prevalent diabetes (n = 537) and those with incident diabetes (n = 462) had higher endotoxin activity than the nondiabetic individuals (P endotoxemia with an increased risk of incident diabetes was independent of the metabolic syndrome as defined either by the National Cholesterol Educational Program-Adult Treatment Panel III or the International Diabetes Federation. Endotoxin activity was linearly related (P metabolic syndrome. Both prevalent and incident diabetes were associated with endotoxemia, which may link metabolic disorders to inflammation. The results suggest that microbes play a role in the pathogenesis of diabetes.

  16. BMI and Lifetime Changes in BMI and Cancer Mortality Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taghizadeh, Niloofar; Boezen, H. Marike; Schouten, Jan P.; Schröder, Carolien P.; de Vries, E. G. Elisabeth; Vonk, Judith M.

    2015-01-01

    Body Mass Index (BMI) is known to be associated with cancer mortality, but little is known about the link between lifetime changes in BMI and cancer mortality in both males and females. We studied the association of BMI measurements (at baseline, highest and lowest BMI during the study-period) and lifetime changes in BMI (calculated over different time periods (i.e. short time period: annual change in BMI between successive surveys, long time period: annual change in BMI over the entire study period) with mortality from any cancer, and lung, colorectal, prostate and breast cancer in a large cohort study (n=8,645. Vlagtwedde-Vlaardingen, 1965-1990) with a follow-up on mortality status on December 31st 2008. We used multivariate Cox regression models with adjustments for age, smoking, sex, and place of residence. Being overweight at baseline was associated with a higher risk of prostate cancer mortality (hazard ratio (HR) =2.22; 95% CI 1.19-4.17). Obesity at baseline was associated with a higher risk of any cancer mortality [all subjects (1.23 (1.01-1.50)), and females (1.40 (1.07-1.84))]. Chronically obese females (females who were obese during the entire study-period) had a higher risk of mortality from any cancer (2.16 (1.47-3.18), lung (3.22 (1.06-9.76)), colorectal (4.32 (1.53-12.20)), and breast cancer (2.52 (1.15-5.54)). We found no significant association between long-term annual change in BMI and cancer mortality risk. Both short-term annual increase and decrease in BMI were associated with a lower mortality risk from any cancer [all subjects: (0.67 (0.47-0.94)) and (0.73 (0.55-0.97)), respectively]. In conclusion, a higher BMI is associated with a higher cancer mortality risk. This study is the first to show that short-term annual changes in BMI were associated with lower mortality from any type of cancer. PMID:25881129

  17. Broken Homes: Stable Risk, Changing Reasons, Changing Forms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweetser, Dorrian Apple

    1985-01-01

    Cohort membership and two measures of social disadvantage were used as explanatory variables in analysis of the risk of growing up in a broken home and of the living arrangements of children with broken homes. The risk of a broken home by age 16 proved to be stable across cohorts and greater for those from disadvantaged homes. (Author/BL)

  18. A review of damage-reducing measures to manage fluvial flood risks in a changing climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kreibich, H.; Bubeck, P.; van Vliet, M.; de Moel, H.

    2015-01-01

    Damage due to floods has increased during the last few decades, and further increases are expected in several regions due to climate change and growing vulnerability. To address the projected increase in flood risk, a combination of structural and non-structural flood risk mitigation measures is

  19. Behavioural adjustment in response to increased predation risk: a study in three duck species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cédric Zimmer

    Full Text Available Predation directly triggers behavioural decisions designed to increase immediate survival. However, these behavioural modifications can have long term costs. There is therefore a trade-off between antipredator behaviours and other activities. This trade-off is generally considered between vigilance and only one other behaviour, thus neglecting potential compensations. In this study, we considered the effect of an increase in predation risk on the diurnal time-budget of three captive duck species during the wintering period. We artificially increased predation risk by disturbing two groups of 14 mallard and teals at different frequencies, and one group of 14 tufted ducks with a radio-controlled stressor. We recorded foraging, vigilance, preening and sleeping durations the week before, during and after disturbance sessions. Disturbed groups were compared to an undisturbed control group. We showed that in all three species, the increase in predation risk resulted in a decrease in foraging and preening and led to an increase in sleeping. It is worth noting that contrary to common observations, vigilance did not increase. However, ducks are known to be vigilant while sleeping. This complex behavioural adjustment therefore seems to be optimal as it may allow ducks to reduce their predation risk. Our results highlight the fact that it is necessary to encompass the whole individual time-budget when studying behavioural modifications under predation risk. Finally, we propose that studies of behavioural time-budget changes under predation risk should be included in the more general framework of the starvation-predation risk trade-off.

  20. Changing Forest Disturbance Regimes and Risk Perceptions in Homer, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtney G. F1int

    2007-01-01

    Forest disturbances caused by insects can lead to other disturbances, risks, and changes across landscapes. Evaluating the human dimensions of such disturbances furthers understanding of integrated changes in natural and social systems. This article examines the effects of changing forest disturbance regimes on local risk perceptions and attitudes in Homer, Alaska....

  1. Patients with psoriasis have an increased risk of cardiovascular diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahlehoff, Ole; Gislason, Gunnar; Lindhardsen, Jesper

    2012-01-01

    Psoriasis is a chronic immunoinflammatory disease that affects 2-3% of the population and shares pathophysiologic mechanisms and risk factors with cardiovascular diseases. Studies have suggested psoriasis as an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease and Danish guidelines...... on cardiovascular risk factor modification in patients with psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis have recently been published. We provide a short review of the current evidence and the Danish guidelines....

  2. Changes in Concurrent Risk of Warm and Dry Years under Impact of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarhadi, A.; Wiper, M.; Touma, D. E.; Ausín, M. C.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

    2017-12-01

    Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena. The changing concurrence of multiple climatic extremes (warm and dry years) may result in intensification of undesirable consequences for water resources, human and ecosystem health, and environmental equity. The present study assesses how global warming influences the probability that warm and dry years co-occur in a global scale. In the first step of the study a designed multivariate Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to detect the areas in which the concurrence of warm and dry years has increased in the historical climate records and also climate models in the global scale. The next step investigates the concurrent risk of the extremes under dynamic nonstationary conditions. A fully generalized multivariate risk framework is designed to evolve through time under dynamic nonstationary conditions. In this methodology, Bayesian, dynamic copulas are developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes (warm and dry years). The results reveal an increasing trend in the concurrence risk of warm and dry years, which are in agreement with the multivariate trend analysis from historical and climate models. In addition to providing a novel quantification of the changing probability of compound extreme events, the results of this study can help decision makers develop short- and long-term strategies to prepare for climate stresses now and in the future.

  3. HUD INFORMATION SYSTEMS: Immature Software Acquisition Capability Increases Project Risks

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    .... GAO has designated HUD's major program areas as high risk, in part because the department's information and financial management systems were poorly integrated, ineffective, and generally unreliable...

  4. Cervical HSV-2 infection causes cervical remodeling and increases risk for ascending infection and preterm birth

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGee, Devin; Poncil, Sharra; Patterson, Amanda

    2017-01-01

    Preterm birth (PTB), or birth before 37 weeks gestation, is the leading cause of neonatal mortality worldwide. Cervical viral infections have been established as risk factors for PTB in women, although the mechanism leading to increased risk is unknown. Using a mouse model of pregnancy, we determined that intra-vaginal HSV2 infection caused increased rates of preterm birth following an intra-vaginal bacterial infection. HSV2 infection resulted in histological changes in the cervix mimicking cervical ripening, including significant collagen remodeling and increased hyaluronic acid synthesis. Viral infection also caused aberrant expression of estrogen and progesterone receptor in the cervical epithelium. Further analysis using human ectocervical cells demonstrated a role for Src kinase in virus-mediated changes in estrogen receptor and hyaluronic acid expression. In conclusion, HSV2 affects proteins involved in tissue hormone responsiveness, causes significant changes reminiscent of premature cervical ripening, and increases risk of preterm birth. Studies such as this improve our chances of identifying clinical interventions in the future. PMID:29190738

  5. Climate change and coastal environmental risk perceptions in Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlton, Stuart J; Jacobson, Susan K

    2013-11-30

    Understanding public perceptions of climate change risks is a prerequisite for effective climate communication and adaptation. Many studies of climate risk perceptions have either analyzed a general operationalization of climate change risk or employed a case-study approach of specific adaptive processes. This study takes a different approach, examining attitudes toward 17 specific, climate-related coastal risks and cognitive, affective, and risk-specific predictors of risk perception. A survey of 558 undergraduates revealed that risks to the physical environment were a greater concern than economic or biological risks. Perceptions of greater physical environment risks were significantly associated with having more pro-environmental attitudes, being female, and being more Democratic-leaning. Perceptions of greater economic risks were significantly associated with having more negative environmental attitudes, being female, and being more Republican-leaning. Perceptions of greater biological risks were significantly associated with more positive environmental attitudes. The findings suggest that focusing on physical environment risks maybe more salient to this audience than communications about general climate change adaptation. The results demonstrate that climate change beliefs and risk perceptions are multifactorial and complex and are shaped by individuals' attitudes and basic beliefs. Climate risk communications need to apply this knowledge to better target cognitive and affective processes of specific audiences, rather than providing simple characterizations of risks. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Increase of Meningitis Risk in Stroke Patients in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chie-Hong Wang

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background and purposeThe blood–brain barrier (BBB not only provides a physical obstruction but also recruits and activates neutrophils in cases of infection. Hemorrhagic or ischemic stroke reportedly induces the disruption of the BBB. However, few studies have reported a correlation between the incidence of meningitis in patients with a history of stroke. This study tested the hypothesis that patients with a history of stroke may be more vulnerable to meningitis.MethodsStroke and age-matched comparison (n = 29,436 and 87,951, respectively cohorts were recruited from the Taiwan National Health Insurance database (2000–2011. Correlations between the two cohorts were evaluated by Cox proportional hazard regression model, Kaplan–Meier curve, and log-rank tests.ResultsThe incidence of meningitis was higher in the stroke cohort compared to that in the comparison cohort [hazard ratio (HR, 2.89; 95% confidence interval (CI, 2.23–3.74, p < 0.001]. After adjusting for age, sex, and comorbidities, the estimated HR in the stroke cohort was 2.55-fold higher than that in the comparison cohort (CI, 1.94–3.37; p < 0.001. Notably, patients who had experienced hemorrhagic stroke had a higher incidence rate of meningitis than those with a history of ischemic stroke, except for patients older than 75 years (incidence rates in hemorrhagic/ischemic stroke patients, 3.14/1.48 in patients younger than 45 years, 1.52/0.41 in 45- to 64-year group, 1.15/0.90 in 65- to 74-year group, 0.74/0.93 in patients older than 75 years. Moreover, stroke patients who had undergone head surgery had the highest meningitis risk (adjusted HR, 8.66; 95% CI, 5.55–13.5; p < 0.001 followed by stroke patients who had not undergone head surgery (adjusted HR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.57–2.82; p < 0.001.ConclusionOur results indicated that stroke patients have higher risks of meningitis. Compromised BBB integrity in stroke patients may lead to increased

  7. Climate change, global risks, challenges and decisions. Synthesis report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, K.; Steffen, W.; Schellnhuber, H.J.

    2009-03-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009 (the 15th Conference of the Parties, COP-15) will be a critical step in developing a global response to the threat of climate change caused by human activities. The primary scientific input to those negotiations is the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2007. The IPCC report has already been instrumental in increasing both public and political awareness of the societal risks associated with unchecked emission of greenhouse gases. Since the production of the IPCC report, new knowledge has emerged that furthers understanding of the impacts of human influence on the climate and the response options and approaches that are available to tackle this complex issue. To bring this new knowledge together, the International Alliance of Research Universities organised an international scientific congress on climate change, Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions, which was held in Copenhagen from 10-12 March 2009. Participants came from nearly 80 different countries and contributed with more than 1400 scientific presentations. Abstracts for all of the scientific presentations made can be found at www.iop.org/EJ/volume/1755-1315/6, and a transcript of the closing plenary session can be found at environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/opinion/39126. This synthesis report presents an up-to-date overview of a broad range of research relevant to climate change - including fundamental climate science, the impacts of a changing climate on society and environment, and the many tools and approaches available to deal effectively with the challenge of climate change. (LN)

  8. Mechanism and preclinical prevention of increased breast cancer risk caused by pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haricharan, Svasti; Dong, Jie; Hein, Sarah; Reddy, Jay P; Du, Zhijun; Toneff, Michael; Holloway, Kimberly; Hilsenbeck, Susan G; Huang, Shixia; Atkinson, Rachel; Woodward, Wendy; Jindal, Sonali; Borges, Virginia F; Gutierrez, Carolina; Zhang, Hong; Schedin, Pepper J; Osborne, C Kent; Tweardy, David J; Li, Yi

    2013-12-31

    While a first pregnancy before age 22 lowers breast cancer risk, a pregnancy after age 35 significantly increases life-long breast cancer risk. Pregnancy causes several changes to the normal breast that raise barriers to transformation, but how pregnancy can also increase cancer risk remains unclear. We show in mice that pregnancy has different effects on the few early lesions that have already developed in the otherwise normal breast-it causes apoptosis evasion and accelerated progression to cancer. The apoptosis evasion is due to the normally tightly controlled STAT5 signaling going astray-these precancerous cells activate STAT5 in response to pregnancy/lactation hormones and maintain STAT5 activation even during involution, thus preventing the apoptosis normally initiated by oncoprotein and involution. Short-term anti-STAT5 treatment of lactation-completed mice bearing early lesions eliminates the increased risk after a pregnancy. This chemoprevention strategy has important implications for preventing increased human breast cancer risk caused by pregnancy. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00996.001.

  9. The Future is Now: Reducing Psychological Distance to Increase Public Engagement with Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Charlotte; Hine, Donald W; Marks, Anthony D G

    2017-02-01

    Many people perceive climate change as psychologically distant-a set of uncertain events that might occur far in the future, impacting distant places and affecting people dissimilar to themselves. In this study, we employed construal level theory to investigate whether a climate change communication intervention could increase public engagement by reducing the psychological distance of climate change. Australian residents (N = 333) were randomly assigned to one of two treatment conditions: one framed to increase psychological distance to climate change (distal frame), and the other framed to reduce psychological distance (proximal frame). Participants then completed measures of psychological distance of climate change impacts, climate change concern, and intentions to engage in mitigation behavior. Principal components analysis indicated that psychological distance to climate change was best conceptualized as a multidimensional construct consisting of four components: geographic, temporal, social, and uncertainty. Path analysis revealed the effect of the treatment frame on climate change concern and intentions was fully mediated by psychological distance dimensions related to uncertainty and social distance. Our results suggest that climate communications framed to reduce psychological distance represent a promising strategy for increasing public engagement with climate change. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Hormone replacement therapy increases the risk of cranial meningioma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lene; Friis, Søren; Hallas, Jesper

    2013-01-01

    We investigated the influence of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use on the risk of meningioma in a population-based setting.......We investigated the influence of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use on the risk of meningioma in a population-based setting....

  11. Changes in Soil Fungal Community Structure with Increasing Disturbance Frequency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Hyunjun; Kim, Mincheol; Tripathi, Binu; Adams, Jonathan

    2017-07-01

    Although disturbance is thought to be important in many ecological processes, responses of fungal communities to soil disturbance have been little studied experimentally. We subjected a soil microcosm to physical disturbance, at a range of frequencies designed to simulate ecological disturbance events. We analyzed the fungal community structure using Illumina HiSeq sequencing of the ITS1 region. Fungal diversity was found to decline with the increasing disturbance frequencies, with no sign of the "humpback" pattern found in many studies of larger sedentary organisms. There is thus no evidence of an effect of release from competition resulting from moderate disturbance-which suggests that competition and niche overlap may not be important in limiting soil fungal diversity. Changing disturbance frequency also led to consistent differences in community composition. There were clear differences in OTU-level composition, with different disturbance treatments each having distinct fungal communities. The functional profile of fungal groups (guilds) was changed by the level of disturbance frequency. These predictable differences in community composition suggest that soil fungi can possess different niches in relation to disturbance frequency, or time since last disturbance. Fungi appear to be most abundant relative to bacteria at intermediate disturbance frequencies, on the time scale we studied here.

  12. Increasing Participation and Compliance in International Climate Change Agreements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barrett, S.; Stavins, R.

    2002-11-01

    Scientific and economic consensus increasingly points to the need for a credible and cost-effective approach to address the threat of global climate change, but the Kyoto Protocol to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change appears incapable of inducing significant participation and compliance. We assess the Protocol and thirteen alternative policy architectures that have been proposed, with particular attention to their respective abilities to induce participation and compliance. We find that those approaches that offer cost-effective mitigation are unlikely to induce significant participation and compliance, while those approaches that are likely to enjoy a reasonably high level of implementation by sovereign states are sorely lacking in terms of their anticipated cost effectiveness. The feasible set of policy architectures is thus limited to second-best alternatives. Much more attention needs to be given - both by scholarly research and by international negotiations - to aspects of future international climate agreements that will affect the degrees of participation and compliance that can reasonably be expected to be forthcoming

  13. Risk factor management in a contemporary Australian population at increased cardiovascular disease risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, D J; Coller, J M; Gong, F F; McGrady, M; Prior, D L; Boffa, U; Shiel, L; Liew, D; Wolfe, R; Owen, A J; Krum, H; Reid, C M

    2017-11-14

    Effective management of cardiovascular and chronic kidney disease risk factors offers longer, healthier lives and savings in health care. We examined risk factor management in participants of the SCReening Evaluation of the Evolution of New Heart Failure (SCREEN-HF) study, a self-selected population at increased cardiovascular disease risk recruited from members of a health insurance fund in Melbourne and Shepparton, Australia. Inclusion criteria were age ≥60 years with one or more of self-reported ischaemic or other heart disease, irregular or rapid heart rhythm, cerebrovascular disease, renal impairment, or treatment for hypertension or diabetes for ≥2 years. Exclusion criteria were known heart failure or cardiac abnormality on echocardiography or other imaging. Medical history, clinical examination, full blood examination and biochemistry (without lipids and HbA1c) were performed for 3847 participants on enrolment, and blood pressure, lipids and HbA1c were measured 1-2 years after enrolment for 3202 participants. Despite 99% of 3294 participants with hypertension receiving antihypertensive medication, half had blood pressures >140/90 mmHg. Approximately 77% of participants were overweight or obese, with one third obese. Additionally, 74% of participants at high cardiovascular disease risk had low density lipoprotein cholesterol levels ≥2 mmol/l, one third of diabetic participants had HbA1c >7%, 22% had estimated glomerular filtration rate management of modifiable risk factors. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  14. Is use of fall risk-increasing drugs in an elderly population associated with an increased risk of hip fracture, after adjustment for multimorbidity level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorell, Kristine; Ranstad, Karin; Midlöv, Patrik

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Risk factors for hip fracture are well studied because of the negative impact on patients and the community, with mortality in the first year being almost 30% in the elderly. Age, gender and fall risk-increasing drugs, identified by the National Board of Health and Welfare in Sweden......, are well known risk factors for hip fracture, but how multimorbidity level affects the risk of hip fracture during use of fall risk-increasing drugs is to our knowledge not as well studied. This study explored the relationship between use of fall risk-increasing drugs in combination with multimorbidity...... level and risk of hip fracture in an elderly population. METHODS: Data were from Östergötland County, Sweden, and comprised the total population in the county aged 75 years and older during 2006. The odds ratio (OR) for hip fracture during use of fall risk-increasing drugs was calculated by multivariate...

  15. Distracted walking: cell phones increase injury risk for college pedestrians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stavrinos, Despina; Byington, Katherine W; Schwebel, David C

    2011-04-01

    Distraction on cell phones jeopardizes motor-vehicle driver safety, but few studies examine distracted walking. At particular risk are college students, who walk frequently in and near traffic, have increased pedestrian injury rates compared to other age groups, and frequently use cell phones. Using an interactive and immersive virtual environment, two experiments studied the effect of cell phone conversation on distraction of college student pedestrians. In the first, we examined whether pedestrians would display riskier behavior when distracted by a naturalistic cell phone conversation than when undistracted. We also considered whether individual difference factors would moderate the effect of the distraction. In a second experiment, we examined the impact of three forms of distraction on pedestrian safety: (a) engaging in a cell phone conversation, (b) engaging in a cognitively challenging spatial task by phone, and (c) engaging in a cognitively challenging mental arithmetic task by phone. Results revealed that cell phone conversations distracted college pedestrians considerably across all pedestrian safety variables measured, with just one exception. Attention to traffic was not affected by the naturalistic phone conversation in Experiment 1, but was altered by the cognitively-demanding content of some types of conversation in Experiment 2. The content of the conversation did not play a major role in distraction across other variables; both mundane and cognitively complex conversations distracted participants. Moreover, no significant associations between individual difference factors and susceptibility to distraction emerged. Results may inform researchers, policy makers, and pedestrians themselves. Educational campaigns might discourage telephone conversations in pedestrian environments. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Increased Wildfire Risk Driven by Climate and Development Interactions in the Bolivian Chiquitania, Southern Amazonia

    OpenAIRE

    Devisscher, Tahia; Anderson, Liana O.; Arag?o, Luiz E. O. C.; Galv?n, Luis; Malhi, Yadvinder

    2016-01-01

    Wildfires are becoming increasingly dominant in tropical landscapes due to reinforcing feedbacks between land cover change and more severe dry conditions. This study focused on the Bolivian Chiquitania, a region located at the southern edge of Amazonia. The extensive, unique and well-conserved tropical dry forest in this region is susceptible to wildfires due to a marked seasonality. We used a novel approach to assess fire risk at the regional level driven by different development trajectorie...

  17. Climate change compounding risks in North Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Drine, Imed

    2011-01-01

    The impact of climate change on agriculture and poor groups' livelihoods are one of the greatest potential threats to development and a key challenge in climate change agenda. The North Africa region is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to geographic and ecological features. The situation is aggravated by the interaction of multiple economic and social sources of stress and further compounded by low adaptive capacity. This paper describes the interaction between climate change, ec...

  18. Risk Communication, Moral Emotions and Climate Change.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roeser, S.

    2012-01-01

    This article discusses the potential role that emotions might play in enticing a lifestyle that diminishes climate change. Climate change is an important challenge for society. There is a growing consensus that climate change is due to our behavior, but few people are willing to significantly adapt

  19. Cross continental increase in methane ebullition under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aben, Ralf C H; Barros, Nathan; van Donk, Ellen; Frenken, Thijs; Hilt, Sabine; Kazanjian, Garabet; Lamers, Leon P M; Peeters, Edwin T H M; Roelofs, Jan G M; de Senerpont Domis, Lisette N; Stephan, Susanne; Velthuis, Mandy; Van de Waal, Dedmer B; Wik, Martin; Thornton, Brett F; Wilkinson, Jeremy; DelSontro, Tonya; Kosten, Sarian

    2017-11-22

    Methane (CH 4 ) strongly contributes to observed global warming. As natural CH 4 emissions mainly originate from wet ecosystems, it is important to unravel how climate change may affect these emissions. This is especially true for ebullition (bubble flux from sediments), a pathway that has long been underestimated but generally dominates emissions. Here we show a remarkably strong relationship between CH 4 ebullition and temperature across a wide range of freshwater ecosystems on different continents using multi-seasonal CH 4 ebullition data from the literature. As these temperature-ebullition relationships may have been affected by seasonal variation in organic matter availability, we also conducted a controlled year-round mesocosm experiment. Here 4 °C warming led to 51% higher total annual CH 4 ebullition, while diffusion was not affected. Our combined findings suggest that global warming will strongly enhance freshwater CH 4 emissions through a disproportional increase in ebullition (6-20% per 1 °C increase), contributing to global warming.

  20. Neural vulnerability factors that increase risk for future weight gain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stice, Eric; Yokum, Sonja

    2016-05-01

    Theorists have proposed several neural vulnerability factors that may increase overeating and consequent weight gain. Early cross-sectional imaging studies could not determine whether aberrant neural responsivity was a precursor or consequence of overeating. However, recent prospective imaging studies examining predictors of future weight gain and response to obesity treatment, and repeated-measures imaging studies before and after weight gain and loss have advanced knowledge of etiologic processes and neural plasticity resulting from weight change. The present article reviews evidence from prospective studies using imaging and behavioral measures reflecting neural function, as well as randomized experiments with humans and animals that are consistent or inconsistent with 5 neural vulnerability theories for excessive weight gain. Extant data provide strong support for the incentive sensitization theory of obesity and moderate support for the reward surfeit theory, inhibitory control deficit theory, and dynamic vulnerability model of obesity, which attempted to synthesize the former theories into a single etiologic model. However, existing data provide only minimal support for the reward deficit theory. Findings are synthesized into a new working etiologic model that is based on current scientific knowledge. Important directions for future studies, which have the potential to support or refute this working etiologic model, are delineated. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  1. Neural Vulnerability Factors that Increase Risk for Future Weight Gain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stice, Eric; Yokum, Sonja

    2015-01-01

    Theorists have proposed several neural vulnerability factors that may increase overeating and consequent weight gain. Early cross-sectional imaging studies could not determine whether aberrant neural responsivity was a precursor or consequence of overeating. However, recent prospective imaging studies examining predictors of future weight gain and response to obesity treatment, and repeated-measures imaging studies before and after weight gain and loss have advanced knowledge of etiologic processes and neural plasticity resulting from weight change. The present article reviews evidence from prospective studies using imaging and behavioral measures reflecting neural function, as well as randomized experiments with humans and animals that are consistent or inconsistent with five neural vulnerability theories for excessive weight gain. Extant data provide strong support for the incentive sensitization theory of obesity and moderate support for the reward surfeit theory, inhibitory control deficit theory, and dynamic vulnerability model of obesity, which attempted to synthesize the former theories into a single etiologic model. However, existing data provide only minimal support for the reward deficit theory. Findings are synthesized into a new working etiologic model that is based on current scientific knowledge. Important directions for future studies, which have the potential to support or refute this working etiologic model, are delineated. PMID:26854866

  2. Temporal constraints on predation risk assessment in a changing world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chivers, Douglas P.; Ramasamy, Ryan A.; McCormick, Mark I.; Watson, Sue-Ann; Siebeck, Ulrike E.; Ferrari, Maud C.O.

    2014-01-01

    Habitat degradation takes various forms and likely represents the most significant threat to our global biodiversity. Recently, we have seen considerable attention paid to increasing global CO 2 emissions which lead to ocean acidification (OA). Other stressors, such as changing levels of ultraviolet radiation (UVR), also impact biodiversity but have received much less attention in the recent past. Here we examine fundamental questions about temporal aspects of risk assessment by coral reef damselfish and provide critical insights into how OA and UVR influence this assessment. Chemical cues released during a predator attack provide a rich source of information that other prey animals use to mediate their risk of predation and are the basis of the majority of trait-mediated indirect interactions in aquatic communities. However, we have surprisingly limited information about temporal aspects of risk assessment because we lack knowledge about how long chemical cues persist after they are released into the environment. Here, we showed that under ambient CO 2 conditions (∼ 385 μatm), alarm cues of ambon damselfish (Pomacentrus amboinensis) did not degrade within 30 min in the absence of ultraviolet radiation (UVR), but were degraded within 15 min when the CO 2 was increased to ∼ 905 μatm. In experiments that used filters to eliminate UVR, we found minimal degradation of alarm cues within 30 min, whereas under ambient UVR conditions, alarm cues were completely degraded within 15 min. Moreover, in the presence of both UVR and elevated CO 2 , alarm cues were broken down within 5 min. Our results highlight that alarm cues degrade surprisingly quickly under natural conditions and that anthropogenic changes have the potential to dramatically change rates of cue degradation in the wild. This has considerable implications for risk assessment and consequently the importance of trait-mediated indirect interactions in coral-reef communities. - Highlights: • We have limited

  3. Temporal constraints on predation risk assessment in a changing world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chivers, Douglas P., E-mail: doug.chivers@usask.ca [Department of Biology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5E2 (Canada); Ramasamy, Ryan A.; McCormick, Mark I.; Watson, Sue-Ann [ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville Qld4811 (Australia); School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University, Townsville Qld4811 (Australia); Siebeck, Ulrike E. [School of Biomedical Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane Qld4072 (Australia); Ferrari, Maud C.O. [Department of Biomedical Sciences, WCVM, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK S7W 5B4 (Canada)

    2014-12-01

    Habitat degradation takes various forms and likely represents the most significant threat to our global biodiversity. Recently, we have seen considerable attention paid to increasing global CO{sub 2} emissions which lead to ocean acidification (OA). Other stressors, such as changing levels of ultraviolet radiation (UVR), also impact biodiversity but have received much less attention in the recent past. Here we examine fundamental questions about temporal aspects of risk assessment by coral reef damselfish and provide critical insights into how OA and UVR influence this assessment. Chemical cues released during a predator attack provide a rich source of information that other prey animals use to mediate their risk of predation and are the basis of the majority of trait-mediated indirect interactions in aquatic communities. However, we have surprisingly limited information about temporal aspects of risk assessment because we lack knowledge about how long chemical cues persist after they are released into the environment. Here, we showed that under ambient CO{sub 2} conditions (∼ 385 μatm), alarm cues of ambon damselfish (Pomacentrus amboinensis) did not degrade within 30 min in the absence of ultraviolet radiation (UVR), but were degraded within 15 min when the CO{sub 2} was increased to ∼ 905 μatm. In experiments that used filters to eliminate UVR, we found minimal degradation of alarm cues within 30 min, whereas under ambient UVR conditions, alarm cues were completely degraded within 15 min. Moreover, in the presence of both UVR and elevated CO{sub 2}, alarm cues were broken down within 5 min. Our results highlight that alarm cues degrade surprisingly quickly under natural conditions and that anthropogenic changes have the potential to dramatically change rates of cue degradation in the wild. This has considerable implications for risk assessment and consequently the importance of trait-mediated indirect interactions in coral-reef communities. - Highlights:

  4. Changes in smoking habits and risk of asthma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Godtfredsen, N S; Lange, P; Prescott, E

    2001-01-01

    who also attended the third and last examination (10-yr follow-up). The point-prevalence of smoking cessation as well as the asthma incidence between examinations was estimated, and a multivariate logistic regression model was used to examine the relationship between changes in smoking habits...... first to second follow-up. Continuing smoking also increased the risk of asthma significantly (OR 2.6 and 2.0, respectively). The results indicate that exsmokers have a higher incidence of self-reported asthma than never-smokers. It is likely that subjects perceive chronic obstructive pulmonary disease...

  5. Framing risk and uncertainty in social science articles on climate change, 1995–2012

    OpenAIRE

    Shaw, Chris; Hellsten, Iina; Nerlich, Brigitte

    2016-01-01

    The issue of climate change is intimately linked to notions of risk and uncertainty, concepts that pose challenges to climate science, climate change communication, and science-society interactions. While a large majority of climate scientists are increasingly certain about the causes of climate change and the risks posed by its impacts (see IPCC, 2013 and 2014), public perception of climate change is still largely framed by uncertainty, especially regarding impacts (Poortinga et al., 2011). ...

  6. Reducing Risk and Increasing Exploration Payoff with Symbiotic Rover Pairs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Planetary explorations missions avoid the destinations that offer the greatest scientific payout because these destinations come with a risk too great for a primary...

