Technology learning for renewable energy. Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Winkler, Harald; Hughes, Alison [Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701 (South Africa); Haw, Mary [PJ Carew Consulting, 103 Hout Street, Cape Town 8001 (South Africa)

2009-11-15

Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa's electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/t CO{sub 2}-eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa. (author)

Climate change mitigation: comparative assessment of Malaysian and ASEAN scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Rasiah, Rajah; Ahmed, Adeel; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Chenayah, Santha

2017-01-01

This paper analyses empirically the optimal climate change mitigation policy of Malaysia with the business as usual scenario of ASEAN to compare their environmental and economic consequences over the period 2010-2110. A downscaling empirical dynamic model is constructed using a dual multidisciplinary framework combining economic, earth science, and ecological variables to analyse the long-run consequences. The model takes account of climatic variables, including carbon cycle, carbon emission, climatic damage, carbon control, carbon concentration, and temperature. The results indicate that without optimal climate policy and action, the cumulative cost of climate damage for Malaysia and ASEAN as a whole over the period 2010-2110 would be MYR40.1 trillion and MYR151.0 trillion, respectively. Under the optimal policy, the cumulative cost of climatic damage for Malaysia would fall to MYR5.3 trillion over the 100 years. Also, the additional economic output of Malaysia will rise from MYR2.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.6 billion in 2050 and MYR5.5 billion in 2110 under the optimal climate change mitigation scenario. The additional economic output for ASEAN would fall from MYR8.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.2 billion in 2050 before rising again slightly to MYR4.7 billion in 2110 in the business as usual ASEAN scenario.

CO2 mitigation scenarios in China's road transport sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Can; Cai, Wenjia; Lu, Xuedu; Chen, Jining

2007-01-01

China is the world's second largest greenhouse gas emitter, and emissions from the road transport sector represent one of the fastest growing GHG sources in China. Taking previous research on China's projected future vehicle ownership and future CO 2 emissions in the transport sector as a starting point, this paper reviews all recent environmental policies relating to the automobile industry and employs a scenario analysis to estimate different emissions inventories for different development strategies. The new policy scenario considers all possible mitigation options available to the road transport sector from a bottom up perspective and examines the effects for fuel efficiency improvement and the cost of these mitigation options - vehicle technology improvement, bus rapid transit system and fuel switching, through which the carbon dioxide emissions reduction potential is estimated. Not only does this paper indicate that a large emissions reduction potential exists in China's road transport sector, but it implies that vehicle technology improvement, especially engine technology is likely to be the most effective means to meet emissions reduction targets. This paper concludes by identifying key barriers to implementing those options in China and deduces the technical, financial and institutional aspects of the demand in China for national capacity building and international aid in order to achieve the emissions reduction goals

Effort sharing in ambitious, global climate change mitigation scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ekholm, Tommi; Soimakallio, Sampo; Moltmann, Sara; Hoehne, Niklas; Syri, Sanna; Savolainen, Ilkka

2010-01-01

The post-2012 climate policy framework needs a global commitment to deep greenhouse gas emission cuts. This paper analyzes reaching ambitious emission targets up to 2050, either -10% or -50% from 1990 levels, and how the economic burden from mitigation efforts could be equitably shared between countries. The scenarios indicate a large low-cost mitigation potential in electricity and industry, while reaching low emission levels in international transportation and agricultural emissions might prove difficult. The two effort sharing approaches, Triptych and Multistage, were compared in terms of equitability and coherence. Both approaches produced an equitable cost distribution between countries, with least developed countries having negative or low costs and more developed countries having higher costs. There is, however, no definitive solution on how the costs should be balanced equitably between countries. Triptych seems to be yet more coherent than other approaches, as it can better accommodate national circumstances. Last, challenges and possible hindrances to effective mitigation and equitable effort sharing are presented. The findings underline the significance of assumptions behind effort sharing on mitigation potentials and current emissions, the challenge of sharing the effort with uncertain future allowance prices and how inefficient markets might undermine the efficiency of a cap-and-trade system.

Effort sharing in ambitious, global climate change mitigation scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ekholm, Tommi [TKK Helsinki University of Technology, Espoo (Finland); Soimakallio, Sampo; Syri, Sanna; Savolainen, Ilkka [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, P.O. Box 1000, FIN-02044 VTT (Finland); Moltmann, Sara; Hoehne, Niklas [Ecofys Germany GmbH, Cologne (Germany)

2010-04-15

The post-2012 climate policy framework needs a global commitment to deep greenhouse gas emission cuts. This paper analyzes reaching ambitious emission targets up to 2050, either or from 1990 levels, and how the economic burden from mitigation efforts could be equitably shared between countries. The scenarios indicate a large low-cost mitigation potential in electricity and industry, while reaching low emission levels in international transportation and agricultural emissions might prove difficult. The two effort sharing approaches, Triptych and Multistage, were compared in terms of equitability and coherence. Both approaches produced an equitable cost distribution between countries, with least developed countries having negative or low costs and more developed countries having higher costs. There is, however, no definitive solution on how the costs should be balanced equitably between countries. Triptych seems to be yet more coherent than other approaches, as it can better accommodate national circumstances. Last, challenges and possible hindrances to effective mitigation and equitable effort sharing are presented. The findings underline the significance of assumptions behind effort sharing on mitigation potentials and current emissions, the challenge of sharing the effort with uncertain future allowance prices and how inefficient markets might undermine the efficiency of a cap-and-trade system. (author)

Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century - Part 2: Climate change mitigation policies

Science.gov (United States)

Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J.; Clarke, L.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E.; Chaturvedi, V.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Patel, P.; Calvin, K.

2013-03-01

We investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity both globally and regionally using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m-2 in year 2095 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The results are compared to a baseline scenario (i.e. no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) by 2095. When compared to the baseline scenario and maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food and energy production, and in land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops. This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water availability in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change. Future research will be directed at incorporating water shortage feedbacks in GCAM to better understand how such stresses will propagate across the various human and natural systems in GCAM.

Fuel conservation and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hao, Han; Wang, Hewu; Ouyang, Minggao

2011-01-01

Passenger vehicles are the main consumers of gasoline in China. We established a bottom-up model which focuses on the simulation of energy consumptions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions growth by China’s passenger vehicle fleet. The fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation effects of five measures including constraining vehicle registration, reducing vehicle travel, strengthening fuel consumption rate (FCR) limits, vehicle downsizing and promoting electric vehicle (EV) penetration were evaluated. Based on the combination of these measures, the fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet were analyzed. Under reference scenario with no measures implemented, the fuel consumptions and life cycle GHG emissions will reach 520 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) and 2.15 billion tons in 2050, about 8.1 times the level in 2010. However, substantial fuel conservation can be achieved by implementing the measures. By implementing all five measures together, the fuel consumption will reach 138 Mtoe in 2030 and decrease to 126 Mtoe in 2050, which is only 37.1% and 24.3% of the consumption under reference scenario. Similar potential lies in GHG mitigation. The results and scenarios provided references for the Chinese government’s policy-making. -- Highlights: ► We established a bottom-up model to simulate the fuel consumptions and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions growth by China’s passenger vehicle fleet. ► Five measures including constraining vehicle registration, reducing vehicle travel, improving fuel efficiency, vehicle downsizing and promoting EV penetration were evaluated. ► The fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet were provided as references for policy-making.

The Emissions Scenarios Portal: Visualizing Low-Carbon Pathways for the 21st Century

Science.gov (United States)

Hennig, R. J.; Friedrich, J.; Ge, M.; Mountford, H.; Fransen, T.; Altamirano, J. C.; Thanawala, Z.; Arcipowska, A.

2017-12-01

The Emissions Scenarios Portal (ESP) is a newly developed exploration tool for 21st century low-carbon pathways and investigation of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC's) that countries have put forward under the Paris Agreement. It is open to the public and aims to help achieve the goal of limiting global temperature increase to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by enhancing access to high-quality, up-to-date scenario information. It can guide users to set ambitious, realistic emission mitigation goals and understand what these goals imply for different sectors of the economy. Data will be integrated from a wide variety of economic and energy-system models with results from both national models as well as globally integrated assessment models (IAM's) and countries biennial update reports (BUR's). This information can support policy and investment decision making that will lead to a low carbon future. It is designed to help find answers to questions such as "Are the NDC's enough to put the world on a 2DC track?", "What do NDC's imply for different sectors of the economy under different assumptions?" or "What are good ways to increase ambition beyond NDC's?". The portal strives to achieve both inter-comparability across a wide range of different models and nationally reported scenarios, as well as flexibility to allow modelers to bring out the strengths and purpose of their model on the platform. Furthermore, it aims to enhance standardized and transparent reporting of emissions scenarios and relevant metadata, assumptions and results to improve understanding, accessibility and impact of the scenarios. On the data side, these rivaling objectives present interesting challenges for both the collection and communication of the data and in this presentation we will present some of our ideas for tackling these. This project will be part of Climate Watch, a new data platform developed jointly by the World Resources Institute and the NDC

Representative concentration pathways and mitigation scenarios for nitrous oxide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davidson, Eric A

2012-01-01

The challenges of mitigating nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions are substantially different from those for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ), because nitrogen (N) is essential for food production, and over 80% of anthropogenic N 2 O emissions are from the agricultural sector. Here I use a model of emission factors of N 2 O to demonstrate the magnitude of improvements in agriculture and industrial sectors and changes in dietary habits that would be necessary to match the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) now being considered in the fifth assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Stabilizing atmospheric N 2 O by 2050, consistent with the most aggressive of the RCP mitigation scenarios, would require about 50% reductions in emission factors in all sectors and about a 50% reduction in mean per capita meat consumption in the developed world. Technologies exist to achieve such improved efficiencies, but overcoming social, economic, and political impediments for their adoption and for changes in dietary habits will present large challenges. (letter)

Sustainable energy-economic-environmental scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2002-03-31

IIASA's Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Project has proposed a quantitative 'working definition' of sustainable development E3 (energy-economic-environmental) scenarios. ECS has proposed four criteria for sustainability: economic growth is sustained throughout the time horizon; socioeconomic inequity among world regions is reduced over the 21st century; reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio for exhaustible primary energy resources do not decline; and long-term environmental stress is mitigated. Using these criteria, 40 long-term E3 scenarios generated by ECS models were reviewed and analyzed. Amongst the conclusions drawn were: slow population growth or stabilization of global population appears to be prerequisite for sustainable development; economic growth alone does not guarantee a sustainable future; carbon intensities of total primary energy must decrease faster than the historical trend; strategies for fossil fuel consumption must aim at non-decreasing R/P ratios; and carbon emissions must be near or below today's levels at the end of this century. The analysis of sustainable development scenarios is an important step towards formulating long-term strategies aimed at climate stabilization. 6 figs., 1 tab.

MITIGATION SCENARIOS FOR RESIDENTIAL FIRES IN DENSELY POPULATED URBAN SETTLEMENTS IN SUKAHAJI VILLAGE, BANDUNG CITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saut Aritua Hasiholan Sagala

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Residential fires are a form of disaster that often occurs in urban areas especially in densely populated settlements. This study looks at possible mitigation scenarios for this kind of disaster. A case study was conducted in Babakan Ciparay Sub-District in Bandung City, among the densely populated settlements, and was focused especially on Sukahaji Village, a sub-unit of Babakan Ciparay, which is the most densely populated village in Bandung City with up to 234.14 people/ha. There have been six structural fires recorded from 2007 until 2010 occurring in Sukahaji. This study applied stratified random sampling as the preferred sampling technique and data collection method from a total population of 3,227 buildings. The data was then examined using risk analysis. The results have led to two intervention measures suggested as mitigation scenarios for residential fires that can be applied within the Sukahaji Village. The study concludes that mitigation measures through strengthening community capacity can be the principal option in reducing risk to fires in densely populated urban settlements.

Capital investment requirements for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation in power generation on near term to century time scales and global to regional spatial scales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, James; Calvin, Katherine; Kyle, Page

2014-01-01

Our paper explores the implication of climate mitigation policy and electricity generation technology performance for capital investment demands by the electric power sector on near term to century time scales. We find that stabilizing GHG emissions will require additional investment in the electricity generation sector over and above investments that would be needed in the absence of climate policy, in the range of 15 to 29 trillion US$ (48–94%) depending on the stringency of climate policy during the period 2015 to 2095 under default technology assumptions. This increase reflects the higher capital intensity of power systems that control emissions as well as increased electrification of the global economy. Limits on the penetration of nuclear and carbon capture and storage technology could increase costs substantially. Energy efficiency improvements can reduce the investment requirement by 18 to 24 trillion US$ (compared to default technology climate policy assumptions), depending on climate policy scenario. We also highlight the implications of different technology evolution scenarios for different regions. Under default technology set, the heaviest investments across scenarios in power generation were observed in China, India, SE Asia and Africa regions with the latter three regions dominating in the second half of the 21st century. - Highlights: • We present electricity generation investment requirement under different scenarios. • A climate policy will lead to substantial increase in investment requirement. • Stringency of climate policy has significant implications for investments. • Technology evolution and performance alter investment requirements significantly. • China, India, Southeast Asia and Africa dominate as investment destinations

Hydrological Sensitivity of Land Use Scenarios for Climate Mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Boegh, E.; Friborg, T.; Hansen, K.; Jensen, R.; Seaby, L. P.

2014-12-01

Bringing atmospheric concentration to 550 ppm CO2 or below by 2100 will require large-scale changes to global and national energy systems, and potentially the use of land (IPCC, 2013) The Danish government aims at reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 40 % in 1990-2020 and energy consumption to be based on 100 % renewable energy by 2035. By 2050, GHG emissions should be reduced by 80-95 %. Strategies developed to reach these goals require land use change to increase the production of biomass for bioenergy, further use of catch crops, reduced nitrogen inputs in agriculture, reduced soil tillage, afforestation and establishment of permanent grass fields. Currently, solar radiation in the growing season is not fully exploited, and it is expected that biomass production for bioenergy can be supported without reductions in food and fodder production. Impacts of climate change on the hydrological sensitivity of biomass growth and soil carbon storage are however not known. The present study evaluates the hydrological sensitivity of Danish land use options for climate mitigation in terms of crop yields (including straw for bioenergy) and net CO2 exchange for wheat, barley, maize and clover under current and future climate conditions. Hydrological sensitivity was evaluated using the agrohydrological model Daisy. Simulations during current climate conditions were in good agreement with measured dry matter, crop nitrogen content and eddy covariance fluxes of water vapour and CO2. Climate scenarios from the European ENSEMBLES database were downscaled for simulating water, nitrogen and carbon balance for 2071-2100. The biomass potential generally increase, but water stress also increases in strength and extends over a longer period, thereby increasing sensitivity to water availability. The potential of different land use scenarios to maximize vegetation cover and biomass for climate mitigation is further discussed in relation to impacts on the energy- and water balance.

The effectiveness of energy service demand reduction: A scenario analysis of global climate change mitigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fujimori, S.; Kainuma, M.; Masui, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Dai, H.

2014-01-01

A reduction of energy service demand is a climate mitigation option, but its effectiveness has never been quantified. We quantify the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and industry sectors using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model for the period 2015–2050 under various scenarios. There were two major findings. First, a 25% energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and basic material industry sectors would reduce the GDP loss induced by climate mitigation from 4.0% to 3.0% and from 1.2% to 0.7% in 2050 under the 450 ppm and 550 ppm CO 2 equivalent concentration stabilization scenarios, respectively. Second, the effectiveness of a reduction in the building sector's energy service demand would be higher than those of the other sectors at the same rate of the energy service demand reduction. Furthermore, we also conducted a sensitivity analysis of different socioeconomic conditions, and the climate mitigation target was found to be a key determinant of the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction measures. Therefore, more certain climate mitigation targets would be useful for the decision makers who design energy service demand reduction measures. - Highlights: • The effectiveness of a reduction in energy service demand is quantified. • A 25% reduction in energy service demand would be equivalent to 1% of GDP in 2050. • Stringent mitigation increases the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction. • Effectiveness of a reduction in energy demand service is higher in the building sector

Greenhouse gas energy scenarios for Mexico in year 2020, and mitigation potential of renewable technologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sheinbaum, Claudia; Robles, Guillermo; Rodriguez V, Luis [Instituto de Ingenieria de la UNAM, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Massera, Omar [UNAM, Michoacan (Mexico)

2000-07-01

This paper presents the structure of the Mexican Energy-Emission Scenario Model (MEESM). In explains the importance of developing a bottom-up model for GHG mitigation assessment in Mexico. Also, the paper presents results of CO{sub 2} mitigation scenarios for year 2020 for five renewable energy technologies: solar water heaters, geothermal, biomass, mini/micro hydro and wind power generation. The paper concludes by discussing the importance of simulation accounting bottom-up models as tools for GHG mitigation policies. [Spanish] Este articulo presenta la estructura del Modelo de Escenario de Emision de Energia Mexicano (MEESM). En el se explica la importancia de desarrollar un modelo organizacional de abajo hacia arriba para la evaluacion de la mitigacion del efecto invernadero en Mexico. El articulo presenta tambien los resultados de los escenarios de mitigacion de CO{sub 2} para el ano 2020 utilizando cinco tecnologias de energia renovable: calentadores solares de agua, geotermia, biomasa, y mini/micro generacion de energia por agua y viento. El articulo concluye con el analisis de la importancia de la simulacion tomando en cuenta modelos organizacionales de abajo hacia arriba como herramientas para las politicas de mitigacion del efecto invernadero.

Nuclear energy development in the 21st century: Global scenarios and regional trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

The International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) was launched in 2000, on the basis of a resolution of the IAEA General Conference (GC(44)/RES/21). INPRO helps ensure that sustainable nuclear energy is available in the twenty-first century and seeks to bring together all interested Member States - both technology holders and technology users - to consider joint actions to achieve desired innovations. As of July 2010, 30 countries and the European Commission are members of INPRO. Programme Area B of INPRO, Global Vision - Scenarios and Pathways to Sustainable Nuclear Power Development, is aimed at providing a better understanding of the role of nuclear energy in the context of long term sustainable development. Its objective is to develop global and regional nuclear energy scenarios on the basis of a scientific-technical pathway analysis that lead to a global vision on sustainable nuclear energy development in the twenty-first century, and to support Member States in working towards that vision. This report presents the results of a study undertaken under Programme Area B in INPRO on Nuclear Energy Development in the Twenty-first Century: Global Scenarios and Regional Trends Studies on Nuclear Capacity Growth and Material Flow between Regions. The report does not develop a global vision for nuclear deployment per se, but presents a limited set of technical scenarios of nuclear deployment and considers their implications. It considers a global energy supply system composed of several reactor and fuel cycle types available today and of fast reactors that may be developed in the future to illustrate a possible modelling approach to identify the potential role of interregional transfer of nuclear fuel resources in supporting the global growth of nuclear energy. The study was performed with the participation of sixteen experts from nine INPRO Member States and included a dynamic simulation of material flows in nuclear energy systems using

Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land-based climate-change mitigation efforts.

Science.gov (United States)

Krause, Andreas; Pugh, Thomas A M; Bayer, Anita D; Li, Wei; Leung, Felix; Bondeau, Alberte; Doelman, Jonathan C; Humpenöder, Florian; Anthoni, Peter; Bodirsky, Benjamin L; Ciais, Philippe; Müller, Christoph; Murray-Tortarolo, Guillermo; Olin, Stefan; Popp, Alexander; Sitch, Stephen; Stehfest, Elke; Arneth, Almut

2018-07-01

Most climate mitigation scenarios involve negative emissions, especially those that aim to limit global temperature increase to 2°C or less. However, the carbon uptake potential in land-based climate change mitigation efforts is highly uncertain. Here, we address this uncertainty by using two land-based mitigation scenarios from two land-use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) as input to four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs; LPJ-GUESS, ORCHIDEE, JULES, LPJmL). Each of the four combinations of land-use models and mitigation scenarios aimed for a cumulative carbon uptake of ~130 GtC by the end of the century, achieved either via the cultivation of bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or avoided deforestation and afforestation (ADAFF). Results suggest large uncertainty in simulated future land demand and carbon uptake rates, depending on the assumptions related to land use and land management in the models. Total cumulative carbon uptake in the DGVMs is highly variable across mitigation scenarios, ranging between 19 and 130 GtC by year 2099. Only one out of the 16 combinations of mitigation scenarios and DGVMs achieves an equivalent or higher carbon uptake than achieved in the land-use models. The large differences in carbon uptake between the DGVMs and their discrepancy against the carbon uptake in IMAGE and MAgPIE are mainly due to different model assumptions regarding bioenergy crop yields and due to the simulation of soil carbon response to land-use change. Differences between land-use models and DGVMs regarding forest biomass and the rate of forest regrowth also have an impact, albeit smaller, on the results. Given the low confidence in simulated carbon uptake for a given land-based mitigation scenario, and that negative emissions simulated by the DGVMs are typically lower than assumed in scenarios consistent with the 2°C target, relying on negative emissions to mitigate climate change is a highly uncertain strategy. © 2018 John

Climate change under aggressive mitigation: the ENSEMBLES multi-model experiment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johns, T.C.; Hewitt, C.D. [Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Royer, J.F.; Salas y. Melia, D. [Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques-Groupe d' Etude de l' Atmosphere Meteorologique (CNRM-GAME Meteo-France CNRS), Toulouse (France); Hoeschel, I.; Koerper, J. [Freie Universitaet Berlin, Institute for Meteorology, Berlin (Germany); Huebener, H. [Hessian Agency for the Environment and Geology, Wiesbaden (Germany); Roeckner, E.; Giorgetta, M.A. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Manzini, E. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); May, W.; Yang, S. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Danish Climate Centre, Copenhagen (Denmark); Dufresne, J.L. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD/IPSL), UMR 8539 CNRS, ENS, UPMC, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Otteraa, O.H. [Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Uni. Bjerknes Centre, Bergen (Norway); Vuuren, D.P. van [Utrecht University, Utrecht (Netherlands); Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL), Bilthoven (Netherlands); Denvil, S. [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), FR 636 CNRS, UVSQ, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Fogli, P.G. [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Tjiputra, J.F. [University of Bergen, Department of Geophysics, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Stehfest, E. [Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL), Bilthoven (Netherlands)

2011-11-15

We present results from multiple comprehensive models used to simulate an aggressive mitigation scenario based on detailed results of an Integrated Assessment Model. The experiment employs ten global climate and Earth System models (GCMs and ESMs) and pioneers elements of the long-term experimental design for the forthcoming 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment. Atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentrations pathways rather than carbon emissions are specified in all models, including five ESMs that contain interactive carbon cycles. Specified forcings also include minor greenhouse gas concentration pathways, ozone concentration, aerosols (via concentrations or precursor emissions) and land use change (in five models). The new aggressive mitigation scenario (E1), constructed using an integrated assessment model (IMAGE 2.4) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K, is studied alongside the medium-high non-mitigation scenario SRES A1B. Resulting twenty-first century global mean warming and precipitation changes for A1B are broadly consistent with previous studies. In E1 twenty-first century global warming remains below 2 K in most models, but global mean precipitation changes are higher than in A1B up to 2065 and consistently higher per degree of warming. The spread in global temperature and precipitation responses is partly attributable to inter-model variations in aerosol loading and representations of aerosol-related radiative forcing effects. Our study illustrates that the benefits of mitigation will not be realised in temperature terms until several decades after emissions reductions begin, and may vary considerably between regions. A subset of the models containing integrated carbon cycles agree that land and ocean sinks remove roughly half of present day anthropogenic carbon emissions from the atmosphere, and that anthropogenic carbon emissions must decrease by at least 50% by 2050 relative

Co2 emission scenarios for next centuries to obtain more complete simulations of the global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Michelini, M.

2001-01-01

In the framework of a punctual Modeling of the Greenhouse Effect (report RT/ERG/2001/1) it is necessary to set CO2 Emission Scenarios for the next Centuries in order to obtain the complete evolution of the global warming. Some methodologies are described to approach such long term previsions. From the demand side, the growth of the consumes (which are affected by population and development) is correlated (supply side) with the technical-economic-environmental Evaluation of the future diffusion of classic sources (experienced in the past centuries) and of new Technologies and renewable sources. The previsions of the world population Growth are derived from the UNFPA publications. The degree of economic Development of the world Population in the very long term is obtained by simulating the Evolution of the Population across four main Areas characterized by different pro-capita consumes. Using these criteria two different Scenarios have been set-up and put into comparison with the SRES Scenarios published in the Third Assessment Report-WG1 of the IPCC. The cut at the year 2100 of the SRES Scenarios is also discussed. Simulations of the Global Warming in the long term have been performed with the two scenarios. These results are discussed together with the results of the Simulations reported by IPCC [it

IPCC workshop on socio-economic scenarios. Workshop report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Edenhofer, O.; Pichs-Madruga, R.; Sokona, Y. (and others)

2012-07-01

The goal of the IPCC Workshop on Socio-Economic Scenarios (WoSES) was to facilitate the development of socioeconomic narratives and pathways by the integrated assessment modelling, impacts, and adaptation communities. Describing these pathways and narratives is a core step to analyzing the interdependent issues of adaptation and mitigation in an integrated manner. The Workshop participants agreed that structured and consistent assessments of possible future impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation would benefit from using shared qualitative narrative and quantitative descriptions of potential socioeconomic and ecosystem reference conditions that underlie challenges to mitigation and adaptation. These descriptions should be flexible enough to provide a framework for comparison within which regional or local studies of adaptation and vulnerability could build their own narratives. The defining socioeconomic conditions of these scenarios are designated Shared Socioeconomic reference Pathways (SSPs). The SSPs define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale and have two elements: a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate change. This assumption defines the SSPs as a baseline independent of climate change projections. The set of SSPs was chosen to characterize the range of uncertainty in mitigation efforts required to achieve particular radiative forcing pathways, in adaptation efforts that could be undertaken to prepare for and respond to the climate change associated with those pathways, and in residual impacts. This will allow assessment of scenarios along two axes: socioeconomic challenges to mitigation, and socioeconomic challenges to adaptation. This conceptualization of SSPs allows them to be combined with different degrees of anthropogenic interference with the climate system (measured in terms of

Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Dove, Sophie G; Kline, David I; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E; Tyson, Gene W; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

2013-09-17

Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century.

Differences, or lack thereof, in wheat and maize yields under three low-warming scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Tebaldi, Claudia; Lobell, David

2018-06-01

The availability of climate model experiments under three alternative scenarios stabilizing at warming targets inspired by the COP21 agreements (a 1.5 °C not exceed, a 1.5 °C with overshoot and a 2.0 °C) makes it possible to assess future expected changes in global yields for two staple crops, wheat and maize. In this study an empirical model of the relation between crop yield anomalies and temperature and precipitation changes, with or without the inclusion of CO2 fertilization effects, is used to produce ensembles of time series of yield outcomes on a yearly basis over the course of the 21st century, for each scenario. The 21st century is divided into 10 year windows starting from 2020, within which the statistical significance and the magnitude of the differences in yield changes between pairs of scenarios are assessed, thus evaluating if and when benefits of mitigations appear, and how substantial they are. Additionally, a metric of extreme heat tailored to the individual crops (number of days during the growing season above a crop-specific threshold) is used to measure exposure to harmful temperatures under the different scenarios. If CO2 effects are not included, statistically significant differences in yields of both crops appear as early as the 2030s but the magnitude of the differences remains below 3% of the historical baseline in all cases until the second part of the century. In the later decades of the 21st century, differences remain small and eventually stop being statistically significant between the two scenarios stabilizing at 1.5 °C, while differences between these two lower scenarios and the 2.0 °C scenario grow to about 4%. The inclusion of CO2 effects erases all significant benefits of mitigation for wheat, while the significance of differences is maintained for maize yields between the higher and the two lower scenarios, albeit with smaller benefits in magnitude. Changes in extremes are significant within each of the scenarios

World Future Mapping and Scenarios for the 21st Century

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vareikis Egidijus

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of this text is to describe the methods of future studies, its possibilities and limitations, as well as to make some predictions about the real picture of the development of the 21st century. However, the planning is still not very reliable, and far from a “road map” framework. Thus, future studies are still balancing between science and scientific/artistic fiction. The set of methods of future investigation permits one to compose a few or even up to dozens of medium term or long term scenarios of the world’s future. There are a few well-proven laws of social and economic development as well as some partially predictable phenomena in the area of environment, biology, human ethic, etc. No future planning is secure from unpredictable phenomena – “black swans” – and their impact, nor secure from “political decisions” that destroy natural developments in society. So no one scenario can pretend to be absolutely right. The most frequent future scenarios are based on the wish to implement a copy of an existing “happy nation”, to fight undesirable trends, and create some kind of “dream society” while stimulating positives and inhibiting negative trends. The final version of a scenario depends also upon the “human factors”, e.g. knowledge, stereotypes of thinking, as well as the wishes of those who are financing the project. Generally they are “happy end” projects. This makes scenarios rather useless. Only the independent experts that present more realistic and reliable scenarios can help in the planning of medium term and long term futures. Currently many scenarios foresee the so-called American or European way of development, which is in fact the continuation of the existing world order. There is a growing number of publications about the emergence of China (and Russia as a great power as well as possibilities of a New Caliphate, New Messiah or new Orwellian style regimes.

Forest carbon response to management scenarios intended to mitigate GHG emissions and reduce fire impacts in the US West Coast region

Science.gov (United States)

Hudiburg, T. W.; Law, B. E.; Thornton, P. E.; Luyssaert, S.

2012-12-01

US West coast forests are among the most carbon dense biomes in the world and the potential for biomass accumulation in mesic coastal forests is the highest recorded (Waring and Franklin 1979, Hudiburg et al. 2009). Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies have recently expanded to include forest woody biomass as bioenergy, with the expectation that this will also reduce forest mortality. We examined forest carbon response and life cycle assessment (LCA) of net carbon emissions following varying combinations of bioenergy management scenarios in Pacific Northwest forests for the period from 2010-2100. We use the NCAR CLM4 model combined with a regional atmospheric forcing dataset and account for future environmental change using the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Bioenergy management strategies include a repeated thinning harvest, a repeated clearcut harvest, and a single salvage harvest in areas with projected insect-related mortality. None of the bioenergy management scenarios reduce net emissions to the atmosphere compared to continued business-as-usual harvest (BAU) by the end of the 21st century. Forest regrowth and reduced fire emissions are not large enough to balance the wood removals from harvest. Moreover, the substitution of wood for fossil fuel energy and products is not large enough to offset the wood losses through decomposition and combustion. However, in some ecoregions (Blue Mountains and East Cascades), emissions from the thinning harvests begin to improve over BAU at the end of the century and could lead to net reductions in those ecoregions over a longer time period (> 100 years). For salvage logging, there is no change compared to BAU emissions by the end of the 21st century because the treatment area is minimal compared to the other treatments and only performed once. These results suggest that managing forests for carbon sequestration will need to include a variety of approaches accounting for forest baseline conditions and in some

Strengthening of the hydrological cycle in future scenarios: atmospheric energy and water balance perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Alessandri

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Future climate scenarios experiencing global warming are expected to strengthen the hydrological cycle during the 21st century (21C. We analyze the strengthening of the global-scale increase in precipitation from the perspective of changes in whole atmospheric water and energy balances. By combining energy and water equations for the whole atmosphere, we obtain constraints for the changes in surface fluxes and partitioning at the surface between sensible and latent components. We investigate the differences in the strengthening of the hydrological cycle in two centennial simulations performed with an Earth system model forced with specified atmospheric concentration pathways. Alongside the Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES A1B, which is a medium-high non-mitigation scenario, we consider a new aggressive-mitigation scenario (E1 with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K.

Our results show that the mitigation scenario effectively constrains the global warming with a stabilization below 2 K with respect to the 1950–2000 historical period. On the other hand, the E1 precipitation does not follow the temperature field toward a stabilization path but continues to increase over the mitigation period. Quite unexpectedly, the mitigation scenario is shown to strengthen the hydrological cycle even more than SRES A1B till around 2070. We show that this is mostly a consequence of the larger increase in the negative radiative imbalance of atmosphere in E1 compared to A1B. This appears to be primarily related to decreased sulfate aerosol concentration in E1, which considerably reduces atmospheric absorption of solar radiation compared to A1B.

The last decades of the 21C show a marked increase in global precipitation in A1B compared to E1, despite the fact that the two scenarios display almost the same overall increase of radiative imbalance with respect to the 20th century. Our

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

2017-04-01

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

Ancillary health effects of climate mitigation scenarios as drivers of policy uptake: a review of air quality, transportation and diet co-benefits modeling studies

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Kelly M.; Hess, Jeremy J.; Balbus, John M.; Buonocore, Jonathan J.; Cleveland, David A.; Grabow, Maggie L.; Neff, Roni; Saari, Rebecca K.; Tessum, Christopher W.; Wilkinson, Paul; Woodward, Alistair; Ebi, Kristie L.

2017-11-01

Background: Significant mitigation efforts beyond the Nationally Determined Commitments (NDCs) coming out of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement are required to avoid warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. Health co-benefits represent selected near term, positive consequences of climate policies that can offset mitigation costs in the short term before the beneficial impacts of those policies on the magnitude of climate change are evident. The diversity of approaches to modeling mitigation options and their health effects inhibits meta-analyses and syntheses of results useful in policy-making. Methods/Design: We evaluated the range of methods and choices in modeling health co-benefits of climate mitigation to identify opportunities for increased consistency and collaboration that could better inform policy-making. We reviewed studies quantifying the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation related to air quality, transportation, and diet published since the 2009 Lancet Commission ‘Managing the health effects of climate change’ through January 2017. We documented approaches, methods, scenarios, health-related exposures, and health outcomes. Results/Synthesis: Forty-two studies met the inclusion criteria. Air quality, transportation, and diet scenarios ranged from specific policy proposals to hypothetical scenarios, and from global recommendations to stakeholder-informed local guidance. Geographic and temporal scope as well as validity of scenarios determined policy relevance. More recent studies tended to use more sophisticated methods to address complexity in the relevant policy system. Discussion: Most studies indicated significant, nearer term, local ancillary health benefits providing impetus for policy uptake and net cost savings. However, studies were more suited to describing the interaction of climate policy and health and the magnitude of potential outcomes than to providing specific accurate estimates of health co-benefits. Modeling

Limited influence of climate change mitigation on short-term glacier mass loss

Science.gov (United States)

Marzeion, Ben; Kaser, Georg; Maussion, Fabien; Champollion, Nicolas

2018-04-01

Glacier mass loss is a key contributor to sea-level change1,2, slope instability in high-mountain regions3,4 and the changing seasonality and volume of river flow5-7. Understanding the causes, mechanisms and time scales of glacier change is therefore paramount to identifying successful strategies for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we use temperature and precipitation fields from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 output to force a glacier evolution model, quantifying mass responses to future climatic change. We find that contemporary glacier mass is in disequilibrium with the current climate, and 36 ± 8% mass loss is already committed in response to past greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, mitigating future emissions will have only very limited influence on glacier mass change in the twenty-first century. No significant differences between 1.5 and 2 K warming scenarios are detectable in the sea-level contribution of glaciers accumulated within the twenty-first century. In the long-term, however, mitigation will exert strong control, suggesting that ambitious measures are necessary for the long-term preservation of glaciers.

N2O emissions from the global agricultural nitrogen cycle – current state and future scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Lotze-Campen

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Reactive nitrogen (Nr is not only an important nutrient for plant growth, thereby safeguarding human alimentation, but it also heavily disturbs natural systems. To mitigate air, land, aquatic, and atmospheric pollution caused by the excessive availability of Nr, it is crucial to understand the long-term development of the global agricultural Nr cycle. For our analysis, we combine a material flow model with a land-use optimization model. In a first step we estimate the state of the Nr cycle in 1995. In a second step we create four scenarios for the 21st century in line with the SRES storylines. Our results indicate that in 1995 only half of the Nr applied to croplands was incorporated into plant biomass. Moreover, less than 10 per cent of all Nr in cropland plant biomass and grazed pasture was consumed by humans. In our scenarios a strong surge of the Nr cycle occurs in the first half of the 21st century, even in the environmentally oriented scenarios. Nitrous oxide (N2O emissions rise from 3 Tg N2O-N in 1995 to 7–9 in 2045 and 5–12 Tg in 2095. Reinforced Nr pollution mitigation efforts are therefore required.

A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Lei; Lee, Xuhui; Schultz, Natalie M.

2017-07-01

Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs). Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases - cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of -3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071-2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG) warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

The Value of CCS under Current Policy Scenarios: NDCs and Beyond

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Davidson, Casie L.; Dahowski, Robert T.; McJeon, Haewon C.; Clarke, Leon E.; Iyer, Gokul C.; Muratori, Matteo

2017-07-01

This paper describes preliminary results of analysis using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to evaluate the potential role of CCS in addressing emissions reduction targets. Scenarios are modelled using the Paris-Increased Ambition (PIA) case developed by Fawcett et al. (2015), and a more aggressive Paris Two-Degree Ambition (P2A) case. Both cases are based upon nationally determined contributions (NDCs) agreed to at the UNFCCC Conference of Parties (COP-21) in December 2015, coupled with additional mitigation effort beyond the 2030 Paris timeframe, through the end of the century. Analysis of CCS deployment and abatement costs under both policy scenarios suggests that, as modelled, having CCS in the technological portfolio could reduce the global cost of addressing emissions reduction targets specified under the policy scenario by trillions of dollars, primarily by enabling a smoother and lower-cost transition to next-generation technologies. Through the end of the century, total global abatement costs associated with the PIA case – with five percent annual reduction in emission intensity and reaching 2.2 degrees by 2100 – are reduced by $15 trillion USD in the scenario where CCS is available to deploy by 2025 and remains available through 2100, reflecting a 47 percent savings in the cost of climate change abatement. Under the more ambitious P2A case, with 8 percent annual reduction in emission intensity and reaching 1.9 degrees by 2100, the availability of CCS reduces global abatement costs by $22 trillion USD through the end of the century, again nearly halving the costs of addressing the policy, relative to achieving the same target using an energy portfolio that does not include CCS. PIA and P2A scenarios with CCS result in 1,250 and 1,580 GtCO2 of global geologic storage by the end of the century, respectively.

Short-term global warming mitigation costs of fischer-tropsch diesel production and policy scenarios in Norway

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bright, Ryan M.; Stroemman, Anders Hammer

2010-07-01

Full text: Increasing the supply of advanced biofuels like synthetic diesel produced from woody biomass require attractive investment environments so that novel technologies are deployed and technological learning can lead to reduced production costs and accelerated market diffusion. Technology-specific biofuel policy designed to minimize perceived risk may encourage shortterm investment into those biofuels offering superior environmental benefits - particularly climate mitigation benefits - thereby leading to steeper learning curves and deeper greenhouse gas (GHG) emission cuts over the medium- and long-term horizon. We perform both a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and an economic analysis of Fischer-Tropsch diesel (FTD) produced from Norwegian forest biomass at an 'nth' commercial plant (a plant with the same technologies that have been employed in previous commercial plants). This is followed with a cost growth analysis in order to derive production costs likely to be borne by pioneer commercial plants in Norway in the short-term (2016). LCA results are used to calculate shortterm GHG mitigation costs. We then assess, through scenarios, how various policy measures and financial support mechanisms would reduce production costs for incentivizing short-term investment and expediting commercial deployment in Norway. Because 'top-down' or 'market pull' biofuel support policy like excise tax exemptions or carbon taxes do not directly encourage investment into specific biofuel technologies like wood-FTD in the short term, we choose to analyze three 'bottom-up' or 'market push' policy scenarios to assess their effects on reducing levelized unit production costs. These include a Capital Grant, a low-interest Loan Guarantee, a Corporate Tax Credit, and a Feedstock Credit scenario. Under the Capital Grant scenario, we assess the change in levelized production and thus GHG abatement costs when a 50% capital grant (TCI) is

Developing high-risk scenarios and countermeasure ideas for mitigation of hazardous materials incidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, E.R. Sr.

1991-01-01

Kansas State University (KSU) conducted a comprehensive study of the development of a set of prioritized, extreme-risk scenarios, the development of a set of feasible, practical and implementable protective systems, and a report to summarize guidelines on the use of these protective systems to mitigate potential, extreme-risk situations that could occur during the transport of hazardous materials (Hazmat) on our highway system. This paper covers the methodology used to compete the first tow objectives with use of a state's panel. The research study was limited to materials (such as LNG, propane, gasoline, etc.) spilled within the highway system. It focused on potential risks which would result in severe, long-term, permanent, irreparable or catastrophic consequences, and existing technology and state-of-the-art knowledge for development of protective systems to mitigate these consequences. The protective systems within the scope of this study were systems constructed or physically incorporated into the highway system or modifications thereto

Temporal and spatial distribution of global mitigation cost: INDCs and equity

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jing-Yu; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Masui, Toshihiko

2016-11-01

Each country’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) pledges an emission target for 2025 or 2030. Here, we evaluated the INDC inter-generational and inter-regional equity by comparing scenarios with INDC emissions target in 2030 and with an immediate emission reduction associated with a global uniform carbon price using Asian-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium. Both scenarios eventually achieve 2 °C target. The results showed that, as compared with an immediate emission reduction scenario, the inter-generational equity status is not favorable for INDC scenario and the future generation suffers more from delayed mitigation. Moreover, this conclusion was robust to the wide range of inequality aversion parameter that determines discount rate. On the other hand, the INDC scenario has better inter-regional equity in the early part of the century than does the immediate emission reduction scenario in which we assume a global carbon price during the period up to 2030. However, inter-regional equity worsens later in the century. The additional emissions reduction to the INDC in 2030 would improve both inter- and inter-regional equity as compared to the current INDC. We also suggest that countries should commit to more emissions reductions in the follow-up INDC communications and that continuous consideration for low-income countries is needed for global climate change cooperation after 2030.

