WorldWideScience

Sample records for change fourth assessment

  1. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Observed Climate Change Impacts Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessement Report (AR4) Observed Climate Change Impacts Database contains observed responses to climate...

  2. Integrating sustainable development into the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Najam, Adil; Rahman, Atiq A.; Huq, Saleemul; Sokona, Youba

    2003-01-01

    This paper reviews how sustainable development was treated in prior assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and presents proposals on how it might be integrated into the forthcoming Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). There has been a steady, but slow, increase in the exposure and treatment of sustainable development in each subsequent IPCC assessment. However, much more remains to be done if the mandate provided in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is to be met. The paper argues that the AR4 can take three practical steps in making the integration more complete. First, at the conceptual level, equity concerns should be made a more pervasive, even central, focus of the AR4. Second, at the analytical level, the examination of alternative development pathways begun during the TAR process needs to be continued and expanded. Third, at the operational level, the AR4 should deal with sustainable development in all its chapters rather than relegating it to a peripheral few, should broaden the base of expertise reflected in its panels of authors and reviewers, and should commission a companion special report on climate change and sustainable development

  3. 2007 status of climate change: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Summary for Policy-makers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barker, T.; Bashmakov, I.; Bernstein, L.; Bogner, J.; Bosch, P.; Dave, R.; Davidson, O.; Fisher, B.; Grubb, M.; Gupta, S.; Halsnaes, K.; Heij, B.; Kahn Ribeiro, S.; Kobayashi, S.; Levine, M.; Martino, D.; Masera Cerutti, O.; Metz, B.; Meyer, L.; Nabuurs, G.J.; Najam, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Holger Rogner, H.; Roy, J.; Sathaye, J.; Schock, R.; Shukla, P.; Sims, R.; Smith, P.; Swart, R.; Tirpak, D.; Urge-Vorsatz, D.; Dadi, Z.

    2007-01-01

    The Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focuses on new literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects of mitigation of climate change, published since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) and the Special Reports on CO 2 Capture and Storage (SRCCS) and on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (SROC).The main aim of this summary report is to assess options for mitigating climate change. Several aspects link climate change with development issues. This report explores these links in detail, and illustrates where climate change and sustainable development are mutually reinforcing. Economic development needs, resource endowments and mitigative and adaptive capacities differ across regions. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to the climate change problem, and solutions need to be regionally differentiated to reflect different socio-economic conditions and, to a lesser extent, geographical differences. Although this report has a global focus, an attempt is made to differentiate the assessment of scientific and technical findings for the various regions. Given that mitigation options vary significantly between economic sectors, it was decided to use the economic sectors to organize the material on short- to medium-term mitigation options. Contrary to what was done in the Third Assessment Report, all relevant aspects of sectoral mitigation options, such as technology, cost, policies etc., are discussed together, to provide the user with a comprehensive discussion of the sectoral mitigation options. The report is organised into six sections after the introduction: - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends; - Mitigation in the short and medium term, across different economic sectors (until 2030); - Mitigation in the long-term (beyond 2030); - Policies, measures and instruments to mitigate climate change; - Sustainable development and climate change mitigation; - Gaps in

  4. Cephalometric Assessment of the Fourth Ventricles Using ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    brain. To provide baseline data for measurements of normal fourth ventricle using ... (2001) normally the left ventricle was larger than the right one and both were larger in males among .... Kennedy, D.N., Caviness, Jr, V.S. and Tsuang,.

  5. Fourth Generation War: Paradigm for Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-06-01

    PARADIGM FOR CHANGE by Ghanshyam Singh Katoch June 2005 Thesis Advisor : Kalev Sepp Second Reader...Approved by: Kalev Sepp Thesis Advisor Douglas Borer Second Reader Gordon McCormick Chairman, Department of Defense...combination of all the resources of the government, not just the army. d. Economy of Effort A Robo -Soldier is a small, tracked, electrically powered vehicle

  6. A Summary of an Assessment of Fourth and Sixth Grade Basic Skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    CTB / McGraw-Hill, Monterey, CA.

    A comprehensive assessment was made of the status of elementary education in Missouri in reading, mathematics, language, and study skills. The Comprehensive Tests of Basic Skills (CTBS) and the Short Form Test of Academic Aptitude (SFTAA) were administered to a sample of Missouri fourth and sixth graders. For each curricular area, Missouri…

  7. 2007 status of climate change: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Summary for Policy-makers; Bilan 2007 des changements climatiques: l'attenuation des changements climatiques. Contribution du Groupe de travail 3 au quatrieme rapport d'evaluation du Groupe d'Experts Intergouvernemental sur l'Evolution du Climat (GIEC). Resume a l'attention des decideurs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barker, T.; Bashmakov, I.; Bernstein, L.; Bogner, J.; Bosch, P.; Dave, R.; Davidson, O.; Fisher, B.; Grubb, M.; Gupta, S.; Halsnaes, K.; Heij, B.; Kahn Ribeiro, S.; Kobayashi, S.; Levine, M.; Martino, D.; Masera Cerutti, O.; Metz, B.; Meyer, L.; Nabuurs, G.J.; Najam, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Holger Rogner, H.; Roy, J.; Sathaye, J.; Schock, R.; Shukla, P.; Sims, R.; Smith, P.; Swart, R.; Tirpak, D.; Urge-Vorsatz, D.; Dadi, Z

    2007-07-01

    The Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focuses on new literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects of mitigation of climate change, published since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) and the Special Reports on CO{sub 2} Capture and Storage (SRCCS) and on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (SROC).The main aim of this summary report is to assess options for mitigating climate change. Several aspects link climate change with development issues. This report explores these links in detail, and illustrates where climate change and sustainable development are mutually reinforcing. Economic development needs, resource endowments and mitigative and adaptive capacities differ across regions. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to the climate change problem, and solutions need to be regionally differentiated to reflect different socio-economic conditions and, to a lesser extent, geographical differences. Although this report has a global focus, an attempt is made to differentiate the assessment of scientific and technical findings for the various regions. Given that mitigation options vary significantly between economic sectors, it was decided to use the economic sectors to organize the material on short- to medium-term mitigation options. Contrary to what was done in the Third Assessment Report, all relevant aspects of sectoral mitigation options, such as technology, cost, policies etc., are discussed together, to provide the user with a comprehensive discussion of the sectoral mitigation options. The report is organised into six sections after the introduction: - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends; - Mitigation in the short and medium term, across different economic sectors (until 2030); - Mitigation in the long-term (beyond 2030); - Policies, measures and instruments to mitigate climate change; - Sustainable development and climate change mitigation; - Gaps in

  8. 2007 status of climate change: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Summary for Policy-makers; Bilan 2007 des changements climatiques: l'attenuation des changements climatiques. Contribution du Groupe de travail 3 au quatrieme rapport d'evaluation du Groupe d'Experts Intergouvernemental sur l'Evolution du Climat (GIEC). Resume a l'attention des decideurs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barker, T; Bashmakov, I; Bernstein, L; Bogner, J; Bosch, P; Dave, R; Davidson, O; Fisher, B; Grubb, M; Gupta, S; Halsnaes, K; Heij, B; Kahn Ribeiro, S; Kobayashi, S; Levine, M; Martino, D; Masera Cerutti, O; Metz, B; Meyer, L; Nabuurs, G J; Najam, A; Nakicenovic, N; Holger Rogner, H; Roy, J; Sathaye, J; Schock, R; Shukla, P; Sims, R; Smith, P; Swart, R; Tirpak, D; Urge-Vorsatz, D; Dadi, Z

    2007-07-01

    The Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focuses on new literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects of mitigation of climate change, published since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) and the Special Reports on CO{sub 2} Capture and Storage (SRCCS) and on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (SROC).The main aim of this summary report is to assess options for mitigating climate change. Several aspects link climate change with development issues. This report explores these links in detail, and illustrates where climate change and sustainable development are mutually reinforcing. Economic development needs, resource endowments and mitigative and adaptive capacities differ across regions. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to the climate change problem, and solutions need to be regionally differentiated to reflect different socio-economic conditions and, to a lesser extent, geographical differences. Although this report has a global focus, an attempt is made to differentiate the assessment of scientific and technical findings for the various regions. Given that mitigation options vary significantly between economic sectors, it was decided to use the economic sectors to organize the material on short- to medium-term mitigation options. Contrary to what was done in the Third Assessment Report, all relevant aspects of sectoral mitigation options, such as technology, cost, policies etc., are discussed together, to provide the user with a comprehensive discussion of the sectoral mitigation options. The report is organised into six sections after the introduction: - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends; - Mitigation in the short and medium term, across different economic sectors (until 2030); - Mitigation in the long-term (beyond 2030); - Policies, measures and instruments to mitigate climate change; - Sustainable development and climate change mitigation; - Gaps in

  9. Imperial Medicine in a Changing World: The Fourth International Congresses on Tropical Medicine and Malaria, 1948.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Julia

    2016-01-01

    The close connections between colonialism and tropical medicine have been widely discussed by historians over the last fifty years. However, few authors consider the relationship between tropical medicine and European and North American imperialism in the immediate post-World War II period. This article examines the Fourth International Congresses on Tropical Medicine and Malaria, held jointly in Washington in 1948. Using the research presented during the conference, it questions to what degree the specialisation had changed in the postwar period. It argues that although some changes are discernable, imperial traditions and relationships remained firmly embedded within the tropical medicine of the congress.

  10. Final Environmental Assessment to Renovate Fourth Cliff Recreational Area at Hanscom Air Force Base, Massachusetts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-11-17

    Renovate Fourth Cliff Recreational Annex Grading and topography changes may be necessary to design an appropriate drainage system at the site...goals: 1) Increase safety for personnel and patrons at the site; 2) Provide protection of the exposed cliff face from rainwater runoff; 3) Provide...be followed. Drainage design must meet Massachusetts Stormwater Management Standards, as well as comply with the Federal Clean Water Act. Solid

  11. Search for the fourth generation charge -1/3 quark via flavor changing neutral currents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greenlee, H.B.

    1996-08-01

    There is some likelihood that a light ( t ) fourth generation charge -1/3 quark (b') would decay predominantly via loop induced flavor changing neutral currents. The charged current decay of b' to charm wuld be highly Cabibbo suppressed due to the fact that it changes the generation number by two. The D0 experiment has searched for b' pair production where one or both b' quarks decays via b' → b + γ, giving signatures photon + three jets and photon + two jets. We do not see a significant excess of such events over background. In both modes, we set an upper limit on the cross section times branching ratio that is sufficient to rule out a standard sequential b' decaying predominantly via FCNC in the mass range m Z /2 b' Z + m b . For b' masses larger than this, the dominant FCNC decay mode is expected to be b' → b + Z. 10 refs., 10 figs., 10 tabs

  12. Search for a fourth generation charge -1/3 quark via flavor changing neutral currents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-07-01

    There is some likelihood that a light ( t ) fourth generation charge -1/3 quark (b') would decay predominantly via loop induced flavor changing neutral currents. The charged current decay of b' to charm would be highly Cabibbo suppressed due to the fact that it changes the generation number by two. The D0 experiment has searched for b' pair production where one or both b' quarks decays via b' → b+γ, giving signatures photon + three jets and two photons + two jets. WE don not see a significant excess of such events over background. In both modes, we set an upper limit on the cross section times branching ratio that is sufficient to rule out a standard sequential b' decaying predominantly via FCNC in the mass range m Z /2 b' Z + m b . For b' masses larger than this, the dominant FCNC decay mode is expected to be b' → b + Z. 14 refs., 13 figs., 5 tabs

  13. Overview of fourth generation reactors. Assessment in terms of safety and radiation protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Couturier, J.; Baudrand, O.; Blanc, D.; Bourgois, T.; Hache, G.; Ivanov, E.; Bonneville, H.; Meignen, R.; Nicaise, G.; Bruna, G.; Clement, B.; Kissane, M.; Monhardt, B.

    2012-01-01

    Based on a systematic analysis of the different concepts of fourth generation nuclear reactors, this report gives an overview of specific aspects regarding safety and radiation protection for six concepts: sodium fast reactors (SFR), gas fast reactors (GFR), lead fast reactors (LFR), molten salt reactors (MSR), very high or high temperature reactors (V/HTR) and supercritical water reactors (SCWR). This assessment is based on different studies and researches performed by the IRSN at an international level. For each reactor concept, the report proposes a presentation of the current status of development and its perspectives, describes the safety aspects which are specific to this concept, identifies and discusses elements for safety analysis, and assesses the concept with respect to the Fukushima accident and IAEA recommendations and predefined themes

  14. Understanding the assistance dynamic of the psychiatric emergency service using the fourth generation assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aline Aparecida Buriola

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A study to comprehend the requests, concerns, and questions of professionals about the assistance dynamic of a psychiatric emergency service. We conducted a case study, using the Fourth Generation assessment method, with 15 participants. We collected data using documental analysis, semi-structured interview and observation and, we used the constant comparative method for analysis. Therefore, two thematic axes arose: a Comprehending the assistance dynamic of the Psychiatric emergency service and, b The disarticulation of the psychosocial attention network as a barrier to satisfaction with the assistance in the psychiatric emergency. We considered that the assistance dynamic in the Psychiatric Emergency extrapolated the simple, unique character of stabilizing patients with acute mental disorders, once it directs the user’s flow to the adequate treatment in the psychosocial attention network.

  15. Change Agents & Impact Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kørnøv, Lone; Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Hansen, Anne Merrild

    2010-01-01

    One of the challenges facing impact assessment is finding ways to work in research and practice that allow appropriate action and critical interrogation og action to enable and support sustainable change.......One of the challenges facing impact assessment is finding ways to work in research and practice that allow appropriate action and critical interrogation og action to enable and support sustainable change....

  16. Proceedings of the fourth JAEA-US EPA workshop on radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Endo, Akira; Boyd, Michael

    2007-02-01

    This report is the proceedings of the fourth workshop jointly organized by the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) under the terms of agreement for cooperation in the field of radiation protection. The workshop was sponsored by the Nuclear Science and Engineering Directorate and was held at the Nuclear Science Research Institute, the Tokai Research and Development Center, JAEA, on November 7-8, 2006. The objective of the workshop was to exchange and discuss recent information on radiation effects, radiation risk assessment, radiation dosimetry, emergency response, radiation protection standards, and waste management. Twenty-two papers were presented by experts from JAEA, US EPA, the National Academies, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Washington State University and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Three keynotes addressed research on radiation effects and radiation protection at JAEA, the latest report on health risks from exposure to low levels of ionizing radiation published by the National Research Council (BEIR VII Phase 2), and recent developments in Committee 2 for the forthcoming recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). The workshop provided a good opportunity for identifying future research needed for radiation risk assessment. The 22 of the presented papers are indexed individually. (J.P.N.)

  17. Worldwide Assessment of the Status of Seismic Zonation, Fourth International Forum on Seismic Zonation, Proceedings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, W.W.

    1994-01-01

    We are pleased to provide you with information developed for the Fourth International Forum on Seismic Zonation which will be convened in two locations year in conjunction two major international meetings. The objectives are: 1) to assess the status of seismic zonation in every country of the world, 2) to evaluate the reasons for advances and new initiatives, and 3) to foster continued cooperation. Seismic zonation is the process that leads to risk reduction and sustainability of new development. It is based on the division of a geographic region into smaller areas or zones on the basis of an integrated assessment of the hazard, built, and policy environments of the region. Seismic zonation depends on hazard mapping performed on national/regional, subregional, and urban (i.e., microzonation) scales depending on the particular application. We gratefully acknowledge the written communications of many professionals who responded to our request for information. Also, we acknowledge the use of information contained in five valuable reports (see directories in the Appendices for information on where to obtain copies of the reports): 1. United Nations, 1990, Cooperative Project for Seismic Risk Reduction in the Mediterranean Region (SEISMED), proceedings, Office of the United Nations Disaster Relief Coordinator, Geneva, Switzerland, 3 vols. (Franco Maranzana -

  18. Confidence in Science and Achievement Outcomes of Fourth-Grade Students in Korea: Results from the TIMSS 2011 Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    House, J. Daniel; Telese, James A.

    2017-01-01

    Findings from assessments of fourth-grade science have indicated that students in Korea scored higher than international averages. Research results have also shown that attitudes toward science were related to achievement outcomes for Korean students. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between confidence in science and…

  19. Referred Students' Performance on the Reynolds Intellectual Assessment Scales and the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children--Fourth Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Oliver W.; Paulin, Rachel V.

    2007-01-01

    This study investigates the convergent relations of the Reynolds Intellectual Assessment Scales (RIAS) and the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children--Fourth Edition (WISC-IV). Data from counterbalanced administrations of each instrument to 48 elementary school students referred for psychoeducational testing were examined. Analysis of the 96…

  20. Concussion assessment and management knowledge among chiropractic fourth year interns and residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazemi, Mohsen; Pichini, Alessandro; Scappaticci, Steven; Savic, Mitchell

    2016-12-01

    To investigate the degree of knowledge chiropractic fourth year interns and post-graduate chiropractic residents have in regard to concussion diagnosis and management. A survey modified from a study conducted by Boggild and Tator (2012), was administered to fourth year chiropractic interns and post-graduate residents via SurveyMonkey.com. Chiropractic fourth year interns and postgraduate chiropractic specialty college residents scored 5.2 and 5.25 out of 9 respectively, which compares well with Bogglid and Tator's reports on medical students and residents. Several knowledge gaps were identified in the sample population. The results from this survey show that the concussion knowledge among Canadian fourth year chiropractic interns and specialty college residents compares favorably with the knowledge of fourth year medical students and residents in diagnosing and managing concussions. Chiropractors appear to possess the skills and knowledge to diagnose and manage concussion equal to their medical counterparts. However, knowledge gaps regarding concussion diagnosis and management were found among chiropractic students and residents.

  1. Localized Multi-Model Extremes Metrics for the Fourth National Climate Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, T. R.; Kunkel, K.; Stevens, L. E.; Easterling, D. R.; Biard, J.; Sun, L.

    2017-12-01

    We have performed localized analysis of scenario-based datasets for the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4). These datasets include CMIP5-based Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) downscaled simulations at daily temporal resolution and 1/16th-degree spatial resolution. Over 45 temperature and precipitation extremes metrics have been processed using LOCA data, including threshold, percentile, and degree-days calculations. The localized analysis calculates trends in the temperature and precipitation extremes metrics for relatively small regions such as counties, metropolitan areas, climate zones, administrative areas, or economic zones. For NCA4, we are currently addressing metropolitan areas as defined by U.S. Census Bureau Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Such localized analysis provides essential information for adaptation planning at scales relevant to local planning agencies and businesses. Nearly 30 such regions have been analyzed to date. Each locale is defined by a closed polygon that is used to extract LOCA-based extremes metrics specific to the area. For each metric, single-model data at each LOCA grid location are first averaged over several 30-year historical and future periods. Then, for each metric, the spatial average across the region is calculated using model weights based on both model independence and reproducibility of current climate conditions. The range of single-model results is also captured on the same localized basis, and then combined with the weighted ensemble average for each region and each metric. For example, Boston-area cooling degree days and maximum daily temperature is shown below for RCP8.5 (red) and RCP4.5 (blue) scenarios. We also discuss inter-regional comparison of these metrics, as well as their relevance to risk analysis for adaptation planning.

  2. Positive solutions with changing sign energy to a nonhomogeneous elliptic problem of fourth order

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.Talbi

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we study the existence for two positive solutions toa nonhomogeneous elliptic equation of fourth order with a parameter lambda such tha 0 < lambda < lambda^. The first solution has a negative energy while the energy of the second one is positive for 0 < lambda < lambda_0 and negative for lambda_0 < lambda < lambda^. The values lambda_0 and lambda^ are given under variational form and we show that every corresponding critical point is solution of the nonlinear elliptic problem (with a suitable multiplicative term.

  3. H-Area Seepage Basin (H-HWMF): Fourth quarterly 1989, groundwater quality assessment report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-03-01

    During the fourth quarter of 1989 the wells which make up the H-Area Seepage Basins (H-HWMF){sup 1} monitoring network were sampled. Laboratory analyses were performed to measure levels of hazardous constituents, indicator parameters, tritium, and gross alpha. A Gas Chromatograph Mass Spectrometer (GCMS) scan was performed on all wells sampled to determine any hazardous organic constituents present in the groundwater. The primary contaminants observed at wells monitoring the H-Area Seepage Basins are tritium, nitrate, mercury, gross alpha, and total radium.

  4. The Fourth Revolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abelson, Philip H.

    1972-01-01

    Comments on the conclusions of the Carnegie Commission on Higher Education's report, The Fourth Revolution: Instructional Technology in Higher Education,'' and advocates effort in exploiting the new technology and in assessing the possible adverse effects. (AL)

  5. Exploring the heavy air pollution in Beijing in the fourth quarter of 2015: assessment of environmental benefits for red alerts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nie, Teng; Nie, Lei; Zhou, Zhen; Wang, Zhanshan; Xue, Yifeng; Gao, Jiajia; Wu, Xiaoqing; Fan, Shoubin; Cheng, Linglong

    2018-06-01

    In recent years, Beijing has experienced severe air pollution which has caused widespread public concern. Compared to the same period in 2014, the first three quarters of 2015 exhibited significantly improved air quality. However, the air quality sharply declined in the fourth quarter of 2015, especially in November and December. During that time, Beijing issued the first red alert for severe air pollution in history. In total, 2 red alerts, 3 orange alerts, 3 yellow alerts, and 3 blue alerts were issued based on the adoption of relatively temporary emergency control measures to mitigate air pollution. This study explored the reasons for these variations in air quality and assessed the effectiveness of emergency alerts in addressing severe air pollution. A synthetic analysis of emission variations and meteorological conditions was performed to better understand these extreme air pollution episodes in the fourth quarter of 2015. The results showed that compared to those in the same period in 2014, the daily average emissions of air pollutants decreased in the fourth quarter of 2015. However, the emission levels of primary pollutants were still relatively high, which was the main intrinsic cause of haze episodes, and unfavorable meteorological conditions represented important external factors. Emergency control measures for heavy air pollution were implemented during this red alert period, decreasing the emissions of primary air pollutants by approximately 36% and the PM2.5 concentration by 11%‒21%.

  6. Using a model based fourth-corner analysis to explain vegetation change following an extraordinary fire disturbance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venn, S E; Pickering, C M; Butler, S A; Letten, A D

    2016-11-01

    In ecosystems where large-scale disturbances are infrequent, the mode of succession may be difficult to discern and floristic surveys alone cannot be used determine the underlying processes causing vegetation change. To determine the causes of vegetation change in response to a large-scale fire event, we combined traditional floristic survey data, plant functional traits and environmental variables in a model-based solution to the fourth-corner problem. This approach allowed us to describe the trait-environment relationship and provides an intuitive matrix of environment by trait interaction coefficients. We could then quantify the strength and direction of associations between plant traits, species life-forms and environmental factors in two alpine plant communities over nine years post-fire. Initially, the fire drastically reduced vegetation cover and species density to very low levels. The fourth-corner analysis interaction coefficients indicated that over the course of the nine-year study a high abundance of graminoids, a low abundance of shrubs, tall species and those with high leaf dry matter content had the strongest associations with the two plant communities. We also found evidence for functional homogenisation between these two communities using this novel technique. Analysing plant traits and species responses post-fire in this manner can be used to infer the ecological processes driving shifts in vegetation.

  7. Summary of the Fourth Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and of the Activities of The International Nuclear Forum in Buenos Aires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt-Kuster, W.J.

    1999-01-01

    The Fourth Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Convention on Climate Change was concluded on 14 November 1998 in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Unlike Kyoto in 1997, this conference was on a smaller scale and was convened as a technical work session, its aim being to produce a plan of action and a timetable for a programme of work for the next two years. This paper summarizes the main outcomes of the conference and looks at the way in which the International Nuclear Forum organized the nuclear industry's representation. In particular, the paper assesses the impact of the nuclear industry's message regarding the avoidance of greenhouse gas emissions, and goes on to consider what lessons can be reached for raising the industry's profile at future climate change conferences. (author)

  8. Fourth quantization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faizal, Mir

    2013-12-18

    In this Letter we will analyze the creation of the multiverse. We will first calculate the wave function for the multiverse using third quantization. Then we will fourth-quantize this theory. We will show that there is no single vacuum state for this theory. Thus, we can end up with a multiverse, even after starting from a vacuum state. This will be used as a possible explanation for the creation of the multiverse. We also analyze the effect of interactions in this fourth-quantized theory.

  9. The emerging fourth sector

    OpenAIRE

    Friis, Andreas

    2009-01-01

    The Fourth Sector is a new phenomenon related to dual social and financial value creation, until now not clearly defined with crisp sectoral boundaries and an operationalized definition. The phenomenon is getting increased attention in media, conferences, business schools and by organizations all over the world, and this study intends to explain the macroenvironmental changes that led to the rise of the fourth sector, describe new trends of social value creation in the private ...

  10. Chemical Properties and Change. Fourth Grade. Revised. Anchorage School District Elementary Science Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, John, Ed.

    In this unit students are asked to mix materials together and look closely at what happens. From this experience, plus teacher input, they are introduced to the concept that matter is made of small particles which cannot be seen, but can be manipulated. Students learn the difference between a physical and a chemical change and that there are four…

  11. Fourth-dimensional changes in nasolabial dimensions following rotation-advancement repair of unilateral cleft lip.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulliken, John B; LaBrie, Richard A

    2012-02-01

    Repair of unilateral cleft lip requires three-dimensional craftsmanship and understanding four-dimensional changes. Ninety-nine children with unilateral complete or incomplete cleft lip were measured by direct anthropometry following rotation-advancement repair (intraoperatively) and again in childhood. Changes in heminasal width, labial height, and labial width were analyzed and compared measures depending on whether the cleft was incomplete/complete or involved left/right side. Average heminasal width (sn-al) was set 1 mm less on the cleft side and measured only 0.7 mm less at 6 years. Labial height (sn-cphi) was slightly greater on the cleft side at repair and matched the noncleft side at follow-up. Vertical dimension (sbal-cphi) was slightly less at operation; the percent change was the same on both sides. Transverse labial width (cphi-ch) was set short on the cleft side and lengthened disproportionately, resulting in less than 1 mm difference at 6 years. All anthropometric dimensions grew less in complete cleft lips compared with incomplete forms; however, only labial height and width were significantly different. There were no disparities in nasolabial growth between left- and right-sided cleft lips. Cleft side alar base drifts laterally and should be positioned slightly more medial and secured to nasalis or periosteum. Growth in labial height lags and, therefore, the repaired side should be equal to or slightly greater than on the normal side, particularly in a complete labial cleft. Transverse labial width grows more on the cleft side; thus, lateral Cupid's bow peak point can be marked closer to the commissure to match the labial height on the noncleft side. Therapeutic, IV.

  12. Investigating Changing in Social Studies Textbooks of Public Review (Basic Fourth and Fifth) Based on the Emphasis on Critical Thinking Skills Facione in the Last Three Decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aghababaeian, Parinaz; Moghaddam, Shams Aldin Hashemi; Nateghi, Faezeh; Faghihi, Alireza

    2017-01-01

    This study investigated the changes in public school social studies textbooks in general period of Iran (fourth and fifth grades) based on the emphasis on Facione critical thinking skills in the past three decades. In this study, content analysis of qualitative and quantitative methods was used to evaluate changes in textbook. For this purpose,…

  13. Comparison among cognitive diagnostic models for the TIMSS 2007 fourth grade mathematics assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaguchi, Kazuhiro; Okada, Kensuke

    2018-01-01

    A variety of cognitive diagnostic models (CDMs) have been developed in recent years to help with the diagnostic assessment and evaluation of students. Each model makes different assumptions about the relationship between students' achievement and skills, which makes it important to empirically investigate which CDMs better fit the actual data. In this study, we examined this question by comparatively fitting representative CDMs to the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) 2007 assessment data across seven countries. The following two major findings emerged. First, in accordance with former studies, CDMs had a better fit than did the item response theory models. Second, main effects models generally had a better fit than other parsimonious or the saturated models. Related to the second finding, the fit of the traditional parsimonious models such as the DINA and DINO models were not optimal. The empirical educational implications of these findings are discussed.

  14. Comparison among cognitive diagnostic models for the TIMSS 2007 fourth grade mathematics assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazuhiro Yamaguchi

    Full Text Available A variety of cognitive diagnostic models (CDMs have been developed in recent years to help with the diagnostic assessment and evaluation of students. Each model makes different assumptions about the relationship between students' achievement and skills, which makes it important to empirically investigate which CDMs better fit the actual data. In this study, we examined this question by comparatively fitting representative CDMs to the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS 2007 assessment data across seven countries. The following two major findings emerged. First, in accordance with former studies, CDMs had a better fit than did the item response theory models. Second, main effects models generally had a better fit than other parsimonious or the saturated models. Related to the second finding, the fit of the traditional parsimonious models such as the DINA and DINO models were not optimal. The empirical educational implications of these findings are discussed.

  15. Patient-selected goals: the fourth dimension in assessment of pelvic floor disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowenstein, Lior; FitzGerald, Mary P; Kenton, Kimberly; Dooley, Yashika; Templehof, Mike; Mueller, Elizabeth R; Brubaker, Linda

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to assess the relationship between self-expressed urogynecologic goals, symptoms, and treatment choice. Charts of women presenting for urogynecology consultation were reviewed. Demographics, diagnoses and responses to the pelvic floor distress inventory and medical, social, and epidemiologic aspects of aging questionnaires were recorded. Patients listed urogynecology goals before consultation. We categorized goals into five categories and then compared these categories by symptom type, severity, and treatment. Three hundred five women reported 635 goals (median 2, range 1-6). The number of goals listed per patient did not differ by age, race, comorbidities, or clinical diagnosis (p > 0.05). The most frequent goal category was symptoms (67%), followed by information seeking (12%), lifestyle (11%), emotional (4%), and "other" (6%). Women selecting non-surgical treatment were more likely to list information seeking as primary goal than those who chose surgery (p = 0.009). One third of participants expressed a primary non-symptom goal and were more likely to seek non-surgical therapy.

  16. What Form of Mathematics Are Assessments Assessing? The Case of Multiplication and Division in Fourth Grade NAEP Items

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosko Karl W.; Singh, Rashmi

    2018-01-01

    Multiplicative reasoning is a key concept in elementary school mathematics. Item statistics reported by the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) assessment provide the best current indicator for how well elementary students across the U.S. understand this, and other concepts. However, beyond expert reviews and statistical analysis,…

  17. Neurosurgery. Fourth edition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simon, L.; Thomas, D.G.T.; Clark, W.K.

    1987-01-01

    The Fourth Edition of this volume in the Operative Surgery Series has been considerably revised to accommodate the many changes which have changed the practice of neurosurgery in the past eight years. There have been advances in technology, such as the wider application of CT scanning, in surgical technique, and in the design of new implantable materials. All these developments have substantially affected both the practice of neurosurgery and the prognosis for the patient and are fully reflected in the new edition

  18. Robot vs. tax inspector or how the fourth industrial revolution will change the tax system: a review of problems and solutions

    OpenAIRE

    Vishnevsky, Valentine P.; Chekina, Viktoriia D.

    2018-01-01

    The Fourth Industrial Revolution and the accelerated development of cyber-physical technologies lead to essential changes in national tax systems and international taxation. The main areas in which taxation meets cyber-physical technologies are digitalization, robotization, M2M and blockchain technologies. Each of these areas has its own opportunities and problems. Three main approaches towards possible solutions for these new problems are identified. The first is to try to apply taxation to ...

  19. Mixing two sets of noisy measurements changes the N-dependence of resolution to a fourth-root power law

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahani, Alireza S; Carlsson, A E; Wessel, R

    2004-01-01

    If noise is uncorrelated during repeated measurements of the same physical variable, averaging these measurements improves the accuracy of estimating the variable. When two values of a variable are measured separately, the smallest separation of these two values that can be discriminated with a certain reliability (resolution) is inversely proportional to the square root of the number of measurements employed. However, if measurements for these two values are mixed together, they need to be clustered before being averaged. Distinguishing mixed clusters with small separations can be thought of as a problem of deciding the number of components in a finite mixture model. Using the likelihood ratio, the second-moment estimator, and the k-means clustering methods, we will show that a similarly defined resolution for the mixed scenario is, approximately, inversely proportional to the fourth-root of the number of measurements. The observed fourth-root law is explained in terms of some more intuitive properties of the problem. We also conclude that, assuming that the fourth-root law is universal, the methods reported here are near-optimal

  20. Integrated assessment of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgan, M.G.

    1994-01-01

    Many researchers are working on all the separate parts of the climate problem. The objective of integrated assessment is to put the results from this work together in order to look carefully at the big picture so as to: (1) keep a proper sense of perspective about the problem, since climate change will occur in the presence of many other natural and human changes; (2) develop the understanding necessary to support informed decision making by many different key public and private actors around the world; and (3) assure that the type and mix of climate-related research that is undertaken will be as useful as possible to decisions makers in both the near and long term. This paper outlines a set of design guidelines for formulating integrated assessment programs and projects and then outlines some of the current problems and opportunities. Selected points are illustrated by drawing on results from the integrated assessment research now in progress at Carnegie Mellon University

  1. Fourth annual report 1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-01-01

    The Independent Radiation Monitoring Scheme for Clwyd began its monitoring programme in Clwyd in 1988. This is the fourth report on the results of the radiation monitoring carried out within Clwyd. The historical reasons for the conception of the Radiation Monitoring Scheme are given in the First Annual Report together with the protocol of operation and detailed sampling and monitoring information. The fourth Annual Report identifies any changes in techniques that have occurred in the last twelve months together with the latest monitoring and analytical data. Samples of air, beach materials, coastal sand and silt, seaweed, meat, fish and milk were taken from various locations within the county. No significant charges in radiation levels were found when compared with data from previous years. The values have remained within the range currently being expected throughout the United Kingdom. (author)

  2. Climate change: a political assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Keefe, W. [Solutions Consulting (USA)

    2000-07-01

    The paper consists of the author's personal remarks on a political assessment of climate change policy in the United States. The author focuses on four major political forces; environmental organisations, the Clinton-Gore administration, the U.S. senate and the business community. The author considers that much of the climate change debate is scaremongering by the environmentalists with little scientific basis. There is a need for business to present its case better if it is to avoid economically damaging, but unjustified environmental regulations.

  3. Assessment of Change in Psychoanalysis: Another Way of Using the Change After Psychotherapy Scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pires, António Pazo; Gonçalves, João; Sá, Vânia; Silva, Andrea; Sandell, Rolf

    2016-04-01

    A systematic method is presented whereby material from a full course of psychoanalytic treatment is analyzed to assess changes and identify patterns of change. Through an analysis of session notes, changes were assessed using the CHange After Psychotherapy scales (CHAP; Sandell 1987a), which evaluate changes in five rating variables (symptoms, adaptive capacity, insight, basic conflicts, and extratherapeutic factors). Change incidents were identified in nearly every session. Early in the analysis, relatively more change incidents related to insight were found than were found for the other types of change. By contrast, in the third year and part of the fourth year, relatively more change incidents related to basic conflicts and adaptive capacity were found. While changes related to symptoms occurred throughout the course of treatment, such changes were never more frequent than other types of change. A content analysis of the change incidents allowed a determination of when in the treatment the patient's main conflicts (identified clinically) were overcome. A crossing of quantitative data with clinical and qualitative data allowed a better understanding of the patterns of change. © 2016 by the American Psychoanalytic Association.

  4. New Zealand's Fourth National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Including the Report on the Global Climate Observing System and the Report on Demonstrable Progress under the Kyoto Protocol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-03-01

    The New Zealand Government is committed to playing its part in the global response to climate change. This Fourth National Communication provides a snapshot of New Zealand's progress with implementing the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This document covers the period from the submission of the Third National Communication in January 2002 through to the end of December 2005. This document also contains New Zealand's Report on the Global Climate Observing System and the Report on Demonstrable Progress under the Kyoto Protocol. New Zealand's response to climate change has evolved substantially since the Third National Communication was submitted. On 19 December 2002, New Zealand became the 101st nation to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. In 2002, the New Zealand Parliament passed the Climate Change Response Act. This Act established a New Zealand climate change registry and corresponding institutional arrangements in accordance with Kyoto Protocol requirements. Other achievements are detailed throughout this Fourth National Communication. When the Government introduced its climate change policy package in 2002, it anticipated there would be three reviews of the package not later than 2005, 2007 and 2010. The reviews would be necessary to monitor progress with emissions reductions, assess the effectiveness of policies, and confirm that New Zealand was positioned to meet its commitments. The first of these reviews was commissioned by the Government in mid-2005 and completed by November 2005. The review concluded that some elements of the Government's 2002 climate change policy package should be modified to better position New Zealand to respond to the longer-term challenges of climate change. A key outcome of the policy review was the announcement by the newly elected Government in December 2005 that the previously announced carbon tax would not proceed. In addition, a suite of future work programmes would be required to inform Government

  5. Contribution of the working group 2 to the fourth evaluation report of the inter government expert group on the climatic change. Evaluation 2007 of the climatic changes: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    This document exposes the results of the fourth evaluation report of the working group II of the inter government experts group on the climatic change. This evaluation presents the today scientific understanding of the climatic change impacts on the humans and their adaptation ability and vulnerability. It is based on the GIEC evaluations and new knowledge added since the third evaluation report. (A.L.B.)

  6. Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

  7. Ecological risk assessment in the context of global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

    2013-01-01

    Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause-effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses-include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  8. Cognitive Development and Down Syndrome: Age-Related Change on the Stanford-Binet Test (Fourth Edition)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couzens, Donna; Cuskelly, Monica; Haynes, Michele

    2011-01-01

    Growth models for subtests of the Stanford-Binet Intelligence Scale, 4th edition (R. L. Thorndike, E. P. Hagen, & J. M. Sattler, 1986a, 1986b) were developed for individuals with Down syndrome. Models were based on the assessments of 208 individuals who participated in longitudinal and cross-sectional research between 1987 and 2004. Variation…

  9. CALTRANS CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    The following report was developed for the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) to summarize a vulnerability assessment conducted for assets in Caltrans District 4. The assessment was developed to specifically identify the potential eff...

  10. Pretraining and posttraining assessment of residents' performance in the fourth accreditation council for graduate medical education competency: patient communication skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandawarkar, Rajiv Y; Ruscher, Kimberly A; Krajewski, Aleksandra; Garg, Manish; Pfeiffer, Carol; Singh, Rekha; Longo, Walter E; Kozol, Robert A; Lesnikoski, Beth; Nadkarni, Prakash

    2011-08-01

    Structured communication curricula will improve surgical residents' ability to communicate effectively with patients. A prospective study approved by the institutional review board involved 44 University of Connecticut general surgery residents. Residents initially completed a written baseline survey to assess general communication skills awareness. In step 1 of the study, residents were randomized to 1 of 2 simulations using standardized patient instructors to mimic patients receiving a diagnosis of either breast or rectal cancer. The standardized patient instructors scored residents' communication skills using a case-specific content checklist and Master Interview Rating Scale. In step 2 of the study, residents attended a 3-part interactive program that comprised (1) principles of patient communication; (2) experiences of a surgeon (role as physician, patient, and patient's spouse); and (3) role-playing (3-resident groups played patient, physician, and observer roles and rated their own performance). In step 3, residents were retested as in step 1, using a crossover case design. Scores were analyzed using Wilcoxon signed rank test with a Bonferroni correction. Case-specific performance improved significantly, from a pretest content checklist median score of 8.5 (65%) to a posttest median of 11.0 (84%) (P = .005 by Wilcoxon signed rank test for paired ordinal data)(n = 44). Median Master Interview Rating Scale scores changed from 58.0 before testing (P = .10) to 61.5 after testing (P = .94). Difference between overall rectal cancer scores and breast cancer scores also were not significant. Patient communication skills need to be taught as part of residency training. With limited training, case-specific skills (herein, involving patients with cancer) are likely to improve more than general communication skills.

  11. Assessment of the cost-effectiveness and clinical outcomes of a fourth-generation synchronous telehealth program for the management of chronic cardiovascular disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Yi-Lwun; Yu, Jiun-Yu; Lin, Yen-Hung; Chen, Ying-Hsien; Huang, Ching-Chang; Hsu, Tse-Pin; Chuang, Pao-Yu; Hung, Chi-Sheng; Chen, Ming-Fong

    2014-06-10

    Telehealth programs are a growing field in the care of patients. The evolution of information technology has resulted in telehealth becoming a fourth-generation synchronous program. However, long-term outcomes and cost-effectiveness analysis of fourth-generation telehealth programs have not been reported in patients with chronic cardiovascular diseases. We conducted this study to assess the clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of a fourth-generation synchronous telehealth program for patients with chronic cardiovascular diseases. We retrospectively analyzed 575 patients who had joined a telehealth program and compared them with 1178 patients matched for sex, age, and Charlson comorbidity index. The program included: (1) instant transmission of biometric data, (2) daily telephone interview, and (3) continuous decision-making support. Data on hospitalization, emergency department (ED) visits, and medical costs were collected from the hospital's database and were adjusted to the follow-up months. The mean age was 64.5 years (SD 16.0). The mean number of monthly ED visits (mean 0.06 SD 0.13 vs mean 0.09 SD 0.23, P<.001), hospitalizations (mean 0.05 SD 0.12 vs mean 0.11 SD 0.21, P<.001), length of hospitalization (mean 0.77 days SD 2.78 vs mean 1.4 SD 3.6, P<.001), and intensive care unit admissions (mean 0.01 SD 0.07 vs mean 0.036 SD 0.14, P<.001) were lower in the telehealth group. The monthly mean costs of ED visits (mean US$20.90 SD 66.60 vs mean US$37.30 SD 126.20, P<.001), hospitalizations (mean US$386.30 SD 1424.30 vs mean US$878.20 SD 2697.20, P<.001), and all medical costs (mean US$587.60 SD 1497.80 vs mean US$1163.60 SD 3036.60, P<.001) were lower in the telehealth group. The intervention costs per patient were US$224.80 per month. Multivariate analyses revealed that age, telehealth care, and Charlson index were the independent factors for ED visits, hospitalizations, and length of hospitalization. A bootstrap method revealed the dominant cost

  12. At The Threshold Of The Fourth Industrial Revolution: Sustainable Initiatives In Brazilian Industries In The Context Of Anthropogenic Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Zaleski Neto

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The complexityand multiplicity of the possible interactions involved in the phenomenon of anthropogenicclimate change make it difficult, even for eminent scientists, to be absolutelycertain regarding the occurrence of global climate change and its consequences.Nevertheless, there is a consensus that the crisis is already here.  While top-down solutions to this problem arebeing discussed, this paper addresses the bottom-up approach to reducing GHGemissions.   On investigating thebehavior of three leading companies in the drinks, food and paint sector, whichare proactive specifically in relation to the problem of global climate changeand regarding sustainability in general, this study identifies the bestpractices and documents and disseminates them with a view to their implementationin other organizations.   With the use ofa tool containing 51 variables, which are each associated with five scenarios,it was possible to identify the degree to which the companies meet thechallenges imposed by the search for sustainability.  In this context, the overall objective ofthis study was to investigate and identify the behavior of three large companieswhich are leaders in their sector with regard to sustainability and,specifically, their actions aimed at reducing the effects of anthropogenicclimate change.

  13. The Effects of Multiple-Step and Single-Step Directions on Fourth and Fifth Grade Students' Grammar Assessment Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazerik, Matthew B.

    2006-01-01

    The mean scores of English Language Learners (ELL) and English Only (EO) students in 4th and 5th grade (N = 110), across the teacher-administered Grammar Skills Test, were examined for differences in participants' scores on assessments containing single-step directions and assessments containing multiple-step directions. The results indicated no…

  14. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  15. Achieving social change on gender-based violence: a report on the impact evaluation of Soul City's fourth series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usdin, S; Scheepers, E; Goldstein, Susan; Japhet, Garth

    2005-12-01

    The Soul City Institute for Health and Development Communication--a South African multi-media health promotion project--together with the National Network on Violence Against Women, formulated an intervention to address domestic violence. Recognising that behavioural change interventions aimed solely at individuals have limited impact, the intervention was designed to impact at multiple mutually reinforcing levels; individual, community and socio-political environment. The intervention and its evaluation results are presented. Soul City successfully reached 86%, 25% and 65% of audiences through television, print booklets and radio, respectively. On an individual level there was a shift in knowledge around domestic violence including 41% of respondents hearing about the helpline. Attitude shifts were also associated with the intervention, with a 10% increase in respondents disagreeing that domestic violence was a private affair. There was also a 22% shift in perceptions of social norms on this issue. Qualitative data analysis suggests the intervention played a role in enhancing women's and communities' sense of efficacy, enabling women to make more effective decisions around their health and facilitating community action. The evaluation concluded that implementation of the Domestic Violence Act can largely be attributed to the intervention. While demonstrating actual reductions in levels of domestic violence was not possible, the evaluation shows a strong association between exposure to intervention components and a range of intermediary factors indicative of, and necessary to bring about social change. This paper reports on the evaluation, discusses its limitations and challenges as well as lessons learned regarding multi-level interventions on domestic violence.

  16. Patterns of Resistance in Managing Assessment Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deneen, Christopher; Boud, David

    2014-01-01

    Achieving change in assessment practices in higher education is difficult. One of the reasons for this is resistance among those responsible for teaching and assessing. This paper seeks to explore this resistance through an analysis of staff dialogue during a major attempt to change the assessment practices at one institution. An institution-wide…

  17. Change point analysis and assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Müller, Sabine; Neergaard, Helle; Ulhøi, John Parm

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this article is to develop an analytical framework for studying processes such as continuous innovation and business development in high-tech SME clusters that transcends the traditional qualitative-quantitative divide. It integrates four existing and well-recognized approaches...... to studying events, processes and change, mamely change-point analysis, event-history analysis, critical-incident technique and sequence analysis....

  18. Proceedings of the twenty-fourth water reactor safety information meeting. Volume 3: PRA and HRA; Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and seismic siting criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monteleone, S.

    1997-02-01

    This three-volume report contains papers presented at the Twenty-Fourth Water Reactor Safety Information Meeting held at the Bethesda Marriott Hotel, Bethesda, Maryland, October 21--23, 1996. The papers are printed in the order of their presentation in each session and describe progress and results of programs in nuclear safety research conducted in this country and abroad. Foreign participation in the meeting included papers presented by researchers from Czech Republic, Finland, France, Japan, Norway, Russia and United Kingdom. This volume is divided into the following sections: PRA and HRA and probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and seismic siting criteria. Selected papers are indexed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database

  19. Proceedings of the twenty-fourth water reactor safety information meeting. Volume 3: PRA and HRA; Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and seismic siting criteria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monteleone, S. [comp.] [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1997-02-01

    This three-volume report contains papers presented at the Twenty-Fourth Water Reactor Safety Information Meeting held at the Bethesda Marriott Hotel, Bethesda, Maryland, October 21--23, 1996. The papers are printed in the order of their presentation in each session and describe progress and results of programs in nuclear safety research conducted in this country and abroad. Foreign participation in the meeting included papers presented by researchers from Czech Republic, Finland, France, Japan, Norway, Russia and United Kingdom. This volume is divided into the following sections: PRA and HRA and probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and seismic siting criteria. Selected papers are indexed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database.

  20. Secondary School Results for the Fourth NAEP Mathematics Assessment: Discrete Mathematics, Data Organization and Interpretation, Measurement, Number and Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Catherine A.; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Suggests that secondary school students seem to have reasonably good procedural knowledge in areas of mathematics as rational numbers, probability, measurement, and data organization and interpretation. It appears, however, that students are lacking the conceptual knowledge enabling them to successfully do the assessment items on applications,…

  1. Concurrent validity of persian version of wechsler intelligence scale for children - fourth edition and cognitive assessment system in patients with learning disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rostami, Reza; Sadeghi, Vahid; Zarei, Jamileh; Haddadi, Parvaneh; Mohazzab-Torabi, Saman; Salamati, Payman

    2013-04-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the Persian version of the wechsler intelligence scale for children - fourth edition (WISC-IV) and cognitive assessment system (CAS) tests, to determine the correlation between their scales and to evaluate the probable concurrent validity of these tests in patients with learning disorders. One-hundered-sixty-two children with learning disorder who were presented at Atieh Comprehensive Psychiatry Center were selected in a consecutive non-randomized order. All of the patients were assessed based on WISC-IV and CAS scores questionnaires. Pearson correlation coefficient was used to analyze the correlation between the data and to assess the concurrent validity of the two tests. Linear regression was used for statistical modeling. The type one error was considered 5% in maximum. There was a strong correlation between total score of WISC-IV test and total score of CAS test in the patients (r=0.75, Ptest in children with learning disorders. A concurrent validity is established between the two tests and their scales.

  2. The fourth dimension

    CERN Document Server

    Rucker, Rudy

    2014-01-01

    ""This is an invigorating book, a short but spirited slalom for the mind."" - Timothy Ferris, The New York Times Book Review ""Highly readable. One is reminded of the breadth and depth of Hofstadter's Gödel, Escher, Bach."" - Science""Anyone with even a minimal interest in mathematics and fantasy will find The Fourth Dimension informative and mind-dazzling... [Rucker] plunges into spaces above three with a zest and energy that is breathtaking."" - Martin Gardner ""Those who think the fourth dimension is nothing but time should be encouraged to read The Fourth Dimension, along with anyone else

  3. Climate change vulnerability assessment in Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binita KC; J. Marshall Shepherd; Cassandra Johnson Gaither

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is occurring in the Southeastern United States, and one manifestation is changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events. A vulnerability assessment is performed in the state of Georgia (United States) at the county level from 1975 to 2012 in decadal increments. Climate change vulnerability is typically measured as a function of exposure to physical...

  4. The Development and Validation of an Alternative Assessment to Measure Changes in Understanding of the Longleaf Pine Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dentzau, Michael W.; Martínez, Alejandro José Gallard

    2016-01-01

    A drawing assessment to gauge changes in fourth grade students' understanding of the essential components of the longleaf pine ecosystem was developed to support an out-of-school environmental education program. Pre- and post-attendance drawings were scored with a rubric that was determined to have content validity and reliability among users. In…

  5. The Fourth Revolution: Educating Engineers for Leadership.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark, Hans; Carver, Larry

    1988-01-01

    Urges a change in engineering education for developing leaders. Describes three previous revolutions in American higher education which responded to the needs of the community. Suggests lifelong education as the fourth revolution. (YP)

  6. Climate change vulnerability for species-Assessing the assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheatley, Christopher J; Beale, Colin M; Bradbury, Richard B; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Critchlow, Rob; Thomas, Chris D

    2017-09-01

    Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate-threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend-based rather than purely trait-based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Lifestyle Assessment: Helping Patients Change Health Behaviors

    OpenAIRE

    Ciliska, Donna; Wilson, Douglas M. C.

    1984-01-01

    This article is the second in a series of six on lifestyle assessment and behavior change. The first article presented an assessment tool called FANTASTIC, which has been tested for reliability and is currently in wide use. After assessment, family physicians must help patients decide to change—and give them guidance on how to change—unhealthy behaviors. This article explains how the family physician can use educational, behavioral and relaxation strategies to increase patients' motivation, m...

  8. Assessing species vulnerability to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacifici, Michela; Foden, Wendy B.; Visconti, Piero; Watson, James E. M.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Kovacs, Kit M.; Scheffers, Brett R.; Hole, David G.; Martin, Tara G.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Corlett, Richard T.; Huntley, Brian; Bickford, David; Carr, Jamie A.; Hoffmann, Ary A.; Midgley, Guy F.; Pearce-Kelly, Paul; Pearson, Richard G.; Williams, Stephen E.; Willis, Stephen G.; Young, Bruce; Rondinini, Carlo

    2015-03-01

    The effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly well documented, and many methods have been developed to assess species' vulnerability to climatic changes, both ongoing and projected in the coming decades. To minimize global biodiversity losses, conservationists need to identify those species that are likely to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this Review, we summarize different currencies used for assessing species' climate change vulnerability. We describe three main approaches used to derive these currencies (correlative, mechanistic and trait-based), and their associated data requirements, spatial and temporal scales of application and modelling methods. We identify strengths and weaknesses of the approaches and highlight the sources of uncertainty inherent in each method that limit projection reliability. Finally, we provide guidance for conservation practitioners in selecting the most appropriate approach(es) for their planning needs and highlight priority areas for further assessments.

  9. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  10. Fourth human parechovirus serotype

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benschop, Kimberley S. M.; Schinkel, Janke; Luken, Manon E.; van den Broek, Peter J. M.; Beersma, Matthias F. C.; Menelik, Negassi; van Eijk, Hetty W. M.; Zaaijer, Hans L.; Vandenbroucke-Grauls, Christina M. J. E.; Beld, Marcel G. H. M.; Wolthers, Katja C.

    2006-01-01

    We identified a novel human parechovirus (HPeV) type (K251176-02) from a neonate with fever. Analysis of the complete genome showed K251176-02 to be a new HPeV genotype. Since K251176-02 could not be neutralized with antibodies against known HPeV serotypes 1-3, it should be classified as a fourth

  11. Fourth Generation Reactor Concepts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Furtek, A.

    2008-01-01

    Concerns over energy resources availability, climate changes and energy supply security suggest an important role for nuclear energy in future energy supplies. So far nuclear energy evolved through three generations and is still evolving into new generation that is now being extensively studied. Nuclear Power Plants are producing 16% of the world's electricity. Today the world is moving towards hydrogen economy. Nuclear technologies can provide energy to dissociate water into oxygen and hydrogen and to production of synthetic fuel from coal gasification. The introduction of breeder reactors would turn nuclear energy from depletable energy supply into an unlimited supply. From the early beginnings of nuclear energy in the 1940s to the present, three generations of nuclear power reactors have been developed: First generation reactors: introduced during the period 1950-1970. Second generation: includes commercial power reactors built during 1970-1990 (PWR, BWR, Candu, Russian RBMK and VVER). Third generation: started being deployed in the 1990s and is composed of Advanced LWR (ALWR), Advanced BWR (ABWR) and Passive AP600 to be deployed in 2010-2030. Future advances of the nuclear technology designs can broaden opportunities for use of nuclear energy. The fourth generation reactors are expected to be deployed by 2030 in time to replace ageing reactors built in the 1970s and 1980s. The new reactors are to be designed with a view of the following objectives: economic competitiveness, enhanced safety, minimal radioactive waste production, proliferation resistance. The Generation IV International Forum (GIF) was established in January 2000 to investigate innovative nuclear energy system concepts. GIF members include Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Euratom, France Japan, South Africa, South Korea, Switzerland, United Kingdom and United States with the IAEA and OECD's NEA as permanent observers. China and Russia are expected to join the GIF initiative. The following six systems

  12. assessing climate change impacts on river hydrology

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    71

    model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), in order to evaluate the effect of climate. 24 change on rainfall ... to project future climate data based on the CO2 emission scenarios.The RCMs are of finer ..... Springer Science+Business. 2.

  13. Consideration of environmental change in performance assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinedo, P.; Thorne, M.; Egan, M.; Calvez, M.; Kautsky, U.

    2005-01-01

    Depending on the particular circumstances in which a post-closure performance assessment of a radioactive waste repository is made, it may be appropriate to follow simple or more complex approaches in characterising the biosphere. Several different Example Reference Biospheres were explored in BIOMASS Theme 1 to address a range of issues that arise. Here, consideration is given to Example Reference Biospheres relevant to representing the implications of changes that may occur within the biosphere system during the period over which releases of radionuclides from a disposal facility might take place. Mechanisms of change considered include those extrinsic and intrinsic to the system of interest. An overall methodology for incorporating environmental change into assessments is proposed. This includes screening of primary mechanisms of change; identification of possible time sequences of change; development of a coherent description of the regional landscape response for each time sequence; integration of source term and geosphere-biosphere interface information; identification and description of one or more time series of assessment biospheres; and evaluation of the advantages and disadvantages of simulating the effects of sequences of biosphere systems and the transitions between them, or of defining a set of biosphere systems to be represented individually in a non-sequential analysis. The usefulness of the methodology is explored in two site-specific examples and one generic example

  14. The 2008 California climate change assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, G.

    2008-12-01

    In 2005, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger signed Executive Order S-03-05, which laid the foundation for California's ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation reduction efforts. The 2020 goal is now codified in state law requiring bringing 2020 emissions to the 1990 levels. The Executive Order also mandates the preparation of biennial updates on the latest climate change science, potential impacts, and assessment of the state's efforts to manage its climate change risks through various adaptation options. In 2006, the first of these mandated scientific assessments (The Governor's Scenarios Report) was released. Based on new scientific studies conducted in the interim, the next assessment, the '2008 Governor's Scenarios Report' is currently in preparation. It has three principal goals: (1) to improve the assessment of climate changes for California and associated impacts on key physical and biological indicators; (2) to begin to translate these physical and biological impacts into sectoral economic impacts; and (3) to begin to develop and evaluate strategies for key sectors or regions for adapting to climate changes already underway. Contributors to this session will present some of this new research to the scientific community. Among the most exciting new insights are impacts assessments for the all-important water and agricultural sectors, coastal areas, public health and related air quality and environmental justice issues, the forestry and energy sectors. This presentation will give an overview of the overall effort which will result in about 35 scientific papers from different research institutions in California. All of the studies are interlinked in such a way as to produce a consistent overall assessment.