  7. Study finds increases in risk of leukemias related to treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    A new study describes the pattern of risk for chemotherapy-related acute myeloid leukemia among adult cancer survivors over the past three decades who have previously been treated with chemotherapy for other cancers. These patterns coincide with major shi

  8. Increased risk of intestinal cancer in Crohn's disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jess, Tine; Gamborg, Michael; Matzen, Peter

    2005-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The risk of intestinal malignancy in Crohn's disease (CD) remains uncertain since risk estimates vary worldwide. The global CD population is growing and there is a demand for better knowledge of prognosis of this disease. Hence, the aim of the present study was to conduct a meta......-analysis of population-based data on intestinal cancer risk in CD. METHODS: The MEDLINE search engine and abstracts from international conferences were searched for the relevant literature by use of explicit search criteria. All papers fulfilling the strict inclusion criteria were scrutinized for data on population size......, time of follow-up, and observed to expected cancer rates. STATA meta-analysis software was used to perform overall pooled risk estimates (standardized incidence ratio (SIR), observed/expected) and meta-regression analyses of the influence of specific variables on SIR. RESULTS: Six papers fulfilled...

  9. Increasing Effectiveness and Efficiency Through Risk-Based Deployments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Joel Miller, “Risk Terrain Modeling: Brokering Criminological Theory and GIS Methods for Crime Forecasting,” Justice Quarterly 28, no. 2 (2011), http...publications/MaritimePiracy_Brief.pdf. 121 Leslie W. Kennedy and Edmund F. McGarrell, ed., Crime and Terrorism Risk: Studies in Criminology and... Criminological Theory and GIS Methods for Crime Forecasting.” Justice Quarterly 28, no. 2 (2011). http://search.proquest.com/docview/863479648

  10. Increased risk of revision for infection in rheumatoid arthritis patients with total hip replacements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenstad, Anne M; Dale, Håvard; Havelin, Leif; Hallan, Geir; Overgaard, Søren; Pedersen, Alma B; Kärrholm, Johan; Garellick, Göran; Pulkkinen, Pekka; Eskelinen, Antti; Mäkelä, Keijo; Engesæter, Lars B; Fevang, Bjørg-Tilde

    2015-01-01

    Background and purpose Medical treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) has changed dramatically over the last 15 years, including immune modulation. We investigated the risk of revision for infection after primary total hip replacement (THR) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis over a 16-year period, and compared it with that in THR patients with osteoarthritis (OA). Patients and methods We identified 13,384 THRs in RA patients and 377,287 THRs in OA patients from 1995 through 2010 in a dataset from the Nordic Arthroplasty Register Association (NARA). Kaplan-Meier survival curves, with revision for infection as the endpoint, were constructed. Cox regression analyses were performed to calculate the relative risk (RR) of revision for infection adjusted for age, sex, fixation technique, and year of primary surgery. Results RA patients had a 1.3 times (95% CI 1.0–1.6) higher risk of revision for infection. After 2001, this risk increased more for RA patients than for OA patients. During the first 3 months and from 8 years postoperatively, the risk of revision for infection was higher in RA patients with THRs fixated with antibiotic-loaded cement than in corresponding OA patients. Interpretation We found a slightly higher overall risk of revision for infection in RA patients than in OA patients, but this difference was only present after 2001. In THRs with antibiotic-loaded cement, the risk of very early and late infections leading to revision was higher in RA patients than in OA patients. PMID:25782042

  11. High dietary protein intake is associated with an increased body weight and total death risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Alonso, Pablo; Salas-Salvadó, Jordi; Ruiz-Canela, Miguel; Corella, Dolores; Estruch, Ramón; Fitó, Montserrat; Arós, Fernando; Gómez-Gracia, Enrique; Fiol, Miquel; Lapetra, José; Basora, Josep; Serra-Majem, Lluis; Muñoz, Miguel Ángel; Buil-Cosiales, Pilar; Saiz, Carmen; Bulló, Mònica

    2016-04-01

    High dietary protein diets are widely used to manage overweight and obesity. However, there is a lack of consensus about their long-term efficacy and safety. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess the effect of long-term high-protein consumption on body weight changes and death outcomes in subjects at high cardiovascular risk. A secondary analysis of the PREDIMED trial was conducted. Dietary protein was assessed using a food-frequency questionnaire during the follow-up. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) for protein intake in relation to the risk of body weight and waist circumference changes, cardiovascular disease, cardiovascular death, cancer death and total death. Higher total protein intake, expressed as percentage of energy, was significantly associated with a greater risk of weight gain when protein replaced carbohydrates (HR: 1.90; 95%CI: 1.05, 3.46) but not when replaced fat (HR: 1.69; 95%CI: 0.94, 3.03). However, no association was found between protein intake and waist circumference. Contrary, higher total protein intake was associated with a greater risk of all-cause death in both carbohydrate and fat substitution models (HR: 1.59; 95%CI: 1.08, 2.35; and HR: 1.66; 95%CI: 1.13, 2.43, respectively). A higher consumption of animal protein was associated with an increased risk of fatal and non-fatal outcomes when protein substituted carbohydrates or fat. Higher dietary protein intake is associated with long-term increased risk of body weight gain and overall death in a Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

  12. Climate Change Risk Appraisal in the Austrian Ski Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfsegger, C.

    2009-04-01

    Ski tourism is an economically and culturally important industry in many parts of Europe. A growing number of studies in Europe, North America, Japan, and Australia have concluded that climate change has potentially serious implications for the sustainability of ski operations by reducing the average length of ski seasons and, where applicable, increasing snowmaking costs. To date, however, the climate change risk awareness and adaptive responses of stakeholders in the ski industry have not been examined. A survey of managers at low elevation ski areas in Austria was undertaken to explore their perceptions of climate change (past and future), how climate change had/will affect their operations, and their adaptive responses (past and planned). The results indicate that climate change is not perceived to be a serious threat to ski operations and that with technological adaptation, principally snowmaking, ski area managers believe they will be able to effectively cope with climate change in the 21st century. The consequences of these perceptions for the future operation of these ski areas are discussed and conclusions drawn for the future of ski tourism in Austria.

  13. Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan R Mosedale

    Full Text Available The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions.

  14. Chronic Pancreatitis Correlates With Increased Risk of Cerebrovascular Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Tuck-Siu; Liao, Kuan-Fu; Lin, Chi-Ming; Lin, Cheng-Li; Chen, Wen-Chi; Lai, Shih-Wei

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The aim of this study is to explore whether there is a relationship between chronic pancreatitis and cerebrovascular disease in Taiwan. Using the claims data of the Taiwan National Health Insurance Program, we identified 16,672 subjects aged 20 to 84 years with a new diagnosis of chronic pancreatitis from 2000 to 2010 as the chronic pancreatitis group. We randomly selected 65,877 subjects aged 20 to 84 years without chronic pancreatitis as the nonchronic pancreatitis group. Both groups were matched by sex, age, comorbidities, and the index year of diagnosing chronic pancreatitis. The incidence of cerebrovascular disease at the end of 2011 was measured. The multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to measure the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for cerebrovascular disease risk associated with chronic pancreatitis and other comorbidities. The overall incidence of cerebrovascular disease was 1.24-fold greater in the chronic pancreatitis group than that in the nonchronic pancreatitis group (14.2 vs. 11.5 per 1000 person-years, 95% CI = 1.19–1.30). After controlling for confounding factors, the adjusted HR of cerebrovascular disease was 1.27 (95% CI = 1.19–1.36) for the chronic pancreatitis group as compared with the nonchronic pancreatitis group. Woman (adjusted HR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.31–1.51), age (every 1 year, HR = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.04–1.05), atrial fibrillation (adjusted HR = 1.23, 95% CI = 1.02–1.48), chronic kidney disease (adjusted HR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.31–1.67), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (adjusted HR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.16–1.40), diabetes mellitus (adjusted HR = 1.82, 95% CI = 1.72–1.92), hypertension (adjusted HR = 1.66, 95% CI = 1.56–1.76), and peripheral atherosclerosis (adjusted HR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.06–1.51) were other factors significantly associated with cerebrovascular disease. Chronic pancreatitis is

  15. No increased risk of early revision during the implementation phase of new cup designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Björk, Mathias; Nemes, Szilard; Rolfson, Ola; Jolbäck, Per; Kärrholm, Johan

    2016-01-01

    Background and purpose — In Sweden, less than 5% of patients who undergo total hip arthroplasty (THA) have revision. Younger patients have an increased risk of revision. New prosthetic designs are being introduced in order to improve outcomes further. We investigated whether the introductory phase of new cup designs would increase the revision rate. Patients and methods — All THAs and first-time cup revisions performed from 1993 through 2011 were identified in the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Register. The 15 types of cups used in more than 500 operations and inserted in more than 50 cases in each hospital (n = 52,903) were selected. All cups were given an order number, based on the order in which the cup had been inserted at each hospital. The influence of order number on the risk of revision was analyzed in a regression model, which was adjusted for potentially confounding demographic and surgical data. Revision within 2 years for all reasons (n = 940) was used as primary endpoint. Changes in the risk of revision based on the order number were analyzed using a spline. Results — The order number of the cup had no influence on the risk of early revision (p ≥ 0.7). Categorizing the order number using cutoff values obtained from the splines did not result in any statistically significant changes in risk of revision (p ≥ 0.2). Interpretation — We did not find any increased risk of early revision during the implementation phase of new cup designs. This finding is unexpected, and partly conflicts with data from other registries. The structured and stepwise introduction of new prosthesis designs, facilitated by the annual feedback from the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Register, may partly explain this discrepancy. PMID:27168095

  16. Explaining recent increases in students' marijuana use: impacts of perceived risks and disapproval, 1976 through 1996.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachman, J G; Johnson, L D; O'Malley, P M

    1998-06-01

    Marijuana use among high school seniors increased during most of the 1970s, decreased throughout the 1980s, and has been increasing again during the 1990s. Earlier analyses of the classes of 1976 through 1986 attributed the historic trends during that period to specific changes in views about marijuana. This study examined whether recent increases in marijuana use among seniors and among students in earlier grades reflect similar processes. Multivariate regression analyses were conducted on data from large annual nationwide surveys of high school seniors from 1976 through 1996 (approximate n = 61,000) and 8th and 10th graders from 1991 through 1996 (n's = 87,911 and 82,475, respectively). Individual lifestyle factors (grades, truancy, religious commitment, evenings out for recreation) correlated substantially with marijuana use but did not explain the historic changes in marijuana use. Rather, decreases in perceived risk of harmfulness and in disapproval can account for the recent increases in all 3 grades and for earlier decreases among seniors. These findings indicate that perceived risks and disapproval are important determinants of marijuana use. Accordingly, prevention efforts should include realistic information about risks and consequences of marijuana use.

  17. Does heightening risk appraisals change people's intentions and behavior? A meta-analysis of experimental studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheeran, Paschal; Harris, Peter R; Epton, Tracy

    2014-03-01

    Several theories construe risk appraisals as key determinants of decisions and actions, and this idea has been supported in correlational studies. However, correlational data cannot answer the question, "Does heightening risk appraisals change people's intentions and behavior?" The present review meta-analyzed experimental evidence in order to address this issue. We identified 4 elements of risk appraisal-risk perception, anticipatory emotion, anticipated emotion, and perceived severity-and located experiments that (a) engendered a statistically significant increase in risk appraisal among treatment compared to control participants and (b) measured subsequent intention or behavior. Heightening risk appraisals had effects of d+ = .31 (k = 217) and d+ = .23 (k = 93) on intention and behavior, respectively. There was evidence that the elements of risk appraisal combined to influence outcomes. For instance, heightening risk perceptions had larger effects on outcomes when anticipatory emotions or perceived severity was also increased. Crucially, risk appraisal effects were augmented by coping appraisals: Risk appraisals had larger effects on outcomes when response efficacy and self-efficacy were enhanced or when response costs were reduced. The largest effect sizes were observed when risk appraisals, response efficacy, and self-efficacy were simultaneously heightened (d+ = .98 and .45, for intention and behavior, respectively). These findings indicate that heightening risk appraisals changes intentions and behavior. However, the direct effects of risk appraisals were generally small. Exploiting synergies among the elements of risk appraisal, and between risk appraisals and coping appraisals, should make for more effective behavior change interventions.

  18. Seroma indicates increased risk of lymphedema following breast cancer treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toyserkani, Navid Mohamadpour; Jørgensen, Mads Gustaf; Haugaard, Karen

    2017-01-01

    Introduction Lymphedema is one of the most serious complications following breast cancer treatment. While many risk factors are well described the role of seroma formation has recently produced mixed results. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate if seroma is a risk factor for development of lymphedema...... in one of the largest retrospective cohort studies. Material and methods We included all patients with unilateral breast cancer treated in the period of 2008-2014. Data regarding treatment and breast cancer characteristics were retrieved from the national breast cancer registry. Data regarding lymphedema...... were lymphadenectomy, radiation therapy, chemotherapy, BMI above 30, total lymph nodes removed above 15 and higher number of metastatic lymph nodes. Conclusions Postoperative seroma doubles the risk of developing lymphedema. Future studies should examine if seroma reducing measures will lead to lower...

  19. Learning and Risk Exposure in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, F.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is a gradual process most apparent over long time-scales and large spatial scales, but it is experienced by those affected as changes in local weather. Climate change will gradually push the weather people experience outside the bounds of historic norms, resulting in unprecedented and extreme weather events. However, people do have the ability to learn about and respond to a changing climate. Therefore, connecting the weather people experience with their perceptions of climate change requires understanding how people infer the current state of the climate given their observations of weather. This learning process constitutes a first-order constraint on the rate of adaptation and is an important determinant of the dynamic adjustment costs associated with climate change. In this paper I explore two learning models that describe how local weather observations are translated into perceptions of climate change: an efficient Bayesian learning model and a simpler rolling-mean heuristic. Both have a period during which the learner's beliefs about the state of the climate are different from its true state, meaning the learner is exposed to a different range of extreme weather outcomes then they are prepared for. Using the example of surface temperature trends, I quantify this additional exposure to extreme heat events under both learning models and both RCP 8.5 and 2.6. Risk exposure increases for both learning models, but by substantially more for the rolling-mean learner. Moreover, there is an interaction between the learning model and the rate of climate change: the inefficient rolling-mean learner benefits much more from the slower rates of change under RCP 2.6 then the Bayesian. Finally, I present results from an experiment that suggests people are able to learn about a trending climate in a manner consistent with the Bayesian model.

  20. Risks Are From Change Of Climate In Ukraine

    OpenAIRE

    Victoria Shtets

    2011-01-01

    The article considered the most serious risks for the Ukraine from climate change, in particular the direct and indirect risks that report the problems with which Ukraine has already faced and are still waiting for her if she has not react on the global warming. Also some adaptation actions aspects are given for solving problems regarding climate change.

  1. [Analysis of changes in characteristics of arterial hypertension occupational risk in workers of nonferrous metallurgy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlasova, E M; Shliapnikov, D M; Lebedeva, T M

    2015-01-01

    The article covers changes in occupational cardiovascular risk for workers of nonferrous,metallurgy. Findings are that exposure to noise up to 94 dB with length of service increases possible atherosclerosis and metabolic syndrome. With 5 years of service, risk of the predicted conditions increases by 40.5%. When occupational exposure lasts over 5 years, risk of arterial hypertension increases. A group of workers without exposure to occupational factors appeared to have no connection between length of service and metabolic syndrome and arterial hypertension. Risk evolution modelling proved that risk of functional disorders in nonferrous metallurgy workers becomes unacceptable after 5 years of service (cardiovascular disorders are critical).

  2. Increased risk of fluorosis and methemoglobinemia diseases from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Current assessments of the impacts of climate variability and change on water resources commonly exclude groundwater. Thus, the identification of actual and potential health threatening elements in the groundwater, and linking up to climate variation and change at hydrologic catchment scale is an important ingredient for ...

  3. Uncertainty assessment of urban pluvial flood risk in a context of climate change adaptation decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian

    2014-01-01

    to increasing urban flood risk. Assessment of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis of current risk, drivers of change of risk over time, and measures to reduce the risk. However, such studies are often associated with large uncertainties. The uncertainties arise from...... uncertainty analysis, which can assess and quantify the overall uncertainty in relation to climate change adaptation to urban flash floods. The analysis is based on an uncertainty cascade that by means of Monte Carlo simulations of flood risk assessments incorporates climate change impacts as a key driver......There has been a significant increase in climatic extremes in many regions. In Central and Northern Europe, this has led to more frequent and more severe floods. Along with improved flood modelling technologies this has enabled development of economic assessment of climate change adaptation...

  4. Why are immigrants at increased risk for psychosis? Vitamin D insufficiency, epigenetic mechanisms, or both?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dealberto, M J

    2007-01-01

    European researchers have observed that schizophrenia is 3 times more frequent in immigrants than in native-born subjects. This increased risk is even higher in dark-skinned immigrants, and the second generation is more affected than the first one. Immigrant status is an important environmental risk factor not only for schizophrenia but also for other psychoses. The explanations proposed to date have been mainly related to epidemiological biases and psychological reasons, such as racism or social defeat, but no biological hypotheses have been tested so far. This article proposes two biological hypotheses related to changes in sun exposure, changes in diet, and stress associated with immigration, which would explain the increased risk for psychosis associated with immigrant status. (1) Vitamin D insufficiency has been proposed as a risk factor for schizophrenia. The main source of vitamin D is through photosynthesis by sun exposure, and dark skins need more sun exposure to maintain adequate blood levels. Vitamin D insufficiency in adulthood could explain why dark-skinned immigrants develop psychosis when moving to high latitude countries, and its insufficiency during pregnancy could explain why the observed risk is higher in the second generation. (2) The second hypothesis is that of epigenetics, with psychosis resulting from modifications in gene expression caused by changes in diet and/or stress related to immigration. The role of homocysteine and the vitamin B-complex, especially folic acid, in these changes in DNA transcription would vary according to the polymorphism of the methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase gene. The vitamin D insufficiency and epigenetics hypotheses are consistent with yet unexplained findings well known in the epidemiology of schizophrenia, such as the increased risk in the urban environment, the excess of winter births, the excess of schizophrenia births after maternal famine, and the shorter interbirth period before a schizophrenia birth

  5. Electronic Publishing in Science: Changes and Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinne, Otto

    1999-01-01

    Discussion of the Internet and the guidance of the World Wide Web Consortium focuses on scientific communication and electronic publishing. Considers the speed of communicating and disseminating information; quality issues; cost; library subscriptions; publishers; and risks and concerns, including the role of editors and reviewers or referees.…

  6. Climate change and farmers' mental health: risks and responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Helen L; Hogan, Anthony; Owen, Jennifer; Rickwood, Debra; Fragar, Lyn

    2011-03-01

    Climate change is exacerbating climate variability, evident in more frequent and severe weather-related disasters, such as droughts, fires, and floods. Most of what is known about the possible effects of climate change on rural mental health relates to prolonged drought. But though drought is known to be a disproportionate and general stressor, evidence is mixed and inconclusive. Over time, like drought other weather-related disasters may erode the social and economic bases on which farming communities depend. Rural vulnerability to mental health problems is greatly increased by socioeconomic disadvantage. Related factors may compound this, such as reduced access to health services as communities decline and a "stoical" culture that inhibits help-seeking. Australia has the world's most variable climate and is a major global agricultural producer. Yet despite Australia's (and, especially, rural communities') dependence on farmers' well-being and success, there is very little-and inconclusive-quantitative evidence about farmers' mental health. The aim of this review is to consider, with a view to informing other countries, how climate change and related factors may affect farmers' mental health in Australia. That information is a prerequisite to identifying, selecting, and evaluating adaptive strategies, to lessen the risks of adverse mental health outcomes. The authors identify the need for a systematic epidemiology of the mental health of farmers facing increasing climate change- related weather adversity.

  7. Genomic Changes in Normal Breast Tissue in Women at Normal Risk or at High Risk for Breast Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danforth, David N

    2016-01-01

    Sporadic breast cancer develops through the accumulation of molecular abnormalities in normal breast tissue, resulting from exposure to estrogens and other carcinogens beginning at adolescence and continuing throughout life. These molecular changes may take a variety of forms, including numerical and structural chromosomal abnormalities, epigenetic changes, and gene expression alterations. To characterize these abnormalities, a review of the literature has been conducted to define the molecular changes in each of the above major genomic categories in normal breast tissue considered to be either at normal risk or at high risk for sporadic breast cancer. This review indicates that normal risk breast tissues (such as reduction mammoplasty) contain evidence of early breast carcinogenesis including loss of heterozygosity, DNA methylation of tumor suppressor and other genes, and telomere shortening. In normal tissues at high risk for breast cancer (such as normal breast tissue adjacent to breast cancer or the contralateral breast), these changes persist, and are increased and accompanied by aneuploidy, increased genomic instability, a wide range of gene expression differences, development of large cancerized fields, and increased proliferation. These changes are consistent with early and long-standing exposure to carcinogens, especially estrogens. A model for the breast carcinogenic pathway in normal risk and high-risk breast tissues is proposed. These findings should clarify our understanding of breast carcinogenesis in normal breast tissue and promote development of improved methods for risk assessment and breast cancer prevention in women.

  8. Increased Suicide Risk in Patients with Hidradenitis Suppurativa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorlacius, Linnea; Cohen, Arnon D; Gislason, Gunnar H

    2018-01-01

    Patients with skin disorders are considered at a higher risk of depression and anxiety than the background population. Patients with hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) may be particularly affected. We explored the association between HS and depression, anxiety, and completed suicides in the Danish nat...

  9. Starting Hormone Therapy at Menopause Increases Breast Cancer Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    According to a January 28, 2011 article in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute, women who start taking menopausal hormone therapy around the time of menopause have a higher risk of breast cancer than women who begin taking hormones a few years later.

  10. Increased stroke risk in Bell's palsy patients without steroid treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, C-C; Su, Y-C; Chien, S-H; Ho, H-C; Hung, S-K; Lee, M-S; Chou, P; Chiu, B C-H; Huang, Y-S

    2013-04-01

    To investigate the risk of stroke development following a diagnosis of Bell's palsy in a nationwide follow-up study. Information on Bell's palsy and other factors relevant for stroke was obtained for 433218 eligible subjects without previous stroke who had ambulatory visit in 2004. Of those, 897 patients with Bell's palsy were identified. Over a median 2.9 years of follow-up, 4581 incident strokes were identified. We estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals [CI] with Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for age, sex, co-morbidities, and important risk factors. Standardized incidence ratio of stroke amongst patients with Bell's palsy was analyzed. Compared with non-Bell's palsy patients, patients with Bell's palsy had a 2.02-times (95% CI, 1.42-2.86) higher risk of stroke. The adjusted HR of developing stroke for patients with Bell's palsy treated with and without systemic steroid were 1.67 (95% CI, 0.69-4) and 2.10 (95%, 1.40-3.07), respectively. Patients with Bell's palsy carry a higher risk of stroke than the general population. Our data suggest that these patients might benefit from a more intensive stroke prevention therapy and regular follow-up after initial diagnosis. © 2012 The Author(s) European Journal of Neurology © 2012 EFNS.

  11. CIA increases cybersecurity Integrated approach to digital risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    The article gives an overview of activities of the cybersecurity group, which was set up in order to go a step further. They have launched a project to manage cybersecurity. The underlying principle is a general pattern that determines policies and the responsibilities for risk management.

  12. Drugged Driving: Increased Traffic Risks Involving Licit and Illicit Substances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilkinton, Melinda W.; Robertson, Angela; McCluskey, D. Lee

    2013-01-01

    Driving under the influence of drugs poses risks for traffic safety. Most research attention has been focused on the most prevalent drugs of abuse, such as alcohol, illegal drugs, and prescription drugs with high abuse potential. The objectives of this study were to determine the types of drugs used by convicted DUI offenders on the day of their…

  13. Maternal SSRI exposure increases the risk of autistic offspring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andalib, S; Emamhadi, M R; Yousefzadeh-Chabok, S

    2017-01-01

    , childhood, children, neurodevelopment were identified using databases PubMed and PMC, MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, and Google Scholar. Cochran's Q statistic-value (Q), degree of freedom (df), and I(2) indices (variation in odds ratio [OR] attributable to heterogeneity) were calculated to analyze the risk...

  14. Increased risk of arterial thromboembolic events after Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejer, N; Gotland, N; Uhre, M L

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: An association between infection and arterial thromboembolic events (ATE) has been suggested. Here we examined the risk of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke and other ATE after Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (SAB). METHODS: Danish register-based nation-wide observational cohort study...

  15. Does vital exhaustion increase the risk of type 2 diabetes?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Volden, Sasia; Wimmelmann, Cathrine Lawaetz; Flensborg-Madsen, Trine

    2017-01-01

    Background: There is evidence that both stress and depression have a causal relationship with type 2 diabetes suggesting that vital exhaustion (VE) too could be a risk factor. The association between VE and type 2 diabeteshas, however, not been investigated prospectively. Aim: To prospectively in...

  16. Micronutrient-fortified rice can increase hookworm infection risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Gier, Brechje; Campos Ponce, Maiza; Perignon, Marlene

    2016-01-01

    in environments with high infection pressure. When considering fortification of staple foods, a careful risk-benefit analysis is warranted, taking into account severity of micronutrient deficiencies and local prevalence of parasitic infections. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01706419....

  17. Suicide by occupation: does access to means increase the risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skegg, Keren; Firth, Hilda; Gray, Andrew; Cox, Brian

    2010-05-01

    To examine suicide by identified occupational groups in New Zealand over a period of 30 years, focusing on groups predicted to have high suicide rates because of access to and familiarity with particular methods of suicide. Suicide data (including open verdicts) for the period 1973-2004 were examined, excluding 1996 and 1997 for which occupational data were not available. Occupational groups of interest were dentists, doctors, farmers (including farm workers), hunters and cullers, military personnel, nurses, pharmacists, police and veterinarians. Crude mortality rates were calculated based on numbers in each occupational group at each quinquennial census, 1976-2001. Standardized mortality ratios were calculated using suicide rates in all employed groups (the standard population). Few of the occupations investigated had high risks of suicide as assessed by standardized mortality ratios, and some were at lower risk than the total employed population. Standardized mortality ratios were elevated for male nurses (1.7; 95% CI: 1.2-2.5), female nurses (1.3; 95% CI: 1.0-1.6), male hunters and cullers (3.0; 95% CI: 1.7-4.8), and female pharmacists (2.5; 95% CI: 0.8-5.9). Doctors, farmers and veterinarians were not at high risk, and men in the police and armed forces were at low risk. Access to means appeared to have influenced the method chosen. Nurses, doctors and pharmacists were more likely to use poisoning than were other employed people (3, 4 and 5 times respectively, compared with all others employed). Farmers and hunters and cullers were more than twice as likely as all others employed to use firearms. Access to means may be less important in some circumstances than in others, perhaps because of the presence of other factors that confer protection. Nevertheless, among the groups we studied with access to lethal means were three groups whose risk of suicide has so far received little attention in New Zealand: nurses, female pharmacists, and hunters and cullers.

  18. Increased Risk of Ischemic Stroke in Young Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Ching-Chih; Su, Yu-Chieh; Ho, Hsu-Chueh; Hung, Shih-Kai; Lee, Moon-Sing; Chiou, Wen-Yen; Chou, Pesus; Huang, Yung-Sung

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: Radiation/chemoradiotherapy-induced carotid stenosis and cerebrovascular events in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) can cause severe disability and even death. This study aimed to estimate the risk of ischemic stroke in this patient population over more than 10 years of follow-up. Methods and Materials: The study cohorts consisted of all patients hospitalized with a principal diagnosis of NPC (n = 1094), whereas patients hospitalized for an appendectomy during 1997 and 1998 (n = 4376) acted as the control group and surrogate for the general population. Cox proportional hazard model was performed as a means of comparing the stroke-free survival rate between the two cohorts after adjusting for possible confounding and risk factors. Results: Of the 292 patients with ischemic strokes, 62 (5.7%) were from the NPC cohort and 230 (5.3%) were from the control group. NPC patients ages 35–54 had a 1.66 times (95% CI, 1.16–2.86; p = 0.009) higher risk of ischemic stroke after adjusting for patient characteristics, comorbidities, geographic region, urbanization level of residence, and socioeconomic status. There was no statistical difference in ischemic stroke risk between the NPC patients and appendectomy patients ages 55–64 years (hazard ratio = 0.87; 95% CI, 0.56–1.33; p = 0.524) after adjusting for other factors. Conclusions: Young NPC patients carry a higher risk for ischemic stroke than the general population. Besides regular examinations of carotid duplex, different irradiation strategies or using new technique of radiotherapy, such as intensity modulated radiation therapy or volumetric modulated arc therapy, should be considered in young NPC patients.

  19. The female athlete triad: are elite athletes at increased risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torstveit, Monica Klungland; Sundgot-Borgen, Jorunn

    2005-02-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the percentage of elite athletes and controls at risk of the female athlete triad. A detailed questionnaire, which included questions regarding training and/or physical activity patterns, menstrual history, oral contraceptive use, weight history, eating patterns, dietary history, and the Body Dissatisfaction (BD) and Drive for Thinness (DT) subscales of the Eating Disorder Inventory (EDI), was prepared. The questionnaire was administered to the total population of female elite athletes in Norway representing the national teams at the junior or senior level, 13-39 yr of age (N = 938) and non-athlete controls in the same age group (N = 900). After exclusion, a total of 669 athletes (88%) and 607 controls (70%) completed the questionnaire satisfactorily. A higher percentage of controls (69.2%) than athletes (60.4%) was classified as being at risk of the Triad (P athletes reported use of pathogenic weight-control methods and had high BD subscale scores (P athletes reported menstrual dysfunction and stress fractures compared with controls (P athletes competing in leanness sports (70.1%) and the non-athlete control group (69.2%) was classified as being at risk of the Triad compared with athletes competing in non-leanness sports (55.3%) (P athletes competing in aesthetic sports (66.4%) than ball game sports (52.6%) was classified as being at risk of the Triad (P athletes competing in leanness sports and more non-athlete controls were classified as being at risk of the Triad compared with athletes competing in non-leanness sports.

  20. Gender inequality increases women's risk of hiv infection in Moshi, Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sa, Zhihong; Larsen, Ulla

    2008-07-01

    This study examined the hypothesis that multiple dimensions of gender inequality increase women's risk for HIV infection using a population-based survey of 1418 women aged 20 to 44 in Moshi, Tanzania. Three forms of HIV exposures were assessed reflecting gender power imbalance: economic exposures (age difference between partners and partner's contributions to children's expenses), physical exposures (coerced first sex and intimate partner violence) and social exposures (ever had problems conceiving). Behavioural risk factors included number of sexual partners for women in the last three years, partner had other wives or girlfriends, non-use of condom and alcohol use at least once a week in the last 12 months. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that a woman had a significantly elevated risk for HIV if she had a partner more than 10 years older (OR=2.5), her partner made low financial contributions to children's expenses (OR=1.7), or she experienced coerced first sex before age 18 years (OR=2.0) even after taking into account the effects of risk behaviour factors. The association between ever had problem conceiving and HIV infection was explained away by risk behaviour factors. The findings lend support to the hypothesis that economic deprivation and experience of sexual violence increase women's vulnerability to HIV, providing further evidence for extending the behavioural approach to HIV interventions to incorporate women's economic empowerment, elimination of gender-based violence and promotion of changing attitudes and behaviours among men.

