WorldWideScience

Sample records for change impact assessments

  1. Assessing Climate Change Impacts: Agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Bosello, Francesco; Zhang, Jian

    2005-01-01

    The economy-wide implications of climate change on agricultural sectors in 2050 are estimated using a static computable general equilibrium model. Peculiar to this exercise is the coupling of the economic model with a climatic model forecasting temperature increase in the relevant year and with a crop-growth model estimating climate change impact on cereal productivity. The main results of the study point out on the one hand the limited influence of climate change on world food supply and wel...

  2. Integrated Climate Change Impacts Assessment in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Meyer, R.; Anderson, M.; Bromirski, P. D.

    2014-12-01

    This paper summarizes lessons learned from an ongoing series of climate change assessments for California, conducted by the scientific community and State and local agencies. A series of three Assessments have considered vulnerability and adaptation issues for both managed and natural systems. California's vulnerability is many faceted, arising because of an exceptionally drought prone climate, open coast and large estuary exposure to sea level rise, sensitive ecosystems and complex human footprint and economy. Key elements of the assessments have been a common set of climate and sea-level rise scenarios, based upon IPCC GCM simulations. Regionalized and localized output from GCM projections was provided to research teams investigating water supply, agriculture, coastal resources, ecosystem services, forestry, public health, and energy demand and hydropower generation. The assessment results are helping to investigate the broad range of uncertainty that is inherent in climate projections, and users are becoming better equipped to process an envelope of potential climate and impacts. Some projections suggest that without changes in California's present fresh-water delivery system, serious water shortages would take place, but that technical solutions are possible. Under a warmer climate, wildfire vulnerability is heightened markedly in some areas--estimated increases in burned area by the end of the 21st Century exceed 100% of the historical area burned in much of the forested areas of Northern California Along California coast and estuaries, projected rise in mean sea level will accelerate flooding occurrences, prompting the need for better education and preparedness. Many policymakers and agency personnel in California are factoring in results from the assessments and recognize the need for a sustained assessment process. An ongoing challenge, of course, is to achieve more engagement with a broader community of decision makers, and notably with the private sector.

  3. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J. [eds.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  4. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower

    OpenAIRE

    Aanund Killingtveit; Byman Hamududu

    2012-01-01

    Currently, hydropower accounts for close to 16% of the world’s total power supply and is the world’s most dominant (86%) source of renewable electrical energy. The key resource for hydropower generation is runoff, which is dependent on precipitation. The future global climate is uncertain and thus poses some risk for the hydropower generation sector. The crucial question and challenge then is what will be the impact of climate change on global hydropower generation and what are the resulting ...

  5. Climate Change in Environmental Impact Assessment of Renewable Energy Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2012-01-01

    Many renewable energy projects are subject to EIA. However a question that surfaces is what use an impact assessment is when the project is ‘good for the environment’? One of the current topics receiving much attention in impact assessment is climate change and how this factor is integrated in...... impact assessments. This warrants the question: How do we assess the climate change related impacts of a project that inherently has a positive effect on climate? This paper is based on a document study of EIA reports from Denmark. The results show that climate change is included in most of the EIA...... reports reviewed, and that only climate change mitigation is in focus while adaptation is absent. Also the results point to focus on positive impacts, while the indirect negative impacts are less apparent. This leads to a discussion of the results in the light of the purpose of EIA....

  6. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Gerrit; Stone, Dáithí

    2016-05-01

    Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts related to atmospheric and ocean temperature can be confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. In contrast, evidence connecting changes in precipitation and their respective impacts to human influence is still weak. Moreover, anthropogenic climate change has been a major influence for approximately three-quarters of the impacts observed on continental scales. Hence the effects of anthropogenic emissions can now be discerned not only globally, but also at more regional and local scales for a variety of natural and human systems.

  7. Climate Change Impact Assessments for International Market Systems (CLIMARK)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, J. A.; Andresen, J.; Black, J.; Bujdoso, G.; Chmielewski, F.; Kirschke, D.; Kurlus, R.; Liszewska, M.; Loveridge, S.; Niedzwiedz, T.; Nizalov, D.; Rothwell, N.; Tan, P.; Ustrnul, Z.; von Witzke, H.; Zavalloni, C.; Zhao, J.; Zhong, S.

    2012-12-01

    The vast majority of climate change impact assessments evaluate how local or regional systems and processes may be affected by a future climate. Alternative strategies that extend beyond the local or regional scale are needed when assessing the potential impacts of climate change on international market systems, including agricultural commodities. These industries have multiple production regions that are distributed worldwide and are likely to be differentially impacted by climate change. Furthermore, for many industries and market systems, especially those with long-term climate-dependent investments, temporal dynamics need to be incorporated into the assessment process, including changing patterns of international trade, consumption and production, and evolving adaptation strategies by industry stakeholder groups. A framework for conducting climate change assessments for international market systems, developed as part of the CLIMARK (Climate Change and International Markets) project is outlined, and progress toward applying the framework for an impact assessment for the international tart cherry industry is described. The tart cherry industry was selected for analysis in part because tart cherries are a perennial crop requiring long-term investments by the producer. Components of the project include the preparation of fine resolution climate scenarios, evaluation of phenological models for diverse production regions, the development of a yield model for tart cherry production, new methods for incorporating individual decision making and adaptation options into impact assessments, and modification of international trade models for use in impact studies. Innovative aspects of the project include linkages between model components and evaluation of the mega-uncertainty surrounding the assessment outcomes. Incorporation of spatial and temporal dynamics provides a more comprehensive evaluation of climate change impacts and an assessment product of potentially greater

  8. Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Forestry Development in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Forestry and forest ecosystem are highly sensitive to climate change.At present,studies about the responses of forests to climate change in China are more focused on physical influences of climate change.This paper firstly divided the key impact factors of climate change on forest and forestry developing into direct factors and indirect factors,and then made an assessment on climate change affecting future forestry development from the aspect of forest products and ecological services.On this basis,the adap...

  9. Assessing the likely impacts of climate change on infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: In 2005, the Victorian Government contracted CSIRO, Maunsell Australia and Phillips Fox to undertake an overview assessment of the likely impacts of climate change on the State's infrastructure, establish the categories of infrastructure most at risk and outline opportunities for adaptation responses. The Government released the assessment in May 2007. Climate change poses a significant risk to infrastructure and its owners, managers and long-term operators. The work was undertaken on the basis that it should not be assumed that future climate and its impacts will simply be an extension of what has been experienced in the past. Major infrastructure items have long useful life spans (20-100 years). A bridge built today is expected to still be in use in tens, if not hundreds, of years. This means that recognition of likely climate change impacts and appropriate adaptation measures should occur now. Recognition of the risks associated with climate change is a valuable first step towards better planning of new infrastructure investments and reducing potential damage to existing infrastructure.lnfrastructure types examined were water, power, telecommunications, transport and buildings. The climate change projections used in this report are based on CSIRO climate modelling, supported by findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climatic and other variables considered were temperature, rainfall, available moisture, humidity, winds, fire-weather frequency and intensity, solar radiation levels and sea-level rise. For each climate change variable identified, we described a worst-case impact for low and high climate change projections for the years 2030 and 2070. The assessment was made on the basis of 'business as usual' with no adaptation responses to climate change. The report also details the current governance structures associated with each infrastructure type. Overall, the report assessed the likely impact of climate change on

  10. Methodologies for assessing socio-economic impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Much of the studies on climate change impacts have focused on physical and biological impacts, yet a knowledge of the social and economic impacts of climate change is likely to have a greater impact on the public and on policymakers. A conventional assessment of the impacts of climate change begins with scenarios of future climate, commonly derived from global climate models translated to a regional scale. Estimates of biophysical conditions provided by such scenarios provide a basis for analyses of human impacts, usually considered sector by sector. The scenario approach, although having considerable merit and appeal, has some noteworthy limitations. It encourages consideration of only a small set of scenarios, requires bold assumptions to be made about adjustments in human systems, provides little direct analysis of sensitivities of human social and economic systems to climate perturbations, and usually invokes the assumption that all factors other than climate are stable and have no synergistic effects on human systems. Conventional studies concentrate on average climate, yet climate is inherently variable. A common response to this situation is to propose further development of climate models, but this is not a sufficient or necessary condition for good and useful assessments of impacts on human activities. Different approaches to socioeconomic impact analysis are needed, and approaches should be considered that include identification of sensitivities in a social or ecological system, identification of critical threshold levels or critical speeds of change in variables, and exploration of alternative methodologies such as process studies, spatial and temporal analogues, and socio-economic systems modelling. 5 refs., 3 figs

  11. Uncertainty assessment tool for climate change impact indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Juliane; Keup-Thiel, Elke; Jacob, Daniela; Rechid, Diana; Lückenkötter, Johannes; Juckes, Martin

    2015-04-01

    A major difficulty in the study of climate change impact indicators is dealing with the numerous sources of uncertainties of climate and non-climate data . Its assessment, however, is needed to communicate to users the degree of certainty of climate change impact indicators. This communication of uncertainty is an important component of the FP7 project "Climate Information Portal for Copernicus" (CLIPC). CLIPC is developing a portal to provide a central point of access for authoritative scientific information on climate change. In this project the Climate Service Center 2.0 is in charge of the development of a tool to assess the uncertainty of climate change impact indicators. The calculation of climate change impact indicators will include climate data from satellite and in-situ observations, climate models and re-analyses, and non-climate data. There is a lack of a systematic classification of uncertainties arising from the whole range of climate change impact indicators. We develop a framework that intends to clarify the potential sources of uncertainty of a given indicator and provides - if possible - solutions how to quantify the uncertainties. To structure the sources of uncertainties of climate change impact indicators, we first classify uncertainties along a 'cascade of uncertainty' (Reyer 2013). Our cascade consists of three levels which correspond to the CLIPC meta-classification of impact indicators: Tier-1 indicators are intended to give information on the climate system. Tier-2 indicators attempt to quantify the impacts of climate change on biophysical systems (i.e. flood risks). Tier-3 indicators primarily aim at providing information on the socio-economic systems affected by climate change. At each level, the potential sources of uncertainty of the input data sets and its processing will be discussed. Reference: Reyer, C. (2013): The cascade of uncertainty in modeling forest ecosystem responses to environmental change and the challenge of sustainable

  12. Assessing the impacts of climatic change on mountain water resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beniston, Martin; Stoffel, Markus

    2014-09-15

    As the evidence for human induced climate change becomes clearer, so too does the realization that its effects will have impacts on numerous environmental and socio-economic systems. Mountains are recognized as very sensitive physical environments with populations whose histories and current social positions often strain their capacity to accommodate intense and rapid changes to their resource base. It is thus essential to assess the impacts of a changing climate, focusing on the quantity of water originating in mountain regions, particularly where snow and ice melt represent a large streamflow component as well as a local resource in terms of freshwater supply, hydropower generation, or irrigation. Increasing evidence of glacier retreat, permafrost degradation and reduced mountain snowpack has been observed in many regions, thereby suggesting that climate change may seriously affect streamflow regimes. These changes could in turn threaten the availability of water resources for many environmental and economic systems, and exacerbate a range of natural hazards that would compound these impacts. As a consequence, socio-economic structures of downstream living populations would be also impacted, calling for better preparedness and strategies to avoid conflicts of interest between water-dependent economic actors. This paper is thus an introduction to the Special Issue of this journal dedicated to the European Union Seventh Framework Program (EU-FP7) project ACQWA (Assessing Climate Impacts on the Quantity and Quality of WAter), a major European network of scientists that was coordinated by the University of Geneva from 2008 to 2014. The goal of ACQWA has been to address a number of these issues and propose a range of solutions for adaptation to change and to help improve water governance in regions where quantity, seasonality, and perhaps quality of water may substantially change in coming decades. PMID:24360916

  13. Assessment of the Health Impacts of Climate Change in Kiribati

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lachlan McIver

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Kiribati—a low-lying, resource-poor Pacific atoll nation—is one of the most vulnerable countries in the World to the impacts of climate change, including the likely detrimental effects on human health. We describe the preparation of a climate change and health adaptation plan for Kiribati carried out by the World Health Organization and the Kiribati Ministry of Health and Medical Services, including an assessment of risks to health, sources of vulnerability and suggestions for highest priority adaptation responses. This paper identifies advantages and disadvantages in the process that was followed, lays out a future direction of climate change and health adaptation work in Kiribati, and proposes lessons that may be applicable to other small, developing island nations as they prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change on health.

  14. Climate Change Impact Assessment of Food- and Waterborne Diseases

    OpenAIRE

    Jan C. Semenza; Herbst, Susanne; Rechenburg, Andrea; Jonathan E. Suk; Höser, Christoph; Schreiber, Christiane; Kistemann, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    The PubMed and ScienceDirect bibliographic databases were searched for the period of 1998–2009 to evaluate the impact of climatic and environmental determinants on food- and waterborne diseases. The authors assessed 1,642 short and concise sentences (key facts), which were extracted from 722 relevant articles and stored in a climate change knowledge base. Key facts pertaining to temperature, precipitation, water, and food for 6 selected pathogens were scrutinized, evaluated, and compiled acco...

  15. Parametric assessment of climate change impacts of automotive material substitution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geyer, Roland

    2008-09-15

    Quantifying the net climate change impact of automotive material substitution is not a trivial task. It requires the assessment of the mass reduction potential of automotive materials, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from their production and recycling, and their impact on GHG emissions from vehicle use. The model presented in this paper is based on life cycle assessment (LCA) and completely parameterized, i.e., its computational structure is separated from the required input data, which is not traditionally done in LCAs. The parameterization increases scientific rigor and transparency of the assessment methodology, facilitates sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the results, and also makes it possible to compare different studies and explain their disparities. The state of the art of the modeling methodology is reviewed and advanced. Assessment of the GHG emission impacts of material recycling through consequential system expansion shows that our understanding of this issue is still incomplete. This is a critical knowledge gap since a case study shows thatfor materials such as aluminum, the GHG emission impacts of material production and recycling are both of the same size as the use phase savings from vehicle mass reduction. PMID:18853818

  16. Assessing the impact of climate change on extreme sea levels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Full text: Assessments of the impact of climate change on extreme sea levels along parts of the Victorian coast will be presented. The method involves identifying a large population of storm surge events in tide gauge records along the stretch of coastline of interest and modelling each event with a hydrodynamic model. Conditions under future climate regimes are considered by perturbing the atmospheric boundary conditions of the model in accordance with wind speed projections from climate models. Extreme value analysis is applied to the output of the hydrodynamic model to generate probabilities and return periods for storm surge heights. A Monte-Carlo approach is used to combine these heights with tide heights. Finally estimates of future mean sea level rise from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are added in. Initial work on the possible impact of changes in extreme sea levels on the risk of inundation of low lying coastal land will also be presented

  17. Climate Change Impact Assessment of Food- and Waterborne Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenza, Jan C; Herbst, Susanne; Rechenburg, Andrea; Suk, Jonathan E; Höser, Christoph; Schreiber, Christiane; Kistemann, Thomas

    2012-04-01

    The PubMed and ScienceDirect bibliographic databases were searched for the period of 1998-2009 to evaluate the impact of climatic and environmental determinants on food- and waterborne diseases. The authors assessed 1,642 short and concise sentences (key facts), which were extracted from 722 relevant articles and stored in a climate change knowledge base. Key facts pertaining to temperature, precipitation, water, and food for 6 selected pathogens were scrutinized, evaluated, and compiled according to exposure pathways. These key facts (corresponding to approximately 50,000 words) were mapped to 275 terminology terms identified in the literature, which generated 6,341 connections. These relationships were plotted on semantic network maps to examine the interconnections between variables. The risk of campylobacteriosis is associated with mean weekly temperatures, although this link is shown more strongly in the literature relating to salmonellosis. Irregular and severe rain events are associated with Cryptosporidium sp. outbreaks, while noncholera Vibrio sp. displays increased growth rates in coastal waters during hot summers. In contrast, for Norovirus and Listeria sp. the association with climatic variables was relatively weak, but much stronger for food determinants. Electronic data mining to assess the impact of climate change on food- and waterborne diseases assured a methodical appraisal of the field. This climate change knowledge base can support national climate change vulnerability, impact, and adaptation assessments and facilitate the management of future threats from infectious diseases. In the light of diminishing resources for public health this approach can help balance different climate change adaptation options. PMID:24808720

  18. Health impact assessment of climate change in Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global climate change (GCC) may have serious and irreversible impacts. Improved methods are needed to predict and quantify health impacts, so that appropriate risk management strategies can be focused on vulnerable areas. The disability-adjusted life year (DALY) is proposed as an effective tool in environmental health impact assessment (HIA). The DALY accounts for years of life lost to premature death and/or morbidity. Both the DALY and the determinants-of-health approach are applied to HIA of GCC in Bangladesh. Based on historical data, a major storm event may result in approximately 290 DALY per 1000 population, including both deaths and injuries, compared to a current all-cause rate of about 280 per 1000 in the region. A more precise result would require a large input of data; however, this level of analysis may be sufficient to rank risks, and to motivate and target risk management efforts

  19. Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandryk, M.; Reidsma, P.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2012-01-01

    Towards 2050, climate change is one of the possible drivers that will change the farming landscape, but market, policy and technological development may be at least equally important. In the last decade, many studies assessed impacts of climate change and specific adaptation strategies. However, ada

  20. A Health Impact Assessment Framework for Assessing Vulnerability and Adaptation Planning for Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Helen Brown; Jeffery Spickett; Dianne Katscherian

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a detailed description of an approach designed to investigate the application of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework to assess the potential health impacts of climate change. A HIA framework has been combined with key climate change terminology and concepts. The fundamental premise of this framework is an understanding of the interactions between people, the environment and climate. The diversity and complexity of these interactions can hinder much needed action o...

  1. Regional Risk Assessment for climate change impacts on coastal aquifers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyalomhe, F; Rizzi, J; Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2015-12-15

    Coastal aquifers have been identified as particularly vulnerable to impacts on water quantity and quality due to the high density of socio-economic activities and human assets in coastal regions and to the projected rising sea levels, contributing to the process of saltwater intrusion. This paper proposes a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology integrated with a chain of numerical models to evaluate potential climate change-related impacts on coastal aquifers and linked natural and human systems (i.e., wells, river, agricultural areas, lakes, forests and semi-natural environments). The RRA methodology employs Multi Criteria Decision Analysis methods and Geographic Information Systems functionalities to integrate heterogeneous spatial data on hazard, susceptibility and risk for saltwater intrusion and groundwater level variation. The proposed approach was applied on the Esino River basin (Italy) using future climate hazard scenarios based on a chain of climate, hydrological, hydraulic and groundwater system models running at different spatial scales. Models were forced with the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the period 2071-2100 over four seasons (i.e., winter, spring, summer and autumn). Results indicate that in future seasons, climate change will cause few impacts on the lower Esino River valley. Groundwater level decrease will have limited effects: agricultural areas, forests and semi-natural environments will be at risk only in a region close to the coastline which covers less than 5% of the total surface of the considered receptors; less than 3.5% of the wells will be exposed in the worst scenario. Saltwater intrusion impact in future scenarios will be restricted to a narrow region close to the coastline (only few hundred meters), and thus it is expected to have very limited effects on the Esino coastal aquifer with no consequences on the considered natural and human systems. PMID:26282744

  2. Impacts of Climate Change on Brazilian Agriculture : Refocusing Impact Assessments to 2050

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank, (WB)

    2010-01-01

    This report evaluates the requirements for an assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture to guide policy makers on investment priorities and phasing. Because agriculture is vital for national food security and is a strong contributor to Brazil's GDP growth, there is growing concern that Brazilian agriculture is increasingly vulnerable to climate variability and change. To meet nat...

  3. An Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, K. S.

    2009-09-01

    adaptation, mitigation and post-hazard recovery and resettlement measures. Providing basic necessities such as water, food and power, maintaining public health, implementing protective measures in the coastal zones and modifications in the urban infrastructure, especially in the coastal megacities become expensive. Impact of extremes on rails, roads and building are also becoming a major issue in the coastal zones and urban centres. Industrial sector is facing a threat from the falling reliable supply of water and power. However, procedure for the implementation of the strategies to mitigate the climate change impact and of the policy for the adaptation to climate change is slow. There are several hurdles for this, including various ecological, socio-economic, technical and political issues, alterations of the physical environment, inability of certain habitats and species to adapt to a new environment, abject poverty, lack of awareness, and the inefficient administrative mechanism. A comprehensive assessment of the shifts in regional climate and the impact of climate change on different facets of life in India, and of the current strategies and polices to face such challenges is made in this study. Suggestions for the improvement of the climate policy and adaptation strategy have been provided.

  4. Wildlife as biological indicators for assessing impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Estimates of the impacts of climate change on wildlife are necessarily constrained by knowledge of the effects of climate on wildlife. A review is presented of the better-known impacts of climate on wildlife, examining their utility as ecological indicators. The most obvious feature of any species is its geographic distribution, or range. Climate may affect distribution indirectly through effects on habitat, directly through physiological effects, or most probably, through both. Impacts can include changes in distribution of habitat, changes in distribution of species, and changes in migration routes. Direct effects of climate include timing and success of breeding, timing and success of migration, winter survival, and extreme events. Distribution changes are powerful integrators of ecosystem-level events, but poor indicators of particular changes. Changes in the timing of migration, and the phenology of breeding, are more directly determined by weather events and hence will be better indicators of changing climate. Detailed knowledge of effects of climate on timing and success of breeding is available for only a few species, and has not been carefully synthesized with a view to using such variables as climatic indicators. Temperature maxima and minima, frost-free and degree days, and estimates of precipitation on finer scales, both temporal and geographic, are needed to predict the effects of climate change on wildlife. 48 refs

  5. Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2013-04-01

    Future climate may have a profound effect on the freshwater cycle, which must be taken into consideration by water management for future planning. Developments in the future climate are nevertheless uncertain, thus adding to the challenge of managing an uncertain system. To support the water managers at various levels in Denmark, the national water resources model (DK-model) (Højberg et al., 2012; Stisen et al., 2012) was used to propagate future climate to hydrological response under considerations of the main sources of uncertainty. The DK-model is a physically based and fully distributed model constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE/MIKE11 model system describing groundwater and surface water systems and the interaction between the domains. The model has been constructed for the entire 43.000 km2 land area of Denmark only excluding minor islands. Future climate from General Circulation Models (GCM) was downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCM) by a distribution-based scaling method (Seaby et al., 2012). The same dataset was used to train all combinations of GCM-RCMs and they were found to represent the mean and variance at the seasonal basis equally well. Changes in hydrological response were computed by comparing the short term development from the period 1990 - 2010 to 2021 - 2050, which is the time span relevant for water management. To account for uncertainty in future climate predictions, hydrological response from the DK-model using nine combinations of GCMs and RCMs was analysed for two catchments representing the various hydrogeological conditions in Denmark. Three GCM-RCM combinations displaying high, mean and low future impacts were selected as representative climate models for which climate impact studies were carried out for the entire country. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity analysis and was generally found to be of less importance compared to the uncertainty spanned by the GCM-RCM combinations. Analysis of the simulations

  6. Health impact assessment of global climate change: expanding on comparative risk assessment approaches for policy making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patz, Jonathan; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Gibbs, Holly; Woodruff, Rosalie

    2008-01-01

    Climate change is projected to have adverse impacts on public health. Cobenefits may be possible from more upstream mitigation of greenhouse gases causing climate change. To help measure such cobenefits alongside averted disease-specific risks, a health impact assessment (HIA) framework can more comprehensively serve as a decision support tool. HIA also considers health equity, clearly part of the climate change problem. New choices for energy must be made carefully considering such effects as additional pressure on the world's forests through large-scale expansion of soybean and oil palm plantations, leading to forest clearing, biodiversity loss and disease emergence, expulsion of subsistence farmers, and potential increases in food prices and emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Investigators must consider the full range of policy options, supported by more comprehensive, flexible, and transparent assessment methods. PMID:18173382

  7. Assessment of impacts on ground water resources in Libya and vulnerability to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    S. P. Bindra; Hamid, A; S. Abulifa; H.S. Al Reiani; Hammuda Khalifa Abdalla

    2014-01-01

    This paper is designed to present the likely impact of climate change on groundwater resources in general and Libya in particular. State of the art reviews on recent research studies, and methodology to assess the impact of climate change on groundwater resources shows that climate change poses uncertainties to the supply and management of water resources. It outlines to demonstrate that how climate change impact assessment plays a vital role in forming the sensitive water balance rarely achi...

  8. A Health Impact Assessment Framework for Assessing Vulnerability and Adaptation Planning for Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen Brown

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a detailed description of an approach designed to investigate the application of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA framework to assess the potential health impacts of climate change. A HIA framework has been combined with key climate change terminology and concepts. The fundamental premise of this framework is an understanding of the interactions between people, the environment and climate. The diversity and complexity of these interactions can hinder much needed action on the critical health issue of climate change. The objectives of the framework are to improve the methodology for understanding and assessing the risks associated with potential health impacts of climate change, and to provide decision-makers with information that can facilitate the development of effective adaptation plans. While the process presented here provides guidance with respect to this task it is not intended to be prescriptive. As such, aspects of the process can be amended to suit the scope and available resources of each project. A series of working tables has been developed to assist in the collation of evidence throughout the process. The framework has been tested in a number of locations including Western Australia, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Nauru.

  9. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua

    2015-01-01

    The combination of a warming Earth and an increasing population will likely strain the world's food systems in the coming decades. Experts involved with the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) focus on quantifying the changes through time. AgMIP, a program begun in 2010, involves about 800 climate scientists, economists, nutritionists, information technology specialists, and crop and livestock experts. In mid-September 2015, the Aspen Global Change Institute convened an AgMIP workshop to draft plans and protocols for assessing global- and regional-scale modeling of crops, livestock, economics, and nutrition across major agricultural regions worldwide. The goal of this Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments (CGRA) project is to characterize climate effects on large- and small-scale farming systems.

  10. The impacts of climate change across the globe: a multi-sectoral assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Arnell, N. W.; Brown, S.; Gosling, S.N.; Gottschalk, P.; Hinkel, J.; Huntingford, C.; Lloyd-Hughes, B.; Lowe, J. A.; Nicholls, R. J.; Osborn, T. J.; Osborne, T. M.; Rose, G. A.; Smith, P; Wheeler, T.R.; Zelazowski, P

    2016-01-01

    The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts. This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate andsocio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built envir...

  11. Impact of global seismicity on sea level change assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Melini, D

    2005-01-01

    We analyze the effect of seismic activity on sealevel variations, by computing the time-dependent vertical crustal movement and geoid change due to coseismic deformations and postseismic relaxation effects. Seismic activity can affect both the absolute sealevel, by changing the Earth gravity field and hence the geoid height, and the relative sealevel, i.e. the radial distance between seafloor and geoid level. By using comprehensive seismic catalogues we assess the net effect of seismicity on tidal relative sealevel measurements as well as on the global oceanic surfaces, and we obtain an estimate of absolute sealevel variations of seismic origin. Our results confirm that, on a global scale, most of the signal is associated with few giant thrust events, and that RSL estimates obtained using tide-gauge data can be sensibly affected by the seismic driven sealevel signal. The recent measures of sealevel obtained by satellite altimetry show a wide regional variation of sealevel trends over the oceanic surfaces, wit...

  12. Health Consequence Scales for Use in Health Impact Assessments of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Helen Brown; Jeffery Spickett

    2014-01-01

    While health impact assessment (HIA) has typically been applied to projects, plans or policies, it has significant potential with regard to strategic considerations of major health issues facing society such as climate change. Given the complexity of climate change, assessing health impacts presents new challenges that may require different approaches compared to traditional applications of HIA. This research focuses on the development of health consequence scales suited to assessing and comp...

  13. Climate change impact assessment on food security in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ettema, Janneke; Aldrian, Edvin; de Bie, Kees; Jetten, Victor; Mannaerts, Chris

    2013-04-01

    As Indonesia is the world's fourth most populous country, food security is a persistent challenge. The potential impact of future climate change on the agricultural sector needs to be addressed in order to allow early implementation of mitigation strategies. The complex island topography and local sea-land-air interactions cannot adequately be represented in large scale General Climate Models (GCMs) nor visualized by TRMM. Downscaling is needed. Using meteorological observations and a simple statistical downscaling tool, local future projections are derived from state-of-the-art, large-scale GCM scenarios, provided by the CMIP5 project. To support the agriculture sector, providing information on especially rainfall and temperature variability is essential. Agricultural production forecast is influenced by several rain and temperature factors, such as rainy and dry season onset, offset and length, but also by daily and monthly minimum and maximum temperatures and its rainfall amount. A simple and advanced crop model will be used to address the sensitivity of different crops to temperature and rainfall variability, present-day and future. As case study area, Java Island is chosen as it is fourth largest island in Indonesia but contains more than half of the nation's population and dominates it politically and economically. The objective is to identify regions at agricultural risk due to changing patterns in precipitation and temperature.

  14. Climate Change Impact Assessment for Sustainable Water Quality Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Pin Tung

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of sustainable water quality management is to keep total pollutant discharges from exceeding the assimilation capacity of a water body. Climate change may influence streamflows, and further alter assimilation capacity and degrade river sustainability. The purposes of this study are to evaluate the effect of climate change on sustainable water quality management and design an early warning indicator to issue warnings on river sustainability. A systematic assessment procedure is proposed here, including a weather generation model, the streamflow component of GWLF, QUAL2E, and an optimization model. The Touchen creek in Taiwan is selected as the study area. Future climate scenarios derived from projections of four global climate models (GCMs and two pollutant discharge scenarios, as usual and proportional to population, are considered in this study. The results indicate that streamflows may very likely increase in humid seasons and decrease in arid seasons, respectively. The reduction of streamflow in arid seasons may further degrade water quality and assimilation capacity. In order to provide warnings to trigger necessary adaptation strategies, an early warning indicator is designed and its 30-year moving average is calculated. Finally, environmental monitoring systems and methods to prioritize adaptation strategies are discussed for further studies in the future.

  15. Climate change and plant health; Development of a conceptual frame-work for impact assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Breukers, M.L.H.

    2010-01-01

    This report presents a conceptual framework for systematic assessment of direct economic impacts of climate change on pest and disease management at the crop level. The framework evaluates and aggregates the effects, and subsequently impacts, of climate change on selected pests and diseases and thei

  16. Health Impacts of Climate Change in Vanuatu: An Assessment and Adaptation Action Plan

    OpenAIRE

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne; McIver, Lachlan

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is one of the greatest global challenges and Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable due to, among other factors, their geography, demography and level of economic development. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used as a basis for the consideration of the potential health impacts of changes in the climate on the population of Vanuatu, to assess the risks and propose a range of potential adaptive responses appropriate for Vanuatu. The HIA process involv...

  17. Uncertainties in Agricultural Impact Assessments of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Montesino San Martin, Manuel

    Future food security will be challenged by the likely increase in demand, changes in consumption patterns and the effects of climate change. Framing food availability requires adequate agricultural production planning. Decision-making can benefit from improved understanding of the uncertainties...... for adaptation to climate change (and a significant aspect for the design of the Representative Agricultural Pathways)....

  18. A New Economic Assessment Index for the Impact of Climate Change on Grain Yield

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community.This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional "yield impact of meteorological factor (YIMF)" or "yield impact of weather factor" to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore,the concept of the yield impact of climatic change (YICC), which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields (PUAY) of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China,and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.

  19. Climate change and plant health; Development of a conceptual frame-work for impact assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Breukers, M.L.H.

    2010-01-01

    This report presents a conceptual framework for systematic assessment of direct economic impacts of climate change on pest and disease management at the crop level. The framework evaluates and aggregates the effects, and subsequently impacts, of climate change on selected pests and diseases and their control in a particular crop. Application of the framework reveals opportunities and threats in crop protection resulting from climate change, and can direct future adaptation efforts.

  20. Integrating Water into an Economic Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Egypt

    OpenAIRE

    Yates, D

    1996-01-01

    Recent research indicates that larger countries, with multiple agro-climatic zones, have the capacity to adjust to marginal climate changes which could occur over the next century. However, in countries with fewer adaptation options and with increasing dependency on imports to meet growing domestic demands, climate change might have significant impacts. To date, little has been done on assessing integrated impacts of climate change in developing countries. This motivates the need for imp...

  1. Multi-model approach to assess the impact of climate change on runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dams, J.; Nossent, J.; Senbeta, T. B.; Willems, P.; Batelaan, O.

    2015-10-01

    The assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology is subject to uncertainties related to the climate change scenarios, stochastic uncertainties of the hydrological model and structural uncertainties of the hydrological model. This paper focuses on the contribution of structural uncertainty of hydrological models to the overall uncertainty of the climate change impact assessment. To quantify the structural uncertainty of hydrological models, four physically based hydrological models (SWAT, PRMS and a semi- and fully distributed version of the WetSpa model) are set up for a catchment in Belgium. Each model is calibrated using four different objective functions. Three climate change scenarios with a high, mean and low hydrological impact are statistically perturbed from a large ensemble of climate change scenarios and are used to force the hydrological models. This methodology allows assessing and comparing the uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios with the uncertainty introduced by the hydrological model structure. Results show that the hydrological model structure introduces a large uncertainty on both the average monthly discharge and the extreme peak and low flow predictions under the climate change scenarios. For the low impact climate change scenario, the uncertainty range of the mean monthly runoff is comparable to the range of these runoff values in the reference period. However, for the mean and high impact scenarios, this range is significantly larger. The uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios is larger than the uncertainty due to the hydrological model structure for the low and mean hydrological impact scenarios, but the reverse is true for the high impact climate change scenario. The mean and high impact scenarios project increasing peak discharges, while the low impact scenario projects increasing peak discharges only for peak events with return periods larger than 1.6 years. All models suggest for all scenarios a

  2. Health impacts of climate change in the Solomon Islands: an assessment and adaptation action plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne

    2014-09-01

    The Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable to the environmental changes wrought by global climate change such as sea level rise, more frequent and intense extreme weather events and increasing temperatures. The potential biophysical changes likely to affect these countries have been identified and it is important that consideration be given to the implications of these changes on the health of their citizens. The potential health impacts of climatic changes on the population of the Solomon Islands were assessed through the use of a Health Impact Assessment framework. The process used a collaborative and consultative approach with local experts to identify the impacts to health that could arise from local environmental changes, considered the risks associated with these and proposed appropriate potential adaptive responses. Participants included knowledgeable representatives from the biophysical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food sectors. The risk assessments considered both the likelihood and consequences of the health impacts occurring using a qualitative process. To mitigate the adverse effects of the health impacts, an extensive range of potential adaptation strategies were developed. The overall process provided an approach that could be used for further assessments as well as an extensive range of responses which could be used by sectors and to assist future decision making associated with the Solomon Islands' responses to climate change. PMID:25168977

  3. Health Impacts of Climate Change in the Solomon Islands: An Assessment and Adaptation Action Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne

    2014-01-01

    The Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable to the environmental changes wrought by global climate change such as sea level rise, more frequent and intense extreme weather events and increasing temperatures. The potential biophysical changes likely to affect these countries have been identified and it is important that consideration be given to the implications of these changes on the health of their citizens. The potential health impacts of climatic changes on the population of the Solomon Islands were assessed through the use of a Health Impact Assessment framework. The process used a collaborative and consultative approach with local experts to identify the impacts to health that could arise from local environmental changes, considered the risks associated with these and proposed appropriate potential adaptive responses. Participants included knowledgeable representatives from the biophysical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food sectors. The risk assessments considered both the likelihood and consequences of the health impacts occurring using a qualitative process. To mitigate the adverse effects of the health impacts, an extensive range of potential adaptation strategies were developed. The overall process provided an approach that could be used for further assessments as well as an extensive range of responses which could be used by sectors and to assist future decision making associated with the Solomon Islands’ responses to climate change. PMID:25168977

  4. Adaptation strategies for health impacts of climate change in Western Australia: Application of a Health Impact Assessment framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing the globe and there is substantial evidence that this will result in a number of health impacts, regardless of the level of greenhouse gas mitigation. It is therefore apparent that a combined approach of mitigation and adaptation will be required to protect public health. While the importance of mitigation is recognised, this project focused on the role of adaptation strategies in addressing the potential health impacts of climate change. The nature and magnitude of these health impacts will be determined by a number of parameters that are dependent upon the location. Firstly, climate change will vary between regions. Secondly, the characteristics of each region in terms of population and the ability to adapt to changes will greatly influence the extent of the health impacts that are experienced now and into the future. Effective adaptation measures therefore need to be developed with these differences in mind. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used to consider the implications of climate change on the health of the population of Western Australia (WA) and to develop a range of adaptive responses suited to WA. A broad range of stakeholders participated in the HIA process, providing informed input into developing an understanding of the potential health impacts and potential adaptation strategies from a diverse sector perspective. Potential health impacts were identified in relation to climate change predictions in WA in the year 2030. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed using a qualitative process that considered the consequences and the likelihood of the health impact occurring. Adaptations were then developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by Government for future decision making. The periodic application of a HIA framework is seen as an ideal tool to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to

  5. A hybrid approach to incorporating climate change and variability into climate scenario for impact assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Gebretsadik, Yohannes; Strzepek, Kenneth; Schlosser, C. Adam

    2014-01-01

    Traditional 'delta-change' approach of scenario generation for climate change impact assessment to water resources strongly depends on the selected base-case observed historical climate conditions that the climate shocks are to be super-imposed. This method disregards the combined effect of climate change and the inherent hydro-climatological variability in the system. Here we demonstrated a hybrid uncertainty approach in which uncertainties in historical climate variability are combined with...

  6. Health impacts of climate change in Vanuatu: an assessment and adaptation action plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne; McIver, Lachlan

    2013-05-01

    Climate change is one of the greatest global challenges and Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable due to, among other factors, their geography, demography and level of economic development. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used as a basis for the consideration of the potential health impacts of changes in the climate on the population of Vanuatu, to assess the risks and propose a range of potential adaptive responses appropriate for Vanuatu. The HIA process involved the participation of a broad range of stakeholders including expert sector representatives in the areas of bio-physical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food, who provided informed comment and input into the understanding of the potential health impacts and development of adaptation strategies. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed with the application of a qualitative process that considered both the consequences and the likelihood of each of the potential health impacts occurring. Potential adaptation strategies and actions were developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by the various sectors in Vanuatu to contribute to future decision making processes associated with the health impacts of climate change. PMID:23618474

  7. A new dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Heinke

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature changeTglob has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalized patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilize a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

  8. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  9. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  10. Research highlights: modelling to assess climate change impacts and promote development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luxem, Katja E; Lin, Vivian S

    2015-08-01

    We highlight four recent articles on biophysical modelling for the Ecosystem Services and Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) Deltas project in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta system. These publications are part of a themed collection in Environmental Science: Processes & Impacts and contribute to a larger body of collaborative work that aims to assess the impacts of changing climate, policy, and development efforts on vulnerable populations in the GBM delta. PMID:26186156

  11. Assessment of impacts on ground water resources in Libya and vulnerability to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. P. Bindra

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper is designed to present the likely impact of climate change on groundwater resources in general and Libya in particular. State of the art reviews on recent research studies, and methodology to assess the impact of climate change on groundwater resources shows that climate change poses uncertainties to the supply and management of water resources. It outlines to demonstrate that how climate change impact assessment plays a vital role in forming the sensitive water balance rarely achieved in most area owing to precipitation variability’s and seasonality. It demonstrates that how large increases in water demand with very little recharge from precipitation have strained Libya’s groundwater resources resulting in declines of groundwater levels and its quality, especially on Libyan coastal areas where most of the agriculture, domestic and industrial activities are concentrated. Based on several research studies it demonstrates that how policy and decision making process using best practices for monitoring, analyzing and forecasting variation of climate is a way forward to cope with the impact of sea level rise, and combat some water supplies in vulnerable areas that are becoming unusable due to the penetration of salt water into coastal aquifers (Jifara Plain, Sirt, Jebal El-Akhdar.Finally, a number of Global Climate Models (GCM are reviewed to demonstrate that how better understanding of climate and climate change forecasting helps in devising appropriate adaptation strategies due to the impact of climate change.

  12. An empirical economic assessment of impacts of climate change on agriculture in Zambia

    OpenAIRE

    Jain, Suman

    2007-01-01

    This report assesses the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Zambia, using the Ricardian method. A multiple linear regression model with net revenue per hectare as response variable has been fitted with climate, hydrological, soil, and socioeconomic variables as explanatory variables. There is one main cropping season in Zambia, lasting from November to April. Crop product...

  13. Climate Change Education: Quantitatively Assessing the Impact of a Botanical Garden as an Informal Learning Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellmann, Daniela; Bogner, Franz X.

    2013-01-01

    Although informal learning environments have been studied extensively, ours is one of the first studies to quantitatively assess the impact of learning in botanical gardens on students' cognitive achievement. We observed a group of 10th graders participating in a one-day educational intervention on climate change implemented in a botanical…

  14. A systematic approach to assess human wellbeing demonstrated for impacts of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Lissner Tabea K.; Reusser Dominik E.; Lakes Tobia; Kropp Jürgen P.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change impacts will affect many important societal sectors, with potential negative consequences for human well-being and livelihoods, however an integrated and systematic measure to assess the state of livelihood conditions in this context is not available. At the same time, human livelihoods and wellbeing are an important part of (social) sustainability. Yet, aspects of human needs and well-being within assessments of sustainability are criticised for being ...

  15. Toward a Simple Probabilistic GCM Emulator for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sue Wing, I.; Tebaldi, C.; Nychka, D. W.; Winkler, J.

    2014-12-01

    Climate emulators can bridge spatial scales in integrated assessment in ways that allow us to take advantage of the evolving understanding of the impacts of climate change. The spatial scales at which climate impacts occur are much finer than those of the "damage functions" in integrated assessment models (IAMs), which incorporate reduced form climate models to project changes in global mean temperature, and estimate aggregate damages directly from that. Advancing the state of IA modeling requires methods to generate—in a flexible and computationally efficient manner—future changes in climate variables at the geographic scales at which individual impact endpoints can be resolved. The state of the art uses outputs of global climate models (GCMs) forced by warming scenarios to drive impact calculations. However, downstream integrated assessments are perforce "locked-in" to the particular GCM x warming scenario combinations that generated the meteorological fields of interest—it is not possible assess risk due to the absence of probabilities over warming scenarios or model uncertainty. The availability of reduced-form models which can efficiently simulate the envelope of the response of multiple GCMs to a given amount of warming provides us with capability to create probabilistic projections of fine-scale of meteorological changes conditional on global mean temperature change to drive impact calculations in ways that permit risk assessments. This presentation documents a prototype probabilistic climate emulator for use as a GCM diagnostic tool and a driver of climate change impact assessments. We use a regression-based approach to construct multi-model global patterns for changes in temperature and precipitation from the CMIP3 archive. Crucially, regression residuals are used to derive a spatial covariance function of the model- and scenario-dependent deviations from the average pattern. By sampling from this manifold we can rapidly generate many realizations of

  16. Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amy K. Snover; Nathan J. Mantua; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander; Michelle M. McClure; Janet Nye

    2013-01-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

  17. Assessing impacts of climate change on forests: The state of biological modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dale, V.H. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Rauscher, H.M. [Forest Service, Grand Rapids, MI (United States). North Central Forest Experiment Station

    1993-04-06

    Models that address the impacts to forests of climate change are reviewed by four levels of biological organization: global, regional or landscape, community, and tree. The models are compared as to their ability to assess changes in greenhouse gas flux, land use, maps of forest type or species composition, forest resource productivity, forest health, biodiversity, and wildlife habitat. No one model can address all of these impacts, but landscape transition models and regional vegetation and land-use models consider the largest number of impacts. Developing landscape vegetation dynamics models of functional groups is suggested as a means to integrate the theory of both landscape ecology and individual tree responses to climate change. Risk assessment methodologies can be adapted to deal with the impacts of climate change at various spatial and temporal scales. Four areas of research development are identified: (1) linking socioeconomic and ecologic models, (2) interfacing forest models at different scales, (3) obtaining data on susceptibility of trees and forest to changes in climate and disturbance regimes, and (4) relating information from different scales.

  18. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, V. H.; Rauscher, H. M.

    1993-04-06

    Models that address the impacts to forests of climate change are reviewed by four levels of biological organization: global, regional or landscape, community, and tree. The models are compared as to their ability to assess changes in greenhouse gas flux, land use, maps of forest type or species composition, forest resource productivity, forest health, biodiversity, and wildlife habitat. No one model can address all of these impacts, but landscape transition models and regional vegetation and land-use models consider the largest number of impacts. Developing landscape vegetation dynamics models of functional groups is suggested as a means to integrate the theory of both landscape ecology and individual tree responses to climate change. Risk assessment methodologies can be adapted to deal with the impacts of climate change at various spatial and temporal scales. Four areas of research development are identified: (1) linking socioeconomic and ecologic models, (2) interfacing forest models at different scales, (3) obtaining data on susceptibility of trees and forest to changes in climate and disturbance regimes, and (4) relating information from different scales.

  19. Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options in Vulnerable Agro-Landscapes in East-Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manful, D.; Tscherning, K.; Kersebaum, K.; Dietz, J.; Dietrich, O.; Gomani, C.; Böhm, H.; Büchner, M.; Lischeid, G.,; Ojoyi, M.,

    2009-04-01

    Climate change poses a risk to the livelihoods of large populations in the developing world, especially in Africa. In East Africa, climate change is expected to affect the spatial distribution and quantity of precipitation. The proposed project will assess aspects of climate impacts and adaptation options in Tanzania. The project will attempt to quantify (1) projected impacts including: variability in temperature, rainfall, flooding and drought (2) the affect changes in 1. will have on specific sectors namely agriculture (food security), water resources and ecosystem services. The cumulative effects of diminished surface and ground water flow on agricultural production coupled with increasing demand for food due to increase in human pressure will also be evaluated. Expected outputs of the project include (1) downscaled climate change scenarios for different IPCC emission scenarios (2) model based estimations of climate change impacts on hydrological cycle and assessment of land use options (3) scenarios of sustainable livelihoods and resilient agro-landscapes under climate change (4) assessment of adaptive practices and criteria for best adaptation practices. The presentation will focus on novel approaches that focus on the use of agro-ecosystem models to predict local and regional impacts of climate variability on food with specific needs of the end-user factored into model set-up process. In other words, model configurations adapted to the information needs of a specific end-user or audience are evaluated. The perception of risk within different end-users (small scale farmer versus a regional or state level policy maker) are explicitly taken into consideration with the overarching aim of maximizing the impact of the results obtained from computer-based simulations.

  20. An Integrated Modeling Framework for Assessment of Impacts of Multiple Global Changes on Terrestrial Productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittig, V.; Yang, X.; Jain, A.

    2008-12-01

    Independent changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen deposition and climate change directly impact terrestrial productivity. Less well understood are the interactive effects of these globally changing factors on terrestrial productivity and the resultant impact on rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. This study uses the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) to quantify the impacts of these multiple global changes on terrestrial productivity and further, to project how these changes feedback on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations via respiratory carbon fluxes. The ISAM is modified to include a mechanistic model of leaf photosynthesis including the sensitivity of leaf photosynthesis to tropospheric ozone. Leaf-level photosynthetic carbon gain is scaled to the canopy with a sun-shade microclimate model to estimate the gross primary productivity of major biomes comprised of representative plant functional types. The modified carbon cycle in ISAM is coupled to a detailed model of the terrestrial nitrogen cycle therefore providing the integrated modeling framework required to assess the interactive effects of rising carbon dioxide, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen deposition and climate change on global productivity.

  1. A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

    OpenAIRE

    Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; S. Schaphoff; Frieler, K.; C. Müller; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.

    2013-01-01

    In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of tempe...

  2. A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity

    OpenAIRE

    Simon N. Gosling; Arnell, Nigel W.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water resources across 1339 watersheds. The Water Crowding Index (WCI) and the Water Stress Index (WSI) are used to calculate exposure to increases and decreases in global water scarcity due to climate change. 1.6 (WCI) and 2.4 (WSI) billion people are es...

  3. Towards an integrated economic assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotze-Campen, H.; Piontek, F.; Stevanovic, M.; Popp, A.; Bauer, N.; Dietrich, J.; Mueller, C.; Schmitz, C.

    2012-12-01

    For a detailed understanding of the effects of climate change on global agricultural production systems, it is essential to consider the variability of climate change patterns as projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs), their bio-physical impact on crops and the response in land-use patterns and markets. So far, approaches that account for the interaction of bio-physical and economic impacts are largely lacking. We present an integrative analysis by using a soft-coupled system of a biophysical impact model (LPJmL, Bondeau et al. 2007), an economically driven land use model (MAgPIE, Lotze-Campen et al. 2008) and an integrated assessment model (ReMIND-R, Leimbach et al. 2010) to study climate change impacts and economic damages in the agricultural sector. First, the dynamic global vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL is used to derive climate change impacts on crop yields for wheat, maize, soy, rice and other major crops. A range of different climate projections is used, taken from the dataset provided by the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP, www.isi-mip.org), which bias-corrected the latest CMIP5 climate data (Taylor et al. 2011). Crop yield impacts cover scenarios with and without CO2 fertilization as well as different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and different GCMs. With increasing temperature towards the end of the century yields generally decrease in tropical and subtropical regions, while they tend to benefit in higher latitudes. LPJmL results have been compared to other global crop models in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP, www.agmip.org). Second, changes in crop yields are analysed with the spatially explicit agro-economic model MAgPIE, which covers their interaction with economic development and changes in food demand. Changes in prices as well as welfare changes of producer and consumer surplus are taken as economic indicators. Due to climate-change related reductions in

  4. Climate change and forests: Impacts and adaption. A regional assessment for the Western Ghats, India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ravindranath, N.H.; Sukumar, R. [Indian Inst. of Science, Bangalore (India). Centre for Ecological Sciences; Deshingkar, P. [Stockholm Environment Inst. (Sweden)

    1997-12-31

    Potential climate change over the next 50 to 100 years could have major impacts on tropical forests. Forests, particularly in the tropics, are subjected to anthropogenic pressures leading to degradation and loss of forest ecosystems. Given the significant dependence of local people and economies on forests in tropical and temperate countries, there is a need to assess the possible impacts of climate change and to develop adaption measures. The diversity of forest types in the Western Ghats ranges from wet evergreen and deciduous forest to dry thorn and montane forests with a wide range of annual rainfall regimes (from less than 65 cm to over 300 cm). The study was conducted in two regions of the Western Ghats; the Uttara Kannada district and the Nilgiris. Climate change projections for 2020 and 2050 were used in assessing the possible impacts on forests. In general, the `most likely` projections of climate change were an increase in mean temperature in the range of 0.3-1.0 deg C and an increase in precipitation of 3-8% over the study regions by the year 2050. The `worst case` scenario was an increase in temperature of 1 deg C and a decrease in precipitation by 8% by 2050. To assess the vegetational responses to climate change, a simple model based on present-day correlations between climatic (mean annual temperature and precipitation) and vegetation types for these regions was developed. Likely changes in the areas under different forest types were assessed for `moderate climate` sensitivity and central scaling factor (referred to as the `most likely scenario`) for the years 2020 and 2050, and `high climate` sensitivity and a lower scaling factor (the `worst case scenario`) for 2050 90 refs, 15 figs, 15 tabs

  5. Changes in the impact assessment family 2003-2014 : Implications for considering achievements, gaps and future directions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vanclay, Francis

    2015-01-01

    Over 150 forms of impact assessment can be identified using Google searches, with several new forms appearing since 2003. Since then, the popularity of the various members of the impact assessment family has changed, partly in response to legislative and regulatory changes, and general trends in soc

  6. A New Framework for Spatio-temporal Climate Change Impact Assessment for Terrestrial Wildlife

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lankford-Bingle, Amber J.; Svancara, Leona K.; Vierling, Kerri

    2015-12-01

    We describe a first step framework for climate change species' impact assessments that produces spatially and temporally heterogeneous models of climate impacts. Case study results are provided for great gray owl ( Strix nebulosa) in Idaho as an example of framework application. This framework applies species-specific sensitivity weights to spatial and seasonal models of climate exposure to produce spatial and seasonal models of climate impact. We also evaluated three methods of calculating sensitivity by comparing spatial models of combined exposure and sensitivity. We found the methods used to calculated sensitivity showed little difference, except where sensitivity was directional (i.e., more sensitive to an increase in temperature than a decrease). This approach may assist in the development of State Wildlife Action Plans and other wildlife management plans in the face of potential future climate change.

  7. Integrated Modelling for Health and Environmental Impact Assessment of Air Pollution and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Reis, Stefan; Oxley, Tim; Rowe, Ed

    2010-01-01

    Modelling the impacts of air pollution and climate change on human health and ecosystems in integrated assessment models (IAMs) has emerged as a key tool to inform policy decision making, where simplistic solutions are unlikely to deliver efficient and sustainable pathways for future development. Model integration is facing a complex set of challenges in different dimensions, as integrated models have to be: Spatially explicit and of sufficiently high spatial resolution for...

  8. Honey Production for Assessing the Impact of Climatic Changes on Vegetation

    OpenAIRE

    Schweitzer, P.; Nombré, I.; Boussim, JI.

    2013-01-01

    Burkina Faso is experiencing the effects of climate change in all sectors of its agriculture, including honey production. This study assessed the impact of climatic factors on countries' vegetation through honey production. Honey production of nine apiaries consisting of 165 rectangular movable frames beehives was monitored over a seven year period starting from 2002 to 2008. Climatic data such as rainfall, temperature and wind speed were obtained from the nearest meteorological station. Line...

  9. Assessing the impacts of climate change on rice yields in the main rice areas of China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper assesses the impact of climate change on irrigated rice yield using B2 climate change scenario from the Regional Climate Model (RCM) and CERES-rice model during 2071--2090. Eight typical rice stations ranging in latitude, longitude, and elevation that are located in the main rice ecological zones of China are selected for impact assessment. First, Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES)-rice model is validated using farm experiment data in selected stations. The simulated results represent satisfactorily the trend of flowering duration and yields. The deviation of simulation within ± 10% of observed flowering duration and ± 15% of observed yield. Second, the errors of the outputs of RCM due to the difference of topography between station point and grid point is corrected. The corrected output of the RCM used for simulating rice flowering duration and yield is more reliable than the not corrected. Without CO2 direct effect on crop, the results from the assessment explore that B2 climate change scenario would have a negative impact on rice yield at most rice stations and have little impacts at Fuzhou and Kunming. To find the change of inter-annual rice yield, a preliminary assessment is made based on comparative cumulative probability at low and high yield and the coefficient variable of yield between the B2 scenario and baseline. Without the CO2 direct effect on rice yield, the result indicates that frequency for low yield would increase and it reverses for high yield, and the variance for rice yield would increase. It is concluded that high frequency at low yield and high variances of rice yield could pose a threat to rice yield at most selected stations in the main rice areas of China. With the CO2 direct effect on rice yield, rice yield increase in all selected stations

  10. Socio-economic and Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: An Integrated Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Fischer, G.; Shah, M. M.; Tubiello, F.N.; H.T. van Velthuizen

    2005-01-01

    A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro- ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological- economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in...

  11. Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990–2080

    OpenAIRE

    Fischer, Günther; Shah, Mahendra; N. Tubiello, Francesco; van Velhuizen, Harrij

    2005-01-01

    A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological–economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conj...

  12. The impact of climate change on water resources: Assessment at the scale of the Indian subcontinent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pechlivanidis, Ilias; Olsson, Jonas; Bosshard, Thomas; Sharma, Devesh; Sharma, Kc; Arheimer, Berit

    2015-04-01

    The large increase in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases has led to the global climate change phenomenon which is expected to have a strong impact on water resources on local, regional and global scales. The Indian subcontinent is vulnerable to climate change since the region is characterized by a strong hydro-climatic gradient due to monsoon and the geographic features, and hence poses extraordinary challenges to understand, quantify and predict future availability in water resources. In here, the impact of climate change on the hydro-climatology of the subcontinent is investigated by comparing statistics of current and projected future fluxes resulting from three emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The use of different emission scenarios allows for the definition of uncertainty of future impacts. Climate projections from the CORDEX-South Asia framework have been bias-corrected using the DBS (Distribution Based Scaling) method and used to force the HYPE (HYdrological Predictions for the Environment) hydrological model to generate projections of evapotranspiration, runoff, soil moisture deficit, snow depth, and applied irrigation water to soil. In addition, we assess the changes on high and low flows from all river systems as well as the changes in the annual cycles. Overall, the high uncertainty in the climate projections is propagated in the hydrological impact model, and as a result the spatiotemporal distribution of change is subject to the climate projection. In general, results from all scenarios indicate a -20 to +50% change in long-term average precipitation and evapotranspiration, yet a higher change (-100 to +100%) in runoff. Analysis of annual cycles showed that climate change impacts vary between seasons whereas the effect is dependent on the region's hydro-climatic gradient. Future scenarios project a graduate increase in temperature from 1 up to 76°C on average, which further affects the need for irrigation and snow

  13. Assessing climate change impacts on water balance in the Mount Makiling forest, Philippines

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    E A Combalicer; R V O Cruz; S Lee; S Im

    2010-06-01

    A statistical downscaling known for producing station-scale climate information from GCM output was preferred to evaluate the impacts of climate change within the Mount Makiling forest watershed, Philippines. The lumped hydrologic BROOK90 model was utilized for the water balance assessment of climate change impacts based on two scenarios (A1B and A2) from CGCM3 experiment. The annual precipitation change was estimated to be 0.1–9.3% increase for A1B scenario, and −3.3 to 3.3% decrease/increase for the A2 scenario. Difference in the mean temperature between the present and the 2080s were predicted to be 0.6–2.2°C and 0.6–3.0°C under A1B and A2 scenarios, respectively. The water balance showed that 42% of precipitation is converted into evaporation, 48% into streamflow, and 10% into deep seepage loss. The impacts of climate change on water balance reflected dramatic fluctuations in hydrologic events leading to high evaporation losses, and decrease in streamflow, while groundwater flow appeared unaffected. A study on the changes in monthly water balance provided insights into the hydrologic changes within the forest watershed system which can be used in mitigating the effects of climate change.

