Markov chain aggregation for agent-based models
Banisch, Sven
2016-01-01
This self-contained text develops a Markov chain approach that makes the rigorous analysis of a class of microscopic models that specify the dynamics of complex systems at the individual level possible. It presents a general framework of aggregation in agent-based and related computational models, one which makes use of lumpability and information theory in order to link the micro and macro levels of observation. The starting point is a microscopic Markov chain description of the dynamical process in complete correspondence with the dynamical behavior of the agent-based model (ABM), which is obtained by considering the set of all possible agent configurations as the state space of a huge Markov chain. An explicit formal representation of a resulting “micro-chain” including microscopic transition rates is derived for a class of models by using the random mapping representation of a Markov process. The type of probability distribution used to implement the stochastic part of the model, which defines the upd...
Modelling and genetic algorithm based optimisation of inverse supply chain
Bányai, T.
2009-04-01
(Recycling of household appliances with emphasis on reuse options). The purpose of this paper is the presentation of a possible method for avoiding the unnecessary environmental risk and landscape use through unprovoked large supply chain of collection systems of recycling processes. In the first part of the paper the author presents the mathematical model of recycling related collection systems (applied especially for wastes of electric and electronic products) and in the second part of the work a genetic algorithm based optimisation method will be demonstrated, by the aid of which it is possible to determine the optimal structure of the inverse supply chain from the point of view economical, ecological and logistic objective functions. The model of the inverse supply chain is based on a multi-level, hierarchical collection system. In case of this static model it is assumed that technical conditions are permanent. The total costs consist of three parts: total infrastructure costs, total material handling costs and environmental risk costs. The infrastructure-related costs are dependent only on the specific fixed costs and the specific unit costs of the operation points (collection, pre-treatment, treatment, recycling and reuse plants). The costs of warehousing and transportation are represented by the material handling related costs. The most important factors determining the level of environmental risk cost are the number of out of time recycled (treated or reused) products, the number of supply chain objects and the length of transportation routes. The objective function is the minimization of the total cost taking into consideration the constraints. However a lot of research work discussed the design of supply chain [8], but most of them concentrate on linear cost functions. In the case of this model non-linear cost functions were used. The non-linear cost functions and the possible high number of objects of the inverse supply chain leaded to the problem of choosing a
The Development and Empirical Validation of an E-based Supply Chain Strategy Optimization Model
Kotzab, Herbert; Skjoldager, Niels; Vinum, Thorkil
2003-01-01
Examines the formulation of supply chain strategies in complex environments. Argues that current state‐of‐the‐art e‐business and supply chain management, combined into the concept of e‐SCM, as well as the use of transaction cost theory, network theory and resource‐based theory, altogether can...... be used to form a model for analyzing supply chains with the purpose of reducing the uncertainty of formulating supply chain strategies. Presents e‐supply chain strategy optimization model (e‐SOM) as a way to analyze supply chains in a structured manner as regards strategic preferences for supply chain...... design, relations and resources in the chains with the ultimate purpose of enabling the formulation of optimal, executable strategies for specific supply chains. Uses research results for a specific supply chain to validate the usefulness of the model....
Model-Based Engineering for Supply Chain Risk Management
2015-09-30
Design Language (AADL), which has tools for modeling and compliance verification, provides an effective capability to model and describe all component...the outsourced units in a supply chain can be an impossible task where the product might be composed of 10,000 individual components at the 4th or...can be used to guide the process of monitoring the award and assurance of the outsourced work. Safety-critical verification of cyber-physical
A Formal Model of Trust Chain based on Multi-level Security Policy
Kong Xiangying
2013-01-01
Trust chain is the core technology of trusted computing. A formal model of trust chain based on finite state automata theory is proposed. We use communicating sequential processes to describe the system state transition in trust chain and by combining with multi-level security strategy give the definition of trust system and trust decision theorem of trust chain transfer which is proved meantime. Finally, a prototype system is given to show the efficiency of the model.
Information Exchange in Global Logistics Chains : An application for Model-based Auditing (abstract)
Veenstra, A.W.; Hulstijn, J.; Christiaanse, R.; Tan, Y.
2013-01-01
An integrated data pipeline has been proposed to meet requirements for supply chain visibility and control. How can data integration be used for risk assessment, monitoring and control in global supply chains? We argue that concepts from model-based auditing can be used to model the ‘ideal’ flow of
Information exchange in global logistics chains : An application for model-based auditing,
Veenstra, A.W.; Hulstijn, J.; Christiaanse, R.M.J.; Tan, Y.
2013-01-01
An integrated data pipeline has been proposed to meet requirements for visibility, supervision and control in global supply chains. How can data integration be used for risk assessment, monitoring and control in global supply chains? We argue that concepts from model-based auditing can be used to
A Tuned Value Chain Model for University Based Public Research Organisation. Case Lut Cst.
Vesa Karvonen
2012-12-01
Full Text Available The Porter´s value chain model was introduced for strategic business purposes. During the last decades also Universities and University based institutes have started to use actions similar to private business concepts. A University based institute is not independent actor like company but there are interest groups who are expecting them to act like they would be. This article discusses about the possibility of utilize tuned value chain to public research organizations (PRO. Also the interactions of tuned value chain model to existing industrial network are discussed. The case study object is the Centre for Separation Technology (CST at Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT in Finland.
Slats, P.A.; Bhola, B.; Evers, J.J.M.; Dijkhuizen, G.
1995-01-01
Logistic chain modelling is very important in improving the overall performance of the total logistic chain. Logistic models provide support for a large range of applications, such as analysing bottlenecks, improving customer service, configuring new logistic chains and adapting existing chains to
A Tuned Value Chain Model for University Based Public Research Organisation. Case Lut Cst.
Vesa Karvonen; Matti Karvonen; Andrzej Kraslawski
2012-01-01
The Porter´s value chain model was introduced for strategic business purposes. During the last decades also Universities and University based institutes have started to use actions similar to private business concepts. A University based institute is not independent actor like company but there are interest groups who are expecting them to act like they would be. This article discusses about the possibility of utilize tuned value chain to public research organizations (PRO). Also the interact...
A Tuned Value Chain Model for University Based Public Research Organisation: Case Lut Cst
Karvonen, Vesa; Karvonen, Matti; Kraslawski, Andrzej
2012-01-01
The Porter´s value chain model was introduced for strategic business purposes. During the last decades also Universities and University based institutes have started to use actions similar to private business concepts. A University based institute is not independent actor like company but there are interest groups who are expecting them to act like they would be. This article discusses about the possibility of utilize tuned value chain to public research organizations (PRO). Also the interact...
A review of agent-based modeling approach in the supply chain collaboration context
Arvitrida, N. I.
2018-04-01
Collaboration is considered as the key aspect of supply chain management (SCM) success. This issue has been addressed by many studies in recent years, but there are still few research employs agent-based modeling (ABM) approach to study business partnerships in SCM. This paper reviews the use of ABM in modeling collaboration in supply chains and inform the scope of ABM application in the existing literature. The review reveals that ABM can be an effective tool to address various aspects in supply chain relationships, but its applications in SCM studies are still limited. Moreover, where ABM is applied in the SCM context, most of the studies focus on software architecture rather than analyzing the supply chain issues. This paper also provides insights to SCM researchers about the opportunity uses of ABM in studying complexity in supply chain collaboration.
A Probabilistic Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting Model Based on the Markov Chain
Francesca Gagliardi
2017-07-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes a short-term water demand forecasting method based on the use of the Markov chain. This method provides estimates of future demands by calculating probabilities that the future demand value will fall within pre-assigned intervals covering the expected total variability. More specifically, two models based on homogeneous and non-homogeneous Markov chains were developed and presented. These models, together with two benchmark models (based on artificial neural network and naïve methods, were applied to three real-life case studies for the purpose of forecasting the respective water demands from 1 to 24 h ahead. The results obtained show that the model based on a homogeneous Markov chain provides more accurate short-term forecasts than the one based on a non-homogeneous Markov chain, which is in line with the artificial neural network model. Both Markov chain models enable probabilistic information regarding the stochastic demand forecast to be easily obtained.
A decision model for cost effective design of biomass based green energy supply chains.
Yılmaz Balaman, Şebnem; Selim, Hasan
2015-09-01
The core driver of this study is to deal with the design of anaerobic digestion based biomass to energy supply chains in a cost effective manner. In this concern, a decision model is developed. The model is based on fuzzy multi objective decision making in order to simultaneously optimize multiple economic objectives and tackle the inherent uncertainties in the parameters and decision makers' aspiration levels for the goals. The viability of the decision model is explored with computational experiments on a real-world biomass to energy supply chain and further analyses are performed to observe the effects of different conditions. To this aim, scenario analyses are conducted to investigate the effects of energy crop utilization and operational costs on supply chain structure and performance measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
H∞ Control of Supply Chain Based on Switched Model of Stock Level
Junzhi Luo
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the problem of H∞ control for a class of discrete supply chain systems. A new method based on network control technique is presented to address this issue. Supply chain systems are modeled as networked systems with stochastic time delay. Sufficient conditions for H∞ controller design are given in terms of a set of linear matrix inequalities, based on which the mean-square asymptotic stability as well as H∞ performance is satisfied for such systems. Simulation results are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Confronting uncertainty in model-based geostatistics using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation
Minasny, B.; Vrugt, J.A.; McBratney, A.B.
2011-01-01
This paper demonstrates for the first time the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation for parameter inference in model-based soil geostatistics. We implemented the recently developed DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm to jointly summarize the posterior
On dynamic selection of households for direct marketing based on Markov chain models with memory
Otter, Pieter W.
A simple, dynamic selection procedure is proposed, based on conditional, expected profits using Markov chain models with memory. The method is easy to apply, only frequencies and mean values have to be calculated or estimated. The method is empirically illustrated using a data set from a charitable
Teaching Supply Chain Management Complexities: A SCOR Model Based Classroom Simulation
Webb, G. Scott; Thomas, Stephanie P.; Liao-Troth, Sara
2014-01-01
The SCOR (Supply Chain Operations Reference) Model Supply Chain Classroom Simulation is an in-class experiential learning activity that helps students develop a holistic understanding of the processes and challenges of supply chain management. The simulation has broader learning objectives than other supply chain related activities such as the…
Modeling of China's cassava-based bioethanol supply chain operation and coordination
Ye, Fei; Li, Yina; Lin, Qiang; Zhan, Yuanzhu
2017-01-01
As a useful alternative to petroleum-based fuel, biofuels are playing an increasingly important role due to their economic, environmental, and social benefits. Cassava is viewed as an important and highly attractive nonedible feedstock for the production of biofuels. In this paper, a game-theoretic approach is proposed to explore decision behavior within a cassava-based bioethanol supply chain under the condition of yield uncertainty. In addition, a production cost sharing contract is proposed to overcome the double marginalization effect due to competition between supply chain players. With data from China's cassava-based bioethanol industry, the paper analyzes the effects of the farmer's capacity, risk aversion, yield uncertainty, the conversion ratio, the bioethanol's market price and ethanol plant's operation cost on optimal decisions within the supply chain and its overall performance. In addition, the effectiveness of the proposed production cost sharing contract is tested, and the results show that it can enhance the supply of cassava, increase the utility of the whole supply chain and reduce the level of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The implications are set out for policy makers regarding how to promote the development of the biofuel industry, to guarantee the supply of feedstock, to reduce GHG emissions and to promote rural development. - Highlights: • Decision behavior within the cassava-based bioethanol supply chain is modeled. • Yield uncertainty and farmers' capacity and risk aversion are considered. • A production cost sharing contract is proposed to coordinate the supply chain. • The cassava supply, the utility and reduction on GHG emissions are increased. • Policy implications regarding how to promote biofuel supply chains are set out.
Adjoint sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains - I: Theory
Cacuci, D. G.; Cacuci, D. G.; Ionescu-Bujor, M.
2008-01-01
The development of the adjoint sensitivity analysis procedure (ASAP) for generic dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains is presented, together with applications of this procedure to the analysis of several systems of increasing complexity. The general theory is presented in Part I of this work and is accompanied by a paradigm application to the dynamic reliability analysis of a simple binary component, namely a pump functioning on an 'up/down' cycle until it fails irreparably. This paradigm example admits a closed form analytical solution, which permits a clear illustration of the main characteristics of the ASAP for Markov chains. In particular, it is shown that the ASAP for Markov chains presents outstanding computational advantages over other procedures currently in use for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the dynamic reliability of large-scale systems. This conclusion is further underscored by the large-scale applications presented in Part II. (authors)
Adjoint sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains - I: Theory
Cacuci, D. G. [Commiss Energy Atom, Direct Energy Nucl, Saclay, (France); Cacuci, D. G. [Univ Karlsruhe, Inst Nucl Technol and Reactor Safety, D-76021 Karlsruhe, (Germany); Ionescu-Bujor, M. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Fus Program, D-76021 Karlsruhe, (Germany)
2008-07-01
The development of the adjoint sensitivity analysis procedure (ASAP) for generic dynamic reliability models based on Markov chains is presented, together with applications of this procedure to the analysis of several systems of increasing complexity. The general theory is presented in Part I of this work and is accompanied by a paradigm application to the dynamic reliability analysis of a simple binary component, namely a pump functioning on an 'up/down' cycle until it fails irreparably. This paradigm example admits a closed form analytical solution, which permits a clear illustration of the main characteristics of the ASAP for Markov chains. In particular, it is shown that the ASAP for Markov chains presents outstanding computational advantages over other procedures currently in use for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the dynamic reliability of large-scale systems. This conclusion is further underscored by the large-scale applications presented in Part II. (authors)
Risk of the Maritime Supply Chain System Based on Interpretative Structural Model
Jiang He
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Marine transportation is the most important transport mode of in the international trade, but the maritime supply chain is facing with many risks. At present, most of the researches on the risk of the maritime supply chain focus on the risk identification and risk management, and barely carry on the quantitative analysis of the logical structure of each influencing factor. This paper uses the interpretative structure model to analysis the maritime supply chain risk system. On the basis of comprehensive literature analysis and expert opinion, this paper puts forward 16 factors of maritime supply chain risk system. Using the interpretative structure model to construct maritime supply chain risk system, and then optimize the model. The model analyzes the structure of the maritime supply chain risk system and its forming process, and provides a scientific basis for the controlling the maritime supply chain risk, and puts forward some corresponding suggestions for the prevention and control the maritime supply chain risk.
An Approach of Diagnosis Based On The Hidden Markov Chains Model
Karim Bouamrane
2008-07-01
Full Text Available Diagnosis is a key element in industrial system maintenance process performance. A diagnosis tool is proposed allowing the maintenance operators capitalizing on the knowledge of their trade and subdividing it for better performance improvement and intervention effectiveness within the maintenance process service. The Tool is based on the Markov Chain Model and more precisely the Hidden Markov Chains (HMC which has the system failures determination advantage, taking into account the causal relations, stochastic context modeling of their dynamics and providing a relevant diagnosis help by their ability of dubious information use. Since the FMEA method is a well adapted artificial intelligence field, the modeling with Markov Chains is carried out with its assistance. Recently, a dynamic programming recursive algorithm, called 'Viterbi Algorithm', is being used in the Hidden Markov Chains field. This algorithm provides as input to the HMC a set of system observed effects and generates at exit the various causes having caused the loss from one or several system functions.
Research on manufacturing service behavior modeling based on block chain theory
Zhao, Gang; Zhang, Guangli; Liu, Ming; Yu, Shuqin; Liu, Yali; Zhang, Xu
2018-04-01
According to the attribute characteristics of processing craft, the manufacturing service behavior is divided into service attribute, basic attribute, process attribute, resource attribute. The attribute information model of manufacturing service is established. The manufacturing service behavior information is successfully divided into public and private domain. Additionally, the block chain technology is introduced, and the information model of manufacturing service based on block chain principle is established, which solves the problem of sharing and secreting information of processing behavior, and ensures that data is not tampered with. Based on the key pairing verification relationship, the selective publishing mechanism for manufacturing information is established, achieving the traceability of product data, guarantying the quality of processing quality.
Sentence‐Chain Based Seq2seq Model for Corpus Expansion
Euisok Chung
2017-08-01
Full Text Available This study focuses on a method for sequential data augmentation in order to alleviate data sparseness problems. Specifically, we present corpus expansion techniques for enhancing the coverage of a language model. Recent recurrent neural network studies show that a seq2seq model can be applied for addressing language generation issues; it has the ability to generate new sentences from given input sentences. We present a method of corpus expansion using a sentence‐chain based seq2seq model. For training the seq2seq model, sentence chains are used as triples. The first two sentences in a triple are used for the encoder of the seq2seq model, while the last sentence becomes a target sequence for the decoder. Using only internal resources, evaluation results show an improvement of approximately 7.6% relative perplexity over a baseline language model of Korean text. Additionally, from a comparison with a previous study, the sentence chain approach reduces the size of the training data by 38.4% while generating 1.4‐times the number of n‐grams with superior performance for English text.
Study on the Cooperative E-commerce Model between Enterprises based on the Value Chain
XU Jun[1,2; LIU Xiaoxing[1
2015-01-01
The real e-commerce between enterprises is based on the internal departments of enterprises and the cooperative interaction between enterprise and its partners. In this paper, on the basis of the theory of value chain, 11 cooperative e-commerce models between enterprises have been classified according to the activities of the cooperation between enterprises, and then every cooperative e-commerce model between enterprises is discussed. In practice, cooperative e-commerce between enterprises can be a combination of one or more e-commerce models between enterprises.
Li, Qi
As a potential substitute for petroleum-based fuel, second generation biofuels are playing an increasingly important role due to their economic, environmental, and social benefits. With the rapid development of biofuel industry, there has been an increasing literature on the techno-economic analysis and supply chain design for biofuel production based on a variety of production pathways. A recently proposed production pathway of advanced biofuel is to convert biomass to bio-oil at widely distributed small-scale fast pyrolysis plants, then gasify the bio-oil to syngas and upgrade the syngas to transportation fuels in centralized biorefinery. This thesis aims to investigate two types of assessments on this bio-oil gasification pathway: techno-economic analysis based on process modeling and literature data; supply chain design with a focus on optimal decisions for number of facilities to build, facility capacities and logistic decisions considering uncertainties. A detailed process modeling with corn stover as feedstock and liquid fuels as the final products is presented. Techno-economic analysis of the bio-oil gasification pathway is also discussed to assess the economic feasibility. Some preliminary results show a capital investment of 438 million dollar and minimum fuel selling price (MSP) of $5.6 per gallon of gasoline equivalent. The sensitivity analysis finds that MSP is most sensitive to internal rate of return (IRR), biomass feedstock cost, and fixed capital cost. A two-stage stochastic programming is formulated to solve the supply chain design problem considering uncertainties in biomass availability, technology advancement, and biofuel price. The first-stage makes the capital investment decisions including the locations and capacities of the decentralized fast pyrolysis plants and the centralized biorefinery while the second-stage determines the biomass and biofuel flows. The numerical results and case study illustrate that considering uncertainties can be
Discrete-Choice Modeling Of Non-Working Women’s Trip-Chaining Activity Based
Hayati, Amelia; Pradono; Purboyo, Heru; Maryati, Sri
2018-05-01
Start The urban developments of technology and economics are now changing the lifestyles of the urban societies. It is also changing their travel demand to meet their movement needs. Nowadays, urban women, especially in Bandung, West Java, have a high demand for their daily travel and tend to increase. They have the ease of accessibility to personal modes of transportation and freedom to go anywhere to meet their personal and family needs. This also happens to non-working women or as housewives in the city of Bandung. More than 50% of women’s mobility is outside the home, in the term of trip-chaining, from leaving to returning home in one day. It is based on their complex activities in order to meet the needs of family and home care. While less than 60% of male’s mobility is outdoors, it is a simple trip-chaining or only has a single trip. The trip-chaining has significant differences between non-working women and working-men. This illustrates the pattern of Mom and Dad’s mobility in a family with an activity-based approach for the same purpose, i.e. family welfare. This study explains how complex the trip-chaining of non-working urban women and as housewives, with an activity-based approach done outdoors in a week. Socio-economic and household demographic variables serve as the basis for measuring the independent variables affecting family welfare, as well as the variables of type, time and duration of activities performed by unemployed housewives. This study aims to examine the interrelationships between activity variables, especially the time of activity and travel, and socio-economic of household variables that can generate the complexity of women’s daily travel. Discrete Choice Modeling developed by Ben-Akiva, Chandra Bhat, etc., is used in this study to illustrate the relationship between activity and socio-economic demographic variables based on primary survey data in Bandung, West Java for 466 unemployed housewives. The results of the regression, by
Wei Zhang
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Within interorganizational cooperative innovation of construction supply chain system, the achievement of project value-adding could be reflected by several factors, such as project-based organizational effect level, and the relationship between project cooperative innovation objectives. In this paper, based on the assumption of equal cooperation between project-based organizations, we selected the knowledge cooperation between the owner and contractor in construction supply chain system as research object. From the perspective of maximizing project value-adding and the relationship of effort cost between knowledge input and innovation stage in consideration, we established the knowledge collaborative incentive model for interorganizational cooperative innovation of construction supply chain system and proposed the first-order and second-order approaches. Then we conducted the digital simulation and example analysis, its results showed that if the owner has the capability to achieve project value-adding in knowledge cooperation, he would adopt a part commissioned way. Otherwise, a fully commissioned way would be better.
A split-path schema-based RFID data storage model in supply chain management.
Fan, Hua; Wu, Quanyuan; Lin, Yisong; Zhang, Jianfeng
2013-05-03
In modern supply chain management systems, Radio Frequency IDentification (RFID) technology has become an indispensable sensor technology and massive RFID data sets are expected to become commonplace. More and more space and time are needed to store and process such huge amounts of RFID data, and there is an increasing realization that the existing approaches cannot satisfy the requirements of RFID data management. In this paper, we present a split-path schema-based RFID data storage model. With a data separation mechanism, the massive RFID data produced in supply chain management systems can be stored and processed more efficiently. Then a tree structure-based path splitting approach is proposed to intelligently and automatically split the movement paths of products . Furthermore, based on the proposed new storage model, we design the relational schema to store the path information and time information of tags, and some typical query templates and SQL statements are defined. Finally, we conduct various experiments to measure the effect and performance of our model and demonstrate that it performs significantly better than the baseline approach in both the data expression and path-oriented RFID data query performance.
A Split-Path Schema-Based RFID Data Storage Model in Supply Chain Management
Jianfeng Zhang
2013-05-01
Full Text Available In modern supply chain management systems, Radio Frequency IDentification (RFID technology has become an indispensable sensor technology and massive RFID data sets are expected to become commonplace. More and more space and time are needed to store and process such huge amounts of RFID data, and there is an increasing realization that the existing approaches cannot satisfy the requirements of RFID data management. In this paper, we present a split-path schema-based RFID data storage model. With a data separation mechanism, the massive RFID data produced in supply chain management systems can be stored and processed more efficiently. Then a tree structure-based path splitting approach is proposed to intelligently and automatically split the movement paths of products . Furthermore, based on the proposed new storage model, we design the relational schema to store the path information and time information of tags, and some typical query templates and SQL statements are defined. Finally, we conduct various experiments to measure the effect and performance of our model and demonstrate that it performs significantly better than the baseline approach in both the data expression and path-oriented RFID data query performance.
Inbar Yuval
2010-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Accurate evaluation and modelling of residue-residue interactions within and between proteins is a key aspect of computational structure prediction including homology modelling, protein-protein docking, refinement of low-resolution structures, and computational protein design. Results Here we introduce a method for accurate protein structure modelling and evaluation based on a novel 4-distance description of residue-residue interaction geometry. Statistical 4-distance preferences were extracted from high-resolution protein structures and were used as a basis for a knowledge-based potential, called Hunter. We demonstrate that 4-distance description of side chain interactions can be used reliably to discriminate the native structure from a set of decoys. Hunter ranked the native structure as the top one in 217 out of 220 high-resolution decoy sets, in 25 out of 28 "Decoys 'R' Us" decoy sets and in 24 out of 27 high-resolution CASP7/8 decoy sets. The same concept was applied to side chain modelling in protein structures. On a set of very high-resolution protein structures the average RMSD was 1.47 Å for all residues and 0.73 Å for buried residues, which is in the range of attainable accuracy for a model. Finally, we show that Hunter performs as good or better than other top methods in homology modelling based on results from the CASP7 experiment. The supporting web site http://bioinfo.weizmann.ac.il/hunter/ was developed to enable the use of Hunter and for visualization and interactive exploration of 4-distance distributions. Conclusions Our results suggest that Hunter can be used as a tool for evaluation and for accurate modelling of residue-residue interactions in protein structures. The same methodology is applicable to other areas involving high-resolution modelling of biomolecules.
Utilization of two web-based continuing education courses evaluated by Markov chain model.
Tian, Hao; Lin, Jin-Mann S; Reeves, William C
2012-01-01
To evaluate the web structure of two web-based continuing education courses, identify problems and assess the effects of web site modifications. Markov chain models were built from 2008 web usage data to evaluate the courses' web structure and navigation patterns. The web site was then modified to resolve identified design issues and the improvement in user activity over the subsequent 12 months was quantitatively evaluated. Web navigation paths were collected between 2008 and 2010. The probability of navigating from one web page to another was analyzed. The continuing education courses' sequential structure design was clearly reflected in the resulting actual web usage models, and none of the skip transitions provided was heavily used. The web navigation patterns of the two different continuing education courses were similar. Two possible design flaws were identified and fixed in only one of the two courses. Over the following 12 months, the drop-out rate in the modified course significantly decreased from 41% to 35%, but remained unchanged in the unmodified course. The web improvement effects were further verified via a second-order Markov chain model. The results imply that differences in web content have less impact than web structure design on how learners navigate through continuing education courses. Evaluation of user navigation can help identify web design flaws and guide modifications. This study showed that Markov chain models provide a valuable tool to evaluate web-based education courses. Both the results and techniques in this study would be very useful for public health education and research specialists.
Risk of the Maritime Supply Chain System Based on Interpretative Structural Model
Jiang He; Xiong Wei; Cao Yonghui
2017-01-01
Marine transportation is the most important transport mode of in the international trade, but the maritime supply chain is facing with many risks. At present, most of the researches on the risk of the maritime supply chain focus on the risk identification and risk management, and barely carry on the quantitative analysis of the logical structure of each influencing factor. This paper uses the interpretative structure model to analysis the maritime supply chain risk system. On the basis of com...
Szczęsna, Agnieszka; Pruszowski, Przemysław
2016-01-01
Inertial orientation tracking is still an area of active research, especially in the context of out-door, real-time, human motion capture. Existing systems either propose loosely coupled tracking approaches where each segment is considered independently, taking the resulting drawbacks into account, or tightly coupled solutions that are limited to a fixed chain with few segments. Such solutions have no flexibility to change the skeleton structure, are dedicated to a specific set of joints, and have high computational complexity. This paper describes the proposal of a new model-based extended quaternion Kalman filter that allows for estimation of orientation based on outputs from the inertial measurements unit sensors. The filter considers interdependencies resulting from the construction of the kinematic chain so that the orientation estimation is more accurate. The proposed solution is a universal filter that does not predetermine the degree of freedom at the connections between segments of the model. To validation the motion of 3-segments single link pendulum captured by optical motion capture system is used. The next step in the research will be to use this method for inertial motion capture with a human skeleton model.
The risk management of perishable supply chain based on coloured Petri Net modeling
Lu Liu
2018-03-01
Full Text Available The supply chain of perishable products is a combination of information organization, sharing and integration. The information modeling of supply chain is constructed to abstract key quality information including environment information, processing procedures and product quality assessments based on principle of quality safety factors and property of decay rate. The coloured Petri Net is applied for integrated description of independent information classification, aiming at risk identification and risk management framework. Well, according to the quality deterioration tendency, risk grades management and decision-making system are established. Practically, the circulation system of aquatic products is studied in this paper for full processing description. The simulation experiments are manipulated on environmental information, processing information and product quality information by the coloured Petri Net. Eventually, the conclusion turns out precisely as such that the coloured Petri Net conclusive for information classification and information transmission while integrated information management is available of efficient risk identification and decision-making system in supply chain of perishable products. Meanwhile, the validity of evaluating management and shelf-life estimation of perishable products are technically feasible.
Supply chain reliability modelling
Eugen Zaitsev
2012-03-01
Full Text Available Background: Today it is virtually impossible to operate alone on the international level in the logistics business. This promotes the establishment and development of new integrated business entities - logistic operators. However, such cooperation within a supply chain creates also many problems related to the supply chain reliability as well as the optimization of the supplies planning. The aim of this paper was to develop and formulate the mathematical model and algorithms to find the optimum plan of supplies by using economic criterion and the model for the probability evaluating of non-failure operation of supply chain. Methods: The mathematical model and algorithms to find the optimum plan of supplies were developed and formulated by using economic criterion and the model for the probability evaluating of non-failure operation of supply chain. Results and conclusions: The problem of ensuring failure-free performance of goods supply channel analyzed in the paper is characteristic of distributed network systems that make active use of business process outsourcing technologies. The complex planning problem occurring in such systems that requires taking into account the consumer's requirements for failure-free performance in terms of supply volumes and correctness can be reduced to a relatively simple linear programming problem through logical analysis of the structures. The sequence of the operations, which should be taken into account during the process of the supply planning with the supplier's functional reliability, was presented.
Metric-based approach and tool for modeling the I and C system using Markov chains
Butenko, Valentyna; Kharchenko, Vyacheslav; Odarushchenko, Elena; Butenko, Dmitriy
2015-01-01
Markov's chains (MC) are well-know and widely applied in dependability and performability analysis of safety-critical systems, because of the flexible representation of system components dependencies and synchronization. There are few radblocks for greater application of the MC: accounting the additional system components increases the model state-space and complicates analysis; the non-numerically sophisticated user may find it difficult to decide between the variety of numerical methods to determine the most suitable and accurate for their application. Thus obtaining the high accurate and trusted modeling results becomes a nontrivial task. In this paper, we present the metric-based approach for selection of the applicable solution approach, based on the analysis of MCs stiffness, decomposability, sparsity and fragmentedness. Using this selection procedure the modeler can provide the verification of earlier obtained results. The presented approach was implemented in utility MSMC, which supports the MC construction, metric-based analysis, recommendations shaping and model solution. The model can be exported to the wall-known off-the-shelf mathematical packages for verification. The paper presents the case study of the industrial NPP I and C system, manufactured by RPC Radiy. The paper shows an application of metric-based approach and MSMC fool for dependability and safety analysis of RTS, and procedure of results verification. (author)
The fishing industry - toward supply chain modelling
Jensen, Toke Koldborg; Nielsen, Jette; Larsen, Erling P.
Mathematical models for simulating and optimizing supply chain aspects such as distribution planning and optimal use of raw materials are widely used. However, modelling based on a holistic chain view is less studied, and food-related aspects such as quality and shelf life issues enforce additional...... requirements onto the chains. In this paper, we consider the supply chain structure of the Danish fishing industry and illustrate the potential of using mathematical models to identify quality and value-adding activities. This is a first step toward innovative supply chain modelling aimed to identify benefits...... for actors along chains in the fishing industry....
Model-based confirmation of alternative substrates of mitochondrial electron transport chain.
Kleessen, Sabrina; Araújo, Wagner L; Fernie, Alisdair R; Nikoloski, Zoran
2012-03-30
Discrimination of metabolic models based on high throughput metabolomics data, reflecting various internal and external perturbations, is essential for identifying the components that contribute to the emerging behavior of metabolic processes. Here, we investigate 12 different models of the mitochondrial electron transport chain (ETC) in Arabidopsis thaliana during dark-induced senescence in order to elucidate the alternative substrates to this metabolic pathway. Our findings demonstrate that the coupling of the proposed computational approach, based on dynamic flux balance analysis, with time-resolved metabolomics data results in model-based confirmations of the hypotheses that, during dark-induced senescence in Arabidopsis, (i) under conditions where the main substrate for the ETC are not fully available, isovaleryl-CoA dehydrogenase and 2-hydroxyglutarate dehydrogenase are able to donate electrons to the ETC, (ii) phytanoyl-CoA does not act even as an indirect substrate of the electron transfer flavoprotein/electron-transfer flavoprotein:ubiquinone oxidoreductase complex, and (iii) the mitochondrial γ-aminobutyric acid transporter has functional significance in maintaining mitochondrial metabolism. Our study provides a basic framework for future in silico studies of alternative pathways in mitochondrial metabolism under extended darkness whereby the role of its components can be computationally discriminated based on available molecular profile data.
Academic Education Chain Operation Model
Ruskov, Petko; Ruskov, Andrey
2007-01-01
This paper presents an approach for modelling the educational processes as a value added chain. It is an attempt to use a business approach to interpret and compile existing business and educational processes towards reference models and suggest an Academic Education Chain Operation Model. The model can be used to develop an Academic Chain Operation Reference Model.
Mohammad Aghaei; Amin Asadollahi; Elham Vahedi; Mahdi Pirooz
2013-01-01
To maintain and achieve optimal growth, development and to be more competitive, organizations need a comprehensive and coherent plan compatible with their objectives and goals which is called strategic planning. This research aims to analyse strategically “Etka Chain Stores” and to propose optimal strategies by using SWOT model and based on fuzzy logic. The scope of this research is limited to “Etka Chain stores in Tehran”. As instrumentation, a questioner, consisting of 138 questions, was us...
Liang, Wanjie; Cao, Jing; Fan, Yan; Zhu, Kefeng; Dai, Qiwei
2015-01-01
In recent years, traceability systems have been developed as effective tools for improving the transparency of supply chains, thereby guaranteeing the quality and safety of food products. In this study, we proposed a cattle/beef supply chain traceability model and a traceability system based on radio frequency identification (RFID) technology and the EPCglobal network. First of all, the transformations of traceability units were defined and analyzed throughout the cattle/beef chain. Secondly, we described the internal and external traceability information acquisition, transformation, and transmission processes throughout the beef supply chain in detail, and explained a methodology for modeling traceability information using the electronic product code information service (EPCIS) framework. Then, the traceability system was implemented based on Fosstrak and FreePastry software packages, and animal ear tag code and electronic product code (EPC) were employed to identify traceability units. Finally, a cattle/beef supply chain included breeding business, slaughter and processing business, distribution business and sales outlet was used as a case study to evaluate the beef supply chain traceability system. The results demonstrated that the major advantages of the traceability system are the effective sharing of information among business and the gapless traceability of the cattle/beef supply chain. PMID:26431340
Liang, Wanjie; Cao, Jing; Fan, Yan; Zhu, Kefeng; Dai, Qiwei
2015-01-01
In recent years, traceability systems have been developed as effective tools for improving the transparency of supply chains, thereby guaranteeing the quality and safety of food products. In this study, we proposed a cattle/beef supply chain traceability model and a traceability system based on radio frequency identification (RFID) technology and the EPCglobal network. First of all, the transformations of traceability units were defined and analyzed throughout the cattle/beef chain. Secondly, we described the internal and external traceability information acquisition, transformation, and transmission processes throughout the beef supply chain in detail, and explained a methodology for modeling traceability information using the electronic product code information service (EPCIS) framework. Then, the traceability system was implemented based on Fosstrak and FreePastry software packages, and animal ear tag code and electronic product code (EPC) were employed to identify traceability units. Finally, a cattle/beef supply chain included breeding business, slaughter and processing business, distribution business and sales outlet was used as a case study to evaluate the beef supply chain traceability system. The results demonstrated that the major advantages of the traceability system are the effective sharing of information among business and the gapless traceability of the cattle/beef supply chain.
Markov Chain Model-Based Optimal Cluster Heads Selection for Wireless Sensor Networks
Gulnaz Ahmed
2017-02-01
Full Text Available The longer network lifetime of Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs is a goal which is directly related to energy consumption. This energy consumption issue becomes more challenging when the energy load is not properly distributed in the sensing area. The hierarchal clustering architecture is the best choice for these kind of issues. In this paper, we introduce a novel clustering protocol called Markov chain model-based optimal cluster heads (MOCHs selection for WSNs. In our proposed model, we introduce a simple strategy for the optimal number of cluster heads selection to overcome the problem of uneven energy distribution in the network. The attractiveness of our model is that the BS controls the number of cluster heads while the cluster heads control the cluster members in each cluster in such a restricted manner that a uniform and even load is ensured in each cluster. We perform an extensive range of simulation using five quality measures, namely: the lifetime of the network, stable and unstable region in the lifetime of the network, throughput of the network, the number of cluster heads in the network, and the transmission time of the network to analyze the proposed model. We compare MOCHs against Sleep-awake Energy Efficient Distributed (SEED clustering, Artificial Bee Colony (ABC, Zone Based Routing (ZBR, and Centralized Energy Efficient Clustering (CEEC using the above-discussed quality metrics and found that the lifetime of the proposed model is almost 1095, 2630, 3599, and 2045 rounds (time steps greater than SEED, ABC, ZBR, and CEEC, respectively. The obtained results demonstrate that the MOCHs is better than SEED, ABC, ZBR, and CEEC in terms of energy efficiency and the network throughput.
Modeling and Computing of Stock Index Forecasting Based on Neural Network and Markov Chain
Dai, Yonghui; Han, Dongmei; Dai, Weihui
2014-01-01
The stock index reflects the fluctuation of the stock market. For a long time, there have been a lot of researches on the forecast of stock index. However, the traditional method is limited to achieving an ideal precision in the dynamic market due to the influences of many factors such as the economic situation, policy changes, and emergency events. Therefore, the approach based on adaptive modeling and conditional probability transfer causes the new attention of researchers. This paper presents a new forecast method by the combination of improved back-propagation (BP) neural network and Markov chain, as well as its modeling and computing technology. This method includes initial forecasting by improved BP neural network, division of Markov state region, computing of the state transition probability matrix, and the prediction adjustment. Results of the empirical study show that this method can achieve high accuracy in the stock index prediction, and it could provide a good reference for the investment in stock market. PMID:24782659
Modeling and Computing of Stock Index Forecasting Based on Neural Network and Markov Chain
Yonghui Dai
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The stock index reflects the fluctuation of the stock market. For a long time, there have been a lot of researches on the forecast of stock index. However, the traditional method is limited to achieving an ideal precision in the dynamic market due to the influences of many factors such as the economic situation, policy changes, and emergency events. Therefore, the approach based on adaptive modeling and conditional probability transfer causes the new attention of researchers. This paper presents a new forecast method by the combination of improved back-propagation (BP neural network and Markov chain, as well as its modeling and computing technology. This method includes initial forecasting by improved BP neural network, division of Markov state region, computing of the state transition probability matrix, and the prediction adjustment. Results of the empirical study show that this method can achieve high accuracy in the stock index prediction, and it could provide a good reference for the investment in stock market.
He, Xinhua
2014-01-01
This paper presents a multiple-rescue model for an emergency supply chain system under uncertainties in large-scale affected area of disasters. The proposed methodology takes into consideration that the rescue demands caused by a large-scale disaster are scattered in several locations; the servers are arranged in multiple echelons (resource depots, distribution centers, and rescue center sites) located in different places but are coordinated within one emergency supply chain system; depending on the types of rescue demands, one or more distinct servers dispatch emergency resources in different vehicle routes, and emergency rescue services queue in multiple rescue-demand locations. This emergency system is modeled as a minimal queuing response time model of location and allocation. A solution to this complex mathematical problem is developed based on genetic algorithm. Finally, a case study of an emergency supply chain system operating in Shanghai is discussed. The results demonstrate the robustness and applicability of the proposed model. PMID:24688367
Xinhua He
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a multiple-rescue model for an emergency supply chain system under uncertainties in large-scale affected area of disasters. The proposed methodology takes into consideration that the rescue demands caused by a large-scale disaster are scattered in several locations; the servers are arranged in multiple echelons (resource depots, distribution centers, and rescue center sites located in different places but are coordinated within one emergency supply chain system; depending on the types of rescue demands, one or more distinct servers dispatch emergency resources in different vehicle routes, and emergency rescue services queue in multiple rescue-demand locations. This emergency system is modeled as a minimal queuing response time model of location and allocation. A solution to this complex mathematical problem is developed based on genetic algorithm. Finally, a case study of an emergency supply chain system operating in Shanghai is discussed. The results demonstrate the robustness and applicability of the proposed model.
He, Xinhua; Hu, Wenfa
2014-01-01
This paper presents a multiple-rescue model for an emergency supply chain system under uncertainties in large-scale affected area of disasters. The proposed methodology takes into consideration that the rescue demands caused by a large-scale disaster are scattered in several locations; the servers are arranged in multiple echelons (resource depots, distribution centers, and rescue center sites) located in different places but are coordinated within one emergency supply chain system; depending on the types of rescue demands, one or more distinct servers dispatch emergency resources in different vehicle routes, and emergency rescue services queue in multiple rescue-demand locations. This emergency system is modeled as a minimal queuing response time model of location and allocation. A solution to this complex mathematical problem is developed based on genetic algorithm. Finally, a case study of an emergency supply chain system operating in Shanghai is discussed. The results demonstrate the robustness and applicability of the proposed model.
Thekdi, Shital A; Santos, Joost R
2016-05-01
Disruptive events such as natural disasters, loss or reduction of resources, work stoppages, and emergent conditions have potential to propagate economic losses across trade networks. In particular, disruptions to the operation of container port activity can be detrimental for international trade and commerce. Risk assessment should anticipate the impact of port operation disruptions with consideration of how priorities change due to uncertain scenarios and guide investments that are effective and feasible for implementation. Priorities for protective measures and continuity of operations planning must consider the economic impact of such disruptions across a variety of scenarios. This article introduces new performance metrics to characterize resiliency in interdependency modeling and also integrates scenario-based methods to measure economic sensitivity to sudden-onset disruptions. The methods will be demonstrated on a U.S. port responsible for handling $36.1 billion of cargo annually. The methods will be useful to port management, private industry supply chain planning, and transportation infrastructure management. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
The fish industry - toward supply chain modelling
Jensen, Toke Koldborg; Nielsen, Jette; Larsen, Erling
2010-01-01
such as quality and shelf-life issues enforce additional requirements onto the chains. In this article, we consider the supply chain structure of the fish industry. We discuss and illustrate the potential of using mathematical models to identify quality and value-adding activities. The article provides a first......Mathematical models for simulating and optimizing aspects of supply chains such as distribution, planning, and optimal handling of raw materials are widely used. However, modeling based on a holistic chain view including several or all supply chain agents is less studied, and food-related aspects...... step toward innovative supply chain modeling aimed to identify benefits for all agents along chains in the fish industry....
Academic Education Chain Operation Model
Ruskov, Petko; Ruskov, Andrey
2007-01-01
This paper presents an approach for modelling the educational processes as a value added chain. It is an attempt to use a business approach to interpret and compile existing business and educational processes towards reference models and suggest an Academic Education Chain Operation Model. The model
An Inventory Controlled Supply Chain Model Based on Improved BP Neural Network
Wei He
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Inventory control is a key factor for reducing supply chain cost and increasing customer satisfaction. However, prediction of inventory level is a challenging task for managers. As one of the widely used techniques for inventory control, standard BP neural network has such problems as low convergence rate and poor prediction accuracy. Aiming at these problems, a new fast convergent BP neural network model for predicting inventory level is developed in this paper. By adding an error offset, this paper deduces the new chain propagation rule and the new weight formula. This paper also applies the improved BP neural network model to predict the inventory level of an automotive parts company. The results show that the improved algorithm not only significantly exceeds the standard algorithm but also outperforms some other improved BP algorithms both on convergence rate and prediction accuracy.
Mehralian, Gholamhossein; Rajabzadeh Gatari, Ali; Morakabati, Mohadese; Vatanpour, Hossein
2012-01-01
The supply chain represents the critical link between the development of new product and the market in pharmaceutical industry. Over the years, improvements made in supply chain operations have focused largely on ways to reduce cost and gain efficiencies in scale. In addition, powerful regulatory and market forces have provided new incentives for pharmaceutical firms to basically rethink the way they produce and distribute products, and also to re-imagine the role of the supply chain in driving strategic growth, brand differentiation and economic value in the health continuum. The purpose of this paper is to formulate basic factors involved in risk analysis of pharmaceutical industry, and also determine the effective factors involved in suppliers selection and their priorities. This paper is based on the results of literature review, experts' opinion acquisition, statistical analysis and also using MADM models on data gathered from distributed questionnaires. The model consists of the following steps and components: first factors involved in to supply chain risks are determined. Based on them a framework is considered. According the result of statistical analysis and MADM models the risk factors are formulated. The paper determines the main components and influenceial factors involving in the supply chain risks. Results showed that delivery risk can make an important contribution to mitigate the risk of pharmaceutical industry.
Mehralian, Gholamhossein; Rajabzadeh Gatari, Ali; Morakabati, Mohadese; Vatanpour, Hossein
2012-01-01
The supply chain represents the critical link between the development of new product and the market in pharmaceutical industry. Over the years, improvements made in supply chain operations have focused largely on ways to reduce cost and gain efficiencies in scale. In addition, powerful regulatory and market forces have provided new incentives for pharmaceutical firms to basically rethink the way they produce and distribute products, and also to re-imagine the role of the supply chain in driving strategic growth, brand differentiation and economic value in the health continuum. The purpose of this paper is to formulate basic factors involved in risk analysis of pharmaceutical industry, and also determine the effective factors involved in suppliers selection and their priorities. This paper is based on the results of literature review, experts’ opinion acquisition, statistical analysis and also using MADM models on data gathered from distributed questionnaires. The model consists of the following steps and components: first factors involved in to supply chain risks are determined. Based on them a framework is considered. According the result of statistical analysis and MADM models the risk factors are formulated. The paper determines the main components and influenceial factors involving in the supply chain risks. Results showed that delivery risk can make an important contribution to mitigate the risk of pharmaceutical industry. PMID:24250442
Performance metric optimization advocates CPFR in supply chains: A system dynamics model based study
Balaji Janamanchi; James R. Burns
2016-01-01
Background: Supply Chain partners often find themselves in rather helpless positions, unable to improve their firm’s performance and profitability because their partners although willing to share production information do not fully collaborate in tackling customer order variations as they don’t seem to appreciate the benefits of such collaboration. Methods: We use a two-player (supplier-manufacturer) System Dynamics model to study the dynamics to assess the impact and usefulness of supply cha...
ChainMail based neural dynamics modeling of soft tissue deformation for surgical simulation.
Zhang, Jinao; Zhong, Yongmin; Smith, Julian; Gu, Chengfan
2017-07-20
Realistic and real-time modeling and simulation of soft tissue deformation is a fundamental research issue in the field of surgical simulation. In this paper, a novel cellular neural network approach is presented for modeling and simulation of soft tissue deformation by combining neural dynamics of cellular neural network with ChainMail mechanism. The proposed method formulates the problem of elastic deformation into cellular neural network activities to avoid the complex computation of elasticity. The local position adjustments of ChainMail are incorporated into the cellular neural network as the local connectivity of cells, through which the dynamic behaviors of soft tissue deformation are transformed into the neural dynamics of cellular neural network. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed neural network approach is capable of modeling the soft tissues' nonlinear deformation and typical mechanical behaviors. The proposed method not only improves ChainMail's linear deformation with the nonlinear characteristics of neural dynamics but also enables the cellular neural network to follow the principle of continuum mechanics to simulate soft tissue deformation.
A collaborative knowledge management framework for supply chains: A UML-based model approach
Jorge Esteban Hernández
2008-12-01
Full Text Available In the most general cases, collaborative activities imply a distributed decision-making process which involves several supply chain nodes. In this paper, by means of a literature review, and by also considering the deficiencies of existing proposals, a collaborative knowledge management UML-based framework supported is proposed. In addition, this proposal synthesizes existing knowledge, and it not only fulfils, but enriches, each component with the modeller’s own knowledge.
Modelling green and lean supply chains
Govindan, Kannan; Carvalho, Helena; Azevedo, Susana G.
2017-01-01
This manuscript proposes a model to support decision making and to help managers identify the best set of green and lean supply chain management practices to improve their eco-efficiency. To attain this objective, a mathematical model based on eco-efficiency concepts is suggested to overcome...... a strategic framework to support the design of eco-efficient supply chains....
Gilmanshin, I. R.; Kirpichnikov, A. P.
2017-09-01
In the result of study of the algorithm of the functioning of the early detection module of excessive losses, it is proven the ability to model it by using absorbing Markov chains. The particular interest is in the study of probability characteristics of early detection module functioning algorithm of losses in order to identify the relationship of indicators of reliability of individual elements, or the probability of occurrence of certain events and the likelihood of transmission of reliable information. The identified relations during the analysis allow to set thresholds reliability characteristics of the system components.
Data Model Approach And Markov Chain Based Analysis Of Multi-Level Queue Scheduling
Diwakar Shukla
2010-01-01
Full Text Available There are many CPU scheduling algorithms inliterature like FIFO, Round Robin, Shortest-Job-First and so on.The Multilevel-Queue-Scheduling is superior to these due to itsbetter management of a variety of processes. In this paper, aMarkov chain model is used for a general setup of Multilevelqueue-scheduling and the scheduler is assumed to performrandom movement on queue over the quantum of time.Performance of scheduling is examined through a rowdependent data model. It is found that with increasing value of αand d, the chance of system going over the waiting state reduces.At some of the interesting combinations of α and d, it diminishesto zero, thereby, provides us some clue regarding better choice ofqueues over others for high priority jobs. It is found that ifqueue priorities are added in the scheduling intelligently thenbetter performance could be obtained. Data model helpschoosing appropriate preferences.
Markov Chain-Based Stochastic Modeling of Chloride Ion Transport in Concrete Bridges
Yan Zhang
2018-03-01
Full Text Available Over the last decade, there has been an increasing interest in models for the evaluation and prediction of the condition of bridges in Canada due to their large number in an advanced state of deterioration. The models are used to develop optimal maintenance and replacement strategies to extend service life and optimally allocate financial and technical resources. The main process of deterioration of concrete bridges in Canada is corrosion of the reinforcing steel due to the widespread use of de-icing salts. In this article, numerical models of the diffusion process and chemical reactions of chloride ions in concrete are used to estimate the time to initiation of corrosion and for the progression of corrosion. The analyses are performed for a range of typical concrete properties, exposure and climatic conditions. The results from these simulations are used to develop parametric surrogate Markov chain models of increasing states of deterioration. The surrogate models are more efficient than physical models for the portfolio analysis of a large number of structures. The procedure provides an alternative to Markov models derived from condition ratings when historical inspection data is limited.
A cooperation model based on CVaR measure for a two-stage supply chain
Xu, Xinsheng; Meng, Zhiqing; Shen, Rui
2015-07-01
In this paper, we introduce a cooperation model (CM) for the two-stage supply chain consisting of a manufacturer and a retailer. In this model, it is supposed that the objective of the manufacturer is to maximise his/her profit while the objective of the retailer is to minimise his/her CVaR while controlling the risk originating from fluctuation in market demand. In reality, the manufacturer and the retailer would like to choose their own decisions as to wholesale price and order quantity to optimise their own objectives, resulting the fact that the expected decision of the manufacturer and that of the retailer may conflict with each other. Then, to achieve cooperation, the manufacturer and the retailer both need to give some concessions. The proposed model aims to coordinate the decisions of the manufacturer and the retailer, and balance the concessions of the two in their cooperation. We introduce an s* - optimal equilibrium solution in this model, which can decide the minimum concession that the manufacturer and the retailer need to give for their cooperation, and prove that the s* - optimal equilibrium solution can be obtained by solving a goal programming problem. Further, the case of different concessions made by the manufacturer and the retailer is also discussed. Numerical results show that the CM is efficient in dealing with the cooperations between the supplier and the retailer.
