WorldWideScience

Sample records for change impact assessments

  1. Change Agents & Impact Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kørnøv, Lone; Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Hansen, Anne Merrild

    2010-01-01

    One of the challenges facing impact assessment is finding ways to work in research and practice that allow appropriate action and critical interrogation og action to enable and support sustainable change.......One of the challenges facing impact assessment is finding ways to work in research and practice that allow appropriate action and critical interrogation og action to enable and support sustainable change....

  2. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J. [eds.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  3. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, G; Stone, D

    2016-01-01

    © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts...

  4. Climate Change in Environmental Impact Assessment of Renewable Energy Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2012-01-01

    Many renewable energy projects are subject to EIA. However a question that surfaces is what use an impact assessment is when the project is ‘good for the environment’? One of the current topics receiving much attention in impact assessment is climate change and how this factor is integrated...... in impact assessments. This warrants the question: How do we assess the climate change related impacts of a project that inherently has a positive effect on climate? This paper is based on a document study of EIA reports from Denmark. The results show that climate change is included in most of the EIA...... reports reviewed, and that only climate change mitigation is in focus while adaptation is absent. Also the results point to focus on positive impacts, while the indirect negative impacts are less apparent. This leads to a discussion of the results in the light of the purpose of EIA....

  5. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hansen, G.E.

    2015-01-01

    Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    Gerrit Hansen

    Global climate change is unequivocal, and greenhouse gas emissions continue rising despite international mitigation efforts. Hence whether and to what extent the impacts of human induced

  6. The regional impacts of climate change: an assessment of vulnerability

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zinyowera, Marufu C; Moss, Richard H; Watson, R. T

    1998-01-01

    .... The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health...

  7. Assessing the likely impacts of climate change on infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holper, Paul; Nolan, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Full text: In 2005, the Victorian Government contracted CSIRO, Maunsell Australia and Phillips Fox to undertake an overview assessment of the likely impacts of climate change on the State's infrastructure, establish the categories of infrastructure most at risk and outline opportunities for adaptation responses. The Government released the assessment in May 2007. Climate change poses a significant risk to infrastructure and its owners, managers and long-term operators. The work was undertaken on the basis that it should not be assumed that future climate and its impacts will simply be an extension of what has been experienced in the past. Major infrastructure items have long useful life spans (20-100 years). A bridge built today is expected to still be in use in tens, if not hundreds, of years. This means that recognition of likely climate change impacts and appropriate adaptation measures should occur now. Recognition of the risks associated with climate change is a valuable first step towards better planning of new infrastructure investments and reducing potential damage to existing infrastructure.lnfrastructure types examined were water, power, telecommunications, transport and buildings. The climate change projections used in this report are based on CSIRO climate modelling, supported by findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climatic and other variables considered were temperature, rainfall, available moisture, humidity, winds, fire-weather frequency and intensity, solar radiation levels and sea-level rise. For each climate change variable identified, we described a worst-case impact for low and high climate change projections for the years 2030 and 2070. The assessment was made on the basis of 'business as usual' with no adaptation responses to climate change. The report also details the current governance structures associated with each infrastructure type. Overall, the report assessed the likely impact of climate change on

  8. Climate change adaptation impact cost assessment in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    This document reports the works of an inter-departmental group and of sector-based and transverse groups which aimed at assessing the impacts of climate change. After a first contribution about the assessment methodology, the works of sector-based groups and transverse groups are reported. These groups are dealing with agriculture, forest, infrastructures and built environment, tourism, energy, health, water, natural risks (and insurance and adaptation to climatic change in metropolitan France), biodiversity and land. For each of them, challenges, assessment approaches, first results and perspectives are discussed

  9. Multi-model approach to assess the impact of climate change on runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dams, J.; Nossent, J.; Senbeta, T. B.; Willems, P.; Batelaan, O.

    2015-10-01

    The assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology is subject to uncertainties related to the climate change scenarios, stochastic uncertainties of the hydrological model and structural uncertainties of the hydrological model. This paper focuses on the contribution of structural uncertainty of hydrological models to the overall uncertainty of the climate change impact assessment. To quantify the structural uncertainty of hydrological models, four physically based hydrological models (SWAT, PRMS and a semi- and fully distributed version of the WetSpa model) are set up for a catchment in Belgium. Each model is calibrated using four different objective functions. Three climate change scenarios with a high, mean and low hydrological impact are statistically perturbed from a large ensemble of climate change scenarios and are used to force the hydrological models. This methodology allows assessing and comparing the uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios with the uncertainty introduced by the hydrological model structure. Results show that the hydrological model structure introduces a large uncertainty on both the average monthly discharge and the extreme peak and low flow predictions under the climate change scenarios. For the low impact climate change scenario, the uncertainty range of the mean monthly runoff is comparable to the range of these runoff values in the reference period. However, for the mean and high impact scenarios, this range is significantly larger. The uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios is larger than the uncertainty due to the hydrological model structure for the low and mean hydrological impact scenarios, but the reverse is true for the high impact climate change scenario. The mean and high impact scenarios project increasing peak discharges, while the low impact scenario projects increasing peak discharges only for peak events with return periods larger than 1.6 years. All models suggest for all scenarios a

  10. Methodologies for assessing socio-economic impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smit, B.

    1993-01-01

    Much of the studies on climate change impacts have focused on physical and biological impacts, yet a knowledge of the social and economic impacts of climate change is likely to have a greater impact on the public and on policymakers. A conventional assessment of the impacts of climate change begins with scenarios of future climate, commonly derived from global climate models translated to a regional scale. Estimates of biophysical conditions provided by such scenarios provide a basis for analyses of human impacts, usually considered sector by sector. The scenario approach, although having considerable merit and appeal, has some noteworthy limitations. It encourages consideration of only a small set of scenarios, requires bold assumptions to be made about adjustments in human systems, provides little direct analysis of sensitivities of human social and economic systems to climate perturbations, and usually invokes the assumption that all factors other than climate are stable and have no synergistic effects on human systems. Conventional studies concentrate on average climate, yet climate is inherently variable. A common response to this situation is to propose further development of climate models, but this is not a sufficient or necessary condition for good and useful assessments of impacts on human activities. Different approaches to socioeconomic impact analysis are needed, and approaches should be considered that include identification of sensitivities in a social or ecological system, identification of critical threshold levels or critical speeds of change in variables, and exploration of alternative methodologies such as process studies, spatial and temporal analogues, and socio-economic systems modelling. 5 refs., 3 figs

  11. Assessing climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessing climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for smallholder agricultural systems in Uganda. ... from encroaching on swamps, which is one of the reported adaptation strategies to climate related stresses. Improving productivity of important crops (bananas for southwest, and sweet potatoes and bananas

  12. Construction of climate change scenarios from transient climate change experiments for the IPCC impacts assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viner, D.; Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.; Jones, P.D.

    1994-01-01

    This paper outlines the different methods which may be used for the construction of regional climate change scenarios. The main focus of the paper is the construction of global climate change scenarios from climate change experiments carried out using General Circulation Models (GCMS) An introduction to some GCM climate change experiments highlights the difference between model types and experiments (e.g., equilibrium or transient). The latest generation of climate change experiments has been performed using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMS. These allow transient simulations of climate change to be performed with respect to a given greenhouse gas forcing scenario. There are, however, a number of problems with these simulations which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios for use in climate change impacts assessment. The characteristics of the transient climate change experiments which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios are discussed. Three examples of these problems are: different climate change experiments use different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios; the 'cold-start' problem makes it difficult to link future projections of climate change to a given calendar year; a drift of the climate is noticeable in the control simulations. In order to construct climate change scenarios for impacts assessment a method has therefore to be employed which addresses these problems. At present the climate modeling and climate change impacts communities are somewhat polarized in their approach to spatial scales. Current GCMs model the climate at resolutions larger than 2.5 x 3.75 degree, while the majority of impacts assessment studies are undertaken at scales below 50km (or 0.5 degree). This paper concludes by addressing the problems in bringing together these two different modeling perspectives by presenting a number of regional climate change scenarios. 35 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs

  13. Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandryk, M.; Reidsma, P.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2012-01-01

    Towards 2050, climate change is one of the possible drivers that will change the farming landscape, but market, policy and technological development may be at least equally important. In the last decade, many studies assessed impacts of climate change and specific adaptation strategies. However,

  14. Building a stakeholder network for the Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dukes, J. S.; Widhalm, M.

    2017-12-01

    The Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment (IN CCIA) is a stakeholder-informed, service-driven resource developed under the coordination of the Purdue Climate Change Research Center (PCCRC) and with involvement from a diverse mix of contributors throughout the state. The IN CCIA brings together the best available climate change research into a series of reports aimed at helping Hoosiers better understand climate change-related risks so they can prepare for challenges and capitalize on opportunities. The IN CCIA development process aims to 1) increase the dialogue about climate change across the state, 2) provide Indiana decision makers with accessible, credible climate impact information, and 3) build a network of experts and stakeholders to support ongoing assessment efforts and knowledge sharing. This presentation will report on our experience with developing and maintaining a diverse stakeholder network. We will describe our efforts to connect with stakeholders before, during, and after the development of assessment reports and share the top themes that emerged from our pre-assessment inquires and other interactions.

  15. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Observed Climate Change Impacts Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessement Report (AR4) Observed Climate Change Impacts Database contains observed responses to climate...

  16. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aanund Killingtveit

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Currently, hydropower accounts for close to 16% of the world’s total power supply and is the world’s most dominant (86% source of renewable electrical energy. The key resource for hydropower generation is runoff, which is dependent on precipitation. The future global climate is uncertain and thus poses some risk for the hydropower generation sector. The crucial question and challenge then is what will be the impact of climate change on global hydropower generation and what are the resulting regional variations in hydropower generation potential? This paper is a study that aims to evaluate the changes in global hydropower generation resulting from predicted changes in climate. The study uses an ensemble of simulations of regional patterns of changes in runoff, computed from global circulation models (GCM simulations with 12 different models. Based on these runoff changes, hydropower generation is estimated by relating the runoff changes to hydropower generation potential through geographical information system (GIS, based on 2005 hydropower generation. Hydropower data obtained from EIA (energy generation, national sites, FAO (water resources and UNEP were used in the analysis. The countries/states were used as computational units to reduce the complexities of the analysis. The results indicate that there are large variations of changes (increases/decreases in hydropower generation across regions and even within regions. Globally, hydropower generation is predicted to change very little by the year 2050 for the hydropower system in operation today. This change amounts to an increase of less than 1% of the current (2005 generation level although it is necessary to carry out basin level detailed assessment for local impacts which may differ from the country based values. There are many regions where runoff and hydropower generation will increase due to increasing precipitation, but also many regions where there will be a decrease. Based on this

  17. A new economic assessment index for the impact of climate change on grain yield

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Wenjie; Chou, Jieming; Feng, Guolin

    2007-03-01

    The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community. This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional “yield impact of meteorological factor (YIMF)” or “yield impact of weather factor” to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore, the concept of the yield impact of climatic change (YICC), which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields (PUAY) of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China, and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.

  18. A New Economic Assessment Index for the Impact of Climate Change on Grain Yield

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community.This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional "yield impact of meteorological factor (YIMF)" or "yield impact of weather factor" to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore,the concept of the yield impact of climatic change (YICC), which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields (PUAY) of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China,and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.

  19. Assessing climate change impacts on water balance in the Mount

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A statistical downscaling known for producing station-scale climate information from GCM output was preferred to evaluate the impacts of climate change within the Mount Makiling forest watershed, Philippines. The lumped hydrologic BROOK90 model was utilized for the water balance assessment of climate change ...

  20. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, V. H.; Rauscher, H. M.

    1993-04-06

    Models that address the impacts to forests of climate change are reviewed by four levels of biological organization: global, regional or landscape, community, and tree. The models are compared as to their ability to assess changes in greenhouse gas flux, land use, maps of forest type or species composition, forest resource productivity, forest health, biodiversity, and wildlife habitat. No one model can address all of these impacts, but landscape transition models and regional vegetation and land-use models consider the largest number of impacts. Developing landscape vegetation dynamics models of functional groups is suggested as a means to integrate the theory of both landscape ecology and individual tree responses to climate change. Risk assessment methodologies can be adapted to deal with the impacts of climate change at various spatial and temporal scales. Four areas of research development are identified: (1) linking socioeconomic and ecologic models, (2) interfacing forest models at different scales, (3) obtaining data on susceptibility of trees and forest to changes in climate and disturbance regimes, and (4) relating information from different scales.

  1. Health impacts of climate change in Vanuatu: an assessment and adaptation action plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne; McIver, Lachlan

    2013-01-30

    Climate change is one of the greatest global challenges and Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable due to, among other factors, their geography, demography and level of economic development. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used as a basis for the consideration of the potential health impacts of changes in the climate on the population of Vanuatu, to assess the risks and propose a range of potential adaptive responses appropriate for Vanuatu. The HIA process involved the participation of a broad range of stakeholders including expert sector representatives in the areas of bio-physical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food, who provided informed comment and input into the understanding of the potential health impacts and development of adaptation strategies. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed with the application of a qualitative process that considered both the consequences and the likelihood of each of the potential health impacts occurring. Potential adaptation strategies and actions were developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by the various sectors in Vanuatu to contribute to future decision making processes associated with the health impacts of climate change.

  2. Towards an integrated economic assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotze-Campen, H.; Piontek, F.; Stevanovic, M.; Popp, A.; Bauer, N.; Dietrich, J.; Mueller, C.; Schmitz, C.

    2012-12-01

    For a detailed understanding of the effects of climate change on global agricultural production systems, it is essential to consider the variability of climate change patterns as projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs), their bio-physical impact on crops and the response in land-use patterns and markets. So far, approaches that account for the interaction of bio-physical and economic impacts are largely lacking. We present an integrative analysis by using a soft-coupled system of a biophysical impact model (LPJmL, Bondeau et al. 2007), an economically driven land use model (MAgPIE, Lotze-Campen et al. 2008) and an integrated assessment model (ReMIND-R, Leimbach et al. 2010) to study climate change impacts and economic damages in the agricultural sector. First, the dynamic global vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL is used to derive climate change impacts on crop yields for wheat, maize, soy, rice and other major crops. A range of different climate projections is used, taken from the dataset provided by the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP, www.isi-mip.org), which bias-corrected the latest CMIP5 climate data (Taylor et al. 2011). Crop yield impacts cover scenarios with and without CO2 fertilization as well as different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and different GCMs. With increasing temperature towards the end of the century yields generally decrease in tropical and subtropical regions, while they tend to benefit in higher latitudes. LPJmL results have been compared to other global crop models in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP, www.agmip.org). Second, changes in crop yields are analysed with the spatially explicit agro-economic model MAgPIE, which covers their interaction with economic development and changes in food demand. Changes in prices as well as welfare changes of producer and consumer surplus are taken as economic indicators. Due to climate-change related reductions in

  3. Climate change impacts in Iran: assessing our current knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahimi, Jaber; Malekian, Arash; Khalili, Ali

    2018-02-01

    During recent years, various studies have focused on investigating the direct and indirect impacts of climate changes in Iran while the noteworthy fact is the achievement gained by these researches. Furthermore, what should be taken into consideration is whether these studies have been able to provide appropriate opportunities for improving further studies in this particular field or not. To address these questions, this study systematically reviewed and summarized the current available literature (n = 150) regarding the impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation in Iran to assess our current state of knowledge. The results revealed that while all studies discuss the probable changes in temperature and precipitation over the next decades, serious contradictions could be seen in their results; also, the general pattern of changes was different in most of the cases. This matter may have a significant effect on public beliefs in climate change, which can be a serious warning for the activists in this realm.

  4. Consideration of climate change on environmental impact assessment in Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro, E-mail: aenriquez@draba.org [Escuela de Doctorado, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, UNED, Draba Ingeniería y Consultoría Medioambiental, Cañada Nueva, 29, 28200 San Lorenzo de El Escorial (Spain); Martín-Aranda, Rosa M., E-mail: rmartin@ccia.uned.es [Departamento de Química Inorgánica y Química Técnica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, UNED, Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040, Madrid (Spain); Díaz-Sierra, Rubén, E-mail: sierra@dfmf.uned.es [Departamento de Física Matemática y de Fluidos, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, UNED, Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040, Madrid (Spain)

    2016-02-15

    Most of the projects subject to environmental impact assessment (EIA) are closely related to climate change, as they contribute to or are affected by it. The growing certainty about climate change and its impacts makes its consideration an essential part of the EIA process, as well as in strategic environmental assessment (SEA). This paper examines how climate change (CC) has been taken into account in EIA in Spain through the analysis of 1713 environmental records of decision (RODs) of projects submitted for EIA. In 2013 Spain approved one of the most advanced laws in terms of CC consideration in environmental assessment, although it had not yet accumulated extensive practice on the issue. This contrasts with the situation of countries like Canada or the USA, which have a significant body of experience without specific legal requirements. Only 14% of the RODs analysed included references to CC, and in more than half of the cases it was a mere citation. Thermal power plants, which are subject to specific GHG regulations, show the highest consideration, while transport infrastructures, which are important contributors to CC, show a very low consideration. Almost all the references are related to their contribution to CC, while consideration of the effects of CC is minimal. The increasingly common incorporation of CC into SEA, should not imply its exclusion from EIA, because both processes have different aims and uses. Including the obligation to consider CC in the EIA regulations is highly desirable, but probably not enough without other measures, such as practical guidance, training and motivational programmes for practitioners and evaluators. But even these actions cannot ensure effective and adequate assessments of CC. Probably more resources should be spent on creating greater awareness in all the agents involved in EIA. - Highlights: • We analyse how the climate change is considered in EIA in Spain. • Few projects seriously assess climate change.

  5. Consideration of climate change on environmental impact assessment in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro; Martín-Aranda, Rosa M.; Díaz-Sierra, Rubén

    2016-01-01

    Most of the projects subject to environmental impact assessment (EIA) are closely related to climate change, as they contribute to or are affected by it. The growing certainty about climate change and its impacts makes its consideration an essential part of the EIA process, as well as in strategic environmental assessment (SEA). This paper examines how climate change (CC) has been taken into account in EIA in Spain through the analysis of 1713 environmental records of decision (RODs) of projects submitted for EIA. In 2013 Spain approved one of the most advanced laws in terms of CC consideration in environmental assessment, although it had not yet accumulated extensive practice on the issue. This contrasts with the situation of countries like Canada or the USA, which have a significant body of experience without specific legal requirements. Only 14% of the RODs analysed included references to CC, and in more than half of the cases it was a mere citation. Thermal power plants, which are subject to specific GHG regulations, show the highest consideration, while transport infrastructures, which are important contributors to CC, show a very low consideration. Almost all the references are related to their contribution to CC, while consideration of the effects of CC is minimal. The increasingly common incorporation of CC into SEA, should not imply its exclusion from EIA, because both processes have different aims and uses. Including the obligation to consider CC in the EIA regulations is highly desirable, but probably not enough without other measures, such as practical guidance, training and motivational programmes for practitioners and evaluators. But even these actions cannot ensure effective and adequate assessments of CC. Probably more resources should be spent on creating greater awareness in all the agents involved in EIA. - Highlights: • We analyse how the climate change is considered in EIA in Spain. • Few projects seriously assess climate change.

  6. Air Pollution and Climate Change Health Impact Assessment. The ACHIA Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinney, P.L.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change may affect human health via interactions with air pollutants such as ozone and PM 2.5 . These air pollutants are linked to climate because they can be both affected by and have effects on climate. In coming decades, substantial, cost-effective improvements in public health may be achieved with well-planned strategies to mitigate climate impacts while also reducing health effects of ozone and PM 2.5 . Climate mitigation actions affect greenhouse pollutant emissions, including methane and black carbon, but also may affect other key air pollution precursors such as NOx, CO, and SOx. To better understand the potential of such strategies, studies are needed that assess possible future health impacts under alternative assumptions about future emissions and climate across multiple spatial scales. The overall objective of this project is to apply state of the art climate, air quality, and health modelling tools to assess future health impacts of ozone and PM 2.5 under different IPCCs scenario of climate change, focusing specifically on pollution-related health co-benefits which could be achieved under alternative climate mitigation pathways in the period 2030-2050. This question will be explored at three spatial scales: global, regional (Europe), and urban (Paris). ACHIA is comprised of an integrated set of four work packages: WP1. Global Climate and Air Pollution Impacts of Alternative Emissions Pathways; WP2. Climate and Air Quality at Regional and Urban Scales: Results for Europe and Paris; WP3. Health Impact Assessment; WP4. Dissemination, Evaluation, Management. ACHIA is designed to create an interdisciplinary approach to the impacts of climate change on health through air quality changes, and to start longer-term collaborations between communities. We expect the project to advance state of art across all WPs, with important implications for research groups around the world. A particular innovation of the project is the multi-scale aspect, i.e., the

  7. Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Forestry Development in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Forestry and forest ecosystem are highly sensitive to climate change.At present,studies about the responses of forests to climate change in China are more focused on physical influences of climate change.This paper firstly divided the key impact factors of climate change on forest and forestry developing into direct factors and indirect factors,and then made an assessment on climate change affecting future forestry development from the aspect of forest products and ecological services.On this basis,the adap...

  8. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozano, Olga M; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Arca, Bachisio; Alcasena, Fermin J; Monteiro, Antonio T; Finney, Mark A; Del Giudice, Liliana; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Spano, Donatella

    2017-10-01

    We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041-2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T; Tuomenvirta, H [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  10. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H.; Posch, M.

    1995-01-01

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  11. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  12. Assessment of the Health Impacts of Climate Change in Kiribati

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIver, Lachlan; Woodward, Alistair; Davies, Seren; Tibwe, Tebikau; Iddings, Steven

    2014-01-01

    Kiribati—a low-lying, resource-poor Pacific atoll nation—is one of the most vulnerable countries in the World to the impacts of climate change, including the likely detrimental effects on human health. We describe the preparation of a climate change and health adaptation plan for Kiribati carried out by the World Health Organization and the Kiribati Ministry of Health and Medical Services, including an assessment of risks to health, sources of vulnerability and suggestions for highest priority adaptation responses. This paper identifies advantages and disadvantages in the process that was followed, lays out a future direction of climate change and health adaptation work in Kiribati, and proposes lessons that may be applicable to other small, developing island nations as they prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change on health. PMID:24830452

  13. Assessing Land Use Change and Its Impact on Ecosystem Services in Northern Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunsanee Arunyawat

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Ecosystem services are highly vulnerable to a number of impacts due to the complex effects of human use of natural resources and subsequent land use change. Assessment of the impact of change in land use with respect to ecosystem services is necessary in order to implement appropriate land uses that enhance ecosystem services. This study analysed the impact of change in land use on ecosystem services using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST model to map and quantify a set of ecosystem services, namely sediment retention, water yield, carbon stock, and habitat quality, in northern Thailand, which has experienced substantial policy induced land use change. The study also assessed the changes in land use from 1989 to 2013 and their impact on overall ecosystem services using GIS. Increased rubber plantation cultivation and built-up areas resulting in reduced forest cover were the major changes found in land use in the area. The results of the study show a general decrease in ecosystem services for the study period in the watershed, in particular, a negative impact on ecosystem services was observed in agricultural areas. The study findings on spatial and temporal distribution of ecosystem services can help guide the development of appropriate land use options to enhance ecosystem services.

  14. Health impact assessment of climate change in Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, Deborah Imel

    2003-01-01

    Global climate change (GCC) may have serious and irreversible impacts. Improved methods are needed to predict and quantify health impacts, so that appropriate risk management strategies can be focused on vulnerable areas. The disability-adjusted life year (DALY) is proposed as an effective tool in environmental health impact assessment (HIA). The DALY accounts for years of life lost to premature death and/or morbidity. Both the DALY and the determinants-of-health approach are applied to HIA of GCC in Bangladesh. Based on historical data, a major storm event may result in approximately 290 DALY per 1000 population, including both deaths and injuries, compared to a current all-cause rate of about 280 per 1000 in the region. A more precise result would require a large input of data; however, this level of analysis may be sufficient to rank risks, and to motivate and target risk management efforts

  15. Climate change and plant health; Development of a conceptual frame-work for impact assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Breukers, M.L.H.

    2010-01-01

    This report presents a conceptual framework for systematic assessment of direct economic impacts of climate change on pest and disease management at the crop level. The framework evaluates and aggregates the effects, and subsequently impacts, of climate change on selected pests and diseases and

  16. Regional assessment of Climate change impacts in the Mediterranean: the CIRCE project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, A.

    2011-12-01

    The CIRCE project has developed for the first time an assessment of the climate change impacts in the Mediterranean area. The objectives of the project are: to predict and to quantify physical impacts of climate change in the Mediterranean area; to evaluate the consequences of climate change for the society and the economy of the populations located in the Mediterranean area; to develop an integrated approach to understand combined effects of climate change; and to identify adaptation and mitigation strategies in collaboration with regional stakeholders. The CIRCE Project, coordinated by the Instituto Nazionale di Geofisca e Vulcanologia, started on 1st April 2007 and ended in a policy conference in Rome on June 2011. CIRCE involves 64 partners from Europe, Middle East and North Africa working together to evaluate the best strategies of adaptation to the climate change in the Mediterranean basin. CIRCE wants to understand and to explain how climate will change in the Mediterranean area bringing together the natural sciences community and social community in a new integrated and comprehensive way. The project has investigated how global and Mediterranean climates interact, how the radiative properties of the atmosphere and the radiative fluxes vary, the interaction between cloudiness and aerosol, the modifications in the water cycle. Recent observed modifications in the climate variables and detected trends will be compared. The economic and social consequences of climate change are evaluated by analysing direct impacts on migration, tourism and energy markets together with indirect impacts on the economic system. CIRCE has produced results about the consequences on agriculture, forests and ecosystems, human health and air quality. The variability of extreme events in the future scenario and their impacts is also assessed. A rigorous common framework, including a set of quantitative indicators developed specifically for the Mediterranean environment was be developed

  17. Integrated Climate Change Impacts Assessment in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Meyer, R.; Anderson, M.; Bromirski, P. D.

    2014-12-01

    This paper summarizes lessons learned from an ongoing series of climate change assessments for California, conducted by the scientific community and State and local agencies. A series of three Assessments have considered vulnerability and adaptation issues for both managed and natural systems. California's vulnerability is many faceted, arising because of an exceptionally drought prone climate, open coast and large estuary exposure to sea level rise, sensitive ecosystems and complex human footprint and economy. Key elements of the assessments have been a common set of climate and sea-level rise scenarios, based upon IPCC GCM simulations. Regionalized and localized output from GCM projections was provided to research teams investigating water supply, agriculture, coastal resources, ecosystem services, forestry, public health, and energy demand and hydropower generation. The assessment results are helping to investigate the broad range of uncertainty that is inherent in climate projections, and users are becoming better equipped to process an envelope of potential climate and impacts. Some projections suggest that without changes in California's present fresh-water delivery system, serious water shortages would take place, but that technical solutions are possible. Under a warmer climate, wildfire vulnerability is heightened markedly in some areas--estimated increases in burned area by the end of the 21st Century exceed 100% of the historical area burned in much of the forested areas of Northern California Along California coast and estuaries, projected rise in mean sea level will accelerate flooding occurrences, prompting the need for better education and preparedness. Many policymakers and agency personnel in California are factoring in results from the assessments and recognize the need for a sustained assessment process. An ongoing challenge, of course, is to achieve more engagement with a broader community of decision makers, and notably with the private sector.

  18. Uncertainties in assessing climate change impacts on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf

    2013-04-01

    There is substantial evidence in historical and recent observations that the Mediterranean and neighboring regions are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Numerous climate projections, stemming from ensembles of global and regional climate models, agree on severe changes in the climate forcing which are likely to exacerbate subsequent ecological, economic and social impacts. Many of these causal connections are closely linked to the general expectation that water availability will decline in the already water-stressed basins of Africa, the Mediterranean region and the Near East, even though considerable regional variances must be expected. Consequently, climate change impacts on water resources are raising concerns regarding their possible management and security implications. Decreasing access to water resources and other related factors could be a cause or a 'multiplier' of tensions within and between countries. Whether security threats arise from climate impacts or options for cooperation evolve does not depend only on the severity of the impacts themselves, but on social, economic, and institutional vulnerabilities or resilience as well as factors that influence local, national and international relations. However, an assessment of vulnerability and risks hinges on natural, socio-economic, and political conditions and responses, all of which are uncertain. Multidisciplinary research is needed to tackle the multi-facet complexity of climate change impacts on water resources in the Mediterranean and neighboring countries. This is particularly true in a region of overall data scarcity and poor data management and exchange structures. The current potential to develop appropriate regional adaptation measures towards climate change impacts suffers heavily from large uncertainties. These spread along a long chain of components, starting from the definition of emission scenarios to global and regional climate modeling to impact models and a

  19. Changes in the impact assessment family 2003-2014 : Implications for considering achievements, gaps and future directions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vanclay, Francis

    2015-01-01

    Over 150 forms of impact assessment can be identified using Google searches, with several new forms appearing since 2003. Since then, the popularity of the various members of the impact assessment family has changed, partly in response to legislative and regulatory changes, and general trends in

  20. Adaptation strategies for health impacts of climate change in Western Australia: Application of a Health Impact Assessment framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spickett, Jeffery T.; Brown, Helen L.; Katscherian, Dianne

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing the globe and there is substantial evidence that this will result in a number of health impacts, regardless of the level of greenhouse gas mitigation. It is therefore apparent that a combined approach of mitigation and adaptation will be required to protect public health. While the importance of mitigation is recognised, this project focused on the role of adaptation strategies in addressing the potential health impacts of climate change. The nature and magnitude of these health impacts will be determined by a number of parameters that are dependent upon the location. Firstly, climate change will vary between regions. Secondly, the characteristics of each region in terms of population and the ability to adapt to changes will greatly influence the extent of the health impacts that are experienced now and into the future. Effective adaptation measures therefore need to be developed with these differences in mind. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used to consider the implications of climate change on the health of the population of Western Australia (WA) and to develop a range of adaptive responses suited to WA. A broad range of stakeholders participated in the HIA process, providing informed input into developing an understanding of the potential health impacts and potential adaptation strategies from a diverse sector perspective. Potential health impacts were identified in relation to climate change predictions in WA in the year 2030. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed using a qualitative process that considered the consequences and the likelihood of the health impact occurring. Adaptations were then developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by Government for future decision making. The periodic application of a HIA framework is seen as an ideal tool to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to

  1. Cost Analysis of Water Transport for Climate Change Impact Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szaleniec, V.; Buytaert, W.

    2012-04-01

    It is expected that climate change will have a strong impact on water resources worldwide. Many studies exist that couple the output of global climate models with hydrological models to assess the impact of climate change on physical water availability. However, the water resources topology of many regions and especially that of cities can be very complex. Changes in physical water availability do therefore not translate easily into impacts on water resources for cities. This is especially the case for cities with a complex water supply topology, for instance because of geographical barriers, strong gradients in precipitation patterns, or competing water uses. In this study we explore the use of cost maps to enable the inclusion of water supply topologies in climate change impact studies. We use the city of Lima as a case study. Lima is the second largest desert city in the world. Although Peru as a whole has no water shortage, extreme gradients exist. Most of the economic activities including the city of Lima are located in the coastal desert. This region is geographically disconnected from the wet Amazon basin because of the Andes mountain range. Hence, water supply is precarious, provided by a complex combination of high mountain ecosystems including wetlands and glaciers, as well as groundwater aquifers depending on recharge from the mountains. We investigate the feasibility and costs of different water abstraction scenarios and the impact of climate change using cost functions for different resources. The option of building inter basins tunnels across the Andes is compared to the costs of desalinating seawater from the Pacific Ocean under different climate change scenarios and population growth scenarios. This approach yields recommendations for the most cost-effective options for the future.

  2. Quantifying the impact of model inaccuracy in climate change impact assessment studies using an agro-hydrological model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Droogers, P.; Loon, van A.F.; Immerzeel, W.W.

    2008-01-01

    Numerical simulation models are frequently applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrology and agriculture. A common hypothesis is that unavoidable model errors are reflected in the reference situation as well as in the climate change situation so that by comparing reference to scenario

  3. Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

    2013-01-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

  4. Impact assessment and coastal climate change adaptation in a local transdisciplinary perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Broge, N. H.; Knudsen, Per

    , private and public institutions, and the local communities provides: understanding of the immediate and potential future challenges; appreciation of different stakeholder motives, business agendas, legislative constraints etc., and common focus on how to cost-efficiently adapt to and manage impacts......From an applied point of view, the authors present and discuss inter- and transdisciplinary approaches to assess and deal with natural coastal hazards and climate change impacts. The construction of a shared working platform for knowledge integration across levels of governance and between research...... of climate change. The platform is dynamically updated with additional data and knowledge, e.g. from climate change evidence, or, by provision of updated regional models of future sea level rise. In order to integrate natural hazards and impact development over time, models on hydrology, geology...

  5. A New High Resolution Climate Dataset for Climate Change Impacts Assessments in New England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komurcu, M.; Huber, M.

    2016-12-01

    Assessing regional impacts of climate change (such as changes in extreme events, land surface hydrology, water resources, energy, ecosystems and economy) requires much higher resolution climate variables than those available from global model projections. While it is possible to run global models in higher resolution, the high computational cost associated with these simulations prevent their use in such manner. To alleviate this problem, dynamical downscaling offers a method to deliver higher resolution climate variables. As part of an NSF EPSCoR funded interdisciplinary effort to assess climate change impacts on New Hampshire ecosystems, hydrology and economy (the New Hampshire Ecosystems and Society project), we create a unique high-resolution climate dataset for New England. We dynamically downscale global model projections under a high impact emissions scenario using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with three nested grids of 27, 9 and 3 km horizontal resolution with the highest resolution innermost grid focusing over New England. We prefer dynamical downscaling over other methods such as statistical downscaling because it employs physical equations to progressively simulate climate variables as atmospheric processes interact with surface processes, emissions, radiation, clouds, precipitation and other model components, hence eliminates fix relationships between variables. In addition to simulating mean changes in regional climate, dynamical downscaling also allows for the simulation of climate extremes that significantly alter climate change impacts. We simulate three time slices: 2006-2015, 2040-2060 and 2080-2100. This new high-resolution climate dataset (with more than 200 variables saved in hourly (six hourly) intervals for the highest resolution domain (outer two domains)) along with model input and restart files used in our WRF simulations will be publicly available for use to the broader scientific community to support in-depth climate

  6. Methods for Assessing Uncertainties in Climate Change, Impacts and Responses (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, M. R.; Swart, R.

    2009-12-01

    Assessing the scientific uncertainties or confidence levels for the many different aspects of climate change is particularly important because of the seriousness of potential impacts and the magnitude of economic and political responses that are needed to mitigate climate change effectively. This has made the treatment of uncertainty and confidence a key feature in the assessments carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Because climate change is very much a cross-disciplinary area of science, adequately dealing with uncertainties requires recognition of their wide range and different perspectives on assessing and communicating those uncertainties. The structural differences that exist across disciplines are often embedded deeply in the corresponding literature that is used as the basis for an IPCC assessment. The assessment of climate change science by the IPCC has from its outset tried to report the levels of confidence and uncertainty in the degree of understanding in both the underlying multi-disciplinary science and in projections for future climate. The growing recognition of the seriousness of this led to the formation of a detailed approach for consistent treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (TAR) [Moss and Schneider, 2000]. However, in completing the TAR there remained some systematic differences between the disciplines raising concerns about the level of consistency. So further consideration of a systematic approach to uncertainties was undertaken for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The basis for the approach used in the AR4 was developed at an expert meeting of scientists representing many different disciplines. This led to the introduction of a broader way of addressing uncertainties in the AR4 [Manning et al., 2004] which was further refined by lengthy discussions among many IPCC Lead Authors, for over a year, resulting in a short summary of a standard approach to be followed for that

  7. Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofaer, Helen R; Barsugli, Joseph J; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Abatzoglou, John T; Talbert, Marian K; Miller, Brian W; Morisette, Jeffrey T

    2017-07-01

    Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive - such as means or extremes - can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the 'model space' approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro, E-mail: aenriquez@draba.org [Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED)/Draba Ingeniería y Consultoría Medioambiental, Cañada Nueva, 13, 28200 San Lorenzo de El Escorial (Spain); Díaz-Sierra, Rubén, E-mail: sierra@dfmf.uned.es [Departamento de Física Matemática y de Fluidos, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Martín-Aranda, Rosa M., E-mail: rmartin@ccia.uned.es [Departamento de Química Inorgánica y Química Técnica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Santos, Maria J., E-mail: M.J.FerreiraDosSantos@uu.nl [Department of Innovation, Environmental and Energy Sciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3572 TC Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2017-05-15

    Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship between climate change adaptation and environmental impact assessment, and the degree to which environmental impacts are included in climate change adaptation theory and practice. Our literature review showed that technical, social and economic perspectives on climate change adaptation receive much more attention than the environmental perspective. The scarce interest on the environmental impacts of adaptation may be attributed to (1) an excessive sectoral approach, with dominance of non-environmental perspectives, (2) greater interest in mitigation and direct climate change impacts rather than in adaptation impacts, (3) a tendency to consider adaptation as inherently good, and (4) subjective/preconceived notions on which measures are good or bad, without a comprehensive assessment. Environmental Assessment (EA) has a long established history as an effective tool to include environment into decision-making, although it does not yet guarantee a proper assessment of adaptation, because it is still possible to postpone or even circumvent the processes of assessing the impacts of climate adaptation. Our results suggest that there is a need to address adaptation proactively by including it in EA, to update current policy frameworks, and to demand robust and reliable evaluation of alternatives. Only through the full EA of adaptation measures can we improve our understanding of the primary and secondary impacts of adaptation to global environmental change. - Highlights: • Climate change adaptation may have undesirable environmental impacts. • The impacts of adaptation are yet poorly analysed in the literature. • There is an excessive sectoral approach to adaptation, mainly

  9. Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro; Díaz-Sierra, Rubén; Martín-Aranda, Rosa M.; Santos, Maria J.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship between climate change adaptation and environmental impact assessment, and the degree to which environmental impacts are included in climate change adaptation theory and practice. Our literature review showed that technical, social and economic perspectives on climate change adaptation receive much more attention than the environmental perspective. The scarce interest on the environmental impacts of adaptation may be attributed to (1) an excessive sectoral approach, with dominance of non-environmental perspectives, (2) greater interest in mitigation and direct climate change impacts rather than in adaptation impacts, (3) a tendency to consider adaptation as inherently good, and (4) subjective/preconceived notions on which measures are good or bad, without a comprehensive assessment. Environmental Assessment (EA) has a long established history as an effective tool to include environment into decision-making, although it does not yet guarantee a proper assessment of adaptation, because it is still possible to postpone or even circumvent the processes of assessing the impacts of climate adaptation. Our results suggest that there is a need to address adaptation proactively by including it in EA, to update current policy frameworks, and to demand robust and reliable evaluation of alternatives. Only through the full EA of adaptation measures can we improve our understanding of the primary and secondary impacts of adaptation to global environmental change. - Highlights: • Climate change adaptation may have undesirable environmental impacts. • The impacts of adaptation are yet poorly analysed in the literature. • There is an excessive sectoral approach to adaptation, mainly

  10. Climate change impact assessment in Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part II: a spatially resolved regional risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Rizzi, J; Zabeo, A; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impact assessment on water resources has received high international attention over the last two decades, due to the observed global warming and its consequences at the global to local scale. In particular, climate-related risks for groundwater and related ecosystems pose a great concern to scientists and water authorities involved in the protection of these valuable resources. The close link of global warming with water cycle alterations encourages research to deepen current knowledge on relationships between climate trends and status of water systems, and to develop predictive tools for their sustainable management, copying with key principles of EU water policy. Within the European project Life+ TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groundwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change), a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed in order to identify impacts from climate change on groundwater and associated ecosystems (e.g. surface waters, agricultural areas, natural environments) and to rank areas and receptors at risk in the high and middle Veneto and Friuli Plain (Italy). Based on an integrated analysis of impacts, vulnerability and risks linked to climate change at the regional scale, a RRA framework complying with the Sources-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) approach was defined. Relevant impacts on groundwater and surface waters (i.e. groundwater level variations, changes in nitrate infiltration processes, changes in water availability for irrigation) were selected and analyzed through hazard scenario, exposure, susceptibility and risk assessment. The RRA methodology used hazard scenarios constructed through global and high resolution model simulations for the 2071-2100 period, according to IPCC A1B emission scenario in order to produce useful indications for future risk prioritization and to support the addressing of adaptation measures, primarily Managed Artificial Recharge (MAR) techniques. Relevant

  11. Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2010 - part 1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - integrated assessment modeling and valuation.

  12. Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2011 - part 2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - estimating impacts and valuing damages on a sectoral basis.

  13. Evaluating confidence in the impact of regulatory nutrient reduction and assessing the competing impact of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irby, I.; Friedrichs, M. A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Human impacts on the Chesapeake Bay through increased nutrient run-off as a result of land-use change, urbanization, and industrialization, have resulted in a degradation of water quality over the last half-century. These direct impacts, compounded with human-induced climate changes such as warming, rising sea level, and changes in precipitation, have elevated the conversation surrounding the future of the Bay's water quality. As a result, in 2010, a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) was established for the Chesapeake Bay that limited nutrient and sediment input in an effort to increase dissolved oxygen. This research utilizes a multiple model approach to evaluate confidence in the estuarine water quality modeling portion of the TMDL. One of the models is then used to assess the potential impact climate change may have on the success of currently mandated nutrient reduction levels in 2050. Results demonstrate that although the models examined differ structurally and in biogeochemical complexity, they project a similar attainment of regulatory water quality standards after nutrient reduction, while also establishing that meeting water quality standards is relatively independent of hydrologic conditions. By developing a Confidence Index, this research identifies the locations and causes of greatest uncertainty in modeled projections of water quality. Although there are specific locations and times where the models disagree, this research lends an increased degree of confidence in the appropriateness of the TMDL levels and in the general impact nutrient reductions will have on Chesapeake Bay water quality under current environmental conditions. However, when examining the potential impacts of climate change, this research shows that the combined impacts of increasing temperature, sea level, and river flow negatively affect dissolved oxygen throughout the Chesapeake Bay and impact progress towards meeting the water quality standards associated with the TMDL with

  14. A probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts on yield and nitrogen leaching from winter wheat in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Børgesen, Christen Duus; Olesen, Jørgen E

    2011-01-01

    Climate change will impact agricultural production both directly and indirectly, but uncertainties related to likely impacts constrain current political decision making on adaptation. This analysis focuses on a methodology for applying probabilistic climate change projections to assess modelled...... the importance of including soil information for regional studies of climate change impacts on cropping systems....

  15. Multi-criteria objective based climate change impact assessment for multi-purpose multi-reservoir systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Ruben; Schütze, Niels

    2014-05-01

    Water resources systems with reservoirs are expected to be sensitive to climate change. Assessment studies that analyze the impact of climate change on the performance of reservoirs can be divided in two groups: (1) Studies that simulate the operation under projected inflows with the current set of operational rules. Due to non adapted operational rules the future performance of these reservoirs can be underestimated and the impact overestimated. (2) Studies that optimize the operational rules for best adaption of the system to the projected conditions before the assessment of the impact. The latter allows for estimating more realistically future performance and adaption strategies based on new operation rules are available if required. Multi-purpose reservoirs serve various, often conflicting functions. If all functions cannot be served simultaneously at a maximum level, an effective compromise between multiple objectives of the reservoir operation has to be provided. Yet under climate change the historically preferenced compromise may no longer be the most suitable compromise in the future. Therefore a multi-objective based climate change impact assessment approach for multi-purpose multi-reservoir systems is proposed in the study. Projected inflows are provided in a first step using a physically based rainfall-runoff model. In a second step, a time series model is applied to generate long-term inflow time series. Finally, the long-term inflow series are used as driving variables for a simulation-based multi-objective optimization of the reservoir system in order to derive optimal operation rules. As a result, the adapted Pareto-optimal set of diverse best compromise solutions can be presented to the decision maker in order to assist him in assessing climate change adaption measures with respect to the future performance of the multi-purpose reservoir system. The approach is tested on a multi-purpose multi-reservoir system in a mountainous catchment in Germany. A

  16. Motivators and barriers to incorporating climate change-related health risks in environmental health impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Lyle R; Alderman, Katarzyna; Connell, Des; Tong, Shilu

    2013-03-22

    Climate change presents risks to health that must be addressed by both decision-makers and public health researchers. Within the application of Environmental Health Impact Assessment (EHIA), there have been few attempts to incorporate climate change-related health risks as an input to the framework. This study used a focus group design to examine the perceptions of government, industry and academic specialists about the suitability of assessing the health consequences of climate change within an EHIA framework. Practitioners expressed concern over a number of factors relating to the current EHIA methodology and the inclusion of climate change-related health risks. These concerns related to the broad scope of issues that would need to be considered, problems with identifying appropriate health indicators, the lack of relevant qualitative information that is currently incorporated in assessment and persistent issues surrounding stakeholder participation. It was suggested that improvements are needed in data collection processes, particularly in terms of adequate communication between environmental and health practitioners. Concerns were raised surrounding data privacy and usage, and how these could impact on the assessment process. These findings may provide guidance for government and industry bodies to improve the assessment of climate change-related health risks.

  17. Global guidance on environmental life cycle impact assessment indicators: impacts of climate change, fine particulate matter formation, water consumption and land use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jolliet, Olivier; Antón, Assumpció; Boulay, Anne-Marie

    2018-01-01

    of water consumption on human health assesses the DALYs from malnutrition caused by lack of water for irrigated food production. Land use impacts: CFs representing global potential species loss from land use are proposed as interim recommendation suitable to assess biodiversity loss due to land use......Purpose: Guidance is needed on best-suited indicators to quantify and monitor the man-made impacts on human health, biodiversity and resources. Therefore, the UNEP-SETAC Life Cycle Initiative initiated a global consensus process to agree on an updated overall life cycle impact assessment (LCIA...... are recommended: (a) The global warming potential 100 years (GWP 100) represents shorter term impacts associated with rate of change and adaptation capacity, and (b) the global temperature change potential 100 years (GTP 100) characterizes the century-scale long term impacts, both including climate-carbon cycle...

  18. Choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snover, Amy K; Mantua, Nathan J; Littell, Jeremy S; Alexander, Michael A; McClure, Michelle M; Nye, Janet

    2013-12-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment. Selección y Uso de Escenarios de Cambio Climático para Estudios de Impacto Ecológico y Decisiones de Conservación. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  19. Assessing the impact of global changes on the surface water resources of Southwestern Nigeria

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ayeni, AO

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the relative impact of land use, land cover and climate change (LULCC) on basin runoff is necessary in assessing basin water stress. This assessment requires long-term observed rainfall time series and land-use/land-cover (LULC...

  20. Assessing the impact of future climate change on groundwater recharge in Galicia-Costa, Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raposo, Juan Ramón; Dafonte, Jorge; Molinero, Jorge

    2013-03-01

    Climate change can impact the hydrological processes of a watershed and may result in problems with future water supply for large sections of the population. Results from the FP5 PRUDENCE project suggest significant changes in temperature and precipitation over Europe. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in the hydrological district of Galicia-Costa, Spain. Climate projections from two general circulation models and eight different regional climate models were used for the assessment and two climate-change scenarios were evaluated. Calibration and validation of the model were performed using a daily time-step in four representative catchments in the district. The effects on modeled mean annual groundwater recharge are small, partly due to the greater stomatal efficiency of plants in response to increased CO2 concentration. However, climate change strongly influences the temporal variability of modeled groundwater recharge. Recharge may concentrate in the winter season and dramatically decrease in the summer-autumn season. As a result, the dry-season duration may be increased on average by almost 30 % for the A2 emission scenario, exacerbating the current problems in water supply.

  1. A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Heinke

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

  2. Motivators and Barriers to Incorporating Climate Change-Related Health Risks in Environmental Health Impact Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shilu Tong

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change presents risks to health that must be addressed by both decision-makers and public health researchers. Within the application of Environmental Health Impact Assessment (EHIA, there have been few attempts to incorporate climate change-related health risks as an input to the framework. This study used a focus group design to examine the perceptions of government, industry and academic specialists about the suitability of assessing the health consequences of climate change within an EHIA framework. Practitioners expressed concern over a number of factors relating to the current EHIA methodology and the inclusion of climate change-related health risks. These concerns related to the broad scope of issues that would need to be considered, problems with identifying appropriate health indicators, the lack of relevant qualitative information that is currently incorporated in assessment and persistent issues surrounding stakeholder participation. It was suggested that improvements are needed in data collection processes, particularly in terms of adequate communication between environmental and health practitioners. Concerns were raised surrounding data privacy and usage, and how these could impact on the assessment process. These findings may provide guidance for government and industry bodies to improve the assessment of climate change-related health risks.

  3. Is Environmental Impact Assessment fulfilling its potential?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2014-01-01

    fuel with CO2-neutral energy sources. A variety of these projects are subject to environmental impact assessment (EIA), which raises the following questions: What role does an impact assessment play? When is the project environmentally friendly? How are climate change-related impacts assessed......One of the topics receiving much attention in recent years is climate change and the potential of its integration in impact assessment, both in terms of achieving mitigation and adaptation. Renewable energy projects are part of the efforts to mitigate climate change, replacing the use of fossil...... adaptation is absent. Also, the results show an emphasis on positive impacts in the reports, and in a few cases discussions of enhancements. Identification and assessment of negative climate change impacts are less apparent. This leads to a discussion of the results in the light of the purpose of EIA....

  4. An integrated assessment of climate change impacts for Athens- relevance to stakeholders and policy makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannakopoulos, C.; Hatzaki, M.; Kostopoulou, E.; Varotsos, K.

    2010-09-01

    Analysing climate change and its impact needs a production of relevant elements for policy making that can be very different from the parameters considered by climate experts. In the framework of EU project CIRCE, a more realistic approach to match stakeholders and policy-makers demands is attempted. For this reason, within CIRCE selected case studies have been chosen that will provide assessments that can be integrated in practical decision making. In this work, an integrated assessment of climate change impacts on several sectors for the urban site of Athens in Greece is presented. The Athens urban case study has been chosen since it provides excellent opportunities for using an integrated approach across multiple temporal and spatial scales and sectors. In the spatial dimension, work extends from the inner city boundaries to the surrounding mountains and forests. In the temporal dimension, research ranges from the current observed time period (using available meteorological and sector data) to future time periods using data from several climate change projections. In addition, a multi-sector approach to climate change impacts is adopted. Impacts sectors covered range from direct climate impacts on natural ecosystems (such as flash floods, air pollution and forest fire risk) to indirect impacts resulting from combined climate-social-economic linkages (such as energy demand, tourism and health). Discussion of impact sector risks and adaptation measures are also exploited. Case-study work on impact sector risk to climate change is of particular interest to relevant policy makers and stakeholders, communication with who is ensured through a series of briefing notes and information sheets and through regional workshops.

  5. Assessing Ecological Impacts According to Land Use Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, S.; Lee, D. K.; Jeong, W.; Jeong, S. G.; Jin, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Land use patterns have changed by human activities, and it has affected the structure and dynamics of ecosystems. In particular, the conversion of forests into other land use has caused environmental degradation and loss of biodiversity. The evaluation of species and their habitat can be preferentially considered to prevent or minimize the adverse effects of land use change. The objective of study is identifying the impacts of environmental conditions on forest ecosystems by comparing ecological changes with time series spatial data. Species distribution models were developed for diverse species with presence data and time-series environmental variables, which allowed comparison of the habitat suitability and connectivity. Habitat suitability and connectivity were used to estimate impacts of forest ecosystems due to land use change. Our result suggested that the size and degree of ecological impacts are were different depending on the properties of land use change. The elements and species were greatly affected by the land use change according to the results. This study suggested that a methodology for measuring the interference of land use change in species habitat and connectivity. Furthermore, it will help to conserve and manage forest by identifying priority conservation areas with influence factor and scale.

  6. Motivators and Barriers to Incorporating Climate Change-Related Health Risks in Environmental Health Impact Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Turner, Lyle R.; Alderman, Katarzyna; Connell, Des; Tong, Shilu

    2013-01-01

    Climate change presents risks to health that must be addressed by both decision-makers and public health researchers. Within the application of Environmental Health Impact Assessment (EHIA), there have been few attempts to incorporate climate change-related health risks as an input to the framework. This study used a focus group design to examine the perceptions of government, industry and academic specialists about the suitability of assessing the health consequences of climate change within...

  7. Assessment of winter wheat loss risk impacted by climate change from 1982 to 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Xin

    2017-04-01

    The world's farmers will face increasing pressure to grow more food on less land in succeeding few decades, because it seems that the continuous population growth and agricultural products turning to biofuels would extend several decades into the future. Therefore, the increased demand for food supply worldwide calls for improved accuracy of crop productivity estimation and assessment of grain production loss risk. Extensive studies have been launched to evaluate the impacts of climate change on crop production based on various crop models drove with global or regional climate model (GCM/RCM) output. However, assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture productivity is plagued with uncertainties of the future climate change scenarios and complexity of crop model. Therefore, given uncertain climate conditions and a lack of model parameters, these methods are strictly limited in application. In this study, an empirical assessment approach for crop loss risk impacted by water stress has been established and used to evaluate the risk of winter wheat loss in China, United States, Germany, France and United Kingdom. The average value of winter wheat loss risk impacted by water stress for the three countries of Europe is about -931kg/ha, which is obviously higher in contrast with that in China (-570kg/ha) and in United States (-367kg/ha). Our study has important implications for further application of operational assessment of crop loss risk at a country or region scale. Future studies should focus on using higher spatial resolution remote sensing data, combining actual evapo-transpiration to estimate water stress, improving the method for downscaling of statistic crop yield data, and establishing much more rational and elaborate zoning method.

  8. A framework for the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts on water-related activities at the basin scale

    OpenAIRE

    Anghileri, D.; Pianosi, F.; Soncini-Sessa, R.

    2011-01-01

    While quantitative assessment of the climate change impact on hydrology at the basin scale is quite addressed in the literature, extension of quantitative analysis to impact on the ecological, economic and social sphere is still limited, although well recognized as a key issue to support water resource planning and promote public participation. In this paper we propose a framework for assessing climate change impact on water-related activities at the basin scale. The specific features of our ...

  9. Enhanced science-stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsson, Anna Maria; Anderbrant, Olle; Holmer, Jennie

    2015-01-01

    In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused...... by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science–stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact...... a discussion among the science–stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models....

  10. The AgMIP Wheat Pilot: A multi-model approach for climate change impact assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asseng, S.

    2012-12-01

    Asseng S., F. Ewert, C. Rosenzweig, J.W. Jones, J.L. Hatfield, A. Ruane, K.J. Boote, P. Thorburn, R.P. Rötter, D. Cammarano, N. Brisson, B. Basso, P. Martre, D. Ripoche, P. Bertuzzi, P. Steduto, L. Heng, M.A. Semenov, P. Stratonovitch, C. Stockle, G. O'Leary, P.K. Aggarwal, S. Naresh Kumar, C. Izaurralde, J.W. White, L.A. Hunt, R. Grant, K.C. Kersebaum, T. Palosuo, J. Hooker, T. Osborne, J. Wolf, I. Supit, J.E. Olesen, J. Doltra, C. Nendel, S. Gayler, J. Ingwersen, E. Priesack, T. Streck, F. Tao, C. Müller, K. Waha, R. Goldberg, C. Angulo, I. Shcherbak, C. Biernath, D. Wallach, M. Travasso, A. Challinor. Abstract: Crop simulation models have been used to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture. These assessments are often carried out with a single model in a limited number of environments and without determining the uncertainty of simulated impacts. There is a need for a coordinated effort bringing together multiple modeling teams which has been recognized by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; www.agmip.org). AgMIP aims to provide more robust estimates of climate impacts on crop yields and agricultural trade, including estimates of associated uncertainties. Here, we present the AgMIP Wheat Pilot Study, the most comprehensive model intercomparison of the response of wheat crops to climate change to date, including 27 wheat models. Crop model uncertainties in assessing climate change impacts are explored and compared with field experimental and Global Circulation Model uncertainties. Causes of impact uncertainties and ways to reduce these are discussed.

  11. Impact assessment of coastal hazards due to future changes of tropical cyclones in the North Pacific Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuhito Mori

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones generate severe hazards in the middle latitudes. A brief review and applications of dynamical and statistical downscaling of tropical cyclone (TC are described targeting extreme storm surge and storm wave hazard assessment. First, a review of the current understanding of the changes in the characteristics of TCs in the past and in the future is shown. Then, a review and ongoing research about impact assessment of tropical cyclones both dynamical downscaling and statistical model are described for Typhoon Vera in 1959 and Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Finally, several examples of impact assessment of storm surge and extreme wave changes are presented. Changes in both TC intensity and track are linked to future changes in extreme storm surge and wave climate in middle latitude.

  12. Climate change impacts on ecosystems and ecosystem services in the United States: Process and prospects for sustained assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Nancy B.; Groffman, Peter M; Staudinger, Michelle D.; Tallis, Heather

    2016-01-01

    The third United States National Climate Assessment emphasized an evaluation of not just the impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, but also the impacts of climate change on the benefits that people derive from nature, known as ecosystem services. The ecosystems, biodiversity, and ecosystem services component of the assessment largely drew upon the findings of a transdisciplinary workshop aimed at developing technical input for the assessment, involving participants from diverse sectors. A small author team distilled and synthesized this and hundreds of other technical input to develop the key findings of the assessment. The process of developing and ranking key findings hinged on identifying impacts that had particular, demonstrable effects on the U.S. public via changes in national ecosystem services. Findings showed that ecosystem services are threatened by the impacts of climate change on water supplies, species distributions and phenology, as well as multiple assaults on ecosystem integrity that, when compounded by climate change, reduce the capacity of ecosystems to buffer against extreme events. As ecosystems change, such benefits as water sustainability and protection from storms that are afforded by intact ecosystems are projected to decline across the continent due to climate change. An ongoing, sustained assessment that focuses on the co-production of actionable climate science will allow scientists from a range of disciplines to ascertain the capability of their forecasting models to project environmental and ecological change and link it to ecosystem services; additionally, an iterative process of evaluation, development of management strategies, monitoring, and reevaluation will increase the applicability and usability of the science by the U.S. public.

  13. Climate change and forests: Impacts and adaption. A regional assessment for the Western Ghats, India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ravindranath, N H; Sukumar, R [Indian Inst. of Science, Bangalore (India). Centre for Ecological Sciences; Deshingkar, P [Stockholm Environment Inst. (Sweden)

    1998-12-31

    Potential climate change over the next 50 to 100 years could have major impacts on tropical forests. Forests, particularly in the tropics, are subjected to anthropogenic pressures leading to degradation and loss of forest ecosystems. Given the significant dependence of local people and economies on forests in tropical and temperate countries, there is a need to assess the possible impacts of climate change and to develop adaption measures. The diversity of forest types in the Western Ghats ranges from wet evergreen and deciduous forest to dry thorn and montane forests with a wide range of annual rainfall regimes (from less than 65 cm to over 300 cm). The study was conducted in two regions of the Western Ghats; the Uttara Kannada district and the Nilgiris. Climate change projections for 2020 and 2050 were used in assessing the possible impacts on forests. In general, the `most likely` projections of climate change were an increase in mean temperature in the range of 0.3-1.0 deg C and an increase in precipitation of 3-8% over the study regions by the year 2050. The `worst case` scenario was an increase in temperature of 1 deg C and a decrease in precipitation by 8% by 2050. To assess the vegetational responses to climate change, a simple model based on present-day correlations between climatic (mean annual temperature and precipitation) and vegetation types for these regions was developed. Likely changes in the areas under different forest types were assessed for `moderate climate` sensitivity and central scaling factor (referred to as the `most likely scenario`) for the years 2020 and 2050, and `high climate` sensitivity and a lower scaling factor (the `worst case scenario`) for 2050 90 refs, 15 figs, 15 tabs

  14. Climate change and forests: Impacts and adaption. A regional assessment for the Western Ghats, India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ravindranath, N.H.; Sukumar, R. [Indian Inst. of Science, Bangalore (India). Centre for Ecological Sciences; Deshingkar, P. [Stockholm Environment Inst. (Sweden)

    1997-12-31

    Potential climate change over the next 50 to 100 years could have major impacts on tropical forests. Forests, particularly in the tropics, are subjected to anthropogenic pressures leading to degradation and loss of forest ecosystems. Given the significant dependence of local people and economies on forests in tropical and temperate countries, there is a need to assess the possible impacts of climate change and to develop adaption measures. The diversity of forest types in the Western Ghats ranges from wet evergreen and deciduous forest to dry thorn and montane forests with a wide range of annual rainfall regimes (from less than 65 cm to over 300 cm). The study was conducted in two regions of the Western Ghats; the Uttara Kannada district and the Nilgiris. Climate change projections for 2020 and 2050 were used in assessing the possible impacts on forests. In general, the `most likely` projections of climate change were an increase in mean temperature in the range of 0.3-1.0 deg C and an increase in precipitation of 3-8% over the study regions by the year 2050. The `worst case` scenario was an increase in temperature of 1 deg C and a decrease in precipitation by 8% by 2050. To assess the vegetational responses to climate change, a simple model based on present-day correlations between climatic (mean annual temperature and precipitation) and vegetation types for these regions was developed. Likely changes in the areas under different forest types were assessed for `moderate climate` sensitivity and central scaling factor (referred to as the `most likely scenario`) for the years 2020 and 2050, and `high climate` sensitivity and a lower scaling factor (the `worst case scenario`) for 2050 90 refs, 15 figs, 15 tabs

  15. How reliably can climate change and mitigation policy impacts on electric utilities be assessed?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Kopp, R.J.; Palmer, K.; De Witt, D.

