WorldWideScience

Sample records for change adaptation assessments

  1. Assessing urban adaptive capacity to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araya-Muñoz, Dahyann; Metzger, Marc J; Stuart, Neil; Wilson, A Meriwether W; Alvarez, Luis

    2016-12-01

    Despite the growing number of studies focusing on urban vulnerability to climate change, adaptive capacity, which is a key component of the IPCC definition of vulnerability, is rarely assessed quantitatively. We examine the capacity of adaptation in the Concepción Metropolitan Area, Chile. A flexible methodology based on spatial fuzzy modelling was developed to standardise and aggregate, through a stepwise approach, seventeen indicators derived from widely available census statistical data into an adaptive capacity index. The results indicate that all the municipalities in the CMA increased their level of adaptive capacity between 1992 and 2002. However, the relative differences between municipalities did not change significantly over the studied timeframe. Fuzzy overlay allowed us to standardise and to effectively aggregate indicators with differing ranges and granularities of attribute values into an overall index. It also provided a conceptually sound and reproducible means of exploring the interplay of many indicators that individually influence adaptive capacity. Furthermore, it captured the complex, aggregated and continued nature of the adaptive capacity, favouring to deal with gaps of data and knowledge associated with the concept of adaptive capacity. The resulting maps can help identify municipalities where adaptive capacity is weak and identify which components of adaptive capacity need strengthening. Identification of these capacity conditions can stimulate dialogue amongst policymakers and stakeholders regarding how to manage urban areas and how to prioritise resources for urban development in ways that can also improve adaptive capacity and thus reduce vulnerability to climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Integrative Assessment of Mitigation, Impacts, and Adaptation to Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Nakicenovic, N.; Nordhaus, W.D.; Richels, R.; Toth, F.L.

    1994-01-01

    This volume presents the proceedings of the second international workshop held at IIASA in October 1993 assessing the current state of integrated assessments. Numerous models and less formalized approaches analyze anthropogenic sources of greenhouse gas emissions, their concentrations in the atmosphere, the resulting climate forcing, impacts of the induced climate change on the economy and other human activities, as well as possible mitigation and adaptation strategies. Studies that include a...

  3. Assessment of Coastal Governance for Climate Change Adaptation in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ojwang, Lenice; Rosendo, Sergio; Celliers, Louis; Obura, David; Muiti, Anastasia; Kamula, James; Mwangi, Maina

    2017-11-01

    The coastline of Kenya already experiences effects of climate change, adding to existing pressures such as urbanization. Integrated coastal management (ICM) is increasingly recognized as a key policy response to deal with the multiple challenges facing coastal zones, including climate change. It can create an enabling governance environment for effective local action on climate change by facilitating a structured approach to dealing with coastal issues. It encompasses the actions of a wide range of actors, including local governments close to people and their activities affected by climate change. Functioning ICM also offers opportunities for reducing risks and building resilience. This article applied a modified capitals approach framework (CAF), consisting of five "capitals," to assess the status of county government capacity to respond to climate change within the context of coastal governance in three county governments in Kenya. The baseline was defined in terms of governance relating to the implementation of the interrelated policy systems of ICM and coastal climate change adaptation (CCA). The CAF framework provided a systematic approach to building a governance baseline against which to assess the progress of county governments in responding to climate change. It identified gaps in human capacity, financial resource allocation to adaptation and access to climate change information. Furthermore, it showed that having well-developed institutions, including regulatory frameworks at the national level can facilitate but does not automatically enable adaptation at the county level.

  4. Assessing institutional capacities to adapt to climate change - integrating psychological dimensions in the Adaptive Capacity Wheel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grothmann, T.; Grecksch, K.; Winges, M.; Siebenhüner, B.

    2013-03-01

    Several case studies show that "soft social factors" (e.g. institutions, perceptions, social capital) strongly affect social capacities to adapt to climate change. Many soft social factors can probably be changed faster than "hard social factors" (e.g. economic and technological development) and are therefore particularly important for building social capacities. However, there are almost no methodologies for the systematic assessment of soft social factors. Gupta et al. (2010) have developed the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW) for assessing the adaptive capacity of institutions. The ACW differentiates 22 criteria to assess six dimensions: variety, learning capacity, room for autonomous change, leadership, availability of resources, fair governance. To include important psychological factors we extended the ACW by two dimensions: "adaptation motivation" refers to actors' motivation to realise, support and/or promote adaptation to climate. "Adaptation belief" refers to actors' perceptions of realisability and effectiveness of adaptation measures. We applied the extended ACW to assess adaptive capacities of four sectors - water management, flood/coastal protection, civil protection and regional planning - in North Western Germany. The assessments of adaptation motivation and belief provided a clear added value. The results also revealed some methodological problems in applying the ACW (e.g. overlap of dimensions), for which we propose methodological solutions.

  5. Assessing institutional capacities to adapt to climate change: integrating psychological dimensions in the Adaptive Capacity Wheel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grothmann, T.; Grecksch, K.; Winges, M.; Siebenhüner, B.

    2013-12-01

    Several case studies show that social factors like institutions, perceptions and social capital strongly affect social capacities to adapt to climate change. Together with economic and technological development they are important for building social capacities. However, there are almost no methodologies for the systematic assessment of social factors. After reviewing existing methodologies we identify the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW) by Gupta et al. (2010), developed for assessing the adaptive capacity of institutions, as the most comprehensive and operationalised framework to assess social factors. The ACW differentiates 22 criteria to assess 6 dimensions: variety, learning capacity, room for autonomous change, leadership, availability of resources, fair governance. To include important psychological factors we extended the ACW by two dimensions: "adaptation motivation" refers to actors' motivation to realise, support and/or promote adaptation to climate; "adaptation belief" refers to actors' perceptions of realisability and effectiveness of adaptation measures. We applied the extended ACW to assess adaptive capacities of four sectors - water management, flood/coastal protection, civil protection and regional planning - in northwestern Germany. The assessments of adaptation motivation and belief provided a clear added value. The results also revealed some methodological problems in applying the ACW (e.g. overlap of dimensions), for which we propose methodological solutions.

  6. Assessing climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    There is a considerable knowledge gap with respect to climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation to increased climate variability and change. In this paper, using the trade off analysis model, the impact of climate change on peoples' livelihoods and possible adaptation strategies to increase the resilience and ...

  7. A vulnerability and risk assessment of SEPTA's regional rail : a transit climate change adaptation assessment pilot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    This final report for the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) Transit Climate Change Adaptation Assessment Pilot describes the actions : taken, information gathered, analyses performed, and lessons learned throughout the pilot project. This report d...

  8. Assessing the adaptive capacity of the Ontario wine industry for climate change adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pickering K

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Kerrie Pickering,1 Ryan Plummer,1,2 Tony Shaw,3,4 Gary Pickering1,4,5 1Environmental Sustainability Research Centre, Brock University, St Catharines, ON, Canada; 2Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; 3Department of Geography, 4Cool Climate Oenology and Viticulture Institute, 5Department of Psychology, Brock University, St Catharines, ON, Canada Background: Wine regions throughout the world are experiencing climate change characterized by the gradual alterations in growing seasons, temperature, precipitation, and the occurrences of extreme weather events that have significant consequences for quality wine production. Adapting to these new challenges depends largely on the present and future adaptive capacity of the grape growers, winemakers, and supporting institutions in order to minimize the impacts of climate change on grape yield and wine quality. Accordingly, the objective of this study was to develop a conceptual framework for assessing the adaptive capacity of a grape or wine region and apply it in the context of the Ontario wine industry. The framework consists of a three tiered structure, comprising eight operational and strategic determinants (financial, institutional, technological, political, knowledge, perception, social capital, and diversity. A comprehensive questionnaire was created from this framework consisting of 26 statements to which participants indicated their level of agreement. A total of 42 Ontario wine industry members completed the questionnaire via an on line survey. Results: The determinants related to perception, diversity, and knowledge have the highest degree of capacity, while political and technological determinants show the least. Overall, stakeholders are aware of both negative and positive impacts climate change could have on wine production. Results are discussed to explore opportunities to enhance adaptive capacity in the grape/wine community. Many stakeholders have already

  9. Assessing adaptation to the health risks of climate change: what guidance can existing frameworks provide?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Füssel, Hans-Martin

    2008-02-01

    Climate change adaptation assessments aim at assisting policy-makers in reducing the health risks associated with climate change and variability. This paper identifies key characteristics of the climate-health relationship and of the adaptation decision problem that require consideration in climate change adaptation assessments. It then analyzes whether these characteristics are appropriately considered in existing guidelines for climate impact and adaptation assessment and in pertinent conceptual models from environmental epidemiology. The review finds three assessment guidelines based on a generalized risk management framework to be most useful for guiding adaptation assessments of human health. Since none of them adequately addresses all key challenges of the adaptation decision problem, actual adaptation assessments need to combine elements from different guidelines. Established conceptual models from environmental epidemiology are found to be of limited relevance for assessing and planning adaptation to climate change since the prevailing toxicological model of environmental health is not applicable to many climate-sensitive health risks.

  10. Climate change impact assessment and adaptation under uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wardekker, J.A.

    2011-01-01

    Expected impacts of climate change are associated with large uncertainties, particularly at the local level. Adaptation scientists, practitioners, and decision-makers will need to find ways to cope with these uncertainties. Several approaches have been suggested as ‘uncertainty-proof’ to some

  11. Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is likely to affect the water cycle by influencing the precipitation patterns. It is important to integrate the anticipated changes into the design of urban drainage in response to the increased risk level in cities. This paper presents a pluvial flood risk assessment framework...... to identify and assess adaptation options in the urban context. An integrated approach is adopted by incorporating climate change impact assessment, flood inundation modeling, economic tool, and risk assessment, hereby developing a step-by-step process for cost-benefit assessment of climate change adaptation...

  12. Anticipatory flood risk assessment under climate change scenarios: from assessment to adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neuhold, C.; Hogl, K.; Seher, W.; Nachtnebel, H. P.; Scherhaufer, P.; Nordbeck, R.; Löschner, L.

    2012-04-01

    According to the Centre for Research on Epidemiology Disasters, floods are the type of natural disasters that affected the highest number of people from 1900 to 2008 worldwide. Specifically, Austria suffered from heavy floods in recent years, affecting thousands of people and causing billions of Euro in economic losses. Although there is yet no proof that these accumulated extreme events are a direct consequence of climate change, they may indicate what can be expected. Currently, comprehensive climate modelling research is being conducted for Austria that may lay the foundation for enhanced climate impact assessments (regional climate modelling under consideration of different global models and varying scenarios). However, the models so far have neither special focus on Austria nor a distinct definition of boundary conditions for Austria. Therefore, results of climate models are considered as too unreliable and inconsistent for predicting changes in flood characteristics, especially at a regional to local scale. As a consequence, adaptation strategies have to be derived from integrated impact analyses that are based on dissecting mechanisms and drivers for changes and not only on the dimension of climate change. This paper discusses a dynamic flood risk assessment methodology considering potential spatial and temporal developments of hazard and vulnerability under climate change scenarios. The approach integrates quantifiable results from assessments of hazard, exposure and sensitivity and the qualitative, interview based, assessment of adaptive capacities. Flood risk assessment will be conducted for the current state in Austria and enhanced by potential (1) flood scenarios increased by a climate change allowance (2) demographic development scenarios (3) land-use change scenarios and (4) adaptation policy assessment to identify regions especially prone to flooding. Comparing the current state with various anticipatory hazard and vulnerability scenarios provides

  13. Changes in population susceptibility to heat and cold over time: assessing adaptation to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbuthnott, Katherine; Hajat, Shakoor; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris

    2016-03-08

    examined the risk of cold. In contrast to the changes in heat related mortality observed, only one found a significant decrease in cold related mortality in later time periods. There is evidence that across a number of different settings, population susceptibility to heat and heatwaves has been decreasing. These changes in heat related susceptibility have important implications for health impact assessments of future heat related risk. A similar decrease in cold related mortality was not shown. Adaptation to heat has implications for future planning, particularly in urban areas, with anticipated increases in temperature due to climate change.

  14. A health impact assessment framework for assessing vulnerability and adaptation planning for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Helen; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne

    2014-12-01

    This paper presents a detailed description of an approach designed to investigate the application of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework to assess the potential health impacts of climate change. A HIA framework has been combined with key climate change terminology and concepts. The fundamental premise of this framework is an understanding of the interactions between people, the environment and climate. The diversity and complexity of these interactions can hinder much needed action on the critical health issue of climate change. The objectives of the framework are to improve the methodology for understanding and assessing the risks associated with potential health impacts of climate change, and to provide decision-makers with information that can facilitate the development of effective adaptation plans. While the process presented here provides guidance with respect to this task it is not intended to be prescriptive. As such, aspects of the process can be amended to suit the scope and available resources of each project. A series of working tables has been developed to assist in the collation of evidence throughout the process. The framework has been tested in a number of locations including Western Australia, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Nauru.

  15. A Health Impact Assessment Framework for Assessing Vulnerability and Adaptation Planning for Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen Brown

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a detailed description of an approach designed to investigate the application of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA framework to assess the potential health impacts of climate change. A HIA framework has been combined with key climate change terminology and concepts. The fundamental premise of this framework is an understanding of the interactions between people, the environment and climate. The diversity and complexity of these interactions can hinder much needed action on the critical health issue of climate change. The objectives of the framework are to improve the methodology for understanding and assessing the risks associated with potential health impacts of climate change, and to provide decision-makers with information that can facilitate the development of effective adaptation plans. While the process presented here provides guidance with respect to this task it is not intended to be prescriptive. As such, aspects of the process can be amended to suit the scope and available resources of each project. A series of working tables has been developed to assist in the collation of evidence throughout the process. The framework has been tested in a number of locations including Western Australia, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Nauru.

  16. A Health Impact Assessment Framework for Assessing Vulnerability and Adaptation Planning for Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Helen; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a detailed description of an approach designed to investigate the application of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework to assess the potential health impacts of climate change. A HIA framework has been combined with key climate change terminology and concepts. The fundamental premise of this framework is an understanding of the interactions between people, the environment and climate. The diversity and complexity of these interactions can hinder much needed action on the critical health issue of climate change. The objectives of the framework are to improve the methodology for understanding and assessing the risks associated with potential health impacts of climate change, and to provide decision-makers with information that can facilitate the development of effective adaptation plans. While the process presented here provides guidance with respect to this task it is not intended to be prescriptive. As such, aspects of the process can be amended to suit the scope and available resources of each project. A series of working tables has been developed to assist in the collation of evidence throughout the process. The framework has been tested in a number of locations including Western Australia, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Nauru. PMID:25514146

  17. Assessment of Climate Change Adaptive Strategies in Small ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Animals are intrinsically dependent on the environment, and any fluctuations in weather and climate can affect them through water and land changes, such as desertification, feed and water availability. Climate change will not only impact the health and welfare of animals, but also the more than a billion people who depend ...

  18. Assessment of coastal governance for climate change adaptation in Kenya

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ojwang, L

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The coastline of Kenya already experiences effects of climate change, adding to existing pressures such as urbanization. Integrated coastal management (ICM) is increasingly recognized as a key policy response to deal with the multiple challenges...

  19. Using a social justice and health framework to assess European climate change adaptation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boeckmann, Melanie; Zeeb, Hajo

    2014-11-28

    Climate change puts pressure on existing health vulnerabilities through higher frequency of extreme weather events, changes in disease vector distribution or exacerbated air pollution. Climate change adaptation policies may hold potential to reduce societal inequities. We assessed the role of public health and social justice in European climate change adaptation using a three-fold approach: a document analysis, a critical discourse analysis of a subgroup of strategies, and a ranking of strategies against our social justice framework. The ranking approach favored planning that includes various adaptation types, social issues and infrastructure changes. Themes on values identified in the five subgroup documents showed that risks are perceived as contradictory, technology is viewed as savior, responsibilities need to be negotiated, and social justice is advocated by only a few countries. Of 21 strategy documents assessed overall, those from Austria, England and Sweden received the highest scores in the ranking. Our qualitative assessment showed that in European adaptation planning, progress could still be made through community involvement into adaptation decisions, consistent consideration of social and demographic determinants, and a stronger link between infrastructural adaptation and the health sector. Overall, a social justice framework can serve as an evaluation guideline for adaptation policy documents.

  20. Addressing Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Together: A Global Assessment of Agriculture and Forestry Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kongsager, Rico; Locatelli, Bruno; Chazarin, Florie

    2016-01-01

    Adaptation and mitigation share the ultimate purpose of reducing climate change impacts. However, they tend to be considered separately in projects and policies because of their different objectives and scales. Agriculture and forestry are related to both adaptation and mitigation: they contribute...... to greenhouse gas emissions and removals, are vulnerable to climate variations, and form part of adaptive strategies for rural livelihoods. We assessed how climate change project design documents (PDDs) considered a joint contribution to adaptation and mitigation in forestry and agriculture in the tropics......, by analyzing 201 PDDs from adaptation funds, mitigation instruments, and project standards [e.g., climate community and biodiversity (CCB)]. We analyzed whether PDDs established for one goal reported an explicit contribution to the other (i.e., whether mitigation PDDs contributed to adaptation and vice versa...

  1. Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation using an economic pluvial flood risk framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    It is anticipated that climate change is likely to lead to an increasing risk level of flooding in cities in northern Europe. One challenging question is how to best address the increasing flood risk and assess the costs and benefits of adapting to such changes. We established an integrated...... uncertainty bounds propagated through the evaluation and identify the relative contribution of inherent uncertainties in the assessment. The case study is a small urban catchment located in Skibhus, Odense where no significant city development is anticipated. Two adaptation scenarios, namely pipe enlargement...... adaptation option on a basis of assessed economic indicators, e.g. net benefits (NPV), cost-recovery period (Y) and the difference in calculated net benefits (ΔNPV) when comparing two adaptation alternatives. Pipe enlargement turned out to be more economically beneficial in comparison to local infiltration...

  2. Integrated assessment of farm level adaptation to climate change in agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandryk, M.

    2016-01-01

    The findings of the thesis allowed assessing plausible futures of agriculture in Flevoland around 2050 with insights in effective adaptation to climate change at different levels. Besides empirical findings, this thesis contributed methodologically to the portfolio of climate change impact and

  3. International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation Assessments: Conference summary and statement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-08-01

    The International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation Assessments was held in St. Petersburg, Russian Federation, from May 22--25, 1995. Sponsored by the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, the US Country Studies Program, and the directorate General for International Cooperation of the Netherlands Government, it was the first international conference focusing exclusively on adaptation to climate change. More than 100 people from 29 countries on five continents participated. The conference primarily addressed measures to anticipate the potential effects of climate change to minimize negative effects and take advantage of any positive effects. The focus was on what governments, institutions, and individuals can do to prepare for climate change. The conference dealt with two major topics: What adaptation options are most effective and efficient in anticipating climate change and what methods should be used to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of adaptation options. Brief summaries are given from the following sessions on agriculture; Water resources; coastal resources; ecosystems and forests; fisheries; human settlements; water and agriculture; and the panel session on international adaptation in national communications and other development plans and needs for technical assistance.

  4. Uncertainty assessment of urban pluvial flood risk in a context of climate change adaptation decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian

    2014-01-01

    There has been a significant increase in climatic extremes in many regions. In Central and Northern Europe, this has led to more frequent and more severe floods. Along with improved flood modelling technologies this has enabled development of economic assessment of climate change adaptation...... basic assumptions in the economic analysis and the hydrological model, but also from the projection of future societies to local climate change impacts and suitable adaptation options. This presents a challenge to decision makers when trying to identify robust measures. We present an integrated...... of risk changes over time. The overall uncertainty is then attributed to six bulk processes: climate change impact, urban rainfall-runoff processes, stage-depth functions, unit cost of repair, cost of adaptation measures, and discount rate. We apply the approach on an urban hydrological catchment...

  5. Global assessment of technological innovation for climate change adaptation and mitigation in developing world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adenle, Ademola A; Azadi, Hossein; Arbiol, Joseph

    2015-09-15

    Concerns about mitigating and adapting to climate change resulted in renewing the incentive for agricultural research investments and developing further innovation priorities around the world particularly in developing countries. In the near future, development of new agricultural measures and proper diffusion of technologies will greatly influence the ability of farmers in adaptation and mitigation to climate change. Using bibliometric approaches through output of academic journal publications and patent-based data, we assess the impact of research and development (R&D) for new and existing technologies within the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation. We show that many developing countries invest limited resources for R&D in relevant technologies that have great potential for mitigation and adaption in agricultural production. We also discuss constraints including weak infrastructure, limited research capacity, lack of credit facilities and technology transfer that may hinder the application of innovation in tackling the challenges of climate change. A range of policy measures is also suggested to overcome identified constraints and to ensure that potentials of innovation for climate change mitigation and adaptation are realized. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Addressing Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Together: A Global Assessment of Agriculture and Forestry Projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kongsager, Rico; Locatelli, Bruno; Chazarin, Florie

    2016-02-01

    Adaptation and mitigation share the ultimate purpose of reducing climate change impacts. However, they tend to be considered separately in projects and policies because of their different objectives and scales. Agriculture and forestry are related to both adaptation and mitigation: they contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and removals, are vulnerable to climate variations, and form part of adaptive strategies for rural livelihoods. We assessed how climate change project design documents (PDDs) considered a joint contribution to adaptation and mitigation in forestry and agriculture in the tropics, by analyzing 201 PDDs from adaptation funds, mitigation instruments, and project standards [e.g., climate community and biodiversity (CCB)]. We analyzed whether PDDs established for one goal reported an explicit contribution to the other (i.e., whether mitigation PDDs contributed to adaptation and vice versa). We also examined whether the proposed activities or expected outcomes allowed for potential contributions to the two goals. Despite the separation between the two goals in international and national institutions, 37% of the PDDs explicitly mentioned a contribution to the other objective, although only half of those substantiated it. In addition, most adaptation (90%) and all mitigation PDDs could potentially report a contribution to at least partially to the other goal. Some adaptation project developers were interested in mitigation for the prospect of carbon funding, whereas mitigation project developers integrated adaptation to achieve greater long-term sustainability or to attain CCB certification. International and national institutions can provide incentives for projects to harness synergies and avoid trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation.

  7. Assessment of vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change and adaptation planning in Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matin, M. A.; Chitale, V. S.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding ecosystem level vulnerability of forests and dependence of local communities on these ecosystems is a first step towards developing effective adaptation strategies. As forests are important components of livelihoods system for a large percentage of the population in the Himalayan region, they offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities. Increased frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress, changes in winter ecology, and pest and fire outbreaksunder climate change scenarios could fundamentally alter the composition, productivity and biogeography of forests affecting the potential ecosystem services offered and forest-based livelihoods. Hence, forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and the development of a knowledgebase to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is identified as an urgent need. Climate change vulnerability is measured as a function of exposure, sensitivity and the adaptive capacity of the system towards climate variability and extreme events. Effective adaptation to climate change depends on the availability of two important prerequisites: a) information on what, where, and how to adapt, and b) availability of resources to implement the adaptation measures. In the present study, we introduce the concept of two way multitier approach, which can support effective identification and implementation of adaptation measures in Nepal and the framework can be replicated in other countries in the HKH region. The assessment of overall vulnerability of forests comprises of two components: 1) understanding the relationship between exposure and sensitivity and positive feedback from adaptive capacity of forests; 2) quantifying the dependence of local communities on these ecosystems. We use climate datasets from Bioclim and biophysical products from MODIS, alongwith field datasets. We report that most of the forests along the high altitude areas and few

  8. Health impacts of climate change in the Solomon Islands: an assessment and adaptation action plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne

    2014-06-25

    The Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable to the environmental changes wrought by global climate change such as sea level rise, more frequent and intense extreme weather events and increasing temperatures. The potential biophysical changes likely to affect these countries have been identified and it is important that consideration be given to the implications of these changes on the health of their citizens. The potential health impacts of climatic changes on the population of the Solomon Islands were assessed through the use of a Health Impact Assessment framework. The process used a collaborative and consultative approach with local experts to identify the impacts to health that could arise from local environmental changes, considered the risks associated with these and proposed appropriate potential adaptive responses. Participants included knowledgeable representatives from the biophysical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food sectors. The risk assessments considered both the likelihood and consequences of the health impacts occurring using a qualitative process. To mitigate the adverse effects of the health impacts, an extensive range of potential adaptation strategies were developed. The overall process provided an approach that could be used for further assessments as well as an extensive range of responses which could be used by sectors and to assist future decision making associated with the Solomon Islands' responses to climate change.

  9. Health Impacts of Climate Change in the Solomon Islands: An Assessment and Adaptation Action Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne

    2014-01-01

    The Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable to the environmental changes wrought by global climate change such as sea level rise, more frequent and intense extreme weather events and increasing temperatures. The potential biophysical changes likely to affect these countries have been identified and it is important that consideration be given to the implications of these changes on the health of their citizens. The potential health impacts of climatic changes on the population of the Solomon Islands were assessed through the use of a Health Impact Assessment framework. The process used a collaborative and consultative approach with local experts to identify the impacts to health that could arise from local environmental changes, considered the risks associated with these and proposed appropriate potential adaptive responses. Participants included knowledgeable representatives from the biophysical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food sectors. The risk assessments considered both the likelihood and consequences of the health impacts occurring using a qualitative process. To mitigate the adverse effects of the health impacts, an extensive range of potential adaptation strategies were developed. The overall process provided an approach that could be used for further assessments as well as an extensive range of responses which could be used by sectors and to assist future decision making associated with the Solomon Islands’ responses to climate change. PMID:25168977

  10. Assessing the components of adaptive capacity to improve conservation and management efforts under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicotra, Adrienne; Beever, Erik; Robertson, Amanda; Hofmann, Gretchen; O’Leary, John

    2015-01-01

    Natural-resource managers and other conservation practitioners are under unprecedented pressure to categorize and quantify the vulnerability of natural systems based on assessment of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species to climate change. Despite the urgent need for these assessments, neither the theoretical basis of adaptive capacity nor the practical issues underlying its quantification has been articulated in a manner that is directly applicable to natural-resource management. Both are critical for researchers, managers, and other conservation practitioners to develop reliable strategies for assessing adaptive capacity. Drawing from principles of classical and contemporary research and examples from terrestrial, marine, plant, and animal systems, we examined broadly the theory behind the concept of adaptive capacity. We then considered how interdisciplinary, trait- and triage-based approaches encompassing the oft-overlooked interactions among components of adaptive capacity can be used to identify species and populations likely to have higher (or lower) adaptive capacity. We identified the challenges and value of such endeavors and argue for a concerted interdisciplinary research approach that combines ecology, ecological genetics, and eco-physiology to reflect the interacting components of adaptive capacity. We aimed to provide a basis for constructive discussion between natural-resource managers and researchers, discussions urgently needed to identify research directions that will deliver answers to real-world questions facing resource managers, other conservation practitioners, and policy makers. Directing research to both seek general patterns and identify ways to facilitate adaptive capacity of key species and populations within species, will enable conservation ecologists and resource managers to maximize returns on research and management investment and arrive at novel and dynamic management and policy decisions.

  11. Assessing the components of adaptive capacity to improve conservation and management efforts under global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicotra, Adrienne B; Beever, Erik A; Robertson, Amanda L; Hofmann, Gretchen E; O'Leary, John

    2015-10-01

    Natural-resource managers and other conservation practitioners are under unprecedented pressure to categorize and quantify the vulnerability of natural systems based on assessment of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species to climate change. Despite the urgent need for these assessments, neither the theoretical basis of adaptive capacity nor the practical issues underlying its quantification has been articulated in a manner that is directly applicable to natural-resource management. Both are critical for researchers, managers, and other conservation practitioners to develop reliable strategies for assessing adaptive capacity. Drawing from principles of classical and contemporary research and examples from terrestrial, marine, plant, and animal systems, we examined broadly the theory behind the concept of adaptive capacity. We then considered how interdisciplinary, trait- and triage-based approaches encompassing the oft-overlooked interactions among components of adaptive capacity can be used to identify species and populations likely to have higher (or lower) adaptive capacity. We identified the challenges and value of such endeavors and argue for a concerted interdisciplinary research approach that combines ecology, ecological genetics, and eco-physiology to reflect the interacting components of adaptive capacity. We aimed to provide a basis for constructive discussion between natural-resource managers and researchers, discussions urgently needed to identify research directions that will deliver answers to real-world questions facing resource managers, other conservation practitioners, and policy makers. Directing research to both seek general patterns and identify ways to facilitate adaptive capacity of key species and populations within species, will enable conservation ecologists and resource managers to maximize returns on research and management investment and arrive at novel and dynamic management and policy decisions. © 2015 Society for

  12. Accounting for adaptive capacity and uncertainty in assessments of species' climate-change vulnerability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wade, Alisa A; Hand, Brian K; Kovach, Ryan P; Luikart, Gordon; Whited, Diane C; Muhlfeld, Clint C

    2017-02-01

    Climate-change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are valuable tools for assessing species' vulnerability to climatic changes, yet failure to include measures of adaptive capacity and to account for sources of uncertainty may limit their effectiveness. We took a more comprehensive approach that incorporates exposure, sensitivity, and capacity to adapt to climate change. We applied our approach to anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and nonanadromous bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), threatened salmonids within the Columbia River Basin (U.S.A.). We quantified exposure on the basis of scenarios of future stream temperature and flow, and we represented sensitivity and capacity to adapt to climate change with metrics of habitat quality, demographic condition, and genetic diversity. Both species were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change at low elevations and in their southernmost habitats. However, vulnerability rankings varied widely depending on the factors (climate, habitat, demographic, and genetic) included in the CCVA and often differed for the 2 species at locations where they were sympatric. Our findings illustrate that CCVA results are highly sensitive to data inputs and that spatial differences can complicate multispecies conservation. Based on our results, we suggest that CCVAs be considered within a broader conceptual and computational framework and be used to refine hypotheses, guide research, and compare plausible scenarios of species' vulnerability to climate change. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  13. Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options in Vulnerable Agro-Landscapes in East-Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manful, D.; Tscherning, K.; Kersebaum, K.; Dietz, J.; Dietrich, O.; Gomani, C.; Böhm, H.; Büchner, M.; Lischeid, G.,; Ojoyi, M.,

    2009-04-01

    Climate change poses a risk to the livelihoods of large populations in the developing world, especially in Africa. In East Africa, climate change is expected to affect the spatial distribution and quantity of precipitation. The proposed project will assess aspects of climate impacts and adaptation options in Tanzania. The project will attempt to quantify (1) projected impacts including: variability in temperature, rainfall, flooding and drought (2) the affect changes in 1. will have on specific sectors namely agriculture (food security), water resources and ecosystem services. The cumulative effects of diminished surface and ground water flow on agricultural production coupled with increasing demand for food due to increase in human pressure will also be evaluated. Expected outputs of the project include (1) downscaled climate change scenarios for different IPCC emission scenarios (2) model based estimations of climate change impacts on hydrological cycle and assessment of land use options (3) scenarios of sustainable livelihoods and resilient agro-landscapes under climate change (4) assessment of adaptive practices and criteria for best adaptation practices. The presentation will focus on novel approaches that focus on the use of agro-ecosystem models to predict local and regional impacts of climate variability on food with specific needs of the end-user factored into model set-up process. In other words, model configurations adapted to the information needs of a specific end-user or audience are evaluated. The perception of risk within different end-users (small scale farmer versus a regional or state level policy maker) are explicitly taken into consideration with the overarching aim of maximizing the impact of the results obtained from computer-based simulations.

  14. Health impacts of climate change in Vanuatu: an assessment and adaptation action plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne; McIver, Lachlan

    2013-01-30

    Climate change is one of the greatest global challenges and Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable due to, among other factors, their geography, demography and level of economic development. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used as a basis for the consideration of the potential health impacts of changes in the climate on the population of Vanuatu, to assess the risks and propose a range of potential adaptive responses appropriate for Vanuatu. The HIA process involved the participation of a broad range of stakeholders including expert sector representatives in the areas of bio-physical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food, who provided informed comment and input into the understanding of the potential health impacts and development of adaptation strategies. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed with the application of a qualitative process that considered both the consequences and the likelihood of each of the potential health impacts occurring. Potential adaptation strategies and actions were developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by the various sectors in Vanuatu to contribute to future decision making processes associated with the health impacts of climate change.

  15. Adapting crop rotations to climate change in regional impact modelling assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teixeira, Edmar I; de Ruiter, John; Ausseil, Anne-Gaelle; Daigneault, Adam; Johnstone, Paul; Holmes, Allister; Tait, Andrew; Ewert, Frank

    2018-03-01

    The environmental and economic sustainability of future cropping systems depends on adaptation to climate change. Adaptation studies commonly rely on agricultural systems models to integrate multiple components of production systems such as crops, weather, soil and farmers' management decisions. Previous adaptation studies have mostly focused on isolated monocultures. However, in many agricultural regions worldwide, multi-crop rotations better represent local production systems. It is unclear how adaptation interventions influence crops grown in sequences. We develop a catchment-scale assessment to investigate the effects of tactical adaptations (choice of genotype and sowing date) on yield and underlying crop-soil factors of rotations. Based on locally surveyed data, a silage-maize followed by catch-crop-wheat rotation was simulated with the APSIM model for the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, two time periods (1985-2004 and 2080-2100) and six climate models across the Kaituna catchment in New Zealand. Results showed that direction and magnitude of climate change impacts, and the response to adaptation, varied spatially and were affected by rotation carryover effects due to agronomical (e.g. timing of sowing and harvesting) and soil (e.g. residual nitrogen, N) aspects. For example, by adapting maize to early-sowing dates under a warmer climate, there was an advance in catch crop establishment which enhanced residual soil N uptake. This dynamics, however, differed with local environment and choice of short- or long-cycle maize genotypes. Adaptation was insufficient to neutralize rotation yield losses in lowlands but consistently enhanced yield gains in highlands, where other constraints limited arable cropping. The positive responses to adaptation were mainly due to increases in solar radiation interception across the entire growth season. These results provide deeper insights on the dynamics of climate change impacts for crop rotation systems. Such knowledge can be used

  16. A Common Methodology for Risk Assessment and Mapping of Climate Change Related Hazards—Implications for Climate Change Adaptation Policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Papathoma-Köhle

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014, suggests that an important increase in frequency and magnitude of hazardous processes related to climate change is to be expected at the global scale. Consequently, it is necessary to improve the level of preparedness and the level of public awareness, to fill institutional gaps, and to improve territorial planning in order to reduce the potentially disastrous impact of natural hazards related to climate change. This paper mainly presents a new framework for risk assessment and mapping which enables countries with limited data sources to assess their risk to climate change related hazards at the local level, in order to reduce potential costs, to develop risk reduction strategies, to harmonize their preparedness efforts with neighboring countries and to deal with trans-boundary risk. The methodology is based on the European Commission’s “Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management” (2010 and considers local restrictions, such as a lack of documentation of historic disastrous events, spatial and other relevant data, offering alternative options for risk assessment, and the production of risk maps. The methodology is based on event tree analysis. It was developed within the European project SEERISK and adapted for a number of climate change-related hazards including floods, heat waves, wildfires, and storms. Additionally, the framework offers the possibility for risk assessment under different future scenarios. The implications for climate change adaptation policy are discussed.

  17. Health risks of climate change: an assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaptation policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wardekker, J Arjan; de Jong, Arie; van Bree, Leendert; Turkenburg, Wim C; van der Sluijs, Jeroen P

    2012-09-19

    Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type and level of uncertainty for each impact, and discussed its implications for adaptation policy. A questionnaire-based expert elicitation was performed using an ordinal scoring scale. Experts were asked to indicate the level of precision with which health risks can be estimated, given the present state of knowledge. We assessed the individual scores, the expertise-weighted descriptive statistics, and the argumentation given for each score. Suggestions were made for how dealing with uncertainties could be taken into account in climate change adaptation policy strategies. The results showed that the direction of change could be indicated for most anticipated health effects. For several potential effects, too little knowledge exists to indicate whether any impact will occur, or whether the impact will be positive or negative. For several effects, rough 'order-of-magnitude' estimates were considered possible. Factors limiting health impact quantification include: lack of data, multi-causality, unknown impacts considering a high-quality health system, complex cause-effect relations leading to multi-directional impacts, possible changes of present-day response-relations, and difficulties in predicting local climate impacts. Participants considered heat-related mortality and non-endemic vector-borne diseases particularly relevant for climate change adaptation. For possible climate related health impacts characterised by ignorance, adaptation policies that focus on enhancing the health system's and society's capability of dealing with possible future changes, uncertainties and surprises (e.g. through resilience, flexibility, and adaptive capacity) are most appropriate. For climate related health

  18. Health risks of climate change: An assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaptation policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wardekker J

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. Methods We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type and level of uncertainty for each impact, and discussed its implications for adaptation policy. A questionnaire-based expert elicitation was performed using an ordinal scoring scale. Experts were asked to indicate the level of precision with which health risks can be estimated, given the present state of knowledge. We assessed the individual scores, the expertise-weighted descriptive statistics, and the argumentation given for each score. Suggestions were made for how dealing with uncertainties could be taken into account in climate change adaptation policy strategies. Results The results showed that the direction of change could be indicated for most anticipated health effects. For several potential effects, too little knowledge exists to indicate whether any impact will occur, or whether the impact will be positive or negative. For several effects, rough ‘order-of-magnitude’ estimates were considered possible. Factors limiting health impact quantification include: lack of data, multi-causality, unknown impacts considering a high-quality health system, complex cause-effect relations leading to multi-directional impacts, possible changes of present-day response-relations, and difficulties in predicting local climate impacts. Participants considered heat-related mortality and non-endemic vector-borne diseases particularly relevant for climate change adaptation. Conclusions For possible climate related health impacts characterised by ignorance, adaptation policies that focus on enhancing the health system’s and society’s capability of dealing with possible future changes, uncertainties and surprises (e.g. through resilience, flexibility

  19. Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: a case study in the Netherlands

    OpenAIRE

    Reidsma, P.; Wolf, J.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Schaap, B.F.; Mandryk, M.; Verhagen, J.; Ittersum, van, M.K.

    2015-01-01

    Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on integrated assessment and farming systems analysis, and account for adaptation at different levels. With a case study for Flevoland, the Netherlands, we illustrate that (1) crop models cannot account for all relevant climate change impacts and adaptation options, and (2) changes in technology, policy and prices have had and are likely to have larger impacts on farms than climate change. Wh...

  20. Vanishing Springs in Nepalese Mountains: Assessment of Water Sources, Farmers' Perceptions, and Climate Change Adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Durga D. Poudel

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The Thulokhola watershed of the Nuwakot district in the midhills region of Nepal can be considered typical of climate change-related stresses in the region. To assess the status of water resources and document farmers' perceptions of and adaptation to climate change impacts in this watershed, we invited community groups to monitor water quality and conducted 6 focus group meetings, 3 participatory rural appraisals, and spring and household surveys in 2011 and 2012. Historical precipitation data from a nearby weather station and discharge data for the Tadi Khola, the nearest major river, were also analyzed. The spring survey results confirmed farmers' perceptions and showed that 73.2% of the springs used as water sources had a decreased flow and 12.2% had dried up over the past 10 or more years, as recognized by local residents. In response to the severe decline of precipitation and the drying up of springs, local communities have implemented some climate change adaptation measures, such as constructing water tanks at water sources, using pipes to transport drinking water, diverting water from other springs, digging deeper wells, and traveling farther to wash clothes and fetch drinking water. To enhance drinking water supplies and ensure the agricultural, ecological, and environmental integrity of the watershed, initiatives such as comprehensive research on springs and groundwater hydrology, a spring rejuvenation program, and community capacity building for water sustainability and climate change adaptation are suggested.

  1. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iain Brown

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

  2. Life cycle assessment of stormwater management in the context of climate change adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brudler, Sarah; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Rygaard, Martin

    2016-12-01

    Expected increases in pluvial flooding, due to climatic changes, require large investments in the retrofitting of cities to keep damage at an acceptable level. Many cities have investigated the possibility of implementing stormwater management (SWM) systems which are multi-functional and consist of different elements interacting to achieve desired safety levels. Typically, an economic assessment is carried out in the planning phase, while environmental sustainability is given little or no attention. In this paper, life cycle assessment is used to quantify environmental impacts of climate change adaptation strategies. The approach is tested using a climate change adaptation strategy for a catchment in Copenhagen, Denmark. A stormwater management system, using green infrastructure and local retention measures in combination with planned routing of stormwater on the surfaces to manage runoff, is compared to a traditional, sub-surface approach. Flood safety levels based on the Three Points Approach are defined as the functional unit to ensure comparability between systems. The adaptation plan has significantly lower impacts (3-18 person equivalents/year) than the traditional alternative (14-103 person equivalents/year) in all analysed impact categories. The main impacts are caused by managing rain events with return periods between 0.2 and 10 years. The impacts of handling smaller events with a return period of up to 0.2 years and extreme events with a return period of up to 100 years are lower in both alternatives. The uncertainty analysis shows the advantages of conducting an environmental assessment in the early stages of the planning process, when the design can still be optimised, but it also highlights the importance of detailed and site-specific data. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Climate change impact and adaptation assessment on food consumption utilizing a new scenario framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko; Tanaka, Akemi

    2014-01-01

    We assessed the impacts of climate change and agricultural autonomous adaptation measures (changes in crop variety and planting dates) on food consumption and risk of hunger considering uncertainties in socioeconomic and climate conditions by using a new scenario framework. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and estimated the impacts through 2050 based on future assumptions of socioeconomic and climate conditions. We used three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways as future population and gross domestic products, four Representative Concentration Pathways as a greenhouse gas emissions constraint, and eight General Circulation Models to estimate climate conditions. We found that (i) the adaptation measures are expected to significantly lower the risk of hunger resulting from climate change under various socioeconomic and climate conditions. (ii) population and economic development had a greater impact than climate conditions for risk of hunger at least throughout 2050, but climate change was projected to have notable impacts, even in the strong emission mitigation scenarios. (iii) The impact on hunger risk varied across regions because levels of calorie intake, climate change impacts and land scarcity varied by region.

  4. Integrating human responses to climate change into conservation vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Sean L; Venter, Oscar; Jones, Kendall R; Watson, James E M

    2015-10-01

    The impact of climate change on biodiversity is now evident, with the direct impacts of changing temperature and rainfall patterns and increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events on species distribution, populations, and overall ecosystem function being increasingly publicized. Changes in the climate system are also affecting human communities, and a range of human responses across terrestrial and marine realms have been witnessed, including altered agricultural activities, shifting fishing efforts, and human migration. Failing to account for the human responses to climate change is likely to compromise climate-smart conservation efforts. Here, we use a well-established conservation planning framework to show how integrating human responses to climate change into both species- and site-based vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans is possible. By explicitly taking into account human responses, conservation practitioners will improve their evaluation of species and ecosystem vulnerability, and will be better able to deliver win-wins for human- and biodiversity-focused climate adaptation. © 2015 New York Academy of Sciences.

  5. Improving the use of crop models for risk assessment and climate change adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Challinor, Andrew J; Müller, Christoph; Asseng, Senthold; Deva, Chetan; Nicklin, Kathryn Jane; Wallach, Daniel; Vanuytrecht, Eline; Whitfield, Stephen; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Koehler, Ann-Kristin

    2018-01-01

    Crop models are used for an increasingly broad range of applications, with a commensurate proliferation of methods. Careful framing of research questions and development of targeted and appropriate methods are therefore increasingly important. In conjunction with the other authors in this special issue, we have developed a set of criteria for use of crop models in assessments of impacts, adaptation and risk. Our analysis drew on the other papers in this special issue, and on our experience in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 and the MACSUR, AgMIP and ISIMIP projects. The criteria were used to assess how improvements could be made to the framing of climate change risks, and to outline the good practice and new developments that are needed to improve risk assessment. Key areas of good practice include: i. the development, running and documentation of crop models, with attention given to issues of spatial scale and complexity; ii. the methods used to form crop-climate ensembles, which can be based on model skill and/or spread; iii. the methods used to assess adaptation, which need broadening to account for technological development and to reflect the full range options available. The analysis highlights the limitations of focussing only on projections of future impacts and adaptation options using pre-determined time slices. Whilst this long-standing approach may remain an essential component of risk assessments, we identify three further key components: 1.Working with stakeholders to identify the timing of risks. What are the key vulnerabilities of food systems and what does crop-climate modelling tell us about when those systems are at risk?2.Use of multiple methods that critically assess the use of climate model output and avoid any presumption that analyses should begin and end with gridded output.3.Increasing transparency and inter-comparability in risk assessments. Whilst studies frequently produce ranges that quantify uncertainty, the assumptions

  6. Assessing adaptation – Climate change and indigenous livelihood in the Andes of Bolivia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marolyn Vidaurre de la Riva

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Based on a case study of Charazani – Bolivia, this article outlines the understanding of adaptive strategies to cope with climate change and its impact on environmental and socioeconomic conditions that are affecting rural livelihoods. Mainly qualitative methods were used to collect and analyze data following the framework for vulnerability assessments of a socio-ecological system. Climate data reveals an increase of precipitation and temperature during the last decades. Furthermore the occurrence of extreme weather events, particularly drought, frost, hailstorms and consequently landslides and fire are increasing. Local testimonies highlight these events as the principle reasons for agricultural losses. This climatic variability and simultaneous social changes were identified as the drivers of vulnerability. Yet, several adaptive measures were identified at household, community and external levels in order to cope with such vulnerability; e.g. traditional techniques in agriculture and risk management. Gradually, farmers complement these activities with contemporary practices in agriculture, like intensification of land use, diversification of irrigation system and use of artificial fertilizers. As part of a recent trend community members are forced to search for new off-farm alternatives beyond agriculture for subsistence. Despite there is a correspondingly large array of possible adaptation measures that families are implementing, local testimonies point out, that farmers often do not have the capacity and neither the economical resources to mitigate the risk in agricultural production. Although several actions are already considered to promote further adaptive capacity, the current target is to improve existing livelihood strategies by reducing vulnerability to hazards induced by climate change.

  7. New directions in climate change vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation assessment: summary of a workshop

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Brewer, Jennifer F

    ...; adaptation is inevitable. The remaining question is to what extent humans will anticipate and reduce undesired consequences of climate change, or postpone response until after climate change impacts have altered ecological...

  8. Climate change and forests: Impacts and adaption. A regional assessment for the Western Ghats, India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ravindranath, N.H.; Sukumar, R. [Indian Inst. of Science, Bangalore (India). Centre for Ecological Sciences; Deshingkar, P. [Stockholm Environment Inst. (Sweden)

    1997-12-31

    Potential climate change over the next 50 to 100 years could have major impacts on tropical forests. Forests, particularly in the tropics, are subjected to anthropogenic pressures leading to degradation and loss of forest ecosystems. Given the significant dependence of local people and economies on forests in tropical and temperate countries, there is a need to assess the possible impacts of climate change and to develop adaption measures. The diversity of forest types in the Western Ghats ranges from wet evergreen and deciduous forest to dry thorn and montane forests with a wide range of annual rainfall regimes (from less than 65 cm to over 300 cm). The study was conducted in two regions of the Western Ghats; the Uttara Kannada district and the Nilgiris. Climate change projections for 2020 and 2050 were used in assessing the possible impacts on forests. In general, the `most likely` projections of climate change were an increase in mean temperature in the range of 0.3-1.0 deg C and an increase in precipitation of 3-8% over the study regions by the year 2050. The `worst case` scenario was an increase in temperature of 1 deg C and a decrease in precipitation by 8% by 2050. To assess the vegetational responses to climate change, a simple model based on present-day correlations between climatic (mean annual temperature and precipitation) and vegetation types for these regions was developed. Likely changes in the areas under different forest types were assessed for `moderate climate` sensitivity and central scaling factor (referred to as the `most likely scenario`) for the years 2020 and 2050, and `high climate` sensitivity and a lower scaling factor (the `worst case scenario`) for 2050 90 refs, 15 figs, 15 tabs

  9. Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: a case study in the Netherlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reidsma, Pytrik; Wolf, Joost; Kanellopoulos, Argyris; Schaap, Ben F.; Mandryk, Maryia; Verhagen, Jan; van Ittersum, Martin K.

    2015-04-01

    Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on integrated assessment and farming systems analysis, and account for adaptation at different levels. With a case study for Flevoland, the Netherlands, we illustrate that (1) crop models cannot account for all relevant climate change impacts and adaptation options, and (2) changes in technology, policy and prices have had and are likely to have larger impacts on farms than climate change. While crop modelling indicates positive impacts of climate change on yields of major crops in 2050, a semi-quantitative and participatory method assessing impacts of extreme events shows that there are nevertheless several climate risks. A range of adaptation measures are, however, available to reduce possible negative effects at crop level. In addition, at farm level farmers can change cropping patterns, and adjust inputs and outputs. Also farm structural change will influence impacts and adaptation. While the 5th IPCC report is more negative regarding impacts of climate change on agriculture compared to the previous report, also for temperate regions, our results show that when putting climate change in context of other drivers, and when explicitly accounting for adaptation at crop and farm level, impacts may be less negative in some regions and opportunities are revealed. These results refer to a temperate region, but an integrated assessment may also change perspectives on climate change for other parts of the world.

