WorldWideScience

Sample records for change generalized sensitivities

  1. Thermodynamics of climate change: generalized sensitivities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Lucarini

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Using a recent theoretical approach, we study how global warming impacts the thermodynamics of the climate system by performing experiments with a simplified yet Earth-like climate model. The intensity of the Lorenz energy cycle, the Carnot efficiency, the material entropy production, and the degree of irreversibility of the system change monotonically with the CO2 concentration. Moreover, these quantities feature an approximately linear behaviour with respect to the logarithm of the CO2 concentration in a relatively wide range. These generalized sensitivities suggest that the climate becomes less efficient, more irreversible, and features higher entropy production as it becomes warmer, with changes in the latent heat fluxes playing a predominant role. These results may be of help for explaining recent findings obtained with state of the art climate models regarding how increases in CO2 concentration impact the vertical stratification of the tropical and extratropical atmosphere and the position of the storm tracks.

  2. Generalized tolerance sensitivity and DEA metric sensitivity

    OpenAIRE

    Neralić, Luka; E. Wendell, Richard

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers the relationship between Tolerance sensitivity analysis in optimization and metric sensitivity analysis in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Herein, we extend the results on the generalized Tolerance framework proposed by Wendell and Chen and show how this framework includes DEA metric sensitivity as a special case. Further, we note how recent results in Tolerance sensitivity suggest some possible extensions of the results in DEA metric sensitivity.

  3. Generalized tolerance sensitivity and DEA metric sensitivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luka Neralić

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the relationship between Tolerance sensitivity analysis in optimization and metric sensitivity analysis in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA. Herein, we extend the results on the generalized Tolerance framework proposed by Wendell and Chen and show how this framework includes DEA metric sensitivity as a special case. Further, we note how recent results in Tolerance sensitivity suggest some possible extensions of the results in DEA metric sensitivity.

  4. Possible effects of changes in the meteorological state over semi-arid areas on the general well-being of weather-sensitive patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yackerson, Naomy S; Bromberg, Ljuba; Adler, Batiah; Aizenberg, Alexander

    2012-04-16

    The influence of the changes in atmospheric states, typical for areas close to big deserts, on general well-being of hypertensive persons was analyzed. Under test was the group of 20 hypertensive weather-sensitive patients; their blood pressure, pulse rate and appearance of 4 symptoms of discomfort sensations: arthritic pain, unjustified anxiety, severe headache and inexplicable tiredness- were registered. Symptoms are classified in ICD-9 code (780-790) and scored on a 4-point scale. Results were defined as positive (no departure from the range of normal values) or problematic; the daily number of the latter results was collected under the name "pathological reactions" NPR if at least two of these 7 checked symptoms (of one patient) were outside the normal range. Comparison of the current weather conditions with their means, questioning of patients and repeated examinations are used to gain information. The data was analyzed employing the SAS statistical software. Pearson and Spearman correlations were used, applied on the best and worst days, when a minimum and a maximum of pathological changes NPR in the patients' well-being were observed. The statistical significance was p wind speed WS and direction were expressed in blood pressure changes and in exacerbation of discomfort of various degrees. Unfavorable conditions correspond to days with dominant desert air streams and to high WS, when NPR reaches 85.7%; during the days with prevalent sea breeze NPR was ≤22.9%. The role of wind direction in NPR occurrence is prevalent when WS > 4 m·s-1. The Spearman test gives higher correlation than Pearson test (ρ ~ 0.14, p < 0.03 against ρ ~ 0.1, p < 0.04). NPR is more affected by the air streams than by absolute values of meteorological parameters. The method of this study might give to family doctors some additional tools to predict deterioration in general feelings of chronic patients and could be related to other health problems influenced

  5. Possible effects of changes in the meteorological state over semi-arid areas on the general well-being of weather-sensitive patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yackerson Naomy S

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The influence of the changes in atmospheric states, typical for areas close to big deserts, on general well-being of hypertensive persons was analyzed. Methods Under test was the group of 20 hypertensive weather-sensitive patients; their blood pressure, pulse rate and appearance of 4 symptoms of discomfort sensations: arthritic pain, unjustified anxiety, severe headache and inexplicable tiredness- were registered. Symptoms are classified in ICD-9 code (780–790 and scored on a 4-point scale. Results were defined as positive (no departure from the range of normal values or problematic; the daily number of the latter results was collected under the name “pathological reactions” NPR if at least two of these 7 checked symptoms (of one patient were outside the normal range. Comparison of the current weather conditions with their means, questioning of patients and repeated examinations are used to gain information. The data was analyzed employing the SAS statistical software. Pearson and Spearman correlations were used, applied on the best and worst days, when a minimum and a maximum of pathological changes NPR in the patients’ well-being were observed. The statistical significance was p  Results ~1500 medical observations and verbal statements were registered in the Primary Care Clinic (Be’er-Sheva, Israel during 2001–2002. No meaning correlation was found between NPR and absolute values of temperature, humidity and atmospheric pressure. Variations in wind speed WS and direction were expressed in blood pressure changes and in exacerbation of discomfort of various degrees. Unfavorable conditions correspond to days with dominant desert air streams and to high WS, when NPR reaches 85.7%; during the days with prevalent sea breeze NPR was ≤22.9%. The role of wind direction in NPR occurrence is prevalent when WS > 4 m·s-1. The Spearman test gives higher correlation than Pearson test (ρ ~ 0.14, p ρ ~ 0

  6. Weight Changes in General Practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Køster-Rasmussen, Rasmus

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: This PhD thesis is about weight changes. What determines long-term weight changes in the adult general population? Is it possible that weight loss may not always be healthy? The present clinical guidelines for general practice advice most overweight persons and patients with type 2 ...... lifestyle changes like for instance Mediterranean diet and increased exercise....

  7. Luminescence sensitivity changes in quartz

    CERN Document Server

    Wintle, A G

    1999-01-01

    In the luminescence dating of sedimentary or heated quartz, some heat treatment is usually applied to the sample immediately prior to the measurement of the optically stimulated luminescence. In this paper we report experiments on a 30,000-year-old sedimentary quartz, in which we use the luminescence response to a test dose to monitor the changes in sensitivity that are caused by holding the quartz at temperatures from 160 to 280 deg. C for times from 10 s to 22 h. For an optically bleached sample, the monitoring is by both optically stimulated luminescence and the 110 deg. C TL peak; both luminescence signals are shown to have the same sensitisation (i.e. activation energy) characteristics. For natural or laboratory irradiated samples only the 110 deg. C TL peak can be used; sensitivity increases of up to a factor of 1.3 and 3 are observed for the natural and laboratory irradiated aliquots, respectively. Up to four exponential components are used to deconvolve the sensitivity change data; the dominant compon...

  8. Contributions to sensitivity analysis and generalized discriminant analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacques, J.

    2005-12-01

    Two topics are studied in this thesis: sensitivity analysis and generalized discriminant analysis. Global sensitivity analysis of a mathematical model studies how the output variables of this last react to variations of its inputs. The methods based on the study of the variance quantify the part of variance of the response of the model due to each input variable and each subset of input variables. The first subject of this thesis is the impact of a model uncertainty on results of a sensitivity analysis. Two particular forms of uncertainty are studied: that due to a change of the model of reference, and that due to the use of a simplified model with the place of the model of reference. A second problem was studied during this thesis, that of models with correlated inputs. Indeed, classical sensitivity indices not having significance (from an interpretation point of view) in the presence of correlation of the inputs, we propose a multidimensional approach consisting in expressing the sensitivity of the output of the model to groups of correlated variables. Applications in the field of nuclear engineering illustrate this work. Generalized discriminant analysis consists in classifying the individuals of a test sample in groups, by using information contained in a training sample, when these two samples do not come from the same population. This work extends existing methods in a Gaussian context to the case of binary data. An application in public health illustrates the utility of generalized discrimination models thus defined. (author)

  9. Weight Changes in General Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Køster-Rasmussen, Rasmus

    2017-06-01

    This PhD thesis is about weight changes. What determines long-term weight changes in the adult general population? Is it possible that weight loss may not always be healthy? The present clinical guidelines for general practice advice most overweight persons and patients with type 2 diabetes to lose weight. Are the guidelines based on firm evidence?   METHODS: The back-bone of the thesis is constituted by three scientific articles based on three different population based cohort studies. Multivariable modeling and other epidemiological methods were used.   RESULTS: Article 1 examined weight changes in the general population in relation to smoking status, and proposed a graphical 'smoking cessation weight change model', demonstrating the importance of time, age and smoking status in relation to long-term weight changes. Article 2 suggested new methods to improve the processing of dietary data. It was demonstrated how median imputation for missing values and assumptions about standard portion sizes were inferior to stochastic methods conditioning on information about physiology of the individual. Article 3 evaluated the influence of prospectively planned intentional weight loss on long-term morbidity and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes. Therapeutic intentional weight loss supervised by a medical doctor was not associated with reduced morbidity or mortality. In the general population the dietary intake of fructose and soft drinks sweetened with sugar was not associated with weight change over 9 years. Weight gain rates were large in young adults and incrementally smaller in middle aged adults. Subjects more than 60 years lost weight on average. Historical weight data suggest that the body weight increases throughout life to the age of 60-65years. A study with simulated data indicates that bias in baseline BMI may misleadingly have favored weight loss in earlier cohort studies of intentional weight loss and mortality.   DISCUSSION: The findings regarding

  10. Sensitivity of wave energy to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Harrison, Gareth; Wallace, Robin

    2005-01-01

    Wave energy will have a key role in meeting renewable energy targets en route to a low carbon economy. However, in common with other renewables, it may be sensitive to changes in climate resulting from rising carbon emissions. Changes in wind patterns are widely anticipated and this will ultimately alter wave regimes. Indeed, evidence indicates that wave heights have been changing over the last 40 years, although there is no proven link to global warming. Changes in the wave climate will impa...

  11. A general first-order global sensitivity analysis method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Chonggang; Gertner, George Zdzislaw

    2008-01-01

    Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST) is one of the most popular global sensitivity analysis techniques. The main mechanism of FAST is to assign each parameter with a characteristic frequency through a search function. Then, for a specific parameter, the variance contribution can be singled out of the model output by the characteristic frequency. Although FAST has been widely applied, there are two limitations: (1) the aliasing effect among parameters by using integer characteristic frequencies and (2) the suitability for only models with independent parameters. In this paper, we synthesize the improvement to overcome the aliasing effect limitation [Tarantola S, Gatelli D, Mara TA. Random balance designs for the estimation of first order global sensitivity indices. Reliab Eng Syst Safety 2006; 91(6):717-27] and the improvement to overcome the independence limitation [Xu C, Gertner G. Extending a global sensitivity analysis technique to models with correlated parameters. Comput Stat Data Anal 2007, accepted for publication]. In this way, FAST can be a general first-order global sensitivity analysis method for linear/nonlinear models with as many correlated/uncorrelated parameters as the user specifies. We apply the general FAST to four test cases with correlated parameters. The results show that the sensitivity indices derived by the general FAST are in good agreement with the sensitivity indices derived by the correlation ratio method, which is a non-parametric method for models with correlated parameters

  12. A general sensitivity theory for simulations of nonlinear systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kenton, M.A.

    1981-01-01

    A general sensitivity theory is developed for nonlinear lumped-parameter system simulations. The point-of-departure is general perturbation theory, which has long been used for linear systems in nuclear engineering and reactor physics. The theory allows the sensitivity of particular figures-of-merit of the system behavior to be calculated with respect to any parameter.An explicit procedure is derived for applying the theory to physical systems undergoing sudden events (e.g., reactor scrams, tank ruptures). A related problem, treating figures-of-merit defined as functions of extremal values of system variables occurring at sudden events, is handled by the same procedure. The general calculational scheme for applying the theory to numerical codes is discussed. It is shown that codes which use pre-packaged implicit integration subroutines can be augmented to include sensitivity theory: a companion set of subroutines to solve the sensitivity problem is listed. This combined system analysis code is applied to a simple model for loss of post-accident heat removal in a liquid metal-cooled fast breeder reactor. The uses of the theory for answering more general sensitivity questions are discussed. One application of the theory is to systematically determine whether specific physical processes in a model contribute significantly to the figures-of-merit. Another application of the theory is for selecting parameter values which enable a model to match experimentally observed behavior

  13. Spectral sensitivity of a colour changing spider.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Defrize, Jérémy; Lazzari, Claudio R; Warrant, Eric J; Casas, Jérôme

    2011-04-01

    Vision plays a paramount role in some spider families such as the Salticidae, Lycosidae and Thomisidae, as it is involved in prey hunting, orientation or choice of substrate. In the thomisid Misumena vatia, for which the substrate colour affects the body colour, vision seems to mediate morphological colour changes. However, nothing is known about which component of visual signals from the substrate might be perceived, nor whether M. vatia possesses the physiological basis for colour vision. The aim of this study is thus to investigate the vision of this spider species by measuring the spectral sensitivities of the different pairs of eyes using electrophysiological methods. Extra- and intracellular electrophysiological recordings combined with selective adaptation revealed the presence of two classes of photoreceptor cells, one sensitive in the UV region of the spectrum (around 340 nm) and one sensitive in the green (around 520 nm) regions in the four pairs of eyes. We conclude that M. vatia possesses the physiological potential to perceive both chromatic and achromatic components of the environment. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Assessing sensitivity to change: choosing the appropriate change coefficient

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stratford Paul W

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The past 20-years have seen the development and evaluation of many health status measures. Unlike the high standards demanded of those who conduct and report clinical intervention trials, the methodological rigor for studies examining the sensitivity to change of health status measures are less demanding. It is likely that the absence of a criterion standard for change in health status contributes to this shortcoming. To increase confidence in the results of these types of studies investigators have often calculated multiple change coefficients for the same patient sample. The purpose of this report is to identify the conflict that arises when multiple change coefficients are applied to the same patient sample. Three families of change coefficients based on different assumptions concerning the sample composition are identified: (1 the sample is homogeneous with respect to change; (2 subgroups of patients who truly change by different amounts exist; (3 individual patients, many of whom truly change by different amounts exist. We present several analyses which illustrate a major conceptual conflict: the signal (a measure's true ability to detect change for some of these coefficients appears in the noise term (measurement error of the others. We speculate that this dilemma occurs as a result of insufficient preparatory work such as pilot studies to establish the likely change characteristic of the patient population of interest. Uncertainty in the choice of change coefficient could be overcome by conducting pilot studies to ascertain the likely change characteristic of the population of interest. Once the population's change characteristic is identified, the choice of change coefficient should be clear.

  15. Organization and change in general practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, John Sahl

    Organization and change in general practice Abstract for a symposium at Nordic Congress for General Practice Thursday 14 May at 15.30-17.00 General practice is under increasing pressure to assume new tasks, adopt new technologies and engage in new organizational structures. However, in a field...... of multiple actors and concerns such visions are rarely straightforward to realize. This symposium explores the significance of various organizational, cultural and regulative features of general practice in relation to proposals for change in the sector. Presentations: Thorkil Thorsen, Marius Kousgaard...... primary care. One purpose is to give more freedom to the patients to choose care-givers. Another is to create a more competitive health care system. These reforms will be evaluated in a research project to be presented. Chairman: John Sahl Andersen MESH-terms: Delivery of Health Care, Health Care Reform...

  16. Sensitivity of Climate to Changes in NDVI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bounoua, L.; Collatz, G. J.; Los, S. O.; Sellers, P. J.; Dazlich, D. A.; Tucker, C. J.; Randall, D. A.

    1999-01-01

    The sensitivity of global and regional climate to changes in vegetation density is investigated using a coupled biosphere-atmosphere model. The magnitude of the vegetation changes and their spatial distribution are based on natural decadal variability of the normalized difference vegetation index (ndvi). Different scenarios using maximum and minimum vegetation cover were derived from satellite records spanning the period 1982-1990. Albedo decreased in the northern latitudes and increased in the tropics with increased ndvi. The increase in vegetation density revealed that the vegetation's physiological response was constrained by the limits of the available water resources. The difference between the maximum and minimum vegetation scenarios resulted in a 46% increase in absorbed visible solar radiation and a similar increase in gross photosynthetic C02 uptake on a global annual basis. This caused the canopy transpiration and interception fluxes to increase, and reduced those from the soil. The redistribution of the surface energy fluxes substantially reduced the Bowen ratio during the growing season, resulting in cooler and moister near-surface climate, except when soil moisture was limiting. Important effects of increased vegetation on climate are : (1) A cooling of about 1.8 K in the northern latitudes during the growing season and a slight warming during the winter, which is primarily due to the masking of high albedo of snow by a denser canopy. and (2) A year round cooling of 0.8 K in the tropics. These results suggest that increases in vegetation density could partially compensate for parallel increases in greenhouse warming . Increasing vegetation density globally caused both evapotranspiration and precipitation to increase. Evapotranspiration, however increased more than precipitation resulting in a global soil-water deficit of about 15 %. A spectral analysis on the simulated results showed that changes in the state of vegetation could affect the low

  17. Sensitivity of lod scores to changes in diagnostic status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodge, S E; Greenberg, D A

    1992-05-01

    This paper investigates effects on lod scores when one individual in a data set changes diagnostic or recombinant status. First we examine the situation in which a single offspring in a nuclear family changes status. The nuclear-family situation, in addition to being of interest in its own right, also has general theoretical importance, since nuclear families are "transparent"; that is, one can track genetic events more precisely in nuclear families than in complex pedigrees. We demonstrate that in nuclear families log10 [(1-theta)/theta] gives an upper limit on the impact that a single offspring's change in status can have on the lod score at that recombination fraction (theta). These limits hold for a fully penetrant dominant condition and fully informative marker, in either phase-known or phase-unknown matings. Moreover, log10 [(1-theta)/theta] (where theta denotes the value of theta at which Zmax occurs) gives an upper limit on the impact of a single offspring's status change on the maximum lod score (Zmax). In extended pedigrees, in contrast to nuclear families, no comparable limit can be set on the impact of a single individual on the lod score. Complex pedigrees are subject to both stabilizing and destabilizing influences, and these are described. Finally, we describe a "sensitivity analysis," in which, after all linkage analysis is completed, every informative individual in the data set is changed, one at a time, to see the effect which each separate change has on the lod scores. The procedure includes identifying "critical individuals," i.e., those who would have the greatest impact on the lod scores, should their diagnostic status in fact change. To illustrate use of the sensitivity analysis, we apply it to the large bipolar pedigree reported by Egeland et al. and Kelsoe et al. We show that the changes in lod scores observed there, on the order of 1.1-1.2 per person, are not unusual. We recommend that investigators include a sensitivity analysis as a

  18. Computer use changes generalization of movement learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Kunlin; Yan, Xiang; Kong, Gaiqing; Yin, Cong; Zhang, Fan; Wang, Qining; Kording, Konrad Paul

    2014-01-06

    Over the past few decades, one of the most salient lifestyle changes for us has been the use of computers. For many of us, manual interaction with a computer occupies a large portion of our working time. Through neural plasticity, this extensive movement training should change our representation of movements (e.g., [1-3]), just like search engines affect memory [4]. However, how computer use affects motor learning is largely understudied. Additionally, as virtually all participants in studies of perception and actions are computer users, a legitimate question is whether insights from these studies bear the signature of computer-use experience. We compared non-computer users with age- and education-matched computer users in standard motor learning experiments. We found that people learned equally fast but that non-computer users generalized significantly less across space, a difference negated by two weeks of intensive computer training. Our findings suggest that computer-use experience shaped our basic sensorimotor behaviors, and this influence should be considered whenever computer users are recruited as study participants. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Brief exposure to sensory cues elicits stimulus-nonspecific general sensitization in an insect.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian Minoli

    Full Text Available The effect of repeated exposure to sensory stimuli, with or without reward is well known to induce stimulus-specific modifications of behaviour, described as different forms of learning. In recent studies we showed that a brief single pre-exposure to the female-produced sex pheromone or even a predator sound can increase the behavioural and central nervous responses to this pheromone in males of the noctuid moth Spodoptera littoralis. To investigate if this increase in sensitivity might be restricted to the pheromone system or is a form of general sensitization, we studied here if a brief pre-exposure to stimuli of different modalities can reciprocally change behavioural and physiological responses to olfactory and gustatory stimuli. Olfactory and gustatory pre-exposure and subsequent behavioural tests were carried out to reveal possible intra- and cross-modal effects. Attraction to pheromone, monitored with a locomotion compensator, increased after exposure to olfactory and gustatory stimuli. Behavioural responses to sucrose, investigated using the proboscis extension reflex, increased equally after pre-exposure to olfactory and gustatory cues. Pheromone-specific neurons in the brain and antennal gustatory neurons did, however, not change their sensitivity after sucrose exposure. The observed intra- and reciprocal cross-modal effects of pre-exposure may represent a new form of stimulus-nonspecific general sensitization originating from modifications at higher sensory processing levels.

  20. Limitations to the Generality of Cocaine Locomotor Sensitization

    OpenAIRE

    Marusich, Julie A.; Branch, Marc N.; Dallery, Jesse

    2008-01-01

    Repeated exposure to cocaine often leads to tolerance to effects on operant behavior, whereas sensitization often develops to effects on locomotor activity. The purpose of the present set of experiments was to examine if locomotor sensitization to cocaine would develop in the presence or absence of an operant contingency in rats. In Experiment 1, rats lever pressed on an FR schedule of reinforcement, and were administered chronic cocaine. Tolerance to effects of cocaine on lever pressing deve...

  1. OSL sensitivity changes during single aliquot procedures: Computer simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McKeever, S.W.S.; Agersnap Larsen, N.; Bøtter-Jensen, L.

    1997-01-01

    We present computer simulations of sensitivity changes obtained during single aliquot, regeneration procedures. The simulations indicate that the sensitivity changes are the combined result of shallow trap and deep trap effects. Four separate processes have been identified. Although procedures can...... be suggested to eliminate the shallow trap effects, it appears that the deep trap effects cannot be removed. The character of the sensitivity changes which result from these effects is seen to be dependent upon several external parameters, including the extent of bleaching of the OSL signal, the laboratory...

  2. Climatic change and impacts: a general introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fantechi, R.; Almeida-Teixeira, M.E.; Maracchi, G.

    1991-01-01

    These proceedings are divided into six parts containing 29 technical papers. 1. An Overview of the Climatic System, 2. Past climate Changes, 3. Climate Processes and Climate Modelling, 4. Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change, 5. Climatic Impacts, 6. STUDENTS' PAPERS

  3. Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Maria G; Orme, C David L; Suttle, K Blake; Mace, Georgina M

    2014-11-04

    Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk.

  4. Changing Paradigms in General Music Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özgül, Ilhan

    2015-01-01

    In Turkey, part of general music education in primary schools is music lessons, which are taught by primary school teachers for grades 1-4 and music teachers for grades 5-8. In the 21st century, the music education approach in schools has shifted from "school music" to "music in the school." This orientation is directly related…

  5. Climate and climate change sensitivity to model configuration in the Canadian RCM over North America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Elia, Ramon [Ouranos Consortium on Regional Climate and Adaptation to Climate Change, Montreal (Canada); Centre ESCER, Univ. du Quebec a Montreal (Canada); Cote, Helene [Ouranos Consortium on Regional Climate and Adaptation to Climate Change, Montreal (Canada)

    2010-06-15

    Climate simulations performed with Regional Climate Models (RCMs) have been found to show sensitivity to parameter settings. The origin, consequences and interpretations of this sensitivity are varied, but it is generally accepted that sensitivity studies are very important for a better understanding and a more cautious manipulation of RCM results. In this work we present sensitivity experiments performed on the simulated climate produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). In addition to climate sensitivity to parameter variation, we analyse the impact of the sensitivity on the climate change signal simulated by the CRCM. These studies are performed on 30-year long simulated present and future seasonal climates, and we have analysed the effect of seven kinds of configuration modifications: CRCM initial conditions, lateral boundary condition (LBC), nesting update interval, driving Global Climate Model (GCM), driving GCM member, large-scale spectral nudging, CRCM version, and domain size. Results show that large changes in both the driving model and the CRCM physics seem to be the main sources of sensitivity for the simulated climate and the climate change. Their effects dominate those of configuration issues, such as the use or not of large-scale nudging, domain size, or LBC update interval. Results suggest that in most cases, differences between simulated climates for different CRCM configurations are not transferred to the estimated climate change signal: in general, these tend to cancel each other out. (orig.)

  6. Sensitivity of Alpine Snow and Streamflow Regimes to Climate Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasouli, K.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Marks, D. G.; Bernhardt, M.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the sensitivity of hydrological processes to climate change in alpine areas with snow dominated regimes is of paramount importance as alpine basins show both high runoff efficiency associated with the melt of the seasonal snowpack and great sensitivity of snow processes to temperature change. In this study, meteorological data measured in a selection of alpine headwaters basins including Reynolds Mountain East, Idaho, USA, Wolf Creek, Yukon in Canada, and Zugspitze Mountain, Germany with climates ranging from arctic to continental temperate were used to study the snow and streamflow sensitivity to climate change. All research sites have detailed multi-decadal meteorological and snow measurements. The Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) was used to create a model representing a typical alpine headwater basin discretized into hydrological response units with physically based representations of snow redistribution by wind, complex terrain snowmelt energetics and runoff processes in alpine tundra. The sensitivity of snow hydrology to climate change was investigated by changing air temperature and precipitation using weather generating methods based on the change factors obtained from different climate model projections for future and current periods. The basin mean and spatial variability of peak snow water equivalent, sublimation loss, duration of snow season, snowmelt rates, streamflow peak, and basin discharge were assessed under varying climate scenarios and the most sensitive hydrological mechanisms to the changes in the different alpine climates were detected. The results show that snow hydrology in colder alpine climates is more resilient to warming than that in warmer climates, but that compensatory factors to warming such as reduced blowing snow sublimation loss and reduced melt rate should also be assessed when considering climate change impacts on alpine hydrology.

  7. Transportation and General Traffic Management, Change 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-01-01

    This Handbook sets forth those transportation and general traffic management responsibilities, guidelines, and procedures governing the use of commercial and Government transportation for NASA. Transportation is an integral function of the logistic process, involving all activities incident to the movement of persons and things. The fundamental and continuous objectives of transportation are to control and diminish the time-distance of lines of communication by the most suitable means. The function of transportation is accomplished through, and encompasses all, the planning, direction, supervision, and execution of the technical, operational, and administrative tasks required to procure or furnish efficient and economical conveyance of cargo and personnel by all modes of commercial and Government transportation. This Handbook is applicable to NASA Headquarters and Field Installations.

  8. Luminescence sensitivity changes in quartz as a result of annealing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøtter-Jensen, L.; Agersnap Larsen, N.; Mejdahl, V.

    1995-01-01

    archaeological samples show very different OSL sensitivities. In this paper we report on studies of the effect of high temperature annealing on the OSL and phototransferred TL (PTTL) signals from sedimentary and synthetic quartz. A dramatic enhancement of both OSL and PTTL sensitivity was found especially...... in the temperature range 500-800 degrees C. Computer simulations of the possible effects are shown to produce data that agree in all essential details with the experimental observations. It is further demonstrated that the enhanced OSL sensitivity as a function of annealing temperature is not a pre-dose effect....... of magnitude less per unit radiation than that for heated material. The reason these temperature-induced sensitivity changes occur in quartz is presently not well understood. This phenomenon is also seen in the related area of luminescence dating in which sedimentary quartz and quartz from heated...

  9. Recording membrane potential changes through photoacoustic voltage sensitive dye

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Haichong K.; Kang, Jeeun; Yan, Ping

    2017-01-01

    Monitoring of the membrane potential is possible using voltage sensitive dyes (VSD), where fluorescence intensity changes in response to neuronal electrical activity. However, fluorescence imaging is limited by depth of penetration and high scattering losses, which leads to low sensitivity in vivo...... systems for external detection. In contrast, photoacoustic (PA) imaging, an emerging modality, is capable of deep tissue, noninvasive imaging by combining near infrared light excitation and ultrasound detection. In this work, we develop the theoretical concept whereby the voltage-dependent quenching...... the experimental PA intensity change depends on fluorescence and absorbance properties of the dye. These results not only demonstrate the voltage sensing capability of the dye, but also indicate the necessity of considering both fluorescence and absorbance spectral sensitivities in order to optimize...

  10. Lessons on climate sensitivity from past climate changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    von der Heydt, A.S.; Dijkstra, H.A.; van de Wal, R.S.W.; Caballero, R.; Crucifix, M.; Foster, G.L.; Huber, M.; Kohler, P.; Rohling, E.; Valdes, P.J.; Ashwin, P.; Bathiany, S.; Berends, T.; van Bree, L.G.J.; Ditlevsen, P.; Ghil, M.; Haywood, A.; Katzav, J.K.; Lohmann, G.; Lohmann, J.; Lucarini, V.; Marzocchi, A.; Palike, H.; Ruvalcaba Baroni, I.; Simon, D.; Sluijs, A.; Stap, L.B.; Tantet, A.; Viebahn, J.; Ziegler, M.

    2016-01-01

    Over the last decade, our understanding of climate sensitivity has improved considerably. The climate system shows variability on many timescales, is subject to non-stationary forcing and it is most likely out of equilibrium with the changes in the radiative forcing. Slow and fast feedbacks

  11. EMPIRICAL GENERALIZATIONS ABOUT THE IMPACT OF ADVERTISING ON PRICE SENSITIVITY AND PRICE

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    KAUL, A; WITTINK, DR

    1995-01-01

    Consumers' sensitivities to price changes are an important input to strategic and tactical decisions. It has been argued that price sensitivities depend on factors such as advertising Prior studies on the effect of advertising on consumer price sensitivity have found seemingly conflicting results.

  12. Sensitivity of streamflow to climate change in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grantham, T.; Carlisle, D.; Wolock, D.; McCabe, G. J.; Wieczorek, M.; Howard, J.

    2015-12-01

    Trends of decreasing snowpack and increasing risk of drought are looming challenges for California water resource management. Increasing vulnerability of the state's natural water supplies threatens California's social-economic vitality and the health of its freshwater ecosystems. Despite growing awareness of potential climate change impacts, robust management adaptation has been hindered by substantial uncertainty in future climate predictions for the region. Down-scaled global climate model (GCM) projections uniformly suggest future warming of the region, but projections are highly variable with respect to the direction and magnitude of change in regional precipitation. Here we examine the sensitivity of California surface water supplies to climate variation independently of GCMs. We use a statistical approach to construct predictive models of monthly streamflow based on historical climate and river basin features. We then propagate an ensemble of synthetic climate simulations through the models to assess potential streamflow responses to changes in temperature and precipitation in different months and regions of the state. We also consider the range of streamflow change predicted by bias-corrected downscaled GCMs. Our results indicate that the streamflow in the xeric and coastal mountain regions of California is more sensitive to changes in precipitation than temperature, whereas streamflow in the interior mountain region responds strongly to changes in both temperature and precipitation. Mean climate projections for 2025-2075 from GCM ensembles are highly variable, indicating streamflow changes of -50% to +150% relative to baseline (1980-2010) for most months and regions. By quantifying the sensitivity of streamflow to climate change, rather than attempting to predict future hydrologic conditions based on uncertain GCM projections, these results should be more informative to water managers seeking to assess, and potentially reduce, the vulnerability of surface

  13. Increased sensitivity to climate change in disturbed ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kroël-Dulay, György; Ransijn, Johannes; Schmidt, Inger Kappel

    2015-01-01

    Human domination of the biosphere includes changes to disturbance regimes, which push many ecosystems towards early-successional states. Ecological theory predicts that early-successional ecosystems are more sensitive to perturbations than mature systems, but little evidence supports this relatio......Human domination of the biosphere includes changes to disturbance regimes, which push many ecosystems towards early-successional states. Ecological theory predicts that early-successional ecosystems are more sensitive to perturbations than mature systems, but little evidence supports...... this relationship for the perturbation of climate change. Here we show that vegetation (abundance, species richness and species composition) across seven European shrublands is quite resistant to moderate experimental warming and drought, and responsiveness is associated with the dynamic state of the ecosystem...

  14. Hair receptor sensitivity to changes in laminar boundary layer shape

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dickinson, B T

    2010-01-01

    Biologists have shown that bat wings contain distributed arrays of flow-sensitive hair receptors. The hair receptors are hypothesized to feedback information on airflows over the bat wing for enhanced stability or maneuverability during flight. Here, we study the geometric specialization of hair-like structures for the detection of changes in boundary layer velocity profiles (shapes). A quasi-steady model that relates the flow velocity profile incident on the longitudinal axis of a hair to the resultant moment and shear force at the hair base is developed. The hair length relative to the boundary layer momentum thickness that maximizes the resultant moment and shear-force sensitivity to changes in boundary layer shape is determined. The sensitivity of the resultant moment and shear force is shown to be highly dependent on hair length. Hairs that linearly taper to a point are shown to provide greater output sensitivity than hairs of uniform cross-section. On an order of magnitude basis, the computed optimal hair lengths are in agreement with the range of hair receptor lengths measured on individual bat species. These results support the hypothesis that bats use hair receptors for detecting changes in boundary layer shape and provide geometric guidelines for artificial hair sensor design and application.

  15. Changes in Hearing Sensitivity Following Portable Stereo System Use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pugsley, S; Stuart, A; Kalinowski, J; Armson, J

    1993-11-01

    Changes in hearing sensitivity following portable stereo system (PSS; Sony Walkman Model WM-AF605 with Sony Semiaural Headphones Model MDR-A21L) use were investigated. Test-retest differences (TRDs) in audiometric thresholds at eight frequencies (250, 500, 1000, 2000, 3000, 4000, 6000, & 8000 Hz) were obtained from 15 young adults before and after one hour of PSS exposure at their preferred listening levels.Values for the 95% confidence levels representing critical differences in test-retest auditory thresholds for the eight test frequencies were generated from a control group of 15 young adults. Experimental subjects' TRDs, when compared to the critical TRDs, failed to display a decrease in hearing sensitivity after one hour of PSS use. It is suggested that PSS use at preferred listening levels, following an exposure time of one hour, may not contribute to a significant impairment in hearing sensitivity.

  16. Runoff sensitivity to climate change in the Nile River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, Emad; Tarhule, Aondover; Kirstetter, Pierre-Emmanuel; Clark, Race; Hong, Yang

    2018-06-01

    In data scarce basins, such as the Nile River Basin (NRB) in Africa, constraints related to data availability, quality, and access often complicate attempts to estimate runoff sensitivity using conventional methods. In this paper, we show that by integrating the concept of the aridity index (AI) (derived from the Budyko curve) and climate elasticity, we can obtain the first order response of the runoff sensitivity using minimal data input and modeling expertise or experience. The concept of runoff elasticity relies on the fact that the energy available for evapotranspiration plays a major role in determining whether the precipitation received within a drainage basin generates runoff. The approach does not account for human impacts on runoff modification and or diversions. By making use of freely available gauge-corrected satellite data for precipitation, temperature, runoff, and potential evapotranspiration, we derived the sensitivity indicator (β) to determine the runoff response to changes in precipitation and temperature for four climatic zones in the NRB, namely, tropical, subtropical, semiarid and arid zones. The proposed sensitivity indicator can be partitioned into different elasticity components i.e: precipitation (εp), potential evapotranspiration (εETp), temperature (εT) and the total elasticity (εtot) . These elasticities allow robust quantification of the runoff response to the potential changes in precipitation and temperature with a high degree of accuracy. Results indicate that the tropical zone is energy-constrained with low sensitivity, (β 1.0) . The subtropical-highland zone moves between energy-limited to water-limited conditions during periods of wet and dry spells with varying sensitivity. The semiarid and arid zones are water limited, with high sensitivity, (β > 1.0) . The calculated runoff elasticities show that a 10% decrease in precipitation leads to a decrease in runoff of between 19% in the tropical zone and 30% in the arid zones

  17. Creating Lasting Behavioral Change through the Generalization Analysis Worksheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brady, John; Kotkin, Ron

    2011-01-01

    The goal of any behavioral program is to facilitate lasting change. A significant criticism of behavioral programs is that they work in the clinical setting but do not generalize once the clinical program is stopped. The authors suggest that behavioral programs often do not generalize because clinicians fail to plan for generalization to occur…

  18. The prevalence and morbidity of sensitization to fragrance mix I in the general population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thyssen, J P; Linneberg, A; Menné, T

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The prevalence of sensitization to fragrance mix (FM) I and Myroxylon pereirae (MP, balsam of Peru) has decreased in recent years among Danish women with dermatitis. OBJECTIVES: This study investigated whether the decrease could be confirmed among women in the general population. Furt...... supported a recent decrease in the prevalence of FM I and MP sensitization in Denmark. The study also showed that fragrance sensitization was associated with self-reported cosmetic dermatitis and use of health care related to cosmetic dermatitis....

  19. The changing Mediterranean Sea — a sensitive ecosystem?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turley, Carol M.

    1999-08-01

    I was asked to present a keynote paper on the socio-economic aspects of oceanographic research in the Mediterranean Sea in the Session on From Oceanographic Science to Policy at the International Conference on Progress in Oceanography of the Mediterranean Sea, Rome November 1997. The session was unique in that it included papers from oceanographers, social scientists and economists. For this reason I have aimed this paper towards, what I consider to be, social and economic issues that may have important oceanographic outcomes and vice versa. I have attempted to express them in a manner that can be understood by economists, social scientists, policy makers and oceanographers alike. The Mediterranean is highly populated and the greatest tourist destination in the world, both of which are predicted by UNEP to rise substantially in the future. Its blue waters, however, include some of the most extreme oligotrophic waters in the world such that it is only capable of supplying 50% of its requirements for fish. The relatively clear, pigment poor surface waters of the Mediterranean have a general increasing oligotrophy eastward with substantially lower phytoplankton, benthic and fish production in the eastern basin. The Mediterranean Sea is highly sensitive to climatic changes; it has high evaporation rates, low land runoff from few rivers and seasonal rains resulting in a deficit in its hydrological balance. This has worsened with the damming of rivers such as the Nile. Nutrient depleted Atlantic water flows into the Mediterranean through the narrow Strait of Gibraltar and exits after circulating the basin with nearly 10% more salt content. This hydrological imbalance may have far-reaching consequences in the Atlantic, producing similar climate changes in Northern Europe, to that seen during the last glaciation, and may be linked to a hydrological deficit in the Mediterranean Sea resulting from a decline in the Nile outflow. The basin-wide circulation, hot-dry and

  20. Recording membrane potential changes through photoacoustic voltage sensitive dye

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Haichong K.; Kang, Jeeun; Yan, Ping; Abou, Diane S.; Le, Hanh N. D.; Thorek, Daniel L. J.; Kang, Jin U.; Gjedde, Albert; Rahmim, Arman; Wong, Dean F.; Loew, Leslie M.; Boctor, Emad M.

    2017-03-01

    Monitoring of the membrane potential is possible using voltage sensitive dyes (VSD), where fluorescence intensity changes in response to neuronal electrical activity. However, fluorescence imaging is limited by depth of penetration and high scattering losses, which leads to low sensitivity in vivo systems for external detection. In contrast, photoacoustic (PA) imaging, an emerging modality, is capable of deep tissue, noninvasive imaging by combining near infrared light excitation and ultrasound detection. In this work, we develop the theoretical concept whereby the voltage-dependent quenching of dye fluorescence leads to a reciprocal enhancement of PA intensity. Based on this concept, we synthesized a novel near infrared photoacoustic VSD (PA-VSD) whose PA intensity change is sensitive to membrane potential. In the polarized state, this cyanine-based probe enhances PA intensity while decreasing fluorescence output in a lipid vesicle membrane model. With a 3-9 μM VSD concentration, we measured a PA signal increase in the range of 5.3 % to 18.1 %, and observed a corresponding signal reduction in fluorescence emission of 30.0 % to 48.7 %. A theoretical model successfully accounts for how the experimental PA intensity change depends on fluorescence and absorbance properties of the dye. These results not only demonstrate the voltage sensing capability of the dye, but also indicate the necessity of considering both fluorescence and absorbance spectral sensitivities in order to optimize the characteristics of improved photoacoustic probes. Together, our results demonstrate photoacoustic sensing as a potential new modality for sub-second recording and external imaging of electrophysiological and neurochemical events in the brain.

  1. Changes of retinal light sensitivity after YAG-laser capsulotomy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pahor, D.; Gracner, B.

    2003-01-01

    The aim of this prospective study was to investigate the changes of retinal light sensitivity of central visual field in patients with posterior capsule opacification (PCO) after YAG-laser capsulotomy. Our study includes 18 eyes ( 18 patients) with PCO after phacoemulsification and intraocular lens implantation. In all patients YAG-laser capsulotomy was performed. In all patients, a threshold visual field analysis was carried out with the C 30-2 program of the automated Humphrey Field Analyzer before and one month after the procedure. In all patients a significant improvement of visual acuity was observed one month after capsulotomy (p 0.00004). One month after YAG-laser treatment, a significant improvement of retinal light sensitivity in the central visual field was also observed. The average MD (mean deviation) before the procedure was -6.88 db (±3.9, max. -11.7, min. 2.17) and after the procedure --4.58 db (±4.37, max. -10.87, min. +0.51). The improvement in MD was statistically significant (p = 0.00475). No correlation was established between the improvement of retinal light sensitivity and patient age or the size of capsulotomy. Our study shows that the improvement of retinal light sensitivity is significant after YAG-laser capsulotomy and does not depend on patient age or capsulotomy size. (author)

  2. Developmental change in children's sensitivity to sound symbolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tzeng, Christina Y; Nygaard, Lynne C; Namy, Laura L

    2017-08-01

    The current study examined developmental change in children's sensitivity to sound symbolism. Three-, five-, and seven-year-old children heard sound symbolic novel words and foreign words meaning round and pointy and chose which of two pictures (one round and one pointy) best corresponded to each word they heard. Task performance varied as a function of both word type and age group such that accuracy was greater for novel words than for foreign words, and task performance increased with age for both word types. For novel words, children in all age groups reliably chose the correct corresponding picture. For foreign words, 3-year-olds showed chance performance, whereas 5- and 7-year-olds showed reliably above-chance performance. Results suggest increased sensitivity to sound symbolic cues with development and imply that although sensitivity to sound symbolism may be available early and facilitate children's word-referent mappings, sensitivity to subtler sound symbolic cues requires greater language experience. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Growing sensitivity of maize to water scarcity under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Qingfeng; Chen, Xinping; Lobell, David B; Cui, Zhenling; Zhang, Yi; Yang, Haishun; Zhang, Fusuo

    2016-01-25

    Climate change can reduce crop yields and thereby threaten food security. The current measures used to adapt to climate change involve avoiding crops yield decrease, however, the limitations of such measures due to water and other resources scarcity have not been well understood. Here, we quantify how the sensitivity of maize to water availability has increased because of the shift toward longer-maturing varieties during last three decades in the Chinese Maize Belt (CMB). We report that modern, longer-maturing varieties have extended the growing period by an average of 8 days and have significantly offset the negative impacts of climate change on yield. However, the sensitivity of maize production to water has increased: maize yield across the CMB was 5% lower with rainfed than with irrigated maize in the 1980s and was 10% lower (and even >20% lower in some areas) in the 2000s because of both warming and the increased requirement for water by the longer-maturing varieties. Of the maize area in China, 40% now fails to receive the precipitation required to attain the full yield potential. Opportunities for water saving in maize systems exist, but water scarcity in China remains a serious problem.

  4. General Education Students' Changing Perceptions of Students with Special Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novak, Ashley D.; Bartelheim, Frederick J.

    2012-01-01

    Schools are becoming more inclusive and more students with special needs are accessing general education classrooms than ever. This action research study investigated general education students changing perceptions of students with special needs through the use of various interventions (e.g., classroom discussions, organized games, buddy reads,…

  5. Changes in bacterial radiation sensitivity due to deuterium substitution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strauss, A.; Weiss, H.

    1985-01-01

    The influence of deuterium substitution for hydrogen on radiation sensitivity was measured under various conditions for E. coli B/r irradiated by 450 kev electrons in single intense pulses. Cells were grown in a nutrient medium made from a deuterium oxide based solution. They were suspended in a D/sub 2/O based buffered saline and plated in thin aqueous layers on membrane filters and irradiated in 100% N/sub 2/ or 100% O/sub 2/. Comparisons were made to cells similarly plated and irradiated but grown instead in a water based nutrient medium and suspended in either a water based or a D/sub 2/O based buffered saline. For the conventionally grown cells, D/sub 2/O increased the radiation sensitivity in both gases by about 10%. For cells grown and suspended with D/sub 2/O based media, a 50% reduction of radiation sensitivity was found with both gas and an increased extrapolation number was observed. In this latter method, deuterium is more fully substituted for hydrogen in the molecular substrate of the cell. These cells were also irradiated over a temperature range of 2 0 C to 43 0 C after being suspended in deuterated ethanol. Speculations for the changes induced by the substitution are presented

  6. Blue Light Protects Against Temporal Frequency Sensitive Refractive Changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rucker, Frances; Britton, Stephanie; Spatcher, Molly; Hanowsky, Stephan

    2015-09-01

    Time spent outdoors is protective against myopia. The outdoors allows exposure to short-wavelength (blue light) rich sunlight, while indoor illuminants can be deficient at short-wavelengths. In the current experiment, we investigate the role of blue light, and temporal sensitivity, in the emmetropization response. Five-day-old chicks were exposed to sinusoidal luminance modulation of white light (with blue; N = 82) or yellow light (without blue; N = 83) at 80% contrast, at one of six temporal frequencies: 0, 0.2, 1, 2, 5, 10 Hz daily for 3 days. Mean illumination was 680 lux. Changes in ocular components and corneal curvature were measured. Refraction, eye length, and choroidal changes were dependent on the presence of blue light (P light, refraction did not change across frequencies (mean change -0.24 [diopters] D), while in the absence of blue light, we observed a hyperopic shift (>1 D) at high frequencies, and a myopic shift (>-0.6 D) at low frequencies. With blue light there was little difference in eye growth across frequencies (77 μm), while in the absence of blue light, eyes grew more at low temporal frequencies and less at high temporal frequencies (10 vs. 0.2 Hz: 145 μm; P light. Illuminants rich in blue light can protect against myopic eye growth when the eye is exposed to slow changes in luminance contrast as might occur with near work.

  7. Readiness for organisational change among general practice staff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christl, B; Harris, M F; Jayasinghe, U W; Proudfoot, J; Taggart, J; Tan, J

    2010-10-01

    Increasing demands on general practice to manage chronic disease may warrant organisational change at the practice level. Staff's readiness for organisational change can act as a facilitator or barrier to implementing interventions aimed at organisational change. To explore general practice staff readiness for organisational change and its association with staff and practices characteristics. This is a cross-sectional study of practices in three Australian states involved in a randomised control trial on the effectiveness of an intervention to enhance the role of non-general practitioner staff in chronic disease management. Readiness for organisational change, job satisfaction and practice characteristics were assessed using questionnaires. 502 staff from 58 practices completed questionnaires. Practice characteristics were not associated with staff readiness for change. A multilevel regression analysis showed statistically significant associations between staff readiness for organisational change (range 1 to 5) and having a non-clinical staff role (vs general practitioner; B=-0.315; 95% CI -0.47 to -0.16; pchange which addresses the mix of practice staff. Moderately low job satisfaction may be an opportunity for organisational change.

  8. Theoretical foundations for traditional and generalized sensitivity functions for nonlinear delay differential equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banks, H Thomas; Robbins, Danielle; Sutton, Karyn L

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we present new results for differentiability of delay systems with respect to initial conditions and delays. After motivating our results with a wide range of delay examples arising in biology applications, we further note the need for sensitivity functions (both traditional and generalized sensitivity functions), especially in control and estimation problems. We summarize general existence and uniqueness results before turning to our main results on differentiation with respect to delays, etc. Finally we discuss use of our results in the context of estimation problems.

  9. Sensitivity theory for general non-linear algebraic equations with constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oblow, E.M.

    1977-04-01

    Sensitivity theory has been developed to a high state of sophistication for applications involving solutions of the linear Boltzmann equation or approximations to it. The success of this theory in the field of radiation transport has prompted study of possible extensions of the method to more general systems of non-linear equations. Initial work in the U.S. and in Europe on the reactor fuel cycle shows that the sensitivity methodology works equally well for those non-linear problems studied to date. The general non-linear theory for algebraic equations is summarized and applied to a class of problems whose solutions are characterized by constrained extrema. Such equations form the basis of much work on energy systems modelling and the econometrics of power production and distribution. It is valuable to have a sensitivity theory available for these problem areas since it is difficult to repeatedly solve complex non-linear equations to find out the effects of alternative input assumptions or the uncertainties associated with predictions of system behavior. The sensitivity theory for a linear system of algebraic equations with constraints which can be solved using linear programming techniques is discussed. The role of the constraints in simplifying the problem so that sensitivity methodology can be applied is highlighted. The general non-linear method is summarized and applied to a non-linear programming problem in particular. Conclusions are drawn in about the applicability of the method for practical problems

  10. Association between high-sensitive troponin I and coronary artery calcification in a Danish general population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olson, Fredrik; Engborg, Jonathan; Grønhøj, Mette H.

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: High-sensitive troponin I (hs-TnI) is an individual predictor of future cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the relationship between hs-TnI and coronary artery calcification (CAC) as determined by computed tomography (CT) has not previously been investigated in a general population...

  11. Bias formulas for sensitivity analysis of unmeasured confounding for general outcomes, treatments, and confounders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderweele, Tyler J; Arah, Onyebuchi A

    2011-01-01

    Uncontrolled confounding in observational studies gives rise to biased effect estimates. Sensitivity analysis techniques can be useful in assessing the magnitude of these biases. In this paper, we use the potential outcomes framework to derive a general class of sensitivity-analysis formulas for outcomes, treatments, and measured and unmeasured confounding variables that may be categorical or continuous. We give results for additive, risk-ratio and odds-ratio scales. We show that these results encompass a number of more specific sensitivity-analysis methods in the statistics and epidemiology literature. The applicability, usefulness, and limits of the bias-adjustment formulas are discussed. We illustrate the sensitivity-analysis techniques that follow from our results by applying them to 3 different studies. The bias formulas are particularly simple and easy to use in settings in which the unmeasured confounding variable is binary with constant effect on the outcome across treatment levels.

  12. The prevalence of allergic contact sensitization in a general population in Tromsø, Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dotterud, Lars Kåre

    2007-09-01

    This study investigated the prevalence of contact sensitization in a general adult population and the relationship between the history of metal dermatitis and sensitization to metal allergens. A cross-sectional population study using patch tests and a questionnaire was conducted among adults in Tromsø, Northern Norway. A random sample of 830 participants aged 18-75 years were invited to participate in the patch testing and completed a 1-page self-administered questionnaire. Of the adults, 531 (64%) were actually TRUE tested (using a standardized, ready-to-apply patch test system) and completed the self-administered questionnaire about ear piercing, metal reactions, skin reactions to different allergens, atopic dermatitis, eczema, cooking equipment and diet. The study showed that nickel (19.2%; women 31.1% and men 5.0%), fragrance mix (3.4%) and cobalt (1.7%) were the most prevalent allergens causing contact sensitization. For all other allergens, less than 1.1% tested positive. Eighty-four (45.2%) subjects with a positive history of metal dermatitis had negative patch tests. Contact sensitization was found frequently in this general adult population, especially to nickel and perfumes with a predominance among females. An eczematous reaction caused by cheap earrings seemed to be the best indicator for metal sensitivity.

  13. Changes in anxiety sensitivity with pharmacotherapy for panic disorder

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Simon, N.M.; Otto, M.W.; Smits, J.A.J.; Nicolaou, D.C.; Reese, H.E.; Pollack, M.H.

    2004-01-01

    Fear of anxiety symptoms (anxiety sensitivity) has been implicated in the etiology and maintenance of panic disorder, and has been shown to improve with cognitive-behavioral treatment. The impact of pharmacotherapy on anxiety sensitivity is less clear. We administered the Anxiety Sensitivity Index

  14. Generalization of unconstrained reaching with hand-weight changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Xiang; Wang, Qining; Lu, Zhengchuan; Stevenson, Ian H; Körding, Konrad; Wei, Kunlin

    2013-01-01

    Studies of motor generalization usually perturb hand reaches by distorting visual feedback with virtual reality or by applying forces with a robotic manipulandum. Whereas such perturbations are useful for studying how the central nervous system adapts and generalizes to novel dynamics, they are rarely encountered in daily life. The most common perturbations that we experience are changes in the weights of objects that we hold. Here, we use a center-out, free-reaching task, in which we can manipulate the weight of a participant's hand to examine adaptation and generalization following naturalistic perturbations. In both trial-by-trial paradigms and block-based paradigms, we find that learning converges rapidly (on a timescale of approximately two trials), and this learning generalizes mostly to movements in nearby directions with a unimodal pattern. However, contrary to studies using more artificial perturbations, we find that the generalization has a strong global component. Furthermore, the generalization is enhanced with repeated exposure of the same perturbation. These results suggest that the familiarity of a perturbation is a major factor in movement generalization and that several theories of the neural control of movement, based on perturbations applied by robots or in virtual reality, may need to be extended by incorporating prior influence that is characterized by the familiarity of the perturbation.

  15. The hippocampal CA2 ensemble is sensitive to contextual change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wintzer, Marie E; Boehringer, Roman; Polygalov, Denis; McHugh, Thomas J

    2014-02-19

    Contextual learning involves associating cues with an environment and relating them to past experience. Previous data indicate functional specialization within the hippocampal circuit: the dentate gyrus (DG) is crucial for discriminating similar contexts, whereas CA3 is required for associative encoding and recall. Here, we used Arc/H1a catFISH imaging to address the contribution of the largely overlooked CA2 region to contextual learning by comparing ensemble codes across CA3, CA2, and CA1 in mice exposed to familiar, altered, and novel contexts. Further, to manipulate the quality of information arriving in CA2 we used two hippocampal mutant mouse lines, CA3-NR1 KOs and DG-NR1 KOs, that result in hippocampal CA3 neuronal activity that is uncoupled from the animal's sensory environment. Our data reveal largely coherent responses across the CA axis in control mice in purely novel or familiar contexts; however, in the mutant mice subject to these protocols the CA2 response becomes uncoupled from CA1 and CA3. Moreover, we show in wild-type mice that the CA2 ensemble is more sensitive than CA1 and CA3 to small changes in overall context. Our data suggest that CA2 may be tuned to remap in response to any conflict between stored and current experience.

  16. Long-term changes in the sensitivity of quadrupole mass spectrometers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanchard, W.R.; McCarthy, P.J.; Dylla, H.F.; LaMarche, P.H.; Simpkins, J.E.

    1986-02-01

    We routinely use quadrupole mass spectrometers (QMS) to monitor vacuum conditions, gas purity, and plasma-wall interactions in the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) at Princeton. Two QMS systems have been operating on TFTR continuously for a two-year period. Both QMS systems are absolutely calibrated at weekly intervals using a six-part standard gas mixture. The calibration procedure is based on the use of transfer standards (ion gauge and capacitance manometer) that are calibrated against a primary standard (spinning rotor gauge) on an external vacuum system. We have identified variations in the efficiency of the QMS ionizer and drifts in the sensitivity of the electron multiplier ion detector to be the major reasons for the observed changes in overall OMS sensitivity. Weekly variations in sensitivity greater than 100% have been observed following system bakeout at 150 0 C and with the use of rhenium filaments which were initially in the QMS ionizer. Operation of the QMS systems with tungsten filaments and at constant temperature has yielded more stable operation with weekly sensitivity changes generally being less than 10%. 7 refs., 7 figs

  17. Binaural sensitivity changes between cortical on and off responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahmen, Johannes C.; King, Andrew J.; Schnupp, Jan W. H.

    2011-01-01

    Neurons exhibiting on and off responses with different frequency tuning have previously been described in the primary auditory cortex (A1) of anesthetized and awake animals, but it is unknown whether other tuning properties, including sensitivity to binaural localization cues, also differ between on and off responses. We measured the sensitivity of A1 neurons in anesthetized ferrets to 1) interaural level differences (ILDs), using unmodulated broadband noise with varying ILDs and average binaural levels, and 2) interaural time delays (ITDs), using sinusoidally amplitude-modulated broadband noise with varying envelope ITDs. We also assessed fine-structure ITD sensitivity and frequency tuning, using pure-tone stimuli. Neurons most commonly responded to stimulus onset only, but purely off responses and on-off responses were also recorded. Of the units exhibiting significant binaural sensitivity nearly one-quarter showed binaural sensitivity in both on and off responses, but in almost all (∼97%) of these units the binaural tuning of the on responses differed significantly from that seen in the off responses. Moreover, averaged, normalized ILD and ITD tuning curves calculated from all units showing significant sensitivity to binaural cues indicated that on and off responses displayed different sensitivity patterns across the population. A principal component analysis of ITD response functions suggested a continuous cortical distribution of binaural sensitivity, rather than discrete response classes. Rather than reflecting a release from inhibition without any functional significance, we propose that binaural off responses may be important to cortical encoding of sound-source location. PMID:21562191

  18. Distrust As a Disease Avoidance Strategy: Individual Differences in Disgust Sensitivity Regulate Generalized Social Trust.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aarøe, Lene; Osmundsen, Mathias; Petersen, Michael Bang

    2016-01-01

    Throughout human evolutionary history, cooperative contact with others has been fundamental for human survival. At the same time, social contact has been a source of threats. In this article, we focus on one particular viable threat, communicable disease, and investigate how motivations to avoid pathogens influence people's propensity to interact and cooperate with others, as measured by individual differences in generalized social trust. While extant studies on pathogen avoidance have argued that such motivations should prompt people to avoid interactions with outgroups specifically, we argue that these motivations should prompt people to avoid others more broadly. Empirically, we utilize two convenience samples and a large nationally representative sample of US citizens to demonstrate the existence of a robust and replicable effect of individual differences in pathogen disgust sensitivity on generalized social trust. We furthermore compare the effects of pathogen disgust sensitivity on generalized social trust and outgroup prejudice and explore whether generalized social trust to some extent constitutes a pathway between pathogen avoidance motivations and prejudice.

  19. Distrust As a Disease Avoidance Strategy: Individual Differences in Disgust Sensitivity Regulate Generalized Social Trust

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aarøe, Lene; Osmundsen, Mathias; Petersen, Michael Bang

    2016-01-01

    pathogens influence people's propensity to interact and cooperate with others, as measured by individual differences in generalized social trust. While extant studies on pathogen avoidance have argued that such motivations should prompt people to avoid interactions with outgroups specifically, we argue...... social trust. We furthermore compare the effects of pathogen disgust sensitivity on generalized social trust and outgroup prejudice and explore whether generalized social trust to some extent constitutes a pathway between pathogen avoidance motivations and prejudice.......Throughout human evolutionary history, cooperative contact with others has been fundamental for human survival. At the same time, social contact has been a source of threats. In this article, we focus on one particular viable threat, communicable disease, and investigate how motivations to avoid...

  20. Short ensembles: An Efficient Method for Discerning Climate-relevant Sensitivities in Atmospheric General Circulation Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wan, Hui; Rasch, Philip J.; Zhang, Kai; Qian, Yun; Yan, Huiping; Zhao, Chun

    2014-09-08

    This paper explores the feasibility of an experimentation strategy for investigating sensitivities in fast components of atmospheric general circulation models. The basic idea is to replace the traditional serial-in-time long-term climate integrations by representative ensembles of shorter simulations. The key advantage of the proposed method lies in its efficiency: since fewer days of simulation are needed, the computational cost is less, and because individual realizations are independent and can be integrated simultaneously, the new dimension of parallelism can dramatically reduce the turnaround time in benchmark tests, sensitivities studies, and model tuning exercises. The strategy is not appropriate for exploring sensitivity of all model features, but it is very effective in many situations. Two examples are presented using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5. The first example demonstrates that the method is capable of characterizing the model cloud and precipitation sensitivity to time step length. A nudging technique is also applied to an additional set of simulations to help understand the contribution of physics-dynamics interaction to the detected time step sensitivity. In the second example, multiple empirical parameters related to cloud microphysics and aerosol lifecycle are perturbed simultaneously in order to explore which parameters have the largest impact on the simulated global mean top-of-atmosphere radiation balance. Results show that in both examples, short ensembles are able to correctly reproduce the main signals of model sensitivities revealed by traditional long-term climate simulations for fast processes in the climate system. The efficiency of the ensemble method makes it particularly useful for the development of high-resolution, costly and complex climate models.

  1. Short ensembles: an efficient method for discerning climate-relevant sensitivities in atmospheric general circulation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Wan

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the feasibility of an experimentation strategy for investigating sensitivities in fast components of atmospheric general circulation models. The basic idea is to replace the traditional serial-in-time long-term climate integrations by representative ensembles of shorter simulations. The key advantage of the proposed method lies in its efficiency: since fewer days of simulation are needed, the computational cost is less, and because individual realizations are independent and can be integrated simultaneously, the new dimension of parallelism can dramatically reduce the turnaround time in benchmark tests, sensitivities studies, and model tuning exercises. The strategy is not appropriate for exploring sensitivity of all model features, but it is very effective in many situations. Two examples are presented using the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5. In the first example, the method is used to characterize sensitivities of the simulated clouds to time-step length. Results show that 3-day ensembles of 20 to 50 members are sufficient to reproduce the main signals revealed by traditional 5-year simulations. A nudging technique is applied to an additional set of simulations to help understand the contribution of physics–dynamics interaction to the detected time-step sensitivity. In the second example, multiple empirical parameters related to cloud microphysics and aerosol life cycle are perturbed simultaneously in order to find out which parameters have the largest impact on the simulated global mean top-of-atmosphere radiation balance. It turns out that 12-member ensembles of 10-day simulations are able to reveal the same sensitivities as seen in 4-year simulations performed in a previous study. In both cases, the ensemble method reduces the total computational time by a factor of about 15, and the turnaround time by a factor of several hundred. The efficiency of the method makes it particularly useful for the development of

  2. Changes in attachment security and mindfulness as predictors of changes in depression and general anxiety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martin, David; Gillath, Omri; Deboeck, Pascal; Lang, K.M.; Kerr, Barb

    2017-01-01

    Two studies examined the role short-term changes in adult attachment and mindfulness play in depression and general anxiety. Study 1, using a sample of college students (n = 121) who were not engaged in any clinical intervention, showed that changes in attachment anxiety and security, but not in

  3. General Chemistry Students' Understanding of Climate Change and the Chemistry Related to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Versprille, Ashley N.; Towns, Marcy H.

    2015-01-01

    While much is known about secondary students' perspectives of climate change, rather less is known about undergraduate students' perspectives. The purpose of this study is to investigate general chemistry students' understanding of the chemistry underlying climate change. Findings that emerged from the analysis of the 24 interviews indicate that…

  4. Sensitivity of tropical carbon to climate change constrained by carbon dioxide variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Peter M; Pearson, David; Booth, Ben B; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Huntingford, Chris; Jones, Chris D; Luke, Catherine M

    2013-02-21

    The release of carbon from tropical forests may exacerbate future climate change, but the magnitude of the effect in climate models remains uncertain. Coupled climate-carbon-cycle models generally agree that carbon storage on land will increase as a result of the simultaneous enhancement of plant photosynthesis and water use efficiency under higher atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, but will decrease owing to higher soil and plant respiration rates associated with warming temperatures. At present, the balance between these effects varies markedly among coupled climate-carbon-cycle models, leading to a range of 330 gigatonnes in the projected change in the amount of carbon stored on tropical land by 2100. Explanations for this large uncertainty include differences in the predicted change in rainfall in Amazonia and variations in the responses of alternative vegetation models to warming. Here we identify an emergent linear relationship, across an ensemble of models, between the sensitivity of tropical land carbon storage to warming and the sensitivity of the annual growth rate of atmospheric CO(2) to tropical temperature anomalies. Combined with contemporary observations of atmospheric CO(2) concentration and tropical temperature, this relationship provides a tight constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to climate change. We estimate that over tropical land from latitude 30° north to 30° south, warming alone will release 53 ± 17 gigatonnes of carbon per kelvin. Compared with the unconstrained ensemble of climate-carbon-cycle projections, this indicates a much lower risk of Amazon forest dieback under CO(2)-induced climate change if CO(2) fertilization effects are as large as suggested by current models. Our study, however, also implies greater certainty that carbon will be lost from tropical land if warming arises from reductions in aerosols or increases in other greenhouse gases.

  5. Longitudinal Changes in Behavioral Approach System Sensitivity and Brain Structures Involved in Reward Processing during Adolescence

    OpenAIRE

    Urošević, Snežana; Collins, Paul; Muetzel, Ryan; Lim, Kelvin; Luciana, Monica

    2012-01-01

    Adolescence is a period of radical normative changes and increased risk for substance use, mood disorders, and physical injury. Researchers have proposed that increases in reward sensitivity, i.e., sensitivity of the behavioral approach system (BAS), and/or increases in reactivity to all emotional stimuli (i.e., reward and threat sensitivities) lead to these phenomena. The present study is the first longitudinal investigation of changes in reward (i.e., BAS) sensitivity in 9 to 23-year-olds a...

  6. Application of generalized estimating equations to a study in vitro of radiation sensitivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cologne, J.B.; Carter, R.L.; Fujita, Shoichiro; Ban, Sadayuki.

    1993-08-01

    We describes an application of the generalized estimating equation (GEE) method (Liang K-Y, Zeger SL: Longitudinal data analysis using generalized linear models. Biometrika 73:13-22, 1986) for regression analyses of correlated Poisson data. As an alternative to the use of an arbitrarily chosen working correlation matrix, we demonstrate the use of GEE with a reasonable model for the true covariance structure among repeated observations within individuals. We show that, under such a split-plot design with large clusters, the asymptotic relative efficiency of GEE with simple (independence or exchangeable) working correlation matrices is rather low. We also illustrate the use of GEE with an empirically estimated model for overdispersion in a large study of radiation sensitivity where cluster size is small and a simple working correlation structure is sufficient. We conclude by summarizing issues and needs for further work concerning efficiency of the GEE parameter estimates in practice. (author)

  7. Change of Taste Sensitivity of Clove Cigarette Smokers in Medan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marlina Simamora

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Tongue has taste buds that contain taste receptor which affected by many factors, including smoking habit. Objective: To analyze the differences of sweet and bitter taste sensitivity in the pedicab driver clove cigarette smokers compared to non-smokers in Medan Padang Bulan. Methods: This study was conducted by placing the sweet taste strips and bitter taste strips on four taste receptors of the tongue, with increasing solution concentration in 74 subjects. This was a cross sectional study on pedicab driver population in Medan Padang Bulan. Results: There were differences between clove cigarette smokers and non-smokers on sweet taste examination (p<0.005. There was a difference between clove cigarette smokers and non-smokers on examination bitter taste receptors (p<0.005. On the clove cigarette smokers, there was no significant difference between sweet taste and bitter taste on the receptors itself. Conclusion: Non-smokers are more sensitive to sweet taste than the clove cigarette smokers. Bitter taste sensitivity is greater in cigarettes smokers than in non-smokers. Taste receptors on all location of the tongue could taste sweet and bitter substances, but a certain location of taste receptors were more sensitive compared to others.

