WorldWideScience

Sample records for change impacts linking

  1. From Research to Policy: Linking Climate Change Adaptation to ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    From Research to Policy: Linking Climate Change Adaptation to Sustainable Agriculture. Research on climate change and its impact on the ... Outputs. Journal articles. Factors affecting households vulnerability to climate change in Swaziland : a case of Mpolonjeni Area Development Programme (ADP). Download PDF ...

  2. Impact on local air quality of the planned fixed link across Oresund

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fenger, Jes; Vignati, Elisabetta; Berkowicz, Ruwim

    1996-01-01

    The planned combined bridge and tunnel link between Sweden and Denmark (the Oresund Link) is expected to be in operation around the turn of the century. So far the impacts of the Oresund Link on air pollution have been discussed mainly in terms of changes in emissions, taking into account...... implications of the link on traffic in the region. It appears that the influence on regional and global air pollution will be marginal. Concerning local effects however, the situation is different; the new link across the Oresund and the island Amager will result in significant changes in traffic pattern...

  3. Linking Glaciochemical and Historical Evidence to Study the Impact of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Human Populations in the Last Millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    More, A.; Chaplin, J. E.

    2017-12-01

    A transdisciplinary approach to study the impact of climate change and air pollution has already yielded significant results, where the detail afforded by historical records has linked glaciochemical data with major economic, epidemiological and climatic events (e.g. More et al., Geohealth, 2017). Historical data has allowed for more accurate calibration of ice-core chronologies, reaching sub-annual accuracy. In turn, more precise chronologies and higher resolution glaciochemical data has added a new dimension to our understanding of the environment and human experience in the last millennium of the Common Era. In this paper we propose examples of the benefits of linking highly detailed and large historical datasets with ultra-high-resolution glaciochemical data obtained through laser ablation, inductively coupled mass spectrometry. We will first examine the signature left in the ice-core record by documented, catastrophic epidemiological and economic events. Epidemics reduced population size, thus affecting economic productivity and therefore atmospheric pollution, especially from labor intensive activities such as the mining of metals (copper, iron, silver, lead), or the consumption of firewood. We will then turn our attention to the impact of increased precipitation and severe climate change on human subsistence and stability. We link glaciochemical signals associated with increased precipitation and temperature decreases with multiple, large datasets of historical records of population collapse and increased civil strife in the middle of the Little Ice Age. In particular, we will focus on how in concomitance with severe climate deterioration European countries began prosecuting citizens—by the thousands—for crimes associated with poor harvests. These prosecutions were often the result of an increase in baseless accusations of supernatural influences of thousands of individuals on phenomena such as incessant rain, unseasonal temperature decreases, frosts

  4. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, G; Stone, D

    2016-01-01

    © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts...

  5. Biodiversity, climate change and poverty: exploring the links

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reid, Hannah; Swiderska, Krystyna

    2008-02-15

    Biodiversity — the variety of all life, from genes and species to ecosystems — is intimately linked to Earth's climate and, inevitably, to climate change. Biodiversity and poverty are also inextricably connected. For instance, changes to natural ecosystems influence both climate change and people's ability to cope with some of its damaging impacts. And in their turn climate change, as well as people's responses to it, affect biodiversity. Unpicking all these strands clearly shows that conserving and managing biodiversity can help natural systems and vulnerable people cope with a shifting global climate. Yet compared to activities such as forest conservation and afforestation — widely noted as a way of sequestering carbon and cutting greenhouse gas emissions — biodiversity conservation is a neglected area. That must change: urgent support is needed for local solutions to biodiversity loss that provide benefits on all counts.

  6. Biodiversity, climate change and poverty: exploring the links

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reid, Hannah; Swiderska, Krystyna

    2008-02-15

    Biodiversity — the variety of all life, from genes and species to ecosystems — is intimately linked to Earth's climate and, inevitably, to climate change. Biodiversity and poverty are also inextricably connected. For instance, changes to natural ecosystems influence both climate change and people's ability to cope with some of its damaging impacts. And in their turn climate change, as well as people's responses to it, affect biodiversity. Unpicking all these strands clearly shows that conserving and managing biodiversity can help natural systems and vulnerable people cope with a shifting global climate. Yet compared to activities such as forest conservation and afforestation — widely noted as a way of sequestering carbon and cutting greenhouse gas emissions — biodiversity conservation is a neglected area. That must change: urgent support is needed for local solutions to biodiversity loss that provide benefits on all counts.

  7. NON-PRICE PROMOTION IMPACTS ON COTTON AND SOYBEANS EXPORTS UNDER EXCHANGE RATE LINKED SUBSIDIES

    OpenAIRE

    Paudel, Laxmi; Adhikari, Murali; Houston, Jack E.; Kinnucan, Henry W.

    2003-01-01

    Issue of exchange rate-linked subsidies for non-price export promotion has recently emerged as an area of interest among marketing researchers because of fluctuating strength of US dollars and position of US agricultural goods in export markets. One solution to mitigate these impacts was to link the federal export promotion subsidies with the changing value of US dollars. In the study, an equilibrium displacement framework was developed to analyze the effectiveness of exchange rate-linked sub...

  8. Linking climate change to community-level impacts on copepods via a new, trait-based model: Life-history and metabolic mechanisms compared

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Banas, Neil S.; Møller, Eva Friis; Nielsen, Torkel Gissel

    2017-01-01

    A new, trait-based copepod model ("Coltrane": Copepod Life-history Traits and Adaptation to Novel Environments) has been developed, drawing on past work on both optimal annual routines and trait-based plankton metacommunity models, in order to evaluate climate impacts on copepods via 1) phenology...... and physiology of local populations of C. finmarchicus, C. glacialis, and C. hyperboreus. Futhermore, the model replicates the observed range of stored lipid content of these copepod populations (30–60%, C. finmarchicus–C. hyperboreus), suggesting a means for linking changes in temperature and primary production...

  9. Linking climate change to community-level impacts on copepods via a new, trait-based model: Life-history and metabolic mechanisms compared

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Banas, Neil S.; Møller, Eva Friis; Nielsen, Torkel Gissel

    A new, trait-based copepod model ("Coltrane": Copepod Life-history Traits and Adaptation to Novel Environments) has been developed, drawing on past work on both optimal annual routines and trait-based plankton metacommunity models, in order to evaluate climate impacts on copepods via 1) phenology...... and physiology of local populations of C. finmarchicus, C. glacialis, and C. hyperboreus. Futhermore, the model replicates the observed range of stored lipid content of these copepod populations (30–60%, C. finmarchicus–C. hyperboreus), suggesting a means for linking changes in temperature and primary production...

  10. Linking effects of anthropogenic debris to ecological impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browne, Mark Anthony; Underwood, A. J.; Chapman, M. G.; Williams, Rob; Thompson, Richard C.; van Franeker, Jan A.

    2015-01-01

    Accelerated contamination of habitats with debris has caused increased effort to determine ecological impacts. Strikingly, most work on organisms focuses on sublethal responses to plastic debris. This is controversial because (i) researchers have ignored medical insights about the mechanisms that link effects of debris across lower levels of biological organization to disease and mortality, and (ii) debris is considered non-hazardous by policy-makers, possibly because individuals can be injured or removed from populations and assemblages without ecological impacts. We reviewed the mechanisms that link effects of debris across lower levels of biological organization to assemblages and populations. Using plastic, we show microplastics reduce the ‘health’, feeding, growth and survival of ecosystem engineers. Larger debris alters assemblages because fishing-gear and tyres kill animals and damage habitat-forming plants, and because floating bottles facilitate recruitment and survival of novel taxa. Where ecological linkages are not known, we show how to establish hypothetical links by synthesizing studies to assess the likelihood of impacts. We also consider how population models examine ecological linkages and guide management of ecological impacts. We show that by focusing on linkages to ecological impacts rather than the presence of debris and its sublethal impacts, we could reduce threats posed by debris. PMID:25904661

  11. Zoonosis emergence linked to agricultural intensification and environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Bryony A; Grace, Delia; Kock, Richard; Alonso, Silvia; Rushton, Jonathan; Said, Mohammed Y; McKeever, Declan; Mutua, Florence; Young, Jarrah; McDermott, John; Pfeiffer, Dirk Udo

    2013-05-21

    A systematic review was conducted by a multidisciplinary team to analyze qualitatively best available scientific evidence on the effect of agricultural intensification and environmental changes on the risk of zoonoses for which there are epidemiological interactions between wildlife and livestock. The study found several examples in which agricultural intensification and/or environmental change were associated with an increased risk of zoonotic disease emergence, driven by the impact of an expanding human population and changing human behavior on the environment. We conclude that the rate of future zoonotic disease emergence or reemergence will be closely linked to the evolution of the agriculture-environment nexus. However, available research inadequately addresses the complexity and interrelatedness of environmental, biological, economic, and social dimensions of zoonotic pathogen emergence, which significantly limits our ability to predict, prevent, and respond to zoonotic disease emergence.

  12. Linking effects of anthropogenic debris to ecological impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browne, Mark Anthony; Underwood, A J; Chapman, M G; Williams, Rob; Thompson, Richard C; van Franeker, Jan A

    2015-05-22

    Accelerated contamination of habitats with debris has caused increased effort to determine ecological impacts. Strikingly, most work on organisms focuses on sublethal responses to plastic debris. This is controversial because (i) researchers have ignored medical insights about the mechanisms that link effects of debris across lower levels of biological organization to disease and mortality, and (ii) debris is considered non-hazardous by policy-makers, possibly because individuals can be injured or removed from populations and assemblages without ecological impacts. We reviewed the mechanisms that link effects of debris across lower levels of biological organization to assemblages and populations. Using plastic, we show microplastics reduce the 'health', feeding, growth and survival of ecosystem engineers. Larger debris alters assemblages because fishing-gear and tyres kill animals and damage habitat-forming plants, and because floating bottles facilitate recruitment and survival of novel taxa. Where ecological linkages are not known, we show how to establish hypothetical links by synthesizing studies to assess the likelihood of impacts. We also consider how population models examine ecological linkages and guide management of ecological impacts. We show that by focusing on linkages to ecological impacts rather than the presence of debris and its sublethal impacts, we could reduce threats posed by debris. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  13. Climate Signals: An On-Line Digital Platform for Mapping Climate Change Impacts in Real Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cutting, H.

    2016-12-01

    Climate Signals is an on-line digital platform for cataloging and mapping the impacts of climate change. The CS platform specifies and details the chains of connections between greenhouse gas emissions and individual climate events. Currently in open-beta release, the platform is designed to to engage and serve the general public, news media, and policy-makers, particularly in real-time during extreme climate events. Climate Signals consists of a curated relational database of events and their links to climate change, a mapping engine, and a gallery of climate change monitors offering real-time data. For each event in the database, an infographic engine provides a custom attribution "tree" that illustrates the connections to climate change. In addition, links to key contextual resources are aggregated and curated for each event. All event records are fully annotated with detailed source citations and corresponding hyper links. The system of attribution used to link events to climate change in real-time is detailed here. This open-beta release is offered for public user testing and engagement. Launched in May 2016, the operation of this platform offers lessons for public engagement in climate change impacts.

  14. Impact of Dual-Link Failures on Impairment-Aware Routed Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Georgakilas, Konstantinos N; Katrinis, Kostas; Tzanakaki, Anna

    2010-01-01

    This paper evaluates the impact of dual-link failures on single-link failure resilient networks, while physical layer constraints are taken into consideration during demand routing, as dual link failures and equivalent situations appear to be quite probable in core optical networks. In particular...

  15. Making the links: do we connect climate change with health? A qualitative case study from Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardwell, Francesca S; Elliott, Susan J

    2013-03-08

    Climate change has been described as the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. Typically framed as an environmental issue, some suggest this view has contributed to public ambivalence and hence a lack of public engagement. The lack of understanding of climate change as a significant environmental health risk on the part of the lay public represents a significant barrier to behaviour change. We therefore need to think about reframing the impact of climate change from an environmental to a health issue. This paper builds on calls for increased understanding of the public's views of human health risks associated with climate change, focusing on facilitators and barriers to behaviour change. Semi-structured in-depth interviews (n = 22) with residents of the Golden Horseshoe region of Southern Ontario were conducted between August 2010 and January 2011. Topics included individual and community health, climate change, and facilitators and barriers to behaviour change. Few participants recognized the role of the environment in the context of either individual and community health. When asked about health concerns specific to their community, however, environmental issues were mentioned frequently. Health effects as possible impacts of global environmental change were mentioned by 77% of participants when prompted, but this link was not described in great detail or within the context of impacting their communities or themselves. Participants were willing to act in environmentally friendly ways, and possible incentives to undertake behaviour change such as decreasing cost were described. Health co-benefits were not identified as incentives to engaging in mitigative or adaptive behaviours. The results support recent calls for reframing the impact of climate change from an environmental to a public health issue in order to increase public engagement in adaptive and mitigative behaviour change. While previous research has touched on public awareness of the

  16. Climate Change Impacts on US Water Quality using two Models: HAWQS and US Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change and freshwater quality are well-linked. Changes in climate result in changes in streamflow and rising water temperatures, which impact biochemical reaction rates and increase stratification in lakes and reservoirs. Using two water quality modeling systems (the Hydr...

  17. Uncertainty of climate change impacts and consequences on the prediction of future hydrological trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minville, M.; Brissette, F.; Leconte, R.

    2008-01-01

    In the future, water is very likely to be the resource that will be most severely affected by climate change. It has been shown that small perturbations in precipitation frequency and/or quantity can result in significant impacts on the mean annual discharge. Moreover, modest changes in natural inflows result in larger changes in reservoir storage. There is however great uncertainty linked to changes in both the magnitude and direction of future hydrological trends. This presentation discusses the various sources of this uncertainty and their potential impact on the prediction of future hydrological trends. A companion paper will look at adaptation potential, taking into account some of the sources of uncertainty discussed in this presentation. Uncertainty is separated into two main components: climatic uncertainty and 'model and methods' uncertainty. Climatic uncertainty is linked to uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES) and to general circulation models (GCMs), whose representation of topography and climate processes is imperfect, in large part due to computational limitations. The uncertainty linked to natural variability (which may or may not increase) is also part of the climatic uncertainty. 'Model and methods' uncertainty regroups the uncertainty linked to the different approaches and models needed to transform climate data so that they can be used by hydrological models (such as downscaling methods) and the uncertainty of the models themselves and of their use in a changed climate. The impacts of the various sources of uncertainty on the hydrology of a watershed are demonstrated on the Peribonka River basin (Quebec, Canada). The results indicate that all sources of uncertainty can be important and outline the importance of taking these sources into account for any impact and adaptation studies. Recommendations are outlined for such studies. (author)

  18. Characterizing the impact of projected changes in climate and ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The impact of climate change on human and environmental health is of critical concern. Population exposures to air pollutants both indoors and outdoors are influenced by a wide range of air quality, meteorological, behavioral, and housing-related factors, many of which are also impacted by climate change. An integrated methodology for modeling changes in human exposures to tropospheric ozone (O3) owing to potential future changes in climate and demographics was implemented by linking existing modeling tools for climate, weather, air quality, population distribution, and human exposure. Human exposure results from the Air Pollutants Exposure Model (APEX) for 12 US cities show differences in daily maximum 8-h (DM8H) exposure patterns and levels by sex, age, and city for all scenarios. When climate is held constant and population demographics are varied, minimal difference in O3 exposures is predicted even with the most extreme demographic change scenario. In contrast, when population is held constant, we see evidence of substantial changes in O3 exposure for the most extreme change in climate. Similarly, we see increases in the percentage of the population in each city with at least one O3 exposure exceedance above 60 p.p.b and 70 p.p.b thresholds for future changes in climate. For these climate and population scenarios, the impact of projected changes in climate and air quality on human exposure to O3 are much larger than the impacts of changing demographics.

  19. Projected impacts of climate change on marine fish and fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hollowed, Anne B.; Barange, Manuel; Beamish, Richard J.

    2013-01-01

    This paper reviews current literature on the projected effects of climate change on marine fish and shellfish, their fisheries, and fishery-dependent communities throughout the northern hemisphere. The review addresses the following issues: (i) expected impacts on ecosystem productivity and habitat......) implications for food security and associated changes; and (v) uncertainty and modelling skill assessment. Climate change will impact fish and shellfish, their fisheries, and fishery-dependent communities through a complex suite of linked processes. Integrated interdisciplinary research teams are forming...... in many regions to project these complex responses. National and international marine research organizations serve a key role in the coordination and integration of research to accelerate the production of projections of the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and to move towards a future where...

  20. Impacts of climate change: still an abstract threat for the French

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pautard, Eric; Kraszewski, Marlene

    2015-10-01

    Amongst the different environmental issues, climate change is the main concern of the French. However, the risk is difficult to apprehend in concrete terms. When asked about the possible consequences of climate change for them, a quarter of the French had no idea of potential impacts. Furthermore, 15% thought there would be no negative effect at their level. Extreme weather events and climate-change induced health problems are the main fears spontaneously cited in the survey, followed by territorial impacts and deterioration of living conditions. Nonetheless, more than half of the responses remain impersonal, in that they focus mainly on global impacts. This distant, or even abstract, relation of some French people to the issue appears to be linked partially to respondent's educational levels and age. (authors)

  1. Wind power: Addressing wildlife impacts, assessing effects on tourism, and examining the link between climate change perceptions and support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lilley, Meredith Blaydes

    incidental take permits at wind facilities. Equal protections for bats are also recommended. In examining the potential effect of offshore wind power on coastal tourism, the second paper reports the findings of a summer 2007 survey of over 1,000 out-of-state tourists at Delaware beaches. Randomly sampled beachgoers were shown photo-simulations of wind turbines at increasing distances from shore and asked how each simulation would affect visitation. With wind turbines located six miles offshore, approximately one-quarter would switch to a different beach. This stated avoidance, however, diminishes with increasing wind project distance from shore. Additionally, stated avoidance of a beach with turbines six miles offshore is exceeded by: avoidance of a beach with an equidistant, inland, fossil fuel power plant; attraction to a beach in order to see turbines six miles offshore; and the likelihood of paying for an offshore wind boat tour. Further, logistic regression modeling reveals that neither trip cost nor income significantly influences the likelihood of visiting a beach with offshore wind. These findings suggest that to limit beach avoidance, offshore wind developers could site wind facilities further from shore, particularly in areas with high recreational use. Moreover, with wind turbines six miles offshore serving more as an attraction than as a deterrent, offshore wind development may, in fact, bolster local tourism revenues. The third study examines public perceptions of climate change and the link between those perceptions and support for wind power, both in general and with respect to specific offshore sites. Analyzing data from five surveys, this research uncovers low climate awareness and concern levels overall. Respondents demonstrate a poor understanding of climate change impacts and of how to effectively address climate change. In accordance with the New Ecological Paradigm, still fewer are concerned about climate change. The issue ranks 6th in Delaware and 8th

  2. Making effective links to decision-making: Key challenges for health impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elliott, Eva; Francis, Sarah

    2005-01-01

    This paper draws on an exploratory research study to examine the effectiveness of health impact assessments in Wales. Through the review of five case study health impact assessments the research identified a number of benefits of the process in terms of skills and knowledge development amongst participants. The indirect contributions to decision-making were also evident including the way in which health impact assessment provided useful insights into the local community's perspective and raised awareness about the wider determinants of health. The process was also useful in establishing a dialogue between different stakeholders, which indirectly assisted decision-making and implementation. The direct links between health impact assessment and decision-making were more difficult to trace and this paper puts forward a number of suggestions for making those links more transparent. Suggestions include integrating decision-makers and clarifying the intended links to decision-making at the start of the health impact assessment process. Mainstreaming health impact assessment so that it is triggered as a routine part of all decision-making would help ensure it stands the best chance of informing decisions

  3. Addressing climate change in the Forest Vegetation Simulator to assess impacts on landscape forest dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholas L. Crookston; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Gary E. Dixon; Aaron R. Weiskittel

    2010-01-01

    To simulate stand-level impacts of climate change, predictors in the widely used Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) were adjusted to account for expected climate effects. This was accomplished by: (1) adding functions that link mortality and regeneration of species to climate variables expressing climatic suitability, (2) constructing a function linking site index to...

  4. Construction of climate change scenarios from transient climate change experiments for the IPCC impacts assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viner, D.; Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.; Jones, P.D.

    1994-01-01

    This paper outlines the different methods which may be used for the construction of regional climate change scenarios. The main focus of the paper is the construction of global climate change scenarios from climate change experiments carried out using General Circulation Models (GCMS) An introduction to some GCM climate change experiments highlights the difference between model types and experiments (e.g., equilibrium or transient). The latest generation of climate change experiments has been performed using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMS. These allow transient simulations of climate change to be performed with respect to a given greenhouse gas forcing scenario. There are, however, a number of problems with these simulations which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios for use in climate change impacts assessment. The characteristics of the transient climate change experiments which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios are discussed. Three examples of these problems are: different climate change experiments use different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios; the 'cold-start' problem makes it difficult to link future projections of climate change to a given calendar year; a drift of the climate is noticeable in the control simulations. In order to construct climate change scenarios for impacts assessment a method has therefore to be employed which addresses these problems. At present the climate modeling and climate change impacts communities are somewhat polarized in their approach to spatial scales. Current GCMs model the climate at resolutions larger than 2.5 x 3.75 degree, while the majority of impacts assessment studies are undertaken at scales below 50km (or 0.5 degree). This paper concludes by addressing the problems in bringing together these two different modeling perspectives by presenting a number of regional climate change scenarios. 35 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs

  5. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, V. H.; Rauscher, H. M.

    1993-04-06

    Models that address the impacts to forests of climate change are reviewed by four levels of biological organization: global, regional or landscape, community, and tree. The models are compared as to their ability to assess changes in greenhouse gas flux, land use, maps of forest type or species composition, forest resource productivity, forest health, biodiversity, and wildlife habitat. No one model can address all of these impacts, but landscape transition models and regional vegetation and land-use models consider the largest number of impacts. Developing landscape vegetation dynamics models of functional groups is suggested as a means to integrate the theory of both landscape ecology and individual tree responses to climate change. Risk assessment methodologies can be adapted to deal with the impacts of climate change at various spatial and temporal scales. Four areas of research development are identified: (1) linking socioeconomic and ecologic models, (2) interfacing forest models at different scales, (3) obtaining data on susceptibility of trees and forest to changes in climate and disturbance regimes, and (4) relating information from different scales.

  6. What's happening out there? (Climatic change impacts)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Visconti, G.

    1990-01-01

    This article briefly comments on some stumbling-blocks to climatic change modelling accuracy - in assessments of the greenhouse effect, 25% (missing link) of atmospheric carbon dioxide absorption is still unaccounted for; 1989 World Bank estimates of the Amazon rain forest deforestation rate have since proven to be inaccurate; there are difficulties in assessing the movement of the earth's crust relative to variations in sea level; and different studies vary in results relative to global temperature measurement and trend assessment. The need for an assessment of the economic impacts of increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide is also pointed out

  7. Developing a reduced-form ensemble of climate change scenarios for Europe and its application to selected impact indicators

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dubrovský, Martin; Trnka, M.; Holman, I. P.; Svobodová, E.; Harrison, P. A.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 128, 3-4 (2015), s. 169-186 ISSN 0165-0009 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LD12029 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : global Climate Model * ensemble of models * climate change * climate change scenarios * climate change impact indices * Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.344, year: 2015 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-014-1297-7

  8. Changing historical flood behaviour - is there a link to landscape changes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogger, Magdalena; Kiss, Andrea; Bloeschl, Guenter

    2014-05-01

    Although large-scale changes in flood behaviour are usually related to the variability and changes of climatic conditions and atmospheric patterns, human impact clearly also played an important role in changing flood behaviour by various types of river regulations and by land use changes (vegetation cover and soil conditions). The influence of land use changes on the flood regime is, however, still poorly understood. Based on scientific literature, we present the major phases of historical landscape changes of the last 1000 years in Europe discussing possible impacts on the related flood regimes. On the one hand, we provide an overview of major landscape changes and phases of changes in Europe dividing the available evidence into four major regions (Central Europe, Mediterranean, North- and West-Europe). On the other hand, we present case studies where we discuss the potential differences in the impacts of changes in specific vegetation types or the abandonment of formerly cultivated areas (with special emphasis on hilly areas) on the flood regime. In this sense, we make a special emphasis on the LIA-MWP (Little Ice Age - Medieval Warm Period) transition (i.e. 13th-15th centuries) as well as on the period of the early industrial revolution (18th-19th centuries).

  9. Self-Renewal, Personal Development and Change: An Inexorable Link.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krupp, Judy-Arin

    1995-01-01

    Self-renewal, personal development, and change create an inexorable link. Change management processes include the following: (1) internal locus of control; (2) freedom from institutional crutches; (3) flexible teaching; (4) recognition of emotional reactions to change; and (5) identification of the causes of indecisiveness and insecurities. (JOW)

  10. Coupled water-energy modelling to assess climate change impacts on the Iberian Power System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pereira Cardenal, Silvio Javier; Madsen, H.; Riegels, N.

    and marginal costs of the power producers. Two effects of climate change on the power system were studied: changes in the hydropower production caused by changes in precipitation and temperature, and changes in the electricity demand over the year caused by temperature changes. A rainfall-runoff model......Water resources systems and power systems are strongly linked; water is needed for most power generation technologies, and electricity is required in every stage of water usage. In the Iberian Peninsula, climate change is expected to have a negative impact on the power system: changes in runoff...... was established to estimate the impact of precipitation and temperature changes on reservoir inflows. The model was calibrated using observed precipitation, temperature and river discharge time series. Potential evapotranspiration was estimated from temperature data, and snow accumulation/melt was modelled using...

  11. Assessing socioeconomic impacts of climate change on U.S. forests, wood-product markets, and forest recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd C. Irland; Darius Adams; Ralph Alig; Carter J. Betz; Chi-Chung Chen; Mark Hutchins; Bruce A. McCarl; Ken Skog; Brent L. Sohngen

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we discuss the problems of projecting social and economic changes affecting forests and review recent efforts to assess the wood-market impacts of possible climate changes. To illustrate the range of conditions encountered in projecting socioeconomic change linked to forests, we consider two markedly different uses: forest products markets and forest...

  12. Impacts of Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling on Southern Hemisphere Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Feng; Newman, Paul; Pawson, Steven

    2013-01-01

    Climate in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) has undergone significant changes in recent decades. These changes are closely linked to the shift of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) towards its positive polarity, which is driven primarily by Antarctic ozone depletion. There is growing evidence that Antarctic ozone depletion has significant impacts on Southern Ocean circulation change. However, it is poorly understood whether and how ocean feedback might impact the SAM and climate change in the SH atmosphere. This outstanding science question is investigated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry Climate Model(GEOS-AOCCM).We perform ensemble simulations of the recent past (1960-2010) with and without the interactive ocean. For simulations without the interactive ocean, we use sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations produced by the interactive ocean simulations. The differences between these two ensemble simulations quantify the effects of atmosphere-ocean coupling. We will investigate the impacts of atmosphere-ocean coupling on stratospheric processes such as Antarctic ozone depletion and Antarctic polar vortex breakup. We will address whether ocean feedback affects Rossby wave generation in the troposphere and wave propagation into the stratosphere. Another focuson this study is to assess how ocean feedback might affect the tropospheric SAM response to Antarctic ozone depletion

  13. Linking intended visitation to regional economic impact models of bison and elk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loomis, J.; Caughlan, L.

    2004-01-01

    This article links intended National Park visitation estimates to regional economic models to calculate the employment impacts of alternative bison and elk management strategies. The survey described alternative National Elk Refuge (NER) management actions and the effects on elk and bison populations at the NER and adjacent Grand Teton National Park (GTNP). Park visitors were then asked if they would change their number of visits with each potential management action. Results indicate there would be a 10% decrease in visitation if bison populations were reduced from 600 to 400 animals and elk populations were reduced in GTNP and the NER. The related decrease in jobs in Teton counties of Wyoming and Idaho is estimated at 5.5%. Adopting a “no active management” option of never feeding elk and bison on the NER yields about one-third the current bison population (200 bison) and about half the elk population. Visitors surveyed about this management option would take about 20% fewer trips, resulting in an 11.3% decrease in employment. Linking intended visitation surveys and regional economic models represents a useful tool for natural resource planners who must present the consequences of potential actions in Environmental Impact Statements and plans to the public and decision makers prior to any action being implemented.

  14. How reliably can climate change and mitigation policy impacts on electric utilities be assessed?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Kopp, R.J.; Palmer, K.; De Witt, D.

    1993-01-01

    Numerous mechanisms link climate change and electric utilities. Electricity generation releases radiatively active trace substances (RATS). Significant changes in atmospheric concentration of RATS can lead to a change in regional and global climate regimes. Mitigation action designed to prevent or limit climate change is possible through curbing emissions. Climate change and related mitigation actions impact on electric utilities. Foresight in electric utility planning requires reliable predictions of how the utilities may be affected in the decades ahead. In this paper the impacts of climate change and mitigation policies are noted, and our ability to assess these is reviewed. To this end a suite of models exploring supply and demand questions have been developed. The overall conclusion of the study is that the demand-side uncertainties dominate other unknowns and need to be better characterized and understood. (author)

  15. Climate Change Impacts on Water Availability and Use in the Limpopo River Basin

    OpenAIRE

    Tingju Zhu; Claudia Ringler

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyzes the effects of climate change on water availability and use in the Limpopo River Basin of Southern Africa, using a linked modeling system consisting of a semi-distributed global hydrological model and the Water Simulation Module (WSM) of the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). Although the WSM simulates all major water use sectors, the focus of this study is to evaluate the implications of climate change on irrigation wat...

  16. Total Environment of Change: Impacts of Climate Change and Social Transitions on Subsistence Fisheries in Northwest Alaska

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katie J. Moerlein

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Arctic ecosystems are undergoing rapid changes as a result of global climate change, with significant implications for the livelihoods of Arctic peoples. In this paper, based on ethnographic research conducted with the Iñupiaq communities of Noatak and Selawik in northwestern Alaska, we detail prominent environmental changes observed over the past twenty to thirty years and their impacts on subsistence-based lifestyles. However, we suggest that it is ultimately insufficient to try to understand how Arctic communities are experiencing and responding to climate change in isolation from other stressors. During interviews and participant observation documenting local observations of climatic and related environmental shifts and impacts to subsistence fishing practices, we find the inseparability of environmental, social, economic, cultural, and political realms for community residents. Many of our informants, who live in a mixed economy based on various forms of income and widespread subsistence harvesting of fish and game, perceive and experience climate change as embedded among numerous other factors affecting subsistence patterns and practices. Changing lifestyles, decreasing interest by younger generations in pursuing subsistence livelihoods, and economic challenges are greatly affecting contemporary subsistence patterns and practices in rural Alaska. Observations of climate change are perceived, experienced, and articulated to researchers through a broader lens of these linked lifestyle and cultural shifts. Therefore, we argue that to properly assess and understand the impacts of climate change on the subsistence practices in Arctic communities, we must also consider the total environment of change that is dramatically shaping the relationship between people, communities, and their surrounding environments.

  17. Progress in modelling agricultural impacts of and adaptations to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rötter, R P; Hoffmann, M P; Koch, M; Müller, C

    2018-06-01

    Modelling is a key tool to explore agricultural impacts of and adaptations to climate change. Here we report recent progress made especially referring to the large project initiatives MACSUR and AgMIP; in particular, in modelling potential crop impacts from field to global using multi-model ensembles. We identify two main fields where further progress is necessary: a more mechanistic understanding of climate impacts and management options for adaptation and mitigation; and focusing on cropping systems and integrative multi-scale assessments instead of single season and crops, especially in complex tropical and neglected but important cropping systems. Stronger linking of experimentation with statistical and eco-physiological crop modelling could facilitate the necessary methodological advances. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Mapping protein structural changes by quantitative cross-linking

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kukačka, Zdeněk; Strohalm, Martin; Kavan, Daniel; Novák, Petr

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 89, NOV 2015 (2015), s. 112-120 ISSN 1046-2023 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0055; GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.30.0003; GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0109 Grant - others:OPPC(XE) CZ.2.16/3.1.00/24023 Institutional support: RVO:61388971 Keywords : Chemical cross-linking * Proteolysis * Mass spectrometry Subject RIV: CE - Biochemistry Impact factor: 3.503, year: 2015

  19. Impact of environmental pollution and climate change on forest ecosystems: the activity of the IUFRO Research Group 7.01

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paoletti E

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Impact of environmental pollution and climate change on forest ecosystems: the activity of the IUFRO Research Group 7.01. The IUFRO RG 7.01 deals with "Impacts of Air Pollution and Climate Change on Forest Ecosystems". Climate change and air pollution are closely linked, although in applied scientific research and even more in political negotiations they have been largely separated. Many of the traditional air pollutants and greenhouse gases have not only common sources, but may also interact physically and chemically in the atmosphere causing a variety of environmental impacts on the local, regional and global scales. The impacts on forest ecosystems have been traditionally treated separately for air pollution and climate change. However, the combined effects of numerous climate change and air pollution factors may significantly differ from a sum of separate effects due to an array of various synergistic or antagonistic interactions. The net effect varies for different ecosystem types and geographic regions, and depends on magnitude of climate or air pollution drivers, and types of interactions between them. This paper reviews the links between air pollution and climate change and their interactive effects on forests. A simultaneous addressing of the air pollution and climate change effects on forests is an opportunity for capturing synergies and avoiding overlaps between two lines of traditional research. This could result in more effective research, monitoring and management as well as better integration of environmental policies.

  20. Impact of Various Parameters on the Performance of Inter-aircraft Optical Wireless Communication Link

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Mehtab

    2017-12-01

    Optical wireless communication (OWC) systems also known as Free space optics (FSO) are capable of providing high channel bandwidth, high data transmission rates, low power consumption, and high security. OWC links are being considered in different applications such as inter-satellite links, terrestrial links, and inter-aircraft communication links. This paper investigates the impact of different system parameters such as transmission power level, operating wavelength, transmitter pointing error angle, bit transmission rate, atmospheric attenuation, antenna aperture diameter, geometric losses, the responsivity of the photodetector, and link range on the performance of inter-aircraft optical wireless communication link.

  1. Measuring Consortium Impact on User Perceptions: OhioLINK and LibQUAL+[TM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatten, Jeffrey N.

    2004-01-01

    What is the impact of an academic library consortium on the perceptions of library services experienced by users of the member institutions' libraries? What is the impact of an academic library consortium on the perceptions of library services experienced by users of the member institutions libraries? In 2002 and 2003, OhioLINK (Ohio's consortium…

  2. Change Agents & Impact Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kørnøv, Lone; Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Hansen, Anne Merrild

    2010-01-01

    One of the challenges facing impact assessment is finding ways to work in research and practice that allow appropriate action and critical interrogation og action to enable and support sustainable change.......One of the challenges facing impact assessment is finding ways to work in research and practice that allow appropriate action and critical interrogation og action to enable and support sustainable change....

  3. Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro, E-mail: aenriquez@draba.org [Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED)/Draba Ingeniería y Consultoría Medioambiental, Cañada Nueva, 13, 28200 San Lorenzo de El Escorial (Spain); Díaz-Sierra, Rubén, E-mail: sierra@dfmf.uned.es [Departamento de Física Matemática y de Fluidos, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Martín-Aranda, Rosa M., E-mail: rmartin@ccia.uned.es [Departamento de Química Inorgánica y Química Técnica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Santos, Maria J., E-mail: M.J.FerreiraDosSantos@uu.nl [Department of Innovation, Environmental and Energy Sciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3572 TC Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2017-05-15

    Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship between climate change adaptation and environmental impact assessment, and the degree to which environmental impacts are included in climate change adaptation theory and practice. Our literature review showed that technical, social and economic perspectives on climate change adaptation receive much more attention than the environmental perspective. The scarce interest on the environmental impacts of adaptation may be attributed to (1) an excessive sectoral approach, with dominance of non-environmental perspectives, (2) greater interest in mitigation and direct climate change impacts rather than in adaptation impacts, (3) a tendency to consider adaptation as inherently good, and (4) subjective/preconceived notions on which measures are good or bad, without a comprehensive assessment. Environmental Assessment (EA) has a long established history as an effective tool to include environment into decision-making, although it does not yet guarantee a proper assessment of adaptation, because it is still possible to postpone or even circumvent the processes of assessing the impacts of climate adaptation. Our results suggest that there is a need to address adaptation proactively by including it in EA, to update current policy frameworks, and to demand robust and reliable evaluation of alternatives. Only through the full EA of adaptation measures can we improve our understanding of the primary and secondary impacts of adaptation to global environmental change. - Highlights: • Climate change adaptation may have undesirable environmental impacts. • The impacts of adaptation are yet poorly analysed in the literature. • There is an excessive sectoral approach to adaptation, mainly

  4. Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro; Díaz-Sierra, Rubén; Martín-Aranda, Rosa M.; Santos, Maria J.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship between climate change adaptation and environmental impact assessment, and the degree to which environmental impacts are included in climate change adaptation theory and practice. Our literature review showed that technical, social and economic perspectives on climate change adaptation receive much more attention than the environmental perspective. The scarce interest on the environmental impacts of adaptation may be attributed to (1) an excessive sectoral approach, with dominance of non-environmental perspectives, (2) greater interest in mitigation and direct climate change impacts rather than in adaptation impacts, (3) a tendency to consider adaptation as inherently good, and (4) subjective/preconceived notions on which measures are good or bad, without a comprehensive assessment. Environmental Assessment (EA) has a long established history as an effective tool to include environment into decision-making, although it does not yet guarantee a proper assessment of adaptation, because it is still possible to postpone or even circumvent the processes of assessing the impacts of climate adaptation. Our results suggest that there is a need to address adaptation proactively by including it in EA, to update current policy frameworks, and to demand robust and reliable evaluation of alternatives. Only through the full EA of adaptation measures can we improve our understanding of the primary and secondary impacts of adaptation to global environmental change. - Highlights: • Climate change adaptation may have undesirable environmental impacts. • The impacts of adaptation are yet poorly analysed in the literature. • There is an excessive sectoral approach to adaptation, mainly

  5. Systematic review of current efforts to quantify the impacts of climate change on undernutrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phalkey, Revati K; Aranda-Jan, Clara; Marx, Sabrina; Höfle, Bernhard; Sauerborn, Rainer

    2015-08-18

    Malnutrition is a challenge to the health and productivity of populations and is viewed as one of the five largest adverse health impacts of climate change. Nonetheless, systematic evidence quantifying these impacts is currently limited. Our aim was to assess the scientific evidence base for the impact of climate change on childhood undernutrition (particularly stunting) in subsistence farmers in low- and middle-income countries. A systematic review was conducted to identify peer-reviewed and gray full-text documents in English with no limits for year of publication or study design. Fifteen manuscripts were reviewed. Few studies use primary data to investigate the proportion of stunting that can be attributed to climate/weather variability. Although scattered and limited, current evidence suggests a significant but variable link between weather variables, e.g., rainfall, extreme weather events (floods/droughts), seasonality, and temperature, and childhood stunting at the household level (12 of 15 studies, 80%). In addition, we note that agricultural, socioeconomic, and demographic factors at the household and individual levels also play substantial roles in mediating the nutritional impacts. Comparable interdisciplinary studies based on primary data at a household level are urgently required to guide effective adaptation, particularly for rural subsistence farmers. Systemization of data collection at the global level is indispensable and urgent. We need to assimilate data from long-term, high-quality agricultural, environmental, socioeconomic, health, and demographic surveillance systems and develop robust statistical methods to establish and validate causal links, quantify impacts, and make reliable predictions that can guide evidence-based health interventions in the future.

  6. Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Planton, S.; Deque, M.; Chauvin, F.; Terray, L.

    2008-01-01

    An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical down-scaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, down-scaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and down-scaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. (authors)

  7. Climate change impacts: an Ontario perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mortsch, L.

    1995-11-01

    Significant changes in the climate system which are likely to affect biophysical, social and economic systems in various ways, were discussed. Trends in greenhouse gas levels show that during the 20. century, human activity has changed the make-up of the atmosphere and its greenhouse effect properties. A pilot study on the impacts of climate change identified changes in the water regime such as declines in net basin supply, lake levels and outflows, as important concerns. These changes would have impacts on water quality, wetlands, municipal water supply, hydroelectric power generation, commercial shipping, tourism and recreation, and to a lesser extent, on food productions. Climate impact assessments suggest that world conditions will change significantly as a result. Those with less resources are likely to be most affected by climate change, and the impacts on other regions of the world will be more significant to Ontario than the direct impacts on Ontario itself. In an effort to keep pace with global changes, Ontario will have to limit emissions, conduct research in innovative technology and develop greater awareness of the risk of climate change. refs., tabs., figs

  8. Enhanced science-stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsson, Anna Maria; Anderbrant, Olle; Holmer, Jennie

    2015-01-01

    In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused...... by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science–stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact...... a discussion among the science–stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models....

  9. Distributional Aspects of Climate Change Impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tol, R.S.J. Tol; Kuik, O.J.; Downing, T.; Smith, J.B.

    2003-01-01

    This paper gives a brief review about the state of knowledge on the distributional aspects of climate change impacts. The paper is largely limited to the distribution of impacts between countries (in Section 2). Although there are virtually no estimates reported in the literature, the distribution of impacts within countries is also important. Impact estimates for different sectors (agriculture, health, sea level rise) provides little guidance for estimating differential impacts within countries. It is even harder to find estimates based on social classes. The paper restricts itself to equity about the consequences of climate change. Equity issues about the consequences of emission reduction are ignored here, but should of course be part of a policy analysis. Equity issues about procedures for decision making are also ignored. The paper is organised as follows. Section 2 reviews recent estimates of the regional impacts of climate change. Section 3 discusses alternative ways of aggregating regional impact estimates. Section 4 focusses on the vulnerability of the poor to climate change impacts, both with respect to exposure as well as to their limited capacity for adaptation. Section 5 discusses the impacts of economic development and other dynamic changes on vulnerability. The paper abstains from a discussion of aggregating climate change impacts over time, partly because the literature on that is too substantial to be reviewed here, and partly because, under virtually all scenarios, the current generation is the poorest and therefore particularly worthy in equity considerations. In Section 6 we present salient conclusions

  10. A changing climate: impacts on human exposures to O3 using ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Predicting the impacts of changing climate on human exposure to air pollution requires future scenarios that account for changes in ambient pollutant concentrations, population sizes and distributions, and housing stocks. An integrated methodology to model changes in human exposures due to these impacts was developed by linking climate, air quality, land-use, and human exposure models. This methodology was then applied to characterize changes in predicted human exposures to O3 under multiple future scenarios. Regional climate projections for the U.S. were developed by downscaling global circulation model (GCM) scenarios for three of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The regional climate results were in turn used to generate air quality (concentration) projections using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. For each of the climate change scenarios, future U.S. census-tract level population distributions from the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) model for four future scenarios based on the IPCC’s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) storylines were used. These climate, air quality, and population projections were used as inputs to EPA’s Air Pollutants Exposure (APEX) model for 12 U.S. cities. Probability density functions show changes in the population distribution of 8 h maximum daily O3 exposur

  11. Global late Quaternary megafauna extinctions linked to humans, not climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandom, Christopher James; Faurby, Søren; Sandel, Brody Steven

    2014-01-01

    by glacial–interglacial climate change and humans. We show that the severity of extinction is strongly tied to hominin palaeobiogeography, with at most a weak, Eurasia-specific link to climate change. This first species-level macroscale analysis at relatively high geographical resolution provides strong...

  12. Linked Open Data in the Global Change Information System (GCIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmes, Curt A.

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Global Change Research Program (http://globalchange.gov) coordinates and integrates federal research on changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP is developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will centralize access to data and information related to global change across the U.S. federal government. The first implementation will focus on the 2013 National Climate Assessment (NCA) . (http://assessment.globalchange.gov) The NCA integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the USGCRP; analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. The NCA has received over 500 distinct technical inputs to the process, many of which are reports distilling and synthesizing even more information, coming from thousands of individuals around the federal, state and local governments, academic institutions and non-governmental organizations. The GCIS will present a web-based version of the NCA including annotations linking the findings and content of the NCA with the scientific research, datasets, models, observations, etc. that led to its conclusions. It will use semantic tagging and a linked data approach, assigning globally unique, persistent, resolvable identifiers to all of the related entities and capturing and presenting the relationships between them, both internally and referencing out to other linked data sources and back to agency data centers. The developing W3C PROV Data Model and ontology will be used to capture the provenance trail and present it in both human readable web pages and machine readable formats such as RDF and SPARQL. This will improve visibility into the assessment process, increase

  13. Fisheries: climate change impacts and adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    The report entitled Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation : A Canadian Perspective, presents a summary of research regarding the impacts of climate change on key sectors over the past five years as it relates to Canada. This chapter on fisheries focuses on the impact of climate change on Canada's marine and freshwater fisheries, and the role of adaptation in reducing the vulnerability of the sector. Canadian fisheries encompass the Atlantic, Pacific and Arctic oceans as well as freshwater systems. Fish health, productivity and distribution is strongly influenced by climatic factors such as air and water temperature, precipitation and wind. Most fish species have a distinct set of environmental conditions for optimal growth and survival. If the conditions change in response to changing climate, the fish may be affected. Some of the impacts include reduced growth, increased competition, a shift in species distribution, greater susceptibility to disease, and altered ecosystem function. Studies show that in some areas, fisheries may already be experiencing the effect of climate change. Recommendations were suggested on how to deal with the impacts associated with climate change in sensitive environments. It was noted that actions taken in the fisheries sector will have implications for the water resources, transportation, tourism and human health sectors. 103 refs., 2 tabs., 6 figs

  14. Climatic change impacts in Lombardia region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fiorese, G.; Gatto, M.; De Leo, G.

    2008-01-01

    Climatic change will change significantly our Country through impacts of natural and physical systems, on human health and the productive sectors. This article describes the expected impacts in Lombardia region [it

  15. Compounding Impacts of Human-Induced Water Stress and Climate Change on Water Availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehran, Ali; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; Stewardson, Michael J.; Peel, Murray C.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Wada, Yoshihide; Ravalico, Jakin K.

    2017-01-01

    The terrestrial phase of the water cycle can be seriously impacted by water management and human water use behavior (e.g., reservoir operation, and irrigation withdrawals). Here we outline a method for assessing water availability in a changing climate, while explicitly considering anthropogenic water demand scenarios and water supply infrastructure designed to cope with climatic extremes. The framework brings a top-down and bottom-up approach to provide localized water assessment based on local water supply infrastructure and projected water demands. When our framework is applied to southeastern Australia we find that, for some combinations of climatic change and water demand, the region could experience water stress similar or worse than the epic Millennium Drought. We show considering only the influence of future climate on water supply, and neglecting future changes in water demand and water storage augmentation might lead to opposing perspectives on future water availability. While human water use can significantly exacerbate climate change impacts on water availability, if managed well, it allows societies to react and adapt to a changing climate. The methodology we present offers a unique avenue for linking climatic and hydrologic processes to water resource supply and demand management and other human interactions.

  16. Climate change in the Alps: impacts and natural risks. ONERC's Technical Report N.1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    Mountain ranges are very sensitive to climatic variations. The impacts of climate change on theses territories can be various, from the modification of the biodiversity to the permafrost melting and the evolution of natural hazards. The assessment of temperature rise and its impacts on mountains constitutes an important issue considering the strong uncertainties and the specific sensitivity linked to these areas. The territorial manager - policy makers and technicians - have to deal with this questioning for the implementation of short term actions as well as for strategic choices in terms of land planning and spatial development. This is why 22 public institutions from seven Alpine countries were involved in the European ClimChAlp project. The ONERC participated actively to this project in collaboration with the Rhone-Alpes Region and the Pole Grenoblois Risques Naturels. This report is based on the synthesis realised by the French partners to propose a common base of knowledge about climate change and its impacts in the Alps. (authors)

  17. Climate change - the impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reysset, Bertrand; Billes-Garabedian, Laurent; Henique, Julien; Pascal, Mathilde; Pirard, Philippe; Motreff, Yvon; Barbault, Robert; Weber, Jacques; Gate, Philippe; Salagnac, Jean-Luc; Desplat, Julien; Kounkou-Arnaud, Raphaelle

    2012-01-01

    This special dossier about the impacts of climate change is made of 6 contributions dealing with: the mitigation of climate effects and how to deal with them (Bertrand Reysset); how to dare and transmit (Laurent Billes-Garabedian); littoral risks, the Pas-de-Calais example (Julien Henique); extreme meteorological events and health impacts (Mathilde Pascal, Philippe Pirard, Yvon Motreff); Biodiversity and climate: the janus of global change (Robert Barbault, Jacques Weber); adapting agriculture to dryness and temperatures (Philippe Gate); Paris and the future heats of the year 2100 (Jean-Luc Salagnac, Julien Desplat, Raphaelle Kounkou-Arnaud)

  18. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON EU AGRICULTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shailesh Shrestha

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The current paper investigates the medium term economic impact of climate changes on the EU agriculture. The yield change data under climate change scenarios are taken from the BIOMA (Biophysical Models Application simulation environment. We employ CAPRI modelling framework to identify the EU aggregate economic effects as well as regional impacts. We take into account supply and market price adjustments of the EU agricultural sector as well as technical adaptation of crops to climate change. Overall results indicate an increase in yields and production level in the EU agricultural sector due to the climate change. In general, there are relatively small effects at the EU aggregate. For example, the value of land use and welfare change by approximately between -2% and 0.2%. However, there is a stronger impact at regional level with some stronger effects prevailing particularly in the Central and Northern EU and smaller impacts are observed in Southern Europe. Regional impacts of climate change vary by a factor higher up to 10 relative to the aggregate EU impacts. The price adjustments reduce the response of agricultural sector to climate change in particular with respect to production and income changes. The technical adaption of crops to climate change may result in a change production and land use by a factor between 1.4 and 6 relative to no-adaptation situation.

  19. Impact assessment of coastal hazards due to future changes of tropical cyclones in the North Pacific Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuhito Mori

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones generate severe hazards in the middle latitudes. A brief review and applications of dynamical and statistical downscaling of tropical cyclone (TC are described targeting extreme storm surge and storm wave hazard assessment. First, a review of the current understanding of the changes in the characteristics of TCs in the past and in the future is shown. Then, a review and ongoing research about impact assessment of tropical cyclones both dynamical downscaling and statistical model are described for Typhoon Vera in 1959 and Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Finally, several examples of impact assessment of storm surge and extreme wave changes are presented. Changes in both TC intensity and track are linked to future changes in extreme storm surge and wave climate in middle latitude.

  20. Characterizing the impact of projected changes in climate and air quality on human exposures to ozone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dionisio, Kathie L; Nolte, Christopher G; Spero, Tanya L; Graham, Stephen; Caraway, Nina; Foley, Kristen M; Isaacs, Kristin K

    2017-05-01

    The impact of climate change on human and environmental health is of critical concern. Population exposures to air pollutants both indoors and outdoors are influenced by a wide range of air quality, meteorological, behavioral, and housing-related factors, many of which are also impacted by climate change. An integrated methodology for modeling changes in human exposures to tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) owing to potential future changes in climate and demographics was implemented by linking existing modeling tools for climate, weather, air quality, population distribution, and human exposure. Human exposure results from the Air Pollutants Exposure Model (APEX) for 12 US cities show differences in daily maximum 8-h (DM8H) exposure patterns and levels by sex, age, and city for all scenarios. When climate is held constant and population demographics are varied, minimal difference in O 3 exposures is predicted even with the most extreme demographic change scenario. In contrast, when population is held constant, we see evidence of substantial changes in O 3 exposure for the most extreme change in climate. Similarly, we see increases in the percentage of the population in each city with at least one O 3 exposure exceedance above 60 p.p.b and 70 p.p.b thresholds for future changes in climate. For these climate and population scenarios, the impact of projected changes in climate and air quality on human exposure to O 3 are much larger than the impacts of changing demographics. These results indicate the potential for future changes in O 3 exposure as a result of changes in climate that could impact human health.

  1. TESTING THE LINK BETWEEN TERRESTRIAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND GALACTIC SPIRAL ARM TRANSIT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Overholt, Andrew C.; Melott, Adrian L.; Pohl, Martin

    2009-01-01

    We re-examine past suggestions of a close link between terrestrial climate change and the Sun's transit of spiral arms in its path through the Milky Way galaxy. These links produced concrete fits, deriving the unknown spiral pattern speed from terrestrial climate correlations. We test these fits against new data on spiral structure based on CO data that do not make simplifying assumptions about symmetry and circular rotation. If we compare the times of these transits with changes in the climate of Earth, the claimed correlations not only disappear, but we also find that they cannot be resurrected for any reasonable pattern speed.

  2. Adaptation Finance: Linking Research, Policy, and Business | CRDI ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Adaptation Finance: Linking Research, Policy, and Business. This project will train up to 36 emerging climate change leaders in the field of adaptation finance, which funds efforts to adapt to climate change impacts. The goal is to bring together participants from research, policy, and private sector backgrounds to equip them ...

  3. Advancing Research Methods to Detect Impact of Climate Change on Health in Grand'Anse, Haiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnhart, S.; Coq, R. N.; Frederic, R.; DeRiel, E.; Camara, H.; Barnhart, K. R.

    2013-12-01

    Haiti is considered particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, but directly linking climate change to health effects is limited by the lack of robust data and the multiple determinants of health. Worsening storms and rising temperatures in this rugged country with high poverty is likely to adversely affect economic activity, population growth and other determinants of health. For the past two years, the Univ. of Washington has supported the public hospital in the department of Grand'Anse. Grand'Anse, a relatively contained region in SW Haiti with an area of 11,912 km2, is predominantly rural with a population of 350,000 and is bounded to the south by peaks up to 2,347 m. Grand'Anse would serve as an excellent site to assess the interface between climate change and health. The Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) shows health status is low relative to other countries. Estimates of climate change for Jeremie, the largest city in Grand'Anse, predict the mean monthly temperature will increase from 26.1 to 27.3 oC while mean monthly rainfall will decrease from 80.5 to 73.5 mm over the next 60 years. The potential impact of these changes ranges from threatening food security to greater mortality. Use of available secondary data such as indicators of climate change and DHS health status are not likely to offer sufficient resolution to detect positive or negative impacts of climate change on health. How might a mixed methods approach incorporating secondary data and quantitative and qualitative survey data on climate, economic activity, health and determinants of health address the hypothesis: Climate change does not adversely affect health? For example, in Haiti most women deliver at home. Maternal mortality is high at 350 deaths/100,000 deliveries. This compares to deliveries in facilities where the median rate is less than 100/100,000. Thus, maternal mortality is closely linked to access to health care in this rugged mountainous country. Climate change

  4. Air Pollution and Climate Change Health Impact Assessment. The ACHIA Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinney, P.L.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change may affect human health via interactions with air pollutants such as ozone and PM 2.5 . These air pollutants are linked to climate because they can be both affected by and have effects on climate. In coming decades, substantial, cost-effective improvements in public health may be achieved with well-planned strategies to mitigate climate impacts while also reducing health effects of ozone and PM 2.5 . Climate mitigation actions affect greenhouse pollutant emissions, including methane and black carbon, but also may affect other key air pollution precursors such as NOx, CO, and SOx. To better understand the potential of such strategies, studies are needed that assess possible future health impacts under alternative assumptions about future emissions and climate across multiple spatial scales. The overall objective of this project is to apply state of the art climate, air quality, and health modelling tools to assess future health impacts of ozone and PM 2.5 under different IPCCs scenario of climate change, focusing specifically on pollution-related health co-benefits which could be achieved under alternative climate mitigation pathways in the period 2030-2050. This question will be explored at three spatial scales: global, regional (Europe), and urban (Paris). ACHIA is comprised of an integrated set of four work packages: WP1. Global Climate and Air Pollution Impacts of Alternative Emissions Pathways; WP2. Climate and Air Quality at Regional and Urban Scales: Results for Europe and Paris; WP3. Health Impact Assessment; WP4. Dissemination, Evaluation, Management. ACHIA is designed to create an interdisciplinary approach to the impacts of climate change on health through air quality changes, and to start longer-term collaborations between communities. We expect the project to advance state of art across all WPs, with important implications for research groups around the world. A particular innovation of the project is the multi-scale aspect, i.e., the

  5. Environmental impact of climate change in pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, S.; Raja, I.A.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change results in the increase or decrease in temperature and rainfall. These have significant impact on environment - impinge agricultural crop yields, affect human health, cause changes to forests and other ecosystems, and even impact our energy supply. Climate change is a global phenomenon and its impact can be observed on Pakistan's economy and environment. This paper contains details concerning the climate change and environmental impacts. It takes into account current and projected key vulnerabilities, prospects for adaptation, and the relationships between climate change mitigation and environment. The purpose of the study is to devise national policies and incentive systems combined with national level capacity-building programs to encourage demand-oriented conservation technologies. Recommendations are also made to abate the climate change related issues in country. (author)

  6. Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Enriquez-de-Salamanca, Alvaro; Diaz Sierra, R.; Martin-Aranda, Rosa; Ferreira Dos Santos, M.J.

    Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship

  7. An explorative analysis of the links between learning behavior and change orientation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sluis, van der E.C. (Lidewey); Caluwé, L.I.A.; Nistelrooij, van A.T.M.

    2005-01-01

    The article presents an explorative study on the links between learning behavior and change orientation of individuals. When reading literature on how to develop employees and organizations, it strikes one how less focus there is on learning and change needs of individuals. This paper deals with

  8. Common species link global ecosystems to climate change: dynamical evidence in the planktonic fossil record.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannisdal, Bjarte; Haaga, Kristian Agasøster; Reitan, Trond; Diego, David; Liow, Lee Hsiang

    2017-07-12

    Common species shape the world around us, and changes in their commonness signify large-scale shifts in ecosystem structure and function. However, our understanding of long-term ecosystem response to environmental forcing in the deep past is centred on species richness, neglecting the disproportional impact of common species. Here, we use common and widespread species of planktonic foraminifera in deep-sea sediments to track changes in observed global occupancy (proportion of sampled sites at which a species is present and observed) through the turbulent climatic history of the last 65 Myr. Our approach is sensitive to relative changes in global abundance of the species set and robust to factors that bias richness estimators. Using three independent methods for detecting causality, we show that the observed global occupancy of planktonic foraminifera has been dynamically coupled to past oceanographic changes captured in deep-ocean temperature reconstructions. The causal inference does not imply a direct mechanism, but is consistent with an indirect, time-delayed causal linkage. Given the strong quantitative evidence that a dynamical coupling exists, we hypothesize that mixotrophy (symbiont hosting) may be an ecological factor linking the global abundance of planktonic foraminifera to long-term climate changes via the relative extent of oligotrophic oceans. © 2017 The Authors.

  9. Climate Change Impacts on Water Availability and Use in the Limpopo River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tingju Zhu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the effects of climate change on water availability and use in the Limpopo River Basin of Southern Africa, using a linked modeling system consisting of a semi-distributed global hydrological model and the Water Simulation Module (WSM of the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT. Although the WSM simulates all major water use sectors, the focus of this study is to evaluate the implications of climate change on irrigation water supply in the catchments of the Limpopo River Basin within the four riparian countries: Botswana, Mozambique, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. The analysis found that water resources of the Limpopo River Basin are already stressed under today’s climate conditions. Projected water infrastructure and management interventions are expected to improve the situation by 2050 if current climate conditions continue into the future. However, under the climate change scenarios studied here, water supply availability is expected to worsen considerably by 2050. Assessing hydrological impacts of climate change is crucial given that expansion of irrigated areas has been postulated as a key adaptation strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa. Such expansion will need to take into account future changes in water availability in African river basins.

  10. Knowledge and perceptions about the health impact of climate change among health sciences students in Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nigatu, Andualem S; Asamoah, Benedict O; Kloos, Helmut

    2014-06-11

    Climate change affects human health in various ways. Health planners and policy makers are increasingly addressing potential health impacts of climate change. Ethiopia is vulnerable to these impacts. Assessing students' knowledge, understanding and perception about the health impact of climate change may promote educational endeavors to increase awareness of health impacts linked to climate change and to facilitate interventions. A cross-sectional study using a questionnaire was carried out among the health science students at Haramaya University. Quantitative methods were used to analyze the results. Over three quarters of the students were aware of health consequences of climate change, with slightly higher rates in females than males and a range from 60.7% (pharmacy students) to 100% (environmental health and post-graduate public health students). Electronic mass media was reportedly the major source of information but almost all (87.7%) students stated that their knowledge was insufficient to fully understand the public health impacts of climate change. Students who knew about climate change were more likely to perceive it as a serious health threat than those who were unaware of these impacts [OR: 17.8, 95% CI: 8.8-32.1] and also considered their departments to be concerned about climate change (OR: 7.3, 95% CI: 2.8-18.8), a perception that was also significantly more common among students who obtained their information from the electronic mass media and schools (p health impacts of climate change. Health sciences students at Haramaya University may benefit from a more comprehensive curriculum on climate change and its impacts on health.

  11. Intra-Campaign Changes in Voting Preferences: The Impact of Media and Party Communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johann, David; Königslöw, Katharina Kleinen-von; Kritzinger, Sylvia; Thomas, Kathrin

    2018-01-01

    An increasing number of citizens change and adapt their party preferences during the electoral campaign. We analyze which short-term factors explain intra-campaign changes in voting preferences, focusing on the visibility and tone of news media reporting and party canvassing. Our analyses rely on an integrative data approach, linking data from media content analysis to public opinion data. This enables us to investigate the relative impact of news media reporting as well as party communication. Inherently, we overcome previously identified methodological problems in the study of communication effects on voting behavior. Our findings reveal that campaigns matter: Especially interpersonal party canvassing increases voters’ likelihood to change their voting preferences in favor of the respective party, whereas media effects are limited to quality news outlets and depend on individual voters’ party ambivalence.

  12. Intra-Campaign Changes in Voting Preferences: The Impact of Media and Party Communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johann, David; Königslöw, Katharina Kleinen-von; Kritzinger, Sylvia; Thomas, Kathrin

    2018-01-01

    An increasing number of citizens change and adapt their party preferences during the electoral campaign. We analyze which short-term factors explain intra-campaign changes in voting preferences, focusing on the visibility and tone of news media reporting and party canvassing. Our analyses rely on an integrative data approach, linking data from media content analysis to public opinion data. This enables us to investigate the relative impact of news media reporting as well as party communication. Inherently, we overcome previously identified methodological problems in the study of communication effects on voting behavior. Our findings reveal that campaigns matter: Especially interpersonal party canvassing increases voters' likelihood to change their voting preferences in favor of the respective party, whereas media effects are limited to quality news outlets and depend on individual voters' party ambivalence.

  13. The impact of social media on recruitment: Are you LinkedIn?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanja Koch

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: With many organisations vying for the same talent, it is important to ensure that the correct methods are utilised in identifying and attracting the best talent to an organisation. Research purpose: This research investigates the impact of social media on the recruitment process in South Africa. Motivation for the study: As the competition for qualified talent increases, organisations need to understand where to focus their resources to attract the best talent possible. The use of social media is growing daily and its use in the recruitment process seems to have grown exponentially. Research design, approach and method: The sample comprised 12 recruiters, spanning a wide range of industries in South Africa. Semi-structured interviews were conducted and a thematic analysis was utilised to identify themes and subthemes. Main findings: Despite still utilising some traditional methods of recruiting, South African recruiters follow their international counterparts, with LinkedIn being central to their respective recruitment processes. The use of Twitter and Facebook for recruitment was found to be substantially lower in South Africa than elsewhere. Without following a focused approach, the volume of work that emanates from using social media may overwhelm a recruiter. Practical and managerial implications: Recruiters cannot execute effective recruitment without applying social media tools such as LinkedIn. However, training in the optimal use of social media is essential. Contribution: This study indicates that LinkedIn has a major impact on recruitment in South Africa, but that social media is not a panacea for recruitment issues.

  14. Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Mondal

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.

  15. Communities under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

  16. Conceptual Model of Climate Change Impacts at LANL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dewart, Jean Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-17

    Goal 9 of the LANL FY15 Site Sustainability Plan (LANL 2014a) addresses Climate Change Adaptation. As part of Goal 9, the plan reviews many of the individual programs the Laboratory has initiated over the past 20 years to address climate change impacts to LANL (e.g. Wildland Fire Management Plan, Forest Management Plan, etc.). However, at that time, LANL did not yet have a comprehensive approach to climate change adaptation. To fill this gap, the FY15 Work Plan for the LANL Long Term Strategy for Environmental Stewardship and Sustainability (LANL 2015) included a goal of (1) establishing a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts at LANL and (2) establishing specific climate change indices to measure climate change and impacts at Los Alamos. Establishing a conceptual model of climate change impacts will demonstrate that the Laboratory is addressing climate change impacts in a comprehensive manner. This paper fulfills the requirement of goal 1. The establishment of specific indices of climate change at Los Alamos (goal 2), will improve our ability to determine climate change vulnerabilities and assess risk. Future work will include prioritizing risks, evaluating options/technologies/costs, and where appropriate, taking actions. To develop a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts, we selected the framework provided in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Resilience Toolkit (http://toolkit.climate.gov/).

  17. Integrated regional assessment of global climatic change. Lessons from the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, Stewart J.

    1996-01-01

    This paper outlines the potential role integrated regional assessments of global climatic change scenarios could play in building better links between science and related policy concerns. The concept is illustrated through description of an ongoing case study from Canada-the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS). As part of the Government of Canada's Green Plan, the Global Warming Science Program includes a study of regional impacts of global warming scenarios in the Mackenzie Basin, located in northwestern Canada. The MBIS is a six-year program focussing on potential climate-induced changes in the land and water resource base, and the implications of four scenarios of global climatic change on land use and economic policies in this region. These policy issues include interjurisdictional water management, sustainability of native lifestyles, economic development opportunities (agriculture, forestry, tourism, etc.), sustainability of ecosystems and infrastructure maintenance. MBIS is due to be completed in 1997. MBIS represents an attempt to address regional impacts by incorporating a 'family of integrators' into the study framework, and by directly involving stakeholders in planning and research activities. The experience in organizing and carrying out this project may provide some lessons for others interested in organizing regional or country studies

  18. Diet change and food loss reduction: What is their combined impact on global water use and scarcity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jalava, Mika; Guillaume, Joseph H. A.; Kummu, Matti; Porkka, Miina; Siebert, Stefan; Varis, Olli

    2016-03-01

    There is a pressing need to improve food security and reduce environmental impacts of agricultural production globally. Two of the proposed measures are diet change from animal-based to plant-based foodstuffs and reduction of food losses and waste. These two measures are linked, as diet change affects production and consumption of foodstuffs and consequently loss processes through their different water footprints and loss percentages. This paper takes this link into account for the first time and provides an assessment of the combined potential contribution of diet change and food loss reduction for reducing water footprints and water scarcity. We apply scenarios in which we change diets to follow basic dietary recommendations, limit animal-based protein intake to 25% of total protein intake, and halve food losses to study single and combined effects of diet change and loss reduction. Dietary recommendations alone would achieve 6% and 7% reductions of blue and green water consumption, respectively, while changing diets to contain less animal products would result in savings of 11% and 18%, respectively. Halving food loss would alone achieve 12% reductions for both blue and green water. Combining the measures would reduce water consumption by 23% and 28%, respectively, lowering water scarcity in areas with a population of over 600 million. At a global scale, effects of diet change and loss reduction were synergistic with loss reductions being more effective under changed diet. This demonstrates the importance of considering the link between diet change and loss reduction in assessments of food security and resource use.

  19. Climate change impacts on forest fires: the stakeholders' perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannakopoulos, C.; Roussos, A.; Karali, A.; Hatzaki, M.; Xanthopoulos, G.; Chatzinikos, E.; Fyllas, N.; Georgiades, N.; Karetsos, G.; Maheras, G.; Nikolaou, I.; Proutsos, N.; Sbarounis, T.; Tsaggari, K.; Tzamtzis, I.; Goodess, C.

    2012-04-01

    In this work, we present a synthesis of the presentations and discussions which arose during a workshop on 'Impacts of climate change on forest fires' held in September 2011 at the National Observatory of Athens, Greece in the framework of EU project CLIMRUN. At first, a general presentation about climate change and extremes in the Greek territory provided the necessary background to the audience and highlighted the need for data and information exchange between scientists and stakeholders through climate services within CLIMRUN. Discussions and presentations that followed linked climate with forest science through the use of a meteorological index for fire risk and future projections of fire danger using regional climate models. The current situation on Greek forests was also presented, as well as future steps that should be taken to ameliorate the situation under a climate change world. A time series analysis of changes in forest fires using available historical data on forest ecosystems in Greece was given in this session. This led to the topic of forest fire risk assessment and fire prevention, stating all actions towards sustainable management of forests and effective mechanisms to control fires under climate change. Options for a smooth adaptation of forests to climate change were discussed together with the lessons learned on practical level on prevention, repression and rehabilitation of forest fires. In between there were useful interventions on sustainable hunting and biodiversity protection and on climate change impacts on forest ecosystems dynamics. The importance of developing an educational program for primary/secondary school students on forest fire management was also highlighted. The perspective of forest stakeholders on climate change and how this change can affect their current or future activities was addressed through a questionnaire they were asked to complete. Results showed that the majority of the participants consider climate variability

  20. Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Neofotis, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Human-influenced climate change is an observed phenomenon affecting physical and biological systems across the globe. The majority of observed impacts are related to temperature changes and are located in the northern high- and midlatitudes. However, new evidence is emerging that demonstrates that impacts are related to precipitation changes as well as temperature, and that climate change is impacting systems and sectors beyond the Northern Hemisphere. In this paper, we highlight some of this new evidence-focusing on regions and sectors that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) noted as under-represented-in the context of observed climate change impacts, direct and indirect drivers of change (including carbon dioxide itself), and methods of detection. We also present methods and studies attributing observed impacts to anthropogenic forcing. We argue that the expansion of methods of detection (in terms of a broader array of climate variables and data sources, inclusion of the major modes of climate variability, and incorporation of other drivers of change) is key to discerning the climate sensitivities of sectors and systems in regions where the impacts of climate change currently remain elusive. Attributing such changes to human forcing of the climate system, where possible, is important for development of effective mitigation and adaptation. Current challenges in documenting adaptation and the role of indigenous knowledge in detection and attribution are described.

  1. Reduced arctic tundra productivity linked with landform and climate change interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lara, Mark J.; Nitze, Ingmar; Grosse, Guido; Martin, Philip; McGuire, A. David

    2018-01-01

    Arctic tundra ecosystems have experienced unprecedented change associated with climate warming over recent decades. Across the Pan-Arctic, vegetation productivity and surface greenness have trended positively over the period of satellite observation. However, since 2011 these trends have slowed considerably, showing signs of browning in many regions. It is unclear what factors are driving this change and which regions/landforms will be most sensitive to future browning. Here we provide evidence linking decadal patterns in arctic greening and browning with regional climate change and local permafrost-driven landscape heterogeneity. We analyzed the spatial variability of decadal-scale trends in surface greenness across the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska (~60,000 km²) using the Landsat archive (1999–2014), in combination with novel 30 m classifications of polygonal tundra and regional watersheds, finding landscape heterogeneity and regional climate change to be the most important factors controlling historical greenness trends. Browning was linked to increased temperature and precipitation, with the exception of young landforms (developed following lake drainage), which will likely continue to green. Spatiotemporal model forecasting suggests carbon uptake potential to be reduced in response to warmer and/or wetter climatic conditions, potentially increasing the net loss of carbon to the atmosphere, at a greater degree than previously expected.

  2. Climate change and anthropogenic impacts on marine ecosystems and countermeasures in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nian-Zhi Jiao

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystems of China seas and coasts are undergoing rapid changes under the strong influences of both global climate change and anthropogenic activities. To understand the scope of these changes and the mechanisms behind them is of paramount importance for the sustainable development of China, and for the establishment of national policies on environment protection and climate change mitigation. Here we provide a brief review of the impacts of global climate change and human activities on the oceans in general, and on the ecosystems of China seas and coasts in particular. More importantly, we discuss the challenges we are facing and propose several research foci for China seas/coasts ecosystem studies, including long-term time series observations on multiple scales, facilities for simulation study, blue carbon, coastal ecological security, prediction of ecosystem evolution and ecosystem-based management. We also establish a link to the Future Earth program from the perspectives of two newly formed national alliances, the China Future Ocean Alliance and the Pan-China Ocean Carbon Alliance.

  3. Impacts of climate change in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bresser, A.H.M.; Berk, M.M.; Van den Born, G.J.; Van Bree, L.; Van Gaalen, F.W.; Ligtvoet, W.; Van Minnen, J.G.; Witmer, M.C.H.

    2005-10-01

    The main conclusion of the study on the title subject is that the impacts of climatic change in the Netherlands are still limited. However, the impacts will be stronger in the next decades and will be even problematic at the end of this century. In this book an overview is given of probable changes in the climate for the Netherlands, danger for flooding in specific areas of the Netherlands, changes of the nature, impacts for agriculture, tourism and recreation, and industry and businesses, and risks for public health [nl

  4. Climate change impact assessment in Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part II: a spatially resolved regional risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Rizzi, J; Zabeo, A; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impact assessment on water resources has received high international attention over the last two decades, due to the observed global warming and its consequences at the global to local scale. In particular, climate-related risks for groundwater and related ecosystems pose a great concern to scientists and water authorities involved in the protection of these valuable resources. The close link of global warming with water cycle alterations encourages research to deepen current knowledge on relationships between climate trends and status of water systems, and to develop predictive tools for their sustainable management, copying with key principles of EU water policy. Within the European project Life+ TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groundwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change), a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed in order to identify impacts from climate change on groundwater and associated ecosystems (e.g. surface waters, agricultural areas, natural environments) and to rank areas and receptors at risk in the high and middle Veneto and Friuli Plain (Italy). Based on an integrated analysis of impacts, vulnerability and risks linked to climate change at the regional scale, a RRA framework complying with the Sources-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) approach was defined. Relevant impacts on groundwater and surface waters (i.e. groundwater level variations, changes in nitrate infiltration processes, changes in water availability for irrigation) were selected and analyzed through hazard scenario, exposure, susceptibility and risk assessment. The RRA methodology used hazard scenarios constructed through global and high resolution model simulations for the 2071-2100 period, according to IPCC A1B emission scenario in order to produce useful indications for future risk prioritization and to support the addressing of adaptation measures, primarily Managed Artificial Recharge (MAR) techniques. Relevant

  5. The Impact of Educational Mismatch on Firm Productivity: Evidence from Linked Panel Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kampelmann, Stephan; Rycx, Francois

    2012-01-01

    We provide first evidence regarding the direct impact of educational mismatch on firm productivity. To do so, we rely on representative linked employer-employee panel data for Belgium covering the period 1999-2006. Controlling for simultaneity issues, time-invariant unobserved workplace characteristics, cohort effects and dynamics in the…

  6. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karl, T. R.

    2009-12-01

    This past year the US Global Change Research Program released a report that summarized the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. The report underscores the importance of measures to reduce climate change. In the context of impacts, the report identifies examples of actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change. This state-of-knowledge report also identifies areas in which scientific uncertainty limits our ability to estimate future climate changes and its impacts. Key findings of the report include: (1) Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human induced. - This statement is stronger than the IPCC (2007) statement because new attribution studies since that report continue to implicate human caused changes over the past 50 years. (2) Climate Changes are underway in the Unites States and are projected to grow. - These include increases in heavy downpours, rising temperature and sea level, rapidly retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, lengthening growing seasons lengthening ice-free seasons in the oceans and on lakes and rivers, earlier snowmelt and alteration in river flows. (3) Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase. - The impacts vary from region to region, but are already affecting many sectors e.g., water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, etc. (4) Climate change will stress water resources. - Water is an issue in every region of the US, but the nature of the impacts vary (5) Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged. - Warming related to high emission scenarios often negatively affect crop growth and yields levels. Increased pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crops and livestock production. (6) Coastal areas are at increased risk from

  7. European information on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jol, A.; Isoard, S.

    2010-09-01

    development in 2010 and is likely to manage the system after 2011. The European Commission in its Communication in 2009 on disaster risk prevention also calls for improving and better sharing of data on disasters, disaster risk mapping and disaster risk management, in the context of the EU civil protection mechanism. Such information might also be linked to the planned EU Clearinghouse on climate change adaptation. The activities of EEA on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation (including disaster risk reduction) include indicators of the impacts of climate change; a regularly updated overview of national assessments and adaptation plans on the EEA web site and specific focused reports, e.g. on adaptation to the challenges of changing water resources in the Alps (2009) and on analysis of past trends in natural disasters (due in 2010) and regular expert meetings and workshops with EEA member countries. The ECAC presentation will include the latest developments in the EU Clearinghouse on adaptation and progress in relevant EEA activities.

  8. Impact of Packet Sampling on Link Dimensioning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schmidt, R.D.O.; Sadre, R.; Sperotto, A.; Berg, H. van den; Pras, A.

    2015-01-01

    Link dimensioning is used by network operators to properly provision the capacity of their network links. Proposed methods for link dimensioning often require statistics, such as traffic variance, that need to be calculated from packet-level measurements. In practice, due to increasing traffic

  9. Impact of packet sampling on link dimensioning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Oliveira Schmidt, R.; Stadler, R.; Sadre, R.; Sperotto, Anna; van den Berg, Hans Leo; Pras, Aiko

    Link dimensioning is used by network operators to properly provision the capacity of their network links. Proposed methods for link dimensioning often require statistics, such as traffic variance, that need to be calculated from packet-level measurements. In practice, due to increasing traffic

  10. Climate Change Impacts on the Congo Basin Region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ludwig, F.; Franssen, W.; Jans, W.W.P.; Kruijt, B.; Supit, I.

    2012-01-01

    This report presents analyses of climate change impacts in the Congo Basin on water for agriculture and hydropower, forest ecosystem functioning and carbon storage and impacts of climate variability and change on future economic development. To quantify the impacts of future climate we developed a

  11. Biogeochemical analysis of ancient Pacific Cod bone suggests Hg bioaccumulation was linked to paleo sea level rise and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maribeth S. Murray

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Deglaciation at the end of the Pleistocene initiated major changes in ocean circulation and distribution. Within a brief geological time, large areas of land were inundated by sea-level rise and today global sea level is 120 m above its minimum stand during the last glacial maximum. This was the era of modern sea shelf formation; climate change caused coastal plain flooding and created broad continental shelves with innumerable consequences to marine and terrestrial ecosystems and human populations. In Alaska, the Bering Sea nearly doubled in size and stretches of coastline to the south were flooded, with regional variability in the timing and extent of submergence. Here we suggest how past climate change and coastal flooding are linked to mercury bioaccumulation that could have had profound impacts on past human populations and that, under conditions of continued climate warming, may have future impacts. Biogeochemical analysis of total mercury (tHg and 13C/15N ratios in the bone collagen of archaeologically recovered Pacific Cod (Gadus macrocephalus bone shows high levels of tHg during early/mid-Holocene. This pattern cannot be linked to anthropogenic activity or to food web trophic changes, but may result from natural phenomena such as increases in productivity, carbon supply and coastal flooding driven by glacial melting and sea-level rise. The coastal flooding could have led to increased methylation of Hg in newly submerged terrestrial land and vegetation. Methylmercury is bioaccumulated through aquatic food webs with attendant consequences for the health of fish and their consumers, including people. This is the first study of tHg levels in a marine species from the Gulf of Alaska to provide a time series spanning nearly the entire Holocene and we propose that past coastal flooding resulting from climate change had the potential to input significant quantities of Hg into marine food webs and subsequently to human consumers.

  12. An Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, K. S.

    2009-09-01

    National economy and life of millions of poor largely related to climate sensitive natural resource base and a densely populated 7500 Km long low-lying coastline make India highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Significant changes in the amount, intensity and seasonality of rainfall and extremes in temperature observed in different states are serious challenges to the securities in food, water and energy. Vagaries in monsoons and associated setbacks in agriculture that represents 35% GDP affect economy and rural life, leading to social issues like migration and spread of terrorism. Impact on forest affects the biodiversity, economy and life of tribals. Water availability in certain states has been falling sharply due to the changes in the amount as well as the seasonality of rainfall. Increase in rainfall intensity erodes topsoil in the Western Ghats Mountain and reduces the streamflow and reservoir capacity. Retreat of the Himalayan glaciers may add to the severity of hydrological extremes in the entire north India in the coming years. Irregular onset of monsoon and change in seasonality have already affected the plant biodiversity in the southern state of Kerala. Some seasonal plants became extinct because of the prolonged dry season. Almost all parts of India are increasingly becoming prone to floods or droughts. Drylands are potentially threatened by desertification. Changes in the frequency, intensity and track of cyclones and rising sea level are of serious concern in the coastal zones. Decreasing trend in fish catch in the southern coasts is linked to the changes in coastal circulation, SST and upwelling patterns. Coral environments also suffer from this. Cold waves and heat waves are becoming severe, extending to new regions and resulting in casualties. New viruses and vectors spread fatal deceases, expanding geographical extent. Climate change is likely to retard the present economic growth, because of the massive investment required for

  13. Integrated Modelling on Flow and Water Quality Under the Impacts of Climate Change and Agricultural Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    SHI, J.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on flooding in the UK, inducing more intense and prolonged storms. Frequent flooding due to climate change already exacerbates catchment water quality. Land use is another contributing factor to poor water quality. For example, the move to intensive farming could cause an increase in faecal coliforms entering the water courses. In an effort to understand better the effects on water quality from land use and climate change, the hydrological and estuarine processes are being modelled using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), linked to a 2-D hydrodynamic model DIVAST(Depth Integrated Velocity and Solute Transport). The coupled model is able to quantify how much of each pollutant from the catchment reaches the harbour and the impact on water quality within the harbour. The work is focused on the transportation and decay of faecal coliforms from agricultural runoff into the rivers Frome and Piddle in the UK. The impact from the agricultural land use and activities on the catchment river hydrology and water quality are evaluated. The coupled model calibration and validation showed the good model performance on flow and faecal coliform in the watershed and estuary.

  14. Uncertainties in assessing climate change impacts on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf

    2013-04-01

    There is substantial evidence in historical and recent observations that the Mediterranean and neighboring regions are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Numerous climate projections, stemming from ensembles of global and regional climate models, agree on severe changes in the climate forcing which are likely to exacerbate subsequent ecological, economic and social impacts. Many of these causal connections are closely linked to the general expectation that water availability will decline in the already water-stressed basins of Africa, the Mediterranean region and the Near East, even though considerable regional variances must be expected. Consequently, climate change impacts on water resources are raising concerns regarding their possible management and security implications. Decreasing access to water resources and other related factors could be a cause or a 'multiplier' of tensions within and between countries. Whether security threats arise from climate impacts or options for cooperation evolve does not depend only on the severity of the impacts themselves, but on social, economic, and institutional vulnerabilities or resilience as well as factors that influence local, national and international relations. However, an assessment of vulnerability and risks hinges on natural, socio-economic, and political conditions and responses, all of which are uncertain. Multidisciplinary research is needed to tackle the multi-facet complexity of climate change impacts on water resources in the Mediterranean and neighboring countries. This is particularly true in a region of overall data scarcity and poor data management and exchange structures. The current potential to develop appropriate regional adaptation measures towards climate change impacts suffers heavily from large uncertainties. These spread along a long chain of components, starting from the definition of emission scenarios to global and regional climate modeling to impact models and a

  15. Linked Climatic, Environmental, and Societal Changes in the Lower Yellow River Area during the Neolithic-Bronze Age Transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, S. Y.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding human-environment interactions during times of large and rapid climatic changes in the second half of the Holocene may deepen our insight into human adaptation and resilience against potential climate anomalies in the future. However, the drivers and societal responses tend to be different from area to area, and the degree and nature of this link are still a matter of debate. Flooding sediments preserved within the cultural stratigraphical context at archaeological sites in the lower Yellow River area may offer an ideal framework for evaluating the association between evolution of Neolithic cultures and climate fluctuations. Here, we present evidence from a mound site for the prevalence of extreme overbank floods during the Neolithic-Bronze Age transition most likely triggered by excessive summer precipitation in the Yellow River valley when prolonged weak El Niño condition prevailed. Repeated flooding during around 4000-3500 cal yr BP substantially modified the floodplain landscape, thereby driving people to disperse to areas dominated by the Erlitou culture and eventually giving rise to a state-level society in central China historiographically identified as the Xia Dynasty. Changes in the drainage network due to repeated flooding also exerted a profound impact on the rice farming-based communities centered in the region of the floods. Our results provide a precise past analogue of the linked climatic, environmental, and societal changes at a time when human societies were evolving into a hierarchy similar to those of today.

  16. Managing the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Gallocanta Basin, NE-Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhn, Nikolaus J; Baumhauer, Roland; Schütt, Brigitta

    2011-02-01

    The Gallocanta Basin represents an environment highly sensitive to climate change. Over the past 60 years, the Laguna de Gallocanta, an ephemeral lake situated in the closed Gallocanta basin, experienced a sequence of wet and dry phases. The lake and its surrounding wetlands are one of only a few bird sanctuaries left in NE-Spain for grey cranes on their annual migration from Scandinavia to northern Africa. Understanding the impact of climate change on basin hydrology is therefore of utmost importance for the appropriate management of the bird sanctuary. Changes in lake level are only weakly linked to annual rainfall, with reaction times between hours and months after rainfall. Both the total amount of rainfall over the reaction period, as well as individual extreme events, affect lake level. In this study the characteristics and frequencies of daily, event, monthly and bi-monthly rainfall over the past 60 years were analysed. The results revealed a clear link between increased frequencies of high magnitude rainfall and phases of water filling in the Laguna de Gallocanta. In the middle of the 20th century, the absolute amount of rainfall appears to have been more important for lake level, while more recently the frequency of high magnitude rainfall has emerged as the dominant variable. In the Gallocanta Basin, climate change and the distinct and continuing land use change since Spain joined the EU in 1986 have created an environment that is in a more or less constant state of transition. This highlights two challenges faced by hydrologists and climatologists involved in developing water management tools for the Gallocanta Basin in particular, but also other areas with sensitive and rapidly changing environments. Hydrologists have to understand the processes and the spatial and temporal patterns of surface-climate interaction in a watershed to assess the impact of climate change on its hydrology. Climatologists, on the other hand, have to develop climate models

  17. The impact of climate change and emissions control on future ozone levels: Implications for human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stowell, Jennifer D; Kim, Young-Min; Gao, Yang; Fu, Joshua S; Chang, Howard H; Liu, Yang

    2017-11-01

    Overwhelming evidence has shown that, from the Industrial Revolution to the present, human activities influence ground-level ozone (O 3 ) concentrations. Past studies demonstrate links between O 3 exposure and health. However, knowledge gaps remain in our understanding concerning the impacts of climate change mitigation policies on O 3 concentrations and health. Using a hybrid downscaling approach, we evaluated the separate impact of climate change and emission control policies on O 3 levels and associated excess mortality in the US in the 2050s under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We show that, by the 2050s, under RCP4.5, increased O 3 levels due to combined climate change and emission control policies, could contribute to an increase of approximately 50 premature deaths annually nationwide in the US. The biggest impact, however, is seen under RCP8.5, where rises in O 3 concentrations are expected to result in over 2,200 additional premature deaths annually. The largest increases in O 3 are seen in RCP8.5 in the Northeast, the Southeast, the Central, and the West regions of the US. Additionally, when O 3 increases are examined by climate change and emissions contributions separately, the benefits of emissions mitigation efforts may significantly outweigh the effects of climate change mitigation policies on O 3 -related mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Riboflavin/UVA Collagen Cross-Linking-Induced Changes in Normal and Keratoconus Corneal Stroma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Sally; Boote, Craig; Kamma-Lorger, Christina S.; Rajan, Madhavan S.; Harris, Jonathan; Dooley, Erin; Hawksworth, Nicholas; Hiller, Jennifer; Terill, Nick J.; Hafezi, Farhad; Brahma, Arun K.; Quantock, Andrew J.; Meek, Keith M.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose To determine the effect of Ultraviolet-A collagen cross-linking with hypo-osmolar and iso-osmolar riboflavin solutions on stromal collagen ultrastructure in normal and keratoconus ex vivo human corneas. Methods Using small-angle X-ray scattering, measurements of collagen D-periodicity, fibril diameter and interfibrillar spacing were made at 1 mm intervals across six normal post-mortem corneas (two above physiological hydration (swollen) and four below (unswollen)) and two post-transplant keratoconus corneal buttons (one swollen; one unswollen), before and after hypo-osmolar cross-linking. The same parameters were measured in three other unswollen normal corneas before and after iso-osmolar cross-linking and in three pairs of swollen normal corneas, in which only the left was cross-linked (with iso-osmolar riboflavin). Results Hypo-osmolar cross-linking resulted in an increase in corneal hydration in all corneas. In the keratoconus corneas and unswollen normal corneas, this was accompanied by an increase in collagen interfibrillar spacing (priboflavin solutions are more likely a consequence of treatment-induced changes in tissue hydration rather than cross-linking. PMID:21850225

  19. Health Impacts in a Changing Climate - An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis, V. R.; Phalkey, R. K.

    2016-05-01

    In the past decades the topic of climate change has been subjected to intense scientific scrutiny, and since the mid-1990's it has become an increasingly political issue. Because of increased temperatures and more frequent and intense extreme weather events, the number of direct injuries and deaths will increase, along with infectious diseases, whether food, water or vector-borne; respiratory and cardiovascular diseases are expected to rise due to worsened air pollution and extreme heat. In a context of on-going environmental degradation, local food-producing systems, both marine and terrestrial, will be affected and the risk of malnutrition, especially in children, will increase. These impacts on health and livelihood are expected to be significant factors in the spread of regional social crises, potentially leading to forced migration, conflicts and increased poverty. The link between health and climate change operates through a variety of pathways that are now well established. In addition to taking climate mitigation measures, it will also be necessary to take adaptation measures, such as strengthening health systems, improving preparedness and developing early warning systems. There is now a broad scientific consensus on the issue and the science is sufficiently robust to enable a coordinated response to meet this global challenge.

  20. The impact of climate change on the European energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowling, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Climate change can affect the economy via many different channels in many different sectors. The POLES global energy model has been modified to widen the coverage of climate change impacts on the European energy system. The impacts considered are changes in heating and cooling demand in the residential and services sector, changes in the efficiency of thermal power plants, and changes in hydro, wind (both on- and off-shore) and solar PV electricity output. Results of the impacts of six scenarios on the European energy system are presented, and the implications for European energy security and energy imports are presented. Main findings include: demand side impacts (heating and cooling in the residential and services sector) are larger than supply side impacts; power generation from fossil-fuel and nuclear sources decreases and renewable energy increases; and impacts are larger in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe. There remain many more climate change impacts on the energy sector that cannot currently be captured due to a variety of issues including: lack of climate data, difficulties translating climate data into energy-system-relevant data, lack of detail in energy system models where climate impacts act. This paper does not attempt to provide an exhaustive analysis of climate change impacts in the energy sector, it is rather another step towards an increasing coverage of possible impacts. - Highlights: • Expanded coverage of climate change impacts on European energy system. • Demand side impacts are larger than supply side impacts. • Power from fossil and nuclear sources decreases, renewable energy increases. • Impacts are larger in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe. • Synergies exist between climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation

  1. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J. [eds.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  2. Climate-Change Impacts on Major Societal and Environmental Sectors: a National View

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melillo, J. M.

    2009-05-01

    The U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Unified Synthesis Product reports on extant and possible future impacts of climate change for seven sectors at the national level - water resources, energy supply and use, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, human health and society. The sectoral analyses provide an integrated national picture of the climate-change consequences, now and in the future, for society and the environment, albeit a picture with regional texture. Major report findings for each sector will be presented. In addition to the specific sectoral findings, several overarching messages emerge from this component of the synthesis activity. First, it is important to think about interactions between and among sectors with regard to climate impacts. For example, the projected changes in the timing and amount of precipitation, and hence water supply, will very likely have significant implications for other sectors considered in the report. Changes in water supply have the potential to affect hydropower generation, river transportation, crop timing and management, in-stream ecosystem services including fish habitat, and human health issues related to links between heavy rains ad water-borne diseases. Second, the report concludes that climate-change impacts on the sectors must be considered in the context of a range of environmental and social factors including pollution, population growth, over use of resources, and urbanization. The multi-factor analysis provides insight into our understanding of where, when and how climate change combines with other environmental and social changes to affect the sectors. It also provides some understanding of how these interactions can either amplify or dampen climate-change impacts. This message has profound implications for the design of research programs and information systems at the national, regional and local levels. Furthermore, it demands that a true partnership be forged between the natural and social sciences

  3. Contribution of human and climate change impacts to changes in streamflow of Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew

    2015-12-04

    Climate change exerts great influence on streamflow by changing precipitation, temperature, snowpack and potential evapotranspiration (PET), while human activities in a watershed can directly alter the runoff production and indirectly through affecting climatic variables. However, to separate contribution of anthropogenic and natural drivers to observed changes in streamflow is non-trivial. Here we estimated the direct influence of human activities and climate change effect to changes of the mean annual streamflow (MAS) of 96 Canadian watersheds based on the elasticity of streamflow in relation to precipitation, PET and human impacts such as land use and cover change. Elasticities of streamflow for each watershed are analytically derived using the Budyko Framework. We found that climate change generally caused an increase in MAS, while human impacts generally a decrease in MAS and such impact tends to become more severe with time, even though there are exceptions. Higher proportions of human contribution, compared to that of climate change contribution, resulted in generally decreased streamflow of Canada observed in recent decades. Furthermore, if without contributions from retreating glaciers to streamflow, human impact would have resulted in a more severe decrease in Canadian streamflow.

  4. Water-Related Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Subsequently on Public Health: A Review for Generalists with Particular Reference to Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Toqeer; Scholz, Miklas; Al-Faraj, Furat; Niaz, Wajeeha

    2016-10-27

    Water-related impacts due to change in climatic conditions ranging from water scarcity to intense floods and storms are increasing in developing countries like Pakistan. Water quality and waterborne diseases like hepatitis, cholera, typhoid, malaria and dengue fever are increasing due to chaotic urbanization, industrialization, poor hygienic conditions, and inappropriate water management. The morbidity rate is high due to lack of health care facilities, especially in developing countries. Organizations linked to the Government of Pakistan (e.g., Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Climate Change, Planning and Development, Ministry of Forest, Irrigation and Public Health, Pakistan Meteorological Department, National Disaster Management, Pakistan Agricultural Research Centre, Pakistan Council for Research in Water Resources, and Global Change Impact Study Centre), United Nation organizations, provincial government departments, non-governmental organizations (e.g., Global Facility and Disaster Reduction), research centers linked to universities, and international organizations (International Institute for Sustainable Development, Food and Agriculture, Global Climate Fund and World Bank) are trying to reduce the water-related impacts of climate change, but due to lack of public awareness and health care infrastructure, the death rate is steadily increasing. This paper critically reviews the scientific studies and reports both at national and at international level benefiting generalists concerned with environmental and public health challenges. The article underlines the urgent need for water conservation, risk management, and the development of mitigation measures to cope with the water-related impacts of climate change on agriculture and subsequently on public health. Novel solutions and bioremediation methods have been presented to control environmental pollution and to promote awareness among the scientific community. The focus is on diverse strategies to handle

  5. Impact of organisational change on mental health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bamberger, Simon Grandjean; Vinding, Anker Lund; Larsen, Anelia

    2012-01-01

    Although limited evidence is available, organisational change is often cited as the cause of mental health problems. This paper provides an overview of the current literature regarding the impact of organisational change on mental health. A systematic search in PUBMED, PsychInfo and Web of Knowle......Although limited evidence is available, organisational change is often cited as the cause of mental health problems. This paper provides an overview of the current literature regarding the impact of organisational change on mental health. A systematic search in PUBMED, PsychInfo and Web...

  6. Impact of Climate Change on India's Monsoonal Climate: Present ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Expected Future Changes in Rainfall and Temperature over India under IPCC SRES A1B GHG Scenarios · Expected Future Change in Monsoon Rainfall and Annual Surface Temp for 2020's, 2050's and 2080's · Likely Future Paradox of Monsoon-ENSO Links · High-Resolution Regional Climate Change Scenarios.

  7. Impacts of climate change on fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith

    2010-01-01

    Evidence of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems is accumulating, but must be evaluated in the context of the "normal" climate cycles and variability which have caused fluctuations in fisheries throughout human history. The impacts on fisheries are due to a variety...... experimentally and in controlled conditions. Indirect effects act via ecosystem processes and changes in the production of food or abundance of competitors, predators and pathogens. Recent studies of the effects of climate on primary production are reviewed and the consequences for fisheries production...... are evaluated through regional examples. Regional examples are also used to show changes in distribution and phenology of plankton and fish, which are attributed to climate. The role of discontinuous and extreme events (regime shifts, exceptional warm periods) is discussed. Changes in fish population processes...

  8. Cosmet'eau-Changes in the personal care product consumption practices: from whistle-blowers to impacts on aquatic environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bressy, Adèle; Carré, Catherine; Caupos, Émilie; de Gouvello, Bernard; Deroubaix, José-Frédéric; Deutsch, Jean-Claude; Mailler, Romain; Marconi, Anthony; Neveu, Pascale; Paulic, Laurent; Pichon, Sébastien; Rocher, Vincent; Severin, Irina; Soyer, Mathilde; Moilleron, Régis

    2016-07-01

    The Cosmet'eau project (2015-2018) investigates the "changes in the personal care product (PCP) consumption practices: from whistle-blowers to impacts on aquatic environments." In this project, the example of PCPs will be used to understand how public health concerns related to micropollutants can be addressed by public authorities-including local authorities, industries, and consumers. The project aims to characterize the possible changes in PCP consumption practices and to evaluate the impact of their implementation on aquatic contamination. Our goals are to study the whistle-blowers, the risk perception of consumers linked with their practices, and the contamination in parabens and their substitutes, triclosan, and triclocarban from wastewater to surface water. The project investigates the following potential solutions: modifications of industrial formulation or changes in consumption practices. The final purpose is to provide policy instruments for local authorities aiming at building effective strategies to fight against micropollutants in receiving waters.

  9. Enhanced science-stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jönsson, Anna Maria; Anderbrant, Olle; Holmér, Jennie; Johansson, Jacob; Schurgers, Guy; Svensson, Glenn P; Smith, Henrik G

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science-stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science-stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate a discussion among the science-stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models.

  10. Proceedings of the conference days on 'Climate change impacts on coastal risks'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, M.; Meyssignac, B.; Llovel, W.; Cazenave, A.; Rogel, P.; Woppelmann, G.; Salas y Melia, D.; Morelatto, D.; Benoit, M.; Tiberi-Wadier, A.L.; Charles, E.; Thiebot, J.; Le Cozannet, G.; Pedreros, R.; Ardhuin, F.; Planton, S.; Balouin, Y.; Ferreira, O.; Ciavola, P.; Donato, V.; Walker, P.; Dubois, A.; Sedrati, M.; Menier, D.; Idier, D.; Balouin, Y.; Bohn Bertoldo, R.; Bouchette, F.; Boulahya, F.; Brivois, O.; Calvete, D.; Capo, S.; Castelle, B.; Certain, R.; Charles, E.; Chateauminois, E.; Delvallee, E.; Falques, A.; Fattal, P.; Larroude, P.; Lecacheux, S.; Garnier, R.; Hequette, A.; Maanan, M.; Mallet, C.; Maspataud, A.; Mays, C.; Oliveros, C.; Paillart, M.; Parisot, J.P.; Pedreros, R.; Poumadere, M.; Robin, N.; Ruz, M.H.; Robin, M.; Vinchon, C.; Capo, S.; Rihouey, D.; Howa, H.; Desmazes, F.; Fauque, L.; Maillet, G.; Vella, C.; Pelinovski, E.; Demory, F.; Canut, V.; Dussouillez, P.; Fleury, T.J.; Lecacheux, S.; Garcin, M.; Krien, Y.; Poisson, B.; Almar, R.; Senechal, N.; Bonneton, P.; Ennesser, Y.; Cataliotti, D.; Terrier, M.; Genovese, E.; Hallegatte, S.; Dumas, P.; Sauzeau, T.; Peret, J.; Zaninetti, J.M.; Vinchon, C.; Agenais, A.L.; Baron-Yelles, N.; Berthelier, E.; Garcin, M.; Herivaux, C.; Kuhfuss, L.; Maton, L.; Meur-Ferec, C.; Rey-Valette, H.; Charles, J.C.; Franquart, H.; Hellequin, A.P.; Marche, F.; Mazeiraud, V.; Nathan, F.; Romieu, E.; Rulleau, B.; Maton, L.; Rulleau, B.; Flanquart, H.; Balouin, Y.; Poumadere, M.; Deve, I.; Bouteau, F.; Aubie, S.; Mugica, J.; Hoareau, A.; Duvat, V.; Magnan, A.; Sergent, P.; Prevot, G.; Tissier, M.; Chazel, F.; Lannes, D.; Falques, A.; Ruessink, G.; Maspataud, A.; Ruz, M.H.; Vanhee, S.; Vanroye, C.; Elineau, S.; Duperret, A.; Mallet, P.; Caspar, R.; Bonnot-Courtois, C.; Perherin, C.; Roche, A.; Trmal, C.; Roux, I.; Pons, F.; Boura, C.; Devaux, E.; Desire, G.; Cayocca, F.; Le Hir, P.; Vinchon, C.; Andre, C.; Meur-Ferec, C.; Idier, D.; Rohmer, J.; Turpin, V.; Magnan, A.; Baillarin, F.; Galarraga, D.; Gardel, A.; Fromard, F.; Froidefond, J.M.; Lafon, V.; Proisy, C.; Walcker, R.; Mercier, F.; Pronier, O.; Dehouck, A.; Bertrand, F.; Goeldner-Gianella, L.

    2011-01-01

    This document gathers the articles of the presentations given during this conference about the climate change impacts on coastal risks: - Topic 1 - forcing changes: Regional sea level changes rebuilt for the last five decades; Sea level modeling in decennial and centennial experiments of the coupled CNRM-CERFACS model; Sea level state simulations in the Atlantic ocean between 1960 and 2100 for 3 climate change scenarios; Wave trends and characteristics variability in the Bay of Biscay from 1958 to 2001; Climate change impacts on storm events affecting the European coastline, the MICORE project; CECILE project: coastal environmental changes, impacts of sea level rise; Hydro-dynamism of a meso-tidal bay-shore in modal conditions and in storm conditions, Suscinio Bay, South-Brittany; - Topic 2 - impacts on unforeseen turns of events: VULSACO - vulnerability of sandy coastal systems in front of climate changes and anthropic pressures, methods, tools, results and lessons learnt; Climate change vulnerability with a 2DH modeling on 4 French beaches; Analysis of the 'Truc-Vert' beach (Gironde) evolution over a decennial period, link with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); Impact of the reduction of the Rhone river solid fraction on the delta coastline mobility since the Little Ice Age; Mega-blocs of the eastern side of the Fos Gulf as markers of exceptional SW-oriented storms; Implementation of a multi-model approach to evaluate the Languedoc coast exposure to marine submersions in a climate change context; Continuous video observation of the littoral: multi-scales and multi-processes; - Topic 3 - Socio-economic impacts: Climate change and coastal risk evaluation in North Africa; Assessment of damage from storm surge and sea level rise to coastal cities: lessons from the Miami area; Construction and environmental protection of centre-west Atlantic coastal communities: contribution of geo-history; Consideration of climate change effects in new coastal protection schemes

  11. Impacts of climate change performance on building in New Zealand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Camilleri, M.; Jaques, R.; Isaacs, N.

    2001-07-01

    Climate change is expected to impact on many aspects of building performance, with much of the existing and future building stock likely to be affected. Potential impacts of climate change on buildings are identified, evaluated as to how serious they might be, and actions are considered to ensure that future building performance is not compromised. Climate change scenarios for New Zealand defined the scale of climate changes considered for building performance. For each climate variable, relevant aspects of building performance were examined to determine if there is likely to be a significant impact. Where significant impacts were indicated, they were studied in detail and quantified where possible. A risk-profiling tool was formulated to cover the risk/severity of the most significant climate change impacts, which include flooding, tropical cyclones and overheating. Adaptation strategies were developed for each climate change impact, with different responses appropriate for each impact. Mitigation of greenhouse emissions is also addressed. For those risks where delaying action has serious consequences, it may be appropriate to consider changes in building or zoning regulations to anticipate the future impacts of climate change. Some implications for future building performance, design, standards and regulation are discussed. (author)

  12. A Change Impact Analysis to Characterize Evolving Program Behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rungta, Neha Shyam; Person, Suzette; Branchaud, Joshua

    2012-01-01

    Change impact analysis techniques estimate the potential effects of changes made to software. Directed Incremental Symbolic Execution (DiSE) is an intraprocedural technique for characterizing the impact of software changes on program behaviors. DiSE first estimates the impact of the changes on the source code using program slicing techniques, and then uses the impact sets to guide symbolic execution to generate path conditions that characterize impacted program behaviors. DiSE, however, cannot reason about the flow of impact between methods and will fail to generate path conditions for certain impacted program behaviors. In this work, we present iDiSE, an extension to DiSE that performs an interprocedural analysis. iDiSE combines static and dynamic calling context information to efficiently generate impacted program behaviors across calling contexts. Information about impacted program behaviors is useful for testing, verification, and debugging of evolving programs. We present a case-study of our implementation of the iDiSE algorithm to demonstrate its efficiency at computing impacted program behaviors. Traditional notions of coverage are insufficient for characterizing the testing efforts used to validate evolving program behaviors because they do not take into account the impact of changes to the code. In this work we present novel definitions of impacted coverage metrics that are useful for evaluating the testing effort required to test evolving programs. We then describe how the notions of impacted coverage can be used to configure techniques such as DiSE and iDiSE in order to support regression testing related tasks. We also discuss how DiSE and iDiSE can be configured for debugging finding the root cause of errors introduced by changes made to the code. In our empirical evaluation we demonstrate that the configurations of DiSE and iDiSE can be used to support various software maintenance tasks

  13. Global climate change impacts on forests and markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiaohui Tian; Brent Sohngen; John B Kim; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, theMC2model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase...

  14. Correlation of Head Impacts to Change in Balance Error Scoring System Scores in Division I Men's Lacrosse Players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyashita, Theresa L; Diakogeorgiou, Eleni; Marrie, Kaitlyn

    Investigation into the effect of cumulative subconcussive head impacts has yielded various results in the literature, with many supporting a link to neurological deficits. Little research has been conducted on men's lacrosse and associated balance deficits from head impacts. (1) Athletes will commit more errors on the postseason Balance Error Scoring System (BESS) test. (2) There will be a positive correlation to change in BESS scores and head impact exposure data. Prospective longitudinal study. Level 3. Thirty-four Division I men's lacrosse players (age, 19.59 ± 1.42 years) wore helmets instrumented with a sensor to collect head impact exposure data over the course of a competitive season. Players completed a BESS test at the start and end of the competitive season. The number of errors from pre- to postseason increased during the double-leg stance on foam ( P impacts sustained over the course of 1 lacrosse season, as measured by average linear acceleration, head injury criteria, and Gadd Severity Index scores. If there is microtrauma to the vestibular system due to repetitive subconcussive impacts, only an assessment that highly stresses the vestibular system may be able to detect these changes. Cumulative subconcussive impacts may result in neurocognitive dysfunction, including balance deficits, which are associated with an increased risk for injury. The development of a strategy to reduce total number of head impacts may curb the associated sequelae. Incorporation of a modified BESS test, firm surface only, may not be recommended as it may not detect changes due to repetitive impacts over the course of a competitive season.

  15. Economic impacts of climate change in Australia: framework and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ford, Melanie

    2007-01-01

    Full text: There is growing interest in understanding the potential impacts of climate change in Australia, and especially the economic impacts of 'inaction'. In this study, a preliminary analysis of the possible economic impacts of future climate change in Australia is undertaken using ABARE's general equilibrium model of the global economy, GTEM. In order to understand the potential economy-wide economic impacts, the broad climatic trends that Australia is likely to experience over the next several decades are canvassed and the potential economic and non-economic impacts on key risk areas, such as water resources, agriculture and forests, health, industry and human settlements and the ecosystems, are identified. A more detailed analysis of the economic impacts of climate change are undertaken by developing two case studies. In the first case study, the economic impact of climate change and reduced water availability on the agricultural sector is assessed in the Murray-Darling Basin. In the second case study, the sectoral economic impacts on the Australian resources sector of a projected decline in global economic activity due to climate change is analysed. The key areas of required development to more fully understand the economy-wide and sectoral impacts of climate change are also discussed including issues associated with estimating both non-market and market impacts. Finally, an analytical framework for undertaking integrated assessment of climate change impacts domestically and globally is developed

  16. Impact of Radio Link Unreliability on the Connectivity of Wireless Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gorce Jean-Marie

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Many works have been devoted to connectivity of ad hoc networks. This is an important feature for wireless sensor networks (WSNs to provide the nodes with the capability of communicating with one or several sinks. In most of these works, radio links are assumed ideal, that is, with no transmission errors. To fulfil this assumption, the reception threshold should be high enough to guarantee that radio links have a low transmission error probability. As a consequence, all unreliable links are dismissed. This approach is suboptimal concerning energy consumption because unreliable links should permit to reduce either the transmission power or the number of active nodes. The aim of this paper is to quantify the contribution of unreliable long hops to an increase of the connectivity of WSNs. In our model, each node is assumed to be connected to each other node in a probabilistic manner. Such a network is modeled as a complete random graph, that is, all edges exist. The instantaneous node degree is then defined as the number of simultaneous valid single-hop receptions of the same message, and finally the mean node degree is computed analytically in both AWGN and block-fading channels. We show the impact on connectivity of two MACs and routing parameters. The first one is the energy detection level such as the one used in carrier sense mechanisms. The second one is the reliability threshold used by the routing layer to select stable links only. Both analytic and simulation results show that using opportunistic protocols is challenging.

  17. Impact of Radio Link Unreliability on the Connectivity of Wireless Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Marie Gorce

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Many works have been devoted to connectivity of ad hoc networks. This is an important feature for wireless sensor networks (WSNs to provide the nodes with the capability of communicating with one or several sinks. In most of these works, radio links are assumed ideal, that is, with no transmission errors. To fulfil this assumption, the reception threshold should be high enough to guarantee that radio links have a low transmission error probability. As a consequence, all unreliable links are dismissed. This approach is suboptimal concerning energy consumption because unreliable links should permit to reduce either the transmission power or the number of active nodes. The aim of this paper is to quantify the contribution of unreliable long hops to an increase of the connectivity of WSNs. In our model, each node is assumed to be connected to each other node in a probabilistic manner. Such a network is modeled as a complete random graph, that is, all edges exist. The instantaneous node degree is then defined as the number of simultaneous valid single-hop receptions of the same message, and finally the mean node degree is computed analytically in both AWGN and block-fading channels. We show the impact on connectivity of two MACs and routing parameters. The first one is the energy detection level such as the one used in carrier sense mechanisms. The second one is the reliability threshold used by the routing layer to select stable links only. Both analytic and simulation results show that using opportunistic protocols is challenging.

  18. Impact of corneal cross-linking combined with photorefractive keratectomy on blurring strength

    OpenAIRE

    Labiris, Georgios; Sideroudi, Haris; Angelonias, Dimitris; Georgantzoglou, Kimonas; Kozobolis, Vassilios P

    2016-01-01

    Georgios Labiris,1,2 Haris Sideroudi,2 Dimitris Angelonias,2 Kimonas Georgantzoglou,2 Vassilios P Kozobolis1,21Department of Ophthalmology, University Hospital of Alexandroupolis, 2Eye Institute of Thrace, Alexandroupolis, GreecePurpose: The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of corneal cross-linking combined with photorefractive keratectomy (PRK) on blurring strength.Methods: A total of 63 patients with keratoconus were recruited for this study, and two study groups were formed acc...