  1. Understanding the real risks of changing employee benefit plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kane, Jon; St Amour, Jeffrey

    2005-01-01

    In an environment of constant change, corporations are looking to alter employee benefits programs to make them more responsive to employee and business needs. A complete risk assessment process is the key to preparing for changes to employee benefits programs by providing employers with an analysis of cost savings against the potential negative ramifications of change. This article outlines the steps involved in a complete review of risk assessment. It then discusses how employers can develop successful change management communication strategies if, after conducting a risk assessment, employers decide to move forward with alterations to their employee benefits programs.

  2. Framing adaptation: three aspects for climate change risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, Roger

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Substantial resources are being allocated to adaptation research and implementation. To use these resources wisely, framing the context within which adaptation decisions are made is critical. Three aspects are: Methods for assessing how much climate change to adapt to by when; Understanding the dynamic between different conceptual models for framing adaptation based on: a. Damages increasing proportionally with change, or b. Ricardian models that require adjustments to attain the 'new normal'; Adopting staged management strategies that depend on system status, which may range from business-as-usual to critical. General adaptation requirements and planning horizons need to have already been identified in scoping studies. Planning horizons include both operational and aspirational targets. Incremental adaptation can be informed by an aspirational goal far off into the future, but is undertaken through a shorter term operational approach. The need to anticipate long-term outcomes in advance is most relevant to measures that require large initial planning and investment, those with long lifetimes, or those where potential damages are irreversible and unacceptable. Five major sources of climate change uncertainty are relevant to assessing how much climate change to adapt to by when: ongoing climate variability and rate of change; past and future commitments to climate change; regional climate change projections; climate sensitivity; greenhouse gas emission scenarios and radiative forcing. These factors combine with different levels of importance depending on the relevant planning horizon. Short-term adaptation is most sensitive to the first and second factors, and long-term adaptation to the last three factors. These factors can be assessed within a probabilistic framework. Two conceptual models dominate assessments designed to inform adaptation. The IPCC Third and Fourth Assessment Reports clearly show that a great many risks increase proportionally with

  3. Psychosocial risks in the workplace: an increasing challenge for german and international health protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portuné, Roland

    2012-06-01

    Occupational health in a changing world has to face up to psychosocial risks to protect the health of employees now and in the future. Faster production, service and communication processes, a service- and knowledge-based society, an increasing proportion of intellectual work, growing complexity of work-related demands, new technologies and constant availability, mobility demands, and job insecurity contribute to the problem of psychosocial risks in the workplace. Psychosocial risks affect both physical and psychosocial health. There is scientific evidence of the link between psychosocial work-related stress and cardiovascular diseases, affective disorders or musculoskeletal disorders, especially chronic back pain.The Framework Directive on Safety and Health makes it very clear that employers are obliged "to ensure the safety and health of workers in every aspect relating to work". In spite of these far reaching obligations, a kind of taboo sometimes makes it hard to focus on topics that have psychosocial implications. A large number of models, instruments and methods are now available to gauge psychosocial risks in the workplace. Given the clear contrast between knowledge and application, there is not a lack of knowledge in this regard, but rather a lack of application.In Germany, statutory accident insurance institutions are guided by two key principles: putting prevention before rehabilitation and rehabilitation before compensation. To prevent work-related health risks the BG RCI has developed several prevention tools to help employers and employees deal with psychosocial risks in the workplace.

  4. Impacts of rising sea temperature on krill increase risks for predators in the Scotia Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Emily S; Hill, Simeon L; Hinke, Jefferson T; Phillips, Tony; Watters, George M

    2018-01-01

    Climate change is a threat to marine ecosystems and the services they provide, and reducing fishing pressure is one option for mitigating the overall consequences for marine biota. We used a minimally realistic ecosystem model to examine how projected effects of ocean warming on the growth of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, might affect populations of krill and dependent predators (whales, penguins, seals, and fish) in the Scotia Sea. We also investigated the potential to mitigate depletion risk for predators by curtailing krill fishing at different points in the 21st century. The projected effects of ocean warming on krill biomass were strongest in the northern Scotia Sea, with a ≥40% decline in the mass of individual krill. Projections also suggest a 25% chance that krill biomass will fall below an established depletion threshold (75% of its unimpacted level), with consequent risks for some predator populations, especially penguins. Average penguin abundance declined by up to 30% of its unimpacted level, with up to a 50% chance of falling below the depletion threshold. Simulated krill fishing at currently permitted harvest rates further increased risks for depletion, and stopping fishing offset the increased risks associated with ocean warming in our model to some extent. These results varied by location and species group. Risk reductions at smaller spatial scales also differed from those at the regional level, which suggests that some predator populations may be more vulnerable than others to future changes in krill biomass. However, impacts on predators did not always map directly to those for krill. Our findings indicate the importance of identifying vulnerable marine populations and targeting protection measures at appropriate spatial scales, and the potential for spatially-structured management to avoid aggravating risks associated with rising ocean temperatures. This may help balance tradeoffs among marine ecosystem services in an uncertain future.

  5. Impacts of rising sea temperature on krill increase risks for predators in the Scotia Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Simeon L.; Hinke, Jefferson T.; Phillips, Tony; Watters, George M.

    2018-01-01

    Climate change is a threat to marine ecosystems and the services they provide, and reducing fishing pressure is one option for mitigating the overall consequences for marine biota. We used a minimally realistic ecosystem model to examine how projected effects of ocean warming on the growth of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, might affect populations of krill and dependent predators (whales, penguins, seals, and fish) in the Scotia Sea. We also investigated the potential to mitigate depletion risk for predators by curtailing krill fishing at different points in the 21st century. The projected effects of ocean warming on krill biomass were strongest in the northern Scotia Sea, with a ≥40% decline in the mass of individual krill. Projections also suggest a 25% chance that krill biomass will fall below an established depletion threshold (75% of its unimpacted level), with consequent risks for some predator populations, especially penguins. Average penguin abundance declined by up to 30% of its unimpacted level, with up to a 50% chance of falling below the depletion threshold. Simulated krill fishing at currently permitted harvest rates further increased risks for depletion, and stopping fishing offset the increased risks associated with ocean warming in our model to some extent. These results varied by location and species group. Risk reductions at smaller spatial scales also differed from those at the regional level, which suggests that some predator populations may be more vulnerable than others to future changes in krill biomass. However, impacts on predators did not always map directly to those for krill. Our findings indicate the importance of identifying vulnerable marine populations and targeting protection measures at appropriate spatial scales, and the potential for spatially-structured management to avoid aggravating risks associated with rising ocean temperatures. This may help balance tradeoffs among marine ecosystem services in an uncertain future

  6. Impacts of rising sea temperature on krill increase risks for predators in the Scotia Sea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily S Klein

    Full Text Available Climate change is a threat to marine ecosystems and the services they provide, and reducing fishing pressure is one option for mitigating the overall consequences for marine biota. We used a minimally realistic ecosystem model to examine how projected effects of ocean warming on the growth of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, might affect populations of krill and dependent predators (whales, penguins, seals, and fish in the Scotia Sea. We also investigated the potential to mitigate depletion risk for predators by curtailing krill fishing at different points in the 21st century. The projected effects of ocean warming on krill biomass were strongest in the northern Scotia Sea, with a ≥40% decline in the mass of individual krill. Projections also suggest a 25% chance that krill biomass will fall below an established depletion threshold (75% of its unimpacted level, with consequent risks for some predator populations, especially penguins. Average penguin abundance declined by up to 30% of its unimpacted level, with up to a 50% chance of falling below the depletion threshold. Simulated krill fishing at currently permitted harvest rates further increased risks for depletion, and stopping fishing offset the increased risks associated with ocean warming in our model to some extent. These results varied by location and species group. Risk reductions at smaller spatial scales also differed from those at the regional level, which suggests that some predator populations may be more vulnerable than others to future changes in krill biomass. However, impacts on predators did not always map directly to those for krill. Our findings indicate the importance of identifying vulnerable marine populations and targeting protection measures at appropriate spatial scales, and the potential for spatially-structured management to avoid aggravating risks associated with rising ocean temperatures. This may help balance tradeoffs among marine ecosystem services in an

  7. Worsening Cognitive Impairment and Neurodegenerative Pathology Progressively Increase Risk for Delirium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Daniel H.J.; Skelly, Donal T.; Murray, Carol; Hennessy, Edel; Bowen, Jordan; Norton, Samuel; Brayne, Carol; Rahkonen, Terhi; Sulkava, Raimo; Sanderson, David J.; Rawlins, J. Nicholas; Bannerman, David M.; MacLullich, Alasdair M.J.; Cunningham, Colm

    2015-01-01

    Background Delirium is a profound neuropsychiatric disturbance precipitated by acute illness. Although dementia is the major risk factor this has typically been considered a binary quantity (i.e., cognitively impaired versus cognitively normal) with respect to delirium risk. We used humans and mice to address the hypothesis that the severity of underlying neurodegenerative changes and/or cognitive impairment progressively alters delirium risk. Methods Humans in a population-based longitudinal study, Vantaa 85+, were followed for incident delirium. Odds for reporting delirium at follow-up (outcome) were modeled using random-effects logistic regression, where prior cognitive impairment measured by Mini-Mental State Exam (MMSE) (exposure) was considered. To address whether underlying neurodegenerative pathology increased susceptibility to acute cognitive change, mice at three stages of neurodegenerative disease progression (ME7 model of neurodegeneration: controls, 12 weeks, and 16 weeks) were assessed for acute cognitive dysfunction upon systemic inflammation induced by bacterial lipopolysaccharide (LPS; 100 μg/kg). Synaptic and axonal correlates of susceptibility to acute dysfunction were assessed using immunohistochemistry. Results In the Vantaa cohort, 465 persons (88.4 ± 2.8 years) completed MMSE at baseline. For every MMSE point lost, risk of incident delirium increased by 5% (p = 0.02). LPS precipitated severe and fluctuating cognitive deficits in 16-week ME7 mice but lower incidence or no deficits in 12-week ME7 and controls, respectively. This was associated with progressive thalamic synaptic loss and axonal pathology. Conclusion A human population-based cohort with graded severity of existing cognitive impairment and a mouse model with progressing neurodegeneration both indicate that the risk of delirium increases with greater severity of pre-existing cognitive impairment and neuropathology. PMID:25239680

  8. Increased Risk of Peptic Ulcers Following a Cholecystectomy for Gallstones

    OpenAIRE

    Tsai, Ming-Chieh; Huang, Chung-Chien; Kao, Li-Ting; Lin, Herng-Ching; Lee, Cha-Ze

    2016-01-01

    This retrospective cohort study examined the relationship between a cholecystectomy and the subsequent risk of peptic ulcers using a population-based database. Data for this study were retrieved from the Taiwan Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2005. This study included 5209 patients who had undergone a cholecystectomy for gallstones and 15,627 sex- and age-matched comparison patients. We individually tracked each patient for a 5-year period to identify those who subsequently received a ...

  9. Virtual driving and risk taking: do racing games increase risk-taking cognitions, affect, and behaviors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Peter; Kubitzki, Jörg; Guter, Stephanie; Frey, Dieter

    2007-03-01

    Research has consistently shown that aggressive video console and PC games elicit aggressive cognitions, affect, and behaviors. Despite the increasing popularity of racing (driving) games, nothing is known about the psychological impact of this genre. This study investigated whether playing racing games affects cognitions, affect, and behaviors that can promote risk taking in actual road traffic situations. In Study 1, the authors found that the frequency of playing racing games was positively associated with competitive driving, obtrusive driving, and car accidents; a negative association with cautious driving was observed. To determine cause and effect, in Study 2, the authors manipulated whether participants played 1 of 3 racing games or 1 of 3 neutral games. Participants who played a racing game subsequently reported a higher accessibility of cognitions and affect positively associated with risk taking than did participants who played a neutral game. Finally, on a more behavioral level, in Study 3, the authors found that men who played a racing game subsequently took higher risks in computer-simulated critical road traffic situations than did men who played a neutral game. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed. ((c) 2007 APA, all rights reserved).

  10. Childhood maltreatment increases the risk of suicide attempt in schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan, Ahmed N; Stuart, Elizabeth A; De Luca, Vincenzo

    2016-10-01

    In this study, we evaluated the effect of several types of childhood trauma on lifetime suicide attempt in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders. We interviewed 361 participants with schizophrenia. Childhood trauma was collected using the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ). Suicidal attempts were confirmed using subjective and objective validated scales. We applied an observational study design using propensity scores to match individuals with history of childhood trauma to those without past history of trauma. We used logistic regression models to estimate the effect of each type of childhood maltreatment on suicidal attempts controlling for demographics and known suicidal risk factors. In our sample, 39.1% of the subjects had lifetime suicide attempt. After matching the two groups and controlling for demographics and clinical confounders, total trauma score and the majority of childhood maltreatment subtypes predicted suicide attempt (odds ratios ranged from 1.74 to 2.49 with p-values ranging from 0.001 to 0.02). Physical neglect was not significantly associated with suicide attempt in our sample (p=0.94). Childhood maltreatment is confirmed to be a strong independent risk factor for suicidal attempts in schizophrenia. The risk is probably aggravated by the development of depressive symptoms and feeling of hopelessness in the adult life. Early screening and modified psychosocial treatment are recommended for psychotic individuals with trauma history. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. An Increased Risk of Osteoporosis during Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annapoorna, N; Rao, G Venkateswara; Reddy, N S; Rambabu, P; Rao, K R S Samabasiva

    2004-01-01

    Osteoporosis is characterized by decreased bone mineral density and mechanistic imbalances of bone tissue that may result in reduced skeletal strength and an enhanced susceptibility to fractures. Osteoporosis in its most common form affects the elderly (both sexes) and all racial groups of human beings. Multiple environmental risk factors like acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) are believed to be one of the causes of osteoporosis. Recently a high incidence of osteoporosis has been observed in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected individuals. The etiology of this occurrence in HIV infections is controversial. This problem seems to be more frequent in patients receiving potent antiretroviral therapy. In AIDS, the main suggested risk factors for the development of osteoporosis are use of protease inhibitors, longer duration of HIV infection, lower body weight before antiretroviral therapy, high viral load. Variations in serum parameters like osteocalcin, c-telopeptide, levels of elements like Calcium, Magnesium, Phosphorus, concentration of vitamin-D metabolites, lactate levels, bicarbonate concentrations, amount of alkaline phosphatase are demonstrated in the course of development of osteoporosis. OPG/RANKL/RANK system is final mediator of bone remodeling. Bone mineral density (BMD) test is of added value to assess the risk of osteoporosis in patients infected with AIDS. The biochemical markers also aid in this assessment. Clinical management mostly follows the lines of treatment of osteoporosis and osteopenia.

  12. Endogenous technological and population change under increasing water scarcity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pande, S.; Ertsen, M.; Sivapalan, M.

    2014-01-01

    While the proposed model is a rather simple model of a coupled human–water system, it is shown to be capable of replicating patterns of technological, population, production and consumption per capita changes. The model demonstrates that technological change may indeed ameliorate the effects of

  13. Reducing Vulnerability and Increasing Resiliency to Climate Change

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Governments and the international development community generally have responded to various aspects of the global climate change crisis, but questions remain about whether the right actions are being pursued, how best to respond, and what the future holds. Though climate change is a global phenomenon, without ...

  14. Adaptation to Increase Resilience to Climate Change in Ethiopian ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate change and agriculture in Ethiopia Scientists are predicting that rainfall in Ethiopia will be more variable, with more drought- and flood-related incidents in the future. Projected rainfall changes will make Ethiopia even more vulnerable to harvest and food shortfalls. Small-scale farmers will need to adopt water ...

  15. Increased sensitivity to climate change in disturbed ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kröel-Dulay, György; Ransijn, Johannes; Schmidt, Inger Kappel; Beier, Claus; De Angelis, Paolo; de Dato, Giovanbattista; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Emmett, Bridget; Estiarte, Marc; Garadnai, János; Kongstad, Jane; Kovács-Láng, Edit; Larsen, Klaus Steenberg; Liberati, Dario; Ogaya, Romà; Riis-Nielsen, Torben; Smith, Andrew R; Sowerby, Alwyn; Tietema, Albert; Penuelas, Josep

    2015-03-24

    Human domination of the biosphere includes changes to disturbance regimes, which push many ecosystems towards early-successional states. Ecological theory predicts that early-successional ecosystems are more sensitive to perturbations than mature systems, but little evidence supports this relationship for the perturbation of climate change. Here we show that vegetation (abundance, species richness and species composition) across seven European shrublands is quite resistant to moderate experimental warming and drought, and responsiveness is associated with the dynamic state of the ecosystem, with recently disturbed sites responding to treatments. Furthermore, most of these responses are not rapid (2-5 years) but emerge over a longer term (7-14 years). These results suggest that successional state influences the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate change, and that ecosystems recovering from disturbances may be sensitive to even modest climatic changes. A research bias towards undisturbed ecosystems might thus lead to an underestimation of the impacts of climate change.

  16. Climate Change - Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Katherine; Steffen, Will; Schellnhuber, Hans J.

    Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009 (the 15th Conference of the Parties, COP-15) will be a critical step in developing a global response to the threat of climate change caused by human activities. The primary scientific input to those...... of this volume. The writing team has, in addition to presentations at the Congress, drawn upon recent publications in the scientific literature to create this synthesis. This report has been critically reviewed by representatives of the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP), by the parallel session chairs......Past societies have reacted when they understood that their own activities were causing deleterious environmental change by controlling or modifying the offending activities. The scientific evidence has now become overwhelming that human activities, especially the combustion of fossil fuels...

  17. Climate change increases deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat in north-western Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Fels-Klerx, H J; Olesen, Jørgen E; Madsen, M S

    2012-01-01

    will be earlier in the season because of climate change effects, about 1 to 2 weeks. Deoxynivalenol contamination was found to increase in most of the study region, with an increase of the original concentrations by up to 3 times. The study results may inform governmental and industrial risk managers to underpin...... decision-making and planning processes in north-western Europe. On the local level, deoxynivalenol contamination should be closely monitored to pick out wheat batches with excess levels at the right time. Using predictive models on a more local scale could be helpful to assist other monitoring measures...

  18. Extreme Temperatures May Increase Risk for Low Birth Weight at Term

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... may increase risk for low birth weight at term, NIH study suggests Monday, February 27, 2017 Extreme ... may increase the risk that infants born at term will be of low birth weight, according to ...

  19. Psycho Educational Group Intervention for Women at Increased Risk for Breast Cancer

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kash, Kathryn

    1997-01-01

    ... skills in women at increased risk for breast cancer; (2) to examine the impact of a psychoeducational intervention on the endpoint variables of quality of life and adherence to screening in women at increased risk for breast cancer; and (3...

  20. [Urbanization--a factor that increases the risk for health].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fridman, K B; Kriukova, T V

    2015-01-01

    The negative impact of urbanization on public health is obvious. However; due to the comprehensiveness and polymorphicity of its manifestations there are not established criteria for them. Health risk methodology allows, in principle, to obtain quantitative indices of the separate results of the impact on the health status of the citizens of metropolis that can be extremely effective in this area. The total cross-media riskfrom traffic pollution, drinking water quality, open ponds, noise, etc. permits to use of hygiene criteria in urban planning, insurance, taxation, etc.

  1. Bacterial infection increases risk of carcinogenesis by targeting mitochondria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strickertsson, Jesper A.B.; Desler, Claus; Rasmussen, Lene Juel

    2017-01-01

    pathways, and compares the impact of the bacterial alteration of mitochondrial function to that of cancer. Bacterial virulence factors have been demonstrated to induce mutations of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and to modulate DNA repair pathways of the mitochondria. Furthermore, virulence factors can induce...... or impair the intrinsic apoptotic pathway. The effect of bacterial targeting of mitochondria is analogous to behavior of mitochondria in a wide array of tumours, and this strongly suggests that mitochondrial targeting of bacteria is a risk factor for carcinogenesis....

  2. Association of Increasing GFR with Change in Albuminuria in the General Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melsom, Toralf; Stefansson, Vidar; Schei, Jørgen; Solbu, Marit; Jenssen, Trond; Wilsgaard, Tom; Eriksen, Bjørn O

    2016-12-07

    Hyperfiltration at the single-nephron level has been proposed as an early stage of kidney dysfunction of different origins. Evidence supporting this hypothesis in humans is lacking, because there is no method of measuring single-nephron GFR in humans. However, increased whole-kidney GFR in the same individual implies an increased single-nephron GFR, because the number of nephrons does not increase with age. We hypothesized that an increase in GFR would be associated with an increased albumin-to-creatinine ratio in a cohort of the general population. We measured GFR by iohexol clearance at baseline in 2007-2009 and follow-up after 5.6 years in a representative sample of 1246 persons (aged 50-62 years) who were nondiabetic from the general population of Tromso, northern Norway. Participants were without cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, or diabetes at baseline. We investigated the association between change in GFR and change in albumin-to-creatinine ratio. Increased GFR was defined as a positive change in GFR (change in GFR>0 ml/min) from baseline to follow-up. An albumin-to-creatinine ratio >30 mg/g was classified as albuminuria. Change in GFR was positively associated with a change in albumin-to-creatinine ratio in the entire cohort in the multiple linear regression. The albumin-to-creatinine ratio follow-up -to-albumin-to-creatinine ratio baseline ratio increased by 8.0% (95% confidence interval, 1.4 to 15.0) per SD increase in change in GFR. When participants with increased GFR (n=343) were compared with those with a reduced GFR (n=903), the ratio increased by 16.3% (95% confidence interval, 1.1 to 33.7). The multivariable adjusted odds ratio for incident albuminuria (n=14) was 4.98 (95% confidence interval, 1.49 to 16.13) for those with an increased GFR (yes/no). Increasing GFR is associated with an increase in albumin-to-creatinine ratio and incident albuminuria in the general nondiabetic population. These findings support single-nephron hyperfiltration

  3. Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2012-01-01

    to identify and assess adaptation options in the urban context. An integrated approach is adopted by incorporating climate change impact assessment, flood inundation modeling, economic tool, and risk assessment, hereby developing a step-by-step process for cost-benefit assessment of climate change adaptation......Climate change is likely to affect the water cycle by influencing the precipitation patterns. It is important to integrate the anticipated changes into the design of urban drainage in response to the increased risk level in cities. This paper presents a pluvial flood risk assessment framework...

  4. Increased risk for ovarian cancer and borderline ovarian tumours in subfertile women with endometriosis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buis, C. C. M.; van Leeuwen, F. E.; Mooij, T. M.; Burger, C. W.; Lambalk, Cornelis B.; Kortman, Marian; Laven, Joop S. E.; Jansen, Cees A. M.; Helmerhorst, Frans M.; Cohlen, Ben J.; Willemsen, Wim N. P.; Smeenk, Jesper M. J.; Simons, Arnold H. M.; van der Veen, Fulco; Evers, Johannes L. H.; van Dop, Peter A.; Macklon, Nicholas S.

    2013-01-01

    Is ovarian or extra-ovarian endometriosis associated with an increased risk of ovarian cancer and borderline ovarian tumours (BOT)? We found a 3- to 8-fold increased risk of ovarian tumours associated with endometriosis: the magnitude of the risk increase depended on the definition of endometriosis.

  5. Energy sector vulnerability to climate change: adaptation options to increase resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newmark, R. L.; Bilello, D.; Macknick, J.; Hallett, K. C.; Anderson, R.; Tidwell, V. C.; Zamuda, C.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change will affect the energy sector in multiple ways. Potential impacts include those directly affecting energy infrastructure and operations, such as sea level rise combined with storm surge; increased frequency or intensity extreme events such as hurricanes, floods or droughts; alterations in the hydrologic cycle; as well as those indirectly affecting energy demand and system efficiencies such as increased average temperatures and heat waves, particularly during peak summer demand. Although these changes and challenges occur on different timescales; adaptation options must consider both long-term (chronic) changes as well as short-term (acute) affects as well as the benefits derived from adaptation actions relative to cost, degree of resiliency gained, and the probability of exposure to a given risk. Different energy sector stakeholders tend to focus on response strategies that address specific spatial and temporal scales based on their perceived risks. Here we assess climate change impacts to the Nation's electric sector reliability and consider potential responses necessary to ensure energy security and sustainability. For specific examples such as options to reduce freshwater needs for electricity generation or demand response strategies for extreme heat events, we examine both the technical and economic implications of adopting those strategies, including the national/regional costs for their implementation.

  6. Stress-induced alterations in estradiol sensitivity increase risk for obesity in women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michopoulos, Vasiliki

    2016-11-01

    The prevalence of obesity in the United States continues to rise, increasing individual vulnerability to an array of adverse health outcomes. One factor that has been implicated causally in the increased accumulation of fat and excess food intake is the activity of the limbic-hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (LHPA) axis in the face of relentless stressor exposure. However, translational and clinical research continues to understudy the effects sex and gonadal hormones and LHPA axis dysfunction in the etiology of obesity even though women continue to be at greater risk than men for stress-induced disorders, including depression, emotional feeding and obesity. The current review will emphasize the need for sex-specific evaluation of the relationship between stress exposure and LHPA axis activity on individual risk for obesity by summarizing data generated by animal models currently being leveraged to determine the etiology of stress-induced alterations in feeding behavior and metabolism. There exists a clear lack of translational models that have been used to study female-specific risk. One translational model of psychosocial stress exposure that has proven fruitful in elucidating potential mechanisms by which females are at increased risk for stress-induced adverse health outcomes is that of social subordination in socially housed female macaque monkeys. Data from subordinate female monkeys suggest that increased risk for emotional eating and the development of obesity in females may be due to LHPA axis-induced changes in the behavioral and physiological sensitivity of estradiol. The lack in understanding of the mechanisms underlying these alterations necessitate the need to account for the effects of sex and gonadal hormones in the rationale, design, implementation, analysis and interpretation of results in our studies of stress axis function in obesity. Doing so may lead to the identification of novel therapeutic targets with which to combat stress-induced obesity

  7. 'Weather Value at Risk': A uniform approach to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prettenthaler, Franz; Köberl, Judith; Bird, David Neil

    2016-02-01

    We extend the concept of 'Weather Value at Risk' - initially introduced to measure the economic risks resulting from current weather fluctuations - to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change. This is illustrated using the examples of wheat cultivation and summer tourism in (parts of) Sardinia. Based on climate scenario data from four different regional climate models we study the change in the risk of weather-related income losses between some reference (1971-2000) and some future (2041-2070) period. Results from both examples suggest an increase in weather-related risks of income losses due to climate change, which is somewhat more pronounced for summer tourism. Nevertheless, income from wheat cultivation is at much higher risk of weather-related losses than income from summer tourism, both under reference and future climatic conditions. A weather-induced loss of at least 5% - compared to the income associated with average reference weather conditions - shows a 40% (80%) probability of occurrence in the case of wheat cultivation, but only a 0.4% (16%) probability of occurrence in the case of summer tourism, given reference (future) climatic conditions. Whereas in the agricultural example increases in the weather-related income risks mainly result from an overall decrease in average wheat yields, the heightened risk in the tourism example stems mostly from a change in the weather-induced variability of tourism incomes. With the extended 'Weather Value at Risk' concept being able to capture both, impacts from changes in the mean and the variability of the climate, it is a powerful tool for presenting and disseminating the results of climate change impact assessments. Due to its flexibility, the concept can be applied to any economic sector and therefore provides a valuable tool for cross-sectoral comparisons of climate change impacts, but also for the assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B

  8. Cortisol and testosterone increase financial risk taking and may destabilize markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cueva, Carlos; Roberts, R. Edward; Spencer, Tom; Rani, Nisha; Tempest, Michelle; Tobler, Philippe N.; Herbert, Joe; Rustichini, Aldo

    2015-01-01

    It is widely known that financial markets can become dangerously unstable, yet it is unclear why. Recent research has highlighted the possibility that endogenous hormones, in particular testosterone and cortisol, may critically influence traders’ financial decision making. Here we show that cortisol, a hormone that modulates the response to physical or psychological stress, predicts instability in financial markets. Specifically, we recorded salivary levels of cortisol and testosterone in people participating in an experimental asset market (N = 142) and found that individual and aggregate levels of endogenous cortisol predict subsequent risk-taking and price instability. We then administered either cortisol (single oral dose of 100 mg hydrocortisone, N = 34) or testosterone (three doses of 10 g transdermal 1% testosterone gel over 48 hours, N = 41) to young males before they played an asset trading game. We found that both cortisol and testosterone shifted investment towards riskier assets. Cortisol appears to affect risk preferences directly, whereas testosterone operates by inducing increased optimism about future price changes. Our results suggest that changes in both cortisol and testosterone could play a destabilizing role in financial markets through increased risk taking behaviour, acting via different behavioural pathways. PMID:26135946

  9. Increasing risk of compound flooding from storm surge and rainfall for major US coastal cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, Thomas; Jain, Shaleen; Bender, Jens; Meyers, Steven; Luther, Mark

    2016-04-01

    Flood risk is a well-known facet of natural hazards along the US coastline where nearly 40% of the population resides in coastal counties. Given the heavy reliance on the coastal zone for natural resources and economic activity, flood preparedness and safety is a key element of long-term resilience. A clear understanding of the various flood types and changes in the frequency of their occurrence is critical towards reliable estimates of vulnerability and potential impacts in the near-term as well as into the future. When the two main flood drivers for coastal areas storm surge and heavy precipitation occur in tandem the potential for significant flooding is much greater than from either in isolation. Exploring the probability of these 'compound events' and understanding the processes driving them is essential to mitigate the associated high impact risks. For the contiguous US the likelihood of the joint occurrence of the two phenomena is largely unknown. Here we show - using storm surge and precipitation records spanning the last century - that the risk of compound flooding is higher for the US east and Gulf coasts, relative to the west coast. We also show that the number of compound events has increased significantly over the last century along large coastline stretches including many of the major coastal cities. For New York City - as an example - this increase is attributed to a shift towards storm surge weather patterns also favouring high precipitation. Preliminary analyses reveal that these synoptic scale changes are closely linked to large scale and low frequency climate variations. Our results demonstrate the importance of assessing the risk of compound flooding within the design process of coastal and urban infrastructure in a non-stationary framework and to explore the potential effects of climate change on these high impact events.

  10. Cardiovascular Risk is not Increased in Patients with Chronic Urticaria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Egeberg, Alexander; Kofoed, Kristian; Gislason, Gunnar H

    2017-01-01

    was significantly associated with having received a prior diagnosis of hyperlipidaemia (6). Despite the above observations, no study has examined a possible association between CU and cardiovascular (CV) disease. We therefore investigated the risk of myocardial infarction (MI), ischaemic stroke, CV death, and major...... in an Italian cohort as between 0.02% and 0.38%, whereas a German study showed a lifetime prevalence of CU at 1.8% (2, 3). While an association between CU and certain autoimmune diseases is well-established (3), CSU was surprisingly associated with obesity in a recent Italian study (4). Moreover, in a South...... Korean cohort of 131 patients with CU, metabolic syndrome was present in 30% of patients, and these individuals had particularly poor clinical outcomes and a more severe disease course (5). Finally, a population-based Taiwanese study of 9798 adults with CU recently showed that the condition...