  15. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Dawson, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment prioriti...

  16. Assessment and the feasibility of improving the artificial lighting system in technical services workshop located in the Fourth South Pars Gas Refinery

    OpenAIRE

    masoud shafiee motlagh; Mohsen Aliabadi; Reza Shahidi; Amin Kahani

    2015-01-01

    Background & Objectives: Desirable and ergonomic lighting in the workplaces has a significant impact on the visual effects and improve the efficiency and productivity of employees. This study aims to evaluate the lighting system and feasibility of improving the artificial lighting system for comfort lighting in the workshop of the Fourth South Pars Gas Refinery. Methods: In this descriptive-analytical study, the environmental conditions of the studied workshop were evaluated and the illum...

  17. Integrated Climate Change Impacts Assessment in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Meyer, R.; Anderson, M.; Bromirski, P. D.

    2014-12-01

    This paper summarizes lessons learned from an ongoing series of climate change assessments for California, conducted by the scientific community and State and local agencies. A series of three Assessments have considered vulnerability and adaptation issues for both managed and natural systems. California's vulnerability is many faceted, arising because of an exceptionally drought prone climate, open coast and large estuary exposure to sea level rise, sensitive ecosystems and complex human footprint and economy. Key elements of the assessments have been a common set of climate and sea-level rise scenarios, based upon IPCC GCM simulations. Regionalized and localized output from GCM projections was provided to research teams investigating water supply, agriculture, coastal resources, ecosystem services, forestry, public health, and energy demand and hydropower generation. The assessment results are helping to investigate the broad range of uncertainty that is inherent in climate projections, and users are becoming better equipped to process an envelope of potential climate and impacts. Some projections suggest that without changes in California's present fresh-water delivery system, serious water shortages would take place, but that technical solutions are possible. Under a warmer climate, wildfire vulnerability is heightened markedly in some areas--estimated increases in burned area by the end of the 21st Century exceed 100% of the historical area burned in much of the forested areas of Northern California Along California coast and estuaries, projected rise in mean sea level will accelerate flooding occurrences, prompting the need for better education and preparedness. Many policymakers and agency personnel in California are factoring in results from the assessments and recognize the need for a sustained assessment process. An ongoing challenge, of course, is to achieve more engagement with a broader community of decision makers, and notably with the private sector.

  18. Fourth-rank cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marrakchi, A.E.L.; Tapia, V.

    1992-05-01

    Some cosmological implications of the recently proposed fourth-rank theory of gravitation are studied. The model exhibits the possibility of being free from the horizon and flatness problems at the price of introducing a negative pressure. The field equations we obtain are compatible with k obs =0 and Ω obs t clas approx. 10 20 t Planck approx. 10 -23 s. When interpreted at the light of General Relativity the treatment is shown to be almost equivalent to that of the standard model of cosmology combined with the inflationary scenario. Hence, an interpretation of the negative pressure hypothesis is provided. (author). 8 refs

  19. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aanund Killingtveit

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Currently, hydropower accounts for close to 16% of the world’s total power supply and is the world’s most dominant (86% source of renewable electrical energy. The key resource for hydropower generation is runoff, which is dependent on precipitation. The future global climate is uncertain and thus poses some risk for the hydropower generation sector. The crucial question and challenge then is what will be the impact of climate change on global hydropower generation and what are the resulting regional variations in hydropower generation potential? This paper is a study that aims to evaluate the changes in global hydropower generation resulting from predicted changes in climate. The study uses an ensemble of simulations of regional patterns of changes in runoff, computed from global circulation models (GCM simulations with 12 different models. Based on these runoff changes, hydropower generation is estimated by relating the runoff changes to hydropower generation potential through geographical information system (GIS, based on 2005 hydropower generation. Hydropower data obtained from EIA (energy generation, national sites, FAO (water resources and UNEP were used in the analysis. The countries/states were used as computational units to reduce the complexities of the analysis. The results indicate that there are large variations of changes (increases/decreases in hydropower generation across regions and even within regions. Globally, hydropower generation is predicted to change very little by the year 2050 for the hydropower system in operation today. This change amounts to an increase of less than 1% of the current (2005 generation level although it is necessary to carry out basin level detailed assessment for local impacts which may differ from the country based values. There are many regions where runoff and hydropower generation will increase due to increasing precipitation, but also many regions where there will be a decrease. Based on this

  20. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Dawson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment priorities for adaptation. The three examples explore interdependencies that arise from (1 climate loading dependence; (2 mediation of two climate impacts by physical processes operating over large spatial extents; and, (3 multiple risks that are influenced by shared climatic and socio-economic drivers. Drawing upon learning from these case studies, and other work, a framework for the analysis and consideration of interdependencies in climate change risk assessment has been developed. This is an iterative learning loop that involves defining the system, scoping interaction mechanisms, applying appropriate modelling tools, identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities, and assessing the performance of adaptation interventions.

  1. Integrated assessment models of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E.A.; Fisher-Vanden, K.

    1997-01-01

    The authors review recent work in the integrated assessment modeling of global climate change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to combine knowledge from multiple disciplines in formal integrated representations; inform policy-making, structure knowledge, and prioritize key uncertainties; and advance knowledge of broad system linkages and feedbacks, particularly between socio-economic and bio-physical processes. They may combine simplified representations of the socio-economic determinants of greenhouse gas emissions, the atmosphere and oceans, impacts on human activities and ecosystems, and potential policies and responses. The authors summarize current projects, grouping them according to whether they emphasize the dynamics of emissions control and optimal policy-making, uncertainty, or spatial detail. They review the few significant insights that have been claimed from work to date and identify important challenges for integrated assessment modeling in its relationships to disciplinary knowledge and to broader assessment seeking to inform policy- and decision-making. 192 refs., 2 figs

  2. Sea level change

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Church, J.A.; Clark, P.U.; Cazenave, A.; Gregory, J.M.; Jevrejeva, S.; Levermann, A.; Merrifield, M.A.; Milne, G.A.; Nerem, R.S.; Nunn, P.D.; Payne, A.J.; Pfeffer, W.T.; Stammer, D.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    This chapter considers changes in global mean sea level, regional sea level, sea level extremes, and waves. Confidence in projections of global mean sea level rise has increased since the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) because of the improved...

  3. Epilepsy & IQ: the clinical utility of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-Fourth Edition (WAIS-IV) indices in the neuropsychological assessment of people with epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baxendale, Sallie; McGrath, Katherine; Thompson, Pamela J

    2014-01-01

    We examined Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-Fourth Edition (WAIS-IV) General Ability Index (GAI) and Full Scale Intelligence Quotient (FSIQ) discrepancies in 100 epilepsy patients; 44% had a significant GAI > FSIQ discrepancy. GAI-FSIQ discrepancies were correlated with the number of antiepileptic drugs taken and duration of epilepsy. Individual antiepileptic drugs differentially interfere with the expression of underlying intellectual ability in this group. FSIQ may significantly underestimate levels of general intellectual ability in people with epilepsy. Inaccurate representations of FSIQ due to selective impairments in working memory and reduced processing speed obscure the contextual interpretation of performance on other neuropsychological tests, and subtle localizing and lateralizing signs may be missed as a result.

  4. Advances in Methods for Assessing Longitudinal Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Kevin J.; Mazza, Gina L.; Mazzocco, Michèle M. M.

    2016-01-01

    Educational research aims to understand how and why students change over time. With its emphasis on within-person change, latent change score models provide educational researchers with a more general and flexible framework for testing nuanced hypotheses regarding within-person change and between-person differences in within-person change. Models…

  5. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J. [eds.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  6. Assessing sensitivity to change: choosing the appropriate change coefficient

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stratford Paul W

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The past 20-years have seen the development and evaluation of many health status measures. Unlike the high standards demanded of those who conduct and report clinical intervention trials, the methodological rigor for studies examining the sensitivity to change of health status measures are less demanding. It is likely that the absence of a criterion standard for change in health status contributes to this shortcoming. To increase confidence in the results of these types of studies investigators have often calculated multiple change coefficients for the same patient sample. The purpose of this report is to identify the conflict that arises when multiple change coefficients are applied to the same patient sample. Three families of change coefficients based on different assumptions concerning the sample composition are identified: (1 the sample is homogeneous with respect to change; (2 subgroups of patients who truly change by different amounts exist; (3 individual patients, many of whom truly change by different amounts exist. We present several analyses which illustrate a major conceptual conflict: the signal (a measure's true ability to detect change for some of these coefficients appears in the noise term (measurement error of the others. We speculate that this dilemma occurs as a result of insufficient preparatory work such as pilot studies to establish the likely change characteristic of the patient population of interest. Uncertainty in the choice of change coefficient could be overcome by conducting pilot studies to ascertain the likely change characteristic of the population of interest. Once the population's change characteristic is identified, the choice of change coefficient should be clear.

  7. Assessing habitat selection when availability changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arthur, S.; Garner, G.; ,

    1996-01-01

    We present a method of comparing data on habitat use and availability that allows availability to differ among observations. This method is applicable when habitats change over time and when animals are unable to move throughout a predetermined study area between observations. We used maximum-likelihood techniques to derive an index that estimates the probability that each habitat type would be used if all were equally available. We also demonstrate how these indices can be used to compare relative use of available habitats, assign them ranks, and assess statistical differences between pairs of indices. The set of these indices for all habitats can be compared between groups of animals that represent different seasons, sex or age classes, or experimental treatments. This method allows quantitative comparisons among types and is not affected by arbitrary decisions about which habitats to include in the study. We provide an example by comparing the availability of four categories of sea ice concentration to their use by adult female polar bears, whose movements were monitored by satellite radio tracking in the Bering and Chukchi Seas during 1990. Use of ice categories by bears was nonrandom, and the pattern of use differed between spring and late summer seasons.

  8. Contribution of the working group 2 to the fourth evaluation report of the inter government expert group on the climatic change. Evaluation 2007 of the climatic changes: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability; Contribution du Groupe de travail 2 au quatrieme rapport d'evaluation du Groupe d'expert intergouvernemental sur l'evolution du climat. Bilan 2007 des changements climatiques: impacts, adaptation et vulnerabilite

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    This document exposes the results of the fourth evaluation report of the working group II of the inter government experts group on the climatic change. This evaluation presents the today scientific understanding of the climatic change impacts on the humans and their adaptation ability and vulnerability. It is based on the GIEC evaluations and new knowledge added since the third evaluation report. (A.L.B.)

  9. Climate change impact assessment on food security in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ettema, Janneke; Aldrian, Edvin; de Bie, Kees; Jetten, Victor; Mannaerts, Chris

    2013-04-01

    As Indonesia is the world's fourth most populous country, food security is a persistent challenge. The potential impact of future climate change on the agricultural sector needs to be addressed in order to allow early implementation of mitigation strategies. The complex island topography and local sea-land-air interactions cannot adequately be represented in large scale General Climate Models (GCMs) nor visualized by TRMM. Downscaling is needed. Using meteorological observations and a simple statistical downscaling tool, local future projections are derived from state-of-the-art, large-scale GCM scenarios, provided by the CMIP5 project. To support the agriculture sector, providing information on especially rainfall and temperature variability is essential. Agricultural production forecast is influenced by several rain and temperature factors, such as rainy and dry season onset, offset and length, but also by daily and monthly minimum and maximum temperatures and its rainfall amount. A simple and advanced crop model will be used to address the sensitivity of different crops to temperature and rainfall variability, present-day and future. As case study area, Java Island is chosen as it is fourth largest island in Indonesia but contains more than half of the nation's population and dominates it politically and economically. The objective is to identify regions at agricultural risk due to changing patterns in precipitation and temperature.

  10. Memory assessment and depression: testing for factor structure and measurement invariance of the Wechsler Memory Scale-Fourth Edition across a clinical and matched control sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pauls, Franz; Petermann, Franz; Lepach, Anja Christina

    2013-01-01

    Between-group comparisons are permissible and meaningfully interpretable only if diagnostic instruments are proved to measure the same latent dimensions across different groups. Addressing this issue, the present study was carried out to provide a rigorous test of measurement invariance. Confirmatory factor analyses were used to determine which model solution could best explain memory performance as measured by the Wechsler Memory Scale-Fourth Edition (WMS-IV) in a clinical depression sample and in healthy controls. Multigroup confirmatory factor analysis was conducted to evaluate the evidence for measurement invariance. A three-factor model solution including the dimensions of auditory memory, visual memory, and visual working memory was identified to best fit the data in both samples, and measurement invariance was partially satisfied. The results supported clinical utility of the WMS-IV--that is, auditory and visual memory performances of patients with depressive disorders are interpretable on the basis of the WMS-IV standardization data. However, possible differences in visual working memory functions between healthy and depressed individuals could restrict comparisons of the WMS-IV working memory index.

  11. USGS science for the Nation's changing coasts; shoreline change assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thieler, E. Robert; Hapke, Cheryl J.

    2011-01-01

    The coastline of the United States features some of the most popular tourist and recreational destinations in the world and is the site of intense residential, commercial, and industrial development. The coastal zone also has extensive and pristine natural areas, with diverse ecosystems providing essential habitat and resources that support wildlife, fish, and human use. Coastal erosion is a widespread process along most open-ocean shores of the United States that affects both developed and natural coastlines. As the coast changes, there are a wide range of ways that change can affect coastal communities, habitats, and the physical characteristics of the coast?including beach erosion, shoreline retreat, land loss, and damage to infrastructure. Global climate change will likely increase the rate of coastal change. A recent study of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast, for example, found that it is virtually certain that sandy beaches will erode faster in the future as sea level rises because of climate change. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is responsible for conducting research on coastal change hazards, understanding the processes that cause coastal change, and developing models to predict future change. To understand and adapt to shoreline change, accurate information regarding the past and present configurations of the shoreline is essential. A comprehensive, nationally consistent analysis of shoreline movement is needed. To meet this national need, the USGS is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean coasts of the conterminous United States and parts of Alaska and Hawaii, as well as the coasts of the Great Lakes.

  12. Assessment and the feasibility of improving the artificial lighting system in technical services workshop located in the Fourth South Pars Gas Refinery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    masoud shafiee motlagh

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background & Objectives: Desirable and ergonomic lighting in the workplaces has a significant impact on the visual effects and improve the efficiency and productivity of employees. This study aims to evaluate the lighting system and feasibility of improving the artificial lighting system for comfort lighting in the workshop of the Fourth South Pars Gas Refinery. Methods: In this descriptive-analytical study, the environmental conditions of the studied workshop were evaluated and the illuminance was measured in both day and night times at 216 points. Based on lighting measurements, a site map was provided. Further, based on current conditions of the workshop, illuminance was estimated using DIALux 4.12 lighting calculations software. In regard to the national recommended limits for industrial lighting and the current luminaires, the different practical, accessible and low cost solutions were presented. Using the mentioned software, the share of each proposed solutions for improving workshop lighting were estimated. Results: The results showed that illuminance of the workshop in day and night times were equal to 197±71.5lx and 160±50.6 lx, respectively. The same results were also acquired by software calculations. Based on the results, lighting system was considered as undesirable lighting system along with need to modifications. Workshop lighting can increase between 260 lx to 405 lx through employing the proposed solutions based on the software predictions. Conclusion: The results confirmed that the low cost and simple solutions can significantly be improved the ergonomic and comfort lighting in the workplace. The use of the specialized tools calculations by experts and designers can be also facilitated the conducting feasibility reliable.

  13. Methods for Assessing Uncertainties in Climate Change, Impacts and Responses (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, M. R.; Swart, R.

    2009-12-01

    Assessing the scientific uncertainties or confidence levels for the many different aspects of climate change is particularly important because of the seriousness of potential impacts and the magnitude of economic and political responses that are needed to mitigate climate change effectively. This has made the treatment of uncertainty and confidence a key feature in the assessments carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Because climate change is very much a cross-disciplinary area of science, adequately dealing with uncertainties requires recognition of their wide range and different perspectives on assessing and communicating those uncertainties. The structural differences that exist across disciplines are often embedded deeply in the corresponding literature that is used as the basis for an IPCC assessment. The assessment of climate change science by the IPCC has from its outset tried to report the levels of confidence and uncertainty in the degree of understanding in both the underlying multi-disciplinary science and in projections for future climate. The growing recognition of the seriousness of this led to the formation of a detailed approach for consistent treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (TAR) [Moss and Schneider, 2000]. However, in completing the TAR there remained some systematic differences between the disciplines raising concerns about the level of consistency. So further consideration of a systematic approach to uncertainties was undertaken for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The basis for the approach used in the AR4 was developed at an expert meeting of scientists representing many different disciplines. This led to the introduction of a broader way of addressing uncertainties in the AR4 [Manning et al., 2004] which was further refined by lengthy discussions among many IPCC Lead Authors, for over a year, resulting in a short summary of a standard approach to be followed for that

  14. SEIZURE PREDICTION: THE FOURTH INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaveri, Hitten P.; Frei, Mark G.; Arthurs, Susan; Osorio, Ivan

    2010-01-01

    The recently convened Fourth International Workshop on Seizure Prediction (IWSP4) brought together a diverse international group of investigators, from academia and industry, including epileptologists, neurosurgeons, neuroscientists, computer scientists, engineers, physicists, and mathematicians who are conducting interdisciplinary research on the prediction and control of seizures. IWSP4 allowed the presentation and discussion of results, an exchange of ideas, an assessment of the status of seizure prediction, control and related fields and the fostering of collaborative projects. PMID:20674508

  15. Fourth Light at Paranal!

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-09-01

    VLT YEPUN Joins ANTU, KUEYEN and MELIPAL It was a historical moment last night (September 3 - 4, 2000) in the VLT Control Room at the Paranal Observatory , after nearly 15 years of hard work. Finally, four teams of astronomers and engineers were sitting at the terminals - and each team with access to an 8.2-m telescope! From now on, the powerful "Paranal Quartet" will be observing night after night, with a combined mirror surface of more than 210 m 2. And beginning next year, some of them will be linked to form part of the unique VLT Interferometer with unparalleled sensitivity and image sharpness. YEPUN "First Light" Early in the evening, the fourth 8.2-m Unit Telescope, YEPUN , was pointed to the sky for the first time and successfully achieved "First Light". Following a few technical exposures, a series of "first light" photos was made of several astronomical objects with the VLT Test Camera. This instrument was also used for the three previous "First Light" events for ANTU ( May 1998 ), KUEYEN ( March 1999 ) and MELIPAL ( January 2000 ). These images served to evaluate provisionally the performance of the new telescope, mainly in terms of mechanical and optical quality. The ESO staff were very pleased with the results and pronounced YEPUN fit for the subsequent commissioning phase. When the name YEPUN was first given to the fourth VLT Unit Telescope, it was supposed to mean "Sirius" in the Mapuche language. However, doubts have since arisen about this translation and a detailed investigation now indicates that the correct meaning is "Venus" (as the Evening Star). For a detailed explanation, please consult the essay On the Meaning of "YEPUN" , now available at the ESO website. The first images At 21:39 hrs local time (01:39 UT), YEPUN was turned to point in the direction of a dense Milky Way field, near the border between the constellations Sagitta (The Arrow) and Aquila (The Eagle). A guide star was acquired and the active optics system quickly optimized the

  16. Association of arsenobetaine with beta-cell function assessed by homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) in nondiabetic Koreans: data from the fourth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) 2008-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baek, Kiook; Lee, Namhoon; Chung, Insung

    2017-01-01

    Arsenic is known as an endocrine disruptor that people are exposed to through various sources such as drinking water and indigestion of marine products. Although some epidemiological and animal studies have reported a correlation between arsenic exposure and diabetes development, there are limited studies regarding the toxic effects of organic arsenic including arsenobetaine on the human body. Here, we analyzed the association between urine arsenobetaine and the homeostasis model assessment of β-cell function (HOMA-β), which is an index for predicting diabetes development and reflecting the function of pancreatic β-cells. In the fourth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES), health and nutrition surveys and screening tests were performed. Of the total survey population, people with confirmed values for urine total arsenic and arsenobetaine were included, and known diabetic patients were excluded. A total 369 participants were finally included in the study. We collected surveys on health, height, body weight, body mass index, blood mercury level, fasting glucose level, and serum insulin level and calculated HOMA index. Owing to sexual discrepancy, we performed sexually stratified analysis. Urine total arsenic and total arsenic minus arsenobetaine was not associated with HOMA-IR and HOMA-β in univariate analysis or in sexually stratified analysis. However, urine arsenobetaine showed a statistically significant relationship with HOMA-β in univariate analysis, and only male participants showed a significant correlation in sexually stratified analysis. In the analysis adjusted for age, BMI, smoking, alcohol drinking, physical activity and blood mercury, the HOMA-β value in the group below the 25th percentile of arsenobetaine was significantly higher than the group between 50 and 75th percentile, while no difference was shown for HOMA-IR. In sexually stratified analysis, The value of HOMA-β was significantly higher in male participants

  17. Bounding CKM mixing with a fourth family

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chanowitz, Michael S.

    2009-01-01

    CKM mixing between third-family quarks and a possible fourth family is constrained by global fits to the precision electroweak data. The dominant constraint is from nondecoupling oblique corrections rather than the vertex correction to Z→bb used in previous analyses. The possibility of large mixing suggested by some recent analyses of flavor-changing neutral-current processes is excluded, but 3-4 mixing of the same order as the Cabbibo mixing of the first two families is allowed.

  18. On a fourth order superlinear elliptic problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ramos

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available We prove the existence of a nonzero solution for the fourth order elliptic equation $$Delta^2u= mu u +a(xg(u$$ with boundary conditions $u=Delta u=0$. Here, $mu$ is a real parameter, $g$ is superlinear both at zero and infinity and $a(x$ changes sign in $Omega$. The proof uses a variational argument based on the argument by Bahri-Lions cite{BL}.

  19. POSTMORTAL CHANGES AND ASSESSMENT OF POSTMORTEM INTERVAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edin Šatrović

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes in a simple way the changes that occur in the body after death.They develop in a specific order, and the speed of their development and their expression are strongly influenced by various endogenous and exogenous factors. The aim of the authors is to indicate the characteristics of the postmortem changes, and their significance in establishing time since death, which can be established precisely within 72 hours. Accurate evaluation of the age of the corpse based on the common changes is not possible with longer postmortem intervals, so the entomological findings become the most significant change on the corpse for determination of the postmortem interval (PMI.

  20. Positional Accuracy Assessment for Effective Shoreline Change ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael

    2016-06-01

    Jun 1, 2016 ... as backdrop in GIS environment. Positional error of ... integrated dataset obviously bore the cumulative effect of the input datasets. ... change. The shoreline, which is the interface between land ... modelling, which enables future shoreline change trend to ..... as gaps due to cloud cover and limitation of the.

  1. Positional Accuracy Assessment for Effective Shoreline Change ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ghana Mining Journal ... Data quality may be expressed in terms of several indicators such as attributes, temporal or positional accuracies. ... It is concluded that for the purpose of shoreline change analysis, such as shoreline change trends, large scale data sources should be used where possible for accurate ...

  2. Changing Assessment--Towards a New Assessment Paradigm Using ICT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redecker, Christine; Johannessen, Oystein

    2013-01-01

    This article discusses how Information and Communication Technologies can support 21st century assessment strategies and what needs to be done to ensure that technological advances support and foster pedagogical innovation. Based on an extensive review of the literature, it provides an overview of current ICT-enabled assessment practices, with a…

  3. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change provides data and information on global and regional land cover change in raster format for...

  4. The regional impacts of climate change: an assessment of vulnerability

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zinyowera, Marufu C; Moss, Richard H; Watson, R. T

    1998-01-01

    .... The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health...

  5. Assessment of changes at Glen Canyon Dam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cherry, D.; McCoy, J.; Crandall, S.

    1991-01-01

    This paper describes the complexity associated with the assessment of financial impacts of proposed and actual short-term restrictions at Glen Canyon Dam. The reasons for these restrictions are discussed as well as the methods used to measure their financial impact to Western Area Power Administration

  6. Beyond Needs Assessments: Marketing as Change Agent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piland, William E.

    1984-01-01

    Views marketing techniques as agents of change providing valuable assistance to community college decision makers. Discusses the importance of a balance among the four P's of marketing (i.e., promotion, price, place, and product); and seven procedural steps in developing a sound marketing strategy. (DMM)

  7. Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: an assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Creutzig, Felix; Ravindranath, N. H.; Berndes, Göran

    2015-01-01

    , provide an update on estimates of technical resource potential and comprehensively identify sustainability effects. Cellulosic feedstocks, increased end-use efficiency, improved land carbon-stock management and residue use, and, when fully developed, BECCS appear as the most promising options, depending...... on development costs, implementation, learning, and risk management. Combined heat and power, efficient biomass cookstoves and small-scale power generation for rural areas can help to promote energy access and sustainable development, along with reduced emissions. We estimate the sustainable technical potential......: Land-use and energy experts, land-use and integrated assessment modelers, human geographers, ecosystem researchers, climate scientists and two different strands of life-cycle assessment experts. We summarize technological options, outline the state-of-the-art knowledge on various climate effects...

  8. Changing the Way We Assess Leadership

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    article is twofold. The first is to present a theory of leader- ship for the circumstances described above. The second is to provide manag - ers with a...between management and leadership . While both management and leadership are necessary, the change and complexity associated with the future demands that...the leadership role takes precedence over the management role. This concept of managerial leadership in an environment full of surprising, novel, messy

  9. Fourth sound of holographic superfluids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yarom, Amos

    2009-01-01

    We compute fourth sound for superfluids dual to a charged scalar and a gauge field in an AdS 4 background. For holographic superfluids with condensates that have a large scaling dimension (greater than approximately two), we find that fourth sound approaches first sound at low temperatures. For condensates that a have a small scaling dimension it exhibits non-conformal behavior at low temperatures which may be tied to the non-conformal behavior of the order parameter of the superfluid. We show that by introducing an appropriate scalar potential, conformal invariance can be enforced at low temperatures.

  10. Fandom and the fourth wall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenna Kathryn Ballinger

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available I use the Teen Wolf fandom as an example to examine the ways social media has created a more complicated, nuanced relationship with fans. The collapse of the fourth wall between fans and The Powers That Be can have both positive and negative impacts, depending on the willingness of participants to maintain mutual respect and engage in meaningful dialogue.

  11. Wisconsin's fourth forest inventory, 1983.

    Science.gov (United States)

    John S. Jr. Spencer; W. Brad Smith; Jerold T. Hahn; Gerhard K. Raile

    1988-01-01

    The fourth inventory of the timber resource of Wisconsin shows that growing-stock volume increased from 11.2 to 15.5 billion cubic feet between 1968 and 1983, and area of timberland increased from 14.5 to 14.8 million acres. Presented are analysis and statistics on forest area and timber volume, growth, mortality, removals, and projections.

  12. Assessing Strategies for Urban Climate Change Adaptation: The Case of Six Metropolitan Cities in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae-Seung Lee

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available As interest in climate change adaptation grows, an increasing number of national and local governments are developing adaptation strategies. This study assesses the strategies for urban climate change adaptation of municipal governments in South Korea. The adaptation plans and budget expenditures of six metropolitan cities in South Korea were compared, based on the Implementation Plan for Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (IPCCAS 2012–2016 and annual expenditure reports of each city. The results show that the actual implementation of these adaptation programs varied vis-à-vis the original plans, in terms of the level of overall expenditure and sector-specific expenditure. The following findings were drawn from the analysis: First, in most cases, the highest adaptation priorities were disaster/infrastructure, water management, and the health sector. Second, actual expenditure on climate change adaptation programs was smaller than the planned budget in the IPCCAS. Third, the prioritized sectors matched for planning and implementation in Seoul, Daegu, Daejeon, and Incheon, but not in Busan and Ulsan. Fourth, the adaptation programs of South Korean metropolitan cities do not seem to have been well-tailored to each case.

  13. Chemotherapy administration directly into the fourth ventricle in a nonhuman primate model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandberg, David I; Peet, M Melissa; Johnson, Mark D; Cole, Phaedra; Koru-Sengul, Tulay; Luqman, Ali W

    2012-05-01

    The authors hypothesized that chemotherapy infusions directly into the fourth ventricle might potentially play a role in treating malignant fourth ventricular tumors. The study tested the safety and pharmacokinetics of short- and long-term infusions of methotrexate into the fourth ventricle in a new nonhuman primate model. Six rhesus monkeys underwent posterior fossa craniectomy and catheter insertion into the fourth ventricle. In Group I (3 animals), catheters were externalized, and lumbar drain catheters were placed simultaneously to assess CSF distribution after short-term methotrexate infusions. In 2 animals, methotrexate (0.5 mg) was infused into the fourth ventricle daily for 5 days. Serial CSF and serum methotrexate levels were measured. The third animal had a postoperative neurological deficit, and the experiment was aborted prior to methotrexate administration. In Group II (3 animals), catheters were connected to a subcutaneously placed port for subsequent long-term methotrexate infusions. In 2 animals, 4 cycles of intraventricular methotrexate, each consisting of 4 daily infusions (0.5 mg), were administered over 8 weeks. The third animal received 3 cycles, and then the experiment was terminated due to self-inflicted wound breakdown. All animals underwent detailed neurological evaluations, MRI, and postmortem histological analysis. No neurological deficits were noted after intraventricular methotrexate infusions. Magnetic resonance images demonstrated catheter placement within the fourth ventricle and no signal changes in the brainstem or cerebellum. Histologically, two Group I animals, one of which did not receive methotrexate, had several small focal areas of brainstem injury. Two Group II animals had a small (≤ 1-mm) focus of axonal degeneration in the midbrain. Intraventricular and meningeal inflammation was noted in 4 animals after methotrexate infusions (one from Group I and all three from Group II). In all Group II animals, inflammation extended

  14. Integrated assessment models of climate change. An incomplete overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowlatabadi, H.

    1995-01-01

    Integrated assessment is a trendy phrase that has recently entered the vocabulary of folks in Washington, DC and elsewhere. The novelty of the term in policy analysis and policy making circles belies the longevity of this approach in the sciences and past attempts at their application to policy issues. This paper is an attempt at providing an overview of integrated assessment with a special focus on policy motivated integrated assessments of climate change. The first section provides an introduction to integrated assessments in general, followed by a discussion of the bounds to the climate change issue. The next section is devoted to a taxonomy of the policy motivated models. Then the integrated assessment effort at Carnegie Mellon is described briefly. A perspective on the challenges ahead in successful representation of natural and social dynamics in integrated assessments of global climate change is presented in the final section. (Author)

  15. Searches for Fourth Generation Fermions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ivanov, A.; /Fermilab

    2011-09-01

    We present the results from searches for fourth generation fermions performed using data samples collected by the CDF II and D0 Detectors at the Fermilab Tevatron p{bar p} collider. Many of these results represent the most stringent 95% C. L. limits on masses of new fermions to-date. A fourth chiral generation of massive fermions with the same quantum numbers as the known fermions is one of the simplest extensions of the SM with three generations. The fourth generation is predicted in a number of theories, and although historically have been considered disfavored, stands in agreement with electroweak precision data. To avoid Z {yields} {nu}{bar {nu}} constraint from LEP I a fourth generation neutrino {nu}{sub 4} must be heavy: m({nu}{sub 4}) > m{sub Z}/2, where m{sub Z} is the mass of Z boson, and to avoid LEP II bounds a fourth generation charged lepton {ell}{sub 4} must have m({ell}{sub 4}) > 101 GeV/c{sup 2}. At the same time due to sizeable radiative corrections masses of fourth generation fermions cannot be much higher the current lower bounds and masses of new heavy quarks t' and b' should be in the range of a few hundred GeV/c{sup 2}. In the four-generation model the present bounds on the Higgs are relaxed: the Higgs mass could be as large as 1 TeV/c{sup 2}. Furthermore, the CP violation is significantly enhanced to the magnitude that might account for the baryon asymmetry in the Universe. Additional chiral fermion families can also be accommodated in supersymmetric two-Higgs-doublet extensions of the SM with equivalent effect on the precision fit to the Higgs mass. Another possibility is heavy exotic quarks with vector couplings to the W boson Contributions to radiative corrections from such quarks with mass M decouple as 1/M{sup 2} and easily evade all experimental constraints. At the Tevatron p{bar p} collider 4-th generation chiral or vector-like quarks can be either produced strongly in pairs or singly via electroweak production, where the

  16. Fourth-generation storage rings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galayda, J. N.

    1999-01-01

    It seems clear that a linac-driven free-electron laser is the accepted prototype of a fourth-generation facility. This raises two questions: can a storage ring-based light source join the fourth generation? Has the storage ring evolved to its highest level of performance as a synchrotrons light source? The answer to the second question is clearly no. The author thinks the answer to the first question is unimportant. While the concept of generations has been useful in motivating thought and effort towards new light source concepts, the variety of light sources and their performance characteristics can no longer be usefully summed up by assignment of a ''generation'' number

  17. The Fourth Way in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vesa Iitti

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This article focuses on the general history of the Fourth Way in Finland. The Fourth Way, or simply ‘the Work’, began as a Greco-Armenian man named Georges Ivanovich Gurdjieff (1866?–1949 gathered groups of pupils in St Petersburg and Moscow in 1912. To these groups, Gurdjieff started to teach what he had learned and synthesized between ca 1896 and 1912 during his travels on spiritual search of Egypt, Crete, Sumeria, Assyria, the Holy Land, Mecca, Ethiopia, Sudan, India, Afghanistan, the northern valleys of Siberia, and Tibet. Neither Gurdjieff nor any of his disciples called themselves a church, a sect, or anything alike, but referred to themselves simply as ‘the Work’, or as ‘the Fourth Way’. The name ‘the Fourth Way’ originates in a Gurdjieffian view that there are essentially three traditional ways of spiritual work: those of a monk, a fakir, and a yogi. These ways do not literally refer to the activities of a monk, a fakir, and a yogi, but to similar types of spiritual work emphasizing exercise of emotion, body, or mind. Gurdjieff’s teaching is a blend of various influences that include Suf­ism, orthodox Christianity, Buddhism, Kabbalah, and general elem­ents of various occult teachings of both the East and the West. Gurdjieff’s teaching is a blend of various influences that include Suf­ism, orthodox Christianity, Buddhism, Kabbalah, and general elem­ents of various occult teachings of both the East and the West. It is a unique combination of cosmology, psychology, theory of evolution, and overall theory and practise aiming to help individ­uals in their efforts towards what is called ‘self-remembering’.

  18. Changing the culture of assessment: the dominance of the summative assessment paradigm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harrison, C.J.; Konings, K.D.; Schuwirth, L.W.; Wass, V.; Vleuten, C.P.M. van der

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Despite growing evidence of the benefits of including assessment for learning strategies within programmes of assessment, practical implementation of these approaches is often problematical. Organisational culture change is often hindered by personal and collective beliefs which

  19. An assessment of the spatial and temporal changes of Mabira ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An assessment of the spatial and temporal changes of Mabira tropical forest ... The non-significant drivers included the low education levels, establishment of ... in the sustainable utilization of forest products and biodiversity conservation.

  20. Climate Change in Environmental Impact Assessment of Renewable Energy Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2012-01-01

    Many renewable energy projects are subject to EIA. However a question that surfaces is what use an impact assessment is when the project is ‘good for the environment’? One of the current topics receiving much attention in impact assessment is climate change and how this factor is integrated...... in impact assessments. This warrants the question: How do we assess the climate change related impacts of a project that inherently has a positive effect on climate? This paper is based on a document study of EIA reports from Denmark. The results show that climate change is included in most of the EIA...... reports reviewed, and that only climate change mitigation is in focus while adaptation is absent. Also the results point to focus on positive impacts, while the indirect negative impacts are less apparent. This leads to a discussion of the results in the light of the purpose of EIA....

  1. Assessment of simulated and projected climate change in Pakistan using IPCC AR4-based AOGCMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saeed, F.; Athar, H.

    2017-11-01

    A detailed spatio-temporal assessment of two basic climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) is carried out using 22 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4)-based atmospheric oceanic general circulation models (AOGCMs) over data-sparse and climatically vulnerable region of Pakistan (20°-37° N and 60°-78° E), for the first time, for the baseline period (1975-1999), as well as for the three projected periods during the twenty-first century centered at 2025-2049, 2050-2074, and 2075-2099, respectively, both on seasonal and on annual bases, under three Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2, A1B, and B1. An ensemble-based approach consisting of the IPCC AR4-based AOGCMs indicates that during the winter season (from December to March), 66% of the models display robust projected increase of winter precipitation by about 10% relative to the baseline period, irrespective of emission scenario and projection period, in the upper northern subregion of Pakistan (latitude > 35° N). The projected robust changes in the temperature by the end of twenty-first century are in the range of 3 to 4 ° C during the winter season and on an annual basis, in the central and western regions of Punjab province, especially in A2 and A1B emission scenarios. In particular, the IPCC AR4 models project a progressive increase in temperature throughout Pakistan, in contrast to spatial distribution of precipitation, where spatially less uniform and robust results for projected periods are obtained on sign of change. In general, changes in both precipitation and temperature are larger in the summer season (JAS) as compared to the winter season in the coming decades, relative to the baseline period. This may require comprehensive long-term strategic policies to adapt and mitigate climate change in Pakistan, in comparison to what is currently envisaged.

  2. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, G; Stone, D

    2016-01-01

    © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts...

  3. Test Review: Wilkinson, G. S., & Robertson, G. J. (2006). Wide Range Achievement Test--Fourth Edition. Lutz, FL: Psychological Assessment Resources. WRAT4 Introductory Kit (Includes Manual, 25 Test/Response Forms [Blue and Green], and Accompanying Test Materials): $243.00

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dell, Cindy Ann; Harrold, Barbara; Dell, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    The Wide Range Achievement Test-Fourth Edition (WRAT4) is designed to provide "a quick, simple, psychometrically sound assessment of academic skills". The test was first published in 1946 by Joseph F. Jastak, with the purpose of augmenting the cognitive performance measures of the Wechsler-Bellevue Scales, developed by David Wechsler.…

  4. Measures for assessing practice change in medical practitioners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakkennes, Sharon; Green, Sally

    2006-12-06

    There are increasing numbers of randomised trials and systematic reviews examining the efficacy of interventions designed to bring about a change in clinical practice. The findings of this research are being used to guide strategies to increase the uptake of evidence into clinical practice. Knowledge of the outcomes measured by these trials is vital not only for the interpretation and application of the work done to date, but also to inform future research in this expanding area of endeavour and to assist in collation of results in systematic reviews and meta-analyses. The objective of this review was to identify methods used to measure change in the clinical practices of health professionals following an intervention aimed at increasing the uptake of evidence into practice. All published trials included in a recent, comprehensive Health Technology Assessment of interventions to implement clinical practice guidelines and change clinical practice (n = 228) formed the sample for this study. Using a standardised data extraction form, one reviewer (SH), extracted the relevant information from the methods and/or results sections of the trials. Measures of a change of health practitioner behaviour were the most common, with 88.8% of trials using these as outcome measures. Measures that assessed change at a patient level, either actual measures of change or surrogate measures of change, were used in 28.8% and 36.7% of studies (respectively). Health practitioners' knowledge and attitudes were assessed in 22.8% of the studies and changes at an organisational level were assessed in 17.6%. Most trials of interventions aimed at changing clinical practice measured the effect of the intervention at the level of the practitioner, i.e. did the practitioner change what they do, or has their knowledge of and/or attitude toward that practice changed? Less than one-third of the trials measured, whether or not any change in practice, resulted in a change in the ultimate end-point of

  5. Assessment of safety culture: Changing regulatory approach in Hungary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ronaky, Jozsef; Toth, Andras

    2002-01-01

    Hungarian Atomic Energy Authority (HAEA) is changing its inspection practice and assessment methods of safety performance and safety culture in operating nuclear facilities. The new approach emphasises integrated team inspection of safety cornerstones and systematic assessment of safety performance of operators. (author)

  6. Using Classroom Assessment To Change Both Teaching and Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steadman, Mimi

    1998-01-01

    Summarizes results of a study on implementation and impact of classroom assessment techniques (CATs) in community colleges, examining how classroom assessment has been applied by teachers, documenting changes in teaching behaviors, and considering costs and benefits. Also examines students' experiences and satisfaction with courses taught using…

  7. Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Forestry Development in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Forestry and forest ecosystem are highly sensitive to climate change.At present,studies about the responses of forests to climate change in China are more focused on physical influences of climate change.This paper firstly divided the key impact factors of climate change on forest and forestry developing into direct factors and indirect factors,and then made an assessment on climate change affecting future forestry development from the aspect of forest products and ecological services.On this basis,the adap...

  8. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hansen, G.E.

    2015-01-01

    Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    Gerrit Hansen

    Global climate change is unequivocal, and greenhouse gas emissions continue rising despite international mitigation efforts. Hence whether and to what extent the impacts of human induced

  9. Assessment of farm households' vulnerability to climate change in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate change is currently an emerging problem in Nigeria. The Niger Delta region presents some vulnerability due to activities of some oil companies. This study provides an assessment of farm households' perception of climate change and vulnerability in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. The data were obtained form ...

  10. Assessing climate change impacts on water balance in the Mount

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A statistical downscaling known for producing station-scale climate information from GCM output was preferred to evaluate the impacts of climate change within the Mount Makiling forest watershed, Philippines. The lumped hydrologic BROOK90 model was utilized for the water balance assessment of climate change ...

  11. Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandryk, M.; Reidsma, P.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2012-01-01

    Towards 2050, climate change is one of the possible drivers that will change the farming landscape, but market, policy and technological development may be at least equally important. In the last decade, many studies assessed impacts of climate change and specific adaptation strategies. However,

  12. U.S. Global Change Research Program National Climate Assessment Global Change Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmes, Curt

    2012-01-01

    The program: a) Coordinates Federal research to better understand and prepare the nation for global change. b) Priori4zes and supports cutting edge scientific work in global change. c) Assesses the state of scientific knowledge and the Nation s readiness to respond to global change. d) Communicates research findings to inform, educate, and engage the global community.

  13. Fourth sound in relativistic superfluidity theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vil'chinskij, S.I.; Fomin, P.I.

    1995-01-01

    The Lorentz-covariant equations describing propagation of the fourth sound in the relativistic theory of superfluidity are derived. The expressions for the velocity of the fourth sound are obtained. The character of oscillation in sound is determined

  14. Intelligence Strategy for Fourth Generation Warfare

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jamison, Edward P

    2006-01-01

    ...." They have named this new era of war "fourth generation warfare." Currently the Department of Defense's intelligence strategy is designed to defeat conventional adversaries vise a fourth generation warfare opponent...

  15. Climate change adaptation impact cost assessment in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    This document reports the works of an inter-departmental group and of sector-based and transverse groups which aimed at assessing the impacts of climate change. After a first contribution about the assessment methodology, the works of sector-based groups and transverse groups are reported. These groups are dealing with agriculture, forest, infrastructures and built environment, tourism, energy, health, water, natural risks (and insurance and adaptation to climatic change in metropolitan France), biodiversity and land. For each of them, challenges, assessment approaches, first results and perspectives are discussed

  16. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-13

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  17. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-01-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

  18. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  19. The fourth dimension simply explained

    CERN Document Server

    Manning, Henry P

    2005-01-01

    To remove the contents of an egg without puncturing its shell or to drink the liquor in a bottle without removing the cork is clearly unthinkable - or is it? Understanding the world of Einstein and curved space requires a logical conception of the fourth dimension.This readable, informative volume provides an excellent introduction to that world, with 22 essays that employ a minimum of mathematics. Originally written for a contest sponsored by Scientific American, these essays are so well reasoned and lucidly written that they were judged to merit publication in book form. Their easily unders

  20. The fourth Board of Governors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1961-01-01

    The General Conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency at its fourth regular session, which was held in Vienna from 20 September to 1 October 1960, elected five Member States to serve a two-year term on the Agency's Board of Governors. The five were Argentina, El Salvador, the Federal Republic of Germany, Iraq and Thailand. The new members succeed Indonesia, the Netherlands, Peru, the United Arab Republic and Venezuela, which were elected for a two-year term by the second session of the General Conference in 1958

  1. Consideration of climate change on environmental impact assessment in Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro, E-mail: aenriquez@draba.org [Escuela de Doctorado, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, UNED, Draba Ingeniería y Consultoría Medioambiental, Cañada Nueva, 29, 28200 San Lorenzo de El Escorial (Spain); Martín-Aranda, Rosa M., E-mail: rmartin@ccia.uned.es [Departamento de Química Inorgánica y Química Técnica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, UNED, Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040, Madrid (Spain); Díaz-Sierra, Rubén, E-mail: sierra@dfmf.uned.es [Departamento de Física Matemática y de Fluidos, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, UNED, Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040, Madrid (Spain)

    2016-02-15

    Most of the projects subject to environmental impact assessment (EIA) are closely related to climate change, as they contribute to or are affected by it. The growing certainty about climate change and its impacts makes its consideration an essential part of the EIA process, as well as in strategic environmental assessment (SEA). This paper examines how climate change (CC) has been taken into account in EIA in Spain through the analysis of 1713 environmental records of decision (RODs) of projects submitted for EIA. In 2013 Spain approved one of the most advanced laws in terms of CC consideration in environmental assessment, although it had not yet accumulated extensive practice on the issue. This contrasts with the situation of countries like Canada or the USA, which have a significant body of experience without specific legal requirements. Only 14% of the RODs analysed included references to CC, and in more than half of the cases it was a mere citation. Thermal power plants, which are subject to specific GHG regulations, show the highest consideration, while transport infrastructures, which are important contributors to CC, show a very low consideration. Almost all the references are related to their contribution to CC, while consideration of the effects of CC is minimal. The increasingly common incorporation of CC into SEA, should not imply its exclusion from EIA, because both processes have different aims and uses. Including the obligation to consider CC in the EIA regulations is highly desirable, but probably not enough without other measures, such as practical guidance, training and motivational programmes for practitioners and evaluators. But even these actions cannot ensure effective and adequate assessments of CC. Probably more resources should be spent on creating greater awareness in all the agents involved in EIA. - Highlights: • We analyse how the climate change is considered in EIA in Spain. • Few projects seriously assess climate change.

  2. Consideration of climate change on environmental impact assessment in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro; Martín-Aranda, Rosa M.; Díaz-Sierra, Rubén

    2016-01-01

    Most of the projects subject to environmental impact assessment (EIA) are closely related to climate change, as they contribute to or are affected by it. The growing certainty about climate change and its impacts makes its consideration an essential part of the EIA process, as well as in strategic environmental assessment (SEA). This paper examines how climate change (CC) has been taken into account in EIA in Spain through the analysis of 1713 environmental records of decision (RODs) of projects submitted for EIA. In 2013 Spain approved one of the most advanced laws in terms of CC consideration in environmental assessment, although it had not yet accumulated extensive practice on the issue. This contrasts with the situation of countries like Canada or the USA, which have a significant body of experience without specific legal requirements. Only 14% of the RODs analysed included references to CC, and in more than half of the cases it was a mere citation. Thermal power plants, which are subject to specific GHG regulations, show the highest consideration, while transport infrastructures, which are important contributors to CC, show a very low consideration. Almost all the references are related to their contribution to CC, while consideration of the effects of CC is minimal. The increasingly common incorporation of CC into SEA, should not imply its exclusion from EIA, because both processes have different aims and uses. Including the obligation to consider CC in the EIA regulations is highly desirable, but probably not enough without other measures, such as practical guidance, training and motivational programmes for practitioners and evaluators. But even these actions cannot ensure effective and adequate assessments of CC. Probably more resources should be spent on creating greater awareness in all the agents involved in EIA. - Highlights: • We analyse how the climate change is considered in EIA in Spain. • Few projects seriously assess climate change.

  3. LEADING CHANGES IN ASSESSMENT USING AN EVIDENCE BASED APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. O. Macaulay

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and objectivesIt is has been widely accepted that assessment of learning is a critical component of education and that assessment drives/guides student learning through shaping study habits and student approaches to learning. However, although most academics would agree that assessment is a critical aspect of their roles as teachers it is often an aspect of teaching that is regarded more as an additional task rather than an integral component of the teaching/learning continuum. An additional impediment to high quality assessment is the non-evidence based-approach to the decision making process. The overall aim of this project was to improve the quality of assessment in Biochemistry and Molecular Biology undergraduate education by promoting high quality assessment.Materials and methodsTo do this we developed and trialled an audit tool for mapping assessment practices. The audit tool was designed to gather data on current assessment practices and identify areas of good practice in which assessment aligned with the learning objectives and areas in need of improvement. This evidence base will then be used to drive change in assessment.Results and conclusionsUsing the assessment mapping tool we have mapped the assessment regime in a Biochemistry and Molecular Biology major at Monash University. Criteria used included: assessment type, format, timing, assessors, provision of feedback, level of learning (Bloom’s, approaches taken to planning assessment. We have mapped assessment of content and the systematic development of higher order learning and skills progression throughout the program of study. The data has enabled us to examine the assessment at unit (course level as well as the vertical development across the major. This information is now being used to inform a review of the units and the major.

  4. Communicating uncertainty: lessons learned and suggestions for climate change assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patt, A.; Dessai, S.

    2005-01-01

    Assessments of climate change face the task of making information about uncertainty accessible and useful to decision-makers. The literature in behavior economics provides many examples of how people make decisions under conditions of uncertainty relying on inappropriate heuristics, leading to inconsistent and counterproductive choices. Modern risk communication practices recommend a number of methods to overcome these hurdles, which have been recommended for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports. This paper evaluates the success of the most recent IPCC approach to uncertainty communication, based on a controlled survey of climate change experts. Evaluating the results from the survey, and from a similar survey recently conducted among university students, the paper suggests that the most recent IPCC approach leaves open the possibility for biased and inconsistent responses to the information. The paper concludes by suggesting ways to improve the approach for future IPCC assessment reports. (authors)

  5. Assessing organizational change in multisector community health alliances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Jeffrey A; Hearld, Larry R; Shi, Yunfeng

    2015-02-01

    The purpose of this article was to identify some common organizational features of multisector health care alliances (MHCAs) and the analytic challenges presented by those characteristics in assessing organizational change. Two rounds of an Internet-based survey of participants in 14 MHCAs. We highlight three analytic challenges that can arise when quantitatively studying the organizational characteristics of MHCAs-assessing change in MHCA organization, assessment of construct reliability, and aggregation of individual responses to reflect organizational characteristics. We illustrate these issues using a leadership effectiveness scale (12 items) validated in previous research and data from 14 MHCAs participating in the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation's Aligning Forces for Quality (AF4Q) program. High levels of instability and turnover in MHCA membership create challenges in using survey data to study changes in key organizational characteristics of MHCAs. We offer several recommendations to diagnose the source and extent of these problems. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  6. Taking the uncertainty in climate-change vulnerability assessment seriously

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patt, A.; Patt, A.; Klein, R.J.T.; Vega-Leinert, A. de la

    2005-01-01

    Climate-change vulnerability assessment has become a frequently employed tool, with the purpose of informing policy-makers attempting to adapt to global change conditions. However, we suggest that there are three reasons to suspect that vulnerability assessment often promises more certainty, and more useful results, than it can deliver. First, the complexity of the system it purports to describe is greater than that described by other types of assessment. Second, it is difficult, if not impossible, to obtain data to test proposed interactions between different vulnerability drivers. Third, the time scale of analysis is too long to be able to make robust projections about future adaptive capacity. We analyze the results from a stakeholder workshop in a European vulnerability assessment, and find evidence to support these arguments. (authors)

  7. Assessing local vulnerability to climate change in Ecuador

    OpenAIRE

    Fernandez, Mario Andres; Bucaram, Santiago J.; Renteria, Willington

    2015-01-01

    Vulnerability assessments have become necessary to increase the understanding of climate-sensitive systems and inform resource allocation in developing countries. Challenges arise when poor economic and social development combines with heterogeneous climatic conditions. Thus, finding and harmonizing good-quality data at local scale may be a significant hurdle for vulnerability research. In this paper we assess vulnerability to climate change at a local level in Ecuador. We take Ecuador as a c...

  8. Assessing Power System Stability Following Load Changes and Considering Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Ngo

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available An increase in load capacity during the operation of a power system usually causes voltage drop and leads to system instability, so it is necessary to monitor the effect of load changes. This article presents a method of assessing the power system stability according to the load node capacity considering uncertainty factors in the system. The proposed approach can be applied to large-scale power systems for voltage stability assessment in real-time.

  9. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Idaho National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christopher P. Ischay; Ernest L. Fossum; Polly C. Buotte; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Alexander Peterson

    2014-10-01

    The University of Idaho (UI) was asked to participate in the development of a climate change vulnerability assessment for Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This report describes the outcome of that assessment. The climate change happening now, due in large part to human activities, is expected to continue in the future. UI and INL used a common framework for assessing vulnerability that considers exposure (future climate change), sensitivity (system or component responses to climate), impact (exposure combined with sensitivity), and adaptive capacity (capability of INL to modify operations to minimize climate change impacts) to assess vulnerability. Analyses of climate change (exposure) revealed that warming that is ongoing at INL will continue in the coming decades, with increased warming in later decades and under scenarios of greater greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of precipitation are more uncertain, with multi model means exhibiting somewhat wetter conditions and more wet days per year. Additional impacts relevant to INL include estimates of more burned area and increased evaporation and transpiration, leading to reduced soil moisture and plant growth.

  10. Construction of climate change scenarios from transient climate change experiments for the IPCC impacts assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viner, D.; Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.; Jones, P.D.

    1994-01-01

    This paper outlines the different methods which may be used for the construction of regional climate change scenarios. The main focus of the paper is the construction of global climate change scenarios from climate change experiments carried out using General Circulation Models (GCMS) An introduction to some GCM climate change experiments highlights the difference between model types and experiments (e.g., equilibrium or transient). The latest generation of climate change experiments has been performed using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMS. These allow transient simulations of climate change to be performed with respect to a given greenhouse gas forcing scenario. There are, however, a number of problems with these simulations which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios for use in climate change impacts assessment. The characteristics of the transient climate change experiments which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios are discussed. Three examples of these problems are: different climate change experiments use different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios; the 'cold-start' problem makes it difficult to link future projections of climate change to a given calendar year; a drift of the climate is noticeable in the control simulations. In order to construct climate change scenarios for impacts assessment a method has therefore to be employed which addresses these problems. At present the climate modeling and climate change impacts communities are somewhat polarized in their approach to spatial scales. Current GCMs model the climate at resolutions larger than 2.5 x 3.75 degree, while the majority of impacts assessment studies are undertaken at scales below 50km (or 0.5 degree). This paper concludes by addressing the problems in bringing together these two different modeling perspectives by presenting a number of regional climate change scenarios. 35 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs

  11. Assessment of Coastal Governance for Climate Change Adaptation in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ojwang, Lenice; Rosendo, Sergio; Celliers, Louis; Obura, David; Muiti, Anastasia; Kamula, James; Mwangi, Maina

    2017-11-01

    The coastline of Kenya already experiences effects of climate change, adding to existing pressures such as urbanization. Integrated coastal management (ICM) is increasingly recognized as a key policy response to deal with the multiple challenges facing coastal zones, including climate change. It can create an enabling governance environment for effective local action on climate change by facilitating a structured approach to dealing with coastal issues. It encompasses the actions of a wide range of actors, including local governments close to people and their activities affected by climate change. Functioning ICM also offers opportunities for reducing risks and building resilience. This article applied a modified capitals approach framework (CAF), consisting of five "capitals," to assess the status of county government capacity to respond to climate change within the context of coastal governance in three county governments in Kenya. The baseline was defined in terms of governance relating to the implementation of the interrelated policy systems of ICM and coastal climate change adaptation (CCA). The CAF framework provided a systematic approach to building a governance baseline against which to assess the progress of county governments in responding to climate change. It identified gaps in human capacity, financial resource allocation to adaptation and access to climate change information. Furthermore, it showed that having well-developed institutions, including regulatory frameworks at the national level can facilitate but does not automatically enable adaptation at the county level.