  10. Total costs and budgetary effects of adaptation to climate change. An assessment for the European Union

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Osberghaus, Daniel; Reif, Christiane [ZEW Mannheim (Germany). Centre for European Economic Research

    2010-08-15

    Adaptation to climate change is gaining increasing relevance in the public debate of climate policy. However, detailed and regionalised cost estimates as a basis for cost-benefit-analyses are rare. We compose available cost estimates for adaptation in Europe, and in particular Germany, Finland and Italy. Furthermore, a systematic overview on fiscal aspects of adaptation is provided, with focus on budgetary effects of adaptation in the different impact sectors. Combining cost estimates, considerations on fiscal aspects and governmental interventions in adaptation processes, we present data-based guesses of public adaptation costs in the EU, divided by impact sectors. The findings show an expectedly large public burden in the adaptation of transport infrastructure and coastal protection, while high adaptation costs in the agriculture sector are predominantly private. The change in energy demand may well lead to a significant decrease in public expenditure. Considering the regional heterogeneity of adaptation measures and the high uncertainty of quantitative adaptation analyses, further research in the form of bottom-up-studies is needed. (orig.)

  11. Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation options in urban flash floods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    Introduction. Adaptation is necessary to cope with the increasing flood risk in cities due to climate change in many regions of the world. Decision marking of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis to indicate the net benefits of proposed options. Priority...

  12. Climate change risks and adaptation options across Australian seafood supply chains – A preliminary assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Fleming

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is already impacting the biology of the oceans and some dependent industries are in turn responding to these impacts. The development of response options for users of marine resources, such as fishers, is important in guiding adaptation efforts. However, harvesting fish is only the first step in a supply chain that delivers seafood to consumers. Impacts higher up the chain have seldom been considered in fisheries-climate research yet an understanding of these impacts and how climate risks and adaptation information are interpreted and used by stakeholders across the chain is vital for developing viable and sustainable adaptation options. We examined stakeholder perceptions of points where climate change impacts and adaptations currently occur, or may occur in the future, across the supply chains of several Australian fisheries (southern rock lobster, tropical rock lobster, prawn and aquaculture sectors (oyster, aquaculture prawn. We found that climate change impacts are well understood at the harvest stage and there is evidence of potential impacts and disruption to supply chains. Yet, there currently is no strong driver for change higher up the chain. Holistic adaptation planning along the supply chain, underpinned by targeted information and policy for the catch, processing and distribution, and marketing phases is needed. This effort is needed now, as some adaptation options have long lead times, and a delay in adaptation planning may limit future options. Given potential lead times and associated uncertainty, a risk-based approach is recommended with regard to adaptation planning for Australia’s seafood sector.

  13. Spatially Explicit Assessment of Ecosystem Resilience: An Approach to Adapt to Climate Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haiming Yan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystem resilience plays a key role in maintaining a steady flow of ecosystem services and enables quick and flexible responses to climate changes, and maintaining or restoring the ecosystem resilience of forests is a necessary societal adaptation to climate change; however, there is a great lack of spatially explicit ecosystem resilience assessments. Drawing on principles of the ecosystem resilience highlighted in the literature, we built on the theory of dissipative structures to develop a conceptual model of the ecosystem resilience of forests. A hierarchical indicator system was designed with the influencing factors of the forest ecosystem resilience, including the stand conditions and the ecological memory, which were further disaggregated into specific indicators. Furthermore, indicator weights were determined with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP and the coefficient of variation method. Based on the remote sensing data and forest inventory data and so forth, the resilience index of forests was calculated. The result suggests that there is significant spatial heterogeneity of the ecosystem resilience of forests, indicating it is feasible to generate large-scale ecosystem resilience maps with this assessment model, and the results can provide a scientific basis for the conservation of forests, which is of great significance to the climate change mitigation.

  14. Assessment of the Adaptation Strategiesin Rainfed Chickpea in Response to Future Climate Change in Zanjan Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Hajarpoor

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Chickpea (Cicer arietinum L. is cultivated on alarge scale in arid and semiarid environments. Terminal drought and heat stress, among other abiotic and biotic stresses, are the major constraints of yield in most regions of chickpea production. The study of the effects of climate change could help to develop adaptation strategies to promote and stabilize crop yield. This research was aimed to assess adoption strategies in rainfed chickpea in response to Zanjan province’s climate change using a crop simulation model along with providing simulated yield maps using geographical information system (GIS. Materials and methods To study the effects of climate change and simulation the adaptation strategies, the model of Soltani and Sinclair (Soltani & Sinclair, 2011 was used. This model simulates phenological development, leaf development and senescence, mass partitioning, plant nitrogen balance, yield formation and soil water balance. For each location, a baseline period of daily weather data was available (Table 1. Investigated scenarios were historical climate (control and future climate scenarios that included both direct effects of doubling CO2 (350 to 700 ppm and its indirect effects (10% reduced rainfall, 4ºC increase in temperature. The crop model was performed for the different years of baseline period for current and future climate under typical management and cultivar and also under three adaptation strategies in the future climate including Management adaptation (M, Genetic adaptation (G and a combination of both Management and Genetic adaptation (M & G as described below (Table 2: Management – In various studies changing the planting dates as the simplest and least-cost adaptation strategy has been emphasized (Luo et al., 2009; hence a shift in planting dates i.e. sowing 15 days in advance was explored in this study to reduce the risk of the late season drought. Genetics – Changes in genotype have been suggested to be

  15. Adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carmin, J.; Tierney, K.; Chu, E.; Hunter, L.M.; Roberts, J.T.; Shi, L.; Dunlap, R.E.; Brulle, R.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the

  16. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2014-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  17. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2013-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  18. An uncertainty assessment framework for forest planning adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Petr, M.; Boerboom, L.G.J.; Ray, D.; van der Veen, A.

    2014-01-01

    Uncertainty in forest planning is a prevailing problem affecting decision-making processes, especially those relating to climate change adaptation. Limited knowledge about uncertainty has prompted this empirical investigation of forest planners' understanding of uncertainty related to its

  19. New directions in climate change vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation assessment: summary of a workshop

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Brewer, Jennifer F

    .... This book summarizes a National Research Council workshop at which presentations and discussion identified specific needs associated with this gap between the demand and supply of scientific information about climate change adaptation. --

  20. Assessing farmer use of climate change adaptation practices and impacts on food security and poverty in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akhter Ali

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is set to be particularly disruptive in poor agricultural communities. We assess the factors influencing farmers’ choice of climate change adaptation practices and associated impacts on household food security and poverty in Pakistan using comprehensive data from 950 farmers from its major provinces. A probit model was used to investigate the factors influencing the use of climate-change adaptation practices; the censored least absolute deviation (CLAD was used to analyze the determinants of the number of adaptation practices used; and a propensity score matching (PSM approach was employed to evaluate the impact of adaptation practices on food security and poverty levels. Adjustment in sowing time (22% households, use of drought tolerant varieties (15% and shifting to new crops (25% were the three major adaptation practices used by farmers in the study area. Results show that younger farmers and farmers with higher levels of education are more likely to use these adaptation practices, as do farmers that are wealthier, farm more land and have joint families. The number of adaptation practices used was found to be positively associated with education, male household heads, land size, household size, extension services, access to credit and wealth. Farmers adopting more adaptation practices had higher food security levels (8–13% than those who did not, and experienced lower levels of poverty (3–6%. Climate change adaptation practices at farm level can thereby have significant development outcomes in addition to reducing exposure to weather risks.

  1. Climate Change Adaptation Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-11

    US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG® Climate Change Adaptation Approaches Presented at the E2S2 Symposium May 11th, 2011 New Orleans, LA...COVERED 00-00-2011 to 00-00-2011 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Climate Change Adaptation Approaches 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM...10/09).  One of the four priorities is to maintain readiness in the face of climate change .  Addressing Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability: a

  2. A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

    2017-05-01

    Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

  3. A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

    2017-05-01

    Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

  4. Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: a case study in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, P.; Wolf, J.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Schaap, B.F.; Mandryk, M.; Verhagen, J.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2015-01-01

    Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on integrated assessment and farming systems analysis, and account for adaptation at different levels. With a case study for Flevoland, the Netherlands, we illustrate that (1) crop models cannot

  5. Health risks of climate change: An assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaption policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wardekker, J.A.; de Jong, A.; van Bree, L.; Turkenburg, W.C.; van der Sluijs, J.P.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. Methods: We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type

  6. Assessing climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for smallholder agricultural systems in Uganda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bagamba, F.; Bashaasha, B.; Claessens, L.F.G.; Antle, J.

    2012-01-01

    The debate on whether climate change will impact on peoples’ livelihoods and, hence, the need to act is essentially over and has instead shifted to the development of strategies needed by different regions and countries to adapt to climate change effects. However, there is still scanty information

  7. Changing tides: Adaptive monitoring, assessment, and management of pharmaceutical hazards in the environment through time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaw, Sally; Brooks, Bryan W

    2016-04-01

    Pharmaceuticals are ubiquitous contaminants in aquatic ecosystems. Adaptive monitoring, assessment, and management programs will be required to reduce the environmental hazards of pharmaceuticals of concern. Potentially underappreciated factors that drive the environmental dose of pharmaceuticals include regulatory approvals, marketing campaigns, pharmaceutical subsidies and reimbursement schemes, and societal acceptance. Sales data for 5 common antidepressants (duloxetine [Cymbalta], escitalopram [Lexapro], venlafaxine [Effexor], bupropion [Wellbutrin], and sertraline [Zoloft]) in the United States from 2004 to 2008 were modeled to explore how environmental hazards in aquatic ecosystems changed after patents were obtained or expired. Therapeutic hazard ratios for Effexor and Lexapro did not exceed 1; however, the therapeutic hazard ratio for Zoloft declined whereas the therapeutic hazard ratio for Cymbalta increased as a function of patent protection and sale patterns. These changes in therapeutic hazard ratios highlight the importance of considering current and future drivers of pharmaceutical use when prioritizing pharmaceuticals for water quality monitoring programs. When urban systems receiving discharges of environmental contaminants are examined, water quality efforts should identify, prioritize, and select target analytes presently in commerce for effluent monitoring and surveillance. © 2015 SETAC.

  8. Life cycle assessment of stormwater management in the context of climate change adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brudler, Sarah; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    2016-01-01

    Expected increases in pluvial flooding, due to climatic changes, require large investments in the retrofitting of cities to keep damage at an acceptable level. Many cities have investigated the possibility of implementing stormwater management (SWM) systems which are multi-functional and consist...... adaptation strategies. The approach is tested using a climate change adaptation strategy for a catchment in Copenhagen, Denmark. A stormwater management system, using green infrastructure and local retention measures in combination with planned routing of stormwater on the surfaces to manage runoff...

  9. Climate Change: Federal Efforts Under Way to Assess Water Infrastructure Vulnerabilities and Address Adaptation Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-01

    in 2011, and both the St. Mary River and Milk River Basins Study and Colorado River Basin Study in 2012. Some studies entirely cover the major river...29 GAO-14-23 Climate Change Adaptation fruit and nut crops. Reclamation is also the second largest producer of hydropower in the United States

  10. [Attaching importance to study on acute health risk assessment and adaptation of air pollution and climate change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, X M

    2017-03-10

    Air pollution and climate change have become key environmental and public health problems around the world, which poses serious threat to human health. How to assess and mitigate the health risks and increase the adaptation of the public have become an urgent topic of research in this area. The six papers in this issue will provide important and rich information on design, analysis method, indicator selection and setting about acute health risk assessment and adaptation study of air pollution and climate change in China, reflecting the advanced conceptions of multi-center and area-specific study and multi-pollutant causing acute effect study. However, the number and type of the cities included in these studies were still limited. In future, researchers should further expand detailed multi-center and multi-area study coverage, conduct area specific predicting and early warning study and strengthen adaptation study.

  11. Adapting agriculture to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howden, S Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

    2007-12-11

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.

  12. Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation options in urban flash floods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    Adaptation is necessary to cope with the increasing flood risk in cities due to anthropogenic climate change in many regions of the world. The choice of adaptation strategies can and should be based on a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis to indicate the net benefits of proposed options....... However, the analysis is complicated by irreducible uncertainties about present and future hydrologic conditions as well as the present and future vulnerability of the area in question. Further, modelling of the actual hazards given the hydrologic conditions also entails substantial uncertainty. The work......-effective regardless of the uncertainties from climate change impacts and /or damage estimation procedure when considering the ability to reduce the risk of flooding. The description of the correlation structure between the key inputs proved to be important in order to obtain a correct description of the resulting...

  13. Development and Climate Change: A Mainstreaming Approach for Assessing Economic, Social, and Environmental Impacts of Adaptation Measures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

    2009-01-01

    as representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. Within this context it is illustrated using three case studies...... how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of Mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in Tanzania and malaria protection in Tanzania....... The conclusions of the paper confirm that climate risks can be reduced at relatively low costs, but the uncertainty is still remaining about some of the wider development impacts of implementing climate change adaptation measures....

  14. Beyond exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity: A response based ecological framework to assess species climate change vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortini, Lucas B.; Schubert, Olivia

    2017-01-01

    As the impacts of global climate change on species are increasingly evident, there is a clear need to adapt conservation efforts worldwide. Species vulnerability assessments (VAs) are increasingly used to summarize all relevant information to determine a species’ potential vulnerability to climate change and are frequently the first step in informing climate adaptation efforts. VAs commonly integrate multiple sources of information by utilizing a framework that distinguishes factors relevant to species exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. However, this framework was originally developed for human systems, and its use to evaluate species vulnerability has serious practical and theoretical limitations. By instead defining vulnerability as the degree to which a species is unable to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., toleration of projected changes, migration to new climate-compatible areas, enduring in microrefugia, and evolutionary adaptation), we can bring VAs into the realm of ecological science without applying borrowed abstract concepts that have consistently challenged species-centric research and management. This response-based framework to assess species vulnerability to climate change allows better integration of relevant ecological data and past research, yielding results with much clearer implications for conservation and research prioritization.

  15. Multi-disciplinary assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture to support adaptation decision making in developing countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki

    2016-04-01

    Many existing climate change impact studies, carried out by academic researchers, are disconnected from decision making processes of stakeholders. On the other hand many climate change adaptation projects in developing countries lack a solid evidence base of current and future climate impacts as well as vulnerabilities assessment at different scales. In order to fill this information gap, FAO has developed and implemented a tool "MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change)" in several developing countries such as Morocco, the Philippines and Peru, and recently in Malawi and Zambia. MOSAICC employs a multi-disciplinary assessment approach to addressing climate change impacts and adaptation planning in the agriculture and food security sectors, and integrates five components from different academic disciplines: 1. Statistical downscaling of climate change projections, 2. Yield simulation of major crops at regional scale under climate change, 3. Surface hydrology simulation model, 4. Macroeconomic model, and 5. Forestry model. Furthermore MOSAICC has been developed as a capacity development tool for the national scientists so that they can conduct the country assessment themselves, using their own data, and reflect the outcome into the national adaptation policies. The outputs are nation-wide coverage, disaggregated at sub-national level to support strategic planning, investments and decisions by national policy makers. MOSAICC is designed in such a way to promote stakeholders' participation and strengthen technical capacities in developing countries. The paper presents MOSAICC and projects that used MOSAICC as a tool with case studies from countries.

  16. Sustainable Land Management's potential for climate change adaptation in Mediterranean environments: a regional scale assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eekhout, Joris P. C.; de Vente, Joris

    2017-04-01

    Climate change has strong implications for many essential ecosystem services, such as provision of drinking and irrigation water, soil erosion and flood control. Especially large impacts are expected in the Mediterranean, already characterised by frequent floods and droughts. The projected higher frequency of extreme weather events under climate change will lead to an increase of plant water stress, reservoir inflow and sediment yield. Sustainable Land Management (SLM) practices are increasingly promoted as climate change adaptation strategy and to increase resilience against extreme events. However, there is surprisingly little known about their impacts and trade-offs on ecosystem services at regional scales. The aim of this research is to provide insight in the potential of SLM for climate change adaptation, focusing on catchment-scale impacts on soil and water resources. We applied a spatially distributed hydrological model (SPHY), coupled with an erosion model (MUSLE) to the Segura River catchment (15,978 km2) in SE Spain. We run the model for three periods: one reference (1981-2000) and two future scenarios (2031-2050 and 2081-2100). Climate input data for the future scenarios were based on output from 9 Regional Climate Models and for different emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Realistic scenarios of SLM practices were developed based on a local stakeholder consultation process. The evaluated SLM scenarios focussed on reduced tillage and organic amendments under tree and cereal crops, covering 24% and 15% of the catchment, respectively. In the reference scenario, implementation of SLM at the field-scale led to an increase of the infiltration capacity of the soil and a reduction of surface runoff up to 29%, eventually reducing catchment-scale reservoir inflow by 6%. This led to a reduction of field-scale sediment yield of more than 50% and a reduced catchment-scale sediment flux to reservoirs of 5%. SLM was able to fully mitigate the effect of climate

  17. Brain structural changes following adaptive cognitive training assessed by Tensor-Based Morphometry (TBM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colom, Roberto; Hua, Xue; Martínez, Kenia; Burgaleta, Miguel; Román, Francisco J; Gunter, Jeffrey L; Carmona, Susanna; Jaeggi, Susanne M; Thompson, Paul M

    2016-10-01

    Tensor-Based Morphometry (TBM) allows the automatic mapping of brain changes across time building 3D deformation maps. This technique has been applied for tracking brain degeneration in Alzheimer's and other neurodegenerative diseases with high sensitivity and reliability. Here we applied TBM to quantify changes in brain structure after completing a challenging adaptive cognitive training program based on the n-back task. Twenty-six young women completed twenty-four training sessions across twelve weeks and they showed, on average, large cognitive improvements. High-resolution MRI scans were obtained before and after training. The computed longitudinal deformation maps were analyzed for answering three questions: (a) Are there differential brain structural changes in the training group as compared with a matched control group? (b) Are these changes related to performance differences in the training program? (c) Are standardized changes in a set of psychological factors (fluid and crystallized intelligence, working memory, and attention control) measured before and after training, related to structural changes in the brain? Results showed (a) greater structural changes for the training group in the temporal lobe, (b) a negative correlation between these changes and performance across training sessions (the greater the structural change, the lower the cognitive performance improvements), and (c) negligible effects regarding the psychological factors measured before and after training. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Assessment at North Carolina State University: Adapting to Change in the Workplace

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bresciani, Marilee J.; Griffiths, Jane H.; Rust, Jon P.

    2009-01-01

    Effectively introducing change in job responsibilities, particularly when dealing with tenured faculty, can be challenging. More often, additions or changes to work tasks, such as integrating assessment procedures into existing work tasks, requires employees to apply new and/or more complex knowledge, skill, and ability. When compared to…

  19. Development and climate change: a mainstreaming approach for assessing economic, social, and environmental impacts of adaptation measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halsnaes, Kirsten; Traerup, Sara

    2009-05-01

    The paper introduces the so-called climate change mainstreaming approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives. The approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. These indicators are selected as representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. Within this context it is illustrated using three case studies how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of Mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in Tanzania and malaria protection in Tanzania. The conclusions of the paper confirm that climate risks can be reduced at relatively low costs, but the uncertainty is still remaining about some of the wider development impacts of implementing climate change adaptation measures.

  20. Development and Climate Change: A Mainstreaming Approach for Assessing Economic, Social, and Environmental Impacts of Adaptation Measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Trærup, Sara

    2009-05-01

    The paper introduces the so-called climate change mainstreaming approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives. The approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. These indicators are selected as representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. Within this context it is illustrated using three case studies how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of Mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in Tanzania and malaria protection in Tanzania. The conclusions of the paper confirm that climate risks can be reduced at relatively low costs, but the uncertainty is still remaining about some of the wider development impacts of implementing climate change adaptation measures.

  1. An innovative cross-sectoral method for implementation of trade-off adaptation strategy assessment under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsao, Jung-Hsuan; Tung, Ching-Pin; Liu, Tzu-Ming

    2014-05-01

    Climate change will increase sharp risks to the water and food supply in coming decades. Although impact assessment and adaptation evaluation has been discussed a lot in recent years, the importance of adaptation implement should not be ignored. In Taiwan, and elsewhere, fallow is an option of adaptation strategy under climate change. Fallow would improve the water scarcity of domestic use, but the food security might be threatened. The trade-off effects of adaptation actions are just like the side effects of medicine which cannot be avoided. Thus, managing water resources with an integrated approach will be urgent. This study aims to establish a cross-sectoral framework for implementation the trade-off adaptation strategy. Not only fallow, but also other trade-off strategy like increasing the percentage of national grain self-sufficiency would be analyzed by a rational decision process. The recent percentage of grain self-sufficiency in Taiwan is around 32, which was decreasing from 53 thirty years ago. Yet, the goal of increasing grain self-sufficiency means much more water must be used in agriculture. In that way, domestic users may face the water shortage situation. Considering the conflicts between water supply and food security, the concepts from integrative negotiation are appropriate to apply. The implementation of trade-off adaptation strategies needs to start by quantifying the utility of water supply and food security were be quantified. Next, each side's bottom line can be found by BATNA (Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement) and ZOPA (Zone of Possible Agreement). ZOPA provides the entire possible outcomes, and BATNA ensures the efficiency of adaptation actions by moving along with Pareto frontier. Therefore, the optimal percentage of fallow and grain self-sufficiency can be determined. Furthermore, BATNA also provides the pathway step by step which can be a guideline of adaptation strategies. This framework allows analysts and stakeholder to

  2. Health Impacts of Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries: A Regional Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Priorities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Rokho; Woodward, Alistair; Hales, Simon; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Iddings, Steven; Naicker, Jyotishma; Bambrick, Hilary; McMichael, Anthony J; Ebi, Kristie L

    2016-11-01

    Between 2010 and 2012, the World Health Organization Division of Pacific Technical Support led a regional climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project, in collaboration with health sector partners, in 13 Pacific island countries-Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. We assessed the vulnerabilities of Pacific island countries to the health impacts of climate change and planned adaptation strategies to minimize such threats to health. This assessment involved a combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques. The former included descriptive epidemiology, time series analyses, Poisson regression, and spatial modeling of climate and climate-sensitive disease data, in the few instances where this was possible; the latter included wide stakeholder consultations, iterative consensus building, and expert opinion. Vulnerabilities were ranked using a "likelihood versus impact" matrix, and adaptation strategies were prioritized and planned accordingly. The highest-priority climate-sensitive health risks in Pacific island countries included trauma from extreme weather events, heat-related illnesses, compromised safety and security of water and food, vector-borne diseases, zoonoses, respiratory illnesses, psychosocial ill-health, non-communicable diseases, population pressures, and health system deficiencies. Adaptation strategies relating to these climate change and health risks could be clustered according to categories common to many countries in the Pacific region. Pacific island countries are among the most vulnerable in the world to the health impacts of climate change. This vulnerability is a function of their unique geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics combined with their exposure to changing weather patterns associated with climate change, the health risks entailed, and the limited capacity

  3. Health Impacts of Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries: A Regional Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Priorities

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Rokho; Woodward, Alistair; Hales, Simon; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Iddings, Steven; Naicker, Jyotishma; Bambrick, Hilary; McMichael, Anthony J.; Ebi, Kristie L.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Between 2010 and 2012, the World Health Organization Division of Pacific Technical Support led a regional climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project, in collaboration with health sector partners, in 13 Pacific island countries—Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. Objective: We assessed the vulnerabilities of Pacific island countries to the health impacts of climate change and planned adaptation strategies to minimize such threats to health. Methods: This assessment involved a combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques. The former included descriptive epidemiology, time series analyses, Poisson regression, and spatial modeling of climate and climate-sensitive disease data, in the few instances where this was possible; the latter included wide stakeholder consultations, iterative consensus building, and expert opinion. Vulnerabilities were ranked using a “likelihood versus impact” matrix, and adaptation strategies were prioritized and planned accordingly. Results: The highest-priority climate-sensitive health risks in Pacific island countries included trauma from extreme weather events, heat-related illnesses, compromised safety and security of water and food, vector-borne diseases, zoonoses, respiratory illnesses, psychosocial ill-health, non-communicable diseases, population pressures, and health system deficiencies. Adaptation strategies relating to these climate change and health risks could be clustered according to categories common to many countries in the Pacific region. Conclusion: Pacific island countries are among the most vulnerable in the world to the health impacts of climate change. This vulnerability is a function of their unique geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics combined with their exposure to changing weather patterns associated with climate

  4. Data and processes linking vulnerability assessment to adaptation decision-making on climate change in Norway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Naess, L.O. [Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo (Norway); Norland, I.T.; Lafferty, W.M. [University of Oslo, (Norway). Program for Research and Documentation for a Sustainable Society; Aall, C. [Western Norway Research Institute, Sogndal (Norway)

    2006-05-15

    The article focuses on the use of climate change vulnerability assessments in a local decision-making context, with particular reference to recent studies in Norway. We focus on two aspects of vulnerability assessment that we see as key to local decision-making: first, the information generated through the assessments themselves, and second, the institutional linkages to local level decision-making processes. Different research approaches generated different types of data. This is rarely made explicit, yet it has important implications for decision-making. In addressing these challenges we propose a dialectic approach based on exchange, rather than integration of data from different approaches. The focus is on process over product, and on the need for anchoring vulnerability assessments in local decision-making processes. In conclusion, we argue that there is unlikely to be one single 'correct' assessment tool or indicator model to make vulnerability assessments matter at a local level. (author)

  5. Climate Change Adaptation Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    www.ccawwg.us/ docs/Short-Term_Water_Management_Decisions_Final_3_ Jan_2013.pdf Short MD, Peirson WL, Peters GL, Cox RJ. Managing adaptation of urban water...Reduction ER: Ecosystem Restoration H: Hydrop wer G: gul t ry RC: Recreation EM: Emergency Management W: Water Supply + Changes in stormwater runoff N...USACE is taking to manage these risks and vulnerabilities. This Plan contains a description of programs, policies, and plans USACE has already put in

  6. Adapting to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn

    2011-01-01

    Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling...... framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed...... down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US2.3 to US2.3toUS7...

  7. Integrated impact assessment of climate change, land use, and adaptation policies on water quality in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trautvetter, Helen; Schoenhart, Martin; Parajaka, Juraj; Schmid, Erwin; Zessner, Matthias

    2017-04-01

    Climate change is one of the major challenges of our time and adds considerable stress to the human society and environment. A change in climate will not only shift general weather patterns, but might also increase the recurrence of extreme weather events such as drought and heavy rainfall. These changes in climatic conditions will affect the quality and quantity of water resources both directly as well as indirectly through autonomous adaptation by farmers (e.g. cultivar choices, fertilization intensity or soil management). This will influence the compliance with the good ecological and chemical status according to the EU Water Framework Directive. We present results from an integrated impact modelling framework (IIMF) to tackle those direct and indirect impacts and analyze policy options for planned adaptation in agricultural land use and sustainable management of land and water resources until 2040. The IIMF is the result of an interdisciplinary collaboration among economists, agronomists, and hydrologists. It consists of the bio-physical process model EPIC, the regional land use optimization model PASMA[grid], the quantitative precipitation/runoff TUWmodel and the surface water emission model MONERIS. Scenarios have been developed and parameterized in collaboration with stakeholders in order to facilitate multi-actor knowledge transfer. The set of climate change scenarios until 2040 includes three scenarios with equal temperature changes but varying precipitation patterns. They are combined with potential socio-economic and policy development. The latter include water protection measures on fertilization management, soil management, or crop rotation choices. We will presented the development of interfaces among the research, the definition of scenarios and major scenario results for Austria. We will focus on nutrient emissions to surface waters, which are the major link between the different models. The results, available at watershed level indicate the

  8. Impact assessment and coastal climate change adaptation in a local transdisciplinary perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Broge, N. H.; Knudsen, Per

    From an applied point of view, the authors present and discuss inter- and transdisciplinary approaches to assess and deal with natural coastal hazards and climate change impacts. The construction of a shared working platform for knowledge integration across levels of governance and between research...... of climate change. The platform is dynamically updated with additional data and knowledge, e.g. from climate change evidence, or, by provision of updated regional models of future sea level rise. In order to integrate natural hazards and impact development over time, models on hydrology, geology...... a more prominent role. For example, the investment and maintenance costs of securing functional water and wastewater pipes are significantly reduced by incorporation of knowledge about climate change impacts. The presented approaches yield an integrative process-oriented framework to handle uncertainties...

  9. Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hudecz, Adriána

    -operation and research into the common problems of the Northern Periphery. This report is an output of the ROADEX “Implementing Accessibility” project (2009-2012). It gives a summary of the results of research into adaptation measures to combat climate change effects on low volume roads in the Northern Periphery....... The research was carried out between January 2000 and March 2012. One of the biggest challenges that mankind has to face is the prospect of climate change resulting from emissions of greenhouse gases. These gases trap energy in the atmosphere and cause global surface temperatures to rise. This warming in turn...... causes changes in other climatic variables such as rainfall, humidity and wind speed that impact on the functioning of infrastructure such road networks. This paper discusses the climate changes predicted by the world’s meteorological organisations and considers how these may impact on the public...

  10. Assessment of impact of climate change and adaptation strategies on maize production in Uganda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kikoyo, Duncan A.; Nobert, Joel

    2016-06-01

    Globally, various climatic studies have estimated a reduction of crop yields due to changes in surface temperature and precipitation especially for the developing countries which is heavily dependent on agriculture and lacks resources to counter the negative effects of climate change. Uganda's economy and the wellbeing of its populace depend on rain-fed agriculture which is susceptible to climate change. This study quantified the impacts of climate change and variability in Uganda and how coping strategies can enhance crop production against climate change and/or variability. The study used statistical methods to establish various climate change and variability indicators across the country, and uses the FAO AquaCrop model to simulate yields under possible future climate scenarios with and without adaptation strategies. Maize, the most widely grown crop was used for the study. Meteorological, soil and crop data were collected for various districts representing the maize growing ecological zones in the country. Based on this study, it was found that temperatures have increased by up to 1 °C across much of Uganda since the 1970s, with rates of warming around 0.3 °C per decade across the country. High altitude, low rainfall regions experience the highest level of warming, with over 0.5 °C/decade recorded in Kasese. Rainfall is variable and does not follow a specific significant increasing or decreasing trend. For both future climate scenarios, Maize yields will reduce in excess of 4.7% for the fast warming-low rainfall climates but increase on average by 3.5% for slow warming-high rainfall regions, by 2050. Improved soil fertility can improve yields by over 50% while mulching and use of surface water management practices improve yields by single digit percentages. The use of fertilizer application needs to go hand in hand with other water management strategies since more yields as a result of the improved soil fertility leads to increased water stress, especially

  11. The potential role of health impact assessment in tackling the complexity of climate change adaptation for health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Helen L; Proust, Katrina; Spickett, Jeffery; Capon, Anthony

    2011-12-01

    Managing an issue of the magnitude, scope and complexity of climate change is a daunting prospect, yet one which nations around the world must face. Climate change is an issue without boundaries--impacts will cut across administrative and geographical borders and be felt by every sector of society. Responses to climate change will need to employ system approaches that take into account the relationships that cross organisational and sectoral boundaries. Solutions designed in isolation from these interdependencies will be unlikely to succeed, squandering opportunities for long-term effective adaptation. Health Impact Assessment (HIA) provides a structural approach to identify, evaluate and manage health impacts of climate change that is inclusive of a wide range of stakeholders. Climate change will affect decision-making across every government level and sector and the health implications of these decisions can also be addressed with HIA. Given the nature of the issue, HIA of climate change will identify a large number of variables that influence the type and extent of health impacts and the management of these impacts. In order to implement the most effective adaptation measures, it is critica that an understanding of the interactions between these variables is developed. The outcome of HIA of climate change can therefore be strengthened by the introduction of system dynamics tools, such as causal loop diagrams, that are designed to examine interactions between variables and the resulting behaviour of complex systems.

  12. Adapting to the Changing Climate: An Assessment of Local Health Department Preparations for Climate Change-Related Health Threats, 2008-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roser-Renouf, Connie; Maibach, Edward W; Li, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    Climate change poses a major public health threat. A survey of U.S. local health department directors in 2008 found widespread recognition of the threat, but limited adaptive capacity, due to perceived lack of expertise and other resources. We assessed changes between 2008 and 2012 in local public health departments' preparedness for the public health threats of climate change, in light of increasing national polarization on the issue, and widespread funding cutbacks for public health. A geographically representative online survey of directors of local public health departments was conducted in 2011-2012 (N = 174; response rate = 50%), and compared to the 2008 telephone survey results (N = 133; response rate = 61%). Significant polarization had occurred: more respondents in 2012 were certain that the threat of local climate change impacts does/does not exist, and fewer were unsure. Roughly 10% said it is not a threat, compared to 1% in 2008. Adaptation capacity decreased in several areas: perceived departmental expertise in climate change risk assessment; departmental prioritization of adaptation; and the number of adaptation-related programs and services departments provided. In 2008, directors' perceptions of local impacts predicted the number of adaptation-related programs and services their departments offered, but in 2012, funding predicted programming and directors' impact perceptions did not. This suggests that budgets were constraining directors' ability to respond to local climate change-related health threats. Results also suggest that departmental expertise may mitigate funding constraints. Strategies for overcoming these obstacles to local public health departments' preparations for climate change are discussed.

  13. Adapting to the Changing Climate: An Assessment of Local Health Department Preparations for Climate Change-Related Health Threats, 2008-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roser-Renouf, Connie; Maibach, Edward W.; Li, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    Background Climate change poses a major public health threat. A survey of U.S. local health department directors in 2008 found widespread recognition of the threat, but limited adaptive capacity, due to perceived lack of expertise and other resources. Methods We assessed changes between 2008 and 2012 in local public health departments' preparedness for the public health threats of climate change, in light of increasing national polarization on the issue, and widespread funding cutbacks for public health. A geographically representative online survey of directors of local public health departments was conducted in 2011–2012 (N = 174; response rate = 50%), and compared to the 2008 telephone survey results (N = 133; response rate = 61%). Results Significant polarization had occurred: more respondents in 2012 were certain that the threat of local climate change impacts does/does not exist, and fewer were unsure. Roughly 10% said it is not a threat, compared to 1% in 2008. Adaptation capacity decreased in several areas: perceived departmental expertise in climate change risk assessment; departmental prioritization of adaptation; and the number of adaptation-related programs and services departments provided. In 2008, directors' perceptions of local impacts predicted the number of adaptation-related programs and services their departments offered, but in 2012, funding predicted programming and directors' impact perceptions did not. This suggests that budgets were constraining directors' ability to respond to local climate change-related health threats. Results also suggest that departmental expertise may mitigate funding constraints. Strategies for overcoming these obstacles to local public health departments' preparations for climate change are discussed. PMID:26991658

  14. Assessment of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation policy integration in Zambia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilli-Sihvola, K.; Väätäinen-Chimpuku, S.

    2015-12-01

    Integration of Disaster Risk Management (DRM) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) policies, their implementation measures and the contribution of these to development has been gaining attention recently. Due to the shared objectives of CCA and particularly Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), a component of DRM, their integration provides many benefits. At the implementation level, DRR and CCA are usually integrated. Policy integration, however, is often lacking. This study presents a novel analysis of the policy integration of DRR and CCA by 1) suggesting a definition for their integration at a general and further at horizontal and vertical levels, 2) using an analysis framework for policy integration cycle, which separates the policy formulation and implementation processes, and 3) applying these to a case study in Zambia. Moreover, the study identifies the key gaps in the integration process, obtains an understanding of identified key factors for creating an enabling environment for the integration, and provides recommendations for further progress. The study is based on a document analysis of the relevant DRM, climate change (CC), agriculture, forestry, water management and meteorology policy documents and Acts, and 21 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders. Horizontal integration has occurred both ways, as the revised DRM policy draft has incorporated CCA, and the new CC policy draft has incorporated DRR. This is not necessarily an optimal strategy and unless carefully implemented, it may create pressure on institutional structures and duplication of efforts in the implementation. Much less vertical integration takes place, and where it does, no guidance on how potential goal conflicts with sectorial and development objectives ought to be handled. The objectives of the instruments show convergence. At the programme stage, the measures are fully integrated as they can be classified as robust CCA measures, providing benefits in the current and future

  15. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    The absence of a global agreement on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions calls for adaptation to climate change. The associated paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change...... adaptation needed. Issues that must be addressed in case a strategic approach is not developed, as the building sector is continuously investing in measures to adapt to climate change as impacts emerge are described....

  16. Responding to climate change in New York State: the ClimAID integrated assessment for effective climate change adaptation in New York State. Final report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is already beginning to affect New York State, and these impacts are projected to grow. At the same time, the state has the ability to develop adaptation strategies to prepare for and respond to climate risks now and in the future. The ClimAID assessment provides information on climate change impacts and adaptation for eight sectors in New York State: water resources, coastal zones, ecosystems, agriculture, energy, transportation,telecommunications, and public health. Observed climate trends and future climate projections were developed for seven regions across the state. Within each of the sectors, climate risks, vulnerabilities, and adaptation strategies are identified. Integrating themes across all of the sectors are equity and environmental justice and economics.Case studies are used to examine specific vulnerabilities and potential adaptation strategies in each of the eight sectors. These case studies also illustrate the linkages among climate vulnerabilities, risks, and adaptation, and demonstrate specific monitoring needs. Stakeholder participation was critical to the ClimAID assessment process to ensure relevance to decision makers across the state.

  17. Tailored stakeholder products help provide a vulnerability and adaptation assessment of Greek forests due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannakopoulos, Christos; Karali, Anna; Roussos, Anargyros

    2014-05-01

    Greece, being part of the eastern Mediterranean basin, is an area particularly vulnerable to climate change and associated forest fire risk. The aim of this study is to assess the vulnerability of Greek forests to fire risk occurrence and identify potential adaptation options within the context of climate change through continuous interaction with local stakeholders. To address their needs, the following tools for the provision of climate information services were developed: 1. An application providing fire risk forecasts for the following 3 days (http://cirrus.meteo.noa.gr/forecast/bolam/index.htm) was developed from NOA to address the needs of short term fire planners. 2. A web-based application providing long term fire risk and other fire related indices changes due to climate change (time horizon up to 2050 and 2100) was developed in collaboration with the WWF Greece office to address the needs of long term fire policy makers (http://www.oikoskopio.gr/map/). 3. An educational tool was built in order to complement the two web-based tools and to further expand knowledge in fire risk modeling to address the needs for in-depth training. In particular, the second product provided the necessary information to assess the exposure to forest fires. To this aim, maps depicting the days with elevated fire risk (FWI>30) both for the control (1961-1990) and the near future period (2021-2050) were created by the web-application. FWI is a daily index that provides numerical ratings of relative fire potential based solely on weather observations. The meteorological inputs to the FWI System are daily noon values of temperature, air relative humidity, 10m wind speed and precipitation during the previous 24 hours. It was found that eastern lowlands are more exposed to fire risk followed by eastern high elevation areas, for both the control and near future period. The next step towards vulnerability assessment was to address sensitivity, ie the human-environmental conditions that

  18. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2013-01-01

    It has been a world priority for more than a decade to reduc greenhouse gas emissions within the frame of the Kyoto Protocol. However, since the Kyoto Protocol it has proved difficult to reach an international consensus at the Conference of the Parties on the continuation of a global agreement...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  19. Mitigation strategies and unforseen consequences: A systematic assessment of the adaption of upper midwest agriculture to future climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doering, O.; Lowenberg-DeBoer, J.; Habeck, M. [and others

    1997-12-31

    Our starting point is the assumption of global climate change that doubles CO{sub 2} in the Upper Midwest by 2050. This work then concentrates on determining agriculture in the Upper Midwest successfully adapts to such a climate change.

  20. A model-based assessment of adaptation options for Chianti wine production in Tuscany (Italy) under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhu, X.; Moriondo, M.; Ierland, van E.C.; Trombi, G.; Bindi, M.

    2016-01-01

    This paper covers a comprehensive economic analysis of climate change adaptation options for a specific wine producing region, namely Tuscany. As temperature increases under climate change, rainfall patterns will be different, and Chianti wine production in Tuscany therefore needs to adapt in the

  1. The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Isaac, M.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Arnell, N.; Barker, T.; Criqui, P.; Berkhout, F.; Hilderink, H.; Hinkel, J.; Hof, Andries|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/240412397; Kitous, A.; Kram, T.; Mechler, R.; Scrieciu, S.

    2011-01-01

    Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 °C by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation

  2. Mitochondrial genome sequences of Artemia tibetiana and Artemia urmiana: assessing molecular changes for high plateau adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hangxiao; Luo, Qibin; Sun, Jing; Liu, Fei; Wu, Gang; Yu, Jun; Wang, Weiwei

    2013-05-01

    Brine shrimps, Artemia (Crustacea, Anostraca), inhabit hypersaline environments and have a broad geographical distribution from sea level to high plateaus. Artemia therefore possess significant genetic diversity, which gives them their outstanding adaptability. To understand this remarkable plasticity, we sequenced the mitochondrial genomes of two Artemia tibetiana isolates from the Tibetan Plateau in China and one Artemia urmiana isolate from Lake Urmia in Iran and compared them with the genome of a low-altitude Artemia, A. franciscana. We compared the ratio of the rate of nonsynonymous (Ka) and synonymous (Ks) substitutions (Ka/Ks ratio) in the mitochondrial protein-coding gene sequences and found that atp8 had the highest Ka/Ks ratios in comparisons of A. franciscana with either A. tibetiana or A. urmiana and that atp6 had the highest Ka/Ks ratio between A. tibetiana and A. urmiana. Atp6 may have experienced strong selective pressure for high-altitude adaptation because although A. tibetiana and A. urmiana are closely related they live at different altitudes. We identified two extended termination-associated sequences and three conserved sequence blocks in the D-loop region of the mitochondrial genomes. We propose that sequence variations in the D-loop region and in the subunits of the respiratory chain complexes independently or collectively contribute to the adaptation of Artemia to different altitudes.

  3. The Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Program, Climate Services, and Meeting the National Climate Change Adaptation Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overpeck, J. T.; Udall, B.; Miles, E.; Dow, K.; Anderson, C.; Cayan, D.; Dettinger, M.; Hartmann, H.; Jones, J.; Mote, P.; Ray, A.; Shafer, M.; White, D.

    2008-12-01

    The NOAA-led RISA Program has grown steadily to nine regions and a focus that includes both natural climate variability and human-driven climate change. The RISAs are, at their core, university-based and heavily invested in partnerships, particularly with stakeholders, NOAA, and other federal agencies. RISA research, assessment and partnerships have led to new operational climate services within NOAA and other agencies, and have become important foundations in the development of local, state and regional climate change adaptation initiatives. The RISA experience indicates that a national climate service is needed, and must include: (1) services prioritized based on stakeholder needs; (2) sustained, ongoing regional interactions with users, (3) a commitment to improve climate literacy; (4) support for assessment as an ongoing, iterative process; (5) full recognition that stakeholder decisions are seldom made using climate information alone; (6) strong interagency partnership; (7) national implementation and regional in focus; (8) capability spanning local, state, tribal, regional, national and international space scales, and weeks to millennia time scales; and (9) institutional design and scientific support flexible enough to assure the effort is nimble enough to respond to rapidly-changing stakeholder needs. The RISA experience also highlights the central role that universities must play in national climate change adaptation programs. Universities have a tradition of trusted regional stakeholder partnerships, as well as the interdisciplinary expertise - including social science, ecosystem science, law, and economics - required to meet stakeholder climate-related needs; project workforce can also shift rapidly in universities. Universities have a proven ability to build and sustain interagency partnerships. Universities excel in most forms of education and training. And universities often have proven entrepreneurship, technology transfer and private sector

  4. Moving from awareness to action: Advancing climate change vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning for Idaho and Montana National Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kershner, Jessi; Woodward, Andrea; Torregrosa, Alicia

    2016-01-01

    The rugged landscapes of northern Idaho and western Montana support biodiverse ecosystems, and provide a variety of natural resources and services for human communities. However, the benefits provided by these ecosystems may be at risk as changing climate magnifies existing stressors and allows new stressors to emerge. Preparation for and response to these potential changes can be most effectively addressed through multi-stakeholder partnerships, evaluating vulnerability of important resources to climate change, and developing response and preparation strategies for managing key natural resources in a changing world. This project will support climate-smart conservation and management across forests of northern Idaho and western Montana through three main components: (1) fostering partnerships among scientists, land managers, regional landowners, conservation practitioners, and the public; (2) assessing the vulnerability of a suite of regionally important resources to climate change and other stressors; and (3) creating a portfolio of adaptation strategies and actions to help resource managers prepare for and respond to the likely impacts of climate change. The results of this project will be used to inform the upcoming land management plan revisions for national forests, helping ensure that the most effective and robust conservation and management strategies are implemented to preserve our natural resources.

  5. A framework for assessing climate change vulnerability and identifying adaptation responses in the central hardwoods region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia R. Butler; Leslie A. Brandt; Stephen D. Handler; Maria K. Janowiak; Patricia D. Shannon; Chris W. Swanston

    2014-01-01

    The Central Hardwood region contains a mosaic of forests, woodlands, savannas, and other ecosystems that will increasingly be affected by a changing climate over the next century. Understanding potential impacts is important to sustaining healthy forests under changing conditions. The objectives of the Climate Change Response Framework (forestadaptation.org) are to...

  6. Towards Applying Climate Change Adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidt-Thomé, Philipp

    2017-01-01

    Climate change adaptation has been growing in importance since the beginning of the 21st century. Historically adaptation, not to climate change but to extreme events, was deeply rooted in many societies and their land-use structures. With industrialization, and especially the increase in globalization since the 1990’s the importance of appropriate adaptation has slowly decreased, leading to increased exposure and risks of human settlements in areas potentially affected by climate change impa...

  7. Adaptation of forest ecosystems to air pollution and climate change: a global assessment on research priorities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Y. Serengil; A. Augustaitis; Andrzej Bytnerowicz; Nancy Grulke; A.R. Kozovitz; R. Matyssek; G. Müller-Starck; M. Schaub; G. Wieser; A.A. Coskun; E. Paoletti

    2011-01-01

    Climate change and air pollution are two of the anthropogenic stressors that require international collaboration. Influence mechanisms and combating strategies towards them have similarities to some extent. Impacts of air pollution and climate change have long been studied under IUFRO Research Group 7.01 and state of the art findings are presented at biannual meetings...

  8. Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles; hide

    2015-01-01

    The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-series of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developed, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for agricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have reduced the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the cross-cutting themes in AgMIP's work

  9. Climate change and North American rangelands: Assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda A. Joyce; David D. Briske; Joel R. Brown; H. Wayne Polley; Bruce A. McCarl; Derek W. Bailey

    2013-01-01

    Recent climatic trends and climate model projections indicate that climate change will modify rangeland ecosystem functions and the services and livelihoods that they provision. Recent history has demonstrated that climatic variability has a strong influence on both ecological and social components of rangeland systems and that these systems possess substantial...

  10. Adaptive filtering and change detection

    CERN Document Server

    Gustafsson, Fredrik

    2003-01-01

    Adaptive filtering is a classical branch of digital signal processing (DSP). Industrial interest in adaptive filtering grows continuously with the increase in computer performance that allows ever more conplex algorithms to be run in real-time. Change detection is a type of adaptive filtering for non-stationary signals and is also the basic tool in fault detection and diagnosis. Often considered as separate subjects Adaptive Filtering and Change Detection bridges a gap in the literature with a unified treatment of these areas, emphasizing that change detection is a natural extensi

  11. Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    S. Mark Howden; Jean-François Soussana; Francesco N. Tubiello; Netra Chhetri; Michael Dunlop; Holger Meinke

    2007-01-01

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently...

  12. Adaptability Responding Effectively to Change

    CERN Document Server

    (CCL), Center for Creative Leadership; Calarco, Allan

    2011-01-01

    In today's business world, the complexity and pace of change can be daunting. Adaptability has become recognized as a necessary skill for leaders to develop to be effective in this environment. Even so, leaders rarely know what they can do to become more adaptable and foster adaptability in others. This guidebook contributes to a greater understanding of adaptability and the cognitive, emotional, and dispositional flexibility it requires. Leaders will learn how to develop their adaptability and to become more effective for themselves, the people they lead, and their organizations.