  19. Impact of modulation bandwidth on multiplexing using principal modes in MMF links.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Rohan; Appaiah, Kumar

    2018-01-22

    Multimode fibers (MMFs) are widely used for short fiber links. However, the data rates through MMFs is limited owing to modal dispersion. The so-called "principal modes" (PMs) permit transmission and multiplexing through the MMFs without modal dispersion for small modulation bandwidths. For larger modulation bandwidths, however, they lose their dispersion-free nature. In this paper, we model the impact of modulation bandwidth and mode coupling strength on the performance of PMs. We develop a simulator that characterizes the dispersion and cross-talk of the PMs of few-mode and large-core graded-index MMFs with mode-dependent losses (MDL). Simulations reveal that for fibers without MDL, for modulation frequencies beyond 10 GHz diminishes the PMs' frequency response by more than 1 dB for 100 m in large-core MMF links and 10 km few-mode fiber links. With MDL, simulations reveal that for modulation bandwidths beyond 2 GHz diminishes the frequency response by 3 dB for a 1 km few-mode fiber and by more than 4 dB for a 1 km large-core multimode fiber. While multiplexing using PMs in large-core MMFs with MDL, we find that for modulation bandwidths beyond 3 GHz, the cross-talk is 20 dB in 1 km large-core MMF links, thereby limiting system performance.

  20. Climate change impacts on the duration and frequency of combined sewer overflows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortier, C.; Mailhot, A.

    2012-12-01

    Combined sewer overflows (CSO) occur when large rainwater inflow from heavy precipitation exceeds the capacity of urban combined sewage systems. Many American and European cities with old sewage systems see their water quality significantly deteriorate during such events. In the long term, changes in the rainfall regime due to climate change may lead to more severe and more frequent CSO episodes and thus compel cities to review their global water management. The overall objective of this study is to investigate how climate change will impact CSO frequency and duration. Data from rain gauges located nearby 30 overflow outfalls, in southern Quebec, Canada, were used to identify rain events leading to overflows, using CSO monitored data from May to October during the period 2007-2009. For each site, occurrence and duration of CSO events were recorded and linked to a rainfall event. Many rain events features can be used to predict CSO events, such as total depth, duration, average intensity and peak intensity. Results based on Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients and multiple regression analysis show that CSO occurrence is best predicted by total rainfall. A methodology is proposed to calculate the CSO probability of occurrence and duration for each site of interest using rainfall series as input data. Monte Carlo method is then used to estimate CSO frequency. To evaluate the climate change impact on CSO, these relationships are used with simulated data from the Canadian Regional Climate Model to compare the distribution of annual number of CSO events over the 1960-1990 period and the 2070-2100 period.

  1. Analyzing the Impacts of Land Use Land Change on Near Shore Coastal Habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehman, R. D.; Ta, E.; Boyle, C.; Alwood, B.

    2017-12-01

    The natural beauty of the United States Virgin Islands (USVI) has continued to attract visitors and residents, which overtime has increased human development and impact. The resulting land use change increases sediment loads and the flow of pollutants into surrounding nearshore environments such as coral reefs, mangroves, and seagrass beds. Compounded with regional climate-related processes such as rising ocean temperatures and acidification, future land-use change poses a formidable threat to coral reefs and other susceptible marine environments. Without a healthy environment, the USVI economy also becomes endangered because it is mainly supported by tourism and recreation. Using Google Earth Engine, we created a tool to composite yearly Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS and Sentinel-2 MSI images identify changes from 1985 to present day. Using these land cover change maps we then analyzed trends at a watershed scale using hydrological data. We found there is a spatial relationship between development intensity and the health of coral reefs. Our work supports the existing knowledge of the link between land use and coastal ecosystem health.

  2. Changes of cloudiness over tropical land during the past few decades and its link to global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arias, P.; Fu, R.; Li, W.

    2007-12-01

    Tropical forests play a key role in determining the global carbon-climate feedback in the 21st century. Changes in rainforest growth and mortality rates, especially in the deep and least perturbed forest areas, have been consistently observed across global tropics in recent years. Understanding the underlying causes of these changes, especially their links to the global climate change, is especially important in determining the future of the tropical rainforests in the 21st century. Previous studies have mostly focus on the potential influences from elevated atmospheric CO2 and increasing surface temperature. Because the rainforests in wet tropical region is often light limited, we explore whether cloudiness have changed, if so, whether it is consistent with that expected from changes in forest growth rate. We will report our observational analysis examining the trends in annual average shortwave (SW) downwelling radiation, total cloud cover, and cumulus cover over the tropical land regions and to link them with trends in convective available potencial energy (CAPE). ISCCP data and radiosonde records available from the Department of Atmospheric Sciences of the University of Wyoming (http://www.weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html) are used to study the trends. The period for the trend analysis is 1984-2004 for the ISCCP data and 1980-2006 for the radiosondes. The results for the Amazon rainforest region suggest a decreasing trend in total cloud and convective cloud covers, which results in an increase in downwelling SW radiation at the surface. These changes of total and convective clouds are consistent with a trend of decreasing CAPE and an elevated Level of Free Convection (LFC) height, as obtained from the radiosondes. All the above mentioned trends are statistically significant based on the Mann-Kendall test with 95% of confidence. These results consistently suggest the downward surface solar radiation has been increasing since 1984, result from a decrease

  3. Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beckage, Brian; Gross, Louis J.; Lacasse, Katherine; Carr, Eric; Metcalf, Sara S.; Winter, Jonathan M.; Howe, Peter D.; Fefferman, Nina; Franck, Travis; Zia, Asim; Kinzig, Ann; Hoffman, Forrest M.

    2018-01-01

    Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4-6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with the largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.

  4. Impact on local air quality of the Danish landworks in the fixed link across Oeresund

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berkowicz, R.; Fenger, J.; Gudmundsson, H.; Vignati, E.; Wagner, M.

    1996-01-01

    The combined bridge and tunnel link between Sweden and Denmark (the Oeresund Link) and the related land constructions are expected to be in operation around the turn of the century. This new link across the Oeresund and the island Amager may result in significant changes in traffic pattern and traffic intensity - and therefore changes in air quality in some areas can not be excluded. An investigation initiated in 1994 on the Danish side of the link comprises monitoring of present air pollution at the Airport Motorway and model evaluations of future pollution levels at the motorway and in six street canyons. For all locations the pollution levels are calculated for the present situation and for scenarios for the years 2000 and 2010 both with and without the fixed link. For the future scenarios and expected development of vehicle technology is taken into account. It appears that the general air quality in the area will not be worsen. Only for benzene there is a continued risk of violation of limit values; this may however be changed by planned emission restrictions. A special situation however, may arise near the apartment buildings 'Vinkelhusene'. Here it has been decided to cover about 700 m of the motorway, in order to reduce noise and to avoid a barrier effect. This will result in increased pollution levels near the tunnel exits. All calculations are performed with dispersion models developed at the National Environmental Research Institute and are based on traffic scenarios from a traffic model developed by Anders Nyvig Ltd. (au) 10 refs

  5. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hansen, G.E.

    2015-01-01

    Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    Gerrit Hansen

    Global climate change is unequivocal, and greenhouse gas emissions continue rising despite international mitigation efforts. Hence whether and to what extent the impacts of human induced

  6. Water-Related Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Subsequently on Public Health: A Review for Generalists with Particular Reference to Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toqeer Ahmed

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Water-related impacts due to change in climatic conditions ranging from water scarcity to intense floods and storms are increasing in developing countries like Pakistan. Water quality and waterborne diseases like hepatitis, cholera, typhoid, malaria and dengue fever are increasing due to chaotic urbanization, industrialization, poor hygienic conditions, and inappropriate water management. The morbidity rate is high due to lack of health care facilities, especially in developing countries. Organizations linked to the Government of Pakistan (e.g., Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Climate Change, Planning and Development, Ministry of Forest, Irrigation and Public Health, Pakistan Meteorological Department, National Disaster Management, Pakistan Agricultural Research Centre, Pakistan Council for Research in Water Resources, and Global Change Impact Study Centre, United Nation organizations, provincial government departments, non-governmental organizations (e.g., Global Facility and Disaster Reduction, research centers linked to universities, and international organizations (International Institute for Sustainable Development, Food and Agriculture, Global Climate Fund and World Bank are trying to reduce the water-related impacts of climate change, but due to lack of public awareness and health care infrastructure, the death rate is steadily increasing. This paper critically reviews the scientific studies and reports both at national and at international level benefiting generalists concerned with environmental and public health challenges. The article underlines the urgent need for water conservation, risk management, and the development of mitigation measures to cope with the water-related impacts of climate change on agriculture and subsequently on public health. Novel solutions and bioremediation methods have been presented to control environmental pollution and to promote awareness among the scientific community. The focus is on diverse

  7. Climate Change Impact on Togo's Agriculture Performance: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate Change Impact on Togo's Agriculture Performance: A Ricardian Analysis Based on Time Series Data. ... Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management ... Conclusively, the impact of climate change on agriculture seems to be varied with the temperature and precipitation in different seasons. Climate ...

  8. Climate change. Socio-economic impacts and violent conflict

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Ierland, E.C.; Klaassen, M.G.; Nierop, T.; Van der Wusten, H.

    1996-01-01

    The results of a literature study on the socio-economic impacts of climate change and the possibilities of violent conflicts enhanced by the greenhouse effect are presented. The socio-economic impacts are classified according to the economic sectors agriculture, forestry, fishery, energy, water, construction, transport, tourism and recreation and discussed in Chapter 2. The impacts on property, ecosystems and human well being are outlined in chapter 3. Chapter 4 deals with climate change and environmental security, and discusses the most important concepts of security and their relation to climate change. Chapter 5 deals with already existing and potential conflicts, that may be enhanced by the greenhouse effect as a result of resource scarcity, particularly related to availability of food and water. On the basis of the literature study and an analysis of research gaps propositions are made on new areas of research to be undertaken. The study emphasizes the need to further study the impact on agriculture in semi-arid zones, the impact on water availability in sensitive regions, a further analysis of the consequences of sea level rise particularly in sensitive areas and with regard to forced migration. Also further studies are required into the socio-economic impacts of changes in human health and mortality due to climate change, in relation to diseases. Special attention should be paid to migration because of environmental degradation and flooding. Extreme weather events have already been studied, but there still is a need for further insights into how extreme weather events will affect society, taking into account adaptive behaviour. Finally, in the area of socio-economic impacts, the implications of changes in ecosystems and biodiversity require further attention as these effects may be large but, at the same time, difficult to assess in economic terms. 175 refs

  9. Climate change impacts on ecosystems and ecosystem services in the United States: Process and prospects for sustained assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Nancy B.; Groffman, Peter M; Staudinger, Michelle D.; Tallis, Heather

    2016-01-01

    The third United States National Climate Assessment emphasized an evaluation of not just the impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, but also the impacts of climate change on the benefits that people derive from nature, known as ecosystem services. The ecosystems, biodiversity, and ecosystem services component of the assessment largely drew upon the findings of a transdisciplinary workshop aimed at developing technical input for the assessment, involving participants from diverse sectors. A small author team distilled and synthesized this and hundreds of other technical input to develop the key findings of the assessment. The process of developing and ranking key findings hinged on identifying impacts that had particular, demonstrable effects on the U.S. public via changes in national ecosystem services. Findings showed that ecosystem services are threatened by the impacts of climate change on water supplies, species distributions and phenology, as well as multiple assaults on ecosystem integrity that, when compounded by climate change, reduce the capacity of ecosystems to buffer against extreme events. As ecosystems change, such benefits as water sustainability and protection from storms that are afforded by intact ecosystems are projected to decline across the continent due to climate change. An ongoing, sustained assessment that focuses on the co-production of actionable climate science will allow scientists from a range of disciplines to ascertain the capability of their forecasting models to project environmental and ecological change and link it to ecosystem services; additionally, an iterative process of evaluation, development of management strategies, monitoring, and reevaluation will increase the applicability and usability of the science by the U.S. public.

  10. The future of the Mediterranean from impacts of climate change to adaptation issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magnan, A.; Garnaud, B.; Bille, R.; Gemenne, F.; Hallegatte, St.

    2009-01-01

    the fight against climate change must be considered for the short, medium and long term at the crossroads of climatic, socioeconomic and environmental issues. This is particularly true in the Mediterranean. The region's rapid growth in recent decades, while delivering significant positive impacts for the living conditions of the population, has however largely occurred at the expense of the environmental balance, which is essential for human well-being, and has often contributed to an increase in social and economical disparity, which are characteristic of the Mediterranean basin today. Major pressures and threats already place a heavy demand on the resources and activities of the Mediterranean. Climate change will accentuate these pressures, but will not change their nature. The aim therefore is to act upstream of these pressures and threats to reduce their effect and to avoid the occurrence of new ones. As the Mediterranean offers a diverse range of cultural, political, economical and environmental circumstances, it is expected that the impacts of climate change will take contrasting forms, as should the possible solutions. The Mediterranean therefore appears to be a priority for adaptation, and also serves as a laboratory for testing measures that could be implemented elsewhere in the world. This report aims to provide a general framework for the implementation of adaptation in the Mediterranean context, based on a number of important clarifications and accompanied by operational recommendations. In the first part (section 2) the scientific basis of the study will be set, notably from the works of the IPCC. We will assess the major climatic evolutions predicted for the Mediterranean over the coming century, concentrating on temperatures, rainfall regimes and variation of sea level. This will lead us to present (section 3) the induced physical impacts and to study the consequences on natural resources and human activities. We will then explore the central topic

  11. Economic impacts of marine ecological change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groeneveld, Rolf A.; Bartelings, Heleen; Börger, Tobias; Bosello, Francesco; Buisman, Erik; Delpiazzo, Elisa; Eboli, Fabio; Fernandes, Jose A.; Hamon, Katell G.; Hattam, Caroline; Loureiro, Maria; Nunes, Paulo A.L.D.; Piwowarczyk, Joanna; Schasfoort, Femke E.; Simons, Sarah L.; Walker, Adam N.

    2018-01-01

    Marine ecological change is likely to have serious potential economic consequences for coastal economies all over the world. This article reviews the current literature on the economic impacts of marine ecological change, as well as a number of recent contributions to this literature carried out

  12. Modeling of climate change impacts on agriculture, forestry and fishery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bala, B.K.; Munnaf, M.A.

    2014-01-01

    Changes in climate affect agriculture, forest and fisheries. This paper examines the climate change impact on crop production, fishery and forestry using state - of - the - art modeling technique. Crop growth model InfoCrop was used to predict the climate change impacts on the yields of rice, wheat and maize in Bangladesh. Historical climate change scenario has little or no negative impacts on rice and wheat yields in Mymensingh and Dinajpur but IPCC climate change scenario has higher negative impacts. There is almost no change in the yields of maize for the historical climate change scenario in the Chittagong, Hill Tracts of but there is a small decrease in the yields of rice and maize for IPCC climate change scenario. A new statistical model to forecast climate change impacts on fishery in the world oceans has been developed. Total climate change impact on fishery in the Indian Ocean is negative and the predictor power is 94.14% for eastern part and 98.59% for the western part. Two models are presented for the mangrove forests of the Sundarbans. To bole volumes of the pioneer, intermediate and climax are simulated for three different logging strategies and the results have been discussed in this paper. (author)

  13. Land use allocation model considering climate change impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D. K.; Yoon, E. J.; Song, Y. I.

    2017-12-01

    In Korea, climate change adaptation plans are being developed for each administrative district based on impact assessments constructed in various fields. This climate change impact assessments are superimposed on the actual space, which causes problems in land use allocation because the spatial distribution of individual impacts may be different each other. This implies that trade-offs between climate change impacts can occur depending on the composition of land use. Moreover, the actual space is complexly intertwined with various factors such as required area, legal regulations, and socioeconomic values, so land use allocation in consideration of climate change can be very difficult problem to solve (Liu et al. 2012; Porta et al. 2013).Optimization techniques can generate a sufficiently good alternatives for land use allocation at the strategic level if only the fitness function of relationship between impact and land use composition are derived. It has also been noted that land use optimization model is more effective than the scenario-based prediction model in achieving the objectives for problem solving (Zhang et al. 2014). Therefore in this study, we developed a quantitative tool, MOGA (Multi Objective Genetic Algorithm), which can generate a comprehensive land use allocations considering various climate change impacts, and apply it to the Gangwon-do in Korea. Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are the most popular optimization technique to address multi-objective in land use allocation. Also, it allows for immediate feedback to stake holders because it can run a number of experiments with different parameter values. And it is expected that land use decision makers and planners can formulate a detailed spatial plan or perform additional analysis based on the result of optimization model. Acknowledgments: This work was supported by the Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) as "Climate Change Correspondence Program (Project number: 2014001310006)"

  14. Future changes in Mekong River hydrology: impact of climate change and reservoir operation on discharge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lauri

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The transboundary Mekong River is facing two ongoing changes that are expected to significantly impact its hydrology and the characteristics of its exceptional flood pulse. The rapid economic development of the riparian countries has led to massive plans for hydropower construction, and projected climate change is expected to alter the monsoon patterns and increase temperature in the basin. The aim of this study is to assess the cumulative impact of these factors on the hydrology of the Mekong within next 20–30 yr. We downscaled the output of five general circulation models (GCMs that were found to perform well in the Mekong region. For the simulation of reservoir operation, we used an optimisation approach to estimate the operation of multiple reservoirs, including both existing and planned hydropower reservoirs. For the hydrological assessment, we used a distributed hydrological model, VMod, with a grid resolution of 5 km × 5 km. In terms of climate change's impact on hydrology, we found a high variation in the discharge results depending on which of the GCMs is used as input. The simulated change in discharge at Kratie (Cambodia between the baseline (1982–1992 and projected time period (2032–2042 ranges from −11% to +15% for the wet season and −10% to +13% for the dry season. Our analysis also shows that the changes in discharge due to planned reservoir operations are clearly larger than those simulated due to climate change: 25–160% higher dry season flows and 5–24% lower flood peaks in Kratie. The projected cumulative impacts follow rather closely the reservoir operation impacts, with an envelope around them induced by the different GCMs. Our results thus indicate that within the coming 20–30 yr, the operation of planned hydropower reservoirs is likely to have a larger impact on the Mekong hydrograph than the impacts of climate change, particularly during the dry season. On the other hand, climate change will

  15. Economic impacts of climate change in the U.S

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neumann, J.

    1997-01-01

    Results of a long-term research project funded by EPRI to study the economic impacts of climate change in the U.S. were described. In 1992, Industrial Economics Inc., began an assessment of the impact of climate change in key natural resource sectors. A wide range of uniform climate scenarios were used to assess sensitivity across different temperature and precipitation gradients. Estimates were developed for the 2060 economy, using dynamic models to understand what was happening along the transient. It was projected that the greatest impact of climate change would be on the agricultural sector because of projected gains in productivity, mainly due to increased precipitation. Similar scenarios were developed for the economic impact of climate change on timber and coastal structures, including the loss of value of coastal property. Key limitations of the study, and future directions in research (e.g. extending the study to health and non-market impacts, including other developed and developing countries) were also outlined

  16. Social impacts as a function of place change

    OpenAIRE

    McKercher, Bob; Wang, Dan; Park, Eerang

    2015-01-01

    This paper argues that both impacts felt by and attitudes to tourism are a function of place change. Destinations are comprised of three types of place: tourism, non-tourism and shared. It is believed attitudes are generally positive when stasis exists among the three types, but deteriorate during periods of rapid place change. Likewise, impacts are felt when place changes, especially when non-tourism place is transformed into either shared or tourism place. This proposition is tested through...

  17. Adapting to the impacts of climate change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    America's Climate Choices: Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change; National Research Council

    2010-01-01

    "Across the United States, impacts of climate change are already evident. Heat waves have become more frequent and intense, cold extremes have become less frequent, and patterns of rainfall are likely changing...

  18. Climate change and Public health: vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzzone, F.; Setegn, S.

    2013-12-01

    Climate Change plays a significant role in public health. Changes in climate affect weather conditions that we are accustomed to. Increases in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events such as storms could increase the risk of dangerous flooding, high winds, and other direct threats to people and property. Changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and extreme events could enhance the spread of some diseases. According to studies by EPA, the impacts of climate change on health will depend on many factors. These factors include the effectiveness of a community's public health and safety systems to address or prepare for the risk and the behavior, age, gender, and economic status of individuals affected. Impacts will likely vary by region, the sensitivity of populations, the extent and length of exposure to climate change impacts, and society's ability to adapt to change. Transmissions of infectious disease have been associated with social, economic, ecological, health care access, and climatic factors. Some vector-borne diseases typically exhibit seasonal patterns in which the role of temperature and rainfall is well documented. Some of the infectious diseases that have been documented by previous studies, include the correlation between rainfall and drought in the occurrence of malaria, the influence of the dry season on epidemic meningococcal disease in the sub-Saharan African, and the importance of warm ocean waters in driving cholera occurrence in the Ganges River delta in Asia The rise of climate change has been a major concern in the public health sector. Climate change mainly affects vulnerable populations especially in developing countries; therefore, it's important that public health advocates are involve in the decision-making process in order to provide resources and preventative measures for the challenges that are associated with climate change. The main objective of this study is to assess the vulnerability and impact of climate change

  19. Land use change impacts on floods at the catchment scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rogger, M.; Agnoletti, M.; Alaoui, A.; Bathurst, J.C.; Bodner, G.; Borga, M.; Chaplot, Vincent; Gallart, F.; Glatzel, G.; Hall, J.; Holden, J.; Holko, L.; Horn, R.; Kiss, A.; Kohnová, S.; Leitinger, G.; Lennartz, B.; Parajka, J.; Perdigão, R.; Peth, S.; Plavcová, L.; Quinton, John N.; Robinson, Matthew R.; Salinas, J.L.; Santoro, A.; Szolgay, J.; Tron, S.; Akker, van den J.J.H.; Viglione, A.; Blöschl, G.

    2017-01-01

    Research gaps in understanding flood changes at the catchment scale caused by changes in forest management, agricultural practices, artificial drainage, and terracing are identified. Potential strategies in addressing these gaps are proposed, such as complex systems approaches to link processes

  20. Modeling the impact of climate change on watershed discharge and sediment yield in the black soil region, northeastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhiying; Fang, Haiyan

    2017-09-01

    Climate change is expected to impact discharge and sediment yield in watersheds. The purpose of this paper is to assess the potential impacts of climate change on water discharge and sediment yield for the Yi'an watershed of the black soil region, northeastern China, based on the newly released Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) during 2071-2099. For this purpose, the TETIS model was implemented to simulate the hydrological and sedimentological responses to climate change. The model calibration (1971-1977) and validation (1978-1987) performances were rated as satisfactory. The modeling results for the four RCP scenarios relative to the control scenario under the same land use configuration indicated an increase in discharge of 16.3% (RCP 2.6), 14.3% (RCP 4.5), 36.7% (RCP 6.0) and 71.4% (RCP 8.5) and an increase in the sediment yield of 16.5% (RCP 2.6), 32.4% (RCP 4.5), 81.8% (RCP 6.0) and 170% (RCP 8.5). This implies that the negative impact of climate change on sediment yield is generally greater than that on discharge. At the monthly scale, both discharge and sediment yield increased dramatically in April to June and August to September. A more vigorous hydrological cycle and an increase in high values of sediment yield are also expected. These changes in annual discharge and sediment yield were closely linked with changes in precipitation, whereas monthly changes in late spring and autumn were mainly related to temperature. This study highlights the possible adverse impact of climate change on discharge and sediment yield in the black soil region of northeastern China and could provide scientific basis for adaptive management.

  1. The Impact of Grid Unbalances on the Reliability of DC-link Capacitors in a Motor Drive

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Huai; Davari, Pooya; Kumar, Dinesh

    2017-01-01

    DC-link capacitor is one of the reliability-critical components in motor drive applications, which contributes to a considerable cost, size and failure. Its reliability performance depends on both inherent physical strength and external loading. The grid unbalances could alter the electro......-thermal stresses of key components in a motor drive. Therefore, this digest investigates the impact of grid voltage amplitude and phase unbalances on the lifetime of DC-link capacitors used in a standard three-phase motor drive. The theoretical stress models and experimental measurements of the capacitor voltages...... and ripple currents are presented. The relationship between the DC-link capacitor lifetime and the level of unbalances and loads are discussed based on a 7.5 kW motor drive system. The results serve as a guideline to size the DC-link capacitors to be robust enough at the presence of grid unbalance conditions....

  2. Assessing Ecological Impacts According to Land Use Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, S.; Lee, D. K.; Jeong, W.; Jeong, S. G.; Jin, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Land use patterns have changed by human activities, and it has affected the structure and dynamics of ecosystems. In particular, the conversion of forests into other land use has caused environmental degradation and loss of biodiversity. The evaluation of species and their habitat can be preferentially considered to prevent or minimize the adverse effects of land use change. The objective of study is identifying the impacts of environmental conditions on forest ecosystems by comparing ecological changes with time series spatial data. Species distribution models were developed for diverse species with presence data and time-series environmental variables, which allowed comparison of the habitat suitability and connectivity. Habitat suitability and connectivity were used to estimate impacts of forest ecosystems due to land use change. Our result suggested that the size and degree of ecological impacts are were different depending on the properties of land use change. The elements and species were greatly affected by the land use change according to the results. This study suggested that a methodology for measuring the interference of land use change in species habitat and connectivity. Furthermore, it will help to conserve and manage forest by identifying priority conservation areas with influence factor and scale.

  3. Climate change impacts and adaptations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn

    2015-01-01

    change and the ongoing internalization thereof by key institutions in developing countries. The articles in this special issue set forth a set of technical contributions to this improved understanding. We also summarize five major lessons related to uncertainty, extreme events, timing of impacts...

  4. Air Quality: its impact on climate change

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Thambiran, Tirusha

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available immediate and local impacts on human health and ecosystems, whereas the effects of the greenhouse gases are more long-term, as they are able to absorb sunlight and thus contribute toward long-term changes in surface temperatures and have impacts...

  5. Causal pathways linking environmental change with health behaviour change: Natural experimental study of new transport infrastructure and cycling to work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prins, R G; Panter, J; Heinen, E; Griffin, S J; Ogilvie, D B

    2016-06-01

    Mechanisms linking changes to the environment with changes in physical activity are poorly understood. Insights into mechanisms of interventions can help strengthen causal attribution and improve understanding of divergent response patterns. We examined the causal pathways linking exposure to new transport infrastructure with changes in cycling to work. We used baseline (2009) and follow-up (2012) data (N=469) from the Commuting and Health in Cambridge natural experimental study (Cambridge, UK). Exposure to new infrastructure in the form of the Cambridgeshire Guided Busway was defined using residential proximity. Mediators studied were changes in perceptions of the route to work, theory of planned behaviour constructs and self-reported use of the new infrastructure. Outcomes were modelled as an increase, decrease or no change in weekly cycle commuting time. We used regression analyses to identify combinations of mediators forming potential pathways between exposure and outcome. We then tested these pathways in a path model and stratified analyses by baseline level of active commuting. We identified changes in perceptions of the route to work, and use of the cycle path, as potential mediators. Of these potential mediators, only use of the path significantly explained (85%) the effect of the infrastructure in increasing cycling. Path use also explained a decrease in cycling among more active commuters. The findings strengthen the causal argument that changing the environment led to changes in health-related behaviour via use of the new infrastructure, but also show how some commuters may have spent less time cycling as a result. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  6. Questioning Complacency: Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation in Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Brien, Karen; Eriksen, Siri; Sygna, Linda; Naess, Lars Otto

    2006-01-01

    Most European assessments of climate change impacts have been carried out on sectors and ecosystems, providing a narrow understanding of what climate change really means for society. Furthermore, the main focus has been on technological adaptations, with less attention paid to the process of climate change adaptation. In this article, we present and analyze findings from recent studies on climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway, with the aim of identifying the wider social impacts of climate change. Three main lessons can be drawn. First, the potential thresholds and indirect effects may be more important than the direct, sectoral effects. Second, highly sensitive sectors, regions, and communities combine with differential social vulnerability to create both winners and losers. Third, high national levels of adaptive capacity mask the barriers and constraints to adaptation, particularly among those who are most vulnerable to climate change. Based on these results, we question complacency in Norway and other European countries regarding climate change impacts and adaptation. We argue that greater attention needs to be placed on the social context of climate change impacts and on the processes shaping vulnerability and adaptation

  7. Species distributions and climate change - linking the past and the future

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Levinsky, Irina

    Climate change is predicted to have a marked impact on biodiversity, and changes in the distributions of numerous species have already been correlated with ongoing climate change. Climatic oscillations, however, were also the rule during the Pleistocene, and a look to the past may therefore shed ...... conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum, explore surrogates for the dispersal ability of African starlings and critically assess the tools I use and the assumptions behind them....

  8. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Overview of Sectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wuebbles, D.

    2009-12-01

    The assessment of the Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States includes analyses of the potential climate change impacts by sector, including water resources, energy supply and use, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, human health and society. The resulting findings for the climate change impacts on these sectors are discussed in this presentation, with the effects on water resources discussed separately. Major findings include: Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase. Climate changes are already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health. These impacts are different from region to region and will grow under projected climate change. Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged. Agriculture is considered one of the sectors most adaptable to changes in climate. However, increased heat, pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crop and livestock production. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge. Sea-level rise and storm surge place many U.S. coastal areas at increasing risk. Energy and transportation infrastructure and other property in coastal areas are very likely to be adversely affected. Threats to human health will increase. Health impacts of climate change are related to heat stress, waterborne diseases, poor air quality, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects and rodents. Robust public health infrastructure can reduce the potential for negative impacts. Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses. Climate change will combine with pollution, population growth, overuse of resources, urbanization, and other social, economic, and environmental stresses to create larger impacts than from any of these factors alone. Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems. There are a variety of thresholds in

  9. Gender-linked impact of epicardial adipose tissue volume in patients who underwent coronary artery bypass graft surgery or non-coronary valve surgery

    OpenAIRE

    Maimaituxun, Gulinu; Shimabukuro, Michio; Salim, Hotimah Masdan; Tabata, Minoru; Yuji, Daisuke; Morimoto, Yoshihisa; Akasaka, Takeshi; Matsuura, Tomomi; Yagi, Shusuke; Fukuda, Daiju; Yamada, Hirotsugu; Soeki, Takeshi; Sugimoto, Takaki; Tanaka, Masashi; Takanashi, Shuichiro

    2017-01-01

    Background Traditional and non-traditional risk factors for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) are different between men and women. Gender-linked impact of epicardial adipose tissue volume (EATV) in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) remains unknown. Methods Gender-linked impact of EATV, abdominal fat distribution and other traditional ASCVD risk factors were compared in 172 patients (men: 115; women: 57) who underwent CABG or non-coronary valvular surgery ...

  10. Modelling climate change impacts on mycotoxin contamination

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fels, van der Ine; Liu, C.; Battilani, P.

    2016-01-01

    Projected climate change effects will influence primary agricultural systems and thus food security, directly via impacts on yields, and indirectly via impacts on its safety, with mycotoxins considered as crucial hazards. Mycotoxins are produced by a wide variety of fungal species, each having their

  11. Climate Change in Environmental Impact Assessment of Renewable Energy Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2012-01-01

    Many renewable energy projects are subject to EIA. However a question that surfaces is what use an impact assessment is when the project is ‘good for the environment’? One of the current topics receiving much attention in impact assessment is climate change and how this factor is integrated...... in impact assessments. This warrants the question: How do we assess the climate change related impacts of a project that inherently has a positive effect on climate? This paper is based on a document study of EIA reports from Denmark. The results show that climate change is included in most of the EIA...... reports reviewed, and that only climate change mitigation is in focus while adaptation is absent. Also the results point to focus on positive impacts, while the indirect negative impacts are less apparent. This leads to a discussion of the results in the light of the purpose of EIA....

  12. Socioecological factors are linked to changes in prevalence of contempt over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varnum, Michael E W; Grossmann, Igor

    2017-01-01

    Gervais & Fessler argue that the perceived legitimacy of contempt has declined over time in the United States, citing evidence of a decrease in the frequency of its use in the American English corpus. We argue that this decline in contempt, as reflected in cultural products, is linked to shifts in key socioecological features previously associated with other forms of cultural change.

  13. Anthropogenic Climate Change and Allergic Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hueiwang Anna Jeng

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to have an impact on various aspects of health, including mucosal areas involved in allergic inflammatory disorders that include asthma, allergic rhinitis, allergic conjunctivitis and anaphylaxis. The evidence that links climate change to the exacerbation and the development of allergic disease is increasing and appears to be linked to changes in pollen seasons (duration, onset and intensity and changes in allergen content of plants and their pollen as it relates to increased sensitization, allergenicity and exacerbations of allergic airway disease. This has significant implications for air quality and for the global food supply.

  14. Impacts of climate change on electricity network business

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martikainen, A.

    2006-04-01

    Climate has a significant impact on the electricity network business. The electricity network is under the weather pressure all the time and it is planned and constructed to withstand normal climatic stresses. The electricity network that has been planned and constructed now, is expected to be in operation next 40 years. If climatic stresses change in this period, it can cause significant impacts on electricity network business. If the impacts of climate change are figured out in advance, it is possible to mitigate negative points of climate change and exploit the positive points. In this paper the impact of climate change on electricity network business is presented. The results are based on RCAO climate model scenarios. The climate predictions were composed to the period 2016. 2045. The period 1960.1990 was used as a control period. The climate predictions were composed for precipitation, temperature, hoarfrost, thunder, ground frost and wind. The impacts of the change of the climate variables on electricity network business were estimated from technical and economical points of view. The estimation was based on the change predictions of the climate variables. It is expected that climate change will cause more damages than benefits on the electricity network business. The increase of the number of network faults will be the most significant and demanding disadvantage caused by climate change. If networks are not improved to be more resistant for faults, then thunder, heavy snow and wind cause more damages especially to overhead lines in medium voltage network. Increasing precipitation and decreasing amount of ground frost weaken the strength of soil. The construction work will be more difficult with the present vehicles because wet and unfrozen ground can not carry heavy vehicles. As a consequence of increasing temperature, the demand of heating energy will decrease and the demand of cooling energy will increase. This is significant for the electricity

  15. Climate change impacts on crop yield: evidence from China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Taoyuan; Cherry, Todd L; Glomrød, Solveig; Zhang, Tianyi

    2014-11-15

    When estimating climate change impact on crop yield, a typical assumption is constant elasticity of yield with respect to a climate variable even though the elasticity may be inconstant. After estimating both constant and inconstant elasticities with respect to temperature and precipitation based on provincial panel data in China 1980-2008, our results show that during that period, the temperature change contributes positively to total yield growth by 1.3% and 0.4% for wheat and rice, respectively, but negatively by 12% for maize. The impacts of precipitation change are marginal. We also compare our estimates with other studies and highlight the implications of the inconstant elasticities for crop yield, harvest and food security. We conclude that climate change impact on crop yield would not be an issue in China if positive impacts of other socio-economic factors continue in the future. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Climate change impacts on global food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

    2013-08-02

    Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

  17. BR-319: Brazil's Manaus-Porto Velho highway and the potential impact of linking the arc of deforestation to central amazonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fearnside, Philip M; de Alencastro Graça, Paulo Maurício Lima

    2006-11-01

    Brazil's BR-319 Highway linked Manaus, in the state of Amazonas, to Porto Velho, Rondônia, until it became impassable in 1988. Now it is proposed for reconstruction and paving, which would facilitate migration from the "Arc of Deforestation" in the southern part of the Amazon region to new frontiers farther north. The purpose of the highway, which is to facilitate transport to São Paulo of products from factories in the Manaus Free Trade Zone, would be better served by sending the containers by ship to the port of Santos. The lack of a land connection to Manaus currently represents a significant barrier to migration to central and northern Amazonia. Discourse regarding the highway systematically overestimates the highway's benefits and underestimates its impacts. A variety of changes would be needed prior to paving the highway if these potential impacts are to be attenuated. These include zoning, reserve creation, and increased governance in various forms, including deforestation licensing and control programs. More fundamental changes are also needed, especially the abandonment of the long-standing tradition in Brazil of granting squatters' rights to those who invade public land. Organizing Amazonian occupation in such a way that road construction and improvement cease to lead to explosive and uncontrolled deforestation should be a prerequisite for approval of the BR-319 and other road projects for which major impacts are expected. These projects could provide the impetus that is needed to achieve the transition away from appropriation of public land by both small squatters and by grileiros (large-scale illegal claimants). A delay in reconstructing the highway is advisable until appropriate changes can be effected.

  18. The Impacts and Economic Costs of Climate Change in Agriculture and the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, A.; Quiroga, S.; Garrote, L.; Cunningham, R.

    2012-04-01

    This paper provides monetary estimates of the effects of agricultural adaptation to climate change in Europe. The model computes spatial crop productivity changes as a response to climate change linking biophysical and socioeconomic components. It combines available data sets of crop productivity changes under climate change (Iglesias et al 2011, Ciscar et al 2011), statistical functions of productivity response to water and nitrogen inputs, catchment level water availability, and environmental policy scenarios. Future global change scenarios are derived from several socio-economic futures of representative concentration pathways and regional climate models. The economic valuation is conducted by using GTAP general equilibrium model. The marginal productivity changes has been used as an input for the economic general equilibrium model in order to analyse the economic impact of the agricultural changes induced by climate change in the world. The study also includes the analysis of an adaptive capacity index computed by using the socio-economic results of GTAP. The results are combined to prioritize agricultural adaptation policy needs in Europe.

  19. Potential impacts of climate change and variability on groundwater ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Potential impacts of climate change and variability on groundwater resources in Nigeria. ... African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology ... of climate change induced groundwater impacts due to largely multi-scale local and regional heterogeneity, there is need to evaluate groundwater resources, quality and ...

  20. Climatic change and impacts: a general introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fantechi, R.; Almeida-Teixeira, M.E.; Maracchi, G.

    1991-01-01

    These proceedings are divided into six parts containing 29 technical papers. 1. An Overview of the Climatic System, 2. Past climate Changes, 3. Climate Processes and Climate Modelling, 4. Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change, 5. Climatic Impacts, 6. STUDENTS' PAPERS

  1. Identifying alternate pathways for climate change to impact inland recreational fishers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Len M.; Fenichel, Eli P.; Fulton, David C.; Mendelsohn, Robert; Smith, Jordan W.; Tunney, Tyler D.; Lynch, Abigail J.; Paukert, Craig P.; Whitney, James E.

    2016-01-01

    Fisheries and human dimensions literature suggests that climate change influences inland recreational fishers in North America through three major pathways. The most widely recognized pathway suggests that climate change impacts habitat and fish populations (e.g., water temperature impacting fish survival) and cascades to impact fishers. Climate change also impacts recreational fishers by influencing environmental conditions that directly affect fishers (e.g., increased temperatures in northern climates resulting in extended open water fishing seasons and increased fishing effort). The final pathway occurs from climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts (e.g., refined energy policies result in higher fuel costs, making distant trips more expensive). To address limitations of past research (e.g., assessing climate change impacts for only one pathway at a time and not accounting for climate variability, extreme weather events, or heterogeneity among fishers), we encourage researchers to refocus their efforts to understand and document climate change impacts to inland fishers.

  2. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aanund Killingtveit

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Currently, hydropower accounts for close to 16% of the world’s total power supply and is the world’s most dominant (86% source of renewable electrical energy. The key resource for hydropower generation is runoff, which is dependent on precipitation. The future global climate is uncertain and thus poses some risk for the hydropower generation sector. The crucial question and challenge then is what will be the impact of climate change on global hydropower generation and what are the resulting regional variations in hydropower generation potential? This paper is a study that aims to evaluate the changes in global hydropower generation resulting from predicted changes in climate. The study uses an ensemble of simulations of regional patterns of changes in runoff, computed from global circulation models (GCM simulations with 12 different models. Based on these runoff changes, hydropower generation is estimated by relating the runoff changes to hydropower generation potential through geographical information system (GIS, based on 2005 hydropower generation. Hydropower data obtained from EIA (energy generation, national sites, FAO (water resources and UNEP were used in the analysis. The countries/states were used as computational units to reduce the complexities of the analysis. The results indicate that there are large variations of changes (increases/decreases in hydropower generation across regions and even within regions. Globally, hydropower generation is predicted to change very little by the year 2050 for the hydropower system in operation today. This change amounts to an increase of less than 1% of the current (2005 generation level although it is necessary to carry out basin level detailed assessment for local impacts which may differ from the country based values. There are many regions where runoff and hydropower generation will increase due to increasing precipitation, but also many regions where there will be a decrease. Based on this

  3. Burden Sharing with Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavoni, M.; van Vuuren, D.; De Cian, E.; Marangoni, G.; Hof, A.

    2014-12-01

    Efficiency and equity have been at the center of the climate change policy making since the very first international environmental agreements on climate change, though over time how to implement these principles has taken different forms. Studies based on Integrated Assessment Models have also shown that the economic effort of achieving a 2 degree target in a cost-effective way would differ widely across regions (Tavoni et al. 2013) because of diverse economic and energy structure, baseline emissions, energy and carbon intensity. Policy instruments, such as a fully-fledged, global emission trading schemes can be used to pursuing efficiency and equity at the same time but the literature has analyzed the compensations required to redistribute only mitigation costs. However, most of these studies have neglected the potential impacts of climate change. In this paper we use two integrated assessment models -FAIR and WITCH- to explore the 2°C policy space when accounting for climate change impacts. Impacts are represented via two different reduced forms equations, which despite their simplicity allows us exploring the key sensitivities- Our results show that in a 2 degree stabilization scenarios residual damages remain significant (see Figure 1) and that if you would like to compensate those as part of an equal effort scheme - this would lead to a different allocation than focusing on a mitigation based perspective only. The residual damages and adaptation costs are not equally distributed - and while we do not cover the full uncertainty space - with 2 different models and 2 sets of damage curves we are still able to show quite similar results in terms of vulnerable regions and the relative position of the different scenarios. Therefore, accounting for the residual damages and the associated adaptation costs on top of the mitigation burden increases and redistributes the full burden of total climate change.

  4. Impact of styrenic polymer one-step hyper-cross-linking on volatile organic compound adsorption and desorption performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghafari, Mohsen; Atkinson, John D

    2018-06-05

    A novel one-step hyper-cross-linking method, using 1,2-dichloroethane (DCE) and 1,6-dichlorohexane (DCH) cross-linkers, expands the micropore volume of commercial styrenic polymers. Performance of virgin and modified polymers was evaluated by measuring hexane, toluene, and methyl-ethyl-ketone (MEK) adsorption capacity, adsorption/desorption kinetics, and desorption efficiency. Hyper-cross-linked polymers have up to 128% higher adsorption capacity than virgin polymers at P/P 0  = 0.05 due to micropore volume increases up to 330%. Improvements are most pronounced with the DCE cross-linker. Hyper-cross-linking has minimal impact on hexane adsorption kinetics, but adsorption rates for toluene and MEK decrease by 6-41%. Desorption rates decreased (3-36%) for all materials after hyper-cross-linking, with larger decreases for DCE hyper-cross-linked polymers due to smaller average pore widths. For room temperature desorption, 20-220% more adsorbate remains in hyper-cross-linked polymers after regeneration compared to virgin materials. DCE hyper-cross-linked polymers have 13-92% more residual adsorbate than DCH counterparts. Higher temperatures were required for DCE hyper-cross-linked polymers to completely desorb VOCs compared to the DCH hyper-cross-linked and virgin counterparts. Results show that the one-step hyper-cross-linking method for modifying styrenic polymers improves adsorption capacity because of added micropores, but decreases adsorption/desorption kinetics and desorption efficiency for large VOCs due to a decrease in average pore width. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. The impact of climate change on an emerging coastline affected by discontinuous permafrost: Manitounuk Strait, northern Quebec

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beaulieu, N.; Allard, M. [Laval Univ., Centre of Nordic Studies, Ste-Foy, PQ (Canada)

    2003-10-01

    When results of a field survey and aerial photographs were compared and analyzed, it was observed that permafrost-affected sectors of the coastline along the Manitounuk Strait receded at an increasing rate between 1950 and 1995. During the same period sand beaches at the mouths of streams and rock and till shorelines on headlands were observed to prograde at the pace of isostatic uplift. This study attempts to answer the question whether recent climate warming has had a counterbalancing effect on land uplift, balancing out the coastal prograding associated with this uplift. Results showed that warming during the twentieth century induced its degradation through a succession of environmental impacts driven by climate change. The chain of impacts involved forest growth linked to slowly warming summers and ecologically driven changes in snow cover and groundwater flow, creating a positive feedback loop that accelerated thermokarst over the 50-year period of gradual change in seasonal climate. This degradation is believed to have been responsible for localized coastal retreat along the coastline that is otherwise prograding because of fast land uplift. Littoral factors also played a role, mainly by removing thawed and slumped sediments. 31 refs., 2 tabs., 7 figs.

  6. Synchronous volcanic eruptions and abrupt climate change ∼17.7 ka plausibly linked by stratospheric ozone depletion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McConnell, Joseph R; Burke, Andrea; Dunbar, Nelia W; Köhler, Peter; Thomas, Jennie L; Arienzo, Monica M; Chellman, Nathan J; Maselli, Olivia J; Sigl, Michael; Adkins, Jess F; Baggenstos, Daniel; Burkhart, John F; Brook, Edward J; Buizert, Christo; Cole-Dai, Jihong; Fudge, T J; Knorr, Gregor; Graf, Hans-F; Grieman, Mackenzie M; Iverson, Nels; McGwire, Kenneth C; Mulvaney, Robert; Paris, Guillaume; Rhodes, Rachael H; Saltzman, Eric S; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P; Steffensen, Jørgen Peder; Taylor, Kendrick C; Winckler, Gisela

    2017-09-19

    Glacial-state greenhouse gas concentrations and Southern Hemisphere climate conditions persisted until ∼17.7 ka, when a nearly synchronous acceleration in deglaciation was recorded in paleoclimate proxies in large parts of the Southern Hemisphere, with many changes ascribed to a sudden poleward shift in the Southern Hemisphere westerlies and subsequent climate impacts. We used high-resolution chemical measurements in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide, Byrd, and other ice cores to document a unique, ∼192-y series of halogen-rich volcanic eruptions exactly at the start of accelerated deglaciation, with tephra identifying the nearby Mount Takahe volcano as the source. Extensive fallout from these massive eruptions has been found >2,800 km from Mount Takahe. Sulfur isotope anomalies and marked decreases in ice core bromine consistent with increased surface UV radiation indicate that the eruptions led to stratospheric ozone depletion. Rather than a highly improbable coincidence, circulation and climate changes extending from the Antarctic Peninsula to the subtropics-similar to those associated with modern stratospheric ozone depletion over Antarctica-plausibly link the Mount Takahe eruptions to the onset of accelerated Southern Hemisphere deglaciation ∼17.7 ka.

  7. Changing Groundwater-Surface Water Interactions Impact Stream Chemistry and Ecology at the Arctic-Boreal Transition in Western Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, J. C.; Carey, M.; O'Donnell, J.; Sjoberg, Y.; Zimmerman, C. E.

    2016-12-01

    The arctic-boreal transition zone of Alaska is experiencing rapid change related to unprecedented warming and subsequent loss of permafrost. These changes in turn may affect groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interactions, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystem processes. While recent field and modeling studies have improved our understanding of hydrology in watersheds underlain by thawing permafrost, little is known about how these hydrologic shifts will impact bottom-up controls on stream food webs. To address this uncertainty, we are using an integrative experimental design to link GW-SW interactions to stream biogeochemistry and biota in 10 first-order streams in northwest Alaska. These study streams drain watersheds that span several gradients, including elevation, aspect, and vegetation (tundra vs. forest). We have developed a robust, multi-disciplinary data set to characterize GW-SW interactions and to mechanistically link GW-SW dynamics to water quality and the stream ecosystem. Data includes soil hydrology and chemistry; stream discharge, temperature, and inflow rates; water chemistry (including water isotopes, major ions, carbon concentration and isotopes, nutrients and chlorophyll-a), and invertebrate and fish communities. Stream recession curves indicate a decreasing rate later in the summer in some streams, consistent with seasonal thaw in lower elevation and south-facing catchments. Base cation and water isotope chemistry display similar impacts of seasonal thaw and also suggest the dominance of groundwater in many streams. Coupled with estimates of GW-SW exchange at point, reach, and catchment scales, these results will be used to predict how hydrology and water quality are likely to impact fish habitat and growth given continued warming at the arctic-boreal transition.

  8. Methodologies for assessing socio-economic impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smit, B.

    1993-01-01

    Much of the studies on climate change impacts have focused on physical and biological impacts, yet a knowledge of the social and economic impacts of climate change is likely to have a greater impact on the public and on policymakers. A conventional assessment of the impacts of climate change begins with scenarios of future climate, commonly derived from global climate models translated to a regional scale. Estimates of biophysical conditions provided by such scenarios provide a basis for analyses of human impacts, usually considered sector by sector. The scenario approach, although having considerable merit and appeal, has some noteworthy limitations. It encourages consideration of only a small set of scenarios, requires bold assumptions to be made about adjustments in human systems, provides little direct analysis of sensitivities of human social and economic systems to climate perturbations, and usually invokes the assumption that all factors other than climate are stable and have no synergistic effects on human systems. Conventional studies concentrate on average climate, yet climate is inherently variable. A common response to this situation is to propose further development of climate models, but this is not a sufficient or necessary condition for good and useful assessments of impacts on human activities. Different approaches to socioeconomic impact analysis are needed, and approaches should be considered that include identification of sensitivities in a social or ecological system, identification of critical threshold levels or critical speeds of change in variables, and exploration of alternative methodologies such as process studies, spatial and temporal analogues, and socio-economic systems modelling. 5 refs., 3 figs

  9. The BC-Alberta intertie : impact of regulatory change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Christian, J.; Hughes, K.

    2004-01-01

    The interconnected electricity system between the provinces of British Columbia (BC) and Alberta was discussed with reference to the Cranbrook-Langdon 500 kV line and two 138 kV transmission lines. The lines in British Columbia are owned by BC Hydro and operated by the BC Transmission Corporation, while the lines in Alberta are owned by AltaLink and operated by the Alberta Electric Systems Operator (AESO). The operating terms and conditions are established by an Interconnection Agreement between all parties. The Alberta-BC Intertie was designed to operate at an operating transfer capacity of 1200 MW from BC to Alberta, and 1000 MW from Alberta to BC. The operational limits on Intertie capacity were imposed due to voltage constraints within Alberta during high load periods resulting from insufficient transmission support. It was noted that available capacity is often under-utilized because sometimes it is not economical to schedule into or out of Alberta due to better market conditions in the Pacific Northwest. Transmission users in BC have explicit transmission rights which must be purchased on an hourly basis. However, transmission rights in Alberta follow dispatch of generation through Power Pool bidding. The impact of an under-utilized transmission capacity is higher wholesale prices in both Alberta and in the Pacific Northwest because ratepayers end up paying for the under-used capacity. This presentation also outlined regulatory change in Alberta with reference to consolidation of Alberta's Transmission Administrator, Power Pool Administrator and system controller functions; Alberta's new transmission policy; and, the enhanced role of market surveillance administrator. It also outlined the regulatory change in British Columbia with reference to the creation of the BC Transmission Corporation; the Heritage Contract; and, stepped rates and retail access. The effect of changes on intertie usage in both Alberta and British Columbia were also outlined. 31 refs

  10. Climate change impacts on corn phenology and productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate is changing around the world and will impact future production of all food and feed crops. Corn is no exception to these impacts and to ensure a future supply of this vital crop we must begin to understand how climate impacts both the phenological development of corn and the productivity. Te...

  11. A framework for the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts on water-related activities at the basin scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Anghileri

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available While quantitative assessment of the climate change impact on hydrology at the basin scale is quite addressed in the literature, extension of quantitative analysis to impact on the ecological, economic and social sphere is still limited, although well recognized as a key issue to support water resource planning and promote public participation. In this paper we propose a framework for assessing climate change impact on water-related activities at the basin scale. The specific features of our approach are that: (i the impact quantification is based on a set of performance indicators defined together with the stakeholders, thus explicitly taking into account the water-users preferences; (ii the management policies are obtained by optimal control techniques, linking stakeholder expectations and decision-making; (iii the multi-objective nature of the management problem is fully preserved by simulating a set of Pareto-optimal management policies, which allows for evaluating not only variations in the indicator values but also tradeoffs among conflicting objectives. The framework is demonstrated by application to a real world case study, Lake Como basin (Italy. We show that the most conflicting water-related activities within the basin (i.e. hydropower production and agriculture are likely to be negatively impacted by climate change. We discuss the robustness of the estimated impacts to the climate natural variability and the approximations in modeling the physical system and the socio-economic system, and perform an uncertainty analysis of several sources of uncertainty. We demonstrate that the contribution of natural climate uncertainty is rather remarkable and that, among different modelling uncertainty sources, the one from climate modeling is very significant.

  12. Simulation of Controller Pilot Data Link Communications over VHF Digital Link Mode 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bretmersky, Steven C.; Murawski, Robert; Nguyen, Thanh C.; Raghavan, Rajesh S.

    2004-01-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has established an operational plan for the future Air Traffic Management (ATM) system, in which the Controller Pilot Data Link Communications (CPDLC) is envisioned to evolve into digital messaging that will take on an ever increasing role in controller to pilot communications, significantly changing the way the National Airspace System (NAS) is operating. According to FAA, CPDLC represents the first phase of the transition from the current analog voice system to an International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) compliant system in which digital communication becomes the alternate and perhaps primary method of routine communication. The CPDLC application is an Air Traffic Service (ATS) application in which pilots and controllers exchange messages via an addressed data link. CPDLC includes a set of clearance, information, and request message elements that correspond to existing phraseology employed by current Air Traffic Control (ATC) procedures. These message elements encompass altitude assignments, crossing constraints, lateral deviations, route changes and clearances, speed assignments, radio frequency assignments, and various requests for information. The pilot is provided with the capability to respond to messages, to request clearances and information, to report information, and to declare/rescind an emergency. A 'free text' capability is also provided to exchange information not conforming to defined formats. This paper presents simulated results of the aeronautical telecommunication application Controller Pilot Data Link Communications over VHF Digital Link Mode 3 (VDL Mode 3). The objective of this simulation study was to determine the impact of CPDLC traffic loads, in terms of timely message delivery and capacity of the VDL Mode 3 subnetwork. The traffic model is based on and is used for generating air/ground messages with different priorities. Communication is modeled for the en route domain of the Cleveland

  13. Impact of Geological Changes on Regional and Global Economies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatiana, Skufina; Peter, Skuf'in; Vera, Samarina; Taisiya, Shatalova; Baranov, Sergey

    2017-04-01

    Periods of geological changes such as super continent cycle (300-500 million years), Wilson's cycles (300-900 million years), magmatic-tectonic cycle (150-200 million years), and cycles with smaller periods (22, 100, 1000 years) lead to a basic contradiction preventing forming methodology of the study of impact of geological changes on the global and regional economies. The reason of this contradiction is the differences of theoretical and methodological aspects of the Earth science and economics such as different time scales and accuracy of geological changes. At the present the geological models cannot provide accurate estimation of time and place where geological changes (strong earthquakes, volcanos) are expected. Places of feature (not next) catastrophic events are the only thing we have known. Thus, it is impossible to use the periodicity to estimate both geological changes and their consequences. Taking into accounts these factors we suggested a collection of concepts for estimating impact of possible geological changes on regional and global economies. We illustrated our approach by example of estimating impact of Tohoku earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 on regional and global economies. Based on this example we concluded that globalization processes increase an impact of geological changes on regional and global levels. The research is supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Projects No. 16-06-00056, 16-32-00019, 16-05-00263A).