  12. A maturity model to assess organisational readiness for change

    OpenAIRE

    Zephir, Olivier; Minel, Stéphanie; Chapotot, Emilie

    2011-01-01

    International audience; The presented model which is developed in a European project allows project management teams to assess the organisational maturity to integrate new practices under structural or technological change. Maturity for change is defined here as workforce capability to operate effectively in transformed processes. This methodology is addressed to tackle organisational readiness to fulfil business objectives through technological and structural improvements. The tool integrate...

  13. Measures for assessing practice change in medical practitioners

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Green Sally

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There are increasing numbers of randomised trials and systematic reviews examining the efficacy of interventions designed to bring about a change in clinical practice. The findings of this research are being used to guide strategies to increase the uptake of evidence into clinical practice. Knowledge of the outcomes measured by these trials is vital not only for the interpretation and application of the work done to date, but also to inform future research in this expanding area of endeavour and to assist in collation of results in systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Methods The objective of this review was to identify methods used to measure change in the clinical practices of health professionals following an intervention aimed at increasing the uptake of evidence into practice. All published trials included in a recent, comprehensive Health Technology Assessment of interventions to implement clinical practice guidelines and change clinical practice (n = 228 formed the sample for this study. Using a standardised data extraction form, one reviewer (SH, extracted the relevant information from the methods and/or results sections of the trials. Results Measures of a change of health practitioner behaviour were the most common, with 88.8% of trials using these as outcome measures. Measures that assessed change at a patient level, either actual measures of change or surrogate measures of change, were used in 28.8% and 36.7% of studies (respectively. Health practitioners' knowledge and attitudes were assessed in 22.8% of the studies and changes at an organisational level were assessed in 17.6%. Conclusion Most trials of interventions aimed at changing clinical practice measured the effect of the intervention at the level of the practitioner, i.e. did the practitioner change what they do, or has their knowledge of and/or attitude toward that practice changed? Less than one-third of the trials measured, whether or not any change

  14. Climate Change and Environmental assessments: Issues in an African Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dalfelt, Arne; Naess, Lars Otto

    1997-12-31

    The present report discusses the potential for integrating climate change issues into environmental assessments of development actions, with an emphasis on sub-Sahara Africa. The study is motivated by the fact that future climate change could have significant adverse impacts on the natural and socio-economic environment in Africa. Yet, to date global change issues, including climate change, have been largely overlooked in the process of improving environmental assessment procedures and methodologies. It is argued that although emissions of greenhouse gases in Africa are negligible today, it is highly relevant to include this aspect in the planning of long-term development strategies. The report discusses potential areas of conflicts and synergies between climate change and development goals. The general conclusion is that environmental assessments could be an appropriate tool for addressing climate change issues, while there are still several obstacles to its practical implementation. Four priority areas are suggested for further work: (1) Environmental accounting, (2) harmonization and standard-setting, (3) implementation, and (4) risk management. 82 refs., 5 figs., 11 tabs.

  15. The impact of SciDAC on US climate change research and the IPCC AR4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wehner, Michael

    2005-01-01

    SciDAC has invested heavily in climate change research. We offer a candid opinion as to the impact of the DOE laboratories' SciDAC projects on the upcoming Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

  16. Contribution of the working group 2 to the fourth evaluation report of the inter government expert group on the climatic change. Evaluation 2007 of the climatic changes: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability; Contribution du Groupe de travail 2 au quatrieme rapport d'evaluation du Groupe d'expert intergouvernemental sur l'evolution du climat. Bilan 2007 des changements climatiques: impacts, adaptation et vulnerabilite

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    This document exposes the results of the fourth evaluation report of the working group II of the inter government experts group on the climatic change. This evaluation presents the today scientific understanding of the climatic change impacts on the humans and their adaptation ability and vulnerability. It is based on the GIEC evaluations and new knowledge added since the third evaluation report. (A.L.B.)

  17. Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

  18. Assessing the likely impacts of climate change on infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holper, Paul; Nolan, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Full text: In 2005, the Victorian Government contracted CSIRO, Maunsell Australia and Phillips Fox to undertake an overview assessment of the likely impacts of climate change on the State's infrastructure, establish the categories of infrastructure most at risk and outline opportunities for adaptation responses. The Government released the assessment in May 2007. Climate change poses a significant risk to infrastructure and its owners, managers and long-term operators. The work was undertaken on the basis that it should not be assumed that future climate and its impacts will simply be an extension of what has been experienced in the past. Major infrastructure items have long useful life spans (20-100 years). A bridge built today is expected to still be in use in tens, if not hundreds, of years. This means that recognition of likely climate change impacts and appropriate adaptation measures should occur now. Recognition of the risks associated with climate change is a valuable first step towards better planning of new infrastructure investments and reducing potential damage to existing infrastructure.lnfrastructure types examined were water, power, telecommunications, transport and buildings. The climate change projections used in this report are based on CSIRO climate modelling, supported by findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climatic and other variables considered were temperature, rainfall, available moisture, humidity, winds, fire-weather frequency and intensity, solar radiation levels and sea-level rise. For each climate change variable identified, we described a worst-case impact for low and high climate change projections for the years 2030 and 2070. The assessment was made on the basis of 'business as usual' with no adaptation responses to climate change. The report also details the current governance structures associated with each infrastructure type. Overall, the report assessed the likely impact of climate change on

  19. The assessment and treatment of wound pain at dressing change.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Bell, Cassandra

    2010-01-01

    Pain is a common reason for patients with acute or chronic wounds seeking hospital admission, but it appears to be under-treated by health professionals. A quantitative descriptive study was conducted to investigate nurses\\' knowledge with regard to dressing change and wound pain. Data were collected from registered nurses (n=94). Analysis indicated a low level of knowledge with regard to pain assessment and strategies to overcome pain at dressing change, but a good knowledge of factors that contribute to pain at dressing change.

  20. Climate change impacts in Iran: assessing our current knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahimi, Jaber; Malekian, Arash; Khalili, Ali

    2018-02-01

    During recent years, various studies have focused on investigating the direct and indirect impacts of climate changes in Iran while the noteworthy fact is the achievement gained by these researches. Furthermore, what should be taken into consideration is whether these studies have been able to provide appropriate opportunities for improving further studies in this particular field or not. To address these questions, this study systematically reviewed and summarized the current available literature (n = 150) regarding the impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation in Iran to assess our current state of knowledge. The results revealed that while all studies discuss the probable changes in temperature and precipitation over the next decades, serious contradictions could be seen in their results; also, the general pattern of changes was different in most of the cases. This matter may have a significant effect on public beliefs in climate change, which can be a serious warning for the activists in this realm.

  1. Changes in chemical composition and bioassay assessment of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Changes in chemical composition and bioassay assessment of nutritional potentials of almond fruit waste as an alternative feedstuff for livestock. ... AFW using day-old cockerels and considering performance parameters showed that treated AFW improved feed intake, body weight gain and feed conversion ratio even better ...

  2. Assessing climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessing climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for smallholder agricultural systems in Uganda. ... from encroaching on swamps, which is one of the reported adaptation strategies to climate related stresses. Improving productivity of important crops (bananas for southwest, and sweet potatoes and bananas

  3. Integrated assessment of climate change with reductions of methane emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amstel, van A.R.

    2005-01-01

    We have been living in the anthropocene era since about 1950, and evidence of human influence on the natural ecosystems and climate is mounting. Reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are needed to reduce the effects of climate change in the future. In an integrated assessment with the IMAGE model

  4. Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Kørnøv, Lone; Driscoll, Patrick Arthur

    2013-01-01

    This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies...

  5. 78 FR 14912 - International Aviation Safety Assessment (IASA) Program Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-08

    ... Aviation Safety Assessment (IASA) Program Change AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION..., into the U.S., or codeshare with a U.S. air carrier, complies with international aviation safety... subject to that country's aviation safety oversight can serve the United States using its own aircraft or...

  6. Changing the culture of assessment: the dominance of the summative assessment paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Christopher J; Könings, Karen D; Schuwirth, Lambert W T; Wass, Valerie; van der Vleuten, Cees P M

    2017-04-28

    Despite growing evidence of the benefits of including assessment for learning strategies within programmes of assessment, practical implementation of these approaches is often problematical. Organisational culture change is often hindered by personal and collective beliefs which encourage adherence to the existing organisational paradigm. We aimed to explore how these beliefs influenced proposals to redesign a summative assessment culture in order to improve students' use of assessment-related feedback. Using the principles of participatory design, a mixed group comprising medical students, clinical teachers and senior faculty members was challenged to develop radical solutions to improve the use of post-assessment feedback. Follow-up interviews were conducted with individual members of the group to explore their personal beliefs about the proposed redesign. Data were analysed using a socio-cultural lens. Proposed changes were dominated by a shared belief in the primacy of the summative assessment paradigm, which prevented radical redesign solutions from being accepted by group members. Participants' prior assessment experiences strongly influenced proposals for change. As participants had largely only experienced a summative assessment culture, they found it difficult to conceptualise radical change in the assessment culture. Although all group members participated, students were less successful at persuading the group to adopt their ideas. Faculty members and clinical teachers often used indirect techniques to close down discussions. The strength of individual beliefs became more apparent in the follow-up interviews. Naïve epistemologies and prior personal experiences were influential in the assessment redesign but were usually not expressed explicitly in a group setting, perhaps because of cultural conventions of politeness. In order to successfully implement a change in assessment culture, firmly-held intuitive beliefs about summative assessment will need to

  7. A vulnerability and risk assessment of SEPTA's regional rail : a transit climate change adaptation assessment pilot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    This final report for the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) Transit Climate Change Adaptation Assessment Pilot describes the actions : taken, information gathered, analyses performed, and lessons learned throughout the pilot project. This report d...

  8. Practice and progress in integrated assessments of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toth, F.L.

    1995-01-01

    This paper is intended to provide an overview of the state of the art integrated socioeconomic-biophysical assessments of climate change as presented at the IIASA workshop in October 1993. The paper seeks to tally the major improvements facilitated by integrated assessments in understanding the global warming problem and the crucial unresolved problems they currently face. The basic conclusion is that, as a result of a healthy diversity in practice, integrated assessments show significant progress in structuring the economic issues of climate change and providing the first broad insights into policy options. But, as some of the simple and traditional cases seem to be solved, more complex and difficult contingencies come to the fore. This suggests a long way to go to develop skills that will be required to address the numerous open issues. (author)

  9. Assessing and managing freshwater ecosystems vulnerable to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Birge, Hannah E.; Drakare, Stina; McKie, Brendan G.; Johnson, Richard K.

    2014-01-01

    Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.

  10. Commitment to Change and Challenges to Implementing Changes After Workplace-Based Assessment Rater Training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kogan, Jennifer R; Conforti, Lisa N; Yamazaki, Kenji; Iobst, William; Holmboe, Eric S

    2017-03-01

    Faculty development for clinical faculty who assess trainees is necessary to improve assessment quality and impor tant for competency-based education. Little is known about what faculty plan to do differently after training. This study explored the changes faculty intended to make after workplace-based assessment rater training, their ability to implement change, predictors of change, and barriers encountered. In 2012, 45 outpatient internal medicine faculty preceptors (who supervised residents) from 26 institutions participated in rater training. They completed a commitment to change form listing up to five commitments and ranked (on a 1-5 scale) their motivation for and anticipated difficulty implementing each change. Three months later, participants were interviewed about their ability to implement change and barriers encountered. The authors used logistic regression to examine predictors of change. Of 191 total commitments, the most common commitments focused on what faculty would change about their own teaching (57%) and increasing direct observation (31%). Of the 183 commitments for which follow-up data were available, 39% were fully implemented, 40% were partially implemented, and 20% were not implemented. Lack of time/competing priorities was the most commonly cited barrier. Higher initial motivation (odds ratio [OR] 2.02; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14, 3.57) predicted change. As anticipated difficulty increased, implementation became less likely (OR 0.67; 95% CI 0.49, 0.93). While higher baseline motivation predicted change, multiple system-level barriers undermined ability to implement change. Rater-training faculty development programs should address how faculty motivation and organizational barriers interact and influence ability to change.

  11. Changing the culture of assessment: the dominance of the summative assessment paradigm

    OpenAIRE

    Harrison, Christopher J.; Konings, Karen D.; Schuwirth, Lambert W. T.; Wass, Valerie; van der Vleuten, Cees P. M.

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Despite growing evidence of the benefits of including assessment for learning strategies within programmes of assessment, practical implementation of these approaches is often problematical. Organisational culture change is often hindered by personal and collective beliefs which encourage adherence to the existing organisational paradigm. We aimed to explore how these beliefs influenced proposals to redesign a summative assessment culture in order to improve students' use of asses...

  12. Assessing and managing stressors in a changing marine environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Peter M

    2017-11-30

    We are facing a dynamic future in the face of multiple stressors acting individually and in combination: climate change; habitat change/loss; overfishing; invasive species; harmful algal blooms/eutrophication; and, chemical contaminants. Historic assessment and management approaches will be inadequate for addressing risks from climate change and other stressors. Wicked problems (non-linear, complex, competing risks and benefits, not easily solvable), will become increasingly common. We are facing irreversible changes to our planetary living conditions. Agreed protection goals and considering both the negatives (risks) and the positives (benefits) of all any and all actions are required, as is judicious and appropriate use of the Precautionary Principle. Researchers and managers need to focus on: determining tipping points (alternative stable points); maintaining ecosystem services; and, managing competing ecosystem services. Marine (and other) scientists are urged to focus their research on wicked problems to allow for informed decision-making on a planetary basis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Assessment of the Health Impacts of Climate Change in Kiribati

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIver, Lachlan; Woodward, Alistair; Davies, Seren; Tibwe, Tebikau; Iddings, Steven

    2014-01-01

    Kiribati—a low-lying, resource-poor Pacific atoll nation—is one of the most vulnerable countries in the World to the impacts of climate change, including the likely detrimental effects on human health. We describe the preparation of a climate change and health adaptation plan for Kiribati carried out by the World Health Organization and the Kiribati Ministry of Health and Medical Services, including an assessment of risks to health, sources of vulnerability and suggestions for highest priority adaptation responses. This paper identifies advantages and disadvantages in the process that was followed, lays out a future direction of climate change and health adaptation work in Kiribati, and proposes lessons that may be applicable to other small, developing island nations as they prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change on health. PMID:24830452

  14. Comparative effectiveness of fourth-line anti-hypertensive agents in resistant hypertension: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinnott, Sarah-Jo; Tomlinson, Laurie A; Root, Adrian A; Mathur, Rohini; Mansfield, Kathryn E; Smeeth, Liam; Douglas, Ian J

    2017-02-01

    Aim We assessed the effectiveness of fourth-line mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists in comparison with other fourth-line anti-hypertensive agents in resistant hypertension. Methods and results We systematically searched Medline, EMBASE and the Cochrane library from database inception until January 2016. We included randomised and non-randomised studies that compared mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists with other fourth-line anti-hypertensive agents in patients with resistant hypertension. The outcome was change in systolic blood pressure, measured in the office, at home or by ambulatory blood pressure monitoring. Secondary outcomes were changes in serum potassium and occurrence of hyperkalaemia. We used random effects models and assessed statistical heterogeneity using the I 2 test and corresponding 95% confidence intervals. From 2,506 records, 5 studies met our inclusion criteria with 755 included patients. Two studies were randomised and three were non-randomised. Comparative fourth-line agents included bisoprolol, doxazosin, furosemide and additional blockade of the renin angiotensin-aldosterone system. Using data from randomised studies, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists reduced blood pressure by 7.4 mmHg (95%CI 3.2 - 11.6) more than the active comparator. When limited to non-randomised studies, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists reduced blood pressure by 11.9 mmHg (95% CI 9.3 - 14.4) more than the active comparator. Conclusion On the basis of this meta-analysis, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists reduce blood pressure more effectively than other fourth-line agents in resistant hypertension. Effectiveness stratified by ethnicity and comorbidities, in addition to information on clinical outcomes such as myocardial infarction and stroke, now needs to be determined.

  15. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozano, Olga M; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Arca, Bachisio; Alcasena, Fermin J; Monteiro, Antonio T; Finney, Mark A; Del Giudice, Liliana; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Spano, Donatella

    2017-10-01

    We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041-2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sale, Michael J. [M.J. Sale and Associates, Hanson, MA (United States); Shih-Chieh, Kao [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Ashfaq, Moetasim [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Kaiser, Dale P. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Martinez, Rocio [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Webb, Cindy [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Wei, Yaxing [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2012-10-01

    As directed by Congress in Section 9505 of the SECURE Water Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-11), the US Department of Energy (DOE), in consultation with the federal Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs) and other federal agencies, including federal dam owners, has prepared a comprehensive assessment examining the effects of climate change on water available for hydropower at federal facilities and on the marketing of power from these federal facilities. This Oak Ridge National Laboratory report, referred to as the “9505 Assessment,” describes the technical basis for the report to Congress that was called for in the SECURE Water Act.

  17. Methodology to assess coastal infrastructure resilience to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roca Marta

    2016-01-01

    In order to improve the resilience of the line, several options have been considered to evaluate and reduce climate change impacts to the railway. This paper describes the methodological approach developed to evaluate the risks of flooding for a range of scenarios in the estuary and open coast reaches of the line. Components to derive the present day and future climate change coastal conditions including some possible adaptation measures are also presented together with the results of the hindcasting analysis to assess the performance of the modelling system. An overview of the modelling results obtained to support the development of a long-term Resilience Strategy for asset management is also discussed.

  18. Fourth international radiopharmaceutical dosimetry symposium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schlafke-Stelson, A.T.; Watson, E.E.

    1986-04-01

    The focus of the Fourth International Radiopharmaceutical Dosimetry Symposium was to explore the impact of current developments in nuclear medicine on absorbed dose calculations. This book contains the proceedings of the meeting including the edited discussion that followed the presentations. Topics that were addressed included the dosimetry associated with radiolabeled monoclonal antibodies and blood elements, ultrashort-lived radionuclides, and positron emitters. Some specific areas of discussion were variations in absorbed dose as a result of alterations in the kinetics, the influence of radioactive contaminants on dose, dose in children and in the fetus, available instrumentation and techniques for collecting the kinetic data needed for dose calculation, dosimetry requirements for the review and approval of new radiopharmaceuticals, and a comparison of the effect on the thyroid of internal versus external irradiation. New models for the urinary blader, skeleton including the active marrow, and the blood were presented. Several papers dealt with the validity of traditional ''average-organ'' dose estimates to express the dose from particulate radiation that has a short range in tissue. These problems are particularly important in the use of monoclonal antibodies and agents used to measure intracellular functions. These proceedings have been published to provide a resource volume for anyone interested in the calculation of absorbed radiation dose

  19. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua

    2015-01-01

    The combination of a warming Earth and an increasing population will likely strain the world's food systems in the coming decades. Experts involved with the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) focus on quantifying the changes through time. AgMIP, a program begun in 2010, involves about 800 climate scientists, economists, nutritionists, information technology specialists, and crop and livestock experts. In mid-September 2015, the Aspen Global Change Institute convened an AgMIP workshop to draft plans and protocols for assessing global- and regional-scale modeling of crops, livestock, economics, and nutrition across major agricultural regions worldwide. The goal of this Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments (CGRA) project is to characterize climate effects on large- and small-scale farming systems.

  20. Assessing local vulnerability to climate change in Ecuador.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Mario Andres; Bucaram, Santiago J; Renteria, Willington

    2015-01-01

    Vulnerability assessments have become necessary to increase the understanding of climate-sensitive systems and inform resource allocation in developing countries. Challenges arise when poor economic and social development combines with heterogeneous climatic conditions. Thus, finding and harmonizing good-quality data at local scale may be a significant hurdle for vulnerability research. In this paper we assess vulnerability to climate change at a local level in Ecuador. We take Ecuador as a case study as socioeconomic data are readily available. To incorporate the spatial and temporal pattern of the climatic variables we use reanalysis datasets and empirical orthogonal functions. Our assessment strategy relies on the statistical behavior of climatic and socioeconomic indicators for the weighting and aggregation mechanism into a composite vulnerability indicator. Rather than assuming equal contribution to the formation of the composite indicator, we assume that the weights of the indicators vary inversely as the variance over the cantons (administrative division of Ecuador). This approach captures the multi-dimensionality of vulnerability in a comprehensive form. We find that the least vulnerable cantons concentrate around Ecuador's largest cities (e.g. Quito and Guayaquil); however, approximately 20 % of the national population lives in other cantons that are categorized as highly and very highly vulnerable to climate change. Results also show that the main determinants of high vulnerability are the lack of land tenure in agricultural areas and the nonexistence of government-funded programs directed to environmental and climate change management.

  1. Assessing the Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khresat, Sa'eb; Shraidaeh, Fadi; Maddat, Amer

    2015-04-01

    Climate change represents one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats facing Jordan. In particular, the combined effects of climate change and water scarcity threaten to affect food and water resources that are critical for livelihoods in Jordan. This is especially true for those communities who live in the dryland area in the country and who rely wholly on rain-fed agriculture. The exact nature and extent of the impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation distribution pattern remain uncertain and it is the poor and vulnerable who will be the most susceptible to climate change adverse effects. A vulnerability assessment of rain fed agriculture to climate change and variability in semi-arid parts of Jordan was conducted in 2014. The purpose of this study is to assess the vulnerability and resilience of the most vulnerable groups where rainfed and irrigated agriculture is practiced. Also, the study focused on quantifying the impacts on agricultural productivity in response to climate change. This will help policymakers and researchers better understand and anticipate the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture and on vulnerable communities in Jordan. Also, it will provide them with tools to identify and implement appropriate adaptation strategies. The data used includes; Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Those pathways were used for climate modeling. A decision support system (DSSAT) for agricultural production was used to assess the impact of climate changes on agricultural production. This approach was used for the Identification of climate change risk and their impacts on Agriculture. Outputs from models are used to assess the vulnerability of farmers and crops to climate and socio-economic change by estimating their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to external factors as a means of identifying what causes the differences in their

  2. The Contribution of Executive Functions to Narrative Writing in Fourth Grade Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drijbooms, Elise; Groen, Margriet A.; Verhoeven, Ludo

    2015-01-01

    The present study investigated the contribution of executive functions to narrative writing in fourth grade children, and evaluated to what extent executive functions contribute differentially to different levels of narrative composition. The written skills of 102 Dutch children in fourth grade were assessed using a narrative picture-elicitation…

  3. Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen, E-mail: sannevl@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University-Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers Vænge 15, 2450 København SV (Denmark); Kørnøv, Lone, E-mail: lonek@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University, Skibbrogade 5, 1. Sal, 9000 Aalborg (Denmark); Driscoll, Patrick, E-mail: patrick@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University-Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers Vænge 15, 2450 København SV (Denmark)

    2013-11-15

    This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies ‘reduction’ and ‘resilience’, ‘denying’, ‘ignoring’ and ‘postponing’. Second, 151 Danish SEAs are analysed with a focus on the extent to which climate change uncertainties are acknowledged and presented, and the empirical findings are discussed in relation to the model. The findings indicate that despite incentives to do so, climate change uncertainties were systematically avoided or downplayed in all but 5 of the 151 SEAs that were reviewed. Finally, two possible explanatory mechanisms are proposed to explain this: conflict avoidance and a need to quantify uncertainty.

  4. Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Kørnøv, Lone; Driscoll, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies ‘reduction’ and ‘resilience’, ‘denying’, ‘ignoring’ and ‘postponing’. Second, 151 Danish SEAs are analysed with a focus on the extent to which climate change uncertainties are acknowledged and presented, and the empirical findings are discussed in relation to the model. The findings indicate that despite incentives to do so, climate change uncertainties were systematically avoided or downplayed in all but 5 of the 151 SEAs that were reviewed. Finally, two possible explanatory mechanisms are proposed to explain this: conflict avoidance and a need to quantify uncertainty

  5. Transtentorial herniation of the fourth ventricle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosenfeld, D.L.; Lis, E.; DeMarco, K.

    1995-01-01

    Transtentorial herniation (TTH) of the fourth ventricle is the result of a progressive enlargement of an isolated fourth ventricle which herniates through the tentorial incisure into the middle cranial fossa. The characteristic CT-MR and neurosonographic findings are described. (orig.)

  6. Fourth Lepton Family is Natural in Technicolor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    T. Frandsen, Mads; Masina, Isabella; Sannino, Francesco

    2010-01-01

    Imagine to discover a new fourth family of leptons at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) but no signs of an associated fourth family of quarks. What would that imply? An intriguing possibility is that the new fermions needed to compensate for the new leptons gauge anomalies simultaneously address...

  7. Systems Prototyping with Fourth Generation Tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sholtys, Phyllis

    1983-01-01

    The development of information systems using an engineering approach that uses both traditional programing techniques and fourth generation software tools is described. Fourth generation applications tools are used to quickly develop a prototype system that is revised as the user clarifies requirements. (MLW)

  8. The fourth family of quarks and leptons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cline, D.B.; Soni, A.

    1987-01-01

    This book presents the proceedings of The Fourth Family of Quarks and Leptons. Topics covered include: Missing Transverse Energy Events and a Search for Additional Neutrino Families and a Fourth-Generation Lepton; Cosmological Limit on the Number of Families; and Charmed Baryon Decay

  9. Climate change mitigation and adaptation in strategic environmental assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wende, Wolfgang; Bond, Alan; Bobylev, Nikolai; Stratmann, Lars

    2012-01-01

    Countries are implementing CO 2 emission reduction targets in order to meet a globally agreed global warming limit of +2 °C. However, it was hypothesised that these national reduction targets are not translated to regional or state level planning, and are not considered through Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) in order to meet emission reduction obligations falling on the transport, energy, housing, agriculture, and forestry sectors. SEAs of land use plans in the German state of Saxony, and the English region of the East of England were examined for their consideration of climate change impacts based on a set of criteria drawn from the literature. It was found that SEAs in both cases failed to consider climate change impacts at scales larger than the boundary of the spatial plan, and that CO 2 reduction targets were not considered. This suggests a need for more clarity in the legal obligations for climate change consideration within the text of the SEA Directive, a requirement for monitoring of carbon emissions, a need for methodological guidance to devolve global climate change targets down to regional and local levels, and a need for guidance on properly implementing climate change protection in SEA. - Highlights: ► Strategic Environmental Assessments (SEA) of 12 land use plans from Germany and England have been examined. ► SEA failed to consider climate change impacts at scales larger than the boundary of the land use plans. ► SEA should be an important instrument for climate protection. ► Concrete steps for climate protection mainstreaming into SEA at the European Union and national levels have been suggested.

  10. Mesh climate change data of Japan ver. 2 for climate change impact assessments under IPCC SRES A1B and A2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okada, M.; Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Yokozawa, M.

    2009-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in 2007 and stated that recent climate change and variation are induced by increases in the atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHG) concentration due to anthropogenic activities. The report includes the results of impact assessments on a wide range of sectors. These assessments have been conducted based on future climate projections, which refer to aspects of the future climate evaluated by Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs). The projection data used in the AR4 are archived under the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) promoted by the U.S. Department of Energy. We interpolated the projection data around Japan and constructed a dataset entitled the 'Mesh climate change data of Japan Ver. 2' for the climate change impact study. Nine projections performed by seven models under the A1B and A2 of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) were implemented for the dataset. They consist of mesh data with a size of 7.5 min in longitude and 5.0 min in latitude, i.e. approximately 10 X 10 km (45 sec in longitude and 30 sec in latitude, approximately 1 x 1 km, for one high-resolution model). The dataset includes five climatic elements, i.e. the daily mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures, daily total precipitation, and daily accumulated shortwave radiation for three periods, 1981-2000, 2046-2065, and 2081-2100. This article describes the details concerning the construction and characteristics of the data

  11. Mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions from waste: conclusions and strategies from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bogner, J.P.; Pipatti, R.; Hashimoto, S.

    2008-01-01

    -term - at the present time, there are > 130 Mt waste year- 1 incinerated at more than 600 plants. Current uncertainties with respect to emissions and mitigation potentials could be reduced by more consistent national definitions, coordinated international data collection, standardized data analysis, field validation...

  12. Response of the North Pacific Oscillation to global warming in the models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zheng; Gan, Bolan; Wu, Lixin

    2017-09-01

    Based on 22 of the climate models from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we investigate the ability of the models to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the wintertime North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), which is the second most important factor determining the wintertime sea level pressure field in simulations of the pre-industrial control climate, and evaluate the NPO response to the future most reasonable global warming scenario (the A1B scenario). We reveal that while most models simulate the geographic distribution and amplitude of the NPO pattern satisfactorily, only 13 models capture both features well. However, the temporal variability of the simulated NPO could not be significantly correlated with the observations. Further analysis indicates the weakened NPO intensity for a scenario of strong global warming is attributable to the reduced lower-tropospheric baroclinicity at mid-latitudes, which is anticipated to disrupt large-scale and low-frequency atmospheric variability, resulting in the diminished transfer of energy to the NPO, together with its northward shift.

  13. Temporal constraints on predation risk assessment in a changing world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chivers, Douglas P.; Ramasamy, Ryan A.; McCormick, Mark I.; Watson, Sue-Ann; Siebeck, Ulrike E.; Ferrari, Maud C.O.

    2014-01-01

    Habitat degradation takes various forms and likely represents the most significant threat to our global biodiversity. Recently, we have seen considerable attention paid to increasing global CO 2 emissions which lead to ocean acidification (OA). Other stressors, such as changing levels of ultraviolet radiation (UVR), also impact biodiversity but have received much less attention in the recent past. Here we examine fundamental questions about temporal aspects of risk assessment by coral reef damselfish and provide critical insights into how OA and UVR influence this assessment. Chemical cues released during a predator attack provide a rich source of information that other prey animals use to mediate their risk of predation and are the basis of the majority of trait-mediated indirect interactions in aquatic communities. However, we have surprisingly limited information about temporal aspects of risk assessment because we lack knowledge about how long chemical cues persist after they are released into the environment. Here, we showed that under ambient CO 2 conditions (∼ 385 μatm), alarm cues of ambon damselfish (Pomacentrus amboinensis) did not degrade within 30 min in the absence of ultraviolet radiation (UVR), but were degraded within 15 min when the CO 2 was increased to ∼ 905 μatm. In experiments that used filters to eliminate UVR, we found minimal degradation of alarm cues within 30 min, whereas under ambient UVR conditions, alarm cues were completely degraded within 15 min. Moreover, in the presence of both UVR and elevated CO 2 , alarm cues were broken down within 5 min. Our results highlight that alarm cues degrade surprisingly quickly under natural conditions and that anthropogenic changes have the potential to dramatically change rates of cue degradation in the wild. This has considerable implications for risk assessment and consequently the importance of trait-mediated indirect interactions in coral-reef communities. - Highlights: • We have limited

  14. Temporal constraints on predation risk assessment in a changing world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chivers, Douglas P., E-mail: doug.chivers@usask.ca [Department of Biology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5E2 (Canada); Ramasamy, Ryan A.; McCormick, Mark I.; Watson, Sue-Ann [ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville Qld4811 (Australia); School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University, Townsville Qld4811 (Australia); Siebeck, Ulrike E. [School of Biomedical Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane Qld4072 (Australia); Ferrari, Maud C.O. [Department of Biomedical Sciences, WCVM, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK S7W 5B4 (Canada)

    2014-12-01

    Habitat degradation takes various forms and likely represents the most significant threat to our global biodiversity. Recently, we have seen considerable attention paid to increasing global CO{sub 2} emissions which lead to ocean acidification (OA). Other stressors, such as changing levels of ultraviolet radiation (UVR), also impact biodiversity but have received much less attention in the recent past. Here we examine fundamental questions about temporal aspects of risk assessment by coral reef damselfish and provide critical insights into how OA and UVR influence this assessment. Chemical cues released during a predator attack provide a rich source of information that other prey animals use to mediate their risk of predation and are the basis of the majority of trait-mediated indirect interactions in aquatic communities. However, we have surprisingly limited information about temporal aspects of risk assessment because we lack knowledge about how long chemical cues persist after they are released into the environment. Here, we showed that under ambient CO{sub 2} conditions (∼ 385 μatm), alarm cues of ambon damselfish (Pomacentrus amboinensis) did not degrade within 30 min in the absence of ultraviolet radiation (UVR), but were degraded within 15 min when the CO{sub 2} was increased to ∼ 905 μatm. In experiments that used filters to eliminate UVR, we found minimal degradation of alarm cues within 30 min, whereas under ambient UVR conditions, alarm cues were completely degraded within 15 min. Moreover, in the presence of both UVR and elevated CO{sub 2}, alarm cues were broken down within 5 min. Our results highlight that alarm cues degrade surprisingly quickly under natural conditions and that anthropogenic changes have the potential to dramatically change rates of cue degradation in the wild. This has considerable implications for risk assessment and consequently the importance of trait-mediated indirect interactions in coral-reef communities. - Highlights:

  15. Climate Change Assessments for Lakes Region of Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayten Erol

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is one of the most important challenges for forestry. Forests are known to be most efficient natural tools to ensure availability and quality of water in many regions. Besides, planning of forest resources towards water quality and quantity is essential in countries that are expected to face with more frequent drought periods in the next decades due to climate change. Watershed management concept has been supposed as the primary tool to plan natural resources in a more efficient and sustainable way by both academicians and practitioners to mitigate and adapt climate change. Forest cover among other land use types provides the best regulating mechanism to mitigate erosion, sedimentation, desertification, and pollution. In addition, climate change can potentially affect forest stand dynamics by influencing the availability of water resources. Therefore, the amount of forest cover in a watershed is an indicator of climate change mitigation and adaptation. Climate change is a concern and risk for the sustainability of water resources in Lakes Region of Turkey. The objective of this study is to make a comprehensive assessment in lake watersheds of the Lakes region considering the forest cover. For this purpose, the study gives a general view of trends in climatic parameters using Mann Kendall trend test. The results showed that Mann Kendall trend test for temperature and precipitation data is not enough to evaluate the magnitude of potential changes of climate in terms of forest cover. Understanding impacts of changes in temperature and precipitation on forest cover, runoff data should be evaluated with temperature and precipitation for watersheds of forest areas in Lakes Region.

  16. A comparative assessment of endogenous water institutional change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pande, Saket; Ersten, Maurits

    2013-04-01

    This paper builds the theory of endogenous institutional change, first proposed by Greif and Laitin (2004), for water scarce regions in context of water institutions. The current emphasis on environmental change, including hydrological change, largely ignores the adaptation of human societies to change. Humans have mostly been considered as boundary conditions or parameters of the dynamics of hydrological change and are not considered as conduits of feedbacks. Nonetheless, the dynamical representation of hydrological change with feedbacks between various components of a system is assuring since it is reminiscent of processual ecological anthropology(Orlove, 1980), except that individual decision making is absent. This paper proposes to consider selected dryland basins of the world, to conceptualize proxies of water relevant socio-economic organisation, such as spatial scales of upstream-downstream cooperation in water use, synthesized over time and then proposes a comparative assessment to test regularities predicted by an extension of river game theory (Ambec and Ehlers, 2008; van der Brink et al, 2012) to endogenous institutional change. References: Orlove, B. S. (1980). Ecological Anthropology. Annual Review of Anthropology, Vol. 9 (1980), pp. 235-273. Greif. A. and D. D. Laitin (2004). A Theory of Endogenous Institutional Change. American Political Science Review, Vol. 98, No. 4 November 2004. Ambec, S. and L. Ehlers (2008). Sharing a river amongst satiable agents. Games and Economic Behavior, 64, 35-50. Van der Brink, G. van der Laan and N. Moes (2012). Fair agreements for sharing international rivers with multiple springs and externalities. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 63, 388-403.

  17. Hydrological change: Towards a consistent approach to assess changes on both floods and droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quesada-Montano, Beatriz; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Rangecroft, Sally; Van Loon, Anne F.

    2018-01-01

    Several studies have found that the frequency, magnitude and spatio-temporal distribution of droughts and floods have significantly increased in many regions of the world. Yet, most of the methods used in detecting trends in hydrological extremes 1) focus on either floods or droughts, and/or 2) base their assessment on characteristics that, even though useful for trend identification, cannot be directly used in decision making, e.g. integrated water resources management and disaster risk reduction. In this paper, we first discuss the need for a consistent approach to assess changes on both floods and droughts, and then propose a method based on the theory of runs and threshold levels. Flood and drought changes were assessed in terms of frequency, length and surplus/deficit volumes. This paper also presents an example application using streamflow data from two hydrometric stations along the Po River basin (Italy), Piacenza and Pontelagoscuro, and then discuss opportunities and challenges of the proposed method.

  18. Alarmist misrepresentations of the findings of the latest scientific assessment report of the intergovernmental Panel on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linden, Henry R.

    2007-08-15

    The alarmist propaganda following release of the Policymakers Summary of the Fourth Assessment Report of Working Group 1 of the IPCC this year is unjustified. We had this information since 2001, when the Third Assessment Report was released. However, this does not mean that we should ignore the potential consequences of increasing the impact of the current interglacial period. (author)

  19. Self-assessment and readiness for change in dysphonic patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, Leonardo Wanderley; Vilela, Eveline Gonçalves

    2016-07-04

    To examine whether there is an association between vocal self-assessment and readiness for change in dysphonic patients. 151 patients with vocal complaints and diagnosis of dysphonia, between 18 and 65 years of age, 47 men and 104 women treated at the voice clinic of a public institution participated in the study. Four self-assessment instruments were applied, including the Voice-Related Quality of Life (V-RQOL), the Voice Handicap Index (VHI) and the Voice Symptom Scale (VoiSS), and the use of URICA-VOICE instrument to verify the patients stage of readiness for change. All instruments were applied immediately before the start of vocal therapy. The variables were correlated and compared using inferential statistics. Most patients were in the contemplation stage (76.2%, n = 115), 22 (14.6%) were in the pre-contemplation stage and 14 (9.3%) in the action stage. There was a negative correlation between the score in URICA-VOICE and the socio-emotional domain and total score V-RQOL. There was a positive correlation between the score URICA-VOICE and full social, emotional and functional VHI, as well as between the score URICA-VOICE and full fields, limitation and emotional VoiSS. Only the social-emotional domain V-RQOL and emotional in VoiSS values showed statistically significant differences between the motivational stages. There is association between vocal self-assessment and readiness for change in dysphonic patients. Patients with major impact on quality of life in voice in V-RQOL and higher frequency of vocal symptoms mentioned in the VoiSS show greater readiness for change.

  20. Assessment of weather indicators for possible climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maqssood, H.; Ahmed, S.I.

    2014-01-01

    From 20 century onwards, a great concern has been expressed regarding global climate change. This study attempts to perform detailed analysis of temperature and precipitation for Karachi city of Pakistan, to assess the possible climate change, using two data sets (51-year data: 1961-2012 and 31-year data: 1981-2012) for different parameters. Trends were generated using linear regression (LR) and Mann-Kendall (MK), which depicted that daily and annual temperatures were increasing, with changes in minimum temperature being more significant than maximum temperature. Analyses also showed increase in extreme temperature at night and during winter, showing that urbanization was a major factor, as the heat from buildings trapped in between dissipates at nights. The daily and monthly precipitation levels increased in contrast to annual precipitation trend, which is justified by the averaged monthly analysis showing that decreasing trends were much more significant than increasing trends. In addition, monthly precipitation showed an increase of 4.3 mm, using LR and MK test. It can be noticed that two extreme winter months (December and January) and two extreme hot months (May and October) received increased rainfall. However, statistical analyses showed overall annual decrease in rainfall. Furthermore, decadal analysis indicated sinusoidal behaviour of change in climate indicators; making climatic change evident but cyclic in nature. (author)

  1. Assessing Political Dynamics in Contemporary Malaysia: Implications for Democratic Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Surain Subramaniam

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This article examines political dynamics in Malaysia and assesses the prospects for change in the direction of greater political liberalization. It focuses on the 12th General Election of 2008 and its implications for opportunities and challenges for liberal democratic change in Malaysia. It discusses the role of the internet-based new media in shaping an emerging public sphere, and some factors affecting the changing role of non-Malay voters in the political process. This article argues that democratization in Malaysia is already occurring, albeit at a gradual pace; it is being pushed by the new political forces of civil society actors, newly empowered opposition parties, and the internet-based media. The boundaries of this emerging democratic space is simultaneously being shaped and contested by the political competition between status-quo and reformist forces in this society. Some institutional changes have expanded the parameters of democratic space, although the entrenched dominant institutions of the ruling regime continue to wield sufficient amounts of institutional capacity to subvert any consolidation of these democratic changes for now.

  2. National assessment of shoreline change: Historical shoreline change in the Hawaiian Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Charles H.; Romine, Bradley M.; Genz, Ayesha S.; Barbee, Matthew M.; Dyer, Matthew; Anderson, Tiffany R.; Lim, S. Chyn; Vitousek, Sean; Bochicchio, Christopher; Richmond, Bruce M.

    2012-01-01

    Sandy beaches of the United States are some of the most popular tourist and recreational destinations. Coastal property constitutes some of the most valuable real estate in the country. Beaches are an ephemeral environment between water and land with unique and fragile natural ecosystems that have evolved in equilibrium with the ever-changing winds, waves, and water levels. Beachfront lands are the site of intense residential and commercial development even though they are highly vulnerable to several natural hazards, including marine inundation, flooding and drainage problems, effects of storms, sea-level rise, and coastal erosion. Because the U.S. population continues to shift toward the coast where valuable coastal property is vulnerable to erosion, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting a national assessment of coastal change. One aspect of this effort, the National Assessment of Shoreline Change, uses shoreline position as a proxy for coastal change because shoreline position is one of the most commonly monitored indicators of environmental change (for example, Fletcher, 1992; Dolan and others, 1991; Douglas and others, 1998; Galgano and others, 1998). Additionally, the National Research Council (1990) recommended the use of historical shoreline analysis in the absence of a widely accepted model of shoreline change.

  3. Land change monitoring, assessment, and projection (LCMAP) revolutionizes land cover and land change research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Steven

    2017-05-02

    When nature and humanity change Earth’s landscapes - through flood or fire, public policy, natural resources management, or economic development - the results are often dramatic and lasting.Wildfires can reshape ecosystems. Hurricanes with names like Sandy or Katrina will howl for days while altering the landscape for years. One growing season in the evolution of drought-resistant genetics can transform semiarid landscapes into farm fields.In the past, valuable land cover maps created for understanding the effects of those events - whether changes in wildlife habitat, water-quality impacts, or the role land use and land cover play in affecting weather and climate - came out at best every 5 to 7 years. Those high quality, high resolution maps were good, but users always craved more: even higher quality data, additional land cover and land change variables, more detailed legends, and most importantly, more frequent land change information.Now a bold new initiative called Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) promises to fulfill that demand.Developed at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, LCMAP provides definitive, timely information on how, why, and where the planet is changing. LCMAP’s continuous monitoring process can detect changes as they happen every day that Landsat satellites acquire clear observations. The result will be to place near real-time information in the hands of land and resource managers who need to understand the effects these changes have on landscapes.

  4. Fisheries and Oceans Canada climate change risk assessment initiative

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dalpe, R. [Fisheries and Oceans, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2005-07-01

    This paper provided an overview of an initiative undertaken by the Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) Canada to assess the risks associated with climate change on Canada's waterways and aquatic resources over the next 10 to 20 years. It discussed the risk associated with changes in water temperature and level in increasing the vulnerability of fish stocks and ecosystems. A decrease in water levels is also an issue as it will render current infrastructure ineffective. Storm surges can also have an impact on coastal community infrastructure. The purpose of the assessment was to provide DFO management with a structured understanding of the major climate change factors that pose risks to DFO's operations and to establish priorities in identifying appropriate risk mitigation responses. The presentation discussed the different stages of the initiative (planning, identification and evaluation of risk, validation, and reporting), its' challenges and benefits, as well as lessons learned from this exercises. Lessons learned from the project are as follows: get senior level buy-in from the outset; engage the right people; make it easy for others to be engaged; validate results and risk management response; be ready for surprises; and build in some flexibility to the process. figs.

  5. Assessment of Climate Change Effects on Shahcheraghi Reservoir Inflow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. E. Banihabib

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Forecasting the inflow to the reservoir is important issues due to the limited water resources and the importance of optimal utilization of reservoirs to meet the need for drinking, industry and agriculture in future time periods. In the meantime, ignoring the effects of climate change on meteorological and hydrological parameters and water resources in long-term planning of water resources cause inaccuracy. It is essential to assess the impact of climate change on reservoir operation in arid regions. In this research, climate change impact on hydrological and meteorological variables of the Shahcheragh dam basin, in Semnan Province, was studied using an integrated model of climate change assessment. Materials and Methods: The case study area of this study was located in Damghan Township, Semnan Province, Iran. It is an arid zone. The case study area is a part of the Iran Central Desert. The basin is in 12 km north of the Damghan City and between 53° E to 54° 30’ E longitude and 36° N to 36° 30’ N latitude. The area of the basin is 1,373 km2 with average annual inflow around 17.9 MCM. Total actual evaporation and average annual rainfall are 1,986 mm and 137 mm, respectively. This case study is chosen to test proposed framework for assessment of climate change impact hydrological and meteorological variables of the basin. In the proposed model, LARS-WG and ANN sub-models (7 sub models with a combination of different inputs such as temperature, precipitation and also solar radiation were used for downscaling daily outputs of CGCM3 model under 3 emission scenarios, A2, B1 and A1B and reservoir inflow simulation, respectively. LARS-WG was tested in 99% confidence level before using it as downscaling model and feed-forward neural network was used as raifall-runoff model. Moreover, the base period data (BPD, 1990-2008, were used for calibration. Finally, reservoir inflow was simulated for future period data (FPD of 2015-2044 and

  6. Assessment of climate change effects on Canada's National Park system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suffling, Roger; Scott, Daniel

    2002-03-01

    To estimate the magnitude of climate change anticipated for Canada's 38 National Parks (NPs) and Park Reserves, seasonal temperature and precipitation scenarios were constructed for 2050 and 2090 using the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled model (CGCM1). For each park, we assessed impacts on physical systems, species, ecosystems and people. Important, widespread changes relate to marine and freshwater hydrology, glacial balance, waning permafrost, increased natural disturbance, shorter ice season, northern and upward altitudinal species and biome shifts, and changed visitation patterns. Other changes are regional (e.g., combined East coast subsidence and sea level rise increase coastal erosion and deposition, whereas, on the Pacific coast, tectonic uplift negates sea level rise). Further predictions concern individual parks (e.g., Unique fens of Bruce Peninsular NP will migrate lakewards with lowered water levels, but structural regulation of Lake Huron for navigation and power generation would destroy the fens). Knowledge gaps are the most important findings. For example: we could not form conclusions about glacial mass balance, or its effects on rivers and fjords. Likewise, for the East Coast Labrador Current we could neither estimate temperature and salinity effects of extra iceberg formation, nor the further effects on marine food chains, and breeding park seabirds. We recommend 1) Research on specific large knowledge gaps; 2) Climate change information exchange with protected area agencies in other northern countries; and 3) incorporating climate uncertainty into park plans and management. We discuss options for a new park management philosophy in the face of massive change and uncertainty.

  7. Cost Analysis of Water Transport for Climate Change Impact Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szaleniec, V.; Buytaert, W.

    2012-04-01

    It is expected that climate change will have a strong impact on water resources worldwide. Many studies exist that couple the output of global climate models with hydrological models to assess the impact of climate change on physical water availability. However, the water resources topology of many regions and especially that of cities can be very complex. Changes in physical water availability do therefore not translate easily into impacts on water resources for cities. This is especially the case for cities with a complex water supply topology, for instance because of geographical barriers, strong gradients in precipitation patterns, or competing water uses. In this study we explore the use of cost maps to enable the inclusion of water supply topologies in climate change impact studies. We use the city of Lima as a case study. Lima is the second largest desert city in the world. Although Peru as a whole has no water shortage, extreme gradients exist. Most of the economic activities including the city of Lima are located in the coastal desert. This region is geographically disconnected from the wet Amazon basin because of the Andes mountain range. Hence, water supply is precarious, provided by a complex combination of high mountain ecosystems including wetlands and glaciers, as well as groundwater aquifers depending on recharge from the mountains. We investigate the feasibility and costs of different water abstraction scenarios and the impact of climate change using cost functions for different resources. The option of building inter basins tunnels across the Andes is compared to the costs of desalinating seawater from the Pacific Ocean under different climate change scenarios and population growth scenarios. This approach yields recommendations for the most cost-effective options for the future.

  8. Deducing Climatic Elasticity to Assess Projected Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow Change across China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jianyu; Zhang, Qiang; Zhang, Yongqiang; Chen, Xi; Li, Jianfeng; Aryal, Santosh K.

    2017-10-01

    Climatic elasticity has been widely applied to assess streamflow responses to climate changes. To fully assess impacts of climate under global warming on streamflow and reduce the error and uncertainty from various control variables, we develop a four-parameter (precipitation, catchment characteristics n, and maximum and minimum temperatures) climatic elasticity method named PnT, based on the widely used Budyko framework and simplified Makkink equation. We use this method to carry out the first comprehensive evaluation of the streamflow response to potential climate change for 372 widely spread catchments in China. The PnT climatic elasticity was first evaluated for a period 1980-2000, and then used to evaluate streamflow change response to climate change based on 12 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The results show that (1) the PnT climatic elasticity method is reliable; (2) projected increasing streamflow takes place in more than 60% of the selected catchments, with mean increments of 9% and 15.4% under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively; and (3) uncertainties in the projected streamflow are considerable in several regions, such as the Pearl River and Yellow River, with more than 40% of the selected catchments showing inconsistent change directions. Our results can help Chinese policy makers to manage and plan water resources more effectively, and the PnT climatic elasticity should be applied to other parts of the world.

  9. MRI assessment of whole-brain structural changes in aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Hui; Siu, William; D'Arcy, Ryan Cn; Black, Sandra E; Grajauskas, Lukas A; Singh, Sonia; Zhang, Yunting; Rockwood, Kenneth; Song, Xiaowei

    2017-01-01

    One of the central features of brain aging is the accumulation of multiple age-related structural changes, which occur heterogeneously in individuals and can have immediate or potential clinical consequences. Each of these deficits can coexist and interact, producing both independent and additive impacts on brain health. Many of the changes can be visualized using MRI. To collectively assess whole-brain structural changes, the MRI-based Brain Atrophy and Lesion Index (BALI) has been developed. In this study, we validate this whole-brain health assessment approach using several clinical MRI examinations. Data came from three independent studies: the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative Phase II (n=950; women =47.9%; age =72.7±7.4 years); the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (n=722; women =55.1%; age =72.7±9.9 years); and the Tianjin Medical University General Hospital Research database on older adults (n=170; women =60.0%; age =62.9±9.3 years). The 3.0-Tesla MRI scans were evaluated using the BALI rating scheme on the basis of T1-weighted (T1WI), T2-weighted (T2WI), T2-weighted fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (T2-FLAIR), and T2*-weighted gradient-recalled echo (T2*GRE) images. Atrophy and lesion changes were commonly seen in each MRI test. The BALI scores based on different sequences were highly correlated (Spearman r 2 >0.69; P age ( r 2 >0.29; P 26.48, P aging and dementia-related decline of structural brain health. Inclusion of additional MRI tests increased lesion differentiation. Further research is to integrate MRI tests for a clinical tool to aid the diagnosis and intervention of brain aging.

  10. Methodologies for assessing socio-economic impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smit, B.

    1993-01-01

    Much of the studies on climate change impacts have focused on physical and biological impacts, yet a knowledge of the social and economic impacts of climate change is likely to have a greater impact on the public and on policymakers. A conventional assessment of the impacts of climate change begins with scenarios of future climate, commonly derived from global climate models translated to a regional scale. Estimates of biophysical conditions provided by such scenarios provide a basis for analyses of human impacts, usually considered sector by sector. The scenario approach, although having considerable merit and appeal, has some noteworthy limitations. It encourages consideration of only a small set of scenarios, requires bold assumptions to be made about adjustments in human systems, provides little direct analysis of sensitivities of human social and economic systems to climate perturbations, and usually invokes the assumption that all factors other than climate are stable and have no synergistic effects on human systems. Conventional studies concentrate on average climate, yet climate is inherently variable. A common response to this situation is to propose further development of climate models, but this is not a sufficient or necessary condition for good and useful assessments of impacts on human activities. Different approaches to socioeconomic impact analysis are needed, and approaches should be considered that include identification of sensitivities in a social or ecological system, identification of critical threshold levels or critical speeds of change in variables, and exploration of alternative methodologies such as process studies, spatial and temporal analogues, and socio-economic systems modelling. 5 refs., 3 figs

  11. Comparison of Classical Test Theory and Item Response Theory in Individual Change Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jabrayilov, Ruslan; Emons, Wilco H. M.; Sijtsma, Klaas

    2016-01-01

    Clinical psychologists are advised to assess clinical and statistical significance when assessing change in individual patients. Individual change assessment can be conducted using either the methodologies of classical test theory (CTT) or item response theory (IRT). Researchers have been optimistic

  12. Assessing changes in drought characteristics with standardized indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Najac, Julien; Martin, Eric; Franchistéguy, Laurent; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel

    2010-05-01

    Standardized drought indices like the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) are more and more frequently adopted for drought reconstruction, monitoring and forecasting, and the SPI has been recently recommended by the World Meteorological Organization to characterize meteorological droughts. Such indices are based on the statistical distribution of a hydrometeorological variable (e.g., precipitation) in a given reference climate, and a drought event is defined as a period with continuously negative index values. Because of the way these indices are constructed, some issues may arise when using them in a non-stationnary climate. This work thus aims at highlighting such issues and demonstrating the different ways these indices may - or may not - be applied and interpreted in the context of an anthropogenic climate change. Three major points are detailed through examples taken from both a high-resolution gridded reanalysis dataset over France and transient projections from the ARPEGE general circulation model downscaled over France. The first point deals with the choice of the reference climate, and more specifically its type (from observations/reanalysis or from present-day modelled climate) and its record period. Second, the interpretation of actual changes are closely linked with the type of the selected drought feature over a future period: mean index value, under-threshold frequency, or drought event characteristics (number, mean duration and magnitude, seasonality, etc.). Finally, applicable approaches as well as related uncertainties depend on the availability of data from a future climate, whether in the form of a fully transient time series from present-day or only a future time slice. The projected evolution of drought characteristics under climate change must inform present decisions on long-term water resources planning. An assessment of changes in drought characteristics should therefore provide water managers with appropriate information that can help

  13. Examination of nuclear systems of fourth generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    This report proposes a detailed discussion of the six nuclear systems selected by the Generation IV International Forum with the objective of coordinating research and development activities which should result in the deployment of nuclear systems (reactors and associated fuel cycle installations) of fourth generation by the second half of the 21. century. These systems are: sodium cooled fast reactors (SFR), very high temperature reactors (VHTR), gas cooled fast reactors (GFR), lead cooled fast reactors (LFR) or lead bismuth eutectic reactors (LBE), molten salt reactors (MSR), and supercritical water reactors (SCWR). Fast systems are interesting as they favour the transmutation of fertile materials into fissile materials. History and perspectives of development, main characteristics, management of safety functions, risk analysis, impact on the environment, radiation protection and decommissioning, concept maturity and R and D needs are discussed for each of these systems. A comparison is reported in terms of main characteristics of reactors, of neutron characteristics and reactivity control, of sensitivity to cooling losses, of confinement function, of exploitation safety, of in-service inspection, of behaviour in case of severe accident, of toxicity of chemical substances, of sensitivity to aggressions (seism), of concept maturity and technological difficulties. The report also proposes a review of the various fuels which can be used in these different systems and which have been considered as eligible by the International Forum: oxides, carbides, nitrides, metals, waste processing. The last part addresses the transmutation of long life radioactive elements: physics, context, assessment of scenarios soundness, influence of transmutation on installations and transports

  14. Heading for the fourth nuclear age

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levite, A.E.