  13. Quantitative assessment of the importance of phenotypic plasticity in adaptation to climate change in wild bird populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar Vedder

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Predictions about the fate of species or populations under climate change scenarios typically neglect adaptive evolution and phenotypic plasticity, the two major mechanisms by which organisms can adapt to changing local conditions. As a consequence, we have little understanding of the scope for organisms to track changing environments by in situ adaptation. Here, we use a detailed individual-specific long-term population study of great tits (Parus major breeding in Wytham Woods, Oxford, UK to parameterise a mechanistic model and thus directly estimate the rate of environmental change to which in situ adaptation is possible. Using the effect of changes in early spring temperature on temporal synchrony between birds and a critical food resource, we focus in particular on the contribution of phenotypic plasticity to population persistence. Despite using conservative estimates for evolutionary and reproductive potential, our results suggest little risk of population extinction under projected local temperature change; however, this conclusion relies heavily on the extent to which phenotypic plasticity tracks the changing environment. Extrapolating the model to a broad range of life histories in birds suggests that the importance of phenotypic plasticity for adjustment to projected rates of temperature change increases with slower life histories, owing to lower evolutionary potential. Understanding the determinants and constraints on phenotypic plasticity in natural populations is thus crucial for characterising the risks that rapidly changing environments pose for the persistence of such populations.

  14. Sustainability Impact Assessment of two forest-based bioenergy production systems related to mitigation and adaption to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gartzia-Bengoetxea, Nahia; Arias-González, Ander; Tuomasjukka, Diana

    2016-04-01

    New forest management strategies are necessary to resist and adapt to Climate Change (CC) and to maintain ecosystem functions such as forest productivity, water storage and biomass production. The increased use of forest-based biomass for energy generation as well as the application of combustion or pyrolysis co-products such as ash or biochar back into forest soils is being suggested as a CC mitigation and adaptation strategy while trying to fulfil the targets of both: (i) Europe 2020 growth strategy in relation to CC and energy sustainability and (ii) EU Action Plan for the Circular Economy. The energy stored in harvested biomass can be released through combustion and used for energy generation to enable national energy security (reduced oil dependence) and the substitution of fossil fuel by renewable biomass can decrease the emission of greenhouse gases.In the end, the wood-ash produced in the process can return to the forest soil to replace the nutrients exported by harvesting. Another way to use biomass in this green circular framework is to pyrolyse it. Pyrolysis of the biomass produce a carbon-rich product (biochar) that can increase carbon sequestration in the soils and liquid and gas co-products of biomass pyrolysis can be used for energy generation or other fuel use thereby offsetting fossil fuel consumption and so avoiding greenhouse gas emissions. Both biomass based energy systems differ in the amount of energy produced, in the co-product (biochar or wood ash) returned to the field, and in societal impacts they have. The Tool for Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA) was used for modelling both energy production systems. ToSIA integrates several different methods, and allows a quantification and objective comparison of economic, environmental and social impacts in a sustainability impact assessment for different decision alternatives/scenarios. We will interpret the results in order to support the bioenergy planning in temperate forests under the

  15. Climate change assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda A. Joyce

    2008-01-01

    The science associated with climate and its effects on ecosystems, economies, and social systems is developing rapidly. Climate change assessments can serve as an important synthesis of this science and provide the information and context for management and policy decisions on adaptation and mitigation. This topic paper describes the variety of climate change...

  16. An integrated framework for assessing vulnerability to climate change and developing adaptation strategies for coffee growing families in Mesoamerica.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Baca

    Full Text Available The Mesoamerican region is considered to be one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change. We developed a framework for quantifying the vulnerability of the livelihoods of coffee growers in Mesoamerica at regional and local levels and identify adaptation strategies. Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC concepts, vulnerability was defined as the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. To quantify exposure, changes in the climatic suitability for coffee and other crops were predicted through niche modelling based on historical climate data and locations of coffee growing areas from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Future climate projections were generated from 19 Global Circulation Models. Focus groups were used to identify nine indicators of sensitivity and eleven indicators of adaptive capacity, which were evaluated through semi-structured interviews with 558 coffee producers. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were then condensed into an index of vulnerability, and adaptation strategies were identified in participatory workshops. Models predict that all target countries will experience a decrease in climatic suitability for growing Arabica coffee, with highest suitability loss for El Salvador and lowest loss for Mexico. High vulnerability resulted from loss in climatic suitability for coffee production and high sensitivity through variability of yields and out-migration of the work force. This was combined with low adaptation capacity as evidenced by poor post harvest infrastructure and in some cases poor access to credit and low levels of social organization. Nevertheless, the specific contributors to vulnerability varied strongly among countries, municipalities and families making general trends difficult to identify. Flexible strategies for adaption are therefore needed. Families need the support of government and institutions specialized in impacts of

  17. An integrated framework for assessing vulnerability to climate change and developing adaptation strategies for coffee growing families in Mesoamerica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baca, María; Läderach, Peter; Haggar, Jeremy; Schroth, Götz; Ovalle, Oriana

    2014-01-01

    The Mesoamerican region is considered to be one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change. We developed a framework for quantifying the vulnerability of the livelihoods of coffee growers in Mesoamerica at regional and local levels and identify adaptation strategies. Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concepts, vulnerability was defined as the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. To quantify exposure, changes in the climatic suitability for coffee and other crops were predicted through niche modelling based on historical climate data and locations of coffee growing areas from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Future climate projections were generated from 19 Global Circulation Models. Focus groups were used to identify nine indicators of sensitivity and eleven indicators of adaptive capacity, which were evaluated through semi-structured interviews with 558 coffee producers. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were then condensed into an index of vulnerability, and adaptation strategies were identified in participatory workshops. Models predict that all target countries will experience a decrease in climatic suitability for growing Arabica coffee, with highest suitability loss for El Salvador and lowest loss for Mexico. High vulnerability resulted from loss in climatic suitability for coffee production and high sensitivity through variability of yields and out-migration of the work force. This was combined with low adaptation capacity as evidenced by poor post harvest infrastructure and in some cases poor access to credit and low levels of social organization. Nevertheless, the specific contributors to vulnerability varied strongly among countries, municipalities and families making general trends difficult to identify. Flexible strategies for adaption are therefore needed. Families need the support of government and institutions specialized in impacts of climate change and

  18. Testing a participatory integrated assessment (PIA approach to select climate change adaptation actions to enhance wetland sustainability: The case of Poyang Lake region in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Huang

    2015-06-01

    It should be noted that while the case study evaluated adaptation policies or options to climate change, it was not completed in terms of discussing in detail all the key components of the PIA approach. However, the case study represents the state-of-the-arts research in climate change impact assessment and adaptation option evaluation, particularly in linking with wetland ecosystem sustainability. Findings of the case study have indicated that the potential effects of climate change on wetland sustainability are quite significant. The case has also identified adaptation measures considered by stakeholders to be potentially effective for reducing vulnerability of wetland ecosystems. It is clear that wetland ecosystem sustainability goals will be unachievable without mainstreaming adaptation measures into wetland conservation and health programs under a changing climate.

  19. Military Adaptation to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-01

    of Defense United States of America Environment, Energy Security and Sustainability Symposium (May 9-12, 2011) Military Adaptation to Climate Change ...2011 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2011 to 00-00-2011 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Military Adaptation to Climate Change 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER... climate change . …” Remarks at the Halifax International Security Forum, Halifax, Nova Scotia Nov 2009 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review For the first

  20. Holistic view to integrated climate change assessment and extreme weather adaptation in the Lake Victoria Basin East Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutua, F.; Koike, T.

    2013-12-01

    Extreme weather events have been the leading cause of disasters and damage all over the world.The primary ingredient to these disasters especially floods is rainfall which over the years, despite advances in modeling, computing power and use of new data and technologies, has proven to be difficult to predict. Also, recent climate projections showed a pattern consistent with increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme events in the East African region.We propose a holistic integrated approach to climate change assessment and extreme event adaptation through coupling of analysis techniques, tools and data. The Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) in East Africa supports over three million livelihoods and is a valuable resource to five East African countries as a source of water and means of transport. However, with a Mesoscale weather regime driven by land and lake dynamics,extreme Mesoscale events have been prevalent and the region has been on the receiving end during anomalously wet years in the region. This has resulted in loss of lives, displacements, and food insecurity. In the LVB, the effects of climate change are increasingly being recognized as a significant contributor to poverty, by its linkage to agriculture, food security and water resources. Of particular importance are the likely impacts of climate change in frequency and intensity of extreme events. To tackle this aspect, this study adopted an integrated regional, mesoscale and basin scale approach to climate change assessment. We investigated the projected changes in mean climate over East Africa, diagnosed the signals of climate change in the atmosphere, and transferred this understanding to mesoscale and basin scale. Changes in rainfall were analyzed and similar to the IPCC AR4 report; the selected three General Circulation Models (GCMs) project a wetter East Africa with intermittent dry periods in June-August. Extreme events in the region are projected to increase; with the number of wet days

  1. Conservation and adaptation to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooke, Cassandra

    2008-12-01

    The need to adapt to climate change has become increasingly apparent, and many believe the practice of biodiversity conservation will need to alter to face this challenge. Conservation organizations are eager to determine how they should adapt their practices to climate change. This involves asking the fundamental question of what adaptation to climate change means. Most studies on climate change and conservation, if they consider adaptation at all, assume it is equivalent to the ability of species to adapt naturally to climate change as stated in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation, however, can refer to an array of activities that range from natural adaptation, at one end of the spectrum, to sustainability science in coupled human and natural systems at the other. Most conservation organizations deal with complex systems in which adaptation to climate change involves making decisions on priorities for biodiversity conservation in the face of dynamic risks and involving the public in these decisions. Discursive methods such as analytic deliberation are useful for integrating scientific knowledge with public perceptions and values, particularly when large uncertainties and risks are involved. The use of scenarios in conservation planning is a useful way to build shared understanding at the science-policy interface. Similarly, boundary organizations-organizations or institutions that bridge different scales or mediate the relationship between science and policy-could prove useful for managing the transdisciplinary nature of adaptation to climate change, providing communication and brokerage services and helping to build adaptive capacity. The fact that some nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are active across the areas of science, policy, and practice makes them well placed to fulfill this role in integrated assessments of biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change.

  2. Climate Change Adaptation Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    A list of on-line training modules to help local government officials and those interested in water management issues better understand how the changing climate affects the services and resources they care about

  3. MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION INTO ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2017-10-02

    Oct 2, 2017 ... need to mainstream climate change adaptation into development planning at the national and sub-national levels ... and the risks associated with climate change will become more severe over time. In .... sustainable natural resource management, but broader policies relating to climate change are yet to be ...

  4. Turning points in climate change adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saskia Elisabeth. Werners

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Concerned decision makers increasingly pose questions as to whether current management practices are able to cope with climate change and increased climate variability. This signifies a shift in the framing of climate change from asking what its potential impacts are to asking whether it induces policy failure and unacceptable change. In this paper, we explore the background, feasibility, and consequences of this new framing. We focus on the specific situation in which a social-political threshold of concern is likely to be exceeded as a result of climate change, requiring consideration of alternative strategies. Action is imperative when such a situation is conceivable, and at this point climate change becomes particularly relevant to decision makers. We call this situation an "adaptation turning point." The assessment of adaptation turning points converts uncertainty surrounding the extent of a climate impact into a time range over which it is likely that specific thresholds will be exceeded. This can then be used to take adaptive action. Despite the difficulty in identifying adaptation turning points and the relative newness of the approach, experience so far suggests that the assessment generates a meaningful dialogue between stakeholders and scientists. Discussion revolves around the amount of change that is acceptable; how likely it is that unacceptable, or more favorable, conditions will be reached; and the adaptation pathways that need to be considered under these circumstances. Defining and renegotiating policy objectives under climate change are important topics in the governance of adaptation.

  5. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Cathy Egan

    The most vulnerable populations are those with few resources to cope with climate change impacts such as desertification, soil ... Canada's International Development Research Centre (IDRC) is one of the world's leading institutions in the generation and application of new knowledge to meet the challenges of international ...

  6. Assessing an Adaptive Cycle in a Social System under External Pressure to Change: the Importance of Intergroup Relations in Recreational Fisheries Governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katrin Daedlow

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The adaptive cycle constitutes a heuristic originally used to interpret the dynamics of complex ecosystems in response to disturbance and change. It is assumed that socially constructed governance systems go through similar phases (K, Ω [omega], α [alpha], r as evident in ecological adaptive cycles. Two key dimensions of change shaping the four phases of an adaptive cycle are the degree of connectedness and the range of potential in the system. Our purpose was to quantitatively assess the four phases of the adaptive cycle in a social system by measuring the potential and connectedness dimensions and their different levels in each of the four phases. We assessed these dimensions using quantitative data from content analysis of magazine articles describing the transition process of East German recreational fisheries governance after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. This process was characterized by the discussion of two governance alternatives amendable for implementation: a central East German and a decentralized West German approach. Contrary to assumptions in the adaptive cycle heuristic, we were unable to identify the four phases of the adaptive cycle in our governance system based on quantitatively assessed levels of connectedness and potential alone. However, the insertion of in-group (East Germans and out-group (West Germans dimensions representing the two governance alternatives in our analysis enabled us to identify the specific time frames for all four phases of the adaptive cycle on a monthly basis. These findings suggest that an unmodified "figure-eight model" of the adaptive cycle may not necessarily hold in social systems. Inclusion of disciplinary theories such as intergroup relation theory will help in understanding adaptation processes in social systems.

  7. Climate change adaptation in Ethiopia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weldegebriel, Zerihun Berhane; Prowse, Martin

    Ethiopia is vulnerable to climate change due to its limited development and dependence on agriculture. Social protection schemes like the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) can play a positive role in promoting livelihoods and enhancing households’ risk management. This article examines......, they suggest the PSNP may not be helping smallholders diversify income sources in a positive manner for climate adaptation. The article concludes by arguing for further investigation of the PSNP’s influence on smallholders’ adaptation strategies....

  8. Impacts Of Climate Change On Ecosystems Management In Africa: An Assessment Of Disaster Risk Management And Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndebele-Murisa, M. R.

    2015-12-01

    This paper is a synthesis of eight studies which demonstrate the interface between disaster risk management (DRM) and adaptation. The studies; conducted from November 2011 to July 2012 included diverse ecosystems from forests, coastlines, rural areas to a lake region and showed that climate change/variability are major factors among other factors such as deforestation and land degradation, unsustainable land use practices, overharvesting of natural products and invasive species encroachment that are causing changes in ecosystems. The most common extreme events reported included shifts in and shorter rainfall seasons, extended droughts, increased temperatures, extreme heat, heavy rainfall, flooding, inundation, strong winds and sea level rises. As a result of these climate phenomena, adverse impacts on ecosystems and communities were reported as biodiversity loss, reduced fish catch, reduced water for forests/agriculture/consumption, increased rough waves, coastal erosion/sediment deposition and lastly land/mud slides in order of commonality. In response to these impacts communities are practicing coping and adaptation strategies but there is a huge gap between proper DRM and adaptation. This is mainly because the adaptation is practiced as an aftermath with very little effort propelled towards proactive DRM or preparedness. In addition, national level policies are archaic and do not address the current environmental changes. This was demonstrated in Togo where wood energy potential is deteriorating at an unprecedented rate but is projected to increase between 6.4% and 101% in the near and far future if the national forest action plans are implemented; preventing an energy crisis in the country. This shows that appropriate legal and policy frameworks and well planned responses to projected extreme events and climate changes are crucial in order to prevent disasters and to achieve sustainable utilisation of resources in the continent.

  9. Assessment of perception and adaptation to climate-related glacier changes in the arid Rivers Basin in northwestern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guofeng, Zhu; Dahe, Qin; Jiawen, Ren; Feng, Liang; Huali, Tong

    2017-06-01

    In many mountainous areas of the world, glaciers serve as a source of fresh water that is of critical importance and contributes to the sustainability of agriculture and other socio-economic activities. An enhanced understanding of socio-economic consequences of the climate-related glacier changes is essential to the identification of vulnerable entities and the development of well-targeted environmental adaptation policies. A questionnaire and interviews of farmers in the Heihe River Basin were used to analyze their perception of cryospheric changes, attitudes towards mitigation of cryospheric changes, and the ways in which they perceived their responsibility. Preferred responses and interventions for cryospheric change and views on responsible parties were also collected and evaluated. Our investigation revealed that most rural residents were concerned about glacier changes and believed they would bring harm to present society, individuals, and families, as well as to future generations. The respondents' perceptions were mainly influenced by the mass media. Most respondents tended to favor adaptation measures implemented by the government and other policy-making departments. An integrated approach will be needed to deal with the challenges to tackling climate-related glacier change.

  10. Methodological framework, analytical tool and database for the assessment of climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten; Gregg, Jay Sterling

    This report was prepared at the request of and funded by the Coordination Unit for Research in Climate Change Adaptation (KFT). The report is a milestone of the project titled “Udvikling af metodisk ramme for dansk analytisk værktøj og database over klimasårbarhed og klimatilpasning”, funded by K...... in this report should be considered work-in-progress. The analysis was conducted by DHI as part of the DSF project Centre for Regional Change of the Earth System (CRES)....

  11. Assessing water resources adaptive capacity to climate change impacts in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlet, A. F.

    2011-05-01

    provide a reasonably solid foundation for coping with climate change impacts, and that the mandates of existing water resources policy and water resources management institutions are at least consistent with the fundamental objectives of climate change adaptation. A deeper inquiry into the underlying nature of PNW water resources systems, however, reveals significant and persistent obstacles to climate change adaptation, which will need to be overcome if effective use of the region's extensive water resources management capacity can be brought to bear on this problem. Primary obstacles include assumptions of stationarity as the fundamental basis of water resources system design, entrenched use of historical records as the sole basis for planning, problems related to the relatively short time scale of planning, lack of familiarity with climate science and models, downscaling procedures, and hydrologic models, limited access to climate change scenarios and hydrologic products for specific water systems, and rigid water allocation and water resources operating rules that effectively block adaptive response. Institutional barriers include systematic loss of technical capacity in many water resources agencies following the dam building era, jurisdictional fragmentation affecting response to drought, disconnections between water policy and practice, and entrenched bureaucratic resistance to change in many water management agencies. These factors, combined with a federal agenda to block climate change policy in the US during the Bush administration have (with some exceptions) contributed to widespread institutional "gridlock" in the PNW over the last decade or so despite a growing awareness of climate change as a significant threat to water management. In the last several years, however, significant progress has been made in surmounting some of these obstacles, and the region's water resources agencies at all levels of governance are making progress in addressing the fundamental

  12. Longitudinal assessment of daily activity patterns on weight change after involuntary job loss: the ADAPT study protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia L. Haynes

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The World Health Organization has identified obesity as one of the most visible and neglected public health problems worldwide. Meta-analytic studies suggest that insufficient sleep increases the risk of developing obesity and related serious medical conditions. Unfortunately, the nationwide average sleep duration has steadily declined over the last two decades with 25% of U.S. adults reporting insufficient sleep. Stress is also an important indirect factor in obesity, and chronic stress and laboratory-induced stress negatively impact sleep. Despite what we know from basic sciences about (a stress and sleep and (b sleep and obesity, we know very little about how these factors actually manifest in a natural environment. The Assessing Daily Activity Patterns Through Occupational Transitions (ADAPT study tests whether sleep disruption plays a key role in the development of obesity for individuals exposed to involuntary job loss, a life event that is often stressful and disrupting to an individual’s daily routine. Methods This is an 18-month closed, cohort research design examining social rhythms, sleep, dietary intake, energy expenditure, waist circumference, and weight gain over 18 months in individuals who have sustained involuntary job loss. Approximately 332 participants who lost their job within the last 3 months are recruited from flyers within the Arizona Department of Economic Security (AZDES Unemployment Insurance Administration application packets and other related postings. Multivariate growth curve modeling will be used to investigate the temporal precedence of changes in social rhythms, sleep, and weight gain. Discussion It is hypothesized that: (1 unemployed individuals with less consistent social rhythms and worse sleep will have steeper weight gain trajectories over 18 months than unemployed individuals with stable social rhythms and better sleep; (2 disrupted sleep will mediate the relationship between

  13. Assessing the 20th century performance of global climate models and application to climate change adaptation planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geil, Kerrie

    Rapid environmental changes linked to human-induced increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been observed on a global scale over recent decades. Given the relative certainty of continued change across many earth systems, the information output from climate models is an essential resource for adaptation planning. But in the face of many known modeling deficiencies, how confident can we be in model projections of future climate? It stands to reason that a realistic simulation of the present climate is at least a necessary (but likely not sufficient) requirement for a model's ability to realistically simulate the climate of the future. Here, I present the results of three studies that evaluate the 20th century performance of global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).

  14. A multi-institutional and interdisciplinary approach to the assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the Peruvian Central Andes: problems and prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. G. Martínez

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available A local integrated assessment of the vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the Mantaro River Basin, located in Peruvian Central Andes, was developed between years 2003 to 2005. In this paper we present some lessons learned during the development of this study, emphasizing the multi-institutional and interdisciplinary efforts, briefly showing the methodological aspects, and pointing out the main problems found.

  15. Climate change in Myanmar: impacts and adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Slagle, John T.

    2014-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Myanmar is a Least Developed Nation, according to the UN, and therefore is highly vulnerable to the negative effects of a changing climate. To assess the relationship between Myanmar and climate change, this thesis analyzes projected impacts on the nation and its people, the current state of adaptation, and how Myanmar’s government has prepared. Projected impacts are viewed through the lens of the most recent IPCC reports and climate m...

  16. Quantitative assessment of anatomical change using a virtual proton depth radiograph for adaptive head and neck proton therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Peng; Yin, Lingshu; Zhang, Yawei; Kirk, Maura; Song, Gang; Ahn, Peter H; Lin, Alexander; Gee, James; Dolney, Derek; Solberg, Timothy D; Maughan, Richard; McDonough, James; Teo, Boon-Keng Kevin

    2016-03-08

    The aim of this work is to demonstrate the feasibility of using water-equivalent thickness (WET) and virtual proton depth radiographs (PDRs) of intensity corrected cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) to detect anatomical change and patient setup error to trigger adaptive head and neck proton therapy. The planning CT (pCT) and linear accelerator (linac) equipped CBCTs acquired weekly during treatment of a head and neck patient were used in this study. Deformable image registration (DIR) was used to register each CBCT with the pCT and map Hounsfield units (HUs) from the planning CT (pCT) onto the daily CBCT. The deformed pCT is referred as the corrected CBCT (cCBCT). Two dimensional virtual lateral PDRs were generated using a ray-tracing technique to project the cumulative WET from a virtual source through the cCBCT and the pCT onto a virtual plane. The PDRs were used to identify anatomic regions with large variations in the proton range between the cCBCT and pCT using a threshold of 3 mm relative difference of WET and 3 mm search radius criteria. The relationship between PDR differences and dose distribution is established. Due to weight change and tumor response during treatment, large variations in WETs were observed in the relative PDRs which corresponded spatially with an increase in the number of failing points within the GTV, especially in the pharynx area. Failing points were also evident near the posterior neck due to setup variations. Differences in PDRs correlated spatially to differences in the distal dose distribution in the beam's eye view. Virtual PDRs generated from volumetric data, such as pCTs or CBCTs, are potentially a useful quantitative tool in proton therapy. PDRs and WET analysis may be used to detect anatomical change from baseline during treatment and trigger further analysis in adaptive proton therapy.

  17. Assessing the adaptive capacity of maize hybrids to climate change in an irrigated district of Southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monaco, Eugenia; Bonfante, Antonello; De Mascellis, Roberto; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Menenti, Massimo; De Lorenzi, Francesca

    2013-04-01

    Climate change will cause significant changes in water distribution and availability; as a consequence the water resources in some areas (like Mediterranean regions) will be limiting factors to the cultivation of some species, included cereals. So the perspective of climate change requires an analysis of the adaptation possibilities of food and fiber species currently cultivated. A powerful tool for adaptation is the relevant intra-specific biodiversity of crops. The knowledge, for different crop cultivars, of the responses to different environmental conditions (e.g. yield response functions to water regime) can be a tool to identify adaptation options to future climate. Moreover, simulation models of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system can be coupled with future climate scenarios to predict the soil water regime also accounting for different irrigation scheduling options. In this work the adaptive capacity of maize hybrids (Zea mays L.) was evaluated in an irrigated district of Southern Italy (the "Destra Sele" plain, an area of about 18.000 ha), where maize is extensively grown for water buffalo feeding. Horticultural crops (tomato, fennel, artichoke) are grown, as well. The methodology applied is based on two complementary elements: - a database on climatic requirements of 30 maize hybrids: the yield response functions to water availability were determined from experimental data derived both from scientific literature and from field trials carried out by ISAFOM-CNR. These functions were applied to describe the behaviour of the hybrids with respect to the relative evapotranspiration deficit; - the simulation performed by the agro-hydrological model SWAP (soil-water-plant and atmosphere), to determine the future soil water regime at landscape scale. Two climate scenarios were studied: "past" (1961-1990) and "future" (2021-2050). Future climate scenarios were generated within the Italian National Project AGROSCENARI. Climate scenarios at low spatial

  18. Learning to adapt: Organisational adaptation to climate change impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berkhout, F.G.H.; Hertin, J.; Gann, D.M.

    2006-01-01

    Analysis of human adaptation to climate change should be based on realistic models of adaptive behaviour at the level of organisations and individuals. The paper sets out a framework for analysing adaptation to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in business organisations with new

  19. Mitigating and adapting to climate change: multi-functional and multi-scale assessment of green urban infrastructure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demuzere, M; Orru, K; Heidrich, O; Olazabal, E; Geneletti, D; Orru, H; Bhave, A G; Mittal, N; Feliu, E; Faehnle, M

    2014-12-15

    In order to develop climate resilient urban areas and reduce emissions, several opportunities exist starting from conscious planning and design of green (and blue) spaces in these landscapes. Green urban infrastructure has been regarded as beneficial, e.g. by balancing water flows, providing thermal comfort. This article explores the existing evidence on the contribution of green spaces to climate change mitigation and adaptation services. We suggest a framework of ecosystem services for systematizing the evidence on the provision of bio-physical benefits (e.g. CO2 sequestration) as well as social and psychological benefits (e.g. improved health) that enable coping with (adaptation) or reducing the adverse effects (mitigation) of climate change. The multi-functional and multi-scale nature of green urban infrastructure complicates the categorization of services and benefits, since in reality the interactions between various benefits are manifold and appear on different scales. We will show the relevance of the benefits from green urban infrastructures on three spatial scales (i.e. city, neighborhood and site specific scales). We will further report on co-benefits and trade-offs between the various services indicating that a benefit could in turn be detrimental in relation to other functions. The manuscript identifies avenues for further research on the role of green urban infrastructure, in different types of cities, climates and social contexts. Our systematic understanding of the bio-physical and social processes defining various services allows targeting stressors that may hamper the provision of green urban infrastructure services in individual behavior as well as in wider planning and environmental management in urban areas. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Helsinki Metropolitan Area Climate Change Adaptation Strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    The Helsinki Metropolitan Area Climate Change Adaptation Strategy has been prepared in close cooperation with the four cities of the metropolitan area (Helsinki, Espoo, Vantaa and Kauniainen), the Helsinki Region Environmental Services Authority HSY and other municipal, regional and state level organisations. In the strategy, strategic starting points and policies with which the metropolitan area prepares for the consequences of climate change, are compiled. The Helsinki Metropolitan Area adaptation strategy concentrates on the adaptation of the built and urban environment to the changing climate. The vision of the strategy is climate proof city - the future is built now. The strategy aims to (1) assess the impacts of climate change in the area, (2) prepare for the impacts of climate change and to extreme weather events and (3) to reduce the vulnerabilities of the area to climate variability and change. The target is to secure the well-being of the citizens and the functioning of the cities also in the changing climate conditions. The preparation of the adaptation strategy started in 2009 by producing the background studies. They include the regional climate and sea level scenarios, modelling of river floods in climate change conditions and a survey of climate change impacts in the region. Also, existing programmes, legislation, research and studies concerning adaptation were collected. The background studies are published in a report titled 'The Helsinki metropolitan area climate is changing - Adaptation strategy background studies' (in Finnish) (HSY 2010). HSY coordinated the strategy preparation. The work was carried out is close cooperation with the experts of the metropolitan area cities, regional emergency services, Ministry of the Environment, Helsinki Region Transport Authority and other regional organisations. The strategy work has had a steering group that consists of representatives of the cities and other central cooperation partners. The

  1. An integrated framework to assess adaptation options to climate change impacts in an irrigated basin in Central North Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicuna, S.; Melo, O.; Meza, F. J.; Alvarez, P.; Maureira, F.; Sanchez, A.; Tapia, A.; Cortes, M.; Dale, L. L.

    2013-12-01

    Future climate conditions could potentially affect water supply and demand on water basins throughout the world but especially on snowmelt-driven agriculture oriented basins that can be found throughout central Chile. Increasing temperature and reducing precipitation will affect both the magnitude and timing of water supply this part of the world. Different adaptation strategies could be implemented to reduce the impacts of such scenarios. Some could be incorporated as planned policies decided at the basin or Water Use Organization levels. Examples include changing large scale irrigation infrastructure (reservoirs and main channels) either physically or its operation. Complementing these strategies it is reasonable to think that at a disaggregated level, farmers would also react (adapt) to these new conditions using a mix of options to either modify their patterns of consumption (irrigation efficiency, crop mix, crop area reduction), increase their ability to access new sources of water (groundwater, water markets) or finally compensate their expected losses (insurance). We present a modeling framework developed to represent these issues using as a case study the Limarí basin located in Central Chile. This basin is a renowned example of how the development of reservoirs and irrigation infrastructure can reduce climate vulnerabilities allowing the economic development of a basin. Farmers in this basin tackle climate variability by adopting different strategies that depend first on the reservoir water volume allocation rule, on the type and size of investment they have at their farms and finally their potential access to water markets and other water supplies options. The framework developed can be used to study these strategies under current and future climate scenarios. The cornerstone of the framework is an hydrology and water resources model developed on the WEAP platform. This model is able to reproduce the large scale hydrologic features of the basin such as

  2. Technologies for climate change adaptation. Agriculture sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, X. (ed.) (UNEP Risoe Centre, Roskilde (Denmark)); Clements, R.; Quezada, A.; Torres, J. (Practical Action Latin America, Lima (Peru)); Haggar, J. (Univ. of Greenwich, London (United Kingdom))

    2011-08-15

    This guidebook presents a selection of technologies for climate change adaptation in the agriculture sector. A set of 22 adaptation technologies are showcased. These are based primarily on the principles of agroecology, but also include scientific technologies of climate and biological sciences complemented by important sociological and institutional capacity building processes that are required for climate change to function. The technologies cover: 1) Planning for climate change and variability. 2) Sustainable water use and management. 3) Soil management. 4) Sustainable crop management. 5) Sustainable livestock management. 6) Sustainable farming systems. 7) Capacity building and stakeholder organisation. Technologies that tend to homogenise the natural environment and agricultural production have low possibilities of success in environmental stress conditions that are likely to result from climate change. On the other hand, technologies that allow for, and promote diversity are more likely to provide a strategy which strengthens agricultural production in the face of uncertain future climate change scenarios. The 22 technologies showcased in this guidebook have been selected because they facilitate the conservation and restoration of diversity while also providing opportunities for increasing agricultural productivity. Many of these technologies are not new to agricultural production practices, but they are implemented based on the assessment of current and possible future impacts of climate change in a particular location. agroecology is an approach that encompasses concepts of sustainable production and biodiversity promotion and therefore provides a useful framework for identifying and selecting appropriate adaptation technologies for the agriculture sector. The guidebook provides a systematic analysis of the most relevant information available on climate change adaptation technologies in the agriculture sector. It has been compiled based on a literature

  3. Transformational adaptation when incremental adaptations to climate change are insufficient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kates, Robert W; Travis, William R; Wilbanks, Thomas J

    2012-05-08

    All human-environment systems adapt to climate and its natural variation. Adaptation to human-induced change in climate has largely been envisioned as increments of these adaptations intended to avoid disruptions of systems at their current locations. In some places, for some systems, however, vulnerabilities and risks may be so sizeable that they require transformational rather than incremental adaptations. Three classes of transformational adaptations are those that are adopted at a much larger scale, that are truly new to a particular region or resource system, and that transform places and shift locations. We illustrate these with examples drawn from Africa, Europe, and North America. Two conditions set the stage for transformational adaptation to climate change: large vulnerability in certain regions, populations, or resource systems; and severe climate change that overwhelms even robust human use systems. However, anticipatory transformational adaptation may be difficult to implement because of uncertainties about climate change risks and adaptation benefits, the high costs of transformational actions, and institutional and behavioral actions that tend to maintain existing resource systems and policies. Implementing transformational adaptation requires effort to initiate it and then to sustain the effort over time. In initiating transformational adaptation focusing events and multiple stresses are important, combined with local leadership. In sustaining transformational adaptation, it seems likely that supportive social contexts and the availability of acceptable options and resources for actions are key enabling factors. Early steps would include incorporating transformation adaptation into risk management and initiating research to expand the menu of innovative transformational adaptations.

  4. Adapting agriculture to climate change: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin; Liu, De Li; Macadam, Ian; Kelly, Georgina

    2013-07-01

    The agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to future climate changes and climate variability, including increases in the incidence of extreme climate events. Changes in temperature and precipitation will result in changes in land and water regimes that will subsequently affect agricultural productivity. Given the gradual change of climate in the past, historically, farmers have adapted in an autonomous manner. However, with large and discrete climate change anticipated by the end of this century, planned and transformational changes will be needed. In light of these, the focus of this review is on farm-level and farmers responses to the challenges of climate change both spatially and over time. In this review of adapting agriculture to climate change, the nature, extent, and causes of climate change are analyzed and assessed. These provide the context for adapting agriculture to climate change. The review identifies the binding constraints to adaptation at the farm level. Four major priority areas are identified to relax these constraints, where new initiatives would be required, i.e., information generation and dissemination to enhance farm-level awareness, research and development (R&D) in agricultural technology, policy formulation that facilitates appropriate adaptation at the farm level, and strengthening partnerships among the relevant stakeholders. Forging partnerships among R&D providers, policy makers, extension agencies, and farmers would be at the heart of transformational adaptation to climate change at the farm level. In effecting this transformational change, sustained efforts would be needed for the attendant requirements of climate and weather forecasting and innovation, farmer's training, and further research to improve the quality of information, invention, and application in agriculture. The investment required for these would be highly significant. The review suggests a sequenced approach through grouping research initiatives into short

  5. PROTERINA-C: assessing the effects of Climate Change to enhance Community adaptation and Civil Protection response to wildfire risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cossu, Quirico Antonio; Gaetani, Francesco; Bodini, Antonella; Entrade, Erika; Fiorucci, Paolo; Parodi, Ulderica; Canu, Simona; Manca, Floriana

    2010-05-01

    PROTERINA C is a project funded by the EU under the Italy-France Maritime Programme. The objective of PROTERINA C is to make a multi sectorial assessment of the impact of climate change over an area of South Europe particularly affected by large and destructive wildfires: Sardinia, Liguria (Italy) and Corsica (France). A key concern of PROTERINA C is to investigate on the effects that climate change could have on the environment (fuels) and, in turn, on the whole wildfire risk of the considered area. A set of structural and non-structural measures to mitigate the effects of climate change on wildfire risk will be considered and eventually implemented with reference to some pilot areas. In this work we present the results obtained from the Phase 2 of the project, whose objective was to investigate on the influence that possible climate change signals could have on wildfire risk. Observational data (daily rainfall and temperature data) have been analyzed using time series with more than 30 years of complete records. This analysis, including trend analysis of a few selected indices of extreme events, has been used to characterize the territory with reference to the sizing and the timing of the wildfires occurred within the same period of time. The work provided a comprehensive analysis on the effects that climate conditions have on the average state of different kinds of fuels and, in turn, on wildfire risk scenarios, highlighting the biota and the zones of the considered area more exposed to the effects that climate change has on their vulnerability. The partnership of PROTERINA C includes the Civil Protection Directorates and the Environmental Agencies of Liguria and Sardinia Regions, along with scientific and academic bodies from Sardinia, Liguria and Corsica.

  6. Modeling adaptive and non-adaptive responses to environmental change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Coulson, Tim; Kendall, Bruce E; Barthold, Julia A.

    2017-01-01

    , with plastic responses being either adaptive or non-adaptive. We develop an approach that links quantitative genetic theory with data-driven structured models to allow prediction of population responses to environmental change via plasticity and adaptive evolution. After introducing general new theory, we...... construct a number of example models to demonstrate that evolutionary responses to environmental change over the short-term will be considerably slower than plastic responses, and that the rate of adaptive evolution to a new environment depends upon whether plastic responses are adaptive or non-adaptive......Understanding how the natural world will be impacted by environmental change over the coming decades is one of the most pressing challenges facing humanity. Addressing this challenge is difficult because environmental change can generate both population level plastic and evolutionary responses...

  7. Assessing newly introduced climate change adaptation strategy packages among rural households: Evidence from Kaou local government area, Tahoua State, Niger Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali M. Tabbo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This research discusses new strategies developed and introduced by national and international partners to help farmers in building adaptative capacity against the negative externalities of climate change. The purpose of this study is to determine and to assess the most important adaptation strategies introduced by development partners. Based on the recognition interview with farmers and synthesis of previous research, 13 strategies were compiled and included in the study. Thus, an advance in the balanced incomplete block design was used to design the questionnaire served as data collection tools. For each question, respondents were asked to choose their best and their worst strategies. Thus, the difference between the best and worst strategies consistent with random utility theory was used for the modelling. Results show that herd rebuilding, human capacity building, introduction of fishing, water and soil conservation activities, introduction of leafy vegetable such as Moringa oleifera, financial credit, forage seed marketing and introduction of agriculture inputs were the most important strategies, while the support to vegetable production, income-generating activities, the use of agricultural improved seed varieties, anti-fire band making and cereal bank introduction were the least important adaptation strategies for farmers. These results are therefore essential for the dissemination of adaptation strategies, thereby stimulating and maintaining sustainability development actions in the study area.

  8. Climate Change Adaptation and Vulnerability Assessment of Water Resources System in Developing Countries: A Generalized Framework and a Feasibility Study in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabrice G. Renaud

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Water is the primary medium through which climate change influences the Earth’s ecosystems and therefore people’s livelihoods and wellbeing. Besides climatic change, current demographic trends, economic development and related land use changes have direct impact on increasing demand for freshwater resources. Taken together, the net effect of these supply and demand changes is affecting the vulnerability of water resources. The concept of ‘vulnerability’ is not straightforward as there is no universally accepted approach for assessing vulnerability. In this study, we review the evolution of approaches to vulnerability assessment related to water resources. From the current practices, we identify research gaps, and approaches to overcome these gaps a generalized assessment framework is developed. A feasibility study is then presented in the context of the Lower Brahmaputra River Basin (LBRB. The results of the feasibility study identify the current main constraints (e.g., lack of institutional coordination and opportunities (e.g., adaptation of LBRB. The results of this study can be helpful for innovative research and management initiatives and the described framework can be widely used as a guideline for the vulnerability assessment of water resources systems, particularly in developing countries.

  9. Science of adaptation to climate change and science for adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rob eSwart

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Adaptation to climate change has gained a prominent place next to mitigation on global, national and local policy agendas. However, while an abundance of adaptation strategies, plans and programmes have been developed, progress in turning these into action has been slow. The development of a sound knowledge basis to support adaptation globally is suggested to accelerate progress, but has lagged behind. The emphasis in both current and newly proposed programmes is very much on practice-oriented research with strong stakeholder participation. This paper supports such practice-oriented research, but argues that this is insufficient to support adaptation policy and practice in a productive manner. We argue that there is not only a need for science for adaptation, but also a science of adaptation. The paper argues that participatory, practice-oriented research is indeed essential, but has to be complemented by and connected to more fundamental inquiry and concept development, which takes into account knowledge that has been developed in disciplinary sciences and on issues other than climate change adaptation. At the same time, the level and method of participation in science for adaptation should be determined on the basis of the specific project context and goals. More emphasis on science of adaptation can lead to improved understanding of the conditions for successful science for adaptation.

  10. Climate Change and Water Adaptation Options | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    The impacts of climate change are increasing in their severity around the world. At greatest risk: vulnerable communities in developing countries. This project aims to share the practical climate change adaptation solutions arising from IDRC-funded research. IDRC, climate change, and water adaptation Since 2006, IDRC ...

  11. Adaptation potential of European agriculture in response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Frances C.; Lobell, David B.

    2014-07-01

    Projecting the impacts of climate change on agriculture requires knowing or assuming how farmers will adapt. However, empirical estimates of the effectiveness of this private adaptation are scarce and the sensitivity of impact assessments to adaptation assumptions is not well understood. Here we assess the potential effectiveness of private farmer adaptation in Europe by jointly estimating both short-run and long-run response functions using time-series and cross-sectional variation in subnational yield and profit data. The difference between the impacts of climate change projected using the short-run (limited adaptation) and long-run (substantial adaptation) response curves can be interpreted as the private adaptation potential. We find high adaptation potential for maize to future warming but large negative effects and only limited adaptation potential for wheat and barley. Overall, agricultural profits could increase slightly under climate change if farmers adapt but could decrease in many areas if there is no adaptation. Decomposing the variance in 2040 projected yields and farm profits using an ensemble of 13 climate model runs, we find that the rate at which farmers will adapt to rising temperatures is an important source of uncertainty.

  12. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models....... enables the relative importance of the different factors (i.e. degree of climate change, assets value, discount rate etc.) to be determined, thus influencing the overall output of the assessment.......Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...

  13. Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing Countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mertz, Ole; Halsnæs, Kirsten; Olesen, Jørgen E.

    2009-01-01

    countries. It is concluded that although many useful steps have been taken in the direction of ensuring adequate adaptation in developing countries, much work still remains to fully understand the drivers of past adaptation efforts, the need for future adaptation, and how to mainstream climate into general......Adaptation to climate change is given increasing international attention as the confidence in climate change projections is getting higher. Developing countries have specific needs for adaptation due to high vulnerabilities, and they will in this way carry a great part of the global costs...... of climate change although the rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are mainly the responsibility of industrialized countries. This article provides a status of climate change adaptation in developing countries. An overview of observed and projected climate change is given, and recent literature...

  14. Europe adapts to climate change: Comparing National Adaptation Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biesbroek, G. Robbert; Swart, Rob J.; Carter, Timothy R.

    2010-01-01

    For the last two decades, European climate policy has focused almost exclusively on mitigation of climate change. It was only well after the turn of the century, with impacts of climate change increasingly being observed, that adaptation was added to the policy agenda and EU Member States started...... the development of a national adaptation strategy. Secondly, the scientific and technical support needed for the development and implementation of such a strategy. Thirdly, the role of the strategy in information, communication and awareness-raising of the adaptation issue. Fourthly, new or existing forms...... in the wider governance of adaptation differs between countries but clearly benchmarks a new political commitment to adaptation at national policy levels. However, we also find that in most cases approaches for implementing and evaluating the strategies are yet to be defined. The paper concludes that even...

  15. Assessing adaptive capacity of institutions to climate change : a comparative case study of the Dutch Wadden Sea and the Venice Lagoon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Munaretto, S.; Klostermann, J.E.M.

    2011-01-01

    In this study we assess the adaptive capacity of relevant institutions for ecosystems and environmental management in two complex systems: the Dutch Wadden Sea and the Venice Lagoon. A new tool called the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW) is used to diagnose strengths and weaknesses in the institutional

  16. Adapting to climate change : the public policy response - public infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-06-01

    This paper assesses the threats and needs that multidimensional climate change imposes for : public infrastructure, reviews the existing adaptive capacity that could be applied to respond : to these threats and needs, and presents options for enhanci...

  17. Adaptation pathways of global wheat production: Importance of strategic adaptation to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Akemi; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masutomi, Yuji; Hanasaki, Naota; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Shiogama, Hideo; Yamanaka, Yasuhiro

    2015-09-16

    Agricultural adaptation is necessary to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on crop yields and to maintain food production. However, few studies have assessed the course of adaptation along with the progress of climate change in each of the current major food producing countries. Adaptation pathways, which describe the temporal sequences of adaptations, are helpful for illustrating the timing and intensity of the adaptation required. Here we present adaptation pathways in the current major wheat-producing countries, based on sequential introduction of the minimum adaptation measures necessary to maintain current wheat yields through the 21st century. We considered two adaptation options: (i) expanding irrigation infrastructure; and (ii) switching crop varieties and developing new heat-tolerant varieties. We find that the adaptation pathways differ markedly among the countries. The adaptation pathways are sensitive to both the climate model uncertainty and natural variability of the climate system, and the degree of sensitivity differs among countries. Finally, the negative impacts of climate change could be moderated by implementing adaptations steadily according to forecasts of the necessary future adaptations, as compared to missing the appropriate timing to implement adaptations.

  18. Strengthening Economic Skills and Climate Change Adaptive ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    It builds on the results obtained from the project, Strengthening the Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change in Rural Bénin (104142). ... un développement intégré durable (IDID), to enhance the adaptive capacity of local communities in order to mitigate the negative effects of climate change on food security and rural poverty.

  19. Monitoring adaptive genetic responses to environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael M. Hansen; Isabelle Olivieri; Donald M. Waller; Einar E. Nielsen; F. W. Allendorf; M. K. Schwartz; C. S. Baker; D. P. Gregovich; J. A. Jackson; K. C. Kendall; L. Laikre; K. McKelvey; M. C. Neel; N. Ryman; R. Short Bull; J. B. Stetz; D. A. Tallmon; C. D. Vojta; R. S. Waples

    2012-01-01

    Widespread environmental changes including climate change, selective harvesting and landscape alterations now greatly affect selection regimes for most organisms. How animals and plants can adapt to these altered environments via contemporary evolution is thus of strong interest. We discuss how to use genetic monitoring to study adaptive responses via repeated analysis...

  20. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change : Agricultural ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    10 juin 2007 ... Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change : Agricultural Systems in Madagascar. Madagascar has completed its national plan of action for adapting to climate change. Several actors and decision-makers - agricultural policymakers, regional rural development managers, emergency services ...

  1. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change : Agricultural ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    ... on the factors affecting vulnerability to climate change on the whole island of Madagascar;; to better understand existing and possible adaptation strategies;; to explore various intervention strategies under different scenarios; and; to reinforce national capacity in analysis of climate change vulnerability and adaptation.

  2. A modelling framework to assess climate change and adaptation impact on heterogeneous crop-livestock farming communities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Descheemaeker, K.K.E.; Masikati, P.; Homann-Kee Tui, S.; Chibwana, G.A.; Crespo, O.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change will impact the productivity of maize-based crop-livestock systems and the livelihoods of smallholders depending on them in semi-arid Zimbabwe. The large diversity in resource endowment and production objectives in rural communities differentially influences this impact and the

  3. Monitoring adaptive genetic responses to environmental change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, M.M.; Olivieri, I.; Waller, D.M.

    2012-01-01

    Widespread environmental changes including climate change, selective harvesting and landscape alterations now greatly affect selection regimes for most organisms. How animals and plants can adapt to these altered environments via contemporary evolution is thus of strong interest. We discuss how...... for selection and establishing clear links between genetic and environmental change. We then review a few exemplary studies that explore adaptive responses to climate change in Drosophila, selective responses to hunting and fishing, and contemporary evolution in Daphnia using resurrected resting eggs. We...

  4. LandCaRe DSS--an interactive decision support system for climate change impact assessment and the analysis of potential agricultural land use adaptation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenkel, Karl-Otto; Berg, Michael; Mirschel, Wilfried; Wieland, Ralf; Nendel, Claas; Köstner, Barbara

    2013-09-01

    Decision support to develop viable climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture and regional land use management encompasses a wide range of options and issues. Up to now, only a few suitable tools and methods have existed for farmers and regional stakeholders that support the process of decision-making in this field. The interactive model-based spatial information and decision support system LandCaRe DSS attempts to close the existing methodical gap. This system supports interactive spatial scenario simulations, multi-ensemble and multi-model simulations at the regional scale, as well as the complex impact assessment of potential land use adaptation strategies at the local scale. The system is connected to a local geo-database and via the internet to a climate data server. LandCaRe DSS uses a multitude of scale-specific ecological impact models, which are linked in various ways. At the local scale (farm scale), biophysical models are directly coupled with a farm economy calculator. New or alternative simulation models can easily be added, thanks to the innovative architecture and design of the DSS. Scenario simulations can be conducted with a reasonable amount of effort. The interactive LandCaRe DSS prototype also offers a variety of data analysis and visualisation tools, a help system for users and a farmer information system for climate adaptation in agriculture. This paper presents the theoretical background, the conceptual framework, and the structure and methodology behind LandCaRe DSS. Scenario studies at the regional and local scale for the two Eastern German regions of Uckermark (dry lowlands, 2600 km(2)) and Weißeritz (humid mountain area, 400 km(2)) were conducted in close cooperation with stakeholders to test the functionality of the DSS prototype. The system is gradually being transformed into a web version (http://www.landcare-dss.de) to ensure the broadest possible distribution of LandCaRe DSS to the public. The system will be continuously

  5. Europe adapts to climate change: comparing national adaptation strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biesbroek, G.R.; Swart, R.J.; Carter, T.R.; Cowan, C.; Henrichs, T.; Mela, H.; Morcecroft, M.D.; Rey, D.