    1993-01-01

    Numerous mechanisms link climate change and electric utilities. Electricity generation releases radiatively active trace substances (RATS). Significant changes in atmospheric concentration of RATS can lead to a change in regional and global climate regimes. Mitigation action designed to prevent or limit climate change is possible through curbing emissions. Climate change and related mitigation actions impact on electric utilities. Foresight in electric utility planning requires reliable predictions of how the utilities may be affected in the decades ahead. In this paper the impacts of climate change and mitigation policies are noted, and our ability to assess these is reviewed. To this end a suite of models exploring supply and demand questions have been developed. The overall conclusion of the study is that the demand-side uncertainties dominate other unknowns and need to be better characterized and understood. (author)

  16. Reviewing Bayesian Networks potentials for climate change impacts assessment and management: A multi-risk perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperotto, Anna; Molina, José-Luis; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2017-11-01

    The evaluation and management of climate change impacts on natural and human systems required the adoption of a multi-risk perspective in which the effect of multiple stressors, processes and interconnections are simultaneously modelled. Despite Bayesian Networks (BNs) are popular integrated modelling tools to deal with uncertain and complex domains, their application in the context of climate change still represent a limited explored field. The paper, drawing on the review of existing applications in the field of environmental management, discusses the potential and limitation of applying BNs to improve current climate change risk assessment procedures. Main potentials include the advantage to consider multiple stressors and endpoints in the same framework, their flexibility in dealing and communicate with the uncertainty of climate projections and the opportunity to perform scenario analysis. Some limitations (i.e. representation of temporal and spatial dynamics, quantitative validation), however, should be overcome to boost BNs use in climate change impacts assessment and management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Deducing Climatic Elasticity to Assess Projected Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow Change across China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jianyu; Zhang, Qiang; Zhang, Yongqiang; Chen, Xi; Li, Jianfeng; Aryal, Santosh K.

    2017-10-01

    Climatic elasticity has been widely applied to assess streamflow responses to climate changes. To fully assess impacts of climate under global warming on streamflow and reduce the error and uncertainty from various control variables, we develop a four-parameter (precipitation, catchment characteristics n, and maximum and minimum temperatures) climatic elasticity method named PnT, based on the widely used Budyko framework and simplified Makkink equation. We use this method to carry out the first comprehensive evaluation of the streamflow response to potential climate change for 372 widely spread catchments in China. The PnT climatic elasticity was first evaluated for a period 1980-2000, and then used to evaluate streamflow change response to climate change based on 12 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The results show that (1) the PnT climatic elasticity method is reliable; (2) projected increasing streamflow takes place in more than 60% of the selected catchments, with mean increments of 9% and 15.4% under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively; and (3) uncertainties in the projected streamflow are considerable in several regions, such as the Pearl River and Yellow River, with more than 40% of the selected catchments showing inconsistent change directions. Our results can help Chinese policy makers to manage and plan water resources more effectively, and the PnT climatic elasticity should be applied to other parts of the world.

  18. Climate change impacts and adaptation options for the Greek agriculture in 2021–2050: A monetary assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Georgopoulou

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a quantitative assessment of mid-term (2021–2050 climate change impacts on and potential adaptation options for selected crops in Greece that are of importance in terms of their share in national agricultural production and gross value added. Central points in the assessment are the monetary evaluation of impacts and the cost-benefit analysis of adaptation options. To address local variability in current and future climate conditions, analysis is spatially disaggregated into geographical regions using as an input downscaled results from climatic models. For some crops (cereals, vegetables, pulses, grapevines, changes in future agricultural yields are assessed by means of agronomic simulation models, while for the rest crops changes are assessed through regression models. The expected effects on crop yields of a number of potential adaptation options are also investigated through the same models, and the costs and benefits of these options are also quantitatively assessed. The findings indicate that climate change may create winners and losers depending on their agricultural activity and location, while adaptation can mitigate adverse effects of climate change under cost-effective terms.

  19. An Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, K. S.

    2009-09-01

    adaptation, mitigation and post-hazard recovery and resettlement measures. Providing basic necessities such as water, food and power, maintaining public health, implementing protective measures in the coastal zones and modifications in the urban infrastructure, especially in the coastal megacities become expensive. Impact of extremes on rails, roads and building are also becoming a major issue in the coastal zones and urban centres. Industrial sector is facing a threat from the falling reliable supply of water and power. However, procedure for the implementation of the strategies to mitigate the climate change impact and of the policy for the adaptation to climate change is slow. There are several hurdles for this, including various ecological, socio-economic, technical and political issues, alterations of the physical environment, inability of certain habitats and species to adapt to a new environment, abject poverty, lack of awareness, and the inefficient administrative mechanism. A comprehensive assessment of the shifts in regional climate and the impact of climate change on different facets of life in India, and of the current strategies and polices to face such challenges is made in this study. Suggestions for the improvement of the climate policy and adaptation strategy have been provided.

  20. Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, Melissa A.; Chen, Robert S.; Maldonado, Julie; Quattrochi, Dale

    2011-01-01

    The Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment workshop, sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for the National Climate Assessment (NCA), was held on April 28-29, 2011 at The Madison Hotel in Washington, DC. A group of 56 experts (see list in Appendix B) convened to share their experiences. Participants brought to bear a wide range of disciplinary expertise in the social and natural sciences, sector experience, and knowledge about developing and implementing indicators for a range of purposes. Participants included representatives from federal and state government, non-governmental organizations, tribes, universities, and communities. The purpose of the workshop was to assist the NCA in developing a strategic framework for climate-related physical, ecological, and socioeconomic indicators that can be easily communicated with the U.S. population and that will support monitoring, assessment, prediction, evaluation, and decision-making. The NCA indicators are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The workshop participants were asked to provide input on a number of topics, including: (1) categories of societal indicators for the NCA; (2) alternative approaches to constructing indicators and the better approaches for NCA to consider; (3) specific requirements and criteria for implementing the indicators; and (4) sources of data for and creators of such indicators. Socioeconomic indicators could include demographic, cultural, behavioral, economic, public health, and policy components relevant to impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation to climate change as well as both proactive and reactive responses to climate change. Participants provided

  1. Assessments of regional climate change and its impacts in Northern Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omstedt, Anders; von Storch, Hans; Reckermann, Marcus; Quante, Markus

    2015-04-01

    Regional climate change assessments are urgently needed to complement the big picture with regional results and scenarios of higher resolution and with relevance for local decision makers and stakeholders. A new type of assessment report originated in the original BACC report of 2008 (BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea region) which has served as role model for other assessments published or in preparation. It represents an approach to assessing and making available current knowledge on regional climate change and its regional impacts on the physical, biogeochemical and biological environment (ecosystems, socio-economic sphere). Reports of this type which are available or underway are the original BACC book (2008), the second BACC book (2015), the climate report for the greater Hamburg area (2011), and the NOSCCA report (North Sea Climate Change Assessment) which is expected to be published in 2016. The assessments are produced by teams of scientists from the region, led by lead authors who recruit experts from relevant topics to contribute. The process is not externally funded and completely based on published scientific evidence, and not biased by political or economic interest groups. The BACC-type reports aim to bring together consolidated knowledge that has broad consensus in the scientific community, but also acknowledging issues for which contradicting opinions are found in the literature, so that no consensus can be reached ("consensus on dissensus"). An international steering committee is responsible for overlooking the process, and all manuscripts are anonymously peer-reviewed by independent international experts. An outstanding outreach aspect of these reports is the close collaboration with regional stakeholders (for the BACC reports: HELCOM, the intergovernmental Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission and the major regional science-policy interface in the Baltic Sea region; for the Hamburg climate report: the Hamburg city

  2. Integrated impact assessment of climate and socio-economic change on dairy farms in a watershed in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paas, Wim; Kanellopoulos, Argyris; Ven, van de Gerrie; Reidsma, Pytrik

    2016-01-01

    Climate and socio-economic change will affect the land use and the economic viability of Dutch dairy farms. Explorations of future scenarios, which include different drivers and impacts, are needed to perform ex-ante policy assessment. This study uses a bio-economic farm model to assess impacts

  3. Curonian Lagoon drainage basin modelling and assessment of climate change impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalja Čerkasova

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Curonian Lagoon, which is the largest European coastal lagoon with a surface area of 1578 km2 and a drainage area of 100,458 km2, is facing a severe eutrophication problem. With its increasing water management difficulties, the need for a sophisticated hydrological model of the Curonian Lagoon's drainage area arose, in order to assess possible changes resulting from local and global processes. In this study, we developed and calibrated a sophisticated hydrological model with the required accuracy, as an initial step for the future development of a modelling framework that aims to correctly predict the movement of pesticides, sediments or nutrients, and to evaluate water-management practices. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to implement a model of the study area and to assess the impact of climate-change scenarios on the run-off of the Nemunas River and the Minija River, which are located in the Curonian Lagoons drainage basin. The models calibration and validation were performed using monthly streamflow data, and evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R2 and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE. The calculated values of the R2 and NSE for the Nemunas and Minija Rivers stations were 0.81 and 0.79 for the calibration, and 0.679 and 0.602 for the validation period. Two potential climate-change scenarios were developed within the general patterns of near-term climate projections, as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report: both pessimistic (substantial changes in precipitation and temperature and optimistic (insubstantial changes in precipitation and temperature. Both simulations produce similar general patterns in river-discharge change: a strong increase (up to 22% in the winter months, especially in February, a decrease during the spring (up to 10% and summer (up to 18%, and a slight increase during the autumn (up to 10%.

  4. Health impact assessment as an agent of policy change: improving the health impacts of the mayor of London's draft transport strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mindell, J; Sheridan, L; Joffe, M; Samson-Barry, H; Atkinson, S

    2004-03-01

    To increase the positive and mitigate the negative health impacts of the mayor's draft transport strategy for London. A rapid prospective health impact assessment (HIA) of the penultimate draft of the strategy, using a review commissioned by the regional director of public health; an appraisal of congestion charging; and a participatory workshop. Two audits of changes were performed to assess the impact on policy of the HIA process. Regional government policy development. Recommendations from the rapid HIA were fed back into the drafting process. Changes (a) between the penultimate draft and the draft for public consultation and (b) between that and the final mayoral strategy. The draft transport strategy published for consultation differed in a number of respects from the previous version. Almost all the recommendations from the HIA were incorporated into the final strategy. Significant changes included promoting sustainable travel plans for workplaces and schools; giving priority to infrastructure and services that benefit London's deprived communities; increased emphasis on promoting walking and cycling and reducing reliance on private cars; and a commitment to track the health impacts of the final strategy and its implementation. Specific additions included re-allocating road space. HIA was successful in influencing the transport strategy for London, resulting in several improvements from a health viewpoint. HIA is an effective method both for bringing about significant change in policy proposals and in increasing policy makers' understanding of determinants of health and hence in changing attitudes of policy makers.

  5. GPCC - A weather generator-based statistical downscaling tool for site-specific assessment of climate change impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resolution of climate model outputs are too coarse to be used as direct inputs to impact models for assessing climate change impacts on agricultural production, water resources, and eco-system services at local or site-specific scales. Statistical downscaling approaches are usually used to bridge th...

  6. Template for assessing climate change impacts and management options: TACCIMO user guide version 2.2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emrys Treasure; Steven McNulty; Jennifer Moore Myers; Lisa Nicole Jennings

    2014-01-01

    The Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Management Options (TACCIMO) is a Web-based tool developed by the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture to assist Federal, State, and private land managers and planners with evaluation of climate change science implications for sustainable natural resource management. TACCIMO is a dynamic information...

  7. Adapting crop rotations to climate change in regional impact modelling assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teixeira, Edmar I; de Ruiter, John; Ausseil, Anne-Gaelle; Daigneault, Adam; Johnstone, Paul; Holmes, Allister; Tait, Andrew; Ewert, Frank

    2018-03-01

    The environmental and economic sustainability of future cropping systems depends on adaptation to climate change. Adaptation studies commonly rely on agricultural systems models to integrate multiple components of production systems such as crops, weather, soil and farmers' management decisions. Previous adaptation studies have mostly focused on isolated monocultures. However, in many agricultural regions worldwide, multi-crop rotations better represent local production systems. It is unclear how adaptation interventions influence crops grown in sequences. We develop a catchment-scale assessment to investigate the effects of tactical adaptations (choice of genotype and sowing date) on yield and underlying crop-soil factors of rotations. Based on locally surveyed data, a silage-maize followed by catch-crop-wheat rotation was simulated with the APSIM model for the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, two time periods (1985-2004 and 2080-2100) and six climate models across the Kaituna catchment in New Zealand. Results showed that direction and magnitude of climate change impacts, and the response to adaptation, varied spatially and were affected by rotation carryover effects due to agronomical (e.g. timing of sowing and harvesting) and soil (e.g. residual nitrogen, N) aspects. For example, by adapting maize to early-sowing dates under a warmer climate, there was an advance in catch crop establishment which enhanced residual soil N uptake. This dynamics, however, differed with local environment and choice of short- or long-cycle maize genotypes. Adaptation was insufficient to neutralize rotation yield losses in lowlands but consistently enhanced yield gains in highlands, where other constraints limited arable cropping. The positive responses to adaptation were mainly due to increases in solar radiation interception across the entire growth season. These results provide deeper insights on the dynamics of climate change impacts for crop rotation systems. Such knowledge can be used

  8. Assessing the impacts of climate change on rice yields in the main rice areas of China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yao, Fengmei; Xu, Yinglong; Lin, Erda; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Zhang, Jiahua

    2007-01-01

    This paper assesses the impact of climate change on irrigated rice yield using B2 climate change scenario from the Regional Climate Model (RCM) and CERES-rice model during 2071--2090. Eight typical rice stations ranging in latitude, longitude, and elevation that are located in the main rice ecological zones of China are selected for impact assessment. First, Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES)-rice model is validated using farm experiment data in selected stations. The simulated results represent satisfactorily the trend of flowering duration and yields. The deviation of simulation within ± 10% of observed flowering duration and ± 15% of observed yield. Second, the errors of the outputs of RCM due to the difference of topography between station point and grid point is corrected. The corrected output of the RCM used for simulating rice flowering duration and yield is more reliable than the not corrected. Without CO2 direct effect on crop, the results from the assessment explore that B2 climate change scenario would have a negative impact on rice yield at most rice stations and have little impacts at Fuzhou and Kunming. To find the change of inter-annual rice yield, a preliminary assessment is made based on comparative cumulative probability at low and high yield and the coefficient variable of yield between the B2 scenario and baseline. Without the CO2 direct effect on rice yield, the result indicates that frequency for low yield would increase and it reverses for high yield, and the variance for rice yield would increase. It is concluded that high frequency at low yield and high variances of rice yield could pose a threat to rice yield at most selected stations in the main rice areas of China. With the CO2 direct effect on rice yield, rice yield increase in all selected stations

  9. Assessing the impacts of climate change on rice yields in the main rice areas of China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yao, Fengmei [College of Earth Sciences, The Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 19A, Yuquan Road, Beijing, 100049 (China); Xu, Yinglong; Lin, Erda [Agricultural Environment and Sustainable Development Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, 100081 (China); Yokozawa, Masayuki [National Institute for Agro-environmental Sciences, Tsukuba 305-8604 (Japan); Zhang, Jiahua [Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081 (China)

    2007-02-15

    This paper assesses the impact of climate change on irrigated rice yield using B2 climate change scenario from the Regional Climate Model (RCM) and CERES-rice model during 2071--2090. Eight typical rice stations ranging in latitude, longitude, and elevation that are located in the main rice ecological zones of China are selected for impact assessment. First, Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES)-rice model is validated using farm experiment data in selected stations. The simulated results represent satisfactorily the trend of flowering duration and yields. The deviation of simulation within {+-} 10% of observed flowering duration and {+-} 15% of observed yield. Second, the errors of the outputs of RCM due to the difference of topography between station point and grid point is corrected. The corrected output of the RCM used for simulating rice flowering duration and yield is more reliable than the not corrected. Without CO2 direct effect on crop, the results from the assessment explore that B2 climate change scenario would have a negative impact on rice yield at most rice stations and have little impacts at Fuzhou and Kunming. To find the change of inter-annual rice yield, a preliminary assessment is made based on comparative cumulative probability at low and high yield and the coefficient variable of yield between the B2 scenario and baseline. Without the CO2 direct effect on rice yield, the result indicates that frequency for low yield would increase and it reverses for high yield, and the variance for rice yield would increase. It is concluded that high frequency at low yield and high variances of rice yield could pose a threat to rice yield at most selected stations in the main rice areas of China. With the CO2 direct effect on rice yield, rice yield increase in all selected stations.

  10. Assessing socioeconomic impacts of climate change on U.S. forests, wood-product markets, and forest recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd C. Irland; Darius Adams; Ralph Alig; Carter J. Betz; Chi-Chung Chen; Mark Hutchins; Bruce A. McCarl; Ken Skog; Brent L. Sohngen

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we discuss the problems of projecting social and economic changes affecting forests and review recent efforts to assess the wood-market impacts of possible climate changes. To illustrate the range of conditions encountered in projecting socioeconomic change linked to forests, we consider two markedly different uses: forest products markets and forest...

  11. Assessing Changes in Precipitation and Impacts on Groundwater in Southeastern Brazil using Regional Hydroclimate Reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, A.; Fernandes, M.; Silva, G. C., Jr.

    2017-12-01

    Aquifers can be key players in regional water resources. Precipitation infiltration is the most relevant process in recharging the aquifers. In that regard, understanding precipitation changes and impacts on the hydrological cycle helps in the assessment of groundwater availability from the aquifers. Regional modeling systems can provide precipitation, near-surface air temperature, together with soil moisture at different ground levels from coupled land-surface schemes. More accurate those variables are better the evaluation of the precipitation impact on the groundwater. Downscaling of global reanalysis very often employs regional modeling systems, in order to give more detailed information for impact assessment studies at regional scales. In particular, the regional modeling system, Satellite-enhanced Regional Downscaling for Applied Studies (SRDAS), might improve the accuracy of hydrometeorological variables in regions with spatial and temporal scarcity of in-situ observations. SRDAS combines assimilation of precipitation estimates from gauge-corrected satellite-based products with spectral nudging technique. The SRDAS hourly outputs provide monthly means of atmospheric and land-surface variables, including precipitation, used in the calculations of the hydrological budget terms. Results show the impact of changes in precipitation on groundwater in the aquifer located near the southeastern coastline of Brazil, through the assessment of the water-cycle terms, using a hydrological model during dry and rainy periods found in the 15-year numerical integration of SRDAS.

  12. The 2008 California climate change assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, G.

    2008-12-01

    In 2005, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger signed Executive Order S-03-05, which laid the foundation for California's ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation reduction efforts. The 2020 goal is now codified in state law requiring bringing 2020 emissions to the 1990 levels. The Executive Order also mandates the preparation of biennial updates on the latest climate change science, potential impacts, and assessment of the state's efforts to manage its climate change risks through various adaptation options. In 2006, the first of these mandated scientific assessments (The Governor's Scenarios Report) was released. Based on new scientific studies conducted in the interim, the next assessment, the '2008 Governor's Scenarios Report' is currently in preparation. It has three principal goals: (1) to improve the assessment of climate changes for California and associated impacts on key physical and biological indicators; (2) to begin to translate these physical and biological impacts into sectoral economic impacts; and (3) to begin to develop and evaluate strategies for key sectors or regions for adapting to climate changes already underway. Contributors to this session will present some of this new research to the scientific community. Among the most exciting new insights are impacts assessments for the all-important water and agricultural sectors, coastal areas, public health and related air quality and environmental justice issues, the forestry and energy sectors. This presentation will give an overview of the overall effort which will result in about 35 scientific papers from different research institutions in California. All of the studies are interlinked in such a way as to produce a consistent overall assessment.

  13. Interdisciplinary assessment of sea-level rise and climate change impacts on the lower Nile delta, Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sušnik, Janez; Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia, Lydia S; Baumert, Niklas; Kloos, Julia; Renaud, Fabrice G; La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Mabrouk, Badr; Savić, Dragan A; Kapelan, Zoran; Ludwig, Ralf; Fischer, Georg; Roson, Roberto; Zografos, Christos

    2015-01-15

    CLImate-induced changes on WAter and SECurity (CLIWASEC) was a cluster of three complementary EC-FP7 projects assessing climate-change impacts throughout the Mediterranean on: hydrological cycles (CLIMB - CLimate-Induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean Basins); water security (WASSERMed - Water Availability and Security in Southern EuRope and the Mediterranean) and human security connected with possible hydro-climatic conflicts (CLICO - CLImate change hydro-COnflicts and human security). The Nile delta case study was common between the projects. CLIWASEC created an integrated forum for modelling and monitoring to understand potential impacts across sectors. This paper summarises key results from an integrated assessment of potential challenges to water-related security issues, focusing on expected sea-level rise impacts by the middle of the century. We use this common focus to illustrate the added value of project clustering. CLIWASEC pursued multidisciplinary research by adopting a single research objective: sea-level rise related water security threats, resulting in a more holistic view of problems and potential solutions. In fragmenting research, policy-makers can fail to understand how multiple issues can materialize from one driver. By combining efforts, an integrated assessment of water security threats in the lower Nile is formulated, offering policy-makers a clearer picture of inter-related issues to society and environment. The main issues identified by each project (land subsidence, saline intrusion - CLIMB; water supply overexploitation, land loss - WASSERMed; employment and housing security - CLICO), are in fact related. Water overexploitation is exacerbating land subsidence and saline intrusion, impacting on employment and placing additional pressure on remaining agricultural land and the underdeveloped housing market. All these have wider implications for regional development. This richer understanding could be critical in making better

  14. Climate Change Impact Assessment of Hydro-Climate in Southern Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M. L.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Impacts of climate change on the hydroclimate of the coastal region in the south of Peninsular Malaysia in the 21st century was assessed by means of a regional climate model utilizing an ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations. Coarse resolution Global Climate Models' future projections covering four emission scenarios based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) datasets were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over the study area. The analyses were made in terms of rainfall, air temperature, evapotranporation, and soil water storage.

  15. A multi-hazard regional level impact assessment for Europe combining indicators of climatic and non-climatic change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lung, T.; Lavalle, C.; Hiederer, R.; Dosio, A.; Bouwer, L.M.

    2013-01-01

    To better prioritise adaptation strategies to a changing climate that are currently being developed, there is a need for quantitative regional level assessments that are systematic and comparable across multiple weather hazards. This study presents an indicator-based impact assessment framework at

  16. Uncertainty of a hydrological climate change impact assessment - Is it really all about climate uncertainty?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honti, Mark; Reichert, Peter; Scheidegger, Andreas; Stamm, Christian

    2013-04-01

    Climate change impact assessments have become more and more popular in hydrology since the middle 1980's with another boost after the publication of the IPCC AR4 report. During hundreds of impact studies a quasi-standard methodology emerged, which is mainly shaped by the growing public demand for predicting how water resources management or flood protection should change in the close future. The ``standard'' workflow considers future climate under a specific IPCC emission scenario simulated by global circulation models (GCMs), possibly downscaled by a regional climate model (RCM) and/or a stochastic weather generator. The output from the climate models is typically corrected for bias before feeding it into a calibrated hydrological model, which is run on the past and future meteorological data to analyse the impacts of climate change on the hydrological indicators of interest. The impact predictions are as uncertain as any forecast that tries to describe the behaviour of an extremely complex system decades into the future. Future climate predictions are uncertain due to the scenario uncertainty and the GCM model uncertainty that is obvious on finer resolution than continental scale. Like in any hierarchical model system, uncertainty propagates through the descendant components. Downscaling increases uncertainty with the deficiencies of RCMs and/or weather generators. Bias correction adds a strong deterministic shift to the input data. Finally the predictive uncertainty of the hydrological model ends the cascade that leads to the total uncertainty of the hydrological impact assessment. There is an emerging consensus between many studies on the relative importance of the different uncertainty sources. The prevailing perception is that GCM uncertainty dominates hydrological impact studies. There are only few studies, which found that the predictive uncertainty of hydrological models can be in the same range or even larger than climatic uncertainty. We carried out a

  17. Climate change impact and vulnerability assessment of forests in the Indian Western Himalayan region: A case study of Himachal Pradesh, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujata Upgupta

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change impact and vulnerability assessment at state and regional levels is necessary to develop adaptation strategies for forests in the biogeographically vital Himalayan region. The present study assesses forest ecosystem vulnerability to climate change across Himachal Pradesh and presents the priority districts for vulnerability reduction under ‘current climate’ and ‘future climate’ scenarios. Vulnerability of forests under ‘current climate’ scenario is assessed by adopting indicator-based approach, while the vulnerability under ‘future climate’ scenario is assessed using climate and vegetation impact models. Based on the vulnerability index estimated to present the vulnerability of forests under current and projected climate change impacts representing climate driven vulnerability, five districts – Chamba, Kangra, Kullu, Mandi and Shimla are identified as priority forest districts for adaptation planning. Identifying vulnerable forest districts and forests will help policy makers and forest managers to prioritize resource allocation and forest management interventions, to restore health and productivity of forests and to build long-term resilience to climate change.

  18. Health Impacts of Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries: A Regional Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Priorities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Rokho; Woodward, Alistair; Hales, Simon; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Iddings, Steven; Naicker, Jyotishma; Bambrick, Hilary; McMichael, Anthony J; Ebi, Kristie L

    2016-11-01

    Between 2010 and 2012, the World Health Organization Division of Pacific Technical Support led a regional climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project, in collaboration with health sector partners, in 13 Pacific island countries-Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. We assessed the vulnerabilities of Pacific island countries to the health impacts of climate change and planned adaptation strategies to minimize such threats to health. This assessment involved a combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques. The former included descriptive epidemiology, time series analyses, Poisson regression, and spatial modeling of climate and climate-sensitive disease data, in the few instances where this was possible; the latter included wide stakeholder consultations, iterative consensus building, and expert opinion. Vulnerabilities were ranked using a "likelihood versus impact" matrix, and adaptation strategies were prioritized and planned accordingly. The highest-priority climate-sensitive health risks in Pacific island countries included trauma from extreme weather events, heat-related illnesses, compromised safety and security of water and food, vector-borne diseases, zoonoses, respiratory illnesses, psychosocial ill-health, non-communicable diseases, population pressures, and health system deficiencies. Adaptation strategies relating to these climate change and health risks could be clustered according to categories common to many countries in the Pacific region. Pacific island countries are among the most vulnerable in the world to the health impacts of climate change. This vulnerability is a function of their unique geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics combined with their exposure to changing weather patterns associated with climate change, the health risks entailed, and the limited capacity

  19. Enhanced science-stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jönsson, Anna Maria; Anderbrant, Olle; Holmér, Jennie; Johansson, Jacob; Schurgers, Guy; Svensson, Glenn P; Smith, Henrik G

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science-stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science-stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate a discussion among the science-stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models.

  20. Assessing the impact of climatic change in cold regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parry, M L; Carter, T R [eds.

    1984-01-01

    The report describes the use of models to predict the consequences of global warming in particular (cold) regions. The workshop focused on two related issues: (a) the current sensitivity of ecosystems and farming systems to climatic variability, and (b) the range of impacts likely for certain changes of climate. This report addresses four broad themes: (1) the nature of the research problem; (2) methods of evaluating sensitivity to climatic variability; (3) methods of measuring the impact of climate change; and (4) how these methods might be refined. (ACR)

  1. A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Sperotto, Anna; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-03-01

    This paper presents a review of existing multi-risk assessment concepts and tools applied by organisations and projects providing the basis for the development of a multi-risk methodology in a climate change perspective. Relevant initiatives were developed for the assessment of multiple natural hazards (e.g. floods, storm surges, droughts) affecting the same area in a defined timeframe (e.g. year, season, decade). Major research efforts were focused on the identification and aggregation of multiple hazard types (e.g. independent, correlated, cascading hazards) by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Moreover, several methodologies aim to assess the vulnerability of multiple targets to specific natural hazards by means of vulnerability functions and indicators at the regional and local scale. The overall results of the review show that multi-risk approaches do not consider the effects of climate change and mostly rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities, no changes among exposed elements). A relevant challenge is therefore to develop comprehensive formal approaches for the assessment of different climate-induced hazards and risks, including dynamic exposure and vulnerability. This requires the selection and aggregation of suitable hazard and vulnerability metrics to make a synthesis of information about multiple climate impacts, the spatial analysis and ranking of risks, including their visualization and communication to end-users. To face these issues, climate impact assessors should develop cross-sectorial collaborations among different expertise (e.g. modellers, natural scientists, economists) integrating information on climate change scenarios with sectorial climate impact assessment, towards the development of a comprehensive multi-risk assessment process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Assessment of climate change impact on yield of major crops in the Banas River Basin, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubey, Swatantra Kumar; Sharma, Devesh

    2018-09-01

    Crop growth models like AquaCrop are useful in understanding the impact of climate change on crop production considering the various projections from global circulation models and regional climate models. The present study aims to assess the climate change impact on yield of major crops in the Banas River Basin i.e., wheat, barley and maize. Banas basin is part of the semi-arid region of Rajasthan state in India. AquaCrop model is used to calculate the yield of all the three crops for a historical period of 30years (1981-2010) and then compared with observed yield data. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values are calculated to assess the model accuracy in prediction of yield. Further, the calibrated model is used to predict the possible impacts of climate change and CO 2 concentration on crop yield using CORDEX-SA climate projections of three driving climate models (CNRM-CM5, CCSM4 and MPI-ESM-LR) for two different scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the future period 2021-2050. RMSE values of simulated yield with respect to observed yield of wheat, barley and maize are 11.99, 16.15 and 19.13, respectively. It is predicted that crop yield of all three crops will increase under the climate change conditions for future period (2021-2050). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Chunyang; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Huang, Qingxu; Zhang, Qiaofeng; Zhang, Da

    2015-11-01

    Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Future Climate Change Impact Assessment of River Flows at Two Watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M. L.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

    2016-12-01

    Impacts of climate change on the river flows under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungun watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate model and a physically-based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations. Coarse resolution GCMs' future projections covering a wide range of emission scenarios were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over the study area. Hydrologic simulations of the two selected watersheds were carried out at hillslope-scale and at hourly increments.

  5. Wildlife as biological indicators for assessing impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diamond, A.W.

    1990-01-01

    Estimates of the impacts of climate change on wildlife are necessarily constrained by knowledge of the effects of climate on wildlife. A review is presented of the better-known impacts of climate on wildlife, examining their utility as ecological indicators. The most obvious feature of any species is its geographic distribution, or range. Climate may affect distribution indirectly through effects on habitat, directly through physiological effects, or most probably, through both. Impacts can include changes in distribution of habitat, changes in distribution of species, and changes in migration routes. Direct effects of climate include timing and success of breeding, timing and success of migration, winter survival, and extreme events. Distribution changes are powerful integrators of ecosystem-level events, but poor indicators of particular changes. Changes in the timing of migration, and the phenology of breeding, are more directly determined by weather events and hence will be better indicators of changing climate. Detailed knowledge of effects of climate on timing and success of breeding is available for only a few species, and has not been carefully synthesized with a view to using such variables as climatic indicators. Temperature maxima and minima, frost-free and degree days, and estimates of precipitation on finer scales, both temporal and geographic, are needed to predict the effects of climate change on wildlife. 48 refs

  6. Climate change impacts: an Ontario perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mortsch, L.

    1995-11-01

    Significant changes in the climate system which are likely to affect biophysical, social and economic systems in various ways, were discussed. Trends in greenhouse gas levels show that during the 20. century, human activity has changed the make-up of the atmosphere and its greenhouse effect properties. A pilot study on the impacts of climate change identified changes in the water regime such as declines in net basin supply, lake levels and outflows, as important concerns. These changes would have impacts on water quality, wetlands, municipal water supply, hydroelectric power generation, commercial shipping, tourism and recreation, and to a lesser extent, on food productions. Climate impact assessments suggest that world conditions will change significantly as a result. Those with less resources are likely to be most affected by climate change, and the impacts on other regions of the world will be more significant to Ontario than the direct impacts on Ontario itself. In an effort to keep pace with global changes, Ontario will have to limit emissions, conduct research in innovative technology and develop greater awareness of the risk of climate change. refs., tabs., figs

  7. Tools for Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Wildfire Regimes in Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hety Herawati

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Fire is an intrinsic element of many forest ecosystems; it shapes their ecological processes, determines species composition and influences landscape structure. However, wildfires may: have undesirable effects on biodiversity and vegetation coverage; produce carbon emissions to the atmosphere; release smoke affecting human health; and cause loss of lives and property. There have been increasing concerns about the potential impacts of climate variability and change on forest fires. Climate change can alter factors that influence the occurrence of fire ignitions, fuel availability and fuel flammability. This review paper aims to identify tools and methods used for gathering information about the impacts of climate variability and change on forest fires, forest fuels and the probability of fires. Tools to assess the impacts of climate variability and change on forest fires include: remote sensing, dynamic global vegetation and landscape models, integrated fire-vegetation models, fire danger rating systems, empirical models and fire behavior models. This review outlines each tool in terms of its characteristics, spatial and temporal resolution, limitations and applicability of the results. To enhance and improve tool performance, each must be continuously tested in all types of forest ecosystems.

  8. Second California Assessment: Integrated climate change impacts assessment of natural and managed systems. Guest editorial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, G.; Cayan, D.R.; Moser, S.; Hanemann, M.; Jones, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    Since 2006 the scientific community in California, in cooperation with resource managers, has been conducting periodic statewide studies about the potential impacts of climate change on natural and managed systems. This Special Issue is a compilation of revised papers that originate from the most recent assessment that concluded in 2009. As with the 2006 studies that influenced the passage of California's landmark Global Warming Solutions Act (AB32), these papers have informed policy formulation at the state level, helping bring climate adaptation as a complementary measure to mitigation. We provide here a brief introduction to the papers included in this Special Issue focusing on how they are coordinated and support each other. We describe the common set of downscaled climate and sea-level rise scenarios used in this assessment that came from six different global climate models (GCMs) run under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: B1 (low emissions) and A2 (a medium-high emissions). Recommendations for future state assessments, some of which are being implemented in an on-going new assessment that will be completed in 2012, are offered. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  9. Climate Change Impact Assessment of Dike Safety and Flood Risk in the Vidaa River System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, H.; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Larsen, J.

    2013-01-01

    The impact of climate change on the flood risk and dike safety in the Vidaa River system, a cross-border catchment located in the southern part of Jutland, Denmark and northern Germany, is analysed. The river discharges to the Wadden Sea through a tidal sluice, and extreme water level conditions...... in the river system occur in periods of high sea water levels where the sluice is closed and increased catchment run-off take place. Climate model data from the ENSEMBLES data archive are used to assess the changes in climate variables and the resulting effect on catchment run-off. Extreme catchment run......-off is expected to increase about 8 % in 2050 and 14 % in 2100. The changes in sea water level is assessed considering climate projections of mean sea level rise, isostatic changes, and changes in storm surge statistics. At the Vidaa sluice a mean sea level rise of 0.15–0.39 m in 2050 and 0.41–1.11 m in 2010...

  10. A probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts on yield and nitrogen leaching from winter wheat in Denmark

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. D. Børgesen

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate change will impact agricultural production both directly and indirectly, but uncertainties related to likely impacts constrain current political decision making on adaptation. This analysis focuses on a methodology for applying probabilistic climate change projections to assess modelled wheat yields and nitrate leaching from arable land in Denmark. The probabilistic projections describe a range of possible changes in temperature and precipitation. Two methodologies to apply climate projections in impact models were tested. Method A was a straightforward correction of temperature and precipitation, where the same correction was applied to the baseline weather data for all days in the year, and method B used seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature to correct the baseline weather data. Based on climate change projections for the time span 2000 to 2100 and two soil types, the mean impact and the uncertainty of the climate change projections were analysed. Combining probability density functions of climate change projections with crop model simulations, the uncertainty and trends in nitrogen (N leaching and grain yields with climate change were quantified. The uncertainty of climate change projections was the dominating source of uncertainty in the projections of yield and N leaching, whereas the methodology to seasonally apply climate change projections had a minor effect. For most conditions, the probability of large yield reductions and large N leaching losses tracked trends in mean yields and mean N leaching. The impacts of the uncertainty in climate change were higher for loamy sandy soil than for sandy soils due to generally higher yield levels for loamy sandy soils. There were large differences between soil types in response to climate change, illustrating the importance of including soil information for regional studies of climate change impacts on cropping systems.

  11. Heat, Human Performance, and Occupational Health: A Key Issue for the Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjellstrom, Tord; Briggs, David; Freyberg, Chris; Lemke, Bruno; Otto, Matthias; Hyatt, Olivia

    2016-01-01

    Ambient heat exposure is a well-known health hazard, which reduces human performance and work capacity at heat levels already common in tropical and subtropical areas. Various health problems have been reported. Increasing heat exposure during the hottest seasons of each year is a key feature of global climate change. Heat exhaustion and reduced human performance are often overlooked in climate change health impact analysis. Later this century, many among the four billion people who live in hot areas worldwide will experience significantly reduced work capacity owing to climate change. In some areas, 30-40% of annual daylight hours will become too hot for work to be carried out. The social and economic impacts will be considerable, with global gross domestic product (GDP) losses greater than 20% by 2100. The analysis to date is piecemeal. More analysis of climate change-related occupational health impact assessments is greatly needed.

  12. Climate change impact assessment and adaptation under uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wardekker, J.A.

    2011-01-01

    Expected impacts of climate change are associated with large uncertainties, particularly at the local level. Adaptation scientists, practitioners, and decision-makers will need to find ways to cope with these uncertainties. Several approaches have been suggested as ‘uncertainty-proof’ to some

  13. Assessment of the impact of climate change and land cover change on landslide in Tana Toraja district

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardiansyah, M.; Rafiuddin, A.; Jadmiko, S. D.; Boer, R.

    2018-05-01

    Landslides are the frequent and widespread climate hazard in Indonesia that cause loss of human life and damage to property. Tana Toraja District is one of the regencies in Indonesia with the highest number of landslide events. Throughout the year 2016 there were at least 3 (three) landslide incidents that caused casualties and disconnection of transportation access. The study aimed to assess the impact of climate change and land cover change on landslide hazard in the Tana Toraja District. The study showed that in 2014 the number of landslide area with high risk was 53.3% and very high risk 14.4%, while in 2031 the high risk 56.4% and very high risk 12.7%. Thus, in high climate risk area, landslide adaptation and risk reduction strategies in the framework of climate change are necessary.

  14. Scaling up: Assessing social impacts at the macro-scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schirmer, Jacki

    2011-01-01

    Social impacts occur at various scales, from the micro-scale of the individual to the macro-scale of the community. Identifying the macro-scale social changes that results from an impacting event is a common goal of social impact assessment (SIA), but is challenging as multiple factors simultaneously influence social trends at any given time, and there are usually only a small number of cases available for examination. While some methods have been proposed for establishing the contribution of an impacting event to macro-scale social change, they remain relatively untested. This paper critically reviews methods recommended to assess macro-scale social impacts, and proposes and demonstrates a new approach. The 'scaling up' method involves developing a chain of logic linking change at the individual/site scale to the community scale. It enables a more problematised assessment of the likely contribution of an impacting event to macro-scale social change than previous approaches. The use of this approach in a recent study of change in dairy farming in south east Australia is described.

  15. Adapting to climate change. Towards a European framework for action. Impact Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-04-01

    the general objective of promoting adaptation is translated into this context to specific objectives i.e. of identifying priority adaptation measures and of defining an action plan for the next 4 years. It also establishes operational objectives corresponding to the key problems identified in the previous section. This impact assessment is of a qualitative nature. A first set of options is presented in Chapter 4, these refer to the overall adaptation approaches, for which a proportionate assessment of the economic, environmental and social impacts is conducted to allow a prioritisation of adaptation actions. A second set of options is presented in Chapter 5, which refers to the specific actions to be undertaken in the short term. These options are assessed with respect to the operational criteria defined in chapter 3, and with respect to subsidiarity, knowledge basis and resources aspects. Chapter 6 describes the monitoring and evaluation actions to be undertaken in priority, to allow a further review of the action framework with respect to the operational objectives defined in chapter 3. The analysis is based on the 2008 EEA/JRC/WHO report on Climate Change Impacts, and on a list of other reports and papers quoted in footnotes or detailed in an appendix, together with a glossary and a report providing detailed results on the public and stakeholder consultations on the Green Paper. Annex 1 provides further details on the framework for integrated assessment of adaptation policies, including recent estimates on adaptation costs from the literature. A more detailed analysis of climate change vulnerability, adaptation potential and the need for EU action is provided for environmental cross cutting issues (Annex 2) and at Sectoral or geographical level (Annex 3). Annex 4 provides an overview of National adaptation strategies. Annex 5 provides details on the concrete measures that have been screened for the short-term EU action plan. An executive summary is presented in a

  16. assessing climate change impacts on river hydrology

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    71

    model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), in order to evaluate the effect of climate. 24 change on rainfall ... to project future climate data based on the CO2 emission scenarios.The RCMs are of finer ..... Springer Science+Business. 2.

  17. National and regional climate change impact assessments in the forestry sector. Workshop summary and abstracts of oral and poster presentations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindner, M [ed.

    2000-07-01

    Climate change is likely to affect forests and the forest industry during the 21{sup st} century. Different processes in forest ecosystems and the forest sector are sensitive to climate and many different projects have been conducted, in which the scale of study varied from the individual leaf to the whole globe. Several attempts have been made to link impact models (e.g., ecological and socio-economic models), and to integrate them in national or regional climate impact assessment studies. However, integration of climate impact assessments for the forestry sector is still a relatively new issue on the research agenda. From November 10 to 13, 1999 the Postdam Institue for Climate Impact Research and the European Forest Institute organised a workshop in Wenddoche near Belzig (Germany) to bring together individuals and research groups from the currently developing research community, to provide a forum for the exchange of experience, and to stimulate further research collaboration. The workshop attracted 31 scientists from 12 countries, representing a wide range of disciplines covering ecophysiology, soils, forest ecology, growth and yield, silviculture, remote sensing, forest policy, and forest economics. Several presentations investigated possible impacts of climate change on forest growth and development. A second major topic was the carbon budget and the possible contribution of forestry to carbon dioxide mitigation. The third important focus was the application of economic models to estimate socio-economic consequences of changes in forest productivity and the linkage of ecological and economic models. Non-timber forest benefits were addressed in one regional impact assessment and in two national integrated assessments from the U.S. and Germany. The latter also included social components with the involvement of stakeholders and the decision making of forest owners under global change.

  18. Development and Climate Change: A Mainstreaming Approach for Assessing Economic, Social, and Environmental Impacts of Adaptation Measures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

    2009-01-01

    The paper introduces the so-called climate change mainstreaming approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives. The approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. These indicators are selected...... how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of Mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in Tanzania and malaria protection in Tanzania...

  19. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Idaho National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christopher P. Ischay; Ernest L. Fossum; Polly C. Buotte; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Alexander Peterson

    2014-10-01

    The University of Idaho (UI) was asked to participate in the development of a climate change vulnerability assessment for Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This report describes the outcome of that assessment. The climate change happening now, due in large part to human activities, is expected to continue in the future. UI and INL used a common framework for assessing vulnerability that considers exposure (future climate change), sensitivity (system or component responses to climate), impact (exposure combined with sensitivity), and adaptive capacity (capability of INL to modify operations to minimize climate change impacts) to assess vulnerability. Analyses of climate change (exposure) revealed that warming that is ongoing at INL will continue in the coming decades, with increased warming in later decades and under scenarios of greater greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of precipitation are more uncertain, with multi model means exhibiting somewhat wetter conditions and more wet days per year. Additional impacts relevant to INL include estimates of more burned area and increased evaporation and transpiration, leading to reduced soil moisture and plant growth.

  20. Assessing hydrologic impacts of future Land Change scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepner, W. G.; Burns, S.; Sidman, G.; Levick, L.; Goodrich, D. C.; Guertin, P.; Yee, W.; Scianni, M.

    2012-12-01

    An approach was developed to characterize the hydrologic impacts of urban expansion through time for the San Pedro River, a watershed of immense international importance that straddles the U.S./Mexico border. Future urban growth is a key driving force altering local and regional hydrology and is represented by decadal changes in housing density maps from 2010 to 2100 derived from the Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) database. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize the hydrologic impacts of future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The presentation will report 1) the methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate basin-wide impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) initial results of the application of the methodology, and 3) discuss implications of the analysis.

  1. Assessing climate change impacts on water resources in remote mountain regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buytaert, Wouter; De Bièvre, Bert

    2013-04-01

    From a water resources perspective, remote mountain regions are often considered as a basket case. They are often regions where poverty is often interlocked with multiple threats to water supply, data scarcity, and high uncertainties. In these environments, it is paramount to generate locally relevant knowledge about water resources and how they impact local livelihoods. This is often problematic. Existing environmental data collection tends to be geographically biased towards more densely populated regions, and prioritized towards strategic economic activities. Data may also be locked behind institutional and technological barriers. These issues create a "knowledge trap" for data-poor regions, which is especially acute in remote and hard-to-reach mountain regions. We present lessons learned from a decade of water resources research in remote mountain regions of the Andes, Africa and South Asia. We review the entire tool chain of assessing climate change impacts on water resources, including the interrogation and downscaling of global circulation models, translating climate variables in water availability and access, and assessing local vulnerability. In global circulation models, mountain regions often stand out as regions of high uncertainties and lack of agreement of future trends. This is partly a technical artifact because of the different resolution and representation of mountain topography, but it also highlights fundamental uncertainties in climate impacts on mountain climate. This problem also affects downscaling efforts, because regional climate models should be run in very high spatial resolution to resolve local gradients, which is computationally very expensive. At the same time statistical downscaling methods may fail to find significant relations between local climate properties and synoptic processes. Further uncertainties are introduced when downscaled climate variables such as precipitation and temperature are to be translated in hydrologically

  2. Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gambarelli, G.; Goria, A.

    2004-07-01

    The paper deals with the social and economic dimensions of climate change impacts and adaptation in Italy. The ultimate aim of the paper is to provide policy makers and experts with a conceptual framework, as well as methodological and operational tools for dealing with climate change impacts and adaptation from an economic perspective. In order to do so, first a conceptual and theoretical framework of the economic assessment of climate change impacts is presented and the state of the art about impact assessment studies is briefly analysed. Then, the Italian case is taken into account, by underlying the main impacts and adaptation challenges that are likely to be implied by climate change in the next decades. The analysis of the Italian case is particularly addressed through the description of the methodology and results of two case studies. The first one, dealing mainly with impact assessment, is carried out at the national level and is part of a EC funded project on Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE). The second one is carried out at the local level and focuses on sea level rise impacts and adaptation in a plane south of Rome. The two case studies allow to propose simple and flexible methodologies for the economic impact assessment and the economic valuation of adaptation strategies

  3. Determination of significance in Ecological Impact Assessment: Past change, current practice and future improvements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Briggs, Sam; Hudson, Malcolm D., E-mail: mdh@soton.ac.uk

    2013-01-15

    Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) is an important tool for conservation and achieving sustainable development. 'Significant' impacts are those which disturb or alter the environment to a measurable degree. Significance is a crucial part of EcIA, our understanding of the concept in practice is vital if it is to be effective as a tool. This study employed three methods to assess how the determination of significance has changed through time, what current practice is, and what would lead to future improvements. Three data streams were collected: interviews with expert stakeholders, a review of 30 Environmental Statements and a broad-scale survey of the United Kingdom Institute of Ecology and Environmental Management (IEEM) members. The approach taken in the determination of significance has become more standardised and subjectivity has become constrained through a transparent framework. This has largely been driven by a set of guidelines produced by IEEM in 2006. The significance of impacts is now more clearly justified and the accuracy with which it is determined has improved. However, there are limitations to accuracy and effectiveness of the determination of significance. These are the quality of baseline survey data, our scientific understanding of ecological processes and the lack of monitoring and feedback of results. These in turn are restricted by the limited resources available in consultancies. The most notable recommendations for future practice are the implementation of monitoring and the publication of feedback, the creation of a central database for baseline survey data and the streamlining of guidance. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The assessment of significance has changed markedly through time. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The IEEM guidelines have driven a standardisation of practice. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Currently limited by quality of baseline data and scientific understanding. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Monitoring

  4. Assessing impact of climate change on season length in Karnataka

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Changes in seasons and season length are an indicator, as well as an effect, of climate change. Seasonal change profoundly affects the balance of life in ecosystems and impacts essential human activities such as agriculture and irrigation. This study investigates the uncertainty of season length in Karnataka state, India, ...

  5. Integrated regional assessment of global climatic change. Lessons from the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, Stewart J.

    1996-01-01

    This paper outlines the potential role integrated regional assessments of global climatic change scenarios could play in building better links between science and related policy concerns. The concept is illustrated through description of an ongoing case study from Canada-the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS). As part of the Government of Canada's Green Plan, the Global Warming Science Program includes a study of regional impacts of global warming scenarios in the Mackenzie Basin, located in northwestern Canada. The MBIS is a six-year program focussing on potential climate-induced changes in the land and water resource base, and the implications of four scenarios of global climatic change on land use and economic policies in this region. These policy issues include interjurisdictional water management, sustainability of native lifestyles, economic development opportunities (agriculture, forestry, tourism, etc.), sustainability of ecosystems and infrastructure maintenance. MBIS is due to be completed in 1997. MBIS represents an attempt to address regional impacts by incorporating a 'family of integrators' into the study framework, and by directly involving stakeholders in planning and research activities. The experience in organizing and carrying out this project may provide some lessons for others interested in organizing regional or country studies

  6. The Future of Hydropower: Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change, Energy Prices and New Storage Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudard, Ludovic; Madani, Kaveh; Romerio, Franco

    2016-04-01

    The future of hydropower depends on various drivers, and in particular on climate change, electricity market evolution and innovation in new storage technologies. Their impacts on the power plants' profitability can widely differ in regards of scale, timing, and probability of occurrence. In this respect, the risk should not be expressed only in terms of expected revenue, but also of uncertainty. These two aspects must be considered to assess the future of hydropower. This presentation discusses the impacts of climate change, electricity market volatility and competing energy storage's technologies and quantifies them in terms of annual revenue. Our simulations integrate a glacio-hydrological model (GERM) with various electricity market data and models (mean reversion and jump diffusion). The medium (2020-50) and long-term (2070-2100) are considered thanks to various greenhouse gas scenarios (A1B, A2 and RCP3PD) and the stochastic approach for the electricity prices. An algorithm named "threshold acceptance" is used to optimize the reservoir operations. The impacts' scale, and the related uncertainties are presented for Mauvoisin, which is a storage-hydropower plant situated in the Swiss Alps, and two generic pure pumped-storage installations, which are assessed with the prices of 17 European electricity markets. The discussion will highlight the key differences between the impacts brought about by the drivers.

  7. Climate change impacts on risks of groundwater pollution by herbicides: a regional scale assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steffens, Karin; Moeys, Julien; Lindström, Bodil; Kreuger, Jenny; Lewan, Elisabet; Jarvis, Nick

    2014-05-01

    Groundwater contributes nearly half of the Swedish drinking water supply, which therefore needs to be protected both under present and future climate conditions. Pesticides are sometimes found in Swedish groundwater in concentrations exceeding the EU-drinking water limit and thus constitute a threat. The aim of this study was to assess the present and future risks of groundwater pollution at the regional scale by currently approved herbicides. We identified representative combinations of major crop types and their specific herbicide usage (product, dose and application timing) based on long-term monitoring data from two agricultural catchments in the South-West of Sweden. All these combinations were simulated with the regional version of the pesticide fate model MACRO (called MACRO-SE) for the periods 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 for a major crop production region in South West Sweden. To represent the uncertainty in future climate data, we applied a five-member ensemble based on different climate model projections downscaled with the RCA3-model (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute). In addition to the direct impacts of changes in the climate, the risks of herbicide leaching in the future will also be affected by likely changes in weed pressure and land use and management practices (e.g. changes in crop rotations and application timings). To assess the relative importance of such factors we performed a preliminary sensitivity analysis which provided us with a hierarchical structure for constructing future herbicide use scenarios for the regional scale model runs. The regional scale analysis gave average concentrations of herbicides leaching to groundwater for a large number of combinations of soils, crops and compounds. The results showed that future scenarios for herbicide use (more autumn-sown crops, more frequent multiple applications on one crop, and a shift from grassland to arable crops such as maize) imply significantly greater risks of herbicide

  8. Assessment of the Technological Changes Impact on the Sustainability of State Security System of Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olexandr Yemelyanov

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Currently, the governments of many countries are facing with a lack of funds for financing programs for social protection of population. Among the causes of this problem, we can indicate the high unemployment rate, which, among other things, is due to implementation of labor-saving technologies. The purpose of this work is to study the impact of technological changes on the sustainability of the state social security system in Ukraine. The general approaches to the assessment of the stability of the state social security system are described. The simulation of the effect of economically efficient technological changes on the company’s income and expenses was carried out. Some patterns of such changes are established. The group of productive technological changes types is presented. The model is developed, and an indicator of the impact estimation of efficiently effective technological changes on the stability of the state social security system is proposed. The analysis of the main indicators of the state social security system functioning of Ukraine is carried out. The dynamics of indicators characterizing the labor market of Ukraine is analyzed. The influence of changes in labor productivity on costs and profits by industries of Ukraine is estimated. The evaluation of the impact of economically efficient technological changes in the industries of Ukraine on the stability of its state social security system is carried out. The different state authorities can use the obtained results for developing measures to manage the sustainability of the state social security system.

  9. Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: a case study in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, P.; Wolf, J.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Schaap, B.F.; Mandryk, M.; Verhagen, J.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2015-01-01

    Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on integrated assessment and farming systems analysis, and account for adaptation at different levels. With a case study for Flevoland, the Netherlands, we illustrate that (1) crop models cannot

  10. Regionalisation of Hydrological Indices to Assess Land-Use Change Impacts in the Tropical Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buytaert, W.; Ochoa Tocachi, B. F.

    2014-12-01

    Andean ecosystems are major water sources for cities and communities located in the Tropical Andes; however, there is a considerable lack of knowledge about their hydrology. Two problems are especially important: (i) the lack of monitoring to assess the impacts of historical land-use and cover change and degradation (LUCCD) at catchment scale, and (ii) the high variability in climatic and hydrological conditions that complicate the evaluation of land management practices. This study analyses how a reliable LUCCD impacts assessment can be performed in an environment of high variability combined with data-scarcity and low-quality records. We use data from participatory hydrological monitoring activities in 20 catchments distributed along the tropical Andes. A set of 46 hydrological indices is calculated and regionalized by relating them to 42 physical catchment properties. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is performed to maximise available data while minimising redundancy in the sets of variables. Hydrological model parameters are constrained by estimated indices, and different behavioural predictions are assembled to provide a generalised response on which we assess LUCCD impacts. Results from this methodology show that the attributed effects of LUCCD in pair-wise catchment comparisons may be overstated or hidden by different sources of uncertainty, including measurement inaccuracies and model structural errors. We propose extrapolation and evaluation in ungauged catchments as a way to regionalize LUCCD predictions and to provide statistically significant conclusions in the Andean region. These estimations may deliver reliable knowledge to evaluate the hydrological impact of different watershed management practices.

  11. Health Impact Assessment (HIA) of Proposed Code Changes Regarding Onsite Sewage Disposal Systems in Suffolk County, NY

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) conducted a Health Impact Assessment (HIA) of proposed code changes regarding residential onsite sewage disposal systems (OSDS) in Suffolk County, New York. Of the approximately 569,000 housing units in Suffolk County, 365,000 are no...

  12. Economic impacts of climate change in the U.S

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neumann, J.

    1997-01-01

    Results of a long-term research project funded by EPRI to study the economic impacts of climate change in the U.S. were described. In 1992, Industrial Economics Inc., began an assessment of the impact of climate change in key natural resource sectors. A wide range of uniform climate scenarios were used to assess sensitivity across different temperature and precipitation gradients. Estimates were developed for the 2060 economy, using dynamic models to understand what was happening along the transient. It was projected that the greatest impact of climate change would be on the agricultural sector because of projected gains in productivity, mainly due to increased precipitation. Similar scenarios were developed for the economic impact of climate change on timber and coastal structures, including the loss of value of coastal property. Key limitations of the study, and future directions in research (e.g. extending the study to health and non-market impacts, including other developed and developing countries) were also outlined

  13. Climate Change Education: Quantitatively Assessing the Impact of a Botanical Garden as an Informal Learning Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellmann, Daniela; Bogner, Franz X.

    2013-01-01

    Although informal learning environments have been studied extensively, ours is one of the first studies to quantitatively assess the impact of learning in botanical gardens on students' cognitive achievement. We observed a group of 10th graders participating in a one-day educational intervention on climate change implemented in a botanical garden.…

  14. Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change threatens human health and well-being in the United States. To address this growing threat, the Interagency Group on Climate Change and Human Health (CCHHG), a working group of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s (USGCRP), has developed this assessment as part of the ongoing efforts of the USGCRP’s National Climate Assessment (NCA) and as called for under the President’s Climate Action Plan. The authors of this assessment have compiled and assessed current research on human health impacts of climate change and summarized the current “state of the science” for a number of key impact areas. This assessment provides a comprehensive update to the most recent detailed technical assessment for the health impacts of climate change, 2008 Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.6 (SAP 4.6) Analyses of the Effects of Global Change on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems (CCSP 2008). It also updates and builds upon the health chapter of the third NCA (Melillo et al. 2014). The lead and coordinating Federal agencies for the USGCRP Climate and Health Assessment are the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), National Institute of Health (NIH), and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Available at https://health2016.globalchange.gov/ The interagency U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) has developed this assessment as part of the ongoing efforts of their National C

  15. Assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abah, Roland Clement; Petja, Brilliant Mareme

    2016-12-01

    Agriculture in the Lower Benue River Basin faces several challenges which threaten the future of agricultural development. This study was an assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin. Through analysis of physical and socioeconomic parameters, the study adapted an impact assessment model to rank potential impacts on agricultural development in the study area. Rainfall intensity seemed to be increasing with a gradual reduction in the number of rainy days. The average discharge at Makurdi hydrological station was 3468.24 cubic metres per second (m 3  s -1 ), and the highest peak flow discharge was 16,400 m 3  s -1 . The daily maximum temperature and annual temperature averages for the study area are gradually rising leading to increased heat stress. Physical and chemical analyses showed that the soils are moderately fertile but require effective application of inorganic and organic fertilisers. The main occupational activities in the study area are agricultural based. The identified potential impacts of climate change on agriculture were categorised under atmospheric carbon dioxides and oxides, rainfall intensity, frequency of floods and droughts, temperature intensity and variation, heat stress, surface water trends, and soil quality and fertility. The identified potential impacts related to population dynamics on agriculture were categorised under population growth, rural-urban migration, household income and infectious diseases and HIV and AIDS. Community-level mitigation strategies were proffered. Policy makers are advised to promote irrigation farming, support farmers with farm inputs and credit facilities and establish active agricultural extension services to support the sustainable development of agriculture.

