WorldWideScience

Sample records for change assessment model

  1. Stress testing hydrologic models using bottom-up climate change assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, C.; Johnson, F.; Marshall, L. A.

    2017-12-01

    Bottom-up climate change assessment is a promising approach for understanding the vulnerability of a system to potential future changes. The technique has been utilised successfully in risk-based assessments of future flood severity and infrastructure vulnerability. We find that it is also an ideal tool for assessing hydrologic model performance in a changing climate. In this study, we applied bottom-up climate change to compare the performance of two different hydrologic models (an event-based and a continuous model) under increasingly severe climate change scenarios. This allowed us to diagnose likely sources of future prediction error in the two models. The climate change scenarios were based on projections for southern Australia, which indicate drier average conditions with increased extreme rainfall intensities. We found that the key weakness in using the event-based model to simulate drier future scenarios was the model's inability to dynamically account for changing antecedent conditions. This led to increased variability in model performance relative to the continuous model, which automatically accounts for the wetness of a catchment through dynamic simulation of water storages. When considering more intense future rainfall events, representation of antecedent conditions became less important than assumptions around (non)linearity in catchment response. The linear continuous model we applied may underestimate flood risk in a future climate with greater extreme rainfall intensity. In contrast with the recommendations of previous studies, this indicates that continuous simulation is not necessarily the key to robust flood modelling under climate change. By applying bottom-up climate change assessment, we were able to understand systematic changes in relative model performance under changing conditions and deduce likely sources of prediction error in the two models.

  2. Integrated assessment models of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E.A.; Fisher-Vanden, K.

    1997-01-01

    The authors review recent work in the integrated assessment modeling of global climate change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to combine knowledge from multiple disciplines in formal integrated representations; inform policy-making, structure knowledge, and prioritize key uncertainties; and advance knowledge of broad system linkages and feedbacks, particularly between socio-economic and bio-physical processes. They may combine simplified representations of the socio-economic determinants of greenhouse gas emissions, the atmosphere and oceans, impacts on human activities and ecosystems, and potential policies and responses. The authors summarize current projects, grouping them according to whether they emphasize the dynamics of emissions control and optimal policy-making, uncertainty, or spatial detail. They review the few significant insights that have been claimed from work to date and identify important challenges for integrated assessment modeling in its relationships to disciplinary knowledge and to broader assessment seeking to inform policy- and decision-making. 192 refs., 2 figs

  3. Scale changes in air quality modelling and assessment of associated uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korsakissok, Irene

    2009-01-01

    After an introduction of issues related to a scale change in the field of air quality (existing scales for emissions, transport, turbulence and loss processes, hierarchy of data and models, methods of scale change), the author first presents Gaussian models which have been implemented within the Polyphemus modelling platform. These models are assessed by comparison with experimental observations and with other commonly used Gaussian models. The second part reports the coupling of the puff-based Gaussian model with the Eulerian Polair3D model for the sub-mesh processing of point sources. This coupling is assessed at the continental scale for a passive tracer, and at the regional scale for photochemistry. Different statistical methods are assessed

  4. Multi-model approach to assess the impact of climate change on runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dams, J.; Nossent, J.; Senbeta, T. B.; Willems, P.; Batelaan, O.

    2015-10-01

    The assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology is subject to uncertainties related to the climate change scenarios, stochastic uncertainties of the hydrological model and structural uncertainties of the hydrological model. This paper focuses on the contribution of structural uncertainty of hydrological models to the overall uncertainty of the climate change impact assessment. To quantify the structural uncertainty of hydrological models, four physically based hydrological models (SWAT, PRMS and a semi- and fully distributed version of the WetSpa model) are set up for a catchment in Belgium. Each model is calibrated using four different objective functions. Three climate change scenarios with a high, mean and low hydrological impact are statistically perturbed from a large ensemble of climate change scenarios and are used to force the hydrological models. This methodology allows assessing and comparing the uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios with the uncertainty introduced by the hydrological model structure. Results show that the hydrological model structure introduces a large uncertainty on both the average monthly discharge and the extreme peak and low flow predictions under the climate change scenarios. For the low impact climate change scenario, the uncertainty range of the mean monthly runoff is comparable to the range of these runoff values in the reference period. However, for the mean and high impact scenarios, this range is significantly larger. The uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios is larger than the uncertainty due to the hydrological model structure for the low and mean hydrological impact scenarios, but the reverse is true for the high impact climate change scenario. The mean and high impact scenarios project increasing peak discharges, while the low impact scenario projects increasing peak discharges only for peak events with return periods larger than 1.6 years. All models suggest for all scenarios a

  5. Integrated assessment models of climate change. An incomplete overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowlatabadi, H.

    1995-01-01

    Integrated assessment is a trendy phrase that has recently entered the vocabulary of folks in Washington, DC and elsewhere. The novelty of the term in policy analysis and policy making circles belies the longevity of this approach in the sciences and past attempts at their application to policy issues. This paper is an attempt at providing an overview of integrated assessment with a special focus on policy motivated integrated assessments of climate change. The first section provides an introduction to integrated assessments in general, followed by a discussion of the bounds to the climate change issue. The next section is devoted to a taxonomy of the policy motivated models. Then the integrated assessment effort at Carnegie Mellon is described briefly. A perspective on the challenges ahead in successful representation of natural and social dynamics in integrated assessments of global climate change is presented in the final section. (Author)

  6. Curonian Lagoon drainage basin modelling and assessment of climate change impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalja Čerkasova

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Curonian Lagoon, which is the largest European coastal lagoon with a surface area of 1578 km2 and a drainage area of 100,458 km2, is facing a severe eutrophication problem. With its increasing water management difficulties, the need for a sophisticated hydrological model of the Curonian Lagoon's drainage area arose, in order to assess possible changes resulting from local and global processes. In this study, we developed and calibrated a sophisticated hydrological model with the required accuracy, as an initial step for the future development of a modelling framework that aims to correctly predict the movement of pesticides, sediments or nutrients, and to evaluate water-management practices. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to implement a model of the study area and to assess the impact of climate-change scenarios on the run-off of the Nemunas River and the Minija River, which are located in the Curonian Lagoons drainage basin. The models calibration and validation were performed using monthly streamflow data, and evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R2 and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE. The calculated values of the R2 and NSE for the Nemunas and Minija Rivers stations were 0.81 and 0.79 for the calibration, and 0.679 and 0.602 for the validation period. Two potential climate-change scenarios were developed within the general patterns of near-term climate projections, as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report: both pessimistic (substantial changes in precipitation and temperature and optimistic (insubstantial changes in precipitation and temperature. Both simulations produce similar general patterns in river-discharge change: a strong increase (up to 22% in the winter months, especially in February, a decrease during the spring (up to 10% and summer (up to 18%, and a slight increase during the autumn (up to 10%.

  7. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, V. H.; Rauscher, H. M.

    1993-04-06

    Models that address the impacts to forests of climate change are reviewed by four levels of biological organization: global, regional or landscape, community, and tree. The models are compared as to their ability to assess changes in greenhouse gas flux, land use, maps of forest type or species composition, forest resource productivity, forest health, biodiversity, and wildlife habitat. No one model can address all of these impacts, but landscape transition models and regional vegetation and land-use models consider the largest number of impacts. Developing landscape vegetation dynamics models of functional groups is suggested as a means to integrate the theory of both landscape ecology and individual tree responses to climate change. Risk assessment methodologies can be adapted to deal with the impacts of climate change at various spatial and temporal scales. Four areas of research development are identified: (1) linking socioeconomic and ecologic models, (2) interfacing forest models at different scales, (3) obtaining data on susceptibility of trees and forest to changes in climate and disturbance regimes, and (4) relating information from different scales.

  8. A maturity model to assess organisational readiness for change

    OpenAIRE

    Zephir, Olivier; Minel, Stéphanie; Chapotot, Emilie

    2011-01-01

    International audience; The presented model which is developed in a European project allows project management teams to assess the organisational maturity to integrate new practices under structural or technological change. Maturity for change is defined here as workforce capability to operate effectively in transformed processes. This methodology is addressed to tackle organisational readiness to fulfil business objectives through technological and structural improvements. The tool integrate...

  9. Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Bindi, M.; Webber, Heidi; Trnka, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Olesen, J.E.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Janssen, S.J.C.; Rivington, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J.R.; Stewart, D.; Verhagen, J.; Gaiser, T.; Palosuo, T.; Tao, F.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P.P.; Bartosová, L.; Asseng, S.

    2015-01-01

    The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess

  10. Modeling and assessment of hydrological changes in a developing urban catchment

    OpenAIRE

    Guan, M; Sillanpää, N; Koivusalo, H

    2015-01-01

    Urbanization strongly changes natural catchment by increasing impervious coverage and by creating a need for efficient drainage systems. Such land cover changes lead to more rapid hydrological response to storms and change distribution of peak and low flows. This study aims to explore and assess how gradual hydrological changes occur during urban development from rural area to a medium-density residential catchment. The Stormwater Management Model (SWMM) is utilized to simulate a series of sc...

  11. Quantifying the impact of model inaccuracy in climate change impact assessment studies using an agro-hydrological model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Droogers, P.; Loon, van A.F.; Immerzeel, W.W.

    2008-01-01

    Numerical simulation models are frequently applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrology and agriculture. A common hypothesis is that unavoidable model errors are reflected in the reference situation as well as in the climate change situation so that by comparing reference to scenario

  12. Distributional aspects of emissions in climate change integrated assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cantore, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    The recent failure of Copenhagen negotiations shows that concrete actions are needed to create the conditions for a consensus over global emission reduction policies. A wide coalition of countries in international climate change agreements could be facilitated by the perceived fairness of rich and poor countries of the abatement sharing at international level. In this paper I use two popular climate change integrated assessment models to investigate the path and decompose components and sources of future inequality in the emissions distribution. Results prove to be consistent with previous empirical studies and robust to model comparison and show that gaps in GDP across world regions will still play a crucial role in explaining different countries contributions to global warming. - Research highlights: → I implement a scenario analysis with two global climate change models. → I analyse inequality in the distribution of emissions. → I decompose emissions inequality components. → I find that GDP per capita is the main Kaya identity source of emissions inequality. → Current rich countries will mostly remain responsible for emissions inequality.

  13. Change within Purchasing and Supply Management Organisations – Assessing the Claims from Maturity Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm Andreasen, Peter; Gammelgaard, Britta

    2018-01-01

    It is a wide-held assumption that professional development and change within purchasing and supply management (PSM) organisations can be explained and guided by a maturity model. In this paper the guidance which the maturity model concept offers to understand a PSM organisation's performance...... an organisational change framework, composing 1) movement transitions, 2) scalability of change, 3) acceptability of change, and 4) the substantive element of change. The research found that extant PSM maturity models are too rigid for PSM managers to apply, and although maturity models are commonly accepted in PSM...... is assessed. The methodology is based on the outcomes of a literature review of PSM maturity models, development of an organisational change framework and the learning from three qualitative case studies. An alternative understanding of the development of the PSM organisation is offered through...

  14. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J. [eds.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  15. Assessment of climate change scenarios for Saudi Arabia using data from global climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Husain, T.; Chowdhury, S.

    2009-01-01

    This study assesses available scientific information and data to predict changes in the climatic parameters in Saudi Arabia for understanding the impacts for mitigation and/or adaptation. Meteorological data from 26 synoptic stations were analyzed in this study. Various climatic change scenarios were reviewed and A 2 and B 2 climatic scenario families were selected. In order to assess long-term global impact, global climatic models were used to simulate changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind circulation. Using global climate model (GCM), monthly time series data was retrieved for Longitude 15 o N to 35 o N and 32.5 o E to 60 o E covering the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from 1970 to 2100 for all grids. Taking averages of 1970 to 2003 as baseline, change in temperature, relative humidity and precipitation were estimated for the base period. A comparative evaluation was performed for predictive capabilities of these models for temperature, precipitation and relative humidity. Available meteorological data from 1970 to 2003 was used to determine trends. This paper discusses the inconsistency in these parameters for decision-making and recommends future studies by linking global climate models with a suitable regional climate modeling tool. (author)

  16. Improving the use of crop models for risk assessment and climate change adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Challinor, Andrew J; Müller, Christoph; Asseng, Senthold; Deva, Chetan; Nicklin, Kathryn Jane; Wallach, Daniel; Vanuytrecht, Eline; Whitfield, Stephen; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Koehler, Ann-Kristin

    2018-01-01

    Crop models are used for an increasingly broad range of applications, with a commensurate proliferation of methods. Careful framing of research questions and development of targeted and appropriate methods are therefore increasingly important. In conjunction with the other authors in this special issue, we have developed a set of criteria for use of crop models in assessments of impacts, adaptation and risk. Our analysis drew on the other papers in this special issue, and on our experience in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 and the MACSUR, AgMIP and ISIMIP projects. The criteria were used to assess how improvements could be made to the framing of climate change risks, and to outline the good practice and new developments that are needed to improve risk assessment. Key areas of good practice include: i. the development, running and documentation of crop models, with attention given to issues of spatial scale and complexity; ii. the methods used to form crop-climate ensembles, which can be based on model skill and/or spread; iii. the methods used to assess adaptation, which need broadening to account for technological development and to reflect the full range options available. The analysis highlights the limitations of focussing only on projections of future impacts and adaptation options using pre-determined time slices. Whilst this long-standing approach may remain an essential component of risk assessments, we identify three further key components: 1.Working with stakeholders to identify the timing of risks. What are the key vulnerabilities of food systems and what does crop-climate modelling tell us about when those systems are at risk?2.Use of multiple methods that critically assess the use of climate model output and avoid any presumption that analyses should begin and end with gridded output.3.Increasing transparency and inter-comparability in risk assessments. Whilst studies frequently produce ranges that quantify uncertainty, the assumptions

  17. A Framework for Modelling Indirect Land Use Changes in Life Cycle Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Jannick Højrup; Weidema, Bo Pedersen; Brandão, Miguel

    2015-01-01

    Around 9% of global CO2 emissions originate from land use changes. Often, these emissions are not appropriately addressed in Life Cycle Assessment. The link between demand for crops in one region and impacts in other regions is referred to here as indirect land use change (iLUC) and includes...... demand for land and land use changes is established through markets for land's production capacity. The iLUC model presented is generally applicable to all land use types, crops and regions of the world in typical LCA decision-making contexts focusing on the long-term effects of small-scale changes...... deforestation, intensification and reduced consumption. Existing models for iLUC tend to ignore intensification and reduced consumption, they most often operate with arbitrary amortisation periods to allocate deforestation emissions over time, and the causal link between land occupation and deforestation...

  18. Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2013-04-01

    showed some unexpected results, where climate models predicting the largest increase in net precipitation did not result in the largest increase in groundwater heads. This was found to be the result of different initial conditions (1990 - 2010) for the various climate models. In some areas a combination of a high initial groundwater head and an increase in precipitation towards 2021 - 2050 resulted in a groundwater head raise that reached the drainage or the surface water system. This will increase the exchange from the groundwater to the surface water system, but reduce the raise in groundwater heads. An alternative climate model, with a lower initial head can thus predict a higher increase in the groundwater head, although the increase in precipitation is lower. This illustrates an extra dimension in the uncertainty assessment, namely the climate models capability of simulating the current climatic conditions in a way that can reproduce the observed hydrological response. Højberg, AL, Troldborg, L, Stisen, S, et al. (2012) Stakeholder driven update and improvement of a national water resources model - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815212002423 Seaby, LP, Refsgaard, JC, Sonnenborg, TO, et al. (2012) Assessment of robustness and significance of climate change signals for an ensemble of distribution-based scaled climate projections (submitted) Journal of Hydrology Stisen, S, Højberg, AL, Troldborg, L et al., (2012): On the importance of appropriate rain-gauge catch correction for hydrological modelling at mid to high latitudes - http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/16/4157/2012/

  19. The AgMIP Wheat Pilot: A multi-model approach for climate change impact assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asseng, S.

    2012-12-01

    Asseng S., F. Ewert, C. Rosenzweig, J.W. Jones, J.L. Hatfield, A. Ruane, K.J. Boote, P. Thorburn, R.P. Rötter, D. Cammarano, N. Brisson, B. Basso, P. Martre, D. Ripoche, P. Bertuzzi, P. Steduto, L. Heng, M.A. Semenov, P. Stratonovitch, C. Stockle, G. O'Leary, P.K. Aggarwal, S. Naresh Kumar, C. Izaurralde, J.W. White, L.A. Hunt, R. Grant, K.C. Kersebaum, T. Palosuo, J. Hooker, T. Osborne, J. Wolf, I. Supit, J.E. Olesen, J. Doltra, C. Nendel, S. Gayler, J. Ingwersen, E. Priesack, T. Streck, F. Tao, C. Müller, K. Waha, R. Goldberg, C. Angulo, I. Shcherbak, C. Biernath, D. Wallach, M. Travasso, A. Challinor. Abstract: Crop simulation models have been used to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture. These assessments are often carried out with a single model in a limited number of environments and without determining the uncertainty of simulated impacts. There is a need for a coordinated effort bringing together multiple modeling teams which has been recognized by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; www.agmip.org). AgMIP aims to provide more robust estimates of climate impacts on crop yields and agricultural trade, including estimates of associated uncertainties. Here, we present the AgMIP Wheat Pilot Study, the most comprehensive model intercomparison of the response of wheat crops to climate change to date, including 27 wheat models. Crop model uncertainties in assessing climate change impacts are explored and compared with field experimental and Global Circulation Model uncertainties. Causes of impact uncertainties and ways to reduce these are discussed.

  20. Revisiting Kappa to account for change in the accuracy assessment of land-use models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van J.; Bregt, A.K.; Hagen-Zanker, A.

    2011-01-01

    Land-use change models are typically calibrated to reproduce known historic changes. Calibration results can then be assessed by comparing two datasets: the simulated land-use map and the actual land-use map at the same time. A common method for this is the Kappa statistic, which expresses the

  1. Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Bindi, M.

    2015-01-01

    . However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming...... climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required assessment variables...

  2. Enhanced science-stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsson, Anna Maria; Anderbrant, Olle; Holmer, Jennie

    2015-01-01

    In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused...... by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science–stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact...... a discussion among the science–stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models....

  3. The assessment of damages due to climate change in a situation of uncertainty: the contribution of adaptation cost modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumas, P.

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this research is to introduce new elements for the assessment of damages due to climate changes within the frame of compact models aiding the decision. Two types of methodologies are used: sequential optimisation stochastic models and simulation stochastic models using optimal assessment methods. The author first defines the damages, characterizes their different categories, and reviews the existing assessments. Notably, he makes the distinction between damages due to climate change and damages due to its rate. Then, he presents the different models used in this study, the numerical solutions, and gives a rough estimate of the importance of the considered phenomena. By introducing a new category of capital in an optimal growth model, he tries to establish a framework allowing the representation of adaptation and of its costs. He introduces inertia in macro-economical evolutions, climatic variability, detection of climate change and damages due to climate hazards

  4. Adapting crop rotations to climate change in regional impact modelling assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teixeira, Edmar I; de Ruiter, John; Ausseil, Anne-Gaelle; Daigneault, Adam; Johnstone, Paul; Holmes, Allister; Tait, Andrew; Ewert, Frank

    2018-03-01

    The environmental and economic sustainability of future cropping systems depends on adaptation to climate change. Adaptation studies commonly rely on agricultural systems models to integrate multiple components of production systems such as crops, weather, soil and farmers' management decisions. Previous adaptation studies have mostly focused on isolated monocultures. However, in many agricultural regions worldwide, multi-crop rotations better represent local production systems. It is unclear how adaptation interventions influence crops grown in sequences. We develop a catchment-scale assessment to investigate the effects of tactical adaptations (choice of genotype and sowing date) on yield and underlying crop-soil factors of rotations. Based on locally surveyed data, a silage-maize followed by catch-crop-wheat rotation was simulated with the APSIM model for the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, two time periods (1985-2004 and 2080-2100) and six climate models across the Kaituna catchment in New Zealand. Results showed that direction and magnitude of climate change impacts, and the response to adaptation, varied spatially and were affected by rotation carryover effects due to agronomical (e.g. timing of sowing and harvesting) and soil (e.g. residual nitrogen, N) aspects. For example, by adapting maize to early-sowing dates under a warmer climate, there was an advance in catch crop establishment which enhanced residual soil N uptake. This dynamics, however, differed with local environment and choice of short- or long-cycle maize genotypes. Adaptation was insufficient to neutralize rotation yield losses in lowlands but consistently enhanced yield gains in highlands, where other constraints limited arable cropping. The positive responses to adaptation were mainly due to increases in solar radiation interception across the entire growth season. These results provide deeper insights on the dynamics of climate change impacts for crop rotation systems. Such knowledge can be used

  5. An application of a hydraulic model simulator in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, J. M.; Romanowicz, R. J.

    2016-12-01

    The standard procedure of climate change impact assessment on future hydrological extremes consists of a chain of consecutive actions, starting from the choice of GCM driven by an assumed CO2 scenario, through downscaling of climatic forcing to a catchment scale, estimation of hydrological extreme indices using hydrological modelling tools and subsequent derivation of flood risk maps with the help of a hydraulic model. Among many possible sources of uncertainty, the main are the uncertainties related to future climate scenarios, climate models, downscaling techniques and hydrological and hydraulic models. Unfortunately, we cannot directly assess the impact of these different sources of uncertainties on flood risk in future due to lack of observations of future climate realizations. The aim of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the processes involved, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-sections. The study shows that the application of a simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the

  6. Modelling regional land change scenarios to assess land abandonment and reforestation dynamics in the Pyrenees (France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas; Sohl, Terry L.; Reker, Ryan R.; Sayler, Kristi L.

    2015-01-01

    Over the last decades and centuries, European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations. Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes (land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities, have directly influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes. For the past sixty years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population. Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes, need spatially and temporally explicit models to identify areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment. This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains, based on historical LULC trends and a range of future socio-economic drivers. The proposed methodology considers local specificities of the Pyrenean valleys, sub-regional climate and topographical properties, and regional economic policies. Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of the scenario conditions. Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive (agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability. The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessments of where encroachment (e.g. colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable. This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions.

  7. Enhanced science-stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jönsson, Anna Maria; Anderbrant, Olle; Holmér, Jennie; Johansson, Jacob; Schurgers, Guy; Svensson, Glenn P; Smith, Henrik G

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science-stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science-stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate a discussion among the science-stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models.

  8. Assessing climate change effects on long-term forest development: adjusting growth, phenology, and seed production in a gap model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meer, van der P.J.; Jorritsma, I.T.M.; Kramer, K.

    2002-01-01

    The sensitivity of forest development to climate change is assessed using a gap model. Process descriptions in the gap model of growth, phenology, and seed production were adjusted for climate change effects using a detailed process-based growth modeland a regression analysis. Simulation runs over

  9. Simulating Pacific Northwest Forest Response to Climate Change: How We Made Model Results Useful for Vulnerability Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J. B.; Kerns, B. K.; Halofsky, J.

    2014-12-01

    GCM-based climate projections and downscaled climate data proliferate, and there are many climate-aware vegetation models in use by researchers. Yet application of fine-scale DGVM based simulation output in national forest vulnerability assessments is not common, because there are technical, administrative and social barriers for their use by managers and policy makers. As part of a science-management climate change adaptation partnership, we performed simulations of vegetation response to climate change for four national forests in the Blue Mountains of Oregon using the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) for use in vulnerability assessments. Our simulation results under business-as-usual scenarios suggest a starkly different future forest conditions for three out of the four national forests in the study area, making their adoption by forest managers a potential challenge. However, using DGVM output to structure discussion of potential vegetation changes provides a suitable framework to discuss the dynamic nature of vegetation change compared to using more commonly available model output (e.g. species distribution models). From the onset, we planned and coordinated our work with national forest managers to maximize the utility and the consideration of the simulation results in planning. Key lessons from this collaboration were: (1) structured and strategic selection of a small number climate change scenarios that capture the range of variability in future conditions simplified results; (2) collecting and integrating data from managers for use in simulations increased support and interest in applying output; (3) a structured, regionally focused, and hierarchical calibration of the DGVM produced well-validated results; (4) simple approaches to quantifying uncertainty in simulation results facilitated communication; and (5) interpretation of model results in a holistic context in relation to multiple lines of evidence produced balanced guidance. This latest

  10. Flood risk in a changing world - a coupled transdisciplinary modelling framework for flood risk assessment in an Alpine study area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huttenlau, Matthias; Schneeberger, Klaus; Winter, Benjamin; Pazur, Robert; Förster, Kristian; Achleitner, Stefan; Bolliger, Janine

    2017-04-01

    Devastating flood events have caused substantial economic damage across Europe during past decades. Flood risk management has therefore become a topic of crucial interest across state agencies, research communities and the public sector including insurances. There is consensus that mitigating flood risk relies on impact assessments which quantitatively account for a broad range of aspects in a (changing) environment. Flood risk assessments which take into account the interaction between the drivers climate change, land-use change and socio-economic change might bring new insights to the understanding of the magnitude and spatial characteristic of flood risks. Furthermore, the comparative assessment of different adaptation measures can give valuable information for decision-making. With this contribution we present an inter- and transdisciplinary research project aiming at developing and applying such an impact assessment relying on a coupled modelling framework for the Province of Vorarlberg in Austria. Stakeholder engagement ensures that the final outcomes of our study are accepted and successfully implemented in flood management practice. The study addresses three key questions: (i) What are scenarios of land- use and climate change for the study area? (ii) How will the magnitude and spatial characteristic of future flood risk change as a result of changes in climate and land use? (iii) Are there spatial planning and building-protection measures which effectively reduce future flood risk? The modelling framework has a modular structure comprising modules (i) climate change, (ii) land-use change, (iii) hydrologic modelling, (iv) flood risk analysis, and (v) adaptation measures. Meteorological time series are coupled with spatially explicit scenarios of land-use change to model runoff time series. The runoff time series are combined with impact indicators such as building damages and results are statistically assessed to analyse flood risk scenarios. Thus, the

  11. Using Risk Assessment and Habitat Suitability Models to Prioritise Invasive Species for Management in a Changing Climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chai, Shauna-Lee; Zhang, Jian; Nixon, Amy; Nielsen, Scott

    2016-01-01

    Accounting for climate change in invasive species risk assessments improves our understanding of potential future impacts and enhances our preparedness for the arrival of new non-native species. We combined traditional risk assessment for invasive species with habitat suitability modeling to assess risk to biodiversity based on climate change. We demonstrate our method by assessing the risk for 15 potentially new invasive plant species to Alberta, Canada, an area where climate change is expected to facilitate the poleward expansion of invasive species ranges. Of the 15 species assessed, the three terrestrial invasive plant species that could pose the greatest threat to Alberta's biodiversity are giant knotweed (Fallopia sachalinensis), tamarisk (Tamarix chinensis), and alkali swainsonpea (Sphaerophysa salsula). We characterise giant knotweed as 'extremely invasive', with 21 times the suitable habitat between baseline and future projected climate. Tamarisk is 'extremely invasive' with a 64% increase in suitable habitat, and alkali swainsonpea is 'highly invasive' with a 21% increase in suitable habitat. Our methodology can be used to predict and prioritise potentially new invasive species for their impact on biodiversity in the context of climate change.

  12. Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2010 - part 1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - integrated assessment modeling and valuation.

  13. Modeling the impact of climate change in Germany with biosphere models for long-term safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Staudt, C.; Semiochkina, N.; Kaiser, J.C.; Pröhl, G.

    2013-01-01

    Biosphere models are used to evaluate the exposure of populations to radionuclides from a deep geological repository. Since the time frame for assessments of long-time disposal safety is 1 million years, potential future climate changes need to be accounted for. Potential future climate conditions were defined for northern Germany according to model results from the BIOCLIM project. Nine present day reference climate regions were defined to cover those future climate conditions. A biosphere model was developed according to the BIOMASS methodology of the IAEA and model parameters were adjusted to the conditions at the reference climate regions. The model includes exposure pathways common to those reference climate regions in a stylized biosphere and relevant to the exposure of a hypothetical self-sustaining population at the site of potential radionuclide contamination from a deep geological repository. The end points of the model are Biosphere Dose Conversion factors (BDCF) for a range of radionuclides and scenarios normalized for a constant radionuclide concentration in near-surface groundwater. Model results suggest an increased exposure of in dry climate regions with a high impact of drinking water consumption rates and the amount of irrigation water used for agriculture. - Highlights: ► We model Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors for a representative group exposed to radionuclides from a waste repository. ► The BDCF are modeled for different soil types. ► One model is used for the assessment of the influence of climate change during the disposal time frame.

  14. Assessing species vulnerability to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacifici, Michela; Foden, Wendy B.; Visconti, Piero; Watson, James E. M.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Kovacs, Kit M.; Scheffers, Brett R.; Hole, David G.; Martin, Tara G.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Corlett, Richard T.; Huntley, Brian; Bickford, David; Carr, Jamie A.; Hoffmann, Ary A.; Midgley, Guy F.; Pearce-Kelly, Paul; Pearson, Richard G.; Williams, Stephen E.; Willis, Stephen G.; Young, Bruce; Rondinini, Carlo

    2015-03-01

    The effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly well documented, and many methods have been developed to assess species' vulnerability to climatic changes, both ongoing and projected in the coming decades. To minimize global biodiversity losses, conservationists need to identify those species that are likely to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this Review, we summarize different currencies used for assessing species' climate change vulnerability. We describe three main approaches used to derive these currencies (correlative, mechanistic and trait-based), and their associated data requirements, spatial and temporal scales of application and modelling methods. We identify strengths and weaknesses of the approaches and highlight the sources of uncertainty inherent in each method that limit projection reliability. Finally, we provide guidance for conservation practitioners in selecting the most appropriate approach(es) for their planning needs and highlight priority areas for further assessments.

  15. Signal-transfer Modeling for Regional Assessment of Forest Responses to Environmental Changes in the Southeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert J. Luxmoore; William W. Hargrove; M. Lynn Tharp; Wilfred M. Post; Michael W. Berry; Karen S. Minser; Wendell P. Cropper; Dale W. Johnson; Boris Zeide; Ralph L. Amateis; Harold E. Burkhart; V. Clark Baldwin; Kelly D. Peterson

    2000-01-01

    Stochastic transfer of information in a hierarchy of simulators is offered as a conceptual approach for assessing forest responses to changing climate and air quality across 13 southeastern states of the USA. This assessment approach combines geographic information system and Monte Carlo capabilities with several scales of computer modeling for southern pine species...

  16. A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet

    2013-04-01

    Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change

  17. Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brian C. O' Neill

    2006-08-09

    This report describes results of the research project on "Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics". The overall objective of this project was to improve projections of energy demand and associated greenhouse gas emissions by taking into account demographic factors currently not incorporated in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of global climate change. We proposed to examine the potential magnitude of effects on energy demand of changes in the composition of populations by household characteristics for three countries: the U.S., China, and Indonesia. For each country, we planned to analyze household energy use survey data to estimate relationships between household characteristics and energy use; develop a new set of detailed household projections for each country; and combine these analyses to produce new projections of energy demand illustrating the potential importance of consideration of households.

  18. Assessment of CMIP5 climate models and projected temperature changes over Northern Eurasia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miao, Chiyuan; Duan, Qingyun; Sun, Qiaohong; Kong, Dongxian; Ye, Aizhong; Di, Zhenhua; Gong, Wei; Huang, Yong; Yang, Tiantian

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the performance of climate models in surface air temperature (SAT) simulation and projection have received increasing attention during the recent decades. This paper assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating intra-annual, annual and decadal temperature over Northern Eurasia from 1901 to 2005. We evaluate the skill of different multi-model ensemble techniques and use the best technique to project the future SAT changes under different emission scenarios. The results show that most of the general circulation models (GCMs) overestimate the annual mean SAT in Northern Eurasia and the difference between the observation and the simulations primarily comes from the winter season. Most of the GCMs can approximately capture the decadal SAT trend; however, the accuracy of annual SAT simulation is relatively low. The correlation coefficient R between each GCM simulation and the annual observation is in the range of 0.20 to 0.56. The Taylor diagram shows that the ensemble results generated by the simple model averaging (SMA), reliability ensemble averaging (REA) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) methods are superior to any single GCM output; and the decadal SAT change generated by SMA, REA and BMA are almost identical during 1901–2005. Heuristically, the uncertainty of BMA simulation is the smallest among the three multi-model ensemble simulations. The future SAT projection generated by the BMA shows that the SAT in Northern Eurasia will increase in the 21st century by around 1.03 °C/100 yr, 3.11 °C/100 yr and 7.14 °C/100 yr under the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively; and the warming accelerates with the increasing latitude. In addition, the spring season contributes most to the decadal warming occurring under the RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 scenarios, while the winter season contributes most to the decadal warming occurring under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Generally, the uncertainty of the SAT

  19. Using Risk Assessment and Habitat Suitability Models to Prioritise Invasive Species for Management in a Changing Climate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shauna-Lee Chai

    Full Text Available Accounting for climate change in invasive species risk assessments improves our understanding of potential future impacts and enhances our preparedness for the arrival of new non-native species. We combined traditional risk assessment for invasive species with habitat suitability modeling to assess risk to biodiversity based on climate change. We demonstrate our method by assessing the risk for 15 potentially new invasive plant species to Alberta, Canada, an area where climate change is expected to facilitate the poleward expansion of invasive species ranges. Of the 15 species assessed, the three terrestrial invasive plant species that could pose the greatest threat to Alberta's biodiversity are giant knotweed (Fallopia sachalinensis, tamarisk (Tamarix chinensis, and alkali swainsonpea (Sphaerophysa salsula. We characterise giant knotweed as 'extremely invasive', with 21 times the suitable habitat between baseline and future projected climate. Tamarisk is 'extremely invasive' with a 64% increase in suitable habitat, and alkali swainsonpea is 'highly invasive' with a 21% increase in suitable habitat. Our methodology can be used to predict and prioritise potentially new invasive species for their impact on biodiversity in the context of climate change.

  20. Quantitative assessment of changes in landslide risk using a regional scale run-out model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussin, Haydar; Chen, Lixia; Ciurean, Roxana; van Westen, Cees; Reichenbach, Paola; Sterlacchini, Simone

    2015-04-01

    The risk of landslide hazard continuously changes in time and space and is rarely a static or constant phenomena in an affected area. However one of the main challenges of quantitatively assessing changes in landslide risk is the availability of multi-temporal data for the different components of risk. Furthermore, a truly "quantitative" landslide risk analysis requires the modeling of the landslide intensity (e.g. flow depth, velocities or impact pressures) affecting the elements at risk. Such a quantitative approach is often lacking in medium to regional scale studies in the scientific literature or is left out altogether. In this research we modelled the temporal and spatial changes of debris flow risk in a narrow alpine valley in the North Eastern Italian Alps. The debris flow inventory from 1996 to 2011 and multi-temporal digital elevation models (DEMs) were used to assess the susceptibility of debris flow triggering areas and to simulate debris flow run-out using the Flow-R regional scale model. In order to determine debris flow intensities, we used a linear relationship that was found between back calibrated physically based Flo-2D simulations (local scale models of five debris flows from 2003) and the probability values of the Flow-R software. This gave us the possibility to assign flow depth to a total of 10 separate classes on a regional scale. Debris flow vulnerability curves from the literature and one curve specifically for our case study area were used to determine the damage for different material and building types associated with the elements at risk. The building values were obtained from the Italian Revenue Agency (Agenzia delle Entrate) and were classified per cadastral zone according to the Real Estate Observatory data (Osservatorio del Mercato Immobiliare, Agenzia Entrate - OMI). The minimum and maximum market value for each building was obtained by multiplying the corresponding land-use value (€/msq) with building area and number of floors

  1. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM). I: Model intercomparison with current land use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breuer, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Willems, P.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces the project on 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM)' that aims at investigating the envelope of predictions on changes in hydrological fluxes due to land use change. As part of a series of four papers, this paper outlines the motivation and setup of LUCHEM, and presents a model intercomparison for the present-day simulation results. Such an intercomparison provides a valuable basis to investigate the effects of different model structures on model predictions and paves the ground for the analysis of the performance of multi-model ensembles and the reliability of the scenario predictions in companion papers. In this study, we applied a set of 10 lumped, semi-lumped and fully distributed hydrological models that have been previously used in land use change studies to the low mountainous Dill catchment, Germany. Substantial differences in model performance were observed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies ranging from 0.53 to 0.92. Differences in model performance were attributed to (1) model input data, (2) model calibration and (3) the physical basis of the models. The models were applied with two sets of input data: an original and a homogenized data set. This homogenization of precipitation, temperature and leaf area index was performed to reduce the variation between the models. Homogenization improved the comparability of model simulations and resulted in a reduced average bias, although some variation in model data input remained. The effect of the physical differences between models on the long-term water balance was mainly attributed to differences in how models represent evapotranspiration. Semi-lumped and lumped conceptual models slightly outperformed the fully distributed and physically based models. This was attributed to the automatic model calibration typically used for this type of models. Overall, however, we conclude that there was no superior model if several measures of model

  2. Construction of climate change scenarios from transient climate change experiments for the IPCC impacts assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viner, D.; Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.; Jones, P.D.

    1994-01-01

    This paper outlines the different methods which may be used for the construction of regional climate change scenarios. The main focus of the paper is the construction of global climate change scenarios from climate change experiments carried out using General Circulation Models (GCMS) An introduction to some GCM climate change experiments highlights the difference between model types and experiments (e.g., equilibrium or transient). The latest generation of climate change experiments has been performed using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMS. These allow transient simulations of climate change to be performed with respect to a given greenhouse gas forcing scenario. There are, however, a number of problems with these simulations which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios for use in climate change impacts assessment. The characteristics of the transient climate change experiments which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios are discussed. Three examples of these problems are: different climate change experiments use different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios; the 'cold-start' problem makes it difficult to link future projections of climate change to a given calendar year; a drift of the climate is noticeable in the control simulations. In order to construct climate change scenarios for impacts assessment a method has therefore to be employed which addresses these problems. At present the climate modeling and climate change impacts communities are somewhat polarized in their approach to spatial scales. Current GCMs model the climate at resolutions larger than 2.5 x 3.75 degree, while the majority of impacts assessment studies are undertaken at scales below 50km (or 0.5 degree). This paper concludes by addressing the problems in bringing together these two different modeling perspectives by presenting a number of regional climate change scenarios. 35 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs

  3. Evaluation of historical land cover, land use, and land-use change emissions in the GCAM integrated assessment model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Janetos, A. C.; Zhou, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are often used as science-based decision-support tools for evaluating the consequences of climate and energy policies, and their use in this framework is likely to increase in the future. However, quantitative evaluation of these models has been somewhat limited for a variety of reasons, including data availability, data quality, and the inherent challenges in projections of societal values and decision-making. In this analysis, we identify and confront methodological challenges involved in evaluating the agriculture and land use component of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. GCAM then calculates both emissions from land-use practices, and long-term changes in carbon stocks in different land uses, thus providing simulation information that can be compared to observed historical data. In this work, we compare GCAM results, both in recent historic and future time periods, to historical data sets. We focus on land use, land cover, land-use change emissions, and albedo.

  4. Assessments of Future Maize Yield Potential Changes in the Korean Peninsula Using Multiple Crop Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S. H.; Lim, C. H.; Kim, J.; Lee, W. K.; Kafatos, M.

    2016-12-01

    The Korean Peninsula has unique agricultural environment due to the differences of political and socio-economical system between Republic of Korea (SK, hereafter) and Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea (NK, hereafter). NK has been suffering lack of food supplies caused by natural disasters, land degradation and political failure. The neighboring developed country SK has better agricultural system but very low food self-sufficiency rate. Maize is an important crop in both countries since it is staple food for NK and SK is No. 2 maize importing country in the world after Japan. Therefore, evaluating maize yield potential (Yp) in the two distinct regions is essential to assess food security under climate change and variability. In this study, we utilized multiple process-based crop models, having ability of regional scale assessment, to evaluate maize Yp and assess the model uncertainties -EPIC, GEPIC, DSSAT, and APSIM model that has capability of regional scale expansion (apsimRegions). First we evaluated each crop model for 3 years from 2012 to 2014 using reanalysis data (RDAPS; Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System produced by Korea Meteorological Agency) and observed yield data. Each model performances were compared over the different regions in the Korean Peninsula having different local climate characteristics. To quantify of the major influence of at each climate variables, we also conducted sensitivity test using 20 years of climatology in historical period from 1981 to 2000. Lastly, the multi-crop model ensemble analysis was performed for future period from 2031 to 2050. The required weather variables projected for mid-century were employed from COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) East Asia. The high-resolution climate data were obtained from multiple regional climate models (RCM) driven by multiple climate scenarios projected from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in conjunction with multiple greenhouse gas

  5. Land cover change or land use intensification: simulating land system change with a global-scale land change model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Asselen, S.; Verburg, P.H.

    2013-01-01

    Land-use change is both a cause and consequence of many biophysical and socioeconomic changes. The CLUMondo model provides an innovative approach for global land-use change modeling to support integrated assessments. Demands for goods and services are, in the model, supplied by a variety of land

  6. Misleading prioritizations from modelling range shifts under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofaer, Helen R.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Flather, Curtis H.

    2018-01-01

    AimConservation planning requires the prioritization of a subset of taxa and geographical locations to focus monitoring and management efforts. Integration of the threats and opportunities posed by climate change often relies on predictions from species distribution models, particularly for assessments of vulnerability or invasion risk for multiple taxa. We evaluated whether species distribution models could reliably rank changes in species range size under climate and land use change.LocationConterminous U.S.A.Time period1977–2014.Major taxa studiedPasserine birds.MethodsWe estimated ensembles of species distribution models based on historical North American Breeding Bird Survey occurrences for 190 songbirds, and generated predictions to recent years given c. 35 years of observed land use and climate change. We evaluated model predictions using standard metrics of discrimination performance and a more detailed assessment of the ability of models to rank species vulnerability to climate change based on predicted range loss, range gain, and overall change in range size.ResultsSpecies distribution models yielded unreliable and misleading assessments of relative vulnerability to climate and land use change. Models could not accurately predict range expansion or contraction, and therefore failed to anticipate patterns of range change among species. These failures occurred despite excellent overall discrimination ability and transferability to the validation time period, which reflected strong performance at the majority of locations that were either always or never occupied by each species.Main conclusionsModels failed for the questions and at the locations of greatest interest to conservation and management. This highlights potential pitfalls of multi-taxa impact assessments under global change; in our case, models provided misleading rankings of the most impacted species, and spatial information about range changes was not credible. As modelling methods and

  7. Using Water Quality Models in Management - A Multiple Model Assessment, Analysis of Confidence, and Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irby, Isaac David

    Human impacts on the Chesapeake Bay through increased nutrient run-off as a result of land-use change, urbanization, and industrialization, have resulted in a degradation of water quality over the last half-century. These direct impacts, compounded with human-induced climate changes such as warming, rising sea-level, and changes in precipitation, have elevated the conversation surrounding the future of water quality in the Bay. The overall goal of this dissertation project is to use a combination of models and data to better understand and quantify the impact of changes in nutrient loads and climate on water quality in the Chesapeake Bay. This research achieves that goal in three parts. First, a set of eight water quality models is used to establish a model mean and assess model skill. All models were found to exhibit similar skill in resolving dissolved oxygen concentrations as well as a number of dissolved oxygen-influencing variables (temperature, salinity, stratification, chlorophyll and nitrate) and the model mean exhibited the highest individual skill. The location of stratification within the water column was found to be a limiting factor in the models' ability to adequately simulate habitat compression resulting from low-oxygen conditions. Second, two of the previous models underwent the regulatory Chesapeake Bay pollution diet mandated by the Environmental Protection Agency. Both models exhibited a similar relative improvement in dissolved oxygen concentrations as a result of the reduction of nutrients stipulated in the pollution diet. A Confidence Index was developed to identify the locations of the Bay where the models are in agreement and disagreement regarding the impacts of the pollution diet. The models were least certain in the deep part of the upper main stem of the Bay and the uncertainty primarily stemmed from the post-processing methodology. Finally, by projecting the impacts of climate change in 2050 on the Bay, the potential success of the

  8. Assessing development pressure in the Chesapeake Bay watershed: an evaluation of two land-use change models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claggett, Peter R; Jantz, Claire A; Goetz, Scott J; Bisland, Carin

    2004-06-01

    Natural resource lands in the Chesapeake Bay watershed are increasingly susceptible to conversion into developed land uses, particularly as the demand for residential development grows. We assessed development pressure in the Baltimore-Washington, DC region, one of the major urban and suburban centers in the watershed. We explored the utility of two modeling approaches for forecasting future development trends and patterns by comparing results from a cellular automata model, SLEUTH (slope, land use, excluded land, urban extent, transportation), and a supply/demand/allocation model, the Western Futures Model. SLEUTH can be classified as a land-cover change model and produces projections on the basis of historic trends of changes in the extent and patterns of developed land and future land protection scenarios. The Western Futures Model derives forecasts from historic trends in housing units, a U.S. Census variable, and exogenously supplied future population projections. Each approach has strengths and weaknesses, and combining the two has advantages and limitations.

  9. Gap models and their individual-based relatives in the assessment of the consequences of global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shugart, Herman H.; Wang, Bin; Fischer, Rico; Ma, Jianyong; Fang, Jing; Yan, Xiaodong; Huth, Andreas; Armstrong, Amanda H.

    2018-03-01

    Individual-based models (IBMs) of complex systems emerged in the 1960s and early 1970s, across diverse disciplines from astronomy to zoology. Ecological IBMs arose with seemingly independent origins out of the tradition of understanding the ecosystems dynamics of ecosystems from a ‘bottom-up’ accounting of the interactions of the parts. Individual trees are principal among the parts of forests. Because these models are computationally demanding, they have prospered as the power of digital computers has increased exponentially over the decades following the 1970s. This review will focus on a class of forest IBMs called gap models. Gap models simulate the changes in forests by simulating the birth, growth and death of each individual tree on a small plot of land. The summation of these plots comprise a forest (or set of sample plots on a forested landscape or region). Other, more aggregated forest IBMs have been used in global applications including cohort-based models, ecosystem demography models, etc. Gap models have been used to provide the parameters for these bulk models. Currently, gap models have grown from local-scale to continental-scale and even global-scale applications to assess the potential consequences of climate change on natural forests. Modifications to the models have enabled simulation of disturbances including fire, insect outbreak and harvest. Our objective in this review is to provide the reader with an overview of the history, motivation and applications, including theoretical applications, of these models. In a time of concern over global changes, gap models are essential tools to understand forest responses to climate change, modified disturbance regimes and other change agents. Development of forest surveys to provide the starting points for simulations and better estimates of the behavior of the diversity of tree species in response to the environment are continuing needs for improvement for these and other IBMs.

  10. Sub-seasonal behaviour of Asian summer monsoon under a changing climate: assessments using CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sooraj, K. P.; Terray, Pascal; Xavier, Prince

    2016-06-01

    Numerous global warming studies show the anticipated increase in mean precipitation with the rising levels of carbon dioxide concentration. However, apart from the changes in mean precipitation, the finer details of daily precipitation distribution, such as its intensity and frequency (so called daily rainfall extremes), need to be accounted for while determining the impacts of climate changes in future precipitation regimes. Here we examine the climate model projections from a large set of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 models, to assess these future aspects of rainfall distribution over Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region. Our assessment unravels a north-south rainfall dipole pattern, with increased rainfall over Indian subcontinent extending into the western Pacific region (north ASM region, NASM) and decreased rainfall over equatorial oceanic convergence zone over eastern Indian Ocean region (south ASM region, SASM). This robust future pattern is well conspicuous at both seasonal and sub-seasonal time scales. Subsequent analysis, using daily rainfall events defined using percentile thresholds, demonstrates that mean rainfall changes over NASM region are mainly associated with more intense and more frequent extreme rainfall events (i.e. above 95th percentile). The inference is that there are significant future changes in rainfall probability distributions and not only a uniform shift in the mean rainfall over the NASM region. Rainfall suppression over SASM seems to be associated with changes involving multiple rainfall events and shows a larger model spread, thus making its interpretation more complex compared to NASM. Moisture budget diagnostics generally show that the low-level moisture convergence, due to stronger increase of water vapour in the atmosphere, acts positively to future rainfall changes, especially for heaviest rainfall events. However, it seems that the dynamic component of moisture convergence, associated with vertical motion, shows a

  11. Hydraulic model to assess the hydromorphological changes within the Danube Delta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CIOACĂ Eugenia

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Morphological changes of the hydrographic networks (rivers /channels /brooks /lakes as result of fluvial processes (erosion and alluvial sedimentation induce modification on hydrologic regime with positive /negative impacts on biodiversity. This paper aims at emphasizing the amplitude of these processes within the Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve (Romanian part inner hydrographic network, by means of the morphologic model, as maincomponent of 3D mathematical /hydraulic model. It is constructed based on geo-referenced database as resulted from hydraulicand bathymetric field measurements carried out within 2008-2010. Hydro-morphological changes are assessed by analyzingthose zones where fluvial processes have been identified to be active, meaning that specific hydraulic conditions are fulfilled,such as: water flow with high energy /high values of hydraulic parameters: level, speed, slope, and solid transport (upstream ofdelta: erosion followed by a decrease of these values (middle part: alluvia sedimentation and ending with very clear water at very low flow velocity (downstream of delta: no fluvial processes. Both erosion and, especially, alluvial sedimentation zones, in low water level conditions lead to disconnection of some channels /lakes generating ecological disequilibrium with negative impact on some flora and fauna species. Thus, the gained knowledge on the aquatic ecosystem function is used as scientific tool for decision making on a sound management of such an environment system in order to improve the quality of aquatic life by restoration of hydrographical network with impacts on habitats and overall ecological reconstruction.

  12. Distributed Hydrologic Modeling of Semiarid Basins in Arizona: A Platform for Land Cover and Climate Change Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, G. A.; Vivoni, E. R.

    2011-12-01

    Watershed management is challenged by rising concerns over climate change and its potential to interact with land cover alterations to impact regional water supplies and hydrologic processes. The inability to conduct experimental manipulations that address climate and land cover change at watershed scales limits the capacity of water managers to make decisions to protect future supplies. As a result, spatially-explicit, physically-based models possess value for predicting the possible consequences on watershed hydrology. In this study, we apply a distributed watershed model, the Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS), to the Beaver Creek basin in Arizona. This sub-basin of the Verde River is representative of the regional topography, land cover, soils distribution and availability of hydrologic data in forested regions of northern Arizona. As such, it can serve as a demonstration study in the broader region to illustrate the utility of distributed models for change assessment studies. Through a model application to summertime conditions, we compare the hydrologic response from three sources of meteorological input: (1) an available network of ground-based stations, (2) weather radar rainfall estimates, and (3) the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Comparisons focus on analysis of spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation, soil moisture, runoff generation, evapotranspiration and recharge from the root zone at high resolution for an assessment of sustainable water supplies for agricultural and domestic purposes. We also present a preliminary analysis of the impact of vegetation change arising from historical treatments in the Beaver Creek to inform the hydrologic consequences in the form of soil moisture and evapotranspiration patterns with differing degrees of proposed forest thinning. Our results are discussed in the context of improved hydrologic predictions for sustainability and decision

  13. Ecosystem Model Skill Assessment. Yes We Can!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Erik; Fay, Gavin; Gaichas, Sarah; Gamble, Robert; Lucey, Sean; Link, Jason S

    2016-01-01

    Accelerated changes to global ecosystems call for holistic and integrated analyses of past, present and future states under various pressures to adequately understand current and projected future system states. Ecosystem models can inform management of human activities in a complex and changing environment, but are these models reliable? Ensuring that models are reliable for addressing management questions requires evaluating their skill in representing real-world processes and dynamics. Skill has been evaluated for just a limited set of some biophysical models. A range of skill assessment methods have been reviewed but skill assessment of full marine ecosystem models has not yet been attempted. We assessed the skill of the Northeast U.S. (NEUS) Atlantis marine ecosystem model by comparing 10-year model forecasts with observed data. Model forecast performance was compared to that obtained from a 40-year hindcast. Multiple metrics (average absolute error, root mean squared error, modeling efficiency, and Spearman rank correlation), and a suite of time-series (species biomass, fisheries landings, and ecosystem indicators) were used to adequately measure model skill. Overall, the NEUS model performed above average and thus better than expected for the key species that had been the focus of the model tuning. Model forecast skill was comparable to the hindcast skill, showing that model performance does not degenerate in a 10-year forecast mode, an important characteristic for an end-to-end ecosystem model to be useful for strategic management purposes. We identify best-practice approaches for end-to-end ecosystem model skill assessment that would improve both operational use of other ecosystem models and future model development. We show that it is possible to not only assess the skill of a complicated marine ecosystem model, but that it is necessary do so to instill confidence in model results and encourage their use for strategic management. Our methods are applicable

  14. Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Kørnøv, Lone; Driscoll, Patrick Arthur

    2013-01-01

    This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies...

  15. Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balances and Flooding Conditions of Peninsular Malaysia watersheds by a Coupled Numerical Climate Model - Watershed Hydrology Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercan, A.; Kavvas, M. L.; Ishida, K.; Chen, Z. Q.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over various watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model that utilized an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional numerical climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions at the selected watersheds during the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90 years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant at the selected watersheds. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for the selected watersheds indicate an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century.

  16. Effect of changes over time in the performance of a customized SAPS-II model on the quality of care assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Minne, Lilian; Eslami, Saeid; de Keizer, Nicolette; de Jonge, Evert; de Rooij, Sophia E.; Abu-Hanna, Ameen

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of our study was to explore, using an innovative method, the effect of temporal changes in the mortality prediction performance of an existing model on the quality of care assessment. The prognostic model (rSAPS-II) was a recalibrated Simplified Acute Physiology Score-II model

  17. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Idaho National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christopher P. Ischay; Ernest L. Fossum; Polly C. Buotte; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Alexander Peterson

    2014-10-01

    The University of Idaho (UI) was asked to participate in the development of a climate change vulnerability assessment for Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This report describes the outcome of that assessment. The climate change happening now, due in large part to human activities, is expected to continue in the future. UI and INL used a common framework for assessing vulnerability that considers exposure (future climate change), sensitivity (system or component responses to climate), impact (exposure combined with sensitivity), and adaptive capacity (capability of INL to modify operations to minimize climate change impacts) to assess vulnerability. Analyses of climate change (exposure) revealed that warming that is ongoing at INL will continue in the coming decades, with increased warming in later decades and under scenarios of greater greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of precipitation are more uncertain, with multi model means exhibiting somewhat wetter conditions and more wet days per year. Additional impacts relevant to INL include estimates of more burned area and increased evaporation and transpiration, leading to reduced soil moisture and plant growth.

  18. Assessment of long-term channel changes in the Mekong River using remote sensing and a channel-evolution model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyazawa, N.

    2011-12-01

    River-channel changes are a key factor affecting physical, ecological and management issues in the fluvial environment. In this study, long-term channel changes in the Mekong River were assessed using remote sensing and a channel-evolution model. A channel-evolution model for calculating long-term channel changes of a measndering river was developed using a previous fluid-dynamic model [Zolezzi and Seminara, 2001], and was applied in order to quantify channel changes of two meandering reaches in the Mekong River. Quite few attempts have been made so far to combine remote sensing observation of meandering planform change with the application of channel evolution models within relatively small-scale gravel-bed systems in humid temperate regions. The novel point of the present work is to link state-of-art meandering planform evolution model with observed morphological changes within large-scale sand-bed rivers with higher bank height in tropical monsoonal climate regions, which are the highly dynamic system, and assess the performance. Unstable extents of the reaches could be historically identified using remote-sensing technique. The instability caused i) bank erosion and accretion of meander bends and ii) movement or development of bars and changes in the flow around the bars. The remote sensing measurements indicate that maximum erosion occurred downstream of the maximum curvature of the river-center line in both reaches. The model simulations indicates that under the mean annual peak discharge the maximum of excess longitudinal velocity near the banks occurs downstream of the maximum curvature in both reaches. The channel migration coefficients of the reaches were calibrated by comparing remote-sensing measurements and model simulations. The diffrence in the migration coefficients between both reaches depends on the diffrence in bank height rather than the geotechnical properties of floodplain sediments. Possible eroded floodplain areas and accreted floodplain

  19. assessing climate change impacts on river hydrology

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    71

    model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), in order to evaluate the effect of climate. 24 change on rainfall ... to project future climate data based on the CO2 emission scenarios.The RCMs are of finer ..... Springer Science+Business. 2.

  20. Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gillingham, Kenneth; Nordhaus, William; Anthoff, David; Blanford, Geoffrey J.; Bosetti, Valentina; Christensen, Peter; McJeon, Haewon C.; Reilly, J. M.; Sztorc, Paul

    2015-10-01

    The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity and estimates the pdfs of key output variables, including CO2 concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insight on tail events.

  1. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baruffi, F.; Cisotto, A.; Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M.; Pretner, A.; Galli, A.; Scarinci, A.; Marsala, V.; Panelli, C.; Gualdi, S.; Bucchignani, E.; Torresan, S.; Pasini, S.; Critto, A.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961–1990 and the projection period 2010–2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071–2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble

  2. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baruffi, F. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cisotto, A., E-mail: segreteria@adbve.it [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Pretner, A.; Galli, A. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Scarinci, A., E-mail: andrea.scarinci@sgi-spa.it [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Marsala, V.; Panelli, C. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Gualdi, S., E-mail: silvio.gualdi@bo.ingv.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Bucchignani, E., E-mail: e.bucchignani@cira.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Torresan, S., E-mail: torresan@cmcc.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Pasini, S., E-mail: sara.pasini@stud.unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); Critto, A., E-mail: critto@unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); and others

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

  3. Use of regularized principal component analysis to model anatomical changes during head and neck radiation therapy for treatment adaptation and response assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chetvertkov, Mikhail A.; Siddiqui, Farzan; Chetty, Indrin; Kumarasiri, Akila; Liu, Chang; Gordon, J. James; Kim, Jinkoo

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To develop standard (SPCA) and regularized (RPCA) principal component analysis models of anatomical changes from daily cone beam CTs (CBCTs) of head and neck (H&N) patients and assess their potential use in adaptive radiation therapy, and for extracting quantitative information for treatment response assessment. Methods: Planning CT images of ten H&N patients were artificially deformed to create “digital phantom” images, which modeled systematic anatomical changes during radiation therapy. Artificial deformations closely mirrored patients’ actual deformations and were interpolated to generate 35 synthetic CBCTs, representing evolving anatomy over 35 fractions. Deformation vector fields (DVFs) were acquired between pCT and synthetic CBCTs (i.e., digital phantoms) and between pCT and clinical CBCTs. Patient-specific SPCA and RPCA models were built from these synthetic and clinical DVF sets. EigenDVFs (EDVFs) having the largest eigenvalues were hypothesized to capture the major anatomical deformations during treatment. Results: Principal component analysis (PCA) models achieve variable results, depending on the size and location of anatomical change. Random changes prevent or degrade PCA’s ability to detect underlying systematic change. RPCA is able to detect smaller systematic changes against the background of random fraction-to-fraction changes and is therefore more successful than SPCA at capturing systematic changes early in treatment. SPCA models were less successful at modeling systematic changes in clinical patient images, which contain a wider range of random motion than synthetic CBCTs, while the regularized approach was able to extract major modes of motion. Conclusions: Leading EDVFs from the both PCA approaches have the potential to capture systematic anatomical change during H&N radiotherapy when systematic changes are large enough with respect to random fraction-to-fraction changes. In all cases the RPCA approach appears to be more

  4. Use of regularized principal component analysis to model anatomical changes during head and neck radiation therapy for treatment adaptation and response assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chetvertkov, Mikhail A., E-mail: chetvertkov@wayne.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Wayne State University School of Medicine, Detroit, Michigan 48201 and Department of Radiation Oncology, Henry Ford Health System, Detroit, Michigan 48202 (United States); Siddiqui, Farzan; Chetty, Indrin; Kumarasiri, Akila; Liu, Chang; Gordon, J. James [Department of Radiation Oncology, Henry Ford Health System, Detroit, Michigan 48202 (United States); Kim, Jinkoo [Department of Radiation Oncology, Stony Brook University Hospital, Stony Brook, New York 11794 (United States)

    2016-10-15

    Purpose: To develop standard (SPCA) and regularized (RPCA) principal component analysis models of anatomical changes from daily cone beam CTs (CBCTs) of head and neck (H&N) patients and assess their potential use in adaptive radiation therapy, and for extracting quantitative information for treatment response assessment. Methods: Planning CT images of ten H&N patients were artificially deformed to create “digital phantom” images, which modeled systematic anatomical changes during radiation therapy. Artificial deformations closely mirrored patients’ actual deformations and were interpolated to generate 35 synthetic CBCTs, representing evolving anatomy over 35 fractions. Deformation vector fields (DVFs) were acquired between pCT and synthetic CBCTs (i.e., digital phantoms) and between pCT and clinical CBCTs. Patient-specific SPCA and RPCA models were built from these synthetic and clinical DVF sets. EigenDVFs (EDVFs) having the largest eigenvalues were hypothesized to capture the major anatomical deformations during treatment. Results: Principal component analysis (PCA) models achieve variable results, depending on the size and location of anatomical change. Random changes prevent or degrade PCA’s ability to detect underlying systematic change. RPCA is able to detect smaller systematic changes against the background of random fraction-to-fraction changes and is therefore more successful than SPCA at capturing systematic changes early in treatment. SPCA models were less successful at modeling systematic changes in clinical patient images, which contain a wider range of random motion than synthetic CBCTs, while the regularized approach was able to extract major modes of motion. Conclusions: Leading EDVFs from the both PCA approaches have the potential to capture systematic anatomical change during H&N radiotherapy when systematic changes are large enough with respect to random fraction-to-fraction changes. In all cases the RPCA approach appears to be more

  5. Climate change decision-making: Model & parameter uncertainties explored

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Linville, C.

    1995-12-31

    A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives, and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.1. This model includes representation of the processes of demographics, economic activity, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate and sea level change and impacts from these changes and policies for emissions mitigation, and adaptation to change. The model has over 800 objects of which about one half are used to represent uncertainty. In this paper we show, that when considering parameter uncertainties, the relative contribution of climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. When considering model structure uncertainties we find that the choice of policy is often dominated by model structure choice, rather than parameter uncertainties.

  6. One-way coupling of an integrated assessment model and a water resources model: evaluation and implications of future changes over the US Midwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voisin, N.; Liu, L.; Hejazi, M.; Tesfa, T.; Li, H.; Huang, M.; Liu, Y.; Leung, L. R.