Karanam Prahlada Rao
2010-11-01
Full Text Available Vendor managed inventory (VMI is a supply chain initiative where the supplier assumes the responsibility for managing inventories using advanced communication means such as online messaging and data retrieval system. A well collaborated vendor manage inventory system can improve supply chain performance by decreasing the inventory level and increasing the fill rate. This paper investigates the implementation of vendor managed inventory systems in a consumer goods industry. We consider (r, Q policy for replenishing its inventory. The objective of work is to minimize the inventory across the supply chain and maximize the service level. The major contribution of this work is to develop a spreadsheet model for VMI system, Evaluation of Total inventory cost by using spreadsheet based method and Analytical method, Quantifying inventory reduction, Estimating service efficiency level, and validating the VMI spread sheet model with randomly generated demand. In the application, VMI as an inventory control system is able to reduce the inventory cost without sacrificing the service level. The results further more show that the inventory reduction obtained from analytical method is closer to the spread sheet based approach, which reveals the VMI success. However the VMI success is impacted by the quality of buyersupplier relationships, the quality of the IT system and the intensity of information sharing, but not by the quality of information shared.
Model Checking Markov Chains: Techniques and Tools
Zapreev, I.S.
2008-01-01
This dissertation deals with four important aspects of model checking Markov chains: the development of efficient model-checking tools, the improvement of model-checking algorithms, the efficiency of the state-space reduction techniques, and the development of simulation-based model-checking
Wang, Dai; Gao, Junyu; Li, Pan; Wang, Bin; Zhang, Cong; Saxena, Samveg
2017-08-01
Modeling PEV travel and charging behavior is the key to estimate the charging demand and further explore the potential of providing grid services. This paper presents a stochastic simulation methodology to generate itineraries and charging load profiles for a population of PEVs based on real-world vehicle driving data. In order to describe the sequence of daily travel activities, we use the trip chain model which contains the detailed information of each trip, namely start time, end time, trip distance, start location and end location. A trip chain generation method is developed based on the Naive Bayes model to generate a large number of trips which are temporally and spatially coupled. We apply the proposed methodology to investigate the multi-location charging loads in three different scenarios. Simulation results show that home charging can meet the energy demand of the majority of PEVs in an average condition. In addition, we calculate the lower bound of charging load peak on the premise of lowest charging cost. The results are instructive for the design and construction of charging facilities to avoid excessive infrastructure.
Handling Disruptions in Supply Chains : An Integrated Framework and an Agent-based Model
Behdani, B.
2013-01-01
The degree of supply chain risk faced by many companies has risen dramatically and the impact of disruptions can cascade easily across companies’ and countries’ borders. To handle this increased vulnerability, systematic approaches and decision making tools are needed to provide support in managing
Benny Lianto
2015-12-01
Full Text Available This study attempts to assess the innovation process based on innovation value chain model in footwear industry in East Java, Indonesia. A strength and weakness mapping analysis was performed and it included three factors related to company characteristics: operation scale based on number of employees, operational priod, and market orientation. The samples were 62 footwear industries, members of East Java Indonesian Footwear Association (Aprisindo. The questionnaire was sent via email. Thirty industries (48.38% sent the questionnaire back. A focus group discussion (FGD was conducted with several representatives from footwear industry before the questionnaire was sent. The study found that companies are relatively good at idea conversion (42,30% but the companies have a little difficulties at diffusion (50,80% and at idea generation (55,80%. From the result respose show (see table.2 that the weakest links (the innovation process bottleneck is cross-pollination activity [in which the people typically don't collaborate on projects across units, businesses, or subsidiaries (88,6%], while the strongest links is selection activity [the companies have a risk- averse attitude toward investing in novel ideas (39,3%]. Based on p-value, the study found that company characteristics influencing a certain phase of innovation value chain significantly were company period (age of company and market orientation. Specifically, both of them influenced idea generation phase.
Modelling Lean and Green Supply Chain
Duarte, Susana Carla Vieira Lino Medina
The success of an organization depends on the effective control of its supply chain. It is important to recognize new opportunities for organization and its supply chain. In the last few years the approach to lean, agile, resilient and green supply chain paradigms has been addressed in the scientific literature. Research in this field shows that the integration of these concepts revealed some contradictions among so many paradigms. This thesis is mainly focused on the lean and green approaches. Thirteen different management frameworks, embodied in awards, standards and tools were studied to understand if they could contribute for the modelling process of a lean and green approach. The study reveals a number of categories that are common in most management frameworks, providing adequate conditions for a lean and green supply chain transformation. A conceptual framework for the evaluation of a lean and green organization`s supply chain was proposed. The framework considers six key criteria, namely, leadership, people, strategic planning, stakeholders, processes and results. It was proposed an assessment method considering a criteria score for each criterion. The purpose is to understand how lean and green supply chain can be compatible, using principles, practices, techniques or tools (i.e. elements) that support both, a lean and a green approach, in all key criteria. A case study in the automotive upstream supply chain was performed to understand more deeply if the elements proposed for the conceptual framework could be implemented in a real-scenario. Based on the conceptual framework and the case study, a roadmap to achieve a lean-green transformation is presented. The proposed roadmap revealed its contribution to the understanding on how and when an organization`s supply chain should apply the lean and green elements. This study is relevant to practice, as it may assist managers in the adoption of a lean and green supply chain approach, giving insights for the
Trainer, Asa; Hedberg, Thomas; Feeney, Allison Barnard; Fischer, Kevin; Rosche, Phil
2016-01-01
Advances in information technology triggered a digital revolution that holds promise of reduced costs, improved productivity, and higher quality. To ride this wave of innovation, manufacturing enterprises are changing how product definitions are communicated - from paper to models. To achieve industry's vision of the Model-Based Enterprise (MBE), the MBE strategy must include model-based data interoperability from design to manufacturing and quality in the supply chain. The Model-Based Definition (MBD) is created by the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) using Computer-Aided Design (CAD) tools. This information is then shared with the supplier so that they can manufacture and inspect the physical parts. Today, suppliers predominantly use Computer-Aided Manufacturing (CAM) and Coordinate Measuring Machine (CMM) models for these tasks. Traditionally, the OEM has provided design data to the supplier in the form of two-dimensional (2D) drawings, but may also include a three-dimensional (3D)-shape-geometry model, often in a standards-based format such as ISO 10303-203:2011 (STEP AP203). The supplier then creates the respective CAM and CMM models and machine programs to produce and inspect the parts. In the MBE vision for model-based data exchange, the CAD model must include product-and-manufacturing information (PMI) in addition to the shape geometry. Today's CAD tools can generate models with embedded PMI. And, with the emergence of STEP AP242, a standards-based model with embedded PMI can now be shared downstream. The on-going research detailed in this paper seeks to investigate three concepts. First, that the ability to utilize a STEP AP242 model with embedded PMI for CAD-to-CAM and CAD-to-CMM data exchange is possible and valuable to the overall goal of a more efficient process. Second, the research identifies gaps in tools, standards, and processes that inhibit industry's ability to cost-effectively achieve model-based-data interoperability in the pursuit of the
Elena Fleacă
2016-11-01
Full Text Available Enterprises competing in an actual business framework are required to win and maintain their competitiveness by flexibility, fast reaction and conformation to the changing customers' needs based on innovation of work related to products, services, and internal processes. The paper addresses these challenges which gain more complex bonds in a case of high pressure for innovation. The methodology commences with a literature review of the current knowledge on innovation through business processes management. Secondly, it has been applied the Event-driven Process Chain tool from the scientific literature to model the variables of marketing research process. The findings highlight benefits of marketing research workflow that enhances the value of market information while reducing costs of obtaining it, in a coherent way.
Sharpanskykh, Alexei; Treur, Jan
Employing rich internal agent models of actors in large-scale socio-technical systems often results in scalability issues. The problem addressed in this paper is how to improve computational properties of a complex internal agent model, while preserving its behavioral properties. The problem is addressed for the case of an existing affective-cognitive decision making model instantiated for an emergency scenario. For this internal decision model an abstracted behavioral agent model is obtained, which ensures a substantial increase of the computational efficiency at the cost of approximately 1% behavioural error. The abstraction technique used can be applied to a wide range of internal agent models with loops, for example, involving mutual affective-cognitive interactions.
Hamed Hassani, S; Macris, Nicolas; Urbanke, Ruediger
2012-01-01
We consider a collection of Curie–Weiss (CW) spin systems, possibly with a random field, each of which is placed along the positions of a one-dimensional chain. The CW systems are coupled together by a Kac-type interaction in the longitudinal direction of the chain and by an infinite-range interaction in the direction transverse to the chain. Our motivations for studying this model come from recent findings in the theory of error-correcting codes based on spatially coupled graphs. We find that, although much simpler than the codes, the model studied here already displays similar behavior. We are interested in the van der Waals curve in a regime where the size of each Curie–Weiss model tends to infinity, and the length of the chain and range of the Kac interaction are large but finite. Below the critical temperature, and with appropriate boundary conditions, there appears a series of equilibrium states representing kink-like interfaces between the two equilibrium states of the individual system. The van der Waals curve oscillates periodically around the Maxwell plateau. These oscillations have a period inversely proportional to the chain length and an amplitude exponentially small in the range of the interaction; in other words, the spinodal points of the chain model lie exponentially close to the phase transition threshold. The amplitude of the oscillations is closely related to a Peierls–Nabarro free energy barrier for the motion of the kink along the chain. Analogies to similar phenomena and their possible algorithmic significance for graphical models of interest in coding theory and theoretical computer science are pointed out
Assessing the operation rules of a reservoir system based on a detailed modelling-chain
Bruwier, M.; Erpicum, S.; Pirotton, M.; Archambeau, P.; Dewals, B.
2014-09-01
According to available climate change scenarios for Belgium, drier summers and wetter winters are expected. In this study, we focus on two muti-purpose reservoirs located in the Vesdre catchment, which is part of the Meuse basin. The current operation rules of the reservoirs are first analysed. Next, the impacts of two climate change scenarios are assessed and enhanced operation rules are proposed to mitigate these impacts. For this purpose, an integrated model of the catchment was used. It includes a hydrological model, one-dimensional and two-dimensional hydraulic models of the river and its main tributaries, a model of the reservoir system and a flood damage model. Five performance indicators of the reservoir system have been defined, reflecting its ability to provide sufficient drinking, to control floods, to produce hydropower and to reduce low-flow condition. As shown by the results, enhanced operation rules may improve the drinking water potential and the low-flow augmentation while the existing operation rules are efficient for flood control and for hydropower production.
Assessing the operation rules of a reservoir system based on a detailed modelling chain
Bruwier, M.; Erpicum, S.; Pirotton, M.; Archambeau, P.; Dewals, B. J.
2015-03-01
According to available climate change scenarios for Belgium, drier summers and wetter winters are expected. In this study, we focus on two multi-purpose reservoirs located in the Vesdre catchment, which is part of the Meuse basin. The current operation rules of the reservoirs are first analysed. Next, the impacts of two climate change scenarios are assessed and enhanced operation rules are proposed to mitigate these impacts. For this purpose, an integrated model of the catchment was used. It includes a hydrological model, one-dimensional and two-dimensional hydraulic models of the river and its main tributaries, a model of the reservoir system and a flood damage model. Five performance indicators of the reservoir system have been defined, reflecting its ability to provide sufficient drinking water, to control floods, to produce hydropower and to reduce low-flow conditions. As shown by the results, enhanced operation rules may improve the drinking water potential and the low-flow augmentation while the existing operation rules are efficient for flood control and for hydropower production.
Supply chain strategies, issues and models
Ramanathan, Ramakrishnan
2014-01-01
In the 21st century, supply chain operations and relationships among supply chain partners have become highly challenging, necessitating new approaches, e.g., the development of new models. Supply Chain Strategies, Issues and Models discusses supply chain issues and models with examples from actual industrial cases. Expert authors with a wide spectrum of knowledge working in various areas of supply chain management from various geographical locations offer refreshing, novel and insightful ideas and address possible solutions using established theories and models. Supply Chain Strategies, Issues and Models features studies that have used mathematical modeling, statistical analyses and also descriptive qualitative studies. The chapters cover many relevant themes related to supply chains and logistics including supply chain complexity, information sharing, quality (six sigma), electronic Kanbans, inventory models, scheduling, purchasing and contracts. To facilitate easy reading, the chapters that deal with suppl...
Towards an Empirical-Relational Model of Supply Chain Flexibility
Santanu Mandal
2015-01-01
Supply chains are prone to disruptions and associated risks. To develop capabilities for risk mitigation, supply chains need to be flexible. A flexible supply chain can respond better to environmental contingencies. Based on the theoretical tenets of resource-based view, relational view and dynamic capabilities theory, the current study develops a relational model of supply chain flexibility comprising trust, commitment, communication, co-operation, adaptation and interdependence. Subsequentl...
Tian, Yihui; Govindan, Kannan; Zhu, Qinghua
2014-01-01
In this study, a system dynamics (SD) model is developed to guide the subsidy policies to promote the diffusion of green supply chain management (GSCM) in China. The relationships of stakeholders such as government, enterprises and consumers are analyzed through evolutionary game theory. Finally...
MARKOV CHAIN PORTFOLIO LIQUIDITY OPTIMIZATION MODEL
Eder Oliveira Abensur
2014-05-01
Full Text Available The international financial crisis of September 2008 and May 2010 showed the importance of liquidity as an attribute to be considered in portfolio decisions. This study proposes an optimization model based on available public data, using Markov chain and Genetic Algorithms concepts as it considers the classic duality of risk versus return and incorporating liquidity costs. The work intends to propose a multi-criterion non-linear optimization model using liquidity based on a Markov chain. The non-linear model was tested using Genetic Algorithms with twenty five Brazilian stocks from 2007 to 2009. The results suggest that this is an innovative development methodology and useful for developing an efficient and realistic financial portfolio, as it considers many attributes such as risk, return and liquidity.
Liu Yang; Yao Xiong; Xiao-jiao Tong
2017-01-01
We construct a new two-stage stochastic model of supply chain with multiple factories and distributors for perishable product. By introducing a second-order stochastic dominance (SSD) constraint, we can describe the preference consistency of the risk taker while minimizing the expected cost of company. To solve this problem, we convert it into a one-stage stochastic model equivalently; then we use sample average approximation (SAA) method to approximate the expected values of the underlying r...
Coordinated supply chain dynamic production planning model
Chandra, Charu; Grabis, Janis
2001-10-01
Coordination of different and often contradicting interests of individual supply chain members is one of the important issues in supply chain management because the individual members can not succeed without success of the supply chain and vice versa. This paper investigates a supply chain dynamic production planning problem with emphasis on coordination. A planning problem is formally described using a supply chain kernel, which defines supply chain configuration, management policies, available resources and objectives both at supply chain or macro and supply chain member or micro levels. The coordinated model is solved in order to balance decisions made at the macro and micro levels and members' profitability is used as the coordination criterion. The coordinated model is used to determine inventory levels and production capacity across the supply chain. Application of the coordinated model distributes costs burden uniformly among supply chain members and preserves overall efficiency of the supply chain. Influence of the demand series uncertainty is investigated. The production planning model is a part of the integrated supply chain decision modeling system, which is shared among the supply chain members across the Internet.
Liu, Zhexuan; Qiu, Tong; Chen, Bingzhen
2014-01-01
Highlights: • A LCA based biofuel supply chain model considering 3E criteria was proposed. • The model was used to design a supply chain considering three conversion pathways. • An experimental biofuel supply chain for China was designed. • A Pareto-optimal solution surface of this multi-objective problem was obtained. • The designed supply chain was rather robust to price variation. - Abstract: In this paper we present a life cycle assessment (LCA) based biofuel supply chain model with multi-conversion pathways. This model was formulated as a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) problem which took economic, energy, and environmental criteria (3E) into consideration. The economic objective was measured by the total annual profit. The energy objective was measured by using the average fossil energy input per megajoule (MJ) of biofuel. The environmental objective was measured by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per MJ of biofuel. After carefully consideration of the current situation in China, we chose to examine three conversion pathways: bio-ethanol (BE), bio-methanol (BM) and bio-diesel (BD). LCA was integrated to a multi-objective supply chain model by dividing each pathway into several individual parts and analyzing each part. The multi-objective MILP problem was solved using a ε-constraint method by defining the total annual profit as the optimization objective and assigning the average fossil energy input per MJ biofuel and GHG emissions per MJ biofuel as constraints. This model was then used to design an experimental biofuel supply chain for China. A surface of the Pareto optimal solutions was obtained by linear interpolation of the non-inferior solutions. The optimal results included the choice of optimal conversion pathway, biomass type, biomass locations, facility locations, and network topology structure in the biofuel supply chain. Distributed and centralized systems were also factored into our experimental system design. In addition, the
Calculation of single chain cellulose elasticity using fully atomistic modeling
Xiawa Wu; Robert J. Moon; Ashlie Martini
2011-01-01
Cellulose nanocrystals, a potential base material for green nanocomposites, are ordered bundles of cellulose chains. The properties of these chains have been studied for many years using atomic-scale modeling. However, model predictions are difficult to interpret because of the significant dependence of predicted properties on model details. The goal of this study is...
UNCERTAINTY SUPPLY CHAIN MODEL AND TRANSPORT IN ITS DEPLOYMENTS
Fabiana Lucena Oliveira
2014-05-01
Full Text Available This article discusses the Model Uncertainty of Supply Chain, and proposes a matrix with their transportation modes best suited to their chains. From the detailed analysis of the matrix of uncertainty, it is suggested transportation modes best suited to the management of these chains, so that transport is the most appropriate optimization of the gains previously proposed by the original model, particularly when supply chains are distant from suppliers of raw materials and / or supplies.Here we analyze in detail Agile Supply Chains, which is a result of Uncertainty Supply Chain Model, with special attention to Manaus Industrial Center. This research was done at Manaus Industrial Pole, which is a model of industrial agglomerations, based in Manaus, State of Amazonas (Brazil, which contemplates different supply chains and strategies sharing same infrastructure of transport, handling and storage and clearance process and uses inbound for suppliers of raw material. The state of art contemplates supply chain management, uncertainty supply chain model, agile supply chains, Manaus Industrial Center (MIC and Brazilian legislation, as a business case, and presents concepts and features, of each one. The main goal is to present and discuss how transport is able to support Uncertainty Supply Chain Model, in order to complete management model. The results obtained confirms the hypothesis of integrated logistics processes are able to guarantee attractivity for industrial agglomerations, and open discussions when the suppliers are far from the manufacturer center, in a logistics management.
Charge distribution in an two-chain dual model
Fialkowski, K.; Kotanski, A.
1983-01-01
Charge distributions in the multiple production processes are analysed using the dual chain model. A parametrisation of charge distributions for single dual chains based on the νp and anti vp data is proposed. The rapidity charge distributions are then calculated for pp and anti pp collisions and compared with the previous calculations based on the recursive cascade model of single chains. The results differ at the SPS collider energies and in the energy dependence of the net forward charge supplying the useful tests of the dual chain model. (orig.)
Modelling antibody side chain conformations using heuristic database search.
Ritchie, D W; Kemp, G J
1997-01-01
We have developed a knowledge-based system which models the side chain conformations of residues in the variable domains of antibody Fv fragments. The system is written in Prolog and uses an object-oriented database of aligned antibody structures in conjunction with a side chain rotamer library. The antibody database provides 3-dimensional clusters of side chain conformations which can be copied en masse into the model structure. The object-oriented database architecture facilitates a navigational style of database access, necessary to assemble side chains clusters. Around 60% of the model is built using side chain clusters and this eliminates much of the combinatorial complexity associated with many other side chain placement algorithms. Construction and placement of side chain clusters is guided by a heuristic cost function based on a simple model of side chain packing interactions. Even with a simple model, we find that a large proportion of side chain conformations are modelled accurately. We expect our approach could be used with other homologous protein families, in addition to antibodies, both to improve the quality of model structures and to give a "smart start" to the side chain placement problem.
Li, Xiaoying; Zhu, Qinghua
2017-01-01
The question on how to evaluate a company's green practice has recently become a key strategic consideration for the food service supply chain management. This paper proposed a novel hybrid model that combines a fuzzy Decision Making Trial And Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL) and Analysis Network Process(ANP) methods, which developed the green restaurant criteria and demonstrated the complicated relations among various criteria to help the food service operation to better analyze the real-world situation and determine the different weight value of the criteria .The analysis of the evaluation of green practices will help the food service operation to be clear about the key measures of green practice to improve supply chain management.
Model of service-oriented catering supply chain performance evaluation
Gou, Juanqiong; Shen, Guguan; Chai, Rui
2013-01-01
Purpose: The aim of this paper is constructing a performance evaluation model for service-oriented catering supply chain. Design/methodology/approach: With the research on the current situation of catering industry, this paper summarized the characters of the catering supply chain, and then presents the service-oriented catering supply chain model based on the platform of logistics and information. At last, the fuzzy AHP method is used to evaluate the performance of service-oriented catering ...
Liu Yang
2017-01-01
Full Text Available We construct a new two-stage stochastic model of supply chain with multiple factories and distributors for perishable product. By introducing a second-order stochastic dominance (SSD constraint, we can describe the preference consistency of the risk taker while minimizing the expected cost of company. To solve this problem, we convert it into a one-stage stochastic model equivalently; then we use sample average approximation (SAA method to approximate the expected values of the underlying random functions. A smoothing approach is proposed with which we can get the global solution and avoid introducing new variables and constraints. Meanwhile, we investigate the convergence of an optimal value from solving the transformed model and show that, with probability approaching one at exponential rate, the optimal value converges to its counterpart as the sample size increases. Numerical results show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm and analysis.
Natalie M. Hughes
2014-01-01
Full Text Available We reviewed 153 peer-reviewed sources to provide identification of modern supply chain management techniques and exploration of supply chain modeling, to offer decision support to managers. Ultimately, the review is intended to assist member-companies of supply chains, mainly producers, improve their current management approaches, by directing them to studies that may be suitable for direct application to their supply chains and value chains for improved efficiency and profitability. We found that information on supply chain management and modeling techniques in general is available. However, few Canadian-based published studies exist regarding a demand-driven modeling approach to value/supply chain management for wood pellet production. Only three papers were found specifically on wood pellet value chain analysis. We propose that more studies should be carried out on the value chain of wood pellet manufacturing, as well as demand-driven management and modeling approaches with improved demand forecasting methods.
Cacuci, D. G. [Commiss Energy Atom, Direct Energy Nucl, Saclay, (France); Cacuci, D. G.; Balan, I. [Univ Karlsruhe, Inst Nucl Technol and Reactor Safetly, Karlsruhe, (Germany); Ionescu-Bujor, M. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Fus Program, D-76021 Karlsruhe, (Germany)
2008-07-01
In Part II of this work, the adjoint sensitivity analysis procedure developed in Part I is applied to perform sensitivity analysis of several dynamic reliability models of systems of increasing complexity, culminating with the consideration of the International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility (IFMIF) accelerator system. Section II presents the main steps of a procedure for the automated generation of Markov chains for reliability analysis, including the abstraction of the physical system, construction of the Markov chain, and the generation and solution of the ensuing set of differential equations; all of these steps have been implemented in a stand-alone computer code system called QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN. This code system has been applied to sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability measures for a paradigm '2-out-of-3' system comprising five components and also to a comprehensive dynamic reliability analysis of the IFMIF accelerator system facilities for the average availability and, respectively, the system's availability at the final mission time. The QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN has been used to efficiently compute sensitivities to 186 failure and repair rates characterizing components and subsystems of the first-level fault tree of the IFMIF accelerator system. (authors)
Cacuci, D. G.; Cacuci, D. G.; Balan, I.; Ionescu-Bujor, M.
2008-01-01
In Part II of this work, the adjoint sensitivity analysis procedure developed in Part I is applied to perform sensitivity analysis of several dynamic reliability models of systems of increasing complexity, culminating with the consideration of the International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility (IFMIF) accelerator system. Section II presents the main steps of a procedure for the automated generation of Markov chains for reliability analysis, including the abstraction of the physical system, construction of the Markov chain, and the generation and solution of the ensuing set of differential equations; all of these steps have been implemented in a stand-alone computer code system called QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN. This code system has been applied to sensitivity analysis of dynamic reliability measures for a paradigm '2-out-of-3' system comprising five components and also to a comprehensive dynamic reliability analysis of the IFMIF accelerator system facilities for the average availability and, respectively, the system's availability at the final mission time. The QUEFT/MARKOMAG-S/MCADJSEN has been used to efficiently compute sensitivities to 186 failure and repair rates characterizing components and subsystems of the first-level fault tree of the IFMIF accelerator system. (authors)
Business Modeling - Supply Chain Management
Abdillah, Leon
2017-01-01
BM-SCM consists of: 1) Introduction, 2) Basic Concepts, 3) Inventory Management, 4) Forecasting Material, 5) Requirements, ) Transportation Management, 7) Vendor Management, 8) Warehouse Management, 9) Cross Docking, 10) Third Party Logistics (3PLs), 11) IT in Supply Chain, and 12) Presentations.
Markov chains models, algorithms and applications
Ching, Wai-Ki; Ng, Michael K; Siu, Tak-Kuen
2013-01-01
This new edition of Markov Chains: Models, Algorithms and Applications has been completely reformatted as a text, complete with end-of-chapter exercises, a new focus on management science, new applications of the models, and new examples with applications in financial risk management and modeling of financial data.This book consists of eight chapters. Chapter 1 gives a brief introduction to the classical theory on both discrete and continuous time Markov chains. The relationship between Markov chains of finite states and matrix theory will also be highlighted. Some classical iterative methods
Entropy-Based Algorithm for Supply-Chain Complexity Assessment
Boris Kriheli
2018-03-01
Full Text Available This paper considers a graph model of hierarchical supply chains. The goal is to measure the complexity of links between different components of the chain, for instance, between the principal equipment manufacturer (a root node and its suppliers (preceding supply nodes. The information entropy is used to serve as a measure of knowledge about the complexity of shortages and pitfalls in relationship between the supply chain components under uncertainty. The concept of conditional (relative entropy is introduced which is a generalization of the conventional (non-relative entropy. An entropy-based algorithm providing efficient assessment of the supply chain complexity as a function of the SC size is developed.
Audiovisual preservation strategies, data models and value-chains
Addis, Matthew; Wright, Richard
2010-01-01
This is a report on preservation strategies, models and value-chains for digital file-based audiovisual content. The report includes: (a)current and emerging value-chains and business-models for audiovisual preservation;(b) a comparison of preservation strategies for audiovisual content including their strengths and weaknesses, and(c) a review of current preservation metadata models, and requirements for extension to support audiovisual files.
Model Checking Structured Infinite Markov Chains
Remke, Anne Katharina Ingrid
2008-01-01
In the past probabilistic model checking hast mostly been restricted to finite state models. This thesis explores the possibilities of model checking with continuous stochastic logic (CSL) on infinite-state Markov chains. We present an in-depth treatment of model checking algorithms for two special
Model of service-oriented catering supply chain performance evaluation
Juanqiong Gou
2013-03-01
Full Text Available Purpose: The aim of this paper is constructing a performance evaluation model for service-oriented catering supply chain. Design/methodology/approach: With the research on the current situation of catering industry, this paper summarized the characters of the catering supply chain, and then presents the service-oriented catering supply chain model based on the platform of logistics and information. At last, the fuzzy AHP method is used to evaluate the performance of service-oriented catering supply chain. Findings: With the analysis of the characteristics of catering supply chain, we construct the performance evaluation model in order to guarantee the food safety, logistics efficiency, price stability and so on. Practical implications: In order to evolve an efficient and effective service supply chain, it can not only used to own enterprise improvement, but also can be used for selecting different customers, to choose a different model of development. Originality/value: This paper has a new definition of service-oriented catering supply chain. And it offers a model to evaluate the performance of this catering supply chain.
Security Modeling on the Supply Chain Networks
Marn-Ling Shing
2007-10-01
Full Text Available In order to keep the price down, a purchaser sends out the request for quotation to a group of suppliers in a supply chain network. The purchaser will then choose a supplier with the best combination of price and quality. A potential supplier will try to collect the related information about other suppliers so he/she can offer the best bid to the purchaser. Therefore, confidentiality becomes an important consideration for the design of a supply chain network. Chen et al. have proposed the application of the Bell-LaPadula model in the design of a secured supply chain network. In the Bell-LaPadula model, a subject can be in one of different security clearances and an object can be in one of various security classifications. All the possible combinations of (Security Clearance, Classification pair in the Bell-LaPadula model can be thought as different states in the Markov Chain model. This paper extends the work done by Chen et al., provides more details on the Markov Chain model and illustrates how to use it to monitor the security state transition in the supply chain network.
Chain binomial models and binomial autoregressive processes.
Weiss, Christian H; Pollett, Philip K
2012-09-01
We establish a connection between a class of chain-binomial models of use in ecology and epidemiology and binomial autoregressive (AR) processes. New results are obtained for the latter, including expressions for the lag-conditional distribution and related quantities. We focus on two types of chain-binomial model, extinction-colonization and colonization-extinction models, and present two approaches to parameter estimation. The asymptotic distributions of the resulting estimators are studied, as well as their finite-sample performance, and we give an application to real data. A connection is made with standard AR models, which also has implications for parameter estimation. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.
A Bayesian model for binary Markov chains
Belkheir Essebbar
2004-02-01
Full Text Available This note is concerned with Bayesian estimation of the transition probabilities of a binary Markov chain observed from heterogeneous individuals. The model is founded on the Jeffreys' prior which allows for transition probabilities to be correlated. The Bayesian estimator is approximated by means of Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC techniques. The performance of the Bayesian estimates is illustrated by analyzing a small simulated data set.
Spin chain model for correlated quantum channels
Rossini, Davide [International School for Advanced Studies SISSA/ISAS, via Beirut 2-4, I-34014 Trieste (Italy); Giovannetti, Vittorio; Montangero, Simone [NEST-CNR-INFM and Scuola Normale Superiore, Piazza dei Cavalieri 7, I-56126 Pisa (Italy)], E-mail: monta@sns.it
2008-11-15
We analyze the quality of the quantum information transmission along a correlated quantum channel by studying the average fidelity between input and output states and the average output purity, giving bounds for the entropy of the channel. Noise correlations in the channel are modeled by the coupling of each channel use with an element of a one-dimensional interacting quantum spin chain. Criticality of the environment chain is seen to emerge in the changes of the fidelity and of the purity.
Simple model of inhibition of chain-branching combustion processes
Babushok, Valeri I.; Gubernov, Vladimir V.; Minaev, Sergei S.; Miroshnichenko, Taisia P.
2017-11-01
A simple kinetic model has been suggested to describe the inhibition and extinction of flame propagation in reaction systems with chain-branching reactions typical for hydrocarbon systems. The model is based on the generalised model of the combustion process with chain-branching reaction combined with the one-stage reaction describing the thermal mode of flame propagation with the addition of inhibition reaction steps. Inhibitor addition suppresses the radical overshoot in flame and leads to the change of reaction mode from the chain-branching reaction to a thermal mode of flame propagation. With the increase of inhibitor the transition of chain-branching mode of reaction to the reaction with straight-chains (non-branching chain reaction) is observed. The inhibition part of the model includes a block of three reactions to describe the influence of the inhibitor. The heat losses are incorporated into the model via Newton cooling. The flame extinction is the result of the decreased heat release of inhibited reaction processes and the suppression of radical overshoot with the further decrease of the reaction rate due to the temperature decrease and mixture dilution. A comparison of the results of modelling laminar premixed methane/air flames inhibited by potassium bicarbonate (gas phase model, detailed kinetic model) with the results obtained using the suggested simple model is presented. The calculations with the detailed kinetic model demonstrate the following modes of combustion process: (1) flame propagation with chain-branching reaction (with radical overshoot, inhibitor addition decreases the radical overshoot down to the equilibrium level); (2) saturation of chemical influence of inhibitor, and (3) transition to thermal mode of flame propagation (non-branching chain mode of reaction). The suggested simple kinetic model qualitatively reproduces the modes of flame propagation with the addition of the inhibitor observed using detailed kinetic models.
Prognostics for Steam Generator Tube Rupture using Markov Chain model
Kim, Gibeom; Heo, Gyunyoung; Kim, Hyeonmin
2016-01-01
This paper will describe the prognostics method for evaluating and forecasting the ageing effect and demonstrate the procedure of prognostics for the Steam Generator Tube Rupture (SGTR) accident. Authors will propose the data-driven method so called MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) which is preferred to the physical-model method in terms of flexibility and availability. Degradation data is represented as growth of burst probability over time. Markov chain model is performed based on transition probability of state. And the state must be discrete variable. Therefore, burst probability that is continuous variable have to be changed into discrete variable to apply Markov chain model to the degradation data. The Markov chain model which is one of prognostics methods was described and the pilot demonstration for a SGTR accident was performed as a case study. The Markov chain model is strong since it is possible to be performed without physical models as long as enough data are available. However, in the case of the discrete Markov chain used in this study, there must be loss of information while the given data is discretized and assigned to the finite number of states. In this process, original information might not be reflected on prediction sufficiently. This should be noted as the limitation of discrete models. Now we will be studying on other prognostics methods such as GPM (General Path Model) which is also data-driven method as well as the particle filer which belongs to physical-model method and conducting comparison analysis
D. B. Kazanskiy
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Findings in experimental oncology in beginning of last century and subsequent achievements of genetics of tissue compatibility resulted in divergence of transplantational immunology and oncoimmunology. However, central achievements of both scientific fields are based on unified phenomenon of interaction between T-cell receptor (TCR and histocompatibility molecules. In this review we describe the history of ideas, achievements and unique experience of the team of the Laboratory of Regulatory Mechanisms in Immunity at Scientific Research Institute of Carcinogenesis, N.N. Blokhin Russian Cancer Research Center for all time of existence. This experience shows that efficiency of immunological defense including immunological surveillance are critically influenced by T-cell receptor repertoire. Transgenesis of individual chains of TCR is one of possible means to manage T-cell repertoire. Functional outcomes of transgenesis may be different due to diverse extent of dependence of α- and β-chains expression on the rules of allelic exclusion. Expression of transgenic β-chains results in the expansion of TCR repertoire diversity. Expression of β-chains is under strong control by allelic exclusion, resulting in formation of repertoire bearing mainly invariant transgenic β-chain pared with different α-chains and overall narrowing of repertoire. Earlier, we cloned genes encoding α- and β-chains of TCR of CD8+ memory cells specific to histocompatibility molecule H-2Kb . After introduction them in zigotes we have obtained transgenic mouse strains, which could be used for modeling of interactions between tumor cells and immune system of recipient. Normally, B10. D2 (R101 mice reject lymphoma EL4 cells in 12–14 days after transplantation, in spite of the fact, that allogeneic difference between B10. D2 (R101 (Kd Id Db mice and lymphoma EL4 (H-2b cells is only in one product of MHC, the H-2Kb molecule. Transgenics carrying β-chains of TCR displayed
Model Checking Infinite-State Markov Chains
Remke, Anne Katharina Ingrid; Haverkort, Boudewijn R.H.M.; Cloth, L.
2004-01-01
In this paper algorithms for model checking CSL (continuous stochastic logic) against infinite-state continuous-time Markov chains of so-called quasi birth-death type are developed. In doing so we extend the applicability of CSL model checking beyond the recently proposed case for finite-state
An extended chain Ising model and its Glauber dynamics
Zhao Xing-Yu; Fan Xiao-Hui; Huang Yi-Neng; Huang Xin-Ru
2012-01-01
It was first proposed that an extended chain Ising (ECI) model contains the Ising chain model, single spin double-well potentials and a pure phonon heat bath of a specific energy exchange with the spins. The extension method is easy to apply to high dimensional cases. Then the single spin-flip probability (rate) of the ECI model is deduced based on the Boltzmann principle and general statistical principles of independent events and the model is simplified to an extended chain Glauber—Ising (ECGI) model. Moreover, the relaxation dynamics of the ECGI model were simulated by the Monte Carlo method and a comparison with the predictions of the special chain Glauber—Ising (SCGI) model was presented. It was found that the results of the two models are consistent with each other when the Ising chain length is large enough and temperature is relative low, which is the most valuable case of the model applications. These show that the ECI model will provide a firm physical base for the widely used single spin-flip rate proposed by Glauber and a possible route to obtain the single spin-flip rate of other form and even the multi-spin-flip rate. (condensed matter: electronic structure, electrical, magnetic, and optical properties)
Hybrid modeling and empirical analysis of automobile supply chain network
Sun, Jun-yan; Tang, Jian-ming; Fu, Wei-ping; Wu, Bing-ying
2017-05-01
Based on the connection mechanism of nodes which automatically select upstream and downstream agents, a simulation model for dynamic evolutionary process of consumer-driven automobile supply chain is established by integrating ABM and discrete modeling in the GIS-based map. Firstly, the rationality is proved by analyzing the consistency of sales and changes in various agent parameters between the simulation model and a real automobile supply chain. Second, through complex network theory, hierarchical structures of the model and relationships of networks at different levels are analyzed to calculate various characteristic parameters such as mean distance, mean clustering coefficients, and degree distributions. By doing so, it verifies that the model is a typical scale-free network and small-world network. Finally, the motion law of this model is analyzed from the perspective of complex self-adaptive systems. The chaotic state of the simulation system is verified, which suggests that this system has typical nonlinear characteristics. This model not only macroscopically illustrates the dynamic evolution of complex networks of automobile supply chain but also microcosmically reflects the business process of each agent. Moreover, the model construction and simulation of the system by means of combining CAS theory and complex networks supplies a novel method for supply chain analysis, as well as theory bases and experience for supply chain analysis of auto companies.
Modeling Uncertainty of Directed Movement via Markov Chains
YIN Zhangcai
2015-10-01
Full Text Available Probabilistic time geography (PTG is suggested as an extension of (classical time geography, in order to present the uncertainty of an agent located at the accessible position by probability. This may provide a quantitative basis for most likely finding an agent at a location. In recent years, PTG based on normal distribution or Brown bridge has been proposed, its variance, however, is irrelevant with the agent's speed or divergent with the increase of the speed; so they are difficult to take into account application pertinence and stability. In this paper, a new method is proposed to model PTG based on Markov chain. Firstly, a bidirectional conditions Markov chain is modeled, the limit of which, when the moving speed is large enough, can be regarded as the Brown bridge, thus has the characteristics of digital stability. Then, the directed movement is mapped to Markov chains. The essential part is to build step length, the state space and transfer matrix of Markov chain according to the space and time position of directional movement, movement speed information, to make sure the Markov chain related to the movement speed. Finally, calculating continuously the probability distribution of the directed movement at any time by the Markov chains, it can be get the possibility of an agent located at the accessible position. Experimental results show that, the variance based on Markov chains not only is related to speed, but also is tending towards stability with increasing the agent's maximum speed.
Performance analysis of Supply Chain Management with Supply Chain Operation reference model
Hasibuan, Abdurrozzaq; Arfah, Mahrani; Parinduri, Luthfi; Hernawati, Tri; Suliawati; Harahap, Bonar; Rahmah Sibuea, Siti; Krianto Sulaiman, Oris; purwadi, Adi
2018-04-01
This research was conducted at PT. Shamrock Manufacturing Corpora, the company is required to think creatively to implement competition strategy by producing goods/services that are more qualified, cheaper. Therefore, it is necessary to measure the performance of Supply Chain Management in order to improve the competitiveness. Therefore, the company is required to optimize its production output to meet the export quality standard. This research begins with the creation of initial dimensions based on Supply Chain Management process, ie Plan, Source, Make, Delivery, and Return with hierarchy based on Supply Chain Reference Operation that is Reliability, Responsiveness, Agility, Cost, and Asset. Key Performance Indicator identification becomes a benchmark in performance measurement whereas Snorm De Boer normalization serves to equalize Key Performance Indicator value. Analiytical Hierarchy Process is done to assist in determining priority criteria. Measurement of Supply Chain Management performance at PT. Shamrock Manufacturing Corpora produces SC. Responsiveness (0.649) has higher weight (priority) than other alternatives. The result of performance analysis using Supply Chain Reference Operation model of Supply Chain Management performance at PT. Shamrock Manufacturing Corpora looks good because its monitoring system between 50-100 is good.
Quantitative models for sustainable supply chain management
Brandenburg, M.; Govindan, Kannan; Sarkis, J.
2014-01-01
and directions of this research area, this paper provides a content analysis of 134 carefully identified papers on quantitative, formal models that address sustainability aspects in the forward SC. It was found that a preponderance of the publications and models appeared in a limited set of six journals......Sustainability, the consideration of environmental factors and social aspects, in supply chain management (SCM) has become a highly relevant topic for researchers and practitioners. The application of operations research methods and related models, i.e. formal modeling, for closed-loop SCM...... and reverse logistics has been effectively reviewed in previously published research. This situation is in contrast to the understanding and review of mathematical models that focus on environmental or social factors in forward supply chains (SC), which has seen less investigation. To evaluate developments...
Logistics Chains in Freight Transport Modelling
Davydenko, I.Y.
2015-01-01
The flow of trade is not equal to transport flows, mainly due to the fact that warehouses and distribution facilities are used as intermediary stops on the way from production locations to the points of consumption or further rework of goods. This thesis proposes a logistics chain model, which
Chain-based communication in cylindrical underwater wireless sensor networks.
Javaid, Nadeem; Jafri, Mohsin Raza; Khan, Zahoor Ali; Alrajeh, Nabil; Imran, Muhammad; Vasilakos, Athanasios
2015-02-04
Appropriate network design is very significant for Underwater Wireless Sensor Networks (UWSNs). Application-oriented UWSNs are planned to achieve certain objectives. Therefore, there is always a demand for efficient data routing schemes, which can fulfill certain requirements of application-oriented UWSNs. These networks can be of any shape, i.e., rectangular, cylindrical or square. In this paper, we propose chain-based routing schemes for application-oriented cylindrical networks and also formulate mathematical models to find a global optimum path for data transmission. In the first scheme, we devise four interconnected chains of sensor nodes to perform data communication. In the second scheme, we propose routing scheme in which two chains of sensor nodes are interconnected, whereas in third scheme single-chain based routing is done in cylindrical networks. After finding local optimum paths in separate chains, we find global optimum paths through their interconnection. Moreover, we develop a computational model for the analysis of end-to-end delay. We compare the performance of the above three proposed schemes with that of Power Efficient Gathering System in Sensor Information Systems (PEGASIS) and Congestion adjusted PEGASIS (C-PEGASIS). Simulation results show that our proposed 4-chain based scheme performs better than the other selected schemes in terms of network lifetime, end-to-end delay, path loss, transmission loss, and packet sending rate.
Chain-Based Communication in Cylindrical Underwater Wireless Sensor Networks
Nadeem Javaid
2015-02-01
Full Text Available Appropriate network design is very significant for Underwater Wireless Sensor Networks (UWSNs. Application-oriented UWSNs are planned to achieve certain objectives. Therefore, there is always a demand for efficient data routing schemes, which can fulfill certain requirements of application-oriented UWSNs. These networks can be of any shape, i.e., rectangular, cylindrical or square. In this paper, we propose chain-based routing schemes for application-oriented cylindrical networks and also formulate mathematical models to find a global optimum path for data transmission. In the first scheme, we devise four interconnected chains of sensor nodes to perform data communication. In the second scheme, we propose routing scheme in which two chains of sensor nodes are interconnected, whereas in third scheme single-chain based routing is done in cylindrical networks. After finding local optimum paths in separate chains, we find global optimum paths through their interconnection. Moreover, we develop a computational model for the analysis of end-to-end delay. We compare the performance of the above three proposed schemes with that of Power Efficient Gathering System in Sensor Information Systems (PEGASIS and Congestion adjusted PEGASIS (C-PEGASIS. Simulation results show that our proposed 4-chain based scheme performs better than the other selected schemes in terms of network lifetime, end-to-end delay, path loss, transmission loss, and packet sending rate.
Consequences of population models on the dynamics of food chains.
Kooi, B.W.; Boer, M.P.; Kooijman, S.A.L.M.
1998-01-01
A class of bioenergetic ecological models is studied for the dynamics of food chains with a nutrient at the base. A constant influx rate of the nutrient and a constant efflux rate for all trophic levels is assumed. Starting point is a simple model where prey is converted into predator with a fixed
Zhou, Wen-Yong; Song, Ze-Qian
The competitiveness of Supply Chain (SC) correlates intimately with its knowledge operation (KO). In order to realize better assessment value, this paper constructed an evaluation framework on knowledge operation of SC and a detailed index system. According to theory of ecology, expounded the evaluation orientation and future research direction from view of comprehensiveness and adaptability. Additionally, a case about Toyota recall-gate was analyzed. Through research, it provides two dimensions of results evaluating orientation which may help enterprise make right decision upon SC.
Switching Markov chains for a holistic modeling of SIS unavailability
Mechri, Walid; Simon, Christophe; BenOthman, Kamel
2015-01-01
This paper proposes a holistic approach to model the Safety Instrumented Systems (SIS). The model is based on Switching Markov Chain and integrates several parameters like Common Cause Failure, Imperfect Proof testing, partial proof testing, etc. The basic concepts of Switching Markov Chain applied to reliability analysis are introduced and a model to compute the unavailability for a case study is presented. The proposed Switching Markov Chain allows us to assess the effect of each parameter on the SIS performance. The proposed method ensures the relevance of the results. - Highlights: • A holistic approach to model the unavailability safety systems using Switching Markov chains. • The model integrates several parameters like probability of failure due to the test, the probability of not detecting a failure in a test. • The basic concepts of the Switching Markov Chains are introduced and applied to compute the unavailability for safety systems. • The proposed Switching Markov Chain allows assessing the effect of each parameter on the chemical reactor performance
Tatiana M. Pinho
2015-12-01
Full Text Available Aim of study: This work aims to provide an overview of Model Predictive Controllers (MPC applications in supply chains, to describe the forest-based supply chain and to analyse the potential use and benefits of MPC in a case study concerning a biomass supply chain.Area of study: The proposed methods are being applied to a company located in Finland.Material and methods: Supply chains are complex systems where actions and partners’ coordination influence the whole system performance. The increase of competitiveness and need of quick responses to the costumers implies the use of efficient management techniques. The control theory, particularly MPC, has been successfully used as a supply chain management tool. MPC is able to deal with dynamic interactions between the partners and to globally optimize the supply chain performance in the presence of disturbances. However, as far as is authors’ knowledge, there are no applications of this methodology in the forest-based supply chains. This work proposes a control architecture to improve the performance of the forest supply chain. The controller is based on prediction models which are able to simulate the system and deal with disturbances.Main results: The preliminary results enable to evaluate the impacts of disturbances in the supply chain. Thus, it is possible to react beforehand, controlling the schedules and tasks’ allocation, or alert the planning level in order to generate a new plan.Research highlights: Overview of MPC applications in supply chains; forest-based supply chain description; case study presentation: wood biomass supply chain for energy production; MPC architecture proposal to decrease the operation times.Keywords: biomass; forest; Model Predictive Control; planning; supply chain.
Modeling for Green Supply Chain Evaluation
Elham Falatoonitoosi
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Green supply chain management (GSCM has become a practical approach to develop environmental performance. Under strict regulations and stakeholder pressures, enterprises need to enhance and improve GSCM practices, which are influenced by both traditional and green factors. This study developed a causal evaluation model to guide selection of qualified suppliers by prioritizing various criteria and mapping causal relationships to find effective criteria to improve green supply chain. The aim of the case study was to model and examine the influential and important main GSCM practices, namely, green logistics, organizational performance, green organizational activities, environmental protection, and green supplier evaluation. In the case study, decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory technique is applied to test the developed model. The result of the case study shows only “green supplier evaluation” and “green organizational activities” criteria of the model are in the cause group and the other criteria are in the effect group.
Modelling of cyclical stratigraphy using Markov chains
Kulatilake, P.H.S.W.
1987-07-01
State-of-the-art on modelling of cyclical stratigraphy using first-order Markov chains is reviewed. Shortcomings of the presently available procedures are identified. A procedure which eliminates all the identified shortcomings is presented. Required statistical tests to perform this modelling are given in detail. An example (the Oficina formation in eastern Venezuela) is given to illustrate the presented procedure. 12 refs., 3 tabs. 1 fig.
Dynamic modeling of presence of occupants using inhomogeneous Markov chains
Andersen, Philip Hvidthøft Delff; Iversen, Anne; Madsen, Henrik
2014-01-01
on time of day, and by use of a filter of the observations it is able to capture per-employee sequence dynamics. Simulations using this method are compared with simulations using homogeneous Markov chains and show far better ability to reproduce key properties of the data. The method is based...... on inhomogeneous Markov chains with where the transition probabilities are estimated using generalized linear models with polynomials, B-splines, and a filter of passed observations as inputs. For treating the dispersion of the data series, a hierarchical model structure is used where one model is for low presence...
Maturity models in supply chain sustainability
Correia, Elisabete; Carvalho, Helena; Azevedo, Susana G.
2017-01-01
A systematic literature review of supply chain maturity models with sustainability concerns is presented. The objective is to give insights into methodological issues related to maturity models, namely the research objectives; the research methods used to develop, validate and test them; the scope...... of maturity levels. The comprehensive review, analysis, and synthesis of the maturity model literature represent an important contribution to the organization of this research area, making possible to clarify some confusion that exists about concepts, approaches and components of maturity models...
MEASURING THE DATA MODEL QUALITY IN THE ESUPPLY CHAINS
Zora Arsovski
2012-03-01
Full Text Available The implementation of Internet technology in business has enabled the development of e-business supply chains with large-scale information integration among all partners.The development of information systems (IS is based on the established business objectives whose achievement, among other things, directly depends on the quality of development and design of IS. In the process of analysis of the key elements of company operations in the supply chain, process model and corresponding data model are designed which should enable selection of appropriate information system architecture. The quality of the implemented information system, which supports e-supply chain, directly depends on the level of data model quality. One of the serious limitations of the data model is its complexity. With a large number of entities, data model is difficult to analyse, monitor and maintain. The problem gets bigger when looking at an integrated data model at the level of participating partners in the supply chain, where the data model usually consists of hundreds or even thousands of entities.The paper will analyse the key elements affecting the quality of data models and show their interactions and factors of significance. In addition, the paper presents various measures for assessing the quality of the data model on which it is possible to easily locate the problems and focus efforts in specific parts of a complex data model where it is not economically feasible to review every detail of the model.
Yang, Yi; Xu, Haitao; Liu, Xiaoyan; Wang, Yijia; Liang, Zhicheng
2014-01-01
In mass customization logistics service, reasonable scheduling of the logistics service supply chain (LSSC), especially time scheduling, is benefit to increase its competitiveness. Therefore, the effect of a customer order decoupling point (CODP) on the time scheduling performance should be considered. To minimize the total order operation cost of the LSSC, minimize the difference between the expected and actual time of completing the service orders, and maximize the satisfaction of functional logistics service providers, this study establishes an LSSC time scheduling model based on the CODP. Matlab 7.8 software is used in the numerical analysis for a specific example. Results show that the order completion time of the LSSC can be delayed or be ahead of schedule but cannot be infinitely advanced or infinitely delayed. Obtaining the optimal comprehensive performance can be effective if the expected order completion time is appropriately delayed. The increase in supply chain comprehensive performance caused by the increase in the relationship coefficient of logistics service integrator (LSI) is limited. The relative concern degree of LSI on cost and service delivery punctuality leads to not only changes in CODP but also to those in the scheduling performance of the LSSC. PMID:24715818
Liu, Weihua; Yang, Yi; Xu, Haitao; Liu, Xiaoyan; Wang, Yijia; Liang, Zhicheng
2014-01-01
In mass customization logistics service, reasonable scheduling of the logistics service supply chain (LSSC), especially time scheduling, is benefit to increase its competitiveness. Therefore, the effect of a customer order decoupling point (CODP) on the time scheduling performance should be considered. To minimize the total order operation cost of the LSSC, minimize the difference between the expected and actual time of completing the service orders, and maximize the satisfaction of functional logistics service providers, this study establishes an LSSC time scheduling model based on the CODP. Matlab 7.8 software is used in the numerical analysis for a specific example. Results show that the order completion time of the LSSC can be delayed or be ahead of schedule but cannot be infinitely advanced or infinitely delayed. Obtaining the optimal comprehensive performance can be effective if the expected order completion time is appropriately delayed. The increase in supply chain comprehensive performance caused by the increase in the relationship coefficient of logistics service integrator (LSI) is limited. The relative concern degree of LSI on cost and service delivery punctuality leads to not only changes in CODP but also to those in the scheduling performance of the LSSC.