  14. Climate change and food security: health impacts in developed countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lake, Iain R; Hooper, Lee; Abdelhamid, Asmaa; Bentham, Graham; Boxall, Alistair B A; Draper, Alizon; Fairweather-Tait, Susan; Hulme, Mike; Hunter, Paul R; Nichols, Gordon; Waldron, Keith W

    2012-11-01

    Anthropogenic climate change will affect global food production, with uncertain consequences for human health in developed countries. We investigated the potential impact of climate change on food security (nutrition and food safety) and the implications for human health in developed countries. Expert input and structured literature searches were conducted and synthesized to produce overall assessments of the likely impacts of climate change on global food production and recommendations for future research and policy changes. Increasing food prices may lower the nutritional quality of dietary intakes, exacerbate obesity, and amplify health inequalities. Altered conditions for food production may result in emerging pathogens, new crop and livestock species, and altered use of pesticides and veterinary medicines, and affect the main transfer mechanisms through which contaminants move from the environment into food. All these have implications for food safety and the nutritional content of food. Climate change mitigation may increase consumption of foods whose production reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Impacts may include reduced red meat consumption (with positive effects on saturated fat, but negative impacts on zinc and iron intake) and reduced winter fruit and vegetable consumption. Developed countries have complex structures in place that may be used to adapt to the food safety consequences of climate change, although their effectiveness will vary between countries, and the ability to respond to nutritional challenges is less certain. Climate change will have notable impacts upon nutrition and food safety in developed countries, but further research is necessary to accurately quantify these impacts. Uncertainty about future impacts, coupled with evidence that climate change may lead to more variable food quality, emphasizes the need to maintain and strengthen existing structures and policies to regulate food production, monitor food quality and safety, and

  15. Assessing the likely impacts of climate change on infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holper, Paul; Nolan, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Full text: In 2005, the Victorian Government contracted CSIRO, Maunsell Australia and Phillips Fox to undertake an overview assessment of the likely impacts of climate change on the State's infrastructure, establish the categories of infrastructure most at risk and outline opportunities for adaptation responses. The Government released the assessment in May 2007. Climate change poses a significant risk to infrastructure and its owners, managers and long-term operators. The work was undertaken on the basis that it should not be assumed that future climate and its impacts will simply be an extension of what has been experienced in the past. Major infrastructure items have long useful life spans (20-100 years). A bridge built today is expected to still be in use in tens, if not hundreds, of years. This means that recognition of likely climate change impacts and appropriate adaptation measures should occur now. Recognition of the risks associated with climate change is a valuable first step towards better planning of new infrastructure investments and reducing potential damage to existing infrastructure.lnfrastructure types examined were water, power, telecommunications, transport and buildings. The climate change projections used in this report are based on CSIRO climate modelling, supported by findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climatic and other variables considered were temperature, rainfall, available moisture, humidity, winds, fire-weather frequency and intensity, solar radiation levels and sea-level rise. For each climate change variable identified, we described a worst-case impact for low and high climate change projections for the years 2030 and 2070. The assessment was made on the basis of 'business as usual' with no adaptation responses to climate change. The report also details the current governance structures associated with each infrastructure type. Overall, the report assessed the likely impact of climate change on

  16. Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X.

    2002-01-01

    The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors

  17. Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sloth Madsen, M; Fox Maule, C; MacKellar, N

    2012-01-01

    Impact models investigating climate change effects on food safety often need detailed climate data. The aim of this study was to select climate change projection data for selected crop phenology and mycotoxin impact models. Using the ENSEMBLES database of climate model output, this study...... illustrates how the projected climate change signal of important variables as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity depends on the choice of the climate model. Using climate change projections from at least two different climate models is recommended to account for model uncertainty. To make...... the climate projections suitable for impact analysis at the local scale a weather generator approach was adopted. As the weather generator did not treat all the necessary variables, an ad-hoc statistical method was developed to synthesise realistic values of missing variables. The method is presented...

  18. The regional impacts of climate change: an assessment of vulnerability

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zinyowera, Marufu C; Moss, Richard H; Watson, R. T

    1998-01-01

    .... The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health...

  19. Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gambarelli, G.; Goria, A.

    2004-07-01

    The paper deals with the social and economic dimensions of climate change impacts and adaptation in Italy. The ultimate aim of the paper is to provide policy makers and experts with a conceptual framework, as well as methodological and operational tools for dealing with climate change impacts and adaptation from an economic perspective. In order to do so, first a conceptual and theoretical framework of the economic assessment of climate change impacts is presented and the state of the art about impact assessment studies is briefly analysed. Then, the Italian case is taken into account, by underlying the main impacts and adaptation challenges that are likely to be implied by climate change in the next decades. The analysis of the Italian case is particularly addressed through the description of the methodology and results of two case studies. The first one, dealing mainly with impact assessment, is carried out at the national level and is part of a EC funded project on Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE). The second one is carried out at the local level and focuses on sea level rise impacts and adaptation in a plane south of Rome. The two case studies allow to propose simple and flexible methodologies for the economic impact assessment and the economic valuation of adaptation strategies

  20. Impact of Nonlinear Power Amplifier on Link Adaptation Algorithm of OFDM Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Das, Suvra S.; Tariq, Faisal; Rahman, Muhammad Imadur

    2007-01-01

    The impact of non linear distortion due to High Power Amplifier (HPA) on the performance of Link Adaptation (LA) - Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) based wireless system is analyzed. The performance of both Forward Error Control Coding (FEC) en-coded and uncoded system is evaluated....... LA maximizes the throughput while maintaining a required Block Error Rate (BLER). It is found that when OFDM signal, which has high PAPR, suffers non linear distortion due to non ideal HPA, the LA fails to meet the target BLER. Detailed analysis of the distortion and effects on LA are presented...

  1. Climate change and pastoralism: impacts, consequences and adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrero, M; Addison, J; Bedelian, C; Carabine, E; Havlík, P; Henderson, B; Van De Steeg, J; Thornton, P K

    2016-11-01

    The authors discuss the main climate change impacts on pastoralist societies, including those on rangelands, livestock and other natural resources, and their extended repercussions on food security, incomes and vulnerability. The impacts of climate change on the rangelands of the globe and on the vulnerability of the people who inhabit them will be severe and diverse, and will require multiple, simultaneous responses. In higher latitudes, the removal of temperature constraints might increase pasture production and livestock productivity, but in tropical arid lands, the impacts are highly location specific, but mostly negative. The authors outline several adaptation options, ranging from implementing new technical practices and diversifying income sources to finding institutional support and introducing new market mechanisms, all of which are pivotal for enhancing the capacity of pastoralists to adapt to climate variability and change. Due to the dynamism of all the changes affecting pastoral societies, strategies that lock pastoral societies into specified development pathways could be maladaptive. Flexible and evolving combinations of practices and policies are the key to successful pastoral adaptation.

  2. Climate change impacts and adaptation : a Canadian perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemmen, D.S.; Warren, F.J.

    2004-01-01

    This book summarizes the research that has been conducted in Canada over the past five years on the issue of climate change impacts on key sectors such as water resources, agriculture, forestry, fisheries, coastal zones, transportation, and human health and well-being. The book refers to the growing evidence that climate change is occurring. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) believes that these changes have already contributed to increases in annual precipitation, cloud cover and extreme temperatures over the last 50 years. It suggests that it in order to develop an effective strategy for adaptation, it is necessary to understand the vulnerability of each sector to climate change in terms of the nature of climate change, the climatic sensitivity of the region being considered, and the capacity to adapt to the changes. Adaptation will require a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in order to lower the rate of climate change. Problems associated with water resources include water quality issues that relate to water shortages from droughts, or excesses from floods. The impacts of climate change on agriculture will vary depending on precipitation changes, soil conditions, and land use. Some studies have suggested that higher temperatures would benefit the forestry sector by improving the growth rate of trees, but the increase in the frequency and severity of moisture stress and forest disturbances would create other problems. Adaptations in the fisheries sector may have implications for the water resources, transportation, tourism and human health sectors. The impact of climate change in the coastal zone may include changes in water levels, wave patterns, storm surges, and thickness of seasonal ice cover. The areas that seem most vulnerable to climate change in the transportation sector include northern ice roads, Great Lakes shipping, coastal infrastructure threatened by sea-level rise, and infrastructure located on permafrost

  3. Estimation of climate change impacts on hydrology and floods in Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veijalainen, N.

    2012-07-01

    Climate scenarios project increases in air temperature and precipitation in Finland during the 21st century and these will results in changes in hydrology. In this thesis climate change impacts on hydrology and floods in Finland were estimated with hydrological modelling and several climate scenarios. One of the goals was to understand the influence of different processes and catchment characteristics on the hydrological response to climate change in boreal conditions. The tool of the climate change impact assessment was the conceptual hydrological model WSFS (Watershed Simulation and Forecasting System). The studies employed and compared two methods of transferring the climate change signal from climate models to the WSFS hydrological model (delta change approach and direct bias corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) data). Direct RCM data was used to simulate transient hydrological scenarios for 1951- 2100 and the simulation results were analysed to detect changes in water balance components and trends in discharge series. The results revealed that seasonal changes in discharges in Finland were the clearest impacts of climate change. Air temperature increase will affect snow accumulation and melt, increase winter discharge and decrease spring snowmelt discharge. The impacts of climate change on floods in Finland by 2070-2099 varied considerably depending on the location, catchment characteristics, timing of the floods and climate scenario. Floods caused by spring snowmelt decreased or remained unchanged, whereas autumn and winter floods caused by precipitation increased especially in large lakes and their outflow rivers. Since estimation of climate change impacts includes uncertainties in every step of the long modelling process, the accumulated uncertainties by the end of the process become large. The large differences between results from different climate scenarios highlight the need to use several climate scenarios in climate change impact studies

  4. Let's "Downscale" Linked Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gueret, C.D.M.; de Boer, V.; Schlobach, K.S.

    2014-01-01

    Open data policies and linked data publication are powerful tools for increasing transparency, participatory governance, and accountability. The linked data community proudly emphasizes the economic and societal impact such technology shows. But a closer look proves that the design and deployment of

  5. Organizational Change and Impact of IT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carugati, Andrea; Mola, Lapo

    2008-01-01

    improvements and therefore they need to stop thinking in terms of projects - with a defined goal and timeframe - and start thinking in terms of change processes. However, while much research has been conducted on IT related change, social, organizational, and behavioral consequences associated with information......This section of the book covers topics related to the impact of IT on organizational change. After the recovery from the internet bubble, today's business players are beginning again to invest massively in technological innovation to increase their competitiveness. The world in which these new...

  6. Pilot Study on Potential Impacts of Fisheries-Induced Changes in Zooplankton Mortality on Marine Biogeochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getzlaff, Julia; Oschlies, Andreas

    2017-11-01

    In this pilot study we link the yield of industrial fisheries to changes in the zooplankton mortality in an idealized way accounting for different target species (planktivorous fish—decreased zooplankton mortality; large predators—increased zooplankton mortality). This indirect approach is used in a global coupled biogeochemistry circulation model to estimate the range of the potential impact of industrial fisheries on marine biogeochemistry. The simulated globally integrated response on phytoplankton and primary production is in line with expectations—a high (low) zooplankton mortality results in a decrease (increase) of zooplankton and an increase (decrease) of phytoplankton. In contrast, the local response of zooplankton and phytoplankton depends on the region under consideration: In nutrient-limited regions, an increase (decrease) in zooplankton mortality leads to a decrease (increase) in both zooplankton and phytoplankton biomass. In contrast, in nutrient-replete regions, such as upwelling regions, we find an opposing response: an increase (decrease) of the zooplankton mortality leads to an increase (decrease) in both zooplankton and phytoplankton biomass. The results are further evaluated by relating the potential fisheries-induced changes in zooplankton mortality to those driven by CO2 emissions in a business-as-usual 21st century emission scenario. In our idealized case, the potential fisheries-induced impact can be of similar size as warming-induced changes in marine biogeochemistry.

  7. Climate change impacts in Zhuoshui watershed, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Yi-Chiung; Liu, Pei-Ling; Cheng, Chao-Tzuen; Li, Hsin-Chi; Wu, Tingyeh; Chen, Wei-Bo; Shih, Hung-Ju

    2017-04-01

    There are 5.3 typhoons hit Taiwan per year on average in last decade. Typhoon Morakot in 2009, the most severe typhoon, causes huge damage in Taiwan, including 677 casualty and roughly NT 110 billion (3.3 billion USD) in economic loss. Some researches documented that typhoon frequency will decrease but increase in intensity in western North Pacific region. It is usually preferred to use high resolution dynamical model to get better projection of extreme events; because coarse resolution models cannot simulate intense extreme events. Under that consideration, dynamical downscaling climate data was chosen to describe typhoon satisfactorily. One of the aims for Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform (TCCIP) is to demonstrate the linkage between climate change data and watershed impact models. The purpose is to understand relative disasters induced by extreme rainfall (typhoons) under climate change in watersheds including landslides, debris flows, channel erosion and deposition, floods, and economic loss. The study applied dynamic downscaling approach to release climate change projected typhoon events under RCP 8.5, the worst-case scenario. The Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability (TRIGRS) and FLO-2D models, then, were used to simulate hillslope disaster impacts in the upstream of Zhuoshui River. CCHE1D model was used to elevate the sediment erosion or deposition in channel. FVCOM model was used to asses a flood impact in urban area in the downstream. Finally, whole potential loss associate with these typhoon events was evaluated by the Taiwan Typhoon Loss Assessment System (TLAS) under climate change scenario. Results showed that the total loss will increase roughly by NT 49.7 billion (1.6 billion USD) in future in Zhuoshui watershed in Taiwan. The results of this research could help to understand future impact; however model bias still exists. Because typhoon track is a critical factor to consider regional

  8. Potential future impacts of climatic change on the Great Plains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smit, B.

    1991-01-01

    A synopsis is provided of approaches to impact studies in the Great Plains, findings from studies of future impacts are summarized, and opportunities for enhancing understanding of future impacts are discussed. Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources, forestry, recreation/tourism, and energy are summarized. Impact analyses need to look more rigorously at variability in climate, the probabilities of various climatic conditions, and the sensitivity of social and economic activities to climatic variability. Most economic impact studies have assumed no adaptive behavior on the part of economic decision makers. Credible impact assessments require an improved understanding of the sensitivity and adaptability of sectors to climatic conditions, particularly variability. The energy sector in the Great Plains region is likely to be more sensitive to political developments in the Middle East than to climatic variability and change. Speculation and analysis of climate impacts have focused on supply conditions and demands, yet the sector is more keenly sensitive to policy implications of climatic change, such as the potential for fossil fuel taxes or other legislative or pricing constraints. 28 refs

  9. Potential impacts of climatic change upon geographical distributions of birds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huntley, Brian; Collingham, Yvonne C.; Green, Rhys E.

    2006-01-01

    likely to decrease. Species with restricted distributions and specialized species of particular biomes are likely to suffer the greatest impacts. Migrant species are likely to suffer especially large impacts as climatic change alters both their breeding and wintering areas, as well as critical stopover......Potential climatic changes of the near future have important characteristics that differentiate them from the largest magnitude and most rapid of climatic changes of the Quaternary. These potential climatic changes are thus a cause for considerable concern in terms of their possible impacts upon...... biodiversity. Birds, in common with other terrestrial organisms, are expected to exhibit one of two general responses to climatic change: they may adapt to the changed conditions without shifting location, or they may show a spatial response, adjusting their geographical distribution in response...

  10. Integrated impact assessment of climate change, land use, and adaptation policies on water quality in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trautvetter, Helen; Schoenhart, Martin; Parajaka, Juraj; Schmid, Erwin; Zessner, Matthias

    2017-04-01

    Climate change is one of the major challenges of our time and adds considerable stress to the human society and environment. A change in climate will not only shift general weather patterns, but might also increase the recurrence of extreme weather events such as drought and heavy rainfall. These changes in climatic conditions will affect the quality and quantity of water resources both directly as well as indirectly through autonomous adaptation by farmers (e.g. cultivar choices, fertilization intensity or soil management). This will influence the compliance with the good ecological and chemical status according to the EU Water Framework Directive. We present results from an integrated impact modelling framework (IIMF) to tackle those direct and indirect impacts and analyze policy options for planned adaptation in agricultural land use and sustainable management of land and water resources until 2040. The IIMF is the result of an interdisciplinary collaboration among economists, agronomists, and hydrologists. It consists of the bio-physical process model EPIC, the regional land use optimization model PASMA[grid], the quantitative precipitation/runoff TUWmodel and the surface water emission model MONERIS. Scenarios have been developed and parameterized in collaboration with stakeholders in order to facilitate multi-actor knowledge transfer. The set of climate change scenarios until 2040 includes three scenarios with equal temperature changes but varying precipitation patterns. They are combined with potential socio-economic and policy development. The latter include water protection measures on fertilization management, soil management, or crop rotation choices. We will presented the development of interfaces among the research, the definition of scenarios and major scenario results for Austria. We will focus on nutrient emissions to surface waters, which are the major link between the different models. The results, available at watershed level indicate the

  11. Global climate change impacts in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-06-01

    This report summarizes the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. It is largely based on results of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a and integrates those results wit...

  12. From Theory-Inspired to Theory-Based Interventions: A Protocol for Developing and Testing a Methodology for Linking Behaviour Change Techniques to Theoretical Mechanisms of Action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michie, Susan; Carey, Rachel N; Johnston, Marie; Rothman, Alexander J; de Bruin, Marijn; Kelly, Michael P; Connell, Lauren E

    2018-05-18

    Understanding links between behaviour change techniques (BCTs) and mechanisms of action (the processes through which they affect behaviour) helps inform the systematic development of behaviour change interventions. This research aims to develop and test a methodology for linking BCTs to their mechanisms of action. Study 1 (published explicit links): Hypothesised links between 93 BCTs (from the 93-item BCT taxonomy, BCTTv1) and mechanisms of action will be identified from published interventions and their frequency, explicitness and precision documented. Study 2 (expert-agreed explicit links): Behaviour change experts will identify links between 61 BCTs and 26 mechanisms of action in a formal consensus study. Study 3 (integrated matrix of explicit links): Agreement between studies 1 and 2 will be evaluated and a new group of experts will discuss discrepancies. An integrated matrix of BCT-mechanism of action links, annotated to indicate strength of evidence, will be generated. Study 4 (published implicit links): To determine whether groups of co-occurring BCTs can be linked to theories, we will identify groups of BCTs that are used together from the study 1 literature. A consensus exercise will be used to rate strength of links between groups of BCT and theories. A formal methodology for linking BCTs to their hypothesised mechanisms of action can contribute to the development and evaluation of behaviour change interventions. This research is a step towards developing a behaviour change 'ontology', specifying relations between BCTs, mechanisms of action, modes of delivery, populations, settings and types of behaviour.

  13. Simulating climate change impact on soil erosion using RUSLE model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Climate change, particularly due to the changed precipitation trend, can have a severe impact on soil erosion. The effect is more pronounced on the higher slopes of the Himalayan region. The goal of this study was to estimate the impact of climate change on soil erosion in a watershed of the Himalayan region using ...

  14. Preparing for climate change impacts in Norway's built environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robert Lisoe, K.; Aandahl, G.; Eriksen, S.; Alfsen, K.

    2003-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the Norwegian climate policy and of the practical implications of preparing Norway for climate change, with special emphasis on the challenges confronting the built environment. Although the Norwegian government has been relatively proactive in instituting measures aimed at halting global climate change, less attention has been paid to the challenge of adapting to climate change. The global climate system is likely to undergo changes, regardless of the implementation of abatement policies under the Kyoto Protocol or other regimes. The full range of impacts resulting from these changes is still uncertain; however, it is becoming increasingly clear that adaptation to climate change is necessary and inevitable within several sectors. The potential impacts of climate change in the built environment are now being addressed. Both the functionality of the existing built environment and the design of future buildings are likely to be altered by climate change impacts, and the expected implications of these new conditions are now investigated. However, measures aimed at adjustments within individual sectors, such as altering the criteria and codes of practice for the design and construction of buildings, constitute only a partial adaptation to climate change. In order to adapt effectively, larger societal and intersectoral adjustments are necessary. (author)

  15. Uncertainty in projected impacts of climate change on biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia, Raquel A.

    Evidence for shifts in the phenologies and distributions of species over recent decades has often been attributed to climate change. The prospect of greater and faster changes in climate during the 21st century has spurred a stream of studies anticipating future biodiversity impacts. Yet, uncerta......Evidence for shifts in the phenologies and distributions of species over recent decades has often been attributed to climate change. The prospect of greater and faster changes in climate during the 21st century has spurred a stream of studies anticipating future biodiversity impacts. Yet......, uncertainty is inherent to both projected climate changes and their effects on biodiversity, and needs to be understood before projections can be used. This thesis seeks to elucidate some of the uncertainties clouding assessments of biodiversity impacts from climate change, and explores ways to address them...... models, are shown to be affected by multiple uncertainties. Different model algorithms produce different outputs, as do alternative future climate models and scenarios of future emissions of greenhouse gases. Another uncertainty arises due to omission of species with small sample sizes, which...

  16. Vulnerability of Australian agriculture to climate change: sequencing impacts over IPCC trajectories for adaptation planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mallawaarachchi, Thilak; Hodges, Andrew; Wicks, Santhi; Kokic, Phil; Nelson, Rohan

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: Agricultural systems are susceptible to adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. While the degree of vulnerability is a function of the magnitude and the rate of variation in climate exposure, agricultural systems with a stronger adaptive capacity are likely to be less vulnerable to climate change. In preparing the agriculture sector for ongoing climate change, adaptation planning to moderate potential impacts and to take advantage of opportunities, has emerged as an effective strategic response. Global climate change scenarios developed by the IPCC indicate that changes in climate may alter the production potential of agriculture across many regions. Wide regional variability in productivity, extensive land use and the dominance in rural economies across Australia could expose agriculture to considerable risks from climate change impacts. In many cases these risks could cascade across a range of sectors and vary overtime, reflecting the capacity of exposed enterprises to adapt to a changing climate by taking advantage of opportunities. Effective planning of adaptation responses will require integrated assessments of regional vulnerability to climate risks over IPCC projection trajectories. In this paper, we present a method for estimating and mapping vulnerability to climate risks at the regional level, and apply this method to examine the vulnerability of Australian agriculture to climate change, focusing on case studies drawn from dryland broadacre and irrigated horticulture industries. In developing a conceptual framework for assessing vulnerability and adaptation options, the paper provides a review of key approaches used globally for the assessment of vulnerability to climate change in agriculture. It presents an approach to link global climate change scenario-based projections for assessing economic impacts on industries and regions through a process that maps climate risks to factors contributing

  17. The effects of transformational and change leadership on employees' commitment to a change: a multilevel study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herold, David M; Fedor, Donald B; Caldwell, Steven; Liu, Yi

    2008-03-01

    The effects of transformational leadership on the outcomes of specific change initiatives are not well understood. Conversely, organizational change studies have examined leader behaviors during specific change implementations yet have failed to link these to broader leadership theories. In this study, the authors investigate the relationship between transformational and change leadership and followers' commitment to a particular change initiative as a function of the personal impact of the changes. Transformational leadership was found to be more strongly related to followers' change commitment than change-specific leadership practices, especially when the change had significant personal impact. For leaders who were not viewed as transformational, good change-management practices were found to be associated with higher levels of change commitment. Copyright 2008 APA

  18. Forecasted Impact of Climate Change on Infectious Disease and Health Security in Hawaii by 2050.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canyon, Deon V; Speare, Rick; Burkle, Frederick M

    2016-12-01

    Climate change is expected to cause extensive shifts in the epidemiology of infectious and vector-borne diseases. Scenarios on the effects of climate change typically attribute altered distribution of communicable diseases to a rise in average temperature and altered incidence of infectious diseases to weather extremes. Recent evaluations of the effects of climate change on Hawaii have not explored this link. It may be expected that Hawaii's natural geography and robust water, sanitation, and health care infrastructure renders residents less vulnerable to many threats that are the focus on smaller, lesser developed, and more vulnerable Pacific islands. In addition, Hawaii's communicable disease surveillance and response system can act rapidly to counter increases in any disease above baseline and to redirect resources to deal with changes, particularly outbreaks due to exotic pathogens. The evidence base examined in this article consistently revealed very low climate sensitivity with respect to infectious and mosquito-borne diseases. A community resilience model is recommended to increase adaptive capacity for all possible climate change impacts rather an approach that focuses specifically on communicable diseases. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:797-804).

  19. The Link between the Process of Change and Coaching in an Organization – A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josephine Jim

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this case study was to highlight coaching in the process of change using a real life information technology and operational change project in an institution. It demonstrates the critical importance of coaching in change management, for successful change to occur.Any sustaining change requires ongoing coaching as an integral part of the process. The study heeds a call for adopting coaching to support organizational learning and change. It also attempts to open further research interests in the link between the process of change and coaching, and the benefits of coaching in change management today.

  20. Climate challenge 2012: growth and climate change - Socio-economical impacts of climate change. Conference proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orange-Louboutin, Mylene; Robinet, Olivier; Delalande, Daniel; Reysset, Bertrand; De Perthuis, Christian; Le Treut, Herve; Cottenceau, Jean-Baptiste; Ayong, Alain; Daubaire, Aurelien; Gaudin, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    The contributions of this conference session proposed comments and discussion on the relationship between climate change and 'green' growth, on the status of scientific knowledge on climate change (from global to local), on the way to perform carbon print assessment and to decide which actions to implement, on the costs and opportunity of impacts of climate change, on the economy of adaptation, on the benefits and costs of the adaptation policy, and on impacts of climate change on employment in quantitative terms and in terms of profession types

  1. Multi-model approach to assess the impact of climate change on runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dams, J.; Nossent, J.; Senbeta, T. B.; Willems, P.; Batelaan, O.

    2015-10-01

    The assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology is subject to uncertainties related to the climate change scenarios, stochastic uncertainties of the hydrological model and structural uncertainties of the hydrological model. This paper focuses on the contribution of structural uncertainty of hydrological models to the overall uncertainty of the climate change impact assessment. To quantify the structural uncertainty of hydrological models, four physically based hydrological models (SWAT, PRMS and a semi- and fully distributed version of the WetSpa model) are set up for a catchment in Belgium. Each model is calibrated using four different objective functions. Three climate change scenarios with a high, mean and low hydrological impact are statistically perturbed from a large ensemble of climate change scenarios and are used to force the hydrological models. This methodology allows assessing and comparing the uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios with the uncertainty introduced by the hydrological model structure. Results show that the hydrological model structure introduces a large uncertainty on both the average monthly discharge and the extreme peak and low flow predictions under the climate change scenarios. For the low impact climate change scenario, the uncertainty range of the mean monthly runoff is comparable to the range of these runoff values in the reference period. However, for the mean and high impact scenarios, this range is significantly larger. The uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios is larger than the uncertainty due to the hydrological model structure for the low and mean hydrological impact scenarios, but the reverse is true for the high impact climate change scenario. The mean and high impact scenarios project increasing peak discharges, while the low impact scenario projects increasing peak discharges only for peak events with return periods larger than 1.6 years. All models suggest for all scenarios a

  2. North Atlantic cyclones; trends, impacts and links to large-scale variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trigo, R. M.; Trigo, I. F.; Ramos, A. M.; Paredes, D.; Garcia-Herrera, R.; Liberato, M. L. R.; Valente, M. A.

    2009-04-01

    Based on the cyclone detection and tracking algorithm previously developed (Trigo, 2006) we have assessed the inter-annual variability and cyclone frequency trends between 1960 and 2000 for the Euro-Atlantic sector using the highest spatial resolution available (1.125° x 1.125°) from the ERA-40 Surface Level Pressure. Additionally, trends for the u and v wind speed components are also computed at the monthly and seasonal scales, using the same dataset. All cyclone and wind speed trend maps were computed with the corresponding statistical significance field. Results reveal a significant frequency decrease (increase) in the western Mediterranean (Greenland and Scandinavia), particularly in December, February and March. Seasonal and monthly analysis of wind speed trends shows similar spatial patterns. We show that these changes in the frequency of low pressure centers and the associated wind patterns are partially responsible for trends of the significant height of waves. Throughout the extended winter months (ONDJFM), regions with positive (negative) wind magnitude trends, of up to 5 cm/s per year, often correspond to regions of positive (negative) significant wave height trends. The cyclone and wind speed trends computed for the JFM months are well matched by the corresponding trends in significant wave height, with February being the month with the highest trends (negative south of 50°N up to -3 cm/year, and positive up to 5cm/year just north of Scotland). Using precipitation data from ECMWF reanalyses and a CRU high resolution dataset we show the impact of these trends in cyclone frequencies upon the corresponding precipitation trends in the influenced areas. It is also shown that these changes are partially linked to major shifts on the indices of large-scale patterns modes, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Eastern Atlantic (EA) and the Scandinavian Patterns (SCAN). Trigo, I. F. 2006: Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm-Tracks in

  3. Climate Change Impacts on the Mediterranean Coastal Zones

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brochier, F.; Ramieri, E.

    2001-04-01

    The main objective of this paper is to highlight the potential impacts of changes in climatic conditions and in related variables, which could affect coastal areas, as well as to identify potential response measures which could reduce the vulnerability of coastal systems and enhance their adaptability. Attention will be focused on the Mediterranean basin which is in the climate change context, a zone of great interest and of recent concern at the world scale by some features: strong ocean-atmosphere-land interactions; contrast between the small size of the sea and its significant role in the global climate system; possibility to use it at a scaled down model for the monitoring of environmental and climate evolution; critical environmental conditions of some areas and high human pressure; and strong geographical, socio-economic and climatic contrasts. The first section provides an introduction to the climate change issue, the past trends and the projections of future climate at the global scale. The second section presents the main features of the Mediterranean basin and some relevant regional projections of future climatic variables. The third section focuses on the main likely impacts on the Mediterranean coasts. Different coastal systems - such as islands, deltas, estuaries, coastal wetlands and coastal cities - and different climate change impacts - such as inundation, increased flooding, salinisation, salt water intrusion, desertification, and increased erosion - are addressed in this section. Finally the last section brings some conclusions and identify some strategies of adaptations and directions for future research aimed at improving our ability to predict and assess the local impacts of climate change in the region

  4. Hydroecological impacts of climate change modelled for a lowland UK wetland

    Science.gov (United States)

    House, Andrew; Acreman, Mike; Sorensen, James; Thompson, Julian

    2015-04-01

    Conservation management of wetlands often rests on modifying hydrological functions to establish or maintain desired flora and fauna. Hence the ability to predict the impacts of climate change is highly beneficial. Here, the physically based, distributed model MIKE SHE was used to simulate hydrology for the Lambourn Observatory at Boxford, UK. This comprises a 10 ha lowland riparian wetland protected for conservation, where the degree of variability in the peat, gravel and chalk geology has clouded hydrological understanding. Notably, a weathered layer on the chalk aquifer surface seals it from overlying deposits, yet is highly spatially heterogeneous. Long-term monitoring yielded observations of groundwater and surface water levels for model calibration and validation. Simulated results were consistent with observed data and reproduced the effects of seasonal fluctuations and in-channel macrophyte growth. The adjacent river and subsidiary channel were found to act as head boundaries, exerting a general control on water levels across the site. Discrete areas of groundwater upwellings caused raised water levels at distinct locations within the wetland. These were concurrent to regions where the weathered chalk layer is absent. To assess impacts of climate change, outputs from the UK Climate Projections 2009 ensemble of global climate models for the 2080s are used to obtain monthly percentage changes in climate variables. Changes in groundwater levels were taken from a regional model of the Chalk aquifer. Values of precipitation and evapotranspiration were seen to increase, whilst groundwater levels decreased, resulting in the greater dominance of precipitation. The discrete areas of groundwater upwelling were seen to diminish or disappear. Simulated water levels were linked to specific requirements of wetland plants using water table depth zone diagrams. Increasing depth of winter and summer groundwater levels leads to a loss of Glyceria maxima and Phragmites

  5. Show Me The Data! Data Visualizations Make Climate Change & Climate Impacts Real

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turrin, M.; Ryan, W. B. F.; Porter, D. F.

    2016-12-01

    Today's learner is technology proficient. Whether we reference K12, undergraduate, or life long learners we expect that they are not only comfortable interacting with a range of digital media, from computer, to tablet, to a smart phone, but that they expect it. Technology is a central part of how most of us spend large portions of our day; connecting, communicating, recreating and learning. So why would we expect that today's learners would prefer to read about climate change and climate impacts from plain text? As educators we must embrace cutting edge methods and materials to engage our students and learners, meeting them where they are most comfortable. `Polar Explorer: Sea Level' is an app that uses interactive data maps to engage the users in the story of changing sea level. Designed for a general audience this free app (http://www.polarexplorer.org) is a great resource for life-long learners, teachers, students and the curious public. Built around a series of questions that are structured like book chapters, users select from a range of choices like: What is sea level? Why does sea level change? Where is it changing now? What about the polar regions? What about in the past? Who is vulnerable? Each section moves the user through layers of maps that address causes, impacts, future predictions and special vulnerabilities of a rising sea level. Users can select any pathway to build a story that captures their attention as they interact with the data and move through different layers of the app. Each map is interactive and supported by information 'snippits', audio clips and a link to further information. A series of `quests' are available for the app. Each quest is a story with a main science theme at its center that leads a planned excursion through a series of map layers while revealing a story in the data. The combination of physical science in what and where is sea level changing, with human impacts in the `who is vulnerable', builds a series of stories with

  6. Checking, Sharing, Clicking and Linking: Changing patterns of news use between 2004 and 2014

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costera Meijer, I.; Groot Kormelink, T.

    2014-01-01

    This paper challenges the generally taken-for-granted automatic link between media platforms, media technology and news user practices. It explores what has changed in people’s news consumption by comparing patterns in news use between 2004–2005 and 2011–2014. While new, social and mobile media

  7. Ecological and evolutionary impacts of changing climatic variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vázquez, Diego P; Gianoli, Ernesto; Morris, William F; Bozinovic, Francisco

    2017-02-01

    While average temperature is likely to increase in most locations on Earth, many places will simultaneously experience higher variability in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Although ecologists and evolutionary biologists widely recognize the potential impacts of changes in average climatic conditions, relatively little attention has been paid to the potential impacts of changes in climatic variability and extremes. We review the evidence on the impacts of increased climatic variability and extremes on physiological, ecological and evolutionary processes at multiple levels of biological organization, from individuals to populations and communities. Our review indicates that climatic variability can have profound influences on biological processes at multiple scales of organization. Responses to increased climatic variability and extremes are likely to be complex and cannot always be generalized, although our conceptual and methodological toolboxes allow us to make informed predictions about the likely consequences of such climatic changes. We conclude that climatic variability represents an important component of climate that deserves further attention. © 2015 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  8. Impacts of Land Cover Changes on Climate over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, L.; Frauenfeld, O. W.

    2014-12-01

    Land cover changes can influence regional climate through modifying the surface energy balance and water fluxes, and can also affect climate at large scales via changes in atmospheric general circulation. With rapid population growth and economic development, China has experienced significant land cover changes, such as deforestation, grassland degradation, and farmland expansion. In this study, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is used to investigate the climate impacts of anthropogenic land cover changes over China. To isolate the climatic effects of land cover change, we focus on the CAM and CLM models, with prescribed climatological sea surface temperature and sea ice cover. Two experiments were performed, one with current vegetation and the other with potential vegetation. Current vegetation conditions were derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite observations, and potential vegetation over China was obtained from Ramankutty and Foley's global potential vegetation dataset. Impacts of land cover changes on surface air temperature and precipitation are assessed based on the difference of the two experiments. Results suggest that land cover changes have a cold-season cooling effect in a large region of China, but a warming effect in summer. These temperature changes can be reconciled with albedo forcing and evapotranspiration. Moreover, impacts on atmospheric circulation and the Asian Monsoon is also discussed.

  9. Assessing the hydrological impacts of agricultural changes upstream of the Tunisian World Heritage sea-connected Ichkeul Lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Aouissi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The impact of changes in agricultural land use and practices as a controlling driver of hydrologic response and as a source of diffuse pollution, are studied in the Joumine River basin, discharging into the Ichkeul Lake, northern Tunisia, a UNESCO World Heritage site since 1979. The lake is characterized by a very specific hydrological functioning based on a seasonal alternation of water levels and salinity through its link to the Mediterranean Sea. Three Landsat images, in situ surveys and SWAT modelling were used to simulate and assess streamflows and nitrate loads under retrospective land uses.

  10. Climate Change Impacts on Human Health Due to Changes in Ambient Ozone Concentrations (External Review Draft)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report uses results from a previous report titled Assessment of the Impacts of Global Change on Regional U.S. Air Quality: A Synthesis of Climate Change Impacts on Ground-Level Ozone, a number of high-resolution, spatially explicit population projections developed ...

  11. Papers of the CWRA climate change symposium : understanding climate change impacts on Manitoba's water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This symposium provided an opportunity for discussions on climate change issues with particular reference to the impacts on Manitoba's water resources. The presentations addressed issues of importance to governments, scientists, academics, managers, consultants and the general public. Topics of discussion ranged from climate change impacts on water quality, wetlands, hydropower, fisheries and drought, to adaptation to climate change. Recent advances in global and regional climate modelling were highlighted along with paleo-environmental indicators of climate change. The objective was to provide a better understanding of the science of climate change. The conference featured 16 presentations of which 1 was indexed separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs

  12. Impacts of climate change on living aquatic resources of the world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flittner, G.A.

    1993-01-01

    Anthropogenic forced warming of the Earth due to the greenhouse effect could have profound impacts on the world's living aquatic resources. An extensive review is provided of literature concerning such impacts, including physical changes in the ocean and coastal zone, biological changes in coastal wetlands and estuaries, effects of temperature rises and changes in ice cover on marine species, physical and biological impacts on inland waters, and impacts on fisheries. The principal effects would be caused by the increases in temperature and sea-level rise, but changes in precipitation would also be important. Suitable habitats would generally shift poleward and inland. Species would likely shift in abundances and distribution, thus affecting fisheries. It is likely that global warming will produce collapses of some fisheries and expansions of others. The likelihood of collapse may be aggravated by inadequate management due to insufficient authority, unwillingness to act, or lack of knowledge. Options available for reducing the impact of these changes are discussed, along with research needed to help prepare for climate change. 111 refs

  13. Seasonal changes in mood and behavior are linked to metabolic syndrome.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reeta Rintamäki

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Obesity is a major public health problem worldwide. Metabolic syndrome is a risk factor to the cardiovascular diseases. It has been reported that disruptions of the circadian clockwork are associated with and may predispose to metabolic syndrome. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: 8028 individuals attended a nationwide health examination survey in Finland. Data were collected with a face-to-face interview at home and during an individual health status examination. The waist circumference, height, weight and blood pressure were measured and samples were taken for laboratory tests. Participants were assessed using the ATP-III criteria for metabolic syndrome and with the Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire for their seasonal changes in mood and behavior. Seasonal changes in weight in particular were a risk factor of metabolic syndrome, after controlling for a number of known risk and potential confounding factors. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: Metabolic syndrome is associated with high global scores on the seasonal changes in mood and behavior, and with those in weight in particular. Assessment of these changes may serve as a useful indicator of metabolic syndrome, because of easy assessment. Abnormalities in the circadian clockwork which links seasonal fluctuations to metabolic cycles may predispose to seasonal changes in weight and to metabolic syndrome.

  14. A Simple Forecasting Model Linking Macroeconomic Policy to Industrial Employment Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malley, James R.; Hady, Thomas F.

    A study detailed further a model linking monetary and fiscal policy to industrial employment in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas of four United States regions. The model was used to simulate the impacts on area and regional employment of three events in the economy: changing real gross national product (GNP) via monetary policy, holding the…

  15. Climate Change Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation in the ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate Change Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation in the Lowland and Wetland Areas of Delta State, Nigeria. Project Abstract. Climate change has huge implications for Nigeria and for the rest of the world. This project will enhance knowledge of the key drivers of climate change by creating the Niger Delta regional ...

  16. What will be the impacts of climate change on surface hydrology in France by 2070?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chauveau, Mathilde; Chazot, Sebastien; David, Julian; Norotte, Thomas; Perrin, Charles; Bourgin, Pierre-Yves; Sauquet, Eric; Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Rouchy, Nathalie; Martin, Eric; Maugis, Pascal; De Lacaze, Xavier

    2013-01-01

    Within the Explore 2070 project, an evaluation of the possible impacts of climate change on surface water between the 1961-1990 reference period and the 2046-2065 period was carried out in continental France and i n overseas departments on the basis of the A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario, seven general circulation models an d two hydrological models (Isba-Modcou and GR4J). In continental France, results indicate: (1) a possible increase in ai r temperature between +1.4 deg. C and +3 deg. C; (2) an uncertain evolution of precipitation, most models however agreeing on a decreasing trend in summer precipitation; (3) a significant decrease (10% to 40%) of mean annual flows at the country scale, especially pronounced in the Seine-Normandie and Adour-Garonne districts; (4) a strong decrease in summer lo w flows in most basins; (5) more heterogeneous and less significant evolutions for floods. A special care was given to the quantification of the uncertainties linked to these results. They provide an indication of the significance of projected changes. The evolutions calculated in the overseas zones can be considered non-significant given the level of uncertainty linked to the hydro-climatic modelling chain. These results urge to implement adaptation strategies based on a better management of water resources, among others. (authors)

  17. Impact of climate change on Taiwanese power market determined using linear complementarity model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tung, Ching-Pin; Tseng, Tze-Chi; Huang, An-Lei; Liu, Tzu-Ming; Hu, Ming-Che

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Impact of climate change on average temperature is estimated. ► Temperature elasticity of demand is measured. ► Impact of climate change on Taiwanese power market determined. -- Abstract: The increase in the greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere causes significant changes in climate patterns. In turn, this climate change affects the environment, ecology, and human behavior. The emission of greenhouse gases from the power industry has been analyzed in many studies. However, the impact of climate change on the electricity market has received less attention. Hence, the purpose of this research is to determine the impact of climate change on the electricity market, and a case study involving the Taiwanese power market is conducted. First, the impact of climate change on temperature is estimated. Next, because electricity demand can be expressed as a function of temperature, the temperature elasticity of demand is measured. Then, a linear complementarity model is formulated to simulate the Taiwanese power market and climate change scenarios are discussed. Therefore, this paper establishes a simulation framework for calculating the impact of climate change on electricity demand change. In addition, the impact of climate change on the Taiwanese market is examined and presented.

  18. The impact of climate change on hydro-electricity generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Musy, A.; Music, B.; Roy, R.

    2008-01-01

    Hydropower is the leading source of electrical production in many countries. It is a clean and renewable source and certainly will continue to play an important role in the future energy supply. However, the effects of climate change on this valuable resource remain questionable. In order to identify the potential initiatives that the hydropower industry may undertake, it is important to determine the current state of knowledge of the impacts of climate change on hydrological variables at regional and local scales. Usually, the following steps are taken. First, general circulation models (GCMs) are used to simulate future climate under assumed greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Then, different techniques (statistical downscaling/regional climate models) are applied to downscale the GCM outputs to the appropriate scales of hydrological models. Finally, hydrologic models are employed to simulate the effects of climate change at regional and local scales. Outputs from these models serve as inputs to water management models that give more details about hydropower production. In the present study, realized by OURANOS upon the request of CEATI, a critical review of the methods used to determine impact of climate change on water resources and hydropower generation is carried out. The major results from recent studies worldwide are reported and future scientific actions to better understand climate change impacts on the hydrological regime are identified. The study is expected to provide direction for the hydropower industry to mitigate the impacts of climate change. (author)

  19. A second look at the impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ausubel, J.H.

    1991-01-01

    In an effort to summarize popular perceptions of the human impacts of global warming, the author scanned magazine and newspaper articles and records of Congressional hearings, and looked at visual material ranging from book covers and cartoons to educational video tapes. He noticed that certain themes were sounded with confidence again and again, and that eight hypotheses seemed to form the core of the conventional wisdom. The eight hypotheses are: (1) faster change is worse; (2) waiting to make policy and to take action will drive up the costs of response; (3) there are only losers from climatic change; (4) the most important impacts will be on agriculture and from sea level rise; (5) changes in extremes will be more important than changes in means; (6) the changes envisioned are unprecedented; (7) impacts will be worse on less-developed countries than on developed countries; and (8) there are hedging strategies that are clearly economical. In this article, the author makes an effort to test these hypotheses against research findings from the literature about the impacts of climate change, which has burgeoned since the late 1970s. As with any group of hypotheses, some hold up better than others on close inspection; a few appear to bear little relation to what evidence has been gathered. He offers a revised set of statements and some thoughts about the directions for future research and policy debate that are suggested by this exercise

  20. Economic impacts associated with pure taxable capacity changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjornstad, D.J.

    1978-01-01

    An attempt is made to broaden the purview of fiscal impact analysis to include impacts on the local private sector that may stem from local public sector changes. More specifically, attention is focused on the limiting case, in which new private sector development yields positive changes in fiscal capacity, but does not increase public service demands or interact with the local private sector. This phenomenon is termed a ''pure'' change in fiscal capacity, or, stated differently, pure tax revenue importation. Interest in this issue stems from an analysis of the local impacts of constructing and operating nuclear power stations. Nuclear power stations, like other electrical generating facilities, are characterized by large capital-labor ratios, implying that the impact of siting would be to increase local taxable capacity, via the property tax base, to a greater extent than local private sector activity, via new hirings. Moreover, a small labor force implies a modest change in the demand for local public services, and facilities of this nature by themselves demand few, if any, public services. A nuclear power station, however, may be distinguished from other electrical generating facilities through siting regulations that require locating in a low population density area, a fact which ensures the influence on the community will be substantial. The question of how and to what degree feedback effects from local public to local private sector may take place is described

  1. Impacts of Climate Change on Inequities in Child Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charmian M. Bennett

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses an often overlooked aspect of climate change impacts on child health: the amplification of existing child health inequities by climate change. Although the effects of climate change on child health will likely be negative, the distribution of these impacts across populations will be uneven. The burden of climate change-related ill-health will fall heavily on the world’s poorest and socially-disadvantaged children, who already have poor survival rates and low life expectancies due to issues including poverty, endemic disease, undernutrition, inadequate living conditions and socio-economic disadvantage. Climate change will exacerbate these existing inequities to disproportionately affect disadvantaged children. We discuss heat stress, extreme weather events, vector-borne diseases and undernutrition as exemplars of the complex interactions between climate change and inequities in child health.

  2. Public Health-Related Impacts of Climate Change inCalifornia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drechsler, D.M.; Motallebi, N.; Kleeman, M.; Cayan, D.; Hayhoe,K.; Kalkstein, L.S.; Miller, N.L.; Jin, J.; VanCuren, R.A.

    2005-12-01

    In June 2005 Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger issued Executive Order S-3-05 that set greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for California, and directed the Secretary of the California Environmental Protection Agency to report to the governor and the State legislature by January 2006 and biannually thereafter on the impacts to California of global warming, including impacts to water supply, public health, agriculture, the coastline, and forestry, and to prepare and report on mitigation and adaptation plans to combat these impacts. This report is a part of the report to the governor and legislature, and focuses on public health impacts that have been associated with climate change. Considerable evidence suggests that average ambient temperature is increasing worldwide, that temperatures will continue to increase into the future, and that global warming will result in changes to many aspects of climate, including temperature, humidity, and precipitation (McMichael and Githeko, 2001). It is expected that California will experience changes in both temperature and precipitation under current trends. Many of the changes in climate projected for California could have ramifications for public health (McMichael and Githeko, 2001), and this document summarizes the impacts judged most likely to occur in California, based on a review of available peer-reviewed scientific literature and new modeling and statistical analyses. The impacts identified as most significant to public health in California include mortality and morbidity related to temperature, air pollution, vector and water-borne diseases, and wildfires. There is considerable complexity underlying the health of a population with many contributing factors including biological, ecological, social, political, and geographical. In addition, the relationship between climate change and changes in public health is difficult to predict for the most part, although more detailed information is available on temperature

  3. Health Impact of Climate Change in Older People: An Integrative Review and Implications for Nursing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leyva, Erwin William A; Beaman, Adam; Davidson, Patricia M

    2017-11-01

    Older people account for the highest proportion of mortality from extreme weather events associated with climate change. This article aims to describe the health impacts of climate change on older people. An integrative review was conducted with 30 studies retrieved from PubMed, EBSCO, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) on climate stressors, determinants of resilient capacity, risk factors, and health outcomes. Heat, temperature variability, and air pollution increase mortality risk in older people, especially from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Floods are linked with increasing incidence of post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, and anxiety. Facing these adversities, older people exhibit both vulnerability and resilience. Research gaps exist in understanding the full spectrum of the resilience experience of older people, and appreciating areas wherein nursing can play a pivotal role. Recognizing the vulnerabilities of older people in the context of climate change is important. Identifying opportunities to promote resilience is an important focus for nurses to develop tailored and targeted nursing interventions. © 2017 Sigma Theta Tau International.

  4. National and regional climate change impact assessments in the forestry sector. Workshop summary and abstracts of oral and poster presentations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindner, M [ed.

    2000-07-01

    Climate change is likely to affect forests and the forest industry during the 21{sup st} century. Different processes in forest ecosystems and the forest sector are sensitive to climate and many different projects have been conducted, in which the scale of study varied from the individual leaf to the whole globe. Several attempts have been made to link impact models (e.g., ecological and socio-economic models), and to integrate them in national or regional climate impact assessment studies. However, integration of climate impact assessments for the forestry sector is still a relatively new issue on the research agenda. From November 10 to 13, 1999 the Postdam Institue for Climate Impact Research and the European Forest Institute organised a workshop in Wenddoche near Belzig (Germany) to bring together individuals and research groups from the currently developing research community, to provide a forum for the exchange of experience, and to stimulate further research collaboration. The workshop attracted 31 scientists from 12 countries, representing a wide range of disciplines covering ecophysiology, soils, forest ecology, growth and yield, silviculture, remote sensing, forest policy, and forest economics. Several presentations investigated possible impacts of climate change on forest growth and development. A second major topic was the carbon budget and the possible contribution of forestry to carbon dioxide mitigation. The third important focus was the application of economic models to estimate socio-economic consequences of changes in forest productivity and the linkage of ecological and economic models. Non-timber forest benefits were addressed in one regional impact assessment and in two national integrated assessments from the U.S. and Germany. The latter also included social components with the involvement of stakeholders and the decision making of forest owners under global change.

  5. Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Services in High Mountain Areas: A Literature Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignacio Palomo

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available High mountain areas are experiencing some of the earliest and greatest impacts of climate change. However, knowledge on how climate change impacts multiple ecosystem services that benefit different stakeholder groups remains scattered in the literature. This article presents a review of the literature on climate change impacts on ecosystem services benefiting local communities and tourists in high mountain areas. Results show a lack of studies focused on the global South, especially where there are tropical glaciers, which are likely to be the first to disappear. Climate change impacts can be classified as impacts on food and feed, water availability, natural hazards regulation, spirituality and cultural identity, aesthetics, and recreation. In turn, climate change impacts on infrastructure and accessibility also affect ecosystem services. Several of these impacts are a direct threat to the lives of mountain peoples, their livelihoods and their culture. Mountain tourism is experiencing abrupt changes too. The magnitude of impacts make it necessary to strengthen measures to adapt to climate change in high mountain areas.

  6. Geologic drivers of late ordovician faunal change in laurentia: investigating links between tectonics, speciation, and biotic invasions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David F Wright

    Full Text Available Geologic process, including tectonics and global climate change, profoundly impact the evolution of life because they have the propensity to facilitate episodes of biogeographic differentiation and influence patterns of speciation. We investigate causal links between a dramatic faunal turnover and two dominant geologic processes operating within Laurentia during the Late Ordovician: the Taconian Orogeny and GICE related global cooling. We utilize a novel approach for elucidating the relationship between biotic and geologic changes using a time-stratigraphic, species-level evolutionary framework for articulated brachiopods from North America. Phylogenetic biogeographic analyses indicate a fundamental shift in speciation mode-from a vicariance to dispersal dominated macroevolutionary regime-across the boundary between the Sandbian to Katian Stages. This boundary also corresponds to the onset of renewed intensification of tectonic activity and mountain building, the development of an upwelling zone that introduced cool, nutrient-rich waters into the epieric seas of eastern Laurentia, and the GICE isotopic excursion. The synchronicity of these dramatic geologic, oceanographic, and macroevolutionary changes supports the influence of geologic events on biological evolution. Together, the renewed tectonic activity and oceanographic changes facilitated fundamental changes in habitat structure in eastern North America that reduced opportunities for isolation and vicariance. They also facilitated regional biotic dispersal of taxa that led to the subsequent establishment of extrabasinal (=invasive species and may have led to a suppression of speciation within Laurentian faunas. Phylogenetic biogeographic analysis further indicates that the Richmondian Invasion was a multidirectional regional invasion event that involved taxa immigrating into the Cincinnati region from basins located near the continental margins and within the continental interior.

  7. Human-mediated drivers of changeimpacts on coastal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Human-mediated drivers of changeimpacts on coastal ecosystems and marine ... of global change because they are located at the land–ocean interface and ... upwelling regimes are all being affected by human-mediated climate change.

  8. Children: a critical link for changing driving behaviour

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Brien, C. [York Univ., Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2001-08-01

    Sustainable transportation is a pressing issue, according to Transport Canada, the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy, the Centre for Sustainable Transportation and several others. To meet Canada's commitment to reducing the carbon dioxide emissions by 20 per cent by 2005, reducing the number of kilometres driven seems to be the only viable solution. Improving air quality by reducing the use of cars will lessen the negative impact in children. Some of the strategies proposed include compact, mixed-use communities, user fees, increased use of public transit are combined with a requirement for greater public education and awareness. Several studies have demonstrated that increased knowledge of an issue alone does not lead to changes in behaviour. One strategy recommended is called social marketing, by fostering changes in norms, providing prompts, obtaining public commitments and the removal of barriers. Raising the profile of children in sustainable transportation makes parents more receptive to information about child-friendly transportation. Some of the impacts of cars on children are: traffic fatalities, less than 50 per cent of children now walk to school, the average physical activity guidelines for children are not met in two thirds of children, obesity, reduced independent mobility of children, emotional distress following an involvement in a traffic accident and more. Some programs such as Way to Go, Walking School Bus, and Active and Safe Routes to School have been implemented in many communities and were found to be successful and additional funding to these programs might be more efficient than conventional education programs to alter behaviour toward sustainable transportation. Get the children to influence their parents. 25 refs., 4 figs.

  9. Adaptation strategies for health impacts of climate change in Western Australia: Application of a Health Impact Assessment framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spickett, Jeffery T.; Brown, Helen L.; Katscherian, Dianne

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing the globe and there is substantial evidence that this will result in a number of health impacts, regardless of the level of greenhouse gas mitigation. It is therefore apparent that a combined approach of mitigation and adaptation will be required to protect public health. While the importance of mitigation is recognised, this project focused on the role of adaptation strategies in addressing the potential health impacts of climate change. The nature and magnitude of these health impacts will be determined by a number of parameters that are dependent upon the location. Firstly, climate change will vary between regions. Secondly, the characteristics of each region in terms of population and the ability to adapt to changes will greatly influence the extent of the health impacts that are experienced now and into the future. Effective adaptation measures therefore need to be developed with these differences in mind. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used to consider the implications of climate change on the health of the population of Western Australia (WA) and to develop a range of adaptive responses suited to WA. A broad range of stakeholders participated in the HIA process, providing informed input into developing an understanding of the potential health impacts and potential adaptation strategies from a diverse sector perspective. Potential health impacts were identified in relation to climate change predictions in WA in the year 2030. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed using a qualitative process that considered the consequences and the likelihood of the health impact occurring. Adaptations were then developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by Government for future decision making. The periodic application of a HIA framework is seen as an ideal tool to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to

  10. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R.

    2009-12-01

    Adaptation measures improve our ability to cope with or avoid harmful climate impacts and take advantage of beneficial ones, now and as climate varies and changes. Adaptation and mitigation are necessary elements of an effective response to climate change. Adaptation options also have the potential to moderate harmful impacts of current and future climate variability and change. The Global Climate Change Impacts Report identifies examples of adaptation-related actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change, as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change such as urban air pollution and heat waves. Some adaptation options that are currently being pursued in various regions and sectors to deal with climate change and/or other environmental issues are identified in this report. A range of adaptation responses can be employed to reduce risks through redesign or relocation of infrastructure, sustainability of ecosystem services, increased redundancy of critical social services, and operational improvements. Adapting to climate change is an evolutionary process and requires both analytic and deliberative decision support. Many of the climate change impacts described in the report have economic consequences. A significant part of these consequences flow through public and private insurance markets, which essentially aggregate and distribute society's risk. However, in most cases, there is currently insufficient robust information to evaluate the practicality, efficiency, effectiveness, costs, or benefits of adaptation measures, highlighting a need for research. Adaptation planning efforts such as that being conducted in New York City and the Colorado River will be described. Climate will be continually changing, moving at a relatively rapid rate, outside the range to which society has adapted in the past. The precise amounts and timing of these changes will not be known with certainty. The

  11. Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandryk, M.; Reidsma, P.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2012-01-01

    Towards 2050, climate change is one of the possible drivers that will change the farming landscape, but market, policy and technological development may be at least equally important. In the last decade, many studies assessed impacts of climate change and specific adaptation strategies. However,

  12. Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Nigeria | Osuafor ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate change is brought about by natural as well as man-made factors. Climate change or global warming has negative impact on the global environment. Some of these devastating effects include volcano, landslide, erosion, flooding, drought, pests and diseases. These factors in turn impact on agriculture and ...