    2010-01-01

    For the last two decades, European climate policy has focused almost exclusively on mitigation of climate change. It was only well after the turn of the century, with impacts of climate change increasingly being observed, that adaptation was added to the policy agenda and EU Member States started to

  6. Farmer responses to multiple stresses in the face of global change: Assessing five case studies to enhance adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholas, K. A.; Feola, G.; Lerner, A. M.; Jain, M.; Montefrio, M.

    2013-12-01

    The global challenge of sustaining agricultural livelihoods and yields in the face of growing populations and increasing climate change is the topic of intense research. The role of on-the-ground decision-making by individual farmers actually producing food, fuel, and fiber is often studied in individual cases to determine its environmental, economic, and social effects. However, there are few efforts to link across studies in a way that provides opportunities to better understand empirical farmer behavior, design effective policies, and be able to aggregate from case studies to a broader scale. Here we synthesize existing literature to identify four general factors affecting farmer decision-making: local technical and socio-cultural contexts; actors and institutions involved in decision-making; multiple stressors at broader scales; and the temporal gradient of decision-making. We use these factors to compare five cases that illustrate agricultural decision-making and its impacts: cotton and castor farming in Gujarat, India; swidden cultivation of upland rice in the Philippines; potato cultivation in Andean Colombia; winegrowing in Northern California; and maize production in peri-urban central Mexico. These cases span a geographic and economic range of production systems, but we find that we are able to make valid comparisons and draw lessons common across all cases by using the four factors as an organizing principle. We also find that our understanding of why farmers make the decisions they do changes if we neglect to examine even one of the four general factors guiding decision-making. This suggests that these four factors are important to understanding farmer decision-making, and can be used to guide the design and interpretation of future studies, as well as be the subject of further research in and of themselves to promote an agricultural system that is resilient to climate and other global environmental changes.

  7. Climate change adaptation strategies and mitigation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Fernández, Cristina

    2015-04-01

    The pace of climate change and the consequent warming of the Earth's surface is increasing vulnerability and decreasing adaptive capacity. Achieving a successful adaptation depends on the development of technology, institutional organization, financing availability and the exchange of information. Populations living in arid and semi-arid zones, low-lying coastal areas, land with water shortages or at risk of overflow or small islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Due to increasing population density in sensitive areas, some regions have become more vulnerable to events such as storms, floods and droughts, like the river basins and coastal plains. Human activities have fragmented and increased the vulnerability of ecosystems, which limit both, their natural adaptation and the effectiveness of the measures adopted. Adaptation means to carry out the necessary modifications for society to adapt to new climatic conditions in order to reduce their vulnerability to climate change. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) and to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or face the consequences. Adaptation reduces the adverse impacts of climate change and enhance beneficial impacts, but will not prevent substantial cost that are produced by all damages. The performances require adaptation actions. These are defined and implemented at national, regional or local levels since many of the impacts and vulnerabilities depend on the particular economic, geographic and social circumstances of each country or region. We will present some adaptation strategies at national and local level and revise some cases of its implementation in several vulnerable areas. However, adaptation to climate change must be closely related to mitigation policies because the degree of change planned in different climatic variables is a function of the concentration levels that are achieved

  8. Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change · Climate Change: Generic Implications for Agriculture · Controlled environment facilities at IARI used for evaluating model performance in future climate change scenarios · Slide 4 · Slide 5 · Global studies indicate considerable impact of climate change in tropics.

  9. Adaptive Assessments Using Open Specifications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leon, Hector Barbosa; Garcia-Penalvo, Francisco J.; Rodriguez-Conde, Maria Jose; Morales, Erla M.; de Pablos, Patricia Ordonez

    2012-01-01

    Evaluation is a key element in formal education processes; it must be constructed in a way that the item questions within help students understand by adapting them to the learning style as well. The focus of the present research work specifically in the convenience to adapt an associated multimedia material in each single question besides the…

  10. Climate Change Adaptation Practices in Various Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanik, A.; Tekten, D.

    2017-08-01

    The paper will be a review work on the recent strategies of EU in general, and will underline the inspected sectoral based adaptation practices and action plans of 7 countries; namely Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Denmark, USA and Kenya from Africa continent. Although every countries’ action plan have some similarities on sectoral analysis, each country in accordance with the specific nature of the problem seems to create its own sectoral analysis. Within this context, green and white documents of EU adaptation to climate change, EU strategy on climate change, EU targets of 2020 on climate change and EU adaptation support tools are investigated.

  11. Participatory action research advances climate change adaptation ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2012-05-01

    May 1, 2012 ... CCAA researchers also collaborated to produce a series of fact sheets on topics related to agricultural adaptation: Using seasonal climate forecasting · Soil fertility management · A series of country case studies. The Climate Change Adaptation in Africa research and capacity development program ran from ...

  12. Questioning complacency: climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Karen; Eriksen, Siri; Sygna, Linda; Naess, Lars Otto

    2006-03-01

    Most European assessments of climate change impacts have been carried out on sectors and ecosystems, providing a narrow understanding of what climate change really means for society. Furthermore, the main focus has been on technological adaptations, with less attention paid to the process of climate change adaptation. In this article, we present and analyze findings from recent studies on climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway, with the aim of identifying the wider social impacts of climate change. Three main lessons can be drawn. First, the potential thresholds and indirect effects may be more important than the direct, sectoral effects. Second, highly sensitive sectors, regions, and communities combine with differential social vulnerability to create both winners and losers. Third, high national levels of adaptive capacity mask the barriers and constraints to adaptation, particularly among those who are most vulnerable to climate change. Based on these results, we question complacency in Norway and other European countries regarding climate change impacts and adaptation. We argue that greater attention needs to be placed on the social context of climate change impacts and on the processes shaping vulnerability and adaptation.

  13. Learning for Climate Change Adaptation among Selected ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This research was aimed at surveying perceptions of climate change and educational themes that would be contextually relevant for climate change adaptation. It locates within the United Nations' Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization's (UNESCO's) Balaclava recommendations on Climate Change Education for ...

  14. Research for climate change adaptation

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Corey Piccioni

    Climate change is being felt globally, particularly in developing countries, with impacts in the form of more frequent and severe flooding, extreme weather, desertification, and rising sea levels, amongst others. These impacts are ulti- mately affecting water availability, food security, and livelihoods for millions of vulnerable ...

  15. Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in OECD Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Stephanie E; Biesbroek, Robbert; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Ford, James D; Parker, Stephen; Fleury, Manon D

    2016-09-07

    Climate change is a major challenge facing public health. National governments play a key role in public health adaptation to climate change, but there are competing views on what responsibilities and obligations this will-or should-include in different nations. This study aims to: (1) examine how national-level public health adaptation is occurring in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries; (2) examine the roles national governments are taking in public health adaptation; and (3) critically appraise three key governance dimensions of national-level health adaptation-cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning-and identify practical examples suited to different contexts. We systematically reviewed publicly available public health adaptation to climate change documents and webpages by national governments in ten OECD countries using systematic web searches, assessment of self-reporting, and content analysis. Our findings suggest national governments are primarily addressing infectious disease and heat-related risks posed by climate change, typically emphasizing capacity building or information-based groundwork initiatives. We find national governments are taking a variety of approaches to public health adaptation to climate change that do not follow expected convergence and divergence by governance structure. We discuss practical options for incorporating cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning into a variety of contexts and identify leaders national governments can look to to inform their public health adaptation planning. Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement and subsequent increased momentum for adaptation, research tracking adaptation is needed to define what health adaptation looks like in practice, reveal insights that can be taken up across states and sectors, and ensure policy orientated learning.

  16. Climate change impacts and adaptations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn

    2015-01-01

    , the inseparability of the development and climate agendas, and the rate of assimilation of climate and development information in key institutions. They are drawn from the Development Under Climate Change (DUCC) project carried out by UNU-WIDER of which the countries of the Greater Zambeze Valley formed a part......In this article, we assert that developing countries are much better prepared to undertake negotiations at the Conference of the Parties in Paris (CoP21) as compared to CoP15 in Copenhagen. An important element of this is the accumulation of knowledge with respect to the implications of climate...... change and the ongoing internalization thereof by key institutions in developing countries. The articles in this special issue set forth a set of technical contributions to this improved understanding. We also summarize five major lessons related to uncertainty, extreme events, timing of impacts...

  17. A Meta-Analysis of Urban Climate Change Adaptation ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The concentration of people, infrastructure, and ecosystem services in urban areas make them prime sites for climate change adaptation. While advances have been made in developing frameworks for adaptation planning and identifying both real and potential barriers to action, empirical work evaluating urban adaptation planning processes has been relatively piecemeal. Existing assessments of current experience with urban adaptation provide necessarily broad generalizations based on the available peer-reviewed literature. This paper uses a meta-analysis of U.S. cities’ current experience with urban adaptation planning drawing from 54 sources that include peer-reviewed literature, government reports, white papers, and reports published by non-governmental organizations. The analysis specifically evaluates the institutional support structures being developed for urban climate change adaptation. The results demonstrate that adaptation planning is driven by a desire to reduce vulnerability and often catalyzes new collaborations and coordination mechanisms in urban governance. As a result, building capacity for urban climate change adaptation planning requires a focus not only on city governments themselves but also on the complex horizontal and vertical networks that have arisen around such efforts. Existing adaptation planning often lacks attention to equity issues, social vulnerability, and the influence of non-climatic factors on vulnerability. Engaging city govern

  18. Migration and adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tacoli, Cecilia

    2007-11-15

    Climate change is having an undeniable impact on many human systems and behaviours, including population mobility. This is hardly surprising: migration is an adaptive response to changes in people's circumstances. Yet environmental factors are not the whole story. Socio-economic, political and cultural factors are also closely linked to population movement, and heavily influence vulnerability to both direct and indirect impacts of climate change. Shifts in migration patterns are a strategy of adaptation to complex transformations, and recognising and accommodating this is key in policies for sustainable development and poverty reduction in the context of growing environmental stress.

  19. Adapting to climate change in The Netherlands: an inventory of climate adaptation options and ranking of alternatives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruin, de K.; Dellink, R.B.; Ruijs, A.J.W.; Bolwidt, L.; Buuren, van A.; Graveland, J.; Groot, de R.S.; Kuikman, P.J.; Reinhard, A.J.; Rötter, R.P.; Tassone, V.C.; Verhagen, A.; Ierland, van E.C.

    2009-01-01

    In many countries around the world impacts of climate change are assessed and adaptation options identified. We describe an approach for a qualitative and quantitative assessment of adaptation options to respond to climate change in the Netherlands. The study introduces an inventory and ranking of

  20. Adapting to climate change in The Netherlands: an inventory of climate adaptation options and ranking of alternatives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. de Bruin (Kelly); R.B. Dellink (Rob); A. Ruijs (Arjan); L. Bolwidt; M.W. van Buuren (Arwin); J. Graveland (Jaap); R.S. de Groot; P.J. Kuikman; S. Reinhard; R.P. Roetter (Reimund); V.C. Tassone (Valentina); A.P. Verhagen (Arianne); E.C. van Ierland (Ekko)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractIn many countries around the world impacts of climate change are assessed and adaptation options identified. We describe an approach for a qualitative and quantitative assessment of adaptation options to respond to climate change in the Netherlands. The study introduces an inventory and

  1. Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Enriquez-de-Salamanca, Alvaro; Diaz Sierra, R.; Martin-Aranda, Rosa; Ferreira Dos Santos, M.J.

    Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship

  2. Climate change adaptation | IDRC - International Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2011-01-07

    Jan 7, 2011 ... IDRC was funding research on human adaptation to climate change and variability long before the term “global warming” began to dominate the world's headlines. This is because climate change is not just an environmental problem: it also threatens development. The most vulnerable populations are ...

  3. Helping your woodland adapt to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tracey Saxby; Marcus Griswold; Caroline Wicks

    2013-01-01

    Your woods are always changing and adapting as they grow and mature, or regrow after agricultural abandonment, natural disturbances, or harvesting activities. Events like storms, droughts, insect and disease outbreaks, or other stressors can damage trees or slow their growth. A changing climate may make your woods more susceptible to the problems these events can cause...

  4. Tajikistan : Key Priorities for Climate Change Adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Barbone, Luca; Reva, Anna; Zaidi, Salman

    2010-01-01

    How should Tajikistan adapt to ongoing and future climate change, in particular given the many pressing development challenges it currently faces? The paper argues that for developing countries like Tajikistan, faster economic and social development is the best possible defense against climate change. It presents some key findings from a recent nationally representative household survey to...

  5. Climate Change Floodplains and California Adaption Possibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, M. L.

    2008-12-01

    California is currently revisiting its floodplain management practices. Part of this effort will include the development of adaptation strategies for incorporating climate change into floodplain protection levels. This presentation will review expected impacts of climate change on floodplains and will examine how those impacts could be incorporated into floodplain protection estimates and the planning process.

  6. Climate Change Adaptation in Africa | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    African Governments have already acknowledged the urgent need to address climate change through regional initiatives. This grant will support the establishment of a program on vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Africa. The program will be directed by an advisory board consisting of donor representatives ...

  7. Adaptation to climate change by organizations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berkhout, F.G.H.

    2012-01-01

    Organizations will be central actors in societal adaptation to climate variability and change. But highly simplified assumptions are often made about the response of organizations to the stimulus of perceived or experienced climate change. This paper reviews recent literature, arguing that three

  8. Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in OECD Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Stephanie E.; Biesbroek, Robbert; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Ford, James D.; Parker, Stephen; Fleury, Manon D.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a major challenge facing public health. National governments play a key role in public health adaptation to climate change, but there are competing views on what responsibilities and obligations this will—or should—include in different nations. This study aims to: (1) examine how national-level public health adaptation is occurring in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries; (2) examine the roles national governments are taking in public health adaptation; and (3) critically appraise three key governance dimensions of national-level health adaptation—cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning—and identify practical examples suited to different contexts. We systematically reviewed publicly available public health adaptation to climate change documents and webpages by national governments in ten OECD countries using systematic web searches, assessment of self-reporting, and content analysis. Our findings suggest national governments are primarily addressing infectious disease and heat-related risks posed by climate change, typically emphasizing capacity building or information-based groundwork initiatives. We find national governments are taking a variety of approaches to public health adaptation to climate change that do not follow expected convergence and divergence by governance structure. We discuss practical options for incorporating cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning into a variety of contexts and identify leaders national governments can look to to inform their public health adaptation planning. Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement and subsequent increased momentum for adaptation, research tracking adaptation is needed to define what health adaptation looks like in practice, reveal insights that can be taken up across states and sectors, and ensure policy orientated learning. PMID:27618074

  9. Challenging barriers in the governance of climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biesbroek, G.R.

    2014-01-01

    Adaptation is considered to be a necessary response to manage the unavoidable impacts of climate change. Even though societies have always adapted to socioecological changes, climate change is expected to require additional adaptation efforts. Examples from policy practice demonstrate that

  10. Adaptation to climate change in school practices

    OpenAIRE

    Roman Andres

    2016-01-01

    This article seems at the outset to be a protest at the complexity of the climatic system and the education system, but in fact the author describes the logic of construction of educational projects aimed at adaptation to climate change. He provides examples of implemented projects, with an emphasis on the practical activities of pupils focusing on the implementation of climate adaptation measures in their lives. In other words: actions, not nice presentations solve real life problems.

  11. Phytoplankton adapt to changing ocean environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, Andrew J; Finkel, Zoe V; Müller-Karger, Frank E; Troccoli Ghinaglia, Luis

    2015-05-05

    Model projections indicate that climate change may dramatically restructure phytoplankton communities, with cascading consequences for marine food webs. It is currently not known whether evolutionary change is likely to be able to keep pace with the rate of climate change. For simplicity, and in the absence of evidence to the contrary, most model projections assume species have fixed environmental preferences and will not adapt to changing environmental conditions on the century scale. Using 15 y of observations from Station CARIACO (Carbon Retention in a Colored Ocean), we show that most of the dominant species from a marine phytoplankton community were able to adapt their realized niches to track average increases in water temperature and irradiance, but the majority of species exhibited a fixed niche for nitrate. We do not know the extent of this adaptive capacity, so we cannot conclude that phytoplankton will be able to adapt to the changes anticipated over the next century, but community ecosystem models can no longer assume that phytoplankton cannot adapt.

  12. Change Agents & Impact Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kørnøv, Lone; Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Hansen, Anne Merrild

    2010-01-01

    One of the challenges facing impact assessment is finding ways to work in research and practice that allow appropriate action and critical interrogation og action to enable and support sustainable change.......One of the challenges facing impact assessment is finding ways to work in research and practice that allow appropriate action and critical interrogation og action to enable and support sustainable change....

  13. Water, Energy, and Ecosystems: A Case Study of California's Sierra Nevada to Assess Vulnerability to Climate Change and Opportunities for Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viers, J. H.; Null, S.; Ligare, S. T.; Rheinheimer, D. E.; Williams, J. N.

    2010-12-01

    of water, such as substantial reductions in whitewater kayaking opportunities in unregulated rivers during summer months. With respect to ecohydrological conditions in the Sierra Nevada, stream water temperatures are perhaps the most important, as this water quality parameter not only helps govern ecosystem productivity, but can also represent sub-lethal and lethal conditions when biotic thresholds are surpassed. To better understand vulnerability of ecosystems, we contrast unimpaired and regulated simulations of hydrology and concomitant water temperatures to isolate the effects of ecosystem management, and evaluate departures from baseline conditions. The net result of modeled simulations, when viewed in the context of vulnerability, is a number of thematic metrics that can be evaluated within a spatiotemporal framework to assess opportunities for science-based adaptive resource management. We explore these opportunities for institutional adaptation by reviewing policy options that address inefficiencies and conflicts in water management with a specific focus on the relicensing of dams, environmental flow requirements, and management of the water, energy, and ecosystem nexus.

  14. Understanding Controversies in Urban Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baron, Nina; Petersen, Lars Kjerulf

    2015-01-01

    This article explores the controversies that exist in urban climate change adaptation and how these controversies influence the role of homeowners in urban adaptation planning. A concrete SUDS project in a housing cooperative in Copenhagen has been used as a case study thereby investigating...... the multiple understandings “Sustainable Urban Drainages System’s” (SUDS). Several different perspectives are identified with regard to what are and what will become the main climate problems in the urban environment as well as what are considered to be the best responses to these problems. Building...... on the actor-network inspired theory of “urban green assemblages” we argue that at least three different assemblages can be identified in urban climate change adaptation. Each assemblage frames problems and responses differently, and thereby assigns different types of roles to homeowners. As climate change...

  15. Urban drainage design and climate change adaptation decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qianqian Zhou

    2012-10-15

    The emphasis of this PhD thesis is flood protection in the context of pluvial flooding by investigating new principles and approaches for assessment of urban drainage adaptation measures under climate change impacts. The thesis describes a new framework for design and analysis of urban drainage that accurately assesses hazards and vulnerabilities of urban areas and quantifies the present and future risks based on projections of climate change and city development. Furthermore, this framework can be utilized to identify cost-effective measures that can reduce the overall flood risk to an acceptable level considering both costs and benefits of adaptation. The framework is mainly based on a utilitarian approach that studies urban drainage adaptation solutions from a socio-economic point of view. The methodologies involve the state-of-the-art flood inundation modelling, risk assessment tools, socio-economic analysis tools, city planning, and uncertainty analysis. The thesis has explored several limitations of the current design practice of urban drainage. To further supplement and develop the common practice, a systemic and integrated framework is proposed by incorporating three research areas: (i) risk-based economic approaches for assessment of climate adaptation design, (ii) uncertainty analysis of climate adaptation assessment and (iii) reframing the assessment approaches by incorporating additional benefits and costs of adaptation alternatives. To strategically provide a functional performance of urban drainage systems, a risk-based economic approach is developed to take into account the impacts of all probable floods in terms of their probabilities and consequences (e.g. extents of floods, costing of damage). It is found that this approach contributes to a better understanding of the contributions of different return periods/flood events to the overall risk under both current and future climatic conditions and therefore can be used as guidance for further

  16. The Adaptation Policy Paradox: the Implementation Deficit of Policies Framed as Climate Change Adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johann Dupuis

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The implementation of adaptation policies suffers from barriers and limits; even though adaptation is now set on the political agendas of developed and developing countries, surprisingly few examples of concrete policy realizations are found in comparative assessments. We investigate how the framings of adaptation as a policy problem can relate to tractability issues in implementation. We distinguish three framings of adaptation: climate change adaptation (CCA, climate variability adaptation (CVA, and vulnerability-centered adaptation (VCA that imply conflicting interpretations of the collective problem to be solved and the goals to be attained through policy solutions. Through the methodology of comparative case studies, we conduct an empirical analysis of three implementation processes in India and Switzerland, and examine how adaptation framings translate into formal policy design and concrete policy realizations. We find that, regardless of the adaptive capacity of the country where implementation takes place, the CCA framing meets more tractability issues than the VCA framing. Therefore, we discuss the paradox that the innovative and additional CCA types of policies, advocated by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, are more likely to face a deficit in implementation according to our analysis.

  17. Vulnerability assessment and risk level of ecosystem services for climate change impacts and adaptation in the High-Atlas mountain of Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Messouli, Mohammed; Bounoua, Lahouari; Babqiqi, Abdelaziz; Ben Salem, Abdelkrim; Yacoubi-Khebiza, Mohammed

    2010-05-01

    Moroccan mountain biomes are considered endangered due to climate change that affects directly or indirectly different key features (biodiversity, snow cover, run-off processes, and water availability). The present article describes the strategy for achieving collaboration between natural and social scientists, stakeholders, decision-makers, and other societal groups, in order to carry out an integrated assessment of climate change in the High-Atlas Mountains of Morocco, with an emphasis on vulnerability and adaptation. We will use a robust statistical technique to dynamically downscale outputs from the IPCC climates models to the regional study area. Statistical downscaling provides a powerful method for deriving local-to-regional scale information on climate variables from large-scale climate model outputs. The SDSM will be used to produce the high resolution climate change scenarios from climate model outputs at low resolution. These data will be combined with socio-economic attributes such as the amount of water used for irrigation of agricultural lands, agricultural practices and phenology, cost of water delivery and non-market values of produced goods and services. This study, also analyzed spatial and temporal in land use/land cover changes (LUCC) in a typical watershed covering an area of 203 km2 by comparing classified satellite images from 1976, 1989 and 2000 coupled by GIS analyses and also investigated changes in the shape of land use patches over the period. The GIS-platform, which compiles gridded spatial and temporal information of environmental, socio-economic and biophysical data is used to map vulnerability assessment and risk levels over a wide region of Southern High-Atlas. For each scenario, we will derive and analyze near future (10-15 years) key climate indicators strongly related to sustainable management of ecosystem goods and services. Forest cover declined at an average rate of 0.35 ha per year due to timber extraction, cultivation

  18. Adaptively detecting changes in Autonomic Grid Computing

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Xiangliang

    2010-10-01

    Detecting the changes is the common issue in many application fields due to the non-stationary distribution of the applicative data, e.g., sensor network signals, web logs and gridrunning logs. Toward Autonomic Grid Computing, adaptively detecting the changes in a grid system can help to alarm the anomalies, clean the noises, and report the new patterns. In this paper, we proposed an approach of self-adaptive change detection based on the Page-Hinkley statistic test. It handles the non-stationary distribution without the assumption of data distribution and the empirical setting of parameters. We validate the approach on the EGEE streaming jobs, and report its better performance on achieving higher accuracy comparing to the other change detection methods. Meanwhile this change detection process could help to discover the device fault which was not claimed in the system logs. © 2010 IEEE.

  19. European information on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jol, A.; Isoard, S.

    2010-09-01

    development in 2010 and is likely to manage the system after 2011. The European Commission in its Communication in 2009 on disaster risk prevention also calls for improving and better sharing of data on disasters, disaster risk mapping and disaster risk management, in the context of the EU civil protection mechanism. Such information might also be linked to the planned EU Clearinghouse on climate change adaptation. The activities of EEA on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation (including disaster risk reduction) include indicators of the impacts of climate change; a regularly updated overview of national assessments and adaptation plans on the EEA web site and specific focused reports, e.g. on adaptation to the challenges of changing water resources in the Alps (2009) and on analysis of past trends in natural disasters (due in 2010) and regular expert meetings and workshops with EEA member countries. The ECAC presentation will include the latest developments in the EU Clearinghouse on adaptation and progress in relevant EEA activities.

  20. Financing urban adaptation tot climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Swart, R.J.; Georgi, B.; Romanovska, L.; Dworak, T.; Berglund, M.; Gossum, van H.; Water, van de Sandra; Bosch, P.; Rovers, V.; Eichler, L.

    2017-01-01

    Despite the global signals, and European and national
    efforts to unlock climate finance, meeting the costs
    of adaptation measures for climate change is a
    major challenge for relevant authorities and private
    stakeholders. However, municipalities across Europe
    — cities, towns and

  1. climate changes and farmers' endogenous adaptation strategies

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prof. Adipala Ekwamu

    Adaptation to climate changes. In Benin, Aho. (2006) reported that farmers are developing both curative and preventive practices to face climate risks in their region. Our choice to explore farmers own new land and crop management practices is motivated by a self innovation and sustainability concern which is key in such ...

  2. Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into Development ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Apparently, the need to mainstream climate change adaptation into development planning at the national and sub-national levels cannot be ignored. In this vein, using the qualitative research approach involving the use of in-depth interviews, focus group discussions and content analysis of district development plans and ...

  3. Climate change adaptation in the water sector

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ludwig, Fulco

    2009-01-01

    ... and Peter Droogers 87 8 Climate-proofing Jeroen Veraart and Marloes Bakker 1093388 EARTH CC in Water Sector 6/2/09 1:14 PM Page vi vi Climate Change Adaptation in the Water Sector PART II: CASE S...

  4. Climate Change Adaptation Constraints among Smallholder ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The mean ranks of the constraints significantly differ from one another with the three topmost constraints being unreliable water source, lack of information on climate change and limited income. But for crop diversification, poor extension services and lack of credit are factors that cut across all the identified adaptation ...

  5. Adapting to Climate Change through Improved Watershed ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Adapting to Climate Change through Improved Watershed Management and Payment for Environmental Services in Morocco's Tensift Basin ... Women in the developing world continue to face obstacles that limit their ability to establish careers and become leaders in the fields of science, technology, engineering, and ...

  6. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change : Agricultural ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    10 juin 2007 ... to facilitate a dialogue between decision-makers and researchers at the national, regional and local level;; to produce spatial information on the factors affecting vulnerability to climate change on the whole island of Madagascar;; to better understand existing and possible adaptation strategies;; to explore ...

  7. Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Tomé, Margarida; Hanewinkel, Marc

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01) to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008) to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.

  8. Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristina Blennow

    Full Text Available Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01 to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03 for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008 to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02. We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.

  9. Impact of African traditional worldviews on climate change adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanganyado, Edmond; Teta, Charles; Masiri, Busani

    2018-03-01

    Recent studies show cultural worldviews are a key determinant of environmental risk perceptions; thus, they could influence climate change adaptation strategies. African traditional worldviews encourage harmony between humans and the environment through a complex metaphysical belief system transmitted through folklore, taboos, and traditional knowledge. However, African traditional worldviews hold a belief in traditional gods that was shown to have a low connectedness to nature and a low willingness to change. In Makueni District, Kenya, 45% of agropastoralists surveyed believed drought was god's plan and could not be changed. In contrast, traditional knowledge, which is shaped by African traditional worldviews, is often used to frame adaptive strategies such as migration, changing modes of production, and planting different crop varieties. Furthermore, traditional knowledge has been used as a complement to science in areas where meteorological data was unavailable. However, the role of African traditional worldviews on climate change adaption remains understudied. Hence, there is a need to systematically establish the influence of African traditional worldviews on climate change risk perception, development of adaptive strategies, and policy formulation and implementation. In this commentary, we discuss the potential impacts of African traditional worldviews on climate change adaptation. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:189-193. © 2018 SETAC. © 2018 SETAC.

  10. Are conservation organizations configured for effective adaptation to global change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armsworth, Paul R.; Larson, Eric R.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Sax, Dov F.; Simonin, Paul W.; Blossey, Bernd; Green, Nancy; Lester, Liza; Klein, Mary L.; Ricketts, Taylor H.; Runge, Michael C.; Shaw, M. Rebecca

    2015-01-01

    Conservation organizations must adapt to respond to the ecological impacts of global change. Numerous changes to conservation actions (eg facilitated ecological transitions, managed relocations, or increased corridor development) have been recommended, but some institutional restructuring within organizations may also be needed. Here we discuss the capacity of conservation organizations to adapt to changing environmental conditions, focusing primarily on public agencies and nonprofits active in land protection and management in the US. After first reviewing how these organizations anticipate and detect impacts affecting target species and ecosystems, we then discuss whether they are sufficiently flexible to prepare and respond by reallocating funding, staff, or other resources. We raise new hypotheses about how the configuration of different organizations enables them to protect particular conservation targets and manage for particular biophysical changes that require coordinated management actions over different spatial and temporal scales. Finally, we provide a discussion resource to help conservation organizations assess their capacity to adapt.

  11. Adaptation of trees, forests and forestry to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel J. Chmura; Glenn T. Howe; Paul D. Anderson; Bradley J. St Clair

    2010-01-01

    Ongoing climate change will likely expose trees and forests to new stresses and disturbances during this century. Trees naturally adapt to changes in climate, but their natural adaptive ability may be compromised by the rapid changes projected for this century. In the broad sense, adaptation to climate change also includes the purposeful adaptation of human systems,...

  12. Adaptation in climate change hotspots: Change under way in Africa ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2015-01-26

    Jan 26, 2015 ... The Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA) aims to build the resilience of poor people to climate change in three climate change “hot spots”: basins, deltas, and semi-arid regions. In each of these areas, large numbers of poor people depend on climate sensitive sectors for ...

  13. Technologies for climate change adaptation. Coastal erosion and flooding

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, X. (ed.) (UNEP Risoe Centre, Roskilde (Denmark)); Linham, M.M.; Nicholls, R.J. (Univ. of Southampton (United Kingdom))

    2010-11-15

    This guidebook is intended to be a practical tool for use by coastal zone managers in developing countries. The aim is to provide best practice guidance and assist these managers in assessing their evolving adaptation needs and help them to prepare action plans for adapting to climate change in the coastal zone. The guidebook first reviews the main physical and societal impacts of climate change in the coastal zone. It then considers the process of adaptation to erosion and flooding/inundation hazards where major impacts may occur and a range of adaptation technologies are best developed. Thirteen of these adaptation technologies are presented in this guide, representing examples of the protect, accommodate or (planned) retreat approaches to adaptation. While this does not represent an exhaustive list of the adaptation technologies that are available, these technologies are among those most widely used/considered in the coastal zone today. All the technologies considered are relevant to climate change adaptation and collectively, more widespread application is expected in the future under climate change and rising sea levels. For each adaptation technology the following issues are addressed: (1) definition and description; (2) technical advantages and disadvantages; (3) institutional and organisational requirements; (4) potential costs and opportunities; and (5) barriers to implementation; followed by a case study example. We have endeavoured to include developing country examples wherever possible, but as there is less activity and less documentation of developing world projects and some technologies are barely used in the developing world, this is not always possible. Knowledge and capacity building requirements and monitoring technologies are considered and contrasted across all 13 adaptation technologies. Finally, more detailed sources are indicated. Each adaptation technology has widely varying advantages and disadvantages. As such, selection of measures

  14. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  15. An adaptive strategy to climate change

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    rsamir

    September 2008, Montpellier, France. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2007. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change. Switzerland. Mantovani, F., 2008. Climate Change and Water in the Arab World. The World Bank, Middle East and North Africa RegionSustainable Development Group.

  16. Gender and climate change adaptation in agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Øvstegård, Rebekka

    2010-01-01

    Gender analysis is an important component of the Climarice project in order to better understand the ways in which women and men are differently affected by climate change and how they are adapting. During the current year, a preliminary analysis has been carried out on gender issues. This will be followed by a detailed study in 2011 in selected areas in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. The expected outputs will provide more detailed analysis on gender differences and a better understanding of ...

  17. Geochemical risk assessment of a case study of climate change adaptation policy: the managed realignment of an island in the Gironde Estuary (SW France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanovsky, Anastasia; Coynel, Alexandra; Kessaci, Kahina; Kervella, Stéphane; Curti, Cécile; Sottolichio, Aldo; Blanc, Gérard

    2014-05-01

    winter submersion events the studied soils would act as Cd sinks, adsorption being the dominating process. Coupling Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) and 2 multi-parameters probes (OBS and SMATCH) during 2 spring-tide cycles allowed estimating residual metal fluxes, suggesting that under these conditions the Ile Nouvelle acts as a metal sink receiving ~5 kg of Cd, 440 kg of Cu et 480 kg of As. A bathymetry mapping of the corridor (mechanical erosion of the de-poldering area) was used to estimate the annual sedimentary and metals fluxes exported due to its erosion. Annual fluxes related to corridor erosion, compared to fluxes into the Gironde Estuary are significant for Cu and As. With climate change adaptation policies, managed realignment is becoming more common in the future. Consequently, it will be necessary before this management policy to assess the geochemical risk of the re-inundation of formerly embanked soils.

  18. Accelerating adaptation of natural resource management to address climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Molly S; McCarthy, Patrick D; Garfin, Gregg; Gori, David; Enquist, Carolyn A F

    2013-02-01

    Natural resource managers are seeking tools to help them address current and future effects of climate change. We present a model for collaborative planning aimed at identifying ways to adapt management actions to address the effects of climate change in landscapes that cross public and private jurisdictional boundaries. The Southwest Climate Change Initiative (SWCCI) piloted the Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) planning approach at workshops in 4 southwestern U.S. landscapes. This planning approach successfully increased participants' self-reported capacity to address climate change by providing them with a better understanding of potential effects and guiding the identification of solutions. The workshops fostered cross-jurisdictional and multidisciplinary dialogue on climate change through active participation of scientists and managers in assessing climate change effects, discussing the implications of those effects for determining management goals and activities, and cultivating opportunities for regional coordination on adaptation of management plans. Facilitated application of the ACT framework advanced group discussions beyond assessing effects to devising options to mitigate the effects of climate change on specific species, ecological functions, and ecosystems. Participants addressed uncertainty about future conditions by considering more than one climate-change scenario. They outlined opportunities and identified next steps for implementing several actions, and local partnerships have begun implementing actions and conducting additional planning. Continued investment in adaptation of management plans and actions to address the effects of climate change in the southwestern United States and extension of the approaches used in this project to additional landscapes are needed if biological diversity and ecosystem services are to be maintained in a rapidly changing world. © 2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

  19. Climate change adaptation: putting principles into practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ausden, Malcolm

    2014-10-01

    Carrying out wildlife conservation in a changing climate requires planning on long timescales at both a site and network level, while also having the flexibility to adapt actions at sites over short timescales in response to changing conditions and new information. The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), a land-owning wildlife conservation charity in the UK, achieves this on its nature reserves through its system of management planning. This involves setting network-wide objectives which inform the 25-year vision and 5-year conservation objectives for each site. Progress toward achieving each site's conservation objectives is reviewed annually, to identify any adjustments which might be needed to the site's management. The conservation objectives and 25-year vision of each site are reviewed every 5 years.Significant predicted [corrected] long-term impacts of climate change most frequently identified at RSPB reserves are: loss of intertidal habitat through coastal squeeze, loss of low-lying islands due to higher sea levels and coastal erosion, loss of coastal freshwater and brackish wetlands due to increased coastal flooding, and changes in the hydrology of wetlands. The main types of adaptation measures in place on RSPB reserves to address climate change-related impacts are: re-creation of intertidal habitat, re-creation and restoration of freshwater wetlands away from vulnerable coastal areas, blocking artificial drainage on peatlands, and addressing pressures on freshwater supply for lowland wet grasslands in eastern and southeastern England. Developing partnerships between organizations has been crucial in delivering large-scale adaptation projects.

  20. Creating a New Model for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation for Critical Infrastructure: The New York City Climate Change Adaptation Task Force and the NYC Panel on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Solecki, W. D.; Freed, A. M.

    2008-12-01

    The New York City Climate Change Adaptation Task Force, launched in August 2008, aims to secure the city's critical infrastructure against rising seas, higher temperatures and fluctuating water supplies projected to result from climate change. The Climate Change Adaptation Task Force is part of PlaNYC, the city's long- term sustainability plan, and is composed of over 30 city and state agencies, public authorities and companies that operate the region's roads, bridges, tunnels, mass transit, and water, sewer, energy and telecommunications systems - all with critical infrastructure identified as vulnerable. It is one of the most comprehensive adaptation efforts yet launched by an urban region. To guide the effort, Mayor Michael Bloomberg has formed the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), modeled on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Experts on the panel include climatologists, sea-level rise specialists, adaptation experts, and engineers, as well as representatives from the insurance and legal sectors. The NPCC is developing planning tools for use by the Task Force members that provide information about climate risks, adaptation and risk assessment, prioritization frameworks, and climate protection levels. The advisory panel is supplying climate change projections, helping to identify at- risk infrastructure, and assisting the Task Force in developing adaptation strategies and guidelines for design of new structures. The NPCC will also publish an assessment report in 2009 that will serve as the foundation for climate change adaptation in the New York City region, similar to the IPCC reports. Issues that the Climate Change Adaptation Task Force and the NPCC are addressing include decision- making under climate change uncertainty, effective ways for expert knowledge to be incorporated into public actions, and strategies for maintaining consistent and effective attention to long-term climate change even as municipal governments cycle

  1. Land Use Change and Global Adaptations to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roxana Juliá

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses the World Trade Model with Climate Sensitive Land (WTMCL to evaluate possible future land-use changes associated with adaptations to climate change in a globalized world. In this approach, changes in regional agricultural production, which are based on comparative advantage, define patterns of land use change in agriculture in all regions of the world. We evaluate four scenarios that combine assumptions about future increases in food demand and future changes in land endowments of different productivities associated with climatic conditions: each scenario generates distinct patterns of regional specialization in the production of agricultural commodities and associated land-use change. The analysis also projects future food availability under the simulated conditions and the direction of likely changes in prices of the major agricultural commodity groups.

  2. Climate change adaptation of the built environment – an examination

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    to assess for example a building, and anthropogenic impacts on the environment, also the impact of the environment on installations, and on the human activities must be included in the analysis and assessments. Based on observations and investigations into climate change adaptation in DK and abroad......In a Danish context, climate changes are primarily manifested in an interaction between modified wind and precipitation patterns, increasing temperature and a rising sea level. The individual factors often act together and are reinforced in interaction with already known natural and cultural...... phenomena. This is why the term 'environmental changes' might be more accurate than climate change. ‘Environmental changes’ suggests that climate changes ought to be understood as extensive environmental changes, with an impact on the built environment. Following this, it is no longer sufficient only...

  3. Psychological adaptations for assessing gossip veracity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hess, Nicole H; Hagen, Edward H

    2006-09-01

    Evolutionary models of human cooperation are increasingly emphasizing the role of reputation and the requisite truthful "gossiping" about reputation-relevant behavior. If resources were allocated among individuals according to their reputations, competition for resources via competition for "good" reputations would have created incentives for exaggerated or deceptive gossip about oneself and one's competitors in ancestral societies. Correspondingly, humans should have psychological adaptations to assess gossip veracity. Using social psychological methods, we explored cues of gossip veracity in four experiments. We found that simple reiteration increased gossip veracity, but only for those who found the gossip relatively uninteresting. Multiple sources of gossip increased its veracity, as did the independence of those sources. Information that suggested alternative, benign interpretations of gossip decreased its veracity. Competition between a gossiper and her target decreased gossip veracity. These results provide preliminary evidence for psychological adaptations for assessing gossip veracity, mechanisms that might be used to assess veracity in other domains involving social exchange of information.

  4. Adaptation to climate change--exploring the potential of locally adapted breeds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Irene

    2013-06-01

    The livestock sector and agriculture as a whole face unprecedented challenges to increase production while improving the environment. On the basis of a literature review, the paper first discusses challenges related to climate change, food security and other drivers of change in livestock production. On the basis of a recent discourse in ecology, a framework for assessing livestock species' and breeds' vulnerability to climate change is presented. The second part of the paper draws on an analysis of data on breed qualities obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization's Domestic Animal Diversity Information System (DAD-IS) to explore the range of adaptation traits present in today's breed diversity. The analysis produced a first mapping of a range of ascribed adaptation traits of national breed populations. It allowed to explore what National Coordinators understand by 'locally adapted' and other terms that describe general adaptation, to better understand the habitat, fodder and temperature range of each species and to shed light on the environments in which targeted search for adaptation traits could focus.

  5. Probabilistic adaptation in changing microbial environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katz, Yarden; Springer, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Microbes growing in animal host environments face fluctuations that have elements of both randomness and predictability. In the mammalian gut, fluctuations in nutrient levels and other physiological parameters are structured by the host's behavior, diet, health and microbiota composition. Microbial cells that can anticipate environmental fluctuations by exploiting this structure would likely gain a fitness advantage (by adapting their internal state in advance). We propose that the problem of adaptive growth in structured changing environments, such as the gut, can be viewed as probabilistic inference. We analyze environments that are "meta-changing": where there are changes in the way the environment fluctuates, governed by a mechanism unobservable to cells. We develop a dynamic Bayesian model of these environments and show that a real-time inference algorithm (particle filtering) for this model can be used as a microbial growth strategy implementable in molecular circuits. The growth strategy suggested by our model outperforms heuristic strategies, and points to a class of algorithms that could support real-time probabilistic inference in natural or synthetic cellular circuits.

  6. Urban drainage design and climate change adaptation decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian

    mitigation steps have been taken in attempts to reduce global warming, adaptation is highly advocated to supplement mitigation to cope with the unavoidable adverse impacts of flooding on vulnerable assets. The emphasis of this PhD thesis is flood protection in the context of pluvial flooding by investigating...... century, the design objectives of urban drainage systems also include elements such as environmental protection and amenity values. Among the objectives, flood protection has received much attention in recent years as a result of increasing flood hazards and risks due to climate change impacts. Although...... new principles and approaches for assessment of urban drainage adaptation measures under climate change impacts. The thesis describes a new framework for design and analysis of urban drainage that accurately assesses hazards and vulnerabilities of urban areas and quantifies the present and future...

  7. Impact assessment of climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and mustard (Brassica spp.) production and its adaptation strategies in different districts of Gujarat, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, V.; Patel, H. R.; Yadav, S. B.; Patil, D. D.

    2015-12-01

    Gujarat is the western-most state of India with a long (1600 km) sea coast on the Arabian Sea. Average annual rainfall ranges from as high as 1900 mm in the sub-humid southeast to as low as 250 mm in the arid north. There are three distinct crop seasons- rainy (June to September), winter (Oct.-Nov. through Feb.-March) and summer (Feb-March through May-June). Wheat and mustard are grown during winter seasons. The past climatic records suggested increasing trends in rainfall( 2 to 5 mm per year), maximum (0.03 to 0.05 0C per year) and minimum temperatures (0.02 to 0.05 0C per year) at most of places in Gujarat. But the minimum temperature is fould to be increasing significantly at all the locations. This affects the winter season crops viz. wheat and mustard adversely. Simulation results with DSSAT CERES-wheat model revealed that with increase in temperature by 2 0C in different months (November to February) the decrease in wheat yield is observed between 7 to 29 per cent. The impact of increase in maximum temperature during early (November) and late (February) is less (24.8 %). The climate change projections during 2071-2100 using PRECIS output suggested that there would be increase in maximum temperature by 3.2 to 5.2 0C in different districts of Gujarat over baseline period of 1961-1990 while minimum temperature is project to increase by 2.8 to 5.8 0C. Rainfall is also projected to increase by 28 to 70 per cent in different districts. The impact of climate change on wheat would be reduction in its duration by 14-20 days and the grain yield would be reduced by 20-55 per cent in different districts. In case of mustard crops the duration of crop would be reduced by 11 to 16 days and seed yield would be reduced by 32-50 per cent. In order to mitigate the ill effect of climate change, various adaptation strategies vis change in dates of sowing, change in variety, additional irrigation and fertilizer applications were simulated. Shifting of sowing dates of wheat by 15

  8. Climate change and livestock: Impacts, adaptation, and mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Melissa Rojas-Downing

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Global demand for livestock products is expected to double by 2050, mainly due to improvement in the worldwide standard of living. Meanwhile, climate change is a threat to livestock production because of the impact on quality of feed crop and forage, water availability, animal and milk production, livestock diseases, animal reproduction, and biodiversity. This study reviews the global impacts of climate change on livestock production, the contribution of livestock production to climate change, and specific climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in the livestock sector. Livestock production will be limited by climate variability as animal water consumption is expected to increase by a factor of three, demand for agricultural lands increase due to need for 70% growth in production, and food security concern since about one-third of the global cereal harvest is used for livestock feed. Meanwhile, the livestock sector contributes 14.5% of global greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, driving further climate change. Consequently, the livestock sector will be a key player in the mitigation of GHG emissions and improving global food security. Therefore, in the transition to sustainable livestock production, there is a need for: a assessments related to the use of adaptation and mitigation measures tailored to the location and livestock production system in use, and b policies that support and facilitate the implementation of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures.

  9. Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallegatte, S.

    2008-05-01

    Many decisions concerning long-lived investments need to take into account climate change. But doing so is not easy for at least two reasons. First, due to the rate of climate change, new infrastructure will have to be able to cope with a large range of changing climate conditions, which will make design more difficult and construction more expensive. Second, uncertainty in future climate makes it impossible to directly use the output of a single climate model as an input for infrastructure design, and there are good reasons to think that the needed climate information will not be available soon. Instead of optimizing based on the climate conditions projected by models, therefore, future infrastructure should be made more robust to possible changes in climate conditions. This aim implies that users of climate information must also change their practices and decision-making frameworks, for instance by adapting the uncertainty-management methods they currently apply to exchange rates or R&D outcomes. Five methods are examined: (i) introducing long-term prospective exercises; (ii) selecting "no-regret" strategies; (iii) favouring reversible options; (iv) promoting soft adaptation strategies; (v) reducing decision time horizons. I argue that adaptation strategies should not be assessed in an isolated context. In particular, it is essential to consider both negative and positive side-effects and externalities, and possible changes in future energy costs.

  10. Exploring climate change impacts and adaptation options for maize production in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia using different climate change scenarios and crop models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kassie, B.T.; Asseng, S.; Rotter, R.P.; Hengsdijk, H.; Ruane, A.C.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2015-01-01

    Exploring adaptation strategies for different climate change scenarios to support agricultural production and food security is a major concern to vulnerable regions, including Ethiopia. This study assesses the potential impacts of climate change on maize yield and explores specific adaptation

  11. Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balshi, M. S.; McGuire, A.D.; Duffy, P.; Flannigan, M.; Walsh, J.; Melillo, J.

    2009-01-01

    Fire is a common disturbance in the North American boreal forest that influences ecosystem structure and function. The temporal and spatial dynamics of fire are likely to be altered as climate continues to change. In this study, we ask the question: how will area burned in boreal North America by wildfire respond to future changes in climate? To evaluate this question, we developed temporally and spatially explicit relationships between air temperature and fuel moisture codes derived from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System to estimate annual area burned at 2.5?? (latitude ?? longitude) resolution using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) approach across Alaska and Canada. Burned area was substantially more predictable in the western portion of boreal North America than in eastern Canada. Burned area was also not very predictable in areas of substantial topographic relief and in areas along the transition between boreal forest and tundra. At the scale of Alaska and western Canada, the empirical fire models explain on the order of 82% of the variation in annual area burned for the period 1960-2002. July temperature was the most frequently occurring predictor across all models, but the fuel moisture codes for the months June through August (as a group) entered the models as the most important predictors of annual area burned. To predict changes in the temporal and spatial dynamics of fire under future climate, the empirical fire models used output from the Canadian Climate Center CGCM2 global climate model to predict annual area burned through the year 2100 across Alaska and western Canada. Relative to 1991-2000, the results suggest that average area burned per decade will double by 2041-2050 and will increase on the order of 3.5-5.5 times by the last decade of the 21st century. To improve the ability to better predict wildfire across Alaska and Canada, future research should focus on incorporating additional effects of long-term and successional

  12. Institutional constraints for adaptive capacity to climate change in Flevoland’s agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandryk, M.; Reidsma, P.; Kartikasari, K.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Arts, B.J.M.