Bio-based supply chains : risks and institutional arrangements
Peerlings, J.H.M.; Ge, L.; Galen, van M.A.
2012-01-01
One of the challenges for the bio-based economy is to achieve production efficiency that can compete with fossil-based products. New scale-efficient product supply chains have to be created, or current supply chains have to be amended to incorporate the biomass supply chain. These new supply chains
Liao, Li; Li, Jianfeng; Wu, Yaohua
2013-01-01
Mathematical models of inventory-distribution routing problem for two-echelon agriculture products distribution network are established, which are based on two management modes, franchise chain and regular chain, one-to-many, interval periodic order, demand depending on inventory, deteriorating treatment cost of agriculture products, start-up costs of vehicles and so forth. Then, a heuristic adaptive genetic algorithm is presented for the model of franchise chain. For the regular chain model,...
Multi-chain Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for computationally expensive models
Huang, M.; Ray, J.; Ren, H.; Hou, Z.; Bao, J.
2017-12-01
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to infer model parameters from observational data. The parameters are inferred as probability densities, thus capturing estimation error due to sparsity of the data, and the shortcomings of the model. Multiple communicating chains executing the MCMC method have the potential to explore the parameter space better, and conceivably accelerate the convergence to the final distribution. We present results from tests conducted with the multi-chain method to show how the acceleration occurs i.e., for loose convergence tolerances, the multiple chains do not make much of a difference. The ensemble of chains also seems to have the ability to accelerate the convergence of a few chains that might start from suboptimal starting points. Finally, we show the performance of the chains in the estimation of O(10) parameters using computationally expensive forward models such as the Community Land Model, where the sampling burden is distributed over multiple chains.
Delay model and performance testing for FPGA carry chain TDC
Kang Xiaowen; Liu Yaqiang; Cui Junjian Yang Zhangcan; Jin Yongjie
2011-01-01
Time-of-flight (TOF) information would improve the performance of PET (position emission tomography). TDC design is a key technique. It proposed Carry Chain TDC Delay model. Through changing the significant delay parameter of model, paper compared the difference of TDC performance, and finally realized Time-to-Digital Convertor (TDC) based on Carry Chain Method using FPGA EP2C20Q240C8N with 69 ps LSB, max error below 2 LSB. Such result could meet the TOF demand. It also proposed a Coaxial Cable Measuring method for TDC testing, without High-precision test equipment. (authors)
A simulation model of a coordinated decentralized linear supply chain
Ashayeri, Jalal; Cannella, S.; Lopez Campos, M.; Miranda, P.A.
2015-01-01
This paper presents a simulation-based study of a coordinated, decentralized linear supply chain (SC) system. In the proposed model, any supply tier considers its successors as part of its inventory system and generates replenishment orders on the basis of its partners’ operational information. We
Zhang, Wencheng; Peng, Shuijun; Sun, Chuanwang
2015-01-01
As the service sector dominates the economy in developed countries, its environmental impact has become an important issue. Based on a multi-regional input–output model, this paper estimates consumption-based emissions of service sectors of 41 countries and regions, and discusses the emission abatement policy of service sectors. The results indicate that consumption-based emissions of the service sector in most countries and regions are much greater than direct emissions generated by the service sector. Further decomposition by production sources demonstrates that final demand for services in certain countries causes substantial emissions in the other countries. In most countries, major parts of consumption-based emissions of the service sector come from upstream emissions in non-service sectors due to the intermediate consumption of non-service inputs in the service sector. For the US and China, the consumption-based emissions of their service sectors are traced back to different service consumption bundles and production sectors, which enable us to identify service categories and production sectors that play key roles in the impact of service sectors on CO 2 emissions. Finally, policy implications of the results are discussed for the climate effect of the service-oriented economy, global mitigation of climate change, sustainability, and the decarbonization of the service sector. - Highlights: • A consumption perspective for the assessment of the environmental impact of the service sector. • International supply chain effect is analyzed using a global input–output model. • Consumption-based emissions of the service sector are decomposed in two ways. • Policy implications for emissions mitigation in the service-oriented economy.
Finite Time Blowup in a Realistic Food-Chain Model
Parshad, Rana; Ait Abderrahmane, Hamid; Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar; Kumari, Nitu
2013-01-01
We investigate a realistic three-species food-chain model, with generalist top predator. The model based on a modified version of the Leslie-Gower scheme incorporates mutual interference in all the three populations and generalizes several other known models in the ecological literature. We show that the model exhibits finite time blowup in certain parameter range and for large enough initial data. This result implies that finite time blowup is possible in a large class of such three-species food-chain models. We propose a modification to the model and prove that the modified model has globally existing classical solutions, as well as a global attractor. We reconstruct the attractor using nonlinear time series analysis and show that it pssesses rich dynamics, including chaos in certain parameter regime, whilst avoiding blowup in any parameter regime. We also provide estimates on its fractal dimension as well as provide numerical simulations to visualise the spatiotemporal chaos.
Finite Time Blowup in a Realistic Food-Chain Model
Parshad, Rana
2013-05-19
We investigate a realistic three-species food-chain model, with generalist top predator. The model based on a modified version of the Leslie-Gower scheme incorporates mutual interference in all the three populations and generalizes several other known models in the ecological literature. We show that the model exhibits finite time blowup in certain parameter range and for large enough initial data. This result implies that finite time blowup is possible in a large class of such three-species food-chain models. We propose a modification to the model and prove that the modified model has globally existing classical solutions, as well as a global attractor. We reconstruct the attractor using nonlinear time series analysis and show that it pssesses rich dynamics, including chaos in certain parameter regime, whilst avoiding blowup in any parameter regime. We also provide estimates on its fractal dimension as well as provide numerical simulations to visualise the spatiotemporal chaos.
Multivariate Markov chain modeling for stock markets
Maskawa, Jun-ichi
2003-06-01
We study a multivariate Markov chain model as a stochastic model of the price changes of portfolios in the framework of the mean field approximation. The time series of price changes are coded into the sequences of up and down spins according to their signs. We start with the discussion for small portfolios consisting of two stock issues. The generalization of our model to arbitrary size of portfolio is constructed by a recurrence relation. The resultant form of the joint probability of the stationary state coincides with Gibbs measure assigned to each configuration of spin glass model. Through the analysis of actual portfolios, it has been shown that the synchronization of the direction of the price changes is well described by the model.
Neergaard, Jesper; Schieber, Jay D.
1999-01-01
A self-consistent reptation model that includes chain stretching, chain-length fluctuations, segment connectivity and constraint release is used to predict transient and steady flows. Quantitative comparisons are made with entangledsolution data. The model is able to capture quantitatively all...
Modified allocation capacitated planning model in blood supply chain management
Mansur, A.; Vanany, I.; Arvitrida, N. I.
2018-04-01
Blood supply chain management (BSCM) is a complex process management that involves many cooperating stakeholders. BSCM involves four echelon processes, which are blood collection or procurement, production, inventory, and distribution. This research develops an optimization model of blood distribution planning. The efficiency of decentralization and centralization policies in a blood distribution chain are compared, by optimizing the amount of blood delivered from a blood center to a blood bank. This model is developed based on allocation problem of capacitated planning model. At the first stage, the capacity and the cost of transportation are considered to create an initial capacitated planning model. Then, the inventory holding and shortage costs are added to the model. These additional parameters of inventory costs lead the model to be more realistic and accurate.
A Markov Chain Model for Contagion
Angelos Dassios
2014-11-01
Full Text Available We introduce a bivariate Markov chain counting process with contagion for modelling the clustering arrival of loss claims with delayed settlement for an insurance company. It is a general continuous-time model framework that also has the potential to be applicable to modelling the clustering arrival of events, such as jumps, bankruptcies, crises and catastrophes in finance, insurance and economics with both internal contagion risk and external common risk. Key distributional properties, such as the moments and probability generating functions, for this process are derived. Some special cases with explicit results and numerical examples and the motivation for further actuarial applications are also discussed. The model can be considered a generalisation of the dynamic contagion process introduced by Dassios and Zhao (2011.
Quantitative Model for Supply Chain Visibility: Process Capability Perspective
Youngsu Lee
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Currently, the intensity of enterprise competition has increased as a result of a greater diversity of customer needs as well as the persistence of a long-term recession. The results of competition are becoming severe enough to determine the survival of company. To survive global competition, each firm must focus on achieving innovation excellence and operational excellence as core competency for sustainable competitive advantage. Supply chain management is now regarded as one of the most effective innovation initiatives to achieve operational excellence, and its importance has become ever more apparent. However, few companies effectively manage their supply chains, and the greatest difficulty is in achieving supply chain visibility. Many companies still suffer from a lack of visibility, and in spite of extensive research and the availability of modern technologies, the concepts and quantification methods to increase supply chain visibility are still ambiguous. Based on the extant researches in supply chain visibility, this study proposes an extended visibility concept focusing on a process capability perspective and suggests a more quantitative model using Z score in Six Sigma methodology to evaluate and improve the level of supply chain visibility.
Modelling a flows in supply chain with analytical models: Case of a chemical industry
Benhida, Khalid; Azougagh, Yassine; Elfezazi, Said
2016-02-01
This study is interested on the modelling of the logistics flows in a supply chain composed on a production sites and a logistics platform. The contribution of this research is to develop an analytical model (integrated linear programming model), based on a case study of a real company operating in the phosphate field, considering a various constraints in this supply chain to resolve the planning problems for a better decision-making. The objectives of this model is to determine and define the optimal quantities of different products to route, to and from the various entities in the supply chain studied.
Kostyalik, Diána; Vas, Szilvia; Kátai, Zita; Kitka, Tamás; Gyertyán, István; Bagdy, Gyorgy; Tóthfalusi, László
2014-11-19
Shortened rapid eye movement (REM) sleep latency and increased REM sleep amount are presumed biological markers of depression. These sleep alterations are also observable in several animal models of depression as well as during the rebound sleep after selective REM sleep deprivation (RD). Furthermore, REM sleep fragmentation is typically associated with stress procedures and anxiety. The selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) antidepressants reduce REM sleep time and increase REM latency after acute dosing in normal condition and even during REM rebound following RD. However, their therapeutic outcome evolves only after weeks of treatment, and the effects of chronic treatment in REM-deprived animals have not been studied yet. Chronic escitalopram- (10 mg/kg/day, osmotic minipump for 24 days) or vehicle-treated rats were subjected to a 3-day-long RD on day 21 using the flower pot procedure or kept in home cage. On day 24, fronto-parietal electroencephalogram, electromyogram and motility were recorded in the first 2 h of the passive phase. The observed sleep patterns were characterized applying standard sleep metrics, by modelling the transitions between sleep phases using Markov chains and by spectral analysis. Based on Markov chain analysis, chronic escitalopram treatment attenuated the REM sleep fragmentation [accelerated transition rates between REM and non-REM (NREM) stages, decreased REM sleep residence time between two transitions] during the rebound sleep. Additionally, the antidepressant avoided the frequent awakenings during the first 30 min of recovery period. The spectral analysis showed that the SSRI prevented the RD-caused elevation in theta (5-9 Hz) power during slow-wave sleep. Conversely, based on the aggregate sleep metrics, escitalopram had only moderate effects and it did not significantly attenuate the REM rebound after RD. In conclusion, chronic SSRI treatment is capable of reducing several effects on sleep which might be the consequence
Ising model on tangled chain - 2: Magnetization and susceptibility
Mejdani, R.
1993-05-01
In the preceding paper we have considered an Ising model defined on tangled chain to study the behaviour of the free energy and entropy, particularly in the zero-field and zero-temperature limit. In this paper, following the main line and basing on some results of the previous work, we shall study in the ''language'' of state configurations the behaviour of the magnetization and the susceptibility for different conditions of the model, to understand better the competition between the ferromagnetic bonds along the chain and the antiferromagnetic additional bonds across the chain. Particularly interesting is the behaviour of the susceptibility in the zero-field and zero-temperature limit. Exact solutions for the magnetization and susceptibility, generated by analytical calculations and iterative algorithms, are described. The additional bonds, introduced as a form of perfectly disorder, indicate a particular effect on the spin correlation. We found that the condition J=-J' between the ferromagnetic interaction J along the chain and the antiferromagnetic interaction J' across the chain is somewhat as a ''transition-region'' condition for this behaviour. (author). 16 refs, 14 figs
Developing Model for Supply Chain Management - the Case of Croatia
E. Jurun
2004-01-01
Full Text Available This paper describes a model of supply chain management (SCM. It explains overall supply chain issues, strategic importance of SCM, supply chain strategies and an example of mathematical formulation. A supply chain is a global network of organizations that cooperate to improve the flows of material and information between suppliers and customers at the lowest cost and the highest speed. The objective of a supply chain is customer satisfaction. At the strategic level, a supply chain can be considered as being composed of five activities: buy, make, move, store and sell. Each activity is a module. The set of modules, along with its links, constitutes a model of the supply chain. Our paper presents some insights into the supply chain strategies of companies in Croatia. The major goal of this paper is to show a model for supply chain management in mathematical terms, with an example of mathematical formulation.
Land transportation model for supply chain manufacturing industries
Kurniawan, Fajar
2017-12-01
Supply chain is a system that integrates production, inventory, distribution and information processes for increasing productivity and minimize costs. Transportation is an important part of the supply chain system, especially for supporting the material distribution process, work in process products and final products. In fact, Jakarta as the distribution center of manufacturing industries for the industrial area. Transportation system has a large influences on the implementation of supply chain process efficiency. The main problem faced in Jakarta is traffic jam that will affect on the time of distribution. Based on the system dynamic model, there are several scenarios that can provide solutions to minimize timing of distribution that will effect on the cost such as the construction of ports approaching industrial areas other than Tanjung Priok, widening road facilities, development of railways system, and the development of distribution center.
Performance Modeling of Communication Networks with Markov Chains
Mo, Jeonghoon
2010-01-01
This book is an introduction to Markov chain modeling with applications to communication networks. It begins with a general introduction to performance modeling in Chapter 1 where we introduce different performance models. We then introduce basic ideas of Markov chain modeling: Markov property, discrete time Markov chain (DTMe and continuous time Markov chain (CTMe. We also discuss how to find the steady state distributions from these Markov chains and how they can be used to compute the system performance metric. The solution methodologies include a balance equation technique, limiting probab
The Advancement Value Chain: An Exploratory Model
Leonard, Edward F., III
2005-01-01
Since the introduction of the value chain concept in 1985, several varying, yet virtually similar, value chains have been developed for the business enterprise. Shifting to higher education, can a value chain be found that links together the various activities of advancement so that an institution's leaders can actually look at the philanthropic…
The composite supply chain efficiency model: A case study of the Sishen-Saldanha supply chain
Leila L. Goedhals-Gerber
2016-01-01
Full Text Available As South Africa strives to be a major force in global markets, it is essential that South African supply chains achieve and maintain a competitive advantage. One approach to achieving this is to ensure that South African supply chains maximise their levels of efficiency. Consequently, the efficiency levels of South Africa’s supply chains must be evaluated. The objective of this article is to propose a model that can assist South African industries in becoming internationally competitive by providing them with a tool for evaluating their levels of efficiency both as individual firms and as a component in an overall supply chain. The Composite Supply Chain Efficiency Model (CSCEM was developed to measure supply chain efficiency across supply chains using variables identified as problem areas experienced by South African supply chains. The CSCEM is tested in this article using the Sishen-Saldanda iron ore supply chain as a case study. The results indicate that all three links or nodes along the Sishen-Saldanha iron ore supply chain performed well. The average efficiency of the rail leg was 97.34%, while the average efficiency of the mine and the port were 97% and 95.44%, respectively. The results also show that the CSCEM can be used by South African firms to measure their levels of supply chain efficiency. This article concludes with the benefits of the CSCEM.
Biomass supply chain optimisation for Organosolv-based biorefineries.
Giarola, Sara; Patel, Mayank; Shah, Nilay
2014-05-01
This work aims at providing a Mixed Integer Linear Programming modelling framework to help define planning strategies for the development of sustainable biorefineries. The up-scaling of an Organosolv biorefinery was addressed via optimisation of the whole system economics. Three real world case studies were addressed to show the high-level flexibility and wide applicability of the tool to model different biomass typologies (i.e. forest fellings, cereal residues and energy crops) and supply strategies. Model outcomes have revealed how supply chain optimisation techniques could help shed light on the development of sustainable biorefineries. Feedstock quality, quantity, temporal and geographical availability are crucial to determine biorefinery location and the cost-efficient way to supply the feedstock to the plant. Storage costs are relevant for biorefineries based on cereal stubble, while wood supply chains present dominant pretreatment operations costs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Xiangshuo He
2018-02-01
Full Text Available With the development of global environment and social economy, it is an indispensable choice for enterprises to achieve sustainable growth through developing low-carbon economy and constructing low-carbon supply chain. Supplier is the source of chain, thus selecting excellent low-carbon supplier is the foundation of establishing efficient low-carbon supply chain. This paper presents a novel hybrid model for supplier selection integrated factor analysis (FA, data envelopment analysis (DEA, with analytic hierarchy process (AHP, namely FA-DEA-AHP. First, an evaluation index system is built, incorporating product level, qualification, cooperation ability, and environmental competitiveness. FA is utilized to extract common factors from the 18 pre-selected indicators. Then, DEA is applied to establish the pairwise comparison matrix and AHP is employed to rank these low-carbon suppliers comprehensively and calculate the validity of the decision-making units. Finally, an experiment study with seven cement suppliers in a large industrial enterprise is carried out in this paper. The results reveal that the proposed technique can not only select effective suppliers, but also realize a comprehensive ranking. This research has enriched the methodology of low-carbon supplier evaluation and selection, as well as owns theoretical value in exploring the coordinated development of low-carbon supply chain to some extent.
Research on Knowledge-Oriented Supply ChainRisk Management System Model
Yingchun Guo
2011-01-01
Based on analyzing the characteristics of supply chain risk management under the influences of knowledge, in this paper integrates basic theories and methods of knowledge management into the process of risk management, builds a knowledge-oriented supply chain risk management system model, and proposes relevant strategies, presenting references for practical application of knowledge-oriented supply chain risk management. By means of acquiring, storing, sharing, and transferring supply chain ri...
Baoying Wang
2013-01-01
In this study, the characteristics of supply chain system are analyzed based on the Self-organization theory from the angle of view of supply chain system. The mathematical models when the system fulfilling social responsibility including self-organization evolution model and self-organization function model are developed to discuss the formation and function of self-organization in supply chain system and coordination. Some basic conditions and tactics about self-organization establishment a...
Supply chain modeling of forest fuel
Gunnarsson, Helene; Lundgren, Jan T.; Roennqvist, Mikael
2001-04-01
We study the problem of deciding when and where forest residues are to be converted into forest fuel, and how the residues are to be transported and stored in order to satisfy demand at heating plants. Decisions also include whether or not additional harvest areas and saw-mills are to be contracted. In addition, we consider the flow of products from saw-mills and import harbors, and address the question about which terminals to use. The planning horizon is one year and monthly time periods are considered. The supply chain problem is formulated as a large mixed integer linear programming model. In order to obtain solutions within reasonable time we have developed a heuristic solution approach. Computational results from a large Swedish supplying entrepreneur are reported.
Supply chain modeling of forest fuel
Gunnarsson, Helene; Lundgren, Jan T.; Roennqvist, Mikael
2001-04-01
We study the problem of deciding when and where forest residues are to be converted into forest fuel, and how the residues are to be transported and stored in order to satisfy demand at heating plants. Decisions also include whether or not additional harvest areas and saw-mills are to be contracted. In addition, we consider the flow of products from saw-mills and import harbors, and address the question about which terminals to use. The planning horizon is one year and monthly time periods are considered. The supply chain problem is formulated as a large mixed integer linear programming model. In order to obtain solutions within reasonable time we have developed a heuristic solution approach. Computational results from a large Swedish supplying entrepreneur are reported
Dose estimation with the help of food chain compartment models
Murzin, N.V.
1987-01-01
Food chain chamber models for calculation of human irradiation doses are considered. Chamber models are divided into steady-state (SSCM) and dynamic (DCM) ones according to the type of interaction between chambers. SSCM are built on the ground of the postulate about steady-static equilibrium presence within organism-environment system. DCM are based on two main assumptions: 1) food chain may be divided into several interacting chambers, between which radionuclides exchange occurs. Radionuclide specific activity in all parts of the chamber is identical at any instant of time; 2) radionuclide losses by the chamber are proportional to radionuclide specific activity in the chamber. The construction principles for economic chamber model are considered
Murphy, Fionnuala; Sosa, Amanda; McDonnell, Kevin; Devlin, Ger
2016-01-01
The energy sector is the major contributor to GHG (greenhouse gas emissions) in Ireland. Under EU Renewable energy targets, Ireland must achieve contributions of 40%, 12% and 10% from renewables to electricity, heat and transport respectively by 2020, in addition to a 20% reduction in GHG emissions. Life cycle assessment methodology was used to carry out a comprehensive, holistic evaluation of biomass-to-energy systems in 2020 based on indigenous biomass supply chains optimised to reduce production and transportation GHG emissions. Impact categories assessed include; global warming, acidification, eutrophication potentials, and energy demand. Two biomass energy conversion technologies are considered; co-firing with peat, and biomass CHP (combined heat and power) systems. Biomass is allocated to each plant according to a supply optimisation model which ensures minimal GHG emissions. The study shows that while CHP systems produce lower environmental impacts than co-firing systems in isolation, determining overall environmental impacts requires analysis of the reference energy systems which are displaced. In addition, if the aims of these systems are to increase renewable energy penetration in line with the renewable electricity and renewable heat targets, the optimal scenario may not be the one which achieves the greatest environmental impact reductions. - Highlights: • Life cycle assessment of biomass co-firing and CHP systems in Ireland is carried out. • GWP, acidification and eutrophication potentials, and energy demand are assessed. • Biomass supply is optimised based on minimising GHG emissions. • CHP systems cause lower environmental impacts than biomass co-firing with peat. • Displacing peat achieves higher GHG emission reductions than replacing fossil heat.
System Dynamics Modeling for Supply Chain Information Sharing
Feng, Yang
In this paper, we try to use the method of system dynamics to model supply chain information sharing. Firstly, we determine the model boundaries, establish system dynamics model of supply chain before information sharing, analyze the model's simulation results under different changed parameters and suggest improvement proposal. Then, we establish system dynamics model of supply chain information sharing and make comparison and analysis on the two model's simulation results, to show the importance of information sharing in supply chain management. We wish that all these simulations would provide scientific supports for enterprise decision-making.
Classification of customer lifetime value models using Markov chain
Permana, Dony; Pasaribu, Udjianna S.; Indratno, Sapto W.; Suprayogi
2017-10-01
A firm’s potential reward in future time from a customer can be determined by customer lifetime value (CLV). There are some mathematic methods to calculate it. One method is using Markov chain stochastic model. Here, a customer is assumed through some states. Transition inter the states follow Markovian properties. If we are given some states for a customer and the relationships inter states, then we can make some Markov models to describe the properties of the customer. As Markov models, CLV is defined as a vector contains CLV for a customer in the first state. In this paper we make a classification of Markov Models to calculate CLV. Start from two states of customer model, we make develop in many states models. The development a model is based on weaknesses in previous model. Some last models can be expected to describe how real characters of customers in a firm.
Network evolution model for supply chain with manufactures as the core
Jiang, Dali; Fang, Ling; Yang, Jian; Li, Wu; Zhao, Jing
2018-01-01
Building evolution model of supply chain networks could be helpful to understand its development law. However, specific characteristics and attributes of real supply chains are often neglected in existing evolution models. This work proposes a new evolution model of supply chain with manufactures as the core, based on external market demand and internal competition-cooperation. The evolution model assumes the external market environment is relatively stable, considers several factors, including specific topology of supply chain, external market demand, ecological growth and flow conservation. The simulation results suggest that the networks evolved by our model have similar structures as real supply chains. Meanwhile, the influences of external market demand and internal competition-cooperation to network evolution are analyzed. Additionally, 38 benchmark data sets are applied to validate the rationality of our evolution model, in which, nine manufacturing supply chains match the features of the networks constructed by our model. PMID:29370201
Network evolution model for supply chain with manufactures as the core.
Fang, Haiyang; Jiang, Dali; Yang, Tinghong; Fang, Ling; Yang, Jian; Li, Wu; Zhao, Jing
2018-01-01
Building evolution model of supply chain networks could be helpful to understand its development law. However, specific characteristics and attributes of real supply chains are often neglected in existing evolution models. This work proposes a new evolution model of supply chain with manufactures as the core, based on external market demand and internal competition-cooperation. The evolution model assumes the external market environment is relatively stable, considers several factors, including specific topology of supply chain, external market demand, ecological growth and flow conservation. The simulation results suggest that the networks evolved by our model have similar structures as real supply chains. Meanwhile, the influences of external market demand and internal competition-cooperation to network evolution are analyzed. Additionally, 38 benchmark data sets are applied to validate the rationality of our evolution model, in which, nine manufacturing supply chains match the features of the networks constructed by our model.
Network evolution model for supply chain with manufactures as the core.
Haiyang Fang
Full Text Available Building evolution model of supply chain networks could be helpful to understand its development law. However, specific characteristics and attributes of real supply chains are often neglected in existing evolution models. This work proposes a new evolution model of supply chain with manufactures as the core, based on external market demand and internal competition-cooperation. The evolution model assumes the external market environment is relatively stable, considers several factors, including specific topology of supply chain, external market demand, ecological growth and flow conservation. The simulation results suggest that the networks evolved by our model have similar structures as real supply chains. Meanwhile, the influences of external market demand and internal competition-cooperation to network evolution are analyzed. Additionally, 38 benchmark data sets are applied to validate the rationality of our evolution model, in which, nine manufacturing supply chains match the features of the networks constructed by our model.
A tactical supply chain planning model with multiple flexibility options
Esmaeilikia, Masoud; Fahimnia, Behnam; Sarkis, Joeseph
2016-01-01
Supply chain flexibility is widely recognized as an approach to manage uncertainty. Uncertainty in the supply chain may arise from a number of sources such as demand and supply interruptions and lead time variability. A tactical supply chain planning model with multiple flexibility options...... incorporated in sourcing, manufacturing and logistics functions can be used for the analysis of flexibility adjustment in an existing supply chain. This paper develops such a tactical supply chain planning model incorporating a realistic range of flexibility options. A novel solution method is designed...
Modelling and analysis of workflow for lean supply chains
Ma, Jinping; Wang, Kanliang; Xu, Lida
2011-11-01
Cross-organisational workflow systems are a component of enterprise information systems which support collaborative business process among organisations in supply chain. Currently, the majority of workflow systems is developed in perspectives of information modelling without considering actual requirements of supply chain management. In this article, we focus on the modelling and analysis of the cross-organisational workflow systems in the context of lean supply chain (LSC) using Petri nets. First, the article describes the assumed conditions of cross-organisation workflow net according to the idea of LSC and then discusses the standardisation of collaborating business process between organisations in the context of LSC. Second, the concept of labelled time Petri nets (LTPNs) is defined through combining labelled Petri nets with time Petri nets, and the concept of labelled time workflow nets (LTWNs) is also defined based on LTPNs. Cross-organisational labelled time workflow nets (CLTWNs) is then defined based on LTWNs. Third, the article proposes the notion of OR-silent CLTWNS and a verifying approach to the soundness of LTWNs and CLTWNs. Finally, this article illustrates how to use the proposed method by a simple example. The purpose of this research is to establish a formal method of modelling and analysis of workflow systems for LSC. This study initiates a new perspective of research on cross-organisational workflow management and promotes operation management of LSC in real world settings.
Value Chain Model for Steel Manufacturing Sector: A Case Study
S G Acharyulu; K Venkata Subbaiah; K Narayana Rao
2018-01-01
Michael E Porter developed a value chain model for manufacturing sector with five primary activities and four supporting activities. The value chain model developed by Porter is extended to a steel manufacturing sector due to expansions of steel plants has become a continual process for their growth and survival. In this paper a value chain model for steel manufacturing sector is developed considering five primary activities and six support activities.
Supply chain management based on logistic and statical indicators
Marcin Hajdul
2014-09-01
Full Text Available Background: Article presents a model concept of supporting supply chain management based on predefined correlation between logistic and statistical performance indicators. Paper presents how, set of logistics indicators at different levels of management and a set of statistical indicators broken down by macroeconomic and microeconomic level, can be used in order to improve supply chain management. The correlation coefficients are presented for evaluating the relationships between the selected samples of individual indicators. Methods: In order to present relationships between the indicators used are elements of statistics such as correlation coefficients Spearman's rho and Kendall's tau-b. Results: As a result of work carried out obtained a list of logistics indicators and statistics that can be used when making decisions in supply chain management. Obtained the degree of relationships between the individual indicators, through the designation values of correlation indicators. Conclusions: Efficient supply chain management requires not only the proper selection of indicators, both logistical and statistical, which support decision-making. Important element is also identification of the correlation between the indicators at micro (company and macro (environment level. This will enable the correct way to draw conclusions from the reports and take corrective action for a specific branch or a company.
Boehm, M K; Corper, A L; Wan, T; Sohi, M K; Sutton, B J; Thornton, J D; Keep, P A; Chester, K A; Begent, R H; Perkins, S J
2000-03-01
MFE-23 is the first single-chain Fv antibody molecule to be used in patients and is used to target colorectal cancer through its high affinity for carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), a cell-surface member of the immunoglobulin superfamily. MFE-23 contains an N-terminal variable heavy-chain domain joined by a (Gly(4)Ser)(3) linker to a variable light-chain (V(L)) domain (kappa chain) with an 11-residue C-terminal Myc-tag. Its crystal structure was determined at 2.4 A resolution by molecular replacement with an R(cryst) of 19.0%. Five of the six antigen-binding loops, L1, L2, L3, H1 and H2, conformed to known canonical structures. The sixth loop, H3, displayed a unique structure, with a beta-hairpin loop and a bifurcated apex characterized by a buried Thr residue. In the crystal lattice, two MFE-23 molecules were associated back-to-back in a manner not seen before. The antigen-binding site displayed a large acidic region located mainly within the H2 loop and a large hydrophobic region within the H3 loop. Even though this structure is unliganded within the crystal, there is an unusually large region of contact between the H1, H2 and H3 loops and the beta-sheet of the V(L) domain of an adjacent molecule (strands DEBA) as a result of intermolecular packing. These interactions exhibited remarkably high surface and electrostatic complementarity. Of seven MFE-23 residues predicted to make contact with antigen, five participated in these lattice contacts, and this model for antigen binding is consistent with previously reported site-specific mutagenesis of MFE-23 and its effect on CEA binding.
Towards effective food chains : models and applications
Trienekens, J.H.; Top, J.L.; Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.; Beulens, A.J.M.
2010-01-01
Food chain management research can help in the analysis and redesign of value creation and the product flow throughout the chain from primary producer down to the consumer. The aim is to meet consumer and societal requirements effectively at minimal cost. In the Wageningen UR strategic research
A modeling framework for supply chain simulation
van der Zee, D.J.; van der Vorst, J.G.A.J.
2002-01-01
In many industries logistic optimization on a company scale is no longer sufficient to meet the competition. Nowadays, competition takes place between supply chains. Intrinsic to the concept and success of a supply chain is the tuning of the activities of the companies involved. Given the complexity
A maturity model for industrial supply chains
Hameri, A.P.; McKay, K.N.; Wiers, V.C.S.
2013-01-01
This article takes an evolutionary view of supply chains to suggest a series of distinct, contextual phases for supply chain execution and what maturity might mean at each phase. For example, what is best practice in a mature industry might not be best practice in a pioneering situation.Three
Markov Chain Modelling for Short-Term NDVI Time Series Forecasting
Stepčenko Artūrs
2016-12-01
Full Text Available In this paper, the NDVI time series forecasting model has been developed based on the use of discrete time, continuous state Markov chain of suitable order. The normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI is an indicator that describes the amount of chlorophyll (the green mass and shows the relative density and health of vegetation; therefore, it is an important variable for vegetation forecasting. A Markov chain is a stochastic process that consists of a state space. This stochastic process undergoes transitions from one state to another in the state space with some probabilities. A Markov chain forecast model is flexible in accommodating various forecast assumptions and structures. The present paper discusses the considerations and techniques in building a Markov chain forecast model at each step. Continuous state Markov chain model is analytically described. Finally, the application of the proposed Markov chain model is illustrated with reference to a set of NDVI time series data.
Modeling Radionuclide Decay Chain Migration Using HYDROGEOCHEM
Lin, T. C.; Tsai, C. H.; Lai, K. H.; Chen, J. S.
2014-12-01
Nuclear technology has been employed for energy production for several decades. Although people receive many benefits from nuclear energy, there are inevitably environmental pollutions as well as human health threats posed by the radioactive materials releases from nuclear waste disposed in geological repositories or accidental releases of radionuclides from nuclear facilities. Theoretical studies have been undertaken to understand the transport of radionuclides in subsurface environments because that the radionuclide transport in groundwater is one of the main pathway in exposure scenarios for the intake of radionuclides. The radionuclide transport in groundwater can be predicted using analytical solution as well as numerical models. In this study, we simulate the transport of the radionuclide decay chain using HYDROGEOCHEM. The simulated results are verified against the analytical solution available in the literature. Excellent agreements between the numerical simulation and the analytical are observed for a wide spectrum of concentration. HYDROGECHEM is a useful tool assessing the ecological and environmental impact of the accidental radionuclide releases such as the Fukushima nuclear disaster where multiple radionuclides leaked through the reactor, subsequently contaminating the local groundwater and ocean seawater in the vicinity of the nuclear plant.
Waste Biomass Based Energy Supply Chain Network Design
Hatice Güneş Yıldız
2018-06-01
Full Text Available Reducing dependence on fossil fuels, alleviating environmental impacts and ensuring sustainable economic growth are among the most promising aspects of utilizing renewable energy resources. Biomass is a major renewable energy resource that has the potential for creating sustainable energy systems that are critical in terms of social welfare. Utilization of biomass for bioenergy production is an efficient alternative for meeting rising energy demands, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and thus alleviating climate change. A supply chain for such an energy source is crucial for assisting deliverance of a competitive end product to end-user markets. Considering the existing constraints, a mixed integer linear programming (MILP model for waste biomass based supply chain was proposed in this study for economic performance optimization. Performance of the proposed modelling approach was demonstrated with a real life application study realized in İstanbul. Moreover, sensitivity analyses were conducted which would serve as a foresight for efficient management of the supply chain as a whole
Automated side-chain model building and sequence assignment by template matching
Terwilliger, Thomas C.
2002-01-01
A method for automated macromolecular side-chain model building and for aligning the sequence to the map is described. An algorithm is described for automated building of side chains in an electron-density map once a main-chain model is built and for alignment of the protein sequence to the map. The procedure is based on a comparison of electron density at the expected side-chain positions with electron-density templates. The templates are constructed from average amino-acid side-chain densities in 574 refined protein structures. For each contiguous segment of main chain, a matrix with entries corresponding to an estimate of the probability that each of the 20 amino acids is located at each position of the main-chain model is obtained. The probability that this segment corresponds to each possible alignment with the sequence of the protein is estimated using a Bayesian approach and high-confidence matches are kept. Once side-chain identities are determined, the most probable rotamer for each side chain is built into the model. The automated procedure has been implemented in the RESOLVE software. Combined with automated main-chain model building, the procedure produces a preliminary model suitable for refinement and extension by an experienced crystallographer
Markov Chain Models for the Stochastic Modeling of Pitting Corrosion
Valor, A.; Caleyo, F.; Alfonso, L.; Velázquez, J. C.; Hallen, J. M.
2013-01-01
The stochastic nature of pitting corrosion of metallic structures has been widely recognized. It is assumed that this kind of deterioration retains no memory of the past, so only the current state of the damage influences its future development. This characteristic allows pitting corrosion to be categorized as a Markov process. In this paper, two different models of pitting corrosion, developed using Markov chains, are presented. Firstly, a continuous-time, nonhomogeneous linear growth (pure ...
Guo, Chunxiang; Liu, Xiaoli; Jin, Maozhu; Lv, Zhihan
2016-01-01
Considering the uncertainty of the macroeconomic environment, the robust optimization method is studied for constructing and designing the automotive supply chain network, and based on the definition of robust solution a robust optimization model is built for integrated supply chain network design that consists of supplier selection problem and facility location–distribution problem. The tabu search algorithm is proposed for supply chain node configuration, analyzing the influence of the level of uncertainty on robust results, and by comparing the performance of supply chain network design through the stochastic programming model and robustness optimize model, on this basis, determining the rational layout of supply chain network under macroeconomic fluctuations. At last the contrastive test result validates that the performance of tabu search algorithm is outstanding on convergence and computational time. Meanwhile it is indicated that the robust optimization model can reduce investment risks effectively when it is applied to supply chain network design.
Chain Risk Model for quantifying cost effectiveness of phytosanitary measures
Benninga, J.; Hennen, W.H.G.J.; Schans, van de J.
2010-01-01
A Chain Risk Model (CRM) was developed for a cost effective assessment of phytosanitary measures. The CRM model can be applied to phytosanitary assessments of all agricultural product chains. In CRM, stages are connected by product volume flows with which pest infections can be spread from one stage
Green, Tina M; Jensen, Andreas K; Holst, René
2016-01-01
We present a multiplex analysis for genes known to have prognostic value in an attempt to design a clinically useful classification model in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). Real-time polymerase chain reaction was used to measure transcript levels of 28 relevant genes in 194 de...... models. The best model was validated in data from an online available R-CHOP treated cohort. With progression-free survival (PFS) as primary endpoint, the best performing IPI independent model incorporated the LMO2 and HLADQA1 as well as gene interactions for GCSAMxMIB1, GCSAMxCTGF and FOXP1xPDE4B....... This model assigned 33% of patients (n = 60) to poor outcome with an estimated 3-year PFS of 40% vs. 87% for low risk (n = 61) and intermediate (n = 60) risk groups (P model incorporated LMO2 and BCL2 and assigned 33% of the patients with a 3-year PFS of 35% vs...
Moreno Chaparro, Nicolas
2015-06-30
We introduce a framework for model reduction of polymer chain models for dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) simulations, where the properties governing the phase equilibria such as the characteristic size of the chain, compressibility, density, and temperature are preserved. The proposed methodology reduces the number of degrees of freedom required in traditional DPD representations to model equilibrium properties of systems with complex molecules (e.g., linear polymers). Based on geometrical considerations we explicitly account for the correlation between beads in fine-grained DPD models and consistently represent the effect of these correlations in a reduced model, in a practical and simple fashion via power laws and the consistent scaling of the simulation parameters. In order to satisfy the geometrical constraints in the reduced model we introduce bond-angle potentials that account for the changes in the chain free energy after the model reduction. Following this coarse-graining process we represent high molecular weight DPD chains (i.e., ≥200≥200 beads per chain) with a significant reduction in the number of particles required (i.e., ≥20≥20 times the original system). We show that our methodology has potential applications modeling systems of high molecular weight molecules at large scales, such as diblock copolymer and DNA.
Design of Test Wrapper Scan Chain Based on Differential Evolution
Aijun Zhu
2013-08-01
Full Text Available Integrated Circuit has entered the era of design of the IP-based SoC (System on Chip, which makes the IP core reuse become a key issue. SoC test wrapper design for scan chain is a NP Hard problem, we propose an algorithm based on Differential Evolution (DE to design wrapper scan chain. Through group’s mutation, crossover and selection operations, the design of test wrapper scan chain is achieved. Experimental verification is carried out according to the international standard benchmark ITC’02. The results show that the algorithm can obtain shorter longest wrapper scan chains, compared with other algorithms.
CHAIN-WISE GENERALIZATION OF ROAD NETWORKS USING MODEL SELECTION
D. Bulatov
2017-05-01
Full Text Available Streets are essential entities of urban terrain and their automatized extraction from airborne sensor data is cumbersome because of a complex interplay of geometric, topological and semantic aspects. Given a binary image, representing the road class, centerlines of road segments are extracted by means of skeletonization. The focus of this paper lies in a well-reasoned representation of these segments by means of geometric primitives, such as straight line segments as well as circle and ellipse arcs. We propose the fusion of raw segments based on similarity criteria; the output of this process are the so-called chains which better match to the intuitive perception of what a street is. Further, we propose a two-step approach for chain-wise generalization. First, the chain is pre-segmented using circlePeucker and finally, model selection is used to decide whether two neighboring segments should be fused to a new geometric entity. Thereby, we consider both variance-covariance analysis of residuals and model complexity. The results on a complex data-set with many traffic roundabouts indicate the benefits of the proposed procedure.
Closed-Loop Supply Chain Planning Model of Rare Metals
Dongmin Son
2018-04-01
Full Text Available Rare metals (RMs are becoming increasingly important in high-tech industries associated with the Fourth Industrial Revolution, such as the electric vehicle (EV and 3D printer industries. As the growth of these industries accelerates in the near future, manufacturers will also face greater RM supply risks. For this reason, many countries are putting considerable effort into securing the RM supply. For example, countries including Japan, Korea, and the USA have adopted two major policies: the stockpile system and Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR. Therefore, it is necessary for the manufacturers with RMs to establish a suitable supply chain plan that reflects this situation. In this study, the RM classification matrix is created based on the stockpile and recycling level in Korea. Accordingly, three different types of supply chain are designed in order to develop the closed-loop supply chain (CLSC planning model of RM, and the CLSC planning models of RM are validated through experimental analysis. The results show that the stockpiling and the EPR recycling obligation increase the amount of recycled flow and reduce the total cost of the part manufacturing, which means that these two factors are significant for obtaining sustainability of the RMs’ CLSC. In addition, the government needs to set an appropriate sharing cost for promoting the manufacturer’s recycling. Also, from the manufacturer’s perspective, it is better to increase the return rate by making a contract with the collectors to guarantee the collection of used products.
System Dynamics Model for VMI&TPL Integrated Supply Chains
Guo Li
2013-01-01
Full Text Available This paper establishes VMI-APIOBPCS II model by extending VMI-APIOBPCS model from serial supply chain to distribution supply chain. Then TPL is introduced to this VMI distribution supply chain, and operational framework and process of VMI&TPL integrated supply chain are analyzed deeply. On this basis VMI-APIOBPCS II model is then changed to VMI&TPL-APIOBPCS model and VMI&TPL integrated operation mode is simulated. Finally, compared with VMI-APIOBPCS model, the TPL’s important role of goods consolidation and risk sharing in VMI&TPL integrated supply chain is analyzed in detail from the aspects of bullwhip effect, inventory level, service level, and so on.
Innovative supply chain optimization models with multiple uncertainty factors
Choi, Tsan Ming; Govindan, Kannan; Li, Xiang
2017-01-01
Uncertainty is an inherent factor that affects all dimensions of supply chain activities. In today’s business environment, initiatives to deal with one specific type of uncertainty might not be effective since other types of uncertainty factors and disruptions may be present. These factors relate...... to supply chain competition and coordination. Thus, to achieve a more efficient and effective supply chain requires the deployment of innovative optimization models and novel methods. This preface provides a concise review of critical research issues regarding innovative supply chain optimization models...
Partner Selection Optimization Model of Agricultural Enterprises in Supply Chain
Feipeng Guo; Qibei Lu
2013-01-01
With more and more importance of correctly selecting partners in supply chain of agricultural enterprises, a large number of partner evaluation techniques are widely used in the field of agricultural science research. This study established a partner selection model to optimize the issue of agricultural supply chain partner selection. Firstly, it constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system after analyzing the real characteristics of agricultural supply chain. Secondly, a heuristic met...
Yanfeng Wang
2017-01-01
Full Text Available This paper investigates the observer-based controller design problem for a class of nonlinear networked control systems with random time-delays. The nonlinearity is assumed to satisfy a global Lipschitz condition and two dependent Markov chains are employed to describe the time-delay from sensor to controller (S-C delay and the time-delay from controller to actuator (C-A delay, respectively. The transition probabilities of S-C delay and C-A delay are both assumed to be partly inaccessible. Sufficient conditions on the stochastic stability for the closed-loop systems are obtained by constructing proper Lyapunov functional. The methods of calculating the controller and the observer gain matrix are also given. Two numerical examples are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Dynamic model for tritium transfer in an aquatic food chain.
Melintescu, A; Galeriu, D
2011-08-01
Tritium ((3)H) is released from some nuclear facilities in relatively large quantities. It is a ubiquitous isotope because it enters straight into organisms, behaving essentially identically to its stable analogue (hydrogen). Tritium is a key radionuclide in the aquatic environment, in some cases, contributing significantly to the doses received by aquatic, non-human biota and by humans. The updated model presented here is based on more standardized, comprehensive assessments than previously used for the aquatic food chain, including the benthic flora and fauna, with an explicit application to the Danube ecosystem, as well as an extension to the special case of dissolved organic tritium (DOT). The model predicts the organically bound tritium (OBT) in the primary producers (the autotrophs, such as phytoplankton and algae) and in the consumers (the heterotrophs) using their bioenergetics, which involves the investigation of energy expenditure, losses, gains and efficiencies of transformations in the body. The model described in the present study intends to be more specific than a screening-level model, by including a metabolic approach and a description of the direct uptake of DOT in marine phytoplankton and invertebrates. For a better control of tritium transfer into the environment, not only tritiated water must be monitored, but also the other chemical forms and most importantly OBT, in the food chain.
Process chain modeling and selection in an additive manufacturing context
Thompson, Mary Kathryn; Stolfi, Alessandro; Mischkot, Michael
2016-01-01
This paper introduces a new two-dimensional approach to modeling manufacturing process chains. This approach is used to consider the role of additive manufacturing technologies in process chains for a part with micro scale features and no internal geometry. It is shown that additive manufacturing...... evolving fields like additive manufacturing....
Hughes, Natalie M.; Shahi, Chander; Pulkki, Reino
2014-01-01
We reviewed 153 peer-reviewed sources to provide identification of modern supply chain management techniques and exploration of supply chain modeling, to offer decision support to managers. Ultimately, the review is intended to assist member-companies of supply chains, mainly producers, improve their current management approaches, by directing them to studies that may be suitable for direct application to their supply chains and value chains for improved efficiency and profitability. We found...
A Markov chain model for CANDU feeder pipe degradation
Datla, S.; Dinnie, K.; Usmani, A.; Yuan, X.-X.
2008-01-01
There is need for risk based approach to manage feeder pipe degradation to ensure safe operation by minimizing the nuclear safety risk. The current lack of understanding of some fundamental degradation mechanisms will result in uncertainty in predicting the rupture frequency. There are still concerns caused by uncertainties in the inspection techniques and engineering evaluations which should be addressed in the current procedures. A probabilistic approach is therefore useful in quantifying the risk and also it provides a tool for risk based decision making. This paper discusses the application of Markov chain model for feeder pipes in order to predict and manage the risks associated with the existing and future aging-related feeder degradation mechanisms. The major challenge in the approach is the lack of service data in characterizing the transition probabilities of the Markov model. The paper also discusses various approaches in estimating plant specific degradation rates. (author)
Impact of Supply Chain Alignment on Construction Performance: A developed model for Vietnam
Huy Troung Quang
2017-12-01
Full Text Available There are many articles mentioning the advantages and benefits of supply chain alignment none, however, describe how to model such alignment in the supply chain. This paper offers a framework for examining and understanding the impact supply chain alignment has on performance. Based on supply chain mapping approach, a model describing alignment between processes/ flows in the supply chain network is developed. The model is then validated using a dataset of 316 enterprises operating in the Vietnam construction sector. Evidence indicates that the supply chain processes and flows were aligned. According to the results, the proposed supply chain alignment model is able to explain a 59.9% variance in operational performance, 58.9% in customer satisfaction, 34.5% in operating costs and 67.4% in business performance. To successfully align the supply chain network, companies can use the proposed model as a “road-map” to reduce high costs, to avoid the loss of control, management difficulties and/or vulnerability to opportunistic action, all of which may hinder efforts to align the supply chains.
Automated side-chain model building and sequence assignment by template matching.
Terwilliger, Thomas C
2003-01-01
An algorithm is described for automated building of side chains in an electron-density map once a main-chain model is built and for alignment of the protein sequence to the map. The procedure is based on a comparison of electron density at the expected side-chain positions with electron-density templates. The templates are constructed from average amino-acid side-chain densities in 574 refined protein structures. For each contiguous segment of main chain, a matrix with entries corresponding to an estimate of the probability that each of the 20 amino acids is located at each position of the main-chain model is obtained. The probability that this segment corresponds to each possible alignment with the sequence of the protein is estimated using a Bayesian approach and high-confidence matches are kept. Once side-chain identities are determined, the most probable rotamer for each side chain is built into the model. The automated procedure has been implemented in the RESOLVE software. Combined with automated main-chain model building, the procedure produces a preliminary model suitable for refinement and extension by an experienced crystallographer.
Markov chain modelling of pitting corrosion in underground pipelines
Caleyo, F. [Departamento de Ingenieri' a Metalurgica, ESIQIE, IPN, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico D. F. 07738 (Mexico)], E-mail: fcaleyo@gmail.com; Velazquez, J.C. [Departamento de Ingenieri' a Metalurgica, ESIQIE, IPN, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico D. F. 07738 (Mexico); Valor, A. [Facultad de Fisica, Universidad de La Habana, San Lazaro y L, Vedado, 10400 La Habana (Cuba); Hallen, J.M. [Departamento de Ingenieri' a Metalurgica, ESIQIE, IPN, UPALM Edif. 7, Zacatenco, Mexico D. F. 07738 (Mexico)
2009-09-15
A continuous-time, non-homogenous linear growth (pure birth) Markov process has been used to model external pitting corrosion in underground pipelines. The closed form solution of Kolmogorov's forward equations for this type of Markov process is used to describe the transition probability function in a discrete pit depth space. The identification of the transition probability function can be achieved by correlating the stochastic pit depth mean with the deterministic mean obtained experimentally. Monte-Carlo simulations previously reported have been used to predict the time evolution of the mean value of the pit depth distribution for different soil textural classes. The simulated distributions have been used to create an empirical Markov chain-based stochastic model for predicting the evolution of pitting corrosion depth and rate distributions from the observed properties of the soil. The proposed model has also been applied to pitting corrosion data from pipeline repeated in-line inspections and laboratory immersion experiments.
Markov chain modelling of pitting corrosion in underground pipelines
Caleyo, F.; Velazquez, J.C.; Valor, A.; Hallen, J.M.
2009-01-01
A continuous-time, non-homogenous linear growth (pure birth) Markov process has been used to model external pitting corrosion in underground pipelines. The closed form solution of Kolmogorov's forward equations for this type of Markov process is used to describe the transition probability function in a discrete pit depth space. The identification of the transition probability function can be achieved by correlating the stochastic pit depth mean with the deterministic mean obtained experimentally. Monte-Carlo simulations previously reported have been used to predict the time evolution of the mean value of the pit depth distribution for different soil textural classes. The simulated distributions have been used to create an empirical Markov chain-based stochastic model for predicting the evolution of pitting corrosion depth and rate distributions from the observed properties of the soil. The proposed model has also been applied to pitting corrosion data from pipeline repeated in-line inspections and laboratory immersion experiments.
Example models of building trust in supply chains of metalurgical enterprises
B. Gajdzik
2012-10-01
Full Text Available The article is an introduction to the notion of building trust in supply chains. Foreign publishers offer many articles connected with trust and some of the most important ones were quoted in this article. In business world there are models based on trust of the companies which are connected with one another and such models are very popular. Trust becomes the key link in the organisation of supply chains. It is one of the basic mechanisms of action co-ordination which provides the correctness of functioning in the whole chain. The growth of importance of trust between the links of the chain is also observed in metallurgy sector. For the purpose of this publication example models of supply chains structures were constructed in which relationships are based on mutual trust with characteristics of the metallurgical sector taken into account.