  14. Climate change impact assessment in Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part II: a spatially resolved regional risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Rizzi, J; Zabeo, A; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impact assessment on water resources has received high international attention over the last two decades, due to the observed global warming and its consequences at the global to local scale. In particular, climate-related risks for groundwater and related ecosystems pose a great concern to scientists and water authorities involved in the protection of these valuable resources. The close link of global warming with water cycle alterations encourages research to deepen current knowledge on relationships between climate trends and status of water systems, and to develop predictive tools for their sustainable management, copying with key principles of EU water policy. Within the European project Life+ TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groundwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change), a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed in order to identify impacts from climate change on groundwater and associated ecosystems (e.g. surface waters, agricultural areas, natural environments) and to rank areas and receptors at risk in the high and middle Veneto and Friuli Plain (Italy). Based on an integrated analysis of impacts, vulnerability and risks linked to climate change at the regional scale, a RRA framework complying with the Sources-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) approach was defined. Relevant impacts on groundwater and surface waters (i.e. groundwater level variations, changes in nitrate infiltration processes, changes in water availability for irrigation) were selected and analyzed through hazard scenario, exposure, susceptibility and risk assessment. The RRA methodology used hazard scenarios constructed through global and high resolution model simulations for the 2071-2100 period, according to IPCC A1B emission scenario in order to produce useful indications for future risk prioritization and to support the addressing of adaptation measures, primarily Managed Artificial Recharge (MAR) techniques. Relevant

  15. Assessing the impact of climate change upon hydrology and agriculture in the Indrawati Basin, Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palazzoli, Irene; Bocchiola, Daniele; Nana, Ester; Maskey, Shreedhar; Uhlenbrook, Stefan

    2014-05-01

    Agriculture is sensitive to climate change, especially to temperature and precipitation changes. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the climate change impacts upon rain-fed crops production in the Indrawati river basin, Nepal. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool SWAT model was used to model hydrology and cropping systems in the catchment, and to predict the influence of different climate change scenarios therein. Daily weather data collected from about 13 weather stations during 4 decades were used to constrain the SWAT model, and data from two hydrometric stations used to calibrate/validate it. Then management practices (crop calendar) were applied to specific Hydrological Response Units (HRUs) for the main crops of the region, rice, corn and wheat. Manual calibration of crop production was also carried, against values of crop yield in the area from literature. The calibrated and validated model was further applied to assess the impact of three future climate change scenarios (RCPs) upon the crop productivity in the region. Three climate models (GCMs) were adopted, each with three RCPs (2.5, 4.5, 8.5). Hence, impacts of climate change were assessed considering three time windows, namely a baseline period (1995-2004), the middle of century (2045-2054) and the end of century (2085-2094). For each GCM and RCP future hydrology and yield was compared to baseline scenario. The results displayed slightly modified hydrological cycle, and somewhat small variation in crop production, variable with models and RCPs, and for crop type, the largest being for wheat. Keywords: Climate Change, Nepal, hydrological cycle, crop yield.

  16. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Electric Power Generation in the Western Interconnection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartos, M. D.; Chester, M.

    2014-12-01

    In recent years, concerns have grown over the potential impacts of climate change on electricity generation. Water resources are integral to the production of thermoelectric and hydroelectric power, and droughts are expected to become more frequent, severe, and longer-lasting over the course of the twenty-first century. Many generation technologies—including gas turbines and solar cells—are also vulnerable to changes in local climatic conditions like ambient air temperature. As extreme weather becomes more common, methods are needed to assess the impacts of climate change on regional power systems. However, these methods must also account for (1) heterogeneity in generation technologies, and (2) local variation in climatic conditions. This study uses a physically-based modeling system to assess the vulnerability of electric power infrastructure in the Western Interconnection. Climatic and hydrologic parameters relevant to power generation are identified for six generation technologies. Downscaled climate forcings are then used as inputs to a physically-based modeling system, consisting of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model and the RBM one-dimensional stream temperature model. Impacts to generating capacity are estimated directly from changes in modeled climatic and hydrologic parameters, using functional relationships unique to each generating technology. A preliminary analysis of 1,302 power stations in the Western Interconnection reveals decreases in summertime generating capacity of 8-22%, with the largest impacts occurring at thermoelectric and hydroelectric facilities in the Pacific Northwest and California. Impacts to base-load thermoelectric plants are mitigated by recirculating cooling systems, which reduce the performance penalty of low flows and high water temperatures. Climate impacts on solar and wind capacity are relatively small, indicating that these energy sources may play a more prominent role as conventional generation

  17. Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990-2080.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Günther; Shah, Mahendra; Tubiello, Francesco N; van Velhuizen, Harrij

    2005-11-29

    A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological-economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5' X 5' latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socio-economic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change. PMID:16433094

  18. An Integrated Hydro-Economic Model for Economy-Wide Climate Change Impact Assessment for Zambia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, T.; Thurlow, J.; Diao, X.

    2008-12-01

    Zambia is a landlocked country in Southern Africa, with a total population of about 11 million and a total area of about 752 thousand square kilometers. Agriculture in the country depends heavily on rainfall as the majority of cultivated land is rain-fed. Significant rainfall variability has been a huge challenge for the country to keep a sustainable agricultural growth, which is an important condition for the country to meet the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. The situation is expected to become even more complex as climate change would impose additional impacts on rainwater availability and crop water requirements, among other changes. To understand the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production and national economy, a soil hydrology model and a crop water production model are developed to simulate actual crop water uses and yield losses under water stress which provide annual shocks for a recursive dynamic computational general equilibrium (CGE) model developed for Zambia. Observed meteorological data of the past three decades are used in the integrated hydro-economic model for climate variability impact analysis, and as baseline climatology for climate change impact assessment together with several GCM-based climate change scenarios that cover a broad range of climate projections. We found that climate variability can explain a significant portion of the annual variations of agricultural production and GDP of Zambia in the past. Hidden beneath climate variability, climate change is found to have modest impacts on agriculture and national economy of Zambia around 2025 but the impacts would be pronounced in the far future if appropriate adaptations are not implemented. Policy recommendations are provided based on scenario analysis.

  19. Data driven approaches vs. qualitative approaches in climate change impact and vulnerability assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zebisch, Marc; Schneiderbauer, Stefan; Petitta, Marcello

    2015-04-01

    In the last decade the scope of climate change science has broadened significantly. 15 years ago the focus was mainly on understanding climate change, providing climate change scenarios and giving ideas about potential climate change impacts. Today, adaptation to climate change has become an increasingly important field of politics and one role of science is to inform and consult this process. Therefore, climate change science is not anymore focusing on data driven approaches only (such as climate or climate impact models) but is progressively applying and relying on qualitative approaches including opinion and expertise acquired through interactive processes with local stakeholders and decision maker. Furthermore, climate change science is facing the challenge of normative questions, such us 'how important is a decrease of yield in a developed country where agriculture only represents 3% of the GDP and the supply with agricultural products is strongly linked to global markets and less depending on local production?'. In this talk we will present examples from various applied research and consultancy projects on climate change vulnerabilities including data driven methods (e.g. remote sensing and modelling) to semi-quantitative and qualitative assessment approaches. Furthermore, we will discuss bottlenecks, pitfalls and opportunities in transferring climate change science to policy and decision maker oriented climate services.

  20. Uncertainties in assessing climate change impacts on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf

    2013-04-01

    There is substantial evidence in historical and recent observations that the Mediterranean and neighboring regions are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Numerous climate projections, stemming from ensembles of global and regional climate models, agree on severe changes in the climate forcing which are likely to exacerbate subsequent ecological, economic and social impacts. Many of these causal connections are closely linked to the general expectation that water availability will decline in the already water-stressed basins of Africa, the Mediterranean region and the Near East, even though considerable regional variances must be expected. Consequently, climate change impacts on water resources are raising concerns regarding their possible management and security implications. Decreasing access to water resources and other related factors could be a cause or a 'multiplier' of tensions within and between countries. Whether security threats arise from climate impacts or options for cooperation evolve does not depend only on the severity of the impacts themselves, but on social, economic, and institutional vulnerabilities or resilience as well as factors that influence local, national and international relations. However, an assessment of vulnerability and risks hinges on natural, socio-economic, and political conditions and responses, all of which are uncertain. Multidisciplinary research is needed to tackle the multi-facet complexity of climate change impacts on water resources in the Mediterranean and neighboring countries. This is particularly true in a region of overall data scarcity and poor data management and exchange structures. The current potential to develop appropriate regional adaptation measures towards climate change impacts suffers heavily from large uncertainties. These spread along a long chain of components, starting from the definition of emission scenarios to global and regional climate modeling to impact models and a

  1. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on the Performance of Major Water Projects over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Q.; Liu, X.; Yin, Y. Y.; Zhang, C.; Zhang, X.

    2014-12-01

    The terrestrial water cycle has been largely altered by water projects in China. Since 1950, half of the world's large dams over 15 m height have been built in China. The installed hydropower capacity in China was 249 GW in 2012, accounting for about one-fifth of the total installed hydropower capacity of the world. China has also pursued an ambitious effort, the South-North Water Diversion Project, to transfer 44.8 billion m3 of freshwater annually from southern China to the drier north. Climate change is expected to result in changes in land surface hydrology, thus pose a huge challenge to water management. The potential impacts of climate change on the performance of the major water projects are yet to be assessed. We used a land surface hydrological model together with a simple treatment of reservoir operation to assess the impact of hydrological change on the functions of the major water projects under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate and socio-economic scenarios. The bias-corrected climate data from global climate models under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used to drive the hydrological model. The operation of 474 major reservoirs was considered with an operating rule to generate maximum possible hydroelectricity and to fulfill water diversion demands. The future socioeconomic conditions, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), were used to estimate the water requirement and leverage the water diversion. The modeling results suggest that climate change would have negative impacts on hydropower production and water supply reliability in China. This research highlights the need to evaluate the performance change of existing water infrastructures and to develop adaptation strategy in sustainable water management in a changing environment.

  2. Air Pollution and Climate Change Health Impact Assessment. The ACHIA Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change may affect human health via interactions with air pollutants such as ozone and PM2.5. These air pollutants are linked to climate because they can be both affected by and have effects on climate. In coming decades, substantial, cost-effective improvements in public health may be achieved with well-planned strategies to mitigate climate impacts while also reducing health effects of ozone and PM2.5. Climate mitigation actions affect greenhouse pollutant emissions, including methane and black carbon, but also may affect other key air pollution precursors such as NOx, CO, and SOx. To better understand the potential of such strategies, studies are needed that assess possible future health impacts under alternative assumptions about future emissions and climate across multiple spatial scales. The overall objective of this project is to apply state of the art climate, air quality, and health modelling tools to assess future health impacts of ozone and PM2.5 under different IPCCs scenario of climate change, focusing specifically on pollution-related health co-benefits which could be achieved under alternative climate mitigation pathways in the period 2030-2050. This question will be explored at three spatial scales: global, regional (Europe), and urban (Paris). ACHIA is comprised of an integrated set of four work packages: WP1. Global Climate and Air Pollution Impacts of Alternative Emissions Pathways; WP2. Climate and Air Quality at Regional and Urban Scales: Results for Europe and Paris; WP3. Health Impact Assessment; WP4. Dissemination, Evaluation, Management. ACHIA is designed to create an interdisciplinary approach to the impacts of climate change on health through air quality changes, and to start longer-term collaborations between communities. We expect the project to advance state of art across all WPs, with important implications for research groups around the world. A particular innovation of the project is the multi-scale aspect, i.e., the analysis

  3. Assessment of Economic and Water Quality Impacts of Land Use Change Using a Simple Bioeconomic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattarai, Gandhi; Srivastava, Puneet; Marzen, Luke; Hite, Diane; Hatch, Upton

    2008-07-01

    The objective of this study is to assess the economic and water quality impact of land use change in a small watershed in the Wiregrass region of Alabama. The study compares changes in water quality and revenue from agricultural and timber production due to changes in land use between years 1992 and 2001. The study was completed in two stages. In the first stage, a biophysical model was used to estimate the effect of land use change on nitrogen and phosphorus runoff and sediment deposition in the main channel; in the second stage, farm enterprise budgeting tools were used to estimate the economic returns for the changes in land use condition. Both biophysical and economic results are discussed, and a case for complex optimization to develop a decision support system is presented.

  4. Regional assessment of Climate change impacts in the Mediterranean: the CIRCE project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, A.

    2011-12-01

    The CIRCE project has developed for the first time an assessment of the climate change impacts in the Mediterranean area. The objectives of the project are: to predict and to quantify physical impacts of climate change in the Mediterranean area; to evaluate the consequences of climate change for the society and the economy of the populations located in the Mediterranean area; to develop an integrated approach to understand combined effects of climate change; and to identify adaptation and mitigation strategies in collaboration with regional stakeholders. The CIRCE Project, coordinated by the Instituto Nazionale di Geofisca e Vulcanologia, started on 1st April 2007 and ended in a policy conference in Rome on June 2011. CIRCE involves 64 partners from Europe, Middle East and North Africa working together to evaluate the best strategies of adaptation to the climate change in the Mediterranean basin. CIRCE wants to understand and to explain how climate will change in the Mediterranean area bringing together the natural sciences community and social community in a new integrated and comprehensive way. The project has investigated how global and Mediterranean climates interact, how the radiative properties of the atmosphere and the radiative fluxes vary, the interaction between cloudiness and aerosol, the modifications in the water cycle. Recent observed modifications in the climate variables and detected trends will be compared. The economic and social consequences of climate change are evaluated by analysing direct impacts on migration, tourism and energy markets together with indirect impacts on the economic system. CIRCE has produced results about the consequences on agriculture, forests and ecosystems, human health and air quality. The variability of extreme events in the future scenario and their impacts is also assessed. A rigorous common framework, including a set of quantitative indicators developed specifically for the Mediterranean environment was be developed

  5. Assessing impact of climate change on forest cover type shifts in Western Himalayan Eco-region

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    P.K.Joshi; Asha Rawat; Sheena Narula; Vinay Sinha

    2012-01-01

    Climate is a critical factor affecting forest ecosystems and their capacity to produce goods and services.Effects of climate change on forests depend on ecosystem-specific factors including dimensions of climate (texture,precipitation,drought,wind etc.).Available information is not sufficient to support a quantitative assessment of the ecological,social and economic consequences.The present study assessed shifts in forest cover types of Western Himalayan Eco-region (700-4500 m).100 randomly selected samples (75 for training and 25 for testing the model),genetic algorithm of rule set parameters and climatic envelopes were used to assess the distribution of five prominent forest cover types (Temperate evergreen,Tropical semi-evergreen,Temperate conifer,Subtropical conifer,and Tropical moist deciduous forests).Modelling was conducted for four different scenarios,current scenario,changed precipitation (8% increase),changed temperature (1.07℃ increase),and both changed temperature and precipitation.On increasing precipitation a downward shift in the temperate evergreen and tropical semi-evergreen was observed,while sub-tropical conifer and tropical moist-deciduous forests showed a slight upward shift and temperate conifer showed no shift.On increasing temperature,an upward shift in all forest types was observed except sub-tropical conifer forests without significant changes.When both temperature and precipitation were changed,the actual distribution was maintained and slight upward shift was observed in all the forest types except sub-tropical conifer.It is important to understand the likely impacts of the projected climate change on the forest ecosystems,so that better management and conservation strategies can be adopted for the bindiversity and forest dependent community.Knowledge of impact mechanisms also enables identification and mitigation of some of the conditions that increase vulnerability to climate change in the forest sector.

  6. Integrated assessment of climate change impact on surface runoff contamination by pesticides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagnon, Patrick; Sheedy, Claudia; Rousseau, Alain N; Bourgeois, Gaétan; Chouinard, Gérald

    2016-07-01

    Pesticide transport by surface runoff depends on climate, agricultural practices, topography, soil characteristics, crop type, and pest phenology. To accurately assess the impact of climate change, these factors must be accounted for in a single framework by integrating their interaction and uncertainty. This article presents the development and application of a framework to assess the impact of climate change on pesticide transport by surface runoff in southern Québec (Canada) for the 1981-2040 period. The crop enemies investigated were: weeds for corn (Zea mays); and for apple orchard (Malus pumila), 3 insect pests (codling moth [Cydia pomonella], plum curculio [Conotrachelus nenuphar], and apple maggot [Rhagoletis pomonella]), 2 diseases (apple scab [Venturia inaequalis], and fire blight [Erwinia amylovora]). A total of 23 climate simulations, 19 sites, and 11 active ingredients were considered. The relationship between climate and phenology was accounted for by bioclimatic models of the Computer Centre for Agricultural Pest Forecasting (CIPRA) software. Exported loads of pesticides were evaluated at the edge-of-field scale using the Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM), simulating both hydrology and chemical transport. A stochastic model was developed to account for PRZM parameter uncertainty. Results of this study indicate that for the 2011-2040 period, application dates would be advanced from 3 to 7 days on average with respect to the 1981-2010 period. However, the impact of climate change on maximum daily rainfall during the application window is not statistically significant, mainly due to the high variability of extreme rainfall events. Hence, for the studied sites and crop enemies considered, climate change impact on pesticide transported in surface runoff is not statistically significant throughout the 2011-2040 period. Integr Environ Assess Managem 2016;12:559-571. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2015; Published 2015 SETAC. PMID:26331624

  7. The Future of Hydropower: Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change, Energy Prices and New Storage Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudard, Ludovic; Madani, Kaveh; Romerio, Franco

    2016-04-01

    The future of hydropower depends on various drivers, and in particular on climate change, electricity market evolution and innovation in new storage technologies. Their impacts on the power plants' profitability can widely differ in regards of scale, timing, and probability of occurrence. In this respect, the risk should not be expressed only in terms of expected revenue, but also of uncertainty. These two aspects must be considered to assess the future of hydropower. This presentation discusses the impacts of climate change, electricity market volatility and competing energy storage's technologies and quantifies them in terms of annual revenue. Our simulations integrate a glacio-hydrological model (GERM) with various electricity market data and models (mean reversion and jump diffusion). The medium (2020-50) and long-term (2070-2100) are considered thanks to various greenhouse gas scenarios (A1B, A2 and RCP3PD) and the stochastic approach for the electricity prices. An algorithm named "threshold acceptance" is used to optimize the reservoir operations. The impacts' scale, and the related uncertainties are presented for Mauvoisin, which is a storage-hydropower plant situated in the Swiss Alps, and two generic pure pumped-storage installations, which are assessed with the prices of 17 European electricity markets. The discussion will highlight the key differences between the impacts brought about by the drivers.

  8. Methods for Assessing Uncertainties in Climate Change, Impacts and Responses (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, M. R.; Swart, R.

    2009-12-01

    Assessing the scientific uncertainties or confidence levels for the many different aspects of climate change is particularly important because of the seriousness of potential impacts and the magnitude of economic and political responses that are needed to mitigate climate change effectively. This has made the treatment of uncertainty and confidence a key feature in the assessments carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Because climate change is very much a cross-disciplinary area of science, adequately dealing with uncertainties requires recognition of their wide range and different perspectives on assessing and communicating those uncertainties. The structural differences that exist across disciplines are often embedded deeply in the corresponding literature that is used as the basis for an IPCC assessment. The assessment of climate change science by the IPCC has from its outset tried to report the levels of confidence and uncertainty in the degree of understanding in both the underlying multi-disciplinary science and in projections for future climate. The growing recognition of the seriousness of this led to the formation of a detailed approach for consistent treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (TAR) [Moss and Schneider, 2000]. However, in completing the TAR there remained some systematic differences between the disciplines raising concerns about the level of consistency. So further consideration of a systematic approach to uncertainties was undertaken for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The basis for the approach used in the AR4 was developed at an expert meeting of scientists representing many different disciplines. This led to the introduction of a broader way of addressing uncertainties in the AR4 [Manning et al., 2004] which was further refined by lengthy discussions among many IPCC Lead Authors, for over a year, resulting in a short summary of a standard approach to be followed for that

  9. Regionalisation of Hydrological Indices to Assess Land-Use Change Impacts in the Tropical Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buytaert, W.; Ochoa Tocachi, B. F.

    2014-12-01

    Andean ecosystems are major water sources for cities and communities located in the Tropical Andes; however, there is a considerable lack of knowledge about their hydrology. Two problems are especially important: (i) the lack of monitoring to assess the impacts of historical land-use and cover change and degradation (LUCCD) at catchment scale, and (ii) the high variability in climatic and hydrological conditions that complicate the evaluation of land management practices. This study analyses how a reliable LUCCD impacts assessment can be performed in an environment of high variability combined with data-scarcity and low-quality records. We use data from participatory hydrological monitoring activities in 20 catchments distributed along the tropical Andes. A set of 46 hydrological indices is calculated and regionalized by relating them to 42 physical catchment properties. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is performed to maximise available data while minimising redundancy in the sets of variables. Hydrological model parameters are constrained by estimated indices, and different behavioural predictions are assembled to provide a generalised response on which we assess LUCCD impacts. Results from this methodology show that the attributed effects of LUCCD in pair-wise catchment comparisons may be overstated or hidden by different sources of uncertainty, including measurement inaccuracies and model structural errors. We propose extrapolation and evaluation in ungauged catchments as a way to regionalize LUCCD predictions and to provide statistically significant conclusions in the Andean region. These estimations may deliver reliable knowledge to evaluate the hydrological impact of different watershed management practices.

  10. Assessments of regional climate change and its impacts in Northern Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omstedt, Anders; von Storch, Hans; Reckermann, Marcus; Quante, Markus

    2015-04-01

    Regional climate change assessments are urgently needed to complement the big picture with regional results and scenarios of higher resolution and with relevance for local decision makers and stakeholders. A new type of assessment report originated in the original BACC report of 2008 (BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea region) which has served as role model for other assessments published or in preparation. It represents an approach to assessing and making available current knowledge on regional climate change and its regional impacts on the physical, biogeochemical and biological environment (ecosystems, socio-economic sphere). Reports of this type which are available or underway are the original BACC book (2008), the second BACC book (2015), the climate report for the greater Hamburg area (2011), and the NOSCCA report (North Sea Climate Change Assessment) which is expected to be published in 2016. The assessments are produced by teams of scientists from the region, led by lead authors who recruit experts from relevant topics to contribute. The process is not externally funded and completely based on published scientific evidence, and not biased by political or economic interest groups. The BACC-type reports aim to bring together consolidated knowledge that has broad consensus in the scientific community, but also acknowledging issues for which contradicting opinions are found in the literature, so that no consensus can be reached ("consensus on dissensus"). An international steering committee is responsible for overlooking the process, and all manuscripts are anonymously peer-reviewed by independent international experts. An outstanding outreach aspect of these reports is the close collaboration with regional stakeholders (for the BACC reports: HELCOM, the intergovernmental Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission and the major regional science-policy interface in the Baltic Sea region; for the Hamburg climate report: the Hamburg city

  11. Tools for Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Wildfire Regimes in Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hety Herawati

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Fire is an intrinsic element of many forest ecosystems; it shapes their ecological processes, determines species composition and influences landscape structure. However, wildfires may: have undesirable effects on biodiversity and vegetation coverage; produce carbon emissions to the atmosphere; release smoke affecting human health; and cause loss of lives and property. There have been increasing concerns about the potential impacts of climate variability and change on forest fires. Climate change can alter factors that influence the occurrence of fire ignitions, fuel availability and fuel flammability. This review paper aims to identify tools and methods used for gathering information about the impacts of climate variability and change on forest fires, forest fuels and the probability of fires. Tools to assess the impacts of climate variability and change on forest fires include: remote sensing, dynamic global vegetation and landscape models, integrated fire-vegetation models, fire danger rating systems, empirical models and fire behavior models. This review outlines each tool in terms of its characteristics, spatial and temporal resolution, limitations and applicability of the results. To enhance and improve tool performance, each must be continuously tested in all types of forest ecosystems.

  12. Curonian Lagoon drainage basin modelling and assessment of climate change impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalja Čerkasova

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Curonian Lagoon, which is the largest European coastal lagoon with a surface area of 1578 km2 and a drainage area of 100,458 km2, is facing a severe eutrophication problem. With its increasing water management difficulties, the need for a sophisticated hydrological model of the Curonian Lagoon's drainage area arose, in order to assess possible changes resulting from local and global processes. In this study, we developed and calibrated a sophisticated hydrological model with the required accuracy, as an initial step for the future development of a modelling framework that aims to correctly predict the movement of pesticides, sediments or nutrients, and to evaluate water-management practices. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to implement a model of the study area and to assess the impact of climate-change scenarios on the run-off of the Nemunas River and the Minija River, which are located in the Curonian Lagoons drainage basin. The models calibration and validation were performed using monthly streamflow data, and evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R2 and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE. The calculated values of the R2 and NSE for the Nemunas and Minija Rivers stations were 0.81 and 0.79 for the calibration, and 0.679 and 0.602 for the validation period. Two potential climate-change scenarios were developed within the general patterns of near-term climate projections, as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report: both pessimistic (substantial changes in precipitation and temperature and optimistic (insubstantial changes in precipitation and temperature. Both simulations produce similar general patterns in river-discharge change: a strong increase (up to 22% in the winter months, especially in February, a decrease during the spring (up to 10% and summer (up to 18%, and a slight increase during the autumn (up to 10%.

  13. Assessment of climate change impacts on meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Jucar River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcos-Garcia, Patricia; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Lopez-Nicolas, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Extreme natural phenomena, and more specifically droughts, constitute a serious environmental, economic and social issue in Southern Mediterranean countries, common in the Mediterranean Spanish basins due to the high temporal and spatial rainfall variability. Drought events are characterized by their complexity, being often difficult to identify and quantify both in time and space, and an universally accepted definition does not even exist. This fact, along with future uncertainty about the duration and intensity of the phenomena on account of climate change, makes necessary increasing the knowledge about the impacts of climate change on droughts in order to design management plans and mitigation strategies. The present abstract aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on both meteorological and hydrological droughts, through the use of a generalization of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). We use the Standardized Flow Index (SFI) to assess the hydrological drought, using flow time series instead of rainfall time series. In the case of the meteorological droughts, the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) has been applied to assess the variability of temperature impacts. In order to characterize climate change impacts on droughts, we have used projections from the CORDEX project (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment). Future rainfall and temperature time series for short (2011-2040) and medium terms (2041-2070) were obtained, applying a quantile mapping method to correct the bias of these time series. Regarding the hydrological drought, the Témez hydrological model has been applied to simulate the impacts of future temperature and rainfall time series on runoff and river discharges. It is a conceptual, lumped and a few parameters hydrological model. Nevertheless, it is necessary to point out the time difference between the meteorological and the hydrological droughts. The case study is the Jucar river basin

  14. Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marten, Alex; Kopp, Robert E.; Shouse, Kate C.; Griffiths, Charles; Hodson, Elke L.; Kopits, Elizabeth; Mignone, Bryan K.; Moore, Chris; Newbold, Steve; Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Wolverton, Ann

    2013-04-01

    The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a monetized metric for evaluating the benefits associated with marginal reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. It represents the expected welfare loss from the future damages caused by the release of one tonne of CO2 in a given year, expressed in consumption equivalent terms. It is intended to be a comprehensive measure, taking into account changes in agricultural productivity, human health risks, loss of ecosystem services and biodiversity, and the frequency and severity of flooding and storms, among other possible impacts. Estimating the SCC requires long-term modeling of global economic activity, the climate system, and the linkages between the two through anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the effects of changing climatic conditions on economic activity and human well-being. The United States government currently uses the SCC in regulatory benefit-cost analyses to assess the welfare effects of changes in CO2 emissions. Consistent application of the SCC to federal rulemaking analyses began in 2009-2010 with the development of a set of global SCC estimates that employed three prominent integrated assessment models (IAMs) -- DICE, FUND, and PAGE. The U.S. government report identified a number of limitations associated with SCC estimates in general and its own assumptions in particular: an incomplete treatment of damages, including potential “catastrophic” impacts; uncertainty regarding the extrapolation of damage functions to high temperatures; incomplete treatment of adaptation and technological change; and the evaluation of uncertain outcomes in a risk-neutral fashion. External experts have identified other potential issues, including how best to model long-term socio-economic and emissions pathways, oversimplified physical climate and carbon cycle modeling within the IAMs, and an inconsistency between non-constant economic growth scenarios and constant discount rates. The U.S. government has committed

  15. Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, Melissa A.; Chen, Robert S.; Maldonado, Julie; Quattrochi, Dale

    2011-01-01

    The Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment workshop, sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for the National Climate Assessment (NCA), was held on April 28-29, 2011 at The Madison Hotel in Washington, DC. A group of 56 experts (see list in Appendix B) convened to share their experiences. Participants brought to bear a wide range of disciplinary expertise in the social and natural sciences, sector experience, and knowledge about developing and implementing indicators for a range of purposes. Participants included representatives from federal and state government, non-governmental organizations, tribes, universities, and communities. The purpose of the workshop was to assist the NCA in developing a strategic framework for climate-related physical, ecological, and socioeconomic indicators that can be easily communicated with the U.S. population and that will support monitoring, assessment, prediction, evaluation, and decision-making. The NCA indicators are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The workshop participants were asked to provide input on a number of topics, including: (1) categories of societal indicators for the NCA; (2) alternative approaches to constructing indicators and the better approaches for NCA to consider; (3) specific requirements and criteria for implementing the indicators; and (4) sources of data for and creators of such indicators. Socioeconomic indicators could include demographic, cultural, behavioral, economic, public health, and policy components relevant to impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation to climate change as well as both proactive and reactive responses to climate change. Participants provided

  16. Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment. A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change is a real and internationally recognised outcome of increased amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It will have effects over the next decades that are predictable with some level of certainty, but which will vary from place to place throughout New Zealand. The climate will also change from year to year and decade to decade due to natural processes. For example, some parts of the country often have dry summers and autumns when an El Nino climate pattern is present. Both natural fluctuations and human-induced climate changes need to be considered when developing adaptation plans and policies, rather than just 'greenhouse warming' effects on their own. Councils already address extreme weather events and climate variations as they develop plans and provide services. Climate change effects need also to be considered as part of these regulatory, assessment and planning activities. It is not necessary to develop a set of procedures for dealing separately with effects and impacts of climate change - they can be built into existing practices. Over time, climate change responses will involve iterative planning processes, keeping up-to-date with new information, monitoring changes, and reviewing the effectiveness of responses. The response to climate change involves international, national, regional, district and community consideration and action. The Guidance Manual aims to assist local government in working with its communities and making appropriate decisions.

  17. Integrated regional assessment of global climatic change. Lessons from the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper outlines the potential role integrated regional assessments of global climatic change scenarios could play in building better links between science and related policy concerns. The concept is illustrated through description of an ongoing case study from Canada-the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS). As part of the Government of Canada's Green Plan, the Global Warming Science Program includes a study of regional impacts of global warming scenarios in the Mackenzie Basin, located in northwestern Canada. The MBIS is a six-year program focussing on potential climate-induced changes in the land and water resource base, and the implications of four scenarios of global climatic change on land use and economic policies in this region. These policy issues include interjurisdictional water management, sustainability of native lifestyles, economic development opportunities (agriculture, forestry, tourism, etc.), sustainability of ecosystems and infrastructure maintenance. MBIS is due to be completed in 1997. MBIS represents an attempt to address regional impacts by incorporating a 'family of integrators' into the study framework, and by directly involving stakeholders in planning and research activities. The experience in organizing and carrying out this project may provide some lessons for others interested in organizing regional or country studies

  18. Integrated regional assessment of global climatic change: lessons from the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Stewart J.

    1996-04-01

    This paper outlines the potential role integrated regional assessments of global climatic change scenarios could play in building better links between science and related policy concerns. The concept is illustrated through description of an ongoing case study from Canada—the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS). As part of the Government of Canada's Green Plan, the Global Warming Science Program includes a study of regional impacts of global warming scenarios in the Mackenzie Basin, located in northwestern Canada. The MBIS is a six-year program focussing on potential climate-induced changes in the land and water resource base, and the implications of four scenarios of global climatic change on land use and economic policies in this region. These policy issues include interjurisdictional water management, sustainability of native lifestyles, economic development opportunities (agriculture, forestry, tourism, etc.), sustainability of ecosystems and infrastructure maintenance. MBIS is due to be completed in 1997. MBIS represents an attempt to address regional impacts by incorporating a "family of integrators" into the study framework, and by directly involving stakeholders in planning and research activities. The experience in organizing and carrying out this project may provide some lessons for others interested in organizing regional or country studies.

  19. Climate Change Impact Assessment of Dike Safety and Flood Risk in the Vidaa River System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, H.; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Larsen, J.;

    2013-01-01

    The impact of climate change on the flood risk and dike safety in the Vidaa River system, a cross-border catchment located in the southern part of Jutland, Denmark and northern Germany, is analysed. The river discharges to the Wadden Sea through a tidal sluice, and extreme water level conditions...... in the river system occur in periods of high sea water levels where the sluice is closed and increased catchment run-off take place. Climate model data from the ENSEMBLES data archive are used to assess the changes in climate variables and the resulting effect on catchment run-off. Extreme catchment run......-off is expected to increase about 8 % in 2050 and 14 % in 2100. The changes in sea water level is assessed considering climate projections of mean sea level rise, isostatic changes, and changes in storm surge statistics. At the Vidaa sluice a mean sea level rise of 0.15–0.39 m in 2050 and 0.41–1.11 m in 2010...

  20. Enhanced science-stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsson, Anna Maria; Anderbrant, Olle; Holmer, Jennie;

    2015-01-01

    modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science–stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate a...... discussion among the science–stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models....... pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science–stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact...

  1. Climate change impact assessment on hydrology of a small watershed using semi-distributed model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, Brij Kishor; Gosain, A. K.; Paul, George; Khare, Deepak

    2016-02-01

    This study is an attempt to quantify the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Armur watershed in Godavari river basin, India. A GIS-based semi-distributed hydrological model, soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) has been employed to estimate the water balance components on the basis of unique combinations of slope, soil and land cover classes for the base line (1961-1990) and future climate scenarios (2071-2100). Sensitivity analysis of the model has been performed to identify the most critical parameters of the watershed. Average monthly calibration (1987-1994) and validation (1995-2000) have been performed using the observed discharge data. Coefficient of determination (R2 ), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS) and root mean square error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the model performance. Calibrated SWAT setup has been used to evaluate the changes in water balance components of future projection over the study area. HadRM3, a regional climatic data, have been used as input of the hydrological model for climate change impact studies. In results, it was found that changes in average annual temperature (+3.25 °C), average annual rainfall (+28 %), evapotranspiration (28 %) and water yield (49 %) increased for GHG scenarios with respect to the base line scenario.

  2. Assessment of climate change impact on SOM balance with the Austrian Carbon Calculator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franko, Uwe; Gründling, Ralf; Sedy, Katrin; Zethner, Gerhard; Formayer, Herbert

    2015-04-01

    Soil organic matter (SOM) balance depends on climate and climate change due to the impact on SOM turnover conditions as well as on cropping and crop yields. The Austrian Carbon calculator (ACC) is a tool for the comparison of future land use scenarios with the current agriculture in order to identify opportunities to sustain the SOM balance. The ACC can be used in a regional mode as well as in local mode for the assessment of single farm fields. The assessment is based on the concept of Biologic Active Time (BAT). BAT is calculated based on soil data from the Austrian eBod map and climate data for past and future on a 1 km grid. The ACC was implemented for the regions Mühlviertel and Marchfeld. Crop yields are calculated based on statistics from the Austrian agricultural sub regions "Kleinproduktionsgebiet" for the most common crops. The regional scenarios consist of the abundance of crops, the part of nitrogen added as mineral fertilizer and the part of irrigation. The local soil management is calculated based on crop rotations with yields, organic amendments, irrigation and the tillage system (ploughed or not ploughed). The SOM balance is assessed with the reproduction index (REP_IX) that is calculated as the quotient from carbon reproduction (Carbon flux into SOM) and the BAT value. This way REP_IX includes the impact from management as well as from climate. If the future management will not change REP_IX the SOM balance will be the same as well. This methodology helps to adapt the management to future conditions to sustain the current SOM conditions without an absolute assessment if the current SOM state is optimal or not. The regional results of ACC will be made available as thematic maps on the project web site. For local applications farmer can use the tool to analyze their special site conditions and management plans to assess the management options under climate change conditions. The described concept can be improved if reliable information about the

  3. Assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology and water quality with a watershed modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Yuzhou; Ficklin, Darren L; Liu, Xiaomang; Zhang, Minghua

    2013-04-15

    The assessment of hydrologic responses to climate change is required in watershed management and planning to protect water resources and environmental quality. This study is designed to evaluate and enhance watershed modeling approach in characterizing climate change impacts on water supply and ecosystem stressors. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was selected as a base model, and improved for the CO2 dependence of potential evapotranspiration and stream temperature prediction. The updated model was applied to quantify the impacts of projected 21st century climate change in the northern Coastal Ranges and western Sierra Nevada, which are important water source areas and aquatic habitats of California. Evapotranspiration response to CO2 concentration varied with vegetation type. For the forest-dominated watersheds in this study, only moderate (1-3%) reductions on evapotranspiration were predicted by solely elevating CO2 concentration under emission scenarios A2 and B1. Modeling results suggested increases in annual average stream temperature proportional to the projected increases in air temperature. Although no temporal trend was confirmed for annual precipitation in California, increases of precipitation and streamflow during winter months and decreases in summers were predicted. Decreased streamflow during summertime, together with the higher projected air temperature in summer than in winter, would increase stream temperature during those months and result in unfavorable conditions for cold-water species. Compared to the present-day conditions, 30-60 more days per year were predicted with average stream temperature >20°C during 2090s. Overall, the hydrologic cycle and water quality of headwater drainage basins of California, especially their seasonality, are very sensitive to projected climate change. PMID:23467178

  4. Assessing the impact of climate change on potential evapotranspiration in Aksu River Basin

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Shouhong; LIU Suxia; MO Xingguo; SHU Chang; SUN Yang; ZHANG Chun

    2011-01-01

    Evapotranspiration is one of the key components of hydrological processes.Assessing the impact of climate factors on evapotranspiration is helpful in understanding the impact of climate change on hydrological processes.In this paper,based on the daily meteorological data from 1960 to 2007 within and around the Aksu River Basin,reference evapotranspiration (RET) was estimated with the FAO Penman-Monteith method.The temporal and spatial variations of RET were analyzed by using ARCGIS and Mann-Kendall method.Multiple Regression Analysis was employed to attribute the effects of the variations of air temperature,solar radiation,relative humidity,vapour pressure and wind speed on RET.The results showed that average annual RET in the eastern plain area of the Aksu River Basin was about 1100 mm,which was nearly twice as much as that in the western mountainous area.The trend of annual RET had significant spatial variability.Annual RET was reduced significantly in the southeastern oasis area and southwestern plain area and increased slightly in the mountain areas.The amplitude of the change of RET reached the highest in summer,contributing most of the annual change of RET.Except in some high elevation areas where relative humidity predominated the change of the RET,the variations of wind velocity predominated the changes of RET almost throughout the basin.Taking Kuqa and Ulugqat stations as an example,the variations of wind velocity accounted for more than 50% of the changes of RET.

  5. From Global Climate Model Projections to Local Impacts Assessments: Analyses in Support of Planning for Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snover, A. K.; Littell, J. S.; Mantua, N. J.; Salathe, E. P.; Hamlet, A. F.; McGuire Elsner, M.; Tohver, I.; Lee, S.

    2010-12-01

    Assessing and planning for the impacts of climate change require regionally-specific information. Information is required not only about projected changes in climate but also the resultant changes in natural and human systems at the temporal and spatial scales of management and decision making. Therefore, climate impacts assessment typically results in a series of analyses, in which relatively coarse-resolution global climate model projections of changes in regional climate are downscaled to provide appropriate input to local impacts models. This talk will describe recent examples in which coarse-resolution (~150 to 300km) GCM output was “translated” into information requested by decision makers at relatively small (watershed) and large (multi-state) scales using regional climate modeling, statistical downscaling, hydrologic modeling, and sector-specific impacts modeling. Projected changes in local air temperature, precipitation, streamflow, and stream temperature were developed to support Seattle City Light’s assessment of climate change impacts on hydroelectric operations, future electricity load, and resident fish populations. A state-wide assessment of climate impacts on eight sectors (agriculture, coasts, energy, forests, human health, hydrology and water resources, salmon, and urban stormwater infrastructure) was developed for Washington State to aid adaptation planning. Hydro-climate change scenarios for approximately 300 streamflow locations in the Columbia River basin and selected coastal drainages west of the Cascades were developed in partnership with major water management agencies in the Pacific Northwest to allow planners to consider how hydrologic changes may affect management objectives. Treatment of uncertainty in these assessments included: using “bracketing” scenarios to describe a range of impacts, using ensemble averages to characterize the central estimate of future conditions (given an emissions scenario), and explicitly assessing

  6. Climate change impacts on risks of groundwater pollution by herbicides: a regional scale assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steffens, Karin; Moeys, Julien; Lindström, Bodil; Kreuger, Jenny; Lewan, Elisabet; Jarvis, Nick

    2014-05-01

    Groundwater contributes nearly half of the Swedish drinking water supply, which therefore needs to be protected both under present and future climate conditions. Pesticides are sometimes found in Swedish groundwater in concentrations exceeding the EU-drinking water limit and thus constitute a threat. The aim of this study was to assess the present and future risks of groundwater pollution at the regional scale by currently approved herbicides. We identified representative combinations of major crop types and their specific herbicide usage (product, dose and application timing) based on long-term monitoring data from two agricultural catchments in the South-West of Sweden. All these combinations were simulated with the regional version of the pesticide fate model MACRO (called MACRO-SE) for the periods 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 for a major crop production region in South West Sweden. To represent the uncertainty in future climate data, we applied a five-member ensemble based on different climate model projections downscaled with the RCA3-model (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute). In addition to the direct impacts of changes in the climate, the risks of herbicide leaching in the future will also be affected by likely changes in weed pressure and land use and management practices (e.g. changes in crop rotations and application timings). To assess the relative importance of such factors we performed a preliminary sensitivity analysis which provided us with a hierarchical structure for constructing future herbicide use scenarios for the regional scale model runs. The regional scale analysis gave average concentrations of herbicides leaching to groundwater for a large number of combinations of soils, crops and compounds. The results showed that future scenarios for herbicide use (more autumn-sown crops, more frequent multiple applications on one crop, and a shift from grassland to arable crops such as maize) imply significantly greater risks of herbicide

  7. An assessment of climate change impacts on micro-hydropower energy recovery in water supply networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brady, Jennifer; Patil, Sopan; McNabola, Aonghus; Gallagher, John; Coughlan, Paul; Harris, Ian; Packwood, Andrew; Williams, Prysor

    2015-04-01

    Continuity of service of a high quality water supply is vital in sustaining economic and social development. However, water supply and wastewater treatment are highly energy intensive processes and the overall cost of water provision is rising rapidly due to increased energy costs, higher capital investment requirements, and more stringent regulatory compliance in terms of both national and EU legislation. Under the EU Directive 2009/28/EC, both Ireland and the UK are required to have 16% and 15% respectively of their electricity generated by renewable sources by 2020. The projected impacts of climate change, population growth and urbanisation will place additional pressures on resources, further increasing future water demand which in turn will lead to higher energy consumption. Therefore, there is a need to achieve greater efficiencies across the water industry. The implementation of micro-hydropower turbines within the water supply network has shown considerable viability for energy recovery. This is achieved by harnessing energy at points of high flow or pressure along the network which can then be utilised on site or alternatively sold to the national grid. Micro-hydropower can provide greater energy security for utilities together with a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. However, potential climate change impacts on water resources in the medium-to-long term currently act as a key barrier to industry confidence as changes in flow and pressure within the network can significantly alter the available energy for recovery. The present study aims to address these uncertainties and quantify the regional and local impacts of climate change on the viability of energy recovery across water infrastructure in Ireland and the UK. Specifically, the research focuses on assessing the potential future effects of climate change on flow rates at multiple pressure reducing valve sites along the water supply network and also in terms of flow at a number of wastewater

  8. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Demands and Crop Yields in California's Central Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tansey, M. K.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Young, C. A.; Huntington, J. L.

    2012-12-01

    Long term planning for the management of California's water resources requires assessment of the effects of future climate changes on both water supply and demand. Considerable progress has been made on the evaluation of the effects of future climate changes on water supplies but less information is available with regard to water demands. Uncertainty in future climate projections increases the difficulty of assessing climate impacts and evaluating long range adaptation strategies. Compounding the uncertainty in the future climate projections is the fact that most readily available downscaled climate projections lack sufficient meteorological information to compute evapotranspiration (ET) by the widely accepted ASCE Penman-Monteith (PM) method. This study addresses potential changes in future Central Valley water demands and crop yields by examining the effects of climate change on soil evaporation, plant transpiration, growth and yield for major types of crops grown in the Central Valley of California. Five representative climate scenarios based on 112 bias corrected spatially downscaled CMIP 3 GCM climate simulations were developed using the hybrid delta ensemble method to span a wide range future climate uncertainty. Analysis of historical California Irrigation Management Information System meteorological data was combined with several meteorological estimation methods to compute future solar radiation, wind speed and dew point temperatures corresponding to the GCM projected temperatures and precipitation. Future atmospheric CO2 concentrations corresponding to the 5 representative climate projections were developed based on weighting IPCC SRES emissions scenarios. The Land, Atmosphere, and Water Simulator (LAWS) model was used to compute ET and yield changes in the early, middle and late 21st century for 24 representative agricultural crops grown in the Sacramento, San Joaquin and Tulare Lake basins. Study results indicate that changes in ET and yield vary

  9. Adapting to climate change. Towards a European framework for action. Impact Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    the general objective of promoting adaptation is translated into this context to specific objectives i.e. of identifying priority adaptation measures and of defining an action plan for the next 4 years. It also establishes operational objectives corresponding to the key problems identified in the previous section. This impact assessment is of a qualitative nature. A first set of options is presented in Chapter 4, these refer to the overall adaptation approaches, for which a proportionate assessment of the economic, environmental and social impacts is conducted to allow a prioritisation of adaptation actions. A second set of options is presented in Chapter 5, which refers to the specific actions to be undertaken in the short term. These options are assessed with respect to the operational criteria defined in chapter 3, and with respect to subsidiarity, knowledge basis and resources aspects. Chapter 6 describes the monitoring and evaluation actions to be undertaken in priority, to allow a further review of the action framework with respect to the operational objectives defined in chapter 3. The analysis is based on the 2008 EEA/JRC/WHO report on Climate Change Impacts, and on a list of other reports and papers quoted in footnotes or detailed in an appendix, together with a glossary and a report providing detailed results on the public and stakeholder consultations on the Green Paper. Annex 1 provides further details on the framework for integrated assessment of adaptation policies, including recent estimates on adaptation costs from the literature. A more detailed analysis of climate change vulnerability, adaptation potential and the need for EU action is provided for environmental cross cutting issues (Annex 2) and at Sectoral or geographical level (Annex 3). Annex 4 provides an overview of National adaptation strategies. Annex 5 provides details on the concrete measures that have been screened for the short-term EU action plan. An executive summary is presented in a

  10. Phenology as an Integrative Science for Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weltzin, J.; Losleben, M. V.

    2007-12-01

    Phenology is the study of periodic plant and animal life cycle events and how these are influenced by seasonal and interannual variations in climate. Examples include the timing of leafing and flowering, agricultural crop stages, insect emergence, and animal migration. All of these events are sensitive measures of climatic variation and change, are relatively simple to record and understand, and are vital to both the scientific and public interest. Integration of spatially-extensive phenological data and models with both short and long-term climatic forecasts offer a powerful agent for human adaptation to ongoing and future climate change. However, a new data resource of national scale is needed to capture the valuable information potential of phenological responses to climate change; to study its nature, pace and the effects of ecosystem function; and to understand connectivity and synchrony among species. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) is being designed and organized to engage federal agencies, environmental networks and field stations, educational institutions, and mass participation by citizen scientists to create this data resource, and develop phenology research potential. This presentation illustrates the variety of source, scale, and use of phenology in assessing current and future global climate change impacts.

  11. Health impact assessment as an agent of policy change: improving the health impacts of the mayor of London's draft transport strategy

    OpenAIRE

    Mindell, J; Sheridan, L.; Joffe, M.; Samson-Barry, H.; Atkinson, S.

    2004-01-01

    Objective: To increase the positive and mitigate the negative health impacts of the mayor's draft transport strategy for London.Design: A rapid prospective health impact assessment (HIA) of the penultimate draft of the strategy, using a review commissioned by the regional director of public health; an appraisal of congestion charging; and a participatory workshop. Two audits of changes were performed to assess the impact on policy of the HIA process.Setting: Regional government policy develop...

  12. Use of RCM simulations to assess the impact of climate change on wind energy availability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pryor, S.C.; Barthelmie, Rebecca Jane

    2004-01-01

    There is considerable interest in the potential impact of climate change on the feasibility and predictability of renewable energy sources including wind energy. This report presents an application and evaluation of physical (dynamical) downscaling toolsfor examining the impact of climate change on...

  13. Modeling suspended sediment transport and assessing the impacts of climate change in a karstic Mediterranean watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nerantzaki, S D; Giannakis, G V; Efstathiou, D; Nikolaidis, N P; Sibetheros, I Α; Karatzas, G P; Zacharias, I

    2015-12-15

    Mediterranean semi-arid watersheds are characterized by a climate type with long periods of drought and infrequent but high-intensity rainfalls. These factors lead to the formation of temporary flow tributaries which present flashy hydrographs with response times ranging from minutes to hours and high erosion rates with significant sediment transport. Modeling of suspended sediment concentration in such watersheds is of utmost importance due to flash flood phenomena, during which, large quantities of sediments and pollutants are carried downstream. The aim of this study is to develop a modeling framework for suspended sediment transport in a karstic watershed and assess the impact of climate change on flow, soil erosion and sediment transport in a hydrologically complex and intensively managed Mediterranean watershed. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was coupled with a karstic flow and suspended sediment model in order to simulate the hydrology and sediment yield of the karstic springs and the whole watershed. Both daily flow data (2005-2014) and monthly sediment concentration data (2011-2014) were used for model calibration. The results showed good agreement between observed and modeled values for both flow and sediment concentration. Flash flood events account for 63-70% of the annual sediment export depending on a wet or dry year. Simulation results for a set of IPCC "A1B" climate change scenarios suggested that major decreases in surface flow (69.6%) and in the flow of the springs (76.5%) take place between the 2010-2049 and 2050-2090 time periods. An assessment of the future ecological flows revealed that the frequency of minimum flow events increases over the years. The trend of surface sediment export during these periods is also decreasing (54.5%) but the difference is not statistically significant due to the variability of the sediment. On the other hand, sediment originating from the springs is not affected significantly by climate change

  14. Assessing climate change impacts on the Iberian power system using a coupled water-power model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cardenal, Silvio Javier Pereira; Madsen, Henrik; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten;

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is expected to have a negative impact on the power system of the Iberian Peninsula; changes in river runoff are expected to reduce hydropower generation, while higher temperatures are expected to increase summer electricity demand, when water resources are already limited. However......, these impacts have not yet been evaluated at the peninsular level. We coupled a hydrological model with a power market model to study three impacts of climate change on the current Iberian power system: changes in hydropower production caused by changes in precipitation and temperature, changes in...... temporal patterns of electricity demand caused by temperature changes, and changes in irrigation water use caused by temperature and precipitation changes. A stochastic dynamic programming approach was used to develop operating rules for the integrated system given hydrological uncertainty. We found that...

  15. Developing a System of National Climate Assessment Indicators to Track Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janetos, A. C.; Kenney, M. A.; Chen, R. S.; Arndt, D.

    2012-12-01

    The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/). Part of the vision for the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process is a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information that is useful to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region. These indicators will be tracked as a part of ongoing assessment activities, with adjustments as necessary to adapt to changing conditions and understanding. The indicators will be reviewed and updated so that the system adapts to new information. The NCA indicator system is not intended to serve as a vehicle for documenting rigorous cause and effect relationships. It is reasonable, however, for it to serve as a guide to those factors that affect the evolution of variability and change in the climate system, the resources and sectors of concern that are affected by it, and how society chooses to respond. Different components of the end-to-end climate issue serve as categories within which to organize an end-to-end system of indicators: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks Atmospheric Composition Physical Climate Variability and Change Sectors and Resources of Concern Adaptation and Mitigation Responses This framing has several advantages. It can be used to identify the different components of the end-to-end climate issue that both decision-makers and researchers are interested in. It is independent of scale, and therefore allows the indicators themselves to be described at

  16. Assessment of climate change impact on water resources in the Upper Senegal basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamine Mbaye, Mamadou; Hagemann, Stefan; Haensler, Andreas; Stacke, Tobias; Thierno Gaye, Amadou

    2015-04-01

    This study assesses the potential impacts of climate change on water resources and the effect of statistical bias correction on the projected climate change signal in hydrological variables over the Upper Senegal Basin (West Africa). Original and bias corrected climate data from the regional climate model REMO were used as input for the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology-Hydrology Model (MPI-HM) to simulate river discharge, runoff, soil moisture and evapotranspiration. The results during the historical period (1971-2000) show that using the bias corrected input yields a better representation of the mean river flow regimes and the 10th and 90th percentiles of river flow at the outlet of the Upper Senegal Basin (USB). The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient is 0.92 using the bias corrected input, which demonstrates the ability of the model in simulating river flow. The percent bias of 3.88% indicates a slight overestimation of the river flow by the model using the corrected input. The evaluation demonstrates the ability of the bias correction and its necessity for the simulation of historical river regimes. As for the potential changes of hydrological variables by the end of 21st century (2071-2100), a general decrease of river discharge, runoff, actual evapotranspiration, soil moisture is found under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in all simulations. The decrease is higher under RCP8.5 with uncorrected data in the northern basin. However, there are some localized increases in some parts of the basin (e.g Guinean Highlands). The projected climate change signal of these above variables has the same spatial pattern and tendency for the uncorrected and bias corrected data although the magnitude of the corrected signal is somewhat lower than that uncorrected. Furthermore, the available water resources are projected to substantially decrease by more than -50% in the majority of the basin (especially in driest and hottest northern basin

  17. Reducing the Vulnerability of Albania's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change : Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options

    OpenAIRE

    Sutton, William R.; Srivastava, Jitendra P.; James E. Neumann; Strzępek, Kenneth M.; Droogers, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Changes in climate and their impact on agricultural systems and rural economies are already evident throughout Europe and Central Asia (ECA). Adaptation measures now in use in Albania, largely piecemeal efforts, will be insufficient to prevent impacts on agricultural production over the coming decades. There is growing interest at the country and development partner levels to have a better understanding of the exposure, sensitivities, and impacts of climate change at farm level, and to develo...

  18. Reducing the Vulnerability of Moldova's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change : Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options

    OpenAIRE

    Sutton, William R.; Srivastava, Jitendra P.; James E. Neumann; Iglesias, Ana; Boehlert, Brent B.

    2013-01-01

    Changes in climate and their impact on agricultural systems and rural economies are already evident throughout Europe and Central Asia (ECA). Adaptation measures now in use in Moldova, largely piecemeal efforts, will be insufficient to prevent impacts on agricultural production over the coming decades. There is growing interest at country and development partner levels to have a better understanding of the exposure, sensitivities, and impacts of climate change at farm level, and to develop an...

  19. Assessing the costs and market impacts of carbon sequestration, climate change, and acid rain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This thesis provides fourteen journal articles and papers. Thirteen of these papers were published in referred journals, covering environmental economics, policy modelling, policy analysis, and the physical sciences. One paper was published as a USDA Forest Service research report. The papers in the thesis are divided into three topical areas: 1) Section 2: The Economics of Carbon Sequestration. Eight papers plus Appendix A of the thesis cover the development and application of models to estimate the economic costs and management consequences of policies to sequester carbon emissions by planting trees on agricultural land in the US or through more intensive forest management. 2) Section 3: The Economics of Climate Change Damages. Two papers of the thesis cover the development of models that can be used to estimate the market and nonmarket damages associated with the impacts of climate change on water resources in the US. 3) Section 4: The Economics of Acid Rain Damages. Three papers in the thesis examine the methods that were developed to estimate the damages due to acid rain in the US by the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) and discuss more generally the role of economic policy analysis in this assessment. (EHS)

  20. Probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts on durum wheat in the Mediterranean region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Ferrise

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the availability of multi-model ensemble prediction methods has permitted a shift from a scenario-based approach to a risk-based approach in assessing the effects of climate change. This provides more useful information to decision-makers who need probability estimates to assess the seriousness of the projected impacts.

    In this study, a probabilistic framework for evaluating the risk of durum wheat yield shortfall over the Mediterranean Basin has been exploited. An artificial neural network, trained to emulate the outputs of a process-based crop growth model, has been adopted to create yield response surfaces which are then overlaid with probabilistic projections of future temperature and precipitation changes in order to estimate probabilistic projections of future yields. The risk is calculated as the relative frequency of projected yields below a selected threshold.

    In contrast to previous studies, which suggest that the beneficial effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration over the next few decades would outweigh the detrimental effects of the early stages of climatic warming and drying, the results of this study are of greater concern.

  1. Assessing climate change impacts on water resources in remote mountain regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buytaert, Wouter; De Bièvre, Bert

    2013-04-01

    From a water resources perspective, remote mountain regions are often considered as a basket case. They are often regions where poverty is often interlocked with multiple threats to water supply, data scarcity, and high uncertainties. In these environments, it is paramount to generate locally relevant knowledge about water resources and how they impact local livelihoods. This is often problematic. Existing environmental data collection tends to be geographically biased towards more densely populated regions, and prioritized towards strategic economic activities. Data may also be locked behind institutional and technological barriers. These issues create a "knowledge trap" for data-poor regions, which is especially acute in remote and hard-to-reach mountain regions. We present lessons learned from a decade of water resources research in remote mountain regions of the Andes, Africa and South Asia. We review the entire tool chain of assessing climate change impacts on water resources, including the interrogation and downscaling of global circulation models, translating climate variables in water availability and access, and assessing local vulnerability. In global circulation models, mountain regions often stand out as regions of high uncertainties and lack of agreement of future trends. This is partly a technical artifact because of the different resolution and representation of mountain topography, but it also highlights fundamental uncertainties in climate impacts on mountain climate. This problem also affects downscaling efforts, because regional climate models should be run in very high spatial resolution to resolve local gradients, which is computationally very expensive. At the same time statistical downscaling methods may fail to find significant relations between local climate properties and synoptic processes. Further uncertainties are introduced when downscaled climate variables such as precipitation and temperature are to be translated in hydrologically

  2. Impacts of Europe's changing climate. An indicator-based assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    The impacts of climate change on Europe's environment and society are shown in this report. Past trends in the climate, its current state and possible future changes are presented using 22 selected indicators. For almost all of these a clear trend exists and impacts are already being observed. The report highlights the need to develop strategies at European, national, regional and local level for adapting to climate change.

  3. Health Impacts of Climate Change in the Solomon Islands: An Assessment and Adaptation Action Plan

    OpenAIRE

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne

    2014-01-01

    The Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable to the environmental changes wrought by global climate change such as sea level rise, more frequent and intense extreme weather events and increasing temperatures. The potential biophysical changes likely to affect these countries have been identified and it is important that consideration be given to the implications of these changes on the health of their citizens. The potential health impacts of climatic changes on the population of ...

  4. Assessing the Impact of Population Growth, Climate Change, and Land Use Change on Water Resources in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, N.; Cherkauer, K. A.