  13. Human-induced climate change: the impact of land-use change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gries, Thomas; Redlin, Margarete; Ugarte, Juliette Espinosa

    2018-02-01

    For hundreds of years, human activity has modified the planet's surface through land-use practices. Policies and decisions on how land is managed and land-use changes due to replacement of forests by agricultural cropping and grazing lands affect greenhouse gas emissions. Agricultural management and agroforestry and the resulting changes to the land surface alter the global carbon cycle as well as the Earth's surface albedo, both of which in turn change the Earth's radiation balance. This makes land-use change the second anthropogenic source of climate change after fossil fuel burning. However, the scientific research community has so far not been able to identify the direction and magnitude of the global impact of land-use change. This paper examines the effects of net carbon flux from land-use change on temperature by applying Granger causality and error correction models. The results reveal a significant positive long-run equilibrium relationship between land-use change and the temperature series as well as an opposing short-term effect such that land-use change tends to lead to global warming; however, a rise in temperature causes a decline in land-use change.

  14. Estimating Non-Market Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rothman, D.S.; Amelung, B.; Polome, P.

    2003-01-01

    A number of studies over the past few decades have attempted to estimate the potential impacts of climate change and climate policy. For reasons related to, inter alia, our incomplete understanding of the workings of many natural and social systems, the tremendous spatial and temporal variability in these systems, and the long time frames over which the issue of climate change will play out, there are large degrees of uncertainty in these estimates. Some of the most rancorous debates, however, have focused on those studies that have attempted to place economic values on these impacts. This should not be surprising as the outcomes of these studies have played an important role in the debates over climate policy. Rightly or wrongly, the estimates presented in these studies are often held up against similar estimates of the costs of mitigating against climate change. The process of economic valuation of environmental and social issues is still relatively young, much less its application to the potential impacts of climate change and climate policy. Issues such as climate change push existing techniques to their limits, and possibly beyond. Among the topics that have raised the most concern are the choice of the proper baseline against which to make comparisons, the treatment of uncertainty in human and natural systems, incomplete accounting, the actual valuation of specific impacts, and the aggregation of impacts over time and across widely differing societies. Some of the more recent studies have tried to address these issues, albeit not always satisfactorily. One aspect that makes the economic valuation of environmental and social issues difficult is that it requires addressing impacts that are not typically associated with economic markets, so called nonmarket impacts. In addition to not being traded in markets, many of these impacts affect goods and services that have the characteristic of being public goods, i.e. it is not possible to restrict their use to a

  15. Climate Change and Nigerian Soils: Vulnerability, Impact and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article reviewed the impact of climate change on our soils and suggested measures to combat or mitigate its negative effects on sustainable soil productivity. Climate change occurs when a situation in which a change in climate continues in one direction at a rapid rate and for an unusual long period of time. The article ...

  16. Linking the effects of land use change with water quality and discharge :an integrated approach

    OpenAIRE

    Fauss, Lynn Michael

    1992-01-01

    Hydrologic and water-quality equilibria are greatly affected by changing land use. This study presents a methodology that integrates the use of remote sensing, geographical information systems (GIS) and water-quality modeling. Archived aerial photography proved to be a valuable source of historical land use data. GIS technology was used to compile and analyze spatial data. A comprehensive watershed model was used to link the effects of land use change to water quali...

  17. Hydrological impacts of global land cover change and human water use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. H. C. Bosmans

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Human impacts on global terrestrial hydrology have been accelerating during the 20th century. These human impacts include the effects of reservoir building and human water use, as well as land cover change. To date, many global studies have focussed on human water use, but only a few focus on or include the impact of land cover change. Here we use PCR-GLOBWB, a combined global hydrological and water resources model, to assess the impacts of land cover change as well as human water use globally in different climatic zones. Our results show that land cover change has a strong effect on the global hydrological cycle, on the same order of magnitude as the effect of human water use (applying irrigation, abstracting water, for industrial use for example, including reservoirs, etc.. When globally averaged, changing the land cover from that of 1850 to that of 2000 increases discharge through reduced evapotranspiration. The effect of land cover change shows large spatial variability in magnitude and sign of change depending on, for example, the specific land cover change and climate zone. Overall, land cover effects on evapotranspiration are largest for the transition of tall natural vegetation to crops in energy-limited equatorial and warm temperate regions. In contrast, the inclusion of irrigation, water abstraction and reservoirs reduces global discharge through enhanced evaporation over irrigated areas and reservoirs as well as through water consumption. Hence, in some areas land cover change and water distribution both reduce discharge, while in other areas the effects may partly cancel out. The relative importance of both types of impacts varies spatially across climatic zones. From this study we conclude that land cover change needs to be considered when studying anthropogenic impacts on water resources.

  18. 2700 years of Mediterranean environmental change in central Italy: a synthesis of sedimentary and cultural records to interpret past impacts of climate on society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mensing, Scott A.; Tunno, Irene; Sagnotti, Leonardo; Florindo, Fabio; Noble, Paula; Archer, Claire; Zimmerman, Susan; Pavón-Carrasco, Francisco Javier; Cifani, Gabriele; Passigli, Susanna; Piovesan, Gianluca

    2015-05-01

    Abrupt climate change in the past is thought to have disrupted societies by accelerating environmental degradation, potentially leading to cultural collapse. Linking climate change directly to societal disruption is challenging because socioeconomic factors also play a large role, with climate being secondary or sometimes inconsequential. Combining paleolimnologic, historical, and archaeological methods provides for a more secure basis for interpreting the past impacts of climate on society. We present pollen, non-pollen palynomorph, geochemical, paleomagnetic and sedimentary data from a high-resolution 2700 yr lake sediment core from central Italy and compare these data with local historical documents and archeological surveys to reconstruct a record of environmental change in relation to socioeconomic history and climatic fluctuations. Here we document cases in which environmental change is strongly linked to changes in local land management practices in the absence of clear climatic change, as well as examples when climate change appears to have been a strong catalyst that resulted in significant environmental change that impacted local communities. During the Imperial Roman period, despite a long period of stable, mild climate, and a large urban population in nearby Rome, our site shows only limited evidence for environmental degradation. Warm and mild climate during the Medieval Warm period, on the other hand, led to widespread deforestation and erosion. The ability of the Romans to utilize imported resources through an extensive trade network may have allowed for preservation of the environment near the Roman capital, whereas during medieval time, the need to rely on local resources led to environmental degradation. Cool wet climate during the Little Ice Age led to a breakdown in local land use practices, widespread land abandonment and rapid reforestation. Our results present a high-resolution regional case study that explores the effect of climate change on

  19. Climate change impacts on human exposures to air pollution ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This is an abstract for a presentations at the Annual Conference of the International Society on Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology. This presentation will serve as an introduction to the symposium. As we consider the potential health impacts of a warming planet, the relationships between climate change and air pollutants become increasingly important to understand. These relationships are complex and highly variable, causing a variety of environmental impacts at local, regional and global scales. Human exposures and health impacts for air pollutants have the potential to be altered by changes in climate through multiple factors that drive population exposures to these pollutants. Research on this topic will provide both state and local governments with the tools and scientific knowledge base to undertake any necessary adaptation of the air pollution regulations and/or public health management systems in the face of climate change.

  20. Assessment of climate change impact on water resources in the Pungwe river basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersson, Lotta; Samuelsson, Patrick; Kjellstroem, Erik (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden)), e-mail: lotta.andersson@smhi.se

    2011-01-15

    The Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA3) and the hydrological model HBV were linked to assess climate change impacts on water resources in the Pungwe basin until 2050. RCA3 was capable of simulating the most important aspects of the climate for a control period at the regional scale. At the subbasin scale, additional scaling was needed. Three climate change experiments using ECHAM4-A2, B2 and CCSM3-B2 as input to RCA3 were carried out. According to the simulations annual rainfall in 2050 would be reduced by approximately 10% with increasing interannual variability of rainfall and dry season river flow and later onset of the rainy season. The ECHAM4-A2 driven experiment did also indicate a slight increase of high flows. If the results indeed reflect the future, they will worsen the already critical situation for water resources, regarding both floods and droughts. Uncertainties, however in the downscaled scenarios make it difficult to prioritize adaptation options. This calls for inclusion of more climate change experiments, in an ensemble of climate scenarios possibly by using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling of general circulation models, as well as extending the simulations to 2100 to further ensure robustness of the signal

  1. Modeled impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Findell, K.L.; Shevliakova, E.; Milly, P.C.D.; Stouffer, R.J.

    2007-01-01

    Equilibrium experiments with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model are used to investigate the impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate. Regions of altered land cover include large portions of Europe, India, eastern China, and the eastern United States. Smaller areas of change are present in various tropical regions. This study focuses on the impacts of biophysical changes associated with the land cover change (albedo, root and stomatal properties, roughness length), which is almost exclusively a conversion from forest to grassland in the model; the effects of irrigation or other water management practices and the effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes associated with land cover conversion are not included in these experiments. The model suggests that observed land cover changes have little or no impact on globally averaged climatic variables (e.g., 2-m air temperature is 0.008 K warmer in a simulation with 1990 land cover compared to a simulation with potential natural vegetation cover). Differences in the annual mean climatic fields analyzed did not exhibit global field significance. Within some of the regions of land cover change, however, there are relatively large changes of many surface climatic variables. These changes are highly significant locally in the annual mean and in most months of the year in eastern Europe and northern India. They can be explained mainly as direct and indirect consequences of model-prescribed increases in surface albedo, decreases in rooting depth, and changes of stomatal control that accompany deforestation. ?? 2007 American Meteorological Society.

  2. Climate change: costs of impacts and lines of adaptation. Report to the Prime Minister and Parliament

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    to work from the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios, in accordance with the simulations created by CNRM/Meteo-France using the Arpege-Climate model. A2 is a rather pessimistic scenario, B2 an optimistic scenario: these two scenarios are generally those adopted in climate change impact analysis. In the absence of a long-term socio-economic outlook for France per region and per sector, it was decided to work using the current French socio-economic situation (scenario known as 'constant economy'). This choice allows the impact of climate change to be isolated from that of other developments and does not add macro-economic uncertainties to uncertainties relating to climatic aspects. Nevertheless, this choice remains restrictive and limiting for some sectors, for which a socioeconomic change is already anticipated or for which these changes constitute a determining factor in the vulnerability to climate change. Only a limited number of sectors have been studied and within these the analysis only concerned a selection of climate change impacts. The estimated costs must be considered as rough estimates, due to the limits of the methodologies used and the non-exhaustive nature of the evaluations carried out. The detail of the quantitative evaluations is recorded in the general report. The works carried out highlight the costs, but also the benefits linked to climate change in mainland France, depending on the sector considered, climate scenarios and time horizon. For some sectors, we will see both costs and opportunities depending on the impact studied, so much so that it is sometimes difficult to determine the sign of the 'net' impact of climate change. Nevertheless, in view of the qualitative and quantitative analyses carried out by the study groups, we can expect a negative global impact from climate change; the costs could reach several hundreds of millions of euro per year for various sectors if no adaptation is undertaken. Seen as an additional policy to mitigation, adaptation

  3. Migration and adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tacoli, Cecilia

    2007-11-15

    Climate change is having an undeniable impact on many human systems and behaviours, including population mobility. This is hardly surprising: migration is an adaptive response to changes in people's circumstances. Yet environmental factors are not the whole story. Socio-economic, political and cultural factors are also closely linked to population movement, and heavily influence vulnerability to both direct and indirect impacts of climate change. Shifts in migration patterns are a strategy of adaptation to complex transformations, and recognising and accommodating this is key in policies for sustainable development and poverty reduction in the context of growing environmental stress.

  4. Extended impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, Felicity; Sabel, Clive E.; Morton, Katherine; Hiscock, Rosemary; Depledge, Michael H.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Incorporates wellbeing into understandings of climate change impacts on health. • Considers a range of secondary impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing. • Examines co-benefits and dis-benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies for health and wellbeing. • Emphasises the spatially and socially differentiated repercussions of adaptation and mitigation measures. - Abstract: Anthropogenic climate change is progressively transforming the environment despite political and technological attempts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to tackle global warming. Here we propose that greater insight and understanding of the health-related impacts of climate change can be gained by integrating the positivist approaches used in public health and epidemiology, with holistic social science perspectives on health in which the concept of ‘wellbeing’ is more explicitly recognised. Such an approach enables us to acknowledge and explore a wide range of more subtle, yet important health-related outcomes of climate change. At the same time, incorporating notions of wellbeing enables recognition of both the health co-benefits and dis-benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies across different population groups and geographical contexts. The paper recommends that future adaptation and mitigation policies seek to ensure that benefits are available for all since current evidence suggests that they are spatially and socially differentiated, and their accessibility is dependent on a range of contextually specific socio-cultural factors

  5. Climate change in the oceans: Human impacts and responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, Edward H; Bassett, Hannah R

    2015-11-13

    Although it has far-reaching consequences for humanity, attention to climate change impacts on the ocean lags behind concern for impacts on the atmosphere and land. Understanding these impacts, as well as society's diverse perspectives and multiscale responses to the changing oceans, requires a correspondingly diverse body of scholarship in the physical, biological, and social sciences and humanities. This can ensure that a plurality of values and viewpoints is reflected in the research that informs climate policy and may enable the concerns of maritime societies and economic sectors to be heard in key adaptation and mitigation discussions. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  6. Ensemble catchment hydrological modelling for climate change impact analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    It is vital to investigate how the hydrological model structure affects the climate change impact given that future changes not in the range for which the models were calibrated or validated are likely. Thus an ensemble modelling approach which involves a diversity of models with different structures such as spatial resolutions and process descriptions is crucial. The ensemble modelling approach was applied to a set of models: from the lumped conceptual models NAM, PDM and VHM, an intermediate detailed and distributed model WetSpa, to the highly detailed and fully distributed model MIKE-SHE. Explicit focus was given to the high and low flow extremes. All models were calibrated for sub flows and quick flows derived from rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) time series. In general, all models were able to produce reliable estimates of the flow regimes under the current climate for extreme peak and low flows. An intercomparison of the low and high flow changes under changed climatic conditions was made using climate scenarios tailored for extremes. Tailoring was important for two reasons. First, since the use of many scenarios was not feasible it was necessary to construct few scenarios that would reasonably represent the range of extreme impacts. Second, scenarios would be more informative as changes in high and low flows would be easily traced to changes of ETo and rainfall; the tailored scenarios are constructed using seasonal changes that are defined using different levels of magnitude (high, mean and low) for rainfall and ETo. After simulation of these climate scenarios in the five hydrological models, close agreement was found among the models. The different models predicted similar range of peak flow changes. For the low flows, however, the differences in the projected impact range by different hydrological models was larger, particularly for the drier scenarios. This suggests that the hydrological model structure is critical in low flow predictions

  7. The Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture: New Damage Functions from a Meta-Analsis and the GGCMI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, F. C.; Baldos, U. L. C.; Hertel, T. W.; Diaz, D.

    2016-12-01

    Substantial advances have been made in recent years in understanding the effects of climate change on agriculture, but this is not currently represented in economic models used to quantify the benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, the science regarding climate change impacts on agriculture in these models dates to the early 1990s or before. In this paper we derive new economic damage functions for the agricultural sector based on two methods for aggregating current scientific understanding of the impacts of warming on yields. We first present a new meta-analysis based on a review of the agronomic literature performed for the IPCC 5th Assessment Report and compare results from this approach with findings from the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI). We find yield impacts implied by the meta-analysis are generally more negative than those from the GGCMI, particularly at higher latitudes, but show substantial agreement in many areas. We then use both yield products as input to the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in order to estimate the welfare consequences of these yield shocks and to produce two new economic damage functions. These damage functions are consistently more negative than the current representation of agricultural damages in Integrated Asessment Models (IAMs), in some cases substantially so. Replacing the existing damage functions with those based on more recent science increases the social cost of carbon (SCC) by between 43% (GGCMI) and 143% (Meta-Analysis). In addition to presenting a new mutli-crop, multi-model gridded yield impact prouct that complements the GGCMI, this is also the first end-to-end study that directly links the biophysical impacts of climate change to the SCC, something we believe essential to improving the integrity of IAMs going forward.

  8. Future changes of the atmospheric composition and the impact of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grewe, V.; Dameris, M.; Hein, R.; Sausen, R. [DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Wessling (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere; Steil, B. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Chemie (Otto-Hahn-Institut), Mainz (Germany). Abt. Chemie der Atmosphaere

    1999-05-01

    The development of the future atmospheric chemical composition, with respect of NO{sub y} and O{sub 3} is investigated by means of the off-line coupled dynamic-chemical general circulation model ECHAM3/CHEM. Two time slice experiments have been performed for the years 1992 and 2015, which include changes in sea surface temperatures, greenhouse gas concentrations, emissions of CFCs, NO{sub x} and other species, i.e., the 2015 simulation accounts for changes in chemically relevant emissions and for a climate change and its impact on air chemistry. The 2015 simulation clearly shows a global increase in ozone except for large areas of the lower stratosphere, where no significant changes or even decreases in the ozone concentration are found. For a better understanding of the importance of (A) emissions like NO{sub x} and CFCs, (B) future changes of air temperature and water vapour concentration, and (C) other dynamic parameters, like precipitation and changes in the circulation, i.e. wind speed, diabatic circulation, stratosphere-troposphere-exchange, the simulation of the future atmosphere has been performed stepwise. This method requires a climate-chemistry model without interactive coupling of chemical species. Model results show that the direct effect of emissions (A) plays a major role for the composition of the future atmosphere, but they also clearly show that climate change has a significant impact and strongly reduces the NO{sub y} and ozone concentration in the lower stratosphere. (orig.)

  9. Sink or Swim: Adapting to the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleick, P. H.

    2014-12-01

    Climate changes lead to a wide range of societal and environmental impacts; indeed, strong evidence has accrued that such impacts are already occurring, as summarized by the newest National Climate Assessment and other analyses. Among the most important will be alterations in the hydrologic cycle, changes in water supply and demand, and impacts on existing water-related infrastructure. Because of the complexity of our water systems, adaptation responses will be equally complex. This problem has made it difficult for water managers and planners to develop and implement adaptation strategies. This talk will address three ways to think about water-related adaptation approaches to climate change: (1) strategies that are already being implemented to address population and economic changes without climate change; (2) whether these first-line strategies are appropriate for additional impacts that might result from climatic changes; and (3) new approaches that might be necessary for new, non-linear, or threshold impacts. An effort will also be made to differentiate between adaptation strategies that influence the hydrologic cycle directly (e.g., cloud seeding), those that influence supply management (e.g., construction of additional reservoirs or water-distribution systems), and those that affect water demand (e.g., removal of outdoor landscaping, installation of efficient irrigation systems).

  10. Understanding the Relationship between Social Change and Its Impacts: The Experience of Rural Land Use Change in South-Eastern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Kathryn J. H.; Schirmer, Jacki

    2012-01-01

    This study investigated socio-economic impacts of land use change, giving explicit attention to the relationships between independently observed land use change and associated socio-economic changes, perceived land use change and socio-economic change, attributed cause of change, and experienced impacts of change. Using a case study region in…

  11. The impact of climate change on smallholder and subsistence agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Morton, John F.

    2007-01-01

    Some of the most important impacts of global climate change will be felt among the populations, predominantly in developing countries, referred to as “subsistence” or “smallholder” farmers. Their vulnerability to climate change comes both from being predominantly located in the tropics, and from various socioeconomic, demographic, and policy trends limiting their capacity to adapt to change. However, these impacts will be difficult to model or predict because of (i) the lack of standardised d...

  12. Strategic plant choices can alleviate climate change impacts: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espeland, Erin K; Kettenring, Karin M

    2018-06-01

    Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) uses biodiversity and ecosystem services to reduce climate change impacts to local communities. Because plants can alleviate the abiotic and biotic stresses of climate change, purposeful plant choices could improve adaptation. However, there has been no systematic review of how plants can be applied to alleviate effects of climate change. Here we describe how plants can modify climate change effects by altering biological and physical processes. Plant effects range from increasing soil stabilization to reducing the impact of flooding and storm surges. Given the global scale of plant-related activities such as farming, landscaping, forestry, conservation, and restoration, plants can be selected strategically-i.e., planting and maintaining particular species with desired impacts-to simultaneously restore degraded ecosystems, conserve ecosystem function, and help alleviate effects of climate change. Plants are a tool for EbA that should be more broadly and strategically utilized. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  13. Forecasting land cover change impacts on drinking water treatment costs in Minneapolis, Minnesota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woznicki, S. A.; Wickham, J.

    2017-12-01

    Source protection is a critical aspect of drinking water treatment. The benefits of protecting source water quality in reducing drinking water treatment costs are clear. However, forecasting the impacts of environmental change on source water quality and its potential to influence future treatment processes is lacking. The drinking water treatment plant in Minneapolis, MN has recognized that land cover change threatens water quality in their source watershed, the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). Over 1,000 km2 of forests, wetlands, and grasslands in the UMRB were lost to agriculture from 2008-2013. This trend, coupled with a projected population increase of one million people in Minnesota by 2030, concerns drinking water treatment plant operators in Minneapolis with respect to meeting future demand for clean water in the UMRB. The objective of this study is to relate land cover change (forest and wetland loss, agricultural expansion, urbanization) to changes in treatment costs for the Minneapolis, MN drinking water utility. To do this, we first developed a framework to determine the relationship between land cover change and water quality in the context of recent historical changes and projected future changes in land cover. Next we coupled a watershed model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to projections of land cover change from the FOREcasting SCEnarios of Land-use Change (FORE-SCE) model for the mid-21st century. Using historical Minneapolis drinking water treatment data (chemical usage and costs), source water quality in the UMRB was linked to changes in treatment requirements as a function of projected future land cover change. These analyses will quantify the value of natural landscapes in protecting drinking water quality and future treatment processes requirements. In addition, our study provides the Minneapolis drinking water utility with information critical to their planning and capital improvement process.

  14. Commonalities between Disaster and Climate Change Risks for Health: A Theoretical Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banwell, Nicola; Rutherford, Shannon; Mackey, Brendan; Street, Roger; Chu, Cordia

    2018-03-16

    Disasters and climate change have significant implications for human health worldwide. Both climate change and the climate-sensitive hazards that result in disasters, are discussed in terms of direct and indirect impacts on health. A growing body of literature has argued for the need to link disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, there is limited articulation of the commonalities between these health impacts. Understanding the shared risk pathways is an important starting point for developing joint strategies for adapting to, and reducing, health risks. Therefore, this article discusses the common aspects of direct and indirect health risks of climate change and climate-sensitive disasters. Based on this discussion a theoretical framework is presented for understanding these commonalities. As such, this article hopes to extend the current health impact frameworks and provide a platform for further research exploring opportunities for linked adaptation and risk reduction strategies.

  15. Commonalities between Disaster and Climate Change Risks for Health: A Theoretical Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banwell, Nicola; Rutherford, Shannon; Mackey, Brendan; Street, Roger; Chu, Cordia

    2018-01-01

    Disasters and climate change have significant implications for human health worldwide. Both climate change and the climate-sensitive hazards that result in disasters, are discussed in terms of direct and indirect impacts on health. A growing body of literature has argued for the need to link disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, there is limited articulation of the commonalities between these health impacts. Understanding the shared risk pathways is an important starting point for developing joint strategies for adapting to, and reducing, health risks. Therefore, this article discusses the common aspects of direct and indirect health risks of climate change and climate-sensitive disasters. Based on this discussion a theoretical framework is presented for understanding these commonalities. As such, this article hopes to extend the current health impact frameworks and provide a platform for further research exploring opportunities for linked adaptation and risk reduction strategies. PMID:29547592

  16. Commonalities between Disaster and Climate Change Risks for Health: A Theoretical Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicola Banwell

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Disasters and climate change have significant implications for human health worldwide. Both climate change and the climate-sensitive hazards that result in disasters, are discussed in terms of direct and indirect impacts on health. A growing body of literature has argued for the need to link disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, there is limited articulation of the commonalities between these health impacts. Understanding the shared risk pathways is an important starting point for developing joint strategies for adapting to, and reducing, health risks. Therefore, this article discusses the common aspects of direct and indirect health risks of climate change and climate-sensitive disasters. Based on this discussion a theoretical framework is presented for understanding these commonalities. As such, this article hopes to extend the current health impact frameworks and provide a platform for further research exploring opportunities for linked adaptation and risk reduction strategies.

  17. Health Care Facilities Resilient to Climate Change Impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaclyn Paterson

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change will increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events and create risks that will impact health care facilities. Health care facilities will need to assess climate change risks and adopt adaptive management strategies to be resilient, but guidance tools are lacking. In this study, a toolkit was developed for health care facility officials to assess the resiliency of their facility to climate change impacts. A mixed methods approach was used to develop climate change resiliency indicators to inform the development of the toolkit. The toolkit consists of a checklist for officials who work in areas of emergency management, facilities management and health care services and supply chain management, a facilitator’s guide for administering the checklist, and a resource guidebook to inform adaptation. Six health care facilities representing three provinces in Canada piloted the checklist. Senior level officials with expertise in the aforementioned areas were invited to review the checklist, provide feedback during qualitative interviews and review the final toolkit at a stakeholder workshop. The toolkit helps health care facility officials identify gaps in climate change preparedness, direct allocation of adaptation resources and inform strategic planning to increase resiliency to climate change.

  18. Climate Change and the Impact on Respiratory and Allergic Disease: 2018.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demain, Jeffrey G

    2018-03-24

    The purpose of this paper is to review allergic respiratory disease related to indoor and outdoor exposures and to examine the impact of known and projected changes in climate. The global burden of disease directly attributed to climate change is very difficult to measure and becomes more challenging when the capacity of humans to adapt to these changes is taken into consideration. Allergic respiratory disease, such as asthma, is quite heterogenous, though closely associated with environmental and consequently immunologic interaction. Where is the tipping point? Our climate has been measurably changing for the past 100 years. It may indeed be the most significant health threat of the twenty-first century, and consequently tackling climate change may be the greatest health opportunity. The impacts of climate change on human health are varied and coming more into focus. Direct effects, such as heatwaves, severe weather, drought, and flooding, are apparent and frequently in the news. Indirect or secondary effects, such as changes in ecosystems and the impact on health, are less obvious. It is these changes in ecosystems that may have the greatest impact on allergic and respiratory diseases. This review will explore some ways that climate change, current and predicted, influences respiratory disease. Discussion will focus on changing pollen patterns, damp buildings with increased mold exposure, air pollution, and heat stress.

  19. Human impacts on terrestrial hydrology: climate change versus pumping and irrigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferguson, Ian M; Maxwell, Reed M

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change is altering terrestrial water and energy budgets, with subsequent impacts on surface and groundwater resources; recent studies have shown that local water management practices such as groundwater pumping and irrigation similarly alter terrestrial water and energy budgets over many agricultural regions, with potential feedbacks on weather and climate. Here we use a fully-integrated hydrologic model to directly compare effects of climate change and water management on terrestrial water and energy budgets of a representative agricultural watershed in the semi-arid Southern Great Plains, USA. At local scales, we find that the impacts of pumping and irrigation on latent heat flux, potential recharge and water table depth are similar in magnitude to the impacts of changing temperature and precipitation; however, the spatial distributions of climate and management impacts are substantially different. At the basin scale, the impacts on stream discharge and groundwater storage are remarkably similar. Notably, for the watershed and scenarios studied here, the changes in groundwater storage and stream discharge in response to a 2.5 °C temperature increase are nearly equivalent to those from groundwater-fed irrigation. Our results imply that many semi-arid basins worldwide that practice groundwater pumping and irrigation may already be experiencing similar impacts on surface water and groundwater resources to a warming climate. These results demonstrate that accurate assessment of climate change impacts and development of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies must account for local water management practices. (letter)

  20. Impact Of Strategic Change Management On The Performance Of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Impact Of Strategic Change Management On The Performance Of Public Transport In Osun State, Nigeria. ... Journal of Research in National Development ... the role of leadership style in strategic change management; identify in factors that are influencing change process and actual performance of an organization.

  1. Projected climate change impacts in rainfall erosivity over Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change projections and historical analyses have shown alterations in global precipitation dynamics, and therefore, it is also expected that there will be associated changes to soil erosion rates. The impacts of climate change on soil erosion may bring serious economic, social, and environmen...

  2. Appropriate modelling of climate change impacts on river flooding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Booij, Martijn J.

    2002-01-01

    Global climate change is likely to increase temperatures, change precipitation patterns and probably raise the frequency of extreme events. Impacts of climate change on river flooding may be considerable and may cause enormous economical, social and environmental damage and even loss of lives. This

  3. Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boit, Alice; Sakschewski, Boris; Boysen, Lena; Cano-Crespo, Ana; Clement, Jan; Garcia-Alaniz, Nashieli; Kok, Kasper; Kolb, Melanie; Langerwisch, Fanny; Rammig, Anja; Sachse, René; van Eupen, Michiel; von Bloh, Werner; Clara Zemp, Delphine; Thonicke, Kirsten

    2016-11-01

    Climate change and land-use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental-scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio-economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5-6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land-use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land-use expansion is halted by the mid-century. We suggest that constraining land-use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate-change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio-economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Towards an integrated economic assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotze-Campen, H.; Piontek, F.; Stevanovic, M.; Popp, A.; Bauer, N.; Dietrich, J.; Mueller, C.; Schmitz, C.

    2012-12-01

    For a detailed understanding of the effects of climate change on global agricultural production systems, it is essential to consider the variability of climate change patterns as projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs), their bio-physical impact on crops and the response in land-use patterns and markets. So far, approaches that account for the interaction of bio-physical and economic impacts are largely lacking. We present an integrative analysis by using a soft-coupled system of a biophysical impact model (LPJmL, Bondeau et al. 2007), an economically driven land use model (MAgPIE, Lotze-Campen et al. 2008) and an integrated assessment model (ReMIND-R, Leimbach et al. 2010) to study climate change impacts and economic damages in the agricultural sector. First, the dynamic global vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL is used to derive climate change impacts on crop yields for wheat, maize, soy, rice and other major crops. A range of different climate projections is used, taken from the dataset provided by the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP, www.isi-mip.org), which bias-corrected the latest CMIP5 climate data (Taylor et al. 2011). Crop yield impacts cover scenarios with and without CO2 fertilization as well as different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and different GCMs. With increasing temperature towards the end of the century yields generally decrease in tropical and subtropical regions, while they tend to benefit in higher latitudes. LPJmL results have been compared to other global crop models in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP, www.agmip.org). Second, changes in crop yields are analysed with the spatially explicit agro-economic model MAgPIE, which covers their interaction with economic development and changes in food demand. Changes in prices as well as welfare changes of producer and consumer surplus are taken as economic indicators. Due to climate-change related reductions in

  5. Local economic impacts associated with pure taxable capacity changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjornstad, D.J.

    1982-01-01

    A fiscal-impact model based on the introduction of a nuclear power plant demonstrates the need to integrate local public-sector impacts with local private-sector impacts when estimating the economic changes a community undergoes in response to a significant exogenous shock. A nuclear plant differs from other electrical generating facilities because siting regulations require locating in a low-population density area where the influence on the community will be substantial. These characteristics approximate the pure fiscal capacity change or pure tax revenue importation concept. Four sections of the paper describe local decision making on taxes, identify the parameters that may shape local impact, analyze indifference curves as they integrate with the local macroeconomic model, and compare data for two communities in which both private and public local economic sectors show stimulation. 12 references, 1 figure

  6. On The Impact of Climate Change to Agricultural Productivity in East Java

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuswanto, Heri; Salamah, Mutiah; Mumpuni Retnaningsih, Sri; Dwi Prastyo, Dedy

    2018-03-01

    Many researches showed that climate change has significant impact on agricultural sector, which threats the food security especially in developing countries. It has been observed also that the climate change increases the intensity of extreme events. This research investigated the impact climate to the agricultural productivity in East Java, as one of the main rice producers in Indonesia. Standard regression as well as panel regression models have been performed in order to find the best model which is able to describe the climate change impact. The analysis found that the fixed effect model of panel regression outperforms the others showing that climate change had negatively impacted the rice productivity in East Java. The effect in Malang and Pasuruan were almost the same, while the impact in Sumenep was the least one compared to other districts.

  7. Impacts of climate change on mangrove ecosystems: A region by region overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Raymond D.; Friess, Daniel A.; Day, Richard H.; MacKenzie, Richard A.

    2016-01-01

    Inter-related and spatially variable climate change factors including sea level rise, increased storminess, altered precipitation regime and increasing temperature are impacting mangroves at regional scales. This review highlights extreme regional variation in climate change threats and impacts, and how these factors impact the structure of mangrove communities, their biodiversity and geomorphological setting. All these factors interplay to determine spatially variable resiliency to climate change impacts, and because mangroves are varied in type and geographical location, these systems are good models for understanding such interactions at different scales. Sea level rise is likely to influence mangroves in all regions although local impacts are likely to be more varied. Changes in the frequency and intensity of storminess are likely to have a greater impact on N and Central America, Asia, Australia, and East Africa than West Africa and S. America. This review also highlights the numerous geographical knowledge gaps of climate change impacts, with some regions particularly understudied (e.g., Africa and the Middle East). While there has been a recent drive to address these knowledge gaps especially in South America and Asia, further research is required to allow researchers to tease apart the processes that influence both vulnerability and resilience to climate change. A more globally representative view of mangroves would allow us to better understand the importance of mangrove type and landscape setting in determining system resiliency to future climate change.

  8. The environmental impact of changing consumption patterns: a survey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røpke, Inge

    2001-01-01

    How does environmental impact change when national income increases? So far, this question has been mainly discussed from the point of view of production, but in recent years several studies have dealt with the question of decoupling from the point of view of consumption. The optimistic subscribers...... assessment of the environmental impact is most appropriately based on an input approach. Then data on input intensities for different categories of consumption goods are combined with data on changes in consumption patterns, and it is concluded that the historical changes in the composition of consumption...... seem to have done little to counterbalance the environmental effects of growth....

  9. Global late Quaternary megafauna extinctions linked to humans, not climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandom, Christopher; Faurby, Søren; Sandel, Brody; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2014-07-22

    The late Quaternary megafauna extinction was a severe global-scale event. Two factors, climate change and modern humans, have received broad support as the primary drivers, but their absolute and relative importance remains controversial. To date, focus has been on the extinction chronology of individual or small groups of species, specific geographical regions or macroscale studies at very coarse geographical and taxonomic resolution, limiting the possibility of adequately testing the proposed hypotheses. We present, to our knowledge, the first global analysis of this extinction based on comprehensive country-level data on the geographical distribution of all large mammal species (more than or equal to 10 kg) that have gone globally or continentally extinct between the beginning of the Last Interglacial at 132,000 years BP and the late Holocene 1000 years BP, testing the relative roles played by glacial-interglacial climate change and humans. We show that the severity of extinction is strongly tied to hominin palaeobiogeography, with at most a weak, Eurasia-specific link to climate change. This first species-level macroscale analysis at relatively high geographical resolution provides strong support for modern humans as the primary driver of the worldwide megafauna losses during the late Quaternary.

  10. Engineering Change Orders and their Impact on DoD Acquisition Contracts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-23

    Air Force Institute of Technology AFIT Scholar Theses and Dissertations 3-23-2017 Engineering Change Orders and their Impact on DoD Acquisition...administrator of AFIT Scholar. For more information, please contact richard.mansfield@afit.edu. Recommended Citation Cordell, Ian S., " Engineering Change... ENGINEERING CHANGE ORDERS AND THEIR IMPACT ON DOD ACQUISITION CONTRACTS THESIS Ian S. Cordell, Captain, USAF AFIT-ENC

  11. Incidence of cystic changes in impacted lower third molar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shridevi R Adaki

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To assess the incidence of cystic changes in the impacted lower third molar (ILTM in which the pericoronal (follicular space is less than 2.5 mm as measured from the radiograph. The relationship between the cystic changes and patient′s age, sex, and angular position and contact of ILTM with adjacent tooth was also evaluated. Materials and Methods: Follicular space less than 2.5 mm as measured from the panoramic radiograph was included in the study. A total of 73 tissue samples collected during the extraction ILTM were examined histopathologically. Then the data were analyzed for associations with age, sex, angular position, and contact of the ILTM with an adjacent tooth. Results: There were 37 male and 36 female patients, age ranging from 17 to 35 years (mean 23.95 years. Out of 73 specimens, 17 (23.3% showed cystic changes; among them 16 (22.1% showed dentigerous cysts and 1 (1.2% showed odontogenic keratocysts. Most of the cystic changes occurred in the 26-30 year age range. The cystic changes showed male predominance but could not gain statistical significance. The relationship between cystic changes and angular position was statistically significant (P < 0.05. Higher probability was found in distoangular positioned ILTM. The relationship between cystic changes and communication of ILTM with the second molar was not statistically significant. Conclusion: Incidence of cystic changes in ILTM justifies extraction of the impacted tooth associated with symptoms. The decision to extract or not to extract impacted third molar should be individualized, rather than generalized.

  12. Linked models to assess the impacts of climate change on nitrogen in a Norwegian river basin and fjord system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaste, O.; Wright, R.F.; Barkved, L.J.; Bjerkeng, B.; Engen-Skaugen, T.; Magnusson, J.; Saelthun, N.R.

    2006-01-01

    Dynamically downscaled data from two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs), ECHAM4 from the Max-Planck Institute (MPI), Germany and HadAm3H from the Hadley Centre (HAD), UK, driven with two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (IS92a and A2, respectively) were used to make climate change projections. These projections were then used to drive four effect models linked to assess the effects on hydrology, and nitrogen (N) concentrations and fluxes, in the Bjerkreim river basin (685-km 2 ) and its coastal fjord, southwestern Norway. The four effect models were the hydrological model HBV, the water quality models MAGIC, INCA-N and the NIVA FJORD model. The downscaled climate scenarios project a general temperature increase in the study region of approximately 1 deg. C by 2030-2049 (MPI IS92a) and approximately 3 deg. C by 2071-2100 (HAD A2). Both scenarios imply increased winter precipitation, whereas the projections of summer and autumn precipitation are quite different, with the MPI scenario projecting a slight increase and the HAD scenario a significant decrease. As a response to increased winter temperature, the HBV model simulates a dramatic reduction of snow accumulation in the upper parts of the catchment, which in turn lead to higher runoff during winter and lower runoff during snowmelt in the spring. With the HAD scenario, runoff in summer and early autumn is substantially reduced as a result of reduced precipitation, increased temperatures and thereby increased evapotranspiration. The water quality models, MAGIC and INCA-N project no major changes in nitrate (NO 3 - ) concentrations and fluxes within the MPI scenario, but a significant increase in concentrations and a 40-50% increase in fluxes in the HAD scenario. As a consequence, the acidification of the river could increase, thus offsetting ongoing recovery from acidification due to reductions in acid deposition. Additionally, the increased N loading may stimulate growth of N-limited benthic

  13. Leading Change in Tissue Viability Best Practice: An Action Learning Programme for Link Nurse Practitioners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellie, Jean; Henderson, Eileen; Milsom, Brian; Crawley, Hayley

    2010-01-01

    This account of practice reports on an action learning initiative designed and implemented in partnership between a regional NHS Acute Trust and a UK Business School. The central initiative was the implementation of an action learning programme entitled "Leading change in tissue viability best practice: a development programme for Link Nurse…

  14. 'Changing climate, changing health, changing stories' profile: using an EcoHealth approach to explore impacts of climate change on inuit health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, S L; Edge, V L; Cunsolo Willox, A

    2012-03-01

    Global climate change and its impact on public health exemplify the challenge of managing complexity and uncertainty in health research. The Canadian North is currently experiencing dramatic shifts in climate, resulting in environmental changes which impact Inuit livelihoods, cultural practices, and health. For researchers investigating potential climate change impacts on Inuit health, it has become clear that comprehensive and meaningful research outcomes depend on taking a systemic and transdisciplinary approach that engages local citizens in project design, data collection, and analysis. While it is increasingly recognised that using approaches that embrace complexity is a necessity in public health, mobilizing such approaches from theory into practice can be challenging. In 2009, the Rigolet Inuit Community Government in Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Canada partnered with a transdisciplinary team of researchers, health practitioners, and community storytelling facilitators to create the Changing Climate, Changing Health, Changing Stories project, aimed at developing a multi-media participatory, community-run methodological strategy to gather locally appropriate and meaningful data to explore climate-health relationships. The goal of this profile paper is to describe how an EcoHealth approach guided by principles of transdisciplinarity, community participation, and social equity was used to plan and implement this climate-health research project. An overview of the project, including project development, research methods, project outcomes to date, and challenges encountered, is presented. Though introduced in this one case study, the processes, methods, and lessons learned are broadly applicable to researchers and communities interested in implementing EcoHealth approaches in community-based research.

  15. Spatial and temporal changes in cumulative human impacts on the world's ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halpern, Benjamin S; Frazier, Melanie; Potapenko, John; Casey, Kenneth S; Koenig, Kellee; Longo, Catherine; Lowndes, Julia Stewart; Rockwood, R Cotton; Selig, Elizabeth R; Selkoe, Kimberly A; Walbridge, Shaun

    2015-07-14

    Human pressures on the ocean are thought to be increasing globally, yet we know little about their patterns of cumulative change, which pressures are most responsible for change, and which places are experiencing the greatest increases. Managers and policymakers require such information to make strategic decisions and monitor progress towards management objectives. Here we calculate and map recent change over 5 years in cumulative impacts to marine ecosystems globally from fishing, climate change, and ocean- and land-based stressors. Nearly 66% of the ocean and 77% of national jurisdictions show increased human impact, driven mostly by climate change pressures. Five percent of the ocean is heavily impacted with increasing pressures, requiring management attention. Ten percent has very low impact with decreasing pressures. Our results provide large-scale guidance about where to prioritize management efforts and affirm the importance of addressing climate change to maintain and improve the condition of marine ecosystems.

  16. Early changes in socioeconomic status do not predict changes in body mass in the first decade of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starkey, Leighann; Revenson, Tracey A

    2015-04-01

    Many studies link childhood socioeconomic status (SES) to body mass index (BMI), but few account for the impact of socioeconomic mobility throughout the lifespan. This study aims to investigate the impact of socioeconomic mobility on changes in BMI in childhood. Analyses tested whether [1] socioeconomic status influences BMI, [2] changes in socioeconomic status impact changes in BMI, and [3] timing of socioeconomic status mobility impacts BMI. Secondary data spanning birth to age 9 were analyzed. SES and BMI were investigated with gender, birth weight, maternal race/ethnicity, and maternal nativity as covariates. Autoregressive structural equation modeling and latent growth modeling were used. Socioeconomic status in the first year of life predicted body mass index. Child covariates were consistently associated with body mass index. Rate of change in socioeconomic status did not predict change in body mass index. The findings suggest that early socioeconomic status may most influence body mass in later childhood.

  17. Climate change impacts on coffee rust disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfonsi, W. M. V.; Koga-Vicente, A.; Pinto, H. S.; Alfonsi, E. L., Sr.; Coltri, P. P.; Zullo, J., Jr.; Patricio, F. R.; Avila, A. M. H. D.; Gonçalves, R. R. D. V.

    2016-12-01

    Changes in climate conditions and in extreme weather events may affect the food security due to impacts in agricultural production. Despite several researches have been assessed the impacts of extremes in yield crops in climate change scenarios, there is the need to consider the effects in pests and diseases which increase losses in the sector. Coffee Arabica is an important commodity in world and plays a key role in Brazilian agricultural exports. Although the coffee crop has a world highlight, its yield is affected by several factors abiotic or biotic. The weather as well pests and diseases directly influence the development and coffee crop yield. These problems may cause serious damage with significant economic impacts. The coffee rust, caused by the fungus Hemileia vastarix,is among the diseases of greatest impact for the crop. The disease emerged in Brazil in the 70s and is widely spread in all producing regions of coffee in Brazil, and in the world. Regions with favorable weather conditions for the pathogen may exhibit losses ranging from 30% to 50% of the total grain production. The evaluation of extreme weather events of coffee rust disease in futures scenarios was carried out using the climatic data from CMIP5 models, data field of coffee rust disease incidence and, incubation period simulation data for Brazilian municipalities. Two Regional Climate Models were selected, Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5, and the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 w/m2 was adopted. The outcomes pointed out that in these scenarios the period of incubation tends to decrease affecting the coffee rust disease incidence, which tends to increase. Nevertheless, the changing in average trends tends to benefit the reproduction of the pathogen. Once the temperature threshold for the disease reaches the adverse conditions it may be unfavorable for the incidence.

  18. Assessment of potential climate change impacts on peatland dissolved organic carbon release and drinking water treatment from laboratory experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, R.; Clark, J.M.; Bond, T.; Graham, N.; Hughes, D.; Freeman, C.

    2013-01-01

    Catchments draining peat soils provide the majority of drinking water in the UK. Over the past decades, concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) have increased in surface waters. Residual DOC can cause harmful carcinogenic disinfection by-products to form during water treatment processes. Increased frequency and severity of droughts combined with and increased temperatures expected as the climate changes, have potentials to change water quality. We used a novel approach to investigate links between climate change, DOC release and subsequent effects on drinking water treatment. We designed a climate manipulation experiment to simulate projected climate changes and monitored releases from peat soil and litter, then simulated coagulation used in water treatment. We showed that the ‘drought’ simulation was the dominant factor altering DOC release and affected the ability to remove DOC. Our results imply that future short-term drought events could have a greater impact than increased temperature on DOC treatability. - Highlights: ► We model realistic temperature and moisture changes on peat and surface vegetation. ► Quantity, quality and treatability changes of dissolved organic carbon were examined. ► Moisture has significantly greater influence than temperature on DOC production. ► Dry conditions alter treatability of DOC released from surface litter. ► Droughts have greater impact on water treatment than short-term heat waves alone. - Future drought events are likely to alter soil moisture, which predominately controls production of peat-derived dissolved organic carbon and subsequently drinking water quality.

  19. Knowing your genes: does this impact behaviour change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donovan, Clare B; Walsh, Marianne C; Gibney, Michael J; Brennan, Lorraine; Gibney, Eileen R

    2017-08-01

    It is postulated that knowledge of genotype may be more powerful than other types of personalised information in terms of motivating behaviour change. However, there is also a danger that disclosure of genetic risk may promote a fatalistic attitude and demotivate individuals. The original concept of personalised nutrition (PN) focused on genotype-based tailored dietary advice; however, PN can also be delivered based on assessment of dietary intake and phenotypic measures. Whilst dietitians currently provide PN advice based on diet and phenotype, genotype-based PN advice is not so readily available. The aim of this review is to examine the evidence for genotype-based personalised information on motivating behaviour change, and factors which may affect the impact of genotype-based personalised advice. Recent findings in PN will also be discussed, with respect to a large European study, Food4Me, which investigated the impact of varying levels of PN advice on motivating behaviour change. The researchers reported that PN advice resulted in greater dietary changes compared with general healthy eating advice, but no additional benefit was observed for PN advice based on phenotype and genotype information. Within Food4Me, work from our group revealed that knowledge of MTHFR genotype did not significantly improve intakes of dietary folate. In general, evidence is weak with regard to genotype-based PN advice. For future work, studies should test the impact of PN advice developed on a strong nutrigenetic evidence base, ensure an appropriate study design for the research question asked, and incorporate behaviour change techniques into the intervention.

  20. Learning to Adapt. Organisational Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berkhout, F.; Hertin, J.; Gann, D.M.

    2006-01-01

    Analysis of human adaptation to climate change should be based on realistic models of adaptive behaviour at the level of organisations and individuals. The paper sets out a framework for analysing adaptation to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in business organisations with new evidence presented from empirical research into adaptation in nine case-study companies. It argues that adaptation to climate change has many similarities with processes of organisational learning. The paper suggests that business organisations face a number of obstacles in learning how to adapt to climate change impacts, especially in relation to the weakness and ambiguity of signals about climate change and the uncertainty about benefits flowing from adaptation measures. Organisations rarely adapt 'autonomously', since their adaptive behaviour is influenced by policy and market conditions, and draws on resources external to the organisation. The paper identifies four adaptation strategies that pattern organisational adaptive behaviour

  1. Projecting the impacts of climate change on skipjack tuna abundance and spatial distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dueri, Sibylle; Bopp, Laurent; Maury, Olivier

    2014-03-01

    Climate-induced changes in the physical, chemical, and biological environment are expected to increasingly stress marine ecosystems, with important consequences for fisheries exploitation. Here, we use the APECOSM-E numerical model (Apex Predator ECOSystem Model - Estimation) to evaluate the future impacts of climate change on the physiology, spatial distribution, and abundance of skipjack tuna, the worldwide most fished species of tropical tuna. The main novelties of our approach lie in the mechanistic link between environmental factors, metabolic rates, and behavioral responses and in the fully three dimensional representation of habitat and population abundance. Physical and biogeochemical fields used to force the model are provided by the last generation of the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model run from 1990 to 2100 under a 'business-as-usual' scenario (RCP8.5). Our simulations show significant changes in the spatial distribution of skipjack tuna suitable habitat, as well as in their population abundance. The model projects deterioration of skipjack habitat in most tropical waters and an improvement of habitat at higher latitudes. The primary driver of habitat changes is ocean warming, followed by food density changes. Our projections show an increase of global skipjack biomass between 2010 and 2050 followed by a marked decrease between 2050 and 2095. Spawning rates are consistent with population trends, showing that spawning depends primarily on the adult biomass. On the other hand, growth rates display very smooth temporal changes, suggesting that the ability of skipjack to keep high metabolic rates in the changing environment is generally effective. Uncertainties related to our model spatial resolution, to the lack or simplification of key processes and to the climate forcings are discussed. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ciscar, J.C.; Iglesias, A.; Feyen, L.; Szabo, L.; Regemorter, van D.; Amelung, B.; Nicholls, R.; Watkiss, P.; Christensen, O.B.; Dankers, R.; Garrote, L.; Goodess, C.M.; Hunt, A.; Moreno, A.; Richards, J.; Soria, A.

    2011-01-01

    Quantitative estimates of the economic damages of climate change usually are based on aggregate relationships linking average temperature change to loss in gross domestic product (GDP). However, there is a clear need for further detail in the regional and sectoral dimensions of impact assessments to

  3. Wildlife as biological indicators for assessing impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diamond, A.W.

    1990-01-01

    Estimates of the impacts of climate change on wildlife are necessarily constrained by knowledge of the effects of climate on wildlife. A review is presented of the better-known impacts of climate on wildlife, examining their utility as ecological indicators. The most obvious feature of any species is its geographic distribution, or range. Climate may affect distribution indirectly through effects on habitat, directly through physiological effects, or most probably, through both. Impacts can include changes in distribution of habitat, changes in distribution of species, and changes in migration routes. Direct effects of climate include timing and success of breeding, timing and success of migration, winter survival, and extreme events. Distribution changes are powerful integrators of ecosystem-level events, but poor indicators of particular changes. Changes in the timing of migration, and the phenology of breeding, are more directly determined by weather events and hence will be better indicators of changing climate. Detailed knowledge of effects of climate on timing and success of breeding is available for only a few species, and has not been carefully synthesized with a view to using such variables as climatic indicators. Temperature maxima and minima, frost-free and degree days, and estimates of precipitation on finer scales, both temporal and geographic, are needed to predict the effects of climate change on wildlife. 48 refs

  4. Propensity to Click on Suspicious Links

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sudzina, Frantisek; Pavlicek, Antonin

    2017-01-01

    such behavior. Big Five Inventory traits (extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism, openness to experience) and narcissism were used. Impact of openness to experience was significant at 0.05 level, and of narcissism 0.1 level. Significance of remaining independent variables was above 0.......1. Openness to experience was linked positively linked to responsible behavior, narcissism was negatively linked....

  5. Climate change impacts health in Tunisia | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2012-03-26

    Mar 26, 2012 ... Research is showing that climate change is having major impacts on human health. Weather-related disasters are on the rise and water- and vector-borne diseases are spreading. Strategies to adapt to the effects of climate change may also pose unforeseen health risks. Read more about a project in ...

  6. Climate Change Impacts on Migration in the Vulnerable Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Nazan; Incealtin, Gamze; Kurnaz, M. Levent; Şengün Ucal, Meltem

    2014-05-01

    This work focuses on the economic, demographic and environmental drivers of migration related with the sustainable development in underdeveloped and developed countries, which are the most vulnerable to the climate change impacts through the Climate-Development Modeling including climate modeling and panel logit data analysis. We have studied some countries namely Bangladesh, Netherlands, Morocco, Malaysia, Ethiopia and Bolivia. We have analyzed these countries according to their economic, demographic and environmental indicators related with the determinants of migration, and we tried to indicate that their conditions differ according to all these factors concerning with the climate change impacts. This modeling covers some explanatory variables, which have the relationship with the migration, including GDP per capita, population, temperature and precipitation, which indicate the seasonal differences according to the years, the occurrence of natural hazards over the years, coastal location of countries, permanent cropland areas and fish capture which represents the amount of capturing over the years. We analyzed that whether there is a relationship between the migration and these explanatory variables. In order to achieve sustainable development by preventing or decreasing environmental migration due to climate change impacts or related other factors, these countries need to maintain economic, social, political, demographic, and in particular environmental performance. There are some significant risks stemming from climate change, which is not under control. When the economic and environmental conditions are considered, we have to regard climate change to be the more destructive force for those who are less defensible against all of these risks and impacts of uncontrolled climate change. This work was supported by the BU Research Fund under the project number 6990. One of the authors (MLK) was partially supported by Mercator-IPC Fellowship Program.

  7. Hotspots of climate change impacts in sub-Saharan Africa and implications for adaptation and development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Christoph; Waha, Katharina; Bondeau, Alberte; Heinke, Jens

    2014-08-01

    Development efforts for poverty reduction and food security in sub-Saharan Africa will have to consider future climate change impacts. Large uncertainties in climate change impact assessments do not necessarily complicate, but can inform development strategies. The design of development strategies will need to consider the likelihood, strength, and interaction of climate change impacts across biosphere properties. We here explore the spread of climate change impact projections and develop a composite impact measure to identify hotspots of climate change impacts, addressing likelihood and strength of impacts. Overlapping impacts in different biosphere properties (e.g. flooding, yields) will not only claim additional capacity to respond, but will also narrow the options to respond and develop. Regions with severest projected climate change impacts often coincide with regions of high population density and poverty rates. Science and policy need to propose ways of preparing these areas for development under climate change impacts. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Climate change impact on river flows in Chitral watershed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shakir, A.S.; Rehman, H.U.; Ehsan, S.