  16. Economic impacts of climate change in Australia: framework and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ford, Melanie

    2007-01-01

    Full text: There is growing interest in understanding the potential impacts of climate change in Australia, and especially the economic impacts of 'inaction'. In this study, a preliminary analysis of the possible economic impacts of future climate change in Australia is undertaken using ABARE's general equilibrium model of the global economy, GTEM. In order to understand the potential economy-wide economic impacts, the broad climatic trends that Australia is likely to experience over the next several decades are canvassed and the potential economic and non-economic impacts on key risk areas, such as water resources, agriculture and forests, health, industry and human settlements and the ecosystems, are identified. A more detailed analysis of the economic impacts of climate change are undertaken by developing two case studies. In the first case study, the economic impact of climate change and reduced water availability on the agricultural sector is assessed in the Murray-Darling Basin. In the second case study, the sectoral economic impacts on the Australian resources sector of a projected decline in global economic activity due to climate change is analysed. The key areas of required development to more fully understand the economy-wide and sectoral impacts of climate change are also discussed including issues associated with estimating both non-market and market impacts. Finally, an analytical framework for undertaking integrated assessment of climate change impacts domestically and globally is developed

  17. Assessing corporate project impacts in changeable contexts: A human rights perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salcito, Kendyl, E-mail: kendyl.salcito@unibas.ch [Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, P.O. Box, CH-4002 Basel (Switzerland); University of Basel, P.O. Box, CH-4003 Basel (Switzerland); NomoGaia, 1900 Wazee Street, Suite 303, Denver, CO 80202 (United States); NewFields, LLC, Denver, CO 80202 (United States); Singer, Burton H., E-mail: bhsinger@epi.ufl.edu [Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32610 (United States); Krieger, Gary R., E-mail: gkrieger@newfields.com [NewFields, LLC, Denver, CO 80202 (United States); Weiss, Mitchell G., E-mail: mitchell-g.weiss@unibas.ch [Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, P.O. Box, CH-4002 Basel (Switzerland); University of Basel, P.O. Box, CH-4003 Basel (Switzerland); Wielga, Mark, E-mail: wielga@nomogaia.org [NomoGaia, 1900 Wazee Street, Suite 303, Denver, CO 80202 (United States); NewFields, LLC, Denver, CO 80202 (United States); Utzinger, Jürg, E-mail: juerg.utzinger@unibas.ch [Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, P.O. Box, CH-4002 Basel (Switzerland); University of Basel, P.O. Box, CH-4003 Basel (Switzerland)

    2014-07-01

    Project-level impact assessment was originally conceived as a snapshot taken in advance of project implementation, contrasting current conditions with a likely future scenario involving a variety of predicted impacts. Current best practice guidance has encouraged a shift towards longitudinal assessments from the pre-project stage through the implementation and operating phases. Experience and study show, however, that assessment of infrastructure-intensive projects rarely endures past the project's construction phase. Negative consequences for environmental, social and health outcomes have been documented. Such consequences clarify the pressing need for longitudinal assessment in each of these domains, with human rights impact assessment (HRIA) as an umbrella over, and critical augmentation of, environmental, social and health assessments. Project impacts on human rights are more closely linked to political, economic and other factors beyond immediate effects of a company's policy and action throughout the project lifecycle. Delineating these processes requires an adequate framework, with strategies for collecting longitudinal data, protocols that provide core information for impact assessment and guidance for adaptive mitigation strategies as project-related effects change over time. This article presents general principles for the design and implementation of sustained, longitudinal HRIA, based on experience assessing and responding to human rights impact in a uranium mining project in Malawi. The case study demonstrates the value of longitudinal assessment both for limiting corporate risk and improving human welfare. - Graphical abstract: Assessing changes in human rights condition as affected by both project and context, over time. - Highlights: • Corporate capital projects affect human rights in myriad ways. • Ongoing, longitudinal impact assessment techniques are needed. • We present an approach for conducting longitudinal human rights impact

  18. Assessing corporate project impacts in changeable contexts: A human rights perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salcito, Kendyl; Singer, Burton H.; Krieger, Gary R.; Weiss, Mitchell G.; Wielga, Mark; Utzinger, Jürg

    2014-01-01

    Project-level impact assessment was originally conceived as a snapshot taken in advance of project implementation, contrasting current conditions with a likely future scenario involving a variety of predicted impacts. Current best practice guidance has encouraged a shift towards longitudinal assessments from the pre-project stage through the implementation and operating phases. Experience and study show, however, that assessment of infrastructure-intensive projects rarely endures past the project's construction phase. Negative consequences for environmental, social and health outcomes have been documented. Such consequences clarify the pressing need for longitudinal assessment in each of these domains, with human rights impact assessment (HRIA) as an umbrella over, and critical augmentation of, environmental, social and health assessments. Project impacts on human rights are more closely linked to political, economic and other factors beyond immediate effects of a company's policy and action throughout the project lifecycle. Delineating these processes requires an adequate framework, with strategies for collecting longitudinal data, protocols that provide core information for impact assessment and guidance for adaptive mitigation strategies as project-related effects change over time. This article presents general principles for the design and implementation of sustained, longitudinal HRIA, based on experience assessing and responding to human rights impact in a uranium mining project in Malawi. The case study demonstrates the value of longitudinal assessment both for limiting corporate risk and improving human welfare. - Graphical abstract: Assessing changes in human rights condition as affected by both project and context, over time. - Highlights: • Corporate capital projects affect human rights in myriad ways. • Ongoing, longitudinal impact assessment techniques are needed. • We present an approach for conducting longitudinal human rights impact assessment

  19. Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Land-Water-Ecosystem Quality in Polar and Mountainous Regions: A New Interregional Project (INT5153)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dercon, Gerd [Soil and Water Management and Crop Nutrition Subprogramme, Joint FAO/IAEA Division of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture, IAEA, Seibersdorf (Austria); Gerardo-Abaya, Jane [Division for Asia and the Pacific Section 2, Department of Technical Cooperation, IAEA, Vienna (Austria); Mavlyudov, Bulat [Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation); others, and

    2014-07-15

    The INT5153 project aims to improve the understanding of the impact of climate change on fragile polar and mountainous ecosystems on both a local and global scale for their better management and conservation. Seven core and five related benchmark sites have been selected from different global regions for specific assessments of the impact of climate change with the following expected outcomes and outputs: Outcomes: • Improved understanding of the impact of climate change on the cryosphere in polar and mountainous ecosystems and its effects on landwater- ecosystem quality at both local and global scales. • Recommendations for improvement of regional policies for soil and agricultural water management, conservation, and environmental protection in polar and mountainous regions. Outputs: • Specific strategies to minimize the adverse effects of, and adapt to, reduced seasonal snow and glacier covered areas on land-water-ecosystem quality in polar and mountain regions across the world. • Enhanced interregional network of laboratories and institutions competent in the assessment of climate change impacts on the cryosphere and land-water-ecosystem quality, using isotopic and nuclear techniques. • Increased number of young scientists trained in the use of isotope and nuclear techniques to assess the impact of climate change on the cryosphere and land-water-ecosystem quality in polar and mountainous ecosystems. • Platform/database with global access for continuing work and monitoring of impact of climate change on fragile polar and mountainous ecosystems at local and global scales, as well as for communicating findings to policy makers and communities. • Improved understanding of the effects of climate change disseminated through appropriate publications, policy briefs, and through a dedicated internet platform. • Methodologies and protocols for investigations in specific ecosystems and conservation/adaptation measures for agriculture areas.

  20. Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Land-Water-Ecosystem Quality in Polar and Mountainous Regions: A New Interregional Project (INT5153)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dercon, Gerd; Gerardo-Abaya, Jane; Mavlyudov, Bulat

    2014-01-01

    The INT5153 project aims to improve the understanding of the impact of climate change on fragile polar and mountainous ecosystems on both a local and global scale for their better management and conservation. Seven core and five related benchmark sites have been selected from different global regions for specific assessments of the impact of climate change with the following expected outcomes and outputs: Outcomes: • Improved understanding of the impact of climate change on the cryosphere in polar and mountainous ecosystems and its effects on landwater- ecosystem quality at both local and global scales. • Recommendations for improvement of regional policies for soil and agricultural water management, conservation, and environmental protection in polar and mountainous regions. Outputs: • Specific strategies to minimize the adverse effects of, and adapt to, reduced seasonal snow and glacier covered areas on land-water-ecosystem quality in polar and mountain regions across the world. • Enhanced interregional network of laboratories and institutions competent in the assessment of climate change impacts on the cryosphere and land-water-ecosystem quality, using isotopic and nuclear techniques. • Increased number of young scientists trained in the use of isotope and nuclear techniques to assess the impact of climate change on the cryosphere and land-water-ecosystem quality in polar and mountainous ecosystems. • Platform/database with global access for continuing work and monitoring of impact of climate change on fragile polar and mountainous ecosystems at local and global scales, as well as for communicating findings to policy makers and communities. • Improved understanding of the effects of climate change disseminated through appropriate publications, policy briefs, and through a dedicated internet platform. • Methodologies and protocols for investigations in specific ecosystems and conservation/adaptation measures for agriculture areas

  1. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Antle, John

    2015-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  2. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Antle, J. M.; Elliott, J. W.

    2015-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIP's community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPs/SSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate change's impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIP's 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  3. Mesh climate change data of Japan ver. 2 for climate change impact assessments under IPCC SRES A1B and A2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okada, M.; Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Yokozawa, M.

    2009-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in 2007 and stated that recent climate change and variation are induced by increases in the atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHG) concentration due to anthropogenic activities. The report includes the results of impact assessments on a wide range of sectors. These assessments have been conducted based on future climate projections, which refer to aspects of the future climate evaluated by Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs). The projection data used in the AR4 are archived under the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) promoted by the U.S. Department of Energy. We interpolated the projection data around Japan and constructed a dataset entitled the 'Mesh climate change data of Japan Ver. 2' for the climate change impact study. Nine projections performed by seven models under the A1B and A2 of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) were implemented for the dataset. They consist of mesh data with a size of 7.5 min in longitude and 5.0 min in latitude, i.e. approximately 10 X 10 km (45 sec in longitude and 30 sec in latitude, approximately 1 x 1 km, for one high-resolution model). The dataset includes five climatic elements, i.e. the daily mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures, daily total precipitation, and daily accumulated shortwave radiation for three periods, 1981-2000, 2046-2065, and 2081-2100. This article describes the details concerning the construction and characteristics of the data

  4. Climate change impact assessment on urban rainfall extremes and urban drainage: Methods and shortcomings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, P.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Olsson, J.

    2012-01-01

    Cities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to flooding because of rapid urbanization, installation of complex infrastructure, and changes in the precipitation patterns caused by anthropogenic climate change. The present paper provides a critical review of the current state-of-the-art methods...... for assessing the impacts of climate change on precipitation at the urban catchment scale. Downscaling of results from global circulation models or regional climate models to urban catchment scales are needed because these models are not able to describe accurately the rainfall process at suitable high temporal...... and spatial resolution for urban drainage studies. The downscaled rainfall results are however highly uncertain, depending on the models and downscaling methods considered. This uncertainty becomes more challenging for rainfall extremes since the properties of these extremes do not automatically reflect those...

  5. Climate change impacts in Northern Canada: Assessing our current knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gill, M.J.; Eamer, J. [Environment Canada, Environmental Conservation Branch, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Munier, A.; Ogden, A. [Yukon College, Northern Climate ExChange, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Duerden, F. [Ryerson University, School of Applied Geography, Toronto, ON (Canada); Hik, D. [Alberta Univ., Dept. of Biological Sciences, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Fox, S.; Riedlinger, D.; Thorpe, N. [GeoNorth Limited, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Johnson, I.; Jensen, M. [Legend Seekers Anthropological Research, Whitehorse, YT (Canada)

    2001-07-01

    A research project by the Northern Climate ExChange at Yukon College, undertaken to bring together into one document all relevant information that will help facilitate the identification of priorities for climate change research, monitoring, technological development and policy development in Canada's North, is described. In addition to the report, project deliverables also include a database of climate change information sources and a database of northern climate change contacts. The review includes scientific, local and Traditional Knowledge sources relating to climate change about each of seventeen natural and human systems (e.g. boreal forests, community health, mining, etc.), synthesized into a table for each system, with projected environmental changes crossed in matrix format with system components. Each cross-relationship was given a ranking; supporting information was included, based on the current state of knowledge of that relationship. In general, current information concerning northern systems, predicted climate changes and the impacts of those changes on northern systems is poor. However, much information does exist and the gap analysis revealed a number of general patterns relating to this information. Clearly, more research is required throughout northern Canada, but in particular, in the eastern Arctic, to provide a greater understanding of the implications of climate changes across the North, and to aid in the development of finer-scale, regional circulation models resulting in better predictive capacity of climate change and its impacts on northern areas.

  6. A framework for the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts on water-related activities at the basin scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Anghileri

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available While quantitative assessment of the climate change impact on hydrology at the basin scale is quite addressed in the literature, extension of quantitative analysis to impact on the ecological, economic and social sphere is still limited, although well recognized as a key issue to support water resource planning and promote public participation. In this paper we propose a framework for assessing climate change impact on water-related activities at the basin scale. The specific features of our approach are that: (i the impact quantification is based on a set of performance indicators defined together with the stakeholders, thus explicitly taking into account the water-users preferences; (ii the management policies are obtained by optimal control techniques, linking stakeholder expectations and decision-making; (iii the multi-objective nature of the management problem is fully preserved by simulating a set of Pareto-optimal management policies, which allows for evaluating not only variations in the indicator values but also tradeoffs among conflicting objectives. The framework is demonstrated by application to a real world case study, Lake Como basin (Italy. We show that the most conflicting water-related activities within the basin (i.e. hydropower production and agriculture are likely to be negatively impacted by climate change. We discuss the robustness of the estimated impacts to the climate natural variability and the approximations in modeling the physical system and the socio-economic system, and perform an uncertainty analysis of several sources of uncertainty. We demonstrate that the contribution of natural climate uncertainty is rather remarkable and that, among different modelling uncertainty sources, the one from climate modeling is very significant.

  7. Assessing climate change impacts on fresh water resources of the Athabasca River Basin, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, Narayan Kumar; Du, Xinzhong; Wang, Junye

    2017-12-01

    Proper management of blue and green water resources is important for the sustainability of ecosystems and for the socio-economic development of river basins such as the Athabasca River Basin (ARB) in Canada. For this reason, quantifying climate change impacts on these water resources at a finer temporal and spatial scale is often necessary. In this study, we used a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess climate change impacts on fresh water resources, focusing explicitly on the impacts to both blue and green water. We used future climate data generated by the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) with a spatial resolution of 0.22°×0.22° (~25km) for two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Results projected the climate of the ARB to be wetter by 21-34% and warmer by 2-5.4°C on an annual time scale. Consequently, the annual average blue and green water flow was projected to increase by 16-54% and 11-34%, respectively, depending on the region, future period, and emission scenario. Furthermore, the annual average green water storage at the boreal region was expected to increase by 30%, while the storage was projected to remain fairly stable or decrease in other regions, especially during the summer season. On average, the fresh water resources in the ARB are likely to increase in the future. However, evidence of temporal and spatial heterogeneity could pose many future challenges to water resource planners and managers. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Impact assessment of climate change on tourism in the Pacific small islands based on the database of long-term high-resolution climate ensemble experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, S.; Utsumi, N.; Take, M.; Iida, A.

    2016-12-01

    This study aims to develop a new approach to assess the impact of climate change on the small oceanic islands in the Pacific. In the new approach, the change of the probabilities of various situations was projected with considering the spread of projection derived from ensemble simulations, instead of projecting the most probable situation. The database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) is a database of long-term high-resolution climate ensemble experiments, which has the results of 100 ensemble simulations. We utilized the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF), which was (a long-term and high-resolution database) composed of results of 100 ensemble experiments. A new methodology, Multi Threshold Ensemble Assessment (MTEA), was developed using the d4PDF in order to assess the impact of climate change. We focused on the impact of climate change on tourism because it has played an important role in the economy of the Pacific Islands. The Yaeyama Region, one of the tourist destinations in Okinawa, Japan, was selected as the case study site. Two kinds of impact were assessed: change in probability of extreme climate phenomena and tourist satisfaction associated with weather. The database of long-term high-resolution climate ensemble experiments and the questionnaire survey conducted by a local government were used for the assessment. The result indicated that the strength of extreme events would be increased, whereas the probability of occurrence would be decreased. This change should result in increase of the number of clear days and it could contribute to improve the tourist satisfaction.

  9. Impacts of climate change on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services: technical input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staudinger, Michelle D.; Grimm, Nancy B.; Staudt, Amanda; Carter, Shawn L.; Stuart, F. Stuart; Kareiva, Peter; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Stein, Bruce A.

    2012-01-01

    Ecosystems, and the biodiversity and services they support, are intrinsically dependent on climate. During the twentieth century, climate change has had documented impacts on ecological systems, and impacts are expected to increase as climate change continues and perhaps even accelerates. This technical input to the National Climate Assessment synthesizes our scientific understanding of the way climate change is affecting biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and what strategies might be employed to decrease current and future risks. Building on past assessments of how climate change and other stressors are affecting ecosystems in the United States and around the world, we approach the subject from several different perspectives. First, we review the observed and projected impacts on biodiversity, with a focus on genes, species, and assemblages of species. Next, we examine how climate change is affecting ecosystem structural elements—such as biomass, architecture, and heterogeneity—and functions—specifically, as related to the fluxes of energy and matter. People experience climate change impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems as changes in ecosystem services; people depend on ecosystems for resources that are harvested, their role in regulating the movement of materials and disturbances, and their recreational, cultural, and aesthetic value. Thus, we review newly emerging research to determine how human activities and a changing climate are likely to alter the delivery of these ecosystem services. This technical input also examines two cross-cutting topics. First, we recognize that climate change is happening against the backdrop of a wide range of other environmental and anthropogenic stressors, many of which have caused dramatic ecosystem degradation already. This broader range of stressors interacts with climate change, and complicates our abilities to predict and manage the impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and the services they support. The

  10. Opportunities and challenges in assessing climate change impacts on wind energy-a critical comparison of wind speed projections in California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmussen, D J; Holloway, T; Nemet, G F

    2011-01-01

    Future climate change is expected to alter the spatial and temporal distribution of surface wind speeds (SWS), with associated impacts on electricity generation from wind energy. However, the predictions for the direction and magnitude of these changes hinge critically on the assessment methods used. Many climate change impact analyses, including those focused on wind energy, use individual climate models and/or statistical downscaling methods rooted in historical observations. Such studies may individually suggest an unrealistically high level of scientific certainty due to the absence of competing projections (over the same region, time period, etc). A new public data archive, the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), allows for a more comprehensive perspective on regional climate change impacts, here applied to three wind farm sites in California. We employ NARCCAP regional climate model data to estimate changes in SWS expected to occur in the mid-21st century at three wind farm regions: Altamont Pass, San Gorgonio Pass, and Tehachapi Pass. We examined trends in SWS magnitude and frequency using three different global/regional model pairs, focused on model evaluation, seasonal cycle, and long-term trends. Our results, while specific to California, highlight the opportunities and limitations in NARCCAP and other publicly available meteorological data sets for energy analysis, and the importance of using multiple models for climate change impact assessment. Although spatial patterns in current wind conditions agree fairly well among models and with NARR (North American Regional Reanalysis) data, results vary widely at our three sites of interest. This poor performance and model disagreement may be explained by complex topography, limited model resolution, and differences in model physics. Spatial trends and site-specific estimates of annual average changes (1980-2000 versus 2051-71) also differed widely across models. All models

  11. Probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts on durum wheat in the Mediterranean region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Ferrise

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the availability of multi-model ensemble prediction methods has permitted a shift from a scenario-based approach to a risk-based approach in assessing the effects of climate change. This provides more useful information to decision-makers who need probability estimates to assess the seriousness of the projected impacts.

    In this study, a probabilistic framework for evaluating the risk of durum wheat yield shortfall over the Mediterranean Basin has been exploited. An artificial neural network, trained to emulate the outputs of a process-based crop growth model, has been adopted to create yield response surfaces which are then overlaid with probabilistic projections of future temperature and precipitation changes in order to estimate probabilistic projections of future yields. The risk is calculated as the relative frequency of projected yields below a selected threshold.

    In contrast to previous studies, which suggest that the beneficial effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration over the next few decades would outweigh the detrimental effects of the early stages of climatic warming and drying, the results of this study are of greater concern.

  12. Assessment of climate change impact on hydrological extremes in two source regions of the Nile River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. T. Taye

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The potential impact of climate change was investigated on the hydrological extremes of Nyando River and Lake Tana catchments, which are located in two source regions of the Nile River basin. Climate change scenarios were developed for rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (ETo, considering 17 General Circulation Model (GCM simulations to better understand the range of possible future change. They were constructed by transferring the extracted climate change signals to the observed series using a frequency perturbation downscaling approach, which accounts for the changes in rainfall extremes. Projected changes under two future SRES emission scenarios A1B and B1 for the 2050s were considered. Two conceptual hydrological models were calibrated and used for the impact assessment. Their difference in simulating the flows under future climate scenarios was also investigated.

    The results reveal increasing mean runoff and extreme peak flows for Nyando catchment for the 2050s while unclear trend is observed for Lake Tana catchment for mean volumes and high/low flows. The hydrological models for Lake Tana catchment, however, performed better in simulating the hydrological regimes than for Nyando, which obviously also induces a difference in the reliability of the extreme future projections for both catchments. The unclear impact result for Lake Tana catchment implies that the GCM uncertainty is more important for explaining the unclear trend than the hydrological models uncertainty. Nevertheless, to have a better understanding of future impact, hydrological models need to be verified for their credibility of simulating extreme flows.

  13. Climate Change Impacts on Human Health Due to Changes in Ambient Ozone Concentrations (External Review Draft)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report uses results from a previous report titled Assessment of the Impacts of Global Change on Regional U.S. Air Quality: A Synthesis of Climate Change Impacts on Ground-Level Ozone, a number of high-resolution, spatially explicit population projections developed ...

  14. Climate impacts of bioenergy: Inclusion of carbon cycle and albedo dynamics in life cycle impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bright, Ryan M.; Cherubini, Francesco; Strømman, Anders H.

    2012-01-01

    Life cycle assessment (LCA) can be an invaluable tool for the structured environmental impact assessment of bioenergy product systems. However, the methodology's static temporal and spatial scope combined with its restriction to emission-based metrics in life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) inhibits its effectiveness at assessing climate change impacts that stem from dynamic land surface–atmosphere interactions inherent to all biomass-based product systems. In this paper, we focus on two dynamic issues related to anthropogenic land use that can significantly influence the climate impacts of bioenergy systems: i) temporary changes to the terrestrial carbon cycle; and ii) temporary changes in land surface albedo—and illustrate how they can be integrated within the LCA framework. In the context of active land use management for bioenergy, we discuss these dynamics and their relevancy and outline the methodological steps that would be required to derive case-specific biogenic CO 2 and albedo change characterization factors for inclusion in LCIA. We demonstrate our concepts and metrics with application to a case study of transportation biofuel sourced from managed boreal forest biomass in northern Europe. We derive GWP indices for three land management cases of varying site productivities to illustrate the importance and need to consider case- or region-specific characterization factors for bioenergy product systems. Uncertainties and limitations of the proposed metrics are discussed. - Highlights: ► A method for including temporary surface albedo and carbon cycle changes in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) is elaborated. ► Concepts are applied to a single bioenergy case whereby a range of feedstock productivities are shown to influence results. ► Results imply that case- and site-specific characterization factors can be essential for a more informed impact assessment. ► Uncertainties and limitations of the proposed methodologies are elaborated.

  15. Conceptual Model of Climate Change Impacts at LANL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dewart, Jean Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-17

    Goal 9 of the LANL FY15 Site Sustainability Plan (LANL 2014a) addresses Climate Change Adaptation. As part of Goal 9, the plan reviews many of the individual programs the Laboratory has initiated over the past 20 years to address climate change impacts to LANL (e.g. Wildland Fire Management Plan, Forest Management Plan, etc.). However, at that time, LANL did not yet have a comprehensive approach to climate change adaptation. To fill this gap, the FY15 Work Plan for the LANL Long Term Strategy for Environmental Stewardship and Sustainability (LANL 2015) included a goal of (1) establishing a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts at LANL and (2) establishing specific climate change indices to measure climate change and impacts at Los Alamos. Establishing a conceptual model of climate change impacts will demonstrate that the Laboratory is addressing climate change impacts in a comprehensive manner. This paper fulfills the requirement of goal 1. The establishment of specific indices of climate change at Los Alamos (goal 2), will improve our ability to determine climate change vulnerabilities and assess risk. Future work will include prioritizing risks, evaluating options/technologies/costs, and where appropriate, taking actions. To develop a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts, we selected the framework provided in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Resilience Toolkit (http://toolkit.climate.gov/).

  16. Impact of Climate Change on high and low flows across Great Britain: a temporal analysis and uncertainty assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beevers, Lindsay; Collet, Lila

    2017-04-01

    Over the past decade there have been significant challenges to water management posed by both floods and droughts. In the UK, since 2000 flooding has caused over £5Bn worth of damage, and direct costs from the recent drought (2011-12) are estimated to be between £70-165M, arising from impacts on public and industrial water supply. Projections of future climate change suggest an increase in temperature and precipitation trends which may exacerbate the frequency and severity of such hazards, but there is significant uncertainty associated with these projections. It thus becomes urgent to assess the possible impact of these changes on extreme flows and evaluate the uncertainties related to these projections, particularly changes in the seasonality of such hazards. This paper aims to assess the changes in seasonality of peak and low flows across Great Britain as a result of climate change. It is based on the Future Flow database; an 11-member ensemble of transient river flow projections from January 1951 to December 2098. We analyse the daily river flow over the baseline (1961-1990) and the 2080s (2069-2098) for 281 gauging stations. For each ensemble member, annual maxima (AMAX) and minima (AMIN) are extracted for both time periods for each gauging station. The month of the year the AMAX and AMIN occur respectively are recorded for each of the 30 years in the past and the future time periods. The uncertainty of the AMAX and AMIN occurrence temporally (monthly) is assessed across the 11 ensemble members, as well as the changes to this temporal signal between the baseline and the 2080s. Ultimately, this work gives a national picture (spatially) of high and low flows occurrence temporally and allows the assessment of possible changes in hydrological dynamics as a result of climate change in a statistical framework. Results will quantify the uncertainty related to the Climate Model parameters which are cascaded into the modelling chain. This study highlights the issues

  17. Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Neofotis, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Human-influenced climate change is an observed phenomenon affecting physical and biological systems across the globe. The majority of observed impacts are related to temperature changes and are located in the northern high- and midlatitudes. However, new evidence is emerging that demonstrates that impacts are related to precipitation changes as well as temperature, and that climate change is impacting systems and sectors beyond the Northern Hemisphere. In this paper, we highlight some of this new evidence-focusing on regions and sectors that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) noted as under-represented-in the context of observed climate change impacts, direct and indirect drivers of change (including carbon dioxide itself), and methods of detection. We also present methods and studies attributing observed impacts to anthropogenic forcing. We argue that the expansion of methods of detection (in terms of a broader array of climate variables and data sources, inclusion of the major modes of climate variability, and incorporation of other drivers of change) is key to discerning the climate sensitivities of sectors and systems in regions where the impacts of climate change currently remain elusive. Attributing such changes to human forcing of the climate system, where possible, is important for development of effective mitigation and adaptation. Current challenges in documenting adaptation and the role of indigenous knowledge in detection and attribution are described.

  18. Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles; hide

    2015-01-01

    The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-series of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developed, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for agricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have reduced the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the cross-cutting themes in AgMIP's work

  19. Regional analysis and environmental impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parzyck, D.C.; Brocksen, R.W.; Emanuel, W.R.

    1976-01-01

    This paper presents a number of techniques that can be used to assess environmental impacts on a regional scale. Regional methodologies have been developed which examine impacts upon aquatic and terrestrial biota in regions through consideration of changes in land use, land cover, air quality, water resource use, and water quality. Techniques used to assess long-range atmospheric transport, water resources, effects on sensitive forest and animal species, and impacts on man are presented in this paper, along with an optimization approach which serves to integrate the analytical techniques in an overall assessment framework. A brief review of the research approach and certain modeling techniques used within one regional studies program is provided. While it is not an all inclusive report on regional analyses, it does present an illustration of the types of analyses that can be performed on a regional scale

  20. Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2013-04-01

    Future climate may have a profound effect on the freshwater cycle, which must be taken into consideration by water management for future planning. Developments in the future climate are nevertheless uncertain, thus adding to the challenge of managing an uncertain system. To support the water managers at various levels in Denmark, the national water resources model (DK-model) (Højberg et al., 2012; Stisen et al., 2012) was used to propagate future climate to hydrological response under considerations of the main sources of uncertainty. The DK-model is a physically based and fully distributed model constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE/MIKE11 model system describing groundwater and surface water systems and the interaction between the domains. The model has been constructed for the entire 43.000 km2 land area of Denmark only excluding minor islands. Future climate from General Circulation Models (GCM) was downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCM) by a distribution-based scaling method (Seaby et al., 2012). The same dataset was used to train all combinations of GCM-RCMs and they were found to represent the mean and variance at the seasonal basis equally well. Changes in hydrological response were computed by comparing the short term development from the period 1990 - 2010 to 2021 - 2050, which is the time span relevant for water management. To account for uncertainty in future climate predictions, hydrological response from the DK-model using nine combinations of GCMs and RCMs was analysed for two catchments representing the various hydrogeological conditions in Denmark. Three GCM-RCM combinations displaying high, mean and low future impacts were selected as representative climate models for which climate impact studies were carried out for the entire country. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity analysis and was generally found to be of less importance compared to the uncertainty spanned by the GCM-RCM combinations. Analysis of the simulations

  1. Land use allocation model considering climate change impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D. K.; Yoon, E. J.; Song, Y. I.

    2017-12-01

    In Korea, climate change adaptation plans are being developed for each administrative district based on impact assessments constructed in various fields. This climate change impact assessments are superimposed on the actual space, which causes problems in land use allocation because the spatial distribution of individual impacts may be different each other. This implies that trade-offs between climate change impacts can occur depending on the composition of land use. Moreover, the actual space is complexly intertwined with various factors such as required area, legal regulations, and socioeconomic values, so land use allocation in consideration of climate change can be very difficult problem to solve (Liu et al. 2012; Porta et al. 2013).Optimization techniques can generate a sufficiently good alternatives for land use allocation at the strategic level if only the fitness function of relationship between impact and land use composition are derived. It has also been noted that land use optimization model is more effective than the scenario-based prediction model in achieving the objectives for problem solving (Zhang et al. 2014). Therefore in this study, we developed a quantitative tool, MOGA (Multi Objective Genetic Algorithm), which can generate a comprehensive land use allocations considering various climate change impacts, and apply it to the Gangwon-do in Korea. Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are the most popular optimization technique to address multi-objective in land use allocation. Also, it allows for immediate feedback to stake holders because it can run a number of experiments with different parameter values. And it is expected that land use decision makers and planners can formulate a detailed spatial plan or perform additional analysis based on the result of optimization model. Acknowledgments: This work was supported by the Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) as "Climate Change Correspondence Program (Project number: 2014001310006)"

  2. Focus: Assessing the regional impacts of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, Mingko

    1992-01-01

    Five studies are presented which assess the impacts of global warming on physical, economic, and social systems in Canada. A study on the use of climatic change scenarios to estimate ecoclimatic impacts was carried out. These scenarios may include synthetic scenarios produced from historical data, global climate model (GCM) simulations, and hybrid scenarios. The advantages and drawbacks of various scenarios are discussed along with the criteria for selecting impact assessment models. An examination of water resources in the Great Lakes and the Saskatchewan River subbasin uses case studies of two areas that have experienced wide hydrological variations due to climatic variability in order to determine the impacts of global warming scenarios on net basin supply. Problems of developing regional models are discussed and results of projected changes in net basin supply are presented for GCM-based simulations and hypothetical warming scenarios. A study of the impacts of climate warming on transportation and the regional economy in northern Canada uses stochastic models to provide examples of how Mackenzie River barge traffic will be affected. The economic impacts of the resultant lengthened shipping season are outlined under three scenarios. The implications of climatic change on Ontario agriculture are assessed according to GCM scenarios. Results are presented for crop yields and production as well as land resource suitability. Finally, sociocultural implications of global warming on the Arctic and the Inuit are summarized, with reference to a past warming episode occurring around the year 1000. 45 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs

  3. Assessing the Impact of Population Growth, Climate Change, and Land Use Change on Water Resources in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, N.; Cherkauer, K. A.

    2014-12-01

    India is poised to become the most populous country in the world by 2019 and reach a population of over 2 billion by 2050 based on current growth rates. It is also a region which will be under severe socio-economic and environmental stress if mitigation efforts are not adapted. In the past 10 years the population of India has grown by an average rate of 17 million people per year. In addition to unprecedented population growth, rapid urbanization and industrialization are straining the overburdened environmental system. This rapid growth in population, urbanization and industrialized will result in increased demand for food, requiring expansion of agricultural resources. Since total agricultural land in India has been relatively constant over the past 10 years the demand for additional food has to be partly met by enhanced production on existing land. Arable land in India has declined by around 3% according to FAOSTAT while the total agricultural area under irrigation has increased by about 9% thus further straining its water resources. In addition projections for future climate indicate that India is one of the regions where water resources are expected to be negatively impacted. Total agriculture water withdrawal in India increased by approximately 18 % from 2000-2010 while the total per capita water withdrawal increased by over 9% from 2000-2010. Total freshwater withdrawal as percentage of renewable water resources was around 40% in 2010. In addition, recent mandates of biofuel policies in India are also expected to impact its water resources. The combined impact of these various factors on future water availability in India could be one of the most severe globally due its unprecedented increase in population, food production and industrialization. In this study we assess the impact of land use and climate change on water resources over southern India in the face of a growing population and interest in development of national biofuel supplies. We use

  4. Assessing the impacts of global change on water quantity and quality

    OpenAIRE

    Malsy, Marcus

    2016-01-01

    Water resources in the semi-arid to arid areas of Central Asia are often limited by low precipitation, and hence vulnerable to impacts of global change, i.e. socio-economic development and climate change. Both, socio-economic development and climate change are very likely causing significant changes as water resources are affected by two main effects: Firstly, growing population and industrial activities in the region raise the pressure on water resources due to increasing water abstractions....

  5. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua

    2015-01-01

    The combination of a warming Earth and an increasing population will likely strain the world's food systems in the coming decades. Experts involved with the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) focus on quantifying the changes through time. AgMIP, a program begun in 2010, involves about 800 climate scientists, economists, nutritionists, information technology specialists, and crop and livestock experts. In mid-September 2015, the Aspen Global Change Institute convened an AgMIP workshop to draft plans and protocols for assessing global- and regional-scale modeling of crops, livestock, economics, and nutrition across major agricultural regions worldwide. The goal of this Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments (CGRA) project is to characterize climate effects on large- and small-scale farming systems.

  6. Vulnerability Assessment of Environmental and Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Al Jabal Al Akhdar, Sultanate of Oman

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Saif Al-Kalbani

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and its consequences present one of the most important threats to water resources systems which are vulnerable to such changes due to their limited adaptive capacity. Water resources in arid mountain regions, such as Al Jabal Al Akhdar; northern Sultanate of Oman, are vulnerable to the potential adverse impacts of environmental and climate change. Besides climatic change, current demographic trends, economic development and related land use changes are exerting pressures and have direct impacts on increasing demands for water resources and their vulnerability. In this study, vulnerability assessment was carried out using guidelines prepared by United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP and Peking University to evaluate four components of the water resource system: water resources stress, water development pressure, ecological health, and management capacity. The calculated vulnerability index (VI was high, indicating that the water resources are experiencing levels of stress. Ecosystem deterioration was the dominant parameter and management capacity was the dominant category driving the vulnerability on water resources. The vulnerability assessment will support policy and decision makers in evaluating options to modify existing policies. It will also help in developing long-term strategic plans for climate change mitigation and adaptation measures and implement effective policies for sustainable water resources management, and therefore the sustenance of human wellbeing in the region.

  7. Assessing species vulnerability to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacifici, Michela; Foden, Wendy B.; Visconti, Piero; Watson, James E. M.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Kovacs, Kit M.; Scheffers, Brett R.; Hole, David G.; Martin, Tara G.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Corlett, Richard T.; Huntley, Brian; Bickford, David; Carr, Jamie A.; Hoffmann, Ary A.; Midgley, Guy F.; Pearce-Kelly, Paul; Pearson, Richard G.; Williams, Stephen E.; Willis, Stephen G.; Young, Bruce; Rondinini, Carlo

    2015-03-01

    The effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly well documented, and many methods have been developed to assess species' vulnerability to climatic changes, both ongoing and projected in the coming decades. To minimize global biodiversity losses, conservationists need to identify those species that are likely to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this Review, we summarize different currencies used for assessing species' climate change vulnerability. We describe three main approaches used to derive these currencies (correlative, mechanistic and trait-based), and their associated data requirements, spatial and temporal scales of application and modelling methods. We identify strengths and weaknesses of the approaches and highlight the sources of uncertainty inherent in each method that limit projection reliability. Finally, we provide guidance for conservation practitioners in selecting the most appropriate approach(es) for their planning needs and highlight priority areas for further assessments.

  8. A global and spatially explicit assessment of climate change impacts on crop production and consumptive water use.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junguo Liu

    Full Text Available Food security and water scarcity have become two major concerns for future human's sustainable development, particularly in the context of climate change. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on the production and water use of major cereal crops on a global scale with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes for the 2030s (short term and the 2090s (long term, respectively. Our findings show that impact uncertainties are higher on larger spatial scales (e.g., global and continental but lower on smaller spatial scales (e.g., national and grid cell. Such patterns allow decision makers and investors to take adaptive measures without being puzzled by a highly uncertain future at the global level. Short-term gains in crop production from climate change are projected for many regions, particularly in African countries, but the gains will mostly vanish and turn to losses in the long run. Irrigation dependence in crop production is projected to increase in general. However, several water poor regions will rely less heavily on irrigation, conducive to alleviating regional water scarcity. The heterogeneity of spatial patterns and the non-linearity of temporal changes of the impacts call for site-specific adaptive measures with perspectives of reducing short- and long-term risks of future food and water security.

  9. A Global and Spatially Explicit Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production and Consumptive Water Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Junguo; Folberth, Christian; Yang, Hong; Röckström, Johan; Abbaspour, Karim; Zehnder, Alexander J. B.

    2013-01-01

    Food security and water scarcity have become two major concerns for future human's sustainable development, particularly in the context of climate change. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on the production and water use of major cereal crops on a global scale with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes for the 2030s (short term) and the 2090s (long term), respectively. Our findings show that impact uncertainties are higher on larger spatial scales (e.g., global and continental) but lower on smaller spatial scales (e.g., national and grid cell). Such patterns allow decision makers and investors to take adaptive measures without being puzzled by a highly uncertain future at the global level. Short-term gains in crop production from climate change are projected for many regions, particularly in African countries, but the gains will mostly vanish and turn to losses in the long run. Irrigation dependence in crop production is projected to increase in general. However, several water poor regions will rely less heavily on irrigation, conducive to alleviating regional water scarcity. The heterogeneity of spatial patterns and the non-linearity of temporal changes of the impacts call for site-specific adaptive measures with perspectives of reducing short- and long-term risks of future food and water security. PMID:23460901

  10. Assessing the costs and market impacts of carbon sequestration, climate change, and acid rain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Callaway, J.M.

    2000-03-01

    This thesis provides fourteen journal articles and papers. Thirteen of these papers were published in referred journals, covering environmental economics, policy modelling, policy analysis, and the physical sciences. One paper was published as a USDA Forest Service research report. The papers in the thesis are divided into three topical areas: 1) Section 2: The Economics of Carbon Sequestration. Eight papers plus Appendix A of the thesis cover the development and application of models to estimate the economic costs and management consequences of policies to sequester carbon emissions by planting trees on agricultural land in the US or through more intensive forest management. 2) Section 3: The Economics of Climate Change Damages. Two papers of the thesis cover the development of models that can be used to estimate the market and nonmarket damages associated with the impacts of climate change on water resources in the US. 3) Section 4: The Economics of Acid Rain Damages. Three papers in the thesis examine the methods that were developed to estimate the damages due to acid rain in the US by the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) and discuss more generally the role of economic policy analysis in this assessment. (EHS)

  11. Combining satellite derived phenology with climate data for climate change impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivits, E.; Cherlet, M.; Tóth, G.; Sommer, S.; Mehl, W.; Vogt, J.; Micale, F.

    2012-05-01

    The projected influence of climate change on the timing and volume of phytomass production is expected to affect a number of ecosystem services. In order to develop coherent and locally effective adaptation and mitigation strategies, spatially explicit information on the observed changes is needed. Long-term variations of the vegetative growing season in different environmental zones of Europe for 1982-2006 have been derived by analysing time series of GIMMS NDVI data. The associations of phenologically homogenous spatial clusters to time series of temperature and precipitation data were evaluated. North-east Europe showed a trend to an earlier and longer growing season, particularly in the northern Baltic areas. Despite the earlier greening up large areas of Europe exhibited rather stable season length indicating the shift of the entire growing season to an earlier period. The northern Mediterranean displayed a growing season shift towards later dates while some agglomerations of earlier and shorter growing season were also seen. The correlation of phenological time series with climate data shows a cause-and-effect relationship over the semi natural areas consistent with results in literature. Managed ecosystems however appear to have heterogeneous change pattern with less or no correlation to climatic trends. Over these areas climatic trends seemed to overlap in a complex manner with more pronounced effects of local biophysical conditions and/or land management practices. Our results underline the importance of satellite derived phenological observations to explain local nonconformities to climatic trends for climate change impact assessment.

  12. Simulation and assessment of urbanization impacts on runoff metrics: insights from landuse changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yongyong; Xia, Jun; Yu, Jingjie; Randall, Mark; Zhang, Yichi; Zhao, Tongtiegang; Pan, Xingyao; Zhai, Xiaoyan; Shao, Quanxi

    2018-05-01

    Urbanization-induced landuse changes alter runoff regimes in complex ways. In this study, a detailed investigation of the urbanization impacts on runoff regimes is provided by using multiple runoff metrics and with consideration of landuse dynamics. A catchment hydrological model is modified by coupling a simplified flow routing module of the urban drainage system and landuse dynamics to improve long-term urban runoff simulations. Moreover, multivariate statistical approach is adopted to mine the spatial variations of runoff metrics so as to further identify critical impact factors of landuse changes. The Qing River catchment as a peri-urban catchment in the Beijing metropolitan area is selected as our study region. Results show that: (1) the dryland agriculture is decreased from 13.9% to 1.5% of the total catchment area in the years 2000-2015, while the percentages of impervious surface, forest and grass are increased from 63.5% to 72.4%, 13.5% to 16.6% and 5.1% to 6.5%, respectively. The most dramatic landuse changes occur in the middle and downstream regions; (2) The combined landuse changes do not alter the average flow metrics obviously at the catchment outlet, but slightly increase the high flow metrics, particularly the extreme high flows; (3) The impacts on runoff metrics in the sub-catchments are more obvious than those at the catchment outlet. For the average flow metrics, the most impacted metric is the runoff depth in the dry season (October ∼ May) with a relative change from -10.9% to 11.6%, and the critical impact factors are the impervious surface and grass. For the high flow metrics, the extreme high flow depth is increased most significantly with a relative change from -0.6% to 10.5%, and the critical impact factors are the impervious surface and dryland agriculture; (4) The runoff depth metrics in the sub-catchments are increased because of the landuse changes from dryland agriculture to impervious surface, but are decreased because of the

  13. Development Impact Assessment (DIA) Case Study. South Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cox, Sadie [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Nawaz, Kathleen [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sandor, Debra [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-05-19

    This case study reviews South Africa’s experience in considering the impacts of climate change action on development goals, focusing on the South African energy sector and development impact assessments (DIAs) that have and could be used to influence energy policy or inform the selection of energy activities. It includes a review of assessments—conducted by government ministries, technical partners, and academic institutes and non-governmental organizations (NGOs)—that consider employment, health, and water implications of possible energy sector actions, as well as multi-criteria impact assessments.

  14. Impacts of Past Land Use Changes on Water Resources: An Analog for Assessing Effects of Proposed Bioenergy Crops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, B. R.; Schilling, K.; Young, M.; Duncan, I. J.; Gerbens-Leenes, P.

    2011-12-01

    Interest is increasing in renewable energy sources, including bioenergy. However, potential impacts of bioenergy crops on water resources need to be better understood before large scale expansion occurs. This study evaluates the potential for using past land use change impacts on water resources as an analog for assessing future bioenergy crop effects. Impacts were assessed for two cases and methods: (1) changes from perennial to annual crops in the Midwest U.S. using stream hydrograph separation; and (2) changes from perennial grasses and shrubs to annual crops in the Southwest U.S. using unsaturated zone and groundwater data. Results from the Midwest show that expanding the soybean production area by 80,000 km2 increased stream flow by 32%, based on data from Keokuk station in the Upper Mississippi River Basin. Using these relationships, further expansion of annual corn production for biofuels by 10 - 50% would increase streamflow by up to 40%, with related increases in nitrate, phosphate, and sediment pollutant transport to the Gulf of Mexico. The changes in water partitioning are attributed to reducing evapotranspiration, increasing recharge and baseflow discharge to streams. Similar results were found in the southwestern US, where changes from native perennial grasses and shrubs to annual crops increased recharge from ~0.0 to 24 mm/yr, raising water tables by up to 7 m in some regions and flushing accumulated salts into underlying aquifers in the southern High Plains. The changes in water partitioning are related to changes in rooting depth from deep rooted native vegetation to shallow rooted crops and growing season length. Further expansion of annual bioenergy crops, such as changes from Conservation Reserve Program to corn in the Midwest, will continue the trajectory of reducing ET, thereby increasing recharge and baseflow to streams and nutrient export. We hypothesize that changing bioenergy crops from annual crops to perennial grasses, such as switchgrass

  15. Climate challenge 2012: growth and climate change - Socio-economical impacts of climate change. Conference proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orange-Louboutin, Mylene; Robinet, Olivier; Delalande, Daniel; Reysset, Bertrand; De Perthuis, Christian; Le Treut, Herve; Cottenceau, Jean-Baptiste; Ayong, Alain; Daubaire, Aurelien; Gaudin, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    The contributions of this conference session proposed comments and discussion on the relationship between climate change and 'green' growth, on the status of scientific knowledge on climate change (from global to local), on the way to perform carbon print assessment and to decide which actions to implement, on the costs and opportunity of impacts of climate change, on the economy of adaptation, on the benefits and costs of the adaptation policy, and on impacts of climate change on employment in quantitative terms and in terms of profession types

  16. Burden Sharing with Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavoni, M.; van Vuuren, D.; De Cian, E.; Marangoni, G.; Hof, A.

    2014-12-01

    Efficiency and equity have been at the center of the climate change policy making since the very first international environmental agreements on climate change, though over time how to implement these principles has taken different forms. Studies based on Integrated Assessment Models have also shown that the economic effort of achieving a 2 degree target in a cost-effective way would differ widely across regions (Tavoni et al. 2013) because of diverse economic and energy structure, baseline emissions, energy and carbon intensity. Policy instruments, such as a fully-fledged, global emission trading schemes can be used to pursuing efficiency and equity at the same time but the literature has analyzed the compensations required to redistribute only mitigation costs. However, most of these studies have neglected the potential impacts of climate change. In this paper we use two integrated assessment models -FAIR and WITCH- to explore the 2°C policy space when accounting for climate change impacts. Impacts are represented via two different reduced forms equations, which despite their simplicity allows us exploring the key sensitivities- Our results show that in a 2 degree stabilization scenarios residual damages remain significant (see Figure 1) and that if you would like to compensate those as part of an equal effort scheme - this would lead to a different allocation than focusing on a mitigation based perspective only. The residual damages and adaptation costs are not equally distributed - and while we do not cover the full uncertainty space - with 2 different models and 2 sets of damage curves we are still able to show quite similar results in terms of vulnerable regions and the relative position of the different scenarios. Therefore, accounting for the residual damages and the associated adaptation costs on top of the mitigation burden increases and redistributes the full burden of total climate change.

  17. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baruffi, F.; Cisotto, A.; Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M.; Pretner, A.; Galli, A.; Scarinci, A.; Marsala, V.; Panelli, C.; Gualdi, S.; Bucchignani, E.; Torresan, S.; Pasini, S.; Critto, A.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961–1990 and the projection period 2010–2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071–2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble

  18. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baruffi, F. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cisotto, A., E-mail: segreteria@adbve.it [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Pretner, A.; Galli, A. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Scarinci, A., E-mail: andrea.scarinci@sgi-spa.it [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Marsala, V.; Panelli, C. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Gualdi, S., E-mail: silvio.gualdi@bo.ingv.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Bucchignani, E., E-mail: e.bucchignani@cira.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Torresan, S., E-mail: torresan@cmcc.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Pasini, S., E-mail: sara.pasini@stud.unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); Critto, A., E-mail: critto@unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); and others

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

  19. Projecting Poverty at the Household Scale to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Poor People

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallegatte, S.; Rozenberg, J.

    2015-12-01

    This paper quantifies the potential impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030 and 2050, in 92 countries covering 90% of the developing world population. It accounts for the deep uncertainties that characterize future socio-economic evolutions and the lack of data regarding the condition and livelihood of poor people. It also considers many impacts of climate change, another source of uncertainty. We use a micro-simulation model based on household surveys and explore a wide range of uncertainties on future structural change, productivity growth or demographic changes. This results, for each country, in the creation of several hundred scenarios for future income growth and income distribution. We then explore the resulting space of possible futures and use scenario discovery techniques to identify the main drivers of inequalities and poverty reduction. We find that redistribution and structural change are powerful drivers of poverty and inequality reduction, except in low-income countries. In the poorest countries in Africa, reducing poverty cannot rely on redistribution but requires low population growth and productivity growth in agriculture. Once we have explored the space of possible outcomes for poverty and inequalities, we choose two representative scenarios of the best and worst cases and model the impacts of climate change in each of these two scenarios. Climate change impacts are modeled through 4 channels. First, climate change has an impact on labor productivity growth for people who work outside because of higher temperatures. Second, climate change has an impact on human capital because of more severe stunting in some places. Third, climate change has an impact on physical capital via more frequent natural disasters. Fourth, climate change has an impact on consumption because of changes in food prices. Impacts are very heterogeneous across countries and are mostly concentrated in African and South-East Asian countries. For high radiative forcing (RCP8

  20. Health Care Facilities Resilient to Climate Change Impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaclyn Paterson

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change will increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events and create risks that will impact health care facilities. Health care facilities will need to assess climate change risks and adopt adaptive management strategies to be resilient, but guidance tools are lacking. In this study, a toolkit was developed for health care facility officials to assess the resiliency of their facility to climate change impacts. A mixed methods approach was used to develop climate change resiliency indicators to inform the development of the toolkit. The toolkit consists of a checklist for officials who work in areas of emergency management, facilities management and health care services and supply chain management, a facilitator’s guide for administering the checklist, and a resource guidebook to inform adaptation. Six health care facilities representing three provinces in Canada piloted the checklist. Senior level officials with expertise in the aforementioned areas were invited to review the checklist, provide feedback during qualitative interviews and review the final toolkit at a stakeholder workshop. The toolkit helps health care facility officials identify gaps in climate change preparedness, direct allocation of adaptation resources and inform strategic planning to increase resiliency to climate change.

  1. Assessing the demographic and public service impacts of repository siting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murdock, S.H.; Hamm, R.R.

    1983-01-01

    Demographic and public service impacts are likely to be among the most evident of those changes resulting from nuclear waste repository development. Knowledge of the characteristics of such impacts and of the means to assess them is critical. The first section of this chapter examines those likely to be unique to repositories. The second section describes the alternatives for assessing such impacts and the particular difficulties likely to affect the assessments. Given the state of development of techniques for assessing impacts and the range of factors that must be considered, perhaps their best use is as a means of sensitizing decision makers to the potential implications of their decisions. 2 tables

  2. Impacts of climate change and variability on European agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Orlandini, Simone; Nejedlik, Pavol; Eitzinger, Josef

    2008-01-01

    susceptible to meteorological hazards. These hazards can modify environment-genotype interactions, which can affect the quality of production. The COST 734 Action (Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on European Agriculture), launched in 2006, is composed of 28 signature countries and is funded...... by the European Commission. The main objective of the Action is the evaluation of possible impacts arising from climate change and variability on agriculture and the assessment of critical thresholds for various European areas. The Action will concentrate on four different tasks: agroclimatic indices...... and simulation models, including review and assessment of tools used to relate climate and agricultural processes; evaluation of the current trends of agroclimatic indices and model outputs, including remote sensing; developing and assessing future regional and local scenarios of agroclimatic conditions...

  3. Future changes in Mekong River hydrology: impact of climate change and reservoir operation on discharge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lauri

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The transboundary Mekong River is facing two ongoing changes that are expected to significantly impact its hydrology and the characteristics of its exceptional flood pulse. The rapid economic development of the riparian countries has led to massive plans for hydropower construction, and projected climate change is expected to alter the monsoon patterns and increase temperature in the basin. The aim of this study is to assess the cumulative impact of these factors on the hydrology of the Mekong within next 20–30 yr. We downscaled the output of five general circulation models (GCMs that were found to perform well in the Mekong region. For the simulation of reservoir operation, we used an optimisation approach to estimate the operation of multiple reservoirs, including both existing and planned hydropower reservoirs. For the hydrological assessment, we used a distributed hydrological model, VMod, with a grid resolution of 5 km × 5 km. In terms of climate change's impact on hydrology, we found a high variation in the discharge results depending on which of the GCMs is used as input. The simulated change in discharge at Kratie (Cambodia between the baseline (1982–1992 and projected time period (2032–2042 ranges from −11% to +15% for the wet season and −10% to +13% for the dry season. Our analysis also shows that the changes in discharge due to planned reservoir operations are clearly larger than those simulated due to climate change: 25–160% higher dry season flows and 5–24% lower flood peaks in Kratie. The projected cumulative impacts follow rather closely the reservoir operation impacts, with an envelope around them induced by the different GCMs. Our results thus indicate that within the coming 20–30 yr, the operation of planned hydropower reservoirs is likely to have a larger impact on the Mekong hydrograph than the impacts of climate change, particularly during the dry season. On the other hand, climate change will

  4. Sensitivity to Uncertainty in Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathias, D.; Wheeler, L.; Prabhu, D. K.; Aftosmis, M.; Dotson, J.; Robertson, D. K.

    2015-12-01

    The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center is developing a physics-based impact risk model for probabilistically assessing threats from potential asteroid impacts on Earth. The model integrates probabilistic sampling of asteroid parameter ranges with physics-based analyses of entry, breakup, and impact to estimate damage areas and casualties from various impact scenarios. Assessing these threats is a highly coupled, dynamic problem involving significant uncertainties in the range of expected asteroid characteristics, how those characteristics may affect the level of damage, and the fidelity of various modeling approaches and assumptions. The presented model is used to explore the sensitivity of impact risk estimates to these uncertainties in order to gain insight into what additional data or modeling refinements are most important for producing effective, meaningful risk assessments. In the extreme cases of very small or very large impacts, the results are generally insensitive to many of the characterization and modeling assumptions. However, the nature of the sensitivity can change across moderate-sized impacts. Results will focus on the value of additional information in this critical, mid-size range, and how this additional data can support more robust mitigation decisions.

  5. Scenario-Based Impact Assessment of Land Use/Cover and Climate Changes on Watershed Hydrology in Heihe River Basin of Northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Wu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluated hydrological impacts of potential climate and land use changes in Heihe River Basin of Northwest China. The future climate data for the simulation with Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT were prepared using a dynamical downscaling method. The future land uses were simulated with the Dynamic Land Use System (DLS model by establishing Multinomial Logistic Regression (MNL model for six land use types. In 2006–2030, land uses in the basin will experience a significant change with a prominent increase in urban areas, a moderate increase in grassland, and a great decrease in unused land. Besides, the simulation results showed that in comparison to those during 1981–2005 the temperature and precipitation during 2006–2030 will change by +0.8°C and +10.8%, respectively. The land use change and climate change will jointly make the water yield change by +8.5%, while they will separately make the water yield change by −1.8% and +9.8%, respectively. The predicted large increase in future precipitation and the corresponding decrease in unused land will have substantial impacts on the watershed hydrology, especially on the surface runoff and streamflow. Therefore, to mitigate negative hydrological impacts and utilize positive impacts, both land use and climate changes should be considered in water resource planning for the Heihe River Basin.

  6. Adapting to Health Impacts of Climate Change in the Department of Defense.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chrétien, Jean-Paul

    2016-01-01

    The Department of Defense (DoD) recognizes climate change as a threat to its mission and recently issued policy to implement climate change adaptation measures. However, the DoD has not conducted a comprehensive assessment of health-related climate change effects. To catalyze the needed assessment--a first step toward a comprehensive DoD climate change adaptation plan for health--this article discusses the DoD relevance of 3 selected climate change impacts: heat injuries, vector-borne diseases, and extreme weather that could lead to natural disasters. The author uses these examples to propose a comprehensive approach to planning for health-related climate change impacts in the DoD.

  7. Climate change and Public health: vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzzone, F.; Setegn, S.

    2013-12-01

    Climate Change plays a significant role in public health. Changes in climate affect weather conditions that we are accustomed to. Increases in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events such as storms could increase the risk of dangerous flooding, high winds, and other direct threats to people and property. Changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and extreme events could enhance the spread of some diseases. According to studies by EPA, the impacts of climate change on health will depend on many factors. These factors include the effectiveness of a community's public health and safety systems to address or prepare for the risk and the behavior, age, gender, and economic status of individuals affected. Impacts will likely vary by region, the sensitivity of populations, the extent and length of exposure to climate change impacts, and society's ability to adapt to change. Transmissions of infectious disease have been associated with social, economic, ecological, health care access, and climatic factors. Some vector-borne diseases typically exhibit seasonal patterns in which the role of temperature and rainfall is well documented. Some of the infectious diseases that have been documented by previous studies, include the correlation between rainfall and drought in the occurrence of malaria, the influence of the dry season on epidemic meningococcal disease in the sub-Saharan African, and the importance of warm ocean waters in driving cholera occurrence in the Ganges River delta in Asia The rise of climate change has been a major concern in the public health sector. Climate change mainly affects vulnerable populations especially in developing countries; therefore, it's important that public health advocates are involve in the decision-making process in order to provide resources and preventative measures for the challenges that are associated with climate change. The main objective of this study is to assess the vulnerability and impact of climate change

  8. Assessment of environmental impacts following alternative agricultural policy scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bárlund, I; Lehtonen, H; Tattari, S

    2005-01-01

    Abstract Finnish agriculture is likely to undergo major changes in the near and intermediate future. The ifuture policy context can be examined at a general level by strategic scenario building. Computer-based modelling in combination with agricultural policy scenarios can in turn create a basis for the assessments of changes in environmental quality following possible changes in Finnish agriculture. The analysis of economic consequences is based on the DREMFIA model, which is applied to study effects of various agricultural policies on land use, animal production, and farmers' income. The model is suitable for an impact analysis covering an extended time span--here up to the year 2015. The changes in land use, obtained with the DREMFIA model assuming rational economic behaviour, form the basis when evaluating environmental impacts of different agricultural policies. The environmental impact assessment is performed using the field scale nutrient transport model ICECREAM. The modelled variables are nitrogen and phosphorus losses in surface runoff and percolation. In this paper the modelling strategy will be presented and highlighted using two case study catchments with varying environmental conditions and land use as an example. In addition, the paper identifies issues arising when connecting policy scenarios with impact modelling.

  9. Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment in the United States and Implications for Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.

    2012-01-01

    As an integral part of the National Climate Assessment (NCA), technical assessment reports for 13 regions in the U.S. that describe the scientific rationale to support climate change impacts within the purview of these regions, and provide adaptation or mitigation measures in response to these impacts. These technical assessments focus on climate change impacts on sectors that are important environmental, biophysical, and social and economic aspects of sustainability within the U.S.: Climate change science, Ecosystems and biodiversity, Water resources, Human health, Energy supply and use, Water/energy/land use, Transportation, Urban/infrastructure/vulnerability, Agriculture, Impacts of climate change on tribal/indigenous and native lands and resources, Forestry, Land use/land cover change, Rural communities development, and Impacts on biogeochemical cycles, with implications for ecosystems and biodiversity. There is a critical and timely need for the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies in response to climate change by the policy and decision making communities, to insure resiliency and sustainability of the built environment in the future.

  10. Assessment of climate change impact on water resources in the Pungwe river basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersson, Lotta; Samuelsson, Patrick; Kjellstroem, Erik (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden)), e-mail: lotta.andersson@smhi.se

    2011-01-15

    The Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA3) and the hydrological model HBV were linked to assess climate change impacts on water resources in the Pungwe basin until 2050. RCA3 was capable of simulating the most important aspects of the climate for a control period at the regional scale. At the subbasin scale, additional scaling was needed. Three climate change experiments using ECHAM4-A2, B2 and CCSM3-B2 as input to RCA3 were carried out. According to the simulations annual rainfall in 2050 would be reduced by approximately 10% with increasing interannual variability of rainfall and dry season river flow and later onset of the rainy season. The ECHAM4-A2 driven experiment did also indicate a slight increase of high flows. If the results indeed reflect the future, they will worsen the already critical situation for water resources, regarding both floods and droughts. Uncertainties, however in the downscaled scenarios make it difficult to prioritize adaptation options. This calls for inclusion of more climate change experiments, in an ensemble of climate scenarios possibly by using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling of general circulation models, as well as extending the simulations to 2100 to further ensure robustness of the signal

  11. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  12. Impact assessment procedures for sustainable development: A complexity theory perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nooteboom, Sibout

    2007-01-01

    The author assumes that effective Impact Assessment procedures should somehow contribute to sustainable development. There is no widely agreed framework for evaluating such effectiveness. The author suggests that complexity theories may offer criteria. The relevant question is 'do Impact Assessment Procedures contribute to the 'requisite variety' of a social system for it to deal with changing circumstances?' Requisite variety theoretically relates to the capability of a system to deal with changes in its environment. The author reconstructs how thinking about achieving sustainable development has developed in a sequence of discourses in The Netherlands since the 1970s. Each new discourse built on the previous ones, and is supposed to have added to 'requisite variety'. The author asserts that Impact Assessment procedures may be a necessary component in such sequences and derives possible criteria for effectiveness

  13. How to assess extreme weather impacts - case European transport network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leviäkangas, P.

    2010-09-01

    To assess the impacts of climate change and preparing for impacts is a process. This process we must understand and learn to apply. EWENT (Extreme Weather impacts on European Networks of Transport) will be a test bench for one prospective approach. It has the following main components: 1) identifying what is "extreme", 2) assessing the change in the probabilities, 3) constructing the causal impact models, 4) finding appropriate methods of pricing and costing, 5) finding alternative strategy option, 6) assessing the efficiency of strategy option. This process follows actually the steps of standardized risk management process. Each step is challenging, but if EWENT project succeeds to assess the extreme weather impacts on European transport networks, it is one possible benchmark how to carry out similar analyses in other regions and on country level. EWENT approach could particularly useful for weather and climate information service providers, offering tools for transport authorities and financiers to assess weather risks, and then rationally managing the risks. EWENT project is financed by the European Commission and participated by met-service organisations and transport research institutes from different parts of Europe. The presentation will explain EWENT approach in detail and bring forth the findings of the first work packages.