    2014-12-01

    India is poised to become the most populous country in the world by 2019 and reach a population of over 2 billion by 2050 based on current growth rates. It is also a region which will be under severe socio-economic and environmental stress if mitigation efforts are not adapted. In the past 10 years the population of India has grown by an average rate of 17 million people per year. In addition to unprecedented population growth, rapid urbanization and industrialization are straining the overburdened environmental system. This rapid growth in population, urbanization and industrialized will result in increased demand for food, requiring expansion of agricultural resources. Since total agricultural land in India has been relatively constant over the past 10 years the demand for additional food has to be partly met by enhanced production on existing land. Arable land in India has declined by around 3% according to FAOSTAT while the total agricultural area under irrigation has increased by about 9% thus further straining its water resources. In addition projections for future climate indicate that India is one of the regions where water resources are expected to be negatively impacted. Total agriculture water withdrawal in India increased by approximately 18 % from 2000-2010 while the total per capita water withdrawal increased by over 9% from 2000-2010. Total freshwater withdrawal as percentage of renewable water resources was around 40% in 2010. In addition, recent mandates of biofuel policies in India are also expected to impact its water resources. The combined impact of these various factors on future water availability in India could be one of the most severe globally due its unprecedented increase in population, food production and industrialization. In this study we assess the impact of land use and climate change on water resources over southern India in the face of a growing population and interest in development of national biofuel supplies. We use

  5. Socio-economic scenarios for climate change impact assessment : a guide to their use in the UK Climate Impacts Programme

    OpenAIRE

    2001-01-01

    Enormous challenges are faced in devising socio-economic scenarios for the assessment of future impacts and there is very little experience to draw upon. Socio-economic scenarios have not been widely used within impacts studies, but this report will serve to encourage their use more widely within the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP). The aim has been to develop a scenarios framework through which stakeholders are able to reflect upon possible alternative futures and to make...

  6. Bias-correction and Spatial Disaggregation for Climate Change Impact Assessments at a basin scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyunt, Cho; Koike, Toshio; Yamamoto, Akio; Nemoto, Toshihoro; Kitsuregawa, Masaru

    2013-04-01

    Basin-scale climate change impact studies mainly rely on general circulation models (GCMs) comprising the related emission scenarios. Realistic and reliable data from GCM is crucial for national scale or basin scale impact and vulnerability assessments to build safety society under climate change. However, GCM fail to simulate regional climate features due to the imprecise parameterization schemes in atmospheric physics and coarse resolution scale. This study describes how to exclude some unsatisfactory GCMs with respect to focused basin, how to minimize the biases of GCM precipitation through statistical bias correction and how to cover spatial disaggregation scheme, a kind of downscaling, within in a basin. GCMs rejection is based on the regional climate features of seasonal evolution as a bench mark and mainly depends on spatial correlation and root mean square error of precipitation and atmospheric variables over the target region. Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and Japanese 25-uear Reanalysis Project (JRA-25) are specified as references in figuring spatial pattern and error of GCM. Statistical bias-correction scheme comprises improvements of three main flaws of GCM precipitation such as low intensity drizzled rain days with no dry day, underestimation of heavy rainfall and inter-annual variability of local climate. Biases of heavy rainfall are conducted by generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) fitting over a peak over threshold series. Frequency of rain day error is fixed by rank order statistics and seasonal variation problem is solved by using a gamma distribution fitting in each month against insi-tu stations vs. corresponding GCM grids. By implementing the proposed bias-correction technique to all insi-tu stations and their respective GCM grid, an easy and effective downscaling process for impact studies at the basin scale is accomplished. The proposed method have been examined its applicability to some of the basins in various climate

  7. Changing Arctic snow cover: A review of recent developments and assessment of future needs for observations, modelling, and impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Bokhorst, Stef; Pedersen, Stine Højlund; Brucker, Ludovic; Anisimov, Oleg; Bjerke, Jarle W.; Brown, Ross D.; Ehrich, Dorothee

    2016-01-01

    Snow is a critically important and rapidly changing feature of the Arctic. However, snow-cover and snowpack conditions change through time pose challenges for measuring and prediction of snow. Plausible scenarios of how Arctic snow cover will respond to changing Arctic climate are important for impact assessments and adaptation strategies. Although much progress has been made in understanding and predicting snow-cover changes and their multiple consequences, many uncer...

  8. Projecting Poverty at the Household Scale to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Poor People

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallegatte, S.; Rozenberg, J.

    2015-12-01

    This paper quantifies the potential impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030 and 2050, in 92 countries covering 90% of the developing world population. It accounts for the deep uncertainties that characterize future socio-economic evolutions and the lack of data regarding the condition and livelihood of poor people. It also considers many impacts of climate change, another source of uncertainty. We use a micro-simulation model based on household surveys and explore a wide range of uncertainties on future structural change, productivity growth or demographic changes. This results, for each country, in the creation of several hundred scenarios for future income growth and income distribution. We then explore the resulting space of possible futures and use scenario discovery techniques to identify the main drivers of inequalities and poverty reduction. We find that redistribution and structural change are powerful drivers of poverty and inequality reduction, except in low-income countries. In the poorest countries in Africa, reducing poverty cannot rely on redistribution but requires low population growth and productivity growth in agriculture. Once we have explored the space of possible outcomes for poverty and inequalities, we choose two representative scenarios of the best and worst cases and model the impacts of climate change in each of these two scenarios. Climate change impacts are modeled through 4 channels. First, climate change has an impact on labor productivity growth for people who work outside because of higher temperatures. Second, climate change has an impact on human capital because of more severe stunting in some places. Third, climate change has an impact on physical capital via more frequent natural disasters. Fourth, climate change has an impact on consumption because of changes in food prices. Impacts are very heterogeneous across countries and are mostly concentrated in African and South-East Asian countries. For high radiative forcing (RCP8

  9. Assessing the Impact of Policy Changes in the Icelandic Cod Fishery Using a Hybrid Simulation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sigríður Sigurðardóttir

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Most of the Icelandic cod is caught in bottom trawlers or longliners. These two fishing methods are fundamentally different and have different economic, environmental, and even social effects. In this paper we present a hybrid-simulation framework to assess the impact of changing the ratio between cod quota allocated to vessels with longlines and vessels with bottom trawls. It makes use of conventional bioeconomic models and discrete event modelling and provides a framework for simulating life cycle assessment (LCA for a cod fishery. The model consists of two submodels, a system dynamics model describing the biological aspect of the fishery and a discrete event model for fishing activities. The model was run multiple times for different quota allocation scenarios and results are presented where different scenarios are presented in the three dimensions of sustainability: environmental, social, and economic. The optimal allocation strategy depends on weighing the three different factors. The results were encouraging first-steps towards a useful modelling method but the study would benefit greatly from better data on fishing activities.

  10. The role of water reservoir operation in climate change impact assessments: expanding uncertainties and evolving tradeoffs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuliani, Matteo; Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Soncini-Sessa, Rodolfo

    2015-04-01

    Climate change and growing population are expected to severely affect freshwater availability by the end of 21th century. Although many river basins are likely to become more prone to periods of reduced water supply, risking considerable impacts on the society, the economy, and the environment, the operations of many water resource systems are still designed on the basis of the observed historical hydrologic variability. Yet, under changing hydroclimatic forcing, no guarantee exists that policies optimized over the past will not fail in coming years. This work explores the impact of projected climate change and the associated uncertainty on the policy performance for different future time horizons. A perturbed physics ensemble of projected hydroclimatic conditions based on the HadCM3 General Circulation Modelis is used to simulate the whole set of Pareto optimal policies over the different futures. The changes in the overall system performance and the evolution of each single-tradeoff are analyzed to improve our understanding of the system's vulnerabilities. The study is developed on the Red-Thai Binh River system, Vietnam. The Red River Basin is the second largest basin of Vietnam, draining an area of about 169,000 km2, and comprises three main tributaries and several reservoirs, namely SonLa and HoaBinh on the Da River, ThacBa and TuyenQuang on the Lo River. These reservoirs are regulated for maximizing hydropower production, mitigating downstream flood, primarily in Hanoi, and guaranteeing irrigation water supply to the agricultural districts in the delta. We address the challenges of the policy design problem (e.g., dimensionality of the system, number of objectives involved) by adopting the evolutionary multi-objective direct policy search (EMODPS), an approximate dynamic programming method that combines direct policy search, nonlinear approximating networks and multi-objective evolutionary algorithms to design Pareto approximate operating policies for multi

  11. Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change threatens human health and well-being in the United States. To address this growing threat, the Interagency Group on Climate Change and Human Health (CCHHG), a working group of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s (USGCRP), has developed this assessment as par...

  12. Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Stream Temperatures in the Methow River Basin, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gangopadhyay, S.; Caldwell, R. J.; Lai, Y.; Bountry, J.

    2011-12-01

    The Methow River in Washington offers prime spawning habitat for salmon and other cold-water fishes. During the summer months, low streamflows on the Methow result in cutoff side channels that limit the habitat available to these fishes. Future climate scenarios of increasing air temperature and decreasing precipitation suggest the potential for increasing loss of habitat and fish mortality as stream temperatures rise in response to lower flows and additional heating. To assess the impacts of climate change on stream temperature in the Methow River, the US Bureau of Reclamation is developing an hourly time-step, two-dimensional hydraulic model of the confluence of the Methow and Chewuch Rivers above Winthrop. The model will be coupled with a physical stream temperature model to generate spatial representations of stream conditions conducive for fish habitat. In this study, we develop a statistical framework for generating stream temperature time series from global climate model (GCM) and hydrologic model outputs. Regional observations of stream temperature and hydrometeorological conditions are used to develop statistical models of daily mean stream temperature for the Methow River at Winthrop, WA. Temperature and precipitation projections from 10 global climate models (GCMs) are coupled with the streamflow generated using the University of Washington Variable Infiltration Capacity model. The projections serve as input to the statistical models to generate daily time series of mean daily stream temperature. Since the output from the GCM, VIC, and statistical models offer only daily data, a k-nearest neighbor (k-nn) resampling technique is employed to select appropriate proportion vectors for disaggregating the Winthrop daily flow and temperature to an upstream location on each of the rivers above the confluence. Hourly proportion vectors are then used to disaggregate the daily flow and temperature to hourly values to be used in the hydraulic model. Historical

  13. Assessing the impact of landuse change, climate change and reservoirs on suspended sediment load in Da river (China-Vietnam)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Thinh, Le; Soncini, Andrea; Bocchiola, Daniele; Ranzi, Roberto; Rulli, Maria Cristina

    2016-04-01

    Sediment issues have critical implications for aquatic ecology, agriculture, water supply and river navigation. Recently, with the construction and operation of several reservoirs in Da river basin (China-Vietnam), such as Hoa Binh, Lai Chau, Son La and so on, this issue has risen high interest and concern. Reservoirs have been built to meet several important needs, including increasing energy, irrigation, and drinking water demand. However, the decision maker should pay attention to the effects on sediment load, namely trapping of sediments, reduction of sediment concentration downstream reservoirs, increasing riverbank erosion, and localized erosion nearby hydraulic structures. In addition, land use changes, and climate changes are also to be considered as causing effect on sediment erosion and transport. The aim of this work is to evaluate the effects of separate factors (reservoirs, land use change, and climate change) on sediment load in the Da river basin. To this purpose, an updated and enhanced version of the soil erosion and transport model at the catchment scale, namely DIMOSHONG_RUSLE is applied to the Da river basin. More than 50 years of monthly precipitation, runoff and suspended sediment load data are processed. Two historical (1983, 2000) land use maps were generated based on statistic data of the government. The effect of land use change, and reservoirs is assessed on the basis of trends observed in the last decades. To develop the DIMOSHONG_RUSLE model in the period 1961-1985 with land use 1983 (before Hoa Binh reservoir was constructed completely) an updated version of the parameters of the RUSLE equation is determined according to the space variability on the soil types base on experimental data. Then, using chosen optimized parameter of RUSLE, suspended sediment load for the period 1986-2005 (with the Hoa Binh reservoir built and in operation) corresponding with land use in 2000 are calculated. The results are in good agreement with observed

  14. Assessing uncertainty in climate change impacts on water resources: Bayesian neural network approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    used. The study results suggest that the BNN model can be used as an efficient hydrologic modeling tool in assessing climate change impact on water resources with uncertainty estimates using only the mean ensemble of downscaled meteorological variables along with one version of CGCM and with one selected emission scenario. Therefore, this eliminates the need of using many individual ensembles of downscaled meteorological variables, many GCMs, and many emission scenarios to capture the large range of uncertainties in the simulated flow. This contribution also makes the uncertainty estimation in hydro-climatic study relatively easy, automatic, and less demanding in term of computational and human resources. However, the uncertainty estimation capacity of the BNN model should be further investigated using other GCMs or RCMs, along with various other emission scenarios, and downscaling methods in other hydroclimatic regions. (author)

  15. Impact assessment of coastal hazards due to future changes of tropical cyclones in the North Pacific Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuhito Mori

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones generate severe hazards in the middle latitudes. A brief review and applications of dynamical and statistical downscaling of tropical cyclone (TC are described targeting extreme storm surge and storm wave hazard assessment. First, a review of the current understanding of the changes in the characteristics of TCs in the past and in the future is shown. Then, a review and ongoing research about impact assessment of tropical cyclones both dynamical downscaling and statistical model are described for Typhoon Vera in 1959 and Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Finally, several examples of impact assessment of storm surge and extreme wave changes are presented. Changes in both TC intensity and track are linked to future changes in extreme storm surge and wave climate in middle latitude.

  16. European Forests and Carbon Sequestration Services: An Economic Assessment of Climate Change Impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Ding, Helen; Nunes, Paulo A. L. D.; Sonja S. Teelucksingh

    2010-01-01

    This paper reports an original economic valuation of the impact of climate change on the provision of forest regulating services in Europe. To the authors' knowledge the current paper represents the first systematic attempt to estimate human well-being losses with respect to changes in biodiversity and forest regulating services that are directly driven by climate change. First, selected 34 European countries are grouped by their latitude intervals to capture the differentiated regional effec...

  17. Assessing the Impact of Climatic Variability and Change on Maize Production in the Midwestern USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andresen, J.; Jain, A. K.; Niyogi, D. S.; Alagarswamy, G.; Biehl, L.; Delamater, P.; Doering, O.; Elias, A.; Elmore, R.; Gramig, B.; Hart, C.; Kellner, O.; Liu, X.; Mohankumar, E.; Prokopy, L. S.; Song, C.; Todey, D.; Widhalm, M.

    2013-12-01

    Weather and climate remain among the most important uncontrollable factors in agricultural production systems. In this study, three process-based crop simulation models were used to identify the impacts of climate on the production of maize in the Midwestern U.S.A. during the past century. The 12-state region is a key global production area, responsible for more than 80% of U.S. domestic and 25% of total global production. The study is a part of the Useful to Useable (U2U) Project, a USDA NIFA-sponsored project seeking to improve the resilience and profitability of farming operations in the region amid climate variability and change. Three process-based crop simulation models were used in the study: CERES-Maize (DSSAT, Hoogenboom et al., 2012), the Hybrid-Maize model (Yang et al., 2004), and the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM, Song et al., 2013). Model validation was carried out with individual plot and county observations. The models were run with 4 to 50 km spatial resolution gridded weather data for representative soils and cultivars, 1981-2012, to examine spatial and temporal yield variability within the region. We also examined the influence of different crop models and spatial scales on regional scale yield estimation, as well as a yield gap analysis between observed and attainable yields. An additional study was carried out with the CERES-Maize model at 18 individual site locations 1901-2012 to examine longer term historical trends. For all simulations, all input variables were held constant in order to isolate the impacts of climate. In general, the model estimates were in good agreement with observed yields, especially in central sections of the region. Regionally, low precipitation and soil moisture stress were chief limitations to simulated crop yields. The study suggests that at least part of the observed yield increases in the region during recent decades have occurred as the result of wetter, less stressful growing season weather conditions.

  18. Assessing Portuguese Guadiana Basin water management impacts under climate change and paleoclimate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maia, Rodrigo; Oliveira, Bruno; Ramos, Vanessa; Brekke, Levi

    2014-05-01

    The water balance in each reservoir and the subsequent, related, water resource management decisions are, presently, highly information dependent and are therefore often limited to a reactive response (even if aimed towards preventing future issues regarding the water system). Taking advantage of the availability of scenarios for climate projections, it is now possible to estimate the likely future evolution of climate which represents an important stepping stone towards proactive, adaptative, water resource management. The purpose of the present study was to assess the potential effects of climate change in terms of temperature, precipitation, runoff and water availability/scarcity for application in water resource management decisions. The analysis here presented was applied to the Portuguese portion of the Guadiana River Basin, using a combination of observed climate and runoff data and the results of the Global Climate Models. The Guadiana River Basin was represented by its reservoirs on the Portuguese portion of the basin and, for the future period, an estimated value of the inflows originating in the Spanish part of the Basin. The change in climate was determined in terms of relative and absolute variations of climate (precipitation and temperature) and hydrology (runoff and water balance related information). Apart from the previously referred data, an hydrological model and a water management model were applied so as to obtain an extended range of data regarding runoff generation (calibrated to observed data) and water balance in the reservoirs (considering the climate change impacts in the inflows, outflows and water consumption). The water management model was defined in order to represent the reservoirs interaction including upstream to downstream discharges and water transfers. Under the present climate change context, decision-makers and stakeholders are ever more vulnerable to the uncertainties of climate. Projected climate in the Guadiana basin

  19. A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet

    2013-04-01

    Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change

  20. Assessing the impacts of climate change on river basin management: A new method with application to the Nile River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tidwell, Amy C.

    A framework is developed for the assessment of climate change impacts on water resources systems. The applied techniques include: quantifying global climate model (GCM) skill over a range of time scales; developing future climate scenarios based on GCM data that are found to skillfully represent the observed climate over an historical baseline period; and using the climate scenarios together with hydrologic and water resources models to make assessments of the potential impacts and implications of climate change on water resources systems. A statistical analysis of GCM skill in East Africa shows that temperature is well represented in the GCMs at monthly to annual time scales. Precipitation is found to be much less reliable in the models and shows skill in fewer seasons and nodes than temperature. Eight climate scenarios, stemming from three global climate models and two atmospheric emissions scenarios, project temperature increases between 2 and 5° Celsius by the year 2080. Precipitation projections vary widely across models as well as regionally. The scenarios project changes in precipitation from -38% to +42%. The climate change impact methodology is applied to the Nile River Basin. It is shown that, in spite of widely varying precipitation projections, the major sub-basins of the Nile River will experience decreases in watershed runoff under all eight climate scenarios. Detailed water resources models are employed to assess the system wide response to the climate-induced hydrologic changes. The assessments indicate that water supply deficits will emerge by 2030 and continue to grow in frequency and magnitude by 2080. Additional impacts include reservoir depletion and reduced hydropower generation. An assessment of the river system response to basin development projects, including additional water storage and wetlands water conservation, indicates that adverse climate impacts may be mitigated for 30 to 40 years. The assessments demonstrate the relevance of

  1. A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Heinke

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

  2. Assessment of climate and land use changes impacts on the rivers inflow to the Lake Baikal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurovskaia, Victoriia; Semenova, Olga; Vinogradova, Tatyana

    2016-04-01

    Baikal is the deepest lake in the world and one of the biggest reservoirs of fresh water. The aim of this research was to analyze the long-term variability of characteristics of river inflow to the Lake using the historical data and project possible changes in the face of non-stationary climate and land use based on hydrological modelling. The basin of the Lake Baikal has area about 545 000 km2, half of which is situated in Russia. It is characterized by different climate and landscape conditions with annual flow depth varying from 30 to more than 600 mm. Nowadays active development and use of natural resources as well as climate changes have a strong impact on the regime of rivers inflow to the Lake. The watersheds response caused by environmental non-stationarity can be variable and unpredictable. Therefore adequate hydrological models with robust parametrization are required for future projections. This study consisted of two parts. Initially we compiled the database of daily runoff data for about 50 gauges in the basin of the Baikal Lake with continuous period of observations 30-50 years. The data was used to assess the characteristics of river inflow to the Lake for the historical period and estimate observed changes due to current climate change. For the development of future projections we have chosen several small and middle-size representative watersheds in different parts of the Lake basin with area from 151 to 7800 km2 and various types of hydrological regime. The data base for modelling was developed which included the information about landscapes, soils, dominating hydrological processes. The hydrological model parameters for different dominant landscapes were estimated based on that information. We applied distributed process-based hydrological model Hydrograph developed in State Hydrological Institute, Russia (Vinogradov et al., 2011; Semenova et al., 2013). It describes all essential processes of land hydrological cycle including detailed algorithm

  3. Improving models to assess impacts of climate change on Mediterranean water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocha, João; Carvalho Santos, Cláudia; Keizer, Jan Jacob; Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro

    2016-04-01

    In recent decades, water availability for human consumption has faced major constraints due to increasing pollution and reduced water availability. Water resources availability can gain additional stresses and pressures in the context of potential climate change scenarios. For the last decades, the climate change paradigm has been the scope of many researchers and the focus of decision makers, policies and environmental/climate legislation. Decision-makers face a wide range of constrains, as they are forced to define new strategies that merge planning, management and climate change adaptations. In turn, decision-makers must create integrated strategies aiming at the sustainable use of resources. There are multiple uncertainties associated with climate change impact assessment and water resources. Typically, most studies have dealt with uncertainties in emission scenarios and resulting socio-economic conditions, including land-use and water use. Less frequently, studies have address the disparities between the future climates generated by climate models for the same greenhouse gas concentrations; and the uncertainties related with the limited knowledge of how watersheds work, which also limits the capacity to simulate them with models. Therefore, the objective of this study is to apply the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model to a catchment in Alentejo, southern Portugal; and to evaluate the uncertainty associated both to the calibration of hydrological models and the use of different climate change scenarios and models (a combination of 4 GCM (General Circulation Models) and 1 RCM (Regional Circulation Models) for the scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The Alentejo region is highly vulnerable to the effects of potential climate changes with particular focus on water resources availability, despite several reservoirs used for freshwater supply and agriculture irrigation (e.g. the Alqueva reservoir - the largest artificial lake of the Iberian Peninsula

  4. "CITY 2020+": assessing climate change impacts for the city of Aachen related to demographic change and health - a progress report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, C.; Balzer, C.; Buttstädt, M.; Eßer, K.; Ginski, S.; Hahmann, J.; Ketzler, G.; Klemme, M.; Kröpelin, A.; Merbitz, H.; Michael, S.; Sachsen, T.; Siuda, A.; Weishoff-Houben, M.; Brunk, M. F.; Dott, W.; Hofmeister, H.; Pfaffenbach, C.; Roll, C.; Selle, K.

    2011-09-01

    The research initiative CITY 2020+ assesses the risks and opportunities for residents in urban built environments under projected demographic and climate change for the year 2020 and beyond, using the city of Aachen as a case study. CITY 2020+ develops strategies, options and tools for planning and developing sustainable future city structures. The investigation focuses on how urban environment, political structure and residential behaviour can best be adapted, with attention to the interactions among structural, political, and sociological configurations and their impacts on human health. The interdisciplinary research is organized in three clusters. Within the first cluster, strategies of older people exposed to heat stress, and their networks as well as environmental health risks according to atmospheric conditions are examined. The second cluster addresses governance questions, urban planning and building technologies as well as spatial patterns of the urban heat island. The third cluster includes studies on air quality related to particulate matter and a historical perspective of city development concerning environmental issues and climate variability. However, it turns out that research topics that require an interdisciplinary approach are best addressed not by pre-structuring the work into related sub-projects but through combining them according to shared methodological approaches. Examples illustrating this rather practical approach within ongoing research are presented in this paper.

  5. Assessment of climate change impact on water diversion strategies of Melamchi Water Supply Project in Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, Sangam; Shrestha, Manish; Babel, Mukand S.

    2015-12-01

    This paper analyzes the climate change impact on water diversion plan of Melamchi Water Supply Project (MWSP) in Nepal. The MWSP is an interbasin water transfer project aimed at diverting water from the Melamchi River of the Indrawati River basin to Kathmandu Valley for drinking water purpose. Future temperature and precipitation of the basin were predicted using the outputs of two regional climate models (RCMs) and two general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios which were then used as inputs to Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict the water availability and evaluate the water diversion strategies in the future. The average temperature of the basin is projected to increase by 2.35 to 4.25 °C under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, by 2085s. The average precipitation in the basin is projected to increase by 6-18 % in the future. The annual water availability is projected to increase in the future; however, the variability is observed in monthly water availability in the basin. The water supply and demand scenarios of Kathmandu Valley was also examined by considering the population increase, unaccounted for water and water diversion from MWSP in the future. It is observed that even with the additional supply of water from MWSP and reduction of unaccounted for water, the Kathmandu Valley will be still under water scarcity in the future. The findings of this study can be helpful to formulate water supply and demand management strategies in Kathmandu Valley in the context of climate change in the future.

  6. Assessing the use of subgrid land model output to study impacts of land cover change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Natalie M.; Lee, Xuhui; Lawrence, Peter J.; Lawrence, David M.; Zhao, Lei

    2016-06-01

    Subgrid information from land models has the potential to be a powerful tool for investigating land-atmosphere interactions, but relatively few studies have attempted to exploit subgrid output. In this study, we modify the configuration of the Community Land Model version CLM4.5 so that each plant functional type (PFT) is assigned its own soil column. We compare subgrid and grid cell-averaged air temperature and surface energy fluxes from this modified case (PFTCOL) to a case with the default configuration—a shared soil column for all PFTs (CTRL)—and examine the difference in simulated surface air temperature between grass and tree PFTs within the same grid cells (ΔTGT). The magnitude and spatial patterns of ΔTGT from PFTCOL agree more closely with observations, ranging from -1.5 K in boreal regions to +0.6 K in the tropics. We find that the column configuration has a large effect on PFT-level energy fluxes. In the CTRL configuration, the PFT-level annual mean ground heat flux (G) differs substantially from zero. For example, at a typical tropical grid cell, the annual G is 31.8 W m-2 for the tree PFTs and -14.7 W m-2 for grass PFTs. In PFTCOL, G is always close to zero. These results suggest that care must be taken when assessing local land cover change impacts with subgrid information. For models with PFTs on separate columns, it may be possible to isolate the differences in land surface fluxes between vegetation types that would be associated with land cover change from other climate forcings and feedbacks in climate model simulations.

  7. Multi-disciplinary assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture to support adaptation decision making in developing countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki

    2016-04-01

    Many existing climate change impact studies, carried out by academic researchers, are disconnected from decision making processes of stakeholders. On the other hand many climate change adaptation projects in developing countries lack a solid evidence base of current and future climate impacts as well as vulnerabilities assessment at different scales. In order to fill this information gap, FAO has developed and implemented a tool "MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change)" in several developing countries such as Morocco, the Philippines and Peru, and recently in Malawi and Zambia. MOSAICC employs a multi-disciplinary assessment approach to addressing climate change impacts and adaptation planning in the agriculture and food security sectors, and integrates five components from different academic disciplines: 1. Statistical downscaling of climate change projections, 2. Yield simulation of major crops at regional scale under climate change, 3. Surface hydrology simulation model, 4. Macroeconomic model, and 5. Forestry model. Furthermore MOSAICC has been developed as a capacity development tool for the national scientists so that they can conduct the country assessment themselves, using their own data, and reflect the outcome into the national adaptation policies. The outputs are nation-wide coverage, disaggregated at sub-national level to support strategic planning, investments and decisions by national policy makers. MOSAICC is designed in such a way to promote stakeholders' participation and strengthen technical capacities in developing countries. The paper presents MOSAICC and projects that used MOSAICC as a tool with case studies from countries.

  8. Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on the Flood Regime in France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauquet, E.; Vidal, J.; Perrin, C.; Bourgin, P.; Chauveau, M.; Chazot, S.

    2012-12-01

    Changes in river flows are associated with different types of uncertainties, due to an imperfect knowledge of both future climate and rainfall-runoff processes. Due to computational constraints, impact and adaptation studies unfortunately cannot always afford to perform a detailed analysis of all these uncertainties. In that case, the modelling efforts have to focus on the most relevant source of uncertainty in order to provide the best estimate of the overall uncertainty. As part of the national Explore2070 project, the present study thus aims at assessing the hierarchy of uncertainties in changes on river flow extremes at the scale of France. Amongst all possible sources of uncertainties, two are here considered: (1) the uncertainty in General Circulation Model (GCM) configuration, with 7 different models that adequately sample the range of changes as projected by the GCMs used in the IPCC AR4 over France, and (2) the uncertainty in hydrological model structure, with 2 quite different models: GR4J (Perrin et al., 2003), a lumped conceptual model, and Isba-Modcou (Habets et al., 2008), a suite of a land surface scheme and a distributed hydrogeological model. The hydrological models have been run at more than 1500 locations in France over the 1961-1990 baseline period with forcings from both the Safran near-surface atmospheric reanalysis (Vidal et al., 2010) and the GCM control runs downscaled with a weather type method (Boé et al., 2006), and over the 2046-2065 period with forcings from all downscaled GCM runs under the A1B emissions scenario. Single station flood frequency analyses were performed on 405 locations with observed discharges. Using Hosking and Wallis heterogeneity measures homogeneous regions were defined. Regional flood frequency analysis has been performed. Changes in homogeneity and changes in regional growth curvehave been examined. The analysis has accounted for the performance of the two hydrological models to quantify the confidence in future

  9. Climate change adaptation impact cost assessment in France. Second phase report. September 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Firstly, this report presents the context and challenges of works dealing with climate change adaptation assessment: observations and perspectives of climate change, concepts and definitions of adaptation to climate change, adaptation within national, European and international context, objectives and organisation of the France's inter-departmental Group. It describes the chosen methodology: hypothesis, methodological tools (climate model), bibliographical tool, and heat wave counting methodology. It discusses the present results, outlines the encountered difficulties and discusses the perspectives for future work

  10. Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA. An Integrated Assessment. Part 4. Water Resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global climate change will impact the hydrologic cycle by increasing the capacity of the atmosphere to hold moisture. Anticipated impacts are generally increased evaporation at low latitudes and increased precipitation at middle and high latitudes. General Circulation Models (GCMs) used to simulate climate disagree on whether the U.S. as a whole and its constituent regions will receive more or less precipitation as global warming occurs. The impacts on specific regions will depend on changes in weather patterns and are certain to be complex. Here we apply the suite of 12 potential climate change scenarios, previously described in Part 1, to the Hydrologic Unit Model of the United States (HUMUS) to simulate water supply in the conterminous United States in reference to a baseline scenario. We examine the sufficiency of this water supply to meet changing demands of irrigated agriculture. The changes in water supply driven by changes in climate will likely be most consequential in the semi-arid western parts of the country where water yield is currently scarce and the resource is intensively managed. Changes of greater than ±50% with respect to present day water yield are projected in parts of the Midwest and Southwest U.S. Interannual variability in the water supply is likely to increase where conditions become drier and to decrease under wetter conditions

  11. A probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts on yield and nitrogen leaching from winter wheat in Denmark

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. D. Børgesen

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate change will impact agricultural production both directly and indirectly, but uncertainties related to likely impacts constrain current political decision making on adaptation. This analysis focuses on a methodology for applying probabilistic climate change projections to assess modelled wheat yields and nitrate leaching from arable land in Denmark. The probabilistic projections describe a range of possible changes in temperature and precipitation. Two methodologies to apply climate projections in impact models were tested. Method A was a straightforward correction of temperature and precipitation, where the same correction was applied to the baseline weather data for all days in the year, and method B used seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature to correct the baseline weather data. Based on climate change projections for the time span 2000 to 2100 and two soil types, the mean impact and the uncertainty of the climate change projections were analysed. Combining probability density functions of climate change projections with crop model simulations, the uncertainty and trends in nitrogen (N leaching and grain yields with climate change were quantified. The uncertainty of climate change projections was the dominating source of uncertainty in the projections of yield and N leaching, whereas the methodology to seasonally apply climate change projections had a minor effect. For most conditions, the probability of large yield reductions and large N leaching losses tracked trends in mean yields and mean N leaching. The impacts of the uncertainty in climate change were higher for loamy sandy soil than for sandy soils due to generally higher yield levels for loamy sandy soils. There were large differences between soil types in response to climate change, illustrating the importance of including soil information for regional studies of climate change impacts on cropping systems.

  12. Dynamics of productivity change in the Australian electricity industry: Assessing the impacts of electricity reform

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Australian electricity industry has undergone a significant reform, since the mid-1990s. Key changes comprised functional unbundling, market restructuring, regulatory reform, public corporatisation and privatisation. Technological development has been another indisputable constituent of these changes, in the wake of ICT revolution. The principle rationale behind these changes has been that they would improve productivity of the industry and social well-being of people. This paper examines the dynamics of productivity changes in the Australian electricity industry and conducts several hypotheses-testings to identify whether industry's efficiency measures are truly improved as a result of the reform-driven changes. Malmquist Total Factor Productivity Index approach and ANOVA are used for this purpose. The results reveal that the productivity gains in the industry have been largely driven by technological improvements and, to a lesser extent, by reform-induced comparative efficiency gains. On average at national level and for the entire industry, there are efficiency gains that, to large extents, can be attributed to functional unbundling and public corporatisation and, to a lesser extent, to market restructuring and privatisation. The results, however, reveal that the reform-driven changes have made insignificant contribution to comparative efficiency, at the level of thermal generation. - Highlights: → Dynamics of productivity changes in Australian electricity industry are examined. → Several hypotheses are also tested against reform-driven changes. → Technology impact is proved to be far larger than reform-induced impacts. → Unbundling and corporatisation had larger impacts than market restructuring and privatisation. → At thermal generation level, no reform-induced impact is encountered.

  13. Potential Evapotranspiration Methods and their Impact on the Assessment of River Basin Runoff Under Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Yates, D; Strzepek, K. M.

    1994-01-01

    The current trend in increased amounts of green house gases in the atmosphere will likely affect both precipitation and evapotranspiration, which will in turn affect the runoff response of river basins. These impacts on river basin discharge are discussed in the context of changes in evapotranspiration estimates which are found by coupling a monthly water balance model to account for changes in soil moisture and micrometerological and empirical estimates of potential evapotranspiration. The p...

  14. Heat, Human Performance, and Occupational Health: A Key Issue for the Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjellstrom, Tord; Briggs, David; Freyberg, Chris; Lemke, Bruno; Otto, Matthias; Hyatt, Olivia

    2016-01-01

    Ambient heat exposure is a well-known health hazard, which reduces human performance and work capacity at heat levels already common in tropical and subtropical areas. Various health problems have been reported. Increasing heat exposure during the hottest seasons of each year is a key feature of global climate change. Heat exhaustion and reduced human performance are often overlooked in climate change health impact analysis. Later this century, many among the four billion people who live in hot areas worldwide will experience significantly reduced work capacity owing to climate change. In some areas, 30-40% of annual daylight hours will become too hot for work to be carried out. The social and economic impacts will be considerable, with global gross domestic product (GDP) losses greater than 20% by 2100. The analysis to date is piecemeal. More analysis of climate change-related occupational health impact assessments is greatly needed. PMID:26989826

  15. The 'Hothaps' programme for assessing climate change impacts on occupational health and productivity: an invitation to carry out field studies

    OpenAIRE

    Kjellström, Tord; Gabrysch, Sabine; Lemke, Bruno; Dear, Keith

    2009-01-01

    The ‘high occupational temperature health and productivity suppression’ programme (Hothaps) is a multicentre health research and prevention programme aimed at quantifying the extent to which working people are affected by, or adapt to, heat exposure while working, and how global heating during climate change may increase such effects. The programme will produce essential new evidence for local, national and global assessment of negative impacts of climate change that have largely been overloo...

  16. The potential role of health impact assessment in tackling the complexity of climate change adaptation for health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Helen L; Proust, Katrina; Spickett, Jeffery; Capon, Anthony

    2011-12-01

    Managing an issue of the magnitude, scope and complexity of climate change is a daunting prospect, yet one which nations around the world must face. Climate change is an issue without boundaries--impacts will cut across administrative and geographical borders and be felt by every sector of society. Responses to climate change will need to employ system approaches that take into account the relationships that cross organisational and sectoral boundaries. Solutions designed in isolation from these interdependencies will be unlikely to succeed, squandering opportunities for long-term effective adaptation. Health Impact Assessment (HIA) provides a structural approach to identify, evaluate and manage health impacts of climate change that is inclusive of a wide range of stakeholders. Climate change will affect decision-making across every government level and sector and the health implications of these decisions can also be addressed with HIA. Given the nature of the issue, HIA of climate change will identify a large number of variables that influence the type and extent of health impacts and the management of these impacts. In order to implement the most effective adaptation measures, it is critica that an understanding of the interactions between these variables is developed. The outcome of HIA of climate change can therefore be strengthened by the introduction of system dynamics tools, such as causal loop diagrams, that are designed to examine interactions between variables and the resulting behaviour of complex systems. PMID:22518921

  17. Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbaspour, Karim C.; Faramarzi, Monireh; Ghasemi, Samaneh Seyed; Yang, Hong

    2009-10-01

    As water resources become further stressed due to increasing levels of societal demand, understanding the effect of climate change on various components of the water cycle is of strategic importance in management of this essential resource. In this study, we used a hydrologic model of Iran to study the impact of future climate on the country's water resources. The hydrologic model was created using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and calibrated for the period from 1980 to 2002 using daily river discharges and annual wheat yield data at a subbasin level. Future climate scenarios for periods of 2010-2040 and 2070-2100 were generated from the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM 3.1) for scenarios A1B, B1, and A2, which were downscaled for 37 climate stations across the country. The hydrologic model was then applied to these periods to analyze the effect of future climate on precipitation, blue water, green water, and yield of wheat across the country. For future scenarios we found that in general, wet regions of the country will receive more rainfall while dry regions will receive less. Analysis of daily rainfall intensities indicated more frequent and larger-intensity floods in the wet regions and more prolonged droughts in the dry regions. When aggregated to provincial levels, the differences in the predictions due to the three future scenarios were smaller than the uncertainty in the hydrologic model. However, at the subbasin level the three climate scenarios produced quite different results in the dry regions of the country, although the results in the wet regions were more or less similar.

  18. A Spatial Extrapolation Approach to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resource Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pina, J.; Tilmant, A.; Anctil, F.

    2015-12-01

    The typical approach to assess climate change impacts on water resources systems is based on a vertical integration/coupling of models: GCM models are run to project future precipitations and temperatures, which are then downscaled and used as inputs to hydrologic models whose outputs are processed by water systems models. From a decision-making point of view, this top-down vertical approach presents some challenges. For example, since the range of uncertainty that can be explored with GCM is limited, researchers are relying on ensembles to enlarge the spread, making the modeling approach even more demanding in terms of computation time and resource. When a particular water system must be analyzed, the question is to know whether this computationally intensive vertical approach is necessary in the first place or if we could extrapolate projections available in neighboring systems to feed the water system model? This would be equivalent to a horizontal approach. The proposed study addresses this question by comparing the performance of a water resource system under future climate conditions using the vertical and horizontal approaches. The methodology is illustrated with the hydropower system of the Gatineau River Basin in Quebec, Canada. Vertically obtained hydrologic projections available in those river basins are extrapolated and used as inputs to a stochastic multireservoir optimization model. Two different extrapolation techniques are tested. The first one simply relies on the ratios between the drainage areas. The second exploits the covariance structure found in historical flow data throughout the region. The analysis of the simulation results reveals that the annual and weekly energy productions of the system derived from the horizontal approach are statistically equivalent to those obtained with the vertical one, regardless of the extrapolation technique used.

  19. The use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for impact assessment of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenov, M. A.

    2009-04-01

    The IPCC 4th Assessment Report was based on large datasets of projections of future climate produced by eighteen modelling groups worldwide who performed a set of coordinated climate experiments in which numerous global climate models (GCMs) have been run for a common set of experiments and various emission scenarios. These datasets are freely available form the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (www.ipcc-data.org) and can be used by the research community to assess the impact of changing climate on various systems of interest including impacts on agricultural crops and natural ecosystems, biodiversity and plant diseases. Multi-model ensembles (MME) emphasize the uncertainty in climate predictions resulting from structural differences in the global climate model design as well as uncertainty to variations of initial conditions or model parameters. This paper describes a methodology based on a stochastic weather generator for linking MME of predictions from GCMs with process-based impact models to assess impacts of climate change on biological or ecological systems. The latest version of the LARS-WG weather generator is described which allows seamlessly generating daily site-specific climate scenarios worldwide by utilising local daily weather and MME from GCMs. Examples of impacts on wheat in Europe, based on MME, are discussed, including changes in severity of drought and heat stress around flowering.

  20. A model validation framework for climate change projection and impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Refsgaard, Jens C.; Andréassian, Vazken;

    2014-01-01

    using proxies of future conditions. In general, a model that has been setup for solving a specific problem at a particular site should be tested in order to document its predictive capability and credibility. In a climate change context such tests, often referred to as model validations tests, are......Models used for projection of climate change and its impacts are usually not validated for simulation of future climate conditions. This is a serious deficiency that introduces an unknown level of uncertainty in the projections. A framework and guiding principles are presented for testing models...... particularly challenging since the model is used for an unknown future with a climate that is significantly different from current conditions. Most model studies reported on projections of climate change and its impacts have not included formal model validation tests that address this issue. A model validation...

  1. National and regional climate change impact assessments in the forestry sector. Workshop summary and abstracts of oral and poster presentations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindner, M. [ed.

    2000-07-01

    Climate change is likely to affect forests and the forest industry during the 21{sup st} century. Different processes in forest ecosystems and the forest sector are sensitive to climate and many different projects have been conducted, in which the scale of study varied from the individual leaf to the whole globe. Several attempts have been made to link impact models (e.g., ecological and socio-economic models), and to integrate them in national or regional climate impact assessment studies. However, integration of climate impact assessments for the forestry sector is still a relatively new issue on the research agenda. From November 10 to 13, 1999 the Postdam Institue for Climate Impact Research and the European Forest Institute organised a workshop in Wenddoche near Belzig (Germany) to bring together individuals and research groups from the currently developing research community, to provide a forum for the exchange of experience, and to stimulate further research collaboration. The workshop attracted 31 scientists from 12 countries, representing a wide range of disciplines covering ecophysiology, soils, forest ecology, growth and yield, silviculture, remote sensing, forest policy, and forest economics. Several presentations investigated possible impacts of climate change on forest growth and development. A second major topic was the carbon budget and the possible contribution of forestry to carbon dioxide mitigation. The third important focus was the application of economic models to estimate socio-economic consequences of changes in forest productivity and the linkage of ecological and economic models. Non-timber forest benefits were addressed in one regional impact assessment and in two national integrated assessments from the U.S. and Germany. The latter also included social components with the involvement of stakeholders and the decision making of forest owners under global change.

  2. Assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological processes and patterns in the Spree River catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hölzel, H.; Gädeke, A.; Koch, H.; Grünewald, U.

    2012-04-01

    Nowadays, a successful river catchment planning and management should consider climate change impacts on hydrological processes and patterns. This is of particular interest for stakeholders in the Spree River catchment, which is significantly affected by long term lignite mining activities. Furthermore, the consideration of climate change impacts is essential for the development of climate change adaptation strategies, e.g. land use change. Therefore, the Innovation Network of Climate Change Adaptation Brandenburg Berlin (INKA BB), funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), was launched to reveal among others the impact of climate change on the hydrology at the regional scale. To achieve this, simulations with help of the process-based, spatially distributed Water Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM-ETH) were conducted. In a first step, a model for the Spree River catchment (up to gauge Leibsch, 4500 km2) was set up, calibrated (from 1998 to 2002), and validated (from 2002 to 2006) on measured discharge for a headwater sub-catchment (135 km2) which discharge is only minor affected by water management. To consider climate change impacts, results of the STAtistical Regional climate model STAR were used as meteorological input for hydrological modeling in a second step. From 100 available STAR-realizations, three were chosen which are closest to the median, the 10%-, and 90%-percentile of the entire number of realizations and hereafter called as moderate, dry, and wet scenario. The model period of the three scenarios spans over 10 years (from 2045 to 2054) and was compared to a 30 year period in the past (from 1961 to 1990) where measurements were used as climate input parameters (reference period). The model results show reduced precipitation (except the wet scenario), increased evapotranspiration and consequently reduced runoff in the scenarios compared to the reference period. Hence, the climate water budget decreases and hydrological patterns e

  3. A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, VULNERABILITY AND POLICY IN INDIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vijaya Gupta

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available There is considerable disagreement on the extent of the changes in the variables of climate, but is expected that these changes will lead to submergence of coastal areas, and increased severe occurrence of floods and droughts and harm productivity in agriculture, fishery, forestry, human, all converted into loss of lives and livelihood, productivity, employment opportunities, with high opportunity cost of adaptations and mitigations in India. The developing countries are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to their vast population depending on natural resources. In spite of no commitment to reduce GHGs under Kyoto protocol, India can not afford to ignore it due to its agenda of higher growth. Its concerted efforts for sustainable economic development would not only provide an insurance against the impact of climate change and increase adaptive capacity of vulnerable sectors and sections, but also lead to avoidance of binding commitment to reduce GHGs emissions in the next phase of Kyoto Protocol. This paper critically analyzes the impacts and vulnerability of Indian economy to climate change and analyzes India’s efforts in addressing and reducing the vulnerability of its natural and socioeconomic systems to climate change and enhancing the adaptive capacity of the same under uncertainty

  4. Assessing the impact of hydropower and climate change on the fish fauna in Alpine rivers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melcher, Andreas; Unfer, Guenther; Schmutz, Stefan

    2010-07-01

    Full text: Water temperature is amongst other factors a driver of fish community composition in rivers. Climate change and human pressures caused by hydropower can change the temperature regime and cause alterations of the fish fauna. In this paper we (1) use observed water temperature data from 1976 to 2005 to develop multiple linear regression models and to predict water temperature based on other abiotic parameters. Three variables, altitude, mean monthly flow rate, and distance from the source are able to describe up to 80% of the variance of mean monthly water temperatures during summer. Analyses of water temperature timelines showed a warming trend over the last 30 years. Furthermore (2), we use ecological models driven by monthly water temperature and human pressures to evaluate their impact on fish communities. We found significant correlations between human impacts and fish response. For water bodies dominated by European grayling (Thymallus thymallus), which are mainly influenced by hydropower, the typical mean water temperature for August ranges from 12 to 14 deg. C. Salmonid species are cold water species with limited tolerance against high water temperatures. Several case studies show lowered densities, biomass and a shift of the fish species composition due to hydropeaking, impoundment and the change of water temperature. Derived conclusions concerning habitat quality and in particular water temperature will provide important information for the planning of future restoration and mitigation measures in hydro morphologically impacted rivers under the respect of climate change. (Author)

  5. Assessment of climate change impacts on groundwater resources: the case study of Veneto and Friuli plain in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Critto, Andrea; Pasini, Sara; Torresan, Silvia; Rizzi, Jonathan; Zabeo, Alex; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    Climate change will have different impacts on water resources and water-dependent services worldwide. In particular, climate-related risks for groundwater and related ecosystems pose great concern to scientists and water authorities involved in the protection of these valuable resources. Research is needed to better understand how climate change will impact groundwater resources in specific regions and places and to develop predictive tools for their sustainable management, copying with the envisaged effects of global climate change and the key principles of EU water policy. Within the European project Life+ TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groundwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change), a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed in order to identify impacts from climate change on groundwater and associated ecosystems (e.g. surface waters, agricultural areas, natural environments) and to rank areas and receptors at risk in the high and middle Veneto and Friuli Plain (Italy). Based on an integrated analysis of impacts, vulnerability and risks linked to climate change at the regional scale, a RRA framework complying with the Sources-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) approach was defined. Relevant impacts on groundwater and surface waters (i.e. groundwater level variations, changes in nitrate infiltration processes, changes in water availability for irrigation) were selected and analyzed through hazard scenario, exposure, susceptibility and risk assessment. The RRA methodology used hazard scenarios constructed through global and high resolution models simulations for the 2071-2100 period, according with IPCC A1B emission scenario in order to produce useful indications for future risk prioritization and to support the addressing of adaptation measures, primarily Managed Artificial Recharge (MAR) techniques. Relevant outcomes from the described RRA application highlighted that potential climate change impacts will occur

  6. Changing Arctic Snow Cover: A Review of Recent Developments and Assessment of Future Needs for Observations, Modelling, and Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brucker, Ludovic; Anisimov, Oleg; Ehrich, Dorothee; Essery, Richard L. H.; Heilig, Achim; Johansson, Margareta; Luojus, Kari; Mariash, Heather; Rosqvist, Gunhild Ninis; Sato, Atsushi; Schneebeli, Martin; Sokolov, Aleksandr; Bokhorst, Stef; Pedersen, Stine Hojlund; Bjerke, Jarle W.; Brown, Ross D.; Ingvander, Susanne; Johansson, Cecilia; Jonsdottir, Svala Ingibjorg; Inga, Niila; Macelloni, Giovanni; McLennan, Donald; Savela, Hannele; Sokratov, Sergey A.; Terzago, Silivia; Vikhamar-Schuler, Dagrun; Williamson, Scott; Qui, Yubao; Callaghan, Terry V.

    2016-01-01

    Snow is a critically important and rapidly changing feature of the Arctic. However, snow-cover and snowpack conditions change through time pose challenges for measuring and prediction of snow. Plausible scenarios of how Arctic snow cover will respond to changing Arctic climate are important for impact assessments and adaptation strategies. Although much progress has been made in understanding and predicting snow-cover changes and their multiple consequences, many uncertainties remain. In this paper, we review advances in snow monitoring and modelling, and the impact of snow changes on ecosystems and society in Arctic regions. Interdisciplinary activities are required to resolve the current limitations on measuring and modelling snow characteristics through the cold season and at different spatial scales to assure human well-being, economic stability, and improve the ability to predict manage and adapt to natural hazards in the Arctic region.

  7. Changing Arctic snow cover: A review of recent developments and assessment of future needs for observations, modelling, and impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bokhorst, Stef; Pedersen, Stine Højlund; Brucker, Ludovic; Anisimov, Oleg; Bjerke, Jarle W; Brown, Ross D; Ehrich, Dorothee; Essery, Richard L H; Heilig, Achim; Ingvander, Susanne; Johansson, Cecilia; Johansson, Margareta; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg Svala; Inga, Niila; Luojus, Kari; Macelloni, Giovanni; Mariash, Heather; McLennan, Donald; Rosqvist, Gunhild Ninis; Sato, Atsushi; Savela, Hannele; Schneebeli, Martin; Sokolov, Aleksandr; Sokratov, Sergey A; Terzago, Silvia; Vikhamar-Schuler, Dagrun; Williamson, Scott; Qiu, Yubao; Callaghan, Terry V

    2016-09-01

    Snow is a critically important and rapidly changing feature of the Arctic. However, snow-cover and snowpack conditions change through time pose challenges for measuring and prediction of snow. Plausible scenarios of how Arctic snow cover will respond to changing Arctic climate are important for impact assessments and adaptation strategies. Although much progress has been made in understanding and predicting snow-cover changes and their multiple consequences, many uncertainties remain. In this paper, we review advances in snow monitoring and modelling, and the impact of snow changes on ecosystems and society in Arctic regions. Interdisciplinary activities are required to resolve the current limitations on measuring and modelling snow characteristics through the cold season and at different spatial scales to assure human well-being, economic stability, and improve the ability to predict manage and adapt to natural hazards in the Arctic region. PMID:26984258

  8. Induced Technological Change in a Multi-regional, Multi-sectoral Integrated Assessment Model (WIAGEM): Impact Assessment of Climate Policy Strategies

    OpenAIRE

    Kemfert, Claudia

    2004-01-01

    This paper illustrates the representation of induced technological change in the multi- regional, multi-sectoral integrated assessment model WIAGEM. The main aim of this paper is to investigate quantitatively economic impacts of climate policy measures due to induced technological changes that are considered. Improved technological innovations are triggered by increased R&D expenditures that advance energy efficiencies. Model results show that induced technological changes due to increased in...

  9. Climate change adaptation impact cost assessment in France; Evaluation du cout des impacts du changement climatique et de l'adaptation en France

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-07-01

    This document reports the works of an inter-departmental group and of sector-based and transverse groups which aimed at assessing the impacts of climate change. After a first contribution about the assessment methodology, the works of sector-based groups and transverse groups are reported. These groups are dealing with agriculture, forest, infrastructures and built environment, tourism, energy, health, water, natural risks (and insurance and adaptation to climatic change in metropolitan France), biodiversity and land. For each of them, challenges, assessment approaches, first results and perspectives are discussed

  10. The Impact of Changes to Finance-Major Assessment Structures on Student Engagement and Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burrow, Michael; McIver, Ron P.

    2012-01-01

    Analysis of assessment activities that encourage student engagement and attainment of higher-order cognitive outcomes within Bloom's Taxonomy (deep learning; Anderson & Krathwohl, 2001) supports greater use of individual and group presentations, research reports, and open-book exams. Consistent with this analysis this paper outlines changes made…

  11. Preliminary study on impact assessment of climate change on building risks induced by typhoons in Japan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nishijima, Kazuyoshi; Maruyama, Takashi; Graf, Mathias

    The present paper investigates possible impacts of the climate change on building risks caused by typhoons. The inputs to this investigation are: (1) outcomes from the numerical simulations with a Global Climate Model (GCM) developed under the framework of the KAKUSHIN program, (2) statistics...... and the future climate subject to the climate change, whereas the other inputs are utilized to develop a model for structural performance of buildings. Taking basis in these models, changes of building risks under the climate change are investigated. The result shows that the building risks slightly decrease...... on building damage in the event of Typhoon Songda, and (3) numerical simulation of the wind field induced by the typhoon Songda with the JMA Non- Hydrostatic Model (JMA-NHM). The first input is utilized to develop two sets of probabilistic typhoon models; i.e. corresponding to the current climate...

  12. Coupled water-energy modelling to assess climate change impacts on the Iberian Power System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pereira Cardenal, Silvio Javier; Madsen, H.; Riegels, N.;

    a temperature index method. The delta change approach was used to generate synthetic precipitation and temperature data based on observations (1961-1990) and three regional climate models (2036-2065, CLM, RACMO and REMO). Because modelling generation on 1000+ hydropower plants is intractable, the capacities......Water resources systems and power systems are strongly linked; water is needed for most power generation technologies, and electricity is required in every stage of water usage. In the Iberian Peninsula, climate change is expected to have a negative impact on the power system: changes in runoff...... the effects of climate change on the current Iberian power system. The Iberian power system is a competitive power market where power price is determined by power supply and demand, and which can be simulated by a market equilibrium model considering the power demand function and the installed capacities...

  13. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Antle, John

    2015-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  14. Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA. An Integrated Assessment. Part 1. Scenarios and Context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere and contribute to rising global temperatures, it is important to examine how derivative changes in climate may affect natural and managed ecosystems. In this series of papers, we study the impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources and natural ecosystems in the conterminous United States using twelve scenarios derived from General Circulation Model (GCM) projections to drive biophysical impact models. These scenarios are described in this paper. The scenarios are first put into the context of recent work on climate-change by the IPCC for the 21st century and span two levels of global-mean temperature change and three sets of spatial patterns of change derived from GCM results. In addition, the effect of either the presence or absence of a CO2 fertilization effect on vegetation is examined by using two levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration as a proxy variable. Results from three GCM experiments were used to produce different regional patterns of climate change. The three regional patterns for the conterminous United States range from: an increase in temperature above the global-mean level along with a significant decline in precipitation; temperature increases in line with the global-mean with an average increase in precipitation; and, with a sulfate aerosol effect added to in the same model, temperature increases that are lower than the global-mean. The resulting set of scenarios span a wide range of potential climate changes and allows examination of the relative importance of global-mean temperature change, regional climate patterns, aerosol cooling, and CO2 fertilization effects

  15. Macro-economic Impact Assessment of Future Changes in European Marine Ecosystem Services

    OpenAIRE

    Bosello, Francesco; DELPIAZZO, ELISA; Eboli, Fabio

    2015-01-01

    The present research has been developed within the EU FP7 VECTORS project (http://www.marine-vectors.eu/). The main scope of the project (2011-2015) has been to evaluate, from a multilateral perspective, drivers, pressures and vectors of changes in marine life of three main European seas (Baltic, Western Mediterranean, North), the mechanisms by which they do so and the impacts that they have on ecosystem structures and functioning as well as on economic activities and wellbeing. This paper de...

  16. A Europe-South America network for climate change assessment and impact studies

    OpenAIRE

    Boulanger, Jean-Philippe; Brasseur, G.; Carril, A. F.; M. Castro; Dégallier, Nicolas; Ereno, C.; Le Treut, H.; Marengo, J.A.; Menendez, C. G.; Nunez, M. N.; Penalba, O. C.; Rolla, A. L.; Rusticucci, M.; R. Terra

    2010-01-01

    The goal of the CLARIS project was to build an integrated European-South American network dedicated to promote common research strategies to observe and predict climate changes and their consequent socio-economic impacts taking into account the climate and societal peculiarities of South America. Reaching that goal placed the present network as a privileged advisor to contribute to the design of adaptation strategies in a region strongly affected by and dependent on climate variability (e. g....

  17. Spatial Rule-Based Assessment of Habitat Potential to Predict Impact of Land Use Changes on Biodiversity at Municipal Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scolozzi, Rocco; Geneletti, Davide

    2011-03-01

    In human dominated landscapes, ecosystems are under increasing pressures caused by urbanization and infrastructure development. In Alpine valleys remnant natural areas are increasingly affected by habitat fragmentation and loss. In these contexts, there is a growing risk of local extinction for wildlife populations; hence assessing the consequences on biodiversity of proposed land use changes is extremely important. The article presents a methodology to assess the impacts of land use changes on target species at a local scale. The approach relies on the application of ecological profiles of target species for habitat potential (HP) assessment, using high resolution GIS-data within a multiple level framework. The HP, in this framework, is based on a species-specific assessment of the suitability of a site, as well of surrounding areas. This assessment is performed through spatial rules, structured as sets of queries on landscape objects. We show that by considering spatial dependencies in habitat assessment it is possible to perform better quantification of impacts of local-level land use changes on habitats.

  18. Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Tourism-Dependent Communities in the Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, N.; Day, J.; Sydnor, S.; Cherkauer, K. A.

    2013-12-01

    Tourism is an essential element of the Laurentian Great Lakes economy as well as one of the sectors expected to be affected most by climate change, particularly through extreme weather events. While studies looking at climate change impacts on the Great Lakes tourism, specifically, are limited, the results of other studies suggest that both summer tourism activities, such as beach-going, and winter tourism activities, such as skiing and snowboarding, could feel the effects of a changing climate. The purpose of this study was to determine how existing data and models might be used to predict the potential impacts of climate change on tourism-dependent communities at the local scale. Future climate projections and variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model simulations based on historical climate data were used to quantify trends in environmental metrics with a potential influence on tourism for several tourism-dependent Great Lakes communities. The results of this research show that the potential impacts of climate change vary at the local scale and could require different adaptation strategies for different communities and for different sectors of the tourism industry. For example, communities in the northern parts of the Great Lakes may find benefit in a greater diversification of their tourism industries, given that warming temperatures could be beneficial for summer tourism activities, while communities in the southern parts of the Great Lakes may have to find other ways to cope with climate conditions that are less conducive to summer tourism activities. Stakeholder input could also help inform the process of producing scientific information that is useful to policymakers when it comes to tourism sector-related decision making.