  11. Primary venous insufficiency increases risk of deep vein thrombosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaydakov, Maxim E; Comerota, Anthony J; Lurie, Fedor

    2016-04-01

    Varicose veins have been recognized as a risk factor for deep vein thrombosis (DVT). However, venous reflux has not carried the same correlation. This study evaluated the association between primary valvular reflux and DVT. We performed a nested case-control study with enrollment of outpatients presenting to the vascular laboratory with signs and symptoms of DVT. All patients had a complete bilateral venous duplex examination evaluating for DVT and superficial and deep venous valvular reflux. Eighty-seven patients with confirmed DVT on venous duplex were selected for the study group. The control group was randomly selected from the same cohort in a 4:1 ratio matched by age and gender (n = 348). Groups were compared for the prevalence of deep and superficial reflux. DVT outpatients were 4.7-times more likely to have primary valvular reflux than symptomatic controls (65.5% vs 29.0%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.8-7.7; P superficial reflux was 4.6-times more prevalent (43.7% vs 14.4%; odds ratio, 4.62; 95% CI, 2.75-7.77; P superficial reflux than non-DVT patients (13.8% vs 6.6%, 95% CI, 1.08-4.75; P = .044). The prevalence of primary valvular reflux in patients with DVT is significantly higher than expected. Reflux may be considered as a novel risk factor for DVT. Two-thirds of patients with DVT have pre-existent primary chronic venous disease, which is likely to contribute to post-thrombotic morbidity. Copyright © 2016 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Increased sensitivity to climate change in disturbed ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kroël-Dulay, György; Ransijn, Johannes; Schmidt, Inger Kappel

    2015-01-01

    this relationship for the perturbation of climate change. Here we show that vegetation (abundance, species richness and species composition) across seven European shrublands is quite resistant to moderate experimental warming and drought, and responsiveness is associated with the dynamic state of the ecosystem......Human domination of the biosphere includes changes to disturbance regimes, which push many ecosystems towards early-successional states. Ecological theory predicts that early-successional ecosystems are more sensitive to perturbations than mature systems, but little evidence supports......, with recently disturbed sites responding to treatments. Furthermore, most of these responses are not rapid (2-5 years) but emerge over a longer term (7-14 years). These results suggest that successional state influences the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate change, and that ecosystems recovering from...

  13. The increased atmospheric greenhouse effect and regional climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groenaas, S. [Bergen Univ. (Norway)

    1996-03-01

    This paper was read at the workshop ``The Norwegian Climate and Ozone Research Programme`` held on 11-12 March 1996. The main information for predicting future climate changes comes from integrating coupled climate models of the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere. Regional climate change may be studied from the global integrations, however, resolution is coarse because of insufficient computer power. Attempts are being made to get more regional details out of the global integrations by ``downscaling`` the latter. This can be done in two ways. Firstly, limited area models with high resolution are applied, driven by the global results as boundary values. Secondly, statistical relationships have been found between observed meteorological parameters, like temperature and precipitation, and analyzed large scale gridded fields. The derived relations are then used on similar data from climate runs to give local interpretations. A review is given of literature on recent observations of climate variations and on predicted regional climate change. 18 refs., 4 figs.

  14. CHANGING PATTERN OF CARDIOVASCULAR RISK WITH ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    FOBUR

    Cardiovascular complications are the most important cause of morbidity and mortality expected to increase most in countries with the least. 1 developed public health care systems . Epidemiological and clinical trial data have estimated that 60–70% of all patients with type 2. 2 diabetes will die from CVD . This is particularly.

  15. Patients at increased fracture risk: identification and pharmacological treatment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klop, C.

    2016-01-01

    Fragility fractures are common and are associated with a substantial burden for patients and the healthcare system. Hip fractures in particular are associated with increased morbidity, institutionalisation, and even mortality with a mortality rate between 20-30% in the first year. This burden is

  16. Spatial uninformative sounds increase sensitivity for visual motion change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Staufenbiel, Sabine M.; van der Lubbe, Robert Henricus Johannes; Talsma, D.

    2011-01-01

    It has recently been shown that spatially uninformative sounds can cause a visual stimulus to pop out from an array of similar distractor stimuli when that sound is presented in temporal proximity to a feature change in the visual stimulus. Until now, this effect has predominantly been demonstrated

  17. Changes in spore chemistry and appearance with increasing maturity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fraser, W.T.; Watson, J.S.; Sephton, M.A.; Lomax, B.H.; Harrington, G.; Gosling, W.D.; Self, S.

    2014-01-01

    Sporopollenin is the primary biopolymer found in the walls of pollen and spores; during maturation sporopollenin undergoes a number of discrete chemical changes, despite maintaining identifiable morphological features which can be exploited for palynological study. Here we report the results of

  18. Cross continental increase in methane ebullition under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aben, Ralf C. H.; Barros, Nathan; van Donk, Ellen; Frenken, Thijs; Hilt, Sabine; Kazanjian, Garabet; Lamers, Leon P. M.; Peeters, Edwin T. H. M.; Roelofs, Jan G. M.; de Senerpont Domis, Lisette N.; Stephan, Susanne; Velthuis, Mandy; Van de Waal, Dedmer B.; Wik, Martin; Thornton, Brett F.; Wilkinson, Jeremy; DelSontro, Tonya; Kosten, Sarian

    2017-01-01

    Methane (CH4) strongly contributes to observed global warming. As natural CH4 emissions mainly originate from wet ecosystems, it is important to unravel how climate change may affect these emissions. This is especially true for ebullition (bubble flux from sediments), a pathway that has long been

  19. The Gradual Increase of Responsibility: Scaffolds for Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collet, Vicki S.

    2011-01-01

    My purpose in this collective case study was to identify ways in which teacher education, and coaching specifically, supports teacher change. I was particularly interested in considering what types of feedback are best at what times in the teacher education process. I investigated how coaching and other teacher education processes support…

  20. Increase in sexual risk behavior and prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis among adolescents in Northern Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitehead, Sara J; Leelawiwat, Wanna; Jeeyapant, Supaporn; Chaikummao, Supaporn; Papp, John; Kilmarx, Peter H; Markowitz, Lauri E; Tappero, Jordan W; Chaowanachan, Thanyanan; Uthaivoravit, Wat; van Griensven, Frits

    2008-10-01

    Monitoring changes in adolescent sexual risk behaviors and sexually transmitted infections is critical for evaluating the effectiveness of human immunodeficiency virus and other prevention programs, but population-based data on adolescents in Thailand are limited. We report findings from 2 cross-sectional surveys conducted in 1999 and 2002 among 15-to 21-year-old vocational students. In 1999 and 2002, 1725 and 966 students, respectively, were interviewed using computer-assisted self-interview methods. Urine samples were collected and tested for Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae by polymerase chain reaction. From 1999 to 2002 C. trachomatis prevalence increased from 3.2% to 7.5% (P partners among both men (3.4-4.7, P = 0.01) and women (2.5-3.3, P partners among men (1.1-2.1, P use decreased significantly among women with casual partners (43%-19%, P = 0.03) but not among men (25%-31%, P = 0.31). Our study identified important increases in the prevalence of chlamydial infection and in sexual risk behaviors among Thai adolescents over a 3-year period. These findings are consistent with other studies suggesting profound social changes are changing norms of adolescent sexual behavior in Thailand, and highlight the need for adolescent sexual health services and prevention programming.

  1. Increased risk of gastric adenocarcinoma after treatment of primary gastric diffuse large B-cell lymphoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inaba, Koji; Morota, Madoka; Mayahara, Hiroshi; Ito, Yoshinori; Sumi, Minako; Uno, Takashi; Itami, Jun; Kushima, Ryoji; Murakami, Naoya; Kuroda, Yuuki; Harada, Ken; Kitaguchi, Mayuka; Yoshio, Kotaro; Sekii, Shuhei; Takahashi, Kana

    2013-01-01

    There have been sporadic reports about synchronous as well as metachronous gastric adenocarcinoma and primary gastric lymphoma. Many reports have dealt with metachronous gastric adenocarcinoma in mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue lymphoma of stomach. But to our knowledge, there have been no reports that document the increased incidence of metachronous gastric adenocarcinoma in patients with gastric diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. This retrospective study was conducted to estimate the incidence of metachronous gastric adenocarcinoma after primary gastric lymphoma treatment, especially in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. The retrospective cohort study of 139 primary gastric lymphoma patients treated with radiotherapy at our hospital. Mean observation period was 61.5 months (range: 3.7-124.6 months). Patients profile, characteristics of primary gastric lymphoma and metachronous gastric adenocarcinoma were retrieved from medical records. The risk of metachronous gastric adenocarcinoma was compared with the risk of gastric adenocarcinoma in Japanese population. There were 10 (7.2%) metachronous gastric adenocarcinoma patients after treatment of primary gastric lymphomas. It was quite high risk compared with the risk of gastric carcinoma in Japanese population of 54.7/100,000. Seven patients of 10 were diffuse large B-cell lymphoma and other 3 patients were mixed type of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma and mucosa associated lymphoid tissue lymphoma. Four patients of 10 metachronous gastric adenocarcinomas were signet-ring cell carcinoma and two patients died of gastric adenocarcinoma. Metachronous gastric adenocarcinoma may have a more malignant potential than sporadic gastric adenocarcinoma. Old age, Helicobacter pylori infection and gastric mucosal change of chronic gastritis and intestinal metaplasia were possible risk factors for metachronous gastric adenocarcinoma. There was an increased risk of gastric adenocarcinoma after treatment of primary gastric lymphoma

  2. Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Iain

    2018-06-13

    Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  3. Uric acid stones increase the risk of chronic kidney disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ching-Chia; Chien, Tsu-Ming; Wu, Wen-Jeng; Huang, Chun-Nung; Chou, Yii-Her

    2018-02-28

    The aim of this study was to compare the clinical characteristics of uric acid stones and their potential risk for chronic kidney disease (CKD). A total of 401 patients (196 with uric acid stone and 205 without) were enrolled from our database of patients with urolithiasis. We analyzed the clinical demographic features, stone location, urine chemistries, and renal function. There was a significant difference (p uric acid group. Patients with uric acid stones had much lower pH of urine (p uric acid level (p = 0.002). Notably, those with uric acid stones had worse eGFR than those with non-uric acid stones. Multivariate analysis confirmed that age over 60 years (ORs = 9.19; 95% CI 3.5-24.3), female sex (ORs = 4.01; 95% CI 1.8-9.0), hyperuricemia (ORs = 8.47; 95% CI 1.6-43.5), and uric acid stone (OR = 2.86; 95% CI 1.2-6.7) were the independent predictors of poor prognoses in CKD. Therefore, an association exists between uric acid stones and higher prevalence of CKD. Patients with uric acid stones may need close monitoring of renal function during follow-up.

  4. Increased Risk of Peptic Ulcers Following a Cholecystectomy for Gallstones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Ming-Chieh; Huang, Chung-Chien; Kao, Li-Ting; Lin, Herng-Ching; Lee, Cha-Ze

    2016-07-29

    This retrospective cohort study examined the relationship between a cholecystectomy and the subsequent risk of peptic ulcers using a population-based database. Data for this study were retrieved from the Taiwan Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2005. This study included 5209 patients who had undergone a cholecystectomy for gallstones and 15,627 sex- and age-matched comparison patients. We individually tracked each patient for a 5-year period to identify those who subsequently received a diagnosis of peptic ulcers. We found that of the 20,836 sampled patients, 2033 patients (9.76%) received a diagnosis of peptic ulcers during the 5-year follow-up period: 674 from the study group (12.94% of the patients who underwent a cholecystectomy) and 1359 from the comparison group (8.70% of the comparison patients). The stratified Cox proportional hazard regressions showed that the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for peptic ulcers during the 5-year follow-up period was 1.48 (95% CI = 1.34~1.64) for patients who underwent a cholecystectomy than comparison patients. Furthermore, the adjusted HRs of gastric ulcers and duodenal ulcers during the 5-year follow-up period were 1.70 and 1.71, respectively, for patients who underwent a cholecystectomy compared to comparison patients. This study demonstrated a relationship between a cholecystectomy and a subsequent diagnosis of peptic ulcers.

  5. Endometriosis increases the risk of obstetrical and neonatal complications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berlac, Janne Foss; Hartwell, Dorthe; Skovlund, Charlotte Wessel

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: The objective of this study was to assess obstetrical complications and neonatal outcomes in women with endometriosis as compared with women without endometriosis. Material and methods: National cohort including all delivering women and their newborns in Denmark 1997–2014. Data were...... extracted from the Danish Health Register and the Medical Birth Register. Logistic regression analysis provided odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Sub-analyses were made for primiparous women with a singleton pregnancy and for women with endometriosis who underwent gynecological surgery...... before pregnancy. Results: In 19 331 deliveries, women with endometriosis had a higher risk of severe preeclampsia (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.5–2.0), hemorrhage in pregnancy (OR 2.3, 95% CI 2.0–2.5), placental abruption (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.7–2.3), placenta previa (OR 3.9, 95% CI 3.5–4.3), premature rupture...

  6. Climate change affecting oil palm agronomy, and oil palm cultivation increasing climate change, require amelioration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paterson, R Russell M; Lima, Nelson

    2018-01-01

    Palm oil is used in various valued commodities and is a large global industry worth over US$ 50 billion annually. Oil palms (OP) are grown commercially in Indonesia and Malaysia and other countries within Latin America and Africa. The large-scale land-use change has high ecological, economic, and social impacts. Tropical countries in particular are affected negatively by climate change (CC) which also has a detrimental impact on OP agronomy, whereas the cultivation of OP increases CC. Amelioration of both is required. The reduced ability to grow OP will reduce CC, which may allow more cultivation tending to increase CC, in a decreasing cycle. OP could be increasingly grown in more suitable regions occurring under CC. Enhancing the soil fauna may compensate for the effect of CC on OP agriculture to some extent. The effect of OP cultivation on CC may be reduced by employing reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation plans, for example, by avoiding illegal fire land clearing. Other ameliorating methods are reported herein. More research is required involving good management practices that can offset the increases in CC by OP plantations. Overall, OP-growing countries should support the Paris convention on reducing CC as the most feasible scheme for reducing CC.

  7. Designing Graphs that Promote Both Risk Understanding and Behavior Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okan, Yasmina; Stone, Eric R; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi

    2017-10-03

    Graphs show promise for improving communications about different types of risks, including health risks, financial risks, and climate risks. However, graph designs that are effective at meeting one important risk communication goal (promoting risk-avoidant behaviors) can at the same time compromise another key goal (improving risk understanding). We developed and tested simple bar graphs aimed at accomplishing these two goals simultaneously. We manipulated two design features in graphs, namely, whether graphs depicted the number of people affected by a risk and those at risk of harm ("foreground+background") versus only those affected ("foreground-only"), and the presence versus absence of simple numerical labels above bars. Foreground-only displays were associated with larger risk perceptions and risk-avoidant behavior (i.e., willingness to take a drug for heart attack prevention) than foreground+background displays, regardless of the presence of labels. Foreground-only graphs also hindered risk understanding when labels were not present. However, the presence of labels significantly improved understanding, eliminating the detrimental effect of foreground-only displays. Labels also led to more positive user evaluations of the graphs, but did not affect risk-avoidant behavior. Using process modeling we identified mediators (risk perceptions, understanding, user evaluations) that explained the effect of display type on risk-avoidant behavior. Our findings contribute new evidence to the graph design literature: unlike what was previously feared, we demonstrate that it is possible to design foreground-only graphs that promote intentions for behavior change without a detrimental effect on risk understanding. Implications for the design of graphical risk communications and decision support are discussed. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Restaurant Cooking Trends and Increased Risk for Campylobacter Infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Anna K; Rigby, Dan; Burton, Michael; Millman, Caroline; Williams, Nicola J; Jones, Trevor R; Wigley, Paul; O'Brien, Sarah J; Cross, Paul

    2016-07-01

    In the United Kingdom, outbreaks of Campylobacter infection are increasingly attributed to undercooked chicken livers, yet many recipes, including those of top chefs, advocate short cooking times and serving livers pink. During 2015, we studied preferences of chefs and the public in the United Kingdom and investigated the link between liver rareness and survival of Campylobacter. We used photographs to assess chefs' ability to identify chicken livers meeting safe cooking guidelines. To investigate the microbiological safety of livers chefs preferred to serve, we modeled Campylobacter survival in infected chicken livers cooked to various temperatures. Most chefs correctly identified safely cooked livers but overestimated the public's preference for rareness and thus preferred to serve them more rare. We estimated that 19%-52% of livers served commercially in the United Kingdom fail to reach 70°C and that predicted Campylobacter survival rates are 48%-98%. These findings indicate that cooking trends are linked to increasing Campylobacter infections.

  9. Climate change and coastal aquaculture farmers’ risk perceptions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahsan, Dewan; Brandt, Urs Steiner

    2015-01-01

    and cooperation. We do this by a comparative study with Bangladesh shrimp farmers and Danish mussel farmers. Since these people live on the edge of subsistence, already small changes in the climate will affect them significantly. Farmers in both developed and developing economies are concerned about global...... climate change but there are significant differences in farmers’ perceptions of the causes of global climate change in developed and developing countries.......This paper addresses the issue of risk perception in relation to climate change threats, comparison of risk perceptions in two different regions, and derives general results of what affect peoples’ level of risk perceptions. Revelation of individual risk perception is essential for local acceptance...

  10. Risks of adverse impacts from climate change in Southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Vincent, K

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available In this chapter, the terms hazard exposure, sensitivity (or biophysical vulnerability), adaptive capacity (or its opposite - social vulnerability) and risk are introduced (see Box 4.1 for key definitions). Whether or not climate change is likely...

  11. Ozone depletion, related UVB changes and increased skin cancer incidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kane, R. P.

    1998-03-01

    Stratospheric ozone at middle latitudes shows a seasonal variation of about +/-20%, a quasi-biennial oscillation of 1-10% range and a long-term variation in which the level was almost steady up to about 1979 and declined thereafter to the present day by about 10%. These variations are expected to be reflected in solar UVB observed at the ground, but in an opposite direction. Thus UVB should have had a long-term increase of about 10-20%, which should cause an increase in skin cancer incidence of about 20-40%. Skin cancer incidence has increased all over the world, e.g. about 90% in USA during 1974-1990. It is popularly believed that this increase in skin cancer incidence is related to the recent ozone depletion. This seems to be incorrect, for two reasons. Firstly, the observed skin cancer increase is too large (90%) compared with the expected value (40%) from ozone depletion. Secondly, cancer does not develop immediately after exposure to solar UVB. The sunburns may occur within hours; but cancer development and detection may take years, even decades. Hence the observed skin cancer increase since 1974 (no data available for earlier periods) must have occurred due to exposure to solar UVB in the 1950s and 1960s, when there was no ozone depletion. Thus, the skin cancer increase must be attributed to harmful solar UVB levels existing even in the 1960s, accentuated later not by ozone depletion (which started only much later, by 1979) but by other causes, such as a longer human life span, better screening, increasing tendencies of sunbathing at beaches, etc., in affluent societies. On the other hand, the recent ozone depletion and the associated UVB increases will certainly take their toll; only that the effects will not be noticed now but years or decades from now. The concern for the future expressed in the Montreal Protocol for reducing ozone depletion by controlling CFC production is certainly justified, especially because increased UVB is harmful to animal and

  12. Using Dynamic Walking Models to Identify Factors that Contribute to Increased Risk of Falling in Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roos, Paulien E.; Dingwell, Jonathan B.

    2013-01-01

    Falls are common in older adults. The most common cause of falls is tripping while walking. Simulation studies demonstrated that older adults may be restricted by lower limb strength and movement speed to regain balance after a trip. This review examines how modeling approaches can be used to determine how different measures predict actual fall risk and what some of the causal mechanisms of fall risk are. Although increased gait variability predicts increased fall risk experimentally, it is not clear which variability measures could best be used, or what magnitude of change corresponded with increased fall risk. With a simulation study we showed that the increase in fall risk with a certain increase in gait variability was greatly influenced by the initial level of variability. Gait variability can therefore not easily be used to predict fall risk. We therefore explored other measures that may be related to fall risk and investigated the relationship between stability measures such as Floquet multipliers and local divergence exponents and actual fall risk in a dynamic walking model. We demonstrated that short-term local divergence exponents were a good early predictor for fall risk. Neuronal noise increases with age. It has however not been fully understood if increased neuronal noise would cause an increased fall risk. With our dynamic walking model we showed that increased neuronal noise caused increased fall risk. Although people who are at increased risk of falling reduce their walking speed it had been questioned whether this slower speed would actually cause a reduced fall risk. With our model we demonstrated that a reduced walking speed caused a reduction in fall risk. This may be due to the decreased kinematic variability as a result of the reduced signal-dependent noise of the smaller muscle forces that are required for slower. These insights may be used in the development of fall prevention programs in order to better identify those at increased risk of

  13. Using dynamic walking models to identify factors that contribute to increased risk of falling in older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roos, Paulien E; Dingwell, Jonathan B

    2013-10-01

    Falls are common in older adults. The most common cause of falls is tripping while walking. Simulation studies demonstrated that older adults may be restricted by lower limb strength and movement speed to regain balance after a trip. This review examines how modeling approaches can be used to determine how different measures predict actual fall risk and what some of the causal mechanisms of fall risk are. Although increased gait variability predicts increased fall risk experimentally, it is not clear which variability measures could best be used, or what magnitude of change corresponded with increased fall risk. With a simulation study we showed that the increase in fall risk with a certain increase in gait variability was greatly influenced by the initial level of variability. Gait variability can therefore not easily be used to predict fall risk. We therefore explored other measures that may be related to fall risk and investigated the relationship between stability measures such as Floquet multipliers and local divergence exponents and actual fall risk in a dynamic walking model. We demonstrated that short-term local divergence exponents were a good early predictor for fall risk. Neuronal noise increases with age. It has however not been fully understood if increased neuronal noise would cause an increased fall risk. With our dynamic walking model we showed that increased neuronal noise caused increased fall risk. Although people who are at increased risk of falling reduce their walking speed it had been questioned whether this slower speed would actually cause a reduced fall risk. With our model we demonstrated that a reduced walking speed caused a reduction in fall risk. This may be due to the decreased kinematic variability as a result of the reduced signal-dependent noise of the smaller muscle forces that are required for slower. These insights may be used in the development of fall prevention programs in order to better identify those at increased risk of

  14. Are ICSI adolescents at risk for increased adiposity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belva, Florence; Painter, Rebecca; Bonduelle, Maryse; Roelants, Mathieu; Devroey, Paul; De Schepper, Jean

    2012-01-01

    Puberty is a critical period for the development of cardio-metabolic disturbances, including a more central body fat distribution. It is still unclear if IVF and more specifically ICSI, can permanently and detrimentally affect body fat accumulation in the human offspring. Therefore, adiposity and body fat distribution in 14-year-old adolescents born after ICSI were investigated. Body composition data, including anthropometry (weight, height and BMI), skinfold thicknesses (peripheral: triceps and biceps skinfolds; central: supra-iliacal and subscapular skinfolds; total: sum of the four skinfolds) and circumferences (waist, mid-upper arm) were compared between 217 ICSI singletons (116 boys, 101 girls) and 223 singletons (115 boys, 108 girls) born after spontaneous conception (SC). ICSI teenagers were part of a previously published ICSI cohort followed since birth; SC controls were recruited from schools in the surroundings. Among all boys, no differences in body composition measurements were found between the ICSI and SC group, taking into account confounding variables. In boys with more advanced pubertal stages, a significantly higher sum of peripheral skinfolds was found in the ICSI group compared with the SC group (difference 3.5 mm, 95% confidence interval 0.3-6.6). In girls, peripheral adiposity assessed by skinfolds and mid-upper arm circumference, and central adiposity assessed by skinfolds and waist circumference as well as total adiposity assessed by BMI, the sum of four skinfold thicknesses and skinfold-derived body fat percentage were significantly higher in the ICSI group compared with the SC group, taking into account confounding variables (all Pfat patterns in adolescents born after fertility treatment is mandatory in order to assess their risk for developing obesity and its related adverse health effects in adulthood.

  15. Change in abdominal obesity and risk of coronary calcification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sabour, S.; Grobbee, D.E.; Prokop, M.; Schouw, Y.T. van der; Bots, M.L.

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: A prospective follow-up study was conducted to examine the relationship between 9 year change in abdominal obesity and risk of coronary artery calcification (CAC). METHODS: Data on coronary risk factors for 573 postmenopausal women were collected at baseline (1993-1997) and

  16. Lifestyle Changes and the Risk of Colorectal Cancer among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Lifestyle Changes and the Risk of Colorectal Cancer among Immigrants in the United Kingdom: Reflections and Lessons for Sub-Saharan Africa. ... on this that this paper through a review of literature, discusses the risk of CRC among migrants in the UK, its' impact on the health systems and lessons for sub-Saharan Africa.

  17. Communicating Climate Change Risks for Adaptation in Coastal ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    1 janv. 2012 ... Researchers will assess how different stakeholders understand climate and water-related risk; facilitate discussion between different stakeholder groups on potential response mechanisms; devise and test communication tools for disseminating information on changing climate risk and response; and ...

  18. RISK, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: AN INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH

    OpenAIRE

    Iwama,Allan Yu; Batistella,Mateus; Ferreira,Lúcia da Costa; Alves,Diogenes Salas; Ferreira,Leila da Costa

    2016-01-01

    Abstract This study addresses risk, vulnerability, and their implications for the adaptation of communities to the problems they face in the everyday life and to those derived from climate change. Based on the literature about risk, vulnerability and adaptation to disasters and on a case study conducted in the Northern coast of São Paulo - Brazil, we summarize the converging themes in the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, which are divided in three components: (i) in...

  19. Rapid Environmental Change Drives Increased Land Use by an Arctic Marine Predator.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todd C Atwood

    Full Text Available In the Arctic Ocean's southern Beaufort Sea (SB, the length of the sea ice melt season (i.e., period between the onset of sea ice break-up in summer and freeze-up in fall has increased substantially since the late 1990s. Historically, polar bears (Ursus maritimus of the SB have mostly remained on the sea ice year-round (except for those that came ashore to den, but recent changes in the extent and phenology of sea ice habitat have coincided with evidence that use of terrestrial habitat is increasing. We characterized the spatial behavior of polar bears spending summer and fall on land along Alaska's north coast to better understand the nexus between rapid environmental change and increased use of terrestrial habitat. We found that the percentage of radiocollared adult females from the SB subpopulation coming ashore has tripled over 15 years. Moreover, we detected trends of earlier arrival on shore, increased length of stay, and later departure back to sea ice, all of which were related to declines in the availability of sea ice habitat over the continental shelf and changes to sea ice phenology. Since the late 1990s, the mean duration of the open-water season in the SB increased by 36 days, and the mean length of stay on shore increased by 31 days. While on shore, the distribution of polar bears was influenced by the availability of scavenge subsidies in the form of subsistence-harvested bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus remains aggregated at sites along the coast. The declining spatio-temporal availability of sea ice habitat and increased availability of human-provisioned resources are likely to result in increased use of land. Increased residency on land is cause for concern given that, while there, bears may be exposed to a greater array of risk factors including those associated with increased human activities.

  20. Rapid Environmental Change Drives Increased Land Use by an Arctic Marine Predator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atwood, Todd C; Peacock, Elizabeth; McKinney, Melissa A; Lillie, Kate; Wilson, Ryan; Douglas, David C; Miller, Susanne; Terletzky, Pat

    2016-01-01

    In the Arctic Ocean's southern Beaufort Sea (SB), the length of the sea ice melt season (i.e., period between the onset of sea ice break-up in summer and freeze-up in fall) has increased substantially since the late 1990s. Historically, polar bears (Ursus maritimus) of the SB have mostly remained on the sea ice year-round (except for those that came ashore to den), but recent changes in the extent and phenology of sea ice habitat have coincided with evidence that use of terrestrial habitat is increasing. We characterized the spatial behavior of polar bears spending summer and fall on land along Alaska's north coast to better understand the nexus between rapid environmental change and increased use of terrestrial habitat. We found that the percentage of radiocollared adult females from the SB subpopulation coming ashore has tripled over 15 years. Moreover, we detected trends of earlier arrival on shore, increased length of stay, and later departure back to sea ice, all of which were related to declines in the availability of sea ice habitat over the continental shelf and changes to sea ice phenology. Since the late 1990s, the mean duration of the open-water season in the SB increased by 36 days, and the mean length of stay on shore increased by 31 days. While on shore, the distribution of polar bears was influenced by the availability of scavenge subsidies in the form of subsistence-harvested bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) remains aggregated at sites along the coast. The declining spatio-temporal availability of sea ice habitat and increased availability of human-provisioned resources are likely to result in increased use of land. Increased residency on land is cause for concern given that, while there, bears may be exposed to a greater array of risk factors including those associated with increased human activities.

  1. Stochastic arrangement increasing risks in financial engineering andactuarial science – a review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Li

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available We review recent research results on stochastic arrangement increasing risks in financialand actuarial risk management, including allocation of deductibles and coverage limits concerned withmultiple dependent risks in an insurance policy, the independence model and the threshold models fora portfolio of defaults risks with dependence, and the optimal capital allocation for a financial institutewith multiple line of business.

  2. Stress during adolescence increases novelty seeking and risk taking behavior in male and female rats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria eToledo

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Adolescence is a period of major physical, hormonal and psychological change. It is also characterized by a significant increase in the incidence of psychopathologies and this increase is gender-specific. Likewise, stress during adolescence is associated with the development of psychiatric disorders later in life. Previously, using a rat model of psychogenic stress (exposure to predator odor followed by placement on an elevated platform during the pre-pubertal period (postnatal days 28-30, we reported sex-specific effects on auditory and contextual fear conditioning. Here, we study the short-term impact of psychogenic stress before and during puberty (postnatal days 28-42 on behavior (novelty seeking, risk taking, anxiety and depression and hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenocortical (HPA axis activation during late adolescence (postnatal days 45-51. Peri-pubertal stress decreased anxiety-like behavior and increased risk taking and novelty seeking behaviors during late adolescence (measured with the elevated plus maze, open field and exposure to novel object tests and intake of chocopop pellets before or immediate after stress. Finally neither depressive-like behavior (measured at the forced swim test nor HPA response to stress (blood corticosterone and glucose were affected by peri-pubertal stress. Nevertheless, when controlling for the basal anxiety of the mothers, animals exposed to peri-pubertal stress showed a significant decrease in corticosterone levels immediate after an acute stressor. The results from this study suggest that exposure to mild stressors during the peri-pubertal period induces a broad spectrum of behavioral changes in late adolescence, which may exacerbate the independence-building behaviors naturally happening during this transitional period (increase in curiosity, sensation-seeking and risk taking behaviors.

  3. Increased polysomy of chromosome 7 in bronchial epithelium from patients at high risk for lung cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belinsky, S.A.; Neft, R.E.; Lechner, J.F.