  14. Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bindi, M.; Palosuo, T.; Trnka, Miroslav; Semenov, M. A.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 65, SEP (2015), s. 3-5 ISSN 0936-577X Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Crop production Upscaling * Climate change impact and adaptation assessments * Upscaling * Model ensembles Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.690, year: 2015

  15. Evaluation of climate change impact on extreme hydrological event ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Changes in hydrological extremes will have implications on the design of future hydraulic structures, flood plain development, and water resource management. This study assesses the potential impact of climate change on extreme hydrological events in the Akaki River catchment area in and around Addis Ababa city.

  16. Identifying alternate pathways for climate change to impact inland recreational fishers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Len M.; Fenichel, Eli P.; Fulton, David C.; Mendelsohn, Robert; Smith, Jordan W.; Tunney, Tyler D.; Lynch, Abigail J.; Paukert, Craig P.; Whitney, James E.

    2016-01-01

    Fisheries and human dimensions literature suggests that climate change influences inland recreational fishers in North America through three major pathways. The most widely recognized pathway suggests that climate change impacts habitat and fish populations (e.g., water temperature impacting fish survival) and cascades to impact fishers. Climate change also impacts recreational fishers by influencing environmental conditions that directly affect fishers (e.g., increased temperatures in northern climates resulting in extended open water fishing seasons and increased fishing effort). The final pathway occurs from climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts (e.g., refined energy policies result in higher fuel costs, making distant trips more expensive). To address limitations of past research (e.g., assessing climate change impacts for only one pathway at a time and not accounting for climate variability, extreme weather events, or heterogeneity among fishers), we encourage researchers to refocus their efforts to understand and document climate change impacts to inland fishers.

  17. The 'Hothaps' programme for assessing climate change impacts on occupational health and productivity: an invitation to carry out field studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjellstrom, Tord; Gabrysch, Sabine; Lemke, Bruno; Dear, Keith

    2009-11-11

    The 'high occupational temperature health and productivity suppression' programme (Hothaps) is a multi-centre health research and prevention programme aimed at quantifying the extent to which working people are affected by, or adapt to, heat exposure while working, and how global heating during climate change may increase such effects. The programme will produce essential new evidence for local, national and global assessment of negative impacts of climate change that have largely been overlooked. It will also identify and evaluate preventive interventions in different social and economic settings.Hothaps includes studies in any part of the world where hourly heat exposure exceeds physiological stress limits that may affect workers. This usually happens at temperatures above 25 degrees C, depending on humidity, wind movement and heat radiation. Working people in low and middle-income tropical countries are particularly vulnerable, because many of them are involved in heavy physical work, either outdoors in strong sunlight or indoors without effective cooling. If high work intensity is maintained in workplaces with high heat exposure, serious health effects can occur, including heat stroke and death.Depending on the type of occupation, the required work intensity, and the level of heat stress, working people have to slow down their work in order to reduce internal body heat production and the risk of heat stroke. Thus, unless preventive interventions are used to reduce the heat stress on workers, their individual health and productivity will be affected and economic output per work hour will be reduced. Heat also influences other daily physical activities, unrelated to work, in all age groups. Poorer people without access to household or workplace cooling devices are most likely to be affected.The Hothaps programme includes a pilot study, heat monitoring of selected workplaces, qualitative studies of perceived heat impacts and preventative interventions

  18. Barrier-island and estuarine-wetland physical-change assessment after Hurricane Sandy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Nathaniel G.; Smith, Kathryn E.L.; Passeri, Davina L.; Smith, Christopher G.; Bernier, Julie C.

    2018-04-03

    IntroductionThe Nation’s eastern coast is fringed by beaches, dunes, barrier islands, wetlands, and bluffs. These natural coastal barriers provide critical benefits and services, and can mitigate the impact of storms, erosion, and sea-level rise on our coastal communities. Waves and storm surge resulting from Hurricane Sandy, which made landfall along the New Jersey coast on October 29, 2012, impacted the U.S. coastline from North Carolina to Massachusetts, including Assateague Island, Maryland and Virginia, and the Delmarva coastal system. The storm impacts included changes in topography, coastal morphology, geology, hydrology, environmental quality, and ecosystems.In the immediate aftermath of the storm, light detection and ranging (lidar) surveys from North Carolina to New York documented storm impacts to coastal barriers, providing a baseline to assess vulnerability of the reconfigured coast. The focus of much of the existing coastal change assessment is along the ocean-facing coastline; however, much of the coastline affected by Hurricane Sandy includes the estuarine-facing coastlines of barrier-island systems. Specifically, the wetland and back-barrier shorelines experienced substantial change as a result of wave action and storm surge that occurred during Hurricane Sandy (see also USGS photograph, http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/sandy/photo-comparisons/virginia.php). Assessing physical shoreline and wetland change (land loss as well as land gains) can help to determine the resiliency of wetland systems that protect adjacent habitat, shorelines, and communities.To address storm impacts to wetlands, a vulnerability assessment should describe both long-term (for example, several decades) and short-term (for example, Sandy’s landfall) extent and character of the interior wetlands and the back-barrier-shoreline changes. The objective of this report is to describe several new wetland vulnerability assessments based on the detailed physical changes

  19. Coupled water-energy modelling to assess climate change impacts on the Iberian Power System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pereira Cardenal, Silvio Javier; Madsen, H.; Riegels, N.

    and marginal costs of the power producers. Two effects of climate change on the power system were studied: changes in the hydropower production caused by changes in precipitation and temperature, and changes in the electricity demand over the year caused by temperature changes. A rainfall-runoff model......Water resources systems and power systems are strongly linked; water is needed for most power generation technologies, and electricity is required in every stage of water usage. In the Iberian Peninsula, climate change is expected to have a negative impact on the power system: changes in runoff...... was established to estimate the impact of precipitation and temperature changes on reservoir inflows. The model was calibrated using observed precipitation, temperature and river discharge time series. Potential evapotranspiration was estimated from temperature data, and snow accumulation/melt was modelled using...

  20. What's happening out there? (Climatic change impacts)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Visconti, G.

    1990-01-01

    This article briefly comments on some stumbling-blocks to climatic change modelling accuracy - in assessments of the greenhouse effect, 25% (missing link) of atmospheric carbon dioxide absorption is still unaccounted for; 1989 World Bank estimates of the Amazon rain forest deforestation rate have since proven to be inaccurate; there are difficulties in assessing the movement of the earth's crust relative to variations in sea level; and different studies vary in results relative to global temperature measurement and trend assessment. The need for an assessment of the economic impacts of increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide is also pointed out

  1. Integrated assessment of the impact of climate and land use changes on groundwater quantity and quality in the Mancha Oriental system (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Peña-Haro, S.; García-Prats, A.; Mocholi-Almudever, A. F.; Henriquez-Dole, L.; Macian-Sorribes, H.; Lopez-Nicolas, A.

    2015-04-01

    Climate and land use change (global change) impacts on groundwater systems cannot be studied in isolation. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes have a great impact on the water cycle and contaminant production and transport. Groundwater flow and storage are changing in response not only to climatic changes but also to human impacts on land uses and demands, which will alter the hydrologic cycle and subsequently impact the quantity and quality of regional water systems. Predicting groundwater recharge and discharge conditions under future climate and land use changes is essential for integrated water management and adaptation. In the Mancha Oriental system (MOS), one of the largest groundwater bodies in Spain, the transformation from dry to irrigated lands during the last decades has led to a significant drop of the groundwater table, with the consequent effect on stream-aquifer interaction in the connected Jucar River. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of water quantity and water quality is essential for a proper management of the system. On the one hand, streamflow depletion is compromising the dependent ecosystems and the supply to the downstream demands, provoking a complex management issue. On the other hand, the intense use of fertilizer in agriculture is leading to locally high groundwater nitrate concentrations. In this paper we analyze the potential impacts of climate and land use change in the system by using an integrated modeling framework that consists in sequentially coupling a watershed agriculturally based hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) with a groundwater flow model developed in MODFLOW, and with a nitrate mass-transport model in MT3DMS. SWAT model outputs (mainly groundwater recharge and pumping, considering new irrigation needs under changing evapotranspiration (ET) and precipitation) are used as MODFLOW inputs to simulate changes in groundwater flow and storage and impacts on stream

  2. Climate Change Impact Assessment for Wheat and Rice Productivity, Haryana, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rana, M.; Singh, K. K.; Kumari, N.

    2017-12-01

    Agriculture presents a core of the India Economy and provides food and livelihood activities to much of the Indian population. However, the changing climate is putting challenges to agriculture. The mean temperature in India is increased by 0.1-0.3 degC in Kharif and 0.3-0.7 degC during rabi by 2010, and projected to further increase by 0.4-0.2 degC during Kharif and to 1.1-4.5degC in rabi by 2070. Similarly mean rainfall is projected to increase up to 10% during kharif and rabi by 2070.At same time, there is an increased possibility of climate extremes, such as the timing of onset of monsoon, intensities and frequency of floods and droughts (S.A. Khan et al.,2009).In addition, the rapid population growth at a rate of 1.2% per annum, expected to reach 1.53 billion by the end of 2030; is also a critical issue of this century. Keeping in mind the above facts, this study is carried out in one of major agriculture state in India. The related field data collected from the ongoing experiments in agriculture universities/institutes in the respective state and observed weather data from India Meteorological Dept.(IMD), New Delhi and future climate scenarios data from India Institute of Tropical Meteorology(IITM). Validated CERES Wheat and Rice model embedded in DSSATv4.6 used for simulating the climate change impacts. The yield simulations of crop models were obtained separately for baseline and future data The simulation result indicates significant impact of climate change on both wheat and rice yield. The reason for same attributed to increase in temperature that majorly impact rabi wheat and extreme weather events for Kharif rice. Keywords: Climate Change, CERES Rice-Wheat, Yield, Validation

  3. An assessment of climate change impacts on micro-hydropower energy recovery in water supply networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brady, Jennifer; Patil, Sopan; McNabola, Aonghus; Gallagher, John; Coughlan, Paul; Harris, Ian; Packwood, Andrew; Williams, Prysor

    2015-04-01

    Continuity of service of a high quality water supply is vital in sustaining economic and social development. However, water supply and wastewater treatment are highly energy intensive processes and the overall cost of water provision is rising rapidly due to increased energy costs, higher capital investment requirements, and more stringent regulatory compliance in terms of both national and EU legislation. Under the EU Directive 2009/28/EC, both Ireland and the UK are required to have 16% and 15% respectively of their electricity generated by renewable sources by 2020. The projected impacts of climate change, population growth and urbanisation will place additional pressures on resources, further increasing future water demand which in turn will lead to higher energy consumption. Therefore, there is a need to achieve greater efficiencies across the water industry. The implementation of micro-hydropower turbines within the water supply network has shown considerable viability for energy recovery. This is achieved by harnessing energy at points of high flow or pressure along the network which can then be utilised on site or alternatively sold to the national grid. Micro-hydropower can provide greater energy security for utilities together with a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. However, potential climate change impacts on water resources in the medium-to-long term currently act as a key barrier to industry confidence as changes in flow and pressure within the network can significantly alter the available energy for recovery. The present study aims to address these uncertainties and quantify the regional and local impacts of climate change on the viability of energy recovery across water infrastructure in Ireland and the UK. Specifically, the research focuses on assessing the potential future effects of climate change on flow rates at multiple pressure reducing valve sites along the water supply network and also in terms of flow at a number of wastewater

  4. Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment. A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wratt, D.; Mullan, B.; Salinger, J.; Allan, S.; Morgan, T.; Kenny, G.

    2004-05-01

    Climate change is a real and internationally recognised outcome of increased amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It will have effects over the next decades that are predictable with some level of certainty, but which will vary from place to place throughout New Zealand. The climate will also change from year to year and decade to decade due to natural processes. For example, some parts of the country often have dry summers and autumns when an El Nino climate pattern is present. Both natural fluctuations and human-induced climate changes need to be considered when developing adaptation plans and policies, rather than just 'greenhouse warming' effects on their own. Councils already address extreme weather events and climate variations as they develop plans and provide services. Climate change effects need also to be considered as part of these regulatory, assessment and planning activities. It is not necessary to develop a set of procedures for dealing separately with effects and impacts of climate change - they can be built into existing practices. Over time, climate change responses will involve iterative planning processes, keeping up-to-date with new information, monitoring changes, and reviewing the effectiveness of responses. The response to climate change involves international, national, regional, district and community consideration and action. The Guidance Manual aims to assist local government in working with its communities and making appropriate decisions.

  5. Questioning Complacency: Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation in Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Brien, Karen; Eriksen, Siri; Sygna, Linda; Naess, Lars Otto

    2006-01-01

    Most European assessments of climate change impacts have been carried out on sectors and ecosystems, providing a narrow understanding of what climate change really means for society. Furthermore, the main focus has been on technological adaptations, with less attention paid to the process of climate change adaptation. In this article, we present and analyze findings from recent studies on climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway, with the aim of identifying the wider social impacts of climate change. Three main lessons can be drawn. First, the potential thresholds and indirect effects may be more important than the direct, sectoral effects. Second, highly sensitive sectors, regions, and communities combine with differential social vulnerability to create both winners and losers. Third, high national levels of adaptive capacity mask the barriers and constraints to adaptation, particularly among those who are most vulnerable to climate change. Based on these results, we question complacency in Norway and other European countries regarding climate change impacts and adaptation. We argue that greater attention needs to be placed on the social context of climate change impacts and on the processes shaping vulnerability and adaptation

  6. The Impact of Climate Change on the United States Economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendelsohn, Robert; Neumann, James E.

    2004-08-01

    Understanding the impacts of climate change on economic behaviour is an important aspect of deciding when to take policy actions to prevent or mitigate its consequences. This book applies advanced new economics methodologies to assess impacts on potentially vulnerable aspects of the US economy: agriculture, timber, coastal resources, energy expenditure, fishing, outdoor recreation. It is intended to provide improved understanding of key issues raised in the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. It concludes that some climate change may produce economic gains in the agriculture and forestry sectors, whereas energy, coastal structures, and water sectors may be harmed. The book will serve as an important reference for the scientific, economic, and policy community, and will also be of interest to natural resource/environmental economists as an example of economic valuation techniques. The volume will clearly be of main importance to researchers and policymakers in the US, but will also be influential as a model for assessment of impacts on economies worldwide.

  7. Cumulative Impact Assessment: Approaching Environmental Capacity in Development Area Using Environmental Impact Assessment Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, N.; Lee, M. J.; Maeng, J. H.

    2017-12-01

    Environmental impact assessment estimates the impact of development as a business unit and establishes mitigation plan. If the development is done, its economic effects can spread to the nearby areas. So that various developments can be distributed at different time intervals. The impact of the new developments can be combined with existing environmental impacts and can have a larger impact. That is, Cumulative impact assessment is needed to consider the environmental capacity of the Nearby area. Cumulative impact assessments require policy tools such as environmental impact assessment information and cumulative impact estimation models. In Korea, environmental information (water quality, air quality, etc.) of the development site is measured for environmental impact assessment and monitored for a certain period (generally 5 years) after the project. In addition, by constructing the environmental information as a spatial database, it is possible to express the environmental impact on a regional basis spatially and to intuitively use it for development site selection. Utilizing a composite model of environmental impact assessment information and Remote Sensing data for cumulative impact estimation, That can be used as a policy decision support tool that provides quantitative information for development area management, such as time series effect and sprawl phenomenon.

  8. Assessing the Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khresat, Sa'eb; Shraidaeh, Fadi; Maddat, Amer

    2015-04-01

    Climate change represents one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats facing Jordan. In particular, the combined effects of climate change and water scarcity threaten to affect food and water resources that are critical for livelihoods in Jordan. This is especially true for those communities who live in the dryland area in the country and who rely wholly on rain-fed agriculture. The exact nature and extent of the impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation distribution pattern remain uncertain and it is the poor and vulnerable who will be the most susceptible to climate change adverse effects. A vulnerability assessment of rain fed agriculture to climate change and variability in semi-arid parts of Jordan was conducted in 2014. The purpose of this study is to assess the vulnerability and resilience of the most vulnerable groups where rainfed and irrigated agriculture is practiced. Also, the study focused on quantifying the impacts on agricultural productivity in response to climate change. This will help policymakers and researchers better understand and anticipate the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture and on vulnerable communities in Jordan. Also, it will provide them with tools to identify and implement appropriate adaptation strategies. The data used includes; Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Those pathways were used for climate modeling. A decision support system (DSSAT) for agricultural production was used to assess the impact of climate changes on agricultural production. This approach was used for the Identification of climate change risk and their impacts on Agriculture. Outputs from models are used to assess the vulnerability of farmers and crops to climate and socio-economic change by estimating their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to external factors as a means of identifying what causes the differences in their

  9. Developing the RIAM method (rapid impact assessment matrix) in the context of impact significance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ijaes, Asko; Kuitunen, Markku T.; Jalava, Kimmo

    2010-01-01

    In this paper the applicability of the RIAM method (rapid impact assessment matrix) is evaluated in the context of impact significance assessment. The methodological issues considered in the study are: 1) to test the possibilities of enlarging the scoring system used in the method, and 2) to compare the significance classifications of RIAM and unaided decision-making to estimate the consistency between these methods. The data used consisted of projects for which funding had been applied for via the European Union's Regional Development Trust in the area of Central Finland. Cases were evaluated with respect to their environmental, social and economic impacts using an assessment panel. The results showed the scoring framework used in RIAM could be modified according to the problem situation at hand, which enhances its application potential. However the changes made in criteria B did not significantly affect the final ratings of the method, which indicates the high importance of criteria A1 (importance) and A2 (magnitude) to the overall results. The significance classes obtained by the two methods diverged notably. In general the ratings given by RIAM tended to be smaller compared to intuitive judgement implying that the RIAM method may be somewhat conservative in character.

  10. Application of the HBV model for assessment of climate change impacts on the elements of hydrological cycle for the Struma River Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stanev, Krassimir

    2004-01-01

    The model used in this report is a version of the HBV model developed for the project Climate Change and Energy Production, a Nordic project aimed at evaluating the impacts of climate change on the water resources. It has a simple vegetation parametrization including interception, temperature based evapotranspiration. calculations, lake evaporation, lake routing, glacier mass balance simulation, special functions for climate change simulations etc. The HBV model, originally developed at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute in the first half of the seventies (Bergstroem 1976) has gained widespread use for a large range of applications both in Scandinavia and beyond. It can be classified as a semi-distributed conceptual model. The version described in this report was developed for the Nordic project 'Climate change and Energy Production' (Saelthun 1996), as a synthesis of several versions used in the different Nordic countries. The main input variables are the average daily temperature, daily totals of the precipitation, the potential evapotranspiration and the daily discharges. The HBV model was applied for assessment of climate change impacts on the elements of hydrological cycle for the Struma river basin. The river Struma flows from North to South up to the Aegean Sea. Considerable part of the river basin is situated in northwest part of Bulgaria, heaving an area of more than 10 000 km 2 and average elevation about 900m asl (cross-section Marino pole). The period of 16 years (1973-1988), four precipitation and temperature stations were used for the model parameters evaluation. The achieved value of R 2 (Nash criterion) is 0.55. The climate change impact calculations (monthly values of temperatures change in o C and precipitation change in %) for two scenarios were used for the input data correction to the HBV model. The obtained results are promising and they show the potential possibility for the HBV model use to assess the climate change

  11. Analysis of spatio-temporal land cover changes for hydrological impact assessment within the Nyando River Basin of Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olang, Luke Omondi; Kundu, Peter; Bauer, Thomas; Fürst, Josef

    2011-08-01

    The spatio-temporal changes in the land cover states of the Nyando Basin were investigated for auxiliary hydrological impact assessment. The predominant land cover types whose conversions could influence the hydrological response of the region were selected. Six Landsat images for 1973, 1986, and 2000 were processed to discern the changes based on a methodology that employs a hybrid of supervised and unsupervised classification schemes. The accuracy of the classifications were assessed using reference datasets processed in a GIS with the help of ground-based information obtained through participatory mapping techniques. To assess the possible hydrological effect of the detected changes during storm events, a physically based lumped approach for infiltration loss estimation was employed within five selected sub-basins. The results obtained indicated that forests in the basin declined by 20% while agricultural fields expanded by 16% during the entire period of study. Apparent from the land cover conversion matrices was that the majority of the forest decline was a consequence of agricultural expansion. The model results revealed decreased infiltration amounts by between 6% and 15%. The headwater regions with the vast deforestation were noted to be more vulnerable to the land cover change effects. Despite the haphazard land use patterns and uncertainties related to poor data quality for environmental monitoring and assessment, the study exposed the vast degradation and hence the need for sustainable land use planning for enhanced catchment management purposes.

  12. A Conceptual Framework for Vulnerability Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Critical Oil and Gas Infrastructure in the Niger Delta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin Udie

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The impact of climate change on the Niger Delta is severe, as extreme weather events have inflicted various degrees of stress on critical oil/gas infrastructure. Typically, assets managers and government agencies lack a clear framework for evaluating the vulnerability of these systems. This paper presents a participatory framework for the vulnerability assessment of critical oil/gas infrastructure to climate change impacts in the Niger Delta context. Through a critical review of relevant literature and triangulating observational and exploratory data from the field, this paper has developed a conceptual framework with three elements: (1 a preliminary scoping activity; (2 the vulnerability assessment; and (3 mainstreaming the results into institutional asset management codes. Scoping involves the definition of research aims and objectives, review of prevailing climate burdens and impacts, exploratory investigation, screening for new (planned assets and selection of relevant infrastructure. The emphasis on screening for planned infrastructure is to facilitate the incorporation of sustainable adaptive capacities into the original design of identified systems. A conceptual framework for vulnerability assessment is presented as a robust systematic iterative model for the evaluation of selected assets using an appropriate methodology. In this study, analytic hierarchy process (AHP is applied while mainstreaming as part of the research framework is emphasised to aid commercial implementation from an expert-based perspective. The study recommends the use of other suitable methodologies and systematic approaches to test the flexibility of the framework.

  13. Assessing the impact of aviation on climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen Marais

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available We present an assessment of the marginal climate impacts of new aviation activities. We use impulse response functions derived from carbon-cycle and atmospheric models to estimate changes in surface temperature for various aviation impacts (CO2, NOx on methane, NOx on ozone, sulfates, soot, and contrails/induced cirrus. We use different damage functions and discount rates to explore health, welfare and ecological costs for a range of assumptions and scenarios. Since uncertainty is high regarding many aviation effects, we explicitly capture some uncertainty by representing several model parameters as probabilistic distributions. The uncertainties are then propagated using Monte Carlo analysis to derive estimates for the impact of these uncertainties on the marginal future climate impacts. Our goal is to provide a framework that will communicate the potential impacts of aviation on climate change under different scenarios and assumptions, and that will allow decision-makers to compare these potential impacts to other aviation environmental impacts. We present results to describe the influence of parametric uncertainties, scenarios, and assumptions for valuation on the expected marginal future costs of aviation impacts. Estimates of the change in global average surface temperature due to aviation are most sensitive to changes in climate sensitivity, the radiative forcing attributed to short-lived effects (in particular those related to contrails and aviation-induced cirrus, and the choice of emissions scenario. Estimates of marginal future costs of aviation are most sensitive to assumptions regarding the discount rate, followed by assumptions regarding climate sensitivity, and the choice of emissions scenario.

  14. Integrated assessment of the impact of climate and land use changes on groundwater quantity and quality in Mancha Oriental (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Peña-Haro, S.; Garcia-Prats, A.; Mocholi-Almudever, A. F.; Henriquez-Dole, L.; Macian-Sorribes, H.; Lopez-Nicolas, A.

    2014-09-01

    Climate and land use change (global change) impacts on groundwater systems cannot be studied in isolation, as various and complex interactions in the hydrological cycle take part. Land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes have a great impact on the water cycle and contaminant production and transport. Groundwater flow and storage are changing in response not only to climatic changes but also to human impacts on land uses and demands (global change). Changes in future climate and land uses will alter the hydrologic cycles and subsequently impact the quantity and quality of regional water systems. Predicting the behavior of recharge and discharge conditions under future climatic and land use changes is essential for integrated water management and adaptation. In the Mancha Oriental system in Spain, in the last decades the transformation from dry to irrigated lands has led to a significant drop of the groundwater table in one of the largest groundwater bodies in Spain, with the consequent effect on stream-aquifer interaction in the connected Jucar River. Streamflow depletion is compromising the related ecosystems and the supply to the downstream demands, provoking a complex management issue. The intense use of fertilizer in agriculture is also leading to locally high groundwater nitrate concentrations. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of water availability and water quality is essential for a proper management of the system. In this paper we analyze the potential impact of climate and land use change in the system by using an integrated modelling framework consisting of the sequentially coupling of a watershed agriculturally-based hydrological model (SWAT) with the ground-water model MODFLOW and mass-transport model MT3D. SWAT model outputs (mainly groundwater recharge and pumping, considering new irrigation needs under changing ET and precipitation) are used as MODFLOW inputs to simulate changes in groundwater flow and storage and impacts on stream

  15. Assess How Changes in Fuel Cycle Operation Impact Safeguards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tobin, Stephen Joseph [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Nuclear Engineering and Nonproliferation Division; Adigun, Babatunde John [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Nuclear Engineering and Nonproliferation Division; Fugate, Michael Lynn [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Nuclear Engineering and Nonproliferation Division; Trellue, Holly Renee [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Nuclear Engineering and Nonproliferation Division; Sprinkle, James K. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Nuclear Engineering and Nonproliferation Division

    2016-10-31

    Since the beginning of commercial nuclear power generation in the 1960s, the ability of researchers to understand and control the isotopic content of spent fuel has improved. It is therefore not surprising that both fuel assembly design and fuel assembly irradiation optimization have improved over the past 50+ years. It is anticipated that the burnup and isotopics of the spent fuel should exhibit less variation over the decades as reactor operators irradiate each assembly to the optimum amount. In contrast, older spent fuel is anticipated to vary more in burnup and resulting isotopics for a given initial enrichment. Modern fuel therefore should be more uniform in composition, and thus, measured safeguards results should be easier to interpret than results from older spent fuel. With spent fuel ponds filling up, interim and long-­term storage of spent fuel will need to be addressed. Additionally after long periods of storage, spent fuel is no longer self-­protecting and, as such, the IAEA will categorize it as more attractive; in approximately 20 years many of the assemblies from early commercial cores will no longer be considered self-­protecting. This study will assess how more recent changes in the reactor operation could impact the interpretation of safeguards measurements. The status quo for spent fuel assay in the safeguards context is that the overwhelming majority of spent fuel assemblies are not measured in a quantitative way except for those assemblies about to be loaded into a difficult or impossible to access location (dry storage or, in the future, a repository). In other words, when the assembly is still accessible to a state actor, or an insider, when it is cooling in a pool, the inspectorate does not have a measurement database that could assist them in re-­verifying the integrity of that assembly. The spent fuel safeguards regime would be strengthened if spent fuel assemblies were measured from discharge to loading into a difficult or impossible

  16. Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; Monier, Erwan

    2017-08-01

    While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climate change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.

  17. Combined top-down and bottom-up climate change impact assessment for the hydrological system in the Vu Gia- Thu Bon River Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tra, Tran Van; Thinh, Nguyen Xuan; Greiving, Stefan

    2018-07-15

    Vu Gia- Thu Bon (VGTB) River Basin, located in the Central Coastal zone of Viet Nam currently faces water shortage. Climate change is expected to exacerbate the challenge. Therefore, there is a need to study the impacts of climate change on water shortage in the river basin. The study adopts a combined top-down and bottom-up climate change impact assessment to address the impacts of climate change on water shortage in the VGTB River Basin. A MIKE BASIN water balance model for the river basin was established to simulate the response of the hydrological system. Simulations were performed through parametrically varying temperature and precipitation to determine the vulnerability space of water shortage. General Circulation Models (GCMs) were then utilized to provide climate projections for the river basin. The output from GCMs was then mapped onto the vulnerability space determined earlier. In total, 9 out of 55 water demand nodes in the simulation are expected to face problematic conditions as future climate changes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Impact assessment of land use policies: Introduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bezlepkina, I.; Brouwer, F.M.; Reidsma, P.

    2014-01-01

    This special issue is built around a series of impact assessments of land use policies and sustainable development in developing countries, carried out in the EU-funded project LUPIS (Sixth framework programme, Global Change and Ecosystems, Contract 36955). The project targeted at the development

  19. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Demands and Crop Yields in California's Central Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tansey, M. K.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Young, C. A.; Huntington, J. L.

    2012-12-01

    Long term planning for the management of California's water resources requires assessment of the effects of future climate changes on both water supply and demand. Considerable progress has been made on the evaluation of the effects of future climate changes on water supplies but less information is available with regard to water demands. Uncertainty in future climate projections increases the difficulty of assessing climate impacts and evaluating long range adaptation strategies. Compounding the uncertainty in the future climate projections is the fact that most readily available downscaled climate projections lack sufficient meteorological information to compute evapotranspiration (ET) by the widely accepted ASCE Penman-Monteith (PM) method. This study addresses potential changes in future Central Valley water demands and crop yields by examining the effects of climate change on soil evaporation, plant transpiration, growth and yield for major types of crops grown in the Central Valley of California. Five representative climate scenarios based on 112 bias corrected spatially downscaled CMIP 3 GCM climate simulations were developed using the hybrid delta ensemble method to span a wide range future climate uncertainty. Analysis of historical California Irrigation Management Information System meteorological data was combined with several meteorological estimation methods to compute future solar radiation, wind speed and dew point temperatures corresponding to the GCM projected temperatures and precipitation. Future atmospheric CO2 concentrations corresponding to the 5 representative climate projections were developed based on weighting IPCC SRES emissions scenarios. The Land, Atmosphere, and Water Simulator (LAWS) model was used to compute ET and yield changes in the early, middle and late 21st century for 24 representative agricultural crops grown in the Sacramento, San Joaquin and Tulare Lake basins. Study results indicate that changes in ET and yield vary

  20. Assessment of Environmental Impacts of Limestone Quarrying Operations in Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kittipongvises, Suthirat

    2017-11-01

    Environmental impacts of the mineral extraction have been a public concern. Presently, there is widespread global interest in the area of mining and its sustainability that focused on the need to shift mining industry to a more sustainable framework. The aim of this study was to systematically assess all possible environmental and climate change related impacts of the limestone quarrying operation in Thailand. By considering the life cycle assessment method, the production processes were divided into three phases: raw material extraction, transportation, and comminution. Both IMPACT 2002+ and the Greenhouse Gas Protocol methods were used. Results of IMPACT 2002+ analysis showed that per 1 ton crushed limestone rock production, the total depletion of resource and GHGs emissions were 79.6 MJ and 2.76 kg CO2 eq., respectively. Regarding to the four damage categories, `resources' and `climate change' categories were the two greatest environmental impacts of the limestone rock production. Diesel fuel and electricity consumption in the mining processes were the main causes of those impacts. For climate change, the unit of CO2 eq. was expressed to quantify the total GHGs emissions. Estimated result was about 3.13 kg CO2 eq. per ton limestone rock product. The results obtained by the Greenhouse Gas Protocol were also similar to IMPACT 2002+ method. Electrical energy consumption was considered as the main driver of GHGs, accounting for approximately 46.8 % of total fossil fuel CO2 emissions. A final point should be noted that data uncertainties in environmental assessment over the complete life cycle of limestone quarrying operation have to be carefully considered.

  1. Land Use and Land-use Changes in Life Cycle Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Rosa, Michele

    2017-01-01

    The assessment of Land Uses and Land-use Changes (LULUC) impacts has become increasingly complex. Sophisticated modelling tools such as Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) are employed to capture both direct and indirect damages. However, quantitative assessments are often incomplete, dominated...... by environmental aspects. Land uses are a multidisciplinary matter and environmental and sustainable development policies intertwine. Yet, LCAs mostly focus on environmental impacts excluding socioeconomic implications of land occupation. This paper investigates the limitations of current LULUC modelling practices....... Consequently, results informing land policies may be biased towards determined development strategies or hide indirect effects and socioeconomic damages caused by large-scale land acquisitions, such as violation of tenure rights, speculation and displacement. Quantitative assessments of LULUC impacts...

  2. The environmental impact of changing consumption patterns: a survey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røpke, Inge

    2001-01-01

    How does environmental impact change when national income increases? So far, this question has been mainly discussed from the point of view of production, but in recent years several studies have dealt with the question of decoupling from the point of view of consumption. The optimistic subscribers...... assessment of the environmental impact is most appropriately based on an input approach. Then data on input intensities for different categories of consumption goods are combined with data on changes in consumption patterns, and it is concluded that the historical changes in the composition of consumption...... seem to have done little to counterbalance the environmental effects of growth....

  3. Climate change. Socio-economic impacts and violent conflict

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Ierland, E.C.; Klaassen, M.G.; Nierop, T.; Van der Wusten, H.

    1996-01-01

    The results of a literature study on the socio-economic impacts of climate change and the possibilities of violent conflicts enhanced by the greenhouse effect are presented. The socio-economic impacts are classified according to the economic sectors agriculture, forestry, fishery, energy, water, construction, transport, tourism and recreation and discussed in Chapter 2. The impacts on property, ecosystems and human well being are outlined in chapter 3. Chapter 4 deals with climate change and environmental security, and discusses the most important concepts of security and their relation to climate change. Chapter 5 deals with already existing and potential conflicts, that may be enhanced by the greenhouse effect as a result of resource scarcity, particularly related to availability of food and water. On the basis of the literature study and an analysis of research gaps propositions are made on new areas of research to be undertaken. The study emphasizes the need to further study the impact on agriculture in semi-arid zones, the impact on water availability in sensitive regions, a further analysis of the consequences of sea level rise particularly in sensitive areas and with regard to forced migration. Also further studies are required into the socio-economic impacts of changes in human health and mortality due to climate change, in relation to diseases. Special attention should be paid to migration because of environmental degradation and flooding. Extreme weather events have already been studied, but there still is a need for further insights into how extreme weather events will affect society, taking into account adaptive behaviour. Finally, in the area of socio-economic impacts, the implications of changes in ecosystems and biodiversity require further attention as these effects may be large but, at the same time, difficult to assess in economic terms. 175 refs

  4. Experience and lessons from health impact assessment for human rights impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salcito, Kendyl; Utzinger, Jürg; Krieger, Gary R; Wielga, Mark; Singer, Burton H; Winkler, Mirko S; Weiss, Mitchell G

    2015-09-16

    As globalisation has opened remote parts of the world to foreign investment, global leaders at the United Nations and beyond have called on multinational companies to foresee and mitigate negative impacts on the communities surrounding their overseas operations. This movement towards corporate impact assessment began with a push for environmental and social inquiries. It has been followed by demands for more detailed assessments, including health and human rights. In the policy world the two have been joined as a right-to-health impact assessment. In the corporate world, the right-to-health approach fulfils neither managers' need to comprehensively understand impacts of a project, nor rightsholders' need to know that the full suite of their human rights will be safe from violation. Despite the limitations of a right-to-health tool for companies, integration of health into human rights provides numerous potential benefits to companies and the communities they affect. Here, a detailed health analysis through the human rights lens is carried out, drawing on a case study from the United Republic of Tanzania. This paper examines the positive and negative health and human rights impacts of a corporate operation in a low-income setting, as viewed through the human rights lens, considering observations on the added value of the approach. It explores the relationship between health impact assessment (HIA) and human rights impact assessment (HRIA). First, it considers the ways in which HIA, as a study directly concerned with human welfare, is a more appropriate guide than environmental or social impact assessment for evaluating human rights impacts. Second, it considers the contributions HRIA can make to HIA, by viewing determinants of health not as direct versus indirect, but as interrelated.

  5. Using Classroom Assessment To Change Both Teaching and Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steadman, Mimi

    1998-01-01

    Summarizes results of a study on implementation and impact of classroom assessment techniques (CATs) in community colleges, examining how classroom assessment has been applied by teachers, documenting changes in teaching behaviors, and considering costs and benefits. Also examines students' experiences and satisfaction with courses taught using…

  6. Assessing potential impacts of climate change and variability on the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Basin: A binational approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quinn, F.H.; Mortsch, L.D.

    1997-01-01

    The potential impacts of climate change and variability on the Great Lakes environment are serious and complex. The Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Basin is home to 42.5 million US and Canadian citizens and is the industrial and commercial heartland of both nations. The region is rich in human and natural resources, with diverse economic activities and substantial infrastructure which would be affected by major shifts in climate. For example, water level changes could affect wetland distribution and functioning; reductions in streamflow would alter assimilative capacities while warmer water temperatures would influence spring and fall turnover and incidence of anoxia. A binational program has been initiated to conduct interdisciplinary, integrated impact assessments for the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River Basin. The goal of this program is to undertake interdisciplinary, integrated studies to improve the understanding of the complex interactions between climate, the environment, and socioeconomic systems in order to develop informed regional adaptation responses

  7. Uncertainty in climate change impacts on low flows

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Booij, Martijn J.; Huisjes, Martijn; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert; Demuth, Siegfried; Gustard, Alan; Planos, Eduardo; Scatena, Fred; Servat, Eric

    2006-01-01

    It is crucial for low flow management that information about the impacts of climate change on low flows and the uncertainties therein becomes available. This has been achieved by using information from different Regional Climate Models for different emission scenarios to assess the uncertainty in

  8. Potential future impacts of climatic change on the Great Plains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smit, B.

    1991-01-01

    A synopsis is provided of approaches to impact studies in the Great Plains, findings from studies of future impacts are summarized, and opportunities for enhancing understanding of future impacts are discussed. Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources, forestry, recreation/tourism, and energy are summarized. Impact analyses need to look more rigorously at variability in climate, the probabilities of various climatic conditions, and the sensitivity of social and economic activities to climatic variability. Most economic impact studies have assumed no adaptive behavior on the part of economic decision makers. Credible impact assessments require an improved understanding of the sensitivity and adaptability of sectors to climatic conditions, particularly variability. The energy sector in the Great Plains region is likely to be more sensitive to political developments in the Middle East than to climatic variability and change. Speculation and analysis of climate impacts have focused on supply conditions and demands, yet the sector is more keenly sensitive to policy implications of climatic change, such as the potential for fossil fuel taxes or other legislative or pricing constraints. 28 refs

  9. Assessing and managing freshwater ecosystems vulnerable to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Birge, Hannah E.; Drakare, Stina; McKie, Brendan G.; Johnson, Richard K.

    2014-01-01

    Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.

  10. Resolving issues with environmental impact assessment of marine renewable energy installations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilya M. D. Maclean

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Growing concerns about climate change and energy security have fueled a rapid increase in the development of marine renewable energy installations (MREIs. The potential ecological consequences of increased use of these devices emphasizes the need for high quality environmental impact assessment (EIA. We demonstrate that these processes are hampered severely, primarily because ambiguities in the legislation and lack of clear implementation guidance are such that they do not ensure robust assessment of the significance of impacts and cumulative effects. We highlight why the regulatory framework leads to conceptual ambiguities and propose changes which, for the most part, do not require major adjustments to standard practice. We emphasize the importance of determining the degree of confidence in impacts to permit the likelihood as well as magnitude of impacts to be quantified and propose ways in which assessment of population-level impacts could be incorporated into the EIA process. Overall, however, we argue that, instead of trying to ascertain which particular developments are responsible for tipping an already heavily degraded marine environment into an undesirable state, emphasis should be placed on better strategic assessment.

  11. Using Water Quality Models in Management - A Multiple Model Assessment, Analysis of Confidence, and Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irby, Isaac David

    Human impacts on the Chesapeake Bay through increased nutrient run-off as a result of land-use change, urbanization, and industrialization, have resulted in a degradation of water quality over the last half-century. These direct impacts, compounded with human-induced climate changes such as warming, rising sea-level, and changes in precipitation, have elevated the conversation surrounding the future of water quality in the Bay. The overall goal of this dissertation project is to use a combination of models and data to better understand and quantify the impact of changes in nutrient loads and climate on water quality in the Chesapeake Bay. This research achieves that goal in three parts. First, a set of eight water quality models is used to establish a model mean and assess model skill. All models were found to exhibit similar skill in resolving dissolved oxygen concentrations as well as a number of dissolved oxygen-influencing variables (temperature, salinity, stratification, chlorophyll and nitrate) and the model mean exhibited the highest individual skill. The location of stratification within the water column was found to be a limiting factor in the models' ability to adequately simulate habitat compression resulting from low-oxygen conditions. Second, two of the previous models underwent the regulatory Chesapeake Bay pollution diet mandated by the Environmental Protection Agency. Both models exhibited a similar relative improvement in dissolved oxygen concentrations as a result of the reduction of nutrients stipulated in the pollution diet. A Confidence Index was developed to identify the locations of the Bay where the models are in agreement and disagreement regarding the impacts of the pollution diet. The models were least certain in the deep part of the upper main stem of the Bay and the uncertainty primarily stemmed from the post-processing methodology. Finally, by projecting the impacts of climate change in 2050 on the Bay, the potential success of the

  12. Uncertainty in projected impacts of climate change on biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia, Raquel A.

    Evidence for shifts in the phenologies and distributions of species over recent decades has often been attributed to climate change. The prospect of greater and faster changes in climate during the 21st century has spurred a stream of studies anticipating future biodiversity impacts. Yet, uncerta......Evidence for shifts in the phenologies and distributions of species over recent decades has often been attributed to climate change. The prospect of greater and faster changes in climate during the 21st century has spurred a stream of studies anticipating future biodiversity impacts. Yet......, uncertainty is inherent to both projected climate changes and their effects on biodiversity, and needs to be understood before projections can be used. This thesis seeks to elucidate some of the uncertainties clouding assessments of biodiversity impacts from climate change, and explores ways to address them...... models, are shown to be affected by multiple uncertainties. Different model algorithms produce different outputs, as do alternative future climate models and scenarios of future emissions of greenhouse gases. Another uncertainty arises due to omission of species with small sample sizes, which...

  13. Assessing the Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Change on Global Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batra, N.; Yang, Y. E.; Choi, H. I.; Islam, A.; Charlotte, D. F.; Cai, X.; Kumar, P.

    2007-12-01

    Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) significantly modify the hydrological regime of the watersheds, affecting water resources and environment from regional to global scale. This study seeks to advance and integrate water and energy cycle observation, scientific understanding, and human impacts to assess future water availability. To achieve the research objective, we integrate and interpret past and current space based and in situ observations into a global hydrologic model (GHM). GHM is developed with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution, physical complexity, hydrologic theory and processes to quantify the impact of LULCC on physical variables: surface runoff, subsurface flow, groundwater, infiltration, ET, soil moisture, etc. Coupled with the common land model (CLM), a 3-dimensional volume averaged soil-moisture transport (VAST) model is expanded to incorporate the lateral flow and subgrid heterogeneity. The model consists of 11 soil-hydrology layers to predict lateral as well as vertical moisture flux transport based on Richard's equations. The primary surface boundary conditions (SBCs) include surface elevation and its derivatives, land cover category, sand and clay fraction profiles, bedrock depth and fractional vegetation cover. A consistent global GIS-based dataset is constructed for the SBCs of the model from existing observational datasets comprising of various resolutions, map projections and data formats. Global ECMWF data at 6-hour time steps for the period 1971 through 2000 is processed to get the forcing data which includes incoming longwave and shortwave radiation, precipitation, air temperature, pressure, wind components, boundary layer height and specific humidity. Land use land cover data, generated using IPCC scenarios for every 10 years from 2000 to 2100 is used for future assessment on water resources. Alterations due to LULCC on surface water balance components: ET, groundwater recharge and runoff are then addressed in the study. Land

  14. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

  15. Climate change impact assessment on the hydrological regime of the Kaligandaki Basin, Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajracharya, Ajay Ratna; Bajracharya, Sagar Ratna; Shrestha, Arun Bhakta; Maharjan, Sudan Bikash

    2018-06-01

    The Hindu Kush-Himalayan region is an important global freshwater resource. The hydrological regime of the region is vulnerable to climatic variations, especially precipitation and temperature. In our study, we modelled the impact of climate change on the water balance and hydrological regime of the snow dominated Kaligandaki Basin. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for a future projection of changes in the hydrological regime of the Kaligandaki basin based on Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) of ensemble downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project's (CMIP5) General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs. It is predicted to be a rise in the average annual temperature of over 4°C, and an increase in the average annual precipitation of over 26% by the end of the 21st century under RCP 8.5 scenario. Modeling results show these will lead to significant changes in the basin's water balance and hydrological regime. In particular, a 50% increase in discharge is expected at the outlet of the basin. Snowmelt contribution will largely be affected by climate change, and it is projected to increase by 90% by 2090.Water availability in the basin is not likely to decrease during the 21st century. The study demonstrates that the important water balance components of snowmelt, evapotranspiration, and water yield at higher elevations in the upper and middle sub-basins of the Kaligandaki Basin will be most affected by the increasing temperatures and precipitation. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Socio-economic scenario development for the assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural land use: a pairwise comparison approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abildtrup, Jens; Audsley, E.; Fekete-Farkas, M.

    2006-01-01

    Assessment of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change is strongly dependent on concurrent changes in socio-economic development pathways. This paper presents an integrated approach to the construction of socio-economic scenarios required for the analysis of climate change impacts...... on European agricultural land use. The scenarios are interpreted from the storylines described in the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) special report on emission scenarios (SRES), which ensures internal consistency between the evolution of socio-economics and climate change. A stepwise...... downscaling procedure based on expert-judgement and pairwise comparison is presented to obtain quantitative socio-economic parameters, e.g. prices and productivity estimates that are input to the ACCELERATES integrated land use model. In the first step, the global driving forces are identified and quantified...

  17. Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA. An Integrated Assessment. Part 4. Water Resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomson, A.M.; Rosenberg, N.J.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Brown, R.A.; Srinivasan, R.

    2005-01-01

    Global climate change will impact the hydrologic cycle by increasing the capacity of the atmosphere to hold moisture. Anticipated impacts are generally increased evaporation at low latitudes and increased precipitation at middle and high latitudes. General Circulation Models (GCMs) used to simulate climate disagree on whether the U.S. as a whole and its constituent regions will receive more or less precipitation as global warming occurs. The impacts on specific regions will depend on changes in weather patterns and are certain to be complex. Here we apply the suite of 12 potential climate change scenarios, previously described in Part 1, to the Hydrologic Unit Model of the United States (HUMUS) to simulate water supply in the conterminous United States in reference to a baseline scenario. We examine the sufficiency of this water supply to meet changing demands of irrigated agriculture. The changes in water supply driven by changes in climate will likely be most consequential in the semi-arid western parts of the country where water yield is currently scarce and the resource is intensively managed. Changes of greater than ±50% with respect to present day water yield are projected in parts of the Midwest and Southwest U.S. Interannual variability in the water supply is likely to increase where conditions become drier and to decrease under wetter conditions

  18. Integrated assessment of adaptation to Climate change in Flevoland at the farm and regional level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wolf, J.; Mandryk, M.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Oort, van P.A.J.; Schaap, B.F.; Reidsma, P.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2011-01-01

    A key objective of the AgriAdapt project is to assess climate change impacts on agriculture including adaptation at regional and farm type level in combination with market and technological changes. More specifically, the developed methodologies enable (a) the assessment of impacts, risks and

  19. Assessing climate change impacts on soil salinity development with proximal and satellite sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changes in climate patterns have dramatically influenced some agricultural areas. Examples include the historic 5-year drought in California’s San Joaquin Valley (SJV) and the 20-year above average annual rainfall in the Red River Valley (RRV) of the Midwestern USA. Climate change may have impacted ...

  20. Assessing climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for smallholder agricultural systems in Uganda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bagamba, F.; Bashaasha, B.; Claessens, L.F.G.; Antle, J.

    2012-01-01

    The debate on whether climate change will impact on peoples’ livelihoods and, hence, the need to act is essentially over and has instead shifted to the development of strategies needed by different regions and countries to adapt to climate change effects. However, there is still scanty information

  1. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-01-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

  2. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-13

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  3. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  4. Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina-Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia; Sastre-Merlín, Antonio; Jeppesen, Erik

    2014-02-01

    Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed for a small Mediterranean catchment to quantify the potential effects of various climate and land use change scenarios on catchment hydrology as well as the trophic state of a new kind of waterbody, a limno-reservoir (Pareja Limno-reservoir), created for environmental and recreational purposes. We also checked for the possible synergistic effects of changes in climate and land use on water flow and nutrient exports from the catchment. Simulations showed a noticeable impact of climate change in the river flow regime and consequently the water level of the limno-reservoir, especially during summer, complicating the fulfillment of its purposes. Most of the scenarios also predicted a deterioration of trophic conditions in the limno-reservoir. Fertilization and soil erosion were the main factors affecting nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed noticeable synergistic effects on nutrients exports, relative to running the scenarios individually. While the impact of fertilization on nitrate export is projected to be reduced with warming in most cases, an additional 13% increase in the total phosphorus export is expected in the worst-case combined scenario compared to the sum of individual scenarios. Our model framework may help water managers to assess and manage how these multiple environmental stressors interact and ultimately affect aquatic ecosystems.

  5. Impact assessment revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thiele, Jan; Kollmann, Johannes Christian; Markussen, Bo

    2010-01-01

    ; and (4) the total invaded range is an inappropriate measure for quantifying regional impact because the habitat area available for invasion can vary markedly among invasive species. Mathematical models and empirical data using an invasive alien plant species (Heracleum mantegazzianum) indicate......The theoretical underpinnings of the assessment of invasive alien species impacts need to be improved. At present most approaches are unreliable to quantify impact at regional scales and do not allow for comparison of different invasive species. There are four basic problems that need...... and we discuss the quantification of the invaded range. These improvements are crucial for impact assessment with the overall aim of prioritizing management of invasive species....

  6. Environmental impact assessment in the Fijian state sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turnbull, Jane

    2003-01-01

    For over 20 years, the South Pacific state of Fiji has required developers to conduct more than 70 environmental impact assessments (EIA), without specifying the environmental quality or impacts it considers (in)appropriate. It has ignored aspects of EIA to which agencies funding development have paid little attention--assessing alternatives, monitoring outcomes and enforcing consent conditions. This infers the Fijian state is not serious about using EIA to control environmental quality. Factors other than technical shortcomings are shaping the way the state constrains EIA practice. Unless these factors change, the comprehensive EIA system proposed in Sustainable Development legislation will not prevent environmental degradation

  7. Environmental impact assessment report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, K. J.; Paik, S. T.; Chung, U. S.; Jung, K. H.; Park, S. K.; Lee, D. G.; Kim, H. R.; Kim, J. K.; Yang, S. H.; Lee, B. J.; Kim, E. H.; Choi, K. S

    2000-10-01

    This report is the revised Environmental Impact Assessment Report which was made and submitted as one of the license documents for TRIGA Research Reactor D and D Project. The Environmental Impact Assessment Report includes introduction of decommissioning plan, status of reactors and environmental impact of surroundings. Also it was assessed and analyzed on radioactivity for environment, and the plan was established to minimize radioactive material release. Finally environmental monitoring plan was established to confirm whether contaminated or not from radioactivity during decommissioning period. According to the assessment results, the risk of excess exposure will be not on environment and public. The first Environmental Impact Assessment Report was submitted to the government for the license and reviewed by Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety. The first Report was revised including answers for the questions arising from review process.

  8. Assessing climate change impacts on the Iberian power system using a coupled water-power model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cardenal, Silvio Javier Pereira; Madsen, Henrik; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is expected to have a negative impact on the power system of the Iberian Peninsula; changes in river runoff are expected to reduce hydropower generation, while higher temperatures are expected to increase summer electricity demand, when water resources are already limited. However,...... to balance agricultural, power, and environmental objectives in the operation of Iberian reservoirs, though some impacts could be mitigated by better alignment between temporal patterns of irrigation and power demands....... patterns of electricity demand caused by temperature changes, and changes in irrigation water use caused by temperature and precipitation changes. A stochastic dynamic programming approach was used to develop operating rules for the integrated system given hydrological uncertainty. We found that changes...

  9. New directions in climate change vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation assessment: summary of a workshop

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    National Research Council (U.S.). Subcommittee for a Workshop on New Directions in Vulnerability, Impacts, and Adaptation Assessment; National Academies Press (U.S.); National Research Council (U.S.). Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education; National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change; Brewer, Jennifer F

    ...; adaptation is inevitable. The remaining question is to what extent humans will anticipate and reduce undesired consequences of climate change, or postpone response until after climate change impacts have altered ecological...

  10. Social Impact Assessment in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Hansen, Anne Merrild; Lyhne, Ivar

    2015-01-01

    Social impact assessment (SIA) is applied worldwide to assess social impacts of plans and projects. In Europe, directives on environmental assessment (EA) require attention to social impacts, however, there is a need to investigate the implementation in practise. To this end, we study three Danish...... are not suggested or are postponed and the geographical distribution of impacts assessed is biased towards including negative local impacts. We discuss the scope and handling of social impacts, and possible implications. Based on this, we conclude with the view that EA might do the job of handling social impacts...... cases, which are characterised by debates and conflicts on social issues. Analysis of the EA statements shows inclusion of a broad range of social impacts. However, the EAs do not fully match the concerns of the public, and social impacts are not always analysed in depth, mitigation measures...

  11. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  12. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

  13. Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Taiwan

    OpenAIRE

    An-Yuan Tsai Wen-Cheng Huang

    2011-01-01

    This paper establishes a comprehensive assessment model to measure the regional impact of climate change on Taiwan¡¦s water resources. Working from future rainfall data simulated by Japan¡¦s high-resolution GCM model JMA/MRI TL959L60 in a SRES-A1B scenario, we first apply climate change to an assessment model of renewable water resources to estimate the volume of renewable water resources on a regional basis. We then conduct a water resources system simulation based on estimates of future wat...

  14. Environmental Impact Assessment for Olkiluoto 4 Nuclear Power Plant Unit in Finland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dersten, Riitta; Gahmberg, Sini; Takala, Jenni

    2008-01-01

    In order to improve its readiness for constructing additional production capacity, Teollisuuden Voima Oyj (TVO) initiated in spring 2007 the environmental impact assessment procedure (EIA procedure) concerning a new nuclear power plant unit that would possibly be located at Olkiluoto. When assessing the environmental impacts of the Olkiluoto nuclear power plant extension project, the present state of the environment was first examined, and after that, the changes caused by the projects as well as their significance were assessed, taking into account the combined impacts of the operations at Olkiluoto. The environmental impact assessment for the planned nuclear power plant unit covers the entire life cycle of the plant unit. (authors)

  15. Environmental Impact Assessment for Olkiluoto 4 Nuclear Power Plant Unit in Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dersten, Riitta; Gahmberg, Sini; Takala, Jenni [Teollisuuden Voima Oyj, Olkiluoto, FI-27160 Eurajoki (Finland)

    2008-07-01

    In order to improve its readiness for constructing additional production capacity, Teollisuuden Voima Oyj (TVO) initiated in spring 2007 the environmental impact assessment procedure (EIA procedure) concerning a new nuclear power plant unit that would possibly be located at Olkiluoto. When assessing the environmental impacts of the Olkiluoto nuclear power plant extension project, the present state of the environment was first examined, and after that, the changes caused by the projects as well as their significance were assessed, taking into account the combined impacts of the operations at Olkiluoto. The environmental impact assessment for the planned nuclear power plant unit covers the entire life cycle of the plant unit. (authors)

  16. Dynamics of productivity change in the Australian electricity industry: Assessing the impacts of electricity reform

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aghdam, Reza Fathollahzadeh, E-mail: reza_f_a@yahoo.com [Department of Finance and Economics, College of Industrial Management, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, PO Box 257, Dhahran 31261 (Saudi Arabia)

    2011-06-15

    The Australian electricity industry has undergone a significant reform, since the mid-1990s. Key changes comprised functional unbundling, market restructuring, regulatory reform, public corporatisation and privatisation. Technological development has been another indisputable constituent of these changes, in the wake of ICT revolution. The principle rationale behind these changes has been that they would improve productivity of the industry and social well-being of people. This paper examines the dynamics of productivity changes in the Australian electricity industry and conducts several hypotheses-testings to identify whether industry's efficiency measures are truly improved as a result of the reform-driven changes. Malmquist Total Factor Productivity Index approach and ANOVA are used for this purpose. The results reveal that the productivity gains in the industry have been largely driven by technological improvements and, to a lesser extent, by reform-induced comparative efficiency gains. On average at national level and for the entire industry, there are efficiency gains that, to large extents, can be attributed to functional unbundling and public corporatisation and, to a lesser extent, to market restructuring and privatisation. The results, however, reveal that the reform-driven changes have made insignificant contribution to comparative efficiency, at the level of thermal generation. - Highlights: > Dynamics of productivity changes in Australian electricity industry are examined. > Several hypotheses are also tested against reform-driven changes. > Technology impact is proved to be far larger than reform-induced impacts. > Unbundling and corporatisation had larger impacts than market restructuring and privatisation. > At thermal generation level, no reform-induced impact is encountered.

  17. Dynamics of productivity change in the Australian electricity industry: Assessing the impacts of electricity reform

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aghdam, Reza Fathollahzadeh

    2011-01-01

    The Australian electricity industry has undergone a significant reform, since the mid-1990s. Key changes comprised functional unbundling, market restructuring, regulatory reform, public corporatisation and privatisation. Technological development has been another indisputable constituent of these changes, in the wake of ICT revolution. The principle rationale behind these changes has been that they would improve productivity of the industry and social well-being of people. This paper examines the dynamics of productivity changes in the Australian electricity industry and conducts several hypotheses-testings to identify whether industry's efficiency measures are truly improved as a result of the reform-driven changes. Malmquist Total Factor Productivity Index approach and ANOVA are used for this purpose. The results reveal that the productivity gains in the industry have been largely driven by technological improvements and, to a lesser extent, by reform-induced comparative efficiency gains. On average at national level and for the entire industry, there are efficiency gains that, to large extents, can be attributed to functional unbundling and public corporatisation and, to a lesser extent, to market restructuring and privatisation. The results, however, reveal that the reform-driven changes have made insignificant contribution to comparative efficiency, at the level of thermal generation. - Highlights: → Dynamics of productivity changes in Australian electricity industry are examined. → Several hypotheses are also tested against reform-driven changes. → Technology impact is proved to be far larger than reform-induced impacts. → Unbundling and corporatisation had larger impacts than market restructuring and privatisation. → At thermal generation level, no reform-induced impact is encountered.

  18. Assessing farmer use of climate change adaptation practices and impacts on food security and poverty in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akhter Ali

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is set to be particularly disruptive in poor agricultural communities. We assess the factors influencing farmers’ choice of climate change adaptation practices and associated impacts on household food security and poverty in Pakistan using comprehensive data from 950 farmers from its major provinces. A probit model was used to investigate the factors influencing the use of climate-change adaptation practices; the censored least absolute deviation (CLAD was used to analyze the determinants of the number of adaptation practices used; and a propensity score matching (PSM approach was employed to evaluate the impact of adaptation practices on food security and poverty levels. Adjustment in sowing time (22% households, use of drought tolerant varieties (15% and shifting to new crops (25% were the three major adaptation practices used by farmers in the study area. Results show that younger farmers and farmers with higher levels of education are more likely to use these adaptation practices, as do farmers that are wealthier, farm more land and have joint families. The number of adaptation practices used was found to be positively associated with education, male household heads, land size, household size, extension services, access to credit and wealth. Farmers adopting more adaptation practices had higher food security levels (8–13% than those who did not, and experienced lower levels of poverty (3–6%. Climate change adaptation practices at farm level can thereby have significant development outcomes in addition to reducing exposure to weather risks.

  19. Influence of the human reliability in the assessment of the impact on the risk of changes of CLO

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martorell, P.; Martorell, S.; Marton, I.; Saiz, M.

    2014-01-01

    Treatment and study of epistemic uncertainties is of special importance in the application of the analysis of probabilistic security to informed decision-making in risk, as points out the guide regulatory 1,174 [1] (Regulatory Guide 1,174, RG1.174). Specifically, the RG 1.177 [2] details of the impact on risk assessment concerning changes in the technical operating specifications (ETF). Based on the framework defined by such regulatory guides, will be assessed the effect of uncertainties epistemic associated with the analysis of human reliability in the context of the limit conditions of operation. As an example of application, will be held a sensitivity study of the time of inoperability Completion Time, the Residual heat removal system. (Author)

  20. Climate Change and Fruit-Picking Tourism: Impact and Adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this work is to present phenology as a valid indicator and methodology for monitoring and assessing the impact of climate change on plant-based tourist activities. Fruit-picking has become a popular rural tourism activity worldwide. However, fruit maturity dates (FMD have been affected by climate change (CC, which has in turn profoundly affected fruit-picking tourism activities (FPTA. In this paper, phenological data on the FMD for 45 types of plants in 1980–2012, dates for more than 200 fruit-picking festivals, and data on monthly average air temperature in 1980–2013 were used to assess the impact of CC on FPTA by wavelet and correlation analyses. The findings indicated that the study area had been significantly affected by CC. Prevailing temperatures at one or three months prior have a decisive influence on FMD. Among the 11 plants directly related to FPTA, the FMD of four were significantly advanced, while 6-7 were significantly delayed owning to increased temperature. Of the 11 FPTA, only two had realized the impact of CC and had adjusted festival opening dates based on dynamic changes. However, a considerable number of festival activities remained fixed or scheduled on the weekends.