  19. Interdisciplinary assessment of sea-level rise and climate change impacts on the lower Nile delta, Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sušnik, Janez; Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia, Lydia S; Baumert, Niklas; Kloos, Julia; Renaud, Fabrice G; La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Mabrouk, Badr; Savić, Dragan A; Kapelan, Zoran; Ludwig, Ralf; Fischer, Georg; Roson, Roberto; Zografos, Christos

    2015-01-15

    CLImate-induced changes on WAter and SECurity (CLIWASEC) was a cluster of three complementary EC-FP7 projects assessing climate-change impacts throughout the Mediterranean on: hydrological cycles (CLIMB - CLimate-Induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean Basins); water security (WASSERMed - Water Availability and Security in Southern EuRope and the Mediterranean) and human security connected with possible hydro-climatic conflicts (CLICO - CLImate change hydro-COnflicts and human security). The Nile delta case study was common between the projects. CLIWASEC created an integrated forum for modelling and monitoring to understand potential impacts across sectors. This paper summarises key results from an integrated assessment of potential challenges to water-related security issues, focusing on expected sea-level rise impacts by the middle of the century. We use this common focus to illustrate the added value of project clustering. CLIWASEC pursued multidisciplinary research by adopting a single research objective: sea-level rise related water security threats, resulting in a more holistic view of problems and potential solutions. In fragmenting research, policy-makers can fail to understand how multiple issues can materialize from one driver. By combining efforts, an integrated assessment of water security threats in the lower Nile is formulated, offering policy-makers a clearer picture of inter-related issues to society and environment. The main issues identified by each project (land subsidence, saline intrusion - CLIMB; water supply overexploitation, land loss - WASSERMed; employment and housing security - CLICO), are in fact related. Water overexploitation is exacerbating land subsidence and saline intrusion, impacting on employment and placing additional pressure on remaining agricultural land and the underdeveloped housing market. All these have wider implications for regional development. This richer understanding could be critical in making better

  20. Assessment of climate change impact on hydrological extremes in two source regions of the Nile River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. T. Taye

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The potential impact of climate change was investigated on the hydrological extremes of Nyando River and Lake Tana catchments, which are located in two source regions of the Nile River basin. Climate change scenarios were developed for rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (ETo, considering 17 General Circulation Model (GCM simulations to better understand the range of possible future change. They were constructed by transferring the extracted climate change signals to the observed series using a frequency perturbation downscaling approach, which accounts for the changes in rainfall extremes. Projected changes under two future SRES emission scenarios A1B and B1 for the 2050s were considered. Two conceptual hydrological models were calibrated and used for the impact assessment. Their difference in simulating the flows under future climate scenarios was also investigated.

    The results reveal increasing mean runoff and extreme peak flows for Nyando catchment for the 2050s while unclear trend is observed for Lake Tana catchment for mean volumes and high/low flows. The hydrological models for Lake Tana catchment, however, performed better in simulating the hydrological regimes than for Nyando, which obviously also induces a difference in the reliability of the extreme future projections for both catchments. The unclear impact result for Lake Tana catchment implies that the GCM uncertainty is more important for explaining the unclear trend than the hydrological models uncertainty. Nevertheless, to have a better understanding of future impact, hydrological models need to be verified for their credibility of simulating extreme flows.

  1. A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Sperotto, Anna; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-03-01

    This paper presents a review of existing multi-risk assessment concepts and tools applied by organisations and projects providing the basis for the development of a multi-risk methodology in a climate change perspective. Relevant initiatives were developed for the assessment of multiple natural hazards (e.g. floods, storm surges, droughts) affecting the same area in a defined timeframe (e.g. year, season, decade). Major research efforts were focused on the identification and aggregation of multiple hazard types (e.g. independent, correlated, cascading hazards) by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Moreover, several methodologies aim to assess the vulnerability of multiple targets to specific natural hazards by means of vulnerability functions and indicators at the regional and local scale. The overall results of the review show that multi-risk approaches do not consider the effects of climate change and mostly rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities, no changes among exposed elements). A relevant challenge is therefore to develop comprehensive formal approaches for the assessment of different climate-induced hazards and risks, including dynamic exposure and vulnerability. This requires the selection and aggregation of suitable hazard and vulnerability metrics to make a synthesis of information about multiple climate impacts, the spatial analysis and ranking of risks, including their visualization and communication to end-users. To face these issues, climate impact assessors should develop cross-sectorial collaborations among different expertise (e.g. modellers, natural scientists, economists) integrating information on climate change scenarios with sectorial climate impact assessment, towards the development of a comprehensive multi-risk assessment process. PMID:26704454

  2. A regional level multi-hazard impact assessment based on indicators of climatic and non-climatic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lung, T.; Lavalle, C.; Hiederer, R.; Bouwer, L. M.

    2012-04-01

    Over the coming decades, Europe is expected to be confronted with major impacts due to anthropogenic climate change, with an increase in the frequency of some extreme weather events. Across the different European regions, impacts and vulnerability will vary in intensity and effect, according to changes in exposure to specific climatic stimuli and changes in non-climatic factors (sensitivity and vulnerability). To better prioritise adaptation strategies, there is a need for quantitative pan-European regional level assessments that are systematic and comparable across multiple hydro-meteorological hazards. This study presents an indicator-based impact assessment framework at NUTS-2 level that quantifies potential regional changes related to four weather-driven hazards: heat stress, river flood risk, drought proneness, and forest fire danger. This is done by comparing the current (baseline) situation with two scenarios, for the periods 2011-2040 and 2041-2070. For each hazard individually, the method integrates outcomes of a set of coherent high-resolution regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project, based on the SRES A1B emission scenario, with current and projected non-climatic parameters such as land use and socio-economic factors, in order to quantify shifts in potential regional climate change impacts. In addition, an index of regional adaptive capacity is developed and compared with the impact indicators to identify regions of potentially high vulnerability. The results project strongest increases for heat stress, in particular in central Europe, and for forest fire danger, which not only rises considerably in the southern European regions but also shows a northwards shift. For drought proneness and flood risk the sign and magnitude of change vary across regions. An overall assessment combining all four hazards shows a clear trend towards increasing impact from climate-related natural hazards for most parts of Europe in the coming decades. The most

  3. Key landscape ecology metrics for assessing climate change adaptation options: rate of change and patchiness of impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Hoffman, Laura; Breshears, David D.; Allen, Craig D.; Miller, Marc L.

    2013-01-01

    Under a changing climate, devising strategies to help stakeholders adapt to alterations to ecosystems and their services is of utmost importance. In western North America, diminished snowpack and river flows are causing relatively gradual, homogeneous (system-wide) changes in ecosystems and services. In addition, increased climate variability is also accelerating the incidence of abrupt and patchy disturbances such as fires, floods and droughts. This paper posits that two key variables often considered in landscape ecology—the rate of change and the degree of patchiness of change—can aid in developing climate change adaptation strategies. We use two examples from the “borderland” region of the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. In piñon-juniper woodland die-offs that occurred in the southwestern United States during the 2000s, ecosystem services suddenly crashed in some parts of the system while remaining unaffected in other locations. The precise timing and location of die-offs was uncertain. On the other hand, slower, homogeneous change, such as the expected declines in water supply to the Colorado River delta, will likely impact the entire ecosystem, with ecosystem services everywhere in the delta subject to alteration, and all users likely exposed. The rapidity and spatial heterogeneity of faster, patchy climate change exemplified by tree die-off suggests that decision-makers and local stakeholders would be wise to operate under a Rawlsian “veil of ignorance,” and implement adaptation strategies that allow ecosystem service users to equitably share the risk of sudden loss of ecosystem services before actual ecosystem changes occur. On the other hand, in the case of slower, homogeneous, system-wide impacts to ecosystem services as exemplified by the Colorado River delta, adaptation strategies can be implemented after the changes begin, but will require a fundamental rethinking of how ecosystems and services are used and valued. In

  4. Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles; Ponnusamy, Paramasivam; Rasnayaka, Herath; Singh, Harbir

    2015-01-01

    The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-series of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developed, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for agricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have reduced the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the cross-cutting themes in AgMIP's work

  5. How the biodiversity sciences may aid biological tools and ecological engineering to assess the impact of climatic changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morand, S; Guégan, J-F

    2008-08-01

    This paper addresses how climate changes interact with other global changes caused by humans (habitat fragmentation, changes in land use, bioinvasions) to affect biodiversity. Changes in biodiversity at all levels (genetic, population and community) affect the functioning of ecosystems, in particular host-pathogen interactions, with major consequences in health ecology (emergence and re-emergence; the evolution of virulence and resistance). In this paper, the authors demonstrate that the biodiversity sciences, epidemiological theory and evolutionary ecology are indispensable in assessing the impact of climate changes, and also for modelling the evolution of host-pathogen interactions in a changing environment. The next step is to apply health ecology to the science of ecological engineering. PMID:18819665

  6. Evaluating the variability in surface water reservoir planning characteristics during climate change impacts assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soundharajan, Bankaru-Swamy; Adeloye, Adebayo J.; Remesan, Renji

    2016-07-01

    This study employed a Monte-Carlo simulation approach to characterise the uncertainties in climate change induced variations in storage requirements and performance (reliability (time- and volume-based), resilience, vulnerability and sustainability) of surface water reservoirs. Using a calibrated rainfall-runoff (R-R) model, the baseline runoff scenario was first simulated. The R-R inputs (rainfall and temperature) were then perturbed using plausible delta-changes to produce simulated climate change runoff scenarios. Stochastic models of the runoff were developed and used to generate ensembles of both the current and climate-change-perturbed future runoff scenarios. The resulting runoff ensembles were used to force simulation models of the behaviour of the reservoir to produce 'populations' of required reservoir storage capacity to meet demands, and the performance. Comparing these parameters between the current and the perturbed provided the population of climate change effects which was then analysed to determine the variability in the impacts. The methodology was applied to the Pong reservoir on the Beas River in northern India. The reservoir serves irrigation and hydropower needs and the hydrology of the catchment is highly influenced by Himalayan seasonal snow and glaciers, and Monsoon rainfall, both of which are predicted to change due to climate change. The results show that required reservoir capacity is highly variable with a coefficient of variation (CV) as high as 0.3 as the future climate becomes drier. Of the performance indices, the vulnerability recorded the highest variability (CV up to 0.5) while the volume-based reliability was the least variable. Such variabilities or uncertainties will, no doubt, complicate the development of climate change adaptation measures; however, knowledge of their sheer magnitudes as obtained in this study will help in the formulation of appropriate policy and technical interventions for sustaining and possibly enhancing

  7. Use of RCM simulations to assess the impact of climate change on wind energy availability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There is considerable interest in the potential impact of climate change on the feasibility and predictability of renewable energy sources including wind energy. This report presents an application and evaluation of physical (dynamical) downscaling tools for examining the impact of climate change on near-surface flow and hence wind energy density across northern Europe. It is shown that: Simulated wind fields using the Rossby Centre coupled Regional Climate Model (RCM) (RCAO) during the control period (1961-1990) exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in in situ observations and reanalysis data products. The differences between near-surface wind speed and direction calculated for the control run (January 1, 1961 December 30, 1990) based on boundary conditions derived from two Global Climate Models (GCM): HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 are comparable to changes in the climate change projection period (January 1, 2071 December 30, 2100) for two emission scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). These differences are also of similar magnitude to differences between the RCAO fields in the control period and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The RCAO simulations for the 2071-2100 period indicate evidence for a small increase in the annual wind energy resource over northern Europe between the control run (January 1, 1961 December 30, 1990) and climate change projection period (January 1, 2071 December 30, 2100), and for more substantial increases in mean wind speed and energy density during the winter season (December February), but the uncertainty of these prognoses remains high. (au)

  8. Climate for Culture: assessing the impact of climate change on the future indoor climate in historic buildings using simulations

    OpenAIRE

    Leissner, J; Kilian, R; Kotova, Lola; Jacob, Daniela; Mikolajewicz, U; Brostrom, T; Ashley-Smith, J; Schellen, HL Henk; Martens, MHJ Marco; Schijndel, van, AWM Jos; Antretter, F.; Winkler, M.; Bertolin, C.; Camuffo, D; Simeunovic, Goran

    2015-01-01

    Background The present study reports results from the large-scale integrated EU project "Climate for Culture". The full name, or title, of the project is Climate for Culture: damage risk assessment, economic impact and mitigation strategies for sustainable preservation of cultural heritage in times of climate change. This paper focusses on implementing high resolution regional climate models together with new building simulation tools in order to predict future outdoor and indoor climate cond...

  9. Climate for Culture: assessing the impact of climate change on the future indoor climate in historic buildings using simulations

    OpenAIRE

    Leissner, J; Kilian, R; Kotova, L.; D. Jacob; Mikolajewicz, U; Broström, T; Ashley-Smith, J; Schellen, H.; Martens, M.; van Schijndel, J.; Antretter, F.; Winkler, M.; Bertolin, C.; Camuffo, D; Simeunovic, G.

    2015-01-01

    The present study reports results from the large-scale integrated EU project “Climate for Culture”. The full name, or title, of the project is Climate for Culture: damage risk assessment, economic impact and mitigation strategies for sustainable preservation of cultural heritage in times of climate change. This paper focusses on implementing high resolution regional climate models together with new building simulation tools in order to predict future outdoor and indoor climate conditions. The...

  10. Vulnerability to the impact of climate change on renewable groundwater resources: a global-scale assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change will lead to significant changes of groundwater recharge and thus renewable groundwater resources. Using the global water resources and use model WaterGAP, the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge and the number of affected people was computed for four climate scenarios by two climate models. Vulnerability of humans to decreased groundwater resources depends on both the degree of decrease and the sensitivity of the human system to the decrease. For each grid cell, a sensitivity index composed of a water scarcity indicator, an indicator for dependence of water supply on groundwater and the Human Development Index was quantified. Combining per cent groundwater recharge decrease with the sensitivity index, global maps of vulnerability to the impact of decreased groundwater recharge in the 2050s were derived. In the A2 (B2) emissions scenario, 18.4-19.3% (16.1-18.1%) of the global population of 10.7 (9.1) billion would be affected by groundwater recharge decreases of at least 10%, and 4.8-5.7% (3.8-3.8%) of the global population would be in the two highest vulnerability classes. The highest vulnerabilities are found at the North African rim of the Mediterranean Sea, in southwestern Africa, in northeastern Brazil and in the central Andes, which are areas of moderate to high sensitivity. For most of the areas with high population density and high sensitivity, model results indicate that groundwater recharge is unlikely to decrease by more than 10% until the 2050s. However, a fifth to a third of the population may be affected by a groundwater recharge increase of more than 10%, with negative impacts in the case of shallow water tables. The spatial distribution of vulnerability, even at the continental scale, differs more strongly between the two climate models than between the two emissions scenarios.

  11. A simulation tool for integrating climate change and Canadian surface transport : towards assessing impacts and adaptations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Extreme weather events resulting from climate change will have a significant impact of the performance of the Canadian transportation system. This presentation described a simulation tool designed to investigate the potential ramifications of future climate change on transportation and the economy. The CLIMATE-C tool was designed to simulate future weather scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050 using weather parameters obtained from a global general circulation model. The model accounted for linkages between weather, transportation, and economic systems. A random utility-based multi-regional input-output model was used to predict inter-regional trade flows by truck and rail in Canada. Simulated weather scenarios were used to describe predicted changes in demographic, social, economic, technological and environmental developments to 2100. Various changes in population and economic growth were considered. Six additional scenarios were formulated to consider moderate and high rainfall events, moderate, high and extreme snowfall, and cold temperatures. Results of the preliminary analysis indicated that the model is sensitive to changes in weather events. Future research is needed to evaluate future weather scenarios and analyze weather-transport data in order to quantify travel speed reduction parameters. tabs., figs.

  12. Assessing impact of climate change on season length in Karnataka for IPCC SRES scenarios

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Aavudai Anandhi

    2010-08-01

    Changes in seasons and season length are an indicator, as well as an effect, of climate change. Seasonal change profoundly affects the balance of life in ecosystems and impacts essential human activities such as agriculture and irrigation. This study investigates the uncertainty of season length in Karnataka state, India, due to the choice of scenarios, season type and number of seasons. Based on the type of season, the monthly sequences of variables (predictors) were selected from datasets of NCEP and Canadian General Circulation Model (CGCM3). Seasonal stratifications were carried out on the selected predictors using K-means clustering technique. The results of cluster analysis revealed increase in average, wet season length in A2, A1B and B1 scenarios towards the end of 21st century. The increase in season length was higher for A2 scenario whereas it was the least for B1 scenario. COMMIT scenario did not show any change in season length. However, no change in average warm and cold season length was observed across the four scenarios considered. The number of seasons was increased from 2 to 5. The results of the analysis revealed that no distinct cluster could be obtained when the number of seasons was increased beyond three.

  13. The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Channing Arndt

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available We adopt a multi-sectoral approach and consider the full range of climate projections. Biophysical damages are translated into economic costs using a dynamic economy-wide model. Our results indicate that the negative impacts on agriculture and roads are modest to 2050. Larger costs are caused by rising sea levels and cyclone strikes. Overall, climate change is likely to reduce national income by between one and two percent by 2050 (relative to a historical baseline. Damages double under more extreme projections. Our findings suggest that there are net benefits from selected pre-emptive actions though careful consideration of opportunity costs is required.

  14. Ports and Economic Impact: main changes, assessment approaches and distribution disequilibrium

    OpenAIRE

    Benacchio, Marco; Musso, Enrico

    2001-01-01

    It is nowadays widely accepted that the positive economic impact of ports tends to move away from a local environment (the earlier 'port city') to a much wider and often international one, including the consignors/consignees. It is thus the purpose of this paper to take a fresh look at the current changes in a ports1 production junction, based on a territorial cost-benefit analysis, i.e. taking into account that: - The port industry is no longer a labour intensive one; - The port indust...

  15. Coupled Ground- and Space-Based Assessment of Regional Inundation Dynamics to Assess Impact of Local and Upstream Changes on Evaporation in Tropical Wetlands

    OpenAIRE

    Julia Schwerdtfeger; Sérgio Wagner Gripp da Silveira; Peter Zeilhofer; Markus Weiler

    2015-01-01

    Modifications of human land use and climate change are known to be a threat for the health and proper functioning of tropical wetlands. They interfere with the seasonal flood pulse, which is seen as the most important driver for biodiversity and directly controls evaporation. In order to investigate the impact of local and upstream changes on wetlands, a regional assessment of evaporation is crucial but challenging in such often remote and poorly gauged ecosystems. Evaporation is the major w...

  16. Impacts of Past Land Use Changes on Water Resources: An Analog for Assessing Effects of Proposed Bioenergy Crops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, B. R.; Schilling, K.; Young, M.; Duncan, I. J.; Gerbens-Leenes, P.

    2011-12-01

    Interest is increasing in renewable energy sources, including bioenergy. However, potential impacts of bioenergy crops on water resources need to be better understood before large scale expansion occurs. This study evaluates the potential for using past land use change impacts on water resources as an analog for assessing future bioenergy crop effects. Impacts were assessed for two cases and methods: (1) changes from perennial to annual crops in the Midwest U.S. using stream hydrograph separation; and (2) changes from perennial grasses and shrubs to annual crops in the Southwest U.S. using unsaturated zone and groundwater data. Results from the Midwest show that expanding the soybean production area by 80,000 km2 increased stream flow by 32%, based on data from Keokuk station in the Upper Mississippi River Basin. Using these relationships, further expansion of annual corn production for biofuels by 10 - 50% would increase streamflow by up to 40%, with related increases in nitrate, phosphate, and sediment pollutant transport to the Gulf of Mexico. The changes in water partitioning are attributed to reducing evapotranspiration, increasing recharge and baseflow discharge to streams. Similar results were found in the southwestern US, where changes from native perennial grasses and shrubs to annual crops increased recharge from ~0.0 to 24 mm/yr, raising water tables by up to 7 m in some regions and flushing accumulated salts into underlying aquifers in the southern High Plains. The changes in water partitioning are related to changes in rooting depth from deep rooted native vegetation to shallow rooted crops and growing season length. Further expansion of annual bioenergy crops, such as changes from Conservation Reserve Program to corn in the Midwest, will continue the trajectory of reducing ET, thereby increasing recharge and baseflow to streams and nutrient export. We hypothesize that changing bioenergy crops from annual crops to perennial grasses, such as switchgrass

  17. A preliminary impact assessment of typhoon wind risk of residential buildings in Japan under future climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nishijima, Kazuyoshi; Maruyama, Takashi; Graf, Mathias

    2012-01-01

    This paper performs a quantitative impact assessment of the climate change on typhoon wind risk, focusing on residential buildings in Japan. The risk is assessed based on (1) the typhoon event set extracted from the simulation by the super-high resolution atmospheric general circulation model...... are that in the future (2075–2099) at most locations of Japan: (1) extreme wind events (10-minute sustained wind speed exceeding 30 m/s) are more likely to occur; (2) the median of the annual maximum wind speed decreases; (3) the expected number of damaged residential buildings decreases, assuming that the profile...

  18. Vulnerability Assessment of Environmental and Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Al Jabal Al Akhdar, Sultanate of Oman

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Saif Al-Kalbani

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and its consequences present one of the most important threats to water resources systems which are vulnerable to such changes due to their limited adaptive capacity. Water resources in arid mountain regions, such as Al Jabal Al Akhdar; northern Sultanate of Oman, are vulnerable to the potential adverse impacts of environmental and climate change. Besides climatic change, current demographic trends, economic development and related land use changes are exerting pressures and have direct impacts on increasing demands for water resources and their vulnerability. In this study, vulnerability assessment was carried out using guidelines prepared by United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP and Peking University to evaluate four components of the water resource system: water resources stress, water development pressure, ecological health, and management capacity. The calculated vulnerability index (VI was high, indicating that the water resources are experiencing levels of stress. Ecosystem deterioration was the dominant parameter and management capacity was the dominant category driving the vulnerability on water resources. The vulnerability assessment will support policy and decision makers in evaluating options to modify existing policies. It will also help in developing long-term strategic plans for climate change mitigation and adaptation measures and implement effective policies for sustainable water resources management, and therefore the sustenance of human wellbeing in the region.

  19. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Flood Event Types in Two Alpine Catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turkington, T.; Breinl, K.; Jetten, V.; Ettema, J.

    2014-12-01

    A variety of different climate factors can trigger floods: intense rainfall, long lasting rainfall or extreme amount of snowmelt. As a result, changes in climate extremes can affect both the frequency of floods, but also other factors such as seasonality and duration, all of which have implications on local social and ecological systems. Therefore, we present a technique for examining projected changes in flood events types, focusing on antecedent meteorological conditions. Floods (characterized by the historical 10 and 25-year return level discharge) are clustered into causal types based on rainfall, antecedent precipitation and temperature. A multi-site weather generator coupled with a conceptual rainfall-runoff model is employed to increase the number of flood events. Quantile mapping of precipitation and temperature projections is then used in the development of future discharge. The technique is applied to two different catchments in the European Alps: a smaller catchment in the southern French Alps, dominated by rain-on-snow floods, and a larger catchment in Austria, with more floods during summer. The results show that changes in precipitation and temperature can alter not only the frequency, but also the distribution of flood event types in the future. Furthermore, assessing changes in flood event types provides information about why the frequency of floods in an alpine catchment may change, even if the projections themselves are highly uncertain.

  20. A framework for the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts on water-related activities at the basin scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anghileri, D.; Pianosi, F.; Soncini-Sessa, R.

    2011-06-01

    While quantitative assessment of the climate change impact on hydrology at the basin scale is quite addressed in the literature, extension of quantitative analysis to impact on the ecological, economic and social sphere is still limited, although well recognized as a key issue to support water resource planning and promote public participation. In this paper we propose a framework for assessing climate change impact on water-related activities at the basin scale. The specific features of our approach are that: (i) the impact quantification is based on a set of performance indicators defined together with the stakeholders, thus explicitly taking into account the water-users preferences; (ii) the management policies are obtained by optimal control techniques, linking stakeholder expectations and decision-making; (iii) the multi-objective nature of the management problem is fully preserved by simulating a set of Pareto-optimal management policies, which allows for evaluating not only variations in the indicator values but also tradeoffs among conflicting objectives. The framework is demonstrated by application to a real world case study, Lake Como basin (Italy). We show that the most conflicting water-related activities within the basin (i.e. hydropower production and agriculture) are likely to be negatively impacted by climate change. We discuss the robustness of the estimated impacts to the climate natural variability and the approximations in modeling the physical system and the socio-economic system, and perform an uncertainty analysis of several sources of uncertainty. We demonstrate that the contribution of natural climate uncertainty is rather remarkable and that, among different modelling uncertainty sources, the one from climate modeling is very significant.

  1. Climate change impact assessment on flow regime by incorporating spatial correlation and scenario uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.

    2016-04-01

    Flooding risk is increasing in many parts of the world and may worsen under climate change conditions. The accuracy of predicting flooding risk relies on reasonable projection of meteorological data (especially rainfall) at the local scale. The current statistical downscaling approaches face the difficulty of projecting multi-site climate information for future conditions while conserving spatial information. This study presents a combined Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) stochastic weather generator and multi-site rainfall simulator RainSim (CLWRS) approach to investigate flow regimes under future conditions in the Kootenay Watershed, Canada. To understand the uncertainty effect stemming from different scenarios, the climate output is fed into a hydrologic model. The results showed different variation trends of annual peak flows (in 2080-2099) based on different climate change scenarios and demonstrated that the hydrological impact would be driven by the interaction between snowmelt and peak flows. The proposed CLWRS approach is useful where there is a need for projection of potential climate change scenarios.

  2. Implications of NARCCAP on the Likelihood of Regional Climate Change and an Integrated U.S. Water-Impact Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlosser, C. A.; Gao, X.; Blanc, E.; Strzepek, K. M.; Monier, E.

    2012-12-01

    In order for regional, integrated impact and adaptation assessments to be regarded as risk-based approaches, they must encompass to the fullest extent possible, the range of regional and global climate-change uncertainties as well as consistent economic pathways that underlie them. As such, the computational burden on any probabilistic construction (i.e. frequency distribution) that quantify these uncertainties is substantial when considering the large ensembles required from multiple, regional climate models. Thus, hybrid or statistical methods that encapsulate salient trend signals from regional climate models yet avoid the exhaustive amount of explicit simulations but remain consistent with the socio-economic pathway under which it is forced, would be highly desirable. We therefore present a hybrid frequency distribution (HFD) approach that extends the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework to provide probabilistic projections of regional climate changes. This procedure constructs meta-ensembles of the regional hydro-climate, combining projections from the MIT IGSM that represent global-scale uncertainties with regionally resolved climate-change kernel (CCK) patterns from archived climate-model projections. The approach has been extended to the climate-model outputs of the North American Regional Climate Change Project (NARCCAP). Specifically, we compare the NARCCAP CCKs to those of CMIP3, CMIP5, as well as the corresponding climate models that force the NARCCAP models. Many of the NARCCAP CCKs retain the large-scale patterns of their climate-model counterparts. However, regional and seasonal exceptions are also seen and carry with them important important climate-impact consequences. We then assess the consequences of the NARCCAP HFDs to a U.S. water-impact, climate-change assessment performed by the Water Resource System (WRS) of the IGSM.

  3. Assessment of malaria transmission changes in Africa, due to the climate impact of land use change using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 earth system models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Adrian M; Caporaso, Luca

    2016-01-01

    Using mathematical modelling tools, we assessed the potential for land use change (LUC) associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change low- and high-end emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) to impact malaria transmission in Africa. To drive a spatially explicit, dynamical malaria model, data from the four available earth system models (ESMs) that contributed to the LUC experiment of the Fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project are used. Despite the limited size of the ESM ensemble, stark differences in the assessment of how LUC can impact climate are revealed. In three out of four ESMs, the impact of LUC on precipitation and temperature over the next century is limited, resulting in no significant change in malaria transmission. However, in one ESM, LUC leads to increases in precipitation under scenario RCP2.6, and increases in temperature in areas of land use conversion to farmland under both scenarios. The result is a more intense transmission and longer transmission seasons in the southeast of the continent, most notably in Mozambique and southern Tanzania. In contrast, warming associated with LUC in the Sahel region reduces risk in this model, as temperatures are already above the 25-30°C threshold at which transmission peaks. The differences between the ESMs emphasise the uncertainty in such assessments. It is also recalled that the modelling framework is unable to adequately represent local-scale changes in climate due to LUC, which some field studies indicate could be significant. PMID:27063732

  4. Impact assessment of emissions stabilization scenarios with and without induced technological change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main aim of this paper is to investigate quantitatively the economic impacts of emissions stabilization scenarios with and without the inclusion of induced technological change (ITC). Improved technological innovations are triggered by increased research and development (R and D) expenditures that advance energy efficiencies. Model results show that ITCs due to increased investment in R and D reduce compliance costs. Although R and D expenditures compete with other investment expenditures, we find that increased R and D expenditures improve energy efficiency, which substantially lowers abatement costs. Without the inclusion of ITC, emissions targets are primarily reached by declines in production, resulting in overall welfare reductions. With the inclusion of ITCs, emissions mitigation can result in fewer production and GDP drawbacks

  5. Assessment of impact of climate change and adaptation strategies on maize production in Uganda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kikoyo, Duncan A.; Nobert, Joel

    2016-06-01

    Globally, various climatic studies have estimated a reduction of crop yields due to changes in surface temperature and precipitation especially for the developing countries which is heavily dependent on agriculture and lacks resources to counter the negative effects of climate change. Uganda's economy and the wellbeing of its populace depend on rain-fed agriculture which is susceptible to climate change. This study quantified the impacts of climate change and variability in Uganda and how coping strategies can enhance crop production against climate change and/or variability. The study used statistical methods to establish various climate change and variability indicators across the country, and uses the FAO AquaCrop model to simulate yields under possible future climate scenarios with and without adaptation strategies. Maize, the most widely grown crop was used for the study. Meteorological, soil and crop data were collected for various districts representing the maize growing ecological zones in the country. Based on this study, it was found that temperatures have increased by up to 1 °C across much of Uganda since the 1970s, with rates of warming around 0.3 °C per decade across the country. High altitude, low rainfall regions experience the highest level of warming, with over 0.5 °C/decade recorded in Kasese. Rainfall is variable and does not follow a specific significant increasing or decreasing trend. For both future climate scenarios, Maize yields will reduce in excess of 4.7% for the fast warming-low rainfall climates but increase on average by 3.5% for slow warming-high rainfall regions, by 2050. Improved soil fertility can improve yields by over 50% while mulching and use of surface water management practices improve yields by single digit percentages. The use of fertilizer application needs to go hand in hand with other water management strategies since more yields as a result of the improved soil fertility leads to increased water stress, especially

  6. Assessing potential impacts of climate change and variability on the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Basin: A binational approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The potential impacts of climate change and variability on the Great Lakes environment are serious and complex. The Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Basin is home to 42.5 million US and Canadian citizens and is the industrial and commercial heartland of both nations. The region is rich in human and natural resources, with diverse economic activities and substantial infrastructure which would be affected by major shifts in climate. For example, water level changes could affect wetland distribution and functioning; reductions in streamflow would alter assimilative capacities while warmer water temperatures would influence spring and fall turnover and incidence of anoxia. A binational program has been initiated to conduct interdisciplinary, integrated impact assessments for the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River Basin. The goal of this program is to undertake interdisciplinary, integrated studies to improve the understanding of the complex interactions between climate, the environment, and socioeconomic systems in order to develop informed regional adaptation responses

  7. Assessment of the Impacts of Compensation Flow Changes Upon Instream Habitat Using 2D Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mould, D. C.; Lane, S. N.; Christmas, M.

    2004-05-01

    Many millstone-grit rivers in northern England are impounded. In such cases the water company in the area has to release compensation flows from the reservoirs, traditionally to meet industrial needs: these flows are rarely set with ecology in mind; and have commonly involved constant flow. Dam overtopping may create spates, but spawning in many fish species is prompted by a spate flow in the early autumn when dams are rarely full enough to overtop. Such flows are important for fine sediment flushing and controlling the wetted useable area for spawning. Classical physical habitat modelling for instream habitat has been largely reliant upon 1D approaches, such as the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology (IFIM). Here we use a 2D finite element model (FESWMS), to simulate changes in instream habitat with variations in the compensation flow regimes. The spatial resolution of 2D models can be adapted to the scale of fish habitats so providing better representation of the reach-scale flow processes (such as slack water in the margins, wetting and drying) than the 1D case. The model is applied to the Rivers Rivelin and Loxley in Sheffield, Northern England. At the confluence of the two rivers, the compensation flow level is set at 30.6 Thousand Cubic Metres per Day (TCMD). Due to historical reasons, the compensation is not divided equally, as the Loxley receives 28 TCMD whilst the Rivelin receives only 2.6 TCMD. The model is used to simulate a transfer of 6 TCMD from the Loxley to the Rivelin. After validation, model predictions are combined with available habitat requirement data (e.g. velocity and depth needs) to develop an index of change in habitat suitability in terms of first order variables (e.g. velocity, depth and wetted useable area). This suggests that the change in compensation may significantly improve instream ecology in relation to macroinvertebrates, brown trout (Salmo trutta) and bullhead (Cottus gobio) in the Rivelin without causing detrimental impacts

  8. Toward a comprehensive assessment of the combined impacts of climate change and groundwater pumping on catchment dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sapriza-Azuri, Gonzalo; Jódar, Jorge; Carrera, Jesús; Gupta, Hoshin V.

    2015-10-01

    Under increasing anthropogenic pressure, it is becoming increasingly important to evaluate the combined hydrologic effects of climate change and groundwater overexploitation. Climate change impact studies traditionally rely on scenario projections, provided by General Circulation Models (GCMs) that are transformed via downscaling and bias correction and used to drive hydrological models. The potential impacts of climate change are then assessed by comparing the historical and projected hydrological responses. This approach assumes that downscaled GCM simulations can function as surrogates for the corresponding actual values (represented by observations or reanalysis fields), which implies a kind of stochastic equivalence. In this work we apply the concept of Stochastic Equivalence to evaluate the validity of the response of a hydrological model driven by GCM simulations that are downscaled to generate high-resolution spatially distributed rainfall fields. We then use this approach to assess the combined effects of projected climate change and groundwater pumping in the Upper Guadiana basin in Spain. Our results suggest that very significant decreases in availability of water for the future can be expected throughout the year, but most notably during a 3-month longer, extended hotter and drier summer season; overall, the soil moisture and actual evapotranspiration are reduced by 20%, recharge is reduced by 50%, and aquifer related responses (runoff generation, groundwater-surface water exchange, wetlands and streamflow) are reduced by 60%.

  9. Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Marine Ecosystem in the South Sea of Korea II

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Se-Jong Ju

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, ocean warming and acidification are accelerating as a result of the continuous increase in atmospheric CO2. This may affect the function and structure of marine ecosystems. Recently, changes in marine environments/ecosystems have been observed (increase in SST, decrease in the pH of seawater, northward expansion of subtropical species, etc. in Korean waters. However, we still don’t understand well how climate change affects these changes and what can be expected in the future. In order to answer these questions with regard to Korean waters, the project named ‘Assessment of the impact of climate change on marine ecosystems in the South Sea of Korea’ has been supported for 5 years by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries and is scheduled to end in 2013. This project should provide valuable information on the current status of marine environments/ ecosystems in the South Sea of Korea and help establish the methodology and observation/prediction systems to better understand and predict the impact of climate/marine environment changes on the structure and function of marine ecosystems. This special issue contains 5 research and a review articles that highlight the studies carried out during 2012-2013 through this project

  10. A global and spatially explicit assessment of climate change impacts on crop production and consumptive water use.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junguo Liu

    Full Text Available Food security and water scarcity have become two major concerns for future human's sustainable development, particularly in the context of climate change. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on the production and water use of major cereal crops on a global scale with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes for the 2030s (short term and the 2090s (long term, respectively. Our findings show that impact uncertainties are higher on larger spatial scales (e.g., global and continental but lower on smaller spatial scales (e.g., national and grid cell. Such patterns allow decision makers and investors to take adaptive measures without being puzzled by a highly uncertain future at the global level. Short-term gains in crop production from climate change are projected for many regions, particularly in African countries, but the gains will mostly vanish and turn to losses in the long run. Irrigation dependence in crop production is projected to increase in general. However, several water poor regions will rely less heavily on irrigation, conducive to alleviating regional water scarcity. The heterogeneity of spatial patterns and the non-linearity of temporal changes of the impacts call for site-specific adaptive measures with perspectives of reducing short- and long-term risks of future food and water security.

  11. Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Mountain Hydrology : Development of a Methodology through a Case Study in the Andes of Peru

    OpenAIRE

    Vergara, Walter; Deeb, Alejandro; Leino, Irene; Kitoh, Akio; Escobar, Marisa

    2011-01-01

    The objective of study of the impacts of climate change on mountain hydrology is to develop a methodology to assess the net impacts of climate change on the hydrological response in mountainous regions. This is done through a case study in the Peruvian Andes. There are few examples of predictions of the impact of climate change on resource availability and even fewer examples of the applic...

  12. Integrated assessment of the impact of climate and land use changes on groundwater quantity and quality in Mancha Oriental (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Peña-Haro, S.; Garcia-Prats, A.; Mocholi-Almudever, A. F.; Henriquez-Dole, L.; Macian-Sorribes, H.; Lopez-Nicolas, A.

    2014-09-01

    Climate and land use change (global change) impacts on groundwater systems cannot be studied in isolation, as various and complex interactions in the hydrological cycle take part. Land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes have a great impact on the water cycle and contaminant production and transport. Groundwater flow and storage are changing in response not only to climatic changes but also to human impacts on land uses and demands (global change). Changes in future climate and land uses will alter the hydrologic cycles and subsequently impact the quantity and quality of regional water systems. Predicting the behavior of recharge and discharge conditions under future climatic and land use changes is essential for integrated water management and adaptation. In the Mancha Oriental system in Spain, in the last decades the transformation from dry to irrigated lands has led to a significant drop of the groundwater table in one of the largest groundwater bodies in Spain, with the consequent effect on stream-aquifer interaction in the connected Jucar River. Streamflow depletion is compromising the related ecosystems and the supply to the downstream demands, provoking a complex management issue. The intense use of fertilizer in agriculture is also leading to locally high groundwater nitrate concentrations. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of water availability and water quality is essential for a proper management of the system. In this paper we analyze the potential impact of climate and land use change in the system by using an integrated modelling framework consisting of the sequentially coupling of a watershed agriculturally-based hydrological model (SWAT) with the ground-water model MODFLOW and mass-transport model MT3D. SWAT model outputs (mainly groundwater recharge and pumping, considering new irrigation needs under changing ET and precipitation) are used as MODFLOW inputs to simulate changes in groundwater flow and storage and impacts on stream

  13. Impacts of climate change on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services: technical input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staudinger, Michelle D.; Grimm, Nancy B.; Staudt, Amanda; Carter, Shawn L.; Stuart, F. Stuart, III; Kareiva, Peter; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Stein, Bruce A.

    2012-01-01

    Ecosystems, and the biodiversity and services they support, are intrinsically dependent on climate. During the twentieth century, climate change has had documented impacts on ecological systems, and impacts are expected to increase as climate change continues and perhaps even accelerates. This technical input to the National Climate Assessment synthesizes our scientific understanding of the way climate change is affecting biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and what strategies might be employed to decrease current and future risks. Building on past assessments of how climate change and other stressors are affecting ecosystems in the United States and around the world, we approach the subject from several different perspectives. First, we review the observed and projected impacts on biodiversity, with a focus on genes, species, and assemblages of species. Next, we examine how climate change is affecting ecosystem structural elements—such as biomass, architecture, and heterogeneity—and functions—specifically, as related to the fluxes of energy and matter. People experience climate change impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems as changes in ecosystem services; people depend on ecosystems for resources that are harvested, their role in regulating the movement of materials and disturbances, and their recreational, cultural, and aesthetic value. Thus, we review newly emerging research to determine how human activities and a changing climate are likely to alter the delivery of these ecosystem services. This technical input also examines two cross-cutting topics. First, we recognize that climate change is happening against the backdrop of a wide range of other environmental and anthropogenic stressors, many of which have caused dramatic ecosystem degradation already. This broader range of stressors interacts with climate change, and complicates our abilities to predict and manage the impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and the services they support. The

  14. Assessment of impacts of agricultural and climate change scenarios on watershed water quantity and quality, and crop production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teshager, Awoke D.; Gassman, Philip W.; Schoof, Justin T.; Secchi, Silvia

    2016-08-01

    Modeling impacts of agricultural scenarios and climate change on surface water quantity and quality provides useful information for planning effective water, environmental and land use policies. Despite the significant impacts of agriculture on water quantity and quality, limited literature exists that describes the combined impacts of agricultural land use change and climate change on future bioenergy crop yields and watershed hydrology. In this study, the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) eco-hydrological model was used to model the combined impacts of five agricultural land use change scenarios and three downscaled climate pathways (representative concentration pathways, RCPs) that were created from an ensemble of eight atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). These scenarios were implemented in a well-calibrated SWAT model for the intensively farmed and tiled Raccoon River watershed (RRW) located in western Iowa. The scenarios were executed for the historical baseline, early century, mid-century and late century periods. The results indicate that historical and more corn intensive agricultural scenarios with higher CO2 emissions consistently result in more water in the streams and greater water quality problems, especially late in the 21st century. Planting more switchgrass, on the other hand, results in less water in the streams and water quality improvements relative to the baseline. For all given agricultural landscapes simulated, all flow, sediment and nutrient outputs increase from early-to-late century periods for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. We also find that corn and switchgrass yields are negatively impacted under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the mid- and late 21st century.

  15. A Review of Assessment and Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change Impacts on the Coastal Areas in South China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DU Yao-Dong; CHENG Xu-Hua; WANG Xian-Wei; AI Hui; DUAN Hai-Lai; HE Jian; WU Xiao-Xuan

    2013-01-01

    This paper reviews assessment of climate change impacts on economy, society and ecological environment in the coastal areas of South China based on published literatures;it also proposes suitable adaptation strategies and counter-measures. Review shows that climate change has resulted in sea level rise in the coastal areas of South China, increasing the occurrence and intensity of storm surges, aggravating the influence of saltwater intrusion, coastal erosion, urban drainage and flood control, threatening the coastal facility and infrastructures, inundating lowland areas, offsetting mudflat silting, and degrading mangroves and coral reef ecosystem. Therefore, in order to reduce the adverse effects of climate change and to support the sustainable development in the coastal areas of South China, it is critical to improve the monitoring and early warning system, enhance prevention criteria, fortify coastal protection engineering, strengthen salt tide prevention, and reinforce the ecological restoration and protection.

  16. Using and Applying Focus Groups in Climate Change Impact Assessment Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLorme, D.; Hagen, S.

    2011-12-01

    The focus group social science research method is an efficient and flexible data collection tool with broad applicability across disciplines and contexts. Through group dynamics, this interviewing approach offers strengths in gathering candid, spontaneous comments and detailed firsthand descriptions from stakeholders' perspectives. The method, which can stand alone or be integrated with other research frameworks, has much potential for helping to manage complex issues of global change. For optimal outcomes, however, careful planning and procedures are paramount. This presentation offers guidance in this regard via examples, tips, and lessons learned from a multidisciplinary NOAA-funded project: Ecological Effects of Sea Level Rise in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (EESLR-NGOM). Focus groups are a key component of the EESLR-NGOM project as they are being used to better understand coastal resource managers' operational and information behaviors and needs regarding sea level rise (SLR), erosion, and hurricane storm surge impact; to learn how to best develop and translate the project's expected scientific results into straightforward, useful, and readily-disseminated products; and to gather outreach recommendations. As part of an EESLR-NGOM project kickoff workshop, 12 coastal resource managers participated voluntarily in a focus group. A summary of findings and illustrative participant quotations will be included in the presentation. The initial focus group was productive in gaining insights into challenges and opportunities associated with a climate change project such as the EESLR-NGOM. It highlighted the importance of considering the interrelationships of natural and built environments and new avenues for resilience and sustainability. The coastal resource managers are not only end-users but also opinion leaders in their local communities who will diffuse this information widely through their networks of other potential end-users. Engaging coastal resource managers in

  17. Comparative Case Study as Social Impact Assessment: Possibilities and Limitations for Anticipating Social Change in the Far North

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asselin, Jodie; Parkins, John R.

    2009-01-01

    Social impact assessment (SIA) is increasingly an accepted component of environmental impact assessment and project evaluation throughout North America. Tools and methodologies utilized to conduct such assessments vary greatly and continue to evolve with time and experience. This paper follows the evolution of case study methods in social impact…

  18. An assessment of the impact of climate change effects on forest land cover based on satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoran, Maria A.; Dida, Adrian I.

    2015-10-01

    Climate change affects forest both directly and indirectly through disturbances, that are a natural and integral part of forest ecosystems, and climate change can alter these natural interactions. Forest vegetation characteristics, including land cover and phenology, affect processes such as water cycle, absorption and re-emission of solar radiation, momentum transfer, carbon cycle, and latent and sensible heat fluxes. The climate system responds in complex ways to changes in forcing that may be natural or human-induced. Drastic climate change over the last decades has greatly increased the importance of forest land cover changes monitoring through time-series satellite data. Satellite based derived biophysical parameters for assessment of climate impacts on forest vegetation have to meet particularly high quality requirements. Forest vegetation and climate interact through a series of complex feedbacks, which are not very well understood. Satellite remote sensing is suited tool to assess the main phenological events based on tracking significant changes on temporal trajectories of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Land Surface Temperature (LST) and GPP (Gross Primary Production), which are key biophysical variables for studying land surface processes and surface-atmosphere interactions for forested areas. The aim of this paper was to investigate their pattern dynamics due to the impact of climate variations on a periurban forest Branesti-Cernica, placed to the North-Eastern part of Bucharest city, Romania. The forest vegetation analysis was based on derived biogeophysical parameters from time-series satellite remote sensing MODIS Terra/Aqua and NOAA AVHRR data and in-situ monitoring ground data (as air temperature, aerosols distribution, relative humidity, etc.) over 2002-2014 period.

  19. Assessing impacts of hydropower schemes in upland rivers and sensitivity to hydrological change: new modelling tools for evaluating environmental flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tetzlaff, D.; Geris, J.; Seibert, J.; Vis, M.; Soulsby, C.

    2013-12-01

    Upland river systems provide a suite of critical ecosystem services, such as the provision of high quality downstream water supplies and the maintenance of in-stream habitats. Environmental legislation dictates that exploiting the hydro-power potential of such headwaters requires that the ecological status of in-stream habitats is maintained. This requires that decision makers have adequate scientific understanding of natural flow regimes, the nature of regulation impacts, and the sensitivity of managed systems to future change. This is often limited by a lack of adequate pre- regulation data. Here we present a new modelling tool that can be used in data sparse mountain river ecosystems to assess current impacts, evaluate sensitivity to future change and provide a basis for discussing the development of new adaptive management strategies. The HBV rainfall-runoff model was adapted to incorporate regulation components (reservoirs, water transfers), and applied to the heavily regulated River Lyon (391 km2), Scotland, UK. The Lyon has long been subjected to hydropower generation, which is supported by several river impoundments and a complex network of inter- and intra-catchment water transfers, and there are concerns that these are affecting high conservation status freshwater populations of Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar). In the absence of adequate pre-regulation data, the model was used to characterise the natural flow regime, assess the regulation impacts, and explore sensitivities to hydrological changes in water management. Overall, changes following regulation in the Lyon include decreases in inter-and intra annual variability of all parameters of the flow regime in terms of magnitude, frequency, duration and timing that are important in various life stages of the Atlantic Salmon. Although these effects are most pronounced closest to the impoundments, the regulation affects the regime for a considerable distance downstream. Sensitivity tests showed that a more

  20. Integrated impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Porter, A.L.; Rossini, F.A.

    1981-12-01

    Impact assessment studies the effects on society of proposed projects, programs, or policies. It is perhaps best known in the forms of technology assessment and environmental-impact assessment. The institutionalization of impact assessment, the principal features of impact assessment and its performance are discussed here, keynoting interdisciplinarity as a critical factor. Substantial progress in performance has occurred over the past decade, especially in environmental and social analyses, pointing to some critical issues for the decade ahead. Within studies, integration across disciplinary components, between contributions from professionals and parties-at-interest, and between producers and users must be improved. Across studies, practitioners of impact assessment need to intercommunicate to advance the state of their art. 38 references.

  1. Assessing the likely impacts of climate change on pests, diseases and weeds of Australia's temperate plantation forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Full text: Australia's plantation forests presently cover some 163 milllion hectares, accounting for 105 billion tonnes of carbon. Plantation forests also account for approximately two thirds of the A$18 billion value of turnover in Australia's forest product industries (Bureau of Resource Sciences 2006). Plantation forests also play a small but significant role in mitigating the effects of climate change through sequestration of carbon into durable timber products. However, climate change is likely to pose several direct and indirect challenges to this important industry. One of the indirect challenges is likely to come through changes in the distribution, relative abundance and population dynamics of both native and exotic insects, diseases and weeds (collectively pests) (Sutherst etal. 2007). A series of case studies involving key pests of Eucalypt and Pine plantations are used to explore the likely impacts of climate change on plantation productivity. Global climate model (GCM) scenarios from Ozclim are used with CLIMEX to project changes in the potential distribution and relative abundance of these pests. The GCM results are also used to generate synthetic weather sequences for future climate scenarios. These weather sequences are used in DYMEX models of pest population dynamics to explore non-linear responses of the pest populations. In turn, the DYMEX results are fed into a process-based plant growth model (CABALA), for the three major plantation species in order to assess the likely effects of changing pest populations associated with climate, change on plantation productivity

  2. Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA. An Integrated Assessment. Part 3. Dryland Production of Grain and Forage Crops

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Here we simulate dryland agriculture in the United States in order to assess potential future agricultural production under a set of general circulation model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The total national production of three major grain crops-corn, soybeans, and winter wheat-and two forage crops-alfalfa and clover hay-is calculated for the actual present day core production area (CPA) of each of these crops. In general, higher global mean temperature (GMT) reduces production and higher atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) increases production. Depending on the climatic change scenarios employed overall national production of the crops studied changes by up to plus or minus 25% from present-day levels. Impacts are more significant regionally, with crop production varying by greater than ±50% from baseline levels. Analysis of currently possible production areas (CPPAs) for each crop indicates that the regions most likely to be affected by climate change are those on the margins of the areas in which they are currently grown. Crop yield variability was found to be primarily influenced by local weather and geographic features rather than by large-scale changes in climate patterns and atmospheric composition. Future US agronomic potential will be significantly affected by the changes in climate projected here. The nature of the crop response will depend primarily on to what extent precipitation patterns change and also on the degree of warming experienced

  3. Assessing the impact of climate variability and change on crop production in the Midwestern USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, R.; Bowling, L. C.; Cherkauer, K. A.

    2013-12-01

    Interannual variability of crop yield in the Midwestern USA is closely related to extremes in spring and summer moisture conditions. For example, extensive summer drought in 2012 caused a 28% reduction in corn yield relative to early season predictions. In contrast, saturated soil conditions in spring 2013 have led to delayed planting and poor stand development. Therefore, when applying physically-based models to predict crop yield, soil moisture dynamics and physiological stresses must be correctly represented, especially under future climate scenarios where spring and summer moisture are projected to increase and decrease, respectively, over much of the Midwest. The overall objective of this research is to explore and improve the ability of an existing ecohydrology model (SWAT 2009) to simulate corn yield with respect to current and future climate and soil moisture variability. The model is first evaluated for four field scale sites in Iowa, Illinois and Ohio. Soil moisture is calibrated based on 5-6 years of layer specific data to ensure a realistic soil water representation either in dry or wet conditions. Then the calibrated model is used to evaluate the effects of climate variability on crop yield between 1991 and 2010. Finally, the model is run with down-scaled and bias-corrected CMIP5 data from three GCMs (CCSM4, GFDL-esm2m, MIROC5) and four emissions scenarios (RC2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). Soil moisture, physiological stresses and crop yield predictions for two future periods (2031-2050, 2071-2090) are compared with the baseline period (1991-2010) to quantify climate change impacts on crop yield due to excess/deficit moisture.

  4. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baruffi, F. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cisotto, A., E-mail: segreteria@adbve.it [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Pretner, A.; Galli, A. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Scarinci, A., E-mail: andrea.scarinci@sgi-spa.it [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Marsala, V.; Panelli, C. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Gualdi, S., E-mail: silvio.gualdi@bo.ingv.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Bucchignani, E., E-mail: e.bucchignani@cira.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Torresan, S., E-mail: torresan@cmcc.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Pasini, S., E-mail: sara.pasini@stud.unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); Critto, A., E-mail: critto@unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); and others

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

  5. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961–1990 and the projection period 2010–2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071–2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble

  6. Assessing the impacts of climate change on agricultural production in the Columbia River basin: incorporating water management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam, J. C.; Rajagopalan, K.; Stockle, C. O.; Yorgey, G.; Kruger, C. E.; Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Nelson, R.

    2014-12-01

    moving through growth stages earlier in the season with wetter and warmer spring conditions. Incorporating regulations into integrated modeling framework results in a more realistic assessment of climate change impacts.

  7. Assessing climate impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Wohl, Ellen E.; Roger S. Pulwarty; Zhang, Jian Yun

    2000-01-01

    Assessing climate impacts involves identifying sources and characteristics of climate variability, and mitigating potential negative impacts of that variability. Associated research focuses on climate driving mechanisms, biosphere–hydrosphere responses and mediation, and human responses. Examples of climate impacts come from 1998 flooding in the Yangtze River Basin and hurricanes in the Caribbean and Central America. Although we have limited understanding of the fu...

  8. Climate Change and Human Health Impacts in the United States: An Update on the Results of the U.S. National Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Ebi, Kristie L.; Mills, David M.; Smith, Joel B.; Grambsch, Anne

    2006-01-01

    The health sector component of the first U.S. National Assessment, published in 2000, synthesized the anticipated health impacts of climate variability and change for five categories of health outcomes: impacts attributable to temperature, extreme weather events (e.g., storms and floods), air pollution, water- and food-borne diseases, and vector- and rodent-borne diseases. The Health Sector Assessment (HSA) concluded that climate variability and change are likely to increase morbidity and mor...

  9. Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molina Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia;

    2014-01-01

    Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water...... and recreational purposes. We also checked for the possible synergistic effects of changes in climate and land use on water flow and nutrient exports from the catchment. Simulations showed a noticeable impact of climate change in the river flow regime and consequently the water level of the limno...... the worst-case combined scenario compared to the sum of individual scenarios. Our model framework may help water managers to assess and manage how these multiple environmental stressors interact and ultimately affect aquatic ecosystems. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved....

  10. 气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅱ):气候变化的影响与适应%China's National Assessment Report on Climate Change (Ⅱ): Climate change impacts and adaptation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    林而达; 许吟隆; 吴绍洪

    2007-01-01

    Significant and various impacts of climate change have been observed in China, showing both positive and adverse effects, dominantly the latter, in different sectors and regions. It is very likely that future climate change would cause significant adverse impacts on the ecosystems, agriculture, water resources, and coastal zones in China. Adoption of adaptive measures to climate change can alleviate the adverse impact, therefore such measures should be incorporated into the medium-and long-term national economic and social development plans. Because China has done relatively limited research on impact assessment and our understanding of climate change is incomplete, the current impact assessment methodologies used and results obtained contain many uncertainties. To reduce the uncertainties and develop effective and practical climate change adaptive measures in China, it is necessary to emphasize regional case studies on adaptive measures, enlarge the scope of climate change research, and strengthen the assessment of the impacts resulted from extreme weather/climate events.

  11. Assessing impact of climate and land use change on water quality in two contrasting meso-scale catchments in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcinkowski, Pawel; Kardel, Ignacy; Ksiezniak, Marta; Berezowski, Tomasz; Okruszko, Tomasz; Mezghani, Abdelkader; Dobler, Andreas; Piniewski, Mikolaj

    2016-04-01

    The Upper Narew (4280 km2) and the Barycz (5520 km2) are two Polish, meso-scale, lowland catchments, contrasting in terms of land use, water management and water quality. Semi-distributed process-based SWAT model was applied in both catchments for assessment of climate change impact on selected water quality parameters. The model setup was developed based on high-resolution inputs, e.g. 5 km gridded precipitation and temperature dataset and 30 m Landsat8-based land cover map. Multi-site calibration and validation against observed discharge, sediment loads and nutrients loads (nitrogen and phosphorus compounds) gave predominantly satisfactory goodness-of-fit measures which enabled further model use for scenario analysis. Impact of land use on water quality can be assessed by comparing nutrients loads and concentrations simulated for the current conditions between two contrasting catchments. Both specific loads and concentrations of major nitrogen and phosphorous forms were on average 80-100% higher in the Barycz than in the Upper Narew catchment. This is a result of more intensive agricultural practices taking place in the Barycz, unlike the Upper Narew where agriculture is mostly extensive. Large parts of the Barycz catchment have been designed as the Nitrates Vulnerable Zones and since 2007 there are legal restrictions concerning agricultural practices in these areas. Nine GCM-RCM runs projected to the year 2100 for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 provided within the EURO-CORDEX experiment were first bias-corrected using quantile mapping method and then used as an ensemble of climate change scenarios in SWAT. Precipitation projections were largely consistent in showing an increasing precipitation trend, present particularly in winter and spring, in both catchments. This clearly affected the hydrological and biogeochemical cycle and resulted in higher projected water yield, increased erosion, and elevated nitrogen and phosphorus emission to water bodies. The rate of change caused

  12. The 'Hothaps' programme for assessing climate change impacts on occupational health and productivity: an invitation to carry out field studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjellstrom, Tord; Gabrysch, Sabine; Lemke, Bruno; Dear, Keith

    2009-01-01

    The 'high occupational temperature health and productivity suppression' programme (Hothaps) is a multi-centre health research and prevention programme aimed at quantifying the extent to which working people are affected by, or adapt to, heat exposure while working, and how global heating during climate change may increase such effects. The programme will produce essential new evidence for local, national and global assessment of negative impacts of climate change that have largely been overlooked. It will also identify and evaluate preventive interventions in different social and economic settings.Hothaps includes studies in any part of the world where hourly heat exposure exceeds physiological stress limits that may affect workers. This usually happens at temperatures above 25 degrees C, depending on humidity, wind movement and heat radiation. Working people in low and middle-income tropical countries are particularly vulnerable, because many of them are involved in heavy physical work, either outdoors in strong sunlight or indoors without effective cooling. If high work intensity is maintained in workplaces with high heat exposure, serious health effects can occur, including heat stroke and death.Depending on the type of occupation, the required work intensity, and the level of heat stress, working people have to slow down their work in order to reduce internal body heat production and the risk of heat stroke. Thus, unless preventive interventions are used to reduce the heat stress on workers, their individual health and productivity will be affected and economic output per work hour will be reduced. Heat also influences other daily physical activities, unrelated to work, in all age groups. Poorer people without access to household or workplace cooling devices are most likely to be affected.The Hothaps programme includes a pilot study, heat monitoring of selected workplaces, qualitative studies of perceived heat impacts and preventative interventions

  13. Sustainability Impact Assessment of two forest-based bioenergy production systems related to mitigation and adaption to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gartzia-Bengoetxea, Nahia; Arias-González, Ander; Tuomasjukka, Diana

    2016-04-01

    New forest management strategies are necessary to resist and adapt to Climate Change (CC) and to maintain ecosystem functions such as forest productivity, water storage and biomass production. The increased use of forest-based biomass for energy generation as well as the application of combustion or pyrolysis co-products such as ash or biochar back into forest soils is being suggested as a CC mitigation and adaptation strategy while trying to fulfil the targets of both: (i) Europe 2020 growth strategy in relation to CC and energy sustainability and (ii) EU Action Plan for the Circular Economy. The energy stored in harvested biomass can be released through combustion and used for energy generation to enable national energy security (reduced oil dependence) and the substitution of fossil fuel by renewable biomass can decrease the emission of greenhouse gases.In the end, the wood-ash produced in the process can return to the forest soil to replace the nutrients exported by harvesting. Another way to use biomass in this green circular framework is to pyrolyse it. Pyrolysis of the biomass produce a carbon-rich product (biochar) that can increase carbon sequestration in the soils and liquid and gas co-products of biomass pyrolysis can be used for energy generation or other fuel use thereby offsetting fossil fuel consumption and so avoiding greenhouse gas emissions. Both biomass based energy systems differ in the amount of energy produced, in the co-product (biochar or wood ash) returned to the field, and in societal impacts they have. The Tool for Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA) was used for modelling both energy production systems. ToSIA integrates several different methods, and allows a quantification and objective comparison of economic, environmental and social impacts in a sustainability impact assessment for different decision alternatives/scenarios. We will interpret the results in order to support the bioenergy planning in temperate forests under the

  14. Assessment of potential climate and land use change impacts on the regional water resources of Lusatia (Germany)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gädeke, Anne; Pohle, Ina; Koch, Hagen; Grünewald, Uwe

    2013-04-01

    Being one of the driest regions in Germany, the climatic water balance of Lusatia is already negative under current climate conditions. Due to excessive open-cast lignite mining activities during the last centuries, the water balance of the catchments of the rivers Spree, Schwarze Elster, and Lusatian Neisse is profoundly disturbed. Potential changes of future climate and land use conditions will certainly impact the hydrologic conditions and may tighten already existing water user conflicts. The aim of the study is (1) the determination of the impact of climate and land use change on the natural discharge in the Lusatian river catchments as a prerequisite for the formulation of suitable water related climate change adaptation strategies and (2) the assessment whether climate or land use changes will be the dominant reason for potential future changes of the water resources in the Lusatian river basins. In a first step, the spatially-distributed, process-based Water Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM-ETH), the semi-distributed, process-oriented Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM), and the simple conceptual lumped model HBV-light are calibrated for subcatchments where the influence of lignite mining and water management on discharge is comparably low. The application of three conceptually different models allows for the estimation of the uncertainty related to the hydrological model as well as to verify the applicability of SWIM for the whole study region. SWIM was chosen as hydrological model for the entire river basins because its computational effort is comparably low while allowing through its hydrotope approach spatially distributed analyses. In a second step, the model parameters of SWIM are regionalized onto the scale of the entire river basin. For the consideration of possible impacts of climate change, SWIM is the driven by the meteorological parameters of two statistical regional climate models: Statistical Analogue Resampling scheme (STAR; 3 scenarios

  15. Integrated Modeling to Assess the Impacts of Changes in Climate and Socio Economics on Agriculture in the Columbia River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajagopalan, K.; Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Adam, J. C.; Malek, K.; Nelson, R.; Stockle, C.; Brady, M.; Dinesh, S.; Barber, M. E.; Yorgey, G.; Kruger, C.