    1995-01-01

    Current models of carcinogenesis suggest that tissues progress through multiple genetic and epigenetic changes which ultimately lead to development of invasive cancer. Epidemiologic studies of Peto, R.R. and J.A. Doll indicate that the accumulation of these genetic changes over time, rather than any single unique genetic change, is probably responsible for development of the malignant phenotype. The bronchial epithelium of cigarette smokers is diffusely exposed to a broad spectrum of carcinogens, toxicants, and tumor promoters contained in tobacco smoke. This exposure increases the risk of developing multiple, independent premalignant foci throughout the lower respiratory tract that may contain independent gene aberrations. This open-quotes field cancerizationclose quotes theory is supported by studies that have demonstrated progressive histologic changes distributed throughout the lower respiratory tract of smokers. A series of autopsy studies demonstrated that cigarette smokers exhibit premalignant histologic changes ranging from hyperplasia and metaplasia to severe dysplasia and carcinoma in situ diffusely throughout the bronchial mucosa. The proximal bronchi appear to exhibit the greatest number of changes, particularly at bifurcations. The results described are the first to quantitate the frequency for a chromosome aberration in open-quotes normalclose quotes bronchial epithelial cells

  4. Increased polysomy of chromosome 7 in bronchial epithelium from patients at high risk for lung cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belinsky, S.A.; Neft, R.E.; Lechner, J.F. [and others

    1995-12-01

    Current models of carcinogenesis suggest that tissues progress through multiple genetic and epigenetic changes which ultimately lead to development of invasive cancer. Epidemiologic studies of Peto, R.R. and J.A. Doll indicate that the accumulation of these genetic changes over time, rather than any single unique genetic change, is probably responsible for development of the malignant phenotype. The bronchial epithelium of cigarette smokers is diffusely exposed to a broad spectrum of carcinogens, toxicants, and tumor promoters contained in tobacco smoke. This exposure increases the risk of developing multiple, independent premalignant foci throughout the lower respiratory tract that may contain independent gene aberrations. This {open_quotes}field cancerization{close_quotes} theory is supported by studies that have demonstrated progressive histologic changes distributed throughout the lower respiratory tract of smokers. A series of autopsy studies demonstrated that cigarette smokers exhibit premalignant histologic changes ranging from hyperplasia and metaplasia to severe dysplasia and carcinoma in situ diffusely throughout the bronchial mucosa. The proximal bronchi appear to exhibit the greatest number of changes, particularly at bifurcations. The results described are the first to quantitate the frequency for a chromosome aberration in {open_quotes}normal{close_quotes} bronchial epithelial cells.

  5. Increased intake of vegetables, but not fruit, reduces risk for hepatocellular carcinoma: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yang; Zhang, Dan; Feng, Na; Chen, Guochong; Liu, Jianjiang; Chen, Guiping; Zhu, Yuan

    2014-11-01

    The anti-cancer effects of vegetables and fruit have been investigated extensively, but the association between vegetable and fruit consumption and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has not been quantified. We performed a meta-analysis of observational studies to clarify the association. We identified eligible studies, published from 1956 through May 31, 2014, by searching PubMed, Web of Science, and EMBASE. Random-effects models were used to calculate summary relative risks (RRs) and dose-response analyses were conducted to quantify associations. Heterogeneity among studies was evaluated using Cochran's Q and I(2) statistics. A total of 19 studies involving 1,290,045 participants and 3912 cases of HCC were included in the meta-analysis. The summary RR for HCC was 0.72 for individuals with high intake vs low intake of vegetables (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.63-0.83) and 0.92 with a daily increase in vegetable intake (100 g/d) (95% CI: 0.88-0.95). Subgroup analyses showed that this inverse association did not change regardless of history of hepatitis, alcohol drinking, smoking, or energy intake. The summary RR for HCC among individuals with high vs low intake of fruit was 0.93 (95% CI: 0.80-1.09), and 0.99 with a daily increase in fruit intake (100 g/d) (95% CI: 0.94-1.05). Based on a meta-analysis, increased intake of vegetables, but not fruit, is associated with lower risk for HCC. The risk of HCC decreases by 8% for every 100 g/d increase in vegetable intake. The findings should be confirmed by future studies with validated questionnaires and strict control of confounders. Copyright © 2014 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Increasing pesticide-resistant ectoparasitic infections may increase pesticide poisoning risks in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz, James H

    2008-01-01

    Head louse and scabies mite infestations are common among pre-school and school-age children, and topical pesticides are frequently prescribed to treat such conditions. Ectoparasite resistance to the safest and most commonly prescribed pyrethrin/pyrethroid pesticides for ectoparasitic infections has, however, been increasing since the 1980s. The increasing resistance of these arthropods to the safest pesticides may lead to greater use of more toxic, alternative pesticides to control infestations and to prevent institutional outbreaks. MEDLINE and Cochrane searches, 1966-2008, were conducted to assess the impact of increasing pesticide resistance on prescribing practices for ectoparasitic infections and to describe the evolving global epidemiology of pediatric poisonings by more toxic pediculicides and miticides, including carbamates, organochlorines, and organophosphates. Pharmacists, physicians, and poison control personnel should be fully informed about increasing pesticide resistance among the most commonly encountered ectoparasites of children and the institutionalized and be prepared to prevent and to treat accidental home and institutional pesticide poisonings with more toxic pesticides.

  7. Climate Change, Disaster Risk, and the Urban Poor : Cities Building Resilience for a Changing World

    OpenAIRE

    Baker, Judy L.

    2012-01-01

    Poor people living in slums are at particularly high risk from the impacts of climate change and natural hazards. They live on the most vulnerable land within cities, typically areas deemed undesirable by others and thus affordable. This study analyzes the key challenges facing the urban poor, given the risks associated with climate change and disasters, particularly with regard to the del...

  8. The Epidemiology of Pheochromocytoma: Increasing incidence and changing clinical presentation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ebbehoj, A; Søndergaard, Esben; Trolle, Christian

    2017-01-01

    (population 1.75 million).Incidence rates were calculated using Poisson regression and time trends were analysed with year as a continuous explanatory variable. As incidence increased significantly in 2007–2015, we compared the clinical characteristics of patients diagnosed in this time interval with patients...

  9. Games for increasing physical activity: Mechanisms for change

    Science.gov (United States)

    A small conference was held in Houston, TX, in May 2014, to address how to enhance exergames to increase physical activity. Several leading researchers were asked to address specific topics. Attendees came from across the globe. This Games for Health Journal Special Issue is devoted to sharing the a...

  10. The Gradual Increase of Responsibility Model: Coaching for Teacher Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collet, Vicki S.

    2012-01-01

    This study examines the gradual increase of responsibility (GIR) model for teacher coaching (Collet, 2008), an adaptation of Pearson and Gallagher's (1983) Gradual Release of Responsibility model. In GIR, instructional coaches model, make recommendations, ask probing questions, affirm teachers' appropriate decisions, and praise in order to provide…

  11. A quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Zhiqiang; Pan, Zhihua; An, Pingli; Zhang, Jingting; Zhang, Jun; Pan, Yuying; Huang, Lei; Zhao, Hui; Han, Guolin; Wu, Dong; Wang, Jialin; Fan, Dongliang; Gao, Lin; Pan, Xuebiao

    2018-01-01

    Climate change has greatly affected agriculture. Agriculture is facing increasing risks as its sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change. Scientific assessment of climate change-induced agricultural risks could help to actively deal with climate change and ensure food security. However, quantitative assessment of risk is a difficult issue. Here, based on the IPCC assessment reports, a quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change is proposed. Risk is described as the product of the degree of loss and its probability of occurrence. The degree of loss can be expressed by the yield change amplitude. The probability of occurrence can be calculated by the new concept of climate change effect-accumulated frequency (CCEAF). Specific steps of this assessment method are suggested. This method is determined feasible and practical by using the spring wheat in Wuchuan County of Inner Mongolia as a test example. The results show that the fluctuation of spring wheat yield increased with the warming and drying climatic trend in Wuchuan County. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 3.5 and 64.6%, respectively, for the temperature maximum increase 88.3%, and its risk was 2.2%. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 14.1 and 56.1%, respectively, for the precipitation maximum decrease 35.2%, and its risk was 7.9%. For the comprehensive impacts of temperature and precipitation, the maximum yield decrease and its probability were 17.6 and 53.4%, respectively, and its risk increased to 9.4%. If we do not adopt appropriate adaptation strategies, the degree of loss from the negative impacts of multiclimatic factors and its probability of occurrence will both increase accordingly, and the risk will also grow obviously.

  12. Risks of increased UV-B radiation: higher plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rau, W.; Hofmann, H.

    1994-01-01

    The question pursued within the Bavarian climate research programme (BayFORKLIM) in the present context was as follows: Does the fact that UV-B radiation increases with growing site elevation mean that the low sensitivity of predominantly alpine plants compared with that of lowland plants is attributable to their different genetic constitution, possibly as a result of selective pressure and/or de alpine species have a greater capacity to develop protective mechanisms? Pairs and triplets of species belonging to the same genus but occuring at different site elevations were grown from seeds in a greenhouse that is, without UV-B. In order to determine their capacity to adapt to UV-B radiation, some of the plants were additionally exposed to UV-B for 5-6 weeks prior to sensitivity testing. Sensitivity was tested by exposing the plants to additional UV-B of different intensities in test chambers. Visible damage, ranging from light bronzing or yellowing to withering, served as an assessment criterion. Levels of UV-B absorbing substances (phenylpropane species, usually flavonoids) were also measured in these plants. The results obtained permit the following conclusions: The greater UV-B resistance of alpine species compared with that of lowland species of the same genus is not attributable to their genetic constitution but rather to their superior adaptability. Superior resistance is in part due to a greater accumulation of UV-B absorbing substances. Distinct differences in sensitivity between different genera could lead to population shifts within ecosystems as a result of increased UV-B radiation. (orig./KW) [de

  13. The Racing-Game Effect : Why Do Video Racing Games Increase Risk-Taking Inclinations?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fischer, Peter; Greitemeyer, Tobias; Morton, Thomas; Kastenmueller, Andreas; Postmes, Tom; Frey, Dieter; Kubitzki, Joerg; Odenwaelder, Joerg; Kastenmüller, A.; Odenwälder, J.

    2009-01-01

    The present studies investigated why video racing games increase players' risk-taking inclinations. Four studies reveal that playing video racing games increases risk taking in a subsequent simulated road traffic situation, as well as risk-promoting cognitions and emotions, blood pressure, sensation

  14. Cannabis use and childhood trauma interact additively to increase the risk of psychotic symptoms in adolescence.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Harley, M

    2010-10-01

    Adolescent cannabis use has been shown in many studies to increase the risk of later psychosis. Childhood trauma is associated with both substance misuse and risk for psychosis. In this study our aim was to investigate whether there is a significant interaction between cannabis use and childhood trauma in increasing the risk for experiencing psychotic symptoms during adolescence.

  15. Civil protection and climate change impacts in the Netherlands: Local risk perceptions and actions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Berg, Maya Marieke; Coenen, Franciscus H.J.M.

    2010-01-01

    Being a delta, one third of the Dutch territory consists of flood-prone areas. This article discusses how the local civil protection system in the Netherlands responds to increasing climate change-induced flooding risks in terms of risk perception and action. Case studies on three Safety Regions are

  16. Baroreflex failure increases the risk of pulmonary edema in conscious rats with normal left ventricular function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakamoto, Kazuo; Hosokawa, Kazuya; Saku, Keita; Sakamoto, Takafumi; Tobushi, Tomoyuki; Oga, Yasuhiro; Kishi, Takuya; Ide, Tomomi; Sunagawa, Kenji

    2016-01-15

    In heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), the complex pathogenesis hinders development of effective therapies. Since HFpEF and arteriosclerosis share common risk factors, it is conceivable that stiffened arterial wall in HFpEF impairs baroreflex function. Previous investigations have indicated that the baroreflex regulates intravascular stressed volume and arterial resistance in addition to cardiac contractility and heart rate. We hypothesized that baroreflex dysfunction impairs regulation of left atrial pressure (LAP) and increases the risk of pulmonary edema in freely moving rats. In 15-wk Sprague-Dawley male rats, we conducted sinoaortic denervation (SAD, n = 6) or sham surgery (Sham, n = 9), and telemetrically monitored ambulatory arterial pressure (AP) and LAP. We compared the mean and SD (lability) of AP and LAP between SAD and Sham under normal-salt diet (NS) or high-salt diet (HS). SAD did not increase mean AP but significantly increased AP lability under both NS (P = 0.001) and HS (P = 0.001). SAD did not change mean LAP but significantly increased LAP lability under both NS (SAD: 2.57 ± 0.43 vs. Sham: 1.73 ± 0.30 mmHg, P = 0.01) and HS (4.13 ± 1.18 vs. 2.45 ± 0.33 mmHg, P = 0.02). SAD markedly increased the frequency of high LAP, and SAD with HS prolonged the duration of LAP > 18 mmHg by nearly 20-fold compared with Sham (SAD + HS: 2,831 ± 2,366 vs. Sham + HS: 148 ± 248 s, P = 0.01). We conclude that baroreflex failure impairs volume tolerance and together with salt loading increases the risk of pulmonary edema even in the absence of left ventricular dysfunction. Baroreflex failure may contribute in part to the pathogenesis of HFpEF. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

  17. Expanding scale, increasing risk: population as an environmental issue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelman, R

    1994-11-01

    Rather than blaming our environmental problems on population growth alone or on dramatic increases in per capita consumption and rather than making dire predictions about the collapse of resources such as food supplies, it should be recognized that population growth puts pressure on the carrying capacity of the planet simply by increasing human activity. The environmental indicators which cause concern about the future include the fact that productivity has been sapped in almost 11% of the earth's surface, that 15.4 million hectares of tropical rain forest disappeared each year during the 1980s, that 1.7 billion people lack access to adequate drinking water, that pollution has depleted the ozone shield and threatens global warming, and that each year 27,000 species become extinct. The deforestation of Easter Island, which occurred as population grew between the 5th or 6th century and 1500 A.D., is an example of an ecosystem destroyed by population growth. When events like this happened in the past, people either colonized other places or survived in smaller numbers. However, today the world is full, and successful migration depends upon the good will of the receiving community (which is usually in short supply). As humanity concentrates in urban areas, emerging diseases will continue to take their toll. Researchers are attempting to develop models and identify mechanisms to contribute to our understanding of the many indirect ways that population affects the environment. Complicating factors include the fact that wealthier nations have a disproportionate (to their population numbers) effect on the environment and the fact that some ecosystems or resource bases are more vulnerable than others. In the meantime, population momentum will assure that population will continue to grow at unprecedented rates before it stabilizes when fertility declines outpace mortality declines. This stabilization is necessary to halt and ultimately reverse environmental degradation. This

  18. Increased dopamine tone during meditation-induced change of consciousness

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjaer, Troels W; Bertelsen, Camilla; Piccini, Paola

    2002-01-01

    This is the first in vivo demonstration of an association between endogenous neurotransmitter release and conscious experience. Using 11C-raclopride PET we demonstrated increased endogenous dopamine release in the ventral striatum during Yoga Nidra meditation. Yoga Nidra is characterized by a dep......This is the first in vivo demonstration of an association between endogenous neurotransmitter release and conscious experience. Using 11C-raclopride PET we demonstrated increased endogenous dopamine release in the ventral striatum during Yoga Nidra meditation. Yoga Nidra is characterized...... by a depressed level of desire for action, associated with decreased blood flow in prefrontal, cerebellar and subcortical regions, structures thought to be organized in open loops subserving executive control. In the striatum, dopamine modulates excitatory glutamatergic synapses of the projections from...... the frontal cortex to striatal neurons, which in turn project back to the frontal cortex via the pallidum and ventral thalamus. The present study was designed to investigate whether endogenous dopamine release increases during loss of executive control in meditation. Participants underwent two 11C...

  19. Association Between Corporate Wellness Program Participation and Changes in Health Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, John C; Hartley, Stephen; Ozminkowski, Ronald J

    2015-10-01

    To assess the relationship between wellness program participation and employee health risks. Data from 173,901 health-risk appraisals and wellness program participation records were used to assess changes in seven health risks (blood pressure, body weight, cholesterol level, nutrition, physical inactivity, stress, and tobacco use). Controlling for baseline covariates, high-risk members who completed only a coaching program were significantly more likely to lower five out of seven health risks than were high-risk members in the comparison group. Participation in multiple wellness activities (eg, biometric screening) increased the odds that risks would be reduced.In addition, the number of risk levels that improved was greater than the total that worsened. This study provides evidence that wellness program participation was associated with significant risk reduction, particularly among individuals who participated in more than one program.

  20. Changes in spinal mobility with increasing age in women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Einkauf, D K; Gohdes, M L; Jensen, G M; Jewell, M J

    1987-03-01

    The purpose of our study was to determine changes in spinal mobility for women aged 20 to 84 years. Anterior flexion, right and left lateral flexion, and extension were measured on 109 healthy women. The modified Schober method was used to measure anterior flexion. Standard goniometry was used to measure lateral flexion and extension. The results of the study indicated that spinal mobility decreases with advancing age. The most significant (p less than .05) differences occurred between the two youngest and the two oldest age categories. Data gathered in this study indicate that physical therapists should consider the effects of age on spinal mobility when assessing spinal range of motion. A simple, objective method for measuring spinal mobility is presented. Suggestions for future research are given.

  1. Increasing public awareness and facilitating behavior change: Two guiding heuristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maibach, E.

    2016-12-01

    If there is a single aspiration that unifies the professionals who work on the challenges associated with global change, it is likely their desire to see policy makers, business managers and members of the public make decisions that are better informed by the realities of what we know about how to stabilize the climate and prevent needless harm to people and eco-systems. This calls an obvious question: What can we - as scientists and science organizations - to do more effectively promote evidence-based decision-making and actions by important decision-makers? In this talk I will distinguish between two related challenges: more effectively sharing what we know (i.e., improving our communication); and more effectively helping decision-makers take helpful actions (i.e., improving our efforts to facilitate behavior change). Drawing on both theory and empirical evidence in communication science, behavioral science and other related social sciences, I suggest two guiding heurstics - one for each of the two challenges - that will help scientists and science organizations improve the impact of their outreach efforts. To more effectively share what we know, we need "simple clear messages, repeated often, by a variety of trusted sources." To help people convert their good intentions into effective actions, we need to do more to "make the behaviors we are promoting easy, fun and popular." I refer to each of these as "heuristics" in the sense that they organize a relatively large amount of prescriptive information into a relatively easy to use method or process. In this talk, I will unpack each of these heurtistics with the aim of making them practical for all in attendance.

  2. Climate Change or Nuclear Power - Which Risk do we Prefer?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruce, Donald

    2006-01-01

    Climate change and nuclear power provide two of the biggest technological risks of our times. Both involve widespread risks, long-term wastes and inter-generational equity, but in rather different ways. If it came to a choice, which is the worse set of risks to run? Serious doubts have been raised whether the implementation of renewable energies and energy saving are able in practice to deliver quickly enough the radical reductions of CO 2 emissions that are needed to tackle climate change. Some countries may face a dilemma - to continue another generation of nuclear power or to accept that its CO 2 emissions will rise when current nuclear stations finish their time? This paper compares the risks, and explores the ethical issues around which a society would have to weigh up such a choice, the role of the precautionary principle, and the place of expert and lay evaluations of risk (full text of contribution)

  3. Infection increases vulnerability to climate change via effects on host thermal tolerance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenspan, Sasha E; Bower, Deborah S; Roznik, Elizabeth A; Pike, David A; Marantelli, Gerry; Alford, Ross A; Schwarzkopf, Lin; Scheffers, Brett R

    2017-08-24

    Unprecedented global climate change and increasing rates of infectious disease emergence are occurring simultaneously. Infection with emerging pathogens may alter the thermal thresholds of hosts. However, the effects of fungal infection on host thermal limits have not been examined. Moreover, the influence of infections on the heat tolerance of hosts has rarely been investigated within the context of realistic thermal acclimation regimes and potential anthropogenic climate change. We tested for effects of fungal infection on host thermal tolerance in a model system: frogs infected with the chytrid Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Infection reduced the critical thermal maxima (CT max ) of hosts by up to ~4 °C. Acclimation to realistic daily heat pulses enhanced thermal tolerance among infected individuals, but the magnitude of the parasitism effect usually exceeded the magnitude of the acclimation effect. In ectotherms, behaviors that elevate body temperature may decrease parasite performance or increase immune function, thereby reducing infection risk or the intensity of existing infections. However, increased heat sensitivity from infections may discourage these protective behaviors, even at temperatures below critical maxima, tipping the balance in favor of the parasite. We conclude that infectious disease could lead to increased uncertainty in estimates of species' vulnerability to climate change.

  4. Communicating Climate Change Risks for Adaptation in Coastal ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Communicating Climate Change Risks for Adaptation in Coastal and Delta Communities in Viet Nam. Decisions concerning climate change adaptation are necessarily made by local and national governments, but households, community groups and private enterprises need to be informed so that they can make decisions ...

  5. Acromegaly is associated with increased cancer risk: a survey in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terzolo, Massimo; Reimondo, Giuseppe; Berchialla, Paola; Ferrante, Emanuele; Malchiodi, Elena; De Marinis, Laura; Pivonello, Rosario; Grottoli, Silvia; Losa, Marco; Cannavo, Salvatore; Ferone, Diego; Montini, Marcella; Bondanelli, Marta; De Menis, Ernesto; Martini, Chiara; Puxeddu, Efisio; Velardo, Antonino; Peri, Alessandro; Faustini-Fustini, Marco; Tita, Patrizia; Pigliaru, Francesca; Peraga, Giulia; Borretta, Giorgio; Scaroni, Carla; Bazzoni, Nicoletta; Bianchi, Antonio; Berton, Alessandro; Serban, Andreea Liliana; Baldelli, Roberto; Fatti, Letizia Maria; Colao, Annamaria; Arosio, Maura

    2017-09-01

    It is debated if acromegalic patients have an increased risk to develop malignancies. The aim of the present study was to assess the standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) of different types of cancer in acromegaly on a large series of acromegalic patients managed in the somatostatin analogs era. It was evaluated the incidence of cancer in an Italian nationwide multicenter cohort study of 1512 acromegalic patients, 624 men and 888 women, mean age at diagnosis 45 ± 13 years, followed up for a mean of 10 years (12573 person-years) in respect to the general Italian population. Cancer was diagnosed in 124 patients, 72 women and 52 men. The SIRs for all cancers was significantly increased compared to the general Italian population (expected: 88, SIR 1.41; 95% CI, 1.18-1.68, P  < 0.001). In the whole series, we found a significantly increased incidence of colorectal cancer (SIR 1.67; 95% CI, 1.07-2.58, P  = 0.022), kidney cancer (SIR 2.87; 95% CI, 1.55-5.34, P  < 0.001) and thyroid cancer (SIR 3.99; 95% CI, 2.32-6.87, P  < 0.001). The exclusion of 11 cancers occurring before diagnosis of acromegaly (all in women) did not change remarkably the study outcome. In multivariate analysis, the factors significantly associated with an increased risk of malignancy were age and family history of cancer, with a non-significant trend for the estimated duration of acromegaly before diagnosis. In conclusion, we found evidence that acromegaly in Italy is associated with a moderate increase in cancer risk. © 2017 Society for Endocrinology.

  6. ESTIMATING RISK TO CALIFORNIA ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FROM PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathaye, Jayant; Dale, Larry; Larsen, Peter; Fitts, Gary; Koy, Kevin; Lewis, Sarah; Lucena, Andre

    2011-06-22

    This report outlines the results of a study of the impact of climate change on the energy infrastructure of California and the San Francisco Bay region, including impacts on power plant generation; transmission line and substation capacity during heat spells; wildfires near transmission lines; sea level encroachment upon power plants, substations, and natural gas facilities; and peak electrical demand. Some end-of-century impacts were projected:Expected warming will decrease gas-fired generator efficiency. The maximum statewide coincident loss is projected at 10.3 gigawatts (with current power plant infrastructure and population), an increase of 6.2 percent over current temperature-induced losses. By the end of the century, electricity demand for almost all summer days is expected to exceed the current ninetieth percentile per-capita peak load. As much as 21 percent growth is expected in ninetieth percentile peak demand (per-capita, exclusive of population growth). When generator losses are included in the demand, the ninetieth percentile peaks may increase up to 25 percent. As the climate warms, California's peak supply capacity will need to grow faster than the population.Substation capacity is projected to decrease an average of 2.7 percent. A 5C (9F) air temperature increase (the average increase predicted for hot days in August) will diminish the capacity of a fully-loaded transmission line by an average of 7.5 percent.The potential exposure of transmission lines to wildfire is expected to increase with time. We have identified some lines whose probability of exposure to fire are expected to increase by as much as 40 percent. Up to 25 coastal power plants and 86 substations are at risk of flooding (or partial flooding) due to sea level rise.

  7. Time-dependent changes in mortality and transformation risk in MDS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Tuechler, Heinz; Sanz, Guillermo; Schanz, Julie; Garcia-Manero, Guillermo; Solé, Francesc; Bennett, John M; Bowen, David; Fenaux, Pierre; Dreyfus, Francois; Kantarjian, Hagop; Kuendgen, Andrea; Malcovati, Luca; Cazzola, Mario; Cermak, Jaroslav; Fonatsch, Christa; Le Beau, Michelle M; Slovak, Marilyn L; Levis, Alessandro; Luebbert, Michael; Maciejewski, Jaroslaw; Machherndl-Spandl, Sigrid; Magalhaes, Silvia M M; Miyazaki, Yasushi; Sekeres, Mikkael A; Sperr, Wolfgang R; Stauder, Reinhard; Tauro, Sudhir; Valent, Peter; Vallespi, Teresa; van de Loosdrecht, Arjan A; Germing, Ulrich; Haase, Detlef; Greenberg, Peter L

    2016-08-18

    In myelodysplastic syndromes (MDSs), the evolution of risk for disease progression or death has not been systematically investigated despite being crucial for correct interpretation of prognostic risk scores. In a multicenter retrospective study, we described changes in risk over time, the consequences for basal prognostic scores, and their potential clinical implications. Major MDS prognostic risk scoring systems and their constituent individual predictors were analyzed in 7212 primary untreated MDS patients from the International Working Group for Prognosis in MDS database. Changes in risk of mortality and of leukemic transformation over time from diagnosis were described. Hazards regarding mortality and acute myeloid leukemia transformation diminished over time from diagnosis in higher-risk MDS patients, whereas they remained stable in lower-risk patients. After approximately 3.5 years, hazards in the separate risk groups became similar and were essentially equivalent after 5 years. This fact led to loss of prognostic power of different scoring systems considered, which was more pronounced for survival. Inclusion of age resulted in increased initial prognostic power for survival and less attenuation in hazards. If needed for practicability in clinical management, the differing development of risks suggested a reasonable division into lower- and higher-risk MDS based on the IPSS-R at a cutoff of 3.5 points. Our data regarding time-dependent performance of prognostic scores reflect the disparate change of risks in MDS subpopulations. Lower-risk patients at diagnosis remain lower risk whereas initially high-risk patients demonstrate decreasing risk over time. This change of risk should be considered in clinical decision making. © 2016 by The American Society of Hematology.

  8. Estimating Potential Increased Bladder Cancer Risk Due to Increased Bromide Concentrations in Sources of Disinfected Drinking Waters - slides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Public water systems are increasingly facing higher bromide levels in their source waters from anthropogenic contamination through coal-fired powerplants, conventional oil and gas extraction, and hydraulic fracturing. Climate change is likely to exacerbate this in coming years. W...

  9. Estimating Potential Increased Bladder Cancer Risk Due to Increased Bromide Concentrations in Sources of Disinfected Drinking Waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Public water systems are increasingly facing higher bromide levels in their source waters from anthropogenic contamination through coal-fired power plants, conventional oil and gas extraction, and hydraulic fracturing. Climate change is likely to exacerbate this in coming years. ...

  10. Effective Risk Management Policy choices under Climate Change: An Application to Saskatchewan Crop Sector

    OpenAIRE

    Kimura, Shingo; Anton, Jesus; Cattaneo, Andrea

    2012-01-01

    There is growing concern about the impact of climate change on agriculture and the potential need for better risk management instruments that respond to a more risky environment. This is based on the widespread assumption that climate change will increase weather and yield variability and will expose farmers to higher levels of risk. But it is not obvious what will be the net impact of those on the distribution of yields and its correlation with weather indexes. Five stylized scenarios for cr...

  11. Temperate mountain forest biodiversity under climate change: compensating negative effects by increasing structural complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braunisch, Veronika; Coppes, Joy; Arlettaz, Raphaël; Suchant, Rudi; Zellweger, Florian; Bollmann, Kurt

    2014-01-01

    Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species' occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species' occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying

  12. Temperate mountain forest biodiversity under climate change: compensating negative effects by increasing structural complexity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronika Braunisch

    Full Text Available Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1 how species' occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2 to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3 whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species' occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated

  13. Screening Men at Increased Risk for Prostate Cancer Diagnosis: Model Estimates of Benefits and Harms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulati, Roman; Cheng, Heather H; Lange, Paul H; Nelson, Peter S; Etzioni, Ruth

    2017-02-01

    Guidelines for PSA screening in subgroups with increased risk of prostate cancer diagnosis due to race or genotype are underdeveloped. Our goal was to investigate types of increased prostate cancer risk and implications for targeted screening. We investigated computer simulation of subgroups with average and hypothetical increased risk(s) of onset of latent disease, progression, and/or cancer-specific death. For each subgroup, we predicted lifetime probabilities of overdiagnosis and life saved under more and less intensive PSA screening strategies. An application estimated risks of onset among BRCA1/2 mutation carriers in the Identification of Men with a genetic predisposition to ProstAte Cancer: Targeted screening in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and controls (IMPACT) study using maximum likelihood. Our simulations implied PSA screening can save more lives among subgroups with increased risk than with average risk, but more intensive screening did not always improve harm-benefit trade-offs. IMPACT data were consistent with increased risks of onset among BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers [HR = 1.05; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.63-1.59 and HR = 1.81; 95% CI, 1.14-2.78, respectively]. Our analysis suggests screening BRCA2 mutation carriers earlier and more frequently than the average-risk population, but a lower PSA threshold for biopsy is unlikely to improve outcomes. Effective screening in men with increased prostate cancer risk depends on the manner in which the risk is increased. More intensive screening is not always optimal. Guidelines for screening men at increased prostate cancer risk should consider the mechanism inducing the increased risk. Although the benefit of screening may be greater in men with increased risks, more intensive screening is not always appropriate. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(2); 222-7. ©2016 AACR. ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

  14. Increasing fall risk awareness using wearables: A fall risk awareness protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danielsen, Asbjørn; Olofsen, Hans; Bremdal, Bernt Arild

    2016-10-01

    Each year about a third of elderly aged 65 or older experience a fall. Many of these falls may have been avoided if fall risk assessment and prevention tools where available in a daily living situation. We identify what kind of information is relevant for doing fall risk assessment and prevention using wearable sensors in a daily living environment by investigating current research, distinguishing between prospective and context-aware fall risk assessment and prevention. Based on our findings, we propose a fall risk awareness protocol as a fall prevention tool integrating both wearables and ambient sensing technology into a single platform. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  15. Efficacy of lifestyle change psychological intervention in coronary risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pugliese, Rita; Zanella, Maria Tereza; Blay, Sérgio Luís; Plavinik, Frida; Andrade, Marco Antonio; Galvão, Roberto

    2007-10-01

    To evaluate the efficacy of a program of lifestyle change through psychological intervention, combined with pharmacological therapy, for coronary risk reduction in uncontrolled hypertensive patients with overweight and dyslipidemia over 11 months of follow-up. A randomized controlled trial with 74 patients assigned to three different treatment programs. One group (CT) only received conventional pharmacological treatment. Another group (OG) received pharmacological treatment and participated in a guidance program to control cardiovascular risk factors. A third group (LSPI) received pharmacological treatment and participated in a brief psychological intervention program for reduction of estresse levels and changing of eating behavior. The main measure was the Framingham risk index. CT patients presented an average reduction of 18% (p = 0.001) in coronary risk; OG patients elevated the risk by 0.8% (NS) and the LSPI group showed an average reduction of 27% on the Framingham risk index (p = 0.001). Pharmacological treatment combined with psychological intervention for reduction of estresse level and changing of eating behavior resulted in additional benefits in coronary risk reduction.