  8. Sensitive change detection for remote sensing monitoring of nuclear treaties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Canty, Morton J.; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Schlittenhardt, Jörg

    2005-01-01

    change is a commonplace application in remote sensing, the detection of anthropogenic changes associated with nuclear activities, whether declared or clandestine, presents a difficult challenge. It is necessary to discriminate subtle, often weak signals of interest on a background of irrelevant...... in multispectral, bitemporal image data: New approaches to change detection studies, Remote Sens. Environ. 64(1), 1998, pp. 1--19. Nielsen, A. A., Iteratively re-weighted multivariate alteration detection in multi- and hyperspectral data, to be published....

  9. Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Katrina E.; Urrego Blanco, Jorge R.; Jonko, Alexandra; Bohn, Theodore J.; Atchley, Adam L.; Urban, Nathan M.; Middleton, Richard S.

    2018-01-01

    The Colorado River Basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology, and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent, and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. We combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube Sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach. We find that snow-dominated regions are much more sensitive to uncertainties in VIC parameters. Although baseflow and runoff changes respond to parameters used in previous sensitivity studies, we discover new key parameter sensitivities. For instance, changes in runoff and evapotranspiration are sensitive to albedo, while changes in snow water equivalent are sensitive to canopy fraction and Leaf Area Index (LAI) in the VIC model. It is critical for improved modeling to narrow uncertainty in these parameters through improved observations and field studies. This is important because LAI and albedo are anticipated to change under future climate and narrowing uncertainty is paramount to advance our application of models such as VIC for water resource management.

  10. Sensitivity of climate change mitigation estimates to assumptions about technical change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowlatabadi, H.

    1998-01-01

    With greater certainty in anthropogenic influence on observed changes in climate there is increasing pressure for agreements to control emissions of greenhouse gases ([HOUGHTON]). While it is difficult to assess the appropriate level of mitigation, it has been argued that flexibility in meeting emission targets offers significant economic savings. Such flexibility can be exercised in terms of timing of mitigation (i.e. delay) or geographic location of the intervention (e.g. permit trading and Joint-Implementation). Much of this insight is based on standard models of technical change in energy supply and demand. However, standard model formulations rarely consider: (i) a link between the pattern of technical change and policy interventions; (ii) economies of learning; and (iii) technical progress in discovery and recovery of oil and gas. While there is evidence to support the importance of these factors in historic patterns of technical progress, the data necessary to calibrate internally consistent economic models of these phenomena have not been available. In this paper simple representations of endogenous and induced technical change have been used to explore the sensitivity of mitigation cost estimates to how technical change is represented in energy economics models. The scenarios involve control of CO 2 emissions to limit its concentration to no more than 550 ppm(v), starting in the year 2000, and delayed to 2025. This sensitivity analysis has revealed four robust insights: (i) If endogenous technical change is assumed, expected business as usual emissions are higher than otherwise estimated - nevertheless, while 25% greater CO 2 control is required for meeting the CO 2 concentration target, the cost of mitigation is 40% lower; (ii) If technical progress in oil and gas discovery and recovery is assumed, energy use and CO 2 emissions increase by 75% and 65%, respectively above the standard estimates; (iii) If the economies of learning exhibited in various

  11. Longitudinal Changes in Behavioral Approach System Sensitivity and Brain Structures Involved in Reward Processing during Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urosevic, Snezana; Collins, Paul; Muetzel, Ryan; Lim, Kelvin; Luciana, Monica

    2012-01-01

    Adolescence is a period of radical normative changes and increased risk for substance use, mood disorders, and physical injury. Researchers have proposed that increases in reward sensitivity (i.e., sensitivity of the behavioral approach system [BAS]) and/or increases in reactivity to all emotional stimuli (i.e., reward and threat sensitivities)…

  12. Measuring Motivation: Change Talk and Counter-Change Talk in Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Generalized Anxiety

    OpenAIRE

    Lombardi, Diana R.; Button, Melissa; Westra, Henny A.

    2013-01-01

    How clients talk about change early in treatment has been found to be a potent predictor of their subsequent treatment success. Studies examining such client motivational language (arguments for and against change) have typically been conducted in the context of motivational interviewing for addictions. The present study examined the capacity of client motivational language to predict treatment outcomes in the context of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for generalized anxiety. Client early...

  13. Polarization Smoothing Generalized MUSIC Algorithm with Polarization Sensitive Array for Low Angle Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Jun; Nie, Zaiping

    2018-05-12

    Direction of Arrival (DOA) estimation of low-altitude targets is difficult due to the multipath coherent interference from the ground reflection image of the targets, especially for very high frequency (VHF) radars, which have antennae that are severely restricted in terms of aperture and height. The polarization smoothing generalized multiple signal classification (MUSIC) algorithm, which combines polarization smoothing and generalized MUSIC algorithm for polarization sensitive arrays (PSAs), was proposed to solve this problem in this paper. Firstly, the polarization smoothing pre-processing was exploited to eliminate the coherence between the direct and the specular signals. Secondly, we constructed the generalized MUSIC algorithm for low angle estimation. Finally, based on the geometry information of the symmetry multipath model, the proposed algorithm was introduced to convert the two-dimensional searching into one-dimensional searching, thus reducing the computational burden. Numerical results were provided to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, showing that the proposed algorithm has significantly improved angle estimation performance in the low-angle area compared with the available methods, especially when the grazing angle is near zero.

  14. Changing the Known; Knowing the Changing: General Systems Theory Paradigms as Ways to Study Complex Change and Complex Thoughts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinnott, Jan D.

    This paper discusses the utility of a general systems theory paradigm for psychology. The paradigm can be used for conceptualizing such complex phenomena as change over time in living systems, person-society interactions, and the epistemology of multiply determined changes. Consideration is also given to applications of the approach to…

  15. Large diurnal temperature range increases bird sensitivity to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Briga, Michael; Verhulst, Simon

    2015-01-01

    Climate variability is changing on multiple temporal scales, and little is known of the consequences of increases in short-term variability, particularly in endotherms. Using mortality data with high temporal resolution of zebra finches living in large outdoor aviaries (5 years, 359.220 bird-days),

  16. Measuring motivation: change talk and counter-change talk in cognitive behavioral therapy for generalized anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardi, Diana R; Button, Melissa L; Westra, Henny A

    2014-01-01

    How clients talk about change early in treatment has been found to be a potent predictor of their subsequent treatment success. Studies examining such client motivational language (arguments for and against change) have typically been conducted in the context of motivational interviewing for addictions. This study examined the capacity of client motivational language to predict treatment outcomes in the context of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for generalized anxiety. Client early in-session statements against change (counter-change talk) were found to be robust predictors of post-treatment worry scores and differentiated treatment responders from nonresponders. Moreover, client motivational language predicted outcomes beyond initial symptom severity and self-report measures of motivation. These results strongly support the relevance of client motivational language outcomes in CBT and provide a foundation for advancing research on motivation for change in a CBT context.

  17. Neural correlates of behavioural olfactory sensitivity changes seasonally in European starlings.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geert De Groof

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Possibly due to the small size of the olfactory bulb (OB as compared to rodents, it was generally believed that songbirds lack a well-developed sense of smell. This belief was recently revised by several studies showing that various bird species, including passerines, use olfaction in many respects of life. During courtship and nest building, male European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris incorporate aromatic herbs that are rich in volatile compounds (e.g., milfoil, Achillea millefolium into the nests and they use olfactory cues to identify these plants. Interestingly, European starlings show seasonal differences in their ability to respond to odour cues: odour sensitivity peaks during nest-building in the spring, but is almost non-existent during the non-breeding season.This study used repeated in vivo Manganese-enhanced MRI to quantify for the first time possible seasonal changes in the anatomy and activity of the OB in starling brains. We demonstrated that the OB of the starling exhibits a functional seasonal plasticity of certain plant odour specificity and that the OB is only able to detect milfoil odour during the breeding season. Volumetric analysis showed that this seasonal change in activity is not linked to a change in OB volume. By subsequently experimentally elevating testosterone (T in half of the males during the non-breeding season we showed that the OB volume was increased compared to controls.By investigating the neural substrate of seasonal olfactory sensitivity changes we show that the starlings' OB loses its ability during the non-breeding season to detect a natural odour of a plant preferred as green nest material by male starlings. We found that testosterone, applied during the non-breeding season, does not restore the discriminatory ability of the OB but has an influence on its size.

  18. Sensitive Indicators of Zonal Stipa Species to Changing Temperature and Precipitation in Inner Mongolia Grassland, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Xiaomin; Zhou, Guangsheng; Wang, Yuhui; Song, Xiliang

    2016-01-01

    Climate change often induces shifts in plant functional traits. However, knowledge related to sensitivity of different functional traits and sensitive indicator representing plant growth under hydrothermal change remains unclear. Inner Mongolia grassland is predicted to be one of the terrestrial ecosystems which are most vulnerable to climate change. In this study, we analyzed the response of four zonal Stipa species (S. baicalensis, S. grandis, S. breviflora, and S. bungeana) from Inner Mongolia grassland to changing temperature (control, increased 1.5, 2, 4, and 6°C), precipitation (decreased 30 and 15%, control, increased 15 and 30%) and their combined effects via climate control chambers. The relative change of functional traits in the unit of temperature and precipitation change was regarded as sensitivity coefficient and sensitive indicators were examined by pathway analysis. We found that sensitivity of the four Stipa species to changing temperature and precipitation could be ranked as follows: S. bungeana > S. grandis > S. breviflora > S. baicalensis. In particular, changes in leaf area, specific leaf area and root/shoot ratio could account for 86% of the changes in plant biomass in the four Stipa species. Also these three measurements were more sensitive to hydrothermal changes than the other functional traits. These three functional indicators reflected the combination of plant production capacity (leaf area), adaptive strategy (root/shoot ratio), instantaneous environmental effects (specific leaf area), and cumulative environmental effects (leaf area and root/shoot ratio). Thus, leaf area, specific leaf area and root/shoot ratio were chosen as sensitive indicators in response to changing temperature and precipitation for Stipa species. These results could provide the basis for predicting the influence of climate change on Inner Mongolia grassland based on the magnitude of changes in sensitive indicators. PMID:26904048

  19. Ocean Biological Pump Sensitivities and Implications for Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanou, Anastasia

    2013-01-01

    The ocean is one of the principal reservoirs of CO2, a greenhouse gas, and therefore plays a crucial role in regulating Earth's climate. Currently, the ocean sequesters about a third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, mitigating the human impact on climate. At the same time, the deeper ocean represents the largest carbon pool in the Earth System and processes that describe the transfer of carbon from the surface of the ocean to depth are intimately linked to the effectiveness of carbon sequestration.The ocean biological pump (OBP), which involves several biogeochemical processes, is a major pathway for transfer of carbon from the surface mixed layer into the ocean interior. About 75 of the carbon vertical gradient is due to the carbon pump with only 25 attributed to the solubility pump. However, the relative importance and role of the two pumps is poorly constrained. OBP is further divided to the organic carbon pump (soft tissue pump) and the carbonate pump, with the former exporting about 10 times more carbon than the latter through processes like remineralization.Major uncertainties about OBP, and hence in the carbon uptake and sequestration, stem from uncertainties in processes involved in OBP such as particulate organicinorganic carbon sinkingsettling, remineralization, microbial degradation of DOC and uptakegrowth rate changes of the ocean biology. The deep ocean is a major sink of atmospheric CO2 in scales of hundreds to thousands of years, but how the export efficiency (i.e. the fraction of total carbon fixation at the surface that is transported at depth) is affected by climate change remains largely undetermined. These processes affect the ocean chemistry (alkalinity, pH, DIC, particulate and dissolved organic carbon) as well as the ecology (biodiversity, functional groups and their interactions) in the ocean. It is important to have a rigorous, quantitative understanding of the uncertainties involved in the observational measurements, the models and the

  20. The Southern Oscillation in a coupled GCM: Implications for climate sensitivity and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meehl, G.A.

    1990-01-01

    Results are presented from a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation climate model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The atmospheric part of the coupled model is a global spectral (R15, 4.5 degree latitude by 7.5 degree longitude, 9 layers in the vertical) general circulation model. The ocean is coarse-grid (5 degree latitude by 5 degree longitude, 4 layers in the vertical) global general circulation model. The coupled model includes a simple thermodynamic sea-ice model. Due mainly to inherent limitations in the ocean model, the coupled model simulates sea surface temperatures that are too low in the tropics and too high in the extratropics in the mean. In spite of these limitations, the coupled model simulates active interannual variability of the global climate system involving signals in the tropical Pacific that resemble, in some respects, the observed Southern Oscillation. These signals in the tropics are associated with teleconnections to the extratropics of both hemispheres. The implications of this model-simulated interannual variability of the coupled system relating to climate sensitivity and climate change due to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide are discussed

  1. The Southern Oscillation in a coupled GCM: Implications for climate sensitivity and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meehl, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    Results are presented from a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation climate model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The atmospheric part of the coupled model is a global spectral (R15, 4.5 degree latitude by 7.5 degree longitude, 9 layers in the vertical) general circulation model. The ocean is coarse-grid (5 degree latitude by 5 degree longitude, 4 layers in the vertical) global general circulation model. The coupled model includes a simple thermodynamic sea-ice model. Due mainly to inherent limitations in the ocean model, the coupled model simulates sea surface temperatures that are too low in the tropics and too high in the extratropics in the mean. In spite of these limitations, the coupled model simulates active interannual variability of the global climate system involving signals in the tropical Pacific that resemble, in some respects, the observed Southern Oscillation. These signals in the tropics are associated with teleconnections to the extratropics of both hemispheres. The implications of this model-simulated interannual variability of the coupled system relating to climate sensitivity and climate change due to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide are discussed. 25 refs.; 9 figs

  2. Application of generalized perturbation theory to sensitivity analysis in boron neutron capture therapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Vanessa S. [Universidade Federal Fluminense (EEIMVR/UFF-RJ), Volta Redonda, RJ (Brazil). Escola de Engenharia Industrial e Metalurgica. Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Modelagem Computacional em Ciencia e Tecnologia; Silva, Fernando C.; Silva, Ademir X., E-mail: fernando@con.ufrj.b, E-mail: ademir@con.ufrj.b [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao de Engenharia (PEN/COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Nuclear; Alvarez, Gustavo B. [Universidade Federal Fluminense (EEIMVR/UFF-RJ), Volta Redonda, RJ (Brazil). Escola de Engenharia Industrial e Metalurgica. Dept. de Ciencias Exatas

    2011-07-01

    Boron neutron capture therapy - BNCT - is a binary cancer treatment used in brain tumors. The tumor is loaded with a boron compound and subsequently irradiated by thermal neutrons. The therapy is based on the {sup 10}B (n, {alpha}) {sup 7}Li nuclear reaction, which emits two types of high-energy particles, {alpha} particle and the {sup 7}Li nuclei. The total kinetic energy released in this nuclear reaction, when deposited in the tumor region, destroys the cancer cells. Since the success of the BNCT is linked to the different selectivity between the tumor and healthy tissue, it is necessary to carry out a sensitivity analysis to determinate the boron concentration. Computational simulations are very important in this context because they help in the treatment planning by calculating the lowest effective absorbed dose rate to reduce the damage to healthy tissue. The objective of this paper is to present a deterministic method based on generalized perturbation theory (GPT) to perform sensitivity analysis with respect to the {sup 10}B concentration and to estimate the absorbed dose rate by patients undergoing this therapy. The advantage of the method is a significant reduction in computational time required to perform these calculations. To simulate the neutron flux in all brain regions, the method relies on a two-dimensional neutron transport equation whose spatial, angular and energy variables are discretized by the diamond difference method, the discrete ordinate method and multigroup formulation, respectively. The results obtained through GPT are consistent with those obtained using other methods, demonstrating the efficacy of the proposed method. (author)

  3. Application of generalized perturbation theory to sensitivity analysis in boron neutron capture therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia, Vanessa S.; Silva, Fernando C.; Silva, Ademir X.; Alvarez, Gustavo B.

    2011-01-01

    Boron neutron capture therapy - BNCT - is a binary cancer treatment used in brain tumors. The tumor is loaded with a boron compound and subsequently irradiated by thermal neutrons. The therapy is based on the 10 B (n, α) 7 Li nuclear reaction, which emits two types of high-energy particles, α particle and the 7 Li nuclei. The total kinetic energy released in this nuclear reaction, when deposited in the tumor region, destroys the cancer cells. Since the success of the BNCT is linked to the different selectivity between the tumor and healthy tissue, it is necessary to carry out a sensitivity analysis to determinate the boron concentration. Computational simulations are very important in this context because they help in the treatment planning by calculating the lowest effective absorbed dose rate to reduce the damage to healthy tissue. The objective of this paper is to present a deterministic method based on generalized perturbation theory (GPT) to perform sensitivity analysis with respect to the 10 B concentration and to estimate the absorbed dose rate by patients undergoing this therapy. The advantage of the method is a significant reduction in computational time required to perform these calculations. To simulate the neutron flux in all brain regions, the method relies on a two-dimensional neutron transport equation whose spatial, angular and energy variables are discretized by the diamond difference method, the discrete ordinate method and multigroup formulation, respectively. The results obtained through GPT are consistent with those obtained using other methods, demonstrating the efficacy of the proposed method. (author)

  4. A generalized adjoint framework for sensitivity and global error estimation in time-dependent nuclear reactor simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stripling, H.F.; Anitescu, M.; Adams, M.L.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► We develop an abstract framework for computing the adjoint to the neutron/nuclide burnup equations posed as a system of differential algebraic equations. ► We validate use of the adjoint for computing both sensitivity to uncertain inputs and for estimating global time discretization error. ► Flexibility of the framework is leveraged to add heat transfer physics and compute its adjoint without a reformulation of the adjoint system. ► Such flexibility is crucial for high performance computing applications. -- Abstract: We develop a general framework for computing the adjoint variable to nuclear engineering problems governed by a set of differential–algebraic equations (DAEs). The nuclear engineering community has a rich history of developing and applying adjoints for sensitivity calculations; many such formulations, however, are specific to a certain set of equations, variables, or solution techniques. Any change or addition to the physics model would require a reformulation of the adjoint problem and substantial difficulties in its software implementation. In this work we propose an abstract framework that allows for the modification and expansion of the governing equations, leverages the existing theory of adjoint formulation for DAEs, and results in adjoint equations that can be used to efficiently compute sensitivities for parametric uncertainty quantification. Moreover, as we justify theoretically and demonstrate numerically, the same framework can be used to estimate global time discretization error. We first motivate the framework and show that the coupled Bateman and transport equations, which govern the time-dependent neutronic behavior of a nuclear reactor, may be formulated as a DAE system with a power constraint. We then use a variational approach to develop the parameter-dependent adjoint framework and apply existing theory to give formulations for sensitivity and global time discretization error estimates using the adjoint

  5. Changes in Alpha Frequency and Power of the Electroencephalogram during Volatile-Based General Anesthesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darren Hight

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Oscillations in the electroencephalogram (EEG at the alpha frequency (8–12 Hz are thought to be ubiquitous during surgical anesthesia, but the details of how this oscillation responds to ongoing changes in volatile anesthetic concentration have not been well characterized. It is not known how often alpha oscillations are absent in the clinical context, how sensitively alpha frequency and power respond to changes in anesthetic concentration, and what effect increased age has on alpha frequency. Bipolar EEG was recorded frontally from 305 patients undergoing surgery with sevoflurane or desflurane providing general anesthesia. A new method of detecting the presence of alpha oscillations based on the stability of the rate of change of the peak frequency in the alpha range was developed. Linear concentration-response curves were fitted to assess the sensitivity of alpha power and frequency measures to changing levels of anesthesia. Alpha oscillations were seen to be inexplicably absent in around 4% of patients. Maximal alpha power increased with increasing volatile anesthetic concentrations in half of the patients, and decreased in the remaining patients. Alpha frequency decreased with increasing anesthetic concentrations in near to 90% of patients. Increasing age was associated with decreased sensitivity to volatile anesthesia concentrations, and with decreased alpha frequency, which sometimes transitioned into the theta range (5–7 Hz. While peak alpha frequency shows a consistent slowing to increasing volatile concentrations, the peak power of the oscillation does not, suggesting that frequency might be more informative of depth of anesthesia than traditional power based measures during volatile-based anesthesia. The alpha oscillation becomes slower with increasing age, even when the decreased anesthetic needs of older patients were taken into account.

  6. A general technique for characterizing x-ray position sensitive arrays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dufresne, E.; Bruning, R.; Sutton, M.; Stephenson, G.B.

    1994-03-01

    We present a general statistical technique for characterizing x-ray sensitive linear diode arrays and CCD arrays. We apply this technique to characterize the response of a linear diode array, Princeton Instrument model X-PDA, and a virtual phase CCD array, TI 4849, to direct illumination by x-rays. We find that the response of the linear array is linearly proportional to the incident intensity and uniform over its length to within 2 %. Its quantum efficiency is 38 % for Cu K α x-rays. The resolution function is evaluated from the spatial autocorrelation function and falls to 10 % of its peak value after one pixel. On the other hand, the response of the CCD detecting system to direct x-ray exposure is non-linear. To properly quantify the scattered x-rays, one must correct for the non- linearity. The resolution is two pixels along the serial transfer direction. We characterize the noise of the CCD and propose a model that takes into account the non-linearity and the resolution function to estimate the quantum efficiency of the detector. The quantum efficiency is 20 %

  7. Contributions to sensitivity analysis and generalized discriminant analysis; Contributions a l'analyse de sensibilite et a l'analyse discriminante generalisee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacques, J

    2005-12-15

    Two topics are studied in this thesis: sensitivity analysis and generalized discriminant analysis. Global sensitivity analysis of a mathematical model studies how the output variables of this last react to variations of its inputs. The methods based on the study of the variance quantify the part of variance of the response of the model due to each input variable and each subset of input variables. The first subject of this thesis is the impact of a model uncertainty on results of a sensitivity analysis. Two particular forms of uncertainty are studied: that due to a change of the model of reference, and that due to the use of a simplified model with the place of the model of reference. A second problem was studied during this thesis, that of models with correlated inputs. Indeed, classical sensitivity indices not having significance (from an interpretation point of view) in the presence of correlation of the inputs, we propose a multidimensional approach consisting in expressing the sensitivity of the output of the model to groups of correlated variables. Applications in the field of nuclear engineering illustrate this work. Generalized discriminant analysis consists in classifying the individuals of a test sample in groups, by using information contained in a training sample, when these two samples do not come from the same population. This work extends existing methods in a Gaussian context to the case of binary data. An application in public health illustrates the utility of generalized discrimination models thus defined. (author)

  8. Contributions to sensitivity analysis and generalized discriminant analysis; Contributions a l'analyse de sensibilite et a l'analyse discriminante generalisee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacques, J

    2005-12-15

    Two topics are studied in this thesis: sensitivity analysis and generalized discriminant analysis. Global sensitivity analysis of a mathematical model studies how the output variables of this last react to variations of its inputs. The methods based on the study of the variance quantify the part of variance of the response of the model due to each input variable and each subset of input variables. The first subject of this thesis is the impact of a model uncertainty on results of a sensitivity analysis. Two particular forms of uncertainty are studied: that due to a change of the model of reference, and that due to the use of a simplified model with the place of the model of reference. A second problem was studied during this thesis, that of models with correlated inputs. Indeed, classical sensitivity indices not having significance (from an interpretation point of view) in the presence of correlation of the inputs, we propose a multidimensional approach consisting in expressing the sensitivity of the output of the model to groups of correlated variables. Applications in the field of nuclear engineering illustrate this work. Generalized discriminant analysis consists in classifying the individuals of a test sample in groups, by using information contained in a training sample, when these two samples do not come from the same population. This work extends existing methods in a Gaussian context to the case of binary data. An application in public health illustrates the utility of generalized discrimination models thus defined. (author)

  9. A sensitive slope: estimating landscape patterns of forest resilience in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jill F. Johnstone; Eliot J.B. McIntire; Eric J. Pedersen; Gregory King; Michael J.F. Pisaric

    2010-01-01

    Changes in Earth's environment are expected to stimulate changes in the composition and structure of ecosystems, but it is still unclear how the dynamics of these responses will play out over time. In long-lived forest systems, communities of established individuals may be resistant to respond to directional climate change, but may be highly sensitive to climate...

  10. Drought sensitivity changes over the last century at the North American savanna-forest boundary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heilman, K.; McLachlan, J. S.

    2017-12-01

    Future environmental changes can affect the sensitivity of tree growth to climate. Theses changes are of particular concern at biome boundaries where tree distribution could shift as a result of changes in both drought and drought sensitivity. One such region is the North American savanna-forest boundary, where increased CO2 and droughts could alter savanna and forest ecosystem distributions in two contrasting ways: 1). More severe droughts may increase drought sensitivity, favoring open savanna ecosystems or, 2). Increases in water use efficiency resulting from higher atmospheric CO2 may decrease drought sensitivity, promoting forest expansion. This study sought to understand whether the past 100 years of climate and CO2 changes have impacted regional tree growth-climate sensitivity. To test for these climate sensitivity changes, we measured the sensitivity of Quercus spp. radial growth to Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Tree growth sensitivity to climate can vary according to many factors, including: stand structure, available moisture, and tree age. To control for these factors, we sampled tree growth-climate responses at sites in both open and closed forests, and at both low and high annual precipitation. Within each site, we compared growth responses to climate between trees established under high CO2 conditions after 1950 (high CO2 young), and tree established before 1950 under low CO2 levels (low CO2 young). At most sites, low CO2 young have a higher drought sensitivity than higher CO2 young. These changes in the sensitivity to drought are consistent with CO2 enhancement of water use efficiency. Furthermore, these differences in drought sensitivity are higher at sites with high temperature and low precipitation, suggesting that the alleviation of drought is more likely in hot and dry regions. Thus, if CO2 enhancement is indeed occurring in these systems, lower growth sensitivity to drought in hot and dry regions could favor increased forest growth. If

  11. How often do sensitivity analyses for economic parameters change cost-utility analysis conclusions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schackman, Bruce R; Gold, Heather Taffet; Stone, Patricia W; Neumann, Peter J

    2004-01-01

    There is limited evidence about the extent to which sensitivity analysis has been used in the cost-effectiveness literature. Sensitivity analyses for health-related QOL (HR-QOL), cost and discount rate economic parameters are of particular interest because they measure the effects of methodological and estimation uncertainties. To investigate the use of sensitivity analyses in the pharmaceutical cost-utility literature in order to test whether a change in economic parameters could result in a different conclusion regarding the cost effectiveness of the intervention analysed. Cost-utility analyses of pharmaceuticals identified in a prior comprehensive audit (70 articles) were reviewed and further audited. For each base case for which sensitivity analyses were reported (n = 122), up to two sensitivity analyses for HR-QOL (n = 133), cost (n = 99), and discount rate (n = 128) were examined. Article mentions of thresholds for acceptable cost-utility ratios were recorded (total 36). Cost-utility ratios were denominated in US dollars for the year reported in each of the original articles in order to determine whether a different conclusion would have been indicated at the time the article was published. Quality ratings from the original audit for articles where sensitivity analysis results crossed the cost-utility ratio threshold above the base-case result were compared with those that did not. The most frequently mentioned cost-utility thresholds were $US20,000/QALY, $US50,000/QALY, and $US100,000/QALY. The proportions of sensitivity analyses reporting quantitative results that crossed the threshold above the base-case results (or where the sensitivity analysis result was dominated) were 31% for HR-QOL sensitivity analyses, 20% for cost-sensitivity analyses, and 15% for discount-rate sensitivity analyses. Almost half of the discount-rate sensitivity analyses did not report quantitative results. Articles that reported sensitivity analyses where results crossed the cost

  12. Sensitivity Analysis of Oxide Scale Influence on General Carbon Steels during Hot Forging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernd-Arno Behrens

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Increasing product requirements have made numerical simulation into a vital tool for the time- and cost-efficient process design. In order to accurately model hot forging processes with finite, element-based numerical methods, reliable models are required, which take the material behaviour, surface phenomena of die and workpiece, and machine kinematics into account. In hot forging processes, the surface properties are strongly affected by the growth of oxide scale, which influences the material flow, friction, and product quality of the finished component. The influence of different carbon contents on material behaviour is investigated by considering three different steel grades (C15, C45, and C60. For a general description of the material behaviour, an empirical approach is used to implement mathematical functions for expressing the relationship between flow stress and dominant influence variables like alloying elements, initial microstructure, and reheating mode. The deformation behaviour of oxide scale is separately modelled for each component with parameterized flow curves. The main focus of this work lies in the consideration of different materials as well as the calculation and assignment of their material properties in dependence on current process parameters by application of subroutines. The validated model is used to carry out the influence of various oxide scale parameters, like the scale thickness and the composition, on the hot forging process. Therefore, selected parameters have been varied within a numerical sensitivity analysis. The results show a strong influence of oxide scale on the friction behaviour as well as on the material flow during hot forging.

  13. Nutrition counselling in general practice: the stages of change model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verheijden, M.W.

    2004-01-01

    Healthy lifestyles in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases are of utmost importance for people with non insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and/or dyslipidemia. Because of their continuous contact with almost all segments of the population, general practitioners can play an

  14. General review on climate change problems: causes, potential effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martellet, J.

    1991-01-01

    Greenhouse gases and greenhouse effect principles are reviewed and climate changes due to the human activities are discussed: identification of gases, human or natural causes, composition evolution in the atmosphere and relative roles of greenhouse gases. The various tools and calculations methods for evaluating the climate change due to greenhouse effect are presented. Several problems are stated: evolution of the climate structure in 2030, variations of the climatic extremes and the extreme phenomena, augmentation or diminution of the storms on a warmed planet, long term evolution of the climate. Some consequences of a climate change are reviewed: sea level raising, climate change effects on ecosystems. Precision and validity of these predictions are discussed; recommendations for diminishing the uncertainties are proposed

  15. Changes of the skull in general body diseases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koval', G.Yu.; Perepust, L.A.; Novikova, Eh.Z.

    1984-01-01

    Changes of the skull in the following body disease are considered. Diseases: endocrine diseases, fibrous osteodystrophy, reticulohistocytoses and noninfectious granulomas, the blood system diseases, disturbance of vitamin balance. Skull roentgenograms in some above-mentioned diseases are presented and analysed

  16. Benchmarking sensitivity of biophysical processes to leaf area changes in land surface models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forzieri, Giovanni; Duveiller, Gregory; Georgievski, Goran; Li, Wei; Robestson, Eddy; Kautz, Markus; Lawrence, Peter; Ciais, Philippe; Pongratz, Julia; Sitch, Stephen; Wiltshire, Andy; Arneth, Almut; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2017-04-01

    Land surface models (LSM) are widely applied as supporting tools for policy-relevant assessment of climate change and its impact on terrestrial ecosystems, yet knowledge of their performance skills in representing the sensitivity of biophysical processes to changes in vegetation density is still limited. This is particularly relevant in light of the substantial impacts on regional climate associated with the changes in leaf area index (LAI) following the observed global greening. Benchmarking LSMs on the sensitivity of the simulated processes to vegetation density is essential to reduce their uncertainty and improve the representation of these effects. Here we present a novel benchmark system to assess model capacity in reproducing land surface-atmosphere energy exchanges modulated by vegetation density. Through a collaborative effort of different modeling groups, a consistent set of land surface energy fluxes and LAI dynamics has been generated from multiple LSMs, including JSBACH, JULES, ORCHIDEE, CLM4.5 and LPJ-GUESS. Relationships of interannual variations of modeled surface fluxes to LAI changes have been analyzed at global scale across different climatological gradients and compared with satellite-based products. A set of scoring metrics has been used to assess the overall model performances and a detailed analysis in the climate space has been provided to diagnose possible model errors associated to background conditions. Results have enabled us to identify model-specific strengths and deficiencies. An overall best performing model does not emerge from the analyses. However, the comparison with other models that work better under certain metrics and conditions indicates that improvements are expected to be potentially achievable. A general amplification of the biophysical processes mediated by vegetation is found across the different land surface schemes. Grasslands are characterized by an underestimated year-to-year variability of LAI in cold climates

  17. Sensitivity of water resources in the Delaware River basin to climate variability and change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayers, Mark A.; Wolock, David M.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Hay, Lauren E.; Tasker, Gary D.

    1994-01-01

    Because of the greenhouse effect, projected increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels might cause global warming, which in turn could result in changes in precipitation patterns and evapotranspiration and in increases in sea level. This report describes the greenhouse effect; discusses the problems and uncertainties associated with the detection, prediction, and effects of climate change; and presents the results of sensitivity analyses of how climate change might affect water resources in the Delaware River basin. Sensitivity analyses suggest that potentially serious shortfalls of certain water resources in the basin could result if some scenarios for climate change come true . The results of model simulations of the basin streamflow demonstrate the difficulty in distinguishing the effects that climate change versus natural climate variability have on streamflow and water supply . The future direction of basin changes in most water resources, furthermore, cannot be precisely determined because of uncertainty in current projections of regional temperature and precipitation . This large uncertainty indicates that, for resource planning, information defining the sensitivities of water resources to a range of climate change is most relevant . The sensitivity analyses could be useful in developing contingency plans for evaluating and responding to changes, should they occur.

  18. Classifying multi-model wheat yield impact response surfaces showing sensitivity to temperature and precipitation change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Fronzek, S.; Pirttioja, N. K.; Carter, T. R.; Bindi, M.; Hoffmann, H.; Palosuo, T.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Tao, F.; Trnka, Miroslav; Acutis, M.; Asseng, S.; Baranowski, P.; Basso, B.; Bodin, P.; Buis, S.; Cammarano, D.; Deligios, P.; Destain, M. F.; Dumont, B.; Ewert, F.; Ferrise, R.; Francois, L.; Gaiser, T.; Hlavinka, Petr; Jacquemin, I.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Kollas, C.; Krzyszczak, J.; Lorite, I. J.; Minet, J.; Ines Minguez, M.; Montesino, M.; Moriondo, M.; Mueller, C.; Nendel, C.; Öztürk, I.; Perego, A.; Rodriguez, A.; Ruane, A. C.; Ruget, F.; Sanna, M.; Semenov, M. A.; Slawinski, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Supit, I.; Waha, K.; Wang, E.; Wu, L.; Zhao, Z.; Rötter, R.

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 159, jan (2018), s. 209-224 ISSN 0308-521X Institutional support: RVO:86652079 Keywords : climate - change * crop models * probabilistic assessment * simulating impacts * british catchments * uncertainty * europe * productivity * calibration * adaptation * Classification * Climate change * Crop model * Ensemble * Sensitivity analysis * Wheat Subject RIV: GC - Agronomy OBOR OECD: Agronomy, plant breeding and plant protection Impact factor: 2.571, year: 2016

  19. Climate change sensitivity of multi-species afforestation in semi-arid Benin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noulèkoun, Florent; Khamzina, Asia; Naab, Jesse B.; Khasanah, N.; Noordwijk, van Meine; Lamers, John P.A.

    2018-01-01

    The early growth stage is critical in the response of trees to climate change and variability. It is not clear, however, what climate metrics are best to define the early-growth sensitivity in assessing adaptation strategies of young forests to climate change. Using a combination of field

  20. Analysis of bone architecture sensitivity for changes in mechanical loading, cellular activity, mechanotransduction, and tissue properties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cox, L.G.E.; Rietbergen, van B.; Donkelaar, van C.C.; Ito, K.

    2011-01-01

    Bone has an architecture which is optimized for its mechanical environment. In various conditions, this architecture is altered, and the underlying cause for this change is not always known. In the present paper, we investigated the sensitivity of the bone microarchitecture for four factors: changes

  1. The observed sensitivity of the global hydrological cycle to changes in surface temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arkin, Phillip A; Janowiak, John; Smith, Thomas M; Sapiano, Mathew R P

    2010-01-01

    Climate models project large changes in global surface temperature in coming decades that are expected to be accompanied by significant changes in the global hydrological cycle. Validation of model simulations is essential to support their use in decision making, but observing the elements of the hydrological cycle is challenging, and model-independent global data sets exist only for precipitation. We compute the sensitivity of the global hydrological cycle to changes in surface temperature using available global precipitation data sets and compare the results against the sensitivities derived from model simulations of 20th century climate. The implications of the results for the global climate observing system are discussed.

  2. A Generalized Deforestation and Land-Use Change Scenario Generator for Use in Climate Modelling Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Caporaso, Luca; Biondi, Riccardo; Bell, Jean Pierre

    2015-01-01

    A new deforestation and land-use change scenario generator model (FOREST-SAGE) is presented that is designed to interface directly with dynamic vegetation models used in latest generation earth system models. The model requires a regional-scale scenario for aggregate land-use change that may be time-dependent, provided by observational studies or by regional land-use change/economic models for future projections. These land-use categories of the observations/economic model are first translated into equivalent plant function types used by the particular vegetation model, and then FOREST-SAGE disaggregates the regional-scale scenario to the local grid-scale of the earth system model using a set of risk-rules based on factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. These rules presently focus on the conversion of forest to agriculture and pasture use, but could be generalized to other land use change conversions. After introducing the model, an evaluation of its performance is shown for the land-cover changes that have occurred in the Central African Basin from 2001–2010 using retrievals from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. The model is able to broadly reproduce the spatial patterns of forest cover change observed by MODIS, and the use of the local-scale risk factors enables FOREST-SAGE to improve land use change patterns considerably relative to benchmark scenarios used in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project integrations. The uncertainty to the various risk factors is investigated using an ensemble of investigations, and it is shown that the model is sensitive to the population density, forest fragmentation and reforestation factors specified. PMID:26394392

  3. A unifying concept of coccolithophore sensitivity to changing carbonate chemistry embedded in an ecological framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bach, Lennart Thomas; Riebesell, Ulf; Gutowska, Magdalena A.; Federwisch, Luisa; Schulz, Kai Georg

    2015-06-01

    Coccolithophores are a group of unicellular phytoplankton species whose ability to calcify has a profound influence on biogeochemical element cycling. Calcification rates are controlled by a large variety of biotic and abiotic factors. Among these factors, carbonate chemistry has gained considerable attention during the last years as coccolithophores have been identified to be particularly sensitive to ocean acidification. Despite intense research in this area, a general concept harmonizing the numerous and sometimes (seemingly) contradictory responses of coccolithophores to changing carbonate chemistry is still lacking to date. Here, we present the "substrate-inhibitor concept" which describes the dependence of calcification rates on carbonate chemistry speciation. It is based on observations that calcification rate scales positively with bicarbonate (HCO3-), the primary substrate for calcification, and carbon dioxide (CO2), which can limit cell growth, whereas it is inhibited by protons (H+). This concept was implemented in a model equation, tested against experimental data, and then applied to understand and reconcile the diverging responses of coccolithophorid calcification rates to ocean acidification obtained in culture experiments. Furthermore, we (i) discuss how other important calcification-influencing factors (e.g. temperature and light) could be implemented in our concept and (ii) embed it in Hutchinson's niche theory, thereby providing a framework for how carbonate chemistry-induced changes in calcification rates could be linked with changing coccolithophore abundance in the oceans. Our results suggest that the projected increase of H+ in the near future (next couple of thousand years), paralleled by only a minor increase of inorganic carbon substrate, could impede calcification rates if coccolithophores are unable to fully adapt. However, if calcium carbonate (CaCO3) sediment dissolution and terrestrial weathering begin to increase the oceans' HCO3

  4. Sensitivity of Regulated Flow Regimes to Climate Change in the Western United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Tian [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Voisin, Nathalie [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Leng, Guoyong [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Huang, Maoyi [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Kraucunas, Ian [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

    2018-03-01

    Water management activities or flow regulations modify water fluxes at the land surface and affect water resources in space and time. We hypothesize that flow regulations change the sensitivity of river flow to climate change with respect to unmanaged water resources. Quantifying these changes in sensitivity could help elucidate the impacts of water management at different spatiotemporal scales and inform climate adaptation decisions. In this study, we compared the emergence of significant changes in natural and regulated river flow regimes across the Western United States from simulations driven by multiple climate models and scenarios. We find that significant climate change-induced alterations in natural flow do not cascade linearly through water management activities. At the annual time scale, 50% of the Hydrologic Unit Code 4 (HUC4) sub-basins over the Western U.S. regions tend to have regulated flow regime more sensitive to the climate change than natural flow regime. Seasonality analyses show that the sensitivity varies remarkably across the seasons. We also find that the sensitivity is related to the level of water management. For 35% of the HUC4 sub-basins with the highest level of water management, the summer and winter flows tend to show a heightened sensitivity to climate change due to the complexity of joint reservoir operations. We further demonstrate that the impacts of considering water management in models are comparable to those that arises from uncertainties across climate models and emission scenarios. This prompts further climate adaptation studies research about nonlinearity effects of climate change through water management activities.

  5. Interpretive medicine: Supporting generalism in a changing primary care world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeve, Joanne

    2010-01-01

    Patient-centredness is a core value of general practice; it is defined as the interpersonal processes that support the holistic care of individuals. To date, efforts to demonstrate their relationship to patient outcomes have been disappointing, whilst some studies suggest values may be more rhetoric than reality. Contextual issues influence the quality of patient-centred consultations, impacting on outcomes. The legitimate use of knowledge, or evidence, is a defining aspect of modern practice, and has implications for patient-centredness. Based on a critical review of the literature, on my own empirical research, and on reflections from my clinical practice, I critique current models of the use of knowledge in supporting individualised care. Evidence-Based Medicine (EBM), and its implementation within health policy as Scientific Bureaucratic Medicine (SBM), define best evidence in terms of an epistemological emphasis on scientific knowledge over clinical experience. It provides objective knowledge of disease, including quantitative estimates of the certainty of that knowledge. Whilst arguably appropriate for secondary care, involving episodic care of selected populations referred in for specialist diagnosis and treatment of disease, application to general practice can be questioned given the complex, dynamic and uncertain nature of much of the illness that is treated. I propose that general practice is better described by a model of Interpretive Medicine (IM): the critical, thoughtful, professional use of an appropriate range of knowledges in the dynamic, shared exploration and interpretation of individual illness experience, in order to support the creative capacity of individuals in maintaining their daily lives. Whilst the generation of interpreted knowledge is an essential part of daily general practice, the profession does not have an adequate framework by which this activity can be externally judged to have been done well. Drawing on theory related to the

  6. Implicit and Explicit Attitudes Toward Spiders : Sensitivity to Treatment and Predictive Value for Generalization of Treatment Effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijding, Jorg; de Jong, Peter J.

    This study tested whether high spider fearful individuals' implicit and explicit attitudes toward spiders are sensitive to exposure treatment, and whether post-treatment implicit and/or explicit attitudes are related to the generalization of treatment effects. Self-reported explicit and implicit

  7. Participation of the peripheral taste system in aging-dependent changes in taste sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narukawa, Masataka; Kurokawa, Azusa; Kohta, Rie; Misaka, Takumi

    2017-09-01

    Previous studies have shown that aging modifies taste sensitivity. However, the factors affecting the changes in taste sensitivity remain unclear. To investigate the cause of the age-related changes in taste sensitivity, we compared the peripheral taste detection systems in young and old mice. First, we examined whether taste sensitivity varied according to age using behavioral assays. We confirmed that the taste sensitivities to salty and bitter tastes decreased with aging. In other assays, the gustatory nerve responses to salty and sweet tastes increased significantly with aging, while those to bitter taste did not change. Thus, the profile of the gustatory nerve responses was inconsistent with the profile of the behavioral responses. Next, we evaluated the expressions of taste-related molecules in the taste buds. Although no apparent differences in the expressions of representative taste receptors were observed between the two age groups, the mRNA expressions of signaling effectors were slightly, but significantly, decreased in old mice. No significant differences in the turnover rates of taste bud cells were observed between the two age groups. Thus, we did not observe any large decreases in the expressions of taste-related molecules and turnover rates of taste bud cells with aging. Based on these findings, we conclude that changes in taste sensitivity with aging were not caused by aging-related degradation of peripheral taste organs. Meanwhile, the concentrations of several serum components that modify taste responses changed with age. Thus, taste signal-modifying factors such as serum components may have a contributing role in aging-related changes in taste sensitivity. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  8. Contact sensitization to fragrances in the general population: a Koch's approach may reveal the burden of disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thyssen, J P; Menné, T; Linneberg, A

    2009-01-01

    subjects were tested in total. The median prevalence of FM and MP sensitization among adults was 2.3% (women, 1.7%; men, 1.3%) and 1.1% (women, 1.4%; men, 0%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the reliability of patch test data from the general population and exposure data obtained from patients...... the prevalence of fragrance sensitization in the general population, and to suggest how future population-based studies and questionnaires should be constructed, better to assess the prevalence and burden of fragrance sensitization. This is of relevance as it is often difficult to establish causality...... in biological systems. METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was carried out by searching Pubmed-Medline, Biosis and contact dermatitis textbooks. RESULTS: Nineteen studies were identified, of which 13 were performed among adults. Sample sizes varied between 82 and 2545 tested subjects, and 11 648...

  9. Impact of weight change on albuminuria in the general population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bello, Aminu K.; de Zeeuw, Dick; El Nahas, Meguid; Brantsma, Auke H.; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; de Jong, Paul E.; Gansevoort, Ronald T.

    Background. Increased levels of albuminuria have been recognized as a feature of obesity and the metabolic syndrome, and to be associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular and renal disease. The impact of weight change on albuminuria and its possible mechanism has not been studied yet in the

  10. A general equilibrium analysis of climate change impacts on tourism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berrittella, M.; Bigano, A.; Roson, R.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2006-01-01

    This paper studies the economic implications of climate-change-induced variations in tourism demand, using a world CGE model. The model is first re-calibrated at some future years, obtaining hypothetical benchmark equilibria, which are subsequently perturbed by shocks, simulating the effects of

  11. Changing General Education Classroom Practices To Adapt for Gifted Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnsen, Susan K.; Haensly, Patricia A.; Ryser, Gail R.; Ford, Randal F.

    2002-01-01

    A study involving 1 urban site and 5 rural sites investigated the effectiveness of the Mustard Seed Project in training teachers to differentiate curricula for gifted students. The majority of the teachers (n=74) at each site made changes. Participants cited staff-development activities, leadership, mentoring, resources, and project support as…

  12. Change in generally accepted regularity of phase transformations of quartzite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kukartsev, V. A.; Kukartsev, V. V.; Chzhan, E. A.; Tynchenko, V. S.; Stupina, A. A.

    2018-05-01

    The subject of this research is phasic transformations of quartzites that are under temperature treatment to remove moisture. This technology is used in enterprises operating melting furnaces. The studies have shown that using a temperature regime consisting in heating to 800° C and holding for 2 hours, after cooling, quartzite changes its color and appears a shift in the angle of the interplanar distances of the crystal lattice by 6.6% in it. The use of a temperature treatment regime consisting in heating to 200° C and holding for 4 hours does not reveal such changes. With subsequent exposure to these samples of the temperature regime corresponding to the sintering process of the liner, the following is established. In a sample pretreated with a temperature of 800° C, at a temperature of 1550° C, a tridymite phase appears. In the sample of a 200° C pretreated with temperature, a phase of cristobalite appears without tridymite.

  13. Sensitivity of climate change in Europe to the Northern Atlantic warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Timbal, B; Mahfouf, J F; Royer, J F [Centre National de Recherches Meteoroloques, Toulouse (France)

    1996-12-31

    The increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide since the beginning of the industrial revolution has raised the question of its impact on climate. Anthropogenic release of carbon dioxide is an extra source in the complex carbon cycle involving the ocean, the atmosphere and the biosphere. Three-dimensional general circulation models have been used world-wide over the last decade to perform climate research. Complete global change experiments need to couple an atmospheric model with an oceanic one and a thermodynamical and dynamical sea-ice model. Therefore realistic scenarios of greenhouse gas increases can be studied. These computer-time expensive experiments cannot be reproduced as often as necessary. A commonly used approach is to perform time-slice experiments at the equilibrium with an atmospheric GCM forced by Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies. Several sensitivity experiments using higher resolutions or more sophisticated physical parameterisations can be performed. As the resolution increases, one can study the result over special areas of interest, such as Europe

  14. Sensitivity of climate change in Europe to the Northern Atlantic warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Timbal, B.; Mahfouf, J.F.; Royer, J.F. [Centre National de Recherches Meteoroloques, Toulouse (France)

    1995-12-31

    The increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide since the beginning of the industrial revolution has raised the question of its impact on climate. Anthropogenic release of carbon dioxide is an extra source in the complex carbon cycle involving the ocean, the atmosphere and the biosphere. Three-dimensional general circulation models have been used world-wide over the last decade to perform climate research. Complete global change experiments need to couple an atmospheric model with an oceanic one and a thermodynamical and dynamical sea-ice model. Therefore realistic scenarios of greenhouse gas increases can be studied. These computer-time expensive experiments cannot be reproduced as often as necessary. A commonly used approach is to perform time-slice experiments at the equilibrium with an atmospheric GCM forced by Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies. Several sensitivity experiments using higher resolutions or more sophisticated physical parameterisations can be performed. As the resolution increases, one can study the result over special areas of interest, such as Europe

  15. Sensitivity of ocean acidification and oxygen to the uncertainty in climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao, Long; Wang, Shuangjing; Zheng, Meidi; Zhang, Han

    2014-01-01

    Due to increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and associated climate change, the global ocean is undergoing substantial physical and biogeochemical changes. Among these, changes in ocean oxygen and carbonate chemistry have great implication for marine biota. There is considerable uncertainty in the projections of future climate change, and it is unclear how the uncertainty in climate change would also affect the projection of oxygen and carbonate chemistry. To investigate this issue, we use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to perform a set of simulations, including that which involves no radiative effect of atmospheric CO 2 and those which involve CO 2 -induced climate change with climate sensitivity varying from 0.5 °C to 4.5 °C. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration is prescribed to follow RCP 8.5 pathway and its extensions. Climate change affects carbonate chemistry and oxygen mainly through its impact on ocean temperature, ocean ventilation, and concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. It is found that climate change mitigates the decrease of carbonate ions at the ocean surface but has negligible effect on surface ocean pH. Averaged over the whole ocean, climate change acts to decrease oxygen concentration but mitigates the CO 2 -induced reduction of carbonate ion and pH. In our simulations, by year 2500, every degree increase of climate sensitivity warms the ocean by 0.8 °C and reduces ocean-mean dissolved oxygen concentration by 5.0%. Meanwhile, every degree increase of climate sensitivity buffers CO 2 -induced reduction in ocean-mean carbonate ion concentration and pH by 3.4% and 0.02 units, respectively. Our study demonstrates different sensitivities of ocean temperature, carbonate chemistry, and oxygen, in terms of both the sign and magnitude to the amount of climate change, which have great implications for understanding the response of ocean biota to climate change. (letters)

  16. Prevalence of contact allergy in the general population: Sensitization to metals with a focus on nickel sulfate, the EDEN Fragrance Study Group

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuttelaar, M.-L.; Ofenloch, R.; Bruze, M.; Cazzaniga, S.; Elsner, P.; Gonçalo, M.; Naldi, L.; Svensson, Å.; Diepgen, T.

    2016-01-01

    Sensitization to metals is assessed mostly in clinical populations. Studies in the general population are scarce. Our objective was to determine the prevalence of metal sensitization in the general population and to determine risk factors for nickel sensitization. In five European countries (the

  17. General Practitioners' Perspective on eHealth and Lifestyle Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, Carl Joakim; Søgaard, Gabrielle Isidora; Clemensen, Jane

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Wearables, fitness apps, and patient home monitoring devices are used increasingly by patients and other individuals with lifestyle challenges. All Danish general practitioners (GPs) use digital health records and electronic health (eHealth) consultations on a daily basis, but how...... they perceive the increasing demand for lifestyle advice and whether they see eHealth as part of their lifestyle support should be explored further. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to explore GPs' perspectives on eHealth devices and apps and the use of eHealth in supporting healthy lifestyle behavior...... or in partnership with 1 to 4 colleagues and all use electronic patient health records for prescription, referral, and asynchronous electronic consultations. We performed qualitative, semistructured, individual in-depth interviews with the GPs in their own office about how they used eHealth and mHealth devices...

  18. Early spatiotemporal-specific changes in intermediate signals are predictive of cytotoxic sensitivity to TNFα and co-treatments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loo, Lit-Hsin; Bougen-Zhukov, Nicola Michelle; Tan, Wei-Ling Cecilia

    2017-03-01

    Signaling pathways can generate different cellular responses to the same cytotoxic agents. Current quantitative models for predicting these differential responses are usually based on large numbers of intracellular gene products or signals at different levels of signaling cascades. Here, we report a study to predict cellular sensitivity to tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFα) using high-throughput cellular imaging and machine-learning methods. We measured and compared 1170 protein phosphorylation events in a panel of human lung cancer cell lines based on different signals, subcellular regions, and time points within one hour of TNFα treatment. We found that two spatiotemporal-specific changes in an intermediate signaling protein, p90 ribosomal S6 kinase (RSK), are sufficient to predict the TNFα sensitivity of these cell lines. Our models could also predict the combined effects of TNFα and other kinase inhibitors, many of which are not known to target RSK directly. Therefore, early spatiotemporal-specific changes in intermediate signals are sufficient to represent the complex cellular responses to these perturbations. Our study provides a general framework for the development of rapid, signaling-based cytotoxicity screens that may be used to predict cellular sensitivity to a cytotoxic agent, or identify co-treatments that may sensitize or desensitize cells to the agent.

  19. Auditory cortical neurons are sensitive to static and continuously changing interaural phase cues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reale, R A; Brugge, J F

    1990-10-01

    1. The interaural-phase-difference (IPD) sensitivity of single neurons in the primary auditory (AI) cortex of the anesthetized cat was studied at stimulus frequencies ranging from 120 to 2,500 Hz. Best frequencies of the 43 AI cells sensitive to IPD ranged from 190 to 2,400 Hz. 2. A static IPD was produced when a pair of low-frequency tone bursts, differing from one another only in starting phase, were presented dichotically. The resulting IPD-sensitivity curves, which plot the number of discharges evoked by the binaural signal as a function of IPD, were deeply modulated circular functions. IPD functions were analyzed for their mean vector length (r) and mean interaural phase (phi). Phase sensitivity was relatively independent of best frequency (BF) but highly dependent on stimulus frequency. Regardless of BF or stimulus frequency within the excitatory response area the majority of cells fired maximally when the ipsilateral tone lagged the contralateral signal and fired least when this interaural-phase relationship was reversed. 3. Sensitivity to continuously changing IPD was studied by delivering to the two ears 3-s tones that differed slightly in frequency, resulting in a binaural beat. Approximately 26% of the cells that showed a sensitivity to static changes in IPD also showed a sensitivity to dynamically changing IPD created by this binaural tonal combination. The discharges were highly periodic and tightly synchronized to a particular phase of the binaural beat cycle. High synchrony can be attributed to the fact that cortical neurons typically respond to an excitatory stimulus with but a single spike that is often precisely timed to stimulus onset. A period histogram, binned on the binaural beat frequency (fb), produced an equivalent IPD-sensitivity function for dynamically changing interaural phase. For neurons sensitive to both static and continuously changing interaural phase there was good correspondence between their static (phi s) and dynamic (phi d

  20. 46 CFR 67.85 - Change in general partners of partnership.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Change in general partners of partnership. 67.85 Section... partners of partnership. When the general partners of a partnership owning a documented vessel change by addition, deletion, or substitution without dissolution of the partnership, the change must be established...

  1. Heteromeric Slick/Slack K+ channels show graded sensitivity to cell volume changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejada, Maria A; Hashem, Nadia; Calloe, Kirstine; Klaerke, Dan A

    2017-01-01

    Slick and Slack high-conductance K+ channels are found in the CNS, kidneys, pancreas, among other organs, where they play an important role in cell excitability as well as in ion transport processes. They are both activated by Na+ and Cl- but show a differential regulation by cell volume changes. Slick has been shown to be regulated by cell volume changes, whereas Slack is insensitive. α-subunits of these channels form homomeric as well as heteromeric channels. It is the aim of this work to explore whether the subunit composition of the Slick/Slack heteromeric channel affects the response to osmotic challenges. In order to provide with the adequate water permeability to the cell membrane of Xenopus laevis oocytes, mRNA of aquaporin 1 was co-expressed with homomeric or heteromeric Slick and Slack α-subunits. Oocytes were superfused with hypotonic or hypertonic buffers and changes in currents were measured by two-electrode voltage clamp. This work presents the first heteromeric K+ channel with a characteristic graded sensitivity to small and fast changes in cell volume. Our results show that the cell volume sensitivity of Slick/Slack heteromeric channels is dependent on the number of volume sensitive Slick α-subunits in the tetrameric channels, giving rise to graded cell volume sensitivity. Regulation of the subunit composition of a channel may constitute a novel mechanism to determine volume sensitivity of cells.

  2. Modic Type 1 Changes: Detection Performance of Fat-Suppressed Fluid-Sensitive MRI Sequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finkenstaedt, Tim; Del Grande, Filippo; Bolog, Nicolae; Ulrich, Nils; Tok, Sina; Kolokythas, Orpheus; Steurer, Johann; Andreisek, Gustav; Winklhofer, Sebastian

    2018-02-01

     To assess the performance of fat-suppressed fluid-sensitive MRI sequences compared to T1-weighted (T1w) / T2w sequences for the detection of Modic 1 end-plate changes on lumbar spine MRI.  Sagittal T1w, T2w, and fat-suppressed fluid-sensitive MRI images of 100 consecutive patients (consequently 500 vertebral segments; 52 female, mean age 74 ± 7.4 years; 48 male, mean age 71 ± 6.3 years) were retrospectively evaluated. We recorded the presence (yes/no) and extension (i. e., Likert-scale of height, volume, and end-plate extension) of Modic I changes in T1w/T2w sequences and compared the results to fat-suppressed fluid-sensitive sequences (McNemar/Wilcoxon-signed-rank test).  Fat-suppressed fluid-sensitive sequences revealed significantly more Modic I changes compared to T1w/T2w sequences (156 vs. 93 segments, respectively; p definition of Modic I changes is not fully applicable anymore.. · Fat-suppressed fluid-sensitive MRI sequences revealed more/greater extent of Modic I changes.. · Finkenstaedt T, Del Grande F, Bolog N et al. Modic Type 1 Changes: Detection Performance of Fat-Suppressed Fluid-Sensitive MRI Sequences. Fortschr Röntgenstr 2018; 190: 152 - 160. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  3. Changes in contrast sensitivity after surgery for macula-on rhegmatogenous retinal detachment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okamoto, Fumiki; Sugiura, Yoshimi; Okamoto, Yoshifumi; Hiraoka, Takahiro; Oshika, Tetsuro

    2013-10-01

    To evaluate changes in contrast sensitivity after surgery for macula-on rhegmatogenous retinal detachment (RRD). Prospective, interventional, consecutive, case-control study. This study included 84 eyes of 84 patients with unilateral macula-on RRD undergoing primary scleral buckling or vitrectomy without postoperative macular complication. We examined the logarithm of the minimal angle of resolution best-corrected visual acuity (logMAR BCVA) and contrast sensitivity at 4 spatial frequencies (3, 6, 12, and 18 cycles/degree) using the CSV-1000E (Vector Vision) before and after surgery. From the data obtained with the CSV-1000E, the area under the log contrast sensitivity function was calculated. The logMAR BCVA and contrast sensitivity in the contralateral normal eyes also were measured and were used as normal controls. Clinical data were collected, including age, gender, surgical procedures, the number of retinal tears, circumferential dimension of retinal tears, and area of retinal detachment, to determine the clinical factors related to visual function. Preoperative contrast sensitivity was significantly worse in eyes with RRD than in normal controls, but the preoperative logMAR BCVA was not different from that of normal controls. Contrast sensitivity decreased significantly after surgery, but logMAR BCVA did not change by surgery. Multiple regression analysis revealed that postoperative contrast sensitivity had a significant correlation with the circumferential dimension of retinal tears, whereas no clinical parameters were associated significantly with postoperative BCVA. Surgery for macula-on RRD did not change visual acuity, whereas contrast sensitivity was affected significantly in association with the extent of retinal tears. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Generalized mechanical pain sensitivity over nerve tissues in patients with strictly unilateral migraine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-de-las-Peñas, César; Arendt-Nielsen, Lars; Cuadrado, María Luz; Pareja, Juan A

    2009-06-01

    No study has previously analyzed pressure pain sensitivity of nerve trunks in migraine. This study aimed to examine the differences in mechanical pain sensitivity over specific nerves between patients with unilateral migraine and healthy controls. Blinded investigators assessed pressure pain thresholds (PPT) over the supra-orbital nerves (V1) and peripheral nerve trunks of both upper extremities (median, radial, and ulnar nerves) in 20 patients with strictly unilateral migraine and 20 healthy matched controls. Pain intensity after palpation over both supra-orbital nerves was also assessed. A pressure algometer was used to quantify PPT, whereas a 10-point numerical pain rate scale was used to evaluate pain to palpation over the supra-orbital nerve. The analysis of covariance revealed that pain to palpation over the supra-orbital nerve was significantly higher (P0.6). In patients with unilateral migraine, we found increased mechano-sensitivity of the supra-orbital nerve on the symptomatic side of the head. Outside the head, the same patients showed increased mechano-sensitivity of the main peripheral nerves of both upper limbs, without asymmetries. Such diffuse hypersensitivity of the peripheral nerves lends further evidence to the presence of a state of hyperexcitability of the central nervous system in patients with unilateral migraine.

  5. Generalized and symptom-specific sensitization of chronic itch and pain.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laarhoven, A.I.M. van; Kraaimaat, F.W.; Wilder-Smith, O.H.G.; Kerkhof, P.C.M. van de; Cats, H.; Riel, P.L.C.M. van; Evers, A.W.M.

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Physicians are frequently confronted with patients reporting severe itch and pain. Particularly in patients suffering from persistent itch and pain, central and peripheral sensitization processes are assumed to be involved in the long-term maintenance and aggravation of the symptoms. The

  6. Interpersonal sensitivity mediates the effects of child abuse and affective temperaments on depressive symptoms in the general adult population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otsuka A

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Ayano Otsuka,1 Yoshikazu Takaesu,1 Mitsuhiko Sato,1 Jiro Masuya,1 Masahiko Ichiki,1 Ichiro Kusumi,2 Takeshi Inoue1 1Department of Psychiatry, Tokyo Medical University, Tokyo, 2Department of Psychiatry, Hokkaido University Graduate School of Medicine, Sapporo, Japan Background: Recent studies have suggested that multiple factors interact with the onset and prognosis of major depressive disorders. In this study, we investigated how child abuse, affective temperaments, and interpersonal sensitivity are interrelated, and how they affect depressive symptoms in the general adult population. Subjects and methods: A total of 415 volunteers from the general adult population completed the Patient Health Questionnaire-9, the Temperament Evaluation of Memphis, Pisa, Paris, and San Diego-Autoquestionnaire version, the Child Abuse and Trauma Scale, and the Interpersonal Sensitivity Measure, which are all self-administered questionnaires. Data were subjected to structural equation modeling (Mplus, and single and multiple regression analyses. Results: The effect of child abuse on depressive symptoms was mediated by interpersonal sensitivity and 4 affective temperaments, including depressive, cyclothymic, anxious, and irritable temperaments. In addition, the effect of these temperaments on depressive symptoms was mediated by interpersonal sensitivity, indicating the indirect enhancement of depressive symptoms. In contrast to these 4 temperaments, the hyperthymic temperament did not mediate the effect of child abuse on depressive symptoms; its effect was not mediated by interpersonal sensitivity. However, a greater hyperthymic temperament predicted decreased depressive symptoms and interpersonal sensitivity, independent of any mediation effect. Limitations: Because this is a cross-sectional study, long-term prospective studies are necessary to confirm its findings. Therefore, recall bias should be considered when interpreting the results. As the subjects were

  7. Sensitivity of honeybee hygroreceptors to slow humidity changes and temporal humidity variation detected in high resolution by mobile measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tichy, Harald; Kallina, Wolfgang

    2014-01-01

    The moist cell and the dry cell on the antenna of the male honeybee were exposed to humidities slowly rising and falling at rates between -1.5%/s and +1.5%/s and at varying amplitudes in the 10 to 90% humidity range. The two cells respond to these slow humidity oscillations with oscillations in impulse frequency which depend not only on instantaneous humidity but also on the rate with which humidity changes. The impulse frequency of each cell was plotted as a function of these two parameters and regression planes were fitted to the data points of single oscillation periods. The regression slopes, which estimate sensitivity, rose with the amplitude of humidity oscillations. During large-amplitude oscillations, moist and dry cell sensitivity for instantaneous humidity and its rate of change was high. During small-amplitude oscillations, their sensitivity for both parameters was low, less exactly reflecting humidity fluctuations. Nothing is known about the spatial and temporal humidity variations a honeybee may encounter when flying through natural environments. Microclimatic parameters (absolute humidity, temperature, wind speed) were measured from an automobile traveling through different landscapes of Lower Austria. Landscape type affected extremes and mean values of humidity. Differences between peaks and troughs of humidity fluctuations were generally smaller in open grassy fields or deciduous forests than in edge habitats or forest openings. Overall, fluctuation amplitudes were small. In this part of the stimulus range, hygroreceptor sensitivity is not optimal for encoding instantaneous humidity and the rate of humidity change. It seems that honeybee's hygroreceptors are specialized for detecting large-amplitude fluctuations that are relevant for a specific behavior, namely, maintaining a sufficiently stable state of water balance. The results suggest that optimal sensitivity of both hygroreceptors is shaped not only by humidity oscillation amplitudes but also

  8. Preliminary evidence for a change in spectral sensitivity of the circadian system at night

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parsons Robert H

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It is well established that the absolute sensitivity of the suprachiasmatic nucleus to photic stimulation received through the retino-hypothalamic tract changes throughout the 24-hour day. It is also believed that a combination of classical photoreceptors (rods and cones and melanopsin-containing retinal ganglion cells participate in circadian phototransduction, with a spectral sensitivity peaking between 440 and 500 nm. It is still unknown, however, whether the spectral sensitivity of the circadian system also changes throughout the solar day. Reported here is a new study that was designed to determine whether the spectral sensitivity of the circadian retinal phototransduction mechanism, measured through melatonin suppression and iris constriction, varies at night. Methods Human adult males were exposed to a high-pressure mercury lamp [450 lux (170 μW/cm2 at the cornea] and an array of blue light emitting diodes [18 lux (29 μW/cm2 at the cornea] during two nighttime experimental sessions. Both melatonin suppression and iris constriction were measured during and after a one-hour light exposure just after midnight and just before dawn. Results An increase in the percentage of melatonin suppression and an increase in pupil constriction for the mercury source relative to the blue light source at night were found, suggesting a temporal change in the contribution of photoreceptor mechanisms leading to melatonin suppression and, possibly, iris constriction by light in humans. Conclusion The preliminary data presented here suggest a change in the spectral sensitivity of circadian phototransduction mechanisms at two different times of the night. These findings are hypothesized to be the result of a change in the sensitivity of the melanopsin-expressing retinal ganglion cells to light during the night.