Modeling methodology for supply chain synthesis and disruption analysis
Wu, Teresa; Blackhurst, Jennifer
2004-11-01
The concept of an integrated or synthesized supply chain is a strategy for managing today's globalized and customer driven supply chains in order to better meet customer demands. Synthesizing individual entities into an integrated supply chain can be a challenging task due to a variety of factors including conflicting objectives, mismatched incentives and constraints of the individual entities. Furthermore, understanding the effects of disruptions occurring at any point in the system is difficult when working toward synthesizing supply chain operations. Therefore, the goal of this research is to present a modeling methodology to manage the synthesis of a supply chain by linking hierarchical levels of the system and to model and analyze disruptions in the integrated supply chain. The contribution of this research is threefold: (1) supply chain systems can be modeled hierarchically (2) the performance of synthesized supply chain system can be evaluated quantitatively (3) reachability analysis is used to evaluate the system performance and verify whether a specific state is reachable, allowing the user to understand the extent of effects of a disruption.
Estimating Model Probabilities using Thermodynamic Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods
Ye, M.; Liu, P.; Beerli, P.; Lu, D.; Hill, M. C.
2014-12-01
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are widely used to evaluate model probability for quantifying model uncertainty. In a general procedure, MCMC simulations are first conducted for each individual model, and MCMC parameter samples are then used to approximate marginal likelihood of the model by calculating the geometric mean of the joint likelihood of the model and its parameters. It has been found the method of evaluating geometric mean suffers from the numerical problem of low convergence rate. A simple test case shows that even millions of MCMC samples are insufficient to yield accurate estimation of the marginal likelihood. To resolve this problem, a thermodynamic method is used to have multiple MCMC runs with different values of a heating coefficient between zero and one. When the heating coefficient is zero, the MCMC run is equivalent to a random walk MC in the prior parameter space; when the heating coefficient is one, the MCMC run is the conventional one. For a simple case with analytical form of the marginal likelihood, the thermodynamic method yields more accurate estimate than the method of using geometric mean. This is also demonstrated for a case of groundwater modeling with consideration of four alternative models postulated based on different conceptualization of a confining layer. This groundwater example shows that model probabilities estimated using the thermodynamic method are more reasonable than those obtained using the geometric method. The thermodynamic method is general, and can be used for a wide range of environmental problem for model uncertainty quantification.
Xin Xu
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Purpose: At the dynamic innovation market, it is very difficult for an enterprise to accomplish innovation individually; technology innovation is shifting towards collaborative R&D chain mode. Thus, supplier selection based on individually innovation efficiency of enterprise is inapplicable to construct collaborative R&D innovation chain. This study is seeking to address how to select R&D innovation chain supplier in manufacturing industry. Design/methodology/approach: Firstly, Delphi method and AHP method are applied to establish an index system evaluating the suppliers of innovation chain, and then each index is weighted by experts with AHP method. Thirdly, optimized PSO algorithm is put forwarded based on the optimal efficiency of innovation chain to discriminate ideal suppliers meeting realistic conditions. Fourthly, innovation chain construction at generator manufacturing industry was taken as empirical case study to testify the improved PSO model. Findings: The innovation chain is comprised up by several enterprises, innovation performance of a single enterprise is not always positively correlated to that of one innovation chain, and the proposed model is capable to find out the best combination to construct an innovation chain. Research limitations/implications: The relations between these constructs with other variables of interest to the academicals fields were analyzed by a precise and credible data with a clear and concise description of the supply chain integration measurement scales. Practical implications: providing scales that are valid as a diagnostic tool for best practices, as well as providing a benchmark with which to compare the score for each individual plant against a chain of industrial innovation from machinery. Originality/value: Innovation chain integration is an important factor in explaining the innovation performance of companies. The vast range of results obtained is due to the fact that there is no exactness to
A simplified parsimonious higher order multivariate Markov chain model
Wang, Chao; Yang, Chuan-sheng
2017-09-01
In this paper, a simplified parsimonious higher-order multivariate Markov chain model (SPHOMMCM) is presented. Moreover, parameter estimation method of TPHOMMCM is give. Numerical experiments shows the effectiveness of TPHOMMCM.
A tridiagonal parsimonious higher order multivariate Markov chain model
Wang, Chao; Yang, Chuan-sheng
2017-09-01
In this paper, we present a tridiagonal parsimonious higher-order multivariate Markov chain model (TPHOMMCM). Moreover, estimation method of the parameters in TPHOMMCM is give. Numerical experiments illustrate the effectiveness of TPHOMMCM.
Evaluating approaches to find exon chains based on long reads.
Kuosmanen, Anna; Norri, Tuukka; Mäkinen, Veli
2018-05-01
Transcript prediction can be modeled as a graph problem where exons are modeled as nodes and reads spanning two or more exons are modeled as exon chains. Pacific Biosciences third-generation sequencing technology produces significantly longer reads than earlier second-generation sequencing technologies, which gives valuable information about longer exon chains in a graph. However, with the high error rates of third-generation sequencing, aligning long reads correctly around the splice sites is a challenging task. Incorrect alignments lead to spurious nodes and arcs in the graph, which in turn lead to incorrect transcript predictions. We survey several approaches to find the exon chains corresponding to long reads in a splicing graph, and experimentally study the performance of these methods using simulated data to allow for sensitivity/precision analysis. Our experiments show that short reads from second-generation sequencing can be used to significantly improve exon chain correctness either by error-correcting the long reads before splicing graph creation, or by using them to create a splicing graph on which the long-read alignments are then projected. We also study the memory and time consumption of various modules, and show that accurate exon chains lead to significantly increased transcript prediction accuracy. The simulated data and in-house scripts used for this article are available at http://www.cs.helsinki.fi/group/gsa/exon-chains/exon-chains-bib.tar.bz2.
Gruber, B.; Thomas, M.S.
1980-01-01
In this article the symmetry chains for the atomic shell model are classified in such a way that they lead from the group SU(4l+2) to its subgroup SOsub(J)(3). The atomic configurations (nl)sup(N) transform like irreducible representations of the group SU(4l+2), while SOsub(J)(3) corresponds to total angular momentum in SU(4l+2). The defining matrices for the various embeddings are given for each symmetry chain that is obtained. These matrices also define the projection onto the weight subspaces for the corresponding subsymmetries and thus relate the various quantum numbers and determine the branching of representations. It is shown in this article that three (interrelated) symmetry chains are obtained which correspond to L-S coupling, j-j coupling, and a seniority dependent coupling. Moreover, for l<=6 these chains are complete, i.e., there are no other chains but these. In articles to follow, the symmetry chains that lead from the group SO(8l+5) to SOsub(J)(3) will be discussed, with the entire atomic shell transforming like an irreducible representation of SO(8l+5). The transformation properties of the states of the atomic shell will be determined according to the various symmetry chains obtained. The symmetry lattice discussed in this article forms a sublattice of the larger symmetry lattice with SO(8l+5) as supergroup. Thus the transformation properties of the states of the atomic configurations, according to the various symmetry chains discussed in this article, will be obtained too. (author)
Modeling sustainability in renewable energy supply chain systems
Xie, Fei
This dissertation aims at modeling sustainability of renewable fuel supply chain systems against emerging challenges. In particular, the dissertation focuses on the biofuel supply chain system design, and manages to develop advanced modeling framework and corresponding solution methods in tackling challenges in sustaining biofuel supply chain systems. These challenges include: (1) to integrate "environmental thinking" into the long-term biofuel supply chain planning; (2) to adopt multimodal transportation to mitigate seasonality in biofuel supply chain operations; (3) to provide strategies in hedging against uncertainty from conversion technology; and (4) to develop methodologies in long-term sequential planning of the biofuel supply chain under uncertainties. All models are mixed integer programs, which also involves multi-objective programming method and two-stage/multistage stochastic programming methods. In particular for the long-term sequential planning under uncertainties, to reduce the computational challenges due to the exponential expansion of the scenario tree, I also developed efficient ND-Max method which is more efficient than CPLEX and Nested Decomposition method. Through result analysis of four independent studies, it is found that the proposed modeling frameworks can effectively improve the economic performance, enhance environmental benefits and reduce risks due to systems uncertainties for the biofuel supply chain systems.
The SU(2 vertical stroke 3) spin chain sigma model
Hernandez, R.; Lopez, E.
2005-01-01
The one-loop planar dilatation operator of N = 4 supersymmetric Yang-Mills is isomorphic to the hamiltonian of an integrable PSU(2,2 vertical stroke 4) spin chain. We construct the non-linear sigma model describing the continuum limit of the SU(2 vertical stroke 3) subsector of the N = 4 chain. We explicitly identify the spin chain sigma model with the one for a superstring moving in AdS 5 x S 5 with large angular momentum along the five-sphere. (Abstract Copyright [2005], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)
Effect of including decay chains on predictions of equilibrium-type terrestrial food chain models
Kirchner, G.
1990-01-01
Equilibrium-type food chain models are commonly used for assessing the radiological impact to man from environmental releases of radionuclides. Usually these do not take into account build-up of radioactive decay products during environmental transport. This may be a potential source of underprediction. For estimating consequences of this simplification, the equations of an internationally recognised terrestrial food chain model have been extended to include decay chains of variable length. Example calculations show that for releases from light water reactors as expected both during routine operation and in the case of severe accidents, the build-up of decay products during environmental transport is generally of minor importance. However, a considerable number of radionuclides of potential radiological significance have been identified which show marked contributions of decay products to calculated contamination of human food and resulting radiation dose rates. (author)
Ising model on tangled chain - 1: Free energy and entropy
Mejdani, R.
1993-04-01
In this paper we have considered an Ising model defined on tangled chain, in which more bonds have been added to those of pure Ising chain. to understand their competition, particularly between ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic bonds, we have studied, using the transfer matrix method, some simple analytical calculations and an iterative algorithm, the behaviour of the free energy and entropy, particularly in the zero-field and zero temperature limit, for different configurations of the ferromagnetic tangled chain and different types of addition interaction (ferromagnetic or antiferromagnetic). We found that the condition J=J' between the ferromagnetic interaction J along the chain and the antiferromagnetic interaction J' across the chain is somewhat as a ''transition-region'' condition for this behaviour. Our results indicate also the existence of non-zero entropy at zero temperature. (author). 17 refs, 8 figs
Thermal conductivity of the Lennard-Jones chain fluid model.
Galliero, Guillaume; Boned, Christian
2009-12-01
Nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulations have been performed to estimate, analyze, and correlate the thermal conductivity of a fluid composed of short Lennard-Jones chains (up to 16 segments) over a large range of thermodynamic conditions. It is shown that the dilute gas contribution to the thermal conductivity decreases when the chain length increases for a given temperature. In dense states, simulation results indicate that the residual thermal conductivity of the monomer increases strongly with density, but is weakly dependent on the temperature. Compared to the monomer value, it has been noted that the residual thermal conductivity of the chain was slightly decreasing with its length. Using these results, an empirical relation, including a contribution due to the critical enhancement, is proposed to provide an accurate estimation of the thermal conductivity of the Lennard-Jones chain fluid model (up to 16 segments) over the domain 0.8values of the Lennard-Jones chain fluid model merge on the same "universal" curve when plotted as a function of the excess entropy. Furthermore, it is shown that the reduced configurational thermal conductivity of the Lennard-Jones chain fluid model is approximately proportional to the reduced excess entropy for all fluid states and all chain lengths.
[Healthcare value chain: a model for the Brazilian healthcare system].
Pedroso, Marcelo Caldeira; Malik, Ana Maria
2012-10-01
This article presents a model of the healthcare value chain which consists of a schematic representation of the Brazilian healthcare system. The proposed model is adapted for the Brazilian reality and has the scope and flexibility for use in academic activities and analysis of the healthcare sector in Brazil. It places emphasis on three components: the main activities of the value chain, grouped in vertical and horizontal links; the mission of each link and the main value chain flows. The proposed model consists of six vertical and three horizontal links, amounting to nine. These are: knowledge development; supply of products and technologies; healthcare services; financial intermediation; healthcare financing; healthcare consumption; regulation; distribution of healthcare products; and complementary and support services. Four flows can be used to analyze the value chain: knowledge and innovation; products and services; financial; and information.
Optimization of Consignment-Store-Based Supply Chain with Black Hole Algorithm
Ágota Bányai
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The globalization of economy and market led to increased networking in the field of manufacturing and services. These manufacturing and service processes including supply chain became more and more complex. The supply chain includes in many cases consignment stores. The design and operation of these complex supply chain processes can be described as NP-hard optimization problems. These problems can be solved using sophisticated models and methods based on metaheuristic algorithms. This research proposes an integrated supply model based on consignment stores. After a careful literature review, this paper introduces a mathematical model to formulate the problem of consignment-store-based supply chain optimization. The integrated model includes facility location and assignment problems to be solved. Next, an enhanced black hole algorithm dealing with multiobjective supply chain model is presented. The sensitivity analysis of the heuristic black hole optimization method is also described to check the efficiency of new operators to increase the convergence of the algorithm. Numerical results with different datasets demonstrate how the proposed model supports the efficiency, flexibility, and reliability of the consignment-store-based supply chain.
Competence-Based Approach in Value Chain Processes
Azevedo, Rodrigo Cambiaghi; D'Amours, Sophie; Rönnqvist, Mikael
There is a gap between competence theory and value chain processes frameworks. While individually considered as core elements in contemporary management thinking, the integration of the two concepts is still lacking. We claim that this integration would allow for the development of more robust business models by structuring value chain activities around aspects such as capabilities and skills, as well as individual and organizational knowledge. In this context, the objective of this article is to reduce this gap and consequently open a field for further improvements of value chain processes frameworks.
Specific heat study of quasi-one-dimensional antiferromagnetic model for an organic polymer chain
Qu Shaohua; Zhu Lin
2008-01-01
The specific heat of an infinite one-dimensional polymer chain bearing periodically arranged side radicals connected to the even sites is studied by means of quantum transfer-matrix method based on a Ising-Heisenberg model. In the absence of the exchange interactions between side radicals and the main chain, the curves of specific heat show a round peak due to the antiferromagnetic excitations for the all antiferromagnetic interactions along the polymer chain. Considering the exchange interactions between the side radicals and the main chain, the curves of the specific heat show double-peak structure for ferromagnetic interactions between the radicals and main chain, indicating that a competition between ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic interactions and the possibility of the occurrence of the stable ferrimagnetic state along the polymer chain
Markov Chain Models for the Stochastic Modeling of Pitting Corrosion
A. Valor
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The stochastic nature of pitting corrosion of metallic structures has been widely recognized. It is assumed that this kind of deterioration retains no memory of the past, so only the current state of the damage influences its future development. This characteristic allows pitting corrosion to be categorized as a Markov process. In this paper, two different models of pitting corrosion, developed using Markov chains, are presented. Firstly, a continuous-time, nonhomogeneous linear growth (pure birth Markov process is used to model external pitting corrosion in underground pipelines. A closed-form solution of the system of Kolmogorov's forward equations is used to describe the transition probability function in a discrete pit depth space. The transition probability function is identified by correlating the stochastic pit depth mean with the empirical deterministic mean. In the second model, the distribution of maximum pit depths in a pitting experiment is successfully modeled after the combination of two stochastic processes: pit initiation and pit growth. Pit generation is modeled as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process, in which induction time is simulated as the realization of a Weibull process. Pit growth is simulated using a nonhomogeneous Markov process. An analytical solution of Kolmogorov's system of equations is also found for the transition probabilities from the first Markov state. Extreme value statistics is employed to find the distribution of maximum pit depths.
Descriptive and predictive evaluation of high resolution Markov chain precipitation models
Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Madsen, Henrik; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten
2012-01-01
A time series of tipping bucket recordings of very high temporal and volumetric resolution precipitation is modelled using Markov chain models. Both first and second‐order Markov models as well as seasonal and diurnal models are investigated and evaluated using likelihood based techniques. The fi...
Mimouni, F.; Abouabdellah, A.
2016-07-01
Propose a modeling and analysis methodology based on the combination of Bayesian networks and Petri networks of the reverse logistics integrated the direct supply chain. Network modeling by combining Petri and Bayesian network. Modeling with Bayesian network complimented with Petri network to break the cycle problem in the Bayesian network. Demands are independent from returns. Model can only be used on nonperishable products. Legislation aspects: Recycling laws; Protection of environment; Client satisfaction via after sale service. Bayesian network with a cycle combined with the Petri Network. (Author)
Faycal Mimouni
2016-04-01
Full Text Available Purpose: Propose a modeling and analysis methodology based on the combination of Bayesian networks and Petri networks of the reverse logistics integrated the direct supply chain. Design/methodology/approach: Network modeling by combining Petri and Bayesian network. Findings: Modeling with Bayesian network complimented with Petri network to break the cycle problem in the Bayesian network. Research limitations/implications: Demands are independent from returns. Practical implications: Model can only be used on nonperishable products. Social implications: Legislation aspects: Recycling laws; Protection of environment; Client satisfaction via after sale service. Originality/value: Bayesian network with a cycle combined with the Petri Network.
Internet-enabled collaborative agent-based supply chains
Shen, Weiming; Kremer, Rob; Norrie, Douglas H.
2000-12-01
This paper presents some results of our recent research work related to the development of a new Collaborative Agent System Architecture (CASA) and an Infrastructure for Collaborative Agent Systems (ICAS). Initially being proposed as a general architecture for Internet based collaborative agent systems (particularly complex industrial collaborative agent systems), the proposed architecture is very suitable for managing the Internet enabled complex supply chain for a large manufacturing enterprise. The general collaborative agent system architecture with the basic communication and cooperation services, domain independent components, prototypes and mechanisms are described. Benefits of implementing Internet enabled supply chains with the proposed infrastructure are discussed. A case study on Internet enabled supply chain management is presented.
Chiadamrong, N.; Piyathanavong, V.
2017-12-01
Models that aim to optimize the design of supply chain networks have gained more interest in the supply chain literature. Mixed-integer linear programming and discrete-event simulation are widely used for such an optimization problem. We present a hybrid approach to support decisions for supply chain network design using a combination of analytical and discrete-event simulation models. The proposed approach is based on iterative procedures until the difference between subsequent solutions satisfies the pre-determined termination criteria. The effectiveness of proposed approach is illustrated by an example, which shows closer to optimal results with much faster solving time than the results obtained from the conventional simulation-based optimization model. The efficacy of this proposed hybrid approach is promising and can be applied as a powerful tool in designing a real supply chain network. It also provides the possibility to model and solve more realistic problems, which incorporate dynamism and uncertainty.
Power plant reliability calculation with Markov chain models
Senegacnik, A.; Tuma, M.
1998-01-01
In the paper power plant operation is modelled using continuous time Markov chains with discrete state space. The model is used to compute the power plant reliability and the importance and influence of individual states, as well as the transition probabilities between states. For comparison the model is fitted to data for coal and nuclear power plants recorded over several years. (orig.) [de
Inozemtsev's hyperbolic spin model and its related spin chain
Barba, J.C.; Finkel, F.; Gonzalez-Lopez, A.; Rodriguez, M.A.
2010-01-01
In this paper we study Inozemtsev's su(m) quantum spin model with hyperbolic interactions and the associated spin chain of Haldane-Shastry type introduced by Frahm and Inozemtsev. We compute the spectrum of Inozemtsev's model, and use this result and the freezing trick to derive a simple analytic expression for the partition function of the Frahm-Inozemtsev chain. We show that the energy levels of the latter chain can be written in terms of the usual motifs for the Haldane-Shastry chain, although with a different dispersion relation. The formula for the partition function is used to analyze the behavior of the level density and the distribution of spacings between consecutive unfolded levels. We discuss the relevance of our results in connection with two well-known conjectures in quantum chaos.
Challenges for bio-based products in sustainable value chains
Cardon, L.; Lin, J.W.; De Groote, M.; Ragaert, K.; Kopecka, J.A.; Koster, R.P.
2011-01-01
This work concerns studies related to strategic development of products in which bio-based plastics are or will be applied, referred to as bio-based products. The studies cover (1) current and potential benefits of bio-based products in extended value chains including activities after end-of-life of
Kinks, chains, and loop groups in the CPn sigma models
Harland, Derek
2009-01-01
We consider topological solitons in the CP n sigma models in two space dimensions. In particular, we study 'kinks', which are independent of one coordinate up to a rotation of the target space, and 'chains', which are periodic in one coordinate up to a rotation of the target space. Kinks and chains both exhibit constituents, similar to monopoles and calorons in SU(n) Yang-Mills-Higgs and Yang-Mills theories. We examine the constituent structure using Lie algebras.
A Model for Sustainable Value Creation in Supply Chain
KORDİTABAR, Seyed Behzad
2015-01-01
Abstract. In order to survive, every company needs to achieve sustainable profitability, which is impossible unless there is sustainable value creation. Regarding the fact that sustainability is closely related with concepts of supply chain management, the present paper intends to propose through a conceptual theorization approach a new comprehensive model drawing on concepts of value creation and sustainability from the perspective of supply chain, specifying the dimensions contributing to s...
Demographic Modeling Via 3-dimensional Markov Chains
Viquez, Juan Jose; Campos, Alexander; Loria, Jorge; Mendoza, Luis Alfredo; Viquez, Jorge Aurelio
2017-01-01
This article presents a new model for demographic simulation which can be used to forecast and estimate the number of people in pension funds (contributors and retirees) as well as workers in a public institution. Furthermore, the model introduces opportunities to quantify the financial ows coming from future populations such as salaries, contributions, salary supplements, employer contribution to savings/pensions, among others. The implementation of this probabilistic model will be of great ...
Simulation of daily rainfall through markov chain modeling
Sadiq, N.
2015-01-01
Being an agricultural country, the inhabitants of dry land in cultivated areas mainly rely on the daily rainfall for watering their fields. A stochastic model based on first order Markov Chain was developed to simulate daily rainfall data for Multan, D. I. Khan, Nawabshah, Chilas and Barkhan for the period 1981-2010. Transitional probability matrices of first order Markov Chain was utilized to generate the daily rainfall occurrence while gamma distribution was used to generate the daily rainfall amount. In order to achieve the parametric values of mentioned cities, method of moments is used to estimate the shape and scale parameters which lead to synthetic sequence generation as per gamma distribution. In this study, unconditional and conditional probabilities of wet and dry days in sum with means and standard deviations are considered as the essential parameters for the simulated stochastic generation of daily rainfalls. It has been found that the computerized synthetic rainfall series concurred pretty well with the actual observed rainfall series. (author)
Modelling of 137Cs concentration change in organisms of the Japanese coastal food chains
Tateda, Y.; Nakahara, M.; Nakamura, R.
1999-01-01
In order to predict 137 CS concentrations in marine organisms of Japanese coastal food chains, a basic compartment model being composed of nuclide transfer both from seawater and food chain was investigated. Food chain structure of typical Japanese coastal water is established to include detritus, food chain, benthic food chain and planktonic food chain
Fracture Mechanical Markov Chain Crack Growth Model
Gansted, L.; Brincker, Rune; Hansen, Lars Pilegaard
1991-01-01
propagation process can be described by a discrete space Markov theory. The model is applicable to deterministic as well as to random loading. Once the model parameters for a given material have been determined, the results can be used for any structure as soon as the geometrical function is known....
Tool-chain for online modeling of the LHC
Mueller, G.J.; Buffat, X.; Fuchsberger, K.; Giovannozzi, M.; Redaelli, S.; Schmidt, F.
2012-01-01
The control of high intensity beams in a high energy, superconducting machine with complex optics like the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC) is challenging not only from the design aspect but also for operation towards physics production. To support the LHC beam commissioning, efforts were devoted to the design and implementation of a software infrastructure aimed at using the computing power of the beam dynamics code MAD-X in the framework of the JAVA-based LHC control and measurement environment. Alongside interfaces to measurement data as well as to settings of the control system, the best knowledge of machine aperture and optic models is provided. In this paper, we will present the status of the tool chain and illustrate how it has been used during commissioning and operation of the LHC. Possible future implementations will be discussed. (authors)
A chain-retrieval model for voluntary task switching.
Vandierendonck, André; Demanet, Jelle; Liefooghe, Baptist; Verbruggen, Frederick
2012-09-01
To account for the findings obtained in voluntary task switching, this article describes and tests the chain-retrieval model. This model postulates that voluntary task selection involves retrieval of task information from long-term memory, which is then used to guide task selection and task execution. The model assumes that the retrieved information consists of acquired sequences (or chains) of tasks, that selection may be biased towards chains containing more task repetitions and that bottom-up triggered repetitions may overrule the intended task. To test this model, four experiments are reported. In Studies 1 and 2, sequences of task choices and the corresponding transition sequences (task repetitions or switches) were analyzed with the help of dependency statistics. The free parameters of the chain-retrieval model were estimated on the observed task sequences and these estimates were used to predict autocorrelations of tasks and transitions. In Studies 3 and 4, sequences of hand choices and their transitions were analyzed similarly. In all studies, the chain-retrieval model yielded better fits and predictions than statistical models of event choice. In applications to voluntary task switching (Studies 1 and 2), all three parameters of the model were needed to account for the data. When no task switching was required (Studies 3 and 4), the chain-retrieval model could account for the data with one or two parameters clamped to a neutral value. Implications for our understanding of voluntary task selection and broader theoretical implications are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
A Sentiment Delivering Estimate Scheme Based on Trust Chain in Mobile Social Network
Meizi Li
2015-01-01
Full Text Available User sentiment analysis has become a flourishing frontier in data mining mobile social network platform since the mobile social network plays a significant role in users’ daily communication and sentiment interaction. This study studies the scheme of sentiment estimate by using the users’ trustworthy relationships for evaluating sentiment delivering. First, we address an overview of sentiment delivering estimate scheme and propose its related definitions, that is, trust chain among users, sentiment semantics, and sentiment ontology. Second, this study proposes the trust chain model and its evaluation method, which is composed of evaluation of atomic, serial, parallel, and combined trust chains. Then, we propose sentiment modeling method by presenting its modeling rules. Further, we propose the sentiment delivering estimate scheme from two aspects: explicit and implicit sentiment delivering estimate schemes, based on trust chain and sentiment modeling method. Finally, examinations and results are given to further explain effectiveness and feasibility of our scheme.
Maturity Models in Supply Chain Sustainability: A Systematic Literature Review
Elisabete Correia
2017-01-01
Full Text Available A systematic literature review of supply chain maturity models with sustainability concerns is presented. The objective is to give insights into methodological issues related to maturity models, namely the research objectives; the research methods used to develop, validate and test them; the scope; and the main characteristics associated with their design. The literature review was performed based on journal articles and conference papers from 2000 to 2015 using the SCOPUS, Emerald Insight, EBSCO and Web of Science databases. Most of the analysed papers have as main objective the development of maturity models and their validation. The case study is the methodology that is most widely used by researchers to develop and validate maturity models. From the sustainability perspective, the scope of the analysed maturity models is the Triple Bottom Line (TBL and environmental dimension, focusing on a specific process (eco-design and new product development and without a broad SC perspective. The dominant characteristics associated with the design of the maturity models are the maturity grids and a continuous representation. In addition, results do not allow identifying a trend for a specific number of maturity levels. The comprehensive review, analysis, and synthesis of the maturity model literature represent an important contribution to the organization of this research area, making possible to clarify some confusion that exists about concepts, approaches and components of maturity models in sustainability. Various aspects associated with the maturity models (i.e., research objectives, research methods, scope and characteristics of the design of models are explored to contribute to the evolution and significance of this multidimensional area.
Li Liao
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Mathematical models of inventory-distribution routing problem for two-echelon agriculture products distribution network are established, which are based on two management modes, franchise chain and regular chain, one-to-many, interval periodic order, demand depending on inventory, deteriorating treatment cost of agriculture products, start-up costs of vehicles and so forth. Then, a heuristic adaptive genetic algorithm is presented for the model of franchise chain. For the regular chain model, a two-layer genetic algorithm based on oddment modification is proposed, in which the upper layer is to determine the distribution period and quantity and the lower layer is to seek the optimal order cycle, quantity, distribution routes, and the rational oddment modification number for the distributor. By simulation experiments, the validity of the algorithms is demonstrated, and the two management modes are compared.
A Multiobjective Optimization Model in Automotive Supply Chain Networks
Abdolhossein Sadrnia
2013-01-01
Full Text Available In the new decade, green investment decisions are attracting more interest in design supply chains due to the hidden economic benefits and environmental legislative barriers. In this paper, a supply chain network design problem with both economic and environmental concerns is presented. Therefore, a multiobjective optimization model that captures the trade-off between the total logistics cost and CO2 emissions is proposed. With regard to the complexity of logistic networks, a new multiobjective swarm intelligence algorithm known as a multiobjective Gravitational search algorithm (MOGSA has been implemented for solving the proposed mathematical model. To evaluate the effectiveness of the model, a comprehensive set of numerical experiments is explained. The results obtained show that the proposed model can be applied as an effective tool in strategic planning for optimizing cost and CO2 emissions in an environmentally friendly automotive supply chain.
颜华保
2012-01-01
Mobile Internet companies play the role of resource integration in the industry chain.Based on the industry value chain,mobile Internet companies and operators,content providers and equipment manufacturers show a high degree of association between the cone,and then the paper analyses factors that affect their profitability from the user,the value chain positioning,products and services,cross-border competition and cooperation,and explores the mobile Internet business profit model from pay for content,advertising media,product distribution and affiliate marketing interests share.The author believes that the mobile Internet companies must integrate internal and external resources to achieve profitability,to work closely with the various aspects of the industry chain,in order to ultimately achieve customer value.%移动互联网企业在产业链上扮演着资源整合的角色。基于产业价值链,移动互联网企业与运营商、内容供应商及设备制造商之间呈关联度高的锥型关系,进而从用户价值、价值链定位、产品与服务、跨界竞合四方面分析影响其盈利的因素,并从内容付费、广告媒介、产品分销以及联盟营销与利益分享四方面探析移动互联网企业的盈利模式。笔者认为,移动互联网企业要实现盈利,必须整合企业内外资源,与产业链各环节紧密合作,才能最终实现用户价值。
Economic modelling of pork production-marketing chains
Ouden, den M.
1996-01-01
The research described in this thesis was focused on the development of economic simulation and optimization computer models to support decision making with respect to pork production- marketing chains. The models include three production stages: pig farrowing, pig fattening and pig slaughtering
Modeling cadmium in the feed chain and cattle organs
Fels-Klerx, van der H.J.; Romkens, P.F.A.M.; Franz, E.; Raamsdonk, van L.W.D.
2011-01-01
The objectives of this study were to estimate cadmium contamination levels in different scenarios related to soil characteristics and assumptions regarding cadmium accumulation in the animal tissues, using quantitative supply chain modeling. The model takes into account soil cadmium levels, soil pH,
Modelling of the radionuclide transport through terrestrial food chains
Hanusik, V.
1991-01-01
The paper presents a terrestrial food chains model for computing potential human intake of radionuclides released into the atmosphere during normal NPP operation. Attention is paid to the choice of model parameter values. Results obtained by our approach are compared to those applied in current methodology. (orig.) [de
SCOR based key success factors in cooking oil supply chain buyers perspective in Padang City
Zahara, Fatimah; Hadiguna, Rika Ampuh
2017-11-01
Supply chain of cooking oil is a network of companies from palm oil as raw material to retailers which work to create the value and deliver products into the end consumers. This paper is aimed to study key success factors based on consumer's perspective as the last stage in the supply chain. Consumers who are examined in this study are restaurants management or owners. Restaurant is the biggest consumption of cooking oil. The factors is studied based on Supply Chain Operation Reference (SCOR) version 10.0. Factors used are formulated based on the third-level metrics of SCOR Model. Factors are analyzed using factors analysis. This study found factors which become key success factors in managing supply chain of cooking oil encompass reliability, responsiveness and agility. Key success factors can be applied by governments as policy making and cooking oil companies as formulation of the distribution strategies.
CARBON-CHAIN SPECIES IN WARM-UP MODELS
Hassel, George E.; Harada, Nanase; Herbst, Eric
2011-01-01
In previous warm-up chemical models of the low-mass star-forming region L1527, we investigated the evolution of carbon-chain unsaturated hydrocarbon species when the envelope temperature is slightly elevated to T ≈ 30 K. These models demonstrated that enhanced abundances of such species can be explained by gas-phase ion-molecule chemistry following the partial sublimation of methane from grain surfaces. We also concluded that the abundances of hydrocarbon radicals such as the C n H family should be further enhanced as the temperatures increase to higher values, but this conclusion stood in contrast with the lack of unambiguous detection of these species toward hot core and corino sources. Meanwhile, observational surveys have identified C 2 H, C 4 H, CH 3 CCH, and CH 3 OH toward hot corinos (especially IRAS 16293–2422) as well as toward L1527, with lower abundances for the carbon-chain radicals and higher abundances for the other two species toward the hot corinos. In addition, the Herschel Space Telescope has detected the bare linear chain C 3 in 50 K material surrounding young high-mass stellar objects. To understand these new results, we revisit previous warm-up models with an augmented gas-grain network that incorporated reactions from a gas-phase network that was constructed for use with increased temperature up to 800 K. Some of the newly adopted reactions between carbon-chain species and abundant H 2 possess chemical activation energy barriers. The revised model results now better reproduce the observed abundances of unsaturated carbon chains under hot corino (100 K) conditions and make predictions for the abundances of bare carbon chains in the 50 K regions observed by the Herschel HIFI detector.
Bishop, M.; Ceperley, D.; Frisch, H.L.; Kalos, M.H.
1982-01-01
We report additional results on a simple model of polymers, namely the diffusion in concentrated polymer systems and the static properties of one long chain in a dilute melt of shorter chains. It is found, for the polymer sizes and time scales amenable to our computer calculations, that there is as yet no evidence for a ''reptation'' regime in a melt. There is some indication of reptation in the case of a single chain moving through fixed obstacles. No statistically significant effect of the change, from excluded volume behavior of the long chain to ideal behavior as the shorter chains grow, is observed
Markov Chain Models for Stochastic Behavior in Resonance Overlap Regions
McCarthy, Morgan; Quillen, Alice
2018-01-01
We aim to predict lifetimes of particles in chaotic zoneswhere resonances overlap. A continuous-time Markov chain model isconstructed using mean motion resonance libration timescales toestimate transition times between resonances. The model is applied todiffusion in the co-rotation region of a planet. For particles begunat low eccentricity, the model is effective for early diffusion, butnot at later time when particles experience close encounters to the planet.
Modeling cadmium in the feed chain and cattle organs
Fels-Klerx, van der, H.J.; Romkens, P.F.A.M.; Franz, E.; Raamsdonk, van, L.W.D.
2011-01-01
The objectives of this study were to estimate cadmium contamination levels in different scenarios related to soil characteristics and assumptions regarding cadmium accumulation in the animal tissues, using quantitative supply chain modeling. The model takes into account soil cadmium levels, soil pH, soil-to-plant transfer, animal consumption patterns, and transfer into animal organs (liver and kidneys). The model was applied to cattle up to the age of six years which were fed roughage (maize ...
An IT-enabled supply chain model: a simulation study
Cannella, Salvatore; Framinan, Jose M.; Barbosa-Póvoa, Ana
2014-11-01
During the last decades, supply chain collaboration practices and the underlying enabling technologies have evolved from the classical electronic data interchange (EDI) approach to a web-based and radio frequency identification (RFID)-enabled collaboration. In this field, most of the literature has focused on the study of optimal parameters for reducing the total cost of suppliers, by adopting operational research (OR) techniques. Herein we are interested in showing that the considered information technology (IT)-enabled structure is resilient, that is, it works well across a reasonably broad range of parameter settings. By adopting a methodological approach based on system dynamics, we study a multi-tier collaborative supply chain. Results show that the IT-enabled supply chain improves operational performance and customer service level. Nonetheless, benefits for geographically dispersed networks are of minor entity.
The governance of cloud based Supply Chain Collaborations
Chandra, Dissa Riandaso; van Hillegersberg, Jos
2015-01-01
Despite of the promising benefits of cloud computing in enabling efficient, sustainable and agile Supply Chain Collaborations (SCCs), this service does not eliminate governance challenges in SCCs. Cloud based SCCs may flounder without a proper understanding of how to govern inter-organizational
On the Metric-based Approximate Minimization of Markov Chains
Bacci, Giovanni; Bacci, Giorgio; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand
2018-01-01
In this paper we address the approximate minimization problem of Markov Chains (MCs) from a behavioral metric-based perspective. Specifically, given a finite MC and a positive integer k, we are looking for an MC with at most k states having minimal distance to the original. The metric considered...
On the Metric-Based Approximate Minimization of Markov Chains
Bacci, Giovanni; Bacci, Giorgio; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand
2017-01-01
We address the behavioral metric-based approximate minimization problem of Markov Chains (MCs), i.e., given a finite MC and a positive integer k, we are interested in finding a k-state MC of minimal distance to the original. By considering as metric the bisimilarity distance of Desharnais at al...
A lattice gas model on a tangled chain
Mejdani, R.
1993-04-01
We have used a model of a lattice gas defined on a tangled chain to study the enzyme kinetics by a modified transfer matrix method. By using a simple iterative algorithm we have obtained different kinds of saturation curves for different configurations of the tangled chain and different types of the additional interactions. In some special cases of configurations and interactions we have found the same equations for the saturation curves, which we have obtained before studying the lattice gas model with nearest neighbor interactions or the lattice gas model with alternate nearest neighbor interactions, using different techniques as the correlated walks' theory, the partition point technique or the transfer matrix model. This more general model and the new results could be useful for the experimental investigations. (author). 20 refs, 6 figs
MRP-based negotiation in collaborative supply chains
Bernard Grabot
2013-07-01
Full Text Available Although collaboration between parteners is now considered as a mean to increase the performance of the supply chains, most of them are still managed in a directive way through cascades of classical MRP/MRP2 systems, in which the constraints of the suppliers, especially the smallest ones, are poorly taken into account. We suggest in this article to assess the interest of the integration into collaborative processes of some practices based on MRP, identified after a study in aeronautical supply chains. Within these processes, classical parameters of MRP would be negotiated instead of being imposed by the large companies.
Markov chain model for demersal fish catch analysis in Indonesia
Firdaniza; Gusriani, N.
2018-03-01
As an archipelagic country, Indonesia has considerable potential fishery resources. One of the fish resources that has high economic value is demersal fish. Demersal fish is a fish with a habitat in the muddy seabed. Demersal fish scattered throughout the Indonesian seas. Demersal fish production in each Indonesia’s Fisheries Management Area (FMA) varies each year. In this paper we have discussed the Markov chain model for demersal fish yield analysis throughout all Indonesia’s Fisheries Management Area. Data of demersal fish catch in every FMA in 2005-2014 was obtained from Directorate of Capture Fisheries. From this data a transition probability matrix is determined by the number of transitions from the catch that lie below the median or above the median. The Markov chain model of demersal fish catch data was an ergodic Markov chain model, so that the limiting probability of the Markov chain model can be determined. The predictive value of demersal fishing yields was obtained by calculating the combination of limiting probability with average catch results below the median and above the median. The results showed that for 2018 and long-term demersal fishing results in most of FMA were below the median value.
Irreversible Markov chains in spin models: Topological excitations
Lei, Ze; Krauth, Werner
2018-01-01
We analyze the convergence of the irreversible event-chain Monte Carlo algorithm for continuous spin models in the presence of topological excitations. In the two-dimensional XY model, we show that the local nature of the Markov-chain dynamics leads to slow decay of vortex-antivortex correlations while spin waves decorrelate very quickly. Using a Fréchet description of the maximum vortex-antivortex distance, we quantify the contributions of topological excitations to the equilibrium correlations, and show that they vary from a dynamical critical exponent z∼ 2 at the critical temperature to z∼ 0 in the limit of zero temperature. We confirm the event-chain algorithm's fast relaxation (corresponding to z = 0) of spin waves in the harmonic approximation to the XY model. Mixing times (describing the approach towards equilibrium from the least favorable initial state) however remain much larger than equilibrium correlation times at low temperatures. We also describe the respective influence of topological monopole-antimonopole excitations and of spin waves on the event-chain dynamics in the three-dimensional Heisenberg model.
Model checking conditional CSL for continuous-time Markov chains
Gao, Yang; Xu, Ming; Zhan, Naijun
2013-01-01
In this paper, we consider the model-checking problem of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) with respect to conditional logic. To the end, we extend Continuous Stochastic Logic introduced in Aziz et al. (2000) [1] to Conditional Continuous Stochastic Logic (CCSL) by introducing a conditional...
Reservoir Modeling Combining Geostatistics with Markov Chain Monte Carlo Inversion
Zunino, Andrea; Lange, Katrine; Melnikova, Yulia
2014-01-01
We present a study on the inversion of seismic reflection data generated from a synthetic reservoir model. Our aim is to invert directly for rock facies and porosity of the target reservoir zone. We solve this inverse problem using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) method to handle the nonlinear...
Tactical supply chain planning models with inherent flexibility
Esmaeilikia, Masoud; Fahimnia, Behnam; Sarkis, Joeseph
2016-01-01
Supply chains (SCs) can be managed at many levels. The use of tactical SC planning models with multiple flexibility options can help manage the usual operations efficiently and effectively, whilst improve the SC resiliency in response to inherent environmental uncertainties. This paper defines ta...
Trade and compliance cost model in the international supply chain
Arsyida, Tuty; van Delft, Selma; Rukanova, B.D.; Tan, Y.
2017-01-01
Trade costs for international supply chain are huge, even in the absence of formal barriers. It is necessary for all the stakeholders, both private and public organizations, to support an effective and efficient border compliance process. Very little trade cost model research has been done at the
The dynamic complexity of a three species food chain model
Lv Songjuan; Zhao Min
2008-01-01
In this paper, a three-species food chain model is analytically investigated on theories of ecology and using numerical simulation. Bifurcation diagrams are obtained for biologically feasible parameters. The results show that the system exhibits rich complexity features such as stable, periodic and chaotic dynamics
A theoretical Markov chain model for evaluating correctional ...
In this paper a stochastic method is applied in the study of the long time effect of confinement in a correctional institution on the behaviour of a person with criminal tendencies. The approach used is Markov chain, which uses past history to predict the state of a system in the future. A model is developed for comparing the ...
Operations and support cost modeling using Markov chains
Unal, Resit
1989-01-01
Systems for future missions will be selected with life cycle costs (LCC) as a primary evaluation criterion. This reflects the current realization that only systems which are considered affordable will be built in the future due to the national budget constaints. Such an environment calls for innovative cost modeling techniques which address all of the phases a space system goes through during its life cycle, namely: design and development, fabrication, operations and support; and retirement. A significant portion of the LCC for reusable systems are generated during the operations and support phase (OS). Typically, OS costs can account for 60 to 80 percent of the total LCC. Clearly, OS costs are wholly determined or at least strongly influenced by decisions made during the design and development phases of the project. As a result OS costs need to be considered and estimated early in the conceptual phase. To be effective, an OS cost estimating model needs to account for actual instead of ideal processes by associating cost elements with probabilities. One approach that may be suitable for OS cost modeling is the use of the Markov Chain Process. Markov chains are an important method of probabilistic analysis for operations research analysts but they are rarely used for life cycle cost analysis. This research effort evaluates the use of Markov Chains in LCC analysis by developing OS cost model for a hypothetical reusable space transportation vehicle (HSTV) and suggests further uses of the Markov Chain process as a design-aid tool.
Matsypura, Dmytro
In this dissertation, I develop a new theoretical framework for the modeling, pricing analysis, and computation of solutions to electric power supply chains with power generators, suppliers, transmission service providers, and the inclusion of consumer demands. In particular, I advocate the application of finite-dimensional variational inequality theory, projected dynamical systems theory, game theory, network theory, and other tools that have been recently proposed for the modeling and analysis of supply chain networks (cf. Nagurney (2006)) to electric power markets. This dissertation contributes to the extant literature on the modeling, analysis, and solution of supply chain networks, including global supply chains, in general, and electric power supply chains, in particular, in the following ways. It develops a theoretical framework for modeling, pricing analysis, and computation of electric power flows/transactions in electric power systems using the rationale for supply chain analysis. The models developed include both static and dynamic ones. The dissertation also adds a new dimension to the methodology of the theory of projected dynamical systems by proving that, irrespective of the speeds of adjustment, the equilibrium of the system remains the same. Finally, I include alternative fuel suppliers, along with their behavior into the supply chain modeling and analysis framework. This dissertation has strong practical implications. In an era in which technology and globalization, coupled with increasing risk and uncertainty, complicate electricity demand and supply within and between nations, the successful management of electric power systems and pricing become increasingly pressing topics with relevance not only for economic prosperity but also national security. This dissertation addresses such related topics by providing models, pricing tools, and algorithms for decentralized electric power supply chains. This dissertation is based heavily on the following
Guangdong Wu
2013-09-01
Full Text Available Purpose: Within project-based supply chain inter-organizational cooperative innovation, the achievement of project value-adding reflects by factors such as project-based organizational effect level, the relationship between project cooperative innovation objectives etc. The purpose is to provide a reliable reference for the contractor reasonably allocate the effect level and resources between the knowledge input and innovation stage and realize the knowledge collaboration for project-based supply chain. Design/methodology/approach: Based on the assumption of equal cooperation between project-based organizations, from the view of maximizing project value-adding and the relationship of effect cost between knowledge input and innovation stage in consideration, the knowledge collaborative incentive model for project-based supply chain inter-organizational cooperative innovation was established, and solved through the first-order and second-order approach, then the digital simulation and example analysis were presented. Findings: The results show that, the project management enterprise resorted to adjust project knowledge collaboration incentive intensity and implemented knowledge input-innovation coordinative incentive strategy, not only could achieve project value-adding maximization, but also could realize net earnings Pareto improvement between project management enterprise and contractor. Research limitations/implications: To simplify the knowledge flow among project-based organizations, the knowledge flow in the model hypothesis is presented as knowledge input and knowledge innovation stage, thus it may affect the final analysis results. Originality/value: In construction project practice, knowledge is become more and more important to achieve project value-adding. The research can provide a theoretical guideline for the project-based organizations, such as the contractor, the owner, especially how to utilize their core knowledge.
A control model for object virtualization in supply chain management
Verdouw, C.N.; Beulens, A.J.M.; Reijers, H.A.; van der Vorst, J.G.A.J.
2015-01-01
Due to the emergence of the Internet of Things, supply chain control can increasingly be based on virtual objects instead of on the direct observation of physical objects. Object virtualization allows the decoupling of control activities from the handling and observing of physical products and
An automotive supply chain model for a demand-driven environment
Intaher M. Ambe
2011-11-01
Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the development of a supply chain model for the automotive industry that would respond to changing consumer demand. Now more than ever, businesses need to improve the efficiency of their supply chains in order to maintain a competitive advantage. The principles of lean manufacturing and just-intime (JIT inventory control that were renowned for helping companies like Toyota, Dell and Walmart to rise to the top of their respective industries are no longer adequate. Leading companies are applying new technologies and sophisticated analytics to make their supply chains more responsive to customer demand. This challenge is driven by fierce competition, fluctuating market demand and rising customer requirements that have led to customers becoming more demanding with increased preferences. The article is based on theoretical reviews and suggests guidelines for the implementation of an automotive supply chain model for a demand-driven environment.
Control Theory Concepts Applied to Retail Supply Chain: A System Dynamics Modeling Environment Study
Balaji Janamanchi
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Control theory concepts have been long used to successfully manage and optimize complex systems. Using system dynamics (SD modeling methodology, which is continuous deterministic simulation modeling methodology, we apply control theory concepts to develop a suitable performance functional (or objective function that optimizes the performance of a retail supply chain. The focus is to develop insights for inventory management to prevent stock-outs and unfilled orders and to fill customer orders at the lowest possible cost to supply chain partners under different scenarios, in a two-player supplier-retailer supply chain. Moderate levels of inventory, defining appropriate performance functional, appear to be crucial in choosing the right policies for managing retail supply chain systems. The study also demonstrated how multiple objectives can be combined in a single performance functional (or objective function by carefully assigning suitable weights to the components of objectives based on their priority and the existence of possible trade off opportunities.
Profit Analysis and Supply Chain Planning Model for Closed-Loop Supply Chain in Fashion Industry
Jisoo Oh
2014-12-01
Full Text Available In recent decades, due to market growth and use of synthetic fiber, the fashion industry faces a rapid increase of CO2 emission throughout the production cycle and raises environmental issues in recovery processing. This study proposes a closed-loop supply chain (CLSC structure in fashion industry and develops its planning model as multi-objective mixed integer linear programming to find an optimal trade-off between CLSC profit and CO2 emission. The planning model is associated with the profit analysis of each member in CLSC to find the optimal price of products on CLSC network. The model determines optimal production, transportation, and inventory quantities on CLSC network. The proposed models are validated using numerical experiments and sensitivity analyses, and from the results some managerial insights are addressed.
Supply chain management models, applications, and research directions
Pardalos, Panos; Romeijn, H
2005-01-01
This work brings together some of the most up to date research in the application of operations research and mathematical modeling te- niques to problems arising in supply chain management and e-Commerce. While research in the broad area of supply chain management enc- passes a wide range of topics and methodologies, we believe this book provides a good snapshot of current quantitative modeling approaches, issues, and trends within the field. Each chapter is a self-contained study of a timely and relevant research problem in supply chain mana- ment. The individual works place a heavy emphasis on the application of modeling techniques to real world management problems. In many instances, the actual results from applying these techniques in practice are highlighted. In addition, each chapter provides important mana- rial insights that apply to general supply chain management practice. The book is divided into three parts. The first part contains ch- ters that address the new and rapidly growing role of the inte...
Labour Quality Model for Organic Farming Food Chains
Gassner, B.; Freyer, B.; Leitner, H.
2008-01-01
The debate on labour quality in science is controversial as well as in the organic agriculture community. Therefore, we reviewed literature on different labour quality models and definitions, and had key informant interviews on labour quality issues with stakeholders in a regional oriented organic agriculture bread food chain. We developed a labour quality model with nine quality categories and discussed linkages to labour satisfaction, ethical values and IFOAM principles.
Stewart Don
2008-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Based upon defining a common reference point, current real-time quantitative PCR technologies compare relative differences in amplification profile position. As such, absolute quantification requires construction of target-specific standard curves that are highly resource intensive and prone to introducing quantitative errors. Sigmoidal modeling using nonlinear regression has previously demonstrated that absolute quantification can be accomplished without standard curves; however, quantitative errors caused by distortions within the plateau phase have impeded effective implementation of this alternative approach. Results Recognition that amplification rate is linearly correlated to amplicon quantity led to the derivation of two sigmoid functions that allow target quantification via linear regression analysis. In addition to circumventing quantitative errors produced by plateau distortions, this approach allows the amplification efficiency within individual amplification reactions to be determined. Absolute quantification is accomplished by first converting individual fluorescence readings into target quantity expressed in fluorescence units, followed by conversion into the number of target molecules via optical calibration. Founded upon expressing reaction fluorescence in relation to amplicon DNA mass, a seminal element of this study was to implement optical calibration using lambda gDNA as a universal quantitative standard. Not only does this eliminate the need to prepare target-specific quantitative standards, it relegates establishment of quantitative scale to a single, highly defined entity. The quantitative competency of this approach was assessed by exploiting "limiting dilution assay" for absolute quantification, which provided an independent gold standard from which to verify quantitative accuracy. This yielded substantive corroborating evidence that absolute accuracies of ± 25% can be routinely achieved. Comparison
Critical evaluation of paradigms for modelling integrated supply chains
Van Dam, K.H.; Adhitya, A.; Srinivasan, R.; Lukszo, Z.
2009-01-01
Contemporary problems in process systems engineering often require model-based decision support tool. Among the various modelling paradigms, equation-based models and agent-based models are widely used to develop dynamic models of systems. Which is the most appropriate modelling paradigm for a
Deformations of N=4 SYM and integrable spin chain models
Berenstein, David; Cherkis, Sergey A.