    2012-12-01

    The objective of this work is to assess the impacts of climate change and socio economics on agriculture in the Columbia River basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S. and a portion of Southwestern Canada. The water resources of the CRB are managed to satisfy multiple objectives including agricultural withdrawal, which is the largest consumptive user of CRB water with 14,000 square kilometers of irrigated area. Agriculture is an important component of the region's economy, with an annual value over 5 billion in Washington State alone. Therefore, the region is relevant for applying a modeling framework that can aid agriculture decision making in the context of a changing climate. To do this, we created an integrated biophysical and socio-economic regional modeling framework that includes human and natural systems. The modeling framework captures the interactions between climate, hydrology, crop growth dynamics, water management and socio economics. The biophysical framework includes a coupled macro-scale physically-based hydrology model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity, VIC model), and crop growth model (CropSyst), as well as a reservoir operations simulation model. Water rights data and instream flow target requirements are also incorporated in the model to simulate the process of curtailment during water shortage. The economics model informs the biophysical model of the short term agricultural producer response to water shortage as well as the long term agricultural producer response to domestic growth and international trade in terms of an altered cropping pattern. The modeling framework was applied over the CRB for the historical period 1976-2006 and compared to a future 30-year period centered on the 2030s. Impacts of climate change on irrigation water availability, crop irrigation demand, frequency of curtailment, and crop yields are quantified and presented. Sensitivity associated with estimates of water availability, irrigation demand, crop

  16. Climate change impact assessment of extreme precipitation on urban flash floods – case study, Aarhus, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Rosbjerg, Dan;

    extreme value statistics of the RCM data, and application of a stochastic weather generator fitted to the changes in rainfall characteristics from the RCM data. The results show a large variability in the projected changes in extreme precipitation between the different RCMs and the two estimation methods...

  17. Reducing the Vulnerability of Azerbaijan's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change : Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options

    OpenAIRE

    Ahouissoussi, Nicolas; James E. Neumann; Srivastava, Jitendra P.; Okan, Cuneyt; Brent B. Boehlert; Strzepek, Kenneth M.

    2014-01-01

    In countries such as Azerbaijan, the risks of climate change for the agricultural sector are a particularly immediate and important problem because the majority of the rural population depends either directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihoods. The need to adapt to climate change in all sectors is now on the agenda of the countries and development partners. International ef...

  18. Impact assessment of climate change and human activities on annual highest water level of Taihu Lake

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qing-fang HU; Yin-tang WANG

    2009-01-01

    The annual highest water level of Taihu Lake (Zm) is very significant for flood management in the Taihu Basin. This paper first describes the inter-annual and intra-annual traits of Zm from 1956 to 2000. Then, using the Mann-Kenall (MK) and Spearman (SP) nonparametric tests, the long-term change trends of area precipitation and pan evaporation in the Taihu Basin are determined. Meanwhile, using the Morlet wavelet transformation, the fluctuation patterns and change points of precipitation and pan evaporation are analyzed. Also, human activities in the Taihu Basin are described, including land use change and hydraulic project construction. Finally, the relationship between Zm, the water level of Taihu Lake 30 days prior to the day of Zm (Z0), and the 30-day total precipitation and pan evaporation prior to the day of Zm (P and E0, respectively) is described based on multi-linear regression equations. The relative influence of climate change and human activities on the change of Zm is quantitatively ascertained. The results demonstrate that: (1) Zm was distinctly higher during the 1980-2000 period than during the 1956-1979 period, and the 30 days prior to the day of Zm are the key phase influencing Zm every year; (2) P increased significantly at a confidence level of 95% during the 1956-2000 period, while the reverse was true for E0; (3) The relationship between Zm, P and E0 distinctly changed after 1980; (4) Climate change and human activities together caused frequent occurrences of high Zm after 1980; (5) Climate change caused a substantially greater Zm difference between the 1956-1979 and 1980-2000 periods than human activities. Climate change, as represented by P and E0, was the dominant factor raising Zm, with a relative influence ratio of 83.6%, while human activities had a smaller influence ratio of 16.4%.

  19. Mesh climate change data of Japan ver. 2 for climate change impact assessments under IPCC SRES A1B and A2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in 2007 and stated that recent climate change and variation are induced by increases in the atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHG) concentration due to anthropogenic activities. The report includes the results of impact assessments on a wide range of sectors. These assessments have been conducted based on future climate projections, which refer to aspects of the future climate evaluated by Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs). The projection data used in the AR4 are archived under the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) promoted by the U.S. Department of Energy. We interpolated the projection data around Japan and constructed a dataset entitled the 'Mesh climate change data of Japan Ver. 2' for the climate change impact study. Nine projections performed by seven models under the A1B and A2 of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) were implemented for the dataset. They consist of mesh data with a size of 7.5 min in longitude and 5.0 min in latitude, i.e. approximately 10 X 10 km (45 sec in longitude and 30 sec in latitude, approximately 1 x 1 km, for one high-resolution model). The dataset includes five climatic elements, i.e. the daily mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures, daily total precipitation, and daily accumulated shortwave radiation for three periods, 1981-2000, 2046-2065, and 2081-2100. This article describes the details concerning the construction and characteristics of the data

  20. Assessment of environmental change and its socio-economic impacts in the mangrove ecological zone of the Niger Delta, Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Godstime Kadiri

    The Niger Delta, located in the central part of Southern Nigeria, is endowed with immense Mangrove resources, estimated to be the fourth largest in the world. The term Mangrove refers to salt tolerant species of trees or shrubs that grow on shores and in estuaries located in the coastal tropics and sub-tropical regions of the world. They support highly productive marine food chains. However, Mangrove ecosystems are in serious decline around the world due to the rapid increase in maritime commerce and exploration of mineral resources in the last few decades. These pressures often have immediate consequences on sensitive coastal environments and can potentially impact future human use of coastal space and resources. This dynamic process presents unique opportunities for research to explore the nature and consequences of these pressures. This dissertation focused on the Mangrove ecological zone of the Niger Delta, where resource exploitation and indigenous use of the environment are in direct conflict with important socio-economic implications. Environmental accounting metrics derived from the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework were used to assess changes in the spatial extent of the Niger Delta Mangrove ecosystem and the socio-economic impacts of the observed changes. Landsat remotely sensed satellite data from the mid-1980s through 2003 was used to assess change in the spatial extent of the Mangrove vegetation in the region. A total of 21,340 hectares of Mangrove forest was determined to be lost over the study period. Field research in the region confirmed that this loss was primarily driven by urbanization and activities of the multinational oil and gas corporations operating in the region. To estimate the socio-economic impacts of the Mangrove loss in the region, neoclassical economic valuation and participatory social valuation approaches were adopted. Results from the economic valuation revealed that the net present value of future income

  1. Economic assessment of the impact of climate change on the agriculture of Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirza Nomman Ahmed

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This article studies how climate change affects the agricultural productivity in Pakistan`s four provinces Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan and the N.W.F.P., measured as weighted food crop yields per hectare, for the food crops wheat, rice and maize. By considering the RABI (Nov-Apr growing season and including a measure for drought to capture the occurrence of extreme events, exacerbated through climate change, the proposed hypothesis is that changing climatic variables have reduced and are reducing the agricultural productivity and thus posing a threat to long term food security. To depict the effect of climate change, several control variables are introduced in a panel framework for intertemporal analysis. As a result, we should expect lower levels of productivity in the arid zones with greater climatic pressure and adverse effects on food security through lower agricultural yields.

  2. Ex Ante Impact Assessment of a Drought Tolerant Rice Variety in the Presence of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Mottaleb, Khondoker A.; Rejesus, Roderick M.; Mohanty, Samarendu; Murty, M.V.R.; Li, Tao; Valera, Harold Glenn; Gumma, Murali Krishna

    2012-01-01

    Rice productivity and sustainability are continually threatened by abiotic stresses, particularly in the era of global climate change. In severe cases, 100% yield loss can be experienced due solely to abiotic stresses, such as drought. The situation may become worse due to climate change that may multiply the frequency and severity of such abiotic stresses. Hence, there is an urgent need to develop improved varieties that are more resilient to abiotic stresses. This study examines the net eco...

  3. A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, VULNERABILITY AND POLICY IN INDIA

    OpenAIRE

    Vijaya Gupta

    2011-01-01

    There is considerable disagreement on the extent of the changes in the variables of climate, but is expected that these changes will lead to submergence of coastal areas, and increased severe occurrence of floods and droughts and harm productivity in agriculture, fishery, forestry, human, all converted into loss of lives and livelihood, productivity, employment opportunities, with high opportunity cost of adaptations and mitigations in India. The developing countries are particularly vulnerab...

  4. Assessing the environmental impact of changes in pesticide use on transgenic crops

    OpenAIRE

    Kleter, G.A.; Kuiper, H.A.

    2004-01-01

    Two main traits that have been introduced into genetically modified crops that are currently on the market, viz., herbicide and insect resistance, likely affect pesticide use on these crops. Various surveys have been carried out, such as those of the USDAERS and NCFAP, comparing the pesticide use on genetically modified versus conventional crops. Environmental indicators for pesticides may aid in comparing the outcomes of such assays in terms of environmental impact. Previously we applied one...

  5. Possible impact of climate change on meningitis in northwest Nigeria: an assessment using CMIP5 climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdussalam, Auwal; Monaghan, Andrew; Steinhoff, Daniel; Dukic, Vanja; Hayden, Mary; Hopson, Thomas; Thornes, John; Leckebusch, Gregor

    2014-05-01

    Meningitis remains a major health burden throughout Sahelian Africa, especially in heavily-populated northwest Nigeria. Cases exhibit strong sensitivity to intra- and inter-annual climate variability, peaking during the hot and dry boreal spring months, raising concern that future climate change may increase the incidence of meningitis in the region. The impact of future climate change on meningitis risk in northwest Nigeria is assessed by forcing an empirical model of meningitis with monthly simulations from an ensemble of thirteen statistically downscaled global climate model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Experiment Phase 5 (CMIP5) for RCPs 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios. The results suggest future temperature increases due to climate change has the potential to significantly increase meningitis cases in both the early and late 21st century, and to increase the length of the meningitis season in the late century. March cases may increase from 23 per 100,000 people for present day (1990-2005), to 29-30 per 100,000 (p<0.01) in the early century (2020-2035) and 31-42 per 100,000 (p<0.01) in the late century (2060-2075), the range being dependent on the emissions scenario. It is noteworthy that these results represent the climatological potential for increased cases due to climate change, as we assume current prevention and treatment strategies remain similar in the future.

  6. Improved hydrological model parametrization for climate change impact assessment under data scarcity - The potential of field monitoring techniques and geostatistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Swen; Blaschek, Michael; Duttmann, Rainer; Ludwig, Ralf

    2016-02-01

    According to current climate projections, Mediterranean countries are at high risk for an even pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. These changes are expected to have severe direct impacts on the management of water resources, agricultural productivity and drinking water supply. Current projections of future hydrological change, based on regional climate model results and subsequent hydrological modeling schemes, are very uncertain and poorly validated. The Rio Mannu di San Sperate Basin, located in Sardinia, Italy, is one test site of the CLIMB project. The Water Simulation Model (WaSiM) was set up to model current and future hydrological conditions. The availability of measured meteorological and hydrological data is poor as it is common for many Mediterranean catchments. In this study we conducted a soil sampling campaign in the Rio Mannu catchment. We tested different deterministic and hybrid geostatistical interpolation methods on soil textures and tested the performance of the applied models. We calculated a new soil texture map based on the best prediction method. The soil model in WaSiM was set up with the improved new soil information. The simulation results were compared to standard soil parametrization. WaSiMs was validated with spatial evapotranspiration rates using the triangle method (Jiang and Islam, 1999). WaSiM was driven with the meteorological forcing taken from 4 different ENSEMBLES climate projections for a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) times series. The climate change impact was assessed based on differences between reference and future time series. The simulated results show a reduction of all hydrological quantities in the future in the spring season. Furthermore simulation results reveal an earlier onset of dry conditions in the catchment. We show that a solid soil model setup based on short-term field measurements can improve long-term modeling results, which is especially important

  7. How does the choice of ILCD’s recommended methods change the assessment of environmental impacts in LCA of products?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Owsianiak, Mikolaj; Laurent, Alexis; Bjørn, Anders; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    2014-01-01

    whether the choice of ILCD matters for total impact scores. Results show that apart from toxic impacts on human health and ecosystems, all three methodologies consistently identify the same window option as having the lowest and the highest total environmental impact. This is mainly because production of...... on human health and impacts from land use on natural environment; between 1 and 3 orders of magnitude for metal depletion and for toxicity-related impact categories; and within 1 order of magnitude for the remaining impact categories.These differences are caused by the differences in underlying...... environmental impacts and there is large difference in demand for output from that process between the compared options. Nevertheless, the choice of ILCD' matters the most for assessment of impacts from ionizing radiation, land use, resource depletion (minerals), and all toxicity-related impact categories...

  8. Communicating Climate Change Science to Stakeholders for Assessments of Impact and Adaptation: Experiences at the Municipal Level in Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, P. R.; Mate, D.; Tansey, J. D.

    2004-12-01

    The assessment of climate change impacts and the identification of adaptation strategies require understandable communication of climate change science and its uncertainties to a diverse group of stakeholders. This paper will report on the experience being gained from a set of municipal case studies conducted in Canada, where climate change impacts such as water resource depletion, permafrost melting and coastal sea level rise are being addressed. Two aspects will be discussed: the local process of stakeholder interaction and the effort to bring the local experiences to a national level through development of municipal best practice guides. Ideally, stakeholders are engaged at the local level through a structured process. This is to avoid the common problem that pre-existing tensions between stakeholders tend to dominate unstructured discussions and distract attention from the target issue. One-on-one interviews with the stakeholders and research into the socio-economic history of the communities provide background on the issues that may arise before group workshops are attempted. When workshops involving stakeholders are held, they are professionally facilitated and the science delivery is carefully rationed into digestible portions that enable informed discussion of specific climate change scenarios. Municipalities can be engaged at political, practitioner and public levels not only as major stakeholders, but also as key partners in the communication process. We have used presentations to council, direct involvement of city planning departments and public events such as Science and Technology Week to nurture two-way communication. We have also put considerable thought into the effort to communicate these experiences to the over one thousand communities across the country that will not benefit from a case study. Our initial approach was to develop best practice guides on climate change topics based on the successes and lessons learned in the case studies. While

  9. WP/082 The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn; Thurlow, James

    , at least until 2050. Larger costs are caused by rising sea levels and cyclone strikes. Overall, climate change is likely to reduce Vietnam’s national income by between one and two percent by 2050 (relative to a historical baseline). Damages double under more extreme projections. Our findings suggest...

  10. Ex ante impact assessment of land use changes in European regions - The SENSOR approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Helming, K.; Tscherning, K.; König, B.; Sieber, S.; Wiggering, H.; Kuhlman, T.; Wascher, D.M.; Pérez-Soba, M.; Smeets, P.J.A.M.; Tabbush, P.; Dilly, O.; Hüttl, R.F.; Bach, H.

    2008-01-01

    Land use includes those human activities that exhibit a spatial dimension and that change the bio-geophysical conditions of land. Land use policy making at European level aims at fostering sustainability pathways of natural resource use and rural development through the decoupling of economic growth

  11. A stochastic assessment of climate change impacts on precipitation and potential evaporation in Alberta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vashchyshyn, I.; Wheater, H. S.; Chun, K.

    2012-12-01

    In many climate change investigations, changes in precipitation are projected under various scenarios; however, changes in evaporation have received relatively less attention. For irrigation and water resources management, the difference between potential evaporation and precipitation can provide better quantification of local water availability and drought conditions. Therefore, projecting joint variations in precipitation and potential evaporation can provide better information for climate change adaptation. A stochastic approach based on a Generalised Linear Model (GLM) framework is proposed to study these together at a station scale. Eight stations in Alberta are selected for which historical pan evaporation records and up-to-date meteorological information are available. Results show that potential evaporation estimated from Global Circulation Models directly can be unreliable. The evaporation ensemble simulated by the GLM approach can represent observed evaporation more realistically and provide better uncertainty quantification. If only simulated precipitation is considered, the projected drought conditions in the 2080s are likely to be less severe than that in the 2000s. However, the projected difference between precipitation and evaporation (water deficit) shows that the future drought conditions may be higher or lower, varying between the stations. Implications of the results and further development of the proposed approach to address spatial dependence between stations are also discussed.

  12. Assessing climate change impacts on river flows and environmental flow requirements at catchment scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gül, G.O.; Rosbjerg, Dan; Gül, A.;

    2010-01-01

    mostly at the local scale. though potential changes in the hydrological cycle and eco-hydrological processes are more difficult to model and analyse at this level. The difficulty is even greater for studies on lowland river systems, which require the modelling of hydrological processes in greater detail...

  13. Use of Geoenvironmental Impact of Climate Change in Management and Assessment Lake Nasser, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayed El Gammal, El

    2010-05-01

    This study monitor how to management the water stored after High Dam in the biggest artificial global lake (Lake Nasser), Integration of physical features and water level changes within the lake curse and margins. Statistical data presented, interpreted and correlated with using remote sensing technique in change detection. Different Landsat images acquired at different times (1970, 1982, 1987, 2000, 2003 and 2008) have been used by the ERDAS and ARC-GIS techniques to estimate the movements of lake borders and water fluctuation proportional to water sizes in place. Regards to water fluctuation degree, the lake can be divide into 4 classes in lake's sectors: 1, show maximum change degree, 2 show medium change degree, 3 slight to neglected change degree, and 4, no change. Functions control the water fluctuation in Lake Nasser are; (i) the granite and Nubia sandstone outcrops, (ii) NW, E-W and NE structure in order, (iii) low topography. Water level change detection on Landsat images in different dates elucidates big variation between different lake sectors, there are strangle points and other useful localities that yields environmental implication. The strangle points detected in the curse of River Nile and after 40 years since lake initiation, the water are more strangled in this curse because of the water velocity before the High Dam was high speed can pass toward the north in Nile annual flood but after the dam, the water velocity decreased. Due to decrease of velocity, the water go to narrow incised wadis (Khors) in the Nile high flood plus the sands drift, these khors are bounded by hard Nubia sandstone already saturated by water and it consider the main underground water reservoir in Egypt. In addition, the entrance of the lake in Halfa inside Sudan is subjected to suspended sediments (mud) forming new delta plus the sands drift that impair the reservoir in Egypt. Wadi Allaqui have 250 km length and 2 km average width, it's is the 5th order channel inside a

  14. Climate change - the impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This special dossier about the impacts of climate change is made of 6 contributions dealing with: the mitigation of climate effects and how to deal with them (Bertrand Reysset); how to dare and transmit (Laurent Billes-Garabedian); littoral risks, the Pas-de-Calais example (Julien Henique); extreme meteorological events and health impacts (Mathilde Pascal, Philippe Pirard, Yvon Motreff); Biodiversity and climate: the janus of global change (Robert Barbault, Jacques Weber); adapting agriculture to dryness and temperatures (Philippe Gate); Paris and the future heats of the year 2100 (Jean-Luc Salagnac, Julien Desplat, Raphaelle Kounkou-Arnaud)

  15. Assessing the Impacts of Local Knowledge and Technology on Climate Change Vulnerability in Remote Communities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Kliskey

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The introduction of new technologies into small remote communities can alter how individuals acquire knowledge about their surrounding environment. This is especially true when technologies that satisfy basic needs, such as freshwater use, create a distance (i.e., diminishing exposure between individuals and their environment. However, such distancing can potentially be countered by the transfer of local knowledge between community members and from one generation to the next. The objective of this study is to simulate by way of agent-based modeling the tensions between technology-induced distancing and local knowledge that are exerted on community vulnerability to climate change. A model is developed that simulates how a collection of individual perceptions about changes to climatic-related variables manifest into community perceptions, how perceptions are influenced by the movement away from traditional resource use, and how the transmission of knowledge mitigates the potentially adverse effects of technology-induced distancing. The model is implemented utilizing climate and social data for two remote communities located on the Seward Peninsula in western Alaska. The agent-based model simulates a set of scenarios that depict different ways in which these communities may potentially engage with their natural resources, utilize knowledge transfer, and develop perceptions of how the local climate is different from previous years. A loosely-coupled pan-arctic climate model simulates changes monthly changes to climatic variables. The discrepancy between the perceptions derived from the agent-based model and the projections simulated by the climate model represent community vulnerability. The results demonstrate how demographics, the communication of knowledge and the types of ‘knowledge-providers’ influence community perception about changes to their local climate.

  16. Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Species Habitats and Distributions in the Southeastern U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collazo, J. A.; Grand, J. B.; Terando, A.; Nichols, J. D.; McKerrow, A.

    2009-05-01

    Adapting to and mitigating for the impacts of climate change on wildlife will require scale and resource specific analyses. In the Southeastern U.S. a variety of disturbances (e.g. urbanization, plant succession) including those affected by climate change (e.g. sea level rise, fire frequency) impact the suitability of habitat through time. In order to adapt their management strategies, resource managers and policy makers will need tools to understand the full range of possible future conditions. Here we describe and offer preliminary results on two studies designed to project the future range of conditions for wildlife habitat in the southeast. In the first project we use Monte Carlo simulations to project landscape dynamics and subsequent availability of habitats for priority species in the Southern Atlantic Migratory Bird Initiative (SAMBI) region. In that study, the indirect impacts of climate change are incorporated through the influence of temperature and convective precipitation on fire potential. Fires influences the landscape dynamics through state transitions (e.g., late open canopy, early closed canopy), that are determined probabilistically. Initially the relationship between the climate variables and fire potential were projected out to 2100 using twelve of the Global Climate Models. Currently, we are working with Texas Technological University to refine predictions of fire potential using regionally-scaled climate models. A variety of management and climate scenarios are being run to allow decision makers to make direct comparisons between predictions based on those scenarios (i.e., acres of habitat, connectivity of habitat). Results are supplied to resource managers in the form a decision support tools based on the priority species guilds in the region. A second more extensive effort, the Southeastern Pilot, will use occupancy models to assess range dynamics of North American land birds. Local probabilities of extinction and colonization are viewed as

  17. Wind power: Addressing wildlife impacts, assessing effects on tourism, and examining the link between climate change perceptions and support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lilley, Meredith Blaydes

    As the world's most rapidly growing source of energy, wind power has vast potential for mitigating climate change and advancing global environmental sustainability. Yet, the challenges facing wind energy remain both complex and substantial. Two such challenges are: 1) wildlife impacts; and 2) perceived negative effects on tourism. This dissertation examines these challenges in a multi-paper format, and also investigates the role that climate change perceptions play in garnering public support for wind power. The first paper assesses optimal approaches for addressing wind power's wildlife impacts. Comparative analysis reveals that avian mortality from turbines ranks far behind avian mortality from a number of other anthropogenic sources. Additionally, although bats have recently emerged as more vulnerable to wind turbines than birds, they are generally less federally protected. The Migratory Bird Treaty Act (MBTA) protects over 800 bird species, regardless of their threatened or endangered status. Moreover, it criminalizes the incidental take of birds without a permit and simultaneously grants no permits for such incidental take, thereby creating a legal conundrum for the wind industry. An examination of the legislative and case history of the MBTA, however, reveals that wind operators are not likely to be prosecuted for incidental take if they cooperate with the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service (FWS) and take reasonable steps to reduce siting and operational impacts. Furthermore, this study's analysis reveals modest wildlife impacts from wind power, in comparison with numerous other energy sources. Scientific-research, legal, and policy recommendations are provided to update the present legal and regulatory regime under the MBTA and to minimize avian and bat impacts. For instance, FWS should: establish comprehensive federal guidelines for wind facility siting, permitting, monitoring, and mitigation; and promulgate regulations under the MBTA for the issuance of

  18. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM) III: Scenario analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huisman, J.A.; Breuer, L.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.; Willems, P.

    2009-01-01

    An ensemble of 10 hydrological models was applied to the same set of land use change scenarios. There was general agreement about the direction of changes in the mean annual discharge and 90% discharge percentile predicted by the ensemble members, although a considerable range in the magnitude of predictions for the scenarios and catchments under consideration was obvious. Differences in the magnitude of the increase were attributed to the different mean annual actual evapotranspiration rates for each land use type. The ensemble of model runs was further analyzed with deterministic and probabilistic ensemble methods. The deterministic ensemble method based on a trimmed mean resulted in a single somewhat more reliable scenario prediction. The probabilistic reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method allowed a quantification of the model structure uncertainty in the scenario predictions. It was concluded that the use of a model ensemble has greatly increased our confidence in the reliability of the model predictions. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

  19. Screening tool development for health impact assessment of large administrative structural changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn, Anne Katrine; Nicolaisen, Henriette; Linnrose, Karina;

    2008-01-01

    available on the Internet and in the scientific literature, in many cases lack of access to those tools creates a barrier to the use of HIA. RESULTS: Denmark is undergoing a major structural change in state administration, moving many responsibilities from the state to the local level. Newly constructed....... CONCLUSIONS: This article describes a newly constructed screening tool for use at the local level, and describes how we approached the construction of the tool....

  20. Reducing the Vulnerability of Uzbekistan's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change : Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options

    OpenAIRE

    William R. Sutton; Jitendra P. Srivastava; James E. Neumann; Droogers, Peter; Brent B. Boehlert

    2013-01-01

    Agricultural production is inextricably tied to climate, making agriculture one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. In countries such as Uzbekistan, the risks of climate change for the agricultural sector are a particularly immediate and important problem because the majority of the rural population depends either directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihoods. Recent trends in water availability and the presence of drought in Uzbekistan have underscored these ...

  1. Impact of Climate Change on extreme flows across Great Britain: a comparison of extreme value distributions and uncertainty assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collet, Lila; Beevers, Lindsay; Prudhomme, Christel

    2016-04-01

    Floods are the most common and widely distributed natural risk to life and property worldwide, causing over £6B worth of damage to the UK since 2000. Climate projections are predicted to result in the increase of UK properties at risk from flooding. It thus becomes urgent to assess the possible impact of these changes on extreme high flows in particular, and evaluate the uncertainties related to these projections. This paper aims to assess the changes in extreme runoff for the 1:100 year return period event across Great Britain as a result of climate change. It is based on the Future Flow database and analyses daily runoff over 1961-2098 for 281 gauging stations. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Generalized Pareto (GP) distribution functions are automatically fitted for 11 climate-change ensembles over the baseline (1961-1990) and the 2080s (2069-2098) for each gauging station. The analysis evaluates the uncertainty related to the Extreme Value (EV) distributions, and the uncertainty related to the climate model parameterization. Then it assesses return levels with combined uncertainties across Great Britain for both EV distributions. Ultimately, this work gives a national picture of extreme flows assessed by the two methods and allows a direct comparison between them. Results show that the GP distribution computes higher runoff estimates than the GEV distribution. Generally, the uncertainties associated with both distributions are similar, but the GP computes significantly higher uncertainties for stations in the south and southeast of England. From the baseline to the 2080s horizon, the GEV distribution shows variable runoff trends across Great Britain, while the GP distribution shows an increasing trend of return level estimate and uncertainties, especially in the northeast and southeast of England. The lowest climate model and extreme value uncertainty is generally seen across the west coast of Great Britain. In terms of uncertainty, with the GEV

  2. Vulnerability Assessment of Environmental and Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Al Jabal Al Akhdar, Sultanate of Oman

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammed Saif Al-Kalbani; Martin F. Price; Asma Abahussain; Mushtaque Ahmed; Timothy O'Higgins

    2014-01-01

    Climate change and its consequences present one of the most important threats to water resources systems which are vulnerable to such changes due to their limited adaptive capacity. Water resources in arid mountain regions, such as Al Jabal Al Akhdar; northern Sultanate of Oman, are vulnerable to the potential adverse impacts of environmental and climate change. Besides climatic change, current demographic trends, economic development and related land use changes are exerting pressures and ha...

  3. Shale gas. A provisional assessment of climate change and environmental impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report, commissioned by The Co-operative, provides a provisional review and assessment of the risks and benefits of shale gas development, with the aim of informing The Co-operative's position on this 'unconventional' fuel source. The analysis within the report addresses two specific issues associated with the extraction and combustion of shale gas. Firstly, it outlines potential UK and global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions arising from a range of scenarios building on current predictions of shale gas resources. Secondly, it explores the health and environmental risks associated with shale gas extraction. It should be stressed that a key issue in assessing these issues has been a paucity of reliable data. To date shale gas has only been exploited in the US and, while initial estimates have been made, it is difficult to quantify the possible resources in other parts of the globe, including the UK. Equally, information on health and environmental aspects is of variable quality and only now is there any systematic effort being undertaken to better understand these issues. Therefore, while every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information in the report, it can only be as accurate as the information on which it draws. It is clear however, that while shale gas extraction, at a global level, does not involve the high energy and water inputs at the scale of other unconventional fuels, such as oil derived from tar sands, it does pose significant potential risks to human health and the environment. Principally, the potential for hazardous chemicals to enter groundwater via the extraction process must be subject to more thorough research prior to any expansion of the industry being considered. Additionally, while being promoted as a transition route to a low carbon future, none of the available evidence indicates that this is likely to be the case. It is difficult to envisage any situation other than shale gas largely being used in addition to other

  4. A qualitative ecosystem assessment for different shrublands in western Europe under impact of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wessel, W.W.; Tietema, A.; Beier, C.;

    2004-01-01

    field manipulation experiments of the CLIMOOR and VULCAN projects. Goods and services of these shrublands mainly encompass biodiversity, various forms of recreation, conservation of culturally and historically important landscapes, groundwater as a drinking water source, and carbon sequestration...... vegetation. Similarly, warming increases and drought decreases the chances of nitrate pollution to the groundwater, which is often used as a drinking water source. Warming of the upland heathland in the UK increases its productivity, which might enable higher grazing densities leading to improved...... shrubland in Spain, both warming and drought led to a shift in the species composition of seedlings and recruitment, which might lead to a change in the plant community and a reduction in biodiversity. In the drought treatment, a decreasing soil carbon content may lead to a loss of biodiversity...

  5. A modelling methodology for assessing the impact of climate variability and climatic change on hydroelectric generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A new methodology relating basic climatic variables to hydroelectric generation was developed. The methodology can be implemented in large or small basins with any number of hydro plants. The method was applied to the Sacramento, Eel and Russian river basins in northern California where more than 100 hydroelectric plants are located. The final model predicts the availability of hydroelectric generation for the entire basin provided present and near past climate conditions, with about 90% accuracy. The results can be used for water management purposes or for analyzing the effect of climate variability on hydrogeneration availability in the basin. A wide range of results can be obtained depending on the climate change scenario used. (Author)

  6. Metrics to assess ecological condition, change, and impacts in sandy beach ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlacher, Thomas A; Schoeman, David S; Jones, Alan R; Dugan, Jenifer E; Hubbard, David M; Defeo, Omar; Peterson, Charles H; Weston, Michael A; Maslo, Brooke; Olds, Andrew D; Scapini, Felicita; Nel, Ronel; Harris, Linda R; Lucrezi, Serena; Lastra, Mariano; Huijbers, Chantal M; Connolly, Rod M

    2014-11-01

    Complexity is increasingly the hallmark in environmental management practices of sandy shorelines. This arises primarily from meeting growing public demands (e.g., real estate, recreation) whilst reconciling economic demands with expectations of coastal users who have modern conservation ethics. Ideally, shoreline management is underpinned by empirical data, but selecting ecologically-meaningful metrics to accurately measure the condition of systems, and the ecological effects of human activities, is a complex task. Here we construct a framework for metric selection, considering six categories of issues that authorities commonly address: erosion; habitat loss; recreation; fishing; pollution (litter and chemical contaminants); and wildlife conservation. Possible metrics were scored in terms of their ability to reflect environmental change, and against criteria that are widely used for judging the performance of ecological indicators (i.e., sensitivity, practicability, costs, and public appeal). From this analysis, four types of broadly applicable metrics that also performed very well against the indicator criteria emerged: 1.) traits of bird populations and assemblages (e.g., abundance, diversity, distributions, habitat use); 2.) breeding/reproductive performance sensu lato (especially relevant for birds and turtles nesting on beaches and in dunes, but equally applicable to invertebrates and plants); 3.) population parameters and distributions of vertebrates associated primarily with dunes and the supralittoral beach zone (traditionally focused on birds and turtles, but expandable to mammals); 4.) compound measurements of the abundance/cover/biomass of biota (plants, invertebrates, vertebrates) at both the population and assemblage level. Local constraints (i.e., the absence of birds in highly degraded urban settings or lack of dunes on bluff-backed beaches) and particular issues may require alternatives. Metrics - if selected and applied correctly - provide

  7. Assessing Impact of Climate Change on the Runoffs of Gilgel Abbay Watershed, the upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayele, H. S.; Li, M. H.; Tung, C. P.; Liu, T. M.

    2015-12-01

    Water is the most climate sensitive sector in changing climate. Hydrological vulnerability assessment is critical to the implementation of adaption measures. In this study, projections of 7 GCMs in association with high (RCP8.5) and medium low (RCP4.5) representative concentration path way from the CMPI5 (fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) for the period 2021-2040 and 2081-2100 were adopted to assess the impacts of climate change on the runoffs of Gilgel Abbay watershed, the upper Blue Nile basin, in Ethiopia. The GCMs selected were first screened in harmony with baseline climate statistics of study areas. Based on climate projections and statistical characteristics of historical weather data, a weather generator was employed to generate daily temperature and precipitation as inputs for the GWLF hydrological model to simulate runoffs. Changes of projected temperature and precipitation were analyzed to explain variations of evapotranspiration and influences on future runoffs. We found that, despite the fact that the projected magnitude varies among different GCMs, increasing in the wet and a decreasing in dry seasons runoffs were observed in both time windows, which mainly attributes to the increase of precipitations projected by most of GCMs. In contrast to great increases in runoffs, the increase of evapotranspiration by elevating temperature is less significant. The increasing runoffs in both time windows will provide more water inflow to the Lake Tana. On the other hand, the increase of precipitation in wet season makes the wet season wetter and implies higher possibility of flash floods. This will have deleterious consequences in the local community. Therefore, concerned water organizations in local, state, and federal levels shall be prepared to harness the opportunities with more water resources for utilization and management, as well as flood preventive measures.

  8. Dynamic Bayesian Networks as a Decision Support tool for assessing Climate Change impacts on highly stressed groundwater systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, José-Luis; Pulido-Velázquez, David; García-Aróstegui, José Luis; Pulido-Velázquez, Manuel

    2013-02-01

    SummaryBayesian Networks (BNs) are powerful tools for assessing and predicting consequences of water management scenarios and uncertain drivers like climate change, integrating available scientific knowledge with the interests of the multiple stakeholders. However, among their major limitations, the non-transient treatment of the cause-effect relationship stands out. A Decision Support System (DSS) based on Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) is proposed here aimed to palliate that limitation through time slicing technique. The DSS comprises several classes (Object-Oriented BN networks), especially designed for future 5 years length time steps (time slices), covering a total control period of 30 years (2070-2100). The DSS has been developed for assessing impacts generated by different Climate Change (CC) scenarios (generated from several Regional Climatic Models (RCMs) under two emission scenarios, A1B and A2) in an aquifer system (Serral-Salinas) affected by intensive groundwater use over the last 30 years. A calibrated continuous water balance model was used to generate hydrological CC scenarios, and then a groundwater flow model (MODFLOW) was employed in order to analyze the aquifer behavior under CC conditions. Results obtained from both models were used as input for the DSS, considering rainfall, aquifer recharge, variation of piezometric levels and temporal evolution of aquifer storage as the main hydrological components of the aquifer system. Results show the evolution of the aquifer storage for each future time step under different climate change conditions and under controlled water management interventions. This type of applications would allow establishing potential adaptation strategies for aquifer systems as the CC comes into effect.

  9. Genotoxicity changes in test plot soil: Impact on risk assessment at a contaminated site planning bioremediation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collie, S.L.; Donnelly, K.C. [Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

    1995-12-31

    Soil samples from test plots designed to investigate the suitability of biodegradation to reduce levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and pentachlorophenol (PCP) were collected and solvent-extracted throughout a four-month study. Samples were followed for contaminant concentration and genotoxicity. Test plots were constructed to represent four concentrations of contaminated soil. Although the highest PCP concentration plot was negative in the Salmonella/microsome plate incorporation both with and without metabolic activation at the beginning of the treatment period, these soils became cytotoxic by the end of the study when tested without metabolic activation, and chemical analysis indicated no degradation of PCP. The methanol extract from the lowest PCP concentration plot was positive in the plate incorporation assay at the beginning of the study with an average weighted activity of 29 revertants/gram soil without and 32 revertants/g with metabolic activation at the highest dose level. The mutagenic potential of the methanol extract of this soil increased to an average weighted activity of 306 revertants/g without and 291 revertants/g with metabolic activation, despite a reduction from 46 to below 10 {micro}g PCP/g soil. A human health risk assessment employing the current US/EPA method of incorporating chemical concentration data in calculating cancer risk was then compared with the level of risk that can be inferred from the corresponding bioassay data. These findings emphasize the need for careful remediation design as this step will prove critical in achieving both maximum biodegradation and protection of human health.

  10. Assessing the impact of changes in the electricity price structure on dairy farm energy costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Choosing electricity tariffs with a low off-peak rate results in financial savings. • Cost saving potential within an electricity tariff is the greatest on large farms. • Earlier AM milking with later PM milking helps reduce electricity consumption. - Abstract: This study aims to provide information on the changes in electricity consumption and costs on dairy farms, through the simulation of various electricity tariffs that may exist in the future and how these tariffs interact with changes in farm management (i.e. shifting the milking operation to an earlier or later time of the day). A previously developed model capable of simulating electricity consumption and costs on dairy farms (MECD) was used to simulate five different electricity tariffs (Flat, Day and Night, Time of Use Tariff 1 (TOU1), TOU2 and Real Time Pricing (RTP)) on three representative Irish dairy farms: a small farm (SF), a medium farm (MF) and a large farm (LF). The Flat tariff consisted of one electricity price for all time periods, the Day and Night tariff consisted of two electricity prices, a high rate from 09:00 to 00:00 h and a low rate thereafter. The TOU tariff structure was similar to that of the Day and Night tariff except that a peak price band was introduced between 17:00 and 19:00 h. The RTP tariff varied dynamically according to the electricity demand on the national grid. The model used in these simulations was a mechanistic mathematical representation of the electricity consumption that simulated farm equipment under the following headings; milk cooling system, water heating system, milking machine system, lighting systems, water pump systems and the winter housing facilities. The effect of milking start time was simulated to determine the effect on electricity consumption and costs at farm level. The earliest AM milking start time and the latest PM milking start time resulted in the lowest energy consumption. The difference between the lowest and highest

  11. Assessment of the impact of rising carbon dioxide and other potential climate changes on vegetation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The projected doubling of current levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) during the next century along with increases in other radiatively active gases have led to predictions of increases in global air temperature and shifts in precipitation patterns. Additionally, stratospheric ozone depletion may result in increased ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation incident at the Earth's surface in some areas. Since these changes in the Earth's atmosphere may have profound effects on vegetation, the objectives of this paper are to summarize some of the recent research on plant responses to [CO2], temperature and UV-B radiation. Elevated [CO2] increases photosynthesis and usually results in increased biomass, and seed yield. The magnitude of these increases and the specific photosynthetic response depends on the plant species, and are strongly influenced by other environmental factors including temperature, light level, and the availability of water and nutrients. While elevated [CO2] reduces transpiration and increases photosynthetic water-use efficiency, increasing air temperature can result in greater water use, accelerated plant developmental rate, and shortened growth duration. Experiments on UV-B radiation exposure have demonstrated a wide range of photo biological responses among plants with decreases in photosynthesis and plant growth among more sensitive species. Although a few studies have addressed the interactive effects of [CO2] and temperature on plants, information on the effects of UV-B radiation at elevated [CO2] is scarce. Since [CO2], temperature and UV-B radiation may increase concurrently, more research is needed to determine plant responses to the interactive effects of these environmental variables

  12. Coupled modeling approach to assess climate change impacts on groundwater recharge and adaptation in arid areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashemi, H.; Uvo, C. B.; Berndtsson, R.

    2015-10-01

    The effect of future climate scenarios on surface and groundwater resources was simulated using a modeling approach for an artificial recharge area in arid southern Iran. Future climate data for the periods of 2010-2030 and 2030-2050 were acquired from the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM 3.1) for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1. These scenarios were adapted to the studied region using the delta-change method. A conceptual rainfall-runoff model (Qbox) was used to simulate runoff in a flash flood prone catchment. The model was calibrated and validated for the period 2002-2011 using daily discharge data. The projected climate variables were used to simulate future runoff. The rainfall-runoff model was then coupled to a calibrated groundwater flow and recharge model (MODFLOW) to simulate future recharge and groundwater hydraulic heads. As a result of the rainfall-runoff modeling, under the B1 scenario the number of floods is projected to slightly increase in the area. This in turn calls for proper management, as this is the only source of fresh water supply in the studied region. The results of the groundwater recharge modeling showed no significant difference between present and future recharge for all scenarios. Owing to that, four abstraction and recharge scenarios were assumed to simulate the groundwater level and recharge amount in the studied aquifer. The results showed that the abstraction scenarios have the most substantial effect on the groundwater level and the continuation of current pumping rate would lead to a groundwater decline by 18 m up to 2050.

  13. System and scenario choices in the life cycle assessment of a building – changing impacts of the environmental profile

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Freja; Birgisdóttir, Harpa; Birkved, Morten

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a life cycle assessment (LCA) case study of an office building. The case study investigates how the setting of free parameters (adopted from the CEN/TC 350 standards) influences the results of the building’s LCA in the DGNB certification scheme for sustainable buildings. The...... parameters concern the reference study period and the energy supply scenarios. Furthermore, a set of toxicological impact categories are included in the assessment to test whether the toxicological impact potentials follow the same trends as the impact categories already included in the DGNB methodology...

  14. USGCRP 2016: The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This assessment strengthens and expands our understanding of climate-related health impacts by providing a more definitive description of climate-related health burdens in the United States. It builds on the 2014 USGCRP National Climate Assessment and reviews and synthesizes key ...

  15. Impact assessment revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thiele, Jan; Kollmann, Johannes Christian; Markussen, Bo;

    2010-01-01

    The theoretical underpinnings of the assessment of invasive alien species impacts need to be improved. At present most approaches are unreliable to quantify impact at regional scales and do not allow for comparison of different invasive species. There are four basic problems that need to be...... addressed: (1) Some impacted ecosystem traits are spatially not additive; (2) invader effects may increase non-linearly with abundance or there may be effect thresholds impairing estimates of linear impact models; (3) the abundance and impact of alien species will often co-vary with environmental variation......; and (4) the total invaded range is an inappropriate measure for quantifying regional impact because the habitat area available for invasion can vary markedly among invasive species. Mathematical models and empirical data using an invasive alien plant species (Heracleum mantegazzianum) indicate that...

  16. Assessing water resources adaptive capacity to climate change impacts in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America

    OpenAIRE

    Hamlet, A F

    2010-01-01

    Climate change impacts in Pacific Northwest Region of North America (PNW) are projected to include increasing temperatures and changes in the seasonality of precipitation (increasing precipitation in winter, decreasing precipitation in summer). Changes in precipitation are also spatially varying, with the northwestern parts of the region generally experiencing greater increases in cool season precipitation than the southeastern parts. These changes in climate are projected to cause loss of sn...

  17. Assessing water resources adaptive capacity to climate change impacts in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America

    OpenAIRE

    Hamlet, A F

    2011-01-01

    Climate change impacts in Pacific Northwest Region of North America (PNW) are projected to include increasing temperatures and changes in the seasonality of precipitation (increasing precipitation in winter, decreasing precipitation in summer). Changes in precipitation are also spatially varying, with the northwestern parts of the region generally experiencing greater increases in cool season precipitation than the southeastern parts. These changes in climate are projected to cause loss of sn...

  18. Assessing climate change impacts on the rape stem weevil, Ceutorhynchus napi Gyll., based on bias- and non-bias-corrected regional climate change projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junk, J.; Ulber, B.; Vidal, S.; Eickermann, M.

    2015-11-01

    Agricultural production is directly affected by projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation. A multi-model ensemble of regional climate change projections indicated shifts towards higher air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns during the summer and winter seasons up to the year 2100 for the region of Goettingen (Lower Saxony, Germany). A second major controlling factor of the agricultural production is the infestation level by pests. Based on long-term field surveys and meteorological observations, a calibration of an existing model describing the migration of the pest insect Ceutorhynchus napi was possible. To assess the impacts of climate on pests under projected changing environmental conditions, we combined the results of regional climate models with the phenological model to describe the crop invasion of this species. In order to reduce systematic differences between the output of the regional climate models and observational data sets, two different bias correction methods were applied: a linear correction for air temperature and a quantile mapping approach for precipitation. Only the results derived from the bias-corrected output of the regional climate models showed satisfying results. An earlier onset, as well as a prolongation of the possible time window for the immigration of Ceutorhynchus napi, was projected by the majority of the ensemble members.

  19. Country Case Study on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Assessment in Antigua and Barbuda Water Resources Management

    OpenAIRE

    Damhaug, T.; Fernandez, J. (Javier)

    1998-01-01

    This Report is a summary of findings from a mission to Antigua & Barbuda August 12 - 16, 1997. The quality and quantity of fresh water resources in Antigua and Barbuda are particularly vulnerable to climate change. The study addressed the following interconnected climate change issues (i) impacts on the national hydrological cycle and water resources availability (ii) impact on water demand and water supply economics and (iii) necessary adaptation measures to build the country's preparedness ...

  20. Coupled Ground- and Space-Based Assessment of Regional Inundation Dynamics to Assess Impact of Local and Upstream Changes on Evaporation in Tropical Wetlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Schwerdtfeger

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Modifications of human land use and climate change are known to be a threat for the health and proper functioning of tropical wetlands. They interfere with the seasonal flood pulse, which is seen as the most important driver for biodiversity and directly controls evaporation. In order to investigate the impact of local and upstream changes on wetlands, a regional assessment of evaporation is crucial but challenging in such often remote and poorly gauged ecosystems. Evaporation is the major water balance component of these wetlands and links the flood pulse with the ecosystem. It can therefore be seen as a proxy for their functioning. In the last decades, information from space became an important data source to assess remote wetland areas. Here, we developed a new approach to quantify regional evaporation driven by inundation dynamics as its dominant control. We used three water and vegetation indices (mNDWI (modified Normalized Difference Water Index, NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, and EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer surface reflectance products to assess regional inundation dynamics between the dry and wet seasons. Two years of continual in situ water level measurements at different locations in our study area, the Pantanal wetland of South America, provided the reference to evaluate our method. With process-based modeling that used the inundation dynamics to determine the water available for evaporation, we were able to estimate actual evaporation (AET on a regional scale. Relating AET to changes in discharge due to upstream flow modifications and on local precipitation over the last 13 years, we found that the Pantanal is more vulnerable to alternated inundation dynamics than to changes in local precipitation. We concluded that coupling ground- and space-based information in this remote wetland area is a valuable first step to investigate the status of the Pantanal

  1. A probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts on yield and nitrogen leaching from winter wheat in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Børgesen, Christen Duus; Olesen, Jørgen E

    2011-01-01

    trends in mean yields and mean N leaching. The impacts of the uncertainty in climate change were higher for loamy sandy soil than for sandy soils due to generally higher yield levels for loamy sandy soils. There were large differences between soil types in response to climate change, illustrating the...... precipitation, where the same correction was applied to the baseline weather data for all days in the year, and method B used seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature to correct the baseline weather data. Based on climate change projections for the time span 2000 to 2100 and two soil types, the mean...... impact and the uncertainty of the climate change projections were analysed. Combining probability density functions of climate change projections with crop model simulations, the uncertainty and trends in nitrogen (N) leaching and grain yields with climate change were quantified. The uncertainty of...

  2. Is Environmental Impact Assessment fulfilling its potential?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2014-01-01

    One of the topics receiving much attention in recent years is climate change and the potential of its integration in impact assessment, both in terms of achieving mitigation and adaptation. Renewable energy projects are part of the efforts to mitigate climate change, replacing the use of fossil...... fuel with CO2-neutral energy sources. A variety of these projects are subject to environmental impact assessment (EIA), which raises the following questions: What role does an impact assessment play? When is the project environmentally friendly? How are climate change-related impacts assessed...

  3. Vulnerability assessment of southern coastal areas of Iran to sea level rise: evaluation of climate change impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Goharnejad

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Recent investigations have demonstrated global sea level rise as being due to climate change impact. Probable changes in sea level rise need to be evaluated so that appropriate adaptive strategies can be implemented. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on sea level rise along the Iranian south coast. Climatic data simulated by a GCM (General Circulation Model named CGCM3 under two-climate change scenarios A1b and A2 are used to investigate the impact of climate change. Among the different variables simulated by this model, those of maximum correlation with sea level changes in the study region and least redundancy among themselves are selected for predicting sea level rise by using stepwise regression. Two Discrete Wavelet artificial Neural Network (DWNN models and a Discrete Wavelet Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference system (DWANFIS are developed to explore the relationship between selected climatic variables and sea level changes. In these models, wavelets are used to disaggregate the time series of input and output data into different components. ANFIS/ANN are then used to relate the disaggregated components of predictors and predictand (sea level to each other. The results show a significant rise in sea level in the study region under climate change impact, which should be incorporated into coastal area management.

  4. Using niche-based modelling to assess the impact of climate change on tree functional diversity in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thuiller, Wilfried; Lavorel, Sandra; Sykes, Martin T.;

    2006-01-01

    Rapid anthropogenic climate change is already affecting species distributions and ecosystem functioning worldwide. We applied niche-based models to analyse the impact of climate change on tree species and functional diversity in Europe. Present-day climate was used to predict the distributions...

  5. ASSESSMENT OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE UPON SURFACE WATER RESOURCES IN THE PRAHOVA RIVER BASIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. RETEGAN

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present research is the determination of the impact of possible climatic changes in the 21st century upon surface water resources in the Prahova river basin using the WatBal model (a mathematical-hydrological water-balance model. The analyzed river basin covers an area of 3682 km² and is located outside the curvature of the Carpathian Mountains, in an area where the altitude varies between 60 m and 2500 m. In accordance with the altitude, the annual precipitation varies from approximately 550 mm/year in the plain area to over 1000 mm/year in the mountain area and the evaporation-transpiration between 850 mm/year in the plain area to 500 mm/year in the high areas. On the other hand, due to a very high variability of weather conditions, droughts, as well as excessive humidity periods, may occur during the year. WatBal is an integrated water balance model developed for assessing the impact of climate changes on a river basin runoff. This model has essentially two main modelling components. The first is the water balance component that uses continuous functions to describe water movement into and out of a conceptualized basin. The second component is the computation of the potential evaporation-transpiration processes. Monthly data series recorded at 5 weather stations and 1 runoff gauging-station during the 1961-2007 period have been used for the calibration of the WatBal model to the local conditions of the area. Finally, the paper focuses on the values of the mean monthly discharges at Adâncata river station on the Prahova River, estimated in the above-mentioned hypotheses. The paper analyses the influence of potential climatic changes, expressed by a wide range of climatic scenarios, upon the average water resources in the Prahova river basin. It has also been taken into consideration the below average water resources, expressed by the minimum-monthly average flow and characteristic to low-water periods as well as the above

  6. Assessing the impact of a downscaled climate change simulation on the fish fauna in an Inner-Alpine River.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matulla, C; Schmutz, S; Melcher, A; Gerersdorfer, T; Haas, P

    2007-12-01

    This study assesses the impact of a changing climate on fish fauna by comparing the past mean state of fish assemblage to a possible future mean state. It is based on (1) local scale observations along an Inner-Alpine river called Mur, (2) an IPCC emission scenario (IS92a), implemented by atmosphere-ocean global circulation model (AOGCM) ECHAM4/OPYC3, and (3) a model-chain that links climate research to hydrobiology. The Mur River is still in a near-natural condition and water temperature in summer is the most important aquatic ecological constraint for fish distribution. The methodological strategy is (1) to use downscaled air temperature and precipitation scenarios for the first half of the twenty-first century, (2) to establish a model that simulates water temperature by means of air temperature and flow rate in order to generate water temperature scenarios, and (3) to evaluate the impact on fish communities using an ecological model that is driven by water temperature. This methodology links the response of fish fauna to an IPCC emission scenario and is to our knowledge an unprecedented approach. The downscaled IS92a scenarios show increased mean air temperatures during the whole year and increased precipitation totals during summer, but reduced totals for the rest of the annual cycle. These changes result in scenarios of increased water temperatures, an altered annual cycle of flow rate, and, in turn, a 70 m displacement in elevation of fish communities towards the river's head. This would enhance stress on species that rely on low water temperatures and coerce cyprinid species into advancing against retreating salmonids. Hyporhithral river sectors would turn into epipotamal sectors. Grayling (Thymallus thymallus) and Danube salmon (Hucho hucho), presently characteristic for the Mur River, would be superceded by other species. Native brown trout (Salmo trutta), already now under pressure of competition, may be at risk of losing its habitat in favour of

  7. Assessing the Impacts of Future Climate Change on Protected Area Networks: A Method to Simulate Individual Species' Responses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willis, Stephen; Hole, Dave; Collingham, Yvonne;

    2009-01-01

    Global climate change, along with continued habitat loss and fragmentation, is now recognized as being a major threat to future biodiversity. There is a very real threat to species, arising from the need to shift their ranges in the future to track regions of suitable climate. The Important Bird ...... change scenarios to highlight vulnerable species in IBAs in the future and allow practical recommendations to be made to enhance the IBA network and minimize the predicted impacts of climate change....

  8. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM). I: Model intercomparison with current land use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breuer, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Willems, P.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces the project on 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM)' that aims at investigating the envelope of predictions on changes in hydrological fluxes due to land use change. As part of a series of four papers, this paper outlines the motivation and setup of LUCHEM, and presents a model intercomparison for the present-day simulation results. Such an intercomparison provides a valuable basis to investigate the effects of different model structures on model predictions and paves the ground for the analysis of the performance of multi-model ensembles and the reliability of the scenario predictions in companion papers. In this study, we applied a set of 10 lumped, semi-lumped and fully distributed hydrological models that have been previously used in land use change studies to the low mountainous Dill catchment, Germany. Substantial differences in model performance were observed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies ranging from 0.53 to 0.92. Differences in model performance were attributed to (1) model input data, (2) model calibration and (3) the physical basis of the models. The models were applied with two sets of input data: an original and a homogenized data set. This homogenization of precipitation, temperature and leaf area index was performed to reduce the variation between the models. Homogenization improved the comparability of model simulations and resulted in a reduced average bias, although some variation in model data input remained. The effect of the physical differences between models on the long-term water balance was mainly attributed to differences in how models represent evapotranspiration. Semi-lumped and lumped conceptual models slightly outperformed the fully distributed and physically based models. This was attributed to the automatic model calibration typically used for this type of models. Overall, however, we conclude that there was no superior model if several measures of model

  9. Economic impacts of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Tol, Richard S.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change will probably have a limited impact on the economy and human welfare in the 21st century. The initial impacts of climate change may well be positive. In the long run, the negative impacts dominate the positive ones. Negative impacts will be substantially greater in poorer, hotter, and lower-lying countries. Poverty reduction complements greenhouse gas emissions reduction as a means to reduce climate change impacts. Climate change may affect the growth rate of the economy and ma...