  1. Climate change impacts on U.S. coastal and marine ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scavia, Donald; Field, John C.; Boesch, Donald F.; Buddemeier, Robert W.; Burkett, Virginia; Cayan, Daniel R.; Fogarty, Michael; Harwell, Mark A.; Howarth, Robert W.; Mason, Curt; Reed, Denise J.; Royer, Thomas C.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Titus, James G.

    2002-01-01

    Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO2. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO2 levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction

  2. Assessment of human impacts on landuse and vegetation cover ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessment of human impacts on landuse and vegetation cover changes in Mubi region, Adamawa state, Nigeria; remote sensing and GIS approach. ... Global Journal of Environmental Sciences. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL ...

  3. A structural Ricardian valuation of climate change impacts on agriculture in Pakistan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahmed, Mirza Nomman

    2013-07-01

    This book presents the economic analysis of the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Pakistan. Particular emphasis is laid on the magnitude of implicit adaptations in overall climate impact assessment and the analysis of selected adaptation options. Using a hedonic pricing model and a revealed choice approach, this study identifies the impacts of climate change on agricultural incomes, depicts the spatial patterns and seasonality of the impacts, and models the future adaptation behavior of farmers in the crop sector. A high sensitivity of farming in Pakistan to climate change is confirmed. With a changing climate and income in mind, farmers in Pakistan are more likely to choose rice, vegetables and maize, whereas they move away from wheat, sugarcane, cotton and fruits.

  4. A structural Ricardian valuation of climate change impacts on agriculture in Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, Mirza Nomman

    2013-01-01

    This book presents the economic analysis of the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Pakistan. Particular emphasis is laid on the magnitude of implicit adaptations in overall climate impact assessment and the analysis of selected adaptation options. Using a hedonic pricing model and a revealed choice approach, this study identifies the impacts of climate change on agricultural incomes, depicts the spatial patterns and seasonality of the impacts, and models the future adaptation behavior of farmers in the crop sector. A high sensitivity of farming in Pakistan to climate change is confirmed. With a changing climate and income in mind, farmers in Pakistan are more likely to choose rice, vegetables and maize, whereas they move away from wheat, sugarcane, cotton and fruits.

  5. Does environmental impact assessment really support technological change? Analyzing alternatives to coal-fired power stations in Denmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lund, H.; Hvelplund, F.

    1997-01-01

    Danish energy policy calls for development of decentralized, cleaner technologies to replace conventional power stations and, since 1990, aims to reduce CO 2 emissions in 2005 to 20% below their 1988 level. These political goals require a technological change, from conventional, central power stations to cleaner, decentralized technologies such as energy conservation, cogeneration, and renewable energy. In principle, environmental impact assessment (EIA) supports this change on a project-by-project basis. The EU directive on EIA was based on the preventive principle: to eliminate pollution source rather than attempting to counteract it subsequently. According to the Danish implementation of the directive, an EIA must review a project's main alternatives and the environmental consequences of the alternatives. If this were done properly, EIAs could assist Denmark in meeting its CO 2 reduction goals. However, because EIA is implemented on a restricted, regional basis, it does not support technological change. Responsibility for the preparation of the EIA is given to the regional authorities through a law which does not require alternatives to be assessed that extend geographically beyond the boundaries of a regional authority. Thus, there is no certainty of serious analysis of cleaner technology alternatives to large coal-fired power stations. This conclusion is based on examination of three case studies using a participatory research method

  6. A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

    2017-05-01

    Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

  7. A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

    2017-05-01

    Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

  8. Methodology for impact assessment in the estuarine/marine environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haven, K.F.

    1975-01-01

    Impacts on the estuarine/marine environment can be assessed in economic terms by tracing the impact flow out of the economic sector through the marine environment and back into the economic sector as changes in natural resource availability. An impact can then be measured by the changes created in the economic sector by changes in resource availability. Primary emphasis is placed on the development of an appropriate ecological model of the estuarine environment for this purpose. Two types, an ecological input/output model and a dynamic (difference equation) model, are proposed. Acceptability criteria for these models include the ability to track lethal and sublethal, direct and indirect (food web), and short- and long-term effects of a variety of pollutants related to the production and use of various energy resources

  9. Towards improved socio-economic assessments of ocean acidification's impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilmi, Nathalie; Allemand, Denis; Dupont, Sam; Safa, Alain; Haraldsson, Gunnar; Nunes, Paulo A L D; Moore, Chris; Hattam, Caroline; Reynaud, Stéphanie; Hall-Spencer, Jason M; Fine, Maoz; Turley, Carol; Jeffree, Ross; Orr, James; Munday, Philip L; Cooley, Sarah R

    2013-01-01

    Ocean acidification is increasingly recognized as a component of global change that could have a wide range of impacts on marine organisms, the ecosystems they live in, and the goods and services they provide humankind. Assessment of these potential socio-economic impacts requires integrated efforts between biologists, chemists, oceanographers, economists and social scientists. But because ocean acidification is a new research area, significant knowledge gaps are preventing economists from estimating its welfare impacts. For instance, economic data on the impact of ocean acidification on significant markets such as fisheries, aquaculture and tourism are very limited (if not non-existent), and non-market valuation studies on this topic are not yet available. Our paper summarizes the current understanding of future OA impacts and sets out what further information is required for economists to assess socio-economic impacts of ocean acidification. Our aim is to provide clear directions for multidisciplinary collaborative research.

  10. Assessing environmental impacts in a life cycle perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    2005-01-01

    is focused on the product system which comprises all the processes which the product and its components meet throughout their lives- from the extraction of raw materials via manufacture, use and waste management to final disposal, or in short from the cradle to the grave (see Figure 1). The focus......What are the environmental impacts from an armchairor a cellular phone or a steak, if you take into account all the activities needed to produce, maintain, use or consume and eventually dispose of it? Life cycle impact assessment is the part of life cycle assessment (LCA) where the inventory...... of material flows in the life cycle of a product are translated into environmental impacts and consumption of resources, and questions like these are given an answer. The environmental impacts may range from very local (e.g. land use) to global (like climate change). As an environmental analysis tool, LCA...

  11. Alternatives and implication in process of environmental impact assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tauš Peter

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available EIA is an interactive, rule-based expert system for the environmental impact assessment. It is designed for a screening level assessment of development projects at a pre-feasibility stage. Typical problems for the evaluation include: resettlement; watershed degradation; encroachment upon precious ecosystems; encroachment on historical/cultural values; watershed erosion; reservoir siltation; impairment of navigation; changes in groundwater hydrology, waterlogging; seepage and evaporation losses; migration of valuable fish species; inundation of mineral resources/forests; other inundation losses and adverse effects. It is important to prevent environmental pollution when carrying out large-scale development projects, such as artificial change of landscapes and building of certain structures that may cause a tremendous impact on the environment. In accordance with Cities Environmental Impact Assessment Departments it is necessary to provide project organisers with a necessary advice and instructions concerning the environmental impact assessment a survey to predict and evaluate environmental impact to be conducted by project organisers. Prior to offering the advice and instructions, cities need to hear the opinions of residents of the areas concerned, mayors of related municipalities and other opinion leaders, including specialists, to reflect their views in the environmental preservation. The first aspect in any quality assessment is to determine the representativeness of data both in terms of physical siting and data collected. It must be recognised the environment is a dynamic fluid; quality therefore varies over space and time. There will be locations in any community that experience poorer quality than recorded at a monitoring station. Likewise other sites will have a better quality. Most communities have only a single monitoring site. Therefore, the air quality monitors are sited to provide a representative estimate of the community exposure

  12. Macrophyte assemblage composition as a simple tool to assess global change in coastal areas. Freshwater impacts and climatic changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buosi, Alessandro; Sfriso, Adriano

    2017-12-15

    Macrophyte assemblages are one of the most sensitive biological communities to assess anthropogenic impacts and climate changes. Community composition responds very quickly to environmental changes driving towards a predictable composition. The increase or decrease of the trophic status (i.e. nutrient concentrations, suspended particulate matter, Chlorophyll-a) and temperature are the most important factors responsible for the replacement of taxa of high ecological value (sensitive taxa) with opportunistic species. A qualitative and quantitative study of macrophytes in 4 areas along the coasts of the Northern Adriatic Sea, from Venice (Italy) to Savudrija (Croatia) and the analysis of river outflows in this region during one year (May 2012-April 2013) provided information about their spatial variability. The coasts of the Veneto Region and Friuli-Venezia Giulia, which are affected by significant freshwater inputs, showed a strong biodiversity reduction or a dominance of thionitrophilic taxa. No seagrasses colonized these areas. On the other hand, the coasts of Croatia had negligible fresh water inputs and macrophyte communities were dominated by sensitive taxa such as the seagrass Cymodocea nodosa and some species belonging to genus Cystoseira. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Economic perspectives on the impact of climate variability and change: A summary report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timmerman, P.; Grima, A.P.

    1988-01-01

    A summary is presented of a collection of papers on the economic methodologies applicable to studies of the impact of global climate variability and change. The research was sponsored by the Canadian Climate program and was conducted as part of a project investigating the potential impacts on various sectors of the Canadian economy of climate warming due to the greenhouse effect. Topics of the papers include microeconomic analysis, benefit/cost analysis, input-output analysis, policy options regarding water levels in the Great Lakes, the scenario approach to assessing socio-economic sensitivities to climate change in the agri-food sector, and analysis of weather impacts. Several analytical tools are seen to be readily applicable to economic analyses of the effects of climate change, and issues of future water supply and demand are seen as central to climate impact assessment, and of particular concern to Canada

  14. Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Maize Production in the Southern and Western Highlands Sub-agro Ecological Zones of Tanzania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philbert M. Luhunga

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC fourth assessment report confirmed that climate change is unequivocal. It is coming to us faster with larger impacts and bigger risks than even most climate scientists expected as recently as a few years ago. One particular worry is the disastrous consequence to agriculture and food security sectors in many parts of the world, particularly in developing countries. Adaptation is the only option to reduce the impacts of climate change. However, before planning adaptation policies or strategies to climate change, it is important to assess the impacts of climate change at regional and local scale to have scientific evidence that would guide the formulation of such policies or strategies. In this study the impacts of climate change on rain-fed maize (Zea Mays production in the southern and western highlands sub-agro ecological zones of Tanzania are evaluated. High resolution climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment_Regional Climate Models (CORDEX_RCMs were used as input into the Decision Support System for Agro-technological Transfer (DSSAT to simulate maize yield in the historical climate condition (1971–2000, present (2010–2039, mid (2040–2069, and end (2070–2099 centuries. Daily rainfall, solar radiations, minimum and maximum temperatures for the historical (1971–2000 climate condition and future climate projections (2010–2099 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used to drive DSSAT. The impacts of climate change were assessed by comparing the average maize yields in historical climate condition against the average of simulated maize yields in the present, mid and end centuries under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results of future maize yields estimates from DSSAT driven by individual RCMs under both RCP scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 differs from one RCM to another and from one scenario to another. This highlight

  15. Impacts of Land Cover Changes on Climate over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, L.; Frauenfeld, O. W.

    2014-12-01

    Land cover changes can influence regional climate through modifying the surface energy balance and water fluxes, and can also affect climate at large scales via changes in atmospheric general circulation. With rapid population growth and economic development, China has experienced significant land cover changes, such as deforestation, grassland degradation, and farmland expansion. In this study, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is used to investigate the climate impacts of anthropogenic land cover changes over China. To isolate the climatic effects of land cover change, we focus on the CAM and CLM models, with prescribed climatological sea surface temperature and sea ice cover. Two experiments were performed, one with current vegetation and the other with potential vegetation. Current vegetation conditions were derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite observations, and potential vegetation over China was obtained from Ramankutty and Foley's global potential vegetation dataset. Impacts of land cover changes on surface air temperature and precipitation are assessed based on the difference of the two experiments. Results suggest that land cover changes have a cold-season cooling effect in a large region of China, but a warming effect in summer. These temperature changes can be reconciled with albedo forcing and evapotranspiration. Moreover, impacts on atmospheric circulation and the Asian Monsoon is also discussed.

  16. About climate changes impact on the Kazakhstan pastures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lebed', L.V.; Belenkova, Z.S.; Turbacheva, T.P.

    1997-01-01

    Assessment of arid pastures vulnerability situated under direct influence of regional climate change related with greenhouse effect is carried out on Northern Aral Sea area as example. Climate change variants calculated with future prospects for on Kazakhstan territory with use up-to-date models of GFDL (USA), CCCM (Canada) climate theory are used. Number of protective measures are proposed for mitigation of consequences of possible vulnerability of pastures during simultaneous impact of complex of anthropogenic and natural factors. (author)

  17. Social impact assessment and management methodology using social indicators and planning strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsen, M.E.; Curry, M.G.; Greene, M.R.; Melber, B.D.; Merwin, D.J.

    1978-08-01

    The scope of environmental impact statements prepared during the past few years has steadily expanded to incorporate all aspects of the social as well as the natural environment, including demographic, economic, social, political, and cultural conditions. Broadly conceived, social impacts are alterations in people's living conditions that occur in conjunction with a new policy, program, or project, and that (1) are in addition to all other concurrent changes produced by other factors, and (2) are seen by those affected as significant social events. Since any social environment is constantly changing, the crucial problems in analyzing social impacts are to identify those social alterations that are a direct or indirect result of the specific action under examination, apart from all other events and changes, and to determine which of these alterations are having significant social effects on the people involved. Three features of this conception of social impacts are especially noteworthy. First, although impacts are often thought of as undesirable or detrimental in nature, they may also be desirable or beneficial. Second, although impacts are often described as caused by prior intervening innovations, in reality they always interact with their original causes in a reciprocal process, either immediately or after some time lag. Third, the purpose of social impact assessment is to enable policy makers to anticipate and plan for potential impacts before they occur, and then act to prevent or mitigate undesired impacts. A new methodology for performing social impact assessment and management studies that meet current needs by emphasizing standardized social indicators and social planning techniques is proposed. We refer to our approach as the Social Impact and Planning (SIP) method of social impact assessment

  18. Environmental impacts of flood control measures in climate change adaptation strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brudler, Sarah; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    it on the surface without harming assets. When evaluating different adaptation approaches, a cost assessment is typically carried out, while environmental impacts usually are not considered. To close this gap, a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) based method is developed, which allows to quantify environmental impacts...... only contribute up to 4% of the environmental impacts for the CMP and less than 1% for the SSA. Our method helps explain how the handling of everyday events and extreme rain events affect the environmental sustainability of climate change adaptation and it enables cities to consider the environmental......Because of climatic changes, large investments are needed to keep flood risk at an acceptable level in urban areas. Increasing dimensions of underground sewer systems and retention basins are increasingly supplemented with multi-functional approaches, aimed at managing water locally and/or route...

  19. Assessing climate change impacts on wheat production (a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Valizadeh

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is one of the major challenges facing humanity in the future and effect of climate change has been detrimental to agricultural industry. The aim of this study was to simulate the effects of climate change on the maturity period, leaf area index (LAI, biomass and grain yield of wheat under future climate change for the Sistan and Baluchestan region in Iran. For this purpose, two general circulation models HadCM3 and IPCM4 under three scenarios A1B, B1 and A2 in three time periods 2020, 2050 and 2080 were used. LARS-WG model was used for simulating climatic parameters for each period and CERES-Wheat model was used to simulate wheat growth. The results of model evaluation showed that LARS-WG had appropriate prediction for climatic parameters and simulation of stochastic growing season in future climate change conditions for the studied region. Wheat growing season period in all scenarios of climate change was reduced compared to the current situation. Possible reasons were the increase in temperature rate and the accelerated growth stages of wheat. This reduction in B1 scenario was less than A1B and A2 scenarios. Maximum wheat LAI in all scenarios, except scenario A1B in 2050, is decreased compared to the current situation. Yield and biological yield of wheat in both general circulation models under all scenarios and all times were reduced in comparison with current conditions and the lowest reduction was related to B1 scenario. In general, the results showed that wheat production in the future will be affected by climate change and will decrease in the studied region. To reduce these risks, the impact of climate change mitigation strategies and management systems for crop adaptation to climate change conditions should be considered.

  20. Assessing the Impacts of Multiple Breadbasket Failures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casellas Connors, J. P.; Janetos, A.

    2016-12-01

    A relatively small area of the world accounts for a large proportion of total global cereal production, with most of the area devoted to the production of the world's three major cereal crops, rice, wheat and maize. An extensive literature of the sensitivity of agricultural productivity of these crops, and many others, has arisen over the past 25 years, with a general consensus that continued change in the physical climate system will very likely increase the difficulty of agricultural production in areas of the world that are already marginal with respect to production. But what this research only rarely does is assess the influence of extreme events in shocking agricultural production, and how the rest of the agricultural system reacts, in terms of prices, food insecurity, subsequent land-use change, and terrestrial carbon emissions, among many other possible responses. Because the agricultural system is interlinked with energy systems, food distribution and transportation systems, and economic systems, models that focus only on agricultural productivity can only provide a unidimensional view of the magnitude of potential impacts. We know such impacts can occur as a consequence of extreme climatic events, because they have - the impact of the severe regional drought and heat wave on the Russian and Ukrainian wheat harvests in 2010 had global consequences for food prices, just as one example. In this paper, we use an Integrated Assessment Model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), to investigate the potential outcomes of both moderate and severe shocks to agricultural productivity in the major breadbaskets of the world - both singly and in combination. The results demonstrate clearly that there are likely to be multidimensional consequences from the kinds of shocks that are possible from a rapidly changing climate system, especially when combined with other demographic and economic trends in the coming decades. These results are only one aspect of

  1. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  2. Nation-wide assessment of climate change impacts on crops in the Philippines and Peru as part of multi-disciplinary modelling framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture is vulnerable to environmental changes, and climate change has been recognized as one of the most devastating factors. In many developing countries, however, few studies have focused on nation-wide assessment of crop yield and crop suitability in the future, and hence there is a large pressure on science to provide policy makers with solid predictions for major crops in the countries in support of climate risk management policies and programmes. FAO has developed the tool MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change) where statistical climate downscaling is combined with crop yield projections under climate change scenarios. Three steps are required to get the results: 1. The historical meteorological data such as temperature and precipitation for about 30 years were collected, and future climates were statistically downscaled to the local scale, 2. The historical crop yield data were collected and regression functions were made to estimate the yield by using observed climatic data and water balance during the growing period for each crop, and 3. The yield changes in the future were estimated by using the future climate data, produced by the first step, as an input to the yield regression functions. The yield was first simulated at sub-national scale and aggregated to national scale, which is intended to provide national policies with adaptation options. The methodology considers future changes in characteristics of extreme weather events as the climate projections are on daily scale while crop simulations are on 10-daily scale. Yields were simulated with two greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs) for three GCMs per crop to account for uncertainties in projections. The crop assessment constitutes a larger multi-disciplinary assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture and vulnerability of livelihoods in terms of food security (e.g. water resources, agriculture market, household-level food security from socio

  3. Bias-correction and Spatial Disaggregation for Climate Change Impact Assessments at a basin scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyunt, Cho; Koike, Toshio; Yamamoto, Akio; Nemoto, Toshihoro; Kitsuregawa, Masaru

    2013-04-01

    Basin-scale climate change impact studies mainly rely on general circulation models (GCMs) comprising the related emission scenarios. Realistic and reliable data from GCM is crucial for national scale or basin scale impact and vulnerability assessments to build safety society under climate change. However, GCM fail to simulate regional climate features due to the imprecise parameterization schemes in atmospheric physics and coarse resolution scale. This study describes how to exclude some unsatisfactory GCMs with respect to focused basin, how to minimize the biases of GCM precipitation through statistical bias correction and how to cover spatial disaggregation scheme, a kind of downscaling, within in a basin. GCMs rejection is based on the regional climate features of seasonal evolution as a bench mark and mainly depends on spatial correlation and root mean square error of precipitation and atmospheric variables over the target region. Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and Japanese 25-uear Reanalysis Project (JRA-25) are specified as references in figuring spatial pattern and error of GCM. Statistical bias-correction scheme comprises improvements of three main flaws of GCM precipitation such as low intensity drizzled rain days with no dry day, underestimation of heavy rainfall and inter-annual variability of local climate. Biases of heavy rainfall are conducted by generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) fitting over a peak over threshold series. Frequency of rain day error is fixed by rank order statistics and seasonal variation problem is solved by using a gamma distribution fitting in each month against insi-tu stations vs. corresponding GCM grids. By implementing the proposed bias-correction technique to all insi-tu stations and their respective GCM grid, an easy and effective downscaling process for impact studies at the basin scale is accomplished. The proposed method have been examined its applicability to some of the basins in various climate

  4. Selection of a representative subset of global climate models that captures the profile of regional changes for integrated climate impacts assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex C. Ruane

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract We present the Representative Temperature and Precipitation (T&P GCM Subsetting Approach developed within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP to select a practical subset of global climate models (GCMs for regional integrated assessment of climate impacts when resource limitations do not permit the full ensemble of GCMs to be evaluated given the need to also focus on impacts sector and economics models. Subsetting inherently leads to a loss of information but can free up resources to explore important uncertainties in the integrated assessment that would otherwise be prohibitive. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach identifies five individual GCMs that capture a profile of the full ensemble of temperature and precipitation change within the growing season while maintaining information about the probability that basic classes of climate changes (relatively cool/wet, cool/dry, middle, hot/wet, and hot/dry are projected in the full GCM ensemble. We demonstrate the selection methodology for maize impacts in Ames, Iowa, and discuss limitations and situations when additional information may be required to select representative GCMs. We then classify 29 GCMs over all land areas to identify regions and seasons with characteristic diagonal skewness related to surface moisture as well as extreme skewness connected to snow-albedo feedbacks and GCM uncertainty. Finally, we employ this basic approach to recognize that GCM projections demonstrate coherence across space, time, and greenhouse gas concentration pathway. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach provides a quantitative basis for the determination of useful GCM subsets, provides a practical and coherent approach where previous assessments selected solely on availability of scenarios, and may be extended for application to a range of scales and sectoral impacts.

  5. Impacts of Participatory Modeling on Climate Change-related Water Management Impacts in Sonora, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halvorsen, K. E.; Kossak, D. J.; Mayer, A. S.; Vivoni, E. R.; Robles-Morua, A.; Gamez Molina, V.; Dana, K.; Mirchi, A.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change-related impacts on water resources are expected to be particularly severe in the arid developing world. As a result, we conducted a series of participatory modeling workshops on hydrologic and water resources systems modeling in the face of climate change in Sonora, Mexico. Pre-surveys were administered to participants on Day 1 of a series of four workshops spaced out over three months in 2013. Post-surveys repeated many pre-survey questions and included questions assessing the quality of the workshops and models. We report on significant changes in participant perceptions of water resource models and problems and their assessment of the workshops. These findings will be of great value to future participatory modeling efforts, particularly within the developing world.

  6. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  7. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  8. Assessing the hydrological impacts of agricultural changes upstream of the Tunisian World Heritage sea-connected Ichkeul Lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Aouissi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The impact of changes in agricultural land use and practices as a controlling driver of hydrologic response and as a source of diffuse pollution, are studied in the Joumine River basin, discharging into the Ichkeul Lake, northern Tunisia, a UNESCO World Heritage site since 1979. The lake is characterized by a very specific hydrological functioning based on a seasonal alternation of water levels and salinity through its link to the Mediterranean Sea. Three Landsat images, in situ surveys and SWAT modelling were used to simulate and assess streamflows and nitrate loads under retrospective land uses.

  9. Quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change in a typical karst watershed, SW China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Luhua; Wang, Shijie; Bai, Xiaoyong; Luo, Weijun; Tian, Yichao; Zeng, Cheng; Luo, Guangjie; He, Shiyan

    2017-12-01

    The Yinjiang River watershed is a typical karst watershed in Southwest China. The present study explored runoff change and its responses to different driving factors in the Yinjiang River watershed over the period of 1984 to 2015. The methods of cumulative anomaly, continuous wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendall rank correlation trend test, and Hurst exponent were applied to analyze the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change. The contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff change were quantitatively assessed using the comparative method of the slope changing ratio of cumulative quantity (SCRCQ). The following results were obtained: (1) From 1984 to 2015, runoff and precipitation exhibited no-significant increasing trend, whereas evaporation exhibited significant decreasing trend. (2) In the future, runoff, precipitation, and evaporation will exhibit weak anti-persistent feature with different persistent times. This feature indicated that in their persistent times, runoff and precipitation will continuously decline, whereas evaporation will continuously increase. (3) Runoff and precipitation were well-synchronized with abrupt change features and stage characteristics, and exhibited consistent multi-timescale characteristics that were different from that of evaporation. (4) The contribution of precipitation to runoff change was 50%-60% and was considered high and stable. The contribution of evaporation to runoff change was 10%-90% and was variable with a positive or negative effects. The contribution of human activities to runoff change was 20%-60% and exerted a low positive or negative effect. (5) Climatic factors highly contributed to runoff change. By contrast, the contribution of human activities to runoff change was low. The contribution of climatic factors to runoff change was highly variable because of differences among base periods. In conclusion, this paper provides a basic theoretical understanding of the main factors

  10. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Overview of Sectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wuebbles, D.

    2009-12-01

    The assessment of the Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States includes analyses of the potential climate change impacts by sector, including water resources, energy supply and use, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, human health and society. The resulting findings for the climate change impacts on these sectors are discussed in this presentation, with the effects on water resources discussed separately. Major findings include: Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase. Climate changes are already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health. These impacts are different from region to region and will grow under projected climate change. Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged. Agriculture is considered one of the sectors most adaptable to changes in climate. However, increased heat, pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crop and livestock production. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge. Sea-level rise and storm surge place many U.S. coastal areas at increasing risk. Energy and transportation infrastructure and other property in coastal areas are very likely to be adversely affected. Threats to human health will increase. Health impacts of climate change are related to heat stress, waterborne diseases, poor air quality, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects and rodents. Robust public health infrastructure can reduce the potential for negative impacts. Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses. Climate change will combine with pollution, population growth, overuse of resources, urbanization, and other social, economic, and environmental stresses to create larger impacts than from any of these factors alone. Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems. There are a variety of thresholds in

  11. Impact of Climate Change Effects on Contamination of Cereal Grains with Deoxynivalenol

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Fels-Klerx, H J; van Asselt, E D; Madsen, M S

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to aggravate feed and food safety problems of crops; however, quantitative estimates are scarce. This study aimed to estimate impacts of climate change effects on deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat and maize grown in the Netherlands by 2040. Quantitative modelling...... the impacts of climate change effects on food safety, and of considering both direct and indirect effects when assessing climate change impacts on crops and related food safety hazards....... two different global and regional climate model combinations were used. A weather generator was applied for downscaling climate data to local conditions. Crop phenology models and prediction models for DON contamination used, each for winter wheat and grain maize. Results showed that flowering...

  12. Sustainable agricultural development in a rural area in the Netherlands? Assessing impacts of climate and socio-economic change at farm and landscape level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, P.; Bakker, M.M.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Alam, S.J.; Paas, W.H.; Kros, J.; Vries, de W.

    2015-01-01

    Changes in climate, technology, policy and prices affect agricultural and rural development. To evaluate whether this development is sustainable, impacts of these multiple drivers need to be assessed for multiple indicators. In a case study area in the Netherlands, a bio-economic farm model, an

  13. Hotspots of climate change impacts in sub-Saharan Africa and implications for adaptation and development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Christoph; Waha, Katharina; Bondeau, Alberte; Heinke, Jens

    2014-08-01

    Development efforts for poverty reduction and food security in sub-Saharan Africa will have to consider future climate change impacts. Large uncertainties in climate change impact assessments do not necessarily complicate, but can inform development strategies. The design of development strategies will need to consider the likelihood, strength, and interaction of climate change impacts across biosphere properties. We here explore the spread of climate change impact projections and develop a composite impact measure to identify hotspots of climate change impacts, addressing likelihood and strength of impacts. Overlapping impacts in different biosphere properties (e.g. flooding, yields) will not only claim additional capacity to respond, but will also narrow the options to respond and develop. Regions with severest projected climate change impacts often coincide with regions of high population density and poverty rates. Science and policy need to propose ways of preparing these areas for development under climate change impacts. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Using Support Vector Machine on EEG for Advertisement Impact Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhen Wei

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The advertising industry depends on an effective assessment of the impact of advertising as a key performance metric for their products. However, current assessment methods have relied on either indirect inference from observing changes in consumer behavior after the launch of an advertising campaign, which has long cycle times and requires an ad campaign to have already have been launched (often meaning costs having been sunk. Or through surveys or focus groups, which have a potential for experimental biases, peer pressure, and other psychological and sociological phenomena that can reduce the effectiveness of the study. In this paper, we investigate a new approach to assess the impact of advertisement by utilizing low-cost EEG headbands to record and assess the measurable impact of advertising on the brain. Our evaluation shows the desired performance of our method based on user experiment with 30 recruited subjects after watching 220 different advertisements. We believe the proposed SVM method can be further developed to a general and scalable methodology that can enable advertising agencies to assess impact rapidly, quantitatively, and without bias.

  15. Using Support Vector Machine on EEG for Advertisement Impact Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Zhen; Wu, Chao; Wang, Xiaoyi; Supratak, Akara; Wang, Pan; Guo, Yike

    2018-01-01

    The advertising industry depends on an effective assessment of the impact of advertising as a key performance metric for their products. However, current assessment methods have relied on either indirect inference from observing changes in consumer behavior after the launch of an advertising campaign, which has long cycle times and requires an ad campaign to have already have been launched (often meaning costs having been sunk). Or through surveys or focus groups, which have a potential for experimental biases, peer pressure, and other psychological and sociological phenomena that can reduce the effectiveness of the study. In this paper, we investigate a new approach to assess the impact of advertisement by utilizing low-cost EEG headbands to record and assess the measurable impact of advertising on the brain. Our evaluation shows the desired performance of our method based on user experiment with 30 recruited subjects after watching 220 different advertisements. We believe the proposed SVM method can be further developed to a general and scalable methodology that can enable advertising agencies to assess impact rapidly, quantitatively, and without bias.

  16. Assessing impact of changes in human resources features on enterprise activities: simulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kalmykova Svetlana

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The need for creating programs of human resources development is shown; the impact of these programs on organizational effectiveness is taken into account. The stages of development tools and HRD programs on the basis of cognitive modelling are disclosed; these stages will help assess the impact of HR-practices on the key indicators of organization activity at the design stage. The method of HR-practices’ pre-selection in professional development of the employees is represented.

  17. Can the combined use of an ensemble based modelling approach and the analysis of measured meteorological trends lead to increased confidence in climate change impact assessments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gädeke, Anne; Koch, Hagen; Pohle, Ina; Grünewald, Uwe

    2014-05-01

    In anthropogenically heavily impacted river catchments, such as the Lusatian river catchments of Spree and Schwarze Elster (Germany), the robust assessment of possible impacts of climate change on the regional water resources is of high relevance for the development and implementation of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. Large uncertainties inherent in future climate projections may, however, reduce the willingness of regional stakeholder to develop and implement suitable adaptation strategies to climate change. This study provides an overview of different possibilities to consider uncertainties in climate change impact assessments by means of (1) an ensemble based modelling approach and (2) the incorporation of measured and simulated meteorological trends. The ensemble based modelling approach consists of the meteorological output of four climate downscaling approaches (DAs) (two dynamical and two statistical DAs (113 realisations in total)), which drive different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (HBV-light and WaSiM-ETH). As study area serve three near natural subcatchments of the Spree and Schwarze Elster river catchments. The objective of incorporating measured meteorological trends into the analysis was twofold: measured trends can (i) serve as a mean to validate the results of the DAs and (ii) be regarded as harbinger for the future direction of change. Moreover, regional stakeholders seem to have more trust in measurements than in modelling results. In order to evaluate the nature of the trends, both gradual (Mann-Kendall test) and step changes (Pettitt test) are considered as well as both temporal and spatial correlations in the data. The results of the ensemble based modelling chain show that depending on the type (dynamical or statistical) of DA used, opposing trends in precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and discharge are simulated in the scenario period (2031-2060). While the statistical DAs

  18. Sense-making and Impact Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyhne, Ivar

    The poster integrates knowledge about how we make sense of situations into SEA methodology to strengthen the staging of impact assessments and the process of scoping impacts.......The poster integrates knowledge about how we make sense of situations into SEA methodology to strengthen the staging of impact assessments and the process of scoping impacts....

  19. Integrated assessment of farm level adaptation to climate change in agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandryk, M.

    2016-01-01

    The findings of the thesis allowed assessing plausible futures of agriculture in Flevoland around 2050 with insights in effective adaptation to climate change at different levels. Besides empirical findings, this thesis contributed methodologically to the portfolio of climate change impact and

  20. Climate change and food security: health impacts in developed countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lake, Iain R; Hooper, Lee; Abdelhamid, Asmaa; Bentham, Graham; Boxall, Alistair B A; Draper, Alizon; Fairweather-Tait, Susan; Hulme, Mike; Hunter, Paul R; Nichols, Gordon; Waldron, Keith W

    2012-11-01

    Anthropogenic climate change will affect global food production, with uncertain consequences for human health in developed countries. We investigated the potential impact of climate change on food security (nutrition and food safety) and the implications for human health in developed countries. Expert input and structured literature searches were conducted and synthesized to produce overall assessments of the likely impacts of climate change on global food production and recommendations for future research and policy changes. Increasing food prices may lower the nutritional quality of dietary intakes, exacerbate obesity, and amplify health inequalities. Altered conditions for food production may result in emerging pathogens, new crop and livestock species, and altered use of pesticides and veterinary medicines, and affect the main transfer mechanisms through which contaminants move from the environment into food. All these have implications for food safety and the nutritional content of food. Climate change mitigation may increase consumption of foods whose production reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Impacts may include reduced red meat consumption (with positive effects on saturated fat, but negative impacts on zinc and iron intake) and reduced winter fruit and vegetable consumption. Developed countries have complex structures in place that may be used to adapt to the food safety consequences of climate change, although their effectiveness will vary between countries, and the ability to respond to nutritional challenges is less certain. Climate change will have notable impacts upon nutrition and food safety in developed countries, but further research is necessary to accurately quantify these impacts. Uncertainty about future impacts, coupled with evidence that climate change may lead to more variable food quality, emphasizes the need to maintain and strengthen existing structures and policies to regulate food production, monitor food quality and safety, and

  1. Climate Change Impacts on the Mediterranean Coastal Zones

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brochier, F.; Ramieri, E.

    2001-04-01

    The main objective of this paper is to highlight the potential impacts of changes in climatic conditions and in related variables, which could affect coastal areas, as well as to identify potential response measures which could reduce the vulnerability of coastal systems and enhance their adaptability. Attention will be focused on the Mediterranean basin which is in the climate change context, a zone of great interest and of recent concern at the world scale by some features: strong ocean-atmosphere-land interactions; contrast between the small size of the sea and its significant role in the global climate system; possibility to use it at a scaled down model for the monitoring of environmental and climate evolution; critical environmental conditions of some areas and high human pressure; and strong geographical, socio-economic and climatic contrasts. The first section provides an introduction to the climate change issue, the past trends and the projections of future climate at the global scale. The second section presents the main features of the Mediterranean basin and some relevant regional projections of future climatic variables. The third section focuses on the main likely impacts on the Mediterranean coasts. Different coastal systems - such as islands, deltas, estuaries, coastal wetlands and coastal cities - and different climate change impacts - such as inundation, increased flooding, salinisation, salt water intrusion, desertification, and increased erosion - are addressed in this section. Finally the last section brings some conclusions and identify some strategies of adaptations and directions for future research aimed at improving our ability to predict and assess the local impacts of climate change in the region

  2. Assessment of environmental change and its socio-economic impacts in the mangrove ecological zone of the Niger Delta, Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Godstime Kadiri

    The Niger Delta, located in the central part of Southern Nigeria, is endowed with immense Mangrove resources, estimated to be the fourth largest in the world. The term Mangrove refers to salt tolerant species of trees or shrubs that grow on shores and in estuaries located in the coastal tropics and sub-tropical regions of the world. They support highly productive marine food chains. However, Mangrove ecosystems are in serious decline around the world due to the rapid increase in maritime commerce and exploration of mineral resources in the last few decades. These pressures often have immediate consequences on sensitive coastal environments and can potentially impact future human use of coastal space and resources. This dynamic process presents unique opportunities for research to explore the nature and consequences of these pressures. This dissertation focused on the Mangrove ecological zone of the Niger Delta, where resource exploitation and indigenous use of the environment are in direct conflict with important socio-economic implications. Environmental accounting metrics derived from the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework were used to assess changes in the spatial extent of the Niger Delta Mangrove ecosystem and the socio-economic impacts of the observed changes. Landsat remotely sensed satellite data from the mid-1980s through 2003 was used to assess change in the spatial extent of the Mangrove vegetation in the region. A total of 21,340 hectares of Mangrove forest was determined to be lost over the study period. Field research in the region confirmed that this loss was primarily driven by urbanization and activities of the multinational oil and gas corporations operating in the region. To estimate the socio-economic impacts of the Mangrove loss in the region, neoclassical economic valuation and participatory social valuation approaches were adopted. Results from the economic valuation revealed that the net present value of future income

  3. AHP-based spatial analysis of water quality impact assessment due to change in vehicular traffic caused by highway broadening in Sikkim Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, Polash; Ghose, Mrinal Kanti; Pradhan, Ratika

    2018-05-01

    Spatial analysis of water quality impact assessment of highway projects in mountainous areas remains largely unexplored. A methodology is presented here for Spatial Water Quality Impact Assessment (SWQIA) due to highway-broadening-induced vehicular traffic change in the East district of Sikkim. Pollution load of the highway runoff was estimated using an Average Annual Daily Traffic-Based Empirical model in combination with mass balance model to predict pollution in the rivers within the study area. Spatial interpolation and overlay analysis were used for impact mapping. Analytic Hierarchy Process-Based Water Quality Status Index was used to prepare a composite impact map. Model validation criteria, cross-validation criteria, and spatial explicit sensitivity analysis show that the SWQIA model is robust. The study shows that vehicular traffic is a significant contributor to water pollution in the study area. The model is catering specifically to impact analysis of the concerned project. It can be an aid for decision support system for the project stakeholders. The applicability of SWQIA model needs to be explored and validated in the context of a larger set of water quality parameters and project scenarios at a greater spatial scale.

  4. Socio-economic impact assessment and community engagement to reduce conflict over mine operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John Rolfe; Stewart Lockie [Central Queensland University, Qld. (Australia)

    2007-09-15

    The broad aim of this project was to assist coal mining companies develop effective processes for engaging with their communities and developing impact assessment and planning processes that can be agreed by their stakeholders. The range of project outcomes have been summarised in a series of reports, as follows. Report 1. Overview of social and economic issues associated with the Bowen Basin coal industry; Report 2. A review of environmental impact assessments (EIA) for coal mine developments and the use of economic and social impact assessment in the Bowen Basin - tools and trends; Report 3. Accounting for social and economic impacts in annual sustainability reporting; Report 4. Regional Economic impact assessment: an overview of the input-output methods; Report 5. The impact of coal industry development projects on the Central Highlands, Fitzroy and Queensland economies: An application of input-output method; Report 6. Regional Economic impact assessment: factors influencing workforce mobility to regional mining towns; Report 7. Social and economic impacts associated with changes in the coal mining industry in the Bowen Basin on the township of Blackwater; Report 8. Social and economic impacts associated with changes in the coal mining industry in the Bowen Basin on the Bauhinia Shire (Springsure and Rolleston); Report 9. Results of the extended stakeholder analysis (Blackwater); Report 10. Results of the extended stakeholder analysis (the Bauhinia Shire); and Report 11. Summary and Recommendations. This report includes a number of summary findings about the social and economic impacts of coal mining on the communities in the Bowen Basin. The approaches used are outlined and briefly discussed.

  5. Evaluating the impact of hydrological uncertainty in assessing the impact of climate change on water resources of the Ebro River Basin (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zambrano-Bigiarini, Mauricio; Bellin, Alberto; Majone, Bruno; Bovolo, C. Isabella; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Fowler, Hayley J.

    2010-05-01

    Quantification of the impacts of climate change on water resources depends on the emission scenario, climate model, downscaling technique and impact model used to drive the impact study. Uncertainties in projections of climate models and those involved in the quantification of its hydrological response limit the understanding of future impacts and complicate the assessment of mitigation policies. This work analyses the effects of climate change on water resources of the Ebro River Basin (NE Spain), considering the combined effect of uncertainty characterizing both the driving Regional Climate Model (RCM) and hydrological parameterization. In addition, we considered the relative importance of these two contributions. Hydrological simulations in a few test catchments within the basin were performed by using the SWAT model, a widely used hydrological model often applied to large-scale watersheds. After a preliminary sensitivity analysis with Latin Hypercube One-factor-At-a-Time (LH-OAT), the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology was used for selecting hydrological parameter sets that best reproduced the observed streamflow during the control period from 1961 to 1991, in terms of percentage of measured data bracketed by the 95% prediction uncertainty (95PPU), and the ratio between the average thickness of the 95PPU band and the standard deviation of the measured data. Following validation, the same parameter sets were used to simulate the effects of climate change on future streamflows. A simple bias-correction methodology was used for downscaling daily time series of precipitation and mean temperature from an ensemble of 6 RCM time-slice experiments. These were obtained from the PRUDENCE project for a control period (1961-1990) and for a future time period (2071-2100) using the medium-high SRES A2 emissions scenario. The bias-corrected future RCM scenarios were then used to drive the hydrological simulations during the future period

  6. Methodological framework, analytical tool and database for the assessment of climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in Denmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skougaard Kaspersen, P.; Halsnaes, K.; Gregg, J.; Drews, M.

    2012-12-15

    In this report we provide recommendations about how more consistent studies and data can be provided based on available modelling tools and data for integrated assessment of climate change risks and adaptation options. It is concluded that integrated assessments within this area requires the use of a wide range of data and models in order to cover the full chain of elements including climate modelling, impact, risks, costs, social issues, and decision making. As an outcome of this activity a comprehensive data and modelling tool named Danish Integrated Assessment System (DIAS) has been developed, this may be used by researchers within the field. DIAS has been implemented and tested in a case study on urban flooding caused by extreme precipitation in Aarhus, and this study highlights the usefulness of integrating data, models, and methods from several disciplines into a common framework. DIAS is an attempt to describe such a framework with regards to integrated analysis of climate impacts and adaptation. The final product of the DTU KFT project ''Tool for Vulnerability analysis'' is NOT a user friendly Climate Adaptation tool ready for various types of analysis that may directly be used by decision makers and consultant on their own. Rather developed methodology and collected/available data can serve as a starting point for case specific analyses. For this reason alone this work should very much be viewed as an attempt to coordinate research, data and models outputs between different research institutes from various disciplines. It is unquestionable that there is a future need to integrate information for areas not yet included, and it is very likely that such efforts will depend on research projects conducted in different climate change adaptation areas and sectors in Denmark. (Author)

  7. Principles for social impact assessment: A critical comparison between the international and US documents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanclay, Frank

    2006-01-01

    The 'International Principles for Social Impact Assessment' and the 'Principles and Guidelines for Social Impact Assessment in the USA', both developed under the auspices of the International Association for Impact Assessment and published in 2003, are compared. Major differences in the definition and approach to social impact assessment (SIA) are identified. The US Principles and Guidelines is shown to be positivist/technocratic while the International Principles is identified as being democratic, participatory and constructivist. Deficiencies in both documents are identified. The field of SIA is changing to go beyond the prevention of negative impacts, to include issues of building social capital, capacity building, good governance, community engagement and social inclusion

  8. Sink or Swim: Adapting to the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleick, P. H.

    2014-12-01

    Climate changes lead to a wide range of societal and environmental impacts; indeed, strong evidence has accrued that such impacts are already occurring, as summarized by the newest National Climate Assessment and other analyses. Among the most important will be alterations in the hydrologic cycle, changes in water supply and demand, and impacts on existing water-related infrastructure. Because of the complexity of our water systems, adaptation responses will be equally complex. This problem has made it difficult for water managers and planners to develop and implement adaptation strategies. This talk will address three ways to think about water-related adaptation approaches to climate change: (1) strategies that are already being implemented to address population and economic changes without climate change; (2) whether these first-line strategies are appropriate for additional impacts that might result from climatic changes; and (3) new approaches that might be necessary for new, non-linear, or threshold impacts. An effort will also be made to differentiate between adaptation strategies that influence the hydrologic cycle directly (e.g., cloud seeding), those that influence supply management (e.g., construction of additional reservoirs or water-distribution systems), and those that affect water demand (e.g., removal of outdoor landscaping, installation of efficient irrigation systems).

  9. Impact assessment of adaptation options and strategies for coping ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Impact assessment of adaptation options and strategies for coping with climate change on the livelihoods of pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in Sudan' Butana area. Ibrahim, Abdelhamed M.M.. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10625/53410. Date: 2013-11 ...

  10. Operationalizing the ecosystems approach: assessing the environmental impact of major infrastructure development

    OpenAIRE

    Zawadzka, Joanna; Corstanje, Ronald; Fookes, J.; Nichols, J.; Harris, Jim A.

    2017-01-01

    The ecosystem services approach is increasingly applied in the context of environmental resources management and impact assessment. Assessments often involve analysis of alternative scenarios for which potential changes in ecosystem services are quantified. For such assessments to be effective there is a requirement to represent changes in ecosystem services supply in a clear and informative manner. Here we compute Ecosystem Services Ratio (ESR), a simple index that quantifies the relative ch...

  11. An Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Plant Species ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Lazie

    Abstract. This study assesses the effects of climate change on vegetative species diversity ... and mitigation strategies that are ecosystem and species specific. .... seasonality and values below detection limit. ... Pre-whitening is the process of removing undesirable autocorrelations ..... vegetation, carbon and fire in California.

  12. Climate change and global crop yield: impacts, uncertainties and adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Deryng, Delphine

    2014-01-01

    As global mean temperature continues to rise steadily, agricultural systems are projected to face unprecedented challenges to cope with climate change. However, understanding of climate change impacts on global crop yield, and of farmers’ adaptive capacity, remains incomplete as previous global assessments: (1) inadequately evaluated the role of extreme weather events; (2) focused on a small subset of the full range of climate change predictions; (3) overlooked uncertainties related to the ch...

  13. Assessing climate change impact on complementarity between solar and hydro power in areas affected by glacier shrinkage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diah Puspitarini, Handriyanti; François, Baptiste; Zoccatelli, Davide; Brown, Casey; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Zaramella, Mattia; Borga, Marco

    2017-04-01

    basis. Climate response functions, developed in a 2D climate change space (change in mean temperature and precipitation), are built from multiple hydro-climatic scenarios obtained by perturbing the observed weather time series with the change factor method, and considering given glacier storage states. Climate experiments are further used for assessing these change factors from different emission scenarios, climate models and future prediction lead times. Their positioning on the Climate Response Function allows discussing the risk/opportunities pertaining to changes in VRE penetration in the future. Results show i) the large impact of glacier shrinkage on the complementarity between solar and RoR energy sources and ii) that the impact is decreasing with time, with the main alterations to be expected in the coming 30 years. Brown, C., Ghile, Y., Laverty, M., Li, K., (2012). Decision scaling: Linking bottom up vulnerability analysis with climate projections in the water sector. Water Resour Res 48. 515 doi:10.1029/2011WR011212

  14. Climate biomonitoring. Assessing climate change and its impacts on the biosphere. New focus of the working group bioindication/assessment of effects; Klima-Biomonitoring: Nachweis des Klimawandels und dessen Folgen fuer die belebte Umwelt. Neuer Schwerpunkt des Arbeitskreises Bioindikation/Wirkungsermittlung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gebhardt, Harald [Landesanstalt fuer Umwelt, Messungen und Naturschutz Baden-Wuerttemberg, Karlsruhe (Germany); Rammert, Uwe [Landesamt fuer Landwirtschaft, Umwelt und laendliche Raeume Schleswig-Holstein, Flintbek (Germany); Schroeder, Winfried [Hochschule Vechta (Germany). Lehrstuhl fuer Landschaftsoekologie; Wolf, Helmut [Hessisches Landesamt fuer Umwelt und Geologie, Wiesbaden (Germany)

    2010-02-15

    Background, aim and scope: The use of biomonitoring is proposed for the identification, assessment and documentation of climate change impacts on the biosphere as requested in the German 'National Adaptation Strategy' (BMU 2009), because - this method succeeds to present climatic changes in especially sensitive areas of Germany including their habitats, ecosystems, and species; - it can reveal relevant information about the migration and dispersal of new pests and diseases threatening humans, animals and plants; - it can provide politicians with information, documents and a basis for decision support to assess climate change impacts and - it is possible to develop new and to evaluate the effectiveness of existing adaptive measures. It is proposed to use the term 'climate biomonitoring' for biomonitoring methods that are able to indicate climate change effects. For several reasons (e.g. unified methods, common data basis, cost reduction) all federal states should participate in it. Today, bioindication is an indispensable method for the early detection of changes in the biosphere, giving information about special hazards (early warning system). Climate biomonitoring preferably makes use of already existing monitoring systems and data collections. Materials and methods: Climate biomonitoring refers back to accepted and tested methods of bioindication to assess environmental changes. Existing methods are enhanced and supplemented in order to meet the particular needs for the indication of climate change conditions. On the basis of an evaluation of relevant and actual monitoring programs on state and national level we identify relevant impacts of climate change and programs providing relevant data, and we propose evaluation methods. Additionally, other data sources are described, that may enable further in depth assessments. Results: An overview table systematically lists the monitoring programs on national and state level and shows their relevance

  15. Projected impacts of climate change on marine fish and fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hollowed, Anne B.; Barange, Manuel; Beamish, Richard J.

    2013-01-01

    This paper reviews current literature on the projected effects of climate change on marine fish and shellfish, their fisheries, and fishery-dependent communities throughout the northern hemisphere. The review addresses the following issues: (i) expected impacts on ecosystem productivity and habitat......) implications for food security and associated changes; and (v) uncertainty and modelling skill assessment. Climate change will impact fish and shellfish, their fisheries, and fishery-dependent communities through a complex suite of linked processes. Integrated interdisciplinary research teams are forming...... in many regions to project these complex responses. National and international marine research organizations serve a key role in the coordination and integration of research to accelerate the production of projections of the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and to move towards a future where...

  16. Tailored scenarios for streamflow climate change impacts based on the perturbation of precipitation and evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick; Baguis, Pierre; Roulin, Emmanuel

    2015-04-01

    It is advisable to account for a wide range of uncertainty by including the maximum possible number of climate models and scenarios for future impacts. As this is not always feasible, impact assessments are inevitably performed with a limited set of scenarios. The development of tailored scenarios is a challenge that needs more attention as the number of available climate change simulations grows. Whether these scenarios are representative enough for climate change impacts is a question that needs addressing. This study presents a methodology of constructing tailored scenarios for assessing runoff flows including extreme conditions (peak flows) from an ensemble of future climate change signals of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) derived from the climate model simulations. The aim of the tailoring process is to formulate scenarios that can optimally represent the uncertainty spectrum of climate scenarios. These tailored scenarios have the advantage of being few in number as well as having a clear description of the seasonal variation of the climate signals, hence allowing easy interpretation of the implications of future changes. The tailoring process requires an analysis of the hydrological impacts from the likely future change signals from all available climate model simulations in a simplified (computationally less expensive) impact model. Historical precipitation and ETo time series are perturbed with the climate change signals based on a quantile perturbation technique that accounts for the changes in extremes. For precipitation, the change in wetday frequency is taken into account using a markov-chain approach. Resulting hydrological impacts from the perturbed time series are then subdivided into high, mean and low hydrological impacts using a quantile change analysis. From this classification, the corresponding precipitation and ETo change factors are back-tracked on a seasonal basis to determine precipitation-ETo covariation. The

  17. Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production in Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mereu, V.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.; Spano, D.

    2011-12-01

    The agricultural sector in Nigeria is particularly important for the country's food security, natural resources, and growth agenda. The cultivable areas comprise more than 70% of the total area; however, the cultivated area is about the 35% of the total area. The most important components in the food basket of the nation are cereals and tubers, which include rice, maize, corn, millet, sorghum, yam, and cassava. These crops represent about 80% of the total agricultural product in Nigeria (from NPAFS). The major crops grown in the country can be divided into food crops (produced for consumption) and export products. Despite the importance of the export crops, the primary policy of agriculture is to make Nigeria self-sufficient in its food and fiber requirements. The projected impacts of future climate change on agriculture and water resources are expected to be adverse and extensive in these area. This implies the need for actions and measures to adapt to climate change impacts, and especially as they affect agriculture, the primary sector for Nigerian economy. In the framework of the Project Climate Risk Analysis in Nigeria (founded by World Bank Contract n.7157826), a study was made to assess the potential impact of climate change on the main crops that characterize Nigerian agriculture. The DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, version 4.5 was used for the analysis. Crop simulation models included in DSSAT are tools that simulate physiological processes of crop growth, development and production by combining genetic crop characteristics and environmental (soil and weather) conditions. For each selected crop, the models were calibrated to evaluate climate change impacts on crop production. The climate data used for the analysis are derived by the Regional Circulation Model COSMO-CLM, from 1971 to 2065, at 8 km of spatial resolution. The RCM model output was "perturbed" with 10 Global Climate Models to have

  18. Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is likely to affect the water cycle by influencing the precipitation patterns. It is important to integrate the anticipated changes into the design of urban drainage in response to the increased risk level in cities. This paper presents a pluvial flood risk assessment framework...... to identify and assess adaptation options in the urban context. An integrated approach is adopted by incorporating climate change impact assessment, flood inundation modeling, economic tool, and risk assessment, hereby developing a step-by-step process for cost-benefit assessment of climate change adaptation...

  19. Assessing the impacts of climate change and tillage practices on stream flow, crop and sediment yields from the Mississippi River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    P.B. Parajuli; P. Jayakody; G.F. Sassenrath; Y. Ouyang

    2016-01-01

    This study evaluated climate change impacts on stream flow, crop and sediment yields from three differ-ent tillage systems (conventional, reduced 1–close to conservation, and reduced 2–close to no-till), in theBig Sunflower River Watershed (BSRW) in Mississippi. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modelwas applied to the BSRW using observed stream flow and crop...

  20. Climate change and waterborne diarrhoea in Northern India: Impact and adaptation strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moors, E.J.; Singh, T.; Siderius, C.; Balakrishnan, S.; Mishra, A.

    2013-01-01

    Although several studies show the vulnerability of human health to climate change, a clear comprehensive quantification of the increased health risks attributable to climate change is lacking. Even more complicated are assessments of adaptation measures for this sector. We discuss the impact of

  1. An assessment of the impact of climate change on plant species ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study assesses the effects of climate change on vegetative species diversity exploring the usefulness of the Normalised Difference Water Index (NDWI) in predicting spatio-temporal diversity variations. The relationship between species richness and climatic variables of rainfall and temperature is explored based on ...

  2. Informing the NCA: EPA's Climate Change Impact and Risk Analysis Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarofim, M. C.; Martinich, J.; Kolian, M.; Crimmins, A. R.

    2017-12-01

    The Climate Change Impact and Risk Analysis (CIRA) framework is designed to quantify the physical impacts and economic damages in the United States under future climate change scenarios. To date, the framework has been applied to 25 sectors, using scenarios and projections developed for the Fourth National Climate Assessment. The strength of this framework has been in the use of consistent climatic, socioeconomic, and technological assumptions and inputs across the impact sectors to maximize the ease of cross-sector comparison. The results of the underlying CIRA sectoral analyses are informing the sustained assessment process by helping to address key gaps related to economic valuation and risk. Advancing capacity and scientific literature in this area has created opportunity to consider future applications and strengthening of the framework. This presentation will describe the CIRA framework, present results for various sectors such as heat mortality, air & water quality, winter recreation, and sea level rise, and introduce potential enhancements that can improve the utility of the framework for decision analysis.

  3. Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change and Its Agricultural Impacts ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article presents an assessment of farmers' perceptions of climate change and its agricultural impacts in the Ethiopian portion of the Nile and Baro-Akobo river basins. A total of 500 randomly selected households were interviewed from 15 kebeles in five woredas, three each from dega, woina-dega and kolla ...

  4. Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balances and Flooding Conditions of Peninsular Malaysia watersheds by a Coupled Numerical Climate Model - Watershed Hydrology Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercan, A.; Kavvas, M. L.; Ishida, K.; Chen, Z. Q.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over various watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model that utilized an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional numerical climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions at the selected watersheds during the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90 years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant at the selected watersheds. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for the selected watersheds indicate an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century.

  5. Integration of quantitative risk assessment in the health impact assessment of the recently amended Hungarian anti-smoking policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Gulis, Gabriel

    2011-01-01

    Health impact assessments (HIA) dominantly apply only qualitative evaluation, although a comprehensive HIA ideally integrates both qualitative and quantitative evidence and methods, since quantification has several advantages when using assessment results in the decision making process......-smokers to introduce smoking ban in closed public places, workplaces and public transport vehicles. Full chain approach was used to identify basic rules for prioritizing the major impact pathways with special attention to the feasibility of quantifying exposure and outcome. Exposure assessment relied on international...... experiences, while outcome assessment calculated measures of disease burden, like attributable death and disability adjusted life years, for a baseline and a predicted situation after the proposed changes take place. The major impact of the proposal was identified to decreases prevalence of active and passive...

  6. Spent fuel repositories and environmental impact assessment; the legal situation i Finland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manninen, J.

    1995-01-01

    The Finnish Act on Environmental Impact Assessment (468/94) builds on the EU Directive 85/337 on the assessment of the effects of certain public and private projects on the environment. The Act is supplemented by the Decree on Environmental Impact Assessment (792/88). The EIA Act is applicable to all nuclear facilities, spent fuel repositories included. In practice the new Act does not introduce any drastic changes to the legal situation, as far as nuclear facilities are concerned. The Finnish Nuclear Energy Act (990/87), which entered into force 1988, already contains most of the basic elements of the environmental impact assessment. In the article, the different steps in the Finnish EIA procedure is described

  7. Climate change mitigation and adaptation in strategic environmental assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wende, Wolfgang; Bond, Alan; Bobylev, Nikolai; Stratmann, Lars

    2012-01-01

    Countries are implementing CO 2 emission reduction targets in order to meet a globally agreed global warming limit of +2 °C. However, it was hypothesised that these national reduction targets are not translated to regional or state level planning, and are not considered through Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) in order to meet emission reduction obligations falling on the transport, energy, housing, agriculture, and forestry sectors. SEAs of land use plans in the German state of Saxony, and the English region of the East of England were examined for their consideration of climate change impacts based on a set of criteria drawn from the literature. It was found that SEAs in both cases failed to consider climate change impacts at scales larger than the boundary of the spatial plan, and that CO 2 reduction targets were not considered. This suggests a need for more clarity in the legal obligations for climate change consideration within the text of the SEA Directive, a requirement for monitoring of carbon emissions, a need for methodological guidance to devolve global climate change targets down to regional and local levels, and a need for guidance on properly implementing climate change protection in SEA. - Highlights: ► Strategic Environmental Assessments (SEA) of 12 land use plans from Germany and England have been examined. ► SEA failed to consider climate change impacts at scales larger than the boundary of the land use plans. ► SEA should be an important instrument for climate protection. ► Concrete steps for climate protection mainstreaming into SEA at the European Union and national levels have been suggested.

  8. Estimation of climate change impacts on hydrology and floods in Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veijalainen, N.

    2012-07-01

    Climate scenarios project increases in air temperature and precipitation in Finland during the 21st century and these will results in changes in hydrology. In this thesis climate change impacts on hydrology and floods in Finland were estimated with hydrological modelling and several climate scenarios. One of the goals was to understand the influence of different processes and catchment characteristics on the hydrological response to climate change in boreal conditions. The tool of the climate change impact assessment was the conceptual hydrological model WSFS (Watershed Simulation and Forecasting System). The studies employed and compared two methods of transferring the climate change signal from climate models to the WSFS hydrological model (delta change approach and direct bias corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) data). Direct RCM data was used to simulate transient hydrological scenarios for 1951- 2100 and the simulation results were analysed to detect changes in water balance components and trends in discharge series. The results revealed that seasonal changes in discharges in Finland were the clearest impacts of climate change. Air temperature increase will affect snow accumulation and melt, increase winter discharge and decrease spring snowmelt discharge. The impacts of climate change on floods in Finland by 2070-2099 varied considerably depending on the location, catchment characteristics, timing of the floods and climate scenario. Floods caused by spring snowmelt decreased or remained unchanged, whereas autumn and winter floods caused by precipitation increased especially in large lakes and their outflow rivers. Since estimation of climate change impacts includes uncertainties in every step of the long modelling process, the accumulated uncertainties by the end of the process become large. The large differences between results from different climate scenarios highlight the need to use several climate scenarios in climate change impact studies

  9. Ensemble catchment hydrological modelling for climate change impact analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    , more than in high flow conditions. Hence, the mechanism of the slow flow component simulation requires further attention. It is concluded that a multi-model ensemble approach where different plausible model structures are applied, is extremely useful. It improves the reliability of climate change impact results and allows decision making to be based on uncertainty assessment that includes model structure related uncertainties. References: Ntegeka, V., Baguis, P., Roulin, E., Willems, P., 2014. Developing tailored climate change scenarios for hydrological impact assessments. Journal of Hydrology, 508C, 307-321 Vansteenkiste, Th., Tavakoli, M., Ntegeka, V., Willems, P., De Smedt, F., Batelaan, O., 2013. Climate change impact on river flows and catchment hydrology: a comparison of two spatially distributed models. Hydrological Processes, 27(25), 3649-3662. Vansteenkiste, Th., Tavakoli, M., Ntegeka, V., Van Steenbergen, N., De Smedt, F., Batelaan, O., Pereira, F., Willems, P., 2014. Intercomparison of five lumped and distributed models for catchment runoff and extreme flow simulation. Journal of Hydrology, in press. Vansteenkiste, Th., Tavakoli, M., Ntegeka, V., De Smedt, F., Batelaan, O., Pereira, F., Willems, P., 2014. Intercomparison of climate scenario impact predictions by a lumped and distributed model ensemble. Journal of Hydrology, in revision.