    2013-11-01

    An integrated model is being developed to advance our understanding of the interactions between human activities, terrestrial system and water cycle, and to evaluate how system interactions will be affected by a changing climate at the regional scale. As a first step towards that goal, a global integrated assessment model, which includes a water-demand model driven by socioeconomics at regional and global scales, is coupled in a one-way fashion with a land surface hydrology-routing-water resources management model. To reconcile the scale differences between the models, a spatial and temporal disaggregation approach is developed to downscale the annual regional water demand simulations into a daily time step and subbasin representation. The model demonstrates reasonable ability to represent the historical flow regulation and water supply over the US Midwest (Missouri, Upper Mississippi, and Ohio river basins). Implications for future flow regulation, water supply, and supply deficit are investigated using climate change projections with the B1 and A2 emission scenarios, which affect both natural flow and water demand. Although natural flow is projected to increase under climate change in both the B1 and A2 scenarios, there is larger uncertainty in the changes of the regulated flow. Over the Ohio and Upper Mississippi river basins, changes in flow regulation are driven by the change in natural flow due to the limited storage capacity. However, both changes in flow and demand have effects on the Missouri River Basin summer regulated flow. Changes in demand are driven by socioeconomic factors, energy and food demands, global markets and prices with rainfed crop demand handled directly by the land surface modeling component. Even though most of the changes in supply deficit (unmet demand) and the actual supply (met demand) are driven primarily by the change in natural flow over the entire region, the integrated framework shows that supply deficit over the Missouri River

  7. Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen, E-mail: sannevl@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University-Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers Vænge 15, 2450 København SV (Denmark); Kørnøv, Lone, E-mail: lonek@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University, Skibbrogade 5, 1. Sal, 9000 Aalborg (Denmark); Driscoll, Patrick, E-mail: patrick@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University-Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers Vænge 15, 2450 København SV (Denmark)

    2013-11-15

    This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies ‘reduction’ and ‘resilience’, ‘denying’, ‘ignoring’ and ‘postponing’. Second, 151 Danish SEAs are analysed with a focus on the extent to which climate change uncertainties are acknowledged and presented, and the empirical findings are discussed in relation to the model. The findings indicate that despite incentives to do so, climate change uncertainties were systematically avoided or downplayed in all but 5 of the 151 SEAs that were reviewed. Finally, two possible explanatory mechanisms are proposed to explain this: conflict avoidance and a need to quantify uncertainty.

  8. Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Kørnøv, Lone; Driscoll, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies ‘reduction’ and ‘resilience’, ‘denying’, ‘ignoring’ and ‘postponing’. Second, 151 Danish SEAs are analysed with a focus on the extent to which climate change uncertainties are acknowledged and presented, and the empirical findings are discussed in relation to the model. The findings indicate that despite incentives to do so, climate change uncertainties were systematically avoided or downplayed in all but 5 of the 151 SEAs that were reviewed. Finally, two possible explanatory mechanisms are proposed to explain this: conflict avoidance and a need to quantify uncertainty

  9. Application of the HBV model for assessment of climate change impacts on the elements of hydrological cycle for the Struma River Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stanev, Krassimir

    2004-01-01

    The model used in this report is a version of the HBV model developed for the project Climate Change and Energy Production, a Nordic project aimed at evaluating the impacts of climate change on the water resources. It has a simple vegetation parametrization including interception, temperature based evapotranspiration. calculations, lake evaporation, lake routing, glacier mass balance simulation, special functions for climate change simulations etc. The HBV model, originally developed at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute in the first half of the seventies (Bergstroem 1976) has gained widespread use for a large range of applications both in Scandinavia and beyond. It can be classified as a semi-distributed conceptual model. The version described in this report was developed for the Nordic project 'Climate change and Energy Production' (Saelthun 1996), as a synthesis of several versions used in the different Nordic countries. The main input variables are the average daily temperature, daily totals of the precipitation, the potential evapotranspiration and the daily discharges. The HBV model was applied for assessment of climate change impacts on the elements of hydrological cycle for the Struma river basin. The river Struma flows from North to South up to the Aegean Sea. Considerable part of the river basin is situated in northwest part of Bulgaria, heaving an area of more than 10 000 km 2 and average elevation about 900m asl (cross-section Marino pole). The period of 16 years (1973-1988), four precipitation and temperature stations were used for the model parameters evaluation. The achieved value of R 2 (Nash criterion) is 0.55. The climate change impact calculations (monthly values of temperatures change in o C and precipitation change in %) for two scenarios were used for the input data correction to the HBV model. The obtained results are promising and they show the potential possibility for the HBV model use to assess the climate change

  10. Modelling environmental change in Europe: towards a model inventory (SEIS/Forward)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Annekathrin; Henrichs, Thomas

    This technical report provides a non-exhaustive overview of modelling tools currently available to simulate future environmental change at a European scale. Modelling tools have become an important cornerstone of environmental assessments, and play an important role in providing the data......, many of which have been used by the European Environment Agency in its recent environmental assessments and reports, a limited number of which are described in more detail. This review identifies gaps in the availability, accessibility and applicability of current modelling tools, and stresses the need...

  11. Assessment of land-use change on streamflow using GIS, remote sensing and a physically-based model, SWAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Y. G. Dos Santos

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to assess the impact of the land-use changes between the periods 1967−1974 and 1997−2008 on the streamflow of Tapacurá catchment (northeastern Brazil using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model. The results show that the most sensitive parameters were the baseflow, Manning factor, time of concentration and soil evaporation compensation factor, which affect the catchment hydrology. The model calibration and validation were performed on a monthly basis, and the streamflow simulation showed a good level of accuracy for both periods. The obtained R2 and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values for each period were respectively 0.82 and 0.81 for 1967−1974, and 0.93 and 0.92 for the period 1997−2008. The evaluation of the SWAT model response to the land cover has shown that the mean monthly flow, during the rainy seasons for 1967−1974, decreased when compared to 1997−2008.

  12. Managing changes in the enterprise architecture modelling context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanh Dam, Hoa; Lê, Lam-Son; Ghose, Aditya

    2016-07-01

    Enterprise architecture (EA) models the whole enterprise in various aspects regarding both business processes and information technology resources. As the organisation grows, the architecture of its systems and processes must also evolve to meet the demands of the business environment. Evolving an EA model may involve making changes to various components across different levels of the EA. As a result, an important issue before making a change to an EA model is assessing the ripple effect of the change, i.e. change impact analysis. Another critical issue is change propagation: given a set of primary changes that have been made to the EA model, what additional secondary changes are needed to maintain consistency across multiple levels of the EA. There has been however limited work on supporting the maintenance and evolution of EA models. This article proposes an EA description language, namely ChangeAwareHierarchicalEA, integrated with an evolution framework to support both change impact analysis and change propagation within an EA model. The core part of our framework is a technique for computing the impact of a change and a new method for generating interactive repair plans from Alloy consistency rules that constrain the EA model.

  13. Climate change vulnerability for species-Assessing the assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheatley, Christopher J; Beale, Colin M; Bradbury, Richard B; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Critchlow, Rob; Thomas, Chris D

    2017-09-01

    Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate-threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend-based rather than purely trait-based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua

    2015-01-01

    The combination of a warming Earth and an increasing population will likely strain the world's food systems in the coming decades. Experts involved with the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) focus on quantifying the changes through time. AgMIP, a program begun in 2010, involves about 800 climate scientists, economists, nutritionists, information technology specialists, and crop and livestock experts. In mid-September 2015, the Aspen Global Change Institute convened an AgMIP workshop to draft plans and protocols for assessing global- and regional-scale modeling of crops, livestock, economics, and nutrition across major agricultural regions worldwide. The goal of this Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments (CGRA) project is to characterize climate effects on large- and small-scale farming systems.

  15. Applying Bayesian modelling to assess climate change effects on biofuel production

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Peter, C

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available the resilience of a strategy that meets the new South African national biofuel production target can be assessed in relation to climate change. Cross-disciplinary consideration of variables may be enhanced through the sensitivity analysis enabled by Bayesian...

  16. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozano, Olga M; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Arca, Bachisio; Alcasena, Fermin J; Monteiro, Antonio T; Finney, Mark A; Del Giudice, Liliana; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Spano, Donatella

    2017-10-01

    We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041-2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Climate Change Modelling and Its Roles to Chinese Crops Yield

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JU Hui; LIN Er-da; Tim Wheeler; Andrew Challinor; JIANG Shuai

    2013-01-01

    Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability. Understanding the interactions between climate change and agricultural production is essential for society stable development of China. The first mission is to fully understand how to predict future climate and link it with agriculture production system. In this paper, recent studies both domestic and international are reviewed in order to provide an overall image of the progress in climate change researches. The methods for climate change scenarios construction are introduced. The pivotal techniques linking crop model and climate models are systematically assessed and climate change impacts on Chinese crops yield among model results are summarized. The study found that simulated productions of grain crop inherit uncertainty from using different climate models, emission scenarios and the crops simulation models. Moreover, studies have different spatial resolutions, and methods for general circulation model (GCM) downscaling which increase the uncertainty for regional impacts assessment. However, the magnitude of change in crop production due to climate change (at 700 ppm CO2 eq correct) appears within ±10%for China in these assessments. In most literatures, the three cereal crop yields showed decline under climate change scenarios and only wheat in some region showed increase. Finally, the paper points out several gaps in current researches which need more studies to shorten the distance for objective recognizing the impacts of climate change on crops. The uncertainty for crop yield projection is associated with climate change scenarios, CO2 fertilization effects and adaptation options. Therefore, more studies on the fields such as free air CO2 enrichment experiment and practical adaptations implemented need to be carried out.

  18. Advanced energy technologies and climate change: An analysis using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edmonds, J.; Wise, M.; MacCracken, C.

    1994-01-01

    The authors report results from a ''top down'' energy-economy model employing ''bottom up'' assumptions and embedded in an integrated assessment framework, GCAM. The analysis shows that, from the perspective of long-term energy system development, differences in results from the ''top down'' and ''bottom up'' research communities would appear to be more closely linked to differences in assumptions regarding the economic cost associated with advanced technologies than to differences in modeling approach. The adoption of assumptions regarding advanced energy technologies were shown to have a profound effect on the future rate of anthropogenic climate change. The cumulative effect of the five sets of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv, the point at which atmospheric concentrations are double those that existed in the middle of the eighteenth century. The consideration of all greenhouse gases, and in particular sulfur, leads to some extremely interesting results that the rapid deployment of advanced energy technologies leads to higher temperatures prior to 2050 than in the reference case. This is due to the fact that the advanced energy technologies reduce sulfur emissions as well as those of carbon. The short-term cooling impact of sulfur dominates the long-term warming impact of CO 2 and CH 4 . While all energy technologies play roles, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology plays a particularly important role. 16 refs., 12 figs., 3 tabs

  19. Change Agents & Impact Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kørnøv, Lone; Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Hansen, Anne Merrild

    2010-01-01

    One of the challenges facing impact assessment is finding ways to work in research and practice that allow appropriate action and critical interrogation og action to enable and support sustainable change.......One of the challenges facing impact assessment is finding ways to work in research and practice that allow appropriate action and critical interrogation og action to enable and support sustainable change....

  20. Hydrological Assessment of Model Performance and Scenario Analyses of Land Use Change and Climate Change in lowlands of Veneto Region (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pijl, Anton; Brauer, Claudia; Sofia, Giulia; Teuling, Ryan; Tarolli, Paolo

    2017-04-01

    Growing water-related challenges in lowland areas of the world call for good assessment of our past and present actions, in order to guide our future decisions. The novel Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS; Brauer et al., 2014) was developed to simulate hydrological processes and has showed promising performance in recent studies in the Netherlands. Here the model was applied to a coastal basin of 2800 ha in the Veneto Region (northern Italy) to test model performance and evaluate scenario analyses of land use change and climate change. Located partially below sea-level, the reclaimed area is facing persistent land transformation and climate change trends, which alter not only the processes in the catchment but also the demands from it (Tarolli and Sofia, 2016). Firstly results of the calibration (NSE = 0.77; year simulation, daily resolution) and validation (NSE = 0.53; idem) showed that the model is able to reproduce the dominant hydrological processes of this lowland area (e.g. discharge and groundwater fluxes). Land use scenarios between 1951 and 2060 were constructed using demographic models, supported by orthographic interpretation techniques. Climate scenarios were constructed by historical records and future projections by COSMO-CLM regional climate model (Rockel et al., 2008) under the RCP4.5 pathway. WALRUS simulations showed that the land use changes result in a wetter catchment with more discharge, and the climatic changes cause more extremes with longer droughts and stronger rain events. These changes combined show drier summers (-33{%} rainfall, +27{%} soil moisture deficit) and wetter (+13{%} rainfall) and intenser (+30{%} rain intensity) autumn and winters in the future. The simulated discharge regime -particularly peak flow- follows these polarising trends, in good agreement with similar studies in the geographical zone (e.g. Vezzoli et al., 2015). This will increase the pressure on the fully-artificial drainage and agricultural systems

  1. Assessing climate change impacts on water balance in the Mount

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A statistical downscaling known for producing station-scale climate information from GCM output was preferred to evaluate the impacts of climate change within the Mount Makiling forest watershed, Philippines. The lumped hydrologic BROOK90 model was utilized for the water balance assessment of climate change ...

  2. Assessing the impact of future climate change on groundwater recharge in Galicia-Costa, Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raposo, Juan Ramón; Dafonte, Jorge; Molinero, Jorge

    2013-03-01

    Climate change can impact the hydrological processes of a watershed and may result in problems with future water supply for large sections of the population. Results from the FP5 PRUDENCE project suggest significant changes in temperature and precipitation over Europe. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in the hydrological district of Galicia-Costa, Spain. Climate projections from two general circulation models and eight different regional climate models were used for the assessment and two climate-change scenarios were evaluated. Calibration and validation of the model were performed using a daily time-step in four representative catchments in the district. The effects on modeled mean annual groundwater recharge are small, partly due to the greater stomatal efficiency of plants in response to increased CO2 concentration. However, climate change strongly influences the temporal variability of modeled groundwater recharge. Recharge may concentrate in the winter season and dramatically decrease in the summer-autumn season. As a result, the dry-season duration may be increased on average by almost 30 % for the A2 emission scenario, exacerbating the current problems in water supply.

  3. National assessment of shoreline change: Historical shoreline change in the Hawaiian Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Charles H.; Romine, Bradley M.; Genz, Ayesha S.; Barbee, Matthew M.; Dyer, Matthew; Anderson, Tiffany R.; Lim, S. Chyn; Vitousek, Sean; Bochicchio, Christopher; Richmond, Bruce M.

    2012-01-01

    Sandy beaches of the United States are some of the most popular tourist and recreational destinations. Coastal property constitutes some of the most valuable real estate in the country. Beaches are an ephemeral environment between water and land with unique and fragile natural ecosystems that have evolved in equilibrium with the ever-changing winds, waves, and water levels. Beachfront lands are the site of intense residential and commercial development even though they are highly vulnerable to several natural hazards, including marine inundation, flooding and drainage problems, effects of storms, sea-level rise, and coastal erosion. Because the U.S. population continues to shift toward the coast where valuable coastal property is vulnerable to erosion, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting a national assessment of coastal change. One aspect of this effort, the National Assessment of Shoreline Change, uses shoreline position as a proxy for coastal change because shoreline position is one of the most commonly monitored indicators of environmental change (for example, Fletcher, 1992; Dolan and others, 1991; Douglas and others, 1998; Galgano and others, 1998). Additionally, the National Research Council (1990) recommended the use of historical shoreline analysis in the absence of a widely accepted model of shoreline change.

  4. Coupled water-energy modelling to assess climate change impacts on the Iberian Power System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pereira Cardenal, Silvio Javier; Madsen, H.; Riegels, N.

    and marginal costs of the power producers. Two effects of climate change on the power system were studied: changes in the hydropower production caused by changes in precipitation and temperature, and changes in the electricity demand over the year caused by temperature changes. A rainfall-runoff model......Water resources systems and power systems are strongly linked; water is needed for most power generation technologies, and electricity is required in every stage of water usage. In the Iberian Peninsula, climate change is expected to have a negative impact on the power system: changes in runoff...... was established to estimate the impact of precipitation and temperature changes on reservoir inflows. The model was calibrated using observed precipitation, temperature and river discharge time series. Potential evapotranspiration was estimated from temperature data, and snow accumulation/melt was modelled using...

  5. Adaptation in integrated assessment modeling: where do we stand?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Patt, A.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Berkhout, F.G.H.; Aaheim, A.; Hof, A.F.; Isaac, M.; Mechler, R.

    2010-01-01

    Adaptation is an important element on the climate change policy agenda. Integrated assessment models, which are key tools to assess climate change policies, have begun to address adaptation, either by including it implicitly in damage cost estimates, or by making it an explicit control variable. We

  6. Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is likely to affect the water cycle by influencing the precipitation patterns. It is important to integrate the anticipated changes into the design of urban drainage in response to the increased risk level in cities. This paper presents a pluvial flood risk assessment framework...... to identify and assess adaptation options in the urban context. An integrated approach is adopted by incorporating climate change impact assessment, flood inundation modeling, economic tool, and risk assessment, hereby developing a step-by-step process for cost-benefit assessment of climate change adaptation...

  7. Improving sub-pixel imperviousness change prediction by ensembling heterogeneous non-linear regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drzewiecki, Wojciech

    2016-12-01

    In this work nine non-linear regression models were compared for sub-pixel impervious surface area mapping from Landsat images. The comparison was done in three study areas both for accuracy of imperviousness coverage evaluation in individual points in time and accuracy of imperviousness change assessment. The performance of individual machine learning algorithms (Cubist, Random Forest, stochastic gradient boosting of regression trees, k-nearest neighbors regression, random k-nearest neighbors regression, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, averaged neural networks, and support vector machines with polynomial and radial kernels) was also compared with the performance of heterogeneous model ensembles constructed from the best models trained using particular techniques. The results proved that in case of sub-pixel evaluation the most accurate prediction of change may not necessarily be based on the most accurate individual assessments. When single methods are considered, based on obtained results Cubist algorithm may be advised for Landsat based mapping of imperviousness for single dates. However, Random Forest may be endorsed when the most reliable evaluation of imperviousness change is the primary goal. It gave lower accuracies for individual assessments, but better prediction of change due to more correlated errors of individual predictions. Heterogeneous model ensembles performed for individual time points assessments at least as well as the best individual models. In case of imperviousness change assessment the ensembles always outperformed single model approaches. It means that it is possible to improve the accuracy of sub-pixel imperviousness change assessment using ensembles of heterogeneous non-linear regression models.

  8. Structural modelling of economic growth: Technological changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sukharev Oleg

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Neoclassical and Keynesian theories of economic growth assume the use of Cobb-Douglas modified functions and other aggregate econometric approaches to growth dynamics modelling. In that case explanations of economic growth are based on the logic of the used mathematical ratios often including the ideas about aggregated values change and factors change a priori. The idea of assessment of factor productivity is the fundamental one among modern theories of economic growth. Nevertheless, structural parameters of economic system, institutions and technological changes are practically not considered within known approaches, though the latter is reflected in the changing parameters of production function. At the same time, on the one hand, the ratio of structural elements determines the future value of the total productivity of the factors and, on the other hand, strongly influences the rate of economic growth and its mode of innovative dynamics. To put structural parameters of economic system into growth models with the possibility of assessment of such modes under conditions of interaction of new and old combinations is an essential step in the development of the theory of economic growth/development. It allows forming stimulation policy of economic growth proceeding from the structural ratios and relations recognized for this economic system. It is most convenient in such models to use logistic functions demonstrating the resource change for old and new combination within the economic system. The result of economy development depends on starting conditions, and on institutional parameters of velocity change of resource borrowing in favour of a new combination and creation of its own resource. Model registration of the resource is carried out through the idea of investments into new and old combinations.

  9. Adaptation in integrated assessment modeling: where do we stand?

    OpenAIRE

    Patt, A.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Berkhout, F.G.H.; Aaheim, A.; Hof, A.F.; Isaac, M.; Mechler, R.

    2010-01-01

    Adaptation is an important element on the climate change policy agenda. Integrated assessment models, which are key tools to assess climate change policies, have begun to address adaptation, either by including it implicitly in damage cost estimates, or by making it an explicit control variable. We analyze how modelers have chosen to describe adaptation within an integrated framework, and suggest many ways they could improve the treatment of adaptation by considering more of its bottom-up cha...

  10. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Dawson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment priorities for adaptation. The three examples explore interdependencies that arise from (1 climate loading dependence; (2 mediation of two climate impacts by physical processes operating over large spatial extents; and, (3 multiple risks that are influenced by shared climatic and socio-economic drivers. Drawing upon learning from these case studies, and other work, a framework for the analysis and consideration of interdependencies in climate change risk assessment has been developed. This is an iterative learning loop that involves defining the system, scoping interaction mechanisms, applying appropriate modelling tools, identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities, and assessing the performance of adaptation interventions.

  11. Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation using an economic pluvial flood risk framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    It is anticipated that climate change is likely to lead to an increasing risk level of flooding in cities in northern Europe. One challenging question is how to best address the increasing flood risk and assess the costs and benefits of adapting to such changes. We established an integrated...... approach for identification and assessment of climate change adaptation options by incorporating climate change impacts, flood inundation modelling, economic tool and risk assessment and management. The framework is further extended and adapted by embedding a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the total...

  12. Assessment of Cortical and Trabecular Bone Changes in Two Models of Post-Traumatic Osteoarthritis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pauly, Hannah M; Larson, Blair E; Coatney, Garrett A; Button, Keith D.; DeCamp, Charlie E; Fajardo, Ryan S; Haut, Roger C; Donahue, Tammy L Haut

    2015-01-01

    Subchondral bone is thought to play a significant role in the initiation and progression of the post-traumatic osteoarthritis. The goal of this study was to document changes in tibial and femoral subchondral bone that occur as a result of two lapine models of anterior cruciate ligament injury, a modified ACL transection model and a closed-joint traumatic compressive impact model. Twelve weeks post-injury bones were scanned via micro-computed tomography. The subchondral bone of injured limbs from both models showed decreases in bone volume and bone mineral density. Surgical transection animals showed significant bone changes primarily in the medial hemijoint of femurs and tibias, while significant changes were noted in both the medial and lateral hemijoints of both bones for traumatic impact animals. It is believed that subchondral bone changes in the medial hemijoint were likely caused by compromised soft tissue structures seen in both models. Subchondral bone changes in the lateral hemijoint of traumatic impact animals are thought to be due to transmission of the compressive impact force through the joint. The joint-wide bone changes shown in the traumatic impact model were similar to clinical findings from studies investigating the progression of osteoarthritis in humans. PMID:26147652

  13. Description of Adults Seeking Hearing Help for the First Time According to Two Health Behavior Change Approaches: Transtheoretical Model (Stages of Change) and Health Belief Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saunders, Gabrielle H; Frederick, Melissa T; Silverman, ShienPei C; Nielsen, Claus; Laplante-Lévesque, Ariane

    2016-01-01

    Several models of health behavior change are commonly used in health psychology. This study applied the constructs delineated by two models-the transtheoretical model (in which readiness for health behavior change can be described with the stages of precontemplation, contemplation and action) and the health belief model (in which susceptibility, severity, benefits, barriers, self-efficacy, and cues to action are thought to determine likelihood of health behavior change)-to adults seeking hearing help for the first time. One hundred eighty-two participants (mean age: 69.5 years) were recruited following an initial hearing assessment by an audiologist. Participants' mean four-frequency pure-tone average was 35.4 dB HL, with 25.8% having no hearing impairment, 50.5% having a slight impairment, and 23.1% having a moderate or severe impairment using the World Health Organization definition of hearing loss. Participants' hearing-related attitudes and beliefs toward hearing health behaviors were examined using the University of Rhode Island Change Assessment (URICA) and the health beliefs questionnaire (HBQ), which assess the constructs of the transtheoretical model and the health belief model, respectively. Participants also provided demographic information, and completed the hearing handicap inventory (HHI) to assess participation restrictions, and the psychosocial impact of hearing loss (PIHL) to assess the extent to which hearing impacts competence, self-esteem, and adaptability. Degree of hearing impairment was associated with participation restrictions, perceived competence, self-esteem and adaptability, and attitudes and beliefs measured by the URICA and the HBQ. As degree of impairment increased, participation restrictions measured by the HHI, and impacts of hearing loss, as measured by the PIHL, increased. The majority of first-time help seekers in this study were in the action stage of change. Furthermore, relative to individuals with less hearing impairment

  14. Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofaer, Helen R; Barsugli, Joseph J; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Abatzoglou, John T; Talbert, Marian K; Miller, Brian W; Morisette, Jeffrey T

    2017-07-01

    Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive - such as means or extremes - can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the 'model space' approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Assessment of Climate Change Effects on Shahcheraghi Reservoir Inflow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. E. Banihabib

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Forecasting the inflow to the reservoir is important issues due to the limited water resources and the importance of optimal utilization of reservoirs to meet the need for drinking, industry and agriculture in future time periods. In the meantime, ignoring the effects of climate change on meteorological and hydrological parameters and water resources in long-term planning of water resources cause inaccuracy. It is essential to assess the impact of climate change on reservoir operation in arid regions. In this research, climate change impact on hydrological and meteorological variables of the Shahcheragh dam basin, in Semnan Province, was studied using an integrated model of climate change assessment. Materials and Methods: The case study area of this study was located in Damghan Township, Semnan Province, Iran. It is an arid zone. The case study area is a part of the Iran Central Desert. The basin is in 12 km north of the Damghan City and between 53° E to 54° 30’ E longitude and 36° N to 36° 30’ N latitude. The area of the basin is 1,373 km2 with average annual inflow around 17.9 MCM. Total actual evaporation and average annual rainfall are 1,986 mm and 137 mm, respectively. This case study is chosen to test proposed framework for assessment of climate change impact hydrological and meteorological variables of the basin. In the proposed model, LARS-WG and ANN sub-models (7 sub models with a combination of different inputs such as temperature, precipitation and also solar radiation were used for downscaling daily outputs of CGCM3 model under 3 emission scenarios, A2, B1 and A1B and reservoir inflow simulation, respectively. LARS-WG was tested in 99% confidence level before using it as downscaling model and feed-forward neural network was used as raifall-runoff model. Moreover, the base period data (BPD, 1990-2008, were used for calibration. Finally, reservoir inflow was simulated for future period data (FPD of 2015-2044 and

  16. Modeling Two Types of Adaptation to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitigation and adaptation are the two key responses available to policymakers to reduce the risks of climate change. We model these two policies together in a new DICE-based integrated assessment model that characterizes adaptation as either short-lived flow spending or long-live...

  17. Land Use and Land-use Changes in Life Cycle Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Rosa, Michele

    2017-01-01

    The assessment of Land Uses and Land-use Changes (LULUC) impacts has become increasingly complex. Sophisticated modelling tools such as Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) are employed to capture both direct and indirect damages. However, quantitative assessments are often incomplete, dominated...... by environmental aspects. Land uses are a multidisciplinary matter and environmental and sustainable development policies intertwine. Yet, LCAs mostly focus on environmental impacts excluding socioeconomic implications of land occupation. This paper investigates the limitations of current LULUC modelling practices....... Consequently, results informing land policies may be biased towards determined development strategies or hide indirect effects and socioeconomic damages caused by large-scale land acquisitions, such as violation of tenure rights, speculation and displacement. Quantitative assessments of LULUC impacts...

  18. Effect of lunar gravity models on Chang'E-2 orbit determination using VLBI tracking data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erhu Wei

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The precise orbit determination of Chang'E-2 is the most important issue for successful mission and scientific applications, while the lunar gravity field model with big uncertainties has large effect on Chang'E-2 orbit determination. Recently, several new gravity models have been produced using the latest lunar satellites tracking data, such as LP165P, SGM150J, GL0900D and GRGM900C. In this paper, the four gravity models mentioned above were evaluated through the power spectra analysis, admittance and coherence analysis. Effect of four lunar gravity models on Chang'E-2 orbit determination performance is investigated and assessed using Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI tracking data. The overlap orbit analysis, the posteriori data residual, and the orbit prediction are used to evaluate the orbit precision between successive arcs. The LP165P model has better orbit overlap performance than the SGM150J model for Chang'E-2100 km × 100 km orbit and the SGM150J model performs better for Chang'E-2100 km × 15 km orbit, while GL0900D and GRGM900C have the best orbit overlap results for the two types of Chang'E-2 orbit. For the orbit prediction, GRGM900C has the best orbit prediction performance in the four models.

  19. Coupling integrated assessment and earth system models: concepts and an application to land use change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, B. C.; Lawrence, P.; Ren, X.

    2016-12-01

    Collaboration between the integrated assessment modeling (IAM) and earth system modeling (ESM) communities is increasing, driven by a growing interest in research questions that require analysis integrating both social and natural science components. This collaboration often takes the form of integrating their respective models. There are a number of approaches available to implement this integration, ranging from one-way linkages to full two-way coupling, as well as approaches that retain a single modeling framework but improve the representation of processes from the other framework. We discuss the pros and cons of these different approaches and the conditions under which a two-way coupling of IAMs and ESMs would be favored over a one-way linkage. We propose a criterion that is necessary and sufficient to motivate two-way coupling: A human process must have an effect on an earth system process that is large enough to cause a change in the original human process that is substantial compared to other uncertainties in the problem being investigated. We then illustrate a test of this criterion for land use-climate interactions based on work using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and land use scenarios from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), in which we find that the land use effect on regional climate is unlikely to meet the criterion. We then show an example of implementing a one-way linkage of land use and agriculture between an IAM, the integrated Population-Economy-Technology-Science (iPETS) model, and CESM that produces fully consistent outcomes between iPETS and the CESM land surface model. We use the linked system to model the influence of climate change on crop yields, agricultural land use, crop prices and food consumption under two alternative future climate scenarios. This application demonstrates the ability to link an IAM to a global land surface and climate model in a computationally efficient manner.

  20. Applicability of ranked Regional Climate Models (RCM) to assess the impact of climate change on Ganges: A case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anand, Jatin; Devak, Manjula; Gosain, Ashvani Kumar; Khosa, Rakesh; Dhanya, Ct

    2017-04-01

    The negative impact of climate change is felt over wide range of spatial scales, ranging from small basins to large watershed area, which can possibly outweighs the benefits of natural water system. General Circulation Models (GCMs) has been widely used as an input to a hydrological models (HMs), to simulate different hydrological components of a river basin. However, the coarser scale of GCMs and spatio-temporal biases, restricted its use at finer resolution. If downscaled, adds one more level of uncertainty i.e., downscaling uncertainty together with model and scenario uncertainty. The outputs computed from Regional Climate Models (RCM) may aid the uncertainties arising from GCMs, as the RCMs are the miniatures of GCMs. However, the RCMs do have some inherent systematic biases, hence bias correction is a prerequisite process before it is fed to HMs. RCMs, together with the input from GCMs at later boundaries also takes topography of the area into account. Hence, RCMs need to be ranked a priori. In this study, impact of climate change on the Ganga basin, India, is assessed using the ranked RCMs. Firstly, bias correction of 14 RCM models are done using Quantile-Quantile mapping and Equidistant cumulative distribution method, for historic (1990-2004) and future scenario (2021-2100), respectively. The runoff simulations from Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), for historic scenario is used for ranking of RCMs. Entropy and PROMETHEE-2 method is employed to rank the RCMs based on five performance indicators namely, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of determination (R2), normalised root mean square error (NRMSE), absolute normalised mean bias error (ANMBE) and average absolute relative error (AARE). The results illustrated that each of the performance indicators behaves differently for different RCMs. RCA 4 (CNRM-CERFACS) is found as the best model with the highest value of  (0.85), followed by RCA4 (MIROC) and RCA4 (ICHEC) with  values of 0.80 and 0

  1. Towards an integrated economic assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotze-Campen, H.; Piontek, F.; Stevanovic, M.; Popp, A.; Bauer, N.; Dietrich, J.; Mueller, C.; Schmitz, C.

    2012-12-01

    For a detailed understanding of the effects of climate change on global agricultural production systems, it is essential to consider the variability of climate change patterns as projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs), their bio-physical impact on crops and the response in land-use patterns and markets. So far, approaches that account for the interaction of bio-physical and economic impacts are largely lacking. We present an integrative analysis by using a soft-coupled system of a biophysical impact model (LPJmL, Bondeau et al. 2007), an economically driven land use model (MAgPIE, Lotze-Campen et al. 2008) and an integrated assessment model (ReMIND-R, Leimbach et al. 2010) to study climate change impacts and economic damages in the agricultural sector. First, the dynamic global vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL is used to derive climate change impacts on crop yields for wheat, maize, soy, rice and other major crops. A range of different climate projections is used, taken from the dataset provided by the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP, www.isi-mip.org), which bias-corrected the latest CMIP5 climate data (Taylor et al. 2011). Crop yield impacts cover scenarios with and without CO2 fertilization as well as different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and different GCMs. With increasing temperature towards the end of the century yields generally decrease in tropical and subtropical regions, while they tend to benefit in higher latitudes. LPJmL results have been compared to other global crop models in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP, www.agmip.org). Second, changes in crop yields are analysed with the spatially explicit agro-economic model MAgPIE, which covers their interaction with economic development and changes in food demand. Changes in prices as well as welfare changes of producer and consumer surplus are taken as economic indicators. Due to climate-change related reductions in

  2. Evolution in performance assessment modeling as a result of regulatory review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rowat, J.H.; Dolinar, G.M.; Stephens, M.E. [AECL Chalk River Labs., Ontario (Canada)] [and others

    1995-12-31

    AECL is planning to build the IRUS (Intrusion Resistant Underground Structure) facility for near-surface disposal of LLRW. The PSAR (preliminary safety assessment report) was subject to an initial regulatory review during mid-1992. The regulatory authority provided comments on many aspects of the safety assessment documentation including a number of questions on specific PA (Performance Assessment) modelling assumptions. As a result of these comments as well as a separate detailed review of the IRUS disposal concept, changes were made to the conceptual and mathematical models. The original disposal concept included a non-sorbing vault backfill, with a strong reliance on the wasteform as a barrier. This concept was altered to decrease reliance on the wasteform by replacing the original backfill with a sand/clinoptilolite mix, which is a better sorber of metal cations. This change lead to changes in the PA models which in turn altered the safety case for the facility. This, and other changes that impacted performance assessment modelling are the subject of this paper.

  3. Possible impact of climate change on meningitis in northwest Nigeria: an assessment using CMIP5 climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdussalam, Auwal; Monaghan, Andrew; Steinhoff, Daniel; Dukic, Vanja; Hayden, Mary; Hopson, Thomas; Thornes, John; Leckebusch, Gregor

    2014-05-01

    Meningitis remains a major health burden throughout Sahelian Africa, especially in heavily-populated northwest Nigeria. Cases exhibit strong sensitivity to intra- and inter-annual climate variability, peaking during the hot and dry boreal spring months, raising concern that future climate change may increase the incidence of meningitis in the region. The impact of future climate change on meningitis risk in northwest Nigeria is assessed by forcing an empirical model of meningitis with monthly simulations from an ensemble of thirteen statistically downscaled global climate model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Experiment Phase 5 (CMIP5) for RCPs 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios. The results suggest future temperature increases due to climate change has the potential to significantly increase meningitis cases in both the early and late 21st century, and to increase the length of the meningitis season in the late century. March cases may increase from 23 per 100,000 people for present day (1990-2005), to 29-30 per 100,000 (p<0.01) in the early century (2020-2035) and 31-42 per 100,000 (p<0.01) in the late century (2060-2075), the range being dependent on the emissions scenario. It is noteworthy that these results represent the climatological potential for increased cases due to climate change, as we assume current prevention and treatment strategies remain similar in the future.

  4. The variance of the model representation of nuclear power generation and its implication to the climate change mitigation assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wada, Kenichi; Sano, Fuminori; Oshima, Kanji; Akimoto, Keigo

    2013-01-01

    Nuclear power secures affordable carbon-free energy supply, but entails various risks and constraints, such as safety concerns, waste disposal protest campaign, and proliferation. Given the nature of these characteristics of nuclear power generation, there is wide range of variations in representation of nuclear power technologies across models. In this paper, we explore the variance of the model representation of nuclear power generation and its implication to the climate change mitigation assessment, based on the EMF27 study. The most common result is that under efforts to mitigate climate change more nuclear energy use is needed. We find, however, that perspectives on the contribution of nuclear energy to global energy needs vary tremendously among the modeling teams. This diversity mainly comes from the difference in the level of detail that characterize nuclear energy technologies and the broad range of nuclear contributions in the long-term scenarios of global energy use. (author)

  5. A probabilistic model of ecosystem response to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shevliakova, E.; Dowlatabadi, H.

    1994-01-01

    Anthropogenic activities are leading to rapid changes in land cover and emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. These changes can bring about climate change typified by average global temperatures rising by 1--5 C over the next century. Climate change of this magnitude is likely to alter the distribution of terrestrial ecosystems on a large scale. Options available for dealing with such change are abatement of emissions, adaptation, and geoengineering. The integrated assessment of climate change demands that frameworks be developed where all the elements of the climate problem are present (from economic activity to climate change and its impacts on market and non-market goods and services). Integrated climate assessment requires multiple impact metrics and multi-attribute utility functions to simulate the response of different key actors/decision-makers to the actual physical impacts (rather than a dollar value) of the climate-damage vs. policy-cost debate. This necessitates direct modeling of ecosystem impacts of climate change. The authors have developed a probabilistic model of ecosystem response to global change. This model differs from previous efforts in that it is statistically estimated using actual ecosystem and climate data yielding a joint multivariate probability of prevalence for each ecosystem, given climatic conditions. The authors expect this approach to permit simulation of inertia and competition which have, so far, been absent in transfer models of continental-scale ecosystem response to global change. Thus, although the probability of one ecotype will dominate others at a given point, others would have the possibility of establishing an early foothold

  6. Modeling the impact of climate change in Germany with biosphere models for long-term safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staudt, C; Semiochkina, N; Kaiser, J C; Pröhl, G

    2013-01-01

    Biosphere models are used to evaluate the exposure of populations to radionuclides from a deep geological repository. Since the time frame for assessments of long-time disposal safety is 1 million years, potential future climate changes need to be accounted for. Potential future climate conditions were defined for northern Germany according to model results from the BIOCLIM project. Nine present day reference climate regions were defined to cover those future climate conditions. A biosphere model was developed according to the BIOMASS methodology of the IAEA and model parameters were adjusted to the conditions at the reference climate regions. The model includes exposure pathways common to those reference climate regions in a stylized biosphere and relevant to the exposure of a hypothetical self-sustaining population at the site of potential radionuclide contamination from a deep geological repository. The end points of the model are Biosphere Dose Conversion factors (BDCF) for a range of radionuclides and scenarios normalized for a constant radionuclide concentration in near-surface groundwater. Model results suggest an increased exposure of in dry climate regions with a high impact of drinking water consumption rates and the amount of irrigation water used for agriculture. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. An ensemble approach to assess hydrological models' contribution to uncertainties in the analysis of climate change impact on water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velázquez, J. A.; Schmid, J.; Ricard, S.; Muerth, M. J.; Gauvin St-Denis, B.; Minville, M.; Chaumont, D.; Caya, D.; Ludwig, R.; Turcotte, R.

    2012-06-01

    Over the recent years, several research efforts investigated the impact of climate change on water resources for different regions of the world. The projection of future river flows is affected by different sources of uncertainty in the hydro-climatic modelling chain. One of the aims of the QBic3 project (Québec-Bavarian International Collaboration on Climate Change) is to assess the contribution to uncertainty of hydrological models by using an ensemble of hydrological models presenting a diversity of structural complexity (i.e. lumped, semi distributed and distributed models). The study investigates two humid, mid-latitude catchments with natural flow conditions; one located in Southern Québec (Canada) and one in Southern Bavaria (Germany). Daily flow is simulated with four different hydrological models, forced by outputs from regional climate models driven by a given number of GCMs' members over a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) periods. The results show that the choice of the hydrological model does strongly affect the climate change response of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows. Indicators related to high flows seem less sensitive on the choice of the hydrological model. Therefore, the computationally less demanding models (usually simple, lumped and conceptual) give a significant level of trust for high and overall mean flows.

  8. Assessing rates of forest change and fragmentation in Alabama, USA, using the vegetation change tracker model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Mingshi; Huang, Chengquan; Zhu, Zhiliang; Shi, Hua; Lu, Heng; Peng, Shikui

    2009-01-01

    Forest change is of great concern for land use decision makers and conservation communities. Quantitative and spatial forest change information is critical for addressing many pressing issues, including global climate change, carbon budgets, and sustainability. In this study, our analysis focuses on the differences in geospatial patterns and their changes between federal forests and nonfederal forests in Alabama over the time period 1987–2005, by interpreting 163 Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) scenes using a vegetation change tracker (VCT) model. Our analysis revealed that for the most part of 1990 s and between 2000 and 2005, Alabama lost about 2% of its forest on an annual basis due to disturbances, but much of the losses were balanced by forest regeneration from previous disturbances. The disturbance maps revealed that federal forests were reasonably well protected, with the fragmentation remaining relatively stable over time. In contrast, nonfederal forests, which are predominant in area share (about 95%), were heavily disturbed, clearly demonstrating decreasing levels of fragmentation during the time period 1987–1993 giving way to a subsequent accelerating fragmentation during the time period 1994–2005. Additionally, the identification of the statistical relationships between forest fragmentation status and forest loss rate and forest net change rate in relation to land ownership implied the distinct differences in forest cutting rate and cutting patterns between federal forests and nonfederal forests. The forest spatial change information derived from the model has provided valuable insights regarding regional forest management practices and disturbance regimes, which are closely associated with regional economics and environmental concerns.

  9. Can the combined use of an ensemble based modelling approach and the analysis of measured meteorological trends lead to increased confidence in climate change impact assessments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gädeke, Anne; Koch, Hagen; Pohle, Ina; Grünewald, Uwe

    2014-05-01

    In anthropogenically heavily impacted river catchments, such as the Lusatian river catchments of Spree and Schwarze Elster (Germany), the robust assessment of possible impacts of climate change on the regional water resources is of high relevance for the development and implementation of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. Large uncertainties inherent in future climate projections may, however, reduce the willingness of regional stakeholder to develop and implement suitable adaptation strategies to climate change. This study provides an overview of different possibilities to consider uncertainties in climate change impact assessments by means of (1) an ensemble based modelling approach and (2) the incorporation of measured and simulated meteorological trends. The ensemble based modelling approach consists of the meteorological output of four climate downscaling approaches (DAs) (two dynamical and two statistical DAs (113 realisations in total)), which drive different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (HBV-light and WaSiM-ETH). As study area serve three near natural subcatchments of the Spree and Schwarze Elster river catchments. The objective of incorporating measured meteorological trends into the analysis was twofold: measured trends can (i) serve as a mean to validate the results of the DAs and (ii) be regarded as harbinger for the future direction of change. Moreover, regional stakeholders seem to have more trust in measurements than in modelling results. In order to evaluate the nature of the trends, both gradual (Mann-Kendall test) and step changes (Pettitt test) are considered as well as both temporal and spatial correlations in the data. The results of the ensemble based modelling chain show that depending on the type (dynamical or statistical) of DA used, opposing trends in precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and discharge are simulated in the scenario period (2031-2060). While the statistical DAs

  10. Integrating Plant Science and Crop Modeling: Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Soybean and Maize Production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fodor, Nándor; Challinor, Andrew; Droutsas, Ioannis; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Zabel, Florian; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Foyer, Christine H

    2017-11-01

    Increasing global CO2 emissions have profound consequences for plant biology, not least because of direct influences on carbon gain. However, much remains uncertain regarding how our major crops will respond to a future high CO2 world. Crop model inter-comparison studies have identified large uncertainties and biases associated with climate change. The need to quantify uncertainty has drawn the fields of plant molecular physiology, crop breeding and biology, and climate change modeling closer together. Comparing data from different models that have been used to assess the potential climate change impacts on soybean and maize production, future yield losses have been predicted for both major crops. When CO2 fertilization effects are taken into account significant yield gains are predicted for soybean, together with a shift in global production from the Southern to the Northern hemisphere. Maize production is also forecast to shift northwards. However, unless plant breeders are able to produce new hybrids with improved traits, the forecasted yield losses for maize will only be mitigated by agro-management adaptations. In addition, the increasing demands of a growing world population will require larger areas of marginal land to be used for maize and soybean production. We summarize the outputs of crop models, together with mitigation options for decreasing the negative impacts of climate on the global maize and soybean production, providing an overview of projected land-use change as a major determining factor for future global crop production. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Japanese Society of Plant Physiologists.

  11. Modeling Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Using Projections of the 5th Assessment Report for the Bernam River Basin, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nkululeko Simeon Dlamini

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Potential impacts of climate change on the streamflow of the Bernam River Basin in Malaysia are assessed using ten Global Climate Models (GCMs under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. A graphical user interface was developed that integrates all of the common procedures of assessing climate change impacts, to generate high resolution climate variables (e.g., rainfall, temperature, etc. at the local scale from large-scale climate models. These are linked in one executable module to generate future climate sequences that can be used as inputs to various models, including hydrological and crop models. The generated outputs were used as inputs to the SWAT hydrological model to simulate the hydrological processes. The evaluation results indicated that the model performed well for the watershed with a monthly R2, Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE and Percent Bias (PBIAS values of 0.67, 0.62 and −9.4 and 0.62, 0.61 and −4.2 for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. The multi-model projections show an increase in future temperature (tmax and tmin in all respective scenarios, up to an average of 2.5 °C for under the worst-case scenario (RC8.5. Rainfall is also predicted to change with clear variations between the dry and wet season. Streamflow projections also followed rainfall pattern to a great extent with a distinct change between the dry and wet season possibly due to the increase in evapotranspiration in the watershed. In principle, the interface can be customized for the application to other watersheds by incorporating GCMs’ baseline data and their corresponding future data for those particular stations in the new watershed. Methodological limitations of the study are also discussed.

  12. Performance Implications of Business Model Change: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Poláková

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with changes in performance level introduced by the change of business model. The selected case is a small family business undergoing through substantial changes in reflection of structural changes of its markets. The authors used the concept of business model to describe value creation processes within the selected family business and by contrasting the differences between value creation processes before and after the change introduced they prove the role of business model as the performance differentiator. This is illustrated with the use of business model canvas constructed on the basis interviews, observations and document analysis. The two business model canvases allow for explanation of cause-and-effect relationships within the business leading to change in performance. The change in the performance is assessed by financial analysis of the business conducted over the period of 2006–2012 demonstrates changes in performance (comparing development of ROA, ROE and ROS having their lowest levels before the change of business model was introduced, growing after the introduction of the change, as well as the activity indicators with similar developments of the family business. The described case study contributes to the concept of business modeling with the arguments supporting its value as strategic tool facilitating decisions related to value creation within the business.

  13. Using Bayesian networks to assess the vulnerability of Hawaiian terrestrial biota to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortini, L.; Jacobi, J.; Price, J.; Vorsino, A.; Paxton, E.; Amidon, F.; 'Ohukani'ohi'a Gon, S., III; Koob, G.; Brink, K.; Burgett, J.; Miller, S.

    2012-12-01

    As the effects of climate change on individual species become increasingly apparent, there is a clear need for effective adaptation planning to prevent an increase in species extinctions worldwide. Given the limited understanding of species responses to climate change, vulnerability assessments and species distribution models (SDMs) have been two common tools used to jump-start climate change adaptation efforts. However, although these two approaches generally serve the same purpose of understanding species future responses to climate change, they have rarely mixed. In collaboration with research and management partners from federal, state and non-profit organizations, we are conducting a climate change vulnerability assessment for hundreds of plant and forest bird species of the Main Hawaiian Islands. This assessment is the first to comprehensively consider the potential threats of climate change to a significant portion of Hawaii's fauna and flora (over one thousand species considered) and thus fills a critical gap defined by natural resource scientists and managers in the region. We have devised a flexible approach that effectively integrates species distribution models into a vulnerability assessment framework that can be easily updated with improved models and data. This tailors our assessment approach to the Pacific Island reality of often limited and fragmented information on species and large future climate uncertainties, This vulnerability assessment is based on a Bayesian network-based approach that integrates multiple landscape (e.g., topographic diversity, dispersal barriers), species trait (e.g., generation length, fecundity) and expert-knowledge based information (e.g., capacity to colonize restored habitat) relevant to long-term persistence of species under climate change. Our presentation will highlight some of the results from our assessment but will mainly focus on the utility of the flexible approach we have developed and its potential

  14. Assessing NARCCAP climate model effects using spatial confidence regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. French

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available We assess similarities and differences between model effects for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP climate models using varying classes of linear regression models. Specifically, we consider how the average temperature effect differs for the various global and regional climate model combinations, including assessment of possible interaction between the effects of global and regional climate models. We use both pointwise and simultaneous inference procedures to identify regions where global and regional climate model effects differ. We also show conclusively that results from pointwise inference are misleading, and that accounting for multiple comparisons is important for making proper inference.

  15. Methodology to assess coastal infrastructure resilience to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roca Marta

    2016-01-01

    In order to improve the resilience of the line, several options have been considered to evaluate and reduce climate change impacts to the railway. This paper describes the methodological approach developed to evaluate the risks of flooding for a range of scenarios in the estuary and open coast reaches of the line. Components to derive the present day and future climate change coastal conditions including some possible adaptation measures are also presented together with the results of the hindcasting analysis to assess the performance of the modelling system. An overview of the modelling results obtained to support the development of a long-term Resilience Strategy for asset management is also discussed.

  16. Assessing and managing freshwater ecosystems vulnerable to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Birge, Hannah E.; Drakare, Stina; McKie, Brendan G.; Johnson, Richard K.

    2014-01-01

    Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.

  17. Multi-modeling assessment of recent changes in groundwater resource: application to the semi-arid Haouz plain (Central Morocco)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fakir, Younes; Brahim, Berjamy; Page Michel, Le; Fathallah, Sghrer; Houda, Nassah; Lionel, Jarlan; Raki Salah, Er; Vincent, Simonneaux; Said, Khabba

    2015-04-01

    The Haouz plain (6000 km2) is a part of the Tensift basin located in the Central Morocco. The plain has a semi-arid climate (250 mm/y of rainfall) and is bordered in the south by the High-Atlas mountains. Because the plain is highly anthropized, the water resources face heavy demands from various competing sectors, including agriculture (over than 273000 ha of irrigated areas), water supply for more than 2 million inhabitants and about 2 millions of tourists annually. Consequently the groundwater is being depleted on a large area of the plain, with problems of water scarcity which pose serious threats to water supplies and to sustainable development. The groundwater in the Haouz plain was modeled previously by MODFLOW (USGS groundwater numerical modeling) with annual time steps. In the present study a multi-modeling approach is applied. The aim is to enhance the evaluation of the groundwater pumping for irrigation, one of the most difficult data to estimate, and to improve the water balance assessment. In this purpose, two other models were added: SAMIR (Satellite Estimation of Agricultural Water Demand) and WEAP (integrated water resources planning). The three models are implemented at a monthly time step and calibrated over the 2001-2011 period, corresponding to 120 time steps. This multi-modeling allows assessing the evolution of water resources both in time and space. The results show deep changes during the last years which affect generally the water resources and groundwater particularly. These changes are induced by a remarkable urbanism development, succession of droughts, intensive agriculture activities and weak management of irrigation and water resources. Some indicators of these changes are as follow: (i) the groundwater table decrease varies between 1 to 3m/year, (ii) the groundwater depletion during the last ten year is equivalent to 50% of the lost reserves during 40 years, (iii) the annual groundwater deficit is about 100 hm3, (iv) the renewable

  18. Methodologies for assessing socio-economic impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smit, B.

    1993-01-01

    Much of the studies on climate change impacts have focused on physical and biological impacts, yet a knowledge of the social and economic impacts of climate change is likely to have a greater impact on the public and on policymakers. A conventional assessment of the impacts of climate change begins with scenarios of future climate, commonly derived from global climate models translated to a regional scale. Estimates of biophysical conditions provided by such scenarios provide a basis for analyses of human impacts, usually considered sector by sector. The scenario approach, although having considerable merit and appeal, has some noteworthy limitations. It encourages consideration of only a small set of scenarios, requires bold assumptions to be made about adjustments in human systems, provides little direct analysis of sensitivities of human social and economic systems to climate perturbations, and usually invokes the assumption that all factors other than climate are stable and have no synergistic effects on human systems. Conventional studies concentrate on average climate, yet climate is inherently variable. A common response to this situation is to propose further development of climate models, but this is not a sufficient or necessary condition for good and useful assessments of impacts on human activities. Different approaches to socioeconomic impact analysis are needed, and approaches should be considered that include identification of sensitivities in a social or ecological system, identification of critical threshold levels or critical speeds of change in variables, and exploration of alternative methodologies such as process studies, spatial and temporal analogues, and socio-economic systems modelling. 5 refs., 3 figs

  19. Assessing the Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khresat, Sa'eb; Shraidaeh, Fadi; Maddat, Amer

    2015-04-01

    Climate change represents one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats facing Jordan. In particular, the combined effects of climate change and water scarcity threaten to affect food and water resources that are critical for livelihoods in Jordan. This is especially true for those communities who live in the dryland area in the country and who rely wholly on rain-fed agriculture. The exact nature and extent of the impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation distribution pattern remain uncertain and it is the poor and vulnerable who will be the most susceptible to climate change adverse effects. A vulnerability assessment of rain fed agriculture to climate change and variability in semi-arid parts of Jordan was conducted in 2014. The purpose of this study is to assess the vulnerability and resilience of the most vulnerable groups where rainfed and irrigated agriculture is practiced. Also, the study focused on quantifying the impacts on agricultural productivity in response to climate change. This will help policymakers and researchers better understand and anticipate the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture and on vulnerable communities in Jordan. Also, it will provide them with tools to identify and implement appropriate adaptation strategies. The data used includes; Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Those pathways were used for climate modeling. A decision support system (DSSAT) for agricultural production was used to assess the impact of climate changes on agricultural production. This approach was used for the Identification of climate change risk and their impacts on Agriculture. Outputs from models are used to assess the vulnerability of farmers and crops to climate and socio-economic change by estimating their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to external factors as a means of identifying what causes the differences in their

  20. An assessment of irrigation needs and crop yield for the United States under potential climate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brumbelow, Kelly; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2000-01-01

    Past assessments of climate change on U.S. agriculture have mostly focused on changes in crop yield. Few studies have included the entire conterminous U.S., and few studies have assessed changing irrigation requirements. None have included the effects of changing soil moisture characteristics as determined by changing climatic forcing. This study assesses changes in irrigation requirements and crop yields for five crops in the areas of the U.S. where they have traditionally been grown. Physiologically-based crop models are used to incorporate inputs of climate, soils, agricultural management, and drought stress tolerance. Soil moisture values from a macroscale hydrologic model run under a future climate scenario are used to initialize soil moisture content at the beginning of each growing season. Historical crop yield data is used to calibrate model parameters and determine locally acceptable drought stress as a management parameter. Changes in irrigation demand and crop yield are assessed for both means and extremes by comparing results for atmospheric forcing close to the present climate with those for a future climate scenario. Assessments using the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis General Circulation Model (CGCM1) indicate greater irrigation demands in the southern U.S. and decreased irrigation demands in the northern and western U.S. Crop yields typically increase except for winter wheat in the southern U.S. and corn. Variability in both irrigation demands and crop yields increases in most cases. Assessment results for the CGCM1 climate scenario are compared to those for the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research GCM (HadCM2) scenario for southwestern Georgia. The comparison shows significant differences in irrigation and yield trends, both in magnitude and direction. The differences reflect the high forecast uncertainty of current GCMs. Nonetheless, both GCMs indicate higher variability in future climatic forcing and, consequently

  1. Climate change impacts and adaptation options for the Greek agriculture in 2021–2050: A monetary assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Georgopoulou

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a quantitative assessment of mid-term (2021–2050 climate change impacts on and potential adaptation options for selected crops in Greece that are of importance in terms of their share in national agricultural production and gross value added. Central points in the assessment are the monetary evaluation of impacts and the cost-benefit analysis of adaptation options. To address local variability in current and future climate conditions, analysis is spatially disaggregated into geographical regions using as an input downscaled results from climatic models. For some crops (cereals, vegetables, pulses, grapevines, changes in future agricultural yields are assessed by means of agronomic simulation models, while for the rest crops changes are assessed through regression models. The expected effects on crop yields of a number of potential adaptation options are also investigated through the same models, and the costs and benefits of these options are also quantitatively assessed. The findings indicate that climate change may create winners and losers depending on their agricultural activity and location, while adaptation can mitigate adverse effects of climate change under cost-effective terms.

  2. Innovative energy technologies in energy-economy models: assessing economic, energy and environmental impacts of climate policy and technological change in Germany.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schumacher, K.

    2007-04-18

    Energy technologies and innovation are considered to play a crucial role in climate change mitigation. Yet, the representation of technologies in energy-economy models, which are used extensively to analyze the economic, energy and environmental impacts of alternative energy and climate policies, is rather limited. This dissertation presents advanced techniques of including technological innovations in energy-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. New methods are explored and applied for improving the realism of energy production and consumption in such top-down models. The dissertation addresses some of the main criticism of general equilibrium models in the field of energy and climate policy analysis: The lack of detailed sectoral and technical disaggregation, the restricted view on innovation and technological change, and the lack of extended greenhouse gas mitigation options. The dissertation reflects on the questions of (1) how to introduce innovation and technological change in a computable general equilibrium model as well as (2) what additional and policy relevant information is gained from using these methodologies. Employing a new hybrid approach of incorporating technology-specific information for electricity generation and iron and steel production in a dynamic multi-sector computable equilibrium model it can be concluded that technology-specific effects are crucial for the economic assessment of climate policy, in particular the effects relating to process shifts and fuel input structure. Additionally, the dissertation shows that learning-by-doing in renewable energy takes place in the renewable electricity sector but is equally important in upstream sectors that produce technologies, i.e. machinery and equipment, for renewable electricity generation. The differentiation of learning effects in export sectors, such as renewable energy technologies, matters for the economic assessment of climate policies because of effects on international

  3. Changing anatomies of Information Literacy at the postgraduate level: refinements of models and shifts in assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonja Spiranec

    2010-09-01

    longer be conceived of as a schematic, linear or rules-driven process. Such profound changes suggest renewed conceptions and focal points of IL at the postgraduate level which will take into account the fluid nature of current information environments. New IL frameworks should acknowledge that it is not always possible to a priori determine the best information and resources to use or apply one valid strategy for solving a particular problem. IL programs should therefore move ahead by abandoning the limited present approach according to which there is only one right answer or path to this answer and instead offer insight into the variety of complex layers our current information universe consists of. Assessment models in IL should mirror this renewed IL conceptions as well, which basically implies the negation of the rubrics and checklist approach commonly associated with IL assessment models. After discussing changes in information landscapes brought about the Web 2.0 and examining transformed premises of scientific work within such environments, the authors will plea for reconceptualizations of IL on the postgraduate level and propose new modes of assessment that will recognize this transformation.

  4. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  5. Multi-scale, multi-model assessment of projected land allocation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vernon, C. R.; Huang, M.; Chen, M.; Calvin, K. V.; Le Page, Y.; Kraucunas, I.

    2017-12-01

    Effects of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on climate are generally classified into two scale-dependent processes: biophysical and biogeochemical. An extensive amount of research has been conducted related to the impact of each process under alternative climate change futures. However, these studies are generally focused on the impacts of a single process and fail to bridge the gap between sector-driven scale dependencies and any associated dynamics. Studies have been conducted to better understand the relationship of these processes but their respective scale has not adequately captured overall interdependencies between land surface changes and changes in other human-earth systems (e.g., energy, water, economic, etc.). There has also been considerable uncertainty surrounding land use land cover downscaling approaches due to scale dependencies. Demeter, a land use land cover downscaling and change detection model, was created to address this science gap. Demeter is an open-source model written in Python that downscales zonal land allocation projections to the gridded resolution of a user-selected spatial base layer (e.g., MODIS, NLCD, EIA CCI, etc.). Demeter was designed to be fully extensible to allow for module inheritance and replacement for custom research needs, such as flexible IO design to facilitate the coupling of Earth system models (e.g., the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM)) to integrated assessment models (e.g., the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)). In this study, we first assessed the sensitivity of downscaled LULCC scenarios at multiple resolutions from Demeter to its parameters by comparing them to historical LULC change data. "Optimal" values of key parameters for each region were identified and used to downscale GCAM-based future scenarios consistent with those in the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP). Demeter-downscaled land use scenarios were then compared to the

  6. Climate model assessment of changes in winter-spring streamflow timing over North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kam, Jonghun; Knutson, Thomas R.; Milly, Paul C. D.

    2018-01-01

    Over regions where snow-melt runoff substantially contributes to winter-spring streamflows, warming can accelerate snow melt and reduce dry-season streamflows. However, conclusive detection of changes and attribution to anthropogenic forcing is hindered by brevity of observational records, model uncertainty, and uncertainty concerning internal variability. In this study, a detection/attribution of changes in mid-latitude North American winter-spring streamflow timing is examined using nine global climate models under multiple forcing scenarios. In this study, robustness across models, start/end dates for trends, and assumptions about internal variability is evaluated. Marginal evidence for an emerging detectable anthropogenic influence (according to four or five of nine models) is found in the north-central U.S., where winter-spring streamflows have been coming earlier. Weaker indications of detectable anthropogenic influence (three of nine models) are found in the mountainous western U.S./southwestern Canada and in extreme northeastern U.S./Canadian Maritimes. In the former region, a recent shift toward later streamflows has rendered the full-record trend toward earlier streamflows only marginally significant, with possible implications for previously published climate change detection findings for streamflow timing in this region. In the latter region, no forced model shows as large a shift toward earlier streamflow timing as the detectable observed shift. In other (including warm, snow-free) regions, observed trends are typically not detectable, although in the U.S. central plains we find detectable delays in streamflow, which are inconsistent with forced model experiments.

  7. Quantitative assessment of Vulnerability of Forest ecosystem to Climate Change in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byun, J.; Lee, W.; Choi, S.; Oh, S.; Climate Change Model Team

    2011-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the vulnerability of forest ecosystem to climate change in Korea using outputs of vegetation models(HyTAG and MC1) and socio-ecological indicators. Also it suggested adaptation strategies in forest management through analysis of three vulnerability components: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. For the model simulation of past years(1971-2000), the climatic data was prepared by the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA). In addition, for the future simulation, the Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model(MM5) coupling with atmosphere-ocean circulation model(ECHO-G) provide the future climatic data under the A1B scenarios. HyTAG (Hydrological and Thermal Analogy Groups), korean model of forest distribution on a regional-scale, could show extent of sensitivity and adaptive capacity in connection with changing frequency and changing direction of vegetation. MC1 model could provide variation and direction of NPP(Net Primary Production) and SCS(Soil Carbon Storage). In addition, the sensitivity and adaptation capacity were evaluated for each. Besides indicators from models, many other indicators such as financial affairs and number of officers were included in the vulnerability components. As a result of the vulnerability assessment, south western part and Je-ju island of Korea had relatively high vulnerability. This finding is considered to come from a distinctively adaptative capacity. Using these results, we could propose actions against climate change and develop decision making systems on forest management.