  9. White matter microstructural changes of thalamocortical networks in photosensitivity and idiopathic generalized epilepsy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Groppa, Sergiu; Moeller, Friederike; Siebner, Hartwig

    2012-01-01

    Photosensitivity or photoparoxysmal response (PPR) is an electroencephalography trait that is highly associated with idiopathic generalized epilepsies (IGEs) and characterized by changes in cortical excitability in response to photic stimulation. Studying functional and structural changes of PPR ...

  10. Community vulnerability to climate change in the context of other exposure-sensitivities in Kugluktuk, Nunavut

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Tozer

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Climate change in the Canadian north is, and will be, managed by communities that are already experiencing social, political, economic and other environmental changes. Hence, there is a need to understand vulnerability to climate change in the context of multiple exposure-sensitivities at the community level. This article responds to this perceived knowledge need based on a case study of the community of Kugluktuk in Nunavut, Canada. An established approach for vulnerability assessment is used to identify current climatic and non-climatic exposure-sensitivities along with their associated contemporary adaptation strategies. This assessment of current vulnerability is used as a basis to consider Kugluktuk's possible vulnerability to climatic change in the future. Current climate-related exposure-sensitivities in Kugluktuk relate primarily to subsistence harvesting and community infrastructure. Thinner and less stable ice conditions and unpredictable weather patterns are making travel and harvesting more dangerous and some community infrastructure is sensitive to permafrost melt and extreme weather events (e.g., flash floods. The ability of individuals and households to adapt to these and other climatic exposure-sensitivities is influenced by non-climatic factors that condition adaptive capacity including substance abuse, the erosion of traditional knowledge and youth suicide. These and other non-climatic factors often underpin adaptive capacity to deal with and adapt to changing conditions and must be considered in an assessment of vulnerability. This research argues that Northern communities are challenged by multiple exposure-sensitivities—beyond just those posed by climate—and effective adaptation to climate change requires consideration if not resolution of socio-economic and other issues in communities.

  11. Sensitivity of a soil-plant-atmosphere model to changes in air temperature, dew point temperature, and solar radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luxmoore, R.J. (Oak Ridge National Lab.,TN); Stolzy, J.L.; Holdeman, J.T.

    1981-01-01

    Air temperature, dew point temperature and solar radiation were independently varied in an hourly soil-plant-atmosphere model in a sensitivity analysis of these parameters. Results suggested that evapotranspiration in eastern Tennessee is limited more by meteorological conditions that determine the vapor-pressure gradient than by the necessary energy to vaporize water within foliage. Transpiration and soil water drainage were very sensitive to changes in air and dew point temperature and to solar radiation under low atmospheric vapor-pressure deficit conditions associated with reduced air temperature. Leaf water potential and stomatal conductance were reduced under conditions having high evapotranspiration. Representative air and dew point temperature input data for a particular application are necessary for satisfactory results, whereas irradiation may be less well characterized for applications with high atmospheric vapor-pressure deficit. The effects of a general rise in atmospheric temperature on forest water budgets are discussed.

  12. A simulation of orientation dependent, global changes in camera sensitivity in ECT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bieszk, J.A.; Hawman, E.G.; Malmin, R.E.

    1984-01-01

    ECT promises the abilities to: 1) observe radioisotope distributions in a patient without the summation of overlying activity to reduce contrast, and 2) measure quantitatively these distributions to further and more accurately assess organ function. Ideally, camera-based ECT systems should have a performance that is independent of camera orientation or gantry angle. This study is concerned with ECT quantitation errors that can arise from angle-dependent variations of camera sensitivity. Using simulated phantoms representative of heart and liver sections, the effects of sensitivity changes on reconstructed images were assessed both visually and quantitatively based on ROI sums. The sinogram for each test image was simulated with 128 linear digitization and 180 angular views. The global orientation-dependent sensitivity was modelled by applying an angular sensitivity dependence to the sinograms of the test images. Four sensitivity variations were studied. Amplitudes of 0% (as a reference), 5%, 10%, and 25% with a cosθ dependence were studied as well as a cos2θ dependence with a 5% amplitude. Simulations were done with and without Poisson noise to: 1) determine trends in the quantitative effects as a function of the magnitude of the variation, and 2) to see how these effects are manifested in studies having statistics comparable to clinical cases. For the most realistic sensitivity variation (cosθ, 5% ampl.), the ROIs chosen in the present work indicated changes of <0.5% in the noiseless case and <5% for the case with Poisson noise. The effects of statistics appear to dominate any effects due to global, sinusoidal, orientation-dependent sensitivity changes in the cases studied

  13. Economics of climate change : sensitivity analysis of social cost of carbon

    OpenAIRE

    Torniainen, Sami

    2016-01-01

    Social cost of carbon (SCC) is the key concept in the economics of climate change. It measures the economic cost of climate impacts. SCC has influence on how beneficial it is to prevent climate change: if the value of SCC increases, investments to low-carbon technology become more attractive and profitable. This paper examines the sensitivity of two important assumptions that affect to SCC: the choice of a discount rate and time horizon. Using the integrated assessment model, ...

  14. Development of a sensitivity analysis systems in nuclear reactors through generalized perturbation theory at first order in 2 D geometries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia, Juan Matias

    2005-01-01

    Perturbation Methods represent a powerful tool to do sensitivity analysis, and they found many aplications in nuclear engineering.As an introduction to this kind of analysis, we develope a program that apply the Generalized Perturbation Theory or GPT Method to bidimensional system of rectangular geometry.We first consider an homogeneous system of non-multiplying material and then an heterogeneous system with region of multiplying material, with the intention of make concret aplications of perturbation method to nuclear engineering problems.The program, that we called Pert, determines neutron fluxes and importance functions applying the Multigroup Diffusion Theory; and also solves the integrals required to calculate sensitivity coefficients.Using this perturbation methods we could verify the low computational cost required to make this kind of analysis and the simplicity of the equations systems involved, allowing us to make elaborates sensitivity analysis for the responses of our interest

  15. Conditioned Pain Modulation and Pressure Pain Sensitivity in the Adult Danish General Population: The DanFunD Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovbjerg, Sine; Jørgensen, Torben; Arendt-Nielsen, Lars

    2017-01-01

    with cold pressor pain (hand) for 2 minutes. Conditioning pain intensity was assessed using a visual analog scale and questionnaire data were collected. Female sex (P stress......Increased pressure pain sensitivity and impaired descending pain control have been associated with chronic pain, but knowledge on the variability in the adult general population is lacking. Pressure pain thresholds (PPTs) and descending pain control assessed using conditioned pain modulation (CPM...... (P ≤ .02), and high visual analog scale score (P ≤ .02) were associated with a larger CPM response. PERSPECTIVE: Data from this large population-based study provide new insight into the gender and age variation in pain sensitivity and CPM response. Decreased CPM potency and increased pain sensitivity...

  16. Arterial stiffness, cardiovagal baroreflex sensitivity and postural blood pressure changes in older adults: the Rotterdam Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mattace-Raso, Francesco U. S.; van den Meiracker, Anton H.; Bos, Willem Jan; van der Cammen, Tischa J. M.; Westerhof, Berend E.; Elias-Smale, Suzette; Reneman, Robert S.; Hoeks, Arnold P. G.; Hofman, Albert; Witteman, Jacqueline C. M.

    2007-01-01

    Arterial stiffness may be involved in the impairment of the arterial baroreflex. In the present study the associations between arterial stiffness and cardiovagal baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) and between BRS and postural blood pressure (BP) changes were investigated within the framework of the

  17. Marine low cloud sensitivity to an idealized climate change : The CGILS LES intercomparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blossey, P.N.; Bretherton, C.S.; Zhang, M.; Cheng, A.; Endo, S.; Heus, T.; Liu, Y.; Lock, A.P.; De Roode, S.R.; Xu, K.M.

    2013-01-01

    Subtropical marine low cloud sensitivity to an idealized climate change is compared in six large-eddy simulation (LES) models as part of CGILS. July cloud cover is simulated at three locations over the subtropical northeast Pacific Ocean, which are typified by cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs)

  18. Sensitivity of pine flatwoods hydrology to climate change and forest management in Florida, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jianbiao Lu; Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; Nicholas B. Comerford

    2009-01-01

    Pine flatwoods (a mixture of cypress wetlands and managed pine uplands) is an important ecosystem in the southeastern U.S. However, long-term hydrologic impacts of forest management and climate change on this heterogeneous landscape are not well understood. Therefore, this study examined the sensitivity of cypress-pine flatwoods...

  19. Spinal Manipulative Therapy Specific Changes In Pain Sensitivity In Individuals With Low Back Pain (NCT01168999)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bialosky, Joel E; George, Steven Z; Horn, Maggie E; Price, Donald D; Staud, Roland; Robinson, Michael E

    2013-01-01

    Spinal Manipulative Therapy (SMT) is effective for some individuals experiencing low back pain (LBP); however, the mechanisms are not established regarding the role of placebo. SMT is associated with changes in pain sensitivity suggesting related altered central nervous system response or processing of afferent nociceptive input. Placebo is also associated with changes in pain sensitivity and the efficacy of SMT for changes in pain sensitivity beyond placebo has not been adequately considered. We randomly assigned 110 participants with LBP to receive SMT, placebo SMT, placebo SMT with the instructional set, “The manual therapy technique you will receive has been shown to significantly reduce low back pain in some people”, or no intervention. Participants receiving the SMT and placebo SMT received their assigned intervention 6 times over two weeks. Pain sensitivity was assessed prior to and immediately following the assigned intervention during the first session. Clinical outcomes were assessed at baseline and following two weeks of participation in the study. Immediate attenuation of suprathreshold heat response was greatest following SMT (p= 0.05, partial η2= 0.07). Group dependent differences were not observed for changes in pain intensity and disability at two week. Participant satisfaction was greatest following the enhanced placebo SMT. PMID:24361109

  20. THE SENSITIVITY TO CHANGE OF MEASURES FOR OBSESSIVE-COMPULSIVE DISORDER

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    VANOPPEN, P; EMMELKAMP, PMG; VANBALKOM, AJLM; VANDYCK, R

    1995-01-01

    This study presents data on the sensitivity to change of the Padua Inventory-Revised (PI-R), the Yale Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale (Y-BOCS), and the Anxiety Discomfort Scale (ADS) for obsessive-compulsive disorder. In a sample of obsessive-compulsives (n = 63) who received either behaviour

  1. Face Inversion Disproportionately Disrupts Sensitivity to Vertical over Horizontal Changes in Eye Position

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crookes, Kate; Hayward, William G.

    2012-01-01

    Presenting a face inverted (upside down) disrupts perceptual sensitivity to the spacing between the features. Recently, it has been shown that this disruption is greater for vertical than horizontal changes in eye position. One explanation for this effect proposed that inversion disrupts the processing of long-range (e.g., eye-to-mouth distance)…

  2. Classifying multi-model wheat yield impact response surfaces showing sensitivity to temperature and precipitation change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fronzek, Stefan; Pirttioja, Nina; Carter, Timothy R.; Bindi, Marco; Hoffmann, Holger; Palosuo, Taru; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Tao, Fulu; Trnka, Miroslav; Acutis, Marco; Asseng, Senthold; Baranowski, Piotr; Basso, Bruno; Bodin, Per; Buis, Samuel; Cammarano, Davide; Deligios, Paola; Destain, Marie France; Dumont, Benjamin; Ewert, Frank; Ferrise, Roberto; François, Louis; Gaiser, Thomas; Hlavinka, Petr; Jacquemin, Ingrid; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian; Kollas, Chris; Krzyszczak, Jaromir; Lorite, Ignacio J.; Minet, Julien; Minguez, M.I.; Montesino, Manuel; Moriondo, Marco; Müller, Christoph; Nendel, Claas; Öztürk, Isik; Perego, Alessia; Rodríguez, Alfredo; Ruane, Alex C.; Ruget, Françoise; Sanna, Mattia; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Slawinski, Cezary; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Supit, Iwan; Waha, Katharina; Wang, Enli; Wu, Lianhai; Zhao, Zhigan; Rötter, Reimund P.

    2018-01-01

    Crop growth simulation models can differ greatly in their treatment of key processes and hence in their response to environmental conditions. Here, we used an ensemble of 26 process-based wheat models applied at sites across a European transect to compare their sensitivity to changes in

  3. Sensitivity to Change of Objectively-Derived Measures of Sedentary Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chastin, Sebastien F. M.; Winkler, Elisabeth A. H.; Eakin, Elizabeth G.; Gardiner, Paul A.; Dunstan, David W.; Owen, Neville; Healy, Genevieve N.

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the sensitivity to change of measures of sedentary behavior derived from body worn sensors in different intervention designs. Results from two intervention studies: "Stand up for Your Health" (pre-post home-based study with older adults not in paid employment) and "Stand Up Comcare"…

  4. Sensitivity of cells to apoptosis induced by iron deprivation can be reversibly changed by iron availability

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Koc, Michal; Naďová, Zuzana; Kovář, Jan

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 39, č. 6 (2006), s. 551-561 ISSN 0960-7722 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR(CZ) KJB5052401 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50520514 Keywords : apoptosis * iron deprivation * changed cell sensitivity to apoptosis by iron availability Subject RIV: EB - Genetics ; Molecular Biology Impact factor: 4.492, year: 2006

  5. The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parametrized physics with emphasis on tropical convection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourdin, Frederic; Musat, Ionela; Bony, Sandrine; Codron, Francis; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Fairhead, Laurent; Grandpeix, Jean-Yves; LeVan, Phu; Li, Zhao-Xin; Lott, Francois [CNRS/UPMC, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD/IPSL), Paris Cedex 05 (France); Braconnot, Pascale; Friedlingstein, Pierre [Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement (LSCE/IPSL), Saclay (France); Filiberti, Marie-Angele [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris (France); Krinner, Gerhard [Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement, Grenoble (France)

    2006-12-15

    The LMDZ4 general circulation model is the atmospheric component of the IPSL-CM4 coupled model which has been used to perform climate change simulations for the 4th IPCC assessment report. The main aspects of the model climatology (forced by observed sea surface temperature) are documented here, as well as the major improvements with respect to the previous versions, which mainly come form the parametrization of tropical convection. A methodology is proposed to help analyse the sensitivity of the tropical Hadley-Walker circulation to the parametrization of cumulus convection and clouds. The tropical circulation is characterized using scalar potentials associated with the horizontal wind and horizontal transport of geopotential (the Laplacian of which is proportional to the total vertical momentum in the atmospheric column). The effect of parametrized physics is analysed in a regime sorted framework using the vertical velocity at 500 hPa as a proxy for large scale vertical motion. Compared to Tiedtke's convection scheme, used in previous versions, the Emanuel's scheme improves the representation of the Hadley-Walker circulation, with a relatively stronger and deeper large scale vertical ascent over tropical continents, and suppresses the marked patterns of concentrated rainfall over oceans. Thanks to the regime sorted analyses, these differences are attributed to intrinsic differences in the vertical distribution of convective heating, and to the lack of self-inhibition by precipitating downdraughts in Tiedtke's parametrization. Both the convection and cloud schemes are shown to control the relative importance of large scale convection over land and ocean, an important point for the behaviour of the coupled model. (orig.)

  6. Modic type 1 changes. Detection performance of fat-suppressed fluid-sensitive MRI sequences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finkenstaedt, Tim; Andreisek, Gustav [University Hospital Zurich (Switzerland). Inst. of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology; Del Grande, Filippo [Ospedale Regionale di Lugano (Switzerland). Inst. of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology; Bolog, Nicolae [Phoenix Diagnostic Clinic, Bucharest (Romania); Ulrich, Nils; Tok, Sina [Schulthess Clinic, Zurich (Switzerland). Dept. of Neurosurgery; Kolokythas, Orpheus [Kantonsspital Winterthur (Switzerland). Inst. for Radiology and Nuclear Medicine; Steurer, Johann [University Hospital Zurich (Switzerland). Horten Center for Patient Oriented Research and Knowledge Transfer; Winklhofer, Sebastian [University Hospital Zurich (Switzerland). Inst. of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology; University Hospital Zurich (Switzerland). Dept. of Neuroradiology; Collaboration: LSOS Study Group

    2018-02-15

    To assess the performance of fat-suppressed fluid-sensitive MRI sequences compared to T1-weighted (T1w) / T2w sequences for the detection of Modic 1 end-plate changes on lumbar spine MRI. Sagittal T1w, T2w, and fat-suppressed fluid-sensitive MRI images of 100 consecutive patients (consequently 500 vertebral segments; 52 female, mean age 74 ± 7.4 years; 48 male, mean age 71 ± 6.3 years) were retrospectively evaluated. We recorded the presence (yes/no) and extension (i.e., Likert-scale of height, volume, and end-plate extension) of Modic I changes in T1w/T2w sequences and compared the results to fat-suppressed fluid-sensitive sequences (McNemar/Wilcoxon-signed-rank test). Fat-suppressed fluid-sensitive sequences revealed significantly more Modic I changes compared to T1w/T2w sequences (156 vs. 93 segments, respectively; p < 0.001). The extension of Modic I changes in fat-suppressed fluid-sensitive sequences was significantly larger compared to T1w/T2w sequences (height: 2.53 ± 0.82 vs. 2.27 ± 0.79, volume: 2.35 ± 0.76 vs. 2.1 ± 0.65, end-plate: 2.46 ± 0.76 vs. 2.19 ± 0.81), (p < 0.05). Modic I changes that were only visible in fat-suppressed fluid-sensitive sequences but not in T1w/T2w sequences were significantly smaller compared to Modic I changes that were also visible in T1w/T2w sequences (p < 0.05). In conclusion, fat-suppressed fluid-sensitive MRI sequences revealed significantly more Modic I end-plate changes and demonstrated a greater extent compared to standard T1w/T2w imaging.

  7. 26 CFR 1.382-2 - General rules for ownership change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false General rules for ownership change. 1.382-2 Section 1.382-2 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) INCOME TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES Insolvency Reorganizations § 1.382-2 General rules for ownership change...

  8. Robotic crabs reveal that female fiddler crabs are sensitive to changes in male display rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mowles, Sophie L; Jennions, Michael D; Backwell, Patricia R Y

    2018-01-01

    Males often produce dynamic, repetitive courtship displays that can be demanding to perform and might advertise male quality to females. A key feature of demanding displays is that they can change in intensity: escalating as a male increases his signalling effort, but de-escalating as a signaller becomes fatigued. Here, we investigated whether female fiddler crabs, Uca mjoebergi , are sensitive to changes in male courtship wave rate. We performed playback experiments using robotic male crabs that had the same mean wave rate, but either escalated, de-escalated or remained constant. Females demonstrated a strong preference for escalating robots, but showed mixed responses to robots that de-escalated ('fast' to 'slow') compared to those that waved at a constant 'medium' rate. These findings demonstrate that females can discern changes in male display rate, and prefer males that escalate, but that females are also sensitive to past display rates indicative of prior vigour. © 2018 The Authors.

  9. Energy partitioning at treeline forest and tundra sites and its sensitivity to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lafleur, P.M. [Trent Univ., Peterborough, ON (Canada); Rouse, W.R. [McMaster Univ., Hamilton, ON (Canada)

    1995-12-31

    A study was conducted to examine the inter-annual variability in energy fluxes of treeline tundra and forest and to investigate the sensitivity of forest and tundra energy balances to climatic changes. A five year record of energy balance data from contiguous wetland tundra and subarctic forest sites near Churchill, Manitoba was analyzed. The data included snow free periods only. Wind direction was used as an analogue for changing climatic conditions where onshore winds are cooler and moister than offshore winds. Sensible and latent heat fluxes at both sites varied significantly between onshore and offshore wind regimes. The differences between onshore and offshore fluxes at the tundra site were larger than for the forest. The tundra-to-forest Bowen ratios decreased with increasing vapour pressure deficit and increasing air temperature. Results suggest that energy partitioning in the wetland tundra is more sensitive to climate change than in the treeline forests. 22 refs., 1 tab., 6 figs.

  10. Changes in corneal sensitivity following cross-linking for progressive early-stage keratoconus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anelise de Medeiros Lago

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To evaluate changes in corneal sensitivity following corneal cross-linking (CXL in patients with progressive earlier stage keratoconus. Methods: Thirty-eight eyes of 19 patients (11 women, 8 men were included in a prospective, nonrandomized clinical study. The mean patient age was 22 years (range, 18-26 years. Inclusion criteria were early stage bilateral progressive keratoconus, a transparent cornea, and a thickness of ≥440 µm in the thinnest area of the cornea. Using the Cochet-Bonnet esthesiometer, central corneal sensitivity was measured before surgery, 7 days after surgery, and once a month thereafter until recovery of baseline preoperative levels. Central corneal sensitivity >40 mm was considered normal. Results: Corneal sensitivity gradually returned to preoperative levels in all treated eyes. The mean central corneal sensitivity was 52.2, 24.0, 38.2, 42.5, 50.0, and 52.5 mm before surgery, 7 days after surgery, and at 1, 2, 3, and 4 months after surgery, respectively. Normal levels of corneal sensation, but not baseline (preoperative levels, were observed 2 months after surgery. The preoperative levels were observed 3 months after surgery. Conclusions: Our results suggest that central corneal sensitivity can be decreased for as long as 3 months after CXL for progressive earlier stage keratoconus.

  11. Sensitivity of glaciation in the arid subtropical Andes to changes in temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargo, L. J.; Galewsky, J.; Rupper, S.; Ward, D. J.

    2018-04-01

    The subtropical Andes (18.5-27 °S) have been glaciated in the past, but are presently glacier-free. We use idealized model experiments to quantify glacier sensitivity to changes in climate in order to investigate the climatic drivers of past glaciations. We quantify the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) sensitivity (the change in ELA per change in climate) to temperature, precipitation, and shortwave radiation for three distinct climatic regions in the subtropical Andes. We find that in the western cordillera, where conditions are hyper-arid with the highest solar radiation on Earth, ELA sensitivity is as high as 34 m per % increase in precipitation, and 70 m per % decrease in shortwave radiation. This is compared with the eastern cordillera, where precipitation is the highest of the three regions, and ELA sensitivity is only 10 m per % increase in precipitation, and 25 m per % decrease in shortwave radiation. The high ELA sensitivity to shortwave radiation highlights the influence of radiation on mass balance of high elevation and low-latitude glaciers. We also consider these quantified ELA sensitivities in context of previously dated glacial deposits from the regions. Our results suggest that glaciation of the humid eastern cordillera was driven primarily by lower temperatures, while glaciations of the arid Altiplano and western cordillera were also influenced by increases in precipitation and decreases in shortwave radiation. Using paleoclimate records from the timing of glaciation, we find that glaciation of the hyper-arid western cordillera can be explained by precipitation increases of 90-160% (1.9-2.6× higher than modern), in conjunction with associated decreases in shortwave radiation of 7-12% and in temperature of 3.5 °C.

  12. Antibiotic sensitivity pattern of bacteria from diabetic foot infections Haji Adam Malik central general hospital

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulolo, B. A.; Pase, M. A.; Ginting, F.

    2018-03-01

    Increasing rate of Diabetic Foot Infections (DFIs) caused by multi-drug-resistance pathogens plays a huge role in the duration of hospitalization, morbidity, and mortality of diabetic patients. The aim of the study is to assess the antibiotic sensitivity pattern of bacteria in DFIs and causative microorganisms. Using cross-sectional retrospective study, data were collected from medical records of DFIs patients previously hospitalized atHaji Adam Malik Hospital, Medan from January to July 2017. 33 patients met the criteria and got enrolled in the study. The classification of DFIs was evaluated according to Wagner’s Classification. Evaluation of antibiotic sensitivity and identification of causative microorganisms were performed in standard microbiologic methods. The most common grade of DFIs was Grade-4 (48.5%), followed by Grade-3 (39.4%) and Grade-5 (9.1%). A total of 12 pathogens were identified. The most common infecting microorganism isolated on pus cultures was Klebsiella pneumonia (33.3%), followed by Escherichia coli (24.2%), Acinetobacter baumanni (12.1%), and Staphylococcus aureus (9.1%). Frequent susceptible antibiotics were Amikacin (88.8%), Imipenem (87%), Meropenem (84.6%), Erythromycin (75%), and Cefoperazone/Sulbactam (68.9%). DFIs are polymicrobial infections in this study K. pneumonia was the most common cause microorganism.

  13. Mechanisms of change in cognitive behavioral therapy for panic disorder: The unique effects of self-efficacy and anxiety sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallagher, Matthew W.; Payne, Laura A.; White, Kamila S.; Shear, Katherine M.; Woods, Scott W.; Gorman, Jack M.; Barlow, David H.

    2013-01-01

    The present study examined temporal dependencies of change of panic symptoms and two promising mechanisms of change (self-efficacy and anxiety sensitivity) during an 11-session course of cognitive-behavior therapy (CBT) for Panic Disorder (PD). 361 individuals with a principal diagnosis of PD completed measures of self-efficacy, anxiety sensitivity, and PD symptoms at each session during treatment. Effect size analyses indicated that the greatest changes in anxiety sensitivity occurred early in treatment, whereas the greatest changes in self-efficacy occurred later in treatment. Results of parallel process latent growth curve models indicated that changes in self-efficacy and anxiety sensitivity across treatment uniquely predicted changes in PD symptoms. Bivariate and multivariate latent difference score models indicated, as expected, that changes in anxiety sensitivity and self-efficacy temporally preceded changes in panic symptoms, and that intraindividual changes in anxiety sensitivity and self-efficacy independently predicted subsequent intraindividual changes in panic symptoms. These results provide strong evidence that changes in self-efficacy and anxiety sensitivity during CBT influence subsequent changes in panic symptoms, and that self-efficacy and anxiety sensitivity may therefore be two distinct mechanisms of change of CBT for PD that have their greatest impact at different stages of treatment. PMID:24095901

  14. Sensitivity change of rhodium self -powered detectors with burn-up

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Girgis, R.; Akimov, I.S.; Hamouda, I.

    1976-01-01

    The scope of the present paper is to obtain the calculation formulae to evaluate the rate of sensitivity change of the neutron self-powered detectors with burn-up. A code written in FORTRAN 4 was developed to be operational on the IBM-1130 computer. It has been established in the case of rhodium detectors that neglecting the β-particle absorption in the calculations leads to the underestimation of the detector sensitivity decrease up to 40%. The derived formulae can be used for other self-powered detectors. (author)

  15. Presynaptic muscarinic receptors: Change of sensitivity during long-term drug treatment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marchi, M.; Raiteri, M.

    1986-01-01

    The authors investigate some of the characteristics of auto- and heteroreceptors from different brain areas in male rats; their alteration in sensitivity following chronic drug treatment is monitored. The synaptosomes were prelabeled with tritium-choline or tritium-dopamine and the release of tritium-acetylcholine and tritium-DA was studied in superfusion. It is shown that the difference in susceptibility between auto- and heteroreceptors with respect to changes of sensitivity may represent a further criterion to discriminate between muscarinic receptor subtypes

  16. Is there a risk of active sensitization to PPD by patch testing the general population?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thyssen, Jacob Pontoppidan; Menné, Torkil; Nielsen, Niels Henrik; Linneberg, Allan

    2007-08-01

    Para-phenylenediamine (PPD), a constituent of permanent hair dyes, may cause contact allergy in exposed individuals. It has previously been questioned whether a patch testing with PPD in population-based epidemiological studies is entirely safe. The Glostrup allergy studies patch tested the same cohort twice. In 1990, 567 persons were patch-tested and only one person had a (+) positive reaction to PPD. In 1998, 540 persons were re-invited to a new patch test and 365 (participation rate 68%) were re-tested. There were no positive reactions to PPD. These studies indicate that patch testing with PPD in individuals with no previous positive reactions to PPD or with only one previous positive reaction does not cause active sensitization and can be performed with minimal risk.

  17. Sensitivity of WRF-simulated planetary boundary layer height to land cover and soil changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferenc Ács

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Planetary boundary layer (PBL height sensitivity to both so-called single and accumulated land cover and soil changes is investigated in shallow convection under cloud-free conditions to compare the effects. Single land cover type and soil changes are carried out to be able to unequivocally separate the cause and effect relationships. The Yonsei University scheme in the framework of the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF mesoscale modeling system is used as a research tool. The area investigated lies in the Carpathian Basin, where anticyclonic weather type influence dominated on the five summer days chosen for simulations. Observation-based methods applied for validating diurnal PBL height courses manifest great deviations reaching 500–1300 m. The obtained deviations are somewhat smaller around midday and greater at night. They can originate either from the differences in the measuring principles or from the differences in the atmospheric profiles used. Concerning sensitivity analyses, we showed that PBL height differences caused by soil change are comparable with the PBL height differences caused by land cover change. The differences are much greater in the single than in the accumulated tests. Space averaged diurnal course difference around midday reaching a few tens of meters can be presumably treated as strongly significant. PBL height differences obtained in the sensitivity analyses are, at least in our case, smaller than those obtained by applying different observation based methods. The results may be utilized in PBL height diurnal course analyses.

  18. Reliability and sensitivity to change of the timed standing balance test in children with down syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vencita Priyanka Aranha

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To estimate the reliability and sensitivity to change of the timed standing balance test in children with Down syndrome (DS. Methods: It was a nonblinded, comparison study with a convenience sample of subjects consisting of children with DS (n = 9 aged 8–17 years. The main outcome measure was standing balance which was assessed using timed standing balance test, the time required to maintain in four conditions, eyes open static, eyes closed static, eyes open dynamic, and eyes closed dynamic. Results: Relative reliability was excellent for all four conditions with an Interclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC ranging from 0.91 to 0.93. The variation between repeated measurements for each condition was minimal with standard error of measurement (SEM of 0.21–0.59 s, suggestive of excellent absolute reliability. The sensitivity to change as measured by smallest real change (SRC was 1.27 s for eyes open static, 1.63 s for eyes closed static, 0.58 s for eyes open dynamic, and 0.61 s for eyes closed static. Conclusions: Timed standing balance test is an easy to administer test and sensitive to change with strong absolute and relative reliabilities, an important first step in establishing its utility as a clinical balance measure in children with DS.

  19. Seasonal changes in the atmospheric heat balance simulated by the GISS general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, P. H.; Chow, S.; Helfand, H. M.; Quirk, W. J.; Somerville, R. C. J.

    1975-01-01

    Tests of the ability of numerical general circulation models to simulate the atmosphere have focussed so far on simulations of the January climatology. These models generally present boundary conditions such as sea surface temperature, but this does not prevent testing their ability to simulate seasonal changes in atmospheric processes that accompany presented seasonal changes in boundary conditions. Experiments to simulate changes in the zonally averaged heat balance are discussed since many simplified models of climatic processes are based solely on this balance.

  20. Changes in inorganic matrices of dye sensitized solar cells during preparation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graaf, Harald; Baumgaertel, Thomas; Luettich, Franziska; Kehr, Mirko [Institute of Physics, University of Technology Chemnitz (Germany); Maedler, Carsten [Institute of Physics, University of Technology Chemnitz (Germany); Department of Physics, Boston University, Boston, MA (United States); Oekermann, Thorsten [Institute of Physical Chemistry and Electrochemistry, Leibniz University Hannover (Germany)

    2010-07-01

    Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSC) containing zinc oxide (ZnO) as the inorganic semiconductor and organic dye molecules as the sensitizer are well known devices with high efficiency. Such DSSC are prepared by electrochemical deposition of an aqueous zinc salt solution including organic molecules as templates. The template is desorbed in a second step to obtain a porous ZnO network. As a final step the sensitizing organic molecules were re-adsorped from solution. Within these different processing steps the structure of the ZnO can be influenced. We will discuss the growth mechanism during film deposition e.g. due to different template molecules. Also the crystal structure changes accompanying the desorption process, which is performed in an alkaline aqueous solution. Different techniques as X-ray investigations, optical absorption and scanning probe methods are used to identify the variations in different cells and within the production process.

  1. Sensitivity of health sector indicators' response to climate change in Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dovie, Delali B K; Dzodzomenyo, Mawuli; Ogunseitan, Oladele A

    2017-01-01

    There is accumulating evidence that the emerging burden of global climate change threatens the fidelity of routine indicators for disease detection and management of risks to public health. The threat partially reflects the conservative character of the health sector and the reluctance to adopt new indicators, despite the growing awareness that existing environmental health indicators were developed to respond to risks that may no longer be relevant, and are too simplistic to also act as indicators for newer global-scale risk factors. This study sought to understand the scope of existing health indicators, while aiming to discover new indicators for building resilience against three climate sensitive diseases (cerebro spinal meningitis, malaria and diarrhea). Therefore, new potential indicators derived from human and biophysical origins were developed to complement existing health indicators, thereby creating climate-sensitive battery of robust composite indices of resilience in health planning. Using Ghana's health sector as a case study systematic international literature review, national expert consultation, and focus group outcomes yielded insights into the relevance, sensitivity and impacts of 45 indicators in 11 categories in responding to climate change. In total, 65% of the indicators were sensitive to health impacts of climate change; 24% acted directly; 31% synergistically; and 45% indirectly, with indicator relevance strongly associated with type of health response. Epidemiological indicators (e.g. morbidity) and health demographic indicators (e.g. population structure) require adjustments with external indicators (e.g. biophysical, policy) to be resilient to climate change. Therefore, selective integration of social and ecological indicators with existing public health indicators improves the fidelity of the health sector to adopt more robust planning of interdependent systems to build resilience. The study highlights growing uncertainties in

  2. A generalized matching law analysis of cocaine vs. food choice in rhesus monkeys: effects of candidate 'agonist-based' medications on sensitivity to reinforcement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutsell, Blake A; Negus, S Stevens; Banks, Matthew L

    2015-01-01

    We have previously demonstrated reductions in cocaine choice produced by either continuous 14-day phendimetrazine and d-amphetamine treatment or removing cocaine availability under a cocaine vs. food choice procedure in rhesus monkeys. The aim of the present investigation was to apply the concatenated generalized matching law (GML) to cocaine vs. food choice dose-effect functions incorporating sensitivity to both the relative magnitude and price of each reinforcer. Our goal was to determine potential behavioral mechanisms underlying pharmacological treatment efficacy to decrease cocaine choice. A multi-model comparison approach was used to characterize dose- and time-course effects of both pharmacological and environmental manipulations on sensitivity to reinforcement. GML models provided an excellent fit of the cocaine choice dose-effect functions in individual monkeys. Reductions in cocaine choice by both pharmacological and environmental manipulations were principally produced by systematic decreases in sensitivity to reinforcer price and non-systematic changes in sensitivity to reinforcer magnitude. The modeling approach used provides a theoretical link between the experimental analysis of choice and pharmacological treatments being evaluated as candidate 'agonist-based' medications for cocaine addiction. The analysis suggests that monoamine releaser treatment efficacy to decrease cocaine choice was mediated by selectively increasing the relative price of cocaine. Overall, the net behavioral effect of these pharmacological treatments was to increase substitutability of food pellets, a nondrug reinforcer, for cocaine. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Groundwater and climate change: a sensitivity analysis for the Grand Forks aquifer, southern British Columbia, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, D. M.; Mackie, D. C.; Wei, M.

    The Grand Forks aquifer, located in south-central British Columbia, Canada was used as a case study area for modeling the sensitivity of an aquifer to changes in recharge and river stage consistent with projected climate-change scenarios for the region. Results suggest that variations in recharge to the aquifer under the different climate-change scenarios, modeled under steady-state conditions, have a much smaller impact on the groundwater system than changes in river-stage elevation of the Kettle and Granby Rivers, which flow through the valley. All simulations showed relatively small changes in the overall configuration of the water table and general direction of groundwater flow. High-recharge and low-recharge simulations resulted in approximately a +0.05 m increase and a -0.025 m decrease, respectively, in water-table elevations throughout the aquifer. Simulated changes in river-stage elevation, to reflect higher-than-peak-flow levels (by 20 and 50%), resulted in average changes in the water-table elevation of 2.72 and 3.45 m, respectively. Simulated changes in river-stage elevation, to reflect lower-than-baseflow levels (by 20 and 50%), resulted in average changes in the water-table elevation of -0.48 and -2.10 m, respectively. Current observed water-table elevations in the valley are consistent with an average river-stage elevation (between current baseflow and peak-flow stages). L'aquifère de Grand Forks, situé en Colombie britannique (Canada), a été utilisé comme zone d'étude pour modéliser la sensibilité d'un aquifère à des modifications de la recharge et du niveau de la rivière, correspondant à des scénarios envisagés de changement climatique dans cette région. Les résultats font apparaître que les variations de recharge de l'aquifère pour différents scénarios de changement climatique, modélisées pour des conditions de régime permanent, ont un impact sur le système aquifère beaucoup plus faible que les changements du niveau des

  4. Applying an intelligent model and sensitivity analysis to inspect mass transfer kinetics, shrinkage and crust color changes of deep-fat fried ostrich meat cubes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amiryousefi, Mohammad Reza; Mohebbi, Mohebbat; Khodaiyan, Faramarz

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to use image analysis and artificial neural network (ANN) to predict mass transfer kinetics as well as color changes and shrinkage of deep-fat fried ostrich meat cubes. Two generalized feedforward networks were separately developed by using the operation conditions as inputs. Results based on the highest numerical quantities of the correlation coefficients between the experimental versus predicted values, showed proper fitting. Sensitivity analysis results of selected ANNs showed that among the input variables, frying temperature was the most sensitive to moisture content (MC) and fat content (FC) compared to other variables. Sensitivity analysis results of selected ANNs showed that MC and FC were the most sensitive to frying temperature compared to other input variables. Similarly, for the second ANN architecture, microwave power density was the most impressive variable having the maximum influence on both shrinkage percentage and color changes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Contact sensitization to cosmetic series of allergens in a general population in Beijing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jian; Li, Lin-Feng

    2014-03-01

    Cosmetic allergic contact dermatitis (CACD) due to common cosmetic allergens in standard series has been extensively studied; however, the prevalence of contact allergy to other cosmetic allergens other than those in standard series is largely unknown. In this study, the frequency of contact sensitization to a European cosmetic series of allergens (Chemotechnique Diagnostics, Vellinge, Sweden) in healthy university student volunteers were detected in Beijing. Of 201 students studied, fifty-eight exhibited positive results, and 9 of them reported had cosmetics related dermatitis previously. The total positivity rate was not correlated to gender. The leading allergens were thimerosal (19.4%), shellac (3.0%), cocamidopropyl betaine (2.0%), hexamethylenetetramine (1.5%), dodecyl gallate (1.5%), hexahydro-1,3,5-tris-(2-hydroxyethyl)triazine (1.0%) and methyldibromo glutaronitrile (1.0%). The positivity rate of thimerosal patch test in men (9.8%) was lower than that of women (23.6%, P cosmetic allergens in men and women (P > 0.05, Chi square test). These results suggested that some cosmetic-related contact allergies may be missed by just testing patients with the European standard series or T.R.U.E. test system only, we recommend shellac, cocamidopropyl betaine, hexamethylenetetramine and dodecyl gallate as the additionally candidates for patch testing in patients with suspected CACD. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  6. Simrank: Rapid and sensitive general-purpose k-mer search tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeSantis, T.Z.; Keller, K.; Karaoz, U.; Alekseyenko, A.V; Singh, N.N.S.; Brodie, E.L; Pei, Z.; Andersen, G.L; Larsen, N.

    2011-04-01

    Terabyte-scale collections of string-encoded data are expected from consortia efforts such as the Human Microbiome Project (http://nihroadmap.nih.gov/hmp). Intra- and inter-project data similarity searches are enabled by rapid k-mer matching strategies. Software applications for sequence database partitioning, guide tree estimation, molecular classification and alignment acceleration have benefited from embedded k-mer searches as sub-routines. However, a rapid, general-purpose, open-source, flexible, stand-alone k-mer tool has not been available. Here we present a stand-alone utility, Simrank, which allows users to rapidly identify database strings the most similar to query strings. Performance testing of Simrank and related tools against DNA, RNA, protein and human-languages found Simrank 10X to 928X faster depending on the dataset. Simrank provides molecular ecologists with a high-throughput, open source choice for comparing large sequence sets to find similarity.

  7. Portfolio Sensitivity Model for Analyzing Credit Risk Caused by Structural and Macroeconomic Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goran Klepac

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new model for portfolio sensitivity analysis. The model is suitable for decision support in financial institutions, specifically for portfolio planning and portfolio management. The basic advantage of the model is the ability to create simulations for credit risk predictions in cases when we virtually change portfolio structure and/or macroeconomic factors. The model takes a holistic approach to portfolio management consolidating all organizational segments in the process such as marketing, retail and risk.

  8. Cloud-turbulence interactions: Sensitivity of a general circulation model to closure assumptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brinkop, S.; Roeckner, E.

    1993-01-01

    Several approaches to parameterize the turbulent transport of momentum, heat, water vapour and cloud water for use in a general circulation model (GCM) have been tested in one-dimensional and three-dimensional model simulations. The schemes differ with respect to their closure assumptions (conventional eddy diffusivity model versus turbulent kinetic energy closure) and also regarding their treatment of cloud-turbulence interactions. The basis properties of these parameterizations are discussed first in column simulations of a stratocumulus-topped atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) under a strong subsidence inversion during the KONTROL experiment in the North Sea. It is found that the K-models tend to decouple the cloud layer from the adjacent layers because the turbulent activity is calculated from local variables. The higher-order scheme performs better in this respect because internally generated turbulence can be transported up and down through the action of turbulent diffusion. Thus, the TKE-scheme provides not only a better link between the cloud and the sub-cloud layer but also between the cloud and the inversion as a result of cloud-top entrainment. In the stratocumulus case study, where the cloud is confined by a pronounced subsidence inversion, increased entrainment favours cloud dilution through enhanced evaporation of cloud droplets. In the GCM study, however, additional cloud-top entrainment supports cloud formation because indirect cloud generating processes are promoted through efficient ventilation of the ABL, such as the enhanced moisture supply by surface evaporation and the increased depth of the ABL. As a result, tropical convection is more vigorous, the hydrological cycle is intensified, the whole troposphere becomes warmer and moister in general and the cloudiness in the upper part of the ABL is increased. (orig.)

  9. General collection efficiency in liquid iso-octane and tetramethylsilane used as sensitive media in a thimble ionization chamber

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johansson, B.E.; Bahar-Gogani, J.; Wickman, G.

    1999-01-01

    The general collection efficiency in the dielectric liquids iso-octane (C 8 H 18 ; 2-2-4 trimethylpentane) and tetramethylsilane (Si(CH 3 ) 4 ), used as sensitive media in a thimble liquid ionization chamber (LIC) with a liquid layer thickness of 1 mm, has been studied. Measurements were made for continuous radiation at varying dose rates using 140 keV photons from the decay of 99m Tc for chamber polarizing voltages of 50, 100 and 500 V. The maximum dose rate in each measurement session was about 150 mGy min -1 . The experimental results were compared with theoretical general collection efficiencies calculated by the equation for the general collection efficiency in gases. The results show that the general collection efficiency in a thimble LIC for continuous radiation can be calculated with the equation for the general collection efficiency in gas ionization chambers, using the same chamber geometry correction factors and analogous characteristic ion recombination parameters for the dielectric liquids. (author)

  10. Vulnerability and adaptation of ecologically sensitive mangrove habitats to the changing climate

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Jagtap, T.G.; Kulkarni, V.A.; Verlekar, X.N.

    has risen 10-20cm during the Twentieth century. General Circulation Models (GCM) projected a 9.88cm rise in sea level, increased extreme weather events and precipitation over the Asian region (UNEP / UNESCO, 1992, IPPC, 2001). However a lot... Scientific Assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 578 pp. INQUA, 2000. Homepage of the Commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution, www.pog.su.se/sea. Sea level changes, News and Views, The Maldives Project IPPC, 2001. Climate...

  11. Performance and sensitivity analysis of the generalized likelihood ratio method for failure detection. M.S. Thesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bueno, R. A.

    1977-01-01

    Results of the generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) technique for the detection of failures in aircraft application are presented, and its relationship to the properties of the Kalman-Bucy filter is examined. Under the assumption that the system is perfectly modeled, the detectability and distinguishability of four failure types are investigated by means of analysis and simulations. Detection of failures is found satisfactory, but problems in identifying correctly the mode of a failure may arise. These issues are closely examined as well as the sensitivity of GLR to modeling errors. The advantages and disadvantages of this technique are discussed, and various modifications are suggested to reduce its limitations in performance and computational complexity.

  12. Relevance of gender-sensitive policies and general health indicators to compare the status of South Asian women's health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Roopan; Stewart, Donna E

    2011-01-01

    despite goals for gender equity in South Asia, the relationship between gender-sensitive policies and the empowerment of women is complex and requires an analysis of how policies align with a broad set of social, cultural, political, and economic indicators that relate to women's health. through a review of four documents under the umbrella of the World Health Organization and the United Nations, a list of 17 gender-sensitive policy and 17 general health indicators was generated with a focus on health, education, economic, and political empowerment and violence against women. A series of policy documents and international and national databases that are accessible in the public domain were the major tools used to find supporting documentation to address women's health outcomes in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. all five South Asian countries had several gender-sensitive policies that were measurable by indicators that contribute to health. Examination of political and economic status, birth sex ratios, human trafficking, illiteracy rates, maternal mortality rates, contraception prevalence, fertility rates, knowledge of HIV/AIDS prevention, access to skilled birth attendants, and microfinance show that large gender inequities still prevail despite the presence of gender-sensitive policies. in many cases, the presence of gender-sensitive policies did not reflect the realization of gender equity over a wide range of indicators. Although the economic, political, social, and cultural climates of the five countries may differ, the integration of women's needs into the formulation, implementation, and monitoring of policies is a universal necessity to achieve positive outcomes. 2011 Jacobs Institute of Women's Health. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  13. A Literature Review of Shock Sensitivity Changes of TATB Due to Thermal Cycling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ritter, Boyd [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); New Mexico Inst. of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM (United States). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

    2016-07-15

    Insensitive high explosives (IHEs) based on 1,3,5-triamino 2,4,6-trinitro-benzene (TATB) are the IHEs of choice for use in nuclear warheads over conventional high explosives when safety is the only consideration, because they are very insensitive to thermal or mechanical initiation stimuli. It is this inherent insensitivity to high temperatures, shock, and impact, which provides detonation design challenges when designing TATB explosive systems while at the same time providing a significant level of protection against accidental initiation. Although classified as IHE, over the past few years the focus on explosive safety has demonstrated that the shock sensitivity of TATB is influenced with respect to temperature. A number of studies have been performed on TATB and TATB formulations, plastic bonded explosives (PBX) 9502, and LX-17-01 (LX-17), which demonstrates the increase in shock sensitivity of the explosive after it has been preheated or thermally cycled over various temperature ranges. Many studies suggest the change in sensitivity is partly due to the decomposition rates of the temperature elevated TATB. Others point to the coefficient of thermal expansion, the crystalline structures of TATB and/or the combination of all factors, which create voids which can become active hot spots. During thermal cycling, TATB is known to undergo an irreversible increase in specific volume called ratchet growth. This increase in specific volume correlates to a decrease in density. This decrease in density and increase in volume, demonstrate the creations of additional void spaces which could serve as potential new initiation hot spots thus, increasing the overall sensitivity of the HE. This literature review evaluates the published works to understand why the shock sensitivity of TATB-based plastic bonded explosives (PBXs) changes with temperature.

  14. Semiarid watershed response in central New Mexico and its sensitivity to climate variability and change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. R. Vivoni

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Hydrologic processes in the semiarid regions of the Southwest United States are considered to be highly susceptible to variations in temperature and precipitation characteristics due to the effects of climate change. Relatively little is known about the potential impacts of climate change on the basin hydrologic response, namely streamflow, evapotranspiration and recharge, in the region. In this study, we present the development and application of a continuous, semi-distributed watershed model for climate change studies in semiarid basins of the Southwest US. Our objective is to capture hydrologic processes in large watersheds, while accounting for the spatial and temporal variations of climate forcing and basin properties in a simple fashion. We apply the model to the Río Salado basin in central New Mexico since it exhibits both a winter and summer precipitation regime and has a historical streamflow record for model testing purposes. Subsequently, we use a sequence of climate change scenarios that capture observed trends for winter and summer precipitation, as well as their interaction with higher temperatures, to perform long-term ensemble simulations of the basin response. Results of the modeling exercise indicate that precipitation uncertainty is amplified in the hydrologic response, in particular for processes that depend on a soil saturation threshold. We obtained substantially different hydrologic sensitivities for winter and summer precipitation ensembles, indicating a greater sensitivity to more intense summer storms as compared to more frequent winter events. In addition, the impact of changes in precipitation characteristics overwhelmed the effects of increased temperature in the study basin. Nevertheless, combined trends in precipitation and temperature yield a more sensitive hydrologic response throughout the year.

  15. Soil warming increases metabolic quotients of soil microorganisms without changes in temperature sensitivity of soil respiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marañón-Jiménez, Sara; Soong, Jenniffer L.; Leblans, Niki I. W.; Sigurdsson, Bjarni D.; Dauwe, Steven; Fransen, Erik; Janssens, Ivan A.

    2017-04-01

    Increasing temperatures can accelerate soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition and release large amounts of CO2 to the atmosphere, potentially inducing climate change feedbacks. Alterations to the temperature sensitivity and metabolic pathways of soil microorganisms in response to soil warming can play a key role in these soil carbon (C) losses. Here, we present results of an incubation experiment using soils from a geothermal gradient in Iceland that have been subjected to different intensities of soil warming (+0, +1, +3, +5, +10 and +20 °C above ambient) over seven years. We hypothesized that 7 years of soil warming would led to a depletion of labile organic substrates, with a subsequent decrease of the "apparent" temperature sensitivity of soil respiration. Associated to this C limitation and more sub-optimal conditions for microbial growth, we also hypothesized increased microbial metabolic quotients (soil respiration per unit of microbial biomass), which is associated with increases in the relative amount of C invested into catabolic pathways along the warming gradient. Soil respiration and basal respiration rates decreased with soil warming intensity, in parallel with a decline in soil C availability. Contrasting to our first hypothesis, we did not detect changes in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration with soil warming or on the availability of nutrients and of labile C substrates at the time of incubation. However, in agreement to our second hypothesis, microbial metabolic quotients (soil respiration per unit of microbial biomass) increased at warmer temperatures, while the C retained in biomass decreased as substrate became limiting. Long-term (7 years) temperature increases thus triggered a change in the metabolic functioning of the soil microbial communities towards increasing energy costs for maintenance or resource acquisition, thereby lowering the capacity of C retention and stabilization of warmed soils. These results highlight the need

  16. Why general practitioners and consultants change their clinical practice: a critical incident study.

    OpenAIRE

    Allery, L. A.; Owen, P. A.; Robling, M. R.

    1997-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To describe the complete range of factors which doctors recognise as changing their clinical practice and provide a measure of how often education is involved in change. DESIGN: Interviews using the critical incident technique. SETTING: Primary and secondary care. SUBJECTS: Random sample of 50 general practitioners and 50 consultants. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Categories of reasons for change in clinical practice. RESULTS: Doctors described 361 changes in clinical practice, with an av...

  17. Climate Change Sensitivity of Multi-Species Afforestation in Semi-Arid Benin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florent Noulèkoun

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The early growth stage is critical in the response of trees to climate change and variability. It is not clear, however, what climate metrics are best to define the early-growth sensitivity in assessing adaptation strategies of young forests to climate change. Using a combination of field experiments and modelling, we assessed the climate sensitivity of two promising afforestation species, Jatropha curcas L. and Moringa oleifera Lam., by analyzing their predicted climate–growth relationships in the initial two years after planting on degraded cropland in the semi-arid zone of Benin. The process-based WaNuLCAS model (version 4.3, World Agroforestry Centre, Bogor, Indonesia was used to simulate aboveground biomass growth for each year in the climate record (1981–2016, either as the first or as the second year of tree growth. Linear mixed models related the annual biomass growth to climate indicators, and climate sensitivity indices quantified climate–growth relationships. In the first year, the length of dry spells had the strongest effect on tree growth. In the following year, the annual water deficit and length of dry season became the strongest predictors. Simulated rooting depths greater than those observed in the experiments enhanced biomass growth under extreme dry conditions and reduced sapling sensitivity to drought. Projected increases in aridity implied significant growth reduction, but a multi-species approach to afforestation using species that are able to develop deep-penetrating roots should increase the resilience of young forests to climate change. The results illustrate that process-based modelling, combined with field experiments, can be effective in assessing the climate–growth relationships of tree species.

  18. Anxiety Sensitivity Dimensions and Generalized Anxiety‏ ‏Severity: The ‎Mediating Role of Experiential Avoidance and Repetitive‏ ‏Negative Thinking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parvaneh‏ ‏ Mohammadkhani

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Generalized anxiety disorder is one of the most common anxiety disorders in the general ‎population. Several studies suggest that anxiety sensitivity is a vulnerability factor in generalized ‎anxiety severity. However, some other studies suggest that negative repetitive thinking and ‎experiential avoidance as response factors can explain this relationship. Therefore, this study ‎aimed to investigate the mediating role of experiential avoidance and negative repetitive thinking ‎in the relationship between anxiety sensitivity and generalized anxiety severity.‎Method: This was a cross-sectional and correlational study. A sample of 475 university students was ‎selected through stratified sampling method. The participants completed Anxiety Sensitivity ‎Inventory-3, Acceptance and Action Questionnaire-II, Perseverative Thinking Questionnaire, and ‎Generalized Anxiety Disorder 7-item Scale. Data were analyzed by Pearson correlation, multiple ‎regression analysis and path analysis.‎Results: The results revealed a positive relationship between anxiety sensitivity, particularly cognitive ‎anxiety sensitivity, experiential avoidance, repetitive thinking and generalized anxiety severity. In ‎addition, findings showed that repetitive thinking, but not experiential avoidance, fully mediated ‎the relationship between cognitive anxiety sensitivity and generalized anxiety severity. α Level ‎was p<0.005.‎Conclusion: Consistent with the trans-diagnostic hypothesis, anxiety sensitivity predicts generalized anxiety‏ ‏severity, but its effect is due to the generating repetitive negative thought.‎

  19. Sensitivity of total stress to changes in externally applied water pressure in KBS-3 buffer bentonite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrington, J.F.; Birchall, D.J.

    2007-04-01

    In the current Swedish repository design concept, composite copper and steel canisters containing spent nuclear fuel will be placed in large diameter disposal boreholes drilled into the floor of the repository tunnels. The space around each canister will be filled with pre-compacted bentonite which over time will draw in the surrounding ground water and swell, closing up any construction joints. However, for the purposes of performance assessment, it is necessary to consider the effect of glacial loading of a future repository and its impact on the mechanical behaviour of the bentonite, in particular, the sensitivity of total stress to changes in porewater pressure (backpressure). Two experimental histories have been undertaken using a custom-designed constant volume and radial flow (CVRF) apparatus. In both tests backpressure was varied in a number of incremental and decremental cycles while total stress, porewater pressure and volumetric flow rate were continuously monitored. The swelling pressure of the buffer clay at dry densities of 1.8 Mg/m 3 and 1.61 Mg/m 3 was determined to be around 5.5 MPa and 7.2 MPa respectively. For initial ascending porewater pressure histories the average proportionality factor α ranged from 0.86 and 0.92. Data exhibited a general trend of increasing α with increasing backpressure. In test Mx80-11 this was supported by analysis of the water inflow data which indicated a reduction in system compressibility. Asymptotic values of porewater pressure within the clay are in good agreement with externally applied backpressure values. Inspection of data provides no evidence for the development of hydraulic thresholds within the clay, subject to the boundary conditions of this test geometry. Analysis of the stress data demonstrates significant hysteresis between ascending and descending porewater pressure histories. The amount of hysteresis appears to be linked to the magnitude of the backpressure applied to the specimen, suggesting some

  20. Sensitivity of total stress to changes in externally applied water pressure in KBS-3 buffer bentonite

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harrington, J.F.; Birchall, D.J. [British Geological Survey, Chemical and Biological Hazards Programme, Kingsley Dunham Centre (United Kingdom)

    2007-04-15

    In the current Swedish repository design concept, composite copper and steel canisters containing spent nuclear fuel will be placed in large diameter disposal boreholes drilled into the floor of the repository tunnels. The space around each canister will be filled with pre-compacted bentonite which over time will draw in the surrounding ground water and swell, closing up any construction joints. However, for the purposes of performance assessment, it is necessary to consider the effect of glacial loading of a future repository and its impact on the mechanical behaviour of the bentonite, in particular, the sensitivity of total stress to changes in porewater pressure (backpressure). Two experimental histories have been undertaken using a custom-designed constant volume and radial flow (CVRF) apparatus. In both tests backpressure was varied in a number of incremental and decremental cycles while total stress, porewater pressure and volumetric flow rate were continuously monitored. The swelling pressure of the buffer clay at dry densities of 1.8 Mg/m{sup 3} and 1.61 Mg/m{sup 3} was determined to be around 5.5 MPa and 7.2 MPa respectively. For initial ascending porewater pressure histories the average proportionality factor {alpha} ranged from 0.86 and 0.92. Data exhibited a general trend of increasing {alpha} with increasing backpressure. In test Mx80-11 this was supported by analysis of the water inflow data which indicated a reduction in system compressibility. Asymptotic values of porewater pressure within the clay are in good agreement with externally applied backpressure values. Inspection of data provides no evidence for the development of hydraulic thresholds within the clay, subject to the boundary conditions of this test geometry. Analysis of the stress data demonstrates significant hysteresis between ascending and descending porewater pressure histories. The amount of hysteresis appears to be linked to the magnitude of the backpressure applied to the specimen

  1. 75 FR 73861 - Change in Rates and Classes of General Applicability for Competitive Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-29

    ... percent for parcels picked up at a return Network Distribution Center (RNDC) and 8.0 percent for parcels... Part III Postal Service Change in Rates and Classes of General Applicability for Competitive...; [[Page 73862

  2. Sensitivity of very small glaciers in the Swiss Alps to future climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias eHuss

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Very small glaciers (<0.5 km2 account for more than 80% of the total number of glaciers in mid- to low-latitude mountain ranges. Although their total area and volume is small compared to larger glaciers, they are a relevant component of the cryosphere, contributing to landscape formation, local hydrology and sea-level rise. Worldwide glacier monitoring mostly focuses on medium-sized to large glaciers leaving us with a limited understanding of the response of dwarf glaciers to climate change. In this study, we present a comprehensive modeling framework to assess past and future changes of very small glaciers at the mountain-range scale. Among other processes our model accounts for snow redistribution, changes in glacier geometry and the time-varying effect of supraglacial debris. It computes the mass balance distribution, the englacial temperature regime and proglacial runoff. The evolution of 1,133 individual glaciers in the Swiss Alps is modeled in detail until 2060 based on new distributed data sets. Our results indicate that 52% of all very small glaciers in Switzerland will completely disappear within the next 25 years. However, a few avalanche-fed glaciers at low elevation might be able to survive even substantial atmospheric warming. We find highly variable sensitivities of very small glaciers to air temperature change, with gently-sloping, low-elevation, and debris-covered glaciers being most sensitive.

  3. Structural changes in leaves and roots are anatomical markers of aluminum sensitivity in sunflower

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel da Silva de Jesus

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Aluminum (Al toxicity in plants evidences the importance of genotype evaluation to the identification of tolerance markers. This study aimed at evaluating the effects of aluminum stress on the relative water content, membrane damages and anatomical changes, in Al-tolerant and Al-sensitive sunflower cultivars. Sunflower plants [Catissol (Al-tolerant and IAC-Uruguai (Al-sensitive] were grown in nutrient solution (control or nutrient solution containing 0.15 mM of AlCl3 (Al-stress treatment, in a greenhouse. The experimental design was completely randomized, in a factorial arrangement consisting of four harvest times x two sunflower cultivars x two Al levels, with four replications. The results showed that Al negatively affected the absolute integrity percentage and relative water content only for the IAC-Uruguay cultivar. These results in the stressed leaves of the Al-sensitive cultivar may be due to damage in the xylem structure. In addition, the increase in leaf blade thickness and parenchyma layers, as well as lignification of root tissues, are important traits of IAC-Uruguay plants and may be used as anatomical markers of Al sensitivity in sunflower.

  4. Changes in the radiation sensitivity of mouse skin during fractionated and prolonged treatments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruifrok, A.C.C.; Mason, K.A.; Hunter, N.; Thames, H.D.

    1994-01-01

    Reactions of the skin of the right thigh of mice were used as an experimental model to test possible changes in the radiosensitivity of mouse skin, as represented by changes in the linear-quadratic (LQ) model parameters α and β, as a function of fractionation interval and overall treatment time. In the first series of experiments, variable numbers of 3-Gy fractions with intervals of 6, 24 or 48 h were applied, followed by top-up doses to increase the skin damage to a level that could be scored. The results showed that mouse skin is more sensitive to 3-Gy fractions applied with 48-h intervals than to 3-Gy fractions applied with 6- or 24-h intervals. In the second series of experiments we used single-dose or fractonated test treatments for previously unirradiated mice and mice treated with priming doses of 10, 20 or 30 Gy given 1-18 days before the test treatment. The sensitivity appeared to be higher after intervals of 14-18 days than after 1-10 days after priming treatments of 20 and 30 Gy. The increased sensitivity 18 days after 20 Gy was mainly the result of an increase in the β component of the LQ model; higher values of α were also determined. We conclude that the radiosensitivity of mouse skin is higher during a radiation-induced proliferative response. 28 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

  5. Residual fMRI sensitivity for identity changes in acquired prosopagnosia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Christopher J; Iaria, Giuseppe; Duchaine, Bradley C; Barton, Jason J S

    2013-01-01

    While a network of cortical regions contribute to face processing, the lesions in acquired prosopagnosia are highly variable, and likely result in different combinations of spared and affected regions of this network. To assess the residual functional sensitivities of spared regions in prosopagnosia, we designed a rapid event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) experiment that included pairs of faces with same or different identities and same or different expressions. By measuring the release from adaptation to these facial changes we determined the residual sensitivity of face-selective regions-of-interest. We tested three patients with acquired prosopagnosia, and all three of these patients demonstrated residual sensitivity for facial identity changes in surviving fusiform and occipital face areas of either the right or left hemisphere, but not in the right posterior superior temporal sulcus. The patients also showed some residual capabilities for facial discrimination with normal performance on the Benton Facial Recognition Test, but impaired performance on more complex tasks of facial discrimination. We conclude that fMRI can demonstrate residual processing of facial identity in acquired prosopagnosia, that this adaptation can occur in the same structures that show similar processing in healthy subjects, and further, that this adaptation may be related to behavioral indices of face perception.

  6. Residual fMRI sensitivity for identity changes in acquired prosopagnosia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher J Fox

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available While a network of cortical regions contribute to face processing, the lesions in acquired prosopagnosia are highly variable, and likely result in different combinations of spared and affected regions of this network. To assess the residual functional sensitivities of spared regions in prosopagnosia, we designed a rapid event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI experiment that included pairs of faces with same or different identities and same or different expressions. By measuring the release from adaptation to these facial changes we determined the residual sensitivity of face-selective regions-of-interest. We tested three patients with acquired prosopagnosia, and all three of these patients demonstrated residual sensitivity for facial identity changes in surviving fusiform and occipital face areas of either the right or left hemisphere, but not in the right posterior superior temporal sulcus. The patients also showed some residual capabilities for facial discrimination with normal performance on the Benton Facial Recognition Test, but impaired performance on more complex tasks of facial discrimination. We conclude that fMRI can demonstrate residual processing of facial identity in acquired prosopagnosia, that this adaptation can occur in the same structures that show similar processing in healthy subjects, and further, that this adaptation may be related to behavioral indices of face perception.

  7. Distrust as a Disease-Avoidance Strategy:Individual Differences in Disgust Sensitivity Regulate Generalized Social Trust

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lene Aarøe

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Throughout human evolutionary history, cooperative contact with others has been fundamental for human survival. At the same time, social contact has been a source of threats. In this article, we focus on one particular viable threat, communicable disease, and investigate how motivations to avoid pathogens influence people's propensity to interact and cooperate with others, as measured by individual differences in generalized social trust. While extant studies on pathogen avoidance have argued that such motivations should prompt people to avoid interactions with outgroups specifically, we argue that these motivations should prompt people to avoid others more broadly. Empirically, we utilise two convenience samples and a large nationally representative sample of US citizens to demonstrate the existence of a robust and replicable effect of individual differences in pathogen disgust sensitivity on generalized social trust. We furthermore compare the effects of pathogen disgust sensitivity on generalised social trust and outgroup prejudice and explore whether generalised social trust to some extent constitutes a pathway between pathogen avoidance motivations and prejudice.

  8. Generalization of Poisson distribution for the case of changing probability of consequential events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kushnirenko, E.

    1995-01-01

    The generalization of the Poisson distribution for the case of changing probabilities of the consequential events is done. It is shown that the classical Poisson distribution is the special case of this generalized distribution when the probabilities of the consequential events are constant. The using of the generalized Poisson distribution gives the possibility in some cases to obtain analytical result instead of making Monte-Carlo calculation

  9. Effects of changes in carbonate chemistry speciation on Coccolithus braarudii: a discussion of coccolithophorid sensitivities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Riebesell

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Ocean acidification and associated shifts in carbonate chemistry speciation induced by increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 have the potential to impact marine biota in various ways. The process of biogenic calcification, for instance, is usually shown to be negatively affected. In coccolithophores, an important group of pelagic calcifiers, changes in cellular calcification rates in response to changing ocean carbonate chemistry appear to differ among species. By applying a wider CO2 range we show that a species previously reported insensitive to seawater acidification, Coccolithus braarudii, responds both in terms of calcification and photosynthesis, although at higher levels of CO2. Thus, observed differences between species seem to be related to individual sensitivities while the underlying mechanisms could be the same. On this basis we develop a conceptual model of coccolithophorid calcification and photosynthesis in response to CO2-induced changes in seawater carbonate chemistry speciation.

  10. Maternal insulin sensitivity is associated with oral glucose-induced changes in fetal brain activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linder, Katarzyna; Schleger, Franziska; Ketterer, Caroline; Fritsche, Louise; Kiefer-Schmidt, Isabelle; Hennige, Anita; Häring, Hans-Ulrich; Preissl, Hubert; Fritsche, Andreas

    2014-06-01

    Fetal programming plays an important role in the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether maternal metabolic changes during OGTT influence fetal brain activity. Thirteen healthy pregnant women underwent an OGTT (75 g). Insulin sensitivity was determined by glucose and insulin measurements at 0, 60 and 120 min. At each time point, fetal auditory evoked fields were recorded with a fetal magnetoencephalographic device and response latencies were determined. Maternal insulin increased from a fasting level of 67 ± 25 pmol/l (mean ± SD) to 918 ± 492 pmol/l 60 min after glucose ingestion and glucose levels increased from 4.4 ± 0.3 to 7.4 ± 1.1 mmol/l. Over the same time period, fetal response latencies decreased from 297 ± 99 to 235 ± 84 ms (p = 0.01) and then remained stable until 120 min (235 ± 84 vs 251 ± 91 ms, p = 0.39). There was a negative correlation between maternal insulin sensitivity and fetal response latencies 60 min after glucose ingestion (r = 0.68, p = 0.02). After a median split of the group based on maternal insulin sensitivity, fetuses of insulin-resistant mothers showed a slower response to auditory stimuli (283 ± 79 ms) than those of insulin-sensitive mothers (178 ± 46 ms, p = 0.03). Lower maternal insulin sensitivity is associated with slower fetal brain responses. These findings provide the first evidence of a direct effect of maternal metabolism on fetal brain activity and suggest that central insulin resistance may be programmed during fetal development.