    2010-01-01

    The impact of climate change has always been very important for water resources in the world. In countries like Pakistan where different weather conditions exist, the effects of climate change can be more crucial. Generally, the climate changes are considered in terms of global warming i.e. increase in the average temperature of earth's near surface air. The global warming can have a strong impact on river flows in Pakistan. This may be due to the melting of snow and glaciers at a higher rate and changes in precipitation patterns. Glaciers in Pakistan cover about 13,680 km/sup 2/, which is 13% of the mountainous regions of the Upper Indus Basin. Glacier and Snow melt water from these glaciers contributes significantly to the river flows in Pakistan. Due to climate change, the changes in temperature and the amount of precipitation could have diversified effects on river flows of arid and semi-arid regions of Pakistan. This paper reviews the existing research studies on climate change impact on water resources of Pakistan. The past trend of river flows in Pakistan has been discussed with respect to the available data. Further, different projections about future climate changes in terms of glacier melting and changes in temperature and precipitation have also been taken into consideration in order to qualitatively assess the future trend of river flows in Pakistan. As a case study, the flows were generated for the Chitral watershed using UBC Watershed Model. Model was calibrated for the year 2002, which is an average flow year. Model results show good agreement between simulated and observed flows. UBC watershed model was applied to a climate change scenario of 1 deg. C increase in temperature and 15% decrease in glaciated area. Results of the study reveal that the flows were decreased by about 4.2 %. (author)

  9. Global change impacts on mangrove ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKee, Karen L.

    2004-01-01

    Mangroves are tropical/subtropical communities of primarily tree species that grow in the intertidal zone. These tidal forests are important coastal ecosystems that are valued for a variety of ecological and societal goods and services. Major local threats to mangrove ecosystems worldwide include clearcutting and trimming of forests for urban, agricultural, or industrial expansion; hydrological alterations; toxic chemical spills; and eutrophication. In many countries with mangroves, much of the human population resides in the coastal zone, and their activities often negatively impact the integrity of mangrove forests. In addition, eutrophication, which is the process whereby nutrients build up to higher than normal levels in a natural system, is possibly one of the most serious threats to mangroves and associated ecosystems such as coral reefs. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at the National Wetlands Research Center are working to more fully understand global impacts on these significant ecosystems.Changes in climate and other factors may also affect mangroves, but in complex ways. Global warming may promote expansion of mangrove forests to higher latitudes and accelerate sea-level rise through melting of polar ice or steric expansion of oceans. Changes in sea level would alter flooding patterns and the structure and areal extent of mangroves. Climate change may also alter rainfall patterns, which would in turn change local salinity regimes and competitive interactions of mangroves with other wetland species. Increases in frequency or intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes in combination with sea-level rise may alter erosion and sedimentation rates in mangrove forests. Another global change factor that may directly affect mangrove growth is increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), caused by burning of fossil fuels and other factors. Elevated CO2 concentration may increase mangrove growth by stimulating photosynthesis or improving water use

  10. A cosmic ray-climate link and cloud observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dunne Eimear M.

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Despite over 35 years of constant satellite-based measurements of cloud, reliable evidence of a long-hypothesized link between changes in solar activity and Earth’s cloud cover remains elusive. This work examines evidence of a cosmic ray cloud link from a range of sources, including satellite-based cloud measurements and long-term ground-based climatological measurements. The satellite-based studies can be divided into two categories: (1 monthly to decadal timescale analysis and (2 daily timescale epoch-superpositional (composite analysis. The latter analyses frequently focus on sudden high-magnitude reductions in the cosmic ray flux known as Forbush decrease events. At present, two long-term independent global satellite cloud datasets are available (ISCCP and MODIS. Although the differences between them are considerable, neither shows evidence of a solar-cloud link at either long or short timescales. Furthermore, reports of observed correlations between solar activity and cloud over the 1983–1995 period are attributed to the chance agreement between solar changes and artificially induced cloud trends. It is possible that the satellite cloud datasets and analysis methods may simply be too insensitive to detect a small solar signal. Evidence from ground-based studies suggests that some weak but statistically significant cosmic ray-cloud relationships may exist at regional scales, involving mechanisms related to the global electric circuit. However, a poor understanding of these mechanisms and their effects on cloud makes the net impacts of such links uncertain. Regardless of this, it is clear that there is no robust evidence of a widespread link between the cosmic ray flux and clouds.

  11. Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production in Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mereu, V.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.; Spano, D.

    2011-12-01

    The agricultural sector in Nigeria is particularly important for the country's food security, natural resources, and growth agenda. The cultivable areas comprise more than 70% of the total area; however, the cultivated area is about the 35% of the total area. The most important components in the food basket of the nation are cereals and tubers, which include rice, maize, corn, millet, sorghum, yam, and cassava. These crops represent about 80% of the total agricultural product in Nigeria (from NPAFS). The major crops grown in the country can be divided into food crops (produced for consumption) and export products. Despite the importance of the export crops, the primary policy of agriculture is to make Nigeria self-sufficient in its food and fiber requirements. The projected impacts of future climate change on agriculture and water resources are expected to be adverse and extensive in these area. This implies the need for actions and measures to adapt to climate change impacts, and especially as they affect agriculture, the primary sector for Nigerian economy. In the framework of the Project Climate Risk Analysis in Nigeria (founded by World Bank Contract n.7157826), a study was made to assess the potential impact of climate change on the main crops that characterize Nigerian agriculture. The DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, version 4.5 was used for the analysis. Crop simulation models included in DSSAT are tools that simulate physiological processes of crop growth, development and production by combining genetic crop characteristics and environmental (soil and weather) conditions. For each selected crop, the models were calibrated to evaluate climate change impacts on crop production. The climate data used for the analysis are derived by the Regional Circulation Model COSMO-CLM, from 1971 to 2065, at 8 km of spatial resolution. The RCM model output was "perturbed" with 10 Global Climate Models to have

  12. Impacts of climate change on Ontario's forests. Forest research information paper number 143

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buse, L.J.; Colombo, S.J.

    1998-01-01

    Reviews literature concerning the effects of global climate change on forest plants and communities, and provides opinions on the potential impacts that climate change may have on Ontario forests. Sections of the review discuss the following: The climate of Ontario in the 21st century as predicted by climate models; forest hydrology in relation to climate change; insects and climate change; impacts on fungi in the forest ecosystem; impacts on forest fires and their management; plant physiological responses; genetic implications of climate change; forest vegetation dynamics; the use of models in global climate change studies; and forest management responses to climate change

  13. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T; Tuomenvirta, H [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  14. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H.; Posch, M.

    1995-01-01

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  15. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  16. Changing Patterns of Emerging Zoonotic Diseases in Wildlife, Domestic Animals, and Humans Linked to Biodiversity Loss and Globalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, A Alonso

    2017-12-15

    The fundamental human threats to biodiversity including habitat destruction, globalization, and species loss have led to ecosystem disruptions altering infectious disease transmission patterns, the accumulation of toxic pollutants, and the invasion of alien species and pathogens. To top it all, the profound role of climate change on many ecological processes has affected the inability of many species to adapt to these relatively rapid changes. This special issue, "Zoonotic Disease Ecology: Effects on Humans, Domestic Animals and Wildlife," explores the complex interactions of emerging infectious diseases across taxa linked to many of these anthropogenic and environmental drivers. Selected emerging zoonoses including RNA viruses, Rift Valley fever, trypanosomiasis, Hanta virus infection, and other vector-borne diseases are discussed in detail. Also, coprophagous beetles are proposed as important vectors in the transmission and maintenance of infectious pathogens. An overview of the impacts of climate change in emerging disease ecology within the context of Brazil as a case study is provided. Animal Care and Use Committee requirements were investigated, concluding that ecology journals have low rates of explicit statements regarding the welfare and wellbing of wildlife during experimental studies. Most of the solutions to protect biodiversity and predicting and preventing the next epidemic in humans originating from wildlife are oriented towards the developed world and are less useful for biodiverse, low-income economies. We need the development of regional policies to address these issues at the local level.

  17. A structural Ricardian valuation of climate change impacts on agriculture in Pakistan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahmed, Mirza Nomman

    2013-07-01

    This book presents the economic analysis of the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Pakistan. Particular emphasis is laid on the magnitude of implicit adaptations in overall climate impact assessment and the analysis of selected adaptation options. Using a hedonic pricing model and a revealed choice approach, this study identifies the impacts of climate change on agricultural incomes, depicts the spatial patterns and seasonality of the impacts, and models the future adaptation behavior of farmers in the crop sector. A high sensitivity of farming in Pakistan to climate change is confirmed. With a changing climate and income in mind, farmers in Pakistan are more likely to choose rice, vegetables and maize, whereas they move away from wheat, sugarcane, cotton and fruits.

  18. A structural Ricardian valuation of climate change impacts on agriculture in Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, Mirza Nomman

    2013-01-01

    This book presents the economic analysis of the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Pakistan. Particular emphasis is laid on the magnitude of implicit adaptations in overall climate impact assessment and the analysis of selected adaptation options. Using a hedonic pricing model and a revealed choice approach, this study identifies the impacts of climate change on agricultural incomes, depicts the spatial patterns and seasonality of the impacts, and models the future adaptation behavior of farmers in the crop sector. A high sensitivity of farming in Pakistan to climate change is confirmed. With a changing climate and income in mind, farmers in Pakistan are more likely to choose rice, vegetables and maize, whereas they move away from wheat, sugarcane, cotton and fruits.

  19. Linking world scan and image

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timmer, H.; Alcamo, J.; Bollen, J.; Gielen, A.; Gerlach, R.; Den Ouden, A.; Zuidema, G.

    1995-01-01

    In march 1994 the Central Planning Bureau (CPB) in the Hague, the National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM) in Bilthoven and the Institute of Environmental Studies (IES) in Amsterdam started the first phase of a joint research program aimed at creating integrated scenarios of the global economy, GHG emissions, and climate impacts. The goal of the first phase of this project was to design and test a linked version of the economic model WORLD SCAN of the former, and the climate model IMAGE 2 of the latter institute. This first phase has resulted in the planned test runs with an operational version of the linked models by May 1995. The experiences in the first year were encouraging, both in the scientific and the organizational sense. In a sense, a link was made between scientific disciplines: a coupling of disciplines concerning with global economic development and the global physical climate system is difficult and novel. The goal of the project was to integrate long-term economic developments and effects of climate change. Both the WORLD SCAN model and IMAGE 2 provide a consistent analysis of the global system, but from different perspectives. IMAGE 2 simulates climate change and its effects in a global context but treats the economic system as exogenous. WORLD SCAN covers the world economic system in a consistent manner but does not take into account the global environment. The links are constructed in the area of agriculture and energy. The basic idea is that WORLD SCAN determines demand and supply on economic principles, while IMAGE 2 provides information on changes of land area and average quality of productive land, and other damage costs based on its three sub-systems. The demand for energy is fed into IMAGE 2's Energy Industry subsystem (EIS), which in turn determines emissions of greenhouse gases. Furthermore, some additional output from WORLD SCAN on activity levels, prices and capital structure can be used to determine

  20. A guide to evaluating linkage quality for the analysis of linked data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harron, Katie L; Doidge, James C; Knight, Hannah E; Gilbert, Ruth E; Goldstein, Harvey; Cromwell, David A; van der Meulen, Jan H

    2017-10-01

    Linked datasets are an important resource for epidemiological and clinical studies, but linkage error can lead to biased results. For data security reasons, linkage of personal identifiers is often performed by a third party, making it difficult for researchers to assess the quality of the linked dataset in the context of specific research questions. This is compounded by a lack of guidance on how to determine the potential impact of linkage error. We describe how linkage quality can be evaluated and provide widely applicable guidance for both data providers and researchers. Using an illustrative example of a linked dataset of maternal and baby hospital records, we demonstrate three approaches for evaluating linkage quality: applying the linkage algorithm to a subset of gold standard data to quantify linkage error; comparing characteristics of linked and unlinked data to identify potential sources of bias; and evaluating the sensitivity of results to changes in the linkage procedure. These approaches can inform our understanding of the potential impact of linkage error and provide an opportunity to select the most appropriate linkage procedure for a specific analysis. Evaluating linkage quality in this way will improve the quality and transparency of epidemiological and clinical research using linked data. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

  1. Cost Analysis of Water Transport for Climate Change Impact Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szaleniec, V.; Buytaert, W.

    2012-04-01

    It is expected that climate change will have a strong impact on water resources worldwide. Many studies exist that couple the output of global climate models with hydrological models to assess the impact of climate change on physical water availability. However, the water resources topology of many regions and especially that of cities can be very complex. Changes in physical water availability do therefore not translate easily into impacts on water resources for cities. This is especially the case for cities with a complex water supply topology, for instance because of geographical barriers, strong gradients in precipitation patterns, or competing water uses. In this study we explore the use of cost maps to enable the inclusion of water supply topologies in climate change impact studies. We use the city of Lima as a case study. Lima is the second largest desert city in the world. Although Peru as a whole has no water shortage, extreme gradients exist. Most of the economic activities including the city of Lima are located in the coastal desert. This region is geographically disconnected from the wet Amazon basin because of the Andes mountain range. Hence, water supply is precarious, provided by a complex combination of high mountain ecosystems including wetlands and glaciers, as well as groundwater aquifers depending on recharge from the mountains. We investigate the feasibility and costs of different water abstraction scenarios and the impact of climate change using cost functions for different resources. The option of building inter basins tunnels across the Andes is compared to the costs of desalinating seawater from the Pacific Ocean under different climate change scenarios and population growth scenarios. This approach yields recommendations for the most cost-effective options for the future.

  2. Links between the built environment, climate and population health: interdisciplinary environmental change research in New York City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenthal, Joyce Klein; Sclar, Elliott D; Kinney, Patrick L; Knowlton, Kim; Crauderueff, Robert; Brandt-Rauf, Paul W

    2007-10-01

    Global climate change is expected to pose increasing challenges for cities in the following decades, placing greater stress and impacts on multiple social and biophysical systems, including population health, coastal development, urban infrastructure, energy demand, and water supplies. Simultaneously, a strong global trend towards urbanisation of poverty exists, with increased challenges for urban populations and local governance to protect and sustain the wellbeing of growing cities. In the context of these 2 overarching trends, interdisciplinary research at the city scale is prioritised for understanding the social impacts of climate change and variability and for the evaluation of strategies in the built environment that might serve as adaptive responses to climate change. This article discusses 2 recent initiatives of The Earth Institute at Columbia University (EI) as examples of research that integrates the methods and objectives of several disciplines, including environmental health science and urban planning, to understand the potential public health impacts of global climate change and mitigative measures for the more localised effects of the urban heat island in the New York City metropolitan region. These efforts embody 2 distinct research approaches. The New York Climate & Health Project created a new integrated modeling system to assess the public health impacts of climate and land use change in the metropolitan region. The Cool City Project aims for more applied policy-oriented research that incorporates the local knowledge of community residents to understand the costs and benefits of interventions in the built environment that might serve to mitigate the harmful impacts of climate change and variability, and protect urban populations from health stressors associated with summertime heat. Both types of research are potentially useful for understanding the impacts of environmental change at the urban scale, the policies needed to address these

  3. Climate change impacts in Iran: assessing our current knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahimi, Jaber; Malekian, Arash; Khalili, Ali

    2018-02-01

    During recent years, various studies have focused on investigating the direct and indirect impacts of climate changes in Iran while the noteworthy fact is the achievement gained by these researches. Furthermore, what should be taken into consideration is whether these studies have been able to provide appropriate opportunities for improving further studies in this particular field or not. To address these questions, this study systematically reviewed and summarized the current available literature (n = 150) regarding the impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation in Iran to assess our current state of knowledge. The results revealed that while all studies discuss the probable changes in temperature and precipitation over the next decades, serious contradictions could be seen in their results; also, the general pattern of changes was different in most of the cases. This matter may have a significant effect on public beliefs in climate change, which can be a serious warning for the activists in this realm.

  4. Assessing the impact of climatic change in cold regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parry, M L; Carter, T R [eds.

    1984-01-01

    The report describes the use of models to predict the consequences of global warming in particular (cold) regions. The workshop focused on two related issues: (a) the current sensitivity of ecosystems and farming systems to climatic variability, and (b) the range of impacts likely for certain changes of climate. This report addresses four broad themes: (1) the nature of the research problem; (2) methods of evaluating sensitivity to climatic variability; (3) methods of measuring the impact of climate change; and (4) how these methods might be refined. (ACR)

  5. Allostatic Load Is Linked to Cortical Thickness Changes Depending on Body-Weight Status

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonatan Ottino-González

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Overweight (body mass index or BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 and stress interact with each other in complex ways. Overweight promotes chronic low-inflammation states, while stress is known to mediate caloric intake. Both conditions are linked to several avoidable health problems and to cognitive decline, brain atrophy, and dementia. Since it was proposed as a framework for the onset of mental illness, the allostatic load model has received increasing attention. Although changes in health and cognition related to overweight and stress are well-documented separately, the association between allostatic load and brain integrity has not been addressed in depth, especially among overweight subjects.Method: Thirty-four healthy overweight-to-obese and 29 lean adults underwent blood testing, neuropsychological examination, and magnetic resonance imaging to assess the relationship between cortical thickness and allostatic load, represented as an index of 15 biomarkers (this is, systolic and diastolic arterial tension, glycated hemoglobin, glucose, creatinine, total cholesterol, HDL and LDL cholesterol, triglycerides, c-reactive protein, interleukin-6, insulin, cortisol, fibrinogen, and leptin.Results: Allostatic load indexes showed widespread positive and negative significant correlations (p < 0.01 with cortical thickness values depending on body-weight status.Conclusion: The increase of allostatic load is linked to changes in the gray matter composition of regions monitoring behavior, sensory-reward processing, and general cognitive function.

  6. Allostatic Load Is Linked to Cortical Thickness Changes Depending on Body-Weight Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ottino-González, Jonatan; Jurado, María A.; García-García, Isabel; Segura, Bàrbara; Marqués-Iturria, Idoia; Sender-Palacios, María J.; Tor, Encarnació; Prats-Soteras, Xavier; Caldú, Xavier; Junqué, Carme; Garolera, Maite

    2017-01-01

    Objective: Overweight (body mass index or BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2) and stress interact with each other in complex ways. Overweight promotes chronic low-inflammation states, while stress is known to mediate caloric intake. Both conditions are linked to several avoidable health problems and to cognitive decline, brain atrophy, and dementia. Since it was proposed as a framework for the onset of mental illness, the allostatic load model has received increasing attention. Although changes in health and cognition related to overweight and stress are well-documented separately, the association between allostatic load and brain integrity has not been addressed in depth, especially among overweight subjects. Method: Thirty-four healthy overweight-to-obese and 29 lean adults underwent blood testing, neuropsychological examination, and magnetic resonance imaging to assess the relationship between cortical thickness and allostatic load, represented as an index of 15 biomarkers (this is, systolic and diastolic arterial tension, glycated hemoglobin, glucose, creatinine, total cholesterol, HDL and LDL cholesterol, triglycerides, c-reactive protein, interleukin-6, insulin, cortisol, fibrinogen, and leptin). Results: Allostatic load indexes showed widespread positive and negative significant correlations (p < 0.01) with cortical thickness values depending on body-weight status. Conclusion: The increase of allostatic load is linked to changes in the gray matter composition of regions monitoring behavior, sensory-reward processing, and general cognitive function. PMID:29375342

  7. Changes in hydro-meteorological conditions over tropical West Africa (1980-2015) and links to global climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndehedehe, Christopher E.; Awange, Joseph L.; Agutu, Nathan O.; Okwuashi, Onuwa

    2018-03-01

    The role of global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in modulating rainfall in the African region has been widely studied and is now less debated. However, their impacts and links to terrestrial water storage (TWS) in general, have not been studied. This study presents the pioneer results of canonical correlation analysis (CCA) of TWS derived from both global reanalysis data (1980-2015) and GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) (2002-2014) with SST fields. The main issues discussed include, (i) oceanic hot spots that impact on TWS over tropical West Africa (TWA) based on CCA, (ii) long term changes in model and global reanalysis data (soil moisture, TWS, and groundwater) and the influence of climate variability on these hydrological indicators, and (iii) the hydrological characteristics of the Equatorial region of Africa (i.e., the Congo basin) based on GRACE-derived TWS, river discharge, and precipitation. Results of the CCA diagnostics show that El-Niño Southern Oscillation related equatorial Pacific SST fluctuations is a major index of climate variability identified in the main portion of the CCA procedure that indicates a significant association with long term TWS reanalysis data over TWA (r = 0.50, ρ < 0.05). Based on Mann-Kendall's statistics, the study found fairly large long term declines (ρ < 0.05) in TWS and soil moisture (1982 - 2015), mostly over the Congo basin, which coincided with warming of the land surface and the surrounding oceans. Meanwhile, some parts of the Sahel show significant wetting (rainfall, soil moisture, groundwater, and TWS) trends during the same period (1982-2015) and aligns with the ongoing narratives of rainfall recovery in the region. Results of singular spectral analysis and regression confirm that multi-annual changes in the Congo River discharge explained a considerable proportion of variability in GRACE-hydrological signal over the Congo basin (r = 0.86 and R2 = 0.70, ρ < 0.05). Finally, leading

  8. Climate Change Impacts on High-Altitude Ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Harald Pauli

    2016-01-01

    Reviewed: Climate Change Impacts on High-Altitude Ecosystems By Münir Öztürk, Khalid Rehman Hakeem, I. Faridah-Hanum and Efe. Recep, Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing, 2015. xvii + 696 pp. US$ 239.00. ISBN 978-3-319-12858-0.

  9. The impact of land-use and global change on water-related agro-ecosystem services in the midwest US

    Science.gov (United States)

    VanLoocke, Andrew D.

    Humans have and are likely to continue to dramatically alter both the global landscape through the conversion of natural ecosystems into agriculture, and the atmosphere through the combustion of biomass and fossil fuels to meet the need for food and energy. Associated with these land use and global changes are major alterations in the biogeochemical cycles of carbon, water, and nitrogen, which have important implications on the growth and function of ecosystems and the services they provide for humanity. This dissertation investigates the impacts on water-related agro-ecosystem services associated with increasing concentrations of the tropospheric pollutant ozone ([O 3]) and land use change for cellulosic feedstocks in the Midwestern United States. This study focused on quantifying changes in water-related agro-ecosystem services including direct changes to water quantity, water use efficiency (WUE) that links the carbon cycle to water, and water quality that links the nitrogen cycle to water. In the context of these land-use and global changes and the associated changes in water-related agro-ecosystem services, the goals of this research are to: 1) determine the concentration at which soybean latent heat flux (lambdaET) is sensitive to O3, test whether decreases in lambda ET are linked with the concentration of O3, and find whether an increase in O3 has an impact on WUE 2) determine the regional distribution of water use and WUE for Miscanthus x giganteus (miscanthus) and Panicum virgatum (switchgrass) two of the leading candidate cellulosic feedstocks, relative to Zea mays L. (maize), the current dominant ethanol feedstock 3) determine the change in streamflow in the Mississippi-Atchafalya River Basin (MARB) and the export of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) to the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic region associated with large-scale production of miscanthus and switchgrass. Micrometeorological measurements were made at the Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment

  10. Perceptions on climate change and its impact on livelihoods in Hwange district, Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Nhemachena

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated perceptions of rural communities on climate change and its impacts on livelihoods. The research was conducted in the semi-arid Hwange district in Matebelel and North province of Zimbabwe. The perceptions were compared with empirical evidence from climatic studies on trends on temperature and rainfall, and impacts on livelihoods in the country and region. The findings from the current study are generally in agreement with those of other studies that indicate changes in the climate, especially in terms of rainfall. This largely applies to short-term periods; however, for long-term periods it is difficult to accurately relate rural community perceptions to changes in rainfall over time. Despite perceived changes and impacts of climate change on local livelihood activities, mainly agriculture, there are multiple stressors that the communities face which also affect their livelihoods. Further evidence-based research is required to disentangle climate change impacts on livelihoods, including livelihood impacts arising from interactions of climate and non-climatic factors.

  11. A generalized theory of sun-climate/weather link and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njau, E.C.

    1988-07-01

    We generalize the theory of Sun-Climate/weather links and climatic change developed earlier by the author. On the basis of this theory, we show mathematically that key climatic/weather parameters are continuously subjected to determinable amplitude modulations and other variations which may be useful in climatic prediction work. A number of new and known terrestrial oscillations in climate and atmospheric behaviour in general, including the known quasi-biennial oscillations and many others, are deduced from the theory and accounted for in terms of their causative physical processes. Finally we briefly discuss the possibility of applying the theory to the planets Mars and Venus as well as Saturn's largest satellite, Titan. (author). 30 refs, 1 fig

  12. Global warming and climate change in Amazonia: Climate-vegetation feedback and impacts on water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marengo, José; Nobre, Carlos A.; Betts, Richard A.; Cox, Peter M.; Sampaio, Gilvan; Salazar, Luis

    This chapter constitutes an updated review of long-term climate variability and change in the Amazon region, based on observational data spanning more than 50 years of records and on climate-change modeling studies. We start with the early experiments on Amazon deforestation in the late 1970s, and the evolution of these experiments to the latest studies on greenhouse gases emission scenarios and land use changes until the end of the twenty-first century. The "Amazon dieback" simulated by the HadCM3 model occurs after a "tipping point" of CO2 concentration and warming. Experiments on Amazon deforestation and change of climate suggest that once a critical deforestation threshold (or tipping point) of 40-50% forest loss is reached in eastern Amazonia, climate would change in a way which is dangerous for the remaining forest. This may favor a collapse of the tropical forest, with a substitution of the forest by savanna-type vegetation. The concept of "dangerous climate change," as a climate change, which induces positive feedback, which accelerate the change, is strongly linked to the occurrence of tipping points, and it can be explained as the presence of feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, particularly involving a weakening of the current terrestrial carbon sink and a possible reversal from a sink (as in present climate) to a source by the year 2050. We must, therefore, currently consider the drying simulated by the Hadley Centre model(s) as having a finite probability under global warming, with a potentially enormous impact, but with some degree of uncertainty.

  13. Seismic link at plate boundary

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    time series to determine the causality and related orientation. The resulting link ... Triggering causes changes in the Coulomb stress on a specified fault, which is ... work link shows that the alignment of the links is parallel to the Honshu Trench ...

  14. Climate Change Impacts on High-Altitude Ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harald Pauli

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Reviewed: Climate Change Impacts on High-Altitude Ecosystems By Münir Öztürk, Khalid Rehman Hakeem, I. Faridah-Hanum and Efe. Recep, Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing, 2015. xvii + 696 pp. US$ 239.00. ISBN 978-3-319-12858-0.

  15. The impact of climate change on US power grids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, N.; Wong, P.C.; Leung, L.Y.; Scott, M.; Taylor, T.; Jiang, W.; Correia, J.

    2009-01-01

    This presentation discussed a new model and system designed to interactively predict the impact of climate change on power grids and its wider implications on national security. Sensitivity curves for daily energy consumption were analyzed. The model was used to investigate the localized and system-wide impact of digital end use technologies; demand changes due to different dynamic pricing models; and the effects of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation options. The study showed that annual peak loads and energy consumption will increase in the southwest regions of the United States. Peak load months will include spring and autumn months. The Pacific northwest will experience hotter days in the summer months, and the use of air conditioning systems is expected to increase significantly in the future. Air conditioning loads will require stronger voltage support and more reactive power consumption. Fault-induced delayed voltage recovery phenomena will pose a threat to system voltage stability. It was concluded that new technologies will help to mitigate the adverse impacts caused by climatic changes. tabs., figs

  16. The Climaware project: Impacts of climate change on water resources management - regional strategies and European view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirel, Guillaume; D'Agostino, Daniela; Démerliac, Stéphane; Dorchies, David; Flörke, Martina; Jay-Allemand, Maxime; Jost, Claudine; Kehr, Katrin; Perrin, Charles; Scardigno, Alessandra; Schneider, Christof; Theobald, Stephan; Träbing, Klaus

    2014-05-01

    Climate projections produced with CMIP5 and applied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its fifth assessment report indicate that changes in precipitation and temperature are expected to occur throughout Europe in the 21th century, with a likely decrease of water availability in many regions. Besides, water demand is also expected to increase, in link with these expected climate modifications, but also due to socio-economic and demographic changes. In this respect, the use of future freshwater resources may not be sustainable from the current water management perspective. Therefore adaptation strategies will most likely be needed to cope with these evolutions. In this context, the main objective of the ClimAware project (2010-2013 - www.uni-kassel.de/fb14/wasserbau/CLIMAWARE/, a project implemented within the IWRM-NET Funding Initiative) was to analyse the impacts of climate change (CC) on freshwater resources at the continental and regional scales and to identify efficient adaptation strategies to improve water management for various socio-economic sectors. This should contribute to a more effective implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and its instruments (river basin management plans, programmes of measures). The project developed integrated measures for improved freshwater management under CC constraints. More specifically, the objectives of the ClimAware project were to: • elaborate quantitative projections of changes in river flows and consequences such as flood frequency, drought occurrence and sectorial water uses. • analyse the effect of CC on the hydromorphological reference conditions of rivers and therefore the definition of "good status". • define management rules/strategies concerning dam management and irrigation practices on different time perspectives. • investigate uncertainties in climate model - scenario combinations. The research approach considered both European and regional perspectives, to get

  17. Little auks buffer the impact of current Arctic climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grémillet, David; Welcker, Jorg; Karnovsky, Nina J.

    2012-01-01

    Climate models predict a multi-degree warming of the North Atlantic in the 21st century. A research priority is to understand the impact of such changes upon marine organisms. With 40-80 million individuals, planktivorous little auks (Alle alle) are an essential component of pelagic food webs...... in this region that are potentially highly susceptible to climatic effects. Using an integrative study of their behaviour, physiology and fitness at three study sites, we evaluated the impact of ocean warming on little auks across the Greenland Sea in 2005-2007. Contrary to our hypothesis, the birds responded...... to a wide range of sea surface temperatures via plasticity of their foraging behaviour, allowing them to maintain their fitness levels unchanged. Predicted effects of climate change are significantly attenuated by such plasticity, confounding attempts to forecast future impacts of climate change by envelope...

  18. Cumulative Impacts of Energy and Climate Change Policies on Carbon Leakage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Varma, A.; Milnes, R.; Miller, K.; Williams, E. [AEA Technology plc, London (United Kingdom); De Bruyn, S.; Brinke, L. [CE Delft, Delft (Netherlands)

    2012-02-15

    Carbon leakage occurs when climate change policy aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions in one country leads to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions in a country that is not bound by these policies. Given that climate change is a global issue, carbon leakage impacts upon the effectiveness of climate change policies. This independent study examines the cumulative impact of climate change policies on carbon leakage. The report brings together findings and analysis from a wide range of primary literature in this area and where possible, conclusions relevant to the UK are drawn.

  19. Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; Monier, Erwan

    2017-08-01

    While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climate change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.

  20. Climate change impacts on German cities and actions for preserving quality of life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schetke Sophie

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Also German cities -as many other cities worldwide- will be affected by impacts of climate change. Starting from the German Adaptation Strategy to climate change, the paper presents a short literature review on impacts of climate change and on fields of action for German municipalities and urban planners to adapt to it. The literature review shows that main negative impacts of climate change in Germany are due to rising temperatures and cities will also need to cope with altered precipitation regimes. But also positive impacts such as reduced heating costs are reported. Additionally, the paper highlights a second phenomenon, which also causes specific demands for urban planners regarding human health and quality of life in German cities: demographic change. Altering demographic patterns within the society will lead to altered demands for healthy living conditions. Moreover, findings from the literature show that specific groups of the society - such as the elderly - are especially vulnerable towards impacts of climate change. A concrete sensitivity towards overheating or bad air is reported. Both phenomena may simultaneously impact on German urban structures and will demand closer attention now and in the future. Consequently, specific fields of action to adapt to climate change will be presented highlighting their possible contribution sustaining quality of life in cities.

  1. Change Impact Analysis of Crosscutting in Software Architectural Design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Berg, Klaas

    2006-01-01

    Software architectures should be amenable to changes in user requirements and implementation technology. The analysis of the impact of these changes can be based on traceability of architectural design elements. Design elements have dependencies with other software artifacts but also evolve in time.

  2. How is climate change impacting precipitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidari, A.; Houser, P. R.

    2015-12-01

    Water is an integrating component of the climate, energy and geochemical cycles, regulating biological and ecological activities at all spatial and temporal scales. The most significant climate warming manifestation would be a change in the distribution of precipitation and evaporation, and the exacerbation of extreme hydrologic events. Due to this phenomenon and the fact that precipitation is the most important component of the water cycle, the assumption of its stationarity for water management and engineering design should be examined closely. The precipitation Annual Maximum Series (AMS) over some stations in Virginia based on in situ data were been used as a starting point to examine this important issue. We analyzed the AMS precipitation on NOAA data for the stations close to Fairfax VA, looked for trends in extreme values, and applied our new method of Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) theory based on quadratic forms to address changes in those extreme values and to quantify non-stationarities. It is very important to address the extreme values of precipitation based on several statistical tests to have better understanding of climate change impact on the extreme water cycle events. In our study we compared our results with the conclusion on NOAA atlas 14 Ap.3 which found no sign of precipitation non-stationarity. We then assessed the impact of this uncertainty in IDF curves on the flood map of Fairfax and compared the results with the classic IDF curves.

  3. Estimates of the long-term U.S. economic impacts of global climate change-induced drought.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Loose, Verne W.; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-01-01

    While climate-change models have done a reasonable job of forecasting changes in global climate conditions over the past decades, recent data indicate that actual climate change may be much more severe. To better understand some of the potential economic impacts of these severe climate changes, Sandia economists estimated the impacts to the U.S. economy of climate change-induced impacts to U.S. precipitation over the 2010 to 2050 time period. The economists developed an impact methodology that converts changes in precipitation and water availability to changes in economic activity, and conducted simulations of economic impacts using a large-scale macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy.

  4. Change impact analysis for software product lines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jihen Maâzoun

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available A software product line (SPL represents a family of products in a given application domain. Each SPL is constructed to provide for the derivation of new products by covering a wide range of features in its domain. Nevertheless, over time, some domain features may become obsolete with the apparition of new features while others may become refined. Accordingly, the SPL must be maintained to account for the domain evolution. Such evolution requires a means for managing the impact of changes on the SPL models, including the feature model and design. This paper presents an automated method that analyzes feature model evolution, traces their impact on the SPL design, and offers a set of recommendations to ensure the consistency of both models. The proposed method defines a set of new metrics adapted to SPL evolution to identify the effort needed to maintain the SPL models consistently and with a quality as good as the original models. The method and its tool are illustrated through an example of an SPL in the Text Editing domain. In addition, they are experimentally evaluated in terms of both the quality of the maintained SPL models and the precision of the impact change management.

  5. Climate change and livestock: Impacts, adaptation, and mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Melissa Rojas-Downing

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Global demand for livestock products is expected to double by 2050, mainly due to improvement in the worldwide standard of living. Meanwhile, climate change is a threat to livestock production because of the impact on quality of feed crop and forage, water availability, animal and milk production, livestock diseases, animal reproduction, and biodiversity. This study reviews the global impacts of climate change on livestock production, the contribution of livestock production to climate change, and specific climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in the livestock sector. Livestock production will be limited by climate variability as animal water consumption is expected to increase by a factor of three, demand for agricultural lands increase due to need for 70% growth in production, and food security concern since about one-third of the global cereal harvest is used for livestock feed. Meanwhile, the livestock sector contributes 14.5% of global greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, driving further climate change. Consequently, the livestock sector will be a key player in the mitigation of GHG emissions and improving global food security. Therefore, in the transition to sustainable livestock production, there is a need for: a assessments related to the use of adaptation and mitigation measures tailored to the location and livestock production system in use, and b policies that support and facilitate the implementation of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures.

  6. The relative importance of impacts from climate change vs. emissions change on air pollution levels in the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. B. Hedegaard

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available So far several studies have analysed the impacts of climate change on future air pollution levels. Significant changes due to impacts of climate change have been made clear. Nevertheless, these changes are not yet included in national, regional or global air pollution reduction strategies. The changes in future air pollution levels are caused by both impacts from climate change and anthropogenic emission changes, the importance of which needs to be quantified and compared. In this study we use the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM driven by meteorological input data from the coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model ECHAM5/MPI-OM and forced with the newly developed RCP4.5 emissions. The relative importance of the climate signal and the signal from changes in anthropogenic emissions on the future ozone, black carbon (BC, total particulate matter with a diameter below 2.5 μm (total PM2.5 including BC, primary organic carbon (OC, mineral dust and secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA and total nitrogen (including NHx + NOy has been determined. For ozone, the impacts of anthropogenic emissions dominate, though a climate penalty is found in the Arctic region and northwestern Europe, where the signal from climate change dampens the effect from the projected emission reductions of anthropogenic ozone precursors. The investigated particles are even more dominated by the impacts from emission changes. For black carbon the emission signal dominates slightly at high latitudes, with an increase up to an order of magnitude larger, close to the emission sources in temperate and subtropical areas. Including all particulate matter with a diameter below 2.5 μm (total PM2.5 enhances the dominance from emissions change. In contrast, total nitrogen (NHx + NOy in parts of the Arctic and at low latitudes is dominated by impacts of climate change.

  7. Impacts of Rainfall and Forest Cover Change on Runoff in Small ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The impacts of climate change on water resources have received much attention globally especially in the last 30 years. Rainfall, the main driver of the hydrological cycle, has been varying in parts of the world in various ways. The picture is more complicated if impacts of land cover changes on water resources are also ...

  8. Disciplinary reporting affects the interpretation of climate change impacts in global oceans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauser, Donna D W; Tobin, Elizabeth D; Feifel, Kirsten M; Shah, Vega; Pietri, Diana M

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is affecting marine ecosystems, but different investigative approaches in physical, chemical, and biological disciplines may influence interpretations of climate-driven changes in the ocean. Here, we review the ocean change literature from 2007 to 2012 based on 461 of the most highly cited studies in physical and chemical oceanography and three biological subdisciplines. Using highly cited studies, we focus on research that has shaped recent discourse on climate-driven ocean change. Our review identified significant differences in spatial and temporal scales of investigation among disciplines. Physical/chemical studies had a median duration of 29 years (n = 150) and covered the greatest study areas (median 1.41 × 10(7) km(2) , n = 148). Few biological studies were conducted over similar spatial and temporal scales (median 8 years, n = 215; median 302 km(2) , n = 196), suggesting a more limited ability to separate climate-related responses from natural variability. We linked physical/chemical and biological disciplines by tracking studies examining biological responses to changing ocean conditions. Of the 545 biological responses recorded, a single physical or chemical stressor was usually implicated as the cause (59%), with temperature as the most common primary stressor (44%). The most frequently studied biological responses were changes in physiology (31%) and population abundance (30%). Differences in disciplinary studies, as identified in this review, can ultimately influence how researchers interpret climate-related impacts in marine systems. We identified research gaps and the need for more discourse in (1) the Indian and other Southern Hemisphere ocean basins; (2) research themes such as archaea, bacteria, viruses, mangroves, turtles, and ocean acidification; (3) physical and chemical stressors such as dissolved oxygen, salinity, and upwelling; and (4) adaptive responses of marine organisms to climate-driven ocean change. Our findings reveal

  9. Climate change, crop yields, and undernutrition: development of a model to quantify the impact of climate scenarios on child undernutrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, Simon J; Kovats, R Sari; Chalabi, Zaid

    2011-12-01

    Global climate change is anticipated to reduce future cereal yields and threaten food security, thus potentially increasing the risk of undernutrition. The causation of undernutrition is complex, and there is a need to develop models that better quantify the potential impacts of climate change on population health. We developed a model for estimating future undernutrition that accounts for food and nonfood (socioeconomic) causes and can be linked to available regional scenario data. We estimated child stunting attributable to climate change in five regions in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in 2050. We used current national food availability and undernutrition data to parameterize and validate a global model, using a process-driven approach based on estimations of the physiological relationship between a lack of food and stunting. We estimated stunting in 2050 using published modeled national calorie availability under two climate scenarios and a reference scenario (no climate change). We estimated that climate change will lead to a relative increase in moderate stunting of 1-29% in 2050 compared with a future without climate change. Climate change will have a greater impact on rates of severe stunting, which we estimated will increase by 23% (central SSA) to 62% (South Asia). Climate change is likely to impair future efforts to reduce child malnutrition in South Asia and SSA, even when economic growth is taken into account. Our model suggests that to reduce and prevent future undernutrition, it is necessary to both increase food access and improve socioeconomic conditions, as well as reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

  10. Limitations and pitfalls of climate change impact analysis on urban rainfall extremes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, P.; Olsson, J.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due...... to anthropogenic climate change. Current practices have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact results. Climate change may well be the driver that ensures that changes in urban drainage paradigms are identified...... and suitable solutions implemented. Design and optimization of urban drainage infrastructure considering climate change impacts and co-optimizing with other objectives will become ever more important to keep our cities liveable into the future....

  11. Verrucomicrobial community structure and abundance as indicators for changes in chemical factors linked to soil fertility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarrete, Acacio Aparecido; Soares, Tielle; Rossetto, Raffaella; van Veen, Johannes Antonie; Tsai, Siu Mui; Kuramae, Eiko Eurya

    2015-09-01

    Here we show that verrucomicrobial community structure and abundance are extremely sensitive to changes in chemical factors linked to soil fertility. Terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism fingerprint and real-time quantitative PCR assay were used to analyze changes in verrucomicrobial communities associated with contrasting soil nutrient conditions in tropical regions. In case study Model I ("Slash-and-burn deforestation") the verrucomicrobial community structures revealed disparate patterns in nutrient-enriched soils after slash-and-burn deforestation and natural nutrient-poor soils under an adjacent primary forest in the Amazonia (R = 0.819, P = 0.002). The relative proportion of Verrucomicrobia declined in response to increased soil fertility after slash-and-burn deforestation, accounting on average, for 4 and 2 % of the total bacterial signal, in natural nutrient-poor forest soils and nutrient-enriched deforested soils, respectively. In case study Model II ("Management practices for sugarcane") disparate patterns were revealed in sugarcane rhizosphere sampled on optimal and deficient soil fertility for sugarcane (R = 0.786, P = 0.002). Verrucomicrobial community abundance in sugarcane rhizosphere was negatively correlated with soil fertility, accounting for 2 and 5 % of the total bacterial signal, under optimal and deficient soil fertility conditions for sugarcane, respectively. In nutrient-enriched soils, verrucomicrobial community structures were related to soil factors linked to soil fertility, such as total nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and sum of bases, i.e., the sum of calcium, magnesium and potassium contents. We conclude that community structure and abundance represent important ecological aspects in soil verrucomicrobial communities for tracking the changes in chemical factors linked to soil fertility under tropical environmental conditions.

  12. The Northeastern United States Energy-Water Nexus: Climate Change Impacts and Alternative Water Management Strategies for the Power Sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miara, A.; Macknick, J.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Cohen, S. M.; Rosenzweig, B.

    2014-12-01

    The Northeastern United States (NE) relies heavily on thermoelectric power plants (90% of total capacity) to provide electricity to more than 70 million people. This region's power plants require consistent, large volumes of water at sufficiently cold temperatures to generate electricity efficiently, and withdraw approximately 10.5 trillion gallons of water annually. Previous findings indicate that assessments of future electricity pathways must account for water availability, water temperature and the changing climate, as changes in these conditions may limit operational efficiency in the future. To account for such electric system vulnerabilities, we have created a link between an electricity system capacity expansion model (ReEDS) and a hydrologic model that is coupled to a power plant simulation model (FrAMES-TP2M) that allows for a new approach to analyze electricity system development, performance, and environmental impacts. Together, these coupled tools allow us to estimate electricity development and operations in the context of a changing climate and impacts on the seasonal spatial and temporal variability of water resources, downstream thermal effluents that cause plant-to-plant interferences and harm aquatic habitat, economic costs of water conservation methods and associated carbon emissions. In this study, we test and compare a business-as-usual strategy with three alternative water management scenarios that include changes in cooling technologies and water sources utilized for the years 2014-2050. Results of these experiments can provide useful insight into the feasibility of the electricity expansion scenarios in terms of associated water use and thermal impacts, carbon emissions, the cost of generating electricity, and also highlight the importance of accounting for water resources in future power sector planning and performance assessments.

  13. Impact of unlinked deaths and coding changes on mortality trends in the Swiss National Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidlin, Kurt; Clough-Gorr, Kerri M; Spoerri, Adrian; Egger, Matthias; Zwahlen, Marcel

    2013-01-04

    Results of epidemiological studies linking census with mortality records may be affected by unlinked deaths and changes in cause of death classification. We examined these issues in the Swiss National Cohort (SNC). The SNC is a longitudinal study of the entire Swiss population, based on the 1990 (6.8 million persons) and 2000 (7.3 million persons) censuses. Among 1,053,393 deaths recorded 1991-2007 5.4% could not be linked using stringent probabilistic linkage. We included the unlinked deaths using pragmatic linkages and compared mortality rates for selected causes with official mortality rates. We also examined the impact of the 1995 change in cause of death coding from version 8 (with some additional rules) to version 10 of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD), using Poisson regression models with restricted cubic splines. Finally, we compared results from Cox models including and excluding unlinked deaths of the association of education, marital status, and nationality with selected causes of death. SNC mortality rates underestimated all cause mortality by 9.6% (range 2.4%-17.9%) in the 85+ population. Underestimation was less pronounced in years nearer the censuses and in the 75-84 age group. After including 99.7% of unlinked deaths, annual all cause SNC mortality rates were reflecting official rates (relative difference between -1.4% and +1.8%). In the 85+ population the rates for prostate and breast cancer dropped, by 16% and 21% respectively, between 1994 and 1995 coincident with the change in cause of death coding policy. For suicide in males almost no change was observed. Hazard ratios were only negligibly affected by including the unlinked deaths. A sudden decrease in breast (21% less, 95% confidence interval: 12%-28%) and prostate (16% less, 95% confidence interval: 7%-23%) cancer mortality rates in the 85+ population coincided with the 1995 change in cause of death coding policy. Unlinked deaths bias analyses of absolute mortality rates

  14. Impact of unlinked deaths and coding changes on mortality trends in the Swiss National Cohort

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schmidlin Kurt

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Results of epidemiological studies linking census with mortality records may be affected by unlinked deaths and changes in cause of death classification. We examined these issues in the Swiss National Cohort (SNC. Methods The SNC is a longitudinal study of the entire Swiss population, based on the 1990 (6.8 million persons and 2000 (7.3 million persons censuses. Among 1,053,393 deaths recorded 1991–2007 5.4% could not be linked using stringent probabilistic linkage. We included the unlinked deaths using pragmatic linkages and compared mortality rates for selected causes with official mortality rates. We also examined the impact of the 1995 change in cause of death coding from version 8 (with some additional rules to version 10 of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD, using Poisson regression models with restricted cubic splines. Finally, we compared results from Cox models including and excluding unlinked deaths of the association of education, marital status, and nationality with selected causes of death. Results SNC mortality rates underestimated all cause mortality by 9.6% (range 2.4% - 17.9% in the 85+ population. Underestimation was less pronounced in years nearer the censuses and in the 75–84 age group. After including 99.7% of unlinked deaths, annual all cause SNC mortality rates were reflecting official rates (relative difference between −1.4% and +1.8%. In the 85+ population the rates for prostate and breast cancer dropped, by 16% and 21% respectively, between 1994 and 1995 coincident with the change in cause of death coding policy. For suicide in males almost no change was observed. Hazard ratios were only negligibly affected by including the unlinked deaths. A sudden decrease in breast (21% less, 95% confidence interval: 12% - 28% and prostate (16% less, 95% confidence interval: 7% - 23% cancer mortality rates in the 85+ population coincided with the 1995 change in cause of death coding policy

  15. Impact of divorce on absenteeism levels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sonneveld, H.; Besseling, J.J.M.

    2008-01-01

    Changes in marital status may be linked with consecutive data on absenteeism from the occupational health services in the Netherlands. According to a recent study by TNO Work and Employment, it appears that divorce has an impact on absenteeism levels among employees. After a certain period following

  16. Modelling the economic impacts of addressing climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    This Power Point report presents highlights of the latest economic modelling of Canada's Kyoto commitment to address climate change. It presents framework assumptions and a snapshot under 4 scenarios. The objective of this report is to evaluate the national, sectoral, provincial and territorial impacts of the federal reference case policy package in which the emissions reduction target is 170 Mt from a business-as-usual scenario. The reference case policy package also includes 30 Mt of sinks from current packages of which 20 Mt are derived from the forestry sector and the remainder from agricultural sector. The report examined 4 scenarios based on 2 international carbon prices ($10 and $50) per tonne of carbon dioxide in 2010. The scenarios were also based on the fiscal assumptions that climate change initiatives and revenue losses would directly affect the governments' balances, or that the government balances are maintained by increasing personal income tax. A comparison of impacts under each of the 4 scenarios to 2010 was presented. The model presents impacts on GDP, employment, disposable income per household, and energy prices. 4 tabs., 4 figs

  17. Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donges, J. F.; Donner, R. V.; Marwan, N.; Breitenbach, S. F. M.; Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

    2015-05-01

    The Asian monsoon system is an important tipping element in Earth's climate with a large impact on human societies in the past and present. In light of the potentially severe impacts of present and future anthropogenic climate change on Asian hydrology, it is vital to understand the forcing mechanisms of past climatic regime shifts in the Asian monsoon domain. Here we use novel recurrence network analysis techniques for detecting episodes with pronounced non-linear changes in Holocene Asian monsoon dynamics recorded in speleothems from caves distributed throughout the major branches of the Asian monsoon system. A newly developed multi-proxy methodology explicitly considers dating uncertainties with the COPRA (COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models) approach and allows for detection of continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoon dynamics. Several epochs are characterised by non-linear regime shifts in Asian monsoon variability, including the periods around 8.5-7.9, 5.7-5.0, 4.1-3.7, and 3.0-2.4 ka BP. The timing of these regime shifts is consistent with known episodes of Holocene rapid climate change (RCC) and high-latitude Bond events. Additionally, we observe a previously rarely reported non-linear regime shift around 7.3 ka BP, a timing that matches the typical 1.0-1.5 ky return intervals of Bond events. A detailed review of previously suggested links between Holocene climatic changes in the Asian monsoon domain and the archaeological record indicates that, in addition to previously considered longer-term changes in mean monsoon intensity and other climatic parameters, regime shifts in monsoon complexity might have played an important role as drivers of migration, pronounced cultural changes, and the collapse of ancient human societies.

  18. Climate change impacts on flood risk and asset damages within mapped 100-year floodplains of the contiguous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wobus, Cameron; Gutmann, Ethan; Jones, Russell; Rissing, Matthew; Mizukami, Naoki; Lorie, Mark; Mahoney, Hardee; Wood, Andrew W.; Mills, David; Martinich, Jeremy

    2017-12-01

    A growing body of work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus potentially increasing flood damages in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1 % annual exceedance probability (1 % AEP, or 100-year) flood events at 57 116 stream reaches across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches USD 4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars), suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long term in terms of reduced flood damages. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages on a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1 % AEP floods). Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results indicate that monetary damages from inland flooding could be significantly reduced through substantial GHG mitigation.

  19. Climate change impacts on flood risk and asset damages within mapped 100-year floodplains of the contiguous United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Wobus

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A growing body of work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus potentially increasing flood damages in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1 % annual exceedance probability (1 % AEP, or 100-year flood events at 57 116 stream reaches across the contiguous United States (CONUS. We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the greenhouse gas (GHG emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches USD 4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars, suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long term in terms of reduced flood damages. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages on a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1 % AEP floods. Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results indicate that monetary damages from inland flooding could be significantly reduced through substantial GHG mitigation.

  20. Evaluation of climate change impact on extreme hydrological event ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Changes in hydrological extremes will have implications on the design of future hydraulic structures, flood plain development, and water resource management. This study assesses the potential impact of climate change on extreme hydrological events in the Akaki River catchment area in and around Addis Ababa city.

  1. Learning to adapt: Organisational adaptation to climate change impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berkhout, F.G.H.; Hertin, J.; Gann, D.M.

    2006-01-01

    Analysis of human adaptation to climate change should be based on realistic models of adaptive behaviour at the level of organisations and individuals. The paper sets out a framework for analysing adaptation to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in business organisations with new

  2. Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayhoe, Katharine; Cayan, Daniel; Field, Christopher B.; Frumhoff, Peter C.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Miller, Norman L.; Moser, Susanne C.; Schneider, Stephen H.; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Cleland, Elsa E.; Dale, Larry; Drapek, Ray; Hanemann, R. Michael; Kalkstein, Laurence S.; Lenihan, James; Lunch, Claire K.; Neilson, Ronald P.; Sheridan, Scott C.; Verville, Julia H.

    2004-01-01

    The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50–75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30–70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75–90%; and snowpack declines 73–90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades. PMID:15314227

  3. Placing lochs in their landscapes: linking landscape ecology, ecohydrology and conservation interest in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muir, M. C.; Spray, C. J.; Rowan, J. S.

    2011-12-01

    Scotland is a country with outstanding freshwater systems providing multiple social, economic and cultural functions as well as ecological services of international importance. Scotland's lakes (locally termed lochs) occupy approximately 3% of the country's land mass and contain more than 90% of Great Britain's total freshwater resource. With over 25,000 lochs (surface area greater than 0.1 hectares) standing freshwaters are an iconic part of Scotland's landscape and they come in a myriad of forms and sizes contributing outstanding geodiversity as well as habitats of international importance for numerous species of conservation interest. There is undoubtedly a need to protect the conservation interests of designated sites in the face of changing loch and catchment pressures - which include diffuse pollutants, morphological modification, recreation and invasive species. Climate change presents a new set of challenges with potential impacts across the entire standing water resource base and predicting how these systems might respond to these changes greatly amplifies uncertainties implicit in their environmental management. Global climate change is predicted to be a major cause of change across all ecosystems and there are particular concerns about impacts on freshwater systems due to the coupling of impacts to both hydrology and ecology. Climate change is likely to affect the hydrological cycle in a number of ways, most significantly through changing temperature and precipitation patterns, intensities and extremes. These changes, coupled with reduced snow and ice cover, frequency and duration, will lead to changes in soil moisture conditions and subsequently runoff. This is turn will impact on river flow, loch water levels, epilimnic temperatures, nutrient availability and, subsequently, the ecological structure and function of the entire standing water system. For some species these habitat changes will push them to the very limits of their natural tolerances and a

  4. Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Jesse E; Brown, Claudia Langford; Conlon, Kathryn; Herring, Stephanie; Kunkel, Kenneth E; Lawrimore, Jay; Luber, George; Schreck, Carl; Smith, Adam; Uejio, Christopher

    2018-04-01

    Extreme weather and climate-related events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, dust storms, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden. More information is needed about the impacts of climate change on public health and economies to effectively plan for and adapt to climate change. This paper describes some of the ways extreme events are changing and provides examples of the potential impacts on human health and infrastructure. It also identifies key research gaps to be addressed to improve the resilience of public health to extreme events in the future. Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden.

  5. Impact of Climate Change Effects on Contamination of Cereal Grains with Deoxynivalenol

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Fels-Klerx, H J; van Asselt, E D; Madsen, M S

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to aggravate feed and food safety problems of crops; however, quantitative estimates are scarce. This study aimed to estimate impacts of climate change effects on deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat and maize grown in the Netherlands by 2040. Quantitative modelling...... the impacts of climate change effects on food safety, and of considering both direct and indirect effects when assessing climate change impacts on crops and related food safety hazards....... two different global and regional climate model combinations were used. A weather generator was applied for downscaling climate data to local conditions. Crop phenology models and prediction models for DON contamination used, each for winter wheat and grain maize. Results showed that flowering...