Scenario analysis of energy saving and CO_2 emissions reduction potentials to ratchet up Japanese mitigation target in 2030 in the residential sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wakiyama, Takako; Kuramochi, Takeshi

2017-01-01

This paper assesses to what extent CO_2 emissions from electricity in the residential sector can be further reduced in Japan beyond its post-2020 mitigation target (known as “Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC)”). The paper examines the reduction potential of electricity demand and CO_2 emissions in the residential sector by conducting a scenario analysis. Electricity consumption scenarios are set up using a time-series regression model, and used to forecast the electricity consumption patterns to 2030. The scenario analysis also includes scenarios that reduce electricity consumption through enhanced energy efficiency and energy saving measures. The obtained results show that Japan can reduce electricity consumption and CO_2 emissions in the residential sector in 2030 more than the Japanese post-2020 mitigation target indicates. At the maximum, the electricity consumption could be reduced by 35 TWh, which contributes to 55.4 MtCO_2 of emissions reduction in 2030 compared to 2013 if the voluntarily targeted CO_2 intensity of electricity is achieved. The result implies that Japan has the potential to ratchet up post-2020 mitigation targets discussed under the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). - Highlights: • Further reduction of electricity consumption is possible beyond Japan's post-2020 mitigation target. • Energy saving efforts by households and incentives to reduce electricity demands are required. • Improvement of CO_2 intensity from electricity is a key factor in the reduction of CO_2 emissions.

Electric Vehicle Scenarios for India: Implications for mitigation and development

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Bhaskar, Kalyan

2014-01-01

to infrastructure and policies. While the literature on EVs has focused more on the role of electric cars, it could be electric two-wheelers which could make early headway, as is the case in China where nearly 120 million such vehicles had been sold by the end of 2012. Three scenarios (Business as Usual (BAU......The transport sector globally is overly dependent on liquid fossil fuels. Electric vehicles (EVs) are touted as a way of diversifying the fuel mix and helping to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. There could also be other co-benefits of EVs, such as improved energy security, decarbonising...... of the electricity sector, CO2 mitigation and reduction in local air pollution. The Indian government has recently launched a national electricity mobility mission to promote EVs. There is, however, much uncertainty in terms of the penetration of EVs in the transport sector, particularly those related...

A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Zhao

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs. Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases – cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of −3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071–2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

Energy System Expectations for Nuclear in the 21. Century: A Plausible Range

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Langlois, Lucille M.; McDonald, Alan; Rogner, Hans-Holger; Vera, Ivan

2002-01-01

This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look like in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2000). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios. However, they do not present the underlying energy system structures in enough detail for specific energy technology and infrastructure analyses. This paper therefore describes initial steps within INPRO (The International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles of the International Atomic Energy Agency) to translate the SRES results into a range of possible nuclear energy technology requirements for mid-century. The paper summarizes the four SRES scenarios that will be used in INPRO and the reasons for their selection. It provides illustrative examples of the sort of additional detail that is being developed about the overall energy system implied by each scenario, and about specific scenario features particularly relevant to nuclear energy. As recommended in SRES, the selected scenarios cover all four SRES 'story-line families'. The energy system translations being developed in INPRO are intended to indicate how energy services may be provided in mid-century and to delineate likely technology and infrastructure implications. They will indicate answers to questions like the following. The list is illustrative, not comprehensive. - What kind of nuclear power plants will best fit the mid-century energy system? - What energy forms and other products and services provided by nuclear reactors will best fit the mid-century energy system? - What would be their market shares? - How difficult will it be to site new nuclear

Energy scenarios for the 21. century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lauerman, V.

2002-01-01

The Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) has adopted a scenario approach in developing its energy outlook to 2025. These scenarios can be used in developing strategies to optimize opportunities and avoid the dangers that often accompany the more deterministic approach to forecasting. The scenarios are not predictions, but are instead feasible outcomes for the future. They encompass 5 major areas of uncertainty for the world energy market through 2025 that impact energy demand and fuel mix. These include the economy, technology, energy policy, resource availability, and market structure. The drivers for the energy scenarios are the environment, demography, economics, culture geopolitics and technology. The paper referred to the world energy market, the OECD energy markets, the non-OECD energy markets and the FSU energy markets under 3 energy scenarios including: (1) the material world in which the new economy drives the global economy, (2) a very dark Orwellian world in which there is a rise in terrorism and a breakdown in international cooperation, and (3) a utopia in which the major powers become increasingly serious about achieving sustainable development. 22 refs., 48 figs

Climate change impacts on the power generation potential of a European mid-century wind farms scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tobin, Isabelle; Vautard, Robert; Noël, Thomas; Jerez, Sonia; Thais, Françoise; Van Meijgaard, Erik; Prein, Andreas; Déqué, Michel; Kotlarski, Sven; Maule, Cathrine Fox; Nikulin, Grigory; Teichmann, Claas

2016-01-01

Wind energy resource is subject to changes in climate. To investigate the impacts of climate change on future European wind power generation potential, we analyze a multi-model ensemble of the most recent EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations at the 12 km grid resolution. We developed a mid-century wind power plant scenario to focus the impact assessment on relevant locations for future wind power industry. We found that, under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, changes in the annual energy yield of the future European wind farms fleet as a whole will remain within ±5% across the 21st century. At country to local scales, wind farm yields will undergo changes up to 15% in magnitude, according to the large majority of models, but smaller than 5% in magnitude for most regions and models. The southern fleets such as the Iberian and Italian fleets are likely to be the most affected. With regard to variability, changes are essentially small or poorly significant from subdaily to interannual time scales. (letter)

Emerging role of wetland methane emissions in driving 21st century climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhen; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Stenke, Andrea; Li, Xin; Hodson, Elke L; Zhu, Gaofeng; Huang, Chunlin; Poulter, Benjamin

2017-09-05

Wetland methane (CH 4 ) emissions are the largest natural source in the global CH 4 budget, contributing to roughly one third of total natural and anthropogenic emissions. As the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere after CO 2 , CH 4 is strongly associated with climate feedbacks. However, due to the paucity of data, wetland CH 4 feedbacks were not fully assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The degree to which future expansion of wetlands and CH 4 emissions will evolve and consequently drive climate feedbacks is thus a question of major concern. Here we present an ensemble estimate of wetland CH 4 emissions driven by 38 general circulation models for the 21st century. We find that climate change-induced increases in boreal wetland extent and temperature-driven increases in tropical CH 4 emissions will dominate anthropogenic CH 4 emissions by 38 to 56% toward the end of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6). Depending on scenarios, wetland CH 4 feedbacks translate to an increase in additional global mean radiative forcing of 0.04 W·m -2 to 0.19 W·m -2 by the end of the 21st century. Under the "worst-case" RCP8.5 scenario, with no climate mitigation, boreal CH 4 emissions are enhanced by 18.05 Tg to 41.69 Tg, due to thawing of inundated areas during the cold season (December to May) and rising temperature, while tropical CH 4 emissions accelerate with a total increment of 48.36 Tg to 87.37 Tg by 2099. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider mitigation of wetland CH 4 feedbacks to maintain average global warming below 2 °C.

Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st century. Exploration of baseline development and mitigation options

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vuuren DP van; Fengqi Zhou; Vries HJM de; Kejun Jiang; Graveland C; Yun Li; Energy Research Institute,; MNV

2001-01-01

The purpose of the study reported here was to explore possible baseline developments and available options for mitigating emissions in China. The first part of the report deals with an analysis and overview of available data on historic energy production and consumption trends and current energy

Scenario analysis of China's emissions pathways in the 21st century for low carbon transition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Tao; Watson, Jim

2010-01-01

China's growing demand for energy - and its dependence on coal - has seen its carbon emissions increase more than 50% since 2000. Within the debate about mitigating global climate change, there is mounting pressure for emerging economies like China to take more responsibility for reducing their carbon emissions within a post-2012 international climate change policy framework. For China, this leads to fundamental questions about how feasible it is for the country to shift away from its recent carbon intensive pattern of growth. This paper presents some general results of scenarios that have been developed to investigate how China might continue to develop within a cumulative carbon emissions budget. The results show how changes in the key sectors of the Chinese economy could enable China to follow four different low carbon development pathways, each of which complies with a cumulative emissions constraint. Each scenario reflects different priorities for governmental decision making, infrastructure investments and social preferences. Having compared the key features of each scenario, the paper concludes with some implications for Chinese government policy.

Cost-effective and robust mitigation of space debris in low earth orbit

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, R.; Martin, C.

It is predicted that the space debris population in low Earth orbit (LEO) will continue to grow and in an exponential manner in the long-term due to an increasing rate of collisions between large objects, unless internationally-accepted space debris mitigation measures are adopted soon. Such measures are aimed at avoiding the future generation of space debris objects and primarily need to be effective in preventing significant long-term growth in the debris population, even in the potential scenario of an increase in future space activity. It is also important that mitigation measures can limit future debris population levels, and therefore the underlying collision risk to space missions, to the lowest extent possible. However, for their wide acceptance, the cost of implementation associated with mitigation measures needs to be minimised as far as possible. Generally, a lower collision risk will cost more to achieve and vice versa, so it is necessary to strike a balance between cost and risk in order to find a cost-effective set of mitigation measures. In this paper, clear criteria are established in order to assess the cost-effectiveness of space debris mitigation measures. A full cost-risk-benefit trade-off analysis of numerous mitigation scenarios is presented. These scenarios consider explosion prevention and post-mission disposal of space systems, including de-orbiting to limited lifetime orbits and re-orbiting above the LEO region. The ESA DELTA model is used to provide long-term debris environment projections for these scenarios as input to the benefit and risk parts of the trade-off analysis. Manoeuvre requirements for the different post-mission disposal scenarios were also calculated in order to define the cost-related element. A 25-year post-mission lifetime de-orbit policy, combined with explosion prevention and mission-related object limitation, was found to be the most cost-effective solution to the space debris problem in LEO. This package would also

Narrative scenario development based on cross-impact analysis for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hayashi, Ayami; Tokimatsu, Koji; Yamamoto, Hiromi; Mori, Shunsuke

2006-01-01

Social, technological, economic and environmental issues should be considered comprehensively for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options. Existing integrated assessment models include assessment of quantitative factors; however, these models do not explicitly consider interactions among qualitative factors in the background - for example, introductions of nuclear power stations interact with social acceptability. In this paper, we applied a technological forecasting method - the cross-impact method - which explicitly deals with the relationships among relevant factors, and we then developed narrative scenarios having consistency with qualitative social contexts. An example of developed scenarios in 2050, assuming the global population and the gross domestic product are the same as those of the A1 scenario of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, tells us that: (1) the Internet will be extensively used in all regions; (2) the global unified market will appear; (3) regional cultures will tend to converge; (4) long-term investments (of more than 30 years) will become difficult and therefore nuclear-power stations will not increase so remarkably; (5) the self-sufficient supply and diversification of primary energy sources will not progress so rapidly; and (6) due to the widespread use of the Internet, people will be more educated in global environmental issues and environmental costs will be more socially acceptable

Relevance of future snowfall level height in the Peruvian Andes for glacier loss in the 21st century under different emission scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Schauwecker, Simone; Kronenberg, Marlene; Rohrer, Mario; Huggel, Christian; Endries, Jason; Montoya, Nilton; Neukom, Raphael; Perry, Baker; Salzmann, Nadine; Schwarb, Manfred; Suarez, Wilson

2017-04-01

In many regions of Peru, the competition for limited hydrological resources already represents a large risk for conflicts. In this context, and within the circumstances of climate change, there is a great interest in estimating the future loss of Peruvian glaciers. Solid precipitation on glaciers, which affects the shortwave radiation budget via its effects on albedo, in general reduces ablation. For that reason, the height of the upper level of the transition zone between liquid and solid precipitation (snowfall level height) is considered to play a critical role. This snowfall level height is linked to air temperature. The observed and projected warming of the atmosphere is therefore affecting the glaciers amongst others by changing the snowfall level height. Despite the potential significance of these changes for Peruvian glaciers, the relations between snowfall level heights, glacier extents and climate scenarios have been poorly investigated so far. In our study, we first analyse the snowfall level heights over the Peruvian Cordilleras. Second, we investigate the relationship between the present snowfall level heights and current glacier extents. As a third step, we derive projected changes of snowfall level heights from GCMs for the RCP2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios and use them to roughly estimate the end of XXI century glaciation for the Peruvian Cordilleras. Our results indicate a large difference in future glacier extent between the high-emission (pessimistic) RCP8.5 and the low-emission (optimistic) RCP2.6. If global emissions can be substantially reduced, a significant part of the glaciated area of Peru can be maintained. On the contrary, if mitigation is unsuccessful, most of the glacier mass in Peru will be lost during the 21st century. In both cases, but even more so for the high-emission scenario, adaptation will play a critical role and should focus on improvements in water resource management which is essential on a local to regional scale. Air

Forecasting the effects of land use scenarios on farmland birds reveal a potential mitigation of climate change impacts.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karine Princé

Full Text Available Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform

Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options in ISEEM Global Energy Model: 2010-2050 Scenario Analysis for Least-Cost Carbon Reduction in Iron and Steel Sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karali, Nihan; Xu, Tengfang; Sathaye, Jayant

2013-12-01

The goal of the modeling work carried out in this project was to quantify long-term scenarios for the future emission reduction potentials in the iron and steel sector. The main focus of the project is to examine the impacts of carbon reduction options in the U.S. iron and steel sector under a set of selected scenarios. In order to advance the understanding of carbon emission reduction potential on the national and global scales, and to evaluate the regional impacts of potential U.S. mitigation strategies (e.g., commodity and carbon trading), we also included and examined the carbon reduction scenarios in China’s and India’s iron and steel sectors in this project. For this purpose, a new bottom-up energy modeling framework, the Industrial Sector Energy Efficiency Modeling (ISEEM), (Karali et al. 2012) was used to provide detailed annual projections starting from 2010 through 2050. We used the ISEEM modeling framework to carry out detailed analysis, on a country-by-country basis, for the U.S., China’s, and India’s iron and steel sectors. The ISEEM model applicable to iron and steel section, called ISEEM-IS, is developed to estimate and evaluate carbon emissions scenarios under several alternative mitigation options - including policies (e.g., carbon caps), commodity trading, and carbon trading. The projections will help us to better understand emission reduction potentials with technological and economic implications. The database for input of ISEEM-IS model consists of data and information compiled from various resources such as World Steel Association (WSA), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), China Steel Year Books, India Bureau of Mines (IBM), Energy Information Administration (EIA), and recent LBNL studies on bottom-up techno-economic analysis of energy efficiency measures in the iron and steel sector of the U.S., China, and India, including long-term steel production in China. In the ISEEM-IS model, production technology and manufacturing details are

Future Arctic climate changes: Adaptation and mitigation time scales

Science.gov (United States)

Overland, James E.; Wang, Muyin; Walsh, John E.; Stroeve, Julienne C.

2014-02-01

The climate in the Arctic is changing faster than in midlatitudes. This is shown by increased temperatures, loss of summer sea ice, earlier snow melt, impacts on ecosystems, and increased economic access. Arctic sea ice volume has decreased by 75% since the 1980s. Long-lasting global anthropogenic forcing from carbon dioxide has increased over the previous decades and is anticipated to increase over the next decades. Temperature increases in response to greenhouse gases are amplified in the Arctic through feedback processes associated with shifts in albedo, ocean and land heat storage, and near-surface longwave radiation fluxes. Thus, for the next few decades out to 2040, continuing environmental changes in the Arctic are very likely, and the appropriate response is to plan for adaptation to these changes. For example, it is very likely that the Arctic Ocean will become seasonally nearly sea ice free before 2050 and possibly within a decade or two, which in turn will further increase Arctic temperatures, economic access, and ecological shifts. Mitigation becomes an important option to reduce potential Arctic impacts in the second half of the 21st century. Using the most recent set of climate model projections (CMIP5), multimodel mean temperature projections show an Arctic-wide end of century increase of +13°C in late fall and +5°C in late spring for a business-as-usual emission scenario (RCP8.5) in contrast to +7°C in late fall and +3°C in late spring if civilization follows a mitigation scenario (RCP4.5). Such temperature increases demonstrate the heightened sensitivity of the Arctic to greenhouse gas forcing.

Global energy scenarios, climate change and sustainable development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

2003-01-01

Energy scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including various combinations of technology options and their implications. Many scenarios in the literature illustrate how energy system developments may affect global change. Examples are the new emissions scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the energy scenarios by the World Energy Assessment (WEA). Some of these scenarios describe energy futures that are compatible with sustainable development goals; such as improved energy efficiencies and the adoption of advanced energy supply technologies. Sustainable development scenarios are also characterized by low environmental impacts (at local, regional and global scales) and equitable allocation of resources and wealth. They can help explore different transitions toward sustainable development paths and alternative energy perspectives in general. The considerable differences in expected total energy requirements among the scenarios reflect the varying approaches used to address the need for energy services in the future and demonstrate effects of different policy frameworks, changes in human behavior and investments in the future, as well as alternative unfolding of the main scenario driving forces such as demographic transitions, economic development and technological change. Increases in research, development and deployment efforts for new energy technologies are a prerequisite for achieving further social and economic development in the world. Significant technological advances will be required, as well as incremental improvements in conventional energy technologies. In general, significant policy and behavioral changes will be needed during the next few decades to achieve more sustainable development paths and mitigate climate change toward the end of the century. (au)

Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance

Science.gov (United States)

Engström, Kerstin; Lindeskog, Mats; Olin, Stefan; Hassler, John; Smith, Benjamin

2017-09-01

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit damage to the global economy climate-change-induced and secure the livelihoods of future generations requires ambitious mitigation strategies. The introduction of a global carbon tax on fossil fuels is tested here as a mitigation strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing. Taxation of fossil fuels potentially leads to changed composition of energy sources, including a larger relative contribution from bioenergy. Further, the introduction of a mitigation strategy reduces climate-change-induced damage to the global economy, and thus can indirectly affect consumption patterns and investments in agricultural technologies and yield enhancement. Here we assess the implications of changes in bioenergy demand as well as the indirectly caused changes in consumption and crop yields for global and national cropland area and terrestrial biosphere carbon balance. We apply a novel integrated assessment modelling framework, combining three previously published models (a climate-economy model, a socio-economic land use model and an ecosystem model). We develop reference and mitigation scenarios based on the narratives and key elements of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Taking emissions from the land use sector into account, we find that the introduction of a global carbon tax on the fossil fuel sector is an effective mitigation strategy only for scenarios with low population development and strong sustainability criteria (SSP1 Taking the green road). For scenarios with high population growth, low technological development and bioenergy production the high demand for cropland causes the terrestrial biosphere to switch from being a carbon sink to a source by the end of the 21st century.

Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Engström

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit damage to the global economy climate-change-induced and secure the livelihoods of future generations requires ambitious mitigation strategies. The introduction of a global carbon tax on fossil fuels is tested here as a mitigation strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing. Taxation of fossil fuels potentially leads to changed composition of energy sources, including a larger relative contribution from bioenergy. Further, the introduction of a mitigation strategy reduces climate-change-induced damage to the global economy, and thus can indirectly affect consumption patterns and investments in agricultural technologies and yield enhancement. Here we assess the implications of changes in bioenergy demand as well as the indirectly caused changes in consumption and crop yields for global and national cropland area and terrestrial biosphere carbon balance. We apply a novel integrated assessment modelling framework, combining three previously published models (a climate–economy model, a socio-economic land use model and an ecosystem model. We develop reference and mitigation scenarios based on the narratives and key elements of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs. Taking emissions from the land use sector into account, we find that the introduction of a global carbon tax on the fossil fuel sector is an effective mitigation strategy only for scenarios with low population development and strong sustainability criteria (SSP1 Taking the green road. For scenarios with high population growth, low technological development and bioenergy production the high demand for cropland causes the terrestrial biosphere to switch from being a carbon sink to a source by the end of the 21st century.

Response of a multi-stressed Mediterranean river to future climate and socio-economic scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Stefanidis, Konstantinos; Panagopoulos, Yiannis; Mimikou, Maria

2018-06-15

Streams and rivers are among the most threatened ecosystems in Europe due to the combined effects of multiple pressures related to anthropogenic activities. Particularly in the Mediterranean region, changes in hydromorphology along with increased nutrient loadings are known to affect the ecological functions and ecosystem services of streams and rivers with the anticipated climate change being likely to further impair their functionality and structure. In this study, we investigated the combined effects of agricultural driven stressors on the ecology and delivered services of the Pinios river basin in Greece under three future world scenarios developed within the EU funded MARS project. Scenarios are based on combinations of Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and refer to early century (2030) and mid-century (2060) representing future climate worlds with particular socioeconomic characteristics. To assess the responses of ecological and ecosystem service indicators to the scenarios we first simulated hydrology and water quality in Pinios with a process-based model. Simulated abiotic stressor parameters (predictors) were linked to two biotic indicators, the macroinvertebrate indicators ASPT and EPT, with empirical modelling based on boosted regression trees and general linear models. Our results showed that the techno world scenario driven by fast economic growth and intensive exploitation of energy resources had the largest impact on both the abiotic status (nutrient loads and concentrations in water) and the biotic indicators. In contrast, the predicted changes under the other two future worlds, consensus and fragmented, were more diverse and were mostly dictated by the projected climate. This work showed that the future scenarios, especially the mid-century ones, had significant impact on both abiotic status and biotic responses underpinning the need for implementing catchment management practices able to mitigate the

Projections of NH3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in China to 2030 under six mitigation scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Peng; Koloutsou-Vakakis, Sotiria; Rood, Mark J; Luan, Shengji

2017-12-31

China's rapid urbanization, large population, and increasing consumption of calorie-and meat-intensive diets, have resulted in China becoming the world's largest source of ammonia (NH 3 ) emissions from livestock production. This is the first study to use provincial, condition-specific emission factors based on most recently available studies on Chinese manure management and environmental conditions. The estimated NH 3 emission temporal trends and spatial patterns are interpreted in relation to government policies affecting livestock production. Scenario analysis is used to project emissions and estimate mitigation potential of NH 3 emissions, to year 2030. We produce a 1km×1km gridded NH 3 emission inventory for 2008 based on county-level activity data, which can help identify locations of highest NH 3 emissions. The total NH 3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in 2008 were 7.3TgNH 3 ·yr -1 (interquartile range from 6.1 to 8.6TgNH 3 ·yr -1 ), and the major sources were poultry (29.9%), pigs (28.4%), other cattle (27.9%), and dairy cattle (7.0%), while sheep and goats (3.6%), donkeys (1.3%), horses (1.2%), and mules (0.7%) had smaller contributions. From 1978 to 2008, annual NH 3 emissions fluctuated with two peaks (1996 and 2006), and total emissions increased from 2.2 to 7.3Tg·yr -1 increasing on average 4.4%·yr -1 . Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, NH 3 emissions in 2030 are expected to be 13.9TgNH 3 ·yr -1 (11.5-16.3TgNH 3 ·yr -1 ). Under mitigation scenarios, the projected emissions could be reduced by 18.9-37.3% compared to 2030 BAU emissions. This study improves our understanding of NH 3 emissions from livestock production, which is needed to guide stakeholders and policymakers to make well informed mitigation decisions for NH 3 emissions from livestock production at the country and regional levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tsunami hazard in the Caribbean: Regional exposure derived from credible worst case scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Harbitz, C. B.; Glimsdal, S.; Bazin, S.; Zamora, N.; Løvholt, F.; Bungum, H.; Smebye, H.; Gauer, P.; Kjekstad, O.

2012-04-01

The present study documents a high tsunami hazard in the Caribbean region, with several thousands of lives lost in tsunamis and associated earthquakes since the XIXth century. Since then, the coastal population of the Caribbean and the Central West Atlantic region has grown significantly and is still growing. Understanding this hazard is therefore essential for the development of efficient mitigation measures. To this end, we report a regional tsunami exposure assessment based on potential and credible seismic and non-seismic tsunamigenic sources. Regional tsunami databases have been compiled and reviewed, and on this basis five main scenarios have been selected to estimate the exposure. The scenarios comprise two Mw8 earthquake tsunamis (north of Hispaniola and east of Lesser Antilles), two subaerial/submarine volcano flank collapse tsunamis (Montserrat and Saint Lucia), and one tsunami resulting from a landslide on the flanks of the Kick'em Jenny submarine volcano (north of Grenada). Offshore tsunami water surface elevations as well as maximum water level distributions along the shore lines are computed and discussed for each of the scenarios. The number of exposed people has been estimated in each case, together with a summary of the tsunami exposure for the earthquake and the landslide tsunami scenarios. For the earthquake scenarios, the highest tsunami exposure relative to the population is found for Guadeloupe (6.5%) and Antigua (7.5%), while Saint Lucia (4.5%) and Antigua (5%) have been found to have the highest tsunami exposure relative to the population for the landslide scenarios. Such high exposure levels clearly warrant more attention on dedicated mitigation measures in the Caribbean region.

Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Gasparrini, Antonio; Guo, Yuming; Sera, Francesco; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Huber, Veronika; Tong, Shilu; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario; Lavigne, Eric; Matus Correa, Patricia; Valdes Ortega, Nicolas; Kan, Haidong; Osorio, Samuel; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Jaakkola, Jouni J K; Ryti, Niilo R I; Pascal, Mathilde; Goodman, Patrick G; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Hurtado-Diaz, Magali; Cesar Cruz, Julio; Seposo, Xerxes; Kim, Ho; Tobias, Aurelio; Iñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Daniel Oudin; Ragettli, Martina S; Guo, Yue Leon; Wu, Chang-Fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Bell, Michelle L; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Van, Dung Do; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Hajat, Shakoor; Haines, Andy; Armstrong, Ben

2017-12-01

-related impacts and extremely large net increases, with the net change at the end of the century ranging from 3·0% (-3·0 to 9·3) in Central America to 12·7% (-4·7 to 28·1) in southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario. Most of the health effects directly due to temperature increase could be avoided under scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit emissions and further warming of the planet. This study shows the negative health impacts of climate change that, under high-emission scenarios, would disproportionately affect warmer and poorer regions of the world. Comparison with lower emission scenarios emphasises the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated health risks. UK Medical Research Council.

Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-05-01

This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davidson, Eric A; Kanter, David

2014-01-01

Effective mitigation for N 2 O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N 2 O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N 2 O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N 2 O-N yr −1 . Net anthropogenic N 2 O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N 2 O-N yr −1 . Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N 2 O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N 2 O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N 2 O emissions is highly uncertain; N 2 O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N 2 O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions. (paper)

Balance between climate change mitigation benefits and land use impacts of bioenergy: conservation implications for European birds.

Science.gov (United States)

Meller, Laura; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pironon, Samuel; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Hof, Andries; Cabeza, Mar

2015-07-01

Both climate change and habitat modification exert serious pressure on biodiversity. Although climate change mitigation has been identified as an important strategy for biodiversity conservation, bioenergy remains a controversial mitigation action due to its potential negative ecological and socio-economic impacts which arise through habitat modification by land-use change. While the debate continues, the separate or simultaneous impacts of both climate change and bioenergy on biodiversity have not yet been compared. We assess projected range shifts of 156 European bird species by 2050 under two alternative climate change trajectories: a baseline scenario, where the global mean temperature increases by 4°C by the end of the century, and a 2 degrees scenario, where global concerted effort limits the temperature increase to below 2°C. For the latter scenario, we also quantify the pressure exerted by increased cultivation of energy biomass as modelled by IMAGE2.4, an integrated land-use model. The global bioenergy use in this scenario is in the lower end of the range of previously estimated sustainable potential. Under the assumptions of these scenarios, we find that the magnitude of range shifts due to climate change is far greater than the impact of land conversion to woody bioenergy plantations within the European Union, and that mitigation of climate change reduces the exposure experienced by species. However, we identified potential for local conservation conflict between priority areas for conservation and bioenergy production. These conflicts must be addressed by strict bioenergy sustainability criteria that acknowledge biodiversity conservation needs beyond existing protected areas and apply also to biomass imported from outside the European Union.

Contributions of internal climate variability to mitigation of projected future regional sea level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, A.; Bates, S. C.

2017-12-01

Observations indicate that the global mean surface temperature is rising, so does the global mean sea level. Sea level rise (SLR) can impose significant impacts on island and coastal communities, especially when SLR is compounded with storm surges. Here, via analyzing results from two sets of ensemble simulations from the Community Earth System Model version 1, we investigate how the potential SLR benefits through mitigating the future emission scenarios from business as usual to a mild-mitigation over the 21st Century would be affected by internal climate variability. Results show that there is almost no SLR benefit in the near term due to the large SLR variability due to the internal ocean dynamics. However, toward the end of the 21st century, the SLR benefit can be as much as a 26±1% reduction of the global mean SLR due to seawater thermal expansion. Regionally, the benefits from this mitigation for both near and long terms are heterogeneous. They vary from just a 11±5% SLR reduction in Melbourne, Australia to a 35±6% reduction in London. The processes contributing to these regional differences are the coupling of the wind-driven ocean circulation with the decadal scale sea surface temperature mode in the Pacific and Southern Oceans, and the changes of the thermohaline circulation and the mid-latitude air-sea coupling in the Atlantic.

Efficient and sustainable deployment of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in mitigation pathways

Science.gov (United States)

Kato, E.; Moriyama, R.; Kurosawa, A.

2016-12-01

Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socio-economic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise well below 2°C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions at the end of the 21st century. Also, in the Paris agreement from COP21, it is denoted "a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century" which could require large scale deployment of negative emissions technologies later in this century. Because of the additional requirement for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of large-scale BECCS. In this study, we present possible development strategies of low carbon scenarios that consider interaction of economically efficient deployment of bioenergy and/or BECCS technologies, biophysical limit of bioenergy productivity, and food production. In the evaluations, detailed bioenergy representations, including bioenergy feedstocks and conversion technologies with and without CCS, are implemented in an integrated assessment model GRAPE. Also, to overcome a general discrepancy about yield development between 'top-down' integrate assessment models and 'bottom-up' estimates, we applied yields changes of food and bioenergy crops consistent with process-based biophysical models; PRYSBI-2 (Process-Based Regional-Scale Yield Simulator with Bayesian Inference) for food crops, and SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for bioenergy crops in changing climate conditions. Using the framework, economically viable strategy for implementing sustainable BECCS are evaluated.

Mitigation of global warming through renewable biomass

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dhillon, R.S.; Wuehlisch, George von

2013-01-01

Rising level of atmospheric CO 2 and consequent global warming is evident. Global surface temperature have already increased by 0.8 °C over the 20th century and is projected to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C during the twenty-first century. The global warming will continue till atmospheric concentrations of the major greenhouse gases are stabilized. Among them, CO 2 is mainly responsible and is expected to account for about 60% of the warming over the next century. This study reviews advances on causes and consequences of global climate change and its impact on nature and society. Renewable biomass has tremendous potential to mitigate the global warming. Renewable biomass is expected to play a multifunctional role including food production, source of energy and fodder, biodiversity conservation, yield of goods and services to the society as well as mitigation of the impact of climate change. The review highlights the different management and research strategies in forestry, agriculture, agroforestry and grasslands to mitigate the global warming. -- Highlights: ► Rising level of atmospheric CO 2 and consequent global warming is evident. ► CO 2 is mainly responsible for global warming. ► Global temperature is predicted to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C during 21st century. ► Renewable biomass has great potential to mitigate the global warming

Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Reed, Patrick M.; Link, Robert; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

2018-03-01

An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result from very different socioeconomic and policy drivers. The framework builds on the Scenario Matrix Framework's abstraction of "challenges to mitigation" and "challenges to adaptation" to facilitate the flexible discovery of diverse and consequential scenarios. We combine visual and statistical techniques for interrogating a large factorial data set of 33,750 scenarios generated using the Global Change Assessment Model. We demonstrate how the analytic framework can aid in identifying which scenario assumptions are most tied to user-specified measures for policy relevant outcomes of interest, specifically for our example high or low mitigation costs. We show that the current approach for selecting reference scenarios can miss policy relevant scenario narratives that often emerge as hybrids of optimistic and pessimistic scenario assumptions. We also show that the same scenario assumption can be associated with both high and low mitigation costs depending on the climate outcome of interest and the mitigation policy context. In the illustrative example, we show how agricultural productivity, population growth, and economic growth are most predictive of the level of mitigation costs. Formulating policy relevant scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures benefits from large ensemble-based exploration of quantitative measures of consequences. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support "bottom-up" scenario generation techniques that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

An assessment of the potentials of nuclear power and carbon capture and storage in the long-term global warming mitigation options based on Asian Modeling Exercise scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mori, Shunsuke

2012-01-01

This paper presents an evaluation of global warming mitigation options based on scenarios from the Asian Modeling Exercise. Using an extended version of the integrated assessment model MARIA-23 (Multiregional Approach for Resource and Industry Allocation), we analyze nuclear fuel recycling options, carbon capture and storage technologies (CCS), and biomass utilization. To assess the potential implications of decreased social acceptance of nuclear power in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident, additional scenarios including a nuclear power expansion limitation, are analyzed. We also evaluate MARIA-23 model simulation estimates of long-term contributions and interrelationships among nuclear power, biomass, and CCS. Finally, potential costs of nuclear limitation under carbon control policies are assessed. The simulation results in this paper suggest the following: (1) under the reference scenario, global GDP losses in climate limitation scenarios range from 1.3% per year to 3.9% per year in 2060, rising to between 3.5% per year and 4.5% per year in 2100; (2) the use of nuclear fuel reprocessing technologies increase rapidly in all carbon control policy scenarios; (3) under a scenario where the price of CO 2 is $30 and nuclear power expansion is strictly limited, GDP losses increase significantly—from 4.5% per year to 6.4% per year by 2100; (4) nuclear power and CCS are substitute mitigation technologies. With nuclear power technology available CCS deployment reaches approximately 15,000 Mt-CO 2 per year by 2010; without a nuclear power option, CCS deployment rises to more than 80,000 Mt-CO 2 per year; and (5) biomass utilization cannot fully compensate for limitations to nuclear power expansion in policy scenarios. In addition to examining the role of these three technologies on global scales, we report results for several major Asian regions, namely Japan, China, and India. China tends to deploy nuclear power (if available) in response to rapidly growing

Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McDonald, Alan; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Hans-Holger

2003-01-01

The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

Regional climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Somot, S.

2005-01-01

Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

Evolution of spatio-temporal drought characteristics: validation, projections and effect of adaptation scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Vidal, J.-P.; Martin, E.; Kitova, N.; Najac, J.; Soubeyroux, J.-M.

2012-08-01

Drought events develop in both space and time and they are therefore best described through summary joint spatio-temporal characteristics, such as mean duration, mean affected area and total magnitude. This paper addresses the issue of future projections of such characteristics of drought events over France through three main research questions: (1) Are downscaled climate projections able to simulate spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural droughts in France over a present-day period? (2) How such characteristics will evolve over the 21st century? (3) How to use standardized drought indices to represent theoretical adaptation scenarios? These questions are addressed using the Isba land surface model, downscaled climate projections from the ARPEGE General Circulation Model under three emissions scenarios, as well as results from a previously performed 50-yr multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France. Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural drought events are computed using the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Soil Wetness Index, respectively, and for time scales of 3 and 12 months. Results first show that the distributions of joint spatio-temporal characteristics of observed events are well simulated by the downscaled hydroclimate projections over a present-day period. All spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events are then found to dramatically increase over the 21st century, with stronger changes for agricultural droughts. Two theoretical adaptation scenarios are eventually built based on hypotheses of adaptation to evolving climate and hydrological normals, either retrospective or prospective. The perceived spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events derived from these theoretical adaptation scenarios show much reduced changes, but they call for more realistic scenarios at both the catchment and national scale in order to accurately assess the combined effect of

Air quality in the mid-21. century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from the regional to local scale

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; Perrussel, O.; Honore, C.; Vautard, R.; Klimont, Z.; Rao, S.

2014-01-01

Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km x 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. A high-resolution (1 km x 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional-scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10-year control simulation. Ozone is in very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by 20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present-day levels over Paris is modeled under the 'business-as-usual' scenario (+7 ppb) while a more optimistic 'mitigation' scenario leads to a moderate ozone decrease (-3.5 ppb) in year 2050. These results are substantially different to previous regional scale projections where 2050 ozone is found to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the current urban-scale study is driven by volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited chemistry, whereas at the regional-scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at different scales. In rural areas, projections at both scales yield similar results showing that the longer timescale processes of emission transport and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under business-as usual and mitigation scenarios, respectively, compared to the present-day period. The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions

Air-quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from regional to local scale

Science.gov (United States)

Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; Perrussel, O.; Honore, C.; Vautard, R.; Klimont, Z.; Rao, S.

2014-01-01

Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. High-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10 yr control simulation. Ozone is in very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by 20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present time levels over Paris is modeled under the "business as usual" scenario (+7 ppb) while a more optimistic mitigation scenario leads to moderate ozone decrease (-3.5 ppb) in year 2050. These results are substantially different to previous regional scale projections where 2050 ozone is found to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the current, urban scale study, is driven by VOC-limited chemistry, whereas at the regional scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at different scales. In rural areas projections at both scales yield similar results showing that the longer time-scale processes of emission transport and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under "business as usual" and "mitigation" scenarios respectively compared to present time period. The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions resulting in the smoothing of the large urban increment

Climate change mitigation policies and poverty in developing countries

Science.gov (United States)

Hussein, Zekarias; Hertel, Thomas; Golub, Alla

2013-09-01

Mitigation of the potential impacts of climate change is one of the leading policy concerns of the 21st century. However, there continues to be heated debate about the nature, the content and, most importantly, the impact of the policy actions needed to limit greenhouse gas emissions. One contributing factor is the lack of systematic evidence on the impact of mitigation policy on the welfare of the poor in developing countries. In this letter we consider two alternative policy scenarios, one in which only the Annex I countries take action, and the second in which the first policy is accompanied by a forest carbon sequestration policy in the non-Annex regions. Using an economic climate policy analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of the above policy scenarios on seven socio-economic groups in 14 developing countries. We find that the Annex-I-only policy is poverty friendly, since it enhances the competitiveness of non-Annex countries—particularly in agricultural production. However, once forest carbon sequestration incentives in the non-Annex regions are added to the policy package, the overall effect is to raise poverty in the majority of our sample countries. The reason for this outcome is that the dominant impacts of this policy are to raise returns to land, reduce agricultural output and raise food prices. Since poor households rely primarily on their own labor for income, and generally own little land, and since they also spend a large share of their income on food, they are generally hurt on both the earning and the spending fronts. This result is troubling, since forest carbon sequestration—particularly through avoided deforestation—is a promising, low cost option for climate change mitigation.

Climate change mitigation policies and poverty in developing countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hussein, Zekarias; Hertel, Thomas; Golub, Alla

2013-01-01

Mitigation of the potential impacts of climate change is one of the leading policy concerns of the 21st century. However, there continues to be heated debate about the nature, the content and, most importantly, the impact of the policy actions needed to limit greenhouse gas emissions. One contributing factor is the lack of systematic evidence on the impact of mitigation policy on the welfare of the poor in developing countries. In this letter we consider two alternative policy scenarios, one in which only the Annex I countries take action, and the second in which the first policy is accompanied by a forest carbon sequestration policy in the non-Annex regions. Using an economic climate policy analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of the above policy scenarios on seven socio-economic groups in 14 developing countries. We find that the Annex-I-only policy is poverty friendly, since it enhances the competitiveness of non-Annex countries—particularly in agricultural production. However, once forest carbon sequestration incentives in the non-Annex regions are added to the policy package, the overall effect is to raise poverty in the majority of our sample countries. The reason for this outcome is that the dominant impacts of this policy are to raise returns to land, reduce agricultural output and raise food prices. Since poor households rely primarily on their own labor for income, and generally own little land, and since they also spend a large share of their income on food, they are generally hurt on both the earning and the spending fronts. This result is troubling, since forest carbon sequestration—particularly through avoided deforestation—is a promising, low cost option for climate change mitigation. (letter)

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

Quantifying the biophysical climate change mitigation potential of Canada's forest sector

Science.gov (United States)

Smyth, C. E.; Stinson, G.; Neilson, E.; Lemprière, T. C.; Hafer, M.; Rampley, G. J.; Kurz, W. A.