  10. Policy Directions Addressing the Public Health Impact of Climate Change in South Korea: The Climate-change Health Adaptation and Mitigation Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Yong Seung; Ha, Jongsik

    2012-01-01

    Climate change, caused by global warming, is increasingly recognized as a major threat to mankind's survival. Climate change concurrently has both direct and modifying influences on environmental, social, and public health systems undermining human health as a whole. Environmental health policy-makers need to make use of political and technological alternatives to address these ramifying effects. The objective of this paper is to review public health policy in Korea, as well as internationally, particularly as it relates to climate change health adaptation and mitigation programs (such as C-CHAMP of Korea), in order to assess and elicit directions for a robust environmental health policy that is adaptive to the health impacts of climate change. In Korea, comprehensive measures to prevent or mitigate overall health effects are limited, and the diffusion of responsibility among various government departments makes consistency in policy execution very difficult. This paper proposes integration, synergy, and utilization as the three core principles of policy direction for the assessment and adaptation to the health impacts of climate change. For specific action plans, we suggest policy making based on scientifically integrated health impact assessments and the prioritization of environmental factors in climate change; the development of practical and technological tools that support policy decisions by making their political implementation more efficient; and customized policy development that deals with the vulnerability of local communities.

  11. Policy Directions Addressing the Public Health Impact of Climate Change in South Korea: The Climate-change Health Adaptation and Mitigation Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Yong Seung

    2012-01-01

    Climate change, caused by global warming, is increasingly recognized as a major threat to mankind's survival. Climate change concurrently has both direct and modifying influences on environmental, social, and public health systems undermining human health as a whole. Environmental health policy-makers need to make use of political and technological alternatives to address these ramifying effects. The objective of this paper is to review public health policy in Korea, as well as internationally, particularly as it relates to climate change health adaptation and mitigation programs (such as C-CHAMP of Korea), in order to assess and elicit directions for a robust environmental health policy that is adaptive to the health impacts of climate change. In Korea, comprehensive measures to prevent or mitigate overall health effects are limited, and the diffusion of responsibility among various government departments makes consistency in policy execution very difficult. This paper proposes integration, synergy, and utilization as the three core principles of policy direction for the assessment and adaptation to the health impacts of climate change. For specific action plans, we suggest policy making based on scientifically integrated health impact assessments and the prioritization of environmental factors in climate change; the development of practical and technological tools that support policy decisions by making their political implementation more efficient; and customized policy development that deals with the vulnerability of local communities. PMID:23256088

  12. Assessment of urgent impacts of greenhouse gas emissions—the climate tipping potential (CTP)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Susanne Vedel; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Nielsen, Per H.

    2014-01-01

    The impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on climate change receives much focus today. This impact is however often considered only in terms of global warming potential (GWP), which does not take into account the need for staying below climatic target levels, in order to avoid...... passing critical climate tipping points. Some suggestions to include a target level in climate change impact assessment have been made, but with the consequence of disregarding impacts beyond that target level. The aim of this paper is to introduce the climate tipping impact category, which represents...... as on the chosen climatic target level and background scenario for atmospheric GHG concentration development. In order to enable direct application in life cycle assessment (LCA), CTP characterisation factors are presented for the three main anthropogenic GHGs, CO2, CH4 and N2O.The CTP metric distinguishes...

  13. Analysis of methods and models for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes in the agricultural sector of the US economy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Callaway, J.M.; Cronin, F.J.; Currie, J.W.; Tawil, J.

    1982-08-01

    The overall purpose of this research was to assist the US Department of Energy (DOE) in developing methods for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts due to the effects of increases in the ambient concentration of CO/sub 2/ on agricultural production. First, a comprehensive literature search was undertaken to determine what types of models and methods have been developed, which could be effectively used to conduct assessments of the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ buildup. Specific attention was focused upon models and methods for assessing the physical impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes on crop yields; national and multi-regional agricultural sector models; and macroeconomic models of the US economy. The second task involved a thorough investigation of the research efforts being conducted by other public and private sector organizations in order to determine how more recent analytical methods being developed outside of DOE could be effectively integrated into a more comprehensive analysis of the direct economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ buildup. The third and final task involved synthesizing the information gathered in the first two tasks into a systematic framework for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes originating in the agricultural sector of the US economy. It is concluded that the direct economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ on the agricultural sector and the indirect economic impacts caused by spillover effects from agriculture to other sectors of the economy will be pervasive; however, the direction and magnitude of these impacts on producers and consumers cannot be determined a priori.

  14. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT AND MONITORING ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    protect the environment, it is imperative to conduct environmental impact assessment ... Ethiopia enacted the Environmental Impact Assessment Proclamation in 2002 ... flora, fauna, soil, air, water, climate, natural or cultural heritage, other.

  15. Distributional Aspects of Climate Change Impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tol, R.S.J. Tol; Kuik, O.J.; Downing, T.; Smith, J.B.

    2003-01-01

    This paper gives a brief review about the state of knowledge on the distributional aspects of climate change impacts. The paper is largely limited to the distribution of impacts between countries (in Section 2). Although there are virtually no estimates reported in the literature, the distribution of impacts within countries is also important. Impact estimates for different sectors (agriculture, health, sea level rise) provides little guidance for estimating differential impacts within countries. It is even harder to find estimates based on social classes. The paper restricts itself to equity about the consequences of climate change. Equity issues about the consequences of emission reduction are ignored here, but should of course be part of a policy analysis. Equity issues about procedures for decision making are also ignored. The paper is organised as follows. Section 2 reviews recent estimates of the regional impacts of climate change. Section 3 discusses alternative ways of aggregating regional impact estimates. Section 4 focusses on the vulnerability of the poor to climate change impacts, both with respect to exposure as well as to their limited capacity for adaptation. Section 5 discusses the impacts of economic development and other dynamic changes on vulnerability. The paper abstains from a discussion of aggregating climate change impacts over time, partly because the literature on that is too substantial to be reviewed here, and partly because, under virtually all scenarios, the current generation is the poorest and therefore particularly worthy in equity considerations. In Section 6 we present salient conclusions

  16. Assessment of Environmental Impacts of Limestone Quarrying Operations in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kittipongvises Suthirat

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Environmental impacts of the mineral extraction have been a public concern. Presently, there is widespread global interest in the area of mining and its sustainability that focused on the need to shift mining industry to a more sustainable framework. The aim of this study was to systematically assess all possible environmental and climate change related impacts of the limestone quarrying operation in Thailand. By considering the life cycle assessment method, the production processes were divided into three phases: raw material extraction, transportation, and comminution. Both IMPACT 2002+ and the Greenhouse Gas Protocol methods were used. Results of IMPACT 2002+ analysis showed that per 1 ton crushed limestone rock production, the total depletion of resource and GHGs emissions were 79.6 MJ and 2.76 kg CO2 eq., respectively. Regarding to the four damage categories, ‘resources’ and ‘climate change’ categories were the two greatest environmental impacts of the limestone rock production. Diesel fuel and electricity consumption in the mining processes were the main causes of those impacts. For climate change, the unit of CO2 eq. was expressed to quantify the total GHGs emissions. Estimated result was about 3.13 kg CO2 eq. per ton limestone rock product. The results obtained by the Greenhouse Gas Protocol were also similar to IMPACT 2002+ method. Electrical energy consumption was considered as the main driver of GHGs, accounting for approximately 46.8 % of total fossil fuel CO2 emissions. A final point should be noted that data uncertainties in environmental assessment over the complete life cycle of limestone quarrying operation have to be carefully considered.

  17. Towards a meaningful assessment of marine ecological impacts in life cycle assessment (LCA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, John S; Veltman, Karin; Huijbregts, Mark A J; Verones, Francesca; Hertwich, Edgar G

    2016-01-01

    Human demands on marine resources and space are currently unprecedented and concerns are rising over observed declines in marine biodiversity. A quantitative understanding of the impact of industrial activities on the marine environment is thus essential. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a widely applied method for quantifying the environmental impact of products and processes. LCA was originally developed to assess the impacts of land-based industries on mainly terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. As such, impact indicators for major drivers of marine biodiversity loss are currently lacking. We review quantitative approaches for cause-effect assessment of seven major drivers of marine biodiversity loss: climate change, ocean acidification, eutrophication-induced hypoxia, seabed damage, overexploitation of biotic resources, invasive species and marine plastic debris. Our review shows that impact indicators can be developed for all identified drivers, albeit at different levels of coverage of cause-effect pathways and variable levels of uncertainty and spatial coverage. Modeling approaches to predict the spatial distribution and intensity of human-driven interventions in the marine environment are relatively well-established and can be employed to develop spatially-explicit LCA fate factors. Modeling approaches to quantify the effects of these interventions on marine biodiversity are less well-developed. We highlight specific research challenges to facilitate a coherent incorporation of marine biodiversity loss in LCA, thereby making LCA a more comprehensive and robust environmental impact assessment tool. Research challenges of particular importance include i) incorporation of the non-linear behavior of global circulation models (GCMs) within an LCA framework and ii) improving spatial differentiation, especially the representation of coastal regions in GCMs and ocean-carbon cycle models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. A GIS framework for the assessment of tick impact on human health in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada-Peña, Agustin; Venzal, José M

    2007-05-01

    A framework to evaluate the impact of ticks on human health under various scenarios of climate change is proposed. The purpose is not to provide a comprehensive plan (e.g. the economic impact of ticks on human society is not included), instead we wish to describe a series of indices that would be helpful by obtaining homogeneous comparisons of impact and vulnerability exerted by ticks in different regions, countries or continents, using normalized sets of population, vegetation, climate and physical attributes of the territory. Three tick species, i.e. Dermacentor marginatus, Rhipicephalus turanicus and Hyalomma marginatum, have been traced over the territory of Spain to further explain the computation of these indices. The discussion is based on tick habitat suitability, used as a measure of the abiotic (climate) fitness of the habitat for the species in question, and the sensitivity of each tick species to the rate of change of habitat suitability with respect to climate change. The impact is the rate of change in habitat suitability weighted with a fuzzy logic function evaluating the total number of people in an area, percent of rural population and accessibility of the geographical divisions (expressed as hexagons with a 10 km radius) used in the study. The different climate scenarios evaluated in relation to ticks show that the north-western part of Spain would suffer the greatest impact in case the mean temperature would increase, while the Mediterranean region would suffer the highest impact if temperatures decreased. Vulnerability, based on the sanitary structure of the territory and on the impact on human activities due to the change in tick distribution and abundance, is proposed as a measure of adaptation of society to these climate scenarios. The cost is evaluated as a function of land use and tick habitat suitability in a buffer zone surrounding each geographic division. All indices proposed have been obtained by search of common and/or publicly

  19. Agricultural Intensification as a Mechanism of Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyle, P.; Calvin, K. V.; le Page, Y.; Patel, P.; West, T. O.; Wise, M. A.

    2015-12-01

    The research, policy, and NGO communities have devoted significant attention to the potential for agricultural intensification, or closure of "yield gaps," to alleviate future global hunger, poverty, climate change impacts, and other threats. However, because the research to this point has focused on biophysically attainable yields—assuming optimal choices under ideal conditions—the presently available work has not yet addressed the likely responses of the agricultural sector to real-world conditions in the future. This study investigates endogenous agricultural intensification in response to global climate change impacts—that is, intensification independent of policies or other exogenous interventions to promote yield gap closure. The framework for the analysis is a set of scenarios to 2100 in the GCAM global integrated assessment model, enhanced to include endogenous irrigation, fertilizer application, and yields, in each of 283 land use regions, with maximum yields based on the 95th percentile of attainable yields in a recent global assessment. We assess three levels of agricultural climate impacts, using recent global gridded crop model datasets: none, low (LPJmL), and high (Pegasus). Applying formulations for decomposition of climate change impacts response developed in prior AgMIP work, we find that at the global level, availability of high-yielding technologies mitigates price shocks and shifts the agricultural sector's climate response modestly towards intensification, away from cropland expansion and reduced production. At the regional level, the behavior is more complex; nevertheless, availability of high-yielding production technologies enhances the inter-regional shifts in agricultural production that are induced by climate change, complemented by commensurate changes in trade patterns. The results highlight the importance of policies to facilitate yield gap closure and inter-regional trade as mechanisms for adapting to climate change

  20. Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation using an economic pluvial flood risk framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    It is anticipated that climate change is likely to lead to an increasing risk level of flooding in cities in northern Europe. One challenging question is how to best address the increasing flood risk and assess the costs and benefits of adapting to such changes. We established an integrated...... approach for identification and assessment of climate change adaptation options by incorporating climate change impacts, flood inundation modelling, economic tool and risk assessment and management. The framework is further extended and adapted by embedding a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the total...

  1. Use of RCM simulations to assess the impact of climate change on wind energy availability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pryor, S.C.; Barthelmie, Rebecca Jane

    2004-01-01

    There is considerable interest in the potential impact of climate change on the feasibility and predictability of renewable energy sources including wind energy. This report presents an application and evaluation of physical (dynamical) downscaling toolsfor examining the impact of climate change...... on near-surface flow and hence wind energy density across northern Europe. It is shown that: - Simulated wind fields using the Rossby Centre coupled Regional Climate Model (RCM) (RCAO) during the control period(1961-1990) exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in in situ observations...... and reanalysis data products. - The differences between near-surface wind speed and direction calculated for the control run (January 1, 1961 – December 30, 1990)based on boundary conditions derived from two Global Climate Models (GCM): HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 are comparable to changes in the climate change...

  2. Do changes in environmental and fishing pressures impact marine communities? An empirical assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rochet, M.J.; Trenkel, V.M.; Carpentier, A.; Coppin, F.; Sola, L.G.; Leaute, J.P.; Mahe, J.C.; Maiorano, P.; Mannini, A.; Murenu, M.; Piet, G.J.; Politou, C.Y.; Reale, B.; Spedicato, M.T.; Tserpes, G.; Bertrand, J.A.

    2010-01-01

    1. The development of ecosystem approaches to environmental management implies the need to account for multiple pressures on ecosystems. Trends in multiple metrics that respond differently to changes in major environmental pressures need to be combined to evaluate the impacts of fishing and

  3. Developing a System of National Climate Assessment Indicators to Track Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janetos, A. C.; Kenney, M. A.; Chen, R. S.; Arndt, D.

    2012-12-01

    The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/). Part of the vision for the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process is a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information that is useful to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region. These indicators will be tracked as a part of ongoing assessment activities, with adjustments as necessary to adapt to changing conditions and understanding. The indicators will be reviewed and updated so that the system adapts to new information. The NCA indicator system is not intended to serve as a vehicle for documenting rigorous cause and effect relationships. It is reasonable, however, for it to serve as a guide to those factors that affect the evolution of variability and change in the climate system, the resources and sectors of concern that are affected by it, and how society chooses to respond. Different components of the end-to-end climate issue serve as categories within which to organize an end-to-end system of indicators: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks Atmospheric Composition Physical Climate Variability and Change Sectors and Resources of Concern Adaptation and Mitigation Responses This framing has several advantages. It can be used to identify the different components of the end-to-end climate issue that both decision-makers and researchers are interested in. It is independent of scale, and therefore allows the indicators themselves to be described at

  4. Human impacts on terrestrial hydrology: climate change versus pumping and irrigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferguson, Ian M; Maxwell, Reed M

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change is altering terrestrial water and energy budgets, with subsequent impacts on surface and groundwater resources; recent studies have shown that local water management practices such as groundwater pumping and irrigation similarly alter terrestrial water and energy budgets over many agricultural regions, with potential feedbacks on weather and climate. Here we use a fully-integrated hydrologic model to directly compare effects of climate change and water management on terrestrial water and energy budgets of a representative agricultural watershed in the semi-arid Southern Great Plains, USA. At local scales, we find that the impacts of pumping and irrigation on latent heat flux, potential recharge and water table depth are similar in magnitude to the impacts of changing temperature and precipitation; however, the spatial distributions of climate and management impacts are substantially different. At the basin scale, the impacts on stream discharge and groundwater storage are remarkably similar. Notably, for the watershed and scenarios studied here, the changes in groundwater storage and stream discharge in response to a 2.5 °C temperature increase are nearly equivalent to those from groundwater-fed irrigation. Our results imply that many semi-arid basins worldwide that practice groundwater pumping and irrigation may already be experiencing similar impacts on surface water and groundwater resources to a warming climate. These results demonstrate that accurate assessment of climate change impacts and development of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies must account for local water management practices. (letter)

  5. Integrating Plant Science and Crop Modeling: Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Soybean and Maize Production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fodor, Nándor; Challinor, Andrew; Droutsas, Ioannis; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Zabel, Florian; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Foyer, Christine H

    2017-11-01

    Increasing global CO2 emissions have profound consequences for plant biology, not least because of direct influences on carbon gain. However, much remains uncertain regarding how our major crops will respond to a future high CO2 world. Crop model inter-comparison studies have identified large uncertainties and biases associated with climate change. The need to quantify uncertainty has drawn the fields of plant molecular physiology, crop breeding and biology, and climate change modeling closer together. Comparing data from different models that have been used to assess the potential climate change impacts on soybean and maize production, future yield losses have been predicted for both major crops. When CO2 fertilization effects are taken into account significant yield gains are predicted for soybean, together with a shift in global production from the Southern to the Northern hemisphere. Maize production is also forecast to shift northwards. However, unless plant breeders are able to produce new hybrids with improved traits, the forecasted yield losses for maize will only be mitigated by agro-management adaptations. In addition, the increasing demands of a growing world population will require larger areas of marginal land to be used for maize and soybean production. We summarize the outputs of crop models, together with mitigation options for decreasing the negative impacts of climate on the global maize and soybean production, providing an overview of projected land-use change as a major determining factor for future global crop production. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Japanese Society of Plant Physiologists.

  6. Environmental impact assessments of the Three Gorges Project in China: Issues and interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xibao; Tan, Yan; Yang, Guishan

    2013-09-01

    The paper takes China's authoritative Environmental Impact Statement for the Yangzi (Yangtze) Three Gorges Project (TGP) in 1992 as a benchmark against which to evaluate emerging major environmental outcomes since the initial impoundment of the Three Gorges reservoir in 2003. The paper particularly examines five crucial environmental aspects and associated causal factors. The five domains include human resettlement and the carrying capacity of local environments (especially land), water quality, reservoir sedimentation and downstream riverbed erosion, soil erosion, and seismic activity and geological hazards. Lessons from the environmental impact assessments of the TGP are: (1) hydro project planning needs to take place at a broader scale, and a strategic environmental assessment at a broader scale is necessary in advance of individual environmental impact assessments; (2) national policy and planning adjustments need to react quickly to the impact changes of large projects; (3) long-term environmental monitoring systems and joint operations with other large projects in the upstream areas of a river basin should be established, and the cross-impacts of climate change on projects and possible impacts of projects on regional or local climate considered.

  7. Conceptualising the effectiveness of impact assessment processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chanchitpricha, Chaunjit; Bond, Alan

    2013-01-01

    This paper aims at conceptualising the effectiveness of impact assessment processes through the development of a literature-based framework of criteria to measure impact assessment effectiveness. Four categories of effectiveness were established: procedural, substantive, transactive and normative, each containing a number of criteria; no studies have previously brought together all four of these categories into such a comprehensive, criteria-based framework and undertaken systematic evaluation of practice. The criteria can be mapped within a cycle/or cycles of evaluation, based on the ‘logic model’, at the stages of input, process, output and outcome to enable the identification of connections between the criteria across the categories of effectiveness. This framework is considered to have potential application in measuring the effectiveness of many impact assessment processes, including strategic environmental assessment (SEA), environmental impact assessment (EIA), social impact assessment (SIA) and health impact assessment (HIA). -- Highlights: • Conceptualising effectiveness of impact assessment processes. • Identification of factors influencing effectiveness of impact assessment processes. • Development of criteria within a framework for evaluating IA effectiveness. • Applying the logic model to examine connections between effectiveness criteria

  8. Conceptualising the effectiveness of impact assessment processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chanchitpricha, Chaunjit, E-mail: chaunjit@g.sut.ac.th [School of Environmental Health, Suranaree University of Technology, 111 University Avenue, Maung District, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 (Thailand); Bond, Alan, E-mail: alan.bond@uea.ac.uk [School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ (United Kingdom); Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management School of Geo and Spatial Sciences, Internal Box 375, North West University (Potchefstroom campus) (South Africa)

    2013-11-15

    This paper aims at conceptualising the effectiveness of impact assessment processes through the development of a literature-based framework of criteria to measure impact assessment effectiveness. Four categories of effectiveness were established: procedural, substantive, transactive and normative, each containing a number of criteria; no studies have previously brought together all four of these categories into such a comprehensive, criteria-based framework and undertaken systematic evaluation of practice. The criteria can be mapped within a cycle/or cycles of evaluation, based on the ‘logic model’, at the stages of input, process, output and outcome to enable the identification of connections between the criteria across the categories of effectiveness. This framework is considered to have potential application in measuring the effectiveness of many impact assessment processes, including strategic environmental assessment (SEA), environmental impact assessment (EIA), social impact assessment (SIA) and health impact assessment (HIA). -- Highlights: • Conceptualising effectiveness of impact assessment processes. • Identification of factors influencing effectiveness of impact assessment processes. • Development of criteria within a framework for evaluating IA effectiveness. • Applying the logic model to examine connections between effectiveness criteria.

  9. Challenges and Opportunities for Integrating Social Science Perspectives into Climate and Global Change Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, E. K.; Li, J.; Zycherman, A.

    2017-12-01

    Integration of social science into climate and global change assessments is fundamental for improving understanding of the drivers, impacts and vulnerability of climate change, and the social, cultural and behavioral challenges related to climate change responses. This requires disciplinary and interdisciplinary knowledge as well as integrational and translational tools for linking this knowledge with the natural and physical sciences. The USGCRP's Social Science Coordinating Committee (SSCC) is tasked with this challenge and is working to integrate relevant social, economic and behavioral knowledge into processes like sustained assessments. This presentation will discuss outcomes from a recent SSCC workshop, "Social Science Perspectives on Climate Change" and their applications to sustained assessments. The workshop brought academic social scientists from four disciplines - anthropology, sociology, geography and archaeology - together with federal scientists and program managers to discuss three major research areas relevant to the USGCRP and climate assessments: (1) innovative tools, methods, and analyses to clarify the interactions of human and natural systems under climate change, (2) understanding of factors contributing to differences in social vulnerability between and within communities under climate change, and (3) social science perspectives on drivers of global climate change. These disciplines, collectively, emphasize the need to consider socio-cultural, political, economic, geographic, and historic factors, and their dynamic interactions, to understand climate change drivers, social vulnerability, and mitigation and adaptation responses. They also highlight the importance of mixed quantitative and qualitative methods to explain impacts, vulnerability, and responses at different time and spatial scales. This presentation will focus on major contributions of the social sciences to climate and global change research. We will discuss future directions for

  10. Climate Change Impacts on Rivers and Implications for Electricity Generation in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miara, A.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Macknick, J.; Corsi, F.; Cohen, S. M.; Tidwell, V. C.; Newmark, R. L.; Prousevitch, A.

    2015-12-01

    The contemporary power sector in the United States is heavily reliant on water resources to provide cooling water for thermoelectric generation. Efficient thermoelectric plant operations require large volumes of water at sufficiently cool temperatures for their cooling process. The total amount of water that is withdrawn or consumed for cooling and any potential declines in efficiencies are determined by the sector's fuel mix and cooling technologies. As such, the impact of climate change, and the extent of impact, on the power sector is shaped by the choice of electricity generation technologies that will be built over the coming decades. In this study, we model potential changes in river discharge and temperature in the contiguous US under a set of climate scenarios to year 2050 using the Water Balance Model-Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution Model (WBM-TP2M). Together, these models quantify, in high-resolution (3-min), river temperatures, discharge and power plant efficiency losses associated with changes in available cooling water that incorporates climate, hydrology, river network dynamics and multi-plant impacts, on both single power plant and regional scales. Results are used to assess the aptness and vulnerability of contemporary and alternative electricity generation pathways to changes in climate and water availability for cooling purposes, and the concomitant impacts on power plant operating efficiencies. We assess the potential impacts by comparing six regions (Northeast, Southeast, Midwest, Great Plains, Southwest, Northwest as in the National Climate Assessment (2014)) across the US. These experiments allow us to assess tradeoffs among electricity-water-climate to provide useful insight for decision-makers managing regional power production and aquatic environments.

  11. Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, Erwan; Paltsev, Sergey; Sokolov, Andrei; Chen, Y-H Henry; Gao, Xiang; Ejaz, Qudsia; Couzo, Evan; Schlosser, C Adam; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Fant, Charles; Scott, Jeffery; Kicklighter, David; Morris, Jennifer; Jacoby, Henry; Prinn, Ronald; Haigh, Martin

    2018-02-13

    Efforts to estimate the physical and economic impacts of future climate change face substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches to impact analysis-which involve evaluation of a damage function or multi-model comparisons based on a limited number of standardized scenarios-we propose integrating a geospatially resolved physical representation of impacts into a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. Large internationally coordinated exercises cannot easily respond to new policy targets and the implementation of standard scenarios across models, institutions and research communities can yield inconsistent estimates. Here, we argue for a shift toward the use of a self-consistent integrated modeling framework to assess climate impacts, and discuss ways the integrated assessment modeling community can move in this direction. We then demonstrate the capabilities of such a modeling framework by conducting a multi-sectoral assessment of climate impacts under a range of consistent and integrated economic and climate scenarios that are responsive to new policies and business expectations.

  12. prediction of the impacts of climate changes on the stream flow

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HOD

    Soil and Water Assessment Tool, (SWAT) model was used to predict the impacts of Climate Change on Ajali River watershed ... Climate is the synthesis of atmospheric conditions characteristic of a .... generator available in the SWAT model.

  13. Dentigerous Cystic Changes in the Follicles Associated with Radiographically Normal Impacted Mandibular Third Molars

    OpenAIRE

    Ashok Dongol; Alok Sagtani; Mehul Rajesh Jaisani; Arpita Singh; Ashish Shrestha; Anju Pradhan; Pradeep Acharya; Anjani Kumar Yadav; Ram Prasad Yadav; Arun Kumar Mahat; Iccha Kumar Maharjan; Leeza Pradhan

    2018-01-01

    Objective. To assess the incidence of dentigerous cystic changes in the follicles of radiographically normal impacted mandibular third molars. Methods. One hundred and thirteen follicles obtained after surgical removal of impacted mandibular third molars with radiolucency of less than 2.5 mm in the radiograph were sent for histopathologic evaluation to evaluate pathologic changes. Results. The incidence of dentigerous cystic changes observed was 15.9%, that is, 18 out of 113 patients (51 male...

  14. Global economic impacts of climate variability and change during the 20th century

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Estrada, Francisco; Tol, Richard S.J.; Botzen, Wouter J.W.

    2017-01-01

    Estimates of the global economic impacts of observed climate change during the 20th century obtained by applying five impact functions of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) are separated into their main natural and anthropogenic components. The estimates of the costs that can be

  15. Particulate Matter and Health Risk under a Changing Climate: Assessment for Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Dias

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The potential impacts of climate-induced changes in air pollution levels and its impacts on population health were investigated. The IPCC scenario (SRES A2 was used to analyse the effects of climate on future PM10 concentrations over Portugal and their impact on short-term population exposure and mortality. The air quality modelling system has been applied with high spatial resolution looking on climate changes at regional scale. To quantify health impacts related to air pollution changes, the WHO methodology for health impact assessment was implemented. The results point to 8% increase of premature mortality attributed to future PM10 levels in Portugal. The pollution episodes with daily average PM10 concentration above the current legislated value (50 μg·m−3 would be responsible for 81% of attributable cases. The absolute number of deaths attributable to PM10 under future climate emphasizes the importance of indirect effects of climate change on human health.

  16. Handbook for value-impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heaberlin, S.W.; Burnham, J.B.; Gallucci, R.H.V.

    1983-12-01

    The basic purpose of this handbook is to document a set of systematic procedures for providing information that can be used in performing value-impact assessments of Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulatory actions. The handbook describes a structured but flexible process for performing the assessment. Chapter 1 is an introduction to the value-impact assessment process. Chapter 2 describes the attributes most frequently affected by proposed NRC actions, provides guidance concerningthe appropriate level of effort to be devoted to the assessment, suggests a standard format for documenting the assessment, and discusses the treatment of uncertainty. Chapter 3 contains detailed methods for evaluating each of the attributes affected by a regulatory action. The handbook has five appendixes containing background information, technical data, and example applications of the value-impact assessment procedures. This edition of the handbook focuses primarily on assessing nuclear power reactor safety issues

  17. Climate change impact assessment on food security in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ettema, Janneke; Aldrian, Edvin; de Bie, Kees; Jetten, Victor; Mannaerts, Chris

    2013-04-01

    As Indonesia is the world's fourth most populous country, food security is a persistent challenge. The potential impact of future climate change on the agricultural sector needs to be addressed in order to allow early implementation of mitigation strategies. The complex island topography and local sea-land-air interactions cannot adequately be represented in large scale General Climate Models (GCMs) nor visualized by TRMM. Downscaling is needed. Using meteorological observations and a simple statistical downscaling tool, local future projections are derived from state-of-the-art, large-scale GCM scenarios, provided by the CMIP5 project. To support the agriculture sector, providing information on especially rainfall and temperature variability is essential. Agricultural production forecast is influenced by several rain and temperature factors, such as rainy and dry season onset, offset and length, but also by daily and monthly minimum and maximum temperatures and its rainfall amount. A simple and advanced crop model will be used to address the sensitivity of different crops to temperature and rainfall variability, present-day and future. As case study area, Java Island is chosen as it is fourth largest island in Indonesia but contains more than half of the nation's population and dominates it politically and economically. The objective is to identify regions at agricultural risk due to changing patterns in precipitation and temperature.

  18. Environmental Impact Assessment in the Visegrad Group countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gałaś, Slávka, E-mail: sgalas@geol.agh.edu.pl [AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Geology, Geophysics and Environmental Protection, Department of Environmental Analysis, Cartography and Economic Geology Al. Mickiewicza 30, 30 059 Krakow (Poland); Gałaś, Andrzej, E-mail: pollux@geol.agh.edu.pl [AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Geology, Geophysics and Environmental Protection, Department of Environmental Analysis, Cartography and Economic Geology Al. Mickiewicza 30, 30 059 Krakow (Poland); Zeleňáková, Martina, E-mail: martina.zelenakova@tuke.sk [Technical University of Košice, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Institute of Environmental Engineering, Vysokoškolská 4, 042 00 Košice (Slovakia); Zvijáková, Lenka, E-mail: lenkazvijakova@gmail.com [Technical University of Košice, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Institute of Environmental Engineering, Vysokoškolská 4, 042 00 Košice (Slovakia); Fialová, Jitka, E-mail: jitka.fialova@mendelu.cz [Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology, Department of Landscape Management, Zemědělská 3, 613 00 Brno (Czech Republic); and others

    2015-11-15

    Highlights: • Comparison and evaluation of EIA systems in the V4 countries are presented. • Strengths and weaknesses of EIA systems based on a questionnaire survey are stated. • The function and efficiency of the EIA application in the V4 countries are analysed. • Irregularities and shortcomings of EIA systems in the V4 should be eliminated. The Environmental Impact Assessment Directive (EIA Directive) has created a reference framework for the implementation of the system of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) into the legal systems of the Member States of the European Union, including the countries belonging to the Visegrad Group (V4): Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Hungary. The Directive was the basis for the introduction of compulsory stages of the EIA process in the V4. The stages were then adapted to national requirements, including thresholds of the qualifying criteria of projects at the screening and scoping stages. The EIA system in the analysed countries has been growing, changing and being modified together with the political and economic changes of the last 30 years. Although all Visegrad Group countries are members of the EU and should harmonize the provisions of the EIA Directive and its amendments, there still exist singularities in each country's national EIA legislation, in terms of complementarities among the V4 countries, access to information resources, protection of natural resources, mitigation of socio-environmental impacts, or transboundary impact assessment. The article compares and evaluates the EIA systems in the four countries, specifies similarities and differences in the implementation of administrative proceedings and points out opportunities to strengthen the system. It presents selected results of a study conducted in 2013 within the framework of the international project “Assessment of the quality of the environment in the V4 Countries” (AQE V4). This paper indicates examples of good practice in the EIA

  19. Environmental Impact Assessment in the Visegrad Group countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gałaś, Slávka; Gałaś, Andrzej; Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka; Fialová, Jitka

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Comparison and evaluation of EIA systems in the V4 countries are presented. • Strengths and weaknesses of EIA systems based on a questionnaire survey are stated. • The function and efficiency of the EIA application in the V4 countries are analysed. • Irregularities and shortcomings of EIA systems in the V4 should be eliminated. The Environmental Impact Assessment Directive (EIA Directive) has created a reference framework for the implementation of the system of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) into the legal systems of the Member States of the European Union, including the countries belonging to the Visegrad Group (V4): Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Hungary. The Directive was the basis for the introduction of compulsory stages of the EIA process in the V4. The stages were then adapted to national requirements, including thresholds of the qualifying criteria of projects at the screening and scoping stages. The EIA system in the analysed countries has been growing, changing and being modified together with the political and economic changes of the last 30 years. Although all Visegrad Group countries are members of the EU and should harmonize the provisions of the EIA Directive and its amendments, there still exist singularities in each country's national EIA legislation, in terms of complementarities among the V4 countries, access to information resources, protection of natural resources, mitigation of socio-environmental impacts, or transboundary impact assessment. The article compares and evaluates the EIA systems in the four countries, specifies similarities and differences in the implementation of administrative proceedings and points out opportunities to strengthen the system. It presents selected results of a study conducted in 2013 within the framework of the international project “Assessment of the quality of the environment in the V4 Countries” (AQE V4). This paper indicates examples of good practice in the EIA

  20. Using Copernicus earth observation services to monitor climate change impacts and adaptations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Daniel; Zebisch, Marc; Sonnenschein, Ruth; Schönthaler, Konstanze; von Andrian-Werburg, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    In the last years, earth observation made a big leap towards an operational monitoring of the state of environment. Remote sensing provides for instance information on the dynamics, trends and anomalies of snow and glaciers, vegetation, soil moisture or water temperature. In particular, the European Copernicus initiative offers new opportunities through new satellites with a higher temporal and spatial resolution, operational services for environmental monitoring and an open data access policy. With the Copernicus climate change service and the ESA climate change initiative, specific earth observation programs are in place to address the impacts of climate change. However, such products and services are until now rarely picked up in the field of policy or decision making oriented climate impact or climate risk assessments. In this talk, we will present results of a study, which focus on the question, if and how remote sensing approaches could be integrated into operational monitoring activities of climate impacts and response measures on a national and subnational scale. We assessed all existing and planned Copernicus services regarding their relevance for climate impact monitoring by comparing them against the indication fields from an indicator system for climate impact and response monitoring in Germany, which has lately been developed in the framework of the German national adaptation strategy. For several climate impact or response indicators, an immediate integration of remote sensing data could be identified and been recommended. For these cases, we will show practical examples on the benefit of remote sensing data. For other indication fields, promising approaches were found, which need further development. We argue that remote sensing is a very valuable complement to the existing indicator schemes by contributing with spatial explicit, timely information but not always easy to integrate with classical approaches, which are oriented towards consistent long

  1. Integrated assessment of the impact of climate and land use changes on groundwater quantity and quality in Mancha Oriental (Spain)

    OpenAIRE

    M. Pulido-Velazquez; S. Peña-Haro; A. Garcia-Prats; A. F. Mocholi-Almudever; L. Henriquez-Dole; H. Macian-Sorribes; A. Lopez-Nicolas

    2014-01-01

    Climate and land use change (global change) impacts on groundwater systems cannot be studied in isolation, as various and complex interactions in the hydrological cycle take part. Land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes have a great impact on the water cycle and contaminant production and transport. Groundwater flow and storage are changing in response not only to climatic changes but also to human impacts on land uses and demands (global change). Changes in future climate an...

  2. Assessing the likely impacts of climate change on pests, diseases and weeds of Australia's temperate plantation forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kriticos, Darren; Leriche, Agathe; Pinkard, Elizabeth A.; Wharton, Trudi N.; Potter, Karina J.B.; Watt, Mike S.; Battaglia, Michael; Richardson, Brian

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: Australia's plantation forests presently cover some 163 milllion hectares, accounting for 105 billion tonnes of carbon. Plantation forests also account for approximately two thirds of the A$18 billion value of turnover in Australia's forest product industries (Bureau of Resource Sciences 2006). Plantation forests also play a small but significant role in mitigating the effects of climate change through sequestration of carbon into durable timber products. However, climate change is likely to pose several direct and indirect challenges to this important industry. One of the indirect challenges is likely to come through changes in the distribution, relative abundance and population dynamics of both native and exotic insects, diseases and weeds (collectively pests) (Sutherst etal. 2007). A series of case studies involving key pests of Eucalypt and Pine plantations are used to explore the likely impacts of climate change on plantation productivity. Global climate model (GCM) scenarios from Ozclim are used with CLIMEX to project changes in the potential distribution and relative abundance of these pests. The GCM results are also used to generate synthetic weather sequences for future climate scenarios. These weather sequences are used in DYMEX models of pest population dynamics to explore non-linear responses of the pest populations. In turn, the DYMEX results are fed into a process-based plant growth model (CABALA), for the three major plantation species in order to assess the likely effects of changing pest populations associated with climate, change on plantation productivity

  3. Impact assessment of the 1977 New York City blackout. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Corwin, J. L.; Miles, W. T.

    1978-07-01

    This study was commissioned by the Division of Electric Energy Systems (EES), Department of Energy (DOE) shortly after the July 13, 1977 New York City Blackout. The objectives were two-fold: to assess the availability and collect, where practical, data pertaining to a wide variety of impacts occurring as a result of the blackout; and to broadly define a framework to assess the value of electric power reliability from consideration of the blackout and its effects on individuals, businesses, and institutions. The impacts were complex and included both economic and social costs. In order to systematically classify the most significant of these impacts and provide guidance for data collection, impact classification schemes were developed. Major economic impact categories examined are business; government; utilities (Consolidated Edison); insurance industry; public health services; and other public services. Impacts were classified as either direct or indirect depending upon whether the impact was due to a cessation of electricity or a response to that cessation. The principal economic costs of the blackout are shown. Social impacts, i.e., the changes in social activities and adaptations to these changes were particularly significant in New York due to its unique demographic and geographic characteristics. The looting and arson that accompanied the blackout set aside the NYC experience from other similar power failures. (MCW)

  4. Hydrological impacts of global land cover change and human water use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. H. C. Bosmans

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Human impacts on global terrestrial hydrology have been accelerating during the 20th century. These human impacts include the effects of reservoir building and human water use, as well as land cover change. To date, many global studies have focussed on human water use, but only a few focus on or include the impact of land cover change. Here we use PCR-GLOBWB, a combined global hydrological and water resources model, to assess the impacts of land cover change as well as human water use globally in different climatic zones. Our results show that land cover change has a strong effect on the global hydrological cycle, on the same order of magnitude as the effect of human water use (applying irrigation, abstracting water, for industrial use for example, including reservoirs, etc.. When globally averaged, changing the land cover from that of 1850 to that of 2000 increases discharge through reduced evapotranspiration. The effect of land cover change shows large spatial variability in magnitude and sign of change depending on, for example, the specific land cover change and climate zone. Overall, land cover effects on evapotranspiration are largest for the transition of tall natural vegetation to crops in energy-limited equatorial and warm temperate regions. In contrast, the inclusion of irrigation, water abstraction and reservoirs reduces global discharge through enhanced evaporation over irrigated areas and reservoirs as well as through water consumption. Hence, in some areas land cover change and water distribution both reduce discharge, while in other areas the effects may partly cancel out. The relative importance of both types of impacts varies spatially across climatic zones. From this study we conclude that land cover change needs to be considered when studying anthropogenic impacts on water resources.

  5. Climate change impact on economical and industrial activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parey, Sylvie; Bernardara, Pietro; Donat, Markus G.

    2010-05-01

    Climate change is underway and even if mitigation measures are successfully implemented, societies will have to adapt to new climatic conditions in the near future and further. This session had been proposed to gather different studies dedicated to the climate change impact on some human activities, and discuss the possible ways of adaptation. Climate change is often presented in terms of global mean temperature evolutions, but what is important for adaptation concerns the local evolutions, and rather of the variability and extremes than of the mean of the involved meteorological parameters. In the session, studies and applications will be presented, covering different economical and industrial activities, such as energy production, (re-) insurance and risk assessment, water management or tourism.

  6. Climate change impacts in Zhuoshui watershed, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Yi-Chiung; Liu, Pei-Ling; Cheng, Chao-Tzuen; Li, Hsin-Chi; Wu, Tingyeh; Chen, Wei-Bo; Shih, Hung-Ju

    2017-04-01

    There are 5.3 typhoons hit Taiwan per year on average in last decade. Typhoon Morakot in 2009, the most severe typhoon, causes huge damage in Taiwan, including 677 casualty and roughly NT 110 billion (3.3 billion USD) in economic loss. Some researches documented that typhoon frequency will decrease but increase in intensity in western North Pacific region. It is usually preferred to use high resolution dynamical model to get better projection of extreme events; because coarse resolution models cannot simulate intense extreme events. Under that consideration, dynamical downscaling climate data was chosen to describe typhoon satisfactorily. One of the aims for Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform (TCCIP) is to demonstrate the linkage between climate change data and watershed impact models. The purpose is to understand relative disasters induced by extreme rainfall (typhoons) under climate change in watersheds including landslides, debris flows, channel erosion and deposition, floods, and economic loss. The study applied dynamic downscaling approach to release climate change projected typhoon events under RCP 8.5, the worst-case scenario. The Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability (TRIGRS) and FLO-2D models, then, were used to simulate hillslope disaster impacts in the upstream of Zhuoshui River. CCHE1D model was used to elevate the sediment erosion or deposition in channel. FVCOM model was used to asses a flood impact in urban area in the downstream. Finally, whole potential loss associate with these typhoon events was evaluated by the Taiwan Typhoon Loss Assessment System (TLAS) under climate change scenario. Results showed that the total loss will increase roughly by NT 49.7 billion (1.6 billion USD) in future in Zhuoshui watershed in Taiwan. The results of this research could help to understand future impact; however model bias still exists. Because typhoon track is a critical factor to consider regional

  7. Assessing climate change impacts on the rape stem weevil, Ceutorhynchus napi Gyll., based on bias- and non-bias-corrected regional climate change projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junk, J.; Ulber, B.; Vidal, S.; Eickermann, M.

    2015-11-01

    Agricultural production is directly affected by projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation. A multi-model ensemble of regional climate change projections indicated shifts towards higher air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns during the summer and winter seasons up to the year 2100 for the region of Goettingen (Lower Saxony, Germany). A second major controlling factor of the agricultural production is the infestation level by pests. Based on long-term field surveys and meteorological observations, a calibration of an existing model describing the migration of the pest insect Ceutorhynchus napi was possible. To assess the impacts of climate on pests under projected changing environmental conditions, we combined the results of regional climate models with the phenological model to describe the crop invasion of this species. In order to reduce systematic differences between the output of the regional climate models and observational data sets, two different bias correction methods were applied: a linear correction for air temperature and a quantile mapping approach for precipitation. Only the results derived from the bias-corrected output of the regional climate models showed satisfying results. An earlier onset, as well as a prolongation of the possible time window for the immigration of Ceutorhynchus napi, was projected by the majority of the ensemble members.

  8. Assessing climate change impacts on the rape stem weevil, Ceutorhynchus napi Gyll., based on bias- and non-bias-corrected regional climate change projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junk, J; Ulber, B; Vidal, S; Eickermann, M

    2015-11-01

    Agricultural production is directly affected by projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation. A multi-model ensemble of regional climate change projections indicated shifts towards higher air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns during the summer and winter seasons up to the year 2100 for the region of Goettingen (Lower Saxony, Germany). A second major controlling factor of the agricultural production is the infestation level by pests. Based on long-term field surveys and meteorological observations, a calibration of an existing model describing the migration of the pest insect Ceutorhynchus napi was possible. To assess the impacts of climate on pests under projected changing environmental conditions, we combined the results of regional climate models with the phenological model to describe the crop invasion of this species. In order to reduce systematic differences between the output of the regional climate models and observational data sets, two different bias correction methods were applied: a linear correction for air temperature and a quantile mapping approach for precipitation. Only the results derived from the bias-corrected output of the regional climate models showed satisfying results. An earlier onset, as well as a prolongation of the possible time window for the immigration of Ceutorhynchus napi, was projected by the majority of the ensemble members.

  9. Incidence of cystic changes in impacted lower third molar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shridevi R Adaki

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To assess the incidence of cystic changes in the impacted lower third molar (ILTM in which the pericoronal (follicular space is less than 2.5 mm as measured from the radiograph. The relationship between the cystic changes and patient′s age, sex, and angular position and contact of ILTM with adjacent tooth was also evaluated. Materials and Methods: Follicular space less than 2.5 mm as measured from the panoramic radiograph was included in the study. A total of 73 tissue samples collected during the extraction ILTM were examined histopathologically. Then the data were analyzed for associations with age, sex, angular position, and contact of the ILTM with an adjacent tooth. Results: There were 37 male and 36 female patients, age ranging from 17 to 35 years (mean 23.95 years. Out of 73 specimens, 17 (23.3% showed cystic changes; among them 16 (22.1% showed dentigerous cysts and 1 (1.2% showed odontogenic keratocysts. Most of the cystic changes occurred in the 26-30 year age range. The cystic changes showed male predominance but could not gain statistical significance. The relationship between cystic changes and angular position was statistically significant (P < 0.05. Higher probability was found in distoangular positioned ILTM. The relationship between cystic changes and communication of ILTM with the second molar was not statistically significant. Conclusion: Incidence of cystic changes in ILTM justifies extraction of the impacted tooth associated with symptoms. The decision to extract or not to extract impacted third molar should be individualized, rather than generalized.

  10. Fisheries: climate change impacts and adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    The report entitled Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation : A Canadian Perspective, presents a summary of research regarding the impacts of climate change on key sectors over the past five years as it relates to Canada. This chapter on fisheries focuses on the impact of climate change on Canada's marine and freshwater fisheries, and the role of adaptation in reducing the vulnerability of the sector. Canadian fisheries encompass the Atlantic, Pacific and Arctic oceans as well as freshwater systems. Fish health, productivity and distribution is strongly influenced by climatic factors such as air and water temperature, precipitation and wind. Most fish species have a distinct set of environmental conditions for optimal growth and survival. If the conditions change in response to changing climate, the fish may be affected. Some of the impacts include reduced growth, increased competition, a shift in species distribution, greater susceptibility to disease, and altered ecosystem function. Studies show that in some areas, fisheries may already be experiencing the effect of climate change. Recommendations were suggested on how to deal with the impacts associated with climate change in sensitive environments. It was noted that actions taken in the fisheries sector will have implications for the water resources, transportation, tourism and human health sectors. 103 refs., 2 tabs., 6 figs

  11. Climatic change impacts in Lombardia region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fiorese, G.; Gatto, M.; De Leo, G.

    2008-01-01

    Climatic change will change significantly our Country through impacts of natural and physical systems, on human health and the productive sectors. This article describes the expected impacts in Lombardia region [it

  12. Knowing your genes: does this impact behaviour change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donovan, Clare B; Walsh, Marianne C; Gibney, Michael J; Brennan, Lorraine; Gibney, Eileen R

    2017-08-01

    It is postulated that knowledge of genotype may be more powerful than other types of personalised information in terms of motivating behaviour change. However, there is also a danger that disclosure of genetic risk may promote a fatalistic attitude and demotivate individuals. The original concept of personalised nutrition (PN) focused on genotype-based tailored dietary advice; however, PN can also be delivered based on assessment of dietary intake and phenotypic measures. Whilst dietitians currently provide PN advice based on diet and phenotype, genotype-based PN advice is not so readily available. The aim of this review is to examine the evidence for genotype-based personalised information on motivating behaviour change, and factors which may affect the impact of genotype-based personalised advice. Recent findings in PN will also be discussed, with respect to a large European study, Food4Me, which investigated the impact of varying levels of PN advice on motivating behaviour change. The researchers reported that PN advice resulted in greater dietary changes compared with general healthy eating advice, but no additional benefit was observed for PN advice based on phenotype and genotype information. Within Food4Me, work from our group revealed that knowledge of MTHFR genotype did not significantly improve intakes of dietary folate. In general, evidence is weak with regard to genotype-based PN advice. For future work, studies should test the impact of PN advice developed on a strong nutrigenetic evidence base, ensure an appropriate study design for the research question asked, and incorporate behaviour change techniques into the intervention.

  13. Comparison of the results of climate change impact assessment between RCP8.5 and SSP2 scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D. K.; Park, J. H.; Park, C.; Kim, S.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change scenarios are mainly published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and include SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) scenarios (IPCC Third Report), RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios (IPCC 5th Report), and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. Currently widely used RCP scenarios are based on how future greenhouse gas concentrations will change. In contrast, SSP scenarios are that predict how climate change will change in response to socio-economic indicators such as population, economy, land use, and energy change. In this study, based on RCP 8.5 climate data, we developed a new Korean scenario using the future social and economic scenarios of SSP2. In the development of the scenario, not only Korea's emissions but also China and Japan's emissions were considered in terms of space. In addition, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions were taken into consideration. Using the newly developed scenarios, the impacts assessments of the forest were evaluated and the impacts were evaluated using the RCP scenarios. The average precipitation is similar to the SSP2 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario, but the SSP2 scenario shows the maximum value is lower than RCP8.5 scenario. This is because the SSP2 scenario simulates the summer precipitation weakly. The temperature distribution is similar for both scenarios, and it can be seen that the average temperature in the 2090s is higher than that in the 2050s. At present, forest net primary productivity of Korea is 693 tC/km2, and it is 679 tC/km2 when SSP2 scenario is applied. Also, the damage of forest by ozone is about 4.1-5.1%. On the other hand, when SSP2 scenario is applied, the forest net primary productivity of Korea is 607 tC/km2 and the forest net primary productivity of RCP8.5 scenario is 657 tC/km2. The analysis shows that the damage caused by climate change is reduced by 14.2% for the SSP2 scenario and 6.9% for the RCP8.5 scenario. The damage caused

  14. Environmental impact assessment of fish farm hatcheries ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Environmental impact assessment of fish farm hatcheries management in lower ... Environmental impact assessments were taken to determine the causes of ... Of significance of impact assessment were activities like air, traffic, noise, had ...

  15. Climatic change impacts, adaptation and associated costs in France. Intermediate report. June 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    This report aims at promoting the awareness of sector-based and land challenges of climate change in terms of impacts. It gives a wide overview of the present knowledge on sector-based vulnerabilities, and allows the identification of some paths for the alleviation of these vulnerabilities. After a discussion of objectives and context, of methodological choices (data, modalities to take impacts and adaptation into account, impact assessment approach) thematic woks are reported. They are dealing with health (population vulnerability to climate change with the example of 2006 heat wave), agriculture, forest and water, energy, tourism, natural risks and insurance, territories. For each of these topics, the reports discusses vulnerability aspects, the present knowledge about the impact of climate change, and identifies the core problems as well as studies which remain to be performed

  16. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Dawson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment priorities for adaptation. The three examples explore interdependencies that arise from (1 climate loading dependence; (2 mediation of two climate impacts by physical processes operating over large spatial extents; and, (3 multiple risks that are influenced by shared climatic and socio-economic drivers. Drawing upon learning from these case studies, and other work, a framework for the analysis and consideration of interdependencies in climate change risk assessment has been developed. This is an iterative learning loop that involves defining the system, scoping interaction mechanisms, applying appropriate modelling tools, identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities, and assessing the performance of adaptation interventions.

  17. Climate change - the impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reysset, Bertrand; Billes-Garabedian, Laurent; Henique, Julien; Pascal, Mathilde; Pirard, Philippe; Motreff, Yvon; Barbault, Robert; Weber, Jacques; Gate, Philippe; Salagnac, Jean-Luc; Desplat, Julien; Kounkou-Arnaud, Raphaelle

    2012-01-01

    This special dossier about the impacts of climate change is made of 6 contributions dealing with: the mitigation of climate effects and how to deal with them (Bertrand Reysset); how to dare and transmit (Laurent Billes-Garabedian); littoral risks, the Pas-de-Calais example (Julien Henique); extreme meteorological events and health impacts (Mathilde Pascal, Philippe Pirard, Yvon Motreff); Biodiversity and climate: the janus of global change (Robert Barbault, Jacques Weber); adapting agriculture to dryness and temperatures (Philippe Gate); Paris and the future heats of the year 2100 (Jean-Luc Salagnac, Julien Desplat, Raphaelle Kounkou-Arnaud)

  18. Environmental impact assessment: Process and implementation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.; Tsai, S.Y.

    1989-01-01

    In this paper, the procedures and issues regarding the preparation of an environmental impact assessment in accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) as promulgated by the US Congress in 1969 are discussed. NEPA procedures and requirements are covered in general, while particular attention is given to the preparation of the environmental impact assessment. Also included is a discussion of the social impact assessment. The aim of the social impact assessment is to address the social issues involved in enhancing public understanding of the hazardous risks, thereby mitigating any conflicts that may arise in the NEPA process. 3 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  19. Climate change and livestock: Impacts, adaptation, and mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Melissa Rojas-Downing

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Global demand for livestock products is expected to double by 2050, mainly due to improvement in the worldwide standard of living. Meanwhile, climate change is a threat to livestock production because of the impact on quality of feed crop and forage, water availability, animal and milk production, livestock diseases, animal reproduction, and biodiversity. This study reviews the global impacts of climate change on livestock production, the contribution of livestock production to climate change, and specific climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in the livestock sector. Livestock production will be limited by climate variability as animal water consumption is expected to increase by a factor of three, demand for agricultural lands increase due to need for 70% growth in production, and food security concern since about one-third of the global cereal harvest is used for livestock feed. Meanwhile, the livestock sector contributes 14.5% of global greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, driving further climate change. Consequently, the livestock sector will be a key player in the mitigation of GHG emissions and improving global food security. Therefore, in the transition to sustainable livestock production, there is a need for: a assessments related to the use of adaptation and mitigation measures tailored to the location and livestock production system in use, and b policies that support and facilitate the implementation of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures.

  20. Agricultural impact of climate change: A general equilibrium analysis with special reference to Southeast Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Zhai, Fan; Zhuang, Juzhong

    2009-01-01

    Capitalizing on the most recent worldwide estimates of the impacts of climate change on agricultural production, this paper assesses the economic effects of climate change for Southeast Asian countries through 2080. The results suggest that the aggregate impacts of agricultural damages caused by climate change on the global economy are moderate. However, the uneven distribution of productivity losses across global regions would bring significant structural adjustments in worldwide agricultura...

  1. Environmental impacts of rapid water level changes; Miljoekonsekvenser av raske vannstandsendringer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arnekleiv, Jo Vegar; Bakken, Tor Haakon; Bogen, Jim; Boensnes, Truls Erik; Elster, Margrethe; Harby, Atle; Kutznetsova, Yulia; Saltveit, Svein Jakob; Sauterleute, Julian; Stickler, Morten; Sundt, Haakon; Tjomsland, Torulv; Ugedal, Ola

    2012-07-01

    This report summarizes the state of knowledge of the environmental impacts of power driving and rapid water level changes and describes possible mitigation measures. The report assesses the environmental effects of possible increased power installation in Mauranger and Tonstad power plants, based on existing data and knowledge. At Straumsmo plants in Barduelva there are collected some physical data and the environmental impact of existing power driving is considered. (eb)

  2. Climate Change and Environmental assessments: Issues in an African Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dalfelt, Arne; Naess, Lars Otto

    1997-12-31

    The present report discusses the potential for integrating climate change issues into environmental assessments of development actions, with an emphasis on sub-Sahara Africa. The study is motivated by the fact that future climate change could have significant adverse impacts on the natural and socio-economic environment in Africa. Yet, to date global change issues, including climate change, have been largely overlooked in the process of improving environmental assessment procedures and methodologies. It is argued that although emissions of greenhouse gases in Africa are negligible today, it is highly relevant to include this aspect in the planning of long-term development strategies. The report discusses potential areas of conflicts and synergies between climate change and development goals. The general conclusion is that environmental assessments could be an appropriate tool for addressing climate change issues, while there are still several obstacles to its practical implementation. Four priority areas are suggested for further work: (1) Environmental accounting, (2) harmonization and standard-setting, (3) implementation, and (4) risk management. 82 refs., 5 figs., 11 tabs.

  3. Preparing suitable climate scenario data to assess impacts on local food safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, C.; Hofstra, N.; Leemans, R.

    2015-01-01

    Quantification of climate change impacts on food safety requires food safety assessment with different past and future climate scenario data to compare current and future conditions. This study presents a tool to prepare climate and climate change data for local food safety scenario analysis and

  4. Developments in Social Impact Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vanclay, Frank

    2014-01-01

    Along with environmental impact assessment, social impact assessment (SIA) has its origins in the 1970s and has developed from being a tool to meet regulatory requirements, to a discipline that seeks to contribute proactively to better project and policy development and to enhance the wellbeing of

  5. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON EU AGRICULTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shailesh Shrestha

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The current paper investigates the medium term economic impact of climate changes on the EU agriculture. The yield change data under climate change scenarios are taken from the BIOMA (Biophysical Models Application simulation environment. We employ CAPRI modelling framework to identify the EU aggregate economic effects as well as regional impacts. We take into account supply and market price adjustments of the EU agricultural sector as well as technical adaptation of crops to climate change. Overall results indicate an increase in yields and production level in the EU agricultural sector due to the climate change. In general, there are relatively small effects at the EU aggregate. For example, the value of land use and welfare change by approximately between -2% and 0.2%. However, there is a stronger impact at regional level with some stronger effects prevailing particularly in the Central and Northern EU and smaller impacts are observed in Southern Europe. Regional impacts of climate change vary by a factor higher up to 10 relative to the aggregate EU impacts. The price adjustments reduce the response of agricultural sector to climate change in particular with respect to production and income changes. The technical adaption of crops to climate change may result in a change production and land use by a factor between 1.4 and 6 relative to no-adaptation situation.

  6. Classifying multi-model wheat yield impact response surfaces showing sensitivity to temperature and precipitation change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Fronzek, S.; Pirttioja, N. K.; Carter, T. R.; Bindi, M.; Hoffmann, H.; Palosuo, T.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Tao, F.; Trnka, Miroslav; Acutis, M.; Asseng, S.; Baranowski, P.; Basso, B.; Bodin, P.; Buis, S.; Cammarano, D.; Deligios, P.; Destain, M. F.; Dumont, B.; Ewert, F.; Ferrise, R.; Francois, L.; Gaiser, T.; Hlavinka, Petr; Jacquemin, I.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Kollas, C.; Krzyszczak, J.; Lorite, I. J.; Minet, J.; Ines Minguez, M.; Montesino, M.; Moriondo, M.; Mueller, C.; Nendel, C.; Öztürk, I.; Perego, A.; Rodriguez, A.; Ruane, A. C.; Ruget, F.; Sanna, M.; Semenov, M. A.; Slawinski, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Supit, I.; Waha, K.; Wang, E.; Wu, L.; Zhao, Z.; Rötter, R.

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 159, jan (2018), s. 209-224 ISSN 0308-521X Institutional support: RVO:86652079 Keywords : climate - change * crop models * probabilistic assessment * simulating impacts * british catchments * uncertainty * europe * productivity * calibration * adaptation * Classification * Climate change * Crop model * Ensemble * Sensitivity analysis * Wheat Subject RIV: GC - Agronomy OBOR OECD: Agronomy, plant breeding and plant protection Impact factor: 2.571, year: 2016

  7. Environmental impact assessment - a selected bibliography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawson, W.J.

    1989-01-01

    This bibliography of literature relevant to the environmental impact assessment process is essentially a list of material dealing with the environmental impact assessment process held by Griffith University Library. The list is however well supplemented with citations of material not held in the Griffith University Library. Some economic and social impact assessment citations have been included in the bibliography, as the the environmental impact assessment concept has been interpreted very broadly. The citations are arranged according to broad subject areas, such as methodology, critical reviews, social impacts etc. Citations in each of these subject areas, which are listed in the table of contents, are identified by prefixes which are given in parentheses before the subjects headings. Within each subject area the citations are arragend in alphabetic author sequence

  8. 40 CFR 227.22 - Assessment of impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... FOR THE EVALUATION OF PERMIT APPLICATIONS FOR OCEAN DUMPING OF MATERIALS Impact of the Proposed Dumping on Other Uses of the Ocean § 227.22 Assessment of impact. The assessment of impact on other uses... 40 Protection of Environment 24 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Assessment of impact. 227.22 Section...