  16. Autism and increased paternal age related changes in global levels of gene expression regulation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark D Alter

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available A causal role of mutations in multiple general transcription factors in neurodevelopmental disorders including autism suggested that alterations in global levels of gene expression regulation might also relate to disease risk in sporadic cases of autism. This premise can be tested by evaluating for changes in the overall distribution of gene expression levels. For instance, in mice, variability in hippocampal-dependent behaviors was associated with variability in the pattern of the overall distribution of gene expression levels, as assessed by variance in the distribution of gene expression levels in the hippocampus. We hypothesized that a similar change in variance might be found in children with autism. Gene expression microarrays covering greater than 47,000 unique RNA transcripts were done on RNA from peripheral blood lymphocytes (PBL of children with autism (n = 82 and controls (n = 64. Variance in the distribution of gene expression levels from each microarray was compared between groups of children. Also tested was whether a risk factor for autism, increased paternal age, was associated with variance. A decrease in the variance in the distribution of gene expression levels in PBL was associated with the diagnosis of autism and a risk factor for autism, increased paternal age. Traditional approaches to microarray analysis of gene expression suggested a possible mechanism for decreased variance in gene expression. Gene expression pathways involved in transcriptional regulation were down-regulated in the blood of children with autism and children of older fathers. Thus, results from global and gene specific approaches to studying microarray data were complimentary and supported the hypothesis that alterations at the global level of gene expression regulation are related to autism and increased paternal age. Global regulation of transcription, thus, represents a possible point of convergence for multiple etiologies of autism and other

  17. Increased risk of ALL among premature infants is not explained by increased prevalence of pre-leukemic cell clones

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lausten-Thomsen, Ulrik; Madsen, Hans Ole; Vestergaard, Therese Risom

    2010-01-01

    in the prevalence and magnitude of preleukaemic t(12;21)-positive cells compared to previously published data from mature children could be demonstrated. This indirectly supports the theory that prevalence and quantity of preleukaemic t(12;21)-positive cells peaks at term or early childhood and that exogenous......(-4) in 1% of newborns (i.e. 100-fold their risk of t(12;21)-positive ALL), but only at levels of 10(-5) to 10(-6) in 0.5% adults. As the risk of developing ALL is inversely associated to the gestational age at birth, we investigated if this increased risk could be explained by an increase in prevalence...

  18. Increase in quantity and quality of suitable areas for invasive species as climate changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertelsmeier, Cleo; Luque, Gloria M; Courchamp, Franck

    2013-12-01

    As climatically suitable range projections become increasingly used to assess distributions of species, we recommend systematic assessments of the quality of habitat in addition to the classical binary classification of habitat. We devised a method to assess occurrence probability, captured by a climatic suitability index, through which we could determine variations in the quality of potential habitat. This relative risk assessment circumvents the use of an arbitrary suitability threshold. We illustrated our method with 2 case studies on invasive ant species. We estimated invasion potential of the destroyer ant (Monomorium destructor) and the European fire ant (Myrmica rubra) on a global scale currently and by 2080 with climate change. We found that 21.1% of the world's landmass currently has a suitable climate for the destroyer ant and 16% has a suitable climate for European fire ant. Our climatic suitability index showed that both ant species would benefit from climate change, but in different ways. The size of the potential distribution increased by 35.8% for the destroyer ant. Meanwhile, the total area of potential distribution remained the same for the European fire ant (>0.05%), but the level of climatic suitability within this range increased greatly and led to an improvement in habitat quality (i.e., of invasive species' establishment likelihood). Either through quantity or quality of suitable areas, both invasive ant species are likely to increase the extent of their invasion in the future, following global climate change. Our results show that species may increase their range if either more areas become suitable or if the available areas present improved suitability. Studies in which an arbitrary suitability threshold was used may overlook changes in area quality within climatically suitable areas and as a result reach incorrect predictions. Incremento de la Cantidad y Calidad de Áreas Idóneas para Especies Invasoras a Medida que Cambia el Clima.

  19. Framing risk and uncertainty in social science articles on climate change, 1995-2012

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shaw, C.; Hellsten, I.; Nerlich, B.; Crichton, J.; Candlin, C.N.; Firkins, A.S.

    2016-01-01

    The issue of climate change is intimately linked to notions of risk and uncertainty, concepts that pose challenges to climate science, climate change communication, and science-society interactions. While a large majority of climate scientists are increasingly certain about the causes of climate

  20. Pregnancy-induced changes in breast cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russo, Irma H; Russo, Jose

    2011-09-01

    Breast cancer is the malignant disease most frequently diagnosed in women of all races and nationalities. Since the 1970s the worldwide incidence of this disease has increased 30-40% in postmenopausal women, in whom, paradoxically, the risk of developing breast cancer is significantly reduced by an early first full term pregnancy (FTP) as compared to nulliparous and late parous women. Although the cause of breast cancer is not known, the mechanisms mediating the protection conferred by an early FTP have been identified to reside in the breast itself, and to be modulated by endogenous and environmental exposures that might negatively affect this organ during specific windows in its development that extend from prenatal life until the first pregnancy. Soon after conception the embryo initiates the production of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG), the glycoprotein hormone that is diagnostic of pregnancy. HCG in conjunction with ovarian steroid hormones primes the hypothalamic neuroendocrine system for maintaining the pregnancy. Higher levels of hCG during the first trimester of pregnancy have been associated with a reduction in maternal breast cancer incidence after age 50. In preclinical studies it has been demonstrated that both FTP and hCG treatment of virgin rats prevent the development of chemically-induced mammary tumors, a phenomenon mediated by the differentiation of the mammary gland epithelial cells prior to carcinogen exposure. Complete differentiation proceeds through complex morphological, physiological and molecular changes that occur during pregnancy and lactation, that ultimately result in increased DNA repair capabilities of the mammary epithelium, activation of genes controlling differentiation and programmed cell death and imprinting in the breast epithelium a specific and permanent genomic signature of pregnancy. This signature is indicative of a reduced breast cancer risk and serves as a molecular biomarker of differentiation for evaluating the

  1. Alcohol intake in pregnancy increases the child's risk of atopic dermatitis. the COPSAC prospective birth cohort study of a high risk population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carson, Charlotte Giwercman; Halkjaer, Liselotte Brydensholt; Jensen, Signe Marie

    2012-01-01

    Atopic dermatitis has increased four-fold over the recent decades in developed countries, indicating that changes in environmental factors associated with lifestyle may play an important role in this epidemic. It has been proposed that alcohol consumption may be one contributing risk factor...... in this development....

  2. Changes in cardiovascular disease risk and behavioural risk factors before the introduction of a health check programme in England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alageel, Samah; Wright, Alison J; Gulliford, Martin C

    2016-10-01

    A population-based programme of health checks was introduced for adults in England in 2011 for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and risk factors management. The aim was to evaluate changes in cardiovascular risk and behavioural risk factors in a health check eligible population in England from 1994 to 2013, by using repeated cross-sectional design using seven surveys of the Health Survey for England. Measures included traditional CVD risk factors and behavioural risk factors. Linear trends were estimated allowing for sampling design. The surveys comprised 49,805 adults aged 45 to 74years; 30,639 were free from cardiovascular comorbidity; 16,041 (52%) had complete data for quantitative risk factors. Between 1994 and 2013, systolic blood pressure decreased by 3.1 (95% confidence interval 2.5 to 3.6) mmHg per decade in men and 5.0 (4.5 to 5.5) in women. Total cholesterol decreased by 0.20 (0.16 to 0.24) mmol/l per decade in men; 0.23 (0.19 to 0.26) in women. Smoking declined by 6% (5% to 8%) per decade in men; 7% (6% - 8%) in women. The proportion with CVD-risk ≥20% declined by 6.8% per decade in men; 2.4% in women. Multiple behavioural risk factors were strongly associated with estimated CVD-risk, but improving trends in traditional CVD risk factors were inconsistent with increasing indicators of adiposity. Long-term declines in traditional risk factors contributed to reductions in estimated CVD-risk prior to the introduction of a health check programme. Behaviour change interventions for multiple risk factor exposures remain a key area for future research. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Edge Effects along a Seagrass Margin Result in an Increased Grazing Risk on Posidonia australis Transplants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Statton, John; Gustin-Craig, Samuel; Dixon, Kingsley W; Kendrick, Gary A

    2015-01-01

    A key issue in habitat restoration are the changes in ecological processes that occur when fragments of habitat are lost, resulting in the persistence of habitat-degraded margins. Margins often create or enhance opportunities for negative plant-herbivore interactions, preventing natural or assisted re-establishment of native vegetation into the degraded area. However, at some distance from the habitat margin these negative interactions may relax. Here, we posit that the intensity of species interactions in a fragmented Posidonia australis seagrass meadow may be spatially dependent on proximity to the seagrass habitat edge, whereby the risk of grazing is high and the probability of survival of seagrass transplants is low. To test this, transplants were planted 2 m within the meadow, on the meadow edge at 0m, and at 2m, 10m, 30m, 50m and 100m distance from the edge of the seagrass meadow into the unvegetated sand sheet. There was an enhanced grazing risk 0-10m from the edge, but decreased sharply with increasing distances (>30m). Yet, the risk of grazing was minimal inside the seagrass meadow, indicating that grazers may use the seagrass meadow for refuge but are not actively grazing within it. The relationship between short-term herbivory risk and long-term survival was not straightforward, suggesting that other environmental filters are also affecting survival of P. australis transplants within the study area. We found that daily probability of herbivory was predictable and operating over a small spatial scale at the edge of a large, intact seagrass meadow. These findings highlight the risk from herbivory can be high, and a potential contributing factor to seagrass establishment in restoration programs.

  4. Increased risk of traffic accidents in subjects with latent toxoplasmosis: a retrospective case-control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malý Marek

    2002-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The parasite Toxoplasma gondii infects 30–60% of humans worldwide. Latent toxoplasmosis, i.e., the life-long presence of Toxoplasma cysts in neural and muscular tissues, leads to prolongation of reaction times in infected subjects. It is not known, however, whether the changes observed in the laboratory influence the performance of subjects in real-life situations. Methods The seroprevalence of latent toxoplasmosis in subjects involved in traffic accidents (N = 146 and in the general population living in the same area (N = 446 was compared by a Mantel-Haenszel test for age-stratified data. Correlation between relative risk of traffic accidents and level of anti-Toxoplasma antibody titre was evaluated with the Cochran-Armitage test for trends. Results A higher seroprevalence was found in the traffic accident set than in the general population (Chi2MH = 21.45, p 95= 1.76–4.01 times higher risk of an accident than the toxoplasmosis-negative subjects. The OR significantly increased with level of anti-Toxoplasma antibody titre (p 95 = 1.14–3.03 for the 99 subjects with low antibody titres (8 and 16, higher (OR = 4.78, C.I.95 = 2.39–9.59 for the 37 subjects with moderate titres (32 and 64, and very high (OR = 16.03, C.I.95 = 1.89–135.66 for the 6 subjects with titres higher than 64. Conclusion The subjects with latent toxoplasmosis have significantly increased risk of traffic accidents than the noninfected subjects. Relative risk of traffic accidents decreases with the duration of infection. These results suggest that 'asymptomatic' acquired toxoplasmosis might in fact represent a serious and highly underestimated public health problem, as well as an economic problem.

  5. Climate change induced risk analysis of Addis Ababa city (Ethiopia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jalayer, Fatemeh; Herslund, Lise; Cavan, Gina; Printz, Andreas; Simonis, Ingo; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie; Hellevik, Siri; Fekade, Rebka; Nebebe, Alemu; Woldegerima, Tekle; Workalemahu, Liku; Workneh, Abraham; Yonas, Nebyou; Abebe Bekele, Essete; Yeshitela, Kumelachew

    2013-04-01

    CLUVA (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa; http://www.cluva.eu/) is a 3 years project, funded by the European Commission in 2010. Its objective is to develop context-centered methods to assess vulnerability and increase knowledge on managing climate related risks and to estimate the impacts of climate changes in the next 40 years at urban scale in Africa. The project downscales IPCC climate projections to evaluate threats to selected African test cities; mainly floods, sea-level rise, droughts, heat waves, desertification. It also evaluates and links: social vulnerability; urban green structures and ecosystem services; urban-rural interfaces; vulnerability of urban built environment and lifelines; and related institutional and governance dimensions of adaptation. CLUVA combines assessment approaches to investigate how cities, communities and households can resist and cope with, as well as recover from climate induced hazards. This multi-scale and multi-disciplinary qualitative, quantitative and probabilistic approach of CLUVA is currently being applied to selected African test cities (Addis Ababa - Ethiopia; Dar es Salaam - Tanzania; Douala - Cameroun; Ouagadougou - Burkina Faso; St. Louis - Senegal). In particular, the poster will report on the progresses of the Addis Ababa case study. Addis Ababa, the largest city in Ethiopia, is exposed to heat waves, drought, and, more recently, to flash floods. Due to undulating topography, poor waste management and the absence of sustainable storm water management, Addis Ababa is prone to severe flood events during the rainy seasons. Metropolitan Addis Ababa is crossed by several small watercourses. Torrential rains, very common during the rainy season, cause a sudden rise in the flow of these water courses, inundating and damaging the settlements along their banks and affecting the livelihood of the local population. The combination of climate change and development pressures are expected to exacerbate the

  6. Infradiaphragmatic irradiation and high procarbazine doses increase colorectal cancer risk in Hodgkin lymphoma survivors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Eggermond, Anna M; Schaapveld, Michael; Janus, Cécile Pm

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) survivors are at increased risk of second malignancies, but few studies have assessed colorectal cancer (CRC) risk after HL treatment. We assessed long-term, subsite-specific CRC risk associated with specific radiation fields and chemotherapy regimens. METHODS: I...

  7. Increased risk of mortality in Alzheimer's disease patients with higher education? A replication study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geerlings, M. I.; Deeg, D. J.; Schmand, B.; Lindeboom, J.; Jonker, C.

    1997-01-01

    The objective of this study was to replicate findings from an earlier study by Stern et al. of an increased risk of mortality in Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients with higher levels of education and to compare this risk with the risk of death in the elderly population. As part of a community-based

  8. Infradiaphragmatic irradiation and high procarbazine doses increase colorectal cancer risk in Hodgkin lymphoma survivors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Eggermond, Anna M.; Schaapveld, Michael; Janus, Cécile Pm; de Boer, Jan Paul; Krol, Augustinus Dg; Zijlstra, Josée M.; van der Maazen, Richard Wm; Kremer, Leontien C.; van Leerdam, Monique E.; Louwman, Marieke Wj; Visser, Otto; de Bruin, Marie L.; Aleman, Berthe Mp; van Leeuwen, Flora E.

    2017-01-01

    Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) survivors are at increased risk of second malignancies, but few studies have assessed colorectal cancer (CRC) risk after HL treatment. We assessed long-term, subsite-specific CRC risk associated with specific radiation fields and chemotherapy regimens. In a Dutch cohort of 3121

  9. Infradiaphragmatic irradiation and high procarbazine doses increase colorectal cancer risk in Hodgkin lymphoma survivors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eggermond, A.M. van; Schaapveld, M.; Janus, C.P.; Boer, J.P. de; Krol, A.D.; Zijlstra, J.M.; Maazen, R.W.M. van der; Kremer, L.C.; Leerdam, M.E. van; Louwman, M.W.; Visser, O; Bruin, M.L. De; Aleman, B.M.; Leeuwen, F.E. van

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) survivors are at increased risk of second malignancies, but few studies have assessed colorectal cancer (CRC) risk after HL treatment. We assessed long-term, subsite-specific CRC risk associated with specific radiation fields and chemotherapy regimens. METHODS: In a

  10. Mediterranean irrigation under climate change: more efficient irrigation needed to compensate increases in irrigation water requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fader, M.; Shi, S.; von Bloh, W.; Bondeau, A.; Cramer, W.

    2015-08-01

    Irrigation in the Mediterranean is of vital importance for food security, employment and economic development. This study systematically assesses how climate change and increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations may affect irrigation requirements in the Mediterranean region by 2080-2090. Future demographic change and technological improvements in irrigation systems are accounted for, as is the spread of climate forcing, warming levels and potential realization of the CO2-fertilization effect. Vegetation growth, phenology, agricultural production and irrigation water requirements and withdrawal were simulated with the process-based ecohydrological and agro-ecosystem model LPJmL after a large development that comprised the improved representation of Mediterranean crops. At present the Mediterranean region could save 35 % of water by implementing more efficient irrigation and conveyance systems. Some countries like Syria, Egypt and Turkey have higher saving potentials than others. Currently some crops, especially sugar cane and agricultural trees, consume in average more irrigation water per hectare than annual crops. Different crops show different magnitude of changes in net irrigation requirements due to climate change, being the increases most pronounced in agricultural trees. The Mediterranean area as a whole might face an increase in gross irrigation requirements between 4 and 18 % from climate change alone if irrigation systems and conveyance are not improved (2 °C global warming combined with full CO2-fertilization effect, and 5 °C global warming combined with no CO2-fertilization effect, respectively). Population growth increases these numbers to 22 and 74 %, respectively, affecting mainly the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean. However, improved irrigation technologies and conveyance systems have large water saving potentials, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean, and may be able to compensate to some degree the increases due to climate change and

  11. Incident Major Depressive Episodes increase the severity and risk of apathy in HIV infection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamat, Rujvi; Cattie, Jordan E.; Marcotte, Thomas D.; Woods, Steven Paul; Franklin, Donald R.; Corkran, Stephanie H.; Ellis, Ronald J.; Grant, Igor; Heaton, Robert K.

    2015-01-01

    Apathy and depression are inter-related yet separable and prevalent neuropsychiatric disturbances in persons infected with HIV. In the present study of 225 HIV+ persons, we investigated the role of an incident depressive episode in changes in apathy. Participants completed the apathy subscale of the Frontal Systems Behavior Scale during a detailed neuropsychiatric and neuromedical evaluation at visit 1 and again at approximately a 14 month follow-up. The Composite International Diagnostic Interview was used to obtain diagnoses of a new major depressive disorder. At their follow-up visit, participants were classified into four groups depending on their visit 1 elevation in apathy and new major depressive episode (MDE) status. Apathetic participants at baseline with a new MDE (n=23) were at risk for continued, clinically elevated apathy at follow-up, although severity of symptoms did not increase. Of the 144 participants without clinically elevated apathy at visit 1, those who developed a new MDE (n=16) had greater apathy symptomatology at follow-up than those without MDE. These findings suggest that HIV+ individuals, who do not as yet present with elevated apathy, may be at greater risk of elevated psychiatric distress should they experience a new/recurrent depressive episode. Thus, in the context of previous findings, it appears that although apathy and depression are separable constructs, they interact such that a new depressive episode is a risk factor for incident apathy. PMID:25679203

  12. Sodium content and sodium efflux of mononuclear leucocytes from young subjects at increased risk of developing essential hypertension

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, K E; Nielsen, J R; Klitgaard, N A

    1990-01-01

    Mononuclear leucocytes were used as a cellular model for the in vitro measurements of volume, sodium and potassium content, sodium efflux rate constants and absolute sodium efflux in order to assess any cellular changes in young men at increased risk of developing essential hypertension...

  13. An approach for using risk assessment in risk-informed decisions on plant-specific changes to the licensing basis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caruso, Mark A.; Cheok, Michael C.; Cunningham, Mark A.; Holahan, Gary M.; King, Thomas L.; Parry, Gareth W.; Ramey-Smith, Ann M.; Rubin, Mark P.; Thadani, Ashok C.

    1999-01-01

    This paper discusses an acceptable approach that the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission staff has proposed for using Probabilistic Risk Assessment in making decisions on changes to the licensing basis of a nuclear power plant. First, the overall philosophy of risk-informed decision-making, and the process framework are described. The philosophy is encapsulated in five principles, one of which states that, if the proposed change leads to an increase in core damage frequency or risk, the increases must be small and consistent with the intent of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Safety Goal Policy Statement. The second part of the paper discusses the use of PRA to demonstrate that this principle has been met. The discussion focuses on the acceptance guidelines, and on comparison of the PRA results with those guidelines. The difficulties that arise because of limitations in scope and analytical uncertainties are discussed and approaches to accommodate these difficulties in the decision-making are described

  14. Bupropion response on sleep quality in patients with depression: implications for increased cardiovascular disease risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schramm, Preetam J.; Poland, Russell E.; Rao, Uma

    2013-01-01

    Depression could be an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease. We assessed bupropion response in depressed patients by polysomnography (PSG) and cardiopulmonary coupling (CPC) variables. Nineteen subjects participated in a two-session, two consecutive night PSG protocol. Participants received either placebo or bupropion-SR 150 mg, orally, in a randomized, double-blind cross-over fashion on night two. Outcome variables were: sleep stages, REM latency, stable, unstable sleep and very low frequency coupling (VLFC). CPC analysis uses heart rate variability and the electrocardiogram’s R-wave amplitude fluctuations associated with respiration to generate frequency maps. Bupropion increased REM latency (p=0.043) but did not impact PSG sleep continuity, architecture and CPC variables. A trend (p=0.092) was observed towards increasing VLFC duration. Bupropion increased the number of stable-unstable sleep transitions (p=0.036). Moderate to strong correlations between PSG and CPC variables were found on placebo and bupropion nights. Limitations include a small sample size, limited power to detect CPC changes and lack of normal controls for comparison. Increased stable-unstable sleep transitions and VLFC duration may indicate vulnerability to cardiovascular disease due to their association with low heart rate variability that has been associated with increased mortality raising the question whether the beneficial effects of the antidepressant medication outweighs the impact on cardiopulmonary dynamics. PMID:24239431

  15. Walking-Induced Fatigue Leads to Increased Falls Risk in Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Steven; Colberg, Sheri R; Parson, Henri K; Neumann, Serina; Handel, Richard; Vinik, Etta J; Paulson, James; Vinik, Arthur I

    2016-05-01

    For older adults, falls are a serious health problem, with more than 30% of people older than 65 suffering a fall at least once a year. One element often overlooked in the assessment of falls is whether a person's balance, walking ability, and overall falls risk is affected by performing activities of daily living such as walking. This study assessed the immediate impact of incline walking at a moderate pace on falls risk, leg strength, reaction time, gait, and balance in 75 healthy adults from 30 to 79 years of age. Subjects were subdivided into 5 equal groups based on their age (group 1, 30-39 years; group 2, 40-49 years; group 3, 50-59 years; group 4, 60-69 years; group 5, 70-79 years). Each person's falls risk (using the Physiological Profile Assessment), simple reaction time, leg strength, walking ability, and standing balance were assessed before and after a period of incline walking on an automated treadmill. The walking task consisted of three 5-minute trials at a faster than preferred pace. Fatigue during walking was elicited by increasing the treadmill incline in increments of 2° (from level) every minute to a maximum of 8°. As predicted, significant age-related differences were observed before the walking activity. In general, increasing age was associated with declines in gait speed, lower limb strength, slower reaction times, and increases in overall falls risk. Following the treadmill task, older adults exhibited increased sway (path length 60-69 years; 10.2 ± 0.7 to 12.1 ± 0.7 cm: 70-79 years; 12.8 ± 1.1 to 15.1 ± 0.8 cm), slower reaction times (70-79 years; 256 ± 6 to 287 ± 8 ms), and declines in lower limb strength (60-69 years; 36 ± 2 to 31 ± 1 kg: 70-79 years; 32.3 ± 2 to 27 ± 1 kg). However, a significant increase in overall falls risk (pre; 0.51 ± 0.17: post; 1.01 ± 0.18) was only seen in the oldest group (70-79 years). For all other persons (30-69 years), changes resulting from the

  16. Increasing weather-related impacts on European population under climate and demographic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forzieri, Giovanni; Cescatti, Alessandro; Batista e Silva, Filipe; Kovats, Sari R.; Feyen, Luc

    2017-04-01

    Over the last three decades the overwhelming majority of disasters have been caused by weather-related events. The observed rise in weather-related disaster losses has been largely attributed to increased exposure and to a lesser degree to global warming. Recent studies suggest an intensification in the climatology of multiple weather extremes in Europe over the coming decades in view of climate change, while urbanization continues. In view of these pressures, understanding and quantifying the potential impacts of extreme weather events on future societies is imperative in order to identify where and to what extent their livelihoods will be at risk in the future, and develop timely and effective adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies. Here we show a comprehensive assessment of single- and multi-hazard impacts on the European population until the year 2100. For this purpose, we developed a novel methodology that quantifies the human impacts as a multiplicative function of hazard, exposure and population vulnerability. We focus on seven of the most impacting weather-related hazards - including heat and cold waves, wildfires, droughts, river and coastal floods and windstorms - and evaluated their spatial and temporal variations in intensity and frequency under a business-as-usual climate scenario. Long-term demographic dynamics were modelled to assess exposure developments under a corresponding middle-of-the-road scenario. Vulnerability of humans to weather extremes was appraised based on more than 2300 records of weather-related disasters. The integration of these elements provides a range of plausible estimates of extreme weather-related risks for future European generations. Expected impacts on population are quantified in terms of fatalities and number of people exposed. We find a staggering rise in fatalities from extreme weather events, with the projected death toll by the end of the century amounting to more than 50 times the present number of people

  17. Do Negative Affect Characteristics and Subjective Memory Concerns Increase Risk for Late Life Anxiety?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkes, Chelsey M.; Wilson, Helen W.; Woodard, John L.; Calamari, John E.

    2013-01-01

    To better understand the development and exacerbation of late-life anxiety, we tested a risk model positing that trait negative affect (NA) characteristics would interact with cognitive functioning, thereby increasing some older adults’ risk for increased anxiety symptoms. The moderator-mediator model consisted of measures of NA, cognitive functioning, and their interaction, as predictors of later Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale scores (HARS) via a mediational process, subjective memory concerns (SMCs). Older adults (aged 65-years and over; Mage = 76.7 years, SD = 6.90 years) completed evaluations four times over approximately 18 months. A latent growth curve model including Anxiety Sensitivity Index total score (ASI), Mattis Dementia Rating Scale-2 (DRS) total raw score, the ASI x DRS interaction, a SMC measure as mediator, HARS intercept (scores at times 3 and 4), and HARS slope provided good fit The ASI x DRS-2 interaction at Time 1 predicted HARS slope score (β = −.34, p <.05). When ASI score was high, stronger cognitive functioning was associated with fewer anxiety symptoms. The indirect effect of ASI score predicting HARS score 18-months later through the SMC mediator was statistically significant (β = .08, p < .05). Results suggest that the cognitive functioning changes associated with aging might contribute to the development of anxiety symptoms in older adults with specific NA traits. Implications for predicting and preventing late life anxiety disorders are discussed. PMID:23623610

  18. Subfertility Increases Risk of Testicular Cancer: Evidence from Population-Based Semen Samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Heidi A; Anderson, Ross E; Aston, Kenneth I; Carrell, Douglas T; Smith, Ken R; Hotaling, James M

    2015-01-01

    Objective To further understand the association between semen quality and cancer risk using well-defined semen parameters. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting Subfertility Heath and Assisted Reproduction (SHARE) study in Utah from 1994 to 2011. Patients 20,433 men from that underwent semen analysis (SA) and a sample of 20,433 fertile controls matched on age and birth year Interventions none. Main Outcome Measures Risk of all cancers, as well as site-specific results for prostate, testicular, and melanoma. Results Relative to fertile men, men with SA have an increased risk of testicular cancer (Hazard Rate Ratio (HR) =3.3). When the characterization of infertility is refined using individual semen parameters, we find that oligozoospermic men have an increased risk of cancer relative to fertile controls. This association is particularly strong for testicular cancer, with increased risk in men with oligozoospermia based on concentration (HR=11.9) and sperm count (HR=10.3). Men in the in the lowest quartile of motility (HR=4.1), viability (HR=6.6), morphology (HR=4.2) or total motile count (HR=6.9) have higher risk of testicular compared to fertile men. Men with sperm concentration and count in the 90th percentile of the distribution (≥178 M/ml and ≥579, respectively) and total motile count (TMC) have an increased risk of melanoma (HRConcentration=2.1; HRCount=2.7; HRTMC=2.0). We find no differences in cancer risk between azoospermic and fertile men. Conclusions Men with SA have an increased risk of testicular cancer that varies by semen quality. Unlike prior work, we did not find an association between azoospermia and increased cancer or testicular cancer risk. Capsule Subfertile men have an increased risk of testicular cancer that varies by semen quality. We did not find an association between azoospermia and increased cancer or testicular cancer risk. PMID:26604070

  19. The Racing-Game Effect: Why Do Video Racing Games Increase Risk-Taking Inclinations?

    OpenAIRE

    Fischer, Peter; Greitemeyer, Tobias; Morton, Thomas; Kastenmüller, Andreas; Postmes, Tom; Frey, Dieter; Kubitzki, Jörg; Odenwälder, Jörg

    2009-01-01

    The present studies investigated why video racing games increase players’ risk-taking inclinations. Four studies reveal that playing video racing games increases risk taking in a subsequent simulated road traffic situation, as well as risk-promoting cognitions and emotions, blood pressure,sensation seeking, and attitudes toward reckless driving. Study 1 ruled out the role of experimental demand in creating such effects. Studies 2 and 3 showed that the effect of playing video racing games on r...

  20. Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation using an economic pluvial flood risk framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    It is anticipated that climate change is likely to lead to an increasing risk level of flooding in cities in northern Europe. One challenging question is how to best address the increasing flood risk and assess the costs and benefits of adapting to such changes. We established an integrated...... approach for identification and assessment of climate change adaptation options by incorporating climate change impacts, flood inundation modelling, economic tool and risk assessment and management. The framework is further extended and adapted by embedding a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the total...... uncertainty bounds propagated through the evaluation and identify the relative contribution of inherent uncertainties in the assessment. The case study is a small urban catchment located in Skibhus, Odense where no significant city development is anticipated. Two adaptation scenarios, namely pipe enlargement...