2014-07-01

The potential of forests and the forest sector to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is widely recognized, but challenging to quantify at a national scale. Forests and their carbon (C) sequestration potential are affected by management practices, where wood harvesting transfers C out of the forest into products, and subsequent regrowth allows further C sequestration. Here we determine the mitigation potential of the 2.3 × 106 km2 of Canada's managed forests from 2015 to 2050 using the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3), a harvested wood products (HWP) model that estimates emissions based on product half-life decay times, and an account of emission substitution benefits from the use of wood products and bioenergy. We examine several mitigation scenarios with different assumptions about forest management activity levels relative to a base case scenario, including improved growth from silvicultural activities, increased harvest and residue management for bioenergy, and reduced harvest for conservation. We combine forest management options with two mitigation scenarios for harvested wood product use involving an increase in either long-lived products or bioenergy uses. Results demonstrate large differences among alternative scenarios, and we identify potential mitigation scenarios with increasing benefits to the atmosphere for many decades into the future, as well as scenarios with no net benefit over many decades. The greatest mitigation impact was achieved through a mix of strategies that varied across the country and had cumulative mitigation of 254 Tg CO2e in 2030, and 1180 Tg CO2e in 2050. There was a trade-off between short-term and long-term goals, in that maximizing short-term emissions reduction could reduce the forest sector's ability to contribute to longer-term objectives. We conclude that (i) national-scale forest sector mitigation options need to be assessed rigorously from a systems perspective to avoid the development of

Adjusting Mitigation Pathways to Stabilize Climate at 1.5°C and 2.0°C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300

Science.gov (United States)

Goodwin, Philip; Brown, Sally; Haigh, Ivan David; Nicholls, Robert James; Matter, Juerg M.

2018-03-01

To avoid the most dangerous consequences of anthropogenic climate change, the Paris Agreement provides a clear and agreed climate mitigation target of stabilizing global surface warming to under 2.0°C above preindustrial, and preferably closer to 1.5°C. However, policy makers do not currently know exactly what carbon emissions pathways to follow to stabilize warming below these agreed targets, because there is large uncertainty in future temperature rise for any given pathway. This large uncertainty makes it difficult for a cautious policy maker to avoid either: (1) allowing warming to exceed the agreed target or (2) cutting global emissions more than is required to satisfy the agreed target, and their associated societal costs. This study presents a novel Adjusting Mitigation Pathway (AMP) approach to restrict future warming to policy-driven targets, in which future emissions reductions are not fully determined now but respond to future surface warming each decade in a self-adjusting manner. A large ensemble of Earth system model simulations, constrained by geological and historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self-adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5°C to 4.5°C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for surface warming, carbon emissions, atmospheric CO2, global mean sea level, and surface ocean acidification. We find that lower 21st century warming targets will significantly reduce ocean acidification this century, and will avoid up to 4 m of sea-level rise by year 2300 relative to a high-end scenario.

Role of technologies in energy-related CO2 mitigation in China within a climate-protection world: A scenarios analysis using REMIND

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Shuwei; Bauer, Nico; Luderer, Gunnar; Kriegler, Elmar

2014-01-01

Highlights: • The augmented REMIND model is used to study the role of energy technologies under a carbon tax. • The scale and timing of fossil fuels with CCS, nuclear, and renewables are examined. • CCS is important but the window of opportunity for its deployment is limited. • The effectiveness of nuclear is strongly linked to its cost performance. • Renewable energy is a long-term mitigation option. - Abstract: In a world with the need of climate protection through emission reduction, China’s domestic mitigation will be put on the national agenda. The large-scale deployment of innovative technologies induced by climate policies is a key determinant for reducing emissions in an effective and efficient manner. A distinguishing feature of the Chinese energy sector (especially electricity generation), is that investment costs are significantly lower than in other world regions. Represented in the methodological framework of the augmented REMIND model, three promising mitigation technologies (also known as technology clusters) in the electricity sector: CCS with advanced coal-generation technologies, nuclear, and renewables are the focus of this study. The scenarios are designed to analyze the roles of these technologies and their associated economic impacts under a climate policy (i.e., a carbon tax). Our results indicate that: (1)Technology policies improving the techno-economic features of low-carbon technologies are insufficient to restrain China’s increasing emissions. (2)Carbon-pricing policies can effectively reduce emissions by making low-carbon options more competitive than conventional fossil fuel alternatives. In the global carbon tax regime framed in this paper, China’s mitigation potential is larger than that of any of other region and the peak of emissions occurs earlier (by 2020) and is 50% lower than in the BASE scenario. (3)CCS is important, but the window of opportunity for its deployment is limited to the near- to mid-term future. It

Thermal power - emerging scenario in the 21st Century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saran, Keshav

2000-01-01

The developing countries have to ensure that their development in the new millennium is supported by a strong infrastructure to meet the challenges of this century where survival would be of the fittest. In India, globalization of economy will be the main thrust in this century. Today self reliance and determination is needed to develop, adopt and implement new technologies which are more efficient and eco-friendly. The economy of the country calls for a higher rate of growth in the power infrastructure. To ensure the momentum of 7 per cent overall growth in the economy, India need about 12-14 per cent growth in power generation. In power sector, selection of resources, systems, fuel options and appropriate technology would be major determinants that will decide the success for sustained development in the new century

Air quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from the regional to local scale

Science.gov (United States)

Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; Perrussel, O.; Honore, C.; Vautard, R.; Klimont, Z.; Rao, S.

2014-07-01

Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. A high-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional-scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10-year control simulation. Ozone is in very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by 20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present-day levels over Paris is modeled under the "business-as-usual" scenario (+7 ppb) while a more optimistic "mitigation" scenario leads to a moderate ozone decrease (-3.5 ppb) in year 2050. These results are substantially different to previous regional-scale projections where 2050 ozone is found to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the current urban-scale study is driven by volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited chemistry, whereas at the regional-scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at different scales. In rural areas, projections at both scales yield similar results showing that the longer timescale processes of emission transport and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios, respectively, compared to the present-day period. The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions resulting in the

Microalgae biorefineries: The Brazilian scenario in perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Brasil, B S A F; Silva, F C P; Siqueira, F G

2017-10-25

Biorefineries have the potential to meet a significant part of the growing demand for energy, fuels, chemicals and materials worldwide. Indeed, the bio-based industry is expected to play a major role in energy security and climate change mitigation during the 21th century. Despite this, there are challenges related to resource consumption, processing optimization and waste minimization that still need to be overcome. In this context, microalgae appear as a promising non-edible feedstock with advantages over traditional land crops, such as high productivity, continuous harvesting throughout the year and minimal problems regarding land use. Importantly, both cultivation and microalgae processing can take place at the same site, which increases the possibilities for process integration and a reduction in logistic costs at biorefinery facilities. This review describes the actual scenario for microalgae biorefineries integration to the biofuels and petrochemical industries in Brazil, while highlighting the major challenges and recent advances in microalgae large-scale production. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using land to mitigate climate change: hitting the target, recognizing the trade-offs.

Science.gov (United States)

Reilly, John; Melillo, Jerry; Cai, Yongxia; Kicklighter, David; Gurgel, Angelo; Paltsev, Sergey; Cronin, Timothy; Sokolov, Andrei; Schlosser, Adam

2012-06-05

Land can be used in several ways to mitigate climate change, but especially under changing environmental conditions there may be implications for food prices. Using an integrated global system model, we explore the roles that these land-use options can play in a global mitigation strategy to stabilize Earth's average temperature within 2 °C of the preindustrial level and their impacts on agriculture. We show that an ambitious global Energy-Only climate policy that includes biofuels would likely not achieve the 2 °C target. A thought-experiment where the world ideally prices land carbon fluxes combined with biofuels (Energy+Land policy) gets the world much closer. Land could become a large net carbon sink of about 178 Pg C over the 21st century with price incentives in the Energy+Land scenario. With land carbon pricing but without biofuels (a No-Biofuel scenario) the carbon sink is nearly identical to the case with biofuels, but emissions from energy are somewhat higher, thereby results in more warming. Absent such incentives, land is either a much smaller net carbon sink (+37 Pg C - Energy-Only policy) or a net source (-21 Pg C - No-Policy). The significant trade-off with this integrated land-use approach is that prices for agricultural products rise substantially because of mitigation costs borne by the sector and higher land prices. Share of income spent on food for wealthier regions continues to fall, but for the poorest regions, higher food prices lead to a rising share of income spent on food.

The effects of adaptation and mitigation on coastal flood impacts during the 21st century. An application of the DIVA and IMAGE models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hinkel, J.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Nicholls, R.J.; Klein, R.J.T.

2012-01-01

This paper studies the effects of mitigation and adaptation on coastal flood impacts. We focus on a scenario that stabilizes concentrations at 450 ppm-CO 2-eq leading to 42 cm of global mean sea-level rise in 1995-2100 (GMSLR) and an unmitigated one leading to 63 cm of GMSLR. We also consider

Assessment of the water supply:demand ratios in a Mediterranean basin under different global change scenarios and mitigation alternatives.

Science.gov (United States)

Boithias, Laurie; Acuña, Vicenç; Vergoñós, Laura; Ziv, Guy; Marcé, Rafael; Sabater, Sergi

2014-02-01

Spatial differences in the supply and demand of ecosystem services such as water provisioning often imply that the demand for ecosystem services cannot be fulfilled at the local scale, but it can be fulfilled at larger scales (regional, continental). Differences in the supply:demand (S:D) ratio for a given service result in different values, and these differences might be assessed with monetary or non-monetary metrics. Water scarcity occurs where and when water resources are not enough to meet all the demands, and this affects equally the service of water provisioning and the ecosystem needs. In this study we assess the value of water in a Mediterranean basin under different global change (i.e. both climate and anthropogenic changes) and mitigation scenarios, with a non-monetary metric: the S:D ratio. We computed water balances across the Ebro basin (North-East Spain) with the spatially explicit InVEST model. We highlight the spatial and temporal mismatches existing across a single hydrological basin regarding water provisioning and its consumption, considering or not, the environmental demand (environmental flow). The study shows that water scarcity is commonly a local issue (sub-basin to region), but that all demands are met at the largest considered spatial scale (basin). This was not the case in the worst-case scenario (increasing demands and decreasing supply), as the S:D ratio at the basin scale was near 1, indicating that serious problems of water scarcity might occur in the near future even at the basin scale. The analysis of possible mitigation scenarios reveals that the impact of global change may be counteracted by the decrease of irrigated areas. Furthermore, the comparison between a non-monetary (S:D ratio) and a monetary (water price) valuation metrics reveals that the S:D ratio provides similar values and might be therefore used as a spatially explicit metric to valuate the ecosystem service water provisioning. © 2013.

Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

Science.gov (United States)

Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

2015-01-01

Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

SAFRR Tsunami Scenarios and USGS-NTHMP Collaboration

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, S.; Wood, N. J.; Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.; Gately, K.; Jones, J. L.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Richards, K.; Wein, A. M.; Wilson, R. I.

2015-12-01

Hazard scenarios provide emergency managers and others with information to help them prepare for future disasters. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, published in 2013, modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. It presented the modeled inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. It provided the basis for many exercises involving, among others, NOAA, the State of Washington, several counties in California, and the National Institutes of Health. The scenario led to improvements in the warning protocol for southern California and highlighted issues that led to ongoing work on harbor and marina safety. Building on the lessons learned in the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, another tsunami scenario is being developed with impacts to Hawaii and to the source region in Alaska, focusing on the evacuation issues of remote communities with primarily shore parallel roads, and also on the effects of port closures. Community exposure studies in Hawaii (Ratliff et al., USGS-SIR, 2015) provided background for selecting these foci. One complicated and important aspect of any hazard scenario is defining the source event. The USGS is building collaborations with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to consider issues involved in developing a standardized set of tsunami sources to support hazard mitigation work. Other key USGS-NTHMP collaborations involve population vulnerability and evacuation modeling.

The relative impact of climate change mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity - An integrated assessment modeling approach

Science.gov (United States)

Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J. A.; Clarke, L. E.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Chaturvedi, V.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Kim, S.; Calvin, K. V.; Moss, R. H.

2012-12-01

We investigate the relative effects of climate emission mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally, by estimating both water availability and demand within a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change - the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We first develop a global gridded monthly hydrologic model that reproduces historical streamflow observations and simulates the future availability of freshwater under both a changing climate and an evolving landscape, and incorporate this model into GCAM. We then develop and incorporate technologically oriented representations of water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. To perform the water scarcity analysis at the grid scale, the global water demands for the six demand sectors are spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. The water scarcity index (WSI) compares total water demand to the total amount of renewable water available, and defines extreme water scarcity in any region as demand greater than 40% of total water availability. Using a reference scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 by 2095 and a global population of 14 billion, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demands for water exceed the total

Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking

Science.gov (United States)

Brecha, R.

2008-12-01

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some

Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

2011-12-01

A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

Drivers of the tropospheric ozone budget throughout the 21st century under the medium-high climate scenario RCP 6.0

Science.gov (United States)

Revell, L. E.; Tummon, F.; Stenke, A.; Sukhodolov, T.; Coulon, A.; Rozanov, E.; Garny, H.; Grewe, V.; Peter, T.

2015-05-01

Because tropospheric ozone is both a greenhouse gas and harmful air pollutant, it is important to understand how anthropogenic activities may influence its abundance and distribution through the 21st century. Here, we present model simulations performed with the chemistry-climate model SOCOL, in which spatially disaggregated chemistry and transport tracers have been implemented in order to better understand the distribution and projected changes in tropospheric ozone. We examine the influences of ozone precursor emissions (nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs)), climate change (including methane effects) and stratospheric ozone recovery on the tropospheric ozone budget, in a simulation following the climate scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0 (a medium-high, and reasonably realistic climate scenario). Changes in ozone precursor emissions have the largest effect, leading to a global-mean increase in tropospheric ozone which maximizes in the early 21st century at 23% compared to 1960. The increase is most pronounced at northern midlatitudes, due to regional emission patterns: between 1990 and 2060, northern midlatitude tropospheric ozone remains at constantly large abundances: 31% larger than in 1960. Over this 70-year period, attempts to reduce emissions in Europe and North America do not have an effect on zonally averaged northern midlatitude ozone because of increasing emissions from Asia, together with the long lifetime of ozone in the troposphere. A simulation with fixed anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions of NOx, CO and non-methane VOCs at 1960 conditions shows a 6% increase in global-mean tropospheric ozone by the end of the 21st century, with an 11 % increase at northern midlatitudes. This increase maximizes in the 2080s and is mostly caused by methane, which maximizes in the 2080s following RCP 6.0, and plays an important role in controlling ozone directly, and indirectly through its

Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

Science.gov (United States)

Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

2011-01-01

Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

Projections of rapidly rising surface temperatures over Africa under low mitigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Engelbrecht, Francois; Bopape, Mary-Jane; Naidoo, Mogesh; Garland, Rebecca; Adegoke, Jimmy; Thatcher, Marcus; McGregor, John; Katzfey, Jack; Werner, Micha; Ichoku, Charles; Gatebe, Charles

2015-01-01

An analysis of observed trends in African annual-average near-surface temperatures over the last five decades reveals drastic increases, particularly over parts of the subtropics and central tropical Africa. Over these regions, temperatures have been rising at more than twice the global rate of temperature increase. An ensemble of high-resolution downscalings, obtained using a single regional climate model forced with the sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice fields of an ensemble of global circulation model (GCM) simulations, is shown to realistically represent the relatively strong temperature increases observed in subtropical southern and northern Africa. The amplitudes of warming are generally underestimated, however. Further warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with plausible increases of 4–6 °C over the subtropics and 3–5 °C over the tropics by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (a low mitigation) scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. High impact climate events such as heat-wave days and high fire-danger days are consistently projected to increase drastically in their frequency of occurrence. General decreases in soil-moisture availability are projected, even for regions where increases in rainfall are plausible, due to enhanced levels of evaporation. The regional dowscalings presented here, and recent GCM projections obtained for Africa, indicate that African annual-averaged temperatures may plausibly rise at about 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the subtropics, and at a somewhat lower rate in the tropics. These projected increases although drastic, may be conservative given the model underestimations of observed temperature trends. The relatively strong rate of warming over Africa, in combination with the associated increases in extreme temperature events, may be key factors to consider when interpreting the suitability of global mitigation targets in terms of

Extended blackout mitigation strategy for PWR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prošek, Andrej; Volkanovski, Andrija

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Equipment for mitigation of the extended blackout is investigated. • Analysis is done with deterministic safety analysis methods. • Strategy to prevent core heatup and not overfill steam generator is proposed. • Six types of reactor coolant system loss scenarios are investigated. • Pump flowrates and available start time to feed steam generators is determined. - Abstract: The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant demonstrated the vulnerability of the plants on the loss of electrical power and loss of the ultimate heat sink events. A set of measures are proposed and currently implemented in response of the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. Those measures include diverse and flexible mitigation strategies that increase the defence-in-depth for beyond-design-basis scenarios. Mitigation strategies are based on the utilization of the portable equipment to provide power and water to the nuclear power plants in order to maintain or restore key safety functions. The verification of the proposed measures with the plant specific safety analyses is endorsed in the mitigation strategies. This paper investigates utilization of the turbine driven auxiliary feedwater pump (TD-AFW) or portable water injection pump for the mitigation of the event of loss of all alternate current sources and batteries (extended station blackout). Methodology for assessment of the required pump injection flow rate with the application of the standard deterministic safety analysis code is developed and presented. The required injection rate to the steam generators is calculated from the cumulative water mass injected by the turbine driven auxiliary feedwater pump in the analysed scenarios, when desired normal level is maintained automatically. The developed methodology allows assessment of the required injections rates of pump, TD-AFW or portable, for different plant configurations and number of flow rate changes. The methodology is applied

Extended blackout mitigation strategy for PWR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prošek, Andrej, E-mail: andrej.prosek@ijs.si; Volkanovski, Andrija, E-mail: andrija.volkanovski@ijs.si

2015-12-15

Highlights: • Equipment for mitigation of the extended blackout is investigated. • Analysis is done with deterministic safety analysis methods. • Strategy to prevent core heatup and not overfill steam generator is proposed. • Six types of reactor coolant system loss scenarios are investigated. • Pump flowrates and available start time to feed steam generators is determined. - Abstract: The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant demonstrated the vulnerability of the plants on the loss of electrical power and loss of the ultimate heat sink events. A set of measures are proposed and currently implemented in response of the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. Those measures include diverse and flexible mitigation strategies that increase the defence-in-depth for beyond-design-basis scenarios. Mitigation strategies are based on the utilization of the portable equipment to provide power and water to the nuclear power plants in order to maintain or restore key safety functions. The verification of the proposed measures with the plant specific safety analyses is endorsed in the mitigation strategies. This paper investigates utilization of the turbine driven auxiliary feedwater pump (TD-AFW) or portable water injection pump for the mitigation of the event of loss of all alternate current sources and batteries (extended station blackout). Methodology for assessment of the required pump injection flow rate with the application of the standard deterministic safety analysis code is developed and presented. The required injection rate to the steam generators is calculated from the cumulative water mass injected by the turbine driven auxiliary feedwater pump in the analysed scenarios, when desired normal level is maintained automatically. The developed methodology allows assessment of the required injections rates of pump, TD-AFW or portable, for different plant configurations and number of flow rate changes. The methodology is applied

Integrating uncertainties for climate change mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Rogelj, Joeri; McCollum, David; Reisinger, Andy; Meinshausen, Malte; Riahi, Keywan

2013-04-01

The target of keeping global average temperature increase to below 2°C has emerged in the international climate debate more than a decade ago. In response, the scientific community has tried to estimate the costs of reaching such a target through modelling and scenario analysis. Producing such estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well-known, but ill-quantified uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines. The integrated assessment community, on one side, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs. The climate modelling community, on the other side, has worked on achieving an increasingly better understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty for the cost of mitigation scenarios but has only been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in a rudimentary manner, i.e., for equilibrium conditions. To bridge this gap between the two research communities, we generate distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific temperature limits, taking into account uncertainties in multiple dimensions: geophysical, technological, social and political. In other words, uncertainties resulting from our incomplete knowledge about how the climate system precisely reacts to GHG emissions (geophysical uncertainties), about how society will develop (social uncertainties and choices), which technologies will be available (technological uncertainty and choices), when we choose to start acting globally on climate change (political choices), and how much money we are or are not willing to spend to achieve climate change mitigation. We find that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost-risk distribution, followed by

Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation.

Science.gov (United States)

Jantz, Samuel M; Barker, Brian; Brooks, Thomas M; Chini, Louise P; Huang, Qiongyu; Moore, Rachel M; Noel, Jacob; Hurtt, George C

2015-08-01

Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land-use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate-change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate-change impacts; however, these policies will influence land-use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land-use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land-use changes (1500-2005) based on the global gridded land-use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land-use changes under alternative climate-change scenarios (2005-2100). Future land-use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26-58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land-use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate-change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species-area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land-use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land-use changes in hotspots or by

Thailand's Low-Carbon Scenario 2050: The AIM/CGE analyses of CO2 mitigation measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thepkhun, Panida; Limmeechokchai, Bundit; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Masui, Toshihiko; Shrestha, Ram M.

2013-01-01

Climate change and CO 2 mitigation have become increasingly important environmental issues. Recently Thailand has proposed policies on GHG mitigation such as Thailand’s Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA), which aims at GHG mitigation in the energy sector. This study used the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, called “AIM/CGE” model, to analyse GHG mitigation measures under emission trading and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology in Thailand. Results show that the international free emission trading policy can drive more GHG reduction by decreasing energy supply and demand, and increasing prices of emissions. The CCS technologies would balance emission reduction but they would reduce energy efficiency improvement and renewable energy utilization. In the energy security aspect, the policy options in this study would improve energy security, energy import dependency, and co-benefits of GHG mitigation in forms of improving local air quality. Results are also helpful to GHG mitigation policy in developing countries. -- Highlights: •A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was used to analyze GHG mitigation policies in Thailand. •The CCS and emission trading will increase GHG mitigation in Thailand. •The 30% GHG mitigation target with 50% emission trading will give the best result in GDP. •The share of biomass resource and energy efficiency will decrease with CCS. •The emission trading will play an important role in decreasing fossil consumption and increasing renewable energy utilization

Efficient and Equitable Design of Wildfire Mitigation Programs

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas P. Holmes; Karen L. Abt; Robert Huggett; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

2007-01-01

Natural resource economists have addresssed the economic effienciency of expenditures on wildfire mitigation for nearly a century (Gope and Gorte 1979). Beginning with the work of Sparhawk (1925), the theory of efficent wildfire mitigation developed alolng conceptual lines drawn form neoclassical economics. The objective of the traditional least-cost-plus-loss model...

Climate change scenarios and key climate indices in the Swiss Alpine region

Science.gov (United States)

Zubler, Elias; Croci-Maspoli, Mischa; Frei, Christoph; Liniger, Mark; Scherrer, Simon; Appenzeller, Christof

2013-04-01

For climate adaption and to support climate mitigation policy it is of outermost importance to demonstrate the consequences of climate change on a local level and in user oriented quantities. Here, a framework is presented to apply the Swiss national climate change scenarios CH2011 to climate indices with direct relevance to applications, such as tourism, transportation, agriculture and health. This framework provides results on a high spatial and temporal resolution and can also be applied in mountainous regions such as the Alps. Results are shown for some key indices, such as the number of summer days and tropical nights, growing season length, number of frost days, heating and cooling degree days, and the number of days with fresh snow. Particular focus is given to changes in the vertical distribution for the future periods 2020-2049, 2045-2074 and 2070-2099 relative to the reference period 1980-2009 for the A1B, A2 and RCP3PD scenario. The number of days with fresh snow is approximated using a combination of temperature and precipitation as proxies. Some findings for the latest scenario period are: (1) a doubling of the number of summer days by the end of the century under the business-as-usual scenario A2, (2) tropical nights appear above 1500 m asl, (3) the number of frost days may be reduced by more than 3 months at altitudes higher than 2500 m, (4) an overall reduction of heating degree days of about 30% by the end of the century, but on the other hand an increase in cooling degree days in warm seasons, and (5) the number of days with fresh snow tends to go towards zero at low altitudes. In winter, there is little change in snowfall above 2000 m asl (roughly -3 days) in all scenarios. The largest impact on snowfall is found along the Northern Alpine flank and the Jura (-10 days or roughly -50% in A1B for the winter season). It is also highlighted that the future projections for all indices strongly depend on the chosen scenario and on model uncertainty

Decadal Recruitment and Mortality of Ponderosa pine Predicted for the 21st Century Under five Downscaled Climate Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Ironside, K. E.; Cole, K. L.; Eischeid, J. K.; Garfin, G. M.; Shaw, J. D.; Cobb, N. S.

2008-12-01

Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa var. scopulorum) is the dominant conifer in higher elevation regions of the southwestern United States. Because this species is so prominent, southwestern montane ecosystems will be significantly altered if this species is strongly affected by future climate changes. These changes could be highly challenging for land management agencies. In order to model the consequences of future climates, 20th Century recruitment events and mortality for ponderosa pine were characterized using measures of seasonal water balance (precipitation - potential evapotranspiration). These relationships, assuming they will remain unchanged, were then used to predict 21st Century changes in ponderosa pine occurrence in the southwest. Twenty-one AR4 IPCC General Circulation Model (GCM) A1B simulation results were ranked on their ability to simulate the later 20th Century (1950-2000 AD) precipitation seasonality, spatial patterns, and quantity in the western United States. Among the top ranked GCMs, five were selected for downscaling to a 4 km grid that represented a range in predictions in terms of changes in water balance. Predicted decadal changes in southwestern ponderosa pine for the 21st Century for these five climate change scenarios were calculated using a multiple quadratic logistic regression model. Similar models of other western tree species (Pinus edulis, Yucca brevifolia) predicted severe contractions, especially in the southern half of their ranges. However, the results for Ponderosa pine suggested future expansions throughout its range to both higher and lower elevations, as well as very significant expansions northward.

China’s Low-Carbon Scenario Analysis of CO2 Mitigation Measures towards 2050 Using a Hybrid AIM/CGE Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Li

2015-04-01

Full Text Available China’s emissions continue to rise rapidly in line with its mounting energy consumption, which puts considerable pressure on China to meet its emission reduction commitments. This paper assesses the impacts of CO2 mitigation measures in China during the period from 2010 to 2050 by using a computable general equilibrium method, called AIM/CGE. Results show that renewable energy makes a critical difference in abating emissions during the period from 2010 to 2020. The scenarios with emission trading would drive more emission reductions, whereby the emission-cutting commitment for 2020 would be achieved and emission reductions in 2050 would be more than 57.90%. Meanwhile, the share of non-fossil energy increases significantly and would be more than doubled in 2050 compared with the BAU scenario. A carbon tax would result in a significant decline in emissions in the short term, but would have an adverse effect on economic growth and energy structure improvements. It is also observed that the integrated measures would not only substantially decrease the total emissions, but also improve the energy structure.

The role of China in mitigating climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paltsev, Sergey; Morris, Jennifer; Cai, Yongxia; Karplus, Valerie; Jacoby, Henry

2012-01-01

We explore short- and long-term implications of several energy scenarios of China's role in efforts to mitigate global climate risk. The focus is on the impacts on China's energy system and GDP growth, and on global climate indicators such as greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, and global temperature change. We employ the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework and its economic component, the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We demonstrate that China's commitments for 2020, made during the UN climate meetings in Copenhagen and Cancun, are reachable at very modest cost. Alternative actions by China in the next 10 years do not yield any substantial changes in GHG concentrations or temperature due to inertia in the climate system. Consideration of the longer-term climate implications of the Copenhagen-type of commitments requires an assumption about policies after 2020, and the effects differ drastically depending on the case. Meeting a 2 °C target is problematic unless radical GHG emission reductions are assumed in the short-term. Participation or non-participation of China in global climate architecture can lead by 2100 to a 200–280 ppm difference in atmospheric GHG concentration, which can result in a 1.1 °C to 1.3 °C change by the end of the century. We conclude that it is essential to engage China in GHG emissions mitigation policies, and alternative actions lead to substantial differences in climate, energy, and economic outcomes. Potential channels for engaging China can be air pollution control and involvement in sectoral trading with established emissions trading systems in developed countries. - Highlights: ► It is essential to engage China in GHG emissions mitigation policies. ► China's mitigation actions proposed for 2015 and 2020 are reachable at modest costs. ► Meeting 2 °C target is problematic without radical GHG emissions reductions.

Modelled impacts of mitigation measures on greenhouse gas emissions from Finnish agriculture up to 2020

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. REGINA

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Emission scenarios based on integrated quantitative modelling are a valuable tool in planning strategies for greenhouse gas mitigation. By estimating the potential of individual mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, resources can be targeted to the most promising policy measures. This paper reports two agricultural emission scenarios for Finland up to year 2020, one baseline scenario (Scenario 1 based on the projected agricultural production levels determined by markets and agricultural policy and one with selected mitigation measures included (Scenario 2. Measures selected for the analysis consisted of 1 keeping agricultural area at the current level, 2 decreasing the proportion of organic soils, 3 increasing the proportion of grass cultivation on organic soils and 4 supporting biogas production on farms. Starting from 2005, the emissions of nitrous oxide and methane from agriculture would decrease 2.3% in Scenario 1 by 2020 whereas the respective decrease would be 11.5% in Scenario 2. According to the results, mitigation measures targeted to cultivation of organic soils have the largest potential to reduce the emissions. Such measures would include reducing the area of cultivated organic soils and increasing the proportion of perennial crops on the remaining area.

Bioenergy as a Mitigation Measure

Science.gov (United States)

Dass, P.; Brovkin, V.; Müller, C.; Cramer, W.

2011-12-01

Numerous studies have shown that bioenergy, being one of the renewable energies with the lowest costs, is expected to play an important role in the near future as climate change mitigation measure. Current practices of converting crop products such as carbohydrates or plant oils to ethanol or biodiesel have limited capabilities to curb emission. Moreover, they compete with food production for the most fertile lands. Thus, second generation bioenergy technologies are being developed to process lignocellulosic plant materials from fast growing tree and grass species. A number of deforestation experiments using Earth System models have shown that in the mid- to high latitudes, deforested surface albedo strongly increases in presence of snow. This biophysical effect causes cooling, which could dominate over the biogeochemical warming effect because of the carbon emissions due to deforestation. In order to find out the global bioenergy potential of extensive plantations in the mid- to high latitudes, and the resultant savings in carbon emissions, we use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL run at a high spatial resolution of 0.5°. It represents both natural and managed ecosystems, including the cultivation of cellulosic energy crops. LPJmL is run with 21st century projections of climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration based on the IPCC-SRES business as usual or A2 scenario. Latitudes above 45° in both hemispheres are deforested and planted with crops having the highest bioenergy return for the respective pixels of the model. The rest of the Earth has natural vegetation. The agricultural management intensity values are used such that it results in the best approximation for 1999 - 2003 national yields of wheat and maize as reported by FAOSTAT 2009. Four different scenarios of land management are used ranging from an idealistic or best case scenario, where all limitations of soil and terrain properties are managed to the worst case scenario where none of these

Applying a systems approach to assess carbon emission reductions from climate change mitigation in Mexico’s forest sector

Science.gov (United States)

Olguin, Marcela; Wayson, Craig; Fellows, Max; Birdsey, Richard; Smyth, Carolyn E.; Magnan, Michael; Dugan, Alexa J.; Mascorro, Vanessa S.; Alanís, Armando; Serrano, Enrique; Kurz, Werner A.

2018-03-01

The Paris Agreement of the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for a balance of anthropogenic greenhouse emissions and removals in the latter part of this century. Mexico indicated in its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution and its Climate Change Mid-Century Strategy that the land sector will contribute to meeting GHG emission reduction goals. Since 2012, the Mexican government through its National Forestry Commission, with international financial and technical support, has been developing carbon dynamics models to explore climate change mitigation options in the forest sector. Following a systems approach, here we assess the biophysical mitigation potential of forest ecosystems, harvested wood products and their substitution benefits (i.e. the change in emissions resulting from substitution of wood for more emissions-intensive products and fossil fuels), for policy alternatives considered by the Mexican government, such as a net zero deforestation rate and sustainable forest management. We used available analytical frameworks (Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector and a harvested wood products model), parameterized with local input data in two contrasting Mexican states. Using information from the National Forest Monitoring System (e.g. forest inventories, remote sensing, disturbance data), we demonstrate that activities aimed at reaching a net-zero deforestation rate can yield significant CO2e mitigation benefits by 2030 and 2050 relative to a baseline scenario (‘business as usual’), but if combined with increasing forest harvest to produce long-lived products and substitute more energy-intensive materials, emissions reductions could also provide other co-benefits (e.g. jobs, illegal logging reduction). We concluded that the relative impact of mitigation activities is locally dependent, suggesting that mitigation strategies should be designed and implemented at sub-national scales. We were also encouraged about the

Synoptic analysis of heat waves in the Barcelona city (Catalonia, Spain) during 21st century

Science.gov (United States)

Amaro, Jéssica; Peña, Juan Carlos; Miró, Josep Ramon; Aran, Montserrat

2017-04-01

The impact of extremely warm episodes on health has been analysed by a large number of studies conducted in different countries and cities, showing that heat waves events (HWE) can cause an abrupt increase in mortality. A HWE was defined as a 7-day sequence following a key-day labelled by the 95th percentile of Barcelona daily mortality (see Peña et al., 2015). The aim of this study is to identify synoptic patterns associated to HWE in Barcelona over the 21st century and evaluate the impact and possible mitigations. To achieve it, a multivariate analysis (MVA) integrating different atmospheric levels (sea level pressure, temperature at 850 hPa and geopotential at 500 hPa) was undertaken. The observed data used for this study was the 20th Century Reanalysis. The Max Planck Institute Earth system model was used to study two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) during the 21st century. The model was calibrated given the variability in the climate scenario, using the Quantile-Quantile mapping transformation (Q-Q). The MVA applied to the observed period (1990-2015) distinguish three main synoptic patterns: two dynamic configurations produced by southern fluxes related to an Atlantic low, associated with HWE recorded in southern Europe, and a third pattern identified by a stagnation situation related to persistent anticyclone periods. These patterns were also detected in the control simulated period (1961-2005) after the Q-Q calibration, preserving, therefore, the climatic variability: the number of HWE during the warm period (1990-2005) is twice more than during the cold period (1976-1989) due to an intensification of the warm masses. In the RCP 4.5 scenario (2006-2100 period) a positive and significant trend is shown in synoptic patterns which provoke HWE in Barcelona, especially during August; in the RCP 8.5 scenario there is no significant trend, but the intensification of the warm masses is higher.

Projections of Climate Change over China for the 21st Century

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

LUO Yong; ZHAO Zongci; XU Ying; GAO Xuejie; DING Yihui

2005-01-01

The projections of climate changes in China for the 21st century by about 40 climate scenarios and multi-model ensembles have been investigated in this research. All the models with the different scenarios project a warming of 1.2℃ to 9.2℃ in China by the end of 21st century. Most of the projections point show the increasing of precipitation in China for the 21st century.

Large increase in dissolved inorganic carbon flux from the Mississippi River to Gulf of Mexico due to climatic and anthropogenic changes over the 21st century.

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Wei; Tian, Hanqin; Tao, Bo; Yang, Jia; Pan, Shufen; Cai, Wei-Jun; Lohrenz, Steven E; He, Ruoying; Hopkinson, Charles S

2015-04-01

It is recognized that anthropogenic factors have had a major impact on carbon fluxes from land to the ocean during the past two centuries. However, little is known about how future changes in climate, atmospheric CO 2 , and land use may affect riverine carbon fluxes over the 21st century. Using a coupled hydrological-biogeochemical model, the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, this study examines potential changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) export from the Mississippi River basin to the Gulf of Mexico during 2010-2099 attributable to climate-related conditions (temperature and precipitation), atmospheric CO 2 , and land use change. Rates of annual DIC export are projected to increase by 65% under the high emission scenario (A2) and 35% under the low emission scenario (B1) between the 2000s and the 2090s. Climate-related changes along with rising atmospheric CO 2 together would account for over 90% of the total increase in DIC export throughout the 21st century. The predicted increase in DIC export from the Mississippi River basin would alter chemistry of the coastal ocean unless appropriate climate mitigation actions are taken in the near future.

Low carbon society scenario analysis of transport sector of an emerging economy—The AIM/Enduse modelling approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha; Limmeechokchai, Bundit

2015-01-01

The transport sector of a country is the backbone driving the economy forward. Thailand’s land transport sector is modelled using the AIM/Enduse, which is a recursive dynamic optimization model, based on bottom-up modelling principle. The travel demand is divided into two major categories which are passenger travel and freight travel. The objective of this paper is to analyse the mitigation possible through low carbon society (LCS) measures and emission tax (ET). Two scenario clusters are devised along with the BAU case. The LCS scenario cluster has three designed scenarios which are LCS-L, LCS-M and LCS-H. The emission tax (ET) cluster has four scenarios, where the taxes of 50, 100, 200 and 500 USD/t-CO 2 are implemented. Along with this the marginal abatement costs (MAC) of the counter-measures (CMs) and the co-benefits in terms of energy security, productivity and air pollutant mitigation are also assessed. Results show that LCS scenarios are possible of mitigating up to 1230 Mt-CO 2 cumulatively, from 2010 to 2050. In terms of MACs, new vehicles play a pivotal role, along with hybrid vehicles. The Average Abatement Cost (AAC) assessment shows that the AAC of LCS-H scenario is in the order of 100 USD/t-CO 2 . All the LCS and ET scenarios show an enhancement in energy security and also a threefold increase in productivity. There is distinct mitigation in terms of air pollutants from the transport sector as well. -- Highlights: •Thailand transport sector has been modelled using AIM/Enduse model. •Potential cumulative mitigation of CO 2 during 2010–2050 is approximately 30% when compared the BAU scenario. •Abatement cost curves show that various counter measures are practical in the transport sector. •Energy security is enhanced due to CO 2 mitigation in the LCS scenario

Asia's role in mitigating climate change: A technology and sector specific analysis with ReMIND-R

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luderer, Gunnar; Pietzcker, Robert C.; Kriegler, Elmar; Haller, Markus; Bauer, Nico

2012-01-01

We use the ReMIND-R model to analyze the role of Asia in the context of a global effort to mitigate climate change. We introduce a novel method of secondary energy based mitigation shares, which allows us to quantify the economic mitigation potential of technologies in different regions and final energy carriers. The 2005 share of Asia in global CO 2 emissions amounts to 38%, and is projected to grow to 53% under business-as-usual until the end of the century. Asia also holds a large fraction of the global mitigation potential. A broad portfolio of technologies is deployed in the climate policy scenarios. We find that biomass in combination with CCS, other renewables, and end-use efficiency each make up a large fraction of the global mitigation potential, followed by nuclear and fossil CCS. We find considerable differences in decarbonization patterns across the final energy types electricity, heat and transport fuels. Regional differences in technology use are a function of differences in resource endowments, and structural differences in energy end use. Under climate policy, a substantial mitigation potential of non-biomass renewables emerges for China and other developing countries of Asia (OAS). Asia also accounts for the dominant share of the global mitigation potential of nuclear energy. In view of the substantial near term investments into new energy infrastructure in China and India, early adoption of climate policy prevents lock-in into carbon intensive infrastructure and thus leads to a much higher long-term mitigation potential. - Highlights: ► We develop a novel methodology for the attribution of emission reductions to technologies. ► Asia accounts for a substantial and increasing share of global CO 2 emissions. ► A broad portfolio of technologies contributes to emission reductions. ► Early action increases the long term mitigation potential of China and India.

Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

Science.gov (United States)

Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

2014-05-01

Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pitcher, Hugh M

2009-01-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Pitcher, Hugh M.

2009-04-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

Scenario analysis of fertilizer management practices for N2O mitigation from corn systems in Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Abalos, Diego; Smith, Ward N; Grant, Brian B; Drury, Craig F; MacKell, Sarah; Wagner-Riddle, Claudia

2016-12-15

Effective management of nitrogen (N) fertilizer application by farmers provides great potential for reducing emissions of the potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N 2 O). However, such potential is rarely achieved because our understanding of what practices (or combination of practices) lead to N 2 O reductions without compromising crop yields remains far from complete. Using scenario analysis with the process-based model DNDC, this study explored the effects of nine fertilizer practices on N 2 O emissions and crop yields from two corn production systems in Canada. The scenarios differed in: timing of fertilizer application, fertilizer rate, number of applications, fertilizer type, method of application and use of nitrification/urease inhibitors. Statistical analysis showed that during the initial calibration and validation stages the simulated results had no significant total error or bias compared to measured values, yet grain yield estimations warrant further model improvement. Sidedress fertilizer applications reduced yield-scaled N 2 O emissions by c. 60% compared to fall fertilization. Nitrification inhibitors further reduced yield-scaled N 2 O emissions by c. 10%; urease inhibitors had no effect on either N 2 O emissions or crop productivity. The combined adoption of split fertilizer application with inhibitors at a rate 10% lower than the conventional application rate (i.e. 150kgNha -1 ) was successful, but the benefits were lower than those achieved with single fertilization at sidedress. Our study provides a comprehensive assessment of fertilizer management practices that enables policy development regarding N 2 O mitigation from agricultural soils in Canada. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global Energy-Economy-Environment (E3) Scenarios to 2050 and Beyond

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schrattenholzer, L.