    2009-07-01

    The author examines the evolution of the global nuclear order since the advent of nuclear weapons in 1945 to present by breaking down the sixty-plus years of nuclear history into three analytically distinct 'ages', each lasting roughly twenty years. By doing so, the author traces back the roots of the current nuclear predicament to some early seeds of trouble which have gradually grown more profound. He attributes much of the unraveling of the nuclear order to: - Certain inherent weaknesses in the original NPT formula; - Changes in the global distribution of power since the codification of the nuclear order in the 1960's; - The dissemination of nuclear weapon technology; and - Complacency and subsequent disillusionment with the nuclear order since the early 1990's. The paper further analyzes what could precipitate a new nuclear age around 2010. The author argues that such a 'fourth nuclear age' would likely be characterized by either a nuclear anarchy, which he believes has become the default option, or a more benign nuclear order manifested by lower numbers of weapons and stringent controls and restrictions on remaining nuclear arsenals and activities. He concludes by considering the more pressing requirements for regaining nuclear stability

  15. Heading for the fourth nuclear age

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levite, A.E.

    2009-01-01

    The author examines the evolution of the global nuclear order since the advent of nuclear weapons in 1945 to present by breaking down the sixty-plus years of nuclear history into three analytically distinct 'ages', each lasting roughly twenty years. By doing so, the author traces back the roots of the current nuclear predicament to some early seeds of trouble which have gradually grown more profound. He attributes much of the unraveling of the nuclear order to: - Certain inherent weaknesses in the original NPT formula; - Changes in the global distribution of power since the codification of the nuclear order in the 1960's; - The dissemination of nuclear weapon technology; and - Complacency and subsequent disillusionment with the nuclear order since the early 1990's. The paper further analyzes what could precipitate a new nuclear age around 2010. The author argues that such a 'fourth nuclear age' would likely be characterized by either a nuclear anarchy, which he believes has become the default option, or a more benign nuclear order manifested by lower numbers of weapons and stringent controls and restrictions on remaining nuclear arsenals and activities. He concludes by considering the more pressing requirements for regaining nuclear stability

  16. Fourth lepton family is natural in technicolor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frandsen, Mads T.; Masina, Isabella; Sannino, Francesco

    2010-01-01

    Imagine discovering a new fourth family of leptons at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) but no signs of an associated fourth family of quarks. What would that imply? An intriguing possibility is that the new fermions needed to compensate for the new leptons gauge anomalies simultaneously address the big hierarchy problem of the standard model. A natural way to accomplish such a scenario is to have the Higgs itself be a composite of these new fermions. This is the setup we are going to investigate in this paper using as a template minimal walking technicolor. We analyze a general heavy neutrino mass structure with and without mixing with the standard model families. We also analyze the LHC potential to observe the fourth lepton family in tandem with the new composite Higgs dynamics. We finally introduce a model uniting the fourth lepton family and the technifermion sector at higher energies.

  17. Fourth Regional Meeting: Nuclear Energy in Central Europe, Proceedings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mavko, B; Cizelj, L [eds.; Nuclear Society of Slovenia (Slovenia)

    1997-07-01

    Fourth Regional Meeting for Nuclear Energy in Central Europe is an annual meeting of the Nuclear Society of Slovenia. The proceedings contain 89 articles from Slovenia, surrounding countries and countries of the Central and Eastern European Region. Topics are: Research Reactors, Reactor Physics, Probabilistic Safety Assessment, Severe Accidents, Ageing and Integrity, Thermal Hydraulics, NPP Operation Experiance, Radioactive Waste Management, Environment and Other Aspects, Public and Nuclear Energy, SG Replacement and Plant Uprating.

  18. The European programme on climatic change. Assessment and perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Creach, Morgane

    2008-09-01

    After having recalled how the ratification of the Kyoto protocol became the basis of the European programme for the struggle against climatic change (operation of flexibility mechanisms) and how this programme has been implemented, this report describes the content of the first European Climate Change Programme which notably addressed the energy sector with the promotion of energy efficiency and renewable energies, the transport sector, the industry sector with the implementation of the European trading scheme for CO 2 emissions, and a regulation on some fluoridated gases. The second part proposes a contrasted assessment of this first programme. It outlines the difficulties to meet the Kyoto objective and identifies the main reason for that, i.e. the limited abilities of the EU to apply the Kyoto protocol. The third part presents the second programme with an integrated climate-energy policy, the integration of the air transport sector within the ETS, a new strategy of reduction of CO 2 emissions by cars, and the definition of a strategy for adaptation to climate change in Europe

  19. Distributional aspects of emissions in climate change integrated assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cantore, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    The recent failure of Copenhagen negotiations shows that concrete actions are needed to create the conditions for a consensus over global emission reduction policies. A wide coalition of countries in international climate change agreements could be facilitated by the perceived fairness of rich and poor countries of the abatement sharing at international level. In this paper I use two popular climate change integrated assessment models to investigate the path and decompose components and sources of future inequality in the emissions distribution. Results prove to be consistent with previous empirical studies and robust to model comparison and show that gaps in GDP across world regions will still play a crucial role in explaining different countries contributions to global warming. - Research highlights: → I implement a scenario analysis with two global climate change models. → I analyse inequality in the distribution of emissions. → I decompose emissions inequality components. → I find that GDP per capita is the main Kaya identity source of emissions inequality. → Current rich countries will mostly remain responsible for emissions inequality.

  20. Climate Change 2013. The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - Abstract for decision-makers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stocker, Thomas F.; Qin, Dahe; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Tignor, Melinda M.B.; Allen, Simon K.; Boschung, Judith; Nauels, Alexander; Xia, Yu; Bex, Vincent; Midgley, Pauline M.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Allen, Simon K.; Bindoff, Nathaniel L.; Breon, Francois-Marie; Church, John A.; Cubasch, Ulrich; Emori, Seita; Forster, Piers; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gillett, Nathan; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Hartmann, Dennis L.; Jansen, Eystein; Kirtman, Ben; Knutti, Reto; Kumar Kanikicharla, Krishna; Lemke, Peter; Marotzke, Jochem; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Meehl, Gerald A.; Mokhov, Igor I.; Piao, Shilong; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Dahe, Qin; Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam; Randall, David; Rhein, Monika; Rojas, Maisa; Sabine, Christopher; Shindell, Drew; Stocker, Thomas F.; Talley, Lynne D.; Vaughan, David G.; Xie, Shang-Ping; Allen, Myles R.; Boucher, Olivier; Chambers, Don; Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Peter U.; Collins, Matthew; Comiso, Josefino C.; Vasconcellos de Menezes, Viviane; Feely, Richard A.; Fichefet, Thierry; Fiore, Arlene M.; Flato, Gregory; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Hegerl, Gabriele; Hezel, Paul J.; Johnson, Gregory C.; Kaser, Georg; Kattsov, Vladimir; Kennedy, John; Klein Tank, Albert M.G.; Le Quere, Corinne; Myhre, Gunnar; Osborn, Timothy; Payne, Antony J.; Perlwitz, Judith; Power, Scott; Prather, Michael; Rintoul, Stephen R.; Rogelj, Joeri; Rusticucci, Matilde; Schulz, Michael; Sedlacek, Jan; Stott, Peter A.; Sutton, Rowan; Thorne, Peter W.; Wuebbles, Donald

    2013-10-01

    The Working Group I contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical science basis of climate change. It builds upon the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 and incorporates subsequent new findings from the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, as well as from research published in the extensive scientific and technical literature. The assessment considers new evidence of past, present and projected future climate change based on many independent scientific analyses from observations of the climate system, paleo-climate archives, theoretical studies of climate processes and simulations using climate models. During the process of scoping and approving the outline of its Fifth Assessment Report, the IPCC focussed on those aspects of the current understanding of the science of climate change that were judged to be most relevant to policy-makers. In this report, Working Group I has extended coverage of future climate change compared to earlier reports by assessing near-term projections and predictability as well as long-term projections and irreversibility in two separate chapters. Following the decisions made by the Panel during the scoping and outline approval, a set of new scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways, are used across all three Working Groups for projections of climate change over the 21. century. The coverage of regional information in the Working Group I report is expanded by specifically assessing climate phenomena such as monsoon systems and their relevance to future climate change in the regions. The Working Group I Report is an assessment, not a review or a text book of climate science, and is based on the published scientific and technical literature available up to 15 March 2013. Underlying all aspects of the report is a

  1. The fourth dimension in FIA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis A. Roesch

    2012-01-01

    In the past, the goal of forest inventory was to determine the extent of the timber resource. Predictions of how the resource was changing were made by comparing differences between successive inventories. The general view of the associated sample design included selection probabilities based on land area observed at a discrete point in time. That is, time was not...

  2. An Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, K. S.

    2009-09-01

    adaptation, mitigation and post-hazard recovery and resettlement measures. Providing basic necessities such as water, food and power, maintaining public health, implementing protective measures in the coastal zones and modifications in the urban infrastructure, especially in the coastal megacities become expensive. Impact of extremes on rails, roads and building are also becoming a major issue in the coastal zones and urban centres. Industrial sector is facing a threat from the falling reliable supply of water and power. However, procedure for the implementation of the strategies to mitigate the climate change impact and of the policy for the adaptation to climate change is slow. There are several hurdles for this, including various ecological, socio-economic, technical and political issues, alterations of the physical environment, inability of certain habitats and species to adapt to a new environment, abject poverty, lack of awareness, and the inefficient administrative mechanism. A comprehensive assessment of the shifts in regional climate and the impact of climate change on different facets of life in India, and of the current strategies and polices to face such challenges is made in this study. Suggestions for the improvement of the climate policy and adaptation strategy have been provided.

  3. Health impact assessment of climate change in Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, Deborah Imel

    2003-01-01

    Global climate change (GCC) may have serious and irreversible impacts. Improved methods are needed to predict and quantify health impacts, so that appropriate risk management strategies can be focused on vulnerable areas. The disability-adjusted life year (DALY) is proposed as an effective tool in environmental health impact assessment (HIA). The DALY accounts for years of life lost to premature death and/or morbidity. Both the DALY and the determinants-of-health approach are applied to HIA of GCC in Bangladesh. Based on historical data, a major storm event may result in approximately 290 DALY per 1000 population, including both deaths and injuries, compared to a current all-cause rate of about 280 per 1000 in the region. A more precise result would require a large input of data; however, this level of analysis may be sufficient to rank risks, and to motivate and target risk management efforts

  4. Climate Change Impact Assessment for Sustainable Water Quality Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Pin Tung

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of sustainable water quality management is to keep total pollutant discharges from exceeding the assimilation capacity of a water body. Climate change may influence streamflows, and further alter assimilation capacity and degrade river sustainability. The purposes of this study are to evaluate the effect of climate change on sustainable water quality management and design an early warning indicator to issue warnings on river sustainability. A systematic assessment procedure is proposed here, including a weather generation model, the streamflow component of GWLF, QUAL2E, and an optimization model. The Touchen creek in Taiwan is selected as the study area. Future climate scenarios derived from projections of four global climate models (GCMs and two pollutant discharge scenarios, as usual and proportional to population, are considered in this study. The results indicate that streamflows may very likely increase in humid seasons and decrease in arid seasons, respectively. The reduction of streamflow in arid seasons may further degrade water quality and assimilation capacity. In order to provide warnings to trigger necessary adaptation strategies, an early warning indicator is designed and its 30-year moving average is calculated. Finally, environmental monitoring systems and methods to prioritize adaptation strategies are discussed for further studies in the future.

  5. First and Fourth-Year Student's Perceptions about Importance of Nursing Care Behaviors: Socialization toward Caring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamanzadeh, Vahid; Valizadeh, Leila; Azimzadeh, Roghaieh; Aminaie, Nasim; Yousefzadeh, Sedigeh

    2014-06-01

    The essence of professional nursing is caring and so, nursing education must make caring as a significant part of their curricula. In this regard, little research exists about how nursing students perceive caring. The aim of this study is to investigate the nursing students' perception toward caring and thus, the impact of socialization process on their perception of caring will be determined. A cross-sectional study was done among all first and fourth-year nursing students (n=230) in Tabriz and Urmia faculties of nursing, 2012. Data were collected using Larson's Caring Questionnaire that assessed the importance of nursing care behaviors (n=50) in six dimensions: "being accessible", "explains and facilitates", "comforts", "anticipates", "trusting relationship" and "monitors and follows through". The importance of caring behaviors was evaluated by the first and fourth-year nursing students in moderate to high level and also, the both groups considered higher ranks for "monitors and follows through" and "being accessible" and lower ranks for "anticipates" and "trusting relationships". The fourth-year students only ranked "explains and facilitates" higher than the first-year students, but the "comforts" dimension is not differed significantly between groups. The findings demonstrated that nursing education in this study has not likely succeeded in producing intended changes in the nursing students' perceptions. It is recommended to exactly find the perceptual changes or in principle the professional socialization process of nursing students, more research using longitudinal designs be conducted to examine the differences in students' perceptions of caring upon entering and completing the nursing program.

  6. A risk assessment framework for irrigated agriculture under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronco, P.; Zennaro, F.; Torresan, S.; Critto, A.; Santini, M.; Trabucco, A.; Zollo, A. L.; Galluccio, G.; Marcomini, A.

    2017-12-01

    In several regions, but especially in semi-arid areas, raising frequency, duration and intensity of drought events, mainly driven by climate change dynamics, are expected to dramatically reduce the current stocks of freshwater resources, limiting crop development and yield especially where agriculture largely depends on irrigation. The achievement of an affordable and sustainable equilibrium between available water resources and irrigation demand is essentially related to the planning and implementation of evidence-based adaptation strategies and actions. The present study proposed a state-of-the art conceptual framework and computational methodology to assess the potential water scarcity risk, due to changes in climate trends and variability, on irrigated croplands. The model has been tested over the irrigated agriculture of Puglia Region, a semi-arid territory with the largest agricultural production in Southern Italy. The methodology, based on the Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) approach, has been applied within a scenario-based hazard framework. Regional climate projections, under alternative greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and for two different timeframes, 2021-2050 and 2041-2070 compared to the baseline 1976-2005 period, have been used to drive hydrological simulations of river inflow to the most important reservoirs serving irrigation purposes in Puglia. The novelty of the proposed RRA-based approach does not simply rely on the concept of risk as combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, but rather elaborates detailed (scientific and conceptual) framing and computational description of these factors, to produce risk spatial pattern maps and related statistics distinguishing the most critical areas (risk hot spots).. The application supported the identification of the most affected areas (i.e. Capitanata Reclamation Consortia under RCP8.5 2041-2070 scenario), crops (fruit trees and vineyards), and, finally, the vulnerability

  7. Assessement of user needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger-Knutti, Jacqueline

    2016-04-01

    There is a growing demand to assess and inform about future climate change and its impacts on society and ecosystems and to deduce appropriate adaptation strategies. The basis for such assessments are reliable and up-to-date climate change scenarios on the local to regional scale. In Switzerland, an important step has been accomplished by the release of the climate scenarios in 2011 ("CH2011"). New climate model simulations, an improved scientific understanding and new statistical downscaling tools make an update of these scenarios necessary. An important component toward the new national scenarios "CH2018" are the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user-tailored and hence find a wide applicability. The new CH2018 scenarios are developed in the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS). To get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need, a comprehensive market research was undertaken. The survey targeted the most climate-relevant sectors, and considered representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, as well as a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users. Additionally, two workshops were organized to gather the needs in dissemination of climate scenarios. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the user needs according to the level of usage: "intensive users" are mainly researchers who handle large climate scenario data for further use in subsequent impact studies; "extensive users" are usually from administrations or consulting companies and perform simple calculations for specific questions or use provided graphics and tables; "facilitators" are usually from media, NGOs or schools and process and disseminate scenario information for a specific target group. The less intensive the usage of climate

  8. Electroencephalography in ellipsoidal geometry with fourth-order harmonics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcocer-Sosa, M; Gutierrez, D

    2016-08-01

    We present a solution to the electroencephalographs (EEG) forward problem of computing the scalp electric potentials for the case when the head's geometry is modeled using a four-shell ellipsoidal geometry and the brain sources with an equivalent current dipole (ECD). The proposed solution includes terms up to the fourth-order ellipsoidal harmonics and we compare this new approximation against those that only considered up to second- and third-order harmonics. Our comparisons use as reference a solution in which a tessellated volume approximates the head and the forward problem is solved through the boundary element method (BEM). We also assess the solution to the inverse problem of estimating the magnitude of an ECD through different harmonic approximations. Our results show that the fourth-order solution provides a better estimate of the ECD in comparison to lesser order ones.

  9. Fourth Tennessee water resources symposium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sale, M.J.; Presley, P.M.

    1991-01-01

    The annual Tennessee Water Resources Symposium was initiated in 1988 as a means to bring together people with common interests in the state's important water-related resources at a technical, professional level. Initially the symposium was sponsored by the American Institute of Hydrology and called the Hydrology Symposium, but the Tennessee Section of the American Water Resources Association (AWRA) has taken on the primary coordination role for the symposium over the last two years and the symposium name was changed in 1990 to water resources to emphasize a more inter-disciplinary theme. This year's symposium carries on the successful tradition of the last three years. Our goal is to promote communication and cooperation among Tennessee's water resources professionals: scientists, engineers, and researchers from federal, state, academic, and private institutions and organizations who have interests and responsibilities for the state's water resources. For these conference proceedings, individual papers are processed separately for the Energy Data Base

  10. Fourth branchial complex anomalies: a case series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrime, Mark; Kacker, Ashutosh; Bent, John; Ward, Robert F

    2003-11-01

    Anomalies of the fourth branchial arch complex are exceedingly rare, with approximately forty cases reported in the literature since 1972. The authors report experience with six fourth arch anomalies. Retrospective chart review of six consecutive patients presenting to the pediatric otolaryngology service at a tertiary care center with anomalies referable to the fourth branchial arch. All six patients presented within the first or second decade of life. All six had left-sided disease. Four patients presented with recurrent neck infection, one with asymptomatic cervical masses, and one with a neck mass and respiratory compromise. One patient had prior surgery presented with a recurrence. Diagnosis of fourth arch anomalies was suggested or confirmed by computed tomography and flexible laryngoscopy. Treatment was surgical in five patients; one patient is awaiting surgery. Surgical procedures included resection of the mass and endoscopic cauterization of the inner opening of the cyst. The presentation of a cervical mass, especially with recurrent infections and especially on the left side, in a child in the first or second decade of life heightens suspicion for an anomaly of the fourth branchial arch. Diagnosis can be difficult, but is aided by the use of flexible laryngoscopy, Computed tomography (CT) scanning and ultrasonography. Surgical resection of the cyst and cauterization of its pyriform sinus opening should be undertaken to minimize recurrence.

  11. Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.

    2011-01-01

    The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1m is also analyzed that appears to be complete since approximately 1960. Various kernel density estimates used to determine the rate distribution with time indicate a prominent rate change in global tsunamis during the mid-1990s. Less prominent rate changes occur in the early- and mid-20th century. To determine whether these rate fluctuations are anomalous, the distribution of annual event numbers for the tsunami catalogue is compared to Poisson and negative binomial distributions, the latter of which includes the effects of temporal clustering. Compared to a Poisson distribution, the negative binomial distribution model provides a consistent fit to tsunami event numbers for the >1m data set, but the Poisson null hypothesis cannot be falsified for the shorter duration >0.1m data set. Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is also indicated by the distribution of interevent times for both data sets. Tsunami event clusters consist only of two to four events, in contrast to protracted sequences of earthquakes that make up foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequences. From past studies of seismicity, it is likely that there is a physical triggering mechanism responsible for events within the tsunami source 'mini-clusters'. In conclusion, prominent transient rate increases in the occurrence of global tsunamis appear to be caused by temporal grouping of geographically distinct mini-clusters, in addition to the random preferential location of global M >7 earthquakes along offshore fault zones.

  12. Assessment of watershed regionalization for the land use change parameterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randusová, Beata; Kohnová, Silvia; Studvová, Zuzana; Marková, Romana; Nosko, Radovan

    2016-04-01

    The estimation of design discharges and water levels of extreme floods is one of the most important parts of the design process for a large number of engineering projects and studies. Floods and other natural hazards initiated by climate, soil, and land use changes are highly important in the 21st century. Flood risks and design flood estimation is particularly challenging. Methods of design flood estimation can be applied either locally or regionally. To obtain the design values in such cases where no recorded data exist, many countries have adopted procedures that fit the local conditions and requirements. One of these methods is the Soil Conservation Service - Curve number (SCS-CN) method which is often used in design flood estimation for ungauged sites. The SCS-CN method is an empirical rainfall-runoff model developed by the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (formerly called the Soil Conservation Service or SCS). The runoff curve number (CN) is based on the hydrological soil characteristics, land use, land management and antecedent saturation conditions of soil. This study is focused on development of the SCS-CN methodology for the changing land use conditions in Slovak basins (with the pilot site of the Myjava catchment), which regionalize actual state of land use data and actual rainfall and discharge measurements of the selected river basins. In this study the state of the water erosion and sediment transport along with a subsequent proposal of erosion control measures was analyzed as well. The regionalized SCS-CN method was subsequently used for assessing the effectiveness of this control measure to reduce runoff from the selected basin. For the determination of the sediment transport from the control measure to the Myjava basin, the SDR (Sediment Delivery Ratio) model was used.

  13. Assessment of indoor radon gas concentration change of college

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Hoon Hee; Jeong, Eui Hwan; Kim, Hak Jae; Lyu, Kang Yeul [Dept. of of Radiological Technology, Shingu College, Seongnam (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Ju Young [Dept. of Radiological Technology, Songho College, Hoengseong (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-03-15

    The purpose of this study was to assess the impact by comparing the concentration of indoor radon and look for ways to lower the concentration of indoor radon gas measurements of three variables, the year of completion, volume of the building and ventilation. Measurement target is six classrooms on the sixth floor of building that was constructed in 1973 and was extended in 2011. Selected classroom's volume is different. Four classrooms were selected to compare the radon concentration in accordance with the year of completion, Classrooms that is same year of completion were selected to compare the radon concentration in accordance with the volume, six classroom was performed closure and ventilation to compare radon concentration according to ventilation. Radon concentrations in accordance with the year of building completion showed a high concentration of radon in a building recently built. Also, Radon concentration in volume is high the smaller the volume. Radon concentration change according to ventilation showed a reduction of about 80% when the ventilation than during closing. Especially, The radon concentrations were high detected while the recently year of building completion and the smaller volume. Ventilation of the three variables is considered that can be expected to exposure reduction effect by radon affecting the greatest radon concentration reduction.

  14. Assessment of indoor radon gas concentration change of college

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Hoon Hee; Jeong, Eui Hwan; Kim, Hak Jae; Lyu, Kang Yeul; Lee, Ju Young

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the impact by comparing the concentration of indoor radon and look for ways to lower the concentration of indoor radon gas measurements of three variables, the year of completion, volume of the building and ventilation. Measurement target is six classrooms on the sixth floor of building that was constructed in 1973 and was extended in 2011. Selected classroom's volume is different. Four classrooms were selected to compare the radon concentration in accordance with the year of completion, Classrooms that is same year of completion were selected to compare the radon concentration in accordance with the volume, six classroom was performed closure and ventilation to compare radon concentration according to ventilation. Radon concentrations in accordance with the year of building completion showed a high concentration of radon in a building recently built. Also, Radon concentration in volume is high the smaller the volume. Radon concentration change according to ventilation showed a reduction of about 80% when the ventilation than during closing. Especially, The radon concentrations were high detected while the recently year of building completion and the smaller volume. Ventilation of the three variables is considered that can be expected to exposure reduction effect by radon affecting the greatest radon concentration reduction

  15. Second California Assessment: Integrated climate change impacts assessment of natural and managed systems. Guest editorial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, G.; Cayan, D.R.; Moser, S.; Hanemann, M.; Jones, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    Since 2006 the scientific community in California, in cooperation with resource managers, has been conducting periodic statewide studies about the potential impacts of climate change on natural and managed systems. This Special Issue is a compilation of revised papers that originate from the most recent assessment that concluded in 2009. As with the 2006 studies that influenced the passage of California's landmark Global Warming Solutions Act (AB32), these papers have informed policy formulation at the state level, helping bring climate adaptation as a complementary measure to mitigation. We provide here a brief introduction to the papers included in this Special Issue focusing on how they are coordinated and support each other. We describe the common set of downscaled climate and sea-level rise scenarios used in this assessment that came from six different global climate models (GCMs) run under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: B1 (low emissions) and A2 (a medium-high emissions). Recommendations for future state assessments, some of which are being implemented in an on-going new assessment that will be completed in 2012, are offered. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  16. 77 FR 24722 - Draft Guidance for Industry: Assessing the Effects of Significant Manufacturing Process Changes...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-25

    ...] Draft Guidance for Industry: Assessing the Effects of Significant Manufacturing Process Changes... Manufacturing Process Changes, Including Emerging Technologies, on the Safety and Regulatory Status of Food... determining whether changes in manufacturing process, including the intentional reduction in particle size to...

  17. National assessment of shoreline change: historical shoreline change along the Pacific Northwest coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruggerio, Peter; Kratzmann, Meredith G.; Himmelstoss, Emily A.; Reid, David; Allan, Jonathan; Kaminsky, George

    2013-01-01

    shoreline change analyses incorporated only four total shorelines to represent specific time periods. This assessment of the PNW incorporates all available shorelines that meet minimum quality standards for resolution and positional accuracy. Shoreline change evaluations are based on a comparison of historical shoreline positions digitized from maps or aerial photographic data sources with recent shorelines, at least one of which is derived from lidar surveys. The historical shorelines cover a variety of time periods ranging from the 1800s through the 1980s, whereas the lidar shoreline is from 2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated using all available shoreline data and short-term rates of change are calculated using the lidar shoreline and the historical shoreline that will produce an assessment for a 15- to 35-year period. The rates of change presented in this report represent conditions up to the date of only the most recent shoreline data and therefore are not intended for predicting future shoreline positions or rates of change. The PNW coast was subdivided into eight analysis regions for the purpose of graphically reporting regional trends in shoreline change rates. The average rate of long-term shoreline change for the entire PNW coast was 0.9 meter per year (m/yr) of progradation with an uncertainty of 0.07 m/yr. This rate is based on 8,823 individual transects, of which 36 percent was determined to be eroding. Long-term shoreline change was generally more progradational in Washington than in Oregon. This is primarily due to the influence of the Columbia River and human perturbations to the natural system, particularly the construction of jetties at both the mouth of the Columbia River and at Grays Harbor, Washington. The majority of the beaches in southwestern Washington have responded to these large-scale engineered structures by experiencing dramatic beach progradation during the past century. Although these beaches are still responding to the human

  18. Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, P.

    2014-12-01

    This environmental health risk assessment and management approach for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is based almost entirely on IPCC AR5 (2014) content, but the IPCC does not make recommendations. Large climate model uncertainties may be large environmental health risks. In accordance with environmental health risk management, we use the standard (IPCC-endorsed) formula of risk as the product of magnitude times probability, with an extremely high standard of precaution. Atmospheric GHG pollution, causing global warming, climate change and ocean acidification, is increasing as fast as ever. Time is of the essence to inform and make recommendations to governments and the public. While the 2ºC target is the only formally agreed-upon policy limit, for the most vulnerable nations, a 1.5ºC limit is being considered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. The Climate Action Network International (2014), representing civil society, recommends that the 1.5ºC limit be kept open and that emissions decline from 2015. James Hansen et al (2013) have argued that 1ºC is the danger limit. Taking into account committed global warming, its millennial duration, multiple large sources of amplifying climate feedbacks and multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change on crops, and population health impacts, all the IPCC AR5 scenarios carry extreme environmental health risks to large human populations and to the future of humanity as a whole. Our risk consideration finds that 2ºC carries high risks of many catastrophic impacts, that 1.5ºC carries high risks of many disastrous impacts, and that 1ºC is the danger limit. IPCC AR4 (2007) showed that emissions must be reversed by 2015 for a 2ºC warming limit. For the IPCC AR5 only the best-case scenario RCP2.6, is projected to stay under 2ºC by 2100 but the upper range is just above 2ºC. It calls for emissions to decline by 2020. We recommend that for catastrophic environmental health risk aversion, emissions decline

  19. Natural science textbooks for the fourth grade and their text difficulty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Libuše Hrabí

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents findings regarding an assessment of the difficulty of text in six current Czech natural science textbooks for the fourth grade. The textual analysis was carried out according to a modified Průcha method. The results indicate that textual difficulty varies in the textbooks examined (19 - 31 points. Textbooks published by the Alter, Fortuna and SPN publishing companies are suitable for teaching in the fourth grade.

  20. Lepton sector of a fourth generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burdman, G.; Da Rold, L.; Matheus, R. D.

    2010-01-01

    In extensions of the standard model with a heavy fourth generation, one important question is what makes the fourth-generation lepton sector, particularly the neutrinos, so different from the lighter three generations. We study this question in the context of models of electroweak symmetry breaking in warped extra dimensions, where the flavor hierarchy is generated by choosing the localization of the zero-mode fermions in the extra dimension. In this setup the Higgs sector is localized near the infrared brane, whereas the Majorana mass term is localized at the ultraviolet brane. As a result, light neutrinos are almost entirely Majorana particles, whereas the fourth-generation neutrino is mostly a Dirac fermion. We show that it is possible to obtain heavy fourth-generation leptons in regions of parameter space where the light neutrino masses and mixings are compatible with observation. We study the impact of these bounds, as well as the ones from lepton flavor violation, on the phenomenology of these models.

  1. Trend chart: wind power. Fourth quarter 2017

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moreau, Sylvain

    2018-02-01

    This publication presents the wind energy situation of continental France and overseas territories during the fourth quarter 2017: total connected load, new connected facilities, regional distribution of wind power production, evolution of quarterly production, distribution of facilities versus power, evolution forecasts of the French wind power park, projects in progress, detailed regional results, revision of results

  2. Thymic cyst: a fourth branchial cleft anomaly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayan, Smriti; MacLean, Jonathan; Sommer, Doron

    2010-01-01

    We report a unique case of a fourth branchial cleft cyst found within the thymus of an adult patient. In the literature to date, there have been no reports of such a finding in the adult population. These anomalies can often cause recurrent acute suppurative thyroiditis or recurrent deep neck abscesses. Delay in recognizing the underlying etiology can lead to significant complications.

  3. Report of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable

    OpenAIRE

    Michael F. Bryan; John B. Martin

    1994-01-01

    A summary of the 1994 forecasts for real output and inflation presented by 15 members of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable at their January 1994 meeting, highlighting the measurement of service sector prices and the role of small businesses in creating jobs.

  4. Fourth Dutch Process Security Control Event

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luiijf, H.A.M.; Zielstra, A.

    2010-01-01

    On December 1st, 2009, the fourth Dutch Process Control Security Event took place in Baarn, The Netherlands. The security event with the title ‘Manage IT!’ was organised by the Dutch National Infrastructure against Cybercrime (NICC). Mid of November, a group of over thirty people participated in the

  5. Diet and Cancer: The Fourth Paradigm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter C. Willett, MD, DrPH, an international expert in diet and nutrition, with posts as a Professor of Epidemiology and Nutrition and Chairman of the Department of Nutrition at Harvard School of Public Health and as Professor of Medicine at Harvard Medical School, presented "Diet and Cancer: The Fourth Paradigm".

  6. The Computer and the Fourth Revolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molnar, Andrew R.

    An overview is provided of the Fourth Revolution, i.e., the revolution which is taking place in education as a result of the introduction of computers into the field. The growth of computing in education, especially in higher education, is traced, and some major National Science Foundation (NSF) programs are mentioned. Following this, a few of the…

  7. Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2013-04-01

    showed some unexpected results, where climate models predicting the largest increase in net precipitation did not result in the largest increase in groundwater heads. This was found to be the result of different initial conditions (1990 - 2010) for the various climate models. In some areas a combination of a high initial groundwater head and an increase in precipitation towards 2021 - 2050 resulted in a groundwater head raise that reached the drainage or the surface water system. This will increase the exchange from the groundwater to the surface water system, but reduce the raise in groundwater heads. An alternative climate model, with a lower initial head can thus predict a higher increase in the groundwater head, although the increase in precipitation is lower. This illustrates an extra dimension in the uncertainty assessment, namely the climate models capability of simulating the current climatic conditions in a way that can reproduce the observed hydrological response. Højberg, AL, Troldborg, L, Stisen, S, et al. (2012) Stakeholder driven update and improvement of a national water resources model - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815212002423 Seaby, LP, Refsgaard, JC, Sonnenborg, TO, et al. (2012) Assessment of robustness and significance of climate change signals for an ensemble of distribution-based scaled climate projections (submitted) Journal of Hydrology Stisen, S, Højberg, AL, Troldborg, L et al., (2012): On the importance of appropriate rain-gauge catch correction for hydrological modelling at mid to high latitudes - http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/16/4157/2012/

  8. Fourth Semiannual Report to the Congress by the United States Atomic Energy Commission, July 1948

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lilienthal, David E.; Bacher, Robert F.; Pike, Sumner T.; Strauss, Lewis L.; Waymack, William W.

    1948-07-01

    The document includes the letter of submittal and the Fourth semiannual report. These reports are called for pursuant to Section 17 of the Atomic Energy Act of 1946. This fourth report incorporates some changes to the report. In order to make these reports of maximum value to Members of Congress, the Commission has prepared this mid-year report as a specialized document giving a comprehensive account of several major phases of the atomic energy program.

  9. Assessing impact of climate change on season length in Karnataka

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Changes in seasons and season length are an indicator, as well as an effect, of climate change. Seasonal change profoundly affects the balance of life in ecosystems and impacts essential human activities such as agriculture and irrigation. This study investigates the uncertainty of season length in Karnataka state, India, ...

  10. The international challenge of climate change: UK leadership in the G8 and EU fourth report of session 2004-05 report, together with formal minutes, oral and written evidence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-03-27

    The Committee's report examines the issue of how to tackle climate change in an international context, in light of the fact that the UK will hold both the presidency of the EU and the chair of the G8 this year. Topics discussed include: the impact of global warming and emissions forecasts; the EU emissions trading system; the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol; options for a post 2012 framework; and UK government objectives for 2005.

  11. Contribution of the the working group 1 to the fourth evaluation report of the intergovernmental experts group on the climate evolution. Evaluation 2007 of the climatic changes the physical scientifical bases. Abstract for the deciders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-02-01

    This report describes the progresses in the knowledge of the scientifical understand of the natural and human causes of the climatic change. It is based on the GIEC evaluations and the last six years of research with scenario and simulations. (A.L.B.)

  12. Climate change impacts in Northern Canada: Assessing our current knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gill, M.J.; Eamer, J. [Environment Canada, Environmental Conservation Branch, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Munier, A.; Ogden, A. [Yukon College, Northern Climate ExChange, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Duerden, F. [Ryerson University, School of Applied Geography, Toronto, ON (Canada); Hik, D. [Alberta Univ., Dept. of Biological Sciences, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Fox, S.; Riedlinger, D.; Thorpe, N. [GeoNorth Limited, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Johnson, I.; Jensen, M. [Legend Seekers Anthropological Research, Whitehorse, YT (Canada)

    2001-07-01

    A research project by the Northern Climate ExChange at Yukon College, undertaken to bring together into one document all relevant information that will help facilitate the identification of priorities for climate change research, monitoring, technological development and policy development in Canada's North, is described. In addition to the report, project deliverables also include a database of climate change information sources and a database of northern climate change contacts. The review includes scientific, local and Traditional Knowledge sources relating to climate change about each of seventeen natural and human systems (e.g. boreal forests, community health, mining, etc.), synthesized into a table for each system, with projected environmental changes crossed in matrix format with system components. Each cross-relationship was given a ranking; supporting information was included, based on the current state of knowledge of that relationship. In general, current information concerning northern systems, predicted climate changes and the impacts of those changes on northern systems is poor. However, much information does exist and the gap analysis revealed a number of general patterns relating to this information. Clearly, more research is required throughout northern Canada, but in particular, in the eastern Arctic, to provide a greater understanding of the implications of climate changes across the North, and to aid in the development of finer-scale, regional circulation models resulting in better predictive capacity of climate change and its impacts on northern areas.

  13. Assess How Changes in Fuel Cycle Operation Impact Safeguards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tobin, Stephen Joseph [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Nuclear Engineering and Nonproliferation Division; Adigun, Babatunde John [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Nuclear Engineering and Nonproliferation Division; Fugate, Michael Lynn [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Nuclear Engineering and Nonproliferation Division; Trellue, Holly Renee [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Nuclear Engineering and Nonproliferation Division; Sprinkle, James K. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Nuclear Engineering and Nonproliferation Division

    2016-10-31

    Since the beginning of commercial nuclear power generation in the 1960s, the ability of researchers to understand and control the isotopic content of spent fuel has improved. It is therefore not surprising that both fuel assembly design and fuel assembly irradiation optimization have improved over the past 50+ years. It is anticipated that the burnup and isotopics of the spent fuel should exhibit less variation over the decades as reactor operators irradiate each assembly to the optimum amount. In contrast, older spent fuel is anticipated to vary more in burnup and resulting isotopics for a given initial enrichment. Modern fuel therefore should be more uniform in composition, and thus, measured safeguards results should be easier to interpret than results from older spent fuel. With spent fuel ponds filling up, interim and long-­term storage of spent fuel will need to be addressed. Additionally after long periods of storage, spent fuel is no longer self-­protecting and, as such, the IAEA will categorize it as more attractive; in approximately 20 years many of the assemblies from early commercial cores will no longer be considered self-­protecting. This study will assess how more recent changes in the reactor operation could impact the interpretation of safeguards measurements. The status quo for spent fuel assay in the safeguards context is that the overwhelming majority of spent fuel assemblies are not measured in a quantitative way except for those assemblies about to be loaded into a difficult or impossible to access location (dry storage or, in the future, a repository). In other words, when the assembly is still accessible to a state actor, or an insider, when it is cooling in a pool, the inspectorate does not have a measurement database that could assist them in re-­verifying the integrity of that assembly. The spent fuel safeguards regime would be strengthened if spent fuel assemblies were measured from discharge to loading into a difficult or impossible

  14. Wildlife as biological indicators for assessing impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diamond, A.W.

    1990-01-01

    Estimates of the impacts of climate change on wildlife are necessarily constrained by knowledge of the effects of climate on wildlife. A review is presented of the better-known impacts of climate on wildlife, examining their utility as ecological indicators. The most obvious feature of any species is its geographic distribution, or range. Climate may affect distribution indirectly through effects on habitat, directly through physiological effects, or most probably, through both. Impacts can include changes in distribution of habitat, changes in distribution of species, and changes in migration routes. Direct effects of climate include timing and success of breeding, timing and success of migration, winter survival, and extreme events. Distribution changes are powerful integrators of ecosystem-level events, but poor indicators of particular changes. Changes in the timing of migration, and the phenology of breeding, are more directly determined by weather events and hence will be better indicators of changing climate. Detailed knowledge of effects of climate on timing and success of breeding is available for only a few species, and has not been carefully synthesized with a view to using such variables as climatic indicators. Temperature maxima and minima, frost-free and degree days, and estimates of precipitation on finer scales, both temporal and geographic, are needed to predict the effects of climate change on wildlife. 48 refs

  15. Leading Formative Assessment Change: A 3-Phase Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Northwest Evaluation Association, 2016

    2016-01-01

    If you are seeking greater student engagement and growth, you need to integrate high-impact formative assessment practices into daily instruction. Read the final article in our five-part series to find advice aimed at leaders determined to bring classroom formative assessment practices district wide. Learn: (1) what you MUST consider when…

  16. Educational Quality, Outcomes Assessment, and Policy Change: The Virginia Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culver, Steve

    2010-01-01

    The higher education system in the Commonwealth of Virginia in the United States provides a case model for how discussions regarding educational quality and assessment of that quality have affected institutions' policy decisions and implementation. Using Levin's (1998) policy analysis framework, this essay explores how assessment of student…

  17. Damage assessment in structure from changes in static parameter ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    damage assessment methodology will be a valuable tool in timely ... of the numerical model to the physical system are prerequisites for success. Wu et al ... The objective of the present paper is to locate and assess the damage occurring at any posi- ... This method leads to the recent very popular neural network learning.

  18. Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is likely to affect the water cycle by influencing the precipitation patterns. It is important to integrate the anticipated changes into the design of urban drainage in response to the increased risk level in cities. This paper presents a pluvial flood risk assessment framework...... to identify and assess adaptation options in the urban context. An integrated approach is adopted by incorporating climate change impact assessment, flood inundation modeling, economic tool, and risk assessment, hereby developing a step-by-step process for cost-benefit assessment of climate change adaptation...

  19. Assessing Climate Change Education on a Midwestern College Campus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wodika, Alicia; Schoof, Justin

    2017-01-01

    Multiple disciplines address climate change; however, despite statements of consensus from professional societies, it is unclear whether the correct information is being conveyed to students. The purpose of this study was to survey student's (n = 264) knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors behind climate science and climate change related principles.…

  20. Human-induced climate change: an interdisciplinary assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Schlesinger, M; Kheshgi, H; Smith, J; de la Chesnaye, F.C; Reilly, J. M; Wilson, T; Kolstad, C

    2007-01-01

    ... of climate sensitivity and change. The next part of the book surveys estimates of the impacts of climate change for different sectors and regions, describes recent studies for individual sectors, and examines how this research might be used in the policy process. The third part examines current topics related to mitigation of greenhouse gase...

  1. Assessing climate change impacts on water balance in the Mount ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    watershed system which can be used in mitigating the effects of climate change. 1. Introduction ... have accelerated the increase of greenhouse gases. (carbon ..... In effect, the BROOK90 model was repeatedly operated using final parameter sets with assumptions that the entire area would not significantly change before the ...

  2. Uncertainties in Agricultural Impact Assessments of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Montesino San Martin, Manuel

    Future food security will be challenged by the likely increase in demand, changes in consumption patterns and the effects of climate change. Framing food availability requires adequate agricultural production planning. Decision-making can benefit from improved understanding of the uncertainties...

  3. Assessment of Climate Change Adaptive Strategies in Small ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Animals are intrinsically dependent on the environment, and any fluctuations in weather and climate can affect them through water and land changes, such as desertification, feed and water availability. Climate change will not only impact the health and welfare of animals, but also the more than a billion people who depend ...

  4. The Future at Work. An Assessment of Changing Workplace Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Interstate Conference of Employment Security Agencies, Inc., Washington, DC.

    Technological and demographic changes affect the nation's employment landscape. The most consistent trend of the century has been the shrinking workweek. By the year 2000, many workers will spend only 32 hours per week at work. Other workplace changes will continue the quest for more work satisfaction: technical trends (flextime/telecommuting);…

  5. An assessment of impacts of climate change on available water ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Water is the first sector to be affected by changes in climate. The prediction is that with climate change, the climate will be more variable with more intense storms which will increase the risks of flooding and droughts. Attaining and sustaining water security will therefore be more challenging than it has been up to now.

  6. Assessing climate change awareness influence on Egyptian children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sherine El Sakka

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Climate change (CCH is one of the important issues raised globally lately. heat, humidity pollution could harm children, cause diseases and death,85 % of the world’s youth live in the de-veloping countries, and Egypt as one of the developing countries its children face a great risk spe-cially with the presence of weak climate change awareness impact. Our research will investigate Egypt climate change awareness (CCA problem and how it affects Egyptian children, we will try to explore children problems (CHP, due to limited climate change awareness and conclude by emphasizing the importance of having appropriate solution; in term of avoiding negative climate change impact (CCHI on children in the future.

  7. Advanced energy technologies and climate change: An analysis using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edmonds, J.; Wise, M.; MacCracken, C.

    1994-01-01

    The authors report results from a ''top down'' energy-economy model employing ''bottom up'' assumptions and embedded in an integrated assessment framework, GCAM. The analysis shows that, from the perspective of long-term energy system development, differences in results from the ''top down'' and ''bottom up'' research communities would appear to be more closely linked to differences in assumptions regarding the economic cost associated with advanced technologies than to differences in modeling approach. The adoption of assumptions regarding advanced energy technologies were shown to have a profound effect on the future rate of anthropogenic climate change. The cumulative effect of the five sets of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv, the point at which atmospheric concentrations are double those that existed in the middle of the eighteenth century. The consideration of all greenhouse gases, and in particular sulfur, leads to some extremely interesting results that the rapid deployment of advanced energy technologies leads to higher temperatures prior to 2050 than in the reference case. This is due to the fact that the advanced energy technologies reduce sulfur emissions as well as those of carbon. The short-term cooling impact of sulfur dominates the long-term warming impact of CO 2 and CH 4 . While all energy technologies play roles, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology plays a particularly important role. 16 refs., 12 figs., 3 tabs

  8. The "fourth dimension" of gene transcription.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Malley, Bert W

    2009-05-01

    The three dimensions of space provide our relationship to position on the earth, but the fourth dimension of time has an equally profound influence on our lives. Everything from light and sound to weather and biology operate on the principle of measurable temporal periodicity. Consequently, a wide variety of time clocks affect all aspects of our existence. The annual (and biannual) cycles of activity, metabolism, and mating, the monthly physiological clocks of women and men, and the 24-h diurnal rhythms of humans are prime examples. Should it be surprising to us that the fourth dimension also impinges upon gene expression and that the genome itself is regulated by the fastest running of all biological clocks? Recent evidence substantiates the existence of such a ubiquitin-dependent transcriptional clock that is based upon the activation and destruction of transcriptional coactivators.

  9. Horizon thermodynamics in fourth-order gravity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng-Sen Ma

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of horizon thermodynamics, the field equations of Einstein gravity and some other second-order gravities can be rewritten as the thermodynamic identity: dE=TdS−PdV. However, in order to construct the horizon thermodynamics in higher-order gravity, we have to simplify the field equations firstly. In this paper, we study the fourth-order gravity and convert it to second-order gravity via a so-called “Legendre transformation” at the cost of introducing two other fields besides the metric field. With this simplified theory, we implement the conventional procedure in the construction of the horizon thermodynamics in 3 and 4 dimensional spacetime. We find that the field equations in the fourth-order gravity can also be written as the thermodynamic identity. Moreover, we can use this approach to derive the same black hole mass as that by other methods.

  10. Patronage and clientelism in the fourth gospel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abiola Mbamalu

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Patronage and clientelism as a social-scientific model is used in this article to read the fourth gospel. It is the contention of the article that this model affords the reader fresh vistas of meaning that otherwise would have remained unexplored. It is a reading amongst other readings and does not make pretensions to illuminate every segment of the fourth gospel. Rather, it selectively looks at areas where reading against the backdrop of a patron-client model illuminates the text. This reading sheds light on the greatest gift Jesus came to give, the gift of life as a beneficium, and affirms that the signs that Jesus performed are commendationes. Jesus brokers the blessings of the kingdom to those who believe in him on behalf of the father who is the ultimate patron. Jesus also challenges popular notions of patronage by performing acts reserved for slaves by, for example, washing the feet of his disciples.

  11. Arctic Climate and Climate Change with a Focus on Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stendel, Martin; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Petersen, Dorthe

    2008-01-01

    Paleoclimatic evidence suggests that the Arctic presently is warmer than during the last 125,000 years, and it is very likely11The term "likelihood" is used here as in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). According to the definition in this rep...... Ice Sheet, the fate of arctic sea ice and a possible weakening of the thermohaline circulation (THC) under future warming conditions have led to increased research activities, including an assessment of arctic climate and climate change (ACIA, 2005), the fourth assessment report (AR4...

  12. Assessing Ecological Impacts According to Land Use Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, S.; Lee, D. K.; Jeong, W.; Jeong, S. G.; Jin, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Land use patterns have changed by human activities, and it has affected the structure and dynamics of ecosystems. In particular, the conversion of forests into other land use has caused environmental degradation and loss of biodiversity. The evaluation of species and their habitat can be preferentially considered to prevent or minimize the adverse effects of land use change. The objective of study is identifying the impacts of environmental conditions on forest ecosystems by comparing ecological changes with time series spatial data. Species distribution models were developed for diverse species with presence data and time-series environmental variables, which allowed comparison of the habitat suitability and connectivity. Habitat suitability and connectivity were used to estimate impacts of forest ecosystems due to land use change. Our result suggested that the size and degree of ecological impacts are were different depending on the properties of land use change. The elements and species were greatly affected by the land use change according to the results. This study suggested that a methodology for measuring the interference of land use change in species habitat and connectivity. Furthermore, it will help to conserve and manage forest by identifying priority conservation areas with influence factor and scale.

  13. Flavour democracy calls for the fourth generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Datta, A.

    1992-07-01

    It is argued with the help of an illustrative mode, that the inter species hierarchy among the fermion masses and the quark mixing angles can be accommodated naturally in the standard model with (approximate) flavour democracy provided there are four families of sequential quark-leptons with all members of the fourth family having roughly equal masses. The special problem of light neutrino masses (if any) and possible solutions are also discussed. (author). 15 refs

  14. Fourth international conference on Networks & Communications

    CERN Document Server

    Meghanathan, Natarajan; Nagamalai, Dhinaharan; Computer Networks & Communications (NetCom)

    2013-01-01

    Computer Networks & Communications (NetCom) is the proceedings from the Fourth International Conference on Networks & Communications. This book covers theory, methodology and applications of computer networks, network protocols and wireless networks, data communication technologies, and network security. The proceedings will feature peer-reviewed papers that illustrate research results, projects, surveys and industrial experiences that describe significant advances in the diverse areas of computer networks & communications.

  15. Vulnerability Assessment, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Measures in Slovenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cegnar, T.

    2010-09-01

    In relation to the priority tasks of the climate change measures, the Republic of Slovenia estimates that special attention needs to be devoted to the following sectors in general: - sectors that currently indicate a strong vulnerability for the current climate variability (for instance, agriculture), - sectors where the vulnerability for climate change is increased by current trends (for instance, urban development, use of space), - sectors where the adaptation time is the longest and the subsequent development changes are connected with the highest costs (for instance, use of space, infrastructural objects, forestry, urban development, building stock). Considering the views of Slovenia to the climate change problem in Europe and Slovenia, priority measures and emphasis on future adaptation to climate change, the Republic of Slovenia has especially exposed the following action areas: - sustainable and integrated management of water sources for water power production, prevention of floods, provision of water for the enrichment of low flow rates, and preservation of environmental function as well as provision of water for other needs; - sustainable management of forest ecosystems, adjusted to changes, for the provision of their environmental function as well as being a source of biomass, wood for products for the conservation of carbon, and carbon sinks; - spatial planning as one of the important preventive instruments for the adaptation to climate change through the processes of integral planning of spatial and urban development; - sustainable use and preservation of natural wealth and the preservation of biodiversity as well as ecosystem services with measures and policies that enable an enhanced resistance of ecosystems to climate change, and the role of biological diversity in integral adaptation measures; - informing and awareness on the consequences of climate change and adaptation possibilities. For years, the most endangered sectors have been agriculture and

  16. Assessing climate change impacts on wheat production (a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Valizadeh

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is one of the major challenges facing humanity in the future and effect of climate change has been detrimental to agricultural industry. The aim of this study was to simulate the effects of climate change on the maturity period, leaf area index (LAI, biomass and grain yield of wheat under future climate change for the Sistan and Baluchestan region in Iran. For this purpose, two general circulation models HadCM3 and IPCM4 under three scenarios A1B, B1 and A2 in three time periods 2020, 2050 and 2080 were used. LARS-WG model was used for simulating climatic parameters for each period and CERES-Wheat model was used to simulate wheat growth. The results of model evaluation showed that LARS-WG had appropriate prediction for climatic parameters and simulation of stochastic growing season in future climate change conditions for the studied region. Wheat growing season period in all scenarios of climate change was reduced compared to the current situation. Possible reasons were the increase in temperature rate and the accelerated growth stages of wheat. This reduction in B1 scenario was less than A1B and A2 scenarios. Maximum wheat LAI in all scenarios, except scenario A1B in 2050, is decreased compared to the current situation. Yield and biological yield of wheat in both general circulation models under all scenarios and all times were reduced in comparison with current conditions and the lowest reduction was related to B1 scenario. In general, the results showed that wheat production in the future will be affected by climate change and will decrease in the studied region. To reduce these risks, the impact of climate change mitigation strategies and management systems for crop adaptation to climate change conditions should be considered.

  17. Forestal measures against climate change. Review and status after the Fourth Conference of the Parties of the Climate Convention; Skogtiltak mot klimaendringer. Oversikt og status etter fjerde partskonferanse til Klimakonvensjonen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Naess, Lars Otto

    1999-08-01

    The Kyoto Protocol of December 1997 opens up the possibility that forestal measures can be used to meet parts of the commitments of the industrialized countries to achieve a net reduction of emission of climate gases. The present report summarizes the issues involved in forestal measures that will mitigate global climate changes. The emphasis is on forestal measures in the climate negotiations and technical carbon binding potential. There is also a brief review of economic, environmental and social aspects. The next decades will be crucial to the many of the world`s forests. The forests contain a large part of the biological diversity. Above all this is true of tropical forests. But untouched areas in tempered and boreal areas are also experiencing various types of threats, including the effects of a possible global heating. It is a main conclusion that, in spite of many complex challenges, climate measures in the forests may play a constructive role both in counteracting global climate changes and in improving the management of the world`s forest resources. 89 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs.

  18. An Assessment of Changes in the Magnesium Level During ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mubeen

    acid synthesis.[2,4-6] It is also ... stimulate sodium-potassium ATPase at low concentrations ... and muscle activity after major abdominal surgeries. .... respiratory rate, and temperature) was assessed by Pearson .... and protein reduction.

  19. Art meets mathematics in the fourth dimension

    CERN Document Server

    Lipscomb, Stephen Leon

    2014-01-01

    To see objects that live in the fourth dimension we humans would need to add a fourth dimension to our three-dimensional vision. An example of such an object that lives in the fourth dimension is a hyper-sphere or “3-sphere”. The quest to imagine the elusive 3-sphere has deep historical roots: medieval poet Dante Alighieri, in his circa 1300 AD Divine Comedy, used a 3-sphere to convey his allegorical vision of the Christian afterlife. In 1917, Albert Einstein visualized the universe, at each instant in time, as a 3-sphere. He described his representation as “…the place where the reader’s imagination boggles. Nobody can imagine this thing.” Over time, however, our understanding of the concept of dimension evolved. By 2003, a researcher had successfully rendered into human vision the structure of a 4-web (think of an every increasingly-dense spider’s web). In this text Stephen Lipscomb takes his innovative dimension theory research a step further, using the 4-web to reveal a new partial image of a...

  20. Fourth-rank gravity and cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marrakchi, A.L.; Tapia, V.

    1992-07-01

    We consider the consequences of describing the metric properties of space-time through a quartic line element. The associated ''metric'' is a fourth-rank tensor G μυλπ . In order to recover a Riemannian behaviour of the geometry it is necessary to have G μυλπ = g (μυ g λπ) . We construct a theory for the gravitational field based on the fourth-rank metric G μυλπ . In the absence of matter the fourth-rank metric becomes separable and the theory coincides with General Relativity. In the presence of matter we can maintain Riemmanianicity, but now gravitation couples, as compared to General Relativity, in a different way to matter. We develop a simple cosmological model based on a FRW metric with matter described by a perfect fluid. For the present time the field equations are compatible with k OBS = O and Ω OBS t CLAS approx. 10 20 t PLANCK approx. 10 -23 s. Our final and most important result is the fact that the entropy is an increasing function of time. When interpreted at the light of General Relativity the treatment is shown to be almost equivalent to that of the standard model of cosmology combined with the inflationary scenario. (author). 16 refs, 1 fig

  1. Telling time in the Fourth Gospel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerome H. Neyrey

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available When we begin the task of telling time in the Fourth Gospel, we bring something not found in any previous study, namely, a model of time articulated by cross- ultural anthropologists (Bordieu, in Pitt-Rivers 1963:55-72, Ayoade, in Wright 1984:71-89. As much as we admire Davies’ study, she has no notes to her chapter on time nor any citations in her bibliography to indicate that she has any conversation partners, much less cultural experts, a deficit to be filled in this study. Learning to tell time entails three theoretical considerations: a definition of time, key classifications of it, and special attention to what the ancients meant by past, present and future. With these lenses we are prepared to do as thorough a study as we can on telling time in the Fourth Gospel. As we consider each classification, we will suggest a brief meaning of it from the experts on time, then present a body of Greco-Roman materials illustrative of the classification, and finally use it to gather and interpret data in John. Proving the native existence of these classifications for telling time in antiquity is essential for readers to have a background against which to compare their usage with that of the Fourth Gospel.

  2. Assessing Perceptions of Climate Variability and Change among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... data with the subjective recall and memory of change in climate from respondents. ... Also that rainfall data presented in this study represent a broad picture for the ... Key Words: Seasonality, rainfall pattern fluctuations, subsistence farmers, ...