2004-01-01
Beginning with the planar limit of N=4 SYM theory, we study planar diagrams for field theory deformations of N=4 which are marginal at the free field theory level. We show that the requirement of integrability of the full one-loop dilatation operator in the scalar sector, places very strong constraints on the field theory, so that the only soluble models correspond essentially to orbifolds of N=4 SYM. For these, the associated spin chain model gets twisted boundary conditions that depend on the length of the chain, but which are still integrable. We also show that theories with integrable subsectors appear quite generically, and it is possible to engineer integrable subsectors to have some specific symmetry, however these do not generally lead to full integrability. We also try to construct a theory whose spin chain has quantum group symmetry SOq(6) as a deformation of the SO(6) R-symmetry structure of N=4 SYM. We show that it is not possible to obtain a spin chain with that symmetry from deformations of the scalar potential of N=4 SYM.We also show that the natural context for these questions can be better phrased in terms of multi-matrix quantum mechanics rather than in four-dimensional field theories
Quantitative Methods in Supply Chain Management Models and Algorithms
Christou, Ioannis T
2012-01-01
Quantitative Methods in Supply Chain Management presents some of the most important methods and tools available for modeling and solving problems arising in the context of supply chain management. In the context of this book, “solving problems” usually means designing efficient algorithms for obtaining high-quality solutions. The first chapter is an extensive optimization review covering continuous unconstrained and constrained linear and nonlinear optimization algorithms, as well as dynamic programming and discrete optimization exact methods and heuristics. The second chapter presents time-series forecasting methods together with prediction market techniques for demand forecasting of new products and services. The third chapter details models and algorithms for planning and scheduling with an emphasis on production planning and personnel scheduling. The fourth chapter presents deterministic and stochastic models for inventory control with a detailed analysis on periodic review systems and algorithmic dev...
Modeling nutrient flows in the food chain of China.
Ma, L; Ma, W Q; Velthof, G L; Wang, F H; Qin, W; Zhang, F S; Oenema, O
2010-01-01
Increasing nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) inputs have greatly contributed to the increasing food production in China during the last decades, but have also increased N and P losses to the environment. The pathways and magnitude of these losses are not well quantified. Here, we report on N and P use efficiencies and losses at a national scale in 2005, using the model NUFER (NUtrient flows in Food chains, Environment and Resources use). Total amount of "new" N imported to the food chain was 48.8 Tg in 2005. Only 4.4.Tg reached households as food. Average N use efficiencies in crop production, animal production, and the whole food chain were 26, 11, and 9%, respectively. Most of the imported N was lost to the environment, that is, 23 Tg N to atmosphere, as ammonia (57%), nitrous oxide (2%), dinitrogen (33%), and nitrogen oxides (8%), and 20 Tg to waters. The total P input into the food chain was 7.8 Tg. The average P use efficiencies in crop production, animal production, and the whole food chain were 36, 5, and 7%, respectively. This is the first comprehensive overview of N and P balances, losses, and use efficiencies of the food chain in China. It shows that the N and P costs of food are high (for N 11 kg kg(-1), for P 13 kg kg(-1)). Key measures for lowering the N and P costs of food production are (i) increasing crop and animal production, (ii) balanced fertilization, and (iii) improved manure management.
Exploratory Analysis of Supply Chains in the Defense Industrial Base
2012-04-01
hp) 2- and 4- stroke RC/modeler engines are O.S. Engine (Japan), Thunder Tiger (Taiwan), and Saito (Japan). E. Global Nature of the Supply Chain...Mexico). • The 115-HP 4- stroke Rotax 914 class engine (Austria/Germany) found in the Predator (MQ-1B) is also found in many other systems, including...Equipment 43 Pumps and Compressors 44 Furnace/Steam Plant/Drying Equipment, Nuclear Reactors 45 Plumbing, Heating , and Sanitation Equipment 49
Reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode load using Markov Chain Model
Nikabdullah, N.; Singh, S. S. K.; Alebrahim, R.; Azizi, M. A.; K, Elwaleed A.; Noorani, M. S. M.
2014-01-01
The aim of this paper is to present the reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode loading by using a simple two state Markov Chain Model for an automotive crankshaft. The reliability analysis and prediction for any automotive component or structure is important for analyzing and measuring the failure to increase the design life, eliminate or reduce the likelihood of failures and safety risk. The mechanical failures of the crankshaft are due of high bending and torsion stress concentration from high cycle and low rotating bending and torsional stress. The Markov Chain was used to model the two states based on the probability of failure due to bending and torsion stress. In most investigations it revealed that bending stress is much serve than torsional stress, therefore the probability criteria for the bending state would be higher compared to the torsion state. A statistical comparison between the developed Markov Chain Model and field data was done to observe the percentage of error. The reliability analysis and prediction was derived and illustrated from the Markov Chain Model were shown in the Weibull probability and cumulative distribution function, hazard rate and reliability curve and the bathtub curve. It can be concluded that Markov Chain Model has the ability to generate near similar data with minimal percentage of error and for a practical application; the proposed model provides a good accuracy in determining the reliability for the crankshaft under mixed mode loading
朱骄阳; 冯东梅; 王升; 张静
2016-01-01
Based on the full understanding of the situation and problems faced by the construction industry in China, this paper takes China Construction Third Bureau First Engineering Company as the research object, analyzes that the shortcomings of the current supply chain management mode based on the project is the information management not up to standard, and the current project management model can not effectively solve the problem of non cooperation between the parties involved in a one-time game. In order to solve the above problems, the supply chain management thought of manufacturing industry and the Partnering mode maturely applied in foreign countries have been combined, and the new idea of supply chain management of construction enterprises under Partnering mode is put forward, and the organization structure and operation process of the project implementation under the mode and method for establishing partnership are designed for the First Company, two major systems of dispute handling and performance evaluation based on Partnering mode are constructed. Through the establishment of information sharing system management platform, the information sharing and communication cooperation among all the parties in the Partnering supply chain are realized, and the guarantee for the smooth implementation of the supply chain management of Partnering construction enterprises are provided.%在充分认识我国建筑业面临的形势和问题的基础上，本文以中建三局一公司为研究对象，分析其基于项目的现行供应链管理模式的弊端主要在于信息化协同管理达不到标准，当前项目管理模式不能有效解决参与方之间一次性博弈导致的不合作。为解决上述问题，将制造业的供应链管理思想和目前国外应用已非常成熟的Partnering模式相结合，提出了Partnering模式下建筑企业供应链管理的新思路，并为一公司设计了该模式下项目实施时的组织结构与运作流
Study on Green Supply Chain Management Based on Circular Economy
Ying, Jiang; Li-jun, Zhou
The article starts with circular economy and the connotation of green supply chain, then analyzes the difference between green supply chain and traditional supply chain and elaborates the content of green supply chain management. On that basis, the approach to implement green supply chain management in china shall be put forward.
A Game-Chain-Based Approach for Decision Making
An, Tingyu; Watanabe, tsunami
2009-01-01
Nowadays, with the rapid development of information society, decision-making problems become more and more complicated especially in large scale systems such as infrastructure, environmental and industrial fields, which are usually accompanied by psychological competition between involved parties in a complicated, uncertain and dynamic situation. From a holistic perspective of system, a specific decision-making method which is described as game-chain-based decision making has been proposed in...
Melintescu, A.; Galeriu, D.; Marica, A.
2003-01-01
The European Commission Project RODOS implements a coherent methodology for a Real-time On-line Decision Support System for Nuclear Emergency across Europe. Within this system there is a special module to model the transfer of tritiated water from releases to terrestrial foods. In order to model the transfer of tritiated water from air to various plants, the conversion to organically bound tritium, and the migration to edible parts of the plant, both the mean dynamics of leaf area index and a physiological description of canopy photosynthesis are required. The WOFOST crop growth model has been selected as a basis for deriving tritium transfer dynamics to plants. Its ability to reproduce site-specific biomass growth of various plants (not only from Europe) is demonstrated in this paper, as well as its compatibility to other photosynthesis models. We have tested that this model can simulate limited fertilization situations via the adaptation of two important parameters. After adaptation of model parameters to site-specific plant growth data, multi-annual mean dynamics can be obtained using meteorological data for subsequent years. (authors)
Fission-product burnup chain model for research reactor application
Kim, Jung Do; Gil, Choong Sup; Lee, Jong Tai [Korea Atomic Energy Research Inst., Daeduk (Republic of Korea)
1990-12-01
A new fission-product burnup chain model was developed for use in research reactor analysis capable of predicting the burnup-dependent reactivity with high precision over a wide range of burnup. The new model consists of 63 nuclides treated explicitly and one fissile-independent pseudo-element. The effective absorption cross sections for the preudo-element and the preudo-element yield of actinide nuclides were evaluated in the this report. The model is capable of predicting the high burnup behavior of low-enriched uranium-fueled research reactors.(Author).
Mechanism of chain formation in nanofluid based MR fluids
Patel, Rajesh
2011-01-01
Mechanism of structure formation in bidispersed colloids is important for its physical and optical properties. It is microscopically observed that the mechanism of chain formation in magnetic nanofluid based magnetorheological (MR) fluid is quite different from that in the conventional MR fluid. Under the application of magnetic field the magnetic nanoparticles are filled inside the structural microcavities formed due to the association of large magnetic particles, and some of the magnetic nanoparticles are attached at the end of the chains formed by the large particles. The dipolar energy of the large particles in a magnetic nanofluid matrix becomes effective magnetic permeability (μ eff ) times smaller than that of the neutral medium. Inclusion of magnetic nanoparticles (∼10 nm) with large magnetic particles (∼3-5 μm) restricts the aggregation of large particles, which causes the field induced phase separation in MR fluids. Hence, nanofluid based MR fluids are more stable than conventional MR fluids, which subsequently increase their application potentiality. - Research highlights: → In bidispersed magnetic colloids nanoparticles are attached at the end of the chains formed by the large particles. → Inclusion of magnetic nanoparticles (∼10 nm) with large magnetic particles (∼3-5 m) restricts the aggregation of large particles. → Nanofluid based MR fluids are more stable than conventional MR fluids.
A coordination theoretic model for three level supply chains using ...
city in fashion industry (Lee & Rhee 2007); two period contract model in case of decentralized assembly system (Zou et al 2008); .... p: Price of product qr : Optimal quantity of retailer Q. ∗ sc: Optimal order quantity of supply chain. S(q): Expected sales at the end of period which can be defined as: S(q) = q(1 − F(q)) −. ∫ q. 0.
Pharmacologic modeling of primary mitochondrial respiratory chain dysfunction in zebrafish.
Byrnes, James; Ganetzky, Rebecca; Lightfoot, Richard; Tzeng, Michael; Nakamaru-Ogiso, Eiko; Seiler, Christoph; Falk, Marni J
2017-07-18
Mitochondrial respiratory chain (RC) disease is a heterogeneous and highly morbid group of energy deficiency disorders for which no proven effective therapies exist. Robust vertebrate animal models of primary RC dysfunction are needed to explore the effects of variation in RC disease subtypes, tissue-specific manifestations, and major pathogenic factors contributing to each disorder, as well as their pre-clinical response to therapeutic candidates. We have developed a series of zebrafish (Danio rerio) models that inhibit, to variable degrees, distinct aspects of RC function, and enable quantification of animal development, survival, behaviors, and organ-level treatment effects as well as effects on mitochondrial biochemistry and physiology. Here, we characterize four pharmacologic inhibitor models of mitochondrial RC dysfunction in early larval zebrafish, including rotenone (complex I inhibitor), azide (complex IV inhibitor), oligomycin (complex V inhibitor), and chloramphenicol (mitochondrial translation inhibitor that leads to multiple RC complex dysfunction). A range of concentrations and exposure times of each RC inhibitor were systematically evaluated on early larval development, animal survival, integrated behaviors (touch and startle responses), organ physiology (brain death, neurologic tone, heart rate), and fluorescence-based analyses of mitochondrial physiology in zebrafish skeletal muscle. Pharmacologic RC inhibitor effects were validated by spectrophotometric analysis of Complex I, II and IV enzyme activities, or relative quantitation of ATP levels in larvae. Outcomes were prioritized that utilize in vivo animal imaging and quantitative behavioral assessments, as may optimally inform the translational potential of pre-clinical drug screens for future clinical study in human mitochondrial disease subjects. The RC complex inhibitors each delayed early embryo development, with short-term exposures of these three agents or chloramphenicol from 5 to 7 days
Negotiation-based Order Lot-Sizing Approach for Two-tier Supply Chain
Chao, Yuan; Lin, Hao Wen; Chen, Xili; Murata, Tomohiro
This paper focuses on a negotiation based collaborative planning process for the determination of order lot-size over multi-period planning, and confined to a two-tier supply chain scenario. The aim is to study how negotiation based planning processes would be used to refine locally preferred ordering patterns, which would consequently affect the overall performance of the supply chain in terms of costs and service level. Minimal information exchanges in the form of mathematical models are suggested to represent the local preferences and used to support the negotiation processes.
Supply chain design under uncertainty for advanced biofuel production based on bio-oil gasification
Li, Qi; Hu, Guiping
2014-01-01
An advanced biofuels supply chain is proposed to reduce biomass transportation costs and take advantage of the economics of scale for a gasification facility. In this supply chain, biomass is converted to bio-oil at widely distributed small-scale fast pyrolysis plants, and after bio-oil gasification, the syngas is upgraded to transportation fuels at a centralized biorefinery. A two-stage stochastic programming is formulated to maximize biofuel producers' annual profit considering uncertainties in the supply chain for this pathway. The first stage makes the capital investment decisions including the locations and capacities of the decentralized fast pyrolysis plants as well as the centralized biorefinery, while the second stage determines the biomass and biofuels flows. A case study based on Iowa in the U.S. illustrates that it is economically feasible to meet desired demand using corn stover as the biomass feedstock. The results show that the locations of fast pyrolysis plants are sensitive to uncertainties while the capacity levels are insensitive. The stochastic model outperforms the deterministic model in the stochastic environment, especially when there is insufficient biomass. Also, farmers' participation can have a significant impact on the profitability and robustness of this supply chain. - Highlights: • Decentralized supply chain design for advanced biofuel production is considered. • A two-stage stochastic programming is formulated to consider uncertainties. • Farmers' participation has a significant impact on the biofuel supply chain design
Predicting the Performance of Chain Saw Machines Based on Shore Scleroscope Hardness
Tumac, Deniz
2014-03-01
Shore hardness has been used to estimate several physical and mechanical properties of rocks over the last few decades. However, the number of researches correlating Shore hardness with rock cutting performance is quite limited. Also, rather limited researches have been carried out on predicting the performance of chain saw machines. This study differs from the previous investigations in the way that Shore hardness values (SH1, SH2, and deformation coefficient) are used to determine the field performance of chain saw machines. The measured Shore hardness values are correlated with the physical and mechanical properties of natural stone samples, cutting parameters (normal force, cutting force, and specific energy) obtained from linear cutting tests in unrelieved cutting mode, and areal net cutting rate of chain saw machines. Two empirical models developed previously are improved for the prediction of the areal net cutting rate of chain saw machines. The first model is based on a revised chain saw penetration index, which uses SH1, machine weight, and useful arm cutting depth as predictors. The second model is based on the power consumed for only cutting the stone, arm thickness, and specific energy as a function of the deformation coefficient. While cutting force has a strong relationship with Shore hardness values, the normal force has a weak or moderate correlation. Uniaxial compressive strength, Cerchar abrasivity index, and density can also be predicted by Shore hardness values.
Mohammad Asif Salam
2017-11-01
Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to analyze different types of supply chain uncertainties and suggest strategies to deal with unexpected contingencies to deliver superior operational performance (OP using symmetrical and asymmetrical modeling approaches. The data were collected through a survey given to 146 supply chain managers within the fast moving consumer goods industry in Thailand. Symmetrical modeling is applied via partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM in order to assess the theoretical relationships among the latent variables, while asymmetrical modeling is applied via fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA to emphasize their combinatory causal relation. The empirical results support the theory by highlighting the mediating effect of supply chain strategy (SCS in the relation between supply chain uncertainty (SCU and firms’ OP and, hence, deliver business sustainability for the firms, demonstrating that the choice of SCS should not be an “either-or” decision. This research contributes by providing an illustration of a PLS-SEM and fsQCA based estimation for the rapidly emerging field of sustainable supply chain management. This study provides empirical support for resource dependence theory (RDT in explaining the relation between SCU and SCS, which leads to sustainable OP. From a methodological standpoint, this study also illustrates predictive validation testing of models using holdout samples and testing for causal asymmetry.
Effective food supply chains : generating, modelling and evaluating supply chain scenarios
Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.
2000-01-01
The overall objectives of the research described in this thesis were to obtain insight into the applicability of the concept Supply Chain Management (SCM) in food supply chains (SCs) from a logistical point of view, and to
Cultivating a disease management partnership: a value-chain model.
Murray, Carolyn F; Monroe, Wendy; Stalder, Sharon A
2003-01-01
Disease management (DM) is one of the health care industry's more innovative value-chain models, whereby multiple relationships are created to bring complex and time-sensitive services to market. The very nature of comprehensive, seamless DM provided through an outsourced arrangement necessitates a level of cooperation, trust, and synergy that may be lacking from more traditional vendor-customer relationships. This discussion highlights the experience of one health plan and its vendor partner and their approach to the development and delivery of an outsourced heart failure (HF) DM program. The program design and rollout are discussed within principles adapted from the theoretical framework of a value-chain model. Within the value-chain model, added value is created by the convergence and synergistic integration of the partners' discrete strengths. Although each partner brings unique attributes to the relationship, those attributes are significantly enhanced by the value-chain model, thus allowing each party to bring the added value of the relationship to their respective customers. This partnership increases innovation, leverages critical capabilities, and improves market responsiveness. Implementing a comprehensive, outsourced DM program is no small task. DM programs incorporate a broad array of services affecting nearly every department in a health plan's organization. When true seamless integration between multiple organizations with multiple stakeholders is the objective, implementation and ongoing operations can become even more complex. To effectively address the complexities presented by an HF DM program, the parties in this case moved beyond a typical purchaser-vendor relationship to one that is more closely akin to a strategic partnership. This discussion highlights the development of this partnership from the perspective of both organizations, as revealed through contracting and implementation activities. It is intended to provide insight into the program
Balancing gas supply and demand with a sustainable gas supply chain : a study based on field data
Bekkering, Jan; Broekhuis, A. A.; van Gemert, Wim; Hengeveld, Evert Jan
The possibilities of balancing gas supply and demand with a green gas supply chain were analyzed. The considered supply chain is based on co-digestion of cow manure and maize, the produced biogas is upgraded to (Dutch) natural gas standards. The applicability of modeling yearly gas demand data in a
Balancing gas supply and demand with a sustainable gas supply chain : A study based on field data
Bekkering, J.; Broekhuis, A. A.; van Gemert, W. J. T.; Hengeveld, E. J.
2013-01-01
The possibilities of balancing gas supply and demand with a green gas supply chain were analyzed. The considered supply chain is based on co-digestion of cow manure and maize, the produced biogas is upgraded to (Dutch) natural gas standards. The applicability of modeling yearly gas demand data in a
Network design and operational modelling for construction green supply chain management
Pengfei Zhou Dong Chen
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Based on studying organizational structure of Construction Green Supply Chain Management (CGSCM, a mathematical programming model of CGSCM was proposed. The model aimed to maximize the aggregate profits of normalized construction logistics, the reverse logistics and the environmental performance. Numerical experiments show that the proposed approach can improve the aggregate profit effectively. In addition, return ratio, subsidies from governmental organizations, and environmental performance were analyzed for CGSCM performance. Herein, the proper return, subsidy and control strategy could optimize construction green supply chain.
Coordination mechanism of SaaS service supply chain: Based on compensation contracts
Yanli Guo
2013-09-01
Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to build new contracts theories of SaaS service supply chain. Software as a Service (SaaS has become a hot topic in this industry . Compared with traditional manufacturing supply chain and general service supply chain, the new IT service supply chain which based on SaaS has characteristics of both service and IT. And SaaS is completely different from traditional software package model. Therefore the classic contracts, which be widely used in traditional manufacturing supply chain, can’t be directly applied in SaaS service supply chain. The necessary way of IT services developing is to study the SaaS service supply chain combining with characteristics of SaaS. Therefore, It focuses on the coordination of SaaS service supply chain. Design/methodology/approach: It tries to answer the following question: how do the ISV motivate SaaS operators to improve the service level through effective contracts mechanism under conditions of asymmetric information. In order to answer these questions, this paper does some researches including: Under the conditions of information asymmetry, supposing the service level (is related to the degree of effort of SaaS operator was private information, we construct model of compensation contract, i.e., to motivate SaaS operator to improve service level through transfer payments of compensation price. Findings and Originality/value: The study finds out that when ISV get to “positive feedback”, instead of the traditional market equilibrium, compensation contract (linear can coordinate satisfactorily the SaaS service supply chain. In the point of “positive feedback”, the marginal revenue equals the marginal cost, but it is not the equilibrium of ISV’profit-maximization. Research limitations/implications: There are some limitations in this research. In the linear compensation contracts, the compensation price is fixed value. If in the contract, we can create a change value
Khater, Antoine; Szczesniak, Dominik
2011-01-01
An analytical model is presented for the electronic conductance in a one dimensional atomic chain across an isolated defect. The model system consists of two semi infinite lead atomic chains with the defect atom making the junction between the two leads. The calculation is based on a linear combination of atomic orbitals in the tight-binding approximation, with a single atomic one s-like orbital chosen in the present case. The matching method is used to derive analytical expressions for the scattering cross sections for the reflection and transmission processes across the defect, in the Landauer-Buttiker representation. These analytical results verify the known limits for an infinite atomic chain with no defects. The model can be applied numerically for one dimensional atomic systems supported by appropriate templates. It is also of interest since it would help establish efficient procedures for ensemble averages over a field of impurity configurations in real physical systems.
Self-testing protocols based on the chained Bell inequalities
Šupić, I; Augusiak, R; Salavrakos, A; Acín, A
2016-01-01
Self-testing is a device-independent technique based on non-local correlations whose aim is to certify the effective uniqueness of the quantum state and measurements needed to produce these correlations. It is known that the maximal violation of some Bell inequalities suffices for this purpose. However, most of the existing self-testing protocols for two devices exploit the well-known Clauser–Horne–Shimony–Holt Bell inequality or modifications of it, and always with two measurements per party. Here, we generalize the previous results by demonstrating that one can construct self-testing protocols based on the chained Bell inequalities, defined for two devices implementing an arbitrary number of two-output measurements. On the one hand, this proves that the quantum state and measurements leading to the maximal violation of the chained Bell inequality are unique. On the other hand, in the limit of a large number of measurements, our approach allows one to self-test the entire plane of measurements spanned by the Pauli matrices X and Z. Our results also imply that the chained Bell inequalities can be used to certify two bits of perfect randomness. (paper)
Cluster chain based energy efficient routing protocol for moblie WSN
WU Ziyu
2016-04-01
Full Text Available With the ubiquitous smart devices acting as mobile sensor nodes in the wireless sensor networks(WSNs to sense and transmit physical information,routing protocols should be designed to accommodate the mobility issues,in addition to conventional considerations on energy efficiency.However,due to frequent topology change,traditional routing schemes cannot perform well.Moreover,existence of mobile nodes poses new challenges on energy dissipation and packet loss.In this paper,a novel routing scheme called cluster chain based routing protocol(CCBRP is proposed,which employs a combination of cluster and chain structure to accomplish data collection and transmission and thereafter selects qualified cluster heads as chain leaders to transmit data to the sink.Furthermore,node mobility is handled based on periodical membership update of mobile nodes.Simulation results demonstrate that CCBRP has a good performance in terms of network lifetime and packet delivery,also strikes a better balance between successful packet reception and energy consumption.
Luca Olivieri
2016-10-01
Full Text Available In this work, we studied two copolymers formed by segments of a rubbery polyether (PPO or PEO and of a glassy polyimide (BPDA-ODA or BKDA-ODA suitable for gas separation and CO2 capture. Firstly, we assessed the absorption of water vapor in the materials, as a function of relative humidity (R.H., finding that the humidity uptake of the copolymers lies between that of the corresponding pure homopolymers values. Furthermore, we studied the effect of humidity on CO2 and N2 permeability, as well as on CO2/N2 selectivity, up to R.H. of 75%. The permeability decreases with increasing humidity, while the ideal selectivity remains approximately constant in the entire range of water activity investigated. The humidity-induced decrease of permeability in the copolymers is much smaller than the one observed in polyimides such as Matrimid® confirming the positive effect of the polyether phase on the membrane performance.Finally, we modeled the humidity-induced decrease of gas solubility, diffusivity and, consequently, permeability, using a suitable approach that considers the free volume theory for diffusion and LF model for solubility. Such model allows estimating the extent of competition that the gases undergo with water during sorption in the membranes, as a function of the relative humidity, as well as the expected reduction of free volume by means of water molecules occupation and consequent reduction of diffusivity. Keywords: CO2 capture, Humid gas permeation, Transport properties in polymeric membranes, Water vapor sorption, Modeling
Accumulation of long-chain bases in yeast promotes their conversion to a long-chain base vinyl ether
Martínez-Montañés, Fernando; Lone, Museer A.; Hsu, Fong-Fu; Schneiter3, Roger
2017-01-01
Long-chain bases (LCBs) are the precursors to ceramide and sphingolipids in eukaryotic cells. They are formed by the action of serine palmitoyl-CoA transferase (SPT), a complex of integral membrane proteins located in the endoplasmic reticulum. SPT activity is negatively regulated by Orm proteins to prevent the toxic overaccumulation of LCBs. Here we show that overaccumulation of LCBs in yeast results in their conversion to a hitherto undescribed LCB derivative, an LCB vinyl ether. The ...
Simulating reservoir lithologies by an actively conditioned Markov chain model
Feng, Runhai; Luthi, Stefan M.; Gisolf, Dries
2018-06-01
The coupled Markov chain model can be used to simulate reservoir lithologies between wells, by conditioning them on the observed data in the cored wells. However, with this method, only the state at the same depth as the current cell is going to be used for conditioning, which may be a problem if the geological layers are dipping. This will cause the simulated lithological layers to be broken or to become discontinuous across the reservoir. In order to address this problem, an actively conditioned process is proposed here, in which a tolerance angle is predefined. The states contained in the region constrained by the tolerance angle will be employed for conditioning in the horizontal chain first, after which a coupling concept with the vertical chain is implemented. In order to use the same horizontal transition matrix for different future states, the tolerance angle has to be small. This allows the method to work in reservoirs without complex structures caused by depositional processes or tectonic deformations. Directional artefacts in the modeling process are avoided through a careful choice of the simulation path. The tolerance angle and dipping direction of the strata can be obtained from a correlation between wells, or from seismic data, which are available in most hydrocarbon reservoirs, either by interpretation or by inversion that can also assist the construction of a horizontal probability matrix.
A Multistep Extending Truncation Method towards Model Construction of Infinite-State Markov Chains
Kemin Wang
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The model checking of Infinite-State Continuous Time Markov Chains will inevitably encounter the state explosion problem when constructing the CTMCs model; our method is to get a truncated model of the infinite one; to get a sufficient truncated model to meet the model checking of Continuous Stochastic Logic based system properties, we propose a multistep extending advanced truncation method towards model construction of CTMCs and implement it in the INFAMY model checker; the experiment results show that our method is effective.
Chemical event chain model of coupled genetic oscillators.
Jörg, David J; Morelli, Luis G; Jülicher, Frank
2018-03-01
We introduce a stochastic model of coupled genetic oscillators in which chains of chemical events involved in gene regulation and expression are represented as sequences of Poisson processes. We characterize steady states by their frequency, their quality factor, and their synchrony by the oscillator cross correlation. The steady state is determined by coupling and exhibits stochastic transitions between different modes. The interplay of stochasticity and nonlinearity leads to isolated regions in parameter space in which the coupled system works best as a biological pacemaker. Key features of the stochastic oscillations can be captured by an effective model for phase oscillators that are coupled by signals with distributed delays.
Chemical event chain model of coupled genetic oscillators
Jörg, David J.; Morelli, Luis G.; Jülicher, Frank
2018-03-01
We introduce a stochastic model of coupled genetic oscillators in which chains of chemical events involved in gene regulation and expression are represented as sequences of Poisson processes. We characterize steady states by their frequency, their quality factor, and their synchrony by the oscillator cross correlation. The steady state is determined by coupling and exhibits stochastic transitions between different modes. The interplay of stochasticity and nonlinearity leads to isolated regions in parameter space in which the coupled system works best as a biological pacemaker. Key features of the stochastic oscillations can be captured by an effective model for phase oscillators that are coupled by signals with distributed delays.
Reliability modelling - PETROBRAS 2010 integrated gas supply chain
Faertes, Denise; Heil, Luciana; Saker, Leonardo; Vieira, Flavia; Risi, Francisco; Domingues, Joaquim; Alvarenga, Tobias; Carvalho, Eduardo; Mussel, Patricia
2010-09-15
The purpose of this paper is to present the innovative reliability modeling of Petrobras 2010 integrated gas supply chain. The model represents a challenge in terms of complexity and software robustness. It was jointly developed by PETROBRAS Gas and Power Department and Det Norske Veritas. It was carried out with the objective of evaluating security of supply of 2010 gas network design that was conceived to connect Brazilian Northeast and Southeast regions. To provide best in class analysis, state of the art software was used to quantify the availability and the efficiency of the overall network and its individual components.
Hierarchical Multiple Markov Chain Model for Unsupervised Texture Segmentation
Scarpa, G.; Gaetano, R.; Haindl, Michal; Zerubia, J.
2009-01-01
Roč. 18, č. 8 (2009), s. 1830-1843 ISSN 1057-7149 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/08/0593 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 507752 - MUSCLE Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Classification * texture analysis * segmentation * hierarchical image models * Markov process Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information Impact factor: 2.848, year: 2009 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2009/RO/haindl-hierarchical multiple markov chain model for unsupervised texture segmentation.pdf
Developing a Model for Agile Supply: an Empirical Study from Iranian Pharmaceutical Supply Chain
Rajabzadeh Ghatari, Ali; Mehralian, Gholamhossein; Zarenezhad, Forouzandeh; Rasekh, Hamid Reza
2013-01-01
Agility is the fundamental characteristic of a supply chain needed for survival in turbulent markets, where environmental forces create additional uncertainty resulting in higher risk in the supply chain management. In addition, agility helps providing the right product, at the right time to the consumer. The main goal of this research is therefore to promote supplier selection in pharmaceutical industry according to the formative basic factors. Moreover, this paper can configure its supply network to achieve the agile supply chain. The present article analyzes the supply part of supply chain based on SCOR model, used to assess agile supply chains by highlighting their specific characteristics and applicability in providing the active pharmaceutical ingredient (API). This methodology provides an analytical modeling; the model enables potential suppliers to be assessed against the multiple criteria using both quantitative and qualitative measures. In addition, for making priority of critical factors, TOPSIS algorithm has been used as a common technique of MADM model. Finally, several factors such as delivery speed, planning and reorder segmentation, trust development and material quantity adjustment are identified and prioritized as critical factors for being agile in supply of API. PMID:24250689
Developing a model for agile supply: an empirical study from Iranian pharmaceutical supply chain.
Rajabzadeh Ghatari, Ali; Mehralian, Gholamhossein; Zarenezhad, Forouzandeh; Rasekh, Hamid Reza
2013-01-01
Agility is the fundamental characteristic of a supply chain needed for survival in turbulent markets, where environmental forces create additional uncertainty resulting in higher risk in the supply chain management. In addition, agility helps providing the right product, at the right time to the consumer. The main goal of this research is therefore to promote supplier selection in pharmaceutical industry according to the formative basic factors. Moreover, this paper can configure its supply network to achieve the agile supply chain. The present article analyzes the supply part of supply chain based on SCOR model, used to assess agile supply chains by highlighting their specific characteristics and applicability in providing the active pharmaceutical ingredient (API). This methodology provides an analytical modeling; the model enables potential suppliers to be assessed against the multiple criteria using both quantitative and qualitative measures. In addition, for making priority of critical factors, TOPSIS algorithm has been used as a common technique of MADM model. Finally, several factors such as delivery speed, planning and reorder segmentation, trust development and material quantity adjustment are identified and prioritized as critical factors for being agile in supply of API.
A Case Study Using Modeling and Simulation to Predict Logistics Supply Chain Issues
Tucker, David A.
2007-01-01
Optimization of critical supply chains to deliver thousands of parts, materials, sub-assemblies, and vehicle structures as needed is vital to the success of the Constellation Program. Thorough analysis needs to be performed on the integrated supply chain processes to plan, source, make, deliver, and return critical items efficiently. Process modeling provides simulation technology-based, predictive solutions for supply chain problems which enable decision makers to reduce costs, accelerate cycle time and improve business performance. For example, United Space Alliance, LLC utilized this approach in late 2006 to build simulation models that recreated shuttle orbiter thruster failures and predicted the potential impact of thruster removals on logistics spare assets. The main objective was the early identification of possible problems in providing thruster spares for the remainder of the Shuttle Flight Manifest. After extensive analysis the model results were used to quantify potential problems and led to improvement actions in the supply chain. Similarly the proper modeling and analysis of Constellation parts, materials, operations, and information flows will help ensure the efficiency of the critical logistics supply chains and the overall success of the program.
Belijar, G; Valdez-Nava, Z; Diaham, S; Laudebat, L; Lebey, T; Jones, T B
2017-01-01
Polymer/ceramic composite materials are of great interest for their many potential applications because of their ability to combine at least two properties of the constitutive elements: particles and matrix. In most cases, such enhanced properties are required only in one direction. Orthotropic materials can be elaborated by applying an ac electric field to form particle chain structures in the direction of the electric field due to the dielectrophoretic interactions affecting the particles. However, there is still a lack in the understanding of the impact of the structures on the properties of the material. The aim of this study is to propose a predictive model for the evolution of the permittivity during the chain formation, by including micro- and macroscopic phenomena. The chaining model is based on dipole–dipole interactions and the dielectric permittivity is computed through a finite element method. In parallel, an experimental study is performed with online permittivity measurements of composites during chaining. The developed model is able to predict the experimental results from 1 vol% while taking into account parameters such as the resin viscosity and permittivity and the transient evolution of the applied electric field. The formation of particle chains inside a material has applications in many domains such as electrorheological fluids, anisotropic composites, self-recovery materials etc. Such a developed model is a valuable tool for the tailoring of materials. (paper)
Using spiral chain models for study of nanoscroll structures
Savin, Alexander V.; Sakovich, Ruslan A.; Mazo, Mikhail A.
2018-04-01
Molecular nanoribbons with different chemical structures can form scrolled packings possessing outstanding properties and application perspectives due to their morphology. Here, we propose a simplified two-dimensional model of the molecular chain that allows us to describe the molecular nanoribbon's scrolled packings of various structures as a spiral packaging chain. The model allows us to obtain the possible stationary states of single-layer nanoribbon scrolls of graphene, graphane, fluorographene, fluorographane (graphene hydrogenated on one side and fluorinated on the other side), graphone C4H (graphene partially hydrogenated on one side), and fluorographone C4F . The obtained states and the states of the scrolls found through all-atomic models coincide with good accuracy. We show the stability of scrolled packings and calculate the dependence of energy, the number of coils, and the inner and outer radius of the scrolled packing on the nanoribbon length. It is shown that a scrolled packing is the most energetically favorable conformation for nanoribbons of graphene, graphane, fluorographene, and fluorographane at large lengths. A double-scrolled packing when the nanoribbon is symmetrically rolled into a scroll from opposite ends is more advantageous for longer length nanoribbons of graphone and fluorographone. We show the possibility of the existence of scrolled packings for nanoribbons of fluorographene and the existence of two different types of scrolls for nanoribbons of fluorographane, which correspond to the left and right Archimedean spirals of the chain model. The simplicity of the proposed model allows us to consider the dynamics of molecular nanoribbon scrolls of sufficiently large lengths and at sufficiently large time intervals.
Wahyudi Sutopo
2016-12-01
Full Text Available In recent years, the rising competitive environment with shorter product life cycles and high customization forces industries to increase their flexibility, speed up their response, and enhance concurrent engineering designs. To integrate these prospects, supply chain collaboration becomes a pertinent strategy for industries to strengthen their competitiveness. The network design problem is used to implement supply chain collaboration. In the buying and selling process, sharing information between buyer and supplier are important to obtain a transaction decision. The optimimum supply chain profit can be identified by mathematical model of network design problem. The Mathematical Model takes into consideration the uncertainity in negotiation of supply chain, transportation problems, and locationallocation of products from supplier to buyer in the planning based on the time value of money. The results show that the model can be used to optimize the supply chain profit. The supplier gets a profit because income were received in the initial contract, while the buyer profit comes from lower pay.
The Optimization of Cyclic Links of Live Pig-Industry Chain Based on Circular Economics
Xing Liu
2015-12-01
Full Text Available To reduce waste and wastewater pollution and to improve the utilization rate of resources in the pig-industry chain, a circular economy of the chain can be developed. The key to constructing the circular economic system of the pig-industry chain is to determine the path of the cyclic materials and to design reasonable waste- and wastewater-treatment capacities. This paper focuses on the treatment and recycling of wastewater in the pig-industry chain and the treatment and recycling of waste into manure and feed. After giving the two circular paths, the paper proposes a multi-objective uncertainty-optimization model for the cyclic links of the pig-industry chain with the highest resource-reuse efficiency and the lowest construction cost based on the uncertainty of market demand. Using a combination of the neural network and genetic algorithm method for designing the solution process for the model, the paper finally introduces the determination methods of relevant parameters and verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the model through a case study.
A design of strategic alliance based on value chain of surveying and mapping enterprises in China
Duan, Hong; Huang, Xianfeng
2007-06-01
In this paper, we use value chain and strategic alliance theories to analyzing the surveying and mapping Industry and enterprises. The value chain of surveying and mapping enterprises is highly-contacted but split by administrative interference, the enterprises are common small scale. According to the above things, we consider that establishing a nonequity- Holding strategic alliance based on value chain is an available way, it can not only let the enterprises share the superior resources in different sectors of the whole value chain each other but avoid offending the interests of related administrative departments, by this way, the surveying and mapping enterprises gain development respectively and totally. Then, we give the method to building up the strategic alliance model through parting the value chain and the using advantage of companies in different value chain sectors. Finally, we analyze the internal rule of strategic alliance and prove it is a suitable way to realize the development of surveying and mapping enterprises through game theory.
NFC-Based Traceability in the Food Chain
Danny Pigini
2017-10-01
Full Text Available In recent years, many events related to food and public health, such as bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE, commonly known as mad cow disease, dioxin, bird flu and swine flu, brought the issue of food security to the center of international attention. Many countries established strict rules to ensure the food traceability “from farm to fork” to meet the demand of consumer safety and to ensure public health. Consequently, the concepts of controlled supply chain, brand of quality and traceability of food products have had a strong evolution. Companies in the food production sector must evolve and change their organizational and management chain to satisfy increasingly stringent government rules and to respond to the requirements of the market. From this point of view, NFC (Near Field Communication has all the requirements to become the main technology for traceability in the various food sectors. This paper proposes a solution to gather information throughout the entire food supply chain and bring it directly to the consumer. The architecture consists of a complex identification system based on NFC tags, which cumulates data during all phases of the production process. The aim of this work is to keep track of the information generated during food processing, not only for traceability purposes, but also for enhancing and optimizing production. The data generated by the traceability system are collected in a cloud database through apps on Android smartphones. The information is accessible by the consumers through a public Android application. The pork supply chain has been used as an application example of the proposed methodology.
Mathematical Modeling of Acclimation Processes of the Photosynthetic Chain
S Heidari
2016-10-01
and systematically analyze the dependence of system key characteristic such as rate constant and pool size. For medium and high light intensity, experimental evidence has been predicted with high accuracy by simulation. In low light intensity (100μE m-2s-1 in a few seconds the light phase, a temporary increase in the rate of NPQ was observed after about 60 seconds it reaches to a steady state level. Model simulation of the induction of NPQ relaxation is more accurate than previous predictions, due to the introduction of more stringent quenching agents (xanthophylls cycle and also the light-harvesting complex protonations. The results showed that the pH drop in the transition from darkness to light and high light intensity increases. For low light intensity quenching process occurs with a more gentle slope to the prediction model based on previous experiments is more realistic. In low light conditions, the proton concentration can easily be balanced by ATP synthase activity. This leads to a reduction in current proton-proton feedback gathered during few seconds is balanced. Thus, at high light intensities ATP levels remained stable in the new model is more consistent with reality. Conclusions A simple mathematical model which has been developed in this paper provides a more detailed description of this process and be able to predict the various components and parameters associated with it. Comparison of simulation results with experimental data revealed that protonated light harvesting complex and Zeaxanthin simultaneously induce NPQ quenching processes. The results can be seen as theoretical basis for developing more accurate models to study molecular mechanisms of acclimation processes of the photosynthetic chain.
Connections of the Liouville model and XXZ spin chain
Faddeev, Ludvig D.; Tirkkonen, Olav
1995-02-01
The quantum theory of the Liouville model with imaginary field is considered using the Quantum Inverse Scattering Method. An integrable structure with non-trivial spectral-parameter dependence is developed for lattice Liouville theory by scaling the L-matrix of lattice sine-Gordon theory. This L-matrix yields Bethe ansatz equations for Liouville theory, by the methods of the algebraic Bethe ansatz. Using the string picture of excited Bethe states, the lattice Liouville Bethe equations are mapped to the corresponding spin- {1}/{2} XXZ chain equations. The well developed theory of finite-size corrections in spin chains is used to deduce the conformal properties of the lattice Liouville Bethe states. The unitary series of conformal field theories emerge for Liouville couplings of the form γ = πν/( ν + 1), corresponding to root of unity XXZ anisotropies. The Bethe states give the full spectrum of the corresponding unitary conformal field theory, with the primary states in the Kač table parameterized by a string length K, and the remnant of the chain length mod ( ν + 1).
Connections of the Liouville model and XXZ spin chain
Faddeev, L.D.; Tirkkonen, O.
1995-01-01
The quantum theory of the Liouville model with imaginary field is considered using the Quantum Inverse Scattering Method. An integrable structure with non-trivial spectral-parameter dependence is developed for lattice Liouville theory by scaling the L-matrix of lattice sine-Gordon theory. This L-matrix yields Bethe ansatz equations for Liouville theory, by the methods of the algebraic Bethe ansatz. Using the string picture of excited Bethe states, the lattice Liouville Bethe equations are mapped to the corresponding spin-1/2 XXZ chain equations. The well developed theory of finite-size corrections in spin chains is used to deduce the conformal properties of the lattice Liouville Bethe states. The unitary series of conformal field theories emerge for Liouville couplings of the form γ= πν/(ν+1), corresponding to root of unity XXZ anisotropies. The Bethe states give the full spectrum of the corresponding unitary conformal field theory, with the primary states in the Kac table parameterized by a string length K, and the remnant of the chain length mod (ν+1). (orig.)
Modeling Value Chain Analysis of Distance Education using UML
Acharya, Anal; Mukherjee, Soumen
2010-10-01
Distance education continues to grow as a methodology for the delivery of course content in higher education in India as well as abroad. To manage this growing demand and to provide certain flexibility, there must be certain strategic planning about the use of ICT tools. Value chain analysis is a framework for breaking down the sequence of business functions into a set of activities through which utility could be added to service. Thus it can help to determine the competitive advantage that is enjoyed by an institute. To implement these business functions certain visual representation is required. UML allows for this representation by using a set of structural and behavioral diagrams. In this paper, the first section defines a framework for value chain analysis and highlights its advantages. The second section gives a brief overview of related work in this field. The third section gives a brief discussion on distance education. The fourth section very briefly introduces UML. The fifth section models value chain of distance education using UML. Finally we discuss the limitations and the problems posed in this domain.
15 years of food-chain modeling in Romania
Gheorghe, R.; Galeriu, D.; Apostoaie, I.; Gheorghe, D.
2002-01-01
In the very begin of Chernobyl accident, the high contamination of food, the large variability and the unexpected behavior posed many problems in order to assess the radiological consequences. A simple dynamic food-chain model was built in early May and used for our first assessment on future food contamination and overall impact of Chernobyl in Romania. This quite primitive model show remarkable performance when compared in late 86 and 87 with measurements and our projection of dose was close to a factor two with 10 years later post assessment. After the slowing down of radiological stress we developed a more advanced, process level model of food chain, using not only all literature available but also all local measurements with quality assurance. This model, named LINDOZ, was first internationally applied in the frame of A4 scenario in BIOMOVS 1. and presented in the 1990 Stockholm conference. It was the first time when fallout solubility and foliar absorption were introduced in such a model, explaining very well the dynamics of grass and milk contamination. Upgrades of the model were done concerning deposition and retention and LINDOZ91 was successfully applied in international comparisons VAMP and BIOMOVS 2., including blind tests. Using local expertise and certified data, correlation between probability distribution of deposition and food contamination were used and successfully applied to predict Cs body content distribution in VAMP scenario. Extension to lake-fish was done and tested with excellent results in BIOMOVS 2. In 1994, the model was applied in the first attempt to assess food contamination in Iput region and this old results have been compared recently with those obtained last year by other modelers using updated scenario information. The key points in LINDOZ and its performances in international comparison exercises are presented. In 90'years the German model ECOSYS was spread in Europe and a variant (FDMT) was developed as a food-chain model for
Freire, J J
2008-01-01
The bond fluctuation model with a bond potential has been applied to investigation of the glass transition of linear chains and chains with a regular disposition of small branches. Cooling and subsequent heating curves are obtained for the chain energies and also for the mean acceptance probability of a bead jump. In order to mimic different trends to vitrification, a factor B gauging the strength of the bond potential with respect to the long-range potential (i.e. the intramolecular or intermolecular potential between indirectly bonded beads) has been introduced. (A higher value of B leads to a preference for the highest bond lengths and a higher total energy, implying a greater tendency to vitrify.) Different cases have been considered for linear chains: no long-range potential, no bond potential and several choices for B. Furthermore, two distinct values of B have been considered for alternate bonds in linear chains. In the case of the branched chains, mixed models with different values of B for bonds in the main chain and in the branches have also been investigated. The possible presence of ordering or crystallization has been characterized by calculating the collective light scattering function of the different samples after annealing at a convenient temperature below the onset of the abrupt change in the curves associated with a thermodynamic transition. It is concluded that ordering is inherited more efficiently in the systems with branched chains and also for higher values of B. The branched molecules with the highest B values in the main chain bonds exhibit two distinct transitions in the heating curves, which may be associated with two glass transitions. This behavior has been detected experimentally for chains with relatively long flexible branches
Freire, J J [Departamento de Ciencias y Tecnicas FisicoquImicas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educacion a Distancia (UNED), Senda del Rey 9, 28040 Madrid (Spain)], E-mail: jfreire@invi.uned.es
2008-07-16
The bond fluctuation model with a bond potential has been applied to investigation of the glass transition of linear chains and chains with a regular disposition of small branches. Cooling and subsequent heating curves are obtained for the chain energies and also for the mean acceptance probability of a bead jump. In order to mimic different trends to vitrification, a factor B gauging the strength of the bond potential with respect to the long-range potential (i.e. the intramolecular or intermolecular potential between indirectly bonded beads) has been introduced. (A higher value of B leads to a preference for the highest bond lengths and a higher total energy, implying a greater tendency to vitrify.) Different cases have been considered for linear chains: no long-range potential, no bond potential and several choices for B. Furthermore, two distinct values of B have been considered for alternate bonds in linear chains. In the case of the branched chains, mixed models with different values of B for bonds in the main chain and in the branches have also been investigated. The possible presence of ordering or crystallization has been characterized by calculating the collective light scattering function of the different samples after annealing at a convenient temperature below the onset of the abrupt change in the curves associated with a thermodynamic transition. It is concluded that ordering is inherited more efficiently in the systems with branched chains and also for higher values of B. The branched molecules with the highest B values in the main chain bonds exhibit two distinct transitions in the heating curves, which may be associated with two glass transitions. This behavior has been detected experimentally for chains with relatively long flexible branches.
Tromp, S O; Rijgersberg, H; Franz, E
2010-10-01
Quantitative microbial risk assessments do not usually account for the planning and ordering mechanisms (logistics) of a food supply chain. These mechanisms and consumer demand determine the storage and delay times of products. The aim of this study was to quantitatively assess the difference between simulating supply chain logistics (MOD) and assuming fixed storage times (FIX) in microbial risk estimation for the supply chain of fresh-cut leafy green vegetables destined for working-canteen salad bars. The results of the FIX model were previously published (E. Franz, S. O. Tromp, H. Rijgersberg, and H. J. van der Fels-Klerx, J. Food Prot. 73:274-285, 2010). Pathogen growth was modeled using stochastic discrete-event simulation of the applied logistics concept. The public health effects were assessed by conducting an exposure assessment and risk characterization. The relative growths of Escherichia coli O157 (17%) and Salmonella enterica (15%) were identical in the MOD and FIX models. In contrast, the relative growth of Listeria monocytogenes was considerably higher in the MOD model (1,156%) than in the FIX model (194%). The probability of L. monocytogenes infection in The Netherlands was higher in the MOD model (5.18×10(-8)) than in the FIX model (1.23×10(-8)). The risk of listeriosis-induced fetal mortality in the perinatal population increased from 1.24×10(-4) (FIX) to 1.66×10(-4) (MOD). Modeling the probabilistic nature of supply chain logistics is of additional value for microbial risk assessments regarding psychrotrophic pathogens in food products for which time and temperature are the postharvest preventive measures in guaranteeing food safety.
Reliability Modeling of Electromechanical System with Meta-Action Chain Methodology
Genbao Zhang
2018-01-01
Full Text Available To establish a more flexible and accurate reliability model, the reliability modeling and solving algorithm based on the meta-action chain thought are used in this thesis. Instead of estimating the reliability of the whole system only in the standard operating mode, this dissertation adopts the structure chain and the operating action chain for the system reliability modeling. The failure information and structure information for each component are integrated into the model to overcome the given factors applied in the traditional modeling. In the industrial application, there may be different operating modes for a multicomponent system. The meta-action chain methodology can estimate the system reliability under different operating modes by modeling the components with varieties of failure sensitivities. This approach has been identified by computing some electromechanical system cases. The results indicate that the process could improve the system reliability estimation. It is an effective tool to solve the reliability estimation problem in the system under various operating modes.
Stochastic model of milk homogenization process using Markov's chain
A. A. Khvostov
2016-01-01
Full Text Available The process of development of a mathematical model of the process of homogenization of dairy products is considered in the work. The theory of Markov's chains was used in the development of the mathematical model, Markov's chain with discrete states and continuous parameter for which the homogenisation pressure is taken, being the basis for the model structure. Machine realization of the model is implemented in the medium of structural modeling MathWorks Simulink™. Identification of the model parameters was carried out by minimizing the standard deviation calculated from the experimental data for each fraction of dairy products fat phase. As the set of experimental data processing results of the micrographic images of fat globules of whole milk samples distribution which were subjected to homogenization at different pressures were used. Pattern Search method was used as optimization method with the Latin Hypercube search algorithm from Global Optimization Тoolbox library. The accuracy of calculations averaged over all fractions of 0.88% (the relative share of units, the maximum relative error was 3.7% with the homogenization pressure of 30 MPa, which may be due to the very abrupt change in properties from the original milk in the particle size distribution at the beginning of the homogenization process and the lack of experimental data at homogenization pressures of below the specified value. The mathematical model proposed allows to calculate the profile of volume and mass distribution of the fat phase (fat globules in the product, depending on the homogenization pressure and can be used in the laboratory and research of dairy products composition, as well as in the calculation, design and modeling of the process equipment of the dairy industry enterprises.