  1. Different risk-increasing drugs in recurrent versus single fallers: are recurrent fallers a distinct population?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Askari, Marjan; Eslami, Saied; Scheffer, Alice C.; Medlock, Stephanie; de Rooij, Sophia E.; van der Velde, Nathalie; Abu-Hanna, Ameen

    2013-01-01

    Polypharmacy, and specifically the use of multiple fall-risk-increasing drugs (FRID), have been associated with increased risk of falling in older age. However, it is not yet clear whether the known set of FRIDs can be extrapolated to recurrent fallers, since they form a distinct group of more

  2. Does lamotrigine use in pregnancy increase orofacial cleft risk relative to other malformations?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dolk, H.; Jentink, J.; Loane, M.; de Jong-van den Berg, L. T. W.; Morris, Joan K.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To investigate whether first trimester exposure to lamotrigine (LTG) monotherapy is specifically associated with an increased risk of orofacial clefts (OCs) relative to other malformations, in response to a signal regarding increased OC risk. Methods: Population-based case-control study

  3. Increased risk of intraoperative and early postoperative periprosthetic femoral fracture with uncemented stems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindberg-Larsen, Martin; Jørgensen, Christoffer C; Solgaard, Søren

    2017-01-01

    .4 per 10 years, CI: 1.2-1.6) were associated with increased risk of periprosthetic femoral fracture when analyzed using multivariable regression analysis. Interpretation - Uncemented femoral components were associated with an increased risk of early periprosthetic femoral fractures, especially...

  4. Energy infrastructure in India: Profile and risks under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garg, Amit; Naswa, Prakriti; Shukla, P.R.

    2015-01-01

    India has committed large investments to energy infrastructure assets-power plants, refineries, energy ports, pipelines, roads, railways, etc. The coastal infrastructure being developed to meet the rising energy imports is vulnerable to climate extremes. This paper provides an overview of climate risks to energy infrastructures in India and details two case studies – a crude oil importing port and a western coast railway transporting coal. The climate vulnerability of the port has been mapped using an index while that of the railway has been done through a damage function for RCP 4.5.0 and 8.5 scenarios. Our analysis shows that risk management through adaptation is likely to be very expensive. The system risks can be even greater and might adversely affect energy security and access objectives. Aligning sustainable development and climate adaptation measures can deliver substantial co-benefits. The key policy recommendations include: i) mandatory vulnerability assessment to future climate risks for energy infrastructures; ii) project and systemic risks in the vulnerability index; iii) adaptation funds for unmitigated climate risks; iv) continuous monitoring of climatic parameters and implementation of adaptation measures, and iv) sustainability actions along energy infrastructures that enhance climate resilience and simultaneously deliver co-benefits to local agents. -- Highlights: •Climate risks to energy infrastructures adversely impact energy security. •Case studies of a port and a railway show their future climate change vulnerability. •Managing climate-induced risks through preventive adaptation policies

  5. Major life events and the risk of ischaemic heart disease: does accumulation increase the risk?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ingelise; Diderichsen, Finn; Kornerup, Henriette

    2011-01-01

    a dose-response association with psychological risk factors with highest estimates for those exposed to MLE in all three life domains: VE [odds ratio (OR)¿=¿15.07; 95% CI 8.97-25.31] and use of tranquillizers (OR¿=¿4.41; 95% CI 3.10-6.26). CONCLUSION: This prospective study finds no associations between......, there were no associations between MLE and incidence of IHD. However, being placed in care during childhood was associated with a higher risk of IHD among women [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.36; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.97-1.89], but a lower risk of IHD among men (HR¿=¿0.72; 95% CI 0.51-1.03). MLE showed...

  6. Loss of Genetic Diversity and Increased Subdivision in an Endemic Alpine Stonefly Threatened by Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve Jordan

    Full Text Available Much remains unknown about the genetic status and population connectivity of high-elevation and high-latitude freshwater invertebrates, which often persist near snow and ice masses that are disappearing due to climate change. Here we report on the conservation genetics of the meltwater stonefly Lednia tumana (Ricker of Montana, USA, a cold-water obligate species. We sequenced 1530 bp of mtDNA from 116 L. tumana individuals representing "historic" (>10 yr old and 2010 populations. The dominant haplotype was common in both time periods, while the second-most-common haplotype was found only in historic samples, having been lost in the interim. The 2010 populations also showed reduced gene and nucleotide diversity and increased genetic isolation. We found lower genetic diversity in L. tumana compared to two other North American stonefly species, Amphinemura linda (Ricker and Pteronarcys californica Newport. Our results imply small effective sizes, increased fragmentation, limited gene flow, and loss of genetic variation among contemporary L. tumana populations, which can lead to reduced adaptive capacity and increased extinction risk. This study reinforces concerns that ongoing glacier loss threatens the persistence of L. tumana, and provides baseline data and analysis of how future environmental change could impact populations of similar organisms.

  7. The High-mountain Cryosphere: Environmental Changes and Human Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Shahgedanova

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Reviewed: The High-mountain Cryosphere: Environmental Changes and Human Risks Edited by Christian Huggel, Mark Carey, John J. Clague, and Andreas Kääb. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2015. xii + 363 pp. Hardcover: US$ 140.00, ISBN 978-1-107-06584-0. E-book: US$ 112.00, ISBN 978-1-316-35515-2.

  8. A Risk Analysis for Asset Management Considering Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Orcesi, André D.; Chemineau, Hélène; Lin, P.H.; van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; van Erp, H.R.N.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents an optimization framework for highway infrastructure elements that integrates risk profiles (for infrastructures) and economic aspects. One main goal is to assess the necessary additional effort to satisfy performance constraints under different scenarios of climate change. In

  9. Interpregnancy weight change and risk for adverse perinatal outcome

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bogaerts, A.F.L.; Van den Bergh, B.R.H.; Ameye, L.; Witters, I.; Martens, E.; Timmerman, D.; Devlieger, R.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To examine the association between interpregnancy weight change and the risk for adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes. Methods: All live-born singleton births delivered at 21–42 weeks of gestation in women who had their first two consecutive births between 2009 and 2011 in Flanders (the

  10. Risk assessment tools to identify women with increased risk of osteoporotic fracture. Complexity or simplicity?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Katrine Hass; Friis-Holmberg, Teresa; Hermann, Anne Pernille

    2013-01-01

    of existing valid and reliable risk assessment tools for prediction of osteoporotic fractures. Additionally, we aimed to determine if the performance each tool was sufficient for practical use and lastly to examine whether the complexity of the tools influenced their discriminative power. We searched Pub...

  11. Does Drought Increase the Risk of Insects Developing Behavioral Resistance to Systemic Insecticides?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khodaverdi, Haleh; Fowles, Trevor; Bick, Emily; Nansen, Christian

    2016-10-01

    Increases in severity and frequency of drought periods, average global temperatures, and more erratic fluctuations in rainfall patterns due to climate change are predicted to have a dramatic impact on agricultural production systems. Insect pest populations in agricultural and horticultural systems are also expected to be impacted, both in terms of their spatial and temporal distributions and in their status as pest species. In this opinion-based article, we discuss how indirect effects of drought may adversely affect the performance of systemic insecticides and also lead to increased risk of insect pests developing behavioral insecticide resistance. We hypothesize that more pronounced drought will decrease uptake and increase the magnitude of nonuniform translocation of systemic insecticides within treated crop plants, and that may have two concurrent consequences: 1) reduced pesticide performance, and 2) increased likelihood of insect pests evolving behavioral insecticide resistance. Under this scenario, pests that can sense and avoid acquisition of lethal dosages of systemic insecticides within crop plants will have a selective advantage. This may lead to selection for insect behavioral avoidance, so that insects predominantly feed and oviposit on portions of crop plants with low concentration of systemic insecticide. Limited research has been published on the effect of environmental variables, including drought, on pesticide performance, but we present and discuss studies that support the hypothesis described above. In addition, we wish to highlight the importance of studying the many ways environmental factors can affect, directly and indirectly, both the performance of insecticides and the risk of target insect pests developing resistance. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America.

  12. Diverticular disease is associated with increased risk of subsequent arterial and venous thromboembolic events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strate, Lisa L; Erichsen, Rune; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet; Pedersen, Lars; Baron, John A; Sørensen, Henrik Toft

    2014-10-01

    Diverticular disease and cardiovascular disease share several risk factors. Inflammation associated with diverticular disease could predispose to cardiovascular disease. We assessed the association between a diagnosis of diverticular disease and subsequent arterial and venous thromboembolic events, adjusting for related comorbidities to explore a possible causal relationship. We identified 77,065 incident cases of diverticular disease from 1980-2011 from Danish nationwide medical registries; these were matched for age and sex with 302,572 population comparison cohort members. Individuals with a history of cardiovascular disease were excluded. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to compute incidence rate ratios, comparing the incidence of acute myocardial infarction, stroke, venous thromboembolism, and subarachnoid hemorrhage in patients with diverticular disease with those of the population cohort members, adjusting for age, sex, obesity, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, connective tissue disease, renal disease, and treatments and medications. The adjusted incidence rate ratios for patients with diverticular disease, compared with population cohort members, were 1.11 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07-1.14) for acute myocardial infarction, 1.11 (95% CI, 1.08-1.15) for overall stroke, 1.36 (95% CI, 1.30-1.43) for overall venous thromboembolism, and 1.27 (95% CI, 1.09-1.48) for subarachnoid hemorrhage. The relative risk of each event remained increased after we adjusted for changes in aspirin use or for endoscopy or colorectal surgery after the diagnosis of diverticular disease. These findings also held after excluding the first year of follow-up and limiting the analysis to patients with diverticulitis. On the basis of an analysis of Danish medical registries, a diagnosis of diverticular disease is associated with a modest increase in risk of arterial and venous thromboembolic events after adjustment for related disorders

  13. Increased fracture risk assessed by fracture risk assessment tool in Greek patients with Crohn's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terzoudis, Sotirios; Zavos, Christos; Damilakis, John; Neratzoulakis, John; Dimitriadi, Daphne Anna; Roussomoustakaki, Maria; Kouroumalis, Elias A; Koutroubakis, Ioannis E

    2013-01-01

    The World Health Organization has recently developed the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) based on clinical risk factors and bone mineral density (BMD) for evaluation of the 10-year probability of a hip or a major osteoporotic fracture. The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of the FRAX tool in Greek patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). FRAX scores were applied to 134 IBD patients [68 Crohn's disease (CD); 66 ulcerative colitis (UC)] who underwent dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scans at the femoral neck and lumbar spine during the period 2007-2012. Calculation of the FRAX scores, with or without BMD, was made through a web-based probability model used to compute individual fracture probabilities according to specific clinical risk factors. The median 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture for IBD patients based on clinical data was 7.1%, and including the BMD was 6.2%. A significant overestimation with the first method was found (P = 0.01). Both scores with and without BMD were significantly higher in CD patients compared with UC patients (P = 0.02 and P = 0.005, respectively). The median 10-year probability of hip fracture based on clinical data was 0.8%, and including the BMD was 0.9%. The score with use of BMD was significantly higher in CD compared with UC patients (P = 0.04). CD patients have significantly higher FRAX scores and possibly fracture risk compared with UC patients. The clinical FRAX score alone seems to overestimate the risk of osteoporotic fracture in Greek IBD patients.

  14. Climate change, air pollution and extreme events leading to increasing prevalence of allergic respiratory diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Amato, Gennaro; Baena-Cagnani, Carlos E; Cecchi, Lorenzo; Annesi-Maesano, Isabella; Nunes, Carlos; Ansotegui, Ignacio; D'Amato, Maria; Liccardi, Gennaro; Sofia, Matteo; Canonica, Walter G

    2013-02-11

    The prevalence of asthma and allergic diseases has increased dramatically during the past few decades not only in industrialized countries. Urban air pollution from motor vehicles has been indicated as one of the major risk factors responsible for this increase.Although genetic factors are important in the development of asthma and allergic diseases, the rising trend can be explained only in changes occurred in the environment. Despite some differences in the air pollution profile and decreasing trends of some key air pollutants, air quality is an important concern for public health in the cities throughout the world.Due to climate change, air pollution patterns are changing in several urbanized areas of the world, with a significant effect on respiratory health.The observational evidence indicates that recent regional changes in climate, particularly temperature increases, have already affected a diverse set of physical and biological systems in many parts of the world. Associations between thunderstorms and asthma morbidity in pollinosis subjects have been also identified in multiple locations around the world.Allergens patterns are also changing in response to climate change and air pollution can modify the allergenic potential of pollens especially in presence of specific weather conditions.The underlying mechanisms of all these interactions are not well known yet. The consequences on health vary from decreases in lung function to allergic diseases, new onset of diseases, and exacerbation of chronic respiratory diseases.Factor clouding the issue is that laboratory evaluations do not reflect what happens during natural exposition, when atmospheric pollution mixtures in polluted cities are inhaled. In addition, it is important to recall that an individual's response to pollution exposure depends on the source and components of air pollution, as well as meteorological conditions. Indeed, some air pollution-related incidents with asthma aggravation do not depend

  15. Fuel poverty increases risk of mould contamination, regardless of adult risk perception & ventilation in social housing properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharpe, Richard A; Thornton, Christopher R; Nikolaou, Vasilis; Osborne, Nicholas J

    2015-06-01

    Fuel poverty affects 2.4 million UK homes leading to poor hygrothermal conditions and risk of mould and house dust mite contaminations, which in turn increases risk of asthma exacerbation. For the first time we assess how fuel poverty, occupants' risk perception and use of mechanical ventilation mediate the risk of mould contamination in social housing. Postal questionnaires were sent to 3867 social housing properties to collect adult risk perception, and demographic and environmental information on occupants. Participant details were linked to data pertaining to the individual properties. Multiple logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios and confidence intervals while allowing for clustering of individuals coming from the same housing estate. We used Structured Equation Modelling and Goodness of Fit analysis in mediation analyses to examine the role of fuel poverty, risk perception, use of ventilation and energy efficiency. Eighteen percent of our target social housing populations (671 households) were included into our study. High risk perception (score of 8-10) was associated with reduced risk of mould contamination in the bedrooms of children (OR 0.5 95% CI; 0.3-0.9) and adults (OR 0.4 95% CI; 0.3-0.7). High risk perception of living with inadequate heating and ventilation reduced the risk of mould contamination (OR 0.5 95% CI; 0.3-0.8 and OR 0.5 95% CI; 0.3-0.7, respectively). Participants living with inadequate heating and not heating due to the cost of fuel had an increased risk of mould contamination (OR 3.4 95% CI; 2.0-5.8 and OR 2.2 95% CI; 1.5-3.2, respectively). Increased risk perception and use of extractor fans did not mediate the association between fuel poverty behaviours and increased risk of mould contamination. Fuel poverty behaviours increased the risk of mould contamination, which corresponds with existing literature. For the first time we used mediation analysis to assess how this association maybe modified by occupant behaviours

  16. Increased risk of eczema but reduced risk of early wheezy disorder from exclusive breast-feeding in high-risk infants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giwercman, Charlotte; Halkjaer, Liselotte B; Jensen, Signe Marie

    2010-01-01

    Breast-feeding is recommended for the prevention of eczema, asthma, and allergy, particularly in high-risk families, but recent studies have raised concern that this may not protect children and may even increase the risk. However, disease risk, disease manifestation, lifestyle, and the choice...... to breast-feed are interrelated, and therefore, analyzing true causal effects presents a number of methodologic challenges....

  17. Factors increasing the risk of inactivity among administrative, technical, and manual workers in Warszawa public institutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elżbieta Biernat

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The research aims to assess the level of physical activity among administrative, technical, and manual workers employed in Warszawa public institutions and to analyze the factors that increase the risk of failing to meet World Health Organization (WHO recommendations. Material and Methods: The study comprised 373 employees of randomly selected institutions. A short version of International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ was applied. The correlation between the mean values of duration, days, MET-min/week of efforts, gender, and type of work was analyzed using the Tukey’s honest significant difference (HSD test, while the correlation between the level of physical activity and the socio-demographic characteristics was assessed with the Chi2 test. The strength of the relationship between socio-demographic characteristics and fulfilment of WHO standards was expressed by the odds ratio (OR and 95% confidence interval (95% CI. The significance level was p = 0.05. Results: High levels of physical activity were declared by 41.8% of the manual workers, 14.7% of the administration staff, and 7.3% of the technicians; 19%, 31.5% and 54.5%, respectively, reported low levels of physical activity. Factors determining the fulfilment of the WHO recommendations include: the nature of work (p = 0.003, education (p = 0.004, and income (p = 0.003. The risk of being inactive nearly doubles in the case of administration staff (31.5% and increases more than 4 times in the case of technicians (54.5%. Respondents with secondary school education (31.6% are exposed to a 3-fold higher risk of inactivity, while in respondents with higher education (37.2%, the level of the risk is 4-fold higher. Compared to those in the highest income group (23.4%, people who earn less (34.1% are inactive almost twice as often. Conclusions: Urgent intervention is necessary in all studied groups: increased energy expenditure for recreation and locomotion, educational offers

  18. Car mass and fatality risk: has the relationship changed?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, L; Frick, M C

    1994-01-01

    The finding that the relative safety disadvantage of small compared with large cars is less for post-1980 cars than for pre-1980 cars has stimulated speculation that increasing fuel economy standards would increase fatalities less than previously expected. Fatal crashes between two cars of similar model year were examined to see whether this would be the case. Driver fatality risk in relation to car mass was examined with Fatal Accident Reporting System data for crashes between two cars of a specific model year. The relative risk for driver fatality in the lighter car compared with the other driver's risk in a car 50% heavier was as follows: for 1966 through 1979 cars, the risk was between 3.7 and 5.1; for 1984 cars, 2.6; and for 1990 cars, 4.1. The results suggest that the lesser mass effect observed for mid-1980s cars occurred because improved crashworthiness features appeared in small cars earlier than in large cars. As all cars are redesigned, the relationship between risk and mass can be expected to approach that observed earlier in pre-1980 cars. If so, future fatality increases from fuel economy increases will be greater than estimated on the basis of mid-1980 data.

  19. Red meat consumption and risk of cardiovascular diseases-is increased iron load a possible link?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintana Pacheco, Daniel A; Sookthai, Disorn; Wittenbecher, Clemens; Graf, Mirja E; Schübel, Ruth; Johnson, Theron; Katzke, Verena; Jakszyn, Paula; Kaaks, Rudolf; Kühn, Tilman

    2018-01-01

    High iron load and red meat consumption could increase the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). As red meat is the main source of heme iron, which is in turn a major determinant of increased iron load, adverse cardiometabolic effects of meat consumption could be mediated by increased iron load. The object of the study was to assess whether associations between red meat consumption and CVD risk are mediated by iron load in a population-based human study. We evaluated relations between red meat consumption, iron load (plasma ferritin), and risk of CVD in the prospective EPIC-Heidelberg Study using a case-cohort sample including a random subcohort (n = 2738) and incident cases of myocardial infarction (MI, n = 555), stroke (n = 513), and CVD mortality (n = 381). Following a 4-step mediation analysis, associations between red meat consumption and iron load, red meat consumption and CVD risk, and iron load and CVD risk were assessed by multivariable regression models before finally testing to which degree associations between red meat consumption and CVD risk were attenuated by adjustment for iron status. Red meat consumption was significantly positively associated with ferritin concentrations and MI risk [HR per 50 g daily intake: 1.18 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.33)], but no significant associations with stroke risk and CVD mortality were observed. While direct associations between ferritin concentrations and MI risk as well as CVD mortality were significant in age- and sex-adjusted Cox regression models, these associations were substantially attenuated and no longer significant after multivariable adjustment for classical CVD risk factors. Strikingly, ferritin concentrations were positively associated with a majority of classical CVD risk factors (age, male sex, alcohol intake, obesity, inflammation, and lower education). Increased ferritin concentrations may be a marker of an overall unfavorable risk factor profile rather than a mediator of greater CVD risk due to meat

  20. Environmental Changes Can Produce Shifts in Chagas Disease Infection Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan M. Cordovez

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An epidemiological network contains all the organisms involved (types in the transmission of a parasite. The nodes of the network represent reservoirs, hosts, and vectors, while the links between the nodes represent the strength and direction of parasite movement. Networks that contain humans are of special interest because they are of concern to public health authorities. Under these circumstances, it is possible, in principle, to identify cycles (closed paths in the network that include humans and select the ones that carry the maximum probability of human infection. The basic reproduction number R 0 in such a network gives the average number of new infections of any type after the introduction of one individual infected by any type. To obtain R 0 for complex networks, one can use the next-generation matrix (NGM approach. Every entry in NGM will average the contribution of each link that connects two types. To tease the contribution of every cycle apart, we define the virulence as the geometric mean of the NGM entries corresponding to the links therein. This approach allows for the quantification of specific cycles of interest while it also makes the computation of the sensitivity and elasticity of the parameters easier. In this work, we compute the virulence for the transmission dynamics of Chagas disease for a typical rural area in Colombia incorporating the effect of environmental changes on the vector population size. We concluded that the highest contribution to human infection comes from humans themselves, which is a surprising and interesting result. In addition, sensitivity analysis revealed that increasing vector population size increases the risk of human infection.

  1. Humans have already increased the risk of major disruption to Pacific rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power, Scott; Delage, Francois; Chung, Christine; Ye, Harvey; Murphy, Brad

    2017-04-01

    Intermittent disruptions to rainfall patterns and intensity over the Pacific Ocean lasting up to approximately one year have major impacts on severe weather, agricultural production, ecosystems, and disease within the Pacific, and in many countries beyond. These disruptions are primarily driven by the El Niño/La Niña cycle, which is a naturally occurring phenomenon centered in the tropical Pacific. Recent research concluded that global warming under scenarios with further large increases in global greenhouse gas emissions will increase the frequency of disruptions to Pacific rainfall over the 21st century. Fortunately governments from around the world recently agreed to markedly reduce emissions over coming decades. But will these cuts be sufficient to prevent a human-forced increase in the risk of major disruption? And has the risk (i.e., likelihood) of major disruption driven by year-to-year rainfall variability already increased relative to pre-industrial times? These issues are addressed here (Power et al., Nature Communications, in press). We examined disruption in CMIP5 models under climatic conditions corresponding to the pre-industrial era, the historical period and the remainder of the 21st century under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. RCP2.6 results in global warming in the late 21st century that is likely to be in the range of approximately 0.9-2.3°C (relative to the latter half of the 19th century). The equivalent figures for RCP8.5 are 3.2-5.4°C (IPCC 2014). We use a simple measure of disruption or volatility: the time evolving RMS difference in seasonal rainfall over the Pacific relative to a changing climatological value of seasonal rainfall. The CMIP5 models, the observations and an SST-forced AGCM all indicate that while both El Nino and La Nina can cause major disruptions, the largest disruptions occur during El Nino years. We also show that there is a 26% increase in the frequency of major disruptions in the models by the early

  2. An assessment of change in risk perception and optimistic bias for hurricanes among Gulf Coast residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trumbo, Craig; Meyer, Michelle A; Marlatt, Holly; Peek, Lori; Morrissey, Bridget

    2014-06-01

    This study focuses on levels of concern for hurricanes among individuals living along the Gulf Coast during the quiescent two-year period following the exceptionally destructive 2005 hurricane season. A small study of risk perception and optimistic bias was conducted immediately following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Two years later, a follow-up was done in which respondents were recontacted. This provided an opportunity to examine changes, and potential causal ordering, in risk perception and optimistic bias. The analysis uses 201 panel respondents who were matched across the two mail surveys. Measures included hurricane risk perception, optimistic bias for hurricane evacuation, past hurricane experience, and a small set of demographic variables (age, sex, income, and education). Paired t-tests were used to compare scores across time. Hurricane risk perception declined and optimistic bias increased. Cross-lagged correlations were used to test the potential causal ordering between risk perception and optimistic bias, with a weak effect suggesting the former affects the latter. Additional cross-lagged analysis using structural equation modeling was used to look more closely at the components of optimistic bias (risk to self vs. risk to others). A significant and stronger potentially causal effect from risk perception to optimistic bias was found. Analysis of the experience and demographic variables' effects on risk perception and optimistic bias, and their change, provided mixed results. The lessening of risk perception and increase in optimistic bias over the period of quiescence suggest that risk communicators and emergency managers should direct attention toward reversing these trends to increase disaster preparedness. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Reducing risks and increasing safety in everyday life: the role of the public

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enander, A.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: in social science risk research more attention has been paid to examining how people in general perceive risks than to how they perceive possible measures to reduce risks and to increase their own safety. The latter area is, however, becoming increasingly important to understand, particularly in the light of current emphasis on individual responsibility in risk prevention and emergency preparedness. For example, in Sweden a major effort to increase safety awareness among the general public and to increase knowledge and skills in a number of safety-related areas is at present being planned. This effort is being undertaken as a cooperative effort between different authorities and institutions and is coordinated by the Swedish Rescue Services Agency. The intentions behind this and similar programmes raise a number of questions concerning how people view risks and safety measures in their own immediate environment. Knowledge of the factors affecting willingness to take precautions is important in the design of communication and information. The factors which are of significance may be risk-related and concern perceptions of personal risk, but may also be related to attitudes an beliefs concerning different precautionary measures, to perception of social norms and conventions as well as to personal experiences and values. This paper presents some data concerning views and actions among lay groups in relation to reducing risks and increasing safety. Factors affecting these views are discussed in the light of previous research and of empirical data from some recent studies. (author)

  4. Increasing Communities Capacity to Effectively Address Climate Change Through Education, Civic Engagement and Workforce Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niepold, F., III; Ledley, T. S.; Stanton, C.; Fraser, J.; Scowcroft, G. A.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the causes, effects, risks, and developing the social will and skills for responses to global change is a major challenge of the 21st century that requires coordinated contributions from the sciences, social sciences, humanities, arts, and beyond. There have been many effective efforts to implement climate change education, civic engagement and related workforce development programs focused on a multitude of audiences, topics and in multiple regions. This talk will focus on how comprehensive educational efforts across our communities are needed to support cities and their primary industries as they prepare for, and embrace, a low-carbon economy and develop the related workforce.While challenges still exist in identifying and coordinating all stakeholders, managing and leveraging resources, and resourcing and scaling effective programs to increase impact and reach, climate and energy literacy leaders have developed initiatives with broad input to identify the understandings and structures for climate literacy collective impact and to develop regional/metropolitan strategy that focuses its collective impact efforts on local climate issues, impacts and opportunities. This Climate Literacy initiative envisions education as a central strategy for community's civic actions in the coming decades by key leaders who have the potential to foster the effective and innovative strategies that will enable their communities to seize opportunity and prosperity in a post-carbon and resilient future. This talk discusses the advances and collaborations in the Climate Change Education community over the last decade by U.S. federal and non-profit organization that have been made possible through the partnerships of the Climate Literacy & Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN), U.S. National Science Foundation funded Climate Change Education Partnership (CCEP) Alliance, and the Tri-Agency Climate Change Education Collaborative.

  5. Does employee resistance during a robbery increase the risk of customer injury?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yau, Rebecca K; Casteel, Carri; Nocera, Maryalice; Bishop, Stephanie F; Peek-Asa, Corinne

    2015-04-01

    Retail business robberies can lead to employee and customer injury. Previous work demonstrates that employee resistance increases employee injury risk; limited research has investigated customer injuries. This study examines associations between employee resistance against perpetrators and the risk of customer injury. Retail and service robbery reports were obtained from a metropolitan police department. Generalized estimating equations estimated risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Customers were injured in 75 out of 697 robberies. Employees resisted the perpetrator in 32 out of 697 robberies. Customers had higher injury risk when employees resisted the perpetrator, compared with robberies where employees did not resist (adjusted risk ratio [95% CI], 2.6 [1.5 to 4.5]). Employee resistance against a perpetrator during a robbery increased customer injury risk. Businesses can train employees to not resist during a robbery, providing benefits for both customers and the business itself.

  6. On the increased risk of developing late-onset epilepsy for patients with major affective disorder

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nilsson, Flemming Mørkeberg; Kessing, Lars Vedel; Bolwig, Tom Gert

    2003-01-01

    for the control groups. However, the increased risk seemed to be due to the effect of comorbid alcohol or drug abuse and not to the effect of the affective illness itself. LIMITATIONS: The results only apply to hospitalised patients. Diagnoses are not validated for research purposes. CONCLUSION: Patients...... with a diagnosis of affective disorder have an increased risk of developing epilepsy in later life. In patients with affective disorder, comorbid alcoholism/drug abuse seriously increased the risk of a subsequent diagnosis of epilepsy....

  7. Impact of financial incentives on behavior change program participation and risk reduction in worksite health promotion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gingerich, Stefan B; Anderson, David R; Koland, Heidi

    2012-01-01

    To examine the impact of financial incentives on behavior change program registration, completion, and risk improvement rates. Retrospective cohort study conducted to observe the relationship between financial incentives and behavior change program registration, completion, and risk improvement rates. Large public- or private-sector employers. Twenty-four organizations (n = 511,060 eligible employees) that offered comprehensive worksite health promotion (WHP) programs. Financial incentives offered for completion of a behavior change program as part of a WHP program. Behavior change program registration and completion data were obtained from standard reports. Company-level risk change was calculated from the average per-person number of risks on baseline and follow-up health risk assessments. Incentive design was determined from questionnaires completed by WHP program managers. Average registration rates, program completion rates, and risk improvement rates were compared using t-tests for companies that did versus did not offer incentives. Comparisons were also made between companies with incentives of less than $100 and those with incentives of $100 or more. Correlations between incentive value and outcome variables were assessed using Pearson correlations. Companies that offered incentives had significantly higher health coaching completion rates than companies not offering an incentive (82.9% vs. 76.4%, respectively, p = .017) but there was no significant association with registration (p = .384) or risk improvement rates (p = .242). Incentive values were not significantly associated with risk improvement rates (p = .240). Offering incentives for completing behavior change programs may increase completion rates, but increased health improvement does not necessarily follow.

  8. Cartograms Facilitate Communication of Climate Change Risks and Responsibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Döll, Petra

    2017-12-01

    Communication of climate change (CC) risks is challenging, in particular if global-scale spatially resolved quantitative information is to be conveyed. Typically, visualization of CC risks, which arise from the combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, is confined to showing only the hazards in the form of global thematic maps. This paper explores the potential of contiguous value-by-area cartograms, that is, distorted density-equalizing maps, for improving communication of CC risks and the countries' differentiated responsibilities for CC. Two global-scale cartogram sets visualize, as an example, groundwater-related CC risks in 0.5° grid cells, another one the correlation of (cumulative) fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions with the countries' population and gross domestic product. Viewers of the latter set visually recognize the lack of global equity and that the countries' wealth has been built on harmful emissions. I recommend that CC risks are communicated by bivariate gridded cartograms showing the hazard in color and population, or a combination of population and a vulnerability indicator, by distortion of grid cells. Gridded cartograms are also appropriate for visualizing the availability of natural resources to humans. For communicating complex information, sets of cartograms should be carefully designed instead of presenting single cartograms. Inclusion of a conventionally distorted map enhances the viewers' capability to take up the information represented by distortion. Empirical studies about the capability of global cartograms to convey complex information and to trigger moral emotions should be conducted, with a special focus on risk communication.

  9. Traditional marijuana, high-potency cannabis and synthetic cannabinoids:increasing risk for psychosis

    OpenAIRE

    Murray, Robin M.; Quigley, Harriet; Quattrone, Diego; Englund, Amir; Di Forti, Marta

    2016-01-01

    Epidemiological evidence demonstrates that cannabis use is associated with an increased risk of psychotic outcomes, and confirms a dose-response relationship between the level of use and the risk of later psychosis. High-potency cannabis and synthetic cannabinoids carry the greatest risk. Experimental administration of tetrahydrocannabinol, the active ingredient of cannabis, induces transient psychosis in normal subjects, but this effect can be ameliorated by co-administration of cannabidiol....