  9. The Assessment of Sustainability Indexes and Climate Change Impacts on Integrated Water Resource Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel Hernández-Bedolla

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Integrated water resource management (IWRM is facing great challenges due to growing uncertainties caused by climate change (CC, rapid socio-economic and technological changes, and population growth. In the present study, we have developed different indices to assess the availability of water using an IWRM approach. These indices evaluate supply to demands, surface availability, groundwater availability, reservoirs, and environmental flow. Moreover, reliability, resilience, and vulnerability were determined. Sustainability index (SI and sustainability index by groups (SG were determined based on the five indices (all indices vary from 0 to 1. The impacts of climate change affect surface and groundwater availability, as do the agricultural, urban, and industrial requirements on the different supplies. We used the generalized AQUATOOL Decision Support System Shell (DSSS to evaluate the IWRM in the Rio Grande Basin (Morelia, México. Various emission scenarios from representative concentration pathways (RCPs were applied to the basin for the years 2015–2039 and 2075–2099. The results indicate increases in agricultural and urban demand, and decreases in surface runoff, as well as groundwater recharge. The proposed indices are useful for different approaches (decision-makers, water policy, and drought risks, among others. CC significantly affects the different proposed indices and indicates a decrease of the SI, SG1, and SG2 (i.e., less availability. For example, we found that SG2 decreased from 0.812 to 0.195 under the RCP 8.5 2075–2099 scenario, and SG2 equal to 0.252 and 0.326 for the RCP 6.0 2075–2099 and RCP 4.5 2070–2099 scenarios, respectively (values close to 0 indicate worst drought conditions.

  10. A modelling framework to assess climate change and adaptation impact on heterogeneous crop-livestock farming communities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Descheemaeker, K.K.E.; Masikati, P.; Homann-Kee Tui, S.; Chibwana, G.A.; Crespo, O.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change will impact the productivity of maize-based crop-livestock systems and the livelihoods of smallholders depending on them in semi-arid Zimbabwe. The large diversity in resource endowment and production objectives in rural communities differentially influences this impact and the

  11. Environmental Impact Assessment: A Procedure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stover, Lloyd V.

    Prepared by a firm of consulting engineers, this booklet outlines the procedural "whys and hows" of assessing environmental impact, particularly for the construction industry. Section I explores the need for environmental assessment and evaluation to determine environmental impact. It utilizes a review of the National Environmental Policy Act and…

  12. Assessing the influence of climate model uncertanty on EU-wide climate impact indicators

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lung, T.; Dosio, A.; Becker, W.; Lavalle, C.; Bouwer, L.M.

    2013-01-01

    Despite an increasing understanding of potential climate change impacts in Europe, the associated uncertainties remain a key challenge. In many impact studies, the assessment of uncertainties is underemphasised, or is not performed quantitatively. A key source of uncertainty is the variability of

  13. Consistent economic cross-sectoral climate change impact scenario analysis: Method and application to Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl W. Steininger

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change triggers manifold impacts at the national to local level, which in turn have various economy-wide implications (e.g. on welfare, employment, or tax revenues. In its response, society needs to prioritize which of these impacts to address and what share of resources to spend on each respective adaptation. A prerequisite to achieving that end is an economic impact analysis that is consistent across sectors and acknowledges intersectoral and economy-wide feedback effects. Traditional Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs are usually operating at a level too aggregated for this end, while bottom-up impact models most often are not fully comprehensive, focusing on only a subset of climate sensitive sectors and/or a subset of climate change impact chains. Thus, we develop here an approach which applies climate and socioeconomic scenario analysis, harmonized economic costing, and sector explicit bandwidth analysis in a coupled framework of eleven (biophysical impact assessment models and a uniform multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model. In applying this approach to the alpine country of Austria, we find that macroeconomic feedbacks can magnify sectoral climate damages up to fourfold, or that by mid-century costs of climate change clearly outweigh benefits, with net costs rising two- to fourfold above current damage cost levels. The resulting specific impact information – differentiated by climate and economic drivers – can support sector-specific adaptation as well as adaptive capacity building. Keywords: climate impact, local impact, economic evaluation, adaptation

  14. Climate change adaptation impact cost assessment in France. Second phase report. September 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    Firstly, this report presents the context and challenges of works dealing with climate change adaptation assessment: observations and perspectives of climate change, concepts and definitions of adaptation to climate change, adaptation within national, European and international context, objectives and organisation of the France's inter-departmental Group. It describes the chosen methodology: hypothesis, methodological tools (climate model), bibliographical tool, and heat wave counting methodology. It discusses the present results, outlines the encountered difficulties and discusses the perspectives for future work

  15. Methodology for qualitative uncertainty assessment of climate impact indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Juliane; Keup-Thiel, Elke; Rechid, Diana; Hänsler, Andreas; Pfeifer, Susanne; Roth, Ellinor; Jacob, Daniela

    2016-04-01

    The FP7 project "Climate Information Portal for Copernicus" (CLIPC) is developing an integrated platform of climate data services to provide a single point of access for authoritative scientific information on climate change and climate change impacts. In this project, the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) has been in charge of the development of a methodology on how to assess the uncertainties related to climate impact indicators. Existing climate data portals mainly treat the uncertainties in two ways: Either they provide generic guidance and/or express with statistical measures the quantifiable fraction of the uncertainty. However, none of the climate data portals give the users a qualitative guidance how confident they can be in the validity of the displayed data. The need for such guidance was identified in CLIPC user consultations. Therefore, we aim to provide an uncertainty assessment that provides the users with climate impact indicator-specific guidance on the degree to which they can trust the outcome. We will present an approach that provides information on the importance of different sources of uncertainties associated with a specific climate impact indicator and how these sources affect the overall 'degree of confidence' of this respective indicator. To meet users requirements in the effective communication of uncertainties, their feedback has been involved during the development process of the methodology. Assessing and visualising the quantitative component of uncertainty is part of the qualitative guidance. As visual analysis method, we apply the Climate Signal Maps (Pfeifer et al. 2015), which highlight only those areas with robust climate change signals. Here, robustness is defined as a combination of model agreement and the significance of the individual model projections. Reference Pfeifer, S., Bülow, K., Gobiet, A., Hänsler, A., Mudelsee, M., Otto, J., Rechid, D., Teichmann, C. and Jacob, D.: Robustness of Ensemble Climate Projections

  16. How is climate change impacting precipitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidari, A.; Houser, P. R.

    2015-12-01

    Water is an integrating component of the climate, energy and geochemical cycles, regulating biological and ecological activities at all spatial and temporal scales. The most significant climate warming manifestation would be a change in the distribution of precipitation and evaporation, and the exacerbation of extreme hydrologic events. Due to this phenomenon and the fact that precipitation is the most important component of the water cycle, the assumption of its stationarity for water management and engineering design should be examined closely. The precipitation Annual Maximum Series (AMS) over some stations in Virginia based on in situ data were been used as a starting point to examine this important issue. We analyzed the AMS precipitation on NOAA data for the stations close to Fairfax VA, looked for trends in extreme values, and applied our new method of Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) theory based on quadratic forms to address changes in those extreme values and to quantify non-stationarities. It is very important to address the extreme values of precipitation based on several statistical tests to have better understanding of climate change impact on the extreme water cycle events. In our study we compared our results with the conclusion on NOAA atlas 14 Ap.3 which found no sign of precipitation non-stationarity. We then assessed the impact of this uncertainty in IDF curves on the flood map of Fairfax and compared the results with the classic IDF curves.

  17. Climate change impacts on coffee rust disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfonsi, W. M. V.; Koga-Vicente, A.; Pinto, H. S.; Alfonsi, E. L., Sr.; Coltri, P. P.; Zullo, J., Jr.; Patricio, F. R.; Avila, A. M. H. D.; Gonçalves, R. R. D. V.

    2016-12-01

    Changes in climate conditions and in extreme weather events may affect the food security due to impacts in agricultural production. Despite several researches have been assessed the impacts of extremes in yield crops in climate change scenarios, there is the need to consider the effects in pests and diseases which increase losses in the sector. Coffee Arabica is an important commodity in world and plays a key role in Brazilian agricultural exports. Although the coffee crop has a world highlight, its yield is affected by several factors abiotic or biotic. The weather as well pests and diseases directly influence the development and coffee crop yield. These problems may cause serious damage with significant economic impacts. The coffee rust, caused by the fungus Hemileia vastarix,is among the diseases of greatest impact for the crop. The disease emerged in Brazil in the 70s and is widely spread in all producing regions of coffee in Brazil, and in the world. Regions with favorable weather conditions for the pathogen may exhibit losses ranging from 30% to 50% of the total grain production. The evaluation of extreme weather events of coffee rust disease in futures scenarios was carried out using the climatic data from CMIP5 models, data field of coffee rust disease incidence and, incubation period simulation data for Brazilian municipalities. Two Regional Climate Models were selected, Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5, and the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 w/m2 was adopted. The outcomes pointed out that in these scenarios the period of incubation tends to decrease affecting the coffee rust disease incidence, which tends to increase. Nevertheless, the changing in average trends tends to benefit the reproduction of the pathogen. Once the temperature threshold for the disease reaches the adverse conditions it may be unfavorable for the incidence.

  18. Impacts of Climate Change on Tibetan Lakes: Patterns and Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dehua Mao

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available High-altitude inland-drainage lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP, the earth’s third pole, are very sensitive to climate change. Tibetan lakes are important natural resources with important religious, historical, and cultural significance. However, the spatial patterns and processes controlling the impacts of climate and associated changes on Tibetan lakes are largely unknown. This study used long time series and multi-temporal Landsat imagery to map the patterns of Tibetan lakes and glaciers in 1977, 1990, 2000, and 2014, and further to assess the spatiotemporal changes of lakes and glaciers in 17 TP watersheds between 1977 and 2014. Spatially variable changes in lake and glacier area as well as climatic factors were analyzed. We identified four modes of lake change in response to climate and associated changes. Lake expansion was predominantly attributed to increased precipitation and glacier melting, whereas lake shrinkage was a main consequence of a drier climate or permafrost degradation. These findings shed new light on the impacts of recent environmental changes on Tibetan lakes. They suggest that protecting these high-altitude lakes in the face of further environmental change will require spatially variable policies and management measures.

  19. Assessing the Impact of a Human Rights-Based Approach across a Spectrum of Change for Women's, Children's, and Adolescents' Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Rebekah; Kuruvilla, Shyama; Hinton, Rachel; Jensen, Steven L B; Magar, Veronica; Bustreo, Flavia

    2015-12-10

    Global momentum around women's, children's, and adolescents' health, coupled with the ambitious and equalizing agenda of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), has exposed a tension between the need for comprehensive, multi-actor, rights-based approaches that seek to "close the gaps" and a growing economic and political imperative to demonstrate efficiency, effectiveness, and returns on specific investments. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a framework to measure "results" in a way that offers a more nuanced understanding of the impact of human rights-based approaches and their complexity, as well as their contextual, multi-sectoral, and evolving nature. We argue that the impact of human rights-based approaches is best measured across a spectrum of change-at the individual, programmatic, structural, and societal levels. Such an analysis would allow for more accurate assessments of the cumulative effect of these changes. The paper also underscores the long-overdue need to better define the parameters of a human rights-based approach to health. This is an important part of the research agenda on human rights and health in the context of the SDGs and the Global Strategy for Women's, Children's and Adolescents' Health, and amid calls for better measurement and greater accountability for resources, results, and rights at all levels. While this paper focuses on women's, children's, and adolescents' health, the proposed framework can apply as readily to other areas of health and provides a new frame of reference for assessing the impact of human rights-based approaches. Copyright © 2015 Thomas, Kuruvilla, Hinton, Jensen, Magar, Bustreo. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/), which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

  20. Adapting to the impacts of climate change and variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mortsch, L.; Koshida, G.; Tavares, D.

    1993-05-01

    A workshop was held to encourage awareness of the climate change impact issues and build collaboration among the Great Lakes/St. Lawrence basin (GLSLB) research, resource management, and policy-making community; to identify research opportunities to address the issues of water management, ecosystem health, human health, and land use and management; and to recommend directions and priority areas for future studies to develop an integrated climate impact assessment for the GLSLB. Presentations at the workshop were on topics including an overview of the GLSLB Project, the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand, and impacts on water quality, fisheries, wetlands, agriculture, shoreline management, and human health. Panel sessions were also convened to discuss information requirements that would assist in decision- and policy-making and to address the concept of integration. Working groups on water management, ecosystem health, land use and management, and human health were formed and made recommendations. A synthesis is presented of the reports from and recommendations of the four working groups as well as extended abstracts of the plenary presentations. A separate abstract has been prepared for one of the presentations from this workshop

  1. Advancing the theory and practice of impact assessment: Setting the research agenda

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pope, Jenny, E-mail: jenny@integral-sustainability.net [Integral Sustainability, PO Box 79, South Fremantle WA 6162 (Australia); School of Geo and Spatial Sciences, North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, Private Bag X6001, Potchefstroom 2520 (South Africa); Curtin University Sustainability Policy Institute, GPO Box U1987, Perth WA 6845 (Australia); Bond, Alan, E-mail: alan.bond@uea.ac.uk [School of Geo and Spatial Sciences, North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, Private Bag X6001, Potchefstroom 2520 (South Africa); School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, Norfolk NR4 7TJ (United Kingdom); Morrison-Saunders, Angus, E-mail: a.morrison-saunders@murdoch.edu.au [Integral Sustainability, PO Box 79, South Fremantle WA 6162 (Australia); School of Geo and Spatial Sciences, North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, Private Bag X6001, Potchefstroom 2520 (South Africa); School of Environmental Science, Murdoch University, South St, Murdoch WA 6150 (Australia); Retief, Francois, E-mail: francois.retief@nwu.ac.za [School of Geo and Spatial Sciences, North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, Private Bag X6001, Potchefstroom 2520 (South Africa)

    2013-07-15

    Impact assessment has been in place for over 40 years and is now practised in some form in all but two of the world's nations. In this paper we reflect on the state of the art of impact assessment theory and practice, focusing on six well-established forms: EIA, SEA, policy assessment, SIA, HIA and sustainability assessment. We note that although the fundamentals of impact assessment have their roots in the US National Environmental Policy Act 1969 (NEPA) each branch of the field is distinct in also drawing on other theoretical and conceptual bases that in turn shape the prevailing discourse in each case, generating increasing degrees of specialisation within each sub-field. Against this backdrop, we consider the strengths and weaknesses of collective impact assessment practice, concluding that although there are substantial strengths, the plethora of specialist branches is generating a somewhat confusing picture and lack of clarity regarding how the pieces of the impact assessment jigsaw puzzle fit together. We use this review to suggest an overarching research agenda that will enable impact assessment to evolve in line with changing expectations for what it should deliver. -- Highlights: ► Strengths, weakness, opportunities and threats for IA are explored in this paper ► EIA, SEA, policy assessment, SIA, HIA and sustainability assessment are reviewed ► Diversity of practice is both a strength and weakness in the current economic climate ► There are opportunities to simplify IA by focusing on common and fundamental elements ► Continued research into theory related to IA effectiveness is also essential.

  2. Advancing the theory and practice of impact assessment: Setting the research agenda

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pope, Jenny; Bond, Alan; Morrison-Saunders, Angus; Retief, Francois

    2013-01-01

    Impact assessment has been in place for over 40 years and is now practised in some form in all but two of the world's nations. In this paper we reflect on the state of the art of impact assessment theory and practice, focusing on six well-established forms: EIA, SEA, policy assessment, SIA, HIA and sustainability assessment. We note that although the fundamentals of impact assessment have their roots in the US National Environmental Policy Act 1969 (NEPA) each branch of the field is distinct in also drawing on other theoretical and conceptual bases that in turn shape the prevailing discourse in each case, generating increasing degrees of specialisation within each sub-field. Against this backdrop, we consider the strengths and weaknesses of collective impact assessment practice, concluding that although there are substantial strengths, the plethora of specialist branches is generating a somewhat confusing picture and lack of clarity regarding how the pieces of the impact assessment jigsaw puzzle fit together. We use this review to suggest an overarching research agenda that will enable impact assessment to evolve in line with changing expectations for what it should deliver. -- Highlights: ► Strengths, weakness, opportunities and threats for IA are explored in this paper ► EIA, SEA, policy assessment, SIA, HIA and sustainability assessment are reviewed ► Diversity of practice is both a strength and weakness in the current economic climate ► There are opportunities to simplify IA by focusing on common and fundamental elements ► Continued research into theory related to IA effectiveness is also essential

  3. Ground water impact assessment report for the 216-B-3 Pond system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, V.G.; Law, A.G.; Reidel, S.P.; Evelo, S.D.; Barnett, D.B.; Sweeney, M.D.

    1995-01-01

    Ground water impact assessments were required for a number of liquid effluent receiving sites according to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order Milestones M-17-00A and M-17-00B, as agreed upon by the US Department of Energy. This report is one of the last three assessments required and addresses the impact of continued discharge of uncontaminated wastewater to the 216-B-3C expansion lobe of the B Pond system in the 200 East Area until June 1997. Evaluation of past and projected effluent volumes and composition, geohydrology of the receiving site, and contaminant plume distribution patterns, combined with ground water modeling, were used to assess both changes in ground water flow regime and contaminant-related impacts

  4. Impacts and adaptation for climate change in urban forests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnston, M. [Saskatchewan Research Council, Saskatoon, SK (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    Changes to urban trees as a result of climate change were reviewed in order to aid urban forest managers in the development of adaptive climate change strategies. Various climate change models have predicted that winter and spring temperatures will increase. Higher amounts of precipitation are also anticipated. Higher temperatures will results in evapotranspiration, which will cause soil moisture levels to decline. Climatologists have also suggested that very hot days, winter storms and high rainfall events will increase in frequency. In addition, higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) will affect photosynthesis, with associated impacts on urban tree growth. Higher temperatures and longer growing seasons will allow insect populations to build up to higher levels, and warmer and dryer summers are likely to bring longer fire seasons and more severe fires. Urban trees under stress from drought and higher temperatures will be increasingly vulnerable to existing urban stressors such as air pollution and soil compaction. However, the ecological services provided by trees will become more valuable under future climate change regimes, particularly for shading and space cooling, as well as soil aeration and stabilization and the uptake of storm water. It was suggested that future tree growth may be enhanced on sites with adequate water and nutrients, but will probably decline in areas that are already marginal. It was recommended that urban forest managers assess the present vulnerability of trees to climate-related events in order to prepare for future change. Managers should also assess their capacity to implement various strategies through municipal and provincial partnerships. It was observed that decisions taken now about forest management will play out over several decades. It was concluded that maintaining a flexible and resilient urban forest management system is the best defence, as specific climate change impacts cannot be predicted. 18 refs., 4

  5. Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater supplies to the Doñana wetland, Spain

    OpenAIRE

    Jackson, Christopher R.; Guardiola-Albert, Carolina

    2011-01-01

    Climate change impacts on natural recharge and groundwater-wetland dynamics were investigated for the Almonte-Marismas aquifer, Spain, which supports the internationally important Doñana wetland. Simulations were carried out using outputs from 13 global climate models to assess the impacts of climate change. Reductions in flow from the aquifer to streams and springs flooding the wetland, induced by changes in recharge according to different climate projections, were modelled. The results proj...

  6. Knowing the Damages is not Enough: The General Equilibrium Impacts of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Kalkuhl, Matthias; Edenhofer, Ottmar

    2016-01-01

    We show that economies may exhibit a strong endogenous macroeconomic adaptation response to climate change. If climate change induces a structural change to the more productive sector, economies can benefit from climate change though productivities in both sectors are reduced. If climate change causes structural shifts towards the less productive sector, damages are exacerbated by the intersectoral reallocation of labor and intertemporal reallocation of capital. We further assess impacts on l...

  7. Climate Change Impacts on Central China and Adaptation Measures

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    REN Yong-Jian; CUI Jiang-Xue; WAN Su-Qin; LIU Min; CHEN Zheng-Hong; LIAO Yu-Fang; WANG Ji-Jun

    2013-01-01

    In Central China, the obvious climate change has happened along with global warming. Based on the observational analysis, the climate change has significant effects, both positive and negative, in every field within the study area, and with the harmful effects far more prevalent. Under the scenario A1B, it is reported that temperature, precipitation, days of heat waves and extreme precipitation intensity will increase at respective rates of 0.38◦C per decade, 12.6 mm per decade, 6.4 d and 47 mm per decade in the 21st century. It is widely believed that these climate changes in the future will result in some apparent impacts on agro-ecosystems, water resources, wetland ecosystem, forest ecosystem, human health, energy sectors and other sensitive fields in Central China. Due to the limited scientific knowledge and researches, there are still some shortages in the climate change assessment methodologies and many uncertainties in the climate prediction results. Therefore, it is urgent and essential to increase the studies of the regional climate change adaptation, extend the research fields, and enhance the studies in the extreme weather and climate events to reduce the uncertainties of the climate change assessments.

  8. Impacts of climate variability and change on crop yield in sub-Sahara Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, S.; Zhang, J.; Yang, J.; Chen, G.; Xu, R.; Zhang, B.; Lou, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Much concern has been raised about the impacts of climate change and climate extremes on Africa's food security. The impact of climate change on Africa's agriculture is likely to be severe compared to other continents due to high rain-fed agricultural dependence, and limited ability to mitigate and adapt to climate change. In recent decades, warming in Africa is more pronounced and faster than the global average and this trend is likely to continue in the future. However, quantitative assessment on impacts of climate extremes and climate change on crop yield has not been well investigated yet. By using an improved agricultural module of the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM-AG2) driven by spatially-explicit information on land use, climate and other environmental changes, we have assessed impacts of historical climate variability and future climate change on food crop yield across the sub-Sahara Africa during1980-2016 and the rest of the 21st century (2017-2099). Our simulated results indicate that African crop yield in the past three decades shows an increasing trend primarily due to cropland expansion. However, crop yield shows substantially spatial and temporal variation due to inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability and spatial heterogeneity of environmental drivers. Droughts have largely reduced crop yield in the most vulnerable regions of Sub-Sahara Africa. Future projections with DLEM-AG2 show that food crop production in Sub-Sahara Africa would be favored with limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.50 C.

  9. Accounting for Technological Change in Regulatory Impact Analyses: The Learning Curve Technique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taylor, Margaret [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Fujita, K. Sydny [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2013-04-30

    Regulatory impact assessment is formally required by the U.S. and many other nations in order to help governments weigh the costs and benefits of proposed regulations, particularly as they compare to those of alternative actions and other government priorities. 1 One of the “best practices” of regulatory impact assessments, as established by the OECD, is to use estimates of costs that are grounded in economic theory. Economic theory indicates that changes in compliance costs should be expected over time as a result of factors related to technological innovation. But many U.S. regulatory impact assessments have traditionally employed a practice that is in conflict with this expectation: they take current estimates of the costs of complying with a proposed regulation and project that those costs will remain unchanged over the full time period that the regulation would be in effect.

  10. Climate change impact on river flows in Chitral watershed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shakir, A.S.; Rehman, H.U.; Ehsan, S.

    2010-01-01

    The impact of climate change has always been very important for water resources in the world. In countries like Pakistan where different weather conditions exist, the effects of climate change can be more crucial. Generally, the climate changes are considered in terms of global warming i.e. increase in the average temperature of earth's near surface air. The global warming can have a strong impact on river flows in Pakistan. This may be due to the melting of snow and glaciers at a higher rate and changes in precipitation patterns. Glaciers in Pakistan cover about 13,680 km/sup 2/, which is 13% of the mountainous regions of the Upper Indus Basin. Glacier and Snow melt water from these glaciers contributes significantly to the river flows in Pakistan. Due to climate change, the changes in temperature and the amount of precipitation could have diversified effects on river flows of arid and semi-arid regions of Pakistan. This paper reviews the existing research studies on climate change impact on water resources of Pakistan. The past trend of river flows in Pakistan has been discussed with respect to the available data. Further, different projections about future climate changes in terms of glacier melting and changes in temperature and precipitation have also been taken into consideration in order to qualitatively assess the future trend of river flows in Pakistan. As a case study, the flows were generated for the Chitral watershed using UBC Watershed Model. Model was calibrated for the year 2002, which is an average flow year. Model results show good agreement between simulated and observed flows. UBC watershed model was applied to a climate change scenario of 1 deg. C increase in temperature and 15% decrease in glaciated area. Results of the study reveal that the flows were decreased by about 4.2 %. (author)

  11. Environmental impact assessment of nuclear desalination plant at KANUPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sleem, M.

    2010-01-01

    A Nuclear Desalination Demonstration Plant (NDDP) of 1600 m/sup 3//d capacity is being installed at Karachi Nuclear Power Plant (KANUPP). A Nuclear Desalination Plant (NDP) can impact the aquatic environment mainly by subjecting the aquatic life to possible temperature increase and salinity changes in the vicinity of the cooling water and brine discharges. Any wastewater effluent, which will be discharged from the NDDP, may have some adverse effects on the marine life and general environment. In order to protect the environment and comply with the requirement of the Pakistan Environmental Protection Agency (PEPA) an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for the discharged effluent from NDDP was carried out. In the present work baseline study was carried out for project location, climate, water resources, and ecology. Checklist has been prepared for identification of possible environmental impacts of the project and marked as insignificant, small, moderate or major impact. Appropriate mitigation measures have been recommended that can be incorporated into the intended program to minimize environmental impacts identified during the assessment. Specific conclusions of the study and recommendations have also been provided in this paper.

  12. Assessment the impact of samplers change on the uncertainty related to geothermalwater sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wątor, Katarzyna; Mika, Anna; Sekuła, Klaudia; Kmiecik, Ewa

    2018-02-01

    The aim of this study is to assess the impact of samplers change on the uncertainty associated with the process of the geothermal water sampling. The study was carried out on geothermal water exploited in Podhale region, southern Poland (Małopolska province). To estimate the uncertainty associated with sampling the results of determinations of metasilicic acid (H2SiO3) in normal and duplicate samples collected in two series were used (in each series the samples were collected by qualified sampler). Chemical analyses were performed using ICP-OES method in the certified Hydrogeochemical Laboratory of the Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology Department at the AGH University of Science and Technology in Krakow (Certificate of Polish Centre for Accreditation No. AB 1050). To evaluate the uncertainty arising from sampling the empirical approach was implemented, based on double analysis of normal and duplicate samples taken from the same well in the series of testing. The analyses of the results were done using ROBAN software based on technique of robust statistics analysis of variance (rANOVA). Conducted research proved that in the case of qualified and experienced samplers uncertainty connected with the sampling can be reduced what results in small measurement uncertainty.

  13. Climate change impacts on marine biodiversity, fisheries and society in the Arabian Gulf.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colette C C Wabnitz

    Full Text Available Climate change-reflected in significant environmental changes such as warming, sea level rise, shifts in salinity, oxygen and other ocean conditions-is expected to impact marine organisms and associated fisheries. This study provides an assessment of the potential impacts on, and the vulnerability of, marine biodiversity and fisheries catches in the Arabian Gulf under climate change. To this end, using three separate niche modelling approaches under a 'business-as-usual' climate change scenario, we projected the future habitat suitability of the Arabian Gulf (also known as the Persian Gulf for 55 expert-identified priority species, including charismatic and non-fish species. Second, we conducted a vulnerability assessment of national economies to climate change impacts on fisheries. The modelling outputs suggested a high rate of local extinction (up to 35% of initial species richness by 2090 relative to 2010. Spatially, projected local extinctions are highest in the southwestern part of the Gulf, off the coast of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE. While the projected patterns provided useful indicators of potential climate change impacts on the region's diversity, the magnitude of changes in habitat suitability are more uncertain. Fisheries-specific results suggested reduced future catch potential for several countries on the western side of the Gulf, with projections differing only slightly among models. Qatar and the UAE were particularly affected, with more than a 26% drop in future fish catch potential. Integrating changes in catch potential with socio-economic indicators suggested the fisheries of Bahrain and Iran may be most vulnerable to climate change. We discuss limitations of the indicators and the methods used, as well as the implications of our overall findings for conservation and fisheries management policies in the region.

  14. Climate change impacts on marine biodiversity, fisheries and society in the Arabian Gulf.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wabnitz, Colette C C; Lam, Vicky W Y; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Teh, Lydia C L; Al-Abdulrazzak, Dalal; Khalfallah, Myriam; Pauly, Daniel; Palomares, Maria L Deng; Zeller, Dirk; Cheung, William W L

    2018-01-01

    Climate change-reflected in significant environmental changes such as warming, sea level rise, shifts in salinity, oxygen and other ocean conditions-is expected to impact marine organisms and associated fisheries. This study provides an assessment of the potential impacts on, and the vulnerability of, marine biodiversity and fisheries catches in the Arabian Gulf under climate change. To this end, using three separate niche modelling approaches under a 'business-as-usual' climate change scenario, we projected the future habitat suitability of the Arabian Gulf (also known as the Persian Gulf) for 55 expert-identified priority species, including charismatic and non-fish species. Second, we conducted a vulnerability assessment of national economies to climate change impacts on fisheries. The modelling outputs suggested a high rate of local extinction (up to 35% of initial species richness) by 2090 relative to 2010. Spatially, projected local extinctions are highest in the southwestern part of the Gulf, off the coast of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). While the projected patterns provided useful indicators of potential climate change impacts on the region's diversity, the magnitude of changes in habitat suitability are more uncertain. Fisheries-specific results suggested reduced future catch potential for several countries on the western side of the Gulf, with projections differing only slightly among models. Qatar and the UAE were particularly affected, with more than a 26% drop in future fish catch potential. Integrating changes in catch potential with socio-economic indicators suggested the fisheries of Bahrain and Iran may be most vulnerable to climate change. We discuss limitations of the indicators and the methods used, as well as the implications of our overall findings for conservation and fisheries management policies in the region.

  15. Quantifying the detrimental impacts of land-use and management change on European forest bird populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy S I Wade

    Full Text Available The ecological impacts of changing forest management practices in Europe are poorly understood despite European forests being highly managed. Furthermore, the effects of potential drivers of forest biodiversity decline are rarely considered in concert, thus limiting effective conservation or sustainable forest management. We present a trait-based framework that we use to assess the detrimental impact of multiple land-use and management changes in forests on bird populations across Europe. Major changes to forest habitats occurring in recent decades, and their impact on resource availability for birds were identified. Risk associated with these changes for 52 species of forest birds, defined as the proportion of each species' key resources detrimentally affected through changes in abundance and/or availability, was quantified and compared to their pan-European population growth rates between 1980 and 2009. Relationships between risk and population growth were found to be significantly negative, indicating that resource loss in European forests is an important driver of decline for both resident and migrant birds. Our results demonstrate that coarse quantification of resource use and ecological change can be valuable in understanding causes of biodiversity decline, and thus in informing conservation strategy and policy. Such an approach has good potential to be extended for predictive use in assessing the impact of possible future changes to forest management and to develop more precise indicators of forest health.

  16. The Northern Climate Exchange Gap Analysis Project : an assessment of the current state of knowledge about the impacts of climate change in northern Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    The Northern Climate ExChange (NCE) Gap Analysis Project was launched in 1999 with an objective to assess the state of knowledge on climate change in northern Canada. Resulting products of the project have included the Infosource Database, an on-line database of published climate change research related to the Canadian North, the Directory of Contacts, another on-line database of interested parties to climate change issues, and a set of tables that rate the level of available information on climate change as it relates to natural, economic and community systems. Other products include a report of a workshop on climate change research, 2 reports assessing the level of traditional northern knowledge about climate change, 2 reports assessing the completeness and value of the Infosource Database, a web site for NCE, and this report. All products are available to the public on the Internet or on a CD-ROM. The NCE Gap Analysis Project has shown there are inequalities in the amount of information across different systems, and that there is more knowledge on predicted temperature changes than for other climate components. The study notes that there are strong regional trends for compiled knowledge, with some regions having been better studied than others. The project revealed that traditional knowledge of climate change has not been well documented, and that more information exists about climate change impacts on biological systems with an economic component than those without economic significance. refs., tabs., figs

  17. Assessing the impacts induced by global climate change through a multi-risk approach: lessons learned from the North Adriatic coast (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallina, Valentina; Torressan, Silvia; Zabeo, Alex; Critto, Andrea; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is expected to pose a wide range of impacts on natural and human systems worldwide, increasing risks from long-term climate trends and disasters triggered by weather extremes. Accordingly, in the future, one region could be potentially affected by interactions, synergies and trade-offs of multiple hazards and impacts. A multi-risk risk approach is needed to effectively address multiple threats posed by climate change across regions and targets supporting decision-makers toward a new paradigm of multi-hazard and risk management. Relevant initiatives have been already developed for the assessment of multiple hazards and risks affecting the same area in a defined timeframe by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Most of them are addressing the relations of different natural hazards, however, the effect of future climate change is usually not considered. In order to fill this gap, an advanced multi-risk methodology was developed at the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC) for estimating cumulative impacts related to climate change at the regional (i.e. sub-national) scale. This methodology was implemented into an assessment tool which allows to scan and classify quickly natural systems and human assets at risk resulting from different interacting hazards. A multi-hazard index is proposed to evaluate the relationships of different climate-related hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, coastal erosion, storm surge) occurring in the same spatial and temporal area, by means of an influence matrix and the disjoint probability function. Future hazard scenarios provided by regional climate models are used as input for this step in order to consider possible effects of future climate change scenarios. Then, the multi-vulnerability of different exposed receptors (e.g. natural systems, beaches, agricultural and urban areas) is estimated through a variety of vulnerability indicators (e.g. vegetation cover, sediment budget, % of urbanization

  18. Environmental impact of climate change in pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, S.; Raja, I.A.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change results in the increase or decrease in temperature and rainfall. These have significant impact on environment - impinge agricultural crop yields, affect human health, cause changes to forests and other ecosystems, and even impact our energy supply. Climate change is a global phenomenon and its impact can be observed on Pakistan's economy and environment. This paper contains details concerning the climate change and environmental impacts. It takes into account current and projected key vulnerabilities, prospects for adaptation, and the relationships between climate change mitigation and environment. The purpose of the study is to devise national policies and incentive systems combined with national level capacity-building programs to encourage demand-oriented conservation technologies. Recommendations are also made to abate the climate change related issues in country. (author)

  19. Climate Change Impact Assessment for Sustainable Water Quality Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Pin Tung

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of sustainable water quality management is to keep total pollutant discharges from exceeding the assimilation capacity of a water body. Climate change may influence streamflows, and further alter assimilation capacity and degrade river sustainability. The purposes of this study are to evaluate the effect of climate change on sustainable water quality management and design an early warning indicator to issue warnings on river sustainability. A systematic assessment procedure is proposed here, including a weather generation model, the streamflow component of GWLF, QUAL2E, and an optimization model. The Touchen creek in Taiwan is selected as the study area. Future climate scenarios derived from projections of four global climate models (GCMs and two pollutant discharge scenarios, as usual and proportional to population, are considered in this study. The results indicate that streamflows may very likely increase in humid seasons and decrease in arid seasons, respectively. The reduction of streamflow in arid seasons may further degrade water quality and assimilation capacity. In order to provide warnings to trigger necessary adaptation strategies, an early warning indicator is designed and its 30-year moving average is calculated. Finally, environmental monitoring systems and methods to prioritize adaptation strategies are discussed for further studies in the future.

  20. Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Enriquez-de-Salamanca, Alvaro; Diaz Sierra, R.; Martin-Aranda, Rosa; Ferreira Dos Santos, M.J.

    Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship

  1. Groundwater vulnerability to climate change: A review of the assessment methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aslam, Rana Ammar; Shrestha, Sangam; Pandey, Vishnu Prasad

    2018-01-15

    Impacts of climate change on water resources, especially groundwater, can no longer be hidden. These impacts are further exacerbated under the integrated influence of climate variability, climate change and anthropogenic activities. The degree of impact varies according to geographical location and other factors leading systems and regions towards different levels of vulnerability. In the recent past, several attempts have been made in various regions across the globe to quantify the impacts and consequences of climate and non-climate factors in terms of vulnerability to groundwater resources. Firstly, this paper provides a structured review of the available literature, aiming to critically analyse and highlight the limitations and knowledge gaps involved in vulnerability (of groundwater to climate change) assessment methodologies. The effects of indicator choice and the importance of including composite indicators are then emphasised. A new integrated approach for the assessment of groundwater vulnerability to climate change is proposed to successfully address those limitations. This review concludes that the choice of indicator has a significant role in defining the reliability of computed results. The effect of an individual indicator is also apparent but the consideration of a combination (variety) of indicators may give more realistic results. Therefore, in future, depending upon the local conditions and scale of the study, indicators from various groups should be chosen. Furthermore, there are various assumptions involved in previous methodologies, which limit their scope by introducing uncertainty in the calculated results. These limitations can be overcome by implementing the proposed approach. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Environmental impact assessment screening tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-05-01

    An environmental assessment and impact planning software, SCREENER, was tested at a pilot project at the Cameco site (Port Hope). SCREENER was used to screen the impacts of a new construction project in accordance with the process and reporting requirements laid out in the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act. The software test concentrated on the activities that are directly involved with the structure construction and site preparation activities. In addition, a two and one half day training course was given to three AECB staff using the test case as a hands on example. The conclusion of this project is that an automated tool such as SCREENER (or Calyx, the new generation of environmental assessment tools from ESSA Software Ltd.), will help the AECB to standardize the approach to environmental assessment, assist in project planning, and save resources in the screening process. The new approach could allow to allocate AECB limited resources to the detailed assessments required for maximum impact activities. 2 figs. 7 refs.

  3. Environmental impact assessment screening tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-05-01

    An environmental assessment and impact planning software, SCREENER, was tested at a pilot project at the Cameco site (Port Hope). SCREENER was used to screen the impacts of a new construction project in accordance with the process and reporting requirements laid out in the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act. The software test concentrated on the activities that are directly involved with the structure construction and site preparation activities. In addition, a two and one half day training course was given to three AECB staff using the test case as a hands on example. The conclusion of this project is that an automated tool such as SCREENER (or Calyx, the new generation of environmental assessment tools from ESSA Software Ltd.), will help the AECB to standardize the approach to environmental assessment, assist in project planning, and save resources in the screening process. The new approach could allow to allocate AECB limited resources to the detailed assessments required for maximum impact activities

  4. Impact assessment of ionising radiation on wildlife

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Copplestone, D.; Bielby, S.; Jones, S.

    2001-01-01

    This R and D project was commissioned by the Environment Agency and English Nature in January 2001 to provide up-to-date information on the impacts of ionising radiation on wildlife, upon which a robust assessment approach may be developed. This approach will also feed into the European Commission funded project 'Framework for Assessment of Environmental Impact' (FASSET), due to complete in October 2003. This report describes the behaviour and transport of radionuclides in the environment, considers the impact of ionising radiation on wildlife, and makes recommendations on an approach for the impact assessment of ionising radiation on wildlife for England and Wales. The assessment approach focuses on three ecosystems representative of those considered potentially most at risk from the impact of authorised radioactive discharges, namely a coastal grassland (terrestrial ecosystem); estuarine and freshwater ecosystems. The likely scale of the impact on wildlife is also assessed in light of a preliminary analysis based on this assessment approach. The aims of the report are: to summarise the latest research on the behaviour, transfer and impact of ionising radiation effects on wildlife; an outline and review of the relevant European and national legislation which has impacts on the requirements for assessments of the impact of ionising radiation on wildlife in the UK; to consider the role of regulatory bodies in assessing the impact of ionising radiation on wildlife with respect to England and Wales; to make recommendations on the relative biological effectiveness of different types of radiation with respect to wildlife; and to recommend an approach to assess the impacts to wildlife from ionising radiation from authorised discharges in England and Wales, with spreadsheets to support the methodology. The report demonstrates the behaviour and transfer of radionuclides in a number of different ecosystem types. Particular emphasis is placed on exposure pathways in those

  5. Impact assessment: Eroding benefits through streamlining?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bond, Alan, E-mail: alan.bond@uea.ac.uk [School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia (United Kingdom); School of Geo and Spatial Sciences, North-West University (South Africa); Pope, Jenny, E-mail: jenny@integral-sustainability.net [Integral Sustainability (Australia); Curtin University Sustainability Policy Institute (Australia); Morrison-Saunders, Angus, E-mail: A.Morrison-Saunders@murdoch.edu.au [School of Geo and Spatial Sciences, North-West University (South Africa); Environmental Science, Murdoch University (Australia); Retief, Francois, E-mail: francois.retief@nwu.ac.za [School of Geo and Spatial Sciences, North-West University (South Africa); Gunn, Jill A.E., E-mail: jill.gunn@usask.ca [Department of Geography and Planning and School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan (Canada)

    2014-02-15

    This paper argues that Governments have sought to streamline impact assessment in recent years (defined as the last five years) to counter concerns over the costs and potential for delays to economic development. We hypothesise that this has had some adverse consequences on the benefits that subsequently accrue from the assessments. This hypothesis is tested using a framework developed from arguments for the benefits brought by Environmental Impact Assessment made in 1982 in the face of the UK Government opposition to its implementation in a time of economic recession. The particular benefits investigated are ‘consistency and fairness’, ‘early warning’, ‘environment and development’, and ‘public involvement’. Canada, South Africa, the United Kingdom and Western Australia are the jurisdictions tested using this framework. The conclusions indicate that significant streamlining has been undertaken which has had direct adverse effects on some of the benefits that impact assessment should deliver, particularly in Canada and the UK. The research has not examined whether streamlining has had implications for the effectiveness of impact assessment, but the causal link between streamlining and benefits does sound warning bells that merit further investigation. -- Highlights: • Investigation of the extent to which government has streamlined IA. • Evaluation framework was developed based on benefits of impact assessment. • Canada, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and Western Australia were examined. • Trajectory in last five years is attrition of benefits of impact assessment.

  6. Impact assessment: Eroding benefits through streamlining?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bond, Alan; Pope, Jenny; Morrison-Saunders, Angus; Retief, Francois; Gunn, Jill A.E.

    2014-01-01

    This paper argues that Governments have sought to streamline impact assessment in recent years (defined as the last five years) to counter concerns over the costs and potential for delays to economic development. We hypothesise that this has had some adverse consequences on the benefits that subsequently accrue from the assessments. This hypothesis is tested using a framework developed from arguments for the benefits brought by Environmental Impact Assessment made in 1982 in the face of the UK Government opposition to its implementation in a time of economic recession. The particular benefits investigated are ‘consistency and fairness’, ‘early warning’, ‘environment and development’, and ‘public involvement’. Canada, South Africa, the United Kingdom and Western Australia are the jurisdictions tested using this framework. The conclusions indicate that significant streamlining has been undertaken which has had direct adverse effects on some of the benefits that impact assessment should deliver, particularly in Canada and the UK. The research has not examined whether streamlining has had implications for the effectiveness of impact assessment, but the causal link between streamlining and benefits does sound warning bells that merit further investigation. -- Highlights: • Investigation of the extent to which government has streamlined IA. • Evaluation framework was developed based on benefits of impact assessment. • Canada, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and Western Australia were examined. • Trajectory in last five years is attrition of benefits of impact assessment

  7. Assessment of human impacts on landuse and vegetation cover ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper is an assessment of the impact of man's activities on the landuse and vegetation cover of Mubi region. Landsat MSS Landuse/vegetation image of 1978 and Spot XS landuse/vegetation image of 1995 were used to study the landuse/vegetation cover changes of the region between 1978 and 1995 – a period of 17 ...

  8. Climate change impact on water resources - Example of an anthropized basin (Llobregat, Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Versini, P.-A.; Pouget, L.; Mc Ennis, S.; Guiu Carrio, R.; Sempere-Torres, D.; Escaler, I.

    2012-04-01

    The impact of climate change is one of the central topics of study by water agencies and companies. Indeed, the forecasted increase of atmospheric temperature may change the amount, frequency and intensity of precipitation and affect the hydrological cycle: runoff, infiltration, aquifer recharge, etc… Moreover, global change combining climate change but also land use and water demand changes, may cause very important impacts on water availability and quality. Global change scenarios in Spain describe a general trend towards increased temperature and water demand, and reduced precipitation as a result of its geographical situation and socio-economic characteristics. The European project WATER CHANGE (included in the LIFE + Environment Policy and Governance program) aims to develop a modeling system to assess the Global Change impacts, and their associated uncertainties, on water availability for water supply and water use. Its objective is to help river basin agencies and water companies in their long term planning and in the definition of adaptation measures. This work presents the results obtained by applying the modelling system to the Llobregat river basin (Spain). This is an anthropized catchment of about 5000 km2, where water resources are used for different purposes, such as drinking water production, agriculture irrigation, industry and hydroelectric energy production. Based on future global change scenarios, the water resources system has been assessed in terms of water deficit and supply. A cost-benefit analysis has also been conducted in order to evaluate every realistic measure that could optimize and improve the system.

  9. Climate change in the Cairns and Great Barrier Reef region. Scope and Focus for an Integrated Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crimp, S.; Balston, J.; Ash, A.; Anderson-Berry, L.; Done, T.; Greiner, R.; Hilbert, D.; Howden, M.; Jones, R.; Stokes, C.; Stoeckl, N.; Sutherst, B.; Whetton, P.

    2004-07-01

    This study was undertaken to determine the scope and focus for an integrated assessment of climate change impacts on, and adaptation options for, the Cairns Great Barrier Reef (CGBR) region. To achieve this, the authors employed both technical expertise and regional stakeholder input. This document describes the study objectives and the process used to meet these objectives, and provides an overview of the CGBR region, the views of technical experts on potential climate change impacts, stakeholder prioritisation of impacts and adaptation options, a list of perceived knowledge gaps, and a recommended structure for a future integrated assessment in the region. The aim of the study was to determine the scope and focus for an integrated regional assessment of climate change impacts on, and adaptation options for, the CGBR region. The key objectives of the study were: Define and describe the study region; Develop a process for the study, which includes key stakeholders in the region; Prepare a comprehensive list of the regional stakeholders; Brief regional stakeholders about potential climate changes in the region; Gain insight from stakeholders into the climatic dependencies of key sectors and issues in the region (agriculture, fishing, forestry, tourism, natural ecosystems, infrastructure, pests, diseases and human health); Identify possible adaptation and/or amelioration strategies for each sector; Identify synergies with other sectors, and possible barriers to undertaking climate change adaptation strategies; Identify knowledge gaps, research priorities and current activities that may need alteration or enhancement; Define the scope of a possible integrated assessment of climate change impacts on, and adaptation options for, the region

  10. Climate change impacts on marine biodiversity, fisheries and society in the Arabian Gulf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Teh, Lydia C. L.; Al-Abdulrazzak, Dalal; Khalfallah, Myriam; Pauly, Daniel; Palomares, Maria L. Deng; Zeller, Dirk; Cheung, William W. L.

    2018-01-01

    Climate change–reflected in significant environmental changes such as warming, sea level rise, shifts in salinity, oxygen and other ocean conditions–is expected to impact marine organisms and associated fisheries. This study provides an assessment of the potential impacts on, and the vulnerability of, marine biodiversity and fisheries catches in the Arabian Gulf under climate change. To this end, using three separate niche modelling approaches under a ‘business-as-usual’ climate change scenario, we projected the future habitat suitability of the Arabian Gulf (also known as the Persian Gulf) for 55 expert-identified priority species, including charismatic and non-fish species. Second, we conducted a vulnerability assessment of national economies to climate change impacts on fisheries. The modelling outputs suggested a high rate of local extinction (up to 35% of initial species richness) by 2090 relative to 2010. Spatially, projected local extinctions are highest in the southwestern part of the Gulf, off the coast of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). While the projected patterns provided useful indicators of potential climate change impacts on the region’s diversity, the magnitude of changes in habitat suitability are more uncertain. Fisheries-specific results suggested reduced future catch potential for several countries on the western side of the Gulf, with projections differing only slightly among models. Qatar and the UAE were particularly affected, with more than a 26% drop in future fish catch potential. Integrating changes in catch potential with socio-economic indicators suggested the fisheries of Bahrain and Iran may be most vulnerable to climate change. We discuss limitations of the indicators and the methods used, as well as the implications of our overall findings for conservation and fisheries management policies in the region. PMID:29718919

  11. Climate change impacts on main agricultural activities in the Oltenia Plain (Romania)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitrica, B.; Mateescu, E.; Dragota, C.; Busuioc, A.; Grigorescu, I.; Popovici, A.

    2012-04-01

    Understanding the key drivers of agriculture in relation to climate change as well as their interrelationship with land management decisions and policies, one may be able to project future agricultural productions under certain economic, environmental, and social scenarios in order to minimize their negative impacts. The paper is aiming to stress upon the importance of modelling the potential impact of climate change on crop production, particularly under the current conditions when natural resources and food supplies are shortening in many parts of the world. Under the given circumstances, in assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Oltenia Plain, the authors used a simulation model CERES (Crop-Environment Resource Synthesis), developed as a predictive and deterministic model, used for basic and applied research on the effects of climate (thermal regime, water stress) and management (fertilization practices, irrigation) on the growth and yield of different crops. In assessing the impact of climate change on maize and autumn wheat crops two applications of CERES model were used: CERES-Wheat and CERES-Maize overlapping two regional climatic scenarios for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 periods. These models describe, based on daily data the basic biophysical processes which take place at the soil-plant-atmosphere interface as a response to the variability of different processes such as: photosynthesis, specific phonological phases, evapotranspiration, water dynamics in soil etc. Assessing the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity under the two regional climatic scenarios (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) will reveal their potential consequences on the main agricultural crops in the Oltenia Plain (autumn wheat and maize) depending on the interaction between local climatic conditions, the effect rising CO2 on photosynthesis and the genetical type of crops. Therefore, the autumn wheat benefits from the interaction between the rise of CO2 and air

  12. A quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Zhiqiang; Pan, Zhihua; An, Pingli; Zhang, Jingting; Zhang, Jun; Pan, Yuying; Huang, Lei; Zhao, Hui; Han, Guolin; Wu, Dong; Wang, Jialin; Fan, Dongliang; Gao, Lin; Pan, Xuebiao

    2018-01-01

    Climate change has greatly affected agriculture. Agriculture is facing increasing risks as its sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change. Scientific assessment of climate change-induced agricultural risks could help to actively deal with climate change and ensure food security. However, quantitative assessment of risk is a difficult issue. Here, based on the IPCC assessment reports, a quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change is proposed. Risk is described as the product of the degree of loss and its probability of occurrence. The degree of loss can be expressed by the yield change amplitude. The probability of occurrence can be calculated by the new concept of climate change effect-accumulated frequency (CCEAF). Specific steps of this assessment method are suggested. This method is determined feasible and practical by using the spring wheat in Wuchuan County of Inner Mongolia as a test example. The results show that the fluctuation of spring wheat yield increased with the warming and drying climatic trend in Wuchuan County. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 3.5 and 64.6%, respectively, for the temperature maximum increase 88.3%, and its risk was 2.2%. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 14.1 and 56.1%, respectively, for the precipitation maximum decrease 35.2%, and its risk was 7.9%. For the comprehensive impacts of temperature and precipitation, the maximum yield decrease and its probability were 17.6 and 53.4%, respectively, and its risk increased to 9.4%. If we do not adopt appropriate adaptation strategies, the degree of loss from the negative impacts of multiclimatic factors and its probability of occurrence will both increase accordingly, and the risk will also grow obviously.

  13. Influence of Geographic Factors on the Life Cycle Climate Change Impacts of Renewable Energy Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortier, M. O. P.

    2017-12-01

    Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a valuable tool to measure the cradle-to-grave climate change impacts of the sustainable energy systems that are planned to replace conventional fossil energy-based systems. The recent inclusion of geographic specificity in bioenergy LCAs has shown that the relative sustainability of these energy sources is often dependent on geographic factors, such as the climate change impact of changing the land cover and local resource availability. However, this development has not yet been implemented to most LCAs of energy systems that do not have biological feedstocks, such as wind, water, and solar-based energy systems. For example, the tidal velocity where tidal rotors are installed can significantly alter the life cycle climate change impacts of electricity generated using the same technology in different locations. For LCAs of solar updraft towers, the albedo change impacts arising from changing the reflectivity of the land that would be converted can be of the same magnitude as other life cycle process climate change impacts. Improvements to determining the life cycle climate change impacts of renewable energy technologies can be made by utilizing GIS and satellite data and by conducting site-specific analyses. This practice can enhance our understanding of the life cycle environmental impacts of technologies that are aimed to reduce the impacts of our current energy systems, and it can improve the siting of new systems to optimize a reduction in climate change impacts.

  14. Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the South Platte River Basin (CO, WY, & NE) and the San Pedro River Basin (U.S./Mexico).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, J. E.; Burns, I. S.; Guertin, D. P.; Kepner, W. G.; Goodrich, D. C.

    2016-12-01

    Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time that was developed and applied on the San Pedro River Basin was expanded and utilized on the South Platte River Basin as well. Future urban growth is represented by housing density maps generated in decadal intervals from 2010 to 2100, produced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize hydrologic impacts from future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The objectives of this project were to 1) develop and implement a methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) present, evaluate, and compare results from scenarios for watersheds in two different geographic and climatic regions, 3) determine watershed specific implications of this type of future land cover change analysis.

  15. Impacts of Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling on Southern Hemisphere Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Feng; Newman, Paul; Pawson, Steven

    2013-01-01

    Climate in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) has undergone significant changes in recent decades. These changes are closely linked to the shift of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) towards its positive polarity, which is driven primarily by Antarctic ozone depletion. There is growing evidence that Antarctic ozone depletion has significant impacts on Southern Ocean circulation change. However, it is poorly understood whether and how ocean feedback might impact the SAM and climate change in the SH atmosphere. This outstanding science question is investigated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry Climate Model(GEOS-AOCCM).We perform ensemble simulations of the recent past (1960-2010) with and without the interactive ocean. For simulations without the interactive ocean, we use sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations produced by the interactive ocean simulations. The differences between these two ensemble simulations quantify the effects of atmosphere-ocean coupling. We will investigate the impacts of atmosphere-ocean coupling on stratospheric processes such as Antarctic ozone depletion and Antarctic polar vortex breakup. We will address whether ocean feedback affects Rossby wave generation in the troposphere and wave propagation into the stratosphere. Another focuson this study is to assess how ocean feedback might affect the tropospheric SAM response to Antarctic ozone depletion

  16. How does the choice of ILCD’s recommended methods change the assessment of environmental impacts in LCA of products?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Owsianiak, Mikolaj; Laurent, Alexis; Bjørn, Anders

    2014-01-01

    on human health and impacts from land use on natural environment; between 1 and 3 orders of magnitude for metal depletion and for toxicity-related impact categories; and within 1 order of magnitude for the remaining impact categories.These differences are caused by the differences in underlying...... environmental impacts and there is large difference in demand for output from that process between the compared options. Nevertheless, the choice of ILCD' matters the most for assessment of impacts from ionizing radiation, land use, resource depletion (minerals), and all toxicity-related impact categories......The European Commission has launched a recommended set of characterization methods for application inlife cycle impact assessment (LCIA). However, it is not known yet whether the choice of the recommended practice, referred to as the ILCD, over existing LCIA methodologies matter for interpretation...

  17. Practitioners, professional cultures, and perceptions of impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgan, Richard K.; Hart, Andrew; Freeman, Claire; Coutts, Brian; Colwill, David; Hughes, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    The very nature of impact assessment (IA) means that it often involves practitioners from a very wide range of disciplinary and professional backgrounds, which open the possibility that how IA is perceived and practised may vary according to the professional background of the practitioner. The purpose of this study is to investigate the extent to which a practitioner's professional background influences their perceptions of the adequacy of impact assessment in New Zealand under the Resource Management Act (RMA). Information gathered concerned professional affiliations, training, understanding of impact assessment practise, and perceptions of adequacy in relation to impact assessment. The results showed a dominance of a legalistic, operational perspective of impact assessment under the Resource Management Act, across all the main professions represented in the study. However, among preparers of impact assessments there was clear evidence of differences between the four main professional groups – surveyors, planners, engineers and natural scientists – in the way they see the nature and purpose of impact assessment, the practical steps involved, and what constitutes adequacy. Similarly, impact assessment reviewers – predominantly planners and lawyers – showed variations in their expectations of impact assessment depending on their respective professional affiliation. Although in many cases the differences seem to be more of a matter of emphasis, rather than major disputes on what constitutes a good process, even those differences can add up to rather distinct professional cultures of impact assessment. The following factors are seen as leading to the emergence of such professional cultures: different professions often contribute in different ways to an impact assessment, affecting their perception of the nature and purpose of the process; impact assessment training will usually be a secondary concern, compared with the core professional training, which will be

  18. Social Impact Assessment : Guidance for assessing and managing the social impacts of projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vanclay, Francis; Esteves, Ana Maria; Aucamp, Ilse; Franks, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this Guidance Note is to provide advice to various stakeholders about what is expected in good practice social impact assessment (SIA) and social impact management processes, especially in relation to project development. Project development refers to dams, mines, oil and gas

  19. The impact of climate change on hydro-electricity generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Musy, A.; Music, B.; Roy, R. [Ouranos, Montreal, PQ (Canada)

    2008-07-01

    Hydroelectricity is a clean and renewable energy source for many countries, and is expected to play an important role in future energy supplies. However, the impact of climatic change on hydroelectricity resources is not yet understood. This study provided a critical review of current methods used to determine the potential impacts of climatic change on hydroelectric power production. General circulation models (GCMs) are used to predict future climate conditions under various greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. Statistical techniques are then used to down-scale GCM outputs to the appropriate scales needed for hydrological models, which are then used to simulate the effects of climatic change at regional and local scales. Outputs from the models are then used to develop water management models for hydroelectric power production. Observed linear trends in annual precipitation during the twentieth century were provided. The theoretical advantages and disadvantages of various modelling techniques were reviewed. Risk assessment strategies for Hydro-Quebec were also outlined and results of the study will be used to guide research programs for the hydroelectric power industry. refs., tabs., figs.

  20. The impact of climate change on hydro-electricity generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Musy, A.; Music, B.; Roy, R.

    2008-01-01

    Hydroelectricity is a clean and renewable energy source for many countries, and is expected to play an important role in future energy supplies. However, the impact of climatic change on hydroelectricity resources is not yet understood. This study provided a critical review of current methods used to determine the potential impacts of climatic change on hydroelectric power production. General circulation models (GCMs) are used to predict future climate conditions under various greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. Statistical techniques are then used to down-scale GCM outputs to the appropriate scales needed for hydrological models, which are then used to simulate the effects of climatic change at regional and local scales. Outputs from the models are then used to develop water management models for hydroelectric power production. Observed linear trends in annual precipitation during the twentieth century were provided. The theoretical advantages and disadvantages of various modelling techniques were reviewed. Risk assessment strategies for Hydro-Quebec were also outlined and results of the study will be used to guide research programs for the hydroelectric power industry. refs., tabs., figs

  1. Road ecology in environmental impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlson, Mårten; Mörtberg, Ulla; Balfors, Berit

    2014-01-01

    Transport infrastructure has a wide array of effects on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and road and railway networks are increasingly being associated with a loss of biodiversity worldwide. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) are two legal frameworks that concern physical planning, with the potential to identify, predict, mitigate and/or compensate transport infrastructure effects with negative impacts on biodiversity. The aim of this study was to review the treatment of ecological impacts in environmental assessment of transport infrastructure plans and projects. A literature review on the topic of EIA, SEA, biodiversity and transport infrastructure was conducted, and 17 problem categories on the treatment of biodiversity were formulated by means of a content analysis. A review of environmental impact statements and environmental reports (EIS/ER) produced between 2005 and 2013 in Sweden and the UK was then conducted using the list of problems as a checklist. The results show that the treatment of ecological impacts has improved substantially over the years, but that some impacts remain problematic; the treatment of fragmentation, the absence of quantitative analysis and that the impact assessment study area was in general delimited without consideration for the scales of ecological processes. Actions to improve the treatment of ecological impacts could include improved guidelines for spatial and temporal delimitation, and the establishment of a quantitative framework including tools, methods and threshold values. Additionally, capacity building and further method development of EIA and SEA friendly spatial ecological models can aid in clarifying the costs as well as the benefits in development/biodiversity tradeoffs. - Highlights: • The treatment of ecological impacts in EIA and SEA has improved. • Quantitative methods for ecological impact assessment were rarely used • Fragmentation effects were recognized

  2. Road ecology in environmental impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlson, Mårten, E-mail: mkarlso@kth.se; Mörtberg, Ulla, E-mail: mortberg@kth.se; Balfors, Berit, E-mail: balfors@kth.se

    2014-09-15

    Transport infrastructure has a wide array of effects on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and road and railway networks are increasingly being associated with a loss of biodiversity worldwide. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) are two legal frameworks that concern physical planning, with the potential to identify, predict, mitigate and/or compensate transport infrastructure effects with negative impacts on biodiversity. The aim of this study was to review the treatment of ecological impacts in environmental assessment of transport infrastructure plans and projects. A literature review on the topic of EIA, SEA, biodiversity and transport infrastructure was conducted, and 17 problem categories on the treatment of biodiversity were formulated by means of a content analysis. A review of environmental impact statements and environmental reports (EIS/ER) produced between 2005 and 2013 in Sweden and the UK was then conducted using the list of problems as a checklist. The results show that the treatment of ecological impacts has improved substantially over the years, but that some impacts remain problematic; the treatment of fragmentation, the absence of quantitative analysis and that the impact assessment study area was in general delimited without consideration for the scales of ecological processes. Actions to improve the treatment of ecological impacts could include improved guidelines for spatial and temporal delimitation, and the establishment of a quantitative framework including tools, methods and threshold values. Additionally, capacity building and further method development of EIA and SEA friendly spatial ecological models can aid in clarifying the costs as well as the benefits in development/biodiversity tradeoffs. - Highlights: • The treatment of ecological impacts in EIA and SEA has improved. • Quantitative methods for ecological impact assessment were rarely used • Fragmentation effects were recognized

  3. Integrated assessment models of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E.A.; Fisher-Vanden, K.

    1997-01-01

    The authors review recent work in the integrated assessment modeling of global climate change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to combine knowledge from multiple disciplines in formal integrated representations; inform policy-making, structure knowledge, and prioritize key uncertainties; and advance knowledge of broad system linkages and feedbacks, particularly between socio-economic and bio-physical processes. They may combine simplified representations of the socio-economic determinants of greenhouse gas emissions, the atmosphere and oceans, impacts on human activities and ecosystems, and potential policies and responses. The authors summarize current projects, grouping them according to whether they emphasize the dynamics of emissions control and optimal policy-making, uncertainty, or spatial detail. They review the few significant insights that have been claimed from work to date and identify important challenges for integrated assessment modeling in its relationships to disciplinary knowledge and to broader assessment seeking to inform policy- and decision-making. 192 refs., 2 figs

  4. Life Cycle Impact Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenbaum, Ralph K.; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Boulay, Anne-Marie

    2018-01-01

    This chapter is dedicated to the third phase of an LCA study, the Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) where the life cycle inventory’s information on elementary flows is translated into environmental impact scores. In contrast to the three other LCA phases, LCIA is in practice largely automated...