  8. Long-term occlusal changes assessed by the American Board of Orthodontics' model grading system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aszkler, Robert M; Preston, Charles B; Saltaji, Humam; Tabbaa, Sawsan

    2014-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the long-term posttreatment changes in all criteria of the American Board of Orthodontics' (ABO) model grading system. We used plaster models from patients' final and posttreatment records. Thirty patients treated by 1 orthodontist using 1 bracket prescription were selected. An initial discrepancy index for each subject was performed to determine the complexity of each case. The final models were then graded using the ABO's model grading system immediately at posttreatment and postretention. Statistical analysis was performed on the 8 criteria of the model grading system, including paired t tests and Pearson correlations. An alpha of 0.05 was considered statistically significant. The average length of time between the posttreatment and postretention records was 12.7 ± 4.4 years. It was shown that alignment and rotations worsened by postretention (P = 0.014), and a weak statistically significant correlation at posttreatment and postretention was found (0.44; P = 0.016). Both marginal ridges and occlusal contacts scored less well at posttreatment. These criteria showed a significant decrease in scores between posttreatment and postretention (P <0.001), but the correlations were not statistically significant. The average total score showed a significant decrease between posttreatment and postretention (P <0.001), partly because of the large decrease in the previous 2 criteria. Higher scores for occlusal contacts and marginal ridges were found at the end of treatment; however, those scores and the overall scores for the 30 subjects improved in the postretention phase. Copyright © 2014. Published by Mosby, Inc.

  9. Changes in right ventricular function assessed by echocardiography in dog models of mild RV pressure overload.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morita, Tomoya; Nakamura, Kensuke; Osuga, Tatsuyuki; Yokoyama, Nozomu; Morishita, Keitaro; Sasaki, Noboru; Ohta, Hiroshi; Takiguchi, Mitsuyoshi

    2017-07-01

    The assessment of hemodynamic change by echocardiography is clinically useful in patients with pulmonary hypertension. Recently, mild elevation of the mean pulmonary arterial pressure (PAP) has been shown to be associated with increased mortality. However, changes in the echocardiographic indices of right ventricular (RV) function are still unknown. The objective of this study was to validate the relationship between echocardiographic indices of RV function and right heart catheterization variables under a mild RV pressure overload condition. Echocardiography and right heart catheterization were performed in dog models of mild RV pressure overload induced by thromboxane A 2 analog (U46619) (n=7). The mean PAP was mildly increased (19.3±1.1 mm Hg), and the cardiac index was decreased. Most echocardiographic indices of RV function were significantly impaired even under a mild RV pressure overload condition. Multivariate analysis revealed that the RV free wall longitudinal strain (RVLS), standard deviation of the time-to-peak longitudinal strain of RV six segments (RV-SD) by speckle-tracking echocardiography, and Tei index were independent echocardiographic predictors of the mean PAP (free wall RVLS, β=-0.60, P<.001; RV-SD, β=0.40, P=.011), pulmonary vascular resistance (free wall RVLS, β=-0.39, P=.020; RV-SD, β=0.47, P=.0086; Tei index, β=0.34, P=.047), and cardiac index (Tei index, β=-0.65, P<.001). Free wall RVLS, RV-SD, and Tei index are useful for assessing the hemodynamic change under a mild RV pressure overload condition. © 2017, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. An integrated assessment modeling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change: the MIT IGSM-CAM (version 1.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Sokolov, A. P.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

    2013-12-01

    This paper describes a computationally efficient framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to a human activity model, is linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Since the MIT IGSM-CAM framework (version 1.0) incorporates a human activity model, it is possible to analyze uncertainties in emissions resulting from both uncertainties in the underlying socio-economic characteristics of the economic model and in the choice of climate-related policies. Another major feature is the flexibility to vary key climate parameters controlling the climate system response to changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols concentrations, e.g., climate sensitivity, ocean heat uptake rate, and strength of the aerosol forcing. The IGSM-CAM is not only able to realistically simulate the present-day mean climate and the observed trends at the global and continental scale, but it also simulates ENSO variability with realistic time scales, seasonality and patterns of SST anomalies, albeit with stronger magnitudes than observed. The IGSM-CAM shares the same general strengths and limitations as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models in simulating present-day annual mean surface temperature and precipitation. Over land, the IGSM-CAM shows similar biases to the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 3, which shares the same atmospheric model. This study also presents 21st century simulations based on two emissions scenarios (unconstrained scenario and stabilization scenario at 660 ppm CO2-equivalent) similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and three sets of climate parameters. Results of the simulations with the chosen

  11. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Zarrinehrud Basin Using SWAT Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Mansouri

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluate impacts of climate change on temperature, rainfall and runoff in the future Using statistical model, LARS-WG, and conceptual hydrological model, SWAT. In order to the Zarrinehrud river basin, as the biggest catchment of the Lake Urmia basin was selected as a case study. At first, for the generation of future weather data in the basin, LARS-WG model was calibrated using meteorological data and then 14 models of AOGCM were applied and results of these models were downscaled using LARS-WG model in 6 synoptic stations for period of 2015 to 2030. SWAT model was used for evaluation of climate change impacts on runoff in the basin. In order to, the model was calibrated and validated using 6 gauging stations for period of 1987-2007 and the value of R2 was between 0.49 and 0.71 for calibration and between 0.54 and 0.77 for validation. Then by introducing average of downscaled results of AOGCM models to the SWAT, runoff changes of the basin were simulated during 2015-2030. Average of results of LARS-WG model indicated that the monthly mean of minimum and maximum temperatures will increase compared to the baseline period. Also monthly average of precipitation will decrease in spring season but will increase in summer and autumn. The results showed that in addition to the amount of precipitation, its pattern will change in the future period, too. The results of runoff simulation showed that the amount of inflow to the Zarrinehrud reservoir will reduce 28.4 percent compared to the baseline period.

  12. Modelling Impacts of Climate Change: Case Studies using the New Generation of Erosion Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change is expected to impact upon a number of soil erosion drivers and processes, which should be taken into account when designing a modelling strategy. The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) (Parry et al., 2007; Solomon et al., 2007) reviews a...

  13. Adapting the Biome-BGC Model to New Zealand Pastoral Agriculture: Climate Change and Land-Use Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.

    2011-12-01

    We have adapted the Biome-BGC model to make climate change and land-use scenario estimates of New Zealand's pasture production in 2020 and 2050, with comparison to a 2005 baseline. We take an integrated modelling approach with the aim of enabling the model's use for policy assessments across broadly related issues such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, land-use change, and greenhouse gas projections. The Biome-BGC model is a biogeochemical model that simulates carbon, water, and nitrogen cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. We introduce two new 'ecosystems', sheep/beef and dairy pasture, within the existing structure of the Biome-BGC model and calibrate its ecophysiological parameters against pasture clipping data from diverse sites around New Zealand to form a baseline estimate of total New Zealand pasture production. Using downscaled AR4 climate projections, we construct mid- and upper-range climate change scenarios in 2020 and 2050. We produce land-use change scenarios in the same years by combining the Biome-BGC model with the Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model. The LURNZ model uses econometric approaches to predict future land-use change driven by changes in net profits driven by expected pricing, including the introduction of an emission trading system. We estimate the relative change in national pasture production from our 2005 baseline levels for both sheep/beef and dairy systems under each scenario.

  14. Skill and independence weighting for multi-model assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Wehner, Michael; Knutti, Reto

    2017-01-01

    We present a weighting strategy for use with the CMIP5 multi-model archive in the fourth National Climate Assessment, which considers both skill in the climatological performance of models over North America as well as the inter-dependency of models arising from common parameterizations or tuning practices. The method exploits information relating to the climatological mean state of a number of projection-relevant variables as well as metrics representing long-term statistics of weather extremes. The weights, once computed can be used to simply compute weighted means and significance information from an ensemble containing multiple initial condition members from potentially co-dependent models of varying skill. Two parameters in the algorithm determine the degree to which model climatological skill and model uniqueness are rewarded; these parameters are explored and final values are defended for the assessment. The influence of model weighting on projected temperature and precipitation changes is found to be moderate, partly due to a compensating effect between model skill and uniqueness. However, more aggressive skill weighting and weighting by targeted metrics is found to have a more significant effect on inferred ensemble confidence in future patterns of change for a given projection.

  15. Appropriate hydrological modelling of climate change on river flooding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Booij, Martijn J.; Rizzoli, A.E.; Jakeman, A.J.

    2002-01-01

    How good should a river basin model be to assess the impact of climate change on river flooding for a specific geographical area? The determination of such an appropriate model should reveal which physical processes should be incorporated and which data and mathematical process descriptions should

  16. Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.

    2014-11-01

    Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling

  17. A New High Resolution Climate Dataset for Climate Change Impacts Assessments in New England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komurcu, M.; Huber, M.

    2016-12-01

    Assessing regional impacts of climate change (such as changes in extreme events, land surface hydrology, water resources, energy, ecosystems and economy) requires much higher resolution climate variables than those available from global model projections. While it is possible to run global models in higher resolution, the high computational cost associated with these simulations prevent their use in such manner. To alleviate this problem, dynamical downscaling offers a method to deliver higher resolution climate variables. As part of an NSF EPSCoR funded interdisciplinary effort to assess climate change impacts on New Hampshire ecosystems, hydrology and economy (the New Hampshire Ecosystems and Society project), we create a unique high-resolution climate dataset for New England. We dynamically downscale global model projections under a high impact emissions scenario using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with three nested grids of 27, 9 and 3 km horizontal resolution with the highest resolution innermost grid focusing over New England. We prefer dynamical downscaling over other methods such as statistical downscaling because it employs physical equations to progressively simulate climate variables as atmospheric processes interact with surface processes, emissions, radiation, clouds, precipitation and other model components, hence eliminates fix relationships between variables. In addition to simulating mean changes in regional climate, dynamical downscaling also allows for the simulation of climate extremes that significantly alter climate change impacts. We simulate three time slices: 2006-2015, 2040-2060 and 2080-2100. This new high-resolution climate dataset (with more than 200 variables saved in hourly (six hourly) intervals for the highest resolution domain (outer two domains)) along with model input and restart files used in our WRF simulations will be publicly available for use to the broader scientific community to support in-depth climate

  18. A new economic assessment index for the impact of climate change on grain yield

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Wenjie; Chou, Jieming; Feng, Guolin

    2007-03-01

    The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community. This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional “yield impact of meteorological factor (YIMF)” or “yield impact of weather factor” to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore, the concept of the yield impact of climatic change (YICC), which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields (PUAY) of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China, and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.

  19. A New Economic Assessment Index for the Impact of Climate Change on Grain Yield

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community.This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional "yield impact of meteorological factor (YIMF)" or "yield impact of weather factor" to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore,the concept of the yield impact of climatic change (YICC), which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields (PUAY) of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China,and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.

  20. A model validation framework for climate change projection and impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Refsgaard, Jens C.; Andréassian, Vazken

    2014-01-01

    methods for projection of climate change (single and ensemble model projections and space‐timesubstitution) and use of different data sources as proxy for future climate conditions (long historical records comprising non‐ stationarity, paleo data, and controlled experiments). The basic guiding principles...... proxy data, reflecting future conditions. This test can be used with both single and ensemble model projections as well as with space‐time‐substitutions. It is generally expected to be more powerful when applied to a model ensemble than to a single model. Since space‐timesubstitutions include...... a differential split‐sample test using best available proxy data that reflect the expected future conditions at the site being considered. Such proxy data may be obtained from long historical records comprising nonstationarity, paleo data, or controlled experiments. The test can be applied with different...

  1. Binational climate change vulnerability assessment of migratory birds in the Great Lakes Basins: Tools and impediments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert S Rempel

    Full Text Available Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna, wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina, and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina. We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species.

  2. Prediction of land use changes based on land change modeler and attribution of changes in the water balance of Ganga basin to land use change using the SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anand, J.; Gosain, A. K.; Khosa, R.

    2017-12-01

    Conflicts between increasing irrigated agricultural area, commercial crops, shifting cultivation and ever increasing domestic and industrial demand has already been a cause of tension in the society over water in the Ganga River Basin, India. For the development of sustainable water resource strategies, it is essential to establish interaction between landuse changes and local hydrology through proper assessment. Precisely, seeing how change in each LULC affects hydrologic regimes, or conversely evaluating which LULC shall be appropriate for the local hydrological regime can help decision makers to incorporate in the policy instruments. In this study, we assess hydrologic regimes of the Ganga River basin with landuse change. Catchment hydrologic responses were simulated using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Meteorological data from IMD of 0.25°×0.25° spatial resolution were taken as the climate inputs. Simulated stream flow was compared at different gauge stations distributed across the Gang basin and its tributaries. Urbanization was the topmost contributor to the increase in surface runoff and water yield. While, increased irrigation demands was the dominant contributor to the water consumption and also added to the increased evapotranspiration. In addition scenarios have been generated to study the impact of landuse change on various components of hydrology including groundwater recharge, with different cropping patterns and increased irrigation efficiency to determine various mitigation strategies that can be adopted. This study can be important tool in quantifying the changes in hydrological components in response to changes made in landuse in especially basins undergoing rapid commercialization. This shall provide substantive information to the decision makers required to develop ameliorative strategies. Keywords: Landuse and Landcover change, Hydrologic model, Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), Urbanization, Ganga River, Watershed hydrology.

  3. Uncertainties in assessing climate change impacts on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf

    2013-04-01

    There is substantial evidence in historical and recent observations that the Mediterranean and neighboring regions are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Numerous climate projections, stemming from ensembles of global and regional climate models, agree on severe changes in the climate forcing which are likely to exacerbate subsequent ecological, economic and social impacts. Many of these causal connections are closely linked to the general expectation that water availability will decline in the already water-stressed basins of Africa, the Mediterranean region and the Near East, even though considerable regional variances must be expected. Consequently, climate change impacts on water resources are raising concerns regarding their possible management and security implications. Decreasing access to water resources and other related factors could be a cause or a 'multiplier' of tensions within and between countries. Whether security threats arise from climate impacts or options for cooperation evolve does not depend only on the severity of the impacts themselves, but on social, economic, and institutional vulnerabilities or resilience as well as factors that influence local, national and international relations. However, an assessment of vulnerability and risks hinges on natural, socio-economic, and political conditions and responses, all of which are uncertain. Multidisciplinary research is needed to tackle the multi-facet complexity of climate change impacts on water resources in the Mediterranean and neighboring countries. This is particularly true in a region of overall data scarcity and poor data management and exchange structures. The current potential to develop appropriate regional adaptation measures towards climate change impacts suffers heavily from large uncertainties. These spread along a long chain of components, starting from the definition of emission scenarios to global and regional climate modeling to impact models and a

  4. Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ewert, F.; Rötter, R. P.; Bindi, M.; Weber, H.; Trnka, Miroslav; Kersebaum, K. C.; Olesen, J. E.; van Ittersum, M. K.; Janssen, S.; Rivingtom, M.; Semenov, M. A.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J. R.; Stewart, D.; Vegahen, J.; Gaiser, T.; Palouso, T.; Tao, F.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P. P.; Bartošová, Lenka; Asseng, S.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 72, oct (2015), s. 287-303 ISSN 1364-8152 R&D Projects: GA MZe QJ1310123; GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : uncertainty * scaling * integrated assessment * risk assessment * adaptation * crop models Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 4.207, year: 2015

  5. Integrating Science and Management to Assess Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Stephen D. Handler; Maria K. Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Christopher W. Swanston

    2017-01-01

    We developed the ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach (EVAA) to help inform potential adaptation actions in response to a changing climate. EVAA combines multiple quantitative models and expert elicitation from scientists and land managers. In each of eight assessment areas, a panel of local experts determined potential vulnerability of forest ecosystems to...

  6. Multi–Model Ensemble Approaches to Assessment of Effects of Local Climate Change on Water Resources of the Hotan River Basin in Xinjiang, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min Luo

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The effects of global climate change threaten the availability of water resources worldwide and modify their tempo-spatial pattern. Properly quantifying the possible effects of climate change on water resources under different hydrological models is a great challenge in ungauged alpine regions. By using remote sensing data to support established models, this study aimed to reveal the effects of climate change using two models of hydrological processes including total water resources, peak flows, evapotranspiration, snowmelt and snow accumulation in the ungauged Hotan River Basin under future representative concentration pathway (RCP scenarios. The results revealed that stream flow was much more sensitive to temperature variation than precipitation change and increased by 0.9–10.0% according to MIKE SHE or 6.5–10.5% according to SWAT. Increased evapotranspiration was similar for both models with a range of 7.6–31.3%. The snow-covered area shrank from 32.5% to 11.9% between the elevations of 4200–6400 m, respectively, and snow accumulation increased when the elevation exceeded 6400 m above sea level (asl. The results also suggested that the fully distributed and semi-distributed structures of these two models strongly influenced the responses to climate change. The study proposes a practical approach to assess the climate change effect in ungauged regions.

  7. Relevance of hydro-climatic change projection and monitoring for assessment of water cycle changes in the Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bring, Arvid; Destouni, Georgia

    2011-06-01

    Rapid changes to the Arctic hydrological cycle challenge both our process understanding and our ability to find appropriate adaptation strategies. We have investigated the relevance and accuracy development of climate change projections for assessment of water cycle changes in major Arctic drainage basins. Results show relatively good agreement of climate model projections with observed temperature changes, but high model inaccuracy relative to available observation data for precipitation changes. Direct observations further show systematically larger (smaller) runoff than precipitation increases (decreases). This result is partly attributable to uncertainties and systematic bias in precipitation observations, but still indicates that some of the observed increase in Arctic river runoff is due to water storage changes, for example melting permafrost and/or groundwater storage changes, within the drainage basins. Such causes of runoff change affect sea level, in addition to ocean salinity, and inland water resources, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Process-based hydrological modeling and observations, which can resolve changes in evapotranspiration, and groundwater and permafrost storage at and below river basin scales, are needed in order to accurately interpret and translate climate-driven precipitation changes to changes in freshwater cycling and runoff. In contrast to this need, our results show that the density of Arctic runoff monitoring has become increasingly biased and less relevant by decreasing most and being lowest in river basins with the largest expected climatic changes.

  8. Ensemble catchment hydrological modelling for climate change impact analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    , more than in high flow conditions. Hence, the mechanism of the slow flow component simulation requires further attention. It is concluded that a multi-model ensemble approach where different plausible model structures are applied, is extremely useful. It improves the reliability of climate change impact results and allows decision making to be based on uncertainty assessment that includes model structure related uncertainties. References: Ntegeka, V., Baguis, P., Roulin, E., Willems, P., 2014. Developing tailored climate change scenarios for hydrological impact assessments. Journal of Hydrology, 508C, 307-321 Vansteenkiste, Th., Tavakoli, M., Ntegeka, V., Willems, P., De Smedt, F., Batelaan, O., 2013. Climate change impact on river flows and catchment hydrology: a comparison of two spatially distributed models. Hydrological Processes, 27(25), 3649-3662. Vansteenkiste, Th., Tavakoli, M., Ntegeka, V., Van Steenbergen, N., De Smedt, F., Batelaan, O., Pereira, F., Willems, P., 2014. Intercomparison of five lumped and distributed models for catchment runoff and extreme flow simulation. Journal of Hydrology, in press. Vansteenkiste, Th., Tavakoli, M., Ntegeka, V., De Smedt, F., Batelaan, O., Pereira, F., Willems, P., 2014. Intercomparison of climate scenario impact predictions by a lumped and distributed model ensemble. Journal of Hydrology, in revision.

  9. Designing Business Model Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavalcante, Sergio Andre

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to base organisational change on the firm's business model, an approach that research has only recently start to address. This study adopts a process-based perspective on business models and insights from a variety of theories as the basis for the development of ideas...... on the design of business model change. This paper offers a new, process-based strategic analytical artefact for the design of business model change, consisting of three main phases. Designing business model change as suggested in this paper allows ex ante analysis of alternative scenarios of change...

  10. Personalized pseudophakic model for refractive assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, Filomena J; Castanheira-Dinis, António; Dias, João M

    2012-01-01

    To test a pseudophakic eye model that allows for intraocular lens power (IOL) calculation, both in normal eyes and in extreme conditions, such as post-LASIK. The model's efficacy was tested in 54 participants (104 eyes) who underwent LASIK and were assessed before and after surgery, thus allowing to test the same method in the same eye after only changing corneal topography. MODELLING: The Liou-Brennan eye model was used as a starting point, and biometric values were replaced by individual measurements. Detailed corneal surface data were obtained from topography (Orbscan®) and a grid of elevation values was used to define corneal surfaces in an optical ray-tracing software (Zemax®). To determine IOL power, optimization criteria based on values of the modulation transfer function (MTF) weighted according to contrast sensitivity function (CSF), were applied. Pre-operative refractive assessment calculated by our eye model correlated very strongly with SRK/T (r = 0.959, p0.05). Comparison of post-operative refractive assessment obtained using our eye model with the average of currently used formulas showed a strong correlation (r = 0.778, p0.05). Results suggest that personalized pseudophakic eye models and ray-tracing allow for the use of the same methodology, regardless of previous LASIK, independent of population averages and commonly used regression correction factors, which represents a clinical advantage.

  11. Morphological change on the River Towy, Wales assessed using aerial photogrammetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Joshua; Hodge, Michael

    2017-04-01

    The dynamic nature of meandering channels has fascinated geomorphologists for decades; with the onset of remote sensing, and technological advances in field equipment, scientists are able to capture high-resolution data from the Earth's surface using cost-effective techniques that require minimal manual labour. Here we present a morphological assessment of three meander bends on the River Towy, Wales, using aerial photography captured by the Welsh Assembly Government and supplemented by data captured by a UAV. Migration rates and changes in channel length were measured between 1969 and 2016 and compared to a coupled discharge record to quantify the effects of discharge variability on the morphological evolution of the channel. A short-term (seasonal) assessment of channel change was conducted by comparing sub-metre resolution 3D point cloud and digital elevation models, generated using a UAV and Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry. Our results suggest that discharge variability plays a crucial role in controlling the evolution of meandering planforms and can be an effective means of excavating floodplain material over relatively short timescales, although erosion rates can be suppressed by bankline roughness, which effectively disrupts outwardly directed flow momentum. These findings have implications for land managers and those modelling the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes which are ultimately used to forecast channel planform changes. Additionally, our results demonstrate the potential of low-cost field surveying techniques in producing high resolution models of landscape change.

  12. Do associations between employee self-reported organisational assessments and attitudinal outcomes change over time? An analysis of four Veterans Health Administration surveys using structural equation modelling

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Das, Sonali

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available and their changes over time. Exposure and outcome measures are employee-assessed in all the surveys. Because it can accommodate both latent and measured variables into the model, Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) is used to capture and quantify the relationship...

  13. Conceptual Model of Climate Change Impacts at LANL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dewart, Jean Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-17

    Goal 9 of the LANL FY15 Site Sustainability Plan (LANL 2014a) addresses Climate Change Adaptation. As part of Goal 9, the plan reviews many of the individual programs the Laboratory has initiated over the past 20 years to address climate change impacts to LANL (e.g. Wildland Fire Management Plan, Forest Management Plan, etc.). However, at that time, LANL did not yet have a comprehensive approach to climate change adaptation. To fill this gap, the FY15 Work Plan for the LANL Long Term Strategy for Environmental Stewardship and Sustainability (LANL 2015) included a goal of (1) establishing a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts at LANL and (2) establishing specific climate change indices to measure climate change and impacts at Los Alamos. Establishing a conceptual model of climate change impacts will demonstrate that the Laboratory is addressing climate change impacts in a comprehensive manner. This paper fulfills the requirement of goal 1. The establishment of specific indices of climate change at Los Alamos (goal 2), will improve our ability to determine climate change vulnerabilities and assess risk. Future work will include prioritizing risks, evaluating options/technologies/costs, and where appropriate, taking actions. To develop a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts, we selected the framework provided in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Resilience Toolkit (http://toolkit.climate.gov/).

  14. Integrated assessment of climate change with reductions of methane emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amstel, van A.R.

    2005-01-01

    We have been living in the anthropocene era since about 1950, and evidence of human influence on the natural ecosystems and climate is mounting. Reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are needed to reduce the effects of climate change in the future. In an integrated assessment with the IMAGE model

  15. Fully integrated modelling for sustainability assessment of resource recovery from waste.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millward-Hopkins, Joel; Busch, Jonathan; Purnell, Phil; Zwirner, Oliver; Velis, Costas A; Brown, Andrew; Hahladakis, John; Iacovidou, Eleni

    2018-01-15

    This paper presents an integrated modelling approach for value assessments, focusing on resource recovery from waste. The method tracks and forecasts a range of values across environmental, social, economic and technical domains by attaching these to material-flows, thus building upon and integrating unidimensional models such as material flow analysis (MFA) and lifecycle assessment (LCA). We argue that the usual classification of metrics into these separate domains is useful for interpreting the outputs of multidimensional assessments, but unnecessary for modelling. We thus suggest that multidimensional assessments can be better performed by integrating the calculation methods of unidimensional models rather than their outputs. To achieve this, we propose a new metric typology that forms the foundation of a multidimensional model. This enables dynamic simulations to be performed with material-flows (or values in any domain) driven by changes in value in other domains. We then apply the model in an illustrative case highlighting links between the UK coal-based electricity-production and concrete/cement industries, investigating potential impacts that may follow the increased use of low-carbon fuels (biomass and solid recovered fuels; SRF) in the former. We explore synergies and trade-offs in value across domains and regions, e.g. how changes in carbon emissions in one part of the system may affect mortality elsewhere. This highlights the advantages of recognising complex system dynamics and making high-level inferences of their effects, even when rigorous analysis is not possible. We also indicate how changes in social, environmental and economic 'values' can be understood as being driven by changes in the technical value of resources. Our work thus emphasises the advantages of building fully integrated models to inform conventional sustainability assessments, rather than applying hybrid approaches that integrate outputs from parallel models. The approach we

  16. Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

  17. European drought under climate change and an assessment of the uncertainties in projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, R. M. S.; Osborn, T.; Conway, D.; Warren, R.; Hankin, R.

    2012-04-01

    Extreme weather/climate events have significant environmental and societal impacts, and anthropogenic climate change has and will continue to alter their characteristics (IPCC, 2011). Drought is one of the most damaging natural hazards through its effects on agricultural, hydrological, ecological and socio-economic systems. Climate change is stimulating demand, from public and private sector decision-makers and also other stakeholders, for better understanding of potential future drought patterns which could facilitate disaster risk management. There remain considerable levels of uncertainty in climate change projections, particularly in relation to extreme events. Our incomplete understanding of the behaviour of the climate system has led to the development of various emission scenarios, carbon cycle models and global climate models (GCMs). Uncertainties arise also from the different types and definitions of drought. This study examines climate change-induced changes in European drought characteristics, and illustrates the robustness of these projections by quantifying the effects of using different emission scenarios, carbon cycle models and GCMs. This is achieved by using the multi-institutional modular "Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS)" (Warren et al., 2008), a flexible integrated assessment system for modelling climate change. Simulations generated by the simple climate model MAGICC6.0 are assessed. These include ten C4MIP carbon cycle models and eighteen CMIP3 GCMs under five IPCC SRES emission scenarios, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, and three mitigation scenarios with CO2-equivalent levels stabilising at 550 ppm, 500 ppm and 450 ppm. Using an ensemble of 2160 future precipitation scenarios, we present an analysis on both short (3-month) and long (12-month) meteorological droughts based on the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) for the baseline period (1951-2000) and two future periods of 2001-2050 and 2051

  18. Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2016-01-01

    Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes...... use scenarios. The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance during calibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations were even higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared...... to cause little change in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differences in hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilarities in hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice...

  19. Probabilistic Modeling and Risk Assessment of Cable Icing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roldsgaard, Joan Hee

    This dissertation addresses the issues related to icing of structures with special emphasis on bridge cables. Cable supported bridges in cold climate suffers for ice accreting on the cables, this poses three different undesirable situations. Firstly the changed shape of the cable due to ice...... preliminary framework is modified for assessing the probability of occurrence of in-cloud and precipitation icing and its duration. Different probabilistic models are utilized for the representation of the meteorological variables and their appropriateness is evaluated both through goodness-of-fit tests...... are influencing the two icing mechanisms and their duration. The model is found to be more sensitive to changes in the discretization levels of the input variables. Thirdly the developed operational probabilistic framework for the assessment of the expected number of occurrences of ice/snow accretion on bridge...

  20. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aanund Killingtveit

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Currently, hydropower accounts for close to 16% of the world’s total power supply and is the world’s most dominant (86% source of renewable electrical energy. The key resource for hydropower generation is runoff, which is dependent on precipitation. The future global climate is uncertain and thus poses some risk for the hydropower generation sector. The crucial question and challenge then is what will be the impact of climate change on global hydropower generation and what are the resulting regional variations in hydropower generation potential? This paper is a study that aims to evaluate the changes in global hydropower generation resulting from predicted changes in climate. The study uses an ensemble of simulations of regional patterns of changes in runoff, computed from global circulation models (GCM simulations with 12 different models. Based on these runoff changes, hydropower generation is estimated by relating the runoff changes to hydropower generation potential through geographical information system (GIS, based on 2005 hydropower generation. Hydropower data obtained from EIA (energy generation, national sites, FAO (water resources and UNEP were used in the analysis. The countries/states were used as computational units to reduce the complexities of the analysis. The results indicate that there are large variations of changes (increases/decreases in hydropower generation across regions and even within regions. Globally, hydropower generation is predicted to change very little by the year 2050 for the hydropower system in operation today. This change amounts to an increase of less than 1% of the current (2005 generation level although it is necessary to carry out basin level detailed assessment for local impacts which may differ from the country based values. There are many regions where runoff and hydropower generation will increase due to increasing precipitation, but also many regions where there will be a decrease. Based on this

  1. Patterns of Resistance in Managing Assessment Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deneen, Christopher; Boud, David

    2014-01-01

    Achieving change in assessment practices in higher education is difficult. One of the reasons for this is resistance among those responsible for teaching and assessing. This paper seeks to explore this resistance through an analysis of staff dialogue during a major attempt to change the assessment practices at one institution. An institution-wide…

  2. Assessing surface water flood risk and management strategies under future climate change: Insights from an Agent-Based Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, K; Surminski, S; Hall, J; Crick, F

    2017-10-01

    Climate change and increasing urbanization are projected to result in an increase in surface water flooding and consequential damages in the future. In this paper, we present insights from a novel Agent Based Model (ABM), applied to a London case study of surface water flood risk, designed to assess the interplay between different adaptation options; how risk reduction could be achieved by homeowners and government; and the role of flood insurance and the new flood insurance pool, Flood Re, in the context of climate change. The analysis highlights that while combined investment in property-level flood protection and sustainable urban drainage systems reduce surface water flood risk, the benefits can be outweighed by continued development in high risk areas and the effects of climate change. In our simulations, Flood Re is beneficial in its function to provide affordable insurance, even under climate change. However, the scheme does face increasing financial pressure due to rising surface water flood damages. If the intended transition to risk-based pricing is to take place then a determined and coordinated strategy will be needed to manage flood risk, which utilises insurance incentives, limits new development, and supports resilience measures. Our modelling approach and findings are highly relevant for the ongoing regulatory and political approval process for Flood Re as well as for wider discussions on the potential of insurance schemes to incentivise flood risk management and climate adaptation in the UK and internationally. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. 75 FR 51806 - Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-23

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9192-2; Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-ORD-2010-0701] Climate Change... period for the draft document titled, ``Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Four Case Studies of... vulnerability to future climate change. The report is intended to illustrate the types of analyses, models, and...

  4. Assessing the influence of climate change and inter-basin water diversion on Haihe River basin, eastern China: a coupled model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Jun; Wang, Qiang; Zhang, Xiang; Wang, Rui; She, Dunxian

    2018-04-01

    The modeling of changes in surface water and groundwater in the areas of inter-basin water diversion projects is quite difficult because surface water and groundwater models are run separately most of the time and the lack of sufficient data limits the application of complex surface-water/groundwater coupling models based on physical laws, especially for developing countries. In this study, a distributed surface-water and groundwater coupling model, named the distributed time variant gain model-groundwater model (DTVGM-GWM), was used to assess the influence of climate change and inter-basin water diversion on a watershed hydrological cycle. The DTVGM-GWM model can reflect the interaction processes of surface water and groundwater at basin scale. The model was applied to the Haihe River Basin (HRB) in eastern China. The possible influences of climate change and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) on surface water and groundwater in the HRB were analyzed under various scenarios. The results showed that the newly constructed model DTVGM-GWM can reasonably simulate the surface and river runoff, and describe the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of groundwater level, groundwater storage and phreatic recharge. The prediction results under different scenarios showed a decline in annual groundwater exploitation and also runoff in the HRB, while an increase of groundwater storage and groundwater level after the SNWDP's operation. Additionally, as the project also addresses future scenarios, a slight increase is predicted in the actual evapotranspiration, soil water content and phreatic recharge. This study provides valuable insights for developing sustainable groundwater management options for the HRB.

  5. An Agent-Based Assessment of Land Use and Ecosystem Changes in Traditional Agricultural Landscape of Portugal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Acosta, L.; Rounsevell, M.D.A.; Bakker, M.M.; Doorn, van A.M.; Gómez-Delgado, M.; Delgado, M.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an assessment of land use changes and their impacts on the ecosystem in the Montado, a traditional agricultural landscape of Portugal in response to global environmental change. The assessment uses an agent- based model (ABM) of the adaptive decisions of farmers to simulate the

  6. Personalized pseudophakic model for refractive assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filomena J Ribeiro

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: To test a pseudophakic eye model that allows for intraocular lens power (IOL calculation, both in normal eyes and in extreme conditions, such as post-LASIK. METHODS: PARTICIPANTS: The model's efficacy was tested in 54 participants (104 eyes who underwent LASIK and were assessed before and after surgery, thus allowing to test the same method in the same eye after only changing corneal topography. MODELLING: The Liou-Brennan eye model was used as a starting point, and biometric values were replaced by individual measurements. Detailed corneal surface data were obtained from topography (Orbscan® and a grid of elevation values was used to define corneal surfaces in an optical ray-tracing software (Zemax®. To determine IOL power, optimization criteria based on values of the modulation transfer function (MTF weighted according to contrast sensitivity function (CSF, were applied. RESULTS: Pre-operative refractive assessment calculated by our eye model correlated very strongly with SRK/T (r = 0.959, p0.05. Comparison of post-operative refractive assessment obtained using our eye model with the average of currently used formulas showed a strong correlation (r = 0.778, p0.05. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that personalized pseudophakic eye models and ray-tracing allow for the use of the same methodology, regardless of previous LASIK, independent of population averages and commonly used regression correction factors, which represents a clinical advantage.

  7. Land use allocation model considering climate change impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D. K.; Yoon, E. J.; Song, Y. I.

    2017-12-01

    In Korea, climate change adaptation plans are being developed for each administrative district based on impact assessments constructed in various fields. This climate change impact assessments are superimposed on the actual space, which causes problems in land use allocation because the spatial distribution of individual impacts may be different each other. This implies that trade-offs between climate change impacts can occur depending on the composition of land use. Moreover, the actual space is complexly intertwined with various factors such as required area, legal regulations, and socioeconomic values, so land use allocation in consideration of climate change can be very difficult problem to solve (Liu et al. 2012; Porta et al. 2013).Optimization techniques can generate a sufficiently good alternatives for land use allocation at the strategic level if only the fitness function of relationship between impact and land use composition are derived. It has also been noted that land use optimization model is more effective than the scenario-based prediction model in achieving the objectives for problem solving (Zhang et al. 2014). Therefore in this study, we developed a quantitative tool, MOGA (Multi Objective Genetic Algorithm), which can generate a comprehensive land use allocations considering various climate change impacts, and apply it to the Gangwon-do in Korea. Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are the most popular optimization technique to address multi-objective in land use allocation. Also, it allows for immediate feedback to stake holders because it can run a number of experiments with different parameter values. And it is expected that land use decision makers and planners can formulate a detailed spatial plan or perform additional analysis based on the result of optimization model. Acknowledgments: This work was supported by the Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) as "Climate Change Correspondence Program (Project number: 2014001310006)"

  8. Assessing the likely impacts of climate change on infrastructure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holper, Paul; Nolan, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Full text: In 2005, the Victorian Government contracted CSIRO, Maunsell Australia and Phillips Fox to undertake an overview assessment of the likely impacts of climate change on the State's infrastructure, establish the categories of infrastructure most at risk and outline opportunities for adaptation responses. The Government released the assessment in May 2007. Climate change poses a significant risk to infrastructure and its owners, managers and long-term operators. The work was undertaken on the basis that it should not be assumed that future climate and its impacts will simply be an extension of what has been experienced in the past. Major infrastructure items have long useful life spans (20-100 years). A bridge built today is expected to still be in use in tens, if not hundreds, of years. This means that recognition of likely climate change impacts and appropriate adaptation measures should occur now. Recognition of the risks associated with climate change is a valuable first step towards better planning of new infrastructure investments and reducing potential damage to existing infrastructure.lnfrastructure types examined were water, power, telecommunications, transport and buildings. The climate change projections used in this report are based on CSIRO climate modelling, supported by findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climatic and other variables considered were temperature, rainfall, available moisture, humidity, winds, fire-weather frequency and intensity, solar radiation levels and sea-level rise. For each climate change variable identified, we described a worst-case impact for low and high climate change projections for the years 2030 and 2070. The assessment was made on the basis of 'business as usual' with no adaptation responses to climate change. The report also details the current governance structures associated with each infrastructure type. Overall, the report assessed the likely impact of climate change on

  9. A Multi-Actor Dynamic Integrated Assessment Model (MADIAM)

    OpenAIRE

    Weber, Michael

    2004-01-01

    The interactions between climate and the socio-economic system are investigated with a Multi-Actor Dynamic Integrated Assessment Model (MADIAM) obtained by coupling a nonlinear impulse response model of the climate sub-system (NICCS) to a multi-actor dynamic economic model (MADEM). The main goal is to initiate a model development that is able to treat the dynamics of the coupled climate socio-economic system, including endogenous technological change, in a non-equilibrium situation, thereby o...

  10. A multi-model assessment of terrestrial biosphere model data needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardella, A.; Cowdery, E.; De Kauwe, M. G.; Desai, A. R.; Duveneck, M.; Fer, I.; Fisher, R.; Knox, R. G.; Kooper, R.; LeBauer, D.; McCabe, T.; Minunno, F.; Raiho, A.; Serbin, S.; Shiklomanov, A. N.; Thomas, A.; Walker, A.; Dietze, M.

    2017-12-01

    Terrestrial biosphere models provide us with the means to simulate the impacts of climate change and their uncertainties. Going beyond direct observation and experimentation, models synthesize our current understanding of ecosystem processes and can give us insight on data needed to constrain model parameters. In previous work, we leveraged the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) to assess the contribution of different parameters to the uncertainty of the Ecosystem Demography model v2 (ED) model outputs across various North American biomes (Dietze et al., JGR-G, 2014). While this analysis identified key research priorities, the extent to which these priorities were model- and/or biome-specific was unclear. Furthermore, because the analysis only studied one model, we were unable to comment on the effect of variability in model structure to overall predictive uncertainty. Here, we expand this analysis to all biomes globally and a wide sample of models that vary in complexity: BioCro, CABLE, CLM, DALEC, ED2, FATES, G'DAY, JULES, LANDIS, LINKAGES, LPJ-GUESS, MAESPA, PRELES, SDGVM, SIPNET, and TEM. Prior to performing uncertainty analyses, model parameter uncertainties were assessed by assimilating all available trait data from the combination of the BETYdb and TRY trait databases, using an updated multivariate version of PEcAn's Hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis. Next, sensitivity analyses were performed for all models across a range of sites globally to assess sensitivities for a range of different outputs (GPP, ET, SH, Ra, NPP, Rh, NEE, LAI) at multiple time scales from the sub-annual to the decadal. Finally, parameter uncertainties and model sensitivities were combined to evaluate the fractional contribution of each parameter to the predictive uncertainty for a specific variable at a specific site and timescale. Facilitated by PEcAn's automated workflows, this analysis represents the broadest assessment of the sensitivities and uncertainties in terrestrial

  11. A comparison of land use change accounting methods: seeking common grounds for key modeling choices in biofuel assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Bikuna Salinas, Koldo Saez; Hamelin, Lorie; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    2018-01-01

    Five currently used methods to account for the global warming (GW) impact of the induced land-use change (LUC) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been applied to four biofuel case studies. Two of the investigated methods attempt to avoid the need of considering a definite occupation -thus...... amortization period by considering ongoing LUC trends as a dynamic baseline. This leads to the accounting of a small fraction (0.8%) of the related emissions from the assessed LUC, thus their validity is disputed. The comparison of methods and contrasting case studies illustrated the need of clearly...... distinguishing between the different time horizons involved in life cycle assessments (LCA) of land-demanding products like biofuels. Absent in ISO standards, and giving rise to several confusions, definitions for the following time horizons have been proposed: technological scope, inventory model, impact...

  12. Impacts of Participatory Modeling on Climate Change-related Water Management Impacts in Sonora, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halvorsen, K. E.; Kossak, D. J.; Mayer, A. S.; Vivoni, E. R.; Robles-Morua, A.; Gamez Molina, V.; Dana, K.; Mirchi, A.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change-related impacts on water resources are expected to be particularly severe in the arid developing world. As a result, we conducted a series of participatory modeling workshops on hydrologic and water resources systems modeling in the face of climate change in Sonora, Mexico. Pre-surveys were administered to participants on Day 1 of a series of four workshops spaced out over three months in 2013. Post-surveys repeated many pre-survey questions and included questions assessing the quality of the workshops and models. We report on significant changes in participant perceptions of water resource models and problems and their assessment of the workshops. These findings will be of great value to future participatory modeling efforts, particularly within the developing world.

  13. Models of vegetation change for landscape planning: a comparison of FETM, LANDSUM, SIMPPLLE, and VDDT

    Science.gov (United States)

    T. M. Barrett

    2001-01-01

    Landscape assessment and planning often depend on the ability to predict change of vegetation. This report compares four modeling systems (FETM, LANDSUM, SIMPPLLE, and VDDT) that can be used to understand changes resulting from succession, natural disturbance, and management activities. The four models may be useful for regional or local assessments in National Forest...

  14. Do associations between employee self-reported organizational assessments and attitudinal outcomes change over time? An analysis of four Veterans Health Administration surveys using structural equation modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Sonali; Chen, Ming-Hui; Warren, Nicholas; Hodgson, Michael

    2011-12-01

    This paper evaluates relationships between healthcare employees' perceptions of three hospital organizational constructs (Leadership, Support and Resources), and their assessment of two employee-related outcomes (employee satisfaction and retention) and two patient-related outcomes (patient satisfaction and quality of care). Using four all-employee surveys conducted by the Veterans Health Administration in the United States between 1997 and 2006, we examine the strength of these relationships and their changes over time. Exposure and outcome measures are employee-assessed in all the surveys. Because it can accommodate both latent and measured variables into the model, Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) is used to capture and quantify the relationship structure. The aim of the project is to identify possible intervention foci. The analyses revealed that employee-related outcomes are improved by increases in Leadership and Support, and, not surprisingly, the outcome variable of employee satisfaction reduced turnover intention. The employee assessed patient-related outcomes of satisfaction and quality of care were most improved by increases in Resources. Results also indicate that the three organizational constructs and the web of associations characterized by SEM underwent changes over the study period, perhaps in relation to changes in VHA policy emphases, changes in survey wording and other possible unmeasured factors. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Changing the culture of assessment: the dominance of the summative assessment paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Christopher J; Könings, Karen D; Schuwirth, Lambert W T; Wass, Valerie; van der Vleuten, Cees P M

    2017-04-28

    Despite growing evidence of the benefits of including assessment for learning strategies within programmes of assessment, practical implementation of these approaches is often problematical. Organisational culture change is often hindered by personal and collective beliefs which encourage adherence to the existing organisational paradigm. We aimed to explore how these beliefs influenced proposals to redesign a summative assessment culture in order to improve students' use of assessment-related feedback. Using the principles of participatory design, a mixed group comprising medical students, clinical teachers and senior faculty members was challenged to develop radical solutions to improve the use of post-assessment feedback. Follow-up interviews were conducted with individual members of the group to explore their personal beliefs about the proposed redesign. Data were analysed using a socio-cultural lens. Proposed changes were dominated by a shared belief in the primacy of the summative assessment paradigm, which prevented radical redesign solutions from being accepted by group members. Participants' prior assessment experiences strongly influenced proposals for change. As participants had largely only experienced a summative assessment culture, they found it difficult to conceptualise radical change in the assessment culture. Although all group members participated, students were less successful at persuading the group to adopt their ideas. Faculty members and clinical teachers often used indirect techniques to close down discussions. The strength of individual beliefs became more apparent in the follow-up interviews. Naïve epistemologies and prior personal experiences were influential in the assessment redesign but were usually not expressed explicitly in a group setting, perhaps because of cultural conventions of politeness. In order to successfully implement a change in assessment culture, firmly-held intuitive beliefs about summative assessment will need to

  16. Large-scale atmospheric circulation biases and changes in global climate model simulations and their importance for climate change in Central Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. P. van Ulden

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The quality of global sea level pressure patterns has been assessed for simulations by 23 coupled climate models. Most models showed high pattern correlations. With respect to the explained spatial variance, many models showed serious large-scale deficiencies, especially at mid-latitudes. Five models performed well at all latitudes and for each month of the year. Three models had a reasonable skill. We selected the five models with the best pressure patterns for a more detailed assessment of their simulations of the climate in Central Europe. We analysed observations and simulations of monthly mean geostrophic flow indices and of monthly mean temperature and precipitation. We used three geostrophic flow indices: the west component and south component of the geostrophic wind at the surface and the geostrophic vorticity. We found that circulation biases were important, and affected precipitation in particular. Apart from these circulation biases, the models showed other biases in temperature and precipitation, which were for some models larger than the circulation induced biases. For the 21st century the five models simulated quite different changes in circulation, precipitation and temperature. Precipitation changes appear to be primarily caused by circulation changes. Since the models show widely different circulation changes, especially in late summer, precipitation changes vary widely between the models as well. Some models simulate severe drying in late summer, while one model simulates significant precipitation increases in late summer. With respect to the mean temperature the circulation changes were important, but not dominant. However, changes in the distribution of monthly mean temperatures, do show large indirect influences of circulation changes. Especially in late summer, two models simulate very strong warming of warm months, which can be attributed to severe summer drying in the simulations by these models. The models differ also

  17. The 2008 California climate change assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, G.

    2008-12-01

    In 2005, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger signed Executive Order S-03-05, which laid the foundation for California's ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation reduction efforts. The 2020 goal is now codified in state law requiring bringing 2020 emissions to the 1990 levels. The Executive Order also mandates the preparation of biennial updates on the latest climate change science, potential impacts, and assessment of the state's efforts to manage its climate change risks through various adaptation options. In 2006, the first of these mandated scientific assessments (The Governor's Scenarios Report) was released. Based on new scientific studies conducted in the interim, the next assessment, the '2008 Governor's Scenarios Report' is currently in preparation. It has three principal goals: (1) to improve the assessment of climate changes for California and associated impacts on key physical and biological indicators; (2) to begin to translate these physical and biological impacts into sectoral economic impacts; and (3) to begin to develop and evaluate strategies for key sectors or regions for adapting to climate changes already underway. Contributors to this session will present some of this new research to the scientific community. Among the most exciting new insights are impacts assessments for the all-important water and agricultural sectors, coastal areas, public health and related air quality and environmental justice issues, the forestry and energy sectors. This presentation will give an overview of the overall effort which will result in about 35 scientific papers from different research institutions in California. All of the studies are interlinked in such a way as to produce a consistent overall assessment.

  18. A decision model for intergenerational life-cycle risk assessment of civil infrastructure exposed to hurricanes under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Ji Yun; Ellingwood, Bruce R.

    2017-01-01

    Public awareness of civil infrastructure performance has increased considerably in recent years as a result of repeated natural disasters. Risks from natural hazards may increase dramatically in the future, given current patterns of urbanization and population growth in hazard-prone areas. Risk assessments for infrastructure with expected service periods of a century or more are highly uncertain, and there is compelling evidence that climatology will evolve over such intervals. Thus, current natural hazard and risk assessment models, which are based on a presumption of stationarity in hazard occurrence and intensity, may not be adequate to assess the potential risks from hazards occurring in the distant future. This paper addresses two significant intergenerational elements – the potential impact of non-stationarity in hazard due to climate change and intergenerational discounting practices – that are essential to provide an improved decision support framework that accommodates the needs and values of future generations. The framework so developed is tested through two benchmark problems involving buildings exposed to hurricanes. - Highlights: • Difficulties of conventional life-cycle engineering decision-making over multiple generations are clearly elaborated. • Two intergenerational elements are proposed to reflect equitable allocations of risk between generations. • A data-based approach to forecast future hurricanes is provided to bridge the gap between models at large and local scales. • The feasibility and practicability of a refined framework are examined through two lifecycle cost assessment examples. • The two intergenerational elements suggested in this study have a wide range of applicability.

  19. Assessing water resources vulnerability and resilience of southern Taiwan to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Hsu Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Water resources management has become more challenging in Taiwan due to rapid socio-economic development and the complications of climate change. This study developed a systematic procedure for assessing water resources vulnerability and resilience with an integrated tool, TaiWAP, including climate change scenarios, a weather generator, a hydrological model, and system dynamic models. Five assessment indicators, including two for vulnerability, two for resilience, and one for availability were used to quantify changes in water resources and improvements after implementing adaption measures. Each indicator was presented with 3 grades, namely low, medium, and high. Water resources vulnerability and resilience for Tainan City in southern Taiwan were evaluated. Insufficient water supply facilities capacity is the major weakness causing low resilience. Water resources allocation flexibility is limited by substantial agricultural water demands. A total of 9 adaption measures and combinations of measures were assessed. Desalination plant implementation can steadily supply public water to lessen system failure duration. Although agricultural water conservation and fallow land can greatly reduce water demand, fallow compensation is a potential cost. When food security is considered, reducing irrigation leakage will be a better adaption measure to both water and agriculture stakeholders. Both agriculture water conservation and cropping systems adjustment have cross-spatial flexibilities. The combination of desalination, reservoirs and public water conservation provide the most beneficial effects in reducing climate change impact.

  20. Climate change under aggressive mitigation: the ENSEMBLES multi-model experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johns, T.C.; Hewitt, C.D. [Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Royer, J.F.; Salas y. Melia, D. [Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques-Groupe d' Etude de l' Atmosphere Meteorologique (CNRM-GAME Meteo-France CNRS), Toulouse (France); Hoeschel, I.; Koerper, J. [Freie Universitaet Berlin, Institute for Meteorology, Berlin (Germany); Huebener, H. [Hessian Agency for the Environment and Geology, Wiesbaden (Germany); Roeckner, E.; Giorgetta, M.A. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Manzini, E. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); May, W.; Yang, S. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Danish Climate Centre, Copenhagen (Denmark); Dufresne, J.L. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD/IPSL), UMR 8539 CNRS, ENS, UPMC, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Otteraa, O.H. [Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Uni. Bjerknes Centre, Bergen (Norway); Vuuren, D.P. van [Utrecht University, Utrecht (Netherlands); Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL), Bilthoven (Netherlands); Denvil, S. [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), FR 636 CNRS, UVSQ, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Fogli, P.G. [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Tjiputra, J.F. [University of Bergen, Department of Geophysics, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Stehfest, E. [Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL), Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    2011-11-15

    We present results from multiple comprehensive models used to simulate an aggressive mitigation scenario based on detailed results of an Integrated Assessment Model. The experiment employs ten global climate and Earth System models (GCMs and ESMs) and pioneers elements of the long-term experimental design for the forthcoming 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment. Atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentrations pathways rather than carbon emissions are specified in all models, including five ESMs that contain interactive carbon cycles. Specified forcings also include minor greenhouse gas concentration pathways, ozone concentration, aerosols (via concentrations or precursor emissions) and land use change (in five models). The new aggressive mitigation scenario (E1), constructed using an integrated assessment model (IMAGE 2.4) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K, is studied alongside the medium-high non-mitigation scenario SRES A1B. Resulting twenty-first century global mean warming and precipitation changes for A1B are broadly consistent with previous studies. In E1 twenty-first century global warming remains below 2 K in most models, but global mean precipitation changes are higher than in A1B up to 2065 and consistently higher per degree of warming. The spread in global temperature and precipitation responses is partly attributable to inter-model variations in aerosol loading and representations of aerosol-related radiative forcing effects. Our study illustrates that the benefits of mitigation will not be realised in temperature terms until several decades after emissions reductions begin, and may vary considerably between regions. A subset of the models containing integrated carbon cycles agree that land and ocean sinks remove roughly half of present day anthropogenic carbon emissions from the atmosphere, and that anthropogenic carbon emissions must decrease by at least 50% by 2050 relative

  1. Next Generation Climate Change Experiments Needed to Advance Knowledge and for Assessment of CMIP6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Katzenberger, John [Aspen Global Change Inst., Basalt, CO (United States); Arnott, James [Aspen Global Change Inst., Basalt, CO (United States); Wright, Alyson [Aspen Global Change Inst., Basalt, CO (United States)

    2014-10-30

    The Aspen Global Change Institute hosted a technical science workshop entitled, “Next generation climate change experiments needed to advance knowledge and for assessment of CMIP6,” on August 4-9, 2013 in Aspen, CO. Jerry Meehl (NCAR), Richard Moss (PNNL), and Karl Taylor (LLNL) served as co-chairs for the workshop which included the participation of 32 scientists representing most of the major climate modeling centers for a total of 160 participant days. In August 2013, AGCI gathered a high level meeting of representatives from major climate modeling centers around the world to assess achievements and lessons learned from the most recent generation of coordinated modeling experiments known as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – 5 (CMIP5) as well as to scope out the science questions and coordination structure desired for the next anticipated phase of modeling experiments called CMIP6. The workshop allowed for reflection on the coordination of the CMIP5 process as well as intercomparison of model results, such as were assessed in the most recent IPCC 5th Assessment Report, Working Group 1. For example, this slide from Masahiro Watanabe examines performance on a range of models capturing Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

  2. Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathiraja, Sahani; Anghileri, Daniela; Burlando, Paolo; Sharma, Ashish; Marshall, Lucy; Moradkhani, Hamid

    2018-05-01

    Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km2) in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD) that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors) contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.

  3. Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Pathiraja

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km2 in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.

  4. Global modelling of river water quality under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Franssen, Wietse H. P.; Yearsley, John R.

    2017-04-01

    Climate change will pose challenges on the quality of freshwater resources for human use and ecosystems for instance by changing the dilution capacity and by affecting the rate of chemical processes in rivers. Here we assess the impacts of climate change and induced streamflow changes on a selection of water quality parameters for river basins globally. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and a newly developed global water quality module for salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand. The modelling framework was validated using observed records of streamflow, water temperature, chloride, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand for 1981-2010. VIC and the water quality module were then forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 to study water quality trends and identify critical regions (hotspots) of water quality deterioration for the 21st century.

  5. Modeling the Land Use/Cover Change in an Arid Region Oasis City Constrained by Water Resource and Environmental Policy Change using Cellular Automata Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, X.; Li, X.; Lu, L.

    2017-12-01

    Land use/cover change (LUCC) is an important subject in the research of global environmental change and sustainable development, while spatial simulation on land use/cover change is one of the key content of LUCC and is also difficult due to the complexity of the system. The cellular automata (CA) model had an irreplaceable role in simulating of land use/cover change process due to the powerful spatial computing power. However, the majority of current CA land use/cover models were binary-state model that could not provide more general information about the overall spatial pattern of land use/cover change. Here, a multi-state logistic-regression-based Markov cellular automata (MLRMCA) model and a multi-state artificial-neural-network-based Markov cellular automata (MANNMCA) model were developed and were used to simulate complex land use/cover evolutionary process in an arid region oasis city constrained by water resource and environmental policy change, the Zhangye city during the period of 1990-2010. The results indicated that the MANNMCA model was superior to MLRMCA model in simulated accuracy. These indicated that by combining the artificial neural network with CA could more effectively capture the complex relationships between the land use/cover change and a set of spatial variables. Although the MLRMCA model were also some advantages, the MANNMCA model was more appropriate for simulating complex land use/cover dynamics. The two proposed models were effective and reliable, and could reflect the spatial evolution of regional land use/cover changes. These have also potential implications for the impact assessment of water resources, ecological restoration, and the sustainable urban development in arid areas.

  6. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  7. Assessing Air Pollutant-Induced, Health-Related External Costs in the Context of Nonmarginal System Changes: A Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmann, Till M

    2015-08-18

    Marginal analysis is the usual approach to environmental economic assessment, for instance, of health-related external costs due to energy-associated air pollutant emissions. However, nonlinearity exists in all steps of their assessment, i.e., atmospheric dispersion, impact assessment, and monetary valuation. Dedicated assessments thus appear necessary when evaluating large systems or their changes such as in green accounting or the implications of economy-wide energy transitions. Corresponding approaches are reviewed. Tools already exist that allow assessing a marginal change (e.g., one power plant's emissions) for different background emission scenarios that merely need to be defined and implemented. When assessing nonmarginal changes, the top-down approach is considered obsolete, and four variants of the bottom-up approach with different application domains were identified. Variants 1 and 2 use precalculated external cost factors with different levels of sophistication, suitable for energy systems modeling, optimizing for social (i.e., private and external) costs. Providing more reliable results due to more detailed modeling, emission sources are assessed individually or jointly in variants 3 and 4, respectively. Aiming at considering nonlinearity more fully and simultaneously following marginal analysis principles, I propose a variant 3-based approach, subdividing an aggregate (i.e., a nonmarginal change) into several smaller changes. Its strengths and drawbacks, notably the associated effort, are discussed.

  8. Deducing Climatic Elasticity to Assess Projected Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow Change across China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jianyu; Zhang, Qiang; Zhang, Yongqiang; Chen, Xi; Li, Jianfeng; Aryal, Santosh K.

    2017-10-01

    Climatic elasticity has been widely applied to assess streamflow responses to climate changes. To fully assess impacts of climate under global warming on streamflow and reduce the error and uncertainty from various control variables, we develop a four-parameter (precipitation, catchment characteristics n, and maximum and minimum temperatures) climatic elasticity method named PnT, based on the widely used Budyko framework and simplified Makkink equation. We use this method to carry out the first comprehensive evaluation of the streamflow response to potential climate change for 372 widely spread catchments in China. The PnT climatic elasticity was first evaluated for a period 1980-2000, and then used to evaluate streamflow change response to climate change based on 12 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The results show that (1) the PnT climatic elasticity method is reliable; (2) projected increasing streamflow takes place in more than 60% of the selected catchments, with mean increments of 9% and 15.4% under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively; and (3) uncertainties in the projected streamflow are considerable in several regions, such as the Pearl River and Yellow River, with more than 40% of the selected catchments showing inconsistent change directions. Our results can help Chinese policy makers to manage and plan water resources more effectively, and the PnT climatic elasticity should be applied to other parts of the world.

  9. The role of computer modelling in participatory integrated assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siebenhuener, Bernd; Barth, Volker

    2005-01-01

    In a number of recent research projects, computer models have been included in participatory procedures to assess global environmental change. The intention was to support knowledge production and to help the involved non-scientists to develop a deeper understanding of the interactions between natural and social systems. This paper analyses the experiences made in three projects with the use of computer models from a participatory and a risk management perspective. Our cross-cutting analysis of the objectives, the employed project designs and moderation schemes and the observed learning processes in participatory processes with model use shows that models play a mixed role in informing participants and stimulating discussions. However, no deeper reflection on values and belief systems could be achieved. In terms of the risk management phases, computer models serve best the purposes of problem definition and option assessment within participatory integrated assessment (PIA) processes

  10. The treatment of climate-driven environmental change and associated uncertainty in post-closure assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.

    1993-01-01

    The post-closure performance of radioactive waste repositories is influenced by a range of processes such as groundwater flow and fracture movement which are in turn affected by conditions in the surface environment. For deep repositories the period for which an assessment must be performed is in the order of 10 6 years. The geological record of the last 10 6 years shows that surface environmental conditions have varied considerably over such time-scales. A model of surface environmental change, known as TIME4, has been developed on behalf of the UK Department of the Environment for use with the probabilistic risk assessment code VANDAL. This paper describes the extent of surface environmental change, discusses possible driving mechanisms for such changes and summarises the processes which have been incorporated within the TIME4 model. The underlying cause of change in surface environment sub-systems is inferred to be climate change but considerable uncertainty remains over the mechanisms of such change. Methods for treating these uncertainties are described. (author)

  11. MECCA coordinated research program: analysis of climate models uncertainties used for climatic changes study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caneill, J.Y.; Hakkarinen, C.

    1992-01-01

    An international consortium, called MECCA, (Model Evaluation Consortium for Climate Assessment) has been created in 1991 by different partners including electric utilities, government and academic groups to make available to the international scientific community, a super-computer facility for climate evolution studies. The first phase of the program consists to assess uncertainties of climate model simulations in the framework of global climate change studies. Fourteen scientific projects have been accepted on an international basis in this first phase. The second phase of the program will consist in the evaluation of a set of long climate simulations realized with coupled ocean/atmosphere models, in order to study the transient aspects of climate changes and the associated uncertainties. A particular attention will be devoted, on the consequences of these assessments on climate impact studies, and on the regional aspects of climate changes

  12. Mixture modeling methods for the assessment of normal and abnormal personality, part II: longitudinal models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Aidan G C; Hallquist, Michael N

    2014-01-01

    Studying personality and its pathology as it changes, develops, or remains stable over time offers exciting insight into the nature of individual differences. Researchers interested in examining personal characteristics over time have a number of time-honored analytic approaches at their disposal. In recent years there have also been considerable advances in person-oriented analytic approaches, particularly longitudinal mixture models. In this methodological primer we focus on mixture modeling approaches to the study of normative and individual change in the form of growth mixture models and ipsative change in the form of latent transition analysis. We describe the conceptual underpinnings of each of these models, outline approaches for their implementation, and provide accessible examples for researchers studying personality and its assessment.