  11. Life history variation in Barents Sea fish: implications for sensitivity to fishing in a changing environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiedmann, Magnus A; Primicerio, Raul; Dolgov, Andrey; Ottesen, Camilla A M; Aschan, Michaela

    2014-09-01

    Under exploitation and environmental change, it is essential to assess the sensitivity and vulnerability of marine ecosystems to such stress. A species' response to stress depends on its life history. Sensitivity to harvesting is related to the life history "fast-slow" continuum, where "slow" species (i.e., large, long lived, and late maturing) are expected to be more sensitive to fishing than "fast" ones. We analyze life history traits variation for all common fish species in the Barents Sea and rank fishes along fast-slow gradients obtained by ordination analyses. In addition, we integrate species' fast-slow ranks with ecosystem survey data for the period 2004-2009, to assess life history variation at the community level in space and time. Arctic fishes were smaller, had shorter life spans, earlier maturation, larger offspring, and lower fecundity than boreal ones. Arctic fishes could thus be considered faster than the boreal species, even when body size was corrected for. Phylogenetically related species possessed similar life histories. Early in the study period, we found a strong spatial gradient, where members of fish assemblages in the southwestern Barents Sea displayed slower life histories than in the northeast. However, in later, warmer years, the gradient weakened caused by a northward movement of boreal species. As a consequence, the northeast experienced increasing proportions of slower fish species. This study is a step toward integrating life history traits in ecosystem-based areal management. On the basis of life history traits, we assess the fish sensitivity to fishing, at the species and community level. We show that climate warming promotes a borealization of fish assemblages in the northeast, associated with slower life histories in that area. The biology of Arctic species is still poorly known, and boreal species that now establish in the Arctic are fishery sensitive, which calls for cautious ecosystem management of these areas.

  12. Sensitivity of greenhouse summer dryness to changes in plant rooting characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milly, P.C.D.

    1997-01-01

    A possible consequence of increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere is "summer dryness," a decrease of summer plant-available soil water in middle latitudes, caused by increased availability of energy to drive evapotranspiration. Results from a numerical climate model indicate that summer dryness and related changes of land-surface water balances are highly sensitive to possible concomitant changes of plant-available water-holding capacity of soil, which depends on plant rooting depth and density. The model suggests that a 14% decrease of the soil volume whose water is accessible to plant roots would generate the same summer dryness, by one measure, as an equilibrium doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Conversely, a 14% increase of that soil volume would be sufficient to offset the summer dryness associated with carbon-dioxide doubling. Global and regional changes in rooting depth and density may result from (1) plant and plant-community responses to greenhouse warming, to carbon-dioxide fertilization, and to associated changes in the water balance and (2) anthropogenic deforestation and desertification. Given their apparently critical role, heretofore ignored, in global hydroclimatic change, such changes of rooting characteristics should be carefully evaluated using ecosystem observations, theory, and models.

  13. Monitoring voltage-sensitive membrane impedance change using radio frequency interrogation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dharia, Sameera; Rabbitt, Richard D

    2010-01-01

    Here we present a new technique to monitor dynamic conformational changes in voltage-sensitive membrane-bound proteins using radio frequency (RF) impedance measurements. Xenopus oocytes were transfected to express ShakerB-IR K(+) ion channels, and step changes in membrane potential were applied using two-electrode voltage clamp (TEVC). Simultaneously, bipolar extracellular electrodes were used to measure the RF electrical impedance across the cell (300 kHz - 1 MHz). RF current will either pass through the media, around the cell, or displace charge across the cell membrane. The change in displacement current in the cell membrane during voltage clamp resulted in measurable RF impedance change. RF impedance change during DC membrane depolarization was significantly greater in ShakerB-IR expressing oocytes than in endogenous controls at 300 kHz, 500 kHz and, to a lesser extent, 1 MHz. Since the RF were too high to modulate ShakerB-IR protein conformational state (e.g. open channel probability), impedance changes are interpreted as reflections of voltage-dependent protein conformation and associated biophysics such as ion-channel dipole interactions, fluctuations in bound water, or charged lipid head-group rotations.

  14. Modeling Answer Change Behavior: An Application of a Generalized Item Response Tree Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeon, Minjeong; De Boeck, Paul; van der Linden, Wim

    2017-01-01

    We present a novel application of a generalized item response tree model to investigate test takers' answer change behavior. The model allows us to simultaneously model the observed patterns of the initial and final responses after an answer change as a function of a set of latent traits and item parameters. The proposed application is illustrated…

  15. Water Balance and Level Change of Lake Babati, Tanzania: Sensitivity to Hydroclimatic Forcings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    René P. Mbanguka

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We develop and present a novel integrated water balance model that accounts for lake water—groundwater interactions, and apply it to the semi-closed freshwater Lake Babati system, Northern Tanzania, East Africa. The model was calibrated and used to evaluate the lake level sensitivity to changes in key hydro-climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation, humidity and cloudiness. The lake response to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5 output on possible future climate outcomes was evaluated, an essential basis in understanding future water security and flooding risk in the region. Results show high lake level sensitivity to cloudiness. Increased focus on cloud fraction measurement and interpretation could likely improve projections of lake levels and surface water availability. Modelled divergent results on the future (21st century development of Lake Babati can be explained by the precipitation output variability of CMIP5 models being comparable to the precipitation change needed to drive the water balance model from lake dry-out to overflow; this condition is likely shared with many other East African lake systems. The developed methodology could be useful in investigations on change-driving processes in complex climate—drainage basin—lake systems, which are needed to support sustainable water resource planning in data scarce tropical Africa.

  16. Prediction of the contact sensitizing potential of chemicals using analysis of gene expression changes in human THP-1 monocytes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arkusz, Joanna; Stępnik, Maciej; Sobala, Wojciech; Dastych, Jarosław

    2010-11-10

    The aim of this study was to find differentially regulated genes in THP-1 monocytic cells exposed to sensitizers and nonsensitizers and to investigate if such genes could be reliable markers for an in vitro predictive method for the identification of skin sensitizing chemicals. Changes in expression of 35 genes in the THP-1 cell line following treatment with chemicals of different sensitizing potential (from nonsensitizers to extreme sensitizers) were assessed using real-time PCR. Verification of 13 candidate genes by testing a large number of chemicals (an additional 22 sensitizers and 8 nonsensitizers) revealed that prediction of contact sensitization potential was possible based on evaluation of changes in three genes: IL8, HMOX1 and PAIMP1. In total, changes in expression of these genes allowed correct detection of sensitization potential of 21 out of 27 (78%) test sensitizers. The gene expression levels inside potency groups varied and did not allow estimation of sensitization potency of test chemicals. Results of this study indicate that evaluation of changes in expression of proposed biomarkers in THP-1 cells could be a valuable model for preliminary screening of chemicals to discriminate an appreciable majority of sensitizers from nonsensitizers. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Changes in force and calcium sensitivity in the developing avian heart.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godt, R E; Fogaça, R T; Nosek, T M

    1991-11-01

    The aim of this study was to characterize the development of the contractile properties of intact and chemically skinned muscle from chicken heart and to compare these characteristics with those of developing mammalian heart reported by others. Small trabeculae were dissected from left ventricles of Arbor Acre chickens between embryonic day 7 and young adulthood (7 weeks post-hatching). At all ages, increasing extracellular calcium (0.45-3.6 mM) progressively increased twitch force of electrically stimulated trabeculae. Twitch force at 1.8 mM extracellular calcium, normalized to cross-sectional area, increased to a maximum at 1 day post-hatching, remained constant through 3 weeks post-hatching, but then decreased at 7 weeks post-hatching. The maximal calcium-activated force of trabeculae chemically skinned with Triton X-100 detergent increased to a maximum 2 days before the time of hatching and was not significantly changed up to 7 weeks post-hatching. Over the ages studied, average twitch force in 1.8 mM calcium was between 26 and 66% of maximal calcium-activated force after skinning, suggesting that the contractile apparatus is not fully activated during the twitch in normal Ringer. In skinned trabeculae, the calcium sensitivity of the contractile apparatus was higher in the embryo than in the young adult. These age-dependent changes in calcium sensitivity are correlated with isoform switching in troponin T. A decrease in pH from 7.0 to 6.5 decreased the calcium sensitivity of the contractile apparatus to a greater degree in skinned trabeculae from young adult hearts than in those from embryonic hearts. This change in susceptibility to acidosis is temporally associated with isoform switching in troponin I.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  18. Sensitivity of the corneal-plane refractive compensation to change in power and axial position of an intraocular lens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. F. Harris

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available If an intraocular lens is displaced or if its power is changed what are the consequences for the refractive compensation of the eye?  Gaussian optics is used to obtain explicit formulae for the sensitivityof the corneal-plane refractive compensation (also called the refraction, refractive state, etc to change in power and axial displacement of a thin intraocular lens implanted in a simple eye.  In particular, for a pseudophakic Gullstrand simplified eye with intraocular lens placed 5 mm behind the cornea the sensitivity to errors in the power of the intraocular lens is about  71 . 0 − 71 for an intraocular lens of power   for an intraocular lens of power 20 D, that is, the refractive compensation decreases by about 0.71 dioptres per dioptre increase in the power of the intraocular lens.  More generally the sensitivity is approximately  ( m   0037 . 0 63 . 0 F − − 0.63 ( 003 . 0 63 . 0 − − (0.0037mF where FI is the power of the intraocular lens.  Also for Gullstrand’s simplified eye the sensitivity of refractive compensation to axial displacement of the intraocular lens is approximately linear in FI about  (64D FI, in fact.  That is, for each dioptre of the power of the intraocular lens the refractive compensation increases by about 0.064 dioptres per millimetre of axial displacement towards the retina. 

  19. Climate change sensitivity index for Pacific salmon habitat in southeast Alaska.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colin S Shanley

    Full Text Available Global climate change may become one of the most pressing challenges to Pacific Salmon conservation and management for southeast Alaska in the 21st Century. Predicted hydrologic change associated with climate change will likely challenge the ability of specific stocks to adapt to new flow regimes and resulting shifts in spawning and rearing habitats. Current research suggests egg-to-fry survival may be one of the most important freshwater limiting factors in Pacific Salmon's northern range due to more frequent flooding events predicted to scour eggs from mobile spawning substrates. A watershed-scale hydroclimatic sensitivity index was developed to map this hypothesis with an historical stream gauge station dataset and monthly multiple regression-based discharge models. The relative change from present to future watershed conditions predicted for the spawning and incubation period (September to March was quantified using an ensemble global climate model average (ECHAM5, HadCM3, and CGCM3.1 and three global greenhouse gas emission scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2 projected to the year 2080. The models showed the region's diverse physiography and climatology resulted in a relatively predictable pattern of change: northern mainland and steeper, snow-fed mountainous watersheds exhibited the greatest increases in discharge, an earlier spring melt, and a transition into rain-fed hydrologic patterns. Predicted streamflow increases for all watersheds ranged from approximately 1-fold to 3-fold for the spawning and incubation period, with increased peak flows in the spring and fall. The hydroclimatic sensitivity index was then combined with an index of currently mapped salmon habitat and species diversity to develop a research and conservation priority matrix, highlighting potentially vulnerable to resilient high-value watersheds. The resulting matrix and observed trends are put forth as a framework to prioritize long-term monitoring plans, mitigation

  20. Stress-sensitive arterial hypertension, haemodynamic changes and brain metabolites in hypertensive ISIAH rats: MRI investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seryapina, A A; Shevelev, O B; Moshkin, M P; Markel, A L; Akulov, A E

    2017-05-01

    What is the central question of this study? Stress-sensitive arterial hypertension is considered to be controlled by changes in central and peripheral sympathetic regulating mechanisms, which eventually result in haemodynamic alterations and blood pressure elevation. Therefore, study of the early stages of development of hypertension is of particular interest, because it helps in understanding the aetiology of the disease. What is the main finding and its importance? Non-invasive in vivo investigation in ISIAH rats demonstrated that establishment of sustainable stress-sensitive hypertension is accompanied by a decrease in prefrontal cortex activity and mobilization of hypothalamic processes, with considerable correlations between haemodynamic parameters and individual metabolite ratios. The study of early development of arterial hypertension in association with emotional stress is of great importance for better understanding of the aetiology and pathogenesis of the hypertensive disease. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was applied to evaluate the changes in haemodynamics and brain metabolites in 1- and 3-month-old inherited stress-induced arterial hypertension (ISIAH) rats (10 male rats) with stress-sensitive arterial hypertension and in control normotensive Wistar Albino Glaxo (WAG) rats (eight male rats). In the 3-month-old ISIAH rats, the age-dependent increase in blood pressure was associated with increased blood flow through the renal arteries and decreased blood flow in the lower part of the abdominal aorta. The renal vascular resistance in the ISIAH rats decreased during ageing, although at both ages it remained higher than the renal vascular resistance in WAG rats. An integral metabolome portrait demonstrated that development of hypertension in the ISIAH rats was associated with an attenuation of the excitatory and energetic activity in the prefrontal cortex, whereas in the WAG rats the opposite age-dependent changes were observed. In contrast, in the

  1. Bariatric surgery and the changing current scope of general surgery practice: implications for general surgery residency training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mostaedi, Rouzbeh; Ali, Mohamed R; Pierce, Jonathan L; Scherer, Lynette A; Galante, Joseph M

    2015-02-01

    The scope of general surgery practice has evolved tremendously in the last 20 years. However, clinical experience in general surgery residency training has undergone relatively little change. To evaluate the current scope of academic general surgery and its implications on surgical residency. The University HealthSystem Consortium and Association of American Medical Colleges established the Faculty Practice Solution Center (FPSC) to characterize physician productivity. The FPSC is a benchmarking tool for academic medical centers created from revenue data collected from more than 90,000 physicians who practice at 95 institutions across the United States. The FPSC database was queried to evaluate the annual mean procedure frequency per surgeon (PFS) in each calendar year from 2006 through 2011. The associated work relative value units (wRVUs) were also examined to measure physician effort and skill. During the 6-year period, 146 distinct Current Procedural Terminology codes were among the top 100 procedures, and 16 of these procedures ranked in the top 10 procedures in at least 1 year. The top 10 procedures accounted for more than half (range, 52.5%-57.2%) of the total 100 PFS evaluated for each year. Laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass was consistently among the top 10 procedures in each year (PFS, 18.2-24.6). The other most frequently performed procedures included laparoscopic cholecystectomy (PFS, 30.3-43.5), upper gastrointestinal tract endoscopy (PFS, 26.5-34.3), mastectomy (PFS, 16.5-35.0), inguinal hernia repair (PFS, 15.5-22.1), and abdominal wall hernia repair (PFS, 21.6-26.1). In all years, laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass generated the highest number of wRVUs (wRVUs, 491.0-618.2), and laparoscopic cholecystectomy was regularly the next highest (wRVUs, 335.8-498.7). A significant proportion of academic general surgery is composed of bariatric surgery, yet surgical training does not sufficiently emphasize the necessary exposure to technical expertise

  2. Sensitivity of sediment magnetic records to climate change during Holocene for the northern South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, Tingping; Li, Mingkun; Zhao, Xiang; Zhu, Zhaoyu; Tian, Chengjing; Qiu, Yan; Peng, Xuechao; Hu, Qiao

    2016-05-01

    Magnetic property has been proved to be a sensitive proxy to climate change for both terrestrial and marine sediments. Based on the schedule frame established by AMS 14C dating of foraminifera, detail magnetic analyses were performed for core PC24 sediments at sampling intervals of 2 cm to discuss magnetic sensitivity of marine sediment to climate during Holocene for the northern South China Sea. The results indicated that: 1) Concentration dependent magnetic parameters are positive corresponding to variation of temperature. The frequency dependent susceptibility coefficient basically reflected the variation in humidity; 2) XARM/SIRM was more sensitive to detrital magnetite particles and SIRM/X was more effective to biogenic magnetite particles. Variations of XARM/SIRM and SIRM/X are corresponding to precipitation and temperature, respectively; 3) the Holocene Megathermal in the study area was identified as 7.5-3.4 cal. ka BP. The warmest stage of Holocene for the study area should be during 6.1 to 3.9 cal. ka BP; 4) The 8 ka cold event was characterized as cold and dry during 8.55 to 8.25 cal. ka BP; 5) During early and middle Holocene, the climate combinations were warm dry and cold wet. It turned to warm and wet after 2.7 cal. ka BP.

  3. Sensitivity of sediment magnetic records to climate change during Holocene for the northern South China Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tingping eOuyang

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Magnetic property has been proved to be a sensitive proxy to climate change for both terrestrial and marine sediments. Based on the schedule frame established by AMS 14C dating of foraminifera, detail magnetic analyses were performed for core PC24 sediments at sampling intervals of 2 cm to discuss magnetic sensitivity of marine sediment to climate during Holocene for the northern South China Sea. The results indicated that: 1 Concentration dependent magnetic parameters are positive corresponding to variation of temperature. The frequency dependent susceptibility coefficient basically reflected the variation in humidity; 2 XARM/SIRM was more sensitive to detrital magnetite particles and SIRM/X was more effective to biogenic magnetite particles. Variations of XARM/SIRM and SIRM/X are corresponding to precipitation and temperature, respectively; 3 the Holocene Megathermal in the study area was identified as 7.5-3.4 cal. ka BP. The warmest stage of Holocene for the study area should be during 6.1 to 3.9 cal. ka BP; 4 The 8 ka cold event was characterized as cold and dry during 8.55 to 8.25 cal. ka BP; 5 During early and middle Holocene, the climate combinations were warm dry and cold wet. It turned to warm and wet after 2.7 cal. ka BP.

  4. Increased Sensitivity to Pathological Brain Changes Using Co-registration of Magnetic Resonance Imaging Scans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burdett, J.; Stevens, J.; Flugel, D.; Williams, E.; Duncan, J.S.; Lemieux, L. [National Society for Epilepsy, Chalfont St Peter (United Kingdom). The MRI Unit

    2006-12-15

    Purpose: To compare automatic software-based co-registration of serial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans with conventional visual comparison, by expert neuroradiologists.Material and Methods: Sixty-four patients who were referred to our epilepsy MRI unit for cerebral imaging were identified as having potentially, non- or slow-growing lesions or cerebral atrophy and followed with sequential scans over a period of up to 8 years, resulting in a total of 92 pairs of scans. Scans were categorized as showing either lesions or atrophy. Each pair of scans was reviewed twice for the presence of change, with and without co-registration, performed using automated software. Results: Co-registration and visual reporting without co-registration were discordant in the lesions group in nine out of 69 datasets (13%), and in 16 out of 23 pairs of scans in the atrophy group (69%). The most common cause of discordance was visual reporting not detecting changes apparent by co-registration. In three cases, changes detected visually were not detected following co-registration. Conclusion: In the group of patients studied, co-registration was more sensitive for detecting changes than visual comparison, particularly with respect to atrophic changes of the brain. With the increasing availability of sophisticated independent consoles attached to MRI scanners that may be used for image co-registration, we propose that serial T1-weighted volumetric MRI brain co-registration should be considered for integration into routine clinical practice to assess patients with suspected progressive disease.

  5. Increased Sensitivity to Pathological Brain Changes Using Co-registration of Magnetic Resonance Imaging Scans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burdett, J.; Stevens, J.; Flugel, D.; Williams, E.; Duncan, J.S.; Lemieux, L.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: To compare automatic software-based co-registration of serial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans with conventional visual comparison, by expert neuroradiologists.Material and Methods: Sixty-four patients who were referred to our epilepsy MRI unit for cerebral imaging were identified as having potentially, non- or slow-growing lesions or cerebral atrophy and followed with sequential scans over a period of up to 8 years, resulting in a total of 92 pairs of scans. Scans were categorized as showing either lesions or atrophy. Each pair of scans was reviewed twice for the presence of change, with and without co-registration, performed using automated software. Results: Co-registration and visual reporting without co-registration were discordant in the lesions group in nine out of 69 datasets (13%), and in 16 out of 23 pairs of scans in the atrophy group (69%). The most common cause of discordance was visual reporting not detecting changes apparent by co-registration. In three cases, changes detected visually were not detected following co-registration. Conclusion: In the group of patients studied, co-registration was more sensitive for detecting changes than visual comparison, particularly with respect to atrophic changes of the brain. With the increasing availability of sophisticated independent consoles attached to MRI scanners that may be used for image co-registration, we propose that serial T1-weighted volumetric MRI brain co-registration should be considered for integration into routine clinical practice to assess patients with suspected progressive disease

  6. Sensitivity of the hydrologic cycle in Tana river basin to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mutua, F.M.

    1998-01-01

    The Tana River basin in Kenya has four distinct climates along it's gradient from cool humid in mount Kenya region through arid and semi arid in the lower plains to semi humid coastal climate. From the highlands of mount Kenya to the plateau on the lowlands, the river traverses some sections which have high potential for hydro-electric power generation. The government has constructed water reovirus to collect water for electricity generation. The influence of the reovirus have also caused climate modification. The aim of the study was to investigate the sensitivity of the river flows in the Tana river to climate change. The study indicates that, as long as temperature increment of up to 2 degrees centigrade are accompanied by positive changes (greater than 10%) in rainfall over the basin, then the hydrologic cycle adjust itself accordingly to give a positive response (increased runoff) in terms of the river at the outlet

  7. Effects of fluoxetine on changes of pain sensitivity in chronic stress model rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lian, Yan-Na; Chang, Jin-Long; Lu, Qi; Wang, Yi; Zhang, Ying; Zhang, Feng-Min

    2017-06-09

    Exposure to stress could facilitate or inhibit pain responses (stress-induced hyperalgesia or hypoalgesia, respectively). Fluoxetine is a selective serotonin (5-HT) reuptake inhibitor antidepressant. There have been contradictory reports on whether fluoxetine produces antinociceptive effects. The purpose of this study was to elucidate changes in pain sensitivity after chronic stress exposure, and the effects of fluoxetine on these changes. We measured thermal, mechanical, and formalin-induced acute and inflammatory pain by using the tail-flick, von Frey, and formalin tests respectively. The results showed that rats exposed to chronic stress exhibited thermal and formalin-induced acute and inflammatory hypoalgesia and transient mechanical hyperalgesia. Furthermore, fluoxetine promoted hypoalgesia in thermal and inflammatory pain and induced mechanical hyperalgesia. Our results indicate that the 5-HT system could be involved in hypoalgesia of thermal and inflammatory pain and induce transient mechanical hyperalgesia after stress exposure. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Runoff and Evapotranspiration Sensitivities to a Changing Climate in the Western U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, M.; Xiao, M.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change is likely to alter streamflow seasonal patterns, affect water availability, and otherwise pose challenges to water resources management. It is therefore important to understand how streamflow will respond to changes in climate. Previous studies have mostly focused on runoff sensitivity to precipitation (P) and temperature change, but runoff sensitivity to potential evapotranspiration (PET) is less well understood. In order to investigate how variations in precipitation and PET influence runoff, we conducted both statistical and model-based analyses of 84 near-natural basins in California, Oregon, and Washington. We obtained meteorological forcing data at 1/16 degree spatial resolution for each basin from the University of Washington/UCLA Experimental Surface Water Monitor, and observed runoff data from USGS. For the statistical method, we applied three estimators of the precipitation elasticity of runoff from previous studies. We also estimated the PET elasticity of runoff, using Penman-Monteith reference ET as a surrogate for PET. For the modelling method, we implemented the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) Model, where PET is an explicit input. We performed experiments in which we changed P and PET by 1% individually to examine their effects on runoff, from which we computed the P and PET elasticities. We explore the spatial patterns in the elasticities of runoff and their relationships with basin characteristics and climatology. We also evaluate how well the statistical and model-based results meet the complementary relationship posited by Dooge (based on the Budyko Hypothesis) that the precipitation and PET elasticities of annual runoff should sum to one.

  9. Sensitivity of intensity modulated proton therapy plans to changes in patient weight

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albertini, Francesca; Bolsi, Alessandra; Lomax, Antony J.; Rutz, Hans Peter; Timmerman, Beate; Goitein, Gudrun

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: A retrospective study to investigate the sensitivity of intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT) to changes in body weight occurring during the course of radiotherapy for patients treated in the sacral region. Materials and methods: During therapy, important weight gain and loss were observed for two patients treated to para-spinal tumors, which resulted in both patients being re-scanned and re-planned. Both patients were treated as part of their therapy, with a narrow-angle IMPT (NA-IMPT) plan delivering a 'dose hole' around the cauda equina (CE), which was mainly formed through modulation of Bragg peaks in depth. To investigate the impact of these weight changes on the proton range and delivered dose, the nominal fields were re-calculated on the new CT data sets. Results were analyzed by comparing these new plans with those originally delivered and by calculating changes in range and delivered doses in target volumes and normal tissues. Results: Maximum differences in proton range in the CE region of up to +8 mm and -13 mm, respectively, for the patient who gained weight and for the patient who lost weight, increased the maximum dose to the CE by only 2%. This indicates that both IMPT plans were relatively insensitive to substantial range uncertainties. Even greater differences in range (16 mm) in the planning target volume only slightly affected its dose homogeneity (differences in V 90% of 6% in the worst case). Nevertheless, some large undesired local dose differences were observed. Conclusions: We demonstrated, that, at least for the two analyzed cases, NA-IMPT plans are less sensitive to weight variations than one may expect. Still, we would advise to calculate new plans in case of substantial change in weight for patients treated in the sacral region, primarily due to the presence of new hot/cold area

  10. The influence of cirrus cloud-radiative forcing on climate and climate sensitivity in a general circulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lohmann, U.; Roeckner, E.

    1994-01-01

    Six numerical experiments have been performed with a general circulation model (GCM) to study the influence of high-level cirrus clouds and global sea surface temperature (SST) perturbations on climate and climate sensitivity. The GCM used in this investigation is the third-generation ECHAM3 model developed jointly by the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology and the University of Hamburg. It is shown that the model is able to reproduce many features of the observed cloud-radiative forcing with considerable skill, such as the annual mean distribution, the response to seasonal forcing and the response to observed SST variations in the equatorial Pacific. In addition to a reference experiment where the cirrus emissivity is computed as a function of the cloud water content, two sensitivity experiments have been performed in which the cirrus emissivity is either set to zero everywhere above 400 hPa ('transparent cirrus') or set to one ('black cirrus'). These three experiments are repeated identically, except for prescribing a globally uniform SST warming of 4 K. (orig.)

  11. Characteristics of a Sensitive Well Showing Pre-Earthquake Water-Level Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Chi-Yu

    2018-04-01

    Water-level data recorded at a sensitive well next to a fault in central Japan between 1989 and 1998 showed many coseismic water-level drops and a large (60 cm) and long (6-month) pre-earthquake drop before a rare local earthquake of magnitude 5.8 on 17 March 1997, as well as 5 smaller pre-earthquake drops during a 7-year period prior to this earthquake. The pre-earthquake changes were previously attributed to leakage through the fault-gouge zone caused by small but broad-scaled crustal-stress increments. These increments now seem to be induced by some large slow-slip events. The coseismic changes are attributed to seismic shaking-induced fissures in the adjacent aquitards, in addition to leakage through the fault. The well's high-sensitivity is attributed to its tapping a highly permeable aquifer, which is connected to the fractured side of the fault, and its near-critical condition for leakage, especially during the 7 years before the magnitude 5.8 earthquake.

  12. Using Impact-Relevant Sensitivities to Efficiently Evaluate and Select Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vano, J. A.; Kim, J. B.; Rupp, D. E.; Mote, P.

    2014-12-01

    We outline an efficient approach to help researchers and natural resource managers more effectively use global climate model information in their long-term planning. The approach provides an estimate of the magnitude of change of a particular impact (e.g., summertime streamflow) from a large ensemble of climate change projections prior to detailed analysis. These estimates provide both qualitative information as an end unto itself (e.g., the distribution of future changes between emissions scenarios for the specific impact) and a judicious, defensible evaluation structure that can be used to qualitatively select a sub-set of climate models for further analysis. More specifically, the evaluation identifies global climate model scenarios that both (1) span the range of possible futures for the variable/s most important to the impact under investigation, and (2) come from global climate models that adequately simulate historical climate, providing plausible results for the future climate in the region of interest. To identify how an ecosystem process responds to projected future changes, we methodically sample, using a simple sensitivity analysis, how an impact variable (e.g., streamflow magnitude, vegetation carbon) responds locally to projected regional temperature and precipitation changes. We demonstrate our technique over the Pacific Northwest, focusing on two types of impacts each in three distinct geographic settings: (a) changes in streamflow magnitudes in critical seasons for water management in the Willamette, Yakima, and Upper Columbia River basins; and (b) changes in annual vegetation carbon in the Oregon and Washington Coast Ranges, Western Cascades, and Columbia Basin ecoregions.

  13. The Future of General Surgery: Evolving to Meet a Changing Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webber, Eric M; Ronson, Ashley R; Gorman, Lisa J; Taber, Sarah A; Harris, Kenneth A

    2016-01-01

    Similar to other countries, the practice of General Surgery in Canada has undergone significant evolution over the past 30 years without major changes to the training model. There is growing concern that current General Surgery residency training does not provide the skills required to practice the breadth of General Surgery in all Canadian communities and practice settings. Led by a national Task Force on the Future of General Surgery, this project aimed to develop recommendations on the optimal configuration of General Surgery training in Canada. A series of 4 evidence-based sub-studies and a national survey were launched to inform these recommendations. Generalized findings from the multiple methods of the project speak to the complexity of the current practice of General Surgery: (1) General surgeons have very different practice patterns depending on the location of practice; (2) General Surgery training offers strong preparation for overall clinical competence; (3) Subspecialized training is a new reality for today's general surgeons; and (4) Generation of the report and recommendations for the future of General Surgery. A total of 4 key recommendations were developed to optimize General Surgery for the 21st century. This project demonstrated that a high variability of practice dependent on location contrasts with the principles of implementing the same objectives of training for all General Surgery graduates. The overall results of the project have prompted the Royal College to review the training requirements and consider a more "fit for purpose" training scheme, thus ensuring that General Surgery residency training programs would optimally prepare residents for a broad range of practice settings and locations across Canada. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Sensitivity of a two-dimensional chemistry-transport model to changes in parameterizations of radiative processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grant, K.E.; Ellingson, R.G.; Wuebbles, D.J.

    1988-08-01

    Radiative processes strongly effect equilibrium trace gas concentrations both directly, through photolysis reactions, and indirectly through temperature and transport processes. As part of our continuing radiative submodel development and validation, we have used the LLNL 2-D chemical-radiative-transport (CRT) model to investigate the net sensitivity of equilibrium ozone concentrations to several changes in radiative forcing. Doubling CO 2 from 300 ppmv to 600 ppmv resulted in a temperature decrease of 5 K to 8 K in the middle stratosphere along with an 8% to 16% increase in ozone in the same region. Replacing our usual shortwave scattering algorithms with a simplified Rayleigh algorithm led to a 1% to 2% increase in ozone in the lower stratosphere. Finally, modifying our normal CO 2 cooling rates by corrections derived from line-by-line calculations resulted in several regions of heating and cooling. We observed temperature changes on the order of 1 K to 1.5 K with corresponding changes of 0.5% to 1.5% in O 3 . Our results for doubled CO 2 compare favorably with those by other authors. Results for our two perturbation scenarios stress the need for accurately modeling radiative processes while confirming the general validity of current 2-D CRT models. 15 refs., 5 figs

  15. Evaluating the sensitivity of Eurasian forest biomass to climate change using a dynamic vegetation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shuman, J K; Shugart, H H

    2009-01-01

    Climate warming could strongly influence the structure and composition of the Eurasian boreal forest. Temperature related changes have occurred, including shifts in treelines and changes in regeneration. Dynamic vegetation models are well suited to the further exploration of the impacts that climate change may have on boreal forests. Using the individual-based gap model FAREAST, forest composition and biomass are simulated at over 2000 sites across Eurasia. Biomass output is compared to detailed forest data from a representative sample of Russian forests and a sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the impact that elevated temperatures and modified precipitation will have on forest biomass and composition in Eurasia. Correlations between model and forest inventory biomass are strong for several boreal tree species. A significant relationship is shown between altered precipitation and biomass. This analysis showed that a modest increase in temperature of 2 deg. C across 200 years had no significant effect on biomass; however further exploration with increased warming reflective of values measured within Siberia, or at an increased rate, are warranted. Overall, FAREAST accurately simulates forest biomass and composition at sites throughout a large geographic area with widely varying climatic conditions and produces reasonable biomass responses to simulated climatic shifts. These results indicate that this model is robust and useful in making predictions regarding the effect of future climate change on boreal forest structure across Eurasia.

  16. Sensitivity of GRACE-derived estimates of groundwater-level changes in southern Ontario, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hachborn, Ellen; Berg, Aaron; Levison, Jana; Ambadan, Jaison Thomas

    2017-12-01

    Amidst changing climates, understanding the world's water resources is of increasing importance. In Ontario, Canada, low water conditions are currently assessed using only precipitation and watershed-based stream gauges by the Conservation Authorities in Ontario and the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry. Regional groundwater-storage changes in Ontario are not currently measured using satellite data by research institutes. In this study, contributions from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data are compared to a hydrogeological database covering southern Ontario from 2003 to 2013, to determine the suitability of GRACE total water storage estimates for monitoring groundwater storage in this location. Terrestrial water storage data from GRACE were used to determine monthly groundwater storage (GWS) anomaly values. GWS values were also determined by multiplying groundwater-level elevations (from the Provincial Groundwater Monitoring Network wells) by specific yield. Comparisons of GRACE-derived GWS to well-based GWS data determined that GRACE is sufficiently sensitive to obtain a meaningful signal in southern Ontario. Results show that GWS values produced by GRACE are useful for identifying regional changes in groundwater storage in areas with limited available hydrogeological characterization data. Results also indicate that GRACE may have an ability to forecast changes in groundwater storage, which will become useful when monitoring climate shifts in the near future.

  17. Water limited agriculture in Africa: Climate change sensitivity of large scale land investments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rulli, M. C.; D'Odorico, P.; Chiarelli, D. D.; Davis, K. F.

    2015-12-01

    The past few decades have seen unprecedented changes in the global agricultural system with a dramatic increase in the rates of food production fueled by an escalating demand for food calories, as a result of demographic growth, dietary changes, and - more recently - new bioenergy policies. Food prices have become consistently higher and increasingly volatile with dramatic spikes in 2007-08 and 2010-11. The confluence of these factors has heightened demand for land and brought a wave of land investment to the developing world: some of the more affluent countries are trying to secure land rights in areas suitable for agriculture. According to some estimates, to date, roughly 38 million hectares have been acquired worldwide by large scale investors, 16 million of which in Africa. More than 85% of large scale land acquisitions in Africa are by foreign investors. Many land deals are motivated not only by the need for fertile land but for the water resources required for crop production. Despite some recent assessments of the water appropriation associated with large scale land investments, their impact on the water resources of the target countries under present conditions and climate change scenarios remains poorly understood. Here we investigate irrigation water requirements by various crops planted in the acquired land as an indicator of the pressure likely placed by land investors on ("blue") water resources of target regions in Africa and evaluate the sensitivity to climate changes scenarios.

  18. Circulation and oxygen cycling in the Mediterranean Sea: Sensitivity to future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powley, Helen R.; Krom, Michael D.; Van Cappellen, Philippe

    2016-11-01

    Climate change is expected to increase temperatures and decrease precipitation in the Mediterranean Sea (MS) basin, causing substantial changes in the thermohaline circulation (THC) of both the Western Mediterranean Sea (WMS) and Eastern Mediterranean Sea (EMS). The exact nature of future circulation changes remains highly uncertain, however, with forecasts varying from a weakening to a strengthening of the THC. Here we assess the sensitivity of dissolved oxygen (O2) distributions in the WMS and EMS to THC changes using a mass balance model, which represents the exchanges of O2 between surface, intermediate, and deep water reservoirs, and through the Straits of Sicily and Gibraltar. Perturbations spanning the ranges in O2 solubility, aerobic respiration kinetics, and THC changes projected for the year 2100 are imposed to the O2 model. In all scenarios tested, the entire MS remains fully oxygenated after 100 years; depending on the THC regime, average deep water O2 concentrations fall in the ranges 151-205 and 160-219 µM in the WMS and EMS, respectively. On longer timescales (>1000 years), the scenario with the largest (>74%) decline in deep water formation rate leads to deep water hypoxia in the EMS but, even then, the WMS deep water remains oxygenated. In addition, a weakening of THC may result in a negative feedback on O2 consumption as supply of labile dissolved organic carbon to deep water decreases. Thus, it appears unlikely that climate-driven changes in THC will cause severe O2 depletion of the deep water masses of the MS in the foreseeable future.

  19. Test Your Memory is sensitive to cognitive change but lacks prospective validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrero-Arias, J; Turrión-Rojo, M Á

    2016-03-01

    To determine the prospective validity of Test Your Memory (TYM) and its sensitivity to change in cognitive state. This longitudinal prospective study followed 71 patients with subjective cognitive symptoms and 48 with mild cognitive impairment for a mean time period of 35.2 ± 15 months. Subjects did not have dementia or depression at the beginning of follow-up and each participant was given the TYM at least two times. A psychometric threshold was established to determine presence of a cognitive deficit (z-score ≤ 1.5 on at least one cognitive domain) and the Disability Assessment for Dementia scale was used to ensure full functional ability. The criterion for deterioration was a change in the stage on the Global Deterioration Scale. Sixty-one patients remained cognitively stable and 58 worsened. There were no differences between them with respect to sex, educational attainment, the initial stage on the GDS, or the score on the first TYM. Subjects who worsened were older than those who did not. The TYM increased an average of 0.04 points per month in patients who remained stable or improved (95% CI, -0.01 to 0.08) and decreased an average of 0.14 points per month in those whose condition worsened (95% CI, -0.19 to -0.09). Subjects with mild cognitive impairment who worsened displayed a sharper loss of TYM points than did subjects with subjective cognitive symptoms. While the TYM lacks prospective validity, it is sensitive to changes in cognitive state. Copyright © 2015 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  20. Whither British general practice after the 2004 GMS contract? Stories and realities of change in four UK general practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huby, Guro; Guthrie, Bruce; Grant, Suzanne; Watkins, Francis; Checkland, Kath; McDonald, Ruth; Davies, Huw

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to provide answers to two questions: what has been the impact of nGMS on practice organisation and teamwork; and how do general practice staff perceive the impact? The article is based on comparative in-depth case studies of four UK practices. There was a discrepancy between changes observed and the way practice staff described the impact of the contract. Similar patterns of organisational change were apparent in all practices. Decision-making became concentrated in fewer hands. Formally or informally constituted "elite" multidisciplinary groups monitored and controlled colleagues' behaviour for maximum performance and remuneration. This convergence of organisational form was not reflected in the dominant "story" each practice constructed about its unique ethos and style. The "stories" also failed to detect negative consequences to the practice flowing from its adaptation to the contract. The paper highlights how collective "sensemaking" in practices may fail to detect and address key organisational consequences from the nGMS.

  1. Dopamine D1 sensitivity in the prefrontal cortex predicts general cognitive abilities and is modulated by working memory training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wass, Christopher; Pizzo, Alessandro; Sauce, Bruno; Kawasumi, Yushi; Sturzoiu, Tudor; Ree, Fred; Otto, Tim; Matzel, Louis D

    2013-10-15

    A common source of variance (i.e., "general intelligence") underlies an individual's performance across diverse tests of cognitive ability, and evidence indicates that the processing efficacy of working memory may serve as one such source of common variance. One component of working memory, selective attention, has been reported to co-vary with general intelligence, and dopamine D1 signaling in prefrontal cortex can modulate attentional abilities. Based on their aggregate performance across five diverse tests of learning, here we characterized the general cognitive ability (GCA) of CD-1 outbred mice. In response to a D1 agonist (SKF82958, 1 mg/kg), we then assessed the relationship between GCA and activation of D1 receptor (D1R)-containing neurons in the prelimbic region of the medial prefrontal cortex, the agranular insular cortex, and the dorsomedial striatum. Increased activation of D1R-containing neurons in the prelimbic cortex (but not the agranular insular cortex or dorsomedial striatum) was observed in animals of high GCA relative to those of low GCA (quantified by c-Fos activation in response to the D1 agonist). However, a Western blot analysis revealed no differences in the density of D1Rs in the prelimbic cortex between animals of high and low GCA. Last, it was observed that working memory training promoted an increase in animals' GCA and enhanced D1R-mediated neuronal activation in the prelimbic cortex. These results suggest that the sensitivity (but not density) of D1Rs in the prelimbic cortex may both regulate GCA and be a target for working memory training.

  2. Risk perceptions, general environmental beliefs, and willingness to address climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Connor, R.E.; Bord, R.J.; Fisher, A.

    1999-01-01

    The research reported here examines the relationship between risk perceptions and willingness to address climate change. The data are a national sample of 1,225 mail surveys that include measures of risk perceptions and knowledge tied to climate change, support for voluntary and government actions to address the problem, general environmental beliefs, and demographic variables. Risk perceptions matter in predicting behavior intentions. Risk perceptions are not a surrogate for general environmental beliefs, but have their own power to account for behavioral intentions. There are four secondary conclusions. First, behavioral intentions regarding climate change are complex and intriguing. People are neither nonbelievers who will take no initiatives themselves and oppose all government efforts, nor are they believers who promise both to make personal efforts and to vote for every government proposal that promises to address climate change. Second, there are separate demographic sources for voluntary actions compared with voting intentions. Third, recognizing the causes of global warming is a powerful predictor of behavioral intentions independent from believing that climate change will happen and have bad consequences. Finally, the success of the risk perception variables to account for behavioral intentions should encourage greater attention to risk perceptions as independent variables. Risk perceptions and knowledge, however, share the stage with general environmental beliefs and demographic characteristics. Although related, risk perceptions, knowledge, and general environmental beliefs are somewhat independent predictors of behavioral intentions

  3. Water sensitive design as a means of adaptation for climate change and urbanisation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Semadeni-Davies, Annette

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: This presentation uses urban drainage to show how climate change impact assessments should also consider changes in resource management, land-use and technology. Although the work was carried out in Sweden (Semadeni-Davies 2004; 2007 a, b), the findings are relevant for Australia and New Zealand as these countries are currently moving away from pipe stormwater networks towards open water systems. Urban areas are characterised by high peak flows and fast response times. A central issue here is that there has been a paradigm shift in urban water management, particularly in new developments where the stormwater system is fast becoming a landscape feature. The shift is part of a worldwide trend called water sensitive design (WSD) or low impact design (LID). Ponds, wetlands, infiltration trenches, and porous paving are common examples of WSD elements intended to reduce peak stormwater and contaminant transport while maintaining low flows. Even in city centres where land values are at a premium, there has been an interest in retro-fitting for WSD. It is important for those interested in the impacts of climate change on urban areas to know this background information, as WSD may offer a means of adapting to climate change. However, there is a major stumbling block - the output from regional climate models is currently not at a sufficient spatial or temporal resolution to assess theimpact on urban drainage as the processes operate on a scale of minutes and metres (Shilling 1991). The disparity in resolution is also problematic for the design of future-proofed urban water systems as this requires information on rainfall intensity and frequency. To illustrate the effect of WSD, the potential impacts of climate change and urbanisation on flow were assessed both separately and together using DHI software (MIKE SHE, MOUSE) for Helsingborg in two related studies for combined and separate sewers. The Swedish regional climate model developed at the Rossby

  4. Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, A. David; Anderson, Leif G.; Christensen, Torben R.; Dallimore, Scott; Guo, Laodong; Hayes, Daniel J.; Heimann, Martin; Lorenson, T.D.; Macdonald, Robie W.; Roulet, Nigel

    2009-01-01

    The recent warming in the Arctic is affecting a broad spectrum of physical, ecological, and human/cultural systems that may be irreversible on century time scales and have the potential to cause rapid changes in the earth system. The response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to changes in climate is a major issue of global concern, yet there has not been a comprehensive review of the status of the contemporary carbon cycle of the Arctic and its response to climate change. This review is designed to clarify key uncertainties and vulnerabilities in the response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to ongoing climatic change. While it is clear that there are substantial stocks of carbon in the Arctic, there are also significant uncertainties associated with the magnitude of organic matter stocks contained in permafrost and the storage of methane hydrates beneath both subterranean and submerged permafrost of the Arctic. In the context of the global carbon cycle, this review demonstrates that the Arctic plays an important role in the global dynamics of both CO2 and CH4. Studies suggest that the Arctic has been a sink for atmospheric CO2 of between 0 and 0.8 Pg C/yr in recent decades, which is between 0% and 25% of the global net land/ocean flux during the 1990s. The Arctic is a substantial source of CH4 to the atmosphere (between 32 and 112 Tg CH4/yr), primarily because of the large area of wetlands throughout the region. Analyses to date indicate that the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic during the remainder of the 21st century is highly uncertain. To improve the capability to assess the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to projected climate change, we recommend that (1) integrated regional studies be conducted to link observations of carbon dynamics to the processes that are likely to influence those dynamics, and (2) the understanding gained from these integrated studies be incorporated into both uncoupled and fully coupled carbon

  5. Optically stimulated luminescence sensitivity changes in quartz due to repeated use in single aliquot readout: experiments and computer simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKeever, S.W.S.; Oklahoma State Univ., Stillwater, OK; Boetter-Jensen, L.; Agersnap Larsen, N.; Mejdahl, V.; Poolton, N.R.J.

    1996-01-01

    As part of a study to examine sensitivity changes in single aliquot techniques using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) a series of experiments has been conducted with single aliquots of natural quartz, and the data compared with the results of computer simulations of the type of processes believed to be occurring. The computer model used includes both shallow and deep ('hard-to-bleach') traps, OSL ('easy-to-bleach') traps, and radiative and non-radiative recombination centres. The model has previously been used successfully to account for sensitivity changes in quartz due to thermal annealing. The simulations are able to reproduce qualitatively the main features of the experimental results including sensitivity changes as a function of re-use, and their dependence upon bleaching time and laboratory dose. The sensitivity changes are believed to be the result of a combination of shallow trap and deep trap effects. (author)

  6. Optically stimulated luminescence sensitivity changes in quartz due to repeated use in single aliquot readout: Experiments and computer simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McKeever, S.W.S.; Bøtter-Jensen, L.; Agersnap Larsen, N.

    1996-01-01

    believed to be occurring. The computer model used includes both shallow and deep ('hard-to-bleach') traps, OSL ('easy-to-bleach') traps, and radiative and non-radiative recombination centres. The model has previously been used successfully to account for sensitivity changes in quartz due to thermal......As part of a study to examine sensitivity changes in single aliquot techniques using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) a series of experiments has been conducted with single aliquots of natural quartz, and the data compared with the results of computer simulations of the type of processes...... annealing. The simulations are able to reproduce qualitatively the main features of the experimental results including sensitivity changes as a function of reuse, and their dependence upon bleaching time and laboratory dose. The sensitivity changes are believed to be the result of a combination of shallow...

  7. Impacts of climate change for Swiss winter and summer tourism: a general equilibrium analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Thurm, Boris; Vielle, Marc; Vöhringer, Frank

    2017-01-01

    Tourism could be greatly affected by climate change due to its strong dependence on weather. In Switzerland, the sector represents an appreciable share of the economy. Thus, studying climate effects on tourism is necessary for developing adequate adaptation strategies. While most of the studies focused on winter tourism, we investigate the climate change impacts on both winter and summer tourism in Switzerland. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we simulate the impacts of tem...

  8. Rethinking workforce boundaries: roles, responsibilities and skill mix and readiness for change in general practice

    OpenAIRE

    Topping, Annie; Nkosana Nyawata, Idah; Stephenson, John; Featherstone, Valerie A.

    2012-01-01

    Title: Rethinking workforce boundaries: roles, responsibilities and skill mix and readiness for change in general practice \\ud The Problem \\ud The last 10 years has seen major changes in the way services are delivered in primary care. Skill mix, has offered many practices real opportunities for doing things differently. As the introduction of advanced nurse practitioners (ANPs) and health care assistants (HCAs) into the primary care workforce demonstrate. While workforce redesign has its crit...

  9. Gravitropism in higher plant shoots. VI. Changing sensitivity to auxin in gravistimulated soybean hypocotyls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rorabaugh, P. A.; Salisbury, F. B.

    1989-01-01

    Although the Cholodny-Went model of auxin redistribution has been used to explain the transduction phase of gravitropism for over 60 years, problems are apparent, especially with dicot stems. An alternative to an auxin gradient is a physiological gradient in which lower tissues of a horizontal stem become more sensitive than upper tissues to auxin already present. Changes in tissue sensitivity to auxin were tested by immersing marked Glycine max Merrill (soybean) hypocotyl sections in buffered auxin solutions (0, 10(-8) to 10(-2) molar indoleacetic acid) and observing bending and growth of upper and lower surfaces. The two surfaces of horizontal hypocotyl sections responded differently to the same applied auxin stimulus; hypocotyls bent up (lower half grew more) in buffer alone or in low auxin levels, but bent down (upper half grew more) in high auxin. Dose-response curves were evaluated with Michaelis-Menten kinetics, with auxin-receptor binding analogous to enzyme-substrate binding. Vmax for the lower half was usually greater than that for the upper half, which could indicate more binding sites in the lower half. Km of the upper half was always greater than that of the lower half (unmeasurably low), which could indicate that upper-half binding sites had a much lower affinity for auxin than lower-half sites. Dose-response curves were also obtained for sections scrubbed' (cuticle abraded) on top or bottom before immersion in auxin, and gravitropic memory' experiments of L. Brauner and A. Hagar (1958 Planta 51: 115-147) were duplicated. [1-14C]Indoleacetic acid penetration was equal into the two halves, and endogenous plus exogenously supplied (not radiolabeled) free auxin in the two halves (by gas chromatography-selected ion monitoring-mass spectrometry) was also equal. Thus, differential growth occurred without free auxin redistribution, contrary to Cholodny-Went but in agreement with a sensitivity model.

  10. Changes in visual sensitivity of the rabbit after a bleaching flash

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Courant, Daniel

    1981-01-01

    Electrical responses were simultaneously recorded at the photoreceptor level (a-wave of the ERG), at the pre-ganglionic retinal level (b-wave of the ERG) and at the post-retinal level (P1-wave of the superior colliculus and cortical VER). The relations of the different parameters of evoked responses with flash intensity were established. The changes and the recovery of this transfer function after the bleaching flash point out to the following conclusions: - Fast adaptation due to the ionic permeability change of the cellular membrane, resulting from the action of an internal transmitter, is different both with rods and cones. - In photopic adaptation, the a-wave slope temporarily exceeds the control value whereas the other parameters display a monotonous recovery. This suggests that, at the cone level, one product of degradation of the internal transmitter is a precursor of its formation. - The changes in amplitude-intensity relation are different between a- and b-waves, inducing a second mechanism of fast adaptation at a distal level of the retina. - There exists no supplementary adaptation at the ganglionic cells level since no difference is seen between the sensitivity curves obtained at the cortical and the ganglionic levels. (author) [fr

  11. SuBSENSE: a universal change detection method with local adaptive sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    St-Charles, Pierre-Luc; Bilodeau, Guillaume-Alexandre; Bergevin, Robert

    2015-01-01

    Foreground/background segmentation via change detection in video sequences is often used as a stepping stone in high-level analytics and applications. Despite the wide variety of methods that have been proposed for this problem, none has been able to fully address the complex nature of dynamic scenes in real surveillance tasks. In this paper, we present a universal pixel-level segmentation method that relies on spatiotemporal binary features as well as color information to detect changes. This allows camouflaged foreground objects to be detected more easily while most illumination variations are ignored. Besides, instead of using manually set, frame-wide constants to dictate model sensitivity and adaptation speed, we use pixel-level feedback loops to dynamically adjust our method's internal parameters without user intervention. These adjustments are based on the continuous monitoring of model fidelity and local segmentation noise levels. This new approach enables us to outperform all 32 previously tested state-of-the-art methods on the 2012 and 2014 versions of the ChangeDetection.net dataset in terms of overall F-Measure. The use of local binary image descriptors for pixel-level modeling also facilitates high-speed parallel implementations: our own version, which used no low-level or architecture-specific instruction, reached real-time processing speed on a midlevel desktop CPU. A complete C++ implementation based on OpenCV is available online.

  12. Weak Hydrological Sensitivity to Temperature Change over Land, Independent of Climate Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samset, B. H.; Myhre, G.; Forster, P. M.; Hodnebrog, O.; Andrews, T.; Boucher, O.; Faluvegi, G.; Flaeschner, D.; Kasoar, M.; Kharin, V.; hide

    2018-01-01

    We present the global and regional hydrological sensitivity (HS) to surface temperature changes, for perturbations to CO2, CH4, sulfate and black carbon concentrations, and solar irradiance. Based on results from ten climate models, we show how modeled global mean precipitation increases by 2-3% per kelvin of global mean surface warming, independent of driver, when the effects of rapid adjustments are removed. Previously reported differences in response between drivers are therefore mainly ascribable to rapid atmospheric adjustment processes. All models show a sharp contrast in behavior over land and over ocean, with a strong surface temperature-driven (slow) ocean HS of 3-5%/K, while the slow land HS is only 0-2%/K. Separating the response into convective and large-scale cloud processes, we find larger inter-model differences, in particular over land regions. Large-scale precipitation changes are most relevant at high latitudes, while the equatorial HS is dominated by convective precipitation changes. Black carbon stands out as the driver with the largest inter-model slow HS variability, and also the strongest contrast between a weak land and strong sea response. We identify a particular need for model investigations and observational constraints on convective precipitation in the Arctic, and large-scale precipitation around the Equator.

  13. Modeled sensitivity of Lake Michigan productivity and zooplankton to changing nutrient concentrations and quagga mussels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilcher, Darren J.; McKinley, Galen A.; Kralj, James; Bootsma, Harvey A.; Reavie, Euan D.

    2017-08-01

    The recent decline in Lake Michigan productivity is often attributed to filter feeding by invasive quagga mussels, but some studies also implicate reductions in lakewide nutrient concentrations. We use a 3-D coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model to evaluate the effect of changing nutrient concentrations and quagga mussel filtering on phytoplankton production and phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Sensitivity experiments are used to assess the net effect of each change separately and in unison. Quagga mussels are found to have the greatest impact during periods of isothermal mixing, while nutrients have the greatest impact during thermal stratification. Quagga mussels also act to enhance spatial heterogeneity, particularly between nearshore-offshore regions. This effect produces a reversal in the gradient of nearshore-offshore productivity: from relatively greater nearshore productivity in the prequagga lake to relatively lesser nearshore productivity after quaggas. The combined impact of both processes drives substantial reductions in phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass, as well as significant modifications to the seasonality of surface water pCO2, particularly in nearshore regions where mussel grazing continues year-round. These results support growing concern that considerable losses of phytoplankton and zooplankton will yield concurrent losses at higher trophic levels. Comparisons to observed productivity suggest that both quagga mussel filtration and lower lakewide total phosphorus are necessary to accurately simulate recent changes in primary productivity in Lake Michigan.

  14. Sensitivity of the global submarine hydrate inventory to scenarios of future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, S. J.; Goldobin, D. S.; Haywood, A. M.; Ridgwell, A.; Rees, J. G.

    2013-04-01

    The global submarine inventory of methane hydrate is thought to be considerable. The stability of marine hydrates is sensitive to changes in temperature and pressure and once destabilised, hydrates release methane into sediments and ocean and potentially into the atmosphere, creating a positive feedback with climate change. Here we present results from a multi-model study investigating how the methane hydrate inventory dynamically responds to different scenarios of future climate and sea level change. The results indicate that a warming-induced reduction is dominant even when assuming rather extreme rates of sea level rise (up to 20 mm yr-1) under moderate warming scenarios (RCP 4.5). Over the next century modelled hydrate dissociation is focussed in the top ˜100m of Arctic and Subarctic sediments beneath business-as-usual scenario (RCP 8.5), upper estimates of resulting global sea-floor methane fluxes could exceed estimates of natural global fluxes by 2100 (>30-50TgCH4yr-1), although subsequent oxidation in the water column could reduce peak atmospheric release rates to 0.75-1.4 Tg CH4 yr-1.

  15. Changes in gene expression and sensitivity of cocaine reward produced by a continuous fat diet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanco-Gandía, M Carmen; Aracil-Fernández, Auxiliadora; Montagud-Romero, Sandra; Aguilar, Maria A; Manzanares, Jorge; Miñarro, José; Rodríguez-Arias, Marta

    2017-08-01

    Preclinical studies report that free access to a high-fat diet (HFD) alters the response to psychostimulants. The aim of the present study was to examine how HFD exposure during adolescence modifies cocaine effects. Gene expression of CB1 and mu-opioid receptors (MOr) in the nucleus accumbens (N Acc) and prefrontal cortex (PFC) and ghrelin receptor (GHSR) in the ventral tegmental area (VTA) were assessed. Mice were allowed continuous access to fat from PND 29, and the locomotor (10 mg/kg) and reinforcing effects of cocaine (1 and 6 mg/kg) on conditioned place preference (CPP) were evaluated on PND 69. Another group of mice was exposed to a standard diet until the day of post-conditioning, on which free access to the HFD began. HFD induced an increase of MOr gene expression in the N Acc, but decreased CB1 receptor in the N Acc and PFC. After fat withdrawal, the reduction of CB1 receptor in the N Acc was maintained. Gene expression of GHSR in the VTA decreased during the HFD and increased after withdrawal. Following fat discontinuation, mice exhibited increased anxiety, augmented locomotor response to cocaine, and developed CPP for 1 mg/kg cocaine. HFD reduced the number of sessions required to extinguish the preference and decreased sensitivity to drug priming-induced reinstatement. Our results suggest that consumption of a HFD during adolescence induces neurobiochemical changes that increased sensitivity to cocaine when fat is withdrawn, acting as an alternative reward.

  16. Dysphoric mood states are related to sensitivity to temporal changes in contingency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel M. eMsetfi

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available A controversial finding in the field of causal learning is that mood contributes to the accuracy of perceptions of uncorrelated relationships. When asked to report the degree of control between an action and its outcome, people with dysphoria or depression are claimed to be more realistic in reporting non-contingency (e.g., Alloy & Abramson, 1979. The strongest evidence for this depressive realism (DR effect is derived from data collected with experimental procedures in which the dependent variables are verbal or written ratings of contingency or cause, and, perhaps more importantly, the independent variable in these procedures may be ambiguous and difficult to define. In order to address these possible confounds, we used a two-response free-operant causal learning task in which the dependent measures were performance based. Participants were required to respond to maximise the occurrence of a temporally contiguous outcome that was programmed with different probabilities, which also varied temporally across two responses. Dysphoric participants were more sensitive to the changing outcome contingencies than controls even though they responded at a similar rate. During probe trials, in which the outcome was masked, their performance recovered more quickly than that of the control group. These data provide unexpected support for the depressive realism hypothesis suggesting that dysphoria is associated with heightened sensitivity to temporal shifts in contingency.

  17. Dysphoric Mood States are Related to Sensitivity to Temporal Changes in Contingency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Msetfi, Rachel M; Murphy, Robin A; Kornbrot, Diana E

    2012-01-01

    A controversial finding in the field of causal learning is that mood contributes to the accuracy of perceptions of uncorrelated relationships. When asked to report the degree of control between an action and its outcome, people with dysphoria or depression are claimed to be more realistic in reporting non-contingency (e.g., Alloy and Abramson, 1979). The strongest evidence for this depressive realism (DR) effect is derived from data collected with experimental procedures in which the dependent variables are verbal or written ratings of contingency or cause, and, perhaps more importantly, the independent variable in these procedures may be ambiguous and difficult to define. In order to address these possible confounds, we used a two-response free-operant causal learning task in which the dependent measures were performance based. Participants were required to respond to maximize the occurrence of a temporally contiguous outcome that was programmed with different probabilities, which also varied temporally across two responses. Dysphoric participants were more sensitive to the changing outcome contingencies than controls even though they responded at a similar rate. During probe trials, in which the outcome was masked, their performance recovered more quickly than that of the control group. These data provide unexpected support for the DR hypothesis suggesting that dysphoria is associated with heightened sensitivity to temporal shifts in contingency.

  18. The clear-sky greenhouse effect sensitivity to a sea surface temperature change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duvel, J. PH.; Breon, F. M.

    1991-01-01

    The clear-sky greenhouse effect response to a sea surface temperature (SST or Ts) change is studied using outgoing clear-sky longwave radiation measurements from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment. Considering geographical distributions for July 1987, the relation between the SST, the greenhouse effect (defined as the outgoing infrared flux trapped by atmospheric gases), and the precipitable water vapor content (W), estimated by the Special Sensor Microwave Imager, is analyzed first. A fairly linear relation between W and the normalized greenhouse effect g, is found. On the contrary, the SST dependence of both W and g exhibits nonlinearities with, especially, a large increase for SST above 25 C. This enhanced sensitivity of g and W can be interpreted in part by a corresponding large increase of atmospheric water vapor content related to the transition from subtropical dry regions to equatorial moist regions. Using two years of data (1985 and 1986), the normalized greenhouse effect sensitivity to the sea surface temperature is computed from the interannual variation of monthly mean values.

  19. Developing a Culturally Sensitive Lifestyle Behavior Change Program for Older Latinas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwingel, Andiara; Linares, Deborah E; Gálvez, Patricia; Adamson, Brynn; Aguayo, Liliana; Bobitt, Julie; Castañeda, Yvette; Sebastião, Emerson; Marquez, David X

    2015-12-01

    Despite the burgeoning U.S. Latino population and their increased risk of chronic disease, little emphasis had been placed on developing culturally sensitive lifestyle interventions in this area. This article examines older Latinas' sociocultural context relative to health with the goal of developing a culturally sensitive health behavior intervention. Photo-elicitation indicated two emerging themes that influenced lifestyle choices: family caregiving and religion. Researchers partnered with a faith-based organization to develop and implement a 6-month lifestyle intervention for Latinas ages 50 and older: Abuelas en Acción (AEA). At completion, interviews were conducted to understand women's experiences and the influence AEA had on their lifestyles and health. Findings suggest that religious content empowered and deeply affected women; however, the intergenerational content presented significant challenges for instruction, retention, and implementation. We discuss findings in relation to the health intervention literature and provide suggestions for future interventions drawing on religion, family, and health behavior change. © The Author(s) 2015.

  20. Sensitivity of acoustic nonlinearity parameter to the microstructural changes in cement-based materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Gun; Kim, Jin-Yeon; Kurtis, Kimberly E.; Jacobs, Laurence J.

    2015-03-01

    This research experimentally investigates the sensitivity of the acoustic nonlinearity parameter to microcracks in cement-based materials. Based on the second harmonic generation (SHG) technique, an experimental setup using non-contact, air-coupled detection is used to receive the consistent Rayleigh surface waves. To induce variations in the extent of microscale cracking in two types of specimens (concrete and mortar), shrinkage reducing admixture (SRA), is used in one set, while a companion specimen is prepared without SRA. A 50 kHz wedge transducer and a 100 kHz air-coupled transducer are implemented for the generation and detection of nonlinear Rayleigh waves. It is shown that the air-coupled detection method provides more repeatable fundamental and second harmonic amplitudes of the propagating Rayleigh waves. The obtained amplitudes are then used to calculate the relative nonlinearity parameter βre, the ratio of the second harmonic amplitude to the square of the fundamental amplitude. The experimental results clearly demonstrate that the nonlinearity parameter (βre) is highly sensitive to the microstructural changes in cement-based materials than the Rayleigh phase velocity and attenuation and that SRA has great potential to avoid shrinkage cracking in cement-based materials.

  1. Change in activity of serine palmitoyltransferase affects sensitivity to syringomycin E in yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toume, Moeko; Tani, Motohiro

    2014-09-01

    Syringomycin E is a cyclic lipodepsipeptide produced by strains of the plant bacterium Pseudomonas syringae pv. syringae. Genetic studies involving the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae have revealed that complex sphingolipids play important roles in the action of syringomycin E. Here, we found a novel mutation that confers resistance to syringomycin E on yeast; that is, a deletion mutant of ORM1 and ORM2, which encode negative regulators of serine palmitoyltransferase catalyzing the initial step of sphingolipid biosynthesis, exhibited resistance to syringomycin E. On the contrary, overexpression of Orm2 resulted in high sensitivity to the toxin. Moreover, overexpression of Lcb1 and Lcb2, catalytic subunits of serine palmitoyltransferase, causes resistance to the toxin, whereas partial repression of expression of Lcb1 had the opposite effect. Partial reduction of complex sphingolipids by repression of expression of Aur1, an inositol phosphorylceramide synthase, also resulted in high sensitivity to the toxin. These results suggested that an increase in sphingolipid biosynthesis caused by a change in the activity of serine palmitoyltransferase causes resistance to syringomycin E. © 2014 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. How Sensitive is the Demand for Primary Education to Changes in Economic Factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Helena Skyt

    2001-01-01

    During the recession in the seventies and the eighties in LDCs in general and in Zambia in specific, private costs of schooling have increased and school quality has deteriorated. Combined with poverty, these changes may have damaged the demand for primary education. This observation motivates a ...... in school are reflected in household income, educational expenses and quality indicators, and the results show that they all affect school enrollment as would be expected, even though the magnitudes of the effects are relatively moderate. Udgivelsesdato: JUL...