A Structural Model of Intellectual Capital in Supply Chains
Parisi, Cristiana
Intellectual capital (IC) is probably one of the most critical resources of the knowledge society. However, the discipline of IC still needs empirically grounded research, especially with regards to the interrelations between the different component of IC and how these enable or impinge upon the ...... performance. This result both contributes to the IC and SCM literature, as it offers a better understanding of the multiple interrelations between the IC components from a SCM perspective and provides evidence of their impact on the value creation process of supply chains....... the internal organisational value creation process. The present paper helps to address the need for empirical investigation about the interconnections between the components of IC and their value creation, by assessing the structural effects of intellectual capital on firms’ financial performance from a supply...... chain management perspective. A model composed by five constructs describing intellectual capital and three constructs describing firms’ internal performance is proposed. The theoretical model is then tested through a structural equation modeling technique. The components of intellectual capital...
Modeling of aqueous electrolyte solutions with perturbed-chain statistical associated fluid theory
Cameretti, Luca F.; Sadowski, Gabriele; Mollerup, Jørgen
2005-01-01
The vapor pressures and liquid densities of single-salt electrolyte solutions containing NaCl, LiCl, KCl, NaBr, LiBr, KBr, NaI, LiI, KI, Li2SO4, Na2SO4, and K2SO4 were modeled with an equation of state based on perturbed-chain statistical associated fluid theory (PC-SAFT). The PC-SAFT model...
75 FR 29307 - Web Based Supply Chain Management Commodity Offer Form, Paperwork Collection Notice
2010-05-25
... Based Supply Chain Management Commodity Offer Form, Paperwork Collection Notice AGENCY: Agricultural... collection request is required for the implementation of a new system named Web Based Supply Chain Management...-2782. Mail: David Tuckwiller, Project Manager, Web Based Supply Chain Management System, Agricultural...
Time-based analysis of the apheresis platelet supply chain in England.
Wilding, R; Cotton, S; Dobbin, J; Chapman, J; Yates, N
2011-10-01
During 2009/2010 loss of platelets within NHS Blood and Transplant (NHSBT) due to time expiry was 9.3%. Hospitals remain reluctant to hold stocks of platelets due to the poor shelf life at issue. The purpose of this study was to identify areas for time compression in the apheresis platelet supply chain to extend the shelf life available for hospitals and reduce wastage in NHSBT. This was done within the context of NHSBT reconfiguring their supply chain and moving towards a consolidated and centralised approach. Time based process mapping was applied to identify value and non-value adding time in two manufacturing models. A large amount of the non-value adding time in the apheresis platelet supply chain is due to transportation and waiting for the next process in the manufacturing process to take place. Time based process mapping provides an effective 'lens' for supply chain professionals to identify opportunities for improvement in the platelet supply chain. © 2011 The Author(s). Vox Sanguinis © 2011 International Society of Blood Transfusion.
CORPORATE FORESIGHT AND PERFORMANCE: A CHAIN-OF-EFFECTS MODEL
Jissink, Tymen; Huizingh, Eelko K.R.E.; Rohrbeck, René
2015-01-01
In this paper we develop and validate a measurement scale for corporate foresight and examine its impact on performance in a chain-of-effects model. We conceptualize corporate foresight as an organizational ability consisting of five distinct dimensions: information scope, method usage, people......, formal organization, and culture. We investigate the relation of corporate foresight with three innovation performance dimensions – new product success, new product innovativeness, and financial performance. We use partial-least-squares structural equations modelling to assess our measurement mode ls...... and test our research hypotheses. Using a cross-industry sample of 153 innovative firms, we find that corporate foresight can be validly and reliably measured by our measurement instrument. The results of the structural model support the hypothesized positive effects of corporate foresight on all...
Discrete persistent-chain model for protein binding on DNA.
Lam, Pui-Man; Zhen, Yi
2011-04-01
We describe and solve a discrete persistent-chain model of protein binding on DNA, involving an extra σ(i) at a site i of the DNA. This variable takes the value 1 or 0, depending on whether or not the site is occupied by a protein. In addition, if the site is occupied by a protein, there is an extra energy cost ɛ. For a small force, we obtain analytic expressions for the force-extension curve and the fraction of bound protein on the DNA. For higher forces, the model can be solved numerically to obtain force-extension curves and the average fraction of bound proteins as a function of applied force. Our model can be used to analyze experimental force-extension curves of protein binding on DNA, and hence deduce the number of bound proteins in the case of nonspecific binding. ©2011 American Physical Society
Supply Chain Simulation using Business Process Modeling in Service Oriented Architecture
Taejong Yoo
2015-01-01
For supply chain optimization, as a key determinant of strategic resources mobility along the value-added chain, simulation is widely used to test the impact on supply chain performance for the strategic level decisions, such as the number of plants, the modes of transport, or the relocation of warehouses. Traditionally, a single centralized model that encompasses multiple participants in the supply chain is built when optimization of the supply chain through simulation is required. However, ...
Research on a Microgrid Subsidy Strategy Based on Operational Efficiency of the Industry Chain
Yong Long
2018-05-01
Full Text Available Government subsidy is a powerful tool to motivate the development of a new energy industry. At the early stage of microgrid development, for the sake of the cost and benefit issue, it is necessary for the government to subsidize so as to support and promote the development of microgrids. However, a big challenge in practice is how to optimize the operational efficiency of the microgrid industry chain with varying targets and methods of subsidy. In order to explore this problem, we construct a subsidy model based on the microgrid industry chain, involving government, investor, operator, equipment supplier, and user. Through calculation and solution of this model, we obtain price and return indicators of each microgrid industry chain participant when the subsidy target differs. Based on that, we contrast and compare the optimal subsidy strategy and influencing factors when operational efficiency indicators vary. Finally, we validate and analyze this model with numerical analysis and discuss the impact of development stage, technological level, and change in subsidy amount on the operational efficiency of the microgrid industry chain and on the returns of each participant. This result is of great significance to subsidy practice for microgrids and the development of microgrids.
Evaluating the value chain model for service organisational strategy: International hotels.
Choi, Keetag.
2000-01-01
Strategic models like Porter's (1985) value chain have not been fully evaluated in the strategy literature and applied to all industries. To theoretically redefine the value chain technique, this research evaluates the value chain's use with various strategic issues by applying it to a specific aspect in the service field, namely the hotel industry. The study defines five key questions by which to evaluate a strategic model and the value chain model is examined using them. This research is a ...
Steenbakkers, Rudi J A; Schieber, Jay D; Tzoumanekas, Christos; Li, Ying; Liu, Wing Kam; Kröger, Martin
2014-01-01
We present a method to map the full equilibrium distribution of the primitive-path (PP) length, obtained from multi-chain simulations of polymer melts, onto a single-chain mean-field ‘target’ model. Most previous works used the Doi–Edwards tube model as a target. However, the average number of monomers per PP segment, obtained from multi-chain PP networks, has consistently shown a discrepancy of a factor of two with respect to tube-model estimates. Part of the problem is that the tube model neglects fluctuations in the lengths of PP segments, the number of entanglements per chain and the distribution of monomers among PP segments, while all these fluctuations are observed in multi-chain simulations. Here we use a recently proposed slip-link model, which includes fluctuations in all these variables as well as in the spatial positions of the entanglements. This turns out to be essential to obtain qualitative and quantitative agreement with the equilibrium PP-length distribution obtained from multi-chain simulations. By fitting this distribution, we are able to determine two of the three parameters of the model, which govern its equilibrium properties. This mapping is executed for four different linear polymers and for different molecular weights. The two parameters are found to depend on chemistry, but not on molecular weight. The model predicts a constant plateau modulus minus a correction inversely proportional to molecular weight. The value for well-entangled chains, with the parameters determined ab initio, lies in the range of experimental data for the materials investigated. (paper)
Optimal design and planning of glycerol-based biorefinery supply chains under uncertainty
Loureiro da Costa Lira Gargalo, Carina; Carvalho, Ana; Gernaey, Krist V.
2017-01-01
-echelon mixed integer linear programming problem is proposed based upon a previous model, GlyThink. In the new formulation, market uncertainties are taken into account at the strategic planning level. The robustness of the supply chain structures is analyzed based on statistical data provided...... by the implementation of the Monte Carlo method, where a deterministic optimization problem is solved for each scenario. Furthermore, the solution of the stochastic multi-objective optimization model, points to the Pareto set of trade-off solutions obtained when maximizing the NPV and minimizing environmental......The optimal design and planning of glycerol-based biorefinery supply chains is critical for the development and implementation of this concept in a sustainable manner. To achieve this, a decision-making framework is proposed in this work, to holistically optimize the design and planning...
Lu Hualiang
2006-01-01
We applied a two-stage value chain model to investigate the effects of input application and occasional transaction costs on vegetable marketing chain efficiencies with a farm household-level data set. In the first stage, the production efficiencies with the combination of resource endowments, capital and managerial inputs, and production techniques were evaluated; then at the second stage, the marketing technical efficiencies were determined under the marketing value of the vegetables for th...
Comparison of models of radionuclide migration in food chains
Hanusik, V.; Mitro, A.; Chorvat, D.
1985-01-01
Two models are compared used for describing the transfer of radioactive substances to man through food chains: the model used in US NRC Regulatory Guide 1.109 and that used in Interatomehnergo NTD No. 38.220.56-81. The models are compared with regard to the approach to model construction, with regard to mathematical expressions and recommended values of parameters. The comparative calculations show that with the use of the recommended values the contribution of direct contamination is prevalent in both models. The concentration of radioactive substances in selected products calculated for indirect contamination using the NRC method is more conservative. For direct and total contamination the NRC method provides higher values of concentrations in the leaf and non-leaf vegetables (cabbage, potatoes, cucumbers) than the NTD method. Concentrations in non-leaf vegetables are higher than in wheat for 4 nuclides only and in meat and milk for 13 radionuclides of the considered set of 22 radionuclides. Substitution of the recommended values of the parameters of the NRC model with recommended values of the corresponding parameters of the NTD model will reduce total concentrations in products as against initial results of the two studied models. (author)
The role of uncertainty in supply chains under dynamic modeling
M. Fera
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The uncertainty in the supply chains (SCs for manufacturing and services firms is going to be, over the coming decades, more important for the companies that are called to compete in a new globalized economy. Risky situations for manufacturing are considered in trying to individuate the optimal positioning of the order penetration point (OPP. It aims at defining the best level of information of the client’s order going back through the several supply chain (SC phases, i.e. engineering, procurement, production and distribution. This work aims at defining a system dynamics model to assess competitiveness coming from the positioning of the order in different SC locations. A Taguchi analysis has been implemented to create a decision map for identifying possible strategic decisions under different scenarios and with alternatives for order location in the SC levels. Centralized and decentralized strategies for SC integration are discussed. In the model proposed, the location of OPP is influenced by the demand variation, production time, stock-outs and stock amount. Results of this research are as follows: (i customer-oriented strategies are preferable under high volatility of demand, (ii production-focused strategies are suggested when the probability of stock-outs is high, (iii no specific location is preferable if a centralized control architecture is implemented, (iv centralization requires cooperation among partners to achieve the SC optimum point, (v the producer must not prefer the OPP location at the Retailer level when the general strategy is focused on a decentralized approach.
Zhao, Ning-bo; Yang, Jia-long; Li, Shu-ying; Sun, Yue-wu
2014-01-01
Performance degradation forecast technology for quantitatively assessing degradation states of aeroengine using exhaust gas temperature is an important technology in the aeroengine health management. In this paper, a GM (1, 1) Markov chain-based approach is introduced to forecast exhaust gas temperature by taking the advantages of GM (1, 1) model in time series and the advantages of Markov chain model in dealing with highly nonlinear and stochastic data caused by uncertain factors. In this ap...
The phase behavior of a hard sphere chain model of a binary n-alkane mixture
Malanoski, A. P.; Monson, P. A.
2000-01-01
Monte Carlo computer simulations have been used to study the solid and fluid phase properties as well as phase equilibrium in a flexible, united atom, hard sphere chain model of n-heptane/n-octane mixtures. We describe a methodology for calculating the chemical potentials for the components in the mixture based on a technique used previously for atomic mixtures. The mixture was found to conform accurately to ideal solution behavior in the fluid phase. However, much greater nonidealities were seen in the solid phase. Phase equilibrium calculations indicate a phase diagram with solid-fluid phase equilibrium and a eutectic point. The components are only miscible in the solid phase for dilute solutions of the shorter chains in the longer chains. (c) 2000 American Institute of Physics
Markov Chain model for the stochastic behaviors of wind-direction data
Masseran, Nurulkamal
2015-01-01
Highlights: • I develop a Markov chain model to describe about the stochastic and probabilistic behaviors of wind direction data. • I describe some of the theoretical arguments regarding the Markov chain model in term of wind direction data. • I suggest a limiting probabilities approach to determine a dominant directions of wind blow. - Abstract: Analyzing the behaviors of wind direction can complement knowledge concerning wind speed and help researchers draw conclusions regarding wind energy potential. Knowledge of the wind’s direction enables the wind turbine to be positioned in such a way as to maximize the total amount of captured energy and optimize the wind farm’s performance. In this paper, first-order and higher-order Markov chain models are proposed to describe the probabilistic behaviors of wind-direction data. A case study is conducted using data from Mersing, Malaysia. The wind-direction data are classified according to an eight-state Markov chain based on natural geographical directions. The model’s parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood method and the linear programming formulation. Several theoretical arguments regarding the model are also discussed. Finally, limiting probabilities are used to determine a long-run proportion of the wind directions generated. The results explain the dominant direction for Mersing’s wind in terms of probability metrics
Automated main-chain model building by template matching and iterative fragment extension
Terwilliger, Thomas C.
2003-01-01
A method for automated macromolecular main-chain model building is described. An algorithm for the automated macromolecular model building of polypeptide backbones is described. The procedure is hierarchical. In the initial stages, many overlapping polypeptide fragments are built. In subsequent stages, the fragments are extended and then connected. Identification of the locations of helical and β-strand regions is carried out by FFT-based template matching. Fragment libraries of helices and β-strands from refined protein structures are then positioned at the potential locations of helices and strands and the longest segments that fit the electron-density map are chosen. The helices and strands are then extended using fragment libraries consisting of sequences three amino acids long derived from refined protein structures. The resulting segments of polypeptide chain are then connected by choosing those which overlap at two or more C α positions. The fully automated procedure has been implemented in RESOLVE and is capable of model building at resolutions as low as 3.5 Å. The algorithm is useful for building a preliminary main-chain model that can serve as a basis for refinement and side-chain addition
Morteza Ghobakhloo; Sai Hong Tang; Mohammad Sadegh Sabouri; Norzima Zulkifli
2014-01-01
This paper seeks to develop and test a model to examine the relationships between, technical aspects of IS resources (IS alignment, IS resources technical quality, IS advancement), supply chain process integration, and firm performance. A questionnaire-based survey was conducted to collect data from 227 supply chain, logistics, or procurement/purchasing managers of leading manufacturing and retail organizations. Drawing on resources-based view of the firm, and through extending the concept of...
Levels & Barriers to Supply Chain Integration: A conceptual model of Supply Chain Performance
RajaIrfan Sabir; Muhammad Irfan
2014-01-01
In modern business scenario Supply chain has become the back bone for every business organization. All supply chain partners are joined together in value delivery network of company that no one can perform better without support of other. The ultimate objective of this cohesive relationship is to deliver value to customers and gets desired state of customer satisfaction & loyalty for the organization. For this purpose it is necessary to integrate the internal and external partners of Supply c...
Jonrinaldi, Hadiguna, Rika Ampuh; Salastino, Rades
2017-11-01
Environmental consciousness has paid many attention nowadays. It is not only about how to recycle, remanufacture or reuse used end products but it is also how to optimize the operations of the reverse system. A previous research has proposed a design of reverse supply chain of biodiesel network from used cooking oil. However, the research focused on the design of the supply chain strategy not the operations of the supply chain. It only decided how to design the structure of the supply chain in the next few years, and the process of each stage will be conducted in the supply chain system in general. The supply chain system has not considered operational policies to be conducted by the companies in the supply chain. Companies need a policy for each stage of the supply chain operations to be conducted so as to produce the optimal supply chain system, including how to use all the resources that have been designed in order to achieve the objectives of the supply chain system. Therefore, this paper proposes a model to optimize the operational planning of a biodiesel supply chain network from used cooking oil. A mixed integer linear programming is developed to model the operational planning of biodiesel supply chain in order to minimize the total operational cost of the supply chain. Based on the implementation of the model developed, the total operational cost of the biodiesel supply chain incurred by the system is less than the total operational cost of supply chain based on the previous research during seven days of operational planning about amount of 2,743,470.00 or 0.186%. Production costs contributed to 74.6 % of total operational cost and the cost of purchasing the used cooking oil contributed to 24.1 % of total operational cost. So, the system should pay more attention to these two aspects as changes in the value of these aspects will cause significant effects to the change in the total operational cost of the supply chain.
Analisa Interdependensi Antara Value Chain Dan Business Model Pada Industri Pengolahan Makanan
Kristiani, Paulina
2015-01-01
Latar belakang dari penelitian ini adalah dengan melihat kondisi lingkungan bisnis yang semakin ketat dan bersaing maka diperlukan model bisnis dan value chain untuk mampu bersaing dalam lingkungan industri. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk melakukan analisa dan mengevaluasi pada value chain saat ini kemudian merancang pengembangan value chain berdasarkan komponen model bisnis. Teknik pengumpulan data adalah dengan menggunakan teknik wawancara dan data value chain makanan saat ini yang diam...
Consequence and Resilience Modeling for Chemical Supply Chains
Stamber, Kevin L.; Vugrin, Eric D.; Ehlen, Mark A.; Sun, Amy C.; Warren, Drake E.; Welk, Margaret E.
2011-01-01
The U.S. chemical sector produces more than 70,000 chemicals that are essential material inputs to critical infrastructure systems, such as the energy, public health, and food and agriculture sectors. Disruptions to the chemical sector can potentially cascade to other dependent sectors, resulting in serious national consequences. To address this concern, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) tasked Sandia National Laboratories to develop a predictive consequence modeling and simulation capability for global chemical supply chains. This paper describes that capability , which includes a dynamic supply chain simulation platform called N_ABLE(tm). The paper also presents results from a case study that simulates the consequences of a Gulf Coast hurricane on selected segments of the U.S. chemical sector. The case study identified consequences that include impacted chemical facilities, cascading impacts to other parts of the chemical sector. and estimates of the lengths of chemical shortages and recovery . Overall. these simulation results can DHS prepare for and respond to actual disruptions.
A conceptual mitigation model for asymmetric information of supply chain in seaweed cultivation
Teniwut, Wellem A.; Betaubun, Kamilius D.; Marimin; Djatna, Taufik
2017-10-01
Seaweed cultivation has a better advantage over other fisheries activity in terms of easiness on conducting the production and multiplier effect on coastal community welfare. The effect of seaweed farming on the prosperity of coastal community in Southeast Maluku started to take place in 2008, although in 2012 either number of production and workforce is declining rapidly. By solving this problem, this article also provided with identifying and analyzing the supply chain of seaweed cultivation in Southeast Maluku. Based on this analysis we have found that one of the main reasons of declining seaweed production and the number seaweed farmers was asymmetric information that occurred on seaweed supply chain in Southeast Maluku. The component of asymmetric risk was the quality of the seeds, price, information and technology and the knowledge of actual market of seaweed, especially by seaweed farmers. Therefore, it is essential to make a conceptual model on mitigation of asymmetric information on the supply chain of seaweed production. We proposed a conceptual model based on four perspectives, first was goal, criteria and sub-criteria, actor and the solution to mitigate asymmetric information supply chain on seaweed cultivation.
Fuzzy Control Model and Simulation for Nonlinear Supply Chain System with Lead Times
Songtao Zhang
2017-01-01
Full Text Available A new fuzzy robust control strategy for the nonlinear supply chain system in the presence of lead times is proposed. Based on Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy control system, the fuzzy control model of the nonlinear supply chain system with lead times is constructed. Additionally, we design a fuzzy robust H∞ control strategy taking the definition of maximal overlapped-rules group into consideration to restrain the impacts such as those caused by lead times, switching actions among submodels, and customers’ stochastic demands. This control strategy can not only guarantee that the nonlinear supply chain system is robustly asymptotically stable but also realize soft switching among subsystems of the nonlinear supply chain to make the less fluctuation of the system variables by introducing the membership function of fuzzy system. The comparisons between the proposed fuzzy robust H∞ control strategy and the robust H∞ control strategy are finally illustrated through numerical simulations on a two-stage nonlinear supply chain with lead times.
Sensitivity analysis of the terrestrial food chain model FOOD III
Zach, Reto.
1980-10-01
As a first step in constructing a terrestrial food chain model suitable for long-term waste management situations, a numerical sensitivity analysis of FOOD III was carried out to identify important model parameters. The analysis involved 42 radionuclides, four pathways, 14 food types, 93 parameters and three percentages of parameter variation. We also investigated the importance of radionuclides, pathways and food types. The analysis involved a simple contamination model to render results from individual pathways comparable. The analysis showed that radionuclides vary greatly in their dose contribution to each of the four pathways, but relative contributions to each pathway are very similar. Man's and animals' drinking water pathways are much more important than the leaf and root pathways. However, this result depends on the contamination model used. All the pathways contain unimportant food types. Considering the number of parameters involved, FOOD III has too many different food types. Many of the parameters of the leaf and root pathway are important. However, this is true for only a few of the parameters of animals' drinking water pathway, and for neither of the two parameters of mans' drinking water pathway. The radiological decay constant increases the variability of these results. The dose factor is consistently the most important variable, and it explains most of the variability of radionuclide doses within pathways. Consideration of the variability of dose factors is important in contemporary as well as long-term waste management assessment models, if realistic estimates are to be made. (auth)
Ensemble bayesian model averaging using markov chain Monte Carlo sampling
Vrugt, Jasper A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Diks, Cees G H [NON LANL; Clark, Martyn P [NON LANL
2008-01-01
Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has recently been proposed as a statistical method to calibrate forecast ensembles from numerical weather models. Successful implementation of BMA however, requires accurate estimates of the weights and variances of the individual competing models in the ensemble. In their seminal paper (Raftery etal. Mon Weather Rev 133: 1155-1174, 2(05)) has recommended the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for BMA model training, even though global convergence of this algorithm cannot be guaranteed. In this paper, we compare the performance of the EM algorithm and the recently developed Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating the BMA weights and variances. Simulation experiments using 48-hour ensemble data of surface temperature and multi-model stream-flow forecasts show that both methods produce similar results, and that their performance is unaffected by the length of the training data set. However, MCMC simulation with DREAM is capable of efficiently handling a wide variety of BMA predictive distributions, and provides useful information about the uncertainty associated with the estimated BMA weights and variances.
Stochastic modeling of pitting corrosion in underground pipelines using Markov chains
Velazquez, J.C.; Caleyo, F.; Hallen, J.M.; Araujo, J.E. [Instituto Politecnico Nacional (IPN), Mexico D.F. (Mexico). Escuela Superior de Ingenieria Quimica e Industrias Extractivas (ESIQIE); Valor, A. [Universidad de La Habana, La Habana (Cuba)
2009-07-01
A non-homogenous, linear growth (pure birth) Markov process, with discrete states in continuous time, has been used to model external pitting corrosion in underground pipelines. The transition probability function for the pit depth is obtained from the analytical solution of the forward Kolmogorov equations for this process. The parameters of the transition probability function between depth states can be identified from the observed time evolution of the mean of the pit depth distribution. Monte Carlo simulations were used to predict the time evolution of the mean value of the pit depth distribution in soils with different physicochemical characteristics. The simulated distributions have been used to create an empirical Markov-chain-based stochastic model for predicting the evolution of pitting corrosion from the observed properties of the soil in contact with the pipeline. Real- life case studies, involving simulated and measured pit depth distributions are presented to illustrate the application of the proposed Markov chains model. (author)
Guitao Zhang
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The advertisement can increase the consumers demand; therefore it is one of the most important marketing strategies in the operations management of enterprises. This paper aims to analyze the impact of advertising investment on a discrete dynamic supply chain network which consists of suppliers, manufactures, retailers, and demand markets associated at different tiers under random demand. The impact of advertising investment will last several planning periods besides the current period due to delay effect. Based on noncooperative game theory, variational inequality, and Lagrange dual theory, the optimal economic behaviors of the suppliers, the manufactures, the retailers, and the consumers in the demand markets are modeled. In turn, the supply chain network equilibrium model is proposed and computed by modified project contraction algorithm with fixed step. The effectiveness of the model is illustrated by numerical examples, and managerial insights are obtained through the analysis of advertising investment in multiple periods and advertising delay effect among different periods.
Fabiana Lucena Oliveira
2017-01-01
Full Text Available This paper discusses transport modes supporting Uncertainty Supply Chain Model (USCM in the case of Manaus Industrial Pole (PIM, an industrial cluster in the Brazilian Amazon that hosts six hundred factories with diverse logistics and supply chain managerial strategies. USCM (Lee, 2002; Fisher, 1997develops a dot matrix classification of the supply chains considering several attributes (e.g., agility, cost, security, responsiveness and argues that emergent economies industrial clusters, in the effort to keep attractiveness for technological frontier firms, need to adapt supply chain strategies according to USCM attributes. The paper takes a further step, discussing which transport modes are suitable to each supply chain classified at the USCM in PIM´s case. The research´s methods covered the use of PIM´s statistical official database (secondary data, interviews with the main logistical services providers of PIM and phone survey with a sample of firms (primary data. Findings confirm the theoretical argument that different supply chains will demand different transport modes running at the same time in the same industrial cluster (Oliveira, 2009. In the case of PIM, this implies investments on port and airport infrastructure and a strategic focus on air transport mode, due to (1 short life cycle of products, (2 distance from suppliers, (3 quick response to demand and (4 the fact that even PIM´s standard products use, in average, forty per cent of air transport at inbound logistics.
Efficiency and Privacy Enhancement for a Track and Trace System of RFID-Based Supply Chains
Xunjun Chen
2015-06-01
Full Text Available One of the major applications of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID technology is in supply chain management as it promises to provide real-time visibility based on the function of track and trace. However, such an RFID-based track and trace system raises new security and privacy challenges due to the restricted resource of tags. In this paper, we refine three privacy related models (i.e., the privacy, path unlinkability, and tag unlinkability of RFID-based track and trace systems, and clarify the relations among these privacy models. Specifically, we have proven that privacy is equivalent to path unlinkability and tag unlinkability implies privacy. Our results simplify the privacy concept and protocol design for RFID-based track and trace systems. Furthermore, we propose an efficient track and trace scheme, Tracker+, which allows for authentic and private identification of RFID-tagged objects in supply chains. In the Tracker+, no computational ability is required for tags, but only a few bytes of storage (such as EPC Class 1 Gen 2 tags are needed to store the tag state. Indeed, Tracker+ reduces the memory requirements for each tag by one group element compared to the Tracker presented in other literature. Moreover, Tracker+ provides privacy against supply chain inside attacks.
Dynamic modeling system for the transfer of radioactivity in terrestrial food chains
Simmonds, J.R.; Linsley, G.S.
1981-01-01
A dynamic modeling system is described for the transfer of radionuclides in terrestrial food chains. The main features of the system are its ability to predict the time dependence of the major transfer processes and its flexibility and applicability to a range of contamination scenarios. The modeling system is regarded as a basic framework on which more realistic models can be based, given the availability of reliable environmental transfer data. An example of such a development is included for 90 Sr in the pasture-cow-milk pathway. The model predicts annual average concentrations of 90 Sr in milk caused by fallout in the United Kingdom to within 15% of measured values for over most of the 20-y period for which data exist. It makes possible the evaluation of the time dependence of the contributions of various transfer processes. Following acute releases to the atmosphere or releases in any other contamination scenario where direct deposition is absent, certain pathways often not considered in food-chain models, such as the external contamination of plants caused by resuspension processes or the ingestion of contaminants together with soil by grazing animals, are shown to be potentially important in the transfer of activity to man. The main application of dynamic food-chain models is the prediction of the consequences of accidental releases to the terrestrial environment. The predictions can be used in planning countermeasures and in assessing the health, economic, and social impacts of accidental release
Palander, Teijo
2011-01-01
In this paper, a multiple objective model to large-scale and long-term industrial energy supply chain scheduling problems is considered. The problems include the allocation of a number of fossil, peat, and wood-waste fuel procurement chains to an energy plant during different periods. This decision environment is further complicated by sequence-dependent procurement chains for forest fuels. A dynamic linear programming model can be efficiently used for modelling energy flows in fuel procurement planning. However, due to the complex nature of the problem, the resulting model cannot be directly used to solve the combined heat and electricity production problem in a manner that is relevant to the energy industry. Therefore, this approach was used with a multiple objective programming model to better describe the combinatorial complexity of the scheduling task. The properties of this methodology are discussed and four examples of how the model works based on real-world data and optional peat fuel tax, feed-in tariff of electricity and energy efficiency constraints are presented. The energy industry as a whole is subject to policy decisions regarding renewable energy production and energy efficiency regulation. These decisions should be made on the basis of comprehensive techno-economic analysis using local energy supply chain models. -- Highlights: → The energy policy decisions are made using comprehensive techno-economic analysis. → Peat tax, feed-in tariff and energy efficiency increases renewable energy production. → The potential of peat procurement deviates from the current assumptions of managers. → The dynamic MOLP model could easily be adapted to a changing decision environment.
Process Reengineering of Cold Chain Logistics of Agricultural Products Based on Low-carbon Economy
Guo, Hong-xia; Shao, Ming
2012-01-01
Through the process analysis of cold chain logistics of agricultural products, we find that cold chain logistics of agricultural products contradict the development model of low-carbon economy to some extent. We apply the development idea of low-carbon economy, introduce the third-party logistics companies, establish distribution center of cold chain logistics of agricultural products, and strengthen information sharing, to reengineer the process of cold chain logistics of agricultural produc...
Modelling and simulation of the integration of the supply chain of forward and backward type
Roman Domański
2015-03-01
Full Text Available Background: The integration, besides synergy and convergence, is regarded as a leading orientation in modern logistics. The connection of various participants within supply chains enables the integration of actions and allows to fulfill growing customers' demands in an effective and economically efficient way. In times of a concept of the balanced development, growing interest in utilization of recycled material, connected with possibilities to consolidate logistic activities, can be observed. According to the scientific literature (integration models as well as practical business cases, supply chains of forward and backward type (two-directional are the area of logistics of the intensive development. Material and methods: The paper presents the Authors' model and methodology of modeling of the integration of supply chains, which realizes the flows of forward and backward type (two-directions. The empirical material was obtained during modeling and simulation of processes in the environment of iGrafx Process 2013 for Six Sigma with the support of Minitab 17 (for planning of experiments. The method of the verification of statistical hypotheses was used. As a first step, the correlation between the level of the integration and the global service level for the supply chain was conducted using the method of Pearson's coefficient. The test of relevance of correlation coefficient was conducted by the use of t-distribution method. Then the verification of statistical hypotheses was made, based on the method using the Z-statistics. Results: The obtained results indicate clearly the strong relationship between the level of the integration of a supply chain and the obtained service level (values of Pearson's correlation coefficient and results of t-test. The detailed statistical researches of authors indicate that the increased level of the integration leads to the increase of the average value of service level coefficient (results of Z
Markov Chain-Like Quantum Biological Modeling of Mutations, Aging, and Evolution
Ivan B. Djordjevic
2015-08-01
Full Text Available Recent evidence suggests that quantum mechanics is relevant in photosynthesis, magnetoreception, enzymatic catalytic reactions, olfactory reception, photoreception, genetics, electron-transfer in proteins, and evolution; to mention few. In our recent paper published in Life, we have derived the operator-sum representation of a biological channel based on codon basekets, and determined the quantum channel model suitable for study of the quantum biological channel capacity. However, this model is essentially memoryless and it is not able to properly model the propagation of mutation errors in time, the process of aging, and evolution of genetic information through generations. To solve for these problems, we propose novel quantum mechanical models to accurately describe the process of creation spontaneous, induced, and adaptive mutations and their propagation in time. Different biological channel models with memory, proposed in this paper, include: (i Markovian classical model, (ii Markovian-like quantum model, and (iii hybrid quantum-classical model. We then apply these models in a study of aging and evolution of quantum biological channel capacity through generations. We also discuss key differences of these models with respect to a multilevel symmetric channel-based Markovian model and a Kimura model-based Markovian process. These models are quite general and applicable to many open problems in biology, not only biological channel capacity, which is the main focus of the paper. We will show that the famous quantum Master equation approach, commonly used to describe different biological processes, is just the first-order approximation of the proposed quantum Markov chain-like model, when the observation interval tends to zero. One of the important implications of this model is that the aging phenotype becomes determined by different underlying transition probabilities in both programmed and random (damage Markov chain-like models of aging, which
Risk management in organic coffee supply chains : testing the usefulness of critical risk models
Brusselaers, J.F.; Benninga, J.; Hennen, W.H.G.J.
2011-01-01
This report documents the findings of the analysis of the supply chain of organic coffee from Uganda to the Netherlands using a Chain Risk Model (CRM). The CRM considers contamination of organic coffee with chemicals as a threat for the supply chain, and analyses the consequences of contamination in
A Modeling Framework for Supply Chain Simulation: Opportunities for Improved Decision Making
Zee, van der D.J.; Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.
2005-01-01
Owing to its inherent modeling flexibility, simulation is often regarded as the proper means for supporting decision making on supply chain design. The ultimate success of supply chain simulation, however, is determined by a combination of the analyst's skills, the chain members' involvement, and
A modeling framework for supply chain simulation : opportunities for improved decision-making
van der Zee, D.J.; van der Vorst, J.G.A.J.
Owing to its inherent modeling flexibility, simulation is often regarded as the proper means for supporting decision making on supply chain design. The ultimate success of supply chain simulation, however, is determined by a combination of the analyst's skills, the chain members' involvement, and
The Fracture Mechanical Markov Chain Fatigue Model Compared with Empirical Data
Gansted, L.; Brincker, Rune; Hansen, Lars Pilegaard
The applicability of the FMF-model (Fracture Mechanical Markov Chain Fatigue Model) introduced in Gansted, L., R. Brincker and L. Pilegaard Hansen (1991) is tested by simulations and compared with empirical data. Two sets of data have been used, the Virkler data (aluminium alloy) and data...... established at the Laboratory of Structural Engineering at Aalborg University, the AUC-data, (mild steel). The model, which is based on the assumption, that the crack propagation process can be described by a discrete Space Markov theory, is applicable to constant as well as random loading. It is shown...
A methodology and supply chain management inspired reference ontology for modeling healthcare teams.
Kuziemsky, Craig E; Yazdi, Sara
2011-01-01
Numerous studies and strategic plans are advocating more team based healthcare delivery that is facilitated by information and communication technologies (ICTs). However before we can design ICTs to support teams we need a solid conceptual model of team processes and a methodology for using such a model in healthcare settings. This paper draws upon success in the supply chain management domain to develop a reference ontology of healthcare teams and a methodology for modeling teams to instantiate the ontology in specific settings. This research can help us understand how teams function and how we can design ICTs to support teams.
Research on the Optimization of Agricultural Supply Chain Based on Internet of Things
Zhang , Guangsheng
2013-01-01
International audience; Technology of IOT which used in agricultural supply chain can help to improve operational efficiency and reduce supply chain costs. This paper analyzes the basic structure of agricultural supply chain, current status of the research, and summarizes major obstacles of the development process. The paper also describes application of IOT principle, as well as agricultural supply chain optimization approach based on internet of things, including agricultural production, pr...
Parameterisation effect on the behaviour of a head-dependent hydro chain using a nonlinear model
Catalao, J.P.S.; Mariano, S.J.P.S.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Ferreira, L.A.F.M.
2006-01-01
This paper is on the problem of short-term hydro scheduling (STHS), particularly concerning a head-dependent hydro chain. We use a method based on nonlinear programming (NLP), namely quadratic programming, to consider hydroelectric power generation a function of water discharge and of the head. The method has been applied successfully to solve a test case based on a realistic cascaded hydro system with a negligible computational time requirement and is also applied to show that the role played by reservoirs in the hydro chain do not depend only on their relative position. As a new contribution to earlier studies, which presented reservoir operation rules mainly for medium and long-term planning procedures, we show that the physical data defining hydro chain parameters used in the nonlinear model have an effect on the STHS, implying different optimal storage trajectories for the reservoirs accordingly not only with their position in the hydro chain but also with the new parameterisation defining the data for the hydro system. Moreover, considering head dependency in the hydroelectric power generation, usually neglected for hydro plants with a large storage capacity, provides a better short-term management of the conversion of the potential energy available in the reservoirs into electric energy, which represents a major advantage for the hydroelectric utilities in a competitive electricity market. (author)
Life-Cycle Based Climate Regulation Through Supply Chain Contracts
Mitkidis, Katerina
question thus arises what can we do to reduce emissions in global supply chains without having a clear knowledge on their distribution among the supply chain tiers. The paper proposes that commercial contracting can be a viable tool. It provides a brief theoretical account for, some empirical evidence...
Value chain analysis on cassava and cassava based - products in ...
This study examined the value Chain analysis (production process and cost related to each element of production chain to add value) on cassava and cassava products in Imo State specifically to ascertain the farm size holdings of the respondents as well as the ownerships of the land used for production. It also identified` ...
Ahmad Jaafarnehad
2015-09-01
Full Text Available The role and importance of supply chain management, has faced with many challenges and problems. Although a comprehensive model of supply chain issues, has not been explained, we have to indicate that issues such as reviewing the theoretical foundations of information systems, marketing, financial management, logistical and organizational relations have been considered by many researchers. The objective of supply chain management is to improve various activities and components to increase overall supply chain system benefits. In order to achieve the overall objectives, many contradictions may occur between the components and different levels of supply chain and the contradictions that these disorders over time, result in decreased strength and competitiveness of the supply chain. Such conflicts, like marketing costs (advertising, pricing and inventory can occur during the supply chain life cycle. A Game Theory approach with respect to property is the appropriate tool for collaboration in the supply chain. This tool is used for collaborative making in any kind of supply chain such as cooperative supply chain and non-cooperative supply chain. In the present study and assuming a lack of cooperation between different levels of a supply chain, a dynamic game with complete information has been generated. In addition identifying appropriate leaders of various levels of the supply chain is considered. Non-Cooperative dynamic game mode (Stackelberg Game, for each of the three levels of supply chain including retailers, suppliers and manufacturers are modeled. Depending on the bargaining power and its position in the market, any level of supply chain can make a leader of the following rule. In the present study, the equilibrium model to play Stackelberg game may be led by a leader or leading players and ultimately identifying and modeling the appropriate unlimited three level supply chain are determined.
Network Security Risk Assessment System Based on Attack Graph and Markov Chain
Sun, Fuxiong; Pi, Juntao; Lv, Jin; Cao, Tian
2017-10-01
Network security risk assessment technology can be found in advance of the network problems and related vulnerabilities, it has become an important means to solve the problem of network security. Based on attack graph and Markov chain, this paper provides a Network Security Risk Assessment Model (NSRAM). Based on the network infiltration tests, NSRAM generates the attack graph by the breadth traversal algorithm. Combines with the international standard CVSS, the attack probability of atomic nodes are counted, and then the attack transition probabilities of ones are calculated by Markov chain. NSRAM selects the optimal attack path after comprehensive measurement to assessment network security risk. The simulation results show that NSRAM can reflect the actual situation of network security objectively.
E-governmental value chain models : E-government from a business (modelling) perspective
Wassenaar, Arjen
2000-01-01
The paper considers electronic governmental activities from a business perspective, resulting in a so-called governmental value chain model. This model aims to support practitioners for better understanding and realisation of joint organisational and information system innovations in the public
Takaki, Koki; Wade, Andrew J; Collins, Chris D
2017-02-01
New models for estimating bioaccumulation of persistent organic pollutants in the agricultural food chain were developed using recent improvements to plant uptake and cattle transfer models. One model named AgriSim was based on K OW regressions of bioaccumulation in plants and cattle, while the other was a steady-state mechanistic model, AgriCom. The two developed models and European Union System for the Evaluation of Substances (EUSES), as a benchmark, were applied to four reported food chain (soil/air-grass-cow-milk) scenarios to evaluate the performance of each model simulation against the observed data. The four scenarios considered were as follows: (1) polluted soil and air, (2) polluted soil, (3) highly polluted soil surface and polluted subsurface and (4) polluted soil and air at different mountain elevations. AgriCom reproduced observed milk bioaccumulation well for all four scenarios, as did AgriSim for scenarios 1 and 2, but EUSES only did this for scenario 1. The main causes of the deviation for EUSES and AgriSim were the lack of the soil-air-plant pathway and the ambient air-plant pathway, respectively. Based on the results, it is recommended that soil-air-plant and ambient air-plant pathway should be calculated separately and the K OW regression of transfer factor to milk used in EUSES be avoided. AgriCom satisfied the recommendations that led to the low residual errors between the simulated and the observed bioaccumulation in agricultural food chain for the four scenarios considered. It is therefore recommended that this model should be incorporated into regulatory exposure assessment tools. The model uncertainty of the three models should be noted since the simulated concentration in milk from 5th to 95th percentile of the uncertainty analysis often varied over two orders of magnitude. Using a measured value of soil organic carbon content was effective to reduce this uncertainty by one order of magnitude.
Customer involvement in greening the supply chain: an interpretive structural modeling methodology
Kumar, Sanjay; Luthra, Sunil; Haleem, Abid
2013-04-01
The role of customers in green supply chain management needs to be identified and recognized as an important research area. This paper is an attempt to explore the involvement aspect of customers towards greening of the supply chain (SC). An empirical research approach has been used to collect primary data to rank different variables for effective customer involvement in green concept implementation in SC. An interpretive structural-based model has been presented, and variables have been classified using matrice d' impacts croises- multiplication appliqué a un classement analysis. Contextual relationships among variables have been established using experts' opinions. The research may help practicing managers to understand the interaction among variables affecting customer involvement. Further, this understanding may be helpful in framing the policies and strategies to green SC. Analyzing interaction among variables for effective customer involvement in greening SC to develop the structural model in the Indian perspective is an effort towards promoting environment consciousness.
Seasonal storage and alternative carriers: A flexible hydrogen supply chain model
Reuß, M.; Grube, T.; Robinius, M.; Preuster, P.; Wasserscheid, P.; Stolten, D.
2017-01-01
Highlights: •Techno-economic model of future hydrogen supply chains. •Implementation of liquid organic hydrogen carriers into a hydrogen mobility analysis. •Consideration of large-scale seasonal storage for fluctuating renewable hydrogen production. •Implementation of different technologies for hydrogen storage and transportation. -- Abstract: A viable hydrogen infrastructure is one of the main challenges for fuel cells in mobile applications. Several studies have investigated the most cost-efficient hydrogen supply chain structure, with a focus on hydrogen transportation. However, supply chain models based on hydrogen produced by electrolysis require additional seasonal hydrogen storage capacity to close the gap between fluctuation in renewable generation from surplus electricity and fuelling station demand. To address this issue, we developed a model that draws on and extends approaches in the literature with respect to long-term storage. Thus, we analyse Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carriers (LOHC) and show their potential impact on future hydrogen mobility. We demonstrate that LOHC-based pathways are highly promising especially for smaller-scale hydrogen demand and if storage in salt caverns remains uncompetitive, but emit more greenhouse gases (GHG) than other gaseous or hydrogen ones. Liquid hydrogen as a seasonal storage medium offers no advantage compared to LOHC or cavern storage since lower electricity prices for flexible operation cannot balance the investment costs of liquefaction plants. A well-to-wheel analysis indicates that all investigated pathways have less than 30% GHG-emissions compared to conventional fossil fuel pathways within a European framework.
Røstad, Lars Dybsjord; Erichsen, Jeanette Christine
2012-01-01
In this thesis, we have developed a strategic optimization model of investments in infrastructure in the LNG value chain. The focus is on floating LNG production units: when they are a viable solution and what value they add to the LNG value chain. First a deterministic model is presented with focus on describing the value chain, before it is expanded to a multistage stochastic model with uncertain field sizes and gas prices. The objective is to maximize expected discounted profits through op...
Introducing a model for competitiveness of suppliers in supply chain through game theory approach
Hengameh Cighary Deljavan
2012-10-01
Full Text Available Cighary Deljavan and Fariba Sadeghi PDF (300 KAbstract: The purpose of the present study is to introduce a model for competitiveness of suppliers in supply chain through game theory approach in one of the automobile companies of Iran. In this study, the game is based on price and non-price factors and this company is going to estimate the real profit obtained from collaboration with each of supply chain members. This happens by considering the governing competitive condition based on game theory before entering a bit for purchase of α piece as spare part among 8 companies supplying this piece as the supply chain members. According to experts in this industry, the quality is the main non-price competitiveness factor after price. In the current research models, the model introduced by Lu and Tsao (2011 [Lu, J.C., Tsao, Y.C., & Charoensiriwath, C. (2011. Competition Under manufacturer Service and retail price. Economic Modeling, 28,1256-1264.] with two manufacturers- one distributer, being appropriate for the research data, has been considered as the basis and implemented for case study and then it has been extended to n-manufacturers-one common retailer. Following price elasticity of demand, potential size of market or maximum product demand, retailer price, production price, wholesale price, demand amount, manufacturer and retailer profit are estimated under three scenario of manufacturer Stackelberg, Retailer Sackelberg and Vertical Nash. Therefore, by comparing them, price balance points and optimum level of services are specified and the better optimum scenario can be determined. Sensitivity analysis is performed for new model and manufacturers are ranked based on manufacture profit, Retailer profit and customer satisfaction. Finally, in this research in addition to introducing-person game model, customer satisfaction, which has been presented in the previous models as a missed circle are analyzed.
A coordination theoretic model for three level supply chains using ...
Typically, supply chain members are dependent on each other to manage various resources and information. The conﬂicting objectives and lack of coordination between supply chain members may often cause uncertainties in supply and demand. The basic elements of coordination theory like interdependency, coherency ...
Peruvian Food Chain Jenga: Learning Ecosystems with an Interactive Model
Hartweg, Beau; Biffi, Daniella; de la Fuente, Yohanis; Malkoc, Ummuhan; Patterson, Melissa E.; Pearce, Erin; Stewart, Morgan A.; Weinburgh, Molly
2017-01-01
A pilot study was conducted on a multimodal educational tool, Peruvian Food Chain Jenga (PFCJ), with 5th-grade students (N = 54) at a public charter school. The goal was to compare the effectiveness of the multimodal tool to a more traditional presentation of the same materials (food chain) using an experimental/control design. Data collection…
Cambero, Claudia; Sowlati, Taraneh
2016-01-01
Highlights: • Quantified social benefits of forest- based biomass supply chain. • Developed multi-objective optimization model. • Incorporated social benefits into multi-objective model. • Solved the model using the AUGMECON method. • Applied the model to a case study in Canada. - Abstract: Utilization of forest and wood residues to produce bioenergy and biofuels could generate additional revenue streams for forestry companies, reduce their environmental impacts and generate new development opportunities for forest-dependent communities. Further development of forest-based biorefineries entails addressing complexities and challenges related to biomass procurement, logistics, technologies, and sustainability. Numerous optimization models have been proposed for the economic and environmental design of biomass-to-bioenergy or biofuel supply chains. A few of them also maximized the job creation potential of the supply chain through the use of employment multipliers. The use of a total job creation indicator as the social optimization objective implies that all new jobs generate the same level of social benefit. In this paper, we quantify the potential social benefit of new forest-based biorefinery supply chains considering different impacts of new jobs based on their type and location. This social benefit is incorporated into a multi-objective mixed integer linear programming model that maximizes the social benefit, net present value and greenhouse gas emission saving potential of a forest-based biorefinery supply chain. The applicability of the model is illustrated through a case study in the interior region of British Columbia, Canada where different utilization paths for available forest and wood residues are investigated. The multi-objective optimization model is solved using a Pareto-generating method. The analysis of the generated set of Pareto-optimal solutions show a trade-off between the net present value of the supply chain and the other two
Bayesian clustering of DNA sequences using Markov chains and a stochastic partition model.
Jääskinen, Väinö; Parkkinen, Ville; Cheng, Lu; Corander, Jukka
2014-02-01
In many biological applications it is necessary to cluster DNA sequences into groups that represent underlying organismal units, such as named species or genera. In metagenomics this grouping needs typically to be achieved on the basis of relatively short sequences which contain different types of errors, making the use of a statistical modeling approach desirable. Here we introduce a novel method for this purpose by developing a stochastic partition model that clusters Markov chains of a given order. The model is based on a Dirichlet process prior and we use conjugate priors for the Markov chain parameters which enables an analytical expression for comparing the marginal likelihoods of any two partitions. To find a good candidate for the posterior mode in the partition space, we use a hybrid computational approach which combines the EM-algorithm with a greedy search. This is demonstrated to be faster and yield highly accurate results compared to earlier suggested clustering methods for the metagenomics application. Our model is fairly generic and could also be used for clustering of other types of sequence data for which Markov chains provide a reasonable way to compress information, as illustrated by experiments on shotgun sequence type data from an Escherichia coli strain.
Allamsyah Zuhdi
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Blood supply chain management is very complex system. By considering blood’s demand that characterized as stochastic, therefore information and communication among stakeholders are considered as important cycle in supply chain. This research is objected to design interactive communication model based on information technology with android as platform to create effective customer-supplier relationship to support Customer Relationship Management or better known as CRM. The methods that suggested in designing its information system are Quality Function Deployment (QFD approach, Kano Model and Morphological Chart. From mentioned methods, attributes of design and specification priorities of purposed android system technology design are established. Attributes of design will be adjusted with customers’ requirements derived from customer voice that will further be integrated with technical responds in QFD. Technical responds will provide priorities on each design’s attribute of android information system and will be forwarded to the specifications determination by using morphological chart. Later, work flow of design system will be generated by using Data Flow Diagram (DFD. The result of the research will demonstrate the design of information system technology based on android that already adjusted with the requirement of donors as means of communication between suppliers and customers in blood supply chain.
Hurst, Dana
2006-01-01
.... Performance based logistics links acquisition and supply chain management in the Total Life Cycle Systems Management and thus may provide the opportunity for true reform resulting in increased...
T. V. O. Fabson
2011-11-01
Full Text Available Bullwhip (or whiplash effect is an observed phenomenon in forecast driven distribution channeland careful management of these effects is of great importance to managers of supply chain.Bullwhip effect refers to situations where orders to the suppliers tend to have larger variance thansales to the buyer (demand distortion and the distortion increases as we move up the supply chain.Due to the fact that demand of customer for product is unstable, business managers must forecast inorder to properly position inventory and other resources. Forecasts are statistically based and in mostcases, are not very accurate. The existence of forecast errors made it necessary for organizations tooften carry an inventory buffer called “safety stock”. Moving up the supply chain from the end userscustomers to raw materials supplier there is a lot of variation in demand that can be observed, whichcall for greater need for safety stock.This study compares the efficacy of simulation and Time Series model in quantifying the bullwhipeffects in supply chain management.
Modelling and Risk Management in the Offshore and Marine Industry Supply Chain
Carman Lee
2012-03-01
Full Text Available Supply chain risk management is primarily a process that involves the identification, assessment and mitigation of risks that arise in a particular supply chain system. Pertaining to that, the offshore and marine industry is one of the many industries that have seldom received much consideration when it comes to management of the supply chain system. The rig building facet of the offshore and marine industry was thus chosen as the main focus of the project to manage the risks that arise in a particular oil rig building project. A risk mitigation plan framework was proposed to act as a guideline to identify as much risk as possible, eliminate trivial ones, and subsequently, prioritizing the remaining ones. The final step involves the formulation of a mathematical model based on the selected risk. In this case, the risk of raw material price fluctuation is studied. The demonstration of the Monte Carlo simulation using the Risk Solver program was also done to quantify the risks. Two case scenarios were then developed along with the implementation of risk management techniques in order to observe the effectiveness of the risk management of the overall rig building supply chain.
A Unified Framework for Complex Networks with Degree Trichotomy Based on Markov Chains.