  10. Assessment of the Impacts of Land Use Changes on Nonpoint Source Pollution Inputs Upstream of the Three Gorges Reservoir

    OpenAIRE

    Huicai Yang; Guoqiang Wang; Yan Yang; Baolin Xue; Binbin Wu

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, land use upstream of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) has changed significantly because of the TGR project. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was examined for its ability to assess relationships between land use changes and nonpoint pollutant indexes upstream of the TGR. Results indicated that the SWAT model, calibrated with the adjusted parameters, could successfully reproduce the nonpoint indexes at the water quality monitoring sites in the two ...

  11. Assessment of groundwater input and water quality changes impacting natural vegetation in the Loxahatchee River and floodplain ecosystem, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orem, William H.; Swarzenski, Peter W.; McPherson, Benjamin F.; Hedgepath, Marion; Lerch, Harry E.; Reich, Christopher; Torres, Arturo E.; Corum, Margo D.; Roberts, Richard E.

    2007-01-01

    The Loxahatchee River and Estuary are small, shallow, water bodies located in southeastern Florida. Historically, the Northwest Branch (Fork) of the Loxahatchee River was primarily a freshwater system. In 1947, the river inlet at Jupiter was dredged for navigation and has remained permanently open since that time. Drainage patterns within the basin have also been altered significantly due to land development, road construction (e.g., Florida Turnpike), and construction of the C-18 and other canals. These anthropogenic activities along with sea level rise have resulted in significant adverse impacts on the ecosystem over the last several decades, including increased saltwater encroachment and undesired vegetation changes in the floodplain. The problem of saltwater intrusion and vegetation degradation in the Loxahatchee River may be partly induced by diminished freshwater input, from both surface water and ground water into the River system. The overall objective of this project was to assess the seasonal surface water and groundwater interaction and the influence of the biogeochemical characteristics of shallow groundwater and porewater on vegetation health in the Loxahatchee floodplain. The hypothesis tested are: (1) groundwater influx constitutes a significant component of the overall flow of water into the Loxahatchee River; (2) salinity and other chemical constituents in shallow groundwater and porewater of the river floodplain may affect the distribution and health of the floodplain vegetation.

  12. Assessment of the impact on safety with regard to change in outage interval from 12 to 18 or 24 months at Gentilly-2 Nuclear Generating Station

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaillancourt, R.; Croteau, M.; Komljenovic, D.; Royer, M. [Hydro-Quebec, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); Bellil, A.; Joober, K. [ENAQ, (Canada); Abdul-Nour, G.; Darragi, M. [Univ. of Quebec in Trois-Rivieres, Trois-Rivieres, Quebec (Canada)

    2003-07-01

    This paper presents the methodology and preliminary results of an impact assessment, concerning safety, resulting from the increase in outage interval from 12 to 18 or 24 months at Gentilly-2 NPP. This change will result in the decrease of the frequency of periodic tests and preventive maintenance performed during planned outages, and modify safety design matrices and reliability studies results and conclusions. (author)

  13. Sustainable agricultural development in a rural area in the Netherlands? Assessing impacts of climate and socio-economic change at farm and landscape level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, P.; Bakker, M.M.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Alam, S.J.; Paas, W.H.; Kros, J.; Vries, de W.

    2015-01-01

    Changes in climate, technology, policy and prices affect agricultural and rural development. To evaluate whether this development is sustainable, impacts of these multiple drivers need to be assessed for multiple indicators. In a case study area in the Netherlands, a bio-economic farm model, an agen

  14. Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Land-Water-Ecosystem Quality in Polar and Mountainous Regions: A New Interregional Project (INT5153)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The INT5153 project aims to improve the understanding of the impact of climate change on fragile polar and mountainous ecosystems on both a local and global scale for their better management and conservation. Seven core and five related benchmark sites have been selected from different global regions for specific assessments of the impact of climate change with the following expected outcomes and outputs: Outcomes: • Improved understanding of the impact of climate change on the cryosphere in polar and mountainous ecosystems and its effects on landwater- ecosystem quality at both local and global scales. • Recommendations for improvement of regional policies for soil and agricultural water management, conservation, and environmental protection in polar and mountainous regions. Outputs: • Specific strategies to minimize the adverse effects of, and adapt to, reduced seasonal snow and glacier covered areas on land-water-ecosystem quality in polar and mountain regions across the world. • Enhanced interregional network of laboratories and institutions competent in the assessment of climate change impacts on the cryosphere and land-water-ecosystem quality, using isotopic and nuclear techniques. • Increased number of young scientists trained in the use of isotope and nuclear techniques to assess the impact of climate change on the cryosphere and land-water-ecosystem quality in polar and mountainous ecosystems. • Platform/database with global access for continuing work and monitoring of impact of climate change on fragile polar and mountainous ecosystems at local and global scales, as well as for communicating findings to policy makers and communities. • Improved understanding of the effects of climate change disseminated through appropriate publications, policy briefs, and through a dedicated internet platform. • Methodologies and protocols for investigations in specific ecosystems and conservation/adaptation measures for agriculture areas

  15. Development and Climate Change: A Mainstreaming Approach for Assessing Economic, Social, and Environmental Impacts of Adaptation Measures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

    2009-01-01

    representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. Within this context it is illustrated using three case studies...

  16. Infrastructure Improvements for Snowmelt Runoff Forecasting and Assessments of Climate Change Impacts on Water Supplies in the Rio Grande Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rango, A.; Steele, C. M.; Demouche, L.

    2009-12-01

    In the Southwest US, the southern Rocky Mountains provide a significant orographic barrier to prevailing moisture-laden Westerly winds, which results in snow accumulation and melt, both vitally important to the region’s water resources. The inherent variability of meteorological conditions in the Southwest, during both snowpack buildup and depletion, requires improved spatially-distributed data. The population of ground-based networks (SNOTEL, SCAN, and weather stations) is sparse and does not satisfactorily represent the variability of snow accumulation and melt. Remote sensing can be used to supplement data from ground networks, but the most frequently available remotely sensed product with the highest temporal and spatial resolution, namely snow cover, only provides areal data and not snow volume. Fortunately, the Snowmelt Runoff Model(SRM), which was developed in mountainous regions of the world, including the Rio Grande basin, accepts snow covered area as one of its major input variables along with temperature and precipitation. With the growing awareness of atmospheric warming and the southerly location of Southwest watersheds, it has become apparent that the effects of climate change will be especially important for Southwestern water users. The NSF-funded EPSCoR project “Climate Change Impacts on New Mexico’s Mountain Sources of Water” (started in 2009) has focused on improving hydrometeorological measurements, developing basin-wide and sub-basin snow cover mapping methods, generating snowmelt runoff simulations, forecasts, and long-term climate change assessments, and informing the public of the results through outreach and educational activities. Five new SNOTEL and four new SCAN sites are being installed in 2009-2010 and 12 existing basic SNOTEL sites are being upgraded. In addition, 30 automated precipitation gages are being added to New Mexico measurement networks. The first phase of snow mapping and modeling has focused on four sub basins

  17. Assessing the Impact of Changes in Extreme Precipitation Events on Landslide Occurrence and Resultant Human Cost (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markuzon, N.; Slesnick, C.; Bellugi, D. G.; Leidy, E.; O'Gorman, P. A.; Perron, J.; Regan, J.; Schlosser, C. A.; West, J.

    2013-12-01

    supervised machine learning methods, we have thus far identified subsets of weather conditions that lead to a significantly higher landslide incidence, and have developed statistically predictive models for individual storms in both the Seattle and Himalayan regions. Based on these results, we find a much stronger dependence on antecedent moisture conditions for landslides in Seattle than in the Himalayans. We are extending the newly developed data-driven models to assess which slides will have the most severe impacts on humans using both dollar estimates of damage and a newly developed landslide intensity scale. The models identify the factors that go into creating a landslide of specific damage intensity using historical landslide records in Oregon and their respective damage reports. Results from these efforts will be used to identify areas that are particularly prone to high value losses.

  18. Assessing the impacts of combined climate and land use changes for water availability and demands in a Mediterranean watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacinto, Rita; Nunes, João Pedro; Santos, Juliana

    2014-05-01

    Mediterranean basins experience water scarcity issues due to the dry climate associated with the need for agricultural irrigation and recurrent severe drought episodes. Recent land use changes have increased the pressure over water resources due to an expansion of irrigation. Global climate change is expected to bring forth a drier climate, which may simultaneously lead to higher irrigation demands and less water to sustain them, which would be a great management challenge. The issues surrounding climate and associated land use changes were addressed for the Xarrama basin in southern Portugal. This is a region where there is already a large amount of irrigation, mostly consisting of corn and rice fields, but recent trends point to an increase of drip-irrigation in olives and vineyards. The water management strategies for this region assume water transfers from the larger Alqueva reservoir, without taking into account the impacts of these future changes which might introduce additional evapotranspiration losses while decreasing the amount of available water both in Xarrama and Alqueva. Future climate and land-use scenarios were downscaled to the basin level, the latter taking into account local land-use change trends in recent decades. Downscaling based on local tendencies allowed detailed land use changes for agriculture and forest (the main land uses for this region), i.e. the most likely types of crops and trees to be introduced or replaced. The results of local tendencies scenarios reflect the SRES tendencies for Europe, namely agricultural abandonment and increased biofuel production, with species adapted to this climatic region. These scenarios are the first for this region with highly detailed information about land use change scenarios under climate change. The SWAT eco-hydrological model is being applied to quantify the individual impact of climate and land-use change scenarios on both water availability and demands, and the synergies between both. This

  19. Methodology for Environmental Impact Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report is an appendix to 'Environmental Impact Assessment Interim storage, encapsulation and disposal of spent nuclear fuel'. The appendix presents the methodology and criteria used in support investigations to conduct impact assessments

  20. Assessment of potential climate change impacts on peatland dissolved organic carbon release and drinking water treatment from laboratory experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Catchments draining peat soils provide the majority of drinking water in the UK. Over the past decades, concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) have increased in surface waters. Residual DOC can cause harmful carcinogenic disinfection by-products to form during water treatment processes. Increased frequency and severity of droughts combined with and increased temperatures expected as the climate changes, have potentials to change water quality. We used a novel approach to investigate links between climate change, DOC release and subsequent effects on drinking water treatment. We designed a climate manipulation experiment to simulate projected climate changes and monitored releases from peat soil and litter, then simulated coagulation used in water treatment. We showed that the ‘drought’ simulation was the dominant factor altering DOC release and affected the ability to remove DOC. Our results imply that future short-term drought events could have a greater impact than increased temperature on DOC treatability. - Highlights: ► We model realistic temperature and moisture changes on peat and surface vegetation. ► Quantity, quality and treatability changes of dissolved organic carbon were examined. ► Moisture has significantly greater influence than temperature on DOC production. ► Dry conditions alter treatability of DOC released from surface litter. ► Droughts have greater impact on water treatment than short-term heat waves alone. - Future drought events are likely to alter soil moisture, which predominately controls production of peat-derived dissolved organic carbon and subsequently drinking water quality.

  1. Assessing water resources adaptive capacity to climate change impacts in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlet, A. F.

    2011-05-01

    Climate change impacts in Pacific Northwest Region of North America (PNW) are projected to include increasing temperatures and changes in the seasonality of precipitation (increasing precipitation in winter, decreasing precipitation in summer). Changes in precipitation are also spatially varying, with the northwestern parts of the region generally experiencing greater increases in cool season precipitation than the southeastern parts. These changes in climate are projected to cause loss of snowpack and associated streamflow timing shifts which will increase cool season (October-March) flows and decrease warm season (April-September) flows and water availability. Hydrologic extremes such as the 100 yr flood and extreme low flows are also expected to change, although these impacts are not spatially homogeneous and vary with mid-winter temperatures and other factors. These changes have important implications for natural ecosystems affected by water, and for human systems. The PNW is endowed with extensive water resources infrastructure and well-established and well-funded management agencies responsible for ensuring that water resources objectives (such as water supply, water quality, flood control, hydropower production, environmental services, etc.) are met. Likewise, access to observed hydrological, meteorological, and climatic data and forecasts is in general exceptionally good in the United States and Canada, and is often supported by federally funded programs that ensure that these resources are freely available to water resources practitioners, policy makers, and the general public. Access to these extensive resources support the argument that at a technical level the PNW has high capacity to deal with the potential impacts of natural climate variability on water resources. To the extent that climate change will manifest itself as moderate changes in variability or extremes, we argue that existing water resources infrastructure and institutional arrangements

  2. Assessing water resources adaptive capacity to climate change impacts in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. F. Hamlet

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change impacts in Pacific Northwest Region of North America (PNW are projected to include increasing temperatures and changes in the seasonality of precipitation (increasing precipitation in winter, decreasing precipitation in summer. Changes in precipitation are also spatially varying, with the northwestern parts of the region generally experiencing greater increases in cool season precipitation than the southeastern parts. These changes in climate are projected to cause loss of snowpack and associated streamflow timing shifts which will increase cool season (October–March flows and decrease warm season (April–September flows and water availability. Hydrologic extremes such as the 100 yr flood and extreme low flows are also expected to change, although these impacts are not spatially homogeneous and vary with mid-winter temperatures and other factors. These changes have important implications for natural ecosystems affected by water, and for human systems.

    The PNW is endowed with extensive water resources infrastructure and well-established and well-funded management agencies responsible for ensuring that water resources objectives (such as water supply, water quality, flood control, hydropower production, environmental services, etc. are met. Likewise, access to observed hydrological, meteorological, and climatic data and forecasts is in general exceptionally good in the United States and Canada, and is often supported by federally funded programs that ensure that these resources are freely available to water resources practitioners, policy makers, and the general public.

    Access to these extensive resources support the argument that at a technical level the PNW has high capacity to deal with the potential impacts of natural climate variability on water resources. To the extent that climate change will manifest itself as moderate changes in variability or extremes, we argue that existing water resources

  3. Assessing water resources adaptive capacity to climate change impacts in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. F. Hamlet

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Climate change impacts in Pacific Northwest Region of North America (PNW are projected to include increasing temperatures and changes in the seasonality of precipitation (increasing precipitation in winter, decreasing precipitation in summer. Changes in precipitation are also spatially varying, with the northwestern parts of the region generally experiencing greater increases in cool season precipitation than the southeastern parts. These changes in climate are projected to cause loss of snowpack and associated streamflow timing shifts which will increase cool season (October–March flows and decrease warm season (April–September flows and water availability. Hydrologic extremes such as the 100 year flood and extreme low flows are also expected to change, although these impacts are not spatially homogeneous and vary with mid-winter temperatures and other factors. These changes have important implications for natural ecosystems affected by water, and for human systems.

    The PNW is endowed with extensive water resources infrastructure and well-established and well-funded management agencies responsible for ensuring that water resources objectives (such as water supply, water quality, flood control, hydropower production, environmental services, etc. are met. Likewise, access to observed hydrological, meteorological, and climatic data and forecasts is in general exceptionally good in the United States and Canada, and access to these products and services is often supported by federally funded programs that ensure that these resources are available to water resources practitioners, policy makers, and the general public.

    Access to these extensive resources support the argument that at a technical level the PNW has high capacity to deal with the potential impacts of natural climate variability on water resources. To the extent that climate change will manifest itself as moderate changes in variability or extremes, we argue that

  4. The impacts of biofuel targets on land-use change and food supply : a global CGE assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Timilsina, Govinda R.; John C. Beghin; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Mevel, Simon

    2010-01-01

    This study analyzes the long-term impacts of large-scale expansion of biofuels on land-use change, food supply and prices, and the overall economy in various countries or regions using a global computable general equilibrium model, augmented by a land-use module and detailed representation of biofuel sectors. The study finds that an expansion of global biofuel production to meet currently ...

  5. Climate change impact assessment on various components of the hydrological regime of the Malše river basin

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Němečková, Soňa; Slámová, Romana; Šípek, Václav

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 59, č. 2 (2011), s. 131-143. ISSN 0042-790X R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300600901; GA MŽP(CZ) SP/1A6/151/07 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20600510 Keywords : climate change * hydrological modelling * hydrological cycle Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 0.340, year: 2011

  6. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Colorado Agriculture Using an Equilibrium Displacement Mathematical Programming Model

    OpenAIRE

    Eihab Fathelrahman; Amalia Davies; Stephen Davies; James Pritchett

    2014-01-01

    This research models selected impacts of climate change on Colorado agriculture several decades in the future, using an Economic Displacement Mathematical Programming model. The agricultural economy in Colorado is dominated by livestock, which accounts for 67% of total receipts. Crops, including feed grains and forages, account for the remainder. Most agriculture is based on irrigated production, which depends on both groundwater, especially from the Ogallala aquifer, and surface water that c...

  7. Reducing the Vulnerability of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change : Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options

    OpenAIRE

    Sutton, William R.; Srivastava, Jitendra P.; James E. Neumann; Strzępek, Kenneth M.; Brent B. Boehlert

    2013-01-01

    Agricultural production is inextricably tied to climate, making agriculture one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. In countries such as the Former Yugoslav Republic (FYR) of Macedonia, the risks of climate change for the agricultural sector are a particularly immediate and important problem because the majority of the rural population depends either directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihoods. Climate impacts can therefore undermine progress that has been m...

  8. The Northern Climate Exchange Gap Analysis Project : an assessment of the current state of knowledge about the impacts of climate change in northern Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Northern Climate ExChange (NCE) Gap Analysis Project was launched in 1999 with an objective to assess the state of knowledge on climate change in northern Canada. Resulting products of the project have included the Infosource Database, an on-line database of published climate change research related to the Canadian North, the Directory of Contacts, another on-line database of interested parties to climate change issues, and a set of tables that rate the level of available information on climate change as it relates to natural, economic and community systems. Other products include a report of a workshop on climate change research, 2 reports assessing the level of traditional northern knowledge about climate change, 2 reports assessing the completeness and value of the Infosource Database, a web site for NCE, and this report. All products are available to the public on the Internet or on a CD-ROM. The NCE Gap Analysis Project has shown there are inequalities in the amount of information across different systems, and that there is more knowledge on predicted temperature changes than for other climate components. The study notes that there are strong regional trends for compiled knowledge, with some regions having been better studied than others. The project revealed that traditional knowledge of climate change has not been well documented, and that more information exists about climate change impacts on biological systems with an economic component than those without economic significance. refs., tabs., figs

  9. Application of a stochastic weather generator to assess climate change impacts in a semi-arid climate: The Upper Indus Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsythe, N.; Fowler, H. J.; Blenkinsop, S.; Burton, A.; Kilsby, C. G.; Archer, D. R.; Harpham, C.; Hashmi, M. Z.

    2014-09-01

    Assessing local climate change impacts requires downscaling from Global Climate Model simulations. Here, a stochastic rainfall model (RainSim) combined with a rainfall conditioned weather generator (CRU WG) have been successfully applied in a semi-arid mountain climate, for part of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), for point stations at a daily time-step to explore climate change impacts. Validation of the simulated time-series against observations (1961-1990) demonstrated the models' skill in reproducing climatological means of core variables with monthly RMSE of operating in this mountainous context at the boundary between monsoonal and mid-latitude (westerly) weather systems. Of equal importance the model captures well the observed interannual variability as quantified by the first and last decile of 30-year climatic periods. Differences between a control (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) regional climate model (RCM) time-slice experiment were then used to provide change factors which could be applied within the rainfall and weather models to produce perturbed ‘future' weather time-series. These project year-round increases in precipitation (maximum seasonal mean change:+27%, annual mean change: +18%) with increased intensity in the wettest months (February, March, April) and year-round increases in mean temperature (annual mean +4.8 °C). Climatic constraints on the productivity of natural resource-dependent systems were also assessed using relevant indices from the European Climate Assessment (ECA) and indicate potential future risk to water resources and local agriculture. However, the uniformity of projected temperature increases is in stark contrast to recent seasonally asymmetrical trends in observations, so an alternative scenario of extrapolated trends was also explored. We conclude that interannual variability in climate will continue to have the dominant impact on water resources management whichever trajectory is followed. This demonstrates the need for

  10. Application of the HBV model for assessment of climate change impacts on the elements of hydrological cycle for the Struma River Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The model used in this report is a version of the HBV model developed for the project Climate Change and Energy Production, a Nordic project aimed at evaluating the impacts of climate change on the water resources. It has a simple vegetation parametrization including interception, temperature based evapotranspiration. calculations, lake evaporation, lake routing, glacier mass balance simulation, special functions for climate change simulations etc. The HBV model, originally developed at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute in the first half of the seventies (Bergstroem 1976) has gained widespread use for a large range of applications both in Scandinavia and beyond. It can be classified as a semi-distributed conceptual model. The version described in this report was developed for the Nordic project 'Climate change and Energy Production' (Saelthun 1996), as a synthesis of several versions used in the different Nordic countries. The main input variables are the average daily temperature, daily totals of the precipitation, the potential evapotranspiration and the daily discharges. The HBV model was applied for assessment of climate change impacts on the elements of hydrological cycle for the Struma river basin. The river Struma flows from North to South up to the Aegean Sea. Considerable part of the river basin is situated in northwest part of Bulgaria, heaving an area of more than 10 000 km2 and average elevation about 900m asl (cross-section Marino pole). The period of 16 years (1973-1988), four precipitation and temperature stations were used for the model parameters evaluation. The achieved value of R2 (Nash criterion) is 0.55. The climate change impact calculations (monthly values of temperatures change in oC and precipitation change in %) for two scenarios were used for the input data correction to the HBV model. The obtained results are promising and they show the potential possibility for the HBV model use to assess the climate change impacts

  11. Assessing impacts of climate change, sea level rise, and drainage canals on saltwater intrusion to coastal aquifer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Rasmussen

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater abstraction from coastal aquifers is vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise because both may potentially impact saltwater intrusion and hence groundwater quality depending on the hydrogeological setting. In the present study the impacts of sea level rise and changes in groundwater recharge are quantified for an island located in the Western Baltic Sea. Agricultural land dominates the western and central parts of the island, which geologically are developed as push moraine hills and a former lagoon (later wetland area behind barrier islands to the east. The low-lying central area of the island was extensively drained and reclaimed during the second half of the 19th century. Summer cottages along the beach on the former barrier islands dominate the eastern part of the island. The main water abstraction is for holiday cottages during the summer period (June–August. The water is abstracted from 11 wells drilled to a depth of around 20 m in the upper 5–10 m of a confined chalk aquifer. Increasing chloride concentrations have been observed in several abstraction wells and in some cases the WHO drinking water standard has been exceeded. Using the modeling package MODFLOW/MT3D/SEAWAT the historical, present and future freshwater–sea water distribution is simulated. The model is calibrated against hydraulic head observations and validated against geochemical and geophysical data from new investigation wells, including borehole logs, and from an airborne transient electromagnetic survey. The impact of climate changes on saltwater intrusion is found to be sensitive to the boundary conditions of the investigated system. For the flux-controlled aquifer to the west of the drained area only changes in groundwater recharge impacts the freshwater–sea water interface whereas sea level rise do not result in increasing sea water intrusion. However, on the barrier islands to the east of the reclaimed area below which the sea is

  12. Assessing impacts of climate change, sea level rise, and drainage canals on saltwater intrusion to coastal aquifer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Rasmussen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater abstraction from coastal aquifers is vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise because both may potentially impact saltwater intrusion and hence groundwater quality depending on the hydrogeological setting. In the present study the impacts of sea level rise and changes in groundwater recharge are quantified for an island located in the Western Baltic Sea. The low-lying central area of the investigated part of the island was extensively drained and reclaimed during the second half of the 19th century by a system of artificial drainage canals that significantly affects the flow dynamics of the area. The drinking water, mainly for summer cottages, is abstracted from 11 wells drilled to a depth of around 20 m into the upper 5–10 m of a confined chalk aquifer, and the total pumping is only 5–6% of the drainage pumping. Increasing chloride concentrations have been observed in several abstraction wells and in some cases the WHO drinking water standard has been exceeded. Using the modeling package MODFLOW/MT3D/SEAWAT the historical, present and future freshwater-sea water distribution is simulated. The model is calibrated against hydraulic head observations and validated against geochemical and geophysical data from new investigation wells, including borehole logs, and from an airborne transient electromagnetic survey. The impact of climate changes on saltwater intrusion is found to be sensitive to the boundary conditions of the investigated system. For the flux-controlled aquifer to the west of the drained area only changes in groundwater recharge impacts the freshwater–sea water interface whereas sea level rise does not result in increasing sea water intrusion. However, on the barrier islands to the east of the reclaimed area, below which the sea is hydraulically connected to the drainage canals, and the boundary of the flow system therefore controlled, the projected changes in sea level, groundwater recharge and stage of the

  13. Assessing climate change impacts on sorghum and millet yields in the Sudanian and Sahelian savannas of West Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sub-Saharan West Africa is a vulnerable region where a better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields is urgently needed. Here, we have applied the process-based crop model SARRA-H calibrated and validated over multi-year field trials and surveys at eight contrasting sites in terms of climate and agricultural practices in Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. The model gives a reasonable correlation with observed yields of sorghum and millet under a range of cultivars and traditional crop management practices. We applied the model to more than 7000 simulations of yields of sorghum and millet for 35 stations across West Africa and under very different future climate conditions. We took into account 35 possible climate scenarios by combining precipitation anomalies from −20% to 20% and temperature anomalies from +0 to +6 °C. We found that most of the 35 scenarios (31/35) showed a negative impact on yields, up to −41% for +6 °C/ − 20% rainfall. Moreover, the potential future climate impacts on yields are very different from those recorded in the recent past. This is because of the increasingly adverse role of higher temperatures in reducing crop yields, irrespective of rainfall changes. When warming exceeds +2 °C, negative impacts caused by temperature rise cannot be counteracted by any rainfall change. The probability of a yield reduction appears to be greater in the Sudanian region (southern Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, northern Togo and Benin), because of an exacerbated sensitivity to temperature changes compared to the Sahelian region (Niger, Mali, northern parts of Senegal and Burkina Faso), where crop yields are more sensitive to rainfall change. Finally, our simulations show that the photoperiod-sensitive traditional cultivars of millet and sorghum used by local farmers for centuries seem more resilient to future climate conditions than modern cultivars bred for their high yield potential (−28% versus

  14. Assessing climate change impacts on sorghum and millet yields in the Sudanian and Sahelian savannas of West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sultan, B.; Roudier, P.; Quirion, P.; Alhassane, A.; Muller, B.; Dingkuhn, M.; Ciais, P.; Guimberteau, M.; Traore, S.; Baron, C.

    2013-03-01

    Sub-Saharan West Africa is a vulnerable region where a better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields is urgently needed. Here, we have applied the process-based crop model SARRA-H calibrated and validated over multi-year field trials and surveys at eight contrasting sites in terms of climate and agricultural practices in Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. The model gives a reasonable correlation with observed yields of sorghum and millet under a range of cultivars and traditional crop management practices. We applied the model to more than 7000 simulations of yields of sorghum and millet for 35 stations across West Africa and under very different future climate conditions. We took into account 35 possible climate scenarios by combining precipitation anomalies from -20% to 20% and temperature anomalies from +0 to +6 °C. We found that most of the 35 scenarios (31/35) showed a negative impact on yields, up to -41% for +6 °C/ - 20% rainfall. Moreover, the potential future climate impacts on yields are very different from those recorded in the recent past. This is because of the increasingly adverse role of higher temperatures in reducing crop yields, irrespective of rainfall changes. When warming exceeds +2 °C, negative impacts caused by temperature rise cannot be counteracted by any rainfall change. The probability of a yield reduction appears to be greater in the Sudanian region (southern Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, northern Togo and Benin), because of an exacerbated sensitivity to temperature changes compared to the Sahelian region (Niger, Mali, northern parts of Senegal and Burkina Faso), where crop yields are more sensitive to rainfall change. Finally, our simulations show that the photoperiod-sensitive traditional cultivars of millet and sorghum used by local farmers for centuries seem more resilient to future climate conditions than modern cultivars bred for their high yield potential (-28% versus -40% for

  15. Land use change detection and impact assessment in Anzali international coastal wetland using multi-temporal satellite images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mousazadeh, Roya; Ghaffarzadeh, Hamidreza; Nouri, Jafar; Gharagozlou, Alireza; Farahpour, Mehdi

    2015-12-01

    Anzali is one of the 18 Iranian wetlands of international importance listed in Ramsar Convention. This unique ecosystem in the world with high ecological diversity is highly threatened by various factors such as pollutants, sedimentation, unauthorized development of urban infrastructure, over-harvesting of wetland resources, land use changes, and invasive species. Among which, one of the most challenging destructive factors, land use change, was scrutinized in this study. For this, remotely sensed data and Geographical Information System (GIS) were used to detect land changes and corresponding impacts on the study area over a 38-year period from 1975 to 2013.. Changes in the study area were traced in five dominant land-use classes at four time intervals of 1975, 1989, 2007, and 2013. Accordingly, changes in different categories were quantified using satellite images. The methodology adopted in this study includes an integrated approach of supervised classification, zonal and object-oriented image analyses. According to the Kappa coefficient of 0.84 for the land use map of 2013, the overall accuracy of the method was estimated at 89%, which indicated that this method can be useful for monitoring and behavior analysis of other Iranian wetlands. The obtained results revealed extensive land use changes over the study period. As the results suggest, between the years 1975 to 2013, approximately 6500 ha (∼69%) rangeland area degraded. Further, urban and agricultural areas have been extended by 2982 ha (∼74%) and 2228 ha (∼6%), respectively. This could leave a negative impact on water quality of the wetland. PMID:26614306

  16. Urban Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in Europe: A Case Study for Antwerp, Berlin and Almada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Catherine; Thomas, Bart

    2014-05-01

    Climate change is driven by global processes such as the global ocean circulation and its variability over time leading to changing weather patterns on regional scales as well as changes in the severity and occurrence of extreme events such as heat waves. For example, the summer 2003 European heat wave caused up to 70.000 excess deaths over four months in Central and Western Europe. As around 75% of Europe's population resides in urban areas, it is of particular relevance to examine the impact of seasonal to decadal-scale climate variability on urban areas and their populations. This study aims at downscaling the spatially coarse resolution CMIP5 climate predictions to the local urban scale and investigating the relation between heat waves and the urban-rural temperature increment (urban heat island effect). The resulting heat stress effect is not only driven by climatic variables but also impacted by urban morphology. Moreover, the exposure varies significantly with the geographical location. All this information is coupled with relevant socio-economic datasets such as population density, age structure, etc. focussing on human health. The analyses are conducted in the framework of the NACLIM FP7 project funded by the European Commission involving local stakeholders such as the cities of Antwerp (BE), Berlin (DE) and Almada (PT) represented by different climate and urban characteristics. The end-user needs have been consolidated in a climate services plan including the production of heat risk exposure maps and the analysis of various scenarios considering e.g. the uncertainty of the global climate predictions, urban expansion over time and the impact of mitigation measures such as green roofs. The results of this study will allow urban planners and policy makers facing the challenges of climate change and develop sound strategies for the design and management of climate resilient cities.

  17. Assessing Impacts of Disturbances and Climate Change on Carbon Stocks in Mexican Semidry Forests of the Yucatan Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Z.; Birdsey, R.; Johnson, K.; Dupuy, J. M.; Hernandez-Stefanoni, J. L.; Richardson, K.

    2014-12-01

    The spatially explicit biogeochemical model Forest-DNDC was used to estimate carbon dynamics with disturbances and climate change in secondary semidry forests in Yucatan Peninsula. The model was validated using observations from 276 field plots in a 350 km2 region of semi-deciduous forest surrounding the intensive monitoring site at Kaxil Kiuic, and it performed well with high performance efficiency (E=0.79, R2=0.83). The simulation results showed substantial spatial differences in biomass in the forests due to historical disturbance patterns and heterogeneous forest environments. The simulated impacts of the disturbances that occurred from 1998-2010 revealed an estimated loss of total biomass carbon storage of 154.7 Gg due mainly to about 12 km2 of forestland loss. The results from disturbance scenarios indicate that disastrous storms, which are not uncommon in the Yucatan Peninsula, can substantially impact carbon storage in a short time. However, warming can produce a long-term impact on carbon sequestration, due principally to the decrease in biomass carbon at a mean rate of over 100 kg ha-1yr-1 with an increase in temperature by 1 degree Celsius. The forests in this area are highly sensitive to warming due to a semidry climate where the evapotranspiration is higher than precipitation. Even if each degree of warming increase is accompanied by an increase in precipitation of 10%, the significant impact of warming cannot be dismissed.

  18. Local assessment of vulnerability to climate change impacts on water resources in the Upper Thukela River Basin, South Africa : Recommendations for Adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Andersson, Lotta ,; Wilk, Julie; Graham, Phil; Warburton, Michele

    2009-01-01

    This report originates from a project entitled Participatory Modelling for Assessment of Local Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Water Resources (PAMO), financed by the Swedish Development Agency and Research Links cooperation (NRF and the Swedish Research Council). The project is based on interactions between stakeholders in the Mhlwazini/Bergville area of the Thukela River basin, climate and water researchers from the University of KwaZulu-Natal (Pietermaritzburg Campus) and the ...

  19. The Impacts of Biofuels Targets on Land-Use Change and Food Supply: A Global Cge Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Timilsina, Govinda; John C. Beghin; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Mevel, Simon

    2010-01-01

    We analyze the long-term impacts of large-scale expansion of biofuels on land-use change, food supply and prices, and the overall economy in various countries or regions using a multi-country, multi-sector global computable general equilibrium model augmented with an explicit land-use module and detailed biofuel sectors. We find that an expansion of biofuel production to meet the existing or even higher targets in various countries would slightly reduce GDP at the global level but with mixed ...

  20. ASSESSMENT OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE UPON SURFACE WATER RESOURCES IN THE PRAHOVA RIVER BASIN

    OpenAIRE

    M. RETEGAN

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the present research is the determination of the impact of possible climatic changes in the 21st century upon surface water resources in the Prahova river basin using the WatBal model (a mathematical-hydrological water-balance model). The analyzed river basin covers an area of 3682 km² and is located outside the curvature of the Carpathian Mountains, in an area where the altitude varies between 60 m and 2500 m. In accordance with the altitude, the annual precipitation varies from a...

  1. The assessment of land use change impact on watersheds runoff using SWAT: case study of Urmia Lake in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jabbari, Anahita; Jarihani, Ben; Rezaie, Hossein

    2015-04-01

    Lake Urmia, long counted among the world's largest saltwater lakes, contains only 5% of the amount of water it did just 20 years ago. The decline is generally blamed on a combination of drought, increased water diversion for irrigated agriculture within the lake's watershed and land use mismanagement. It has been believed that land use changes in Lake Urmia basin is one of the most important factors in shrinkage of Urmia Lake in recent decades. Transforming the traditional agricultural practices (i.e., wheat) to the more water consuming practices (i.e., apple orchards) is one of the most important reasons increased agricultural water consumption in the watershed. In this study we assessed the effect of the land use changes of watershed in hydrological runoff processing in the Nazloo chai watershed, one of the most important river basins of the Urmia Lake basin. Actually the rapid and at the same time unreasonable transformations of land use in farm lands of Urmia lake sub basins, extremely has been raised the amount of blue water (surface or groundwater) consumption in watershed which leads to dramatic decrement of watershed runoff amounts. One of the most unfavorable consequences of land use change was changing the blue and green (rainwater insofar as it does not become runoff) water usage patterns in watershed, in addition to water use increment. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), one of the most important and reliable models which was used to model the rainfall runoff, has been used in current study. The land use maps were extracted from Landsat images archives for the most severe turning points in respect of land use change in the recent 30 years. After calibrating the model, several land use patterns of historical data were used in the model to produce the runoff. The results showed the strong relation between land use change and runoff reduction in the Lake Urmia basin.

  2. Introducing Health Impact Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mannheimer, L N; Gulis, G; Lehto, J;

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Intersectoral Action for Health (IAH) and its Health Impact Assessment (HIA) tool are built on collaboration between actors and sectors, requiring multidimensional and horizontal way of working. The study aims to analyse the enablers and barriers when such a new way of working and tool...... used by which the actual problems, the governmental actions (or non-actions) (politics) and the understanding, implementation and evaluation of the initiative (policy) could be analysed. All actors involved, civil servants, politicians, representatives of the local public health institute and...... researchers, were interviewed and made to answer a questionnaire. RESULTS: The results showed that there were a number of factors behind the initiation of HIA, which either delayed or accelerated the process. The problems identified were e.g. the prevailing traditional health care focus and the deteriorating...

  3. Social Impact Assessment in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Hansen, Anne Merrild; Lyhne, Ivar;

    2015-01-01

    Social impact assessment (SIA) is applied worldwide to assess social impacts of plans and projects. In Europe, directives on environmental assessment (EA) require attention to social impacts, however, there is a need to investigate the implementation in practise. To this end, we study three Danish...... cases, which are characterised by debates and conflicts on social issues. Analysis of the EA statements shows inclusion of a broad range of social impacts. However, the EAs do not fully match the concerns of the public, and social impacts are not always analysed in depth, mitigation measures are not...... suggested or are postponed and the geographical distribution of impacts assessed is biased towards including negative local impacts. We discuss the scope and handling of social impacts, and possible implications. Based on this, we conclude with the view that EA might do the job of handling social impacts in...

  4. Estimating live fuel status by drought indices: an approach for assessing local impact of climate change on fire danger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellizzaro, Grazia; Dubrovsky, Martin; Bortolu, Sara; Ventura, Andrea; Arca, Bachisio; Masia, Pierpaolo; Duce, Pierpaolo

    2014-05-01

    Mediterranean shrubs are an important component of both Mediterranean vegetation communities and understorey vegetation. They also constitute the surface fuels primarily responsible for the ignition and the spread of wildland fires in Mediterranean forests. Although fire spread and behaviour are dependent on several factors, the water content of live fuel plays an important role in determining fire occurrence and spread, especially in the Mediterranean shrubland, where live fuel is often the main component of the available fuel which catches fire. According to projections on future climate, an increase in risk of summer droughts is likely to take place in Southern Europe. More prolonged drought seasons induced by climatic changes are likely to influence general flammability characteristics of fuel, affecting load distribution in vegetation strata, floristic composition, and live and dead fuel ratio. In addition, variations in precipitation and mean temperature could directly affect fuel water status, and consequently flammability, and length of critical periods of high ignition danger for Mediterranean ecosystems. The main aim of this work was to propose a methodology for evaluating possible impacts of future climate change on moisture dynamic and length of fire danger period at local scale. Specific objectives were: i) evaluating performances of meteorological drought indices in describing seasonal pattern of live fuel moisture content (LFMC), and ii) simulating the potential impacts of future climate changes on the duration of fire danger period. Measurements of LFMC seasonal pattern of three Mediterranean shrub species were performed in North Western Sardinia (Italy) for 8 years. Seasonal patterns of LFMC were compared with the Drought Code of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index and the Keetch-Byram Drought Index. Analysis of frequency distribution and cumulative distribution curves were carried out in order to evaluate performance of codes and to identify

  5. Impacts Of Climate Change On Ecosystems Management In Africa: An Assessment Of Disaster Risk Management And Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndebele-Murisa, M. R.

    2015-12-01

    This paper is a synthesis of eight studies which demonstrate the interface between disaster risk management (DRM) and adaptation. The studies; conducted from November 2011 to July 2012 included diverse ecosystems from forests, coastlines, rural areas to a lake region and showed that climate change/variability are major factors among other factors such as deforestation and land degradation, unsustainable land use practices, overharvesting of natural products and invasive species encroachment that are causing changes in ecosystems. The most common extreme events reported included shifts in and shorter rainfall seasons, extended droughts, increased temperatures, extreme heat, heavy rainfall, flooding, inundation, strong winds and sea level rises. As a result of these climate phenomena, adverse impacts on ecosystems and communities were reported as biodiversity loss, reduced fish catch, reduced water for forests/agriculture/consumption, increased rough waves, coastal erosion/sediment deposition and lastly land/mud slides in order of commonality. In response to these impacts communities are practicing coping and adaptation strategies but there is a huge gap between proper DRM and adaptation. This is mainly because the adaptation is practiced as an aftermath with very little effort propelled towards proactive DRM or preparedness. In addition, national level policies are archaic and do not address the current environmental changes. This was demonstrated in Togo where wood energy potential is deteriorating at an unprecedented rate but is projected to increase between 6.4% and 101% in the near and far future if the national forest action plans are implemented; preventing an energy crisis in the country. This shows that appropriate legal and policy frameworks and well planned responses to projected extreme events and climate changes are crucial in order to prevent disasters and to achieve sustainable utilisation of resources in the continent.

  6. Opportunities and challenges in assessing climate change impacts on wind energy-a critical comparison of wind speed projections in California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Future climate change is expected to alter the spatial and temporal distribution of surface wind speeds (SWS), with associated impacts on electricity generation from wind energy. However, the predictions for the direction and magnitude of these changes hinge critically on the assessment methods used. Many climate change impact analyses, including those focused on wind energy, use individual climate models and/or statistical downscaling methods rooted in historical observations. Such studies may individually suggest an unrealistically high level of scientific certainty due to the absence of competing projections (over the same region, time period, etc). A new public data archive, the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), allows for a more comprehensive perspective on regional climate change impacts, here applied to three wind farm sites in California. We employ NARCCAP regional climate model data to estimate changes in SWS expected to occur in the mid-21st century at three wind farm regions: Altamont Pass, San Gorgonio Pass, and Tehachapi Pass. We examined trends in SWS magnitude and frequency using three different global/regional model pairs, focused on model evaluation, seasonal cycle, and long-term trends. Our results, while specific to California, highlight the opportunities and limitations in NARCCAP and other publicly available meteorological data sets for energy analysis, and the importance of using multiple models for climate change impact assessment. Although spatial patterns in current wind conditions agree fairly well among models and with NARR (North American Regional Reanalysis) data, results vary widely at our three sites of interest. This poor performance and model disagreement may be explained by complex topography, limited model resolution, and differences in model physics. Spatial trends and site-specific estimates of annual average changes (1980-2000 versus 2051-71) also differed widely across models. All models

  7. Assessing the impacts of changes in treatment technology on energy and greenhouse gas balances for organic waste and wastewater treatment using historical data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Jens Aage; Poulsen, Tjalfe

    2009-01-01

    Historical data on organic waste and wastewater treatment during the period of 1970ĝ€"2020 were used to assess the impact of treatment on energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) balances. The assessment included the waste fractions: Sewage sludge, food waste, yard waste and other organic waste (paper...... production from the remaining organic municipal waste. Wastewater treatment has changed from direct discharge of untreated wastewater to full organic matter and nutrient (N, P) removal combined with anaerobic digestion of the sludge for biogas production with power and heat generation. These changes in......, plastic, etc.). Data were collected from Aalborg, a municipality located in Northern Denmark. During the period from 1970ĝ€"2005, Aalborg Municipality has changed its waste treatment strategy from landfilling of all wastes toward composting of yard waste and incineration with combined heat and power...

  8. Impacts of Climate Change on Brazilian Agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Assad, Eduardo; Pinto, Hilton S.; Nassar, Andre; Harfuch, Leila; Freitas, Saulo; Farinelli, Barbara; Lundell, Mark; Erick C.M. Fernandes

    2013-01-01

    This report evaluates the requirements for an assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture to guide policy makers on investment priorities and phasing. Because agriculture is vital for national food security and is a strong contributor to Brazil's GDP growth, there is growing concern that Brazilian agriculture is increasingly vulnerable to climate variability and change. To meet nat...

  9. Using NASA Earth Science Datasets for National Climate Assessment Indicators: Urban Impacts of Heat Waves Associated with Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadoff, N.; Weber, S.; Zell, E. R.; de Sherbinin, A. M.

    2014-12-01

    Climate-induced heat waves have been increasing globally in the past 5-10 years and are projected to continue increasing throughout the 21st century. In urban areas, heat waves are exacerbated by the non-climate stressor of urban heat islands (UHIs). The vulnerability of a city's population to heat waves reflects exposure to extreme heat events, sensitivity of the population to impacts, such as adverse health effects, and adaptive capacity to prepare for and respond to heat waves. Socially and economically vulnerable populations are especially at risk to the impacts of heat waves, due to increasing energy costs, air pollution, and heat-related illness and mortality. NASA earth science datasets, combined with socioeconomic data, can be used to create indicators that characterize vulnerability to urban heat events and address the effectiveness of adaptation measures designed to reduce local temperatures. The indicator development process should include engagement from local stakeholders and end users from the onset to ensure local relevance and, ultimately, indicator uptake and sustainability. This presentation will explore the process of working with urban stakeholders in Philadelphia to develop a set of policy-relevant, interdisciplinary vulnerability indicators focused on extreme heat events in urban areas. Ambient and land surface temperature, land cover classifications, NDVI, and US Census data are used to create a basket of indicators that reflect urban heat wave duration and intensity, UHI exposure, socioeconomic vulnerability, and adaptation effectiveness. These indicators can be assessed at the city level and also comparatively among different parts of a city to help quantify and track heat wave impacts on vulnerable populations and the effectiveness of adaptation measures.

  10. Impact Assessment as Shared Learning

    OpenAIRE

    Paul N. Wilson

    2009-01-01

    Increased attention directed towards evidence-based aid clearly dominates evaluation discussions within the development community. All development agencies, but particularly non-governmental organizations (NGO), struggle with the requirements for rigorous impact assessments of their project/program interventions. Given the serious operational obstacles confronting impact assessments, any successful integration of impact assessments into ongoing and new NGO programs can gain from the adoption ...

  11. The future of environmental sustainability in the Taita Hills, Kenya: assessing potential impacts of agricultural expansion and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Maeda

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The indigenous cloud forests in the Taita Hills have suffered substantial degradation for several centuries due to agricultural expansion. Currently, only 1% of the original forested area remains preserved. Furthermore, climate change imposes an imminent threat for local economy and environmental sustainability. In such circumstances, elaborating tools to conciliate socioeconomic growth and natural resources conservation is an enormous challenge. This article tackles essential aspects for understanding the ongoing agricultural activities in the Taita Hills and their potential environmental consequences in the future. Initially, an alternative method is proposed to reduce uncertainties and costs for estimating agricultural water demand. The main characteristic of the approach proposed in this study is the use of satellite data to overcome data availability limitations. Furthermore, a modelling framework was designed to delineate agricultural expansion projections and evaluate the future impacts of agriculture on soil erosion and irrigation water demand. The results indicate that if current trends persist, agricultural areas will occupy roughly 60% of the study area by 2030. Rainfall erosivity is likely to increase during April and November due to climate change and slight decrease during March and May. Although the simulations indicate that climate change will likely increase total annual rainfall volumes during the following decades, irrigation requirements will continue to increase due to agricultural expansion. By 2030, new cropland areas may cause an increase of approximately 40% in the annual volume of water necessary for irrigation.

  12. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Colorado Agriculture Using an Equilibrium Displacement Mathematical Programming Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eihab Fathelrahman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This research models selected impacts of climate change on Colorado agriculture several decades in the future, using an Economic Displacement Mathematical Programming model. The agricultural economy in Colorado is dominated by livestock, which accounts for 67% of total receipts. Crops, including feed grains and forages, account for the remainder. Most agriculture is based on irrigated production, which depends on both groundwater, especially from the Ogallala aquifer, and surface water that comes from runoff derived from snowpack in the Rocky Mountains. The analysis is composed of a Base simulation, designed to represent selected features of the agricultural economy several decades in the future, and then three alternative climatic scenarios are run. The Base starts with a reduction in agricultural water by 10.3% from increased municipal and industrial water demand, and assumes a 75% increase in corn extracted-ethanol production. From this, the first simulation (S1 reduces agricultural water availability by a further 14.0%, for a combined decrease of 24.3%, due to climatic factors and related groundwater depletion. The second simulation (S2-WET describes wet year conditions, which negatively affect yields of irrigated corn and milking cows, but improves yields for important crops such as non-irrigated wheat and forages. In contrast, the third simulation (S3-DRY describes a drought year, which leads to reduced dairy output and reduced corn and wheat. Consumer and producer surplus losses are approximately $10 million in this simulation. The simulation results also demonstrate the importance of the modeling trade when studying climate change in a small open economy, and of linking crop and livestock activities to quantify overall sector effects. This model has not taken into account farmers’ adaptation strategies, which would reduce the climate impact on yields, nor has it reflected climate-induced shifts in planting decisions and production

  13. Nation-wide assessment of climate change impacts on crops in the Philippines and Peru as part of multi-disciplinary modelling framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture is vulnerable to environmental changes, and climate change has been recognized as one of the most devastating factors. In many developing countries, however, few studies have focused on nation-wide assessment of crop yield and crop suitability in the future, and hence there is a large pressure on science to provide policy makers with solid predictions for major crops in the countries in support of climate risk management policies and programmes. FAO has developed the tool MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change) where statistical climate downscaling is combined with crop yield projections under climate change scenarios. Three steps are required to get the results: 1. The historical meteorological data such as temperature and precipitation for about 30 years were collected, and future climates were statistically downscaled to the local scale, 2. The historical crop yield data were collected and regression functions were made to estimate the yield by using observed climatic data and water balance during the growing period for each crop, and 3. The yield changes in the future were estimated by using the future climate data, produced by the first step, as an input to the yield regression functions. The yield was first simulated at sub-national scale and aggregated to national scale, which is intended to provide national policies with adaptation options. The methodology considers future changes in characteristics of extreme weather events as the climate projections are on daily scale while crop simulations are on 10-daily scale. Yields were simulated with two greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs) for three GCMs per crop to account for uncertainties in projections. The crop assessment constitutes a larger multi-disciplinary assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture and vulnerability of livelihoods in terms of food security (e.g. water resources, agriculture market, household-level food security from socio

  14. Assessing the potential impact and uncertainty of climate, land use change and demographic trends on malaria transmission in Africa by 2050.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Adrian; Caporaso, Luca; Colon-Gonzalez, Felipe

    2014-05-01

    Previous analyses of data has shown that in addition to variability and longer term trends in climate variables, both land use change (LUC) and population mobility and urbanisation trends can impact malaria transmission intensities and socio-economic burden. With the new regional VECTRI dynamical malaria model it is now possible to examine these in an integrated modelling framework. Using 5 global climate models which were bias corrected using the WATCH data for the recent ISIMIP project, the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), population projections disaggregated from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) and Land use change from the HYDE model output used in the CMIP5 process, we construct a multi-member ensemble of malaria transmission intensity projections for 2050. The ensemble integrations indicate that climate has the leading impact on malaria changes, but that population growth and urbanisation can offset the effect of climate locally. LUC impacts can also be significant on the local scale but their assessment is highly uncertain and only indicative in this study. It is argued that the study should be repeated with a range of malaria models or VECTRI configurations in order to assess the additional uncertainty due to the malaria model assumptions.

  15. An assessment of the changing nature of the winter hydroclimate in eastern North America and its impacts on risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Kent

    2016-04-01

    The winter hydroclimate of eastern North America is characterized by a complex and spatially varying combination of snow and rain. Much of this complexity stems from the presence of Great Lakes that are a source of heat and moisture during the winter months. Lake effect snowfall can result in heavy snowfall in highly localized regions downstream of the lakes. In addition the average mean winter temperature in the region is close to freezing and so there is enhanced sensitivity as to the phase of the precipitation. The region has warmed by 1-2.5 oC during the winter over the past 30 years and so there is concern that the character of the winter hydroclimate may be changing. Here we use reanalysis fields as well as the results of AMIP model runs, with horizontal resolutions ranging from 100 km to 16 km, to investigate the changes that have occurred in the winter hydroclimate of the region. It is shown that a horizontal resolution below ~40 km is needed to resolve the observed spatial gradients in snowfall and rainfall in the region. Over the past 30 years, the mean and 95th percentile snowfall rates in the southern part of the region have decreased by as much as 20% with an increase of a similar magnitude in both these parameters in its northwest. There has also been an increase in the mean and 95th percentile rainfall rates across much the region that exceeds 100% in the vicinity of Lake Superior, the largest and most northern of the Great Lakes. These changes are attributed to the warming that the region has experienced and are expected to continue into the future. They have and will continue to impact a number of societal functions including winter road maintenance as well as influencing the management of property risks such as flooding.

  16. Integrated assessment of the impact of climate and land use changes on groundwater quantity and quality in the Mancha Oriental system (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Peña-Haro, S.; García-Prats, A.; Mocholi-Almudever, A. F.; Henriquez-Dole, L.; Macian-Sorribes, H.; Lopez-Nicolas, A.

    2015-04-01

    Climate and land use change (global change) impacts on groundwater systems cannot be studied in isolation. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes have a great impact on the water cycle and contaminant production and transport. Groundwater flow and storage are changing in response not only to climatic changes but also to human impacts on land uses and demands, which will alter the hydrologic cycle and subsequently impact the quantity and quality of regional water systems. Predicting groundwater recharge and discharge conditions under future climate and land use changes is essential for integrated water management and adaptation. In the Mancha Oriental system (MOS), one of the largest groundwater bodies in Spain, the transformation from dry to irrigated lands during the last decades has led to a significant drop of the groundwater table, with the consequent effect on stream-aquifer interaction in the connected Jucar River. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of water quantity and water quality is essential for a proper management of the system. On the one hand, streamflow depletion is compromising the dependent ecosystems and the supply to the downstream demands, provoking a complex management issue. On the other hand, the intense use of fertilizer in agriculture is leading to locally high groundwater nitrate concentrations. In this paper we analyze the potential impacts of climate and land use change in the system by using an integrated modeling framework that consists in sequentially coupling a watershed agriculturally based hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) with a groundwater flow model developed in MODFLOW, and with a nitrate mass-transport model in MT3DMS. SWAT model outputs (mainly groundwater recharge and pumping, considering new irrigation needs under changing evapotranspiration (ET) and precipitation) are used as MODFLOW inputs to simulate changes in groundwater flow and storage and impacts on stream

  17. ASSESSING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS IN BHAVANISAGAR RESERVOIR AND ITS SURROUNDINGS, USING MULTITEMPORAL SATELLITE DATA AND GIS TECHNIQUES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Balamurugan

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Despite the warnings against climate change since the early century, recent human activities are still geared towards enhancing them. Because of climate change coupled by other human activities, natural ecosystems are facing difficulties in coping with the impacts of climate change. The evaluation of the impact of climate change on ecosystems implies studying a multi-component system in which the complexity of links is high enough to present doing it as a whole. Because of this, it is a reasonable approach to study separately the behavior of each element, to be afterwards linked into a general conceptual model for ecosystems behavior. Moreover, in the case of largely regulated region, the main impacts of climatic change will be fluvial-related since those related to the catchment areas will be severely damped by river regulation and management policies. This fact implies that Terrestrial fringes may become the main frontier between the ecosystems and climatic change effects. This paper describes the potential impacts of warming temperatures and changing precipitation on vegetation, wildlife, land use/ land covers, and agricultural ecosystems across the Bhavanisagar Reservoir region centered on Coimbatore district, Tamilnadu. We examine a geographic area that captures much of Reservoir, including a complex mosaic of urbanization and agriculture surrounding the Bhavanisagar Reservoir. The comparative study of land cover and soil status are provided using space images with middle resolution. Multitemporal satellite data provide the capability for mapping and monitoring land cover and land use change, but require the development of accurate and repeatable techniques that can be extended to a broad range of environments and conditions. The Landsat TM and ETM+ and SRTM-DEM images are included in analysis. The unsupervised and supervised classifications are applied for determination of different types of land cover. The research present here has focus

  18. Developments in Social Impact Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vanclay, Frank

    2014-01-01

    Along with environmental impact assessment, social impact assessment (SIA) has its origins in the 1970s and has developed from being a tool to meet regulatory requirements, to a discipline that seeks to contribute proactively to better project and policy development and to enhance the wellbeing of a

  19. Assessing and regulating the impacts of climate change on water resources in the Heihe watershed on the Loess Plateau of China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Climate change can cause considerable changes in water resources and assessing the potential impacts can provide important information for regional sustainable development. The objectives were to evaluate the possible impacts of climate change during 2010-2039 on water resources (runoff, soil water content, and evapotranspiration) in the Heihe watershed on the Loess Plateau of China and to further explore adaptive measures to cope with the changes. Projections of four climate models (CCSR/NIES, CGCM2, CSIRO-Mk2, and HadCM3) under three emission scenarios (A2, B2, and GGa) were used to estimate future changes in precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature based on Change Factor method. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to simulate the hydrologic responses to climate changes. The CA-Markov model was used to develop land use scenarios. Compared with the present climate, the climate models predicted a -2.3% to 7.8% change in annual precipitation, 0.7 to 2.2°C rises in maximum temperature, and 1.2 to 2.8°C rises in minimum temperature. Without consideration of land use change, SWAT predicted a -19.8% to 37.0% change for runoff, -5.5% to 17.2% change for soil water content, and 0.1% to 5.9% increase for evapotranspiration during 2010–2039 under all climate scenarios. Though the change of hydrometeorolocial variables are complex, they would possibly increase with great probability, and the hydrological regime would be influenced such as a decrease in runoff in winter months. With land use changes, the projected land use of 2015 would increase soil water content by 4.0% and surface runoff by 5.7% while slightly decrease evapotranspiration by 0.6% compared with the 2000 land use. This result showed that adjustment of land use patterns was capable of regulating water resources and could be used to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change.

  20. Assessment of the impact of sea-level rise due to climate change on coastal groundwater discharge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masciopinto, Costantino; Liso, Isabella Serena

    2016-11-01

    An assessment of sea intrusion into coastal aquifers as a consequence of local sea-level rise (LSLR) due to climate change was carried out at Murgia and Salento in southern Italy. The interpolation of sea-level measurements at three tide-gauge stations was performed during the period of 2000 to 2014. The best fit of measurements shows an increasing rate of LSLR ranging from 4.4mm/y to 8.8mm/y, which will result in a maximum LSLR of approximately 2m during the 22nd century. The local rate of sea-level rise matches recent 21st and 22nd century projections of mean global sea-level rise determined by other researchers, which include increased melting rates of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, the effect of ocean thermal expansion, the melting of glaciers and ice caps, and changes in the quantity of stored land water. Subsequently, Ghyben-Herzberg's equation for the freshwater/saltwater interface was rewritten in order to determine the decrease in groundwater discharge due to the maximum LSLR. Groundwater flow simulations and ArcGIS elaborations of digital elevation models of the coast provided input data for the Ghyben-Herzberg calculation under the assumption of head-controlled systems. The progression of seawater intrusion due to LSLR suggests an impressive depletion of available groundwater discharge during the 22nd century, perhaps as much as 16.1% of current groundwater pumping for potable water in Salento. PMID:27376921

  1. The relative impact of climate change mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity - An integrated assessment modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J. A.; Clarke, L. E.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Chaturvedi, V.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Kim, S.; Calvin, K. V.; Moss, R. H.

    2012-12-01

    We investigate the relative effects of climate emission mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally, by estimating both water availability and demand within a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change - the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We first develop a global gridded monthly hydrologic model that reproduces historical streamflow observations and simulates the future availability of freshwater under both a changing climate and an evolving landscape, and incorporate this model into GCAM. We then develop and incorporate technologically oriented representations of water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. To perform the water scarcity analysis at the grid scale, the global water demands for the six demand sectors are spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. The water scarcity index (WSI) compares total water demand to the total amount of renewable water available, and defines extreme water scarcity in any region as demand greater than 40% of total water availability. Using a reference scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 by 2095 and a global population of 14 billion, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demands for water exceed the total

  2. An integrated framework to assess adaptation options to climate change impacts in an irrigated basin in Central North Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicuna, S.; Melo, O.; Meza, F. J.; Alvarez, P.; Maureira, F.; Sanchez, A.; Tapia, A.; Cortes, M.; Dale, L. L.