  3. How sensitive is the deltoid moment arm to humeral offset changes with reverse total shoulder arthroplasty?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, David R; Kinney, Allison L; Wright, Thomas W; Banks, Scott A

    2016-06-01

    Reverse total shoulder arthroplasty commonly treats cuff-deficient or osteoarthritic shoulders not amenable to rotator cuff repair. This study investigates deltoid moment arm sensitivity to variations in the joint center and humeral offset of 3 representative reverse total shoulder arthroplasty subjects. We hypothesized that a superior joint implant placement may exist, indicated by muscle moment arms, compared with the current actual surgical implant configuration. Moment arms for the anterior, lateral, and posterior aspects of the deltoid muscle were determined for 1521 perturbations of the humeral offset location away from the surgical placement in a subject-specific musculoskeletal model with motion defined by subject-specific in vivo abduction kinematics. The humeral offset was varied from its surgical position ±4 mm in the anterior/posterior direction, ±12 mm in the medial/lateral direction, and -10 to 14 mm in the superior/inferior direction. The anterior deltoid moment arm varied in humeral offset and center of rotation up to 20 mm, primarily in the medial/lateral and superior/inferior directions. The lateral deltoid moment arm varied in humeral offset up to 20 mm, primarily in the medial/lateral and anterior/posterior directions. The posterior deltoid moment arm varied up to 15 mm, primarily in early abduction, and was most sensitive to humeral offset changes in the superior/inferior direction. High variations in muscle moment arms were found for all 3 deltoid components, presenting an opportunity to dramatically change the deltoid moment arms through surgical placement of the reverse shoulder components and by varying the overall offset of the humerus. Basic Science Study; Computer Modeling. Copyright © 2016 Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery Board of Trustees. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Update in outpatient general internal medicine: practice-changing evidence published in 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundsted, Karna K; Wieland, Mark L; Szostek, Jason H; Post, Jason A; Mauck, Karen F

    2015-10-01

    The practice of outpatient general internal medicine requires a diverse and evolving knowledge base. General internists must identify practice-changing shifts in the literature and reflect on their impact. Accordingly, we conducted a review of practice-changing articles published in outpatient general internal medicine in 2014. To identify high-quality, clinically relevant publications, we reviewed all titles and abstracts published in the following primary data sources in 2014: New England Journal of Medicine, Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), Annals of Internal Medicine, JAMA Internal Medicine, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. All 2014 primary data summaries from Journal Watch-General Internal Medicine and ACP JournalWise also were reviewed. The authors used a modified Delphi method to reach consensus on inclusion of 8 articles using the following criteria: clinical relevance to outpatient internal medicine, potential for practice change, and strength of evidence. Clusters of important articles around one clinical question were considered as a single-candidate series. The article merits were debated until consensus was reached on the final 8, spanning a variety of topics commonly encountered in outpatient general internal medicine. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. The sensitivity and specificity of four questions (HARK to identify intimate partner violence: a diagnostic accuracy study in general practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feder Gene

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Intimate partner violence (IPV including physical, sexual and emotional violence, causes short and long term ill-health. Brief questions that reliably identify women experiencing IPV who present in clinical settings are a pre-requisite for an appropriate response from health services to this substantial public health problem. We estimated the sensitivity and specificity of four questions (HARK developed from the Abuse Assessment screen, compared to a 30-item abuse questionnaire, the Composite Abuse Scale (CAS. Methods We administered the four HARK questions and the CAS to women approached by two researchers in general practice waiting rooms in Newham, east London. Inclusions: women aged more than 17 years waiting to see a doctor or nurse, who had been in an intimate relationship in the last year. Exclusions: women who were accompanied by children over four years of age or another adult, too unwell to complete the questionnaires, unable to understand English or unable to give informed consent. Results Two hundred and thirty two women were recruited. The response rate was 54%. The prevalence of current intimate partner violence, within the last 12 months, using the CAS cut off score of ≥3, was 23% (95% C.I. 17% to 28% with pre-test odds of 0.3 (95% C.I. 0.2 to 0.4. The receiver operator characteristic curve demonstrated that a HARK cut off score of ≥1 maximises the true positives whilst minimising the false positives. The sensitivity of the optimal HARK cut-off score of ≥1 was 81% (95% C.I. 69% to 90%, specificity 95% (95% C.I. 91% to 98%, positive predictive value 83% (95% C.I. 70% to 91%, negative predictive value 94% (95% C.I. 90% to 97%, likelihood ratio 16 (95% C.I. 8 to 31 and post-test odds 5. Conclusion The four HARK questions accurately identify women experiencing IPV in the past year and may help women disclose abuse in general practice. The HARK questions could be incorporated into the electronic medical record

  6. Institutional Change as Scholarly Work: General Education Reform at Portland State University

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tetreault, Mary Kathryn; Rhodes, Terrel

    2004-01-01

    A feature article in the "Chronicle of Higher Education" reported a campus controversy over an innovative general education program that received praise and attention nationally. In this essay, two administrators, prompted by that article, both tell the story of institutional change and raise theoretical questions about what the…

  7. Selected translated abstracts of Russian-language climate-change publications. 4: General circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burtis, M.D. [comp.] [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center; Razuvaev, V.N.; Sivachok, S.G. [All-Russian Research Inst. of Hydrometeorological Information--World Data Center, Obninsk (Russian Federation)

    1996-10-01

    This report presents English-translated abstracts of important Russian-language literature concerning general circulation models as they relate to climate change. Into addition to the bibliographic citations and abstracts translated into English, this report presents the original citations and abstracts in Russian. Author and title indexes are included to assist the reader in locating abstracts of particular interest.

  8. Cognition about Cognition: Metacognitive Therapy and Change in Generalized Anxiety Disorder and Social Phobia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Adrian

    2007-01-01

    Metacognitive theory and therapy views the persistence of negative beliefs and thoughts as a result of metacognitions controlling cognition. This paper describes, with reference to the treatment of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and social phobia, how metacognition contributes to cognitive stability and to change. Metacognitive therapy offers…

  9. Preconditions for Sustainable Changes in Didactics Applying Self-Directed Learning in the General Education School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazlauskiene, Ausra; Gaucaite, Ramute; Poceviciene, Rasa

    2016-01-01

    Implementation of the result-oriented (self-)education paradigm in the general education school requires sustainable changes in didactics not only on the strategic document plane but also in educational practice. However, its implementation in practice is complicated. The success of the interaction between theory and practice largely depends on…

  10. Differences in negativity bias probably underlie variation in attitudes toward change generally, not political ideology specifically.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludeke, Steven G; DeYoung, Colin G

    2014-06-01

    Many of the characteristics cited in Hibbing et al.'s account are ineffective predictors of economic conservatism. However, these same characteristics are often associated with differences not only in social conservatism but also in religiousness and authoritarianism. Hibbing et al. may have offered a useful explanation of traditionalism and attitudes toward change across domains rather than of general political attitudes.

  11. Changes in disability in older adults with generalized radiographic osteoarthritis: A complex relationship with physical activity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tak, E.C.; Meurs, J.B. van; Bierma-Zeinstra, S.M.; Hofman, A.; Hopman-Rock, M.

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The aim of the present study was to report on factors associated with changes in disability after 5 years, with a focus on physical activity (PA) in community-dwelling older adults with generalized radiographic osteoarthritis (GROA). METHODS: Assessment of GROA (hand, knee, hip) and

  12. Trained, Generalized, and Collateral Behavior Changes of Preschool Children Receiving Gross-Motor Skills Training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirby, Kimberly C.; Holborn, Stephen W.

    1986-01-01

    Three preschool children participated in a behavioral training program to improve their gross-motor skills. Results indicated that the program improved the 10 targeted gross-motor skills and that improvements sometimes generalized to other settings. The program did not produce changes in fine-motor skills or social behaviors. Implications are…

  13. Sensitivity of hydrological modeling to meteorological data and implications for climate change studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roy, L.G.; Roy, R.; Desrochers, G.E.; Vaillancourt, C.; Chartier, I.

    2008-01-01

    There are uncertainties associated with the use of hydrological models. This study aims to analyse one source of uncertainty associated with hydrological modeling, particularly in the context of climate change studies on water resources. Additional intent of this study is to compare the ability of some meteorological data sources, used in conjunction with an hydrological model, to reproduce the hydrologic regime of a watershed. A case study on a watershed of south-western Quebec, Canada using five different sources of meteorological data as input to an offline hydrological model are presented in this paper. Data used came from weather stations, NCEP reanalysis, ERA40 reanalysis and two Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) runs driven by NCEP and ERA40 reanalysis, providing atmospheric driving boundary conditions to this limited-area climate model. To investigate the sensitivity of simulated streamflow to different sources of meteorological data, we first calibrated the hydrological model with each of the meteorological data sets over the 1961-1980 period. The five different sets of parameters of the hydrological model were then used to simulate streamflow of the 1981-2000 validation period with the five meteorological data sets as inputs. The 25 simulated streamflow series have been compared to the observed streamflow of the watershed. The five meteorological data sets do not have the same ability, when used with the hydrological model, to reproduce streamflow. Our results show also that the hydrological model parameters used may have an important influence on results such as water balance, but it is linked with the differences that may have in the characteristics of the meteorological data used. For climate change impacts assessments on water resources, we have found that there is an uncertainty associated with the meteorological data used to calibrate the model. For expected changes on mean annual flows of the Chateauguay River, our results vary from a small

  14. Optimization of economic load dispatch of higher order general cost polynomials and its sensitivity using modified particle swarm optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saber, Ahmed Yousuf; Chakraborty, Shantanu; Abdur Razzak, S.M.; Senjyu, Tomonobu

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a modified particle swarm optimization (MPSO) for constrained economic load dispatch (ELD) problem. Real cost functions are more complex than conventional second order cost functions when multi-fuel operations, valve-point effects, accurate curve fitting, etc., are considering in deregulated changing market. The proposed modified particle swarm optimization (PSO) consists of problem dependent variable number of promising values (in velocity vector), unit vector and error-iteration dependent step length. It reliably and accurately tracks a continuously changing solution of the complex cost function and no extra concentration/effort is needed for the complex higher order cost polynomials in ELD. Constraint management is incorporated in the modified PSO. The modified PSO has balance between local and global searching abilities, and an appropriate fitness function helps to converge it quickly. To avoid the method to be frozen, stagnated/idle particles are reset. Sensitivity of the higher order cost polynomials is also analyzed visually to realize the importance of the higher order cost polynomials for the optimization of ELD. Finally, benchmark data sets and methods are used to show the effectiveness of the proposed method. (author)

  15. An Application to the Prediction of LOD Change Based on General Regression Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X. H.; Wang, Q. J.; Zhu, J. J.; Zhang, H.

    2011-07-01

    Traditional prediction of the LOD (length of day) change was based on linear models, such as the least square model and the autoregressive technique, etc. Due to the complex non-linear features of the LOD variation, the performances of the linear model predictors are not fully satisfactory. This paper applies a non-linear neural network - general regression neural network (GRNN) model to forecast the LOD change, and the results are analyzed and compared with those obtained with the back propagation neural network and other models. The comparison shows that the performance of the GRNN model in the prediction of the LOD change is efficient and feasible.

  16. Sensitivity of Estuaries to Coastal Morphological Change Induced by Sea Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alizad, K.; Hagen, S. C.; Bilskie, M. V.; Mariotti, G.

    2017-12-01

    Coastal wetlands play a critical role by providing food and habitat for a variety of species and by dissipating wave and storm surge. These regions are also vulnerable to climate change and specifically rising sea levels. Projections show that coastal marshes across the Northern Gulf of Mexico are threatened by a higher risk of losing their productivity through increased inundation depth and time [Alizad et al., 2016a]. Individual estuaries will respond differently to stressors based on local conditions such as tidal range, creek geometry, and sediment sources, among others. In addition, morphological changes in estuaries are functions of both physical processes such as hydrodynamics and wind waves as well as biological mechanisms. To investigate the sensitivity of storm surge to bio-geomorphological changes associated with climate change within an estuary, the Hydro-MEM model [Alizad et al., 2016b] and first-order bathymetric changes were applied for a set of sea level rise (SLR) scenarios. Morphologic change in the form of marsh platform accretion and enhanced bay bathymetry through time was employed in an ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) shallow-water equation model. The model was used to run synthetic storm simulations for an intermediate-low (0.5 m), intermediate-high (1.2 m), and high (2.0 m) SLR scenarios in Grand Bay, MS (marine dominated) and Weeks Bay, AL (mixed) estuaries. Results including with and without morphologic changes applied will be discussed. Future steps for incorporating morphological effects including channel widening and wave erosion processes into the Hydro-MEM model is to couple morphologic and hydrodynamic models [Mariotti and Canestrelli, 2017] in the Hydro-MEM time step framework. ReferencesAlizad, K., S. C. Hagen, J. T. Morris, S. C. Medeiros, M. V. Bilskie, and J. F. Weishampel (2016a), Coastal wetland response to sea-level rise in a fluvial estuarine system, Earth's Future, 4(11), 483-497. Alizad, K., S. C. Hagen, J. T. Morris, P

  17. Attributing the effects of climate on phenology change suggests high sensitivity in coastal zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seyednasrollah, B.; Clark, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    The impact of climate change on spring phenology depends on many variables that cannot be separated using current models. Phenology can influence carbon sequestration, plant nutrition, forest health, and species distributions. Leaf phenology is sensitive to changes of environmental factors, including climate, species composition, latitude, and solar radiation. The many variables and their interactions frustrate efforts to attribute variation to climate change. We developed a Bayesian framework to quantify the influence of environment on the speed of forest green-up. This study presents a state-space hierarchical model to infer and predict change in forest greenness over time using satellite observations and ground measurements. The framework accommodates both observation and process errors and it allows for main effects of variables and their interactions. We used daily spaceborne remotely sensed data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to quantify temporal variability in the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) along a habitat gradient in the Southeastern United States. The ground measurements of meteorological parameters are obtained from study sites located in the Appalachian Mountains, the Piedmont and the Atlantic Coastal Plain between years 2000 and 2015. Results suggest that warming accelerates spring green-up in the Coastal Plain to a greater degree than in the Piedmont and Appalachian. In other words, regardless of variation in the timing of spring onset, the rate of greenness in non-coastal zones decreases with increasing temperature and hence with time over the spring transitional period. However, in coastal zones, as air temperature increases, leaf expansion becomes faster. This may indicate relative vulnerability to warming in non-coastal regions where moisture could be a limiting factor, whereas high temperatures in regions close to the coast enhance forest physiological activities. Model predictions agree with the remotely

  18. Sensitivity to change of youth treatment outcome measures: a comparison of the CBCL, BASC-2, and Y-OQ.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClendon, Debra T; Warren, Jared S; Green, Katherine M; Burlingame, Gary M; Eggett, Dennis L; McClendon, Richard J

    2011-01-01

    This study evaluated the relative sensitivity to change of the Child Behavior Checklist/6-18 (CBCL), the Behavior Assessment System for Children-2 (BASC-2), and the Youth Outcome Questionnaire 2.01 (Y-OQ). Participants were 134 parents and 44 adolescents receiving routine outpatient services in a community mental health system. Hierarchical linear modeling analyses were used to examine change trajectories for the 3 measures across 3 groups: parent informants, parent and adolescent dyads, and adolescent informants. Results indicated that for parent-report measures, the Y-OQ was most change sensitive; the BASC-2 and CBCL were not statistically different from each other. Significant differences in change sensitivity were not observed for youth self-report of symptoms. Results suggest that the Y-OQ may be particularly useful for evaluating change in overall psychosocial functioning in children and adolescents. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. The 2007-2009 Financial Crisis: Changing Market Dynamics and the Impact of Credit Supply and Aggregate Demand Sensitivity

    OpenAIRE

    Theoharry Grammatikos; Robert Vermeulen

    2012-01-01

    This paper highlights the impact of credit supply and aggregate demand sensitivity on 91 US industries' stock performance during the 2007-2009 financial crisis. We account explicitly for changes in the market model and investigate, next to stock returns, the changes in systematic risk and idiosyncratic return induced by the financial crisis. The results show that leverage has a significantly positive effect on systematic risk changes during the financial crisis. After accounting for the chang...

  20. Forest ecotone response to climate change: sensitivity to temperature response functional forms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loehle, C. [National Council for Air and Stream Improvement, Naperville, IL (United States)

    2000-10-01

    Past simulation studies have been in general agreement that climatic change could have adverse effects on forests, including geographic range shrinkages, conversion to grassland, and catastrophic forest decline or dieback. Some other recent studies, however, concluded that this agreement is generally based on parabolic temperature response rather than functional responses or data, and may therefore exaggerate dieback effects. This paper proposes a new model of temperature response that is based on a trade-off between cold tolerance and growth rate. In this model, the growth rate increases at first, and then levels off with increasing growing degree-days. Species from more southern regions have a higher minimum temperature and a faster maximum height growth rate. It is argued that faster growth rates of southern types lead to their competitive superiority in warmer environments and that such temperature response should produce less dieback and slower rates of change than the more common parabolic response model. Theoretical justification of this model is provided, followed by application of the model to a simulated ecotone under a warming scenario. Results of the study based on the proposed asymptotic model showed no dieback and only a gradual ecotone movement north, suggesting that ecotone shifts will, in fact, take many hundreds to thousands of years, with the result that species will not face the risk of extinction. 56 refs., 1 tab., 8 figs.

  1. Effect of changes in PCO2 and body positions on intraocular pressure during general anaesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hvidberg, A; Kessing, S V; Fernandes, A

    1981-08-01

    Elevated arterial carbon dioxide tension, induced by the administration of CO2 via the respiratory air or by hypoventilation, entailed a gradual increase in the IOP in patients without eye diseases under general anaesthesia. A sudden cessation of CO2 administration or hyperventilation caused such a rapid, simultaneous fall in IOP to values below the initial level that the pressure variations must be of vascular nature, presumably related to changes in choroidal blood volume. The above-mentioned procedures always cause a change in the central venous pressure (CVP) simultaneously with the IOP changes. Alterations of the CVP induced by hydrostatic factors in postural changes, placing the head 15 degrees above or below the horizontal level while keeping the PaCO2 constant, caused IOP changes of the same configuration and magnitude as described above. It is concluded, therefore, that presumably the CO2-conditioned IOP changes are due predominantly to changes in central venous pressure, being one link in a CO2-conditioned action upon the general circulation, entailing passive secondary changes in the choroidal venous blood volume and thereby an influence upon the IOP. On the basis of the present results it appears rational to recommend hyperventilation to keep the PaCO2 between 25 and 30 mm and a 15 degree anti-Trendelenburg position in operations on the eye under general anaesthesia, since both procedures afford a low central venous pressure and consequently a low pressure in the posterior segment of the eye, with its attendant advantages as regards vitreous complications and the insertion of intraocular lenses. Owing to the risk of an unacceptable fall in BP in the combined procedure, a frequent checking of the BP is needed.

  2. Application of General Regression Neural Network to the Prediction of LOD Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-Hong; Wang, Qi-Jie; Zhu, Jian-Jun; Zhang, Hao

    2012-01-01

    Traditional methods for predicting the change in length of day (LOD change) are mainly based on some linear models, such as the least square model and autoregression model, etc. However, the LOD change comprises complicated non-linear factors and the prediction effect of the linear models is always not so ideal. Thus, a kind of non-linear neural network — general regression neural network (GRNN) model is tried to make the prediction of the LOD change and the result is compared with the predicted results obtained by taking advantage of the BP (back propagation) neural network model and other models. The comparison result shows that the application of the GRNN to the prediction of the LOD change is highly effective and feasible.

  3. Integrating the context-appropriate balanced attention model and reinforcement sensitivity theory: Towards a domain-general personality process model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Michael D; Jackson, Chris J; Walker, Benjamin R; O'Connor, Peter J; Gardiner, Elliroma

    2017-01-01

    Over the last 40 years or more the personality literature has been dominated by trait models based on the Big Five (B5). Trait-based models describe personality at the between-person level but cannot explain the within-person mental mechanisms responsible for personality. Nor can they adequately account for variations in emotion and behavior experienced by individuals across different situations and over time. An alternative, yet understated, approach to personality architecture can be found in neurobiological theories of personality, most notably reinforcement sensitivity theory (RST). In contrast to static trait-based personality models like the B5, RST provides a more plausible basis for a personality process model, namely, one that explains how emotions and behavior arise from the dynamic interaction between contextual factors and within-person mental mechanisms. In this article, the authors review the evolution of a neurobiologically based personality process model based on RST, the response modulation model and the context-appropriate balanced attention model. They argue that by integrating this complex literature, and by incorporating evidence from personality neuroscience, one can meaningfully explain personality at both the within- and between-person levels. This approach achieves a domain-general architecture based on RST and self-regulation that can be used to align within-person mental mechanisms, neurobiological systems and between-person measurement models. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  4. Observed forest sensitivity to climate implies large changes in 21st century North American forest growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charney, Noah D; Babst, Flurin; Poulter, Benjamin; Record, Sydne; Trouet, Valerie M; Frank, David; Enquist, Brian J; Evans, Margaret E K

    2016-09-01

    Predicting long-term trends in forest growth requires accurate characterisation of how the relationship between forest productivity and climatic stress varies across climatic regimes. Using a network of over two million tree-ring observations spanning North America and a space-for-time substitution methodology, we forecast climate impacts on future forest growth. We explored differing scenarios of increased water-use efficiency (WUE) due to CO2 -fertilisation, which we simulated as increased effective precipitation. In our forecasts: (1) climate change negatively impacted forest growth rates in the interior west and positively impacted forest growth along the western, southeastern and northeastern coasts; (2) shifting climate sensitivities offset positive effects of warming on high-latitude forests, leaving no evidence for continued 'boreal greening'; and (3) it took a 72% WUE enhancement to compensate for continentally averaged growth declines under RCP 8.5. Our results highlight the importance of locally adapted forest management strategies to handle regional differences in growth responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  5. Reduced spore germination explains sensitivity of reef-building algae to climate change stressors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra Ordoñez

    Full Text Available Reduced seawater pH and changes in carbonate chemistry associated with ocean acidification (OA decrease the recruitment of crustose coralline algae (CCAcf., an important coral-reef builder. However, it is unclear whether the observed decline in recruitment is driven by impairment of spore germination, or post-settlement processes (e.g. space competition. To address this, we conducted an experiment using a dominant CCA, Porolithon cf. onkodes to test the independent and combined effects of OA, warming, and irradiance on its germination success and early development. Elevated CO2 negatively affected several processes of spore germination, including formation of the germination disc, initial growth, and germling survival. The magnitude of these effects varied depending on the levels of temperature and irradiance. For example, the combination of high CO2 and high temperature reduced formation of the germination disc, but this effect was independent of irradiance levels, while spore abnormalities increased under high CO2 and high temperature particularly in combination with low irradiance intensity. This study demonstrates that spore germination of CCA is impacted by the independent and interactive effects of OA, increasing seawater temperature and irradiance intensity. For the first time, this provides a mechanism for how the sensitivity of critical early life history processes to global change may drive declines of adult populations of key marine calcifiers.

  6. Behavioral sensitivity to changing reinforcement contingencies in attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alsop, Brent; Furukawa, Emi; Sowerby, Paula; Jensen, Stephanie; Moffat, Cara; Tripp, Gail

    2016-08-01

    Altered sensitivity to positive reinforcement has been hypothesized to contribute to the symptoms of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). In this study, we evaluated the ability of children with and without ADHD to adapt their behavior to changing reinforcer availability. Of one hundred sixty-seven children, 97 diagnosed with ADHD completed a signal-detection task in which correct discriminations between two stimuli were associated with different frequencies of reinforcement. The response alternative associated with the higher rate of reinforcement switched twice during the task without warning. For a subset of participants, this was followed by trials for which no reinforcement was delivered, irrespective of performance. Children in both groups developed an initial bias toward the more frequently reinforced response alternative. When the response alternative associated with the higher rate of reinforcement switched, the children's response allocation (bias) followed suit, but this effect was significantly smaller for children with ADHD. When reinforcement was discontinued, only children in the control group modified their response pattern. Children with ADHD adjust their behavioral responses to changing reinforcer availability less than typically developing children, when reinforcement is intermittent and the association between an action and its consequences is uncertain. This may explain the difficulty children with ADHD have adapting their behavior to new situations, with different reinforcement contingencies, in daily life. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  7. Comparison of increased venous contrast in ischemic stroke using phase-sensitive MR imaging with perfusion changes on flow-sensitive alternating inversion recovery at 3 Tesla

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamashita, Eijiro; Kanasaki, Yoshiko; Fujii, Shinya; Ogawa, Toshihide; Tanaka, Takuro; Hirata, Yoshiharu

    2011-01-01

    Background Increased venous contrast in ischemic stroke using susceptibility-weighted imaging has been widely reported, although few reports have compared increased venous contrast areas with perfusion change areas. Purpose To compare venous contrast on phase-sensitive MR images (PSI) with perfusion change on flow-sensitive alternating inversion recovery (FAIR) images, and to discuss the clinical use of PSI in ischemic stroke. Material and Methods Thirty patients with clinically suspected acute infarction of the middle cerebral artery (MCA) territory within 7 days of onset were evaluated. Phase-sensitive imaging (PSI), flow-sensitive alternating inversion recovery (FAIR), diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) and magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) were obtained using 3 Tesla scanner. Two neuroradiologists independently reviewed the MR images, as well as the PSI, DWI, and FAIR images. They were blinded to the clinical data and to each other's findings. The abnormal area of each image was ultimately identified after both neuroradiologists reached consensus. We analyzed areas of increased venous contrast on PSI, perfusion changes on FAIR images and signal changes on DWI for each case. Results Venous contrast increased on PSI and hypoperfusion was evident on FAIR images from 22 of the 30 patients (73%). The distribution of the increased venous contrast was the same as that of the hypoperfused areas on FAIR images in 16 of these 22. The extent of these lesions was larger than that of lesions visualized by on DWI in 18 of the 22 patients. Hypointense signals reflecting hemorrhage and no increased venous contrast on PSI and hyperperfusion on FAIR images were found in six of the remaining eight patients (20%). Findings on PSI were normal and hypoperfusion areas were absent on FAIR images of two patients (7%). Conclusion Increased venous contrast on PSI might serve as an index of misery perfusion and provide useful information

  8. Comparing stream-specific to generalized temperature models to guide salmonid management in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew K. Carlson,; William W. Taylor,; Hartikainen, Kelsey M.; Dana M. Infante,; Beard, Douglas; Lynch, Abigail

    2017-01-01

    Global climate change is predicted to increase air and stream temperatures and alter thermal habitat suitability for growth and survival of coldwater fishes, including brook charr (Salvelinus fontinalis), brown trout (Salmo trutta), and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). In a changing climate, accurate stream temperature modeling is increasingly important for sustainable salmonid management throughout the world. However, finite resource availability (e.g. funding, personnel) drives a tradeoff between thermal model accuracy and efficiency (i.e. cost-effective applicability at management-relevant spatial extents). Using different projected climate change scenarios, we compared the accuracy and efficiency of stream-specific and generalized (i.e. region-specific) temperature models for coldwater salmonids within and outside the State of Michigan, USA, a region with long-term stream temperature data and productive coldwater fisheries. Projected stream temperature warming between 2016 and 2056 ranged from 0.1 to 3.8 °C in groundwater-dominated streams and 0.2–6.8 °C in surface-runoff dominated systems in the State of Michigan. Despite their generally lower accuracy in predicting exact stream temperatures, generalized models accurately projected salmonid thermal habitat suitability in 82% of groundwater-dominated streams, including those with brook charr (80% accuracy), brown trout (89% accuracy), and rainbow trout (75% accuracy). In contrast, generalized models predicted thermal habitat suitability in runoff-dominated streams with much lower accuracy (54%). These results suggest that, amidst climate change and constraints in resource availability, generalized models are appropriate to forecast thermal conditions in groundwater-dominated streams within and outside Michigan and inform regional-level salmonid management strategies that are practical for coldwater fisheries managers, policy makers, and the public. We recommend fisheries professionals reserve resource

  9. A local scale assessment of the climate change sensitivity of snow in Pyrenean ski resorts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesado, Cristina; Pons, Marc; Vilella, Marc; López-Moreno, Juan Ignacio

    2016-04-01

    The Pyrenees host one of the largest ski area in Europe after the Alps that encompasses the mountain area of the south of France, the north of Spain and the small country of Andorra. In this region, winter tourism is one of the main source of income and driving force of local development on these mountain communities. However, this activity was identified as one of the most vulnerable to a future climate change due to the projected decrease of natural snow and snowmaking capacity. However, within the same ski resorts different areas showed to have a very different vulnerability within the same resort based on the geographic features of the area and the technical management of the slopes. Different areas inside a same ski resort could have very different vulnerability to future climate change based on aspect, steepness or elevation. Furthermore, the technical management of ski resorts, such as snowmaking and grooming were identified to have a significant impact on the response of the snowpack in a warmer climate. In this line, two different ski resorts were deeply analyzed taken into account both local geographical features as well as the effect of the technical management of the runs. Principal Component Analysis was used to classify the main areas of the resort based on the geographic features (elevation, aspect and steepness) and identify the main representative areas with different local features. Snow energy and mass balance was simulated in the different representative areas using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model (CRHM) assuming different magnitudes of climate warming (increases of 2°C and 4°C in the mean winter temperature) both in natural conditions and assuming technical management of the slopes. Theses first results showed the different sensitivity and vulnerability to climate changes based on the local geography of the resort and the management of the ski runs, showing the importance to include these variables when analyzing the local vulnerability

  10. Temporal changes in sphingolipids and systemic insulin sensitivity during the transition from gestation to lactation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Eduardo Rico

    Full Text Available Reduced insulin action develops naturally during the peripartum to ensure maternal nutrient delivery to the fetus and neonate. However, increased insulin resistance can facilitate excessive lipolysis which in turn promotes metabolic disease in overweight dairy cattle. Increased fatty acid availability favors the accumulation of the sphingolipid ceramide and is implicated in the pathogenesis of insulin resistance, however, the relationship between sphingolipid metabolism and insulin resistance during the peripartum remains largely unknown. Our objectives were to characterize temporal responses in plasma and tissue sphingolipids in lean and overweight peripartal cows and to establish the relationships between sphingolipid supply and lipolysis, hepatic lipid deposition, and systemic insulin action. Twenty-one multiparous lean and overweight Holstein cows were enrolled in a longitudinal study spanning the transition from gestation to lactation (d -21 to 21, relative to parturition. Plasma, liver, and skeletal muscle samples were obtained, and sphingolipids were profiled using LC/MS/MS. Insulin sensitivity was assessed utilizing intravenous insulin and glucose challenges. Our results demonstrated the following: first, insulin resistance develops postpartum concurrently with increased lipolysis and hepatic lipid accumulation; second, ceramides and glycosylated ceramides accumulate during the transition from gestation to lactation and are further elevated in overweight cows; third, ceramide accrual is associated with lipolysis and liver lipid accumulation, and C16:0- and C24:0-ceramide are inversely associated with systemic insulin sensitivity postpartum; fourth, plasma sphingomyelin, a potential source of ceramides reaches a nadir at parturition and is closely associated with feed intake; fifth, select sphingomyelins are lower in the plasma of overweight cows during the peripartal period. Our results demonstrate that dynamic changes occur in

  11. Temporal changes in sphingolipids and systemic insulin sensitivity during the transition from gestation to lactation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rico, J. Eduardo; Saed Samii, Sina; Mathews, Alice T.; Lovett, Jacqueline; Haughey, Norman J.; McFadden, Joseph W.

    2017-01-01

    Reduced insulin action develops naturally during the peripartum to ensure maternal nutrient delivery to the fetus and neonate. However, increased insulin resistance can facilitate excessive lipolysis which in turn promotes metabolic disease in overweight dairy cattle. Increased fatty acid availability favors the accumulation of the sphingolipid ceramide and is implicated in the pathogenesis of insulin resistance, however, the relationship between sphingolipid metabolism and insulin resistance during the peripartum remains largely unknown. Our objectives were to characterize temporal responses in plasma and tissue sphingolipids in lean and overweight peripartal cows and to establish the relationships between sphingolipid supply and lipolysis, hepatic lipid deposition, and systemic insulin action. Twenty-one multiparous lean and overweight Holstein cows were enrolled in a longitudinal study spanning the transition from gestation to lactation (d -21 to 21, relative to parturition). Plasma, liver, and skeletal muscle samples were obtained, and sphingolipids were profiled using LC/MS/MS. Insulin sensitivity was assessed utilizing intravenous insulin and glucose challenges. Our results demonstrated the following: first, insulin resistance develops postpartum concurrently with increased lipolysis and hepatic lipid accumulation; second, ceramides and glycosylated ceramides accumulate during the transition from gestation to lactation and are further elevated in overweight cows; third, ceramide accrual is associated with lipolysis and liver lipid accumulation, and C16:0- and C24:0-ceramide are inversely associated with systemic insulin sensitivity postpartum; fourth, plasma sphingomyelin, a potential source of ceramides reaches a nadir at parturition and is closely associated with feed intake; fifth, select sphingomyelins are lower in the plasma of overweight cows during the peripartal period. Our results demonstrate that dynamic changes occur in peripartal sphingolipids

  12. Cohort Removal Induces Changes in Body Temperature, Pain Sensitivity, and Anxiety-Like Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takao, Keizo; Shoji, Hirotaka; Hattori, Satoko; Miyakawa, Tsuyoshi

    2016-01-01

    Mouse behavior is analyzed to elucidate the effects of various experimental manipulations, including gene mutation and drug administration. When the effect of a factor of interest is assessed, other factors, such as age, sex, temperature, apparatus, and housing, are controlled in experiments by matching, counterbalancing, and/or randomizing. One such factor that has not attracted much attention is the effect of sequential removal of animals from a common cage (cohort removal). Here we evaluated the effects of cohort removal on rectal temperature, pain sensitivity, and anxiety-like behavior by analyzing the combined data of a large number of C57BL/6J mice that we collected using a comprehensive behavioral test battery. Rectal temperature increased in a stepwise manner according to the position of sequential removal from the cage, consistent with previous reports. In the hot plate test, the mice that were removed first from the cage had a significantly longer latency to show the first paw response than the mice removed later. In the elevated plus maze, the mice removed first spent significantly less time on the open arms compared to the mice removed later. The results of the present study demonstrated that cohort removal induces changes in body temperature, pain sensitivity, and anxiety-like behavior in mice. Cohort removal also increased the plasma corticosterone concentration in mice. Thus, the ordinal position in the sequence of removal from the cage should be carefully counterbalanced between groups when the effect of experimental manipulations, including gene manipulation and drug administration, are examined using behavioral tests. PMID:27375443

  13. Cohort removal induces changes in body temperature, pain sensitivity, and anxiety-like behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keizo eTakao

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Mouse behavior is analyzed to elucidate the effects of various experimental manipulations, including gene mutation and drug administration. When the effect of a factor of interest is assessed, other factors, such as age, sex, temperature, apparatus, and housing, are controlled in experiments by matching, counterbalancing, and/or randomizing. One such factor that has not attracted much attention is the effect of sequential removal of animals from a common cage (cohort removal. Here we evaluated the effects of cohort removal on rectal temperature, pain sensitivity, and anxiety-like behavior by analyzing the combined data of a large number of C57BL/6J mice that we collected using a comprehensive behavioral test battery. Rectal temperature increased in a stepwise manner according to the position of sequential removal from the cage, consistent with previous reports. In the hot plate test, the mice that were removed first from the cage had a significantly longer latency to show the first paw response than the mice removed later. In the elevated plus maze, the mice removed first spent significantly less time on the open arms compared to the mice removed later. The results of the present study demonstrated that cohort removal induces changes in body temperature, pain sensitivity, and anxiety-like behavior in mice. Cohort removal also increased the plasma corticosterone concentration in mice. Thus, the ordinal position in the sequence of removal from the cage should be carefully counterbalanced between groups when the effect of experimental manipulations, including gene manipulation and drug administration, are examined using behavioral tests.

  14. Sensitivity analysis of hydrogeological parameters affecting groundwater storage change caused by sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, J.; Kim, K.-H.; Lee, K.-K.

    2012-04-01

    Sea level rise, which is one of the representative phenomena of climate changes caused by global warming, can affect groundwater system. The rising trend of the sea level caused by the global warming is reported to be about 3 mm/year for the most recent 10 year average (IPCC, 2007). The rate of sea level rise around the Korean peninsula is reported to be 2.30±2.22 mm/yr during the 1960-1999 period (Cho, 2002) and 2.16±1.77 mm/yr (Kim et al., 2009) during the 1968-2007 period. Both of these rates are faster than the 1.8±0.5 mm/yr global average for the similar 1961-2003 period (IPCC, 2007). In this study, we analyzed changes in the groundwater environment affected by the sea level rise by using an analytical methodology. We tried to find the most effective parameters of groundwater amount change in order to estimate the change in fresh water amount in coastal groundwater. A hypothetical island model of a cylindrical shape in considered. The groundwater storage change is bi-directional as the sea level rises according to the natural and hydrogeological conditions. Analysis of the computation results shows that topographic slope and hydraulic conductivity are the most sensitive factors. The contributions of the groundwater recharge rate and the thickness of aquifer below sea level are relatively less effective. In the island with steep seashore slopes larger than 1~2 degrees or so, the storage amount of fresh water in a coastal area increases as sea level rises. On the other hand, when sea level drops, the storage amount decreases. This is because the groundwater level also rises with the rising sea level in steep seashores. For relatively flat seashores, where the slope is smaller than around 1-2 degrees, the storage amount of coastal fresh water decreases when the sea level rises because the area flooded by the rising sea water is increased. The volume of aquifer fresh water in this circumstance is greatly reduced in proportion to the flooded area with the sea

  15. Clustering of diet, physical activity and smoking and a general willingness to change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vries, Hein; Kremers, Stef; Smeets, Tamara; Reubsaet, Astrid

    2008-01-01

    Addressing multiple health behaviours are important in preventing disease and mortality. The present study investigated the clustering of health behaviours, cognitive determinants and stages of change in 2827 adults for the lifestyle factors of physical activity, fruit, vegetable and fat consumption and smoking. The results showed that only 3% of the total population met recommended guidelines for all of the five behaviours. Behaviours were found to be weakly associated. Behaviour-specific cognitions and stages of change for the behaviours clustered more strongly, however. With respect to diet and physical activity, respondents in the preparation stage for one behaviour were likely also to be preparing to change another behaviour. Possible mechanisms for the apparent general willingness to change multiple behaviours are discussed, as well as potential implications for health promotion practice.

  16. Change in self-rated general health is associated with perceived illness burden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Anni Brit Sternhagen; Jensen, Per; Gannik, Dorte Effersøe

    2015-01-01

    Background: iabetic patients’ lifestyle adaptations to improve glycaemic control are not always followed by improvements in self-rated general health (SRH). The perceived impact of diabetes on patients’ daily lives may influence changes in their SRH. This paper examines the association of illness...... diabetes-related symptoms, and cardiovascular disease were related to lower SRH ratings. On average SRH improved by 0.46 (95% CI: 0.37; 0.55) during the first year after diagnosis without inclusion of covariates. Mental and practical illness burden was the only factor associated with change in SRH...

  17. Minor Electrocardiographic ST-T Change and Risk of Stroke in the General Japanese Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishikawa, Joji; Hirose, Hideo; Schwartz, Joseph E; Ishikawa, Shizukiyo

    2018-06-25

    Minor ST-T changes are frequently observed on the electrocardiogram (ECG), but the risk of stroke associated with such changes is unclear.Methods and Results:In 10,642 subjects from the Japanese general population, we evaluated minor and major ST-T changes (major ST depression ≥0.1 mV) on ECGs obtained at annual health examinations. At baseline, minor ST-T changes were found in 10.7% of the subjects and 0.5% had major ST-T changes. Minor ST-T changes were associated with older age, female gender, higher systolic blood pressure, presence of hyperlipidemia, and use of antihypertensive medication. There were 375 stroke events during the follow-up period (128.7±28.1 months). In all subjects, minor ST-T changes (HR, 2.10; 95% CI: 1.57-2.81) and major ST-T changes (HR, 8.64; 95% CI: 4.44-16.82) were associated with an increased risk of stroke, but the stroke risk associated with minor ST-T changes had borderline significance after adjustment for conventional risk factors (P=0.055). In subgroup analysis, the risk of stroke was significantly associated with minor ST-T changes in subjects who had hyperlipidemia (HR, 1.75; 95% CI: 1.15-2.67) compared to those without hyperlipidemia (HR, 1.01; 95% CI: 0.64-1.59; P for interaction=0.016), even after adjustment for ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy. Minor ST-T changes were particularly associated with a higher risk of stroke in subjects with hyperlipidemia and this association was independent of electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy.

  18. Climate change in Germany. Vulnerability and adaption of climate sensitive sectors; Klimawandel in Deutschland. Vulnerabilitaet und Anpassungsstrategien klimasensitiver Systeme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zebisch, Marc; Grothmann, Torsten; Schroeter, Dagmar; Hasse, Clemens; Fritsch, Uta; Cramer, Wolfgang [Potsdam Institut fuer Klimaforschung, Potsdam (Germany)

    2005-08-15

    The objectives of this study were the following: documentation of existing knowledge on global change (and particularly climate change) in Germany and to analysis of its current and potential future impacts on seven climate-sensitive sectors (water management, agriculture, forestry, biodiversity/nature conservation, health, tourism and transport).; the evaluation of the present degree of adaptation and the adaptive capacity of these climate-sensitive sectors to global change; conclusions on the vulnerability to global change of sectors and regions in Germany by considering potential global change impacts, degrees of adaptation and adaptive capacity; and the discussion of the results of the study with decision-makers from government, administration, economy and society, in order to develop a basis for the development of strategies of adaptation to global change in Germany.

  19. Identification of Climate Change with Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) Distribution Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahayu, Anita

    2013-01-01

    Some events are difficult to avoid and gives considerable influence to humans and the environment is extreme weather and climate change. Many of the problems that require knowledge about the behavior of extreme values and one of the methods used are the Extreme Value Theory (EVT). EVT used to draw up reliable systems in a variety of conditions, so as to minimize the risk of a major disaster. There are two methods for identifying extreme value, Block Maxima with Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution approach and Peaks over Threshold (POT) with Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. This research in Indramayu with January 1961-December 2003 period, the method used is Block Maxima with GEV distribution approach. The result showed that there is no climate change in Indramayu with January 1961-December 2003 period.

  20. Existence of Positive Solutions to Singular -Laplacian General Dirichlet Boundary Value Problems with Sign Changing Nonlinearity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiying Wei

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available By using the well-known Schauder fixed point theorem and upper and lower solution method, we present some existence criteria for positive solution of an -point singular -Laplacian dynamic equation on time scales with the sign changing nonlinearity. These results are new even for the corresponding differential (=ℝ and difference equations (=ℤ, as well as in general time scales setting. As an application, an example is given to illustrate the results.

  1. O-GlcNAcase expression is sensitive to changes in O-GlcNAc homeostasis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZHEN eZHANG

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available O-linked N-acetylglucosamine (O-GlcNAc is a post-translational modification involving an attachment of a single β-N-acetylglucosamine moiety to serine or threonine residues in nuclear and cytoplasmic proteins. Cellular O-GlcNAc levels are regulated by two enzymes: O-GlcNAc transferase (OGT and O-GlcNAcase (OGA, which add and remove the modification respectively. The levels of O-GlcNAc can rapidly change in response to fluctuations in the extracellular environment; however, O-GlcNAcylation returns to a baseline level quickly after stimulus removal. This process termed O-GlcNAc homeostasis appears to be critical to the regulation of many cellular functions including cell cycle progress, stress response, and gene transcription. Disruptions in O-GlcNAc homeostasis are proposed to lead to the development of diseases such as cancer, diabetes, and Alzheimer’s disease. O-GlcNAc homeostasis is correlated with the expression of OGT and OGA. We reason that alterations in O-GlcNAc levels affect OGA and OGT transcription. We treated several human cell lines with Thiamet-G (TMG, an OGA inhibitor to increase overall O-GlcNAc levels resulting in decreased OGT protein expression and increased OGA protein expression. OGT transcript levels slightly declined with TMG treatment, but OGA transcript levels were significantly increased. Pretreating cells with protein translation inhibitor cycloheximide (CHX did not stabilize OGT or OGA protein expression in the presence of TMG; nor did TMG stabilize OGT and OGA mRNA levels when cells were treated with RNA transcription inhibitor actinomycin D (AMD. Finally, we performed RNA Polymerase II chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP at the OGA promoter and found RNA Pol II occupancy at the transcription start site (TSS was lower after prolonged TMG treatment. Together, these data suggest that OGA transcription was sensitive to changes in O-GlcNAc homeostasis and was potentially regulated by O-GlcNAc.

  2. O-GlcNAcase Expression is Sensitive to Changes in O-GlcNAc Homeostasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhen; Tan, Ee Phie; VandenHull, Nicole J; Peterson, Kenneth R; Slawson, Chad

    2014-01-01

    O-linked N-acetylglucosamine (O-GlcNAc) is a post-translational modification involving an attachment of a single β-N-acetylglucosamine moiety to serine or threonine residues in nuclear and cytoplasmic proteins. Cellular O-GlcNAc levels are regulated by two enzymes: O-GlcNAc transferase (OGT) and O-GlcNAcase (OGA), which add and remove the modification, respectively. The levels of O-GlcNAc can rapidly change in response to fluctuations in the extracellular environment; however, O-GlcNAcylation returns to a baseline level quickly after stimulus removal. This process termed O-GlcNAc homeostasis appears to be critical to the regulation of many cellular functions including cell cycle progress, stress response, and gene transcription. Disruptions in O-GlcNAc homeostasis are proposed to lead to the development of diseases, such as cancer, diabetes, and Alzheimer's disease. O-GlcNAc homeostasis is correlated with the expression of OGT and OGA. We reason that alterations in O-GlcNAc levels affect OGA and OGT transcription. We treated several human cell lines with Thiamet-G (TMG, an OGA inhibitor) to increase overall O-GlcNAc levels resulting in decreased OGT protein expression and increased OGA protein expression. OGT transcript levels slightly declined with TMG treatment, but OGA transcript levels were significantly increased. Pretreating cells with protein translation inhibitor cycloheximide did not stabilize OGT or OGA protein expression in the presence of TMG; nor did TMG stabilize OGT and OGA mRNA levels when cells were treated with RNA transcription inhibitor actinomycin D. Finally, we performed RNA Polymerase II chromatin immunoprecipitation at the OGA promoter and found that RNA Pol II occupancy at the transcription start site was lower after prolonged TMG treatment. Together, these data suggest that OGA transcription was sensitive to changes in O-GlcNAc homeostasis and was potentially regulated by O-GlcNAc.

  3. Ligand binding and conformational changes of SUR1 subunit in pancreatic ATP-sensitive potassium channels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jing-Xiang; Ding, Dian; Wang, Mengmeng; Kang, Yunlu; Zeng, Xin; Chen, Lei

    2018-06-01

    ATP-sensitive potassium channels (K ATP ) are energy sensors on the plasma membrane. By sensing the intracellular ADP/ATP ratio of β-cells, pancreatic K ATP channels control insulin release and regulate metabolism at the whole body level. They are implicated in many metabolic disorders and diseases and are therefore important drug targets. Here, we present three structures of pancreatic K ATP channels solved by cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM), at resolutions ranging from 4.1 to 4.5 Å. These structures depict the binding site of the antidiabetic drug glibenclamide, indicate how Kir6.2 (inward-rectifying potassium channel 6.2) N-terminus participates in the coupling between the peripheral SUR1 (sulfonylurea receptor 1) subunit and the central Kir6.2 channel, reveal the binding mode of activating nucleotides, and suggest the mechanism of how Mg-ADP binding on nucleotide binding domains (NBDs) drives a conformational change of the SUR1 subunit.

  4. Sensitivity of NTCP parameter values against a change of dose calculation algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brink, Carsten; Berg, Martin; Nielsen, Morten

    2007-01-01

    Optimization of radiation treatment planning requires estimations of the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). A number of models exist that estimate NTCP from a calculated dose distribution. Since different dose calculation algorithms use different approximations the dose distributions predicted for a given treatment will in general depend on the algorithm. The purpose of this work is to test whether the optimal NTCP parameter values change significantly when the dose calculation algorithm is changed. The treatment plans for 17 breast cancer patients have retrospectively been recalculated with a collapsed cone algorithm (CC) to compare the NTCP estimates for radiation pneumonitis with those obtained from the clinically used pencil beam algorithm (PB). For the PB calculations the NTCP parameters were taken from previously published values for three different models. For the CC calculations the parameters were fitted to give the same NTCP as for the PB calculations. This paper demonstrates that significant shifts of the NTCP parameter values are observed for three models, comparable in magnitude to the uncertainties of the published parameter values. Thus, it is important to quote the applied dose calculation algorithm when reporting estimates of NTCP parameters in order to ensure correct use of the models

  5. MR imaging findings of generalized tonic clonic seizure induced brain changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Jeong Ah; Chung, Jin Il; Yonn, Pyeong Ho; Kim, Dong Ik; Chung, Tae Sub; Kim, Joo Hee [College of Medicine, Yonsei Unversity, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2000-03-01

    To evaluate MRI signal changes in the brain induced by generalized tonic clonic seizure. Six patients who underwent MRI within three days of generalized tonic clonic seizure were retrospectively reviewed. Diffusion -weighted images were added in three patients during initial examination, and in six, the follow-up MRI was performed nine days to five months after the onset of seizure. We evaluated the patterns of signal change, location of the lesion and degree of contrast enhancement, and the signal change seen on diffusion weighted images. We also compared the signal changes seen on initial and follow-up MRI. In all six patients, MR images showed focally increased T2 signal intensity, and swelling and increased volume of the involved cortical gyrus. In five, the lesion was mainly located in the cortical gray matter and subcortical white matter; namely, in the bilateral cingulate gyri, and the bilateral parieto-occipital, left parietal, left frontoparietal, and left temporal lobe. In the remaining patient, the lesion was located in the right hippocampus. Two patients showed bilateral lesions and one showed multiple lesions. In four patients, T1-weighted images revealed decreased signal intensity of the same location, and in one, gyral contrast enhancement was noted. On diffusion-weighted images, three patients showed increased signal intensity. Follow-up MRI demonstrated complete resolution of the abnormal signal change (n=3D5), or a decrease (n=3D1). A transient increase in MR signal intensity with increased volume was noted in cortical and subcortical white matter after generalized tonic clonic seizure. This finding reflects the vasogenic and cytotoxic edema induced by seizure and can help exclude etiologic lesions such as tumors, inflammation and demyelinating disease that induce epilepsy. (author)

  6. MR imaging findings of generalized tonic clonic seizure induced brain changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jeong Ah; Chung, Jin Il; Yonn, Pyeong Ho; Kim, Dong Ik; Chung, Tae Sub; Kim, Joo Hee

    2000-01-01

    To evaluate MRI signal changes in the brain induced by generalized tonic clonic seizure. Six patients who underwent MRI within three days of generalized tonic clonic seizure were retrospectively reviewed. Diffusion -weighted images were added in three patients during initial examination, and in six, the follow-up MRI was performed nine days to five months after the onset of seizure. We evaluated the patterns of signal change, location of the lesion and degree of contrast enhancement, and the signal change seen on diffusion weighted images. We also compared the signal changes seen on initial and follow-up MRI. In all six patients, MR images showed focally increased T2 signal intensity, and swelling and increased volume of the involved cortical gyrus. In five, the lesion was mainly located in the cortical gray matter and subcortical white matter; namely, in the bilateral cingulate gyri, and the bilateral parieto-occipital, left parietal, left frontoparietal, and left temporal lobe. In the remaining patient, the lesion was located in the right hippocampus. Two patients showed bilateral lesions and one showed multiple lesions. In four patients, T1-weighted images revealed decreased signal intensity of the same location, and in one, gyral contrast enhancement was noted. On diffusion-weighted images, three patients showed increased signal intensity. Follow-up MRI demonstrated complete resolution of the abnormal signal change (n=3D5), or a decrease (n=3D1). A transient increase in MR signal intensity with increased volume was noted in cortical and subcortical white matter after generalized tonic clonic seizure. This finding reflects the vasogenic and cytotoxic edema induced by seizure and can help exclude etiologic lesions such as tumors, inflammation and demyelinating disease that induce epilepsy. (author)

  7. [Changing to a career in general practice - a qualitative study reveals motives of specialists].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwill, Simon; Magez, Julia; Jäger, Cornelia; von Meißner, Wolfgang Cg; Szecsenyi, Joachim; Flum, Elisabeth

    2016-12-01

    In 2011, the national German Medical Association (Bundesärztekammer) published guidelines for a slim-lined training program in general practice (Quereinstieg) for qualified medical specialists in other fields (e. g., surgeons, internists or anesthesiologists). This step is part of a strategy to prevent further shortages of general practitioners in Germany. In the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg, qualified medical specialists are allowed to complete their general practice training in approximately two years instead of five. The aim of this study was to understand the reasons of specialists for changing to a career in general practice. The postgraduate training program Verbundweiterbildung plus Baden-Württemberg had 597 trainees at the time of the study in December 2015. Previously qualified specialists in another medical discipline were identified and invited to participate in this study. Qualitative data was gathered using semi-structured interviews with content analysis of the interviews performed by three independent members of the research team. In total, 36 out of 597 trainees were identified as previously qualified specialists in another medical discipline. All 36 were invited to take part and 15 agreed to participate in this study. Overall, 15 interviews were performed, with a mean time of 24.19minutes. Participants with a median age of 40 years (33-59 years) - mainly anesthesiologists (n=7), surgeons (n=3) and internists (n=3) - presented with an average of 6.5 years of professional experience in their specialty. First, the participants' motivation to switch career arose from the wish to intensify the quality of patient contacts with a holistic approach including family and social background and from the infinite variety of general practice. Another reason given for a career change was self-employment opportunities. Finally, feelings of frustration over poor working conditions in hospitals resulted in a job search elsewhere in medicine, taking account of

  8. The sensitivity of dimethyl sulfide production to simulated climate change in the Eastern Antarctic Southern Ocean

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gabric, Albert J.; Cropp, Roger; Marchant, Harvey

    2003-01-01

    Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is a radiatively active trace gas produced by enzymatic cleavage of its precursor compound, dimethyl sulfoniopropionate (DMSP), which is released by marine phytoplankton in the upper ocean. Once ventilated to the atmosphere, DMS is oxidised to form non-sea-salt sulfate and methane sulfonate (MSA) aerosols, which are a major source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in remote marine air and may thus play a role in climate regulation. Here we simulate the change in DMS flux in the Eastern Antarctic ocean from 1960-2086, corresponding to equivalent CO 2 tripling relative to pre-industrial levels. Calibration to contemporary climate conditions was carried out using a genetic algorithm to fit the model to surface chlorophyll from the 4-yr SeaWiFs satellite archive and surface DMS from an existing global database. Following the methodology used previously in the Subantarctic Southern Ocean, we then simulated DMS emissions under enhanced greenhouse conditions by forcing the DMS model with output from a coupled atmospheric-ocean general circulation model (GCM). The GCM was run in transient mode under the IPCC/IS92a radiative forcing scenario. By 2086, the change simulated in annual integrated DMS flux is around 20% in ice-free waters, with a greater increase of 45% in the seasonal ice zone (SIZ). Interestingly, the large increase in flux in the SIZ is not due to higher in situ production but mainly because of a loss of ice cover during summer-autumn and an increase in sea-to-air ventilation of DMS. These proportional changes in areal mean flux (25%) are much higher than previously estimated for the Subantarctic Southern Ocean (5%), and point to the possibility of a significant DMS-climate feedback at high Southern latitudes. Due to the nexus between ice cover and food-web structure, the potential for ecological community shifts under enhanced greenhouse conditions is high, and the implications for DMS production are discussed

  9. Economic Value of Narrowing the Uncertainty in Climate Sensitivity: Decadal Change in Shortwave Cloud Radiative Forcing and Low Cloud Feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R. M.; Golub, A. A.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Young, D. F.; Baize, R. R.

    2016-12-01

    Several previous studies have been published on the economic value of narrowing the uncertainty in climate sensitivity (Cooke et al. 2015, Cooke et al. 2016, Hope, 2015). All three of these studies estimated roughly 10 Trillion U.S. dollars for the Net Present Value and Real Option Value at a discount rate of 3%. This discount rate is the nominal discount rate used in the U.S. Social Cost of Carbon Memo (2010). The Cooke et al studies approached this problem by examining advances in accuracy of global temperature measurements, while the Hope 2015 study did not address the type of observations required. While temperature change is related to climate sensitivity, large uncertainties of a factor of 3 in current anthropogenic radiative forcing (IPCC, 2013) would need to be solved for advanced decadal temperature change observations to assist the challenge of narrowing climate sensitivity. The present study takes a new approach by extending the Cooke et al. 2015,2016 papers to replace observations of temperature change to observations of decadal change in the effects of changing clouds on the Earths radiative energy balance, a measurement known as Cloud Radiative Forcing, or Cloud Radiative Effect. Decadal change in this observation is direclty related to the largest uncertainty in climate sensitivity which is cloud feedback from changing amount of low clouds, primarily low clouds over the world's oceans. As a result, decadal changes in shortwave cloud radiative forcing are more directly related to cloud feedback uncertainty which is the dominant uncertainty in climate sensitivity. This paper will show results for the new approach, and allow an examination of the sensitivity of economic value results to different observations used as a constraint on uncertainty in climate sensitivity. The analysis suggests roughly a doubling of economic value to 20 Trillion Net Present Value or Real Option Value at 3% discount rate. The higher economic value results from two changes: a

  10. Enhanced sensitivity of a mountain bog to climate change as a delayed effect of road construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. von Sengbusch

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Trees of Pinus rotundata (bog pine characterise many bogs in the mid-altitude mountains of central Europe (Switzerland, East and South Germany, Czech Republic. The research described here focuses on recent changes in the growth of bog pine on the Ennersbacher Moor, a mountain mire in the Black Forest (south-west Germany. An increase in the cover of bog pine is usually caused by drainage and subsequent drawdown of the water table. However, this bog has not been drained or directly disturbed in any other way. One possible explanation is that a road constructed in 1983 along one margin of the bog has diverted part of its water supply. Even though the road was designed to conduct potentially salt-contaminated drainage water away from the bog, its construction did not cause an immediate vegetation response in the 1980s and 1990s. Therefore, I hypothesise that it enhanced the sensitivity of the bog to climatic stress, predisposing it to a succession that was eventually triggered by a series of drought years in 2009–2011. Data collected near the centre of the bog over the period 1998–2014 indicate not only a distinct change in the relationship between height and trunk circumference of the trees, but also an increase of dwarf shrub cover and changes in the composition of Sphagnum communities. Although the pH of near-surface water may have increased slightly over this period, pH and EC values remain within typical ranges for raised bogs in the Black Forest. Examination of peat profiles reveals that the peat is more highly humified now than it was in 2002, and water table records from 2012–2014 show a greater amplitude of fluctuation than water table data collected in 1998–2001. Even though its mean level is only 105 mm below the ground surface, the water table is now observed to fall rapidly to depths of at least 350 mm during both wet and dry summers. Mapping surface (mesotopography and flow lines from the adjacent slope shows that the

  11. Classifying Multi-Model Wheat Yield Impact Response Surfaces Showing Sensitivity to Temperature and Precipitation Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fronzek, Stefan; Pirttioja, Nina; Carter, Timothy R.; Bindi, Marco; Hoffmann, Holger; Palosuo, Taru; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Tao, Fulu; Trnka, Miroslav; Acutis, Marco; hide

    2017-01-01

    Crop growth simulation models can differ greatly in their treatment of key processes and hence in their response to environmental conditions. Here, we used an ensemble of 26 process-based wheat models applied at sites across a European transect to compare their sensitivity to changes in temperature (minus 2 to plus 9 degrees Centigrade) and precipitation (minus 50 to plus 50 percent). Model results were analysed by plotting them as impact response surfaces (IRSs), classifying the IRS patterns of individual model simulations, describing these classes and analysing factors that may explain the major differences in model responses. The model ensemble was used to simulate yields of winter and spring wheat at four sites in Finland, Germany and Spain. Results were plotted as IRSs that show changes in yields relative to the baseline with respect to temperature and precipitation. IRSs of 30-year means and selected extreme years were classified using two approaches describing their pattern. The expert diagnostic approach (EDA) combines two aspects of IRS patterns: location of the maximum yield (nine classes) and strength of the yield response with respect to climate (four classes), resulting in a total of 36 combined classes defined using criteria pre-specified by experts. The statistical diagnostic approach (SDA) groups IRSs by comparing their pattern and magnitude, without attempting to interpret these features. It applies a hierarchical clustering method, grouping response patterns using a distance metric that combines the spatial correlation and Euclidian distance between IRS pairs. The two approaches were used to investigate whether different patterns of yield response could be related to different properties of the crop models, specifically their genealogy, calibration and process description. Although no single model property across a large model ensemble was found to explain the integrated yield response to temperature and precipitation perturbations, the

  12. Potential Sensitivity of Québec's Breeding Birds to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Luc DesGranges

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available We examined the relationship between climatic factors and the distribution of breeding birds in southern Québec, Canada to identify the species whose distribution renders them potentially sensitive to climate change in the study area. We determined the degree of association between the distribution of 65 breeding bird species (601 presence-absence squares of the Atlas of the Breeding Birds of Québec and climate variables (212 climatological stations in operation for at least 20 years over the period 1953-1984 by statistically correcting for the effects of several factors that are correlated with bird distribution. Factors considered were the nature and scale of land cover patterns that included vegetation types and landscape characterization, geographical coordinates, and elevation. Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA was used to investigate the effect of climatic variables on breeding bird distribution. Independent variables accounted for a total of 29.1% of the variation in the species matrix. A very large portion of the variance explained by climate variables was shared with spatial variables, reflecting the relationships among latitude, longitude, elevation, and climate. After correcting for the effect of land cover variables, climatic variables still explained 11.4% of the variation in the species matrix, with temperature, i.e., warmer summers and milder winters, having a greater influence than precipitation, i.e., wetter summers. Of the 65 species, 14 appeared to be particularly climate-sensitive. Eight are insectivorous neotropical migrants and six species are at the northern limit of their range in the study area. The opposite is largely true for the eight others; they are practically absent from the southern part of the study area, except for the Dark-eyed Junco (Junco hyemalis, which is widespread there. The White-breasted Nuthatch (Sitta carolinensis is the only resident species that seemed responsive to climatic variables, i

  13. General circulation and climate changes in the Mid-European area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schubert, S.; Hupfer, P.

    1992-01-01

    The long-term changes in the frequency distribution of weather patterns ('Grosswetterlage') are closely related to recent climate variations in the investigation area. However, this simple recording of weather pattern frequency changes is not enough for the complete explanation of the climatic changes which took place in our century in central Europe. One of the causes is the large variability of the weather for identical flow directions. In the case of weather situations which are linked to a low cloudiness degree, especially the temperature is strongly dependent on the duration of the 'Grosswetterlage'. Also when viewed from a long-term view, the climatic characteristics of the GWL air masses are by no means constant. If one considers the course of climate elements under identical circulation conditions, it is found that the average weather sometimes varied considerably in the course of the century although the general flow direction was the same. (orig./KW) [de

  14. Haloxyfop mode of action in liquid cultures of proso millet: An analysis of haloxyfop sensitivity changes during growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Irzyk, G.P.

    1989-01-01

    Haloxyfop is a grass-selective herbicide that inhibits acetyl-CoA carboxylase in species that are not tolerant to the herbicide. Liquid cultures of proso millet (Panicum miliaceum) cells treated with haloxyfop at different phases of growth exhibited different levels of sensitivity to the herbicide. Treatment of 1-d cultures with 1 μM haloxyfop completely inhibited growth within 48 h. In contrast, 1 mM haloxyfop was required to elicit a similar response in 4-, 7-, or 10-d cultures. Calculated IC 50 values indicated a 300-fold decrease in haloxyfop sensitivity during the period from 1 to 4 d. This period of growth coincided with the greatest increase in cell number during culture growth and suggested that dividing cells are most sensitive to haloxyfop. Uptake and metabolism of 14 C-haloxyfop in 1-d and 4-d cultures were compared. In both cultures, amounts of radiolabel uptake were similar. Almost all radioactivity extracted from 1- and 4-d cells was present as the parent compound. These results suggested that the sensitivity change was related to other factors. Acetyl-CoA carboxylase activity of proso millet cells, measured in vitro by the acetyl-CoA-dependent incorporation of 14 C-bicarbonate into an acid-stable product, was essentially constant during culture growth. Micromolar concentrations of haloxyfop significantly inhibited acetyl-CoA carboxylase activity from both sensitive and insensitive cultures. Thus, the change in the sensitivity of cultures to haloxyfop was not correlated with changes in acetyl-CoA carboxylase abundance, activity, or sensitivity to haloxyfop during culture growth. In vivo incorporation of 14 C-acetate into lipids was decreased by 1 μM haloxyfop in both 1-d and 4-d cultures at the earliest sampling times but the amount of inhibition was significantly greater in the sensitive cultures

  15. Sleep System Sensitization: Evidence for Changing Roles of Etiological Factors in Insomnia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalmbach, David A.; Pillai, Vivek; Arnedt, J. Todd; Anderson, Jason R.; Drake, Christopher L.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To test for sensitization of the sleep system in response to insomnia development and major life stress. In addition, to evaluate the impact on depression and anxiety associated with sleep system sensitization. Methods A longitudinal study with three annual assessments. The community-based sample included 262 adults with no history of insomnia or depression who developed insomnia 1 year after baseline (67.6% female; 44.0±13.4y). Measures included the Ford Insomnia Response to Stress Test to assess sleep reactivity, Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology, and Beck Anxiety Inventory. Insomnia classification was based on DSM-IV criteria. Sleep system sensitization was operationally defined as significant increases in sleep reactivity. Results Sensitization of the sleep system was observed from baseline to insomnia onset at 1-y follow-up among insomniacs with low premorbid vulnerability (pinsomnia remission (pinsomnia onset. The impact of sensitization on depression was stable at 2-y follow-up (p=.01). Conclusions Evidence supports sensitization of the sleep system as consequence of insomnia development and major life stress among individuals with low premorbid sleep reactivity. Sleep system sensitization may serve as a mechanism by which insomnia is perpetuated. Harmful effects of the sensitization process may increase risk for insomnia-related depression and anxiety. PMID:27448474

  16. Sleep system sensitization: evidence for changing roles of etiological factors in insomnia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalmbach, David A; Pillai, Vivek; Arnedt, J Todd; Anderson, Jason R; Drake, Christopher L

    2016-05-01

    To test for sensitization of the sleep system in response to insomnia development and major life stress. In addition, to evaluate the impact on depression and anxiety associated with sleep system sensitization. A longitudinal study with three annual assessments. The community-based sample included 262 adults with no history of insomnia or depression who developed insomnia one year after baseline (67.6% female; 44.0 ± 13.4 yr). Measures included the Ford Insomnia Response to Stress Test to assess sleep reactivity, Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology, and Beck Anxiety Inventory. Insomnia classification was based on DSM-IV criteria. Sleep system sensitization was operationally defined as significant increases in sleep reactivity. Sensitization of the sleep system was observed from baseline to insomnia onset at 1-yr follow-up among insomniacs with low premorbid vulnerability (p insomnia remission (p insomnia onset. The impact of sensitization on depression was stable at 2-yr follow-up (p = 0.01). Evidence supports sensitization of the sleep system as a consequence of insomnia development and major life stress among individuals with low premorbid sleep reactivity. Sleep system sensitization may serve as a mechanism by which insomnia is perpetuated. Harmful effects of the sensitization process may increase risk for insomnia-related depression and anxiety. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Two rhodamine lactam modulated lysosome-targetable fluorescence probes for sensitively and selectively monitoring subcellular organelle pH change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Hongmei [Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Synthetic and Natural Functional Molecule Chemistry, College of Chemistry & Materials Science, Northwest University, Xi' an 710069 (China); Wang, Cuiling [Key Laboratory of Resource Biology and Biotechnology in Western China, Ministry of Education, College of Life Science, Northwest University, Xi' an 710069 (China); She, Mengyao; Zhu, Yuelu; Zhang, Jidong; Yang, Zheng [Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Synthetic and Natural Functional Molecule Chemistry, College of Chemistry & Materials Science, Northwest University, Xi' an 710069 (China); Liu, Ping, E-mail: liuping@nwu.edu.cn [Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Synthetic and Natural Functional Molecule Chemistry, College of Chemistry & Materials Science, Northwest University, Xi' an 710069 (China); Wang, Yaoyu [Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Synthetic and Natural Functional Molecule Chemistry, College of Chemistry & Materials Science, Northwest University, Xi' an 710069 (China); Li, Jianli, E-mail: lijianli@nwu.edu.cn [Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Synthetic and Natural Functional Molecule Chemistry, College of Chemistry & Materials Science, Northwest University, Xi' an 710069 (China)

    2015-11-05

    Be a powerful technique for convenient detection of pH change in living cells, especially at subcellular level, fluorescent probes has attracted more and more attention. In this work, we designed and synthesized three rhodamine lactam modulated fluorescent probes RS1, RS2 and RS3, which all respond sensitively toward weak acidity (pH range 4–6) via the photophysical property in buffer solution without interference from the other metal ions, and they also show ideal pKa values and excellent reversibility. Particularly, by changing the lone pair electrons distribution of lactam-N atom with different conjugations, RS2 and RS3 exhibit high quantum yield, negligible cytotoxicity and excellent permeability. They are suitable to stain selectively lysosomes of tumor cells and monitor its pH changes sensitively via optical molecular imaging. The above findings suggest that the probes we designed could act as ideal and easy method for investigating the pivotal role of H{sup +} in lysosomes and are potential pH detectors in disease diagnosis through direct intracellular imaging. - Highlights: • Two probes for sensitively and selectively monitoring weak acidic pH change. • The pKa of the probes was highly suitable for staining lysosomes in tumor cells. • The properties of those probes were changed by different conjugate system. • These probes have negligible cytotoxicity and good sensitivity in vivo.