    2015-01-01

    Institutional feasibility defined as the ability of institutions to support adaptive capacity, is an important aspect of climate adaptation, through its influence on the implementation of adaptation measures to climate change. The objective of this study is to create a framework for assessing

  13. Public Health Climate Change Adaptation Planning Using Stakeholder Feedback.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eidson, Millicent; Clancy, Kathleen A; Birkhead, Guthrie S

    2016-01-01

    Public health climate change adaptation planning is an urgent priority requiring stakeholder feedback. The 10 Essential Public Health Services can be applied to adaptation activities. To develop a state health department climate and health adaptation plan as informed by stakeholder feedback. With Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funding, the New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) implemented a 2010-2013 climate and health planning process, including 7 surveys on perceptions and adaptation priorities. New York State Department of Health program managers participated in initial (n = 41, denominator unknown) and follow-up (72.2%) needs assessments. Surveillance system information was collected from 98.1% of surveillance system managers. For adaptation prioritization surveys, participants included 75.4% of NYSDOH leaders; 60.3% of local health departments (LHDs); and 53.7% of other stakeholders representing environmental, governmental, health, community, policy, academic, and business organizations. Interviews were also completed with 38.9% of other stakeholders. In 2011 surveys, 34.1% of state health program directors believed that climate change would impact their program priorities. However, 84.6% of state health surveillance system managers provided ideas for using databases for climate and health monitoring/surveillance. In 2012 surveys, 46.5% of state health leaders agreed they had sufficient information about climate and health compared to 17.1% of LHDs (P = .0046) and 40.9% of other stakeholders (nonsignificant difference). Significantly fewer (P leaders (55.8%) and other stakeholders (68.2%). Stakeholder groups agreed on the 4 highest priority adaptation categories including core public health activities such as surveillance, coordination/collaboration, education, and policy development. Feedback from diverse stakeholders was utilized by NYSDOH to develop its Climate and Health Strategic Map in 2013. The CDC Building Resilience Against

  14. Climate Change in Myanmar: Impacts and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    see greater temperature increases compared to the southern hemisphere , with the greatest regional increases in the Arctic. In both hemispheres ...Intelligence Agency CO2 carbon dioxide CO2e carbon dioxide equivalent EIA environmental impact assessment ENSO El Nino southern oscillation EPA...xii UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WMO World Meteorological Organization 1 I. INTRODUCTION A. MAJOR RESEARCH

  15. A Meta-Analysis of Local Climate Change Adaptation Actions ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Local governments are beginning to take steps to address the consequences of climate change, such as sea level rise and heat events. However, we do not have a clear understanding of what local governments are doing -- the extent to which they expect climate change to affect their community, the types of actions they have in place to address climate change, and the resources at their disposal for implementation. Several studies have been conducted by academics, non-governmental organizations, and public agencies to assess the status of local climate change adaptation. This project collates the findings from dozens of such studies to conduct a meta-analysis of local climate change adaptation actions. The studies will be characterized along several dimensions, including (a) methods used, (b) timing and geographic scope, (c) topics covered, (d) types of adaptation actions identified, (e) implementation status, and (f) public engagement and environmental justice dimensions considered. The poster presents the project's rationale and approach and some illustrative findings from early analyses. [Note: The document being reviewed is an abstract in which a poster is being proposed. The poster will enter clearance if the abstract is accepted] The purpose of this poster is to present the research framework and approaches I am developing for my ORISE postdoctoral project, and to get feedback on early analyses.

  16. Developing a Climate Change Boundary Organization: the Montana Adaptation Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitlock, C. L.; Brooks, S.; Armstrong, T.; Bryan, B.

    2016-12-01

    Small-population large-area states like Montana are often challenged by a need to offer timely and relevant climate-change information that addresses diverse and widely dispersed stakeholder groups. In Montana, filling the gap between science and various types of decision-makers has motivated development of the first Montana Climate Assessment (MCA1), to be released in 2017 with a focus on climate-change impacts for agricultural, water and forestry sectors. To sustain and build on the MCA1 effort, we are also in the process of creating a Boundary Organization (defined by the National Academy of Sciences) called the Montana Adaptation Exchange (the Exchange); this entity will facilitate the flow of information across the boundaries between science, knowledge and implementation. In Montana, the Exchange brings scientists and practitioners together to seek solutions related to climate-change adaptation and other pressing environmental and social-economic challenges. The Montana Adaptation Exchange (1) is a collaborative partnership of members from the science and practitioner communities under a shared governance and participatory model; (2) presents research that has been vetted by the scientific community at large and represents the current state of knowledge; (3) allows for revision and expansion of assessments like the MCA; (4) communicates relevant, often technical, research and findings to a wide variety of resource managers and other stakeholders; (5) develops and maintains an extensive online database that organizes, regularly updates, and makes research data products readily available; and (6) offers an online portal and expert network of affiliated researchers and climate adaptation specialists to provide effective customer support. Boundary organizations, such as the Montana Adaptation Exchange, offer a scalable path to effectively move from "science to knowledge to action" while also allowing stakeholder needs to help inform research agendas.

  17. Impact of Climate Change Adaptation Options on Stream Flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Ashok; Bhave, Ajay; Raghuwanshi, Narendra

    2017-04-01

    Climate change, now, is taken as a reality with distressing effects on natural resources. It is an established fact that the negative impacts of climate change on freshwater will be greater with increased precipitation variability and seasonal runoff shifts on water supply and consequent impacts on water quantity and quality. Therefore, this sector necessitates identification of possible long term adaptation to changing climate and their impacts on regional water availability and demand. We assessed three stakeholder-identified adaptation options namely- construction of traditional ponds (TP), construction of check dams (CD) and increased forest cover (IFC) in Kangsabati reservoir catchment and command area, in India using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model. Four high resolution ( 25km) regional climate model outputs and their ensemble for the period 2021-2050 provide a range of future climate (2021-2050) scenarios to force the WEAP model. Calibrated (1991-2000) and validated (2001-2010) WEAP model with reasonable NSE, R2 and PBIAS statistics has been used to test the effects of identified adaptation options on unmet demand of water, runoff generation and peak stream flow. Applying one traditional ponds for every 1 km2 area reduced unmet irrigation water demand by 4.5 x 109 m3 with reduced peak water demand from 0.78 x 109 m3 to 0.7 x 109 m3 compared to non-adaptation scenario. Increasing forest cover reduces runoff by 1000 times more than check dams and reduces monsoon season peak runoff rate as well. IFC demonstrates greater ability to meet the adaptation requirement by reducing high flows by upto 8 m3/s during monsoon season and increasing reservoir inflow by upto 0.5 m3/s during the lean season. While there is uncertainty in the magnitude of change of streamflow due to the effect of adaptation options, there is greater certainty in the sign of change. Results indicate that check dams and increasing forest cover as adaptation strategies have a

  18. Evaluating and prioritizing technologies for adaptation to climate change. A hands on guidance to multi criteria analysis (MCA) and the identification and assessment of related criteria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte; Bakkegaard, Riyong Kim

    The objective of this guidance is to guide consultants, decision makers and technical experts on how to facilitate discussions for prioritizing adaptation technologies, and to support the stakeholders in identifying appropriate criteria for this analysis.......The objective of this guidance is to guide consultants, decision makers and technical experts on how to facilitate discussions for prioritizing adaptation technologies, and to support the stakeholders in identifying appropriate criteria for this analysis....

  19. Strategies for Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change in Kogi ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    adaptation to climate change should of necessity identify prevailing adaptation strategies with a view to ... agricultural adaptation to climate change are more prevalent than others and whether there is a significant ..... insurance facilities, rearing of hybrid livestock, use of fertilizers/animal dung and shelterbelts have.

  20. Adaptive strategies to climate change in Southern Malawi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chidanti-Malunga, J.

    Climate change poses a big challenge to rural livelihoods in the Shire Valley area of Southern Malawi, where communities have depended almost entirely on rain-fed agriculture for generations. The Shire Valley area comprises of low-altitude dambo areas and uplands which have been the main agricultural areas. Since early to mid 1980s, the uplands have experienced prolonged droughts and poor rainfall distribution, while the dambos have experienced recurrent seasonal floods. This study assessed some of the adaptive strategies exercised by small-scale rural farmers in response to climate change in the Shire Valley. The methodology used in collecting information includes group discussions, household surveys in the area, secondary data, and field observations. The results show that small-scale rural farmers exercise a number of adaptive strategies in response to climate change. These adaptive strategies include: increased use of water resources for small-scale irrigation or wetland farming, mostly using simple delivery techniques; increased management of residual moisture; and increased alternative sources of income such as fishing and crop diversity. It was also observed that government promoted the use of portable motorized pumps for small-scale irrigation in order to mitigate the effects of climate change. However, these external interventions were not fully adopted; instead the farmers preferred local interventions which mostly had indigenous elements.

  1. Climate Change Adaptation Options for the Congo Basin Countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Garderen, van L.; Ludwig, F.

    2012-01-01

    During the last decades, the importance and seriousness of climate change and it’s impacts have become more and more understood. The climate is already changing and therefor adaptation to these changes need to be made. Central Africa needs to adapt to climate change just as much as the rest of the

  2. Climate change and Public health: vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzzone, F.; Setegn, S.

    2013-12-01

    Climate Change plays a significant role in public health. Changes in climate affect weather conditions that we are accustomed to. Increases in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events such as storms could increase the risk of dangerous flooding, high winds, and other direct threats to people and property. Changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and extreme events could enhance the spread of some diseases. According to studies by EPA, the impacts of climate change on health will depend on many factors. These factors include the effectiveness of a community's public health and safety systems to address or prepare for the risk and the behavior, age, gender, and economic status of individuals affected. Impacts will likely vary by region, the sensitivity of populations, the extent and length of exposure to climate change impacts, and society's ability to adapt to change. Transmissions of infectious disease have been associated with social, economic, ecological, health care access, and climatic factors. Some vector-borne diseases typically exhibit seasonal patterns in which the role of temperature and rainfall is well documented. Some of the infectious diseases that have been documented by previous studies, include the correlation between rainfall and drought in the occurrence of malaria, the influence of the dry season on epidemic meningococcal disease in the sub-Saharan African, and the importance of warm ocean waters in driving cholera occurrence in the Ganges River delta in Asia The rise of climate change has been a major concern in the public health sector. Climate change mainly affects vulnerable populations especially in developing countries; therefore, it's important that public health advocates are involve in the decision-making process in order to provide resources and preventative measures for the challenges that are associated with climate change. The main objective of this study is to assess the vulnerability and impact of climate change

  3. Barriers in Local Climate Change Adaptation Planning in Nepal

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dhungana, N.; Chiranjeewee, Khadka; Bhatta, B. P.; Regmi, S.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 62 (2017), s. 20-24 ISSN 2224-3240 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Local Adaptation Plan for Action Framework * Barriers * Climate Change Adaptation * Village Development Committees Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour

  4. Water System Adaptation To Hydrological Changes: Module 7, Adaptation Principles and Considerations

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course will introduce students to the fundamental principles of water system adaptation to hydrological changes, with emphasis on data analysis and interpretation, technical planning, and computational modeling. Starting with real-world scenarios and adaptation needs, the co...

  5. Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael S. Balshi; A. David McGuire; Paul Duffy; Mike Flannigan; John Walsh; Jerry Melillo

    2009-01-01

    We developed temporally and spatially explicit relationships between air temperature and fuel moisture codes derived from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System to estimate annual area burned at 2.5o (latitude x longitude) resolution using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) approach across Alaska and Canada. Burned area was...

  6. Tourism and climate change: socioeconomic implications, mitigation and adaptation measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Utsab Bhattarai

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between tourism and changing climate has been discussed and studied for a relatively long time in tourism research. Over the past 15 years, more focused studies have begun to appear, and especially recently, the issue of adaptation and mitigation has been emphasized as an urgent research need in tourism and climate change studies. This paper is based on the review of selected articles which discuss the several forms of tourism and climate change and provide recommendations for mitigation and adaptation measures. This review paper assesses the impacts of climate change on the popular forms of tourism such as; mountain tourism, wildlife tourism, adventure tourism, sun/sand tourism; last chance tourism, and describes the extent of tourism vulnerabilities and their implications. The paper concludes that the appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures have to be followed to minimize the risk of climate change while trying to save all forms of tourism. The initiative of this article is to present an overview of the existing literature on the relationship between tourism and climate change in order to establish the current state of corporate and institutional responses within the tourism industry and to set out an agenda for future research. The currency of the review is evident given the recent surge in popular discussion on climate change and its effects on tourism, and the appearance of a broad and disparate array of studies on this topic. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ije.v4i2.12664 International Journal of Environment Vol.4(2 2015: 355-373

  7. Local adaptation in brown trout early life-history traits: implications for climate change adaptability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, L.F.; Hansen, Michael Møller; Pertoldi, C.

    2008-01-01

      Knowledge of local adaptation and adaptive potential of natural populations is becoming increasingly relevant due to anthropogenic changes in the environment, such as climate change. The concern is that populations will be negatively affected by increasing temperatures without the capacity...... and heritable variation in phenotypic plasticity suggest that although increasing temperatures are likely to affect some populations negatively, they may have the potential to adapt to changing temperature regimes.  ...... traits, indicating local adaptation. A temperature effect was observed for three traits. However, this effect varied among populations due to locally adapted reaction norms, corresponding to the temperature regimes experienced by the populations in their native environments. Additive genetic variance...

  8. Adaptive Landscapes of Resistance Genes Change as Antibiotic Concentrations Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mira, Portia M; Meza, Juan C; Nandipati, Anna; Barlow, Miriam

    2015-10-01

    Most studies on the evolution of antibiotic resistance are focused on selection for resistance at lethal antibiotic concentrations, which has allowed the detection of mutant strains that show strong phenotypic traits. However, solely focusing on lethal concentrations of antibiotics narrowly limits our perspective of antibiotic resistance evolution. New high-resolution competition assays have shown that resistant bacteria are selected at relatively low concentrations of antibiotics. This finding is important because sublethal concentrations of antibiotics are found widely in patients undergoing antibiotic therapies, and in nonmedical conditions such as wastewater treatment plants, and food and water used in agriculture and farming. To understand the impacts of sublethal concentrations on selection, we measured 30 adaptive landscapes for a set of TEM β-lactamases containing all combinations of the four amino acid substitutions that exist in TEM-50 for 15 β-lactam antibiotics at multiple concentrations. We found that there are many evolutionary pathways within this collection of landscapes that lead to nearly every TEM-genotype that we studied. While it is known that the pathways change depending on the type of β-lactam, this study demonstrates that the landscapes including fitness optima also change dramatically as the concentrations of antibiotics change. Based on these results we conclude that the presence of multiple concentrations of β-lactams in an environment result in many different adaptive landscapes through which pathways to nearly every genotype are available. Ultimately this may increase the diversity of genotypes in microbial populations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  9. Economic assessment of climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in Odense, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Halsnæs, Kirsten; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is likely to influence the water cycle by changing the precipitation patterns, in some cases leading to increased occurrences of precipitation extremes. Urban landscapes are vulnerable to such changes due to the concentrated population and socio-economic values in cities. Feasible...... adaptation requires better flood risk quantification and assessment of appropriate adaptation actions in term of costs and benefits. This paper presents an economic assessment of three prevailing climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in a Danish case study, Odense. A risk-based evaluation...... to adapt to urban pluvial flooding due to climate impacts in cities....

  10. Rewarding imperfect motor performance reduces adaptive changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Kooij, K.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304823406; Overvliet, K. E.

    2016-01-01

    Could a pat on the back affect motor adaptation? Recent studies indeed suggest that rewards can boost motor adaptation. However, the rewards used were typically reward gradients that carried quite detailed information about performance. We investigated whether simple binary rewards affected how

  11. Africa and climate change: Adapt, survive, thrive? | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2011-01-27

    Jan 27, 2011 ... Learning what farming practices work best in changing climates and putting those changes into practice is an important part of adaptation, and something that the programme 'Climate Change Adaptation in Africa' (CCAA) — jointly funded by the Canadian International Development Research Centre and ...

  12. Beyond Reduction: Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Universities and Colleges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, Rochelle; Fisher, Erica; McKenzie, Kyle

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to outline a unique six-step process for the inclusion of climate change adaption goals and strategies in a University Climate Change Plan. Design/methodology/approach: A mixed-method approach was used to gather data on campus climate change vulnerabilities and adaption strategies. A literature review…

  13. Face adaptation: Changing stable representations of familiar faces within minutes?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claus-Christian Carbon

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Three experiments are reported showing that the perception and the assessment of veridicality of familiar faces are highly adaptive to new visual information. Subjects were asked to discriminate between real photographs and altered versions of celebrities. Exposing participants to extremely deviated versions changed the usually stable representations of the famous faces within a very short time. In Experiment 1, exposure to an extreme face version resulted in identity decisions shifted towards the exposed one. Experiment 2 revealed that the effects are not short lasting. In Experiment 3, we showed that the effect also generalizes to different pictures of the same famous person. Together the experiments seem to indicate that the brain permanently adapts to new perceptual information and integrates new data within already elaborated representations in a fast way.

  14. Integrated Decision Support for Global Environmental Change Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S.; Cantrell, S.; Higgins, G. J.; Marshall, J.; VanWijngaarden, F.

    2011-12-01

    Environmental changes are happening now that has caused concern in many parts of the world; particularly vulnerable are the countries and communities with limited resources and with natural environments that are more susceptible to climate change impacts. Global leaders are concerned about the observed phenomena and events such as Amazon deforestation, shifting monsoon patterns affecting agriculture in the mountain slopes of Peru, floods in Pakistan, water shortages in Middle East, droughts impacting water supplies and wildlife migration in Africa, and sea level rise impacts on low lying coastal communities in Bangladesh. These environmental changes are likely to get exacerbated as the temperatures rise, the weather and climate patterns change, and sea level rise continues. Large populations and billions of dollars of infrastructure could be affected. At Northrop Grumman, we have developed an integrated decision support framework for providing necessary information to stakeholders and planners to adapt to the impacts of climate variability and change at the regional and local levels. This integrated approach takes into account assimilation and exploitation of large and disparate weather and climate data sets, regional downscaling (dynamic and statistical), uncertainty quantification and reduction, and a synthesis of scientific data with demographic and economic data to generate actionable information for the stakeholders and decision makers. Utilizing a flexible service oriented architecture and state-of-the-art visualization techniques, this information can be delivered via tailored GIS portals to meet diverse set of user needs and expectations. This integrated approach can be applied to regional and local risk assessments, predictions and decadal projections, and proactive adaptation planning for vulnerable communities. In this paper we will describe this comprehensive decision support approach with selected applications and case studies to illustrate how this

  15. Integrating climate change adaptation into public health practice: using adaptive management to increase adaptive capacity and build resilience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hess, Jeremy J; McDowell, Julia Z; Luber, George

    2012-02-01

    Climate change is expected to have a range of health impacts, some of which are already apparent. Public health adaptation is imperative, but there has been little discussion of how to increase adaptive capacity and resilience in public health systems. We explored possible explanations for the lack of work on adaptive capacity, outline climate-health challenges that may lie outside public health's coping range, and consider changes in practice that could increase public health's adaptive capacity. We conducted a substantive, interdisciplinary literature review focused on climate change adaptation in public health, social learning, and management of socioeconomic systems exhibiting dynamic complexity. There are two competing views of how public health should engage climate change adaptation. Perspectives differ on whether climate change will primarily amplify existing hazards, requiring enhancement of existing public health functions, or present categorically distinct threats requiring innovative management strategies. In some contexts, distinctly climate-sensitive health threats may overwhelm public health's adaptive capacity. Addressing these threats will require increased emphasis on institutional learning, innovative management strategies, and new and improved tools. Adaptive management, an iterative framework that embraces uncertainty, uses modeling, and integrates learning, may be a useful approach. We illustrate its application to extreme heat in an urban setting. Increasing public health capacity will be necessary for certain climate-health threats. Focusing efforts to increase adaptive capacity in specific areas, promoting institutional learning, embracing adaptive management, and developing tools to facilitate these processes are important priorities and can improve the resilience of local public health systems to climate change.

  16. Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

    2011-09-30

    This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.

  17. The Adaptation Gap Report. Towards Global Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2017-01-01

    of the temperature goal. The 2017 Adaptation Gap Report, which is the third global Adaptation Gap Report by UN Environment – prepared in collaboration with the Global Centre of Excellence on Climate Adaptation – focuses on one of the key questions arising in the wake of the global goal: What are the ways forward...... progress in achieving the global goal on adaptation. In addition, the Paris Agreement contains two other provisions on adaptation that are important in the context of this report: the transparency framework and adaptation communications. These four provisions and the interlinkages between them...

  18. Climate change adaptation strategy for the Folk Communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abdul-Al-Pavel, Muha.; Khan, Mohammed Abu Sayed Arfin; Rahman, Syed Ajijur

    2013-01-01

    In Bangladesh, impacts on agriculture from extreme climate are increasingly vulnerable. On the other hand, folk communities are intensely depending on agriculture for their livelihoods. Climate change has already negatively affected the vegetable production by annual recurrent flood in Bangladesh....... This study is an assessment of the new vegetable production system that could adopt in a changing climatic condition. With the popular eight vegetable species, the field experiment consisted of four treatments which were conducted in the bags. However, treatment (TD) which consisted of Coriander (Coriander...... of this study might be helpful for the flood affected folk communities produce vegetables for their own consumption and income. Likewise, new experiments with altered technique and vegetable species are recommended to conclusively develop climate change adaptation strategies for flood prone areas....

  19. Weather Extremes, Climate Change and Adaptive Governance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veland, S.; Lynch, A. H.

    2014-12-01

    Human societies have become a geologic agent of change, and with this is an increasing awareness of the environment risks that confront human activities and values. More frequent and extreme hydroclimate events, anomalous tropical cyclone seasons, heat waves and droughts have all been documented, and many rigorously attributed to fossil fuel emissions (e.g. DeGaetano 2009; Hoyos et al. 2006). These extremes, however, do not register themselves in the abstract - they occur in particular places, affecting particular populations and ecosystems (Turner et al. 2003). This can be considered to present a policy window to decrease vulnerability and enhance emergency management. However, the asymmetrical character of these events may lead some to treat remote areas or disenfranchised populations as capable of absorbing the environmental damage attributable to the collective behavior of those residing in wealthy, populous, industrialized societies (Young 1989). Sound policies for adaptation to changing extremes must take into account the multiple interests and resource constraints for the populations affected and their broader contexts. Minimizing vulnerability to weather extremes is only one of many interests in human societies, and as noted, this interest competes with the others for limited time, attention, funds and other resources. Progress in reducing vulnerability also depends on policy that integrates the best available local and scientific knowledge and experience elsewhere. This improves the chance that each policy will succeed, but there are no guarantees. Each policy must be recognized as a matter of trial and error to some extent; surprises are inevitable. Thus each policy should be designed to fail gracefully if it fails, to learn from the experience, and to leave resources sufficient to implement the lessons learned. Overall policy processes must be quasi-evolutionary, avoiding replication without modification of failed policies and building on the successes

  20. [Characteristics and adaptation of seasonal drought in southern China under the background of climate change. V. Seasonal drought characteristics division and assessment in southern China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Wan-Hua; Sui, Yue; Yang, Xiao-Guang; Dai, Shu-Wei; Li, Mao-Song

    2013-10-01

    Zoning seasonal drought based on the study of drought characteristics can provide theoretical basis for formulating drought mitigation plans and improving disaster reduction technologies in different arid zones under global climate change. Based on the National standard of meteorological drought indices and agricultural drought indices and the 1959-2008 meteorological data from 268 meteorological stations in southern China, this paper analyzed the climatic background and distribution characteristics of seasonal drought in southern China, and made a three-level division of seasonal drought in this region by the methods of combining comprehensive factors and main factors, stepwise screening indices, comprehensive disaster analysis, and clustering analysis. The first-level division was with the annual aridity index and seasonal aridity index as the main indices and with the precipitation during entire year and main crop growing season as the auxiliary indices, dividing the southern China into four primary zones, including semi-arid zone, sub-humid zone, humid zone, and super-humid zone. On this basis, the four primary zones were subdivided into nine second-level zones, including one semi-arid area-temperate-cold semi-arid hilly area in Sichuan-Yunnan Plateau, three sub-humid areas of warm sub-humid area in the north of the Yangtze River, warm-tropical sub-humid area in South China, and temperate-cold sub-humid plateau area in Southwest China, three humid areas of temperate-tropical humid area in the Yangtze River Basin, warm-tropical humid area in South China, and warm humid hilly area in Southwest China, and two super-humid areas of warm-tropical super-humid area in South China and temperate-cold super-humid hilly area in the south of the Yangtze River and Southwest China. According to the frequency and intensity of multiple drought indices, the second-level zones were further divided into 29 third-level zones. The distribution of each seasonal drought zone was

  1. Being Prepared for Climate Change: A Workbook for Developing Risk-Based Adaptation Plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    This workbook is a guide for environmental professionals to construct a climate change adaptation plan based on identifying risks and their consequences. It incorporates watershed management, vulnerability assessments and action planning.

  2. Climate change adaptation for the US National Wildlife Refuge System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, Brad; Scott, J. Michael; Adamcik, Robert S.; Ashe, Daniel; Czech, Brian; Fischman, Robert; Gonzalez, Patrick; Lawler, Joshua J.; McGuire, A. David; Pidgorna, Anna

    2009-01-01

    Since its establishment in 1903, the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) has grown to 635 units and 37 Wetland Management Districts in the United States and its territories. These units provide the seasonal habitats necessary for migratory waterfowl and other species to complete their annual life cycles. Habitat conversion and fragmentation, invasive species, pollution, and competition for water have stressed refuges for decades, but the interaction of climate change with these stressors presents the most recent, pervasive, and complex conservation challenge to the NWRS. Geographic isolation and small unit size compound the challenges of climate change, but a combined emphasis on species that refuges were established to conserve and on maintaining biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health provides the NWRS with substantial latitude to respond. Individual symptoms of climate change can be addressed at the refuge level, but the strategic response requires system-wide planning. A dynamic vision of the NWRS in a changing climate, an explicit national strategic plan to implement that vision, and an assessment of representation, redundancy, size, and total number of units in relation to conservation targets are the first steps toward adaptation. This adaptation must begin immediately and be built on more closely integrated research and management. Rigorous projections of possible futures are required to facilitate adaptation to change. Furthermore, the effective conservation footprint of the NWRS must be increased through land acquisition, creative partnerships, and educational programs in order for the NWRS to meet its legal mandate to maintain the biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health of the system and the species and ecosystems that it supports.

  3. Climate change concerns, weather expectations, and willingness to adapt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klima, K.; Bruine de Bruin, W.; Dessai, S.; Lefevre, C.; Taylor, A.

    2016-12-01

    Adaptation will become necessary as climate change causes more extreme weather worldwide. People with lower climate change concerns may be less willing to act. Yet, people who dismiss climate change may still perceive that extreme weather events are becoming more frequent or more intense. It is possible that weather perceptions and change concerns are partially independent constructs, even if they do inform each other. In this research, we ask: 1) How likely do people think that wet, windy, and hot weather events will become worse by 2050? 2) How willing are people to implement climate change adaptation? and 3) Is willingness to adapt to climate change motivated by perceptions of extreme weather, independent of concerns about climate change? To answer these questions, we surveyed two areas with different political views on climate change and extreme weather events, the United States (474 participants) and the United Kingdom (607 participants). We find expectations for extreme weather and willingness to adapt vary between countries; US residents expect hot weather to worsen the most, and for UK residents the least. Willingness to adapt varies as well. Yet, for each type of weather, weather expectations and climate change concerns independently predict willingness to adapt, in the US and the UK. Our findings have implications for communications about climate change adaptation. Willingness to prepare for extreme weather may be higher among individuals with low climate change concerns if the term `climate change' is omitted from communications.

  4. Can Adaptive Comanagement Help to Address the Challenges of Climate Change Adaptation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan Plummer

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available A shift is taking place within environmental governance that draws attention to modes and instruments that respond to system dynamics, uncertainty, and contested values. Adaptive comanagement is one process being advanced to make governance operational as it emphasizes collaboration among diverse actors, functions across scales and levels, and fosters learning though iterative feedback. Although extensive experience with adaptive comanagement has been gained in relation to other environmental and resource issues, its potential contribution to the governance of adaption is largely unexplored. This paper probes how adaptive comanagement might offer support to climate change adaptation and identifies gaps in knowledge requiring attention. In drawing upon existing literature and applied experiences, it is argued that adaptive comanagement may contribute to climate change adaptation by building generalized adaptive capacity as well as providing a novel institutional arrangement to generate adaptive responses. At the same time, several questions emerge about adaptive comanagement in this context. Considerations are thus discussed for adaptive comanagement scholarship and application in addressing the challenge of climate change adaptation.

  5. Assessment of the effects of climate and land cover changes on river discharge and sediment yield, and adaptive spatial planning in the Jakarta region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poerbandono, A.; Julian, M.M.; Ward, P.J.

    2014-01-01

    In Jakarta, climate change has been detected through rising air temperatures, increased intensity of rainfall in the wet season, and sea level rise. The coupling of such changes with local anthropogenic driven modifications in the environmental setting could contribute to an increased probability of

  6. Global climate change adaptation priorities for biodiversity and food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah, Lee; Ikegami, Makihiko; Hole, David G; Seo, Changwan; Butchart, Stuart H M; Peterson, A Townsend; Roehrdanz, Patrick R

    2013-01-01

    International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.

  7. Global Climate Change Adaptation Priorities for Biodiversity and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah, Lee; Ikegami, Makihiko; Hole, David G.; Seo, Changwan; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Peterson, A. Townsend; Roehrdanz, Patrick R.

    2013-01-01

    International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services. PMID:23991125

  8. Technologies for adaptation. Perspectives and practical experiences; Climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christiansen, Lars; Olhoff, A.; Traerup, S.

    2011-11-15

    The present report is the second volume of the UNEP Risoe Centre Technology Transfer Perspectives Series. The report is related to the global Technology Needs Assessment (TNA) project, financed by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and implemented by UNEP Risoe Centre. The nine articles in this volume discuss issues like: a) the concepts and context of technologies for adaptation; b) assessments of adaptation technology needs; c) practical experiences from working with technologies for adaptation. (LN)

  9. Delivering organisational adaptation through legislative mechanisms: Evidence from the Adaptation Reporting Power (Climate Change Act 2008).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jude, S R; Drew, G H; Pollard, S J T; Rocks, S A; Jenkinson, K; Lamb, R

    2017-01-01

    There is increasing recognition that organisations, particularly in key infrastructure sectors, are potentially vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather events, and require organisational responses to ensure they are resilient and adaptive. However, detailed evidence of how adaptation is facilitated, implemented and reported, particularly through legislative mechanisms is lacking. The United Kingdom Climate Change Act (2008), introduced the Adaptation Reporting Power, enabling the Government to direct so-called reporting authorities to report their climate change risks and adaptation plans. We describe the authors' unique role and experience supporting the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) during the Adaptation Reporting Power's first round. An evaluation framework, used to review the adaptation reports, is presented alongside evidence on how the process provides new insights into adaptation activities and triggered organisational change in 78% of reporting authorities, including the embedding of climate risk and adaptation issues. The role of legislative mechanisms and risk-based approaches in driving and delivering adaptation is discussed alongside future research needs, including the development of organisational maturity models to determine resilient and well adapting organisations. The Adaptation Reporting Power process provides a basis for similar initiatives in other countries, although a clear engagement strategy to ensure buy-in to the process and research on its long-term legacy, including the potential merits of voluntary approaches, is required. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Partnering for climate change adaptations by Dutch housing associations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Roders

    2015-06-01

    partnering. These integrated methods aim to involve the construction sector early in the development of plans so that they can contribute their expertise. This creates a more efficient construction and maintenance process and delivers dwellings of higher quality.The housing associations cannot pre-empt all the effects of climate change alone. For adaptation measures at the neighbourhood level, they are dependent on collaboration with other stakeholders such as municipalities, but there are measures that can be applied at the building level, which falls within their range of influence. An example is the application of lighter colours on building façades in order to reflect radiation and reduce the air temperature close to the façades. The hazards of overflowing sewage systems caused by extreme precipitation can be reduced by applying measures to retain water temporarily, such as ‘green roofs’ or to ensure effective drainage such as open pavements. These measures reduce the peak load on the sewage system. Another effective measure is the use of materials that are not negatively affected by water so that if, despite all the precautionary measures, flooding does occur, the consequences would be less severe.Problem formulationThis research assesses the potential of adopting a partnering approach as a governance tool with which to increase the implementation of climate change adaptation measures like those described above. The housing stock owned by Dutch housing associations is taken as a case study. Involving the construction sector through a partnering approach is promising, since construction companies are the ones who carry out the works. Their early commitment reduces the risks of miscommunication or  failure and enhances opportunities for innovative solutions. By doing this, not only do housing associations take responsibility for their actions, but the construction sector as a whole gains more responsibility for solving societal challenges and is enabled to co

  11. Partnering for climate change adaptations by Dutch housing associations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Roders

    2015-06-01

    as partnering. These integrated methods aim to involve the construction sector early in the development of plans so that they can contribute their expertise. This creates a more efficient construction and maintenance process and delivers dwellings of higher quality. The housing associations cannot pre-empt all the effects of climate change alone. For adaptation measures at the neighbourhood level, they are dependent on collaboration with other stakeholders such as municipalities, but there are measures that can be applied at the building level, which falls within their range of influence. An example is the application of lighter colours on building façades in order to reflect radiation and reduce the air temperature close to the façades. The hazards of overflowing sewage systems caused by extreme precipitation can be reduced by applying measures to retain water temporarily, such as ‘green roofs’ or to ensure effective drainage such as open pavements. These measures reduce the peak load on the sewage system. Another effective measure is the use of materials that are not negatively affected by water so that if, despite all the precautionary measures, flooding does occur, the consequences would be less severe. Problem formulation This research assesses the potential of adopting a partnering approach as a governance tool with which to increase the implementation of climate change adaptation measures like those described above. The housing stock owned by Dutch housing associations is taken as a case study. Involving the construction sector through a partnering approach is promising, since construction companies are the ones who carry out the works. Their early commitment reduces the risks of miscommunication or  failure and enhances opportunities for innovative solutions. By doing this, not only do housing associations take responsibility for their actions, but the construction sector as a whole gains more responsibility for solving societal challenges and is

  12. Impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies in rural ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies in rural communities of Kaduna State, Nigeria. ... Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management ... of some selected rural communities of Kaduna state, and the adaptation strategies employed by the people to ameliorate the scourge of climate change.

  13. Growing assisted migration: Synthesis of a climate change adaptation strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mary I. Williams; R. Kasten Dumroese

    2013-01-01

    Assisted migration may be necessary as a climate change adaptation strategy for native plant species that are less adaptive or mobile. Moving plants has been practiced a long time in human history, but movement of species in response to climate change is a new context. First proposed in 1985, assisted migration has gained attention since 2007 as a strategy to prevent...

  14. Adaptation to Increase Resilience to Climate Change in Ethiopian ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Water Resources and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Vulnerable North China Plain and Poyang Lake Region. The flood-prone Poyang Lake is the largest freshwater lake in China, accounting for 9% of the drainage area of the Yangtze River Basin. View moreWater Resources and Adaptation to Climate Change in the ...

  15. Monitoring and Evaluation Toolkit for Climate Change Adaptation ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Many African countries, regions and organizations are making plans for climate change adaptation. If such plans are to be effective, they will need to be monitored and evaluated on an ongoing basis. This grant will support the integration of monitoring and evaluation (M&E) in climate change adaptation initiatives by ...

  16. Climate project screening tool: an aid for climate change adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toni Lyn Morelli; Sharon Yeh; Nikola M. Smith; Mary Beth Hennessy; Constance I. Millar

    2012-01-01

    To address the impacts of climate change, land managers need techniques for incorporating adaptation into ongoing or impending projects. We present a new tool, the Climate Project Screening Tool (CPST), for integrating climate change considerations into project planning as well as for developing concrete adaptation options for land managers. We designed CPST as part of...

  17. Mobilizing Private Sector Investment in Adaptation to Climate Change

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    This research aims to address how to expand the spectrum of options available for private sector financing of climate adaptation. It will also explore ways to leverage private finance to scale up adaptation efforts in developing countries. Climate change and the private sector Private sector investment in climate change ...

  18. Communicating Climate Change Risks for Adaptation in Coastal ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Communicating Climate Change Risks for Adaptation in Coastal and Delta Communities in Viet Nam. Decisions concerning climate change adaptation are necessarily made by local and national governments, but households, community groups and private enterprises need to be informed so that they can make decisions ...

  19. Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in Canadian Jurisdictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Stephanie E.; Ford, James D.; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Araos, Malcolm; Parker, Stephen; Fleury, Manon D.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change poses numerous risks to the health of Canadians. Extreme weather events, poor air quality, and food insecurity in northern regions are likely to increase along with the increasing incidence and range of infectious diseases. In this study we identify and characterize Canadian federal, provincial, territorial and municipal adaptation to these health risks based on publically available information. Federal health adaptation initiatives emphasize capacity building and gathering information to address general health, infectious disease and heat-related risks. Provincial and territorial adaptation is varied. Quebec is a leader in climate change adaptation, having a notably higher number of adaptation initiatives reported, addressing almost all risks posed by climate change in the province, and having implemented various adaptation types. Meanwhile, all other Canadian provinces and territories are in the early stages of health adaptation. Based on publically available information, reported adaptation also varies greatly by municipality. The six sampled Canadian regional health authorities (or equivalent) are not reporting any adaptation initiatives. We also find little relationship between the number of initiatives reported in the six sampled municipalities and their provinces, suggesting that municipalities are adapting (or not adapting) autonomously. PMID:25588156

  20. Modelling bark beetle disturbances in a large scale forest scenario model to assess climate change impacts and evaluate adaptive management strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seidl, R.; Schelhaas, M.J.; Lindner, M.; Lexer, M.J.

    2009-01-01

    To study potential consequences of climate-induced changes in the biotic disturbance regime at regional to national scale we integrated a model of Ips typographus (L. Scol. Col.) damages into the large-scale forest scenario model EFISCEN. A two-stage multivariate statistical meta-model was used to

  1. CRISPR-Cas : Adapting to change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jackson, Simon A.; McKenzie, R.E.; Fagerlund, Robert D.; Kieper, S.N.; Fineran, Peter C.; Brouns, S.J.J.

    2017-01-01

    Bacteria and archaea are engaged in a constant arms race to defend against the ever-present threats of viruses and invasion by mobile genetic elements. The most flexible weapons in the prokaryotic defense arsenal are the CRISPR-Cas adaptive immune systems. These systems are capable of selective

  2. Migration from atolls as climate change adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birk, Thomas Ladegaard Kümmel; Rasmussen, Kjeld

    2014-01-01

    that migration currently improves access to financial and social capital, reduces pressure on natural resources and makes island communities less vulnerable to extreme weather events and other shocks — all factors that contribute positively to adaptive capacity. It also shows that there are major barriers...

  3. A roadmap for climate change adaptation in Sweden's forests: addressing wicked problems using adaptive management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rist, L.; Felton, A.; Samuelsson, L.; Marald, E.; Karlsson, B.; Johansson, U.; Rosvall, O.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have significant direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems. Forests will have to adapt not only to changes in mean climate variables but also to increased climatic variability and altered disturbance regimes. Rates of change will likely exceed many forests capabilities to naturally adapt and many of today's trees will be exposed to the climates of 2090. In Sweden the effects are already being seen and more severe impacts are expected in the future. Exacerbating the challenge posed by climate change, a large proportion of Sweden's forests are, as a consequence of dominant production goals, greatly simplified and thus potentially more vulnerable to the uncertainties and risks associated with climate change. This simplification also confers reduced adaptive capacity to respond to potential impacts. Furthermore, many adaptation measures themselves carry uncertainties and risks. Future changes and effects are thus uncertain, yet forest managers, policymakers, scientists and other stakeholders must act. Strategies that build social and ecological resilience in the face of multiple interacting unknowns and surprises are needed. Adaptive management aims to collect and integrate knowledge about how a managed system is likely to respond to alternative management schemes and changing environmental conditions within a continuous decision process. There have been suggestions that adaptive management is not well suited to the large complex uncertainties associated with climate change and associated adaptation measures. However, more recently it has been suggested that adaptive management can handle such wicked problems, given adequate resources and a suitable breakdown of the targeted uncertainties. Here we test this hypothesis by evaluating how an adaptive management process could be used to manage the uncertainties and risks associated with securing resilient, biodiverse and productive forests in Sweden in the face of climate change. We

  4. Responsible Climate Change Adaptation : Exploring, analysing and evaluating public and private responsibilities for urban adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mees, Heleen

    2014-01-01

    Cities are vulnerable to climate change. To deal with climate change, city governments and private actors such as businesses and citizens need to adapt to its effects, such as sea level rise, storm surges, intense rainfall and heatwaves. However, adaptation planning and action is often hampered when

  5. Justice and Equity Implications of Climate Change Adaptation: A Theoretical Evaluation Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melanie Boeckmann

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate change affects human health, and climate change adaptation aims to reduce these risks through infrastructural, behavioral, and technological measures. However, attributing direct human health effects to climate change adaptation is difficult, causing an ethical dilemma between the need for evidence of strategies and their precautionary implementation before such evidence has been generated. In the absence of conclusive evidence for individual adaptation strategies, alternative approaches to the measurement of adaptation effectiveness need to be developed. This article proposes a theoretical framework and a set of guiding questions to assess effects of adaptation strategies on seven domains of health determinants, including social, economic, infrastructure, institutional, community, environmental, and cultural determinants of health. Its focus on advancing gender equity and environmental justice concurrently with the implementation of health-related adaptation could serve as a template for policymakers and researchers.

  6. Adapting inland fisheries management to a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paukert, Craig; Glazer, Bob A.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Irwin, Brian J.; Jacobson, Peter C.; Kershner, Jeffrey L.; Shuter, Brian J.; Whitney, James E.; Lynch, Abigail J.

    2016-01-01

    Natural resource decision makers are challenged to adapt management to a changing climate while balancing short-term management goals with long-term changes in aquatic systems. Adaptation will require developing resilient ecosystems and resilient management systems. Decision makers already have tools to develop or ensure resilient aquatic systems and fisheries such as managing harvest and riparian zones. Because fisheries management often interacts with multiple stakeholders, adaptation strategies involving fisheries managers and other partners focused on land use, policy, and human systems, coupled with long-term monitoring, are necessary for resilient systems. We show how agencies and organizations are adapting to a changing climate in Minnesota and Ontario lakes and Montana streams. We also present how the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission created a management structure to develop adaptation strategies. These examples demonstrate how organizations and agencies can cope with climate change effects on fishes and fisheries through creating resilient management and ecological systems.

  7. Adaptation research meets adaptation decision-making. Second Nordic international conference on climate change adaption. Programme and abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    Nearly two years have passed since a small team of researchers began a new chapter in Nordic co-operation on climate change by organising a conference in Stockholm, Sweden. The conference, entitled Climate Adaptation in the Nordic Countries - Science, Practice, Policy, co-ordinated by the Stockholm Environment Institute and hosted by Stockholm University in November 2010, was the first of its kind in the Nordic region. Since the European Commission adopted its White Paper on adaptation to climate change in 2009, many of that document's 33 actions have been implemented, a climate change adaptation platform, Climate-ADAPT, was launched at the European Environment Agency in March this year, and just a week before this conference the Commission concluded a public consultation of stakeholders and experts in member states designed to feed into the preparation of a European Union adaptation strategy. The 2012 conference therefore presents an ideal opportunity to take stock of ongoing efforts and to consider how adaptation research efforts are keeping pace with policy demands as well as the needs of public and private decision-makers operating at a range of scales. It brings together researchers, public and private decision- makers, as well as those who plan and realize adaptation plans. Session themes include, among others: national and local adaptation plans, climate portals and climate services, adaptation in developing countries, legal aspects of adaptation, economic appraisal of adaptation, analysing and handling risk and uncertainty, urban planning and scenarios. The contributors have very diverse backgrounds, ranging from biosciences to social sciences, economics to geo-sciences, and engineering to architecture. Interest in climate change adaptation in the Nordic region is clearly high, with over 70% of our participants drawn from the five Nordic countries, but the conference has also managed to attract participation from further afield, with registrations

  8. learning for Climate Change adaptation among Selected ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    understood the causes and effects of climate change as well as the content structure of learning ... climatic changes (Ministry of Tourism, Environment and Natural Resources [MTENR], 2010). ...... on India, Japan and other Eastern countries.

  9. Adapting to the impacts of climate change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    America's Climate Choices: Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change; National Research Council; Board on Atmospheric Sciences & Climate; Division on Earth and Life Studies; National Research Council

    2010-01-01

    "Across the United States, impacts of climate change are already evident. Heat waves have become more frequent and intense, cold extremes have become less frequent, and patterns of rainfall are likely changing...

  10. Swiss tourism in the age of climate change: vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and barriers to adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Matasci, Cecilia

    2012-01-01

    This thesis analyses the impacts of climate change on Swiss tourism. It looks in particular at the regional vulnerability, adaptation, and barriers that hinder this process. The final goal of the work is to make a contribution in bringing about a smoother shift to a more sustainable tourism sector better adapted to the changing conditions. In the first part, the thesis examines the regional vulnerability of Swiss tourism to climate change for a 2030-2050 time horizon in order to define which ...

  11. Climate Change Education for Mitigation and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Allison

    2012-01-01

    This article makes the case for the education sector an untapped opportunity to combat climate change. It sets forth a definition of Climate Change Education for Sustainable Development that is comprehensive and multidisciplinary and asserts that it must not only include relevant content knowledge on climate change, environmental and social…

  12. learning for Climate Change adaptation among Selected ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    education to clarify what may or may not cause climate change. Some respondents mistook the effects of climate change for its causes, citing increased rainfall, flooding and increased temperature as causes, when, in reality, they are the effects of such change. These outcomes are similar to earlier research findings of Fumo ...

  13. Impacts and adaptation for climate change in urban forests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnston, M. [Saskatchewan Research Council, Saskatoon, SK (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    Changes to urban trees as a result of climate change were reviewed in order to aid urban forest managers in the development of adaptive climate change strategies. Various climate change models have predicted that winter and spring temperatures will increase. Higher amounts of precipitation are also anticipated. Higher temperatures will results in evapotranspiration, which will cause soil moisture levels to decline. Climatologists have also suggested that very hot days, winter storms and high rainfall events will increase in frequency. In addition, higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) will affect photosynthesis, with associated impacts on urban tree growth. Higher temperatures and longer growing seasons will allow insect populations to build up to higher levels, and warmer and dryer summers are likely to bring longer fire seasons and more severe fires. Urban trees under stress from drought and higher temperatures will be increasingly vulnerable to existing urban stressors such as air pollution and soil compaction. However, the ecological services provided by trees will become more valuable under future climate change regimes, particularly for shading and space cooling, as well as soil aeration and stabilization and the uptake of storm water. It was suggested that future tree growth may be enhanced on sites with adequate water and nutrients, but will probably decline in areas that are already marginal. It was recommended that urban forest managers assess the present vulnerability of trees to climate-related events in order to prepare for future change. Managers should also assess their capacity to implement various strategies through municipal and provincial partnerships. It was observed that decisions taken now about forest management will play out over several decades. It was concluded that maintaining a flexible and resilient urban forest management system is the best defence, as specific climate change impacts cannot be predicted. 18 refs., 4

  14. Transcultural adaptation of the Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Maria Carmen; Iwamoto, Viviane Ernesto; Latorre, Maria do Rosário Dias de Oliveira; Noronha, Adriana Moreira; Oliveira, Ana Paula de Sousa; Cardoso, Carlos Eduardo Alves; Marques, Ifigenia Augusta Braga; Vendramim, Patrícia; Lopes, Paula Cristina; de Sant'Ana, Thais Helena Saes

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Objective: to perform the transcultural adaptation and content validity analysis of the Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool to assess both fall risk and fall-related injury risk for hospitalized elderly in Brazil. Method: the transcultural adaptation consisted of translating the scale to Portuguese (Brazil), back-translating it into its language of origin, establishing a consensus version, and having an expert committee verify its transcultural equivalence. Content assessment was conducted by a committee of judges, ending with the calculation of the items and scales' content validity index. Nurses tested the tool. Results: the scale's translated version went through two evaluation rounds by the judges, based on which, the items with unsatisfactory performance were changed. The content validity index for the items was ≥80.0% and the global index 97.1%. The experimental application showed the scale is user-friendly. Conclusion: the scale presents valid content for the assessment of fall risk and risk of fall-related injuries and is easy to use, with the potential to contribute to the proper identification of risks and the establishment of care actions. PMID:27579936

  15. Guidelines for the adaptation to floods in changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata J.

    2017-08-01

    A decrease of flood damages in the future requires not only adaptation to flood caused by present day climate, but also climate change effects on floods should be taken into account. The paper illustrates the need to take into account changing climate conditions in flood adaptation strategies and to apply in practice the concept of integrated water resource management (IWRM). IWRM is based on a number of policy instruments, economic instruments, political signals, and also, on the effects of climate change on floods and collaboration across national, regional and local administrative units. The guidelines for a country adaptation to floods in a changing climate are outlined. A comparison of the adaptive capacities in Poland and Norway is used to illustrate the need for the implementation of proposed guidelines to assure flood risk management under climate change in a sustainable way.