    2013-12-01

    Future climate conditions could potentially affect water supply and demand on water basins throughout the world but especially on snowmelt-driven agriculture oriented basins that can be found throughout central Chile. Increasing temperature and reducing precipitation will affect both the magnitude and timing of water supply this part of the world. Different adaptation strategies could be implemented to reduce the impacts of such scenarios. Some could be incorporated as planned policies decided at the basin or Water Use Organization levels. Examples include changing large scale irrigation infrastructure (reservoirs and main channels) either physically or its operation. Complementing these strategies it is reasonable to think that at a disaggregated level, farmers would also react (adapt) to these new conditions using a mix of options to either modify their patterns of consumption (irrigation efficiency, crop mix, crop area reduction), increase their ability to access new sources of water (groundwater, water markets) or finally compensate their expected losses (insurance). We present a modeling framework developed to represent these issues using as a case study the Limarí basin located in Central Chile. This basin is a renowned example of how the development of reservoirs and irrigation infrastructure can reduce climate vulnerabilities allowing the economic development of a basin. Farmers in this basin tackle climate variability by adopting different strategies that depend first on the reservoir water volume allocation rule, on the type and size of investment they have at their farms and finally their potential access to water markets and other water supplies options. The framework developed can be used to study these strategies under current and future climate scenarios. The cornerstone of the framework is an hydrology and water resources model developed on the WEAP platform. This model is able to reproduce the large scale hydrologic features of the basin such as

  3. Linking Biological Integrity and Watershed Models to Assess the Impacts of Historical Land Use and Climate Changes on Stream Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Einheuser, Matthew D.; Nejadhashemi, A. Pouyan; Wang, Lizhu; Sowa, Scott P.; Woznicki, Sean A.

    2013-06-01

    Land use change and other human disturbances have significant impacts on physicochemical and biological conditions of stream systems. Meanwhile, linking these disturbances with hydrology and water quality conditions is challenged due to the lack of high-resolution datasets and the selection of modeling techniques that can adequately deal with the complex and nonlinear relationships of natural systems. This study addresses the above concerns by employing a watershed model to obtain stream flow and water quality data and fill a critical gap in data collection. The data were then used to estimate fish index of biological integrity (IBI) within the Saginaw Bay basin in Michigan. Three methods were used in connecting hydrology and water quality variables to fish measures including stepwise linear regression, partial least squares regression, and fuzzy logic. The IBI predictive model developed using fuzzy logic showed the best performance with the R 2 = 0.48. The variables that identified as most correlated to IBI were average annual flow, average annual organic phosphorus, average seasonal nitrite, average seasonal nitrate, and stream gradient. Next, the predictions were extended to pre-settlement (mid-1800s) land use and climate conditions. Results showed overall significantly higher IBI scores under the pre-settlement land use scenario for the entire watershed. However, at the fish sampling locations, there was no significant difference in IBI. Results also showed that including historical climate data have strong influences on stream flow and water quality measures that interactively affect stream health; therefore, should be considered in developing baseline ecological conditions.

  4. Health Impact Assessment of a Predicted Air Quality Change by Moving Traffic from an Urban Ring Road into a Tunnel. The Case of Antwerp, Belgium

    OpenAIRE

    Van Brusselen, Daan; Arrazola de Oñate, Wouter; Maiheu, Bino; Vranckx, Stijn; Lefebvre, Wouter; Janssen, Stijn; Nawrot, Tim S; Nemery, Ben; Avonts, Dirk

    2016-01-01

    Background The Antwerp ring road has a traffic density of 300,000 vehicles per day and borders the city center. The ‘Ringland project’ aims to change the current ‘open air ring road’ into a ‘filtered tunneled ring road’, putting the entire urban ring road into a tunnel and thus filtering air pollution. We conducted a health impact assessment (HIA) to quantify the possible benefit of a ‘filtered tunneled ring road’, as compared to the ‘open air ring road’ scenario, on air quality and its long-...

  5. Linked models to assess the impacts of climate change on nitrogen in a Norwegian river basin and fjord system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dynamically downscaled data from two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs), ECHAM4 from the Max-Planck Institute (MPI), Germany and HadAm3H from the Hadley Centre (HAD), UK, driven with two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (IS92a and A2, respectively) were used to make climate change projections. These projections were then used to drive four effect models linked to assess the effects on hydrology, and nitrogen (N) concentrations and fluxes, in the Bjerkreim river basin (685-km2) and its coastal fjord, southwestern Norway. The four effect models were the hydrological model HBV, the water quality models MAGIC, INCA-N and the NIVA FJORD model. The downscaled climate scenarios project a general temperature increase in the study region of approximately 1 deg. C by 2030-2049 (MPI IS92a) and approximately 3 deg. C by 2071-2100 (HAD A2). Both scenarios imply increased winter precipitation, whereas the projections of summer and autumn precipitation are quite different, with the MPI scenario projecting a slight increase and the HAD scenario a significant decrease. As a response to increased winter temperature, the HBV model simulates a dramatic reduction of snow accumulation in the upper parts of the catchment, which in turn lead to higher runoff during winter and lower runoff during snowmelt in the spring. With the HAD scenario, runoff in summer and early autumn is substantially reduced as a result of reduced precipitation, increased temperatures and thereby increased evapotranspiration. The water quality models, MAGIC and INCA-N project no major changes in nitrate (NO3-) concentrations and fluxes within the MPI scenario, but a significant increase in concentrations and a 40-50% increase in fluxes in the HAD scenario. As a consequence, the acidification of the river could increase, thus offsetting ongoing recovery from acidification due to reductions in acid deposition. Additionally, the increased N loading may stimulate growth of N-limited benthic

  6. Climate change impacts: an Ontario perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Significant changes in the climate system which are likely to affect biophysical, social and economic systems in various ways, were discussed. Trends in greenhouse gas levels show that during the 20. century, human activity has changed the make-up of the atmosphere and its greenhouse effect properties. A pilot study on the impacts of climate change identified changes in the water regime such as declines in net basin supply, lake levels and outflows, as important concerns. These changes would have impacts on water quality, wetlands, municipal water supply, hydroelectric power generation, commercial shipping, tourism and recreation, and to a lesser extent, on food productions. Climate impact assessments suggest that world conditions will change significantly as a result. Those with less resources are likely to be most affected by climate change, and the impacts on other regions of the world will be more significant to Ontario than the direct impacts on Ontario itself. In an effort to keep pace with global changes, Ontario will have to limit emissions, conduct research in innovative technology and develop greater awareness of the risk of climate change. refs., tabs., figs

  7. Assessing the Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Streamflow and Nutrient Loading in the Arroyo Colorado Watershed in Southern Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osidele, O.; Sun, A.; Green, R.

    2011-12-01

    Based on results of the Second National Climate Assessment reported in 2009, the U.S. Global Change Research Program projects temperatures in southern Texas will increase 5 to 8° F by the end of the 21st century, with larger changes occurring under scenarios of higher greenhouse gas emissions. Temperature increases in summer are projected to be larger than in winter. Although drier conditions are expected in the region, sea-level rise, extreme rainfall events, and associated storm surges are projected to occur more frequently because of the likely increase in intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico. The range of possible responses to climate change is attributable to a combination of characteristics at global, regional, and local scales. The risk of flooding and catastrophic infrastructure damage due to global climate phenomena has been incorporated into local climate adaptation plans for many low-lying areas and communities in the Gulf Coast region of southern Texas. However, because this region is dominated by irrigated agriculture and the population is projected to double by 2050, it is important to examine how climate change will affect water resources and environmental quality. The purpose of this study is to investigate the potential hydrologic and water quality impacts of projected climate change, land use change, and population change scenarios in the headwaters of the Arroyo Colorado. The results of this work will provide content for a web-based, collaborative geospatial decision support system being developed to support environmental management in the Arroyo Colorado Watershed. Presently, land use in the Arroyo Colorado Watershed is more than 50 percent agricultural and almost 25 percent residential with varying levels of urbanization. As a result, flow in the Arroyo Colorado is sustained primarily by discharge from municipal wastewater treatment facilities, irrigation return flows, and urban storm runoff. In this study

  8. A Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment: involving stakeholders in European policy making, a case study of land use change in Malta

    OpenAIRE

    Marguerite Camilleri; Rudolf de Groot; Valentina Tassone; Jake Breton. Morris; Stefano Moncada

    2011-01-01

    A Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment is presented for use within European land use policy impact assessment. The context and rationale for the development of the Framework are outlined, both in the context of European policy making and within a project called "Sustainability Impact Assessment: Tools for Environmental, Social and Economic Effects of Multifunctional Land Use in European Regions". A detailed description of the sequence of methods that make up the Framework i...

  9. An extended modeling approach to assess climate change impacts on groundwater recharge and adaptation in arid areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Hashemi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The impact of future climate scenarios on surface and groundwater resources was simulated using a modeling approach for an artificial recharge area in arid southern Iran. Future climate data for the periods of 2010–2030 and 2030–2050 were acquired from the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM 3.1 for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1. These scenarios were adapted to the studied region using the delta-change method. The modified version of the HBV model (Qbox was used to simulate runoff in a flash flood prone catchment. The model was calibrated and validated for the period 2002–2011 using daily discharge data. The projected climate variables were used to simulate future runoff. The rainfall–runoff model was then coupled to a calibrated groundwater flow and recharge model (MODFLOW to simulate future recharge and groundwater hydraulic head. The results of the rainfall–runoff modeling showed that under the B1 scenario the number of floods might increase in the area. This in turn calls for a proper management, as this is the only source of fresh water supply in the studied region. The results of the groundwater recharge modeling showed no significant difference between present and future recharge for all scenarios. Owing to that, four abstraction and recharge scenarios were assumed to simulate the groundwater level and recharged water in the studied aquifer. The results showed that the abstraction scenarios have the most substantial effect on the groundwater level and the continuation of current pumping rate would lead to a groundwater decline by 18 m up to 2050.

  10. Assessing the impact of climate change on the crop potential productivity in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain in China based on crop model and GIS technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Zhan; Lei, Xiaotu; Gao, Zhiqiang

    2007-09-01

    The climate is changing due to higher concentrations of greenhouse gases. If concentrations continue to increase, climate models project climate change will be more severe in this century, and with significant impacts on many human sectors, particularly agriculture. Agriculture is a fundamental production sector for society, especially for highly populated countries such as China. Huang Huai-Hai Plain is regarded as the bread basket of China. With only 7.7% water resources of the whole country, it produces 39.2% of national grain production and 32.4% of gross domestic product. According to government predictions, by 2030 this area will have a net population increase of 104 million, while its urbanization rate will be greater than 50%. The total irrigated area will reach about 20 million ha, with a net increase of 2 million ha/year. In this study, DSSAT a dynamic process crop growth model, has been calibrated and validated for current production at ten sites in the major winter wheat and summer maize-growing region of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain in China The IPCC SRES greenhouse gase emission scenarios A2 and B2 were used in the simulation, combining with the Regional Climate Model (PRICES) which provides long term present and future daily weather data. Using the regional crop model and GIS technologies, the crop productivity changes of two main crops winter wheat and summer maize were for simulated 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under both IPCC SRES A2 and B2 greenhouse gases emission scenarios. Simulation results indicated the possibility of significant impacts of climate change on crop production in this region, with marked differences between rainfed and irrigated production. In conclusion, this exercise successfully tested the applicability of standard climate change impact assessment methodology to an important production region of China.

  11. What's happening out there? (Climatic change impacts)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article briefly comments on some stumbling-blocks to climatic change modelling accuracy - in assessments of the greenhouse effect, 25% (missing link) of atmospheric carbon dioxide absorption is still unaccounted for; 1989 World Bank estimates of the Amazon rain forest deforestation rate have since proven to be inaccurate; there are difficulties in assessing the movement of the earth's crust relative to variations in sea level; and different studies vary in results relative to global temperature measurement and trend assessment. The need for an assessment of the economic impacts of increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide is also pointed out

  12. Assessment of climate change impacts on watershed in cold-arid region: an integrated multi-GCM-based stochastic weather generator and stepwise cluster analysis method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, X. W.; Li, Y. P.; Huang, G. H.; Liu, J.

    2016-07-01

    An integrated multi-GCM-based stochastic weather generator and stepwise cluster analysis (MGCM-SWG-SCA) method is developed, through incorporating multiple global climate models (MGCM), stochastic weather generator (SWG), and stepwise-clustered hydrological model (SCHM) within a general framework. MGCM-SWG-SCA can investigate uncertainties of projected climate changes as well as create watershed-scale climate projections from large-scale variables. It can also assess climate change impacts on hydrological processes and capture nonlinear relationship between input variables and outputs in watershed systems. MGCM-SWG-SCA is then applied to the Kaidu watershed with cold-arid characteristics in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of northwest China, for demonstrating its efficiency. Results reveal that the variability of streamflow is mainly affected by (1) temperature change during spring, (2) precipitation change during winter, and (3) both temperature and precipitation changes in summer and autumn. Results also disclose that: (1) the projected minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation from MGCM change with seasons in different ways; (2) various climate change projections can reproduce the seasonal variability of watershed-scale climate series; (3) SCHM can simulate daily streamflow with a satisfactory degree, and a significant increasing trend of streamflow is indicated from future (2015-2035) to validation (2006-2011) periods; (4) the streamflow can vary under different climate change projections. The findings can be explained that, for the Kaidu watershed located in the cold-arid region, glacier melt is mainly related to temperature changes and precipitation changes can directly cause the variability of streamflow.

  13. Assessment of climate change impacts on watershed in cold-arid region: an integrated multi-GCM-based stochastic weather generator and stepwise cluster analysis method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, X. W.; Li, Y. P.; Huang, G. H.; Liu, J.

    2015-12-01

    An integrated multi-GCM-based stochastic weather generator and stepwise cluster analysis (MGCM-SWG-SCA) method is developed, through incorporating multiple global climate models (MGCM), stochastic weather generator (SWG), and stepwise-clustered hydrological model (SCHM) within a general framework. MGCM-SWG-SCA can investigate uncertainties of projected climate changes as well as create watershed-scale climate projections from large-scale variables. It can also assess climate change impacts on hydrological processes and capture nonlinear relationship between input variables and outputs in watershed systems. MGCM-SWG-SCA is then applied to the Kaidu watershed with cold-arid characteristics in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of northwest China, for demonstrating its efficiency. Results reveal that the variability of streamflow is mainly affected by (1) temperature change during spring, (2) precipitation change during winter, and (3) both temperature and precipitation changes in summer and autumn. Results also disclose that: (1) the projected minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation from MGCM change with seasons in different ways; (2) various climate change projections can reproduce the seasonal variability of watershed-scale climate series; (3) SCHM can simulate daily streamflow with a satisfactory degree, and a significant increasing trend of streamflow is indicated from future (2015-2035) to validation (2006-2011) periods; (4) the streamflow can vary under different climate change projections. The findings can be explained that, for the Kaidu watershed located in the cold-arid region, glacier melt is mainly related to temperature changes and precipitation changes can directly cause the variability of streamflow.

  14. Privacy Impact Assessment (PIA) Repository

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — This repository contains Privacy Impact Assessments (PIA) that have been vetted/approved. Section 208 of the Electronic Government Act of 2002 (E-Gov Act) requires...

  15. Environmental impact assessment screening tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An environmental assessment and impact planning software, SCREENER, was tested at a pilot project at the Cameco site (Port Hope). SCREENER was used to screen the impacts of a new construction project in accordance with the process and reporting requirements laid out in the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act. The software test concentrated on the activities that are directly involved with the structure construction and site preparation activities. In addition, a two and one half day training course was given to three AECB staff using the test case as a hands on example. The conclusion of this project is that an automated tool such as SCREENER (or Calyx, the new generation of environmental assessment tools from ESSA Software Ltd.), will help the AECB to standardize the approach to environmental assessment, assist in project planning, and save resources in the screening process. The new approach could allow to allocate AECB limited resources to the detailed assessments required for maximum impact activities

  16. Economic impact assessment on SANREM

    OpenAIRE

    Norton, George W.; Alwang, Jeffrey

    2014-01-01

    This PowerPoint summarizes findings from SANREM’s economic impact assessment cross-cutting research activity (CRRA-6). It describes results from budgeting studies, linear programming models, and aggregate impact analysis for several study sites. Additionally, it provides information about the CCRA’s publications and training activities.

  17. Climate services for the assessment of climate change impacts and risks in coastal areas at the regional scale: the North Adriatic case study (Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentina, Gallina; Torresan, Silvia; Giannini, Valentina; Rizzi, Jonathan; Zabeo, Alex; Gualdi, Silvio; Bellucci, Alessio; Giorgi, Filippo; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    At the international level, the interest for climate services is rising due to the social and economic benefits that different stakeholders can achieve to manage climate risks and take advantage of the opportunities associated with climate change impacts. However, there is a significant gap of tools aimed at providing information about risks and impacts induced by climate change and allowing non-expert stakeholders to use both climate-model and climate-impact data. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), the case study of the North Adriatic Sea is aimed at analysing the need of climate information and the effectiveness of climate services for the integrated assessment of climate change impacts in coastal zones of the North Adriatic Sea at the regional to local scale. A participative approach was developed and applied to identify relevant stakeholders which have a mandate for coastal zone management and to interact with them in order to elicit their climate information needs. Specifically, the participative approach was carried out by means of two local workshops and trough the administration of a questionnaire related to climate information and services. The results of the process allowed identifying three major themes of interest for local stakeholders (i.e. hydro-climatic regime, coastal and marine environment, agriculture) and their preferences concerning key climate variables (e.g. extreme events, sea-level, wave height), mid-term temporal projections (i.e. for the next 30-40 years) and medium-high spatial resolution (i.e. from 1 to 50 km). Furthermore, the workshops highlighted stakeholder concern about several climate-related impacts (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surge, droughts) and vulnerable receptors (e.g. beaches, wetlands, agricultural areas) to be considered in vulnerability and risk assessment studies for the North Adriatic coastal zones. This information was used by climate and environmental risk experts in order to develop targeted climate information and

  18. Health in social impact assessment

    OpenAIRE

    den Broeder, Lea; Vanclay, Frank; Fehr, Rainer; Viliani, Francesca; Nowacki, Julia; Martuzzi, Marco

    2014-01-01

    SIA developed alongside EIA in the early 1970s as a mechanism to consider the social impacts of planned interventions. The early understanding tended to limit the practical application of SIA to the project level, usually within the context of regulatory frameworks, and primarily considered only the direct negative impacts. However, like other types of impact assessment, SIA has evolved over time and has diverged considerably from EIA. Nowadays, SIA has widened its scope to become a “philosop...

  19. Assessing the Impact of a Human Rights-Based Approach across a Spectrum of Change for Women's, Children's, and Adolescents' Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Rebekah; Kuruvilla, Shyama; Hinton, Rachel; Jensen, Steven L B; Magar, Veronica; Bustreo, Flavia

    2015-01-01

    Global momentum around women's, children's, and adolescents' health, coupled with the ambitious and equalizing agenda of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), has exposed a tension between the need for comprehensive, multi-actor, rights-based approaches that seek to "close the gaps" and a growing economic and political imperative to demonstrate efficiency, effectiveness, and returns on specific investments. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a framework to measure "results" in a way that offers a more nuanced understanding of the impact of human rights-based approaches and their complexity, as well as their contextual, multi-sectoral, and evolving nature. We argue that the impact of human rights-based approaches is best measured across a spectrum of change-at the individual, programmatic, structural, and societal levels. Such an analysis would allow for more accurate assessments of the cumulative effect of these changes. The paper also underscores the long-overdue need to better define the parameters of a human rights-based approach to health. This is an important part of the research agenda on human rights and health in the context of the SDGs and the Global Strategy for Women's, Children's and Adolescents' Health, and amid calls for better measurement and greater accountability for resources, results, and rights at all levels. While this paper focuses on women's, children's, and adolescents' health, the proposed framework can apply as readily to other areas of health and provides a new frame of reference for assessing the impact of human rights-based approaches. PMID:26766852

  20. Towards a landscape scale management of pesticides: ERA using changes in modelled occupancy and abundance to assess long-term population impacts of pesticides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topping, Chris J; Craig, Peter S; de Jong, Frank; Klein, Michael; Laskowski, Ryszard; Manachini, Barbara; Pieper, Silvia; Smith, Rob; Sousa, José Paulo; Streissl, Franz; Swarowsky, Klaus; Tiktak, Aaldrik; van der Linden, Ton

    2015-12-15

    Pesticides are regulated in Europe and this process includes an environmental risk assessment (ERA) for non-target arthropods (NTA). Traditionally a non-spatial or field trial assessment is used. In this study we exemplify the introduction of a spatial context to the ERA as well as suggest a way in which the results of complex models, necessary for proper inclusion of spatial aspects in the ERA, can be presented and evaluated easily using abundance and occupancy ratios (AOR). We used an agent-based simulation system and an existing model for a widespread carabid beetle (Bembidion lampros), to evaluate the impact of a fictitious highly-toxic pesticide on population density and the distribution of beetles in time and space. Landscape structure and field margin management were evaluated by comparing scenario-based ERAs for the beetle. Source-sink dynamics led to an off-crop impact even when no pesticide was present off-crop. In addition, the impacts increased with multi-year application of the pesticide whereas current ERA considers only maximally one year. These results further indicated a complex interaction between landscape structure and pesticide effect in time, both in-crop and off-crop, indicating the need for NTA ERA to be conducted at landscape- and multi-season temporal-scales. Use of AOR indices to compare ERA outputs facilitated easy comparison of scenarios, allowing simultaneous evaluation of impacts and planning of mitigation measures. The landscape and population ERA approach also demonstrates that there is a potential to change from regulation of a pesticide in isolation, towards the consideration of pesticide management at landscape scales and provision of biodiversity benefits via inclusion and testing of mitigation measures in authorisation procedures. PMID:26318547

  1. Rainfall-runoff modelling of the Okavango River catchment to assess impacts of land use change on runoff and downstream ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milzow, Christian; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

    2010-05-01

    The competition between human water use and ecosystem water use is one of the major challenges for water resources management at the global scale. We analyse the situation for the Okavango River basin of southern Africa. The Okavango River is representative for many large rivers throughout the developing world in that it is ungauged and poorly studied. The Okavango basin - spanning over Angola, Namibia and Botswana - represents a multi-objective problem in an international setting. Economic benefits of agricultural development and conservation of ecosystem services call for opposed actions. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model of the Okavango catchment is set up using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model is sufficiently physically based to simulate the impact on runoff of extent of agricultural use, crop types and management practices. Precipitation and temperature inputs are taken from datasets covering large parts of the globe. The methodology can thus easily be applied for other ungauged catchments. For temperature we use the ERA-Interim reanalysis product of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and for precipitation the Famine Early Warning Systems Network data (FEWS-Net). Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) data resulted in poor model performance compared to the FEWS-Net data. Presently, the upstream catchment in Angola is largely pristine and agriculture is basically restricted to dry land subsistence farming. But economic growth in Angola is likely to result in agricultural development and consequent impacts on catchment runoff. Land use scenarios that are simulated include large scale irrigated agriculture with water extractions from the river and the shallow aquifer. Climate change impacts are also studied and compared to land use change impacts. The downstream part of the basin consists of the large Okavango Wetlands, which are a biodiversity hotspot of global importance and, through tourism, an important

  2. Towards the assessment of climate change and human activities impacts on the water resources of the Ebro catchment (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milano, M.; Ruelland, D.; Dezetter, A.; Ardoin-Bardin, S.; Thivet, G.; Servat, E.

    2012-04-01

    Worldwide studies modelling the hydrological response to global changes have proven the Mediterranean area as one of the most vulnerable region to water crisis. It is characterised by limited and unequally distributed water resources, as well as by important development of its human activities. Since the late 1950s, water demand in the Mediterranean basin has doubled due to a significant expansion of irrigated land and urban areas, and has maintained on a constant upward curve. The Ebro catchment, third largest Mediterranean basin, is very representative of this context. Since the late 1970s, a negative trend in mean rainfall has been observed as well as an increase in mean temperature. Meanwhile, the Ebro River discharge has decreased by about 40%. However, climate alone cannot explain this downward trend. Another factor is the increase in water consumption for agricultural and domestic uses. Indeed, the Ebro catchment is a key element in the Spanish agricultural production with respectively 30% and 60% of the meat and fruit production of the country. Moreover, population has increased by 20% over the catchment since 1970 and the number of inhabitant doubles each summer due to tourism attraction. Finally, more than 250 storage dams have been built over the Ebro River for hydropower production and irrigation water supply purposes, hence regulating river discharge. In order to better understand the respective influence of climatic and anthropogenic pressures on the Ebro hydrological regime, an integrated water resources modelling framework was developed. This model is driven by water supplies, generated by a conceptual rainfall-runoff model and by a storage dam module that accounts for water demands and environmental flow requirements. Water demands were evaluated for the most water-demanding sector, i.e. irrigated agriculture (5 670 Hm3/year), and the domestic sector (252 Hm3/year), often defined as being of prior importance for water supply. A water allocation

  3. Impacts of climate change on coastal benthic ecosystems: assessing the current risk of mortality outbreaks associated with thermal stress in NW Mediterranean coastal areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pairaud, Ivane Lilian; Bensoussan, Nathaniel; Garreau, Pierre; Faure, Vincent; Garrabou, Joaquim

    2014-01-01

    In the framework of climate change, the increase in ocean heat wave frequency is expected to impact marine life. Large-scale positive temperature anomalies already occurred in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea in 1999, 2003 and 2006. These anomalies were associated with mass mortality events of macrobenthic species in coastal areas (0-40 m in depth). The anomalies were particularly severe in 1999 and 2003 when thousands of kilometres of coasts and about 30 species were affected. The aim of this study was to develop a methodology to assess the current risk of mass mortality associated with temperature increase along NW Mediterranean continental coasts. A 3D regional ocean model was used to obtain the temperature conditions for the period 2001-2010, for which the model outputs were validated by comparing them with in situ observations in affected areas. The model was globally satisfactory, although extremes were underestimated and required correction. Combined with information on the thermo-tolerance of a key species (the red gorgonian P. clavata) as well as its spatial distribution, the modelled temperature conditions were then used to assess the risk of mass mortality associated with thermal stress for the first time. Most of the known areas of observed mass mortality were found using the model, although the degree of risk in certain areas was underestimated. Using climatic IPCC scenarios, the methodology could be applied to explore the impacts of expected climate change in the NW Mediterranean. This is a key issue for the development of sound management and conservation plans to protect Mediterranean marine biodiversity in the face of climate change.

  4. DEVELOPING A CAPABILITY WITHIN BASINS 4.0 FOR ASSESSING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES

    Science.gov (United States)

    During the last century, much of the U.S. experienced gradually warming temperatures, increases in precipitation, and increases in the intensity of precipitation events. Water resources and aquatic ecosystems are highly vulnerable to these changes, with possible effects includin...

  5. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality in a Tidal Estuarine System Using a Three-Dimensional Model

    OpenAIRE

    Wen-Cheng Liu; Wen-Ting Chan

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is one of the key factors affecting the future quality and quantity of water in rivers and tidal estuaries. A coupled three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model has been developed and applied to the Danshuei River estuarine system in northern Taiwan to predict the influences of climate change on water quality. The water quality model considers state variables including nitrogen, phosphorus, organic carbon, and phytoplankton as well as dissolved oxygen, and is driven...

  6. Assessing climate change induced displacements and its potential impacts on climate refugees:how can surveyors help with adaptation?

    OpenAIRE

    Boateng, Isaac

    2014-01-01

    Global warming and climate change pose severe threat to many countries, territories and cultural heritage of humanity on earth in the 21st century. One of the ensuing effects of climate change is the issue of climate induced displacements and the consequent migrants (climate refugees). Over the past two decades, the debate about “climate refugees” among experts, advocacy groups and social scientists has produced lots of different scenarios about environmentally induced migration. However, the...

  7. Assessing the vulnerability of the marine bird community in the western North Sea to climate change and other anthropogenic impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Burthe, Sarah J; Wanless, Sarah; Newell, Mark A.; Butler, Adam; Daunt, Francis

    2014-01-01

    Ocean warming and anthropogenic activities such as fishing, shipping and marine renewable developments are affecting marine top predators. Research has focussed on the impacts of single stressors on single species, yet understanding cumulative effects of multiple stressors on communities is vital for effective conservation management. We studied a marine bird community (45 species; 11 families) that used the Forth and Tay region of the North Sea for breeding, overwintering or migration betwee...

  8. Using the Teacher Work Sample to Assess the Impact of PETE Program Changes upon Student Teachers' Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Carol L.; Marston, Rip E.

    2008-01-01

    The effects of Physical Education Teacher Education program modifications upon selected characteristics identified with effective teaching were assessed utilizing the Teacher Work Sample (TWS). Data were collected from all student teacher candidates during the 2002 student teaching sessions. Based upon the 2002 data, interventions were made to a…

  9. Environmental impact assessment and monetary ecosystem service valuation of an ecosystem under different future environmental change and management scenarios; a case study of a Scots pine forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaubroeck, Thomas; Deckmyn, Gaby; Giot, Olivier; Campioli, Matteo; Vanpoucke, Charlotte; Verheyen, Kris; Rugani, Benedetto; Achten, Wouter; Verbeeck, Hans; Dewulf, Jo; Muys, Bart

    2016-05-15

    For a sustainable future, we must sustainably manage not only the human/industrial system but also ecosystems. To achieve the latter goal, we need to predict the responses of ecosystems and their provided services to management practices under changing environmental conditions via ecosystem models and use tools to compare the estimated provided services between the different scenarios. However, scientific articles have covered a limited amount of estimated ecosystem services and have used tools to aggregate services that contain a significant amount of subjective aspects and that represent the final result in a non-tangible unit such as 'points'. To resolve these matters, this study quantifies the environmental impact (on human health, natural systems and natural resources) in physical units and uses an ecosystem service valuation based on monetary values (including ecosystem disservices with associated negative monetary values). More specifically, the paper also focuses on the assessment of ecosystem services related to pollutant removal/generation flows, accounting for the inflow of eutrophying nitrogen (N) when assessing the effect of N leached to groundwater. Regarding water use/provisioning, evapotranspiration is alternatively considered a disservice because it implies a loss of (potential) groundwater. These approaches and improvements, relevant to all ecosystems, are demonstrated using a Scots pine stand from 2010 to 2089 for a combination of three environmental change and three management scenarios. The environmental change scenarios considered interannual climate variability trends and included alterations in temperature, precipitation, nitrogen deposition, wind speed, Particulate matter (PM) concentration and CO2 concentration. The addressed flows/ecosystem services, including disservices, are as follows: particulate matter removal, freshwater loss, CO2 sequestration, wood production, NOx emissions, NH3 uptake and nitrogen pollution/removal. The monetary

  10. Assessment of impacts of climate change on water resources – a case study of the Great Lakes of North America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. McBean

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Historical trends in precipitation, temperature, and streamflows in the Great Lakes are examined using regression analysis and Mann-Kendall statistics, with the result that many of these variables demonstrate statistically significant increases ongoing for a six decade period. Future precipitation rates as predicted using fitted regression lines are compared with scenarios from Global Climate Change Models (GCMs and demonstrate similar forecast predictions for Lake Superior. Trend projections from historical data are, however, higher than GCM predictions for Michigan/Huron. Significant variability in predictions, as developed from alternative GCMs, is noted. Given the general agreement as derived from very different procedures, predictions extrapolated from historical trends and from GCMs, there is evidence that hydrologic changes in the Great Lakes Basin are likely the result of climate change.

  11. Impact assessment of land use policies: Introduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bezlepkina, I.; Brouwer, F.M.; Reidsma, P.

    2014-01-01

    This special issue is built around a series of impact assessments of land use policies and sustainable development in developing countries, carried out in the EU-funded project LUPIS (Sixth framework programme, Global Change and Ecosystems, Contract 36955). The project targeted at the development an

  12. Modeling the impact of climate change in Germany with biosphere models for long-term safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biosphere models are used to evaluate the exposure of populations to radionuclides from a deep geological repository. Since the time frame for assessments of long-time disposal safety is 1 million years, potential future climate changes need to be accounted for. Potential future climate conditions were defined for northern Germany according to model results from the BIOCLIM project. Nine present day reference climate regions were defined to cover those future climate conditions. A biosphere model was developed according to the BIOMASS methodology of the IAEA and model parameters were adjusted to the conditions at the reference climate regions. The model includes exposure pathways common to those reference climate regions in a stylized biosphere and relevant to the exposure of a hypothetical self-sustaining population at the site of potential radionuclide contamination from a deep geological repository. The end points of the model are Biosphere Dose Conversion factors (BDCF) for a range of radionuclides and scenarios normalized for a constant radionuclide concentration in near-surface groundwater. Model results suggest an increased exposure of in dry climate regions with a high impact of drinking water consumption rates and the amount of irrigation water used for agriculture. - Highlights: ► We model Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors for a representative group exposed to radionuclides from a waste repository. ► The BDCF are modeled for different soil types. ► One model is used for the assessment of the influence of climate change during the disposal time frame.

  13. Methodological framework, analytical tool and database for the assessment of climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten; Gregg, Jay Sterling;

    This report was prepared at the request of and funded by the Coordination Unit for Research in Climate Change Adaptation (KFT). The report is a milestone of the project titled “Udvikling af metodisk ramme for dansk analytisk værktøj og database over klimasårbarhed og klimatilpasning”, funded by K...

  14. Assessing the impacts induced by global climate change through a multi-risk approach: lessons learned from the North Adriatic coast (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallina, Valentina; Torressan, Silvia; Zabeo, Alex; Critto, Andrea; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is expected to pose a wide range of impacts on natural and human systems worldwide, increasing risks from long-term climate trends and disasters triggered by weather extremes. Accordingly, in the future, one region could be potentially affected by interactions, synergies and trade-offs of multiple hazards and impacts. A multi-risk risk approach is needed to effectively address multiple threats posed by climate change across regions and targets supporting decision-makers toward a new paradigm of multi-hazard and risk management. Relevant initiatives have been already developed for the assessment of multiple hazards and risks affecting the same area in a defined timeframe by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Most of them are addressing the relations of different natural hazards, however, the effect of future climate change is usually not considered. In order to fill this gap, an advanced multi-risk methodology was developed at the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC) for estimating cumulative impacts related to climate change at the regional (i.e. sub-national) scale. This methodology was implemented into an assessment tool which allows to scan and classify quickly natural systems and human assets at risk resulting from different interacting hazards. A multi-hazard index is proposed to evaluate the relationships of different climate-related hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, coastal erosion, storm surge) occurring in the same spatial and temporal area, by means of an influence matrix and the disjoint probability function. Future hazard scenarios provided by regional climate models are used as input for this step in order to consider possible effects of future climate change scenarios. Then, the multi-vulnerability of different exposed receptors (e.g. natural systems, beaches, agricultural and urban areas) is estimated through a variety of vulnerability indicators (e.g. vegetation cover, sediment budget, % of urbanization

  15. Socio-economic scenario development for the assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural land use: a pairwise comparison approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abildtrup, Jens; Audsley, E.; Fekete-Farkas, M.;

    2006-01-01

    European agricultural land use. The scenarios are interpreted from the storylines described in the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) special report on emission scenarios (SRES), which ensures internal consistency between the evolution of socio-economics and climate change. A stepwise...... downscaling procedure based on expert-judgement and pairwise comparison is presented to obtain quantitative socio-economic parameters, e.g. prices and productivity estimates that are input to the ACCELERATES integrated land use model. In the first step, the global driving forces are identified and quantified...... for each of the four SRES scenario families. In the second step, European agricultural driving forces are derived for each scenario from global driving forces. Finally, parameters for the agricultural land use model are quantified. The stepwise procedure is appropriate when developing socio...

  16. The future of environmental sustainability in the Taita Hills, Kenya: assessing potential impacts of agricultural expansion and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Eduardo Maeda

    2012-01-01

    The indigenous cloud forests in the Taita Hills have suffered substantial degradation for several centuries due to agricultural expansion. Currently, only 1% of the original forested area remains preserved. Furthermore, climate change imposes an imminent threat for local economy and environmental sustainability. In such circumstances, elaborating tools to conciliate socioeconomic growth and natural resources conservation is an enormous challenge. This article tackles essential aspects for und...

  17. Climate impacts of Australian land cover change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, P. J.

    2004-05-01

    Australian land cover has been dramatically altered since European settlement primarily for agricultural utilization, with native vegetation widely replaced or modified for cropping and intensive animal production. While there have been numerous investigations into the regional and near surface climate impacts of Australian land cover change, these investigation have not included the climate impacts of larger-scale changes in atmospheric circulation and their associated feedbacks, or the impacts of longer-term soil moisture feedbacks. In this research the CSIRO General Circulation Model (GCM) was used to investigate the climate impacts of Australian land cover change, with larger-scale and longer-term feedbacks. To avoid the common problem of overstating the magnitude and spatial extent of changes in land surface conditions prescribed in land cover change experiments, the current Australian land surface properties were described from finer-scale, satellite derived land cover datasets, with land surface conditions extrapolating from remnant native vegetation to pre-clearing extents to recreate the pre-clearing land surface properties. Aggregation rules were applied to the fine-scale data to generate the land surface parameters of the GCM, ensuring the equivalent sub-grid heterogeneity and land surface biogeophysics were captured in both the current and pre-clearing land surface parameters. The differences in climate simulated in the pre-clearing and current experiments were analyzed for changes in Australian continental and regional climate to assess the modeled climate impacts of Australian land cover change. The changes in modeled climate were compared to observed changes in Australian precipitation over the last 50 and 100 years to assess whether modeled results could be detected in the historical record. The differences in climate simulation also were analyzed at the global scale to assess the impacts of local changes on larger scale circulation and climate at

  18. Health impact assessment in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recently, Health Impact Assessment has gained great attention in Korea. First, the Ministry of Environment introduced HIA within existing Environment Impact Assessment. Second, the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs began an HIA program in 2008 in alliance with Healthy Cities. In this short report, these two different efforts are introduced and their opportunities and challenges discussed. We believe these two approaches complement each other and both need to be strengthened. We also believe that both can contribute to the development of health in policy and project development and ultimately to improvements in the Korean population's health.

  19. Introducing Life Cycle Impact Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Huijbregts, Mark AJ

    2015-01-01

    methodology projects and presents the international scientific discussions and methodological consensus attempts in consecutive working groups under the auspices of the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) as well as the UNEP/ SETAC Life Cycle Initiative, and the (almost) parallel......This chapter serves as an introduction to the presentation of the many aspects of life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) in this volume of the book series ‘LCA Compendium’. It starts with a brief historical overview of the development of life cycle impact assessment driven by numerous national LCIA...

  20. Untapped potential of health impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, Mirko S; Krieger, Gary R; Divall, Mark J; Cissé, Guéladio; Wielga, Mark; Singer, Burton H; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg

    2013-04-01

    The World Health Organization has promoted health impact assessment (HIA) for over 20 years. At the 2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20), HIA was discussed as a critical method for linking health to "green economy" and "institutional framework" strategies for sustainable development. In countries having a high human development index (HDI), HIA has been added to the overall assessment suite that typically includes potential environmental and social impacts, but it is rarely required as part of the environmental and social impact assessment for large development projects. When they are performed, project-driven HIAs are governed by a combination of project proponent and multilateral lender performance standards rather than host country requirements. Not surprisingly, in low-HDI countries HIA is missing from the programme and policy arena in the absence of an external project driver. Major drivers of global change (e.g. population growth and urbanization, growing pressure on natural resources and climate change) inordinately affect low- and medium-HDI countries; however, in such countries HIA is conspicuously absent. If the cloak of HIA invisibility is to be removed, it must be shown that HIA is useful and beneficial and, hence, an essential component of the 21st century's sustainable development agenda. We analyse where and how HIA can become fully integrated into the impact assessment suite and argue that the impact of HIA must not remain obscure. PMID:23599554

  1. Innovative energy technologies in energy-economy models: assessing economic, energy and environmental impacts of climate policy and technological change in Germany.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schumacher, K.

    2007-04-18

    Energy technologies and innovation are considered to play a crucial role in climate change mitigation. Yet, the representation of technologies in energy-economy models, which are used extensively to analyze the economic, energy and environmental impacts of alternative energy and climate policies, is rather limited. This dissertation presents advanced techniques of including technological innovations in energy-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. New methods are explored and applied for improving the realism of energy production and consumption in such top-down models. The dissertation addresses some of the main criticism of general equilibrium models in the field of energy and climate policy analysis: The lack of detailed sectoral and technical disaggregation, the restricted view on innovation and technological change, and the lack of extended greenhouse gas mitigation options. The dissertation reflects on the questions of (1) how to introduce innovation and technological change in a computable general equilibrium model as well as (2) what additional and policy relevant information is gained from using these methodologies. Employing a new hybrid approach of incorporating technology-specific information for electricity generation and iron and steel production in a dynamic multi-sector computable equilibrium model it can be concluded that technology-specific effects are crucial for the economic assessment of climate policy, in particular the effects relating to process shifts and fuel input structure. Additionally, the dissertation shows that learning-by-doing in renewable energy takes place in the renewable electricity sector but is equally important in upstream sectors that produce technologies, i.e. machinery and equipment, for renewable electricity generation. The differentiation of learning effects in export sectors, such as renewable energy technologies, matters for the economic assessment of climate policies because of effects on international

  2. Monitoring study and impact assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Budidarsono, Suseno; Rahmanulloh, Arif

    2008-01-01

    Report on the progress of socio-economic objective of LTRP 5 in Indonesia. The objectives were: (1) Identify vegetable cultivation technology on agroforestry system that socially acceptable, economically feasible, and affordable; (2) Provide information on the level adoption of vegetable cultivation technology in agroforestry system and (3)Assess impacts of technology adoption on farmers' incomes.

  3. SkiSim - A semi-distributed model to assess the impact of climate change on ski season length and snowmaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steiger, R.

    2009-04-01

    -2000 is +1,4°C to +3,5°C in the B1 scenario, and from +1,2°C to 5,7°C in the A1B scenario. Precipitation change in the A1B scenario is between +5% and +10%, in B1 it is +5% to +20%. The synthetic daily data produced by LARS-WG is the input data for the ski season model. Temperature and precipitation are distributed for each 100m altitude band, ranging from the lowest to the highest point of the ski area. The ski season model produces results for the whole ski area and not just for one single point (e.g. the lowest point in a ski area). Thus it is possible to assess the impact of climate change on ski season length and snowmaking in much greater detail than in previous studies. Based on these results, the consequences for winter tourism destinations can be assessed. Following the methodology of Breiling et al. (1997, 2008), the contribution of winter tourism to the regional economy and the number employments in tourism serve as an indicator for the vulnerability of communities and regions to climate change. In total 120 ski areas in North and South Tyrol are investigated in the running project. Results of three ski areas, different in size and altitude, will be presented. Sources: Abegg, B., S. Agrawala, Crick, F., de Montfalcon, A. (2007): Climate change impacts and adaptation in winter tourism. In: S. Agrawala, Climate Change in the European Alps. Adapting Winter Tourism and Natural Hazards Management. Paris, OECD: 25-60. Breiling, M., Charamza, P., Skage, O. (1997): Klimasensibilität österreichischer Bezirke mit besonderer Berücksichtigung des Wintertourismus. Rapport 1,Department of Landscape Planning Alnarp, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences. Breiling, M., Charamza, P.,Feilmayr, W. (2008): Klimasensibilität des Salzburger Wintertourismus nach Bezirken, TTL, TU Vienna. Kleindienst, H. (2000): Snow hydrological models as tools for snow cover assessment and water resources management, Bern. Phd. Scott, D., G. McBoyle, Minogue, A. (2007): Climate Change

  4. Assessment of projected temperature impacts from climate change on the U.S. electric power sector using the Integrated Planning Model®

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study analyzes the potential impacts of changes in temperature due to climate change on the U.S. power sector, measuring the energy, environmental, and economic impacts of power system changes due to temperature changes under two emissions trajectories—with and without emissions mitigation. It estimates the impact of temperature change on heating and cooling degree days, electricity demand, and generating unit output and efficiency. These effects are then integrated into a dispatch and capacity planning model to estimate impacts on investment decisions, emissions, system costs, and power prices for 32 U.S. regions. Without mitigation actions, total annual electricity production costs in 2050 are projected to increase 14% ($51 billion) because of greater cooling demand as compared to a control scenario without future temperature changes. For a scenario with global emissions mitigation, including a reduction in U.S. power sector emissions of 36% below 2005 levels in 2050, the increase in total annual electricity production costs is approximately the same as the increase in system costs to satisfy the increased demand associated with unmitigated rising temperatures. - Highlights: • We model the impact of rising temperatures on the U.S. power sector. • We examine temperature and mitigation impacts on demand, supply, and investment. • Higher temperatures increase power system costs by about $50 billion by the year 2050. • Meeting demand from higher temperatures costs slightly more than reducing emissions. • Mitigation policy cost analyses should account for temperature impacts

  5. A numerical modelling tool for assessing the impact of climate change and management options on water supply systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romano, Emanuele; Guyennon, Nicolas; Mariani, Davide; Bruna Petrangeli, Anna; Portoghese, Ivan

    2014-05-01

    Conditions of scarcity for a water supply system occur when the available resource are not able to satisfy the connected demands. They can arise both from a decreasing of the inflow to the exploited resources and/or from a increasing of the demand. Such conditions can be assessed by a water balance model able to simulate both the hydrological processes describing the relationships between the meteorological forcing (precipitation) and the inflows to the exploited reservoir, and the intra- and inter-annual time distribution of the connected demand and the reservoir management policies. We present a numerical modelling tool, developed for the management of the Maggiore Lake, that computes at daily scale the water budget of such reservoir taking into account 1) the monthly precipitation over the watershed basin and the related inflow; 2) the seasonal demand for irrigation and 3) the operative hydrometric levels constraints to the lake water withdrawal. The model represents precipitation over the basin through the space mean of the standardized precipitation indices computed at different aggregation scales using observed time series. The relationship between the precipitation regime and the inflow to the reservoir is obtained through a simple multilinear regression model, considering the SPI computed at 1, 3 and 6 months as independent variables: this allows to take hydrological processes into account featuring different characteristic times and to simulate both the historic inflow regime and the possible conditions forecast by climate scenarios. The regression model is validated on the precipitation and lake inflow observations in the period 1996-2013 using a leave-one-out cross validation. The seasonal irrigation demand is assigned based on the extensions of crops fed by the lake water and regardless of the climate conditions; the actual supply is limited by the operative hydrometric range of allowable water levels, which stop water distribution when the lake level

  6. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modelling (LUCHEM) II: Ensemble combinations and predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viney, N.R.; Bormann, H.; Breuer, L.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.W.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Willems, P.

    2009-01-01

    This paper reports on a project to compare predictions from a range of catchment models applied to a mesoscale river basin in central Germany and to assess various ensemble predictions of catchment streamflow. The models encompass a large range in inherent complexity and input requirements. In approximate order of decreasing complexity, they are DHSVM, MIKE-SHE, TOPLATS, WASIM-ETH, SWAT, PRMS, SLURP, HBV, LASCAM and IHACRES. The models are calibrated twice using different sets of input data. The two predictions from each model are then combined by simple averaging to produce a single-model ensemble. The 10 resulting single-model ensembles are combined in various ways to produce multi-model ensemble predictions. Both the single-model ensembles and the multi-model ensembles are shown to give predictions that are generally superior to those of their respective constituent models, both during a 7-year calibration period and a 9-year validation period. This occurs despite a considerable disparity in performance of the individual models. Even the weakest of models is shown to contribute useful information to the ensembles they are part of. The best model combination methods are a trimmed mean (constructed using the central four or six predictions each day) and a weighted mean ensemble (with weights calculated from calibration performance) that places relatively large weights on the better performing models. Conditional ensembles, in which separate model weights are used in different system states (e.g. summer and winter, high and low flows) generally yield little improvement over the weighted mean ensemble. However a conditional ensemble that discriminates between rising and receding flows shows moderate improvement. An analysis of ensemble predictions shows that the best ensembles are not necessarily those containing the best individual models. Conversely, it appears that some models that predict well individually do not necessarily combine well with other models in

  7. Assessment of climate change impacts on rainfall using large scale climate variables and downscaling models – A case study

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Azadeh Ahmadi; Ali Moridi; Elham Kakaei Lafdani; Ghasem Kianpisheh

    2014-10-01

    Many of the applied techniques in water resources management can be directly or indirectly influenced by hydro-climatology predictions. In recent decades, utilizing the large scale climate variables as predictors of hydrological phenomena and downscaling numerical weather ensemble forecasts has revolutionized the long-lead predictions. In this study, two types of rainfall prediction models are developed to predict the rainfall of the Zayandehrood dam basin located in the central part of Iran. The first seasonal model is based on large scale climate signals data around the world. In order to determine the inputs of the seasonal rainfall prediction model, the correlation coefficient analysis and the new Gamma Test (GT) method are utilized. Comparison of modelling results shows that the Gamma test method improves the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of modelling performance as 8% and 10% for dry and wet seasons, respectively. In this study, Support Vector Machine (SVM) model for predicting rainfall in the region has been used and its results are compared with the benchmark models such as K-nearest neighbours (KNN) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The results show better performance of the SVM model at testing stage. In the second model, statistical downscaling model (SDSM) as a popular downscaling tool has been used. In this model, using the outputs from GCM, the rainfall of Zayandehrood dam is projected under two climate change scenarios. Most effective variables have been identified among 26 predictor variables. Comparison of the results of the two models shows that the developed SVM model has lesser errors in monthly rainfall estimation. The results show that the rainfall in the future wet periods are more than historical values and it is lower than historical values in the dry periods. The highest monthly uncertainty of future rainfall occurs in March and the lowest in July.

  8. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify t

  9. GIS and remote sensing techniques for the assessment of land use changes impact on flood hydrology: the case study of Yialias Basin in Cyprus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. D. Alexakis

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Flooding is one of the most common natural disasters worldwide, leading to economic losses and loss of human lives. This paper highlights the hydrological effects of multi-temporal land use changes in flood hazard within the Yialias catchment area, located in central Cyprus. Calibrated hydrological and hydraulic models were used to describe the hydrological processes and internal basin dynamics of the three major sub-basins, in order to study the diachronic effects of land use changes. For the implementation of the hydrological model, land use, soil and hydrometeorological data were incorporated. The climatic and stream flow data were derived from rain and flow gauge stations located in the wider area of the watershed basin. In addition, the land use and soil data were extracted after the application of object oriented nearest neighbor algorithms of ASTER satellite images. Subsequently, the CA-Markov chain analysis was implemented to predict the 2020 Land use/Land cover (LULC map and incorporate it to the hydrological impact assessment. The results denoted the increase of runoff in the catchment area due to the recorded extensive urban sprawl phenomenon of the last decade.

  10. An Introduction to the IBMR : A Hydro-Economic Model for Climate Change Impact Assessment in Pakistan’s Indus River Basin

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Yi-Chen E.; Brown, Casey M.; Yu, Winston H.; Savitsky, Andre

    2013-01-01

    The Indus Basin Model Revised (IBMR) is a hydro-agro-economic optimization model for agricultural investment planning across Pakistan’s Indus Basin provinces. This study describes IBMR-2012, an update and modification of the model that reflects the current agro-economic conditions in Pakistan for the purpose of evaluating the impact of climate change on water allocation and food security. Results of hydro-climatic parameter sensitivity and basin-wide and provincial-level climate change impact...

  11. CASE STUDY APPLICATION OF THE BASINS CLIMATE ASSESSMENT TOOL, AND DEVELOPMENT OF A FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER QUALITY IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED

    Science.gov (United States)

    Much of the U.S. is likely to experience warming temperatures and changes in precipitation amount and/or intensity during the next century. Water resources are highly vulnerable to these changes, with possible effects including increased occurrence of floods and droughts, and wa...

  12. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES

    OpenAIRE

    T.M. CORNEA; Dima, M.; Roca, D.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources – The most recent scientific assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [6] concludes that, since the late 19th century, anthropogenic induced emissions of greenhouse gases have contributed to an increase in global surface temperatures of about 0.3 to 0.6o C. Based on the IPCC’s scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols a further increase of 2o C is expected by the year 2100. Plants, animals, natural and managed ...

  13. Congress Assesses Climate Change Paleodata

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bierly, Eugene W.

    2006-08-01

    The `hockey stick' graph of surfacetemperature change overthe past millennium and implicationsfor climate change assessments wasthe subject of two hearings held by the U.S.House of Representatives Energy and CommerceSubcommittee on Oversight andInvestigations, on 19 and 27 July. These hearingsmarked only the second time that thecommittee has discussed climate issuessince George W. Bush became president.

  14. Advances in Assessment on Impacts of Wind Farms upon Climate Change%风电场对气候变化影响研究进展

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵宗慈; 罗勇; 江滢

    2011-01-01

    综述了国际评估风电场对局地和全球气候变化的短期和较长期的可能影响,并且将其影响与人类排放的影响作简单的对比.大量的观测和数值模拟研究表明,风电场的运行明显减小下游风速,同时随局地近地层稳定度的不同也造成下游温度明显上升或下降.一些数值模拟研究表明,如果全球建立大量大型风电场,例如假定全球使用风能占总能源10%以上,即全球陆地的30%~ 40%和全球海洋浅水区均建有风电场,这些风电场的运行将可能造成全球变暖和风速减小.目前风电场对全球气候的影响尚具有很大的不确定性.%This paper summarizes and assesses the possible impacts of wind farms on both short- and long-term climate changes both in global and regional areas. Based on the most observed studies and numerical simulations, it is found that the wind speed in the downwind regions of wind farms reduced obviously due to the wind farms' operations. The temperature in the downwind regions became higher or lower than the upwind regions. It depended on the atmospheric stability in the near surface. Based on some numerical simulations, if many large wind farms are designed and set up in the world, for example, the global wind energy accounts for 10% of the total energy, it means that 30%-40% of the global lands and the shallow water of the global oceans are the wind farms, it might cause global warming, and also cause the reduction of wind speed and other climatic effects. Up to now, there are large gaps and uncertainties in the assessment of impacts of wind farms on the global climate change.

  15. Quantitative health impact assessment: current practice and future directions

    OpenAIRE

    Veerman, Lennert; Barendregt, Jan; Mackenbach, Johan

    2005-01-01

    textabstractSTUDY OBJECTIVE: To assess what methods are used in quantitative health impact assessment (HIA), and to identify areas for future research and development. DESIGN: HIA reports were assessed for (1) methods used to quantify effects of policy on determinants of health (exposure impact assessment) and (2) methods used to quantify health outcomes resulting from changes in exposure to determinants (outcome assessment). MAIN RESULTS: Of 98 prospective HIA studies, 17 reported quantitati...

  16. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.M. CORNEA

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change impacts on water resources – The most recent scientific assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC [6] concludes that, since the late 19th century, anthropogenic induced emissions of greenhouse gases have contributed to an increase in global surface temperatures of about 0.3 to 0.6o C. Based on the IPCC’s scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols a further increase of 2o C is expected by the year 2100. Plants, animals, natural and managed ecosystems, and human settlements are susceptible to variations in the storage, fluxes, and quality of water and sensitive to climate change. From urban and agricultural water supplies to flood management and aquatic ecosystem protection, global warming is affecting all aspects of water resource management. Rising temperatures, loss of snowpack, escalating size and frequency of flood events, and rising sea levels are just some of the impacts of climate change that have broad implications for the management of water resources. With robust scientific evidence showing that human-induced climate change is occurring, it is critical to understand how water quantity and quality might be affected. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the environmental risks caused by climate anomalies on water resources, to examine the negative impacts of a greenhouse warming on the supply and demand for water and the resulting socio-economic implications.

  17. Climate change impacts and adaptations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn

    2015-01-01

    inseparability of the development and climate agendas, and the rate of assimilation of climate and development information in key institutions. They are drawn from the Development Under Climate Change (DUCC) project carried out by UNU-WIDER of which the countries of the Greater Zambeze Valley formed a part......In this article, we assert that developing countries are much better prepared to undertake negotiations at the Conference of the Parties in Paris (CoP21) as compared to CoP15 in Copenhagen. An important element of this is the accumulation of knowledge with respect to the implications of climate...... change and the ongoing internalization thereof by key institutions in developing countries. The articles in this special issue set forth a set of technical contributions to this improved understanding. We also summarize five major lessons related to uncertainty, extreme events, timing of impacts, the...

  18. Assessment of Traffic Noise Impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rich, Jeppe Husted; Nielsen, Otto Anker

    2004-01-01

    A steady growth in traffic intensities in most urban areas throughout the world has forced planners and politicians to seriously consider the resulting environmental impact, such as traffic noise, accidents and air pollution. The assessment of such negative factors is needed in order to reveal...... the true social benefit of infrastructure plans. The paper presents a noise assessment model for the Copenhagen region, which brings together GIS technology and non-linear hedonic regression models to reveal the implicit costs of traffic noise measured as the marginal percentage loss in property values...... with respect to the decibel traffic noise. The model distinguishes between houses and apartments and shows that the ability to include refined accessibility variables have significant impact on estimated prices....