  13. Moving beyond Assessment to Improving Students' Critical Thinking Skills: A Model for Implementing Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haynes, Ada; Lisic, Elizabeth; Goltz, Michele; Stein, Barry; Harris, Kevin

    2016-01-01

    This research examines how the use of the CAT (Critical thinking Assessment Test) and involvement in CAT-Apps (CAT Applications within the discipline) training can serve as an important part of a faculty development model that assists faculty in the assessment of students' critical thinking skills and in the development of these skills within…

  14. Assessing Inter-Sectoral Climate Change Risks: The Role of ISIMIP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Arnell, Nigel W.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Raes, Frank; Rapley, Chris; Smith, Mark Stafford; Cramer, Wolfgang; Frieler, Katja; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; hide

    2017-01-01

    The aims of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) are to provide a framework for the intercomparison of global and regional-scale risk models within and across multiple sectors and to enable coordinated multi-sectoral assessments of different risks and their aggregated effects. The overarching goal is to use the knowledge gained to support adaptation and mitigation decisions that require regional or global perspectives within the context of facilitating transformations to enable sustainable development, despite inevitable climate shifts and disruptions. ISIMIP uses community-agreed sets of scenarios with standardized climate variables and socioeconomic projections as inputs for projecting future risks and associated uncertainties, within and across sectors. The results are consistent multi-model assessments of sectoral risks and opportunities that enable studies that integrate across sectors, providing support for implementation of the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

  15. Using an ensemble of regional climate models to assess climate change impacts on water scarcity in European river basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gampe, David; Nikulin, Grigory; Ludwig, Ralf

    2016-12-15

    Climate change will likely increase pressure on the water balances of Mediterranean basins due to decreasing precipitation and rising temperatures. To overcome the issue of data scarcity the hydrological relevant variables total runoff, surface evaporation, precipitation and air temperature are taken from climate model simulations. The ensemble applied in this study consists of 22 simulations, derived from different combinations of four General Circulation Models (GCMs) forcing different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) at ~12km horizontal resolution provided through the EURO-CORDEX initiative. Four river basins (Adige, Ebro, Evrotas and Sava) are selected and climate change signals for the future period 2035-2065 as compared to the reference period 1981-2010 are investigated. Decreased runoff and evaporation indicate increased water scarcity over the Ebro and the Evrotas, as well as the southern parts of the Adige and the Sava, resulting from a temperature increase of 1-3° and precipitation decrease of up to 30%. Most severe changes are projected for the summer months indicating further pressure on the river basins already at least partly characterized by flow intermittency. The widely used Falkenmark indicator is presented and confirms this tendency and shows the necessity for spatially distributed analysis and high resolution projections. Related uncertainties are addressed by the means of a variance decomposition and model agreement to determine the robustness of the projections. The study highlights the importance of high resolution climate projections and represents a feasible approach to assess climate impacts on water scarcity also in regions that suffer from data scarcity. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  16. Assessing Trust and Effectiveness in Virtual Teams: Latent Growth Curve and Latent Change Score Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael D. Coovert

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Trust plays a central role in the effectiveness of work groups and teams. This is the case for both face-to-face and virtual teams. Yet little is known about the development of trust in virtual teams. We examined cognitive and affective trust and their relationship to team effectiveness as reflected through satisfaction with one’s team and task performance. Latent growth curve analysis reveals both trust types start at a significant level with individual differences in that initial level. Cognitive trust follows a linear growth pattern while affective trust is overall non-linear, but becomes linear once established. Latent change score models are utilized to examine change in trust and also its relationship with satisfaction with the team and team performance. In examining only change in trust and its relationship to satisfaction there appears to be a straightforward influence of trust on satisfaction and satisfaction on trust. However, when incorporated into a bivariate coupling latent change model the dynamics of the relationship are revealed. A similar pattern holds for trust and task performance; however, in the bivariate coupling change model a more parsimonious representation is preferred.

  17. Climate model diversity in the Northern Hemisphere Polar vortex response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, I.; Seager, R.; Hitchcock, P.; Cohen, N.

    2017-12-01

    Global climate models vary widely in their predictions of the future of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex, with some showing a significant strengthening of the vortex, some showing a significant weakening and others displaying a response that is not outside of the range expected from internal variability alone. This inter-model spread in stratospheric predictions may account for some inter-model spread in tropospheric predictions with important implications for the storm tracks and regional climate change, particularly for the North Atlantic sector. Here, our current state of understanding of this model spread and its tropospheric impacts will be reviewed. Previous studies have proposed relationships between a models polar vortex response to climate change and its present day vortex climatology while others have demonstrated links between a models polar vortex response and changing wave activity coming up from the troposphere below under a warming climate. The extent to which these mechanisms can account for the spread in polar vortex changes exhibited by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 models will be assessed. In addition, preliminary results from a series of idealized experiments with the Community Atmosphere Model will be presented. In these experiments, nudging of the stratospheric zonal mean state has been imposed to mimic the inter-model spread in the polar vortex response to climate change so that the downward influence of the spread in zonal mean stratospheric responses on the tropospheric circulation can be assessed within one model.

  18. A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Heinke

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

  19. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

    2010-12-14

    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  20. Climate induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins - assessing uncertainties and quantifying risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf

    2014-05-01

    According to current climate projections, the Mediterranean area is at high risk for severe changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. With innovative scientific measures, integrated hydrological modeling and novel field geophysical field monitoring techniques, the FP7 project CLIMB (Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins; GA: 244151) assessed the impacts of climate change on the hydrology in seven basins in the Mediterranean area, in Italy, France, Turkey, Tunisia, Egypt and the Gaza Strip, and quantified uncertainties and risks for the main stakeholders of each test site. Intensive climate model auditing selected four regional climate models, whose data was bias corrected and downscaled to serve as climate forcing for a set of hydrological models in each site. The results of the multi-model hydro-climatic ensemble and socio-economic factor analysis were applied to develop a risk model building upon spatial vulnerability and risk assessment. Findings generally reveal an increasing risk for water resources management in the test sites, yet at different rates and severity in the investigated sectors, with highest impacts likely to occur in the transition months. Most important elements of this research include the following aspects: • Climate change contributes, yet in strong regional variation, to water scarcity in the Mediterranean; other factors, e.g. pollution or poor management practices, are regionally still dominant pressures on water resources. • Rain-fed agriculture needs to adapt to seasonal changes; stable or increasing productivity likely depends on additional irrigation. • Tourism could benefit in shoulder seasons, but may expect income losses in the summer peak season due to increasing heat stress. • Local & regional water managers and water users, lack, as yet, awareness of climate change induced risks; emerging focus areas are supplies of domestic drinking water, irrigation, hydropower and livestock. • Data

  1. Barrier-island and estuarine-wetland physical-change assessment after Hurricane Sandy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Nathaniel G.; Smith, Kathryn E.L.; Passeri, Davina L.; Smith, Christopher G.; Bernier, Julie C.

    2018-04-03

    estimated from observations. The scope includes understanding changes caused by both short- and long-term processes using both remotely sensed and in situ observations to characterize changes to the wetland in terms of accretion/expansion and erosion/contraction. Accretion may be due to net vertical and (or) horizontal deposition, including estuarine-shoreline change due to overwash. Wetland erosion may be due to elevated waves and water levels in the estuary itself. We included additional information based on wave runup and storm-surge elevations based on models and elevation data. We then developed a predictive assessment for wetland vulnerability that describes the likelihood of changes of the estuarine shoreline and the landward extent of sand overwash driven by processes occurring on the ocean-facing shoreline. This assessment is intended to be linked to the beach and dune vulnerability assessments that have been developed previously.

  2. Selection of a representative subset of global climate models that captures the profile of regional changes for integrated climate impacts assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex C. Ruane

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract We present the Representative Temperature and Precipitation (T&P GCM Subsetting Approach developed within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP to select a practical subset of global climate models (GCMs for regional integrated assessment of climate impacts when resource limitations do not permit the full ensemble of GCMs to be evaluated given the need to also focus on impacts sector and economics models. Subsetting inherently leads to a loss of information but can free up resources to explore important uncertainties in the integrated assessment that would otherwise be prohibitive. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach identifies five individual GCMs that capture a profile of the full ensemble of temperature and precipitation change within the growing season while maintaining information about the probability that basic classes of climate changes (relatively cool/wet, cool/dry, middle, hot/wet, and hot/dry are projected in the full GCM ensemble. We demonstrate the selection methodology for maize impacts in Ames, Iowa, and discuss limitations and situations when additional information may be required to select representative GCMs. We then classify 29 GCMs over all land areas to identify regions and seasons with characteristic diagonal skewness related to surface moisture as well as extreme skewness connected to snow-albedo feedbacks and GCM uncertainty. Finally, we employ this basic approach to recognize that GCM projections demonstrate coherence across space, time, and greenhouse gas concentration pathway. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach provides a quantitative basis for the determination of useful GCM subsets, provides a practical and coherent approach where previous assessments selected solely on availability of scenarios, and may be extended for application to a range of scales and sectoral impacts.

  3. Global Environmental Change: An integrated modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Den Elzen, M.

    1993-01-01

    Two major global environmental problems are dealt with: climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion (and their mutual interactions), briefly surveyed in part 1. In Part 2 a brief description of the integrated modelling framework IMAGE 1.6 is given. Some specific parts of the model are described in more detail in other Chapters, e.g. the carbon cycle model, the atmospheric chemistry model, the halocarbon model, and the UV-B impact model. In Part 3 an uncertainty analysis of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion is presented (Chapter 4). Chapter 5 briefly reviews the social and economic uncertainties implied by future greenhouse gas emissions. Chapters 6 and 7 describe a model and sensitivity analysis pertaining to the scientific uncertainties and/or lacunae in the sources and sinks of methane and carbon dioxide, and their biogeochemical feedback processes. Chapter 8 presents an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the carbon cycle model, the halocarbon model, and the IMAGE model 1.6 as a whole. Part 4 presents the risk assessment methodology as applied to the problems of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion more specifically. In Chapter 10, this methodology is used as a means with which to asses current ozone policy and a wide range of halocarbon policies. Chapter 11 presents and evaluates the simulated globally-averaged temperature and sea level rise (indicators) for the IPCC-1990 and 1992 scenarios, concluding with a Low Risk scenario, which would meet the climate targets. Chapter 12 discusses the impact of sea level rise on the frequency of the Dutch coastal defence system (indicator) for the IPCC-1990 scenarios. Chapter 13 presents projections of mortality rates due to stratospheric ozone depletion based on model simulations employing the UV-B chain model for a number of halocarbon policies. Chapter 14 presents an approach for allocating future emissions of CO 2 among regions. (Abstract Truncated)

  4. Mesh climate change data of Japan ver. 2 for climate change impact assessments under IPCC SRES A1B and A2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okada, M.; Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Yokozawa, M.

    2009-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in 2007 and stated that recent climate change and variation are induced by increases in the atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHG) concentration due to anthropogenic activities. The report includes the results of impact assessments on a wide range of sectors. These assessments have been conducted based on future climate projections, which refer to aspects of the future climate evaluated by Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs). The projection data used in the AR4 are archived under the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) promoted by the U.S. Department of Energy. We interpolated the projection data around Japan and constructed a dataset entitled the 'Mesh climate change data of Japan Ver. 2' for the climate change impact study. Nine projections performed by seven models under the A1B and A2 of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) were implemented for the dataset. They consist of mesh data with a size of 7.5 min in longitude and 5.0 min in latitude, i.e. approximately 10 X 10 km (45 sec in longitude and 30 sec in latitude, approximately 1 x 1 km, for one high-resolution model). The dataset includes five climatic elements, i.e. the daily mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures, daily total precipitation, and daily accumulated shortwave radiation for three periods, 1981-2000, 2046-2065, and 2081-2100. This article describes the details concerning the construction and characteristics of the data

  5. Modeling pedestrian crossing speed profiles considering speed change behavior for the safety assessment of signalized intersections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iryo-Asano, Miho; Alhajyaseen, Wael K M

    2017-11-01

    Pedestrian safety is one of the most challenging issues in road networks. Understanding how pedestrians maneuver across an intersection is the key to applying countermeasures against traffic crashes. It is known that the behaviors of pedestrians at signalized crosswalks are significantly different from those in ordinary walking spaces, and they are highly influenced by signal indication, potential conflicts with vehicles, and intersection geometries. One of the most important characteristics of pedestrian behavior at crosswalks is the possible sudden speed change while crossing. Such sudden behavioral change may not be expected by conflicting vehicles, which may lead to hazardous situations. This study aims to quantitatively model the sudden speed changes of pedestrians as they cross signalized crosswalks under uncongested conditions. Pedestrian speed profiles are collected from empirical data and speed change events are extracted assuming that the speed profiles are stepwise functions. The occurrence of speed change events is described by a discrete choice model as a function of the necessary walking speed to complete crossing before the red interval ends, current speed, and the presence of turning vehicles in the conflict area. The amount of speed change before and after the event is modeled using regression analysis. A Monte Carlo simulation is applied for the entire speed profile of the pedestrians. The results show that the model can represent the pedestrian travel time distribution more accurately than the constant speed model. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Modeling human intention formation for human reliability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woods, D.D.; Roth, E.M.; Pople, H. Jr.

    1988-01-01

    This paper describes a dynamic simulation capability for modeling how people form intentions to act in nuclear power plant emergency situations. This modeling tool, Cognitive Environment Simulation or CES, was developed based on techniques from artificial intelligence. It simulates the cognitive processes that determine situation assessment and intention formation. It can be used to investigate analytically what situations and factors lead to intention failures, what actions follow from intention failures (e.g. errors of omission, errors of commission, common mode errors), the ability to recover from errors or additional machine failures, and the effects of changes in the NPP person machine system. One application of the CES modeling environment is to enhance the measurement of the human contribution to risk in probabilistic risk assessment studies. (author)

  7. Assessment of the assessment: Evaluation of the model quality estimates in CASP10

    KAUST Repository

    Kryshtafovych, Andriy

    2013-08-31

    The article presents an assessment of the ability of the thirty-seven model quality assessment (MQA) methods participating in CASP10 to provide an a priori estimation of the quality of structural models, and of the 67 tertiary structure prediction groups to provide confidence estimates for their predicted coordinates. The assessment of MQA predictors is based on the methods used in previous CASPs, such as correlation between the predicted and observed quality of the models (both at the global and local levels), accuracy of methods in distinguishing between good and bad models as well as good and bad regions within them, and ability to identify the best models in the decoy sets. Several numerical evaluations were used in our analysis for the first time, such as comparison of global and local quality predictors with reference (baseline) predictors and a ROC analysis of the predictors\\' ability to differentiate between the well and poorly modeled regions. For the evaluation of the reliability of self-assessment of the coordinate errors, we used the correlation between the predicted and observed deviations of the coordinates and a ROC analysis of correctly identified errors in the models. A modified two-stage procedure for testing MQA methods in CASP10 whereby a small number of models spanning the whole range of model accuracy was released first followed by the release of a larger number of models of more uniform quality, allowed a more thorough analysis of abilities and inabilities of different types of methods. Clustering methods were shown to have an advantage over the single- and quasi-single- model methods on the larger datasets. At the same time, the evaluation revealed that the size of the dataset has smaller influence on the global quality assessment scores (for both clustering and nonclustering methods), than its diversity. Narrowing the quality range of the assessed models caused significant decrease in accuracy of ranking for global quality predictors but

  8. Reconstructing Climate Change: The Model-Data Ping-Pong

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stocker, T. F.

    2017-12-01

    When Cesare Emiliani, the father of paleoceanography, made the first attempts at a quantitative reconstruction of Pleistocene climate change in the early 1950s, climate models were not yet conceived. The understanding of paleoceanographic records was therefore limited, and scientists had to resort to plausibility arguments to interpret their data. With the advent of coupled climate models in the early 1970s, for the first time hypotheses about climate processes and climate change could be tested in a dynamically consistent framework. However, only a model hierarchy can cope with the long time scales and the multi-component physical-biogeochemical Earth System. There are many examples how climate models have inspired the interpretation of paleoclimate data on the one hand, and conversely, how data have questioned long-held concepts and models. In this lecture I critically revisit a few examples of this model-data ping-pong, such as the bipolar seesaw, the mid-Holocene greenhouse gas increase, millennial and rapid CO2 changes reconstructed from polar ice cores, and the interpretation of novel paleoceanographic tracers. These examples also highlight many of the still unsolved questions and provide guidance for future research. The combination of high-resolution paleoceanographic data and modeling has never been more relevant than today. It will be the key for an appropriate risk assessment of impacts on the Earth System that are already underway in the Anthropocene.

  9. Linked models to assess the impacts of climate change on nitrogen in a Norwegian river basin and fjord system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaste, O.; Wright, R.F.; Barkved, L.J.; Bjerkeng, B.; Engen-Skaugen, T.; Magnusson, J.; Saelthun, N.R.

    2006-01-01

    Dynamically downscaled data from two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs), ECHAM4 from the Max-Planck Institute (MPI), Germany and HadAm3H from the Hadley Centre (HAD), UK, driven with two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (IS92a and A2, respectively) were used to make climate change projections. These projections were then used to drive four effect models linked to assess the effects on hydrology, and nitrogen (N) concentrations and fluxes, in the Bjerkreim river basin (685-km 2 ) and its coastal fjord, southwestern Norway. The four effect models were the hydrological model HBV, the water quality models MAGIC, INCA-N and the NIVA FJORD model. The downscaled climate scenarios project a general temperature increase in the study region of approximately 1 deg. C by 2030-2049 (MPI IS92a) and approximately 3 deg. C by 2071-2100 (HAD A2). Both scenarios imply increased winter precipitation, whereas the projections of summer and autumn precipitation are quite different, with the MPI scenario projecting a slight increase and the HAD scenario a significant decrease. As a response to increased winter temperature, the HBV model simulates a dramatic reduction of snow accumulation in the upper parts of the catchment, which in turn lead to higher runoff during winter and lower runoff during snowmelt in the spring. With the HAD scenario, runoff in summer and early autumn is substantially reduced as a result of reduced precipitation, increased temperatures and thereby increased evapotranspiration. The water quality models, MAGIC and INCA-N project no major changes in nitrate (NO 3 - ) concentrations and fluxes within the MPI scenario, but a significant increase in concentrations and a 40-50% increase in fluxes in the HAD scenario. As a consequence, the acidification of the river could increase, thus offsetting ongoing recovery from acidification due to reductions in acid deposition. Additionally, the increased N loading may stimulate growth of N-limited benthic

  10. Integrated assessment of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgan, M.G.

    1994-01-01

    Many researchers are working on all the separate parts of the climate problem. The objective of integrated assessment is to put the results from this work together in order to look carefully at the big picture so as to: (1) keep a proper sense of perspective about the problem, since climate change will occur in the presence of many other natural and human changes; (2) develop the understanding necessary to support informed decision making by many different key public and private actors around the world; and (3) assure that the type and mix of climate-related research that is undertaken will be as useful as possible to decisions makers in both the near and long term. This paper outlines a set of design guidelines for formulating integrated assessment programs and projects and then outlines some of the current problems and opportunities. Selected points are illustrated by drawing on results from the integrated assessment research now in progress at Carnegie Mellon University

  11. A comparison of metrics for assessing state-of-the-art climate models and implications for probabilistic projections of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ring, Christoph; Pollinger, Felix; Kaspar-Ott, Irena; Hertig, Elke; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Paeth, Heiko

    2018-03-01

    A major task of climate science are reliable projections of climate change for the future. To enable more solid statements and to decrease the range of uncertainty, global general circulation models and regional climate models are evaluated based on a 2 × 2 contingency table approach to generate model weights. These weights are compared among different methodologies and their impact on probabilistic projections of temperature and precipitation changes is investigated. Simulated seasonal precipitation and temperature for both 50-year trends and climatological means are assessed at two spatial scales: in seven study regions around the globe and in eight sub-regions of the Mediterranean area. Overall, 24 models of phase 3 and 38 models of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project altogether 159 transient simulations of precipitation and 119 of temperature from four emissions scenarios are evaluated against the ERA-20C reanalysis over the 20th century. The results show high conformity with previous model evaluation studies. The metrics reveal that mean of precipitation and both temperature mean and trend agree well with the reference dataset and indicate improvement for the more recent ensemble mean, especially for temperature. The method is highly transferrable to a variety of further applications in climate science. Overall, there are regional differences of simulation quality, however, these are less pronounced than those between the results for 50-year mean and trend. The trend results are suitable for assigning weighting factors to climate models. Yet, the implications for probabilistic climate projections is strictly dependent on the region and season.

  12. Development of the KINS Safety Culture Maturity Model for Self and Independent Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheen, C.; Choi, Y.S.

    2016-01-01

    Safety culture of an organization is cultivated and affected not only by societal and regulatory environment of the organization, but by its philosophies, policies, events and activities experienced in the process of accomplishing its mission. The safety culture would be continuously changed by the interactions between its members along with time as an organic entity. In order to perform a systematic self- or independent assessment of safety culture, a safety culture assessment model (SCAM) properly reflecting cultural characteristics should be necessary. In addition, a SCAM should be helpful not only to establish correct directions, goals, and strategies for safety culture development, but should anticipating obstacles against safety culture development in the implementation process derived from the assessment. In practical terms, a SCAM should be useful for deriving effective guidelines and implementing of corrective action programs for the evaluated organization. Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety (KINS) performed a research project for six years to develop a SCAM satisfying the above prerequisites for self- and independent assessment. The KINS SCAM was developed based on the five stage safety culture maturity model proposed by Professor Patrick Hudson and was modified into four stages to reflect existing safety culture assessment experiences at Korean nuclear power plants. In order to define the change mechanism of safety culture for development and reversion, the change model proposed by Prochaska and DiClemente was introduced into KINS SCAM and developed into the Spiral Change Model.

  13. Design Change Model for Effective Scheduling Change Propagation Paths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hai-Zhu; Ding, Guo-Fu; Li, Rong; Qin, Sheng-Feng; Yan, Kai-Yin

    2017-09-01

    Changes in requirements may result in the increasing of product development project cost and lead time, therefore, it is important to understand how requirement changes propagate in the design of complex product systems and be able to select best options to guide design. Currently, a most approach for design change is lack of take the multi-disciplinary coupling relationships and the number of parameters into account integrally. A new design change model is presented to systematically analyze and search change propagation paths. Firstly, a PDS-Behavior-Structure-based design change model is established to describe requirement changes causing the design change propagation in behavior and structure domains. Secondly, a multi-disciplinary oriented behavior matrix is utilized to support change propagation analysis of complex product systems, and the interaction relationships of the matrix elements are used to obtain an initial set of change paths. Finally, a rough set-based propagation space reducing tool is developed to assist in narrowing change propagation paths by computing the importance of the design change parameters. The proposed new design change model and its associated tools have been demonstrated by the scheduling change propagation paths of high speed train's bogie to show its feasibility and effectiveness. This model is not only supportive to response quickly to diversified market requirements, but also helpful to satisfy customer requirements and reduce product development lead time. The proposed new design change model can be applied in a wide range of engineering systems design with improved efficiency.

  14. Climate Change Impact Assessment of Hydro-Climate in Southern Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M. L.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Impacts of climate change on the hydroclimate of the coastal region in the south of Peninsular Malaysia in the 21st century was assessed by means of a regional climate model utilizing an ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations. Coarse resolution Global Climate Models' future projections covering four emission scenarios based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) datasets were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over the study area. The analyses were made in terms of rainfall, air temperature, evapotranporation, and soil water storage.

  15. Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Arneth, Almut; Calvin, Katherine; Doelman, Jonathan; Eitelberg, David A; Engström, Kerstin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Jain, Atul K; Krisztin, Tamás; Kyle, Page; Meiyappan, Prasanth; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald D; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Schüngel, Jan; Stehfest, Elke; Tabeau, Andrzej; Van Meijl, Hans; Van Vliet, Jasper; Verburg, Peter H

    2016-12-01

    Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC

  16. Nation-wide assessment of climate change impacts on crops in the Philippines and Peru as part of multi-disciplinary modelling framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture is vulnerable to environmental changes, and climate change has been recognized as one of the most devastating factors. In many developing countries, however, few studies have focused on nation-wide assessment of crop yield and crop suitability in the future, and hence there is a large pressure on science to provide policy makers with solid predictions for major crops in the countries in support of climate risk management policies and programmes. FAO has developed the tool MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change) where statistical climate downscaling is combined with crop yield projections under climate change scenarios. Three steps are required to get the results: 1. The historical meteorological data such as temperature and precipitation for about 30 years were collected, and future climates were statistically downscaled to the local scale, 2. The historical crop yield data were collected and regression functions were made to estimate the yield by using observed climatic data and water balance during the growing period for each crop, and 3. The yield changes in the future were estimated by using the future climate data, produced by the first step, as an input to the yield regression functions. The yield was first simulated at sub-national scale and aggregated to national scale, which is intended to provide national policies with adaptation options. The methodology considers future changes in characteristics of extreme weather events as the climate projections are on daily scale while crop simulations are on 10-daily scale. Yields were simulated with two greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs) for three GCMs per crop to account for uncertainties in projections. The crop assessment constitutes a larger multi-disciplinary assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture and vulnerability of livelihoods in terms of food security (e.g. water resources, agriculture market, household-level food security from socio

  17. Smooth random change point models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Hout, Ardo; Muniz-Terrera, Graciela; Matthews, Fiona E

    2011-03-15

    Change point models are used to describe processes over time that show a change in direction. An example of such a process is cognitive ability, where a decline a few years before death is sometimes observed. A broken-stick model consists of two linear parts and a breakpoint where the two lines intersect. Alternatively, models can be formulated that imply a smooth change between the two linear parts. Change point models can be extended by adding random effects to account for variability between subjects. A new smooth change point model is introduced and examples are presented that show how change point models can be estimated using functions in R for mixed-effects models. The Bayesian inference using WinBUGS is also discussed. The methods are illustrated using data from a population-based longitudinal study of ageing, the Cambridge City over 75 Cohort Study. The aim is to identify how many years before death individuals experience a change in the rate of decline of their cognitive ability. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Climate change vulnerability assessment in Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binita KC; J. Marshall Shepherd; Cassandra Johnson Gaither

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is occurring in the Southeastern United States, and one manifestation is changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events. A vulnerability assessment is performed in the state of Georgia (United States) at the county level from 1975 to 2012 in decadal increments. Climate change vulnerability is typically measured as a function of exposure to physical...

  19. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  20. Compartmental models for assessing the fishery production in the Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Dalal, S.G.; Parulekar, A.H.

    Compartmental models for assessing the fishery production in the Indian Ocean is discussed. The article examines the theoretical basis on which modern fishery sciences is built. The model shows that, large changes in energy flux from one pathway...

  1. Assessing Ecosystem Model Performance in Semiarid Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, A.; Dietze, M.; Scott, R. L.; Biederman, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    In ecosystem process modelling, comparing outputs to benchmark datasets observed in the field is an important way to validate models, allowing the modelling community to track model performance over time and compare models at specific sites. Multi-model comparison projects as well as models themselves have largely been focused on temperate forests and similar biomes. Semiarid regions, on the other hand, are underrepresented in land surface and ecosystem modelling efforts, and yet will be disproportionately impacted by disturbances such as climate change due to their sensitivity to changes in the water balance. Benchmarking models at semiarid sites is an important step in assessing and improving models' suitability for predicting the impact of disturbance on semiarid ecosystems. In this study, several ecosystem models were compared at a semiarid grassland in southwestern Arizona using PEcAn, or the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer, an open-source eco-informatics toolbox ideal for creating the repeatable model workflows necessary for benchmarking. Models included SIPNET, DALEC, JULES, ED2, GDAY, LPJ-GUESS, MAESPA, CLM, CABLE, and FATES. Comparison between model output and benchmarks such as net ecosystem exchange (NEE) tended to produce high root mean square error and low correlation coefficients, reflecting poor simulation of seasonality and the tendency for models to create much higher carbon sources than observed. These results indicate that ecosystem models do not currently adequately represent semiarid ecosystem processes.

  2. Modeling the water balance of sloped vineyards under various climate change scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hofmann Marco

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Grapes for wine production are a highly climate sensitive crop and vineyard water budget is a decisive factor in quality formation. In order to conduct risk assessments for climate change effects in viticulture, models are needed which can be applied to complete growing regions. We first modified an existing simplified geometric vineyard model of radiation interception and resulting water use to incorporate numerical Monte Carlo simulations and the physical aspects of radiation interactions between canopy and vineyard slope and azimuth. We then used four regional climate models to assess for possible effects on the water budget of selected vineyard sites up to 2100. The model was developed to describe the partitioning of short-wave radiation between grapevine canopy and soil surface, respectively green cover, necessary to calculate vineyard evapotranspiration. Soil water storage was allocated to two sub reservoirs. The model was adopted for steep slope vineyards based on coordinate transformation and validated against measurements of grapevine sap flow and soil water content determined down to 1.6 m depth at three different sites over two years. The results showed good agreement of modelled and observed soil water dynamics of vineyards with large variations in site specific soil water holding capacity and viticultural management. Simulated sap flow was in overall good agreement with measured sap flow but site-specific responses of sap flow to potential evapotranspiration were observed. The analyses of climate change impacts on vineyard water budget demonstrated the importance of site-specific assessment due to natural variations in soil water holding capacity. The model was capable of describing seasonal and site-specific dynamics in soil water content and could be used in an amended version to estimate changes in the water budget of entire grape growing areas due to evolving climatic changes.

  3. Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bindi, M.; Palosuo, T.; Trnka, Miroslav; Semenov, M. A.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 65, SEP (2015), s. 3-5 ISSN 0936-577X Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Crop production Upscaling * Climate change impact and adaptation assessments * Upscaling * Model ensembles Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.690, year: 2015

  4. The relative impact of climate change mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity - An integrated assessment modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J. A.; Clarke, L. E.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Chaturvedi, V.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Kim, S.; Calvin, K. V.; Moss, R. H.

    2012-12-01

    We investigate the relative effects of climate emission mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally, by estimating both water availability and demand within a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change - the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We first develop a global gridded monthly hydrologic model that reproduces historical streamflow observations and simulates the future availability of freshwater under both a changing climate and an evolving landscape, and incorporate this model into GCAM. We then develop and incorporate technologically oriented representations of water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. To perform the water scarcity analysis at the grid scale, the global water demands for the six demand sectors are spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. The water scarcity index (WSI) compares total water demand to the total amount of renewable water available, and defines extreme water scarcity in any region as demand greater than 40% of total water availability. Using a reference scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 by 2095 and a global population of 14 billion, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demands for water exceed the total

  5. Risk assessments of regional climate change over Europe: generation of probabilistic ensemble and uncertainty assessment for EURO-CODEX

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, J.; Kopp, R. E.

    2017-12-01

    Quantitative risk analysis of regional climate change is crucial for risk management and impact assessment of climate change. Two major challenges to assessing the risks of climate change are: CMIP5 model runs, which drive EURO-CODEX downscaling runs, do not cover the full range of uncertainty of future projections; Climate models may underestimate the probability of tail risks (i.e. extreme events). To overcome the difficulties, this study offers a viable avenue, where a set of probabilistic climate ensemble is generated using the Surrogate/Model Mixed Ensemble (SMME) method. The probabilistic ensembles for temperature and precipitation are used to assess the range of uncertainty covered by five bias-corrected simulations from the high-resolution (0.11º) EURO-CODEX database, which are selected by the PESETA (The Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up Analysis) III project. Results show that the distribution of SMME ensemble is notably wider than both distribution of raw ensemble of GCMs and the spread of the five EURO-CORDEX in RCP8.5. Tail risks are well presented by the SMME ensemble. Both SMME ensemble and EURO-CORDEX projections are aggregated to administrative level, and are integrated into impact functions of PESETA III to assess climate risks in Europe. To further evaluate the uncertainties introduced by the downscaling process, we compare the 5 runs from EURO-CORDEX with runs from the corresponding GCMs. Time series of regional mean, spatial patterns, and climate indices are examined for the future climate (2080-2099) deviating from the present climate (1981-2010). The downscaling processes do not appear to be trend-preserving, e.g. the increase in regional mean temperature from EURO-CORDEX is slower than that from the corresponding GCM. The spatial pattern comparison reveals that the differences between each pair of GCM and EURO-CORDEX are small in winter. In summer, the temperatures of EURO

  6. Taking into account the impact of attrition on the assessment of response shift and true change: a multigroup structural equation modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdam, Mathilde G E; Oort, Frans J; van der Linden, Yvette M; Sprangers, Mirjam A G

    2015-03-01

    Missing data due to attrition present a challenge for the assessment and interpretation of change and response shift in HRQL outcomes. The objective was to handle such missingness and to assess response shift and 'true change' with the use of an attrition-based multigroup structural equation modeling (SEM) approach. Functional limitations and health impairments were measured in 1,157 cancer patients, who were treated with palliative radiotherapy for painful bone metastases, before [time (T) 0], every week after treatment (T1 through T12), and then monthly for up to 2 years (T13 through T24). To handle missing data due to attrition, the SEM procedure was extended to a multigroup approach, in which we distinguished three groups: short survival (3-5 measurements), medium survival (6-12 measurements), and long survival (>12 measurements). Attrition after third, sixth, and 13th measurement occasions was 11, 24, and 41 %, respectively. Results show that patterns of change in functional limitations and health impairments differ between patients with short, medium, or long survival. Moreover, three response-shift effects were detected: recalibration of 'pain' and 'sickness' and reprioritization of 'physical functioning.' If response-shift effects would not have been taken into account, functional limitations and health impairments would generally be underestimated across measurements. The multigroup SEM approach enables the analysis of data from patients with different patterns of missing data due to attrition. This approach does not only allow for detection of response shift and assessment of true change across measurements, but also allow for detection of differences in response shift and true change across groups of patients with different attrition rates.

  7. Climate change adaptation impact cost assessment in France. Second phase report. September 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    Firstly, this report presents the context and challenges of works dealing with climate change adaptation assessment: observations and perspectives of climate change, concepts and definitions of adaptation to climate change, adaptation within national, European and international context, objectives and organisation of the France's inter-departmental Group. It describes the chosen methodology: hypothesis, methodological tools (climate model), bibliographical tool, and heat wave counting methodology. It discusses the present results, outlines the encountered difficulties and discusses the perspectives for future work

  8. Assessment of winter wheat loss risk impacted by climate change from 1982 to 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Xin

    2017-04-01

    The world's farmers will face increasing pressure to grow more food on less land in succeeding few decades, because it seems that the continuous population growth and agricultural products turning to biofuels would extend several decades into the future. Therefore, the increased demand for food supply worldwide calls for improved accuracy of crop productivity estimation and assessment of grain production loss risk. Extensive studies have been launched to evaluate the impacts of climate change on crop production based on various crop models drove with global or regional climate model (GCM/RCM) output. However, assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture productivity is plagued with uncertainties of the future climate change scenarios and complexity of crop model. Therefore, given uncertain climate conditions and a lack of model parameters, these methods are strictly limited in application. In this study, an empirical assessment approach for crop loss risk impacted by water stress has been established and used to evaluate the risk of winter wheat loss in China, United States, Germany, France and United Kingdom. The average value of winter wheat loss risk impacted by water stress for the three countries of Europe is about -931kg/ha, which is obviously higher in contrast with that in China (-570kg/ha) and in United States (-367kg/ha). Our study has important implications for further application of operational assessment of crop loss risk at a country or region scale. Future studies should focus on using higher spatial resolution remote sensing data, combining actual evapo-transpiration to estimate water stress, improving the method for downscaling of statistic crop yield data, and establishing much more rational and elaborate zoning method.

  9. A relationship between regional and global GCM surface air temperature changes and its application to an integrated model of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jonas, M.; Ganopolski, A.V.; Krabec, J.; Olendrzyski, K.; Petoukhov, V.K.

    1994-01-01

    This study outlines the advantages of combining the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse affect (IMAGE, an integrated quick turnaround, global model of climate change) with a spatially detailed General Circulation Model (GCM), in this case developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI) in Hamburg. The outcome is a modified IMAGE model that simulates the MPI GCM projections of annual surface air temperature change globally and regionally. IMAGE thus provides policy analysts with integrated and regional information about global warming for a great range of policy-dependent greenhouse gas emission or concentration scenarios, while preserving its quick turnaround time. With the help of IMAGE various regional temperature response simulations have been produced. None of these simulations has yet been performed by any GCM. The simulations reflect the uncertainty range of a future warming. In this study the authors deal only with a simplified subsystem of such an integrated model of climate change, which begins with policy options, neglects the societal component in the greenhouse gas accounting tool, and ends with temperature change as the only output of the climate model. The model the authors employ is the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE, version 1.0), which was developed by the Netherlands National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM). IMAGE is a scientifically based, parameterized simulation policy model designed to calculate the historical and future effects of greenhouse gases on global surface and surface air temperatures and sea-level rise

  10. A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herslund, Lise Byskov; Jalyer, Fatameh; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub- Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability...... in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional...... encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential...

  11. Assessment of the Ability of Contemporary Climate Models to Assess Adequately the Risk of Possible Regional Anomalies and Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokhov, I. I.

    2018-04-01

    The results describing the ability of contemporary global and regional climate models not only to assess the risk of general trends of changes but also to predict qualitatively new regional effects are presented. In particular, model simulations predicted spatially inhomogeneous changes in the wind and wave conditions in the Arctic basins, which have been confirmed in recent years. According to satellite and reanalysis data, a qualitative transition to the regime predicted by model simulations occurred about a decade ago.

  12. Climate change impact assessment on urban rainfall extremes and urban drainage: Methods and shortcomings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, P.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Olsson, J.

    2012-01-01

    Cities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to flooding because of rapid urbanization, installation of complex infrastructure, and changes in the precipitation patterns caused by anthropogenic climate change. The present paper provides a critical review of the current state-of-the-art methods...... for assessing the impacts of climate change on precipitation at the urban catchment scale. Downscaling of results from global circulation models or regional climate models to urban catchment scales are needed because these models are not able to describe accurately the rainfall process at suitable high temporal...... and spatial resolution for urban drainage studies. The downscaled rainfall results are however highly uncertain, depending on the models and downscaling methods considered. This uncertainty becomes more challenging for rainfall extremes since the properties of these extremes do not automatically reflect those...

  13. The predictive skill of species distribution models for plankton in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brun, Philipp Georg; Kiørboe, Thomas; Licandro, Priscilla

    2016-01-01

    Statistical species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to project spatial relocations of marine taxa under future climate change scenarios. However, tests of their predictive skill in the real-world are rare. Here, we use data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder program, one...... null models, is essential to assess the robustness of projections of marine planktonic species under climate change...

  14. Climate Modeling Computing Needs Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petraska, K. E.; McCabe, J. D.

    2011-12-01

    This paper discusses early findings of an assessment of computing needs for NASA science, engineering and flight communities. The purpose of this assessment is to document a comprehensive set of computing needs that will allow us to better evaluate whether our computing assets are adequately structured to meet evolving demand. The early results are interesting, already pointing out improvements we can make today to get more out of the computing capacity we have, as well as potential game changing innovations for the future in how we apply information technology to science computing. Our objective is to learn how to leverage our resources in the best way possible to do more science for less money. Our approach in this assessment is threefold: Development of use case studies for science workflows; Creating a taxonomy and structure for describing science computing requirements; and characterizing agency computing, analysis, and visualization resources. As projects evolve, science data sets increase in a number of ways: in size, scope, timelines, complexity, and fidelity. Generating, processing, moving, and analyzing these data sets places distinct and discernable requirements on underlying computing, analysis, storage, and visualization systems. The initial focus group for this assessment is the Earth Science modeling community within NASA's Science Mission Directorate (SMD). As the assessment evolves, this focus will expand to other science communities across the agency. We will discuss our use cases, our framework for requirements and our characterizations, as well as our interview process, what we learned and how we plan to improve our materials after using them in the first round of interviews in the Earth Science Modeling community. We will describe our plans for how to expand this assessment, first into the Earth Science data analysis and remote sensing communities, and then throughout the full community of science, engineering and flight at NASA.

  15. A spatially distributed model for assessment of the effects of changing land use and climate on urban stream quality: Development of a Spatially Distributed Urban Water Quality Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Ning [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle WA USA; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Yearsley, John [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle WA USA; Baptiste, Marisa [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle WA USA; Cao, Qian [Department of Geography, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles CA USA; Lettenmaier, Dennis P. [Department of Geography, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles CA USA; Nijssen, Bart [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle WA USA

    2016-08-22

    While the effects of land use change in urban areas have been widely examined, the combined effects of climate and land use change on the quality of urban and urbanizing streams have received much less attention. We describe a modeling framework that is applicable to the evaluation of potential changes in urban water quality and associated hydrologic changes in response to ongoing climate and landscape alteration. The grid-based spatially distributed model, DHSVM-WQ, is an outgrowth of the Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM) that incorporates modules for assessing hydrology and water quality in urbanized watersheds at a high spatial and temporal resolution. DHSVM-WQ simulates surface runoff quality and in-stream processes that control the transport of nonpoint-source (NPS) pollutants into urban streams. We configure DHSVM-WQ for three partially urbanized catchments in the Puget Sound region to evaluate the water quality responses to current conditions and projected changes in climate and/or land use over the next century. Here we focus on total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) from nonpoint sources (runoff), as well as stream temperature. The projection of future land use is characterized by a combination of densification in existing urban or partially urban areas, and expansion of the urban footprint. The climate change scenarios consist of individual and concurrent changes in temperature and precipitation. Future precipitation is projected to increase in winter and decrease in summer, while future temperature is projected to increase throughout the year. Our results show that urbanization has a much greater effect than climate change on both the magnitude and seasonal variability of streamflow, TSS and TP loads largely due to substantially increased streamflow, and particularly winter flow peaks. Water temperature is more sensitive to climate warming scenarios than to urbanization and precipitation changes. Future urbanization and

  16. Impact assessment and coastal climate change adaptation in a local transdisciplinary perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Broge, N. H.; Knudsen, Per

    , private and public institutions, and the local communities provides: understanding of the immediate and potential future challenges; appreciation of different stakeholder motives, business agendas, legislative constraints etc., and common focus on how to cost-efficiently adapt to and manage impacts......From an applied point of view, the authors present and discuss inter- and transdisciplinary approaches to assess and deal with natural coastal hazards and climate change impacts. The construction of a shared working platform for knowledge integration across levels of governance and between research...... of climate change. The platform is dynamically updated with additional data and knowledge, e.g. from climate change evidence, or, by provision of updated regional models of future sea level rise. In order to integrate natural hazards and impact development over time, models on hydrology, geology...

  17. The assessment of two-fluid models using critical flow data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shome, B.; Lahey, R.T. Jr.

    1992-01-01

    The behavior of two-phase flow is governed by the thermal-hydraulic transfers occurring across phasic interfaces. If correctly formulated, two-fluid models should yield all conceivable evolutions. Moreover, some experiments may be uniquely qualified for model assessment if they can isolate important closure models. This paper is primarily concerned with the possible assessment of the virtual mass force using air-water critical flow data, in which phase-change effects do not take place. The following conclusions can be drawn from this study: (1) The closure parameters, other than those for cirtual mass, were found to have an insignificant effect on critical flow. In contrast, the void fraction profile and the slip ratio were observed to be sensitive to the virtual mass model. (2) It appears that air-water critical flow experiments may be effectively used for the assessment of the virtual mass force used in two-fluid models. In fact, such experiments are unique in their ability to isolate the spatial gradients in a vm models. It is hoped that this study will help stimulate the conduct of further critical flow experiments for the assessment of two fluid models

  18. Modeling technical change in climate analysis: evidence from agricultural crop damages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Adeel; Devadason, Evelyn S; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem

    2017-05-01

    This study accounts for the Hicks neutral technical change in a calibrated model of climate analysis, to identify the optimum level of technical change for addressing climate changes. It demonstrates the reduction to crop damages, the costs to technical change, and the net gains for the adoption of technical change for a climate-sensitive Pakistan economy. The calibrated model assesses the net gains of technical change for the overall economy and at the agriculture-specific level. The study finds that the gains of technical change are overwhelmingly higher than the costs across the agriculture subsectors. The gains and costs following technical change differ substantially for different crops. More importantly, the study finds a cost-effective optimal level of technical change that potentially reduces crop damages to a minimum possible level. The study therefore contends that the climate policy for Pakistan should consider the role of technical change in addressing climate impacts on the agriculture sector.

  19. Mediterranean climate modelling: variability and climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-12-01

    Air-sea fluxes, open-sea deep convection and cyclo-genesis are studied in the Mediterranean with the development of a regional coupled model (AORCM). It accurately simulates these processes and their climate variabilities are quantified and studied. The regional coupling shows a significant impact on the number of winter intense cyclo-genesis as well as on associated air-sea fluxes and precipitation. A lower inter-annual variability than in non-coupled models is simulated for fluxes and deep convection. The feedbacks driving this variability are understood. The climate change response is then analysed for the 21. century with the non-coupled models: cyclo-genesis decreases, associated precipitation increases in spring and autumn and decreases in summer. Moreover, a warming and salting of the Mediterranean as well as a strong weakening of its thermohaline circulation occur. This study also concludes with the necessity of using AORCMs to assess climate change impacts on the Mediterranean. (author)

  20. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-01-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

  1. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-13

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  2. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  3. Reviewing Bayesian Networks potentials for climate change impacts assessment and management: A multi-risk perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperotto, Anna; Molina, José-Luis; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2017-11-01

    The evaluation and management of climate change impacts on natural and human systems required the adoption of a multi-risk perspective in which the effect of multiple stressors, processes and interconnections are simultaneously modelled. Despite Bayesian Networks (BNs) are popular integrated modelling tools to deal with uncertain and complex domains, their application in the context of climate change still represent a limited explored field. The paper, drawing on the review of existing applications in the field of environmental management, discusses the potential and limitation of applying BNs to improve current climate change risk assessment procedures. Main potentials include the advantage to consider multiple stressors and endpoints in the same framework, their flexibility in dealing and communicate with the uncertainty of climate projections and the opportunity to perform scenario analysis. Some limitations (i.e. representation of temporal and spatial dynamics, quantitative validation), however, should be overcome to boost BNs use in climate change impacts assessment and management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Attribution of changes in the water balance of a tropical catchment to land use change using the SWAT model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marhaento, Hero; Booij, Martijn J.; Rientjes, T. H.M.; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.

    2017-01-01

    Changes in the water balance of the Samin catchment (277.9 km2) on Java, Indonesia, can be attributed to land use change using the Soil Water Assessment Tool model. A baseline-altered method was used in which the simulation period 1990–2013 was divided into 4 equal periods to represent baseline

  5. Assessment of climate change impact on yield of major crops in the Banas River Basin, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubey, Swatantra Kumar; Sharma, Devesh

    2018-09-01

    Crop growth models like AquaCrop are useful in understanding the impact of climate change on crop production considering the various projections from global circulation models and regional climate models. The present study aims to assess the climate change impact on yield of major crops in the Banas River Basin i.e., wheat, barley and maize. Banas basin is part of the semi-arid region of Rajasthan state in India. AquaCrop model is used to calculate the yield of all the three crops for a historical period of 30years (1981-2010) and then compared with observed yield data. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values are calculated to assess the model accuracy in prediction of yield. Further, the calibrated model is used to predict the possible impacts of climate change and CO 2 concentration on crop yield using CORDEX-SA climate projections of three driving climate models (CNRM-CM5, CCSM4 and MPI-ESM-LR) for two different scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the future period 2021-2050. RMSE values of simulated yield with respect to observed yield of wheat, barley and maize are 11.99, 16.15 and 19.13, respectively. It is predicted that crop yield of all three crops will increase under the climate change conditions for future period (2021-2050). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Uncertainty assessment of urban pluvial flood risk in a context of climate change adaptation decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian

    2014-01-01

    uncertainty analysis, which can assess and quantify the overall uncertainty in relation to climate change adaptation to urban flash floods. The analysis is based on an uncertainty cascade that by means of Monte Carlo simulations of flood risk assessments incorporates climate change impacts as a key driver......There has been a significant increase in climatic extremes in many regions. In Central and Northern Europe, this has led to more frequent and more severe floods. Along with improved flood modelling technologies this has enabled development of economic assessment of climate change adaptation...... to increasing urban flood risk. Assessment of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis of current risk, drivers of change of risk over time, and measures to reduce the risk. However, such studies are often associated with large uncertainties. The uncertainties arise from...

  7. Integrated Assessment Model Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, S. J.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J. A.; Weyant, J. P.

    2012-12-01

    Integrated assessment models of climate change (IAMs) are widely used to provide insights into the dynamics of the coupled human and socio-economic system, including emission mitigation analysis and the generation of future emission scenarios. Similar to the climate modeling community, the integrated assessment community has a two decade history of model inter-comparison, which has served as one of the primary venues for model evaluation and confirmation. While analysis of historical trends in the socio-economic system has long played a key role in diagnostics of future scenarios from IAMs, formal hindcast experiments are just now being contemplated as evaluation exercises. Some initial thoughts on setting up such IAM evaluation experiments are discussed. Socio-economic systems do not follow strict physical laws, which means that evaluation needs to take place in a context, unlike that of physical system models, in which there are few fixed, unchanging relationships. Of course strict validation of even earth system models is not possible (Oreskes etal 2004), a fact borne out by the inability of models to constrain the climate sensitivity. Energy-system models have also been grappling with some of the same questions over the last quarter century. For example, one of "the many questions in the energy field that are waiting for answers in the next 20 years" identified by Hans Landsberg in 1985 was "Will the price of oil resume its upward movement?" Of course we are still asking this question today. While, arguably, even fewer constraints apply to socio-economic systems, numerous historical trends and patterns have been identified, although often only in broad terms, that are used to guide the development of model components, parameter ranges, and scenario assumptions. IAM evaluation exercises are expected to provide useful information for interpreting model results and improving model behavior. A key step is the recognition of model boundaries, that is, what is inside

  8. Assessing the effect of climate change on carbon sequestration in a Mexican dry forest in the Yucatan Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Z. Dai; K.D. Johnson; R.A. Birdsey; J.L. Hernandez-Stefanoni; J.M. Dupuy

    2015-01-01

    Assessing the effect of climate change on carbon sequestration in tropical forest ecosystems is important to inform monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) for reducing deforestation and forest degradation (REDD), and to effectively assess forest management options under climate change. Two process-based models, Forest-DNDC and Biome-BGC, with different spatial...

  9. Agent Model Development for Assessing Climate-Induced Geopolitical Instability.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boslough, Mark B.; Backus, George A.

    2005-12-01

    We present the initial stages of development of new agent-based computational methods to generate and test hypotheses about linkages between environmental change and international instability. This report summarizes the first year's effort of an originally proposed three-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project. The preliminary work focused on a set of simple agent-based models and benefited from lessons learned in previous related projects and case studies of human response to climate change and environmental scarcity. Our approach was to define a qualitative model using extremely simple cellular agent models akin to Lovelock's Daisyworld and Schelling's segregation model. Such models do not require significant computing resources, and users can modify behavior rules to gain insights. One of the difficulties in agent-based modeling is finding the right balance between model simplicity and real-world representation. Our approach was to keep agent behaviors as simple as possible during the development stage (described herein) and to ground them with a realistic geospatial Earth system model in subsequent years. This work is directed toward incorporating projected climate data--including various C02 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report--and ultimately toward coupling a useful agent-based model to a general circulation model.3

  10. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Hagemann

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three and hydrological models (eight were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. This multi-model ensemble allows us to investigate how the hydrology models contribute to the uncertainty in projected hydrological changes compared to the climate models. Due to their systematic biases, GCM outputs cannot be used directly in hydrological impact studies, so a statistical bias correction has been applied. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climate–hydrology modelling chain for some regions. They clearly demonstrate that climate models are not the only source of uncertainty for hydrological change, and that the spread resulting from the choice of the hydrology model is larger than the spread originating from the climate models over many areas. But there are also areas showing a robust change signal, such as at high latitudes and in some midlatitude regions, where the models agree on the sign of projected hydrological changes, indicative of higher confidence in this ensemble mean signal. In many catchments an increase of available water resources is expected but there are some severe decreases in Central and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Mississippi River basin, southern Africa, southern China and south-eastern Australia.

  11. A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of water alterations under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Molina, Jose Luis; Pulido Velazquez, Manuel; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2017-04-01

    Understanding the co-evolution and interrelations between natural and human pressures on water systems is required to ensure a sustainable management of resources under uncertain climate change conditions. To pursue multi-disciplinary research is therefore necessary to consider the multiplicity of stressors affecting water resources, take into account alternative perspectives (i.e. social, economic and environmental objective and priorities) and deal with uncertainty which characterize climate change scenarios. However, approaches commonly adopted in water quality assessment are predominantly mono-disciplinary, single-stressors oriented and apply concepts and models specific of different academic disciplines (e.g. physics, hydrology, ecology, sociology, economy) which, in fact, seldom shed their conceptual blinders failing to provide truly integrated results. In this context, the paper discusses the benefits and limits of adopting a multi-disciplinary approach where different knowledge domains collaborate and quantitative and qualitative information, coming from multiple conceptual and model-based research, are integrated in a harmonic manner. Specifically, Bayesian Networks are used as meta-modelling tool for structuring and combining the probabilistic information available in existing hydrological models, climate change and land use projections, historical observations and expert opinion. The developed network allows to perform a stochastic multi-risk assessment considering the interlacing between climate (i.e. irregularities in water regime) and land use changes (i.e. agriculture, urbanization) and their cascading impacts on water quality parameters (i.e. nutrients loadings). Main objective of the model is the development of multi-risk scenarios to assess and communicate the probability of not meeting a "Good chemical water status" over future timeframe taking into account projected climatic and not climatic conditions. The outcomes are finally used to identify

  12. Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs for Climate Change Impact Assessment in the U.S. Northeast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Kazi Farzan; Wang, Guiling; Silander, John; Wilson, Adam M.; Allen, Jenica M.; Horton, Radley; Anyah, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Statistical downscaling can be used to efficiently downscale a large number of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to a fine temporal and spatial scale. To facilitate regional impact assessments, this study statistically downscales (to 1/8deg spatial resolution) and corrects the bias of daily maximum and minimum temperature and daily precipitation data from six GCMs and four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the northeast United States (US) using the Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction (SDBC) approach. Based on these downscaled data from multiple models, five extreme indices were analyzed for the future climate to quantify future changes of climate extremes. For a subset of models and indices, results based on raw and bias corrected model outputs for the present-day climate were compared with observations, which demonstrated that bias correction is important not only for GCM outputs, but also for RCM outputs. For future climate, bias correction led to a higher level of agreements among the models in predicting the magnitude and capturing the spatial pattern of the extreme climate indices. We found that the incorporation of dynamical downscaling as an intermediate step does not lead to considerable differences in the results of statistical downscaling for the study domain.

  13. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Songhua River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fengping Li

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The Songhua River Basin (SRB in Northeast China is one of the areas most sensitive to global climate change because of its high-latitude location. In this study, we conducted a modeling assessment on the potential change of water resources in this region for the coming three decades using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT. First, we calibrated and validated the model with historical streamflow records in this basin. Then, we applied the calibrated model for the period from 2020 to 2049 with the projected and downscaled climatic data under two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The study results show: (1 The SWAT model performed very well for both the calibration and validation periods in the SRB; (2 The projected temperatures showed a steady, significant increase across the SRB under both scenarios, especially in two sub-basins, the Nenjiang River Basin (NRB and the Lower SRB (LSRB. With regard to precipitation, both scenarios showed a decreasing trend in the NRB and LSRB but an increasing trend in the Upper Songhua River Basin (USRB; and (3, generally, the hydrologic modeling suggested a decreasing trend of streamflow for 2020–2049. Compared to baseline conditions (1980–2009, the streamflow in the NRB and LSRB would decrease by 20.3%–37.8%, while streamflow in the USRB would experience an increase of 9.68%–17.7%. These findings provide relevant insights into future surface water resources, and such information can be helpful for resource managers and policymakers to develop effective eco-environment management plans and strategies in the face of climate change.

  14. Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Preliminary Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coles, Garill A.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Brothers, Alan J.; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2009-06-01

    This Preliminary Assessment draft report will present the results of a literature search and preliminary assessment of the body of research, analysis methods, models and data deemed to be relevant to the Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment research. This report will provide: 1) a description of the problem space and the kinds of information pertinent to the problem space, 2) a discussion of key relevant or representative literature, 3) a discussion of models and modeling approaches judged to be potentially useful to the research, and 4) the next steps of this research that will be pursued based on this preliminary assessment. This draft report represents a technical deliverable for the NA-22 Simulations, Algorithms, and Modeling (SAM) program. Specifically this draft report is the Task 1 deliverable for project PL09-UtilSocial-PD06, Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment. This project investigates non-traditional use of social and cultural information to improve nuclear proliferation assessment, including nonproliferation assessment, proliferation resistance assessments, safeguards assessments and other related studies. These assessments often use and create technical information about the State’s posture towards proliferation, the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system to an undesired event, and the effectiveness of safeguards. This project will find and fuse social and technical information by explicitly considering the role of cultural, social and behavioral factors relevant to proliferation. The aim of this research is to describe and demonstrate if and how social science modeling has utility in proliferation assessment.

  15. A stochastic dynamic model to assess land use change scenarios on the ecological status of fluvial water bodies under the Water Framework Directive

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hughes, Samantha Jane, E-mail: shughes@utad.pt [Fluvial Ecology Laboratory, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Cabral, João Alexandre, E-mail: jcabral@utad.pt [Laboratory of Applied Ecology, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Bastos, Rita, E-mail: ritabastos@utad.pt [Laboratory of Applied Ecology, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Cortes, Rui, E-mail: rcortes@utad.pt [Fluvial Ecology Laboratory, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Vicente, Joana, E-mail: jsvicente@fc.up.pt [Centro de Investigacão em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos (CIBIO), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade do Porto, Porto (Portugal); Eitelberg, David, E-mail: d.a.eitelberg@vu.nl [Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); Yu, Huirong, E-mail: h.yu@vu.nl [Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, 2 Yuanmingyuan W. Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100193 (China); and others

    2016-09-15

    This method development paper outlines an integrative stochastic dynamic methodology (StDM) framework to anticipate land use (LU) change effects on the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic surface waters under the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Tested in the Alto Minho River Basin District in North West Portugal, the model is an innovative step towards developing a decision-making and planning tool to assess the influence impacts such as LU change and climate change on these complex systems. Comprising a series of sequential steps, a Generalized Linear Model based, competing model Multi Model Inference (MMI) approach was used for parameter estimation to identify principal land use types (distal factors) driving change in biological and physicochemical support elements (proximal factors) in monitored water bodies. The framework integrated MMI constants and coefficients of selected LU categories in the StDM simulations and spatial projections to simulate the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic waterbodies in the test area under 2 scenarios of (1) LU intensification and (2) LU extensification. A total of 100 simulations were run for a 50 year period for each scenario. Spatially dynamic projections of WFD metrics were obtained, taking into account the occurrence of stochastic wildfire events which typically occur in the study region and are exacerbated by LU change. A marked projected decline to “Moderate” ecological status for most waterbodies was detected under intensification but little change under extensification; only a few waterbodies fell to “moderate” status. The latter scenario describes the actual regional socio-economic situation of agricultural abandonment due to rural poverty, partly explaining the projected lack of change in ecological status. Based on the WFD “one out all out” criterion, projected downward shifts in ecological status were due to physicochemical support elements, namely increased

  16. A stochastic dynamic model to assess land use change scenarios on the ecological status of fluvial water bodies under the Water Framework Directive

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, Samantha Jane; Cabral, João Alexandre; Bastos, Rita; Cortes, Rui; Vicente, Joana; Eitelberg, David; Yu, Huirong

    2016-01-01

    This method development paper outlines an integrative stochastic dynamic methodology (StDM) framework to anticipate land use (LU) change effects on the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic surface waters under the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Tested in the Alto Minho River Basin District in North West Portugal, the model is an innovative step towards developing a decision-making and planning tool to assess the influence impacts such as LU change and climate change on these complex systems. Comprising a series of sequential steps, a Generalized Linear Model based, competing model Multi Model Inference (MMI) approach was used for parameter estimation to identify principal land use types (distal factors) driving change in biological and physicochemical support elements (proximal factors) in monitored water bodies. The framework integrated MMI constants and coefficients of selected LU categories in the StDM simulations and spatial projections to simulate the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic waterbodies in the test area under 2 scenarios of (1) LU intensification and (2) LU extensification. A total of 100 simulations were run for a 50 year period for each scenario. Spatially dynamic projections of WFD metrics were obtained, taking into account the occurrence of stochastic wildfire events which typically occur in the study region and are exacerbated by LU change. A marked projected decline to “Moderate” ecological status for most waterbodies was detected under intensification but little change under extensification; only a few waterbodies fell to “moderate” status. The latter scenario describes the actual regional socio-economic situation of agricultural abandonment due to rural poverty, partly explaining the projected lack of change in ecological status. Based on the WFD “one out all out” criterion, projected downward shifts in ecological status were due to physicochemical support elements, namely increased

  17. A Multi-Sector Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change at the Energy-Water-Land Nexus in the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFarland, J.; Sarofim, M. C.; Martinich, J.

    2017-12-01

    Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns due to climate change are projected to alter many sectors of the US economy. A growing body of research has examined these effects in the energy, water, and agricultural sectors. Rising summer temperatures increase the demand for electricity. Changing precipitation patterns effect the availability of water for hydropower generation, thermo-electric cooling, irrigation, and municipal and industrial consumption. A combination of changes to temperature and precipitation alter crop yields and cost-effective farming practices. Although a significant body of research exists on analyzing impacts to individual sectors, fewer studies examine the effects using a common set of assumptions (e.g., climatic and socio-economic) within a coupled modeling framework. The present analysis uses a multi-sector, multi-model framework with common input assumptions to assess the projected effects of climate change on energy, water, and land-use in the United States. The analysis assesses the climate impacts for across 5 global circulation models for representative concentration pathways (RCP) of 8.5 and 4.5 W/m2. The energy sector models - Pacific Northwest National Lab's Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) - show the effects of rising temperature on energy and electricity demand. Electricity supply in ReEDS is also affected by the availability of water for hydropower and thermo-electric cooling. Water availability is calculated from the GCM's precipitation using the US Basins model. The effects on agriculture are estimated using both a process-based crop model (EPIC) and an agricultural economic model (FASOM-GHG), which adjusts water supply curves based on information from US Basins. The sectoral models show higher economic costs of climate change under RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5 averaged across the country and across GCM's.

  18. Future Climate Change Impact Assessment of River Flows at Two Watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M. L.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

    2016-12-01

    Impacts of climate change on the river flows under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungun watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate model and a physically-based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations. Coarse resolution GCMs' future projections covering a wide range of emission scenarios were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over the study area. Hydrologic simulations of the two selected watersheds were carried out at hillslope-scale and at hourly increments.

  19. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Antle, John

    2015-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  20. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Antle, J. M.; Elliott, J. W.