  16. Adapting South African Settlements to the Impacts of Climate Change

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Understanding risks, offering options Drawing on a strong base of existing research, the project team will: -review adaptation plans for South African cities with the goal of identifying case studies, gaps, and adaptation options -analyze downscaled climate projections, risk maps, and vulnerability assessments to produce ...

  17. Adaptation to climate change in the Ontario public health sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paterson, Jaclyn A; Ford, James D; Ford, Lea Berrang; Lesnikowski, Alexandra; Berry, Peter; Henderson, Jim; Heymann, Jody

    2012-06-19

    Climate change is among the major challenges for health this century, and adaptation to manage adverse health outcomes will be unavoidable. The risks in Ontario - Canada's most populous province - include increasing temperatures, more frequent and intense extreme weather events, and alterations to precipitation regimes. Socio-economic-demographic patterns could magnify the implications climate change has for Ontario, including the presence of rapidly growing vulnerable populations, exacerbation of warming trends by heat-islands in large urban areas, and connectedness to global transportation networks. This study examines climate change adaptation in the public health sector in Ontario using information from interviews with government officials. Fifty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted, four with provincial and federal health officials and 49 with actors in public health and health relevant sectors at the municipal level. We identify adaptation efforts, barriers and opportunities for current and future intervention. Results indicate recognition that climate change will affect the health of Ontarians. Health officials are concerned about how a changing climate could exacerbate existing health issues or create new health burdens, specifically extreme heat (71%), severe weather (68%) and poor air-quality (57%). Adaptation is currently taking the form of mainstreaming climate change into existing public health programs. While adaptive progress has relied on local leadership, federal support, political will, and inter-agency efforts, a lack of resources constrains the sustainability of long-term adaptation programs and the acquisition of data necessary to support effective policies. This study provides a snapshot of climate change adaptation and needs in the public health sector in Ontario. Public health departments will need to capitalize on opportunities to integrate climate change into policies and programs, while higher levels of government must improve

  18. Adaptation to climate change in the Ontario public health sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paterson Jaclyn A

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Climate change is among the major challenges for health this century, and adaptation to manage adverse health outcomes will be unavoidable. The risks in Ontario – Canada’s most populous province – include increasing temperatures, more frequent and intense extreme weather events, and alterations to precipitation regimes. Socio-economic-demographic patterns could magnify the implications climate change has for Ontario, including the presence of rapidly growing vulnerable populations, exacerbation of warming trends by heat-islands in large urban areas, and connectedness to global transportation networks. This study examines climate change adaptation in the public health sector in Ontario using information from interviews with government officials. Methods Fifty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted, four with provincial and federal health officials and 49 with actors in public health and health relevant sectors at the municipal level. We identify adaptation efforts, barriers and opportunities for current and future intervention. Results Results indicate recognition that climate change will affect the health of Ontarians. Health officials are concerned about how a changing climate could exacerbate existing health issues or create new health burdens, specifically extreme heat (71%, severe weather (68% and poor air-quality (57%. Adaptation is currently taking the form of mainstreaming climate change into existing public health programs. While adaptive progress has relied on local leadership, federal support, political will, and inter-agency efforts, a lack of resources constrains the sustainability of long-term adaptation programs and the acquisition of data necessary to support effective policies. Conclusions This study provides a snapshot of climate change adaptation and needs in the public health sector in Ontario. Public health departments will need to capitalize on opportunities to integrate climate change into

  19. Rural Households’ Adaptation to Climate Change and its Implications for Policy Designs in Lijiang, China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zheng, Yuan

    As challenges and opportunities induced by climate change become increasingly manifested, adaptation strategies to these changes have received growing attention. While earlier studies focus on quantifying impacts of climate change or adaptation potential, empirical studies have been increasingly....... The thesis, carried out in three mountain villages in southwest China, seeks to advance the understanding of local adaptation process and its implications for vulnerability and policy designs. In particular, the research contributes to quantitative assessment of current and forward-looking adaptation...... changes in social-ecological systems. The PhD research demonstrates 1) the interwoven impacts of co-evolving socio-economic, political and environmental changes in shaping livelihood changes and households’ vulnerability; 2) the usefulness to accommodate key cognitive processes, such as risk perception...

  20. The role of leadership in regional climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijerink, Sander; Stiller, Sabina; Keskitalo, E.C.H.; Scholten, Peter; Smits, Robert; Lamoen, van Frank

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to better understand the role of leadership in regional climate change adaptation. We first present a framework, which distinguishes five functions of leadership within inter-organizational networks: the connective, enabling, adaptive, political–administrative and dissemination

  1. Adaptation strategies to climate change to sustain food security

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Droogers, P.; Dam, van J.C.; Hoogeveen, J.; Loeve, R.

    2004-01-01

    This chapter concentrates on the impact of climate change on food and water issues. An overview of global issues and trends is followed by a more in-depth analysis of field-scale impact and adaptation strategies for the seven basins in the ADAPT context

  2. Adaptation to Increase Resilience to Climate Change in Ethiopian ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Small-scale farmers will need to adopt water management technologies to increase food output in the face of a changing climate. There is a need to identify the barriers that farmers face. Enhancing adaptation through research This project aims to enhance the adaptation process in Ethiopia by -analyzing combinations of ...

  3. Complex Adaptive Schools: Educational Leadership and School Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kershner, Brad; McQuillan, Patrick

    2016-01-01

    This paper utilizes the theoretical framework of complexity theory to compare and contrast leadership and educational change in two urban schools. Drawing on the notion of a complex adaptive system--an interdependent network of interacting elements that learns and evolves in adapting to an ever-shifting context--our case studies seek to reveal the…

  4. Fishers' Adaptation to Climate Change in the Jebba Lake Basin ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper provides an analysis of adaptation of fishers' households to climate change around Jebba Lake Basin, Nigeria. Fisheries of Jebba Lake Basin are presented as a system of dynamic trends, seasonality and shock. An analysis of livelihood diversification reveals that some households are more adaptable to ...

  5. Contrasting frames in policy debates on climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dewulf, A.

    2013-01-01

    The process by which issues, decisions, or events acquire different meanings from different perspectives has been studied as framing. In policy debates about climate change adaptation, framing the adaptation issue is a challenge with potentially farreaching implications for the shape and success of

  6. International Research Initiative on Adaptation to Climate Change ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Extremes. To date, projections of future climate change have been based on averaged temperatures over decades. But at local and regional levels, climate variability and the occurrence of extreme events affect... View moreVulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Extremes.

  7. The interplay between social learning and adaptive capacity in climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Le, Thi Hong Phuong; Biesbroek, Robbert; Wals, Arjen E.J.

    2017-01-01

    Successful implementation climate change adaptation depends to a large extent on the capabilities of individuals, organizations, and communities to create and mobilize the adaptive capacity (AC) of their socio-ecological system. Creating and mobilizing AC is a continuous process that requires

  8. Water System Adaptation to Hydrological Changes: Module 1, Introduction to Water System Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Contemporary water management requires resilience, the ability to meet ever increasing water needs, and capacity to adapt to abrupt or transient changes in water quality and availability. For this purpose, effective adaptation to extreme hydrological events (e.g. intense storms, ...

  9. Climate Change Adaptation in the Water Sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ludwig, F.; Kabat, P.; Schaik, van H.; Valk, van der M.

    2009-01-01

    Today’s climate variability already has a large impact on water supply and protection. Millions of people are affected every year by droughts and floods. Future climate change is likely to make things worse. Many people within the water sector are aware that climate change is affecting water

  10. Climate change and agriculture: Mitigation and Adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neeteson, J.J.; Verhagen, A.

    2010-01-01

    Human activities have changed the composition of the atmosphere resulting in rising global temperatures and sea levels. Agriculture contributes significantly to climate change through the emission of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Continuation of

  11. Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toni Lyn Morelli; Christopher Daly; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Deanna M. Dulen; Joseph L. Ebersole; Stephen T. Jackson; Jessica D. Lundquist; Connie Millar; Sean P. Maher; William B. Monahan; Koren R. Nydick; Kelly T. Redmond; Sarah C. Sawyer; Sarah Stock; Steven R. Beissinger

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that...

  12. Turning points in climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Werners, Saskia Elisabeth; Slobbe, van Erik; Bölscher, Tobias; Oost, Albert; Pfenninger, Stefan; Trombi, Giacomo; Bindi, Marco; Moriondo, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Concerned decision makers increasingly pose questions as to whether current management practices are able to cope with climate change and increased climate variability. This signifies a shift in the framing of climate change from asking what its potential impacts are to asking whether it induces

  13. Turning points in climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Werners, Saskia Elisabeth; van Slobbe, Erik; Bölscher, Tobias; Oost, Albert; Pfenninger, Stefan; Trombi, Giacomo; Bindi, Marco; Moriondo, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Concerned decision makers increasingly pose questions as to whether current management practices are able to cope with climate change and increased climate variability. This signifies a shift in the framing of climate change from asking what its potential impacts are to asking whether it induces

  14. Adapting to Climate Change through Improved Watershed ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Other problems, such as ecosystem degradation and climate change impacts, are compromising water quality and availability, increasing the risk of droughts and floods in the watershed. Given these pressures, this project seeks to inform changes to the current approach to integrated water resources management.

  15. Responsibility for private sector adaptation to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tina Schneider

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007 indicates that vulnerable industries should adapt to the increasing likelihood of extreme weather events along with slowly shifting mean annual temperatures and precipitation patterns, to prevent major damages or periods of inoperability in the future. Most articles in the literature on business management frame organizational adaptation to climate change as a private action. This makes adaptation the sole responsibility of a company, for its sole benefit, and overlooks the fact that some companies provide critical goods and services such a food, water, electricity, and medical care, that are so vital to society that even a short-term setback in operations could put public security at risk. This raises the following questions: (1 Who is responsible for climate change adaptation by private-sector suppliers of critical infrastructure? (2 How can those who are identified to be responsible, actually be held to assume their responsibility for adapting to climate change? These questions will be addressed through a comprehensive review of the literature on business management, complemented by a review of specialized literature on public management. This review leads to several conclusions. Even though tasks that formerly belonged to the state have been taken over by private companies, the state still holds ultimate responsibility in the event of failure of private-sector owned utilities, insofar as they are "critical infrastructure." Therefore, it remains the state's responsibility to foster adaptation to climate change with appropriate action. In theory, effective ways of assuming this responsibility, while enabling critical infrastructure providers the flexibility adapt to climate change, would be to delegate adaptation to an agency, or to conduct negotiations with stakeholders. In view of this theory, Germany will be used as a case study to demonstrate how private-sector critical infrastructure

  16. Climate change adaptability of cropping and farming systems for Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justes, Eric; Rossing, Walter; Vermue, Anthony

    Introduction: Prospective studies showed that the European agriculture will be impacted by climate change (CC) with different effects depending on the geographic region. The ERA-Net+ project Climate-CAFE (call of FACCE-JPI) aims to improve the “adaptive capacity” of arable and forage based farming...... systems to CC through a gradient of adaptation strategies. Methods: The adaptation strategies are evaluated at cropping and farming systems as well as regional levels for nine “Adaptation Pilots” along a North-South climate gradient in the EU. Three categories of strategies are evaluated: i) Resistance...

  17. Knowledge Sharing for Climate Change Adaptation in Africa : 2010 ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    ecological systems by means of more focused knowledge sharing; to increase communication between the different actors involved in adaptation to climate change; ... Journal supplement features 10 years of West African health systems research.

  18. Climate change, adaptation and the environment in central Vietnam

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Ole; Casse, Thorkil

    2013-01-01

    There is an urgent need for integrated approaches, such as the building of environmental management into climate change responses, addressing the total impact of livelihood stresses in social vulnerability perspectives, and ensuring that overall adaptation policies adequately address social justice...

  19. Adaptations in phytoplankton to changing conditions in tropical estuaries

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Qasim, S.Z.

    Experimental studies on phytoplankton organisms from Cochin backwaters (a tropical estuary) have shown that many algal forms are adapted to changing conditions of salinity, light and nutrients. Photosynthesis in 12 species of algae was found...

  20. DEltas, vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Hutton C.W.

    Stakeholder Dialogue, London, June 19th, 2014. DEltas, vulnerability and Climate. Change: Migration and Adaptation. (DECCMA). Stakeholder Dialogue. Radisson Blu Edwardian Grafton Hotel, London, UK. June 19th, 2014 ...

  1. Building up climate change adaptation expertise in Africa: Lead ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Hayley Price

    Antananarivo, Madagascar. Vulnerability and Adaptation of Agricultural. Systems in Madagascar. Ministry of Natural Resources Management and. Agriculture, Midlands State University ... Building and Knowledge on Sustainable responses to Climate Change in small Island States. Nigeria Environmental Study Action Team.

  2. What facilitates adaptation? An analysis of community-based adaptation to environmental change in the Andes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felipe Murtinho

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This study analyses the environmental, socio-economic andinstitutional factors that influence community-based adaptation strategies in 16municipalities in the rural Andes of Colombia. The study focuses specifically onthe factors that influence whether communities decide to take measures to managetheir water and micro-watersheds in response to water scarcity caused by climatevariability and land-use changes. The research uses quantitative and qualitativemethods incorporating data from surveys to 104 water user associations,precipitation and land-use data, municipal socio-economic information, and semistructured interviews with key informants. The results reveal 1 the links betweenenvironmental change and the type of adaptation that communities implement,and 2 how, in face of water scarcity changes, external funding facilitatesadaptation. The findings of this study contributes to the common-pool resourceand adaptation literatures by highlighting the important role that external actorsmay have in shaping collective action to adapt to environmental change.

  3. Adaptable Information Models in the Global Change Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duggan, B.; Buddenberg, A.; Aulenbach, S.; Wolfe, R.; Goldstein, J.

    2014-12-01

    The US Global Change Research Program has sponsored the creation of the Global Change Information System () to provide a web based source of accessible, usable, and timely information about climate and global change for use by scientists, decision makers, and the public. The GCIS played multiple roles during the assembly and release of the Third National Climate Assessment. It provided human and programmable interfaces, relational and semantic representations of information, and discrete identifiers for various types of resources, which could then be manipulated by a distributed team with a wide range of specialties. The GCIS also served as a scalable backend for the web based version of the report. In this talk, we discuss the infrastructure decisions made during the design and deployment of the GCIS, as well as ongoing work to adapt to new types of information. Both a constrained relational database and an open ended triple store are used to ensure data integrity while maintaining fluidity. Using natural primary keys allows identifiers to propagate through both models. Changing identifiers are accomodated through fine grained auditing and explicit mappings to external lexicons. A practical RESTful API is used whose endpoints are also URIs in an ontology. Both the relational schema and the ontology are maleable, and stability is ensured through test driven development and continuous integration testing using modern open source techniques. Content is also validated through continuous testing techniques. A high degres of scalability is achieved through caching.

  4. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change ref...

  5. Gulf Coast climate change adaptation pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    Climate change-related issues place substantial operating and financial burdens on public transit agencies, particularly in coastal settings. Gulf of Mexico coastal transit agencies and their constituents are especially vulnerable to natural hazards ...

  6. Savings in locomotor adaptation explained by changes in learning parameters following initial adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mawase, Firas; Shmuelof, Lior; Bar-Haim, Simona; Karniel, Amir

    2014-04-01

    Faster relearning of an external perturbation, savings, offers a behavioral linkage between motor learning and memory. To explain savings effects in reaching adaptation experiments, recent models suggested the existence of multiple learning components, each shows different learning and forgetting properties that may change following initial learning. Nevertheless, the existence of these components in rhythmic movements with other effectors, such as during locomotor adaptation, has not yet been studied. Here, we study savings in locomotor adaptation in two experiments; in the first, subjects adapted to speed perturbations during walking on a split-belt treadmill, briefly adapted to a counter-perturbation and then readapted. In a second experiment, subjects readapted after a prolonged period of washout of initial adaptation. In both experiments we find clear evidence for increased learning rates (savings) during readaptation. We show that the basic error-based multiple timescales linear state space model is not sufficient to explain savings during locomotor adaptation. Instead, we show that locomotor adaptation leads to changes in learning parameters, so that learning rates are faster during readaptation. Interestingly, we find an intersubject correlation between the slow learning component in initial adaptation and the fast learning component in the readaptation phase, suggesting an underlying mechanism for savings. Together, these findings suggest that savings in locomotion and in reaching may share common computational and neuronal mechanisms; both are driven by the slow learning component and are likely to depend on cortical plasticity.

  7. Transient scenarios for robust climate change adaptation illustrated for water management in The Netherlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haasnoot, M.; Schellekens, J.; Beersma, J. J.; Middelkoop, H.; Kwadijk, J. C. J.

    2015-10-01

    Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions across a range of futures. Time-dependent climate scenarios are commonly used in mitigation studies. However, despite the dynamic nature of adaptation, most scenarios for local or regional decision making on climate adaptation are static ‘endpoint’ projections. This paper describes the development and use of transient (time-dependent) scenarios by means of a case on water management in the Netherlands. Relevant boundary conditions (sea level, precipitation and evaporation) were constructed by generating an ensemble of synthetic time-series with a rainfall generator and a transient delta change method. Climate change impacted river flows were then generated with a hydrological simulation model for the Rhine basin. The transient scenarios were applied in model simulations and game experiments. We argue that there are at least three important assets of using transient scenarios for supporting robust climate adaptation: (1) raise awareness about (a) the implications of climate variability and climate change for decision making and (b) the difficulty of finding proof of climate change in relevant variables for water management; (2) assessment of when to adapt by identifying adaptation tipping points which can then be used to explore adaptation pathways, and (3) identification of triggers for climate adaptation.

  8. Going beyond mitigation : the urgent need to include adaptation measures to combat climate change in China

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jeffery, Michael I; He, Xiangbai

    2012-01-01

    Mitigation and adaptation as responses to climate change - China's progress in mitigating climate change - distinction between mitigation and adaptation in relation to climate change - China's current...

  9. Small Scale Farmers' Perception and Adaptation to Climate Change ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Tree cutting (50.7%) and sin (45.7%) are the perceived leading causes of climate change. Farmers mostly engage in change in planting date (97.8%), tree planting (77.5%) and crop diversification (70.3) in response to climate change. Inadequate money (70.3%) is the leading constraint to adaptation. There is need for ...

  10. Climate Change Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation in the ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate Change Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation in the Lowland and Wetland Areas of Delta State, Nigeria. Project Abstract. Climate change has huge implications for Nigeria and for the rest of the world. This project will enhance knowledge of the key drivers of climate change by creating the Niger Delta regional ...

  11. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  12. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, Levi D.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Anderson, Jamie D.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Townsley, Edwin S.; Harrison, Alan; Pruitt, Tom

    2009-04-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios.

  13. Technologies for adaptation to climate change. Examples from the agricultural and water sectors in Lebanon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte; Stephan, Jean

    2015-01-01

    for integrating adaptation technologies into the planning and implementation of on-going and future projects. Based on local-level data from a technology needs assessment project in Lebanon, this paper presents two examples of the economic feasibility of implementing adaptation technologies in the agricultural......Increasing attention is being given to climate technologies on the international climate change agenda, not least in the agricultural sector and water sectors, and to technologies for adaptation. However investments in technology-based adaptation (seeds, dams, irrigation, etc.) are complicated...

  14. Adaptation to Climate Change: Barriers in the Turkish Local Context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osman Balaban

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is one of the greatest environmental challenges that we face today. A certain level of climate change is now unavoidable. Along with mitigation efforts to curb further global warming, we have to take actions to adapt to the changing climatic conditions. Cities are on the front lines of climate change impacts. Therefore, the role of cities in climate change adaptation has been widely acknowledged in the last two decades. There are various obstacles that prevent city governments to develop adaptation policies. While some of these obstacles are universal, some of them are context-specific. Based on the review of key policy documents and interviews with public officials, this paper focuses on analyzing the main barriers that prevent Turkish cities to develop and implement effective adaptation policies. The research results indicate that cities in Turkey face very similar barriers with their international counterparts in adaptation policymaking. Among the main barriers in the Turkish local context are lack of institutional and technical capacity as well as awareness and coordination problems among actors of climate policy. Due to such barriers, “municipal voluntarism”, which mostly leads to voluntary and spontaneous actions, is the prevailing approach to climate policy development in Turkish cities. A series of reforms should be enacted by the central government to help cities overcome the barriers to climate change adaptation.

  15. Adaptation to climate change in France; L'adaptation au changement climatique en France

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-03-15

    This report first comments some data and facts illustrating climate change. It discusses its various impacts (extreme meteorological events, dramatic impacts on ecosystems with the possible disappearance of some vegetal and animal species, crisis regarding food resources, health risks, population migrations notably because of sea level rise), and briefly evokes these impacts in France. It outlines the need for adaptation and describes the different adaptation principles: reduction of vulnerability, and anticipation of changes and of their impacts. It comments how adaptation and mitigation are two complementary approaches. It presents the French State strategy with its national adaptation strategy, its national adaptation plan, the mandatory elaboration of regional schemes for climate, air and energy, and the action of local communities

  16. Technologies for climate change adaptation. The water sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopez, T. De (ed.) (UNEP Risoe Centre, Roskilde (Denmark)); Elliott, M.; Armstrong, A.; Lobuglio, J.; Bartram, J. (The Water Institute at the Univ. of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC (United States))

    2011-04-15

    This guidebook aims to provide expert information on the technologies most relevant for climate change adaptation in the water sector in developing countries. It is meant to be a practical tool for use by a broad range of stakeholders, including those in governmental agencies, water utilities, community water boards, non-governmental organizations, and private sector companies. Adaptation is an essential element of human response to climate change. The adverse impacts of climate change on the water sector will be experienced worldwide and are often projected to be most severe in resource-poor countries. Therefore, it is necessary to have access to a diverse array of adaptation technologies and practices that are appropriate and affordable in various contexts. The scale of these adaptation technologies/practices should range from the individual household level (e.g. household water treatment), to the community scale (e.g. rainwater collection in small reservoirs), to large facilities that can benefit a city or region (e.g. a desalination plant). The guidebook first reviews the projected impacts of climate change on the water sector. It then addresses the role of adaptation in the water sector and six typologies under which available strategies are categorized. Eleven technologies and practices are given detailed treatment in this guidebook and four others are covered briefly. While these do not constitute all of the adaptation technologies available in the water sector, they do represent many of the most important adaptation technologies for developing countries. For each of the 11 adaptation technologies and practices, the following are addressed: basic description, contribution to climate change and development, institutional and capacity building requirements, costs, barriers and opportunities for implementation, and extensive reference to external resources and case studies. The practical steps and appropriate contexts for implementation are covered in the

  17. Implementing Culture Change in Nursing Homes: An Adaptive Leadership Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corazzini, Kirsten; Twersky, Jack; White, Heidi K; Buhr, Gwendolen T; McConnell, Eleanor S; Weiner, Madeline; Colón-Emeric, Cathleen S

    2015-08-01

    To describe key adaptive challenges and leadership behaviors to implement culture change for person-directed care. The study design was a qualitative, observational study of nursing home staff perceptions of the implementation of culture change in each of 3 nursing homes. We conducted 7 focus groups of licensed and unlicensed nursing staff, medical care providers, and administrators. Questions explored perceptions of facilitators and barriers to culture change. Using a template organizing style of analysis with immersion/crystallization, themes of barriers and facilitators were coded for adaptive challenges and leadership. Six key themes emerged, including relationships, standards and expectations, motivation and vision, workload, respect of personhood, and physical environment. Within each theme, participants identified barriers that were adaptive challenges and facilitators that were examples of adaptive leadership. Commonly identified challenges were how to provide person-directed care in the context of extant rules or policies or how to develop staff motivated to provide person-directed care. Implementing culture change requires the recognition of adaptive challenges for which there are no technical solutions, but which require reframing of norms and expectations, and the development of novel and flexible solutions. Managers and administrators seeking to implement person-directed care will need to consider the role of adaptive leadership to address these adaptive challenges. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. Implementing Culture Change in Nursing Homes: An Adaptive Leadership Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corazzini, Kirsten; Twersky, Jack; White, Heidi K.; Buhr, Gwendolen T.; McConnell, Eleanor S.; Weiner, Madeline; Colón-Emeric, Cathleen S.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose of the Study: To describe key adaptive challenges and leadership behaviors to implement culture change for person-directed care. Design and Methods: The study design was a qualitative, observational study of nursing home staff perceptions of the implementation of culture change in each of 3 nursing homes. We conducted 7 focus groups of licensed and unlicensed nursing staff, medical care providers, and administrators. Questions explored perceptions of facilitators and barriers to culture change. Using a template organizing style of analysis with immersion/crystallization, themes of barriers and facilitators were coded for adaptive challenges and leadership. Results: Six key themes emerged, including relationships, standards and expectations, motivation and vision, workload, respect of personhood, and physical environment. Within each theme, participants identified barriers that were adaptive challenges and facilitators that were examples of adaptive leadership. Commonly identified challenges were how to provide person-directed care in the context of extant rules or policies or how to develop staff motivated to provide person-directed care. Implications: Implementing culture change requires the recognition of adaptive challenges for which there are no technical solutions, but which require reframing of norms and expectations, and the development of novel and flexible solutions. Managers and administrators seeking to implement person-directed care will need to consider the role of adaptive leadership to address these adaptive challenges. PMID:24451896

  19. A Framework for Spatial Assessment of Local Level Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity to Extreme Heat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilhelmi, O.; Hayden, M.; Harlan, S.; Ruddell, D.; Komatsu, K.; England, B.; Uejio, C.

    2008-12-01

    Changing climate is predicted to increase the intensity and impacts of heat waves prompting the need to develop preparedness and adaptation strategies that reduce societal vulnerability. Central to understanding societal vulnerability, is adaptive capacity, the potential of a system or population to modify its features/behaviors so as to better cope with existing and anticipated stresses and fluctuations. Adaptive capacity influences adaptation, the actual adjustments made to cope with the impacts from current and future hazardous heat events. Understanding societal risks, vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity to extreme heat events and climate change requires an interdisciplinary approach that includes information about weather and climate, the natural and built environment, social processes and characteristics, interactions with the stakeholders, and an assessment of community vulnerability. This project presents a framework for an interdisciplinary approach and a case study that explore linkages between quantitative and qualitative data for a more comprehensive understanding of local level vulnerability and adaptive capacity to extreme heat events in Phoenix, Arizona. In this talk, we will present a methodological framework for conducting collaborative research on societal vulnerability and adaptive capacity on a local level that includes integration of household surveys into a quantitative spatial assessment of societal vulnerability. We highlight a collaborative partnership among researchers, community leaders and public health officials. Linkages between assessment of local adaptive capacity and development of regional climate change adaptation strategies will be discussed.

  20. The New England Climate Adaptation Project: Enhancing Local Readiness to Adapt to Climate Change through Role-Play Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rumore, D.; Kirshen, P. H.; Susskind, L.

    2014-12-01

    Despite scientific consensus that the climate is changing, local efforts to prepare for and manage climate change risks remain limited. How we can raise concern about climate change risks and enhance local readiness to adapt to climate change's effects? In this presentation, we will share the lessons learned from the New England Climate Adaptation Project (NECAP), a participatory action research project that tested science-based role-play simulations as a tool for educating the public about climate change risks and simulating collective risk management efforts. NECAP was a 2-year effort involving the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the Consensus Building Institute, the National Estuarine Research Reserve System, and four coastal New England municipalities. During 2012-2013, the NECAP team produced downscaled climate change projections, a summary risk assessment, and a stakeholder assessment for each partner community. Working with local partners, we used these assessments to create a tailored, science-based role-play simulation for each site. Through a series of workshops in 2013, NECAP engaged between 115-170 diverse stakeholders and members of the public in each partner municipality in playing the simulation and a follow up conversation about local climate change risks and possible adaptation strategies. Data were collected through before-and-after surveys administered to all workshop participants, follow-up interviews with 25 percent of workshop participants, public opinion polls conducted before and after our intervention, and meetings with public officials. This presentation will report our research findings and explain how science-based role-play simulations can be used to help communicate local climate change risks and enhance local readiness to adapt.

  1. International trade and the adaptation to climate change and variability

    OpenAIRE

    Stephan, Gunter; Schenker, Oliver

    2012-01-01

    This paper has three messages mainly, which are observed in a simple model of climate change, international trade and regional adaptation. First, trade can be viewed as a kind of adaptation to climate change and variability, as trade can help to reduce direct impacts of global climate change on a region’s welfare. In particular, the less affected and the richer nations are, the more they can profit from moderating the impacts of global climate change through trade. Second, if regions are rich...

  2. Benefits of interrelationships between climate change mitigation and adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Lea Ravnkilde; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

    2014-01-01

    and product 2: climate change adaptation. The production possibilities frontier (PPF) summarises the production benefits of the two products. The case study of the paper is the replanting of mangrove forests in the coastal wetland areas of Peam Krasaob Wildlife Sanctuary in Cambodia. The benefits of climate...... benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptation are tested under different climate change scenarios, seeing as the impact and frequency of storms can have a significant effect on coastal wetland areas and the replanting of the mangrove forests and therefore also on the joint benefits of climate change...

  3. IDRC on climate change adaptation | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2011-05-20

    May 20, 2011 ... While the causes of climate change are well understood, relatively little research has been done on how to respond to it. ... water demand and supply in South Africa's Western Cape, smallholder agriculture in Zimbabwe, coastline management in Morocco, and malaria prediction in the East Africa highlands.

  4. an assessment of the acoustic adaptation hypothesis

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Song is critical to territory defence, mate attraction, and both species and individual recognition. According to the Acoustic Adaptation Hypothesis (AAH), habitat structure may exercise a selective force on vocal evolution such that song evolves to minimise the degradation and attenuation of acoustic signals in the particular ...

  5. RADIOTELEMETRY AS A MEANS OF ASSESSING ADAPTATION ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The variation in the degree of thermostability may be due to inherent physiological mechanisms in some species, while in others it may be due to behavioural adaptations. The temperature variations in the hippopotamus with access to water is less than 1°C. (Luck and. Wri~ht 1959). But hippopotamus that are deprived of ...

  6. Application of flood risk modelling in a web-based geospatial decision support tool for coastal adaptation to climate change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Knight, P. J; Prime, T; Brown, J. M; Morrissey, K; Plater, A. J

    2015-01-01

      A pressing problem facing coastal decision makers is the conversion of "high-level" but plausible climate change assessments into an effective basis for climate change adaptation at the local scale...

  7. Indonesian National Policy on Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wahyu Yun Santoso

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available From its arousal, the issue of climate change or global warming has become a distinct global trend setter in multidisciplinary discussion, including in the law perspective. Within legal discourse, the issue of climate change developed rapidly into several aspect, not only about adaptation nor mitigation, especially since the plurality of moral conviction relevant to the climate change facts. As a global matter, each country has the responsibility to adapt and mitigate with its own character and policy. This normative research aims to explore and describe in brief the Indonesian national policy in climate change adaptation and mitigation. Gradually, the contribution of Indonesia is getting firm and solid to the climate change regime, especially after the Bali Action Plan 2007.

  8. Water Security and Climate Change: The Need for Adaptive Governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuula Honkonen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change will bring about unprecedented economic, social and environmental effects, which require both the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation to its adverse effects. Water is the main element through which the impacts of climate change will be felt. Climate change results in increased uncertainties, complexities, stress and potential for conflicts within water management, both among and within states. New forms of governance are needed if the world is to respond to the need to adapt to changes in freshwater supply and to manage water security risks. This paper suggests that adaptive governance should to be main-streamed into all water regulation to ensure the availability of and access to safe water resources and to prevent water-related conflicts. The paper discusses the concept of water security in the context of climate change, the threats that climate change poses to water security, and the concept and implications of adaptive governance as a possible solution. The application of adaptive governance requires a certain degree of institutional and normative flexibility, instruments and institutions that can respond and adapt to changes and manage the level of uncertainty associated with the impacts of climate change. The governance institutions, methods and instruments should be responsive to new information and different kinds of uncertainties, while reflecting the vulnerabilities, capacities, needs and priorities of both societies and ecosystems in the face of climate change. Water security risks could be reduced by increased hydrosolidarity among states, which would present the challenges posed by climate change on water governance and security as primarily an opportunity for new forms of cooperation.

  9. Climate change and waterborne diarrhoea in Northern India: Impact and adaptation strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moors, E.J.; Singh, T.; Siderius, C.; Balakrishnan, S.; Mishra, A.

    2013-01-01

    Although several studies show the vulnerability of human health to climate change, a clear comprehensive quantification of the increased health risks attributable to climate change is lacking. Even more complicated are assessments of adaptation measures for this sector. We discuss the impact of

  10. Mitigation and adaptation cost assessment: Concepts, methods and appropriate use

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-12-31

    The present report on mitigation and adaptation costs addresses the complex issue of identifying synergies and tradeoffs between national priorities and mitigation policies, an issue that requires the integration of various disciplines so as to provide a comprehensive overview of future development trends, available technologies and economic policies. Further, the report suggests a new conceptual framework for treating the social aspects in assessing mitigation and adaptation costs in climate change studies. The impacts of certain sustainability indicators such as employment and poverty reduction on mitigation costing are also discussed in the report. Among the topics to be considered by over 120 distinguished international experts, are the elements of costing methodologies at both the micro and macro levels. Special effort will be made to include the impacts of such parameters as income, equity, poverty, employment and trade. Hence, the contents of this report are highly relevant to the authors of the Third Working Group in the development of the TAR. The report contains a chapter on Special Issues and Problems Related to Cost Assessment for Developing Countries. This chapter will provide valuable background in the further development of these concepts in the TAR because it is an area that has not received due attention in previous work. (au)

  11. Adaptation responses of crops to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seino, Hiroshi [National Inst. of Agro-Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)

    1993-12-31

    Appreciable global climatic responses to increasing levels of atmospheric CO{sub 2} and other trace gases are expected to take place over the next 50 to 80 years. Increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are producing or will produce changes in the climate of the Earth. In particular, numerous efforts of climate modeling project very substantial increase of surface air temperature. In addition to a general warming of the atmosphere, the possibility of increased summer dryness in the continental mid-latitudes has been suggested on the basis of both historical analogues and some General Circulation Model (GCM) studies. There are three types of effect of climatic change on agriculture: (1) the physiological (direct) effect of elevated levels of atmospheric CO{sub 2} on crop plants and weeds, (2) the effect of changes in parameters of climate (e.g., temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation) on plants and animals, and (3) the effects of climate-related rises in sea-level on land use. The direct effects of elevated CO{sub 2} are on photosynthesis and respiration and thereby on growth, and there are additional effects of increased CO{sub 2} on development, yield quality and stomatal aperture and water use. A doubling of CO{sub 2} increases the instantaneous photosynthetic rate by 30% to 100%, depending on the other environmental conditions, and reduce water requirements of plants by reducing transpiration (per unit leaf area) through reductions in stomatal aperture. A doubling of CO{sub 2} causes partial stomatal closure on both C{sub 3} and C{sub 4} plants (approximately a 40% decrease in aperture). In many experiments this results in reductions of transpiration of about 23% to 46%. However. there is considerable uncertainty over the magnitude of this in natural conditions.

  12. The health technology assessment adaptation toolkit: description and use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Sheila; Chase, Deborah L; Milne, Ruairidh; Cook, Andrew; Hicks, Nicholas J; Rosten, Claire; Payne, Liz; Coles, Suzanne; Bell, Eleanor

    2009-12-01

    Adapting health technology assessment (HTA) reports for different contexts could reduce the need for multiple reports on the same health technology with resultant saving of time and resources. This article describes an instrument, the adaptation toolkit, which has been developed to aid in the process of adaptation of HTA reports. The toolkit was developed by a partnership of HTA agencies and networks from across Europe. The role of the toolkit is to guide the user through the process of selecting possible relevant material from these report(s), assessing the relevance, reliability, and transferability of the material, and adapting it for the desired context. The adaptation toolkit has been developed, it comprises a collection of resources that help the user assess whether data and information in existing HTA reports should and could be adapted for their own setting. The toolkit contains two sections: a preliminary speedy sifting section and the main toolkit. The main toolkit includes five domains: (i) technology use and development, (ii) safety, (iii) effectiveness (including efficacy), (iv) economic evaluation, and (v) organizational aspects. Legal, ethical, and social aspects are beyond the scope of the toolkit. The toolkit is designed for the adaptation of evidence synthesis rather than primary research. The completed current version of the toolkit contains checklists and resources to aid in the adaptation of HTA reports. This collection of resources is available for use by all HTA agencies and can be accessed at: http://www.eunethta.net/upload/WP5/EUnetHTA_HTA_Adaptation_Toolkit_October08.pdf..

  13. Data Requirements for Developing Adaptations to Climate Variability and Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Basher, Reid E. [National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), P.O. Box 14 901, Wellington (New Zealand)

    1999-07-01

    An extensive foundation of high quality data and information on the climate and on the biological, environmental and social systems affected by climate is required in order to understand the climate impact processes involved, to develop new adaptation practices, and to subsequently implement these practices. Experience of the impacts of current and past variability of climate and sea level is a prime source of information. Many practices are in use to reduce climate impacts, for example in engineering design, agricultural risk management and climate prediction services, though their roles as adaptations to climate change are not widely appreciated. While there are good data sets on some factors and in some regions, in many cases the databases are inadequate and there are few data sets on adaptation-specific quantities such as vulnerability, resilience and adaptation effectiveness. Current international action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) pays little attention to adaptation and its information requirements. Furthermore there are trends toward reduced data gathering and to restrictions on access to data sets, especially arising from cost and commercialisation pressures. To effectively respond to the changes in climate that are now inevitable, governments will need to more clearly identify adaptation as a central feature of climate change policy and make a renewed shared commitment to collecting and freely exchanging the necessary data. 12 refs.

  14. Climate change adaptation benefits of potential conservation partnerships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, William B; Theobald, David M

    2018-01-01

    We evaluate the world terrestrial network of protected areas (PAs) for its partnership potential in responding to climate change. That is, if a PA engaged in collaborative, trans-boundary management of species, by investing in conservation partnerships with neighboring areas, what climate change adaptation benefits might accrue? We consider core tenets of conservation biology related to protecting large areas with high environmental heterogeneity and low climate change velocity and ask how a series of biodiversity adaptation indicators change across spatial scales encompassing potential PA and non-PA partners. Less than 1% of current world terrestrial PAs equal or exceed the size of established and successful conservation partnerships. Partnering at this scale would increase the biodiversity adaptation indicators by factors up to two orders of magnitude, compared to a null model in which each PA is isolated. Most partnership area surrounding PAs is comprised of non-PAs (70%), indicating the importance of looking beyond the current network of PAs when promoting climate change adaptation. Given monumental challenges with PA-based species conservation in the face of climate change, partnerships provide a logical and achievable strategy for helping areas adapt. Our findings identify where strategic partnering efforts in highly vulnerable areas of the world may prove critical in safeguarding biodiversity.

  15. Climate change effects on the biodiversity of the BES islands : assessment of the possible consequences for the marine and terrestrial ecosystems of the Dutch Antilles and the options for adaptation measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Debrot, A.O.; Bugter, R.J.F.

    2010-01-01

    Due to their vulnerability and low capacity to adapt, the impact of climate change on small island nations will be far larger compared to larger countries. The Dutch BES islands (Bonaire, St. Eustatius and Saba) form part of the Caribbean global biodiversity hotspot area. The leeward Dutch islands

  16. Adapting California Water Management to Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanak, E.; Lund, J. R.

    2010-12-01

    institutional constraints limit the ability to change reservoir operations, raise funds for flood works, prevent development in flood-prone areas, and encourage use of flood insurance. Needed reforms include forward-looking reservoir operation planning and floodplain mapping, less restrictive rules for raising local flood assessments, and improved public information on flood risks. For water quality, an urgent priority is better science. Climate change is likely to have far-reaching implications for water regulations and management, but we remain at an embryonic state of knowledge about these future changes. We will have to make policy, planning, and operational decisions without perfect knowledge of how much the climate is changing. Although local agencies are central players in all aspects of water management, adaptation will require strong-willed state leadership to shape institutions, incentives, and regulations capable of responding to change. Cooperation of federal agencies will be essential, given the important roles they play in flood management, environmental regulation, and water supply, particularly in the Delta.

  17. Adaptive Assessment of Student's Knowledge in Programming Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatzopoulou, D. I.; Economides, A. A.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents Programming Adaptive Testing (PAT), a Web-based adaptive testing system for assessing students' programming knowledge. PAT was used in two high school programming classes by 73 students. The question bank of PAT is composed of 443 questions. A question is classified in one out of three difficulty levels. In PAT, the levels of…

  18. Climate change and health: impacts, vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjellstrom, Tord; Weaver, Haylee J

    2009-01-01

    Global climate change is progressing and health impacts have been observed in a number of countries, including Australia. The main health impacts will be due to direct heat exposure, extreme weather, air pollution, reduced local food production, food- and vectorborne infectious diseases and mental stress. The issue is one of major public health importance. Adaptation to reduce the effects of climate change involves many different sectors to minimise negative health outcomes. Wide-scale mitigation is also required, in order to reduce the effects of climate change. In addition, future urban design must be modified to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change. Strategies for mitigation and adaptation can create co-benefits for both individual and community health, by reducing non-climate-related health hazard exposures and by encouraging health promoting behaviours and lifestyles.

  19. Improving Water Governance and Climate Change Adaptation in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Improving Water Governance and Climate Change Adaptation in Cambodia. Cambodia's Tonle Sap Lake is the largest freshwater lake in Southeast Asia. It is estimated that up to half of Cambodia's population benefits directly or indirectly from the lake's resources. Over the next few decades, climate change and new ...

  20. Water security and climate change: The need for adaptive governance

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper suggests that adaptive governance should to be main-streamed into all water regulation to ensure the availability of and access to safe water resources and to prevent water-related conflicts. The paper discusses the concept of water security in the context of climate change, the threats that climate change poses ...

  1. climate change adaptation strategies by local farmers in kilombero

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    Abstract. This article examines current adaptation strategies developed by local farmers against climate change effects in Kilombero District. Research questions guided the study include; what are the past and current climatic stresses? What are local farmers' perception on climate change and response to the adverse.

  2. Adapting fishing policies to address climate change in West Africa

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    CCAA

    Led by the Dakar-based organization Environment and Development Action in the Third World (ENDA), the project “Adapting. Fishing Policy to Climate Change in West Africa” (which goes by the French acronym APPECCAO) aims to integrate an improved understanding of climate change's potential impacts and options for ...

  3. Reconciling approaches to climate change adaptation for Colombian agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Khoury, C.K.

    2013-01-01

    The projected impact of climate change on agro-ecological systems is considered widespread and significant, particularly across the global tropics. As in many other countries, adaptation to climate change is likely to be an important challenge for Colombian agricultural systems. In a recent study, a

  4. Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies Used by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    E M IGBOKWE

    flooding had increased which is an indication of climate change. Reduction in the use of generator to get power in the farmers' houses (69.1%) and crop rotation practices (67.3%) were mitigation and adaptation strategies employed by the farmers against the effect of climate change. The study recommends that government ...

  5. Climate change and adaptation strategies to water resources in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate change and adaptation strategies to water resources in some parts of Sudano-Sahellian zone of Nigeria. ... Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management. Journal Home ... This study examines the impact of climate change on water resources in some parts of the Sudano-Sahelian zone of Nigeria.

  6. Crop Farmers' Perception of and Adaptation to Climate Change in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Food insecurity is a big challenge which Nigeria is currently battling with. This is compounded by the negative effects of climate change on agricultural production, and by extension, rural development. This work was therefore designed to ascertain crop farmers' perception of, and adaptation to climate change in Orlu ...

  7. Inland Aquaculture and Adaptation to Climate Change in Northern ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    However, research on climate change and aquaculture is limited compared to many other agricultural activities. This project focuses on tilapia grown in farm ponds or floating cages in rivers and reservoirs in northern Thailand. It explores both how aquaculture practices should adapt to changing climatic conditions and the ...

  8. Public health adaptation to climate change in OECD countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Austin, Stephanie E.; Biesbroek, Robbert; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Ford, James D.; Parker, Stephen; Fleury, Manon D.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a major challenge facing public health. National governments play a key role in public health adaptation to climate change, but there are competing views on what responsibilities and obligations this will—or should—include in different nations. This study aims to: (1) examine

  9. Agriculture in a changing climate: impacts and adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reilly, J.; Baethgen, W.; Chege, F.E.; Geijn, van de S.C.; Lin Erda,; Iglesias, A.; Kenny, G.; Patterson, D.; Rogasik, J.; Rötter, R.; Rosenzweig, C.; Sombroek, W.; Westbrook, J.; Bachelet, D.; Brklacich, M.; Dämmgen, U.; Howden, M.

    1996-01-01

    This chapter deals with sensitivities, adaptive capacity and vulnerability of agriculture to climate change. It covers: the direct and indirect effects of changes in climate and atmospheric constituents on crop yield, soils, agricultural pests, and livestock; estimates of yield and production

  10. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Blue Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson

    2017-01-01

    The Blue Mountains Adaptation Partnership was developed to identify climate change issues relevant to resource management in the Blue Mountains region, to find solutions that can minimize negative effects of climate change, and to facilitate transition of diverse ecosystems to a warmer climate. Partnering organizations included three national forests (Malheur, Umatilla...

  11. Forests and climate change adaptation policies in Cameroon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bele, M.Y.; Somorin, O.A.; Sonwa, D.J.; Nkem, J.N.; Locatelli, B.

    2011-01-01

    Nowadays, adaptation has become a key focus of the scientific and policy-making communities and is a major area of discussion in the multilateral climate change process. As climate change is projected to hit the poorest the hardest, it is especially important for developing countries to pay

  12. Climate change adaptation strategies by local farmers in Kilombero ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article examines current adaptation strategies developed by local farmers against climate change effects in Kilombero District. Research questions guided the study include; what are the past and current climatic stresses? What are local farmers' perception on climate change and response to the adverse climatic ...

  13. Deltas, Vulnerability, and Climate Change: Migration as an Adaptation

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Deltas, Vulnerability, and Climate Change: Migration as an Adaptation. Deltas in Africa and South Asia have some of the highest population densities in the world. Many residents along the deltas live in poverty and depend on livelihoods that are sensitive to a changing climate. This research project will examine the issue.

  14. Perceptions and adaptation to climate change and variability by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Kenya comprises of 83% arid and semi-arid land mainly suited to extensive livestock production. Communities living in the semi-arid areas have been affected by serious effects of climate change and variability. A study was carried out to evaluate farmer perceptions and adaptation to climate change in Naro Moru and ...

  15. Barriers to Climate Change Adaptation Among Farming Households ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate change is perhaps the most serious environmental threat to the fight against hunger, malnutrition, disease and poverty in Africa, essentially because of its impact on agricultural productivity. The objective of this paper was to identify the major barriers to climate change adaptation among smallholder farmers of ...

  16. Building up climate change adaptation expertise in Africa | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    From 2006-2012, 212 organizations participated in research supported by the Climate Change Adaptation in Africa (CCAA) program. Despite the lack of African institutions working on climate change issues prior to the CCAA program, some 89% of these organizations are based in Africa, and now represent one of CCAA's ...

  17. Climate change adaptation strategies by small-scale farmers in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate change is a great environmental challenge facing humanity today. In Yatta District, residents report frequent crop failures, water shortages and relief food has become a frequent feature of their life. This study examines the adaptation strategies to climate change adopted by the dry-land farming communities in Yatta ...

  18. Adaptation to Increase Resilience to Climate Change in Ethiopian ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Adaptation to Increase Resilience to Climate Change in Ethiopian Agriculture. Ethiopia's agriculture sector contributes 42 to 45% of its gross domestic product and employs more than 80% of the population. However, the sector remains fragile and vulnerable to climate change. This project will provide knowledge to help ...

  19. Partnering for climate change adaptations by Dutch housing associations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roders, M.J.

    2015-01-01

    It is globally recognised that action needs to be taken to address the negative effects of climate change. These effects, such as more extreme rainfall, may threaten the quality of life of those living in urban environments. Increasing the implementation of climate change adaptation measures is

  20. From Research to Policy: Linking Climate Change Adaptation to ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    From Research to Policy: Linking Climate Change Adaptation to Sustainable Agriculture. Research on climate change and its impact on the vulnerable is fairly well developed in Southern Africa. ... Five world-class research teams are working to develop vaccines for neglected livestock diseases in the Global South.

  1. Perceptions of climate change and adaptation to microclimate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Perceptions of climate change and adaptation to microclimate change and variability among smallholder farmers in Mhakwe Communal Area, Manicaland province, Zimbabwe. ... There is also need to scale-up programmes on capacity building with regards to dissemination of analysed weather and climate data. Key Words: ...