  3. Assessment of coastal governance for climate change adaptation in Kenya

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ojwang, L

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available of actors, including local governments close to people and their activities affected by climate change. Functioning ICM also offers opportunities for reducing risks and building resilience. This article applied a modified capitals approach framework (CAF...

  4. Assessment of river plan changes in Terengganu River using RS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Journal of Fundamental and Applied Sciences ... The database can help in the appropriate understanding of river plan change and know ... The data collected from Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) database.

  5. RECOVERY ACT - Methods for Decision under Technological Change Uncertainty and Risk Assessment for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Webster, Mort D. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Energy and Mineral Engineering

    2015-11-30

    This report presents the final outcomes and products of the project as performed both at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and subsequently at Pennsylvania State University. The research project can be divided into three main components: methodology development for decision-making under uncertainty, improving the resolution of the electricity sector to improve integrated assessment, and application of these methods to integrated assessment.

  6. RECOVERY ACT - Methods for Decision under Technological Change Uncertainty and Risk Assessment for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Webster, Mort David [MIT

    2015-03-10

    This report presents the final outcomes and products of the project as performed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The research project consists of three main components: methodology development for decision-making under uncertainty, improving the resolution of the electricity sector to improve integrated assessment, and application of these methods to integrated assessment. Results in each area is described in the report.

  7. Managing fish and wildlife habitat in the face of climate change: USDA Forest Service perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory D. Hayward; Curtis H. Flather; Erin Uloth; Hugh D. Safford; David A. Cleaves

    2009-01-01

    The spatial and temporal scope of environmental change anticipated during the next century as a result of climate change presents unprecedented challenges for fish and wildlife management. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC 2007) suggested impacts from climate change on natural systems will be more grave than earlier...

  8. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices (2011 Final)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has released the final report titled, Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices. This report was prepared by the National Center for Environmental Assessment's Global Climate Research Staff in the Office of Research and D...

  9. The Role of Learner-Centred Assessment in Postsecondary Organisational Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webber, Karen L.; Tschepikow, Kyle

    2013-01-01

    For postsecondary institutions, organisational change is an inevitable and ongoing process. Institutions face a growing need to assess student learning assessment as part of an institution's comprehensive assessment plan. While a growing body of literature suggests that learner-centred assessment is a best practice in higher education pedagogy, it…

  10. Assessing the impact of climatic change in cold regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parry, M L; Carter, T R [eds.

    1984-01-01

    The report describes the use of models to predict the consequences of global warming in particular (cold) regions. The workshop focused on two related issues: (a) the current sensitivity of ecosystems and farming systems to climatic variability, and (b) the range of impacts likely for certain changes of climate. This report addresses four broad themes: (1) the nature of the research problem; (2) methods of evaluating sensitivity to climatic variability; (3) methods of measuring the impact of climate change; and (4) how these methods might be refined. (ACR)

  11. Hypoglycemia-Related Electroencephalogram Changes Assessed by Multiscale Entropy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fabris, C.; Sparacino, G.; Sejling, A. S.

    2014-01-01

    derivation in the two glycemic intervals was assessed using the multiscale entropy (MSE) approach, obtaining measures of sample entropy (SampEn) at various temporal scales. The comparison of how signal irregularity measured by SampEn varies as the temporal scale increases in the two glycemic states provides...

  12. Quality Assured Assessment Processes: Evaluating Staff Response to Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malau-Aduli, Bunmi S.; Zimitat, Craig; Malau-Aduli, Aduli E. O.

    2011-01-01

    Medical education is not exempt from the increasing societal expectations of accountability and this is evidenced by an increasing number of litigation cases by students who are dissatisfied with their assessment. The time and monetary costs of student appeals makes it imperative that medical schools adopt robust quality assured assessment…

  13. Solving Variable Coefficient Fourth-Order Parabolic Equation by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Solving Variable Coefficient Fourth-Order Parabolic Equation by Modified initial guess Variational ... variable coefficient fourth order parabolic partial differential equations. The new method shows rapid convergence to the exact solution.

  14. Predictive Power of the Test of Everyday Attention for Children (TEA-CH) on Various Methods of Reading Comprehension Assessment among Low-Income Fourth Grade Children of Color

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vavassoeur, Lether Christine

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this dissertation was to investigate the extent to which the Test of Everyday Attention for Children (TEA-Ch) in isolation and in combination with parent ratings of inattention predicted performance on reading comprehension assessments presented in various formats (question and answer, cloze, and recall) among a non-clinical sample…

  15. Assessment of landscape change and occurrence at watershed ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... the southern watershed zones. Monitoring land cover change at the watershed scale is more indicative of impact level and where efforts for managing and conserving the urban landscape should be prioritized. Key words: Urban expansion, land cover type, remote sensing, watershed units, urban landscape conservation.

  16. Climate change impact assessment and adaptation under uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wardekker, J.A.

    2011-01-01

    Expected impacts of climate change are associated with large uncertainties, particularly at the local level. Adaptation scientists, practitioners, and decision-makers will need to find ways to cope with these uncertainties. Several approaches have been suggested as ‘uncertainty-proof’ to some

  17. Getting Skills Right: Assessing and Anticipating Changing Skill Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    OECD Publishing, 2016

    2016-01-01

    Digitalisation, globalisation, demographic shifts and other changes in work organisation are constantly reshaping skill needs. This can lead to persistent skill shortages and mismatch which are costly for individuals, firms and society in terms of lost wages and lower productivity and growth. These costs can be reduced through better assessment…

  18. geographic information systems for assessment of climate change

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ACSS

    We examined the spatial implications of climate change on areas suitable for teff, and ... Based on the current area under teff in Ethiopia, this equals an overall reduction in .... differing greenhouse gas emission scenarios, ..... Water availability .... CO2 effects, and agricultural management systems. All these contribute to ...

  19. Assessing debris flow activity in a changing climate : open access

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Turkington, T.; Remaitre, A.; Ettema, J.; Hussin, H.Y.; van Westen, C.J.

    2016-01-01

    Future trends in debris flow activity are constructed based on bias-corrected climate change projections using two meteorological proxies: daily precipitation and Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) combined with specific humidity for two Alpine areas. Along with a comparison between

  20. Assessment of climate change impacts on rainfall using large scale

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this model, using the outputs from GCM, the rainfall of Zayandehrood dam is projected under two climate change scenarios. Most effective variables have been identified among 26 predictor variables. Comparison of the results of the two models shows that the developed SVM model has lesser errors in monthly rainfall ...

  1. Assessing the Agricultural Vulnerability for India under Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Tarul; Vardhan Murari, Harsha; Karmakar, Subhankar; Ghosh, Subimal; Singh, Jitendra

    2016-04-01

    Global climate change has proven to show majorly negative impacts for the far future. These negative impacts adversely affect almost all the fields including agriculture, water resources, tourism, and marine ecosystem. Among these, the effects on agriculture are considered to be of prime importance since its regional impacts can directly affect the global food security. Under such lines, it becomes essential to understand how climate change directs agricultural production for a region along with its vulnerability. In India, rice and wheat are considered as major staple diet and hence understanding its production loss/gain due to regional vulnerability to climate change becomes necessary. Here, an attempt has been made to understand the agricultural vulnerability for rice and wheat, considering yield as a function of temperature and precipitation during growing period. In order to accomplish this objective, the ratio of actual to potential evapo-transpiration has been considered which serves as a reliable indicator; with more this ratio towards unity, less vulnerable will be the region. The current objective needs an integration of climatic, hydrological and agricultural parameters; that can be achieved by simulating a climate data driven hydrologic (Variable Infiltration Capacity, VIC) model and a crop (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, DSSAT) model. The proposed framework is an attempt to derive a crop vulnerability map that can facilitate in strategizing adaption practices which can reduce the adverse impacts of climate change in future.

  2. Assessing ExxonMobil's Climate Change Communications (1977-2014)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Supran, G.; Oreskes, N.

    2017-12-01

    Coal, oil, and gas companies have operated - and continue to operate - across myriad facets of the climate problem: scientific, political, and public. Efforts to engage the fossil fuel industry in addressing climate change should therefore be informed by this broad historical context. In this paper, we present an empirical document-by-document textual content analysis and comparison of 187 diverse climate change communications from ExxonMobil spanning 1977 to 2014, including peer-reviewed and non-peer-reviewed publications, internal company documents, and paid, editorial-style advertisements ("advertorials") in The New York Times. We examine whether these communications sent consistent messages about the state of climate science and its implications - specifically, we compare their positions on climate change as real, human-caused, serious, and solvable. In all four cases, we find that as documents become more publicly accessible, they increasingly communicate doubt. That is, ExxonMobil contributed to advancing climate science - by way of its scientists' academic publications - but promoted doubt about it in advertorials. Our findings shed light on one oil and gas company's multivalent strategic responses to climate change. They offer a cautionary tale against myopic engagement with the fossil fuel industry, demonstrating the importance of evaluating the full spectrum of a company's claims and activities.

  3. Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schewe, Jacob; Heinke, Jens; Gerten, Dieter; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Arnell, Nigel W; Clark, Douglas B; Dankers, Rutger; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs M; Colón-González, Felipe J; Gosling, Simon N; Kim, Hyungjun; Liu, Xingcai; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Portmann, Felix T; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik; Albrecht, Torsten; Frieler, Katja; Piontek, Franziska; Warszawski, Lila; Kabat, Pavel

    2014-03-04

    Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.

  4. Changes in risk factors during adolescence: implications for risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Put, C.E.; Deković, M.; Stams, G.J.J.M.; van der Laan, P.H.; Hoeve, M.; van Amelsfort, L.

    2011-01-01

    This study examined to what extent the significance of both static and dynamic risk factors for recidivism changes in the course of adolescence. For this purpose, file and interview data of 1,396 juveniles charged with a criminal offense were analyzed. This study showed that the impact of almost all

  5. Using slides to test for changes in crown defoliation assessment methods. Part I: Visual assessment of slides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobbertin, Matthias; Hug, Christian; Mizoue, Nobuya

    2004-11-01

    In this study we used photographs of tree crowns to test whether the assessment methods for tree defoliation in Switzerland have changed over time. We randomly selected 24 series of slides of Norway spruce with field assessments made between 1986 and 1995. The slides were randomly arranged and assessed by three experts without prior knowledge of the year when the slide was taken or the tree number. Defoliation was assessed using the Swiss reference photo guide. Although the correlations between the field assessments and slide assessments were high (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient ranged between 0.79 and 0.83), we found significant differences between field and slide assessments (4.3 to 9% underprediction by the slide assessors) and between the slide assessments. However, no significant trends in field assessment methods could be detected. When the mean differences between field and slide assessments were subtracted, in some years, field assessors consistently underpredicted (1990, 1992) or overpredicted defoliation (1987, 1991). Defoliation tended to be overpredicted in slides taken against the light, and underpredicted for trees with more than 25% crown overlap. We conclude that slide series can be used to detect changes in assessment methods. However, potential observer bias calls for more objective methods of assessment.

  6. Anorexia: an early sign of fourth ventricle astrocytoma in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leroy, Henri-Arthur; Baroncini, Marc; Delestret, Isabelle; Florent, Vincent; Vinchon, Matthieu

    2014-12-01

    Paediatric low-grade astrocytomas of the fourth ventricle are rare tumours, generally revealed by hydrocephalus. However, some patients present with a history of severe anorexia. It might be a harbinger, which if recognized, could lead to earlier diagnosis. We decided to examine our database in order to evaluate the incidence and signification of anorexia in this context. Retrospective monocentric study of cases of low-grade astrocytomas of the fourth ventricle operated between 1991 and 2012 in our paediatric neurosurgery department. We particularly observed the clinical presentation and long-term clinical, oncological and radiological evolution. Non-parametrical tests were used (Mann-Whitney, Fisher). We reviewed 34 cases, 31 pilocytic astrocytomas and 3 diffuse astrocytomas, 16 boys and 18 girls, (M/F ratio 0.89). Mean age at diagnosis was 8 years old. Seven presented with notable anorexia, the average BMI in this group was ≤2 standard deviation (SD); with clinical signs evolving for 11.5 months. Twenty-seven children had no anorexia; average BMI in this group was +1 SD, with clinical evolution for 6 months on an average of p anorexia, body mass index improved markedly in the postoperative follow-up, which lasted, on average, for 6 years. Anorexia with stunted body weight curve is a non-exceptional presentation in children with low-grade astrocytomas of the fourth ventricle. Unexplained or atypical anorexia with negative etiologic assessment should prompt cerebral imaging. Clinical improvement after surgical resection, could suggest a possible interaction between tumour tissue and appetite-suppressing peptide secretion.

  7. Lengthening of fourth brachymetatarsia by three different surgical techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, W-C; Yoo, J H; Moon, J-S

    2009-11-01

    We carried out a retrospective study to assess the clinical results of lengthening the fourth metatarsal in brachymetatarsia in 153 feet of 106 patients (100 female, six males) using three different surgical techniques. In one group lengthening was performed by one-stage intercalary bone grafting secured by an intramedullary Kirschner-wire (45 feet, 35 patients). In the second group lengthening was obtained gradually using a mini-external fixator after performing an osteotomy with a saw (59 feet, 39 patients) and in the third group lengthening was achieved in a gradual manner using a mini-external fixator after undertaking an osteotomy using osteotome through pre-drilled holes (49 feet, 32 patients). The mean age of the patients was 26.3 years (13 to 48). Pre-operatively, the fourth ray of the bone-graft group was longer than that of other two groups (p lengthening in the bone-graft group was 13.9 mm (3.5 to 23.0, 27.1%) which was less than that obtained in the saw group with a mean of 17.8 mm (7.0 to 33.0, 29.9%) and in the pre-drilled osteotome group with a mean of 16.8 mm (6.5 to 28.0, 29.4%, p = 0.001). However, the mean time required for retention of the fixation in the bone-graft group was the shortest of the three groups. Patients were dissatisfied with the result for five feet (11.1%) in the bone-graft group, eight (13.6%) in the saw group and none in the pre-drilled osteotomy group (p lengthening by distraction osteogenesis after osteotomy using an osteotome produces the most reliable results for the treatment of fourth brachymetatarsia.

  8. 7 CFR 51.2296 - Three-fourths half kernel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Three-fourths half kernel. 51.2296 Section 51.2296 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards...-fourths half kernel. Three-fourths half kernel means a portion of a half of a kernel which has more than...

  9. Assessing Change in High School Student Information Literacy Using the Tool for Real-Time Assessment of Information Literacy Skills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovalik, Cindy L.; Yutzey, Susan D.; Piazza, Laura M.

    2012-01-01

    Change in high school student information literacy (IL) knowledge and skills, from freshman year to senior year in high school was the focus of this quasi-experimental research project. Researchers used a free information literacy skills assessment tool entitled TRAILS (Tool for Real-time Assessment of Information Literacy Skills) to measure…

  10. Change in adult self-esteem: a longitudinal assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schafer, R B; Keith, P M

    1999-09-01

    This is a longitudinal investigation of self-esteem change in an adult population. The analysis addresses two limitations in earlier studies: the use of convenience samples of children and adolescents, and cross-sectional or short-duration longitudinal studies of self-esteem change. Participants are 97 randomly selected married couples interviewed at two points in time separated by 13 years. Two components of the self were measured: self-esteem and reflected appraisals (perception of others' evaluation). Contrary to previous research on self-esteem change, a significant decline was found in all components of the self for both husbands and wives. The decline in self-esteem was not a function of age, education or income. The decline was more likely to occur for high, rather than low, self-esteem participants. This finding is attributed to the demands on higher self-esteem participants to maintain or enhance self-esteem and the caution of low self-esteem participants to engage in behaviours that would threaten the self.

  11. Geometry, relativity and the fourth dimension

    CERN Document Server

    Rucker, Rudolf

    1977-01-01

    This is a highly readable, popular exposition of the fourth dimension and the structure of the universe. A remarkable pictorial discussion of the curved space-time we call home, it achieves even greater impact through the use of 141 excellent illustrations. This is the first sustained visual account of many important topics in relativity theory that up till now have only been treated separately.Finding a perfect analogy in the situation of the geometrical characters in Flatland, Professor Rucker continues the adventures of the two-dimensional world visited by a three-dimensional being to expl

  12. Analiticity in fourth-order wave equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bollini, C.G.; Giambiagi, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    In this paper it is presented, through a familiar example (δ-function potential in one dimension), the analytic properties of Jost functions associated with fourth-order equations. It is shown how to construct the Jost functions and the two discontinuity matrices associated with the line of singularities. The latter divide the complex k-plane in eight regions of analiticity. One of these matrices is related to the asymptotic behaviour of the scattering state. The other is not. Both are necessary to solve the inverse problem. Besides the usual poles related to bound states there are also other poles associated with total reflexion

  13. Motion in fourth-rank gravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tapia, V.

    1992-04-01

    Recently we have explored the consequences of describing the metric properties of our universe through a quartic line element. In this geometry the natural object is a fourth-rank metric, i.e., a tensor with four indices. Based on this geometry we constructed a simple field theory for the gravitational field. The field equations coincide with the Einstein field equations in the vacuum case. This fact, however, does not guarantee the observational equivalence of both theories since one must still verify that, as a consequence of the field equations, test particles move along geodesics. This letter is aimed at establishing this result. (author). 7 refs

  14. Fourth international seminar on horizontal steam generators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tuomisto, H. [ed.] [IVO Group, Vantaa (Finland); Purhonen, H. [ed.] [VTT, Espoo (Finland); Kouhia, V. [ed.] [Lappeenranta Univ. of Technology (Finland)

    1997-12-31

    The general objective of the International Seminars of Horizontal Steam Generator Modelling has been the improvement in understanding of realistic thermal hydraulic behaviour of the generators when performing safety analyses for VVER reactors. The main topics presented in the fourth seminar were: thermal hydraulic experiments and analyses, primary collector integrity, feedwater distributor replacement, management of primary-to-secondary leakage accidents and new developments in the VVER safety technology. The number of participants, representing designers and manufacturers of the horizontal steam generators, plant operators, engineering companies, research organizations, universities and regulatory authorities, was 70 from 10 countries.

  15. The fourth pattern of attachment: Disorganized / disoriented

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zlatka Cugmas

    2003-09-01

    Full Text Available On the basis of the study of recent scientific literature about the development of attachment behavior, the author answers the following questions about: the behavior children categorized as Disorganized/disorientated or Controlling in the procedure of the Strange situation; the life circumstances, in which these children live; the reasons for lack of balanced strategies of attachment and characteristics of their general manner of adaptation. The author finds the characteristics of the mothers' (insensitivity to be significantly influential for the emergence of the fourth pattern of attachment. These children are heterogeneous regarding adaptation in general. Professional help preceding negative consequences for their socioemotional development is neccesary.

  16. Search for fourth generation neutral heavy leptons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abachi, S.; Abbott, B.; Abolins, M.

    1995-07-01

    A search for fourth generation neutral heavy leptons (ν 4 ) in W decays was carried out the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron at √ bar s = 1.8 TeV. The ν 4 is assumed to be produced via mixing with the first generation neutrino only. We looked for a three electron final state event topology. The data used in this analysis represent 12.2 pb -1 taken during the 1992--1993 run. No candidates were found. We set a preliminary limit beyond the LEP limit for the considered mixing case on the |U e4 | 2 - m ν4 plane

  17. Analiticity in fourth order wave equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bollini, C.G.

    1987-01-01

    Through a familiar example (δ-function potential in one dimension) the analytic properties of Jost functions associated with fourth order equations are presented. It is shown how to construct the Jost functions and the two discontinuities matrices associated to the line of singularities. The latter divide the complex k-plane in eight regions of analiticity. One of these matrices is related to the asymptotic behaviour of scattering state. The other is not. Both being necessary to solve the inverse problem. Besides the usual poles related to bound states there are also other poles associated with total reflexion. (Author) [pt

  18. Fourth international seminar on horizontal steam generators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tuomisto, H [ed.; IVO Group, Vantaa (Finland); Purhonen, H [ed.; VTT, Espoo (Finland); Kouhia, V [ed.; Lappeenranta Univ. of Technology (Finland)

    1998-12-31

    The general objective of the International Seminars of Horizontal Steam Generator Modelling has been the improvement in understanding of realistic thermal hydraulic behaviour of the generators when performing safety analyses for VVER reactors. The main topics presented in the fourth seminar were: thermal hydraulic experiments and analyses, primary collector integrity, feedwater distributor replacement, management of primary-to-secondary leakage accidents and new developments in the VVER safety technology. The number of participants, representing designers and manufacturers of the horizontal steam generators, plant operators, engineering companies, research organizations, universities and regulatory authorities, was 70 from 10 countries.

  19. Fourth international seminar on horizontal steam generators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tuomisto, H.; Purhonen, H.; Kouhia, V.

    1997-01-01

    The general objective of the International Seminars of Horizontal Steam Generator Modelling has been the improvement in understanding of realistic thermal hydraulic behaviour of the generators when performing safety analyses for VVER reactors. The main topics presented in the fourth seminar were: thermal hydraulic experiments and analyses, primary collector integrity, feedwater distributor replacement, management of primary-to-secondary leakage accidents and new developments in the VVER safety technology. The number of participants, representing designers and manufacturers of the horizontal steam generators, plant operators, engineering companies, research organizations, universities and regulatory authorities, was 70 from 10 countries

  20. An experiment with the fourth Futamura projection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Glück, Robert

    2010-01-01

    We have experimentally validated the theoretical insight, that a compiler generator is an Ershov generating extension of a program specializer, by showing that an existing offline partial evaluator can perform the fourth Futamura projection. Specifically, an online and an offline partial evaluator...... for an imperative flowchart language were transformed into two new compiler generators by Romanenko’s classical partial evaluator Unmix. The two partial evaluators are described, as is a novel recursive method for polyvariant specialization. The new compiler generators are demonstrated by converting a universal...

  1. Assessing changes in extreme convective precipitation from a damage perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.

    2016-12-01

    Projected increases in high-intensity short-duration convective precipitation are expected even in regions that are likely to become more arid. Such high intensity precipitation events can trigger hazardous flash floods, debris flows and landslides that put people and local assets at risk. However, the assessment of local scale precipitation extremes is hampered by its high spatial and temporal variability. In addition to which, not only are extreme events rare, but such small scale events are likely to be underreported where they don't coincide with the observation network. Rather than focus solely on the convective precipitation, understanding the characteristics of these extremes which drive damage may be more effective to assess future risks. Two sources of data are used in this study. First, sub-daily precipitation observations over the Southern Alps enable an examination of seasonal and regional patterns in high-intensity convective precipitation and their relationship with weather types. Secondly, reports of private loss and damage on a household scale are used to identify which events are most damaging, or what conditions potentially enhance the vulnerability to these extremes.This study explores the potential added value from including recorded loss and damage data to understand the risks from summertime convective precipitation events. By relating precipitation generating weather types to the severity of damage we hope to develop a mechanism to assess future risks. A further benefit would be to identify from damage reports the likely occurrence of precipitation extremes where no direct observations are available and use this information to validate remotely sensed observations.

  2. How to Assess Vulnerabilities of Water Policies to Global Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, A.; Haasnoot, M.; Weijs, S.

    2017-12-01

    Water managers are confronted with uncertainties arising from hydrological, societal, economical and political drivers. To manage these uncertainties two paradigms have been identified: top-down and bottom-up approaches. Top-down or prediction-based approaches use socio-economic scenarios together with a discrete set of GCM projections (often downscaled) to assess the expected impact of drivers and policies on water resource system through various hydrological and social systems models. Adaptation strategies to alleviate these impacts are then identified and tested against the scenarios. To address GCM and downscaling uncertainties, these approaches put more focus on climate predictions, rather than the decision problem itself. Triggered by the wish to have a more scenario-neutral approach and address downscaling uncertainties, recent analyses have been shifted towards vulnerability-based (bottom-up or decision-centric) approaches. They begin at the local scale by addressing socio-economic responses to climate, often involving stakeholder's input; identify vulnerabilities under a larger sample of plausible futures and evaluate sensitivity and robustness of possible adaptation options. Several bottom-up approaches have emerged so far and are increasingly recommended. Fundamentally they share several core ideas, however, subtle differences exist in vulnerability assessment, visualization tools for exploring vulnerabilities and computational methods used for identifying robust water policies. Through this study, we try to identify how these approaches are progressing, how the climate and non-climate uncertainties are being confronted and how to integrate existing and new tools. We find that choice of a method may depend on the number of vulnerability drivers identified and type of threshold levels (environmental conditions or policy objectives) defined. Certain approaches are suited well for assessing adaptive capacities, tipping points and sequencing of decisions

  3. Relevance of hydro-climatic change projection and monitoring for assessment of water cycle changes in the Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bring, Arvid; Destouni, Georgia

    2011-06-01

    Rapid changes to the Arctic hydrological cycle challenge both our process understanding and our ability to find appropriate adaptation strategies. We have investigated the relevance and accuracy development of climate change projections for assessment of water cycle changes in major Arctic drainage basins. Results show relatively good agreement of climate model projections with observed temperature changes, but high model inaccuracy relative to available observation data for precipitation changes. Direct observations further show systematically larger (smaller) runoff than precipitation increases (decreases). This result is partly attributable to uncertainties and systematic bias in precipitation observations, but still indicates that some of the observed increase in Arctic river runoff is due to water storage changes, for example melting permafrost and/or groundwater storage changes, within the drainage basins. Such causes of runoff change affect sea level, in addition to ocean salinity, and inland water resources, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Process-based hydrological modeling and observations, which can resolve changes in evapotranspiration, and groundwater and permafrost storage at and below river basin scales, are needed in order to accurately interpret and translate climate-driven precipitation changes to changes in freshwater cycling and runoff. In contrast to this need, our results show that the density of Arctic runoff monitoring has become increasingly biased and less relevant by decreasing most and being lowest in river basins with the largest expected climatic changes.

  4. Projecting Poverty at the Household Scale to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Poor People

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallegatte, S.; Rozenberg, J.

    2015-12-01

    This paper quantifies the potential impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030 and 2050, in 92 countries covering 90% of the developing world population. It accounts for the deep uncertainties that characterize future socio-economic evolutions and the lack of data regarding the condition and livelihood of poor people. It also considers many impacts of climate change, another source of uncertainty. We use a micro-simulation model based on household surveys and explore a wide range of uncertainties on future structural change, productivity growth or demographic changes. This results, for each country, in the creation of several hundred scenarios for future income growth and income distribution. We then explore the resulting space of possible futures and use scenario discovery techniques to identify the main drivers of inequalities and poverty reduction. We find that redistribution and structural change are powerful drivers of poverty and inequality reduction, except in low-income countries. In the poorest countries in Africa, reducing poverty cannot rely on redistribution but requires low population growth and productivity growth in agriculture. Once we have explored the space of possible outcomes for poverty and inequalities, we choose two representative scenarios of the best and worst cases and model the impacts of climate change in each of these two scenarios. Climate change impacts are modeled through 4 channels. First, climate change has an impact on labor productivity growth for people who work outside because of higher temperatures. Second, climate change has an impact on human capital because of more severe stunting in some places. Third, climate change has an impact on physical capital via more frequent natural disasters. Fourth, climate change has an impact on consumption because of changes in food prices. Impacts are very heterogeneous across countries and are mostly concentrated in African and South-East Asian countries. For high radiative forcing (RCP8

  5. Changes in Methodology for Assessing Performance of Research Organisations and Influence of Such Changes on Researchers' Behaviour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luboš Marek

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Assessing quality of research results on an international scale is a basis for evaluating the level of scientific activities pursued in research organisations. In the past 15 years, significant changes have occurred in the Czech Republic in research management and, in particular, the methodology of assessing research results. The methodology of assessment and its modifications should always be focused on increasing quality of research results; the rules of assessment have their effects on researchers' behaviour. This paper studies a question of whether the changes applied to the methodology of assessing research results in the Czech Republic have supported higher quality research results, i.e., results published in high-quality international journals. The authors have developed their own statistical test to measure significance of such changes, as well as other statistical tests of hypotheses. The main source is represented by the results of assessing public universities in the Czech Republic according to "Methodology for assessing results of research organisations" in 2010 and 2013. Our tests have not proven any statistically significant differences in the numbers of papers published in the journals monitored in the Web of Science and Scopus databases.

  6. Tools and Techniques for Basin-Scale Climate Change Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zagona, E.; Rajagopalan, B.; Oakley, W.; Wilson, N.; Weinstein, P.; Verdin, A.; Jerla, C.; Prairie, J. R.

    2012-12-01

    The Department of Interior's WaterSMART Program seeks to secure and stretch water supplies to benefit future generations and identify adaptive measures to address climate change. Under WaterSMART, Basin Studies are comprehensive water studies to explore options for meeting projected imbalances in water supply and demand in specific basins. Such studies could be most beneficial with application of recent scientific advances in climate projections, stochastic simulation, operational modeling and robust decision-making, as well as computational techniques to organize and analyze many alternatives. A new integrated set of tools and techniques to facilitate these studies includes the following components: Future supply scenarios are produced by the Hydrology Simulator, which uses non-parametric K-nearest neighbor resampling techniques to generate ensembles of hydrologic traces based on historical data, optionally conditioned on long paleo reconstructed data using various Markov Chain techniuqes. Resampling can also be conditioned on climate change projections from e.g., downscaled GCM projections to capture increased variability; spatial and temporal disaggregation is also provided. The simulations produced are ensembles of hydrologic inputs to the RiverWare operations/infrastucture decision modeling software. Alternative demand scenarios can be produced with the Demand Input Tool (DIT), an Excel-based tool that allows modifying future demands by groups such as states; sectors, e.g., agriculture, municipal, energy; and hydrologic basins. The demands can be scaled at future dates or changes ramped over specified time periods. Resulting data is imported directly into the decision model. Different model files can represent infrastructure alternatives and different Policy Sets represent alternative operating policies, including options for noticing when conditions point to unacceptable vulnerabilities, which trigger dynamically executing changes in operations or other

  7. Indicators of climate change in Idaho: An assessment framework for coupling biophysical change and social perception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change is well documented at the global scale, but local and regional changes are not as well understood. Finer, local-to-regional scale information is needed for creating specific, place-based planning and adaption efforts. Here we detail the development of an indicator-focused climate chan...

  8. Improving Assessment: Creating a Culture of Assessment with a Change Management Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, Michael R.; Lane, Peggy L.; Rich, John; Wheeling, Barbara

    2015-01-01

    For more than twenty years accrediting agencies have required assessment as part of their initial accreditation or reaffirmation processes. During that period of time thousands of institutions have successfully prepared plans to achieve or maintain their accreditation. Why then does a culture of assessment not exist? And why is assessment still an…

  9. Integrated assessment of adaptation to Climate change in Flevoland at the farm and regional level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wolf, J.; Mandryk, M.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Oort, van P.A.J.; Schaap, B.F.; Reidsma, P.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2011-01-01

    A key objective of the AgriAdapt project is to assess climate change impacts on agriculture including adaptation at regional and farm type level in combination with market and technological changes. More specifically, the developed methodologies enable (a) the assessment of impacts, risks and

  10. Anesthesiology Journal club assessment by means of semantic changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieira, Joaquim Edson; Torres, Marcelo Luís Abramides; Pose, Regina Albanese; Auler, José Otávio Costa Junior

    2014-01-01

    the interactive approach of a journal club has been described in the medical education literature. The aim of this investigation is to present an assessment of journal club as a tool to address the question whether residents read more and critically. this study reports the performance of medical residents in anesthesiology from the Clinics Hospital - University of São Paulo Medical School. All medical residents were invited to answer five questions derived from discussed papers. The answer sheet consisted of an affirmative statement with a Likert type scale (totally disagree-disagree-not sure-agree-totally agree), each related to one of the chosen articles. The results were evaluated by means of item analysis - difficulty index and discrimination power. residents filled one hundred and seventy three evaluations in the months of December 2011 (n=51), July 2012 (n=66) and December 2012 (n=56). The first exam presented all items with straight statement, second and third exams presented mixed items. Separating "totally agree" from "agree" increased the difficulty indices, but did not improve the discrimination power. the use of a journal club assessment with straight and inverted statements and by means of five points scale for agreement has been shown to increase its item difficulty and discrimination power. This may reflect involvement either with the reading or the discussion during the journal meeting. Copyright © 2013 Sociedade Brasileira de Anestesiologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  11. Regional Landslide Hazard Assessment Considering Potential Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, S.; Holcombe, E.; Pianosi, F.; Wagener, T.

    2016-12-01

    Landslides have many negative economic and societal impacts, including the potential for significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. These risks are likely to be exacerbated in the future by a combination of climatic and socio-economic factors. Climate change, for example, is expected to increase the occurrence of rainfall-triggered landslides, because a warmer atmosphere tends to produce more high intensity rainfall events. Prediction of future changes in rainfall, however, is subject to high levels of uncertainty, making it challenging for decision-makers to identify the areas and populations that are most vulnerable to landslide hazards. In this study, we demonstrate how a physically-based model - the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model (CHASM) - can be used together with Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to explore the underlying factors controlling the spatial distribution of landslide risks across a regional landscape, while also accounting for deep uncertainty around potential future rainfall triggers. We demonstrate how GSA can be used to analyse CHASM which in turn represents the spatial variability of hillslope characteristics in the study region, while accounting for other uncertainties. Results are presented in the form of landslide hazard maps, utilising high-resolution digital elevation datasets for a case study in St Lucia in the Caribbean. Our findings about spatial landslide hazard drivers have important implications for data collection approaches and for long-term decision-making about land management practices.

  12. Climate change mitigation: comparative assessment of Malaysian and ASEAN scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasiah, Rajah; Ahmed, Adeel; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Chenayah, Santha

    2017-01-01

    This paper analyses empirically the optimal climate change mitigation policy of Malaysia with the business as usual scenario of ASEAN to compare their environmental and economic consequences over the period 2010-2110. A downscaling empirical dynamic model is constructed using a dual multidisciplinary framework combining economic, earth science, and ecological variables to analyse the long-run consequences. The model takes account of climatic variables, including carbon cycle, carbon emission, climatic damage, carbon control, carbon concentration, and temperature. The results indicate that without optimal climate policy and action, the cumulative cost of climate damage for Malaysia and ASEAN as a whole over the period 2010-2110 would be MYR40.1 trillion and MYR151.0 trillion, respectively. Under the optimal policy, the cumulative cost of climatic damage for Malaysia would fall to MYR5.3 trillion over the 100 years. Also, the additional economic output of Malaysia will rise from MYR2.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.6 billion in 2050 and MYR5.5 billion in 2110 under the optimal climate change mitigation scenario. The additional economic output for ASEAN would fall from MYR8.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.2 billion in 2050 before rising again slightly to MYR4.7 billion in 2110 in the business as usual ASEAN scenario.

  13. Assessment of 21st century change of climate drivers to hydrological change across the Appalachian Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, R.; Zegre, N.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric water supply and demand largely drives the available water in the land surface. Precipitation (P) is the main supply of water to the land surface, while water demand largely depends on energy supply. Most frameworks that analyze climate change have limit their scope to changes in P and temperature as an indicator of energy. However, atmospheric water demand is not only dependent on temperature but also on variables such as solar radiation, air humidity and wind. For this study, we use the downscaled GCM outputs of (P) and calculate atmospheric water demand by aggregating solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, and wind as potential evapotranspiration (EP) using the Penman-Monteith equation across the Appalachian Region. We investigate absolute changes in P and EP and changes in their relation or aridity index (AI=EP/P) to spatially determine places becoming wetter or drier. Moreover, we explore how their changes are distributed throughout the year, i.e. changes in the seasonality for P and widening of the intra-annual cycle of EP. The changes in seasonality can act as a further indicator of the partition of precipitation into evaporation or land surface water. Changes of precipitation that occur during summer are likely to be partitioned towards evapotranspiration whereas changes in winter are likely to be absorbed by land surface components of storage and runoff. Furthermore, widening of the intra-annual cycle of EP means that there will be water demand for a longer part of the year (earlier in spring and later in autumn). Our results show that places with lower mean annual temperature are likely to experience larger temperature changes. Regarding the AI, the Eastern Coasts of North and South Carolina, and Georgia as well as Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky are likely to get drier. The states of New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, and inland North and South Carolina and Alabama are likely to become wetter, with West Virginia

  14. Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation using an economic pluvial flood risk framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    It is anticipated that climate change is likely to lead to an increasing risk level of flooding in cities in northern Europe. One challenging question is how to best address the increasing flood risk and assess the costs and benefits of adapting to such changes. We established an integrated...... approach for identification and assessment of climate change adaptation options by incorporating climate change impacts, flood inundation modelling, economic tool and risk assessment and management. The framework is further extended and adapted by embedding a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the total...

  15. Towards a fourth spatial dimension of brain activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tozzi, Arturo; Peters, James F

    2016-06-01

    Current advances in neurosciences deal with the functional architecture of the central nervous system, paving the way for general theories that improve our understanding of brain activity. From topology, a strong concept comes into play in understanding brain functions, namely, the 4D space of a "hypersphere's torus", undetectable by observers living in a 3D world. The torus may be compared with a video game with biplanes in aerial combat: when a biplane flies off one edge of gaming display, it does not crash but rather it comes back from the opposite edge of the screen. Our thoughts exhibit similar behaviour, i.e. the unique ability to connect past, present and future events in a single, coherent picture as if we were allowed to watch the three screens of past-present-future "glued" together in a mental kaleidoscope. Here we hypothesize that brain functions are embedded in a imperceptible fourth spatial dimension and propose a method to empirically assess its presence. Neuroimaging fMRI series can be evaluated, looking for the topological hallmark of the presence of a fourth dimension. Indeed, there is a typical feature which reveal the existence of a functional hypersphere: the simultaneous activation of areas opposite each other on the 3D cortical surface. Our suggestion-substantiated by recent findings-that brain activity takes place on a closed, donut-like trajectory helps to solve long-standing mysteries concerning our psychological activities, such as mind-wandering, memory retrieval, consciousness and dreaming state.

  16. Assessing changes in failure probability of dams in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallakpour, I.; AghaKouchak, A.; Moftakhari, H.; Ragno, E.

    2017-12-01

    Dams are crucial infrastructures and provide resilience against hydrometeorological extremes (e.g., droughts and floods). In 2017, California experienced series of flooding events terminating a 5-year drought, and leading to incidents such as structural failure of Oroville Dam's spillway. Because of large socioeconomic repercussions of such incidents, it is of paramount importance to evaluate dam failure risks associated with projected shifts in the streamflow regime. This becomes even more important as the current procedures for design of hydraulic structures (e.g., dams, bridges, spillways) are based on the so-called stationary assumption. Yet, changes in climate are anticipated to result in changes in statistics of river flow (e.g., more extreme floods) and possibly increasing the failure probability of already aging dams. Here, we examine changes in discharge under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In this study, we used routed daily streamflow data from ten global climate models (GCMs) in order to investigate possible climate-induced changes in streamflow in northern California. Our results show that while the average flow does not show a significant change, extreme floods are projected to increase in the future. Using the extreme value theory, we estimate changes in the return periods of 50-year and 100-year floods in the current and future climates. Finally, we use the historical and future return periods to quantify changes in failure probability of dams in a warming climate.

  17. Using dreams to assess clinical change during treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glucksman, Myron L; Kramer, Milton

    2004-01-01

    This article describes several studies that examine the relationship between the manifest content of selected dreams reported by patients and their clinical progress during psychoanalytic and psychodynamically oriented treatment. There are a number of elements that dreaming and psychotherapy have in common: affect regulation; conflict resolution; problem-solving; self-awareness; mastery and adaptation. Four different studies examined the relationship between the manifest content of selected dreams and clinical progress during treatment. In each study, the ratings of manifest content and clinical progress by independent observers were rank-ordered and compared. In three of the four studies there was a significant correlation between the rankings of manifest content and the rankings of clinical progress. This finding suggests that the manifest content of dreams can be used as an independent variable to assess clinical progress during psychoanalytic and psychodynamically oriented treatment.

  18. Avoidance within a changing assessment paradigm for Mediterranean Hake stocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. RAGONESE

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean hake Merluccius merluccius L., 1758, is the emblem of the so-called Mediterranean demersal fisheries paradox, showing a persistent, although stable, status of growth overexploitation and an impressive gap between current and any biological reference point. Almost full avoidance capability of large size females to bottom trawls, higher overall growth rates than previously believed and higher natural mortality in juveniles than adult, were considered among the most plausible explanation factors of such persistence. In the present note, arguments are illustrated to raise some concern about avoidance and highlight the important role of the other factors in improving assessments and launching a short term recovery plan for Mediterranean Hake stocks which is more acceptable to fishermen.

  19. Motivators and Barriers to Incorporating Climate Change-Related Health Risks in Environmental Health Impact Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Turner, Lyle R.; Alderman, Katarzyna; Connell, Des; Tong, Shilu

    2013-01-01

    Climate change presents risks to health that must be addressed by both decision-makers and public health researchers. Within the application of Environmental Health Impact Assessment (EHIA), there have been few attempts to incorporate climate change-related health risks as an input to the framework. This study used a focus group design to examine the perceptions of government, industry and academic specialists about the suitability of assessing the health consequences of climate change within...

  20. Combining landscape variables and species traits can improve the utility of climate change vulnerability assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadeau, Christopher P.; Fuller, Angela K.

    2016-01-01

    Conservation organizations worldwide are investing in climate change vulnerability assessments. Most vulnerability assessment methods focus on either landscape features or species traits that can affect a species vulnerability to climate change. However, landscape features and species traits likely interact to affect vulnerability. We compare a landscape-based assessment, a trait-based assessment, and an assessment that combines landscape variables and species traits for 113 species of birds, herpetofauna, and mammals in the northeastern United States. Our aim is to better understand which species traits and landscape variables have the largest influence on assessment results and which types of vulnerability assessments are most useful for different objectives. Species traits were most important for determining which species will be most vulnerable to climate change. The sensitivity of species to dispersal barriers and the species average natal dispersal distance were the most important traits. Landscape features were most important for determining where species will be most vulnerable because species were most vulnerable in areas where multiple landscape features combined to increase vulnerability, regardless of species traits. The interaction between landscape variables and species traits was important when determining how to reduce climate change vulnerability. For example, an assessment that combines information on landscape connectivity, climate change velocity, and natal dispersal distance suggests that increasing landscape connectivity may not reduce the vulnerability of many species. Assessments that include landscape features and species traits will likely be most useful in guiding conservation under climate change.

  1. Assessment of environmental change and its socio-economic impacts in the mangrove ecological zone of the Niger Delta, Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Godstime Kadiri

    The Niger Delta, located in the central part of Southern Nigeria, is endowed with immense Mangrove resources, estimated to be the fourth largest in the world. The term Mangrove refers to salt tolerant species of trees or shrubs that grow on shores and in estuaries located in the coastal tropics and sub-tropical regions of the world. They support highly productive marine food chains. However, Mangrove ecosystems are in serious decline around the world due to the rapid increase in maritime commerce and exploration of mineral resources in the last few decades. These pressures often have immediate consequences on sensitive coastal environments and can potentially impact future human use of coastal space and resources. This dynamic process presents unique opportunities for research to explore the nature and consequences of these pressures. This dissertation focused on the Mangrove ecological zone of the Niger Delta, where resource exploitation and indigenous use of the environment are in direct conflict with important socio-economic implications. Environmental accounting metrics derived from the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework were used to assess changes in the spatial extent of the Niger Delta Mangrove ecosystem and the socio-economic impacts of the observed changes. Landsat remotely sensed satellite data from the mid-1980s through 2003 was used to assess change in the spatial extent of the Mangrove vegetation in the region. A total of 21,340 hectares of Mangrove forest was determined to be lost over the study period. Field research in the region confirmed that this loss was primarily driven by urbanization and activities of the multinational oil and gas corporations operating in the region. To estimate the socio-economic impacts of the Mangrove loss in the region, neoclassical economic valuation and participatory social valuation approaches were adopted. Results from the economic valuation revealed that the net present value of future income

  2. First and Fourth-Year Student’s Perceptions about Importance of Nursing Care Behaviors: Socialization toward Caring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vahid Zamanzadeh

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The essence of professional nursing is caring and so, nursing education must make caring as a significant part of their curricula. In this regard, little research exists about how nursing students perceive caring. The aim of this study is to investigate the nursing students' perception toward caring and thus, the impact of socialization process on their perception of caring will be determined. Methods: A cross-sectional study was done among all first and fourth-year nursing students (n=230 in Tabriz and Urmia faculties of nursing, 2012. Data were collected using Larson’s Caring Questionnaire that assessed the importance of nursing care behaviors (n=50 in six dimensions: "being accessible", "explains and facilitates", "comforts", "anticipates", "trusting relationship" and "monitors and follows through". Results: The importance of caring behaviors was evaluated by the first and fourth-year nursing students in moderate to high level and also, the both groups considered higher ranks for "monitors and follows through" and "being accessible" and lower ranks for "anticipates" and "trusting relationships". The fourth-year students only ranked "explains and facilitates" higher than the first-year students, but the "comforts" dimension is not differed significantly between groups.Conclusion: The findings demonstrated that nursing education in this study has not likely succeeded in producing intended changes in the nursing students' perceptions. It is recommended to exactly find the perceptual changes or in principle the professional socialization process of nursing students, more research using longitudinal designs be conducted to examine the differences in students' perceptions of caring upon entering and completing the nursing program.

  3. LCMS landscape change monitoring system—results from an information needs assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin Megown; Brian Schwind; Don Evans; Mark. Finco

    2015-01-01

    Understanding changes in land use and land cover over space and time provides an important means to evaluate complex interactions between human and biophysical systems, to project future conditions, and to design mitigation and adaptive management strategies. Assessing and monitoring landscape change is evolving into a foundational element of climate change adaptation...

  4. 75 FR 51806 - Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-23

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9192-2; Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-ORD-2010-0701] Climate Change... period for the draft document titled, ``Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Four Case Studies of... vulnerability to future climate change. The report is intended to illustrate the types of analyses, models, and...

  5. Climate change assessment for Mediterranean agricultural areas by statistical downscaling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Palatella

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we produce projections of seasonal precipitation for four Mediterranean areas: Apulia region (Italy, Ebro river basin (Spain, Po valley (Italy and Antalya province (Turkey. We performed the statistical downscaling using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA in two versions: in one case Principal Component Analysis (PCA filter is applied only to predictor and in the other to both predictor and predictand. After performing a validation test, CCA after PCA filter on both predictor and predictand has been chosen. Sea level pressure (SLP is used as predictor. Downscaling has been carried out for the scenarios A2 and B2 on the basis of three GCM's: the CCCma-GCM2, the Csiro-MK2 and HadCM3. Three consecutive 30-year periods have been considered. For Summer precipitation in Apulia region we also use the 500 hPa temperature (T500 as predictor, obtaining comparable results. Results show different climate change signals in the four areas and confirm the need of an analysis that is capable of resolving internal differences within the Mediterranean region. The most robust signal is the reduction of Summer precipitation in the Ebro river basin. Other significative results are the increase of precipitation over Apulia in Summer, the reduction over the Po-valley in Spring and Autumn and the increase over the Antalya province in Summer and Autumn.

  6. Assessing rates of forest change and fragmentation in Alabama, USA, using the vegetation change tracker model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Mingshi; Huang, Chengquan; Zhu, Zhiliang; Shi, Hua; Lu, Heng; Peng, Shikui

    2009-01-01

    Forest change is of great concern for land use decision makers and conservation communities. Quantitative and spatial forest change information is critical for addressing many pressing issues, including global climate change, carbon budgets, and sustainability. In this study, our analysis focuses on the differences in geospatial patterns and their changes between federal forests and nonfederal forests in Alabama over the time period 1987–2005, by interpreting 163 Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) scenes using a vegetation change tracker (VCT) model. Our analysis revealed that for the most part of 1990 s and between 2000 and 2005, Alabama lost about 2% of its forest on an annual basis due to disturbances, but much of the losses were balanced by forest regeneration from previous disturbances. The disturbance maps revealed that federal forests were reasonably well protected, with the fragmentation remaining relatively stable over time. In contrast, nonfederal forests, which are predominant in area share (about 95%), were heavily disturbed, clearly demonstrating decreasing levels of fragmentation during the time period 1987–1993 giving way to a subsequent accelerating fragmentation during the time period 1994–2005. Additionally, the identification of the statistical relationships between forest fragmentation status and forest loss rate and forest net change rate in relation to land ownership implied the distinct differences in forest cutting rate and cutting patterns between federal forests and nonfederal forests. The forest spatial change information derived from the model has provided valuable insights regarding regional forest management practices and disturbance regimes, which are closely associated with regional economics and environmental concerns.

  7. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iain Brown

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

  8. Climate Change Assessment of Precipitation in Tandula Reservoir System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Rahul Kumar; Tiwari, H. L.; Lohani, A. K.

    2018-02-01

    The precipitation is the principle input of hydrological cycle affect availability of water in spatial and temporal scale of basin due to widely accepted climate change. The present study deals with the statistical downscaling using Statistical Down Scaling Model for rainfall of five rain gauge stations (Ambagarh, Bhanpura, Balod, Chamra and Gondli) in Tandula, Kharkhara and Gondli reservoirs of Chhattisgarh state of India to forecast future rainfall in three different periods under SRES A1B and A2 climatic forcing conditions. In the analysis, twenty-six climatic variables obtained from National Centers for Environmental Prediction were used and statistically tested for selection of best-fit predictors. The conditional process based statistical correlation was used to evolve multiple linear relations in calibration for period of 1981-1995 was tested with independent data of 1996-2003 for validation. The developed relations were further used to predict future rainfall scenarios for three different periods 2020-2035 (FP-1), 2046-2064 (FP-2) and 2081-2100 (FP-3) and compared with monthly rainfalls during base period (1981-2003) for individual station and all three reservoir catchments. From the analysis, it has been found that most of the rain gauge stations and all three reservoir catchments may receive significant less rainfall in future. The Thiessen polygon based annual and seasonal rainfall for different catchments confirmed a reduction of seasonal rainfall from 5.1 to 14.1% in Tandula reservoir, 11-19.2% in Kharkhara reservoir and 15.1-23.8% in Gondli reservoir. The Gondli reservoir may be affected the most in term of water availability in future prediction periods.

  9. Integrated Assessment of Climate Change, Land-Use Changes, and Regional Carbon Dynamics in United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, J. E.; Sleeter, B. M.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    The fact that climate change is likely to accelerate throughout this century means that climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture will need to adapt increasingly to climate change. This fact also means that understanding the potential for agricultural adaptation, and how it could come about, is important for ongoing technology investments in the public and private sectors, for infrastructure investments, and for the various policies that address agriculture directly or indirectly. This paper is an interdisciplinary study by collaborating with climate scientist, agronomists, economists, and ecologists. We first use statistical models to estimate impacts of climate change on major crop yields (wheat, corn, soybeans, sorghum, and cotton) and predict changes in crop yields under future climate condition using downscaled climate projections from CMIP5. Then, we feed the predicted yield changes to a partial equilibrium economic model (FASOM-GHG) to evaluate economic and environmental outcomes including changes in land uses (i.e., cropland, pastureland, forest land, urban land and land for conservation) in United States. Finally, we use outputs from FASOM-GHG as inputs for the ST-SIM ecological model to simulate future carbon dynamics through changes in land use under future climate conditions and discuss the rate of adaptation through land-use changes. Findings in this paper have several merits compared to previous findings in the literature. First, we add economic components to the carbon calculation. It is important to include socio-economic conditions when calculating carbon emission and/or carbon sequestration because human activities are the major contribution to atmosphere GHG emissions. Second, we use the most recent downscaled climate projections from CMIP5 to capture uncertainties from climate model projections. Instead of using all GCMs, we select five GCMs to represent the ensemble. Third, we use a bottom-up approach because we start from micro-level data

  10. Assessment of bracket surface morphology and dimensional change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pillai Devu Radhakrishnan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The objective of this study was to compare the surface morphology and dimensional stability of the bracket slot at the onset of treatment and after 12 months of intraoral exposure. The study also compared the amount of calcium at the bracket base which indicates enamel loss among the three orthodontic brackets following debonding after 12 months of intraoral exposure. Materials and Methods: The sample consisted of 60 (0.022” MBT canine brackets. They were divided into three groups: self-ligating, ceramic bracket with metal slot, and stainless steel (SS brackets. The slot dimensions, micromorphologic characteristics of as-received and retrieved brackets were measured with a stereomicroscope and scanning electron microscope (SEM, respectively. The amount of calcium at the bracket base which indicates enamel damage was quantified using energy-dispersive X-ray spectrometry (EDX. Results: The results showed statistically significant alterations (P < 0.05 in the right vertical dimension, internal tie wing width (cervical, right and left depth of the slot (Kruskal–Wallis test. Multiple comparison using Mann–Whitney test showed that ceramic brackets underwent (P < 0.05 minimal alterations in the right vertical dimension, internal tie wing width (cervical, right and left depth of the slot (0.01 mm, −0.003 mm, 0.006 mm, −0.002 mm, respectively when compared with the changes seen in SS and self-ligating brackets. SEM analysis revealed an increase in the surface roughness of ceramic with metal slot brackets and self-ligating bracket showed the least irregularity. The presence of calcium was noted on all evaluated brackets under EDX, but ceramic with metal slot brackets showed a significantly greater amount of enamel loss (P = 0.001. Conclusion: Ceramic brackets were found to be dimensionally stable when compared to SS and self-ligating. Self-ligating bracket showed minimal surface irregularity. Ceramic with metal slot brackets showed a

  11. Fourth-rank gravity. A progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tapia, V.

    1992-04-01

    We consider the consequences of describing the metric properties of space-time through a quartic line element. The associated ''metric'' is a fourth-rank tensor. After developing some fundamentals for such geometry, we construct a field theory for the gravitational field. This theory coincides with General Relativity in the vacuum case. Departures from General Relativity are obtained only in the presence of matter. We develop a simple cosmological model which is not in contradiction with the observed value Ω approx. 0.2-0.3 for the energy density parameter. A further application concerns conformal field theory. We are able to prove that a conformal field theory possesses an infinite-dimensional symmetry group only if the dimension of space-time is equal to the rank of the metric. In this case we are able to construct an integrable conformal field theory in four dimensions. The model is renormalisable by power counting. (author). 9 refs

  12. Fourth International Conference on Complex Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Minai, Ali A; Unifying Themes in Complex Systems IV

    2008-01-01

    In June of 2002, over 500 professors, students and researchers met in Boston, Massachusetts for the Fourth International Conference on Complex Systems. The attendees represented a remarkably diverse collection of fields: biology, ecology, physics, engineering, computer science, economics, psychology and sociology, The goal of the conference was to encourage cross-fertilization between the many disciplines represented and to deepen understanding of the properties common to all complex systems. This volume contains 43 papers selected from the more than 200 presented at the conference. Topics include: cellular automata, neurology, evolution, computer science, network dynamics, and urban planning. About NECSI: For over 10 years, The New England Complex Systems Institute (NECSI) has been instrumental in the development of complex systems science and its applications. NECSI conducts research, education, knowledge dissemination, and community development around the world for the promotion of the study of complex sys...

  13. Fourth Thematic CERN School of Computing

    CERN Multimedia

    Alberto Pace, CSC Director

    2016-01-01

    The Fourth Thematic School of Computing (tCSC2016) takes place this year in Split, Croatia, from 22 to 28 May 2016.   The theme is "Efficient and Parallel Processing of Scientific Data", looking at: The challenge of scientific data processing: commonalities, analogies and the main differences between different sciences. Size of scientific software projects. Parallelism and asynchronism: computation and I/O. The School is open to postgraduate students and research workers with a few years' experience in elementary particle physics, computing, engineering or related fields.  All applicants are welcome, including former and future participants in the main CSC summer school. Registration will close on 15 February and participation is limited to 24 students. To register, please go here. About: The Thematic Schools are part of the annual series of CERN Schools of Computing, to promote advanced learning and knowledge exchange on the subject of scientific compu...