  10. Increasing risk of psychiatric morbidity after childhood onset type 1 diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dybdal, Daniel; Tolstrup, Janne S; Sildorf, Stine M

    2017-01-01

    of psychiatric disorders as well as the effects of age at onset and duration of type 1 diabetes on the risk of subsequently developing psychiatric morbidities. RESULTS: An increased risk of being diagnosed with mood disorders and anxiety, dissociative, eating, stress-related and somatoform disorders was observed......- or outpatient with type 1 diabetes before the age of 18, and afterwards diagnosed with a psychiatric disorder (n = 5084). Control individuals were matched according to sex and date of birth (n = 35,588). The Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess associations between type 1 diabetes and the incidence...... in both sexes in the years following type 1 diabetes onset, with the highest risk observed five years or more after onset (HR 1.55 [95% CI 1.38, 1.74]). The risk of psychoactive substance-misuse disorders increased significantly only in boys, and the risk of personality disorders increased only in girls...

  11. Increased risk of acute arterial events in young patients and severely active IBD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirchgesner, Julien; Beaugerie, Laurent; Carrat, Fabrice

    2017-01-01

    was assessed by Cox regression adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS: Among 210 162 individuals with IBD (Crohn's disease (CD), n=97 708; UC, n=112 454), 5554 incident acute arterial events were identified. Both patients with CD and UC had a statistically significant overall increased......, all patients aged 15 years or older and diagnosed with IBD were identified and followed up until 31 December 2013. The rates of incident acute arterial events were calculated and the impact of time with active disease (period around hospitalisation for IBD flare or IBD-related surgery) on the risk...... associated with an increased risk of acute arterial events in both CD and UC (HR 1.74; 95 CI 1.44 to 2.09 and 1.87; 95% CI 1.58 to 2.22, respectively). CONCLUSION: Patients with IBD are at increased risk of acute arterial events, with the highest risk in young patients. Disease activity may also have...

  12. Increased risk associated with pulmonary artery catheterization in the medical intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Steve G; Afessa, Bekele; Decker, Paul A; Schroeder, Darrell R; Offord, Kenneth P; Scott, John P

    2003-09-01

    To determine whether the frequency of use of a pulmonary artery catheter (PAC) was declining over a 5-year period in a medical intensive care unit (ICU), and to assess whether mortality was higher in patients in whom a PAC was used on the day of ICU admission compared with matched controls. Observational, retrospective, matched-set study using prospectively collected Acute Pysiology, Age and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III data during a 5-year period, from 1995 to 2000, at a 15-bed medical ICU in an academic referral center. A total of 360 patients, 202 men and 158 women, in whom a PAC was placed on the first ICU day, were compared with 690 controls without a PAC, matched by primary diagnosis group and APACHE III-predicted hospital mortality. A PAC was used during the first day in 7.7% of ICU admissions (yearly range, 5.7% to 9.1%) and did not change significantly during the study period. A total of 187 study patients (27.0%) without a PAC and 132 (36.7%) with a PAC died during their hospital stay. PAC use was a significant risk factor for hospital death from a univariate analysis (odds ratio = 1.5; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.1-2.1; P =.006). From multivariate analysis, the use of a pulmonary artery catheter was a significant risk factor for hospital death after adjusting for age, date of ICU admission, and predicted hospital mortality (odds ratio = 1.5; 95% CI; 1.1-2.0; P =.016). PAC use on the day of admission to a medical ICU was associated with an increased risk for hospital death.

  13. Vulnerable Populations Perceive Their Health as at Risk from Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akerlof, Karen L; Delamater, Paul L; Boules, Caroline R; Upperman, Crystal R; Mitchell, Clifford S

    2015-12-04

    Climate change is already taking a toll on human health, a toll that is likely to increase in coming decades. The relationship between risk perceptions and vulnerability to climate change's health threats has received little attention, even though an understanding of the dynamics of adaptation among particularly susceptible populations is becoming increasingly important. We demonstrate that some people whose health will suffer the greatest harms from climate change-due to social vulnerability, health susceptibility, and exposure to hazards-already feel they are at risk. In a 2013 survey we measured Maryland residents' climate beliefs, health risk perceptions, and household social vulnerability characteristics, including medical conditions (n = 2126). We paired survey responses with secondary data sources for residence in a floodplain and/or urban heat island to predict perceptions of personal and household climate health risk. General health risk perceptions, political ideology, and climate beliefs are the strongest predictors. Yet, people in households with the following characteristics also see themselves at higher risk: members with one or more medical conditions or disabilities; low income; racial/ethnic minorities; and residence in a floodplain. In light of these results, climate health communication among vulnerable populations should emphasize protective actions instead of risk messages.

  14. Increased risk of inflammatory bowel disease associated with oral contraceptive use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyko, E J; Theis, M K; Vaughan, T L; Nicol-Blades, B

    1994-08-01

    Research on inflammatory bowel disease risk among oral contraceptive users has reached conflicting conclusions. This population-based case-control study evaluated the effects of oral contraceptive use on ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease risk. Cases were women enrollees, aged 15-68 years, of Group Health Cooperative of Puget Sound (a prepaid health plan based in western Washington State) who had ulcerative colitis (n = 211) or Crohn's disease (n = 91). Age-matched controls were randomly selected from the health plan enrollment file. An in-person interview obtained information about lifetime contraceptive use. Conditional logistic regression analysis was used to estimate relative risks and 95% confidence intervals for disease. Women who reported oral contraceptive use within 6 months before disease onset were at increased risk for both diseases compared with never users (relative risk (RR) of ulcerative colitis = 2.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-3.3; RR of Crohn's disease = 2.6, 95% CI 1.2-5.5). Women who had used oral contraceptives for more than 6 years had the highest risk of Crohn's disease (RR = 5.1, 95% CI 1.8-14.3). In contrast, increasing duration of use was not associated with increased risk of ulcerative colitis. Adjustment for race, smoking, income, or pregnancy history did not substantially alter these results. Higher ulcerative colitis risk tended to occur among users of high estrogen dose oral contraceptives, while Crohn's disease risk was similar regardless of estrogen potency.

  15. Changing the system by changing the workforce: employing consumers to increase access, cultural diversity, and engagement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenz-Gross, Melodie; Irsfeld, Toni DuBrino; Twomey, Tammy; Perez, Ana; Thompson, Judith; Wally, Martha; Colleton, Barbara; Kroell, Christine; McKeown, Steven K; Metz, Peter

    2012-06-01

    Services to families have traditionally been delivered in a medical model. This presents challenges including workforce shortages, lack of cultural diversity, lack of training in strength-based work, and difficulty in successfully engaging and retaining families in the therapy process. The system of care (SOC) effort has worked to establish formal roles for caregivers in SOC to improve services. This paper provides an example of one community's efforts to change the SOC by expanding the roles available to caregivers in creating systems change. It describes the model developed by Communities of Care (CoC), a SOC in Central Massachusetts, and its evolution over a 10 year period. First person accounts by system partners, caregivers hired into professional roles as well as a family receiving services, demonstrate how hiring caregivers at all levels can change systems and change lives, not only for those being served but for the caregiver/professionals doing the work. It also demonstrates, however, that change at the system level is incremental, takes time, and can be fleeting unless an ongoing effort is made to support and sustain those changes.

  16. Do parent-adolescent discrepancies in family functioning increase the risk of Hispanic adolescent HIV risk behaviors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordova, David; Huang, Shi; Lally, Meghan; Estrada, Yannine; Prado, Guillermo

    2014-06-01

    In the family-based prevention science literature, family functioning, defined as positive parenting, parental involvement, family cohesion, family communication, parental monitoring of peers, and parent-adolescent communication, has been shown to ameliorate HIV risk behaviors in Hispanic youth. However, the majority of studies have relied solely on parent or adolescent reports and we know very little about parent-adolescent family functioning discrepancies. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine whether and to what extent parent-adolescent discrepancies in family functioning increased the risk of HIV risk behaviors, including substance use and sexual risk behaviors, and whether these associations vary as a function of acculturation and youth gender. A total of 746 Hispanic 8th grade youth and their primary caregivers were included in the study. Structural equation modeling findings indicate that parent-adolescent family functioning discrepancies are associated with an increased risk of Hispanic adolescent HIV risk behaviors, including lifetime and past 90-day alcohol and illicit drug use, and early sex initiation. In addition, study findings indicate that results vary by acculturation and youth gender. Findings are discussed in the context of existing family-based research and practice in preventing and reducing HIV risk behaviors among Hispanic youth and their families. © 2014 FPI, Inc.

  17. Daytime increase in caloric intake without change in total 24-h caloric intake can increase adiposity but not total bodyweight in rats with inverted feeding pattern.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocha, Lanni Sarmento da; de Matos, Rhowena Jane Barbosa; de Souza, Julliet Araújo; Costa, Ana Carolina Oliveira; Lopes de Souza, Sandra; Muniz, Gisélia de Santana; Nascimento, Elizabeth do

    2017-09-01

    The goal of this study was to evaluate the effect of the food availability period on body weight, self-selection of macronutrients, adiposity, lipoprotein, and serum glucose profiles without changing energy intake. Young male rats were divided into 2 groups according to the availability of food during the light and dark phases of the cycle, forming 2 groups: control group (CG) and group with inverted feeding pattern (IFPG). Before inversion of food availability on the 80th day, circadian food intake was measured every 4 h over 24 h during 3 days. The glycemic curve, an oral test for glucose tolerance, and self-selection of macronutrients were evaluated. Blood samples were collected for analysis of fasting glucose, triglycerides, and total cholesterol fractions. The IFPG showed an increase in fasting glucose in the dark phase of the cycle, changes in the glycemic curve, and oral glucose tolerance test. It also showed increased abdominal and liver fat and distinct choice of macronutrients compared with the CG. A change in the availability of food according to the phase of the circadian cycle produces changes in glucose and feeding circadian rhythm culminating in increased abdominal and hepatic fat. These effects can increase the risk of metabolic disorders and installation of chronic diseases.

  18. Polymorphisms Near TBX5 and GDF7 Are Associated With Increased Risk for Barrett's Esophagus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Palles, Claire; Chegwidden, Laura; Li, Xinzhong; Findlay, John M.; Farnham, Garry; Giner, Francesc Castro; Peppelenbosch, Maikel P.; Kovac, Michal; Adams, Claire L.; Prenen, Hans; Briggs, Sarah; Harrison, Rebecca; Sanders, Scott; MacDonald, David; Haigh, Chris; Tucker, Art; Love, Sharon; Nanji, Manoj; Decaestecker, John; Ferry, David; Rathbone, Barrie; Hapeshi, Julie; Barr, Hugh; Moayyedi, Paul; Watson, Peter; Zietek, Barbara; Maroo, Neera; Gay, Laura; Underwood, Tim; Boulter, Lisa; McMurtry, Hugh; Monk, David; Patel, Praful; Ragunath, Krish; Al Dulaimi, David; Murray, Iain; Koss, Konrad; Veitch, Andrew; Trudgill, Nigel; Nwokolo, Chuka; Rembacken, Bjorn; Atherfold, Paul; Green, Elaine; Ang, Yeng; Kuipers, Ernst J.; Chow, Wu; Paterson, Stuart; Kadri, Sudarshan; Beales, Ian; Grimley, Charles; Mullins, Paul; Beckett, Conrad; Farrant, Mark; Dixon, Andrew; Kelly, Sean; Johnson, Matthew; Wajed, Shahjehan; Dhar, Anjan; Sawyer, Elinor; Roylance, Rebecca; Onstad, Lynn; Gammon, Marilie D.; Corley, Douglas A.; Shaheen, Nicholas J.; Bird, Nigel C.; Hardie, Laura J.; Reid, Brian J.; Ye, Weimin; Liu, Geoffrey; Romero, Yvonne; Bernstein, Leslie; Wu, Anna H.; Casson, Alan G.; Fitzgerald, Rebecca; Whiteman, David C.; Risch, Harvey A.; Levine, David M.; Vaughan, Tom L.; Verhaar, Auke P.; van den Brande, Jan; Toxopeus, Eelke L.; Spaander, Manon C.; Wijnhoven, Bas P. L.; van der Laan, Luc J. W.; Krishnadath, Kausilia; Wijmenga, Cisca; Trynka, Gosia; McManus, Ross; Reynolds, John V.; O'Sullivan, Jacintha; MacMathuna, Padraic; McGarrigle, Sarah A.; Kelleher, Dermot; Vermeire, Severine; Cleynen, Isabelle; Bisschops, Raf; Tomlinson, Ian; Jankowski, Janusz

    BACKGROUND & AIMS: Barrett's esophagus (BE) increases the risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). We found the risk to be BE has been associated with single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on chromosome 6p21 (within the HLA region) and on 16q23, where the closest protein-coding gene is FOXF1.

  19. Polymorphisms near TBX5 and GDF7 are associated with increased risk for Barrett's esophagus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Palles (Claire); L. Chegwidden (Laura); X. Li (Xinzhong); J.M. Findlay (John M.); G. Farnham (Garry); F. Castro Giner (Francesc); M.P. Peppelenbosch (Maikel); M. Kovac (Michal); C.L. Adams (Claire); H. Prenen (Hans); S. Briggs (Sarah); R. Harrison (Rebecca); S. Sanders (Scott); D. Macdonald (David); K. Haigh (Katharina); A.T. Tucker (Art); S. Love (Sharon); M. Nanji (Manoj); J. Decaestecker (John); D.R. Ferry (David); B. Rathbone (Barrie); J. Hapeshi (Julie); H. Barr (Hugh); P. Moayyedi (Paul); P. Watson (Peter); B. Zietek (Barbara); N. Maroo (Neera); L. Gay (Laura); T. Underwood (Tim); L. Boulter (Lisa); H. McMurtry (Hugh); A.B. Monk (Alastair); P. Patel (Poulam); K. Ragunath (Krish); D. Al Dulaimi (David); I. Murray (Iain); C. Koss (Clara); A. Veitch (Andrew); N. Trudgill (Nigel); C. Nwokolo (Chuka); B. Rembacken; P. Atherfold (Paul); E.K. Green (Elaine K); Y. Ang (Yeng); E.J. Kuipers (Ernst); W. Chow (Wu); S. Paterson (Stuart); S. Kadri (Sudarshan); I. Beales (Ian); C. Grimley (Charles); P. Mullins (Paul); C. Beckett (Conrad); M. Farrant (Mark); A. Dixon (Andrew); S. Kelly (Sean); M. Johnson (Matthew); S. Wajed (Shahjehan); A. Dhar (Archana); E.J. Sawyer (Elinor); R. Roylance (Rebecca); L. Onstad (Lynn); M.D. Gammon (Marilie); D.A. Corley (Douglas); N. Shaheen (Nazima); N.C. Bird (Nigel); B.G.S. Hardie (Bruce); B.J. Reid (Brian); W. Ye (Weimin); G. Liu (Geoffrey); Y. Romero (Yvonne); L. Bernstein (Leslie); A.H. Wu (Anna H.); A.G. Casson (Alan); R.C. Fitzgerald (Rebecca); D.C. Whiteman (David C.); H. Risch (Harvey); D.M. Levine (David M.); T.L. Vaughan (Thomas); A.P. Verhaar (Auke); J. Van Den Brande (Jan); E.L.A. Toxopeus (Eelke); M.C.W. Spaander (Manon); B.P.L. Wijnhoven (Bas); L.J.W. van der Laan (Luc); K.K. Krishnadath (Kausilia); C. Wijmenga (Cisca); G. Trynka (Gosia); R. McManus (Ross); J.V. Reynolds (John V.); J. O'Sullivan (Jacintha); P. Macmathuna (Padraic); S.A. McGarrigle (Sarah A.); D. Kelleher (Dermot); S. Vermeire (Séverine); I. Cleynen (Isabelle); R. Bisschops (Raf); I.P. Tomlinson (Ian); J.A. Jankowski (Janusz Antoni)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractBackground & Aims Barrett's esophagus (BE) increases the risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). We found the risk to be BE has been associated with single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on chromosome 6p21 (within the HLA region) and on 16q23, where the closest protein-coding gene is

  20. Polymorphisms near TBX5 and GDF7 are associated with increased risk for Barrett's esophagus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Palles, Claire; Chegwidden, Laura; Li, Xinzhong; Findlay, John M.; Farnham, Garry; Castro Giner, Francesc; Peppelenbosch, Maikel P.; Kovac, Michal; Adams, Claire L.; Prenen, Hans; Briggs, Sarah; Harrison, Rebecca; Sanders, Scott; MacDonald, David; Haigh, Chris; Tucker, Art; Love, Sharon; Nanji, Manoj; Decaestecker, John; Ferry, David; Rathbone, Barrie; Hapeshi, Julie; Barr, Hugh; Moayyedi, Paul; Watson, Peter; Zietek, Barbara; Maroo, Neera; Gay, Laura; Underwood, Tim; Boulter, Lisa; McMurtry, Hugh; Monk, David; Patel, Praful; Ragunath, Krish; Al Dulaimi, David; Murray, Iain; Koss, Konrad; Veitch, Andrew; Trudgill, Nigel; Nwokolo, Chuka; Rembacken, Bjorn; Atherfold, Paul; Green, Elaine; Ang, Yeng; Kuipers, Ernst J.; Chow, Wu; Paterson, Stuart; Kadri, Sudarshan; Beales, Ian; Grimley, Charles; Mullins, Paul; Beckett, Conrad; Farrant, Mark; Dixon, Andrew; Kelly, Sean; Johnson, Matthew; Wajed, Shahjehan; Dhar, Anjan; Sawyer, Elinor; Roylance, Rebecca; Onstad, Lynn; Gammon, Marilie D.; Corley, Douglas A.; Shaheen, Nicholas J.; Bird, Nigel C.; Hardie, Laura J.; Reid, Brian J.; Ye, Weimin; Liu, Geoffrey; Romero, Yvonne; Bernstein, Leslie; Wu, Anna H.; Casson, Alan G.; Fitzgerald, Rebecca; Whiteman, David C.; Risch, Harvey A.; Levine, David M.; Vaughan, Tom L.; Verhaar, Auke P.; van den Brande, Jan; Toxopeus, Eelke L.; Spaander, Manon C.; Wijnhoven, Bas P. L.; van der Laan, Luc J. W.; Krishnadath, Kausilia; Wijmenga, Cisca; Trynka, Gosia; McManus, Ross; Reynolds, John V.; O'Sullivan, Jacintha; MacMathuna, Padraic; McGarrigle, Sarah A.; Kelleher, Dermot; Vermeire, Severine; Cleynen, Isabelle; Bisschops, Raf; Tomlinson, Ian; Jankowski, Janusz

    2015-01-01

    Barrett's esophagus (BE) increases the risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). We found the risk to be BE has been associated with single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on chromosome 6p21 (within the HLA region) and on 16q23, where the closest protein-coding gene is FOXF1. Subsequently, the

  1. Fall-Risk-Increasing Drugs: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis: I. Cardiovascular Drugs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, Max; Seppala, Lotta J.; Daams, Joost G.; van de Glind, Esther M. M.; Masud, Tahir; van der Velde, Nathalie

    2018-01-01

    Use of certain medications is recognized as a major and modifiable risk factor for falls. Although the literature on psychotropic drugs is compelling, the literature on cardiovascular drugs as potential fall-risk-increasing drugs is conflicting. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis is

  2. Is there an increased risk of post-operative surgical site infection ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: There is dilemma as to whether patients infected with the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) requiring implant orthopaedic surgery are at an increased risk for post-operative surgical site infection (SSI). We conducted a systematic review to determine the effect of HIV on the risk of post-operative SSI and ...

  3. Haemophilia A patients are not at increased risk of hepatitis A virus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Haemophilia A patients are not at increased risk of hepatitis A virus infection: An Egyptian experience. AAG Tantawy, EAM Algohary, SMA El-Ghany, SF Elhadary. Abstract. Background: Hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection is endemic in Egypt. Haemophiliacs are at risk of transmission through exposure to blood products.

  4. is there an increased risk of post-operative surgical site infection

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-09-06

    Sep 6, 2012 ... ABSTRACT. Background:There is dilemma as to whether patients infected with the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) requiring implant orthopaedic surgery are at an increased risk for post-operative surgical site infection (SSI). We conducted a systematic review to determine the effect of HIV on the risk ...

  5. Non-exposure parenting increases risk of bullying behavior in junior high school students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Surilena Hasan

    2016-05-01

    Non-exposure parenting was the most relevant risk factor of bullying behavior. Low self-esteem increases the risk of bullying behavior. These findings suggest the need of timely bullying prevention and intervention programs that should have a special focus on families of primary high school students.

  6. A cross-sectoral analysis of climate change risk drivers based on companies' responses to the CDP's climate change information request

    OpenAIRE

    Groth, Markus; Brunsmeier, Annette

    2016-01-01

    Companies are increasingly concerned with current and future climate change risks that have the potential to generate a substantial change in their business operations, revenue and/or expenditure. Therefore, the paper focusses on the companies' perspective and aims to create a higher awareness of companies' risk drivers when it comes to specific challenges of different sectors as well as each company within its sector. Based on companies' responses to the CDP's climate change information requ...

  7. Problems and fall risk determinants of quality of life in older adults with increased risk of falling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Sang-I; Chang, Ku-Chou; Lee, Hsuei-Chen; Yang, Yi-Ching; Tsauo, Jau-Yih

    2015-05-01

    Determine quality of life and its association with fall risk factors in older adults with increased risk of falling. A total of 597 community-dwelling Taiwanese older adults who were screened to have increased risk of falling participated in the present study. The fall risk factors included sociodemographics, physical and psychological function, Timed Up and Go, past fall/medical histories, fear of falling and medications. The Euro QOL EQ-5D was used to measure health-related quality of life. Pain/discomfort was the EQ-5D dimension most frequently reported to be impaired (35%), regardless of the level of fall risk or age groups, followed by mobility (25%). Hierarchical regression analysis showed that Geriatric Depression Scale, Mini-Mental State Examination, physiological function, up-and-go, fear of falling and psychotropic medication were independent predictors for total EQ-5D, explaining 68.37% of the variance. Logistic regression analysis showed that for the five EQ-5D dimensions, Geriatric Depression Scale and Up and Go time were the most common determinants. Pain/discomfort was the leading impairment, and greater Geriatric Depression Scale and longer up-and-go time were the main contributing factors in declines in quality of life in older adults with increased risk of falling. These factors are often modifiable, and their management might be considered a priority in falls prevention. © 2014 Japan Geriatrics Society.

  8. Corporate Information Management System and Its Influence on Increase of Changes Productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krivtsov, Artem I.; Polinova, Ludmila V.; Ivankina, Marina S.; Chubarkova, Elena V.; Prokubovskaya, Alla O.

    2016-01-01

    The urgency of the problem under investigation due to constant changes in the external business environment requires organizations to establish a mechanism to manage change and increase the impact of these changes. The purpose of the article is to analyze the change management concepts and their applicability in the strategically important…

  9. Increasing drought risk in large-dam basins of South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, I. W.; Shin, Y.; Park, J.; Kim, D.

    2017-12-01

    In 2015, South Korea suffered one of the worst droughts in recent years. Seoul and Gyeonggi and Gangwon provinces experienced severe drought conditions, receiving less than 43 percent of the annual precipitation average of the past 30 years. Additionally, the 2015 summer precipitation was less than half of the average. The lack of summer precipitation induced serious shortages in dam storages, which are important supplies for the dry season. K-water, a public company managing South Korea's public water supply system, is fighting to secure public water supply and minimize potential damage that may occur before the subsequent wet season. This study detected significant decreasing trends (95% confidence interval) in dry-seasonal runoff rates (=dam inflow / precipitation) in three dams basins (Soyang, Chungju, and Andong). Changes in potential evapotranspiration (PET) and precipitation indices were examined to investigate potential causes of decreasing runoff rates trends. However, there were no clear relations among changes in runoff rates, PET, and precipitation indices. Runoff rate reduction in the three dams may increase the risk of dam operational management and long-term water resource planning. Therefore, it will be necessary to perform a multilateral analysis to better understand decreasing runoff rates.AcknowledgementsThis research was supported by a grant(2017-MPSS31-001) from Supporting Technology Development Program for Disaster Management funded by Ministry of Public Safety and Security(MPSS) of the Korean government.

  10. Intergenerational redistribution and risk sharing with changing longevity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben M.

    2014-01-01

    retirement and cohort-specific longevity to address intergenerational redistribution and risk sharing. While it is well known that a utilitarian planner strives for consumption smoothing, it is shown that healthy ageing calls for work smoothing in the sense that retirement ages increase with longevity. Hence...

  11. Can Communicating Personalised Disease Risk Promote Healthy Behaviour Change? A Systematic Review of Systematic Reviews.

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, David P; Cameron, Elaine; Benton, Jack S; Deaton, Christi; Harvie, Michelle

    2017-10-01

    The assessment and communication of disease risk that is personalised to the individual is widespread in healthcare contexts. Despite several systematic reviews of RCTs, it is unclear under what circumstances that personalised risk estimates promotes change in four key health-related behaviours: smoking, physical activity, diet and alcohol consumption. The present research aims to systematically identify, evaluate and synthesise the findings of existing systematic reviews. This systematic review of systematic reviews followed published guidance. A search of four databases and two-stage screening procedure with good reliability identified nine eligible systematic reviews. The nine reviews each included between three and 15 primary studies, containing 36 unique studies. Methods of personalising risk feedback included imaging/visual feedback, genetic testing, and numerical estimation from risk algorithms. The reviews were generally high quality. For a broad range of methods of estimating and communicating risk, the reviews found no evidence that risk information had strong or consistent effects on health-related behaviours. The most promising effects came from interventions using visual or imaging techniques and with smoking cessation and dietary behaviour as outcomes, but with inconsistent results. Few interventions explicitly used theory, few targeted self-efficacy or response efficacy, and a limited range of Behaviour Change Techniques were used. Presenting risk information on its own, even when highly personalised, does not produce strong effects on health-related behaviours or changes which are sustained. Future research in this area should build on the existing knowledge base about increasing the effects of risk communication on behaviour.

  12. "Near-term" Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Risk Hedging in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

    2014-05-01

    Competing with analytics - Can the insurance market take advantage of seasonal or "near-term" forecasting and temporal changes in risk? Natural perils (re)insurance has been based on models following climatology i.e. the long-term "historical" average. This is opposed to considering the "near-term" and forecasting hazard and risk for the seasons or years to come. Variability and short-term changes in risk are deemed abundant for almost all perils. In addition to hydrometeorological perils whose changes are vastly discussed, earthquake activity might also change over various time-scales affected by earlier local (or even global) events, regional changes in the distribution of stresses and strains and more. Only recently has insurance risk modeling of (stochastic) hurricane-years or extratropical-storm-years started considering our ability to forecast climate variability herewith taking advantage of apparent correlations between climate indicators and the activity of storm events. Once some of these "near-term measures" were in the market, rating agencies and regulators swiftly adopted these concepts demanding companies to deploy a selection of more conservative "time-dependent" models. This was despite the fact that the ultimate effect of some of these measures on insurance risk was not well understood. Apparent short-term success over the last years in near-term seasonal hurricane forecasting was brought to a halt in 2013 when these models failed to forecast the exceptional shortage of hurricanes herewith contradicting an active-year forecast. The focus of earthquake forecasting has in addition been mostly on high rather than low temporal and regional activity despite the fact that avoiding losses does not by itself create a product. This presentation sheds light on new risk management concepts for over-regional and global (re)insurance portfolios that take advantage of forecasting changes in risk. The presentation focuses on the "upside" and on new opportunities

  13. Advanced autumn migration of sparrowhawk has increased the predation risk of long-distance migrants in Finland.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksi Lehikoinen

    Full Text Available Predation affects life history traits of nearly all organisms and the population consequences of predator avoidance are often larger than predation itself. Climate change has been shown to cause phenological changes. These changes are not necessarily similar between species and may cause mismatches between prey and predator. Eurasian sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus, the main predator of passerines, has advanced its autumn phenology by about ten days in 30 years due to climate change. However, we do not know if sparrowhawk migrate earlier in response to earlier migration by its prey or if earlier sparrowhawk migration results in changes to predation risk on its prey. By using the median departure date of 41 passerine species I was able to show that early migrating passerines tend to advance, and late migrating species delay their departure, but none of the species have advanced their departure times as much as the sparrowhawk. This has lead to a situation of increased predation risk on early migrating long-distance migrants (LDM and decreased the overlap of migration season with later departing short-distance migrants (SDM. Findings highlight the growing list of problems of declining LDM populations caused by climate change. On the other hand it seems that the autumn migration may become safer for SDM whose populations are growing. Results demonstrate that passerines show very conservative response in autumn phenology to climate change, and thus phenological mismatches caused by global warming are not necessarily increasing towards the higher trophic levels.

  14. Heat-stress increase under climate change twice as large in cities as in rural areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wouters, Hendrik; De Ridder, Koen; Poelmans, Lien; Willems, Patrick; Brouwers, Johan; Hosseinzadehtalaei, Parisa; Tabari, Hossein; Vanden Broucke, Sam; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.; Demuzere, Matthias

    2017-04-01

    Urban areas, being warmer than their surroundings, are particularly vulnerable to global warming and associated increases in extreme temperatures. Yet ensemble climate-model projections are generally performed on a scale that is too coarse to represent the evolution of temperatures in cities. Here, for the first time, we combine a 35-year convection-permitting climate model integrations with information from an ensemble of general circulation models to assess heat stress in a typical densely populated mid-latitude maritime region. We show that the heat-stress increase for the mid-21st century is twice as large in cities compared to their surrounding rural areas. The exacerbation is driven by the urban heat island itself, its concurrence with heatwaves, and urban expansion. Cities experience a heat-stress multiplication by a factor 1.4 and 15 depending on the scenario. Remarkably, the future heat-stress surpasses everywhere the urban hot spots of today. Our novel insights exemplify the need to combine information from climate models, acting on different scales, for climate-change risk assessment in heterogeneous regions. Moreover, these results highlight the necessity for adaptation to increasing heat stress, especially in urban areas.

  15. The Effects of Fall-Risk-Increasing Drugs on Postural Control : A Literature Review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Groot, Maartje H.; van Campen, Jos P. C. M.; Moek, Marije A.; Tulner, Linda R.; Beijnen, Jos H.; Lamoth, Claudine J. C.

    2013-01-01

    Meta-analyses showed that psychotropic drugs (antidepressants, neuroleptics, benzodiazepines, antiepileptic drugs) and some cardiac drugs (digoxin, type IA anti-arrhythmics, diuretics) are associated with increased fall risk. Because balance and gait disorders are the most consistent predictors of

  16. Increased Risks of Upper Tract Urothelial Carcinoma in Male and Female Chinese Herbalists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hsiao-Yu Yang

    2011-03-01

    Conclusion: The significant risk of urothelial carcinoma noted in male herbalists increases our suspicion that this is an occupational disease that renders regular health assessment of herbalists an urgent necessity.