    2015-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIP's community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPs/SSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate change's impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIP's 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  1. Groundwater Engineering in an Environmentally Sensitive Urban Area: Assessment, Landuse Change/Infrastructure Impacts and Mitigation Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yohannes Yihdego

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available A rise in the shallow unconfined groundwater at a site in Australia is causing water logging of the underground facility in the affected area. Realizing this problem, a study was conducted to identify the source of water that is causing the rise and to develop an implementation and operation plan of the mitigation (dewatering system. Modelling was undertaken using MODFLOW-SURFACT code, within the framework of Visual MODFLOW, to assess the spatial and temporal groundwater level at the site. The study undertaken incorporates compilation and assessment of available data, including a list of factual information reviewed, development of a conceptual groundwater model for the site and modelling of the pre and post development conditions. The outcomes of the assessment indicate water level rises due to the construction of the embankment are likely less than 0.12 m and changes in land, such as affected area burial, may change aquifer characteristics more significantly than the embankment. It is concluded that the elevated groundwater levels in the affected area are most likely a result of above average rainfall since 2007 and long term cumulative land use changes. The embankment construction is just one of many land use changes that have occurred both within and surrounding the affected area and likely only a minor contributor to the elevated water levels. Greater contribution may be attributed to re-direction of the natural flow paths the railway culvert weir reducing the overland flow gradient and ongoing changes (burial within the affected area and including the embankment. The model findings gives answers on what factors may be/are causing/contributing to, the higher than usual groundwater levels in the study area. A combination of drainage and/or pumping (dewatering system is suggested as a solution to overcome the problem of rising groundwater levels at the site. Further, the model output can aid in assessing mitigation options, including

  2. Organizational readiness for implementing change: a psychometric assessment of a new measure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shea, Christopher M; Jacobs, Sara R; Esserman, Denise A; Bruce, Kerry; Weiner, Bryan J

    2014-01-10

    Organizational readiness for change in healthcare settings is an important factor in successful implementation of new policies, programs, and practices. However, research on the topic is hindered by the absence of a brief, reliable, and valid measure. Until such a measure is developed, we cannot advance scientific knowledge about readiness or provide evidence-based guidance to organizational leaders about how to increase readiness. This article presents results of a psychometric assessment of a new measure called Organizational Readiness for Implementing Change (ORIC), which we developed based on Weiner's theory of organizational readiness for change. We conducted four studies to assess the psychometric properties of ORIC. In study one, we assessed the content adequacy of the new measure using quantitative methods. In study two, we examined the measure's factor structure and reliability in a laboratory simulation. In study three, we assessed the reliability and validity of an organization-level measure of readiness based on aggregated individual-level data from study two. In study four, we conducted a small field study utilizing the same analytic methods as in study three. Content adequacy assessment indicated that the items developed to measure change commitment and change efficacy reflected the theoretical content of these two facets of organizational readiness and distinguished the facets from hypothesized determinants of readiness. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis in the lab and field studies revealed two correlated factors, as expected, with good model fit and high item loadings. Reliability analysis in the lab and field studies showed high inter-item consistency for the resulting individual-level scales for change commitment and change efficacy. Inter-rater reliability and inter-rater agreement statistics supported the aggregation of individual level readiness perceptions to the organizational level of analysis. This article provides evidence in

  3. Assessments of regional climate change and its impacts in Northern Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omstedt, Anders; von Storch, Hans; Reckermann, Marcus; Quante, Markus

    2015-04-01

    Regional climate change assessments are urgently needed to complement the big picture with regional results and scenarios of higher resolution and with relevance for local decision makers and stakeholders. A new type of assessment report originated in the original BACC report of 2008 (BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea region) which has served as role model for other assessments published or in preparation. It represents an approach to assessing and making available current knowledge on regional climate change and its regional impacts on the physical, biogeochemical and biological environment (ecosystems, socio-economic sphere). Reports of this type which are available or underway are the original BACC book (2008), the second BACC book (2015), the climate report for the greater Hamburg area (2011), and the NOSCCA report (North Sea Climate Change Assessment) which is expected to be published in 2016. The assessments are produced by teams of scientists from the region, led by lead authors who recruit experts from relevant topics to contribute. The process is not externally funded and completely based on published scientific evidence, and not biased by political or economic interest groups. The BACC-type reports aim to bring together consolidated knowledge that has broad consensus in the scientific community, but also acknowledging issues for which contradicting opinions are found in the literature, so that no consensus can be reached ("consensus on dissensus"). An international steering committee is responsible for overlooking the process, and all manuscripts are anonymously peer-reviewed by independent international experts. An outstanding outreach aspect of these reports is the close collaboration with regional stakeholders (for the BACC reports: HELCOM, the intergovernmental Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission and the major regional science-policy interface in the Baltic Sea region; for the Hamburg climate report: the Hamburg city

  4. A novel trauma leadership model reflective of changing times.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DʼHuyvetter, Cecile; Cogbill, Thomas H

    2014-01-01

    As a result of generational changes in the health care workforce, we sought to evaluate our current Trauma Medical Director Leadership model. We assessed the responsibilities, accountability, time requirements, cost, and provider satisfaction with the current leadership model. Three new providers who had recently completed fellowship training were hired, each with unique professional desires, skill sets, and experience. Our goal was to establish a comprehensive, cost-effective, accountable leadership model that enabled provider satisfaction and equalized leadership responsibilities. A 3-pronged team model was established with a Medical Director title and responsibilities rotating per the American College of Surgeons verification cycle to develop leadership skills and lessen hierarchical differences.

  5. To assess and control global change in agriculture through ecosystem models integrated into geographic information systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ponti, L.; Iannetta, M.; Gutierrez, A.P.

    2015-01-01

    The transfer of ENEA PBDM (physiologically based demographic models) GIS technology, represents an opportunity to address global change in agriculture on an ecological basis in a local context, be able to provide European governmental agencies the necessary scientific basis for developing effective policies for adaptation to global change, including climate change [it

  6. An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

    2016-11-11

    Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

  7. Assessing vulnerability of giant pandas to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jia; Liu, Fang; Xue, Yadong; Zhang, Yu; Li, Diqiang

    2017-06-01

    Climate change might pose an additional threat to the already vulnerable giant panda ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca ). Effective conservation efforts require projections of vulnerability of the giant panda in facing climate change and proactive strategies to reduce emerging climate-related threats. We used the maximum entropy model to assess the vulnerability of giant panda to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China. The results of modeling included the following findings: (1) the area of suitable habitat for giant pandas was projected to decrease by 281 km 2 from climate change by the 2050s; (2) the mean elevation of suitable habitat of giant panda was predicted to shift 30 m higher due to climate change over this period; (3) the network of nature reserves protect 61.73% of current suitable habitat for the species, and 59.23% of future suitable habitat; (4) current suitable habitat mainly located in Chenggu, Taibai, and Yangxian counties (with a total area of 987 km 2 ) was predicted to be vulnerable. Assessing the vulnerability of giant panda provided adaptive strategies for conservation programs and national park construction. We proposed adaptation strategies to ameliorate the predicted impacts of climate change on giant panda, including establishing and adjusting reserves, establishing habitat corridors, improving adaptive capacity to climate change, and strengthening monitoring of giant panda.

  8. Opportunities and challenges in assessing climate change impacts on wind energy-a critical comparison of wind speed projections in California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmussen, D J; Holloway, T; Nemet, G F

    2011-01-01

    Future climate change is expected to alter the spatial and temporal distribution of surface wind speeds (SWS), with associated impacts on electricity generation from wind energy. However, the predictions for the direction and magnitude of these changes hinge critically on the assessment methods used. Many climate change impact analyses, including those focused on wind energy, use individual climate models and/or statistical downscaling methods rooted in historical observations. Such studies may individually suggest an unrealistically high level of scientific certainty due to the absence of competing projections (over the same region, time period, etc). A new public data archive, the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), allows for a more comprehensive perspective on regional climate change impacts, here applied to three wind farm sites in California. We employ NARCCAP regional climate model data to estimate changes in SWS expected to occur in the mid-21st century at three wind farm regions: Altamont Pass, San Gorgonio Pass, and Tehachapi Pass. We examined trends in SWS magnitude and frequency using three different global/regional model pairs, focused on model evaluation, seasonal cycle, and long-term trends. Our results, while specific to California, highlight the opportunities and limitations in NARCCAP and other publicly available meteorological data sets for energy analysis, and the importance of using multiple models for climate change impact assessment. Although spatial patterns in current wind conditions agree fairly well among models and with NARR (North American Regional Reanalysis) data, results vary widely at our three sites of interest. This poor performance and model disagreement may be explained by complex topography, limited model resolution, and differences in model physics. Spatial trends and site-specific estimates of annual average changes (1980-2000 versus 2051-71) also differed widely across models. All models

  9. Measures for assessing practice change in medical practitioners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakkennes, Sharon; Green, Sally

    2006-12-06

    There are increasing numbers of randomised trials and systematic reviews examining the efficacy of interventions designed to bring about a change in clinical practice. The findings of this research are being used to guide strategies to increase the uptake of evidence into clinical practice. Knowledge of the outcomes measured by these trials is vital not only for the interpretation and application of the work done to date, but also to inform future research in this expanding area of endeavour and to assist in collation of results in systematic reviews and meta-analyses. The objective of this review was to identify methods used to measure change in the clinical practices of health professionals following an intervention aimed at increasing the uptake of evidence into practice. All published trials included in a recent, comprehensive Health Technology Assessment of interventions to implement clinical practice guidelines and change clinical practice (n = 228) formed the sample for this study. Using a standardised data extraction form, one reviewer (SH), extracted the relevant information from the methods and/or results sections of the trials. Measures of a change of health practitioner behaviour were the most common, with 88.8% of trials using these as outcome measures. Measures that assessed change at a patient level, either actual measures of change or surrogate measures of change, were used in 28.8% and 36.7% of studies (respectively). Health practitioners' knowledge and attitudes were assessed in 22.8% of the studies and changes at an organisational level were assessed in 17.6%. Most trials of interventions aimed at changing clinical practice measured the effect of the intervention at the level of the practitioner, i.e. did the practitioner change what they do, or has their knowledge of and/or attitude toward that practice changed? Less than one-third of the trials measured, whether or not any change in practice, resulted in a change in the ultimate end-point of

  10. Measures for assessing practice change in medical practitioners

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Green Sally

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There are increasing numbers of randomised trials and systematic reviews examining the efficacy of interventions designed to bring about a change in clinical practice. The findings of this research are being used to guide strategies to increase the uptake of evidence into clinical practice. Knowledge of the outcomes measured by these trials is vital not only for the interpretation and application of the work done to date, but also to inform future research in this expanding area of endeavour and to assist in collation of results in systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Methods The objective of this review was to identify methods used to measure change in the clinical practices of health professionals following an intervention aimed at increasing the uptake of evidence into practice. All published trials included in a recent, comprehensive Health Technology Assessment of interventions to implement clinical practice guidelines and change clinical practice (n = 228 formed the sample for this study. Using a standardised data extraction form, one reviewer (SH, extracted the relevant information from the methods and/or results sections of the trials. Results Measures of a change of health practitioner behaviour were the most common, with 88.8% of trials using these as outcome measures. Measures that assessed change at a patient level, either actual measures of change or surrogate measures of change, were used in 28.8% and 36.7% of studies (respectively. Health practitioners' knowledge and attitudes were assessed in 22.8% of the studies and changes at an organisational level were assessed in 17.6%. Conclusion Most trials of interventions aimed at changing clinical practice measured the effect of the intervention at the level of the practitioner, i.e. did the practitioner change what they do, or has their knowledge of and/or attitude toward that practice changed? Less than one-third of the trials measured, whether or not any change

  11. Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: a case study in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, P.; Wolf, J.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Schaap, B.F.; Mandryk, M.; Verhagen, J.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2015-01-01

    Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on integrated assessment and farming systems analysis, and account for adaptation at different levels. With a case study for Flevoland, the Netherlands, we illustrate that (1) crop models cannot

  12. Climate change: a political assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Keefe, W. [Solutions Consulting (USA)

    2000-07-01

    The paper consists of the author's personal remarks on a political assessment of climate change policy in the United States. The author focuses on four major political forces; environmental organisations, the Clinton-Gore administration, the U.S. senate and the business community. The author considers that much of the climate change debate is scaremongering by the environmentalists with little scientific basis. There is a need for business to present its case better if it is to avoid economically damaging, but unjustified environmental regulations.

  13. Predicting the natural flow regime: Models for assessing hydrological alteration in streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlisle, D.M.; Falcone, J.; Wolock, D.M.; Meador, M.R.; Norris, R.H.

    2009-01-01

    Understanding the extent to which natural streamflow characteristics have been altered is an important consideration for ecological assessments of streams. Assessing hydrologic condition requires that we quantify the attributes of the flow regime that would be expected in the absence of anthropogenic modifications. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether selected streamflow characteristics could be predicted at regional and national scales using geospatial data. Long-term, gaged river basins distributed throughout the contiguous US that had streamflow characteristics representing least disturbed or near pristine conditions were identified. Thirteen metrics of the magnitude, frequency, duration, timing and rate of change of streamflow were calculated using a 20-50 year period of record for each site. We used random forests (RF), a robust statistical modelling approach, to develop models that predicted the value for each streamflow metric using natural watershed characteristics. We compared the performance (i.e. bias and precision) of national- and regional-scale predictive models to that of models based on landscape classifications, including major river basins, ecoregions and hydrologic landscape regions (HLR). For all hydrologic metrics, landscape stratification models produced estimates that were less biased and more precise than a null model that accounted for no natural variability. Predictive models at the national and regional scale performed equally well, and substantially improved predictions of all hydrologic metrics relative to landscape stratification models. Prediction error rates ranged from 15 to 40%, but were 25% for most metrics. We selected three gaged, non-reference sites to illustrate how predictive models could be used to assess hydrologic condition. These examples show how the models accurately estimate predisturbance conditions and are sensitive to changes in streamflow variability associated with long-term land-use change. We also

  14. Ecological models and pesticide risk assessment: current modeling practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmolke, Amelie; Thorbek, Pernille; Chapman, Peter; Grimm, Volker

    2010-04-01

    Ecological risk assessments of pesticides usually focus on risk at the level of individuals, and are carried out by comparing exposure and toxicological endpoints. However, in most cases the protection goal is populations rather than individuals. On the population level, effects of pesticides depend not only on exposure and toxicity, but also on factors such as life history characteristics, population structure, timing of application, presence of refuges in time and space, and landscape structure. Ecological models can integrate such factors and have the potential to become important tools for the prediction of population-level effects of exposure to pesticides, thus allowing extrapolations, for example, from laboratory to field. Indeed, a broad range of ecological models have been applied to chemical risk assessment in the scientific literature, but so far such models have only rarely been used to support regulatory risk assessments of pesticides. To better understand the reasons for this situation, the current modeling practice in this field was assessed in the present study. The scientific literature was searched for relevant models and assessed according to nine characteristics: model type, model complexity, toxicity measure, exposure pattern, other factors, taxonomic group, risk assessment endpoint, parameterization, and model evaluation. The present study found that, although most models were of a high scientific standard, many of them would need modification before they are suitable for regulatory risk assessments. The main shortcomings of currently available models in the context of regulatory pesticide risk assessments were identified. When ecological models are applied to regulatory risk assessments, we recommend reviewing these models according to the nine characteristics evaluated here. (c) 2010 SETAC.

  15. Uncertainty of a hydrological climate change impact assessment - Is it really all about climate uncertainty?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honti, Mark; Reichert, Peter; Scheidegger, Andreas; Stamm, Christian

    2013-04-01

    Climate change impact assessments have become more and more popular in hydrology since the middle 1980's with another boost after the publication of the IPCC AR4 report. During hundreds of impact studies a quasi-standard methodology emerged, which is mainly shaped by the growing public demand for predicting how water resources management or flood protection should change in the close future. The ``standard'' workflow considers future climate under a specific IPCC emission scenario simulated by global circulation models (GCMs), possibly downscaled by a regional climate model (RCM) and/or a stochastic weather generator. The output from the climate models is typically corrected for bias before feeding it into a calibrated hydrological model, which is run on the past and future meteorological data to analyse the impacts of climate change on the hydrological indicators of interest. The impact predictions are as uncertain as any forecast that tries to describe the behaviour of an extremely complex system decades into the future. Future climate predictions are uncertain due to the scenario uncertainty and the GCM model uncertainty that is obvious on finer resolution than continental scale. Like in any hierarchical model system, uncertainty propagates through the descendant components. Downscaling increases uncertainty with the deficiencies of RCMs and/or weather generators. Bias correction adds a strong deterministic shift to the input data. Finally the predictive uncertainty of the hydrological model ends the cascade that leads to the total uncertainty of the hydrological impact assessment. There is an emerging consensus between many studies on the relative importance of the different uncertainty sources. The prevailing perception is that GCM uncertainty dominates hydrological impact studies. There are only few studies, which found that the predictive uncertainty of hydrological models can be in the same range or even larger than climatic uncertainty. We carried out a

  16. Providing Context for Complexity: Using Infographics and Conceptual Models to Teach Global Change Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, J. R.; White, L. D.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding modern and historical global changes requires interdisciplinary knowledge of the physical and life sciences. The Understanding Global Change website from the UC Museum of Paleontology will use a focal infographic that unifies diverse content often taught in separate K-12 science units. This visualization tool provides scientists with a structure for presenting research within the broad context of global change, and supports educators with a framework for teaching and assessing student understanding of complex global change processes. This new approach to teaching the science of global change is currently being piloted and refined based on feedback from educators and scientists in anticipation of a 2016 website launch. Global change concepts are categorized within the infographic as causes of global change (e.g., burning of fossil fuels, volcanism), ongoing Earth system processes (e.g., ocean circulation, the greenhouse effect), and the changes scientists measure in Earth's physical and biological systems (e.g., temperature, extinctions/radiations). The infographic will appear on all website content pages and provides a template for the creation of flowcharts, which are conceptual models that allow teachers and students to visualize the interdependencies and feedbacks among processes in the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and geosphere. The development of this resource is timely given that the newly adopted Next Generation Science Standards emphasize cross-cutting concepts, including model building, and Earth system science. Flowchart activities will be available on the website to scaffold inquiry-based lessons, determine student preconceptions, and assess student content knowledge. The infographic has already served as a learning and evaluation tool during professional development workshops at UC Berkeley, Stanford University, and the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History. At these workshops, scientists and educators used the infographic

  17. Methodology for the assessment of the impacts of climate change on land degradation at multiple scales: Use of high resolution satellite imagery, modelling, and ground measurements for the assessment in Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Oumer

    In this study, a new multi-scalar methodology for assessing land degradation response to climate change is presented by analyzing 22 years of both climatic data and satellite observations, together with future projections from modelling, for Ethiopia. A comprehensive analysis of the impacts of climate change on land degradation was performed as evidenced from the integration of a host of land degradation indicators, namely: normalized difference vegetation Index (NDVI), net primary productivity (NPP), crop yield, biomass, length of growing period (LGP), rainfall use efficiency (RUE), energy use efficiency (EUE) and aridity index (AI). The results from the national level assessment indicate that over the period of 1984-2006, NPP decreased overall. Degrading areas occupy 30% of the country and suffer an average loss of NPP 10.3 kg C ha-1 y-1. The crop yield prediction results indicate a wide range of outcomes is to be expected for the country, due to the heterogeneity of the agro-climatic resources as well as of projected climate change. The results of the sub-national level assessment show that about 29% of the Awash watershed is degrading, and these degrading areas experience an average loss of NPP 4.6 kg C ha-1 y-1. Further, about 33.8% of the degrading area in the watershed is associated with bare land and 25% with agricultural land. Finally, since remotely sensed estimates are frequently used to assess land degradation at multiple scales, scale transfer methods are evaluated in this study to provide a tool to rank both upscaling and downscaling procedures.

  18. Climate Change Impact Assessment for Sustainable Water Quality Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Pin Tung

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of sustainable water quality management is to keep total pollutant discharges from exceeding the assimilation capacity of a water body. Climate change may influence streamflows, and further alter assimilation capacity and degrade river sustainability. The purposes of this study are to evaluate the effect of climate change on sustainable water quality management and design an early warning indicator to issue warnings on river sustainability. A systematic assessment procedure is proposed here, including a weather generation model, the streamflow component of GWLF, QUAL2E, and an optimization model. The Touchen creek in Taiwan is selected as the study area. Future climate scenarios derived from projections of four global climate models (GCMs and two pollutant discharge scenarios, as usual and proportional to population, are considered in this study. The results indicate that streamflows may very likely increase in humid seasons and decrease in arid seasons, respectively. The reduction of streamflow in arid seasons may further degrade water quality and assimilation capacity. In order to provide warnings to trigger necessary adaptation strategies, an early warning indicator is designed and its 30-year moving average is calculated. Finally, environmental monitoring systems and methods to prioritize adaptation strategies are discussed for further studies in the future.

  19. Multi-criteria objective based climate change impact assessment for multi-purpose multi-reservoir systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Ruben; Schütze, Niels

    2014-05-01

    Water resources systems with reservoirs are expected to be sensitive to climate change. Assessment studies that analyze the impact of climate change on the performance of reservoirs can be divided in two groups: (1) Studies that simulate the operation under projected inflows with the current set of operational rules. Due to non adapted operational rules the future performance of these reservoirs can be underestimated and the impact overestimated. (2) Studies that optimize the operational rules for best adaption of the system to the projected conditions before the assessment of the impact. The latter allows for estimating more realistically future performance and adaption strategies based on new operation rules are available if required. Multi-purpose reservoirs serve various, often conflicting functions. If all functions cannot be served simultaneously at a maximum level, an effective compromise between multiple objectives of the reservoir operation has to be provided. Yet under climate change the historically preferenced compromise may no longer be the most suitable compromise in the future. Therefore a multi-objective based climate change impact assessment approach for multi-purpose multi-reservoir systems is proposed in the study. Projected inflows are provided in a first step using a physically based rainfall-runoff model. In a second step, a time series model is applied to generate long-term inflow time series. Finally, the long-term inflow series are used as driving variables for a simulation-based multi-objective optimization of the reservoir system in order to derive optimal operation rules. As a result, the adapted Pareto-optimal set of diverse best compromise solutions can be presented to the decision maker in order to assist him in assessing climate change adaption measures with respect to the future performance of the multi-purpose reservoir system. The approach is tested on a multi-purpose multi-reservoir system in a mountainous catchment in Germany. A

  20. Using cognitive referents in making sense of teaching: A chemistry teacher's struggle to change assessment practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briscoe, Carol

    This qualitative case study focused on the role of cognitive referents in the sense-making process of one teacher as he attempted to change his classroom science assessment. The interpretations identify cultural myths, conceptual metonymys, as well as personally constructed beliefs as referents that constrained change. The teacher's cognitive struggle to make sense of assessment and his role as assessor are linked to conflicting referents he used in varying contexts including day-to-day assessment and summative assessment settings. The results of the study suggest that cognitive referents are important influences in driving how a teacher thinks about assessment and may constrain an individual teacher's implementation of innovative practices. Accordingly, identification of referents such as myths, their associated beliefs, and metonymic conceptual models that teachers use to make sense of their actions is an important first step in developing an understanding of constraints to educational change.

  1. Preparing for business model change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavalcante, Sergio Andre

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to investigate managers’ initiatives in the context of an emergent technology and their effect on the business models of firms. Building on four case studies of organizations interested in using an emergent technology for commercial purposes, this study applies...... a process-based framework of business model change. The main finding is that managers’ initiatives occur in the context of a “pre-stage” of potential business model change, which includes processes of experimenting and learning. The pre-stage finding gives a better understanding of when change initiatives...... affect a business model and when they do not, allowing managers to adopt a more proactive behaviour and guide their organizations towards effective business model change. The main contribution of this paper is to suggest the inclusion of the pre-stage idea in research and practice, since...

  2. The Second Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kao, Shih-Chieh [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Ashfaq, Moetasim [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Naz, Bibi S. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Uria Martinez, Rocio [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Rastogi, Deeksha [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Mei, Rui [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Jager, Yetta [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Samu, Nicole M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Sale, Michael J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2016-09-01

    Hydropower is a key contributor to the US renewable energy portfolio due to its established development history and the diverse benefits it provides to the electric power system. Ensuring the sustainable operation of existing hydropower facilities is of great importance to the US renewable energy portfolio and the reliability of electricity grid. As directed by Congress in Section 9505 of the SECURE Water Act (SWA) of 2009 (Public Law 111-11), the US Department of Energy (DOE), in consultation with the federal Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs) and other federal agencies, has prepared a second quinquennial report on examining the potential effects of climate change on water available for hydropower at federal facilities and on the marketing of power from these federal facilities. This Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Technical Memorandum, referred to as the 9505 assessment, describes the technical basis for the report to Congress that was called for in the SWA. To evaluate the potential climate change effects on 132 federal hydropower plants across the entire US, a spatially consistent assessment approach is designed to enable an interregional comparison. This assessment uses a series of models and methods with different spatial resolutions to gradually downscale the global climate change signals into watershed-scale hydrologic projections to support hydropower impact assessment. A variety of historic meteorological and hydrologic observations, hydropower facility characteristics, and geospatial datasets is collected to support model development, calibration, and verification. Among most of the federal hydropower plants throughout the US, the most important climate change effect on hydrology is likely to be the trend toward earlier snowmelt and change of runoff seasonality. Under the projections of increasing winter/spring runoff and decreasing summer/fall runoff, water resource managers may need to consider different water use allocations. With the

  3. Assessment of readiness to change in patients with osteoarthritis. Development and application of a new questionnaire

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heuts, PHTG; de Bie, RA; Dijkstra, A; Aretz, K; Vlaeyen, JW; Schouten, HJA; Hopman-Rock, M; van Weel, C; van Schayck, CP; van Schayk, O.C P

    Objective: To develop a self- report measure for assessment of the stage of change in patients with osteoarthritis, in order to identify patients who would benefit from a self- management programme. Methods: According to the ' stages of change' model a questionnaire was developed with three groups

  4. Extracting information from an ensemble of GCMs to reliably assess future global runoff change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sperna Weiland, F.C.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Weerts, A.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    Future runoff projections derived from different global climate models (GCMs) show large differences. Therefore, within this study the, information from multiple GCMs has been combined to better assess hydrological changes. For projections of precipitation and temperature the Reliability ensemble

  5. Climate change impacts on risks of groundwater pollution by herbicides: a regional scale assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steffens, Karin; Moeys, Julien; Lindström, Bodil; Kreuger, Jenny; Lewan, Elisabet; Jarvis, Nick

    2014-05-01

    Groundwater contributes nearly half of the Swedish drinking water supply, which therefore needs to be protected both under present and future climate conditions. Pesticides are sometimes found in Swedish groundwater in concentrations exceeding the EU-drinking water limit and thus constitute a threat. The aim of this study was to assess the present and future risks of groundwater pollution at the regional scale by currently approved herbicides. We identified representative combinations of major crop types and their specific herbicide usage (product, dose and application timing) based on long-term monitoring data from two agricultural catchments in the South-West of Sweden. All these combinations were simulated with the regional version of the pesticide fate model MACRO (called MACRO-SE) for the periods 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 for a major crop production region in South West Sweden. To represent the uncertainty in future climate data, we applied a five-member ensemble based on different climate model projections downscaled with the RCA3-model (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute). In addition to the direct impacts of changes in the climate, the risks of herbicide leaching in the future will also be affected by likely changes in weed pressure and land use and management practices (e.g. changes in crop rotations and application timings). To assess the relative importance of such factors we performed a preliminary sensitivity analysis which provided us with a hierarchical structure for constructing future herbicide use scenarios for the regional scale model runs. The regional scale analysis gave average concentrations of herbicides leaching to groundwater for a large number of combinations of soils, crops and compounds. The results showed that future scenarios for herbicide use (more autumn-sown crops, more frequent multiple applications on one crop, and a shift from grassland to arable crops such as maize) imply significantly greater risks of herbicide

  6. Using Natural Stable Calcium Isotopes to Rapidly Assess Changes in Bone Mineral Balance Using a Bed Rest Model to Induce Bone Loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, J. L. L.; Skulan, J. L.; Gordon, G. E.; Smith, Scott M.; Romaniello, S. J.; Anbar, A. D.

    2012-01-01

    Metabolic bone diseases like osteoporosis result from the disruption of normal bone mineral balance (BMB) resulting in bone loss. During spaceflight astronauts lose substantial bone. Bed rest provides an analog to simulate some of the effects of spaceflight; including bone and calcium loss and provides the opportunity to evaluate new methods to monitor BMB in healthy individuals undergoing environmentally induced-bone loss. Previous research showed that natural variations in the Ca isotope ratio occur because bone formation depletes soft tissue of light Ca isotopes while bone resorption releases that isotopically light Ca back into soft tissue (Skulan et al, 2007). Using a bed rest model, we demonstrate that the Ca isotope ratio of urine shifts in a direction consistent with bone loss after just 7 days of bed rest, long before detectable changes in bone mineral density (BMD) occur. The Ca isotope variations tracks changes observed in urinary N-teleopeptide, a bone resorption biomarker. Bone specific alkaline phosphatase, a bone formation biomarker, is unchanged. The established relationship between Ca isotopes and BMB can be used to quantitatively translate the changes in the Ca isotope ratio to changes in BMD using a simple mathematical model. This model predicts that subjects lost 0.25 0.07% ( SD) of their bone mass from day 7 to day 30 of bed rest. Given the rapid signal observed using Ca isotope measurements and the potential to quantitatively assess bone loss; this technique is well suited to study the short-term dynamics of bone metabolism.

  7. Uncertainty in hydrological change modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seaby, Lauren Paige

    applied at the grid scale. Flux and state hydrological outputs which integrate responses over time and space showed more sensitivity to precipitation mean spatial biases and less so on extremes. In the investigated catchments, the projected change of groundwater levels and basin discharge between current......Hydrological change modelling methodologies generally use climate models outputs to force hydrological simulations under changed conditions. There are nested sources of uncertainty throughout this methodology, including choice of climate model and subsequent bias correction methods. This Ph.......D. study evaluates the uncertainty of the impact of climate change in hydrological simulations given multiple climate models and bias correction methods of varying complexity. Three distribution based scaling methods (DBS) were developed and benchmarked against a more simplistic and commonly used delta...

  8. Eco-hydrologic model cascades: Simulating land use and climate change impacts on hydrology, hydraulics and habitats for fish and macroinvertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guse, Björn; Kail, Jochem; Radinger, Johannes; Schröder, Maria; Kiesel, Jens; Hering, Daniel; Wolter, Christian; Fohrer, Nicola

    2015-11-15

    Climate and land use changes affect the hydro- and biosphere at different spatial scales. These changes alter hydrological processes at the catchment scale, which impact hydrodynamics and habitat conditions for biota at the river reach scale. In order to investigate the impact of large-scale changes on biota, a cascade of models at different scales is required. Using scenario simulations, the impact of climate and land use change can be compared along the model cascade. Such a cascade of consecutively coupled models was applied in this study. Discharge and water quality are predicted with a hydrological model at the catchment scale. The hydraulic flow conditions are predicted by hydrodynamic models. The habitat suitability under these hydraulic and water quality conditions is assessed based on habitat models for fish and macroinvertebrates. This modelling cascade was applied to predict and compare the impacts of climate- and land use changes at different scales to finally assess their effects on fish and macroinvertebrates. Model simulations revealed that magnitude and direction of change differed along the modelling cascade. Whilst the hydrological model predicted a relevant decrease of discharge due to climate change, the hydraulic conditions changed less. Generally, the habitat suitability for fish decreased but this was strongly species-specific and suitability even increased for some species. In contrast to climate change, the effect of land use change on discharge was negligible. However, land use change had a stronger impact on the modelled nitrate concentrations affecting the abundances of macroinvertebrates. The scenario simulations for the two organism groups illustrated that direction and intensity of changes in habitat suitability are highly species-dependent. Thus, a joined model analysis of different organism groups combined with the results of hydrological and hydrodynamic models is recommended to assess the impact of climate and land use changes on

  9. Using the business excellence model to effectively manage change within clinical support services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freer, J; Jackson, S

    1998-01-01

    This article describes the journey of managing the change from seven separate health providing units to one overall team providing a range of services. To facilitate the change the Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award self-assessment model was used. The benefits and limitations of the model are described as are the activities undertaken to achieve a goal of delivering quality care within a customer driven rather than service driven focus. Finally the learning gained from the change is shared in an attempt to help others undertaking a similar journey.

  10. Changing practice to support self-management and recovery in mental illness: application of an implementation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Melanie; Jones, Phil; Heartfield, Marie; Allstrom, Mary; Hancock, Janette; Lawn, Sharon; Battersby, Malcolm

    2015-01-01

    Health services introducing practice changes need effective implementation methods. Within the setting of a community mental health service offering recovery-oriented psychosocial support for people with mental illness, we aimed to: (i) identify a well-founded implementation model; and (ii) assess its practical usefulness in introducing a new programme for recovery-oriented self-management support. We reviewed the literature to identify implementation models applicable to community mental health organisations, and that also had corresponding measurement tools. We used one of these models to inform organisational change strategies. The literature review showed few models with corresponding tools. The Promoting Action on Research Implementation in Health Services (PARIHS) model and the related Organisational Readiness to Change Assessment (ORCA) tool were used. The PARIHS proposes prerequisites for health service change and the ORCA measures the extent to which these prerequisites are present. Application of the ORCA at two time points during implementation of the new programme showed strategy-related gains for some prerequisites but not for others, reflecting observed implementation progress. Additional strategies to address target prerequisites could be drawn from the PARIHS model. The PARIHS model and ORCA tool have potential in designing and monitoring practice change strategies in community mental health organisations. Further practical use and testing of implementation models appears justified in overcoming barriers to change.

  11. Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, Erwan; Paltsev, Sergey; Sokolov, Andrei; Chen, Y-H Henry; Gao, Xiang; Ejaz, Qudsia; Couzo, Evan; Schlosser, C Adam; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Fant, Charles; Scott, Jeffery; Kicklighter, David; Morris, Jennifer; Jacoby, Henry; Prinn, Ronald; Haigh, Martin

    2018-02-13

    Efforts to estimate the physical and economic impacts of future climate change face substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches to impact analysis-which involve evaluation of a damage function or multi-model comparisons based on a limited number of standardized scenarios-we propose integrating a geospatially resolved physical representation of impacts into a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. Large internationally coordinated exercises cannot easily respond to new policy targets and the implementation of standard scenarios across models, institutions and research communities can yield inconsistent estimates. Here, we argue for a shift toward the use of a self-consistent integrated modeling framework to assess climate impacts, and discuss ways the integrated assessment modeling community can move in this direction. We then demonstrate the capabilities of such a modeling framework by conducting a multi-sectoral assessment of climate impacts under a range of consistent and integrated economic and climate scenarios that are responsive to new policies and business expectations.

  12. Application of a COSMO Mesoscale Model to Assess the Influence of Forest Cover Changes on Regional Weather Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olchev, A.; Rozinkina, I.; Kuzmina, E.; Nikitin, M.; Rivin, G. S.

    2017-12-01

    Modern changes in land use and forest cover have a significant influence on local, regional, and global weather and climate conditions. In this study, the mesoscale model COSMO is used to estimate the possible influence of forest cover change in the central part of the East European Plain on regional weather conditions. The "model region" of the study is surrounded by geographical coordinates 55° and 59°N and 28° and 37°E and situated in the central part of a large modeling domain (50° - 70° N and 15° 55° E), covering almost the entire East European Plain in Northern Eurasia. The forests cover about 50% of the area of the "model region". The modeling study includes 3 main numerical experiments. The first assumes total deforestation of the "model region" and replacement of forests by grasslands. The second is represented by afforestation of the "model region." In the third, weather conditions are simulated with present land use and vegetation structures of the "model region." Output of numerical experiments is at 13.2 km grid resolution, and the ERA-Interim global atmospheric reanalysis (with 6-h resolution in time and 0.75°×0.75° in space) is used to quantify initial and boundary conditions. Numerical experiments for the warm period of 2010 taken as an example show that deforestation and afforestation processes in the selected region can lead to significant changes in weather conditions. Deforestation processes in summer conditions can result in increased air temperature and wind speed, reduction of precipitation, lower clouds, and relative humidity. The afforestation process can result in opposite effects (decreased air temperature, increased precipitation, higher air humidity and fog frequency, and strengthened storm winds). Maximum meteorological changes under forest cover changes are projected for the summer months (July and August). It was also shown that changes of some meteorological characteristics (e.g., air temperature) is observed in the

  13. Consideration of environmental change in performance assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinedo, P.; Thorne, M.; Egan, M.; Calvez, M.; Kautsky, U.

    2005-01-01

    Depending on the particular circumstances in which a post-closure performance assessment of a radioactive waste repository is made, it may be appropriate to follow simple or more complex approaches in characterising the biosphere. Several different Example Reference Biospheres were explored in BIOMASS Theme 1 to address a range of issues that arise. Here, consideration is given to Example Reference Biospheres relevant to representing the implications of changes that may occur within the biosphere system during the period over which releases of radionuclides from a disposal facility might take place. Mechanisms of change considered include those extrinsic and intrinsic to the system of interest. An overall methodology for incorporating environmental change into assessments is proposed. This includes screening of primary mechanisms of change; identification of possible time sequences of change; development of a coherent description of the regional landscape response for each time sequence; integration of source term and geosphere-biosphere interface information; identification and description of one or more time series of assessment biospheres; and evaluation of the advantages and disadvantages of simulating the effects of sequences of biosphere systems and the transitions between them, or of defining a set of biosphere systems to be represented individually in a non-sequential analysis. The usefulness of the methodology is explored in two site-specific examples and one generic example

  14. Modeling and assessing the effects of land use changes on runoff generation with the CLUE-s and WetSpa models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mohammady, Majid; Moradi, Hamid Reza; Zeinivand, Hossein; Temme, A.J.A.M.; Yazdani, Mohammad Reza; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza

    2017-01-01

    Land use change is an important determinant of hydrological processes and is known to affect hydrological parameters such as runoff volume, flood frequency, base flow, and the partitioning into surface flow and subsurface flow. The main objective of this research was to assess the magnitude of

  15. Methods for assessment of climate variability and climate changes in different time-space scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lobanov, V.; Lobanova, H.

    2004-01-01

    Main problem of hydrology and design support for water projects connects with modern climate change and its impact on hydrological characteristics as observed as well as designed. There are three main stages of this problem: - how to extract a climate variability and climate change from complex hydrological records; - how to assess the contribution of climate change and its significance for the point and area; - how to use the detected climate change for computation of design hydrological characteristics. Design hydrological characteristic is the main generalized information, which is used for water management and design support. First step of a research is a choice of hydrological characteristic, which can be as a traditional one (annual runoff for assessment of water resources, maxima, minima runoff, etc) as well as a new one, which characterizes an intra-annual function or intra-annual runoff distribution. For this aim a linear model has been developed which has two coefficients connected with an amplitude and level (initial conditions) of seasonal function and one parameter, which characterizes an intensity of synoptic and macro-synoptic fluctuations inside a year. Effective statistical methods have been developed for a separation of climate variability and climate change and extraction of homogeneous components of three time scales from observed long-term time series: intra annual, decadal and centural. The first two are connected with climate variability and the last (centural) with climate change. Efficiency of new methods of decomposition and smoothing has been estimated by stochastic modeling and well as on the synthetic examples. For an assessment of contribution and statistical significance of modern climate change components statistical criteria and methods have been used. Next step has been connected with a generalization of the results of detected climate changes over the area and spatial modeling. For determination of homogeneous region with the same

  16. The National Danish Water Resources Model - using an integrated groundwater - surface water model for decision support and WFD implementation in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Hinsby, Klaus; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Troldborg, Lars

    2014-05-01

    Integrated and sustainable water resources management and development of river basin management plans according to the Water Framework Directive is getting increasingly complex especially when taking projected climate change into account. Furthermore, uncertainty in future developments and incomplete knowledge of the physical system introduces a high degree of uncertainty in the decision making process. Knowledge based decision making is therefore vital for formulation of robust management plans and to allow assessment of the inherent uncertainties. The Department of Hydrology at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland started in 1996 to develop a mechanistically, transient and spatially distributed groundwater-surface water model - the DK-model - for the assessment of groundwater quantitative status accounting for interactions with surface water and anthropogenic changes, such as extraction strategies and land use, as well as climate change. The model has been subject to continuous update building on hydrogeological knowledge established by the regional water authorities and other national research institutes. With the on-going improvement of the DK-model it is now increasingly applied both by research projects and for decision support e.g. in implementation of the Water Framework Directive or to support other decisions related to protection of water resources (quantitative and chemical status), ecosystems and the built environment. At present, the DK-model constitutes the backbone of a strategic modelling project funded by the Danish Environmental Protection Agency, with the aim of developing a modelling complex that will provide the foundation of the implementation of the Water Framework Directive. Since 2003 the DK-model has been used in more than 25 scientific papers and even more public reports. In the poster and the related review paper we describe the most important applications in both science and policy, where the DK-model has been used either

  17. Modelling bark beetle disturbances in a large scale forest scenario model to assess climate change impacts and evaluate adaptive management strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seidl, R.; Schelhaas, M.J.; Lindner, M.; Lexer, M.J.

    2009-01-01

    To study potential consequences of climate-induced changes in the biotic disturbance regime at regional to national scale we integrated a model of Ips typographus (L. Scol. Col.) damages into the large-scale forest scenario model EFISCEN. A two-stage multivariate statistical meta-model was used to

  18. Using the CLM Crop Model to assess the impacts of changes in Climate, Atmospheric CO2, Irrigation, Fertilizer and Geographic Distribution on Historical and Future Crop Yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, P.

    2015-12-01

    Since the start of the green revolution global crop yields have increased linearly for most major cereal crops, so that present day global values are around twice those of the 1960s. The increase in crop yields have allowed for large increases in global agricultural production without correspondingly large increases in cropping area. Future projections under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) framework and other assessments result in increases of global crop production of greater than 100% by the year 2050. In order to meet this increased agricultural demand within the available arable land, future production gains need to be understood in terms of the yield changes due to changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, and adaptive management such as irrigation and fertilizer application. In addition to the changes in crop yield, future agricultural demand will need to be met through increasing cropping areas into what are currently marginal lands at the cost of existing forests and other natural ecosystems. In this study we assess the utility of the crop model within the Community Land Model (CLM Crop) to provide both historical and future guidance on changes in crop yields under a range of global idealized crop modeling experiments. The idealized experiments follow the experimental design of the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) in which CLM Crop is a participating model. The idealized experiments consist of global crop simulations for Cotton, Maize, Rice, Soy, Sugarcane, and Wheat under various climate, atmospheric CO2 levels, irrigation prescription, and nitrogen fertilizer application. The time periods simulated for the experiments are for the Historical period (1901 - 2005), and for the two Representative Concentration Pathways of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (2006 - 2100). Each crop is simulated on all land grid cells globally for each time period with atmospheric forcing that is a combination of: 1. transient climate and CO2; 2. transient climate

  19. Climate change adaptation impact cost assessment in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    This document reports the works of an inter-departmental group and of sector-based and transverse groups which aimed at assessing the impacts of climate change. After a first contribution about the assessment methodology, the works of sector-based groups and transverse groups are reported. These groups are dealing with agriculture, forest, infrastructures and built environment, tourism, energy, health, water, natural risks (and insurance and adaptation to climatic change in metropolitan France), biodiversity and land. For each of them, challenges, assessment approaches, first results and perspectives are discussed

  20. Fish habitat simulation models and integrated assessment tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harby, A.; Alfredsen, K.

    1999-01-01

    Because of human development water use increases in importance, and this worldwide trend is leading to an increasing number of user conflicts with a strong need for assessment tools to measure the impacts both on the ecosystem and the different users and user groups. The quantitative tools must allow a comparison of alternatives, different user groups, etc., and the tools must be integrated while impact assessments includes different disciplines. Fish species, especially young ones, are indicators of the environmental state of a riverine system and monitoring them is a way to follow environmental changes. The direct and indirect impacts on the ecosystem itself are measured, and impacts on user groups is not included. Fish habitat simulation models are concentrated on, and methods and examples are considered from Norway. Some ideas on integrated modelling tools for impact assessment studies are included. One dimensional hydraulic models are rapidly calibrated and do not require any expert knowledge in hydraulics. Two and three dimensional models require a bit more skilled users, especially if the topography is very heterogeneous. The advantages of using two and three dimensional models include: they do not need any calibration, just validation; they are predictive; and they can be more cost effective than traditional habitat hydraulic models when combined with modern data acquisition systems and tailored in a multi-disciplinary study. Suitable modelling model choice should be based on available data and possible data acquisition, available manpower, computer, and software resources, and needed output and accuracy in the output. 58 refs

  1. Changing the culture of assessment: the dominance of the summative assessment paradigm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harrison, C.J.; Konings, K.D.; Schuwirth, L.W.; Wass, V.; Vleuten, C.P.M. van der

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Despite growing evidence of the benefits of including assessment for learning strategies within programmes of assessment, practical implementation of these approaches is often problematical. Organisational culture change is often hindered by personal and collective beliefs which

  2. Integrating land use and climate change scenarios and models into assessment of forested watershed services in Southern Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trisurat, Yongyut; Eawpanich, Piyathip; Kalliola, Risto

    2016-05-01

    The Thadee watershed, covering 112km(2), is the main source of water for agriculture and household consumption in the Nakhon Srithammarat Province in Southern Thailand. As the natural forests upstream have been largely degraded and transformed to fruit tree and rubber plantations, problems with landslides and flooding have resulted. This research attempts to predict how further land-use/land-cover changes during 2009-2020 and conceivable changes in rainfall may influence the future levels of water yield and sediment load in the Thadee River. Three different land use scenarios (trend, development and conservation) were defined in collaboration with the local stakeholders, and three different rainfall scenarios (average rainfall, climate change and extreme wet) were determined on the basis of literature sources. Spatially explicit empirical modelling was employed to allocate future land demands and to assess the contributions of land use and rainfall changes, considering both their separate and combined effects. The results suggest that substantial land use changes may occur from a large expansion of rubber plantations in the upper sub-watersheds, especially under the development land use scenario. The reduction of the current annual rainfall by approximately 30% would decrease the predicted water yields by 38% from 2009. According to the extreme rainfall scenario (an increase of 36% with respect to current rainfall), an amplification of 50% of the current runoff could result. Sensitivity analyses showed that the predicted soil loss is more responsive to changes in rainfall than to the compared land use scenarios alone. However, very high sediment load and runoff levels were predicted on the basis of combined intensified land use and extreme rainfall scenarios. Three conservation activities-protection, reforestation and a mixed-cropping system-are proposed to maintain the functional watershed services of the Thadee watershed region. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc

  3. Longitudinal as well as age-matched assessments of bone changes in the mature ovariectomized rat model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leitner, M.M.; Tami, A.E.; Montavon, P.M.; Ito, K.

    2009-01-01

    In the past, bone loss in the ovariectomized (OVX) osteoporotic rat model has been monitored using in vitro micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) to assess bone structure (bone volume/total volume, BV/TV). The purpose of this study was to assess the importance of baseline control and sham groups in

  4. Modeling of Communication in a Computational Situation Assessment Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Hyun Chul; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2009-01-01

    Operators in nuclear power plants have to acquire information from human system interfaces (HSIs) and the environment in order to create, update, and confirm their understanding of a plant state, or situation awareness, because failures of situation assessment may result in wrong decisions for process control and finally errors of commission in nuclear power plants. Quantitative or prescriptive models to predict operator's situation assessment in a situation, the results of situation assessment, provide many benefits such as HSI design solutions, human performance data, and human reliability. Unfortunately, a few computational situation assessment models for NPP operators have been proposed and those insufficiently embed human cognitive characteristics. Thus we proposed a new computational situation assessment model of nuclear power plant operators. The proposed model incorporating significant cognitive factors uses a Bayesian belief network (BBN) as model architecture. It is believed that communication between nuclear power plant operators affects operators' situation assessment and its result, situation awareness. We tried to verify that the proposed model represent the effects of communication on situation assessment. As the result, the proposed model succeeded in representing the operators' behavior and this paper shows the details

  5. Assessing Agricultural Risks of Climate Change in the 21st Century in a Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Mueller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay

    2014-01-01

    Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

  6. Regional Climate Models as a Tool for Assessing Changes in the Laurentian Great Lakes Net Basin Supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Music, B.; Mailhot, E.; Nadeau, D.; Irambona, C.; Frigon, A.

    2017-12-01

    Over the last decades, there has been growing concern about the effects of climate change on the Great Lakes water supply. Most of the modelling studies focusing on the Laurentian Great Lakes do not allow two-way exchanges of water and energy between the atmosphere and the underlying surface, and therefore do not account for important feedback mechanisms. Moreover, energy budget constraint at the land surface is not usually taken into account. To address this issue, several recent climate change studies used high resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for evaluating changes in the hydrological regime of the Great Lakes. As RCMs operate on the concept of water and energy conservation, an internal consistency of the simulated energy and water budget components is assured. In this study we explore several recently generated Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations to investigate the Great Lakes' Net Basin Supply (NBS) in a changing climate. These include simulations of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) supplemented by simulations from several others RCMs participating to the North American CORDEX project (CORDEX-NA). The analysis focuses on the NBS extreme values under nonstationary conditions. The results are expected to provide useful information to the industries in the Great Lakes that all need to include accurate climate change information in their long-term strategy plans to better anticipate impacts of low and/or high water levels.

  7. Assess and control global change in agriculture through ecosystem models integrated in geographic information systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ponti, Luigi; Gutierrez, Andrew Paul; Iannetta, Massimo

    2015-01-01

    ENEA has created, in collaboration with the University of California at Berkeley, the Global Change Biology project that, for the first time, has made available in Europe a technology that can be It used to interpret and effectively manage change Global agriculture. The aim of the project was to provide tools to summarize, manage and analyze data Ecological on the effects of global change in agricultural systems, using traditional Mediterranean crops (Eg. Vineyards and olive) as model systems (http: // cordis.europa.eu/project/rcn/89728_en.html). [it

  8. Combining catchment and instream modelling to assess physical habitat quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Martin

    Study objectives After the implementation of EU's Water Framework Directive (WFD) in Denmark ecological impacts from groundwater exploitation on surface waters has to receive additional consideration. Small streams in particular are susceptible to changes in run-off but have only recieved little...... attention in past studies of run-off impact on the quality of stream physical habitats. This study combined catchment and instream models with instream habitat observations to assess the ecological impacts from groundwater exploitation on a small stream. The main objectives of this study was; • to assess...... which factors are controlling the run-off conditions in stream Ledreborg and to what degree • to assess the run-off reference condition of stream Ledreborg where intensive groundwater abstraction has taken place in 67 years using a simple rainfall-run-off-model • to assess how stream run-off affect...

  9. Assessing susceptibility to erosion related to land cover changes induced by mining in Anori, Antioquia, Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ceballos Espinosa, Darney de J; Toro R, Luis Jairo

    2012-01-01

    A model for assessing the susceptibility to erosion in the municipality of Anori, through the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), was implemented, allowing the spatial assessment of different variables of a model based on the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). Model takes into account possible changes in vegetation cover because of future development of mining projects. The model includes the major hydrological variables such as rain and runoff, as well as slopes, geology and vegetation cover. Anori is located in the north-northeast of Antioquia and presents a valuable mineral potential for the region which has increased thanks to the high prices of gold in the world and the so called mining locomotive driven by the national government. According to the results of this model, the vegetation cover change caused by open pit mining projects directly increases the susceptibility to erosion in Anori. Consequently, environmental management in the erosion susceptibility model is based on the handling of vegetation cover, through the implementation of prevention, mitigation and compensation mechanisms, to avoid increased erosion.

  10. An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Development and Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    that combines a model for the socio-economic development of cities (DANCE4WATER) with an urban flood model. The urban flood model is a 1D-2D spatially distributed hydrologic and hydraulic model that, for a given urban layout, simulates flow in the sewer system and the surface flow in the catchment (MIKE FLOOD......). The socio-economic model computes urban layouts that are transferred to the hydraulic model in the form of changes of impervious area and potential flow paths on the surface. Estimates of flood prone areas, as well as the expected annual damage due to flooding, are returned to the socio-economic model...... as an input for further refinement of the scenarios for the urban development. Our results in an Australian case study suggest that urban development is a major driver for flood risk and vice versa that flood risk can be significantly reduced if it is accounted for in the development of the cities...

  11. Learning by Doing vs Learning by Researching in a Model of Climate Change Policy Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castelnuovo, E.; Galeotti, M.; Vergalli, S.; Gambarelli, G.

    2004-01-01

    Many predictions and conclusions in the climate change literature have been made and drawn on the basis of theoretical analyses and quantitative models that assume exogenous technological change. One is naturally led to wonder whether those conclusions and policy prescriptions hold in the more realistic case of endogenously evolving technologies. In previous work we took a popular integrated assessment model and modified it so as to allow for an explicit role of the stock of knowledge which accumulates through R and D investment. In our formulation knowledge affects both the output production technology and the emission-output ratio. In this paper we make further progress in our efforts aimed to model the process of technological change. In keeping with recent theories of endogenous growth, we specify two ways in which knowledge accumulates: via a deliberate, optimally selected R and D decision or via experience, giving rise to Learning by Doing. As an illustration, we simulate the model under the two versions of endogenous technical change and look at the dynamics of a selected number of relevant variables, including growth rates of GDP and physical capital, as well as total emissions and rate of domestic abatement. Keywords: Climate Policy, Environmental Modeling, Integrated Assessment, Technical Change

  12. Assessment of the phenology impact on SVAT modelling through a crop growth model over a Mediterranean crop site : Consequences on the water balance under climate change conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moulin, S.; Garrigues, S.; Olioso, A.; Ruget, F.; Desfonds, V.; Bertrand, N.; Lecharpentier, P.; Ripoche, D.; Launay, M.; Brisson, N.

    2012-04-01

    In the coming years, water resources and vegetation production of Mediterranean areas will be drastically affected by climate changes as well as intense and rapid changes in the land use. The impact of climate and land-use changes on water balance and vegetation production can be analysed and predicted through land surface models, provided that the uncertainties associated to these models and to the data used to run them are evaluated. Vegetation phenology is generally poorly taken into account in land surface models and may be a substantial source of uncertainties for global change scenario studies. In this paper, we discuss the improvement obtained in Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) modelling by taking into account the phenology using a crop growth model, focusing on the water budget, over a Mediterranean crop site. The STICS model (Brisson et al, 1998) is used to simulate crop processes (growth and development, taking into account water and nitrogen exchanges between the environment and the crop). STICS describes the vegetation phenology very accurately and was validated for many types of crop and various pedoclimatic conditions. The SVAT model being analyzed is the a-gs version (Calvet et al., 1998) of the ISBA model (Noilhan et al, 1989), which simulates the photosynthesis and calculates the plant biomass and the Leaf Area Index (LAI) using a simple growth model. In STICS, the phenology is driven by the sum of daily air temperatures, which is quite realistic, while in ISBA, the phenology is driven by the plant carbon assimilation. Measurements (vegetation characteristics, soil properties, agricultural practises, energy and water balance) performed in the lower Rhone valley experimental area (Avignon, France) are used as well as long series of climatic data (past records and future simulations). In a first step, by running STICS and ISBA for maize and wheat crops with long series of climatic data, including future scenarios of climate (CLIMATOR

  13. The Generalised Ecosystem Modelling Approach in Radiological Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klos, Richard

    2008-03-15

    An independent modelling capability is required by SSI in order to evaluate dose assessments carried out in Sweden by, amongst others, SKB. The main focus is the evaluation of the long-term radiological safety of radioactive waste repositories for both spent fuel and low-level radioactive waste. To meet the requirement for an independent modelling tool for use in biosphere dose assessments, SSI through its modelling team CLIMB commissioned the development of a new model in 2004, a project to produce an integrated model of radionuclides in the landscape. The generalised ecosystem modelling approach (GEMA) is the result. GEMA is a modular system of compartments representing the surface environment. It can be configured, through water and solid material fluxes, to represent local details in the range of ecosystem types found in the past, present and future Swedish landscapes. The approach is generic but fine tuning can be carried out using local details of the surface drainage system. The modular nature of the modelling approach means that GEMA modules can be linked to represent large scale surface drainage features over an extended domain in the landscape. System change can also be managed in GEMA, allowing a flexible and comprehensive model of the evolving landscape to be constructed. Environmental concentrations of radionuclides can be calculated and the GEMA dose pathway model provides a means of evaluating the radiological impact of radionuclide release to the surface environment. This document sets out the philosophy and details of GEMA and illustrates the functioning of the model with a range of examples featuring the recent CLIMB review of SKB's SR-Can assessment

  14. The Generalised Ecosystem Modelling Approach in Radiological Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klos, Richard

    2008-03-01

    An independent modelling capability is required by SSI in order to evaluate dose assessments carried out in Sweden by, amongst others, SKB. The main focus is the evaluation of the long-term radiological safety of radioactive waste repositories for both spent fuel and low-level radioactive waste. To meet the requirement for an independent modelling tool for use in biosphere dose assessments, SSI through its modelling team CLIMB commissioned the development of a new model in 2004, a project to produce an integrated model of radionuclides in the landscape. The generalised ecosystem modelling approach (GEMA) is the result. GEMA is a modular system of compartments representing the surface environment. It can be configured, through water and solid material fluxes, to represent local details in the range of ecosystem types found in the past, present and future Swedish landscapes. The approach is generic but fine tuning can be carried out using local details of the surface drainage system. The modular nature of the modelling approach means that GEMA modules can be linked to represent large scale surface drainage features over an extended domain in the landscape. System change can also be managed in GEMA, allowing a flexible and comprehensive model of the evolving landscape to be constructed. Environmental concentrations of radionuclides can be calculated and the GEMA dose pathway model provides a means of evaluating the radiological impact of radionuclide release to the surface environment. This document sets out the philosophy and details of GEMA and illustrates the functioning of the model with a range of examples featuring the recent CLIMB review of SKB's SR-Can assessment

  15. Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Chunyang; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Huang, Qingxu; Zhang, Qiaofeng; Zhang, Da

    2015-11-01

    Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Classifying multi-model wheat yield impact response surfaces showing sensitivity to temperature and precipitation change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Fronzek, S.; Pirttioja, N. K.; Carter, T. R.; Bindi, M.; Hoffmann, H.; Palosuo, T.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Tao, F.; Trnka, Miroslav; Acutis, M.; Asseng, S.; Baranowski, P.; Basso, B.; Bodin, P.; Buis, S.; Cammarano, D.; Deligios, P.; Destain, M. F.; Dumont, B.; Ewert, F.; Ferrise, R.; Francois, L.; Gaiser, T.; Hlavinka, Petr; Jacquemin, I.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Kollas, C.; Krzyszczak, J.; Lorite, I. J.; Minet, J.; Ines Minguez, M.; Montesino, M.; Moriondo, M.; Mueller, C.; Nendel, C.; Öztürk, I.; Perego, A.; Rodriguez, A.; Ruane, A. C.; Ruget, F.; Sanna, M.; Semenov, M. A.; Slawinski, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Supit, I.; Waha, K.; Wang, E.; Wu, L.; Zhao, Z.; Rötter, R.

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 159, jan (2018), s. 209-224 ISSN 0308-521X Institutional support: RVO:86652079 Keywords : climate - change * crop models * probabilistic assessment * simulating impacts * british catchments * uncertainty * europe * productivity * calibration * adaptation * Classification * Climate change * Crop model * Ensemble * Sensitivity analysis * Wheat Subject RIV: GC - Agronomy OBOR OECD: Agronomy, plant breeding and plant protection Impact factor: 2.571, year: 2016

  17. Predictive models for fish assemblages in eastern USA streams: implications for assessing biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meador, Michael R.; Carlisle, Daren M.

    2009-01-01

    Management and conservation of aquatic systems require the ability to assess biological conditions and identify changes in biodiversity. Predictive models for fish assemblages were constructed to assess biological condition and changes in biodiversity for streams sampled in the eastern United States as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Quality Assessment Program. Separate predictive models were developed for northern and southern regions. Reference sites were designated using land cover and local professional judgment. Taxonomic completeness was quantified based on the ratio of the number of observed native fish species expected to occur to the number of expected native fish species. Models for both regions accurately predicted fish species composition at reference sites with relatively high precision and low bias. In general, species that occurred less frequently than expected (decreasers) tended to prefer riffle areas and larger substrates, such as gravel and cobble, whereas increaser species (occurring more frequently than expected) tended to prefer pools, backwater areas, and vegetated and sand substrates. In the north, the percentage of species identified as increasers and the percentage identified as decreasers were equal, whereas in the south nearly two-thirds of the species examined were identified as decreasers. Predictive models of fish species can provide a standardized indicator for consistent assessments of biological condition at varying spatial scales and critical information for an improved understanding of fish species that are potentially at risk of loss with changing water quality conditions.

  18. GPCC - A weather generator-based statistical downscaling tool for site-specific assessment of climate change impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resolution of climate model outputs are too coarse to be used as direct inputs to impact models for assessing climate change impacts on agricultural production, water resources, and eco-system services at local or site-specific scales. Statistical downscaling approaches are usually used to bridge th...

  19. A strategy for assessing potential future changes in climate, hydrology, and vegetation in the Western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Robert Stephen; Hostetler, Steven W.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Anderson, Katherine H.

    1998-01-01

    Historical and geological data indicate that significant changes can occur in the Earth's climate on time scales ranging from years to millennia. In addition to natural climatic change, climatic changes may occur in the near future due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere that are the result of human activities. International research efforts using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM's) to assess potential climatic conditions under atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of twice the pre-industrial level (a '2 X CO2' atmosphere) conclude that climate would warm on a global basis. However, it is difficult to assess how the projected warmer climatic conditions would be distributed on a regional scale and what the effects of such warming would be on the landscape, especially for temperate mountainous regions such as the Western United States. In this report, we present a strategy to assess the regional sensitivity to global climatic change. The strategy makes use of a hierarchy of models ranging from an AGCM, to a regional climate model, to landscape-scale process models of hydrology and vegetation. A 2 X CO2 global climate simulation conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) GENESIS AGCM on a grid of approximately 4.5o of latitude by 7.5o of longitude was used to drive the NCAR regional climate model (RegCM) over the Western United States on a grid of 60 km by 60 km. The output from the RegCM is used directly (for hydrologic models) or interpolated onto a 15-km grid (for vegetation models) to quantify possible future environmental conditions on a spatial scale relevant to policy makers and land managers.

  20. Assessment of the Stakeholders’ Importance Using AHP Method – Modeling and Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danka Knezević

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Attention to stakeholders, which means that companies bear responsibility for the implications of their actions, is emerging as a critical strategic issue. Hence, meeting legitimate stakeholders’ requests would enhance the reputation of a company and increase its competitiveness on product markets. That is why an accurate identification of stakeholders and assessment of their importance is so significant for the companies. Through an integration of the earlier models of excellence, models for identification and classification of stakeholders, models for assessing the quality of a company and the AHP method, widely applicable in various fields, a new model for assessment of stakeholders’ significance is proposed in this paper. The model also provides an assessment of a company based on the degree of the importance and satisfaction of stakeholders. The results of this model could be useful for companies and their management when it comes to defining a proper business strategy, monitoring the system changes over time, creating a basis for comparison with other similar systems or with itself. A practical example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the model.