2005-01-01

-climate policy scenarios; Emissions mitigation scenarios; and Sustainable-development scenarios. It seems useful to be explicit about the definition of s ustainable development . At IIASA-ECS we use the non-quantitative definition coined originally by the Brundtland Commission: 'development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs' (WCED, 1987) as a point of departure. We then refer to sustainable-development scenarios (1) if economic growth (GDP/capita) is sustained throughout the whole time horizon, (2) if socio-economic equity (GDP/capita) among regions is enhanced significantly over the next century, (3) if reserves(resources)-to-production ratios do not decline over the scenario's time horizon, and if (4) carbon emissions at the end of the century are roughly at or below today's emissions level. This review includes all scenarios that IIASA-ECS contributed to the database of greenhouse gas emission scenarios, which was developed as part of the process of compiling the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, 2000; Morita and Lee, 1998; www-cger.nies.go.jp/cger-e/db/ipcc.html) and classifies them into these three groups.(author)

Mitigation options : flare and vent mitigation undercuts CCS in trimming CO{sub 2} emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, M.

2010-11-15

This article reported on a study aimed at reducing flaring and venting associated with conventional heavy oil production. In particular, the study analyzed parameters such as the variability in flare volumes, flare gas composition and statistical distribution of volumes flared. The objective was to determine the most viable economic solution to reducing flare and vent volumes. In particular, the study focused on various scenarios to tie-in currently flared and vented solution gas. Solution gas volume variability was found to be wide ranging, with 90 percent of sites handling less than 32 percent of the volume and 10 percent of the sites handling more than two-thirds of the volume. Composition also varied, and was difficult to measure. One scenario assumed that wells were unconnected and had to be tied in with their own compressors and pipe, while another scenario considered the wells to be individual wells. A first comprehensive analysis of flare and vent mitigation opportunities in Alberta revealed that tying in solution gas at battery sites could create emissions reductions at much lower cost than the province's carbon capture and storage (CCS) plan. The study of mitigation options primarily targeted the conventional heavy oil belt of eastern Alberta near Lloydminster. The most optimistic scenario included a $15 per tonne carbon credit, that up to 55 megatonnes could be trimmed over 10 years at no cost to the industry.1 fig.

Unprecedented rates of land-use transformation in modeled climate change mitigation pathways

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, P. A.; Field, C. B.; Lobell, D. B.; Sanchez, D.; Mach, K. J.

2017-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) generate climate change mitigation scenarios consistent with global temperature targets. To limit warming to 2°, stylized cost-effective mitigation pathways rely on extensive deployments of carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR) technologies, including multi-gigatonne yearly carbon removal from the atmosphere through bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and afforestation/reforestation. These assumed CDR deployments keep ambitious temperature limits in reach, but associated rates of land-use transformation have not been evaluated. For IAM scenarios from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, we compare rates of modeled land-use conversion to recent observed commodity crop expansions. In scenarios with a likely chance of limiting warming to 2° in 2100, the rate of energy cropland expansion supporting BECCS exceeds past commodity crop rates by several fold. In some cases, mitigation scenarios include abrupt reversal of deforestation, paired with massive afforestation/reforestation. Specifically, energy cropland in crop. If energy cropland instead increases at rates equal to recent soybean and oil palm expansions, the scale of CO2 removal possible with BECCS is 2.6 to 10-times lower, respectively, than the deployments <2° IAM scenarios rely upon in 2100. IAM mitigation pathways may favor multi-gigatonne biomass-based CDR given undervalued sociopolitical and techno-economic deployment barriers. Heroic modeled rates for land-use transformation imply that large-scale biomass-based CDR is not an easy solution to the climate challenge.

GHG emissions and mitigation potential in Indian agriculture

Science.gov (United States)

Vetter, Sylvia; Feliciano, Diana; Sapkota, Tek; Hillier, Jon; Smith, Pete; Stirling, Clare

2016-04-01

India is one of the world's largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter, accounting for about 5% of global emissions with further increases expected in the future. The Government of India aims to reduce emission intensities by 20-25% by 2020 compared with the 2005 level. In a recent departure from past practice the reconvened Council on Climate Change stated that climate change in agriculture would include a component that would focus on reducing emissions in agriculture, particularly methane and nitrous oxide emissions. To develop recommendations for mitigation in agriculture in India, a baseline study is presented to analyse the GHG emissions from agriculture for current management (Directorate of Economics and Statistics of the government of India). This analysis is done for the two states Bihar and Haryana, which differ in their management and practises based on different climate and policies. This first analysis shows were the highest GHG emissions in agriculture is produced and were the highest mitigation potential might be. The GHG emissions and mitigation potential are calculated using the CCAFS Mitigation Option Tool (CCAFS-MOT) (https://ccafs.cgiar.org/mitigation-option-tool-agriculture#.VpTnWL826d4) with modifications for the special modelling. In a second step, stakeholder meetings provided a wide range of possible and definite scenarios (management, policy, technology, costs, etc.) for the future to mitigate emissions in agriculture as well as how to increase productivity. These information were used to create scenarios to give estimates for the mitigation potential in agriculture for India in 2020.

Adaptive Detection and ISI Mitigation for Mobile Molecular Communication.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Ge; Lin, Lin; Yan, Hao

2018-03-01

Current studies on modulation and detection schemes in molecular communication mainly focus on the scenarios with static transmitters and receivers. However, mobile molecular communication is needed in many envisioned applications, such as target tracking and drug delivery. Until now, investigations about mobile molecular communication have been limited. In this paper, a static transmitter and a mobile bacterium-based receiver performing random walk are considered. In this mobile scenario, the channel impulse response changes due to the dynamic change of the distance between the transmitter and the receiver. Detection schemes based on fixed distance fail in signal detection in such a scenario. Furthermore, the intersymbol interference (ISI) effect becomes more complex due to the dynamic character of the signal which makes the estimation and mitigation of the ISI even more difficult. In this paper, an adaptive ISI mitigation method and two adaptive detection schemes are proposed for this mobile scenario. In the proposed scheme, adaptive ISI mitigation, estimation of dynamic distance, and the corresponding impulse response reconstruction are performed in each symbol interval. Based on the dynamic channel impulse response in each interval, two adaptive detection schemes, concentration-based adaptive threshold detection and peak-time-based adaptive detection, are proposed for signal detection. Simulations demonstrate that the ISI effect is significantly reduced and the adaptive detection schemes are reliable and robust for mobile molecular communication.

ADAM adaptation and mitigation strategies: supporting European climate policy. Deliverable D3 of work package M1 (code D-M1.3). ADAM 2-degree scenario for Europe - policies and impacts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schade, Wolfgang; Jochem, Eberhard; Barker, Terry [and others

2009-07-31

ADAM research identifies and appraises existing and new policy options that can contribute to different combinations of adaptation and mitigation strategies. These options address the demands a changing climate will place on protecting citizens and valuable ecosystems - i.e., adaptation - as well as addressing the necessity to restrain/control humankind's perturbation to global climate to a desirable level - i.e., mitigation. The work package Mitigation 1 (Ml) has the core objective to simulate mitigation options and their related costs for Europe until 2050 and 2100 respectively. The focus of this deliverable is on the period 2005 to 2050. The long-term period until 2100 is covered in the previous deliverable D2, applying the POLES model for this time horizon. The analysis constitutes basically a techno-economic analysis. Depending on the sector analyzed it is either directly combined with a policy analysis (e.g. in the transport sector, renewables sector) or the policy analysis is performed qualitatively as a subsequent and independent step after the techno-economic analysis is completed (e.g. in the residential and service sectors). The book includes the following chapters: scenarios and macroeconomic assumptions; methodological issues analyzing mitigation options; the integrated global energy model POLES and its projections for the reference and 2 deg C scenarios; forest and basic materials sector; residential sector in Europe; the service (tertiary) and the primary sectors in Europe; basic products and other manufacturing industry sectors; transport sectors in Europe; renewable sector in Europe; conversion sector in Europe; syntheses and sectoral analysis in Europe; macroeconomic impacts of climate policy in the EU; the effects of the financial crisis on baseline simulations with implications for climate policy modeling: an analysis using the global model E3MG 2008-2012; conclusions and policy recommendations.

ADAM adaptation and mitigation strategies: supporting European climate policy. Deliverable D3 of work package M1 (code D-M1.3). ADAM 2-degree scenario for Europe - policies and impacts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schade, Wolfgang; Jochem, Eberhard; Barker, Terry (and others)

2009-07-31

ADAM research identifies and appraises existing and new policy options that can contribute to different combinations of adaptation and mitigation strategies. These options address the demands a changing climate will place on protecting citizens and valuable ecosystems - i.e., adaptation - as well as addressing the necessity to restrain/control humankind's perturbation to global climate to a desirable level - i.e., mitigation. The work package Mitigation 1 (Ml) has the core objective to simulate mitigation options and their related costs for Europe until 2050 and 2100 respectively. The focus of this deliverable is on the period 2005 to 2050. The long-term period until 2100 is covered in the previous deliverable D2, applying the POLES model for this time horizon. The analysis constitutes basically a techno-economic analysis. Depending on the sector analyzed it is either directly combined with a policy analysis (e.g. in the transport sector, renewables sector) or the policy analysis is performed qualitatively as a subsequent and independent step after the techno-economic analysis is completed (e.g. in the residential and service sectors). The book includes the following chapters: scenarios and macroeconomic assumptions; methodological issues analyzing mitigation options; the integrated global energy model POLES and its projections for the reference and 2 deg C scenarios; forest and basic materials sector; residential sector in Europe; the service (tertiary) and the primary sectors in Europe; basic products and other manufacturing industry sectors; transport sectors in Europe; renewable sector in Europe; conversion sector in Europe; syntheses and sectoral analysis in Europe; macroeconomic impacts of climate policy in the EU; the effects of the financial crisis on baseline simulations with implications for climate policy modeling: an analysis using the global model E3MG 2008-2012; conclusions and policy recommendations.

Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harvey, L.D.D.

2013-01-01

This paper develops scenarios whereby CO 2 emissions from the transportation sector are eliminated worldwide by the end of this century. Data concerning the energy intensity and utilization of different passenger and freight transportation modes in 2005, and per capita income, in 10 different socio-economic regions of the world are combined with scenarios of population and per capita GDP to generate scenarios of future transportation energy demand. The impact of various technical options (improvements in the energy intensity of all transportation modes, changes in the proportions of vehicles with different drive trains, and a shift to biomass or hydrogen for the non-electricity energy requirements) and behavioural options (a shift to less energy-intensive LDV market segments, a reduction in total passenger-km of travel per capita, and an increase in the share of less energy-intensive passenger and freight modes of transport) is assessed. To eliminate transportation fossil fuel emissions within this century while limiting the demand for electricity, biofuels or hydrogen to manageable levels requires the simultaneous application of all the technical and behavioural measures considered here, with improvements in vehicle efficiencies and a shift to plug-in hybrid and battery-electric drive trains for light duty vehicles being the most important measures. - Highlights: ► Scenarios are developed whereby transportation CO 2 emissions reach zero by 2100. ► These scenarios address concerns about peak oil and global warming. ► A comprehensive mix of technical and behavioural changes is considered in 10 world regions. ► Efficiency improvements and a shift to plug-in hybrid vehicles are the most important measures

Transient scenarios for robust climate change adaptation illustrated for water manegement in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Schellekens, J.; Beersma, J.; Middelkoop, H.; Kwadijk, Jacob Cornelis Jan

2015-01-01

Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions across a range of futures. Time-dependent climate scenarios are commonly used in mitigation studies. However, despite the dynamic nature of adaptation, most scenarios for

Low carbon society scenario 2050 in Thai industrial sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha; Limmeechokchai, Bundit; Masui, Toshihiko; Hanaoka, Tatsuya; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Thai industrial sector has been modelled using AIM/Enduse model. • Potential mitigation of CO 2 for 2050 is approximately 20% from Baseline scenario. • Abatement cost curves show that varied counter measures are practical in the industrial sector. • Energy security is enhanced due to CO 2 mitigation in the LCS scenario. - Abstract: Energy plays a dominant role in determining the individual competitiveness of a country and this is more relevant to emerging economies. That being said, energy also plays an important and ever expanding role in carbon emissions and sustainability of the country. As a developing country Thailand’s industrial sector is vibrant and robust and consumes majority of the energy. In addition, it also has the highest CO 2 emissions, provided the emissions of power generation are taken into account. Industry also accounts for the highest consumption of electricity in Thailand. The objective of this study is to model the Thai industrial energy sector and estimate the mitigation potential for the timeframe of 2010–2050 using the principles of Low Carbon Society (LCS). In addition, the paper would also evaluate emission tax as a key driver of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) mitigation along with Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) analysis. Another secondary objective is to analyse the impact of mitigation on energy security of the industrial sector. The Thai industrial sector was modelled using AIM/Enduse model, which is a recursive dynamic optimisation model belonging to the Asia–Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) family. Thai industrial sector was divided into nine sub-sectors based on national economic reporting procedures. Results suggest that the mitigation potential in 2050, compared to the Baseline scenario, is around 20% with positive impacts on energy security. The Baseline emission will approximately be 377 Mt-CO 2 in the industrial sector. All four indicators of energy security, Primary Energy Intensity, Carbon Intensity, Oil

The potential for greenhouse gases mitigation in household sector of Iran: cases of price reform/efficiency improvement and scenario for 2000-2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davoudpour, Hamid; Ahadi, Mohammad Sadegh

2006-01-01

Iran's demographic profile is sharply youth oriented and this upcoming generation's needs for employment and housing, coupled with low-energy efficiency vectors and consumption patterns, has created a constant rise in energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions in the residential sector. Improved energy efficiency as a national policy lynchpin for demand reduction and GHGs mitigation, has become commonplace. OPEC countries however, Iran included, suffer an obvious lack of consumer incentive because of low fuel prices. This study evaluates the twin impacts of price reform and efficiency programs on energy carriers' consumption and GHGs mitigation in the Iranian housing sector. For this purpose, the demand functions for energy carriers, has been developed by econometrics process models. The results reveal that price elasticity for electricity demand in the Constant Elasticity Model for the short-run while the long-run is -0.142 and -0.901, respectively. In the Variable Elasticity Model the 250% increase in electricity rates in the short-run resulted in a price elasticity change from -0.02 to -0.475, hence the 250% increase in electricity pricing for the long-run resulted in the price elasticity change from -0.15 to -2.0. Finally, aided by a Scenario-Based Approach the impact of fuel pricing and efficiency improvement in trends of energy demand and GHGs emission were assessed in a Scenarios Base, developed on two different cases of Business-as-Usual (BAU) and Management. The results indicate that in the BAU case between 2000 and 2011, the energy demand and CO 2 emission increases with an annual growth rate of 7.5% and 6.8%, respectively. Comparatively, if the energy carriers' price is increased to border price and energy efficiency programs are implemented, they will stimulate carriers' demand and CO 2 emissions growth rate decreases to 4.94% and 3.1%, respectively

Modeling the greenhouse gas budget of straw returning in China: feasibility of mitigation and countermeasures.

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Fei; Wang, Xiao-Ke; Han, Bing; Ouyang, Zhi-Yun; Zheng, Hua

2010-05-01

Straw returning is considered to be one of the most promising carbon sequestration measures in China's cropland. A compound model, namely "Straw Returning and Burning Model-Expansion" (SRBME), was built to estimate the net mitigation potential, economic benefits, and air pollutant reduction of straw returning. Three scenarios, that is, baseline, "full popularization of straw returning (FP)," and "full popularization of straw returning and precision fertilization (FP + P)," were set to reflect popularization of straw returning. The results of the SRBME indicated that (1) compared with the soil carbon sequestration of 13.37 Tg/yr, the net mitigation potentials, which were 6.328 Tg/yr for the FP scenario and 9.179 Tg/yr for the FP + P scenario, had different trends when the full budget of the greenhouse gases was considered; (2) when the feasibility in connection with greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, economic benefits, and environmental benefits was taken into consideration, straw returning was feasible in 15 provinces in the FP scenario, with a total net mitigation potential of 7.192 TgCe/yr and the total benefits of CNY 1.473 billion (USD 216.6 million); (3) in the FP + P scenario, with the implementation of precision fertilization, straw returning was feasible in 26 provinces with a total net mitigation potential of 10.39 TgCe/yr and the total benefits of CNY 5.466 billion (USD 803.8 million); (4) any extent of change in the treatment of straw from being burnt to being returned would contribute to air pollution reduction; (5) some countermeasures, such as CH(4) reduction in rice paddies, precision fertilization, financial support, education and propaganda, would promote the feasibility of straw returning as a mitigation measure.

Effects of climate change adaptation scenarios on perceived spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events

Science.gov (United States)

Vidal, J.-P.; Martin, E.; Kitova, N.; Najac, J.; Soubeyroux, J.-M.

2012-04-01

Drought events develop in both space and time and they are therefore best described through summary joint spatio-temporal characteristics, like mean duration, mean affected area and total magnitude. This study addresses the issue of future projections of such characteristics of drought events over France through three main research questions: (1) Are downscaled climate projections able to reproduce spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural droughts in France over a present-day period? (2) How such characteristics will evolve over the 21st century under different emissions scenarios? (3) How would perceived drought characteristics evolve under theoretical adaptation scenarios? These questions are addressed using the Isba land surface model, downscaled climate projections from the ARPEGE General Circulation Model under three emissions scenarios, as well as results from a previously performed 50-year multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France (Vidal et al., 2010). Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural drought events are computed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Soil Wetness Index (SSWI), respectively, and for time scales of 3 and 12 months. Results first show that the distributions of joint spatio-temporal characteristics of observed events are well reproduced by the downscaled hydroclimate projections over a present-day period. All spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events are then found to dramatically increase over the 21st century under all considered emissions scenarios, with stronger changes for agricultural droughts. Two theoretical adaptation scenarios are eventually built based on hypotheses of adaptation to evolving climate and hydrological normals. The two scenarios differ by the way the transient adaptation is performed for a given date in the future, with reference to the normals over either the previous 30-year window ("retrospective

Identifying and Mitigating Potential Nutrient and Sediment Hot Spots under a Future Scenario in the Missouri River Basin

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wu, May [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Zhang, Zhonglong [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

2015-09-01

Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for large-scale watershed modeling could be useful for evaluating the quality of the water in regions that are dominated by nonpoint sources in order to identify potential “hot spots” for which mitigating strategies could be further developed. An analysis of water quality under future scenarios in which changes in land use would be made to accommodate increased biofuel production was developed for the Missouri River Basin (MoRB) based on a SWAT model application. The analysis covered major agricultural crops and biofuel feedstock in the MoRB, including pasture land, hay, corn, soybeans, wheat, and switchgrass. The analysis examined, at multiple temporal and spatial scales, how nitrate, organic nitrogen, and total nitrogen; phosphorus, organic phosphorus, inorganic phosphorus, and total phosphorus; suspended sediments; and water flow (water yield) would respond to the shifts in land use that would occur under proposed future scenarios. The analysis was conducted at three geospatial scales: (1) large tributary basin scale (two: Upper MoRB and Lower MoRB); (2) regional watershed scale (seven: Upper Missouri River, Middle Missouri River, Middle Lower Missouri River, Lower Missouri River, Yellowstone River, Platte River, and Kansas River); and (3) eight-digit hydrologic unit (HUC-8) subbasin scale (307 subbasins). Results showed that subbasin-level variations were substantial. Nitrogen loadings decreased across the entire Upper MoRB, and they increased in several subbasins in the Lower MoRB. Most nitrate reductions occurred in lateral flow. Also at the subbasin level, phosphorus in organic, sediment, and soluble forms was reduced by 35%, 45%, and 65%, respectively. Suspended sediments increased in 68% of the subbasins. The water yield decreased in 62% of the subbasins. In the Kansas River watershed, the water quality improved significantly with regard to every nitrogen and phosphorus compound. The improvement was

The potential role of nuclear energy in mitigating CO2 emissions in the United Arab Emirates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

AlFarra, Hasan Jamil; Abu-Hijleh, Bassam

2012-01-01

The annual CO 2 emissions have more than doubled in the UAE since 1990. Electricity generated by fossil fuels is responsible for almost half of the country's emissions. Keeping with the Kyoto Protocol, the UAE decided to integrate nuclear energy into the electricity scheme to mitigate CO 2 emissions as declared by the government. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of the UAE's proposed nuclear energy strategy in mitigating CO 2 emissions from the built environment up to year 2050. The IAEA's simulation model “MESSAGE” is used to estimate the energy demand and CO 2 emissions in the UAE up to year 2050. Several energy supply/fuels scenarios are modeled and simulated including the following: Business as Usual (BaU), the UAE proposed nuclear strategy (APR1400) as well as 12 more aggressive Clean Energy Era (CEE) proposed scenarios. Nuclear energy, especially in its extreme CEE scenario (8NPPs), was found to be more practical option in mitigating CO 2 than renewable energy and carbon capture and sequestration among the simulated scenarios. Nuclear energy also demonstrated an economic viability. The cost of electricity produced from nuclear energy was calculated to be 3.2 cents/kWh, significantly less than the current cost of 8.15 cents/kWh for electricity generation from fossil fuels in the UAE. - Highlights: ► Effectiveness of the UAE's proposed nuclear energy strategy in mitigating CO 2 emissions. ► Simulation is used to estimate the energy demand and CO 2 emissions in the UAE. ► Tested several energy supply/fuels scenarios on mitigating CO 2 .

New power generation technology options under the greenhouse gases mitigation scenario in China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Qiang [Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Science, 19A Yu Quan Road, Beijing 100049 (China); Energy Research Institute, Guohong Mansion, Xicheng District, Beijing 100038 (China); Shi, Minjun [Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Science, 19A Yu Quan Road, Beijing 100049 (China); Jiang, Kejun [Energy Research Institute, Guohong Mansion, Xicheng District, Beijing 100038 (China)

2009-06-15

Climate change has become a global issue. Almost all countries, including China, are now considering adopting policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The power generation sector, as a key source of GHG emissions, will also have significant potential for GHG mitigation. One of the key options is to use new energy technologies with higher energy efficiencies and lower carbon emissions. In this article, we use an energy technology model, MESSAGE-China, to analyze the trend of key new power generation technologies and their contributions to GHG mitigation in China. We expect that the traditional renewable technologies, high-efficiency coal power generation and nuclear power will contribute substantially to GHG mitigation in the short term, and that solar power, biomass energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS) will become more important in the middle and long term. In the meantime, in order to fully bring the role of technology progress into play, China needs to enhance the transfer and absorption of international advanced technologies and independently strengthen her ability in research, demonstration and application of new power generation technologies. (author)

New power generation technology options under the greenhouse gases mitigation scenario in China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Qiang, Liu [Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Science, 19A Yu Quan Road, Beijing 100049 (China); Energy Research Institute, Guohong Mansion, Xicheng District, Beijing 100038 (China)], E-mail: liuqiang@eri.org.cn; Minjun, Shi [Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Science, 19A Yu Quan Road, Beijing 100049 (China); Kejun, Jiang [Energy Research Institute, Guohong Mansion, Xicheng District, Beijing 100038 (China)

2009-06-15

Climate change has become a global issue. Almost all countries, including China, are now considering adopting policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The power generation sector, as a key source of GHG emissions, will also have significant potential for GHG mitigation. One of the key options is to use new energy technologies with higher energy efficiencies and lower carbon emissions. In this article, we use an energy technology model, MESSAGE-China, to analyze the trend of key new power generation technologies and their contributions to GHG mitigation in China. We expect that the traditional renewable technologies, high-efficiency coal power generation and nuclear power will contribute substantially to GHG mitigation in the short term, and that solar power, biomass energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS) will become more important in the middle and long term. In the meantime, in order to fully bring the role of technology progress into play, China needs to enhance the transfer and absorption of international advanced technologies and independently strengthen her ability in research, demonstration and application of new power generation technologies.

Quantifying Land and People Exposed to Sea-Level Rise with No Mitigation and 1.5°C and 2.0°C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, S.; Nicholls, R. J.; Goodwin, P.; Haigh, I. D.; Lincke, D.; Vafeidis, A. T.; Hinkel, J.

2018-03-01

We use multiple synthetic mitigation sea-level scenarios, together with a non-mitigation sea-level scenario from the Warming Acidification and Sea-level Projector model. We find sea-level rise (SLR) continues to accelerate post-2100 for all but the most aggressive mitigation scenarios indicative of 1.5°C and 2.0°C. Using the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment modeling framework, we project land and population exposed in the 1 in 100 year coastal flood plain under SLR and population change. In 2000, the flood plain is estimated at 540 × 103 km2. By 2100, under the mitigation scenarios, it ranges between 610 × 103 and 640 × 103 km2 (580 × 103 and 700 × 103 km2 for the 5th and 95th percentiles). Thus differences between the mitigation scenarios are small in 2100. However, in 2300, flood plains are projected to increase to between 700 × 103 and 960 × 103 km2 in 2300 (610 × 103 and 1290 × 103 km2) for the mitigation scenarios, but 1630 × 103 km2 (1190 × 103 and 2220 × 103 km2) for the non-mitigation scenario. The proportion of global population exposed to SLR in 2300 is projected to be between 1.5% and 5.4% (1.2%-7.6%) (assuming no population growth after 2100) for the aggressive mitigation and the non-mitigation scenario, respectively. Hence over centennial timescales there are significant benefits to climate change mitigation and temperature stabilization. However, sea-levels will continue to rise albeit at lower rates. Thus potential impacts will keep increasing necessitating adaptation to existing coastal infrastructure and the careful planning of new coastal developments.

Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Energy scenarios for PAREST. Sub-report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joerss, Wolfram; Degel, Melanie

2013-01-01

In the research project PAREST emission scenarios to 2020 for particulate matter (PM 10 und PM 2,5 ), and aerosol precursors SO 2 , NO x , NH 3 and NMVOC were prepared for Germany and Europe, mitigation measures evaluated and the results used to model the PM pollution load for Germany. In this part of the report to PAREST energy scenarios used for PAREST are presented. [de

The new socio-economic scenarios for climate change research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guivarch, C.; Rozenberg, J.

2013-01-01

The scientific community is developing a new generation of scenarios to inform the choices we have to make when it comes to responding to climate change. This new generation of scenarios integrates more fully the mechanisms that regulate climate and provides insights to spatial and temporal resolutions unexplored in previous exercises. In addition, it gives a framework for integrating explicit climate policies for mitigation and adaptation, which allows assessing the benefits and costs of climate policies in different socio-economic scenarios. Finally, it introduces a new way of working that strengthens the collaboration between different research communities on climate change. (authors)

Greenhouse gas emissions for the EU in four future scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lesschen, J.P.; Rienks, W.; Staritsky, I. [Alterra, Wageningen-UR, Wageningen (Netherlands); Eickhout, B.; Prins, A.G. [Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

2009-12-15

The European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will be revised in the near future. A proposed agricultural policy reform will affect many dimensions of the sustainable development of agriculture. One of these dimensions are greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of four scenarios of the future, from the Eururalis study, and the effects of CAP options on GHG emissions from agriculture. The results provide an indication of the range of GHG emissions between the four diverging base scenarios and the differences with current emission levels in Member States and on EU level. Analysis of the possible impact of the measures on GHG emissions showed that this would be much larger from mitigation measures than from CAP options. Full implementation of the mitigation measures could lead to a reduction in GHG emissions from agriculture of 127 Mt CO2 equivalents. This is about a quarter of current GHG emissions from agriculture. Promoting mitigation measures, therefore, is more effective for reducing GHG emissions from agriculture, than influencing income and price subsidies within the CAP. On the global scale, CAP options hardly play a role in total GHG emissions from land use. Much more important are developments in global population, economic growth, policies and technological developments, as depicted in the various scenarios.

Nutrient pollution mitigation measures across Europe are resilient under future climate

Science.gov (United States)

Wade, Andrew; Skeffington, Richard; Couture, Raoul; Erlandsson, Martin; Groot, Simon; Halliday, Sarah; Harezlak, Valesca; Hejzlar, Joseph; Jackson-Blake, Leah; Lepistö, Ahti; Papastergiadou, Eva; Psaltopoulos, Demetrios; Riera, Joan; Rankinen, Katri; Skuras, Dimitris; Trolle, Dennis; Whitehead, Paul; Dunn, Sarah; Bucak, Tuba

2016-04-01

The key results from the application of catchment-scale biophysical models to assess the likely effectiveness of nutrient pollution mitigation measures set in the context of projected land management and climate change are presented. The assessment is based on the synthesis of modelled outputs of daily river flow, river and lake nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, and lake chlorophyll-a, for baseline (1981-2010) and scenario (2031-2060) periods for nine study sites across Europe. Together the nine sites represent a sample of key climate and land management types. The robustness and uncertainty in the daily, seasonal and long-term modelled outputs was assessed prior to the scenario runs. Credible scenarios of land-management changes were provided by social scientists and economists familiar with each study site, whilst likely mitigation measures were derived from local stakeholder consultations and cost-effectiveness assessments. Modelled mitigation options were able to reduce nutrient concentrations, and there was no evidence here that they were less effective under future climate. With less certainty, mitigation options could affect the ecological status of waters at these sites in a positive manner, leading to improvement in Water Framework Directive status at some sites. However, modelled outcomes for sites in southern Europe highlighted that increased evaporation and decreased precipitation will cause much lower flows leading to adverse impacts of river and lake ecology. Uncertainties in the climate models, as represented by three GCM-RCM combinations, did not affect this overall picture much.

Discovering the new RCP and SSP scenarios used by the IPCC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

This report presents the scenarios defined by a group of experts within the perspective of the 5. IPCC report. This four reference scenarios named RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) have been designed to foresee the evolution of concentrations of greenhouse gases, of ozone, and of aerosol precursors for the 21. century and beyond. The report also evokes the evolution of simulations used by climatologists, and the introduction of a representation of social and economic evolutions (definition of five families of scenario-types: sustainability, middle of the road, fragmentation, inequality, and conventional development). The consistency of these RCP scenarios and social-economical scenarios is outlined

Planning for Crew Exercise for Deep Space Mission Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, E. Cherice; Ryder, Jeff

2015-01-01

Exercise which is necessary for maintaining crew health on-orbit and preparing the crew for return to 1G can be challenging to incorporate into spaceflight vehicles. Deep space missions will require further understanding of the physiological response to microgravity, understanding appropriate mitigations, and designing the exercise systems to effectively provide mitigations, and integrating effectively into vehicle design with a focus to support planned mission scenarios. Recognizing and addressing the constraints and challenges can facilitate improved vehicle design and exercise system incorporation.

IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon

2001-01-01

This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

Implications of various land use change scenarios on global water scarcity over the 21st century

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Y.; Hejazi, M. I.; Vernon, C. R.; Li, X.; Le Page, Y.; Calvin, K. V.

2017-12-01

While the effects of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on hydrological processes (e.g., runoff, peak flow and discharge) and water availability have been extensively researched, the impacts of LULCC on water scarcity has been rarely investigated. Water scarcity, usually defined as the ratio of water demand to available renewable water supply. The involved water demand is an important human-dimension factor, which is affected by both socio-economic conditions (e.g., population, income) as well as LULCC (e.g., the amount of land we dedicate for food, feed, and fuel crops). Recent studies have assessed the combined effects of climate change and human interventions (e.g., dams, water withdrawals and LULCC) on water scarcity, but none to date has focused on the implications of different pathways of LULCC alone on water scarcity. We establish a set of LULCC scenarios under changing climate and socioeconomic pathways using an integrated assessment model - Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), which integrates natural systems (e.g., water supply, ecosystems, climate) and human systems (e.g., water demand, land use, economy, food, energy, population). The LULCC scenarios encompass varying degrees of protected areas, different magnitudes of crop/bioenergy production and subsidies, and whether to penalize potential land use emissions from bioenergy production (e.g., loss of wood carbon stock from land conversion). Then we investigate how water scarcity responds to LULCC and how the distribution of global population under severe water stress varies in the 21st century. Preliminary results indicate that the LULCC-induced changes in water scarcity are overall small at the global scale (water stress and population being affected. Findings from this research could be used to inform strategies focused on alleviating water stress around the world.

Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Gao, X.

2012-12-01

In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

Bioclimatic predictions of habitat suitability for the biofuel switchgrass in North America under current and future climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barney, Jacob N.; DiTomaso, Joseph M.

2010-01-01

Dedicated biofuel crops, while providing economic and other benefits, may adversely impact biodiversity directly via land use conversion, or indirectly via creation of novel invasive species. To mitigate negative impacts bioclimatic envelope models (BEM) can be used to estimate the potential distribution and suitable habitat based on the climate and distribution in the native range. We used CLIMEX to evaluate the regions of North America suitable for agronomic production, as well as regions potentially susceptible to an invasion of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) under both current and future climate scenarios. Model results show that >8.7 million km 2 of North America has suitable to very favorable habitat, most of which occurs east of the Rocky Mountains. The non-native range of western North America is largely unsuitable to switchgrass as a crop or potential weed unless irrigation or permanent water is available. Under both the CGCM2 and HadCM3 climate models and A2 and B2 emissions scenarios, an overall increase in suitable habitat is predicted over the coming century, although the western US remains unsuitable. Our results suggest that much of North America is suitable for switchgrass cultivation, although this is likely to shift north in the coming century. Our results also agree with field collections of switchgrass outside its native range, which indicate that switchgrass is unlikely to establish unless it has access to water throughout the year (e.g., along a stream). Thus, it is the potential invasion of switchgrass into riparian habitats in the West that requires further investigation. (author)

Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Payne, J.T.; Wood, A.W.; Hamlet, A.F.; Palmer, R.N.; Lettenmaier, D.P. [Department of Civil Engineering, 164 Wilcox Hall, P.O. Box 352700, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-2700 (United States)

2004-07-01

The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Columbia River Basin (CRB) were evaluated using simulations from the U.S. Department of Energy and National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (DOE/NCAR PCM). This study focuses on three climate projections for the 21st century based on a 'business as usual' (BAU) global emissions scenario, evaluated with respect to a control climate scenario based on static 1995 emissions. Time-varying monthly PCM temperature and precipitation changes were statistically downscaled and temporally disaggregated to produce daily forcings that drove a macro-scale hydrologic simulation model of the Columbia River basin at 1/4-degree spatial resolution. For comparison with the direct statistical downscaling approach, a dynamical downscaling approach using a regional climate model (RCM) was also used to derive hydrologic model forcings for 20-year subsets from the PCM control climate (1995-2015) scenario and from the three BAU climate (2040-2060) projections. The statistically downscaled PCM scenario results were assessed for three analysis periods (denoted Periods 1-3: 2010-2039, 2040-2069, 2070-2098) in which changes in annual average temperature were +0.5, +1.3 and +2.1C, respectively, while critical winter season precipitation changes were -3, +5 and +1 percent. For RCM, the predicted temperature change for the 2040-2060 period was +1.2C and the average winter precipitation change was -3 percent, relative to the RCM control climate. Due to the modest changes in winter precipitation, temperature changes dominated the simulated hydrologic effects by reducing winter snow accumulation, thus shifting summer streamflow to the winter. The hydrologic changes caused increased competition for reservoir storage between firm hydropower and instream flow targets developed pursuant to the Endangered Species Act listing of Columbia River salmonids. We examined several alternative

BECCS capability of dedicated bioenergy crops under a future land-use scenario targeting net negative carbon emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Kato, E.; Yamagata, Y.

2014-12-01

Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socio-economic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large-scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2°C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full post-process combustion CO2 capture is deployed with a high fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required, however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise a conflict of land-use with food production is inevitable.

The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.

2013-01-01

The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

The role of technology and policy in mitigating regional nitrogen pollution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gu Baojing; Zhu Yimei; Chang Jie; Liu Dong; Min Yong; Ge Ying; Peng Changhui; Luo Weidong; Howarth, Robert W

2011-01-01

Human activity greatly influences nitrogen (N) pollution in urbanized and adjacent areas. We comprehensively studied the N cycling in an urban-rural complex system, the Greater Hangzhou Area (GHA) in southeastern China. Our results indicated that subsurface N accumulation doubled, riverine N export tripled and atmospheric N pollutants increased 2.5 times within the GHA from 1980-2004. Agriculture was the largest N pollution source to air and water before 2000, whereas industry and human living gradually became the primary N pollution sources with the socioeconomic development. Based on the sensitivity analysis, we developed a scenario analysis to quantify the effects of technology and policy on environmental N dynamics. The fertilization reduction scenario suggested that the groundwater N pollution could decrease by 17% with less than a 5% reduction in crop production; the N effluent standard revision scenario led to a surface water N pollution reduction of 45%; the constructed wetlands implementation scenario could reduce surface water pollution by 43%-64%. Lastly, the technological improvement scenario mitigated atmospheric N pollution by 65%. Technologies play a key role in atmospheric N pollution control, policies mainly contribute to groundwater N pollution control, while technology and policy both work on surface water N mitigation within an urban-rural complex.

NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Beer, J.A.A.

2016-01-01

United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario

EU mitigation potential of harvested wood products.

Science.gov (United States)

Pilli, Roberto; Fiorese, Giulia; Grassi, Giacomo

2015-12-01

The new rules for the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry sector under the Kyoto Protocol recognized the importance of Harvested Wood Products (HWP) in climate change mitigation. We used the Tier 2 method proposed in the 2013 IPCC KP Supplement to estimate emissions and removals from HWP from 1990 to 2030 in EU-28 countries with three future harvest scenarios (constant historical average, and +/-20% in 2030). For the historical period (2000-2012) our results are consistent with other studies, indicating a HWP sink equal on average to -44.0 Mt CO 2 yr -1 (about 10% of the sink by forest pools). Assuming a constant historical harvest scenario and future distribution of the total harvest among each commodity, the HWP sink decreases to -22.9 Mt CO 2 yr -1 in 2030. The increasing and decreasing harvest scenarios produced a HWP sink of -43.2 and -9.0 Mt CO 2 yr -1 in 2030, respectively. Other factors may play an important role on HWP sink, including: (i) the relative share of different wood products, and (ii) the combined effect of production, import and export on the domestic production of each commodity. Maintaining a constant historical harvest, the HWP sink will slowly tend to saturate, i.e. to approach zero in the long term. The current HWP sink will be maintained only by further increasing the current harvest; however, this will tend to reduce the current sink in forest biomass, at least in the short term. Overall, our results suggest that: (i) there is limited potential for additional HWP sink in the EU; (ii) the HWP mitigation potential should be analyzed in conjunction with other mitigation components (e.g. sink in forest biomass, energy and material substitution by wood).

Comparison of turbulence mitigation algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Kozacik, Stephen T.; Paolini, Aaron; Sherman, Ariel; Bonnett, James; Kelmelis, Eric

2017-07-01

When capturing imagery over long distances, atmospheric turbulence often degrades the data, especially when observation paths are close to the ground or in hot environments. These issues manifest as time-varying scintillation and warping effects that decrease the effective resolution of the sensor and reduce actionable intelligence. In recent years, several image processing approaches to turbulence mitigation have shown promise. Each of these algorithms has different computational requirements, usability demands, and degrees of independence from camera sensors. They also produce different degrees of enhancement when applied to turbulent imagery. Additionally, some of these algorithms are applicable to real-time operational scenarios while others may only be suitable for postprocessing workflows. EM Photonics has been developing image-processing-based turbulence mitigation technology since 2005. We will compare techniques from the literature with our commercially available, real-time, GPU-accelerated turbulence mitigation software. These comparisons will be made using real (not synthetic), experimentally obtained data for a variety of conditions, including varying optical hardware, imaging range, subjects, and turbulence conditions. Comparison metrics will include image quality, video latency, computational complexity, and potential for real-time operation. Additionally, we will present a technique for quantitatively comparing turbulence mitigation algorithms using real images of radial resolution targets.

Costs of radon diagnostics and mitigation in school building

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leovic, K.W.; Rector, H.; Nagda, N.