  2. Adapting to Climate Change in Urbanizing Watersheds | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Adapting to Climate Change in Urbanizing Watersheds ... Climate change is likely to increase climate variability, further aggravating water-related stresses, especially for marginalized groups. The process of rapid ... Six world-class research teams to investigate overcoming therapeutic resistance in high fatality cancers.

  3. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    A changing climate predicting hotter, dryer weather is likely to further affect urban and rural populations, including farmers and wine producers, which provide a major source of employment. A climate change adaptation strategy for the Basin is a priority for the Chilean Ministry of Environment. To support the development of ...

  4. Financing an efficient adaptation programme to climate change: A contingent valuation method tested in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Banna Hasanul

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses farmers’ willingness to pay for an efficient adaptation programme to climate change for Malaysian agriculture. We used the contingent valuation method to determine the monetary assessment of farmers’ preferences for an adaptation programme. We distributed a structured questionnaire to farmers in Selangor, Malaysia. Based on the survey, 74% of respondents are willing to pay for the adaptation programme with several factors such as socio-economic and motivational factors exerting greater influences over their willingness to pay. However, a significant number of respondents are not willing to pay for the adaptation programme. The Malaysian government, along with social institutions, banks, NGOs, and media could come up with fruitful awareness programmes to motivate financing the programme. Financial institutions such as banks, insurances, leasing firms, etc. along with government and farmers could also donate a substantial portion for the adaptation programme as part of their corporate social responsibility (CSR.

  5. Climate Change in Central Taiwan: Impact and Adaptive Capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Chih-Chao; Chang, Liang-Cheng; Tsai, Chan-Ming

    2013-04-01

    This study aims to evaluate the spatial vulnerability distribution of water resources and propose the adaptive strategies for centeral Taiwan. The main tasks of this study are future water demand estimation, Rainfall trend analysis, climate change impact analysis and adaptive strategy proposing. Future water demand estimation considers the impact of GDP and temperature on domestic use water demand. MK Test, MWP Test and KW Test are used to analyze the variation trend of precipitation, intensity and drought day. The water allocation simulation model build by Vensim are used to analyze climate change impact. Based on impact analysis result, multi-criteria analysis is used to optimize optimal adaptive strategies combination. For Miaoli and Nantou, the furture demand (2031) can be fulfilled under Tiahuahu reservoir and Niaozueitan artificial lake is finished. It is not necessary to propose adaptive strategy. For Taichung, the optimal adaptive combinations for A1B worse case are Water Saving and Futian Domestic Wastewater Treatment Plant. For Changhua, the optimal adaptive strategy for A1B worse case is seawater desalinization. For Yunlin, the optimal adaptive combinations for A1B worse case are Water Saving and tap water pipe replacement.

  6. Optimal adaptation to extreme rainfalls under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosbjerg, Dan

    2017-04-01

    More intense and frequent rainfalls have increased the number of urban flooding events in recent years, prompting adaptation efforts. Economic optimization is considered an efficient tool to decide on the design level for adaptation. The costs associated with a flooding to the T-year level and the annual capital and operational costs of adapting to this level are described with log-linear relations. The total flooding costs are developed as the expected annual damage of flooding above the T-year level plus the annual capital and operational costs for ensuring no flooding below the T-year level. The value of the return period T that corresponds to the minimum of the sum of these costs will then be the optimal adaptation level. The change in climate, however, is expected to continue in the next century, which calls for expansion of the above model. The change can be expressed in terms of a climate factor (the ratio between the future and the current design level) which is assumed to increase in time. This implies increasing costs of flooding in the future for many places in the world. The optimal adaptation level is found for immediate as well as for delayed adaptation. In these cases the optimum is determined by considering the net present value of the incurred costs during a sufficiently long time span. Immediate as well as delayed adaptation is considered.

  7. Population and reproductive health in National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) for climate change in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutunga, Clive; Hardee, Karen

    2010-12-01

    This paper reviews 44 National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) to assess the NAPA process and identify the range of interventions included in countries' priority adaptation actions and highlight how population issues and reproductive health/family planning (RH/FP) are addressed as part of the adaptation agenda. A majority of the 44 NAPAs identify rapid population growth as a key component of vulnerability to climate change impacts. However, few chose to prioritise NAPA funds for family planning/reproductive health programmes. The paper emphasizes the need to translate the recognition of population pressure as a factor related to countries' ability to adapt to climate change into relevant project activities. Such projects should include access to RH/FP, in addition to other strategies such as girls' education and women's empowerment that lead to lower fertility. Attention to population and integrated strategies should be central and aligned to longer-term national adaptation plans and strategies.

  8. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Dawson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment priorities for adaptation. The three examples explore interdependencies that arise from (1 climate loading dependence; (2 mediation of two climate impacts by physical processes operating over large spatial extents; and, (3 multiple risks that are influenced by shared climatic and socio-economic drivers. Drawing upon learning from these case studies, and other work, a framework for the analysis and consideration of interdependencies in climate change risk assessment has been developed. This is an iterative learning loop that involves defining the system, scoping interaction mechanisms, applying appropriate modelling tools, identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities, and assessing the performance of adaptation interventions.

  9. The use of and obstacles to social learning in climate change adaptation initiatives in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shakespear Mudombi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Global environmental change will have major impacts on ecosystems and human livelihoods while challenging the adaptive capacity of individuals and communities. Social learning, an ongoing adaptive process of knowledge generation, reflection and synthesis, may enhance people’s awareness about climate change and its impacts, with positive outcomes for their adaptive capacity. The objectives of this study were to assess the prevalence of factors promoting social learning in climate change adaptation initiatives in South Africa. An online survey was used to obtain the views of decision makers in government and non-governmental organisations about the presence of personal factors and organisational factors that promote social learning. Descriptive analysis was used to assess these issues. The findings provide some evidence of social learning in climate change adaptation projects in South Africa, with the majority of respondents indicating that personal social learning indicators were present. Mechanisms for improved conflict resolution were, however, less prevalent. The organisational and governance-related barriers to implementation also presented significant challenges. Some of the main organisational barriers were short timeframes for implementing projects, inadequate financial resources, political interference, shortcomings in governance systems and lack of knowledge and expertise in organisations. There is a need for organisations to promote social learning by ensuring that their organisational environment and governance structures are conducive for their employees to embrace social learning. This will help contribute to the overall success of climate change adaptation initiatives.

  10. Resilience of historic cities and adaptation to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra Keller

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In recent years the interest for the resilience of cities and historic urban centers is growing. Climate change is one of the challenges of this century and it is having a great impact on the society and economy of cities and buildings. According to climate change scenarios cities will have to face frequent extreme events in the future years, like droughts, heat waves, abundant precipitations or snowfalls. However, there are little studies that try to analyze the effects from different points of view and to find a solution that can have an impact on buildings, the town environment as well as on the well being of the society. Therefore this article proposes a complex assessment and intervention strategy based on the case study of Oravita, a small mountain town from the western part of Romania, that will improve the resilience of the town trough a multidisciplinary approach. The aim is to understand and to adapt the historic town to the contemporary climatic needs by an interdisciplinary holistic understanding of the context through different professional views: architectural, landscape architecture, historical, engineering, social, economical and geographical.

  11. Adaptable habitablity, niche filling and exo-climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagai, Perets

    2015-07-01

    Planetary orbits may change due to gravitational perturbations by external bodies. Such changes can occur both on short and long timescales, and give rise to significant changes in the planetary climate and habitability. Such changes may render the climate inhabitable for any original pre-existing organisms. However, if the climate change timescale is longer than the timescale for organism genetic adaptation over several generations, the population of pre- existing organisms may evolve and adapt to the new conditions. This raises the possibility for the existence of planets in which life formed and evolved under favorable conditions, and then adapted to extreme conditions once significant climate-change occured. Such planets may therefore appear today as having too-extreme conditions as to allow for the emergence of life, even though life could have formed at ealier epoch at which time the planet climate differed. One can therefore discuss the possibility of "adaptable habitability", which relies not only on the current conditions but on the climate history and the dynamics of the planetary system. Moreover, once life emerges and evolves to the stage in which rapid adaptababilty is possible, organisms may adapt as to fill extreme environmental nches (e.g. extremophiles on Earth). Once climate-change leads to overall extreme planetary conditions, such originally extreme- niche filling organisms can prevail and occupy the main environments of the planets, where as such extreme planetary conditions, if they existed primordially, wouldn't have allowed for the emergence of life to begin with. We discuss these issues, and provide detailed planetary dynamics examples for such adaptable habitability to occur.

  12. Climate Change: Seed Production and Options for Adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John G. Hampton

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Food security depends on seed security and the international seed industry must be able to continue to deliver the quantities of quality seed required for this purpose. Abiotic stress resulting from climate change, particularly elevated temperature and water stress, will reduce seed yield and quality. Options for the seed industry to adapt to climate change include moving sites for seed production, changing sowing date, and the development of cultivars with traits which allow them to adapt to climate change conditions. However, the ability of seed growers to make these changes is directly linked to the seed system. In the formal seed system operating in developed countries, implementation will be reasonably straight forward. In the informal system operating in developing countries, the current seed production challenges including supply failing to meet demand and poor seed quality will increase with changing climates.

  13. Managing for climate change on protected areas: An adaptive management decision making framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanner-McAllister, Sherri L; Rhodes, Jonathan; Hockings, Marc

    2017-12-15

    Current protected area management is becoming more challenging with advancing climate change and current park management techniques may not be adequate to adapt for effective management into the future. The framework presented here provides an adaptive management decision making process to assist protected area managers with adapting on-park management to climate change. The framework sets out a 4 step process. One, a good understanding of the park's context within climate change. Secondly, a thorough understanding of the park management systems including governance, planning and management systems. Thirdly, a series of management options set out as an accept/prevent change style structure, including a systematic assessment of those options. The adaptive approaches are defined as acceptance of anthropogenic climate change impact and attempt to adapt to a new climatic environment or prevention of change and attempt to maintain current systems under new climatic variations. Last, implementation and monitoring of long term trends in response to ecological responses to management interventions and assessing management effectiveness. The framework addresses many issues currently with park management in dealing with climate change including the considerable amount of research focussing on 'off-reserve' strategies, and threats and stress focused in situ park management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. A Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Management of ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sea level rise is causing shoreline erosion, increased coastal flooding, and marsh vulnerability to the impact of storms. Coastal marshes provide flood abatement, carbon and nutrient sequestration, water quality maintenance, and habitat for fish, shellfish, and wildlife, including species of concern, such as the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus). We present a climate change adaptation strategy (CCAS) adopted by scientific, management, and policy stakeholders for managing coastal marshes and enhancing system resiliency. A common adaptive management approach previously used for restoration projects was modified to identify climate-related vulnerabilities and plan climate change adaptive actions. As an example of implementation of the CCAS, we describe the stakeholder plans and management actions the US Fish and Wildlife Service and partners developed to build coastal resiliency in the Narrow River Estuary, RI, in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy. When possible, an experimental BACI (before-after, control-impact) design, described as pre- and post-sampling at the impact site and one or more control sites, was incorporated into the climate change adaptation and implementation plans. Specific climate change adaptive actions and monitoring plans are described and include shoreline stabilization, restoring marsh drainage, increasing marsh elevation, and enabling upland marsh migration. The CCAS provides a framework and methodology for successfully managing coa

  15. Sensorimotor synchronization with tempo-changing auditory sequences: Modeling temporal adaptation and anticipation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Steen, M C Marieke; Jacoby, Nori; Fairhurst, Merle T; Keller, Peter E

    2015-11-11

    The current study investigated the human ability to synchronize movements with event sequences containing continuous tempo changes. This capacity is evident, for example, in ensemble musicians who maintain precise interpersonal coordination while modulating the performance tempo for expressive purposes. Here we tested an ADaptation and Anticipation Model (ADAM) that was developed to account for such behavior by combining error correction processes (adaptation) with a predictive temporal extrapolation process (anticipation). While previous computational models of synchronization incorporate error correction, they do not account for prediction during tempo-changing behavior. The fit between behavioral data and computer simulations based on four versions of ADAM was assessed. These versions included a model with adaptation only, one in which adaptation and anticipation act in combination (error correction is applied on the basis of predicted tempo changes), and two models in which adaptation and anticipation were linked in a joint module that corrects for predicted discrepancies between the outcomes of adaptive and anticipatory processes. The behavioral experiment required participants to tap their finger in time with three auditory pacing sequences containing tempo changes that differed in the rate of change and the number of turning points. Behavioral results indicated that sensorimotor synchronization accuracy and precision, while generally high, decreased with increases in the rate of tempo change and number of turning points. Simulations and model-based parameter estimates showed that adaptation mechanisms alone could not fully explain the observed precision of sensorimotor synchronization. Including anticipation in the model increased the precision of simulated sensorimotor synchronization and improved the fit of model to behavioral data, especially when adaptation and anticipation mechanisms were linked via a joint module based on the notion of joint internal

  16. Guiding climate change adaptation within vulnerable natural resource management systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardsley, Douglas K; Sweeney, Susan M

    2010-05-01

    Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.

  17. Evaluating Successful Livelihood Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change in Southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henny Osbahr

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the success of small-scale farming livelihoods in adapting to climate variability and change. We represent adaptation actions as choices within a response space that includes coping but also longer-term adaptation actions, and define success as those actions which promote system resilience, promote legitimate institutional change, and hence generate and sustain collective action. We explore data on social responses from four regions across South Africa and Mozambique facing a variety of climate risks. The analysis suggests that some collective adaptation actions enhance livelihood resilience to climate change and variability but others have negative spillover effects to other scales. Any assessment of successful adaptation is, however, constrained by the scale of analysis in terms of the temporal and spatial boundaries on the system being investigated. In addition, the diversity of mechanisms by which rural communities in southern Africa adapt to risks suggests that external interventions to assist adaptation will need to be sensitive to the location-specific nature of adaptation.

  18. Climate Change Adaptation Science Activities at NASA Johnson Space Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanov, William L.; Lulla, Kamlesh

    2012-01-01

    The Johnson Space Center (JSC), located in the southeast metropolitan region of Houston, TX is the prime NASA center for human spaceflight operations and astronaut training, but it also houses the unique collection of returned extraterrestrial samples, including lunar samples from the Apollo missions. The Center's location adjacent to Clear Lake and the Clear Creek watershed, an estuary of Galveston Bay, puts it at direct annual risk from hurricanes, but also from a number of other climate-related hazards including drought, floods, sea level rise, heat waves, and high wind events all assigned Threat Levels of 2 or 3 in the most recent NASA Center Disaster/Risk Matrix produced by the Climate Adaptation Science Investigator Working Group. Based on prior CASI workshops at other NASA centers, it is recognized that JSC is highly vulnerable to climate-change related hazards and has a need for adaptation strategies. We will present an overview of prior CASI-related work at JSC, including publication of a climate change and adaptation informational data brochure, and a Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Risks Workshop that was held at JSC in early March 2012. Major outcomes of that workshop that form a basis for work going forward are 1) a realization that JSC is embedded in a regional environmental and social context, and that potential climate change effects and adaptation strategies will not, and should not, be constrained by the Center fence line; 2) a desire to coordinate data collection and adaptation planning activities with interested stakeholders to form a regional climate change adaptation center that could facilitate interaction with CASI; 3) recognition that there is a wide array of basic data (remotely sensed, in situ, GIS/mapping, and historical) available through JSC and other stakeholders, but this data is not yet centrally accessible for planning purposes.

  19. Accelerating Adaptation of Natural Resource Management to Address Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Molly S; McCarthy, Patrick D; Garfin, Gregg; Gori, David; Enquist, Carolyn AF

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Natural resource managers are seeking tools to help them address current and future effects of climate change. We present a model for collaborative planning aimed at identifying ways to adapt management actions to address the effects of climate change in landscapes that cross public and private jurisdictional boundaries. The Southwest Climate Change Initiative (SWCCI) piloted the Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) planning approach at workshops in 4 southwestern U.S. landscapes. This planning approach successfully increased participants’ self-reported capacity to address climate change by providing them with a better understanding of potential effects and guiding the identification of solutions. The workshops fostered cross-jurisdictional and multidisciplinary dialogue on climate change through active participation of scientists and managers in assessing climate change effects, discussing the implications of those effects for determining management goals and activities, and cultivating opportunities for regional coordination on adaptation of management plans. Facilitated application of the ACT framework advanced group discussions beyond assessing effects to devising options to mitigate the effects of climate change on specific species, ecological functions, and ecosystems. Participants addressed uncertainty about future conditions by considering more than one climate-change scenario. They outlined opportunities and identified next steps for implementing several actions, and local partnerships have begun implementing actions and conducting additional planning. Continued investment in adaptation of management plans and actions to address the effects of climate change in the southwestern United States and extension of the approaches used in this project to additional landscapes are needed if biological diversity and ecosystem services are to be maintained in a rapidly changing world. Acelerando la Adaptación del Manejo de Recursos Naturales para

  20. Adapting to Change: The Value of Change Information and Meaning-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Heuvel, Machteld; Demerouti, Evangelia; Bakker, Arnold B.; Schaufeli, Wilmar B.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this 3-wave study is to examine the micro process of how employees adapt to change over time. We combined Conservation of Resources theory with insights from the organizational change literature to study employees in a Dutch police district undergoing reorganization. A model was tested where employee adaptability, operationalized by…

  1. ADAPTIVE CONTROL OF FEED LOAD CHANGES IN ALCOHOL FERMENTATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Folly R.

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available A fed-batch alcohol fermentation on a pilot plant scale with a digital supervisory control system was evaluated as an experimental application case study of an adaptive controller. The verification of intrinsically dynamic variations in the characteristics of the fermentation, observed in previous work, showed the necessity of an adaptive control strategy for controller parameter tuning in order to adjust the changes in the specific rates of consumption, growth and product formation during the process. Satisfactory experimental results were obtained for set-point variations and sugar feed concentration load changes in the manipulated inlet flow to the fermenter

  2. Adaptation services of floodplains and wetlands under transformational climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colloff, Matthew; Lavorel, Sandra; Wise, Russell M; Dunlop, Michael; Overton, Ian C; Williams, Kristen J

    2016-06-01

    Adaptation services are the ecosystem processes and services that benefit people by increasing their ability to adapt to change. Benefits may accrue from existing but newly used services where ecosystems persist or from novel services supplied following ecosystem transformation. Ecosystem properties that enable persistence or transformation are important adaptation services because they support future options. The adaptation services approach can be applied to decisions on trade-offs between currently valued services and benefits from maintaining future options. For example, ecosystem functions and services of floodplains depend on river flows. In those regions of the world where climate change projections are for hotter, drier conditions, floods will be less frequent and floodplains will either persist, though with modified structure and function, or transform to terrestrial (flood-independent) ecosystems. Many currently valued ecosystem services will reduce in supply or become unavailable, but new options are provided by adaptation services. We present a case study from the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, for operationalizing the adaptation services concept for floodplains and wetlands. We found large changes in flow and flood regimes are likely under a scenario of +1.6°C by 2030, even with additional water restored to rivers under the proposed Murray-Darling Basin Plan. We predict major changes to floodplain ecosystems, including contraction of riparian forests and woodlands and expansion of terrestrial, drought-tolerant vegetation communities. Examples of adaptation services under this scenario include substitution of irrigated agriculture with dryland cropping and floodplain grazing; mitigation of damage from rarer, extreme floods; and increased tourism, recreational, and cultural values derived from fewer, smaller wetlands that can be maintained with environmental flows. Management for adaptation services will require decisions on where intervention can

  3. Issues related to adapting assessment practices

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Erna Kinsey

    based approach. .... structed in the form of learning outcomes related to specific per- ... each grade level. These changes in terminology and simplification of concepts have developed into a controversial issue as a result of un- certainties and ...

  4. Health Aspects of Climate Change in Cities with Mediterranean Climate, and Local Adaptation Plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paz, Shlomit; Negev, Maya; Clermont, Alexandra; Green, Manfred S.

    2016-01-01

    Cities with a Mediterranean-type climate (Med-cities) are particularly susceptible to health risks from climate change since they are located in biogeographical hot-spots that experience some of the strongest effects of the changing climate. The study aims to highlight health impacts of climate change in Med-cities, analyze local climate adaptation plans and make adaptation policy recommendations for the Med-city level. We identified five Med-cities with a climate change adaptation plan: Adelaide, Barcelona, Cape Town, Los Angeles and Santiago. Beyond their similar Med-climate features (although Santiago’s are slightly different), the cities have different socio-economic characteristics in various aspects. We analyzed each plan according to how it addresses climate change-related drivers of health impacts among city dwellers. For each driver, we identified the types of policy adaptation tools that address it in the urban climate adaptation plans. The surveyed cities address most of the fundamental climate change-related drivers of risks to human health, including rising temperatures, flooding and drought, but the policy measures to reduce negative impacts vary across cities. We suggest recommendations for Med-cities in various aspects, depending on their local needs and vulnerability challenges: assessment of health risks, extreme events management and long-term adaptation, among others. PMID:27110801

  5. Health Aspects of Climate Change in Cities with Mediterranean Climate, and Local Adaptation Plans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shlomit Paz

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Cities with a Mediterranean-type climate (Med-cities are particularly susceptible to health risks from climate change since they are located in biogeographical hot-spots that experience some of the strongest effects of the changing climate. The study aims to highlight health impacts of climate change in Med-cities, analyze local climate adaptation plans and make adaptation policy recommendations for the Med-city level. We identified five Med-cities with a climate change adaptation plan: Adelaide, Barcelona, Cape Town, Los Angeles and Santiago. Beyond their similar Med-climate features (although Santiago’s are slightly different, the cities have different socio-economic characteristics in various aspects. We analyzed each plan according to how it addresses climate change-related drivers of health impacts among city dwellers. For each driver, we identified the types of policy adaptation tools that address it in the urban climate adaptation plans. The surveyed cities address most of the fundamental climate change-related drivers of risks to human health, including rising temperatures, flooding and drought, but the policy measures to reduce negative impacts vary across cities. We suggest recommendations for Med-cities in various aspects, depending on their local needs and vulnerability challenges: assessment of health risks, extreme events management and long-term adaptation, among others.

  6. Health Aspects of Climate Change in Cities with Mediterranean Climate, and Local Adaptation Plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paz, Shlomit; Negev, Maya; Clermont, Alexandra; Green, Manfred S

    2016-04-21

    Cities with a Mediterranean-type climate (Med-cities) are particularly susceptible to health risks from climate change since they are located in biogeographical hot-spots that experience some of the strongest effects of the changing climate. The study aims to highlight health impacts of climate change in Med-cities, analyze local climate adaptation plans and make adaptation policy recommendations for the Med-city level. We identified five Med-cities with a climate change adaptation plan: Adelaide, Barcelona, Cape Town, Los Angeles and Santiago. Beyond their similar Med-climate features (although Santiago's are slightly different), the cities have different socio-economic characteristics in various aspects. We analyzed each plan according to how it addresses climate change-related drivers of health impacts among city dwellers. For each driver, we identified the types of policy adaptation tools that address it in the urban climate adaptation plans. The surveyed cities address most of the fundamental climate change-related drivers of risks to human health, including rising temperatures, flooding and drought, but the policy measures to reduce negative impacts vary across cities. We suggest recommendations for Med-cities in various aspects, depending on their local needs and vulnerability challenges: assessment of health risks, extreme events management and long-term adaptation, among others.

  7. Rapid adaptive responses to climate change in corals

    KAUST Repository

    Torda, Gergely

    2017-09-01

    Pivotal to projecting the fate of coral reefs is the capacity of reef-building corals to acclimatize and adapt to climate change. Transgenerational plasticity may enable some marine organisms to acclimatize over several generations and it has been hypothesized that epigenetic processes and microbial associations might facilitate adaptive responses. However, current evidence is equivocal and understanding of the underlying processes is limited. Here, we discuss prospects for observing transgenerational plasticity in corals and the mechanisms that could enable adaptive plasticity in the coral holobiont, including the potential role of epigenetics and coral-associated microbes. Well-designed and strictly controlled experiments are needed to distinguish transgenerational plasticity from other forms of plasticity, and to elucidate the underlying mechanisms and their relative importance compared with genetic adaptation.

  8. Adapting Scotland’s forests to climate change using an action expiration chart

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petr, M.; Boerboom, L. G. J.; Ray, D.; van der Veen, A.

    2015-10-01

    The inherent uncertainty of climate change impacts is one of the main challenges for adaptation in environmental management. The lack of knowledge about climate impacts on ecosystem services at high spatial and temporal resolution limits when and what adaptation measures should be taken. We addressed these limits by assessing four ecosystem services—forest production, tree growth, sequestered carbon, and tourism potential—under drought or climate change. To support adaptation, we adapted the existing concept of ‘dynamic adaptive policy pathways’ for forest management by developing an action expiration chart, which helps to define expiry dates for forestry actions using ecosystem services delivery thresholds. We assessed services for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak on the National Forest Estate in Scotland for the next 80 years using probabilistic climate change data from the UKCP09 weather generator. Findings showed that drought would have an overall long-term negative impact on the provision of three services with a decrease up to 41%, whereas climate change has a positive impact on tourism potential with up to five times higher frequency of good climate conditions during summer months. Furthermore, the results highlighted when forestry actions, mainly in the lowlands, will reach their environmental limits during the next 80 years. Our findings reduce knowledge uncertainty and highlight when and where adaptation should be implemented to ensure the provision of future forest ecosystem services in Scotland.

  9. Adapting to Health Impacts of Climate Change in the Department of Defense.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chrétien, Jean-Paul

    2016-01-01

    The Department of Defense (DoD) recognizes climate change as a threat to its mission and recently issued policy to implement climate change adaptation measures. However, the DoD has not conducted a comprehensive assessment of health-related climate change effects. To catalyze the needed assessment--a first step toward a comprehensive DoD climate change adaptation plan for health--this article discusses the DoD relevance of 3 selected climate change impacts: heat injuries, vector-borne diseases, and extreme weather that could lead to natural disasters. The author uses these examples to propose a comprehensive approach to planning for health-related climate change impacts in the DoD.

  10. Improving the role of vulnerability assessments In decision support for effective climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda A. Joyce; Constance I. Millar

    2014-01-01

    Vulnerability assessments (VA) have been proposed as an initial step in a process to develop and implement adaptation management for climate change in forest ecosystems. Scientific understanding of the effects of climate change is an ever-accumulating knowledge base. Synthesizing information from this knowledge base in the context of our understanding of ecosystem...

  11. Communicating climate change adaptation information using web-based platforms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karali, Eleni; Mattern, Kati

    2017-07-01

    To facilitate progress in climate change adaptation policy and practice, it is important not only to ensure the production of accurate, comprehensive and relevant information, but also the easy, timely and affordable access to it. This can contribute to better-informed decisions and improve the design and implementation of adaptation policies and other relevant initiatives. Web-based platforms can play an important role in communicating and distributing data, information and knowledge that become constantly available, reaching out to a large group of potential users. Indeed in the last decade there has been an extensive increase in the number of platforms developed for this purpose in many fields including climate change adaptation. This short paper concentrates on the web-based adaptation platforms developed in Europe. It provides an overview of the recently emerged landscape, examines the basic characteristics of a set of platforms that operate at national, transnational and European level, and discusses some of the key challenges related to their development, maintenance and overall management. Findings presented in this short paper are discussed in greater detailed in the Technical Report of the European Environment Agency Overview of climate change adaptation platforms in Europe.

  12. Issues related to adapting assessment practices

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Erna Kinsey

    mathematics education with reference to Vygotsky's theory of social cognition. Focus on Learning Problems in Mathematics, 15:65-86. Workshop A Project 5. 1999. Assessment in OBE. Catholic University of Leuven,. University of the Free State, Vista University.Bloemfontein. 9 June 1999. Workshop B Project 6 2000.

  13. Adapting California’s ecosystems to a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elizabeth Chornesky,; David Ackerly,; Paul Beier,; Frank Davis,; Flint, Lorraine E.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Moyle, Peter B.; Moritz, Max A.; Scoonover, Mary; Byrd, Kristin B.; Alvarez, Pelayo; Heller, Nicole E.; Micheli, Elisabeth; Weiss, Stuart

    2017-01-01

    Significant efforts are underway to translate improved understanding of how climate change is altering ecosystems into practical actions for sustaining ecosystem functions and benefits. We explore this transition in California, where adaptation and mitigation are advancing relatively rapidly, through four case studies that span large spatial domains and encompass diverse ecological systems, institutions, ownerships, and policies. The case studies demonstrate the context specificity of societal efforts to adapt ecosystems to climate change and involve applications of diverse scientific tools (e.g., scenario analyses, downscaled climate projections, ecological and connectivity models) tailored to specific planning and management situations (alternative energy siting, wetland management, rangeland management, open space planning). They illustrate how existing institutional and policy frameworks provide numerous opportunities to advance adaptation related to ecosystems and suggest that progress is likely to be greatest when scientific knowledge is integrated into collective planning and when supportive policies and financing enable action.

  14. Assessment of the health impacts of climate change in Kiribati.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIver, Lachlan; Woodward, Alistair; Davies, Seren; Tibwe, Tebikau; Iddings, Steven

    2014-05-14

    Kiribati-a low-lying, resource-poor Pacific atoll nation-is one of the most vulnerable countries in the World to the impacts of climate change, including the likely detrimental effects on human health. We describe the preparation of a climate change and health adaptation plan for Kiribati carried out by the World Health Organization and the Kiribati Ministry of Health and Medical Services, including an assessment of risks to health, sources of vulnerability and suggestions for highest priority adaptation responses. This paper identifies advantages and disadvantages in the process that was followed, lays out a future direction of climate change and health adaptation work in Kiribati, and proposes lessons that may be applicable to other small, developing island nations as they prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change on health.

  15. Assessment of the Health Impacts of Climate Change in Kiribati

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lachlan McIver

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Kiribati—a low-lying, resource-poor Pacific atoll nation—is one of the most vulnerable countries in the World to the impacts of climate change, including the likely detrimental effects on human health. We describe the preparation of a climate change and health adaptation plan for Kiribati carried out by the World Health Organization and the Kiribati Ministry of Health and Medical Services, including an assessment of risks to health, sources of vulnerability and suggestions for highest priority adaptation responses. This paper identifies advantages and disadvantages in the process that was followed, lays out a future direction of climate change and health adaptation work in Kiribati, and proposes lessons that may be applicable to other small, developing island nations as they prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change on health.

  16. Uneven adaptive capacity among fishers in a sea of change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoll, Joshua S; Fuller, Emma; Crona, Beatrice I

    2017-01-01

    Fishers worldwide operate in an environment of uncertainty and constant change. Their ability to manage risk associated with such uncertainty and subsequently adapt to change is largely a function of individual circumstances, including their access to different fisheries. However, explicit attention to the heterogeneity of fishers' connections to fisheries at the level of the individual has been largely ignored. We illustrate the ubiquitous nature of these connections by constructing a typology of commercial fishers in the state of Maine based on the different fisheries that fishers rely on to sustain their livelihoods and find that there are over 600 combinations. We evaluate the adaptive potential of each strategy, using a set of attributes identified by fisheries experts in the state, and find that only 12% of fishers can be classified as being well positioned to adapt in the face of changing socioeconomic and ecological conditions. Sensitivity to the uneven and heterogeneous capacity of fishers to manage risk and adapt to change is critical to devising effective management strategies that broadly support fishers. This will require greater attention to the social-ecological connectivity of fishers across different jurisdictions.

  17. Climate Change Adaptation in Mauritius: Considering the Role of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate change exacerbates existing environmental management issues, making them more urgent, less predictable, and often more costly (IPCC, 2007). In Mauritius, rising temperatures are affecting issues related to coral reef bleaching, soil and beach erosion, a greater risk of drought and flash. 1. Adaptation measures ...

  18. Poultry farmers' adaptation to climate change in Enugu North ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study surveyed the perceived effect and adaptation of climate change on poultry production in Enugu-North Agricultural Zone of Enugu State. A questionnaire/interview schedule was used to collect information from 60 poultry farmers. Percentage and mean score were used to analyze the data. Reduced body weight ...

  19. Impacts of climate change and variability, and adaptation strategies ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    13 mai 2011 ... This article appeared in the August 2009 volume of the African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology. The Climate Change Adaptation in Africa research and capacity development program was launched in 2006 as a joint initiative between Canada's International Development Research ...

  20. Strengthening Local Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    27 mars 2017 ... Researchers will then couple these scenarios with hydrological models and projected trends in land use and agriculture to identify the areas and populations most vulnerable to water-related climate change. The government of the province of Oruro has expressed an interest in pioneering adaptation plans ...

  1. Climate change adaptation in informal settings: Understanding and ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate change adaptation in informal settings: Understanding and reinforcing bottom-up initiatives in Latin America and the Caribbean. People living ... Combining architecture, urban planning and geography methodologies, the project will conduct research in five cities in Colombia, Chile, Cuba, and Haiti, and training and ...

  2. Enhancing Adaptation to Climate Change among Pastoralists in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Enhancing Adaptation to Climate Change among Pastoralists in Northern Kenya. About 13% of Kenya's 30 million people are pastoralists, herding their livestock in the arid and semi-arid lands that constitute about 75% of the country's land mass. These areas are prone to rainfall variability and extreme drought. This project ...

  3. Strengthening Local Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    This project aims to build the capacity of communities in Bolivia's Central Highlands to adapt to water-related impacts of climate change by identifying the most ... IDRC has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Government of India that enables Canada to continue supporting important research in India.

  4. Enhancing Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture and Water ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate change extremes such as flooding and seasonal drought are already undermining the economies of countries in the Horn of Africa, with agriculture and water resources being the most affected sectors. Countries are drawing up national adaptation programs of action (NAPAs) to serve as roadmaps for future ...

  5. Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    The project's main objective is to support capacity for adapting to the impacts of climate change on water resources in Canada, Morocco, and Niger. This will involve improving human health and the resilience of natural and human systems while also promoting the communication and application of knowledge about ...

  6. Farmers' Adaptation Initiatives to the Impact of Climate Change on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study ascertained the innovative adaptive measures used by farmers in northern Nigeria to cushion the harmful effects of climate change. Quantitative and qualitative approaches (Rapid Rural Appraisal, focus group discussions, and semi – structured interview schedule) were used to elicit information from a total of 500 ...

  7. Climate Change Adaptation in Mauritius: Considering the Role of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate Change Adaptation in Mauritius: Considering the Role of Institutions. ... Rising temperatures are exacerbating the problems of coral reef bleaching, soil and beach erosion, greater risk of flash floods and drought, intensifying tropical storms, sea level rise, and biodiversity impacts. Projections for accelerated warming ...

  8. Adaptive responses to environmental changes in Lake Victoria cichlids

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijssel, Jacobus Cornelis van (Jacco)

    2014-01-01

    Lake Victoria cichlids show the fastest vertebrate adaptive radiation known which is why they function as a model organism to study evolution. In the past 40 years, Lake Victoria experienced severe environmental changes including the boom of the introduced, predatory Nile perch and eutrophication.

  9. Leadership for coping with and adapting to policy change in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper explores what, from school principals' perspectives, constitutes leadership for coping with and adapting to policy change within deprived school contexts. Using qualitative interpretive research, we drew from the practices of five principals that were purposively selected from a broader study, which focused on ...

  10. Climate Change Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation in the ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate Change Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation in the Lowland and Wetland Areas of Delta State, Nigeria ... This project is a collaborative research effort between two Think Tank Initiative grantees: the Centre for Population and Environmental Development and the Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa.

  11. Framing Vulnerability and Adaptation to Environmental Change in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    AJB SERVER

    social ecological tools for adaptation will exacerbate the effects of higher ambient temperatures on food production, ... Changes in global temperatures between 1970 and 2004 and the impacts on physical ... supplies are projected to be negatively affected by decreasing fisheries resources in large lakes due to rising.

  12. Organic Farming as a Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    For climate change adaptation, OF systems have a strong potential for building resilient food systems through farm diversification and building soil fertility with organic matter. In developing countries, OF offers alternatives to energy-intensive production inputs such as synthetic fertilizers which are limited for poor rural ...

  13. Impacts of climate change, variability and adaptation strategies on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    There are different wealth groups namely the rich, the middle and the poor and these are differently vulnerable climate change. The study concluded that, the wealth of knowledge on coping and adaptation that farmer has should form a foundation for designing agricultural innovation systems to deal with impacts of climate ...

  14. Climate change adaptation needs of male and female oil palm ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate change adaptation needs of male and female oil palm entrepreneurs in Edo State, Nigeria. ... Major challenges to accessing relevant CCAP included inadequate capital ( x̄ = 2.86) and poor extension service ( x̄ =2.60). Training needs were indicated by females mostly in marketing forecast ( x̄ =3.00), palm oil ...

  15. Decisions from Experience: How Groups and Individuals Adapt to Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Experience: How Groups and Individuals Adapt to Change Every morning, Ferran Adrià receives fresh products from his suppliers on Spain‘s Costa Brava. High...involved in this decision? Perhaps. Only a few kilometers from El Bulli, Joan , Josep, and Jordi Roca manage El Celler de Can Roca, currently

  16. Climate Change Adaptation, Water, and Food Security in Pakistan ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate Change Adaptation, Water, and Food Security in Pakistan. Pakistan's devastating 2010 Indus basin floods left approximately one-fifth of Pakistan's land area underwater and directly affected about 20 million people. Subsequent flooding in the Indus deserts the following year also showed how vulnerable the country ...

  17. Analyses of determinants of adaptation to climate change among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study examined the factors influencing arable crop farmers' adaptation to climate change in the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, Nigeria. Using multistage random sampling technique, 120 respondents were selected for detailed study. Focus Group Discussion and structured questionnaire were used to elicit information ...

  18. Synthesizing Learning on Adaptation to Climate Change | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate Change Adaptation in Africa (CCAA), a program is supported by IDRC and the United Kingdom's Department for International Development (DFID), supports three kinds of activity: research, capacity building and networking. Since 2006, CCAA has supported more than 30 participatory action research projects.

  19. Climate Change Adaptation Research and Capacity Development in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Sub-Saharan Africa faces the greatest challenges associated with climate change, yet has limited scientific capacity to manage their adverse effects. Numerous adaptation strategies have been proposed, but few are supported by strong scientific evidence. Some are generic, and do not consider the social, political and ...

  20. Determinants of climate change adaptation among male and female ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Adaptation is considered an appropriate response to climate change and variability, especially for the smallholder farmers. However, the response decisions and actions of male and female farmers may be influenced by various factor and factor combinations that are not adequately understood. We hypothesized that both ...

  1. Knowledge Sharing for Climate Change Adaptation in Africa | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    This project aims to put in place a vast mechanism for sharing information on climate change adaptation across the continent of Africa. The interactive network will be a platform for exchange of ideas, debate and information sharing between diverse actors (communities, researchers, development practitioners, ...

  2. How psychological resources facilitate adaptation to organizational change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Heuvel, M.; Demerouti, E.; Bakker, A.B.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this 1-year follow-up study among 580 police officers is to investigate whether identity-related resources are positively related to adaptive behaviour during times of organizational change. Combining the social identity perspective with resources theories, we hypothesized that

  3. Agricultural Innovations for Climate Change Adaptation and Food ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study sought to examine various agricultural innovations for climate change adaptation and food security in eight countries in Western and Central Africa namely Nigeria, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Ghana, Gambia, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea and Central African Republic. The countries were grouped into three clusters to ...

  4. Optimizing Reservoir Operation to Adapt to the Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madadgar, S.; Jung, I.; Moradkhani, H.

    2010-12-01

    Climate change and upcoming variation in flood timing necessitates the adaptation of current rule curves developed for operation of water reservoirs as to reduce the potential damage from either flood or draught events. This study attempts to optimize the current rule curves of Cougar Dam on McKenzie River in Oregon addressing some possible climate conditions in 21th century. The objective is to minimize the failure of operation to meet either designated demands or flood limit at a downstream checkpoint. A simulation/optimization model including the standard operation policy and a global optimization method, tunes the current rule curve upon 8 GCMs and 2 greenhouse gases emission scenarios. The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) is used as the hydrology model to project the streamflow for the period of 2000-2100 using downscaled precipitation and temperature forcing from 8 GCMs and two emission scenarios. An ensemble of rule curves, each associated with an individual scenario, is obtained by optimizing the reservoir operation. The simulation of reservoir operation, for all the scenarios and the expected value of the ensemble, is conducted and performance assessment using statistical indices including reliability, resilience, vulnerability and sustainability is made.

  5. Fatigue-induced adaptive changes of anticipatory postural adjustments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strang, Adam J; Berg, William P

    2007-03-01

    To examine the fatigue-induced adaptive changes (e.g., timing) of anticipatory postural adjustments (APAs), APAs of 30 research participants were recorded before (baseline) and after (post-test) conditions of either rest (control group, n=15) or fatigue (fatigue group, n=15). Muscle fatigue was generated using a dead-lift exercise performed to exhaustion. Self-initiated postural perturbations were induced using a rapid unilateral arm-raising maneuver (focal movement), and APAs were obtained using electromyography (EMG) recorded bilaterally in the lumbar and thoracic paraspinal muscles as well as the hamstring muscles. Postural stability during the focal movement was assessed using a force plate. Results showed that fatigue had no effect on postural stability during the focal movement, and yet caused earlier APA onsets in three of the six muscles evaluated. In spite of early APA activation, the APA EMG integrals of two of the three postural control muscles which exhibited fatigue-induced early APA onsets (T9 and L4 contralateral paraspinals) did not differ between baseline and post-test measures. The findings suggest that early APA onset may enhance postural stability by permitting a longer duration APA which can counteract fatigue-induced decreases in the force-producing capability of muscles that contribute to postural stability.

  6. Crowdsourcing based subjective quality assessment of adaptive video streaming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shahid, M.; Søgaard, Jacob; Pokhrel, J.

    2014-01-01

    humans are considered to be the most valid method of the as- sessment of QoE. Besides lab-based subjective experiments, crowdsourcing based subjective assessment of video quality is gaining popularity as an alternative method. This paper presents insights into a study that investigates perceptual pref......- erences of various adaptive video streaming scenarios through crowdsourcing based subjective quality assessment....

  7. Institutions for adaptation to climate change: comparing national adaptation strategies in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Termeer, C.J.A.M.; Biesbroek, G.R.; Brink, van den M.A.

    2012-01-01

    In addition to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, societies worldwide have to cope with the potential impacts of climate change. The central question of this paper is to what extent our historically grown institutions enable actors to cope with the new challenges of climate adaptation. We present

  8. Climate change adaptation strategies for resource management and conservation planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawler, Joshua J

    2009-04-01

    Recent rapid changes in the Earth's climate have altered ecological systems around the globe. Global warming has been linked to changes in physiology, phenology, species distributions, interspecific interactions, and disturbance regimes. Projected future climate change will undoubtedly result in even more dramatic shifts in the states of many ecosystems. These shifts will provide one of the largest challenges to natural resource managers and conservation planners. Managing natural resources and ecosystems in the face of uncertain climate requires new approaches. Here, the many adaptation strategies that have been proposed for managing natural systems in a changing climate are reviewed. Most of the recommended approaches are general principles and many are tools that managers are already using. What is new is a turning toward a more agile management perspective. To address climate change, managers will need to act over different spatial and temporal scales. The focus of restoration will need to shift from historic species assemblages to potential future ecosystem services. Active adaptive management based on potential future climate impact scenarios will need to be a part of everyday operations. And triage will likely become a critical option. Although many concepts and tools for addressing climate change have been proposed, key pieces of information are still missing. To successfully manage for climate change, a better understanding will be needed of which species and systems will likely be most affected by climate change, how to preserve and enhance the evolutionary capacity of species, how to implement effective adaptive management in new systems, and perhaps most importantly, in which situations and systems will the general adaptation strategies that have been proposed work and how can they be effectively applied.

  9. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters in a Changing Climate: Lessons for Adaptation to Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastrandrea, M.; Field, C. B.; Mach, K. J.; Barros, V.

    2013-12-01

    The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, published in 2012, integrates expertise in climate science, disaster risk reduction, and adaptation to inform discussions on how to reduce and manage the risks of extreme events and disasters in a changing climate. Impacts and the risks of disasters are determined by the interaction of the physical characteristics of weather and climate events with the vulnerability of exposed human society and ecosystems. The Special Report evaluates the factors that make people and infrastructure vulnerable to extreme events, trends in disaster losses, recent and future changes in the relationship between climate change and extremes, and experience with a wide range of options used by institutions, organizations, and communities to reduce exposure and vulnerability, and improve resilience, to climate extremes. Actions ranging from incremental improvements in governance and technology to more transformational changes are assessed. The Special Report provides a knowledge base that is also relevant to the broader context of managing the risks of climate change through mitigation, adaptation, and other responses, assessed in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), to be completed in 2014. These themes include managing risks through an iterative process involving learning about risks and the effectiveness of responses, employing a portfolio of actions tailored to local circumstances but with links from local to global scales, and considering additional benefits of actions such as improving livelihoods and well-being. The Working Group II contribution to the AR5 also examines the ways that extreme events and their impacts contribute to understanding of vulnerabilities and adaptation deficits in the context of climate change, the extent to which impacts of climate change are experienced through changes in the frequency and severity of extremes as opposed to mean changes

  10. Climate change impacts and adaptive strategies: lessons from the grapevine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosedale, Jonathan R; Abernethy, Kirsten E; Smart, Richard E; Wilson, Robert J; Maclean, Ilya M D

    2016-11-01

    The cultivation of grapevines for winemaking, known as viticulture, is widely cited as a climate-sensitive agricultural system that has been used as an indicator of both historic and contemporary climate change. Numerous studies have questioned the viability of major viticulture regions under future climate projections. We review the methods used to study the impacts of climate change on viticulture in the light of what is known about the effects of climate and weather on the yields and quality of vineyard harvests. Many potential impacts of climate change on viticulture, particularly those associated with a change in climate variability or seasonal weather patterns, are rarely captured. Key biophysical characteristics of viticulture are often unaccounted for, including the variability of grapevine phenology and the exploitation of microclimatic niches that permit successful cultivation under suboptimal macroclimatic conditions. We consider how these same biophysical characteristics permit a variety of strategies by which viticulture can adapt to changing climatic conditions. The ability to realize these strategies, however, is affected by uneven exposure to risks across the winemaking sector, and the evolving capacity for decision-making within and across organizational boundaries. The role grape provenance plays in shaping perceptions of wine value and quality illustrates how conflicts of interest influence decisions about adaptive strategies within the industry. We conclude by considering what lessons can be taken from viticulture for studies of climate change impacts and the capacity for adaptation in other agricultural and natural systems. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in Large Cities: A Global Baseline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araos, Malcolm; Austin, Stephanie E; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Ford, James D

    2016-01-01

    Climate change will have significant impacts on human health, and urban populations are expected to be highly sensitive. The health risks from climate change in cities are compounded by rapid urbanization, high population density, and climate-sensitive built environments. Local governments are positioned to protect populations from climate health risks, but it is unclear whether municipalities are producing climate-adaptive policies. In this article, we develop and apply systematic methods to assess the state of public health adaptation in 401 urban areas globally with more than 1 million people, creating the first global baseline for urban public health adaptation. We find that only 10% of the sampled urban areas report any public health adaptation initiatives. The initiatives identified most frequently address risks posed by extreme weather events and involve direct changes in management or behavior rather than capacity building, research, or long-term investments in infrastructure. Based on our characterization of the current urban health adaptation landscape, we identify several gaps: limited evidence of reporting of institutional adaptation at the municipal level in urban areas in the Global South; lack of information-based adaptation initiatives; limited focus on initiatives addressing infectious disease risks; and absence of monitoring, reporting, and evaluation. © The Author(s) 2015.

  12. Adaptive silviculture for climate change: a national experiment in manager-scientist partnerships to apply an adaptation framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda M. ​Nagel; Brian J. Palik; Michael A. Battaglia; Anthony W. D' Amato; James M. Guldin; Chris Swanston; Maria K. Janowiak; Matthew P. Powers; Linda A. Joyce; Constance I. Millar; David L. Peterson; Lisa M. Ganio; Chad Kirschbaum; Molly R. Roske

    2017-01-01

    Forest managers in the United States must respond to the need for climate-adaptive strategies in the face of observed and projected climatic changes. However, there is a lack of on-the-ground forest adaptation research to indicate what adaptation measures or tactics might be effective in preparing forest ecosystems to deal with climate change. Natural resource managers...