  1. A probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts on yield and nitrogen leaching from winter wheat in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Børgesen, Christen Duus; Olesen, Jørgen E

    2011-01-01

    Climate change will impact agricultural production both directly and indirectly, but uncertainties related to likely impacts constrain current political decision making on adaptation. This analysis focuses on a methodology for applying probabilistic climate change projections to assess modelled...... the importance of including soil information for regional studies of climate change impacts on cropping systems....

  2. Assessment of climate change effects on Canada's National Park system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suffling, Roger; Scott, Daniel

    2002-03-01

    To estimate the magnitude of climate change anticipated for Canada's 38 National Parks (NPs) and Park Reserves, seasonal temperature and precipitation scenarios were constructed for 2050 and 2090 using the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled model (CGCM1). For each park, we assessed impacts on physical systems, species, ecosystems and people. Important, widespread changes relate to marine and freshwater hydrology, glacial balance, waning permafrost, increased natural disturbance, shorter ice season, northern and upward altitudinal species and biome shifts, and changed visitation patterns. Other changes are regional (e.g., combined East coast subsidence and sea level rise increase coastal erosion and deposition, whereas, on the Pacific coast, tectonic uplift negates sea level rise). Further predictions concern individual parks (e.g., Unique fens of Bruce Peninsular NP will migrate lakewards with lowered water levels, but structural regulation of Lake Huron for navigation and power generation would destroy the fens). Knowledge gaps are the most important findings. For example: we could not form conclusions about glacial mass balance, or its effects on rivers and fjords. Likewise, for the East Coast Labrador Current we could neither estimate temperature and salinity effects of extra iceberg formation, nor the further effects on marine food chains, and breeding park seabirds. We recommend 1) Research on specific large knowledge gaps; 2) Climate change information exchange with protected area agencies in other northern countries; and 3) incorporating climate uncertainty into park plans and management. We discuss options for a new park management philosophy in the face of massive change and uncertainty.

  3. [Assessment of the validity and reliability of the processes of change scale based on the transtheoretical model of vegetable consumption behavior in Japanese male workers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kushida, Osamu; Murayama, Nobuko

    2012-12-01

    A core construct of the Transtheoretical model is that the processes and stages of change are strongly related to observable behavioral changes. We created the Processes of Change Scale of vegetable consumption behavior and examined the validity and reliability of this scale. In September 2009, a self-administered questionnaire was administered to male Japanese employees, aged 20-59 years, working at 20 worksites in Niigata City in Japan. The stages of change (precontempration, contemplation, preparation, action, and maintenance stage) were measured using 2 items that assessed participants' current implementation of the target behavior (eating 5 or more servings of vegetables per day) and their readiness to change their habits. The Processes of Change Scale of vegetable consumption behavior comprised 10 items assessing 5 cognitive processes (consciousness raising, emotional arousal, environmental reevaluation, self-reevaluation, and social liberation) and 5 behavioral processes (commitment, rewards, helping relationships, countering, and environment control). Each item was selected from an existing scale. Decisional balance (pros [2 items] and cons [2 items]), and self-efficacy (3 items) were also assessed, because these constructs were considered to be relevant to the processes of change. The internal consistency reliability of the scale was examined using Cronbach's alpha. Its construct validity was examined using a factor analysis of the processes of change, decisional balance, and self-efficacy variables, while its criterion-related validity was determined by assessing the association between the scale scores and the stages of change. The data of 527 (out of 600) participants (mean age, 41.1 years) were analyzed. Results indicated that the Processes of Change Scale had sufficient internal consistency reliability (Cronbach's alpha: cognitive processes=0.722, behavioral processes=0.803). The processes of change were divided into 2 factors: "consciousness raising

  4. Equality and CO2 emissions distribution in climate change integrated assessment modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cantore, Nicola; Padilla, Emilio

    2010-01-01

    The equity implications of alternative climate policy measures are an essential issue to be considered in the design of future international agreements to tackle global warming. This paper specifically analyses the future path of emissions and income distribution and its determinants in different scenarios. Whereas our analysis is driven by tools which are typically applied in the income distribution literature and which have recently been applied to the analysis of CO 2 emissions distribution, a new methodological approach is that our study is driven by simulations run with the popular regionalised optimal growth climate change model RICE99 over the 1995-2105 period. We find that the architecture of environmental policies, the implementation of flexible mechanisms and income concentration are key determinants of emissions distribution over time. In particular we find a robust positive relationship between measures of inequalities in the distribution of emissions and income and that their magnitude will essentially depend on technological change. (author)

  5. Labeling the human skeleton with {sup 41}Ca to assess changes in bone calcium metabolism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denk, E.; Hurrell, R.F.; Walczyk, T. [Institute of Food Science and Nutrition, ETH Zurich, Laboratory of Human Nutrition, Zuerich (Switzerland); Hillegonds, D.; Vogel, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Center for Accelerator Mass Spectrometry, Livermore, CA (United States); Synal, A. [Paul Scherrer Institute/ETH Zurich, Laboratory of Particle Physics, Zuerich (Switzerland); Geppert, C.; Wendt, K. [Johannes Gutenberg University, Institute of Physics, Mainz (Germany); Fattinger, K. [University Hospital Bern, Department of General Internal Medicine, Inselspital, Bern (Switzerland); Hennessy, C.; Berglund, M. [Institute for Reference Materials and Measurements (IRMM), European Commission Joint Research Centre, Geel (Belgium)

    2006-11-15

    Bone research is limited by the methods available for detecting changes in bone metabolism. While dual X-ray absorptiometry is rather insensitive, biochemical markers are subject to significant intra-individual variation. In the study presented here, we evaluated the isotopic labeling of bone using {sup 41}Ca, a long-lived radiotracer, as an alternative approach. After successful labeling of the skeleton, changes in the systematics of urinary {sup 41}Ca excretion are expected to directly reflect changes in bone Ca metabolism. A minute amount of {sup 41}Ca (100 nCi) was administered orally to 22 postmenopausal women. Kinetics of tracer excretion were assessed by monitoring changes in urinary {sup 41}Ca/{sup 40}Ca isotope ratios up to 700 days post-dosing using accelerator mass spectrometry and resonance ionization mass spectrometry. Isotopic labeling of the skeleton was evaluated by two different approaches: (i) urinary {sup 41}Ca data were fitted to an established function consisting of an exponential term and a power law term for each individual; (ii) {sup 41}Ca data were analyzed by population pharmacokinetic (NONMEM) analysis to identify a compartmental model that describes urinary {sup 41}Ca tracer kinetics. A linear three-compartment model with a central compartment and two sequential peripheral compartments was found to best fit the {sup 41}Ca data. Fits based on the use of the combined exponential/power law function describing urinary tracer excretion showed substantially higher deviations between predicted and measured values than fits based on the compartmental modeling approach. By establishing the urinary {sup 41}Ca excretion pattern using data points up to day 500 and extrapolating these curves up to day 700, it was found that the calculated {sup 41}Ca/{sup 40}Ca isotope ratios in urine were significantly lower than the observed {sup 41}Ca/{sup 40}Ca isotope ratios for both techniques. Compartmental analysis can overcome this limitation. By identifying

  6. Predictive assessment of models for dynamic functional connectivity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren Føns Vind; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Madsen, Kristoffer Hougaard

    2018-01-01

    represent functional brain networks as a meta-stable process with a discrete number of states; however, there is a lack of consensus on how to perform model selection and learn the number of states, as well as a lack of understanding of how different modeling assumptions influence the estimated state......In neuroimaging, it has become evident that models of dynamic functional connectivity (dFC), which characterize how intrinsic brain organization changes over time, can provide a more detailed representation of brain function than traditional static analyses. Many dFC models in the literature...... dynamics. To address these issues, we consider a predictive likelihood approach to model assessment, where models are evaluated based on their predictive performance on held-out test data. Examining several prominent models of dFC (in their probabilistic formulations) we demonstrate our framework...

  7. Sustainable BECCS pathways evaluated by an integrated assessment model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, E.

    2017-12-01

    Negative emissions technologies, particularly Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), are key components of mitigation strategies in ambitious future socioeconomic scenarios analysed by integrated assessment models. Generally, scenarios aiming to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Also, in the context of Paris agreement which acknowledges "a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century", RD&D for the negative emissions technologies in this decade has a crucial role for the possibility of early deployment of the technology. Because of the requirement of potentially extensive use of land and water for producing the bioenergy feedstock to get the anticipated level of gross negative emissions, researches on how to develop sustainable scenarios of BECCS is needed. Here, we present BECCS deployment scenarios that consider economically viable flow of bioenergy system including power generation and conversion process to liquid and gaseous fuels for transportation and heat with consideration of sustainable global biomass use. In the modelling process, detailed bioenergy representations, i.e. various feedstock and conversion technologies with and without CCS, are implemented in an integrated assessment (IA) model GRAPE (Global Relationship Assessment to Protect the Environment). Also, to overcome a general discrepancy about assumed future agricultural yield between 'top-down' IA models and 'bottom-up' estimates, which would crucially affect the land-use pattern, we applied yields change of food and energy crops consistent with process-based biophysical crop models in consideration of changing climate conditions. Using the framework, economically viable strategy for implementing sustainable bioenergy and BECCS flow are evaluated in the scenarios targeting to keep global average

  8. Impact assessment of coastal hazards due to future changes of tropical cyclones in the North Pacific Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuhito Mori

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones generate severe hazards in the middle latitudes. A brief review and applications of dynamical and statistical downscaling of tropical cyclone (TC are described targeting extreme storm surge and storm wave hazard assessment. First, a review of the current understanding of the changes in the characteristics of TCs in the past and in the future is shown. Then, a review and ongoing research about impact assessment of tropical cyclones both dynamical downscaling and statistical model are described for Typhoon Vera in 1959 and Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Finally, several examples of impact assessment of storm surge and extreme wave changes are presented. Changes in both TC intensity and track are linked to future changes in extreme storm surge and wave climate in middle latitude.

  9. Commitment to Change and Challenges to Implementing Changes After Workplace-Based Assessment Rater Training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kogan, Jennifer R; Conforti, Lisa N; Yamazaki, Kenji; Iobst, William; Holmboe, Eric S

    2017-03-01

    Faculty development for clinical faculty who assess trainees is necessary to improve assessment quality and impor tant for competency-based education. Little is known about what faculty plan to do differently after training. This study explored the changes faculty intended to make after workplace-based assessment rater training, their ability to implement change, predictors of change, and barriers encountered. In 2012, 45 outpatient internal medicine faculty preceptors (who supervised residents) from 26 institutions participated in rater training. They completed a commitment to change form listing up to five commitments and ranked (on a 1-5 scale) their motivation for and anticipated difficulty implementing each change. Three months later, participants were interviewed about their ability to implement change and barriers encountered. The authors used logistic regression to examine predictors of change. Of 191 total commitments, the most common commitments focused on what faculty would change about their own teaching (57%) and increasing direct observation (31%). Of the 183 commitments for which follow-up data were available, 39% were fully implemented, 40% were partially implemented, and 20% were not implemented. Lack of time/competing priorities was the most commonly cited barrier. Higher initial motivation (odds ratio [OR] 2.02; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14, 3.57) predicted change. As anticipated difficulty increased, implementation became less likely (OR 0.67; 95% CI 0.49, 0.93). While higher baseline motivation predicted change, multiple system-level barriers undermined ability to implement change. Rater-training faculty development programs should address how faculty motivation and organizational barriers interact and influence ability to change.

  10. A Remote Sensing-Derived Corn Yield Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, Ranjay Man

    be further associated with the actual yield. Utilizing satellite remote sensing products, such as daily NDVI derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) at 250 m pixel size, the crop yield estimation can be performed at a very fine spatial resolution. Therefore, this study examined the potential of these daily NDVI products within agricultural studies and crop yield assessments. In this study, a regression-based approach was proposed to estimate the annual corn yield through changes in MODIS daily NDVI time series. The relationship between daily NDVI and corn yield was well defined and established, and as changes in corn phenology and yield were directly reflected by the changes in NDVI within the growing season, these two entities were combined to develop a relational model. The model was trained using 15 years (2000-2014) of historical NDVI and county-level corn yield data for four major corn producing states: Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and Indiana, representing four climatic regions as South, West North Central, East North Central, and Central, respectively, within the U.S. Corn Belt area. The model's goodness of fit was well defined with a high coefficient of determination (R2>0.81). Similarly, using 2015 yield data for validation, 92% of average accuracy signified the performance of the model in estimating corn yield at county level. Besides providing the county-level corn yield estimations, the derived model was also accurate enough to estimate the yield at finer spatial resolution (field level). The model's assessment accuracy was evaluated using the randomly selected field level corn yield within the study area for 2014, 2015, and 2016. A total of over 120 plot level corn yield were used for validation, and the overall average accuracy was 87%, which statistically justified the model's capability to estimate plot-level corn yield. Additionally, the proposed model was applied to the impact estimation by examining the changes in corn yield

  11. Integrated assessment of global climate change with learning-by-doing and energy-related research and development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller-Fuerstenberger, Georg; Stephan, Gunter

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a small-scale version of an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) of global climate change, which is based on a global, regionally differentiated computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with endogenous technological change. This model can be viewed as a basic framework for analyzing a broad range of economic issues related to climate change, in particular since technological change is represented in two ways: on the one hand, there is learning-by-doing (LbD) in non-fossil energy supply technologies, and on the other hand there is research and development (R and D)-driven energy-saving technical progress in production. Computational experiments are added for illustrating the role of technological innovation in a world both with and without cooperation in the solution of the global climate problem

  12. Consensus-based training and assessment model for general surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szasz, P; Louridas, M; de Montbrun, S; Harris, K A; Grantcharov, T P

    2016-05-01

    Surgical education is becoming competency-based with the implementation of in-training milestones. Training guidelines should reflect these changes and determine the specific procedures for such milestone assessments. This study aimed to develop a consensus view regarding operative procedures and tasks considered appropriate for junior and senior trainees, and the procedures that can be used as technical milestone assessments for trainee progression in general surgery. A Delphi process was followed where questionnaires were distributed to all 17 Canadian general surgery programme directors. Items were ranked on a 5-point Likert scale, with consensus defined as Cronbach's α of at least 0·70. Items rated 4 or above on the 5-point Likert scale by 80 per cent of the programme directors were included in the models. Two Delphi rounds were completed, with 14 programme directors taking part in round one and 11 in round two. The overall consensus was high (Cronbach's α = 0·98). The training model included 101 unique procedures and tasks, 24 specific to junior trainees, 68 specific to senior trainees, and nine appropriate to all. The assessment model included four procedures. A system of operative procedures and tasks for junior- and senior-level trainees has been developed along with an assessment model for trainee progression. These can be used as milestones in competency-based assessments. © 2016 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. A model for food and stimulus changes that signal time-based contingency changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowie, Sarah; Davison, Michael; Elliffe, Douglas

    2014-11-01

    When the availability of reinforcers depends on time since an event, time functions as a discriminative stimulus. Behavioral control by elapsed time is generally weak, but may be enhanced by added stimuli that act as additional time markers. The present paper assessed the effect of brief and continuous added stimuli on control by time-based changes in the reinforcer differential, using a procedure in which the local reinforcer ratio reversed at a fixed time after the most recent reinforcer delivery. Local choice was enhanced by the presentation of the brief stimuli, even when the stimulus change signalled only elapsed time, but not the local reinforcer ratio. The effect of the brief stimulus presentations on choice decreased as a function of time since the most recent stimulus change. We compared the ability of several versions of a model of local choice to describe these data. The data were best described by a model which assumed that error in discriminating the local reinforcer ratio arose from imprecise discrimination of reinforcers in both time and space, suggesting that timing behavior is controlled not only by discrimination elapsed time, but by discrimination of the reinforcer differential in time. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  14. Assessing global vegetation activity using spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulder, Vera L.; van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Regnier, Pierre A. G.

    2016-04-01

    This work demonstrates the potential of modelling vegetation activity using a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model. This approach allows modelling changes in vegetation and climate simultaneous in space and time. Changes of vegetation activity such as phenology are modelled as a dynamic process depending on climate variability in both space and time. Additionally, differences in observed vegetation status can be contributed to other abiotic ecosystem properties, e.g. soil and terrain properties. Although these properties do not change in time, they do change in space and may provide valuable information in addition to the climate dynamics. The spatio-temporal Bayesian models were calibrated at a regional scale because the local trends in space and time can be better captured by the model. The regional subsets were defined according to the SREX segmentation, as defined by the IPCC. Each region is considered being relatively homogeneous in terms of large-scale climate and biomes, still capturing small-scale (grid-cell level) variability. Modelling within these regions is hence expected to be less uncertain due to the absence of these large-scale patterns, compared to a global approach. This overall modelling approach allows the comparison of model behavior for the different regions and may provide insights on the main dynamic processes driving the interaction between vegetation and climate within different regions. The data employed in this study encompasses the global datasets for soil properties (SoilGrids), terrain properties (Global Relief Model based on SRTM DEM and ETOPO), monthly time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices (GIMMS NDVI3g) and climate variables (Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset). The findings proved the potential of a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling approach for assessing vegetation dynamics, at a regional scale. The observed interrelationships of the employed data and the different spatial and temporal trends support

  15. Comparison of the Utility of Two Assessments for Explaining and Predicting Productivity Change: Well-Being Versus an HRA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandy, William M; Coberley, Carter; Pope, James E; Rula, Elizabeth Y

    2016-01-01

    To compare utility of employee well-being to health risk assessment (HRA) as predictors of productivity change. Panel data from 2189 employees who completed surveys 2 years apart were used in hierarchical models comparing the influence of well-being and health risk on longitudinal changes in presenteeism and job performance. Absenteeism change was evaluated in a nonexempt subsample. Change in well-being was the most significant independent predictor of productivity change across all three measures. Comparing hierarchical models, well-being models performed significantly better than HRA models. The HRA added no incremental explanatory power over well-being in combined models. Alone, nonphysical health well-being components outperformed the HRA for all productivity measures. Well-being offers a more comprehensive measure of factors that influence productivity and can be considered preferential to HRA in understanding and addressing suboptimal productivity.

  16. Modeling Bivariate Change in Individual Differences: Prospective Associations Between Personality and Life Satisfaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hounkpatin, Hilda Osafo; Boyce, Christopher J; Dunn, Graham; Wood, Alex M

    2017-09-18

    A number of structural equation models have been developed to examine change in 1 variable or the longitudinal association between 2 variables. The most common of these are the latent growth model, the autoregressive cross-lagged model, the autoregressive latent trajectory model, and the latent change score model. The authors first overview each of these models through evaluating their different assumptions surrounding the nature of change and how these assumptions may result in different data interpretations. They then, to elucidate these issues in an empirical example, examine the longitudinal association between personality traits and life satisfaction. In a representative Dutch sample (N = 8,320), with participants providing data on both personality and life satisfaction measures every 2 years over an 8-year period, the authors reproduce findings from previous research. However, some of the structural equation models overviewed have not previously been applied to the personality-life satisfaction relation. The extended empirical examination suggests intraindividual changes in life satisfaction predict subsequent intraindividual changes in personality traits. The availability of data sets with 3 or more assessment waves allows the application of more advanced structural equation models such as the autoregressive latent trajectory or the extended latent change score model, which accounts for the complex dynamic nature of change processes and allows stronger inferences on the nature of the association between variables. However, the choice of model should be determined by theories of change processes in the variables being studied. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, Matthew; Binner, Amy; Coombes, Emma; Day, Brett; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, Carlo; Hutchins, Michael; Lovett, Andrew; Posen, Paulette

    2016-10-01

    We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Assessment of Change in Psychoanalysis: Another Way of Using the Change After Psychotherapy Scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pires, António Pazo; Gonçalves, João; Sá, Vânia; Silva, Andrea; Sandell, Rolf

    2016-04-01

    A systematic method is presented whereby material from a full course of psychoanalytic treatment is analyzed to assess changes and identify patterns of change. Through an analysis of session notes, changes were assessed using the CHange After Psychotherapy scales (CHAP; Sandell 1987a), which evaluate changes in five rating variables (symptoms, adaptive capacity, insight, basic conflicts, and extratherapeutic factors). Change incidents were identified in nearly every session. Early in the analysis, relatively more change incidents related to insight were found than were found for the other types of change. By contrast, in the third year and part of the fourth year, relatively more change incidents related to basic conflicts and adaptive capacity were found. While changes related to symptoms occurred throughout the course of treatment, such changes were never more frequent than other types of change. A content analysis of the change incidents allowed a determination of when in the treatment the patient's main conflicts (identified clinically) were overcome. A crossing of quantitative data with clinical and qualitative data allowed a better understanding of the patterns of change. © 2016 by the American Psychoanalytic Association.

  19. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change provides data and information on global and regional land cover change in raster format for...

  20. Assessment of PWR Steam Generator modelling in RELAP5/MOD2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Putney, J.M.; Preece, R.J.

    1993-06-01

    An assessment of Steam Generator (SG) modelling in the PWR thermal-hydraulic code RELAP5/MOD2 is presented. The assessment is based on a review of code assessment calculations performed in the UK and elsewhere, detailed calculations against a series of commissioning tests carried out on the Wolf Creek PWR and analytical investigations of the phenomena involved in normal and abnormal SG operation. A number of modelling deficiencies are identified and their implications for PWR safety analysis are discussed -- including methods for compensating for the deficiencies through changes to the input deck. Consideration is also given as to whether the deficiencies will still be present in the successor code RELAP5/MOD3

  1. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prinn, Ronald [MIT; Webster, Mort [MIT

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  2. Analysis of methods and models for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes in the agricultural sector of the US economy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Callaway, J.M.; Cronin, F.J.; Currie, J.W.; Tawil, J.

    1982-08-01

    The overall purpose of this research was to assist the US Department of Energy (DOE) in developing methods for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts due to the effects of increases in the ambient concentration of CO/sub 2/ on agricultural production. First, a comprehensive literature search was undertaken to determine what types of models and methods have been developed, which could be effectively used to conduct assessments of the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ buildup. Specific attention was focused upon models and methods for assessing the physical impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes on crop yields; national and multi-regional agricultural sector models; and macroeconomic models of the US economy. The second task involved a thorough investigation of the research efforts being conducted by other public and private sector organizations in order to determine how more recent analytical methods being developed outside of DOE could be effectively integrated into a more comprehensive analysis of the direct economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ buildup. The third and final task involved synthesizing the information gathered in the first two tasks into a systematic framework for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes originating in the agricultural sector of the US economy. It is concluded that the direct economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ on the agricultural sector and the indirect economic impacts caused by spillover effects from agriculture to other sectors of the economy will be pervasive; however, the direction and magnitude of these impacts on producers and consumers cannot be determined a priori.

  3. The evolution of global disaster risk assessments: from hazard to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2013-04-01

    The perception of disaster risk as a dynamic process interlinked with global change is a fairly recent concept. It gradually emerged as an evolution from new scientific theories, currents of thinking and lessons learned from large disasters since the 1970s. The interest was further heighten, in the mid-1980s, by the Chernobyl nuclear accident and the discovery of the ozone layer hole, both bringing awareness that dangerous hazards can generate global impacts. The creation of the UN International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) and the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990 reinforced the interest for global risk assessment. First global risk models including hazard, exposure and vulnerability components were available since mid-2000s. Since then increased computation power and more refined datasets resolution, led to more numerous and sophisticated global risk models. This article presents a recent history of global disaster risk models, the current status of researches for the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR 2013) and future challenges and limitations for the development of next generation global disaster risk models.

  4. Spatially Explicit Assessment of Ecosystem Resilience: An Approach to Adapt to Climate Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haiming Yan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystem resilience plays a key role in maintaining a steady flow of ecosystem services and enables quick and flexible responses to climate changes, and maintaining or restoring the ecosystem resilience of forests is a necessary societal adaptation to climate change; however, there is a great lack of spatially explicit ecosystem resilience assessments. Drawing on principles of the ecosystem resilience highlighted in the literature, we built on the theory of dissipative structures to develop a conceptual model of the ecosystem resilience of forests. A hierarchical indicator system was designed with the influencing factors of the forest ecosystem resilience, including the stand conditions and the ecological memory, which were further disaggregated into specific indicators. Furthermore, indicator weights were determined with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP and the coefficient of variation method. Based on the remote sensing data and forest inventory data and so forth, the resilience index of forests was calculated. The result suggests that there is significant spatial heterogeneity of the ecosystem resilience of forests, indicating it is feasible to generate large-scale ecosystem resilience maps with this assessment model, and the results can provide a scientific basis for the conservation of forests, which is of great significance to the climate change mitigation.

  5. Assessing changes in drought characteristics with standardized indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Najac, Julien; Martin, Eric; Franchistéguy, Laurent; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel

    2010-05-01

    Standardized drought indices like the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) are more and more frequently adopted for drought reconstruction, monitoring and forecasting, and the SPI has been recently recommended by the World Meteorological Organization to characterize meteorological droughts. Such indices are based on the statistical distribution of a hydrometeorological variable (e.g., precipitation) in a given reference climate, and a drought event is defined as a period with continuously negative index values. Because of the way these indices are constructed, some issues may arise when using them in a non-stationnary climate. This work thus aims at highlighting such issues and demonstrating the different ways these indices may - or may not - be applied and interpreted in the context of an anthropogenic climate change. Three major points are detailed through examples taken from both a high-resolution gridded reanalysis dataset over France and transient projections from the ARPEGE general circulation model downscaled over France. The first point deals with the choice of the reference climate, and more specifically its type (from observations/reanalysis or from present-day modelled climate) and its record period. Second, the interpretation of actual changes are closely linked with the type of the selected drought feature over a future period: mean index value, under-threshold frequency, or drought event characteristics (number, mean duration and magnitude, seasonality, etc.). Finally, applicable approaches as well as related uncertainties depend on the availability of data from a future climate, whether in the form of a fully transient time series from present-day or only a future time slice. The projected evolution of drought characteristics under climate change must inform present decisions on long-term water resources planning. An assessment of changes in drought characteristics should therefore provide water managers with appropriate information that can help

  6. A hydro-meteorological model chain to assess the influence of natural variability and impacts of climate change on extreme events and propose optimal water management

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Trentini, F.; Willkofer, F.; Wood, R. R.; Schmid, F. J.; Ludwig, R.

    2017-12-01

    The ClimEx project (Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec) focuses on the effects of climate change on hydro-meteorological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. Therefore, a hydro-meteorological model chain is applied. It employs high performance computing capacity of the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre facility SuperMUC to dynamically downscale 50 members of the Global Circulation Model CanESM2 over European and Eastern North American domains using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (RCM) CRCM5. Over Europe, the unique single model ensemble is conjointly analyzed with the latest information provided through the CORDEX-initiative, to better assess the influence of natural climate variability and climatic change in the dynamics of extreme events. Furthermore, these 50 members of a single RCM will enhance extreme value statistics (extreme return periods) by exploiting the available 1500 model years for the reference period from 1981 to 2010. Hence, the RCM output is applied to drive the process based, fully distributed, and deterministic hydrological model WaSiM in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. WaSiM and the large ensemble are further used to derive a variety of hydro-meteorological patterns leading to severe flood events. A tool for virtual perfect prediction shall provide a combination of optimal lead time and management strategy to mitigate certain flood events following these patterns.

  7. Advances in Methods for Assessing Longitudinal Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Kevin J.; Mazza, Gina L.; Mazzocco, Michèle M. M.

    2016-01-01

    Educational research aims to understand how and why students change over time. With its emphasis on within-person change, latent change score models provide educational researchers with a more general and flexible framework for testing nuanced hypotheses regarding within-person change and between-person differences in within-person change. Models…

  8. Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

    2013-01-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

  9. Changing the culture of assessment: the dominance of the summative assessment paradigm

    OpenAIRE

    Harrison, Christopher J.; Konings, Karen D.; Schuwirth, Lambert W. T.; Wass, Valerie; van der Vleuten, Cees P. M.

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Despite growing evidence of the benefits of including assessment for learning strategies within programmes of assessment, practical implementation of these approaches is often problematical. Organisational culture change is often hindered by personal and collective beliefs which encourage adherence to the existing organisational paradigm. We aimed to explore how these beliefs influenced proposals to redesign a summative assessment culture in order to improve students' use of asses...

  10. Second California Assessment: Integrated climate change impacts assessment of natural and managed systems. Guest editorial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, G.; Cayan, D.R.; Moser, S.; Hanemann, M.; Jones, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    Since 2006 the scientific community in California, in cooperation with resource managers, has been conducting periodic statewide studies about the potential impacts of climate change on natural and managed systems. This Special Issue is a compilation of revised papers that originate from the most recent assessment that concluded in 2009. As with the 2006 studies that influenced the passage of California's landmark Global Warming Solutions Act (AB32), these papers have informed policy formulation at the state level, helping bring climate adaptation as a complementary measure to mitigation. We provide here a brief introduction to the papers included in this Special Issue focusing on how they are coordinated and support each other. We describe the common set of downscaled climate and sea-level rise scenarios used in this assessment that came from six different global climate models (GCMs) run under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: B1 (low emissions) and A2 (a medium-high emissions). Recommendations for future state assessments, some of which are being implemented in an on-going new assessment that will be completed in 2012, are offered. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  11. Projecting regional climate and cropland changes using a linked biogeophysical-socioeconomic modeling framework: 1. Model description and an equilibrium application over West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guiling; Ahmed, Kazi Farzan; You, Liangzhi; Yu, Miao; Pal, Jeremy; Ji, Zhenming

    2017-03-01

    Agricultural land use alters regional climate through modifying the surface mass, energy, and momentum fluxes; climate influences agricultural land use through their impact on crop yields. These interactions are not well understood and have not been adequately considered in climate projections. This study tackles the critical linkages within the coupled natural-human system of West Africa in a changing climate based on an equilibrium application of a modeling framework that asynchronously couples models of regional climate, crop yield, multimarket agricultural economics, and cropland expansion. Using this regional modeling framework driven with two global climate models, we assess the contributions of land use change (LUC) and greenhouse gas (GHGs) concentration changes to regional climate changes and assess the contribution of climate change and socioeconomic factors to agricultural land use changes. For future cropland expansion in West Africa, our results suggest that socioeconomic development would be the dominant driver in the east (where current cropland coverage is already high) and climate changes would be the primary driver in the west (where future yield drop is severe). For future climate, it is found that agricultural expansion would cause a dry signal in the west and a wet signal in the east downwind, with an east-west contrast similar to the GHG-induced changes. Over a substantial portion of West Africa, the strength of the LUC-induced climate signals is comparable to the GHG-induced changes. Uncertainties originating from the driving global models are small; human decision making related to land use and international trade is a major source of uncertainty.

  12. Sensitivity Analysis of a Land-Use Change Model with and without Agents to Assess Land Abandonment and Long-Term Re-Forestation in a Swiss Mountain Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Maria Brändle

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Land abandonment and the subsequent re-forestation are important drivers behind the loss of ecosystem services in mountain regions. Agent-based models can help to identify global change impacts on farmland abandonment and can test policy and management options to counteract this development. Realigning the representation of human decision making with time scales of ecological processes such as reforestation presents a major challenge in this context. Models either focus on the agent-specific behavior anchored in the current generation of farmers at the expense of representing longer scale environmental processes or they emphasize the simulation of long-term economic and forest developments where representation of human behavior is simplified in time and space. In this context, we compare the representation of individual and aggregated decision-making in the same model structure and by doing so address some implications of choosing short or long term time horizons in land-use modeling. Based on survey data, we integrate dynamic agents into a comparative static economic sector supply model in a Swiss mountain region. The results from an extensive sensitivity analysis show that this agent-based land-use change model can reproduce observed data correctly and that both model versions are sensitive to the same model parameters. In particular, in both models the specification of opportunity costs determines the extent of production activities and land-use changes by restricting the output space. Our results point out that the agent-based model can capture short and medium term developments in land abandonment better than the aggregated version without losing its sensitivity to important socio-economic drivers. For comparative static approaches, extensive sensitivity analysis with respect to opportunity costs, i.e., the measure of benefits forgone due to alternative uses of labor is essential for the assessment of the impact of climate change on land

  13. Assessing Changes in Precipitation and Impacts on Groundwater in Southeastern Brazil using Regional Hydroclimate Reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, A.; Fernandes, M.; Silva, G. C., Jr.

    2017-12-01

    Aquifers can be key players in regional water resources. Precipitation infiltration is the most relevant process in recharging the aquifers. In that regard, understanding precipitation changes and impacts on the hydrological cycle helps in the assessment of groundwater availability from the aquifers. Regional modeling systems can provide precipitation, near-surface air temperature, together with soil moisture at different ground levels from coupled land-surface schemes. More accurate those variables are better the evaluation of the precipitation impact on the groundwater. Downscaling of global reanalysis very often employs regional modeling systems, in order to give more detailed information for impact assessment studies at regional scales. In particular, the regional modeling system, Satellite-enhanced Regional Downscaling for Applied Studies (SRDAS), might improve the accuracy of hydrometeorological variables in regions with spatial and temporal scarcity of in-situ observations. SRDAS combines assimilation of precipitation estimates from gauge-corrected satellite-based products with spectral nudging technique. The SRDAS hourly outputs provide monthly means of atmospheric and land-surface variables, including precipitation, used in the calculations of the hydrological budget terms. Results show the impact of changes in precipitation on groundwater in the aquifer located near the southeastern coastline of Brazil, through the assessment of the water-cycle terms, using a hydrological model during dry and rainy periods found in the 15-year numerical integration of SRDAS.

  14. Assessing impact of changes in human resources features on enterprise activities: simulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kalmykova Svetlana

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The need for creating programs of human resources development is shown; the impact of these programs on organizational effectiveness is taken into account. The stages of development tools and HRD programs on the basis of cognitive modelling are disclosed; these stages will help assess the impact of HR-practices on the key indicators of organization activity at the design stage. The method of HR-practices’ pre-selection in professional development of the employees is represented.

  15. Assessing the Energy and Emissions Implications of Alternative Population Scenarios Using a State-Level Integrated Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, W.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D. H.; Ou, Y.; Smith, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    We use GCAM-USA to examine the sensitivity of energy demands and resulting pollutant emissions and health impacts to differing population projections. The population projections are based on future fertility, mortality, migration and education assumptions consistent with the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (Jones and O'Neill, 2016). By using a state-level integrated assessment model, we capture the energy and emissions implications of population changes. Additionally, we overlay heating degree days and cooling degree days calculated from climate change projections to assess the individual and combined impacts of population shifts and climate change. A unique aspect of this work is the explicit representation of important regulatory drivers, such as the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule and vehicle efficiency standards. Preliminary results indicate there are significant differences across population scenarios in both U.S. national and state-level emissions. In this presentation, we will examine the influence of underlying factors such as climate, population, and technology changes on emissions and environmental impacts at 2050.

  16. Reliability of Coulomb stress changes inferred from correlated uncertainties of finite-fault source models

    KAUST Repository

    Woessner, J.

    2012-07-14

    Static stress transfer is one physical mechanism to explain triggered seismicity. Coseismic stress-change calculations strongly depend on the parameterization of the causative finite-fault source model. These models are uncertain due to uncertainties in input data, model assumptions, and modeling procedures. However, fault model uncertainties have usually been ignored in stress-triggering studies and have not been propagated to assess the reliability of Coulomb failure stress change (ΔCFS) calculations. We show how these uncertainties can be used to provide confidence intervals for co-seismic ΔCFS-values. We demonstrate this for the MW = 5.9 June 2000 Kleifarvatn earthquake in southwest Iceland and systematically map these uncertainties. A set of 2500 candidate source models from the full posterior fault-parameter distribution was used to compute 2500 ΔCFS maps. We assess the reliability of the ΔCFS-values from the coefficient of variation (CV) and deem ΔCFS-values to be reliable where they are at least twice as large as the standard deviation (CV ≤ 0.5). Unreliable ΔCFS-values are found near the causative fault and between lobes of positive and negative stress change, where a small change in fault strike causes ΔCFS-values to change sign. The most reliable ΔCFS-values are found away from the source fault in the middle of positive and negative ΔCFS-lobes, a likely general pattern. Using the reliability criterion, our results support the static stress-triggering hypothesis. Nevertheless, our analysis also suggests that results from previous stress-triggering studies not considering source model uncertainties may have lead to a biased interpretation of the importance of static stress-triggering.

  17. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, G; Stone, D

    2016-01-01

    © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts...

  18. Climate modelling, uncertainty and responses to predictions of change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henderson-Sellers, A.

    1996-01-01

    Article 4.1(F) of the Framework Convention on Climate Change commits all parties to take climate change considerations into account, to the extent feasible, in relevant social, economic and environmental policies and actions and to employ methods such as impact assessments to minimize adverse effects of climate change. This could be achieved by, inter alia, incorporating climate change risk assessment into development planning processes, i.e. relating climatic change to issues of habitability and sustainability. Adaptation is an ubiquitous and beneficial natural and human strategy. Future adaptation (adjustment) to climate is inevitable at the least to decrease the vulnerability to current climatic impacts. An urgent issue is the mismatch between the predictions of global climatic change and the need for information on local to regional change in order to develop adaptation strategies. Mitigation efforts are essential since the more successful mitigation activities are, the less need there will be for adaptation responses. And, mitigation responses can be global (e.g. a uniform percentage reduction in greenhouse gas emissions) while adaptation responses will be local to regional in character and therefore depend upon confident predictions of regional climatic change. The dilemma facing policymakers is that scientists have considerable confidence in likely global climatic changes but virtually zero confidence in regional changes. Mitigation and adaptation strategies relevant to climatic change can most usefully be developed in the context of sound understanding of climate, especially the near-surface continental climate, permitting discussion of societally relevant issues. But, climate models can't yet deliver this type of regionally and locationally specific prediction and some aspects of current research even seem to indicate increased uncertainty. These topics are explored in this paper using the specific example of the prediction of land-surface climate changes

  19. Impact Assessment of Ecosystem Influenced by Changing Global Climate and its National Management Practices II - Focusing on me bioclimatic model development of the forest -

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeon, S.W.; Park, Y.H; Chung, W.C.; Hideo, H.; Kiyoshi, T. [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    2001-12-01

    In order to assess the influences from climate change, lots of studies have been conducted in Asia/Pacific region recently. The analyzed contents in these studies have a wide range of uncertainty even though the results were limited to the direct influences. While the geographical resolutions of various data used in the model are important factors, integration and expansion of the basic physical and biological reactions is another problem. The results from the previous researches suggest that there will be some problems, which are not to reflect the climate change correctly due to the regional small scale and various utilization of land, if data of the existing large-scale influence model is applied to Korea as it is. This study adopts data of 5 large-scale GCM (Global Circulation Model) in order to find the special climate change pattern and estimates the influences from climate change based on the pattern. In the interpretation of the results from this study, therefore, it is necessary to apply the method, which simultaneously analyzes averages and ranges of the estimated influences by 5 GCM, when forecasting influences by scenarios in 2003, the third year of this study. On considering this background, even though the averages and transition ranges of GCM data in this study provide many suggestions for estimating the influences ranges of forest, their application should be conducted after the serious examination because they do not perfectly reflect the regional microclimate. 108 refs., 56 figs., 24 tabs.

  20. Assessing climate change impacts on the rape stem weevil, Ceutorhynchus napi Gyll., based on bias- and non-bias-corrected regional climate change projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junk, J.; Ulber, B.; Vidal, S.; Eickermann, M.

    2015-11-01

    Agricultural production is directly affected by projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation. A multi-model ensemble of regional climate change projections indicated shifts towards higher air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns during the summer and winter seasons up to the year 2100 for the region of Goettingen (Lower Saxony, Germany). A second major controlling factor of the agricultural production is the infestation level by pests. Based on long-term field surveys and meteorological observations, a calibration of an existing model describing the migration of the pest insect Ceutorhynchus napi was possible. To assess the impacts of climate on pests under projected changing environmental conditions, we combined the results of regional climate models with the phenological model to describe the crop invasion of this species. In order to reduce systematic differences between the output of the regional climate models and observational data sets, two different bias correction methods were applied: a linear correction for air temperature and a quantile mapping approach for precipitation. Only the results derived from the bias-corrected output of the regional climate models showed satisfying results. An earlier onset, as well as a prolongation of the possible time window for the immigration of Ceutorhynchus napi, was projected by the majority of the ensemble members.

  1. Assessing climate change impacts on the rape stem weevil, Ceutorhynchus napi Gyll., based on bias- and non-bias-corrected regional climate change projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junk, J; Ulber, B; Vidal, S; Eickermann, M

    2015-11-01

    Agricultural production is directly affected by projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation. A multi-model ensemble of regional climate change projections indicated shifts towards higher air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns during the summer and winter seasons up to the year 2100 for the region of Goettingen (Lower Saxony, Germany). A second major controlling factor of the agricultural production is the infestation level by pests. Based on long-term field surveys and meteorological observations, a calibration of an existing model describing the migration of the pest insect Ceutorhynchus napi was possible. To assess the impacts of climate on pests under projected changing environmental conditions, we combined the results of regional climate models with the phenological model to describe the crop invasion of this species. In order to reduce systematic differences between the output of the regional climate models and observational data sets, two different bias correction methods were applied: a linear correction for air temperature and a quantile mapping approach for precipitation. Only the results derived from the bias-corrected output of the regional climate models showed satisfying results. An earlier onset, as well as a prolongation of the possible time window for the immigration of Ceutorhynchus napi, was projected by the majority of the ensemble members.

  2. Assessing the impacts of climate change on rice yields in the main rice areas of China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yao, Fengmei; Xu, Yinglong; Lin, Erda; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Zhang, Jiahua

    2007-01-01

    This paper assesses the impact of climate change on irrigated rice yield using B2 climate change scenario from the Regional Climate Model (RCM) and CERES-rice model during 2071--2090. Eight typical rice stations ranging in latitude, longitude, and elevation that are located in the main rice ecological zones of China are selected for impact assessment. First, Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES)-rice model is validated using farm experiment data in selected stations. The simulated results represent satisfactorily the trend of flowering duration and yields. The deviation of simulation within ± 10% of observed flowering duration and ± 15% of observed yield. Second, the errors of the outputs of RCM due to the difference of topography between station point and grid point is corrected. The corrected output of the RCM used for simulating rice flowering duration and yield is more reliable than the not corrected. Without CO2 direct effect on crop, the results from the assessment explore that B2 climate change scenario would have a negative impact on rice yield at most rice stations and have little impacts at Fuzhou and Kunming. To find the change of inter-annual rice yield, a preliminary assessment is made based on comparative cumulative probability at low and high yield and the coefficient variable of yield between the B2 scenario and baseline. Without the CO2 direct effect on rice yield, the result indicates that frequency for low yield would increase and it reverses for high yield, and the variance for rice yield would increase. It is concluded that high frequency at low yield and high variances of rice yield could pose a threat to rice yield at most selected stations in the main rice areas of China. With the CO2 direct effect on rice yield, rice yield increase in all selected stations

  3. Assessing the impacts of climate change on rice yields in the main rice areas of China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yao, Fengmei [College of Earth Sciences, The Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 19A, Yuquan Road, Beijing, 100049 (China); Xu, Yinglong; Lin, Erda [Agricultural Environment and Sustainable Development Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, 100081 (China); Yokozawa, Masayuki [National Institute for Agro-environmental Sciences, Tsukuba 305-8604 (Japan); Zhang, Jiahua [Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081 (China)

    2007-02-15

    This paper assesses the impact of climate change on irrigated rice yield using B2 climate change scenario from the Regional Climate Model (RCM) and CERES-rice model during 2071--2090. Eight typical rice stations ranging in latitude, longitude, and elevation that are located in the main rice ecological zones of China are selected for impact assessment. First, Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES)-rice model is validated using farm experiment data in selected stations. The simulated results represent satisfactorily the trend of flowering duration and yields. The deviation of simulation within {+-} 10% of observed flowering duration and {+-} 15% of observed yield. Second, the errors of the outputs of RCM due to the difference of topography between station point and grid point is corrected. The corrected output of the RCM used for simulating rice flowering duration and yield is more reliable than the not corrected. Without CO2 direct effect on crop, the results from the assessment explore that B2 climate change scenario would have a negative impact on rice yield at most rice stations and have little impacts at Fuzhou and Kunming. To find the change of inter-annual rice yield, a preliminary assessment is made based on comparative cumulative probability at low and high yield and the coefficient variable of yield between the B2 scenario and baseline. Without the CO2 direct effect on rice yield, the result indicates that frequency for low yield would increase and it reverses for high yield, and the variance for rice yield would increase. It is concluded that high frequency at low yield and high variances of rice yield could pose a threat to rice yield at most selected stations in the main rice areas of China. With the CO2 direct effect on rice yield, rice yield increase in all selected stations.

  4. Evaluating Change in Behavioral Preferences: Multidimensional Scaling Single-Ideal Point Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Cody

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of the article is to propose a multidimensional scaling single-ideal point model as a method to evaluate changes in individuals' preferences under the explicit methodological framework of behavioral preference assessment. One example is used to illustrate the approach for a clear idea of what this approach can accomplish.

  5. Lifestyle Assessment: Helping Patients Change Health Behaviors

    OpenAIRE

    Ciliska, Donna; Wilson, Douglas M. C.

    1984-01-01

    This article is the second in a series of six on lifestyle assessment and behavior change. The first article presented an assessment tool called FANTASTIC, which has been tested for reliability and is currently in wide use. After assessment, family physicians must help patients decide to change—and give them guidance on how to change—unhealthy behaviors. This article explains how the family physician can use educational, behavioral and relaxation strategies to increase patients' motivation, m...

  6. Adapting observationally based metrics of biogeophysical feedbacks from land cover/land use change to climate modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Liang; Dirmeyer, Paul A

    2016-01-01

    To assess the biogeophysical impacts of land cover/land use change (LCLUC) on surface temperature, two observation-based metrics and their applicability in climate modeling were explored in this study. Both metrics were developed based on the surface energy balance, and provided insight into the contribution of different aspects of land surface change (such as albedo, surface roughness, net radiation and surface heat fluxes) to changing climate. A revision of the first metric, the intrinsic biophysical mechanism, can be used to distinguish the direct and indirect effects of LCLUC on surface temperature. The other, a decomposed temperature metric, gives a straightforward depiction of separate contributions of all components of the surface energy balance. These two metrics well capture observed and model simulated surface temperature changes in response to LCLUC. Results from paired FLUXNET sites and land surface model sensitivity experiments indicate that surface roughness effects usually dominate the direct biogeophysical feedback of LCLUC, while other effects play a secondary role. However, coupled climate model experiments show that these direct effects can be attenuated by large scale atmospheric changes (indirect feedbacks). When applied to real-time transient LCLUC experiments, the metrics also demonstrate usefulness for assessing the performance of climate models and quantifying land–atmosphere interactions in response to LCLUC. (letter)

  7. U.S. Global Change Research Program National Climate Assessment Global Change Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmes, Curt

    2012-01-01

    The program: a) Coordinates Federal research to better understand and prepare the nation for global change. b) Priori4zes and supports cutting edge scientific work in global change. c) Assesses the state of scientific knowledge and the Nation s readiness to respond to global change. d) Communicates research findings to inform, educate, and engage the global community.

  8. A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Richard; Prestele, Reinhard; Verburg, Peter H.

    2018-05-01

    land change dynamics that can be applied in Earth system models and integrated assessment models.

  9. A joint modelling exercise designed to assess the respective impact of emission changes and meteorological variability on the observed air quality trends in major urban hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colette, Augustin; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Dangiola, Ariela; D'Isidoro, Massimo; Gauss, Michael; Granier, Claire; Hodnebrog, Øivind; Jakobs, Hermann; Kanakidou, Maria; Khokhar, Fahim; Law, Kathy; Maurizi, Alberto; Meleux, Frederik; Memmesheimer, Michael; Nyiri, Agnes; Rouil, Laurence; Stordal, Frode; Tampieri, Francesco

    2010-05-01

    With the growth of urban agglomerations, assessing the drivers of variability of air quality in and around the main anthropogenic emission hotspots has become a major societal concern as well as a scientific challenge. These drivers include emission changes and meteorological variability; both of them can be investigated by means of numerical modelling of trends over the past few years. A collaborative effort has been developed in the framework of the CityZen European project to address this question. Several chemistry and transport models (CTMs) are deployed in this activity: four regional models (BOLCHEM, CHIMERE, EMEP and EURAD) and three global models (CTM2, MOZART, and TM4). The period from 1998 to 2007 has been selected for the historic reconstruction. The focus for the present preliminary presentation is Europe. A consistent set of emissions is used by all partners (EMEP for the European domain and IPCC-AR5 beyond) while a variety of meteorological forcing is used to gain robustness in the ensemble spread amongst models. The results of this experiment will be investigated to address the following questions: - Is the envelope of models able to reproduce the observed trends of the key chemical constituents? - How the variability amongst models changes in time and space and what does it tell us about the processes driving the observed trends? - Did chemical regimes and aerosol formation processes changed in selected hotspots? Answering the above questions will contribute to fulfil the ultimate goal of the present study: distinguishing the respective contribution of meteorological variability and emissions changes on air quality trends in major anthropogenic emissions hotspots.

  10. Stages of change in audiology: comparison of three self-assessment measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingo, Elisabeth; Brännström, K Jonas; Andersson, Gerhard; Lunner, Thomas; Laplante-Lévesque, Ariane

    2017-07-01

    In a clinical setting, theories of health behaviour change could help audiologists and other hearing health care professionals understand the barriers that prevent people with hearing problems to seek audiological help. The transtheoretical (stages of change) model of health behaviour change is one of these theories. It describes a person's journey towards health behaviour change (e.g. seeking help or taking up rehabilitation) in separate stages: precontemplation, contemplation, preparation, action, and, finally, maintenance. A short self-assessment measure of stages of change may guide the clinician and facilitate first appointments. This article describes correlations between three stages of change measures of different lengths, one 24-item and two one-item. Participants were recruited through an online hearing screening study. Adults who failed the speech-in-noise recognition screening test and who had never undergone a hearing aid fitting were invited to complete further questionnaires online, including the three stages of change measures. In total, 224 adults completed the three measures. A majority of the participants were categorised as being in one of the information- and help-seeking stage of change (contemplation or preparation). The three stages of change measures were significantly correlated. Conclusions Our results support further investigating the use of a one-item measure to determine stages of change in people with hearing impairment.

  11. Challenges and priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens in the context of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Özkan, Şeyda; Vitali, Andrea; Lacetera, Nicola; Amon, Barbara; Bannink, André; Bartley, Dave J.; Blanco-penedo, Isabel; Haas, De Yvette; Dufrasne, Isabelle; Elliott, John; Eory, Vera; Fox, Naomi J.; Garnsworthy, Phil C.; Gengler, Nicolas; Hammami, Hedi; Kyriazakis, Ilias; Leclère, David; Lessire, Françoise; Macleod, Michael; Robinson, Timothy P.; Ruete, Alejandro; Sandars, Daniel L.; Shrestha, Shailesh; Stott, Alistair W.; Twardy, Stanislaw; Vanrobays, Marie-Laure; Ahmadi, Bouda Vosough; Weindl, Isabelle; Wheelhouse, Nick; Williams, Adrian G.; Williams, Hefin W.; Wilson, Anthony J.; Østergaard, Søren; Kipling, Richard P.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change has the potential to impair livestock health, with consequences for animal welfare, productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and human livelihoods and health. Modelling has an important role in assessing the impacts of climate change on livestock systems and the efficacy of potential

  12. Time-dependent modelling of environmental change: the effect of quaternary glaciations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boulton, G.S.

    1990-01-01

    The dominant amplitudes and frequencies of global climatic change over the last three million years can now be reconstructed with great precision. Extrapolations from this can then be used to simulate the future course of climatic change. Correlation between long oceanic records of global change and relatively brief, terrestrial geological records of regional and local changes, can be used to reconstruct long regional and local records. The precise evolution of many environmental processes driven by these local changes is inherently indeterminate, but by using the evidence from sediments produced by these changes as constraints on process models, it is possible to correlate regional climatic changes with regional process responses. Thus simulated climatic futures can be used to assess the character and magnitudes of processes which are important for waste disposal sites. 21 refs., 8 figs

  13. Climate Change Impact Assessment of Dike Safety and Flood Risk in the Vidaa River System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, H.; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Larsen, J.

    2013-01-01

    The impact of climate change on the flood risk and dike safety in the Vidaa River system, a cross-border catchment located in the southern part of Jutland, Denmark and northern Germany, is analysed. The river discharges to the Wadden Sea through a tidal sluice, and extreme water level conditions...... in the river system occur in periods of high sea water levels where the sluice is closed and increased catchment run-off take place. Climate model data from the ENSEMBLES data archive are used to assess the changes in climate variables and the resulting effect on catchment run-off. Extreme catchment run......-off is expected to increase about 8 % in 2050 and 14 % in 2100. The changes in sea water level is assessed considering climate projections of mean sea level rise, isostatic changes, and changes in storm surge statistics. At the Vidaa sluice a mean sea level rise of 0.15–0.39 m in 2050 and 0.41–1.11 m in 2010...

  14. Assessing the costs and market impacts of carbon sequestration, climate change, and acid rain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Callaway, J.M.

    2000-03-01

    This thesis provides fourteen journal articles and papers. Thirteen of these papers were published in referred journals, covering environmental economics, policy modelling, policy analysis, and the physical sciences. One paper was published as a USDA Forest Service research report. The papers in the thesis are divided into three topical areas: 1) Section 2: The Economics of Carbon Sequestration. Eight papers plus Appendix A of the thesis cover the development and application of models to estimate the economic costs and management consequences of policies to sequester carbon emissions by planting trees on agricultural land in the US or through more intensive forest management. 2) Section 3: The Economics of Climate Change Damages. Two papers of the thesis cover the development of models that can be used to estimate the market and nonmarket damages associated with the impacts of climate change on water resources in the US. 3) Section 4: The Economics of Acid Rain Damages. Three papers in the thesis examine the methods that were developed to estimate the damages due to acid rain in the US by the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) and discuss more generally the role of economic policy analysis in this assessment. (EHS)

  15. Physical-Socio-Economic Modeling of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamberlain, R. G.; Vatan, F.

    2008-12-01

    Because of the global nature of climate change, any assessment of the effects of plans, policies, and response to climate change demands a model that encompasses the entire Earth System, including socio- economic factors. Physics-based climate models of the factors that drive global temperatures, rainfall patterns, and sea level are necessary but not sufficient to guide decision making. Actions taken by farmers, industrialists, environmentalists, politicians, and other policy makers may result in large changes to economic factors, international relations, food production, disease vectors, and beyond. These consequences will not be felt uniformly around the globe or even across a given region. Policy models must comprehend all of these considerations. Combining physics-based models of the Earth's climate and biosphere with societal models of population dynamics, economics, and politics is a grand challenge with high stakes. We propose to leverage our recent advances in modeling and simulation of military stability and reconstruction operations to models that address all these areas of concern. Following over twenty years' experience of successful combat simulation, JPL has started developing Minerva, which will add demographic, economic, political, and media/information models to capabilities that already exist. With these new models, for which we have design concepts, it will be possible to address a very wide range of potential national and international problems that were previously inaccessible. Our climate change model builds on Minerva and expands the geographical horizon from playboxes containing regions and neighborhoods to the entire globe. This system consists of a collection of interacting simulation models that specialize in different aspects of the global situation. They will each contribute to and draw from a pool of shared data. The basic models are: the physical model; the demographic model; the political model; the economic model; and the media

  16. Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandryk, M.; Reidsma, P.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2012-01-01

    Towards 2050, climate change is one of the possible drivers that will change the farming landscape, but market, policy and technological development may be at least equally important. In the last decade, many studies assessed impacts of climate change and specific adaptation strategies. However,

  17. Autobiography and Anorexia: A Qualitative Alternative to Prochaska and DiClemente's Stages of Change Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Félix Díaz

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we propose a qualitative approach to the study of the ways in which people face good and poor health issues. During the last 30 years, Prochaska and DiClemente's "trans-theoretical model" (1982, 1983, 1984, 1986, 1992 has gained relevance as a model to assess disposition for change in patients. We revise the features of the model and its common techniques to assess stages of change, underlining its methodological and conceptual problems. Particularly, we discuss the paradoxes set by "pre-contemplation" as a concept; the exogenous definition of human problems in terms of institutional and clinical criteria; and the ambiguity of the model, where the purpose of accompanying and orienting the patient contrasts with the imposition of problem definitions and solution strategies. We propose a narrative analysis of autobiographies of patients as an alternative that recasts their own notions of "change," "problem," and "vital trajectory." We illustrate this possibility with the analysis of an autobiographic interview with a woman who has a history of anorexia. URN: http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs1203209

  18. Benchmarking sensitivity of biophysical processes to leaf area changes in land surface models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forzieri, Giovanni; Duveiller, Gregory; Georgievski, Goran; Li, Wei; Robestson, Eddy; Kautz, Markus; Lawrence, Peter; Ciais, Philippe; Pongratz, Julia; Sitch, Stephen; Wiltshire, Andy; Arneth, Almut; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2017-04-01

    Land surface models (LSM) are widely applied as supporting tools for policy-relevant assessment of climate change and its impact on terrestrial ecosystems, yet knowledge of their performance skills in representing the sensitivity of biophysical processes to changes in vegetation density is still limited. This is particularly relevant in light of the substantial impacts on regional climate associated with the changes in leaf area index (LAI) following the observed global greening. Benchmarking LSMs on the sensitivity of the simulated processes to vegetation density is essential to reduce their uncertainty and improve the representation of these effects. Here we present a novel benchmark system to assess model capacity in reproducing land surface-atmosphere energy exchanges modulated by vegetation density. Through a collaborative effort of different modeling groups, a consistent set of land surface energy fluxes and LAI dynamics has been generated from multiple LSMs, including JSBACH, JULES, ORCHIDEE, CLM4.5 and LPJ-GUESS. Relationships of interannual variations of modeled surface fluxes to LAI changes have been analyzed at global scale across different climatological gradients and compared with satellite-based products. A set of scoring metrics has been used to assess the overall model performances and a detailed analysis in the climate space has been provided to diagnose possible model errors associated to background conditions. Results have enabled us to identify model-specific strengths and deficiencies. An overall best performing model does not emerge from the analyses. However, the comparison with other models that work better under certain metrics and conditions indicates that improvements are expected to be potentially achievable. A general amplification of the biophysical processes mediated by vegetation is found across the different land surface schemes. Grasslands are characterized by an underestimated year-to-year variability of LAI in cold climates

  19. Assessing organizational change in multisector community health alliances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Jeffrey A; Hearld, Larry R; Shi, Yunfeng

    2015-02-01

    The purpose of this article was to identify some common organizational features of multisector health care alliances (MHCAs) and the analytic challenges presented by those characteristics in assessing organizational change. Two rounds of an Internet-based survey of participants in 14 MHCAs. We highlight three analytic challenges that can arise when quantitatively studying the organizational characteristics of MHCAs-assessing change in MHCA organization, assessment of construct reliability, and aggregation of individual responses to reflect organizational characteristics. We illustrate these issues using a leadership effectiveness scale (12 items) validated in previous research and data from 14 MHCAs participating in the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation's Aligning Forces for Quality (AF4Q) program. High levels of instability and turnover in MHCA membership create challenges in using survey data to study changes in key organizational characteristics of MHCAs. We offer several recommendations to diagnose the source and extent of these problems. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  20. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Three Representative Ukrainian Catchments Using Eco-Hydrological Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulii Didovets

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The information about climate change impact on river discharge is vitally important for planning adaptation measures. The future changes can affect different water-related sectors. The main goal of this study was to investigate the potential water resource changes in Ukraine, focusing on three mesoscale river catchments (Teteriv, Upper Western Bug, and Samara characteristic for different geographical zones. The catchment scale watershed model—Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM—was setup, calibrated, and validated for the three catchments under consideration. A set of seven GCM-RCM (General Circulation Model-Regional Climate Model coupled climate scenarios corresponding to RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 were used to drive the hydrological catchment model. The climate projections, used in the study, were considered as three combinations of low, intermediate, and high end scenarios. Our results indicate the shifts in the seasonal distribution of runoff in all three catchments. The spring high flow occurs earlier as a result of temperature increases and earlier snowmelt. The fairly robust trend is an increase in river discharge in the winter season, and most of the scenarios show a potential decrease in river discharge in the spring.

  1. PORFLOW Modeling Supporting The H-Tank Farm Performance Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordan, J. M.; Flach, G. P.; Westbrook, M. L.

    2012-01-01

    Numerical simulations of groundwater flow and contaminant transport in the vadose and saturated zones have been conducted using the PORFLOW code in support of an overall Performance Assessment (PA) of the H-Tank Farm. This report provides technical detail on selected aspects of PORFLOW model development and describes the structure of the associated electronic files. The PORFLOW models for the H-Tank Farm PA, Rev. 1 were updated with grout, solubility, and inventory changes. The aquifer model was refined. In addition, a set of flow sensitivity runs were performed to allow flow to be varied in the related probabilistic GoldSim models. The final PORFLOW concentration values are used as input into a GoldSim dose calculator

  2. PORFLOW Modeling Supporting The H-Tank Farm Performance Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jordan, J. M.; Flach, G. P.; Westbrook, M. L.

    2012-08-31

    Numerical simulations of groundwater flow and contaminant transport in the vadose and saturated zones have been conducted using the PORFLOW code in support of an overall Performance Assessment (PA) of the H-Tank Farm. This report provides technical detail on selected aspects of PORFLOW model development and describes the structure of the associated electronic files. The PORFLOW models for the H-Tank Farm PA, Rev. 1 were updated with grout, solubility, and inventory changes. The aquifer model was refined. In addition, a set of flow sensitivity runs were performed to allow flow to be varied in the related probabilistic GoldSim models. The final PORFLOW concentration values are used as input into a GoldSim dose calculator.

  3. Scenario-Led Habitat Modelling of Land Use Change Impacts on Key Species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Geary

    Full Text Available Accurate predictions of the impacts of future land use change on species of conservation concern can help to inform policy-makers and improve conservation measures. If predictions are spatially explicit, predicted consequences of likely land use changes could be accessible to land managers at a scale relevant to their working landscape. We introduce a method, based on open source software, which integrates habitat suitability modelling with scenario-building, and illustrate its use by investigating the effects of alternative land use change scenarios on landscape suitability for black grouse Tetrao tetrix. Expert opinion was used to construct five near-future (twenty years scenarios for the 800 km2 study site in upland Scotland. For each scenario, the cover of different land use types was altered by 5-30% from 20 random starting locations and changes in habitat suitability assessed by projecting a MaxEnt suitability model onto each simulated landscape. A scenario converting grazed land to moorland and open forestry was the most beneficial for black grouse, and 'increased grazing' (the opposite conversion the most detrimental. Positioning of new landscape blocks was shown to be important in some situations. Increasing the area of open-canopy forestry caused a proportional decrease in suitability, but suitability gains for the 'reduced grazing' scenario were nonlinear. 'Scenario-led' landscape simulation models can be applied in assessments of the impacts of land use change both on individual species and also on diversity and community measures, or ecosystem services. A next step would be to include landscape configuration more explicitly in the simulation models, both to make them more realistic, and to examine the effects of habitat placement more thoroughly. In this example, the recommended policy would be incentives on grazing reduction to benefit black grouse.