1992-01-01

To determine the costs of radon diagnostics and active soil depressurization (ASD) system installation in schools, seven radon mitigators with extensive experience in school buildings were surveyed. The cost data were determined by providing the mitigators with two scenarios of open-quotes typicalclose quotes school buildings with elevated radon levels. The questionnaire in schools: (1) Review Construction Plans, (2) Conduct Diagnostic Measurements, (3) Design Mitigation System, (4) Purchase ASD Material, and (5) Install and Checkout ASD System. Based on the results of this survey, it is estimated that the average cost of ASD diagnostics and mitigation in a typical school would be roughly $0.50 per ft 2 . However, these costs would be higher in schools with extensive subslab walls, very poor PFE, and lower in simple schools with very good PFE and no subslab barriers to communication. The variations in costs provided by the mitigators are primarily due to the influences of (1) experience and practices of the mitigation companies, (2) ASD system requirements as perceived by the respondents, and (3) the degree of involvement by the school system in the process

The scenario approach to possible futures for oil and natural gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bentham, Jeremy

2014-01-01

Shell has been using scenario planning for 40 years to help deepen its strategic thinking. Developing and applying scenarios is part of an ongoing process in Shell that encourages decision-makers to explore the features, uncertainties, and boundaries of the future landscape, and engage with alternative points of view. Shell scenarios go beyond conventional energy outlooks and consider long-term trends in economics, energy supply and demand, geopolitical shifts and social change. They are based on plausible assumptions and quantification, and include the impact of different patterns of individual and collective choices. Shell′s latest scenario publication, the New Lens Scenarios, published in 2013, provides an in-depth analysis of how economic, social and political forces might play out over the 21st century, as well as their consequences for the global energy system and environment. Its ‘Mountains’ and ‘Oceans’ scenarios set out two distinct paths the world might take in the decades ahead. They reinforce the urgency and complexity of addressing the world's resource and environmental stresses, and highlight the need for business, government and society to find new ways to collaborate, fostering policies that promote the development and use of cleaner energy, and improve energy efficiency. - Highlights: • Shell has used scenarios to deepen its strategic thinking for 40 years. • Shell scenarios cover a broader set of drivers than traditional energy outlooks. • Shell's New Lens Scenarios were published in February 2013. • They look at trends in the economy, politics and energy over the 21st century. • Coordinated policies are essential to meeting the world's rising energy needs

SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario--Executive Summary and Introduction: Chapter A in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.; Miller, Kevin H.; Porter, Keith A.; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick I.; Bahng, Bohyun; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Borrero, Jose C.; Brosnan, Deborah M.; Bwarie, John T.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, Laurie A.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Knight, William R.; Long, Kate; Lynett, Patrick; Mortensen, Carl E.; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Perry, Suzanne C.; Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Real, Charles R.; Ryan, Kenneth; Suleimani, Elena; Thio, Hong Kie; Titov, Vasily V.; Whitmore, Paul M.; Wood, Nathan J.

2013-01-01

The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

Mitigation: cross-sectoral and other issues

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leemans, R. [National Inst. of Public Health and Environmental Protection, Bilthoven (Netherlands). Coordination Center for Effects

1996-12-31

Measures, methodologies and technologies to reduce emissions and enhance sinks of greenhouse gases (GHG) are assessed in this paper, together with other options for limiting anthropogenic climatic change and consequences. This chapter of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II`s 1996 report discusses the cross-sectorial potential for reducing emissions between areas discussed specifically in other chapters namely energy supply, industry, transportation, human settlements, agriculture and forestry, aiming to provide an integrated analysis of mitigation options with cross-cutting themes. Energy supply and demand issues within a low GHG emissions scenario are discussed as are issues relating to land use and land cover. Broadly-based concepts for counterbalancing climatic change are described and their mitigation potential assessed. (UK)

Evaluating climate change adaptation options for urban flooding in Copenhagen based on new high‐end emission scenario simulations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonhardsen, Lykke; Madsen, Henrik

2014-01-01

Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of impacts in Denmark using ensemble projections of the A1B scenario are supplemented by two high‐end scenario...... to change substantially. The impacts are assessed using Copenhagen as a case study. For both types of extremes large adaptation measures are essential in the global six degree scenario; dikes must be constructed to mitigate sea surge risk and a variety of measures to store or convey storm water must...... be implemented as well as new paradigms for city planning to mitigate the impact of change in extreme precipitation risk. For both hazards business‐as‐usual are not possible scenarios, because large autonomous adaptation will occur in lack of suitable policy‐driven changes. Copenhagen has developed an adaptation...

Regional-Scale Forcing and Feedbacks from Alternative Scenarios of Global-Scale Land Use Change

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, A. D.; Chini, L. P.; Collins, W.; Janetos, A. C.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Thomson, A. M.; Torn, M. S.

2011-12-01

Future patterns of land use change depend critically on the degree to which terrestrial carbon management strategies, such as biological carbon sequestration and biofuels, are utilized in order to mitigate global climate change. Furthermore, land use change associated with terrestrial carbon management induces biogeophysical changes to surface energy budgets that perturb climate at regional and possibly global scales, activating different feedback processes depending on the nature and location of the land use change. As a first step in a broader effort to create an integrated earth system model, we examine two scenarios of future anthropogenic activity generated by the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) within the full-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). Each scenario stabilizes radiative forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols at 4.5 W/m^2. In the first, stabilization is achieved through a universal carbon tax that values terrestrial carbon equally with fossil carbon, leading to modest afforestation globally and low biofuel utilization. In the second scenario, stabilization is achieved with a tax on fossil fuel and industrial carbon alone. In this case, biofuel utilization increases dramatically and crop area expands to claim approximately 50% of forest cover globally. By design, these scenarios exhibit identical climate forcing from atmospheric constituents. Thus, differences among them can be attributed to the biogeophysical effects of land use change. In addition, we utilize offline radiative transfer and offline land model simulations to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms operating in different regions. We find that boreal deforestation has a strong climatic signature due to significant albedo change coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Tropical deforestation, on the other hand, has more subtle effects on climate. Globally, the two scenarios yield warming trends over the 21st century that differ by 0.5 degrees Celsius. This

The Implications of Deep Mitigation Pathways

Science.gov (United States)

Calvin, K. V.

2016-12-01

The 21st Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC agreement called for limiting climate change to "well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C." A climate target of 1.5°C places a stringent constraint on allowable emissions over the twenty-first century. Roegli et al. (2015) set that constraint at 200-415 GtCO2 between 2011 and 2100 for a likely chance of staying below 1.5°C in 2100. Limiting emissions to these levels requires that global emissions peak and decline over the coming decades, with net negative global emissions by mid-century. This level of decarbonization requires dramatic shifts in the energy and agricultural sectors, and comes at significant economic costs. This talk explores the effect of mitigating climate change to 1.5°C on the economy, energy system, and terrestrial system. We quantify the required deployment of various low carbon technologies, as well as the amount of existing capital that is abandoned in an effort to limit emissions. We show the shifts required in the terrestrial system, including its contribution to carbon sequestration through afforestation and bioenergy. Additionally, we show the implications of deep mitigation pathways on energy, food, and carbon prices. We contrast these results with a reference, no climate policy, world and a 2°C.

Global energy context: future scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beretta, Gian Paolo

2006-01-01

After a brief analysis of the history of global energy consumption, this paper discusses a plausible scenario of energy needs and related carbon emissions for the rest of the century. The global outlook and the probable evolution of several factors that impact on energy policy considerations - even on the local scale - demonstrate the great complexity and planetary dimension of the problems, as well as the almost certain sterility of out-of-context domestic energy-policy measures [it

Flood-inundation and flood-mitigation modeling of the West Branch Wapsinonoc Creek Watershed in West Branch, Iowa

Science.gov (United States)

Cigrand, Charles V.

2018-03-26

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the city of West Branch and the Herbert Hoover National Historic Site of the National Park Service assessed flood-mitigation scenarios within the West Branch Wapsinonoc Creek watershed. The scenarios are intended to demonstrate several means of decreasing peak streamflows and improving the conveyance of overbank flows from the West Branch Wapsinonoc Creek and its tributary Hoover Creek where they flow through the city and the Herbert Hoover National Historic Site located within the city.Hydrologic and hydraulic models of the watershed were constructed to assess the flood-mitigation scenarios. To accomplish this, the models used the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC–HMS) version 4.2 to simulate the amount of runoff and streamflow produced from single rain events. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) version 5.0 was then used to construct an unsteady-state model that may be used for routing streamflows, mapping areas that may be inundated during floods, and simulating the effects of different measures taken to decrease the effects of floods on people and infrastructure.Both models were calibrated to three historic rainfall events that produced peak streamflows ranging between the 2-year and 10-year flood-frequency recurrence intervals at the USGS streamgage (05464942) on Hoover Creek. The historic rainfall events were calibrated by using data from two USGS streamgages along with surveyed high-water marks from one of the events. The calibrated HEC–HMS model was then used to simulate streamflows from design rainfall events of 24-hour duration ranging from a 20-percent to a 1-percent annual exceedance probability. These simulated streamflows were incorporated into the HEC–RAS model.The unsteady-state HEC–RAS model was calibrated to represent existing conditions within the watershed. HEC–RAS model simulations with the

The role of energy-service demand reduction in global climate change mitigation: Combining energy modelling and decomposition analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kesicki, Fabian; Anandarajah, Gabrial

2011-01-01

In order to reduce energy-related CO 2 emissions different options have been considered: energy efficiency improvements, structural changes to low carbon or zero carbon fuel/technologies, carbon sequestration, and reduction in energy-service demands (useful energy). While efficiency and technology options have been extensively studied within the context of climate change mitigation, this paper addresses the possible role of price-related energy-service demand reduction. For this analysis, the elastic demand version of the TIAM-UCL global energy system model is used in combination with decomposition analysis. The results of the CO 2 emission decomposition indicate that a reduction in energy-service demand can play a limited role, contributing around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. A look at the sectoral level reveals that the demand reduction can play a greater role in selected sectors like transport contributing around 16% at a global level. The societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. - Highlights: → A reduction in global energy-service demand can contribute around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. → The role of demand is a lot higher in transport than in the residential sector. → Contribution of demand reduction is higher in early periods of the 21st century. → Societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. → Regional shares in residual emissions vary under different elasticity scenarios.

The role of energy-service demand reduction in global climate change mitigation: Combining energy modelling and decomposition analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kesicki, Fabian, E-mail: fabian.kesicki.09@ucl.ac.uk [UCL Energy Institute, University College London, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London, WC1H 0NN (United Kingdom); Anandarajah, Gabrial [UCL Energy Institute, University College London, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London, WC1H 0NN (United Kingdom)

2011-11-15

In order to reduce energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions different options have been considered: energy efficiency improvements, structural changes to low carbon or zero carbon fuel/technologies, carbon sequestration, and reduction in energy-service demands (useful energy). While efficiency and technology options have been extensively studied within the context of climate change mitigation, this paper addresses the possible role of price-related energy-service demand reduction. For this analysis, the elastic demand version of the TIAM-UCL global energy system model is used in combination with decomposition analysis. The results of the CO{sub 2} emission decomposition indicate that a reduction in energy-service demand can play a limited role, contributing around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. A look at the sectoral level reveals that the demand reduction can play a greater role in selected sectors like transport contributing around 16% at a global level. The societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. - Highlights: > A reduction in global energy-service demand can contribute around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. > The role of demand is a lot higher in transport than in the residential sector. > Contribution of demand reduction is higher in early periods of the 21st century. > Societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. > Regional shares in residual emissions vary under different elasticity scenarios.

Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolás; Nadal, Gustavo; Lallana, Francisco; Falzon, James; Calvin, Katherine

2016-01-01

In this paper the LEAP, TIAM-ECN, and GCAM models were applied to evaluate the impact of a variety of climate change control policies (including carbon pricing and emission constraints relative to a base year) on primary energy consumption, final energy consumption, electricity sector development, and CO_2 emission savings of the energy sector in Argentina over the 2010–2050 period. The LEAP model results indicate that if Argentina fully implements the most feasible mitigation measures currently under consideration by official bodies and key academic institutions on energy supply and demand, such as the ProBiomass program, a cumulative incremental economic cost of 22.8 billion US$(2005) to 2050 is expected, resulting in a 16% reduction in GHG emissions compared to a business-as-usual scenario. These measures also bring economic co-benefits, such as a reduction of energy imports improving the balance of trade. A Low CO_2 price scenario in LEAP results in the replacement of coal by nuclear and wind energy in electricity expansion. A High CO_2 price leverages additional investments in hydropower. By way of cross-model comparison with the TIAM-ECN and GCAM global integrated assessment models, significant variation in projected emissions reductions in the carbon price scenarios was observed, which illustrates the inherent uncertainties associated with such long-term projections. These models predict approximately 37% and 94% reductions under the High CO_2 price scenario, respectively. By comparison, the LEAP model, using an approach based on the assessment of a limited set of mitigation options, predicts an 11.3% reduction. The main reasons for this difference include varying assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO_2 storage capacity, and the ability to import bioenergy. An emission cap scenario (2050 emissions 20% lower than 2010 emissions) is feasible by including such measures as CCS and Bio CCS, but at a significant cost. In terms of technology

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

2013-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

The mitigation effect of configuration and context optimization of urban holdings on heat island

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Y P; Yu, D Y; Xun, B

2014-01-01

The urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon has become a serious problem in recent years. It is necessary to study the mitigation methods and quantify their effects on UHI. In this paper, based on the remote sensed data, an empirical model was established as a negative function of land surface temperature (LST) to vegetation coverage. Urban heat island intensity (UHII) was estimated by a robust statistic algorithm. Compared with the current condition (vegetation coverage equaling to 0%), five high vegetation coverage building scenarios (10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, and 50%) were designed to explore mitigation effects on UHI separately. The results showed that the mean LST increase by about 0.5°C when vegetation coverage decrease by 0.1. UHII has a considerable decrease when the scenarios of vegetation coverage equaling to 20% and 40%, respectively. The reasonable vegetation configuration is the effective UHI mitigation

Long-term implications of alternative light-duty vehicle technologies for global greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kyle, Page; Kim, Son H.

2011-01-01

This study assesses global light-duty vehicle (LDV) transport in the upcoming century, and the implications of vehicle technology advancement and fuel-switching on greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands. Five different vehicle technology scenarios are analyzed with and without a CO 2 emissions mitigation policy using the GCAM integrated assessment model: a reference internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, an advanced internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, and three alternative fuel vehicle scenarios in which all LDVs are switched to natural gas, electricity, or hydrogen by 2050. The emissions mitigation policy is a global CO 2 emissions price pathway that achieves 450 ppmv CO 2 at the end of the century with reference vehicle technologies. The scenarios demonstrate considerable emissions mitigation potential from LDV technology; with and without emissions pricing, global CO 2 concentrations in 2095 are reduced about 10 ppmv by advanced ICEV technologies and natural gas vehicles, and 25 ppmv by electric or hydrogen vehicles. All technological advances in vehicles are important for reducing the oil demands of LDV transport and their corresponding CO 2 emissions. Among advanced and alternative vehicle technologies, electricity- and hydrogen-powered vehicles are especially valuable for reducing whole-system emissions and total primary energy. - Highlights: → Alternative-fuel LDVs reduce whole-system CO 2 emissions, even without carbon pricing. → Alternative-fuel LDVs enhance the CO 2 mitigation capacity of the transportation sector. → Electric and hydrogen vehicles reduce whole-system primary energy supporting LDV transport.

NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

OpenAIRE

de Beer, J.A.A.

2016-01-01

United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario projects less population growth in Nigeria and sharp population decline in China.

Mitigation options in forestry, land-use change and biomass burning in Africa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Makundi, Willy R.L. [Univ. of California, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (United States)

1998-10-01

Mitigation options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester carbon in land use sectors are described in some detail. The paper highlights those options in the forestry sector, which are more relevant to different parts of Africa. It briefly outlines a bottom-up methodological framework for comprehensively assessing mitigation options in land use sectors. This method emphasizes the application of end-use demand projections to construct baseline and mitigation scenarios and explicitly addresses the carbon storage potential on land an in wood products, as well as use of wood to substitute for fossil fuels. Cost-effectiveness indicators for ranking mitigation options are proposed, including those which account for non-carbon monetary benefits such as those derived from forest products, as well as opportunity cost of pursuing specific mitigation option. The paper finally surveys the likely policies, barriers and incentives to implement such mitigation options in African countries. (au) 13 refs.

Mitigation Options in Forestry, Land-Use, Change and Biomass Burning in Africa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Makundi, Willy R.

1998-01-01

Mitigation options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester carbon in land use sectors are describe in some detail. The paper highlights those options in the forestry sector, which are more relevant to different parts of Africa. It briefly outlines a bottom-up methodological framework for comprehensively assessing mitigation options in land use sectors. This method emphasizes the application of end-use demand projections to construct a baseline and mitigation scenarios and explicitly addresses the carbon storage potential on land and in wood products, as well as use of wood to substitute for fossil fuels. Cost-effectiveness indicators for ranking mitigation options are proposed, including those, which account for non-carbon monetary benefits such as those derived from forest products, as well as opportunity cost of pursuing specific mitigation option. The paper finally surveys the likely policies, barriers and incentives to implement such mitigation options in African countries.; copyrighted ; Y

Mitigation options in forestry, land-use change and biomass burning in Africa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Makundi, Willy R.L.

1998-01-01

Mitigation options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester carbon in land use sectors are described in some detail. The paper highlights those options in the forestry sector, which are more relevant to different parts of Africa. It briefly outlines a bottom-up methodological framework for comprehensively assessing mitigation options in land use sectors. This method emphasizes the application of end-use demand projections to construct baseline and mitigation scenarios and explicitly addresses the carbon storage potential on land an in wood products, as well as use of wood to substitute for fossil fuels. Cost-effectiveness indicators for ranking mitigation options are proposed, including those which account for non-carbon monetary benefits such as those derived from forest products, as well as opportunity cost of pursuing specific mitigation option. The paper finally surveys the likely policies, barriers and incentives to implement such mitigation options in African countries. (au) 13 refs

Planning ahead for asteroid and comet hazard mitigation, phase 1: parameter space exploration and scenario modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Plesko, Catherine S [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Clement, R Ryan [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Weaver, Robert P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bradley, Paul A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Huebner, Walter F [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2009-01-01

The mitigation of impact hazards resulting from Earth-approaching asteroids and comets has received much attention in the popular press. However, many questions remain about the near-term and long-term, feasibility and appropriate application of all proposed methods. Recent and ongoing ground- and space-based observations of small solar-system body composition and dynamics have revolutionized our understanding of these bodies (e.g., Ryan (2000), Fujiwara et al. (2006), and Jedicke et al. (2006)). Ongoing increases in computing power and algorithm sophistication make it possible to calculate the response of these inhomogeneous objects to proposed mitigation techniques. Here we present the first phase of a comprehensive hazard mitigation planning effort undertaken by Southwest Research Institute and Los Alamos National Laboratory. We begin by reviewing the parameter space of the object's physical and chemical composition and trajectory. We then use the radiation hydrocode RAGE (Gittings et al. 2008), Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) radiation transport (see Clement et al., this conference), and N-body dynamics codes to explore the effects these variations in object properties have on the coupling of energy into the object from a variety of mitigation techniques, including deflection and disruption by nuclear and conventional munitions, and a kinetic impactor.

Global projections of 21st century land-use changes in regions adjacent to Protected Areas.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Linda J Beaumont

Full Text Available The conservation efficiency of Protected Areas (PA is influenced by the health and characteristics of the surrounding landscape matrix. Fragmentation of adjacent lands interrupts ecological flows within PAs and will decrease the ability of species to shift their distribution as climate changes. For five periods across the 21(st century, we assessed changes to the extent of primary land, secondary land, pasture and crop land projected to occur within 50 km buffers surrounding IUCN-designated PAs. Four scenarios of land-use were obtained from the Land-Use Harmonization Project, developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5. The scenarios project the continued decline of primary lands within buffers surrounding PAs. Substantial losses are projected to occur across buffer regions in the tropical forest biomes of Indo-Malayan and the Temperate Broadleaf forests of the Nearctic. A number of buffer regions are projected to have negligible primary land remaining by 2100, including those in the Afrotropic's Tropical/Subtropical Grassland/Savanna/Shrubland. From 2010-2050, secondary land is projected to increase within most buffer regions, although, as with pasture and crops within tropical and temperate forests, projections from the four land-use scenarios may diverge substantially in magnitude and direction of change. These scenarios demonstrate a range of alternate futures, and show that although effective mitigation strategies may reduce pressure on land surrounding PAs, these areas will contain an increasingly heterogeneous matrix of primary and human-modified landscapes. Successful management of buffer regions will be imperative to ensure effectiveness of PAs and to facilitate climate-induced shifts in species ranges.

Scenario study on the FBR deployment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ono, Kiyoshi; Kofuji, Hirohide; Otaki, Akira; Yonezawa, Shigeaki; Shinoda, Yoshihiko; Hirao, Kazunori; Ikegami, Tetsuo

2000-12-01

This study on success scenarios for the Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) deployment was performed taking account of future situation of fossil, renewable and nuclear energies in Japan as well as the world from the viewpoints of the following four items; economics, environment, energy security and restriction of natural uranium resources. In the economics scenario, if carbon tax is added to generating cost of LNG, coal and oil and the economics of FBR cycle is competitive with LWR cycle in the future, FBR cycle will be expected to introduce as the middle and base load power plant. In the environment scenario, there is also any possibility that FBR cycle which can burn and transmute minor actinide and fission product elements will be introduced in order to reduce the burden of deposit facility and the toxicity of high-level waste. In the uranium resources restriction scenario, FBR cycle needs to be deployed at the latest in the middle of 21st century from the viewpoint of the restriction of natural uranium resources. This study was carried out in a part of JNC's feasibility study on commercialized FBR cycle system. (author)

Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?

Science.gov (United States)

Pendergrass, Angeline; Lehner, Flavio; Sanderson, Benjamin; Xu, Yangyang

2016-04-01

The rate of increase of global-mean precipitation per degree surface temperature increase differs for greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings, and therefore depends on the change in composition of the emissions scenario used to drive climate model simulations for the remainder of the century. We investigate whether or not this is also the case for extreme precipitation simulated by a multi-model ensemble driven by four realistic emissions scenarios. In most models, the rate of increase of maximum annual daily rainfall per degree global warming in the multi-model ensemble is statistically indistinguishable across the four scenarios, whether this extreme precipitation is calculated globally, over all land, or over extra-tropical land. These results indicate that, in most models, extreme precipitation depends on the total amount of warming and does not depend on emissions scenario, in contrast to mean precipitation.

Scenarios of energy demand and efficiency potential for Bulgaria

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tzvetanov, P.; Ruicheva, M.; Denisiev, M.

1996-12-31

The paper presents aggregated results on macroeconomic and final energy demand scenarios developed within the Bulgarian Country Study on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation, supported by US Country Studies Program. The studies in this area cover 5 main stages: (1) {open_quotes}Baseline{close_quotes} and {open_quotes}Energy Efficiency{close_quotes} socioeconomic and energy policy philosophy; (2) Modeling of macroeconomic and sectoral development till 2020; (3) Expert assessments on the technological options for energy efficiency increase and GHG mitigation in the Production, Transport and Households and Services Sectors; (4) Bottom-up modeling of final energy demand; and (5) Sectoral and overall energy efficiency potential and policy. Within the Bulgarian Country Study, the presented results have served as a basis for the final integration stage {open_quotes}Assessment of the Mitigation Policy and Measures in the Energy System of Bulgaria{close_quotes}.

Implications of Climate Mitigation for Future Agricultural Production

Science.gov (United States)

Mueller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schmid, Erwin

2015-01-01

Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization. Consequently, analysis of the effects of climate mitigation on agricultural productivity must address not only regions for which mitigation is likely to reduce or even reverse climate damages. There are also regions that are likely to see increased crop yields due to climate change, which may lose these added potentials under mitigation action. Comparing data from the most comprehensive archive of crop yield projections publicly available, we find that climate mitigation leads to overall benefits from avoided damages at the global scale and especially in many regions that are already at risk of food insecurity today. Ignoring controversial carbon dioxide fertilization effects on crop productivity, we find that for the median projection aggressive mitigation could eliminate approximately 81% of the negative impacts of climate change on biophysical agricultural productivity globally by the end of the century. In this case, the benefits of mitigation typically extend well into temperate regions, but vary by crop and underlying climate model projections. Should large benefits to crop yields from carbon dioxide fertilization be realized, the effects of mitigation become much more mixed, though still positive globally and beneficial in many

Implications of climate mitigation for future agricultural production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Pugh, Thomas A M; Schmid, Erwin

2015-01-01

Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization. Consequently, analysis of the effects of climate mitigation on agricultural productivity must address not only regions for which mitigation is likely to reduce or even reverse climate damages. There are also regions that are likely to see increased crop yields due to climate change, which may lose these added potentials under mitigation action. Comparing data from the most comprehensive archive of crop yield projections publicly available, we find that climate mitigation leads to overall benefits from avoided damages at the global scale and especially in many regions that are already at risk of food insecurity today. Ignoring controversial carbon dioxide fertilization effects on crop productivity, we find that for the median projection aggressive mitigation could eliminate ∼81% of the negative impacts of climate change on biophysical agricultural productivity globally by the end of the century. In this case, the benefits of mitigation typically extend well into temperate regions, but vary by crop and underlying climate model projections. Should large benefits to crop yields from carbon dioxide fertilization be realized, the effects of mitigation become much more mixed, though still positive globally and beneficial in many food insecure

Modelling climate change effects on Atlantic salmon: Implications for mitigation in regulated rivers.

Science.gov (United States)

Sundt-Hansen, L E; Hedger, R D; Ugedal, O; Diserud, O H; Finstad, A G; Sauterleute, J F; Tøfte, L; Alfredsen, K; Forseth, T

2018-08-01

Climate change is expected to alter future temperature and discharge regimes of rivers. These regimes have a strong influence on the life history of most aquatic river species, and are key variables controlling the growth and survival of Atlantic salmon. This study explores how the future abundance of Atlantic salmon may be influenced by climate-induced changes in water temperature and discharge in a regulated river, and investigates how negative impacts in the future can be mitigated by applying different regulated discharge regimes during critical periods for salmon survival. A spatially explicit individual-based model was used to predict juvenile Atlantic salmon population abundance in a regulated river under a range of future water temperature and discharge scenarios (derived from climate data predicted by the Hadley Centre's Global Climate Model (GCM) HadAm3H and the Max Plank Institute's GCM ECHAM4), which were then compared with populations predicted under control scenarios representing past conditions. Parr abundance decreased in all future scenarios compared to the control scenarios due to reduced wetted areas (with the effect depending on climate scenario, GCM, and GCM spatial domain). To examine the potential for mitigation of climate change-induced reductions in wetted area, simulations were run with specific minimum discharge regimes. An increase in abundance of both parr and smolt occurred with an increase in the limit of minimum permitted discharge for three of the four GCM/GCM spatial domains examined. This study shows that, in regulated rivers with upstream storage capacity, negative effects of climate change on Atlantic salmon populations can potentially be mitigated by release of water from reservoirs during critical periods for juvenile salmon. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Evaluation of low impact development approach for mitigating flood inundation at a watershed scale in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Maochuan; Sayama, Takahiro; Zhang, Xingqi; Tanaka, Kenji; Takara, Kaoru; Yang, Hong

2017-05-15

Low impact development (LID) has attracted growing attention as an important approach for urban flood mitigation. Most studies evaluating LID performance for mitigating floods focus on the changes of peak flow and runoff volume. This paper assessed the performance of LID practices for mitigating flood inundation hazards as retrofitting technologies in an urbanized watershed in Nanjing, China. The findings indicate that LID practices are effective for flood inundation mitigation at the watershed scale, and especially for reducing inundated areas with a high flood hazard risk. Various scenarios of LID implementation levels can reduce total inundated areas by 2%-17% and areas with a high flood hazard level by 6%-80%. Permeable pavement shows better performance than rainwater harvesting against mitigating urban waterlogging. The most efficient scenario is combined rainwater harvesting on rooftops with a cistern capacity of 78.5 mm and permeable pavement installed on 75% of non-busy roads and other impervious surfaces. Inundation modeling is an effective approach to obtaining the information necessary to guide decision-making for designing LID practices at watershed scales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conceptual study on air ingress mitigation for VHTRs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oh, Chang H.; Kim, Eung Soo

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Important factors that affect air-ingress process in the VHTRs were investigated and identified. ► Two air ingress mitigation concepts were developed using a root-cause analysis. ► These concepts were validated using computational fluid dynamic method. ► In-vessel helium injection and ex-vessel enclosure concept will mitigate air-ingress effectively. - Abstract: An air ingress accident following a postulated pipe break is considered a critical event for a very high temperature gas-cooled reactor (VHTR) safety. Following helium depressurization, it is anticipated that air will enter the core through the break leading to oxidation of the in-core graphite structures. Under extreme circumstances and without mitigation features this accident may lead to exothermic chemical reactions between graphite and oxygen depending on the accident scenario and the design. Under extreme circumstances (beyond design basis), a loss of structural integrity may occur in some core structures and lead to elevated release of radiological inventory for the fuel matrix. This paper discusses various air ingress mitigation concepts applicable for the VHTRs that would prevent core damage even in the most extreme scenarios. The study begins with identifying important factors (or phenomena) associated with the air ingress accident using root-cause analysis. By preventing main causes of the important events identified in the root-cause diagram, the basic air ingress mitigation ideas were conceived and developed. Among them, two concepts were finally evaluated as effective candidates. One concept is to inject helium directly into the lower plenum (direct in-vessel injection); the other concept is to enclose the reactor with a non-pressure boundary with an opening at the bottom (ex-vessel enclosure). Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods were used to evaluate these concepts for proof of these principles. Results indicate that both concepts can effectively suppress air

Conceptual study on air ingress mitigation for VHTRs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oh, Chang H., E-mail: Chang.Oh@inl.gov [Idaho National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1625, Idaho Falls, ID 83415-3870 (United States); Kim, Eung Soo [Department of Nuclear Engineering, Seoul National University, 559 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2012-09-15

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Important factors that affect air-ingress process in the VHTRs were investigated and identified. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Two air ingress mitigation concepts were developed using a root-cause analysis. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer These concepts were validated using computational fluid dynamic method. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer In-vessel helium injection and ex-vessel enclosure concept will mitigate air-ingress effectively. - Abstract: An air ingress accident following a postulated pipe break is considered a critical event for a very high temperature gas-cooled reactor (VHTR) safety. Following helium depressurization, it is anticipated that air will enter the core through the break leading to oxidation of the in-core graphite structures. Under extreme circumstances and without mitigation features this accident may lead to exothermic chemical reactions between graphite and oxygen depending on the accident scenario and the design. Under extreme circumstances (beyond design basis), a loss of structural integrity may occur in some core structures and lead to elevated release of radiological inventory for the fuel matrix. This paper discusses various air ingress mitigation concepts applicable for the VHTRs that would prevent core damage even in the most extreme scenarios. The study begins with identifying important factors (or phenomena) associated with the air ingress accident using root-cause analysis. By preventing main causes of the important events identified in the root-cause diagram, the basic air ingress mitigation ideas were conceived and developed. Among them, two concepts were finally evaluated as effective candidates. One concept is to inject helium directly into the lower plenum (direct in-vessel injection); the other concept is to enclose the reactor with a non-pressure boundary with an opening at the bottom (ex-vessel enclosure). Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods were used to evaluate these concepts

Evaluation of lifecycle CO2 emissions from the Japanese electric power sector in the 21st century under various nuclear scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tokimatsu, Koji; Kosugi, Takanobu; Asami, Takayoshi; Williams, Eric; Kaya, Yoichi

2006-01-01

The status and prospects of the development of Japanese nuclear power are controversial and uncertain. Many deem that nuclear power can play key roles in both supplying energy and abating CO 2 emissions; however, due to severe nuclear accidents, public acceptance of nuclear power in Japan has not been fully obtained. Moreover, deregulation and liberalization of the electricity market impose pressure on large Japanese electric power companies with regard to both the operation of nuclear power plants and the development of the nuclear fuel cycle. Long-term Japanese CO 2 reduction strategies up to 2100 are of environmental concern and are socially demanded under the circumstances described above. Taking these factors into account, we set the following two objectives for this study. One is to estimate lifecycle CO 2 (LCCO 2 ) emissions from Japanese nuclear power, and the other is to evaluate CO 2 emissions from the Japanese electric power sector in the 21st century by quantifying the relationship between LCCO 2 emissions and scenarios for the adoption of nuclear power. In the pursuit of the above objectives, we first create four scenarios of Japanese adoption of nuclear power, that range from nuclear power promotion to phase-out. Next, we formulate four scenarios describing the mix of the total electricity supply in Japan till the year 2100 corresponding to each of these nuclear power scenarios. CO 2 emissions from the electric power sector in Japan till the year 2100 are estimated by summing those generated by each respective electric power technology and LCCO 2 emission intensity. The LCCO 2 emission intensity of nuclear power for both light water reactors (LWR) and fast breeder reactors (FBR) includes the uranium fuel production chain, facility construction/operation/decommission, and spent fuel processing/disposal. From our investigations, we conclude that the promotion of nuclear power is clearly a strong option for reducing CO 2 emissions by the electric power

Mitigation - how to buy time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gunasekera, D.

2007-01-01

Full text: Full text: There is growing consensus in the global scientific community that human induced greenhouse gas emissions have increased the atmospheric concentration of these gases which has led, and will continue to lead to changes in regional and global climate. Climate change is projected to impact on Australian and global economic, biophysical, social and environmental systems. The impacts of climate change can be reduced by implementing a range of mitigation and adaptation strategies. The optimal policy response will depend on the relative costs and benefits of climate change impacts, and mitigation and adaptation responses. The focus in this presentation is to identify the key determinants that can reduce the cost of international mitigation responses. It is important to recognise that since cumulative emissions are the primary driver of atmospheric concentrations, mitigation policies should be assessed against their capacity to reduce cumulative emissions overtime, rather than at given time points only. If global greenhouse gas abatement costs are to be minimised, it is desirable that the coverage of countries, emission sources and technologies that are a part of any multilateral effort be as wide as possible. In this context the development and diffusion of clean technologies globally can play a key role in the future reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, according to scenarios analysed by ABARE. Furthermore, technology 'push' (for example, research and development policies) and 'pull' (for example, emission trading) policies will be required to achieve such an outcome

Advanced insider threat mitigation workshop instructional materials

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gibbs, Philip [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Larsen, Robert [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); O Brien, Mike [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Edmunds, Tom [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2008-11-01

Insiders represent a formidable threat to nuclear facilities. This set of workshop materials covers methodologies to analyze and approaches to mitigate the threat of an insider attempting abrupt and protracted theft of nuclear materials. This particular set of materials is a n update of a January 2008 version to add increased emphasis on Material Control and Accounting and its role with respect to protracted insider nuclear material theft scenarios.

Sustainable passenger road transport scenarios to reduce fuel consumption, air pollutants and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chavez-Baeza, Carlos; Sheinbaum-Pardo, Claudia

2014-01-01

This paper presents passenger road transport scenarios that may assist the MCMA (Mexico City Metropolitan Area) in achieving lower emissions in both criteria air pollutants (CO, NO x , NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic compounds), and PM 10 ) and GHG (greenhouse gas) (CH 4 , N 2 O and CO 2 ), while also promoting better mobility and quality of life in this region. We developed a bottom-up model to estimate the historical trends of energy demand, criteria air pollutants and GHG emissions caused by passenger vehicles circulating in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) in order to construct a baseline scenario and two mitigation scenarios that project their impact to 2028. Mitigation scenario “eff” considers increasing fuel efficiencies and introducing new technologies for vehicle emission controls. Mitigation scenario “BRT” considers a modal shift from private car trips to a Bus Rapid Transport system. Our results show significant reductions in air pollutants and GHG emissions. Incentives and environmental regulations are needed to enable these scenarios. - Highlights: • More than 4.2 million passenger vehicles in the MCMA (Mexico City Metropolitan Area) that represent 61% of criteria pollutants and 44% of GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions. • Emissions of CO, NO x and NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic compounds) in baseline scenario decrease with respect to its 2008 value because emission standards. • Emissions of PM 10 and GHG increase in baseline scenario. • Emissions of PM 10 and GHG decrease in eff + BRT scenario from year 2020. • Additional reductions are possible with better standards for diesel vehicles and other technologies

Mitigation technologies and measures in energy sector of Kazakstan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pilifosova, O.; Danchuk, D.; Temertekov, T. [and others

1996-12-31

An important commitment in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is to conduct mitigation analysis and to communicate climate change measures and policies. In major part reducing CO{sub 2} as well as the other greenhouse gas emissions in Kazakstan, can be a side-product of measures addressed to increasing energy efficiency. Since such measures are very important for the national economy, mitigation strategies in the energy sector of Kazakstan are directly connected with the general national strategy of the energy sector development. This paper outlines the main measures and technologies in energy sector of Kazakstan which can lead to GHG emissions reduction and presents the results of current mitigation assessment. The mitigation analysis is addressed to energy production sector. A baseline and six mitigation scenarios were developed to evaluate the most attractive mitigation options, focusing on specific technologies which have been already included in sustainable energy programs. According to the baseline projection, Kazakstan`s CO{sub 2} emissions will not exceed their 1990 level until 2005. The potential for CO{sub 2} emission reduction is estimated to be about 11 % of the base line emission level by the end of considered period (in 2020). The main mitigation options in the energy production sector in terms of mitigation potential and technical and economical feasibility include rehabilitation of thermal power plants aimed to increasing efficiency, use of nuclear energy and further expansion in the use of hydro energy based on small hydroelectric power plants.

Policy trade-offs between climate mitigation and clean cook-stove access in South Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Cameron, Colin; Pachauri, Shonali; Rao, Narasimha D.; McCollum, David; Rogelj, Joeri; Riahi, Keywan

2016-01-01

Household air pollution from traditional cook stoves presents a greater health hazard than any other environmental factor. Despite government efforts to support clean-burning cooking fuels, over 700 million people in South Asia could still rely on traditional stoves in 2030. This number could rise if climate change mitigation efforts increase energy costs. Here we quantify the costs of support policies to make clean cooking affordable to all South Asians under four increasingly stringent climate policy scenarios. Our most stringent mitigation scenario increases clean fuel costs 38% in 2030 relative to the baseline, keeping 21% more South Asians on traditional stoves or increasing the minimum support policy cost to achieve universal clean cooking by up to 44%. The extent of this increase depends on how policymakers allocate subsidies between clean fuels and stoves. These additional costs are within the range of financial transfers to South Asia estimated in efforts-sharing scenarios of international climate agreements.

The role of fusion power in energy scenarios. Proposed method and review of existing scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lako, P; Ybema, J.R.; Seebregts, A.J.

1998-04-01

The European Commission wishes more insight in the potential role of fusion energy in the second half of the 21st century. Therefore, several scenario studies are carried out in the so-called macro-task Long Term Scenarios to investigate the potential role of fusion power in the energy system. The main contribution of ECN to the macro-task is to perform a long term energy scenario study for Western Europe with special focus on the role of fusion power. This interim report gives some methodological considerations for such an analysis. A discussion is given on the problems related to the long time horizon of the scenario study such as the forecast of technological innovations, the selection of appropriate discount rates and the links with climate change. Key parameters which are expected to have large effects on the role and cost-effectiveness are discussed in general terms. The key parameters to be varied include level and structure of energy demand, availability and prices of fossil energy, CO2 reduction policy, discount rates, cost and potential of renewable energy sources, availability of fission power and CO2 capture and disposal and the cost and the maximum rate of market growth of fusion power. The scenario calculations are to be performed later in the project with the help of an existing cost minimisation model of the Western European energy system. This MARKAL model is briefly introduced. The results of the model calculations are expected to make clear under which combinations of scenario parameters fusion power is needed and how large the expected financial benefits will be. The present interim report also gives an evaluation of existing energy scenarios with respect to the role of fusion power. 18 refs

Consequence of climate mitigation on the risk of hunger.

Science.gov (United States)

Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Tanaka, Akemi; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko

2015-06-16

Climate change and mitigation measures have three major impacts on food consumption and the risk of hunger: (1) changes in crop yields caused by climate change; (2) competition for land between food crops and energy crops driven by the use of bioenergy; and (3) costs associated with mitigation measures taken to meet an emissions reduction target that keeps the global average temperature increase to 2 °C. In this study, we combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and we quantified the three impacts on risk of hunger through 2050 based on the uncertainty range associated with 12 climate models and one economic and demographic scenario. The strong mitigation measures aimed at attaining the 2 °C target reduce the negative effects of climate change on yields but have large negative impacts on the risk of hunger due to mitigation costs in the low-income countries. We also found that in a strongly carbon-constrained world, the change in food consumption resulting from mitigation measures depends more strongly on the change in incomes than the change in food prices.

Analysis of long-term energy scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lemming, J.; Morthorst, P.E.

1998-09-01

When addressing the role of fusion energy in the 21. century, the evaluation of possible future structures in the electricity market and the energy sector as a whole, can be a useful tool. Because fusion energy still needs demonstration, commercialized fusion energy is not likely to be a reality within the next few decades. Therefore long-term scenarios are needed describing the energy markets, which fusion energy eventually will be part of. This report performs an analysis of two of the most detailed existing long-term scenarios describing possible futures of the energy system. The aim is to clarify the frames in which the future development of the global energy demand, as well as the structure of the energy system can be expected to develop towards the year 2100. (au) 19 refs.

Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence

Science.gov (United States)

Amstrup, Steven C.; Deweaver, E.T.; Douglas, David C.; Marcot, B.G.; Durner, George M.; Bitz, C.M.; Bailey, D.A.

2010-01-01

On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the worlds polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold. Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model, that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case. Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice; instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points. Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models and observations represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout

Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence.

Science.gov (United States)

Amstrup, Steven C; Deweaver, Eric T; Douglas, David C; Marcot, Bruce G; Durner, George M; Bitz, Cecilia M; Bailey, David A

2010-12-16

On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the world's polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold. Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model, that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case. Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice; instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points. Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models and observations represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout

Climate adaptation as mitigation: the case of agricultural investments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lobell, David B; Baldos, Uris Lantz C; Hertel, Thomas W

2013-01-01

Successful adaptation of agriculture to ongoing climate changes would help to maintain productivity growth and thereby reduce pressure to bring new lands into agriculture. In this paper we investigate the potential co-benefits of adaptation in terms of the avoided emissions from land use change. A model of global agricultural trade and land use, called SIMPLE, is utilized to link adaptation investments, yield growth rates, land conversion rates, and land use emissions. A scenario of global adaptation to offset negative yield impacts of temperature and precipitation changes to 2050, which requires a cumulative 225 billion USD of additional investment, results in 61 Mha less conversion of cropland and 15 Gt carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e) fewer emissions by 2050. Thus our estimates imply an annual mitigation co-benefit of 0.35 GtCO 2 e yr −1 while spending $15 per tonne CO 2 e of avoided emissions. Uncertainty analysis is used to estimate a 5–95% confidence interval around these numbers of 0.25–0.43 Gt and $11–$22 per tonne CO 2 e. A scenario of adaptation focused only on Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, while less costly in aggregate, results in much smaller mitigation potentials and higher per tonne costs. These results indicate that although investing in the least developed areas may be most desirable for the main objectives of adaptation, it has little net effect on mitigation because production gains are offset by greater rates of land clearing in the benefited regions, which are relatively low yielding and land abundant. Adaptation investments in high yielding, land scarce regions such as Asia and North America are more effective for mitigation. To identify data needs, we conduct a sensitivity analysis using the Morris method (Morris 1991 Technometrics 33 161–74). The three most critical parameters for improving estimates of mitigation potential are (in descending order) the emissions factors for converting land to agriculture, the price

Climate adaptation as mitigation: the case of agricultural investments

Science.gov (United States)

Lobell, David B.; Baldos, Uris Lantz C.; Hertel, Thomas W.

2013-03-01

Successful adaptation of agriculture to ongoing climate changes would help to maintain productivity growth and thereby reduce pressure to bring new lands into agriculture. In this paper we investigate the potential co-benefits of adaptation in terms of the avoided emissions from land use change. A model of global agricultural trade and land use, called SIMPLE, is utilized to link adaptation investments, yield growth rates, land conversion rates, and land use emissions. A scenario of global adaptation to offset negative yield impacts of temperature and precipitation changes to 2050, which requires a cumulative 225 billion USD of additional investment, results in 61 Mha less conversion of cropland and 15 Gt carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) fewer emissions by 2050. Thus our estimates imply an annual mitigation co-benefit of 0.35 GtCO2e yr-1 while spending 15 per tonne CO2e of avoided emissions. Uncertainty analysis is used to estimate a 5-95% confidence interval around these numbers of 0.25-0.43 Gt and 11-22 per tonne CO2e. A scenario of adaptation focused only on Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, while less costly in aggregate, results in much smaller mitigation potentials and higher per tonne costs. These results indicate that although investing in the least developed areas may be most desirable for the main objectives of adaptation, it has little net effect on mitigation because production gains are offset by greater rates of land clearing in the benefited regions, which are relatively low yielding and land abundant. Adaptation investments in high yielding, land scarce regions such as Asia and North America are more effective for mitigation. To identify data needs, we conduct a sensitivity analysis using the Morris method (Morris 1991 Technometrics 33 161-74). The three most critical parameters for improving estimates of mitigation potential are (in descending order) the emissions factors for converting land to agriculture, the price elasticity of land supply

Scenario-Based Case Study Analysis of Asteroid Mitigation in the Short Response Time Regime

Science.gov (United States)

Seery, B.; Greenaugh, K. C.

2017-12-01

Asteroid impact on Earth is a rare but inevitable occurrence, with potentially cataclysmic consequences. If a pending impact is discovered, mitigation options include civil-defense preparations as well as missions to deflect the asteroid and/or robustly disrupt and disperse it to an extent that only a negligible fraction remains on a threatening path (National Research Council's "Defending the Planet," 2010). If discovered with sufficient warning time, a kinetic impactor can deflect smaller objects, but response delays can rule out the option. If a body is too large to deflect by kinetic impactor, or the time for response is insufficient, deflection or disruption can be achieved with a nuclear device. The use of nuclear ablation is considered within the context of current capabilities, requiring no need for nuclear testing. Existing, well-understood devices are sufficient for the largest known Potentially Hazardous Objects (PHOs). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Goddard Space Flight Center and the Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration are collaborating to determine the critical characterization issues that define the boundaries for the asteroid-deflection options. Drawing from such work, we examine the timeline for a deflection mission, and how to provide the best opportunity for an impactor to suffice by minimizing the response time. This integrated problem considers the physical process of the deflection method (impact or ablation), along with the spacecraft, launch capability, risk analysis, and the available intercept flight trajectories. Our joint DOE/NASA team has conducted case study analysis of three distinctly different PHOs, on a hypothetical earth impacting trajectory. The size of the design reference bodies ranges from 100 - 500 meters in diameter, with varying physical parameters such as composition, spin state, and metallicity, to name a few. We assemble the design reference of the small body in question using

Coal, an unavoidable energy in the 21. century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Botte, J.M.

2010-01-01

With the steam engine generalization, coal has become the emblematic energy source of the 19. century industrial revolution and of the progress of the maritime and rail transports. It should have been disappeared of the world energy during the first half of the 21. century on account of the production of nobler energies (nuclear power, petroleum, natural gas, photovoltaic energy or wind power) and of the requirements of the climatic change. Nevertheless, all around the world, coal backs down and sets up as an unavoidable fuel for the 2030-2050 scenarios. (O.M.)

Afforestation to mitigate climate change: impacts on food prices under consideration of albedo effects

Science.gov (United States)

Kreidenweis, Ulrich; Humpenöder, Florian; Stevanović, Miodrag; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Kriegler, Elmar; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander

2016-08-01

Ambitious climate targets, such as the 2 °C target, are likely to require the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Afforestation is one such mitigation option but could, through the competition for land, also lead to food prices hikes. In addition, afforestation often decreases land-surface albedo and the amount of short-wave radiation reflected back to space, which results in a warming effect. In particular in the boreal zone, such biophysical warming effects following from afforestation are estimated to offset the cooling effect from carbon sequestration. We assessed the food price response of afforestation, and considered the albedo effect with scenarios in which afforestation was restricted to certain latitudinal zones. In our study, afforestation was incentivized by a globally uniform reward for carbon uptake in the terrestrial biosphere. This resulted in large-scale afforestation (2580 Mha globally) and substantial carbon sequestration (860 GtCO2) up to the end of the century. However, it was also associated with an increase in food prices of about 80% by 2050 and a more than fourfold increase by 2100. When afforestation was restricted to the tropics the food price response was substantially reduced, while still almost 60% cumulative carbon sequestration was achieved. In the medium term, the increase in prices was then lower than the increase in income underlying our scenario projections. Moreover, our results indicate that more liberalised trade in agricultural commodities could buffer the food price increases following from afforestation in tropical regions.

Mitigating flood exposure

Science.gov (United States)

Shultz, James M; McLean, Andrew; Herberman Mash, Holly B; Rosen, Alexa; Kelly, Fiona; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M; Youngs Jr, Georgia A; Jensen, Jessica; Bernal, Oscar; Neria, Yuval

2013-01-01

Introduction. In 2011, following heavy winter snowfall, two cities bordering two rivers in North Dakota, USA faced major flood threats. Flooding was foreseeable and predictable although the extent of risk was uncertain. One community, Fargo, situated in a shallow river basin, successfully mitigated and prevented flooding. For the other community, Minot, located in a deep river valley, prevention was not possible and downtown businesses and one-quarter of the homes were inundated, in the city’s worst flood on record. We aimed at contrasting the respective hazards, vulnerabilities, stressors, psychological risk factors, psychosocial consequences, and disaster risk reduction strategies under conditions where flood prevention was, and was not, possible. Methods. We applied the “trauma signature analysis” (TSIG) approach to compare the hazard profiles, identify salient disaster stressors, document the key components of disaster risk reduction response, and examine indicators of community resilience. Results. Two demographically-comparable communities, Fargo and Minot, faced challenging river flood threats and exhibited effective coordination across community sectors. We examined the implementation of disaster risk reduction strategies in situations where coordinated citizen action was able to prevent disaster impact (hazard avoidance) compared to the more common scenario when unpreventable disaster strikes, causing destruction, harm, and distress. Across a range of indicators, it is clear that successful mitigation diminishes both physical and psychological impact, thereby reducing the trauma signature of the event. Conclusion. In contrast to experience of historic flooding in Minot, the city of Fargo succeeded in reducing the trauma signature by way of reducing risk through mitigation. PMID:28228985

Exploring the reversibility of marine climate change impacts in temperature overshoot scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Zickfeld, K.; Li, X.; Tokarska, K.; Kohfeld, K. E.

2017-12-01

Artificial carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere has been proposed as a measure for mitigating climate change and restoring the climate system to a `safe' state after overshoot. Previous studies have demonstrated that the changes in surface air temperature due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions can be reversed through CDR, while some oceanic properties, for example thermosteric sea level rise, show a delay in their response to CDR. This research aims to investigate the reversibility of changes in ocean conditions after implementation of CDR with a focus on ocean biogeochemical properties. To achieve this, we analyze climate model simulations based on two sets of emission scenarios. We first use RCP2.6 and its extension until year 2300 as the reference scenario and design several temperature and cumulative CO2 emissions "overshoot" scenarios based on other RCPs, which represents cases with less ambitious mitigation policies in the near term that temporarily exceed the 2 °C target adopted by the Paris Agreement. In addition, we use a set of emission scenarios with a reference scenario limiting warming to 1.5°C in the long term and two overshoot scenarios. The University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), a climate model of intermediate complexity, is forced with these emission scenarios. We compare the response of select ocean variables (seawater temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen) in the overshoot scenarios to that in the respective reference scenario at the time the same amount of cumulative emissions is achieved. Our results suggest that the overshoot and subsequent return to a reference CO2 cumulative emissions level would leave substantial impacts on the marine environment. Although the changes in global mean sea surface variables (temperature, pH and dissolved oxygen) are largely reversible, global mean ocean temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH differ significantly from those in the reference scenario. Large ocean areas exhibit

The Century-Long Challenge of Global Carbon Management

Science.gov (United States)

Socolow, R.

2002-05-01

The time scale of the global carbon management is a century, not a decade and not a millennium. A century is the ratio of 1000 billion metric tons of carbon [Gt(C)] to 10 Gt(C)/yr. 1000 Gt(C) is the future emissions that will lead to approximately a doubling of the pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 concentration, 280 ppm, assuming the total net ocean plus terrestrial sink remains at half the strength of this source - since 2.1 Gt (C) = 1 ppm, and the concentration today is already 370 ppm. Doubling is the most widely used boundary between acceptable and unacceptable Greenhouse-related environmental disruption, or, in the language of the Framework Convention on Climate Change, the onset of "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." And 10 Gt(C)/yr is a conservative estimate of the average annual fossil-fuel carbon source over the century; it is now between 6 and 7 Gt(C). Conventional oil and gas are not sufficiently abundant to generate a serious Greenhouse problem on their own. Well before their cumulative carbon emissions reach 1000 Gt(C), both are expected to become non-competitive as a result of growing costs of access (costs related to resources being very deep underground, or below very deep water, or very remote, or very small.) But several times 1000 Gt(C) of coal resources will probably be competitive with non-fossil fuel alternatives, as will "unconventional" oil and gas resources, such as tar sands. The world will not be saved from a serious Greenhouse problem by fossil fuel depletion. There are four mitigation strategies for avoiding dangerous interference with the climate system. Fossil fuels can cease to dominate the global energy system well before the end of the century, yielding large market share to some combination of renewable energy and nuclear (fission and fusion) energy sources. Fossil fuels can continue to dominate, but most of the carbon in the century's fossil fuels can be prevented from reaching the atmosphere (fossil

Transition scenarios towards sustained Pu-management in China - 5504

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Evans, C.; Drevon, C.; Favet, D.; Avrin, A.P.; Carlier, B.

2015-01-01

The Chinese nuclear reactor park is growing rapidly with already some 250 GWe projected to be operational by mid-century and with even larger nuclear reactor parks during the second half of this century to match the energy demand in a sustainable way. Such a large and fast growing nuclear reactor park goes with anticipated challenges with regard to the fuel cycle with essentially a focus on the rapidly growing inventory of used nuclear fuel. China is considering various options towards a more sustainable nuclear energy park with the recycling of fissile materials in various types of reactors being the backbone towards such sustainable nuclear future. This paper briefs on an analysis of the transition towards a continued responsible and flexible management of plutonium and uranium in this Chinese nuclear reactor park highlighting the results of nuclear energy systems scenario technical-economic analysis for LWR-MOX and LWR-SFR scenarios. Preliminary analysis show that the 2 described options lead to a sustainable closed cycle system while implementing early a responsible management of fast growing generated used fuel inventory

Evaluation of additional biogeochemical impacts on mitigation pathways in an energy sytem integrated assessment model.

Science.gov (United States)

Dessens, O.

2017-12-01

Within the last IPCC AR5 a large and systematic sensitivity study around available technologies and timing of policies applied in IAMs to achieve the 2°C target has been conducted. However the simple climate representations included in IAMs are generally tuned to the results of ensemble means. This may result in hiding within the ensemble mean results possible challenging mitigation pathways for the economy or the technology future scenarios. This work provides new insights on the sensitivity of the socio-economic response to different climate factors under a 2°C climate change target in order to help guide future efforts to reduce uncertainty in the climate mitigation decisions. The main objective is to understand and bring new insights on how future global warming will affect the natural biochemical feedbacks on the climate system and what could be the consequences of these feedbacks on the anthropogenic emission pathways with a specific focus on the energy-economy system. It specifically focuses on three issues of the climate representation affecting the energy system transformation and GHG emissions pathways: 1- Impacts of the climate sensitivity (or TCR); 2- Impacts of warming on the radiative forcing (cloudiness,...); 3- Impacts of warming on the carbon cycle (carbon cycle feedback). We use the integrated assessment model TIAM-UCL to examine the mitigation pathways compatible with the 2C target depending on assumptions regarding the 3 issues of the climate representation introduced above. The following key conclusions drawn from this study are that mitigation to 2°C is still possible under strong climate sensitivity (TCR), strong carbon cycle amplification or positive radiative forcing feedback. However, this level of climate mitigation will require a significant transformation in the way we produce and consume energy. Carbon capture and sequestration on electricity generation, industry and biomass is part of the technology pool needed to achieve this

Mitigation scenario analysis: modelling the impacts of changes in agricultural management practices on surface water quality at the catchment scale

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Sam; He, Yi; Hiscock, Kevin

2014-05-01

) within the program SWAT-CUP (SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Programs). Model performance is assessed against a variety of statistical measures including the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) and percentage bias (PBIAS). Various mitigation scenarios are modelled within the catchment, including changes in fertiliser application rates and timing and the introduction of different tillage techniques and cover-crop regimes. The effects of the applied measures on water quality are examined and recommendations made on which measures have the greatest potential to be applied within the catchment to improve water quality. This study reports the findings of that analysis and presents techniques by which diffuse agricultural pollution can be reduced within catchments through the implementation of multiple on-farm measures. The methodology presented has the potential to be applied within other catchments, allowing tailored mitigation strategies to be developed. Ultimately, this research provides 'tested' mitigation options that can be applied within the Wensum and similar catchments to improve water quality and to ensure that certain obligatory water quality standards are achieved.

Climate variability of heat wave and projection of warming scenario in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, C. Y.; Chien, Y. Y.; Su, C. J.

2017-12-01

This study examined the climate variability of heat wave (HW) according to air temperature and relative humidity to determine trends of variation and stress threshold in three major cities of Taiwan, Taipei (TP), Taichung (TC) and Kaohsiung (KH), during in the past four decades (1971-2010). According to data available, the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) heat stress for the three studied cities was also calculated for the past (2003-2012) and simulated under the projected warming scenario for the end of this century (2075-2099) using ECHAM5/MPIOM-WRF (ECW) dynamic downscaling 5-km resolution Analysis showed that past decade (2001-2010) saw increase not only in number of HW days in all three cities but also the duration of each HW event in TP and KH. Simulation results revealed that ECW captures well the characteristics of data distribution in these three cities during 2003-2012. Under the A1B projection, ECW yielded higher WBGT in all three cities for 2075-2099. The WBGT in TP indicated that the heat stress for 50% of the days in July and August by 2075-2099 will be at danger level (WBGT ³ 31 °C). Even the median WBGT in TC and KH (30.91°C and 30.88°C, respectively), are close to 31°C. Hence, the heat stress in all three cities will either exceed or approach the danger level by the end of this century. Such projection under the global warming trend would necessitate adaptation and mitigation, and the huge impact of dangerous heat stress on public health merits urgent attention for Taiwan.

Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Palazzo, Amanda; Vervoort, Joost M.; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Rutting, Lucas; Havlík, Petr; Islam, Shahnila; Bayala, Jules; Valin, Hugo; Kadi Kadi, Hamé Abdou; Thornton, Philip; Zougmore, Robert

2017-01-01

The climate change research community’s shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national

Scenario for large-scale implementation of CCS in Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wildenborg, T.; Coussy, P.; Doukelis, A.; Ekström, C.; Georgiou, G.; Gkountanis, S.; Kramers, L.; Kuip, M. van der; Lindeberg, E.; Nordbø, Ø.; Serbutoviez, S.; Simonsson, D.

2009-01-01

In the CASTOR project funded by the EU and industry the emission reduction target for CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS) was set at 30% of the CO2 emissions from power plants in Europe, which is to be achieved during the first half of this century. The developed scenario shows that this target can be

Cover crops mitigate direct greenhouse gases balance but reduce drainage under climate change scenarios in temperate climate with dry summers.

Science.gov (United States)

Tribouillois, Hélène; Constantin, Julie; Justes, Eric

2018-02-14

Cover crops provide ecosystem services such as storing atmospheric carbon in soils after incorporation of their residues. Cover crops also influence soil water balance, which can be an issue in temperate climates with dry summers as for example in southern France and Europe. As a consequence, it is necessary to understand cover crops' long-term influence on greenhouse gases (GHG) and water balances to assess their potential to mitigate climate change in arable cropping systems. We used the previously calibrated and validated soil-crop model STICS to simulate scenarios of cover crop introduction to assess their influence on rainfed and irrigated cropping systems and crop rotations distributed among five contrasted sites in southern France from 2007 to 2052. Our results showed that cover crops can improve mean direct GHG balance by 315 kg CO 2 e ha -1  year -1 in the long term compared to that of bare soil. This was due mainly to an increase in carbon storage in the soil despite a slight increase in N 2 O emissions which can be compensated by adapting fertilization. Cover crops also influence the water balance by reducing mean annual drainage by 20 mm/year but increasing mean annual evapotranspiration by 20 mm/year compared to those of bare soil. Using cover crops to improve the GHG balance may help to mitigate climate change by decreasing CO 2 e emitted in cropping systems which can represent a decrease from 4.5% to 9% of annual GHG emissions of the French agriculture and forestry sector. However, if not well managed, they also could create water management issues in watersheds with shallow groundwater. Relationships between cover crop biomass and its influence on several variables such as drainage, carbon sequestration, and GHG emissions could be used to extend our results to other conditions to assess the cover crops' influence in a wider range of areas. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Greenhouse gas emissions from Thailand’s transport sector: Trends and mitigation options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pongthanaisawan, Jakapong; Sorapipatana, Chumnong

2013-01-01

Rapid growth of population and economy during the past two decades has resulted in continuing growth of transport’s oil demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The objectives of this study are to examine pattern and growth in energy demand as well as related GHG emissions from the transport sector and to analyze potential pathways of energy demand and GHG emissions reduction from this sector of the measures being set by the Thai Government. A set of econometric models has been developed to estimate the historical trend of energy demand and GHG emissions in the transport sector during 1989–2007 and to forecast future trends to 2030. Two mitigation option scenarios of fuel switching and energy efficiency options have been designed to analyze pathways of energy consumption and GHG emissions reduction potential in Thailand’s transport sector compared with the baseline business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which assumed to do nothing influences the long-term trends of transport energy demand. It has been found that these two mitigation options can reduce the GHG emissions differently. The fuel-switching option could significantly reduce the amount of GHG emissions in a relatively short time frame, albeit it will be limited by its supply resources, whereas the energy efficiency option is more effective for GHG emissions mitigation in the long term. Therefore, both measures should be implemented simultaneously for both short and long term mitigation effects in order to more effectively achieve GHG emissions reduction target.

Mitigating climate change: Decomposing the relative roles of energy conservation, technological change, and structural shift

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mishra, Gouri Shankar; Zakerinia, Saleh; Yeh, Sonia; Teter, Jacob; Morrison, Geoff

2014-01-01

We decompose the contribution of five drivers of energy use and CO 2 emissions reductions in achieving climate change goals over 2005–2100 for various climate policy scenarios. This study contributes to the decomposition literature in three ways. First, it disaggregates drivers of energy demand into technological progress and demand for energy services, represented in terms of useful energy, allowing us to estimate their contributions independently — an improvement over other economy-wide decomposition studies. Secondly, this approach reduces the ambiguity present in many previous measures of structural change. We delineate structural shifts into two separate measures: changes in fuel mix within a given resource or service pathway; and changes in mix among distinct energy resources or end-use services. Finally, this study applies decomposition methods to energy and emission trajectories from two mutually informing perspectives: (i) primary energy resources — crude oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, and renewables; and (ii) end-uses of energy services — residential and commercial buildings, industry, and transportation. Our results show that technological improvements and energy conservation are important in meeting climate goals in the first half of the coming century; and that nuclear and renewable energy and CCS technology are crucial in meeting more stringent goals in the second half of the century. We examine the relative roles of the drivers in reducing CO 2 emissions separately for developed and developing regions. Although the majority of energy and emission growth – and by extension the greatest opportunities for mitigation – will occur in developing countries, the decomposition shows that the relative roles of the five drivers are broadly consistent between these two regions. - Highlights: • We decompose the contribution of five drivers of energy use and CO2 emissions reductions in achieving climate change goals • We analyze differences

Robust Performance of Marginal Pacific Coral Reef Habitats in Future Climate Scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Freeman, Lauren A

2015-01-01

Coral reef ecosystems are under dual threat from climate change. Increasing sea surface temperatures and thermal stress create environmental limits at low latitudes, and decreasing aragonite saturation state creates environmental limits at high latitudes. This study examines the response of unique coral reef habitats to climate change in the remote Pacific, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1 alongside the species distribution algorithm Maxent. Narrow ranges of physico-chemical variables are used to define unique coral habitats and their performance is tested in future climate scenarios. General loss of coral reef habitat is expected in future climate scenarios and has been shown in previous studies. This study found exactly that for most of the predominant physico-chemical environments. However, certain coral reef habitats considered marginal today at high latitude, along the equator and in the eastern tropical Pacific were found to be quite robust in climate change scenarios. Furthermore, an environmental coral reef refuge previously identified in the central south Pacific near French Polynesia was further reinforced. Studying the response of specific habitats showed that the prevailing conditions of this refuge during the 20th century shift to a new set of conditions, more characteristic of higher latitude coral reefs in the 20th century, in future climate scenarios projected to 2100.

Robust Performance of Marginal Pacific Coral Reef Habitats in Future Climate Scenarios.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lauren A Freeman

Full Text Available Coral reef ecosystems are under dual threat from climate change. Increasing sea surface temperatures and thermal stress create environmental limits at low latitudes, and decreasing aragonite saturation state creates environmental limits at high latitudes. This study examines the response of unique coral reef habitats to climate change in the remote Pacific, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1 alongside the species distribution algorithm Maxent. Narrow ranges of physico-chemical variables are used to define unique coral habitats and their performance is tested in future climate scenarios. General loss of coral reef habitat is expected in future climate scenarios and has been shown in previous studies. This study found exactly that for most of the predominant physico-chemical environments. However, certain coral reef habitats considered marginal today at high latitude, along the equator and in the eastern tropical Pacific were found to be quite robust in climate change scenarios. Furthermore, an environmental coral reef refuge previously identified in the central south Pacific near French Polynesia was further reinforced. Studying the response of specific habitats showed that the prevailing conditions of this refuge during the 20th century shift to a new set of conditions, more characteristic of higher latitude coral reefs in the 20th century, in future climate scenarios projected to 2100.

New Lens Scenarios. A Shift in Perspective for a World in Transition

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-02-15

With the world's population headed toward 9 billion at mid-century and millions of people climbing out of poverty, global energy demand could increase by as much as 80% by 2050. That's according to Shell's latest scenarios, which look at trends in the economy, politics and energy in considering developments over the next half a century. The first scenario (Mountains) sees a strong role for government and the introduction of firm and far-reaching policy measures. These help to develop more compact cities and transform the global transport network. New policies unlock plentiful natural gas resources - making it the largest global energy source by the 2030s - and accelerate carbon capture and storage technology, supporting a cleaner energy system. The second scenario (Oceans) describes a more prosperous and volatile world. Energy demand surges, due to strong economic growth. Power is more widely distributed and governments take longer to agree major decisions. Market forces rather than policies shape the energy system: oil and coal remain part of the energy mix but renewable energy also grows. By the 2070s solar becomes the world's largest energy source.

New Lens Scenarios. A Shift in Perspective for a World in Transition

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-02-15

With the world's population headed toward 9 billion at mid-century and millions of people climbing out of poverty, global energy demand could increase by as much as 80% by 2050. That's according to Shell's latest scenarios, which look at trends in the economy, politics and energy in considering developments over the next half a century. The first scenario (Mountains) sees a strong role for government and the introduction of firm and far-reaching policy measures. These help to develop more compact cities and transform the global transport network. New policies unlock plentiful natural gas resources - making it the largest global energy source by the 2030s - and accelerate carbon capture and storage technology, supporting a cleaner energy system. The second scenario (Oceans) describes a more prosperous and volatile world. Energy demand surges, due to strong economic growth. Power is more widely distributed and governments take longer to agree major decisions. Market forces rather than policies shape the energy system: oil and coal remain part of the energy mix but renewable energy also grows. By the 2070s solar becomes the world's largest energy source.

Evaluating the effectiveness of urban energy conservation and GHG mitigation measures: The case of Xiamen city, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin Jianyi; Cao Bin; Cui Shenghui; Wang Wei; Bai Xuemei

2010-01-01

To assess the effectiveness of urban energy conservation and GHG mitigation measures, a detailed Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model is developed and applied to analyze the future trends of energy demand and GHG emissions in Xiamen city. Two scenarios have been designed to describe the future energy strategies in relation to the development of Xiamen city. The 'Business as Usual' scenario assumes that the government will do nothing to influence the long-term trends of urban energy demand. An 'Integrated' scenario, on the other hand, is generated to assess the cumulative impact of a series of available reduction measures: clean energy substitution, industrial energy conservation, combined heat and power generation, energy conservation in building, motor vehicle control, and new and renewable energy development and utilization. The reduction potentials in energy consumption and GHG emissions are estimated for a time span of 2007-2020 under these different scenarios. The calculation results in Xiamen show that the clean energy substitution measure is the most effective in terms of energy saving and GHG emissions mitigation, while the industrial sector has the largest abatement potential.

Under What Circumstances Do Wood Products from Native Forests Benefit Climate Change Mitigation?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Heather Keith

Full Text Available Climate change mitigation benefits from the land sector are not being fully realised because of uncertainty and controversy about the role of native forest management. The dominant policy view, as stated in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, is that sustainable forest harvesting yielding wood products, generates the largest mitigation benefit. We demonstrate that changing native forest management from commercial harvesting to conservation can make an important contribution to mitigation. Conservation of native forests results in an immediate and substantial reduction in net emissions relative to a reference case of commercial harvesting. We calibrated models to simulate scenarios of native forest management for two Australian case studies: mixed-eucalypt in New South Wales and Mountain Ash in Victoria. Carbon stocks in the harvested forest included forest biomass, wood and paper products, waste in landfill, and bioenergy that substituted for fossil fuel energy. The conservation forest included forest biomass, and subtracted stocks for the foregone products that were substituted by non-wood products or plantation products. Total carbon stocks were lower in harvested forest than in conservation forest in both case studies over the 100-year simulation period. We tested a range of potential parameter values reported in the literature: none could increase the combined carbon stock in products, slash, landfill and substitution sufficiently to exceed the increase in carbon stock due to changing management of native forest to conservation. The key parameters determining carbon stock change under different forest management scenarios are those affecting accumulation of carbon in forest biomass, rather than parameters affecting transfers among wood products. This analysis helps prioritise mitigation activities to focus on maximising forest biomass. International forest-related policies, including negotiations under the UNFCCC, have failed to recognize

Impacts on Canadian Competitiveness of International Climate Change Mitigation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher Holling

1998-06-01

Full Text Available This article summarizes and provides additional perspective on a study that contributes to the growing body of analyses of the costs of limiting greenhouse gas emissions. The study estimates the economic costs to Canada of six planning scenarios. Four of these scenarios involve the use of tradable emission permits and two involved a carbon tax. In each case, the mechanism's target is to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at some percentage of 1990 levels (100% or 90% by either 2010 or 2015. Policies that impose greater constraints on carbon dioxide emissions lead to higher economic costs in terms of foregone output. These costs, however, vary for the same objective, depending on the mechanism chosen and the economic assumptions made. In one typical scenario, in which tradable emission permits are used to achieve stabilization at 1990 levels by 2010, GDP is depressed from the "business-as-usual" scenario by about 2% for the first decade, after which it recovers to business-as-usual levels. Generally, for all scenarios, the economic impact of climate change mitigation imposes a transition cost on the economy, but the long-term productive capacity of the economy is not significantly affected.

Impacts of low-carbon power policy on carbon mitigation in Guangdong Province, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheng, Beibei; Dai, Hancheng; Wang, Peng; Xie, Yang; Chen, Li; Zhao, Daiqing; Masui, Toshihiko

2016-01-01

This paper analyzes the impacts of the low-carbon policy in the power sector of Guangdong Province in China on its energy and carbon emission targets by 2020, as well as their costs and co-benefits, using a regional CGE model with seven scenarios: business as usual (BaU), renewable energy (RE), renewable energy and natural gas (RE–NG), CAP only (CAP), CAP and RE–NG (CAP–RE–NG), carbon emission trading (ETS), and ETS with RE–NG (ETS–RE–NG). Analysis results reveal that provincial energy and carbon intensity targets can be achieved in the assumed carbon mitigation scenarios with carbon cap, ETS, and clean energy development policies. While the carbon constraint exerts negative impacts on the economy, GDP loss could be lowered by the ETS and RE policies. The RE scenario is more economically efficient than the ETS scenario, and coupling the RE and ETS scenarios appears to be the most economically efficient scenario to achieve the desired carbon and energy intensity targets. One of the benefits of the low-carbon policy is its improvement of the energy security of Guangdong in terms of reduced reliance on external coal and oil; in particular, Guangdong coal consumption could peak in 2017–2019. - Highlights: • This study analyzes the low carbon policy in the power sector in Guangdong of China. • The role of power sector in achieving carbon and energy intensity target is shown. • Renewable energy and natural gas are very important for Guangdong Province. • Additional efforts in other sectors are needed to achieve the intensity targets. • The mitigation cost and economic impacts are assessed under various policy settings.

Integrated energy planning: Strategies to mitigate climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ortiz, Johnny N; Sheffield, John W [University of Missouri-Rolla (United States)

1997-07-01

The framework convention on climate change, signed by more than 150 governments worldwide in June 1992, calls on parties to the convention undertaken inventories of national sources and sinks of greenhouse gases and to develop plans for responding to climate change. The energy sector is comprised of the major energy demand sectors (industry, residential and commercial, transport and agriculture), and the energy supply sector, which consists of resource extraction, conversion, and delivery of energy products. Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions occur at various points in the sector, from resource extraction to end use application, and accordingly, options for mitigation exist at various points. In most countries, will be a major focus of GHG mitigation analysis. The primary focus of this paper is on the identification of strategies that can mitigate climate changes on the basis of integrated energy planing analysis. The overall approach follows a methodology developed by the U.S. Country Studies Program under the framework of the Convention's commitments. It involves the development of scenarios based on energy uses and evaluation of specific technologies that can satisfy demands for energy services. One can compare technologies based on their relative cost to achieve a unit of GHG reduction and other features of interest. This approach gives equal weight to both energy supply and energy demand options. A variety of screening criteria including indicators of cost-effectiveness as well as non-economic analysis concerns, can be used to identify and assess promising options, which can then be combined to create one or more scenarios. Mitigation scenarios are evaluated against the backdrop of a baseline scenario, which simulates assumed to take place in the absence of mitigation efforts. Mitigation scenarios can be designed to meet specific emission reduction targets or to simulate the effect of specific policy inventions. The paper ends with an application using a

Cost of preventing workplace heat-related illness through worker breaks and the benefit of climate-change mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Takakura, Jun'ya; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Honda, Yasushi; Masui, Toshihiko

2017-06-01

The exposure of workers to hot environments is expected to increase as a result of climate change. In order to prevent heat-related illness, it is recommended that workers take breaks during working hours. However, this would lead to reductions in worktime and labor productivity. In this study, we estimate the economic cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks associated with climate change under a wide range of climatic and socioeconomic conditions. We calculate the worktime reduction based on the recommendation of work/rest ratio and the estimated future wet bulb glove temperature, which is an index of heat stresses. Corresponding GDP losses (cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks) are estimated using a computable general equilibrium model throughout this century. Under the highest emission scenario, GDP losses in 2100 will range from 2.6 to 4.0% compared to the current climate conditions. On the other hand, GDP losses will be less than 0.5% if the 2.0 °C goal is achieved. The benefit of climate-change mitigation for avoiding worktime loss is comparable to the cost of mitigation (cost of the greenhouse gas emission reduction) under the 2.0 °C goal. The relationship between the cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks and global average temperature rise is approximately linear, and the difference in economic loss between the 1.5 °C goal and the 2.0 °C goal is expected to be approximately 0.3% of global GDP in 2100. Although climate mitigation and socioeconomic development can limit the vulnerable regions and sectors, particularly in developing countries, outdoor work is still expected to be affected. The effectiveness of some adaptation measures such as additional installation of air conditioning devices or shifting the time of day for working are also suggested. In order to reduce the economic impacts, adaptation measures should also be implemented as well as pursing ambitious climate change

Peaking of world oil production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hirsch, R.L. (SAIC); Bezdek, Roger (MISI); Wendling, Robert (MISI)

2005-02-01

The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.... The purpose of this analysis was to identify the critical issues surrounding the occurrence and mitigation of world oil production peaking. We simplified many of the complexities in an effort to provide a transparent analysis. Nevertheless, our study is neither simple nor brief. We recognize that when oil prices escalate dramatically, there will be demand and economic impacts that will alter our simplified assumptions. Consideration of those feedbacks will be a daunting task but one that should be undertaken. Our aim in this study is to-- • Summarize the difficulties of oil production forecasting; • Identify the fundamentals that show why world oil production peaking is such a unique challenge; • Show why mitigation will take a decade or more of intense effort; • Examine the potential economic effects of oil peaking; • Describe what might be accomplished under three example mitigation scenarios. • Stimulate serious discussion of the problem, suggest more definitive studies, and engender interest in timely action to mitigate its impacts.

The Effect of Urban Green Infrastructure on Disaster Mitigation in Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

So Yoon Kim

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Increasing precipitation by climate change and the growing number of impervious areas present greater risk of disaster damage in urban areas. Urban green infrastructure can be an effective mitigation alternative in highly developed and concentrated area. This study investigates the effect of various types of urban green infrastructure on mitigating disaster damage in Korea. Tobit model is used to analyze the factors that determine disaster damage. Damage variation is predicted with scenarios of RCP 8.5 and urban green spaces. Seventy-four districts and counties in seven metropolitan areas are defined as the unit and the period from 2005 to 2013 is considered in the analysis. The results indicate that higher urban green ratio, sewer length, financial independence rate, and local government’s budget are relating to lower disaster damage. Based on a precipitation level of RCP 8.5 scenario in 2050, an increase in economic damage is expected to range from 262 to 1086%. However, with an increase in urban green ratio by 10%, increased economic damage is only expected to range from 217 to 1013%. The results suggest that green spaces play important role to mitigate precipitation related disasters. Highly concentrated urban areas need to consider various types of urban green infrastructure to prepare for an increase in precipitation due to climate change.

Modelling the impacts of challenging 2050 European climate mitigation targets on Ireland’s energy system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiodi, Alessandro; Gargiulo, Maurizio; Rogan, Fionn; Deane, J.P.; Lavigne, Denis; Rout, Ullash K.; Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.

2013-01-01

The Copenhagen Accord established political consensus on the 2 °C limit (in global temperature increase) and for deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions levels to achieve this goal. The European Union has set ambitious GHG targets for the year 2050 (80–95% below 1990 levels), with each Member State developing strategies to contribute to these targets. This paper focuses on mitigation targets for one Member State, Ireland, an interesting case study due to the growth in GHG emissions (24% increase between 1990 and 2005) and the high share of emissions from agriculture (30% of total GHG emissions). We use the Irish TIMES energy systems modelling tool to build a number of scenarios delivering an 80% emissions reduction target by 2050, including accounting for the limited options for agriculture GHG abatement by increasing the emissions reduction target for the energy system. We then compare the scenario results in terms of changes in energy technology, the role of energy efficiency and renewable energy. We also quantify the economic impacts of the mitigation scenarios in terms of marginal CO 2 abatement costs and energy system costs. The paper also sheds light on the impacts of short term targets and policies on long term mitigation pathways. - Highlights: ► We developed a techno-economic energy model of Ireland to the year 2050. ► Reductions between 80% and 95% of GHG emissions can be technically achieved. ► A 50% emissions cut in agriculture requires a 95% reductions from the energy system. ► Extending current policies implies greater electrification and efficiency measures. ► The additional cost to achieve mitigation remain less than 2% of GDP levels in 2050.

Multicell Cooperation for LTE-Advanced Heterogeneous Network Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Soret, Beatriz; Wang, Hua; Rosa, Claudio

2013-01-01

In this article we present two promising practical use cases for simple multicell cooperation for LTE-Advanced heterogeneous network (HetNet) scenarios with macro and small cells. For co-channel deployment cases, we recommend the use of enhanced inter-cell interference coordination (e......ICIC) to mitigate cross-tier interference and ensure sufficient offload of users from macro to small cells. It is shown how the eICIC benefit is maximized by using a distributed inter-base station control framework for dynamic adjustment of essential parameters. Secondly, for scenarios where macro and small cells...... are deployed at different carriers an efficient use of the fragmented spectrum can be achieved by using collaborative inter-site carrier aggregation. In addition to distributed coordination/collaboration between base station nodes, the importance of explicit terminal assistance is highlighted. Comprehensive...

Evaluating Uncertainty in GHG Emission Scenarios: Mapping IAM Outlooks With an Energy System Phase Space

Science.gov (United States)

Ritchie, W. J.; Dowlatabadi, H.

2017-12-01

Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing (RF). Pathways for long-run fossil energy use that map to total forcing outcomes are commonly depicted with integrated assessment models (IAMs). IAMs structure outlooks for 21st-century emissions with various theories for developments in demographics, economics, land-use, energy markets and energy service demands. These concepts are applied to understand global changes in two key factors relevant for scenarios of carbon emissions: total energy use (E) this century and the carbon intensity of that energy (F/E). A simple analytical and graphical approach can also illustrate the full range of outcomes for these variables to determine if IAMs provide sufficient coverage of the uncertainty space for future energy use. In this talk, we present a method for understanding uncertainties relevant to RF scenario components in a phase space. The phase space of a dynamic system represents significant factors as axes to capture the full range of physically possible states. A two-dimensional phase space of E and F/E presents the possible system states that can lead to various levels of total 21st-century carbon emissions. Once defined in this way, a phase space of these energy system coordinates allows for rapid characterization of large IAM scenario sets with machine learning techniques. This phase space method is applied to the levels of RF described by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The resulting RCP phase space identifies characteristics of the baseline energy system outlooks provided by IAMs for IPCC Working Group III. We conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the major features of IAM scenarios for each RCP range. Cluster analysis finds the IAM scenarios in AR5 illustrate RCPs with consistent combinations of energy resources. This suggests IAM scenarios understate uncertainty ranges for future

Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America.