  14. Fourth World Theory: The Evolution of . . .

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olon F. Dotson

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Fourth World theory is a methodology for examining and developing greater understanding of the extent of the distress and abandonment commonly found in the cores of American cities resulting from de-industrialization, historic segregation and discrimination patterns, suburban sprawl, erosion of a viable tax base, racism, inability to embrace the concept of desegregation and civil rights legislation, fear, despair, crumbling infrastructure systems, disinvestment in urban school systems, and environmental justice issues. This article uses the analytical lens of Fourth World theory to examine how such structural and cultural forces contributed to the severely distressed conditions now found in the city of Gary, Indiana. Tracking its one-hundred-year history, from its founding as an industrial town through its post-industrial decline occurring during the city’s first African-American mayor’s five terms in office, the methodology clearly demonstrates how the social construction of race has systematically undermined every aspect of Gary’s overall quality of life. To illustrate that this city is not an anomaly but rather reflects a typical pattern of disparity and uneven development arising from racist practices, Gary is compared to other cities of similar size and also to the much larger Detroit. The article triangulates academic literature, news media archives, and an oral history provided by the mayor to show how Gary evolved from being a model industrial city to a cauldron of racial disparity. The paper concludes by arguing that continued absence of reflection on the nation’s historical racialization of place threatens not just impoverished communities of color, but also the sustainability of the entire nation.

  15. Assessing and adapting to climate change in the Blue Mountains, Oregon (USA: Overview, biogeography, and climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica E. Halofsky

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The Blue Mountains Adaptation Partnership (BMAP was established to increase climate change awareness, assess vulnerability to climate change, and develop science-based adaptation strategies for national forest lands in the Blue Mountains region of northeast Oregon and southeast Washington (USA. The BMAP process included (1 development of a science-management partnership, (2 a vulnerability assessment of the effects of climate change on natural resources and infrastructure, (3 development of adaptation options that will help reduce negative effects of climate change and assist the transition of biological systems and management to a changing climate, and (4 ongoing dialogue and activities related to climate change in the Blue Mountains region. This special issue of Climate Services describes social context and climate change vulnerability assessments for water use and infrastructure, vegetation, and riparian ecosystems of the Blue Mountains region, as well as adaptation options for natural resource management. This manuscript introduces the special issue, describing the management, biogeographic, and climatic context for the Blue Mountains region; the climate change vulnerability assessment and adaptation process used in BMAP; and the potential applications of the information described in the special issue. Although the institutional focus of information in the special issue is U.S. Forest Service lands (Malheur, Umatilla, and Wallowa-Whitman National Forests, the broader social context and adaptation options should be applicable to other lands throughout this region and the Pacific Northwest. Keywords: Climate change adaptation, Pacific Northwest, Resource management, Vulnerability assessment, Blue Mountains

  16. A Global Assessment of Runoff Sensitivity to Changes in Precipitation, Potential Evaporation, and Other Factors

    OpenAIRE

    Berghuijs, Wouter; Larsen, Joshua; van Emmerik, Tim; Woods, Ross

    2017-01-01

    Precipitation (P) and potential evaporation (Ep) are commonly studied drivers of changing freshwater availability, as aridity (Ep/P) explains ∼90% of the spatial differences in mean runoff across the globe. However, it is unclear if changes in aridity over time are also the most important cause for temporal changes in mean runoff and how this degree of importance varies regionally. We show that previous global assessments that address these questions do not properly account for changes due to...

  17. Modeling and assessment of hydrological changes in a developing urban catchment

    OpenAIRE

    Guan, M; Sillanpää, N; Koivusalo, H

    2015-01-01

    Urbanization strongly changes natural catchment by increasing impervious coverage and by creating a need for efficient drainage systems. Such land cover changes lead to more rapid hydrological response to storms and change distribution of peak and low flows. This study aims to explore and assess how gradual hydrological changes occur during urban development from rural area to a medium-density residential catchment. The Stormwater Management Model (SWMM) is utilized to simulate a series of sc...

  18. Proceedings of the fourth annual conference on fossil energy materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Judkins, R.R.; Braski, D.N. (comps.)

    1990-08-01

    The Fourth Annual Conference on Fossil Energy Materials was held in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, on may 15--17, 1990. The meeting was sponsored by the US Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy through the Advanced Research and Technology Development (AR TD) Materials Program, and ASM International. The objective of the AR TD Materials Program is to conduct research and development on materials for longer-term fossil energy applications as well as for generic needs of various fossil fuel technologies. The work is divided into the following categories: (1) Ceramics, (2) New Alloys, (3) Corrosion and Erosion, and (4) Technology Assessment and Technology Transfer. Individual projects are processed separately for the data bases.

  19. Assessing Land Use-Cover Changes and Modelling Change Scenarios in Two Mountain Spanish National Parks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Martínez-Vega

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Land Use-Cover Changes (LUCCs are one of the main problems for the preservation of biodiversity. Protected Areas (PAs do not escape this threat. Some processes, such as intensive recreational use, forest fires or the expansion of artificial areas taking place inside and around them in response to their appeal, question their environmental sustainability and their efficiency. In this paper, we analyze the LUCCs that took place between 1990 and 2006 in two National Parks (NPs belonging to the Spanish network and in their surroundings: Ordesa and Monte Perdido (Ordesa NP and Sierra de Guadarrama (Guadarrama NP. We also simulate land use changes between 2006 and 2030 by means of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs, taking into account two scenarios: trend and green. Finally, we perform a multi-temporal analysis of natural habitat fragmentation in each NP. The results show that the NPs analyzed are well-preserved and have seen hardly any significant LUCCs inside them. However, Socioeconomic Influence Zones (SIZs and buffers are subject to different dynamics. In the SIZ and buffer of the Ordesa NP, there has been an expansion of built-up areas (annual rate of change = +1.19 around small urban hubs and ski resorts. There has also been a gradual recovery of natural areas, which had been interrupted by forest fires. The invasion of sub-alpine grasslands by shrubs is clear (+2735 ha. The SIZ and buffer of the Guadarrama NP are subject to urban sprawl in forest areas and to the construction of road infrastructures (+5549 ha and an annual rate of change = +1.20. Industrial area has multiplied by 3.3 in 20 years. The consequences are an increase in the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI, greater risk of forest fires and greater fragmentation of natural habitats (+0.04 in SIZ. In the change scenarios, if conditions change as expected, the specific threats facing each NP can be expected to increase. There are substantial differences between the scenarios depending on

  20. Hanford Seismic Annual Report and Fourth Quarter Report for Fiscal Year 1999

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    AC Rohay; DC Hartshorn; SP Reidel

    1999-12-07

    Hanford Seismic Monitoring provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network (HSN) for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. Hanford Seismic Monitoring also locates and identifies sources of seismic activity and monitors changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, Natural Phenomena Hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the seismic monitoring organization works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The HSN and the Eastern Washington Regional Network. (EWRN) consist of 40 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Monitoring staff. A major reconfiguration of the HSN was initiated at the end of this quarter and the results will be reported in the first quarter report for next fiscal year (FY2000). For the HSN, there were 390 triggers during the fourth quarter of fiscal year(FY) 1999 on the primary recording system. With the implementation of dual backup systems during the second quarter of the fiscal year and an overall increase observed in sensitivity, a total of 1632 triggers were examined, identified, and processed during this fiscal year. During the fourth quarter, 24 seismic events were located by the HSN within the reporting region of 46 degrees to 47 degrees north latitude and 119 degrees to 120 degrees west longitude 9 were earthquakes in the Columbia River Basalt Group, 2 were earthquakes in the pre-basalt sediments, 10 were earthquakes in the crystalline basement; and 2 were quarry blasts. One earthquake appears to be related to a major geologic structure, 14 earthquakes occurred in known swarm areas, and 7 earthquakes were random occurrences.

  1. The fourth revolution how the infosphere is reshaping human reality

    CERN Document Server

    Floridi, Luciano

    2014-01-01

    Who are we, and how do we relate to each other? Luciano Floridi, one of the leading figures in contemporary philosophy, argues that the explosive developments in Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) is changing the answer to these fundamental human questions. As the boundaries between life online and offline break down, and we become seamlessly connected to each other and surrounded by smart, responsive objects, we are all becoming integrated into an ". Personas we adopt in social media, for example, feed into our 'real' lives so that we begin to live, as Floridi puts in, ". Following those led by Copernicus, Darwin, and Freud, this metaphysical shift represents nothing less than a fourth revolution. " defines more and more of our daily activity - the way we shop, work, learn, care for our health, entertain ourselves, conduct our relationships; the way we interact with the worlds of law, finance, and politics; even the way we conduct war. In every department of life, ICTs have become environmenta...

  2. Effects of Fourth and Second Graders' Cross-Age Tutoring on Students' Spelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Rebekkah J.; Morrison, Timothy G.; Feinauer, Erika; Wilcox, Brad; Black, Sharon

    2016-01-01

    A quasi-experimental study examined some effects of cross-age tutoring on fourth grade tutors' and second grade tutees' ability to spell accurately and correct errors on their own rough drafts. Half of the participating tutors were trained in tutoring skills; half were not. All participants were given pre- and post-assessments. On dictated writing…

  3. The Intersection of Words and Pictures: Second through Fourth Graders Read Graphic Novels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boerman-Cornell, William

    2016-01-01

    This study analyzes how second, third, and fourth graders in a racially integrated suburban school engaged in multimodal meaning making in the context of a book club discussing Ben Hatke's graphic novel "Zita the Spacegirl." Qualitative analysis of field notes and assessments indicated three overall findings: First, students responded to…

  4. Developing Cross-Cultural Competence: A Guide for Working with Children and Their Families. Fourth Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Eleanor W., Ed.; Hanson, Marci J., Ed.

    2011-01-01

    As the U.S. population grows more and more diverse, how can professionals who work with young children and families deliver the best services while honoring different customs, beliefs, and values? The answers are in the fourth edition of this bestselling textbook, fully revised to reflect nearly a decade of population changes and best practices in…

  5. The Readiness of the European Union to Embrace the Fourth Industrial Revolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Kuruczleki

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge has become a crucial factor of production in the developed economies and, as humans are the carriers and utilisers of knowledge, skilled human resource is gaining similarly large relevance. These advancements are elements of the substantial changes that characterise the fourth industrial revolution – a phenomenon worth studying in detail. The European Union has been explicitly concerned about the shift to the knowledge economy since the Lisbon Summit of 2000. More than one and a half decades later the eu’s readiness to embrace the knowledge-driven fourth industrial revolution can be examined. We undertake that by creating an index based on various related data.

  6. Uncertainty assessment of urban pluvial flood risk in a context of climate change adaptation decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian

    2014-01-01

    uncertainty analysis, which can assess and quantify the overall uncertainty in relation to climate change adaptation to urban flash floods. The analysis is based on an uncertainty cascade that by means of Monte Carlo simulations of flood risk assessments incorporates climate change impacts as a key driver......There has been a significant increase in climatic extremes in many regions. In Central and Northern Europe, this has led to more frequent and more severe floods. Along with improved flood modelling technologies this has enabled development of economic assessment of climate change adaptation...... to increasing urban flood risk. Assessment of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis of current risk, drivers of change of risk over time, and measures to reduce the risk. However, such studies are often associated with large uncertainties. The uncertainties arise from...

  7. Extracting information from an ensemble of GCMs to reliably assess future global runoff change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sperna Weiland, F.C.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Weerts, A.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    Future runoff projections derived from different global climate models (GCMs) show large differences. Therefore, within this study the, information from multiple GCMs has been combined to better assess hydrological changes. For projections of precipitation and temperature the Reliability ensemble

  8. Livelihood Vulnerability Approach to Assess Climate Change Impacts to Mixed Agro-Livestock Smallholders Around the Gandaki River Basin of Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panthi, J., Sr.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change vulnerability depends upon various factors and differs between places, sectors and communities. People in developing countries whose subsistence livelihood depends upon agriculture and livestock are identified as particularly vulnerable. Nepal, where the majority of people are in a mixed agro-livestock system, is identified as the world's fourth most vulnerable country to climate change. However, there are few studies on how vulnerable mixed agro-livestock smallholders are and how their vulnerability differs across different ecological regions. This study aims to test two vulnerability assessment indices, livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and IPCC vulnerability index (VI-IPCC), around the Gandaki river basin of Nepal. A total of 543 households practicing mixed agro-livestock were surveyed from three districts (Dhading, Syangja and Kapilvastu) representing the mountain, mid-hill and lowland altitudinal belts respectively. Data on socio-demographics, livelihoods, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters and climate variability were collected. Both indices differed across the three districts, with mixed agro-livestock smallholders of Dhading district found to be the most vulnerable and that of Syangja least vulnerable. This vulnerability index approach may be used to monitor rural vulnerability and/or evaluate potential program/policy effectiveness in poor countries like Nepal. The present findings are intended to help in designing intervention strategies to reduce vulnerability of mixed agro-livestock smallholders and other rural people in developing countries to climate change.

  9. Using cognitive referents in making sense of teaching: A chemistry teacher's struggle to change assessment practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briscoe, Carol

    This qualitative case study focused on the role of cognitive referents in the sense-making process of one teacher as he attempted to change his classroom science assessment. The interpretations identify cultural myths, conceptual metonymys, as well as personally constructed beliefs as referents that constrained change. The teacher's cognitive struggle to make sense of assessment and his role as assessor are linked to conflicting referents he used in varying contexts including day-to-day assessment and summative assessment settings. The results of the study suggest that cognitive referents are important influences in driving how a teacher thinks about assessment and may constrain an individual teacher's implementation of innovative practices. Accordingly, identification of referents such as myths, their associated beliefs, and metonymic conceptual models that teachers use to make sense of their actions is an important first step in developing an understanding of constraints to educational change.

  10. Assessment of the impact of climate change on spatiotemporal variability of blue and green water resources under CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in a highly mountainous watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fazeli Farsani, Iman; Farzaneh, M. R.; Besalatpour, A. A.; Salehi, M. H.; Faramarzi, M.

    2018-04-01

    The variability and uncertainty of water resources associated with climate change are critical issues in arid and semi-arid regions. In this study, we used the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) to evaluate the impact of climate change on the spatial and temporal variability of water resources in the Bazoft watershed, Iran. The analysis was based on changes of blue water flow, green water flow, and green water storage for a future period (2010-2099) compared to a historical period (1992-2008). The r-factor, p-factor, R 2, and Nash-Sutcliff coefficients for discharge were 1.02, 0.89, 0.80, and 0.80 for the calibration period and 1.03, 0.76, 0.57, and 0.59 for the validation period, respectively. General circulation models (GCMs) under 18 emission scenarios from the IPCC's Fourth (AR4) and Fifth (AR5) Assessment Reports were fed into the SWAT model. At the sub-basin level, blue water tended to decrease, while green water flow tended to increase in the future scenario, and green water storage was predicted to continue its historical trend into the future. At the monthly time scale, the 95% prediction uncertainty bands (95PPUs) of blue and green water flows varied widely in the watershed. A large number (18) of climate change scenarios fell within the estimated uncertainty band of the historical period. The large differences among scenarios indicated high levels of uncertainty in the watershed. Our results reveal that the spatial patterns of water resource components and their uncertainties in the context of climate change are notably different between IPCC AR4 and AR5 in the Bazoft watershed. This study provides a strong basis for water supply-demand analyses, and the general analytical framework can be applied to other study areas with similar challenges.

  11. Categorical information for assessments of land use change. Opportunities and challenges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Levin, Gregor

    2014-01-01

    Access to detailed categorical information on land use and land cover (LULC) has increased significantly during recent years. In Denmark, free access to most categorical information (i.e. pre-classified spatially explicit information) gives opportunities for assessments and analyses of LULC-changes...... not elaborated with the aim to assess LULC-changes with definitions and registration methods changing over time and to categorical data not being spatially synchronized and consequently spatially overlapping (Ahlqvist and Shortridge, 2010; Levin et al., 2012). Presenting an assessment of annual LULC changes...... for Denmark from 1990-2013, which is part of Denmark’s emission inventory according to article 3(4) of the Kyoto protocol, this paper aims at elucidating opportunities, limitations and possible solutions for the application of categorical information. Changes between the LULC- types: settlement...

  12. The assessment of changes in brain volume using combined linear measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomori, J.M.; Steiner, I.; Melamed, E.; Cooper, G.

    1984-01-01

    All linear measurements employed for evaluation of brain atrophy, were performed on 148 computed tomograms of patients aged 28 to 84 without evidence of any nervous system disorder. These included size of lateral, third and fourth ventricles, width of the Sylvian and frontal interhemispheric fissures and cortical sulci and size of the pre-pontine cistern. Various parameters indicated decrease in brain mass with age. Since the atrophic process is a diffuse phenomenon, integration of several measurements evaluating separate brain regions was made. The bicaudate ratio and the Sylvian fissure ratio (representing both central and cortical atrophy) were combined arithmetically, resulting in a correlation of 0.6390 with age (p<0.0005). With a computed canonical correlation analysis: a formula was obtained which combined measurements of the lateral and third ventricles, the Sylvian fissure and the pre-pontine cistern. This formula yealded a correlation of 0.67795 (p<0.0005). These linear measurements will enable simple and reliable assessment of reduction in brain volume during the normal aging process and in disorders accompanied by brain atrophy. (orig.)

  13. Assessment report on NRP sub-theme 'National instruments for climate change policy'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verbruggen, H.; Nentjes, A.; Backhaus, J.G.; Jansen, H.M.A.

    1995-01-01

    Economic instruments for environmental protection feature in textbooks for their superior performance in terms of effectiveness and both static and dynamic efficiency, especially in cases characterized by a large number of polluters with large differences in abatement cost. These instruments are thus pre-eminently suited to be included in climate change policies. However, this proves to be very difficult as yet. The projects under this research sub-theme share a common interest in the complexities of implementing various types of economic instruments. The first project deals with the design of a European system of tradable emission rights. The second project is on the feasibility of ecological tax reform, with special reference to The Netherlands. The Climate Fund project, the third project, aims at investigating whether an international fund for side payments is an effective and efficient tool to reduce CO2 emissions. To that purpose, the world is divided into 9 regions. Finally, the fourth project uses an applied general equilibrium model to analyze the effectiveness and especially the income distributional effects of differently designed CO2 charges. The projects yield interesting results from which policy makers can benefit. There still are, however, blind spots. These and further research questions are identified. 4 refs

  14. Patronage and clientelism in the fourth gospel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abiola Mbamalu

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Patronage and clientelism as a social-scientific model is used in this article to read the fourth gospel. It is the contention of the article that this model affords the reader fresh vistas of meaning that otherwise would have remained unexplored. It is a reading amongst other readings and does not make pretensions to illuminate every segment of the fourth gospel. Rather, it selectively looks at areas where reading against the backdrop of a patron-client model illuminates the text. This reading sheds light on the greatest gift Jesus came to give, the gift of life as a beneficium, and affirms that the signs that Jesus performed are commendationes. Jesus brokers the blessings of the kingdom to those who believe in him on behalf of the father who is the ultimate patron. Jesus also challenges popular notions of patronage by performing acts reserved for slaves by, for example, washing the feet of his disciples. In hierdie artikel word die begrippe begunstiging en kliëntskap as ’n sosiaal-wetenskaplike model vir die verstaan van die vierde evangelie aangewend. Die doel van hierdie artikel is om aan die leser ’n nuwe begrip te bied wat andersins onontgin sou bly. Die teks van die vierde evangelie word vanuit een invalshoek onder ander invalshoeke gelees en daar word nie voorgegee dat elke segment van hierdie betrokke evangelie daardeur belig sal kan word nie. Daar word vanuit ’n selektiewe invalshoek gefokus op sekere dele waarin die teks verlig word deur perspektiewe wat deur die beskermheer-kliënt model gebied word. So ’n fokus beklemtoon juis die grootste geskenk wat Jesus Christus aan die mensdom gee, naamlik die gawe van lewe. Jesus gee namens die Vader, wie die uiteindelike beskermheer is, die seëninge van die koninkryk aan diegene wat in Hom glo. Terselfdertyd daag Jesus ook die aanvaarde model rakende die draagwydte van beskermheer-skap uit deur verskeie handelinge wat vir slawe gereserveer was, self te verrig, soos dit blyk uit die

  15. Assessing the impact of global changes on the surface water resources of Southwestern Nigeria

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ayeni, AO

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the relative impact of land use, land cover and climate change (LULCC) on basin runoff is necessary in assessing basin water stress. This assessment requires long-term observed rainfall time series and land-use/land-cover (LULC...

  16. 78 FR 56816 - Vidalia Onions Grown in Georgia; Change in Reporting and Assessment Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-16

    ... to regulation under the order and approximately 80 onion producers in the designated production area...; FV13-955-1 FIR] Vidalia Onions Grown in Georgia; Change in Reporting and Assessment Requirements AGENCY... the reporting and assessment requirements prescribed under the marketing order for Vidalia onions...

  17. Integrating Science and Management to Assess Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Stephen D. Handler; Maria K. Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Christopher W. Swanston

    2017-01-01

    We developed the ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach (EVAA) to help inform potential adaptation actions in response to a changing climate. EVAA combines multiple quantitative models and expert elicitation from scientists and land managers. In each of eight assessment areas, a panel of local experts determined potential vulnerability of forest ecosystems to...

  18. Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Bindi, M.; Webber, Heidi; Trnka, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Olesen, J.E.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Janssen, S.J.C.; Rivington, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J.R.; Stewart, D.; Verhagen, J.; Gaiser, T.; Palosuo, T.; Tao, F.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P.P.; Bartosová, L.; Asseng, S.

    2015-01-01

    The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess

  19. Challenges and Opportunities for Integrating Social Science Perspectives into Climate and Global Change Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, E. K.; Li, J.; Zycherman, A.

    2017-12-01

    Integration of social science into climate and global change assessments is fundamental for improving understanding of the drivers, impacts and vulnerability of climate change, and the social, cultural and behavioral challenges related to climate change responses. This requires disciplinary and interdisciplinary knowledge as well as integrational and translational tools for linking this knowledge with the natural and physical sciences. The USGCRP's Social Science Coordinating Committee (SSCC) is tasked with this challenge and is working to integrate relevant social, economic and behavioral knowledge into processes like sustained assessments. This presentation will discuss outcomes from a recent SSCC workshop, "Social Science Perspectives on Climate Change" and their applications to sustained assessments. The workshop brought academic social scientists from four disciplines - anthropology, sociology, geography and archaeology - together with federal scientists and program managers to discuss three major research areas relevant to the USGCRP and climate assessments: (1) innovative tools, methods, and analyses to clarify the interactions of human and natural systems under climate change, (2) understanding of factors contributing to differences in social vulnerability between and within communities under climate change, and (3) social science perspectives on drivers of global climate change. These disciplines, collectively, emphasize the need to consider socio-cultural, political, economic, geographic, and historic factors, and their dynamic interactions, to understand climate change drivers, social vulnerability, and mitigation and adaptation responses. They also highlight the importance of mixed quantitative and qualitative methods to explain impacts, vulnerability, and responses at different time and spatial scales. This presentation will focus on major contributions of the social sciences to climate and global change research. We will discuss future directions for

  20. A new economic assessment index for the impact of climate change on grain yield

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Wenjie; Chou, Jieming; Feng, Guolin

    2007-03-01

    The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community. This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional “yield impact of meteorological factor (YIMF)” or “yield impact of weather factor” to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore, the concept of the yield impact of climatic change (YICC), which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields (PUAY) of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China, and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.

  1. Climate change and plant health; Development of a conceptual frame-work for impact assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Breukers, M.L.H.

    2010-01-01

    This report presents a conceptual framework for systematic assessment of direct economic impacts of climate change on pest and disease management at the crop level. The framework evaluates and aggregates the effects, and subsequently impacts, of climate change on selected pests and diseases and

  2. Integrated assessment of farm level adaptation to climate change in agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandryk, M.

    2016-01-01

    The findings of the thesis allowed assessing plausible futures of agriculture in Flevoland around 2050 with insights in effective adaptation to climate change at different levels. Besides empirical findings, this thesis contributed methodologically to the portfolio of climate change impact and

  3. A New Economic Assessment Index for the Impact of Climate Change on Grain Yield

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community.This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional "yield impact of meteorological factor (YIMF)" or "yield impact of weather factor" to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore,the concept of the yield impact of climatic change (YICC), which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields (PUAY) of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China,and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.

  4. Assessment at North Carolina State University: Adapting to Change in the Workplace

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bresciani, Marilee J.; Griffiths, Jane H.; Rust, Jon P.

    2009-01-01

    Effectively introducing change in job responsibilities, particularly when dealing with tenured faculty, can be challenging. More often, additions or changes to work tasks, such as integrating assessment procedures into existing work tasks, requires employees to apply new and/or more complex knowledge, skill, and ability. When compared to…

  5. Suitability of texture features to assess changes in trabecular bone architecture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Veenland, JF; Grashuis, JL; Weinans, H

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the ability of texture features to assess changes in trabecular bone architecture as projected in radiographs. Micro-CT datasets of trabecular bone were processed to simulate different changes in architecture. Radiographs were simulated by projecting the...

  6. Assessment of readiness to change in patients with osteoarthritis. Development and application of a new questionnaire

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heuts, PHTG; de Bie, RA; Dijkstra, A; Aretz, K; Vlaeyen, JW; Schouten, HJA; Hopman-Rock, M; van Weel, C; van Schayck, CP; van Schayk, O.C P

    Objective: To develop a self- report measure for assessment of the stage of change in patients with osteoarthritis, in order to identify patients who would benefit from a self- management programme. Methods: According to the ' stages of change' model a questionnaire was developed with three groups

  7. The importance of assessing climate change vulnerability to address species conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karen E. Bagne; Megan M. Friggens; Sharon J. Coe; Deborah M. Finch

    2014-01-01

    Species conservation often prioritizes attention on a small subset of "special status" species at high risk of extinction, but actions based on current lists of special status species may not effectively moderate biodiversity loss if climate change alters threats. Assessments of climate change vulnerability may provide a method to enhance identification of...

  8. Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polly C. Buotte; David L. Peterson; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jeffrey A. Hicke

    2016-01-01

    Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability...

  9. A framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; Karin L. Riley; Christopher M. Oswalt; Susan J. Crocker; Gary W. Yohe

    2013-01-01

    Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C), but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and...

  10. Revisiting Kappa to account for change in the accuracy assessment of land-use models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van J.; Bregt, A.K.; Hagen-Zanker, A.

    2011-01-01

    Land-use change models are typically calibrated to reproduce known historic changes. Calibration results can then be assessed by comparing two datasets: the simulated land-use map and the actual land-use map at the same time. A common method for this is the Kappa statistic, which expresses the

  11. Template for assessing climate change impacts and management options: TACCIMO user guide version 2.2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emrys Treasure; Steven McNulty; Jennifer Moore Myers; Lisa Nicole Jennings

    2014-01-01

    The Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Management Options (TACCIMO) is a Web-based tool developed by the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture to assist Federal, State, and private land managers and planners with evaluation of climate change science implications for sustainable natural resource management. TACCIMO is a dynamic information...

  12. Scientific Integrity and Consensus in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, K.

    2017-12-01

    Scientific integrity is the hallmark of any assessment and is a paramount consideration in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment process. Procedures are in place for rigorous scientific review and to quantify confidence levels and uncertainty in the communication of key findings. However, the IPCC is unique in that its reports are formally accepted by governments through consensus agreement. This presentation will present the unique requirements of the IPCC intergovernmental assessment and discuss the advantages and challenges of its approach.

  13. [Eyeball structure changes in high myopic patients and their significance for forensic assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yi-Chang; Xia, Wen-Tao; Zhou, Xing-Tao; Liu, Rui-Jue; Bian, Shi-Zhong; Ying, Chong-Liang; Zhu, Guang-You

    2008-10-01

    There are irreversible eyeball structural changes in high myopic patients. These changes include axial length, corneal radius, anterior chamber depth, fundus degeneration, macula thickness, etc. There is a close relationship between the damage degree of visual function and these changes. The incidence of complications, such as vitreous opacity, posterior vitreous detachment, cataract, glaucoma, posterior staphyloma and retina detachment, is also highly related to the myopia diopter. More and more researches have indicated that the myopia diopter and the level of visual function are affected by multiple factors. It is promising to detect all of these changes by different kinds of methods, and to assess visual function through these changes. By clarifying these changes, it is also useful to distinguish traumatic damage from disease to provide evidence for forensic assessment of eye injuries.

  14. Perturbation theory for nematic liquid crystals of axially symmetric molecules: Evaluation of fourth rank orientational order parameter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, K.

    1993-11-01

    Using a statistical mechanical perturbation theory for isotropic-nematic transition we report a calculation of second and fourth rank orientation order parameters and thermodynamic properties for a model system of prolate ellipsoids of revolution parameterized by its length-to-width ratio. The influence of attractive potential represented by dispersion interaction on a variety of thermodynamic properties is analysed. Inclusion of fourth rank orientational order parameter in calculation slightly changes the transition parameter. (author). 7 refs, 1 tab

  15. Mandibular asymmetry and the fourth dimension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaban, Leonard B

    2009-03-01

    This paper represents more than 30 years of discussion and collaboration with Drs Joseph Murray and John Mulliken in an attempt to understand growth patterns over time (ie, fourth dimension) in patients with hemifacial microsomia (HFM). This is essential for the development of rational treatment protocols for children and adults with jaw asymmetry. Traditionally, HFM was thought of as a unilateral deformity, but it was recognized that 20% to 30% of patients had bilateral abnormalities. However, early descriptions of skeletal correction addressed almost exclusively lengthening of the short (affected) side of the face. Based on longitudinal clinical observations of unoperated HFM patients, we hypothesized that abnormal mandibular growth is the earliest skeletal manifestation and that restricted growth of the mandible plays a pivotal role in progressive distortion of both the ipsilateral and contralateral facial skeleton. This hypothesis explains the progressive nature of the asymmetry in patients with HFM and provides the rationale for surgical lengthening of the mandible in children to prevent end-stage deformity. During the past 30 years, we have learned that this phenomenon of progressive distortion of the adjacent and contralateral facial skeleton occurs with other asymmetric mandibular undergrowth (tumor resection, radiation therapy, or posttraumatic defects) and overgrowth (mandibular condylar hyperplasia) conditions. In this paper, I describe the progression of deformity with time in patients with mandibular asymmetry as a result of undergrowth and overgrowth. Understanding these concepts is critical for the development of rational treatment protocols for adults with end-stage asymmetry and for children to minimize secondary deformity.

  16. Proceedings of the Fourth Compton Symposium. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dermer, C.D.; Strickman, M.S.; Kurfess, J.D.

    1997-01-01

    These proceedings represent the papers presented at the Fourth Compton Symposium held in Williamsburg, Virginia in April, 1997. This symposium gives the latest development in gamma ray astronomy and summarizes the results obtained by the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory. One of the missions of the Observatory has been the study of physical processes taking place in the most dynamic sites in the Universe, including supernovae, novae, pulsars, black holes, active galaxies, and gamma-ray bursts. The energies covered range from hard X-ray to gamma-ray regions from 15 KeV to 30 GeV. The Burst and Transient Experiment (BASTE) measures brightness variations in gamma-ray bursts and solar flares. The Oriented Scintillation Spectroscopy Experiment (OSSE), measures spectral output of astrophysical sources in the 0.05 to 10 MeV range. The Imaging Compton Telescope (COMPTEL) detects gamma-rays and performs sky survey in the energy range 1 to 30 MeV. The Energetic Gamma Ray Experiment Telescope (EGRET) covers the broadest energy range from 20 MeV to 30 GeV. The papers presented result from all of the above. There were 249 papers presented and out of these, 6 have been abstracted for the Energy, Science and Technology database

  17. IAEA research contracts. Fourth annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1964-01-01

    This volume represents the fourth annual report on the results obtained under the Agency's research contract programme. During the short life of this programme, which is not quite six years old, a total investment of more than three million dollars has been made to support research in selected fields at institutes in 50 Member States. Extensive summaries are presented herein for all final reports relating to contracts which were completed during 1963. As it is the policy of the Agency to encourage publication in the open scientific literature of the results of work done under research contracts, a number of papers have also appeared in the appropriate journals - the Agency having been notified of 75 such publications in 1963. A complete list of references to these is given at the end of this report. The scientific data presented in the summaries of course remain the responsibility of the contractor. The Agency, however, is responsible for any additional observations. The reports presented are related to research in the field of radioactive waste management and environmental sciences; health physics and radiation protection; radiobiology; nuclear reactors physics and nuclear fuels; radioisotope applications in agriculture and medicine

  18. IAEA research contracts. Fourth annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1964-04-01

    This volume represents the fourth annual report on the results obtained under the Agency's research contract programme. During the short life of this programme, which is not quite six years old, a total investment of more than three million dollars has been made to support research in selected fields at institutes in 50 Member States. Extensive summaries are presented herein for all final reports relating to contracts which were completed during 1963. As it is the policy of the Agency to encourage publication in the open scientific literature of the results of work done under research contracts, a number of papers have also appeared in the appropriate journals - the Agency having been notified of 75 such publications in 1963. A complete list of references to these is given at the end of this report. The scientific data presented in the summaries of course remain the responsibility of the contractor. The Agency, however, is responsible for any additional observations. The reports presented are related to research in the field of radioactive waste management and environmental sciences; health physics and radiation protection; radiobiology; nuclear reactors physics and nuclear fuels; radioisotope applications in agriculture and medicine.

  19. Binational climate change vulnerability assessment of migratory birds in the Great Lakes Basins: Tools and impediments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert S Rempel

    Full Text Available Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna, wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina, and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina. We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species.

  20. Climate change adaptation impact cost assessment in France. Second phase report. September 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    Firstly, this report presents the context and challenges of works dealing with climate change adaptation assessment: observations and perspectives of climate change, concepts and definitions of adaptation to climate change, adaptation within national, European and international context, objectives and organisation of the France's inter-departmental Group. It describes the chosen methodology: hypothesis, methodological tools (climate model), bibliographical tool, and heat wave counting methodology. It discusses the present results, outlines the encountered difficulties and discusses the perspectives for future work

  1. Strategic Environmental Assessment Framework for Landscape-Based, Temporal Analysis of Wetland Change in Urban Environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sizo, Anton; Noble, Bram F; Bell, Scott

    2016-03-01

    This paper presents and demonstrates a spatial framework for the application of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) in the context of change analysis for urban wetland environments. The proposed framework is focused on two key stages of the SEA process: scoping and environmental baseline assessment. These stages are arguably the most information-intense phases of SEA and have a significant effect on the quality of the SEA results. The study aims to meet the needs for proactive frameworks to assess and protect wetland habitat and services more efficiently, toward the goal of advancing more intelligent urban planning and development design. The proposed framework, adopting geographic information system and remote sensing tools and applications, supports the temporal evaluation of wetland change and sustainability assessment based on landscape indicator analysis. The framework was applied to a rapidly developing urban environment in the City of Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, analyzing wetland change and land-use pressures from 1985 to 2011. The SEA spatial scale was rescaled from administrative urban planning units to an ecologically meaningful area. Landscape change assessed was based on a suite of indicators that were subsequently rolled up into a single, multi-dimensional, and easy to understand and communicate index to examine the implications of land-use change for wetland sustainability. The results show that despite the recent extremely wet period in the Canadian prairie region, land-use change contributed to increasing threats to wetland sustainability.

  2. Assessment of the impact of climate change and land cover change on landslide in Tana Toraja district

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardiansyah, M.; Rafiuddin, A.; Jadmiko, S. D.; Boer, R.

    2018-05-01

    Landslides are the frequent and widespread climate hazard in Indonesia that cause loss of human life and damage to property. Tana Toraja District is one of the regencies in Indonesia with the highest number of landslide events. Throughout the year 2016 there were at least 3 (three) landslide incidents that caused casualties and disconnection of transportation access. The study aimed to assess the impact of climate change and land cover change on landslide hazard in the Tana Toraja District. The study showed that in 2014 the number of landslide area with high risk was 53.3% and very high risk 14.4%, while in 2031 the high risk 56.4% and very high risk 12.7%. Thus, in high climate risk area, landslide adaptation and risk reduction strategies in the framework of climate change are necessary.

  3. Using Bayesian networks to assess the vulnerability of Hawaiian terrestrial biota to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortini, L.; Jacobi, J.; Price, J.; Vorsino, A.; Paxton, E.; Amidon, F.; 'Ohukani'ohi'a Gon, S., III; Koob, G.; Brink, K.; Burgett, J.; Miller, S.

    2012-12-01

    As the effects of climate change on individual species become increasingly apparent, there is a clear need for effective adaptation planning to prevent an increase in species extinctions worldwide. Given the limited understanding of species responses to climate change, vulnerability assessments and species distribution models (SDMs) have been two common tools used to jump-start climate change adaptation efforts. However, although these two approaches generally serve the same purpose of understanding species future responses to climate change, they have rarely mixed. In collaboration with research and management partners from federal, state and non-profit organizations, we are conducting a climate change vulnerability assessment for hundreds of plant and forest bird species of the Main Hawaiian Islands. This assessment is the first to comprehensively consider the potential threats of climate change to a significant portion of Hawaii's fauna and flora (over one thousand species considered) and thus fills a critical gap defined by natural resource scientists and managers in the region. We have devised a flexible approach that effectively integrates species distribution models into a vulnerability assessment framework that can be easily updated with improved models and data. This tailors our assessment approach to the Pacific Island reality of often limited and fragmented information on species and large future climate uncertainties, This vulnerability assessment is based on a Bayesian network-based approach that integrates multiple landscape (e.g., topographic diversity, dispersal barriers), species trait (e.g., generation length, fecundity) and expert-knowledge based information (e.g., capacity to colonize restored habitat) relevant to long-term persistence of species under climate change. Our presentation will highlight some of the results from our assessment but will mainly focus on the utility of the flexible approach we have developed and its potential

  4. Stress testing hydrologic models using bottom-up climate change assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, C.; Johnson, F.; Marshall, L. A.

    2017-12-01

    Bottom-up climate change assessment is a promising approach for understanding the vulnerability of a system to potential future changes. The technique has been utilised successfully in risk-based assessments of future flood severity and infrastructure vulnerability. We find that it is also an ideal tool for assessing hydrologic model performance in a changing climate. In this study, we applied bottom-up climate change to compare the performance of two different hydrologic models (an event-based and a continuous model) under increasingly severe climate change scenarios. This allowed us to diagnose likely sources of future prediction error in the two models. The climate change scenarios were based on projections for southern Australia, which indicate drier average conditions with increased extreme rainfall intensities. We found that the key weakness in using the event-based model to simulate drier future scenarios was the model's inability to dynamically account for changing antecedent conditions. This led to increased variability in model performance relative to the continuous model, which automatically accounts for the wetness of a catchment through dynamic simulation of water storages. When considering more intense future rainfall events, representation of antecedent conditions became less important than assumptions around (non)linearity in catchment response. The linear continuous model we applied may underestimate flood risk in a future climate with greater extreme rainfall intensity. In contrast with the recommendations of previous studies, this indicates that continuous simulation is not necessarily the key to robust flood modelling under climate change. By applying bottom-up climate change assessment, we were able to understand systematic changes in relative model performance under changing conditions and deduce likely sources of prediction error in the two models.

  5. Human Resources Administration: A School-Based Perspective. Fourth Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Richard

    2009-01-01

    Enhanced and updated, this Fourth Edition of Richard E. Smith's highly successful text examines the growing role of the principal in planning, hiring, staff development, supervision, and other human resource functions. The Fourth Edition includes new sections on ethics, induction, and the role of the mentor teacher. This edition also introduces…

  6. New singularities in nonrelativistic coupled channel scattering. II. Fourth order

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khuri, N.N.; Tsun Wu, T.

    1997-01-01

    We consider a two-channel nonrelativistic potential scattering problem, and study perturbation theory in fourth order for the forward amplitude. The main result is that the new singularity demonstrated in second order in the preceding paper I also occurs at the same point in fourth order. Its strength is again that of a pole. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

  7. Toward a fourth-generation light source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moncton, D. E.

    1999-01-01

    Historically, x-ray research has been propelled by the existence of urgent and compelling scientific questions and the push of powerful and exquisite source technology. These two factors have gone hand in hand since Rontgen discovered x-rays. Here we review the progress being made with existing third-generation synchrotron-radiation light sources and the prospects for a fourth-generation light source with dramatically improved laser-like beam characteristics. The central technology for high-brilliance x-ray beams is the x-ray undulator, a series of alternating-pole magnets situated above and below the particle beam. When the particle beam is oscillated by the alternating magnetic fields, a set of. interacting and interfering wave fronts is produced, which leads to an x-ray beam with extraordinary properties. Third-generation sources of light in the hard x-ray range have been constructed at three principal facilities: the European Synchrotrons Radiation Facility (ESRF) in France; the Super Photon Ring 8-GeV (or Spring-8) in Japan; and the Advanced Photon Source (APS) in the US. Undulator technology is also used on a number of low-energy machines for radiation in the ultraviolet and soft x-ray regimes. At the APS, these devices exceed all of our original expectations for beam brilliance, tunability, spectral range, and operational flexibility. Shown in Fig. 1 are the tuning curves of the first few harmonics, showing x-ray production from a few kV to better than 40 keV. High-brilliance radiation extends to over 100 keV

  8. Motivators and Barriers to Incorporating Climate Change-Related Health Risks in Environmental Health Impact Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shilu Tong

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change presents risks to health that must be addressed by both decision-makers and public health researchers. Within the application of Environmental Health Impact Assessment (EHIA, there have been few attempts to incorporate climate change-related health risks as an input to the framework. This study used a focus group design to examine the perceptions of government, industry and academic specialists about the suitability of assessing the health consequences of climate change within an EHIA framework. Practitioners expressed concern over a number of factors relating to the current EHIA methodology and the inclusion of climate change-related health risks. These concerns related to the broad scope of issues that would need to be considered, problems with identifying appropriate health indicators, the lack of relevant qualitative information that is currently incorporated in assessment and persistent issues surrounding stakeholder participation. It was suggested that improvements are needed in data collection processes, particularly in terms of adequate communication between environmental and health practitioners. Concerns were raised surrounding data privacy and usage, and how these could impact on the assessment process. These findings may provide guidance for government and industry bodies to improve the assessment of climate change-related health risks.

  9. Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Iain

    2018-06-13

    Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  10. Motivators and barriers to incorporating climate change-related health risks in environmental health impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Lyle R; Alderman, Katarzyna; Connell, Des; Tong, Shilu

    2013-03-22

    Climate change presents risks to health that must be addressed by both decision-makers and public health researchers. Within the application of Environmental Health Impact Assessment (EHIA), there have been few attempts to incorporate climate change-related health risks as an input to the framework. This study used a focus group design to examine the perceptions of government, industry and academic specialists about the suitability of assessing the health consequences of climate change within an EHIA framework. Practitioners expressed concern over a number of factors relating to the current EHIA methodology and the inclusion of climate change-related health risks. These concerns related to the broad scope of issues that would need to be considered, problems with identifying appropriate health indicators, the lack of relevant qualitative information that is currently incorporated in assessment and persistent issues surrounding stakeholder participation. It was suggested that improvements are needed in data collection processes, particularly in terms of adequate communication between environmental and health practitioners. Concerns were raised surrounding data privacy and usage, and how these could impact on the assessment process. These findings may provide guidance for government and industry bodies to improve the assessment of climate change-related health risks.

  11. Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Iain

    2018-06-01

    Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  12. Integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change and options for adaptation in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kramer, K.; Kuikman, P.J.; Veraart, J.A.; Van Walsum, P.E.V.; Westein, E.; Verhagen, A.; Daan, N.; Van Ierland, E.C.; Szoenyi, J.; De Groot, R.S.; Van Vliet, A.; Martens, P.; Amelung, B.; Huynen, M.

    2002-01-01

    In recent decades it has become increasingly clear that the global climate is warming and that regional climates are changing. The changes include alterations in rainfall pattern and intensities, sea level, and the frequencies of extreme weather events. Climate changes will not just have global effects, they will also occur regionally. The consequences will be felt and dealt with in our own region. In addition to studies at the European level, a study entitled 'An integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change and adaptation options in the Netherlands' was carried out

  13. Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

    2015-04-01

    Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

  14. An assessment of irrigation needs and crop yield for the United States under potential climate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brumbelow, Kelly; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2000-01-01

    Past assessments of climate change on U.S. agriculture have mostly focused on changes in crop yield. Few studies have included the entire conterminous U.S., and few studies have assessed changing irrigation requirements. None have included the effects of changing soil moisture characteristics as determined by changing climatic forcing. This study assesses changes in irrigation requirements and crop yields for five crops in the areas of the U.S. where they have traditionally been grown. Physiologically-based crop models are used to incorporate inputs of climate, soils, agricultural management, and drought stress tolerance. Soil moisture values from a macroscale hydrologic model run under a future climate scenario are used to initialize soil moisture content at the beginning of each growing season. Historical crop yield data is used to calibrate model parameters and determine locally acceptable drought stress as a management parameter. Changes in irrigation demand and crop yield are assessed for both means and extremes by comparing results for atmospheric forcing close to the present climate with those for a future climate scenario. Assessments using the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis General Circulation Model (CGCM1) indicate greater irrigation demands in the southern U.S. and decreased irrigation demands in the northern and western U.S. Crop yields typically increase except for winter wheat in the southern U.S. and corn. Variability in both irrigation demands and crop yields increases in most cases. Assessment results for the CGCM1 climate scenario are compared to those for the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research GCM (HadCM2) scenario for southwestern Georgia. The comparison shows significant differences in irrigation and yield trends, both in magnitude and direction. The differences reflect the high forecast uncertainty of current GCMs. Nonetheless, both GCMs indicate higher variability in future climatic forcing and, consequently

  15. Regional climate change scenarios for México

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Conde, C.; Estrada, F.; Martínez-Salvador, Begoña; Sánchez, O.; Gay, C.

    In this paper we present the regional climate change scenarios that were used for the assessment of the potential impacts in México on agriculture, livestock, forestry, hydrological resources as well as on human settlements and biodiversity. Those studies were developed for the Fourth Communication

  16. Climate change impact assessment in Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part II: a spatially resolved regional risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Rizzi, J; Zabeo, A; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impact assessment on water resources has received high international attention over the last two decades, due to the observed global warming and its consequences at the global to local scale. In particular, climate-related risks for groundwater and related ecosystems pose a great concern to scientists and water authorities involved in the protection of these valuable resources. The close link of global warming with water cycle alterations encourages research to deepen current knowledge on relationships between climate trends and status of water systems, and to develop predictive tools for their sustainable management, copying with key principles of EU water policy. Within the European project Life+ TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groundwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change), a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed in order to identify impacts from climate change on groundwater and associated ecosystems (e.g. surface waters, agricultural areas, natural environments) and to rank areas and receptors at risk in the high and middle Veneto and Friuli Plain (Italy). Based on an integrated analysis of impacts, vulnerability and risks linked to climate change at the regional scale, a RRA framework complying with the Sources-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) approach was defined. Relevant impacts on groundwater and surface waters (i.e. groundwater level variations, changes in nitrate infiltration processes, changes in water availability for irrigation) were selected and analyzed through hazard scenario, exposure, susceptibility and risk assessment. The RRA methodology used hazard scenarios constructed through global and high resolution model simulations for the 2071-2100 period, according to IPCC A1B emission scenario in order to produce useful indications for future risk prioritization and to support the addressing of adaptation measures, primarily Managed Artificial Recharge (MAR) techniques. Relevant

  17. Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, M S; Podesta, G; Fazey, I; Geeson, N; Hessel, R; Hubacek, K; Letson, D; Nainggolan, D; Prell, C; Rickenbach, M G; Ritsema, C; Schwilch, G; Stringer, L C; Thomas, A D

    2013-10-01

    Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change.

  18. A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Richard; Prestele, Reinhard; Verburg, Peter H.

    2018-05-01

    land change dynamics that can be applied in Earth system models and integrated assessment models.

  19. Multi-model approach to assess the impact of climate change on runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dams, J.; Nossent, J.; Senbeta, T. B.; Willems, P.; Batelaan, O.

    2015-10-01

    The assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology is subject to uncertainties related to the climate change scenarios, stochastic uncertainties of the hydrological model and structural uncertainties of the hydrological model. This paper focuses on the contribution of structural uncertainty of hydrological models to the overall uncertainty of the climate change impact assessment. To quantify the structural uncertainty of hydrological models, four physically based hydrological models (SWAT, PRMS and a semi- and fully distributed version of the WetSpa model) are set up for a catchment in Belgium. Each model is calibrated using four different objective functions. Three climate change scenarios with a high, mean and low hydrological impact are statistically perturbed from a large ensemble of climate change scenarios and are used to force the hydrological models. This methodology allows assessing and comparing the uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios with the uncertainty introduced by the hydrological model structure. Results show that the hydrological model structure introduces a large uncertainty on both the average monthly discharge and the extreme peak and low flow predictions under the climate change scenarios. For the low impact climate change scenario, the uncertainty range of the mean monthly runoff is comparable to the range of these runoff values in the reference period. However, for the mean and high impact scenarios, this range is significantly larger. The uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios is larger than the uncertainty due to the hydrological model structure for the low and mean hydrological impact scenarios, but the reverse is true for the high impact climate change scenario. The mean and high impact scenarios project increasing peak discharges, while the low impact scenario projects increasing peak discharges only for peak events with return periods larger than 1.6 years. All models suggest for all scenarios a

  20. Modelling Impacts of Climate Change: Case Studies using the New Generation of Erosion Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change is expected to impact upon a number of soil erosion drivers and processes, which should be taken into account when designing a modelling strategy. The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) (Parry et al., 2007; Solomon et al., 2007) reviews a...

  1. Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2010 - part 1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - integrated assessment modeling and valuation.

  2. A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herslund, Lise Byskov; Jalyer, Fatameh; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub- Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability...... in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional...... encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential...

  3. Formative assessment as a vehicle for changing classroom practice in a specific cultural context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jingping

    2015-09-01

    In this commentary, I interpret Xinying Yin and Gayle Ann Buck's collaborative action research from a social-cultural perspective. Classroom implementation of formative assessment is viewed as interaction between this assessment method and the local learning culture. I first identify Yin and Buck's definition of the formative assessment, and then analyze the role of formative assessment in the change of local learning culture. Based on the practice of Yin and Buck I emphasize the significance of their "bottom up" strategy to the teachers' epistemological change. I believe that this strategy may provide practicable solutions to current Chinese educational problems as well as a means for science educators to shift toward systematic professional development.

  4. How reliably can climate change and mitigation policy impacts on electric utilities be assessed?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Kopp, R.J.; Palmer, K.; De Witt, D.

    1993-01-01

    Numerous mechanisms link climate change and electric utilities. Electricity generation releases radiatively active trace substances (RATS). Significant changes in atmospheric concentration of RATS can lead to a change in regional and global climate regimes. Mitigation action designed to prevent or limit climate change is possible through curbing emissions. Climate change and related mitigation actions impact on electric utilities. Foresight in electric utility planning requires reliable predictions of how the utilities may be affected in the decades ahead. In this paper the impacts of climate change and mitigation policies are noted, and our ability to assess these is reviewed. To this end a suite of models exploring supply and demand questions have been developed. The overall conclusion of the study is that the demand-side uncertainties dominate other unknowns and need to be better characterized and understood. (author)

  5. Change within Purchasing and Supply Management Organisations – Assessing the Claims from Maturity Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm Andreasen, Peter; Gammelgaard, Britta

    2018-01-01

    It is a wide-held assumption that professional development and change within purchasing and supply management (PSM) organisations can be explained and guided by a maturity model. In this paper the guidance which the maturity model concept offers to understand a PSM organisation's performance...... an organisational change framework, composing 1) movement transitions, 2) scalability of change, 3) acceptability of change, and 4) the substantive element of change. The research found that extant PSM maturity models are too rigid for PSM managers to apply, and although maturity models are commonly accepted in PSM...... is assessed. The methodology is based on the outcomes of a literature review of PSM maturity models, development of an organisational change framework and the learning from three qualitative case studies. An alternative understanding of the development of the PSM organisation is offered through...

  6. A quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Zhiqiang; Pan, Zhihua; An, Pingli; Zhang, Jingting; Zhang, Jun; Pan, Yuying; Huang, Lei; Zhao, Hui; Han, Guolin; Wu, Dong; Wang, Jialin; Fan, Dongliang; Gao, Lin; Pan, Xuebiao

    2018-01-01

    Climate change has greatly affected agriculture. Agriculture is facing increasing risks as its sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change. Scientific assessment of climate change-induced agricultural risks could help to actively deal with climate change and ensure food security. However, quantitative assessment of risk is a difficult issue. Here, based on the IPCC assessment reports, a quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change is proposed. Risk is described as the product of the degree of loss and its probability of occurrence. The degree of loss can be expressed by the yield change amplitude. The probability of occurrence can be calculated by the new concept of climate change effect-accumulated frequency (CCEAF). Specific steps of this assessment method are suggested. This method is determined feasible and practical by using the spring wheat in Wuchuan County of Inner Mongolia as a test example. The results show that the fluctuation of spring wheat yield increased with the warming and drying climatic trend in Wuchuan County. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 3.5 and 64.6%, respectively, for the temperature maximum increase 88.3%, and its risk was 2.2%. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 14.1 and 56.1%, respectively, for the precipitation maximum decrease 35.2%, and its risk was 7.9%. For the comprehensive impacts of temperature and precipitation, the maximum yield decrease and its probability were 17.6 and 53.4%, respectively, and its risk increased to 9.4%. If we do not adopt appropriate adaptation strategies, the degree of loss from the negative impacts of multiclimatic factors and its probability of occurrence will both increase accordingly, and the risk will also grow obviously.

  7. Disentangling the change-alliance relationship: Observational assessment of the therapeutic alliance during change and stuck episodes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellado, Augusto; Suárez, Nicolás; Altimir, Carolina; Martínez, Claudio; Pérez, Janet; Krause, Mariane; Horvath, Adam

    2017-09-01

    The therapeutic alliance is considered the most robust process variable associated with positive therapeutic outcome in a variety of psychotherapeutic models [Alexander, L. B., & Luborsky, L. (1986). The Penn Helping Alliance Scales. In L. S. Greenberg & W. M. Pinsoff (Eds.), The psychotherapeutic process: A research handbook (pp. 325-356). New York: Guilford Press; Horvath, A. O., Gaston, L., & Luborsky, L. (1993). The alliance as predictor of benefits of counseling and therapy. In N. Miller, L. Luborsky, J. Barber, & J. P. Docherty (Eds.), Psychodynamic treatment research: A handbook for clinical practice (pp. 247-274). New York, NY: Basic Books; Horvath, A. O., Del Re, A. C., Flückiger, C., & Symonds, D. (2011). Alliance in individual psychotherapy. Psychotherapy, 48, 9-16; Orlinky, D., Grawe, K., & Parks, B. (1994). Process and outcome in psychotherapy: Noch einmal. In A. Bergin & J. S. Garfield (Eds.), Handbook of psychotherapy and behaviour change (4th ed., pp. 270-378). New York, NY: Wiley and Sons]. The relationship between alliance and outcome has traditionally been studied based on measures that assess these therapy factors at a global level. However, the specific variations of the alliance process and their association with therapy segments that are relevant for change have not yet been fully examined. The present study examines the variations in the therapeutic alliance in 73 significant in-session events: 35 change and 38 stuck episodes identified through the observation of 14 short-term therapies of different theoretical orientations. Variations in the alliance were assessed using the VTAS-SF [Shelef, K., & Diamond, G. (2008). Short form of the revised Vanderbilt Therapeutic Alliance Scale: Development, reliability, and validity. Psychotherapy Research, 18, 433-443]. Nested analyses (HLM) indicate a statistically significant better quality of the alliance during change episodes.

  8. Building a stakeholder network for the Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dukes, J. S.; Widhalm, M.

    2017-12-01

    The Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment (IN CCIA) is a stakeholder-informed, service-driven resource developed under the coordination of the Purdue Climate Change Research Center (PCCRC) and with involvement from a diverse mix of contributors throughout the state. The IN CCIA brings together the best available climate change research into a series of reports aimed at helping Hoosiers better understand climate change-related risks so they can prepare for challenges and capitalize on opportunities. The IN CCIA development process aims to 1) increase the dialogue about climate change across the state, 2) provide Indiana decision makers with accessible, credible climate impact information, and 3) build a network of experts and stakeholders to support ongoing assessment efforts and knowledge sharing. This presentation will report on our experience with developing and maintaining a diverse stakeholder network. We will describe our efforts to connect with stakeholders before, during, and after the development of assessment reports and share the top themes that emerged from our pre-assessment inquires and other interactions.