  4. Modelling Hydrology and Erosion in a Changing Socio-Economic Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkby, M. J.; van Delden, H.; Hahn, B. M.; Irvine, B. J.

    2009-12-01

    Although forecasting systems have a limited time horizon due to the impact of unforeseen events, a rationally based model is able to provide some insights into likely short term behaviour, taking account of the dynamic interactions between climate, physical processes and land use decisions. The biophysical model (PESERA) takes land use decisions as inputs, together with climatic data or scenarios, topography and soils, to generate estimates of runoff, soil erosion, crop or natural vegetation growth and physical suitability, primarily based on crop yields. Estimates are made at a spatial resolution of 100 - 1000 m according to the area involved, the former for a catchment of say 1000 km2, the latter for a continental region. The generic dynamic land-use (change) model (METRONAMICA) has been fully integrated with PESERA to create the ‘Integrated Assessment Model’ (IAM) within the DESURVEY European project. The IAM takes biophysical performance and other spatial characteristics as an input and combines them with socio-economic data to determine potential suitability for each possible residential, commercial, agricultural etc use. The model then allocates each land use type and detailed agricultural class to the locations with the highest potential, based on neighbouring and historic choices as well as short-term economic advantage to estimate probabilities of change to alternative uses. Suitability, accessibility and zoning regulations are included in the decision process to provide the locational characteristics. Change of land use over time is thus determined within a cellular automaton model that generates rational spatial patterns of land use choice. The IAM is being applied at country scale in southern Europe and to smaller regions in North Africa. Although, in the long term, climate change is likely to dominate physical and economic impacts, in the shorter term over which this type of model can most reliably be used, the significance of land use change is

  5. Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. We apply an ensemble of watershed models to simulate and assess the responses of hydrological and total Hg (HgT) fluxes and concentrations to two climate change projections in the US Co...

  6. Assessing Forest Carbon Response to Climate Change and Disturbances Using Long-term Hydro-climatic Observations and Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trettin, C.; Dai, Z.; Amatya, D. M.

    2014-12-01

    Long-term climatic and hydrologic observations on the Santee Experimental Forest in the lower coastal plain of South Carolina were used to estimate long-term changes in hydrology and forest carbon dynamics for a pair of first-order watersheds. Over 70 years of climate data indicated that warming in this forest area in the last decades was faster than the global mean; 35+ years of hydrologic records showed that forest ecosystem succession three years following Hurricane Hugo caused a substantial change in the ratio of runoff to precipitation. The change in this relationship between the paired watersheds was attributed to altered evapotranspiration processes caused by greater abundance of pine in the treatment watershed and regeneration of the mixed hardwood-pine forest on the reference watershed. The long-term records and anomalous observations are highly valuable for reliable calibration and validation of hydrological and biogeochemical models capturing the effects of climate variability. We applied the hydrological model MIKESHE that showed that runoff and water table level are sensitive to global warming, and that the sustained warming trends can be expected to decrease stream discharge and lower the mean water table depth. The spatially-explicit biogeochemical model Forest-DNDC, validated using biomass measurements from the watersheds, was used to assess carbon dynamics in response to high resolution hydrologic observation data and simulation results. The simulations showed that the long-term spatiotemporal carbon dynamics, including biomass and fluxes of soil carbon dioxide and methane were highly regulated by disturbance regimes, climatic conditions and water table depth. The utility of linked-modeling framework demonstrated here to assess biogeochemical responses at the watershed scale suggests applications for assessing the consequences of climate change within an urbanizing forested landscape. The approach may also be applicable for validating large

  7. Uncertainties in radioecological assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, F.O.; Miller, C.W.; Ng, Y.C.

    1983-01-01

    Environmental radiological assessments rely heavily on the use of mathematical models. The predictions of these models are inherently uncertain because models are inexact representations of real systems. The major sources of this uncertainty are related to bias in model formulation and imprecision in parameter estimation. The magnitude of uncertainty is a function of the questions asked of the model and the specific radionuclides and exposure pathways of dominant importance. It is concluded that models developed as research tools should be distinguished from models developed for assessment applications. Furthermore, increased model complexity does not necessarily guarantee increased accuracy. To improve the realism of assessment modeling, stochastic procedures are recommended that translate uncertain parameter estimates into a distribution of predicted values. These procedures also permit the importance of model parameters to be ranked according to their relative contribution to the overall predicted uncertainty. Although confidence in model predictions can be improved through site-specific parameter estimation and increased model validation, health risk factors and internal dosimetry models will probably remain important contributors to the amount of uncertainty that is irreducible. 41 references, 4 figures, 4 tables

  8. Changes of peritoneal transport parameters with time on dialysis: assessment with sequential peritoneal equilibration test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waniewski, Jacek; Antosiewicz, Stefan; Baczynski, Daniel; Poleszczuk, Jan; Pietribiasi, Mauro; Lindholm, Bengt; Wankowicz, Zofia

    2017-10-27

    Sequential peritoneal equilibration test (sPET) is based on the consecutive performance of the peritoneal equilibration test (PET, 4-hour, glucose 2.27%) and the mini-PET (1-hour, glucose 3.86%), and the estimation of peritoneal transport parameters with the 2-pore model. It enables the assessment of the functional transport barrier for fluid and small solutes. The objective of this study was to check whether the estimated model parameters can serve as better and earlier indicators of the changes in the peritoneal transport characteristics than directly measured transport indices that depend on several transport processes. 17 patients were examined using sPET twice with the interval of about 8 months (230 ± 60 days). There was no difference between the observational parameters measured in the 2 examinations. The indices for solute transport, but not net UF, were well correlated between the examinations. Among the estimated parameters, a significant decrease between the 2 examinations was found only for hydraulic permeability LpS, and osmotic conductance for glucose, whereas the other parameters remained unchanged. These fluid transport parameters did not correlate with D/P for creatinine, although the decrease in LpS values between the examinations was observed mostly for patients with low D/P for creatinine. We conclude that changes in fluid transport parameters, hydraulic permeability and osmotic conductance for glucose, as assessed by the pore model, may precede the changes in small solute transport. The systematic assessment of fluid transport status needs specific clinical and mathematical tools beside the standard PET tests.

  9. The uncertainty cascade in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions - the Biala Tarnowska case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata

    2016-04-01

    Uncertainty in the results of the hydraulic model is not only associated with the limitations of that model and the shortcomings of data. An important factor that has a major impact on the uncertainty of the flood risk assessment in a changing climate conditions is associated with the uncertainty of future climate scenarios (IPCC WG I, 2013). Future climate projections provided by global climate models are used to generate future runoff required as an input to hydraulic models applied in the derivation of flood risk maps. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps. One of the aims of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the process, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-section. The study shows that the application of the simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the

  10. Post-closure biosphere assessment modelling: comparison of complex and more stylised approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walke, Russell C; Kirchner, Gerald; Xu, Shulan; Dverstorp, Björn

    2015-10-01

    Geological disposal facilities are the preferred option for high-level radioactive waste, due to their potential to provide isolation from the surface environment (biosphere) on very long timescales. Assessments need to strike a balance between stylised models and more complex approaches that draw more extensively on site-specific information. This paper explores the relative merits of complex versus more stylised biosphere models in the context of a site-specific assessment. The more complex biosphere modelling approach was developed by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) for the Formark candidate site for a spent nuclear fuel repository in Sweden. SKB's approach is built on a landscape development model, whereby radionuclide releases to distinct hydrological basins/sub-catchments (termed 'objects') are represented as they evolve through land rise and climate change. Each of seventeen of these objects is represented with more than 80 site specific parameters, with about 22 that are time-dependent and result in over 5000 input values per object. The more stylised biosphere models developed for this study represent releases to individual ecosystems without environmental change and include the most plausible transport processes. In the context of regulatory review of the landscape modelling approach adopted in the SR-Site assessment in Sweden, the more stylised representation has helped to build understanding in the more complex modelling approaches by providing bounding results, checking the reasonableness of the more complex modelling, highlighting uncertainties introduced through conceptual assumptions and helping to quantify the conservatisms involved. The more stylised biosphere models are also shown capable of reproducing the results of more complex approaches. A major recommendation is that biosphere assessments need to justify the degree of complexity in modelling approaches as well as simplifying and conservative assumptions. In light of

  11. Modelling the effects of climate change on streamflow in a sub-basin of the lower Churchill River

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pryse-Phillips, Amy; Snelgrove, Ken

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is likely to affect extreme flows as well as average flows. This is an important consideration for hydroelectric power producers. This paper presented the development of an approach to assess the impact of climate changes on seasonal and average annual river flows. The main goal was to investigate how climate change will affect the hydroelectric potential of the Lower Churchill Project using different combinations of emissions scenarios, climate model output and downscaling techniques. The setup and calibration of the numerical hydrological model, WATFLOOD, were performed as preliminary work for the Pinus River basin selected as study basin. Downscaled climate data from the North America change assessment program for both current and future climate periods were analysed. The calibrated model was used to simulate the current and future period streamflow scenarios. The results showed a 13 percent increase in mean annual flows concentrated in the winter and spring seasons.

  12. Modelling the effects of climate change on streamflow in a sub-basin of the lower Churchill River

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pryse-Phillips, Amy [Hatch Ltd., St John' s, (Canada); Snelgrove, Ken [Memorial University of Newfoundland, St John' s, (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    Climate change is likely to affect extreme flows as well as average flows. This is an important consideration for hydroelectric power producers. This paper presented the development of an approach to assess the impact of climate changes on seasonal and average annual river flows. The main goal was to investigate how climate change will affect the hydroelectric potential of the Lower Churchill Project using different combinations of emissions scenarios, climate model output and downscaling techniques. The setup and calibration of the numerical hydrological model, WATFLOOD, were performed as preliminary work for the Pinus River basin selected as study basin. Downscaled climate data from the North America change assessment program for both current and future climate periods were analysed. The calibrated model was used to simulate the current and future period streamflow scenarios. The results showed a 13 percent increase in mean annual flows concentrated in the winter and spring seasons.

  13. High-resolution integration of water, energy, and climate models to assess electricity grid vulnerabilities to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, M.; Macknick, J.; Tidwell, V. C.; Zagona, E. A.; Magee, T. M.; Bennett, K.; Middleton, R. S.

    2017-12-01

    The U.S. electricity sector depends on large amounts of water for hydropower generation and cooling thermoelectric power plants. Variability in water quantity and temperature due to climate change could reduce the performance and reliability of individual power plants and of the electric grid as a system. While studies have modeled water usage in power systems planning, few have linked grid operations with physical water constraints or with climate-induced changes in water resources to capture the role of the energy-water nexus in power systems flexibility and adequacy. In addition, many hydrologic and hydropower models have a limited representation of power sector water demands and grid interaction opportunities of demand response and ancillary services. A multi-model framework was developed to integrate and harmonize electricity, water, and climate models, allowing for high-resolution simulation of the spatial, temporal, and physical dynamics of these interacting systems. The San Juan River basin in the Southwestern U.S., which contains thermoelectric power plants, hydropower facilities, and multiple non-energy water demands, was chosen as a case study. Downscaled data from three global climate models and predicted regional water demand changes were implemented in the simulations. The Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model was used to project inflows, ambient air temperature, and humidity in the San Juan River Basin. Resulting river operations, water deliveries, water shortage sharing agreements, new water demands, and hydroelectricity generation at the basin-scale were estimated with RiverWare. The impacts of water availability and temperature on electric grid dispatch, curtailment, cooling water usage, and electricity generation cost were modeled in PLEXOS. Lack of water availability resulting from climate, new water demands, and shortage sharing agreements will require thermoelectric generators to drastically decrease power production, as much as 50

  14. Taking into account the impact of attrition on the assessment of response shift and true change: a multigroup structural equation modeling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verdam, Mathilde G. E.; Oort, Frans J.; van der Linden, Yvette M.; Sprangers, Mirjam A. G.

    2015-01-01

    Missing data due to attrition present a challenge for the assessment and interpretation of change and response shift in HRQL outcomes. The objective was to handle such missingness and to assess response shift and 'true change' with the use of an attrition-based multigroup structural equation

  15. Challenges of assessing fire and burn severity using field measures, remote sensing and modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penelope Morgan; Robert E. Keane; Gregory K. Dillon; Theresa B. Jain; Andrew T. Hudak; Eva C. Karau; Pamela G. Sikkink; Zachery A. Holden; Eva K. Strand

    2014-01-01

    Comprehensive assessment of ecological change after fires have burned forests and rangelands is important if we are to understand, predict and measure fire effects. We highlight the challenges in effective assessment of fire and burn severity in the field and using both remote sensing and simulation models. We draw on diverse recent research for guidance on assessing...

  16. Development of a model to assess orthostatic responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, Marilyn

    1993-01-01

    A major change for crewmembers during weightlessness in microgravity is the redistribution of body fluids from the legs into the abdomen, thorax, and head. The fluids continue to be sequestered in these areas throughout the flight. Upon reentry into gravity on landing, these same body fluids are displaced again to their normal locations, however, not without hazardous incidence to the crewmembers. The problem remains that upon landing, crewmembers are subject to orthostasis, that is, the blood flowing into the legs reduces the blood supply to the brain and may result in the crewmember fainting. The purpose of this study was to develop a model of testing orthostatic responses of blood pressure regulating mechanisms of the cardiovascular system, when challenged, to maintain blood pressure to the brain. To accomplish this, subjects' responses were assessed as they proceeded from the supine position of progressive head-up tilt positions of 30 deg, 60 deg, and 90 deg angles. A convenience sample consisted of 21 subjects, females (N=11) and males (N=10), selected from a list of potential subjects available through the NASA subject screening office. The methodology included all non-invasive measurements of blood pressure, heart rate, echocardiograms, cardiac output, cardiac stroke volume, fluid shifts in the thorax, ventricular ejection and velocity times, and skin blood perfusion. The Fischer statistical analysis was done of all data with the significance level at .05. Significant differences were demonstrated in many instances of changes of posture for all variables. Based on the significance of the findings of this study, this model for assessing orthostatic responses does provide an adequate challenge to the blood pressure regulatory systems. While individuals may use different adaptations to incremental changes in gravity, the subjects, in aggregate, demonstrated significant adaptive cardiovascular changes to orthostatic challenges which were presented to them.

  17. Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-06-01

    independent data from different disciplines. While some aspects have lower confidence this lack of confidence is handled by providing wider uncertainty ranges, bounding estimates and/or alternative models to repository engineering and long term safety assessment. It is judged that most, of the low confidence aspects have little impact on repository engineering design or for long-term safety. It may also be noted that the feedback requirements from SR-Can to the site modelling are now met in the completed site investigations, subject to levels of uncertainty that are viewed as acceptable. Only a few data points and a few types of data have been omitted from the modelling, mainly because they are judged less relevant and reliable than the data considered. Inclusion of data from outside the Laxemar subarea might have enhanced confidence in the regional model, but only at the locations of the data and these changes in confidence would have been of little significance in relation to implications for the local model area and would not, therefore, have been of any real significance to design or safety assessment. These omissions are judged to have little or no negative impact on confidence in the Laxemar subarea model. In fact, identification of unreliable data and their elimination should have a positive effect on confidence. Poor precision in the measured data is judged to have a limited impact on uncertainties in the site descriptive model, with the exceptions of interpretation and combination of borehole and outcrop fracture data and general uncertainties in sorption data

  18. Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2008-12-15

    independent data from different disciplines. While some aspects have lower confidence this lack of confidence is handled by providing wider uncertainty ranges, bounding estimates and/or alternative models to repository engineering and long term safety assessment. It is judged that most, of the low confidence aspects have little impact on repository engineering design or for long-term safety. It may also be noted that the feedback requirements from SR-Can to the site modelling are now met in the completed site investigations, subject to levels of uncertainty that are viewed as acceptable. Only a few data points and a few types of data have been omitted from the modelling, mainly because they are judged less relevant and reliable than the data considered. Inclusion of data from outside the Laxemar subarea might have enhanced confidence in the regional model, but only at the locations of the data and these changes in confidence would have been of little significance in relation to implications for the local model area and would not, therefore, have been of any real significance to design or safety assessment. These omissions are judged to have little or no negative impact on confidence in the Laxemar subarea model. In fact, identification of unreliable data and their elimination should have a positive effect on confidence. Poor precision in the measured data is judged to have a limited impact on uncertainties in the site descriptive model, with the exceptions of interpretation and combination of borehole and outcrop fracture data and general uncertainties in sorption data

  19. Integrated earth system dynamic modeling for life cycle impact assessment of ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbault, Damien; Rivière, Mylène; Rugani, Benedetto; Benetto, Enrico; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia

    2014-02-15

    Despite the increasing awareness of our dependence on Ecosystem Services (ES), Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) does not explicitly and fully assess the damages caused by human activities on ES generation. Recent improvements in LCIA focus on specific cause-effect chains, mainly related to land use changes, leading to Characterization Factors (CFs) at the midpoint assessment level. However, despite the complexity and temporal dynamics of ES, current LCIA approaches consider the environmental mechanisms underneath ES to be independent from each other and devoid of dynamic character, leading to constant CFs whose representativeness is debatable. This paper takes a step forward and is aimed at demonstrating the feasibility of using an integrated earth system dynamic modeling perspective to retrieve time- and scenario-dependent CFs that consider the complex interlinkages between natural processes delivering ES. The GUMBO (Global Unified Metamodel of the Biosphere) model is used to quantify changes in ES production in physical terms - leading to midpoint CFs - and changes in human welfare indicators, which are considered here as endpoint CFs. The interpretation of the obtained results highlights the key methodological challenges to be solved to consider this approach as a robust alternative to the mainstream rationale currently adopted in LCIA. Further research should focus on increasing the granularity of environmental interventions in the modeling tools to match current standards in LCA and on adapting the conceptual approach to a spatially-explicit integrated model. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Climate Change in Environmental Impact Assessment of Renewable Energy Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2012-01-01

    Many renewable energy projects are subject to EIA. However a question that surfaces is what use an impact assessment is when the project is ‘good for the environment’? One of the current topics receiving much attention in impact assessment is climate change and how this factor is integrated...... in impact assessments. This warrants the question: How do we assess the climate change related impacts of a project that inherently has a positive effect on climate? This paper is based on a document study of EIA reports from Denmark. The results show that climate change is included in most of the EIA...... reports reviewed, and that only climate change mitigation is in focus while adaptation is absent. Also the results point to focus on positive impacts, while the indirect negative impacts are less apparent. This leads to a discussion of the results in the light of the purpose of EIA....

  1. Hydro-economic modeling of water scarcity under global change: an application to the Gállego river basin (Spain)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Graveline, N.; Majone, B.; van Duinen, Rianne; Ansink, E.

    2014-01-01

    Integrated approaches are needed to assess the effects of global changes on the future state of water resources at regional scales. We develop a hydro-economic model of the Gállego catchment, Spain, to assess how global change and policy options affect the catchment’s water scarcity and the economic

  2. Drivers of Change in Managed Water Resources: Modeling the Impacts of Climate and Socioeconomic Changes Using the US Midwest as a Case Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Voisin, Nathalie; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.

    2016-08-01

    A global integrated assessment model including a water-demand model driven by socio-economics, is coupled in a one-way fashion with a land surface hydrology – routing – water resources management model. The integrated modeling framework is applied to the U.S. Upper Midwest (Missouri, Upper Mississippi, and Ohio) to advance understanding of the regional impacts of climate and socio-economic changes on integrated water resources. Implications for future flow regulation, water supply, and supply deficit are investigated using climate change projections with the B1 and A2 emission scenarios, which affect both natural flow and water demand. Changes in water demand are driven by socio-economic factors, energy and food demands, global markets and prices. The framework identifies the multiple spatial scales of interactions between the drivers of changes (natural flow and water demand) and the managed water resources (regulated flow, supply and supply deficit). The contribution of the different drivers of change are quantified regionally, and also evaluated locally, using covariances. The integrated framework shows that water supply deficit is more predictable over the Missouri than the other regions in the Midwest. The predictability of the supply deficit mostly comes from long term changes in water demand although changes in runoff has a greater contribution, comparable to the contribution of changes in demand, over shorter time periods. The integrated framework also shows that spatially, water demand drives local supply deficit. Using elasticity, the sensitivity of supply deficit to drivers of change is established. The supply deficit is found to be more sensitive to changes in runoff than to changes in demand regionally. It contrasts with the covariance analysis that shows that water demand is the dominant driver of supply deficit over the analysed periods. The elasticity indicates the level of mitigation needed to control the demand in order to reduce the

  3. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hansen, G.E.

    2015-01-01

    Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    Gerrit Hansen

    Global climate change is unequivocal, and greenhouse gas emissions continue rising despite international mitigation efforts. Hence whether and to what extent the impacts of human induced

  4. Cost Analysis of Water Transport for Climate Change Impact Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szaleniec, V.; Buytaert, W.

    2012-04-01

    It is expected that climate change will have a strong impact on water resources worldwide. Many studies exist that couple the output of global climate models with hydrological models to assess the impact of climate change on physical water availability. However, the water resources topology of many regions and especially that of cities can be very complex. Changes in physical water availability do therefore not translate easily into impacts on water resources for cities. This is especially the case for cities with a complex water supply topology, for instance because of geographical barriers, strong gradients in precipitation patterns, or competing water uses. In this study we explore the use of cost maps to enable the inclusion of water supply topologies in climate change impact studies. We use the city of Lima as a case study. Lima is the second largest desert city in the world. Although Peru as a whole has no water shortage, extreme gradients exist. Most of the economic activities including the city of Lima are located in the coastal desert. This region is geographically disconnected from the wet Amazon basin because of the Andes mountain range. Hence, water supply is precarious, provided by a complex combination of high mountain ecosystems including wetlands and glaciers, as well as groundwater aquifers depending on recharge from the mountains. We investigate the feasibility and costs of different water abstraction scenarios and the impact of climate change using cost functions for different resources. The option of building inter basins tunnels across the Andes is compared to the costs of desalinating seawater from the Pacific Ocean under different climate change scenarios and population growth scenarios. This approach yields recommendations for the most cost-effective options for the future.

  5. The modelling and assessment of whale-watching impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    New, Leslie; Hall, Ailsa J.; Harcourt, Robert; Kaufman, Greg; Parsons, E.C.M.; Pearson, Heidi C.; Cosentino, A. Mel; Schick, Robert S

    2015-01-01

    In recent years there has been significant interest in modelling cumulative effects and the population consequences of individual changes in cetacean behaviour and physiology due to disturbance. One potential source of disturbance that has garnered particular interest is whale-watching. Though perceived as ‘green’ or eco-friendly tourism, there is evidence that whale-watching can result in statistically significant and biologically meaningful changes in cetacean behaviour, raising the question whether whale-watching is in fact a long term sustainable activity. However, an assessment of the impacts of whale-watching on cetaceans requires an understanding of the potential behavioural and physiological effects, data to effectively address the question and suitable modelling techniques. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the viability of long-term whale-watching, as well as logistical limitations and potential opportunities. We conclude that an integrated, coordinated approach will be needed to further understanding of the possible effects of whale-watching on cetaceans.

  6. Improved data for integrated modeling of global environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2011-12-01

    The assessment of global environmental changes, their impact on human societies, and possible management options requires large-scale, integrated modeling efforts. These models have to link biophysical with socio-economic processes, and they have to take spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions into account. Land use change and freshwater use are two key research areas where spatial aggregation and the use of regional average numbers may lead to biased results. Useful insights can only be obtained if processes like economic globalization can be consistently linked to local environmental conditions and resource constraints (Lambin and Meyfroidt 2011). Spatially explicit modeling of environmental changes at the global scale has a long tradition in the natural sciences (Woodward et al 1995, Alcamo et al 1996, Leemans et al 1996). Socio-economic models with comparable spatial detail, e.g. on grid-based land use change, are much less common (Heistermann et al 2006), but are increasingly being developed (Popp et al 2011, Schneider et al 2011). Spatially explicit models require spatially explicit input data, which often constrains their development and application at the global scale. The amount and quality of available data on environmental conditions is growing fast—primarily due to improved earth observation methods. Moreover, systematic efforts for collecting and linking these data across sectors are on the way (www.earthobservations.org). This has, among others, also helped to provide consistent databases on different land cover and land use types (Erb et al 2007). However, spatially explicit data on specific anthropogenic driving forces of global environmental change are still scarce—also because these cannot be collected with satellites or other devices. The basic data on socio-economic driving forces, i.e. population density and wealth (measured as gross domestic product per capita), have been prepared for spatially explicit analyses (CIESIN, IFPRI

  7. Integrated impact assessment of climate and socio-economic change on dairy farms in a watershed in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paas, Wim; Kanellopoulos, Argyris; Ven, van de Gerrie; Reidsma, Pytrik

    2016-01-01

    Climate and socio-economic change will affect the land use and the economic viability of Dutch dairy farms. Explorations of future scenarios, which include different drivers and impacts, are needed to perform ex-ante policy assessment. This study uses a bio-economic farm model to assess impacts

  8. Probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts on durum wheat in the Mediterranean region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Ferrise

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the availability of multi-model ensemble prediction methods has permitted a shift from a scenario-based approach to a risk-based approach in assessing the effects of climate change. This provides more useful information to decision-makers who need probability estimates to assess the seriousness of the projected impacts.

    In this study, a probabilistic framework for evaluating the risk of durum wheat yield shortfall over the Mediterranean Basin has been exploited. An artificial neural network, trained to emulate the outputs of a process-based crop growth model, has been adopted to create yield response surfaces which are then overlaid with probabilistic projections of future temperature and precipitation changes in order to estimate probabilistic projections of future yields. The risk is calculated as the relative frequency of projected yields below a selected threshold.

    In contrast to previous studies, which suggest that the beneficial effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration over the next few decades would outweigh the detrimental effects of the early stages of climatic warming and drying, the results of this study are of greater concern.

  9. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  10. Assessing the sustainability of wheat-based cropping systems using APSIM: Model parameterisation and evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moeller, C.; Pala, M.; Manschadi, A.M.; Meinke, H.B.; Sauerborn, J.

    2007-01-01

    Assessing the sustainability of crop and soil management practices in wheat-based rotations requires a well-tested model with the demonstrated ability to sensibly predict crop productivity and changes in the soil resource. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) suite of models was

  11. Assessing uncertainty in mechanistic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwin J. Green; David W. MacFarlane; Harry T. Valentine

    2000-01-01

    Concern over potential global change has led to increased interest in the use of mechanistic models for predicting forest growth. The rationale for this interest is that empirical models may be of limited usefulness if environmental conditions change. Intuitively, we expect that mechanistic models, grounded as far as possible in an understanding of the biology of tree...

  12. The transparency, reliability and utility of tropical rainforest land-use and land-cover change models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Isabel M D; Ahmed, Sadia E; Ewers, Robert M

    2014-06-01

    Land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is one of the largest drivers of biodiversity loss and carbon emissions globally. We use the tropical rainforests of the Amazon, the Congo basin and South-East Asia as a case study to investigate spatial predictive models of LULC change. Current predictions differ in their modelling approaches, are highly variable and often poorly validated. We carried out a quantitative review of 48 modelling methodologies, considering model spatio-temporal scales, inputs, calibration and validation methods. In addition, we requested model outputs from each of the models reviewed and carried out a quantitative assessment of model performance for tropical LULC predictions in the Brazilian Amazon. We highlight existing shortfalls in the discipline and uncover three key points that need addressing to improve the transparency, reliability and utility of tropical LULC change models: (1) a lack of openness with regard to describing and making available the model inputs and model code; (2) the difficulties of conducting appropriate model validations; and (3) the difficulty that users of tropical LULC models face in obtaining the model predictions to help inform their own analyses and policy decisions. We further draw comparisons between tropical LULC change models in the tropics and the modelling approaches and paradigms in other disciplines, and suggest that recent changes in the climate change and species distribution modelling communities may provide a pathway that tropical LULC change modellers may emulate to further improve the discipline. Climate change models have exerted considerable influence over public perceptions of climate change and now impact policy decisions at all political levels. We suggest that tropical LULC change models have an equally high potential to influence public opinion and impact the development of land-use policies based on plausible future scenarios, but, to do that reliably may require further improvements in the

  13. AgMIP: Next Generation Models and Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.

    2014-12-01

    Next steps in developing next-generation crop models fall into several categories: significant improvements in simulation of important crop processes and responses to stress; extension from simplified crop models to complex cropping systems models; and scaling up from site-based models to landscape, national, continental, and global scales. Crop processes that require major leaps in understanding and simulation in order to narrow uncertainties around how crops will respond to changing atmospheric conditions include genetics; carbon, temperature, water, and nitrogen; ozone; and nutrition. The field of crop modeling has been built on a single crop-by-crop approach. It is now time to create a new paradigm, moving from 'crop' to 'cropping system.' A first step is to set up the simulation technology so that modelers can rapidly incorporate multiple crops within fields, and multiple crops over time. Then the response of these more complex cropping systems can be tested under different sustainable intensification management strategies utilizing the updated simulation environments. Model improvements for diseases, pests, and weeds include developing process-based models for important diseases, frameworks for coupling air-borne diseases to crop models, gathering significantly more data on crop impacts, and enabling the evaluation of pest management strategies. Most smallholder farming in the world involves integrated crop-livestock systems that cannot be represented by crop modeling alone. Thus, next-generation cropping system models need to include key linkages to livestock. Livestock linkages to be incorporated include growth and productivity models for grasslands and rangelands as well as the usual annual crops. There are several approaches for scaling up, including use of gridded models and development of simpler quasi-empirical models for landscape-scale analysis. On the assessment side, AgMIP is leading a community process for coordinated contributions to IPCC AR6

  14. Financial Effect of a Drug Distribution Model Change on a Health System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turingan, Erin M; Mekoba, Bijan C; Eberwein, Samuel M; Roberts, Patricia A; Pappas, Ashley L; Cruz, Jennifer L; Amerine, Lindsey B

    2017-06-01

    Background: Drug manufacturers change distribution models based on patient safety and product integrity needs. These model changes can limit health-system access to medications, and the financial impact on health systems can be significant. Objective: The primary aim of this study was to determine the health-system financial impact of a manufacturer's change from open to limited distribution for bevacizumab (Avastin), rituximab (Rituxan), and trastuzumab (Herceptin). The secondary aim was to identify opportunities to shift administration to outpatient settings to support formulary change. Methods: To assess the financial impact on the health system, the cost minus discount was applied to total drug expenditure during a 1-year period after the distribution model change. The opportunity analysis was conducted for three institutions within the health system through chart review of each inpatient administration. Opportunity cost was the sum of the inpatient administration cost and outpatient administration margin. Results: The total drug expenditure for the study period was $26 427 263. By applying the cost minus discount, the financial effect of the distribution model change was $1 393 606. A total of 387 administrations were determined to be opportunities to be shifted to the outpatient setting. During the study period, the total opportunity cost was $1 766 049. Conclusion: Drug expenditure increased for the health system due to the drug distribution model change and loss of cost minus discount. The opportunity cost of shifting inpatient administrations could offset the increase in expenditure. It is recommended to restrict bevacizumab, rituximab, and trastuzumab through Pharmacy & Therapeutics Committees to outpatient use where clinically appropriate.

  15. Tools for Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Wildfire Regimes in Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hety Herawati

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Fire is an intrinsic element of many forest ecosystems; it shapes their ecological processes, determines species composition and influences landscape structure. However, wildfires may: have undesirable effects on biodiversity and vegetation coverage; produce carbon emissions to the atmosphere; release smoke affecting human health; and cause loss of lives and property. There have been increasing concerns about the potential impacts of climate variability and change on forest fires. Climate change can alter factors that influence the occurrence of fire ignitions, fuel availability and fuel flammability. This review paper aims to identify tools and methods used for gathering information about the impacts of climate variability and change on forest fires, forest fuels and the probability of fires. Tools to assess the impacts of climate variability and change on forest fires include: remote sensing, dynamic global vegetation and landscape models, integrated fire-vegetation models, fire danger rating systems, empirical models and fire behavior models. This review outlines each tool in terms of its characteristics, spatial and temporal resolution, limitations and applicability of the results. To enhance and improve tool performance, each must be continuously tested in all types of forest ecosystems.

  16. Association between changes on the Negative Symptom Assessment scale (NSA-16) and measures of functional outcome in schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velligan, Dawn I; Alphs, Larry; Lancaster, Scott; Morlock, Robert; Mintz, Jim

    2009-09-30

    We examined whether changes in negative symptoms, as measured by scores on the 16-item Negative Symptom Assessment scale (NSA-16), were associated with changes in functional outcome. A group of 125 stable outpatients with schizophrenia were assessed at baseline and at 6 months using the NSA-16, the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale, and multiple measures of functional outcome. Baseline adjusted regression coefficients indicated moderate correlations between negative symptoms and functional outcomes when baseline values of both variables were controlled. Results were nearly identical when we controlled for positive symptoms. Cross-lag panel correlations and Structural Equation Modeling were used to examine whether changes in negative symptoms drove changes in functional outcomes over time. Results indicated that negative symptoms drove the changes in the Social and Occupational Functioning Scale (SOFAS) rather than the reverse. Measures of Quality of Life and measures of negative symptoms may be assessing overlapping constructs or changes in both may be driven by a third variable. Negative symptoms were unrelated over time to scores on a performance-based measure of functional capacity. This study indicates that the relationship between negative symptom change and the change in functional outcomes is complex, and points to potential issues in selection of assessments.

  17. Personality change following head injury: assessment with the NEO Five-Factor Inventory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lannoo, E; de Deyne, C; Colardyn, F; de Soete, G; Jannes, C

    1997-11-01

    We evaluated personality change following head injury in 68 patients at 6 months postinjury using the NEO Five-Factor Inventory to assess the five personality dimensions of the Five-Factor Model of Personality. All items had to be rated twice, once for the preinjury and once for the current status. Twenty-eight trauma patients with injuries to other parts of the body than the head were used as controls. For the head-injured group, 63 relatives also completed the questionnaire. The results showed no differences between the ratings of head-injured patients and the ratings of trauma control patients. Both groups showed significant change in the personality dimensions Neuroticism, Extraversion, and Conscientiousness. Compared to their relatives, head-injured patients report a smaller change in Extraversion and Conscientiousness. Changes were not reported on the Openness and Agreeableness scales, by neither the head-injured or their relatives, nor by the trauma controls.

  18. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-08-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining

  19. Assessing Land Use Change and Its Impact on Ecosystem Services in Northern Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunsanee Arunyawat

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Ecosystem services are highly vulnerable to a number of impacts due to the complex effects of human use of natural resources and subsequent land use change. Assessment of the impact of change in land use with respect to ecosystem services is necessary in order to implement appropriate land uses that enhance ecosystem services. This study analysed the impact of change in land use on ecosystem services using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST model to map and quantify a set of ecosystem services, namely sediment retention, water yield, carbon stock, and habitat quality, in northern Thailand, which has experienced substantial policy induced land use change. The study also assessed the changes in land use from 1989 to 2013 and their impact on overall ecosystem services using GIS. Increased rubber plantation cultivation and built-up areas resulting in reduced forest cover were the major changes found in land use in the area. The results of the study show a general decrease in ecosystem services for the study period in the watershed, in particular, a negative impact on ecosystem services was observed in agricultural areas. The study findings on spatial and temporal distribution of ecosystem services can help guide the development of appropriate land use options to enhance ecosystem services.

  20. A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Fuchs

    2018-05-01

    an empirical database for land change dynamics that can be applied in Earth system models and integrated assessment models.

  1. Multi-Model Assessment of Global Hydropower and Cooling Water Discharge Potential Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, M. T. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Eisener, S.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2016-01-01

    Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971-2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18-33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11-14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socioeconomic

  2. Modeling the uncertain impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liebetrau, A.M.

    1992-08-01

    Human and earth systems are extremely complex processes. The modeling of these systems to assess the effects of climate change is an activity fraught with uncertainty. System models typically involve the linking of a series of computer codes, each of which is a detailed model of some physical or social process in its own right. In such system models, the output from one process model is the input to another. Traditional methods for dealing with uncertainty are inadequate because of the sheer complexity of the modeling effort: Monte Carlo methods and the exhaustive evaluation of ''what if?'' scenarios estimate sensitivities fail because of the heavy computational burden. More efficient methods are required for learning about system models that are constructed from a collection of computer codes. A two-tiered modeling approach is being developed to estimate the distribution of outcomes from a series of nested models. The basic strategy is to develop a simplified executive, or simplified system code (SSC), that is analogous to the more complex underlying code. An essential feature of the SSC is that it uses information abstracted from the detailed underlying process codes in a manner that preserves their essential features and interactions among them. Of course, to be useful, the SSC must be much faster to run than its complex counterpart. The success of the SSC modeling strategy depends on the methods used to extract essential features of the complex underlying codes

  3. Economic impacts of climate change. Flooding and salinity in scenarios, models and cases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jonkhoff, W.; Koops, O.; Van der Krogt, R.; Oude Essink, G.; Rietveld, E.

    2008-07-01

    In this report, climatic and economic scenarios are combined and future risks are calculated for the consequences of climate change, such as a rising sea level, flooding, extreme draughts and salinity. The calculation of these economic effects of climate change are based on climate scenarios of the KNMI (Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute), TNO's RAEM model (Spatial General Economic Model), the high tide information system of the Dutch Ministry of Waterways and Public Works and the Space scanner of the Environmental Assessment Agency. Next to information on scenarios and models, this report also addresses damage calculations of flooding near Lopik and Ter Heide. The report ends with policy recommendations for adaptation policy. [mk] [nl

  4. Twenty first century climate change as simulated by European climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cubasch, Ulrich

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Climate change simulation results for seven European state-of-the-art climate models, participating in the European research project ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts), will be presented. Models from Norway, France, Germany, Denmark, and Great Britain, representing a sub-ensemble of the models contributing to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), are included. Climate simulations are conducted with all the models for present-day climate and for future climate under the SRES A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios. The design of the simulations follows the guidelines of the IPCC AR4. The 21st century projections are compared to the corresponding present-day simulations. The ensemble mean global mean near surface temperature rise for the year 2099 compared to the 1961-1990 period amounts to 3.2Kforthe A1B scenario, to 4.1 K for the A2 scenario, and to 2.1 K for the B1 scenario. The spatial patterns of temperature change are robust among the contributing models with the largest temperature increase over the Arctic in boreal winter, stronger warming overland than over ocean, and little warming over the southern oceans. The ensemble mean globally averaged precipitation increases for the three scenarios (5.6%, 5.7%, and 3.8% for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1, respectively). The precipitation signals of the different models display a larger spread than the temperature signals. In general, precipitation increases in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the mid- to high latitudes (most pronounced during the hemispheric winter) and decreases in the subtropics. Sea-level pressure decreases over the polar regions in all models and all scenarios, which is mainly compensated by a pressure increase in the subtropical highs. These changes imply an intensification of the Southern and Northern Annular Modes

  5. Choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snover, Amy K; Mantua, Nathan J; Littell, Jeremy S; Alexander, Michael A; McClure, Michelle M; Nye, Janet

    2013-12-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment. Selección y Uso de Escenarios de Cambio Climático para Estudios de Impacto Ecológico y Decisiones de Conservación. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  6. The Association of Unintentional Changes in Weight, Body Composition, and Homeostasis Model Assessment Index with Glycemic Progression in Non-Diabetic Healthy Subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eun-Jung Rhee

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundWe performed a retrospective longitudinal study on the effects of changes in weight, body composition, and homeostasis model assessment (HOMA indices on glycemic progression in subjects without diabetes during a four-year follow-up period in a community cohort without intentional intervention.MethodsFrom 28,440 non-diabetic subjects who participated in a medical check-up program in 2004, data on anthropometric and metabolic parameters were obtained after four years in 2008. Body composition analyses were performed with a bioelectrical impedance analyzer. Skeletal muscle index (SMI, % was calculated with lean mass/weight×100. Subjects were divided into three groups according to weight change status in four years: weight loss (≤-5.0%, stable weight (-5.0 to 5.0%, weight gain (≥5.0%. Progressors were defined as the subjects who progressed to impaired fasting glucose or diabetes.ResultsProgressors showed worse baseline metabolic profiles compared with non-progressors. In logistic regression analyses, the increase in changes of HOMA-insulin resistance (HOMA-IR in four years presented higher odds ratios for glycemic progression compared with other changes during that period. Among the components of body composition, a change in waist-hip ratio was the strongest predictor, and SMI change in four years was a significant negative predictor for glycemic progression. Changes in HOMA β-cell function in four years was a negative predictor for glycemic progression.ConclusionIncreased interval changes in HOMA-IR, weight gain and waist-hip ratio was associated with glycemic progression during a four-year period without intentional intervention in non-diabetic Korean subjects.

  7. An AgMIP framework for improved agricultural representation in integrated assessment models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Asseng, Senthold; Boote, Kenneth J.; Elliott, Joshua; Ewert, Frank; Jones, James W.; Martre, Pierre; McDermid, Sonali P.; Müller, Christoph; Snyder, Abigail; Thorburn, Peter J.

    2017-12-01

    Integrated assessment models (IAMs) hold great potential to assess how future agricultural systems will be shaped by socioeconomic development, technological innovation, and changing climate conditions. By coupling with climate and crop model emulators, IAMs have the potential to resolve important agricultural feedback loops and identify unintended consequences of socioeconomic development for agricultural systems. Here we propose a framework to develop robust representation of agricultural system responses within IAMs, linking downstream applications with model development and the coordinated evaluation of key climate responses from local to global scales. We survey the strengths and weaknesses of protocol-based assessments linked to the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), each utilizing multiple sites and models to evaluate crop response to core climate changes including shifts in carbon dioxide concentration, temperature, and water availability, with some studies further exploring how climate responses are affected by nitrogen levels and adaptation in farm systems. Site-based studies with carefully calibrated models encompass the largest number of activities; however they are limited in their ability to capture the full range of global agricultural system diversity. Representative site networks provide more targeted response information than broadly-sampled networks, with limitations stemming from difficulties in covering the diversity of farming systems. Global gridded crop models provide comprehensive coverage, although with large challenges for calibration and quality control of inputs. Diversity in climate responses underscores that crop model emulators must distinguish between regions and farming system while recognizing model uncertainty. Finally, to bridge the gap between bottom-up and top-down approaches we recommend the deployment of a hybrid climate response system employing a representative network of sites to bias

  8. Alternative Parameterization of the 3-PG Model for Loblolly Pine: A Regional Validation and Climate Change Assessment on Stand Productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, J.; Gonzalez-Benecke, C. A.; Teskey, R. O.; Martin, T.; Jokela, E. J.

    2015-12-01

    Loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) is one of the fastest growing pine species. It has been planted on more than 10 million ha in the southeastern U.S., and also been introduced into many countries. Using data from the literature and long-term productivity studies, we re-parameterized the 3-PG model for loblolly pine stands. We developed new functions for estimating NPP allocation dynamics, canopy cover and needlefall dynamics, effects of frost on production, density-independent and density-dependent tree mortality, biomass pools at variable starting ages, and the fertility rating. New functions to estimate merchantable volume partitioning were also included, allowing for economic analyses. The fertility rating was determined as a function of site index (mean height of dominant trees at age=25 years). We used the largest and most geographically extensive validation dataset for this species ever used (91 pots in 12 states in U.S. and 10 plots in Uruguay). Comparison of modeled to measured data showed robust agreement across the natural range in the U.S., as well as in Uruguay, where the species is grown as an exotic. Using the new set of functions and parameters with downscaled projections from twenty different climate models, the model was applied to assess the impact of future climate change scenarios on stand productivity in the southeastern U.S.

  9. Dynamic model based on Bayesian method for energy security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Augutis, Juozas; Krikštolaitis, Ričardas; Pečiulytė, Sigita; Žutautaitė, Inga

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Methodology for dynamic indicator model construction and forecasting of indicators. • Application of dynamic indicator model for energy system development scenarios. • Expert judgement involvement using Bayesian method. - Abstract: The methodology for the dynamic indicator model construction and forecasting of indicators for the assessment of energy security level is presented in this article. An indicator is a special index, which provides numerical values to important factors for the investigated area. In real life, models of different processes take into account various factors that are time-dependent and dependent on each other. Thus, it is advisable to construct a dynamic model in order to describe these dependences. The energy security indicators are used as factors in the dynamic model. Usually, the values of indicators are obtained from statistical data. The developed dynamic model enables to forecast indicators’ variation taking into account changes in system configuration. The energy system development is usually based on a new object construction. Since the parameters of changes of the new system are not exactly known, information about their influences on indicators could not be involved in the model by deterministic methods. Thus, dynamic indicators’ model based on historical data is adjusted by probabilistic model with the influence of new factors on indicators using the Bayesian method

  10. A simple integrated assessment approach to global change simulation and evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogutu, Keroboto; D'Andrea, Fabio; Ghil, Michael

    2016-04-01

    We formulate and study the Coupled Climate-Economy-Biosphere (CoCEB) model, which constitutes the basis of our idealized integrated assessment approach to simulating and evaluating global change. CoCEB is composed of a physical climate module, based on Earth's energy balance, and an economy module that uses endogenous economic growth with physical and human capital accumulation. A biosphere model is likewise under study and will be coupled to the existing two modules. We concentrate on the interactions between the two subsystems: the effect of climate on the economy, via damage functions, and the effect of the economy on climate, via a control of the greenhouse gas emissions. Simple functional forms of the relation between the two subsystems permit simple interpretations of the coupled effects. The CoCEB model is used to make hypotheses on the long-term effect of investment in emission abatement, and on the comparative efficacy of different approaches to abatement, in particular by investing in low carbon technology, in deforestation reduction or in carbon capture and storage (CCS). The CoCEB model is very flexible and transparent, and it allows one to easily formulate and compare different functional representations of climate change mitigation policies. Using different mitigation measures and their cost estimates, as found in the literature, one is able to compare these measures in a coherent way.

  11. Assessing climate impact on reinforced concrete durability with a multi-physics model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michel, Alexander; Flint, Madeleine M.

    to shorter-term fluctuations in boundary conditions and therefore may underestimate climate change impacts. A highly sensitive fully-coupled, validated, multi-physics model for heat, moisture and ion transport and corrosion was used to assess a reinforced concrete structure located in coastal Norfolk...

  12. Developing a tuberculosis transmission model that accounts for changes in population health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oxlade, Olivia; Schwartzman, Kevin; Benedetti, Andrea; Pai, Madhukar; Heymann, Jody; Menzies, Dick

    2011-01-01

    Simulation models are useful in policy planning for tuberculosis (TB) control. To accurately assess interventions, important modifiers of the epidemic should be accounted for in evaluative models. Improvements in population health were associated with the declining TB epidemic in the pre-antibiotic era and may be relevant today. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a TB transmission model that accounted for changes in population health. We developed a deterministic TB transmission model, using reported data from the pre-antibiotic era in England. Change in adjusted life expectancy, used as a proxy for general health, was used to determine the rate of change of key epidemiological parameters. Predicted outcomes included risk of TB infection and TB mortality. The model was validated in the setting of the Netherlands and then applied to modern Peru. The model, developed in the setting of England, predicted TB trends in the Netherlands very accurately. The R(2) value for correlation between observed and predicted data was 0.97 and 0.95 for TB infection and mortality, respectively. In Peru, the predicted decline in incidence prior to the expansion of "Directly Observed Treatment Short Course" (The DOTS strategy) was 3.7% per year (observed = 3.9% per year). After DOTS expansion, the predicted decline was very similar to the observed decline of 5.8% per year. We successfully developed and validated a TB model, which uses a proxy for population health to estimate changes in key epidemiology parameters. Population health contributed significantly to improvement in TB outcomes observed in Peru. Changing population health should be incorporated into evaluative models for global TB control.

  13. Climate Change and Environmental assessments: Issues in an African Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dalfelt, Arne; Naess, Lars Otto

    1997-12-31

    The present report discusses the potential for integrating climate change issues into environmental assessments of development actions, with an emphasis on sub-Sahara Africa. The study is motivated by the fact that future climate change could have significant adverse impacts on the natural and socio-economic environment in Africa. Yet, to date global change issues, including climate change, have been largely overlooked in the process of improving environmental assessment procedures and methodologies. It is argued that although emissions of greenhouse gases in Africa are negligible today, it is highly relevant to include this aspect in the planning of long-term development strategies. The report discusses potential areas of conflicts and synergies between climate change and development goals. The general conclusion is that environmental assessments could be an appropriate tool for addressing climate change issues, while there are still several obstacles to its practical implementation. Four priority areas are suggested for further work: (1) Environmental accounting, (2) harmonization and standard-setting, (3) implementation, and (4) risk management. 82 refs., 5 figs., 11 tabs.

  14. Land Use Change Modelling in R

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moulds, S.; Buytaert, W.

    2014-12-01

    Land use activities, through the provision of natural resources, are essential to human existence. In many regions land use change is degrading biodiversity and threatening the sustainability of ecosystem services upon which communities and livelihoods depend. Spatially explicit land use change models are widely used to understand and quantify key processes that affect land use change and make predictions about past and future change. These models typically include a module to estimate the suitability of different locations to particular land use types based on biophysical and socioeconomic predictor variables and a module to allocate change spatially. They are commonly implemented in languages such as C/C++ and Fortran and made available as standalone applications or through proprietary GIS. In many cases the models are released under closed source licences, limiting the reproducibility of scientific results and making model comparison difficult. This work presents a new R package providing methods and classes to support land use change modelling and model development and comparison within the open source R statistical computing environment. The package makes use of existing R implementations of methods such as random forests and recursive partitioning and regression trees to estimate location suitability, as well as providing methods for statistical model building and evaluation. Currently two spatial allocation methods are provided: the first based on the widely used and tested CLUE-S algorithm and the second a novel stochastic procedure developed for large scale applications. Some common tools for evaluating allocation results are implemented. It is hoped that the package will provide a framework for the development of new routines that can be incorporated into future releases of the code.

  15. Verbal Bullying Changes Among Students Following an Educational Intervention Using the Integrated Model for Behavior Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naidoo, Saloshni; Satorius, Benn K; de Vries, Hein; Taylor, Myra

    2016-11-01

    Bullying behavior in schools can lead to psychosocial problems. School-based interventions are important in raising student awareness, developing their skills and in planning to reduce bullying behavior. A randomized controlled trial, using a school-based educational intervention to reduce verbal bullying, was conducted among grade 10 students in 16 urban and rural schools in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa in 2013. Baseline and postintervention questionnaires, developed using the Integrated Model for Behavior Change theoretical model, were used to assess changes in verbal bullying. Postintervention there were reduced verbal bullying experiences. Improved social norms and awareness of verbal bullying were associated with reduced verbal bullying experiences and behavior. Although less likely to bully others verbally, girls were more likely to experience verbal bullying. Students with no living father were more likely to bully others verbally. The study findings indicate that a school-based intervention can positively impact on verbal bullying experiences and behavior. © 2016, American School Health Association.

  16. Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Reservoir Inflows Using Multi Climate-Models under RCPs—The Case of Mangla Dam in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Babur

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Assessment of climate change on reservoir inflow is important for water and power stressed countries. Projected climate is subject to uncertainties related to climate change scenarios and Global Circulation Models (GCMs. This paper discusses the consequences of climate change on discharge. Historical climatic and gauging data were collected from different stations within a watershed. Bias correction was performed on GCMs temperature and precipitation data. After successful development of the hydrological modeling system (SWAT for the basin, streamflow was simulated for three future periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100 and compared with the baseline data (1981–2010 to explore the changes in different flow indicators such as mean flow, low flow, median flow, high flow, flow duration curves, temporal shift in peaks, and temporal shifts in center-of-volume dates. From the results obtained, an overall increase in mean annual flow was projected in the basin under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Winter and spring showed a noticeable increase in streamflow, while summer and autumn showed a decrease in streamflow. High flows were predicted to increase, but median flow was projected to decrease in the future under both scenarios. Flow duration curves showed that the probability of occurrence of high flow is likely to be more in the future. It was also noted that peaks were predicted to shift from May to July in the future, and the center-of-volume date of the annual flow may vary from −11 to 23 days in the basin, under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. As a whole, the Mangla basin will face more floods and less droughts in the future due to the projected increase in high and low flows, decrease in median flows and greater temporal and magnitudinal variations in peak flows. These outcomes suggest that it is important to consider the influence of climate change on water resources to frame appropriate guidelines for planning and management.

  17. A Monte Carlo Approach to Modeling Wildfire Risk on Changing Landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burzynski, A. M.; Beavers, A.

    2016-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) maintains approximately 28 million acres of land across 420 of their largest installations. These sites harbored 425 federally listed Threatened and Endangered species as of 2013, representing a density of rare species that is several times greater than any other land management agency in the U.S. This is a major driver of DoD natural resources policy and many of these species are affected by wildland fire, both positively and negatively. Military installations collectively experience thousands of wildfires per year, and the majority of ignitions are caused by mission and training activities that can be planned to accommodate fire risk. Motivated by the need for accurately modeled wildfire under the unique land-use conditions of military installations and the assessment of risk exposure at installations throughout the U.S., we developed custom, FARSITE-based scientific software that applies a Monte Carlo approach to wildfire risk analysis. This simulation accounts for the dynamics of vegetation and weather over time, as well as the spatial and temporal distribution of wildfire ignitions, and can be applied to landscapes up to several million acres in size. The data-driven simulation provides insight that feeds directly into mitigation decision-making and can be used to assess future risk scenarios, both real and hypothetical. We highlight an example of a future scenario comparing wildfire behavior between unmitigated fuels and one in which a prescribed burn program is implemented. The same process can be used for a variety of scenarios including changes in vegetation (e.g. new or altered grazing regimes, extreme weather, or drought) and changes in spatiotemporal ignition probability. The modeling capabilities that we apply to predicting wildfire risk on military lands are also relevant to the greater scientific community for modeling wildland fire in the context of environmental change, historical ecology, or climate change.

  18. How reliably can climate change and mitigation policy impacts on electric utilities be assessed?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Kopp, R.J.; Palmer, K.; De Witt, D.

    1993-01-01

    Numerous mechanisms link climate change and electric utilities. Electricity generation releases radiatively active trace substances (RATS). Significant changes in atmospheric concentration of RATS can lead to a change in regional and global climate regimes. Mitigation action designed to prevent or limit climate change is possible through curbing emissions. Climate change and related mitigation actions impact on electric utilities. Foresight in electric utility planning requires reliable predictions of how the utilities may be affected in the decades ahead. In this paper the impacts of climate change and mitigation policies are noted, and our ability to assess these is reviewed. To this end a suite of models exploring supply and demand questions have been developed. The overall conclusion of the study is that the demand-side uncertainties dominate other unknowns and need to be better characterized and understood. (author)

  19. Climate change and landscape development in post-closure safety assessment of solid radioactive waste disposal: Results of an initiative of the IAEA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindborg, T; Thorne, M; Andersson, E; Becker, J; Brandefelt, J; Cabianca, T; Gunia, M; Ikonen, A T K; Johansson, E; Kangasniemi, V; Kautsky, U; Kirchner, G; Klos, R; Kowe, R; Kontula, A; Kupiainen, P; Lahdenperä, A-M; Lord, N S; Lunt, D J; Näslund, J-O; Nordén, M; Norris, S; Pérez-Sánchez, D; Proverbio, A; Riekki, K; Rübel, A; Sweeck, L; Walke, R; Xu, S; Smith, G; Pröhl, G

    2018-03-01

    The International Atomic Energy Agency has coordinated an international project addressing climate change and landscape development in post-closure safety assessments of solid radioactive waste disposal. The work has been supported by results of parallel on-going research that has been published in a variety of reports and peer reviewed journal articles. The project is due to be described in detail in a forthcoming IAEA report. Noting the multi-disciplinary nature of post-closure safety assessments, here, an overview of the work is given to provide researchers in the broader fields of radioecology and radiological safety assessment with a review of the work that has been undertaken. It is hoped that such dissemination will support and promote integrated understanding and coherent treatment of climate change and landscape development within an overall assessment process. The key activities undertaken in the project were: identification of the key processes that drive environmental change (mainly those associated with climate and climate change), and description of how a relevant future may develop on a global scale; development of a methodology for characterising environmental change that is valid on a global scale, showing how modelled global changes in climate can be downscaled to provide information that may be needed for characterising environmental change in site-specific assessments, and illustrating different aspects of the methodology in a number of case studies that show the evolution of site characteristics and the implications for the dose assessment models. Overall, the study has shown that quantitative climate and landscape modelling has now developed to the stage that it can be used to define an envelope of climate and landscape change scenarios at specific sites and under specific greenhouse-gas emissions assumptions that is suitable for use in quantitative post-closure performance assessments. These scenarios are not predictions of the future, but

  20. Biotic interactions in the face of climate change: a comparison of three modelling approaches.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anja Jaeschke

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter biotic interactions, and may lead to temporal and spatial mismatches of interacting species. Although the importance of interactions for climate change risk assessments is increasingly acknowledged in observational and experimental studies, biotic interactions are still rarely incorporated in species distribution models. We assessed the potential impacts of climate change on the obligate interaction between Aeshna viridis and its egg-laying plant Stratiotes aloides in Europe, based on an ensemble modelling technique. We compared three different approaches for incorporating biotic interactions in distribution models: (1 We separately modelled each species based on climatic information, and intersected the future range overlap ('overlap approach'. (2 We modelled the potential future distribution of A. viridis with the projected occurrence probability of S. aloides as further predictor in addition to climate ('explanatory variable approach'. (3 We calibrated the model of A. viridis in the current range of S. aloides and multiplied the future occurrence probabilities of both species ('reference area approach'. Subsequently, all approaches were compared to a single species model of A. viridis without interactions. All approaches projected a range expansion for A. viridis. Model performance on test data and amount of range gain differed depending on the biotic interaction approach. All interaction approaches yielded lower range gains (up to 667% lower than the model without interaction. Regarding the contribution of algorithm and approach to the overall uncertainty, the main part of explained variation stems from the modelling algorithm, and only a small part is attributed to the modelling approach. The comparison of the no-interaction model with the three interaction approaches emphasizes the importance of including obligate biotic interactions in projective species distribution modelling. We recommend the use of

  1. Frameworks for change in healthcare organisations: a formative evaluation of the NHS Change Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Graham P; Sutton, Elizabeth; Willars, Janet; Dixon-Woods, Mary

    2013-08-01

    Organisational change in complex healthcare systems is a multifaceted process. The English National Health Service recently introduced a 'Change Model' that seeks to offer an evidence-based framework for guiding change. We report findings from a formative evaluation of the NHS Change Model and make recommendations for those developing the Model and its users. The evaluation involved 28 interviews with managers and clinicians making use of the Change Model in relation to a variety of projects. Interviews were fully transcribed and were analysed using an approach based on the Framework method. Participants saw the Change Model as valuable and practically useful. Fidelity to core principles of the Model was variable: participants often altered the Model, especially when using it to orchestrate the work of others. In challenging organisational contexts, the Change Model was sometimes used to delegitimise opposition rather than identify shared purpose among different interest groups. Those guiding change may benefit from frameworks, guidance and toolkits to structure and inform their planning and activities. Participants' experiences suggested the Change Model has much potential. Further work on its design and on supporting materials may optimise the approach, but its utility rests in particular on organisational cultures that support faithful application. © The Author(s) 2013 Reprints and permissions:]br]sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  2. Particulate Matter and Health Risk under a Changing Climate: Assessment for Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Dias

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The potential impacts of climate-induced changes in air pollution levels and its impacts on population health were investigated. The IPCC scenario (SRES A2 was used to analyse the effects of climate on future PM10 concentrations over Portugal and their impact on short-term population exposure and mortality. The air quality modelling system has been applied with high spatial resolution looking on climate changes at regional scale. To quantify health impacts related to air pollution changes, the WHO methodology for health impact assessment was implemented. The results point to 8% increase of premature mortality attributed to future PM10 levels in Portugal. The pollution episodes with daily average PM10 concentration above the current legislated value (50 μg·m−3 would be responsible for 81% of attributable cases. The absolute number of deaths attributable to PM10 under future climate emphasizes the importance of indirect effects of climate change on human health.

  3. Disentangling the change-alliance relationship: Observational assessment of the therapeutic alliance during change and stuck episodes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellado, Augusto; Suárez, Nicolás; Altimir, Carolina; Martínez, Claudio; Pérez, Janet; Krause, Mariane; Horvath, Adam

    2017-09-01

    The therapeutic alliance is considered the most robust process variable associated with positive therapeutic outcome in a variety of psychotherapeutic models [Alexander, L. B., & Luborsky, L. (1986). The Penn Helping Alliance Scales. In L. S. Greenberg & W. M. Pinsoff (Eds.), The psychotherapeutic process: A research handbook (pp. 325-356). New York: Guilford Press; Horvath, A. O., Gaston, L., & Luborsky, L. (1993). The alliance as predictor of benefits of counseling and therapy. In N. Miller, L. Luborsky, J. Barber, & J. P. Docherty (Eds.), Psychodynamic treatment research: A handbook for clinical practice (pp. 247-274). New York, NY: Basic Books; Horvath, A. O., Del Re, A. C., Flückiger, C., & Symonds, D. (2011). Alliance in individual psychotherapy. Psychotherapy, 48, 9-16; Orlinky, D., Grawe, K., & Parks, B. (1994). Process and outcome in psychotherapy: Noch einmal. In A. Bergin & J. S. Garfield (Eds.), Handbook of psychotherapy and behaviour change (4th ed., pp. 270-378). New York, NY: Wiley and Sons]. The relationship between alliance and outcome has traditionally been studied based on measures that assess these therapy factors at a global level. However, the specific variations of the alliance process and their association with therapy segments that are relevant for change have not yet been fully examined. The present study examines the variations in the therapeutic alliance in 73 significant in-session events: 35 change and 38 stuck episodes identified through the observation of 14 short-term therapies of different theoretical orientations. Variations in the alliance were assessed using the VTAS-SF [Shelef, K., & Diamond, G. (2008). Short form of the revised Vanderbilt Therapeutic Alliance Scale: Development, reliability, and validity. Psychotherapy Research, 18, 433-443]. Nested analyses (HLM) indicate a statistically significant better quality of the alliance during change episodes.