Science.gov (United States)

Boit, Alice; Sakschewski, Boris; Boysen, Lena; Cano-Crespo, Ana; Clement, Jan; Garcia-Alaniz, Nashieli; Kok, Kasper; Kolb, Melanie; Langerwisch, Fanny; Rammig, Anja; Sachse, René; van Eupen, Michiel; von Bloh, Werner; Clara Zemp, Delphine; Thonicke, Kirsten

2016-11-01

Climate change and land-use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental-scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio-economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5-6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land-use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land-use expansion is halted by the mid-century. We suggest that constraining land-use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate-change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio-economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global Energy Scenarios to 2040. Understanding our energy future - 2016 Edition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-01-01

The energy world is in rapid evolution, driven in particular by policy developments (like the INDCs agreed at COP-21) but also economic, geopolitical, technological as well as social considerations. Enerdata regularly produces scenario based energy outlooks to analyze and forecast the supply and demand of energy commodities, energy prices, as well as the impact of climate change and energy policies on energy markets and their consequences for the energy industry. After the COP-21 in Paris, Enerdata has again done such an exercise. The Ener-Blue scenario provides an outlook of energy systems up to 2040 based on the achievement of the 2030 targets defined in the INDCs as announced at the COP-21. Ener-Green explores the implications of more stringent energy and climate policies to limit the global temperature increase at around 1.5-2 deg. C by the end of the century. Finally, Ener-Brown describes a world with abundant fossil fuel resource and durably low energy prices, affecting the entire energy system over a long period. These different scenarios explore the consequences on energy supply and demand, energy mix, energy prices by fuel and region, as well as the implications on climate issues. In the Ener-Blue scenario, the future energy mix remains dominated by fossil fuels, but INDCs planned policies regarding climate mitigation, energy efficiency and renewable energy sources lead to a diversification towards other sources of energy. Among others, the EU successfully achieves its triple objective of its climate and energy package, while China and India expand their renewable capacities to achieve their renewable targets. Within this international context of climate coordinated policies, CO_2 emission growth slows down. However, the efforts defined in INDCs are not ambitious enough to limit the increase of the average global temperature to 2 deg. C in 2050, but these efforts are compatible with 3-4 deg. C objective. In the Ener-Green scenario, there is a clear

Energy strategy and mitigation potential in energy sector of the Russian federation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yakovlev, A.F.; Petrov, V.N.; Chupyatov, V.P.

1996-12-31

This paper describes the mitigation potential in the Russian energy sector and presents CO{sub 2} - emission scenarios. Based on the Russian energy strategy, energy conservation potential has been estimated and three groups of energy conservation measures have been pointed out. Taking into account the economic development scenarios and the scenarios of energy consumption and energy conservation, future CO{sub 2} emission scenarios for 2000 and 2010 have been prepared. Some important characteristics of these scenarios have been presented and discussed. For the period 2000-2010 annual growth rates for CO{sub 2} emission in the Russian energy sector will not exceed 0.9-1.3 %, and emission levels in 2000 make up - 75-78 %, and in 2010 - 81-88 % of the 1990 level. For the probable scenario the CO{sub 2} emission reducing will make up about 6% and 25% (for the optimistic scenario about 16% and 31%) of CO{sub 2} emission for reference scenario in 2000 and 2010 respectively. Additional CO{sub 2} emission reducing (3-5% of domestic CO{sub 2} emission) will result from increasing share of natural gas consumption.

Regional air quality management aspects of climate change: impact of climate mitigation options on regional air emissions.

Science.gov (United States)

Rudokas, Jason; Miller, Paul J; Trail, Marcus A; Russell, Armistead G

2015-04-21

We investigate the projected impact of six climate mitigation scenarios on U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOX) associated with energy use in major sectors of the U.S. economy (commercial, residential, industrial, electricity generation, and transportation). We use the EPA U.S. 9-region national database with the MARKet Allocation energy system model to project emissions changes over the 2005 to 2050 time frame. The modeled scenarios are two carbon tax, two low carbon transportation, and two biomass fuel choice scenarios. In the lower carbon tax and both biomass fuel choice scenarios, SO2 and NOX achieve reductions largely through pre-existing rules and policies, with only relatively modest additional changes occurring from the climate mitigation measures. The higher carbon tax scenario projects greater declines in CO2 and SO2 relative to the 2050 reference case, but electricity sector NOX increases. This is a result of reduced investments in power plant NOX controls in earlier years in anticipation of accelerated coal power plant retirements, energy penalties associated with carbon capture systems, and shifting of NOX emissions in later years from power plants subject to a regional NOX cap to those in regions not subject to the cap.

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

worked to bring the experience generated from over four decades of scenario development in other issue domains, including energy and security, to bear on environmental scenarios, and to bring into dialogue scenario practitioners, both producers and users, with social science scholars. The set of contributions to this focus issue of Environmental Research Letters arose out of this workshop and collectively examines key challenges facing the scenario community, synthesizes lessons, and offers recommendations for new research and practice in this field. One theme that emerged in many of the discussions at the workshop revolved around the distinction between two broad perspectives on the goals of scenario exercises: scenarios as products and scenarios as processes. Most global environmental change scenario exercises are product-oriented; the content of the scenarios developed is the main goal of many participants and those who commission or organize the scenario development process. Typically, what is of most interest are the environmental outcomes produced, how they relate to the various factors driving them, and what the results tell us about the prospects for future environmental change, for impacts, and for mitigation. A product-oriented perspective assumes that once produced, scenario products have lives of their own, divorced from the processes that generated them and able to serve multiple, often unspecified purposes. Thus, it is often assumed that the scenario products can be 'taken up' by a variety of users in a variety of fora. A contrasting scenario approach is process-oriented and self-consciously privileges the process of scenario development as the primary goal, for example as a means to motivate organizational learning, find commonalities across different perspectives, achieve consensus on goals, or come to a shared understanding of challenges. Focusing on scenarios as processes highlights the social contexts in which scenarios are created and used. Process

The emergence of climate change mitigation action by society : An agent-based scenario discovery study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Greeven, Sebastiaan; Kraan, O.D.E.; Chappin, E.J.L.; Kwakkel, J.H.

2016-01-01

Developing model-based narratives of society’s response to climate change is challenged by two factors. First, society’s response to possible future climate change is subject to many uncertainties. Second, we argue that society’s mitigation action emerge out of the actions and interactions of the

Analysing the climatic extremes of future projections for the MedCORDEX domain using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Bartholy, Judit; Pongracz, Rita; Pieczka, Ildiko; Szabone Andre, Karolina

2017-04-01

In this study HadGEM2 global climate model outputs were downscaled with RegCM4.3 for the entire MED-44 CORDEX area for the period 1950-2099 using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario. The 50-km resolution RegCM-outputs served as input for further downscaling using 10 km as a horizontal resolution for a smaller domain covering Central Europe with special focus on the Carpathian Region. RCP4.5 is a stabilization scenario while RCP8.5 is a rising radiative forcing pathway, therefore, the difference in the simulation outputs helps to quantify the inertia of the climate system, the importance of anthropogenic influence on climate, and shows the evidence for the need of mitigation and adaptation measures. Evidently, higher temperature change corresponds to RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5. The difference of global and/or regional warming between the two scenario can reach (or even exceed) 2 °C from the second part of the century. Differences in precipitation projections are less straightforward to explain as no direct link exists with warming and radiative forcing, however, the annual distribution of precipitation is projected to change, which may lead to important consequences on society. Our analysis compares the estimated temperature and precipitation changes with special focus on extreme climatic conditions for the following 10 subregions of the MED-44 CORDEX area: Iberian Peninsula, Apennine Peninsula, Balkan Region, Asia Minor, East European Plain, Middle European Plain, Carpathian Basin, Carpathian Mountains, Alps, Western Europe.

Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jones, Andrew D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Calvin, Katherine V. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Collins, William D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Edmonds, James A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2015-08-01

We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model. We find that conversion of 1 km² of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 and –0.71 nW/m² of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic within each of 151 regions we consider globally. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC, we find LULCC forcing ranging from –0.06 to –0.29 W/m² by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops. Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 1.5 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 4.5 Wm^–2, corresponding to a 12–67 % change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario. Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedo-induced warming through additional emissions reductions, and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedo-induced cooling. In all scenarios considered, inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globally.

DISEASES IN MAZATLAN DURING THE XIX CENTURY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pedro Cázares-Aboytes

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The present work analyzes sanitary conditions in the city- port of Mazatlan during the 19th century, as well as the main illnesses or illnesses that afflicted the resident and floating population of the Sinaloa population nucleus, such as cholera and yellow fever, decimated the population at different times, being national and international news, for the importance of Mazatlan. Aspects such as doctors and healers, natural remedies and pharmaceuticals used to mitigate daily and extraordinary suffering, are included in the analysis of the work.

Scenario Analysis on Climate Change Impacts of Urban Land Expansion under Different Urbanization Patterns: A Case Study of Wuhan Metropolitan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xinli Ke

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Urban land expansion plays an important role in climate change. It is significant to select a reasonable urban expansion pattern to mitigate the impact of urban land expansion on the regional climate in the rapid urbanization process. In this paper, taking Wuhan metropolitan as the case study area, and three urbanization patterns scenarios are designed to simulate spatial patterns of urban land expansion in the future using the Partitioned and Asynchronous Cellular Automata Model. Then, simulation results of land use are adjusted and inputted into WRF (Weather Research and Forecast model to simulate regional climate change. The results show that: (1 warming effect is strongest under centralized urbanization while it is on the opposite under decentralized scenario; (2 the warming effect is stronger and wider in centralized urbanization scenario than in decentralized urbanization scenario; (3 the impact trends of urban land use expansion on precipitation are basically the same under different scenarios; (4 and spatial distribution of rainfall was more concentrated under centralized urbanization scenario, and there is a rainfall center of wider scope, greater intensity. Accordingly, it can be concluded that decentralized urbanization is a reasonable urbanization pattern to mitigate climate change in rapid urbanization period.

The Impact of Albedo Increase to Mitigate the Urban Heat Island in Terni (Italy Using the WRF Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elena Morini

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The impacts of the urban heat island (UHI phenomenon on energy consumption, air quality, and human health have been widely studied and described. Mitigation strategies have been developed to fight the UHI and its detrimental consequences. A potential countermeasure is the increase of urban albedo by using cool materials. Cool materials are highly reflective materials that can maintain lower surface temperatures and thus can present an effective solution to mitigate the UHI. Terni’s proven record of high temperatures along with related environmental and comfort issues in its urban areas have reflected the local consequences of global warming. On the other hand, it promoted integrated actions by the government and research institutes to investigate solutions to mitigate the UHI effects. In this study, the main goal is to investigate the effectiveness of albedo increase as a strategy to tackle the UHI, by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF mesoscale model to simulate the urban climate of Terni (Italy. Three different scenarios through a summer heat wave in the summer of 2015 are analyzed. The Base Scenario, which simulates the actual conditions of the urban area, is the control case. In the Albedo Scenario (ALB Scenario, the albedo of the roof, walls and road of the whole urban area is increased. In the Albedo-Industrial Scenario (ALB-IND Scenario, the albedo of the roof, walls and road of the area occupied by the main industrial site of Terni, located in close proximity to the city center, is increased. The simulation results show that the UHI is decreased up to 2 °C both at daytime and at nighttime in the ALB and in ALB-IND Scenarios. Peak temperatures in the urban area can be decreased by 1 °C at daytime, and by about 2 °C at nighttime. Albedo increase in the area of interest might thus represent an opportunity to decrease the UHI effect and its consequences.

Nuclear safety in the next century

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meneley, D A [Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd., Mississauga, ON (Canada)

1993-12-31

Can nuclear plants b made safe enough to be suitable for worldwide large-scale use? Can the radioactive wastes generated be safely managed over long terms? This paper addresses these questions from a vantage point within the nuclear industry. It also provides a scenario of the possible development over the next century of the Bruce nuclear energy centre on Lake Huron as an illustration of why it is worthwhile to further nuclear technology. (author). 4 figs.

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

2014-12-01

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their

Transport Pathways for Light Duty Vehicles: Towards a 2° Scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

François Cuenot

2013-04-01

Full Text Available The transport sector is the second largest and one of the fastest growing energy end-use sectors, representing 24% of global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. The International Energy Agency has developed scenarios for the transport sector within the overall concept of mitigation pathways that would be required to limit global warming to 2 °C. This paper builds on these scenarios and illustrates various passenger travel-related strategies for achieving a 2° transport scenario, in particular looking at how much technology improvement is needed in the light of different changes in travel and modal shares in OECD and non-OECD countries. It finds that an integrated approach using all feasible policy options is likely to deliver the required emission reductions at least cost, and that stronger travel-related measures result in significantly lower technological requirements.

Accelerator Disaster Scenarios, the Unabomber, and Scientific Risks

OpenAIRE

Kapusta, Joseph I.

2008-01-01

The possibility that experiments at high-energy accelerators could create new forms of matter that would ultimately destroy the Earth has been considered several times in the past quarter century. One consequence of the earliest of these disaster scenarios was that the authors of a 1993 article in "Physics Today" who reviewed the experiments that had been carried out at the Bevalac at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory were placed on the FBI's Unabomber watch list. Later, concerns that experiments ...

Integral analyses of fission product retention at mitigated thermally-induced SGTR using ARTIST experimental data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rýdl, Adolf; Lind, Terttaliisa; Birchley, Jonathan

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Source term analyses in a PWR of mitigated thermally-induced SGTR scenario performed. • Experimental ARTIST program results on aerosol scrubbing efficiency used in analyses. • Results demonstrate enhanced aerosol retention in a flooded steam generator. • High aerosol retention cannot be predicted by current theoretical scrubbing models. - Abstract: Integral source-term analyses are performed using MELCOR for a PWR Station Blackout (SBO) sequence leading to induced steam generator tube rupture (SGTR). In the absence of any mitigation measures, such a sequence can result in a containment bypass where the radioactive materials can be released directly to the environment. In some SGTR scenarios flooding of the faulted SG secondary side with water can mitigate the accident escalation and also the release of aerosol-borne and volatile radioactive materials. Data on the efficiency of aerosol scrubbing in an SG tube bundle were obtained in the international ARTIST project. In this paper ARTIST data are used directly with parametric MELCOR analyses of a mitigated SGTR sequence to provide more realistic estimates of the releases to environment in such a type of scenario or similar. Comparison is made with predictions using the default scrubbing model in MELCOR, as a representative of the aerosol scrubbing models in current integral codes. Specifically, simulations are performed for an unmitigated sequence and 2 cases where the SG secondary was refilled at different times after the tube rupture. The results, reflecting the experimental observations from ARTIST, demonstrate enhanced aerosol retention in the highly turbulent two-phase flow conditions caused by the complex geometry of the SG secondary side. This effect is not captured by any of the models currently available. The underlying physics remains only partly understood, indicating need for further studies to support a more mechanistic treatment of the retention process.

The 21st century population-energy-climate nexus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, Glenn A.; Warner, Kevin J.

2016-01-01

World population is projected to reach 10.9 billion by 2100, yet nearly one-fifth of the world's current 7.2 billion live without access to electricity. Though universal energy access is desirable, a significant reduction in fossil fuel usage is required before mid-century if global warming is to be limited to <2 °C. Here we quantify the changes in the global energy mix necessary to address population and climate change under two energy-use scenarios, finding that renewable energy production (9% in 2014) must comprise 87–94% of global energy consumption by 2100. Our study suggests >50% renewable energy needs to occur by 2028 in a <2 °C warming scenario, but not until 2054 in an unconstrained energy use scenario. Given the required rate and magnitude of this transition to renewable energy, it is unlikely that the <2 °C goal can be met. Focus should be placed on expanding renewable energy as quickly as possible in order to limit warming to 2.5–3 °C. - Highlights: •World population growth, energy scarcity, and climate are interrelated issues. •Non-renewable energy sources are projected to peak around mid-century. •Renewable energy must provide 50+% of total energy by 2028 to maintain <2 °C warming goal. •Renewable energy must provide 87+% of total energy by 2100 regardless of climate concerns.

Global scenarios of urban density and its impacts on building energy use through 2050.

Science.gov (United States)

Güneralp, Burak; Zhou, Yuyu; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana; Gupta, Mukesh; Yu, Sha; Patel, Pralit L; Fragkias, Michail; Li, Xiaoma; Seto, Karen C

2017-08-22

Although the scale of impending urbanization is well-acknowledged, we have a limited understanding of how urban forms will change and what their impact will be on building energy use. Using both top-down and bottom-up approaches and scenarios, we examine building energy use for heating and cooling. Globally, the energy use for heating and cooling by the middle of the century will be between 45 and 59 exajoules per year (corresponding to an increase of 7-40% since 2010). Most of this variability is due to the uncertainty in future urban densities of rapidly growing cities in Asia and particularly China. Dense urban development leads to less urban energy use overall. Waiting to retrofit the existing built environment until markets are ready in about 5 years to widely deploy the most advanced renovation technologies leads to more savings in building energy use. Potential for savings in energy use is greatest in China when coupled with efficiency gains. Advanced efficiency makes the least difference compared with the business-as-usual scenario in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa but significantly contributes to energy savings in North America and Europe. Systemic efforts that focus on both urban form, of which urban density is an indicator, and energy-efficient technologies, but that also account for potential co-benefits and trade-offs with human well-being can contribute to both local and global sustainability. Particularly in growing cities in the developing world, such efforts can improve the well-being of billions of urban residents and contribute to mitigating climate change by reducing energy use in urban areas.

Renewable and low-carbon energies as mitigation options of climate change for China

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Urban, F.; Benders, R. M. J.; Moll, H. C.

This article discusses how renewable and low-carbon energies can serve as mitigation options of climate change in China's power sector. Our study is based on scenarios developed in PowerPlan, a bottom-up model simulating a countries' power sector and its emissions. We first adjusted the model to

Exploring the future role of Asia utilizing a Scenario Matrix Architecture and Shared Socio-economic Pathways

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Kate; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, Jae; Kim, Sonny; Kopp, Robert; Kyle, Page; Luckow, Patrick; Moss, Richard; Patel, Pralit; Wise, Marshall

2012-01-01

We explore the implications that alternative pathways for human population and economic development have for the role of Asia in reference no-climate-policy scenarios and scenarios in which climate forcing is limited. We consider three different pathways of socioeconomic development, which we refer to as Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and four different levels of limitation on climate forcing, which we refer to as Shared Climate Policy Assumptions (SPAs). SSPs are differentiated by population and economic growth assumptions, while SPAs are differentiated on the level of radiative forcing in the year 2100. Regardless of the scenarios we examined Asia plays a central role in shaping the world's future with nearly half of the world's people and more than half of the world's economic activity and energy consumption. The future of Asia and the world are dramatically different across the various combinations of SSPs and SPAs. High population worlds place significant stress on Asian resources and ecosystems. In high population SSPs the poorest members of the population face high energy and food prices and the more stringent the level of emissions mitigation, the more stress poor populations experience, though the more stringent the emissions mitigation, the larger the area of unmanaged ecosystems that are preserved. - Highlights: ► We explore the implications of alternative population and economic pathways for the role of Asia. ► High population world places significant stress on Asian resources and ecosystems. ► In high population world, the poorest members of the population face high energy and food prices. ► The greater level of emissions mitigation, the more stress poor people experience. ► The greater the emissions mitigation, the larger the area of unmanaged ecosystems preserved.

Energy Technology Roll-Out for Climate Change Mitigation: A Multi-Model Study for Latin America

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Zwaan, B.; Kober, T.; Calderon, S.; Clarke, L.; Daenzer, K.; Kitous, A.; Labriet, M.; Lucena, A.F.P.; Octaviano, C.; Di Sbroiavacca, N.

In this paper we investigate opportunities for energy technology deployment under climate change mitigation efforts in Latin America. Through several carbon tax and CO2 abatement scenarios until 2050 we analyze what resources and technologies, notably for electricity generation, could be

Playing against nature: improving earthquake hazard mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, S. A.; Stein, J.

2012-12-01

uncertainties and the need to candidly assess them. It can be applied to exploring policies under various hazard scenarios and mitigating other natural hazards.ariation in total cost, the sum of expected loss and mitigation cost, as a function of mitigation level. The optimal level of mitigation, n*, minimizes the total cost. The expected loss depends on the hazard model, so the better the hazard model, the better the mitigation policy (Stein and Stein, 2012).

Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes.

Science.gov (United States)

Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

2016-04-12

Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.

Mitigating secondary aerosol generation potentials from biofuel use in the energy sector.

Science.gov (United States)

Tiwary, Abhishek; Colls, Jeremy

2010-01-01

This paper demonstrates secondary aerosol generation potential of biofuel use in the energy sector from the photochemical interactions of precursor gases on a life cycle basis. The paper is divided into two parts-first, employing life cycle analysis (LCA) to evaluate the extent of the problem for a typical biofuel based electricity production system using five baseline scenarios; second, proposing adequate mitigation options to minimise the secondary aerosol generation potential on a life cycle basis. The baseline scenarios cover representative technologies for 2010 utilising energy crop (miscanthus), short rotation coppiced chips and residual/waste wood in different proportions. The proposed mitigation options include three approaches-biomass gasification prior to combustion, delaying the harvest of biomass, and increasing the geographical distance between the biomass plant and the harvest site (by importing the biofuels). Preliminary results indicate that the baseline scenarios (assuming all the biomass is sourced locally) bear significant secondary aerosol formation potential on a life cycle basis from photochemical neutralisation of acidic emissions (hydrogen chloride and sulphur dioxide) with ammonia. Our results suggest that gasification of miscanthus biomass would provide the best option by minimising the acidic emissions from the combustion plant whereas the other two options of delaying the harvest or importing biofuels from elsewhere would only lead to marginal reduction in the life cycle aerosol loadings of the systems.

Pre-test analysis of ATLAS SBO with RCP seal leakage scenario using MARS code

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pham, Quang Huy; Lee, Sang Young; Oh, Seung Jong [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

This study presents a pre-test calculation for the Advanced Thermal-hydraulic Test Loop for Accident Simulation (ATLAS) SBO experiment with RCP seal leakage scenario. Initially, turbine-driven auxfeed water pumps are used. Then, outside cooling water injection method is used for long term cooling. The analysis results would be useful for conducting the experiment to verify the APR 1400 extended SBO optimum mitigation strategy using outside cooling water injection in future. The pre-test calculation for ATLAS extended SBO with RCP seal leakage and outside cooling water injection scenario is performed. After Fukushima nuclear accident, the capability of coping with the extended station blackout (SBO) becomes important. Many NPPs are applying FLEX approach as main coping strategies for extended SBO scenarios. In FLEX strategies, outside cooling water injection to reactor cooling system (RCS) and steam generators (SGs) is considered as an effective method to remove residual heat and maintain the inventory of the systems during the accident. It is worthwhile to examine the soundness of outside cooling water injection method for extended SBO mitigation by both calculation and experimental demonstration. From the calculation results, outside cooling water injection into RCS and SGs is verified as an effective method during extended SBO when RCS and SGs depressurization is sufficiently performed.

Climates of U.S. cities in the 21st century

Science.gov (United States)

Krayenhoff, E. S.; Georgescu, M.; Moustaoui, M.

2017-12-01

Urban climates are projected to warm over the 21st century due to global climate change and urban development. To assess this projected warming, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations are performed at 20 km resolution over the contiguous U.S. for three 10-year periods: contemporary (2000-2009), mid-century (2050-2059), and end-of-century (2090-2099). Urban land use projections are derived from the EPA's ICLUS data set, and future climate projections are based on two global climate models and two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The potential for design implementations such as `green' roofs and high albedo roofs to offset the projected warming is considered. Effects of urban expansion, urban densification and infrastructure adaptation on urban climate are compared over the century. Assessment considers impacts at both seasonal and diurnal scales, isolates fair weather impacts, and considers multiple climate variables: air temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, and surface energy budget partitioning.

Atmospheric composition calculations for evaluation of climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krol, M.S.; Woerd, H.J. van der

1994-01-01

The future radiative forcing by non-CO 2 greenhouse gases depends strongly on the behavior of the OH radical, which represents the primary sink for CH 4 , CO and H(C)FCs in the atmosphere. The authors present a simple model to describe the changes in the concentration of the main greenhouse gases. The focus is on the description of the atmospheric chemistry of OH and the important tropospheric oxidant and greenhouse gas O 3 . Changes in the equilibrium concentrations of these oxidants will change the trends in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, especially CH 4 . The model is applied to the 1992 IPCC emissions scenarios, as well as to an IMAGE 2.0 scenario, based on 'Conventional Wisdom' assumptions. The following major results are found: for the central estimate of emissions assuming no additional policies (IS92a), the concentration of CH 4 keeps rising at rates similar to those observed over the last decades; results for the other IS92 scenarios range from stabilization early in the next century (IS92d) to an ever increasing rate of accumulation of CH 4 in the atmosphere (IS92f), even though these scenarios assume no policy interventions. The IMAGE 2.0 Conventional Wisdom scenario is similar to IS92a before the year 2025; afterwards the expansion of agricultural area significantly decreases the emissions of hydrocarbons and NO x from savanna burning, not represented in the IS92 scenarios. This leads to stable levels of atmospheric CH 4 after 2025

Voltage unbalance mitigation in LV networks using three-phase PV systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Garcia Bajo, Cristina; Hashemi Toghroljerdi, Seyedmostafa; Bækhøj Kjær, Søren

2015-01-01

In this paper a new method is proposed to mitigate voltage unbalance caused by single-phase solar inverters in low voltage (LV) networks. The method is based on uneven reactive power absorption and injection by three-phase solar inverters. Independent control of each phase is performed to achieve...... this uneven injection. The average values of phase voltages at the connection points of the photovoltaic (PV) inverters are used as the references for the balancing algorithm. Voltage unbalance mitigation is achieved by use of this method in different scenarios with variable three-phase and single......-phase inverters penetration in a realistic LV grid. In addition, the overvoltage is reduced by using this method....

The current biodiversity extinction event: scenarios for mitigation and recovery.

Science.gov (United States)

Novacek, M J; Cleland, E E

2001-05-08

The current massive degradation of habitat and extinction of species is taking place on a catastrophically short timescale, and their effects will fundamentally reset the future evolution of the planet's biota. The fossil record suggests that recovery of global ecosystems has required millions or even tens of millions of years. Thus, intervention by humans, the very agents of the current environmental crisis, is required for any possibility of short-term recovery or maintenance of the biota. Many current recovery efforts have deficiencies, including insufficient information on the diversity and distribution of species, ecological processes, and magnitude and interaction of threats to biodiversity (pollution, overharvesting, climate change, disruption of biogeochemical cycles, introduced or invasive species, habitat loss and fragmentation through land use, disruption of community structure in habitats, and others). A much greater and more urgently applied investment to address these deficiencies is obviously warranted. Conservation and restoration in human-dominated ecosystems must strengthen connections between human activities, such as agricultural or harvesting practices, and relevant research generated in the biological, earth, and atmospheric sciences. Certain threats to biodiversity require intensive international cooperation and input from the scientific community to mitigate their harmful effects, including climate change and alteration of global biogeochemical cycles. In a world already transformed by human activity, the connection between humans and the ecosystems they depend on must frame any strategy for the recovery of the biota.

Greenhouse Gas Implications of Peri-Urban Land Use Change in a Developed City under Four Future Climate Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alison Rothwell

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Present decisions about urbanization of peri-urban (PU areas may contribute to the capacity of cities to mitigate future climate change. Comprehensive mitigative responses to PU development should require integration of urban form and food production to realise potential trade-offs. Despite this, few studies examine greenhouse gas (GHG implications of future urban development combined with impacts on PU food production. In this paper, four future scenarios, at 2050 and 2100 time horizons, were developed to evaluate the potential GHG emissions implications of feeding and housing a growing urban population in Sydney, Australia. The scenarios were thematically downscaled from the four relative concentration pathways. Central to the scenarios were differences in population, technology, energy, housing form, transportation, temperature, food production and land use change (LUC. A life cycle assessment approach was used within the scenarios to evaluate differences in GHG impacts. Differences in GHG emissions between scenarios at the 2100 time horizon, per area of PU land transformed, approximated 0.7 Mt CO2-e per year. Per additional resident this equated to 0.7 to 6.1 t CO2-e per year. Indirect LUC has the potential to be significant. Interventions such as carbon capture and storage technology, renewables and urban form markedly reduced emissions. However, incorporating cross-sectoral energy saving measures within urban planning at the regional scale requires a paradigmatic shift.

CMAQ and NPS : exploring the applicability of the Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality Improvement program to NPS transit

Science.gov (United States)

2014-03-06

The Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality Improvement (CMAQ) Program is a funding program that was most recently : re-authorized in Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century. CMAQ offers a potential funding opportunity for NPS park units : with e...

U.S. climate mitigation pathways post-2012: Transition scenarios in ADAGE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ross, Martin T.; Fawcett, Allen A.; Clapp, Christa S.

2009-01-01

The transition from the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels currently allowed under the Kyoto Protocol climate agreement to more ambitious, and internationally comprehensive, GHG reduction goals will have important implications for the global economic system. Given the major role that the United States plays in the global economy, and also as a major GHG emitter, this paper examines a range of climate policy pathways for the country in the context of international actions. The ADAGE model is used to examine policy impacts for climate scenarios, focusing on key factors such as emissions, technology deployment, macroeconomic indicators and international trade. In general, the simulations indicate that reductions in GHG emissions can be accomplished with limited economic adjustments, although impacts depend on the future availability of new low-carbon technologies.

Fire-regime variability impacts forest carbon dynamics for centuries to millennia

Science.gov (United States)

Hudiburg, Tara W.; Higuera, Philip E.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.

2017-08-01

Wildfire is a dominant disturbance agent in forest ecosystems, shaping important biogeochemical processes including net carbon (C) balance. Long-term monitoring and chronosequence studies highlight a resilience of biogeochemical properties to large, stand-replacing, high-severity fire events. In contrast, the consequences of repeated fires or temporal variability in a fire regime (e.g., the characteristic timing or severity of fire) are largely unknown, yet theory suggests that such variability could strongly influence forest C trajectories (i.e., future states or directions) for millennia. Here we combine a 4500-year paleoecological record of fire activity with ecosystem modeling to investigate how fire-regime variability impacts soil C and net ecosystem carbon balance. We found that C trajectories in a paleo-informed scenario differed significantly from an equilibrium scenario (with a constant fire return interval), largely due to variability in the timing and severity of past fires. Paleo-informed scenarios contained multi-century periods of positive and negative net ecosystem C balance, with magnitudes significantly larger than observed under the equilibrium scenario. Further, this variability created legacies in soil C trajectories that lasted for millennia. Our results imply that fire-regime variability is a major driver of C trajectories in stand-replacing fire regimes. Predicting carbon balance in these systems, therefore, will depend strongly on the ability of ecosystem models to represent a realistic range of fire-regime variability over the past several centuries to millennia.

Modeling Malaria Vector Distribution under Climate Change Scenarios in Kenya

Science.gov (United States)

Ngaina, J. N.

2017-12-01

Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control strategies for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. However, in Kenya, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of future climate change on locally dominant Anopheles vectors including Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles merus, Anopheles funestus, Anopheles pharoensis and Anopheles nili. Environmental data (Climate, Land cover and elevation) and primary empirical geo-located species-presence data were identified. The principle of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to model the species' potential distribution area under paleoclimate, current and future climates. The Maxent model was highly accurate with a statistically significant AUC value. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for Anopheles gambiae, An. arabiensis, An. funestus and An. pharoensis would increase under all two scenarios for mid-century (2016-2045), but decrease for end century (2071-2100). An increase in ESA of An. Funestus was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios for mid-century. Our findings can be applied in various ways such as the identification of additional localities where Anopheles malaria vectors may already exist, but has not yet been detected and the recognition of localities where it is likely to spread to. Moreover, it will help guide future sampling location decisions, help with the planning of vector control suites nationally and encourage broader research inquiry into vector species niche modeling

Introducing land-cover and land-use changes in a climate scenario of the 21. century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Voldoire, A.

2005-03-01

The main objective of this work has been to run a climate simulation of the 21. century that includes not only greenhouse gases and aerosols emitted by human activity but also land-use and land-cover changes. To achieve this goal, the integrated impact model IMAGE2.2 (developed at RIVM, The Netherlands) was used, which simulates the evolution of greenhouse gases concentrations as well as land-cover changes. This model has been coupled to the general circulation model ARPEGE/OPA provided by the CNRM. Before coupling the models, sensitivity experiments with each model have been performed to test their respective sensitivity to the forcing of the other. Ultimately, a simulation with the two models coupled together has shown that interactions between climate and vegetation are not of primary importance for century scale studies. (author)

Mitigating Climate Change with Earth Orbital Sunshades

Science.gov (United States)

Coverstone, Victoria; Johnson, Les

2015-01-01

An array of rotating sunshades based on emerging solar sail technology will be deployed in a novel Earth orbit to provide near-continuous partial shading of the Earth, reducing the heat input to the atmosphere by blocking a small percentage of the incoming sunlight, and mitigating local weather effects of anticipated climate change over the next century. The technology will provide local cooling relief during extreme heat events (and heating relief during extreme cold events) thereby saving human lives, agriculture, livestock, water and energy needs. A synthesis of the solar sail design, the sails' operational modes, and the selected orbit combine to provide local weather modification.

US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wing, Ian Sue; Monier, Erwan; Stern, Ari; Mundra, Anupriya

2015-01-01

We estimate the costs of climate change to US agriculture, and associated potential benefits of abating greenhouse gas emissions. Five major crops’ yield responses to climatic variation are modeled empirically, and the results combined with climate projections for a no-policy, high-warming future, as well as moderate and stringent mitigation scenarios. Unabated warming reduces yields of wheat and soybeans by 2050, and cotton by 2100, but moderate warming increases yields of all crops except wheat. Yield changes are monetized using the results of economic simulations within an integrated climate-economy modeling framework. Uncontrolled warming’s economic effects on major crops are slightly positive—annual benefits <$4 B. These are amplified by emission reductions, but subject to diminishing returns—by 2100 reaching $17 B under moderate mitigation, but only $7 B with stringent mitigation. Costs and benefits are sensitive to irreducible uncertainty about the fertilization effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, without which unabated warming incurs net costs of up to $18 B, generating benefits to moderate (stringent) mitigation as large as $26 B ($20 B). (letter)

The response of the climate system to very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanderson, Benjamin M; O'Neill, Brian C; Kiehl, Jeffrey T; Meehl, Gerald A; Knutti, Reto; Washington, Warren M

2011-01-01

Well informed decisions on climate policy necessitate simulation of the climate system for a sufficiently wide range of emissions scenarios. While recent literature has been devoted to low emissions futures, the potential for very high emissions has not been thoroughly explored. We specify two illustrative emissions scenarios that are significantly higher than the A1FI scenario, the highest scenario considered in past IPCC reports, and simulate them in a global climate model to investigate their climate change implications. Relative to the A1FI scenario, our highest scenario results in an additional 2 K of global mean warming above A1FI levels by 2100, a complete loss of arctic summer sea-ice by 2070 and an additional 43% sea level rise due to thermal expansion above A1FI levels by 2100. Regional maximum temperature increases from late 20th century values are 50-100% greater than A1FI increases, with some regions such as the Central US, the Tibetan plateau and Alaska showing a 300-400% increase above A1FI levels.

The response of the climate system to very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sanderson, Benjamin M; O' Neill, Brian C; Kiehl, Jeffrey T; Meehl, Gerald A [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Knutti, Reto; Washington, Warren M, E-mail: bsander@ucar.edu [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich (Switzerland)

2011-07-15

Well informed decisions on climate policy necessitate simulation of the climate system for a sufficiently wide range of emissions scenarios. While recent literature has been devoted to low emissions futures, the potential for very high emissions has not been thoroughly explored. We specify two illustrative emissions scenarios that are significantly higher than the A1FI scenario, the highest scenario considered in past IPCC reports, and simulate them in a global climate model to investigate their climate change implications. Relative to the A1FI scenario, our highest scenario results in an additional 2 K of global mean warming above A1FI levels by 2100, a complete loss of arctic summer sea-ice by 2070 and an additional 43% sea level rise due to thermal expansion above A1FI levels by 2100. Regional maximum temperature increases from late 20th century values are 50-100% greater than A1FI increases, with some regions such as the Central US, the Tibetan plateau and Alaska showing a 300-400% increase above A1FI levels.

The Emergence of Climate Change and Mitigation Action by Society: An Agent-Based Scenario Discovery Study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Greeven, Sebastiaan; Kraan, O.D.E.; Chappin, E.J.L.

2016-01-01

Developing model-based narratives of society’s response to climate change is challenged by two factors. First, society’s response to possible future climate change is subject to many uncertainties. Second, we argue that society’s mitigation action emerge out of the actions and interactions of the

Health co-benefits from air pollution and mitigation costs of the Paris Agreement: a modelling study

OpenAIRE

Prof Anil Markandya, PhD; Jon Sampedro, MSc; Steven J Smith, PhD; Rita Van Dingenen, PhD; Cristina Pizarro-Irizar, PhD; Prof Iñaki Arto, PhD; Prof Mikel González-Eguino, PhD

2018-01-01

Background: Although the co-benefits from addressing problems related to both climate change and air pollution have been recognised, there is not much evidence comparing the mitigation costs and economic benefits of air pollution reduction for alternative approaches to meeting greenhouse gas targets. We analysed the extent to which health co-benefits would compensate the mitigation cost of achieving the targets of the Paris climate agreement (2°C and 1·5°C) under different scenarios in which ...

Advanced Insider Threat Mitigation Workshop Instructional Materials

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gibbs, Philip [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Larsen, Robert [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); O' Brien, Mike [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Edmunds, Tom [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2009-02-01

Insiders represent a formidable threat to nuclear facilities. This set of workshop materials covers methodologies to analyze and approaches to mitigate the threat of an insider attempting abrupt and protracted theft of nuclear materials. This particular set of materials is an update of a January 2008 version to add increased emphasis on Material Control and Accounting and its role with respect to protracted insider nuclear material theft scenarios. This report is a compilation of workshop materials consisting of lectures on technical and administrative measures used in Physical Protection (PP) and Material Control and Accounting (MC&A) and methods for analyzing their effectiveness against a postulated insider threat. The postulated threat includes both abrupt and protracted theft scenarios. Presentation is envisioned to be through classroom instruction and discussion. Several practical and group exercises are included for demonstration and application of the analysis approach contained in the lecture/discussion sessions as applied to a hypothetical nuclear facility.

A key to improved ion core confinement in the JET tokamak: ion stiffness mitigation due to combined plasma rotation and low magnetic shear.

Science.gov (United States)

Mantica, P; Angioni, C; Challis, C; Colyer, G; Frassinetti, L; Hawkes, N; Johnson, T; Tsalas, M; deVries, P C; Weiland, J; Baiocchi, B; Beurskens, M N A; Figueiredo, A C A; Giroud, C; Hobirk, J; Joffrin, E; Lerche, E; Naulin, V; Peeters, A G; Salmi, A; Sozzi, C; Strintzi, D; Staebler, G; Tala, T; Van Eester, D; Versloot, T

2011-09-23

New transport experiments on JET indicate that ion stiffness mitigation in the core of a rotating plasma, as described by Mantica et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 102, 175002 (2009)] results from the combined effect of high rotational shear and low magnetic shear. The observations have important implications for the understanding of improved ion core confinement in advanced tokamak scenarios. Simulations using quasilinear fluid and gyrofluid models show features of stiffness mitigation, while nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations do not. The JET experiments indicate that advanced tokamak scenarios in future devices will require sufficient rotational shear and the capability of q profile manipulation.

The implications of carbon dioxide and methane exchange for the heavy mitigation RCP2.6 scenario under two metrics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huntingford, Chris; Lowe, Jason A.; Howarth, Nicholas; Bowerman, Niel H.A.; Gohar, Laila K.; Otto, Alexander; Lee, David S.; Smith, Stephen M.; Elzen, Michel G.J. den; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Millar, Richard J.; Allen, Myles R.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Exchanging methane for carbon dioxide emissions affects peak global warming. • Economic constraints severely affects exchange possibilities. • Chosen metric determines if economic to eliminate all removable methane emissions. • If all methane emissions could be removed, this could aid meeting two-degrees warming target. - Abstract: Greenhouse gas emissions associated with Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 could limit global warming to around or below a 2 °C increase since pre-industrial times. However this scenario implies very large and rapid reductions in both carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and non-CO 2 emissions, and suggests a need to understand available flexibility between how different greenhouse gases might be abated. There is a growing interest in developing a greater understanding of the particular role of shorter lived non-CO 2 gases as abatement options. We address this here through a sensitivity study of different methane (CH 4 ) emissions pathways to year 2100 and beyond, by including exchanges with CO 2 emissions, and with a focus on related climate and economic advantages and disadvantages. Metrics exist that characterise gas equivalence in terms of climate change effect per tonne emitted. We analyse the implications of CO 2 and CH 4 emission exchanges under two commonly considered metrics: the 100-yr Global Warming Potential (GWP-100) and Global Temperature Potential (GTP-100). This is whilst keeping CO 2 -equivalent emissions pathways fixed, based on the standard set of emissions usually associated with RCP2.6. An idealised situation of anthropogenic CH 4 emissions being reduced to zero across a period of two decades and with the implementation of such cuts starting almost immediately gives lower warming than for standard RCP2.6 emissions during the 21st and 22nd Century. This is despite exchanging for higher CO 2 emissions. Introducing Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curves provides an economic assessment of alternative gas

Assessment and mitigation of the environmental burdens to air from land applied food-based digestate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tiwary, A.; Williams, I.D.; Pant, D.C.; Kishore, V.V.N.