  13. Integrating climate change adaptation in energy planning and decision-making - Key challenges and opportunities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olhoff, Anne; Olsen, Karen Holm

    2011-01-01

    Energy systems are significantly vulnerable to current climate variability and extreme events. As climate change becomes more pronounced, the risks and vulnerabilities will be exacerbated. To date, energy sector adaptation issues have received very limited attention. In this paper, a climate risk...... management framework is used as the basis for identifying key challenges and opportunities to enhance the integration of climate change adaptation in energy planning and decision-making. Given its importance for raising awareness and for stimulating action by planners and decision-makers, emphasis is placed...... barriers to integration of climate risks and adaptive responses in energy planning and decision making. Both detailed assessments of the costs and benefits of integrating adaptation measures and rougher ‘order of magnitude’ estimates would enhance awareness raising and momentum for action....

  14. Online participation in climate change adaptation: A case study of agricultural adaptation measures in Northern Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bojovic, Dragana; Bonzanigo, Laura; Giupponi, Carlo; Maziotis, Alexandros

    2015-07-01

    The new EU strategy on adaptation to climate change suggests flexible and participatory approaches. Face-to-face contact, although it involves time-consuming procedures with a limited audience, has often been considered the most effective participatory approach. In recent years, however, there has been an increase in the visibility of different citizens' initiatives in the online world, which strengthens the possibility of greater citizen agency. This paper investigates whether the Internet can ensure efficient public participation with meaningful engagement in climate change adaptation. In elucidating issues regarding climate change adaptation, we developed an eParticipation framework to explore adaptation capacity of agriculture to climate change in Northern Italy. Farmers were mobilised using a pre-existing online network. First they took part in an online questionnaire for revealing their perceptions of and reactions to the impacts of ongoing changes in agriculture. We used these results to suggest a portfolio of policy measures and to set evaluation criteria. Farmers then evaluated these policy options, using a multi criteria analysis tool with a simple user-friendly interface. Our results showed that eParticipation is efficient: it supports a rapid data collection, while involving high number of participants. Moreover, we demonstrated that the digital divide is decreasingly an obstacle for using online spaces for public engagement. This research does not present eParticipation as a panacea. Rather, eParticipation was implemented with well-established participatory approaches to both validate the results and, consequently, communicate meaningful messages on local agricultural adaptation practices to regional decision-makers. Feedbacks from the regional decision-makers showed their interest in using eParticipation to improve communication with farmers in the future. We expect that, with further Internet proliferation, eParticipation may allow the inclusion of

  15. A comparative review of multi-risk modelling methodologies for climate change adaptation in mountain regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terzi, Stefano; Torresan, Silvia; Schneiderbauer, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    Keywords: Climate change, mountain regions, multi-risk assessment, climate change adaptation. Climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on the environment, the economy and society. Adaptation actions are needed to cope with the impacts that have already occurred (e.g. storms, glaciers melting, floods, droughts) and to prepare for future scenarios of climate change. Mountain environment is particularly vulnerable to the climate changes due to its exposure to recent climate warming (e.g. water regime changes, thawing of permafrost) and due to the high degree of specialization of both natural and human systems (e.g. alpine species, valley population density, tourism-based economy). As a consequence, the mountain local governments are encouraged to undertake territorial governance policies to climate change, considering multi-risks and opportunities for the mountain economy and identifying the best portfolio of adaptation strategies. This study aims to provide a literature review of available qualitative and quantitative tools, methodological guidelines and best practices to conduct multi-risk assessments in the mountain environment within the context of climate change. We analyzed multi-risk modelling and assessment methods applied in alpine regions (e.g. event trees, Bayesian Networks, Agent Based Models) in order to identify key concepts (exposure, resilience, vulnerability, risk, adaptive capacity), climatic drivers, cause-effect relationships and socio-ecological systems to be integrated in a comprehensive framework. The main outcomes of the review, including a comparison of existing techniques based on different criteria (e.g. scale of analysis, targeted questions, level of complexity) and a snapshot of the developed multi-risk framework for climate change adaptation will be here presented and discussed.

  16. Approaches to evaluating climate change impacts on species: A guide to initiating the adaptation planning process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erika L. Rowland; Jennifer E. Davison; Lisa J. Graumlich

    2011-01-01

    Assessing the impact of climate change on species and associated management objectives is a critical initial step for engaging in the adaptation planning process. Multiple approaches are available. While all possess limitations to their application associated with the uncertainties inherent in the data and models that inform their results, conducting and incorporating...

  17. Overview of climate change adaptation platforms/services in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Street, Roger; Sanderson, Hans; Clare, Downing

    2015-01-01

    information on the nature and scope of the links between adaptation services, and climate services and disaster risk management services. The information provided covers the status and drivers for these links, how respective roles can be defined and relationships established, and how to enhance the quality...... of services available. This paper was developed with input from country experts through a one-day expert meeting, that was held on 23 June 2014, back to back with the 24 June EIONET workshop on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation (CCIVA) at the EEA. In addition, telephone interviews...

  18. Adaptive Peircean decision aid project summary assessments.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Senglaub, Michael E.

    2007-01-01

    This efforts objective was to identify and hybridize a suite of technologies enabling the development of predictive decision aids for use principally in combat environments but also in any complex information terrain. The technologies required included formal concept analysis for knowledge representation and information operations, Peircean reasoning to support hypothesis generation, Mill's's canons to begin defining information operators that support the first two technologies and co-evolutionary game theory to provide the environment/domain to assess predictions from the reasoning engines. The intended application domain is the IED problem because of its inherent evolutionary nature. While a fully functioning integrated algorithm was not achieved the hybridization and demonstration of the technologies was accomplished and demonstration of utility provided for a number of ancillary queries.

  19. Communal farming, climate change adaptation and the media in Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mthokozisi P. Ndhlovu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is destroying Zimbabwean communal farmers’ agricultural activities – a source of living for most people. As communal farmers struggle to adapt, the media is expected to assume a fundamental theoretical role of educating and informing them about the appropriate adaptation techniques. Located in Umguza District in Matabeleland North Province, the study explored how communal farmers created meaning out of climate change media content and its influence on their agricultural practices from October 2014 to April 2015. In doing so, the study used the Two-Step Flow theory and Hall’s Encoding and Decoding Model. Entrenched in pragmatism, the study embedded quantitative techniques at different stages. Multistage sampling combining Simple Random Sampling (SRS, purposive and systematic sampling techniques was used to identify the 263 households for semi structured questionnaires, direct observations and in-depth interviews. The findings were analysed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS, thematic analysis and pattern matching. The results show that personal observations; print, broadcast and online media; and opinion leaders were the main sources of climate change information. The radio was the most used medium in communicating climate change adaptation though it was the second most accessed after mobile phones. Conservation Agriculture and planting of drought-resistant crops were some of the adaptation techniques communicated in the media. When interacting with media content, communal farmers create their own meaning influenced by their cultural values, resulting in some adopting, rejecting or modifying certain adaptation techniques. The study concludes that opinion leaders are fundamental in communal farmers’ interaction with media but their influence must not be overestimated.

  20. From public to private climate change adaptation finance : Adapting finance or financing adaptation?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pauw, W.P.

    2017-01-01

    Private financing is the latest mark of the privatisation of global governance. The implementation of international agreements in the fields of environment, climate change and development has always been supported by public finance from developed countries. This tradition is broken by a

  1. Ecosystem service provision in a changing Europe: adapting to the impacts of combined climate and socio-economic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunford, Robert W; Smith, Alison C; Harrison, Paula A; Hanganu, Diana

    Future patterns of European ecosystem services provision are likely to vary significantly as a result of climatic and socio-economic change and the implementation of adaptation strategies. However, there is little research in mapping future ecosystem services and no integrated assessment approach to map the combined impacts of these drivers. Map changing patterns in ecosystem services for different European futures and (a) identify the role of driving forces; (b) explore the potential influence of different adaptation options. The CLIMSAVE integrated assessment platform is used to map spatial patterns in services (food, water and timber provision, atmospheric regulation, biodiversity existence/bequest, landscape experience and land use diversity) for a number of combined climatic and socio-economic scenarios. Eight adaptation strategies are explored within each scenario. Future service provision (particularly water provision) will be significantly impacted by climate change. Socio-economic changes shift patterns of service provision: more dystopian societies focus on food provision at the expense of other services. Adaptation options offer significant opportunities, but may necessitate trade-offs between services, particularly between agriculture- and forestry-related services. Unavoidable trade-offs between regions (particularly South-North) are also identified in some scenarios. Coordinating adaptation across regions and sectors will be essential to ensure that all needs are met: a factor that will become increasingly pressing under dystopian futures where inter-regional cooperation breaks down. Integrated assessment enables exploration of interactions and trade-offs between ecosystem services, highlighting the importance of taking account of complex cross-sectoral interactions under different future scenarios of planning adaptation responses.

  2. [Caffeine and adaptive changes in the circulatory system during pregnancy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cendrowska-Pinkosz, Monika; Dworzański, Wojciech; Krauze, Magdalena; Burdan, Franciszek

    2017-01-23

    Adaptive physiological changes that occur in pregnant women can fluctuate with the intake of substances with proven, adverse biological effect on the body. Due to the fact that caffeine is one of the most chronically used xenobiotics, the impact of consuming caffeine on adaptive processes in the circulatory system of a pregnant women required a research. Many researchers emphasise its negative effect on the circulatory system of the mother and her offspring. However, in spite of years of observation, there is no clear answer to what extent dose or in what period of time the caffeine modulates the adaptive processes during pregnancy. Because of the potential risk the supply of caffeine during pregnancy should be subjected to considerable restrictions.

  3. Analyzing Katana referral hospital as a complex adaptive system: agents, interactions and adaptation to a changing environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karemere, Hermès; Ribesse, Nathalie; Marchal, Bruno; Macq, Jean

    2015-01-01

    This study deals with the adaptation of Katana referral hospital in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo in a changing environment that is affected for more than a decade by intermittent armed conflicts. His objective is to generate theoretical proposals for addressing differently the analysis of hospitals governance in the aims to assess their performance and how to improve that performance. The methodology applied approach uses a case study using mixed methods ( qualitative and quantitative) for data collection. It uses (1) hospital data to measure the output of hospitals, (2) literature review to identify among others, events and interventions recorded in the history of hospital during the study period and (3) information from individual interviews to validate the interpretation of the results of the previous two sources of data and understand the responsiveness of management team referral hospital during times of change. The study brings four theoretical propositions: (1) Interaction between key agents is a positive force driving adaptation if the actors share a same vision, (2) The strength of the interaction between agents is largely based on the nature of institutional arrangements, which in turn are shaped by the actors themselves, (3) The owner and the management team play a decisive role in the implementation of effective institutional arrangements and establishment of positive interactions between agents, (4) The analysis of recipient population's perception of health services provided allow to better tailor and adapt the health services offer to the population's needs and expectations. Research shows that it isn't enough just to provide support (financial and technical), to manage a hospital for operate and adapt to a changing environment but must still animate, considering that it is a complex adaptive system and that this animation is nothing other than the induction of a positive interaction between agents.

  4. An Integrated Systems Approach to Designing Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryu, D.; Malano, H. M.; Davidson, B.; George, B.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change projections are characterised by large uncertainties with rainfall variability being the key challenge in designing adaptation policies. Climate change adaptation in water resources shows all the typical characteristics of 'wicked' problems typified by cognitive uncertainty as new scientific knowledge becomes available, problem instability, knowledge imperfection and strategic uncertainty due to institutional changes that inevitably occur over time. Planning that is characterised by uncertainties and instability requires an approach that can accommodate flexibility and adaptive capacity for decision-making. An ability to take corrective measures in the event that scenarios and responses envisaged initially derive into forms at some future stage. We present an integrated-multidisciplinary and comprehensive framework designed to interface and inform science and decision making in the formulation of water resource management strategies to deal with climate change in the Musi Catchment of Andhra Pradesh, India. At the core of this framework is a dialogue between stakeholders, decision makers and scientists to define a set of plausible responses to an ensemble of climate change scenarios derived from global climate modelling. The modelling framework used to evaluate the resulting combination of climate scenarios and adaptation responses includes the surface and groundwater assessment models (SWAT & MODFLOW) and the water allocation modelling (REALM) to determine the water security of each adaptation strategy. Three climate scenarios extracted from downscaled climate models were selected for evaluation together with four agreed responses—changing cropping patterns, increasing watershed development, changing the volume of groundwater extraction and improving irrigation efficiency. Water security in this context is represented by the combination of level of water availability and its associated security of supply for three economic activities (agriculture

  5. Adapting the US Food System to Climate Change Goes Beyond the Farm Gate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Easterling, W. E.

    2014-12-01

    The literature on climate change effects on food and agriculture has concentrated primarily on how crops and livestock likely will be directly affected by climate variability and change and by elevated carbon dioxide. Integrated assessments have simulated large-scale economic response to shifting agricultural productivity caused by climate change, including possible changes in food costs and prices. A small but growing literature has shown how different facets of agricultural production inside the farm gate could be adapted to climate variability and change. Very little research has examined how the full food system (production, processing and storage, transportation and trade, and consumption) is likely to be affected by climate change and how different adaptation approaches will be required by different parts of the food system. This paper will share partial results of a major assessment sponsored by USDA to determine how climate change-induced changes in global food security could affect the US food system. Emphasis is given to understanding how adaptation strategies differ widely across the food system. A common thread, however, is risk management-based decision making. Technologies and management strategies may co-evolve with climate change but a risk management framework for implementing those technologies and strategies may provide a stable foundation.

  6. Adaptive genetic potential of coniferous forest tree species under climate change: implications for sustainable forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihai, Georgeta; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Teodosiu, Maria; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Daia, Mihai; Mirancea, Ionel; Ivanov, Paula; Alin, Alexandru

    2017-04-01

    Mountain ecosystems are extremely vulnerable to climate change. The real potential for adaptation depends upon the existence of a wide genetic diversity in trees populations, upon the adaptive genetic variation, respectively. Genetic diversity offers the guarantee that forest species can survive, adapt and evolve under the influence of changing environmental conditions. The aim of this study is to evaluate the genetic diversity and adaptive genetic potential of two local species - Norway spruce and European silver fir - in the context of regional climate change. Based on data from a long-term provenance experiments network and climate variables spanning over more than 50 years, we have investigated the impact of climatic factors on growth performance and adaptation of tree species. Our results indicate that climatic and geographic factors significantly affect forest site productivity. Mean annual temperature and annual precipitation amount were found to be statistically significant explanatory variables. Combining the additive genetic model with the analysis of nuclear markers we obtained different images of the genetic structure of tree populations. As genetic indicators we used: gene frequencies, genetic diversity, genetic differentiation, genetic variance, plasticity. Spatial genetic analyses have allowed identifying the genetic centers holding high genetic diversity which will be valuable sources of gene able to buffer the negative effects of future climate change. Correlations between the marginal populations and in the optimal vegetation, between the level of genetic diversity and ecosystem stability, will allow the assessment of future risks arising from current genetic structure. Therefore, the strategies for sustainable forest management have to rely on the adaptive genetic variation and local adaptation of the valuable genetic resources. This work was realized within the framework of the project GENCLIM (Evaluating the adaptive potential of the main

  7. Challenges and Opportunities for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into WaSH Development Planning in Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alhassan, Salley; Hadwen, Wade L

    2017-07-10

    Climate change threatens water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) facilities and services, as these are intimately linked to the water cycle and are vulnerable to changes in the quantity and quality of available water resources. Floods and droughts, which pollute and reduce water delivery respectively, have now become a perennial issue to deal with in the northern regions of Ghana. This study aimed to assess the degree to which climate change adaptation measures are mainstreamed into the water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) development planning process in Ghana. Stakeholders from government and non-government agencies were interviewed to gain perspectives on the threat of climate change, the inclusion of climate change in WaSH planning and the barriers preventing mainstreaming. Despite awareness of climate change, adaptation measures have not been considered, and the immediate WaSH needs remain the priority. Overall, stakeholders felt the adaptive capacity of the Municipality was low and that mainstreaming has not yet occurred. Despite the lack of progress, there are great opportunities for mainstreaming climate change adaptation into planning through increasing awareness and capacity, legislative and institutional changes and the development of participatory systems to provide early warning systems and disaster risk analyses that will inform future planning.

  8. Challenges and Opportunities for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into WaSH Development Planning in Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Climate change threatens water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) facilities and services, as these are intimately linked to the water cycle and are vulnerable to changes in the quantity and quality of available water resources. Floods and droughts, which pollute and reduce water delivery respectively, have now become a perennial issue to deal with in the northern regions of Ghana. This study aimed to assess the degree to which climate change adaptation measures are mainstreamed into the water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) development planning process in Ghana. Stakeholders from government and non-government agencies were interviewed to gain perspectives on the threat of climate change, the inclusion of climate change in WaSH planning and the barriers preventing mainstreaming. Despite awareness of climate change, adaptation measures have not been considered, and the immediate WaSH needs remain the priority. Overall, stakeholders felt the adaptive capacity of the Municipality was low and that mainstreaming has not yet occurred. Despite the lack of progress, there are great opportunities for mainstreaming climate change adaptation into planning through increasing awareness and capacity, legislative and institutional changes and the development of participatory systems to provide early warning systems and disaster risk analyses that will inform future planning. PMID:28698518

  9. Climate change and pastoralism: impacts, consequences and adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrero, M; Addison, J; Bedelian, C; Carabine, E; Havlík, P; Henderson, B; Van De Steeg, J; Thornton, P K

    2016-11-01

    The authors discuss the main climate change impacts on pastoralist societies, including those on rangelands, livestock and other natural resources, and their extended repercussions on food security, incomes and vulnerability. The impacts of climate change on the rangelands of the globe and on the vulnerability of the people who inhabit them will be severe and diverse, and will require multiple, simultaneous responses. In higher latitudes, the removal of temperature constraints might increase pasture production and livestock productivity, but in tropical arid lands, the impacts are highly location specific, but mostly negative. The authors outline several adaptation options, ranging from implementing new technical practices and diversifying income sources to finding institutional support and introducing new market mechanisms, all of which are pivotal for enhancing the capacity of pastoralists to adapt to climate variability and change. Due to the dynamism of all the changes affecting pastoral societies, strategies that lock pastoral societies into specified development pathways could be maladaptive. Flexible and evolving combinations of practices and policies are the key to successful pastoral adaptation.

  10. Trade in water and commodities as adaptations to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammers, R. B.; Hertel, T. W.; Prousevitch, A.; Baldos, U. L. C.; Frolking, S. E.; Liu, J.; Grogan, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    The human capacity for altering the water cycle has been well documented and given the expected change due to population, income growth, biofuels, climate, and associated land use change, there remains great uncertainty in both the degree of increased pressure on land and water resources and in our ability to adapt to these changes. Alleviating regional shortages in water supply can be carried out in a spatial hierarchy through i) direct trade of water between all regions, ii) development of infrastructure to improve water availability within regions (e.g. impounding rivers), iii) via inter-basin hydrological transfer between neighboring regions and, iv) via virtual water trade. These adaptation strategies can be managed via market trade in water and commodities to identify those strategies most likely to be adopted. This work combines the physically-based University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model (WBM) with the macro-scale Purdue University Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices Land use and the Environment (SIMPLE) to explore the interaction of supply and demand for fresh water globally. In this work we use a newly developed grid cell-based version of SIMPLE to achieve a more direct connection between the two modeling paradigms of physically-based models with optimization-driven approaches characteristic of economic models. We explore questions related to the global and regional impact of water scarcity and water surplus on the ability of regions to adapt to future change. Allowing for a variety of adaptation strategies such as direct trade of water and expanding the built water infrastructure, as well as indirect trade in commodities, will reduce overall global water stress and, in some regions, significantly reduce their vulnerability to these future changes.

  11. Anticipatory Learning for Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petra Tschakert

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper is a methodological contribution to emerging debates on the role of learning, particularly forward-looking (anticipatory learning, as a key element for adaptation and resilience in the context of climate change. First, we describe two major challenges: understanding adaptation as a process and recognizing the inadequacy of existing learning tools, with a specific focus on high poverty contexts and complex livelihood-vulnerability risks. Then, the article examines learning processes from a dynamic systems perspective, comparing theoretical aspects and conceptual advances in resilience thinking and action research/learning (AR/AL. Particular attention is paid to learning loops (cycles, critical reflection, spaces for learning, and power. Finally, we outline a methodological framework to facilitate iterative learning processes and adaptive decision making in practice. We stress memory, monitoring of key drivers of change, scenario planning, and measuring anticipatory capacity as crucial ingredients. Our aim is to identify opportunities and obstacles for forward-looking learning processes at the intersection of climatic uncertainty and development challenges in Africa, with the overarching objective to enhance adaptation and resilient livelihood pathways, rather than learning by shock.

  12. Demographic aspects of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutz, Wolfgang; Striessnig, Erich

    2015-01-01

    This paper addresses the contribution of changes in population size and structures to greenhouse gas emissions and to the capacity to adapt to climate change. The paper goes beyond the conventional focus on the changing composition by age and sex. It does so by addressing explicitly the changing composition of the population by level of educational attainment, taking into account new evidence about the effect of educational attainment in reducing significantly the vulnerability of populations to climatic challenges. This evidence, which has inspired a new generation of socio-economic climate change scenarios, is summarized. While the earlier IPCC-SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenarios only included alternative trajectories for total population size (treating population essentially as a scaling parameter), the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) in the new scenarios were designed to capture the socio-economic challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation, and include full age, sex, and education details for all countries.

  13. Integrated Climate Change Impacts Assessment in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Meyer, R.; Anderson, M.; Bromirski, P. D.

    2014-12-01

    This paper summarizes lessons learned from an ongoing series of climate change assessments for California, conducted by the scientific community and State and local agencies. A series of three Assessments have considered vulnerability and adaptation issues for both managed and natural systems. California's vulnerability is many faceted, arising because of an exceptionally drought prone climate, open coast and large estuary exposure to sea level rise, sensitive ecosystems and complex human footprint and economy. Key elements of the assessments have been a common set of climate and sea-level rise scenarios, based upon IPCC GCM simulations. Regionalized and localized output from GCM projections was provided to research teams investigating water supply, agriculture, coastal resources, ecosystem services, forestry, public health, and energy demand and hydropower generation. The assessment results are helping to investigate the broad range of uncertainty that is inherent in climate projections, and users are becoming better equipped to process an envelope of potential climate and impacts. Some projections suggest that without changes in California's present fresh-water delivery system, serious water shortages would take place, but that technical solutions are possible. Under a warmer climate, wildfire vulnerability is heightened markedly in some areas--estimated increases in burned area by the end of the 21st Century exceed 100% of the historical area burned in much of the forested areas of Northern California Along California coast and estuaries, projected rise in mean sea level will accelerate flooding occurrences, prompting the need for better education and preparedness. Many policymakers and agency personnel in California are factoring in results from the assessments and recognize the need for a sustained assessment process. An ongoing challenge, of course, is to achieve more engagement with a broader community of decision makers, and notably with the private sector.

  14. Postural stability changes during the prism adaptation test in patients with intermittent and constant exotropia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuo, Toshihiko; Yabuki, Akiko; Hasebe, Kayoko; Shira, Yoshie Hirai; Imai, Sayuri; Ohtsuki, Hiroshi

    2010-12-01

    Computerized static stabilometry is a clinical test in neurologic and muscular diseases to assess postural stability or body sway in a quantitative manner. The purpose of this study was to examine whether postural stability would change in the process of the prism adaptation test in patients with intermittent and constant exotropia. Postural stability was measured before the prism adaptation test and immediately, 15 minutes, and 60 minutes after the prism adaptation test by computerized static stabilometry in 17 consecutive adult patients with exotropia, including 10 patients with intermittent exotropia and seven with constant exotropia. Stabilometric parameters were compared between patients with intermittent and those with constant exotropia for 60 minutes by repeated-measures analysis of variance as statistical analysis. The Romberg quotients for the root mean square areas of the sway path (cm(2)), the area in the condition of the patients' eyes open, divided by that in the condition of the patients' eyes closed, increased significantly in the time course of the prism adaptation test and returned to the pretest level in patients with intermittent exotropia and in patients with constant exotropia (P = 0.0173). No significant difference in the Romberg quotients was noted between the patients with intermittent exotropia and those with constant exotropia. Postural instability became more pronounced by the prism adaptation test in the patients with exotropia. Binocular visual and motor perceptional changes induced by the prism adaptation test could lead to postural instability, with adaptation taking place 60 minutes after the start of the test.

  15. In Hac Vita: Increasing Nordic Homeowners' Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neset, Tina; Linnér, Björn-Ola; Navarra, carlo

    2013-01-01

    The NordForsk funded research project In Hac Vita project is a collaboration between the Nordic insurance companies If, Gjensidige, Trygg-Hansa/ Codan and Tryg Insurance, and the Top-level Research Initiative the Nordic Centre of Excellence NORD-STAR. The project concerns climate change adaptatio...... to adapt to climate change and extreme weather effects.......The NordForsk funded research project In Hac Vita project is a collaboration between the Nordic insurance companies If, Gjensidige, Trygg-Hansa/ Codan and Tryg Insurance, and the Top-level Research Initiative the Nordic Centre of Excellence NORD-STAR. The project concerns climate change adaptation...... and insurance in the Nordic countries and focuses on the design and implementation of the web-based visualisation tool VisAdaptTM, allowing homeowners to assess potential climate related risk factors that may have an impact on their living conditions, and to get an overview of existing guidelines of how...

  16. Climate change adaptation and forests in South Asia: Policy for multiple stakeholders

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deshingkar, P.

    1997-12-31

    Moving from a general understanding of the potential dangers of climate change to real policy and investment requires changes in priorities at the level of government as well as the individual. Information should be disseminated through regional technical co-operation as well as improved communication between relevant institutions within countries. Besides fulfilling scientific and economic criteria for sustainability, forest adaption strategies in South asian countries should aim to be participatory and low cost. In the short term, maximizing the utility of existing institutions and skills may be more practical. The removal of market distortions will also enhance adaptive capacity. Continued research and technological innovation must accompany efforts to change management practices. The immediate priority for donor assistance in this area is to conduct vulnerability assessments, evaluate the constraints and develop a menu of adaption options based on multi criteria analysis of different objectives

  17. Leading change : leaders experiences of navigating change and influencing their organization to become more adaptive

    OpenAIRE

    Veum, Kristine Målsnes

    2016-01-01

    Master's thesis in Counselling The purpose of this thesis is to explore how four leaders from a Norwegian engineering company experience navigating change and influencing their organization to become more adaptive. Organizational change is presented as an introduction to the theoretical field going more into adaptive leadership, organizational transformation, consciousness, self-awareness, developmental theories on stages of leadership, helping skills in the counseling field and the LIF...

  18. Incremental change, transition or transformation? optimising change pathways for climate adaptation in spatial planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roggema, R.E.; Vermeend, T.; Van den Dobbelsteen, A.A.J.F.

    2012-01-01

    In order to incorporate climate adaptation in spatial planning change is required, because climate change impacts the way we live. This implies that spatial planning, as the arranger of the spatial organisation and layout needs to be able to support this change. Current spatial planning is not yet

  19. A Web Based Geographic Information Platform to Support Urban Adaptation to Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nugent, Philip J [ORNL; Omitaomu, Olufemi A [ORNL; Parish, Esther S [ORNL; Mei, Rui [ORNL; Ernst, Kathleen M [ORNL; Absar, Mariya [ORNL

    2015-01-01

    The urban climate is changing rapidly. Therefore, climate change and its projected impacts on environmental conditions must be considered in assessing and comparing urban planning alternatives. In this paper, we present an integrated framework for urban climate adaptation tool (Urban-CAT) that will help cities to plan for, rather than react to, possible risks. Urban-CAT will be developed as a scenario planning tool that is locally relevant to existing urban decision-making processes.

  20. A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Challinor, A. J.; Watson, J.; Lobell, D. B.; Howden, S. M.; Smith, D. R.; Chhetri, N.

    2014-04-01

    Feeding a growing global population in a changing climate presents a significant challenge to society. The projected yields of crops under a range of agricultural and climatic scenarios are needed to assess food security prospects. Previous meta-analyses have summarized climate change impacts and adaptive potential as a function of temperature, but have not examined uncertainty, the timing of impacts, or the quantitative effectiveness of adaptation. Here we develop a new data set of more than 1,700 published simulations to evaluate yield impacts of climate change and adaptation. Without adaptation, losses in aggregate production are expected for wheat, rice and maize in both temperate and tropical regions by 2 °C of local warming. Crop-level adaptations increase simulated yields by an average of 7-15%, with adaptations more effective for wheat and rice than maize. Yield losses are greater in magnitude for the second half of the century than for the first. Consensus on yield decreases in the second half of the century is stronger in tropical than temperate regions, yet even moderate warming may reduce temperate crop yields in many locations. Although less is known about interannual variability than mean yields, the available data indicate that increases in yield variability are likely.

  1. Phenological plasticity will not help all species adapt to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duputié, Anne; Rutschmann, Alexis; Ronce, Ophélie; Chuine, Isabelle

    2015-08-01

    Concerns are rising about the capacity of species to adapt quickly enough to climate change. In long-lived organisms such as trees, genetic adaptation is slow, and how much phenotypic plasticity can help them cope with climate change remains largely unknown. Here, we assess whether, where and when phenological plasticity is and will be adaptive in three major European tree species. We use a process-based species distribution model, parameterized with extensive ecological data, and manipulate plasticity to suppress phenological variations due to interannual, geographical and trend climate variability, under current and projected climatic conditions. We show that phenological plasticity is not always adaptive and mostly affects fitness at the margins of the species' distribution and climatic niche. Under current climatic conditions, phenological plasticity constrains the northern range limit of oak and beech and the southern range limit of pine. Under future climatic conditions, phenological plasticity becomes strongly adaptive towards the trailing edges of beech and oak, but severely constrains the range and niche of pine. Our results call for caution when interpreting geographical variation in trait means as adaptive, and strongly point towards species distribution models explicitly taking phenotypic plasticity into account when forecasting species distribution under climate change scenarios. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. The political ecology of climate change adaptation livelihoods, agrarian change and the conflicts of development

    CERN Document Server

    Taylor, Marcus

    2014-01-01

    This book provides the first systematic critique of the concept of climate change adaptation within the field of international development. Drawing on a reworked political ecology framework, it argues that climate is not something 'out there' that we adapt to. Instead, it is part of the social and biophysical forces through which our lived environments are actively yet unevenly produced. From this original foundation, the book challenges us to rethink the concepts of climate change, vulnerability, resilience and adaptive capacity in transformed ways. With case studies drawn from Pakistan, Indi

  3. Climate change impacts and adaptation: a Canadian perspective. Transportation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-08-01

    A brief summary of research over the past five years in the field of climate change, as it relates to key sectors in Canada, is presented in the report entitled: Climate change impacts and adaptation: a Canadian perspective. The emphasis of this chapter is on transportation, the role of adaptation in reducing vulnerabilities, and capitalizing on potential opportunities. Other sectors, such as fisheries, the coastal zone, tourism and human health might be affected by decisions made with regard to transportation. The areas that seem most vulnerable to climate change in transportation include northern ice roads, Great Lakes shipping, coastal infrastructure threatened by sea-level rise, and infrastructure located on permafrost. Most of the attention has been devoted to infrastructure and operations issues in northern Canada, despite most of the transportation activities taking place in southern Canada. Milder and or shorter winters might lead to savings, but additional knowledge is required before quantitative estimates can be made. The changed frequency of extreme climate events, and or changes in precipitation may influence other weather hazards or inefficiencies. If Canadians are prepared to be proactive, the report indicated that the effects of climate change on transportation may be largely manageable. 77 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs.

  4. The North Cascadia Adaptation Partnership: A Science-Management Collaboration for Responding to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Crystal L. Raymond

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The U.S. Forest Service (USFS and National Park Service (NPS have highlighted climate change as an agency priority and issued direction to administrative units for responding to climate change. In response, the USFS and NPS initiated the North Cascadia Adaptation Partnership (NCAP in 2010. The goals of the NCAP were to build an inclusive partnership, increase climate change awareness, assess vulnerability, and develop science-based adaptation strategies to reduce these vulnerabilities. The NCAP expanded previous science-management partnerships on federal lands to a larger, more ecologically and geographically complex region and extended the approach to a broader range of stakeholders. The NCAP focused on two national forests and two national parks in the North Cascades Range, Washington (USA, a total land area of 2.4 million ha, making it the largest science-management partnership of its kind. The NCAP assessed climate change vulnerability for four resource sectors (hydrology and access; vegetation and ecological disturbance; wildlife; and fish and developed adaptation options for each sector. The NCAP process has proven to be a successful approach for implementing climate change adaptation across a region and can be emulated by other land management agencies in North America and beyond.

  5. Climate Change Adaptation Challenges and EO Business Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez-Baeza, Ernesto; Mathieu, Pierre-Philippe; Bansal, Rahul; Del Rey, Maria; Mohamed, Ebrahim; Ruiz, Paz; Signes, Marcos

    Climate change is one of the defining challenges of the 21st century, but is no longer a matter of just scientific concern. It encompasses economics, sociology, global politics as well as national and local politics, law, health and environmental security, etc. The challenge of facing the impacts of climate change is often framed in terms of two potential paths that civilization might take: mitigation and adaptation. On the one hand, mitigation involves reducing the magnitude of climate change itself and is composed of emissions reductions and geoengineering. On the other hand and by contrast, adaptation involves efforts to limit our vulnerability to climate change impacts through various measures. It refers to our ability to adjust ourselves to climate change -including climate variability and extremes, to moderate potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. Therefore, we are now faced with a double challenge: next to deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, we also need to adapt to the changing climate conditions. The use of satellites to monitor processes and trends at the global scale is essential in the context of climate change. Earth Observation has the potential to improve our predictive vision and to advance climate models. Space sciences and technologies constitute a significant issue in Education and Public Awareness of Science. Space missions face the probably largest scientific and industrial challenges of humanity. It is thus a fact that space drives innovation in the major breakthrough and cutting edge technological advances of mankind (techniques, processes, new products, … as well as in markets and business models). Technology and innovation is the basis of all space activities. Space agencies offer an entire range of space-related activities - from space science and environmental monitoring to industrial competitiveness and end-user services. More specifically, Earth Observation satellites have a unique

  6. Clean Energy and Water : an Assessment of Services for Adaptation ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    This project aims to assess the potential of - and barriers to - the use of decentralized renewable energy technologies, as opposed to fossil-fuel based large-scale-systems. Independent researchers will ... Clean energy and water : low-cost climate adaptation options for East Africa; draft journal article. Articles de revue.

  7. Clean Energy and Water : an Assessment of Services for Adaptation ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    This project aims to assess the potential of - and barriers to - the use of decentralized renewable energy technologies, as opposed to fossil-fuel based large-scale-systems. Independent researchers will ... Articles de revue. Clean energy and water : low-cost climate adaptation options for East Africa; draft journal article ...

  8. Water Demands with Two Adaptation Responses to Climate Change in a Mexican Irrigation District

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ojeda, W.; Iñiguez-Covarrubias, M.; Rojano, A.

    2012-12-01

    It is well documented that climate change is inevitable and that farmers need to adapt to changes in projected climate. Changes in water demands for a Mexican irrigation district were assessed using an irrigation scheduling model. The impact of two adaptations actions on water demands were estimated and compared with a baseline scenario. Wet and dry cropping plans were selected from the last 15 water years with actual climatology (1961-1990) taken as reference and three A1B climate change projection periods P1, P2 and P3 (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2098). Projected precipitation and air temperature (medium, maximum and minimum) data were obtained through weighted averages of the best CGCM projections for Mexico, available at the IPCC data distribution center, using the Reliability Ensemble Averaging method (REA). Two adaptation farmers' responses were analyzed: use of longer season varieties and reduction of planting dates toward colder season as warming intensifies in the future. An annual accumulated ETo value of 1554 mm was estimated for the base period P0. Cumulative and Daily irrigations demands were generated for each agricultural season using the four climate projection series and considering adaptations actions. Figure 1 integrates in a unique net flow curve for the Fall-Winter season under selected adaptations actions. The simulation results indicated that for mid century (Period P2), the use of longer-season cultivars (AV) will have more pronounced effect in daily net flow based than the reduction of planting season (APS) as climate change intensifies during present century. Without adaptation (WA), the increase in temperature will shorten the growing season of all annual crops, generating a peak shift with respect to reference case (WA-P0). Combined adoptions of adaptation actions (AP+V) can generate higher, peak and cumulative, crop water requirements than actual values as Figure 1 shows. There are clear trends that without adaptations, water

  9. 76 FR 12945 - Instructions for Implementing Climate Change Adaptation Planning in Accordance With Executive...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-09

    ... QUALITY Instructions for Implementing Climate Change Adaptation Planning in Accordance With Executive Order 13514 AGENCY: Council on Environmental Quality. ACTION: Notice of Availability of Climate Change... (CEQ) is issuing instructions to Federal agencies for integrating climate change adaptation into agency...

  10. Biodiversity and agricultural sustainagility: from assessment to adaptive management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jackson, L.; Noordwijk, van M.; Bengtsson, J.; Foster, W.; Lipper, L.; Pulleman, M.M.; Said, M.; Snaddon, J.; Vodouhe, R.

    2010-01-01

    Rapid changes in land use, food systems, and livelihoods require social–ecological systems that keep multiple options open and prepare for future unpredictability. Sustainagility refers to the properties and assets of a system that sustain the ability (agility) of agents to adapt and meet their

  11. Adaptive capacity indicators to assess sustainability of urban water systems - Current application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spiller, Marc

    2016-11-01

    Sustainability is commonly assessed along environmental, societal, economic and technological dimensions. A crucial aspect of sustainability is that inter-generational equality must be ensured. This requires that sustainability is attained in the here and now as well as into the future. Therefore, what is perceived as 'sustainable' changes as a function of societal opinion and technological and scientific progress. A concept that describes the ability of systems to change is adaptive capacity. Literature suggests that the ability of systems to adapt is an integral part of sustainable development. This paper demonstrates that indicators measuring adaptive capacity are underrepresented in current urban water sustainability studies. Furthermore, it is discussed under which sustainability dimensions adaptive capacity indicators are lacking and why. Of the >90 indicators analysed, only nine are adaptive capacity indicators, of which six are socio-cultural, two technological, one economical and none environmental. This infrequent use of adaptive capacity indicators in sustainability assessments led to the conclusion that the challenge of dynamic and uncertain urban water systems is, with the exception of the socio-cultural dimension, not yet sufficiently reflected in the application of urban water sustainability indicators. This raises concerns about the progress towards urban water systems that can transform as a response variation and change. Therefore, research should focus on developing methods and indicators that can define, evaluate and quantify adaptive capacity under the economic, environmental and technical dimension of sustainability. Furthermore, it should be evaluated whether sustainability frameworks that focus on the control processes of urban water systems are more suitable for measuring adaptive capacity, than the assessments along environmental, economic, socio-cultural and technological dimensions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Handling preference heterogeneity for river services' adaptation to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreopoulos, Dimitrios; Damigos, Dimitrios; Comiti, Francesco; Fischer, Christian

    2015-09-01

    Climate projection models for the Southern Mediterranean basin indicate a strong drought trend. This pattern is anticipated to affect a range of services derived from river ecosystems and consecutively deteriorate the sectoral outputs and household welfare. This paper aims to evaluate local residents' adaptation preferences for the Piave River basin in Italy. A Discrete Choice Experiment accounting for adaptation scenarios of the Piave River services was conducted and the collected data were econometrically analyzed using Random Parameters Logit, Latent Class and Covariance Heterogeneity models. In terms of policy-relevant outcomes, the analysis indicates that respondents are willing to pay for adaptation plans. This attitude is reflected on the compensating surplus to sustain the current state of the Piave, which corresponds to a monthly contribution of 80€ per household. From an econometric point of view, the results show that it is not sufficient to take solely into account general heterogeneity, provided that distinct treatment of the heterogeneity produces rather different welfare estimates. This implies that analysts should examine a set of criteria when deciding on how to better approach heterogeneity for each empirical data set. Overall, non-market values of environmental services should be considered when formulating cost-effective adaptation measures for river systems undergoing climate change effects and appropriate heterogeneity approximation could render these values unbiased and accurate. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Urban Planning and Climate Change: Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fulvia Pinto

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is a current phenomenon: the temperatures rise, rainfall patterns are changing, glaciers melt and the average global sea level is rising. It is expected that these changes will continue and that the extreme weather events, such as floods and droughts, will become more frequent and intense. The impact and vulnerability factors for nature, for the economy and for our health are different, depending on the territorial, social and economic aspects. The current scientific debate is focused on the need to formulate effective policies for adaptation and mitigation to climate change. The city plays an important role in this issue: it emits the most greenhouse gas emissions (more than 60% of the world population currently lives in urban areas and the city is more exposed and vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Urban planning and territorial governance play a crucial role in this context: the international debate on the sustainability of urban areas is increasing. It’s necessary to adapt the tools of building regulations to increase the quality of energy - environment of the cities.

  14. Subjective quality assessment of an adaptive video streaming model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavakoli, Samira; Brunnström, Kjell; Wang, Kun; Andrén, Börje; Shahid, Muhammad; Garcia, Narciso

    2014-01-01

    With the recent increased popularity and high usage of HTTP Adaptive Streaming (HAS) techniques, various studies have been carried out in this area which generally focused on the technical enhancement of HAS technology and applications. However, a lack of common HAS standard led to multiple proprietary approaches which have been developed by major Internet companies. In the emerging MPEG-DASH standard the packagings of the video content and HTTP syntax have been standardized; but all the details of the adaptation behavior are left to the client implementation. Nevertheless, to design an adaptation algorithm which optimizes the viewing experience of the enduser, the multimedia service providers need to know about the Quality of Experience (QoE) of different adaptation schemes. Taking this into account, the objective of this experiment was to study the QoE of a HAS-based video broadcast model. The experiment has been carried out through a subjective study of the end user response to various possible clients' behavior for changing the video quality taking different QoE-influence factors into account. The experimental conclusions have made a good insight into the QoE of different adaptation schemes which can be exploited by HAS clients for designing the adaptation algorithms.

  15. Strengthening Sustainable Water Resources Adaptive Capacity To Climate Change, A Case Study in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tung, C.; Chen, S.; Liu, T.; Yu, P.

    2008-12-01

    Climate change refers to the long-term variation, which may exacerbate short-term climate variability and more extreme events, and then may impact on human society and natural environment. Socioeconomic development is dependent on adequate water resources, but climate change may impact on such supply system, including available streamflow, groundwater, irrigation requirement and also impact on the sustainability for regional water alimentation. The purposes of this study are to assess the climate change impacts on regional water supply systems and to propose response strategies strengthening adaptive capacity to achieve sustainable water uses. To simulate the processes of surface water, a physical model, Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model, is used. A system dynamics approach using a specialized software tool, Vensim, is used to simulate a water supply system of the Danshuei river watershed in Taiwan to analyze the climate impacts on sustainable water resource utilization. In order to understand the improvement of adaptive capacity for all response strategies, adjusting parameters on a system dynamics model and a definition of a sustainable index is necessary to recognize the benefits of every response strategy. To make the adaptive strategies practical, the selection of adaptive strategies according to the governmental plan such as re-allocation of regional water resources and increase of water supply capacity will be discussed in the end. Hopefully, the adaptive capacity will be enhanced to mitigate climate change impacts on water supply system to achieve sustainable water uses.

  16. Costing agriculture's adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Downing, Tom [Global Climate Adaptation Partnership (United Kingdom); Dysznski, Jillian [Stockholm Environment Institute (Sweden); Chambwera, Muyeye; Venton, Courtenay Cabot

    2011-11-15

    Climate change poses a major challenge to agriculture. Rising temperatures will change crop growing seasons. And changing rainfall patterns will affect yield potentials. Underinvestment over the past 20 years has left the agricultural sector in many developing countries ill-prepared for the changes ahead. Policymakers and researchers alike acknowledge the need for adaptation within agriculture. But what action should be taken? And, more importantly, how much will it cost? Five case studies — of specific agricultural systems in Bangladesh, Malawi, Nepal, Rwanda and Tanzania — provide fresh insights into the options available and likely costs, which are at least US$20,000 for an integrated cropping system in a village, and may well be more than US$100 million for a whole sector such as livestock in a country.

  17. Parks, people, and change: the importance of multistakeholder engagement in adaptation planning for conserved areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corrine N. Knapp

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change challenges the traditional goals and conservation strategies of protected areas, necessitating adaptation to changing conditions. Denali National Park and Preserve (Denali in south central Alaska, USA, is a vast landscape that is responding to climate change in ways that will impact both ecological resources and local communities. Local observations help to inform understanding of climate change and adaptation planning, but whose knowledge is most important to consider? For this project we interviewed long-term Denali staff, scientists, subsistence community members, bus drivers, and business owners to assess what types of observations each can contribute, how climate change is impacting each, and what they think the National Park Service should do to adapt. The project shows that each type of long-term observer has different types of observations, but that those who depend more directly on natural resources for their livelihoods have more and different observations than those who do not. These findings suggest that engaging multiple groups of stakeholders who interact with the park in distinct ways adds substantially to the information provided by Denali staff and scientists and offers a broader foundation for adaptation planning. It also suggests that traditional protected area paradigms that fail to learn from and foster appropriate engagement of people may be maladaptive in the context of climate change.

  18. Aiding cities in their work on climate change adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, P.

    2013-12-01

    Urban areas around the world are at the frontlines of climate change because of their enormous aggregate populations and because of their vulnerability to multiple climate change stressors. Half of our planet's 7.1 billion inhabitants currently reside in cities with six billion people projected to call cities home by 2050. In the U.S. and much of the rest of the world, cities are warming at twice the rate of the planet. Superimposed on urban climate changes driven by global warming are the regional effects of urban heat domes driven by large differences in land use, building materials, and vegetation between cities and their rural surroundings. In megacities - those with populations exceeding 10 million people - such as Tokyo - urban heat domes can contribute to daytime temperatures that soar to more than 11°C higher than their rural surroundings. In addition, the localized warming can alter patterns of precipitation in metropolitan regions and perhaps even influence the frequency and severity of severe weather. Municipal officials need to accelerate their efforts to prepare and implement climate change adaptation strategies but what are the institutions that can help enable this work? Informal science education centers can play vital roles because they are overwhelmingly in urban settings and because they can act as ';competent outsiders.' They are neither responsible for conducting climate change research nor accountable for implementing public policies to address climate change. They instead can play an essential role of ensuring that solid science informs the formulation of good practices and policies. It is incumbent, therefore, for informal science education centers to accelerate and enhance their abilities to help translate scientific insights into on-the-ground actions. This session will explore the potential roles of informal science education centers to advance climate change adaptation through a review of the urban climate change education initiatives

  19. [Adaptive changes of Zebrafish (Danio rerio) to anaerobic exercise training].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ming-jing; Wang, Zhi-jian

    2013-06-01

    To explore adaptive changes of the Zebrafish (Danio rerio) to anaerobic exercise training as well as to collect basic data of molecular mechanisms of adaption to anaerobic exercise training among this fish, we investigated the influences of 4 weeks of anaerobic exercise training on the behavior, morphology, growth, muscle biochemical components and metabolic enzyme activities of the Zebrafish. Our results indicated that individual's daily activity level declined after 4 weeks training and they preferred to swim together more frequently. Both body length and weight gain decreased, allowing the fish to adapt to the increased locomotion. Similarly, glycogen in muscles increased and exercise endurance also strengthened due to the enhancement of energy storage. Moreover, although the activity of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) in muscle has increased, the activity of citrate synthase (CS) decreased. Taken together, these results suggest that both the ability of anaerobic exercise and anaerobic metabolism of Zebrafish can in fact be enhanced by training, and the tangible changes that we could measure were retained, but only for a limited time.

  20. Using Web GIS "Climate" for Adaptation to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordova, Yulia; Martynova, Yulia; Shulgina, Tamara

    2015-04-01

    A work is devoted to the application of an information-computational Web GIS "Climate" developed by joint team of the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS and Tomsk State University to raise awareness about current and future climate change as a basis for further adaptation. Web-GIS "Climate» (http://climate.scert.ru/) based on modern concepts of Web 2.0 provides opportunities to study regional climate change and its consequences by providing access to climate and weather models, a large set of geophysical data and means of processing and visualization. Also, the system is used for the joint development of software applications by distributed research teams, research based on these applications and undergraduate and graduate students training. In addition, the system capabilities allow creating information resources to raise public awareness about climate change, its causes and consequences, which is a necessary step for the subsequent adaptation to these changes. Basic information course on climate change is placed in the public domain and is aimed at local population. Basic concepts and problems of modern climate change and its possible consequences are set out and illustrated in accessible language. Particular attention is paid to regional climate changes. In addition to the information part, the course also includes a selection of links to popular science network resources on current issues in Earth Sciences and a number of practical tasks to consolidate the material. These tasks are performed for a particular territory. Within the tasks users need to analyze the prepared within the "Climate" map layers and answer questions of direct interest to the public: "How did the minimum value of winter temperatures change in your area?", "What are the dynamics of maximum summer temperatures?", etc. Carrying out the analysis of the dynamics of climate change contributes to a better understanding of climate processes and further adaptation