  4. Taking the uncertainty in climate-change vulnerability assessment seriously

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patt, A.; Patt, A.; Klein, R.J.T.; Vega-Leinert, A. de la

    2005-01-01

    Climate-change vulnerability assessment has become a frequently employed tool, with the purpose of informing policy-makers attempting to adapt to global change conditions. However, we suggest that there are three reasons to suspect that vulnerability assessment often promises more certainty, and more useful results, than it can deliver. First, the complexity of the system it purports to describe is greater than that described by other types of assessment. Second, it is difficult, if not impossible, to obtain data to test proposed interactions between different vulnerability drivers. Third, the time scale of analysis is too long to be able to make robust projections about future adaptive capacity. We analyze the results from a stakeholder workshop in a European vulnerability assessment, and find evidence to support these arguments. (authors)

  5. A comparative review of multi-risk modelling methodologies for climate change adaptation in mountain regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terzi, Stefano; Torresan, Silvia; Schneiderbauer, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    Keywords: Climate change, mountain regions, multi-risk assessment, climate change adaptation. Climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on the environment, the economy and society. Adaptation actions are needed to cope with the impacts that have already occurred (e.g. storms, glaciers melting, floods, droughts) and to prepare for future scenarios of climate change. Mountain environment is particularly vulnerable to the climate changes due to its exposure to recent climate warming (e.g. water regime changes, thawing of permafrost) and due to the high degree of specialization of both natural and human systems (e.g. alpine species, valley population density, tourism-based economy). As a consequence, the mountain local governments are encouraged to undertake territorial governance policies to climate change, considering multi-risks and opportunities for the mountain economy and identifying the best portfolio of adaptation strategies. This study aims to provide a literature review of available qualitative and quantitative tools, methodological guidelines and best practices to conduct multi-risk assessments in the mountain environment within the context of climate change. We analyzed multi-risk modelling and assessment methods applied in alpine regions (e.g. event trees, Bayesian Networks, Agent Based Models) in order to identify key concepts (exposure, resilience, vulnerability, risk, adaptive capacity), climatic drivers, cause-effect relationships and socio-ecological systems to be integrated in a comprehensive framework. The main outcomes of the review, including a comparison of existing techniques based on different criteria (e.g. scale of analysis, targeted questions, level of complexity) and a snapshot of the developed multi-risk framework for climate change adaptation will be here presented and discussed.

  6. Calibrating and Validating a Simulation Model to Identify Drivers of Urban Land Cover Change in the Baltimore, MD Metropolitan Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire Jantz

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available We build upon much of the accumulated knowledge of the widely used SLEUTH urban land change model and offer advances. First, we use SLEUTH’s exclusion/attraction layer to identify and test different urban land cover change drivers; second, we leverage SLEUTH’s self-modification capability to incorporate a demographic model; and third, we develop a validation procedure to quantify the influence of land cover change drivers and assess uncertainty. We found that, contrary to our a priori expectations, new development is not attracted to areas serviced by existing or planned water and sewer infrastructure. However, information about where population and employment growth is likely to occur did improve model performance. These findings point to the dominant role of centrifugal forces in post-industrial cities like Baltimore, MD. We successfully developed a demographic model that allowed us to constrain the SLEUTH model forecasts and address uncertainty related to the dynamic relationship between changes in population and employment and urban land use. Finally, we emphasize the importance of model validation. In this work the validation procedure played a key role in rigorously assessing the impacts of different exclusion/attraction layers and in assessing uncertainty related to population and employment forecasts.

  7. Modeling for operational event risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

  8. Northern Winter Climate Change: Assessment of Uncertainty in CMIP5 Projections Related to Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzini, E.; Karpechko, A.Yu.; Anstey, J.; Shindell, Drew Todd; Baldwin, M.P.; Black, R.X.; Cagnazzo, C.; Calvo, N.; Charlton-Perez, A.; Christiansen, B.; hide

    2014-01-01

    Future changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (SLP) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent variations in troposphere-stratosphere circulation. Here we assess northern winter stratospheric change and its potential to influence surface climate change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. In the stratosphere at high latitudes, an easterly change in zonally averaged zonal wind is found for the majority of the CMIP5 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Comparable results are also found in the 1% CO2 increase per year projections, indicating that the stratospheric easterly change is common feature in future climate projections. This stratospheric wind change, however, shows a significant spread among the models. By using linear regression, we quantify the impact of tropical upper troposphere warming, polar amplification, and the stratospheric wind change on SLP. We find that the intermodel spread in stratospheric wind change contributes substantially to the intermodel spread in Arctic SLP change. The role of the stratosphere in determining part of the spread in SLP change is supported by the fact that the SLP change lags the stratospheric zonally averaged wind change. Taken together, these findings provide further support for the importance of simulating the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, to narrow the uncertainty in the future projection of tropospheric circulation changes.

  9. Consideration of climate change on environmental impact assessment in Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro, E-mail: aenriquez@draba.org [Escuela de Doctorado, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, UNED, Draba Ingeniería y Consultoría Medioambiental, Cañada Nueva, 29, 28200 San Lorenzo de El Escorial (Spain); Martín-Aranda, Rosa M., E-mail: rmartin@ccia.uned.es [Departamento de Química Inorgánica y Química Técnica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, UNED, Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040, Madrid (Spain); Díaz-Sierra, Rubén, E-mail: sierra@dfmf.uned.es [Departamento de Física Matemática y de Fluidos, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, UNED, Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040, Madrid (Spain)

    2016-02-15

    Most of the projects subject to environmental impact assessment (EIA) are closely related to climate change, as they contribute to or are affected by it. The growing certainty about climate change and its impacts makes its consideration an essential part of the EIA process, as well as in strategic environmental assessment (SEA). This paper examines how climate change (CC) has been taken into account in EIA in Spain through the analysis of 1713 environmental records of decision (RODs) of projects submitted for EIA. In 2013 Spain approved one of the most advanced laws in terms of CC consideration in environmental assessment, although it had not yet accumulated extensive practice on the issue. This contrasts with the situation of countries like Canada or the USA, which have a significant body of experience without specific legal requirements. Only 14% of the RODs analysed included references to CC, and in more than half of the cases it was a mere citation. Thermal power plants, which are subject to specific GHG regulations, show the highest consideration, while transport infrastructures, which are important contributors to CC, show a very low consideration. Almost all the references are related to their contribution to CC, while consideration of the effects of CC is minimal. The increasingly common incorporation of CC into SEA, should not imply its exclusion from EIA, because both processes have different aims and uses. Including the obligation to consider CC in the EIA regulations is highly desirable, but probably not enough without other measures, such as practical guidance, training and motivational programmes for practitioners and evaluators. But even these actions cannot ensure effective and adequate assessments of CC. Probably more resources should be spent on creating greater awareness in all the agents involved in EIA. - Highlights: • We analyse how the climate change is considered in EIA in Spain. • Few projects seriously assess climate change.

  10. Consideration of climate change on environmental impact assessment in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro; Martín-Aranda, Rosa M.; Díaz-Sierra, Rubén

    2016-01-01

    Most of the projects subject to environmental impact assessment (EIA) are closely related to climate change, as they contribute to or are affected by it. The growing certainty about climate change and its impacts makes its consideration an essential part of the EIA process, as well as in strategic environmental assessment (SEA). This paper examines how climate change (CC) has been taken into account in EIA in Spain through the analysis of 1713 environmental records of decision (RODs) of projects submitted for EIA. In 2013 Spain approved one of the most advanced laws in terms of CC consideration in environmental assessment, although it had not yet accumulated extensive practice on the issue. This contrasts with the situation of countries like Canada or the USA, which have a significant body of experience without specific legal requirements. Only 14% of the RODs analysed included references to CC, and in more than half of the cases it was a mere citation. Thermal power plants, which are subject to specific GHG regulations, show the highest consideration, while transport infrastructures, which are important contributors to CC, show a very low consideration. Almost all the references are related to their contribution to CC, while consideration of the effects of CC is minimal. The increasingly common incorporation of CC into SEA, should not imply its exclusion from EIA, because both processes have different aims and uses. Including the obligation to consider CC in the EIA regulations is highly desirable, but probably not enough without other measures, such as practical guidance, training and motivational programmes for practitioners and evaluators. But even these actions cannot ensure effective and adequate assessments of CC. Probably more resources should be spent on creating greater awareness in all the agents involved in EIA. - Highlights: • We analyse how the climate change is considered in EIA in Spain. • Few projects seriously assess climate change.

  11. Southeast Regional Assessment Project for the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalton, Melinda S.; Jones, Sonya A.

    2010-01-01

    expanded to address climate change-related impacts on all Department of the Interior (DOI) resources. The NCCWSC will establish a network of eight DOI Regional Climate Science Centers (RCSCs) that will work with a variety of partners to provide natural resource managers with tools and information that will help them anticipate and adapt conservation planning and design for projected climate change. The forecasting products produced by the RCSCs will aid fish, wildlife, and land managers in designing suitable adaptive management approaches for their programs. The DOI also is developing Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) as science and conservation action partnerships at subregional scales. The USGS is working with the Southeast Region of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to develop science collaboration between the future Southeast RCSC and future LCCs. The NCCWSC Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) will begin to develop regional downscaled climate models, land cover change models, regional ecological models, regional watershed models, and other science tools. Models and data produced by SERAP will be used in a collaborative process between the USGS, the FWS (LCCs), State and federal partners, nongovernmental organizations, and academia to produce science at appropriate scales to answer resource management questions. The SERAP will produce an assessment of climate change, and impacts on land cover, ecosystems, and priority species in the region. The predictive tools developed by the SERAP project team will allow end users to better understand potential impacts of climate change and sea level rise on terrestrial and aquatic populations in the Southeastern United States. The SERAP capitalizes on the integration of five existing projects: (1) the Multi-State Conservation Grants Program project "Designing Sustainable Landscapes," (2) the USGS multidisciplinary Science Thrust project "Water Availability for Ecological Needs," (3) the USGS Southeast Pilot

  12. A review of and perspectives on global change modeling for Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, Erwan; Kicklighter, David W.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Zhuang, Qianlai; Sokolik, Irina N.; Lawford, Richard; Kappas, Martin; Paltsev, Sergey V.; Groisman, Pavel Ya

    2017-08-01

    Northern Eurasia is made up of a complex and diverse set of physical, ecological, climatic and human systems, which provide important ecosystem services including the storage of substantial stocks of carbon in its terrestrial ecosystems. At the same time, the region has experienced dramatic climate change, natural disturbances and changes in land management practices over the past century. For these reasons, Northern Eurasia is both a critical region to understand and a complex system with substantial challenges for the modeling community. This review is designed to highlight the state of past and ongoing efforts of the research community to understand and model these environmental, socioeconomic, and climatic changes. We further aim to provide perspectives on the future direction of global change modeling to improve our understanding of the role of Northern Eurasia in the coupled human-Earth system. Modeling efforts have shown that environmental and socioeconomic changes in Northern Eurasia can have major impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems services, environmental sustainability, and the carbon cycle of the region, and beyond. These impacts have the potential to feedback onto and alter the global Earth system. We find that past and ongoing studies have largely focused on specific components of Earth system dynamics and have not systematically examined their feedbacks to the global Earth system and to society. We identify the crucial role of Earth system models in advancing our understanding of feedbacks within the region and with the global system. We further argue for the need for integrated assessment models (IAMs), a suite of models that couple human activity models to Earth system models, which are key to address many emerging issues that require a representation of the coupled human-Earth system.

  13. Modeling future flows of the Volta River system: Impacts of climate change and socio-economic changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Li; Whitehead, Paul G; Appeaning Addo, Kwasi; Amisigo, Barnabas; Macadam, Ian; Janes, Tamara; Crossman, Jill; Nicholls, Robert J; McCartney, Matthew; Rodda, Harvey J E

    2018-05-14

    As the scientific consensus concerning global climate change has increased in recent decades, research on potential impacts of climate change on water resources has been given high importance. However in Sub-Saharan Africa, few studies have fully evaluated the potential implications of climate change to their water resource systems. The Volta River is one of the major rivers in Africa covering six riparian countries (mainly Ghana and Burkina Faso). It is a principal water source for approximately 24 million people in the region. The catchment is primarily agricultural providing food supplies to rural areas, demonstrating the classic water, food, energy nexus. In this study an Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) was applied to the whole Volta River system to simulate flow in the rivers and at the outlet of the artificial Lake Volta. High-resolution climate scenarios downscaled from three different Global Climate Models (CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES and CanESM2), have been used to drive the INCA model and to assess changes in flow by 2050s and 2090s under the high climate forcing scenario RCP8.5. Results show that peak flows during the monsoon months could increase into the future. The duration of high flow could become longer compared to the recent condition. In addition, we considered three different socio-economic scenarios. As an example, under the combined impact from climate change from downscaling CNRM-CM5 and medium+ (high economic growth) socio-economic changes, the extreme high flows (Q5) of the Black Volta River are projected to increase 11% and 36% at 2050s and 2090s, respectively. Lake Volta outflow would increase +1% and +5% at 2050s and 2090s, respectively, under the same scenario. The effects of changing socio-economic conditions on flow are minor compared to the climate change impact. These results will provide valuable information assisting future water resource development and adaptive strategies in the Volta Basin. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights

  14. Assessing the impacts of climate change on winter crop production in Uruguay and Argentina using crop simulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baethgen, W.E. [International Fertilizer Development Center, Muscle Shoals, AL (United States); Magrin, G.O. [Inst. Nacional de Tecnologia Agropecuaria Castelar, Buenos Aires (Argentina). Inst. de Clima y Agua

    1995-12-31

    Enhanced greenhouse effect caused by the increase in atmospheric concentration of CO{sub 2} and other trace gases could lead to higher global surface temperature and altered hydrological cycles. Most possible climate change scenarios include higher atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations, higher temperatures, and changes in precipitation. Three global climate models (GCMs) were applied to generate climate change scenarios for the Pampas region in southern South America. The generated scenarios were then used with crop simulation models to study the possible impact of climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) production in the Pampas. The authors evaluated the impact of possible climate change scenarios on wheat and barley production in Uruguay for a wide range of soil and crop management strategies including planting dates, cultivar types, fertilizer management, and tillage practices. They also studied the impact of climate change on wheat production across two transects of the Pampas: north to south transect with decreasing temperature, and east to west transect with decreasing precipitation. Finally, sensitivity analyses were conducted for both, the Uruguayan site and the transects, by increasing daily maximum and minimum temperature by 0, 2, and 4 C, and changing the precipitation by {minus}20, 0, and +20%.

  15. Economic Models as Devices of Policy Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Lasse Folke

    2013-01-01

    Can the emergence of a new policy model be a catalyst for a paradigm shift in the overall interpretative framework of how economic policy is conducted within a society? This paper claims that models are understudied as devices used by actors to induce policy change. This paper explores the role...... of models in Danish economic policy, where, from the 1970s onwards, executive public servants in this area have exclusively been specialists in model design. To understand changes in economic policy, this paper starts with a discussion of whether the notion of paradigm shift is adequate. It then examines...... the extent to which the performativity approach can help identify macroscopic changes in policy from seemingly microscopic changes in policy models. The concept of performativity is explored as a means of thinking about the constitution of agency directed at policy change. The paper brings this concept...

  16. Changing anatomies of Information Literacy at the postgraduate level: refinements of models and shifts in assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonja Spiranec

    2012-06-01

    Teaching students in the scientific method and culture has long been recognized as the major focus of postgraduate education, an important precondition for research practices is the adequate performance in the realm of information handling and information management, i.e., information literacy. IL on postgraduate levels has a strong focus on the universe of scientific information, which itself went through tremendous changes in the last decade, particularly as a result of the appearance of the Web 2.0 (e.g. Science 2.0, Research 2.0. Such profound changes suggest renewed conceptions and focal points of IL at the postgraduate level which will take into account the fluid nature of current information environments. After discussing changes in information landscapes brought about the Web 2.0 and examining transformed premises of scientific work within such environments, the authors will plea for re-conceptualizations of IL on the postgraduate level and propose new principles of IL frameworks and modes of assessment that will recognize this transformation.

  17. Sensorimotor synchronization with tempo-changing auditory sequences: Modeling temporal adaptation and anticipation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Steen, M C Marieke; Jacoby, Nori; Fairhurst, Merle T; Keller, Peter E

    2015-11-11

    The current study investigated the human ability to synchronize movements with event sequences containing continuous tempo changes. This capacity is evident, for example, in ensemble musicians who maintain precise interpersonal coordination while modulating the performance tempo for expressive purposes. Here we tested an ADaptation and Anticipation Model (ADAM) that was developed to account for such behavior by combining error correction processes (adaptation) with a predictive temporal extrapolation process (anticipation). While previous computational models of synchronization incorporate error correction, they do not account for prediction during tempo-changing behavior. The fit between behavioral data and computer simulations based on four versions of ADAM was assessed. These versions included a model with adaptation only, one in which adaptation and anticipation act in combination (error correction is applied on the basis of predicted tempo changes), and two models in which adaptation and anticipation were linked in a joint module that corrects for predicted discrepancies between the outcomes of adaptive and anticipatory processes. The behavioral experiment required participants to tap their finger in time with three auditory pacing sequences containing tempo changes that differed in the rate of change and the number of turning points. Behavioral results indicated that sensorimotor synchronization accuracy and precision, while generally high, decreased with increases in the rate of tempo change and number of turning points. Simulations and model-based parameter estimates showed that adaptation mechanisms alone could not fully explain the observed precision of sensorimotor synchronization. Including anticipation in the model increased the precision of simulated sensorimotor synchronization and improved the fit of model to behavioral data, especially when adaptation and anticipation mechanisms were linked via a joint module based on the notion of joint internal

  18. A Hydro-Economic Approach to Representing Water Resources Impacts in Integrated Assessment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirshen, Paul H.; Strzepek, Kenneth, M.

    2004-01-14

    Grant Number DE-FG02-98ER62665 Office of Energy Research of the U.S. Department of Energy Abstract Many Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) divide the world into a small number of highly aggregated regions. Non-OECD countries are aggregated geographically into continental and multiple-continental regions or economically by development level. Current research suggests that these large scale aggregations cannot accurately represent potential water resources-related climate change impacts. In addition, IAMs do not explicitly model the flow regulation impacts of reservoir and ground water systems, the economics of water supply, or the demand for water in economic activities. Using the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) model of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) as a case study, this research implemented a set of methodologies to provide accurate representation of water resource climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models. There were also detailed examinations of key issues related to aggregated modeling including: modeling water consumption versus water withdrawals; ground and surface water interactions; development of reservoir cost curves; modeling of surface areas of aggregated reservoirs for estimating evaporation losses; and evaluating the importance of spatial scale in river basin modeling. The major findings include: - Continental or national or even large scale river basin aggregation of water supplies and demands do not accurately capture the impacts of climate change in the water and agricultural sector in IAMs. - Fortunately, there now exist gridden approaches (0.5 X 0.5 degrees) to model streamflows in a global analysis. The gridded approach to hydrologic modeling allows flexibility in aligning basin boundaries with national boundaries. This combined with GIS tools, high speed computers, and the growing availability of socio-economic gridded data bases allows assignment of

  19. Mathematical models of cancer and their use in risk assessment. Technical report No. 27

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whittemore, A.S.

    1979-08-01

    The sensitivity of risk predictions to certain assumptions in the underlying mathematical model is illustrated. To avoid the misleading and erroneous predictions that can result from the use of models incorporating assumptions whose validity is questionable, the following steps should be taken. First, state the assumptions used in a proposed model in terms that are clear to all who will use the model to assess risk. Second, assess the sensitivity of predictions to changes in model assumptions. Third, scrutinize pivotal assumptions in light of the best available human and animal data. Fourth, stress inconsistencies between model assumptions and experimental or epidemiological observations. The model fitting procedure will yield the most information when the data discriminates between theories because of their inconsistency with one or more assumptions. In this sense, mathematical theories are most successful when they fail. Finally, exclude value judgments from the quantitative procedures used to assess risk; instead include them explicitly in that part of the decision process concerned with cost-benefit analysis

  20. Evaluating confidence in the impact of regulatory nutrient reduction and assessing the competing impact of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irby, I.; Friedrichs, M. A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Human impacts on the Chesapeake Bay through increased nutrient run-off as a result of land-use change, urbanization, and industrialization, have resulted in a degradation of water quality over the last half-century. These direct impacts, compounded with human-induced climate changes such as warming, rising sea level, and changes in precipitation, have elevated the conversation surrounding the future of the Bay's water quality. As a result, in 2010, a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) was established for the Chesapeake Bay that limited nutrient and sediment input in an effort to increase dissolved oxygen. This research utilizes a multiple model approach to evaluate confidence in the estuarine water quality modeling portion of the TMDL. One of the models is then used to assess the potential impact climate change may have on the success of currently mandated nutrient reduction levels in 2050. Results demonstrate that although the models examined differ structurally and in biogeochemical complexity, they project a similar attainment of regulatory water quality standards after nutrient reduction, while also establishing that meeting water quality standards is relatively independent of hydrologic conditions. By developing a Confidence Index, this research identifies the locations and causes of greatest uncertainty in modeled projections of water quality. Although there are specific locations and times where the models disagree, this research lends an increased degree of confidence in the appropriateness of the TMDL levels and in the general impact nutrient reductions will have on Chesapeake Bay water quality under current environmental conditions. However, when examining the potential impacts of climate change, this research shows that the combined impacts of increasing temperature, sea level, and river flow negatively affect dissolved oxygen throughout the Chesapeake Bay and impact progress towards meeting the water quality standards associated with the TMDL with

  1. Modeling mechanisms of vegetation change due to fire in a semi-arid ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, J.D.; Gutzwiller, K.J.; Barrow, W.C.; Randall, L.J.; Swint, P.

    2008-01-01

    Vegetation growth and community composition in semi-arid environments is determined by water availability and carbon assimilation mechanisms specific to different plant types. Disturbance also impacts vegetation productivity and composition dependent on area affected, intensity, and frequency factors. In this study, a new spatially explicit ecosystem model is presented for the purpose of simulating vegetation cover type changes associated with fire disturbance in the northern Chihuahuan Desert region. The model is called the Landscape and Fire Simulator (LAFS) and represents physiological activity of six functional plant types incorporating site climate, fire, and seed dispersal routines for individual grid cells. We applied this model for Big Bend National Park, Texas, by assessing the impact of wildfire on the trajectory of vegetation communities over time. The model was initialized and calibrated based on landcover maps derived from Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper data acquired in 1986 and 1999 coupled with plant biomass measurements collected in the field during 2000. Initial vegetation cover change analysis from satellite data showed shrub encroachment during this time period that was captured in the simulated results. A synthetic 50-year climate record was derived from historical meteorological data to assess system response based on initial landcover conditions. This simulation showed that shrublands increased to the detriment of grass and yucca-ocotillo vegetation cover types indicating an ecosystem-level trajectory for shrub encroachment. Our analysis of simulated fires also showed that fires significantly reduced site biomass components including leaf area, stem, and seed biomass in this semi-arid ecosystem. In contrast to other landscape simulation models, this new model incorporates detailed physiological responses of functional plant types that will allow us to simulated the impact of increased atmospheric CO2 occurring with climate change coupled with fire

  2. Global Water Cycle Agreement in the Climate Models Assessed in the IPCC AR4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waliser, D.; Seo, K. -W.; Schubert, S.; Njoku, E.

    2007-01-01

    This study examines the fidelity of the global water cycle in the climate model simulations assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The results demonstrate good model agreement in quantities that have had a robust global observational basis and that are physically unambiguous. The worst agreement occurs for quantities that have both poor observational constraints and whose model representations can be physically ambiguous. In addition, components involving water vapor (frozen water) typically exhibit the best (worst) agreement, and fluxes typically exhibit better agreement than reservoirs. These results are discussed in relation to the importance of obtaining accurate model representation of the water cycle and its role in climate change. Recommendations are also given for facilitating the needed model improvements.

  3. A modelling framework to project future climate change impacts on streamflow variability and extremes in the West River, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Fei

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a hydrological modelling framework was introduced to assess the climate change impacts on future river flow in the West River basin, China, especially on streamflow variability and extremes. The modelling framework includes a delta-change method with the quantile-mapping technique to construct future climate forcings on the basis of observed meteorological data and the downscaled climate model outputs. This method is able to retain the signals of extreme weather events, as projected by climate models, in the constructed future forcing scenarios. Fed with the historical and future forcing data, a large-scale hydrologic model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, VIC was executed for streamflow simulations and projections at daily time scales. A bootstrapping resample approach was used as an indirect alternative to test the equality of means, standard deviations and the coefficients of variation for the baseline and future streamflow time series, and to assess the future changes in flood return levels. The West River basin case study confirms that the introduced modelling framework is an efficient effective tool to quantify streamflow variability and extremes in response to future climate change.

  4. Permafrost Degradation Risk Zone Assessment using Simulation Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Daanen, R.P.; Ingeman-Nielsen, Thomas; Marchenko, S.

    2011-01-01

    In this proof-of-concept study we focus on linking large scale climate and permafrost simulations to small scale engineering projects by bridging the gap between climate and permafrost sciences on the one hand and on the other technical recommendation for adaptation of planned infrastructures...... to climate change in a region generally underlain by permafrost. We present the current and future state of permafrost in Greenland as modelled numerically with the GIPL model driven by HIRHAM climate projections up to 2080. We develop a concept called Permafrost Thaw Potential (PTP), defined...... as the potential active layer increase due to climate warming and surface alterations. PTP is then used in a simple risk assessment procedure useful for engineering applications. The modelling shows that climate warming will result in continuing wide-spread permafrost warming and degradation in Greenland...

  5. Categorical information for assessments of land use change. Opportunities and challenges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Levin, Gregor

    2014-01-01

    Access to detailed categorical information on land use and land cover (LULC) has increased significantly during recent years. In Denmark, free access to most categorical information (i.e. pre-classified spatially explicit information) gives opportunities for assessments and analyses of LULC-changes...... not elaborated with the aim to assess LULC-changes with definitions and registration methods changing over time and to categorical data not being spatially synchronized and consequently spatially overlapping (Ahlqvist and Shortridge, 2010; Levin et al., 2012). Presenting an assessment of annual LULC changes...... for Denmark from 1990-2013, which is part of Denmark’s emission inventory according to article 3(4) of the Kyoto protocol, this paper aims at elucidating opportunities, limitations and possible solutions for the application of categorical information. Changes between the LULC- types: settlement...

  6. Development of an Integrated Agricultural Planning Model Considering Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santikayasa, I. P.

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this study is to develop an agriculture planning model in order to sustain the future water use under the estimation of crop water requirement, water availability and future climate projection. For this purpose, the Citarum river basin which is located in West Java - Indonesia is selected as the study area. Two emission scenarios A2 and B2 were selected. For the crop water requirement estimation, the output of HadCM3 AOGCM is statistically downscale using SDSM and used as the input for WEAP model developed by SEI (Stockholm Environmental Institute). The reliability of water uses is assessed by comparing the irrigation water demand and the water allocation for the irrigation area. The water supply resources are assessed using the water planning tool. This study shows that temperature and precipitation over the study area are projected to increase in the future. The water availability was projected to increase under both A2 and B2 emission scenarios in the future. The irrigation water requirement is expected to decrease in the future under A2 and B2 scenarios. By comparing the irrigation water demand and water allocation for irrigation, the reliability of agriculture water use is expected to change in the period of 2050s and 2080s while the reliability will not change in 2020s. The reliability under A2 scenario is expected to be higher than B2 scenario. The combination of WEAP and SDSM is significance to use in assessing and allocating the water resources in the region.

  7. Methods for Assessing Uncertainties in Climate Change, Impacts and Responses (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, M. R.; Swart, R.

    2009-12-01

    Assessing the scientific uncertainties or confidence levels for the many different aspects of climate change is particularly important because of the seriousness of potential impacts and the magnitude of economic and political responses that are needed to mitigate climate change effectively. This has made the treatment of uncertainty and confidence a key feature in the assessments carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Because climate change is very much a cross-disciplinary area of science, adequately dealing with uncertainties requires recognition of their wide range and different perspectives on assessing and communicating those uncertainties. The structural differences that exist across disciplines are often embedded deeply in the corresponding literature that is used as the basis for an IPCC assessment. The assessment of climate change science by the IPCC has from its outset tried to report the levels of confidence and uncertainty in the degree of understanding in both the underlying multi-disciplinary science and in projections for future climate. The growing recognition of the seriousness of this led to the formation of a detailed approach for consistent treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (TAR) [Moss and Schneider, 2000]. However, in completing the TAR there remained some systematic differences between the disciplines raising concerns about the level of consistency. So further consideration of a systematic approach to uncertainties was undertaken for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The basis for the approach used in the AR4 was developed at an expert meeting of scientists representing many different disciplines. This led to the introduction of a broader way of addressing uncertainties in the AR4 [Manning et al., 2004] which was further refined by lengthy discussions among many IPCC Lead Authors, for over a year, resulting in a short summary of a standard approach to be followed for that

  8. Assessment of metabolic changes in the striatum of a MPTP-intoxicated canine model: in vivo ¹H-MRS study of an animal model for Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Chi-Bong; Kim, Sang-Young; Lee, Sung-Ho; Jahng, Geon-Ho; Kim, Hwi-Yool; Choe, Bo-Young; Ryu, Kyung-Nam; Yang, Dal-Mo; Yim, Sung-Vin; Choi, Woo-Suk

    2011-01-01

    Parkinson's disease (PD) is a neurodegenerative disorder characterized by the progressive loss of the dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra pars compacta, which projects to the striatum. We induced a selective loss of nigrostriatal dopamine neurons, by infusing the mitochondrial complex 1 inhibitor 1-methyl 4-phenyl 1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine (MPTP) into adult beagle dogs (N=5). Single voxel ¹H water suppressed magnetic resonance spectroscopy (¹H-MRS) at 3 T was used to assess the metabolic changes in the striatum of canine before and after MPTP intoxication. The metabolite spectra obtained from the striatum (voxel size: 2 cm³) showed a lower N-acetyl aspartate to total creatine (creatine+phosphocreatine) ratio after MPTP intoxication. There were no significant differences in other metabolite ratios such as glutamate+glutamine, choline-containing compounds (glycerophosphocholine+phophorylcholine and myo-inositol). Our findings indicated that ¹H-MRS is a sensitive, noninvasive measure of neural toxicity and biochemical alterations of the striatum in a canine model of PD, and further studies are needed to confirm brain metabolic changes in association with progression of MPTP-intoxication. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Air Pollution and Climate Change Health Impact Assessment. The ACHIA Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinney, P.L.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change may affect human health via interactions with air pollutants such as ozone and PM 2.5 . These air pollutants are linked to climate because they can be both affected by and have effects on climate. In coming decades, substantial, cost-effective improvements in public health may be achieved with well-planned strategies to mitigate climate impacts while also reducing health effects of ozone and PM 2.5 . Climate mitigation actions affect greenhouse pollutant emissions, including methane and black carbon, but also may affect other key air pollution precursors such as NOx, CO, and SOx. To better understand the potential of such strategies, studies are needed that assess possible future health impacts under alternative assumptions about future emissions and climate across multiple spatial scales. The overall objective of this project is to apply state of the art climate, air quality, and health modelling tools to assess future health impacts of ozone and PM 2.5 under different IPCCs scenario of climate change, focusing specifically on pollution-related health co-benefits which could be achieved under alternative climate mitigation pathways in the period 2030-2050. This question will be explored at three spatial scales: global, regional (Europe), and urban (Paris). ACHIA is comprised of an integrated set of four work packages: WP1. Global Climate and Air Pollution Impacts of Alternative Emissions Pathways; WP2. Climate and Air Quality at Regional and Urban Scales: Results for Europe and Paris; WP3. Health Impact Assessment; WP4. Dissemination, Evaluation, Management. ACHIA is designed to create an interdisciplinary approach to the impacts of climate change on health through air quality changes, and to start longer-term collaborations between communities. We expect the project to advance state of art across all WPs, with important implications for research groups around the world. A particular innovation of the project is the multi-scale aspect, i.e., the

  10. An approach for estimating item sensitivity to within-person change over time: An illustration using the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive subscale (ADAS-Cog).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowling, N Maritza; Bolt, Daniel M; Deng, Sien

    2016-12-01

    When assessments are primarily used to measure change over time, it is important to evaluate items according to their sensitivity to change, specifically. Items that demonstrate good sensitivity to between-person differences at baseline may not show good sensitivity to change over time, and vice versa. In this study, we applied a longitudinal factor model of change to a widely used cognitive test designed to assess global cognitive status in dementia, and contrasted the relative sensitivity of items to change. Statistically nested models were estimated introducing distinct latent factors related to initial status differences between test-takers and within-person latent change across successive time points of measurement. Models were estimated using all available longitudinal item-level data from the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive subscale, including participants representing the full-spectrum of disease status who were enrolled in the multisite Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Five of the 13 Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive items demonstrated noticeably higher loadings with respect to sensitivity to change. Attending to performance change on only these 5 items yielded a clearer picture of cognitive decline more consistent with theoretical expectations in comparison to the full 13-item scale. Items that show good psychometric properties in cross-sectional studies are not necessarily the best items at measuring change over time, such as cognitive decline. Applications of the methodological approach described and illustrated in this study can advance our understanding regarding the types of items that best detect fine-grained early pathological changes in cognition. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  11. Modeling soil organic carbon stocks and changes in Spain using the GEFSOC system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Álvaro-Fuentes, Jorge; Easter, Mark; Cantero-Martínez, Carlos; Paustian, Keith

    2010-05-01

    Currently, there is little information about soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Spain. To date the effects of land-use and soil management on SOC stocks in Spain have been evaluated in experimental fields under certain soil and climate conditions. However, these field experiments do not account for the spatial variability in management, cropping systems and soil and climate characteristics that exist in the whole territory. More realistic approaches like ecosystem-level dynamic simulation systems linked to geographic information systems (GIS) allow better assessments of SOC stocks at a regional or national level. The Global Environmental Facility Soil Organic Carbon (GEFSOC) system was recently built for this purpose (Milne et al., 2007) and it incorporates three widely used models for estimating SOC dynamics: (a) the Century ecosystem model; (b) the RothC soil C decomposition model; and (c) the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) method for assessing soil C at regional scales. We modeled 9.5 Mha in northeast Spain using the GEFSOC system to predict SOC stocks and changes comprising: pasture, forest, cereal-fallow, cereal monoculture, orchards, rice, irrigated land and grapes and olives. The spatial distribution of the different land use categories and their change over time was obtained from the European Corine database and from Spanish census data on land use from 1926 to 2007. At the same time, current and historical management information was collected from different sources in order to have a fairly well picture of changes in land use and management for this area. Soil parameters needed by the system were obtained from the European soil map (1 km x 1 km) and climate data was produced by the Meteorology State Agency (Ministry of the Environment and Rural and Marine Environs of Spain). The SOC stocks simulated were validated with SOC values from the European SOC map and from other national studies. Modeled SOC results suggested that spatial

  12. Climate change impact assessment on the hydrological regime of the Kaligandaki Basin, Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajracharya, Ajay Ratna; Bajracharya, Sagar Ratna; Shrestha, Arun Bhakta; Maharjan, Sudan Bikash

    2018-06-01

    The Hindu Kush-Himalayan region is an important global freshwater resource. The hydrological regime of the region is vulnerable to climatic variations, especially precipitation and temperature. In our study, we modelled the impact of climate change on the water balance and hydrological regime of the snow dominated Kaligandaki Basin. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for a future projection of changes in the hydrological regime of the Kaligandaki basin based on Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) of ensemble downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project's (CMIP5) General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs. It is predicted to be a rise in the average annual temperature of over 4°C, and an increase in the average annual precipitation of over 26% by the end of the 21st century under RCP 8.5 scenario. Modeling results show these will lead to significant changes in the basin's water balance and hydrological regime. In particular, a 50% increase in discharge is expected at the outlet of the basin. Snowmelt contribution will largely be affected by climate change, and it is projected to increase by 90% by 2090.Water availability in the basin is not likely to decrease during the 21st century. The study demonstrates that the important water balance components of snowmelt, evapotranspiration, and water yield at higher elevations in the upper and middle sub-basins of the Kaligandaki Basin will be most affected by the increasing temperatures and precipitation. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Innovative Models of Dental Care Delivery and Coverage: Patient-Centric Dental Benefits Based on Digital Oral Health Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, John; Mills, Shannon; Foley, Mary E

    2018-04-01

    Innovative models of dental care delivery and coverage are emerging across oral health care systems causing changes to treatment and benefit plans. A novel addition to these models is digital risk assessment, which offers a promising new approach that incorporates the use of a cloud-based technology platform to assess an individual patient's risk for oral disease. Risk assessment changes treatment by including risk as a modifier of treatment and as a determinant of preventive services. Benefit plans are being developed to use risk assessment to predetermine preventive benefits for patients identified at elevated risk for oral disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. The CARE model of social accountability: promoting cultural change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meili, Ryan; Ganem-Cuenca, Alejandra; Leung, Jannie Wing-sea; Zaleschuk, Donna

    2011-09-01

    On the 10th anniversary of Health Canada and the Association of Faculties of Medicine of Canada's publication in 2001 of Social Accountability: A Vision for Canadian Medical Schools, the authors review the progress at one Canadian medical school, the College of Medicine at the University of Saskatchewan, in developing a culture of social accountability. They review the changes that have made the medical school more socially accountable and the steps taken to make those changes possible. In response to calls for socially accountable medical schools, the College of Medicine created a Social Accountability Committee to oversee the integration of these principles into the college. The committee developed the CARE model (Clinical activity, Advocacy, Research, Education and training) as a guiding tool for social accountability initiatives toward priority health concerns and as a means of evaluation. Diverse faculty and student committees have emerged as a result and have had far-reaching impacts on the college and communities: from changes in curricula and admissions to community programming and international educational experiences. Although a systematic assessment of the CARE model is needed, early evidence shows that the most significant effects can be found in the cultural shift in the college, most notably among students. The CARE model may serve as an important example for other educational institutions in the development of health practitioners and research that is responsive to the needs of their communities.

  15. Normalized Mini-Mental State Examination for assessing cognitive change in population-based brain aging studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philipps, Viviane; Amieva, Hélène; Andrieu, Sandrine; Dufouil, Carole; Berr, Claudine; Dartigues, Jean-François; Jacqmin-Gadda, Hélène; Proust-Lima, Cécile

    2014-01-01

    The Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) is widely used in population-based longitudinal studies to quantify cognitive change. However, its poor metrological properties, mainly ceiling/floor effects and varying sensitivity to change, have largely restricted its usefulness. We propose a normalizing transformation that corrects these properties, and makes possible the use of standard statistical methods to analyze change in MMSE scores. The normalizing transformation designed to correct at best the metrological properties of MMSE was estimated and validated on two population-based studies (n = 4,889, 20-year follow-up) by cross-validation. The transformation was also validated on two external studies with heterogeneous samples mixing normal and pathological aging, and samples including only demented subjects. The normalizing transformation provided correct inference in contrast with models analyzing the change in crude MMSE that most often lead to biased estimates of risk factors and incorrect conclusions. Cognitive change can be easily and properly assessed with the normalized MMSE using standard statistical methods such as linear (mixed) models. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  16. Modelling of oceanic gas hydrate instability and methane release in response to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reagan, M.T.; Moridis, G.J.

    2008-01-01

    Methane releases from oceanic hydrates are thought to have played a significant role in climatic changes that have occurred in the past. In this study, gas hydrate accumulations subjected to temperature changes were modelled in order to assess their potential for future methane releases into the ocean. Recent ocean and atmospheric chemistry studies were used to model 2 climate scenarios. Two types of hydrate accumulations were used to represent dispersed, low-saturation deposits. The 1-D multiphase thermodynamic-hydrological model considered the properties of benthic sediments; ocean depth; sea floor temperature; the saturation and distribution of the hydrates; and the effect of benthic biogeochemical activity. Results of the simulations showed that shallow deposits undergo rapid dissociation and are capable of producing methane fluxes of 2 to 13 mol m 3 per year over a period of decades. The fluxes exceed the ability of the anaerobic sea floor environment to sequester or consume the methane. A large proportion of the methane released in the scenarios emerged in the gas phase. Arctic hydrates may pose a threat to regional and global ecological systems. It was concluded that results of the study will be coupled with global climate models in order to assess the impact of the methane releases in relation to global climatic change. 39 refs., 5 figs

  17. An integrated model for assessing both crop productivity and agricultural water resources at a large scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okada, M.; Sakurai, G.; Iizumi, T.; Yokozawa, M.

    2012-12-01

    Agricultural production utilizes regional resources (e.g. river water and ground water) as well as local resources (e.g. temperature, rainfall, solar energy). Future climate changes and increasing demand due to population increases and economic developments would intensively affect the availability of water resources for agricultural production. While many studies assessed the impacts of climate change on agriculture, there are few studies that dynamically account for changes in water resources and crop production. This study proposes an integrated model for assessing both crop productivity and agricultural water resources at a large scale. Also, the irrigation management to subseasonal variability in weather and crop response varies for each region and each crop. To deal with such variations, we used the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique to quantify regional-specific parameters associated with crop growth and irrigation water estimations. We coupled a large-scale crop model (Sakurai et al. 2012), with a global water resources model, H08 (Hanasaki et al. 2008). The integrated model was consisting of five sub-models for the following processes: land surface, crop growth, river routing, reservoir operation, and anthropogenic water withdrawal. The land surface sub-model was based on a watershed hydrology model, SWAT (Neitsch et al. 2009). Surface and subsurface runoffs simulated by the land surface sub-model were input to the river routing sub-model of the H08 model. A part of regional water resources available for agriculture, simulated by the H08 model, was input as irrigation water to the land surface sub-model. The timing and amount of irrigation water was simulated at a daily step. The integrated model reproduced the observed streamflow in an individual watershed. Additionally, the model accurately reproduced the trends and interannual variations of crop yields. To demonstrate the usefulness of the integrated model, we compared two types of impact assessment of

  18. Behavioural models of technological change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeppini, P.

    2011-01-01

    Technological change still remains an important driver of the economy. This thesis studies the endogenous forces of technological change stemming from behavioural interactions within populations of many agents. Four theoretical models are proposed that describe consumers’ and suppliers’ behaviour

  19. Assessment of climate change impact on water resources in the Pungwe river basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersson, Lotta; Samuelsson, Patrick; Kjellstroem, Erik (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden)), e-mail: lotta.andersson@smhi.se

    2011-01-15

    The Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA3) and the hydrological model HBV were linked to assess climate change impacts on water resources in the Pungwe basin until 2050. RCA3 was capable of simulating the most important aspects of the climate for a control period at the regional scale. At the subbasin scale, additional scaling was needed. Three climate change experiments using ECHAM4-A2, B2 and CCSM3-B2 as input to RCA3 were carried out. According to the simulations annual rainfall in 2050 would be reduced by approximately 10% with increasing interannual variability of rainfall and dry season river flow and later onset of the rainy season. The ECHAM4-A2 driven experiment did also indicate a slight increase of high flows. If the results indeed reflect the future, they will worsen the already critical situation for water resources, regarding both floods and droughts. Uncertainties, however in the downscaled scenarios make it difficult to prioritize adaptation options. This calls for inclusion of more climate change experiments, in an ensemble of climate scenarios possibly by using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling of general circulation models, as well as extending the simulations to 2100 to further ensure robustness of the signal

  20. Magnetic resonance imaging can accurately assess the long-term progression of knee structural changes in experimental dog osteoarthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boileau, C; Martel-Pelletier, J; Abram, F; Raynauld, J-P; Troncy, E; D'Anjou, M-A; Moreau, M; Pelletier, J-P

    2008-07-01

    Osteoarthritis (OA) structural changes take place over decades in humans. MRI can provide precise and reliable information on the joint structure and changes over time. In this study, we investigated the reliability of quantitative MRI in assessing knee OA structural changes in the experimental anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) dog model of OA. OA was surgically induced by transection of the ACL of the right knee in five dogs. High resolution three dimensional MRI using a 1.5 T magnet was performed at baseline, 4, 8 and 26 weeks post surgery. Cartilage volume/thickness, cartilage defects, trochlear osteophyte formation and subchondral bone lesion (hypersignal) were assessed on MRI images. Animals were killed 26 weeks post surgery and macroscopic evaluation was performed. There was a progressive and significant increase over time in the loss of knee cartilage volume, the cartilage defect and subchondral bone hypersignal. The trochlear osteophyte size also progressed over time. The greatest cartilage loss at 26 weeks was found on the tibial plateaus and in the medial compartment. There was a highly significant correlation between total knee cartilage volume loss or defect and subchondral bone hypersignal, and also a good correlation between the macroscopic and the MRI findings. This study demonstrated that MRI is a useful technology to provide a non-invasive and reliable assessment of the joint structural changes during the development of OA in the ACL dog model. The combination of this OA model with MRI evaluation provides a promising tool for the evaluation of new disease-modifying osteoarthritis drugs (DMOADs).

  1. Climate change impact assessment in Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part II: a spatially resolved regional risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Rizzi, J; Zabeo, A; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impact assessment on water resources has received high international attention over the last two decades, due to the observed global warming and its consequences at the global to local scale. In particular, climate-related risks for groundwater and related ecosystems pose a great concern to scientists and water authorities involved in the protection of these valuable resources. The close link of global warming with water cycle alterations encourages research to deepen current knowledge on relationships between climate trends and status of water systems, and to develop predictive tools for their sustainable management, copying with key principles of EU water policy. Within the European project Life+ TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groundwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change), a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed in order to identify impacts from climate change on groundwater and associated ecosystems (e.g. surface waters, agricultural areas, natural environments) and to rank areas and receptors at risk in the high and middle Veneto and Friuli Plain (Italy). Based on an integrated analysis of impacts, vulnerability and risks linked to climate change at the regional scale, a RRA framework complying with the Sources-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) approach was defined. Relevant impacts on groundwater and surface waters (i.e. groundwater level variations, changes in nitrate infiltration processes, changes in water availability for irrigation) were selected and analyzed through hazard scenario, exposure, susceptibility and risk assessment. The RRA methodology used hazard scenarios constructed through global and high resolution model simulations for the 2071-2100 period, according to IPCC A1B emission scenario in order to produce useful indications for future risk prioritization and to support the addressing of adaptation measures, primarily Managed Artificial Recharge (MAR) techniques. Relevant

  2. Rainfall-runoff modelling of the Okavango River catchment to assess impacts of land use change on runoff and downstream ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milzow, Christian; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

    2010-05-01

    The competition between human water use and ecosystem water use is one of the major challenges for water resources management at the global scale. We analyse the situation for the Okavango River basin of southern Africa. The Okavango River is representative for many large rivers throughout the developing world in that it is ungauged and poorly studied. The Okavango basin - spanning over Angola, Namibia and Botswana - represents a multi-objective problem in an international setting. Economic benefits of agricultural development and conservation of ecosystem services call for opposed actions. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model of the Okavango catchment is set up using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model is sufficiently physically based to simulate the impact on runoff of extent of agricultural use, crop types and management practices. Precipitation and temperature inputs are taken from datasets covering large parts of the globe. The methodology can thus easily be applied for other ungauged catchments. For temperature we use the ERA-Interim reanalysis product of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and for precipitation the Famine Early Warning Systems Network data (FEWS-Net). Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) data resulted in poor model performance compared to the FEWS-Net data. Presently, the upstream catchment in Angola is largely pristine and agriculture is basically restricted to dry land subsistence farming. But economic growth in Angola is likely to result in agricultural development and consequent impacts on catchment runoff. Land use scenarios that are simulated include large scale irrigated agriculture with water extractions from the river and the shallow aquifer. Climate change impacts are also studied and compared to land use change impacts. The downstream part of the basin consists of the large Okavango Wetlands, which are a biodiversity hotspot of global importance and, through tourism, an important

  3. The Role of Learner-Centred Assessment in Postsecondary Organisational Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webber, Karen L.; Tschepikow, Kyle

    2013-01-01

    For postsecondary institutions, organisational change is an inevitable and ongoing process. Institutions face a growing need to assess student learning assessment as part of an institution's comprehensive assessment plan. While a growing body of literature suggests that learner-centred assessment is a best practice in higher education pedagogy, it…

  4. Modelling pesticide leaching under climate change: parameter vs. climate input uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Steffens

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Assessing climate change impacts on pesticide leaching requires careful consideration of different sources of uncertainty. We investigated the uncertainty related to climate scenario input and its importance relative to parameter uncertainty of the pesticide leaching model. The pesticide fate model MACRO was calibrated against a comprehensive one-year field data set for a well-structured clay soil in south-western Sweden. We obtained an ensemble of 56 acceptable parameter sets that represented the parameter uncertainty. Nine different climate model projections of the regional climate model RCA3 were available as driven by different combinations of global climate models (GCM, greenhouse gas emission scenarios and initial states of the GCM. The future time series of weather data used to drive the MACRO model were generated by scaling a reference climate data set (1970–1999 for an important agricultural production area in south-western Sweden based on monthly change factors for 2070–2099. 30 yr simulations were performed for different combinations of pesticide properties and application seasons. Our analysis showed that both the magnitude and the direction of predicted change in pesticide leaching from present to future depended strongly on the particular climate scenario. The effect of parameter uncertainty was of major importance for simulating absolute pesticide losses, whereas the climate uncertainty was relatively more important for predictions of changes of pesticide losses from present to future. The climate uncertainty should be accounted for by applying an ensemble of different climate scenarios. The aggregated ensemble prediction based on both acceptable parameterizations and different climate scenarios has the potential to provide robust probabilistic estimates of future pesticide losses.

  5. Changes in Methodology for Assessing Performance of Research Organisations and Influence of Such Changes on Researchers' Behaviour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luboš Marek

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Assessing quality of research results on an international scale is a basis for evaluating the level of scientific activities pursued in research organisations. In the past 15 years, significant changes have occurred in the Czech Republic in research management and, in particular, the methodology of assessing research results. The methodology of assessment and its modifications should always be focused on increasing quality of research results; the rules of assessment have their effects on researchers' behaviour. This paper studies a question of whether the changes applied to the methodology of assessing research results in the Czech Republic have supported higher quality research results, i.e., results published in high-quality international journals. The authors have developed their own statistical test to measure significance of such changes, as well as other statistical tests of hypotheses. The main source is represented by the results of assessing public universities in the Czech Republic according to "Methodology for assessing results of research organisations" in 2010 and 2013. Our tests have not proven any statistically significant differences in the numbers of papers published in the journals monitored in the Web of Science and Scopus databases.

  6. Ecological risk assessment in the context of global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

    2013-01-01

    Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause-effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses-include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  7. Building a stakeholder network for the Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dukes, J. S.; Widhalm, M.

    2017-12-01

    The Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment (IN CCIA) is a stakeholder-informed, service-driven resource developed under the coordination of the Purdue Climate Change Research Center (PCCRC) and with involvement from a diverse mix of contributors throughout the state. The IN CCIA brings together the best available climate change research into a series of reports aimed at helping Hoosiers better understand climate change-related risks so they can prepare for challenges and capitalize on opportunities. The IN CCIA development process aims to 1) increase the dialogue about climate change across the state, 2) provide Indiana decision makers with accessible, credible climate impact information, and 3) build a network of experts and stakeholders to support ongoing assessment efforts and knowledge sharing. This presentation will report on our experience with developing and maintaining a diverse stakeholder network. We will describe our efforts to connect with stakeholders before, during, and after the development of assessment reports and share the top themes that emerged from our pre-assessment inquires and other interactions.

  8. Assessment of pathological changes associated with chronic allograft rejection and tolerance in two experimental models of rat lung transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumura, Y; Marchevsky, A; Zuo, X J; Kass, R M; Matloff, J M; Jordan, S C

    1995-06-15

    Lung transplantation is now routinely performed for a wide range of end-stage cardiopulmonary disorders. Despite overcoming the problems associated with early acute rejection, chronic rejection (CR) in the form of obliterative bronchiolitis has emerged as the primary cause of late graft loss. The mechanisms involved in the development of CR of lung allografts are poorly understood, and no effective therapy is currently available. To better understand the pathological events associated with CR and tolerance, we examined two models of lung allograft rejection established in our laboratory. First, we exchanged left lung allografts between moderately histoincompatible inbred rat strains (WKY-->F344: n = 42 and F344-->WKY: n = 40). The WKY-->F344 model was previously shown to develop spontaneous tolerance, while the converse model (F344-->WKY) showed persistent acute rejection. The purpose of this investigation was to assess histopathological changes associated with long-term grafts left in place up to 140 days after transplant. To confirm that tolerance had developed, skin-grafting experiments were performed. Five skin grafts from each strain were placed on lung allograft recipients on day 35 after transplant and skin allograft survival was assessed and compared with controls. Acute rejection (AR) was graded histologically (stage O-IV) and the pathologic intensity of inflammation and CR were graded (0-4: 0 = 0%, 1 = 1-25%, 2 = 26-50%, 3 = 51-75%, and 4 = 76-100%) on percentage of involvement with the following categories being examined: (a) lymphocytic infiltration (perivascular, peribronchial, and peribronchiolar) and (b) vasculitis, edema, hemorrhage, and necrosis. Finally, chronic rejection was diagnosed by the presence of intimal hyperplasia, interstitial fibrosis, peribronchiolar fibrosis, bronchiolitis obliterans, and bronchiectasis. The WKY-->F344 animals showed progressive AR (stage III, day 21). Thereafter, the AR subsided spontaneously and was stage 0 on day

  9. Useful models for simulating policies to induce technological change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rivers, Nic; Jaccard, Mark

    2006-01-01

    Conventional top-down and bottom-up energy-economy models have limitations that affect their usefulness to policy-makers. Efforts to develop hybrid models, that incorporate valuable aspects of these two frameworks, may be more useful by representing technologies in the energy-economy explicitly while also representing more realistically the way in which businesses and consumers choose between those technologies. This representation allows for the realistic simulation of a wide range of technology-specific regulations and fiscal incentives alongside economy-wide fiscal incentives and disincentives. These policies can be assessed based on the costs required to reach a goal in the medium term, as well as on the degree to which they induce technological change that affects costs over long time periods

  10. Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2011 - part 2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - estimating impacts and valuing damages on a sectoral basis.

  11. Assessing uncertainties in crop and pasture ensemble model simulations of productivity and N2O emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simulation models are extensively used to predict agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the uncertainties of (reduced) model ensemble simulations have not been assessed systematically for variables affecting food security and climate change mitigation, within multisp...

  12. A parsimonious dynamic model for river water quality assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannina, Giorgio; Viviani, Gaspare

    2010-01-01

    Water quality modelling is of crucial importance for the assessment of physical, chemical, and biological changes in water bodies. Mathematical approaches to water modelling have become more prevalent over recent years. Different model types ranging from detailed physical models to simplified conceptual models are available. Actually, a possible middle ground between detailed and simplified models may be parsimonious models that represent the simplest approach that fits the application. The appropriate modelling approach depends on the research goal as well as on data available for correct model application. When there is inadequate data, it is mandatory to focus on a simple river water quality model rather than detailed ones. The study presents a parsimonious river water quality model to evaluate the propagation of pollutants in natural rivers. The model is made up of two sub-models: a quantity one and a quality one. The model employs a river schematisation that considers different stretches according to the geometric characteristics and to the gradient of the river bed. Each stretch is represented with a conceptual model of a series of linear channels and reservoirs. The channels determine the delay in the pollution wave and the reservoirs cause its dispersion. To assess the river water quality, the model employs four state variables: DO, BOD, NH(4), and NO. The model was applied to the Savena River (Italy), which is the focus of a European-financed project in which quantity and quality data were gathered. A sensitivity analysis of the model output to the model input or parameters was done based on the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation methodology. The results demonstrate the suitability of such a model as a tool for river water quality management.

  13. Integrated Climate Change Impacts Assessment in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Meyer, R.; Anderson, M.; Bromirski, P. D.

    2014-12-01

    This paper summarizes lessons learned from an ongoing series of climate change assessments for California, conducted by the scientific community and State and local agencies. A series of three Assessments have considered vulnerability and adaptation issues for both managed and natural systems. California's vulnerability is many faceted, arising because of an exceptionally drought prone climate, open coast and large estuary exposure to sea level rise, sensitive ecosystems and complex human footprint and economy. Key elements of the assessments have been a common set of climate and sea-level rise scenarios, based upon IPCC GCM simulations. Regionalized and localized output from GCM projections was provided to research teams investigating water supply, agriculture, coastal resources, ecosystem services, forestry, public health, and energy demand and hydropower generation. The assessment results are helping to investigate the broad range of uncertainty that is inherent in climate projections, and users are becoming better equipped to process an envelope of potential climate and impacts. Some projections suggest that without changes in California's present fresh-water delivery system, serious water shortages would take place, but that technical solutions are possible. Under a warmer climate, wildfire vulnerability is heightened markedly in some areas--estimated increases in burned area by the end of the 21st Century exceed 100% of the historical area burned in much of the forested areas of Northern California Along California coast and estuaries, projected rise in mean sea level will accelerate flooding occurrences, prompting the need for better education and preparedness. Many policymakers and agency personnel in California are factoring in results from the assessments and recognize the need for a sustained assessment process. An ongoing challenge, of course, is to achieve more engagement with a broader community of decision makers, and notably with the private sector.

  14. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

  15. Assessment of safety culture: Changing regulatory approach in Hungary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ronaky, Jozsef; Toth, Andras

    2002-01-01

    Hungarian Atomic Energy Authority (HAEA) is changing its inspection practice and assessment methods of safety performance and safety culture in operating nuclear facilities. The new approach emphasises integrated team inspection of safety cornerstones and systematic assessment of safety performance of operators. (author)

  16. Assessing a Top-Down Modeling Approach for Seasonal Scale Snow Sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luce, C. H.; Lute, A.

    2017-12-01

    Mechanistic snow models are commonly applied to assess changes to snowpacks in a warming climate. Such assessments involve a number of assumptions about details of weather at daily to sub-seasonal time scales. Models of season-scale behavior can provide contrast for evaluating behavior at time scales more in concordance with climate warming projections. Such top-down models, however, involve a degree of empiricism, with attendant caveats about the potential of a changing climate to affect calibrated relationships. We estimated the sensitivity of snowpacks from 497 Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations in the western U.S. based on differences in climate between stations (spatial analog). We examined the sensitivity of April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) and mean snow residence time (SRT) to variations in Nov-Mar precipitation and average Nov-Mar temperature using multivariate local-fit regressions. We tested the modeling approach using a leave-one-out cross-validation as well as targeted two-fold non-random cross-validations contrasting, for example, warm vs. cold years, dry vs. wet years, and north vs. south stations. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values for the validations were strong for April 1 SWE, ranging from 0.71 to 0.90, and still reasonable, but weaker, for SRT, in the range of 0.64 to 0.81. From these ranges, we exclude validations where the training data do not represent the range of target data. A likely reason for differences in validation between the two metrics is that the SWE model reflects the influence of conservation of mass while using temperature as an indicator of the season-scale energy balance; in contrast, SRT depends more strongly on the energy balance aspects of the problem. Model forms with lower numbers of parameters generally validated better than more complex model forms, with the caveat that pseudoreplication could encourage selection of more complex models when validation contrasts were weak. Overall, the split sample validations

  17. Positional Accuracy Assessment for Effective Shoreline Change ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael

    2016-06-01

    Jun 1, 2016 ... as backdrop in GIS environment. Positional error of ... integrated dataset obviously bore the cumulative effect of the input datasets. ... change. The shoreline, which is the interface between land ... modelling, which enables future shoreline change trend to ..... as gaps due to cloud cover and limitation of the.

  18. Progress in modelling agricultural impacts of and adaptations to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rötter, R P; Hoffmann, M P; Koch, M; Müller, C

    2018-06-01

    Modelling is a key tool to explore agricultural impacts of and adaptations to climate change. Here we report recent progress made especially referring to the large project initiatives MACSUR and AgMIP; in particular, in modelling potential crop impacts from field to global using multi-model ensembles. We identify two main fields where further progress is necessary: a more mechanistic understanding of climate impacts and management options for adaptation and mitigation; and focusing on cropping systems and integrative multi-scale assessments instead of single season and crops, especially in complex tropical and neglected but important cropping systems. Stronger linking of experimentation with statistical and eco-physiological crop modelling could facilitate the necessary methodological advances. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Analysis of Critical Issues in Biosphere Assessment Modelling and Site Investigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Egan, M.J.; Thorne, M.C.; Little, R.H.; Pasco, R.F. [Quintessa Limited, Henley-on-Thames (United Kingdom)

    2003-07-01

    The aim of this document is to present a critical review of issues concerned with the treatment of the biosphere and geosphere-biosphere interface in long-term performance assessment studies for nuclear waste disposal in Sweden. The review covers three main areas of investigation: a review of SKB's plans for undertaking site investigations at candidate locations for the development of a deep geological repository for spent fuel; identification of critical uncertainties associated with SKB's treatment of the geosphere-biosphere interface in recent performance assessments; and a preliminary modelling investigation of the significance of features, events and processes in the near-surface environment in terms of their effect on the accumulation and redistribution of radionuclides at the geosphere-biosphere interface. Overall, SKB's proposals for site investigations are considered to be comprehensive and, if they can be carried out to the specification presented, will constitute a benchmark that other waste management organisations will have to work hard to emulate. The main concern is that expertise for undertaking the investigations and reporting the results could be stretched very thin. The authors have also identified weaknesses in the documentation concerning the collection of evidence for environmental change and on developing scenarios for future environmental change. A fundamental assumption adopted in the renewed assessment of the SFR 1 repository, which is not discussed or justified in any of the documentation that has been reviewed, is that radionuclides enter the water column of the coastal and lake models directly, without passing first through the bed sediments. The modelling study reported herein suggests that SKB's models are robust to range of alternative conceptual descriptions relating to the geosphere-biosphere interface. There are however situations, in which contaminated groundwater is released via sediment rather than directly

  20. Analysis of Critical Issues in Biosphere Assessment Modelling and Site Investigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egan, M.J.; Thorne, M.C.; Little, R.H.; Pasco, R.F.

    2003-07-01

    The aim of this document is to present a critical review of issues concerned with the treatment of the biosphere and geosphere-biosphere interface in long-term performance assessment studies for nuclear waste disposal in Sweden. The review covers three main areas of investigation: a review of SKB's plans for undertaking site investigations at candidate locations for the development of a deep geological repository for spent fuel; identification of critical uncertainties associated with SKB's treatment of the geosphere-biosphere interface in recent performance assessments; and a preliminary modelling investigation of the significance of features, events and processes in the near-surface environment in terms of their effect on the accumulation and redistribution of radionuclides at the geosphere-biosphere interface. Overall, SKB's proposals for site investigations are considered to be comprehensive and, if they can be carried out to the specification presented, will constitute a benchmark that other waste management organisations will have to work hard to emulate. The main concern is that expertise for undertaking the investigations and reporting the results could be stretched very thin. The authors have also identified weaknesses in the documentation concerning the collection of evidence for environmental change and on developing scenarios for future environmental change. A fundamental assumption adopted in the renewed assessment of the SFR 1 repository, which is not discussed or justified in any of the documentation that has been reviewed, is that radionuclides enter the water column of the coastal and lake models directly, without passing first through the bed sediments. The modelling study reported herein suggests that SKB's models are robust to range of alternative conceptual descriptions relating to the geosphere-biosphere interface. There are however situations, in which contaminated groundwater is released via sediment rather than directly to the water column