Hui, David Shui Wing; Chen, Yi-Chao; Zhang, Gong; Wu, Weijie; Chen, Guanrong; Lui, John C S; Li, Yingtao
2017-06-16
This paper establishes a Markov chain model as a unified framework for describing the evolution processes in complex networks. The unique feature of the proposed model is its capability in addressing the formation mechanism that can reflect the "trichotomy" observed in degree distributions, based on which closed-form solutions can be derived. Important special cases of the proposed unified framework are those classical models, including Poisson, Exponential, Power-law distributed networks. Both simulation and experimental results demonstrate a good match of the proposed model with real datasets, showing its superiority over the classical models. Implications of the model to various applications including citation analysis, online social networks, and vehicular networks design, are also discussed in the paper.
Probability distributions for Markov chain based quantum walks
Balu, Radhakrishnan; Liu, Chaobin; Venegas-Andraca, Salvador E.
2018-01-01
We analyze the probability distributions of the quantum walks induced from Markov chains by Szegedy (2004). The first part of this paper is devoted to the quantum walks induced from finite state Markov chains. It is shown that the probability distribution on the states of the underlying Markov chain is always convergent in the Cesaro sense. In particular, we deduce that the limiting distribution is uniform if the transition matrix is symmetric. In the case of a non-symmetric Markov chain, we exemplify that the limiting distribution of the quantum walk is not necessarily identical with the stationary distribution of the underlying irreducible Markov chain. The Szegedy scheme can be extended to infinite state Markov chains (random walks). In the second part, we formulate the quantum walk induced from a lazy random walk on the line. We then obtain the weak limit of the quantum walk. It is noted that the current quantum walk appears to spread faster than its counterpart-quantum walk on the line driven by the Grover coin discussed in literature. The paper closes with an outlook on possible future directions.
2013-05-01
... Request: Web-Based Supply Chain Management Commodity Offer Forms AGENCY: Farm Service Agency and Commodity..., and yearly bases. Special invitations, however, are issued throughout the month. Web-Based Supply Chain Management (WBSCM) allows respondents to submit information electronically. DATES: Comments on...
New Link in Bioinformatics Services Value Chain: Position, Organization and Business Model
Mladen Čudanov
2012-11-01
Full Text Available This paper presents development in the bioinformatics services industry value chain, based on cloud computing paradigm. As genome sequencing costs per Megabase exponentially drop, industry needs to adopt. Paper has two parts: theoretical analysis and practical example of Seven Bridges Genomics Company. We are focused on explaining organizational, business and financial aspects of new business model in bioinformatics services, rather than technical side of the problem. In the light of that we present twofold business model fit for core bioinformatics research and Information and Communication Technologie (ICT support in the new environment, with higher level of capital utilization and better resistance to business risks.
RADAL: a dynamic model for the transfer of radionuclides through agricultural food chains
Jerez Vegueria, S.F.; Frometa Suarez, I.; Jerez Vegueria, P.F.
1996-01-01
The contamination of agricultural products by radionuclides is a mechanism which results in radiation dose commitment to the population, following fallout deposits from the atmosphere to the landscape. This paper describes the structure of the dynamic food chain model RADAL. This model simulates an acute environmental transport of fallout radionuclides through agricultural food chains to man and estimates the levels of radiation doses resulting from consumption of contaminated food. The development of RADAL was based on different existing models. For mathematical representation the transport of radionuclides was modeled through compartments representing environmental elements and/or food products. The model solves a set of linear, first-order, differential equations to estimate the concentrations of radionuclides in soil, vegetation, animal tissues and animal products as a function of time following their deposition. Dynamic physico-chemical processes of the model include the following: deposition and foliar interception, weathering, foliar absorption, soil resuspension, transfer from soil surface to the root zone, absorption by plant roots, transfer to deep soil, transfer to animal products, and human consumption of agricultural products. A parameter sensitivity analyses, performed for the main parameters of the model, showed that the foliar interception constant and resuspension factor are the most influential parameters over the radiation doses / model output. (author)
A descriptive model of resting-state networks using Markov chains.
Xie, H; Pal, R; Mitra, S
2016-08-01
Resting-state functional connectivity (RSFC) studies considering pairwise linear correlations have attracted great interests while the underlying functional network structure still remains poorly understood. To further our understanding of RSFC, this paper presents an analysis of the resting-state networks (RSNs) based on the steady-state distributions and provides a novel angle to investigate the RSFC of multiple functional nodes. This paper evaluates the consistency of two networks based on the Hellinger distance between the steady-state distributions of the inferred Markov chain models. The results show that generated steady-state distributions of default mode network have higher consistency across subjects than random nodes from various RSNs.
Mustafa KIRLI
2011-01-01
Full Text Available To compete successfully in today’s highly competitive global environment,companies have made customer satisfaction an overriding priority. They have alsoadopted new management approaches, changed their manufacturing systems andinvested in new technologies. Strategic managementaccounting examines thedecision-making linked with the business operationsand strategic work offinancial administration as support for the same. Strategic managementaccounting is a theory and practice of accounting that looks at an organization'scost position, cost advantages and product differentiation in order to make marketdecisions. The value chain is a systematic approachto examining the developmentof competitive advantage. The chain consists of a series of activities that createand build value. Value chain analysis refers to a structured method of analyzingthe effects of all core activities on cost and/or differentiation of the valuechain.With the growing division of labour and the global dispersion of theproduction ofcomponents, systemic competitiveness and so value chain analysishave become increasingly important. Value chain accounting is the combinationof value chain analysis and accounting theory.Valuechain accounting is animportant part of value chain management and a further development of strategicmanagement accounting. Value chain accounting is anew approach onaccounting subject which is combined by the theories of value chain management,supply chain management, accounting management andinformation technology.From the analysis about value chain theory and strategic management accountingtheory,this paper proposes an accounting managementframework based on valuechain analysis called value chain accounting.
Automated main-chain model building by template matching and iterative fragment extension.
Terwilliger, Thomas C
2003-01-01
An algorithm for the automated macromolecular model building of polypeptide backbones is described. The procedure is hierarchical. In the initial stages, many overlapping polypeptide fragments are built. In subsequent stages, the fragments are extended and then connected. Identification of the locations of helical and beta-strand regions is carried out by FFT-based template matching. Fragment libraries of helices and beta-strands from refined protein structures are then positioned at the potential locations of helices and strands and the longest segments that fit the electron-density map are chosen. The helices and strands are then extended using fragment libraries consisting of sequences three amino acids long derived from refined protein structures. The resulting segments of polypeptide chain are then connected by choosing those which overlap at two or more C(alpha) positions. The fully automated procedure has been implemented in RESOLVE and is capable of model building at resolutions as low as 3.5 A. The algorithm is useful for building a preliminary main-chain model that can serve as a basis for refinement and side-chain addition.
De La Rosa Gomez, Alejandro; MacKay, Niall; Regelskis, Vidas
2017-04-01
We present a general method of folding an integrable spin chain, defined on a line, to obtain an integrable open spin chain, defined on a half-line. We illustrate our method through two fundamental models with sl2 Lie algebra symmetry: the Heisenberg XXX and the Inozemtsev hyperbolic spin chains. We obtain new long-range boundary Hamiltonians and demonstrate that they exhibit Yangian symmetries, thus ensuring integrability of the models we obtain. The method presented provides a ;bottom-up; approach for constructing integrable boundaries and can be applied to any spin chain model.
Optimization and Simulation Modeling of Disaster Relief Supply Chain: A Literature Review
Feng, Keli; Bizimana, Emmanuel; Agu, Deedee D.; Issac, Tana T.
2012-01-01
Recent natural and man-made disasters underscore the need of a resilient and agile disaster relief supply chain to mitigate the damages and save people’s lives. Optimization and simulation modeling have become powerful and useful tools to help decision makers tackle problems related to disaster relief supply chain. This paper reviews optimization and simulation models used in the field of disaster relief supply chain. We review the literature of the facility location optimization problems of ...
Markov Chain: A Predictive Model for Manpower Planning ...
ADOWIE PERE
Keywords: Markov Chain, Transition Probability Matrix, Manpower Planning, Recruitment, Promotion, .... movement of the workforce in Jordan productivity .... Planning periods, with T being the horizon, the value of t represents a session.
A coordination theoretic model for three level supply chains using ...
chain members decide their wholesale prices/price of product. ..... 'optimal with buyback contracts' is the new term buyback value realized which is ..... the level of optimality and robustness of a given strategy (Terzi & Cavalieri 2004).
To develop an integrated model for green supply chain | Tajabadi ...
Supply chain management is a set of techniques used for effective and efficient integration of suppliers, manufacturers, warehouses and dealers in such a ... Since the important role of three factors of localization, routing and assignment is not ...
Markov chain: a predictive model for manpower planning | Ezugwu ...
In respect of organizational management, numerous previous studies have ... and to forecast the academic staff structure of the university in the next five years. ... Keywords: Markov Chain, Transition Probability Matrix, Manpower Planning, ...
An Empirical Competence-Capability Model of Supply Chain Innovation
Mandal, Santanu
2016-01-01
Supply chain innovation has become the new pre-requisite for the survival of firms in developing capabilities and strategies for sustaining their operations and performance in the market. This study investigates the influence of supply and demand competence on supply chain innovation and its influence on a firm’s operational and relational performance. While the former competence refers to production and supply management related activities, the latter refers to distribution and demand manage...
Ning-bo Zhao
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Performance degradation forecast technology for quantitatively assessing degradation states of aeroengine using exhaust gas temperature is an important technology in the aeroengine health management. In this paper, a GM (1, 1 Markov chain-based approach is introduced to forecast exhaust gas temperature by taking the advantages of GM (1, 1 model in time series and the advantages of Markov chain model in dealing with highly nonlinear and stochastic data caused by uncertain factors. In this approach, firstly, the GM (1, 1 model is used to forecast the trend by using limited data samples. Then, Markov chain model is integrated into GM (1, 1 model in order to enhance the forecast performance, which can solve the influence of random fluctuation data on forecasting accuracy and achieving an accurate estimate of the nonlinear forecast. As an example, the historical monitoring data of exhaust gas temperature from CFM56 aeroengine of China Southern is used to verify the forecast performance of the GM (1, 1 Markov chain model. The results show that the GM (1, 1 Markov chain model is able to forecast exhaust gas temperature accurately, which can effectively reflect the random fluctuation characteristics of exhaust gas temperature changes over time.
Blasone, Roberta-Serena; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan
2008-01-01
uncertainty estimation (GLUE) procedure based on Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling is applied in order to improve the performance of the methodology in estimating parameters and posterior output distributions. The description of the spatial variations of the hydrological processes is accounted for by defining......In recent years, there has been an increase in the application of distributed, physically-based and integrated hydrological models. Many questions regarding how to properly calibrate and validate distributed models and assess the uncertainty of the estimated parameters and the spatially......-site validation must complement the usual time validation. In this study, we develop, through an application, a comprehensive framework for multi-criteria calibration and uncertainty assessment of distributed physically-based, integrated hydrological models. A revised version of the generalized likelihood...
A joint logistic regression and covariate-adjusted continuous-time Markov chain model.
Rubin, Maria Laura; Chan, Wenyaw; Yamal, Jose-Miguel; Robertson, Claudia Sue
2017-12-10
The use of longitudinal measurements to predict a categorical outcome is an increasingly common goal in research studies. Joint models are commonly used to describe two or more models simultaneously by considering the correlated nature of their outcomes and the random error present in the longitudinal measurements. However, there is limited research on joint models with longitudinal predictors and categorical cross-sectional outcomes. Perhaps the most challenging task is how to model the longitudinal predictor process such that it represents the true biological mechanism that dictates the association with the categorical response. We propose a joint logistic regression and Markov chain model to describe a binary cross-sectional response, where the unobserved transition rates of a two-state continuous-time Markov chain are included as covariates. We use the method of maximum likelihood to estimate the parameters of our model. In a simulation study, coverage probabilities of about 95%, standard deviations close to standard errors, and low biases for the parameter values show that our estimation method is adequate. We apply the proposed joint model to a dataset of patients with traumatic brain injury to describe and predict a 6-month outcome based on physiological data collected post-injury and admission characteristics. Our analysis indicates that the information provided by physiological changes over time may help improve prediction of long-term functional status of these severely ill subjects. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
D Partition-Based Clustering for Supply Chain Data Management
Suhaibah, A.; Uznir, U.; Anton, F.; Mioc, D.; Rahman, A. A.
2015-10-01
Supply Chain Management (SCM) is the management of the products and goods flow from its origin point to point of consumption. During the process of SCM, information and dataset gathered for this application is massive and complex. This is due to its several processes such as procurement, product development and commercialization, physical distribution, outsourcing and partnerships. For a practical application, SCM datasets need to be managed and maintained to serve a better service to its three main categories; distributor, customer and supplier. To manage these datasets, a structure of data constellation is used to accommodate the data into the spatial database. However, the situation in geospatial database creates few problems, for example the performance of the database deteriorate especially during the query operation. We strongly believe that a more practical hierarchical tree structure is required for efficient process of SCM. Besides that, three-dimensional approach is required for the management of SCM datasets since it involve with the multi-level location such as shop lots and residential apartments. 3D R-Tree has been increasingly used for 3D geospatial database management due to its simplicity and extendibility. However, it suffers from serious overlaps between nodes. In this paper, we proposed a partition-based clustering for the construction of a hierarchical tree structure. Several datasets are tested using the proposed method and the percentage of the overlapping nodes and volume coverage are computed and compared with the original 3D R-Tree and other practical approaches. The experiments demonstrated in this paper substantiated that the hierarchical structure of the proposed partitionbased clustering is capable of preserving minimal overlap and coverage. The query performance was tested using 300,000 points of a SCM dataset and the results are presented in this paper. This paper also discusses the outlook of the structure for future reference.
Modeling impurity-assisted chain creation in noble-metal break junctions
Di Napoli, S; Thiess, A; Blügel, S; Mokrousov, Y
2012-01-01
In this work we present the generalization of the model for chain formation in break junctions, introduced by Thiess et al (2008 Nano Lett. 8 2144), to zigzag transition-metal chains with s and p impurities. We apply this extended model to study the producibility trends for noble-metal chains with impurities, often present in break junction experiments, namely, Cu, Ag and Au chains with H, C, O and N adatoms. Providing the material-specific parameters for our model from systematic full-potential linearized augmented plane-wave first-principles calculations, we find that the presence of such impurities crucially affects the binding properties of the noble-metal chains. We reveal that both the impurity-induced bond strengthening and the formation of zigzag bonds can lead to a significantly enhanced probability for chain formation in break junctions. (paper)
Castro-Alvaredo, Olalla A; Fring, Andreas
2009-01-01
We investigate a lattice version of the Yang-Lee model which is characterized by a non-Hermitian quantum spin chain Hamiltonian. We propose a new way to implement PT-symmetry on the lattice, which serves to guarantee the reality of the spectrum in certain regions of values of the coupling constants. In that region of unbroken PT-symmetry, we construct a Dyson map, a metric operator and find the Hermitian counterpart of the Hamiltonian for small values of the number of sites, both exactly and perturbatively. Besides the standard perturbation theory about the Hermitian part of the Hamiltonian, we also carry out an expansion in the second coupling constant of the model. Our constructions turn out to be unique with the sole assumption that the Dyson map is Hermitian. Finally, we analyse the magnetization of the chain in the z- and x-direction.
Fast-slow asymptotics for a Markov chain model of fast sodium current
Starý, Tomáš; Biktashev, Vadim N.
2017-09-01
We explore the feasibility of using fast-slow asymptotics to eliminate the computational stiffness of discrete-state, continuous-time deterministic Markov chain models of ionic channels underlying cardiac excitability. We focus on a Markov chain model of fast sodium current, and investigate its asymptotic behaviour with respect to small parameters identified in different ways.
Comparison of Video and Live Modeling in Teaching Response Chains to Children with Autism
Ergenekon, Yasemin; Tekin-Iftar, Elif; Kapan, Alper; Akmanoglu, Nurgul
2014-01-01
Research has shown that video and live modeling are both effective in teaching new skills to children with autism. An adapted alternating treatments design was used to compare the effectiveness and efficiency of video and live modeling in teaching response chains to three children with autism. Each child was taught two chained skills; one skill…
Waisnawa, I. N. G. S.; Santosa, I. D. M. C.; Sunu, I. P. W.; Wirajati, IGAB
2018-01-01
In developing countries such as Indonesia, as much as 40% of total vegetables and fruits production becomes waste because of lack refrigeration. This condition also contributes a food crisis problem besides other factor such as, climate change and number of population. Cold chain system that will be modelled in this study is for vegetables and fruits and refrigeration system as the main devices. In future, this system will play an important role for the food crisis solution where fresh food can be distributed very well with significant low waste. The fresh food also can be kept with good quality and hygienist (bacteria contaminated). Cold Chain model will be designed using refrigeration components including, pre cooling chiller, cold room, and truck refrigeration. This study will be conducted by survey and observation di around Bali Province focus on vegetables and fruits production center. Interviews and questionnaire will be also done to get some information about the conventional distribution obstacles and problem. Distribution mapping will be developed and created. The data base of the storage characteristic of the fruits and vegetable also collected through experiment and secondary data. Depend on the mapping and data base can be developed a cold chain model that has the best performance application. The model will be can directly apply in Bali to get eligible cold chain in Bali. The cold chain model will be compared with the conventional distribution system using ALCC/LCC method and also others factor and will be weighted to get better results.
Bozhalkina, Yana
2017-12-01
Mathematical model of the loan portfolio structure change in the form of Markov chain is explored. This model considers in one scheme both the process of customers attraction, their selection based on the credit score, and loans repayment. The model describes the structure and volume of the loan portfolio dynamics, which allows to make medium-term forecasts of profitability and risk. Within the model corrective actions of bank management in order to increase lending volumes or to reduce the risk are formalized.
Revisiting Temporal Markov Chains for Continuum modeling of Transport in Porous Media
Delgoshaie, A. H.; Jenny, P.; Tchelepi, H.
2017-12-01
The transport of fluids in porous media is dominated by flow-field heterogeneity resulting from the underlying permeability field. Due to the high uncertainty in the permeability field, many realizations of the reference geological model are used to describe the statistics of the transport phenomena in a Monte Carlo (MC) framework. There has been strong interest in working with stochastic formulations of the transport that are different from the standard MC approach. Several stochastic models based on a velocity process for tracer particle trajectories have been proposed. Previous studies have shown that for high variances of the log-conductivity, the stochastic models need to account for correlations between consecutive velocity transitions to predict dispersion accurately. The correlated velocity models proposed in the literature can be divided into two general classes of temporal and spatial Markov models. Temporal Markov models have been applied successfully to tracer transport in both the longitudinal and transverse directions. These temporal models are Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) with very specific drift and diffusion terms tailored for a specific permeability correlation structure. The drift and diffusion functions devised for a certain setup would not necessarily be suitable for a different scenario, (e.g., a different permeability correlation structure). The spatial Markov models are simple discrete Markov chains that do not require case specific assumptions. However, transverse spreading of contaminant plumes has not been successfully modeled with the available correlated spatial models. Here, we propose a temporal discrete Markov chain to model both the longitudinal and transverse dispersion in a two-dimensional domain. We demonstrate that these temporal Markov models are valid for different correlation structures without modification. Similar to the temporal SDEs, the proposed model respects the limited asymptotic transverse spreading of
Modelling of preheated regenerative chain in Cernavoda NPP using MMS calculation code
Bigu, M.; Nita, I.; Prisecaru, I.; Dupleac, D.
2005-01-01
Full text: In this work it was studied operation of preheated regenerative chain from NPP Cernavoda. To obtain this analysis coupled analyses of condensate system, water supply system, and drain cooler system were effected. The analysis boundaries are: Upstream: - Steam condensers - Turbine Bleed Steam Downstream: - Steam Generators. The analysis was made in two steps: 1) Getting of hydraulic characteristic of pipe network from steam condensers to steam generators at nominal regime; this step was obtained with hydraulic package called PIPENET. 2) Real thermal hydraulic analyses were done based on hydraulic characteristic of pipe network and supplementary data required for heat transfer calculation in equipment of preheated regenerative chain. Thermal analyses were done using MMS package and refered to normal operating regimes, namely, nominal operating regime required for calibration of calculating model, shutdown regime, start-up regime from zero power hot to nominal power and to abnormal operating regimes, namely, turbine trip, reactor trip and loss of two condensate pumps. The results were compared with already existing analysis and showed the largest differences at interface areas (i.e. 5%). This led us to idea of extending analysis to all secondary circuits in order to reduce the number of boundary conditions which can generate uncertainty in analysis. In this analysis we obtained an advanced model of preheated regenerative chain of secondary circuit in Cernavoda NPP which could be extended up to cover the whole secondary circuit by including the analysis of steam generators, turbine, and steam condenser. (authors)
Modelling of preheated regenerative chain in Cernavoda NPP using MMS calculation code
Bigu, M.; Nita, I.; Prisecaru, I.; Dupleac, D.
2005-01-01
In this work it was studied operation of preheated regenerative chain from NPP Cernavoda. To obtain this analysis coupled analyses of condensate system, water supply system, and drain cooler system were effected. The analysis boundaries are: Upstream: - Steam condensers - Turbine Bleed Steam Downstream: - Steam Generators. The analysis was made in two steps: 1) Getting of hydraulic characteristic of pipe network from steam condensers to steam generators at nominal regime; this step was obtained with hydraulic package called PIPENET. 2) Real thermal hydraulic analyses were done based on hydraulic characteristic of pipe network and supplementary data required for heat transfer calculation in equipment of preheated regenerative chain. Thermal analyses were done using MMS package and referred to normal operating regimes, namely, nominal operating regime required for calibration of calculating model, shutdown regime, start-up regime from zero power hot to nominal power and to abnormal operating regimes, namely, turbine trip, reactor trip and loss of two condensate pumps. The results were compared with already existing analysis and showed the largest differences at interface areas (i.e. 5%). This led US to idea of extending analysis to all secondary circuits in order to reduce the number of boundary conditions which can generate uncertainty in analysis. In this analysis we obtained an advanced model of preheated regenerative chain of secondary circuit in Cernavoda NPP which could be extended up to cover the whole secondary circuit by including the analysis of steam generators, turbine, and steam condenser. (authors)
A robust optimization model for agile and build-to-order supply chain planning under uncertainties
Lalmazloumian, Morteza; Wong, Kuan Yew; Govindan, Kannan
2016-01-01
Supply chain planning as one of the most important processes within the supply chain management concept, has a great impact on firms' success or failure. This paper considers a supply chain planning problem of an agile manufacturing company operating in a build-to-order environment under various....... The formulation is a robust optimization model with the objective of minimizing the expected total supply chain cost while maintaining customer service level. The developed multi-product, multi-period, multi-echelon robust mixed-integer linear programming model is then solved using the CPLEX optimization studio...
Optimization of biodiesel supply chains based on small farmers: A case study in Brazil
Leao, Raphael; Hamacher, Silvio
2010-09-15
The strategy adopted by the Brazilian Biodiesel Program is to base its fuel production on oilseeds acquired from small, family-owned farms in the poorest regions of the country, thereby fostering social inclusion and transfer of income. The success of the program depends on the development of a robust supply chain logistic structure, appropriate distribution of crop production, and investments in new oilseed crushing units. This article presents the development of a mathematical model for optimizing the production arrangements for the supply of a biodiesel plant sourced from family farms, taking into account agricultural, logistic, industrial and social aspects.
A New Algorithm of Shape Boundaries Based on Chain Coding
Zhao Xin
2017-01-01
Full Text Available A new method to obtain connected component in binary images is presented. The method uses DFA automaton to obtain chain code and label the component boundary. It is theoretically proved that the algorithm improves the image encoding efficiency closer to the lowest time consumption.
Business process modelling in demand-driven agri-food supply chains : a reference framework
Verdouw, C.N.
2010-01-01
Keywords: Business process models; Supply chain management; Information systems; Reference information models; Market orientation; Mass customisation; Configuration; Coordination; Control; SCOR; Pot plants; Fruit industry
Abstract
The increasing volatility and diversity of
Rich dynamics of a food chain model with ratio-dependent type III ...
Rich dynamics of a food chain model with ratio-dependent type III functional responses. ... Stability analysis of model is carried out by using usual theory of ordinary ... that Hopf bifurcation may also occur when delay passes its critical value.
A Multi-agent Supply Chain Information Coordination Mode Based on Cloud Computing
Wuxue Jiang; Jing Zhang; Junhuai Li
2013-01-01
In order to improve the high efficiency and security of supply chain information coordination under cloud computing environment, this paper proposes a supply chain information coordination mode based on cloud computing. This mode has two basic statuses which are online status and offline status. At the online status, cloud computing center is responsible for coordinating the whole supply chain information. At the offline status, information exchange can be realized among different nodes by u...
Restrictions in Model Reduction for Polymer Chain Models in Dissipative Particle Dynamics
Moreno Chaparro, Nicolas
2014-06-06
We model high molecular weight homopolymers in semidilute concentration via Dissipative Particle Dynamics (DPD). We show that in model reduction methodologies for polymers it is not enough to preserve system properties (i.e., density ρ, pressure p, temperature T, radial distribution function g(r)) but preserving also the characteristic shape and length scale of the polymer chain model is necessary. In this work we apply a DPD-model-reduction methodology for linear polymers recently proposed; and demonstrate why the applicability of this methodology is limited upto certain maximum polymer length, and not suitable for solvent coarse graining.
Restrictions in Model Reduction for Polymer Chain Models in Dissipative Particle Dynamics
Moreno Chaparro, Nicolas; Nunes, Suzana Pereira; Calo, Victor M.
2014-01-01
We model high molecular weight homopolymers in semidilute concentration via Dissipative Particle Dynamics (DPD). We show that in model reduction methodologies for polymers it is not enough to preserve system properties (i.e., density ρ, pressure p, temperature T, radial distribution function g(r)) but preserving also the characteristic shape and length scale of the polymer chain model is necessary. In this work we apply a DPD-model-reduction methodology for linear polymers recently proposed; and demonstrate why the applicability of this methodology is limited upto certain maximum polymer length, and not suitable for solvent coarse graining.
Molitor, John
2012-03-01
Bayesian methods have seen an increase in popularity in a wide variety of scientific fields, including epidemiology. One of the main reasons for their widespread application is the power of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques generally used to fit these models. As a result, researchers often implicitly associate Bayesian models with MCMC estimation procedures. However, Bayesian models do not always require Markov-chain-based methods for parameter estimation. This is important, as MCMC estimation methods, while generally quite powerful, are complex and computationally expensive and suffer from convergence problems related to the manner in which they generate correlated samples used to estimate probability distributions for parameters of interest. In this issue of the Journal, Cole et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2012;175(5):368-375) present an interesting paper that discusses non-Markov-chain-based approaches to fitting Bayesian models. These methods, though limited, can overcome some of the problems associated with MCMC techniques and promise to provide simpler approaches to fitting Bayesian models. Applied researchers will find these estimation approaches intuitively appealing and will gain a deeper understanding of Bayesian models through their use. However, readers should be aware that other non-Markov-chain-based methods are currently in active development and have been widely published in other fields.
Ahmad Jaafarnehad; Ali Mohaghar; Mohammad Modarres Yazdi; Hannan Amoozad Mahdiraji
2015-01-01
The role and importance of supply chain management, has faced with many challenges and problems. Although a comprehensive model of supply chain issues, has not been explained, we have to indicate that issues such as reviewing the theoretical foundations of information systems, marketing, financial management, logistical and organizational relations have been considered by many researchers. The objective of supply chain management is to improve various activities and components to increase ove...
Stepwise kinetic equilibrium models of quantitative polymerase chain reaction
Cobbs Gary
2012-08-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Numerous models for use in interpreting quantitative PCR (qPCR data are present in recent literature. The most commonly used models assume the amplification in qPCR is exponential and fit an exponential model with a constant rate of increase to a select part of the curve. Kinetic theory may be used to model the annealing phase and does not assume constant efficiency of amplification. Mechanistic models describing the annealing phase with kinetic theory offer the most potential for accurate interpretation of qPCR data. Even so, they have not been thoroughly investigated and are rarely used for interpretation of qPCR data. New results for kinetic modeling of qPCR are presented. Results Two models are presented in which the efficiency of amplification is based on equilibrium solutions for the annealing phase of the qPCR process. Model 1 assumes annealing of complementary targets strands and annealing of target and primers are both reversible reactions and reach a dynamic equilibrium. Model 2 assumes all annealing reactions are nonreversible and equilibrium is static. Both models include the effect of primer concentration during the annealing phase. Analytic formulae are given for the equilibrium values of all single and double stranded molecules at the end of the annealing step. The equilibrium values are then used in a stepwise method to describe the whole qPCR process. Rate constants of kinetic models are the same for solutions that are identical except for possibly having different initial target concentrations. Analysis of qPCR curves from such solutions are thus analyzed by simultaneous non-linear curve fitting with the same rate constant values applying to all curves and each curve having a unique value for initial target concentration. The models were fit to two data sets for which the true initial target concentrations are known. Both models give better fit to observed qPCR data than other kinetic models present in the
Stepwise kinetic equilibrium models of quantitative polymerase chain reaction.
Cobbs, Gary
2012-08-16
Numerous models for use in interpreting quantitative PCR (qPCR) data are present in recent literature. The most commonly used models assume the amplification in qPCR is exponential and fit an exponential model with a constant rate of increase to a select part of the curve. Kinetic theory may be used to model the annealing phase and does not assume constant efficiency of amplification. Mechanistic models describing the annealing phase with kinetic theory offer the most potential for accurate interpretation of qPCR data. Even so, they have not been thoroughly investigated and are rarely used for interpretation of qPCR data. New results for kinetic modeling of qPCR are presented. Two models are presented in which the efficiency of amplification is based on equilibrium solutions for the annealing phase of the qPCR process. Model 1 assumes annealing of complementary targets strands and annealing of target and primers are both reversible reactions and reach a dynamic equilibrium. Model 2 assumes all annealing reactions are nonreversible and equilibrium is static. Both models include the effect of primer concentration during the annealing phase. Analytic formulae are given for the equilibrium values of all single and double stranded molecules at the end of the annealing step. The equilibrium values are then used in a stepwise method to describe the whole qPCR process. Rate constants of kinetic models are the same for solutions that are identical except for possibly having different initial target concentrations. Analysis of qPCR curves from such solutions are thus analyzed by simultaneous non-linear curve fitting with the same rate constant values applying to all curves and each curve having a unique value for initial target concentration. The models were fit to two data sets for which the true initial target concentrations are known. Both models give better fit to observed qPCR data than other kinetic models present in the literature. They also give better estimates of
Guo, Jinxin; Gleeson, Michael R; Liu, Shui; Sheridan, John T
2011-01-01
The non-local photopolymerization driven diffusion (NPDD) model predicts that a reduction in the non-local response length within a photopolymer material will improve its high spatial frequency response. The introduction of a chain transfer agent reduces the average molecular weight of polymer chains formed during free radical polymerization. Therefore a chain transfer agent (CTA) provides a practical method to reduce the non-local response length. An extended NPDD model is presented, which includes the chain transfer reaction and most major photochemical processes. The addition of a chain transfer agent into an acrylamide/polyvinyl alcohol photopolymer material is simulated and the predictions of the model are examined. The predictions of the model are experimentally examined in part II of this paper
Short-term droughts forecast using Markov chain model in Victoria, Australia
Rahmat, Siti Nazahiyah; Jayasuriya, Niranjali; Bhuiyan, Muhammed A.
2017-07-01
A comprehensive risk management strategy for dealing with drought should include both short-term and long-term planning. The objective of this paper is to present an early warning method to forecast drought using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and a non-homogeneous Markov chain model. A model such as this is useful for short-term planning. The developed method has been used to forecast droughts at a number of meteorological monitoring stations that have been regionalised into six (6) homogenous clusters with similar drought characteristics based on SPI. The non-homogeneous Markov chain model was used to estimate drought probabilities and drought predictions up to 3 months ahead. The drought severity classes defined using the SPI were computed at a 12-month time scale. The drought probabilities and the predictions were computed for six clusters that depict similar drought characteristics in Victoria, Australia. Overall, the drought severity class predicted was quite similar for all the clusters, with the non-drought class probabilities ranging from 49 to 57 %. For all clusters, the near normal class had a probability of occurrence varying from 27 to 38 %. For the more moderate and severe classes, the probabilities ranged from 2 to 13 % and 3 to 1 %, respectively. The developed model predicted drought situations 1 month ahead reasonably well. However, 2 and 3 months ahead predictions should be used with caution until the models are developed further.
Quasi-Block Copolymers Based on a General Polymeric Chain Stopper.
Sanguramath, Rajashekharayya A; Nealey, Paul F; Shenhar, Roy
2016-07-11
Quasi-block copolymers (q-BCPs) are block copolymers consisting of conventional and supramolecular blocks, in which the conventional block is end-terminated by a functionality that interacts with the supramolecular monomer (a "chain stopper" functionality). A new design of q-BCPs based on a general polymeric chain stopper, which consists of polystyrene end-terminated with a sulfonate group (PS-SO3 Li), is described. Through viscosity measurements and a detailed diffusion-ordered NMR spectroscopy study, it is shown that PS-SO3 Li can effectively cap two types of model supramolecular monomers to form q-BCPs in solution. Furthermore, differential scanning calorimetry data and structural characterization of thin films by scanning force microscopy suggests the existence of the q-BCP architecture in the melt. The new design considerably simplifies the synthesis of polymeric chain stoppers; thus promoting the utilization of q-BCPs as smart, nanostructured materials. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
A formal modeling approach for supply chain event management
Liu, R.; Kumar, Akhil; Aalst, van der W.M.P.
2007-01-01
As supply chains become more dynamic, there is a need for a sense-and-respond capability to react to events in a real-time manner. In this paper, we propose Petri nets extended with time and color (to represent case data) as a formalism for managing events. We designed seven basic patterns to
Logics and Models for Stochastic Analysis Beyond Markov Chains
Zeng, Kebin
, because of the generality of ME distributions, we have to leave the world of Markov chains. To support ME distributions with multiple exits, we introduce a multi-exits ME distribution together with a process algebra MEME to express the systems having the semantics as Markov renewal processes with ME...
No core shell model results for oxygen chain
Saxena, Archana; Srivastavay, Praveen C.
2017-01-01
In the present work, our focus is on oxygen isotopes. We show the energy spectra of 18 O and evolution of occupancies of proton and neutron orbitals in the oxygen chain. We have used inside non local outside Yukawa potential (INOY) for NCSM calculations
Osmani, Atif; Zhang, Jun
2013-01-01
An integrated multi-feedstock (i.e. switchgrass and crop residue) lignocellulosic-based bioethanol supply chain is studied under jointly occurring uncertainties in switchgrass yield, crop residue purchase price, bioethanol demand and sales price. A two-stage stochastic mathematical model is proposed to maximize expected profit by optimizing the strategic and tactical decisions. A case study based on ND (North Dakota) state in the U.S. demonstrates that in a stochastic environment it is cost effective to meet 100% of ND's annual gasoline demand from bioethanol by using switchgrass as a primary and crop residue as a secondary biomass feedstock. Although results show that the financial performance is degraded as variability of the uncertain parameters increases, the proposed stochastic model increasingly outperforms the deterministic model under uncertainties. The locations of biorefineries (i.e. first-stage integer variables) are insensitive to the uncertainties. Sensitivity analysis shows that “mean” value of stochastic parameters has a significant impact on the expected profit and optimal values of first-stage continuous variables. Increase in level of mean ethanol demand and mean sale price results in higher bioethanol production. When mean switchgrass yield is at low level and mean crop residue price is at high level, all the available marginal land is used for switchgrass cultivation. - Highlights: • Two-stage stochastic MILP model for maximizing profit of a multi-feedstock lignocellulosic-based bioethanol supply chain. • Multiple uncertainties in switchgrass yield, crop residue purchase price, bioethanol demand, and bioethanol sale price. • Proposed stochastic model outperforms the traditional deterministic model under uncertainties. • Stochastic parameters significantly affect marginal land allocation for switchgrass cultivation and bioethanol production. • Location of biorefineries is found to be insensitive to the stochastic environment
An oil spill-food chain interaction model for coastal waters
Yew Hoong Gin, K.; Huda, Md. K.; Tkalich, P.
2001-01-01
An oil spill-food chain interaction model, composed of a multiphase oil spill model (MOSM) and a food chain model, has been developed to assess the probable impacts of oil spills on several key marine organisms (phytoplankton, zooplankton, small fish, large fish and benthic invertebrates). The MOSM predicts oil slick thickness on the water surface; dissolved, emulsified and particulate oil concentrations in the water column; and dissolved and particulate oil concentrations in bed sediments. This model is used to predict the fate of oil spills and transport with respect to specific organic compounds, while the food chain model addresses the uptake of toxicant by marine organisms. The oil spill-food chain interaction model can be used to assess the environmental impacts of oil spills in marine ecosystems. The model is applied to the recent Evoikos-Orapin Global oil spill that occurred in the Singapore Strait. (author)
Value Chain and Innovation at the Base of the Pyramid
Esko, Siim; Zeromskis, Mindaugas; Hsuan, Juliana
2013-01-01
is introduced for analysing business readiness in BoP: organisation, value chain and strategy. Four diverse cases were analysed: GE’s reverse innovation project, GrameenPhone, Essilor, and P&G’s PuR. Findings – BoP project should be a top-down supported separate entity with its own strategic processes...... and financial measurements. Working in the value chain requires diverse thinking in terms of interactivity, partners, setup, and governance. Involving customers and consumers in the innovation process is crucial. The venture also needs to make its offerings accessible, affordable, acceptable, available......, and valuable to the customers. A step-by-step scale-up must be followed. Originality/value – The BoP framework can be used as a practical roadmap for companies to analyse the readiness of the business venture and strategy development....
Food-chain and dose model, CALDOS, for assessing Canada's Nuclear Fuel Waste Management concept
Zach, R.; Sheppard, S.C.
1991-01-01
The food-chain and dose model, CALculation of DOSe (CALDOS), was developed for assessing Canada's concept for nuclear fuel waste disposal in a vault deep in crystalline rock of the Canadian Shield. The model is very general and based on the Shield as a whole. The critical group is totally self-sufficient and represented by ICRP (1975) Reference Man for dose prediction. CALDOS assumes steady-state conditions and deals with variation and uncertainty through Monte Carlo simulation techniques. Ingrowth of some radioactive daughters is considered during food-chain transfer. A limit is set on root uptake to avoid unrealistic plant concentrations. Integrated ingestion and inhalation rates of man are calculated in a unique way, based on energy needs. Soil ingestion by man and external exposure from building material are unique pathways considered. Tritium, 129 I, and 222 Rn are treated through special models, and 14 C and 129 I involve unique geosphere dose limits. All transfer coefficients are lognormally distributed, and the plant/soil concentration ratio is correlated with the soil partition coefficient. Animals' ingestion rates are normally distributed and correlated with each other. Comprehensive sets of internal and external dose conversion factors were calculated for CALDOS. Sample calculations show that dose distributions tend to be strongly right-skewed. Many features of CALDOS are relevant for environmental assessment in general
Belharet, Mokrane [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire, SESURE/ LERCM, 83507 La Seyne-sur-mer (France); Laboratoire d' Aerologie, 14 av Eduard Belin, 31400 Toulouse (France); Estournel, Claude [Laboratoire d' Aerologie, 14 av Eduard Belin, 31400 Toulouse (France); Charmasson, Sabine [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire, SESURE/ LERCM, 83507 La Seyne-sur-mer (France)
2014-07-01
Huge quantities of radiocesium ({sup 134}Cs and {sup 137}Cs) were released to the coastal northwestern Pacific ocean after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, that occurred on 11 March 2011. The resultant radiocesium contamination was quickly transferred to marine biota resulting in elevated cesium levels measured in various organisms sampled over this area. This study aims to understand the mechanism of radiocesium behavior in the marine food chain under this non steady state situation (accident) and to estimate contamination levels in these organisms, by using a new modelling approach based on the coupling of three different models: a model of cesium dispersion in the ocean, an ecosystem model and a radioecological model. The model was run for 2 years (2011 and 2012) and was first applied to study marine plankton and planktonivorous fishes contamination. Results of spatio-temporal radiocesium activities in these different organisms, and calculated parameters like concentration ratios, biological half-lives, percentages of contamination coming from each compartment (food and water), and trophic transfer factors were compared to the observed values acquired before and after the accident (steady and non-steady states). (authors)
A fiber bundle-plastic chain model for quasi-brittle materials under uniaxial loading
Shan, Zhi; Yu, Zhiwu
2015-01-01
A fiber bundle-plastic chain model for quasi-brittle materials under both uniaxial compression and tension conditions is developed. By introducing a plastic chain model into the fiber bundle model, a bundle-chain model for quasi-brittle materials is proposed with physical considerations. The model achieves a novel and convenient approach to describe the stochastic effective stress-driven plasticity. It is found that the numerical solutions obtained with this model agree with experimental results when subjected to both monotonic and cyclic uniaxial loading. The model generates a numerical solution with higher accuracy than the present models, when compared with the experimental results on certain problems. An example is shown which utilizes this model to describe the stochastic properties of a constitutive model given as standard. Furthermore, the difference between the existing plastic fiber bundle models in the literature and this model is also obtained in this work. (paper)
Finding metastabilities in reversible Markov chains based on incomplete sampling
Fackeldey Konstantin
2017-01-01
Full Text Available In order to fully characterize the state-transition behaviour of finite Markov chains one needs to provide the corresponding transition matrix P. In many applications such as molecular simulation and drug design, the entries of the transition matrix P are estimated by generating realizations of the Markov chain and determining the one-step conditional probability Pij for a transition from one state i to state j. This sampling can be computational very demanding. Therefore, it is a good idea to reduce the sampling effort. The main purpose of this paper is to design a sampling strategy, which provides a partial sampling of only a subset of the rows of such a matrix P. Our proposed approach fits very well to stochastic processes stemming from simulation of molecular systems or random walks on graphs and it is different from the matrix completion approaches which try to approximate the transition matrix by using a low-rank-assumption. It will be shown how Markov chains can be analyzed on the basis of a partial sampling. More precisely. First, we will estimate the stationary distribution from a partially given matrix P. Second, we will estimate the infinitesimal generator Q of P on the basis of this stationary distribution. Third, from the generator we will compute the leading invariant subspace, which should be identical to the leading invariant subspace of P. Forth, we will apply Robust Perron Cluster Analysis (PCCA+ in order to identify metastabilities using this subspace.
An Agent-based Simulation of a QoS-oriented Supply Chain
Gumzej, Roman; Rosi, Bojan
2017-01-01
With adaptive customer-orientation the efficiency of supply chain management is improved substantially. By the introduction of service quality-based decision-making into supply chain management the quality of service (QoS) within supply chains is expected to improve autonomously and continuously up- and downstream. In the paper the main characteristics of quality of service oriented supply chain management are outlined. The quality of service criterion, introduced into the adaptive supply cha...
The More Supply Chain Control Power, the Better? A Comparison among Four Kinds of Cooperation Models
Weihua Liu
2015-01-01
Full Text Available This paper introduces the parameter of supply chain control power into existing supply chain coordination models and explores the impacts of control power on the profits of manufacturer, retailer, and the overall supply chain under four modes of decision-making, including the decentralized decision-making dominated by manufacturer, the decentralized decision-making dominated by retailer, centralized decision-making, and Nash negotiation decision-making. Some significant conclusions are obtained. Firstly, supply chain control power does have great impact on the supply chain profits. The profit of the whole supply chain with centralized decision-making is higher than those of the other three modes, while the overall profit of supply chain with decentralized decision-making is superior to the profit when retailer and manufacturer dominate the supply chain together. Secondly, with decentralized decision-making, for manufacturer and retailer, it is beneficial to gain the control powers of the supply chain; however, control power has an optimal value, not the bigger, the better. Thirdly, under certain circumstances, order quantity will increase and the wholesale price will decrease when control power is transferred from manufacturer to retailer. In this case, the total profit of supply chain dominated by retailer will be greater than that dominated by manufacturer.
Implications for the human food chain of models of cadmium accumulation in sheep
Prankel, S.H.; Nixon, R.M.; Phillips, C.J.C.
2005-01-01
Critical limits for cadmium in parts of the human food chain are considered to have too small margins of safety and some limits are regularly exceeded. There is concern about the exposure of some sections of the population to cadmium in the human food chain, in particular regarding offal, which is a major source of cadmium to some sectors. The kidney is the first organ of sheep to reach the limit of fitness for human consumption. A model (based on a meta-analysis) predicts that this would occur after a mean of just 130 days of feeding sheep the maximum permitted cadmium concentration in feed (in the European Union) in the organic form. Thus it is not surprising that sheep organs are found routinely to exceed cadmium limits. Since reduction of maximum cadmium levels in sheep feed or of the duration of their exposure are not economically viable measures of control, routine removal of liver and kidney from older sheep from the food chain is recommended as the best option to reduce human dietary cadmium intake from sheep origin
Sathish Kumar, V. R.; Anbuudayasankar, S. P.; Rameshkumar, K.
2018-02-01
In the current globalized scenario, business organizations are more dependent on cost effective supply chain to enhance profitability and better handle competition. Demand uncertainty is an important factor in success or failure of a supply chain. An efficient supply chain limits the stock held at all echelons to the extent of avoiding a stock-out situation. In this paper, a three echelon supply chain model consisting of supplier, manufacturing plant and market is developed and the same is optimized using particle swarm intelligence algorithm.
A capacity expansion planning model for integrated water desalination and power supply chain problem
Saif, Y.; Almansoori, A.
2016-01-01
Highlights: • Water and power supply chain is considered by a discrete optimization model. • The model examines the capacity expansion and operation of the supply chain problem. • Renewable/alternative power technologies and carbon mitigation are considered. • A case study of Abu Dhabi in UAE is examined as an application of the model. - Abstract: Cogeneration of water and power in integrated cogeneration production plants is a common practice in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. There are several combinations of water desalination and power technologies which give significant adverse environmental impact. Renewable and alternative energy technologies have been recently proposed as alternative power production paths in the water and power sector. In this study, we examine the optimal capacity expansion of water and power infrastructure over an extended planning horizon. A generic mixed integer linear programming model is developed to assist in the decision making process on: (1) optimal installation of cogeneration expansion capacities; (2) optimal installation of renewable and alternative power plants; (3) optimal operation of the integrated water and power supply chain over large geographical areas. Furthermore, the model considers the installation of carbon capture methods in fossil-based power plants. A case study will be presented to illustrate the mathematical programming application for the Emirate of Abu Dhabi (AD) in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The case study is solved reflecting different scenarios: base case scenario, integration of renewable and alternative technologies scenario, and CO_2 reduction targets scenario. The results show that increased carbon tax values up to 150 $/ton-CO_2 gives a maximum 3% cost increase for the supply chain net present value. The installation of carbon capture methods is not an economical solution due to its high operation energy requirements in the order of 370 kW h per ton of captured CO_2
Suomalainen, Juha; Franke, Jappe; Anders, Niels; Iqbal, Shahzad; Wenting, Philip; Becker, Rolf; Kooistra, Lammert
2014-05-01
We have developed a lightweight Hyperspectral Mapping System (HYMSY) and a novel processing chain for UAV based mapping. The HYMSY consists of a custom pushbroom spectrometer (range 450-950nm, FWHM 9nm, ~20 lines/s, 328 pixels/line), a consumer camera (collecting 16MPix raw image every 2 seconds), a GPS-Inertia Navigation System (GPS-INS), and synchronization and data storage units. The weight of the system at take-off is 2.0kg allowing us to mount it on a relatively small octocopter. The novel processing chain exploits photogrammetry in the georectification process of the hyperspectral data. At first stage the photos are processed in a photogrammetric software producing a high-resolution RGB orthomosaic, a Digital Surface Model (DSM), and photogrammetric UAV/camera position and attitude at the moment of each photo. These photogrammetric camera positions are then used to enhance the internal accuracy of GPS-INS data. These enhanced GPS-INS data are then used to project the hyperspectral data over the photogrammetric DSM, producing a georectified end product. The presented photogrammetric processing chain allows fully automated georectification of hyperspectral data using a compact GPS-INS unit while still producingin UAV use higher georeferencing accuracy than would be possible using the traditional processing method. During 2013, we have operated HYMSY on 150+ octocopter flights at 60+ sites or days. On typical flight we have produced for a 2-10ha area: a RGB orthoimagemosaic at 1-5cm resolution, a DSM in 5-10cm resolution, and hyperspectral datacube at 10-50cm resolution. The targets have mostly consisted of vegetated targets including potatoes, wheat, sugar beets, onions, tulips, coral reefs, and heathlands,. In this poster we present the Hyperspectral Mapping System and the photogrammetric processing chain with some of our first mapping results.
Hwang, Won Tae; Cho, Gyuseong; Han, Moon Hee
1998-01-01
A dynamic food chain model DYNACON was developed to simulate the radionuclide transfer on agricultural ecosystems. DYNACON estimates the radioactivity in each compartment of food chains for three radionuclides, nine plant species and five animal products as a function of the deposition date. A number of the parameter values used in this study are representative of Korean agricultural conditions. The model was expressed by coupled differential equations and the radioactivity in each compartment was solved as a function of time following an acute deposition. Although DYNACON is structurally based on existing models, it was designed in order to simulate more realistic radionuclide behavior in Korean agricultural conditions and to save computation time. It was found that the radioactivity in foodstuffs depends strongly on the date of deposition. A comparative study between DYNACON and an equilibrium model showed good agreement for depositions that occur during the growing season of plants. DYNACON is going to be implemented in a Korean real-time dose assessment system FADAS. (author)
Five radionuclide vadose zone models with different degrees of complexity (CHAIN, MULTIMED_DP, FECTUZ, HYDRUS, and CHAIN 2D) were selected for use in soil screening level (SSL) calculations. A benchmarking analysis between the models was conducted for a radionuclide (99Tc) rele...
Xing, Yuanzhi; Deng, Xiaoyi
2017-11-01
The paper first has defined the concepts of green supply chain management and evolution game theory, and pointed out the characteristics of green supply chain management in construction. The main participants and key links of the construction green supply chain management are determined by constructing the organization framework. This paper established the evolutionary game model between construction enterprises and recycling enterprises for the green supply chain closed-loop structure. The waste recycling evolutionary stability equilibrium solution is obtained to explore the principle and effective scope of government policy intervention. This paper put forward the relevant countermeasures to the green supply chain management in construction recycling stage from the government point of view. The conclusion has reference value and guidance to the final product construction enterprises, recycling enterprises and the government during green supply chain.
Falling chains as variable-mass systems: theoretical model and experimental analysis
De Sousa, Célia A; Costa, Pedro; Gordo, Paulo M
2012-01-01
In this paper, we revisit, theoretically and experimentally, the fall of a folded U-chain and of a pile-chain. The model calculation implies the division of the whole system into two subsystems of variable mass, allowing us to explore the role of tensional contact forces at the boundary of the subsystems. This justifies, for instance, that the folded U-chain falls faster than the acceleration due to the gravitational force. This result, which matches quite well with the experimental data independently of the type of chain, implies that the falling chain is well described by energy conservation. We verify that these conclusions are not observed for the pile-chain motion. (paper)
Sustainable supply chains : a research-based textbook on operations and strategy
Bouchery, Y.; Corbett, C.J.; Fransoo, J.C.; Tan, T.
2017-01-01
This book is primarily intended to serve as a research-based textbook on sustainable supply chains for graduate programs in Business, Management, Industrial Engineering, and Industrial Ecology, but it should also be of interest for researchers in the broader sustainable supply chain space, whether
Does ICT influence supply chain management and performance? A review of survey-based research
Zhang, Xuan; van Donk, Dirk Pieter; van der Vaart, Taco
2011-01-01
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to review and classify survey-based research connecting information and communication technology (ICT), supply chain management (SCM), and supply chain (SC) performance. The review evaluates present empirical results and aims at detecting explanations for
A model for communication of sensory quality in the seafood processing chain
Green-Petersen, Ditte; Nielsen, Jette; Hyldig, Grethe
2012-01-01
, but it is generally not fully implemented in the chain from catch to consumer. The importance of communicating sensory demands and results from evaluations in the seafood processing chain is described and a Seafood Sensory Quality Model (SSQM) is suggested as a communication tool....