  5. Sustainability Impact Assessment of two forest-based bioenergy production systems related to mitigation and adaption to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gartzia-Bengoetxea, Nahia; Arias-González, Ander; Tuomasjukka, Diana

    2016-04-01

    New forest management strategies are necessary to resist and adapt to Climate Change (CC) and to maintain ecosystem functions such as forest productivity, water storage and biomass production. The increased use of forest-based biomass for energy generation as well as the application of combustion or pyrolysis co-products such as ash or biochar back into forest soils is being suggested as a CC mitigation and adaptation strategy while trying to fulfil the targets of both: (i) Europe 2020 growth strategy in relation to CC and energy sustainability and (ii) EU Action Plan for the Circular Economy. The energy stored in harvested biomass can be released through combustion and used for energy generation to enable national energy security (reduced oil dependence) and the substitution of fossil fuel by renewable biomass can decrease the emission of greenhouse gases.In the end, the wood-ash produced in the process can return to the forest soil to replace the nutrients exported by harvesting. Another way to use biomass in this green circular framework is to pyrolyse it. Pyrolysis of the biomass produce a carbon-rich product (biochar) that can increase carbon sequestration in the soils and liquid and gas co-products of biomass pyrolysis can be used for energy generation or other fuel use thereby offsetting fossil fuel consumption and so avoiding greenhouse gas emissions. Both biomass based energy systems differ in the amount of energy produced, in the co-product (biochar or wood ash) returned to the field, and in societal impacts they have. The Tool for Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA) was used for modelling both energy production systems. ToSIA integrates several different methods, and allows a quantification and objective comparison of economic, environmental and social impacts in a sustainability impact assessment for different decision alternatives/scenarios. We will interpret the results in order to support the bioenergy planning in temperate forests under the

  6. Combined Impacts of Medium Term Socio-Economic Changes and Climate Change on Water Resources in a Managed Mediterranean Catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anastassi Stefanova

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate projections agree on a dryer and warmer future for the Mediterranean. Consequently, the region is likely to face serious problems regarding water availability and quality in the future. We investigated potential climate change impacts, alone (for three scenario periods and in combination with four socio-economic scenarios (for the near future on water resources in a Mediterranean catchment, whose economy relies on irrigated agriculture and tourism. For that, the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM was applied to the drainage area of the Mar Menor coastal lagoon, using a set of 15 climate scenarios and different land use maps and management settings. We assessed the long-term average seasonal and annual changes in generated runoff, groundwater recharge and actual evapotranspiration in the catchment, as well as on water inflow and nutrients input to the lagoon. The projected average annual changes in precipitation are small for the first scenario period, and so are the simulated impacts on all investigated components, on average. The negative trend of potential climate change impacts on water resources (i.e., decrease in all analyzed components becomes pronounced in the second and third scenario periods. The applied socio-economic scenarios intensify, reduce or even reverse the climate-induced impacts, depending on the assumed land use and management changes.

  7. Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth throug...

  8. The impact of SciDAC on US climate change research and the IPCC AR4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wehner, Michael

    2005-01-01

    SciDAC has invested heavily in climate change research. We offer a candid opinion as to the impact of the DOE laboratories' SciDAC projects on the upcoming Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

  9. GIS based procedure of cumulative environmental impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balakrishna Reddy, M; Blah, Baiantimon

    2009-07-01

    Scale and spatial limits of impact assessment study in a GIS platform are two very important factors that could have a bearing on the genuineness and quality of impact assessment. While effect of scale has been documented and well understood, no significant study has been carried out on spatial considerations in an impact assessment study employing GIS technique. A novel technique of impact assessment demonstrable through GIS approach termed hereby as 'spatial data integrated GIS impact assessment method (SGIAM)' is narrated in this paper. The technique makes a fundamental presumption that the importance of environmental impacts is dependent, among other things, on spatial distribution of the effects of the proposed action and of the affected receptors in a study area. For each environmental component considered (e.g., air quality), impact indices are calculated through aggregation of impact indicators which are measures of the severity of the impact. The presence and spread of environmental descriptors are suitably quantified through modeling techniques and depicted. The environmental impact index is calculated from data exported from ArcINFO, thus giving significant importance to spatial data in the impact assessment exercise.

  10. An Agent-Based Assessment of Land Use and Ecosystem Changes in Traditional Agricultural Landscape of Portugal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Acosta, L.; Rounsevell, M.D.A.; Bakker, M.M.; Doorn, van A.M.; Gómez-Delgado, M.; Delgado, M.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an assessment of land use changes and their impacts on the ecosystem in the Montado, a traditional agricultural landscape of Portugal in response to global environmental change. The assessment uses an agent- based model (ABM) of the adaptive decisions of farmers to simulate the

  11. A Framework to Assess the Cumulative Hydrological Impacts of Dams on flow Regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Wang, D.

    2016-12-01

    In this study we proposed a framework to assess the cumulative impact of dams on hydrological regime, and the impacts of the Three Gorges Dam on flow regime in Yangtze River were investigated with the framework. We reconstructed the unregulated flow series to compare with the regulated flow series in the same period. Eco-surplus and eco-deficit and the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration parameters were used to examine the hydrological regime change. Among IHA parameters, Wilcoxon signed-rank test and Principal Components Analysis identified the representative indicators of hydrological alterations. Eco-surplus and eco-deficit showed that the reservoir also changed the seasonal regime of the flows in autumn and winter. Annual extreme flows and October flows changes lead to negative ecological implications downstream from the Three Gorges Dam. Ecological operation for the Three Gorges Dam is necessary to mitigate the negative effects on the river ecosystem in the middle reach of Yangtze River. The framework proposed here could be a robust method to assess the cumulative impacts of reservoir operation.

  12. Climate Change Potential Impacts on the Built Environment and Possible Adaptation Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.

    2014-01-01

    The built environment consists of components that exist at a range of scales from small (e.g., houses, shopping malls) to large (e.g., transportation networks) to highly modified landscapes such as cities. Thus, the impacts of climate change on the built environment may have a multitude of effects on humans and the land. The impact of climate change may be exacerbated by the interaction of different events that singly may be minor, but together may have a synergistic set of impacts that are significant. Also, mechanisms may exist wherein the built environment, particularly in the form of cities, may affect weather and the climate on local and regional scales. Hence, a city may be able to cope with prolonged heat waves, but if this is combined with severe drought, the overall result could be significant or even catastrophic, as accelerating demand for energy to cooling taxes water supplies needed both for energy supply and municipal water needs. This presentation surveys potential climate change impacts on the built environment from the perspective of the National Climate Assessment, and explores adaptation measures that can be employed to mitigate these impacts.

  13. Assessment of Projected Temperature Impacts from Climate Change on the U.S. Electric Power Sector Using the Integrated Planning Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    The energy sector is considered to be one of the most vulnerable to climate change. This study is a first-order analysis of the potential climate change impacts on the U.S. electric power sector, measuring the energy, environmental, and economic impacts of power system changes du...

  14. Vulnerability and adaptation to potential impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Omenda, T.O.; Kariuki, J.G.; Mbuthi, P.N.

    1998-01-01

    Climate in Kenya is controlled by the seasonal southward and northward movements of the Inter-Tropical Convergence zone (ITCZ).The effects of ITCZ produces two rainy seasons namely the 'long rains' in April/May and the 'short rains' in October/November. Following the build up of greenhouse gases such as carborn dioxide and methane in the earth's atmosphere, a variety of changes is expected in climatic conditions. The study analyses the sensivity of the lower Tana Basin to climate change while specific objectives include: to determine the effects of climate change on water supply in Tana River Basin; to assess the posible effect of climate change on the ground water resourse in the basin; to make some suggestions on possible adaptation measures that may be adopted to cope with the possible impacts of climate change for the Tana Basin

  15. Climate change and its gendered impacts on agriculture in Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trung, P.T

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Studies have shown that Vietnam is one of the countries that most affected by climate change because of its geographical and natural conditions together with its fast but massive and unplanned urbanization. There are many research and studies that have been conducted to assess the impacts of climate change on different sectors in Vietnam. Agriculture plays an important role in the country’s economy in terms of poverty reduction, food security, employment and export but projected to be heavily affected because of sea level rise, floods or droughts etc. A large proportion of Vietnam’s population, especially women, involves with agricultural works and production. So, this paper using a gender perspective will examine possible impacts that climate change has been causing to women and men differently in order to propose some solutions for the facing problems. Since the paper only utilizes available resources, it can serve as a concept note for further works in the future.

  16. Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: Improving explorations of the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duinker, Peter N.; Greig, Lorne A.

    2007-01-01

    Scenarios and scenario analysis have become popular approaches in organizational planning and participatory exercises in pursuit of sustainable development. However, they are little used, at least in any formal way, in environmental impact assessment (EIA). This is puzzling because EIA is a process specifically dedicated to exploring options for more-sustainable (i.e., less environmentally damaging) futures. In this paper, we review the state of the art associated with scenarios and scenario analysis, and describe two areas where scenario analysis could be particularly helpful in EIA: (a) in defining future developments for cumulative effects assessment; and (b) in considering the influence of contextual change - e.g. climate change - on impact forecasts for specific projects. We conclude by encouraging EIA practitioners to learn about the promise of scenario-based analysis and implement scenario-based methods so that EIA can become more effective in fostering sustainable development

  17. Accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty in impact assessments: The example of the BRACE study

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, B. C.

    2015-12-01

    Assessing climate change impacts often requires the use of multiple scenarios, types of models, and data sources, leading to a large number of potential sources of uncertainty. For example, a single study might require a choice of a forcing scenario, climate model, bias correction and/or downscaling method, societal development scenario, model (typically several) for quantifying elements of societal development such as economic and population growth, biophysical model (such as for crop yields or hydrology), and societal impact model (e.g. economic or health model). Some sources of uncertainty are reduced or eliminated by the framing of the question. For example, it may be useful to ask what an impact outcome would be conditional on a given societal development pathway, forcing scenario, or policy. However many sources of uncertainty remain, and it is rare for all or even most of these sources to be accounted for. I use the example of a recent integrated project on the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE) to explore useful approaches to uncertainty across multiple components of an impact assessment. BRACE comprises 23 papers that assess the differences in impacts between two alternative climate futures: those associated with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. It quantifies difference in impacts in terms of extreme events, health, agriculture, tropical cyclones, and sea level rise. Methodologically, it includes climate modeling, statistical analysis, integrated assessment modeling, and sector-specific impact modeling. It employs alternative scenarios of both radiative forcing and societal development, but generally uses a single climate model (CESM), partially accounting for climate uncertainty by drawing heavily on large initial condition ensembles. Strengths and weaknesses of the approach to uncertainty in BRACE are assessed. Options under consideration for improving the approach include the use of perturbed physics

  18. Health Impacts of Increased Physical Activity from Changes in Transportation Infrastructure: Quantitative Estimates for Three Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Recently, two quantitative tools have emerged for predicting the health impacts of projects that change population physical activity: the Health Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT) and Dynamic Modeling for Health Impact Assessment (DYNAMO-HIA). HEAT has been used to support health impact assessments of transportation infrastructure projects, but DYNAMO-HIA has not been previously employed for this purpose nor have the two tools been compared. To demonstrate the use of DYNAMO-HIA for supporting health impact assessments of transportation infrastructure projects, we employed the model in three communities (urban, suburban, and rural) in North Carolina. We also compared DYNAMO-HIA and HEAT predictions in the urban community. Using DYNAMO-HIA, we estimated benefit-cost ratios of 20.2 (95% C.I.: 8.7–30.6), 0.6 (0.3–0.9), and 4.7 (2.1–7.1) for the urban, suburban, and rural projects, respectively. For a 40-year time period, the HEAT predictions of deaths avoided by the urban infrastructure project were three times as high as DYNAMO-HIA's predictions due to HEAT's inability to account for changing population health characteristics over time. Quantitative health impact assessment coupled with economic valuation is a powerful tool for integrating health considerations into transportation decision-making. However, to avoid overestimating benefits, such quantitative HIAs should use dynamic, rather than static, approaches. PMID:26504832

  19. A paradigm shift toward a consistent modeling framework to assess climate impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, E.; Paltsev, S.; Sokolov, A. P.; Fant, C.; Chen, H.; Gao, X.; Schlosser, C. A.; Scott, J. R.; Dutkiewicz, S.; Ejaz, Q.; Couzo, E. A.; Prinn, R. G.; Haigh, M.

    2017-12-01

    Estimates of physical and economic impacts of future climate change are subject to substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches of assessing climate impacts by evaluating a damage function or by multi-model comparisons based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we focus here on integrating impacts into a self-consistent coupled human and Earth system modeling framework that includes modules that represent multiple physical impacts. In a sample application we show that this framework is capable of investigating the physical impacts of climate change and socio-economic stressors. The projected climate impacts vary dramatically across the globe in a set of scenarios with global mean warming ranging between 2.4°C and 3.6°C above pre-industrial by 2100. Unabated emissions lead to substantial sea level rise, acidification that impacts the base of the oceanic food chain, air pollution that exceeds health standards by tenfold, water stress that impacts an additional 1 to 2 billion people globally and agricultural productivity that decreases substantially in many parts of the world. We compare the outcomes from these forward-looking scenarios against the common goal described by the target-driven scenario of 2°C, which results in much smaller impacts. It is challenging for large internationally coordinated exercises to respond quickly to new policy targets. We propose that a paradigm shift toward a self-consistent modeling framework to assess climate impacts is needed to produce information relevant to evolving global climate policy and mitigation strategies in a timely way.

  20. Assessment of impacts of climate change on gender in the context of Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paudel, R.; Acharya, A.

    2016-12-01

    Climate change and its impact on gender in the context of Nepal has not been clearly understood due to lack of proper scientific research in terms of gender and climate change. Climate induced disasters such as droughts, floods, GLOFs, and landslides affect men and women differently. This study is conducted to analyze the scenario of gender equality, and impacts of climate change on gender in Nepal. This study also identifies gender based adaptation approaches through the use of observed climate data, and projected and modeled demographic data such as Adolescent Fertility Rate, Labor Force Participation Rate, and Maternal Mortality Ratio. The major tasks of this project include the calculation of Gender Inequality Index (GII), trend analysis and correlation between GII and temperature, that helps to evaluate the women vulnerability and identify the gender based adaptation interventions in Nepal. The required data on gender and temperature are obtained from World Bank and Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Nepal. GII is calculated for almost 26 years starting from the year 1990 by utilizing a tool "Calculating the Indices using Excel" provided through the UNDP. The Reproductive Health Index (RHI), Empowerment Index (EI), and Labor Market Index (LMI) that are required to determine GII are also calculated through the use of same tool. The trend analysis shows that GII follows a decreasing trend indicating higher gender equality. The correlation analysis shows the temperature positively correlated with RHI (r=0.64), EI Female (r=0.61), and EI Male (r=0.73). In case of LMI, temperature is positively correlated with female (r=0.14) and negatively correlated with male (r=-0.57). The analysis depicts negative correlation (r=-0.68) between climate change and GII. This research will provide some valuable insights in the research relating to gender and climate change that could help gender advocates and policymakers in developing further plans for women empowerment.

  1. Butterfly effect: understanding and mitigating the local consequences of climate change impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lorenz, Donna

    2007-01-01

    Full text: The Butterfly Effect is the notion that tiny differences in initial conditions are amplified in the evolution of a dynamic system and directly affect the eventual outcome. In 1963 mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz proposed that the flapping of a butterfly's wing would cause a disturbance that becomes exponentially amplified so as to eventually affect large-scale atmospheric motion. This was to illustrate the 'sensitive dependence on initial conditions'; sensitivity also true in affecting the extent of damages experienced as a result of climate change. In a climate change context, The Butterfly Effect suggests the local consequences of climate change impacts will depend on their interaction with the economic, environmental, institutional, technological and demographic attributes unique to a city or region. It is this mix of factors that will determine the extent, both positively and negatively, to which climate change will be experienced locally. For a truly effective climate change response, it is imperative that regional risk assessments and adaptation strategies take into account not only the projected impacts but the full range of flow-on implications of those impacts and their sensitivity factors. Understanding of the sensitivity factors that will amplify or mitigate climate change impacts and implications enables government and business leaders to calculate the likely extent of localised damages if no adaptation is undertaken. This allows industries and communities to evaluate the likely significance of a particular impact and to consider how to adjust or counter the sensitivity factor to build resilience and reduce vulnerability. Thus, it also assists in the local prioritisation of issues and responses. Such a strategic response can also mean the required adaptation measures may be less extensive and thereby require less cost and time to implement. This paper discusses the flow-on implications of Australia's projected climate change

  2. Social impact assessment in energy projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koivujaervi, S.; Kantola, I.; Maekinen, P.

    1998-01-01

    The research report is based on literature and interviews on the social impact assessment (SIA) in energy projects in Finland, both before and after the EIA Act has been in force in Finland. The concept and content of SIA, the requirements set by the legislation, its relation with other environmental impacts, the assessment process and the used methods have been studied on the basis of the literature analysis. A total of 26 persons representing the coordination authorities, persons issuing statements, researchers, civil servants, consultants and project developers were interviewed for the research. The interviews were made by the University of Turku in the form of theme interviews, investigating the present status, practices and expectations of the SIA. The unestablished status was seen to be the problem in the SIA, which was reflected in the interviewers' varying views about the content of the SIA. Among the operators, the general character of the SIA criticism in the statements concerning the assessment programmes or reports was seen as a problem as well; the assessment of social impact has been considered to be insufficient, however, without any identification of the effects or how the effects should have been assessed. For the time preceding the EIA Act, the assessment of the social impact of hydraulic work, power plant and transmission line projects and the project of the fifth nuclear power plant have been studied. As to the power plant and transmission line projects after the validity of the EIA Act, all the 20 projects were gone through which had progressed during the spring 1998 at least to the assessment report stage. Of these projects, the assessment of the social impact of one transmission line and one power plant project was studied in detail. The report also studies the assessment of the social impact of the repository for nuclear waste on the basis of the experience gained in Finland and in other countries. On the basis of the literature study

  3. Assessing the impacts of climate change on winter crop production in Uruguay and Argentina using crop simulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baethgen, W.E. [International Fertilizer Development Center, Muscle Shoals, AL (United States); Magrin, G.O. [Inst. Nacional de Tecnologia Agropecuaria Castelar, Buenos Aires (Argentina). Inst. de Clima y Agua

    1995-12-31

    Enhanced greenhouse effect caused by the increase in atmospheric concentration of CO{sub 2} and other trace gases could lead to higher global surface temperature and altered hydrological cycles. Most possible climate change scenarios include higher atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations, higher temperatures, and changes in precipitation. Three global climate models (GCMs) were applied to generate climate change scenarios for the Pampas region in southern South America. The generated scenarios were then used with crop simulation models to study the possible impact of climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) production in the Pampas. The authors evaluated the impact of possible climate change scenarios on wheat and barley production in Uruguay for a wide range of soil and crop management strategies including planting dates, cultivar types, fertilizer management, and tillage practices. They also studied the impact of climate change on wheat production across two transects of the Pampas: north to south transect with decreasing temperature, and east to west transect with decreasing precipitation. Finally, sensitivity analyses were conducted for both, the Uruguayan site and the transects, by increasing daily maximum and minimum temperature by 0, 2, and 4 C, and changing the precipitation by {minus}20, 0, and +20%.

  4. Modeling Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Using Projections of the 5th Assessment Report for the Bernam River Basin, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nkululeko Simeon Dlamini

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Potential impacts of climate change on the streamflow of the Bernam River Basin in Malaysia are assessed using ten Global Climate Models (GCMs under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. A graphical user interface was developed that integrates all of the common procedures of assessing climate change impacts, to generate high resolution climate variables (e.g., rainfall, temperature, etc. at the local scale from large-scale climate models. These are linked in one executable module to generate future climate sequences that can be used as inputs to various models, including hydrological and crop models. The generated outputs were used as inputs to the SWAT hydrological model to simulate the hydrological processes. The evaluation results indicated that the model performed well for the watershed with a monthly R2, Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE and Percent Bias (PBIAS values of 0.67, 0.62 and −9.4 and 0.62, 0.61 and −4.2 for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. The multi-model projections show an increase in future temperature (tmax and tmin in all respective scenarios, up to an average of 2.5 °C for under the worst-case scenario (RC8.5. Rainfall is also predicted to change with clear variations between the dry and wet season. Streamflow projections also followed rainfall pattern to a great extent with a distinct change between the dry and wet season possibly due to the increase in evapotranspiration in the watershed. In principle, the interface can be customized for the application to other watersheds by incorporating GCMs’ baseline data and their corresponding future data for those particular stations in the new watershed. Methodological limitations of the study are also discussed.

  5. Assessment of Climate Change Effects on Shahcheraghi Reservoir Inflow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. E. Banihabib

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Forecasting the inflow to the reservoir is important issues due to the limited water resources and the importance of optimal utilization of reservoirs to meet the need for drinking, industry and agriculture in future time periods. In the meantime, ignoring the effects of climate change on meteorological and hydrological parameters and water resources in long-term planning of water resources cause inaccuracy. It is essential to assess the impact of climate change on reservoir operation in arid regions. In this research, climate change impact on hydrological and meteorological variables of the Shahcheragh dam basin, in Semnan Province, was studied using an integrated model of climate change assessment. Materials and Methods: The case study area of this study was located in Damghan Township, Semnan Province, Iran. It is an arid zone. The case study area is a part of the Iran Central Desert. The basin is in 12 km north of the Damghan City and between 53° E to 54° 30’ E longitude and 36° N to 36° 30’ N latitude. The area of the basin is 1,373 km2 with average annual inflow around 17.9 MCM. Total actual evaporation and average annual rainfall are 1,986 mm and 137 mm, respectively. This case study is chosen to test proposed framework for assessment of climate change impact hydrological and meteorological variables of the basin. In the proposed model, LARS-WG and ANN sub-models (7 sub models with a combination of different inputs such as temperature, precipitation and also solar radiation were used for downscaling daily outputs of CGCM3 model under 3 emission scenarios, A2, B1 and A1B and reservoir inflow simulation, respectively. LARS-WG was tested in 99% confidence level before using it as downscaling model and feed-forward neural network was used as raifall-runoff model. Moreover, the base period data (BPD, 1990-2008, were used for calibration. Finally, reservoir inflow was simulated for future period data (FPD of 2015-2044 and

  6. The impact of organisational change and fiscal restraint on organisational culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dark, Frances; Whiteford, Harvey; Ashkanasy, Neal M; Harvey, Carol; Harris, Meredith; Crompton, David; Newman, Ellie

    2017-01-01

    Strategies to implement evidence-based practice have highlighted the bidirectional relationship of organisational change on organisational culture. The present study examined changes in perceptions of organisational culture in two community mental health services implementing cognitive therapies into routine psychosis care over 3 years. During the time of the study there were a number of shared planned and unplanned changes that the mental health services had to accommodate. One service, Metro South, had the additional challenge of embarking on a major organisational restructure. A survey of organisational culture was administered to clinical staff of each service at yearly intervals over the 3 years. At baseline assessment there was no significant difference between the two services in organisational culture. At the midpoint assessment, which was conducted at the time the Metro South restructure was operationalized, there were less positive ratings of organisational culture recorded in Metro South compared to the other service. Organisational culture returned to near-baseline levels at endpoint assessment. These findings are consistent with the literature that organisational culture is relatively robust and resilient. It is also consistent with the literature that, at any one time, a service or organisation may have a finite capacity to absorb change. Consequently this limitation needs to be taken into account in the timing and planning of major service reform where possible. The results also extend the literature, insofar as external factors with a high impact on the operation of an organisation may impact upon organisational culture albeit temporarily.

  7. Total Environment of Change: Impacts of Climate Change and Social Transitions on Subsistence Fisheries in Northwest Alaska

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katie J. Moerlein

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Arctic ecosystems are undergoing rapid changes as a result of global climate change, with significant implications for the livelihoods of Arctic peoples. In this paper, based on ethnographic research conducted with the Iñupiaq communities of Noatak and Selawik in northwestern Alaska, we detail prominent environmental changes observed over the past twenty to thirty years and their impacts on subsistence-based lifestyles. However, we suggest that it is ultimately insufficient to try to understand how Arctic communities are experiencing and responding to climate change in isolation from other stressors. During interviews and participant observation documenting local observations of climatic and related environmental shifts and impacts to subsistence fishing practices, we find the inseparability of environmental, social, economic, cultural, and political realms for community residents. Many of our informants, who live in a mixed economy based on various forms of income and widespread subsistence harvesting of fish and game, perceive and experience climate change as embedded among numerous other factors affecting subsistence patterns and practices. Changing lifestyles, decreasing interest by younger generations in pursuing subsistence livelihoods, and economic challenges are greatly affecting contemporary subsistence patterns and practices in rural Alaska. Observations of climate change are perceived, experienced, and articulated to researchers through a broader lens of these linked lifestyle and cultural shifts. Therefore, we argue that to properly assess and understand the impacts of climate change on the subsistence practices in Arctic communities, we must also consider the total environment of change that is dramatically shaping the relationship between people, communities, and their surrounding environments.

  8. Compounding Impacts of Human-Induced Water Stress and Climate Change on Water Availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehran, Ali; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; Stewardson, Michael J.; Peel, Murray C.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Wada, Yoshihide; Ravalico, Jakin K.

    2017-01-01

    The terrestrial phase of the water cycle can be seriously impacted by water management and human water use behavior (e.g., reservoir operation, and irrigation withdrawals). Here we outline a method for assessing water availability in a changing climate, while explicitly considering anthropogenic water demand scenarios and water supply infrastructure designed to cope with climatic extremes. The framework brings a top-down and bottom-up approach to provide localized water assessment based on local water supply infrastructure and projected water demands. When our framework is applied to southeastern Australia we find that, for some combinations of climatic change and water demand, the region could experience water stress similar or worse than the epic Millennium Drought. We show considering only the influence of future climate on water supply, and neglecting future changes in water demand and water storage augmentation might lead to opposing perspectives on future water availability. While human water use can significantly exacerbate climate change impacts on water availability, if managed well, it allows societies to react and adapt to a changing climate. The methodology we present offers a unique avenue for linking climatic and hydrologic processes to water resource supply and demand management and other human interactions.

  9. Vulnerability of Australian agriculture to climate change: sequencing impacts over IPCC trajectories for adaptation planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mallawaarachchi, Thilak; Hodges, Andrew; Wicks, Santhi; Kokic, Phil; Nelson, Rohan

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: Agricultural systems are susceptible to adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. While the degree of vulnerability is a function of the magnitude and the rate of variation in climate exposure, agricultural systems with a stronger adaptive capacity are likely to be less vulnerable to climate change. In preparing the agriculture sector for ongoing climate change, adaptation planning to moderate potential impacts and to take advantage of opportunities, has emerged as an effective strategic response. Global climate change scenarios developed by the IPCC indicate that changes in climate may alter the production potential of agriculture across many regions. Wide regional variability in productivity, extensive land use and the dominance in rural economies across Australia could expose agriculture to considerable risks from climate change impacts. In many cases these risks could cascade across a range of sectors and vary overtime, reflecting the capacity of exposed enterprises to adapt to a changing climate by taking advantage of opportunities. Effective planning of adaptation responses will require integrated assessments of regional vulnerability to climate risks over IPCC projection trajectories. In this paper, we present a method for estimating and mapping vulnerability to climate risks at the regional level, and apply this method to examine the vulnerability of Australian agriculture to climate change, focusing on case studies drawn from dryland broadacre and irrigated horticulture industries. In developing a conceptual framework for assessing vulnerability and adaptation options, the paper provides a review of key approaches used globally for the assessment of vulnerability to climate change in agriculture. It presents an approach to link global climate change scenario-based projections for assessing economic impacts on industries and regions through a process that maps climate risks to factors contributing

  10. Modelling Impacts of Climate Change: Case Studies using the New Generation of Erosion Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change is expected to impact upon a number of soil erosion drivers and processes, which should be taken into account when designing a modelling strategy. The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) (Parry et al., 2007; Solomon et al., 2007) reviews a...

  11. The challenges of risk society for impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2017-01-01

    , the challenge of delivering assessments and predictions and the challenge of handling differences of opinion and debate. Through a case example of integration of climate change in strategic environmental assessment, the paper uses empirical evidence from a survey and a series of interviews to carry out......This paper takes its point of departure in Ulrich Beck’s theory of risk society and the aspects that characterise this society. The paper puts forward a hypothe- sis, on which theoretical challenges the characteristics of risk society pose to impact assessment as a decision support tool; namely...... a preliminary discussion of how the theoretical challenges are reflected in practice. The case study results show that the challenge of delivering assessments and predictions in a risk society is reflected in the current state of practice, while the challenge of handling differences of opinion and debate...

  12. A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan A Hare

    Full Text Available Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region. These

  13. A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hare, Jonathan A.; Morrison, Wendy E.; Nelson, Mark W.; Stachura, Megan M.; Teeters, Eric J.; Griffis, Roger B.; Alexander, Michael A.; Scott, James D.; Alade, Larry; Bell, Richard J.; Chute, Antonie S.; Curti, Kiersten L.; Curtis, Tobey H.; Kircheis, Daniel; Kocik, John F.; Lucey, Sean M.; McCandless, Camilla T.; Milke, Lisa M.; Richardson, David E.; Robillard, Eric; Walsh, Harvey J.; McManus, M. Conor; Marancik, Katrin E.; Griswold, Carolyn A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability) and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region). These results will inform

  14. Assessing the impact of land use/land cover and climate changes on water stress in the derived savanna

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Amidu, A

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the impact of land use/land cover (LULC) and climate patterns on basin runoff is necessary in assessing basin water stress. This assessment requires long-term observed rainfall time series and LULC spatial data. In order to assess...

  15. Assessing the state-level consequences of global warming: Socio-economic and energy demand impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rubin, B.M. Gailmard, S.; Marsh, D.; Septoff, A.

    1996-01-01

    The large body of research on climate change has begun to recognize a significant deficiency: the lack of analysis of the impact of climate change at a spatial level consistent with the anticipated occurrence of climate change. Climate change is likely to vary by region, while impact analysis has focused on much larger political units. Clearly, adaptation/mitigation strategies must be developed at a level consistent with political and policy-making processes. This paper specifically addresses this deficiency by identifying the potential socio-economic and energy demand consequences of climate change for subnational regions. This is accomplished via the development and application of a regional simultaneous equation, econometric simulation model that focuses on five states (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin) in the Great Lakes region of the US. This paper presents a process for obtaining state-specific assessments of the consequences of climate change for the socio-economic system. As such, it provides an indication of which economic sectors are most sensitive to climate change for a specific state (Indiana), a set of initial mitigation/adaptation strategies for this state, and the results of testing these strategies in the policy analysis framework enabled by the model. In addition, the research demonstrates an effective methodology for assessing impacts and policy implications of climate change at a level consistent with policy making authority

  16. Spatial and Temporal Responses of Soil Erosion to Climate Change Impacts in a Transnational Watershed in Southeast Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Pham Quy Giang; Le Thi Giang; Kosuke Toshiki

    2017-01-01

    It has been widely predicted that Southeast Asia is among the regions facing the most severe climate change impacts. Despite this forecast, little research has been published on the potential impacts of climate change on soil erosion in this region. This study focused on the impact of climate change on spatial and temporal patterns of soil erosion in the Laos–Vietnam transnational Upper Ca River Watershed. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) coupled with downscaled global climate models...

  17. A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet

    2013-04-01

    Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change

  18. Spatial Analysis of Environmental Change Impacts on Wheat Production in Mid-Lower North, South Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo, Q.; Williams, M. [Department of Geographical and Environmental Studies, University of Adelaide, South Australia, 5005 (Australia); Bryan, BV. [Policy and Economic Research Unit, CSIRO Land and Water, Private Bag 2, Glen Osmond, South Australia, 5064 (Australia); Bellotti, W. [School of Agriculture and Wine, University of Adelaide, South Australia, 5371 (Australia)

    2005-09-01

    Three environmental change scenarios (the best scenario, the most likely scenario and the worst scenario) were used by the APSIM (Agricultural Production System sIMulator) Wheat module to study the possible impacts of future environmental change (climate change plus pCO2 change) on wheat production in the Mid-Lower North of South Australia. GIS software was used to manage spatial-climate data and spatial-soil data and to present the results. Study results show that grain yield (kg ha{sup -1}) was adversely affected under the worst environmental change scenario (-100% {approx} -42%) and the most likely environmental change scenario (-58% {approx} -3%). Grain nitrogen content (% N) either increased or decreased depending on the environmental change scenarios used and climate divisions (-25% {approx} +42%). Spatial variability was found for projected impact outcomes within climate divisions indicating the necessity of including the spatial distribution of soil properties in impact assessment.

  19. Assessing framing assumptions in quantitative health impact assessments: a housing intervention example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mesa-Frias, Marco; Chalabi, Zaid; Foss, Anna M

    2013-09-01

    Health impact assessment (HIA) is often used to determine ex ante the health impact of an environmental policy or an environmental intervention. Underpinning any HIA is the framing assumption, which defines the causal pathways mapping environmental exposures to health outcomes. The sensitivity of the HIA to the framing assumptions is often ignored. A novel method based on fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) is developed to quantify the framing assumptions in the assessment stage of a HIA, and is then applied to a housing intervention (tightening insulation) as a case-study. Framing assumptions of the case-study were identified through a literature search of Ovid Medline (1948-2011). The FCM approach was used to identify the key variables that have the most influence in a HIA. Changes in air-tightness, ventilation, indoor air quality and mould/humidity have been identified as having the most influence on health. The FCM approach is widely applicable and can be used to inform the formulation of the framing assumptions in any quantitative HIA of environmental interventions. We argue that it is necessary to explore and quantify framing assumptions prior to conducting a detailed quantitative HIA during the assessment stage. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Integrated impact assessment of climate change, land use, and adaptation policies on water quality in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trautvetter, Helen; Schoenhart, Martin; Parajaka, Juraj; Schmid, Erwin; Zessner, Matthias

    2017-04-01

    Climate change is one of the major challenges of our time and adds considerable stress to the human society and environment. A change in climate will not only shift general weather patterns, but might also increase the recurrence of extreme weather events such as drought and heavy rainfall. These changes in climatic conditions will affect the quality and quantity of water resources both directly as well as indirectly through autonomous adaptation by farmers (e.g. cultivar choices, fertilization intensity or soil management). This will influence the compliance with the good ecological and chemical status according to the EU Water Framework Directive. We present results from an integrated impact modelling framework (IIMF) to tackle those direct and indirect impacts and analyze policy options for planned adaptation in agricultural land use and sustainable management of land and water resources until 2040. The IIMF is the result of an interdisciplinary collaboration among economists, agronomists, and hydrologists. It consists of the bio-physical process model EPIC, the regional land use optimization model PASMA[grid], the quantitative precipitation/runoff TUWmodel and the surface water emission model MONERIS. Scenarios have been developed and parameterized in collaboration with stakeholders in order to facilitate multi-actor knowledge transfer. The set of climate change scenarios until 2040 includes three scenarios with equal temperature changes but varying precipitation patterns. They are combined with potential socio-economic and policy development. The latter include water protection measures on fertilization management, soil management, or crop rotation choices. We will presented the development of interfaces among the research, the definition of scenarios and major scenario results for Austria. We will focus on nutrient emissions to surface waters, which are the major link between the different models. The results, available at watershed level indicate the

  1. Encouraging translation and assessing impact of the Centre for Research Excellence in Integrated Quality Improvement: rationale and protocol for a research impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramanathan, Shanthi; Reeves, Penny; Deeming, Simon; Bailie, Ross Stewart; Bailie, Jodie; Bainbridge, Roxanne; Cunningham, Frances; Doran, Christopher; McPhail Bell, Karen; Searles, Andrew

    2017-12-04

    There is growing recognition among health researchers and funders that the wider benefits of research such as economic, social and health impacts ought to be assessed and valued alongside academic outputs such as peer-reviewed papers. Research translation needs to increase and the pathways to impact ought to be more transparent. These processes are particularly pertinent to the Indigenous health sector given continued concerns that Indigenous communities are over-researched with little corresponding improvement in health outcomes. This paper describes the research protocol of a mixed methods study to apply FAIT (Framework to Assess the Impact from Translational health research) to the Centre for Research Excellence in Integrated Quality Improvement (CRE-IQI). FAIT will be applied to five selected CRE-IQI Flagship projects to encourage research translation and assess the wider impact of that research. Phase I will develop a modified programme logic model for each Flagship project including identifying process, output and impact metrics so progress can be monitored. A scoping review will inform potential benefits. In phase II, programme logic models will be updated to account for changes in the research pathways over time. Audit and feedback will be used to encourage research translation and collect evidence of achievement of any process, output and interim impacts. In phase III, three proven methodologies for measuring research impact-Payback, economic assessment and narratives-will be applied. Data on the application of FAIT will be collected and analysed to inform and improve FAIT's performance. This study is funded by a nationally competitive grant (ID 1078927) from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. Ethics approval was obtained from the University of Newcastle's Human Research Ethics Committee (ID: H-2017-0026). The results from the study will be presented in several peer-reviewed publications, through conference presentations and via

  2. Impact of workplace based assessment on doctors' education and performance: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Alice; Archer, Julian

    2010-09-24

    To investigate the literature for evidence that workplace based assessment affects doctors' education and performance. Systematic review. The primary data sources were the databases Journals@Ovid, Medline, Embase, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and ERIC. Evidence based reviews (Bandolier, Cochrane Library, DARE, HTA Database, and NHS EED) were accessed and searched via the Health Information Resources website. Reference lists of relevant studies and bibliographies of review articles were also searched. Review methods Studies of any design that attempted to evaluate either the educational impact of workplace based assessment, or the effect of workplace based assessment on doctors' performance, were included. Studies were excluded if the sampled population was non-medical or the study was performed with medical students. Review articles, commentaries, and letters were also excluded. The final exclusion criterion was the use of simulated patients or models rather than real life clinical encounters. Sixteen studies were included. Fifteen of these were non-comparative descriptive or observational studies; the other was a randomised controlled trial. Study quality was mixed. Eight studies examined multisource feedback with mixed results; most doctors felt that multisource feedback had educational value, although the evidence for practice change was conflicting. Some junior doctors and surgeons displayed little willingness to change in response to multisource feedback, whereas family physicians might be more prepared to initiate change. Performance changes were more likely to occur when feedback was credible and accurate or when coaching was provided to help subjects identify their strengths and weaknesses. Four studies examined the mini-clinical evaluation exercise, one looked at direct observation of procedural skills, and three were concerned with multiple assessment methods: all these studies reported positive results for the educational impact of workplace based assessment tools

  3. Climate change and indigenous peoples: A synthesis of current impacts and experiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norton-Smith, Kathryn; Lynn, Kathy; Chief, Karletta; Cozetto, Karen; Donatuto, Jamie; Hiza, Margaret; Kruger, Linda; Maldonado, Julie; Viles, Carson; Whyte, Kyle P.

    2016-01-01

    A growing body of literature examines the vulnerability, risk, resilience, and adaptation of indigenous peoples to climate change. This synthesis of literature brings together research pertaining to the impacts of climate change on sovereignty, culture, health, and economies that are currently being experienced by Alaska Native and American Indian tribes and other indigenous communities in the United States. The knowledge and science of how climate change impacts are affecting indigenous peoples contributes to the development of policies, plans, and programs for adapting to climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This report defines and describes the key frameworks that inform indigenous understandings of climate change impacts and pathways for adaptation and mitigation, namely, tribal sovereignty and self-determination, culture and cultural identity, and indigenous community health indicators. It also provides a comprehensive synthesis of climate knowledge, science, and strategies that indigenous communities are exploring, as well as an understanding of the gaps in research on these issues. This literature synthesis is intended to make a contribution to future efforts such as the 4th National Climate Assessment, while serving as a resource for future research, tribal and agency climate initiatives, and policy development.

  4. Rainfall-runoff modelling of the Okavango River catchment to assess impacts of land use change on runoff and downstream ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milzow, Christian; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

    2010-05-01

    The competition between human water use and ecosystem water use is one of the major challenges for water resources management at the global scale. We analyse the situation for the Okavango River basin of southern Africa. The Okavango River is representative for many large rivers throughout the developing world in that it is ungauged and poorly studied. The Okavango basin - spanning over Angola, Namibia and Botswana - represents a multi-objective problem in an international setting. Economic benefits of agricultural development and conservation of ecosystem services call for opposed actions. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model of the Okavango catchment is set up using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model is sufficiently physically based to simulate the impact on runoff of extent of agricultural use, crop types and management practices. Precipitation and temperature inputs are taken from datasets covering large parts of the globe. The methodology can thus easily be applied for other ungauged catchments. For temperature we use the ERA-Interim reanalysis product of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and for precipitation the Famine Early Warning Systems Network data (FEWS-Net). Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) data resulted in poor model performance compared to the FEWS-Net data. Presently, the upstream catchment in Angola is largely pristine and agriculture is basically restricted to dry land subsistence farming. But economic growth in Angola is likely to result in agricultural development and consequent impacts on catchment runoff. Land use scenarios that are simulated include large scale irrigated agriculture with water extractions from the river and the shallow aquifer. Climate change impacts are also studied and compared to land use change impacts. The downstream part of the basin consists of the large Okavango Wetlands, which are a biodiversity hotspot of global importance and, through tourism, an important

  5. Possible impact of climate change on meningitis in northwest Nigeria: an assessment using CMIP5 climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdussalam, Auwal; Monaghan, Andrew; Steinhoff, Daniel; Dukic, Vanja; Hayden, Mary; Hopson, Thomas; Thornes, John; Leckebusch, Gregor

    2014-05-01

    Meningitis remains a major health burden throughout Sahelian Africa, especially in heavily-populated northwest Nigeria. Cases exhibit strong sensitivity to intra- and inter-annual climate variability, peaking during the hot and dry boreal spring months, raising concern that future climate change may increase the incidence of meningitis in the region. The impact of future climate change on meningitis risk in northwest Nigeria is assessed by forcing an empirical model of meningitis with monthly simulations from an ensemble of thirteen statistically downscaled global climate model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Experiment Phase 5 (CMIP5) for RCPs 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios. The results suggest future temperature increases due to climate change has the potential to significantly increase meningitis cases in both the early and late 21st century, and to increase the length of the meningitis season in the late century. March cases may increase from 23 per 100,000 people for present day (1990-2005), to 29-30 per 100,000 (p<0.01) in the early century (2020-2035) and 31-42 per 100,000 (p<0.01) in the late century (2060-2075), the range being dependent on the emissions scenario. It is noteworthy that these results represent the climatological potential for increased cases due to climate change, as we assume current prevention and treatment strategies remain similar in the future.

  6. Wind power: Addressing wildlife impacts, assessing effects on tourism, and examining the link between climate change perceptions and support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lilley, Meredith Blaydes

    As the world's most rapidly growing source of energy, wind power has vast potential for mitigating climate change and advancing global environmental sustainability. Yet, the challenges facing wind energy remain both complex and substantial. Two such challenges are: 1) wildlife impacts; and 2) perceived negative effects on tourism. This dissertation examines these challenges in a multi-paper format, and also investigates the role that climate change perceptions play in garnering public support for wind power. The first paper assesses optimal approaches for addressing wind power's wildlife impacts. Comparative analysis reveals that avian mortality from turbines ranks far behind avian mortality from a number of other anthropogenic sources. Additionally, although bats have recently emerged as more vulnerable to wind turbines than birds, they are generally less federally protected. The Migratory Bird Treaty Act (MBTA) protects over 800 bird species, regardless of their threatened or endangered status. Moreover, it criminalizes the incidental take of birds without a permit and simultaneously grants no permits for such incidental take, thereby creating a legal conundrum for the wind industry. An examination of the legislative and case history of the MBTA, however, reveals that wind operators are not likely to be prosecuted for incidental take if they cooperate with the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service (FWS) and take reasonable steps to reduce siting and operational impacts. Furthermore, this study's analysis reveals modest wildlife impacts from wind power, in comparison with numerous other energy sources. Scientific-research, legal, and policy recommendations are provided to update the present legal and regulatory regime under the MBTA and to minimize avian and bat impacts. For instance, FWS should: establish comprehensive federal guidelines for wind facility siting, permitting, monitoring, and mitigation; and promulgate regulations under the MBTA for the issuance of

  7. Qualitative Assessment: Evaluating the Impacts of Climate ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The South Fork Nooksack River (South Fork) is located in northwest Washington State and is home to nine species of Pacific salmon, including Nooksack early Chinook (aka, spring Chinook salmon), an iconic species for the Nooksack Indian Tribe. The quantity of salmon in the South Fork, especially spring Chinook salmon, has dramatically declined from historic levels, due primarily to habitat degradation from the legacy impacts of various land uses such as commercial forestry, agriculture, flood control, and transportation infrastructure. Segments of the South Fork and some of its tributaries exceed temperature criteria established for the protection of cold-water salmonid populations, and were listed on Washington State’s Clean Water Act (CWA) 303(d) list of impaired waterbodies. High water temperatures in the South Fork are detrimental to fish and other native species that depend on cool, clean, well-oxygenated water. Of the nine salmon species, three have been listed as threatened under the federal Endangered Species Act (ESA) and are of high priority to restoration efforts in the South Fork—spring Chinook salmon, summer steelhead trout, and bull trout. Growing evidence shows that climate change will exacerbate legacy impacts. This qualitative assessment is a comprehensive analysis of climate change impacts on freshwater habitat and Pacific salmon in the South Fork. It also evaluates the effectiveness of restoration tools that address Pacific salmon recovery.

  8. Estimating Non-Market Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rothman, D.S.; Amelung, B.; Polome, P.

    2003-01-01

    single individual or group and their use by one person does not reduce their use by others. This makes their valuation even more problematic. Most studies agree that non-market impacts make up a significant, if not the dominant, share of the potential impacts of climate change. In the IPCC's Second Assessment Report it is noted that non-market costs accounted for between 30-80% of the total in existing estimates of the costs of climate change. In a review of more recent estimates, several of the same authors state that whereas market impacts may be lower than initially thought, non-market impacts may be more pronounced. Still, there remain a number of questions about how properly to account for nonmarket impacts. In this paper we will not reiterate or provide new estimates of the value of non-market impacts and the potential benefits from climate policies. Rather, we will focus on a number of issues that we see in the existing studies as presenting the potential for confusion in understanding these impacts and benefits. The need to account for non-market impacts is fundamental to a number of these concerns. The specific issues to be addressed are the context in which climate impacts and policy options have been considered, the definition and classification of impacts, the question of value paradigms, and the limitations of economic valuation techniques. The principle argument we wish to make is that we need to pose our research questions more carefully and be more clear and consistent in order for the results to be considered credible, transparent, and relevant for policy

  9. Application of fisheries management techniques to assessing impacts: task I report. [Assessment of chemical, radiological, and thermal impacts of nuclear power plants on fish populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McKenzie, D.H.; Baker, K.S.; Fickeisen, D.H.; Metzger, R.M.; Skalski, J.R.

    1979-03-01

    Task I efforts examined the available fisheries management techniques and assessed their potential application in a confirmatory monitoring program. The objective of such monitoring programs is to confirm that the prediction of an insignificant impact (usually made in the FES) was correct. Fisheries resource managers have developed several tools for assessing the fish population response to stress (exploitation) and they were thought potentially useful for detecting nuclear power plant impacts. Techniques in three categories were examined; catch removal, population dynamics, and nondestructive censuses, and the report contains their description, examples of application, advantages, and disadvantages. The techniques applied at nuclear power plant sites were examined in detail to provide information on implementation and variability of specific approaches. The most suitable techniques to incorporate into a monitoring program confirming no impact appear to be those based on Catch Per Unity Effort (CPUE) and hydroacoustic data. In some specific cases, age and growth studies and indirect census techniques may be beneficial. Recommendations for task II efforts to incorporate these techniques into monitoring program designs are presented. These include development of guidelines for; (1) designing and implementing a data collection program; (2) interpreting these data and assessing the occurrence of impact, and (3) establishment of the monitoring program's ability to detect changes in the affected populations.

  10. Adapting to the Changing Climate: An Assessment of Local Health Department Preparations for Climate Change-Related Health Threats, 2008-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roser-Renouf, Connie; Maibach, Edward W; Li, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    Climate change poses a major public health threat. A survey of U.S. local health department directors in 2008 found widespread recognition of the threat, but limited adaptive capacity, due to perceived lack of expertise and other resources. We assessed changes between 2008 and 2012 in local public health departments' preparedness for the public health threats of climate change, in light of increasing national polarization on the issue, and widespread funding cutbacks for public health. A geographically representative online survey of directors of local public health departments was conducted in 2011-2012 (N = 174; response rate = 50%), and compared to the 2008 telephone survey results (N = 133; response rate = 61%). Significant polarization had occurred: more respondents in 2012 were certain that the threat of local climate change impacts does/does not exist, and fewer were unsure. Roughly 10% said it is not a threat, compared to 1% in 2008. Adaptation capacity decreased in several areas: perceived departmental expertise in climate change risk assessment; departmental prioritization of adaptation; and the number of adaptation-related programs and services departments provided. In 2008, directors' perceptions of local impacts predicted the number of adaptation-related programs and services their departments offered, but in 2012, funding predicted programming and directors' impact perceptions did not. This suggests that budgets were constraining directors' ability to respond to local climate change-related health threats. Results also suggest that departmental expertise may mitigate funding constraints. Strategies for overcoming these obstacles to local public health departments' preparations for climate change are discussed.

  11. Eco-hydrologic model cascades: Simulating land use and climate change impacts on hydrology, hydraulics and habitats for fish and macroinvertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guse, Björn; Kail, Jochem; Radinger, Johannes; Schröder, Maria; Kiesel, Jens; Hering, Daniel; Wolter, Christian; Fohrer, Nicola

    2015-11-15

    Climate and land use changes affect the hydro- and biosphere at different spatial scales. These changes alter hydrological processes at the catchment scale, which impact hydrodynamics and habitat conditions for biota at the river reach scale. In order to investigate the impact of large-scale changes on biota, a cascade of models at different scales is required. Using scenario simulations, the impact of climate and land use change can be compared along the model cascade. Such a cascade of consecutively coupled models was applied in this study. Discharge and water quality are predicted with a hydrological model at the catchment scale. The hydraulic flow conditions are predicted by hydrodynamic models. The habitat suitability under these hydraulic and water quality conditions is assessed based on habitat models for fish and macroinvertebrates. This modelling cascade was applied to predict and compare the impacts of climate- and land use changes at different scales to finally assess their effects on fish and macroinvertebrates. Model simulations revealed that magnitude and direction of change differed along the modelling cascade. Whilst the hydrological model predicted a relevant decrease of discharge due to climate change, the hydraulic conditions changed less. Generally, the habitat suitability for fish decreased but this was strongly species-specific and suitability even increased for some species. In contrast to climate change, the effect of land use change on discharge was negligible. However, land use change had a stronger impact on the modelled nitrate concentrations affecting the abundances of macroinvertebrates. The scenario simulations for the two organism groups illustrated that direction and intensity of changes in habitat suitability are highly species-dependent. Thus, a joined model analysis of different organism groups combined with the results of hydrological and hydrodynamic models is recommended to assess the impact of climate and land use changes on

  12. Impact assessment of land use planning driving forces on environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Longgao, E-mail: chenlonggao@163.com [Institute of Land Resources, Jiangsu Normal University (JSNU), Xuzhou 221116 (China); Yang, Xiaoyan [Institute of Land Resources, Jiangsu Normal University (JSNU), Xuzhou 221116 (China); School of Environment and Spatial Informatics, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116 (China); Chen, Longqian [School of Environment and Spatial Informatics, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116 (China); Li, Long [Department of Geography, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels 1050 (Belgium)

    2015-11-15

    Land use change may exert a negative impact on environmental quality. A state–impact–state (SIS) model describing a state transform under certain impacts has been integrated into land use planning (LUP) environmental impact assessment (LUPEA). This logical model is intuitive and easy to understand, but the exploration of impact is essential to establish the indicator system and to identify the scope of land use environmental impact when it is applied to a specific region. In this study, we investigated environmental driving forces from land use planning (LUPF), along with the conception, components, scope, and impact of LUPF. This method was illustrated by a case study in Zoucheng, China. Through the results, we concluded that (1) the LUPF on environment are impacts originated from the implementation of LUP on a regional environment, which are characterized by four aspects: magnitude, direction, action point, and its owner; (2) various scopes of LUPF on individual environmental elements based on different standards jointly define the final scope of LUPEA; (3) our case study in Zoucheng demonstrates the practicability of this proposed approach; (4) this method can be embedded into LUPEA with direction, magnitudes, and scopes of the LUPF on individual elements obtained, and the identified indicator system can be directly employed into LUPEA and (5) the assessment helps to identify key indicators and to set up a corresponding strategy to mitigate the negative impact of LUP on the environment, which are two important objectives of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) in LUP. - Highlights: • Environmental driving forces from land use planning (LUPF) are investigated and categorized. • Our method can obtains the direction, magnitudes and scopes of environmental driving forces. • The LUPEA scope is determined by the combination of various scopes of LUPF on individual elements. • LUPF assessment can be embedded into LUPEA. • The method can help to

  13. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

    2017-04-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

  14. Ecosystem service provision in a changing Europe: adapting to the impacts of combined climate and socio-economic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunford, Robert W; Smith, Alison C; Harrison, Paula A; Hanganu, Diana

    Future patterns of European ecosystem services provision are likely to vary significantly as a result of climatic and socio-economic change and the implementation of adaptation strategies. However, there is little research in mapping future ecosystem services and no integrated assessment approach to map the combined impacts of these drivers. Map changing patterns in ecosystem services for different European futures and (a) identify the role of driving forces; (b) explore the potential influence of different adaptation options. The CLIMSAVE integrated assessment platform is used to map spatial patterns in services (food, water and timber provision, atmospheric regulation, biodiversity existence/bequest, landscape experience and land use diversity) for a number of combined climatic and socio-economic scenarios. Eight adaptation strategies are explored within each scenario. Future service provision (particularly water provision) will be significantly impacted by climate change. Socio-economic changes shift patterns of service provision: more dystopian societies focus on food provision at the expense of other services. Adaptation options offer significant opportunities, but may necessitate trade-offs between services, particularly between agriculture- and forestry-related services. Unavoidable trade-offs between regions (particularly South-North) are also identified in some scenarios. Coordinating adaptation across regions and sectors will be essential to ensure that all needs are met: a factor that will become increasingly pressing under dystopian futures where inter-regional cooperation breaks down. Integrated assessment enables exploration of interactions and trade-offs between ecosystem services, highlighting the importance of taking account of complex cross-sectoral interactions under different future scenarios of planning adaptation responses.

  15. An assessment of the impact of climate change on the financial performance of South African companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Moyo

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available South African companies face uncertainty about whether they should commit resources to mitigate vulnerabilities and exploit opportunities arising from climate change. There is ambiguity over whether responding to climate change materially affects the financial sustainability of South African companies. The study sought to establish the extent to which responding to climate change impacts financial performance. Secondary analysis of historic data was used to compare the climate-change performance of 70 Johannesburg Stock Exchange listed companies to indicators of their financial performance. The research concluded that there is a positive and statistically significant correlation between climate-change performance and financial performance.

  16. Identifying the World's Most Climate Change Vulnerable Species: A Systematic Trait-Based Assessment of all Birds, Amphibians and Corals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foden, Wendy B.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Stuart, Simon N.; Vié, Jean-Christophe; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Angulo, Ariadne; DeVantier, Lyndon M.; Gutsche, Alexander; Turak, Emre; Cao, Long; Donner, Simon D.; Katariya, Vineet; Bernard, Rodolphe; Holland, Robert A.; Hughes, Adrian F.; O’Hanlon, Susannah E.; Garnett, Stephen T.; Şekercioğlu, Çagan H.; Mace, Georgina M.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species’ biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world’s birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608–851 bird (6–9%), 670–933 amphibian (11–15%), and 47–73 coral species (6–9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability

  17. Impacts of climate change in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bresser, A.H.M.; Berk, M.M.; Van den Born, G.J.; Van Bree, L.; Van Gaalen, F.W.; Ligtvoet, W.; Van Minnen, J.G.; Witmer, M.C.H.

    2005-10-01

    The main conclusion of the study on the title subject is that the impacts of climatic change in the Netherlands are still limited. However, the impacts will be stronger in the next decades and will be even problematic at the end of this century. In this book an overview is given of probable changes in the climate for the Netherlands, danger for flooding in specific areas of the Netherlands, changes of the nature, impacts for agriculture, tourism and recreation, and industry and businesses, and risks for public health [nl

  18. The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piao, Shilong; Ciais, Philippe; Huang, Yao; Shen, Zehao; Peng, Shushi; Li, Junsheng; Zhou, Liping; Liu, Hongyan; Ma, Yuecun; Ding, Yihui; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Liu, Chunzhen; Tan, Kun; Yu, Yongqiang; Zhang, Tianyi; Fang, Jingyun

    2010-09-02

    China is the world's most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, much research has focused on China's influence on climate change but somewhat less has been written about the impact of climate change on China. China experienced explosive economic growth in recent decades, but with only 7% of the world's arable land available to feed 22% of the world's population, China's economy may be vulnerable to climate change itself. We find, however, that notwithstanding the clear warming that has occurred in China in recent decades, current understanding does not allow a clear assessment of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on China's water resources and agriculture and therefore China's ability to feed its people. To reach a more definitive conclusion, future work must improve regional climate simulations-especially of precipitation-and develop a better understanding of the managed and unmanaged responses of crops to changes in climate, diseases, pests and atmospheric constituents.

  19. Environmental impact assessment - baseline noise survey and noise impact assessment for Aurora Mine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yee, S.

    1996-01-01

    A noise impact assessment was conducted at Syncrude's proposed Aurora Mine site to comply with Alberta Energy and Utilities Board (AEUB) Noise Control Directive ID 94-4. Noise assessments were conducted near a major noise source, i.e. the hydraulic and electric shovels. Noise levels at 50 meters away from the source varied from 72.3 to 79.7 dBA. The worst case noise level was 75 dBA measured at 100 meters away from a hydraulic shovel. This assessment was used to calculate the predicted design sound level from a noise source at the nearest or most impacted occupied dwelling. Two cabins located near the access road and along Kearl Lake respectively, were identified as the most impacted and nearest dwellings to the mine site. The predicted sound level at one cabin was 43 dBA, and 55 dBA at the other. Fort McKay was also assessed because it is the nearest community to the mine site. The sound level at Fort McKay was predicted to be 34 dBA. These results indicate that the sound level from Aurora Mine is not in compliance with the AEUB Noise Control Directive. Attenuation measures are required to reduce the noise to acceptable level at Cabin A and B. Predicted sound level at Fort McKay is lower than the permitted sound level

  20. Impact assessment of ionising radiation in wildlife

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    This R and D project was commissioned by the Environment Agency and English Nature in January 2001 to provide up-to-date information on ionising radiation impact to wildlife, upon which a robust assessment approach may be developed. The methodology will provide an interim approach, whilst awaiting the outcome of the European Commission funded project 'Framework for Assessment of Environmental Impact' (FASSET) due to end in October 2003. The aims of the report were: to summarise the latest research on the behaviour, transfer and impact of ionising radiation effects on wildlife; to outline and review relevant European Directives which have impacted on the requirements to assess the impact to wildlife from ionising radiation in the UK; to consider the role of regulatory bodies in assessing the impact of ionising radiation on wildlife with respect to England and Wales; to make recommendations on the relative biological effectiveness of different types of radiation with respect to wildlife; and to recommend an approach with which to assess the 'scale of risk' to wildlife from the effects of ionising radiation, with spreadsheets to support the methodology. The report describes the behaviour and transfer of radionuclides in a number of different ecosystem types. Particular emphasis is placed on those ecosystems most likely to be impacted by the authorised discharges of radioactivity within the UK. As there is no international consensus on the approach to be taken to assess the impact of ionising radiation on wildlife, some countries have adopted their own legislation. The report evaluates these regulatory frameworks and describe the current UK position