  19. Assessing the impacts of climate change and dams on floodplain inundation and wetland connectivity in the wet-dry tropics of northern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karim, Fazlul; Dutta, Dushmanta; Marvanek, Steve; Petheram, Cuan; Ticehurst, Catherine; Lerat, Julien; Kim, Shaun; Yang, Ang

    2015-03-01

    Floodplain wetlands and their hydrological connectivity with main river channels in the Australian wet-dry tropics are under increasing pressure from global climate change and water resource development, and there is a need for modelling tools to estimate the time dynamics of connectivity. This paper describes an integrated modelling framework combining conceptual rainfall-runoff modelling, river system modelling and hydrodynamic (HD) modelling to estimate hydrological connectivity between wetlands and rivers in the Flinders and Gilbert river catchments in northern Australia. Three historical flood events ranging from a mean annual flood to a 35-year return period flood were investigated using a two dimensional HD model (MIKE 21). Inflows from upstream catchments were estimated using a river network model. Local runoff within the HD modelling domain was simulated using the Sacramento rainfall-runoff model. The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) derived 30 m DEM was used to reproduce floodplain topography, stream networks and wetlands in the HD model. The HD model was calibrated using stream gauge data and inundation maps derived from satellite (MODIS: MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) imagery. An algorithm was developed to combine the simulated water heights with the DEM to quantify inundation and flow connection between wetlands and rivers. The connectivity of 18 ecologically important wetlands on the Flinders floodplain and 7 on the Gilbert floodplain were quantified. The impacts of climate change and water resource development on connectivity to individual wetlands were assessed under a projected dry climate (2nd driest of 15 GCMs), wet climate (2nd wettest of 15 GCMs) and dam conditions. The results indicate that changes in rainfall under a wetter and drier future climate could have large impacts on area, duration and frequency of inundation and connectivity. Topographic relief, river bank elevation and flood magnitude were found to be the key

  20. Let's put this in perspective: using dynamic simulation modelling to assess the impacts of farm-scale land management change on catchment-scale water quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivers, Mark; Clarendon, Simon; Coles, Neil

    2013-04-01

    Natural Resource Management and Agri-industry development groups in Australia have invested considerable resources into the investigation of the economic, social and, particularly, environmental impacts of varying farming activities in a "catchment context". This research has resulted in the development of a much-improved understanding of the likely impacts of changed management practices at the farm-scale as well as the development of a number of conceptual models which place farming within this broader catchment context. The project discussed in this paper transformed a conceptual model of dairy farm phosphorus (P) management and transport processes into a more temporally and spatially dynamic model. This was then loaded with catchment-specific data and used as a "policy support tool" to allow the Australian dairy industry to examine the potential farm and catchment-scale impacts of varying dairy farm management practices within some key dairy farming regions. Models were developed, validated and calibrated using "STELLA©" dynamic modelling software for three catchments in which dairy is perceived as a significant land use. The models describe P movement and cycling within and through dairy farms in great detail and also estimate P transport through major source, sink and flow sectors of the catchments. A series of scenarios were executed for all three catchments which examined three main "groups" of tests: changes to farm P input rates; implementation of perceived environmental "Best Management Practices" (BMPs), and; changes to land use mosaics. Modifications to actual P input rates into dairy farms (not surprisingly) had a major effect on nutrient transport within and from the farms with a significant rise in nutrient loss rates at all scales with increasing fertiliser use. More surprisingly, however, even extensive environmental BMP implementation did not have marked effects on off-farm nutrient loss rates. On and off-farm riparian management implemented

  1. Scenario development and assessment of the potential impacts of climate and market changes on crops in Europe : Assessing the adaptive capacity of agriculture in the Netherlands to the impacts of climate change under different market and policy scenarios (AgriAdapt project)

    OpenAIRE

    Ewert, F.; Angulo, C.; Rumbaur, C.; Lock, R; Enders, A.; Adenauer, M.; Heckelei, T.; Ittersum, van, M.K.; Wolf, J; Rötter, R.

    2011-01-01

    The Netherlands are an important producer and exporter of agricultural products. Changes in climate, markets and policies may have a large impact on the agricultural sector and farmers will need to adapt to these changes. Sector and policy documents have, so far, insufficiently considered the impacts of climate change and increased climate variability on the sector.

  2. Including the temporal change in PM2.5 concentration in the assessment of human health impact: Illustration with renewable energy scenarios to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article proposes a new method to assess the health impact of populations exposed to fine particles (PM2.5) during their whole lifetime, which is suitable for comparative analysis of energy scenarios. The method takes into account the variation of particle concentrations over time as well as the evolution of population cohorts. Its capabilities are demonstrated for two pathways of European energy system development up to 2050: the Baseline (BL) and the Low Carbon, Maximum Renewable Power (LC-MRP). These pathways were combined with three sets of assumptions about emission control measures: Current Legislation (CLE), Fixed Emission Factors (FEFs), and the Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions (MTFRs). Analysis was carried out for 45 European countries. Average PM2.5 concentration over Europe in the LC-MRP/CLE scenario is reduced by 58% compared with the BL/FEF case. Health impacts (expressed in days of loss of life expectancy) decrease by 21%. For the LC-MRP/MTFR scenario the average PM2.5 concentration is reduced by 85% and the health impact by 34%. The methodology was developed within the framework of the EU's FP7 EnerGEO project and was implemented in the Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA). The Platform enables performing health impact assessments for various energy scenarios. - Highlights: • A new method to assess health impact of PM2.5 for energy scenarios is proposed. • An algorithm to compute Loss of Life Expectancy attributable to exposure to PM2.5 is depicted. • Its capabilities are demonstrated for two pathways of European energy system development up to 2050. • Integrating the temporal evolution of PM2.5 is of great interest for assessing the potential impacts of energy scenarios

  3. Including the temporal change in PM{sub 2.5} concentration in the assessment of human health impact: Illustration with renewable energy scenarios to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gschwind, Benoit, E-mail: benoit.gschwind@mines-paristech.fr [Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy, MINES ParisTech, 1 rue Claude Daunesse, CS 10207, F-06904 Sophia Antipolis (France); Lefevre, Mireille, E-mail: mireille.lefevre@mines-paristech.fr [Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy, MINES ParisTech, 1 rue Claude Daunesse, CS 10207, F-06904 Sophia Antipolis (France); Blanc, Isabelle, E-mail: isabelle.blanc@mines-paristech.fr [Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy, MINES ParisTech, 1 rue Claude Daunesse, CS 10207, F-06904 Sophia Antipolis (France); Ranchin, Thierry, E-mail: thierry.ranchin@mines-paristech.fr [Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy, MINES ParisTech, 1 rue Claude Daunesse, CS 10207, F-06904 Sophia Antipolis (France); Wyrwa, Artur, E-mail: awyrwa@agh.edu.pl [AGH University of Science and Technology, Al. Mickiewicza 30, Krakow 30-059 (Poland); Drebszok, Kamila [AGH University of Science and Technology, Al. Mickiewicza 30, Krakow 30-059 (Poland); Cofala, Janusz, E-mail: cofala@iiasa.ac.at [International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2067 Laxenburg (Austria); Fuss, Sabine, E-mail: fuss@mcc-berlin.net [International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2067 Laxenburg (Austria); Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Torgauer Str. 12-15, 10829 Berlin (Germany)

    2015-04-15

    This article proposes a new method to assess the health impact of populations exposed to fine particles (PM{sub 2.5}) during their whole lifetime, which is suitable for comparative analysis of energy scenarios. The method takes into account the variation of particle concentrations over time as well as the evolution of population cohorts. Its capabilities are demonstrated for two pathways of European energy system development up to 2050: the Baseline (BL) and the Low Carbon, Maximum Renewable Power (LC-MRP). These pathways were combined with three sets of assumptions about emission control measures: Current Legislation (CLE), Fixed Emission Factors (FEFs), and the Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions (MTFRs). Analysis was carried out for 45 European countries. Average PM{sub 2.5} concentration over Europe in the LC-MRP/CLE scenario is reduced by 58% compared with the BL/FEF case. Health impacts (expressed in days of loss of life expectancy) decrease by 21%. For the LC-MRP/MTFR scenario the average PM{sub 2.5} concentration is reduced by 85% and the health impact by 34%. The methodology was developed within the framework of the EU's FP7 EnerGEO project and was implemented in the Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA). The Platform enables performing health impact assessments for various energy scenarios. - Highlights: • A new method to assess health impact of PM{sub 2.5} for energy scenarios is proposed. • An algorithm to compute Loss of Life Expectancy attributable to exposure to PM{sub 2.5} is depicted. • Its capabilities are demonstrated for two pathways of European energy system development up to 2050. • Integrating the temporal evolution of PM{sub 2.5} is of great interest for assessing the potential impacts of energy scenarios.

  4. Economic impacts of climate change in Australia: framework and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: There is growing interest in understanding the potential impacts of climate change in Australia, and especially the economic impacts of 'inaction'. In this study, a preliminary analysis of the possible economic impacts of future climate change in Australia is undertaken using ABARE's general equilibrium model of the global economy, GTEM. In order to understand the potential economy-wide economic impacts, the broad climatic trends that Australia is likely to experience over the next several decades are canvassed and the potential economic and non-economic impacts on key risk areas, such as water resources, agriculture and forests, health, industry and human settlements and the ecosystems, are identified. A more detailed analysis of the economic impacts of climate change are undertaken by developing two case studies. In the first case study, the economic impact of climate change and reduced water availability on the agricultural sector is assessed in the Murray-Darling Basin. In the second case study, the sectoral economic impacts on the Australian resources sector of a projected decline in global economic activity due to climate change is analysed. The key areas of required development to more fully understand the economy-wide and sectoral impacts of climate change are also discussed including issues associated with estimating both non-market and market impacts. Finally, an analytical framework for undertaking integrated assessment of climate change impacts domestically and globally is developed

  5. Assessing potential impacts of climate change on hydropower generation of three reservoirs in the Tagus River Basin under ensemble of climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobanova, Anastasia; Koch, Hagen; Hattermann, Fred F.; Krysanova, Valentina

    2015-04-01

    The Tagus River basin is an important strategic water and energy source for Portugal and Spain. With an extensive network of 40 reservoirs with more than 15 hm3 capacity and numerous abstraction channels it is ensuring water supply for domestic and industrial usage, irrigation and hydropower production in Spain and Portugal. Growing electricity and water supply demands, over-regulation and construction of new dams, and large inter-basin water transfers aggravated by strong natural variability of climate and aridity of the catchment have already imposed significant pressures on the river. The substantial reduction of discharge, dropping during some months to zero in some parts of the catchment, is observed already now, and projected climatic change is expected to alter the water budget of the catchment further. As the water inflow is a fundamental defining factor in a reservoir operation and hydropower production, the latter are highly sensitive to shifts in water balance of the catchment, and hence to changes in climate. In this study we aim to investigate the effects of projected climate change on water inflows and hydropower generation of the three large reservoirs in the Tagus River Basin, and by that to assess their ability to cover electricity power demands and provide water supply under changed conditions, assuming present management strategies; hydropower and abstraction demands. The catchment scale, process-based eco-hydrological model SWIM was set up, calibrated and validated up to the Santarem gauge at the Tagus outlet, with the implementation of a reservoir module. The reservoir module is able to represent three reservoir operation management options, simulate water abstraction and provide rates of generated hydropower. In total, fifteen largest reservoirs in the Tagus River Basin were included in the model, calibrated and validated against observed inflow, stored water and outflow water volumes. The future climate projections were selected from the

  6. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  7. The changing nature of life cycle assessment

    OpenAIRE

    McManus, Marcelle C.; Taylor, Caroline M

    2015-01-01

    LCA has evolved from its origins in energy analysis in the 1960s and 70s into a wide ranging tool used to determine impacts of products or systems over several environmental and resource issues. The approach has become more prevalent in research, industry and policy. Its use continues to expand as it seeks to encompass impacts as diverse as resource accounting and social well being. Carbon policy for bioenergy has driven many of these changes. Enabling assessment of complex issues over a life...

  8. Integrated assessment of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Many researchers are working on all the separate parts of the climate problem. The objective of integrated assessment is to put the results from this work together in order to look carefully at the big picture so as to: (1) keep a proper sense of perspective about the problem, since climate change will occur in the presence of many other natural and human changes; (2) develop the understanding necessary to support informed decision making by many different key public and private actors around the world; and (3) assure that the type and mix of climate-related research that is undertaken will be as useful as possible to decisions makers in both the near and long term. This paper outlines a set of design guidelines for formulating integrated assessment programs and projects and then outlines some of the current problems and opportunities. Selected points are illustrated by drawing on results from the integrated assessment research now in progress at Carnegie Mellon University

  9. Sense-making and Impact Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyhne, Ivar

    The poster integrates knowledge about how we make sense of situations into SEA methodology to strengthen the staging of impact assessments and the process of scoping impacts.......The poster integrates knowledge about how we make sense of situations into SEA methodology to strengthen the staging of impact assessments and the process of scoping impacts....

  10. Impact of Climate Change on Riverbank Erosion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Most. Nazneen Aktar

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Bangladesh is one of the most climate vulnerable countries in the world. This country is highly vulnerable to climate change because of a number of hydro-geological and socio-economic factors such as geographical location, topography, extreme climate variability, high population density, poverty incidence and dependency of agriculture on climate. Presently this country has been experiencing different hydro-meteorological disastrous events that have never been experienced before. Along with other natural disasters, floods are expected to be impacted by climate change in the future. Since floods are always associated with riverbank erosion, it is essential to assess the impact of climate change on bank erosion. Riverbank erosion is also a serious hazard that directly or indirectly causes the suffering of millions of people. Beyond that, most of the old cities and important infrastructures in this country are situated on riverbanks since once upon a time waterway transportation was the main mode of travel. Moreover, people like to reside near rivers because of their dependency on river water for irrigation purposes. So a major part of the total population of this country lives near riverbanks, which frequently makes them victims of riverbank erosion. The major rivers, the Jamuna, the Ganges and the Padma, annually erode thousand hectares of floodplain land and damage or destroy infrastructures. Consequently, this natural disaster has become a major social hazard. This study aims to find out the relationship between floods and bank erosion; and hence the impact of climate changes on riverbank erosion. Since there is no record on riverbank erosion, this study attempts to measure it with the help of satellite images. It has been found in this study that climate change will play a significant role in riverbank erosion. On an average, the riverbank erosion along the major three rivers will be increased by 13% by 2050 and it will be increased by 18% by

  11. Impact of Climate Change on Poverty in Laos

    OpenAIRE

    Kyophilavong, Phouphet; Takamatsu, Shinya

    2011-01-01

    The climate change is global problems. It is predicted to have more severe impact on developing country which most of population are poor. The main impact of climate change on poverty is changing crop productivity and commodity prices. However, there are few studies on the relationship between climate change and poverty. Therefore, this study will use Laos which has a high share of agriculture sector on GDP and high poverty rates as a case study to assess the impact the climate change on nati...

  12. Assessing the demographic and public service impacts of repository siting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demographic and public service impacts are likely to be among the most evident of those changes resulting from nuclear waste repository development. Knowledge of the characteristics of such impacts and of the means to assess them is critical. The first section of this chapter examines those likely to be unique to repositories. The second section describes the alternatives for assessing such impacts and the particular difficulties likely to affect the assessments. Given the state of development of techniques for assessing impacts and the range of factors that must be considered, perhaps their best use is as a means of sensitizing decision makers to the potential implications of their decisions. 2 tables

  13. Impact of climate change and population growth on a risk assessment for endocrine disruption in fish due to steroid estrogens in England and Wales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In England and Wales, steroid estrogens: estrone, estradiol and ethinylestradiol have previously been identified as the main chemicals causing endocrine disruption in male fish. A national risk assessment is already available for intersex in fish arising from estrogens under current flow conditions. This study presents, to our knowledge, the first set of national catchment-based risk assessments for steroid estrogen under future scenarios. The river flows and temperatures were perturbed using three climate change scenarios (ranging from relatively dry to wet). The effects of demographic changes on estrogen consumption and human population served by sewage treatment works were also included. Compared to the current situation, the results indicated increased future risk:the percentage of high risk category sites, where endocrine disruption is more likely to occur, increased. These increases were mainly caused by changes in human population. This study provides regulators with valuable information to prepare for this potential increased risk. - Highlights: • Risk assessment for the 2050's including climate change and population changes. • Three climate scenarios considered (changes in river flow and river temperature). • Increased risk from fish intersex across all scenarios in England and Wales. • Population is the main factor causing the risk increase for the 2050's. - The predicted increase in risk of endocrine disruption in fish due to steroid estrogens in England and Wales in the 2050's is mainly due to human population increase rather than climate change

  14. Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper deals with the social and economic dimensions of climate change impacts and adaptation in Italy. The ultimate aim of the paper is to provide policy makers and experts with a conceptual framework, as well as methodological and operational tools for dealing with climate change impacts and adaptation from an economic perspective. In order to do so, first a conceptual and theoretical framework of the economic assessment of climate change impacts is presented and the state of the art about impact assessment studies is briefly analysed. Then, the Italian case is taken into account, by underlying the main impacts and adaptation challenges that are likely to be implied by climate change in the next decades. The analysis of the Italian case is particularly addressed through the description of the methodology and results of two case studies. The first one, dealing mainly with impact assessment, is carried out at the national level and is part of a EC funded project on Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE). The second one is carried out at the local level and focuses on sea level rise impacts and adaptation in a plane south of Rome. The two case studies allow to propose simple and flexible methodologies for the economic impact assessment and the economic valuation of adaptation strategies

  15. Impacts of a Warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Arctic is warming much more rapidly than previously known, at nearly twice the rate as the rest of the globe, and increasing greenhouse gases from human activities are projected to make it warmer still, according to an unprecedented four-year scientific study of the region conducted by an international team of 300 scientists. At least half the summer sea ice in the Arctic is projected to melt by the end of this century, along with a significant portion of the Greenland Ice Sheet, as the region is projected to warm an additional 4-7C by the year 2100. These changes will have major global impacts, such as contributing to global sea-level rise and intensifying global warming, according to the final report of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA). The assessment was commissioned by the Arctic Council (a ministerial intergovernmental forum comprised of the eight Arctic countries and six Indigenous Peoples organizations) and the International Arctic Science Committee (an international scientific organization appointed by 18 national academies of science). The assessment's projections are based on a moderate estimate of future emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and incorporate results from five major global climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

  16. Long-term records of coral calcification across the central Great Barrier Reef: assessing the impacts of river runoff and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Olivo, J. P.; McCulloch, M. T.; Judd, K.

    2013-12-01

    Calcification rates are reported for 41 long-lived Porites corals from 7 reefs, in an inshore to offshore transect across the central Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Over multi-decadal timescales, corals in the mid-shelf (1947-2008) and outer reef (1952-2004) regions of the GBR exhibit a significant increase in calcification of 10.9 ± 1.1 % (1.4 ± 0.2 % per decade; ±1 SE) and 11.1 ± 3.9 % (2.1 ± 0.8 % per decade), respectively, while inner-shelf (1930-2008), reefs show a decline of 4.6 ± 1.3 % (0.6 ± 0.2 % per decade). This long-term decline in calcification for the inner GBR is attributed to the persistent ongoing effects of high sediment/nutrients loads from wet season river discharges, compounded by the effects of thermal stress, especially during the 1998 bleaching event. For the recent period (1990-2008), our data show recovery from the 1998 bleaching event, with no significant trend in the rates of calcification (1.1 ± 2.0 %) for the inner reefs, while corals from the mid-shelf central GBR show a decline of 3.3 ± 0.9 %. These results are in marked contrast to the extreme reef-wide declines of 14.2 % reported by De'ath et al. (2009) for the period of 1990-2005. The De'ath et al. (2009) results are, however, found to be compromised by the inclusion of incomplete final years, duplicated records, together with a bias toward inshore reefs strongly affected by the 1998 bleaching. Our new findings nevertheless continue to raise concerns, with the inner-shelf reefs continuing to show long-term declines in calcification consistent with increased disturbance from land-based effects. In contrast, the more `pristine' mid- and outer-shelf reefs appear to be undergoing a transition from increasing to decreasing rates of calcification, possibly reflecting the effects of CO2-driven climate change. Our study highlights the importance of properly undertaken, regular assessments of coral calcification that are representative of the distinctive cross-shelf environments and

  17. Schneider lecture: From climate change impacts to climate change risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, C. B.

    2014-12-01

    Steve Schneider was a strong proponent of considering the entire range of possible climate-change outcomes. He wrote and spoke frequently about the importance of low probability/high consequence outcomes as well as most likely outcomes. He worked tirelessly on communicating the risks from overlapping stressors. Technical and conceptual issues have made it difficult for Steve's vision to reach maturity in mainstream climate-change research, but the picture is changing rapidly. The concept of climate-change risk, considering both probability and consequence, is central to the recently completed IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and the concept frames much of the discussion about future research agendas. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks is important for five core reasons. First, conceptualizing the issue as being about probabilities builds a bridge between current climate variability and future climate change. Second, a formulation based on risks highlights the fact that climate impacts occur primarily in extremes. For historical variability and future impacts, the real concern is the conditions under which things break and systems fail, namely, in the extremes. Third, framing the challenge as one of managing risks puts a strong emphasis on exploring the full range of possible outcomes, including low-probability, high/consequence outcomes. Fourth, explaining climate change as a problem in managing risks links climate change to a wide range of sophisticated risk management tools and strategies that underpin much of modern society. Fifth, the concept of climate change as a challenge in managing risks helps cement the understanding that climate change is a threat multiplier, adding new dimensions and complexity to existing and emerging problems. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks creates an important but difficult agenda for research. The emphasis needs to shift from most likely outcomes to most risky outcomes, considering the full

  18. Analysis of methods and models for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes in the agricultural sector of the US economy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Callaway, J.M.; Cronin, F.J.; Currie, J.W.; Tawil, J.

    1982-08-01

    The overall purpose of this research was to assist the US Department of Energy (DOE) in developing methods for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts due to the effects of increases in the ambient concentration of CO/sub 2/ on agricultural production. First, a comprehensive literature search was undertaken to determine what types of models and methods have been developed, which could be effectively used to conduct assessments of the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ buildup. Specific attention was focused upon models and methods for assessing the physical impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes on crop yields; national and multi-regional agricultural sector models; and macroeconomic models of the US economy. The second task involved a thorough investigation of the research efforts being conducted by other public and private sector organizations in order to determine how more recent analytical methods being developed outside of DOE could be effectively integrated into a more comprehensive analysis of the direct economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ buildup. The third and final task involved synthesizing the information gathered in the first two tasks into a systematic framework for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes originating in the agricultural sector of the US economy. It is concluded that the direct economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ on the agricultural sector and the indirect economic impacts caused by spillover effects from agriculture to other sectors of the economy will be pervasive; however, the direction and magnitude of these impacts on producers and consumers cannot be determined a priori.

  19. global research program: LTG2. Assess the potential impacts of global change on water quality and aquatic ecosystems in the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Includes research on the effects of land use practices and climate change on terrestrial-aquatic linkages in the Willamette Basin Oregon and implications for water resources; assessment of the vulnerability of Pacific Coast estuarine ecosystems and population viability of key Pac...

  20. Assessing the impacts of land cover change on energy fluxes and evapotranspiration in the middle reach of the Yellow River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, T.; Lei, H.; Jiao, Y.; Yang, D.

    2013-12-01

    Land cover change has been generally considered a local environmental issue. Our study focuses on the impacts of land cover change on the energy and water balance using field observation approach. The study site is at Yulin (38.45N, 109.47E) which is in the middle reach of the Yellow River Basin. A flux tower was built in June 2011, and exchange of water vapor and energy between atmosphere and canopy was measured by the eddy covariance (EC) technique. Soil water content and soil temperature were measured at depths of 5, 10, 20, 40, 60, 80, 120, 160cm, under bare soil region and vegetation region, respectively. Before June 2012, the vegetation in this site was typical desert plants, Salix psammophila and Artemisia ordosica. After June 2012, nearly half of the natural vegetation that around the flux tower were cut off by the farmers, which converted half of the land cover to bare soil. Two contrastive periods are selected: the first year (before land cover change) is from July 1st 2011 to June 30th 2012, the second year (transient period) is from July 1st 2012 to June 30th 2013. We will evaluate and compare the datasets of this two periods to explore the impacts of land cover change on: (1) energy balance, including latent heat flux (LE), sensible heat flux (H), net radiation (Rn), and bowen ratio (B0); (2) water balance, including soil water content (SWC) of different depths in unsaturated zone, especially after a long-durated-rainfall, and evapotranspiration. According to the comparative approach, we aim to get insights into how agricultural cultivation impacts on the local water balance (i.e., what is the most sensitive variable to the land cover change, how the groundwater and subsurface water interact, and further, their responses to the land cover change). Moreover, we try to discuss whether this agricultural cultivation can lead to environmental problems.

  1. Is expert opinion enough? A critical assessment of the evidence for potential impacts of climate change on tick-borne diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randolph, Sarah E

    2013-12-01

    Before attributing cause and consequence to climate change, the precise patterns of change must be known. Ground records across much of Europe show a 1-2 °C rise in temperatures in 1989 with no significant rise since then. The timing and spatial uniformity of this pattern, relative to changes in the distribution and incidence of many vector-borne diseases, are sufficient to falsify most simple claims that climate change is the principal cause of disease emergence. Furthermore, age-specific increases in incidence indicate causes other than, or in addition to, climate change. Unfortunately, many public health professionals repeat the received wisdom that climate change is worsening the burden of indirectly transmitted infections; this 'expert opinion' soon becomes consensus dogma divorced from quantitative evidence. The pressing need is to gather appropriate data to test the simple concept that the composition and relative importance of disparate multifactorial factors, commonly integrated within a causal nexus, will inevitably vary with the geographical, cultural, socio-economical, wildlife, etc. context. The greatest impact of warming occurs at the geographical limits of current distributions, where low temperatures limit the hazard of infected vectors. Within core endemic regions, changing exposure of humans to this hazard, through changing socio-economic factors is evidently more important amongst both the poor and the wealthy. PMID:24067445

  2. Assessment Impacts of Weather and Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) Change on Urban Vegetation Net Primary Productivity (NPP): A Case Study in Guangzhou, China

    OpenAIRE

    Xiantie Zeng; Lili Xia; Yaolong Zhao; Yingchun Fu; Xueyu Lu

    2013-01-01

    Net primary productivity (NPP) can indicate vegetation ecosystem services ability and reflect variation response to climate change and human activities. This study applied MODIS-1 km NPP products to investigate the NPP variation from 2001 to 2006, a fast urban expansion and adjustment period in Guangzhou, China, and quantify the impacts of weather and land use/land cover (LULC) changes, respectively. The results showed that the NPP mean value increased at a rate of 11.6 g∙C∙m−2∙yr−1 during th...

  3. Rainwater Harvesting for Small-Holder Horticulture in Namibia: Design of Garden Variants and Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Woltersdorf

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The design of rainwater harvesting based gardens requires considering current climate but also climate change during the lifespan of the facility. The goal of this study is to present an approach for designing garden variants that can be safely supplied with harvested rainwater, taking into account climate change and adaptation measures. In addition, the study presents a methodology to quantify the effects of climate change on rainwater harvesting based gardening. Results of the study may not be accurate due to the assumptions made for climate projections and may need to be further refined. We used a tank flow model and an irrigation water model. Then we established three simple climate scenarios and analyzed the impact of climate change on harvested rain and horticulture production for a semi-arid region in northern Namibia. In the two climate scenarios with decreased precipitation and medium/high temperature increase; adaptation measures are required to avoid substantial decreases in horticulture production. The study found that the most promising adaptation measures to sustain yields and revenues are a more water efficient garden variant and an enlargement of the roof size. The proposed measures can partly or completely compensate the negative impacts of climate change.

  4. Assessment of the impacts of climate change and brackish irrigation water on rice productivity and evaluation of adaptation measures in Ca Mau province, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deb, Proloy; Tran, Duong Anh; Udmale, Parmeshwar D.

    2016-08-01

    This study investigates the temporal impacts of climate change on rice yield for summer-autumn (SA) and autumn-winter (AW) cropping pattern along with implication of brackish irrigation water for the SA season. Furthermore, evaluation of different agro-adaptations to overcome negative impacts of climate change was also done for Ca Mau province of Vietnam. Climatic variables were derived from six general circulation models which were further bias corrected at Ca Mau city station for three future time periods (2025s, 2055s, and 2085s). Calibrated AquaCrop 4.0 was used to project the future rice yield under climate change and different salinity levels in irrigation water. Simulation shows a decline in rice yield ranging from 1.60 to 23.69 % and 8.06 to 20.15 % by 2085s relative to baseline climate for A2 and B2 scenarios respectively in the case of the SA cropping season. However, an increase in rice yield ranging from 3.29 to 12.35 % and 6.64 to 17.23 % is observed for the corresponding time period and scenarios. Further simulations for the SA cropping season under climate change and increasing salinity in irrigation water suggest an insignificant increase in yield relative to the yield obtained without irrigation. Moreover, proper management practices, namely forward and early shifts in transplanting dates along with increasing fertilizer application rates, are observed to be beneficial to enhance the rice yield under climate change.

  5. Life cycle assessment part 2: current impact assessment practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennington, D W; Potting, J; Finnveden, G; Lindeijer, E; Jolliet, O; Rydberg, T; Rebitzer, G

    2004-07-01

    Providing our society with goods and services contributes to a wide range of environmental impacts. Waste generation, emissions and the consumption of resources occur at many stages in a product's life cycle-from raw material extraction, energy acquisition, production and manufacturing, use, reuse, recycling, through to ultimate disposal. These all contribute to impacts such as climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, photooxidant formation (smog), eutrophication, acidification, toxicological stress on human health and ecosystems, the depletion of resources and noise-among others. The need exists to address these product-related contributions more holistically and in an integrated manner, providing complimentary insights to those of regulatory/process-oriented methodologies. A previous article (Part 1, Rebitzer et al., 2004) outlined how to define and model a product's life cycle in current practice, as well as the methods and tools that are available for compiling the associated waste, emissions and resource consumption data into a life cycle inventory. This article highlights how practitioners and researchers from many domains have come together to provide indicators for the different impacts attributable to products in the life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) phase of life cycle assessment (LCA). PMID:15051247

  6. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  7. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

  8. Environmental impact assessment Geopressure Subprogram

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1977-07-01

    This environmental impact assessment (EIA) addresses the expected programmatic activities of the Geopressure Subprogram of the Division of Geothermal Energy. The goal of the Geopressure Subprogram is to stimulate development of geopressured resources as an economic, reliable, operationally safe, and environmentally acceptable energy source. The subprogram includes activities in the areas of engineering research and development; resource exploration, assessment, and development; resource utilization including pilot and demonstration facilities; and environmental research and control technology development. It should be recognized that most of the subprogram activities extend over several years and are in their early stages of implementation at this time. The zones of potential geopressure development are in the region located along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coasts extending up to 200 miles (300 km) inland. Geopressured zones are sedimentary basins where water is trapped at high pressures within or below thick, nearly impermeable shale sequences. The confined water supports most or all of the weight of the overburden. This inhibits sediment compaction and causes formation pore pressure to exceed hydrostatic pressure. in sedimentary basins that are underlain by thin oceanic crust, upward thermal conduction from the mantle heats geopressured fluids and sediments to abnormally high temperatures, often in excess of 260 C (500 F).

  9. Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: an assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Creutzig, Felix; Ravindranath, N. H.; Berndes, Göran; Bolwig, Simon; Bright, Ryan; Cherubini, Francesco; Chum, Helena; Corbera, Esteve; Delucchi, Mark; Faaij, Andre; Fargione, Joseph; Haberl, Helmut; Heath, Garvin; Lucon, Oswaldo; Plevin, Richard; Popp, Alexander; Robledo-Abad, Carmenza; Rose, Steven; Smith, Pete; Stromman, Anders; Sangwon, Suh; Masera, Omar

    2015-01-01

    Bioenergy deployment offers significant potential for climate change mitigation, but also carries considerable risks. In this review, we bring together perspectives of various communities involved in the research and regulation of bioenergy deployment in the context of climate change mitigation......: Land-use and energy experts, land-use and integrated assessment modelers, human geographers, ecosystem researchers, climate scientists and two different strands of life-cycle assessment experts. We summarize technological options, outline the state-of-the-art knowledge on various climate effects...... met, large-scale deployment (>200 EJ), together with BECCS, could help to keep global warming below 2° degrees of preindustrial levels; but such high deployment of land-intensive bioenergy feedstocks could also lead to detrimental climate effects, negatively impact ecosystems, biodiversity and...

  10. Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: an assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Creutzig, Felix; Ravindranath, N. H.; Berndes, Göran;

    2015-01-01

    met, large-scale deployment (>200 EJ), together with BECCS, could help to keep global warming below 2° degrees of preindustrial levels; but such high deployment of land-intensive bioenergy feedstocks could also lead to detrimental climate effects, negatively impact ecosystems, biodiversity and......Bioenergy deployment offers significant potential for climate change mitigation, but also carries considerable risks. In this review, we bring together perspectives of various communities involved in the research and regulation of bioenergy deployment in the context of climate change mitigation......: Land-use and energy experts, land-use and integrated assessment modelers, human geographers, ecosystem researchers, climate scientists and two different strands of life-cycle assessment experts. We summarize technological options, outline the state-of-the-art knowledge on various climate effects...

  11. Climatic change and impacts: a general introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    These proceedings are divided into six parts containing 29 technical papers. 1. An Overview of the Climatic System, 2. Past climate Changes, 3. Climate Processes and Climate Modelling, 4. Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change, 5. Climatic Impacts, 6. STUDENTS' PAPERS

  12. Impact of Climate Change on Forests in India

    OpenAIRE

    Ravindranath, NH; Joshi, NV; Sukumar, R.; Saxena, A.

    2005-01-01

    Global assessments have shown that future climate change is likely to significantly impact forest ecosystems. The present study makes an assessment of the impact of projected climate change on forest ecosystems in India. This assessment is based on climate projections of Regional Climate Model of the Hadley Centre (HadRM3) using the A2 (740 ppm CO2) and B2 (575 ppm CO2) scenarios of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the BIOME4 vegetation response model. The main conclusion is that und...

  13. Finnish food chain impacts on climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Kurppa, Sirpa; Virtanen, Yrjö

    2010-01-01

    The evaluation of the food chain’s environmental impacts was conducted using an environmentalaccounting model developed specifically for the Finnish food chain. The model is based on production and environmental impact data from year 2005. The model considers both Finnish production and Finnish imports in addition to their transport. The targets of the evaluation were the environmental impacts, in 2005, stemming from production. Environmental impacts of the end-use phase were not assessed....

  14. History of Virtual Water , International Trade and Economic Metabolism at the Time Colonialism and a First Attempt to Assess Their Impact on Hydrologic Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greco, F.

    2008-12-01

    This research considers the historical impact of virtual water into the geophysical arena by considering it as a human-led phenomenon that impacts the hydrologic system and, consequently, the environment as a whole. This paper is in line with the idea of including the humans into the water-balance model, and it is deepening the idea that this has to be done not only at the light of each watershed, but globally, looking at the role of water-trade embedded in food and tradable goods. Starting from a definition of what virtual water is, this research explores the role of crops export in the early U.S. Colonial time. As early as 1630 a huge biomass from here was already exported to the UK (the fur trade). In 1700 the tobacco export started, along with cereals exports and timber. An entire ecosystem has been "exported" in terms of water-embedded-in-goods. This was the beginning of a massive depletion of bio-mass stocks and flows, a raise in nitrogen discharge into the environment and its impact on the hydrological systems ( CUAHSI Summer Institute findings). Immigration and its effects on the water balance is also considered in this work. The experiment of interdisciplinary work of CUAHSI Summer Institute 2008 has proven that there is space for a historical reconstruction of evidence of human-led changes to the hydrological systems. This has been possible through the analysis of material stocks and flows, water-balance analysis of these stocks and flows, including human-led changes like international trade and population growth. This proposal will argue that these changes can also be identified by the term of 'socio- economic metabolism', in which societies are trading their goods internationally but taking the primary resources, including water, locally. This work will put the basis for the history of virtual water and its implications on both socio-economic metabolism and local geophysical changes.

  15. Proposal of standardization in environmental impact assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Maitê de Souza Sandoval; Leandro Eugenio da Silva Cerri

    2009-01-01

    The evaluation of the significance of environmental impacts remains an important critical yet poorly understood component of environmental impact assessment (EIA) practice. This work is a study upon the findings of a bibliographic review about the evaluation and communication of environmental impact assessment in Brazil practice. Particular attention is given to the use of significance criteria, thresholds and EIA methodologies intending to incorporate more efficiency of environmental impact ...

  16. Assessing the impact of climate variability and climate change on runoff in West Africa: The case of Senegal and Nakambe River basins

    OpenAIRE

    Karambiri, H.; García Galiano, S.G.; J. D. Giraldo; Yacouba, H.; Ibrahim, B; Barbier, B.; Polcher, J.

    2011-01-01

    West Africa and its people are very vulnerable to climate variability and changes. Increasing the knowledge of plausible trends of rainfall dry spell lengths (DSL) in the rainy season, and of runoff, enables the assessment of vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the system. These predictions are crucial from a water management and policy perspective. The analyses based on regional climate models (RCMs) and observed datasets exhibit non-stationary behavior and an increase of DSL. Our results...

  17. Distributional Aspects of Climate Change Impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper gives a brief review about the state of knowledge on the distributional aspects of climate change impacts. The paper is largely limited to the distribution of impacts between countries (in Section 2). Although there are virtually no estimates reported in the literature, the distribution of impacts within countries is also important. Impact estimates for different sectors (agriculture, health, sea level rise) provides little guidance for estimating differential impacts within countries. It is even harder to find estimates based on social classes. The paper restricts itself to equity about the consequences of climate change. Equity issues about the consequences of emission reduction are ignored here, but should of course be part of a policy analysis. Equity issues about procedures for decision making are also ignored. The paper is organised as follows. Section 2 reviews recent estimates of the regional impacts of climate change. Section 3 discusses alternative ways of aggregating regional impact estimates. Section 4 focusses on the vulnerability of the poor to climate change impacts, both with respect to exposure as well as to their limited capacity for adaptation. Section 5 discusses the impacts of economic development and other dynamic changes on vulnerability. The paper abstains from a discussion of aggregating climate change impacts over time, partly because the literature on that is too substantial to be reviewed here, and partly because, under virtually all scenarios, the current generation is the poorest and therefore particularly worthy in equity considerations. In Section 6 we present salient conclusions

  18. Environmental impact assessment: Process and implementation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper, the procedures and issues regarding the preparation of an environmental impact assessment in accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) as promulgated by the US Congress in 1969 are discussed. NEPA procedures and requirements are covered in general, while particular attention is given to the preparation of the environmental impact assessment. Also included is a discussion of the social impact assessment. The aim of the social impact assessment is to address the social issues involved in enhancing public understanding of the hazardous risks, thereby mitigating any conflicts that may arise in the NEPA process. 3 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  19. The Impact of Climate Change on Global Tropical Storm Damages

    OpenAIRE

    Mendelsohn, Robert; Emanuel, Kerry; Chonabayashi, Shun

    2011-01-01

    This paper constructs an integrated assessment model of tropical cyclones in order to quantify the impact that climate change may have on tropical cyclone damages in countries around the world. The paper relies on a tropical cyclone generator in each ocean and several climate models to predict tropical cyclones with and without climate change. A damage model is constructed to compute the r...

  20. A Physically Based Surface/ Subsurface Flow Model to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change Extremes on the Hydrology of an Upper Midwest U.S. Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acar, O.; Franz, K.; Simpkins, W. W.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change is already affecting the Midwest U.S. Occurrence and intensity of extreme events such as heat waves, droughts and floods are expected to increase in the next few decades. It is the climate extremes, not averages, that have the greater impact on crop and livestock productivity which are vital for the State's economy. Accordingly, potential changes in the hydrologic cycle under prospective climate conditions need to be addressed at the watershed scale for the Midwestern agricultural region to develop better management and adaptation solutions. For this purpose, the 3-D finite element model, HydroGeoSphere has been applied to and calibrated for a representative watershed in north-central Iowa, Tipton Creek watershed. The conceptual model for the watershed consists of all the elements of the hydrologic cycle from the ground surface through the Quaternary aquitard and into the underlying Mississippian limestone aquifer. Extreme wet and dry conditions derived from statistically downscaled climate model scenarios have been used as input to the basin model to simulate the impacts on streamflow and groundwater flow. The model accomplishes integrated hydrologic analysis by the coupled solution of the diffusion wave equation governing 2-D (areal) surface water flow and the Richards' equation governing 3-D unsaturated/ saturated subsurface flow. Thus, actual evapotranspiration is calculated internally as a function of the soil moisture at each node of the defined evaporative zone at each time step and interdependent processes like recharge that are critical for climate change can be handled more accurately. Preliminary results for HadCM3 scenario combined with two SRES projections, A2 and A1fi predict more remarkable increases in stream levels in response to wet periods than the decreases in flows for dry periods in comparison to control (contemporary) period simulations. The impacts on the water table levels seem to be more prominent, in the range of ±4 m for

  1. Conceptual Model of Climate Change Impacts at LANL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dewart, Jean Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-17

    Goal 9 of the LANL FY15 Site Sustainability Plan (LANL 2014a) addresses Climate Change Adaptation. As part of Goal 9, the plan reviews many of the individual programs the Laboratory has initiated over the past 20 years to address climate change impacts to LANL (e.g. Wildland Fire Management Plan, Forest Management Plan, etc.). However, at that time, LANL did not yet have a comprehensive approach to climate change adaptation. To fill this gap, the FY15 Work Plan for the LANL Long Term Strategy for Environmental Stewardship and Sustainability (LANL 2015) included a goal of (1) establishing a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts at LANL and (2) establishing specific climate change indices to measure climate change and impacts at Los Alamos. Establishing a conceptual model of climate change impacts will demonstrate that the Laboratory is addressing climate change impacts in a comprehensive manner. This paper fulfills the requirement of goal 1. The establishment of specific indices of climate change at Los Alamos (goal 2), will improve our ability to determine climate change vulnerabilities and assess risk. Future work will include prioritizing risks, evaluating options/technologies/costs, and where appropriate, taking actions. To develop a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts, we selected the framework provided in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Resilience Toolkit (http://toolkit.climate.gov/).

  2. Climate Change Impacts on Turkish Vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forrest, Matthew; Dönmez, Cenk; Çilek, Ahmet; Akif Erdogan, Mehmet; Buontempo, Carlo; Hickler, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    The Mediterranean has been identified as a potentially vulnerable hotspot under climate change. In Turkey, climate change projections consistently predict large temperature rises over the 21st century. With 9% of GDP and 25% of employment coming from agriculture, climate change has the potential to significantly affect both the Turkish economy and living standards. Relatively little work has been undertaken to estimate the effects and risks of climate change in Turkey, and many European studies cover do not include the whole of Turkey in their domain and so are of limited use for policy-makers. The Dynamic Global Vegetation Model LPJ-GUESS was parametrised to represent Turkish vegetation. Climate forcings were derived by interpolating meteorological data from over 600 stations from 1975-2010 to a 1km resolution. Soil depth and soil texture data from field measurements were also interpolated to a 1km grid. The model was benchmarked against vegetation type and remotely sensed biomass and tree cover data. Future climate conditions were calculated using the outputs from a set of regional model simulations. In particular the HadRM3P regional climate model was used to downscale five members of a perturbed physics ensemble of global climate projections obtained using HadCM3 general circulation model and the SRES A1B scenario. A delta change factor approach was then used in conjunction with the observed climate data to assess the impact on vegetation structure and ecological processes to the year 2100 using LPJ-GUESS. The resulting changes to productivity, vegetation structure and hydrology are discussed. Eventually these results will be combined with complementary studies concerning wildfire and erosion to produce a risk map for informing policy-makers.

  3. Environmental impact of climate change in pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change results in the increase or decrease in temperature and rainfall. These have significant impact on environment - impinge agricultural crop yields, affect human health, cause changes to forests and other ecosystems, and even impact our energy supply. Climate change is a global phenomenon and its impact can be observed on Pakistan's economy and environment. This paper contains details concerning the climate change and environmental impacts. It takes into account current and projected key vulnerabilities, prospects for adaptation, and the relationships between climate change mitigation and environment. The purpose of the study is to devise national policies and incentive systems combined with national level capacity-building programs to encourage demand-oriented conservation technologies. Recommendations are also made to abate the climate change related issues in country. (author)

  4. Climate change adaptation impact cost assessment in France. Second phase report. September 2009; Evaluation du cout des impacts du changement climatique et de l'adaptation en France. Rapport de la deuxieme phase. Septembre 2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-07-01

    Firstly, this report presents the context and challenges of works dealing with climate change adaptation assessment: observations and perspectives of climate change, concepts and definitions of adaptation to climate change, adaptation within national, European and international context, objectives and organisation of the France's inter-departmental Group. It describes the chosen methodology: hypothesis, methodological tools (climate model), bibliographical tool, and heat wave counting methodology. It discusses the present results, outlines the encountered difficulties and discusses the perspectives for future work

  5. The Economic Impact of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    TOL, Richard S.J.

    2008-01-01

    I review the literature on the economic impacts of climate change, an externality that is unprecedentedly large, complex, and uncertain. Only 14 estimates of the total damage cost of climate change have been published, a research effort that is in sharp contrast to the urgency of the public debate and the proposed expenditure on greenhouse gas emission reduction. These estimates show that climate change initially improves economic welfare. However, these benefits are sunk. Impacts would be pr...

  6. Welfare impacts of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hof, Andries F.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change can affect well-being in poor economies more than previously shown if its effect on economic growth, and not only on current production, is considered. But this result does not necessarily suggest greater mitigation efforts are required.

  7. Companies' strategies to decrease environmental impacts: the French example of the environmental impacts assessments law implementation

    OpenAIRE

    Borderon, Séverine; Sanseverino-Godfrin, Valérie

    2011-01-01

    Companies' impacts on biodiversity can provoke irreversible damage. Biodiversity is drastically decreasing, and alarming preoccupations related to climate change arise. It is important to take conscience that humans' activities play an important part on such a result. In order to help companies to limit their impact on biodiversity, the law has developed tools such as environmental impact assessments. It aims at responsibilising firms by improving their knowledge on their environmental impact...

  8. Environmental impact assessment in the Nordic Countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A meeting on Environmental Impact Assessment has been held in Iceland, September 2-6, 2000. It was held within the framework of the project NKS/SOS-3 (Radioactive waste), subproject NKS/SOS-3.1 (Environmental Impact Assessment). The meeting included presentations, discussions and a study trip to the Egilsstadir and Myvatn districts. (au)

  9. Impacts of Climate Change and of Anthropisation on Water Resources: from the Risk Assessment to Adaptation, the Case of the Seine Basin (including Paris, France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habets, F.; Viennot, P.; Thierion, C.; Vergnes, J. P.; Ait Kaci, A.; Caballero, Y.

    2015-12-01

    The Seine river, located in the temperate climate of northern France and flowing over a large sedimentary basins that hosts multilayer aquifers, is characterized by small temporal variations of its discharge. However, the presence of a megacity (Paris) and a wide area of intensive agriculture combined with climate change puts pressure on the water resources both in terms of quality and quantity. Previous research projects have estimated the impact of climate change on the water resource of the Seine basin, with the uncertainties associated to climate projections, hydrological models or downscaling methods. The water resource was projected to decrease by -14 % ± 10 % in 2050 and -28 +/-16% in 2100. This led to new studies that focus on the combined impact of climate change and adaptations. The tested adaptations are: a reduction of the groundwater abstractions, evolution of land use, development of small dams to « harvest water » or artificial recharge of aquifers. The communication of the results of these projects to stakeholders have led to the development on new indicators that better express the risk on the water resource management, especially for the groundwater. For instance maps of the evolution of piezometric head are difficult to interpret. To better express the risk evolution, a new indicator was defined: the evolution of the groundwater crisis duration, ie, the period when the charge of the aquifer is below the crisis piezometric level defined by the stakeholders. Such crisis piezometric levels are used to help defining the period when the groundwater abstraction should be reduced. Such maps are more efficient to communicate with water resources managers. This communication will focus on the results from the MEDDE Explore 2070 and ANR Oracle projects.

  10. The Lithuanian Government’s Policy of Regulatory Impact Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaroslav Dvorak

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper critically evaluates the development of the impact assessment instrument in Lithuania’s public administration and suggests improvements to its impact assessment system. Research question: What interesting conceptual imperatives have appeared in Lithuania’s investigation of the impact of regulatory policy? Methodology: This research study uses positivist methodology to analyse the problems that researchers have identified in Lithuania’s impact assessment. This investigation explains why certain problems have appeared, what has changed and what system changes can be identified traced. The study proceeds as follows. First, the research on impact assessment carried out in Lithuania is analysed. Second, regulations on impact assessment in Lithuania are investigated. A substitute for non-existent integrated theory is emphased by the logical structure of the EU administrative system imperatives, principles, and norms, whose modifications have become the basis of impact assessment system design in Lithuania. The present research combines, integrates and consolidates the theoretical and practical information on impact assessment into an explanatory scheme, which could be developed into a model in the future. Information from two qualitative interviews conducted in 2009 and 2010 was also used. Conclusions: The present research reveals that Lithuania’s regulatory impact assessment model is still being constructed and reconstructed towards evidence-based management. A model which revises the old impact stereotype has been designed, based on contemporary methodologies (cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses, consultations with the interested parties, a small but exhaustive legal initiatives impact assessment, and a centralised and institutional coordination of impact assessment. Practical consequences: The present research presents the issues which could be useful for the states that are starting to implement a

  11. Assessment Impacts of Weather and Land Use/Land Cover (LULC Change on Urban Vegetation Net Primary Productivity (NPP: A Case Study in Guangzhou, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiantie Zeng

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Net primary productivity (NPP can indicate vegetation ecosystem services ability and reflect variation response to climate change and human activities. This study applied MODIS-1 km NPP products to investigate the NPP variation from 2001 to 2006, a fast urban expansion and adjustment period in Guangzhou, China, and quantify the impacts of weather and land use/land cover (LULC changes, respectively. The results showed that the NPP mean value increased at a rate of 11.6 g∙C∙m−2∙yr−1 during the initial three years and decreased at an accelerated rate of 31.0 g∙C∙m−2∙yr−1 during the final three years, resulting in a total NPP loss of approximately 167 × 106 g∙C. The spatiotemporal of NPP varied obviously in the central area, suburb and exurb of Guangzhou driven by three patterns of weather and LULC changes. By the interactive effects and the weather variation dominated effects, NPP of most areas changed slightly with dynamic index less than 5% of NPP mean value in the central area and the suburb. The LULC change dominated effects caused obvious NPP reduction, by more than 15% of the NPP mean value, which occurred in some areas of the suburb and extended to the exurb with the outward urban sprawl. Importantly, conversion from wood grassland, shrublands and even forests to croplands occupied by urban landscapes proved to be a main process in the conversion from high-NPP coverage to low-NPP coverage, thereby leading to the rapid degradation of urban carbon stock capacity in urban fringe areas. It is helpful for government to monitor urban ecological health and safety and make relevant policies.

  12. Impact Assessment of Ecosystem Influenced by Changing Global Climate and its National Management Practices II - Focusing on me bioclimatic model development of the forest -

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeon, S.W.; Park, Y.H; Chung, W.C.; Hideo, H.; Kiyoshi, T. [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    2001-12-01

    In order to assess the influences from climate change, lots of studies have been conducted in Asia/Pacific region recently. The analyzed contents in these studies have a wide range of uncertainty even though the results were limited to the direct influences. While the geographical resolutions of various data used in the model are important factors, integration and expansion of the basic physical and biological reactions is another problem. The results from the previous researches suggest that there will be some problems, which are not to reflect the climate change correctly due to the regional small scale and various utilization of land, if data of the existing large-scale influence model is applied to Korea as it is. This study adopts data of 5 large-scale GCM (Global Circulation Model) in order to find the special climate change pattern and estimates the influences from climate change based on the pattern. In the interpretation of the results from this study, therefore, it is necessary to apply the method, which simultaneously analyzes averages and ranges of the estimated influences by 5 GCM, when forecasting influences by scenarios in 2003, the third year of this study. On considering this background, even though the averages and transition ranges of GCM data in this study provide many suggestions for estimating the influences ranges of forest, their application should be conducted after the serious examination because they do not perfectly reflect the regional microclimate. 108 refs., 56 figs., 24 tabs.

  13. Assessing the environmental consequences of global climate and economic changes in Venezuela: Impacts of the greenhouse effect and of free trade agreements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The ecological resources of most Latin American countries are subject to intense pressures for economic and industrial development which need to be balanced with local and global concerns about the long term sustainability of that resource base. Global issues and their potential long term effects should not be ignored when environmental policy strategies at the national level are elaborated. In this paper, the potential environmental consequences of two important global changes are examined, by taking Venezuela as a country case study: changes in climate, temperature, precipitation and radiation, generated by the greenhouse effect and changes in environmental stresses originating from shifts in local economic activity due to changing global trade, specifically free trade agreements. Both assessments are conducted using scenario-consequence approaches and expert judgment. The first analysis reported here is an example of the application of simulation models of global climate and local ecosystems, whereas the second analysis demonstrates the application of screening methodology which relies on processing of qualitative information. The approaches illustrated here are generic and can be applied to other Latin American countries

  14. Impact assessment of climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and mustard (Brassica spp.) production and its adaptation strategies in different districts of Gujarat, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, V.; Patel, H. R.; Yadav, S. B.; Patil, D. D.

    2015-12-01

    Gujarat is the western-most state of India with a long (1600 km) sea coast on the Arabian Sea. Average annual rainfall ranges from as high as 1900 mm in the sub-humid southeast to as low as 250 mm in the arid north. There are three distinct crop seasons- rainy (June to September), winter (Oct.-Nov. through Feb.-March) and summer (Feb-March through May-June). Wheat and mustard are grown during winter seasons. The past climatic records suggested increasing trends in rainfall( 2 to 5 mm per year), maximum (0.03 to 0.05 0C per year) and minimum temperatures (0.02 to 0.05 0C per year) at most of places in Gujarat. But the minimum temperature is fould to be increasing significantly at all the locations. This affects the winter season crops viz. wheat and mustard adversely. Simulation results with DSSAT CERES-wheat model revealed that with increase in temperature by 2 0C in different months (November to February) the decrease in wheat yield is observed between 7 to 29 per cent. The impact of increase in maximum temperature during early (November) and late (February) is less (24.8 %). The climate change projections during 2071-2100 using PRECIS output suggested that there would be increase in maximum temperature by 3.2 to 5.2 0C in different districts of Gujarat over baseline period of 1961-1990 while minimum temperature is project to increase by 2.8 to 5.8 0C. Rainfall is also projected to increase by 28 to 70 per cent in different districts. The impact of climate change on wheat would be reduction in its duration by 14-20 days and the grain yield would be reduced by 20-55 per cent in different districts. In case of mustard crops the duration of crop would be reduced by 11 to 16 days and seed yield would be reduced by 32-50 per cent. In order to mitigate the ill effect of climate change, various adaptation strategies vis change in dates of sowing, change in variety, additional irrigation and fertilizer applications were simulated. Shifting of sowing dates of wheat by 15

  15. Impacts of climate change in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main conclusion of the study on the title subject is that the impacts of climatic change in the Netherlands are still limited. However, the impacts will be stronger in the next decades and will be even problematic at the end of this century. In this book an overview is given of probable changes in the climate for the Netherlands, danger for flooding in specific areas of the Netherlands, changes of the nature, impacts for agriculture, tourism and recreation, and industry and businesses, and risks for public health

  16. Climate change and global crop yield: impacts, uncertainties and adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Deryng, Delphine

    2014-01-01

    As global mean temperature continues to rise steadily, agricultural systems are projected to face unprecedented challenges to cope with climate change. However, understanding of climate change impacts on global crop yield, and of farmers’ adaptive capacity, remains incomplete as previous global assessments: (1) inadequately evaluated the role of extreme weather events; (2) focused on a small subset of the full range of climate change predictions; (3) overlooked uncertainties related to the ch...

  17. Using the CLM Crop Model to assess the impacts of changes in Climate, Atmospheric CO2, Irrigation, Fertilizer and Geographic Distribution on Historical and Future Crop Yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, P.

    2015-12-01

    Since the start of the green revolution global crop yields have increased linearly for most major cereal crops, so that present day global values are around twice those of the 1960s. The increase in crop yields have allowed for large increases in global agricultural production without correspondingly large increases in cropping area. Future projections under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) framework and other assessments result in increases of global crop production of greater than 100% by the year 2050. In order to meet this increased agricultural demand within the available arable land, future production gains need to be understood in terms of the yield changes due to changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, and adaptive management such as irrigation and fertilizer application. In addition to the changes in crop yield, future agricultural demand will need to be met through increasing cropping areas into what are currently marginal lands at the cost of existing forests and other natural ecosystems. In this study we assess the utility of the crop model within the Community Land Model (CLM Crop) to provide both historical and future guidance on changes in crop yields under a range of global idealized crop modeling experiments. The idealized experiments follow the experimental design of the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) in which CLM Crop is a participating model. The idealized experiments consist of global crop simulations for Cotton, Maize, Rice, Soy, Sugarcane, and Wheat under various climate, atmospheric CO2 levels, irrigation prescription, and nitrogen fertilizer application. The time periods simulated for the experiments are for the Historical period (1901 - 2005), and for the two Representative Concentration Pathways of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (2006 - 2100). Each crop is simulated on all land grid cells globally for each time period with atmospheric forcing that is a combination of: 1. transient climate and CO2; 2. transient climate

  18. Handbook for value-impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The basic purpose of this handbook is to document a set of systematic procedures for providing information that can be used in performing value-impact assessments of Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulatory actions. The handbook describes a structured but flexible process for performing the assessment. Chapter 1 is an introduction to the value-impact assessment process. Chapter 2 describes the attributes most frequently affected by proposed NRC actions, provides guidance concerningthe appropriate level of effort to be devoted to the assessment, suggests a standard format for documenting the assessment, and discusses the treatment of uncertainty. Chapter 3 contains detailed methods for evaluating each of the attributes affected by a regulatory action. The handbook has five appendixes containing background information, technical data, and example applications of the value-impact assessment procedures. This edition of the handbook focuses primarily on assessing nuclear power reactor safety issues

  19. Livelihood Vulnerability Approach to Assess Climate Change Impacts to Mixed Agro-Livestock Smallholders Around the Gandaki River Basin of Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panthi, J., Sr.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change vulnerability depends upon various factors and differs between places, sectors and communities. People in developing countries whose subsistence livelihood depends upon agriculture and livestock are identified as particularly vulnerable. Nepal, where the majority of people are in a mixed agro-livestock system, is identified as the world's fourth most vulnerable country to climate change. However, there are few studies on how vulnerable mixed agro-livestock smallholders are and how their vulnerability differs across different ecological regions. This study aims to test two vulnerability assessment indices, livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and IPCC vulnerability index (VI-IPCC), around the Gandaki river basin of Nepal. A total of 543 households practicing mixed agro-livestock were surveyed from three districts (Dhading, Syangja and Kapilvastu) representing the mountain, mid-hill and lowland altitudinal belts respectively. Data on socio-demographics, livelihoods, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters and climate variability were collected. Both indices differed across the three districts, with mixed agro-livestock smallholders of Dhading district found to be the most vulnerable and that of Syangja least vulnerable. This vulnerability index approach may be used to monitor rural vulnerability and/or evaluate potential program/policy effectiveness in poor countries like Nepal. The present findings are intended to help in designing intervention strategies to reduce vulnerability of mixed agro-livestock smallholders and other rural people in developing countries to climate change.

  20. Free event: Impacts of climate change research

    OpenAIRE

    Blog Admin, Impact of Social Sciences,

    2012-01-01

    Impacts of Climate Change Research, a free, half-day conference hosted by the LSE’s Public Policy Group/Impact of Social Sciences project and Imperial College London, will be held on Monday, 21st May, at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

  1. Creating a Culture of Assessment: A Catalyst for Organizational Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lakos, Amos; Phipps, Shelley E.

    2004-01-01

    In the rapidly changing information environment, libraries have to demonstrate that their services have relevance, value, and impact for stakeholders and customers. To deliver effective and high quality services, libraries have to assess their performance from the customer point of view. Moving to an assessment framework will be more successful if…

  2. Learning from integrated assessment of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of integrated assessment of climate change is to put available knowledge together in order to evaluate what has been learned, policy implications, and research needs. This paper summarizes insights gained from five years of integrated assessment activity at Carnegie Mellon. After an introduction, Section 2 asks; who are the climate decision makers? It is concluded that they are a diffuse and often divergent group s