The Action of Chain Extenders in Nylon-6, PET, and Model Compounds
Loontjens, T.; Pauwels, K.; Derks, F.; Neilen, M.; Sham, C.K.; Serné, M.
1997-01-01
The action of two complementary chain extenders is studied in model systems as well as in poly(ethylene terephthalate) (PET) and nylon–6. Chain extenders are low molecular weight compounds that can be used to increase the molecular weight of polymers in a short time. The reaction must preferably be
Mathematical supply-chain modelling: Product analysis of cost and time
Easters, D J
2014-01-01
Establishing a mathematical supply-chain model is a proposition that has received attention due to its inherent benefits of evolving global supply-chain efficiencies. This paper discusses the prevailing relationships found within apparel supply-chain environments, and contemplates the complex issues indicated for constituting a mathematical model. Principal results identified within the data suggest, that the multifarious nature of global supply-chain activities require a degree of simplification in order to fully dilate the necessary factors which affect, each sub-section of the chain. Subsequently, the research findings allowed the division of supply-chain components into sub-sections, which amassed a coherent method of product development activity. Concurrently, the supply-chain model was found to allow systematic mathematical formulae analysis, of cost and time, within the multiple contexts of each subsection encountered. The paper indicates the supply-chain model structure, the mathematics, and considers how product analysis of cost and time can improve the comprehension of product lifecycle management
Linear programming models with planned lead times for supply chain operations planning
Spitter, J.M.; Hurkens, C.A.J.; Kok, de A.G.; Lenstra, J.K.; Negenman, E.G.
2005-01-01
This paper contributes to the development of models for capacity constrained Supply Chain Operations Planning (SCOP). We focus on production environments with arbitrary supply chain structures. The demand for the end items is assumed to be exogenously determined. We solve the SCOP problem with
Mathematical supply-chain modelling: Product analysis of cost and time
Easters, D. J.
2014-03-01
Establishing a mathematical supply-chain model is a proposition that has received attention due to its inherent benefits of evolving global supply-chain efficiencies. This paper discusses the prevailing relationships found within apparel supply-chain environments, and contemplates the complex issues indicated for constituting a mathematical model. Principal results identified within the data suggest, that the multifarious nature of global supply-chain activities require a degree of simplification in order to fully dilate the necessary factors which affect, each sub-section of the chain. Subsequently, the research findings allowed the division of supply-chain components into sub-sections, which amassed a coherent method of product development activity. Concurrently, the supply-chain model was found to allow systematic mathematical formulae analysis, of cost and time, within the multiple contexts of each subsection encountered. The paper indicates the supply-chain model structure, the mathematics, and considers how product analysis of cost and time can improve the comprehension of product lifecycle management.
Modeling and performance analysis of a closed-loop supply chain using first-order hybrid Petri nets
Imane Outmal
2016-05-01
Full Text Available Green or closed-loop supply chain had been the focus of many manufacturers during the last decade. The application of closed-loop supply chain in today’s manufacturing is not only due to growing environmental concerns and the recognition of its benefits in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption, and meeting a more strict environmental regulations but it also offers economic competitive advantages if appropriately managed. First-order hybrid Petri nets represent a powerful graphical and mathematical formalism to map and analyze the dynamics of complex systems such as closed-loop supply chain networks. This article aims at illustrating the use of first-order hybrid Petri nets to model a closed-loop supply chain network and evaluate its operational, financial, and environmental performance measures under different management policies. Actual data from auto manufacturer in the United States are used to validate network’s performance under both tactical and strategic decision-making, namely, (1 tactical decision—production policies: increase of recovered versus new components and (2 strategic decision—closed-loop supply chain network structure: manufacturer internal recovery process or recovery process done by a third-party collection and recovery center. The work presented in this article is an extension of the use of first-order hybrid Petri nets as a modeling and performance analysis tool from supply chain to closed-loop supply chain. The modularity property of first-order hybrid Petri nets has been used in the modeling process, and the simulation and analysis of the modeled network are done in MATLAB® environment. The results of the experiments depict that first-order hybrid Petri nets are a powerful modeling and analysis formalism for closed-loop supply chain networks and can be further used as an efficient decision-making tool at both tactical and strategic levels. Unlike other researches on modeling supply chain
A Time Efficient Supply Chain Model for an Apparel Company
Gustafson, Annika; Ng, Sze Lit (Philip); von Schmiesing-Korff, Alice
2005-01-01
In most market places today competition has become stronger, not only between single companies but between networks of linked partners, known as supply chains. Consumer demands are changing more often and companies have to react quickly when new trends and consumer requirements appear, thus the competition becomes more time-sensitive. This is especially true in the apparel fashion industry because time is a crucial factor and can make the difference between the success or failure of a company...
MARKOV CHAIN MODELING OF PERFORMANCE DEGRADATION OF PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEM
E. Suresh Kumar; Asis Sarkar; Dhiren kumar Behera
2012-01-01
Modern probability theory studies chance processes for which theknowledge of previous outcomes influence predictions for future experiments. In principle, when a sequence of chance experiments, all of the past outcomes could influence the predictions for the next experiment. In Markov chain type of chance, the outcome of a given experiment can affect the outcome of the next experiment. The system state changes with time and the state X and time t are two random variables. Each of these variab...
A Stochastic Model for Improving Information Security in Supply Chain Systems
Ibrahim Al Kattan; Ahmed Al Nunu; Kassem Saleh
2009-01-01
This article presents a probabilistic security model for supply chain management systems (SCM) in which the basic goals of security (including confidentiality, integrity, availability and accountability, CIAA) are modeled and analyzed. Consequently, the weak points in system security are identified. A stochastic model using measurable values to describe the information system security of a SCM is introduced. Information security is a crucial and integral part of the network of supply chains. ...
Critical behaviour of SU(n) quantum chains and topological non-linear σ-models
Affleck, I.; British Columbia Univ., Vancouver
1988-01-01
The critical behaviour of SU(n) quantum ''spin'' chains, Wess-Zumino-Witten σ-models and grassmanian σ-models at topological angle θ = π (of possible relevance to the quantum Hall effect) is reexamined. It is argued that an additional Z n symmetry is generally necessary to stabilize the massless phase. This symmetry is not present for the σ-models for n>2 and is only present for certain representations of ''spin'' chains. (orig.)
Control of enterprise interfaces for supply chain enterprise modeling
Interrante, L.D. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Macfarlane, J.F. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States). Information and Computing Sciences Div.
1995-04-01
There is a current trend for manufacturing enterprises in a supply chain of a particular industry to join forces in an attempt to promote efficiencies and improve competitive position. Such alliances occur in the context of specific legal and business agreements such that each enterprise retains a majority of its business and manufacturing information as private and shares other information with its trading partners. Shared information may include enterprise demand projections, capacities, finished goods inventories, and aggregate production schedules. Evidence of the trend toward information sharing includes the recent emphases on vendor-managed inventories, quick response, and Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) standards. The increased competition brought on by the global marketplace is driving industries to consider the advantages of trading partner agreements. Aggregate-level forecasts, supply-chain production smoothing, and aggregate-level inventory policies can reduce holding costs, record-keeping overhead, and lead time in product development. The goal of this research is to orchestrate information exchange among trading partners to allow for aggregate-level analysis to enhance supply chain efficiency. The notion of Enterprise Interface Control (EIC) is introduced as a means of accomplishing this end.
Coordination of pricing and co-op advertising models in supply chain: A game theoretic approach
Amin Alirezaei
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Co-op advertising is an interactive relationship between manufacturer and retailer(s supply chain and makes up the majority of marketing budget in many product lines for manufacturers and retailers. This paper considers pricing and co-op advertising decisions in two-stage supply chain and develops a monopolistic retailer and duopolistic retailer's model. In these models, the manufacturer and the retailers play the Nash, Manufacturer-Stackelberg and cooperative game to make optimal pricing and co-op advertising decisions. A bargaining model is utilized for determine the best pricing and co-op advertising scheme for achieving full coordination in the supply chain.
A fuzzy Bi-linear management model in reverse logistic chains
Tadić Danijela
2016-01-01
Full Text Available The management of the electrical and electronic waste (WEEE problem in the uncertain environment has a critical effect on the economy and environmental protection of each region. The considered problem can be stated as a fuzzy non-convex optimization problem with linear objective function and a set of linear and non-linear constraints. The original problem is reformulated by using linear relaxation into a fuzzy linear programming problem. The fuzzy rating of collecting point capacities and fix costs of recycling centers are modeled by triangular fuzzy numbers. The optimal solution of the reformulation model is found by using optimality concept. The proposed model is verified through an illustrative example with real-life data. The obtained results represent an input for future research which should include a good benchmark base for tested reverse logistic chains and their continuous improvement. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 035033: Sustainable development technology and equipment for the recycling of motor vehicles
Quantum Spin Models for Copper Oxide Chains in High-T{sub c} Superconductors
Haugerud, H.
1996-12-31
This doctoral thesis presents some of the most important features of high temperature superconductors, emphasizing the properties of YBa{sub 2}Cu{sub 3}O{sub 6+x} (YBCO). The family of Hubbard-like models is considered and a simplified version of the Emery model derived. This model is applied to fermions on a cyclic chain and solved analytically in the strong correlation limit. For realistic model parameter values the effects of an external magnetic field is investigated by numerical diagonalization. Applying the Emery model to finite cyclic Cu-O chains it is shown that the behaviour of the chains is typical for a 1D Fermi-liquid. The relatively small difference between the values of the local charge and the local magnetic moment indicates that the degree of correlation in this system is very high. The ground state of the Emery model is shown to be antiferromagnetic for half and quarter filling, resembling the ground state of the Heisenberg model. The role of the ensemble of Cu-O chain fragments of the oxygen deficient planes of YBCO is addressed. By applying the Emery model to short Cu-O chains and calculating the free energy of the chains, the parameters of an Ising like lattice gas model are estimated. Several thermodynamical quantities are calculated by applying Monte Carlo technique to the model. The charge transfer from the chains to the planes is shown to correspond to the measured values of T{sub c}. The phase diagram and the average chain length agree well with experiments. The model is also capable of explaining the behaviour of the REBCO series of superconductors, where RE are various rare earth ions. A framework for simultaneously visualizing and computing numerical quantities from lattice simulations is presented and illustrated. 195 refs., 69 figs., 4 tabs.
Anna Ika Deefi
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Numerous studies show that the implementation of Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI benefits all members of the supply chain. This research develops model to prove the benefits obtained from implementing VMI to supplier-buyer partnership analytically. The model considers a two-level supply chain which consists of a single supplier and a single buyer. The analytical model is developed to supply chain inventory with probabilistic demand which follows normal distribution. The model also incorporates lead time as a decision variable and investigates the impacts of inventory management before and after the implementation of the VMI. The result shows that the analytical model has the ability to reduce the supply chain expected cost, improve the service level and increase the inventory replenishment. Numerical examples are given to prove them.
Integration of environmental aspects in modelling and optimisation of water supply chains.
Koleva, Mariya N; Calderón, Andrés J; Zhang, Di; Styan, Craig A; Papageorgiou, Lazaros G
2018-04-26
Climate change becomes increasingly more relevant in the context of water systems planning. Tools are necessary to provide the most economic investment option considering the reliability of the infrastructure from technical and environmental perspectives. Accordingly, in this work, an optimisation approach, formulated as a spatially-explicit multi-period Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model, is proposed for the design of water supply chains at regional and national scales. The optimisation framework encompasses decisions such as installation of new purification plants, capacity expansion, and raw water trading schemes. The objective is to minimise the total cost incurring from capital and operating expenditures. Assessment of available resources for withdrawal is performed based on hydrological balances, governmental rules and sustainable limits. In the light of the increasing importance of reliability of water supply, a second objective, seeking to maximise the reliability of the supply chains, is introduced. The epsilon-constraint method is used as a solution procedure for the multi-objective formulation. Nash bargaining approach is applied to investigate the fair trade-offs between the two objectives and find the Pareto optimality. The models' capability is addressed through a case study based on Australia. The impact of variability in key input parameters is tackled through the implementation of a rigorous global sensitivity analysis (GSA). The findings suggest that variations in water demand can be more disruptive for the water supply chain than scenarios in which rainfalls are reduced. The frameworks can facilitate governmental multi-aspect decision making processes for the adequate and strategic investments of regional water supply infrastructure. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Strategies simulation model for the gas business chain MEGAS
Gonzalez, S.M. de; Uzcategui, R.; Brea, E.; Diaz, R.
1994-01-01
MEGAS is a simulation model representing fundamental parameters of Corpoven's natural gas and NGL production, handling, processing, transportation and distribution systems in the Venezuelan mid-east, as well as its financial implications. Various strategies regarding development, prices, costs, new business opportunities, production scenarios, demand and energy policies can be evaluated through this model in order to determine, after analyzing the economics results, a set of strategies to follow in the mid and long term. MEGAS could be also used to make risk analysis studies, considering that probabilistic parameters and variables like gas quality, production, demand, plant shutdowns and others are to be represented by their distinctive function. It is possible to set up a probabilistic function for each economic indicator or operating variables with an appropriate experiment design. MEGAS is based on a dynamic simulation language, which facilitates both the real system components representation and the main variables statistical data accumulation. It also allows graphical representation of results and the simulation animation. Demand and price forecasts, new projects, costs and capabilities of the systems are some of the model input data. MEGAS should be considered as a tool that eases the strategic planning of the business, making it possible for the Corporation to foresee changes, both in the domestic and international market, to predict how these changes could affect its business affairs and to visualize different return scenarios
Jing-chun Feng
2011-06-01
Full Text Available Recently, the critical chain study has become a hot issue in the project management research field. The construction of the critical chain with multi-resource constraints is a new research subject. According to the system analysis theory and project portfolio theory, this paper discusses the creation of project portfolios based on the similarity principle and gives the definition of priority in multi-resource allocation based on quantitative analysis. A model with multi-resource constraints, which can be applied to the critical chain construction of the A-bid section in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, was proposed. Contrast analysis with the comprehensive treatment construction method and aggressive treatment construction method was carried out. This paper also makes suggestions for further research directions and subjects, which will be useful in improving the theories in relevant research fields.
Applying Fuzzy Multiobjective Integrated Logistics Model to Green Supply Chain Problems
Chui-Yu Chiu
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The aim of this paper is attempting to explore the optimal way of supply chain management within the domain of environmental responsibility and concerns. The background of this research involves the issue of green supply chain management (GSCM and the concept of the multiobjective integrated logistics model. More specifically, in this paper, we suggest the fuzzy multiobjective integrated logistics model with the transportation cost and demand fuzziness to solve green supply chain problems in the uncertain environment which is illustrated via the detailed numerical example. Results and the sensitivity analysis of the numerical example indicate that when the governmental subsidy value increased the profits of the reverse chain also increased. The finding shows that the governmental subsidy policy could remain of significant influence for used-product reverse logistics chain.
Mafakheri, Fereshteh; Nasiri, Fuzhan
2014-01-01
Reducing dependency on fossil fuels and mitigating their environmental impacts are among the most promising aspects of utilizing renewable energy sources. The availability of various biomass resources has made it an appealing source of renewable energy. Given the variability of supply and sources of biomass, supply chains play an important role in the efficient provisioning of biomass resources for energy production. This paper provides a comprehensive review and classification of the excising literature in modeling of biomass supply chain operations while linking them to the wider strategic challenges and issues with the design, planning and management of biomass supply chains. On that basis, we will present an analysis of the existing gaps and the potential future directions for research in modeling of biomass supply chain operations. - Highlights: • An extensive review of biomass supply chain operations management models presented in the literature is provided. • The models are classified in line with biomass supply chain activities from harvesting to conversion. • The issues surrounding biomass supply chains are investigated manifesting the need to novel modeling approaches. • Our gap analysis has identified a number of existing shortcomings and opportunities for future research
CASCADER: An M-chain gas-phase radionuclide transport and fate model
Lindstrom, F.T.; Cawlfield, D.E.; Emer, D.F.; Shott, G.J.; Donahue, M.E.
1993-02-01
Chemicals and radionuclides move either in the gas-phase, liquid-phase, or both phases in soils. They may be acted upon by either biological or abiotic processes through advection and diffusion. Furthermore, parent and daughter radionuclides may decay as they are transported in the soil. CASCADER is a gas-phase, one-space dimensional transport and fate model for M-chain radionuclides in very dry homogeneous or heterogeneous soil. This model contains barometric pressure-induced advection and diffusion together with linear irreversible and linear reversible sorption for each radionuclide. The advection velocity is derived from an embedded air-pumping submodel. The air-pumping submodel is based on an assumption of isothermal conditions, which is driven by barometric pressure. CASCADER allows the concentration of source radionuclides to decay via the classical Bateman chain of simple, first-order kinetic processes. The transported radionuclides also decay via first-order processes while in the soil. A mass conserving, flux-type inlet and exit set of boundary conditions are used. The user must supply the initial distribution for the parent radionuclide in the soil. The initial daughter distribution is found using equilibrium rules. The model is user friendly as it uses a prompt-driven, free-form input. The code is ANSI standard Fortran 77
CASCADER: An m-chain gas-phase radionuclide transport and fate model
Lindstrom, F.T.; Cawlfield, D.E.; Emer, D.F.; Shott, G.J.; Donahue, M.E.
1992-06-01
Chemicals and radionuclides move either in the gas-phase, liquid-phase, or both phases in soils. They may be acted upon by either biological or abiotic processes as they are advected and/or dispersed. Furthermore, parent and daughter radionuclides may decay as they are transported in the soil. CASCADER is a gas-phase, one space dimensional transport and fate model for an m-chain of radionuclides in very dry soil. This model contains barometric pressure-induced advection and diffusion together with linear irreversible and linear reversible sorption for each radionuclide. The advocation velocity is derived from an embedded air-pumping submodel. The airpumping submodel is based on an assumption of isothermal conditions and is barometric pressure driven. CASCADER allows the concentration of source radionuclides to decay via the classical Bateman chain of simple, first-order kinetic processes. The transported radionuclides also decay via first-order processes while in the soil. A mass conserving, flux-type inlet and exit set of boundary conditions is used. The user must supply the initial distribution for the parent radionuclide in the soil. The initial daughter distribution is found using equilibrium rules. The model is user friendly as it uses a prompt-driven, free-form input. The code is ANSI standard Fortran 77
Winnie Septiani
2015-05-01
risiko dalam ukuran waktu, biaya dan kualitas. Tahap pertama dimulai dengan menganalisis eksposur risiko yang tidak terhindarkan yang meliputi analisis karakteristik lingkungan dan konﬁgurasi serta karakteristik rantai pasok agroindustri susu. Tahap kedua adalah menganalisis eksposure risiko yang dapat dihindari. Tahap ketiga adalah mengubah eksposur risiko ke dalam ukuran performansi waktu, biaya dan kualitas. Pada tahap kedua dihasilkan magnitude risiko, yang merupakan fungsi dari nilai probabilitas dan severity yang dilakukan dengan menggunakan Fuzzy Assosiated Memories (FAMs.Dengan model ini diharapkan dampak kerusakan dari risiko yang muncul pada rantai pasok agroindustri susu dapat terukur dan dapat diminimasi sehingga dapat meningkatkan ketangguhan (robustnes dari rantai pasok. Kata kunci: Performansi, risiko, fuzzy, rantai pasok, agroindustri susu
A study on decision-making of food supply chain based on big data
Ji, Guojun; Hu, Limei; Tan, Kim Hua
2017-01-01
As more and more companies have captured and analyzed huge volumes of data to improve the performance of supply chain, this paper develops a big data harvest model that uses big data as inputs to make more informed production decisions in the food supply chain. By introducing a method of Bayesian network, this paper integrates sample data and finds a cause-and-effect between data to predict market demand. Then the deduction graph model that translates products demand into processes and divide...
Schofield, Jeremy; Bayat, Hanif
2014-09-07
A Markov state model of the dynamics of a protein-like chain immersed in an implicit hard sphere solvent is derived from first principles for a system of monomers that interact via discontinuous potentials designed to account for local structure and bonding in a coarse-grained sense. The model is based on the assumption that the implicit solvent interacts on a fast time scale with the monomers of the chain compared to the time scale for structural rearrangements of the chain and provides sufficient friction so that the motion of monomers is governed by the Smoluchowski equation. A microscopic theory for the dynamics of the system is developed that reduces to a Markovian model of the kinetics under well-defined conditions. Microscopic expressions for the rate constants that appear in the Markov state model are analyzed and expressed in terms of a temperature-dependent linear combination of escape rates that themselves are independent of temperature. Excellent agreement is demonstrated between the theoretical predictions of the escape rates and those obtained through simulation of a stochastic model of the dynamics of bond formation. Finally, the Markov model is studied by analyzing the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the matrix of transition rates, and the equilibration process for a simple helix-forming system from an ensemble of initially extended configurations to mainly folded configurations is investigated as a function of temperature for a number of different chain lengths. For short chains, the relaxation is primarily single-exponential and becomes independent of temperature in the low-temperature regime. The profile is more complicated for longer chains, where multi-exponential relaxation behavior is seen at intermediate temperatures followed by a low temperature regime in which the folding becomes rapid and single exponential. It is demonstrated that the behavior of the equilibration profile as the temperature is lowered can be understood in terms of the
A stochastic Markov chain model to describe lung cancer growth and metastasis.
Paul K Newton
Full Text Available A stochastic Markov chain model for metastatic progression is developed for primary lung cancer based on a network construction of metastatic sites with dynamics modeled as an ensemble of random walkers on the network. We calculate a transition matrix, with entries (transition probabilities interpreted as random variables, and use it to construct a circular bi-directional network of primary and metastatic locations based on postmortem tissue analysis of 3827 autopsies on untreated patients documenting all primary tumor locations and metastatic sites from this population. The resulting 50 potential metastatic sites are connected by directed edges with distributed weightings, where the site connections and weightings are obtained by calculating the entries of an ensemble of transition matrices so that the steady-state distribution obtained from the long-time limit of the Markov chain dynamical system corresponds to the ensemble metastatic distribution obtained from the autopsy data set. We condition our search for a transition matrix on an initial distribution of metastatic tumors obtained from the data set. Through an iterative numerical search procedure, we adjust the entries of a sequence of approximations until a transition matrix with the correct steady-state is found (up to a numerical threshold. Since this constrained linear optimization problem is underdetermined, we characterize the statistical variance of the ensemble of transition matrices calculated using the means and variances of their singular value distributions as a diagnostic tool. We interpret the ensemble averaged transition probabilities as (approximately normally distributed random variables. The model allows us to simulate and quantify disease progression pathways and timescales of progression from the lung position to other sites and we highlight several key findings based on the model.
A stochastic Markov chain model to describe lung cancer growth and metastasis.
Newton, Paul K; Mason, Jeremy; Bethel, Kelly; Bazhenova, Lyudmila A; Nieva, Jorge; Kuhn, Peter
2012-01-01
A stochastic Markov chain model for metastatic progression is developed for primary lung cancer based on a network construction of metastatic sites with dynamics modeled as an ensemble of random walkers on the network. We calculate a transition matrix, with entries (transition probabilities) interpreted as random variables, and use it to construct a circular bi-directional network of primary and metastatic locations based on postmortem tissue analysis of 3827 autopsies on untreated patients documenting all primary tumor locations and metastatic sites from this population. The resulting 50 potential metastatic sites are connected by directed edges with distributed weightings, where the site connections and weightings are obtained by calculating the entries of an ensemble of transition matrices so that the steady-state distribution obtained from the long-time limit of the Markov chain dynamical system corresponds to the ensemble metastatic distribution obtained from the autopsy data set. We condition our search for a transition matrix on an initial distribution of metastatic tumors obtained from the data set. Through an iterative numerical search procedure, we adjust the entries of a sequence of approximations until a transition matrix with the correct steady-state is found (up to a numerical threshold). Since this constrained linear optimization problem is underdetermined, we characterize the statistical variance of the ensemble of transition matrices calculated using the means and variances of their singular value distributions as a diagnostic tool. We interpret the ensemble averaged transition probabilities as (approximately) normally distributed random variables. The model allows us to simulate and quantify disease progression pathways and timescales of progression from the lung position to other sites and we highlight several key findings based on the model.
SCRL-Model for Human Space Flight Operations Enterprise Supply Chain
Tucker, Brian; Paxton, Joseph
2010-01-01
This paper will present a Supply Chain Readiness Level (SCRL) model that can be used to evaluate and configure adaptable and sustainable program and mission supply chains at an enterprise level. It will also show that using SCRL in conjunction with Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs), Manufacturing Readiness Levels (MRLs) and National Aeronautics Space Administrations (NASA s) Project Lifecycle Process will provide a more complete means of developing and evaluating a robust sustainable supply chain that encompasses the entire product, system and mission lifecycle. In addition, it will be shown that by implementing the SCRL model, NASA can additionally define supplier requirements to enable effective supply chain management (SCM). Developing and evaluating overall supply chain readiness for any product, system and mission lifecycle is critical for mission success. Readiness levels are presently being used to evaluate the maturity of technology and manufacturing capability during development and deployment phases of products and systems. For example, TRLs are used to support the assessment of the maturity of a particular technology and compare maturity of different types of technologies. MRLs are designed to assess the maturity and risk of a given technology from a manufacturing perspective. In addition, when these measurement systems are used collectively they can offer a more comprehensive view of the maturity of the system. While some aspects of the supply chain and supply chain planning are considered in these familiar metric systems, certain characteristics of an effective supply chain, when evaluated in more detail, will provide an improved insight into the readiness and risk throughout the supply chain. Therefore, a system that concentrates particularly on supply chain attributes is required to better assess enterprise supply chain readiness.
Qingyou Yan; Chao Qin; Mingjian Nie; Le Yang
2018-01-01
Due to the deregulation of retail electricity market, consumers can choose retail electric suppliers freely, and market entities are facing fierce competition because of the increasing number of new entrants. Under these circumstances, forecasting the changes in all market entities, when market share stabilized, is important for suppliers making marketing decisions. In this paper, a market share forecasting model was established based on Markov chain, and a system dynamics model was construct...
Technical manual for basic version of the Markov chain nest productivity model (MCnest)
The Markov Chain Nest Productivity Model (or MCnest) integrates existing toxicity information from three standardized avian toxicity tests with information on species life history and the timing of pesticide applications relative to the timing of avian breeding seasons to quantit...
User’s manual for basic version of MCnest Markov chain nest productivity model
The Markov Chain Nest Productivity Model (or MCnest) integrates existing toxicity information from three standardized avian toxicity tests with information on species life history and the timing of pesticide applications relative to the timing of avian breeding seasons to quantit...
Modelling inter-supply chain competition with resource limitation and demand disruption
Chen, Zhaobo; Teng, Chunxian; Zhang, Ding; Sun, Jiayi
2016-05-01
This paper proposes a comprehensive model for studying supply chain versus supply chain competition with resource limitation and demand disruption. We assume that there are supply chains with heterogeneous supply network structures that compete at multiple demand markets. Each supply chain is comprised of internal and external firms. The internal firms are coordinated in production and distribution and share some common but limited resources within the supply chain, whereas the external firms are independent and do not share the internal resources. The supply chain managers strive to develop optimal strategies in terms of production level and resource allocation in maximising their profit while facing competition at the end market. The Cournot-Nash equilibrium of this inter-supply chain competition is formulated as a variational inequality problem. We further study the case when there is demand disruption in the plan-execution phase. In such a case, the managers need to revise their planned strategy in order to maximise their profit with the new demand under disruption and minimise the cost of change. We present a bi-criteria decision-making model for supply chain managers and develop the optimal conditions in equilibrium, which again can be formulated by another variational inequality problem. Numerical examples are presented for illustrative purpose.
MEASUREMENT FOR ACCEPTANCE OF SUPPLY CHAIN SIMULATOR APPLICATION USING TECHNOLOGY ACCEPTANCE MODEL
Mulyati E.
2018-03-01
Full Text Available The aim of this research for was to measure the user acceptance of simulator application which was built as a tool for student in learning of supply chain, particularly in bullwhip effect problem. The measurements used for the acceptance of supply chain simulator application in this research was the Technology Acceptance Model from 162 samples which were analyzed with Confirmatory Factor Analysis and Structural Equation Modelling. The result of this research indicated that the user acceptance (shown by customer participation of supply chain simulator was directly influence by perceived usefulness of supply chain simulator application used (positive and significant; the user acceptance of supply chain simulator was indirectly influenced by perceived ease of use in using supply chain simulator application (positive but not significant; the user acceptance of supply chain simulator was indirectly influenced by perceived enjoyment when the supply chain simulator application was used. The research would give a better understanding about a bullwhip effect and better experience for students, which would not be obtained through conventional learning, when the tools were not used.
Basic model for the prediction of 137Cs concentration in the organisms of detritus food chain
Tateda, Yuzuru
1997-01-01
In order to predict 137 Cs concentrations in marine organisms for monitoring, a basic model for the prediction of nuclide levels in marine organisms of detritus food chain was studied. The equilibrated values of ( 137 Cs level in organism)/( 137 Cs level in seawater) derived from calculation agreed with the observed data, indicating validity of modeling conditions. The result of simulation by this basic model showed the following conclusions. 1) ''Ecological half-life'' of 137 Cs in organisms of food chain were 35 and 130 days for detritus feeder and benthic teleosts, respectively, indicating that there was no difference of the ecological half lives in organisms between in detritus food chain and in other food chains. 2) The 137 Cs concentration in organisms showed a peak at 18 and 100 days in detritus and detritus feeder, respectively, after the introduction of 137 Cs into environmental seawater. Their concentration ratios to 137 Cs peak level in seawater were within a range of 2.7-3.8, indicating insignificant difference in the response to 137 Cs change in seawater between in the organisms of detritus food chain and of other food chain. 3) The basic model studies makes it available that the prediction of 137 Cs level in organisms of food chain can be simulated in coastal ecosystem. (author)
Green tourism supply chain management based on life cycle impact assessment
Alexandra V. Michailidou
2016-06-01
Full Text Available Tourism is one of the most dynamic and far-reaching economic sectors in the world. Numerous different and complex activities are involved in the efficient development of tourism. These activities interrelate economic, environmental, social, cultural and political dimensions in the overall supply chain. However, apart from its key role as a driver of socio-economic progress, tourism is responsible for environmental deterioration, not only in areas popular with tourists, but also by enhancing climate change globally. This paper presents a robust method based on the Green Tourism Supply Chain Management (GTSCM concept, which can be used to estimate the effect on the environment that can be attributed to each link of the supply chain. The overall approach is based on Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA theory and corresponding models. A case study to demonstrate the applicability of this approach is presented for two large seaside hotels located in Chalkidiki, Greece. Chalkidiki is the most popular tourist destination in Northern Greece. A LCIA questionnaire was developed and input data for the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA obtained from the hotel managers. For this LCA SimaPro 8 software was used. The LCIA methods chosen were Eco-indicator 99 and CML 2001. The effect on fossil fuel consumption of both hotels due to their use of local transport and electricity was considerable but less than that needed for transporting the tourists by air to Chalkidiki. This paper clearly indicates that LCA and Life Cycle Thinking (LCT can form the basis for promoting GTSCM in the tourism industry.
Scheduling with Group Dynamics: a Multi-Robot Task Allocation Algorithm based on Vacancy Chains
Dahl, Torbjorn S; Mataric, Maja J; Sukhatme, Gaurav S
2002-01-01
.... We present a multi-robot task allocation algorithm that is sensitive to group dynamics. Our algorithm is based on vacancy chains, a resource distribution process common in human and animal societies...
Greenhouse gas emission inventory based on full energy chain analysis
Dones, R.; Hirschberg, S.; Knoepfel, I.
1996-01-01
Methodology, characteristics, features and results obtained for greenhouse gases within the recent Swiss LCA study 'Environmental Life-Cycle Inventories of Energy Systems' are presented. The focus of the study is on existing average Full Energy Chains (FENCHs) in the electricity generation mixes in Europe and in Switzerland. The systems, including coal (hard coal and lignite), oil, natural gas, nuclear and hydro, are discussed one by one as well as part of the electricity mixes. Photovoltaic systems are covered separately since they are not included in the electricity mixes. A sensitivity analysis on methane leakage during long-range transport via pipeline is shown. Whilst within the current study emissions are not attributed to specific countries, the main sectors contributing to the total GHGs emissions calculated for the various FENCHs are specified. (author). 10 refs, 10 figs, 9 tabs
Greenhouse gas emission inventory based on full energy chain analysis
Dones, R; Hirschberg, S [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland); Knoepfel, I [Federal Inst. of Technology Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland)
1996-07-01
Methodology, characteristics, features and results obtained for greenhouse gases within the recent Swiss LCA study `Environmental Life-Cycle Inventories of Energy Systems` are presented. The focus of the study is on existing average Full Energy Chains (FENCHs) in the electricity generation mixes in Europe and in Switzerland. The systems, including coal (hard coal and lignite), oil, natural gas, nuclear and hydro, are discussed one by one as well as part of the electricity mixes. Photovoltaic systems are covered separately since they are not included in the electricity mixes. A sensitivity analysis on methane leakage during long-range transport via pipeline is shown. Whilst within the current study emissions are not attributed to specific countries, the main sectors contributing to the total GHGs emissions calculated for the various FENCHs are specified. (author). 10 refs, 10 figs, 9 tabs.
On the dynamics of chain systems. [applications in manipulator and human body models
Huston, R. L.; Passerello, C. E.
1974-01-01
A computer-oriented method for obtaining dynamical equations of motion for chain systems is presented. A chain system is defined as an arbitrarily assembled set of rigid bodies such that adjoining bodies have at least one common point and such that closed loops are not formed. The equations of motion are developed through the use of Lagrange's form of d'Alembert's principle. The method and procedure is illustrated with an elementary study of a tripod space manipulator. The method is designed for application with systems such as human body models, chains and cables, and dynamic finite-segment models.
A roller chain drive model including contact with guide-bars
Pedersen, Sine Leergaard; Hansen, John Michael; Ambrósio, J. A. C.
2004-01-01
A model of a roller chain drive is developed and applied to the simulation and analysis of roller chain drives of large marine diesel engines. The model includes the impact with guide-bars that are the motion delimiter components on the chain strands between the sprockets. The main components...... and the sprocket centre, i.e. a constraint is added when such distance is less than the pitch radius. The unilateral kinematic constraint is removed when its associated constraint reaction force, applied on the roller, is in the direction of the root of the sprocket teeth. In order to improve the numerical...
Superstring sigma models from spin chains: the SU(1,1 vertical bar 1) case
Bellucci, S.; Casteill, P.-Y.; Morales, J.F.
2005-01-01
We derive the coherent state representation of the integrable spin chain Hamiltonian with non-compact supersymmetry group G=SU(1,1 vertical bar 1). By passing to the continuous limit, we find a spin chain sigma model describing a string moving on the supercoset G/H, H being the stabilizer group. The action is written in a manifestly G-invariant form in terms of the Cartan forms and the string coordinates in the supercoset. The spin chain sigma model is shown to agree with that following from the Green-Schwarz action describing two-charged string spinning on AdS 5 xS 5
Wang Daoping
2017-01-01
Full Text Available This paper studies the coordination of supply chain in the context of carbon emissions trading mechanism, which considering the competition between retailers. Centralized and decentralized supply chain models were constructed to discuss the price of product, to avoid the losses of profit from the decentralized decision-making, the revenue-sharing contract was introduced to coordinate the supply chain. Research shows that the carbon emissions trading reduce emissions effectively, but the higher price of carbon emissions trading cut down the total profit of supply chain; The competition between retailers upgrades the supply chain members’ profit; Coordination was achieved by introducing the revenue-sharing contract. Finally, numerical example was given to illustrate the validity of the revenue-sharing contract, and the sensitivity analysis of parameters such as the price of the emissions trading and the retailers’ competition were presented.
Uncovering and testing the fuzzy clusters based on lumped Markov chain in complex network.
Jing, Fan; Jianbin, Xie; Jinlong, Wang; Jinshuai, Qu
2013-01-01
Identifying clusters, namely groups of nodes with comparatively strong internal connectivity, is a fundamental task for deeply understanding the structure and function of a network. By means of a lumped Markov chain model of a random walker, we propose two novel ways of inferring the lumped markov transition matrix. Furthermore, some useful results are proposed based on the analysis of the properties of the lumped Markov process. To find the best partition of complex networks, a novel framework including two algorithms for network partition based on the optimal lumped Markovian dynamics is derived to solve this problem. The algorithms are constructed to minimize the objective function under this framework. It is demonstrated by the simulation experiments that our algorithms can efficiently determine the probabilities with which a node belongs to different clusters during the learning process and naturally supports the fuzzy partition. Moreover, they are successfully applied to real-world network, including the social interactions between members of a karate club.
NCACO-score: An effective main-chain dependent scoring function for structure modeling
Dong Xiaoxi
2011-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Development of effective scoring functions is a critical component to the success of protein structure modeling. Previously, many efforts have been dedicated to the development of scoring functions. Despite these efforts, development of an effective scoring function that can achieve both good accuracy and fast speed still presents a grand challenge. Results Based on a coarse-grained representation of a protein structure by using only four main-chain atoms: N, Cα, C and O, we develop a knowledge-based scoring function, called NCACO-score, that integrates different structural information to rapidly model protein structure from sequence. In testing on the Decoys'R'Us sets, we found that NCACO-score can effectively recognize native conformers from their decoys. Furthermore, we demonstrate that NCACO-score can effectively guide fragment assembly for protein structure prediction, which has achieved a good performance in building the structure models for hard targets from CASP8 in terms of both accuracy and speed. Conclusions Although NCACO-score is developed based on a coarse-grained model, it is able to discriminate native conformers from decoy conformers with high accuracy. NCACO is a very effective scoring function for structure modeling.
The Effect of Modeling Qualities, Tones and Gages in Ceramic Supply Chains' Master Planning
Isabel MUNDI
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Ceramic production processes are characterized by providing quantities of the same finished goods that differ in qualities, tones and gages. This aspect becomes a problem for ceramic supply chains (SCs that should promise and serve customer orders with homogeneous quantities of the same finished good. In this paper a mathematical programming model for the cen-tralized master planning of ceramic SC is proposed. Inputs to the master plan include demand forecasts in terms of customer order classes based on their order size and splitting percentages of a lot into homogeneous sub-lots. Then, the master plan defines the size and loading of lots to production lines and their distribution with the aim of maximizing the number of customer orders fulfilled with homogeneous quantities in the most efficient manner for the SC. Finally, the effect of modeling qualities, tones and gages in master planning is assessed.
Klous, Miriam; Klous, Sander
2010-07-01
The aim of skin-marker-based motion analysis is to reconstruct the motion of a kinematical model from noisy measured motion of skin markers. Existing kinematic models for reconstruction of chains of segments can be divided into two categories: analytical methods that do not take joint constraints into account and numerical global optimization methods that do take joint constraints into account but require numerical optimization of a large number of degrees of freedom, especially when the number of segments increases. In this study, a new and largely analytical method for a chain of rigid bodies is presented, interconnected in spherical joints (chain-method). In this method, the number of generalized coordinates to be determined through numerical optimization is three, irrespective of the number of segments. This new method is compared with the analytical method of Veldpaus et al. [1988, "A Least-Squares Algorithm for the Equiform Transformation From Spatial Marker Co-Ordinates," J. Biomech., 21, pp. 45-54] (Veldpaus-method, a method of the first category) and the numerical global optimization method of Lu and O'Connor [1999, "Bone Position Estimation From Skin-Marker Co-Ordinates Using Global Optimization With Joint Constraints," J. Biomech., 32, pp. 129-134] (Lu-method, a method of the second category) regarding the effects of continuous noise simulating skin movement artifacts and regarding systematic errors in joint constraints. The study is based on simulated data to allow a comparison of the results of the different algorithms with true (noise- and error-free) marker locations. Results indicate a clear trend that accuracy for the chain-method is higher than the Veldpaus-method and similar to the Lu-method. Because large parts of the equations in the chain-method can be solved analytically, the speed of convergence in this method is substantially higher than in the Lu-method. With only three segments, the average number of required iterations with the chain
System Dynamics Modeling on Integrated Supply Chain Management of Potato Agribusiness
Lukman Hakim
2017-12-01
Full Text Available The objectives of this study is to design a model of integrated supply chain management of potato agribusiness in an effort to increase revenue and bargaining position of farmers in Aceh Province. The method applied to achieve these objectives was the methodology of system dynamics. Formulation of the models was conducted by using Vensim DSS Software, followed by simulation. The result of this study showed the role of five major scenarios which were important to actualize the integrated supply chain management of potato agribusiness in Aceh Province, those were: scenario 1, increasing the productive land area, resulting in the increasing of production volume; scenario 2, using the certified potato seed named “umbi G2”, generating the higher level of production; scenario 3, providing the certified potato seed based on the needs, showing that the quantity of production increased; scenario 4, shortening the payment receivables interval of farmers and cooperatives, which showing the increasing of cash amount; scenario 5, doing certification to the potato from synergistic partnerships farmers, showing the increasing of acceptance, profitability, R/C, and cash.
Parameter sensitivity analysis of a lumped-parameter model of a chain of lymphangions in series.
Jamalian, Samira; Bertram, Christopher D; Richardson, William J; Moore, James E
2013-12-01
Any disruption of the lymphatic system due to trauma or injury can lead to edema. There is no effective cure for lymphedema, partly because predictive knowledge of lymphatic system reactions to interventions is lacking. A well-developed model of the system could greatly improve our understanding of its function. Lymphangions, defined as the vessel segment between two valves, are the individual pumping units. Based on our previous lumped-parameter model of a chain of lymphangions, this study aimed to identify the parameters that affect the system output the most using a sensitivity analysis. The system was highly sensitive to minimum valve resistance, such that variations in this parameter caused an order-of-magnitude change in time-average flow rate for certain values of imposed pressure difference. Average flow rate doubled when contraction frequency was increased within its physiological range. Optimum lymphangion length was found to be some 13-14.5 diameters. A peak of time-average flow rate occurred when transmural pressure was such that the pressure-diameter loop for active contractions was centered near maximum passive vessel compliance. Increasing the number of lymphangions in the chain improved the pumping in the presence of larger adverse pressure differences. For a given pressure difference, the optimal number of lymphangions increased with the total vessel length. These results indicate that further experiments to estimate valve resistance more accurately are necessary. The existence of an optimal value of transmural pressure may provide additional guidelines for increasing pumping in areas affected by edema.
2010-01-01
The necessity to construct the network management information system of 3PLs agricultural supply chain is analyzed,showing that 3PLs can improve the overall competitive advantage of agricultural supply chain.3PLs changes the homogeneity management into specialized management of logistics service and achieves the alliance of the subjects at different nodes of agricultural products supply chain.Network management information system structure of agricultural products supply chain based on 3PLs is constructed,including the four layers (the network communication layer,the hardware and software environment layer,the database layer,and the application layer) and 7 function modules (centralized control,transportation process management,material and vehicle scheduling,customer relationship,storage management,customer inquiry,and financial management).Framework for the network management information system of agricultural products supply chain based on 3PLs is put forward.The management of 3PLs mainly includes purchasing management,supplier relationship management,planning management,customer relationship management,storage management and distribution management.Thus,a management system of internal and external integrated agricultural enterprises is obtained.The network management information system of agricultural products supply chain based on 3PLs has realized the effective sharing of enterprise information of agricultural products supply chain at different nodes,establishing a long-term partnership revolving around the 3PLs core enterprise,as well as a supply chain with stable relationship based on the supply chain network system,so as to improve the circulation efficiency of agricultural products,and to explore the sales market for agricultural products.
Effect of side chain position on solar cell performance in cyclopentadithiophene-based copolymers
Lee, Sang Kyu; Seo, Jung Hwa; Cho, Nam Sung; Cho, Shinuk
2012-01-01
The photovoltaic properties of a series of low band-gap conjugated copolymers, in which alkyl side chains were substituted at various positions, were investigated using donor–acceptor (D–A) conjugated copolymers consisting of a cyclopentadithiophene derivative and dithienyl-benzothiadiazole. The base polymer, which has no alkyl side chains, yielded promising power conversion efficiency of 3.8%. Polymers with alkyl side chains, however, exhibited significantly decreased performance. In addition, the effects of processing additive became negligible. The results indicate that substituted side chains, which were introduced to improve solubility, critically affected the optical and electronic properties of D–A conjugated copolymers. Furthermore, the position of the side chain was also very important for controlling the morphological properties of the D–A conjugated copolymers. - Highlights: ► Effect of side chain position on solar cell performance was investigated. ► Polymer without alkyl chains yielded promising power conversion efficiency of 3.8%. ► Position of side chains critically affected the optical and electronic properties.
Source term evaluation model for high-level radioactive waste repository with decay chain build-up.
Chopra, Manish; Sunny, Faby; Oza, R B
2016-09-18
A source term model based on two-component leach flux concept is developed for a high-level radioactive waste repository. The long-lived radionuclides associated with high-level waste may give rise to the build-up of activity because of radioactive decay chains. The ingrowths of progeny are incorporated in the model using Bateman decay chain build-up equations. The model is applied to different radionuclides present in the high-level radioactive waste, which form a part of decay chains (4n to 4n + 3 series), and the activity of the parent and daughter radionuclides leaching out of the waste matrix is estimated. Two cases are considered: one when only parent is present initially in the waste and another where daughters are also initially present in the waste matrix. The incorporation of in situ production of daughter radionuclides in the source is important to carry out realistic estimates. It is shown that the inclusion of decay chain build-up is essential to avoid underestimation of the radiological impact assessment of the repository. The model can be a useful tool for evaluating the source term of the radionuclide transport models used for the radiological impact assessment of high-level radioactive waste repositories.
Development of S-ARIMA Model for Forecasting Demand in a Beverage Supply Chain
Mircetic, Dejan; Nikolicic, Svetlana; Maslaric, Marinko; Ralevic, Nebojsa; Debelic, Borna
2016-11-01
Demand forecasting is one of the key activities in planning the freight flows in supply chains, and accordingly it is essential for planning and scheduling of logistic activities within observed supply chain. Accurate demand forecasting models directly influence the decrease of logistics costs, since they provide an assessment of customer demand. Customer demand is a key component for planning all logistic processes in supply chain, and therefore determining levels of customer demand is of great interest for supply chain managers. In this paper we deal with exactly this kind of problem, and we develop the seasonal Autoregressive IntegratedMoving Average (SARIMA) model for forecasting demand patterns of a major product of an observed beverage company. The model is easy to understand, flexible to use and appropriate for assisting the expert in decision making process about consumer demand in particular periods.
Superconducting, magnetic, and charge correlations in the doped two-chain Hubbard model
Asai, Y.
1995-01-01
We have studied the superconducting, magnetic, and charge correlation functions and the spin excitation spectrum in the doped two-chain Hubbard model by projector Monte Carlo and Lanczos diagonalization methods. The exponent of the interchain singlet superconducting correlation function, γ, is found to be close to 2.0 as long as two distinct noninteracting bands cross the Fermi level. Magnetic and charge correlation functions decay more rapidly than or as fast as the interchain singlet superconducting correlation function along the chains. The superconducting correlation in the doped two-chain Hubbard model is the most long-range correlation studied here. Implications of the results for the possible universality class of the doped two-chain Hubbard model are discussed
Chemical models of chains electron transfer in hydroxylating ferment systems
Akhrem, A.A.; Kiselev, P.A.; Metelitsa, D.I.
1977-01-01
The rate constants are measured of consumption of nicotineamidedinucleotide (NAD-N) during its oxidation by molecular oxygen with the participation of Ti 4+ , Sn 4+ , Cu 2+ , Fe 3+ , VO 2+ , and Ce 4+ ions in mixtures of acetonitrile with water and of dioxane with water taken in a volume ratio of 1:1 (46 deg C). The kinetics of oxidation of NAD-N with the participation of Ti 4+ at 37 deg C in a water-acetonitrile medium is studied in detail. The hydroxylating capacity of the system NAD-N - Ti 4+ - O 2 with respect to naphthalene is proved. The reaction mechanism and its relationship with the microsomal chains of electron transport are discussed
Firm Based Trade Models and Turkish Economy
Nilüfer ARGIN
2015-12-01
Full Text Available Among all international trade models, only The Firm Based Trade Models explains firm’s action and behavior in the world trade. The Firm Based Trade Models focuses on the trade behavior of individual firms that actually make intra industry trade. Firm Based Trade Models can explain globalization process truly. These approaches include multinational cooperation, supply chain and outsourcing also. Our paper aims to explain and analyze Turkish export with Firm Based Trade Models’ context. We use UNCTAD data on exports by SITC Rev 3 categorization to explain total export and 255 products and calculate intensive-extensive margins of Turkish firms.
Mayzelis, Z.A.; Apostolov, S.S.; Melnyk, S.S.; Usatenko, O.V.; Yampol'skii, V.A.
2007-01-01
A theory of symbolic dynamic systems with long-range correlations based on the consideration of the binary N-step Markov chains developed earlier in Phys Rev Lett 2003;90:110601 is generalized to the biased case (non-equal numbers of zeros and unities in the chain). In the model, the conditional probability that the ith symbol in the chain equals zero (or unity) is a linear function of the number of unities (zeros) among the preceding N symbols. The correlation and distribution functions as well as the variance of number of symbols in the words of arbitrary length L are obtained analytically and verified by numerical simulations. A self-similarity of the studied stochastic process is revealed and the similarity group transformation of the chain parameters is presented. The diffusion Fokker-Planck equation governing the distribution function of the L-words is explored. If the persistent correlations are not extremely strong, the distribution function is shown to be the Gaussian with the variance being nonlinearly dependent on L. An equation connecting the memory and correlation function of the additive Markov chain is presented. This equation allows reconstructing a memory function using a correlation function of the system. Effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method is demonstrated by simple model examples. Memory functions of concrete coarse-grained literary texts are found and their universal power-law behavior at long distances is revealed
Mayzelis, Z.A. [Department of Physics, Kharkov National University, 4 Svoboda Sq., Kharkov 61077 (Ukraine); Apostolov, S.S. [Department of Physics, Kharkov National University, 4 Svoboda Sq., Kharkov 61077 (Ukraine); Melnyk, S.S. [A. Ya. Usikov Institute for Radiophysics and Electronics, Ukrainian Academy of Science, 12 Proskura Street, 61085 Kharkov (Ukraine); Usatenko, O.V. [A. Ya. Usikov Institute for Radiophysics and Electronics, Ukrainian Academy of Science, 12 Proskura Street, 61085 Kharkov (Ukraine)]. E-mail: usatenko@ire.kharkov.ua; Yampol' skii, V.A. [A. Ya. Usikov Institute for Radiophysics and Electronics, Ukrainian Academy of Science, 12 Proskura Street, 61085 Kharkov (Ukraine)
2007-10-15
A theory of symbolic dynamic systems with long-range correlations based on the consideration of the binary N-step Markov chains developed earlier in Phys Rev Lett 2003;90:110601 is generalized to the biased case (non-equal numbers of zeros and unities in the chain). In the model, the conditional probability that the ith symbol in the chain equals zero (or unity) is a linear function of the number of unities (zeros) among the preceding N symbols. The correlation and distribution functions as well as the variance of number of symbols in the words of arbitrary length L are obtained analytically and verified by numerical simulations. A self-similarity of the studied stochastic process is revealed and the similarity group transformation of the chain parameters is presented. The diffusion Fokker-Planck equation governing the distribution function of the L-words is explored. If the persistent correlations are not extremely strong, the distribution function is shown to be the Gaussian with the variance being nonlinearly dependent on L. An equation connecting the memory and correlation function of the additive Markov chain is presented. This equation allows reconstructing a memory function using a correlation function of the system. Effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method is demonstrated by simple model examples. Memory functions of concrete coarse-grained literary texts are found and their universal power-law behavior at long distances is revealed.