  6. Perceptions of climate change and its impact on human health: an integrated quantitative and qualitative approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toan, Do Thi Thanh; Kien, Vu Duy; Bao Giang, Kim; Van Minh, Hoang; Wright, Pamela

    2014-01-01

    The World Health Organization emphasized that climate change is a significant and emerging threat to public health, especially in lower income populations and tropical/subtropical countries. However, people in Asia and Africa were the least likely to perceive global warming as a threat. In Vietnam, little research has been conducted concerning the perceptions of effects of climate change on human health. The aim of this study was to explore the perceptions on climate change and its impact on human health among people in Hanoi. We applied a combined quantitative and qualitative approach to study perceptions on climate change among people in Hanoi. A total of 1,444 people were recruited, including 754 people living in non-slum areas and 690 people living in slum areas of Hanoi. A structured questionnaire was used to collect quantitative data on their perceptions. In a parallel qualitative study, two focus group discussions and 12 in-depth interviews (IDs) were carried out involving 24 people from both slum and non-slum areas. The majority of the respondents in the study had heard about climate change and its impact on human health (79.3 and 70.1% in non-slum and slum areas, respectively). About one third of the respondents reported that members of their family had experienced illness in the recent summer and winter compared to the same seasons 5 years ago. The most common symptoms reported during hot weather were headaches, fatigue, and dizziness; hypertension and other cardiovascular diseases were also reported. During cold weather, people reported experiencing cough, fever, and influenza, as well as pneumonia and emerging infectious diseases such as dengue and Japanese encephalitis. The observed high level of awareness on the links between climate change and human health may help to increase the success of the National Prevention Program on Climate Change. Moreover, understanding the concerns of the people may help policy makers to develop and implement effective

  7. Perceptions of climate change and its impact on human health: an integrated quantitative and qualitative approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Do Thi Thanh Toan

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: The World Health Organization emphasized that climate change is a significant and emerging threat to public health, especially in lower income populations and tropical/subtropical countries. However, people in Asia and Africa were the least likely to perceive global warming as a threat. In Vietnam, little research has been conducted concerning the perceptions of effects of climate change on human health. Objective: The aim of this study was to explore the perceptions on climate change and its impact on human health among people in Hanoi. Design: We applied a combined quantitative and qualitative approach to study perceptions on climate change among people in Hanoi. A total of 1,444 people were recruited, including 754 people living in non-slum areas and 690 people living in slum areas of Hanoi. A structured questionnaire was used to collect quantitative data on their perceptions. In a parallel qualitative study, two focus group discussions and 12 in-depth interviews (IDs were carried out involving 24 people from both slum and non-slum areas. Results: The majority of the respondents in the study had heard about climate change and its impact on human health (79.3 and 70.1% in non-slum and slum areas, respectively. About one third of the respondents reported that members of their family had experienced illness in the recent summer and winter compared to the same seasons 5 years ago. The most common symptoms reported during hot weather were headaches, fatigue, and dizziness; hypertension and other cardiovascular diseases were also reported. During cold weather, people reported experiencing cough, fever, and influenza, as well as pneumonia and emerging infectious diseases such as dengue and Japanese encephalitis. Conclusions: The observed high level of awareness on the links between climate change and human health may help to increase the success of the National Prevention Program on Climate Change. Moreover, understanding the concerns of

  8. Evaluating confidence in the impact of regulatory nutrient reduction and assessing the competing impact of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irby, I.; Friedrichs, M. A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Human impacts on the Chesapeake Bay through increased nutrient run-off as a result of land-use change, urbanization, and industrialization, have resulted in a degradation of water quality over the last half-century. These direct impacts, compounded with human-induced climate changes such as warming, rising sea level, and changes in precipitation, have elevated the conversation surrounding the future of the Bay's water quality. As a result, in 2010, a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) was established for the Chesapeake Bay that limited nutrient and sediment input in an effort to increase dissolved oxygen. This research utilizes a multiple model approach to evaluate confidence in the estuarine water quality modeling portion of the TMDL. One of the models is then used to assess the potential impact climate change may have on the success of currently mandated nutrient reduction levels in 2050. Results demonstrate that although the models examined differ structurally and in biogeochemical complexity, they project a similar attainment of regulatory water quality standards after nutrient reduction, while also establishing that meeting water quality standards is relatively independent of hydrologic conditions. By developing a Confidence Index, this research identifies the locations and causes of greatest uncertainty in modeled projections of water quality. Although there are specific locations and times where the models disagree, this research lends an increased degree of confidence in the appropriateness of the TMDL levels and in the general impact nutrient reductions will have on Chesapeake Bay water quality under current environmental conditions. However, when examining the potential impacts of climate change, this research shows that the combined impacts of increasing temperature, sea level, and river flow negatively affect dissolved oxygen throughout the Chesapeake Bay and impact progress towards meeting the water quality standards associated with the TMDL with

  9. Linking land use change to recreational fishery valuation with a spatially explicit behavior model: A case study from Tampa Bay, FL USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drawing a link between habitat change and production and delivery of ecosystem services is a priority in coastal estuarine ecosystems. This link is needed to fully understand how human communities can influence ecosystem sustainability. Mechanistic modeling tools are highly fun...

  10. Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change threatens human health and well-being in the United States. To address this growing threat, the Interagency Group on Climate Change and Human Health (CCHHG), a working group of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s (USGCRP), has developed this assessment as part of the ongoing efforts of the USGCRP’s National Climate Assessment (NCA) and as called for under the President’s Climate Action Plan. The authors of this assessment have compiled and assessed current research on human health impacts of climate change and summarized the current “state of the science” for a number of key impact areas. This assessment provides a comprehensive update to the most recent detailed technical assessment for the health impacts of climate change, 2008 Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.6 (SAP 4.6) Analyses of the Effects of Global Change on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems (CCSP 2008). It also updates and builds upon the health chapter of the third NCA (Melillo et al. 2014). The lead and coordinating Federal agencies for the USGCRP Climate and Health Assessment are the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), National Institute of Health (NIH), and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Available at https://health2016.globalchange.gov/ The interagency U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) has developed this assessment as part of the ongoing efforts of their National C

  11. Climate change and States security: an operational link to develop locally and on the medium term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taithe, Alexandre

    2007-01-01

    The author first notices that climate change and environmental degradations induce new logics in international relationships, and then discusses how consequences of climate change can be factors of instability for States, and how to address them. He recalls and comments the main effects of climate change as they have been described in IPCC reports. He outlines limitations of conventional approaches in terms of direct and indirect impacts on States. Direct effects concern territories (for example, a modification of borders due to sea level rise or to erosion), populations (impact of extreme events on housing, on health) and the economy (more particularly the primary sector and high levels of adaptation costs). The author outlines the limitations of these global models, and proposes additional and corrective approaches: hybrid (regional and global) approaches, local and medium term-based approach (some natural resource management can be assessed and organised only locally). An appendix proposes a contribution of an IPCC work-group in which impacts, adaptation and vulnerabilities of the different regions of the world in front of climate changes are summarized

  12. Socio-Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Africa | Igbokwe ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper examined the arguments for and against the climate change phenomenon and attempted to weigh in with presentation of available evidence. It finally drew from literature and reviewed possible impacts of climate change in Africa. It concluded by calling for a wakening and preparedness by African governments ...

  13. Impacts of climate change, variability and adaptation strategies on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Impacts of climate change, variability and adaptation strategies on agriculture in semi arid areas of Tanzania: The case of Manyoni District in Singida Region, Tanzania. ... The changes have affected crops and livestock in a number of ways resulting in reduced productivity. Empirical analysis of rainfall suggest decreasing ...

  14. Framing risk and uncertainty in social science articles on climate change, 1995–2012

    OpenAIRE

    Shaw, Chris; Hellsten, Iina; Nerlich, Brigitte

    2016-01-01

    The issue of climate change is intimately linked to notions of risk and uncertainty, concepts that pose challenges to climate science, climate change communication, and science-society interactions. While a large majority of climate scientists are increasingly certain about the causes of climate change and the risks posed by its impacts (see IPCC, 2013 and 2014), public perception of climate change is still largely framed by uncertainty, especially regarding impacts (Poortinga et al., 2011). ...

  15. Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bindi, M.; Palosuo, T.; Trnka, Miroslav; Semenov, M. A.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 65, SEP (2015), s. 3-5 ISSN 0936-577X Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Crop production Upscaling * Climate change impact and adaptation assessments * Upscaling * Model ensembles Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.690, year: 2015

  16. The impact of climate change on smallholder and subsistence agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, John F

    2007-12-11

    Some of the most important impacts of global climate change will be felt among the populations, predominantly in developing countries, referred to as "subsistence" or "smallholder" farmers. Their vulnerability to climate change comes both from being predominantly located in the tropics, and from various socioeconomic, demographic, and policy trends limiting their capacity to adapt to change. However, these impacts will be difficult to model or predict because of (i) the lack of standardised definitions of these sorts of farming system, and therefore of standard data above the national level, (ii) intrinsic characteristics of these systems, particularly their complexity, their location-specificity, and their integration of agricultural and nonagricultural livelihood strategies, and (iii) their vulnerability to a range of climate-related and other stressors. Some recent work relevant to these farming systems is reviewed, a conceptual framework for understanding the diverse forms of impacts in an integrated manner is proposed, and future research needs are identified.

  17. The Impact of Climate Change on the United States Economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendelsohn, Robert; Neumann, James E.

    2004-08-01

    Understanding the impacts of climate change on economic behaviour is an important aspect of deciding when to take policy actions to prevent or mitigate its consequences. This book applies advanced new economics methodologies to assess impacts on potentially vulnerable aspects of the US economy: agriculture, timber, coastal resources, energy expenditure, fishing, outdoor recreation. It is intended to provide improved understanding of key issues raised in the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. It concludes that some climate change may produce economic gains in the agriculture and forestry sectors, whereas energy, coastal structures, and water sectors may be harmed. The book will serve as an important reference for the scientific, economic, and policy community, and will also be of interest to natural resource/environmental economists as an example of economic valuation techniques. The volume will clearly be of main importance to researchers and policymakers in the US, but will also be influential as a model for assessment of impacts on economies worldwide.

  18. The health impacts of climate change and variability in developing countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menne, B. [WHO European Centre for Environment and Health, Rome (Italy). Global Change and Health; Kunzil, N. [Institute for Social and Preventive Medicine University, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Basel and Keck School of Medicine; Bertollini, R. [WHO Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen (Denmark). Technical Support Div.

    2002-07-01

    Health is a focus reflecting the combined impacts of climate change on the physical environment, ecosystems, the economic environment and society. Long-term changes in the world's climate may affect many requisites of good health - sufficient food, safe and adequate drinking water and secure dwelling. The current large-scale social and environmental changes mean that we must assign a much higher priority to population health in the policy debate on climate change. Climate change will affect human health and wellbeing through a variety of mechanisms. Climate change can adversely impact on the availability of fresh water supply and the efficiency of local sewerage systems. It is also likely to affect food security. Cereal yields are expected to increase at high and mid latitudes but decrease at lower latitudes. Changes in food production are likely to significantly affect health in Africa. In addition, the distribution and seasonal transmission of several vector-borne infectious diseases (such as malaria and dengue) may be affected by climate change. Altered distribution of some vector species may be among the early signals of climate change. A change in the world climate could increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. The impacts on health of natural disasters are considerable - the number of people killed, injured or made homeless from such causes is increasingly alarming. The vulnerability of people living in risk-prone areas is an important contributor to disaster casualties and damage. An increase in heatwaves (and possibly air pollution) will be a problem in urban areas, where excess mortality and morbidity is currently observed during hot weather episodes. We can assume that climate change will affect the most vulnerable in developing countries. These might be socio-economic deprived populations, people who lack access to a health care system, technology and communication, as well as immuno compromised persons. The health community

  19. The effect of a change in mutation rate on the incidence of dominant and X-linked recessive disorders in man

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Childs, J.D.

    1981-01-01

    In order to assess the impact on man of a sustained change in mutation rate that might be caused by ionizing radiation or a chemical mutagen in the environment, it is important to determine the current incidence of genetic disease, the rate at which deleterious mutations arise and the number of generations that mutations persist before eliminated by selection. From these data it should be possible to estimate both the increase in genetic disease in the first generation following the increase in mutation rate, and the rate at which a new equilibrium between mutation and selection would occur. In this paper the results of a survey to determine birth frequency, mutation rate and reproductive fitness for each of the important dominant and X-linked recessive disorders are described. It is estimated that these disorders affect about 0.6% of live-born individuals, including 0.1% of live-borns who carry a newly-arising mutation. (orig.)

  20. Ecosystem-groundwater interactions under changing land uses: Linking water, salts, and carbon across central Argentina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jobbagy, E. G.; Nosetto, M. D.; Santoni, C. S.; Jackson, R. B.

    2007-05-01

    Although most ecosystems display a one-way connection with groundwater based on the regulation of deep water drainage (recharge), this link can become reciprocal when the saturated zone is shallow and plants take up groundwater (discharge). In what context is the reciprocal link most likely? How is it affected by land use changes? Has it consequences on salt and carbon cycling? We examine these questions across a precipitation gradient in the Pampas and Espinal of Argentina focusing on three vegetation change situations (mean annual rainfall): afforestation of humid (900-1300 mm) and subhumid grassland (700-900 mm/yr of rainfall), annual cultivation of subhumid grasslands (700-800 mm/yr), and annual cultivation of semiarid forests (500-700 mm). Humid and subhumid grasslands have shallow (measurements. Groundwater contributions enhance carbon uptake in plantations compared to grasslands as suggested by aboveground biomass measurements and satellite vegetation indexes from sites with and without access to groundwater. Where rainfall is 15 m deep) and recharge under natural conditions is null. The establishment of crops, however, triggers the onset of recharge, as evidenced by vadose zones getting wetter and leached of atmospheric chloride. Cropping may cause water table raises leading to a two-way coupling of ecosystems and groundwater in the future, as it has been documented for similar settings in Australia and the Sahel. In the Pampas land use change interacts with groundwater consumption leading to higher carbon uptake (humid and subhumid grasslands) and salt accumulation (subhumid grasslands). In the Espinal (semiarid forest) land use change currently involves a one-way effect on groundwater recharge that may switch to a reciprocal connection if regional water table raises occur. Neglecting the role of groundwater in flat sedimentary plains can obscure our understanding of carbon and salt cycling and curtail our attempts to sustain soil and water resources under

  1. Impact of monetary policy changes on the Chinese monetary and stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Yong; Luo, Yong; Xiong, Jie; Zhao, Fei; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

    2013-10-01

    The impact of monetary policy changes on the monetary market and stock market in China is investigated in this study. The changes of two major monetary policies, the interest rate and required reserve ratio, are analyzed in a study period covering seven years on the interbank monetary market and Shanghai stock market. We find that the monetary market is related to the macro economy trend and we also find that the monetary change surprises both of lowering and raising bring significant impacts to the two markets and the two markets respond to the changes differently. The results suggest that the impact of fluctuations is much larger for raising policy changes than lowering changes in the monetary market on policy announcing and effective dates. This is consistent with the “sign effect”, i.e. bad news brings a greater impact than good news. By studying the event window of each policy change, we also find that the “sign effect” still exists before and after each change in the monetary market. A relatively larger fluctuation is observed before the event date, which indicates that the monetary market might have a certain ability to predict a potential monetary change, while it is kept secret by the central bank before official announcement. In the stock market, we investigate how the returns and spreads of the Shanghai stock market index respond to the monetary changes. Evidences suggest the stock market is influenced but in a different way than the monetary market. The climbing of returns after the event dates for the lowering policy agrees with the theory that lowering changes can provide a monetary supply to boost the market and drive the stock returns higher but with a delay of 2 to 3 trading days on average. While in the bear market, the lowering policy brings larger volatility to the market on average than the raising ones. These empirical findings are useful for policymakers to understand how monetary policy changes impact the monetary and stock markets

  2. Macroeconomic impacts of climate change mitigation in Latin America: A cross-model comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kober, Tom; Summerton, Philip; Pollitt, Hector; Chewpreecha, Unnada; Ren, Xiaolin; Wills, William; Octaviano, Claudia; McFarland, James; Beach, Robert; Cai, Yongxia; Calderon, Silvia; Fisher-Vanden, Karen; Rodriguez, Ana Maria Loboguerrero

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we analyse macroeconomic consequences of greenhouse gas emission mitigation in Latin America up to 2050 through a multi-model comparison approach undertaken in the context of the CLIMACAP–LAMP research project. We compare two carbon tax scenarios with a business-as-usual scenario of anticipated future energy demand. In the short term, with carbon prices reaching around $15/tCO_2 by 2030, most models agree that the reduction in consumer spending, as a proxy for welfare, is limited to about 0.3%. By 2050, at carbon prices of $165/tCO_2, there is much more divergence in the estimated impact on consumer spending as well as GDP across models and regions, which reflects uncertainties about technology costs and substitution opportunities between technologies. We observe that the consequences of increasingly higher carbon prices, in terms of reduced consumer spending and GDP, tend to be fairly linear with the carbon price in our CGE models. However, the consequences are divergent and nonlinear in our econometric model, that is linked to an energy system model that simulates step-changes in technology substitution. The results of one model show that climate policy measures can have positive effects on consumer spending and GDP, which results from an investment stimulus and the redistribution of carbon price revenues to consumers. - Highlights: • Depending on the model approach negative and positive macro-economic impacts are possible if carbon taxes are introduced. • Limited impact of moderate carbon taxes (up to $15/tCO_2 by 2030) on consumer spending in the medium-term • Impact of High CO_2 prices (around $165/tCO_2 in 2050) on GDP 5% at most in the long-term

  3. Assessment of the Health Impacts of Climate Change in Kiribati

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIver, Lachlan; Woodward, Alistair; Davies, Seren; Tibwe, Tebikau; Iddings, Steven

    2014-01-01

    Kiribati—a low-lying, resource-poor Pacific atoll nation—is one of the most vulnerable countries in the World to the impacts of climate change, including the likely detrimental effects on human health. We describe the preparation of a climate change and health adaptation plan for Kiribati carried out by the World Health Organization and the Kiribati Ministry of Health and Medical Services, including an assessment of risks to health, sources of vulnerability and suggestions for highest priority adaptation responses. This paper identifies advantages and disadvantages in the process that was followed, lays out a future direction of climate change and health adaptation work in Kiribati, and proposes lessons that may be applicable to other small, developing island nations as they prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change on health. PMID:24830452

  4. A longitudinal study on the impact of income change and poverty on smoking cessation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young-Hoon, Kit-Ngan

    2012-01-01

    Research on the association between income and smoking cessation has examined income as a static phenomenon, either cross-sectionally or as a predictor variable in longitudinal studies. This study recognizes income as a dynamic entity and examines the relationship between a change in income and subsequent smoking behaviour. Longitudinal data from the National Population Health Survey (1994/5 to 2008/9) were used to examine the impact of (1) change in income and (2) change in poverty status, on the probability of being a former or current smoker among a sample of Canadians identified as having ever smoked. Covariates include socio-demographic characteristics, number of cigarettes smoked per day, and smoking in the home. Smoking behaviour was not associated with a change in household income but was associated with a change in household income that moved an individual across the poverty threshold. Canadians whose income increased to above the poverty threshold were less likely to continue smoking than someone who remained in poverty (OR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.62-0.84). Those who remained out of poverty were also less likely to continue smoking than someone who remained in poverty (OR = 0.66, 95% CI: 0.57-0.75). There was no significant difference between those who remained in poverty and those whose income decreased to below the poverty level. This study strengthens the link between smoking and poverty and supports strategies that address income as a socio-economic determinant of health. Policies that increase household incomes above the poverty line may lead to improvements in smoking cessation rates.

  5. Adapting to and coping with the threat and impacts of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reser, Joseph P; Swim, Janet K

    2011-01-01

    This article addresses the nature and challenge of adaptation in the context of global climate change. The complexity of "climate change" as threat, environmental stressor, risk domain, and impacting process with dramatic environmental and human consequences requires a synthesis of perspectives and models from diverse areas of psychology to adequately communicate and explain how a more psychological framing of the human dimensions of global environmental change can greatly inform and enhance effective and collaborative climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and research. An integrative framework is provided that identifies and considers important mediating and moderating parameters and processes relating to climate change adaptation, with particular emphasis given to environmental stress and stress and coping perspectives. This psychological perspective on climate change adaptation highlights crucial aspects of adaptation that have been neglected in the arena of climate change science. Of particular importance are intra-individual and social "psychological adaptation" processes that powerfully mediate public risk perceptions and understandings, effective coping responses and resilience, overt behavioral adjustment and change, and psychological and social impacts. This psychological window on climate change adaptation is arguably indispensable to genuinely multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary research and policy initiatives addressing the impacts of climate change.

  6. Influence of Geographic Factors on the Life Cycle Climate Change Impacts of Renewable Energy Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortier, M. O. P.

    2017-12-01

    Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a valuable tool to measure the cradle-to-grave climate change impacts of the sustainable energy systems that are planned to replace conventional fossil energy-based systems. The recent inclusion of geographic specificity in bioenergy LCAs has shown that the relative sustainability of these energy sources is often dependent on geographic factors, such as the climate change impact of changing the land cover and local resource availability. However, this development has not yet been implemented to most LCAs of energy systems that do not have biological feedstocks, such as wind, water, and solar-based energy systems. For example, the tidal velocity where tidal rotors are installed can significantly alter the life cycle climate change impacts of electricity generated using the same technology in different locations. For LCAs of solar updraft towers, the albedo change impacts arising from changing the reflectivity of the land that would be converted can be of the same magnitude as other life cycle process climate change impacts. Improvements to determining the life cycle climate change impacts of renewable energy technologies can be made by utilizing GIS and satellite data and by conducting site-specific analyses. This practice can enhance our understanding of the life cycle environmental impacts of technologies that are aimed to reduce the impacts of our current energy systems, and it can improve the siting of new systems to optimize a reduction in climate change impacts.

  7. Scaling up: Assessing social impacts at the macro-scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schirmer, Jacki

    2011-01-01

    Social impacts occur at various scales, from the micro-scale of the individual to the macro-scale of the community. Identifying the macro-scale social changes that results from an impacting event is a common goal of social impact assessment (SIA), but is challenging as multiple factors simultaneously influence social trends at any given time, and there are usually only a small number of cases available for examination. While some methods have been proposed for establishing the contribution of an impacting event to macro-scale social change, they remain relatively untested. This paper critically reviews methods recommended to assess macro-scale social impacts, and proposes and demonstrates a new approach. The 'scaling up' method involves developing a chain of logic linking change at the individual/site scale to the community scale. It enables a more problematised assessment of the likely contribution of an impacting event to macro-scale social change than previous approaches. The use of this approach in a recent study of change in dairy farming in south east Australia is described.

  8. Climate change impacts and uncertainties in flood risk management: Examples from the North Sea Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lawrence, D.; Graham, L.P.; Besten, J. Den; Andreasson, J.; Bergstroem, S.; Engen-Skaugen, T.; Foerland, E.; Groen, R.; Jespersen, M.; Jong, K. de; Olsson, J.

    2012-07-01

    This report presents methods used for estimating the hydrological impacts of climate change and their uncertainties, the expected impacts on extreme flows in Norway, and in Sweden with particular reference to Lake Vaenern, and examples of climate change impacts on river discharge and on agriculture in the Netherlands. Work considering changes in extreme precipitation is also reported, as are methods and strategies for communicating climate change impacts in flood management practice. (eb)

  9. Assessing impact of climate change on season length in Karnataka

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Changes in seasons and season length are an indicator, as well as an effect, of climate change. Seasonal change profoundly affects the balance of life in ecosystems and impacts essential human activities such as agriculture and irrigation. This study investigates the uncertainty of season length in Karnataka state, India, ...

  10. Health Impact Assessment: Linking Public Health to ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The goal of this presentation is to explore how HIA can help inform hazardous waste permitting regulations and incorporate community vulnerability and cumulative impacts to their potential health risks into permitting decision making by the California Department of Toxic Substances Control. Presented the Health Impact Assessment (HIA) at the State of California Cumulative Impacts and Community Vulnerability Symposium on July 27 in Diamond Bar, CA.

  11. Using Impact-Relevant Sensitivities to Efficiently Evaluate and Select Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vano, J. A.; Kim, J. B.; Rupp, D. E.; Mote, P.

    2014-12-01

    We outline an efficient approach to help researchers and natural resource managers more effectively use global climate model information in their long-term planning. The approach provides an estimate of the magnitude of change of a particular impact (e.g., summertime streamflow) from a large ensemble of climate change projections prior to detailed analysis. These estimates provide both qualitative information as an end unto itself (e.g., the distribution of future changes between emissions scenarios for the specific impact) and a judicious, defensible evaluation structure that can be used to qualitatively select a sub-set of climate models for further analysis. More specifically, the evaluation identifies global climate model scenarios that both (1) span the range of possible futures for the variable/s most important to the impact under investigation, and (2) come from global climate models that adequately simulate historical climate, providing plausible results for the future climate in the region of interest. To identify how an ecosystem process responds to projected future changes, we methodically sample, using a simple sensitivity analysis, how an impact variable (e.g., streamflow magnitude, vegetation carbon) responds locally to projected regional temperature and precipitation changes. We demonstrate our technique over the Pacific Northwest, focusing on two types of impacts each in three distinct geographic settings: (a) changes in streamflow magnitudes in critical seasons for water management in the Willamette, Yakima, and Upper Columbia River basins; and (b) changes in annual vegetation carbon in the Oregon and Washington Coast Ranges, Western Cascades, and Columbia Basin ecoregions.

  12. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

    2015-09-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from 32.7 billion to 54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

  13. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

    2015-09-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from $32.7 billion to $54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

  14. Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2011 - part 2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - estimating impacts and valuing damages on a sectoral basis.

  15. Simulation of Land-Cover Change in Taipei Metropolitan Area under Climate Change Impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Kuo-Ching; Huang, Thomas C C

    2014-01-01

    Climate change causes environment change and shows up on land covers. Through observing the change of land use, researchers can find out the trend and potential mechanism of the land cover change. Effective adaptation policies can affect pattern of land cover change and may decrease the risks of climate change impacts. By simulating land use dynamics with scenario settings, this paper attempts to explore the relationship between climate change and land-cover change through efficient adaptation polices. It involves spatial statistical model in estimating possibility of land-cover change, cellular automata model in modeling land-cover dynamics, and scenario analysis in response to adaptation polices. The results show that, without any control, the critical eco-areas, such as estuarine areas, will be destroyed and people may move to the vulnerable and important economic development areas. In the other hand, under the limited development condition for adaptation, people migration to peri-urban and critical eco-areas may be deterred

  16. Climatically-mediated landcover change: impacts on Brazilian territory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARINA ZANIN

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT In the face of climate change threats, governments are drawing attention to policies for mitigating its effects on biodiversity. However, the lack of distribution data makes predictions at species level a difficult task, mainly in regions of higher biodiversity. To overcome this problem, we use native landcover as a surrogate biodiversity, because it can represent specialized habitat for species, and investigate the effects of future climate change on Brazilian biomes. We characterize the climatic niches of native landcover and use ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Our results highlight expansion of the distribution of open vegetation and the contraction of closed forests. Drier Brazilian biomes, like Caatinga and Cerrado, are predicted to expand their distributions, being the most resistant to climate change impacts. However, these would also be affected by losses of their closed forest enclaves and their habitat-specific or endemic species. Replacement by open vegetation and overall reductions are a considerable risk for closed forest, threatening Amazon and Atlantic forest biomes. Here, we evidence the impacts of climate change on Brazilian biomes, and draw attention to the necessity for management and attenuation plans to guarantee the future of Brazilian biodiversity.

  17. Climatically-mediated landcover change: impacts on Brazilian territory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanin, Marina; Tessarolo, Geiziane; Machado, Nathália; Albernaz, Ana Luisa M

    2017-01-01

    In the face of climate change threats, governments are drawing attention to policies for mitigating its effects on biodiversity. However, the lack of distribution data makes predictions at species level a difficult task, mainly in regions of higher biodiversity. To overcome this problem, we use native landcover as a surrogate biodiversity, because it can represent specialized habitat for species, and investigate the effects of future climate change on Brazilian biomes. We characterize the climatic niches of native landcover and use ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Our results highlight expansion of the distribution of open vegetation and the contraction of closed forests. Drier Brazilian biomes, like Caatinga and Cerrado, are predicted to expand their distributions, being the most resistant to climate change impacts. However, these would also be affected by losses of their closed forest enclaves and their habitat-specific or endemic species. Replacement by open vegetation and overall reductions are a considerable risk for closed forest, threatening Amazon and Atlantic forest biomes. Here, we evidence the impacts of climate change on Brazilian biomes, and draw attention to the necessity for management and attenuation plans to guarantee the future of Brazilian biodiversity.

  18. Climate change impacts on water barriers and possibilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Peter

    in precipitation in 2100 and regional warming. Peak run-off will be displaced from spring to winter, run-off may be reduced by more than 40 % because of warming and rivers in the driest valleys may become intermittent streams with no water for irrigation except if minor reservoirs are constructed. In conclusion......The purpose is to elucidate climate change impacts on water related to precipitation, catchment hydrology, water management and land development in fruit export regions at the desert margin in Chile. The case is a region exposed to intense globalization and severe climate change. A timeline (past......, present, future) was applied to four valleys for comparative purposes. Data collection included field observations, semi-structured interviews, archives and library investigations. Precipitation decreased during the last century and varied as a function of El Niño Southern Oscillation impacts...

  19. Seasonal Changes in Tropospheric Ozone Concentrations over South Korea and Its Link to Ozone Precursors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, H. C.; Moon, B. K.; Wie, J.

    2017-12-01

    Concentration of tropospheric ozone over South Korea has steadily been on the rise in the last decades, mainly due to rapid industrializing and urbanizing in the Eastern Asia. To identify the characteristics of tropospheric ozone in South Korea, we fitted a sine function to the surface ozone concentration data from 2005 to 2014. Based on fitted sine curves, we analyzed the shifts in the dates on which ozone concentration reached its peak in the calendar year. Ozone monitoring sites can be classified into type types: where the highest annual ozone concentration kept occurring sooner (Esites) and those that kept occurring later (Lsites). The seasonal analysis shows that the surface ozone had increased more rapidly in Esites than in Lsites in the past decade during springtime and vice-versa during summertime. We tried to find the reason for the different seasonal trends with the relationship between ozone and ozone precursors. As a result, it was found that the changes in the ground-level ozone concentration in the spring and summer times are considerably influenced by changes in nitrogen dioxide concentration, and this is closely linked to the destruction (production) process of ozone by nitrogen dioxide in spring (summer). The link between tropospheric ozone and nitrogen dioxide discussed in this study will have to be thoroughly examined through climate-chemistry modeling in the future. Acknowledgements This research was supported by the Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) as "Climate Change Correspondence Program."

  20. Adapting to Health Impacts of Climate Change in the Department of Defense.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chrétien, Jean-Paul

    2016-01-01

    The Department of Defense (DoD) recognizes climate change as a threat to its mission and recently issued policy to implement climate change adaptation measures. However, the DoD has not conducted a comprehensive assessment of health-related climate change effects. To catalyze the needed assessment--a first step toward a comprehensive DoD climate change adaptation plan for health--this article discusses the DoD relevance of 3 selected climate change impacts: heat injuries, vector-borne diseases, and extreme weather that could lead to natural disasters. The author uses these examples to propose a comprehensive approach to planning for health-related climate change impacts in the DoD.

  1. Climate change impact on flood hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Brilly

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate changes have a high impact on river discharges and therefore on floods. There are a few different methods we can use to predict discharge changes in the future. In this paper we used the complex HBV model for the Vipava River and simple correlation between discharge and precipitation data for the Soča River. The discharge prediction is based on the E-OBS precipitation data for three future time periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. Estimated discharges for those three future periods are presented for both rivers. But a special situation occurs at the confluence where the two rivers with rather different catchments unite, and this requires an additional probability analysis.

  2. Toward linking demographic and economic models for impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, C.A.; Meenan, C.D.

    1991-01-01

    One of the objectives of the Yucca Mountain Project, in Southern Nevada, is to evaluate the effects of the development of a high-level nuclear waste repository. As described in the Section 175 Report to the Congress of the US, the temporal scope of this repository project encompasses approximately 70 years and includes four phases: Site characterization and licensing, construction, operation, and closure and decommissioning. If retrieval of the waste were to be required, the temporal scope of the repository project could be extended to approximately 100 years. The study of the potential socioeconomic effects of this project is the foundation for this paper. This paper focuses on the economic and demographic aspects and a possible method to interface the two. First, the authors briefly discuss general socioeconomic modeling theory from a county level view point, as well as methods for the apportionment of county level data to sub-county areas. Next, the authors describe the unique economic and demographic conditions which exist in Nevada at both the state and county levels. Finally, the authors evaluate a possible procedure for analyzing repository effects at a sub-county level; this involves discussion of an interface linking the economic and demographic aspects, which is based on the reconciliation of supply and demand for labor. The authors conclude that the basis for further model development may rely on the interaction of supply and demand to produce change in wage rates. These changes in expected wages should be a justification for allocating economic migrants (who may respond to Yucca Mountain Project development) into various communities

  3. Impacts of Climate Change on Tibetan Lakes: Patterns and Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dehua Mao

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available High-altitude inland-drainage lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP, the earth’s third pole, are very sensitive to climate change. Tibetan lakes are important natural resources with important religious, historical, and cultural significance. However, the spatial patterns and processes controlling the impacts of climate and associated changes on Tibetan lakes are largely unknown. This study used long time series and multi-temporal Landsat imagery to map the patterns of Tibetan lakes and glaciers in 1977, 1990, 2000, and 2014, and further to assess the spatiotemporal changes of lakes and glaciers in 17 TP watersheds between 1977 and 2014. Spatially variable changes in lake and glacier area as well as climatic factors were analyzed. We identified four modes of lake change in response to climate and associated changes. Lake expansion was predominantly attributed to increased precipitation and glacier melting, whereas lake shrinkage was a main consequence of a drier climate or permafrost degradation. These findings shed new light on the impacts of recent environmental changes on Tibetan lakes. They suggest that protecting these high-altitude lakes in the face of further environmental change will require spatially variable policies and management measures.

  4. Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Changes and Impacts (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nghiem, S. V.

    2013-12-01

    The extent of springtime Arctic perennial sea ice, important to preconditioning summer melt and to polar sunrise photochemistry, continues its precipitous reduction in the last decade marked by a record low in 2012, as the Bromine, Ozone, and Mercury Experiment (BROMEX) was conducted around Barrow, Alaska, to investigate impacts of sea ice reduction on photochemical processes, transport, and distribution in the polar environment. In spring 2013, there was further loss of perennial sea ice, as it was not observed in the ocean region adjacent to the Alaskan north coast, where there was a stretch of perennial sea ice in 2012 in the Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea. In contrast to the rapid and extensive loss of sea ice in the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice has a trend of a slight increase in the past three decades. Given the significant variability in time and in space together with uncertainties in satellite observations, the increasing trend of Antarctic sea ice may arguably be considered as having a low confidence level; however, there was no overall reduction of Antarctic sea ice extent anywhere close to the decreasing rate of Arctic sea ice. There exist publications presenting various factors driving changes in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. After a short review of these published factors, new observations and atmospheric, oceanic, hydrological, and geological mechanisms contributed to different behaviors of sea ice changes in the Arctic and Antarctic are presented. The contribution from of hydrologic factors may provide a linkage to and enhance thermal impacts from lower latitudes. While geological factors may affect the sensitivity of sea ice response to climate change, these factors can serve as the long-term memory in the system that should be exploited to improve future projections or predictions of sea ice changes. Furthermore, similarities and differences in chemical impacts of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice changes are discussed. Understanding sea ice changes and

  5. Linking Atmospheric Pollution to Cryospheric Changes over the Third Pole

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, S.; Zhang, Q.; Ji, Z.; Li, Y.; Chen, J.; Zhang, G.; Li, C.; Cong, Z.; Chen, P.; Guo, J.; Huang, J.; Tripathee, L.; Rupakheti, D.; Li, X.; Zhang, Y.; Panday, A. K.; Rupakheti, M.

    2016-12-01

    total glacier melt, up to 350 mm w.e. yr-1. The monitoring network and ongoing studies point to trans-boundary pollution as an increasing stressor for the TP environment, and highlighted the link between atmospheric pollution and cryospheric changes as well as other surface ecosystems over high mountain regions.

  6. Towards Improved Linkage of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in Health: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banwell, Nicola; Rutherford, Shannon; Mackey, Brendan; Chu, Cordia

    2018-01-01

    Climate change and climate-sensitive disasters significantly impact health. Linking Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) is essential for addressing these ever present, complex and increasing risks. Recent calls have been made to build these links in health. However, there is a need to clearly articulate why linking DRR and CCA is important in health. Furthermore, little is known about how DRR and CCA should be linked in health. By extensively examining relevant literature, this review presents the current state of knowledge of linking DRR and CCA in health. This includes the potential for maximising conceptual synergies such as building resilience, and reducing vulnerability and risk. Additionally, technical and operational synergies are identified to link DRR and CCA in health, including: policy, Early Warning Systems, vulnerability and risk assessment, health systems strengthening, infrastructure resilience, disaster preparedness and response, and health impact pathways. Public health actors have a central role in building these links due to their expertise, work functions, and experience in addressing complex health risks. The review concludes with recommendations for future research, including how to better link DRR and CCA in health; and the opportunities, challenges and enablers to build and sustain these links. PMID:29670057

  7. Health Impacts of Climate Change-Induced Subzero Temperature Fires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metallinou, Maria-Monika; Log, Torgrim

    2017-07-20

    General fire risk and the special risk related to cold climate cellulosic drying processes are outlined. Four recent subzero temperatures fires are studied with respect to health impacts: a wooden village fire, a single wood structure fire, a wildland urban interface (WUI) fire and a huge wildland fire. The health impacts range from stress related to loss of jobs, psychological effects of lost possessions, exposure to smoke and heat as well as immediate, or delayed, loss of lives. These four fires resulted in 32 fatalities, 385 persons hospitalized for shorter or longer periods, 104 structures lost and 1015 km² of wildland burned north of, and just south of, the Arctic Circle. It is shown that the combination of subzero temperature dry weather, strong winds, changing agricultural activities and declining snowpack may lead to previously anticipated threats to people and the environment. There are reasons to believe that these fires are a result of the ongoing climate changes. Risk impacts are discussed. Rural districts and/or vulnerable populations seem to be most affected. Training methods to identify and better monitor critical fire risk parameters are suggested to mitigate the health impacts of a possibly increasing number of such fires.

  8. Adapting to the impacts of climate change and variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mortsch, L.; Koshida, G.; Tavares, D.

    1993-05-01

    A workshop was held to encourage awareness of the climate change impact issues and build collaboration among the Great Lakes/St. Lawrence basin (GLSLB) research, resource management, and policy-making community; to identify research opportunities to address the issues of water management, ecosystem health, human health, and land use and management; and to recommend directions and priority areas for future studies to develop an integrated climate impact assessment for the GLSLB. Presentations at the workshop were on topics including an overview of the GLSLB Project, the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand, and impacts on water quality, fisheries, wetlands, agriculture, shoreline management, and human health. Panel sessions were also convened to discuss information requirements that would assist in decision- and policy-making and to address the concept of integration. Working groups on water management, ecosystem health, land use and management, and human health were formed and made recommendations. A synthesis is presented of the reports from and recommendations of the four working groups as well as extended abstracts of the plenary presentations. A separate abstract has been prepared for one of the presentations from this workshop

  9. Burning Fossil Fuels: Impact of Climate Change on Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommer, Alfred

    2016-01-01

    A recent, sophisticated granular analysis of climate change in the United States related to burning fossil fuels indicates a high likelihood of dramatic increases in temperature, wet-bulb temperature, and precipitation, which will dramatically impact the health and well-being of many Americans, particularly the young, the elderly, and the poor and marginalized. Other areas of the world, where they lack the resources to remediate these weather impacts, will be even more greatly affected. Too little attention is being paid to the impending health impact of accumulating greenhouse gases. © The Author(s) 2015.

  10. Climate change and health in the United States of America: impacts, adaptations, and research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jouan, R.; Magaud, M.

    2009-11-01

    After a description of the various impacts of climate change on human health, this report describes and comments the impacts of climate change on health in the USA: impacts of heat waves, of air quality degradation, of extreme climate events, of climate change on infectious diseases and allergies, regional impacts of climate change. In a second part, it describes the strategies of adaptation to the 'climate change and health' issue in the USA: mitigation and adaptation to climate change, adaptation challenges, insufficiently prepared public health system, adaptation to heat waves, adaptation to air quality degradation, adaptation to extreme climate events, adaptation to food- and water-based diseases and to vector-based diseases, examples of proactive adaptation. The last part describes the organisation of research on 'climate change and health' in the USA: nowadays and in the future, role of federal agencies, priority research axes. The 'United States Global Change Research Program' is presented in appendix, as well as the most important research centres (mostly in universities)

  11. A new economic assessment index for the impact of climate change on grain yield

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Wenjie; Chou, Jieming; Feng, Guolin

    2007-03-01

    The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community. This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional “yield impact of meteorological factor (YIMF)” or “yield impact of weather factor” to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore, the concept of the yield impact of climatic change (YICC), which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields (PUAY) of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China, and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.

  12. A New Economic Assessment Index for the Impact of Climate Change on Grain Yield

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community.This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional "yield impact of meteorological factor (YIMF)" or "yield impact of weather factor" to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore,the concept of the yield impact of climatic change (YICC), which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields (PUAY) of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China,and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.

  13. Capacity planning of link restorable optical networks under dynamic change of traffic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Kwok Shing; Cheung, Kwok Wai

    2005-11-01

    Future backbone networks shall require full-survivability and support dynamic changes of traffic demands. The Generalized Survivable Networks (GSN) was proposed to meet these challenges. GSN is fully-survivable under dynamic traffic demand changes, so it offers a practical and guaranteed characterization framework for ASTN / ASON survivable network planning and bandwidth-on-demand resource allocation 4. The basic idea of GSN is to incorporate the non-blocking network concept into the survivable network models. In GSN, each network node must specify its I/O capacity bound which is taken as constraints for any allowable traffic demand matrix. In this paper, we consider the following generic GSN network design problem: Given the I/O bounds of each network node, find a routing scheme (and the corresponding rerouting scheme under failure) and the link capacity assignment (both working and spare) which minimize the cost, such that any traffic matrix consistent with the given I/O bounds can be feasibly routed and it is single-fault tolerant under the link restoration scheme. We first show how the initial, infeasible formal mixed integer programming formulation can be transformed into a more feasible problem using the duality transformation of the linear program. Then we show how the problem can be simplified using the Lagrangian Relaxation approach. Previous work has outlined a two-phase approach for solving this problem where the first phase optimizes the working capacity assignment and the second phase optimizes the spare capacity assignment. In this paper, we present a jointly optimized framework for dimensioning the survivable optical network with the GSN model. Experiment results show that the jointly optimized GSN can bring about on average of 3.8% cost savings when compared with the separate, two-phase approach. Finally, we perform a cost comparison and show that GSN can be deployed with a reasonable cost.

  14. HECS System Changes: Impact on Students

    OpenAIRE

    Gillian Beer; Bruce Chapman

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of changes to Australia’s student financing system on various hypothetical students who choose the Government’s proposed deferred payment options, HECS-HELP and FEE-HELP. The present values of their HECS repayments under the existing (2004) system are compared with the present values of repayments under various alternative systems. These alternative systems relate to increasing the HECS charge by 25 per cent for HECS-HELP students and introducing a fee paid with...

  15. Climate Change and Fruit-Picking Tourism: Impact and Adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this work is to present phenology as a valid indicator and methodology for monitoring and assessing the impact of climate change on plant-based tourist activities. Fruit-picking has become a popular rural tourism activity worldwide. However, fruit maturity dates (FMD have been affected by climate change (CC, which has in turn profoundly affected fruit-picking tourism activities (FPTA. In this paper, phenological data on the FMD for 45 types of plants in 1980–2012, dates for more than 200 fruit-picking festivals, and data on monthly average air temperature in 1980–2013 were used to assess the impact of CC on FPTA by wavelet and correlation analyses. The findings indicated that the study area had been significantly affected by CC. Prevailing temperatures at one or three months prior have a decisive influence on FMD. Among the 11 plants directly related to FPTA, the FMD of four were significantly advanced, while 6-7 were significantly delayed owning to increased temperature. Of the 11 FPTA, only two had realized the impact of CC and had adjusted festival opening dates based on dynamic changes. However, a considerable number of festival activities remained fixed or scheduled on the weekends.

  16. Comparing Forecasts of the Global Impacts of Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendelsohn, R.; Williams, L.

    2004-01-01

    This paper utilizes the predictions of several Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models and the Global Impact Model to create forecasts of the global market impacts from climate change. The forecasts of market impacts in 2100 vary considerably depending on climate scenarios and climate impact sensitivity. The models do concur that tropical nations will be hurt, temperate nations will be barely affected, and high latitude nations will benefit. Although the size of these effects varies a great deal across models, the beneficial and harmful effects are offsetting, so that the net impact on the globe is relatively small in almost all outcomes. Looking only at market impacts, the forecasts suggest that while the global net benefits of abatement are small, the distribution of damages suggests a large equity problem that could be addressed through a compensation program. The large uncertainty surrounding these forecasts further suggests that continued monitoring of both the climate and impacts is worthwhile

  17. Linking Biological Responses of Terrestrial N Eutrophication to the Final Ecosystem Goods and Services Classification System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, M. D.; Clark, C.; Blett, T.

    2015-12-01

    The response of a biological indicator to N deposition can indicate that an ecosystem has surpassed a critical load and is at risk of significant change. The importance of this exceedance is often difficult to digest by policy makers and public audiences if the change is not linked to a familiar ecosystem endpoint. A workshop was held to bring together scientists, resource managers, and policy makers with expertise in ecosystem functioning, critical loads, and economics in an effort to identify the ecosystem services impacted by air pollution. This was completed within the framework of the Final Ecosystem Goods and Services (FEGS) Classification System to produce a product that identified distinct interactions between society and the effects of nitrogen pollution. From each change in a biological indicator, we created multiple ecological production functions to identify the cascading effects of the change to a measureable ecosystem service that a user interacts with either by enjoying, consuming, or appreciating the good or service, or using it as an input in the human economy. This FEGS metric was then linked to a beneficiary group that interacts with the service. Chains detailing the links from the biological indicator to the beneficiary group were created for aquatic and terrestrial acidification and eutrophication at the workshop, and here we present a subset of the workshop results by highlighting for 9 different ecosystems affected by terrestrial eutrophication. A total of 213 chains that linked to 37 unique FEGS metrics and impacted 15 beneficiary groups were identified based on nitrogen deposition mediated changes to biological indicators. The chains within each ecosystem were combined in flow charts to show the complex, overlapping relationships among biological indicators, ecosystem services, and beneficiary groups. Strength of relationship values were calculated for each chain based on support for the link in the scientific literature. We produced the

  18. Climate change links fate of glaciers and an endemic alpine invertebrate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Giersch, J. Joseph; Hauer, F. Richard; Pederson, Gregory T.; Luikart, Gordon; Peterson, Douglas P.; Downs, Christopher C.; Fagre, Daniel B.

    2011-01-01

    Climate warming in the mid- to high-latitudes and high-elevation mountainous regions is occurring more rapidly than anywhere else on Earth, causing extensive loss of glaciers and snowpack. However, little is known about the effects of climate change on alpine stream biota, especially invertebrates. Here, we show a strong linkage between regional climate change and the fundamental niche of a rare aquatic invertebrate—themeltwater stonefly Lednia tumana—endemic toWaterton- Glacier International Peace Park, Canada and USA. L. tumana has been petitioned for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act due to climate-change-induced glacier loss, yet little is known on specifically how climate impacts may threaten this rare species and many other enigmatic alpine aquatic species worldwide. During 14 years of research, we documented that L. tumana inhabits a narrow distribution, restricted to short sections (∼500 m) of cold, alpine streams directly below glaciers, permanent snowfields, and springs. Our simulation models suggest that climate change threatens the potential future distribution of these sensitive habitats and persistence of L. tumana through the loss of glaciers and snowfields. Mountaintop aquatic invertebrates are ideal early warning indicators of climate warming in mountain ecosystems. Research on alpine invertebrates is urgently needed to avoid extinctions and ecosystem change.

  19. Teachers' Perceptions of Their Most Significant Change: Source, Impact, and Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henning, John E.; Rice, Linda J.; Dani, Danielle E.; Weade, Ginger; McKeny, Timothy

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to examine the differences among significant changes in the practice of individual teachers. Seventeen US teachers were interviewed about the most successful change in their teaching career. The differences in teacher change were based primarily on the source and impact of the change. The sources of change were divided…

  20. Social relations: A critical reflection on the notion of social impacts as change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serje, Margarita

    2017-01-01

    This article seeks to reflect upon the dominant conception of social impacts as the change produced by development projects and programs, and the ways in which those affected perceive and experience them. Identifying change may be a necessary but not sufficient step in acknowledging the complexity of social life. Engaging with critical scholarship produced in the fields of both social impact assessment (SIA) and of the social studies of technical/planned interventions, I discuss how the understanding of social impacts as change responds ultimately to a causal–instrumental logic that, in order to make sense of the complexity of social life, tends to reduce it to a series of variables and matrices. I suggest a complementary dialectical approach focusing on social relations. This approach, allows an alternative means of analysing social impacts concerning the way policies and projects reconfigure conditions and possibilities on a societal level. To accomplish this, and in order to go beyond the sequence of potential impacts (or changes) and their generic indicators, I propose a set of analytical questions that highlight how social relations are structured. Besides, on the assumption that development is both a form of governance and a space of contestation, negotiation, and activism, this approach may contribute to further the potential for reflection and mobilisation that the practice of SIA presents. - Highlights: •Change, which is inherent to social life, is insufficient to determine social impacts. •The critique of causal-instrumental logic provides insights to reflect on social impacts. •Social impacts should rather refer to how interventions reconfigure social relations. •The complex, mutually constitutive nature of social phenomena may thus be recognized. •SIA should go beyond change to the understanding of its socio-political significance.

  1. About climate changes impact on the Kazakhstan pastures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lebed', L.V.; Belenkova, Z.S.; Turbacheva, T.P.

    1997-01-01

    Assessment of arid pastures vulnerability situated under direct influence of regional climate change related with greenhouse effect is carried out on Northern Aral Sea area as example. Climate change variants calculated with future prospects for on Kazakhstan territory with use up-to-date models of GFDL (USA), CCCM (Canada) climate theory are used. Number of protective measures are proposed for mitigation of consequences of possible vulnerability of pastures during simultaneous impact of complex of anthropogenic and natural factors. (author)

  2. Climate change impact assessment and adaptation under uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wardekker, J.A.

    2011-01-01

    Expected impacts of climate change are associated with large uncertainties, particularly at the local level. Adaptation scientists, practitioners, and decision-makers will need to find ways to cope with these uncertainties. Several approaches have been suggested as ‘uncertainty-proof’ to some

  3. Assessing climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessing climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for smallholder agricultural systems in Uganda. ... from encroaching on swamps, which is one of the reported adaptation strategies to climate related stresses. Improving productivity of important crops (bananas for southwest, and sweet potatoes and bananas

  4. The economic impact of climate change on food security in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Chuen Khee, Pek; Yet Mee, Lim; Chee Keong, Choong

    2011-01-01

    This study estimates the economic impact of climate change on food security in Malaysia. The contingent valuation technique is employed on 456 randomly selected households in the vicinities of Selangor Darul Ehsan. The study finds that climate change mitigation programmes to ensure food security are important. The public is willing to pay extra rice price in substitution of a rice subsidy reduction impact for the mitigation programmes. More specifically, the study ascertains that households o...

  5. Impacts of Climate Change on Native Landcover: Seeking Future Climatic Refuges

    OpenAIRE

    Zanin, Marina; Mangabeira Albernaz, Ana Luisa

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified l...

  6. Estimating climate change impact on irrigation demand using integrated modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zupanc, Vesna; Pintar, Marina

    2004-01-01

    Water is basic element in agriculture, and along with the soil characteristics, it remains the essential for the growth and evolution of plants. Trends of air temperature and precipitation for Slovenia indicate the increase of the air temperature and reduction of precipitation during the vegetation period, which will have a substantial impact on rural economy in Slovenia. The impact of climate change will be substantial for soil the water balance. Distinctive drought periods in past years had great impact on rural plants in light soils. Climate change will most probably also result in drought in soils which otherwise provide optimal water supply for plants. Water balance in the cross section of the rooting depth is significant for the agriculture. Mathematical models enable smaller amount of measurements in a certain area by means of measurements carried out only in characteristic points serving for verification and calibration of the model. Combination of on site measurements and mathematical modelling proved to be an efficient method for understanding of processes in nature. Climate scenarios made for the estimation of the impact of climate change are based on the general circulation models. A study based on a hundred year set of monthly data showed that in Slovenia temperature would increase at min. by 2.3 o C, and by 5.6 o C at max and by 4.5 o C in average. Valid methodology for the estimate of the impact of climate change applies the model using a basic set of data for a thirty year period (1961-1990) and a changed set of climate input parameters on one hand, and, on the other, a comparison of output results of the model. Estimating climate change impact on irrigation demand for West Slovenia for peaches and nectarines grown on Cambisols and Fluvisols was made using computer model SWAP. SWAP is a precise and power too[ for the estimation of elements of soil water balance at the level of cross section of the monitored and studied profile from the soil surface

  7. Regional Approach for Linking Ecosystem Services and Livelihood Strategies Under Climate Change of Pastoral Communities in the Mongolian Steppe Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ojima, D. S.; Galvin, K.; Togtohyn, C.

    2012-12-01

    Dramatic changes due to climate and land use dynamics in the Mongolian Plateau affecting ecosystem services and agro-pastoral systems in Mongolia. Recently, market forces and development strategies are affecting land and water resources of the pastoral communities which are being further stressed due to climatic changes. Evaluation of pastoral systems, where humans depend on livestock and grassland ecosystem services, have demonstrated the vulnerability of the social-ecological system to climate change. Current social-ecological changes in ecosystem services are affecting land productivity and carrying capacity, land-atmosphere interactions, water resources, and livelihood strategies. The general trend involves greater intensification of resource exploitation at the expense of traditional patterns of extensive range utilization. Thus we expect climate-land use-land cover relationships to be crucially modified by the social-economic forces. The analysis incorporates information about the social-economic transitions taking place in the region which affect land-use, food security, and ecosystem dynamics. The region of study extends from the Mongolian plateau in Mongolia. Our research indicate that sustainability of pastoral systems in the region needs to integrate the impact of climate change on ecosystem services with socio-economic changes shaping the livelihood strategies of pastoral systems in the region. Adaptation strategies which incorporate integrated analysis of landscape management and livelihood strategies provides a framework which links ecosystem services to critical resource assets. Analysis of the available livelihood assets provides insights to the adaptive capacity of various agents in a region or in a community. Sustainable development pathways which enable the development of these adaptive capacity elements will lead to more effective adaptive management strategies for pastoral land use and herder's living standards. Pastoralists will have the

  8. Evaluating the Impact of Business Service Expertise and Business Links on the Performance of SMEs in England

    OpenAIRE

    John Bryson; David Ingram; Peter Daniels

    1999-01-01

    The last decade has seen a growing body of research on information-intensive business service firms. These are companies that supply expertise and knowledge which are considered to add value to the output of their clients. This paper explores the impact of business service expertise provided via business link on the performance, profitability and competitiveness of client companies. The authors use a unique survey of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in England as well as case studies...

  9. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Observed Climate Change Impacts Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessement Report (AR4) Observed Climate Change Impacts Database contains observed responses to climate...

  10. UK adaptation strategy and technical measures: the impacts of climate change on buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanders, C.H.; Phillipson, M.C.

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses the importance of climate change for the UK building stock and reviews the predictions of the United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme 2002 (UKCIP02) scenarios for the future climate that are of relevance to buildings and construction. The possible impacts of these changes on flooding, wind damage, driving rain impact, subsidence and the internal environment of buildings are reviewed and the steps that might be taken to mitigate these impacts discussed. The current response of regulators, standardisation bodies, building owners and the insurance industry to these impacts is examined, and it is shown that each body acts in different ways to different impacts. Some bodies, such as government departments responsible for building regulations and the insurance industry, are taking the possibility of climate change very seriously. However, the uncertainty of future climate predictions, especially as regards wind speed, means that it is not easy to incorporate these issues in formal legislation. The whole culture of standardisation, which is based on well-established data, such as mean climate data over the last 30 years, makes it difficult for British and European Standards, which underpin regulations, to react to the changing climate. (author)

  11. Study on the Impacts of Climate Change on China's Agriculture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, H.; Li, Xiubin [Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, 100101 (China); Fischer, G.; Sun, Laixiang [International Institute for Applied System Analysis IIASA, A-2361 Laxenburg (Austria)

    2004-07-01

    This paper measures the economic impacts of climate change on China's agriculture based on the Ricardian model. By using county-level cross-sectional data on agricultural net revenue, climate, and other economic and geographical data for 1275 agriculture dominated counties, we find that under most climate change scenarios both higher temperature and more precipitation would have an overall positive impact on China's agriculture. However, the impacts vary seasonally and regionally. Autumn effect is the most positive, but spring effect is the most negative. Applying the model to five climate scenarios in the year 2050 shows that the East, the Central part, the South, the northern part of the Northeast, and the Plateau would benefit from climate change, but the Southwest, the Northwest and the southern part of the Northeast may be negatively affected. In the North, most scenarios show that they may benefit from climate change. In summary, all of China would benefit from climate change in most scenarios.