  18. Two rhodamine lactam modulated lysosome-targetable fluorescence probes for sensitively and selectively monitoring subcellular organelle pH change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Hongmei; Wang, Cuiling; She, Mengyao; Zhu, Yuelu; Zhang, Jidong; Yang, Zheng; Liu, Ping; Wang, Yaoyu; Li, Jianli

    2015-01-01

    Be a powerful technique for convenient detection of pH change in living cells, especially at subcellular level, fluorescent probes has attracted more and more attention. In this work, we designed and synthesized three rhodamine lactam modulated fluorescent probes RS1, RS2 and RS3, which all respond sensitively toward weak acidity (pH range 4–6) via the photophysical property in buffer solution without interference from the other metal ions, and they also show ideal pKa values and excellent reversibility. Particularly, by changing the lone pair electrons distribution of lactam-N atom with different conjugations, RS2 and RS3 exhibit high quantum yield, negligible cytotoxicity and excellent permeability. They are suitable to stain selectively lysosomes of tumor cells and monitor its pH changes sensitively via optical molecular imaging. The above findings suggest that the probes we designed could act as ideal and easy method for investigating the pivotal role of H + in lysosomes and are potential pH detectors in disease diagnosis through direct intracellular imaging. - Highlights: • Two probes for sensitively and selectively monitoring weak acidic pH change. • The pKa of the probes was highly suitable for staining lysosomes in tumor cells. • The properties of those probes were changed by different conjugate system. • These probes have negligible cytotoxicity and good sensitivity in vivo.

  19. Update in Outpatient General Internal Medicine: Practice-Changing Evidence Published in 2017.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieland, Mark L; Szostek, Jason H; Wingo, Majken T; Post, Jason A; Mauck, Karen F

    2018-02-26

    Clinicians are challenged to identify new practice-changing articles in the medical literature. To identify the practice-changing articles published in 2017 most relevant to outpatient general internal medicine, 5 internists reviewed the following sources: 1) titles and abstracts from internal medicine journals with the 7 highest impact factors, including New England Journal of Medicine, Lancet, Journal of the American Medical Association, British Medical Journal, Public Library of Science Medicine, Annals of Internal Medicine, and JAMA Internal Medicine; 2) synopses and syntheses of individual studies, including collections in the American College of Physicians Journal Club, Journal Watch, and Evidence-Based Medicine; 3) databases of synthesis, including Evidence Updates and the Cochrane Library. Inclusion criteria were perceived clinical relevance to outpatient general medicine, potential for practice change, and strength of evidence. This process yielded 140 articles. Clusters of important articles around one topic were considered as a single-candidate series. A modified Delphi method was utilized by the 5 authors to reach consensus on 7 topics to highlight and appraise from the 2017 literature. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. The impact of electricity price changes on industrial prices and the general price level in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Seul-Ye; Yoo, Seung-Hoon

    2013-01-01

    Electricity has played an important role in the economic development of Korea and, thus, has become a critical factor in sustaining the well-being of the Korean people. This study attempts to investigate the impact of electricity price changes on industrial prices and the general price level using input–output (I–O) analysis. To this end, we apply the I–O price model to the 2011 I–O table recently produced by the Bank of Korea, paying particular attention to the electricity sector by considering it as exogenous and then investigating its impacts. The impacts of the electricity price changes on each industrial sector's prices and the general price level are quantitatively derived. For example, the overall impact of a 10% increase in electricity price on the Korean national economy is estimated to be 0.4367%. We also report the results from the model with the electricity sector endogenous and the model with endogenous electricity and labor sectors. This information can be usefully utilized in decision-making regarding price management for electricity. - Highlights: • We investigate the impact of electricity price changes on the Korean economy. • We use the input–output (I–O) analysis specifying the electricity sector as exogenous. • We apply the I–O price model to 2010 I–O table produced by the Bank of Korea. • The impact of a 10% increase in electricity price on the Korean economy is 0.2176%

  1. Changes in Attitudes Towards Bariatric Surgery After 5 Years in the German General Public.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Franziska Ulrike Christine Else; Dietrich, A; Stroh, C; Riedel-Heller, S G; Luck-Sikorski, C

    2017-10-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate changes in attitudes of the general public towards bariatric surgery and other interventions that can be part of obesity management, during the last 5 years. 1007 participants were randomly selected and interviewed. Apart from socio-demographic data, interviews also included causal reasons for obesity as well as questions regarding treatment methods and their believed effectiveness. Results were compared with data published 5 years ago. Surgery is seen as a rather ineffective method to reduce weight in obesity and is recommended less often by the general public compared to the assessment 5 years ago. Public health-implications should inform about obesity and benefits of surgery as an intervention to improve individual health conditions.

  2. A generalized theory of sun-climate/weather link and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njau, E.C.

    1988-07-01

    We generalize the theory of Sun-Climate/weather links and climatic change developed earlier by the author. On the basis of this theory, we show mathematically that key climatic/weather parameters are continuously subjected to determinable amplitude modulations and other variations which may be useful in climatic prediction work. A number of new and known terrestrial oscillations in climate and atmospheric behaviour in general, including the known quasi-biennial oscillations and many others, are deduced from the theory and accounted for in terms of their causative physical processes. Finally we briefly discuss the possibility of applying the theory to the planets Mars and Venus as well as Saturn's largest satellite, Titan. (author). 30 refs, 1 fig

  3. David Hull's generalized natural selection as an explanation for scientific change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little, Michelle Yvette

    2001-10-01

    Philosophers of science such as Karl Popper and Thomas Kuhn have employed evolutionary idiom in describing scientific change. In Science as a Process (1988) Hull makes evolutionary theory explanatorily applicable. He modifies key evolutionary terms in order that both biological evolution and scientific change are instances of a general selection process. According to Hull, because of naturally-existing competition for credit among researchers and the professional lineages they constitute, scientists are constrained to cooperate and collaborate. This process entails two important philosophical consequences. First, it allows for a natural justification of why the sciences can provide objective empirical knowledge. Second, appreciating its strength means that a philosophical analysis of scientific change is solidly difficult features to combine. I work on strengthening two weaknesses in Hull's arguments. First, operating in his analysis is an unexplicated notion of ``information'' running parallel to the equally opaque notion of genetic information. My third chapter provides a clear account of ``genetic information'' whose usefulness extends beyond the assistance it can render Hull as a clear concept is needed in biological contexts as well. The fourth and fifth chapters submit evidence of scientific change from radio astronomy. Hull insists on empirical backing for philosophical theses but his own book stands to suffer from selection effects as it offers cases drawn from a single subspecialty in the biological sciences. I found that in the main scientists and the change they propel accords well with Hull's explanation. However, instances of major change reveal credit- and resource-sharing to a degree contrary with what Hull would expect. My conclusion is that the naturalness of competition, instantiated during the course of standardized and relatively ``normal'' scientific research, is not the norm during periods of new research and its uncertain standards of

  4. Skin Sensitive Difference of Human Body Sections under Clothing-Smirnov Test of Skin Surface Temperatures' Dynamic Changing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Jun; WU Hai-yan; WANG Yun-yi

    2004-01-01

    Skin sensitive difference of human body sections under clothing is the theoretic foundation of thermal insulation clothing design.By a new method of researching on clothing comfort perception,the skin temperature live changing procedure of human body sections affected by the same cold stimulation is inspected.Furthermore with the Smirnov test the skin temperatures dynamic changing patterns of main human body sections are obtained.

  5. Sensitivity of temporal heart rate variability in Poincaré plot to changes in parasympathetic nervous system activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karmakar, Chandan K; Khandoker, Ahsan H; Voss, Andreas; Palaniswami, Marimuthu

    2011-03-03

    A novel descriptor (Complex Correlation Measure (CCM)) for measuring the variability in the temporal structure of Poincaré plot has been developed to characterize or distinguish between Poincaré plots with similar shapes. This study was designed to assess the changes in temporal structure of the Poincaré plot using CCM during atropine infusion, 70° head-up tilt and scopolamine administration in healthy human subjects. CCM quantifies the point-to-point variation of the signal rather than gross description of the Poincaré plot. The physiological relevance of CCM was demonstrated by comparing the changes in CCM values with autonomic perturbation during all phases of the experiment. The sensitivities of short term variability (SD1), long term variability (SD2) and variability in temporal structure (CCM) were analyzed by changing the temporal structure by shuffling the sequences of points of the Poincaré plot. Surrogate analysis was used to show CCM as a measure of changes in temporal structure rather than random noise and sensitivity of CCM with changes in parasympathetic activity. CCM was found to be most sensitive to changes in temporal structure of the Poincaré plot as compared to SD1 and SD2. The values of all descriptors decreased with decrease in parasympathetic activity during atropine infusion and 70° head-up tilt phase. In contrast, values of all descriptors increased with increase in parasympathetic activity during scopolamine administration. The concordant reduction and enhancement in CCM values with parasympathetic activity indicates that the temporal variability of Poincaré plot is modulated by the parasympathetic activity which correlates with changes in CCM values. CCM is more sensitive than SD1 and SD2 to changes of parasympathetic activity.

  6. Forecasting hypoxia in the Chesapeake Bay and Gulf of Mexico: model accuracy, precision, and sensitivity to ecosystem change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, Mary Anne; Scavia, Donald

    2011-01-01

    Increasing use of ecological models for management and policy requires robust evaluation of model precision, accuracy, and sensitivity to ecosystem change. We conducted such an evaluation of hypoxia models for the northern Gulf of Mexico and Chesapeake Bay using hindcasts of historical data, comparing several approaches to model calibration. For both systems we find that model sensitivity and precision can be optimized and model accuracy maintained within reasonable bounds by calibrating the model to relatively short, recent 3 year datasets. Model accuracy was higher for Chesapeake Bay than for the Gulf of Mexico, potentially indicating the greater importance of unmodeled processes in the latter system. Retrospective analyses demonstrate both directional and variable changes in sensitivity of hypoxia to nutrient loads.

  7. Is the metaphor of 'barriers to change' useful in understanding implementation? Evidence from general medical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Checkland, Kath; Harrison, Stephen; Marshall, Martin

    2007-04-01

    To investigate how general medical practices in the UK react to bureaucratic initiatives, such as National Health Service (NHS) National Service Frameworks (NSFs), and to explore the value of the metaphor of 'barriers to change' for understanding this. Interviews, non-participant observation and documentary analysis within case studies of four practices in northern England. The practices had not actively implemented NSFs. At interview, various 'barriers' that had prevented implementation were listed, including the complexity of the documents and lack of time. Observation suggested that these barriers were constructions used by the participants to make sense of the situation in which they found themselves. The metaphor of 'removing barriers to change' was of limited use in a context where non-implementation of policy was an emergent property of underlying organizational realities, likely to be modifiable only if these realities were addressed.

  8. Changes in the prostacyctin sensitivity of thrombocytes after intravaginal radium irradiation of patients with corpus carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, A.

    1987-01-01

    The goal of this work was to investigate, to what extent the platelet sensitivity in comparison to prostacyclin (PGI 2 ) should be seen as a responsible factor in the increase of the thrombosis rate. For this blood was examined from 22 patients with corpus carcinoma who had received an intravaginal Radium implant with a radiation dose of 960 mgeh to over 24 h. These patients were compared to a control group of 21 clinically healthy women. Even before the radiation therapy there was an increased aggregation rate of the thrombocytes in the carcinoma patients as well as a reduced sensitivity to PGI 2 . Under irradiation there was an even greater decrease in the sensitivity of the thrombocytes to PGI 2 . The aggregation speed increase statistically significantly and the number of thrombocytes decreased during the Radium irradiation. After the giving of heparin the sensitivity of the thrombocytes to PGI 2 sank strongly. (orig./MG) [de

  9. Study of sensitivity change of OSL signals from quartz and feldspars as a function of preheat temperature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jungner, H.; Bøtter-Jensen, L.

    1994-01-01

    and as a result, the equivalent dose (ED) would be underestimated. A study of sensitivity changes in feldspars and quartz was carried out with emphasis on the effect of preheat and annealing on the OSL signal. Measurement results obtained are presented, and possible elimination of errors in dating caused...

  10. Reliability and sensitivity to change of the OMERACT rheumatoid arthritis magnetic resonance imaging score in a multireader, longitudinal setting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haavardsholm, ea; Østergaard, Mikkel; Kvan, NP

    2005-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the intra- and interreader reliability and the sensitivity to change of the Outcome Measures in Rheumatology Clinical Trials (OMERACT) Rheumatoid Arthritis Magnetic Resonance Imaging Score (RAMRIS) system on digital images of the wrist joints of patients with early or establi...

  11. A generalized formulation for noise-based seismic velocity change measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-García, C.; Brenguier, F.; Boué, P.; Shapiro, N.; Droznin, D.; Droznina, S.; Senyukov, S.; Gordeev, E.

    2017-12-01

    The observation of continuous seismic velocity changes is a powerful tool for detecting seasonal variations in crustal structure, volcanic unrest, co- and post-seismic evolution of stress in fault areas or the effects of fluid injection. The standard approach for measuring such velocity changes relies on comparison of travel times in the coda of a set of seismic signals, usually noise-based cross-correlations retrieved at different dates, and a reference trace, usually a averaged function over dates. A good stability in both space and time of the noise sources is then the main assumption for reliable measurements. Unfortunately, these conditions are often not fulfilled, as it happens when ambient-noise sources are non-stationary, such as the emissions of low-frequency volcanic tremors.We propose a generalized formulation for retrieving continuous time series of noise-based seismic velocity changes without any arbitrary reference cross-correlation function. We set up a general framework for future applications of this technique performing synthetic tests. In particular, we study the reliability of the retrieved velocity changes in case of seasonal-type trends, transient effects (similar to those produced as a result of an earthquake or a volcanic eruption) and sudden velocity drops and recoveries as the effects of transient local source emissions. Finally, we apply this approach to a real dataset of noise cross-correlations. We choose the Klyuchevskoy volcanic group (Kamchatka) as a case study where the recorded wavefield is hampered by loss of data and dominated by strongly localized volcanic tremor sources. Despite the mentioned wavefield contaminations, we retrieve clear seismic velocity drops associated with the eruptions of the Klyuchevskoy an the Tolbachik volcanoes in 2010 and 2012, respectively.

  12. Reliability and sensitivity to change of the OMERACT rheumatoid arthritis magnetic resonance imaging score in a multireader, longitudinal setting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haavardsholm, ea; Østergaard, Mikkel; Kvan, NP

    2005-01-01

    , erosion, and bone marrow edema status and for change scores. RESULTS: Intrareader ICCs were generally very high, both for status scores (median baseline and followup 0.89 and 0.90 for synovitis, 0.91 and 0.90 for erosion, and 0.90 and 0.98 for edema) and for change scores (median 0.80 for synovitis, 0...

  13. Green shoots of recovery: a realist evaluation of a team to support change in general practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlett, Maggie; Basten, Ruth; McKinley, Robert K

    2017-02-08

    A multidisciplinary support team for general practice was established in April 2014 by a local National Health Service (NHS) England management team. This work evaluates the team's effectiveness in supporting and promoting change in its first 2 years, using realist methodology. Primary care in one area of England. Semistructured interviews were conducted with staff from 14 practices, 3 key senior NHS England personnel and 5 members of the support team. Sampling of practice staff was purposive to include representatives from relevant professional groups. The team worked with practices to identify areas for change, construct action plans and implement them. While there was no specified timescale for the team's work with practices, it was tailored to each. In realist evaluations, outcomes are contingent on mechanisms acting in contexts, and both an understanding of how an intervention leads to change in a socially constructed system and the resultant changes are outcomes. The principal positive mechanisms leading to change were the support team's expertise and its relationships with practice staff. The 'external view' provided by the team via its corroborative and normalising effects was an important mechanism for increasing morale in some practice contexts. A powerful negative mechanism was related to perceptions of 'being seen as a failing practice' which included expressions of 'shame'. Outcomes for practices as perceived by their staff were better communication, improvements in patients' access to appointments resulting from better clinical and managerial skill mix, and improvements in workload management. The support team promoted change within practices leading to signs of the 'green shoots of recovery' within the time frame of the evaluation. Such interventions need to be tailored and responsive to practices' needs. The team's expertise and relationships between team members and practice staff are central to success. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group

  14. Reliability, validity, and sensitivity to change of the lower extremity functional scale in individuals affected by stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verheijde, Joseph L; White, Fred; Tompkins, James; Dahl, Peder; Hentz, Joseph G; Lebec, Michael T; Cornwall, Mark

    2013-12-01

    To investigate reliability, validity, and sensitivity to change of the Lower Extremity Functional Scale (LEFS) in individuals affected by stroke. The secondary objective was to test the validity and sensitivity of a single-item linear analog scale (LAS) of function. Prospective cohort reliability and validation study. A single rehabilitation department in an academic medical center. Forty-three individuals receiving neurorehabilitation for lower extremity dysfunction after stroke were studied. Their ages ranged from 32 to 95 years, with a mean of 70 years; 77% were men. Test-retest reliability was assessed by calculating the classical intraclass correlation coefficient, and the Bland-Altman limits of agreement. Validity was assessed by calculating the Pearson correlation coefficient between the instruments. Sensitivity to change was assessed by comparing baseline scores with end of treatment scores. Measurements were taken at baseline, after 1-3 days, and at 4 and 8 weeks. The LEFS, Short-Form-36 Physical Function Scale, Berg Balance Scale, Six-Minute Walk Test, Five-Meter Walk Test, Timed Up-and-Go test, and the LAS of function were used. The test-retest reliability of the LEFS was found to be excellent (ICC = 0.96). Correlated with the 6 other measures of function studied, the validity of the LEFS was found to be moderate to high (r = 0.40-0.71). Regarding the sensitivity to change, the mean LEFS scores from baseline to study end increased 1.2 SD and for LAS 1.1 SD. LEFS exhibits good reliability, validity, and sensitivity to change in patients with lower extremity impairments secondary to stroke. Therefore, the LEFS can be a clinically efficient outcome measure in the rehabilitation of patients with subacute stroke. The LAS is shown to be a time-saving and reasonable option to track changes in a patient's functional status. Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. EEG slow-wave coherence changes in propofol-induced general anesthesia: Experiment and theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaier eWang

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The electroencephalogram (EEG patterns recorded during general anesthetic-induced coma are closely similar to those seen during slow-wave sleep, the deepest stage of natural sleep; both states show patterns dominated by large amplitude slow waves. Slow oscillations are believed to be important for memory consolidation during natural sleep. Tracking the emergence of slow-wave oscillations during transition to unconsciousness may help us to identify drug-induced alterations of the underlying brain state, and provide insight into the mechanisms of general anesthesia. Although cellular-based mechanisms have been proposed, the origin of the slow oscillation has not yet been unambiguously established. A recent theoretical study by Steyn-Ross et al. [Physical Review X 3(2, 021005 (2013] proposes that the slow oscillation is a network, rather than cellular phenomenon. Modeling anesthesia as a moderate reduction in gap-junction interneuronal coupling, they predict an unconscious state signposted by emergent low-frequency oscillations with chaotic dynamics in space and time. They suggest that anesthetic slow-waves arise from a competitive interaction between symmetry-breaking instabilities in space (Turing and time (Hopf, modulated by gap-junction coupling strength. A significant prediction of their model is that EEG phase coherence will decrease as the cortex transits from Turing--Hopf balance (wake to Hopf-dominated chaotic slow-waves (unconsciousness. Here, we investigate changes in phase coherence during induction of general anesthesia. After examining 128-channel EEG traces recorded from five volunteers undergoing propofol anesthesia, we report a significant drop in sub-delta band (0.05--1.5 Hz slow-wave coherence between frontal, occipital, and frontal-occipital electrode pairs, with the most pronounced wake-versus-unconscious coherence changes occurring at the frontal cortex.

  16. Carboxyhemoglobin changes in relation to inspired oxygen fraction during general anesthesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gavrilovska-Brzanov Aleksandra

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Measurement of carboxyhemoglobin could be a new method for evaluation of the severity of inflammatory airway disease, acute organ dysfunction, or stress by surgery and anesthesia. To use this measurement during mechanical ventilation, it is important to clarify the effects of factors that interfere with carboxy- hemoglobin levels. The aim of our study was to investigate the preoperative changes of carboxyhemoglobin to inspired oxygen fraction during general anesthesia and mechanical ventilation. Our second aim was to evaluate the effect of preoxygenation on the level of carboxyhemo- globin. Methods: The study included 30 patients scheduled for urologic surgery under general endotracheal anesthesia, aged 18-60 years, divided into two groups. The study group comprised patients who were smoking cigarettes or tobacco pipe, while the control group included non-smokers. In both groups carboxyhemoglobin levels were determined preoperatively, after preoxygenation, and one hour after induction in anesthesia. Results: carboxyhemoglobin levels were decreased after preoxygenation in both groups. One hour after induction in anesthesia under mechanical ventilation with inhaled fraction of a mixture of O2 (50% and air (50% the average values of carboxyhemoglobin between the two groups were different. The average values of carboxyhemoglobin between the two groups in all three time points were statistically significantly different (p=0.00. Conclusion: Changes in carboxyhemoglobin concentrations in arterial blood occur during general anesthesia and mechanical ventilation, although these amplitudes are small when compared to carbon monoxide intoxication. It is likely that organ perfusion and functions are affected by these monoxide gas mediators during surgery.

  17. Final Technical Report: "Representing Endogenous Technological Change in Climate Policy Models: General Equilibrium Approaches"

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ian Sue Wing

    2006-04-18

    The research supported by this award pursued three lines of inquiry: (1) The construction of dynamic general equilibrium models to simulate the accumulation and substitution of knowledge, which has resulted in the preparation and submission of several papers: (a) A submitted pedagogic paper which clarifies the structure and operation of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models (C.2), and a review article in press which develops a taxonomy for understanding the representation of technical change in economic and engineering models for climate policy analysis (B.3). (b) A paper which models knowledge directly as a homogeneous factor, and demonstrates that inter-sectoral reallocation of knowledge is the key margin of adjustment which enables induced technical change to lower the costs of climate policy (C.1). (c) An empirical paper which estimates the contribution of embodied knowledge to aggregate energy intensity in the U.S. (C.3), followed by a companion article which embeds these results within a CGE model to understand the degree to which autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) is attributable to technical change as opposed to sub-sectoral shifts in industrial composition (C.4) (d) Finally, ongoing theoretical work to characterize the precursors and implications of the response of innovation to emission limits (E.2). (2) Data development and simulation modeling to understand how the characteristics of discrete energy supply technologies determine their succession in response to emission limits when they are embedded within a general equilibrium framework. This work has produced two peer-reviewed articles which are currently in press (B.1 and B.2). (3) Empirical investigation of trade as an avenue for the transmission of technological change to developing countries, and its implications for leakage, which has resulted in an econometric study which is being revised for submission to a journal (E.1). As work commenced on this topic, the U.S. withdrawal

  18. Sensitivity of decomposition rates of soil organic matter with respect to simultaneous changes in temperature and moisture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sierra, Carlos A.; Trumbore, Susan E.; Davidson, Eric A.; Vicca, Sara; Janssens, I.

    2015-03-01

    The sensitivity of soil organic matter decomposition to global environmental change is a topic of prominent relevance for the global carbon cycle. Decomposition depends on multiple factors that are being altered simultaneously as a result of global environmental change; therefore, it is important to study the sensitivity of the rates of soil organic matter decomposition with respect to multiple and interacting drivers. In this manuscript, we present an analysis of the potential response of decomposition rates to simultaneous changes in temperature and moisture. To address this problem, we first present a theoretical framework to study the sensitivity of soil organic matter decomposition when multiple driving factors change simultaneously. We then apply this framework to models and data at different levels of abstraction: (1) to a mechanistic model that addresses the limitation of enzyme activity by simultaneous effects of temperature and soil water content, the latter controlling substrate supply and oxygen concentration for microbial activity; (2) to different mathematical functions used to represent temperature and moisture effects on decomposition in biogeochemical models. To contrast model predictions at these two levels of organization, we compiled different data sets of observed responses in field and laboratory studies. Then we applied our conceptual framework to: (3) observations of heterotrophic respiration at the ecosystem level; (4) laboratory experiments looking at the response of heterotrophic respiration to independent changes in moisture and temperature; and (5) ecosystem-level experiments manipulating soil temperature and water content simultaneously.

  19. Reliability, validity and sensitivity to change of neurogenic bowel dysfunction score in patients with spinal cord injury

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erdem, D.; Hava, D.; Keskinoglu, P.

    2017-01-01

    cord injury (SCI). The reliability of NBD score was assessed by test-retest reliability and internal consistency. Cronbach's alpha coefficient was calculated to determine internal consistency. The construct validity was evaluated by exploring correlations between the NBD score and SF-36 scales, patient...... assessment of impact of NBD on quality of life (QoL) and the physician global assessment (PGA). The Global Rating of Change (GRC) scale was used to assess the change of NBD to investigate the sensitivity of the score to change. Results: Cronbach's alpha coefficient was 0.547. In test-retest reliability...

  20. Direct Aggression and Generalized Anxiety in Adolescence: Heterogeneity in Development and Intra-Individual Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meeus, Wim; Van de Schoot, Rens; Hawk, Skyler T; Hale, William W; Branje, Susan

    2016-02-01

    Co-occurrence of aggression and anxiety might change during adolescence, or stay stable. We studied change and stability of four types of co-occurrence regarding direct aggression and anxiety in adolescence: an anxious and non-aggressive type, an aggressive and non-anxious type, a comorbid aggressive-anxious type and a no problems type. We applied a person-centered approach to assess increases and decreases of these types, and tested various models of intra-individual change of the types: the stability, acting out and failure models. We used data from a five-wave study of 923 early-to-middle and 390 middle-to-late adolescents (48.5 % male), thereby covering the ages of 12-20. We observed accelerated development in the older cohort: adolescents tended to grow faster out of the aggressive types in middle-to-late adolescence than in early-to-middle adolescence. We observed one other group-dependent pattern of heterogeneity in development, namely "gender differentiation": gender differences in aggression and generalized anxiety became stronger over time. We found support for two perspectives on intra-individual change of the four types, namely the stability and the acting out perspective. The no problems--and to a lesser extent the anxious--type proved to be stable across time. Acting out was found in early-to-middle adolescents, males, and adolescents with poorer-quality friendships. In all three groups, there were substantial transitions from the anxious type to the aggressive type during 4 years (between 20 and 41 %). Remarkably, acting out was most prevalent in subgroups that, generally speaking, are more vulnerable for aggressive behavior, namely early-to-middle adolescents and males. We interpret acting out as the attempt of adolescents to switch from anxiety to instrumental aggression, in order to become more visible and obtain an autonomous position in the adolescent world. Acting out contributed to the explanation of accelerated development and gender

  1. Update in Outpatient General Internal Medicine: Practice-Changing Evidence Published in 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szostek, Jason H; Wieland, Mark L; Post, Jason A; Sundsted, Karna K; Mauck, Karen F

    2016-08-01

    Identifying new practice-changing articles is challenging. To determine the 2015 practice-changing articles most relevant to outpatient general internal medicine, 3 internists independently reviewed the titles and abstracts of original articles, synopses of single studies and syntheses, and databases of syntheses. For original articles, internal medicine journals with the 7 highest impact factors were reviewed: New England Journal of Medicine, Lancet, Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), British Medical Journal, Public Library of Science Medicine, Annals of Internal Medicine, and JAMA Internal Medicine. For synopses of single studies and syntheses, collections in American College of Physicians Journal Club, Journal Watch, and Evidence-Based Medicine were reviewed. For databases of synthesis, Evidence Updates and the Cochrane Library were reviewed. More than 100 articles were identified. Criteria for inclusion were as follows: clinical relevance, potential for practice change, and strength of evidence. Clusters of important articles around one topic were considered as a single-candidate series. The 5 authors used a modified Delphi method to reach consensus on inclusion of 7 topics for in-depth appraisal. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. A Global Assessment of Runoff Sensitivity to Changes in Precipitation, Potential Evaporation, and Other Factors

    OpenAIRE

    Berghuijs, Wouter; Larsen, Joshua; van Emmerik, Tim; Woods, Ross

    2017-01-01

    Precipitation (P) and potential evaporation (Ep) are commonly studied drivers of changing freshwater availability, as aridity (Ep/P) explains ∼90% of the spatial differences in mean runoff across the globe. However, it is unclear if changes in aridity over time are also the most important cause for temporal changes in mean runoff and how this degree of importance varies regionally. We show that previous global assessments that address these questions do not properly account for changes due to...

  3. Stochastic sensitivity analysis of nitrogen pollution to climate change in a river basin with complex pollution sources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaoying; Tan, Lit; He, Ruimin; Fu, Guangtao; Ye, Jinyin; Liu, Qun; Wang, Guoqing

    2017-12-01

    It is increasingly recognized that climate change could impose both direct and indirect impacts on the quality of the water environment. Previous studies have mostly concentrated on evaluating the impacts of climate change on non-point source pollution in agricultural watersheds. Few studies have assessed the impacts of climate change on the water quality of river basins with complex point and non-point pollution sources. In view of the gap, this paper aims to establish a framework for stochastic assessment of the sensitivity of water quality to future climate change in a river basin with complex pollution sources. A sub-daily soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was developed to simulate the discharge, transport, and transformation of nitrogen from multiple point and non-point pollution sources in the upper Huai River basin of China. A weather generator was used to produce 50 years of synthetic daily weather data series for all 25 combinations of precipitation (changes by - 10, 0, 10, 20, and 30%) and temperature change (increases by 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 °C) scenarios. The generated daily rainfall series was disaggregated into the hourly scale and then used to drive the sub-daily SWAT model to simulate the nitrogen cycle under different climate change scenarios. Our results in the study region have indicated that (1) both total nitrogen (TN) loads and concentrations are insensitive to temperature change; (2) TN loads are highly sensitive to precipitation change, while TN concentrations are moderately sensitive; (3) the impacts of climate change on TN concentrations are more spatiotemporally variable than its impacts on TN loads; and (4) wide distributions of TN loads and TN concentrations under individual climate change scenario illustrate the important role of climatic variability in affecting water quality conditions. In summary, the large variability in SWAT simulation results within and between each climate change scenario highlights the uncertainty of

  4. Pulmonary Circulation Transvascular Fluid Fluxes Do Not Change during General Anesthesia in Dogs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga Frlic

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available General anesthesia (GA can cause abnormal lung fluid redistribution. Pulmonary circulation transvascular fluid fluxes (JVA are attributed to changes in hydrostatic forces and erythrocyte volume (EV regulation. Despite the very low hydraulic conductance of pulmonary microvasculature it is possible that GA may affect hydrostatic forces through changes in pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR, and EV through alteration of erythrocyte transmembrane ion fluxes (ionJVA. Furosemide (Fur was also used because of its potential to affect pulmonary hydrostatic forces and ionJVA. A hypothesis was tested that JVA, with or without furosemide treatment, will not change with time during GA. Twenty dogs that underwent castration/ovariectomy were randomly assigned to Fur (n = 10 (4 mg/kg IV or placebo treated group (Con, n = 10. Baseline arterial (BL and mixed venous blood were sampled during GA just before treatment with Fur or placebo and then at 15, 30 and 45 min post-treatment. Cardiac output (Q and pulmonary artery pressure (PAP were measured. JVA and ionJVA were calculated from changes in plasma protein, hemoglobin, hematocrit, plasma and whole blood ions, and Q. Variables were analyzed using random intercept mixed model (P < 0.05. Data are expressed as means ± SE. Furosemide caused a significant volume depletion as evident from changes in plasma protein and hematocrit (P < 0.001. However; Q, PAP, and JVA were not affected by time or Fur, whereas erythrocyte fluid flux was affected by Fur (P = 0.03. Furosemide also affected erythrocyte transmembrane K+ and Cl−, and transvascular Cl− metabolism (P ≤ 0.05. No other erythrocyte transmembrane or transvascular ion fluxes were affected by time of GA or Fur. Our hypothesis was verified as JVA was not affected by GA or ion metabolism changes due to Fur treatment. Furosemide and 45 min of GA did not cause significant hydrostatic changes based on Q and PAP. Inhibition of Na+/K+/2Cl− cotransport caused by Fur

  5. How sensitive are nanosecond molecular dynamics simulations of proteins to changes in the force field?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Villa, Alessandra; Fan, Hao; Wassenaar, Tsjerk; Mark, Alan E.

    2007-01-01

    The sensitivity of molecular dynamics simulations to variations in the force field has been examined in relation to a set of 36 structures corresponding to 31 proteins simulated by using different versions of the GROMOS force field. The three parameter sets used (43a1, 53a5, and 53a6) differ

  6. Sensitivity of vertical jumping performance to changes in muscle stimulation onset times: a simulation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bobbert, M.F.; van Zandwijk, J.P.

    1999-01-01

    The effect of muscle stimulation dynamics on the sensitivity of jumping achievement to variations in timing of muscle stimulation onsets was investigated. Vertical squat jumps were simulated using a forward dynamic model of the human musculoskeletal system. The model calculates the motion of body

  7. Determining pancreatic β-cell compensation for changing insulin sensitivity using an oral glucose tolerance test

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Solomon, Thomas; Malin, Steven K; Karstoft, Kristian

    2014-01-01

    Plasma glucose, insulin, and C-peptide responses during an OGTT are informative for both research and clinical practice in type 2 diabetes. The aim of this study was to use such information to determine insulin sensitivity and insulin secretion so as to calculate an oral glucose disposition index...

  8. Living Contradictions and Working for Change: Toward a Theory of Social Class-Sensitive Pedagogy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Stephanie; Vagle, Mark D.

    2013-01-01

    This essay describes a vision of social class-sensitive pedagogy aimed at disrupting endemic classism in schools. We argue persistent upward mobility discourses construct classist hierarchies in schools and classroom practice and are founded on misunderstandings of work, lived experiences of social class, and the broader social and economic…

  9. Small-Angle Neutron Scattering Study of Structural Changes in Temperature-Sensitive Microgel Colloids

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stieger, M.A.; Richtering, W.; Pedersen, J.S.; Lindner, P.

    2004-01-01

    The structure of temperature-sensitive poly(N-isopropylacrylamide) microgels in dilute suspension was investigated by means of small-angle neutron scattering. A direct modeling expression for the scattering intensity distribution was derived which describes very well the experimental data at all

  10. Polarization sensitive changes in the human macula associated with normal aging and age-related macular degeneration

    Science.gov (United States)

    VanNasdale, Dean Allan, Jr.

    2011-12-01

    The human macula occupies a relatively small, but crucial retinal area, as it is the location responsible for our most acute spatial vision and best color discrimination. Localizing important landmarks in the retina is difficult even in normal eyes where morphological inter-individual variability is high. This becomes even more challenging in the presence of sight-threatening pathology. With respect to the human macula, there remains a significant gap in the understanding of normal structure and function. Even less is known about the pathological mechanisms that occur in sight-threatening diseases including age-related macular degeneration. Because relatively little is known about normal aging changes, it is also difficult to differentiate those changes from changes associated with retinal disease. To better understand normal and pathological changes in the macula, imaging techniques using specific optical signatures are required. Structural features in the macula can be distinguished based on their intrinsic properties using specific light/tissue interactions. Because of the high degree of structural regularity in the macula, polarization sensitive imaging is potentially a useful tool for evaluating the morphology and integrity of the cellular architecture for both normal individuals and those affected by disease. In our investigations, we used polarization sensitive imaging to determining normal landmarks that are important clinically and for research investigations. We found that precision and accuracy in localizing the central macula was greatly improved through the use of polarization sensitive imaging. We also found that specific polarization alterations can be used to demonstrate systematic changes as a function of age, disproportionately affecting the central macular region. When evaluating patients with age-related macular degeneration, we found that precision and accuracy of localizing the central macula was also improved, even when significant pathology

  11. Forest Policy Scenario Analysis: Sensitivity of Songbird Community to Changes in Forest Cover Amount and Configuration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert S. Rempel

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Changes in mature forest cover amount, composition, and configuration can be of significant consequence to wildlife populations. The response of wildlife to forest patterns is of concern to forest managers because it lies at the heart of such competing approaches to forest planning as aggregated vs. dispersed harvest block layouts. In this study, we developed a species assessment framework to evaluate the outcomes of forest management scenarios on biodiversity conservation objectives. Scenarios were assessed in the context of a broad range of forest structures and patterns that would be expected to occur under natural disturbance and succession processes. Spatial habitat models were used to predict the effects of varying degrees of mature forest cover amount, composition, and configuration on habitat occupancy for a set of 13 focal songbird species. We used a spatially explicit harvest scheduling program to model forest management options and simulate future forest conditions resulting from alternative forest management scenarios, and used a process-based fire-simulation model to simulate future forest conditions resulting from natural wildfire disturbance. Spatial pattern signatures were derived for both habitat occupancy and forest conditions, and these were placed in the context of the simulated range of natural variation. Strategic policy analyses were set in the context of current Ontario forest management policies. This included use of sequential time-restricted harvest blocks (created for Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus conservation and delayed harvest areas (created for American marten (Martes americana atrata conservation. This approach increased the realism of the analysis, but reduced the generality of interpretations. We found that forest management options that create linear strips of old forest deviate the most from simulated natural patterns, and had the greatest negative effects on habitat occupancy, whereas policy options

  12. Variations in the Sensitivity of Shrub Growth to Climate Change along Arctic Environmental and Biotic Gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, P. S. A.; Myers-Smith, I. H.; Elmendorf, S.; Georges, D.

    2015-12-01

    Despite evidence of rapid shrub expansion at many Arctic sites and the profound effects this has on ecosystem structure, biogeochemical cycling, and land-atmosphere feedbacks in the Arctic, the drivers of shrub growth remain poorly understood. The compilation of 41,576 annual shrub growth measurements made around the Arctic, allowed for the first systematic evaluation of the climate sensitivity of Arctic shrub growth, i.e. the strength of the relationship between annual shrub growth and monthly climate variables. The growth measurements were taken on 1821 plants of 25 species at 37 arctic and alpine sites, either as annual ring widths or as stem increments. We evaluated climate sensitivity of shrub growth for each genus-by-site combination in this data set based on the performance and parameters of linear mixed models that used CRU TS3.21 climate data as predictors of shrub growth between 1950 and 2010. 76% of genus-by-site combinations showed climate sensitive growth, but climate-growth relationships varied with soil moisture, species canopy height, and geographic position within the species ranges. Shrubs growing at sites with more soil moisture showed greater climate sensitivity, suggesting that water availability might limit shrub growth if continued warming isn't matched by a steady increase in soil moisture. Tall shrub species growing at their northern range limit were particularly climate sensitive causing climate sensitivity of shrubs to peak at the transition between Low and High Arctic, where carbon storage in permafrost is greatest. Local and regional studies have documented matching spatial and temporal patterns in dendrochronological measurements and satellite observations of vegetation indices both in boreal and Arctic regions. Yet the circumarctic comparison of patterns in dendrochronological and remote sensing data sets yielded poor levels of agreement. In much of the Arctic, steep environmental gradients generate fine spatial patterns of vegetation

  13. Sensitivity analysis of a sediment dynamics model applied in a Mediterranean river basin: global change and management implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Canales, M; López-Benito, A; Acuña, V; Ziv, G; Hamel, P; Chaplin-Kramer, R; Elorza, F J

    2015-01-01

    Climate change and land-use change are major factors influencing sediment dynamics. Models can be used to better understand sediment production and retention by the landscape, although their interpretation is limited by large uncertainties, including model parameter uncertainties. The uncertainties related to parameter selection may be significant and need to be quantified to improve model interpretation for watershed management. In this study, we performed a sensitivity analysis of the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs) sediment retention model in order to determine which model parameters had the greatest influence on model outputs, and therefore require special attention during calibration. The estimation of the sediment loads in this model is based on the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). The sensitivity analysis was performed in the Llobregat basin (NE Iberian Peninsula) for exported and retained sediment, which support two different ecosystem service benefits (avoided reservoir sedimentation and improved water quality). Our analysis identified the model parameters related to the natural environment as the most influential for sediment export and retention. Accordingly, small changes in variables such as the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events could cause major changes in sediment dynamics, demonstrating the sensitivity of these dynamics to climate change in Mediterranean basins. Parameters directly related to human activities and decisions (such as cover management factor, C) were also influential, especially for sediment exported. The importance of these human-related parameters in the sediment export process suggests that mitigation measures have the potential to at least partially ameliorate climate-change driven changes in sediment exportation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. The association between changes in pressure pain sensitivity and changes in cardiovascular physiological factors associated with persistent stress

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ballegaard, Søren; Petersen, Pernille B.; Harboe, Gitte S.

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Objectives. To evaluate the possible association between pressure pain sensitivity of the chest bone (PPS) and cardiovascular physiological factors related to persistent stress in connection with a three-month PPS-guided stress-reducing experimental intervention programme. Methods. Forty......-two office workers with an elevated PPS (≥ 60 arbitrary units) as a sign of increased level of persistent stress, completed a single-blinded cluster randomized controlled trial. The active treatment was a PPS (self-measurement)-guided stress management programme. Primary endpoints: Blood pressure (BP), heart...... between-group reductions were observed in respect to BP, HR, PRP, total and LDL cholesterol, and total number of elevated risk factors (p stress intervention method applied in this study induced a decrease in PPS which was associated with a clinically relevant decrease in resting...

  15. Changes in disability in older adults with generalized radiographic osteoarthritis: A complex relationship with physical activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tak, E C P M; van Meurs, J B; Bierma-Zeinstra, S M A; Hofman, A; Hopman-Rock, M

    2017-12-01

    The aim of the present study was to report on factors associated with changes in disability after 5 years, with a focus on physical activity (PA) in community-dwelling older adults with generalized radiographic osteoarthritis (GROA). Assessment of GROA (hand, knee, hip) and disability (Health Assessment Questionnaire) in the Rotterdam Study (cohort RS-1, N = 7,983; with GROA, n = 821). A good outcome at follow-up was defined as improved or mild disability, and a poor outcome as worsened or severe disability. Factors potentially associated with outcome were demographics, joint complaints, other chronic health problems or limitations (body mass index, number of chronic conditions, cognition), and level of different types of PA. Some of these assessments were repeated in between 1997 and 1999 (RS-3), and between 2002 and 2004 (RS-4). A total of 309 older adults with GROA and valid measures on RS-3 and RS-4 showed mild to moderate disability, with minor increases over 5 years (follow-up N = 287 RS-3 to RS-4). PA levels decreased with increasing disability, especially in sport and walking. PA was univariately associated with a better outcome at follow-up but when adjusted for other factors (higher age, having knee pain and stiffness, and having more than two other chronic conditions) was associated with negative changes in general and lower limb disability, although not with upper limb disability. This was the first study to report that community-dwelling older adults with GROA show moderate levels of disability, and that reduced levels of disability are associated with higher levels of PA, but when adjusted for other confounders this association is lost. Further research is needed to study the complex relationships between PA and other determinants of disability. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Toward Estimating Wetland Water Level Changes Based on Hydrological Sensitivity Analysis of PALSAR Backscattering Coefficients over Different Vegetation Fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ting Yuan

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR has been successfully used to map wetland’s inundation extents and types of vegetation based on the fact that the SAR backscatter signal from the wetland is mainly controlled by the wetland vegetation type and water level changes. This study describes the relation between L-band PALSAR  and seasonal water level changes obtained from Envisat altimetry over the island of Île Mbamou in the Congo Basin where two distinctly different vegetation types are found. We found positive correlations between and water level changes over the forested southern Île Mbamou whereas both positive and negative correlations were observed over the non-forested northern Île Mbamou depending on the amount of water level increase. Based on the analysis of sensitivity, we found that denser vegetation canopy leads to less sensitive  variation with respect to the water level changes regardless of forested or non-forested canopy. Furthermore, we attempted to estimate water level changes which were then compared with the Envisat altimetry and InSAR results. Our results demonstrated a potential to generate two-dimensional maps of water level changes over the wetlands, and thus may have substantial synergy with the planned Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT mission.

  17. Insulin sensitizers prevent fine particulate matter-induced vascular insulin resistance and changes in endothelial progenitor cell homeostasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberzettl, Petra; McCracken, James P; Bhatnagar, Aruni; Conklin, Daniel J

    2016-06-01

    Exposure to fine particular matter (PM2.5) increases the risk of developing cardiovascular disease and Type 2 diabetes. Because blood vessels are sensitive targets of air pollutant exposure, we examined the effects of concentrated ambient PM2.5 (CAP) on vascular insulin sensitivity and circulating levels of endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs), which reflect cardiovascular health. We found that CAP exposure for 9 days decreased insulin-stimulated Akt phosphorylation in the aorta of mice maintained on control diet. This change was accompanied by the induction of IL-1β and increases in the abundance of cleaved IL-18 and p10 subunit of Casp-1, consistent with the activation of the inflammasome pathway. CAP exposure also suppressed circulating levels of EPCs (Flk-1(+)/Sca-1(+) cells), while enhancing the bone marrow abundance of these cells. Although similar changes in vascular insulin signaling and EPC levels were observed in mice fed high-fat diet, CAP exposure did not exacerbate diet-induced changes in vascular insulin resistance or EPC homeostasis. Treatment with an insulin sensitizer, metformin or rosiglitazone, prevented CAP-induced vascular insulin resistance and NF-κB and inflammasome activation and restored peripheral blood and bone marrow EPC levels. These findings suggest that PM2.5 exposure induces diet-independent vascular insulin resistance and inflammation and prevents EPC mobilization, and that this EPC mobilization defect could be mediated by vascular insulin resistance. Impaired vascular insulin sensitivity may be an important mechanism underlying PM2.5-induced vascular injury, and pharmacological sensitization to insulin action could potentially prevent deficits in vascular repair and mitigate vascular inflammation due to exposure to elevated levels of ambient air pollution. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

  18. Fish wariness is a more sensitive indicator to changes in fishing pressure than abundance, length or biomass.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goetze, Jordan S; Januchowski-Hartley, Fraser A; Claudet, Joachim; Langlois, Tim J; Wilson, Shaun K; Jupiter, Stacy D

    2017-06-01

    Identifying the most sensitive indicators to changes in fishing pressure is important for accurately detecting impacts. Biomass is thought to be more sensitive than abundance and length, while the wariness of fishes is emerging as a new metric. Periodically harvested closures (PHCs) that involve the opening and closing of an area to fishing are the most common form of fisheries management in the western Pacific. The opening of PHCs to fishing provides a unique opportunity to compare the sensitivity of metrics, such as abundance, length, biomass and wariness, to changes in fishing pressure. Diver-operated stereo video (stereo-DOV) provides data on fish behavior (using a proxy for wariness, minimum approach distance) simultaneous to abundance and length estimates. We assessed the impact of PHC protection and harvesting on the abundance, length, biomass, and wariness of target species using stereo-DOVs. This allowed a comparison of the sensitivity of these metrics to changes in fishing pressure across four PHCs in Fiji, where spearfishing and fish drives are common. Before PHCs were opened to fishing they consistently decreased the wariness of targeted species but were less likely to increase abundance, length, or biomass. Pulse harvesting of PHCs resulted in a rapid increase in the wariness of fishes but inconsistent impacts across the other metrics. Our results suggest that fish wariness is the most sensitive indicator of fishing pressure, followed by biomass, length, and abundance. The collection of behavioral data simultaneously with abundance, length, and biomass estimates using stereo-DOVs offers a cost-effective indicator of protection or rapid increases in fishing pressure. Stereo-DOVs can rapidly provide large amounts of behavioral data from monitoring programs historically focused on estimating abundance and length of fishes, which is not feasible with visual methods. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  19. A novel insulin resistance index to monitor changes in insulin sensitivity and glucose tolerance: the ACT NOW study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathy, Devjit; Cobb, Jeff E; Gall, Walter; Adam, Klaus-Peter; George, Tabitha; Schwenke, Dawn C; Banerji, MaryAnn; Bray, George A; Buchanan, Thomas A; Clement, Stephen C; Henry, Robert R; Kitabchi, Abbas E; Mudaliar, Sunder; Ratner, Robert E; Stentz, Frankie B; Reaven, Peter D; Musi, Nicolas; Ferrannini, Ele; DeFronzo, Ralph A

    2015-05-01

    The objective was to test the clinical utility of Quantose M(Q) to monitor changes in insulin sensitivity after pioglitazone therapy in prediabetic subjects. Quantose M(Q) is derived from fasting measurements of insulin, α-hydroxybutyrate, linoleoyl-glycerophosphocholine, and oleate, three nonglucose metabolites shown to correlate with insulin-stimulated glucose disposal. Participants were 428 of the total of 602 ACT NOW impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) subjects randomized to pioglitazone (45 mg/d) or placebo and followed for 2.4 years. At baseline and study end, fasting plasma metabolites required for determination of Quantose, glycated hemoglobin, and oral glucose tolerance test with frequent plasma insulin and glucose measurements to calculate the Matsuda index of insulin sensitivity were obtained. Pioglitazone treatment lowered IGT conversion to diabetes (hazard ratio = 0.25; 95% confidence interval = 0.13-0.50; P < .0001). Although glycated hemoglobin did not track with insulin sensitivity, Quantose M(Q) increased in pioglitazone-treated subjects (by 1.45 [3.45] mg·min(-1)·kgwbm(-1)) (median [interquartile range]) (P < .001 vs placebo), as did the Matsuda index (by 3.05 [4.77] units; P < .0001). Quantose M(Q) correlated with the Matsuda index at baseline and change in the Matsuda index from baseline (rho, 0.85 and 0.79, respectively; P < .0001) and was progressively higher across closeout glucose tolerance status (diabetes, IGT, normal glucose tolerance). In logistic models including only anthropometric and fasting measurements, Quantose M(Q) outperformed both Matsuda and fasting insulin in predicting incident diabetes. In IGT subjects, Quantose M(Q) parallels changes in insulin sensitivity and glucose tolerance with pioglitazone therapy. Due to its strong correlation with improved insulin sensitivity and its ease of use, Quantose M(Q) may serve as a useful clinical test to identify and monitor therapy in insulin-resistant patients.

  20. Comparison of the sensitivity of surface downward longwave radiation to changes in water vapor at two high elevation sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Yonghua; Naud, Catherine M; Rangwala, Imtiaz; Landry, Christopher C; Miller, James R

    2014-01-01

    Among the potential reasons for enhanced warming rates in many high elevation regions is the nonlinear relationship between surface downward longwave radiation (DLR) and specific humidity (q). In this study we use ground-based observations at two neighboring high elevation sites in Southwestern Colorado that have different local topography and are 1.3 km apart horizontally and 348 m vertically. We examine the spatial consistency of the sensitivities (partial derivatives) of DLR with respect to changes in q, and the sensitivities are obtained from the Jacobian matrix of a neural network analysis. Although the relationship between DLR and q is the same at both sites, the sensitivities are higher when q is smaller, which occurs more frequently at the higher elevation site. There is a distinct hourly distribution in the sensitivities at both sites especially for high sensitivity cases, although the range is greater at the lower elevation site. The hourly distribution of the sensitivities relates to that of q. Under clear skies during daytime, q is similar between the two sites, however under cloudy skies or at night, it is not. This means that the DLR–q sensitivities are similar at the two sites during daytime but not at night, and care must be exercised when using data from one site to infer the impact of water vapor feedbacks at another site, particularly at night. Our analysis suggests that care should be exercised when using the lapse rate adjustment to infill high frequency data in a complex topographical region, particularly when one of the stations is subject to cold air pooling as found here. (letter)

  1. Comparison of the Sensitivity of Surface Downward Longwave Radiation to Changes in Water Vapor at Two High Elevation Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yonghua; Naud, Catherine M.; Rangwala, Imtiaz; Landry, Christopher C.; Miller, James R.

    2014-01-01

    Among the potential reasons for enhanced warming rates in many high elevation regions is the nonlinear relationship between surface downward longwave radiation (DLR) and specific humidity (q). In this study we use ground-based observations at two neighboring high elevation sites in Southwestern Colorado that have different local topography and are 1.3 kilometers apart horizontally and 348 meters vertically. We examine the spatial consistency of the sensitivities (partial derivatives) of DLR with respect to changes in q, and the sensitivities are obtained from the Jacobian matrix of a neural network analysis. Although the relationship between DLR and q is the same at both sites, the sensitivities are higher when q is smaller, which occurs more frequently at the higher elevation site. There is a distinct hourly distribution in the sensitivities at both sites especially for high sensitivity cases, although the range is greater at the lower elevation site. The hourly distribution of the sensitivities relates to that of q. Under clear skies during daytime, q is similar between the two sites, however under cloudy skies or at night, it is not. This means that the DLR-q sensitivities are similar at the two sites during daytime but not at night, and care must be exercised when using data from one site to infer the impact of water vapor feedbacks at another site, particularly at night. Our analysis suggests that care should be exercised when using the lapse rate adjustment to infill high frequency data in a complex topographical region, particularly when one of the stations is subject to cold air pooling as found here.

  2. Multi- and hyperspectral remote sensing change detection with generalized difference images by the IR-MAD method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Canty, Morton J.

    2005-01-01

    -based method for determining thresholds for differentiating between change and no-change in the difference images, and for estimating the variance of the no-change observations. This variance is used to establish a single change/no-change image based on the general multivariate difference image. The resulting....../no-change image can be used to establish both change regions and to extract observations based on which a fully automated orthogonal regression analysis based normalization of the multivariate data between the two points in time can be developed. Also, regularization issues typically important in connection...

  3. Metabolic and fibrinolytic response to changed insulin sensitivity in users of oral contraceptives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Kresten R.; Christiansen, Erik; Madsbad, Sten

    1999-01-01

    systems, are relevant in the evaluation of the risk of developing vascular disorders or diabetes in OC users. We studied insulin sensitivity index (S(I)), glucose effectiveness (S(g)), and insulin response in young, healthy women by frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance tests before and after...... randomization to 6 months of treatment with ethinyl estradiol in triphasic combination with norgestimate (n = 17) or gestodene (n = 20). Measurements of fasting triglycerides and antigen concentrations of tissue-type plasminogen activator (t-PA) and plasminogen activator inhibitor type 1 (PAI-1) were also...... included. Both compounds increased fasting plasma insulin and reduced S(i) but did not affect S(g). The relationships between S(i) and insulin response were unchanged. No consistent correlation between insulin sensitivity and triglycerides, t-PA, or PAI-1 were demonstrated before or during treatment. We...

  4. Exploring on the Sensitivity Changes of the LC Resonance Magnetic Sensors Affected by Superposed Ringing Signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Tingting; Zhou, Kun; Yu, Sijia; Wang, Pengfei; Wan, Ling; Zhao, Jing

    2018-04-25

    LC resonance magnetic sensors are widely used in low-field nuclear magnetic resonance (LF-NMR) and surface nuclear magnetic resonance (SNMR) due to their high sensitivity, low cost and simple design. In magnetically shielded rooms, LC resonance magnetic sensors can exhibit sensitivities at the fT/√Hz level in the kHz range. However, since the equivalent magnetic field noise of this type of sensor is greatly affected by the environment, weak signals are often submerged in practical applications, resulting in relatively low signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs). To determine why noise increases in unshielded environments, we analysed the noise levels of an LC resonance magnetic sensor ( L ≠ 0) and a Hall sensor ( L ≈ 0) in different environments. The experiments and simulations indicated that the superposed ringing of the LC resonance magnetic sensors led to the observed increase in white noise level caused by environmental interference. Nevertheless, ringing is an inherent characteristic of LC resonance magnetic sensors. It cannot be eliminated when environmental interference exists. In response to this problem, we proposed a method that uses matching resistors with various values to adjust the quality factor Q of the LC resonance magnetic sensor in different measurement environments to obtain the best sensitivity. The LF-NMR experiment in the laboratory showed that the SNR is improved significantly when the LC resonance magnetic sensor with the best sensitivity is selected for signal acquisition in the light of the test environment. (When the matching resistance is 10 kΩ, the SNR is 3.46 times that of 510 Ω). This study improves LC resonance magnetic sensors for nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) detection in a variety of environments.

  5. Prospects for climate change on three Polynesian outliers in Solomon Islands: Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Kjeld; May, Wilhelm; Birk, Thomas Ladegaard Kümmel

    2011-01-01

    -physical conditions, economic base and social organization – the exposure, sensitivity and adaptation options of island populations are analyzed. It is argued that the three islands are likely to be very differently affected for reasons related to all three categories of characteristics. Local adaptive capacity...... is likely to be insufficient, especially in the case of Ontong Java (which is an atoll), and economic, social, institutional and political factors, external to the islands, will be of increasing importance....

  6. Increase in sensitivity of sensor units of environment refraction index change based on superficial plasmon resonance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ushenin Yu. V.

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Results of computer modeling of an angular spectrum superficial plasmon resonance in metal films measurements with device PLAZMON-5 with infra-red radiator are analysed. It is shown that use of an infra-red source of radiation allows to improve sensitivity of sensor device in comparison with source of visible light. On an example of dielectric refraction indexes measurement with PLAZMON-5 device experimental check of theoretical calculations has been carried out.

  7. Sensitivity of Austempering Heat Treatment of Ductile Irons to Changes in Process Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boccardo, A. D.; Dardati, P. M.; Godoy, L. A.; Celentano, D. J.

    2018-03-01

    Austempered ductile iron (ADI) is frequently obtained by means of a three-step austempering heat treatment. The parameters of this process play a crucial role on the microstructure of the final product. This paper considers the influence of some process parameters (i.e., the initial microstructure of ductile iron and the thermal cycle) on key features of the heat treatment (such as minimum required time for austenitization and austempering and microstructure of the final product). A computational simulation of the austempering heat treatment is reported in this work, which accounts for a coupled thermo-metallurgical behavior in terms of the evolution of temperature at the scale of the part being investigated (the macroscale) and the evolution of phases at the scale of microconstituents (the microscale). The paper focuses on the sensitivity of the process by looking at a sensitivity index and scatter plots. The sensitivity indices are determined by using a technique based on the variance of the output. The results of this study indicate that both the initial microstructure and the thermal cycle parameters play a key role in the production of ADI. This work also provides a guideline to help selecting values of the appropriate process parameters to obtain parts with a required microstructural characteristic.

  8. Quantifying the sensitivity of post-glacial sea level change to laterally varying viscosity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Ophelia; Al-Attar, David; Tromp, Jeroen; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Austermann, Jacqueline; Lau, Harriet C. P.

    2018-05-01

    We present a method for calculating the derivatives of measurements of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) with respect to the viscosity structure of the Earth and the ice sheet history. These derivatives, or kernels, quantify the linearised sensitivity of measurements to the underlying model parameters. The adjoint method is used to enable efficient calculation of theoretically exact sensitivity kernels within laterally heterogeneous earth models that can have a range of linear or non-linear viscoelastic rheologies. We first present a new approach to calculate GIA in the time domain, which, in contrast to the more usual formulation in the Laplace domain, is well suited to continuously varying earth models and to the use of the adjoint method. Benchmarking results show excellent agreement between our formulation and previous methods. We illustrate the potential applications of the kernels calculated in this way through a range of numerical calculations relative to a spherically symmetric background model. The complex spatial patterns of the sensitivities are not intuitive, and this is the first time that such effects are quantified in an efficient and accurate manner.

  9. Sensitivity of Austempering Heat Treatment of Ductile Irons to Changes in Process Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boccardo, A. D.; Dardati, P. M.; Godoy, L. A.; Celentano, D. J.

    2018-06-01

    Austempered ductile iron (ADI) is frequently obtained by means of a three-step austempering heat treatment. The parameters of this process play a crucial role on the microstructure of the final product. This paper considers the influence of some process parameters ( i.e., the initial microstructure of ductile iron and the thermal cycle) on key features of the heat treatment (such as minimum required time for austenitization and austempering and microstructure of the final product). A computational simulation of the austempering heat treatment is reported in this work, which accounts for a coupled thermo-metallurgical behavior in terms of the evolution of temperature at the scale of the part being investigated (the macroscale) and the evolution of phases at the scale of microconstituents (the microscale). The paper focuses on the sensitivity of the process by looking at a sensitivity index and scatter plots. The sensitivity indices are determined by using a technique based on the variance of the output. The results of this study indicate that both the initial microstructure and the thermal cycle parameters play a key role in the production of ADI. This work also provides a guideline to help selecting values of the appropriate process parameters to obtain parts with a required microstructural characteristic.

  10. Changing Smoking Behavior of Staff at Dr. Zainoel Abidin Provincial General Hospital, Banda Aceh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Said Usman

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Smoking tobacco is a habit of individuals. Determinants of smoking behavior are multiple factors both within the individual and in the social environment around the individual. Staff smoking has been an undesirable phenomenon at Dr. Zainoel Abidin Provincial General Hospital in Banda Aceh. Health promotion efforts are a strategy that has resulted in behavioral changes with reductions in smoking by staff. This action research was designed to analyze changes in smoking behavior of hospital staff. The sample for this research was all 152 male staff who were smokers. The results of this research showed that Health Promotion Interventions (HPI consisting of personal empowerment plus social support and advocacy to improve employee knowledge and attitudes influenced staff to stop or to significantly. HPI employed included counseling programs, distribution of antismoking leaflets, putting up antismoking posters, and installation of no smoking signs. These HPI proved effective to increase knowledge and create a positive attitude to nonsmoking that resulted in major reductions in smoking by staff when offsite and complete cessation of smoking whilst in the hospital. Continuous evaluation, monitoring, and strengthening of policies banning smoking should be maintained in all hospitals.

  11. Bone changes occurring spontaneously and caused by estrogen in early postmenopausal women: a local generalized phenomenon?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Christiansen, C.; Gotfredsen, A.; Riis, B.J.; Hassager, C.

    1986-01-01

    Regional values of bone mineral content and bone mineral density were calculated from total body dual photon absorptiometry scans of 52 early postmenopausal women treated with estrogen for one year and of 52 similar women treated with placebo. The six regions were head, arms, chest, spine, pelvis, and legs. In addition, bone mineral density of the spine was calculated by dual photon absorptiometry and bone mineral content of the forearm by single photon absorptiometry, using separate special purpose scanners. All regions were unchanged after one year of treatment with estrogen, excluding the lumbar spine, for which values rose. Values for all regions except the lumbar spine fell significantly in the placebo group. The rates of loss ranged from 2 to 8%, with no significant differences between the regions. It is concluded that loss of bone in the early menopause is a generalized phenomenon, affecting all parts of the skeleton. Furthermore, estrogen prophylaxis for loss of bone is effective in all parts of the skeleton. Finally, it is suggested that the measurement of bone mineral content in the forearm be used for clinical follow up of bone changes, as this method is superior to others in the ratio of change to precision

  12. Amygdala functional connectivity as a longitudinal biomarker of symptom changes in generalized anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makovac, Elena; Watson, David R; Meeten, Frances; Garfinkel, Sarah N; Cercignani, Mara; Critchley, Hugo D; Ottaviani, Cristina

    2016-11-01

    Generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) is characterized by excessive worry, autonomic dysregulation and functional amygdala dysconnectivity, yet these illness markers have rarely been considered together, nor their interrelationship tested longitudinally. We hypothesized that an individual's capacity for emotion regulation predicts longer-term changes in amygdala functional connectivity, supporting the modification of GAD core symptoms. Sixteen patients with GAD (14 women) and individually matched controls were studied at two time points separated by 1 year. Resting-state fMRI data and concurrent measurement of vagally mediated heart rate variability were obtained before and after the induction of perseverative cognition. A greater rise in levels of worry following the induction predicted a stronger reduction in connectivity between right amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex, and enhanced coupling between left amygdala and ventral tegmental area at follow-up. Similarly, amplified physiological responses to the induction predicted increased connectivity between right amygdala and thalamus. Longitudinal shifts in a distinct set of functional connectivity scores were associated with concomitant changes in GAD symptomatology over the course of the year. Results highlight the prognostic value of indices of emotional dysregulation and emphasize the integral role of the amygdala as a critical hub in functional neural circuitry underlying the progression of GAD symptomatology. © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press.

  13. Millennial changes of the Baltic Sea salinity. Studies of the sensitivity of the salinity to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gustafsson, Bo G.

    2004-05-01

    An important question for safety assessments of nuclear waste repositories is the salinity of the Baltic Sea under different conditions. The salinity affects the potential recipient ecosystems, the water turnover along the coast and the hydrology as well as the groundwater chemistry. In this report a model that enables computation of the Baltic Sea salinity for different sea level positions and freshwater supplies is presented. The model is used to compute the salinities in Baltic proper, Bothnian Sea and Bothnian Bay for all combinations of global sea level changes from -10 m to 10 m and freshwater supplies from 0 to 60,000 m 3 /s. The results are presented in a series of graphs that enables the reader to make an assessment of the impact of a given climatic change. The model is also used to compute the decrease of the salinity in Bothnian Sea and Bothnian Bay during the next few millennia due to the postglacial uplift. The results show that modest changes in global sea level, say ±1 m, give a salinity change of the order of 1 psu in southern Baltic proper. Changing the freshwater supply with about 2,000 m 3 /s (approximately 10%) gives a similar salinity change. Further, a sea level drop of about 5 m or an increase of the freshwater supply by a factor of 3 is needed to reduce the salinity in southern Baltic proper below 1 psu. In this limit large parts of the Baltic would be limnic. A 50% decrease of the freshwater supply increase the salinity in the southern Baltic proper by a factor of 2 to some 15 psu, but the effect is even more drastic in Bothnian Sea and Bothnian Bay where the salinity increase to 13 and 10 psu, respectively. A less windy climate might have a significant effect in lowering the Baltic salinity due to a combined effect of lowered mixing in Kattegat and lowered exchange between Kattegat and the Baltic. A windier climate will not have such strong effect since increased mixing does not affect the Baltic as much. Most probably the shoreline

  14. Millennial changes of the Baltic Sea salinity. Studies of the sensitivity of the salinity to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gustafsson, Bo G. [Oceanus Havsundersoekningar, Goeteborg (Sweden)

    2004-05-01

    An important question for safety assessments of nuclear waste repositories is the salinity of the Baltic Sea under different conditions. The salinity affects the potential recipient ecosystems, the water turnover along the coast and the hydrology as well as the groundwater chemistry. In this report a model that enables computation of the Baltic Sea salinity for different sea level positions and freshwater supplies is presented. The model is used to compute the salinities in Baltic proper, Bothnian Sea and Bothnian Bay for all combinations of global sea level changes from -10 m to 10 m and freshwater supplies from 0 to 60,000 m{sup 3}/s. The results are presented in a series of graphs that enables the reader to make an assessment of the impact of a given climatic change. The model is also used to compute the decrease of the salinity in Bothnian Sea and Bothnian Bay during the next few millennia due to the postglacial uplift. The results show that modest changes in global sea level, say {+-}1 m, give a salinity change of the order of 1 psu in southern Baltic proper. Changing the freshwater supply with about 2,000 m{sup 3}/s (approximately 10%) gives a similar salinity change. Further, a sea level drop of about 5 m or an increase of the freshwater supply by a factor of 3 is needed to reduce the salinity in southern Baltic proper below 1 psu. In this limit large parts of the Baltic would be limnic. A 50% decrease of the freshwater supply increase the salinity in the southern Baltic proper by a factor of 2 to some 15 psu, but the effect is even more drastic in Bothnian Sea and Bothnian Bay where the salinity increase to 13 and 10 psu, respectively. A less windy climate might have a significant effect in lowering the Baltic salinity due to a combined effect of lowered mixing in Kattegat and lowered exchange between Kattegat and the Baltic. A windier climate will not have such strong effect since increased mixing does not affect the Baltic as much. Most probably the

  15. The influence of personal BMI on body size estimations and sensitivity to body size change in anorexia spectrum disorders.