  9. Using children's literature to enhance views of nature of science and scientific attitude in fourth graders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hampton, Kathryn Walker

    This project was an effort to study the effect of integrating children's trade books into the fourth grade science curriculum on the students' views of the nature of science and their scientific attitude. The effect on the students' reading and language achievement, and science content knowledge was also analyzed. This was done by comparing the nature of science views and scientific attitudes, reading and language achievement scores, and the science grades of the treatment group, prior to and immediately following the intervention period, with the control group which did not participate in the integration of children's books. The science teacher's views on the nature of science and her attitude towards teaching science were also evaluated prior to and after the intervention. The selected trade books were evaluated for their coverage of nature of science aspects. Three intact classes of fourth grade students from a local elementary school were involved in the study along with their science and reading teacher. Two of the classes made up the experimental group and the remaining class served as the control group. All students were assessed prior to the intervention phase on their views of the nature of science and scientific attitudes. The experimental group was engaged in reading selected science trade books during their science class and study hall over a semester period. The results of the study showed a significant difference in the groups' initial reading and language achievement, which may have affected the lack of an effect from the intervention. The instrument selected to assess the student's views on the nature of science and scientific attitude (SAI II) was not reliable with this group. There was no significant difference on the students' science content knowledge as measured by their semester grade averages. The results from the teacher's response on the STAS II did indicate slight changes on her views on the nature of science. Sixty-nine of the eighty

  10. Governing climate change transnationally: assessing the evidence from a database of sixty initiatives

    OpenAIRE

    Harriet Bulkeley; Liliana Andonova; Karin Bäckstrand; Michele Betsill; Daniel Compagnon; Rosaleen Duffy; Ans Kolk; Matthew Hoffmann; David Levy; Peter Newell; Tori Milledge; Matthew Paterson; Philipp Pattberg; Stacy VanDeveer

    2012-01-01

    With this paper we present an analysis of sixty transnational governance initiatives and assess the implications for our understanding of the roles of public and private actors, the legitimacy of governance ‘beyond’ the state, and the North–South dimensions of governing climate change. In the first part of the paper we examine the notion of transnational governance and its applicability in the climate change arena, reflecting on the history and emergence of transnational governance initiative...

  11. Designing a global assessment of climate change on inland fishes and fisheries: knowns and needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paukert, Craig P.; Lynch, Abigail J.; Beard, T. Douglas; Chen, Yushun; Cooke, Steven J.; Cooperman, Michael S.; Cowx, Ian G.; Infante, Dana M.; Ibengwe, Lilian; Myers, Bonnie; Nguyen, Phu Hoa; Winfield, Ian J.

    2017-01-01

    To date, there are few comprehensive assessments of how climate change affects inland finfish, fisheries, and aquaculture at a global scale, but one is necessary to identify research needs and commonalities across regions and to help guide decision making and funding priorities. Broadly, the consequences of climate change on inland fishes will impact global food security, the livelihoods of people who depend on inland capture and recreational fisheries. However, understanding how climate change will affect inland fishes and fisheries has lagged behind marine assessments. Building from a North American inland fisheries assessment, we convened an expert panel from seven countries to provide a first-step to a framework for determining how to approach an assessment of how climate change may affect inland fishes, capture fisheries, and aquaculture globally. Starting with the small group helped frame the key questions (e.g., who is the audience? What is the best approach and spatial scale?). Data gaps identified by the group include: the tolerances of inland fisheries to changes in temperature, stream flows, salinity, and other environmental factors linked to climate change, and the adaptive capacity of fishes and fisheries to adjust to these changes. These questions are difficult to address, but long-term and large-scale datasets are becoming more readily available as a means to test hypotheses related to climate change. We hope this perspective will help researchers and decision makers identify research priorities and provide a framework to help sustain inland fish populations and fisheries for the diversity of users around the globe.

  12. The Fourth Revolution--Computers and Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bork, Alfred

    The personal computer is sparking a major historical change in the way people learn, a change that could lead to the disappearance of formal education as we know it. The computer can help resolve many of the difficulties now crippling education by enabling expert teachers and curriculum developers to prepare interactive and individualized…

  13. Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, R. F.; Wilby, R. L.; Brown, K.; Watkiss, P.; Betts, Richard A.; Murphy, James M.; Lowe, Jason A.

    2018-06-01

    A wide range of climate vulnerability and risk assessments have been implemented using different approaches at different scales, some with a broad multi-sectoral scope and others focused on single risks or sectors. This paper describes the novel approach to vulnerability and risk assessment which was designed and put into practice in the United Kingdom's Second Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2) so as to build upon its earlier assessment (CCRA1). First, we summarize and critique the CCRA1 approach, and second describe the steps taken in the CCRA2 approach in detail, providing examples of how each was applied in practice. Novel elements of the approach include assessment of both present day and future vulnerability, a focus on the urgency of adaptation action, and a structure focused around systems of receptors rather than conventional sectors. Both stakeholders and reviewers generally regarded the approach as successful in providing advice on current risks and future opportunities to the UK from climate change, and the fulfilment of statutory duty. The need for a well-supported and open suite of impact indicators going forward is highlighted. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  14. Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, R F; Wilby, R L; Brown, K; Watkiss, P; Betts, Richard A; Murphy, James M; Lowe, Jason A

    2018-06-13

    A wide range of climate vulnerability and risk assessments have been implemented using different approaches at different scales, some with a broad multi-sectoral scope and others focused on single risks or sectors. This paper describes the novel approach to vulnerability and risk assessment which was designed and put into practice in the United Kingdom's Second Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2) so as to build upon its earlier assessment (CCRA1). First, we summarize and critique the CCRA1 approach, and second describe the steps taken in the CCRA2 approach in detail, providing examples of how each was applied in practice. Novel elements of the approach include assessment of both present day and future vulnerability, a focus on the urgency of adaptation action, and a structure focused around systems of receptors rather than conventional sectors. Both stakeholders and reviewers generally regarded the approach as successful in providing advice on current risks and future opportunities to the UK from climate change, and the fulfilment of statutory duty. The need for a well-supported and open suite of impact indicators going forward is highlighted.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  15. Assessing the productivity change of water companies in England and Wales: A dynamic metafrontier approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molinos-Senante, María; Maziotis, Alexandros; Sala-Garrido, Ramon

    2017-07-15

    The assessment of productivity change and its drivers across water companies and over time is a powerful tool for both regulators and companies when setting water tariffs. Water and sewerage companies (WaSCs) and water only companies (WoCs) provide different services. Hence, their productivity change cannot directly be evaluated jointly. In this paper and for the first time, we provide a pioneering approach to assess and compare the dynamics of productivity change of WaSCs and WoCs. To achieve this, both the traditional Malmquist productivity index and the metafrontier Malmquist productivity index and its components are computed to assess the productivity change for a sample of English and Welsh water companies over the period 2001-2014. The findings from both indices indicate that productivity for both WaSCs and WoCs did not improve during this period, mainly due to the negative shift in the production frontier which offset the positive effect of efficiency change. It is also reported that the performance of the WoCs over time was slightly better than that of the WaSCs. Finally, our study provides some insights into the relationship between productivity change and the regulatory cycle. This information is essential to improve the regulation of water and sewerage services, contributing to the long-term sustainability of the urban water cycle. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Locating the fourth helix: Rethinking the role of civil society in developing smart learning cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borkowska, Katarzyna; Osborne, Michael

    2018-06-01

    In the Global North and increasingly in the Global South, smart city technologies are enthusiastically seen as a solution to urban problems and as an alternative to austerity. However, to move beyond a narrow technological focus, it is necessary to explore the degree to which smart initiatives are committed to building socially inclusive innovation with learning at its core. Using the particular case of the Future City Demonstrator Initiative in Glasgow, United Kingdom, the most high-profile initiative of its kind funded by government, the authors of this article assess the extent to which this smart city adopts such an inclusive approach. They use the quadruple helix model (government - academia - industry - civil society) as a starting point and develop an analytic framework composed of four strands: (1) supporting participation of citizens in decision-making; (2) implementing technological innovation which positions citizens as active users; (3) implementing technological innovation to benefit the community; and (4) evaluating technological innovation in the light of the experiences and needs of citizens. Unlike most analyses, the principal focus of this article is on the fourth element of the helix, civil society. The authors argue that Glasgow's rhetoric of smart urbanism, while aspiring to problem-solving, devalues certain principles of human agency. They emphasise that urban change, including the city's desire to become technologically innovative, would more fully facilitate active citizenship, social inclusion and learning opportunities for all if it were underpinned by the broader conceptions and frameworks of learning cities.

  17. Comparison of e-mail communication skills among first- and fourth-year dental students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oakley, Marnie; Horvath, Zsuzsa; Weinberg, Seth M; Bhatt, Jaya; Spallek, Heiko

    2013-11-01

    As e-mail and other forms of electronic communication increase in popularity, it is important for dental schools to consider a curriculum that prepares their graduates to understand and apply effective electronic communication strategies to their patients. Reflecting this shift in communication behavior, the American Medical Association has developed specific e-mail communication guidelines. Some behavioral examples in these guidelines include protecting patients' protected health information (PHI), ensuring proper record keeping, and using professional, courteous, and understandable language. In this study, a sample of first- and fourth-year dental students (n=160) at the University of Pittsburgh School of Dental Medicine participated in an assignment assessing their patient-provider e-mail communication skills. A rubric was used to evaluate and compare the data between dental student classes. The results reveal a generalized lack of compliance with several of these guidelines by both classes (e.g., failure to protect PHI), despite efforts to expose students to these concepts in the curriculum. In an effort to train emerging dentists to function in a rapidly changing technological environment, these findings suggest a need for growth and development of curricula and perhaps guidelines/recommendations for behavioral competencies regarding dental students' use of electronic communication in the patient care environment.

  18. Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Maria G; Orme, C David L; Suttle, K Blake; Mace, Georgina M

    2014-11-04

    Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk.

  19. Stages of change in audiology: comparison of three self-assessment measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingo, Elisabeth; Brännström, K Jonas; Andersson, Gerhard; Lunner, Thomas; Laplante-Lévesque, Ariane

    2017-07-01

    In a clinical setting, theories of health behaviour change could help audiologists and other hearing health care professionals understand the barriers that prevent people with hearing problems to seek audiological help. The transtheoretical (stages of change) model of health behaviour change is one of these theories. It describes a person's journey towards health behaviour change (e.g. seeking help or taking up rehabilitation) in separate stages: precontemplation, contemplation, preparation, action, and, finally, maintenance. A short self-assessment measure of stages of change may guide the clinician and facilitate first appointments. This article describes correlations between three stages of change measures of different lengths, one 24-item and two one-item. Participants were recruited through an online hearing screening study. Adults who failed the speech-in-noise recognition screening test and who had never undergone a hearing aid fitting were invited to complete further questionnaires online, including the three stages of change measures. In total, 224 adults completed the three measures. A majority of the participants were categorised as being in one of the information- and help-seeking stage of change (contemplation or preparation). The three stages of change measures were significantly correlated. Conclusions Our results support further investigating the use of a one-item measure to determine stages of change in people with hearing impairment.

  20. Study of cysticercosis in the fourth ventricle by CSF cinema MRI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Lianqing; Liu Lianxiang; Wu Jie; Wu Jing; Zhang Renshu; Wu Yujin

    1997-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the diagnostic value of cysticercosis in the fourth ventricle by CSF cinema MRI. Materials and methods: Nine patients with intraventricular cysticercosis in the fourth ventricle were studied. The diagnosis was confirmed by surgery in all cases. All of these patients were examined systematically before the operation and studied with CSF cinema MRI in mid sagittal section and finger-gated scan technique. Results: (1) The path of CSF flow was directly displayed. All cysticercosis presented as a filling defect, and a cyst with a smooth wall. (2) The ventricular compliance was normal in cysticercosis. (3) The cysticercosis in active stage was free in the fourth ventricle and could be rolled over, its shape might change slightly within a cardiac cycle. In the degenerative stage, its wall could adhere to the ependyma and obstruct the CSF flow. Conclusion: CSF cinema MRI can demonstrate the degree of obstruction and pattern of CSF flow in cysticercosis of the fourth ventricle, thereby providing useful information for proper management

  1. Asymptotic integration of a linear fourth order differential equation of Poincaré type

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anibal Coronel

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with the asymptotic behavior of nonoscillatory solutions of fourth order linear differential equation where the coefficients are perturbations of constants. We define a change of variable and deduce that the new variable satisfies a third order nonlinear differential equation. We assume three hypotheses. The first hypothesis is related to the constant coefficients and set up that the characteristic polynomial associated with the fourth order linear equation has simple and real roots. The other two hypotheses are related to the behavior of the perturbation functions and establish asymptotic integral smallness conditions of the perturbations. Under these general hypotheses, we obtain four main results. The first two results are related to the application of a fixed point argument to prove that the nonlinear third order equation has a unique solution. The next result concerns with the asymptotic behavior of the solutions of the nonlinear third order equation. The fourth main theorem is introduced to establish the existence of a fundamental system of solutions and to precise the formulas for the asymptotic behavior of the linear fourth order differential equation. In addition, we present an example to show that the results introduced in this paper can be applied in situations where the assumptions of some classical theorems are not satisfied.

  2. Assessments of regional climate change and its impacts in Northern Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omstedt, Anders; von Storch, Hans; Reckermann, Marcus; Quante, Markus

    2015-04-01

    Regional climate change assessments are urgently needed to complement the big picture with regional results and scenarios of higher resolution and with relevance for local decision makers and stakeholders. A new type of assessment report originated in the original BACC report of 2008 (BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea region) which has served as role model for other assessments published or in preparation. It represents an approach to assessing and making available current knowledge on regional climate change and its regional impacts on the physical, biogeochemical and biological environment (ecosystems, socio-economic sphere). Reports of this type which are available or underway are the original BACC book (2008), the second BACC book (2015), the climate report for the greater Hamburg area (2011), and the NOSCCA report (North Sea Climate Change Assessment) which is expected to be published in 2016. The assessments are produced by teams of scientists from the region, led by lead authors who recruit experts from relevant topics to contribute. The process is not externally funded and completely based on published scientific evidence, and not biased by political or economic interest groups. The BACC-type reports aim to bring together consolidated knowledge that has broad consensus in the scientific community, but also acknowledging issues for which contradicting opinions are found in the literature, so that no consensus can be reached ("consensus on dissensus"). An international steering committee is responsible for overlooking the process, and all manuscripts are anonymously peer-reviewed by independent international experts. An outstanding outreach aspect of these reports is the close collaboration with regional stakeholders (for the BACC reports: HELCOM, the intergovernmental Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission and the major regional science-policy interface in the Baltic Sea region; for the Hamburg climate report: the Hamburg city

  3. Curonian Lagoon drainage basin modelling and assessment of climate change impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalja Čerkasova

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Curonian Lagoon, which is the largest European coastal lagoon with a surface area of 1578 km2 and a drainage area of 100,458 km2, is facing a severe eutrophication problem. With its increasing water management difficulties, the need for a sophisticated hydrological model of the Curonian Lagoon's drainage area arose, in order to assess possible changes resulting from local and global processes. In this study, we developed and calibrated a sophisticated hydrological model with the required accuracy, as an initial step for the future development of a modelling framework that aims to correctly predict the movement of pesticides, sediments or nutrients, and to evaluate water-management practices. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to implement a model of the study area and to assess the impact of climate-change scenarios on the run-off of the Nemunas River and the Minija River, which are located in the Curonian Lagoons drainage basin. The models calibration and validation were performed using monthly streamflow data, and evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R2 and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE. The calculated values of the R2 and NSE for the Nemunas and Minija Rivers stations were 0.81 and 0.79 for the calibration, and 0.679 and 0.602 for the validation period. Two potential climate-change scenarios were developed within the general patterns of near-term climate projections, as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report: both pessimistic (substantial changes in precipitation and temperature and optimistic (insubstantial changes in precipitation and temperature. Both simulations produce similar general patterns in river-discharge change: a strong increase (up to 22% in the winter months, especially in February, a decrease during the spring (up to 10% and summer (up to 18%, and a slight increase during the autumn (up to 10%.

  4. Assessing vulnerability of giant pandas to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jia; Liu, Fang; Xue, Yadong; Zhang, Yu; Li, Diqiang

    2017-06-01

    Climate change might pose an additional threat to the already vulnerable giant panda ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca ). Effective conservation efforts require projections of vulnerability of the giant panda in facing climate change and proactive strategies to reduce emerging climate-related threats. We used the maximum entropy model to assess the vulnerability of giant panda to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China. The results of modeling included the following findings: (1) the area of suitable habitat for giant pandas was projected to decrease by 281 km 2 from climate change by the 2050s; (2) the mean elevation of suitable habitat of giant panda was predicted to shift 30 m higher due to climate change over this period; (3) the network of nature reserves protect 61.73% of current suitable habitat for the species, and 59.23% of future suitable habitat; (4) current suitable habitat mainly located in Chenggu, Taibai, and Yangxian counties (with a total area of 987 km 2 ) was predicted to be vulnerable. Assessing the vulnerability of giant panda provided adaptive strategies for conservation programs and national park construction. We proposed adaptation strategies to ameliorate the predicted impacts of climate change on giant panda, including establishing and adjusting reserves, establishing habitat corridors, improving adaptive capacity to climate change, and strengthening monitoring of giant panda.

  5. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T; Tuomenvirta, H [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  6. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H.; Posch, M.

    1995-01-01

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  7. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  8. Governing climate change transnationally: assessing the evidence from a database of sixty initiatives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bulkeley, H.; Andanova, L.; Bäckstrand, K.; Betsill, M.; Compagnon, D.; Duffy, R.; Kolk, A.; Hoffmann, M.; Levy, D.; Newell, P.; Milledge, T.; Paterson, M.; Pattberg, P.; VanDeveer, S.

    2012-01-01

    With this paper we present an analysis of sixty transnational governance initiatives and assess the implications for our understanding of the roles of public and private actors, the legitimacy of governance ‘beyond’ the state, and the North-South dimensions of governing climate change. In the first

  9. Governing Climate Change Transnationally: Assessing the Evidence from a Survey of Sixty Initiatives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bulkeley, H.; Andonova, L.; Backstrand, K.; Betsill, M.; Compagnon, D.; Duffy, R.; Levy, D.; Hofmann, M.; Kolk, A.; Paterson, M.; Pattberg, P.H.; VanDeveer, S.

    2012-01-01

    With this paper we present an analysis of sixty transnational governance initiatives and assess the implications for our understanding of the roles of public and private actors, the legitimacy of governance 'beyond' the state, and the North-South dimensions of governing climate change. In the first

  10. Climate Change Education: Quantitatively Assessing the Impact of a Botanical Garden as an Informal Learning Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellmann, Daniela; Bogner, Franz X.

    2013-01-01

    Although informal learning environments have been studied extensively, ours is one of the first studies to quantitatively assess the impact of learning in botanical gardens on students' cognitive achievement. We observed a group of 10th graders participating in a one-day educational intervention on climate change implemented in a botanical garden.…

  11. Applying Bayesian modelling to assess climate change effects on biofuel production

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Peter, C

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available the resilience of a strategy that meets the new South African national biofuel production target can be assessed in relation to climate change. Cross-disciplinary consideration of variables may be enhanced through the sensitivity analysis enabled by Bayesian...

  12. Changing Attitudes over Time: Assessing the Effectiveness of a Workplace Diversity Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Probst, Tahira M.

    2003-01-01

    Diversity is increasing within the United States, and higher education will likely play a key role in preparing people to function in this new environment. This study assessed the effectiveness of a semester-long psychology workplace diversity course at changing student levels of ethnocentrism and attitudes regarding gender roles; the disabled;…

  13. A spatially explicit and quantitative vulnerability assessment of ecosystem service change in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Metzger, M.J.; Schröter, D.; Leemans, R.; Cramer, W.

    2008-01-01

    Environmental change alters ecosystem functioning and may put the provision of services to human at risk. This paper presents a spatially explicit and quantitative assessment of the corresponding vulnerability for Europe, using a new framework designed to answer multidisciplinary policy relevant

  14. 78 FR 28118 - Vidalia Onions Grown in Georgia; Change in Reporting and Assessment Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-14

    ... onion producers in the designated production area. Small agricultural service firms, which include...; FV13-955-1 IR] Vidalia Onions Grown in Georgia; Change in Reporting and Assessment Requirements AGENCY... Vidalia onions grown in Georgia (order). The order regulates the handling of Vidalia onions grown in...

  15. Associating Changes in the Immune System with Clinical Diseases for Interpretation in Risk Assessment##

    Science.gov (United States)

    This overview is a revision to the unit originally published in 2004. While the basic tenants of immunotoxicity have not changed in the past 10 years, several publications have explored the application of immunotoxicological data to the risk assessment process. Therefore, the goa...

  16. Addressing Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Together: A Global Assessment of Agriculture and Forestry Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kongsager, Rico; Locatelli, Bruno; Chazarin, Florie

    2016-01-01

    to greenhouse gas emissions and removals, are vulnerable to climate variations, and form part of adaptive strategies for rural livelihoods. We assessed how climate change project design documents (PDDs) considered a joint contribution to adaptation and mitigation in forestry and agriculture in the tropics...

  17. Assessment of irrigated maize yield response to climate change scenarios in Portugal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yang, Chenyao; Fraga, Helder; Ieperen, van W.; Andrade Santos, João

    2017-01-01

    Maize is an important crop for the Portuguese agricultural sector. Future climate change, with warmer and dryer conditions in this Mediterranean environment, will challenge this high-water demanding crop. The present study aims at assessing the response of maize yield, growth cycle, seasonal water

  18. Assessing Statistical Change Indices in Selected Social Work Intervention Research Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham, Amanda D.; Huggins-Hoyt, Kimberly Y.; Pettus, Joelle

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: This study examined how evaluation and intervention research (IR) studies assessed statistical change to ascertain effectiveness. Methods: Studies from six core social work journals (2009-2013) were reviewed (N = 1,380). Fifty-two evaluation (n= 27) and intervention (n = 25) studies met the inclusion criteria. These studies were…

  19. An assessment of the impact of climate change on plant species ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study assesses the effects of climate change on vegetative species diversity exploring the usefulness of the Normalised Difference Water Index (NDWI) in predicting spatio-temporal diversity variations. The relationship between species richness and climatic variables of rainfall and temperature is explored based on ...

  20. An Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Plant Species ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Lazie

    Abstract. This study assesses the effects of climate change on vegetative species diversity ... and mitigation strategies that are ecosystem and species specific. .... seasonality and values below detection limit. ... Pre-whitening is the process of removing undesirable autocorrelations ..... vegetation, carbon and fire in California.

  1. Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

    2013-01-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

  2. Assessing institutional capacities to adapt to climate change - integrating psychological dimensions in the Adaptive Capacity Wheel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grothmann, T.; Grecksch, K.; Winges, M.; Siebenhüner, B.

    2013-03-01

    Several case studies show that "soft social factors" (e.g. institutions, perceptions, social capital) strongly affect social capacities to adapt to climate change. Many soft social factors can probably be changed faster than "hard social factors" (e.g. economic and technological development) and are therefore particularly important for building social capacities. However, there are almost no methodologies for the systematic assessment of soft social factors. Gupta et al. (2010) have developed the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW) for assessing the adaptive capacity of institutions. The ACW differentiates 22 criteria to assess six dimensions: variety, learning capacity, room for autonomous change, leadership, availability of resources, fair governance. To include important psychological factors we extended the ACW by two dimensions: "adaptation motivation" refers to actors' motivation to realise, support and/or promote adaptation to climate. "Adaptation belief" refers to actors' perceptions of realisability and effectiveness of adaptation measures. We applied the extended ACW to assess adaptive capacities of four sectors - water management, flood/coastal protection, civil protection and regional planning - in North Western Germany. The assessments of adaptation motivation and belief provided a clear added value. The results also revealed some methodological problems in applying the ACW (e.g. overlap of dimensions), for which we propose methodological solutions.

  3. Modelling regional land change scenarios to assess land abandonment and reforestation dynamics in the Pyrenees (France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas; Sohl, Terry L.; Reker, Ryan R.; Sayler, Kristi L.

    2015-01-01

    Over the last decades and centuries, European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations. Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes (land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities, have directly influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes. For the past sixty years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population. Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes, need spatially and temporally explicit models to identify areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment. This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains, based on historical LULC trends and a range of future socio-economic drivers. The proposed methodology considers local specificities of the Pyrenean valleys, sub-regional climate and topographical properties, and regional economic policies. Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of the scenario conditions. Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive (agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability. The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessments of where encroachment (e.g. colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable. This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions.

  4. Using a social justice and health framework to assess European climate change adaptation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boeckmann, Melanie; Zeeb, Hajo

    2014-11-28

    Climate change puts pressure on existing health vulnerabilities through higher frequency of extreme weather events, changes in disease vector distribution or exacerbated air pollution. Climate change adaptation policies may hold potential to reduce societal inequities. We assessed the role of public health and social justice in European climate change adaptation using a three-fold approach: a document analysis, a critical discourse analysis of a subgroup of strategies, and a ranking of strategies against our social justice framework. The ranking approach favored planning that includes various adaptation types, social issues and infrastructure changes. Themes on values identified in the five subgroup documents showed that risks are perceived as contradictory, technology is viewed as savior, responsibilities need to be negotiated, and social justice is advocated by only a few countries. Of 21 strategy documents assessed overall, those from Austria, England and Sweden received the highest scores in the ranking. Our qualitative assessment showed that in European adaptation planning, progress could still be made through community involvement into adaptation decisions, consistent consideration of social and demographic determinants, and a stronger link between infrastructural adaptation and the health sector. Overall, a social justice framework can serve as an evaluation guideline for adaptation policy documents.

  5. Assessing the impact of future climate change on groundwater recharge in Galicia-Costa, Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raposo, Juan Ramón; Dafonte, Jorge; Molinero, Jorge

    2013-03-01

    Climate change can impact the hydrological processes of a watershed and may result in problems with future water supply for large sections of the population. Results from the FP5 PRUDENCE project suggest significant changes in temperature and precipitation over Europe. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in the hydrological district of Galicia-Costa, Spain. Climate projections from two general circulation models and eight different regional climate models were used for the assessment and two climate-change scenarios were evaluated. Calibration and validation of the model were performed using a daily time-step in four representative catchments in the district. The effects on modeled mean annual groundwater recharge are small, partly due to the greater stomatal efficiency of plants in response to increased CO2 concentration. However, climate change strongly influences the temporal variability of modeled groundwater recharge. Recharge may concentrate in the winter season and dramatically decrease in the summer-autumn season. As a result, the dry-season duration may be increased on average by almost 30 % for the A2 emission scenario, exacerbating the current problems in water supply.

  6. Regulatory assessment of brand changes in the commercial tobacco product market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wayne, G Ferris; Connolly, G N

    2009-08-01

    Regulatory oversight of tobacco product design has gained momentum in the US and internationally. Appropriate standards for assessing commercial brands and characterising product features must be considered a priority. An area of potential concern is in-market design changes adopted within a single commercial brand over time. Internal tobacco industry documents were identified and used to assess internal discussion of product guidelines and practices regarding in-market brand changes. Commercial tobacco products undergo a constant process of revision in-market, beginning at the most basic level of physical product characteristics and components, and including every aspect of design. These revisions commonly exceed guidelines for acceptable product variance adopted within the industry. While consumer and market testing is conducted to ensure that products remain acceptable to users, explicit marketing often may not accompany brand changes. In the absence of such marketing, it should not be assumed that a brand remains unchanged. For manufacturers, assessment of competitor brands includes identification and analysis of non-routine changes; that is, those changes likely to significantly alter the character of a given brand. Regulators must adopt a similar practice in determining standards for product evaluation in the face of ongoing commercial product revision.

  7. Organizational readiness for implementing change: a psychometric assessment of a new measure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shea, Christopher M; Jacobs, Sara R; Esserman, Denise A; Bruce, Kerry; Weiner, Bryan J

    2014-01-10

    Organizational readiness for change in healthcare settings is an important factor in successful implementation of new policies, programs, and practices. However, research on the topic is hindered by the absence of a brief, reliable, and valid measure. Until such a measure is developed, we cannot advance scientific knowledge about readiness or provide evidence-based guidance to organizational leaders about how to increase readiness. This article presents results of a psychometric assessment of a new measure called Organizational Readiness for Implementing Change (ORIC), which we developed based on Weiner's theory of organizational readiness for change. We conducted four studies to assess the psychometric properties of ORIC. In study one, we assessed the content adequacy of the new measure using quantitative methods. In study two, we examined the measure's factor structure and reliability in a laboratory simulation. In study three, we assessed the reliability and validity of an organization-level measure of readiness based on aggregated individual-level data from study two. In study four, we conducted a small field study utilizing the same analytic methods as in study three. Content adequacy assessment indicated that the items developed to measure change commitment and change efficacy reflected the theoretical content of these two facets of organizational readiness and distinguished the facets from hypothesized determinants of readiness. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis in the lab and field studies revealed two correlated factors, as expected, with good model fit and high item loadings. Reliability analysis in the lab and field studies showed high inter-item consistency for the resulting individual-level scales for change commitment and change efficacy. Inter-rater reliability and inter-rater agreement statistics supported the aggregation of individual level readiness perceptions to the organizational level of analysis. This article provides evidence in

  8. Scale changes in air quality modelling and assessment of associated uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korsakissok, Irene

    2009-01-01

    After an introduction of issues related to a scale change in the field of air quality (existing scales for emissions, transport, turbulence and loss processes, hierarchy of data and models, methods of scale change), the author first presents Gaussian models which have been implemented within the Polyphemus modelling platform. These models are assessed by comparison with experimental observations and with other commonly used Gaussian models. The second part reports the coupling of the puff-based Gaussian model with the Eulerian Polair3D model for the sub-mesh processing of point sources. This coupling is assessed at the continental scale for a passive tracer, and at the regional scale for photochemistry. Different statistical methods are assessed

  9. Risk assessments of regional climate change over Europe: generation of probabilistic ensemble and uncertainty assessment for EURO-CODEX

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, J.; Kopp, R. E.

    2017-12-01

    Quantitative risk analysis of regional climate change is crucial for risk management and impact assessment of climate change. Two major challenges to assessing the risks of climate change are: CMIP5 model runs, which drive EURO-CODEX downscaling runs, do not cover the full range of uncertainty of future projections; Climate models may underestimate the probability of tail risks (i.e. extreme events). To overcome the difficulties, this study offers a viable avenue, where a set of probabilistic climate ensemble is generated using the Surrogate/Model Mixed Ensemble (SMME) method. The probabilistic ensembles for temperature and precipitation are used to assess the range of uncertainty covered by five bias-corrected simulations from the high-resolution (0.11º) EURO-CODEX database, which are selected by the PESETA (The Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up Analysis) III project. Results show that the distribution of SMME ensemble is notably wider than both distribution of raw ensemble of GCMs and the spread of the five EURO-CORDEX in RCP8.5. Tail risks are well presented by the SMME ensemble. Both SMME ensemble and EURO-CORDEX projections are aggregated to administrative level, and are integrated into impact functions of PESETA III to assess climate risks in Europe. To further evaluate the uncertainties introduced by the downscaling process, we compare the 5 runs from EURO-CORDEX with runs from the corresponding GCMs. Time series of regional mean, spatial patterns, and climate indices are examined for the future climate (2080-2099) deviating from the present climate (1981-2010). The downscaling processes do not appear to be trend-preserving, e.g. the increase in regional mean temperature from EURO-CORDEX is slower than that from the corresponding GCM. The spatial pattern comparison reveals that the differences between each pair of GCM and EURO-CORDEX are small in winter. In summer, the temperatures of EURO

  10. Text comprehension in Czech fourth-grade children with dyslexia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Špačková Klára

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In the Czech Republic, the concept of dyslexia is used as a global term for various developmental deficiencies relating to reading skills. The criteria used for dyslexia are not clear and intervention is solely focused on word reading training. Not much is known about the pattern and level of reading comprehension abilities among Czech readers. The study examines reading comprehension and its component skills (decoding and listening comprehension abilities in 32 Czech fourth-grade children with a formal diagnosis of dyslexia and their classmates (N=126. In decoding tests, the children with dyslexia surprisingly lagged behind most significantly in a task concerning speed and accuracy in context reading. Contrary to expectations, the children with dyslexia also showed inferiority in a listening comprehension task. In reading comprehension measures, in comparison to the typically developing readers, the children with dyslexia achieved the best results in a oral reading comprehension task. The results are discussed with respect to Czech counselling and educational practice and the need for changes in the current support system and terminology is stressed.

  11. Solar Energy Technologies Program Newsletter - Fourth Quarter 2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DOE Solar Energy Technologies Program

    2009-12-31

    The Fourth Quarter 2009 edition of the Solar Energy Technologies Program newsletter summarizes the activities for the past three months, funding opportunities, highlights from the national labs, and upcoming events.

  12. Properties of bound states containing fourth family quarks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bashiry, V; Azizi, K; Sultansoy, S

    2012-01-01

    The heavy fourth generation of quarks that have sufficiently small mixing with the three known SM families form hadrons. In the present work, we calculate the masses and decay constants of mesons containing either both quarks from the fourth generation or one from fourth family and the other from observed SM quarks, namely charm or bottom quark, in the framework of the QCD sum rules. In the calculations, the two gluon condensate diagrams as nonperturbative contributions are taken into account. The obtained numerical results are reduced to the known masses and decay constants of the b-bar b and c-bar c quarkonia, when the fourth family quark is replaced by the bottom or charm quark.

  13. Foreword The fourth International Conference on Gravitation and ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The fourth International Conference on Gravitation and Cosmology (ICGC ... acknowledge the hard work put up by faculty members and students here at IIT, Kharagpur and, in particular, by Akhilesh Singh, without whom much of our success ...

  14. zimbabwean fourth social workers conference and winter school

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    cswserver

    commercial 4.0 International License. ZIMBABWEAN FOURTH SOCIAL WORKERS CONFERENCE AND WINTER. SCHOOL. Noah Mudenda. The Council of Social Workers (CSW or Council) was established under the Social Workers Act 27:21 ...

  15. Oscillation criteria for fourth-order nonlinear delay dynamic equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunsong Qi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available We obtain criteria for the oscillation of all solutions to a fourth-order nonlinear delay dynamic equation on a time scale that is unbounded from above. The results obtained are illustrated with examples

  16. Quasipotential in the fourth order of perturbation theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bojkova, N.A.; Dvoeglazov, V.V.; Tyukhtyaev, Yu.N.; Faustov, R.N.

    1992-01-01

    The quasipotential in the fourth order of perturbation theory is calculated in the Coulomb gauge for the unequal mass particles. It could be used for the future calculations of energy spectra in two-body systems. 15 refs.; 1 fig

  17. Investing in self-reliance: IDRC's fourth annual public meeting ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-04-15

    Apr 15, 2016 ... Investing in self-reliance: IDRC's fourth annual public meeting ... to advance the Government of Canada's priorities in international development, in areas ... Flexible intellectual property rights lead to greater innovation in Africa.

  18. On a class of fourth order linear recurrence equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sui-Sun Cheng

    1984-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with sequences that satisfy a class of fourth order linear recurrence equations. Basic properties of such sequences are derived. In addition, we discuss the oscillatory and nonoscillatory behavior of such sequences.

  19. Fourth Generation Warfare: The Need for a Comprehensive Approach

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Benton, LeRoy D

    2008-01-01

    .... A definition of Fourth Generation Warfare is developed, based on Col. Thomas X. Hammes' writings. The definition is further developed to show relevance and applicability to current operations in the Long War on Terrorism...

  20. Life cycle assessment of stormwater management in the context of climate change adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brudler, Sarah; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    2016-01-01

    Expected increases in pluvial flooding, due to climatic changes, require large investments in the retrofitting of cities to keep damage at an acceptable level. Many cities have investigated the possibility of implementing stormwater management (SWM) systems which are multi-functional and consist...... of different elements interacting to achieve desired safety levels. Typically, an economic assessment is carried out in the planning phase, while environmental sustainability is given little or no attention. In this paper, life cycle assessment is used to quantify environmental impacts of climate change...... adaptation strategies. The approach is tested using a climate change adaptation strategy for a catchment in Copenhagen, Denmark. A stormwater management system, using green infrastructure and local retention measures in combination with planned routing of stormwater on the surfaces to manage runoff...

  1. Changes in alcohol consumption between 2009 and 2014 assessed with the AUDIT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Källmén, Håkan; Wennberg, P; Ramstedt, M; Hallgren, M

    2015-06-01

    Alcohol habits in Sweden, assessed as sales and estimates of unrecorded consumption, have changed since joining the EU. Earlier studies using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) showed that reported consumption is consistent with sales data, which makes it possible to assess consumption according to sex and age. This study reports the changes in alcohol habits between 2009 and 2014, a period starting a couple of years after Sweden joined the EU. The AUDIT was sent to a random sample of the Swedish population aged between 17 and 80 years old. No statistically significant changes were shown in six age and sex groups. Alcohol habits have stabilised in Sweden but on a higher consumption level than before. © 2015 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

  2. Fourth annual report of the Canadian nuclear fuel waste management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosinger, E.L.J.; Dixon, R.S.

    1982-12-01

    This report, the fourth of a series of annual reports, reviews the progress that has been made in the research and development program for the safe management and disposal of Canada's nuclear fuel waste. The report summarizes activities over the past year in the following areas: public interaction, used fuel storage and transportation, immobilization of used fuel and fuel recycle waste, geoscience research associated with deep underground disposal, environmental research, environmental and safety assessment

  3. Report of the Fourth international workshop on human chromosome 18 mapping 1996

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silverman, G.A.; Overhauser, J.; Gerken, S.; Aburomia, R.; O'Connell, P.; Krauter, K.S.; Detera-Wadleigh, S.D.; Yoshikawa, T.; Collins, A.R.; Geurts van Kessel, A.

    1996-01-01

    The fourth international workshop on human chromosome 18 mapping was held in Boston, Massachusetts, USA on October 7-9, 1996. The workshop was attended by 34 participants from 7 countries. The goals of the workshop were to (1) generate integrated genetic and physical maps, (2) update the transcriptional map, (3) assess the syntenic relationships between human chromosome 18 and the mouse genome, and (4) establish a chromosome 18 web site

  4. Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world-The Roskilde recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selck, Henriette; Adamsen, Peter B; Backhaus, Thomas; Banta, Gary T; Bruce, Peter K H; Burton, G Allen; Butts, Michael B; Boegh, Eva; Clague, John J; Dinh, Khuong V; Doorn, Neelke; Gunnarsson, Jonas S; Hauggaard-Nielsen, Henrik; Hazlerigg, Charles; Hunka, Agnieszka D; Jensen, John; Lin, Yan; Loureiro, Susana; Miraglia, Simona; Munns, Wayne R; Nadim, Farrokh; Palmqvist, Annemette; Rämö, Robert A; Seaby, Lauren P; Syberg, Kristian; Tangaa, Stine R; Thit, Amalie; Windfeld, Ronja; Zalewski, Maciej; Chapman, Peter M

    2017-01-01

    Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk-Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological context for assessments in human-modified systems; 8) assess risks and benefits to humans and the ecosystem and consider unintended consequences of management actions; 9) avoid excessive conservatism or possible underprotection resulting from sole reliance on binary, numerical benchmarks; and 10) develop adaptive risk-management and regulatory goals based on ranges of uncertainty. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:7-16. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  5. Climate change and forests: Impacts and adaption. A regional assessment for the Western Ghats, India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ravindranath, N H; Sukumar, R [Indian Inst. of Science, Bangalore (India). Centre for Ecological Sciences; Deshingkar, P [Stockholm Environment Inst. (Sweden)

    1998-12-31

    Potential climate change over the next 50 to 100 years could have major impacts on tropical forests. Forests, particularly in the tropics, are subjected to anthropogenic pressures leading to degradation and loss of forest ecosystems. Given the significant dependence of local people and economies on forests in tropical and temperate countries, there is a need to assess the possible impacts of climate change and to develop adaption measures. The diversity of forest types in the Western Ghats ranges from wet evergreen and deciduous forest to dry thorn and montane forests with a wide range of annual rainfall regimes (from less than 65 cm to over 300 cm). The study was conducted in two regions of the Western Ghats; the Uttara Kannada district and the Nilgiris. Climate change projections for 2020 and 2050 were used in assessing the possible impacts on forests. In general, the `most likely` projections of climate change were an increase in mean temperature in the range of 0.3-1.0 deg C and an increase in precipitation of 3-8% over the study regions by the year 2050. The `worst case` scenario was an increase in temperature of 1 deg C and a decrease in precipitation by 8% by 2050. To assess the vegetational responses to climate change, a simple model based on present-day correlations between climatic (mean annual temperature and precipitation) and vegetation types for these regions was developed. Likely changes in the areas under different forest types were assessed for `moderate climate` sensitivity and central scaling factor (referred to as the `most likely scenario`) for the years 2020 and 2050, and `high climate` sensitivity and a lower scaling factor (the `worst case scenario`) for 2050 90 refs, 15 figs, 15 tabs

  6. Climate change and forests: Impacts and adaption. A regional assessment for the Western Ghats, India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ravindranath, N.H.; Sukumar, R. [Indian Inst. of Science, Bangalore (India). Centre for Ecological Sciences; Deshingkar, P. [Stockholm Environment Inst. (Sweden)

    1997-12-31

    Potential climate change over the next 50 to 100 years could have major impacts on tropical forests. Forests, particularly in the tropics, are subjected to anthropogenic pressures leading to degradation and loss of forest ecosystems. Given the significant dependence of local people and economies on forests in tropical and temperate countries, there is a need to assess the possible impacts of climate change and to develop adaption measures. The diversity of forest types in the Western Ghats ranges from wet evergreen and deciduous forest to dry thorn and montane forests with a wide range of annual rainfall regimes (from less than 65 cm to over 300 cm). The study was conducted in two regions of the Western Ghats; the Uttara Kannada district and the Nilgiris. Climate change projections for 2020 and 2050 were used in assessing the possible impacts on forests. In general, the `most likely` projections of climate change were an increase in mean temperature in the range of 0.3-1.0 deg C and an increase in precipitation of 3-8% over the study regions by the year 2050. The `worst case` scenario was an increase in temperature of 1 deg C and a decrease in precipitation by 8% by 2050. To assess the vegetational responses to climate change, a simple model based on present-day correlations between climatic (mean annual temperature and precipitation) and vegetation types for these regions was developed. Likely changes in the areas under different forest types were assessed for `moderate climate` sensitivity and central scaling factor (referred to as the `most likely scenario`) for the years 2020 and 2050, and `high climate` sensitivity and a lower scaling factor (the `worst case scenario`) for 2050 90 refs, 15 figs, 15 tabs

  7. Comparison of Flood Vulnerability Assessments to Climate Change by Construction Frameworks for a Composite Indicator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jong Seok Lee

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available As extreme weather conditions due to climate change can cause deadly flood damages all around the world, a role of the flood vulnerability assessment has become recognized as one of the preemptive measures in nonstructural flood mitigation strategies. Although the flood vulnerability is most commonly assessed by a composite indicator compiled from multidimensional phenomena and multiple conflicting criteria associated with floods, directly or indirectly, it has been often overlooked that the construction frameworks and processes can have a significant influence on the flood vulnerability indicator outcomes. This study has, therefore, compared the flood vulnerability ranking orders for the 54 administrative districts in the Nakdong River Watershed of the Korean Peninsula, ranked from composite indicators by different frameworks and multi-attribute utility functions for combining the three assessment components, such as exposure, sensitivity, and coping, presented in the IPCC Third Assessment Report. The results show that the different aggregation components and utility functions under the same proxy variable system can lead to larger volatility of flood vulnerability rankings than expected. It is concluded that the vulnerability indicator needs to be derived from all three assessment components by a multiplicative utility function for a desirable flood vulnerability assessment to climate change.

  8. Assessing institutional capacities to adapt to climate change: integrating psychological dimensions in the Adaptive Capacity Wheel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grothmann, T.; Grecksch, K.; Winges, M.; Siebenhüner, B.

    2013-12-01

    Several case studies show that social factors like institutions, perceptions and social capital strongly affect social capacities to adapt to climate change. Together with economic and technological development they are important for building social capacities. However, there are almost no methodologies for the systematic assessment of social factors. After reviewing existing methodologies we identify the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW) by Gupta et al. (2010), developed for assessing the adaptive capacity of institutions, as the most comprehensive and operationalised framework to assess social factors. The ACW differentiates 22 criteria to assess 6 dimensions: variety, learning capacity, room for autonomous change, leadership, availability of resources, fair governance. To include important psychological factors we extended the ACW by two dimensions: "adaptation motivation" refers to actors' motivation to realise, support and/or promote adaptation to climate; "adaptation belief" refers to actors' perceptions of realisability and effectiveness of adaptation measures. We applied the extended ACW to assess adaptive capacities of four sectors - water management, flood/coastal protection, civil protection and regional planning - in northwestern Germany. The assessments of adaptation motivation and belief provided a clear added value. The results also revealed some methodological problems in applying the ACW (e.g. overlap of dimensions), for which we propose methodological solutions.

  9. Exploring vegetation in the fourth dimension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Fraser J G

    2011-01-01

    Much ecological research focuses on changes in vegetation on spatial scales from stands to landscapes; however, capturing data on vegetation change over relevant timescales remains a challenge. Pollen analysis offers unrivalled access to data with global coverage over long timescales. Robust techniques have now been developed that enable pollen data to be converted into vegetation data in terms of individual taxa, plant communities or biomes, with the possibility of deriving from those data a range of plant attributes and ecological indicators. In this review, I discuss how coupling pollen with macrofossil, charcoal and genetic data opens up the extensive pollen databases to investigation of the drivers of vegetation change over time and also provides extensive data sets for testing hypotheses with wide ecological relevance. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Medical school accreditation in Australia: Issues involved in assessing major changes and new programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J. Field

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The Australian Medical Council (AMC is an independent company for quality assurance and quality improvement in medical education in Australia and New Zealand. Accreditation procedures for the 20 medical schools in these two countries are somewhat different for three different circumstances or stages of school development: existing medical schools, established courses undergoing major changes, and new schools. This paper will outline some issues involved in major changes to existing courses, and new medical school programs. Major changes have included change from a 6 year undergraduate course to a 5 year undergraduate course or 4 year graduate-entry course, introduction of a lateral graduate-entry stream, new domestic site of course delivery, offshore course delivery, joint program between two universities, and major change to curriculum. In the case of a major change assessment, accreditation of the new or revised course may be granted for a period up to two years after the full course has been implemented. In the assessment of proposals for introduction of new medical courses, six issues needing careful consideration have arisen: forward planning, academic staffing, adequate clinical experience, acceptable research program, adequacy of resources, postgraduate training program and employment.

  11. Assessing Land Use Change and Its Impact on Ecosystem Services in Northern Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunsanee Arunyawat

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Ecosystem services are highly vulnerable to a number of impacts due to the complex effects of human use of natural resources and subsequent land use change. Assessment of the impact of change in land use with respect to ecosystem services is necessary in order to implement appropriate land uses that enhance ecosystem services. This study analysed the impact of change in land use on ecosystem services using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST model to map and quantify a set of ecosystem services, namely sediment retention, water yield, carbon stock, and habitat quality, in northern Thailand, which has experienced substantial policy induced land use change. The study also assessed the changes in land use from 1989 to 2013 and their impact on overall ecosystem services using GIS. Increased rubber plantation cultivation and built-up areas resulting in reduced forest cover were the major changes found in land use in the area. The results of the study show a general decrease in ecosystem services for the study period in the watershed, in particular, a negative impact on ecosystem services was observed in agricultural areas. The study findings on spatial and temporal distribution of ecosystem services can help guide the development of appropriate land use options to enhance ecosystem services.

  12. The treatment of climate-driven environmental change and associated uncertainty in post-closure assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.

    1993-01-01

    The post-closure performance of radioactive waste repositories is influenced by a range of processes such as groundwater flow and fracture movement which are in turn affected by conditions in the surface environment. For deep repositories the period for which an assessment must be performed is in the order of 10 6 years. The geological record of the last 10 6 years shows that surface environmental conditions have varied considerably over such time-scales. A model of surface environmental change, known as TIME4, has been developed on behalf of the UK Department of the Environment for use with the probabilistic risk assessment code VANDAL. This paper describes the extent of surface environmental change, discusses possible driving mechanisms for such changes and summarises the processes which have been incorporated within the TIME4 model. The underlying cause of change in surface environment sub-systems is inferred to be climate change but considerable uncertainty remains over the mechanisms of such change. Methods for treating these uncertainties are described. (author)

  13. Climate change vulnerability of native and alien freshwater fishes of California: a systematic assessment approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyle, Peter B; Kiernan, Joseph D; Crain, Patrick K; Quiñones, Rebecca M

    2013-01-01

    Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1) current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction) and (2) likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction). Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California's native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish species. It should be useful for setting conservation

  14. Climate change vulnerability of native and alien freshwater fishes of California: a systematic assessment approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter B Moyle

    Full Text Available Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1 current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction and (2 likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction. Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California's native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (<22°C are particularly likely to go extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish

  15. Theories of Career Development. Fourth Edition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osipow, Samuel H.; Fitzgerald, Louise F.