  12. Predicting future US water yield and ecosystem productivity by linking an ecohydrological model to WRF dynamically downscaled climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    S. Sun; Ge Sun; Erika Cohen Mack; Steve McNulty; Peter Caldwell; K. Duan; Y. Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on water yield and ecosystem productivity (i.e., carbon balances) is essential to developing sound watershed restoration plans, and climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. This study links an ecohydrological model (Water Supply and Stress Index, WaSSI) with WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model)...

  13. The Impact of Linking Distinct Achievement Test Scores on the Interpretation of Student Growth in Achievement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Airola, Denise Tobin

    2011-01-01

    Changes to state tests impact the ability of State Education Agencies (SEAs) to monitor change in performance over time. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the Standardized Performance Growth Index (PGIz), a proposed statistical model for measuring change in student and school performance, across transitions in tests. The PGIz is a…

  14. The impacts of changing transport and precipitation on pollutant distributions in a future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Yuanyuan; Fiore, Arlene M.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Gnanadesikan, Anand; Held, Isaac; Chen, Gang; Vecchi, Gabriel; Levy, Hiram

    2011-09-01

    Air pollution (ozone and particulate matter in surface air) is strongly linked to synoptic weather and thus is likely sensitive to climate change. In order to isolate the responses of air pollutant transport and wet removal to a warming climate, we examine a simple carbon monoxide-like (CO) tracer (COt) and a soluble version (SAt), both with the 2001 CO emissions, in simulations with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory chemistry-climate model (AM3) for present (1981-2000) and future (2081-2100) climates. In 2081-2100, projected reductions in lower-tropospheric ventilation and wet deposition exacerbate surface air pollution as evidenced by higher surface COt and SAt concentrations. However, the average horizontal general circulation patterns in 2081-2100 are similar to 1981-2000, so the spatial distribution of COt changes little. Precipitation is an important factor controlling soluble pollutant wet removal, but the total global precipitation change alone does not necessarily indicate the sign of the soluble pollutant response to climate change. Over certain latitudinal bands, however, the annual wet deposition change can be explained mainly by the simulated changes in large-scale (LS) precipitation. In regions such as North America, differences in the seasonality of LS precipitation and tracer burdens contribute to an apparent inconsistency of changes in annual wet deposition versus annual precipitation. As a step toward an ultimate goal of developing a simple index that can be applied to infer changes in soluble pollutants directly from changes in precipitation fields as projected by physical climate models, we explore here a "Diagnosed Precipitation Impact" (DPI) index. This index captures the sign and magnitude (within 50%) of the relative annual mean changes in the global wet deposition of the soluble pollutant. DPI can only be usefully applied in climate models in which LS precipitation dominates wet deposition and horizontal transport patterns change

  15. Climate change and health in British Columbia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ostry, A.; Ogborn, M.; British Columbia Univ., Vancouver, BC; Takaro, T.; Bassil, K.; Allen, D.

    2008-11-01

    This document described the models that scientists use to investigate the links between climate change and health. It then reviewed the evidence for possible impacts of climate change on human health. Most models conceptualize that climate change will affect the health of British Columbians directly through physical and biological pathways, and indirectly through complex socio-economic and environmental pathways. The direct physical and biological pathways will be the easiest to investigate, monitor and attribute to climate change, while the indirect socio-economic pathways will be more complex to investigate but will have the most impact. This document also provided guidance for a program of research and policy directions to better predict future impacts of climate change on health in BC and to enhance adaptation to these changes. The document suggested that basic research is needed to develop a made in BC model and infrastructure for climate change and health investigations. Currently, rural and remote forestry-dependent and Aboriginal communities in mountain pine infected zones are particularly vulnerable. However, it was concluded that although there is strong evidence for shifts in climate in BC, no direct evidence exists on the impact of climate change on human health in BC. refs., tabs., figs

  16. Climate change and potential impacts on bristol bay sockeye salmon populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scientific research has shown that climate change has already caused detectable changes to ecosystems throughout Alaska. As warming is predicted to continue, it is likely to lead to changes in marine and freshwater aquatic ecosystems and impact sockeye salmon populations in Brist...

  17. Impacts of climate change on electricity network business

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auvinen, O.; Martikainen, A.

    2006-01-01

    In this project the impact of climate change on electricity network business was study. The results are based on RCAO climate model scenarios. The climate predictions were composed to the period 2016- 2045. The period 1960-1990 was used as a control period. The climate predictions were composed for precipitation, temperature, hoarfrost, thunder, ground frost and wind. Impacts of the change of the climate variables on electricity network business were estimated from technical and economical points of view. It is expected that climate change will cause more damages than benefits on the electricity network business. The increase of the number of network faults will be the most significant and demanding disadvantage caused by climate change in distribution network. If networks are not improved to be more resistant for faults, then thunder, heavy snow and wind cause more damages especially to overhead lines in medium voltage network. Increasing precipitation and decreasing amount of ground frost weaken the strength of soil. The construction work will be more difficult with the present vehicles because wet and unfrozen ground can not carry heavy vehicles. As a consequence of increasing temperature, the demand of heating energy will decrease and the demand of cooling energy will increase. This is significant for the electricity consumption and the peak load of temperature-dependent electricity users. (orig.)

  18. Impacts of Rainfall Variability and Expected Rainfall Changes on Cost-Effective Adaptation of Water Systems to Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pol, van der T.D.; Ierland, van E.C.; Gabbert, S.G.M.; Weikard, H.P.; Hendrix, E.M.T.

    2015-01-01

    Stormwater drainage and other water systems are vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff and need to be adapted to climate change. This paper studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change

  19. Uncertainty in climate change impacts on low flows

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Booij, Martijn J.; Huisjes, Martijn; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert; Demuth, Siegfried; Gustard, Alan; Planos, Eduardo; Scatena, Fred; Servat, Eric

    2006-01-01

    It is crucial for low flow management that information about the impacts of climate change on low flows and the uncertainties therein becomes available. This has been achieved by using information from different Regional Climate Models for different emission scenarios to assess the uncertainty in

  20. The impact of climate change on the BRICS economies: The case of insurance demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranger, N.; Surminski, S.

    2012-04-01

    Session ERE5.1 Climate change impact on economical and industrial activities The impact of climate change on the BRICS economies: The case of insurance demand. Over the past decade, growth in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) economies has been a key driver of global economic growth. Current forecasts suggest that these markets will continue to be areas of significant growth for a large number of industries. We consider how climate change may influence these trends in the period to 2030, a time horizon that is long in terms of strategic planning in industry, but relatively short for climate change analysis, where the impacts are predicted to be most significant beyond around 2050. Based on current evidence, we expect climate change to affect the BRICS economies in four main ways: 1. The impact of physical climatic changes on the productivity of climate-sensitive economic activity, the local environment, human health and wellbeing, and damages from extreme weather. 2. Changing patterns of investment in climate risk management and adaptation 3. Changing patterns of investments in areas affected by greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy, 4. The impacts of the above globally, including on international trade, growth, investment, policy, migration and commodity prices, and their impacts on the BRICS. We review the evidence on the impacts of climate change in the BRICS and then apply this to one particular industry sector: non-life insurance. We propose five potential pathways through which climate change could influence insurance demand: economic growth; willingness to pay for insurance; public policy and regulation; the insurability of natural catastrophe risks; and new opportunities associated with adaptation and greenhouse gas mitigation. We conclude that, with the exception of public policy and regulation, the influence of climate change on insurance demand to 2030 is likely to be small when compared with the expected growth due to rising

  1. Climate change: impact on honey bee populations and diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Conte, Y; Navajas, M

    2008-08-01

    The European honey bee, Apis mellifera, is the most economically valuable pollinator of agricultural crops worldwide. Bees are also crucial in maintaining biodiversity by pollinating numerous plant species whose fertilisation requires an obligatory pollinator. Apis mellifera is a species that has shown great adaptive potential, as it is found almost everywhere in the world and in highly diverse climates. In a context of climate change, the variability of the honey bee's life-history traits as regards temperature and the environment shows that the species possesses such plasticity and genetic variability that this could give rise to the selection of development cycles suited to new environmental conditions. Although we do not know the precise impact of potential environmental changes on honey bees as a result of climate change, there is a large body of data at our disposal indicating that environmental changes have a direct influence on honey bee development. In this article, the authors examine the potential impact of climate change on honey bee behaviour, physiology and distribution, as well as on the evolution of the honey bee's interaction with diseases. Conservation measures will be needed to prevent the loss of this rich genetic diversity of honey bees and to preserve ecotypes that are so valuable for world biodiversity.

  2. Climate change impacts utilizing regional models for agriculture, hydrology and natural ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kafatos, M.; Asrar, G. R.; El-Askary, H. M.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kim, J.; Kim, S.; Medvigy, D.; Prasad, A. K.; Smith, E.; Stack, D. H.; Tremback, C.; Walko, R. L.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts the entire Earth but with crucial and often catastrophic impacts at local and regional levels. Extreme phenomena such as fires, dust storms, droughts and other natural hazards present immediate risks and challenges. Such phenomena will become more extreme as climate change and anthropogenic activities accelerate in the future. We describe a major project funded by NIFA (Grant # 2011-67004-30224), under the joint NSF-DOE-USDA Earth System Models (EaSM) program, to investigate the impacts of climate variability and change on the agricultural and natural (i.e. rangeland) ecosystems in the Southwest USA using a combination of historical and present observations together with climate, and ecosystem models, both in hind-cast and forecast modes. The applicability of the methodology to other regions is relevant (for similar geographic regions as well as other parts of the world with different agriculture and ecosystems) and should advance the state of knowledge for regional impacts of climate change. A combination of multi-model global climate projections from the decadal predictability simulations, to downscale dynamically these projections using three regional climate models, combined with remote sensing MODIS and other data, in order to obtain high-resolution climate data that can be used with hydrological and ecosystem models for impacts analysis, is described in this presentation. Such analysis is needed to assess the future risks and potential impacts of projected changes on these natural and managed ecosystems. The results from our analysis can be used by scientists to assist extended communities to determine agricultural coping strategies, and is, therefore, of interest to wide communities of stakeholders. In future work we will be including surface hydrologic modeling and water resources, extend modeling to higher resolutions and include significantly more crops and geographical regions with different weather and climate conditions

  3. Assessing Land Use Change and Its Impact on Ecosystem Services in Northern Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunsanee Arunyawat

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Ecosystem services are highly vulnerable to a number of impacts due to the complex effects of human use of natural resources and subsequent land use change. Assessment of the impact of change in land use with respect to ecosystem services is necessary in order to implement appropriate land uses that enhance ecosystem services. This study analysed the impact of change in land use on ecosystem services using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST model to map and quantify a set of ecosystem services, namely sediment retention, water yield, carbon stock, and habitat quality, in northern Thailand, which has experienced substantial policy induced land use change. The study also assessed the changes in land use from 1989 to 2013 and their impact on overall ecosystem services using GIS. Increased rubber plantation cultivation and built-up areas resulting in reduced forest cover were the major changes found in land use in the area. The results of the study show a general decrease in ecosystem services for the study period in the watershed, in particular, a negative impact on ecosystem services was observed in agricultural areas. The study findings on spatial and temporal distribution of ecosystem services can help guide the development of appropriate land use options to enhance ecosystem services.

  4. Climate change impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems in Sri Lanka: a review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeevan Dananjaya Kottawa-Arachchi

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The climate change impacts are felt by all facets and sectors of ecosystems, covering flora, fauna and environment. Sri Lanka is considered as a vulnerable, small island country that is under serious threat from climate change impacts. The most profound impacts of climate change in Sri Lanka will be on agriculture and food security, water and coastal resources, biodiversity changes, and human health. Sri Lanka's biodiversity is significantly important both on a regional and global scale as it has the highest species density for flowering plants, amphibians, reptiles, and mammals. Sri Lanka's varied ecosystems provide many services that are of significant economic value and play a crucial role in providing goods and ecosystem services. The subsequent sections featuring specific aspects of biodiversity in forests, freshwater wetlands, coastal and marine systems and agricultural systems, provide greater detail on the ecosystem services and bio-resources. Habitat loss and fragmentation, invasive alien species, deforestation and forest degradation, development projects, environmental pollutions and climate change (global warming are the major threats to the biodiversity of the country. Climate change impacts on environment lead to a reduction in the distribution and abundance of species, especially endemics, which may even result in their global extinction. The introduction of various policies and guidelines in relation to environment is a good sign for conservation of ecosystems and biodiversity. The government of Sri Lanka has been implementing various environmental projects aiming at reducing deforestation and degradation of ecosystems. Policies and measures already developed under such initiatives will no doubt preserve natural habitats for plant and animal species. However, being a developing country with many economic challenges, the funds and expertise available for monitoring climate change impacts and biodiversity conservation are not

  5. Estimating Rain Attenuation In Satellite Communication Links

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, R. M.

    1991-01-01

    Attenuation computed with help of statistical model and meteorological data. NASA Lewis Research Center Satellite Link Attenuation Model (SLAM) program QuickBASIC computer program evaluating static and dynamic statistical assessment of impact of rain attenuation on communication link established between Earth terminal and geosynchronous satellite. Application in specification, design, and assessment of satellite communication links for any terminal location in continental United States. Written in Microsoft QuickBASIC.

  6. Combined Impacts of Medium Term Socio-Economic Changes and Climate Change on Water Resources in a Managed Mediterranean Catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anastassi Stefanova

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate projections agree on a dryer and warmer future for the Mediterranean. Consequently, the region is likely to face serious problems regarding water availability and quality in the future. We investigated potential climate change impacts, alone (for three scenario periods and in combination with four socio-economic scenarios (for the near future on water resources in a Mediterranean catchment, whose economy relies on irrigated agriculture and tourism. For that, the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM was applied to the drainage area of the Mar Menor coastal lagoon, using a set of 15 climate scenarios and different land use maps and management settings. We assessed the long-term average seasonal and annual changes in generated runoff, groundwater recharge and actual evapotranspiration in the catchment, as well as on water inflow and nutrients input to the lagoon. The projected average annual changes in precipitation are small for the first scenario period, and so are the simulated impacts on all investigated components, on average. The negative trend of potential climate change impacts on water resources (i.e., decrease in all analyzed components becomes pronounced in the second and third scenario periods. The applied socio-economic scenarios intensify, reduce or even reverse the climate-induced impacts, depending on the assumed land use and management changes.

  7. 78 FR 78796 - Supplemental Applications Proposing Labeling Changes for Approved Drugs and Biological Products...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-27

    ... FDA's review of the change. The proposed rule published without a reference or a link to the... comments received, go to http://www.regulations.gov and insert the docket number(s), found in brackets in... rulemaking. The proposed rule published without reference or a link to the accompanying Regulatory Impact...

  8. Impact of cell culture process changes on endogenous retrovirus expression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brorson, Kurt; De Wit, Christina; Hamilton, Elizabeth; Mustafa, Mehnaz; Swann, Patrick G; Kiss, Robert; Taticek, Ron; Polastri, Gian; Stein, Kathryn E; Xu, Yuan

    2002-11-05

    Cell culture process changes (e.g., changes in scale, medium formulation, operational conditions) and cell line changes are common during the development life cycle of a therapeutic protein. To ensure that the impact of such process changes on product quality and safety is minimal, it is standard practice to compare critical product quality and safety attributes before and after the changes. One potential concern introduced by cell culture process improvements is the possibility of increased endogenous retrovirus expression to a level above the clearance capability of the subsequent purification process. To address this, retrovirus expression was measured in scaled down and full production scaled Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cell cultures of four monoclonal antibodies and one recombinant protein before and after process changes. Two highly sensitive, quantitative (Q)-PCR-based assays were used to measure endogenous retroviruses. It is shown that cell culture process changes that primarily alter media components, nutrient feed volume, seed density, cell bank source (i.e., master cell bank vs. working cell bank), and vial size, or culture scale, singly or in combination, do not impact the rate of retrovirus expression to an extent greater than the variability of the Q-PCR assays (0.2-0.5 log(10)). Cell culture changes that significantly alter the metabolic state of the cells and/or rates of protein expression (e.g., pH and temperature shifts, NaButyrate addition) measurably impact the rate of retrovirus synthesis (up to 2 log(10)). The greatest degree of variation in endogenous retrovirus expression was observed between individual cell lines (up to 3 log(10)). These data support the practice of measuring endogenous retrovirus output for each new cell line introduced into manufacturing or after process changes that significantly increase product-specific productivity or alter the metabolic state, but suggest that reassessment of retrovirus expression after other

  9. Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Forestry Development in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Forestry and forest ecosystem are highly sensitive to climate change.At present,studies about the responses of forests to climate change in China are more focused on physical influences of climate change.This paper firstly divided the key impact factors of climate change on forest and forestry developing into direct factors and indirect factors,and then made an assessment on climate change affecting future forestry development from the aspect of forest products and ecological services.On this basis,the adap...

  10. Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fred Fokko Hattermann

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim of our study is to quantify the impacts of climate change on hydrology in the large river basins in Germany (Rhine, Elbe, Danube, Weser and Ems and thereby giving the range of impact uncertainty created by the most recent regional climate projections. The study shows mainly results for the A1B SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario scenario by comparing the reference period 1981–2010 and the scenario periods 2031–2060 and 2061–2090 and using climate projections of a combination of 4 Global Climate Models (GCMs and 12 Regional Climate Models (RCMs as climate driver. The outcome is compared against impacts driven by a more recent RCP (Representative Emission Pathways scenario by using data of a statistical RCM. The results indicate that more robust conclusions can be drawn for some river basins, especially the Rhine and Danube basins, while diversity of results leads to higher uncertainty in the other river basins. The results also show that hydrology is very sensitive to changes in climate and effects of a general increase in precipitation can even be over-compensated by an increase in evapotranspiration. The decrease of runoff in late summer shown in most results can be an indicator for more pronounced droughts under scenario conditions.

  11. Ocean Biological Pump Sensitivities and Implications for Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanou, Anastasia

    2013-01-01

    The ocean is one of the principal reservoirs of CO2, a greenhouse gas, and therefore plays a crucial role in regulating Earth's climate. Currently, the ocean sequesters about a third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, mitigating the human impact on climate. At the same time, the deeper ocean represents the largest carbon pool in the Earth System and processes that describe the transfer of carbon from the surface of the ocean to depth are intimately linked to the effectiveness of carbon sequestration.The ocean biological pump (OBP), which involves several biogeochemical processes, is a major pathway for transfer of carbon from the surface mixed layer into the ocean interior. About 75 of the carbon vertical gradient is due to the carbon pump with only 25 attributed to the solubility pump. However, the relative importance and role of the two pumps is poorly constrained. OBP is further divided to the organic carbon pump (soft tissue pump) and the carbonate pump, with the former exporting about 10 times more carbon than the latter through processes like remineralization.Major uncertainties about OBP, and hence in the carbon uptake and sequestration, stem from uncertainties in processes involved in OBP such as particulate organicinorganic carbon sinkingsettling, remineralization, microbial degradation of DOC and uptakegrowth rate changes of the ocean biology. The deep ocean is a major sink of atmospheric CO2 in scales of hundreds to thousands of years, but how the export efficiency (i.e. the fraction of total carbon fixation at the surface that is transported at depth) is affected by climate change remains largely undetermined. These processes affect the ocean chemistry (alkalinity, pH, DIC, particulate and dissolved organic carbon) as well as the ecology (biodiversity, functional groups and their interactions) in the ocean. It is important to have a rigorous, quantitative understanding of the uncertainties involved in the observational measurements, the models and the

  12. Changes in freshwater mussel communities linked to legacy pollution in the Lower Delaware River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blakeslee, Carrie J.; Silldorff, Erik L.; Galbraith, Heather S.

    2018-01-01

    Freshwater mussels are among the most-imperiled organisms worldwide, although they provide a variety of important functions in the streams and rivers they inhabit. Among Atlantic-slope rivers, the Delaware River is known for its freshwater mussel diversity and biomass; however, limited data are available on the freshwater mussel fauna in the lower, non-tidal portion of the river. This section of the Delaware River has experienced decades of water-quality degradation from both industrial and municipal sources, primarily as a function of one of its major tributaries, the Lehigh River. We completed semi-quantitative snorkel surveys in 53.5 of the 121 km of the river to document mussel community composition and the continued impacts from pollution (particularly inputs from the Lehigh River) on mussel fauna. We detected changes in mussel catch per unit effort (CPUE) below the confluence of the Lehigh River, with significant declines in the dominant species Elliptio complanata (Eastern Elliptio) as we moved downstream from its confluence—CPUE dropped from 179 to 21 mussels/h. Patterns in mussel distribution around the Lehigh confluence matched chemical signatures of Lehigh water input. Specifically, Eastern Elliptio CPUE declined more quickly moving downstream on the Pennsylvania bank, where Lehigh River water input was more concentrated compared to the New Jersey bank. A definitive causal link remains to be established between the Lehigh River and the dramatic shifts in mussel community composition, warranting continued investigation as it relates to mussel conservation and restoration in the basin.

  13. The impacts of climate change in Aquitaine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Treut, Herve; Baldi, Isabelle; Bonneton, Philippe; Budzinski, Helene; Caill-Milly, Nathalie; D'Amico, Frank; Dupuy, Alain; Etcheber, Henri; Grousset, Francis; Kremer, Antoine; Ollat, Nathalie; Pereau, Jean-Christophe; Prouzet, Patrick; Salles, Denis; Sautour, Benoit; Villenave, Eric

    2013-01-01

    This article presents a book which addresses the impacts of climate change in the Aquitaine region by 2030-2050 in order to prepare the adaptation of the main economic sectors. Several fields are addressed: agriculture and wine-growing, forestry, estuaries, coasts and sea resources. The book examines two aspects of climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions: mitigation and adaptation. Two scenarios are studied: a global temperature increase of 2 degrees, and a global temperature increase between 4 and 5 degrees. As examples of this study, this article gives an overview of these issues of mitigation and adaptation in four domains: forests, wine-growing, air quality, and health

  14. A synthesis of convergent reflections, tensions and silences in linking gender and global environmental change research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iniesta-Arandia, Irene; Ravera, Federica; Buechler, Stephanie; Díaz-Reviriego, Isabel; Fernández-Giménez, María E; Reed, Maureen G; Thompson-Hall, Mary; Wilmer, Hailey; Aregu, Lemlem; Cohen, Philippa; Djoudi, Houria; Lawless, Sarah; Martín-López, Berta; Smucker, Thomas; Villamor, Grace B; Wangui, Elizabeth Edna

    2016-12-01

    This synthesis article joins the authors of the special issue "Gender perspectives in resilience, vulnerability and adaptation to global environmental change" in a common reflective dialogue about the main contributions of their papers. In sum, here we reflect on links between gender and feminist approaches to research in adaptation and resilience in global environmental change (GEC). The main theoretical contributions of this special issue are threefold: emphasizing the relevance of power relations in feminist political ecology, bringing the livelihood and intersectionality approaches into GEC, and linking resilience theories and critical feminist research. Empirical insights on key debates in GEC studies are also highlighted from the nine cases analysed, from Europe, the Americas, Asia, Africa and the Pacific. Further, the special issue also contributes to broaden the gender approach in adaptation to GEC by incorporating research sites in the Global North alongside sites from the Global South. This paper examines and compares the main approaches adopted (e.g. qualitative or mixed methods) and the methodological challenges that derive from intersectional perspectives. Finally, key messages for policy agendas and further research are drawn from the common reflection.

  15. Assessing climate change impacts on water balance in the Mount

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A statistical downscaling known for producing station-scale climate information from GCM output was preferred to evaluate the impacts of climate change within the Mount Makiling forest watershed, Philippines. The lumped hydrologic BROOK90 model was utilized for the water balance assessment of climate change ...

  16. Robust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sultan, B; Guan, K; Lobell, D B; Kouressy, M; Biasutti, M; Piani, C; Hammer, G L; McLean, G

    2014-01-01

    West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate hazards and better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields are urgently needed. Here we provide an assessment of near-term climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa and account for uncertainties both in future climate scenarios and in crop models. Towards this goal, we use simulations of nine bias-corrected CMIP5 climate models and two crop models (SARRA-H and APSIM) to evaluate the robustness of projected crop yield impacts in this area. In broad agreement with the full CMIP5 ensemble, our subset of bias-corrected climate models projects a mean warming of +2.8 °C in the decades of 2031–2060 compared to a baseline of 1961–1990 and a robust change in rainfall in West Africa with less rain in the Western part of the Sahel (Senegal, South-West Mali) and more rain in Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, South-West Niger). Projected rainfall deficits are concentrated in early monsoon season in the Western part of the Sahel while positive rainfall changes are found in late monsoon season all over the Sahel, suggesting a shift in the seasonality of the monsoon. In response to such climate change, but without accounting for direct crop responses to CO 2 , mean crop yield decreases by about 16–20% and year-to-year variability increases in the Western part of the Sahel, while the eastern domain sees much milder impacts. Such differences in climate and impacts projections between the Western and Eastern parts of the Sahel are highly consistent across the climate and crop models used in this study. We investigate the robustness of impacts for different choices of cultivars, nutrient treatments, and crop responses to CO 2 . Adverse impacts on mean yield and yield variability are lowest for modern cultivars, as their short and nearly fixed growth cycle appears to be more resilient to the seasonality shift of the monsoon, thus suggesting shorter season varieties could be considered a

  17. Robust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sultan, B.; Guan, K.; Kouressy, M.; Biasutti, M.; Piani, C.; Hammer, G. L.; McLean, G.; Lobell, D. B.

    2014-10-01

    West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate hazards and better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields are urgently needed. Here we provide an assessment of near-term climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa and account for uncertainties both in future climate scenarios and in crop models. Towards this goal, we use simulations of nine bias-corrected CMIP5 climate models and two crop models (SARRA-H and APSIM) to evaluate the robustness of projected crop yield impacts in this area. In broad agreement with the full CMIP5 ensemble, our subset of bias-corrected climate models projects a mean warming of +2.8 °C in the decades of 2031-2060 compared to a baseline of 1961-1990 and a robust change in rainfall in West Africa with less rain in the Western part of the Sahel (Senegal, South-West Mali) and more rain in Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, South-West Niger). Projected rainfall deficits are concentrated in early monsoon season in the Western part of the Sahel while positive rainfall changes are found in late monsoon season all over the Sahel, suggesting a shift in the seasonality of the monsoon. In response to such climate change, but without accounting for direct crop responses to CO2, mean crop yield decreases by about 16-20% and year-to-year variability increases in the Western part of the Sahel, while the eastern domain sees much milder impacts. Such differences in climate and impacts projections between the Western and Eastern parts of the Sahel are highly consistent across the climate and crop models used in this study. We investigate the robustness of impacts for different choices of cultivars, nutrient treatments, and crop responses to CO2. Adverse impacts on mean yield and yield variability are lowest for modern cultivars, as their short and nearly fixed growth cycle appears to be more resilient to the seasonality shift of the monsoon, thus suggesting shorter season varieties could be considered a potential

  18. Linking slope stability and climate change: the Nordfjord region, western Norway, case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasskog, K.; Waldmann, N.; Ariztegui, D.; Simpson, G.; Støren, E.; Chapron, E.; Nesje, A.

    2009-12-01

    Valleys, lakes and fjords are spectacular features of the Norwegian landscape and their sedimentary record recall past climatic, environmental and glacio-isostatic changes since the late glacial. A high resolution multi-proxy study is being performed on three lakes in western Norway combining different geophysical methods and sediment coring with the aim of reconstructing paleoclimate and to investigate how the frequency of hazardous events in this area has changed through time. A very high resolution reflection seismic profiling revealed a series of mass-wasting deposits. These events, which have also been studied in radiocarbon-dated cores, suggest a changing impact of slope instability on lake sedimentation since the late glacial. A specially tailored physically-based mathematical model allowed a numerical simulation of one of these mass wasting events and related tsunami, which occurred during a devastating rock avalanche in 1936 killing 74 persons. The outcome has been further validated against historical, marine and terrestrial information, providing a model that can be applied to comparable basins at various temporal and geographical scales. Detailed sedimentological and geochemical studies of selected cores allows characterizing the sedimentary record and to disentangle each mass wasting event. This combination of seismic, sedimentary and geophysical data permits to extend the record of mass wasting events beyond historical times. The geophysical and coring data retrieved from these lakes is a unique trace of paleo-slope stability generated by isostatic rebound and climate change, thus providing a continuous archive of slope stability beyond the historical record. The results of this study provide valuable information about the impact of climate change on slope stability and source-to-sink processes.

  19. Projecting Poverty at the Household Scale to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Poor People

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallegatte, S.; Rozenberg, J.

    2015-12-01

    This paper quantifies the potential impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030 and 2050, in 92 countries covering 90% of the developing world population. It accounts for the deep uncertainties that characterize future socio-economic evolutions and the lack of data regarding the condition and livelihood of poor people. It also considers many impacts of climate change, another source of uncertainty. We use a micro-simulation model based on household surveys and explore a wide range of uncertainties on future structural change, productivity growth or demographic changes. This results, for each country, in the creation of several hundred scenarios for future income growth and income distribution. We then explore the resulting space of possible futures and use scenario discovery techniques to identify the main drivers of inequalities and poverty reduction. We find that redistribution and structural change are powerful drivers of poverty and inequality reduction, except in low-income countries. In the poorest countries in Africa, reducing poverty cannot rely on redistribution but requires low population growth and productivity growth in agriculture. Once we have explored the space of possible outcomes for poverty and inequalities, we choose two representative scenarios of the best and worst cases and model the impacts of climate change in each of these two scenarios. Climate change impacts are modeled through 4 channels. First, climate change has an impact on labor productivity growth for people who work outside because of higher temperatures. Second, climate change has an impact on human capital because of more severe stunting in some places. Third, climate change has an impact on physical capital via more frequent natural disasters. Fourth, climate change has an impact on consumption because of changes in food prices. Impacts are very heterogeneous across countries and are mostly concentrated in African and South-East Asian countries. For high radiative forcing (RCP8

  20. Accounting for time-dependent changes in GHG emissions in the Ribeiro appellation (NW Spain): Are land use changes an important driver?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villanueva-Rey, Pedro; Vázquez-Rowe, Ian; Otero, Marta; Moreira, María Teresa; Feijoo, Gumersindo

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The environmental profile of a wine appellation was assessed for a 20 year period. • LUCs and LCA methods were linked to assess the GHG emissions in the appellation. • Winegrowing operations and land use were monitored up to the gate of the winery. • Different trends were found depending on the period assessed. • Demographic and social changes triggered changes in the carbon stocks. - Abstract: Land use changes (LUCs) constitute a crucial source of environmental impact in production systems, which are mostly associated with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This circumstance is especially important for the agricultural sector, since these imply an important proportion of the total GHG emissions occurring worldwide. Wine and grape production is a key sector in Spain, representing the largest surface area at European level. In the past decades, important wine related LUCs have been observed due to changes in farming methods/type, number of Denominations of Origin, and the establishment of larger wineries that have enhanced exports. The current study presents a temporally based Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) study of the Ribeiro appellation in NW Spain, in which the gradual changes in the land use, as well as the technological improvements are analyzed in detail in order to understand how the environmental profile of this specific wine producing area has shifted in the past two decades (i.e., from 1990 to 2009). On the one hand, phenomena such as afforestation and agricultural intensification are analyzed throughout the appellation to estimate the impact due to GHG emissions linked to LUCs, based on IPCC standards. On the other hand, trends linked to technological improvements, operational changes, such as changes in the use and management of plant protection agents or fertilizers or the change in the energy sources for machinery on the vineyards, were assessed in detail

  1. Climate Change, Air Pollution, and the Economics of Health Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reilly, J.; Yang, T.; Paltsev, S.; Wang, C.; Prinn, R.; Sarofim, M.

    2003-12-01

    Climate change and air pollution are intricately linked. The distinction between greenhouse substances and other air pollutants is resolved at least for the time being in the context of international negotiations on climate policy through the identification of CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6 and the per- and hydro- fluorocarbons as substances targeted for control. Many of the traditional air pollutant emissions including for example CO, NMVOCs, NOx, SO2, aerosols, and NH3 also directly or indirectly affect the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Among both sets of gases are precursors of and contributors to pollutants such as tropopospheric ozone, itself a strong greenhouse gas, particulate matter, and other pollutants that affect human health. Fossil fuel combustion, production, or transportation is a significant source for many of these substances. Climate policy can thus affect traditional air pollution or air pollution policy can affect climate. Health effects of acute or chronic exposure to air pollution include increased asthma, lung cancer, heart disease and bronchitis among others. These, in turn, redirect resources in the economy toward medical expenditures or result in lost labor or non-labor time with consequent effects on economic activity, itself producing a potential feedback on emissions levels. Study of these effects ultimately requires a fully coupled earth system model. Toward that end we develop an approach for introducing air pollution health impacts into the Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a component of the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) a coupled economics-chemistry-atmosphere-ocean-terrestrial biosphere model of earth systems including an air pollution model resolving the urban scale. This preliminary examination allows us to consider how climate policy affects air pollution and consequent health effects, and to study the potential impacts of air pollution policy on climate. The novel contribution is the effort to

  2. Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment in the United States and Implications for Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.

    2012-01-01

    As an integral part of the National Climate Assessment (NCA), technical assessment reports for 13 regions in the U.S. that describe the scientific rationale to support climate change impacts within the purview of these regions, and provide adaptation or mitigation measures in response to these impacts. These technical assessments focus on climate change impacts on sectors that are important environmental, biophysical, and social and economic aspects of sustainability within the U.S.: Climate change science, Ecosystems and biodiversity, Water resources, Human health, Energy supply and use, Water/energy/land use, Transportation, Urban/infrastructure/vulnerability, Agriculture, Impacts of climate change on tribal/indigenous and native lands and resources, Forestry, Land use/land cover change, Rural communities development, and Impacts on biogeochemical cycles, with implications for ecosystems and biodiversity. There is a critical and timely need for the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies in response to climate change by the policy and decision making communities, to insure resiliency and sustainability of the built environment in the future.

  3. Climate change impacts on U.S. coastal and marine ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scavia, Donald; Field, John C.; Boesch, Donald F.; Buddemeier, Robert W.; Burkett, Virginia; Cayan, Daniel R.; Fogarty, Michael; Harwell, Mark A.; Howarth, Robert W.; Mason, Curt; Reed, Denise J.; Royer, Thomas C.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Titus, James G.

    2002-01-01

    Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO2. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO2 levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction

  4. The Øresund Link

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jacob Steen

    "Øresundsbron" is the combined bridge and tunnel connecting Denmark and Sweden adjacent to Copenhagen. Øresundsbron was built and is operated by a consortium owned jointly by the Danish and Swedish states. The Link was inaugurated 1 July 2000 by the Queen of Denmark and the King of Sweden. The 16......-km link across the Sound could potentially impact the water exchange between the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, and the dredging activities during construction were a threat to the local marine environment. The public interest in the environmental issues together with a pro-active environmental policy...... of hydrodynamic modelling, on line monitoring and access to all environmental information through a GIS based information system. The public attitude towards the project in general and the environmental impact in particular shifted from a very sceptical one at the beginning of the project to a very positive one...

  5. Linking extreme interannual changes in prey availability to foraging behaviour and breeding investment in a marine predator, the macaroni penguin.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cat Horswill

    Full Text Available Understanding the mechanisms that link prey availability to predator behaviour and population change is central to projecting how a species may respond to future environmental pressures. We documented the behavioural responses and breeding investment of macaroni penguins Eudyptes chrysolophus across five breeding seasons where local prey density changed by five-fold; from very low to highly abundant. When prey availability was low, foraging trips were significantly longer and extended overnight. Birds also foraged farther from the colony, potentially in order to reach more distant foraging grounds and allow for increased search times. These extended foraging trips were also linked to a marked decrease in fledgling weights, most likely associated with reduced rates of provisioning. Furthermore, by comparing our results with previous work on this population, it appears that lowered first-year survival rates associated, at least partially, with fledging masses were also evident for this cohort. This study integrates a unique set of prey density, predator behaviour and predator breeding investment data to highlight a possible behavioural mechanism linking perturbations in prey availability to population demography.

  6. Linking extreme interannual changes in prey availability to foraging behaviour and breeding investment in a marine predator, the macaroni penguin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horswill, Cat; Trathan, Philip N; Ratcliffe, Norman

    2017-01-01

    Understanding the mechanisms that link prey availability to predator behaviour and population change is central to projecting how a species may respond to future environmental pressures. We documented the behavioural responses and breeding investment of macaroni penguins Eudyptes chrysolophus across five breeding seasons where local prey density changed by five-fold; from very low to highly abundant. When prey availability was low, foraging trips were significantly longer and extended overnight. Birds also foraged farther from the colony, potentially in order to reach more distant foraging grounds and allow for increased search times. These extended foraging trips were also linked to a marked decrease in fledgling weights, most likely associated with reduced rates of provisioning. Furthermore, by comparing our results with previous work on this population, it appears that lowered first-year survival rates associated, at least partially, with fledging masses were also evident for this cohort. This study integrates a unique set of prey density, predator behaviour and predator breeding investment data to highlight a possible behavioural mechanism linking perturbations in prey availability to population demography.

  7. Narrative impact: How stories change minds | Hoeken | Stellenbosch ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Stellenbosch Papers in Linguistics Plus. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 53 (2017) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register. Narrative impact: How stories change minds.

  8. Quantifying climate change impacts on runoff of zoonotic pathogens from land

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterk, Ankie; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria; Stergiadi, Maria; de Nijs, Ton; Schijven, Jack

    2013-04-01

    Several studies have shown a correlation between rainfall and waterborne disease outbreaks. One of the mechanisms whereby rainfall may cause outbreaks is through an increase in runoff of animal faeces from fields to surface waters. Faeces originating from wildlife, domestic animals or manure-fertilized fields, is considered an important source of zoonotic pathogens to which people may be exposed by water recreation or drinking-water consumption. Climate changes affect runoff because of increasing winter precipitation and more extreme precipitation events, as well as changes in evaporation. Furthermore, drier summers are leading to longer periods of high soil moisture deficits, increasing the hydrophobicity of soil and consequently changing infiltration capacities. A conceptual model is designed to describe the impacts of climate changes on the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, which are both directly and indirectly affecting pathogen loads in the environment and subsequent public health risks. One of the major outcomes was the lack of quantitative data and limited qualitative analyses of impacts of climate changes on pathogen runoff. Quantifying the processes by which micro-organisms are transported from fields to waters is important to be able to estimate such impacts to enable targeted implementation of effective intervention measures. A quantitative model using Mathematica software will be developed to estimate concentrations of pathogens originating from overland flow during runoff events. Different input sources will be included by applying different land-use scenarios, including point source faecal pollution from dairy cows and geese and diffuse source pollution by fertilization. Zoonotic pathogens, i.e. Cryptosporidium and Campylobacter, were selected based on transport properties, faecal loads and disease burden. Transport and survival rates of these pathogens are determined including effects of changes in precipitation but also temperature induced

  9. Impact of the structural changes on the nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ziakova, M.

    2005-01-01

    In this presentation author deals with impact of the structural changes (privatization of the Slovenske Elektrarne, a.s.) and new Atomic law (541/2004 Coll. Laws) on the nuclear safety in the Slovak Republic.

  10. Climate Change Impacts on Peak Electricity Consumption: US vs. Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auffhammer, M.

    2016-12-01

    It has been suggested that climate change impacts on the electric sector will account for the majority of global economic damages by the end of the current century and beyond. This finding is at odds with the relatively modest increase in climate driven impacts on consumption. Comprehensive high frequency load balancing authority level data have not been used previously to parameterize the relationship between electric demand and temperature for any major economy. Using statistical models we analyze multi-year data from load balancing authorities in the United States of America and the European Union, which are responsible for more than 90% of the electricity delivered to residential, industrial, commercial and agricultural customers. We couple the estimated response functions between total daily consumption and daily peak load with an ensemble of downscaled GCMs from the CMIP5 archive to simulate climate change driven impacts on both outcomes. We show moderate and highly spatially heterogeneous changes in consumption. The results of our peak load simulations, however, suggest significant changes in the intensity and frequency of peak events throughout the United States and Europe. As the electricity grid is built to endure maximum load, which usually occurs on the hottest day of the year, our findings have significant implications for the construction of costly peak generating and transmission capacity.

  11. Human Impacts on the Hydrologic Cycle: Comparing Global Climate Change and Local Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, I. M.; Maxwell, R. M.

    2010-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is significantly altering the hydrologic cycle at global and regional scales, with potentially devastating impacts on water resources. Recent studies demonstrate that hydrologic response to climate change will depend on local-scale feedbacks between groundwater, surface water, and land surface processes. These studies suggest that local water management practices that alter the quantity and distribution of water in the terrestrial system—e.g., groundwater pumping and irrigation—may also feed back across the hydrologic cycle, with impacts on land-atmosphere fluxes and thus weather and climate. Here we use an integrated hydrologic model to compare the impacts of large-scale climate change and local water management practices on water and energy budgets at local and watershed scales. We consider three climate scenarios (hot, hot+wet, and hot+dry) and three management scenarios (pumping only, irrigation only, and pumping+irrigation). Results demonstrate that impacts of local water management on basin-integrated groundwater storage, evapotranspiration, and stream discharge are comparable to those of changing climate conditions. However, impacts of climate change are shown to have a smaller magnitude and greater spatial extent, while impacts of pumping and irrigation are shown to have a greater magnitude but are local to areas where pumping and irrigation occur. These results have important implications regarding the scales of human impacts on both water resources and climate and the sustainability of water resources.

  12. Health impacts of climate change in Vanuatu: an assessment and adaptation action plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne; McIver, Lachlan

    2013-01-30

    Climate change is one of the greatest global challenges and Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable due to, among other factors, their geography, demography and level of economic development. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used as a basis for the consideration of the potential health impacts of changes in the climate on the population of Vanuatu, to assess the risks and propose a range of potential adaptive responses appropriate for Vanuatu. The HIA process involved the participation of a broad range of stakeholders including expert sector representatives in the areas of bio-physical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food, who provided informed comment and input into the understanding of the potential health impacts and development of adaptation strategies. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed with the application of a qualitative process that considered both the consequences and the likelihood of each of the potential health impacts occurring. Potential adaptation strategies and actions were developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by the various sectors in Vanuatu to contribute to future decision making processes associated with the health impacts of climate change.

  13. Impacts of climate change and variability on European agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Orlandini, Simone; Nejedlik, Pavol; Eitzinger, Josef

    2008-01-01

    susceptible to meteorological hazards. These hazards can modify environment-genotype interactions, which can affect the quality of production. The COST 734 Action (Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on European Agriculture), launched in 2006, is composed of 28 signature countries and is funded...... by the European Commission. The main objective of the Action is the evaluation of possible impacts arising from climate change and variability on agriculture and the assessment of critical thresholds for various European areas. The Action will concentrate on four different tasks: agroclimatic indices...... and simulation models, including review and assessment of tools used to relate climate and agricultural processes; evaluation of the current trends of agroclimatic indices and model outputs, including remote sensing; developing and assessing future regional and local scenarios of agroclimatic conditions...

  14. Climatic change impacts, adaptation and associated costs in France. Intermediate report. June 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    This report aims at promoting the awareness of sector-based and land challenges of climate change in terms of impacts. It gives a wide overview of the present knowledge on sector-based vulnerabilities, and allows the identification of some paths for the alleviation of these vulnerabilities. After a discussion of objectives and context, of methodological choices (data, modalities to take impacts and adaptation into account, impact assessment approach) thematic woks are reported. They are dealing with health (population vulnerability to climate change with the example of 2006 heat wave), agriculture, forest and water, energy, tourism, natural risks and insurance, territories. For each of these topics, the reports discusses vulnerability aspects, the present knowledge about the impact of climate change, and identifies the core problems as well as studies which remain to be performed

  15. Climate change impacts in Northern Canada: Assessing our current knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gill, M.J.; Eamer, J. [Environment Canada, Environmental Conservation Branch, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Munier, A.; Ogden, A. [Yukon College, Northern Climate ExChange, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Duerden, F. [Ryerson University, School of Applied Geography, Toronto, ON (Canada); Hik, D. [Alberta Univ., Dept. of Biological Sciences, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Fox, S.; Riedlinger, D.; Thorpe, N. [GeoNorth Limited, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Johnson, I.; Jensen, M. [Legend Seekers Anthropological Research, Whitehorse, YT (Canada)

    2001-07-01

    A research project by the Northern Climate ExChange at Yukon College, undertaken to bring together into one document all relevant information that will help facilitate the identification of priorities for climate change research, monitoring, technological development and policy development in Canada's North, is described. In addition to the report, project deliverables also include a database of climate change information sources and a database of northern climate change contacts. The review includes scientific, local and Traditional Knowledge sources relating to climate change about each of seventeen natural and human systems (e.g. boreal forests, community health, mining, etc.), synthesized into a table for each system, with projected environmental changes crossed in matrix format with system components. Each cross-relationship was given a ranking; supporting information was included, based on the current state of knowledge of that relationship. In general, current information concerning northern systems, predicted climate changes and the impacts of those changes on northern systems is poor. However, much information does exist and the gap analysis revealed a number of general patterns relating to this information. Clearly, more research is required throughout northern Canada, but in particular, in the eastern Arctic, to provide a greater understanding of the implications of climate changes across the North, and to aid in the development of finer-scale, regional circulation models resulting in better predictive capacity of climate change and its impacts on northern areas.

  16. Integrating Mechanisms for Insulin Resistance: Common Threads and Missing Links

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuel, Varman T.; Shulman, Gerald I.

    2012-01-01

    Insulin resistance is a complex metabolic disorder that defies a single etiological pathway. Accumulation of ectopic lipid metabolites, activation of the unfolded protein response (UPR) pathway and innate immune pathways have all been implicated in the pathogenesis of insulin resistance. However, these pathways are also closely linked to changes in fatty acid uptake, lipogenesis, and energy expenditure that can impact ectopic lipid deposition. Ultimately, accumulation of specific lipid metabolites (diacylglycerols and/or ceramides) in liver and skeletal muscle, may be a common pathway leading to impaired insulin signaling and insulin resistance. PMID:22385956

  17. Climate Change and the New Normal for Cardiorespiratory Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim K Takaro

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is already affecting the cardiorespiratory health of populations around the world, and these impacts are expected to increase. The present overview serves as a primer for respirologists who are concerned about how these profound environmental changes may affect their patients. The authors consider recent peer-reviewed literature with a focus on climate interactions with air pollution. They do not discuss in detail cardiorespiratory health effects for which the potential link to climate change is poorly understood. For example, pneumonia and influenza, which affect >500 million people per year, are not addressed, although clear seasonal variation suggests climate-related effects. Additionally, large global health impacts in low-resource countries, including migration precipitated by environmental change, are omitted. The major cardiorespiratory health impacts addressed are due to heat, air pollution and wildfires, shifts in allergens and infectious diseases along with respiratory impacts from flooding. Personal and societal choices about carbon use and fossil energy infrastructure should be informed by their impacts on health, and respirologists can play an important role in this discussion.

  18. Climate Change Potential Impacts on the Built Environment and Possible Adaptation Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.

    2014-01-01

    The built environment consists of components that exist at a range of scales from small (e.g., houses, shopping malls) to large (e.g., transportation networks) to highly modified landscapes such as cities. Thus, the impacts of climate change on the built environment may have a multitude of effects on humans and the land. The impact of climate change may be exacerbated by the interaction of different events that singly may be minor, but together may have a synergistic set of impacts that are significant. Also, mechanisms may exist wherein the built environment, particularly in the form of cities, may affect weather and the climate on local and regional scales. Hence, a city may be able to cope with prolonged heat waves, but if this is combined with severe drought, the overall result could be significant or even catastrophic, as accelerating demand for energy to cooling taxes water supplies needed both for energy supply and municipal water needs. This presentation surveys potential climate change impacts on the built environment from the perspective of the National Climate Assessment, and explores adaptation measures that can be employed to mitigate these impacts.

  19. Impact assessment and coastal climate change adaptation in a local transdisciplinary perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Broge, N. H.; Knudsen, Per

    , private and public institutions, and the local communities provides: understanding of the immediate and potential future challenges; appreciation of different stakeholder motives, business agendas, legislative constraints etc., and common focus on how to cost-efficiently adapt to and manage impacts......From an applied point of view, the authors present and discuss inter- and transdisciplinary approaches to assess and deal with natural coastal hazards and climate change impacts. The construction of a shared working platform for knowledge integration across levels of governance and between research...... of climate change. The platform is dynamically updated with additional data and knowledge, e.g. from climate change evidence, or, by provision of updated regional models of future sea level rise. In order to integrate natural hazards and impact development over time, models on hydrology, geology...

  20. Biodiversity as a solution to mitigate climate change impacts on the functioning of forest ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hisano, Masumi; Searle, Eric B; Chen, Han Y H

    2018-02-01

    Forest ecosystems are critical to mitigating greenhouse gas emissions through carbon sequestration. However, climate change has affected forest ecosystem functioning in both negative and positive ways, and has led to shifts in species/functional diversity and losses in plant species diversity which may impair the positive effects of diversity on ecosystem functioning. Biodiversity may mitigate climate change impacts on (I) biodiversity itself, as more-diverse systems could be more resilient to climate change impacts, and (II) ecosystem functioning through the positive relationship between diversity and ecosystem functioning. By surveying the literature, we examined how climate change has affected forest ecosystem functioning and plant diversity. Based on the biodiversity effects on ecosystem functioning (B→EF), we specifically address the potential for biodiversity to mitigate climate change impacts on forest ecosystem functioning. For this purpose, we formulate a concept whereby biodiversity may reduce the negative impacts or enhance the positive impacts of climate change on ecosystem functioning. Further B→EF studies on climate change in natural forests are encouraged to elucidate how biodiversity might influence ecosystem functioning. This may be achieved through the detailed scrutiny of large spatial/long temporal scale data sets, such as long-term forest inventories. Forest management strategies based on B→EF have strong potential for augmenting the effectiveness of the roles of forests in the mitigation of climate change impacts on ecosystem functioning. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  1. Managing climate change impacts on tourism: Mitigating and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate is considered to be a tourist resource, and it is widely acknowledged that the nature and distribution of tourist activities are affected by climatic elements. Changing world climatic regimes are therefore likely to have long term impacts on tourism activities, resources and distribution patterns. South African tourism will ...

  2. Assessing climate change impact on complementarity between solar and hydro power in areas affected by glacier shrinkage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diah Puspitarini, Handriyanti; François, Baptiste; Zoccatelli, Davide; Brown, Casey; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Zaramella, Mattia; Borga, Marco

    2017-04-01

    basis. Climate response functions, developed in a 2D climate change space (change in mean temperature and precipitation), are built from multiple hydro-climatic scenarios obtained by perturbing the observed weather time series with the change factor method, and considering given glacier storage states. Climate experiments are further used for assessing these change factors from different emission scenarios, climate models and future prediction lead times. Their positioning on the Climate Response Function allows discussing the risk/opportunities pertaining to changes in VRE penetration in the future. Results show i) the large impact of glacier shrinkage on the complementarity between solar and RoR energy sources and ii) that the impact is decreasing with time, with the main alterations to be expected in the coming 30 years. Brown, C., Ghile, Y., Laverty, M., Li, K., (2012). Decision scaling: Linking bottom up vulnerability analysis with climate projections in the water sector. Water Resour Res 48. 515 doi:10.1029/2011WR011212

  3. Climate variability: Possible changes with climate change and impacts on crop yields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mearns, L.O.

    1991-01-01

    A pilot study was carried out of the sensitivity of the CERES wheat model, a deterministic crop-climate model, to changes in the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation. The study was designed to determine the effect of changed temperature variance on the mean and variance of the simulated yields, to compare the effect with the effect of mean temperature changes, and to determine the interacting effects of changes in mean and variance of temperature. The CERES model was applied to 29 cropping years (1952-1980), using three different soil types and two different management practices (fully irrigated and dryland). The coefficients of variation of the yields for irrigated and dryland conditions are plotted against variance change. It was found that in both management systems, the yield response is usually greater to increases rather than decreases in variance. The combined effect of mean and variance temperature changes are most striking under irrigated conditions, with a dramatic decrease in yield variability in the high mean climate change scenario with decreased temperature variance. This suggests that the variability decrease might mitigate the effect of a mean increase in temperature. This result is not found with the dryland case, where decreased temperature variability has little impact on yield variability. 12 refs., 4 figs

  4. Climate change impact on economical and industrial activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parey, Sylvie; Bernardara, Pietro; Donat, Markus G.

    2010-05-01

    Climate change is underway and even if mitigation measures are successfully implemented, societies will have to adapt to new climatic conditions in the near future and further. This session had been proposed to gather different studies dedicated to the climate change impact on some human activities, and discuss the possible ways of adaptation. Climate change is often presented in terms of global mean temperature evolutions, but what is important for adaptation concerns the local evolutions, and rather of the variability and extremes than of the mean of the involved meteorological parameters. In the session, studies and applications will be presented, covering different economical and industrial activities, such as energy production, (re-) insurance and risk assessment, water management or tourism.

  5. Enhancing Resilience to Water-Related Impacts of Climate Change ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Enhancing Resilience to Water-Related Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda's ... technologies (ICTs) can be used to help communities address water stress. ... This work will support the Uganda Ministry of Water and Environment's efforts to ...

  6. Persistent, Long-term Cerebral White Matter Changes after Sports-Related Repetitive Head Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazarian, Jeffrey J.; Zhu, Tong; Zhong, Jianhui; Janigro, Damir; Rozen, Eric; Roberts, Andrew; Javien, Hannah; Merchant-Borna, Kian; Abar, Beau; Blackman, Eric G.

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Repetitive head impacts (RHI) sustained in contact sports are thought to be necessary for the long-term development of chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE). Our objectives were to: 1) characterize the magnitude and persistence of RHI-induced white matter (WM) changes; 2) determine their relationship to kinematic measures of RHI; and 3) explore their clinical relevance. Methods Prospective, observational study of 10 Division III college football players and 5 non-athlete controls during the 2011-12 season. All subjects underwent diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), physiologic, cognitive, and balance testing at pre-season (Time 1), post-season (Time 2), and after 6-months of no-contact rest (Time 3). Head impact measures were recorded using helmet-mounted accelerometers. The percentage of whole-brain WM voxels with significant changes in fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD) from Time 1 to 2, and Time 1 to 3 was determined for each subject and correlated to head impacts and clinical measures. Results Total head impacts for the season ranged from 431–1,850. No athlete suffered a clinically evident concussion. Compared to controls, athletes experienced greater changes in FA and MD from Time 1 to 2 as well as Time 1 to 3; most differences at Time 2 persisted to Time 3. Among athletes, the percentage of voxels with decreased FA from Time 1 to 2 was positively correlated with several helmet impact measures. The persistence of WM changes from Time 1 to 3 was also associated with changes in serum ApoA1 and S100B autoantibodies. WM changes were not consistently associated with cognition or balance. Conclusions A single football season of RHIs without clinically-evident concussion resulted in WM changes that correlated with multiple helmet impact measures and persisted following 6 months of no-contact rest. This lack of WM recovery could potentially contribute to cumulative WM changes with subsequent RHI exposures. PMID:24740265

  7. Climate change adaptation impact cost assessment in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    This document reports the works of an inter-departmental group and of sector-based and transverse groups which aimed at assessing the impacts of climate change. After a first contribution about the assessment methodology, the works of sector-based groups and transverse groups are reported. These groups are dealing with agriculture, forest, infrastructures and built environment, tourism, energy, health, water, natural risks (and insurance and adaptation to climatic change in metropolitan France), biodiversity and land. For each of them, challenges, assessment approaches, first results and perspectives are discussed

  8. Projected