    OpenAIRE

    Cornelissen, Katri; Bester, Andre; Cairns, Paul; Tovee, Martin; Cornelissen, Piers

    2015-01-01

    In this cross-sectional study, we investigated the influence of personal BMI on body size estimation in 42 women who have symptoms of anorexia (referred to henceforth as anorexia spectrum disorders, ANSD), and 100 healthy controls. Low BMI control participants over-estimate their size and high BMI controls under-estimate, a pattern which is predicted by a perceptual phenomenon called contraction bias. In addition, control participants' sensitivity to size change declines as their BMI increase...

  16. Dopamine D1 Sensitivity in the Prefrontal Cortex Predicts General Cognitive Abilities and is Modulated by Working Memory Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wass, Christopher; Pizzo, Alessandro; Sauce, Bruno; Kawasumi, Yushi; Sturzoiu, Tudor; Ree, Fred; Otto, Tim; Matzel, Louis D.

    2013-01-01

    A common source of variance (i.e., "general intelligence") underlies an individual's performance across diverse tests of cognitive ability, and evidence indicates that the processing efficacy of working memory may serve as one such source of common variance. One component of working memory, selective attention, has been reported to…

  17. A Global Assessment of Runoff Sensitivity to Changes in Precipitation, Potential Evaporation, and Other Factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berghuijs, W.R.; Larsen, Joshua R.; van Emmerik, T.H.M.; Woods, Ross A.

    2017-01-01

    Precipitation (P) and potential evaporation (Ep) are commonly studied drivers of changing freshwater availability, as aridity (Ep/P) explains ∼90% of the spatial differences in mean runoff across the globe. However, it is unclear if changes in aridity over time are also the

  18. Generalization of cavity theory for the case of neutrons. Application to the calculation of the sensitivity of a dose meter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simoen, J.P.

    1981-01-01

    When a heterogeneous dose meter is used - i.e. a dose meter in which the wall and the detector medium are not of identical composition - it is possible to establish a general link between the information collected and the absorbed dose sought only on the basis of a measurement theory. For electrons, a cavity theory was progressively developed (Bragg, Gray, Burlin) and at present represents a model making possible the interpretation of measurements of doses due to photons. Regarding neutrons, only a number of special cases have been handled; as far as we are aware, no general theory similar to that of Burlin has been put forward. It is, however, possible, to generalize the cavity theory by using Burlin's analysis as a starting point and taking into account the variety of secondary charged particles brought into motion by the neutrons, particularly when the dimensions of the cavity are of the same order as, or are large in respect to, the range of the secondary charged particles. The present paper therefore proposes an analytical expression for the absorbed dose sought as a function of the data collected. This relationship involves two components, one relating to directly ionizing particles generated in the dose meter wall and the other to particles generated in the detector medium; it also takes account of the variation in the radiometrological ''constant'' associated with the detector medium as a function of the type and energy of the secondary particles. Burlin's theory then constitutes a special case of this general theory. The general relationship established makes it possible to express the response of a dose meter in terms of the various parameters relating to the characteristics of the instrument and to the primary and secondary particles concerned. (author)

  19. Behavioral sensitivity of Japanese children with and without ADHD to changing reinforcer availability: an experimental study using signal detection methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furukawa, Emi; Shimabukuro, Shizuka; Alsop, Brent; Tripp, Gail

    2017-09-25

    Most research on motivational processes in attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) has been undertaken in Western Europe and North America. The extent to which these findings apply to other cultural groups is unclear. The current study evaluated the behavioral sensitivity of Japanese children with and without ADHD to changing reward availability. Forty-one school-aged children, 19 diagnosed with DSM-IV ADHD, completed a signal-detection task in which correct discriminations between two stimuli were associated with different reinforcement frequencies. The response alternative associated with the higher rate of reinforcement switched twice during the task without warning. Both groups of children developed an initial bias toward the more frequently reinforced response alternative. When the reward contingencies switched the response allocation (bias) of the control group children followed suit. The response bias scores of the children with ADHD did not, suggesting impaired tracking of reward availability over time. Japanese children with ADHD adjust their behavioral responses to changing reinforcer availability less than their typically developing peers. This is not explained by poor attention to task or a lack of sensitivity to reward. The current results are consistent with altered sensitivity to changing reward contingencies identified in non-Japanese samples of children with ADHD. Irrespective of their country of origin, children with ADHD will likely benefit from behavioral expectations and reinforcement contingencies being made explicit together with high rates of reinforcement for appropriate behaviors.

  20. Examining reward-seeking, negative self-beliefs and over-general autobiographical memory as mechanisms of change in classroom prevention programs for adolescent depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, Frances; Rawal, Adhip; Riglin, Lucy; Lewis, Gemma; Lewis, Glyn; Dunsmuir, Sandra

    2015-11-01

    Effective methods to prevent adolescent depressive symptoms could reduce suffering and burden across the lifespan. However, psychological interventions delivered to adolescents show efficacy only in symptomatic or high-risk youth. Targeting causal risk factors and assessing mechanistic change can help devise efficacious universal or classroom based prevention programs. A non-randomized longitudinal design was used to compare three classroom-based prevention programs for adolescent depression (Behavioral Activation with Reward Processing, "Thinking about Reward in Young People" (TRY); Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) and Mindfulness Based Cognitive Therapy (MBCT)), and determine cognitive mechanisms of change in these programs. Cognitive mechanisms examined were reward-seeking, negative self-beliefs (assessed with behavioral tasks) and over-general autobiographical memory. 256 healthy adolescents aged 13-14 participated with 236 (92%) and 227 (89%) completing the pre- and post-assessments. TRY was the only intervention associated with a reduction in depressive symptoms at follow-up. Reward-seeking increased following TRY. In the other programs there were non-significant changes in cognitive mechanisms, with more reflective negative self-beliefs in CBT and fewer over-general autobiographical memories in MBCT In the TRY program, which focused on increasing sensitivity to rewarding activities, reward seeking increased and this was associated with decreased depressive symptoms. Due to the infeasibility of a cluster randomized controlled trial, a non-randomized design was used. Increased reward-seeking was associated with decreased depressive symptoms and may be a mechanism of depressive symptom change in the intervention with a focus on enhancing sensitivity and awareness of reward. This study provides preliminary evidence to suggest that incorporating activities to enhance reward sensitivity may be fruitful in randomized controlled trials of universal prevention

  1. Using Graphs of Gibbs Energy versus Temperature in General Chemistry Discussions of Phase Changes and Colligative Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Robert M.; Riley, Patrick; Schwinefus, Jeff; Fischer, Paul J.

    2008-01-01

    The use of qualitative graphs of Gibbs energy versus temperature is described in the context of chemical demonstrations involving phase changes and colligative properties at the general chemistry level. (Contains 5 figures and 1 note.)

  2. Testing environment shape differentially modulates baseline and nicotine-induced changes in behavior: Sex differences, hypoactivity, and behavioral sensitization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Illenberger, J M; Mactutus, C F; Booze, R M; Harrod, S B

    2018-02-01

    In those who use nicotine, the likelihood of dependence, negative health consequences, and failed treatment outcomes differ as a function of gender. Women may be more sensitive to learning processes driven by repeated nicotine exposure that influence conditioned approach and craving. Sex differences in nicotine's influence over overt behaviors (i.e. hypoactivity or behavioral sensitization) can be examined using passive drug administration models in male and female rats. Following repeated intravenous (IV) nicotine injections, behavioral sensitization is enhanced in female rats compared to males. Nonetheless, characteristics of the testing environment also mediate rodent behavior following drug administration. The current experiment used a within-subjects design to determine if nicotine-induced changes in horizontal activity, center entries, and rearing displayed by male and female rats is detected when behavior was recorded in round vs. square chambers. Behaviors were recorded from each group (males-round: n=19; males-square: n=18; females-square: n=19; and females-round: n=19) immediately following IV injection of saline, acute nicotine, and repeated nicotine (0.05mg/kg/injection). Prior to nicotine treatment, sex differences were apparent only in round chambers. Following nicotine administration, the order of magnitude for the chamber that provided enhanced detection of hypoactivity or sensitization was contingent upon both the dependent measure under examination and the animal's biological sex. As such, round and square testing chambers provide different, and sometimes contradictory, accounts of how male and female rats respond to nicotine treatment. It is possible that a central mechanism such as stress or cue sensitivity is impacted by both drug exposure and environment to drive the sex differences observed in the current experiment. Until these complex relations are better understood, experiments considering sex differences in drug responses should balance

  3. EXPORT CONTROLS: Change in Export Licensing Jurisdiction for Two Sensitive Dual-Use Items

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Spencer, F

    1997-01-01

    This report examines the jurisdiction shift of two items, previously controlled by the State Department to the Department of Commerce, and the implications of this change to export licensing jurisdiction...

  4. No change in rectal sensitivity after gut-directed hypnotherapy in children with functional abdominal pain or irritable bowel syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlieger, A M; van den Berg, M M; Menko-Frankenhuis, C; Bongers, M E J; Tromp, E; Benninga, M A

    2010-01-01

    Gut-directed hypnotherapy (HT) has recently been shown to be highly effective in treating children with functional abdominal pain (FAP) and irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). This study was conducted to determine the extent to which this treatment success is because of an improvement in rectal sensitivity. A total of 46 patients (aged 8-18 years) with FAP (n=28) or IBS (n=18) were randomized to either 12 weeks of standard medical therapy (SMT) or HT. To assess rectal sensitivity, a pressure-controlled intermittent distension protocol (barostat) was performed before and after the therapy. Rectal sensitivity scores changed in SMT patients from 15.1+/-7.3 mm Hg at baseline to 18.6+/-8.5 mm Hg after 12 weeks of treatment (P=0.09) and in HT patients from 17.0+/-9.2 mm Hg to 22.5+/-10.1 mm Hg (P=0.09). The number of patients with rectal hypersensitivity decreased from 6 of 18 to 0 of 18 in the HT group (P=0.04) vs. 6 of 20 to 4 of 20 in the SMT group (P=0.67). No relationship was established between treatment success and rectal pain thresholds. Rectal sensitivity scores at baseline were not correlated with intensity, frequency, or duration of abdominal pain. Clinical success achieved with HT cannot be explained by improvement in rectal sensitivity. Furthermore, no association could be found between rectal barostat findings and clinical symptoms in children with FAP or IBS. Further studies are necessary to shed more light on both the role of rectal sensitivity in pediatric FAP and IBS and the mechanisms by which hypnotherapy results in improvement of clinical symptoms.

  5. Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    A.D. McGuire; L.G. Anderson; T.R. Christensen; S. Dallimore; L. Guo; D.J. Hayes; M. Heimann; T.D. Lorenson; R.W. Macdonald; N. Roulet

    2009-01-01

    The recent warming in the Arctic is affecting a broad spectrum of physical, ecological, and human/cultural systems that may be irreversible on century time scales and have the potential to cause rapid changes in the earth system. The response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to changes in climate is a major issue of global concern, yet there has not been a...

  6. Sensitivity of agricultural runoff loads to rising levels of CO{sub 2} and climate change in the San Joaquin Valley watershed of California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ficklin, Darren L.; Luo Yuzhou; Luedeling, Eike; Gatzke, Sarah E. [Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Zhang Minghua, E-mail: mhzhang@ucdavis.ed [Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States)

    2010-01-15

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the impact of climate change on sediment, nitrate, phosphorus and pesticide (diazinon and chlorpyrifos) runoff in the San Joaquin watershed in California. This study used modeling techniques that include variations of CO{sub 2}, temperature, and precipitation to quantify these responses. Precipitation had a greater impact on agricultural runoff compared to changes in either CO{sub 2} concentration or temperature. Increase of precipitation by +-10% and +-20% generally changed agricultural runoff proportionally. Solely increasing CO{sub 2} concentration resulted in an increase in nitrate, phosphorus, and chlorpyrifos yield by 4.2, 7.8, and 6.4%, respectively, and a decrease in sediment and diazinon yield by 6.3 and 5.3%, respectively, in comparison to the present-day reference scenario. Only increasing temperature reduced yields of all agricultural runoff components. The results suggest that agricultural runoff in the San Joaquin watershed is sensitive to precipitation, temperature, and CO{sub 2} concentration changes. - Agricultural runoff is significantly affected by changes in precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration.

  7. Sensitivity of agricultural runoff loads to rising levels of CO2 and climate change in the San Joaquin Valley watershed of California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ficklin, Darren L.; Luo Yuzhou; Luedeling, Eike; Gatzke, Sarah E.; Zhang Minghua

    2010-01-01

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the impact of climate change on sediment, nitrate, phosphorus and pesticide (diazinon and chlorpyrifos) runoff in the San Joaquin watershed in California. This study used modeling techniques that include variations of CO 2 , temperature, and precipitation to quantify these responses. Precipitation had a greater impact on agricultural runoff compared to changes in either CO 2 concentration or temperature. Increase of precipitation by ±10% and ±20% generally changed agricultural runoff proportionally. Solely increasing CO 2 concentration resulted in an increase in nitrate, phosphorus, and chlorpyrifos yield by 4.2, 7.8, and 6.4%, respectively, and a decrease in sediment and diazinon yield by 6.3 and 5.3%, respectively, in comparison to the present-day reference scenario. Only increasing temperature reduced yields of all agricultural runoff components. The results suggest that agricultural runoff in the San Joaquin watershed is sensitive to precipitation, temperature, and CO 2 concentration changes. - Agricultural runoff is significantly affected by changes in precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO 2 concentration.

  8. A model of phone call intervention in sensitizing the change of dietary pattern

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eliane Corrêa Chaves

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To propose a model of phone call intervention for changing dietary patterns and to assess its effectiveness. Method: A study carried out at the Health Promotion School of Medicine, University of São Paulo, with 27 subjects, 3-5 phone calls contacts per user, by means of which were given orientations and interventions on the principles of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy and the Transtheoretical Model on healthy eating. We analyzed the variables weight and body mass index, dietary patterns and overall stage of motivation to change. The data were submitted to analysis of variance with repeated measures at different stages of evaluation: pre-contact, 3rd and 5th phone calls. Results: After intervention, users showed a change in eating behavior in the third contact, and change occurred in weight and BMI in one patient. All findings were not statistically significant. There was improvement in the motivation to acquire new eating habits, also not significant. Conclusion: There was a slight change in feeding behavior, the motivation to change improved for all participants, without, however, have been effective in this type of approach.

  9. General Practitioners' Perspective on eHealth and Lifestyle Change: Qualitative Interview Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Carl Joakim; Søgaard, Gabrielle Isidora; Clemensen, Jane; Sndergaard, Jens; Nielsen, Jesper Bo

    2018-04-17

    Wearables, fitness apps, and patient home monitoring devices are used increasingly by patients and other individuals with lifestyle challenges. All Danish general practitioners (GPs) use digital health records and electronic health (eHealth) consultations on a daily basis, but how they perceive the increasing demand for lifestyle advice and whether they see eHealth as part of their lifestyle support should be explored further. This study aimed to explore GPs' perspectives on eHealth devices and apps and the use of eHealth in supporting healthy lifestyle behavior for their patients and themselves. A total of 10 (5 female and 5 male) GPs were recruited by purposive sampling, aged 38 to 69 years (mean 51 years), of which 4 had an urban uptake of patients and 6 a rural uptake. All of them worked in the region of Southern Denmark where GPs typically work alone or in partnership with 1 to 4 colleagues and all use electronic patient health records for prescription, referral, and asynchronous electronic consultations. We performed qualitative, semistructured, individual in-depth interviews with the GPs in their own office about how they used eHealth and mHealth devices to help patients challenged with lifestyle issues and themselves. We also interviewed how they treated lifestyle-challenged patients in general and how they imagined eHealth could be used in the future. All GPs had smartphones or tablets, and everyone communicated on a daily basis with patients about disease and medicine via their electronic health record and the internet. We identified 3 themes concerning the use of eHealth: (1) how eHealth is used for patients; (2) general practitioners' own experience with improving lifestyle and eHealth support; and (3) relevant coaching techniques for transformation into eHealth. GPs used eHealth frequently for themselves but only infrequently for their patients. GPs are familiar with behavioral change techniques and are ready to use them in eHealth if they are used to

  10. Mercury from wildfires: Global emission inventories and sensitivity to 2000-2050 global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Aditya; Wu, Shiliang; Huang, Yaoxian; Liao, Hong; Kaplan, Jed O.

    2018-01-01

    We estimate the global Hg wildfire emissions for the 2000s and the potential impacts from the 2000-2050 changes in climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions by combining statistical analysis with global data on vegetation type and coverage as well as fire activities. Global Hg wildfire emissions are estimated to be 612 Mg year-1. Africa is the dominant source region (43.8% of global emissions), followed by Eurasia (31%) and South America (16.6%). We find significant perturbations to wildfire emissions of Hg in the context of global change, driven by the projected changes in climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions. 2000-2050 climate change could increase Hg emissions by 14% globally and regionally by 18% for South America, 14% for Africa and 13% for Eurasia. Projected changes in land use by 2050 could decrease the global Hg emissions from wildfires by 13% mainly driven by a decline in African emissions due to significant agricultural land expansion. Future land cover changes could lead to significant increases in Hg emissions over some regions (+32% North America, +14% Africa, +13% Eurasia). Potential enrichment of terrestrial ecosystems in 2050 in response to changes in Hg anthropogenic emissions could increase Hg wildfire emissions globally (+28%) and regionally (+19% North America, +20% South America, +24% Africa, +41% Eurasia). Our results indicate that the future evolution of climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions are all important factors affecting Hg wildfire emissions in the coming decades.

  11. Change in the sensitivity of CR-39 for alpha-tracks after the storage at different temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enomoto, Hiroko; Ishigure, Nobuhito

    2000-01-01

    The effect of storage on track registration property of CR-39 has been investigated. Pieces of CR-39 plate were irradiated with normally incident α-particles and fission fragments using a 252 Cf source prior and posterior to the storage of them in air for one year at different temperatures of -80degC, -23degC, 4degC, 23degC and 35degC. Periodical etching was performed for the pieces stored at different temperatures using the solution of NaOH with 7 mol+l -1 at 70degC for 4 hours. Bulk etch rate (V b ) was obtained from the etch pit diameter (D f ) of fission tracks using the equation: V b =D f /(2t), where t is etching time (h). The sensitivity for α-tracks (S) was obtained from the ratio of the etch pit diameters between α-tracks (D a ) and fission-tracks using the equation: S={1+(D a /D f ) 2 }/{1-(D a /D f ) 2 }-1. The present results show that both the bulk etch rate and α-track sensitivity are not constant, which tend to decrease with storage times and storage temperatures. At -80degC, -23degC and 4degC the change in the sensitivity was negligible. On the other hand, the storage at 23degC for 1 year decreased the sensitivity down to 74%. The most significant effect was observed on the α-track sensitivity at 35degC, which was reduced to 80% for one month, 61% for three months, 42% for six months and 32% for one year. By the comparison of experiments between fading and ageing it is shown that such storage effect is attributed not to fading of latent tracks but mainly to some changes in the detector itself. When CR-39 is used of radon monitoring or neutron monitoring, the following points should be paid attention to: (1) the detector should be stored in a refrigerator before exposure and until etching after the exposure, (2) the change in the sensitivity between the time of calibration and the time of use should be evaluated and the counting efficiency at the measurement should be corrected and (3) for comparison or for interpretation of experimental results

  12. Combined determination of highly sensitive troponin T and copeptin for early exclusion of acute myocardial infarction: first experience in an emergency department of a general hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lotze U

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Ulrich Lotze1, Holger Lemm2, Anke Heyer2, Karin Müller31Department of Internal Medicine, German Red Cross Hospital Sondershausen, Sondershausen, 2Department of Internal Medicine, 3Department of Laboratory Medicine, Saale-Unstrut Hospital Naumburg, Naumburg, GermanyBackground: The purpose of this observational study was to test the diagnostic performance of the Elecsys® troponin T high-sensitive system combined with copeptin measurement for early exclusion of acute myocardial infarction (MI in clinical practice.Methods: Troponin T high-sensitive (diagnostic cutoff: <14 pg/mL and copeptin (diagnostic cutoff: <14 pmol/L levels were determined at admission in addition to other routine laboratory parameters in patients with suspected acute MI presenting to the emergency department of a general hospital over a period of five months.Results: Data from 142 consecutive patients (mean age 71.2 ± 13.5 years, 76 men were analyzed. Final diagnoses were acute MI in 13 patients (nine ST elevation MI, four non-ST elevation MI, 9.2% unstable angina pectoris in three (2.1%, cardiac symptoms not primarily associated with myocardial ischemia in 79 (55.6%, and noncardiac disease in 47 patients (33.1%. The patients with acute MI were younger and had higher troponin T high-sensitive and copeptin values than patients without acute MI. Seventeen patients had very high copeptin values (>150 pmol/L, one of whom had a level of >700 pmol/L and died of pulmonary embolism. A troponin T high-sensitive level of <14 pg/mL in combination with copeptin <14 pmol/L at initial presentation ruled out acute MI in 45 of the 142 patients (31.7%, each with a sensitivity and negative predictive value of 100%.Conclusion: According to this early experience, a single determination of troponin T high-sensitive and copeptin may enable early and accurate exclusion of acute MI in one third of patients, even in an emergency department of a general hospital.Keywords: highly sensitive troponin T

  13. Heteromeric Slick/Slack K+ channels show graded sensitivity to cell volume changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tejada, Maria A; Hashem, Nadia; Callø, Kirstine

    2017-01-01

    Slick and Slack high-conductance K+ channels are found in the CNS, kidneys, pancreas, among other organs, where they play an important role in cell excitability as well as in ion transport processes. They are both activated by Na+ and Cl- but show a differential regulation by cell volume changes....... Slick has been shown to be regulated by cell volume changes, whereas Slack is insensitive. α-subunits of these channels form homomeric as well as heteromeric channels. It is the aim of this work to explore whether the subunit composition of the Slick/Slack heteromeric channel affects the response...... to osmotic challenges. In order to provide with the adequate water permeability to the cell membrane of Xenopus laevis oocytes, mRNA of aquaporin 1 was co-expressed with homomeric or heteromeric Slick and Slack α-subunits. Oocytes were superfused with hypotonic or hypertonic buffers and changes in currents...

  14. Water and Fisheries: The Sensitivity of Water Supply in the Tana River Basin to Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inima, A.K.

    1998-01-01

    Wether climatic change would cause water supply in the dry areas of the earth to diminish or not is a major question. The main objective of this study was to determine wether the water supply in the Tana river Basin of Kenya would diminish in quality as a result of climate change. The Tana River Basin is the immense economic importance to Kenya and is the lifeline of Kenya's electricity supply, accounting for about 70% of the country's electricity supply. The basin houses about 30% of the country's population and 38% of the total irrigable land. A diminished water supply in this content would, therefore, hamper the economic development of the country.Kenya receives, on average, an annual rainfall of 600 mm, and hence classified as arid to semi-arid. This makes it vulnerable to adverse effects of climate change

  15. Behavioural responses to thermal conditions affect seasonal mass change in a heat-sensitive northern ungulate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Floris M van Beest

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Empirical tests that link temperature-mediated changes in behaviour (activity and resource selection to individual fitness or condition are currently lacking for endotherms yet may be critical to understanding the effect of climate change on population dynamics. Moose (Alces alces are thought to suffer from heat stress in all seasons so provide a good biological model to test whether exposure to non-optimal ambient temperatures influence seasonal changes in body mass. Seasonal mass change is an important fitness correlate of large herbivores and affects reproductive success of female moose. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using GPS-collared adult female moose from two populations in southern Norway we quantified individual differences in seasonal activity budget and resource selection patterns as a function of seasonal temperatures thought to induce heat stress in moose. Individual body mass was recorded in early and late winter, and autumn to calculate seasonal mass changes (n = 52 over winter, n = 47 over summer. We found large individual differences in temperature-dependent resource selection patterns as well as within and between season variability in thermoregulatory strategies. As expected, individuals using an optimal strategy, selecting young successional forest (foraging habitat at low ambient temperatures and mature coniferous forest (thermal shelter during thermally stressful conditions, lost less mass in winter and gained more mass in summer. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides evidence that behavioural responses to temperature have important consequences for seasonal mass change in moose living in the south of their distribution in Norway, and may be a contributing factor to recently observed declines in moose demographic performance. Although the mechanisms that underlie the observed temperature mediated habitat-fitness relationship remain to be tested, physiological state and individual variation in

  16. Behavioural responses to thermal conditions affect seasonal mass change in a heat-sensitive northern ungulate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Beest, Floris M; Milner, Jos M

    2013-01-01

    Empirical tests that link temperature-mediated changes in behaviour (activity and resource selection) to individual fitness or condition are currently lacking for endotherms yet may be critical to understanding the effect of climate change on population dynamics. Moose (Alces alces) are thought to suffer from heat stress in all seasons so provide a good biological model to test whether exposure to non-optimal ambient temperatures influence seasonal changes in body mass. Seasonal mass change is an important fitness correlate of large herbivores and affects reproductive success of female moose. Using GPS-collared adult female moose from two populations in southern Norway we quantified individual differences in seasonal activity budget and resource selection patterns as a function of seasonal temperatures thought to induce heat stress in moose. Individual body mass was recorded in early and late winter, and autumn to calculate seasonal mass changes (n = 52 over winter, n = 47 over summer). We found large individual differences in temperature-dependent resource selection patterns as well as within and between season variability in thermoregulatory strategies. As expected, individuals using an optimal strategy, selecting young successional forest (foraging habitat) at low ambient temperatures and mature coniferous forest (thermal shelter) during thermally stressful conditions, lost less mass in winter and gained more mass in summer. This study provides evidence that behavioural responses to temperature have important consequences for seasonal mass change in moose living in the south of their distribution in Norway, and may be a contributing factor to recently observed declines in moose demographic performance. Although the mechanisms that underlie the observed temperature mediated habitat-fitness relationship remain to be tested, physiological state and individual variation in thermal tolerance are likely contributory factors. Climate-related effects on animal

  17. Cadmium induced changes in cell organelles: An ultrastructural study using cadmium sensitive and resistant muntjac fibroblast cell lines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ord, M.J.; Chibber, R.; Bouffler, S.D.

    1988-09-01

    A detailed electron microscopy study of cadmium sensitive and resistant muntjac fibroblast cell lines has identified a wide range of intracellular damage following exposure to cadmium. Damaged organelles included cell membrane, mitochondria, Golgi cisternae and tubular network, chromatin, nucleoli, microfilaments and ribosomes. Although cell membrane damage was generally the earliest indication of adverse cadmium action, particularly with continuous cadmium exposures, cells could tolerate extensive membrane loss. Mitochondrial distortion and some damage to Golgi was also tolerated. The turning point at which cadmium became lethal was generally marked by a cascade of events which included damage to both nuclear and cytoplasmic components. These results for fibroblasts are discussed and compared with damage reported in other types of cells.

  18. Detection of DNA methylation changes in micropropagated banana plants using methylation-sensitive amplification polymorphism (MSAP).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peraza-Echeverria, S; Herrera-Valencia, V A.; Kay, A -J.

    2001-07-01

    The extent of DNA methylation polymorphisms was evaluated in micropropagated banana (Musa AAA cv. 'Grand Naine') derived from either the vegetative apex of the sucker or the floral apex of the male inflorescence using the methylation-sensitive amplification polymorphism (MSAP) technique. In all, 465 fragments, each representing a recognition site cleaved by either or both of the isoschizomers were amplified using eight combinations of primers. A total of 107 sites (23%) were found to be methylated at cytosine in the genome of micropropagated banana plants. In plants micropropagated from the male inflorescence explant 14 (3%) DNA methylation events were polymorphic, while plants micropropagated from the sucker explant produced 8 (1.7%) polymorphisms. No DNA methylation polymorphisms were detected in conventionally propagated banana plants. These results demonstrated the usefulness of MSAP to detect DNA methylation events in micropropagated banana plants and indicate that DNA methylation polymorphisms are associated with micropropagation.

  19. Age-related changes in abdominal fat distribution in Japanese adults in the general population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugihara, Masako; Oka, Rie; Sakurai, Masaru; Nakamura, Koshi; Moriuchi, Tadashi; Miyamoto, Susumu; Takeda, Yoshiyu; Yagi, Kunimasa; Yamagishi, Masakazu

    2011-01-01

    Early studies have indicated that body fat shifts from peripheral stores to central stores with aging. The objective of this study was to investigate age-related changes in abdominal fat distribution of Japanese men and women of the general population over a wide range of body mass indices (BMI). A total of 2,220 non-diabetic, apparently healthy Japanese adults (1,240 men and 980 women; age range 40-69 years) were included in the study sample. All subjects underwent a CT scan at the level of the umbilicus, and the areas of visceral adipose tissue (AT) and subcutaneous AT were quantified. When the subjects were stratified by BMI into 18.5-23.0 kg/m(2), 23.0-27.5 kg/m(2), and 27.5 kg/m(2) or higher, visceral AT was positively correlated with age in all of the BMI strata in both genders (pabdominal fat distribution, women retained the subcutaneous-dominant type of fat distribution up to 70 years.

  20. Competing and coexisting logics in the changing field of English general medical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Ruth; Cheraghi-Sohi, Sudeh; Bayes, Sara; Morriss, Richard; Kai, Joe

    2013-09-01

    Recent reforms, which change incentive and accountability structures in the English National Health Service, can be conceptualised as trying to shift the dominant institutional logic in the field of primary medical care (general medical practice) away from medical professionalism towards a logic of "population based medicine". This paper draws on interviews with primary care doctors, conducted during 2007-2009 and 2011-2012. It contrasts the approach of active management of populations, in line with recent reforms with responses to patients with medically unexplained symptoms. Our data suggest that rather than one logic becoming dominant, different dimensions of organisational activity reflect different logics. Although some aspects of organisational life are relatively untouched by the reforms, this is not due to 'resistance' on the part of staff within these organisations to attempts to 'control' them. We suggest that a more helpful way of understanding the data is to see these different aspects of work as governed by different institutional logics. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Change in consumer sensitivity to electricity prices in response to retail deregulation: A panel empirical analysis of the residential demand for electricity in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakajima, Tadahiro; Hamori, Shigeyuki

    2010-01-01

    About ten years have passed since the deregulation of the U.S. retail electricity market, and it is now generally accepted that the available data is adequate to quantitatively assess and compare conditions before and after deregulation. This study, therefore, estimates the changes in price elasticity in the residential electricity market to examine the changes, if any, in household sensitivity (as a result of retail electricity market deregulation policies) to residential electricity rates. Specifically, six types of panel data are prepared, based on three cross-sections-all states (except for Alaska and Hawaii) and the District of Columbia, deregulated states, and non-deregulated states-and two time series-the period before deregulation and the period after deregulation. The panel empirical analysis techniques are used to determine whether or not the variables are stationary, and to estimate price elasticity. We find that there is no substantial difference in the price elasticity between deregulated and non-deregulated states for both periods-before deregulation and after deregulation. Thus, it can be said that the deregulation of the retail electricity market has not made consumers more sensitive to electricity rates and that retail deregulation policies are not the cause of price elasticity differences between deregulated and non-deregulated states.

  2. Change in consumer sensitivity to electricity prices in response to retail deregulation. A panel empirical analysis of the residential demand for electricity in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakajima, Tadahiro [The Kansai Electric Power Company, Incorporated, 6-16, Nakanoshima 3-chome, Kita-Ku, Osaka 530-8270 (Japan); Hamori, Shigeyuki [Faculty of Economics, Kobe University 2-1, Rokkodai, Nada-Ku, Kobe 657-8501 (Japan)

    2010-05-15

    About ten years have passed since the deregulation of the U.S. retail electricity market, and it is now generally accepted that the available data is adequate to quantitatively assess and compare conditions before and after deregulation. This study, therefore, estimates the changes in price elasticity in the residential electricity market to examine the changes, if any, in household sensitivity (as a result of retail electricity market deregulation policies) to residential electricity rates. Specifically, six types of panel data are prepared, based on three cross-sections - all states (except for Alaska and Hawaii) and the District of Columbia, deregulated states, and non-deregulated states - and two time series - the period before deregulation and the period after deregulation. The panel empirical analysis techniques are used to determine whether or not the variables are stationary, and to estimate price elasticity. We find that there is no substantial difference in the price elasticity between deregulated and non-deregulated states for both periods - before deregulation and after deregulation. Thus, it can be said that the deregulation of the retail electricity market has not made consumers more sensitive to electricity rates and that retail deregulation policies are not the cause of price elasticity differences between deregulated and non-deregulated states. (author)

  3. Variation of contrast sensitivity after femtosecond laser in situ keratomileusis in changes environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Zhou

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available AIM: To evaluate the difference of contrast sensitivity(CSin photopic and scotopic environments in eyes with myopia and myopic astigmatism operated with femtosecond laser in situ keratomileusis(femto-LASIKand laser in situ keratomileusis(LASIK.METHODS: In a prospective study 160 myopia and myopic astigmatism patients' eyes were involved, which accepted femto-LASIK or LASIK in our hospital from January 2010 to February 2012. The myopia degree was -1.50~-10.00D, the astigmatism degree ≤-6.0D. Eighty eyes were treated with femto-LASIK in group A, and 80 eyes were treated with LASIK in group B, All patients in the treatment group completed the final 6mo of follow-up. The uncorrected visual acuity(UCVAand the best spectacle-corrected visual acuity(BSCVA, objective and manifest refractions, results of slit-lamp examination, the side effects, intraocular pressure, corneal topography, CS in photopic and scotopic environments were noted.RESULTS: All of operations on 160 cases were successful without severe complication after 6 mo follow-up. CS of femto-LASIK group(group Aat each spatial frequency environment were higher than that of LASIK group(group B. In group A, after 1mo the photopic CS, after 3mo of scotopic CS recovered to the preoperative level, 6mo after surgery improved than before the operation. In group B, after 3mo photopic CS to the preoperative level, scotopic CS at 6mo after operation was still not recovered to the preoperative level.CONCLUSION:Femto-LASIK for correction of myopia and myopic astigmatism, in improving the postoperative contrast sensitivity under shade environment has more advantages than LASIK.

  4. Training general practitioners in behavior change counseling to improve asthma medication adherence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broers, Sandra; Smets, Ellen; Bindels, Patrick; Bennebroek Evertsz', Floor; Calff, Mart; de Haes, Hanneke

    2005-01-01

    Objective: Adherence to asthma medication regimens is problematic in general practice. We developed and evaluated a communication training for general practitioners (GPs) to help them address medication adherence during routine consultations. This paper describes the development of the training and

  5. 75 FR 8925 - Pressure Sensitive Plastic Tape from Italy: Preliminary Results of Antidumping Duty Changed...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-26

    ... including, but not limited to: (1) management; (2) production facilities; (3) supplier relationships; and (4... to changes in management, production, suppliers, and customers that occurred after Evotape S.p.A... maintained their top supplier and customer relationships. Evotape Packaging added two products to its product...

  6. Tree cover in Central Africa: determinants and sensitivity under contrasted scenarios of global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleman, Julie C; Blarquez, Olivier; Gourlet-Fleury, Sylvie; Bremond, Laurent; Favier, Charly

    2017-01-30

    Tree cover is a key variable for ecosystem functioning, and is widely used to study tropical ecosystems. But its determinants and their relative importance are still a matter of debate, especially because most regional and global analyses have not considered the influence of agricultural practices. More information is urgently needed regarding how human practices influence vegetation structure. Here we focused in Central Africa, a region still subjected to traditional agricultural practices with a clear vegetation gradient. Using remote sensing data and global databases, we calibrated a Random Forest model to correlatively link tree cover with climatic, edaphic, fire and agricultural practices data. We showed that annual rainfall and accumulated water deficit were the main drivers of the distribution of tree cover and vegetation classes (defined by the modes of tree cover density), but agricultural practices, especially pastoralism, were also important in determining tree cover. We simulated future tree cover with our model using different scenarios of climate and land-use (agriculture and population) changes. Our simulations suggest that tree cover may respond differently regarding the type of scenarios, but land-use change was an important driver of vegetation change even able to counterbalance the effect of climate change in Central Africa.

  7. The sensitivity of wet and dry tropical forests to climate change in Bolivia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seiler, C.; Hutjes, R.W.A.; Kruijt, B.; Hickler, T.

    2015-01-01

    Bolivia's forests contribute to the global carbon and water cycle, as well as to global biodiversity. The survival of these forests may be at risk due to climate change. To explore the associated mechanisms and uncertainties, a regionally adapted dynamic vegetation model was implemented for the

  8. Sensitivity of burned area in Europe to climate change, atmospheric CO2 levels, and demography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Minchao; Knorr, Wolfgang; Thonicke, Kirsten

    2015-01-01

    model. Applying a range of future projections that combine different scenarios for climate changes, enhanced CO2 concentrations, and population growth, we investigated the individual and combined effects of these drivers on the total area and regions affected by fire in the 21st century. The two models...

  9. Capturing Collaborative Challenges: Designing Complexity-Sensitive Theories of Change for Cross-Sector Partnerships

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.J.M. van Tulder (Rob); Keen, N. (Nienke)

    2018-01-01

    textabstractSystems change requires complex interventions. Cross-sector partnerships (CSPs) face the daunting task of addressing complex societal problems by aligning different backgrounds, values, ideas and resources. A major challenge for CSPs is how to link the type of partnership to the

  10. Change of Dye Bath for Sensitisation of Nanocrystalline TiO Films: Enhances Performance of Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malapaka Chandrasekharam

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The photovoltaic performance of the heteroleptic H102 and HRD2 sensitizers was measured in DSSC and compared with that of reference N719 under similar fabrication and evaluation conditions. The Dye-Sensitised TiO2 electrodes were prepared by staining the electrodes in ethanol bath and 1/1 v/v acetonitrile/tert-butanol (binary liquid mixture bath separately and the DSSCs based on these sensitizers show that the change of dye bath from ethanol to the binary liquid mixture enhances the photocurrent action spectrum and solar-to-electricity conversion efficiencies, (η. Using ethanol for sensitisation of TiO2 electrodes, the efficiencies obtained for H102, HRD2 and N719 are 4.31%, 4.62%, and 5.46%, respectively, while in binary liquid mixture bath, the corresponding values are enhanced to 5.89%, 4.87%, and 7.23%, respectively, under comparable conditions.

  11. Heart-rate sensitive optical coherence angiography for measuring vascular changes due to posttraumatic brain injury in mice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tremoleda, Jordi L.; Alvarez, Karl; Aden, Abdirahman; Donnan, Robert; Michael-Titus, Adina T.; Tomlins, Peter H.

    2017-12-01

    Traumatic brain injury (TBI) results in direct vascular disruption, triggering edema, and reduction in cerebral blood flow. Therefore, understanding the pathophysiology of brain microcirculation following TBI is important for the development of effective therapies. Optical coherence angiography (OCA) is a promising tool for evaluating TBI in rodent models. We develop an approach to OCA that uses the heart-rate frequency to discriminate between static tissue and vasculature. This method operates on intensity data and is therefore not phase sensitive. Furthermore, it does not require spatial overlap of voxels and thus can be applied to pre-existing datasets for which oversampling may not have been explicitly considered. Heart-rate sensitive OCA was developed for dynamic assessment of mouse microvasculature post-TBI. Results show changes occurring at 5-min intervals within the first 50 min of injury.

  12. Quantitative analysis on sensitive factors of runoff change in Fenhe watershed based on integration approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Deng; Jian, Shengqi; Wu, Zening; Zhang, Zhaoxi; Hu, Caihong

    2018-06-01

    The runoff of the Fenhe River flowed into the Yellow River (RRY) is reducing significantly due to the influence of climate change and human activities. It is generating bad situation of shortage of water resources and led to the deterioration of ecological environment of Shanxi Province. At the same time, the reduction in RRY causes the runoff reduction in Yellow River and exacerbated the water resources shortage of the middle area of the Yellow River. Therefore, it is important to alleviate water shortage and develop the soil and water conservation measurements and regional water policy by analyzing the influence of human activities and climate change on the RRY. The existing study quantified the reduction in amount of RRY which caused by human activities and climate change using statistical methods and watershed hydrological model. The main results of the study were as follow: Using hydrological variation diagnosis system, the variation characteristics of long time series of measured annual runoff were analyzed in Hejin station that is the Fenhe River control station. The results showed that the runoff of Fenhe River run into Yellow River declined year by year, in 1971, fell the most obviously. The impact of LUCC on runoff was calculated using the method of area ratio in the Fenhe River basin. Human activities were major factor in the reduction of RRY than the climate change, contributed 83.09 % of the total reduction in RRY, Groundwater exploitation gave the greatest contribution to the decrease in RRY in the scope of several kinds of human activity (30.09 %), followed by coal mining (26.03 %), climate changed contributed 19.17 % of the total reduction of RRY, and the decrease of precipitation contributed 20.81 %. But the variation of air temperature and wind speed would result in the increase of the amount of RRY.

  13. Hydrologic and Isotopic Sensitivity of Alpine Lakes to Climate Change in the Medicine Bow Mountains, Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liefert, D. T.; Shuman, B. N.; Mercer, J.; Parsekian, A.; Williams, D. G.

    2017-12-01

    Climate reconstructions show that global average temperatures were 0.5°C higher than today during the mid-Holocene, falling well within projections for increases in global average temperature presented in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. Despite the consensus for the prediction of a warmer climate, however, it is unclear how snowmelt from high-elevation watersheds will be affected by such a change. Snowmelt contributes substantially to major rivers in the western United States, and much of the water flows through lakes in the highest-elevation watersheds. Our water balance models show that modern alpine lakes with seasonably unstable water levels can desiccate primarily through groundwater outflow, resulting in increased groundwater storage that likely sustains baseflow in mountain streams once snowmelt has subsided in late summer. However, contribution of freshwater from alpine lakes to streams may vary over time as changes in climate alters snowpack, rates of evaporation, and the abundance of snowmelt-fed lakes. As such, alpine lakes with seasonally unstable water levels today may have dried out entirely during the mid-Holocene warm period and may dry out in the future as temperatures increase. To investigate the response of alpine lakes to temperatures of the mid-Holocene, we collected 9 sediment cores from closed-basin alpine lakes in the Medicine Bow Mountains of southern Wyoming that lose most their volumes each summer. We use radiocarbon-dating of charcoal in basal sediments to determine lake formation age, abundance of conifer needles to infer relative forest cover, and a δ18O carbonate record to determine changes in the ratio of evaporation to precipitation in an alpine lake that existed throughout the Holocene. Warming likely changed watershed hydrology through a) decreased snowpack and earlier snowmelt, b) increased evaporation, and c) increased transpiration associated with expanded forest cover and longer growing seasons

  14. Research productivity in Australian general practice: what has changed since the 1990s?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Askew, Deborah A; Schluter, Philip J; Gunn, Jane M

    2008-07-21

    The Primary Health Care Research, Evaluation and Development (PHCRED) Strategy aims to improve Australia's output of high-quality research from primary care. We compared publication rates from general practice, medicine and surgery for the period 2000-2007, and found that general practice publications increased since 1990-1999 from 1.0 to 3.0 publications per 1000 general practitioners per year. However, general practice publication rates have plateaued since 2000, and represent only 2%-5% of the equivalent rates for medicine and surgery. This finding suggests that more time and sustained investment in PHCRED are essential to see tangible outputs from funded research in general practice.

  15. Sensitivity of Climate Change Detection and Attribution to the Characterization of Internal Climate Variability

    KAUST Repository

    Imbers, Jara

    2014-05-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\\'s (IPCC) "very likely" statement that anthropogenic emissions are affecting climate is based on a statistical detection and attribution methodology that strongly depends on the characterization of internal climate variability. In this paper, the authors test the robustness of this statement in the case of global mean surface air temperature, under different representations of such variability. The contributions of the different natural and anthropogenic forcings to the global mean surface air temperature response are computed using a box diffusion model. Representations of internal climate variability are explored using simple stochastic models that nevertheless span a representative range of plausible temporal autocorrelation structures, including the short-memory first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] process and the long-memory fractionally differencing process. The authors find that, independently of the representation chosen, the greenhouse gas signal remains statistically significant under the detection model employed in this paper. The results support the robustness of the IPCC detection and attribution statement for global mean temperature change under different characterizations of internal variability, but they also suggest that a wider variety of robustness tests, other than simple comparisons of residual variance, should be performed when dealing with other climate variables and/or different spatial scales. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.

  16. Spectroscopic sensitivity of real-time, rapidly induced phytochemical change in response to damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couture, John J; Serbin, Shawn P; Townsend, Philip A

    2013-04-01

    An ecological consequence of plant-herbivore interactions is the phytochemical induction of defenses in response to insect damage. Here, we used reflectance spectroscopy to characterize the foliar induction profile of cardenolides in Asclepias syriaca in response to damage, tracked in vivo changes and examined the influence of multiple plant traits on cardenolide concentrations. Foliar cardenolide concentrations were measured at specific time points following damage to capture their induction profile. Partial least-squares regression (PLSR) modeling was employed to calibrate cardenolide concentrations to reflectance spectroscopy. In addition, subsets of plants were either repeatedly sampled to track in vivo changes or modified to reduce latex flow to damaged areas. Cardenolide concentrations and the induction profile of A. syriaca were well predicted using models derived from reflectance spectroscopy, and this held true for repeatedly sampled plants. Correlations between cardenolides and other foliar-related variables were weak or not significant. Plant modification for latex reduction inhibited an induced cardenolide response. Our findings show that reflectance spectroscopy can characterize rapid phytochemical changes in vivo. We used reflectance spectroscopy to identify the mechanisms behind the production of plant secondary metabolites, simultaneously characterizing multiple foliar constituents. In this case, cardenolide induction appears to be largely driven by enhanced latex delivery to leaves following damage. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

  17. Projected Crop Production under Regional Climate Change Using Scenario Data and Modeling: Sensitivity to Chosen Sowing Date and Cultivar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sulin Tao

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available A sensitivity analysis of the responses of crops to the chosen production adaptation options under regional climate change was conducted in this study. Projections of winter wheat production for different sowing dates and cultivars were estimated for a major economic and agricultural province of China from 2021 to 2080 using the World Food Study model (WOFOST under representative concentration pathways (RCPs scenarios. A modeling chain was established and a correction method was proposed to reduce the bias of the resulting model-simulated climate data. The results indicated that adjusting the sowing dates and cultivars could mitigate the influences of climate change on winter wheat production in Jinagsu. The yield gains were projected from the chosen sowing date and cultivar. The following actions are recommended to ensure high and stable yields under future climate changes: (i advance the latest sowing date in some areas of northern Jiangsu; and (ii use heat-tolerant or heat-tolerant and drought-resistant varieties in most areas of Jiangsu rather than the currently used cultivar. Fewer of the common negative effects of using a single climate model occurred when using the sensitivity analysis because our bias correction method was effective for scenario data and because the WOFOST performed well for Jiangsu after calibration.

  18. An investigation of the sensitivity of a land surface model to climate change using a reduced form model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lynch, A.H.; McIlwaine, S. [PAOS/CIRES, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Beringer, J. [Inst. of Arctic Biology, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks (United States); Bonan, G.B. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2001-05-01

    In an illustration of a model evaluation methodology, a multivariate reduced form model is developed to evaluate the sensitivity of a land surface model to changes in atmospheric forcing. The reduced form model is constructed in terms of a set of ten integrative response metrics, including the timing of spring snow melt, sensible and latent heat fluxes in summer, and soil temperature. The responses are evaluated as a function of a selected set of six atmospheric forcing perturbations which are varied simultaneously, and hence each may be thought of as a six-dimensional response surface. The sensitivities of the land surface model are interdependent and in some cases illustrate a physically plausible feedback process. The important predictors of land surface response in a changing climate are the atmospheric temperature and downwelling longwave radiation. Scenarios characterized by warming and drying produce a large relative response compared to warm, moist scenarios. The insensitivity of the model to increases in precipitation and atmospheric humidity is expected to change in applications to coupled models, since these parameters are also strongly implicated, through the representation of clouds, in the simulation of both longwave and shortwave radiation. (orig.)

  19. Identification of changes in the inorganic matrix of dye sensitized solar cells during preparation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graaf, Harald; Maedler, Carsten; Kehr, Mirko; Baumgaertel, Thomas [Institute of Physics, Chemnitz University of Technology, Reichenhainer Str. 70, 09126 Chemnitz (Germany); Oekermann, Torsten [Institute of Physical Chemistry and Electrochemistry, Leibniz University Hannover, 30167 Hannover (Germany)

    2009-12-15

    Nanoporous zinc oxide films can be prepared by electrochemical co-deposition with the dye eosin Y (EY) as template. A subsequent desorption of the dye with aqueous KOH is a key step for the increased efficiency of such dye sensitized solar cells (DSSC). In this contribution, the partial dissolving and reorganization of the zinc oxide film during the desorption step has been studied in detail by X-ray diffraction, Kelvin probe force microscopy, and atomic force microscopy (AFM) as well as scanning electron microscopy. It is found that the reorganization leads to an enhancement of crystal orientation and a reduction of the defect concentration at the surface of zinc oxide, being a possible reason for suppressed recombination of electrons in these films. Also, an increased defect concentration in ZnO was found when co-deposited with EY. For these co-deposited films, AFM investigations showed a coverage of the surface with dye aggregates. High resolution AFM investigations revealed the nanocrystalline and highly porous structure of the inorganic matrix after desorption of the dye. Photographs of the organic/inorganic hybrid thin film material were investigated in this study. Left side: film directly after deposition, right side: after desorption of the organic dye. (Abstract Copyright [2009], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

  20. Threshold sensitivity of shallow Arctic lakes and sublake permafrost to changing winter climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Grosse, Guido; Bondurant, Allen C.; Romanovksy, Vladimir E.; Hinkel, Kenneth M.; Parsekian, Andrew D.

    2016-01-01

    Interactions and feedbacks between abundant surface waters and permafrost fundamentally shape lowland Arctic landscapes. Sublake permafrost is maintained when the maximum ice thickness (MIT) exceeds lake depth and mean annual bed temperatures (MABTs) remain below freezing. However, declining MIT since the 1970s is likely causing talik development below shallow lakes. Here we show high-temperature sensitivity to winter ice growth at the water-sediment interface of shallow lakes based on year-round lake sensor data. Empirical model experiments suggest that shallow (1 m depth) lakes have warmed substantially over the last 30 years (2.4°C), with MABT above freezing 5 of the last 7 years. This is in comparison to slower rates of warming in deeper (3 m) lakes (0.9°C), with already well-developed taliks. Our findings indicate that permafrost below shallow lakes has already begun crossing a critical thawing threshold approximately 70 years prior to predicted terrestrial permafrost thaw in northern Alaska.

  1. Insulin-Sensitizer Effects of Fenugreek Seeds in Parallel with Changes in Plasma MCH Levels in Healthy Volunteers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita Kiss

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In developed, developing and low-income countries alike, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM is one of the most common chronic diseases, the severity of which is substantially a consequence of multiple organ complications that occur due to long-term progression of the disease before diagnosis and treatment. Despite enormous investment into the characterization of the disease, its long-term management remains problematic, with those afflicted enduring significant degradation in quality-of-life. Current research efforts into the etiology and pathogenesis of T2DM, are focused on defining aberrations in cellular physiology that result in development of insulin resistance and strategies for increasing insulin sensitivity, along with downstream effects on T2DM pathogenesis. Ongoing use of plant-derived naturally occurring materials to delay the onset of the disease or alleviate symptoms is viewed by clinicians as particularly desirable due to well-established efficacy and minimal toxicity of such preparations, along with generally lower per-patient costs, in comparison to many modern pharmaceuticals. A particularly attractive candidate in this respect, is fenugreek, a plant that has been used as a flavouring in human diet through recorded history. The present study assessed the insulin-sensitizing effect of fenugreek seeds in a cohort of human volunteers, and tested a hypothesis that melanin-concentrating hormone (MCH acts as a critical determinant of this effect. A test of the hypothesis was undertaken using a hyperinsulinemic euglycemic glucose clamp approach to assess insulin sensitivity in response to oral administration of a fenugreek seed preparation to healthy subjects. Outcomes of these evaluations demonstrated significant improvement in glucose tolerance, especially in patients with impaired glucose responses. Outcome data further suggested that fenugreek seed intake-mediated improvement in insulin sensitivity correlated with reduction in MCH

  2. Change in General Relativistic precession rates due to Lidov-Kozai oscillations in the Solar System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekhar, Aswin; Asher, David J.; Werner, Stephanie C.; Vaubaillon, Jeremie; Li, Gongjie

    2017-04-01

    permissible in nature. A real solar system body in this intermediate state is identified using compiled observational records from IAU-Minor Planet Center, Cometary Catalogue, IAU-Meteor Data Center and performing analytical plus numerical tests on them. This intermediate state brings up the interesting possibility of drastic changes in GR precession rates (at some points peaking to about 60 times that of Mercury's GR precession) during orbital evolution due to sungrazing and sun colliding phases induced by the LK mechanism, thus combining both these important effects in a unique and dynamically interesting way. Comet 96P/Machholz 1 stands out as the only real body identified (from our simulations) to be exhibiting these interesting traits, as well as inclination flips, in the near future. Both these phenomena complimenting and co-existing at the same time has interesting implications in the long term impact studies of small bodies in general.

  3. The desire and capability of Australian general practitioners to change their working hours.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman, Richard; Hall, Jane P

    2014-04-21

    To explore factors associated with general practitioners' desire to work less and their success in making that change. Waves 3 and 4 (conducted in 2010 and 2011) of a national longitudinal survey of Australian doctors in clinical practice (Medicine in Australia: Balancing Employment and Life). Of the broader group of medical practitioners in the survey, there were 3664 and 3436 GP completers in Waves 3 and 4, respectively. The association between the desire to reduce hours and doctor, job and geographic characteristics; the association between predictors of the capability to reduce hours and these same doctor, job and geographic characteristics. Over 40% of GPs stated a preference to reduce their working hours. Characteristics that predicted this preference were being middle-aged, being female, working ≥ 40 hours per week (all P working hours were being in excellent health, being satisfied or very satisfied with work (both P working hours, 26.8% successfully managed to do so in the subsequent year (where reduction was defined as reducing hours by at least 5 per week). Predictors of successfully reducing hours were being younger, female and working ≥ 40 hours per week (all P hours and their subsequent success in doing so. Declining working hours have contributed to the perceived shortage in GPs. Therefore, designing policies that address not just the absolute number of medical graduates but also their subsequent level of work may alleviate some of the pressures on the Australian primary health care system.

  4. As Certain as Debt and Taxes: Estimating the Tax Sensitivity of Leverage from Exogenous State Tax Changes

    OpenAIRE

    Florian Heider; Alexander Ljungqvist

    2012-01-01

    We use a natural experiment in the form of 121 staggered changes in corporate income tax rates across U.S. states to show that tax considerations are a first-order determinant of firms' capital structure choices. Over the period 1990-2011, firms increase long-term leverage by 104 basis points on average (or $32.5 million in extra debt) in response to an average tax increase of 131 basis points. Contrary to static trade-off theory, the tax sensitivity of leverage is asymmetric: firms do not re...

  5. Knowing the Damages is not Enough: The General Equilibrium Impacts of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Kalkuhl, Matthias; Edenhofer, Ottmar

    2016-01-01

    We show that economies may exhibit a strong endogenous macroeconomic adaptation response to climate change. If climate change induces a structural change to the more productive sector, economies can benefit from climate change though productivities in both sectors are reduced. If climate change causes structural shifts towards the less productive sector, damages are exacerbated by the intersectoral reallocation of labor and intertemporal reallocation of capital. We further assess impacts on l...

  6. Sensitivity of peak flow to the change of rainfall temporal pattern due to warmer climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fadhel, Sherien; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel; Han, Dawei

    2018-05-01

    The widely used design storms in urban drainage networks has different drawbacks. One of them is that the shape of the rainfall temporal pattern is fixed regardless of climate change. However, previous studies have shown that the temporal pattern may scale with temperature due to climate change, which consequently affects peak flow. Thus, in addition to the scaling of the rainfall volume, the scaling relationship for the rainfall temporal pattern with temperature needs to be investigated by deriving the scaling values for each fraction within storm events, which is lacking in many parts of the world including the UK. Therefore, this study analysed rainfall data from 28 gauges close to the study area with a 15-min resolution as well as the daily temperature data. It was found that, at warmer temperatures, the rainfall temporal pattern becomes less uniform, with more intensive peak rainfall during higher intensive times and weaker rainfall during less intensive times. This is the case for storms with and without seasonal separations. In addition, the scaling values for both the rainfall volume and the rainfall fractions (i.e. each segment of rainfall temporal pattern) for the summer season were found to be higher than the corresponding results for the winter season. Applying the derived scaling values for the temporal pattern of the summer season in a hydrodynamic sewer network model produced high percentage change of peak flow between the current and future climate. This study on the scaling of rainfall fractions is the first in the UK, and its findings are of importance to modellers and designers of sewer systems because it can provide more robust scenarios for flooding mitigation in urban areas.

  7. Sensitization and Disposition to Change Facing the Challenges of the New Educational Circumstances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Alfredo Miranda-Calderón

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This article is about the necessity of an up to date vision in teachers’ training. It starts with the latest studies and advances surrounding learning-along-life term. It presents a set of topics inspired in the contributions of new fields of study connected to learning. Such contributions, as neuroscience, should be considered in the decisions related to future teachers’ training, thus favoring the transformation of the pedagogical practice. Awareness and disposition to change are essential requirements for teacher trainers who will drive investigative processes and pedagogical proposals generation; all of this according to the new and dynamic knowledge society.

  8. Boreal mire carbon exchange: sensitivity to climate change and anthropogenic nitrogen and sulfur deposition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eriksson, Tobias

    2010-07-01

    Boreal peatlands are important long-term sinks of atmospheric carbon and in the same time the largest natural source of methane to the atmosphere. A changing climate as well as deposition of anthropogenically derived pollutants, such as nitrogen and sulfur, has the potential to affect the processes that control the carbon exchange in peatlands. Many of the biogeochemical responses to changed environmental conditions, such as changed plant community composition, are slow and therefore long-term studies are required. In this thesis I have investigated the long-term effects of nitrogen addition, sulfur addition and greenhouse enclosures on carbon exchange by using a field manipulation experiment in a boreal minerogenic, oligotrophic mire after 10-12 years of treatment. Treatment effects on CH{sub 4} emissions, gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Reco) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) were estimated from 1-2 seasons of chamber flux measurements. Treatment effects on potential CH{sub 4} production and oxidation were estimated in incubations of peat from different depth intervals. The effect of nitrogen deposition on carbon accumulation was evaluated in peat cores at different depth intervals. The long-term nitrogen additions have: shifted plant community composition from being dominated by Sphagnum to being dominated by sedges and dwarf shrubs; changed mire surface microtopography so that mean water table is closer to the surface in plots with high nitrogen; increased CH{sub 4} production and emission; increased Reco slightly but have not affected GPP or NEE; reduced the peat height increment, but increased both peat bulk density and carbon content, leading to an unchanged carbon accumulation. The long-term sulfur additions have not reduced CH{sub 4} emissions, only slightly reduced CH{sub 4} production and did not have any effect on the CO{sub 2} carbon exchange. The greenhouse treatment, manifested in increased air and soil temperatures, reduced

  9. Changes in Functional Connectivity Associated with Direct Training and Generalization Effects of a Theory-Based Generative Naming Treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swathi Kiran

    2014-04-01

    Nine PWA improved on the trained abstract words; seven PWA also showed generalization to concrete words in the same context-category. The region with the highest node degree in the trained abstract network across PWA was left inferior frontal gyrus pars triangularis (L IFGtri; while the highest node degree in the generalized concrete network was left precentral gyrus. Regions that showed increased connectivity for both training and generalization included L IFGtri, right middle frontal gyrus (MFG, and bilateral angular gyrus. Regions that showed increased connectivity regardless of whether or not treatment was given and whether or not treatment was successful included left MFG and bilateral superior frontal gyrus. Additionally, PWA who generalized showed more left than right hemisphere changes in both abstract and concrete networks; while PWA who improved on the trained abstract words, but did not generalize to concrete words showed more left than right hemisphere changes for the abstract network, but more right than left hemisphere changes for the concrete network. These results suggest that (a direct training and generalization are tapping into similar neural mechanisms, and (b changes in the left hemisphere coincide with better treatment outcomes.

  10. GPs' views of health policy changes: a qualitative 'netnography' study of UK general practice online magazine commentary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elvey, Rebecca; Voorhees, Jennifer; Bailey, Simon; Burns, Taylor; Hodgson, Damian

    2018-06-01

    Shifts in health policy since 2010 have brought major structural changes to the English NHS, with government stating intentions to increase GPs' autonomy and improve access to care. Meanwhile, GPs' levels of job satisfaction are low, while stress levels are high. PulseToday is a popular UK general practice online magazine that provides a key discussion forum on news relevant to general practice. To analyse readers' reactions to news stories about health policy changes published in an online general practice magazine. A qualitative 'netnography' was undertaken of readers' comments to PulseToday. METHOD: A sample of readers' comments on articles published in PulseToday was collated and subjected to thematic analysis. Around 300 comments on articles published between January 2012 and March 2016 were included in the analysis, using 'access to care' as a tracer theme. Concern about the demand and strain on general practice was perhaps to be expected. However, analysis revealed various dimensions to this concern: GPs' underlying feelings about their work and place in the NHS; constraints to GPs' control of their own working practices; a perceived loss of respect for the role of GP; and disappointment with representative bodies and GP leadership. This study shows a complex mix of resistance and resignation in general practice about the changing character of GPs' roles. This ambivalence deserves further attention because it could potentially shape responses to further change in primary care in ways that are as yet unknown. © British Journal of General Practice 2018.

  11. Sensitivity of Climate Change Detection and Attribution to the Characterization of Internal Climate Variability

    KAUST Repository

    Imbers, Jara; Lopez, Ana; Huntingford, Chris; Allen, Myles

    2014-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) "very likely" statement that anthropogenic emissions are affecting climate is based on a statistical detection and attribution methodology that strongly depends on the characterization of internal climate variability. In this paper, the authors test the robustness of this statement in the case of global mean surface air temperature, under different representations of such variability. The contributions of the different natural and anthropogenic forcings to the global mean surface air temperature response are computed using a box diffusion model. Representations of internal climate variability are explored using simple stochastic models that nevertheless span a representative range of plausible temporal autocorrelation structures, including the short-memory first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] process and the long-memory fractionally differencing process. The authors find that, independently of the representation chosen, the greenhouse gas signal remains statistically significant under the detection model employed in this paper. The results support the robustness of the IPCC detection and attribution statement for global mean temperature change under different characterizations of internal variability, but they also suggest that a wider variety of robustness tests, other than simple comparisons of residual variance, should be performed when dealing with other climate variables and/or different spatial scales. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.

  12. Changes in the vibration sensitivity and pressure pain thresholds in patients with burning mouth syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Natália dos Reis; Janini, Maria Elisa Rangel

    2018-01-01

    Objective To investigate the presence of changes in vibration detection and pressure pain threshold in patients with burning-mouth syndrome (BMS). Design of the study Case-control study. The sample was composed of 30 volunteers, 15 with BMS and 15 in the control group. The pressure-pain threshold (PPT) and vibration-detection threshold (VDT) were examined. The clinical evaluation was complemented with the McGill Pain Questionnaire (MPQ), Douleur Neuropathique 4 (DN4) and Beck Depression and Anxiety Inventories (BDI and BAI, respectively). Results BMS subjects showed a statistically significant higher PPT in the tongue (p = 0.002), right (p = 0.001) and left (p = 0.004) face, and a significant reduction of the VDT in the tongue (p = 0.013) and right face (p = 0.030). Significant differences were also found when comparing the PPT and the VDT of distinct anatomical areas. However, a significant interaction (group × location) was only for the PPT. BMS subjects also showed significantly higher levels of depression (p = 0.01), as measured by the BDI, compared to controls; and a significant inverse correlation between the VDT in the left face and anxiety levels was detected. Conclusions The study of somatosensory changes in BMS and its correlations with the clinical features as well as the levels of anxiety and depression expands current understanding of the neuropathic origin and the possible contribution of psychogenic factors related to this disease. PMID:29782537

  13. Changes in the vibration sensitivity and pressure pain thresholds in patients with burning mouth syndrome.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brenda de Souza Moura

    Full Text Available To investigate the presence of changes in vibration detection and pressure pain threshold in patients with burning-mouth syndrome (BMS.Case-control study. The sample was composed of 30 volunteers, 15 with BMS and 15 in the control group. The pressure-pain threshold (PPT and vibration-detection threshold (VDT were examined. The clinical evaluation was complemented with the McGill Pain Questionnaire (MPQ, Douleur Neuropathique 4 (DN4 and Beck Depression and Anxiety Inventories (BDI and BAI, respectively.BMS subjects showed a statistically significant higher PPT in the tongue (p = 0.002, right (p = 0.001 and left (p = 0.004 face, and a significant reduction of the VDT in the tongue (p = 0.013 and right face (p = 0.030. Significant differences were also found when comparing the PPT and the VDT of distinct anatomical areas. However, a significant interaction (group × location was only for the PPT. BMS subjects also showed significantly higher levels of depression (p = 0.01, as measured by the BDI, compared to controls; and a significant inverse correlation between the VDT in the left face and anxiety levels was detected.The study of somatosensory changes in BMS and its correlations with the clinical features as well as the levels of anxiety and depression expands current understanding of the neuropathic origin and the possible contribution of psychogenic factors related to this disease.