    This book describes and assesses the major theories of career choice and related research. The following are among the topics examined: history of vocational and career psychology (historical foundations; psychoanalytic conceptions of career choice; the Ginzberg, Ginsburg, Axelrad, and Herma theory; Tiedeman's developmental theory; recent history…

  16. Combined search for the quarks of a sequential fourth generation

    CERN Document Server

    Chatrchyan, Serguei; Sirunyan, Albert M; Tumasyan, Armen; Adam, Wolfgang; Aguilo, Ernest; Bergauer, Thomas; Dragicevic, Marko; Erö, Janos; Fabjan, Christian; Friedl, Markus; Fruehwirth, Rudolf; Ghete, Vasile Mihai; Hammer, Josef; Hörmann, Natascha; Hrubec, Josef; Jeitler, Manfred; Kiesenhofer, Wolfgang; Knünz, Valentin; Krammer, Manfred; Krätschmer, Ilse; Liko, Dietrich; Mikulec, Ivan; Pernicka, Manfred; Rahbaran, Babak; Rohringer, Christine; Rohringer, Herbert; Schöfbeck, Robert; Strauss, Josef; Taurok, Anton; Waltenberger, Wolfgang; Walzel, Gerhard; Widl, Edmund; Wulz, Claudia-Elisabeth; Mossolov, Vladimir; Shumeiko, Nikolai; Suarez Gonzalez, Juan; Bansal, Monika; Bansal, Sunil; Cornelis, Tom; De Wolf, Eddi A; Janssen, Xavier; Luyckx, Sten; Mucibello, Luca; Ochesanu, Silvia; Roland, Benoit; Rougny, Romain; Selvaggi, Michele; Staykova, Zlatka; Van Haevermaet, Hans; Van Mechelen, Pierre; Van Remortel, Nick; Van Spilbeeck, Alex; Blekman, Freya; Blyweert, Stijn; D'Hondt, Jorgen; Gonzalez Suarez, Rebeca; Kalogeropoulos, Alexis; Maes, Michael; Olbrechts, Annik; Van Doninck, Walter; Van Mulders, Petra; Van Onsem, Gerrit Patrick; Villella, Ilaria; Clerbaux, Barbara; De Lentdecker, Gilles; Dero, Vincent; Gay, Arnaud; Hreus, Tomas; Léonard, Alexandre; Marage, Pierre Edouard; Mohammadi, Abdollah; Reis, Thomas; Thomas, Laurent; Vander Marcken, Gil; Vander Velde, Catherine; Vanlaer, Pascal; Wang, Jian; Adler, Volker; Beernaert, Kelly; Cimmino, Anna; Costantini, Silvia; Garcia, Guillaume; Grunewald, Martin; Klein, Benjamin; Lellouch, Jérémie; Marinov, Andrey; Mccartin, Joseph; Ocampo Rios, Alberto Andres; Ryckbosch, Dirk; Strobbe, Nadja; Thyssen, Filip; Tytgat, Michael; Verwilligen, Piet; Walsh, Sinead; Yazgan, Efe; Zaganidis, Nicolas; Basegmez, Suzan; Bruno, Giacomo; Castello, Roberto; Ceard, Ludivine; Delaere, Christophe; Du Pree, Tristan; Favart, Denis; Forthomme, Laurent; Giammanco, Andrea; Hollar, Jonathan; Lemaitre, Vincent; Liao, Junhui; Militaru, Otilia; Nuttens, Claude; Pagano, Davide; Pin, Arnaud; Piotrzkowski, Krzysztof; Schul, Nicolas; Vizan Garcia, Jesus Manuel; Beliy, Nikita; Caebergs, Thierry; Daubie, Evelyne; Hammad, Gregory Habib; Alves, Gilvan; Correa Martins Junior, Marcos; De Jesus Damiao, Dilson; Martins, Thiago; Pol, Maria Elena; Henrique Gomes E Souza, Moacyr; Aldá Júnior, Walter Luiz; Carvalho, Wagner; Custódio, Analu; Melo Da Costa, Eliza; De Oliveira Martins, Carley; Fonseca De Souza, Sandro; Matos Figueiredo, Diego; Mundim, Luiz; Nogima, Helio; Oguri, Vitor; Prado Da Silva, Wanda Lucia; Santoro, Alberto; Soares Jorge, Luana; Sznajder, Andre; Souza Dos Anjos, Tiago; Bernardes, Cesar Augusto; De Almeida Dias, Flavia; Tomei, Thiago; De Moraes Gregores, Eduardo; Lagana, Caio; Da Cunha Marinho, Franciole; Mercadante, Pedro G; Novaes, Sergio F; Padula, Sandra; Genchev, Vladimir; Iaydjiev, Plamen; Piperov, Stefan; Rodozov, Mircho; Stoykova, Stefka; Sultanov, Georgi; Tcholakov, Vanio; Trayanov, Rumen; Vutova, Mariana; Dimitrov, Anton; Hadjiiska, Roumyana; Kozhuharov, Venelin; Litov, Leander; Pavlov, Borislav; Petkov, Peicho; Bian, Jian-Guo; Chen, Guo-Ming; Chen, He-Sheng; Jiang, Chun-Hua; Liang, Dong; Liang, Song; Meng, Xiangwei; Tao, Junquan; Wang, Jian; Wang, Xianyou; Wang, Zheng; Xiao, Hong; Xu, Ming; Zang, Jingjing; Zhang, Zhen; Asawatangtrakuldee, Chayanit; Ban, Yong; Guo, Shuang; Guo, Yifei; Li, Wenbo; Liu, Shuai; Mao, Yajun; Qian, Si-Jin; Teng, Haiyun; Wang, Dayong; Zhang, Linlin; Zhu, Bo; Zou, Wei; Avila, Carlos; Gomez, Juan Pablo; Gomez Moreno, Bernardo; Osorio Oliveros, Andres Felipe; Sanabria, Juan Carlos; Godinovic, Nikola; Lelas, Damir; Plestina, Roko; Polic, Dunja; Puljak, Ivica; Antunovic, Zeljko; Kovac, Marko; Brigljevic, Vuko; Duric, Senka; Kadija, Kreso; Luetic, Jelena; Morovic, Srecko; Attikis, Alexandros; Galanti, Mario; Mavromanolakis, Georgios; Mousa, Jehad; Nicolaou, Charalambos; Ptochos, Fotios; Razis, Panos A; Finger, Miroslav; Finger Jr, Michael; Assran, Yasser; Elgammal, Sherif; Ellithi Kamel, Ali; Khalil, Shaaban; Mahmoud, Mohammed; Radi, Amr; Kadastik, Mario; Müntel, Mait; Raidal, Martti; Rebane, Liis; Tiko, Andres; Eerola, Paula; Fedi, Giacomo; Voutilainen, Mikko; Härkönen, Jaakko; Heikkinen, Mika Aatos; Karimäki, Veikko; Kinnunen, Ritva; Kortelainen, Matti J; Lampén, Tapio; Lassila-Perini, Kati; Lehti, Sami; Lindén, Tomas; Luukka, Panja-Riina; Mäenpää, Teppo; Peltola, Timo; Tuominen, Eija; Tuominiemi, Jorma; Tuovinen, Esa; Ungaro, Donatella; Wendland, Lauri; Banzuzi, Kukka; Karjalainen, Ahti; Korpela, Arja; Tuuva, Tuure; Besancon, Marc; Choudhury, Somnath; Dejardin, Marc; Denegri, Daniel; Fabbro, Bernard; Faure, Jean-Louis; Ferri, Federico; Ganjour, Serguei; Givernaud, Alain; Gras, Philippe; Hamel de Monchenault, Gautier; Jarry, Patrick; Locci, Elizabeth; Malcles, Julie; Millischer, Laurent; Nayak, Aruna; Rander, John; Rosowsky, André; Shreyber, Irina; Titov, Maksym; Baffioni, Stephanie; Beaudette, Florian; Benhabib, Lamia; Bianchini, Lorenzo; Bluj, Michal; Broutin, Clementine; Busson, Philippe; Charlot, Claude; Daci, Nadir; Dahms, Torsten; Dobrzynski, Ludwik; Granier de Cassagnac, Raphael; Haguenauer, Maurice; Miné, Philippe; Mironov, Camelia; Naranjo, Ivo Nicolas; Nguyen, Matthew; Ochando, Christophe; Paganini, Pascal; Sabes, David; Salerno, Roberto; Sirois, Yves; Veelken, Christian; Zabi, Alexandre; Agram, Jean-Laurent; Andrea, Jeremy; Bloch, Daniel; Bodin, David; Brom, Jean-Marie; Cardaci, Marco; Chabert, Eric Christian; Collard, Caroline; Conte, Eric; Drouhin, Frédéric; Ferro, Cristina; Fontaine, Jean-Charles; Gelé, Denis; Goerlach, Ulrich; Juillot, Pierre; Le Bihan, Anne-Catherine; Van Hove, Pierre; Fassi, Farida; Mercier, Damien; Beauceron, Stephanie; Beaupere, Nicolas; Bondu, Olivier; Boudoul, Gaelle; Chasserat, Julien; Chierici, Roberto; Contardo, Didier; Depasse, Pierre; El Mamouni, Houmani; Fay, Jean; Gascon, Susan; Gouzevitch, Maxime; Ille, Bernard; Kurca, Tibor; Lethuillier, Morgan; Mirabito, Laurent; Perries, Stephane; Sordini, Viola; Tschudi, Yohann; Verdier, Patrice; Viret, Sébastien; Tsamalaidze, Zviad; Anagnostou, Georgios; Beranek, Sarah; Edelhoff, Matthias; Feld, Lutz; Heracleous, Natalie; Hindrichs, Otto; Jussen, Ruediger; Klein, Katja; Merz, Jennifer; Ostapchuk, Andrey; Perieanu, Adrian; Raupach, Frank; Sammet, Jan; Schael, Stefan; Sprenger, Daniel; Weber, Hendrik; Wittmer, Bruno; Zhukov, Valery; Ata, Metin; Caudron, Julien; Dietz-Laursonn, Erik; Duchardt, Deborah; Erdmann, Martin; Fischer, Robert; Güth, Andreas; Hebbeker, Thomas; Heidemann, Carsten; Hoepfner, Kerstin; Klingebiel, Dennis; Kreuzer, Peter; Magass, Carsten; Merschmeyer, Markus; Meyer, Arnd; Olschewski, Mark; Papacz, Paul; Pieta, Holger; Reithler, Hans; Schmitz, Stefan Antonius; Sonnenschein, Lars; Steggemann, Jan; Teyssier, Daniel; Weber, Martin; Bontenackels, Michael; Cherepanov, Vladimir; Erdogan, Yusuf; Flügge, Günter; Geenen, Heiko; Geisler, Matthias; Haj Ahmad, Wael; Hoehle, Felix; Kargoll, Bastian; Kress, Thomas; Kuessel, Yvonne; Nowack, Andreas; Perchalla, Lars; Pooth, Oliver; Sauerland, Philip; Stahl, Achim; Aldaya Martin, Maria; Behr, Joerg; Behrenhoff, Wolf; Behrens, Ulf; Bergholz, Matthias; Bethani, Agni; Borras, Kerstin; Burgmeier, Armin; Cakir, Altan; Calligaris, Luigi; Campbell, Alan; Castro, Elena; Costanza, Francesco; Dammann, Dirk; Diez Pardos, Carmen; Eckerlin, Guenter; Eckstein, Doris; Flucke, Gero; Geiser, Achim; Glushkov, Ivan; Gunnellini, Paolo; Habib, Shiraz; Hauk, Johannes; Hellwig, Gregor; Jung, Hannes; Kasemann, Matthias; Katsas, Panagiotis; Kleinwort, Claus; Kluge, Hannelies; Knutsson, Albert; Krämer, Mira; Krücker, Dirk; Kuznetsova, Ekaterina; Lange, Wolfgang; Lohmann, Wolfgang; Lutz, Benjamin; Mankel, Rainer; Marfin, Ihar; Marienfeld, Markus; Melzer-Pellmann, Isabell-Alissandra; Meyer, Andreas Bernhard; Mnich, Joachim; Mussgiller, Andreas; Naumann-Emme, Sebastian; Olzem, Jan; Perrey, Hanno; Petrukhin, Alexey; Pitzl, Daniel; Raspereza, Alexei; Ribeiro Cipriano, Pedro M; Riedl, Caroline; Ron, Elias; Rosin, Michele; Salfeld-Nebgen, Jakob; Schmidt, Ringo; Schoerner-Sadenius, Thomas; Sen, Niladri; Spiridonov, Alexander; Stein, Matthias; Walsh, Roberval; Wissing, Christoph; Autermann, Christian; Blobel, Volker; Draeger, Jula; Enderle, Holger; Erfle, Joachim; Gebbert, Ulla; Görner, Martin; Hermanns, Thomas; Höing, Rebekka Sophie; Kaschube, Kolja; Kaussen, Gordon; Kirschenmann, Henning; Klanner, Robert; Lange, Jörn; Mura, Benedikt; Nowak, Friederike; Peiffer, Thomas; Pietsch, Niklas; Rathjens, Denis; Sander, Christian; Schettler, Hannes; Schleper, Peter; Schlieckau, Eike; Schmidt, Alexander; Schröder, Matthias; Schum, Torben; Seidel, Markus; Sola, Valentina; Stadie, Hartmut; Steinbrück, Georg; Thomsen, Jan; Vanelderen, Lukas; Barth, Christian; Berger, Joram; Böser, Christian; Chwalek, Thorsten; De Boer, Wim; Descroix, Alexis; Dierlamm, Alexander; Feindt, Michael; Guthoff, Moritz; Hackstein, Christoph; Hartmann, Frank; Hauth, Thomas; Heinrich, Michael; Held, Hauke; Hoffmann, Karl-Heinz; Honc, Simon; Katkov, Igor; Komaragiri, Jyothsna Rani; Lobelle Pardo, Patricia; Martschei, Daniel; Mueller, Steffen; Müller, Thomas; Niegel, Martin; Nürnberg, Andreas; Oberst, Oliver; Oehler, Andreas; Ott, Jochen; Quast, Gunter; Rabbertz, Klaus; Ratnikov, Fedor; Ratnikova, Natalia; Röcker, Steffen; Scheurer, Armin; Schilling, Frank-Peter; Schott, Gregory; Simonis, Hans-Jürgen; Stober, Fred-Markus Helmut; Troendle, Daniel; Ulrich, Ralf; Wagner-Kuhr, Jeannine; Wayand, Stefan; Weiler, Thomas; Zeise, Manuel; Daskalakis, Georgios; Geralis, Theodoros; Kesisoglou, Stilianos; Kyriakis, Aristotelis; Loukas, Demetrios; Manolakos, Ioannis; Markou, Athanasios; Markou, Christos; Mavrommatis, Charalampos; Ntomari, Eleni; Gouskos, Loukas; Mertzimekis, Theodoros; Panagiotou, Apostolos; Saoulidou, Niki; Evangelou, Ioannis; Foudas, Costas; Kokkas, Panagiotis; Manthos, Nikolaos; Papadopoulos, Ioannis; Patras, Vaios; Bencze, Gyorgy; Hajdu, Csaba; Hidas, Pàl; Horvath, Dezso; Sikler, Ferenc; Veszpremi, Viktor; Vesztergombi, Gyorgy; Beni, Noemi; Czellar, Sandor; Molnar, Jozsef; Palinkas, Jozsef; Szillasi, Zoltan; Karancsi, János; Raics, Peter; Trocsanyi, Zoltan Laszlo; Ujvari, Balazs; Beri, Suman Bala; Bhatnagar, Vipin; Dhingra, Nitish; Gupta, Ruchi; Kaur, Manjit; Mehta, Manuk Zubin; Nishu, Nishu; Saini, Lovedeep Kaur; Sharma, Archana; Singh, Jasbir; Kumar, Ashok; Kumar, Arun; Ahuja, Sudha; Bhardwaj, Ashutosh; Choudhary, Brajesh C; Malhotra, Shivali; Naimuddin, Md; Ranjan, Kirti; Sharma, Varun; Shivpuri, Ram Krishen; Banerjee, Sunanda; Bhattacharya, Satyaki; Dutta, Suchandra; Gomber, Bhawna; Jain, Sandhya; Jain, Shilpi; Khurana, Raman; Sarkar, Subir; Sharan, Manoj; Abdulsalam, Abdulla; Choudhury, Rajani Kant; Dutta, Dipanwita; Kailas, Swaminathan; Kumar, Vineet; Mehta, Pourus; Mohanty, Ajit Kumar; Pant, Lalit Mohan; Shukla, Prashant; Aziz, Tariq; Ganguly, Sanmay; Guchait, Monoranjan; Maity, Manas; Majumder, Gobinda; Mazumdar, Kajari; Mohanty, Gagan Bihari; Parida, Bibhuti; Sudhakar, Katta; Wickramage, Nadeesha; Banerjee, Sudeshna; Dugad, Shashikant; Arfaei, Hessamaddin; Bakhshiansohi, Hamed; Etesami, Seyed Mohsen; Fahim, Ali; Hashemi, Majid; Hesari, Hoda; Jafari, Abideh; Khakzad, Mohsen; Mohammadi Najafabadi, Mojtaba; Paktinat Mehdiabadi, Saeid; Safarzadeh, Batool; Zeinali, Maryam; Abbrescia, Marcello; Barbone, Lucia; Calabria, Cesare; Chhibra, Simranjit Singh; Colaleo, Anna; Creanza, Donato; De Filippis, Nicola; De Palma, Mauro; Fiore, Luigi; Iaselli, Giuseppe; Lusito, Letizia; Maggi, Giorgio; Maggi, Marcello; Marangelli, Bartolomeo; My, Salvatore; Nuzzo, Salvatore; Pacifico, Nicola; Pompili, Alexis; Pugliese, Gabriella; Selvaggi, Giovanna; Silvestris, Lucia; Singh, Gurpreet; Venditti, Rosamaria; Zito, Giuseppe; Abbiendi, Giovanni; Benvenuti, Alberto; Bonacorsi, Daniele; Braibant-Giacomelli, Sylvie; Brigliadori, Luca; Capiluppi, Paolo; Castro, Andrea; Cavallo, Francesca Romana; Cuffiani, Marco; Dallavalle, Gaetano-Marco; Fabbri, Fabrizio; Fanfani, Alessandra; Fasanella, Daniele; Giacomelli, Paolo; Grandi, Claudio; Guiducci, Luigi; Marcellini, Stefano; Masetti, Gianni; Meneghelli, Marco; Montanari, Alessandro; Navarria, Francesco; Odorici, Fabrizio; Perrotta, Andrea; Primavera, Federica; Rossi, Antonio; Rovelli, Tiziano; Siroli, Gian Piero; Travaglini, Riccardo; Albergo, Sebastiano; Cappello, Gigi; Chiorboli, Massimiliano; Costa, Salvatore; Potenza, Renato; Tricomi, Alessia; Tuve, Cristina; Barbagli, Giuseppe; Ciulli, Vitaliano; Civinini, Carlo; D'Alessandro, Raffaello; Focardi, Ettore; Frosali, Simone; Gallo, Elisabetta; Gonzi, Sandro; Meschini, Marco; Paoletti, Simone; Sguazzoni, Giacomo; Tropiano, Antonio; Benussi, Luigi; Bianco, Stefano; Colafranceschi, Stefano; Fabbri, Franco; Piccolo, Davide; Fabbricatore, Pasquale; Musenich, Riccardo; Tosi, Silvano; Benaglia, Andrea; De Guio, Federico; Di Matteo, Leonardo; Fiorendi, Sara; Gennai, Simone; Ghezzi, Alessio; Malvezzi, Sandra; Manzoni, Riccardo Andrea; Martelli, Arabella; Massironi, Andrea; Menasce, Dario; Moroni, Luigi; Paganoni, Marco; Pedrini, Daniele; Ragazzi, Stefano; Redaelli, Nicola; Sala, Silvano; Tabarelli de Fatis, Tommaso; Buontempo, Salvatore; Carrillo Montoya, Camilo Andres; Cavallo, Nicola; De Cosa, Annapaola; Dogangun, Oktay; Fabozzi, Francesco; Iorio, Alberto Orso Maria; Lista, Luca; Meola, Sabino; Merola, Mario; Paolucci, Pierluigi; Azzi, Patrizia; Bacchetta, Nicola; Bisello, Dario; Branca, Antonio; Carlin, Roberto; Checchia, Paolo; Dorigo, Tommaso; Dosselli, Umberto; Gasparini, Fabrizio; Gasparini, Ugo; Gozzelino, Andrea; Kanishchev, Konstantin; Lacaprara, Stefano; Lazzizzera, Ignazio; Margoni, Martino; Meneguzzo, Anna Teresa; Pazzini, Jacopo; Pozzobon, Nicola; Ronchese, Paolo; Simonetto, Franco; Torassa, Ezio; Tosi, Mia; Vanini, Sara; Zotto, Pierluigi; Zumerle, Gianni; Gabusi, Michele; Ratti, Sergio P; Riccardi, Cristina; Torre, Paola; Vitulo, Paolo; Biasini, Maurizio; Bilei, Gian Mario; Fanò, Livio; Lariccia, Paolo; Lucaroni, Andrea; Mantovani, Giancarlo; Menichelli, Mauro; Nappi, Aniello; Romeo, Francesco; Saha, Anirban; Santocchia, Attilio; Spiezia, Aniello; Taroni, Silvia; Azzurri, Paolo; Bagliesi, Giuseppe; Boccali, Tommaso; Broccolo, Giuseppe; Castaldi, Rino; D'Agnolo, Raffaele Tito; Dell'Orso, Roberto; Fiori, Francesco; Foà, Lorenzo; Giassi, Alessandro; Kraan, Aafke; Ligabue, Franco; Lomtadze, Teimuraz; Martini, Luca; Messineo, Alberto; Palla, Fabrizio; Rizzi, Andrea; Serban, Alin Titus; Spagnolo, Paolo; Squillacioti, Paola; Tenchini, Roberto; Tonelli, Guido; Venturi, Andrea; Verdini, Piero Giorgio; Barone, Luciano; Cavallari, Francesca; Del Re, Daniele; Diemoz, Marcella; Fanelli, Cristiano; Grassi, Marco; Longo, Egidio; Meridiani, Paolo; Micheli, Francesco; Nourbakhsh, Shervin; Organtini, Giovanni; Paramatti, Riccardo; Rahatlou, Shahram; Sigamani, Michael; Soffi, Livia; Amapane, Nicola; Arcidiacono, Roberta; Argiro, Stefano; Arneodo, Michele; Biino, Cristina; Cartiglia, Nicolo; Costa, Marco; De Remigis, Paolo; Demaria, Natale; Mariotti, Chiara; Maselli, Silvia; Migliore, Ernesto; Monaco, Vincenzo; Musich, Marco; Obertino, Maria Margherita; Pastrone, Nadia; Pelliccioni, Mario; Potenza, Alberto; Romero, Alessandra; Sacchi, Roberto; Solano, Ada; Staiano, Amedeo; Vilela Pereira, Antonio; Belforte, Stefano; Candelise, Vieri; Cossutti, Fabio; Della Ricca, Giuseppe; Gobbo, Benigno; Marone, Matteo; Montanino, Damiana; Penzo, Aldo; Schizzi, Andrea; Heo, Seong Gu; Kim, Tae Yeon; Nam, Soon-Kwon; Chang, Sunghyun; Kim, Dong Hee; Kim, Gui Nyun; Kong, Dae Jung; Park, Hyangkyu; Ro, Sang-Ryul; Son, Dong-Chul; Son, Taejin; Kim, Jae Yool; Kim, Zero Jaeho; Song, Sanghyeon; Choi, Suyong; Gyun, Dooyeon; Hong, Byung-Sik; Jo, Mihee; Kim, Hyunchul; Kim, Tae Jeong; Lee, Kyong Sei; Moon, Dong Ho; Park, Sung Keun; Choi, Minkyoo; Kim, Ji Hyun; Park, Chawon; Park, Inkyu; Park, Sangnam; Ryu, Geonmo; Cho, Yongjin; Choi, Young-Il; Choi, Young Kyu; Goh, Junghwan; Kim, Min Suk; Kwon, Eunhyang; Lee, Byounghoon; Lee, Jongseok; Lee, Sungeun; Seo, Hyunkwan; Yu, Intae; Bilinskas, Mykolas Jurgis; Grigelionis, Ignas; Janulis, Mindaugas; Juodagalvis, Andrius; Castilla-Valdez, Heriberto; De La Cruz-Burelo, Eduard; Heredia-de La Cruz, Ivan; Lopez-Fernandez, Ricardo; Magaña Villalba, Ricardo; Martínez-Ortega, Jorge; Sánchez-Hernández, Alberto; Villasenor-Cendejas, Luis Manuel; Carrillo Moreno, Salvador; Vazquez Valencia, Fabiola; Salazar Ibarguen, Humberto Antonio; Casimiro Linares, Edgar; Morelos Pineda, Antonio; Reyes-Santos, Marco A; Krofcheck, David; Bell, Alan James; Butler, Philip H; Doesburg, Robert; Reucroft, Steve; Silverwood, Hamish; Ahmad, Muhammad; Ansari, Muhammad Hamid; Asghar, Muhammad Irfan; Hoorani, Hafeez R; Khalid, Shoaib; Khan, Wajid Ali; Khurshid, Taimoor; Qazi, Shamona; Shah, Mehar Ali; Shoaib, Muhammad; Bialkowska, Helena; Boimska, Bozena; Frueboes, Tomasz; Gokieli, Ryszard; Górski, Maciej; Kazana, Malgorzata; Nawrocki, Krzysztof; Romanowska-Rybinska, Katarzyna; Szleper, Michal; Wrochna, Grzegorz; Zalewski, Piotr; Brona, Grzegorz; Bunkowski, Karol; Cwiok, Mikolaj; Dominik, Wojciech; Doroba, Krzysztof; Kalinowski, Artur; Konecki, Marcin; Krolikowski, Jan; Almeida, Nuno; Bargassa, Pedrame; David Tinoco Mendes, Andre; Faccioli, Pietro; Ferreira Parracho, Pedro Guilherme; Gallinaro, Michele; Seixas, Joao; Varela, Joao; Vischia, Pietro; Belotelov, Ivan; Bunin, Pavel; Gavrilenko, Mikhail; Golutvin, Igor; Kamenev, Alexey; Karjavin, Vladimir; Kozlov, Guennady; Lanev, Alexander; Malakhov, Alexander; Moisenz, Petr; Palichik, Vladimir; Perelygin, Victor; Savina, Maria; Shmatov, Sergey; Smirnov, Vitaly; Volodko, Anton; Zarubin, Anatoli; Evstyukhin, Sergey; Golovtsov, Victor; Ivanov, Yury; Kim, Victor; Levchenko, Petr; Murzin, Victor; Oreshkin, Vadim; Smirnov, Igor; Sulimov, Valentin; Uvarov, Lev; Vavilov, Sergey; Vorobyev, Alexey; Vorobyev, Andrey; Andreev, Yuri; Dermenev, Alexander; Gninenko, Sergei; Golubev, Nikolai; Kirsanov, Mikhail; Krasnikov, Nikolai; Matveev, Viktor; Pashenkov, Anatoli; Tlisov, Danila; Toropin, Alexander; Epshteyn, Vladimir; Erofeeva, Maria; Gavrilov, Vladimir; Kossov, Mikhail; Lychkovskaya, Natalia; Popov, Vladimir; Safronov, Grigory; Semenov, Sergey; Stolin, Viatcheslav; Vlasov, Evgueni; Zhokin, Alexander; Belyaev, Andrey; Boos, Edouard; Bunichev, Viacheslav; Dubinin, Mikhail; Dudko, Lev; Gribushin, Andrey; Klyukhin, Vyacheslav; Kodolova, Olga; Lokhtin, Igor; Markina, Anastasia; Obraztsov, Stepan; Perfilov, Maxim; Petrushanko, Sergey; Popov, Andrey; Sarycheva, Ludmila; Savrin, Viktor; Snigirev, Alexander; Andreev, Vladimir; Azarkin, Maksim; Dremin, Igor; Kirakosyan, Martin; Leonidov, Andrey; Mesyats, Gennady; Rusakov, Sergey V; Vinogradov, Alexey; Azhgirey, Igor; Bayshev, Igor; Bitioukov, Sergei; Grishin, Viatcheslav; Kachanov, Vassili; Konstantinov, Dmitri; Korablev, Andrey; Krychkine, Victor; Petrov, Vladimir; Ryutin, Roman; Sobol, Andrei; Tourtchanovitch, Leonid; Troshin, Sergey; Tyurin, Nikolay; Uzunian, Andrey; Volkov, Alexey; Adzic, Petar; Djordjevic, Milos; Ekmedzic, Marko; Krpic, Dragomir; Milosevic, Jovan; Aguilar-Benitez, Manuel; Alcaraz Maestre, Juan; Arce, Pedro; Battilana, Carlo; Calvo, Enrique; Cerrada, Marcos; Chamizo Llatas, Maria; Colino, Nicanor; De La Cruz, Begona; Delgado Peris, Antonio; Domínguez Vázquez, Daniel; Fernandez Bedoya, Cristina; Fernández Ramos, Juan Pablo; Ferrando, Antonio; Flix, Jose; Fouz, Maria Cruz; Garcia-Abia, Pablo; Gonzalez Lopez, Oscar; Goy Lopez, Silvia; Hernandez, Jose M; Josa, Maria Isabel; Merino, Gonzalo; Puerta Pelayo, Jesus; Quintario Olmeda, Adrián; Redondo, Ignacio; Romero, Luciano; Santaolalla, Javier; Senghi Soares, Mara; Willmott, Carlos; Albajar, Carmen; Codispoti, Giuseppe; de Trocóniz, Jorge F; Brun, Hugues; Cuevas, Javier; Fernandez Menendez, Javier; Folgueras, Santiago; Gonzalez Caballero, Isidro; Lloret Iglesias, Lara; Piedra Gomez, Jonatan; Brochero Cifuentes, Javier Andres; Cabrillo, Iban Jose; Calderon, Alicia; Chuang, Shan-Huei; Duarte Campderros, Jordi; Felcini, Marta; Fernandez, Marcos; Gomez, Gervasio; Gonzalez Sanchez, Javier; Graziano, Alberto; Jorda, Clara; Lopez Virto, Amparo; Marco, Jesus; Marco, Rafael; Martinez Rivero, Celso; Matorras, Francisco; Munoz Sanchez, Francisca Javiela; Rodrigo, Teresa; Rodríguez-Marrero, Ana Yaiza; Ruiz-Jimeno, Alberto; Scodellaro, Luca; Sobron Sanudo, Mar; Vila, Ivan; Vilar Cortabitarte, Rocio; Abbaneo, Duccio; Auffray, Etiennette; Auzinger, Georg; Bachtis, Michail; Baillon, Paul; Ball, Austin; Barney, David; Benitez, Jose F; Bernet, Colin; Bianchi, Giovanni; Bloch, Philippe; Bocci, Andrea; Bonato, Alessio; Botta, Cristina; Breuker, Horst; Camporesi, Tiziano; Cerminara, Gianluca; Christiansen, Tim; Coarasa Perez, Jose Antonio; D'Enterria, David; Dabrowski, Anne; De Roeck, Albert; Di Guida, Salvatore; Dobson, Marc; Dupont-Sagorin, Niels; Elliott-Peisert, Anna; Frisch, Benjamin; Funk, Wolfgang; Georgiou, Georgios; Giffels, Manuel; Gigi, Dominique; Gill, Karl; Giordano, Domenico; Giunta, Marina; Glege, Frank; Gomez-Reino Garrido, Robert; Govoni, Pietro; Gowdy, Stephen; Guida, Roberto; Hansen, Magnus; Harris, Philip; Hartl, Christian; Harvey, John; Hegner, Benedikt; Hinzmann, Andreas; Innocente, Vincenzo; Janot, Patrick; Kaadze, Ketino; Karavakis, Edward; Kousouris, Konstantinos; Lecoq, Paul; Lee, Yen-Jie; Lenzi, Piergiulio; Lourenco, Carlos; Magini, Nicolo; Maki, Tuula; Malberti, Martina; Malgeri, Luca; Mannelli, Marcello; Masetti, Lorenzo; Meijers, Frans; Mersi, Stefano; Meschi, Emilio; Moser, Roland; Mozer, Matthias Ulrich; Mulders, Martijn; Musella, Pasquale; Nesvold, Erik; Orimoto, Toyoko; Orsini, Luciano; Palencia Cortezon, Enrique; Perez, Emmanuelle; Perrozzi, Luca; Petrilli, Achille; Pfeiffer, Andreas; Pierini, Maurizio; Pimiä, Martti; Piparo, Danilo; Polese, Giovanni; Quertenmont, Loic; Racz, Attila; Reece, William; Rodrigues Antunes, Joao; Rolandi, Gigi; Rovelli, Chiara; Rovere, Marco; Sakulin, Hannes; Santanastasio, Francesco; Schäfer, Christoph; Schwick, Christoph; Segoni, Ilaria; Sekmen, Sezen; Sharma, Archana; Siegrist, Patrice; Silva, Pedro; Simon, Michal; Sphicas, Paraskevas; Spiga, Daniele; Tsirou, Andromachi; Veres, Gabor Istvan; Vlimant, Jean-Roch; Wöhri, Hermine Katharina; Worm, Steven; Zeuner, Wolfram Dietrich; Bertl, Willi; Deiters, Konrad; Erdmann, Wolfram; Gabathuler, Kurt; Horisberger, Roland; Ingram, Quentin; Kaestli, Hans-Christian; König, Stefan; Kotlinski, Danek; Langenegger, Urs; Meier, Frank; Renker, Dieter; Rohe, Tilman; Sibille, Jennifer; Bäni, Lukas; Bortignon, Pierluigi; Buchmann, Marco-Andrea; Casal, Bruno; Chanon, Nicolas; Deisher, Amanda; Dissertori, Günther; Dittmar, Michael; Donegà, Mauro; Dünser, Marc; Eugster, Jürg; Freudenreich, Klaus; Grab, Christoph; Hits, Dmitry; Lecomte, Pierre; Lustermann, Werner; Marini, Andrea Carlo; Martinez Ruiz del Arbol, Pablo; Mohr, Niklas; Moortgat, Filip; Nägeli, Christoph; Nef, Pascal; Nessi-Tedaldi, Francesca; Pandolfi, Francesco; Pape, Luc; Pauss, Felicitas; Peruzzi, Marco; Ronga, Frederic Jean; Rossini, Marco; Sala, Leonardo; Sanchez, Ann - Karin; Starodumov, Andrei; Stieger, Benjamin; Takahashi, Maiko; Tauscher, Ludwig; Thea, Alessandro; Theofilatos, Konstantinos; Treille, Daniel; Urscheler, Christina; Wallny, Rainer; Weber, Hannsjoerg Artur; Wehrli, Lukas; Amsler, Claude; Chiochia, Vincenzo; De Visscher, Simon; Favaro, Carlotta; Ivova Rikova, Mirena; Millan Mejias, Barbara; Otiougova, Polina; Robmann, Peter; Snoek, Hella; Tupputi, Salvatore; Verzetti, Mauro; Chang, Yuan-Hann; Chen, Kuan-Hsin; Kuo, Chia-Ming; Li, Syue-Wei; Lin, Willis; Liu, Zong-Kai; Lu, Yun-Ju; Mekterovic, Darko; Singh, Anil; Volpe, Roberta; Yu, Shin-Shan; Bartalini, Paolo; Chang, Paoti; Chang, You-Hao; Chang, Yu-Wei; Chao, Yuan; Chen, Kai-Feng; Dietz, Charles; Grundler, Ulysses; Hou, George Wei-Shu; Hsiung, Yee; Kao, Kai-Yi; Lei, Yeong-Jyi; Lu, Rong-Shyang; Majumder, Devdatta; Petrakou, Eleni; Shi, Xin; Shiu, Jing-Ge; Tzeng, Yeng-Ming; Wan, Xia; Wang, Minzu; Adiguzel, Aytul; Bakirci, Mustafa Numan; Cerci, Salim; Dozen, Candan; Dumanoglu, Isa; Eskut, Eda; Girgis, Semiray; Gokbulut, Gul; Gurpinar, Emine; Hos, Ilknur; Kangal, Evrim Ersin; Karaman, Turker; Karapinar, Guler; Kayis Topaksu, Aysel; Onengut, Gulsen; Ozdemir, Kadri; Ozturk, Sertac; Polatoz, Ayse; Sogut, Kenan; Sunar Cerci, Deniz; Tali, Bayram; Topakli, Huseyin; Vergili, Latife Nukhet; Vergili, Mehmet; Akin, Ilina Vasileva; Aliev, Takhmasib; Bilin, Bugra; Bilmis, Selcuk; Deniz, Muhammed; Gamsizkan, Halil; Guler, Ali Murat; Ocalan, Kadir; Ozpineci, Altug; Serin, Meltem; Sever, Ramazan; Surat, Ugur Emrah; Yalvac, Metin; Yildirim, Eda; Zeyrek, Mehmet; Gülmez, Erhan; Isildak, Bora; Kaya, Mithat; Kaya, Ozlem; Ozkorucuklu, Suat; Sonmez, Nasuf; Cankocak, Kerem; Levchuk, Leonid; Bostock, Francis; Brooke, James John; Clement, Emyr; Cussans, David; Flacher, Henning; Frazier, Robert; Goldstein, Joel; Grimes, Mark; Heath, Greg P; Heath, Helen F; Kreczko, Lukasz; Metson, Simon; Newbold, Dave M; Nirunpong, Kachanon; Poll, Anthony; Senkin, Sergey; Smith, Vincent J; Williams, Thomas; Basso, Lorenzo; Bell, Ken W; Belyaev, Alexander; Brew, Christopher; Brown, Robert M; Cockerill, David JA; Coughlan, John A; Harder, Kristian; Harper, Sam; Jackson, James; Kennedy, Bruce W; Olaiya, Emmanuel; Petyt, David; Radburn-Smith, Benjamin Charles; Shepherd-Themistocleous, Claire; Tomalin, Ian R; Womersley, William John; Bainbridge, Robert; Ball, Gordon; Beuselinck, Raymond; Buchmuller, Oliver; Colling, David; Cripps, Nicholas; Cutajar, Michael; Dauncey, Paul; Davies, Gavin; Della Negra, Michel; Ferguson, William; Fulcher, Jonathan; Futyan, David; Gilbert, Andrew; Guneratne Bryer, Arlo; Hall, Geoffrey; Hatherell, Zoe; Hays, Jonathan; Iles, Gregory; Jarvis, Martyn; Karapostoli, Georgia; Lyons, Louis; Magnan, Anne-Marie; Marrouche, Jad; Mathias, Bryn; Nandi, Robin; Nash, Jordan; Nikitenko, Alexander; Papageorgiou, Anastasios; Pela, Joao; Pesaresi, Mark; Petridis, Konstantinos; Pioppi, Michele; Raymond, David Mark; Rogerson, Samuel; Rose, Andrew; Ryan, Matthew John; Seez, Christopher; Sharp, Peter; Sparrow, Alex; Stoye, Markus; Tapper, Alexander; Vazquez Acosta, Monica; Virdee, Tejinder; Wakefield, Stuart; Wardle, Nicholas; Whyntie, Tom; Chadwick, Matthew; Cole, Joanne; Hobson, Peter R; Khan, Akram; Kyberd, Paul; Leggat, Duncan; Leslie, Dawn; Martin, William; Reid, Ivan; Symonds, Philip; Teodorescu, Liliana; Turner, Mark; Hatakeyama, Kenichi; Liu, Hongxuan; Scarborough, Tara; Charaf, Otman; Henderson, Conor; Rumerio, Paolo; Avetisyan, Aram; Bose, Tulika; Fantasia, Cory; Heister, Arno; St John, Jason; Lawson, Philip; Lazic, Dragoslav; Rohlf, James; Sperka, David; Sulak, Lawrence; Alimena, Juliette; Bhattacharya, Saptaparna; Cutts, David; Ferapontov, Alexey; Heintz, Ulrich; Jabeen, Shabnam; Kukartsev, Gennadiy; Laird, Edward; Landsberg, Greg; Luk, Michael; Narain, Meenakshi; Nguyen, Duong; Segala, Michael; Sinthuprasith, Tutanon; Speer, Thomas; Tsang, Ka Vang; Breedon, Richard; Breto, Guillermo; Calderon De La Barca Sanchez, Manuel; Chauhan, Sushil; Chertok, Maxwell; Conway, John; Conway, Rylan; Cox, Peter Timothy; Dolen, James; Erbacher, Robin; Gardner, Michael; Houtz, Rachel; Ko, Winston; Kopecky, Alexandra; Lander, Richard; Miceli, Tia; Pellett, Dave; Ricci-tam, Francesca; Rutherford, Britney; Searle, Matthew; Smith, John; Squires, Michael; Tripathi, Mani; Vasquez Sierra, Ricardo; Andreev, Valeri; Cline, David; Cousins, Robert; Duris, Joseph; Erhan, Samim; Everaerts, Pieter; Farrell, Chris; Hauser, Jay; Ignatenko, Mikhail; Jarvis, Chad; Plager, Charles; Rakness, Gregory; Schlein, Peter; Traczyk, Piotr; Valuev, Vyacheslav; Weber, Matthias; Babb, John; Clare, Robert; Dinardo, Mauro Emanuele; Ellison, John Anthony; Gary, J William; Giordano, Ferdinando; Hanson, Gail; Jeng, Geng-Yuan; Liu, Hongliang; Long, Owen Rosser; Luthra, Arun; Nguyen, Harold; Paramesvaran, Sudarshan; Sturdy, Jared; Sumowidagdo, Suharyo; Wilken, Rachel; Wimpenny, Stephen; Andrews, Warren; Branson, James G; Cerati, Giuseppe Benedetto; Cittolin, Sergio; Evans, David; Golf, Frank; Holzner, André; Kelley, Ryan; Lebourgeois, Matthew; Letts, James; Macneill, Ian; Mangano, Boris; Padhi, Sanjay; Palmer, Christopher; Petrucciani, Giovanni; Pieri, Marco; Sani, Matteo; Sharma, Vivek; Simon, Sean; Sudano, Elizabeth; Tadel, Matevz; Tu, Yanjun; Vartak, Adish; Wasserbaech, Steven; Würthwein, Frank; Yagil, Avraham; Yoo, Jaehyeok; Barge, Derek; Bellan, Riccardo; Campagnari, Claudio; D'Alfonso, Mariarosaria; Danielson, Thomas; Flowers, Kristen; Geffert, Paul; Incandela, Joe; Justus, Christopher; Kalavase, Puneeth; Koay, Sue Ann; Kovalskyi, Dmytro; Krutelyov, Vyacheslav; Lowette, Steven; Mccoll, Nickolas; Pavlunin, Viktor; Rebassoo, Finn; Ribnik, Jacob; Richman, Jeffrey; Rossin, Roberto; Stuart, David; To, Wing; West, Christopher; Apresyan, Artur; Bornheim, Adolf; Chen, Yi; Di Marco, Emanuele; Duarte, Javier; Gataullin, Marat; Ma, Yousi; Mott, Alexander; Newman, Harvey B; Rogan, Christopher; Spiropulu, Maria; Timciuc, Vladlen; Veverka, Jan; Wilkinson, Richard; Xie, Si; Yang, Yong; Zhu, Ren-Yuan; Akgun, Bora; Azzolini, Virginia; Calamba, Aristotle; Carroll, Ryan; Ferguson, Thomas; Iiyama, Yutaro; Jang, Dong Wook; Liu, Yueh-Feng; Paulini, Manfred; Vogel, Helmut; Vorobiev, Igor; Cumalat, John Perry; Drell, Brian Robert; Edelmaier, Christopher; Ford, William T; Gaz, Alessandro; Heyburn, Bernadette; Luiggi Lopez, Eduardo; Smith, James; Stenson, Kevin; Ulmer, Keith; Wagner, Stephen Robert; Alexander, James; Chatterjee, Avishek; Eggert, Nicholas; Gibbons, Lawrence Kent; Heltsley, Brian; Khukhunaishvili, Aleko; Kreis, Benjamin; Mirman, Nathan; Nicolas Kaufman, Gala; Patterson, Juliet Ritchie; Ryd, Anders; Salvati, Emmanuele; Sun, Werner; Teo, Wee Don; Thom, Julia; Thompson, Joshua; Tucker, Jordan; Vaughan, Jennifer; Weng, Yao; Winstrom, Lucas; Wittich, Peter; Winn, Dave; Abdullin, Salavat; Albrow, Michael; Anderson, Jacob; Bauerdick, Lothar AT; Beretvas, Andrew; Berryhill, Jeffrey; Bhat, Pushpalatha C; Bloch, Ingo; Burkett, Kevin; Butler, Joel Nathan; Chetluru, Vasundhara; Cheung, Harry; Chlebana, Frank; Elvira, Victor Daniel; Fisk, Ian; Freeman, Jim; Gao, Yanyan; Green, Dan; Gutsche, Oliver; Hanlon, Jim; Harris, Robert M; Hirschauer, James; Hooberman, Benjamin; Jindariani, Sergo; Johnson, Marvin; Joshi, Umesh; Kilminster, Benjamin; Klima, Boaz; Kunori, Shuichi; Kwan, Simon; Leonidopoulos, Christos; Linacre, Jacob; Lincoln, Don; Lipton, Ron; Lykken, Joseph; Maeshima, Kaori; Marraffino, John Michael; Maruyama, Sho; Mason, David; McBride, Patricia; Mishra, Kalanand; Mrenna, Stephen; Musienko, Yuri; Newman-Holmes, Catherine; O'Dell, Vivian; Prokofyev, Oleg; Sexton-Kennedy, Elizabeth; Sharma, Seema; Spalding, William J; Spiegel, Leonard; Tan, Ping; Taylor, Lucas; Tkaczyk, Slawek; Tran, Nhan Viet; Uplegger, Lorenzo; Vaandering, Eric Wayne; Vidal, Richard; Whitmore, Juliana; Wu, Weimin; Yang, Fan; Yumiceva, Francisco; Yun, Jae Chul; Acosta, Darin; Avery, Paul; Bourilkov, Dimitri; Chen, Mingshui; Cheng, Tongguang; Das, Souvik; De Gruttola, Michele; Di Giovanni, Gian Piero; Dobur, Didar; Drozdetskiy, Alexey; Field, Richard D; Fisher, Matthew; Fu, Yu; Furic, Ivan-Kresimir; Gartner, Joseph; Hugon, Justin; Kim, Bockjoo; Konigsberg, Jacobo; Korytov, Andrey; Kropivnitskaya, Anna; Kypreos, Theodore; Low, Jia Fu; Matchev, Konstantin; Milenovic, Predrag; Mitselmakher, Guenakh; Muniz, Lana; Remington, Ronald; Rinkevicius, Aurelijus; Sellers, Paul; Skhirtladze, Nikoloz; Snowball, Matthew; Yelton, John; Zakaria, Mohammed; Gaultney, Vanessa; Hewamanage, Samantha; Lebolo, Luis Miguel; Linn, Stephan; Markowitz, Pete; Martinez, German; Rodriguez, Jorge Luis; Adams, Todd; Askew, Andrew; Bochenek, Joseph; Chen, Jie; Diamond, Brendan; Gleyzer, Sergei V; Haas, Jeff; Hagopian, Sharon; Hagopian, Vasken; Jenkins, Merrill; Johnson, Kurtis F; Prosper, Harrison; Veeraraghavan, Venkatesh; Weinberg, Marc; Baarmand, Marc M; Dorney, Brian; Hohlmann, Marcus; Kalakhety, Himali; Vodopiyanov, Igor; Adams, Mark Raymond; Anghel, Ioana Maria; Apanasevich, Leonard; Bai, Yuting; Bazterra, Victor Eduardo; Betts, Russell Richard; Bucinskaite, Inga; Callner, Jeremy; Cavanaugh, Richard; Evdokimov, Olga; Gauthier, Lucie; Gerber, Cecilia Elena; Hofman, David Jonathan; Khalatyan, Samvel; Lacroix, Florent; Malek, Magdalena; O'Brien, Christine; Silkworth, Christopher; Strom, Derek; Varelas, Nikos; Akgun, Ugur; Albayrak, Elif Asli; Bilki, Burak; Clarida, Warren; Duru, Firdevs; Griffiths, Scott; Merlo, Jean-Pierre; Mermerkaya, Hamit; Mestvirishvili, Alexi; Moeller, Anthony; Nachtman, Jane; Newsom, Charles Ray; Norbeck, Edwin; Onel, Yasar; Ozok, Ferhat; Sen, Sercan; Tiras, Emrah; Wetzel, James; Yetkin, Taylan; Yi, Kai; Barnett, Bruce Arnold; Blumenfeld, Barry; Bolognesi, Sara; Fehling, David; Giurgiu, Gavril; Gritsan, Andrei; Guo, Zijin; Hu, Guofan; Maksimovic, Petar; Rappoccio, Salvatore; Swartz, Morris; Whitbeck, Andrew; Baringer, Philip; Bean, Alice; Benelli, Gabriele; Grachov, Oleg; Kenny Iii, Raymond Patrick; Murray, Michael; Noonan, Daniel; Sanders, Stephen; Stringer, Robert; Tinti, Gemma; Wood, Jeffrey Scott; Zhukova, Victoria; Barfuss, Anne-Fleur; Bolton, Tim; Chakaberia, Irakli; Ivanov, Andrew; Khalil, Sadia; Makouski, Mikhail; Maravin, Yurii; Shrestha, Shruti; Svintradze, Irakli; Gronberg, Jeffrey; Lange, David; Wright, Douglas; Baden, Drew; Boutemeur, Madjid; Calvert, Brian; Eno, Sarah Catherine; Gomez, Jaime; Hadley, Nicholas John; Kellogg, Richard G; Kirn, Malina; Kolberg, Ted; Lu, Ying; Marionneau, Matthieu; Mignerey, Alice; Pedro, Kevin; Peterman, Alison; Skuja, Andris; Temple, Jeffrey; Tonjes, Marguerite; Tonwar, Suresh C; Twedt, Elizabeth; Apyan, Aram; Bauer, Gerry; Bendavid, Joshua; Busza, Wit; Butz, Erik; Cali, Ivan Amos; Chan, Matthew; Dutta, Valentina; Gomez Ceballos, Guillelmo; Goncharov, Maxim; Hahn, Kristan Allan; Kim, Yongsun; Klute, Markus; Krajczar, Krisztian; Li, Wei; Luckey, Paul David; Ma, Teng; Nahn, Steve; Paus, Christoph; Ralph, Duncan; Roland, Christof; Roland, Gunther; Rudolph, Matthew; Stephans, George; Stöckli, Fabian; Sumorok, Konstanty; Sung, Kevin; Velicanu, Dragos; Wenger, Edward Allen; Wolf, Roger; Wyslouch, Bolek; Yang, Mingming; Yilmaz, Yetkin; Yoon, Sungho; Zanetti, Marco; Cooper, Seth; Dahmes, Bryan; De Benedetti, Abraham; Franzoni, Giovanni; Gude, Alexander; Kao, Shih-Chuan; Klapoetke, Kevin; Kubota, Yuichi; Mans, Jeremy; Pastika, Nathaniel; Rusack, Roger; Sasseville, Michael; Singovsky, Alexander; Tambe, Norbert; Turkewitz, Jared; Cremaldi, Lucien Marcus; Kroeger, Rob; Perera, Lalith; Rahmat, Rahmat; Sanders, David A; Avdeeva, Ekaterina; Bloom, Kenneth; Bose, Suvadeep; Butt, Jamila; Claes, Daniel R; Dominguez, Aaron; Eads, Michael; Keller, Jason; Kravchenko, Ilya; Lazo-Flores, Jose; Malbouisson, Helena; Malik, Sudhir; Snow, Gregory R; Baur, Ulrich; Godshalk, Andrew; Iashvili, Ia; Jain, Supriya; Kharchilava, Avto; Kumar, Ashish; Shipkowski, Simon Peter; Smith, Kenneth; Alverson, George; Barberis, Emanuela; Baumgartel, Darin; Chasco, Matthew; Haley, Joseph; Nash, David; Trocino, Daniele; Wood, Darien; Zhang, Jinzhong; Anastassov, Anton; Kubik, Andrew; Mucia, Nicholas; Odell, Nathaniel; Ofierzynski, Radoslaw Adrian; Pollack, Brian; Pozdnyakov, Andrey; Schmitt, Michael Henry; Stoynev, Stoyan; Velasco, Mayda; Won, Steven; Antonelli, Louis; Berry, Douglas; Brinkerhoff, Andrew; Hildreth, Michael; Jessop, Colin; Karmgard, Daniel John; Kolb, Jeff; Lannon, Kevin; Luo, Wuming; Lynch, Sean; Marinelli, Nancy; Morse, David Michael; Pearson, Tessa; Planer, Michael; Ruchti, Randy; Slaunwhite, Jason; Valls, Nil; Wayne, Mitchell; Wolf, Matthias; Bylsma, Ben; Durkin, Lloyd Stanley; Hill, Christopher; Hughes, Richard; Kotov, Khristian; Ling, Ta-Yung; Puigh, Darren; Rodenburg, Marissa; Vuosalo, Carl; Williams, Grayson; Winer, Brian L; Adam, Nadia; Berry, Edmund; Elmer, Peter; Gerbaudo, Davide; Halyo, Valerie; Hebda, Philip; Hegeman, Jeroen; Hunt, Adam; Jindal, Pratima; Lopes Pegna, David; Lujan, Paul; Marlow, Daniel; Medvedeva, Tatiana; Mooney, Michael; Olsen, James; Piroué, Pierre; Quan, Xiaohang; Raval, Amita; Safdi, Ben; Saka, Halil; Stickland, David; Tully, Christopher; Werner, Jeremy Scott; Zuranski, Andrzej; Acosta, Jhon Gabriel; Brownson, Eric; Huang, Xing Tao; Lopez, Angel; Mendez, Hector; Oliveros, Sandra; Ramirez Vargas, Juan Eduardo; Zatserklyaniy, Andriy; Alagoz, Enver; Barnes, Virgil E; Benedetti, Daniele; Bolla, Gino; Bortoletto, Daniela; De Mattia, Marco; Everett, Adam; Hu, Zhen; Jones, Matthew; Koybasi, Ozhan; Kress, Matthew; Laasanen, Alvin T; Leonardo, Nuno; Maroussov, Vassili; Merkel, Petra; Miller, David Harry; Neumeister, Norbert; Shipsey, Ian; Silvers, David; Svyatkovskiy, Alexey; Vidal Marono, Miguel; Yoo, Hwi Dong; Zablocki, Jakub; Zheng, Yu; Guragain, Samir; Parashar, Neeti; Adair, Antony; Boulahouache, Chaouki; Ecklund, Karl Matthew; Geurts, Frank JM; Padley, Brian Paul; Redjimi, Radia; Roberts, Jay; Zabel, James; Betchart, Burton; Bodek, Arie; Chung, Yeon Sei; Covarelli, Roberto; de Barbaro, Pawel; Demina, Regina; Eshaq, Yossof; Garcia-Bellido, Aran; Goldenzweig, Pablo; Han, Jiyeon; Harel, Amnon; Miner, Daniel Carl; Vishnevskiy, Dmitry; Zielinski, Marek; Bhatti, Anwar; Ciesielski, Robert; Demortier, Luc; Goulianos, Konstantin; Lungu, Gheorghe; Malik, Sarah; Mesropian, Christina; Arora, Sanjay; Barker, Anthony; Chou, John Paul; Contreras-Campana, Christian; Contreras-Campana, Emmanuel; Duggan, Daniel; Ferencek, Dinko; Gershtein, Yuri; Gray, Richard; Halkiadakis, Eva; Hidas, Dean; Lath, Amitabh; Panwalkar, Shruti; Park, Michael; Patel, Rishi; Rekovic, Vladimir; Robles, Jorge; Rose, Keith; Salur, Sevil; Schnetzer, Steve; Seitz, Claudia; Somalwar, Sunil; Stone, Robert; Thomas, Scott; Cerizza, Giordano; Hollingsworth, Matthew; Spanier, Stefan; Yang, Zong-Chang; York, Andrew; Eusebi, Ricardo; Flanagan, Will; Gilmore, Jason; Kamon, Teruki; Khotilovich, Vadim; Montalvo, Roy; Osipenkov, Ilya; Pakhotin, Yuriy; Perloff, Alexx; Roe, Jeffrey; Safonov, Alexei; Sakuma, Tai; Sengupta, Sinjini; Suarez, Indara; Tatarinov, Aysen; Toback, David; Akchurin, Nural; Damgov, Jordan; Dragoiu, Cosmin; Dudero, Phillip Russell; Jeong, Chiyoung; Kovitanggoon, Kittikul; Lee, Sung Won; Libeiro, Terence; Roh, Youn; Volobouev, Igor; Appelt, Eric; Delannoy, Andrés G; Florez, Carlos; Greene, Senta; Gurrola, Alfredo; Johns, Willard; Johnston, Cody; Kurt, Pelin; Maguire, Charles; Melo, Andrew; Sharma, Monika; Sheldon, Paul; Snook, Benjamin; Tuo, Shengquan; Velkovska, Julia; Arenton, Michael Wayne; Balazs, Michael; Boutle, Sarah; Cox, Bradley; Francis, Brian; Goodell, Joseph; Hirosky, Robert; Ledovskoy, Alexander; Lin, Chuanzhe; Neu, Christopher; Wood, John; Yohay, Rachel; Gollapinni, Sowjanya; Harr, Robert; Karchin, Paul Edmund; Kottachchi Kankanamge Don, Chamath; Lamichhane, Pramod; Sakharov, Alexandre; Anderson, Michael; Belknap, Donald; Borrello, Laura; Carlsmith, Duncan; Cepeda, Maria; Dasu, Sridhara; Friis, Evan; Gray, Lindsey; Grogg, Kira Suzanne; Grothe, Monika; Hall-Wilton, Richard; Herndon, Matthew; Hervé, Alain; Klabbers, Pamela; Klukas, Jeffrey; Lanaro, Armando; Lazaridis, Christos; Leonard, Jessica; Loveless, Richard; Mohapatra, Ajit; Ojalvo, Isabel; Palmonari, Francesco; Pierro, Giuseppe Antonio; Ross, Ian; Savin, Alexander; Smith, Wesley H; Swanson, Joshua

    2012-01-01

    Results are presented from a search for a fourth generation of quarks produced singly or in pairs in a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5 inverse femtobarns recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC in 2011. A novel strategy has been developed for a combined search for quarks of the up- and down-type in decay channels with at least one isolated muon or electron. Limits on the mass of the fourth-generation quarks and the relevant CKM matrix elements are derived in the context of a simple extension of the standard model with a sequential fourth generation of fermions. The existence of mass-degenerate fourth-generation quarks with masses below 685 GeV is excluded at 95% confidence level for minimal off-diagonal mixing between the third- and the fourth-generation quarks. With a mass difference of 25 GeV between the quark masses, the obtained limit on the masses of the fourth-generation quarks shifts by about +/- 20 GeV. This result significantly reduces the allowed parameter space for a fourt...

  17. A New High Resolution Climate Dataset for Climate Change Impacts Assessments in New England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komurcu, M.; Huber, M.

    2016-12-01

    Assessing regional impacts of climate change (such as changes in extreme events, land surface hydrology, water resources, energy, ecosystems and economy) requires much higher resolution climate variables than those available from global model projections. While it is possible to run global models in higher resolution, the high computational cost associated with these simulations prevent their use in such manner. To alleviate this problem, dynamical downscaling offers a method to deliver higher resolution climate variables. As part of an NSF EPSCoR funded interdisciplinary effort to assess climate change impacts on New Hampshire ecosystems, hydrology and economy (the New Hampshire Ecosystems and Society project), we create a unique high-resolution climate dataset for New England. We dynamically downscale global model projections under a high impact emissions scenario using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with three nested grids of 27, 9 and 3 km horizontal resolution with the highest resolution innermost grid focusing over New England. We prefer dynamical downscaling over other methods such as statistical downscaling because it employs physical equations to progressively simulate climate variables as atmospheric processes interact with surface processes, emissions, radiation, clouds, precipitation and other model components, hence eliminates fix relationships between variables. In addition to simulating mean changes in regional climate, dynamical downscaling also allows for the simulation of climate extremes that significantly alter climate change impacts. We simulate three time slices: 2006-2015, 2040-2060 and 2080-2100. This new high-resolution climate dataset (with more than 200 variables saved in hourly (six hourly) intervals for the highest resolution domain (outer two domains)) along with model input and restart files used in our WRF simulations will be publicly available for use to the broader scientific community to support in-depth climate

  18. Microstructural changes during creep and life assessment of Mod.9Cr-1Mo steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sawada, Kota; Maruyama, Kouichi; Komine, Ryuji; Nagae, Yuji.

    1997-01-01

    Several microstructural changes take place in a material during the course of creep. These changes can be a measure of creep life. In this paper, microstructural changes in Mod.9Cr-1Mo steel were studied and it was examined which is a good measure of creep life. Microscopic structural changes, such as void growth, lath structure uniformly oriented to the tensile axis and elongation of grains, are evident only in the necked portion of ruptured specimens. These macroscopic structural changes are not useful for creep life assessment. Lath width increases and dislocation density within lath decreases with increasing creep duration. These changes in dislocation substructure start in the early stage of creep life, and cause the increase of strain rate in the tertiary creep stage. The lath width and the dislocation density reach a saturated value before rupture. The saturated values are independent of temperature, and uniquely related to creep stress normalized by shear modulus. The extent of these microstructural changes are greater at lower stresses under which the material is practically used. These facts suggest that the lath width and the dislocation density within lath can be a useful measure of creep life. Hardness of crept specimens is closely related to the lath width and the dislocation density within lath. The changes of these microstructural features can be evaluated by the measurement of hardness. (author)

  19. Using NDVI to assess vegetative land cover change in central Puget Sound.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morawitz, Dana F; Blewett, Tina M; Cohen, Alex; Alberti, Marina

    2006-03-01

    We used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the rapidly growing Puget Sound region over three 5-year time blocks between 1986-1999 at three spatial scales in 42 Watershed Administrative Units (WAUs) to assess changes in the amounts and patterns of green vegetation. On average, approximately 20% of the area in each WAU experienced significant NDVI change over each 5-year time block. Cumulative NDVI change over 15 years (summing change over each 5-year time block) was an average of approximately 60% of each WAU, but was as high as 100% in some. At the regional scale, seasonal weather patterns and green-up from logging were the primary drivers of observed increases in NDVI values. At the WAU scale, anthropogenic factors were important drivers of both positive and negative NDVI change. For example, population density was highly correlated with negative NDVI change over 15 years (r = 0.66, P < 0.01), as was road density (r = 0.71, P < 0.01). At the smallest scale (within 3 case study WAUs) land use differences such as preserving versus harvesting forest lands drove vegetation change. We conclude that large areas within most watersheds are continually and heavily impacted by the high levels of human use and development over short time periods. Our results indicate that varying patterns and processes can be detected at multiple scales using changes in NDVIa values.

  20. Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment. A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wratt, D.; Mullan, B.; Salinger, J.; Allan, S.; Morgan, T.; Kenny, G.

    2004-05-01

    Climate change is a real and internationally recognised outcome of increased amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It will have effects over the next decades that are predictable with some level of certainty, but which will vary from place to place throughout New Zealand. The climate will also change from year to year and decade to decade due to natural processes. For example, some parts of the country often have dry summers and autumns when an El Nino climate pattern is present. Both natural fluctuations and human-induced climate changes need to be considered when developing adaptation plans and policies, rather than just 'greenhouse warming' effects on their own. Councils already address extreme weather events and climate variations as they develop plans and provide services. Climate change effects need also to be considered as part of these regulatory, assessment and planning activities. It is not necessary to develop a set of procedures for dealing separately with effects and impacts of climate change - they can be built into existing practices. Over time, climate change responses will involve iterative planning processes, keeping up-to-date with new information, monitoring changes, and reviewing the effectiveness of responses. The response to climate change involves international, national, regional, district and community consideration and action. The Guidance Manual aims to assist local government in working with its communities and making appropriate decisions.