  14. Chemical cues from fish heighten visual sensitivity in larval crabs through changes in photoreceptor structure and function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charpentier, Corie L; Cohen, Jonathan H

    2015-11-01

    Several predator avoidance strategies in zooplankton rely on the use of light to control vertical position in the water column. Although light is the primary cue for such photobehavior, predator chemical cues or kairomones increase swimming responses to light. We currently lack a mechanistic understanding for how zooplankton integrate visual and chemical cues to mediate phenotypic plasticity in defensive photobehavior. In marine systems, kairomones are thought to be amino sugar degradation products of fish body mucus. Here, we demonstrate that increasing concentrations of fish kairomones heightened sensitivity of light-mediated swimming behavior for two larval crab species (Rhithropanopeus harrisii and Hemigrapsus sanguineus). Consistent with these behavioral results, we report increased visual sensitivity at the retinal level in larval crab eyes directly following acute (1-3 h) kairomone exposure, as evidenced electrophysiologically from V-log I curves and morphologically from wider, shorter rhabdoms. The observed increases in visual sensitivity do not correspond with a decline in temporal resolution, because latency in electrophysiological responses actually increased after kairomone exposure. Collectively, these data suggest that phenotypic plasticity in larval crab photobehavior is achieved, at least in part, through rapid changes in photoreceptor structure and function. © 2015. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  15. Study on the sensitivity of Self-Powered Neutron Detectors (SPND) and its change due to burn-up

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, Gyuseong; Lee, Wanno; Yoon, Jeong-Hyoun.

    1996-01-01

    Self-Powered Neutron Detectors (SPND) are currently used to estimate the power generation distribution and fuel burn-up in several nuclear power reactors in Korea. While they have several advantages such as small size, low cost, and relatively simple electronics required in conjunction with its usage, it has some intrinsic problems of the low level of output current, a slow response time, the rapid change of sensitivity which makes it difficult to use for a long term. In this paper, Monte Carlo simulation was accomplished to calculate the escape probability as a function of the birth position for the typical geometry of rhodium-based SPNDs. Using the simulation result, the burn-up profile of rhodium number density and the neutron sensitivity is calculated as a function of burn-up time in the reactor. The sensitivity of the SPND decreases non-linearly due to the high absorption cross-section and the non-uniform burn-up of rhodium in the emitter rod. The method used here can be applied to the analysis of other types of SPNDs and will be useful in the optimum design of new SPNDs for long-term usage. (author)

  16. Beyond exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity: A response based ecological framework to assess species climate change vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortini, Lucas B.; Schubert, Olivia

    2017-01-01

    As the impacts of global climate change on species are increasingly evident, there is a clear need to adapt conservation efforts worldwide. Species vulnerability assessments (VAs) are increasingly used to summarize all relevant information to determine a species’ potential vulnerability to climate change and are frequently the first step in informing climate adaptation efforts. VAs commonly integrate multiple sources of information by utilizing a framework that distinguishes factors relevant to species exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. However, this framework was originally developed for human systems, and its use to evaluate species vulnerability has serious practical and theoretical limitations. By instead defining vulnerability as the degree to which a species is unable to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., toleration of projected changes, migration to new climate-compatible areas, enduring in microrefugia, and evolutionary adaptation), we can bring VAs into the realm of ecological science without applying borrowed abstract concepts that have consistently challenged species-centric research and management. This response-based framework to assess species vulnerability to climate change allows better integration of relevant ecological data and past research, yielding results with much clearer implications for conservation and research prioritization.

  17. Serum complement changes during double-blind food challenges in children with a history of food sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, M E; Guthrie, L A; Bock, S A

    1984-04-01

    Serum levels of C3, C4, factor B, properdin, total hemolytic complement and alternative-pathway hemolytic activity were measured before and after double-blind food challenge in 23 children with impressive histories of adverse reactions to foods. The 23 subjects had 11 positive food challenges and 12 negative food challenges. Nine patients with reagin-mediated positive food challenges showed increases in all six complement assays after double-blind food challenge, while the group with negative food challenges showed decreases in five of the six assays. The difference between the two groups for complement changes after double-blind food challenge was significant only for the alternative-pathway assay. Individual subject analysis revealed markedly heterogeneous changes in direction and magnitude within both groups for all complement assays. Therefore, it is concluded that measurement of serum complement levels is not a useful test for the clinical evaluation of a patient with suspected food sensitivity.

  18. Sensitivity of Calanus spp. copepods to environmental changes in the North Sea using life-stage structured models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maar, Marie; Møller, Eva Friis; Gürkan, Zeren

    2013-01-01

    Sea because it allows them to utilize the spring bloom more efficiently and independently of the timing and amount of oceanic inflow. The combination of lower temperatures, higher overwintering and oceanic inflow simulating the situation in the 1960s largely favoured C. finmarchicus and their relative......, overwintering and oceanic inflow in the North Sea. Life-stage structured models are validated against CPR data and vertical distributions north of the Dogger Bank in the North Sea for the reference year 2005. The model shows that 1) ± 2°C changes from the current level mainly influence the seasonal patterns...... and not the relative occurrence of the two species, 2) changes due to oceanic inflow mainly appeared in the northern and southern part of the North Sea connected to the NE Atlantic and not in the central part and 3) the abundance of Calanus species were very sensitive to the degree of overwintering within the North...

  19. Temporal viscosity modulations driven by a pH sensitive polymer coupled to a pH-changing chemical reaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escala, D M; Muñuzuri, A P; De Wit, A; Carballido-Landeira, J

    2017-05-17

    The Formaldehyde-Sulfite (FS) and the Formaldehyde-Sulfite-Gluconolactone (FSG) systems are examples of complex chemical reactions accompanied by well-controlled variations in pH. While the FS system exhibits a clock behavior, in the FSG reaction, this mechanism is coupled with the hydrolysis of the gluconolactone which gives the possibility to show large temporal oscillations of pH in an open reactor. In this work, we show how these reactive systems, due to their organic nature, can be coupled with pH sensitive polymers, particularly with polyacrylic acid (PAA) to trigger temporal changes of viscosity. We characterize this coupled reactive system showing the effects of changes in the initial concentrations of the polymer and in the chemical reagents on the induction time, the magnitude of the pH variations and the temporal modifications of the viscosity.

  20. LSENS: A General Chemical Kinetics and Sensitivity Analysis Code for homogeneous gas-phase reactions. Part 1: Theory and numerical solution procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radhakrishnan, Krishnan

    1994-01-01

    LSENS, the Lewis General Chemical Kinetics and Sensitivity Analysis Code, has been developed for solving complex, homogeneous, gas-phase chemical kinetics problems and contains sensitivity analysis for a variety of problems, including nonisothermal situations. This report is part 1 of a series of three reference publications that describe LENS, provide a detailed guide to its usage, and present many example problems. Part 1 derives the governing equations and describes the numerical solution procedures for the types of problems that can be solved. The accuracy and efficiency of LSENS are examined by means of various test problems, and comparisons with other methods and codes are presented. LSENS is a flexible, convenient, accurate, and efficient solver for chemical reaction problems such as static system; steady, one-dimensional, inviscid flow; reaction behind incident shock wave, including boundary layer correction; and perfectly stirred (highly backmixed) reactor. In addition, the chemical equilibrium state can be computed for the following assigned states: temperature and pressure, enthalpy and pressure, temperature and volume, and internal energy and volume. For static problems the code computes the sensitivity coefficients of the dependent variables and their temporal derivatives with respect to the initial values of the dependent variables and/or the three rate coefficient parameters of the chemical reactions.

  1. Strategy, leadership and change: the North York General Hospital transformation journey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adamson, Bonnie; Kwolek, Susan

    2008-01-01

    Improvements in the emergency department and general internal medicine will serve as a case study to examine how North York General Hospital cultural transformation efforts led to improvements in these departments, and why we believe this approach will enable the organization to sustain these improvements over time.

  2. Sensitivity and spin-up times of cohesive sediment transport models used to simulate bathymetric change: Chapter 31

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoellhamer, D.H.; Ganju, N.K.; Mineart, P.R.; Lionberger, M.A.; Kusuda, T.; Yamanishi, H.; Spearman, J.; Gailani, J. Z.

    2008-01-01

    Bathymetric change in tidal environments is modulated by watershed sediment yield, hydrodynamic processes, benthic composition, and anthropogenic activities. These multiple forcings combine to complicate simple prediction of bathymetric change; therefore, numerical models are necessary to simulate sediment transport. Errors arise from these simulations, due to inaccurate initial conditions and model parameters. We investigated the response of bathymetric change to initial conditions and model parameters with a simplified zero-dimensional cohesive sediment transport model, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic/sediment transport model, and a tidally averaged box model. The zero-dimensional model consists of a well-mixed control volume subjected to a semidiurnal tide, with a cohesive sediment bed. Typical cohesive sediment parameters were utilized for both the bed and suspended sediment. The model was run until equilibrium in terms of bathymetric change was reached, where equilibrium is defined as less than the rate of sea level rise in San Francisco Bay (2.17 mm/year). Using this state as the initial condition, model parameters were perturbed 10% to favor deposition, and the model was resumed. Perturbed parameters included, but were not limited to, maximum tidal current, erosion rate constant, and critical shear stress for erosion. Bathymetric change was most sensitive to maximum tidal current, with a 10% perturbation resulting in an additional 1.4 m of deposition over 10 years. Re-establishing equilibrium in this model required 14 years. The next most sensitive parameter was the critical shear stress for erosion; when increased 10%, an additional 0.56 m of sediment was deposited and 13 years were required to re-establish equilibrium. The two-dimensional hydrodynamic/sediment transport model was calibrated to suspended-sediment concentration, and despite robust solution of hydrodynamic conditions it was unable to accurately hindcast bathymetric change. The tidally averaged

  3. Associations between Grawe's general mechanisms of change and Young's early maladaptive schemas in psychotherapy research: a comparative study of change processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mander, Johannes V; Jacob, Gitta A; Götz, Lea; Sammet, Isa; Zipfel, Stephan; Teufel, Martin

    2015-01-01

    The study aimed at analyzing associations between Grawe's general mechanisms of change and Young's early maladaptive schemas (EMS). Therefore, 98 patients completed the Scale for the Multiperspective Assessment of General Change Mechanisms in Psychotherapy (SACiP), the Young Shema Questionnaire-Short Form Revised (YSQ S3R), and diverse outcome measures at the beginning and end of treatment. Our results are important for clinical applications, as we demonstrated strong predictive effects of change mechanisms on schema domains using regression analyses and cross-lagged panel models. Resource activation experiences seem to be especially crucial in fostering alterations in EMS, as this change mechanism demonstrated significant associations with several schema domains. Future research should investigate these aspects in more detail using observer-based micro-process analyses.

  4. Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vichi, Marcello; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Manzini, Elisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Fogli, Pier Giuseppe [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Alessandri, Andrea [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); ENEA, Rome (Italy); Patara, Lavinia [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), Kiel (Germany); Scoccimarro, Enrico [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

    2011-11-15

    Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric ''target'' concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the

  5. The behaviour of long-lived redox sensitive radionuclides in soil-plant system during the process of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Semioshkina, N.; Staudt, C.; Kaiser, C. [Helmhotz Zetrum Muenchen (Germany); Proehl, G. [International Atomic Energy Agency - IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)); Noseck, U.; Fahrenholz, C. [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit - GRS (Germany)

    2014-07-01

    One important aspect of climate changes for the long-term safety assessment of radioactive waste repositories is its impact on exposure pathways for humans in the future, which are dependent on the environmental characteristics mentioned. It is conceivable that effects or processes occurring during climate changes lead to an increased accumulation and/or release of radionuclides in the biosphere resulting in higher doses compared to that calculated for discrete climate states. In order to shed light on this question key processes are identified which might lead to such an increased accumulation and/or release of radionuclides. The transition from one climate to another can cause changes in the physicochemical composition of radionuclides: some of them may become more available for plant uptake and due to this, their activity concentration in the plants increases. Other radionuclides maybe stronger bound to soil and their activity concentration in plants decreases. Such changes might also cause remobilization of radionuclides from localised areas with contaminated sediments, their re-suspension and transfer to the surrounding areas. A suitable illustration of the processes related to the changes of the redox potential is the examination of a dry lake or fen bed for agricultural purposes as pasture or ameliorated pasture. In these cases the accumulation of radionuclides in the lake or fen sediment is followed by their release and increasing mobility after agricultural processing of the dry bed of lake or fen. Ploughing of the soil leads to increased supply of oxygen to previous anoxic soil layers causing an increase in redox potential. The presented model describes a scenario, where the land is initially very humid and very low Eh-values cause high sorption and accumulation of radionuclides in soil particles. Then this land is dried out, the redox potential increases and redox sensitive radionuclides change their speciation and their behaviour. Such processes might

  6. THE SENSITIVITY OF THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT TO CHANGES IN THE CONCENTRATION OF GASES IN PLANETARY ATMOSPHERES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smadar Bressler

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available We present a radiative transfer model for Earth-Like-Planets (ELP. The model allows the assessment of the effect of a change in the concentration of an atmospheric component, especially a greenhouse gas (GHG, on the surface temperature of a planet. The model is based on the separation between the contribution of the short wavelength molecular absorption and the long wavelength one. A unique feature of the model is the condition of energy conservation at every point in the atmosphere. The radiative transfer equation is solved in the two stream approximation without assuming the existence of an LTE in any wavelength range. The model allows us to solve the Simpson paradox, whereby the greenhouse effect (GHE has no temperature limit. On the contrary, we show that the temperature saturates, and its value depends primarily on the distance of the planet from the central star. We also show how the relative humidity affects the surface temperature of a planet and explain why the effect is smaller than the one derived when the above assumptions are neglected.

  7. Stream Health Sensitivity to Landscape Changes due to Bioenergy Crops Expansion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nejadhashemi, A.; Einheuser, M. D.; Woznicki, S. A.

    2012-12-01

    Global demand for bioenergy has increased due to uncertainty in oil markets, environmental concerns, and expected increases in energy consumption worldwide. To develop a sustainable biofuel production strategy, the adverse environmental impacts of bioenergy crops expansion should be understood. To study the impact of bioenergy crops expansion on stream health, the adaptive neural-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was used to predict macroinvertebrate and fish stream health measures. The Hilsenhoff Biotic Index (HBI), Family Index of Biological Integrity (Family IBI), and Number of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera taxa (EPT taxa) were used as macroinvertebrate measures, while the Index of Biological Integrity (IBI) was used for fish. A high-resolution biophysical model built using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to obtain water quantity and quality variables for input into the ANFIS stream health predictive models. Twenty unique crop rotations were developed to examine impacts of bioenergy crops expansion on stream health in the Saginaw Bay basin. Traditional intensive row crops generated more pollution than current landuse conditions, while second-generation biofuel crops associated with less intensive agricultural activities resulted in water quality improvement. All three macroinvertebrate measures were negatively impacted during intensive row crop productions but improvement was predicted when producing perennial crops. However, the expansion of native grass, switchgrass, and miscanthus production resulted in reduced IBI relative to first generation row crops. This study demonstrates that ecosystem complexity requires examination of multiple stream health measures to avoid potential adverse impacts of landuse change on stream health.

  8. Long-Term Changes in Pain Sensitivity in an Animal Model of Social Anxiety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandra Berry

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Animal models with an eco-ethological relevance can help in identifying novel and reliable stress-related markers. To this end, 3-month-old C57BL/6J male mice were exposed to social defeat (SD stress for 10 days as this stressor shows good face and predictive validity for several models of human affective disorders including depression, social phobia and post-traumatic stress disorder. Social avoidance and pain threshold were assessed 24 h and 4 weeks after the end of SD stress, while corticosterone was assayed at the beginning and at the end of the stressful procedure (days 1 and 10. SD subjects were characterized by increased corticosterone levels (30 min following stress exposure, increased latency to approach the social target in the short-term as well as increased emotionality in the long-term. Moreover, an increase in nociceptive threshold (stress-induced analgesia was found both in the short-term and 4 weeks after the end of stress. These data indicate that the SD paradigm is able to induce emotional changes associated with a stressful/traumatic event. In addition, they indicate that variations in the nociceptive threshold might represent a physiological marker of both short- and long-term effects of stress.

  9. The time for doing is not the time for change: effects of general action and inaction goals on attitude retrieval and attitude change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albarracín, Dolores; Handley, Ian M

    2011-06-01

    Implicit in many informal and formal principles of psychological change is the understudied assumption that change requires either an active approach or an inactive approach. This issue was systematically investigated by comparing the effects of general action goals and general inaction goals on attitude change. As prior attitudes facilitate preparation for an upcoming persuasive message, general action goals were hypothesized to facilitate conscious retrieval of prior attitudes and therefore hinder attitude change to a greater extent than general inaction goals. Experiment 1 demonstrated that action primes (e.g., "go," "energy") yielded faster attitude report than inaction primes (e.g., "rest," "still") among participants who were forewarned of an upcoming persuasive message. Experiment 2 showed that the faster attitude report identified in Experiment 1 was localized on attitudes toward a message topic participants were prepared to receive. Experiments 3, 4, and 5 showed that, compared with inaction primes, action primes produced less attitude change and less argument scrutiny in response to a counterattitudinal message on a previously forewarned topic. Experiment 6 confirmed that the effects of the primes on attitude change were due to differential attitude retrieval. That is, when attitude expression was induced immediately after the primes, action and inaction goals produced similar amounts of attitude change. In contrast, when no attitude expression was induced after the prime, action goals produced less attitude change than inaction goals. Finally, Experiment 7 validated the assumption that these goal effects can be reduced or reversed when the goals have already been satisfied by an intervening task. 2011 APA, all rights reserved

  10. The Time for Doing is Not the Time for Change: Effects of General Action and Inaction Goals on Attitude Retrieval and Attitude Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albarracín, Dolores; Handley, Ian M.

    2011-01-01

    Implicit in many informal and formal principles of psychological change is the understudied assumption that change requires either an active approach or an inactive approach. This issue was systematically investigated by comparing the effects of general action goals and general inaction goals on attitude change. As prior attitudes facilitate preparation for an upcoming persuasive message, general action goals were hypothesized to facilitate conscious retrieval of prior attitudes and therefore hinder attitude change to a greater extent than general inaction goals. Experiment 1 demonstrated that action primes (e.g., “go,” “energy”) yielded faster attitude report than inaction primes (e.g., “rest,” “still”) among participants who were forewarned of an upcoming persuasive message. Experiment 2 showed that the faster attitude report identified in Experiment 1 was localized on attitudes towards a message topic participants were prepared to receive. Experiments 3, 4, and 5 showed that, compared to inaction primes, action primes produced less attitude change and less argument scrutiny in response to a counterattitudinal message on a previously forewarned topic. Experiment 6 confirmed that the effects of the primes on attitude change were due to differential attitude retrieval. That is, when attitude expression was induced immediately after the primes, action and inaction goals produced similar amounts of attitude change. In contrast, when no attitude expression was induced after the prime, action goals produced less attitude change than inaction goals. Finally, Experiment 7 validated the assumption that these goal effects can be reduced or reversed when the goals have already been satisfied by an intervening task. PMID:21639651

  11. Global-scale projection and its sensitivity analysis of the health burden attributable to childhood undernutrition under the latest scenario framework for climate change research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishida, Hiroyuki; Kobayashi, Shota; Kanae, Shinjiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko; Shin, Yonghee; Tanaka, Akemi; Honda, Yasushi

    2014-01-01

    This study assessed the health burden attributable to childhood underweight through 2050 focusing on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by considering the latest scenarios for climate change studies (representative concentration pathways and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)) and conducting sensitivity analysis. A regression model for estimating DALYs attributable to childhood underweight (DAtU) was developed using the relationship between DAtU and childhood stunting. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model, a crop model, and two regression models to assess the future health burden. We found that (i) world total DAtU decreases from 2005 by 28 ∼ 63% in 2050 depending on the socioeconomic scenarios. Per capita DAtU also decreases in all regions under either scenario in 2050, but the decreases vary significantly by regions and scenarios. (ii) The impact of climate change is relatively small in the framework of this study but, on the other hand, socioeconomic conditions have a great impact on the future health burden. (iii) Parameter uncertainty of the regression models is the second largest factor on uncertainty of the result following the changes in socioeconomic condition, and uncertainty derived from the difference in global circulation models is the smallest in the framework of this study. (letters)

  12. Fractalkine receptor (CX3CR1 deficiency sensitizes mice to the behavioral changes induced by lipopolysaccharide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelley Keith W

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Interactions between fractalkine (CX3CL1 and fractalkine receptor (CX3CR1 regulate microglial activation in the CNS. Recent findings indicate that age-associated impairments in CX3CL1 and CX3CR1 are directly associated with exaggerated microglial activation and an impaired recovery from sickness behavior after peripheral injection of lipopolysaccharide (LPS. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine the extent to which an acute LPS injection causes amplified and prolonged microglial activation and behavioral deficits in CX3CR1-deficient mice (CX3CR1-/-. Methods CX3CR1-/- mice or control heterozygote mice (CX3CR1+/- were injected with LPS (0.5 mg/kg i.p. or saline and behavior (i.e., sickness and depression-like behavior, microglial activation, and markers of tryptophan metabolism were determined. All data were analyzed using Statistical Analysis Systems General Linear Model procedures and were subjected to one-, two-, or three-way ANOVA to determine significant main effects and interactions. Results LPS injection caused a prolonged duration of social withdrawal in CX3CR1-/- mice compared to control mice. This extended social withdrawal was associated with enhanced mRNA expression of IL-1β, indolamine 2,3-dioxygenase (IDO and kynurenine monooxygenase (KMO in microglia 4 h after LPS. Moreover, elevated expression of IL-1β and CD14 was still detected in microglia of CX3CR1-/- mice 24 h after LPS. There was also increased turnover of tryptophan, serotonin, and dopamine in the brain 24 h after LPS, but these increases were independent of CX3CR1 expression. When submitted to the tail suspension test 48 and 72 h after LPS, an increased duration of immobility was evident only in CX3CR1-/- mice. This depression-like behavior in CX3CR1-/- mice was associated with a persistent activated microglial phenotype in the hippocampus and prefrontal cortex. Conclusions Taken together, these data indicate that a deficiency of CX3CR1

  13. Fractalkine receptor (CX3CR1) deficiency sensitizes mice to the behavioral changes induced by lipopolysaccharide

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Background Interactions between fractalkine (CX3CL1) and fractalkine receptor (CX3CR1) regulate microglial activation in the CNS. Recent findings indicate that age-associated impairments in CX3CL1 and CX3CR1 are directly associated with exaggerated microglial activation and an impaired recovery from sickness behavior after peripheral injection of lipopolysaccharide (LPS). Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine the extent to which an acute LPS injection causes amplified and prolonged microglial activation and behavioral deficits in CX3CR1-deficient mice (CX3CR1-/-). Methods CX3CR1-/- mice or control heterozygote mice (CX3CR1+/-) were injected with LPS (0.5 mg/kg i.p.) or saline and behavior (i.e., sickness and depression-like behavior), microglial activation, and markers of tryptophan metabolism were determined. All data were analyzed using Statistical Analysis Systems General Linear Model procedures and were subjected to one-, two-, or three-way ANOVA to determine significant main effects and interactions. Results LPS injection caused a prolonged duration of social withdrawal in CX3CR1-/- mice compared to control mice. This extended social withdrawal was associated with enhanced mRNA expression of IL-1β, indolamine 2,3-dioxygenase (IDO) and kynurenine monooxygenase (KMO) in microglia 4 h after LPS. Moreover, elevated expression of IL-1β and CD14 was still detected in microglia of CX3CR1-/- mice 24 h after LPS. There was also increased turnover of tryptophan, serotonin, and dopamine in the brain 24 h after LPS, but these increases were independent of CX3CR1 expression. When submitted to the tail suspension test 48 and 72 h after LPS, an increased duration of immobility was evident only in CX3CR1-/- mice. This depression-like behavior in CX3CR1-/- mice was associated with a persistent activated microglial phenotype in the hippocampus and prefrontal cortex. Conclusions Taken together, these data indicate that a deficiency of CX3CR1 is permissive to

  14. Changes in pathology test ordering by early career general practitioners: a longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magin, Parker J; Tapley, Amanda; Morgan, Simon; Henderson, Kim; Holliday, Elizabeth G; Davey, Andrew R; Ball, Jean; Catzikiris, Nigel F; Mulquiney, Katie J; van Driel, Mieke L

    2017-07-17

    To assess the number of pathology tests ordered by general practice registrars during their first 18-24 months of clinical general practice. Longitudinal analysis of ten rounds of data collection (2010-2014) for the Registrar Clinical Encounters in Training (ReCEnT) study, an ongoing, multicentre, cohort study of general practice registrars in Australia. The principal analysis employed negative binomial regression in a generalised estimating equations framework (to account for repeated measures on registrars).Setting, participants: General practice registrars in training posts with five of 17 general practice regional training providers in five Australian states. The registrar participation rate was 96.4%. Number of pathology tests requested per consultation. The time unit for analysis was the registrar training term (the 6-month full-time equivalent component of clinical training); registrars contributed data for up to four training terms. 876 registrars contributed data for 114 584 consultations. The number of pathology tests requested increased by 11% (95% CI, 8-15%; P pathology test ordering by general practice registrars increased significantly during their first 2 years of clinical practice. This causes concerns about overtesting. As established general practitioners order fewer tests than registrars, test ordering may peak during late vocational training and early career practice. Registrars need support during this difficult period in the development of their clinical practice patterns.

  15. Proposal to change General Consideration 5 and Principle 2 of the International Code of Nomenclature of Prokaryotes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oren, Aharon; Garrity, George M

    2014-01-01

    A proposal is submitted to the ICSP to change the wording of General Consideration 5 of the International Code of Nomenclature of Prokaryotes (ICNP), deleting the words Schizophycetes, Cyanophyceae and Cyanobacteria from the groups of organisms whose nomenclature is covered by the Code. It is further proposed to change the terms Zoological Code and International Code of Botanical Nomenclature in General Consideration 5 and in Principle 2 to International Code of Zoological Nomenclature and International Code of Nomenclature for algae, fungi and plants, respectively.

  16. Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Posch

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically feasible reductions (MFR. Future climate (temperature and precipitation was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circulation models under two global scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: A2 and B2. The combinations resulting in the widest range of future changes were used for simulations, i.e., the A2 scenario results from ECHAM4/OPYC3 (highest predicted change and B2 results from HadAM3 (lowest predicted change. Future scenarios for catchment runoff were obtained from the Finnish watershed simulation and forecasting system. The potential influence of future changes in surface water organic carbon concentrations was also explored using simple empirical relationships based on temperature and sulphate deposition. Surprisingly, current emission reduction policies hardly show any future recovery; however, significant chemical recovery of soil and surface water from acidification was predicted under the MFR emission scenario. The direct influence of climate change (temperate and precipitation on recovery was negligible, as runoff hardly changed; greater precipitation is offset by increased evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. However, two exploratory empirical DOC models indicated that changes in sulphur deposition or temperature could have a confounding influence on the recovery of surface waters from acidification, and that the corresponding increases in DOC concentrations may offset the recovery in pH due to reductions in acidifying depositions.

  17. Subtle genetic changes enhance virulence of methicillin resistant and sensitive Staphylococcus aureus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hawes Alicia C

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Community acquired (CA methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA increasingly causes disease worldwide. USA300 has emerged as the predominant clone causing superficial and invasive infections in children and adults in the USA. Epidemiological studies suggest that USA300 is more virulent than other CA-MRSA. The genetic determinants that render virulence and dominance to USA300 remain unclear. Results We sequenced the genomes of two pediatric USA300 isolates: one CA-MRSA and one CA-methicillin susceptible (MSSA, isolated at Texas Children's Hospital in Houston. DNA sequencing was performed by Sanger dideoxy whole genome shotgun (WGS and 454 Life Sciences pyrosequencing strategies. The sequence of the USA300 MRSA strain was rigorously annotated. In USA300-MRSA 2658 chromosomal open reading frames were predicted and 3.1 and 27 kilobase (kb plasmids were identified. USA300-MSSA contained a 20 kb plasmid with some homology to the 27 kb plasmid found in USA300-MRSA. Two regions found in US300-MRSA were absent in USA300-MSSA. One of these carried the arginine deiminase operon that appears to have been acquired from S. epidermidis. The USA300 sequence was aligned with other sequenced S. aureus genomes and regions unique to USA300 MRSA were identified. Conclusion USA300-MRSA is highly similar to other MRSA strains based on whole genome alignments and gene content, indicating that the differences in pathogenesis are due to subtle changes rather than to large-scale acquisition of virulence factor genes. The USA300 Houston isolate differs from another sequenced USA300 strain isolate, derived from a patient in San Francisco, in plasmid content and a number of sequence polymorphisms. Such differences will provide new insights into the evolution of pathogens.

  18. Evaluation of the sensitivity of the mineralizable pool of soil organic matter to changes in temperature and moisture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulina, A. S.; Semenov, V. M.

    2015-08-01

    The sensitivity of the potentially mineralizable pool of soil organic matter (Cpm) to changes in temperature and moisture has been assessed from the temperature coefficient ( Q10) and the moisture coefficient ( W 10), which indicate how much the Cpm size changes, when the temperature changes by 10°C and the soil water content changes by 10 wt %, respectively. Samples of gray forest soil, podzolized chernozem, and dark chestnut soil taken from arable plots have been incubated at 8, 18, and 28°C and humidity of 10, 25, and 40 wt %. From the data on the production of C-CO2 by soil samples during incubation for 150 days, the content of Cpm has been calculated. It has been shown that, on average for the three soils, an increase in temperature accounts for 63% of the rise in the pool of potentially mineralizable organic matter, whereas an increase in moisture accounts for 8% of that rise. The temperature coefficients of the potentially mineralizable pool are 2.71 ± 0.64, 1.27 ± 0.20, and 1.85 ± 0.30 in ranges of 8-18, 18-28, and 8-28°C, respectively; the moisture coefficients are 1.19 ± 0.11, 1.09 ± 0.05, and 1.14 ± 0.06 in ranges of 10-25, 25-40, and 10-40 wt %, respectively. The easily mineralizable fraction (C1, k 1 > 0.1 days-1) of the active pool of soil organic matter is less sensitive to temperature than the hardly mineralizable fraction (C3, 0.01 > k 3 > 0.001 days-1); their Q 10 values are 0.91 ± 0.15 and 2.40 ± 0.31, respectively. On the contrary, the easily mineralizable fraction is more sensitive to moistening than the hardly mineralizable fraction: their W 10 values are 1.22 ± 0.06 and 1.03 ± 0.08, respectively. The intensification of mineralization with rising temperature and water content during a long-term incubation results in the exhausting of the active pool, which reduces the production of CO2 by the soils during the repeated incubation under similar conditions nonlimiting mineralization.

  19. The Influence of Climate Change on Atmospheric Deposition of Mercury in the Arctic—A Model Sensitivity Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Kaj M.; Christensen, Jesper H.; Brandt, Jørgen

    2015-01-01

    Mercury (Hg) is a global pollutant with adverse health effects on humans and wildlife. It is of special concern in the Arctic due to accumulation in the food web and exposure of the Arctic population through a rich marine diet. Climate change may alter the exposure of the Arctic population to Hg. We have investigated the effect of climate change on the atmospheric Hg transport to and deposition within the Arctic by making a sensitivity study of how the atmospheric chemistry-transport model Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) reacts to climate change forcing. The total deposition of Hg to the Arctic is 18% lower in the 2090s compared to the 1990s under the applied Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES-A1B) climate scenario. Asia is the major anthropogenic source area (25% of the deposition to the Arctic) followed by Europe (6%) and North America (5%), with the rest arising from the background concentration, and this is independent of the climate. DEHM predicts between a 6% increase (Status Quo scenario) and a 37% decrease (zero anthropogenic emissions scenario) in Hg deposition to the Arctic depending on the applied emission scenario, while the combined effect of future climate and emission changes results in up to 47% lower Hg deposition. PMID:26378551

  20. Proton MRS detects Metabolic Changes in Hormone Sensitive and Resistant Human Prostate Cancer Model CWR22 and CWR22r

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, H. Carl; Lupu, Mihaela; Kotedia, Khushali; Rosen, Neal; Solit, David; Koutcher, Jason A.

    2010-01-01

    17-Allylamino, 17-Demethoxygeldanamycin (17-AAG), an effective inhibitor of the heat shock protein hsp90, preferentially inhibiting tumor hsp90 compared to hsp90 from normal cells (1), has shown promising results against several cancers, including hormone resistant prostate cancer. Levels of several oncogenic proteins critical to tumor growth and progression, such as AR (androgen receptor) and HER2/neu, were reduced 4 hours post 17-AAG treatment. Post treatment metabolic changes have also been observed in several tumor cell lines. In this study total choline (t-cho) distributions in hormone sensitive CWR22 and hormone resistant CWR22r prostate cancer xenograft tumors in mice were measured before, 4 hours and 48 hours after a single bolus 17-AAG treatment at 100 mg/kg using proton MRS. Our results show that tumor t-cho levels declined 4 hours after the treatment for CWR22 (P = 0.001) and 48 hours post treatment for CWR22r (P=0.003). Metabolic changes, in particular of t-cho intensity detected by 1H MRSI, are consistent with the observed immunohistochemistry changes, tumor growth inhibition for CWR22r (P=0.01 at 14 days post treatment) and a constant PSA level versus increasing PSA for control CWR22 (P=0.01). Metabolic changes in t-cho by proton MRSI can be used as an early biomarker of response for advanced stage prostate cancer in targeted therapy such as 17-AAG. PMID:19780165

  1. SU-F-T-454: Dose-Mass-Histogram Sensitivity to Anatomical Changes During Radiotherapy for HNSCC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Ornelas-Couto, M; Bossart, E; Elsayyad, N; Samuels, M; Takita, C; Mihaylov, I [University of Miami, Miami, FL (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To determine the sensitivity of dose-mass-histogram (DMH) due to anatomical changes of head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) radiotherapy (RT). Methods: Eight patients undergoing RT treatment for HNSCC were scanned during the third and sixth week of RT. These second (CT2) and third (CT3) CTs were co-registered to the planning CT (CT1). Contours were propagated via deformable registration from CT1 and doses were re-calculated. DMHs were extracted for each CT set. DMH sensitivity was assessed by dose-mass indices (DMIs), which represent the dose delivered to a certain mass of and anatomical structure. DMIs included: dose to 98%, 95% and 2% of the target masses (PTV1, PTV2, and PTV3) and organs-at-risk (OARs): cord DMI2%, brainstem DMI2%, left- and right-parotid DMI2% and DMI50%, and mandible DMI2%. A two-tailed paired t-test was used to compare changes to DMIs in CT2 and CT3 with respect to CT1 (CT2/CT1 and CT3/CT1). Results: Changes to DMHs were found for all OARs and PTVs, but they were significant only for the PTVs. Maximum dose to PTVs increased significantly for CT2/CT1 in all three PTVs, but CT3/CT1 changes were only significantly different for PTV1 and PTV2. Dose coverage to the three PTVs was also significantly different, DMI98% was lower for both CT2/CT1 and CT3/CT1. DMI95% was significantly lower for PTV1 for CT2/CT1, PTV2 for CT2/CT1 and CT3/CT1, and PTV3 for CT3/CT1. Conclusion: Changes in anatomy significantly change dose-mass coverage for the planning targets, making it necessary to re-plan in order to maintain the therapeutic goals. Maximum dose to the PTVs increase significantly as RT progresses, which may not be problematic as long as the high dose remains in the gross tumor volume. Doses to OARs were minimally affected and the differences were not significant.

  2. Trained, generalized, and collateral behavior changes of preschool children receiving gross-motor skills training.

    OpenAIRE

    Kirby, K C; Holborn, S W

    1986-01-01

    Three preschool children participated in a behavioral training program to improve their gross-motor skills. Ten target behaviors were measured in the training setting to assess direct effects of the program. Generalization probes for two gross-motor behaviors, one fine-motor skill, and two social behaviors were conducted in other settings. Results indicated that the training program improved the gross-motor skills trained and that improvements sometimes generalized to other settings. Contrary...

  3. The sensitivity of stand-scale photosynthesis and transpiration to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruijt, B.; Barton, C.; Rey, A.; Jarvis, P. G.

    The 3-dimensional forest model MAESTRO was used to simulate daily and annual photosynthesis and transpiration fluxes of forest stands and the sensitivity of these fluxes to potential changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]), temperature, water stress and phenology. The effects of possible feed-backs from increased leaf area and limitations to leaf nutrition were simulated by imposing changes in leaf area and nitrogen content. Two different tree species were considered: Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr., a conifer with long needle longevity and large leaf area, and Betula pendula Roth., a broad-leaved deciduous species with an open canopy and small leaf area. Canopy photosynthetic production in trees was predicted to increase with atmospheric [CO2] and length of the growing season and to decrease with increased water stress. Associated increases in leaf area increased production further only in the B. pendula canopy, where the original leaf area was relatively small. Assumed limitations in N uptake affected B. pendula more than P. sitchensis. The effect of increased temperature was shown to depend on leaf area and nitrogen content. The different sensitivities of the two species were related to their very different canopy structure. Increased [CO2] reduced transpiration, but larger leaf area, early leaf growth, and higher temperature all led to increased water use. These effects were limited by feedbacks from soil water stress. The simulations suggest that, with the projected climate change, there is some increase in stand annual `water use efficiency', but the actual water losses to the atmosphere may not always decrease.

  4. Agricultural impact of climate change: A general equilibrium analysis with special reference to Southeast Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Zhai, Fan; Zhuang, Juzhong

    2009-01-01

    Capitalizing on the most recent worldwide estimates of the impacts of climate change on agricultural production, this paper assesses the economic effects of climate change for Southeast Asian countries through 2080. The results suggest that the aggregate impacts of agricultural damages caused by climate change on the global economy are moderate. However, the uneven distribution of productivity losses across global regions would bring significant structural adjustments in worldwide agricultura...

  5. A confirmatory study of the Combined Index of Severity of Fibromyalgia (ICAF*: factorial structure, reliability and sensitivity to change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rejas Javier

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Fibromyalgia (FM is a complex syndrome that affects many aspects of the patients life and it is very difficult to evaluate in clinical practice. A recent study has developed the Combined Index of Severity of Fibromyalgia (ICAF, an instrument that evaluates diverse aspects of FM and offers five indices: emotional, physical, active coping, passive coping and total. The objective of this study is to confirm the structure of the ICAF, check its test-retest reliability, assess its sensitivity to change, and compare the results obtained in a sample of patients with fibromyalgia with another sample of healthy controls. Methods A total of 232 patients took part in the study, 228 women and 4 men, with a mean age of 47.73 years of age (SD = 8.61 and a time of disease evolution since diagnosis of 4.28 years (SD = 4.03. The patients from the FM group completed the ICAF. Between one and two weeks later, they again attended the clinic and complete the 59 items on the ICAF (retest and immediately afterwards they began treatment (according to daily clinical practice criteria. A sample of healthy subjects was also studied as a control group: 110 people were included (106 women and 4 men with a mean age of 46.01 years of age (SD = 9.35. The study was conducted in Spain. Results The results obtained suggest that the four-factor model obtained in the previous study adequately fits the data obtained in this study. The test-retest reliability and internal consistency were all significant and show a high degree of correlation for all the factors as well as in overall score. With the exception of the passive coping factor, all the other scores, including the overall score, were sensitive to change after the therapeutic intervention. The ICAF scores of the patients with fibromyalgia compared with those of the control group were markedly different. Conclusions The findings suggest that the ICAF is a valid, reliable, sensitive to change instrument with

  6. A confirmatory study of the Combined Index of Severity of Fibromyalgia (ICAF*): factorial structure, reliability and sensitivity to change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Fibromyalgia (FM) is a complex syndrome that affects many aspects of the patients life and it is very difficult to evaluate in clinical practice. A recent study has developed the Combined Index of Severity of Fibromyalgia (ICAF), an instrument that evaluates diverse aspects of FM and offers five indices: emotional, physical, active coping, passive coping and total. The objective of this study is to confirm the structure of the ICAF, check its test-retest reliability, assess its sensitivity to change, and compare the results obtained in a sample of patients with fibromyalgia with another sample of healthy controls. Methods A total of 232 patients took part in the study, 228 women and 4 men, with a mean age of 47.73 years of age (SD = 8.61) and a time of disease evolution since diagnosis of 4.28 years (SD = 4.03). The patients from the FM group completed the ICAF. Between one and two weeks later, they again attended the clinic and complete the 59 items on the ICAF (retest) and immediately afterwards they began treatment (according to daily clinical practice criteria). A sample of healthy subjects was also studied as a control group: 110 people were included (106 women and 4 men) with a mean age of 46.01 years of age (SD = 9.35). The study was conducted in Spain. Results The results obtained suggest that the four-factor model obtained in the previous study adequately fits the data obtained in this study. The test-retest reliability and internal consistency were all significant and show a high degree of correlation for all the factors as well as in overall score. With the exception of the passive coping factor, all the other scores, including the overall score, were sensitive to change after the therapeutic intervention. The ICAF scores of the patients with fibromyalgia compared with those of the control group were markedly different. Conclusions The findings suggest that the ICAF is a valid, reliable, sensitive to change instrument with the added advantage

  7. Direct Aggression and Generalized Anxiety in Adolescence : Heterogeneity in Development and Intra-Individual Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meeus, Wim; van de Schoot, Rens; Hawk, Skyler T.; Hale, William W.; Branje, Susan

    2016-01-01

    Co-occurrence of aggression and anxiety might change during adolescence, or stay stable. We studied change and stability of four types of co-occurrence regarding direct aggression and anxiety in adolescence: an anxious and non-aggressive type, an aggressive and non-anxious type, a comorbid

  8. Generalized Anxiety Disorder: A Comparison of Symptom Change in Adults Receiving Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy or Applied Relaxation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donegan, Eleanor; Dugas, Michel J.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) is characterized by excessive worry and somatic symptoms of anxiety (e.g., restlessness, muscle tension). Several psychological treatments lead to significant reductions in GAD symptoms by posttreatment. However, little is known about how GAD symptoms change over time. Our main goal was to examine how…

  9. Changes in the sensitivity of GABAA current rundown to drug treatments in a model of temporal lobe epilepsy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierangelo eCifelli

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The pharmacological treatment of mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (mTLE, the most common epileptic syndrome in adults, is still unsatisfactory, as one third of the patients are or become refractory to antiepileptic agents. Refractoriness may depend upon drug-induced alterations, but the disease per se may also undergo a progressive evolution that affects the sensitivity to drugs. mTLE has been shown to be associated with a dysfunction of the inhibitory signaling mediated by GABAA receptors. In particular, the repetitive activation of GABAA receptors produces a use-dependent decrease (rundown of the evoked currents (IGABA, which is markedly enhanced in the hippocampus and cortex of drug-resistant mTLE patients. This phenomenon has been also observed in the pilocarpine model, where the increased IGABA rundown is observed in the hippocampus at the time of the first spontaneous seizure, then extends to the cortex and remains constant in the chronic phase of the disease. Here, we examined the sensitivity of IGABA to pharmacological modulation. We focused on the antiepileptic agent levetiracetam and on the neurotrophin BDNF, which were previously reported to attenuate mTLE-induced increased rundown in the chronic human tissue. In the pilocarpine model, BDNF displayed a paramount effect, decreasing rundown in the hippocampus at the time of the first seizure, as well as in the hippocampus and cortex in the chronic period. In contrast, levetiracetam did not affect rundown in the hippocampus, but attenuated it in the cortex. Interestingly, this effect of levetiracetam was also observed on the still unaltered rundown observed in the cortex at the time of the first spontaneous seizure. These data suggest that the sensitivity of GABAA receptors to pharmacological interventions undergoes changes during the natural history of mTLE, implicating that the site of seizure initiation and the timing of treatment may highly affect the therapeutic outcome.

  10. In vivo evaluation of acid-induced changes in oesophageal mucosa integrity and sensitivity in non-erosive reflux disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodland, Philip; Al-Zinaty, Mohannad; Yazaki, Etsuro; Sifrim, Daniel

    2013-09-01

    Patients with non-erosive reflux disease (NERD) have impaired oesophageal mucosal integrity (dilated intercellular spaces). Oesophageal mucosal integrity reflects the balance between repeated reflux damage and mucosal recovery. The relationship between mucosal integrity and acid sensitivity is unclear. Oesophageal impedance may be used for in vivo mucosal integrity measurement. We studied acid-induced changes in oesophageal mucosal integrity and acid perception in patients with heartburn. 50 patients with heartburn whithout oesophagitis underwent impedance monitoring before, during and after 10 min oesophageal perfusion with neutral (pH 6.5) and acid solutions (pH 1). Symptoms and impedance were recorded during perfusion. Impedance recovery was assessed for 2 h post-perfusion in ambulatory conditions followed by 24-h impedance-pH study. Reflux monitoring discriminated 20 NERD and 30 functional heartburn (FH) patients. Neutral perfusion caused impedance fall that recovered within 10 min. Acid perfusion caused impedance fall with slow recovery: 6.5 Ω/min (IQR 3.3-12.0 Ω/min). Patients with slow recovery (acid sensitivity (10/12 vs. 4/12, p = 0.04) than those with fast (> 75th percentile) recovery. Patients with NERD had lower baseline impedance (1669 ± 182 Ω vs. 2384 ± 211 Ω, p = 0.02) and slower impedance recovery (6.0 ± 0.9 Ω/min vs. 10.7 ± 1.6 Ω/min, p = 0.03) than patients with FH. Impaired mucosal integrity might be the consequence of repeated reflux episodes with slow recovery. Mucosal integrity, recovery capacity and symptom perception are linked. Low basal impedance and slow recovery after acid challenge are associated with increased acid sensitivity.

  11. Cytoskeletal Regulation Dominates Temperature-Sensitive Proteomic Changes of Hibernation in Forebrain of 13-Lined Ground Squirrels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hindle, Allyson G.; Martin, Sandra L.

    2013-01-01

    13-lined ground squirrels, Ictidomys tridecemlineatus, are obligate hibernators that transition annually between summer homeothermy and winter heterothermy – wherein they exploit episodic torpor bouts. Despite cerebral ischemia during torpor and rapid reperfusion during arousal, hibernator brains resist damage and the animals emerge neurologically intact each spring. We hypothesized that protein changes in the brain underlie winter neuroprotection. To identify candidate proteins, we applied a sensitive 2D gel electrophoresis method to quantify protein differences among forebrain extracts prepared from ground squirrels in two summer, four winter and fall transition states. Proteins that differed among groups were identified using LC-MS/MS. Only 84 protein spots varied significantly among the defined states of hibernation. Protein changes in the forebrain proteome fell largely into two reciprocal patterns with a strong body temperature dependence. The importance of body temperature was tested in animals from the fall; these fall animals use torpor sporadically with body temperatures mirroring ambient temperatures between 4 and 21°C as they navigate the transition between summer homeothermy and winter heterothermy. Unlike cold-torpid fall ground squirrels, warm-torpid individuals strongly resembled the homeotherms, indicating that the changes observed in torpid hibernators are defined by body temperature, not torpor per se. Metabolic enzymes were largely unchanged despite varied metabolic activity across annual and torpor-arousal cycles. Instead, the majority of the observed changes were cytoskeletal proteins and their regulators. While cytoskeletal structural proteins tended to differ seasonally, i.e., between summer homeothermy and winter heterothermy, their regulatory proteins were more strongly affected by body temperature. Changes in the abundance of various isoforms of the microtubule assembly and disassembly regulatory proteins dihydropyrimidinase

  12. Cytoskeletal regulation dominates temperature-sensitive proteomic changes of hibernation in forebrain of 13-lined ground squirrels.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allyson G Hindle

    Full Text Available 13-lined ground squirrels, Ictidomys tridecemlineatus, are obligate hibernators that transition annually between summer homeothermy and winter heterothermy - wherein they exploit episodic torpor bouts. Despite cerebral ischemia during torpor and rapid reperfusion during arousal, hibernator brains resist damage and the animals emerge neurologically intact each spring. We hypothesized that protein changes in the brain underlie winter neuroprotection. To identify candidate proteins, we applied a sensitive 2D gel electrophoresis method to quantify protein differences among forebrain extracts prepared from ground squirrels in two summer, four winter and fall transition states. Proteins that differed among groups were identified using LC-MS/MS. Only 84 protein spots varied significantly among the defined states of hibernation. Protein changes in the forebrain proteome fell largely into two reciprocal patterns with a strong body temperature dependence. The importance of body temperature was tested in animals from the fall; these fall animals use torpor sporadically with body temperatures mirroring ambient temperatures between 4 and 21°C as they navigate the transition between summer homeothermy and winter heterothermy. Unlike cold-torpid fall ground squirrels, warm-torpid individuals strongly resembled the homeotherms, indicating that the changes observed in torpid hibernators are defined by body temperature, not torpor per se. Metabolic enzymes were largely unchanged despite varied metabolic activity across annual and torpor-arousal cycles. Instead, the majority of the observed changes were cytoskeletal proteins and their regulators. While cytoskeletal structural proteins tended to differ seasonally, i.e., between summer homeothermy and winter heterothermy, their regulatory proteins were more strongly affected by body temperature. Changes in the abundance of various isoforms of the microtubule assembly and disassembly regulatory proteins

  13. Optimized Management of Groundwater Resources in Kish Island: A Sensitivity Analysis of Optimal Strategies in Response to Environmental Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Davood Mahmoodzadeh

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater in coastal areas is an essential source of freshwater that warrants protection from seawater intrusion as a priority based on an optimal management plan. Proper optimal management strategies can be developed using a variety of decision-making models. The present study aims to investigate the impacts of environmental changes on groundwater resources. For this purpose, a combined simulation-optimization model is employed that incorporates the SUTRA numerical model and the evolutionaty method of ant colony optimization. The fresh groundwater lens in Kish Island is used as a case study and different scenarios are considered for the likely enviromental changes. Results indicate that while variations in recharge rate form an important factor in the fresh groundwater lens, land-surface inundation due to rises in seawater level, especially in low-lying lands, is the major factor affecting the lens. Furthermore, impacts of environmental changes when effected into the Kish Island aquifer optimization management plan have led to a reduction of more than 20% in the allowable water extraction, indicating the high sensitivity of groundwater resources management plans in small islands to such variations.

  14. Spectroscopic and theoretical investigation of conformational changes of proteins by synthesized pyrimidine derivative and its sensitivity towards FRET application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Swadesh; Singharoy, Dipti; Bhattacharya, Subhash Chandra

    2018-04-01

    Interest in synthesizing and characterizing (IR, NMR and HRMS spectroscopic methods) a pyrimidine based Schiff-base ligand, 2-(2-(Anthracen-9-ylmethylene) hydrazinyl)-4,6-dimethyl pyrimidine (ANHP) has been developed for its application to ascertain the conformational change of protein and sensitivity towards fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET) process. Location of ANHP in bovine serum albumin (BSA) and human serum albumin (HSA) proteins environment has been determined using different spectroscopic techniques. Weakly fluorescent ANHP have shown greater protein induced fluorescence enhancement (PIFE) in case of HSA than BSA, though in both cases energy transfer efficiency are almost same but difference in binding constant values encourages us to find the location of ANHP within the complex protein environment. From the FRET parameter and α-helicity change, it has been found that ANHP bound with Trp-214 of HSA and surface Trp-134 of BSA. Conformational changes of proteins have been observed more for HSA than BSA in presence of ANHP, which has confirmed the location of ANHP in both the protein environments. Coupled with experimental studies, molecular docking analysis has also been done to explain the locations and distance dependent FRET process of ANHP in both proteins.

  15. Detection of non-absorbing charge dynamics via refractive index change in dye-sensitized solar cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuwahara, Shota; Hata, Hiroaki; Taya, Soichiro; Maeda, Naotaka; Shen, Qing; Toyoda, Taro; Katayama, Kenji

    2013-04-28

    The carrier dynamics in dye-sensitized solar cells was investigated by using the transient grating, in addition to the transient absorption method and transient photocurrent method on the order of microseconds to seconds. The signals for the same sample were obtained under a short-circuit condition to compare the carrier dynamics via refractive index change with the transient photocurrent measurement. Optically silent carrier dynamics by transient absorption have been successfully observed via a refractive index change. The corresponding signal components were originated from the charge dynamics at the solid/liquid interface, especially on the liquid side; rearrangement or diffusion motion of charged redox species occurred when the injected electrons were trapped at the TiO2 surface and when the electron-electrolyte recombination occurred at the interface. The assignments were confirmed from the dependence on the viscosity of the solvent and the presence of 4-tert-butyl pyridine. As the viscosity of the solvent increased, the rearrangement and the motion of the charged redox species were delayed. Since the rearrangement dynamics was changed by the presence of 4-tert-butyl pyridine, it affected not only the TiO2 surface but also the redox species close to the interface.

  16. Awake craniotomy induces fewer changes in the plasma amino acid profile than craniotomy under general anesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hol, Jaap W; Klimek, Markus; van der Heide-Mulder, Marieke; Stronks, Dirk; Vincent, Arnoud J; Klein, Jan; Zijlstra, Freek J; Fekkes, Durk

    2009-04-01

    In this prospective, observational, 2-armed study, we compared the plasma amino acid profiles of patients undergoing awake craniotomy to those undergoing craniotomy under general anesthesia. Both experimental groups were also compared with a healthy, age-matched and sex-matched reference group not undergoing surgery. It is our intention to investigate whether plasma amino acid levels provide information about physical and emotional stress, as well as pain during awake craniotomy versus craniotomy under general anesthesia. Both experimental groups received preoperative, perioperative, and postoperative dexamethasone. The plasma levels of 20 amino acids were determined preoperative, perioperative, and postoperatively in all groups and were correlated with subjective markers for pain, stress, and anxiety. In both craniotomy groups, preoperative levels of tryptophan and valine were significantly decreased whereas glutamate, alanine, and arginine were significantly increased relative to the reference group. Throughout time, tryptophan levels were significantly lower in the general anesthesia group versus the awake craniotomy group. The general anesthesia group had a significantly higher phenylalanine/tyrosine ratio, which may suggest higher oxidative stress, than the awake group throughout time. Between experimental groups, a significant increase in large neutral amino acids was found postoperatively in awake craniotomy patients, pain was also less and recovery was faster. A significant difference in mean hospitalization time was also found, with awake craniotomy patients leaving after 4.53+/-2.12 days and general anesthesia patients after 6.17+/-1.62 days; P=0.012. This study demonstrates that awake craniotomy is likely to be physically and emotionally less stressful than general anesthesia and that amino acid profiling holds promise for monitoring postoperative pain and recovery.

  17. Minor long-term changes in weight have beneficial effects on insulin sensitivity and beta-cell function in obese subjects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenfalck, A M; Hendel, Helle Westergren; Rasmussen, M H

    2002-01-01

    To evaluate the long-term effect of changes in body composition induced by weight loss on insulin sensitivity (SI), non-insulin mediated glucose disposal, glucose effectiveness (SG)and beta-cell function.......To evaluate the long-term effect of changes in body composition induced by weight loss on insulin sensitivity (SI), non-insulin mediated glucose disposal, glucose effectiveness (SG)and beta-cell function....

  18. The OMERACT Psoriatic Arthritis Magnetic Resonance Imaging Score (PsAMRIS) is reliable and sensitive to change: results from an OMERACT workshop

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøyesen, Pernille; McQueen, Fiona M; Gandjbakhch, Frédérique

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this multireader exercise was to assess the reliability and sensitivity to change of the psoriatic arthritis magnetic resonance imaging score (PsAMRIS) in PsA patients followed for 1 year.......The aim of this multireader exercise was to assess the reliability and sensitivity to change of the psoriatic arthritis magnetic resonance imaging score (PsAMRIS) in PsA patients followed for 1 year....

  19. DNA methylation changes detected by methylation-sensitive amplified polymorphism in two contrasting rice genotypes under salt stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wensheng; Zhao, Xiuqin; Pan, Yajiao; Zhu, Linghua; Fu, Binying; Li, Zhikang

    2011-09-20

    DNA methylation, one of the most important epigenetic phenomena, plays a vital role in tuning gene expression during plant development as well as in response to environmental stimuli. In the present study, a methylation-sensitive amplified polymorphism (MSAP) analysis was performed to profile DNA methylation changes in two contrasting rice genotypes under salt stress. Consistent with visibly different phenotypes in response to salt stress, epigenetic markers classified as stable inter-cultivar DNA methylation differences were determined between salt-tolerant FL478 and salt-sensitive IR29. In addition, most tissue-specific DNA methylation loci were conserved, while many of the growth stage-dependent DNA methylation loci were dynamic between the two genotypes. Strikingly, salt stress induced a decrease in DNA methylation specifically in roots at the seedling stage that was more profound in IR29 than in the FL478. This result may indicate that demethylation of genes is an active epigenetic response to salt stress in roots at the seedling stage, and helps to further elucidate the implications of DNA methylation in crop growth and development. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  20. Microstructural changes of AISI 316L due to structural sensitization and its influence on the fatigue properties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sylvia Dundeková

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Mechanical and fatigue properties of material are dependent on its microstructure. The microstructure of AISI 316L stainless steel commonly used for the production of medical tools, equipment and implants can be easily influenced by its heat treatment. Microstructural changes and fatigue properties of AISI 316L stainless steel due to the heat treatment consisted of annealing at the temperature of 815°C with the dwell time of 500 hours were analyzed in the present paper. Precipitation of intermetallic phases and carbides was observed as a response of the material to the applied heat treatment. Small negative influence was observed in the case of fatigue region bellow 105 cycles; however the fatigue limit remains unchanged due to the structural sensitization.

  1. Capturing age-related changes in functional contrast sensitivity with decreasing light levels in monocular and binocular vision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillespie-Gallery, Hanna; Konstantakopoulou, Evgenia; Harlow, Jonathan A; Barbur, John L

    2013-09-09

    It is challenging to separate the effects of normal aging of the retina and visual pathways independently from optical factors, decreased retinal illuminance, and early stage disease. This study determined limits to describe the effect of light level on normal, age-related changes in monocular and binocular functional contrast sensitivity. We recruited 95 participants aged 20 to 85 years. Contrast thresholds for correct orientation discrimination of the gap in a Landolt C optotype were measured using a 4-alternative, forced-choice (4AFC) procedure at screen luminances from 34 to 0.12 cd/m(2) at the fovea and parafovea (0° and ±4°). Pupil size was measured continuously. The Health of the Retina index (HRindex) was computed to capture the loss of contrast sensitivity with decreasing light level. Participants were excluded if they exhibited performance outside the normal limits of interocular differences or HRindex values, or signs of ocular disease. Parafoveal contrast thresholds showed a steeper decline and higher correlation with age at the parafovea than the fovea. Of participants with clinical signs of ocular disease, 83% had HRindex values outside the normal limits. Binocular summation of contrast signals declined with age, independent of interocular differences. The HRindex worsens more rapidly with age at the parafovea, consistent with histologic findings of rod loss and its link to age-related degenerative disease of the retina. The HRindex and interocular differences could be used to screen for and separate the earliest stages of subclinical disease from changes caused by normal aging.

  2. Temperature sensitivity of drought-induced tree mortality portends increased regional die-off under global-change-type drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Henry D.; Guardiola-Claramonte, Maite; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Villegas, Juan Camilo; Breshears, David D.; Zou, Chris B.; Troch, Peter A.; Huxman, Travis E.

    2009-01-01

    Large-scale biogeographical shifts in vegetation are predicted in response to the altered precipitation and temperature regimes associated with global climate change. Vegetation shifts have profound ecological impacts and are an important climate-ecosystem feedback through their alteration of carbon, water, and energy exchanges of the land surface. Of particular concern is the potential for warmer temperatures to compound the effects of increasingly severe droughts by triggering widespread vegetation shifts via woody plant mortality. The sensitivity of tree mortality to temperature is dependent on which of 2 non-mutually-exclusive mechanisms predominates—temperature-sensitive carbon starvation in response to a period of protracted water stress or temperature-insensitive sudden hydraulic failure under extreme water stress (cavitation). Here we show that experimentally induced warmer temperatures (≈4 °C) shortened the time to drought-induced mortality in Pinus edulis (piñon shortened pine) trees by nearly a third, with temperature-dependent differences in cumulative respiration costs implicating carbon starvation as the primary mechanism of mortality. Extrapolating this temperature effect to the historic frequency of water deficit in the southwestern United States predicts a 5-fold increase in the frequency of regional-scale tree die-off events for this species due to temperature alone. Projected increases in drought frequency due to changes in precipitation and increases in stress from biotic agents (e.g., bark beetles) would further exacerbate mortality. Our results demonstrate the mechanism by which warmer temperatures have exacerbated recent regional die-off events and background mortality rates. Because of pervasive projected increases in temperature, our results portend widespread increases in the extent and frequency of vegetation die-off. PMID:19365070

  3. Utility, reliability, sensitivity and validity of an online test system designed to monitor changes in cognitive function in clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesnes, Keith A; Brooker, Helen; Ballard, Clive; McCambridge, Laura; Stenton, Robert; Corbett, Anne

    2017-12-01

    The advent of long-term remotely conducted clinical trials requires assessments which can be administered online. This paper considers the utility, reliability, sensitivity and validity of an internet-based system for measuring changes in cognitive function which is being used in one such trial. The Platform for Research Online to investigate Genetics and Cognition in Ageing is a 10-year longitudinal and entirely remote study launched in November 2015. The CogTrack TM System is being used to monitor changes in important aspects of cognitive function using tests of attention, information processing and episodic memory. On study entry, the participants performed CogTrack TM up to three times over seven days, and these data are evaluated in this paper. During the first six months of the study, 14 531 individuals aged 50 to 94 years enrolled and performed the CogTrack TM System, 8627 of whom completed three test sessions. On the first administration, 99.4% of the study tasks were successfully completed. Repeated testing showed training/familiarisation effects on four of the ten measures which had largely stabilised by the third test session. The factor structure of the various measures was found to be robust. Evaluation of the influence of age identified clinically relevant declines over the age range of the population on one or more measures from all tasks. The results of these analyses identify CogTrack TM to be a practical and valid method to reliably, sensitively, remotely and repeatedly collect cognitive data from large samples of individuals aged 50 and over. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Changes in mechanical, chemical, and thermal sensitivity of the cornea after topical application of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acosta, M Carmen; Berenguer-Ruiz, Leticia; García-Gálvez, Alberto; Perea-Tortosa, David; Gallar, Juana; Belmonte, Carlos

    2005-01-01

    In addition to their well-known anti-inflammatory actions, some of the nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) appear to have an analgesic effect. In human subjects, the changes in threshold and intensity of sensations evoked by mechanical, chemical, and thermal stimulation of the cornea induced by topical administration of two commercial NSAIDs, diclofenac sodium (Voltaren; Novartis, Basel, Switzerland) and flurbiprofen (Ocuflur; Allergan, Irvine, CA), were studied. Corneal sensitivity was measured in 10 young, healthy subjects with a gas esthesiometer. Chemical (10%-70% CO2 in air), mechanical (0-264 mL/min), and thermal (corneal temperature changes between -4.5 degrees C and +3 degrees C around the normal value) stimuli were applied to the center of the cornea. The intensity and perceived magnitude of the psychophysical attributes of the evoked sensation were scored at the end of the pulse in a 10-cm, continuous visual analog scale (VAS). The threshold was expressed as the stimulus intensity that evoked a VAS score >0.5. Sensitivity was measured in both eyes of each subject on two separate days, one without treatment and the other 30 minutes after topical application of 0.03% flurbiprofen (seven subjects) or 0.1% diclofenac sodium (six subjects). Diclofenac attenuated significantly all the sensation parameters evoked by high-intensity mechanical, chemical, and thermal stimuli. Flurbiprofen produced a slight reduction of the sensations evoked by mechanical and chemical stimulation that became significant only for the irritation caused by chemical stimuli of maximum intensity (70% CO2). None of the drugs modified significantly the detection threshold of the different stimuli. Flurbiprofen had a very limited effect on sensations evoked by corneal stimulation, whereas diclofenac reduced the intensity of sensations evoked by stimuli of different modality, suggesting a mild local anesthetic effect of this drug on all types of corneal sensory fibers. Such

  5. Joining them up: the challenges of organisational change in the professional politic of general practice.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burtonwood, A.; Hocking, P.; Elwyn, G.

    2001-01-01

    Primary health care in the UK is currently centred around independent contractor organisations (general practices). Although the development of these organisations is considered necessary to improve the quality of health care, no structures exist to support the systematic development necessary to

  6. Reform in a General Chemistry Laboratory: How Do Students Experience Change in the Instructional Approach?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chopra, I.; O'Connor, J.; Pancho, R.; Chrzanowski, M.; Sandi-Urena, S.

    2017-01-01

    This qualitative study investigated the experience of a cohort of students exposed consecutively to two substantially different environments in their General Chemistry Laboratory programme. To this end, the first semester in a traditional expository programme was followed by a semester in a cooperative, problem-based, multi-week format. The focus…

  7. 75 FR 12451 - Mandatory Reporting of Greenhouse Gases: Minor Harmonizing Changes to the General Provisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-16

    ... number for the Air Docket is (202) 566-1742. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Carole Cook, Climate Change.... 112120 Dairy cattle and milk production facilities. 112210 Hog and pig farms. 112310 Chicken egg...

  8. 75 FR 12489 - Mandatory Reporting of Greenhouse Gases: Minor Harmonizing Changes to the General Provisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-16

    ... FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Carole Cook, Climate Change Division, Office of Atmospheric Programs (MC... feedlots. 112120 Dairy cattle and milk production facilities. 112210 Hog and pig farms. 112310 Chicken egg...

  9. A Mixed Enthalpy-Temperature Finite Element Method For Generalized Phase-Change Problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    krabbenhøft, Kristian; Damkilde, Lars

    2003-01-01

    In a large number of problems of engineering interest the transition of the material from one phase to another is of vital importance in describing the overall physical behaviour. Common applications include metal casting, freezing and thawing of foodstuffs and other biological materials, ground ...... freezing and solar energy storage. The phase-change problem is characterized by an abrupt change in enthalpy per unit temperature in a narrow temperature range around the freezing point....

  10. General technical comments on climate change - comment 1: Answers to five questions posed at the conference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Firor, J.

    1992-01-01

    An attempt is made to answer the following five questions: (1) what are the projections of global average temperature increase? (2) What are the prospects for projecting regional climate change? (3) Do the climate models produce outlooks for a group of climate variables closely related to sociatal impacts? (4) What is the feasibility and what are the costs of proposed geoengineering options for responding to climate change? (5) What climate variables co-vary with global average temperature

  11. Trade Liberalization and Climate Change: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impacts on Global Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katrin Rehdanz

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the A1B and A2 scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on global agriculture, and its interactions with trade liberalization, as proposed for the Doha Development Round. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Significant reductions in agricultural tariffs lead to modest changes in regional water use. Patterns are non-linear. On the regional level, water use may go up for partial liberalization, and down for more complete liberalization. This is because different crops respond differently to tariff reductions, and because trade and competition matter too. Moreover, trade liberalization tends to reduce water use in water scarce regions, and increase water use in water abundant regions, even though water markets do not exist in most countries. Considering impacts of climate change, the results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall over time while food prices increase. Larger changes are observed under the SRES A2 scenario for the medium term (2020 and under the SRES A1B scenario for the long term (2050. Combining scenarios of future climate change with trade liberalization, countries are affected differently. However, the overall effect on welfare does not change much.