2015-01-01

Anaerobic digestion (AD) of putrescible urban waste for energy recovery has seen rapid growth over recent years. In order to ascertain its systems scale sustainability, however, determination of the environmental fate of the large volume of digestate generated during the process is indispensable. This paper evaluates the environmental burdens to air associated with land applied food-based digestate in terms of primary pollutants (ammonia, nitrogen dioxide) and greenhouse gases (methane and nitrous oxide). The assessments have been made in two stages – first, the emissions from surface application of food-based digestate are quantified for the business as usual (BAU). In the next step, environmental burden minimisation potentials for the following three mitigation measures are estimated – mixed waste digestate (MWD), soil-incorporated digestate (SID), and post-methanated digestate (PMD). Overall, the mitigation scenarios demonstrated considerable NH 3 , CH 4 and N 2 O burden minimisation potentials, with positive implications for both climate change and urban pollution. - Highlights: • In situ air pollution assessment of land applied digestate is performed. • Environmental burden minimisation scenarios for digestate bio fertiliser presented. • Food-based digestate show high ammonia volatilisation potential. • Soil incorporated digestate effectively reduces NH 3 but elevates N 2 O emissions. • Managing digestate emissions mitigate both climate change and air pollution. - In situ monitoring and analyses demonstrate the role of post-processing in greenhouse gases and air pollution mitigation from food-based digestate use as bio fertiliser

Canada's energy future : reference case and scenarios to 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

Energy is essential to the comfort and economic prosperity of Canadians. This report highlighted some of the issues that Canada faces with respect to its energy future. The report focused on emerging trends in energy supply and demand, and examined various energy futures that may be available to Canadians up to the year 2030. Three different scenarios were presented: (1) a continuing trends scenario; (2) a triple E scenario in which economic, environmental and energy objectives are balanced; and (3) a fortified islands scenario in which security concerns were coupled with international unrest and protectionist governments. The report determined that energy demand will remain a function of population and economic growth. Automobiles will continue to rely on fossil fuels. Energy efficiency will improve in relation to the effectiveness of government policies, and a move towards natural gas alternatives will occur. However, fossil fuels will remain a dominant source of energy supply. Oil sands production grew in all 3 of the evaluated scenarios. It is expected that total natural gas production will decline and imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will increase. In all 3 scenarios greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased or only slightly declined. A full spectrum of GHG mitigation strategies will need to be implemented so that Canada can meet its target of a 20 per cent reduction in GHGs by 2020. It was concluded that effective policies are needed to optimize Canada's multiple objectives of economic growth, environment sustainability, and development of energy resources. 6 tabs., 118 figs

Asymmetric Threats and Risks of the XXI Century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doncev, A.

2007-01-01

The rapid technology development in the 21st century has a great influence over the dynamic arm competition, thus threats and risks increasing. They are sublimated in different forms of international terrorism and could produce crisis in the Region, and furthermore all round the world. The international community is faced with new challenges. Now, the territories are not the only targets of attacks. The result of the theoretical and empirical research leads towards to the non-existence of national crisis management capacity. The paper identifies the international scenario which is very complex and unpredictable in the diapason of the asymmetric threats, as well as a new priorities agenda of the international community in the 21st century. Therefore, a risk management model is suggested, too.(author)

Coupled model simulations of climate changes in the 20th century and beyond

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Yongqiang; Zhi, Hai; Wang, Bin; Wan, Hui; Li, Chao; Liu, Hailong; Li, Wei; Zheng, Weipeng; Zhou, Tianjun

2008-07-01

Several scenario experiments of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4) are performed by version g1.0 of a Flexible coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model (FGOALS) developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS), including the “Climate of the 20th century experiment”, “CO2 1% increase per year to doubling experiment” and two separate IPCC greenhouse gases emission scenarios A1B and B1 experiments. To distinguish between the different impacts of natural variations and human activities on the climate change, three-member ensemble runs are performed for each scenario experiment. The coupled model simulations show: (1) from 1900 to 2000, the global mean temperature increases about 0.5°C and the major increase occurs during the later half of the 20th century, which is in consistent with the observations that highlights the coupled model’s ability to reproduce the climate changes since the industrial revolution; (2) the global mean surface air temperature increases about 1.6°C in the CO2 doubling experiment and 1.5°C and 2.4°C in the A1B and B1 scenarios, respectively. The global warming is indicated by not only the changes of the surface temperature and precipitation but also the temperature increase in the deep ocean. The thermal expansion of the sea water would induce the rise of the global mean sea level. Both the control run and the 20th century climate change run are carried out again with version g1.1 of FGOALS, in which the cold biases in the high latitudes were removed. They are then compared with those from version g1.0 of FGOALS in order to distinguish the effect of the model biases on the simulation of global warming.

Fuel carbon intensity standards may not mitigate climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Plevin, Richard J.; Delucchi, Mark A.; O’Hare, Michael

2017-01-01

To mitigate the climate change effects of transportation, the US states of California and Oregon, the Canadian province of British Columbia, and the European Union have implemented regulations to reduce the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of transport fuel, commonly referred to as 'carbon intensity', or CI. In this article, we unpack the theory and practice of fuel CI standards, examining claims regarding climate-change mitigation. We show that these standards do not reliably mitigate climate change because estimates of GHG reductions rely primarily on models that are not designed to estimate changes in emissions and climate impacts. Some regulations incorporate models that estimate a subset of changes in emissions, but the models must project changes in global markets over decades, and there is little agreement about the best model structure or parameter values. Since multiple models and projections may be equally plausible, fuel CI is inevitably subjective and unverifiable. We conclude that regulating or taxing observable emissions would more reliably achieve emission reduction. - Highlights: • Use of fuel carbon intensity (CI) standards has been expanding recently. • Fuel CI ratings are subjective, scenario- and model-dependent. • Uncertainty in fuel CI ratings creates uncertainty in policy outcomes. • There is no reliable test of whether fuel CI standards mitigate climate change. • Regulating or taxing observable emissions would be a more reliable approach.

Improving risk assessment by defining consistent and reliable system scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Mazzorana

2009-02-01

Full Text Available During the entire procedure of risk assessment for hydrologic hazards, the selection of consistent and reliable scenarios, constructed in a strictly systematic way, is fundamental for the quality and reproducibility of the results. However, subjective assumptions on relevant impact variables such as sediment transport intensity on the system loading side and weak point response mechanisms repeatedly cause biases in the results, and consequently affect transparency and required quality standards. Furthermore, the system response of mitigation measures to extreme event loadings represents another key variable in hazard assessment, as well as the integral risk management including intervention planning. Formative Scenario Analysis, as a supplement to conventional risk assessment methods, is a technique to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a specific case and the potential system behaviour. By two case studies, carried out (1 to analyse sediment transport dynamics in a torrent section equipped with control measures, and (2 to identify hazards induced by woody debris transport at hydraulic weak points, the applicability of the Formative Scenario Analysis technique is presented. It is argued that during scenario planning in general and with respect to integral risk management in particular, Formative Scenario Analysis allows for the development of reliable and reproducible scenarios in order to design more specifically an application framework for the sustainable assessment of natural hazards impact. The overall aim is to optimise the hazard mapping and zoning procedure by methodologically integrating quantitative and qualitative knowledge.

Considering only first-order effects? How simplifications lead to unrealistic technology optimism in climate change mitigation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arvesen, Anders, E-mail: anders.arvesen@ntnu.no [Industrial Ecology Programme and Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim NO-7491 (Norway); Bright, Ryan M.; Hertwich, Edgar G. [Industrial Ecology Programme and Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim NO-7491 (Norway)

2011-11-15

This article challenges the notion that energy efficiency and 'clean' energy technologies can deliver sufficient degrees of climate change mitigation. By six arguments not widely recognized in the climate policy arena, we argue that unrealistic technology optimism exists in current climate change mitigation assessments, and, consequently, world energy and climate policy. The overarching theme of the arguments is that incomplete knowledge of indirect effects, and neglect of interactions between parts of physical and social sub-systems, systematically leads to overly optimistic assessments. Society must likely seek deeper changes in social and economic structures to preserve the climatic conditions to which the human civilization is adapted. We call for priority to be given to research evaluating aspects of mitigation in a broad, system-wide perspective. - Highlights: > We highlight some of the simplifying assumptions in climate change mitigation scenarios. > Mitigation assessments are the basis of unfounded technology optimism in climate policy. > Society must likely seek deeper changes in social and economic structures to stabilize climate.

Considering only first-order effects? How simplifications lead to unrealistic technology optimism in climate change mitigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arvesen, Anders; Bright, Ryan M.; Hertwich, Edgar G.

2011-01-01

This article challenges the notion that energy efficiency and 'clean' energy technologies can deliver sufficient degrees of climate change mitigation. By six arguments not widely recognized in the climate policy arena, we argue that unrealistic technology optimism exists in current climate change mitigation assessments, and, consequently, world energy and climate policy. The overarching theme of the arguments is that incomplete knowledge of indirect effects, and neglect of interactions between parts of physical and social sub-systems, systematically leads to overly optimistic assessments. Society must likely seek deeper changes in social and economic structures to preserve the climatic conditions to which the human civilization is adapted. We call for priority to be given to research evaluating aspects of mitigation in a broad, system-wide perspective. - Highlights: → We highlight some of the simplifying assumptions in climate change mitigation scenarios. → Mitigation assessments are the basis of unfounded technology optimism in climate policy. → Society must likely seek deeper changes in social and economic structures to stabilize climate.

Costs of mitigating CO2 emissions from passenger aircraft

Science.gov (United States)

Schäfer, Andreas W.; Evans, Antony D.; Reynolds, Tom G.; Dray, Lynnette

2016-04-01

In response to strong growth in air transportation CO2 emissions, governments and industry began to explore and implement mitigation measures and targets in the early 2000s. However, in the absence of rigorous analyses assessing the costs for mitigating CO2 emissions, these policies could be economically wasteful. Here we identify the cost-effectiveness of CO2 emission reductions from narrow-body aircraft, the workhorse of passenger air transportation. We find that in the US, a combination of fuel burn reduction strategies could reduce the 2012 level of life cycle CO2 emissions per passenger kilometre by around 2% per year to mid-century. These intensity reductions would occur at zero marginal costs for oil prices between US$50-100 per barrel. Even larger reductions are possible, but could impose extra costs and require the adoption of biomass-based synthetic fuels. The extent to which these intensity reductions will translate into absolute emissions reductions will depend on fleet growth.

Carbon Cycle Extremes in the 22nd and 23rd Century and Attribution to Climate Drivers

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, B.; Hoffman, F. M.; Kumar, J.; Ganguly, A. R.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystems are affected by climate extremes such as droughts and heatwaves which have a potential to modify carbon budgets. Previous studies have found the impact of negative extremes in gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem production (NEP) to be diminishing towards the end of the 21st century relative to the overall increase in global carbon uptake. A few studies have estimated that the land use changes (e.g. from forest to croplands) would cause more cumulative carbon loss between 1850 and 2300 than due to climate change caused by anthropogenic forcing over the same interval. However, not many studies have looked at the impact of carbon cycle extremes beyond 21st century especially under with and without LULCC scenarios. This study aims to analyze spatiotemporal extreme events in GPP and NEP using the model CESM1-BGC and understand the climate drivers they can be attributed to. Using the Community Earth System Model (CESM1-BGC), we investigated the impact of climate extremes on the terrestrial ecosystem using simulations forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 with and without land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). To capture non-linear feedbacks in the global carbon cycle, both these simulations were extended to the year 2300. It is important to understand the impacts of climate extremes on the carbon cycle for quantifying carbon-cycle climate feedback and estimating future atmospheric CO2 levels and temperature increases. The results of this study would help improve our understanding of carbon cycle extremes and inform future mitigation policy.

Scenarios for future biodiversity loss due to multiple drivers reveal conflict between mitigating climate change and preserving biodiversity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Powell, Thomas W R; Lenton, Timothy M

2013-01-01

We assess the potential for future biodiversity loss due to three interacting factors: energy withdrawal from ecosystems due to biomass harvest, habitat loss due to land-use change, and climate change. We develop four scenarios to 2050 with different combinations of high or low agricultural efficiency and high or low meat diets, and use species–energy and species–area relationships to estimate their effects on biodiversity. In our scenarios, natural ecosystems are protected except when additional land is necessary to fulfil the increasing dietary demands of the global population. Biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is used as a means of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere (and offsetting fossil fuel emissions). BECCS is based on waste biomass, with the addition of bio-energy crops only when already managed land is no longer needed for food production. Forecast biodiversity loss from natural biomes increases by more than a factor of five in going from high to low agricultural efficiency scenarios, due to destruction of productive habitats by the expansion of pasture. Biodiversity loss from energy withdrawal on managed land varies by a factor of two across the scenarios. Biodiversity loss due to climate change varies only modestly across the scenarios. Climate change is lowest in the ‘low meat high efficiency’ scenario, in which by 2050 around 660 million hectares of pasture are converted to biomass plantation that is used for BECCS. However, the resulting withdrawal of energy from managed ecosystems has a large negative impact on biodiversity. Although the effects of energy withdrawal and climate change on biodiversity cannot be directly compared, this suggests that using bio-energy to tackle climate change in order to limit biodiversity loss could instead have the opposite effect. (letter)

Is there a water–energy nexus in electricity generation? Long-term scenarios for the western United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ackerman, Frank; Fisher, Jeremy

2013-01-01

Water is required for energy supply, and energy is required for water supply, creating problems as demand for both resources grows. We analyze this “water–energy nexus” as it affects long-run electricity planning in the western United States. We develop four scenarios assuming: no new constraints; limits on carbon emissions; limits on water use; and combined carbon and water limits. We evaluate these scenarios through 2100 under a range of carbon and water prices. The carbon-reducing scenarios become cost-effective at carbon prices of about $50–$70 per ton of CO 2 , moderately high but plausible within the century. In contrast, the water-conserving scenarios are not cost-effective until water prices reach thousands of dollars per acre-foot, well beyond foreseeable levels. This is due in part to the modest available water savings: our most and least water-intensive scenarios differ by less than 1% of the region's water consumption. Under our assumptions, Western electricity generation could be reshaped by the cost of carbon emissions, but not by the cost of water, over the course of this century. Both climate change and water scarcity are of critical importance, but only in the former is electricity generation central to the problem and its solutions. - Highlights: • We model long-run electricity supply and demand for the western United States. • We evaluate the costs of carbon-reducing and water-conserving scenarios. • Carbon-reducing scenarios become cost-effective at carbon prices of $50–70 per ton CO 2 . • Water-conserving scenarios are only cost-effective above $4000/acre-foot of water. • Electricity planning is central to climate policy, but much less so to water planning

Water availability change in central Belgium for the late 21st century

Science.gov (United States)

Tabari, Hossein; Taye, Meron Teferi; Willems, Patrick

2015-08-01

We investigate the potential impact of climate change on water availability in central Belgium. Two water balance components being precipitation and potential evapotranspiration are initially projected for the late 21st century (2071-2100) based on 30 Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models relative to a baseline period of 1961-1990, assuming forcing by four representative concentration pathway emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). The future available water is then estimated as the difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration projections. The number of wet days and mean monthly precipitation for summer season is projected to decrease in most of the scenarios, while the projections show an increase in those variables for the winter months. Potential evapotranspiration is expected to increase during both winter and summer seasons. The results show a decrease in water availability for summer and an increase for winter, suggesting drier summers and wetter winters for the late 21st century in central Belgium.

Factors Influencing Stormwater Mitigation in Permeable Pavement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chun Yan Liu

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Permeable pavement (PP is used worldwide to mitigate surface runoff in urban areas. Various studies have examined the factors governing the hydrologic performance of PP. However, relatively little is known about the relative importance of these governing factors and the long-term hydrologic performance of PP. This study applied numerical models—calibrated and validated using existing experimental results—to simulate hundreds of event-based and two long-term rainfall scenarios for two designs of PP. Based on the event-based simulation results, rainfall intensity, rainfall volume, thickness of the storage layer and the hydraulic conductivity of the subgrade were identified as the most influential factors in PP runoff reduction. Over the long term, PP performed significantly better in a relatively drier climate (e.g., New York, reducing nearly 90% of runoff volume compared to 70% in a relatively wetter climate (e.g., Hong Kong. The two designs of PP examined performed differently, and the difference was more apparent in the relatively wetter climate. This study generated insights that will help the design and implementation of PP to mitigate stormwater worldwide.

Projections of 21st Century African Climate: Implications for African Savanna Fire Dynamics, Human Health and Food Security

Science.gov (United States)

Adegoke, J. O.

2015-12-01

Fire is a key agent of change in the African savannas, which are shaped through the complex interactions between trees, C4 grasses, rainfall, temperature, CO2 and fire. These fires and their emitted smoke can have numerous direct and indirect effects on the environment, water resources, air quality, and climate. For instance, veld fires in southern Africa cause large financial losses to agriculture, livestock production and forestry on an annual basis. This study contributes to our understanding of the implications of projected surface temperature evolution in Africa for fire risk, human health and agriculture over the coming decades. We use an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations of African climate for the 21st century. Regional dowscalings and recent global circulation model projections obtained for Africa indicate that African temperatures are likely to rise at 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the tropics, and at almost twice the global rate of increase in the subtropics. Warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with increases of 4-6 °C over the subtropics and 3-5 °C over the tropics plausible by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (low mitigation) scenario. We explore the significance of the projected warming by documenting increases in projected high fire danger days and heat-wave days. General drying is projected across the continent, even for areas (e.g. tropical Africa) where an increase in rainfall is plausible. This is due to the drastic increases in temperature that are projected, which leads to drier soils (through enhanced evaporation) despite the rainfall increases. This will likely impact negatively on crop yield, particularly on the maize crop that is of crucial importance in terms of African food security.

Scenario forecasting changes in the water balance components of the Olenek and Iindigirka river basins due to possible climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ye. M. Gusev

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Scenario projections of the dynamics of meteorological characteristics for the basins of the Olenek and Indigirka rivers (the Republic of Sakha in the XXI century have been obtained for four IPCC global climate change scenarios of SRES family which correspond to specified scenarios of economic, technological, political, and demographic development of human civilization. The projections have been used to calculate scenarios of possible changes in water balance components for the basins under consideration up to the year of 2063. The calculation procedure involves a physically-based model for heat and mass exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere SWAP and climate scenario generator MAGICC/SCENGEN.

Dam Construction in Lancang-Mekong River Basin Could Mitigate Future Flood Risk From Warming-Induced Intensified Rainfall: Dam Mitigate Flood Risk in Mekong

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Wei [Changjiang Institute of Survey, Planning, Design and Research, Wuhan China; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Lu, Hui [Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing China; Ruby Leung, L. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Li, Hong-Yi [Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences and Institute on Ecosystems, Montana State University, Bozeman MT USA; Zhao, Jianshi [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Tian, Fuqiang [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Yang, Kun [Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing China; Sothea, Khem [Mekong Institute of Cambodia, Phnom Penh Cambodia

2017-10-25

Water resources management, in particular flood control, in the Mekong River Basin (MRB) faces two key challenges in the 21st century: climate change and dam construction. A large scale distributed Geomorphology-Based Hydrological Model coupled with a simple reservoir regulation model (GBHM-MK-SOP) is used to investigate the relative effects of climate change and dam construction on the flood characteristics in the MRB. Results suggest an increase in both flood magnitude and frequency under climate change, which is more severe in the upstream basin and increases over time. However, dam construction and stream regulation reduce flood risk consistently throughout this century, with more obvious effects in the upstream basin where larger reservoirs will be located. The flood mitigation effect of dam regulation dominates over the flood intensification effect of climate change before 2060, but the latter emerges more prominently after 2060 and dominates the flood risk especially in the lower basin.

Water within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Constraints and the Impact on Future Global Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Graham, N. T.; Hejazi, M. I.; Davies, E. G.; Calvin, K. V.; Kim, S. H.; Miralles-Wilhelm, F.

2017-12-01

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) represent the next generation of future global change scenarios and their inclusion in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios reinforces the importance of a complete understanding of the SSPs. This study uses the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to investigate the effects of limited water supplies on future withdrawals at regional and water basin scales across all SSPs in combination with various climate mitigation scenarios. Water supply is calculated using a global hydrologic model and water data from five ISI-MIP models across the four RCP scenarios. When water constraints are incorporated, our results show that water withdrawals are reduced by as much as 40% across all SSP scenarios without climate policies. As climate policies are imposed and become more stringent, water withdrawals increase in regions already affected by water stress in order to allow for greater biomass production. The results of this research show the importance of including water resource constraints within the SSP scenarios for establishing water withdrawal scenarios under a wide range of scenarios including different climate policies. The results will also provide data products - such as gridded land use and water demand estimates - of potential interest to the impact, adaptation, and vulnerability community following the SSP scenarios.

Scenarios of Future Socio-Economics, Energy, Land Use, and Radiative Forcing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eom, Jiyong; Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.; Kopp, Roberrt; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Patel, Pralit L.; Thomson, Allison M.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

2013-04-13

This chapter explores uncertainty in future scenarios of energy, land use, emissions and radiative forcing that span the range in the literature for radiative forcing, but also consider uncertainty in two other dimensions, challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. We develop a set of six scenarios that we explore in detail including the underlying the context in which they are set, assumptions that drive the scenarios, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), used to produce quantified implications for those assumptions, and results for the global energy and land-use systems as well as emissions, concentrations and radiative forcing. We also describe the history of scenario development and the present state of development of this branch of climate change research. We discuss the implications of alternative social, economic, demographic, and technology development possibilities, as well as potential stabilization regimes for the supply of and demand for energy, the choice of energy technologies, and prices of energy and agricultural commodities. Land use and land cover will also be discussed with the emphasis on the interaction between the demand for bioenergy and crops, crop yields, crop prices, and policy settings to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

Quantifying the Benefit of Early Climate Change Mitigation in Avoiding Biodiversity Loss

Science.gov (United States)

Warren, R.; Vanderwal, J.; Price, J.; Welbergen, J.; Atkinson, I. M.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Osborn, T.; Shoo, L.; Jarvis, A.; Williams, S.; Lowe, J. A.

2014-12-01

Quantitative simulations of the global-scale benefits of climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss are presented. Previous studies have projected widespread global and regional impacts of climate change on biodiversity. However, these have focused on analysis of business-as-usual scenarios, with no explicit mitigation policy included. This study finds that early, stringent mitigation would avoid a large proportion of the impacts of climate change induced biodiversity loss projected for the 2080s. Furthermore, despite the large number of studies addressing extinction risks in particular species groups, few studies have explored the issue of potential range loss in common and widespread species. Our study is a comprehensive global scale analysis of 48,786 common and widespread species. We show that without climate change mitigation, 57+/-6% of the plants and 34+/-7% of the animals studied are likely to lose over 50% of their present climatic range by the 2080s. This estimate incorporates realistic, taxon-specific dispersal rates. With stringent mitigation, in which emissions peak in 2016 and are reduced by 5% annually thereafter, these losses are reduced by 60%. Furthermore, with stringent mitigation, global temperature rises more slowly, allowing an additional three decades for biodiversity to adapt to a temperature rise of 2C above pre-industrial levels. The work also shows that even with mitigation not all the impacts can now be avoided, and ecosystems and biodiversity generally has a very limited capacity to adapt. Delay in mitigation substantially reduces the percentage of impacts that can be avoided, for example if emissions do not peak until 2030, the percentage of losses that can be avoided declines to 40%. Since even small declines in common and widespread species can disrupt ecosystem function and services, these results indicate that without mitigation, globally widespread losses in ecosystem service provision are to be expected.

Role of innovative technologies under the global zero emissions scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tokimatsu, Koji; Konishi, Satoshi; Ishihara, Keiichi; Tezuka, Tetsuo; Yasuoka, Rieko; Nishio, Masahiro

2016-01-01

Highlights: • We modeled a zero emissions scenario based on the A1T scenario of IPCC-SRES. • We conducted global modeling by minimizing costs of energy, biomass, and materials. • A variety of advanced technology innovations were considered and incorporated. • Results suggest that zero emissions scenario may be possible in this century. • We revealed energy supply structure under the zero emissions scenarios. - Abstract: This study investigated zero emissions scenarios with following two originalities compared to various existing studies. One is that we based on A1T society of SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenario) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) compared to existing studies on those of B1 or B2. The second one is that various innovative technologies were considered and incorporated, such as biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and advanced nuclear technologies including hydrogen or synfuel production. We conducted global modeling over the period 2010–2150 in which energy, materials, and biomass and foods supply costs were minimized by linear programming. We found following features of energy supply structure in A1T scenario. Since the electric demand in A1T scenario in 2100 is two times larger than the others, (1) renewable energy which solely produce electricity, nuclear, and fossil energy with CCS (FECCS) especially coal are main sources of electricity, (2) renewable which can supply heat, namely BECCS and geothermal, satisfies the sector, and (3) hydrogen from coal is introduced in transport sector. It can be concluded that the zero emission energy systems with global economic growth will be possible, by development and deployment of ambitious advanced energy technologies.

Biomass Energy for Transport and Electricity: Large scale utilization under low CO2 concentration scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Luckow, Patrick; Wise, Marshall A.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.

2010-01-25

This paper examines the potential role of large scale, dedicated commercial biomass energy systems under global climate policies designed to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of CO2 at 400ppm and 450ppm. We use an integrated assessment model of energy and agriculture systems to show that, given a climate policy in which terrestrial carbon is appropriately valued equally with carbon emitted from the energy system, biomass energy has the potential to be a major component of achieving these low concentration targets. The costs of processing and transporting biomass energy at much larger scales than current experience are also incorporated into the modeling. From the scenario results, 120-160 EJ/year of biomass energy is produced by midcentury and 200-250 EJ/year by the end of this century. In the first half of the century, much of this biomass is from agricultural and forest residues, but after 2050 dedicated cellulosic biomass crops become the dominant source. A key finding of this paper is the role that carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies coupled with commercial biomass energy can play in meeting stringent emissions targets. Despite the higher technology costs of CCS, the resulting negative emissions used in combination with biomass are a very important tool in controlling the cost of meeting a target, offsetting the venting of CO2 from sectors of the energy system that may be more expensive to mitigate, such as oil use in transportation. The paper also discusses the role of cellulosic ethanol and Fischer-Tropsch biomass derived transportation fuels and shows that both technologies are important contributors to liquid fuels production, with unique costs and emissions characteristics. Through application of the GCAM integrated assessment model, it becomes clear that, given CCS availability, bioenergy will be used both in electricity and transportation.

Accident scenarios triggered by lightning strike on atmospheric storage tanks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Necci, Amos; Argenti, Francesca; Landucci, Gabriele; Cozzani, Valerio

2014-01-01

Severe Natech accidents may be triggered by lightning strike affecting storage tanks containing relevant inventories of hazardous materials. The present study focused on the identification of event sequences and accident scenarios following lightning impact on atmospheric tanks. Reference event trees, validated using past accident analysis, are provided to describe the specific accident chains identified, accounting for reference protection and mitigation safety barriers usually adopted in current industrial practice. An overall methodology was outlined to allow the calculation of the expected frequencies of final scenarios following lightning impact on atmospheric storage tanks, taking into account the expected performance of available safety barriers. The methodology was applied to a case study in order to better understand the data that may be obtained and their importance in the framework of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) and of the risk management of industrial facilities with respect to external hazards due to natural events. - Highlights: • Event sequences following lightning impact on atmospheric tanks were identified. • Reference event trees including standard safety barriers were obtained. • Safety barriers applied in industrial practice were assessed to quantify event trees. • Frequencies of final scenarios following lightning impact on tanks were calculated. • Natech scenarios caused by lightning have an important influence on risk profiles

Socio-economic Scenarios in Climate Assessments (IC11). Synthesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Drunen, M.; Berkhout, F.

2011-09-01

It is widely recognised that projections of social and economic futures are circumscribed by irreducible uncertainties and ignorance. A common analytical response is to develop scenarios that map a range of alternative possible outcomes. The application of scenarios in climate assessments in the Netherlands was investigated in this report, focusing on the use of the socio-economic scenarios 'Welvaart en Leefomgeving' (WLO - The Future of the Dutch Built Environment). This research was carried out within the Climate Changes Spatial Planning (CcSP) programme. WLO scenarios have been applied in climate assessment studies. WLO generates figures and data that are useful. Nevertheless we encountered several CcSP projects that did not apply any socio-economic scenarios, whilst this seemed necessary based on their objectives. In general, climate assessments make little sense if socio-economic developments are not taken into account. Interestingly, some of the studies that did apply socio-economic scenarios, picked only one or two of the scenarios generated by WLO. From a theoretical point of view this selective 'shopping' may lead to a tunnel vision, because it is impossible to estimate which scenario is more probable than the others. At the other hand it is often impractical to explore all four scenarios. The time horizon of WLO was in several cases too short for climate assessments. As it is probable that the structure of society has changed significantly by 2040, it is difficult to quantitatively support the storylines as was done in WLO, because many model assumptions are not correct anymore. Possibly it is better to take a backcasting approach for the second half of the century for the purpose of the CcSP programme. The two case studies described in this report provide examples of good practice that are likely to be useful in future projects that deal with scenarios. In addition, this study produced an interactive website (www.climatescenarios.nl) that provides key

Can the household sector reduce global warming mitigation costs? sensitivity to key parameters in a TIMES techno-economic energy model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Astudillo, Miguel F.; Vaillancourt, Kathleen; Pineau, Pierre-Olivier; Amor, Ben

2017-01-01

Highlights: •An energy system model of Quebec is combined with building simulation software. •Greenhouse gas emission reductions efforts increase annual electricity peak demand. •Alternative heating tech. And building envelopes can effectively reduce peak demand. •Denser urban developments massively reduced costs of global warming mitigation. •CO 2 emissions from hydropower reservoirs are relevant in global warming mitigation. -- Abstract: The transition to low carbon societies may increase peak electricity demand, which can be costly to supply with renewable energy, whose availability is uncertain. Buildings are often the main cause of peak demand, and they are believed to hold a large unrealised energy-efficiency potential. If realised, this potential could considerably mitigate the transition costs to low carbon societies, reducing average and peak electricity demands. We explore this potential in several cost-optimal global warming (GW) mitigation scenarios using a multi-sector TIMES energy system model of the province of Quebec for the period 2011–2050. Heating and conservation measures in the residential sector are modelled using building simulations and parameters’ values from the literature. The intra-annual availability of renewable energy and electricity imports is derived from time-series analysis. Additionally, the influence of key parameters such as the projections of primary energy demand and emissions from reservoir impoundment is evaluated. Finally, we discuss some of the barriers that could hamper the energy transition and how they can be overcome. Results indicate that peak demand would rise by 30% due to GW mitigation efforts, but it can be effectively reduced by interventions in the residential sector. Heat pumps are the most cost effective heating technology, despite their lower efficiencies in cold climates. Better-insulated building envelopes have an important role in new houses, reducing by 14% the GW mitigation costs and

Estimating GHG emission mitigation supply curves of large-scale biomass use on a country level

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dornburg, Veronika; Dam, Jinke van; Faaij, Andre

2007-01-01

This study evaluates the possible influences of a large-scale introduction of biomass material and energy systems and their market volumes on land, material and energy market prices and their feedback to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission mitigation costs. GHG emission mitigation supply curves for large-scale biomass use were compiled using a methodology that combines a bottom-up analysis of biomass applications, biomass cost supply curves and market prices of land, biomaterials and bioenergy carriers. These market prices depend on the scale of biomass use and the market volume of materials and energy carriers and were estimated using own-price elasticities of demand. The methodology was demonstrated for a case study of Poland in the year 2015 applying different scenarios on economic development and trade in Europe. For the key technologies considered, i.e. medium density fibreboard, poly lactic acid, electricity and methanol production, GHG emission mitigation costs increase strongly with the scale of biomass production. Large-scale introduction of biomass use decreases the GHG emission reduction potential at costs below 50 Euro /Mg CO 2eq with about 13-70% depending on the scenario. Biomaterial production accounts for only a small part of this GHG emission reduction potential due to relatively small material markets and the subsequent strong decrease of biomaterial market prices at large scale of production. GHG emission mitigation costs depend strongly on biomass supply curves, own-price elasticity of land and market volumes of bioenergy carriers. The analysis shows that these influences should be taken into account for developing biomass implementations strategies

Applying the global RCP-SSP-SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Kebede, Abiy S; Nicholls, Robert J; Allan, Andrew; Arto, Iñaki; Cazcarro, Ignacio; Fernandes, Jose A; Hill, Chris T; Hutton, Craig W; Kay, Susan; Lázár, Attila N; Macadam, Ian; Palmer, Matthew; Suckall, Natalie; Tompkins, Emma L; Vincent, Katharine; Whitehead, Paul W

2018-09-01

To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA 1 project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision

The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario - A Story That Southern Californians Are Writing

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, Suzanne; Cox, Dale; Jones, Lucile; Bernknopf, Richard; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

2008-01-01

resulting losses are one realistic outcome, deliberately not a worst-case scenario, rather one worth preparing for and mitigating against. Decades of improving the life-safety requirements in building codes have greatly reduced the risk of death in earthquakes, yet southern California's economic and social systems are still vulnerable to large-scale disruptions. Because of this, the ShakeOut Scenario earthquake would dramatically alter the nature of the southern California community. Fortunately, steps can be taken now that can change that outcome and repay any costs many times over. The ShakeOut Scenario is the first public product of the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, created to show how hazards science can increase a community's resiliency to natural disasters through improved planning, mitigation, and response.

The 21st Century as Whose Century?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Scott

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Macro-analysis and East-West encounter are shown through consideration of objective yet subjective constructed concepts for the international system and international economy in the 21st century. Three paradigms are considered, namely the 21st century as the ‘Pacific Century’, as ‘China’s Century’ and as the ‘Asian Century’. Overlaps are shown between these three paradigms, as also developments in time, and gradually shift in geographical location. The ‘Pacific Century’, and its associated Rimspeak, was the paradigm emerging in the late 1970s, knitting together America’s West Coast and the Japanese economy. By the late 1980s this was already shifting to talk of the 21st century likely to be an ‘Asian Century’ model, mark-1, based on the Pacific Asia dynamism shown by the ‘Asian Tigers’ and Japan. However, the Asian financial crash of 1997-8, and the economic downturn in Japan, meant that such an ‘Asian Century’ seemed premature as the 21st century arrived. Instead, it was China’s economic growth that seemed most evident, and with it the concept of the 21st century as ‘China’s Century’. However, in turn that has already been modified during the first decade of the century by India’s arrival as a rapidly growing economy. Consequently the 21st century as ‘China’s Century’ and as ‘India’s Century’ has been combined into talk of an ‘Asian Century’, mark-2.

Climate Change and Aedes Vectors: 21st Century Projections for Dengue Transmission in Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jing Liu-Helmersson

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Warming temperatures may increase the geographic spread of vector-borne diseases into temperate areas. Although a tropical mosquito-borne viral disease, a dengue outbreak occurred in Madeira, Portugal, in 2012; the first in Europe since 1920s. This outbreak emphasizes the potential for dengue re-emergence in Europe given changing climates. We present estimates of dengue epidemic potential using vectorial capacity (VC based on historic and projected temperature (1901–2099. VC indicates the vectors' ability to spread disease among humans. We calculated temperature-dependent VC for Europe, highlighting 10 European cities and three non-European reference cities. Compared with the tropics, Europe shows pronounced seasonality and geographical heterogeneity. Although low, VC during summer is currently sufficient for dengue outbreaks in Southern Europe to commence–if sufficient vector populations (either Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus were active and virus were introduced. Under various climate change scenarios, the seasonal peak and time window for dengue epidemic potential increases during the 21st century. Our study maps dengue epidemic potential in Europe and identifies seasonal time windows when major cities are most conducive for dengue transmission from 1901 to 2099. Our findings illustrate, that besides vector control, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions crucially reduces the future epidemic potential of dengue in Europe.

Modeling the Projected Changes of River Flow in Central Vietnam under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tuan B. Le

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Recent studies by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC indicate that Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change. The variability of climate in this region, characterized by large fluctuations in precipitation and temperature, has caused significant changes in surface water resources. This study aims to project the impact of climate change on the seasonal availability of surface water of the Huong River in Central Vietnam in the twenty-first century through hydrologic simulations driven by climate model projections. To calibrate and validate the hydrologic model, the model was forced by the rain gage-based gridded Asian Precipitation–Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APHRODITE V1003R1 Monsoon Asia precipitation data along with observed temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation data from local weather stations. The simulated discharge was compared to observations for the period from 1951 until present. Three Global Climate Models (GCMs ECHAM5-OM, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 integrated into Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG stochastic weather generator were run for three IPCC–Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC-SRES emissions scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 to simulate future climate conditions. The hydrologic model simulated the Huong River discharge for each IPCC-SRES scenario. Simulation results under the three GCMs generally indicate an increase in summer and fall river discharge during the twenty-first century in A2 and B1 scenarios. For A1B scenario, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 models project a decrease in river discharge from present to the 2051–2080 period and then increase until the 2071–2100 period while ECHAM5-OM model produces opposite projection that discharge will increase until the 2051–2080 period and then decrease for the rest of the century. Water management

Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

2014-04-15

Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO{sub 2} emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050

Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

2014-04-01

Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO 2 emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050 from

The distribution and magnitude of emissions mitigation costs in climate stabilization under less than perfect international cooperation: SGM results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Calvin, Katherine; Patel, Pralit; Fawcett, Allen; Clarke, Leon; Fisher-Vanden, Karen; Edmonds, Jae; Kim, Son H.; Sands, Ron; Wise, Marshall

2009-01-01

The EMF22 Transition Scenario subgroup explores the implications of delayed accession on limiting climate change to various radiative forcing levels. This paper focuses on the cost of limiting radiative forcing and the role that industrial leakage plays in scenarios of delayed accession. We find that delayed participation shifts the cost burden toward regions that take early action and away from regions that undertake mitigation later. However, the inefficiencies introduced by delay are so great that present discounted costs are higher in the delayed scenario for regions that delay as well as for regions taking early actions. An important element of these inefficiencies is industrial emissions leakage, that is non-participating regions increase their emissions relative to the reference case. In aggregate, industrial leakage rates are less than 10% if all regions of the world begin emissions mitigation by 2050-higher in carbon-intensive sectors and lower in low-carbon-intensity sectors. Additionally, we consider the implication of technology on carbon prices, the feasibility of limiting radiative forcing to low levels, and the incentives to overshoot the radiative forcing limit.

African languages and the identity question in the 21st century ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

One of the features of this development is the de-ethicising of citizenship around the notion of an inclusive South-Africanship. An increased use of English as lingua franca in public domains raises questions about the position of African languages in the 21st century, given the likelihood that the developing scenario is not in ...

Heterogeneous world model and collaborative scenarios of transition to globally sustainable nuclear energy systems - 15483

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuznetsov, V.; Fesenko, G.

2015-01-01

The International Atomic Energy Agency's International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) is to help ensure that nuclear energy is available to contribute to meeting global energy needs of the 21. century in a sustainable manner. The INPRO task titled 'Global scenarios' is to develop global and regional nuclear energy scenarios that lead to a global vision of sustainable nuclear energy in the 21. century. Results of multiple studies show that the criteria for developing sustainable nuclear energy cannot be met without innovations in reactor and nuclear fuel cycle technologies. Combining different reactor types and associated fuel chains creates a multiplicity of nuclear energy system arrangements potentially contributing to global sustainability of nuclear energy. In this, cooperation among countries having different policy regarding fuel cycle back end would be essential to bring sustainability benefits from innovations in technology to all interested users. INPRO has developed heterogeneous global model to capture countries' different policies regarding the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle in regional and global scenarios of nuclear energy evolution and applied in a number of studies performed by participants of the project. This paper will highlight the model and major conclusions obtained in the studies. (authors)

Development of burning plasma and advanced scenarios in the DIII-D tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luce, T.C.

2005-01-01

Significant progress in the development of burning plasma scenarios, steady-state scenarios at high fusion performance, and basic tokamak physics has been made by the DIII-D Team. Discharges similar to the ITER baseline scenario have demonstrated normalized fusion performance nearly 50% higher than required for Q = 10 in ITER, under stationary conditions. Discharges that extrapolate to Q ∼ 10 for longer than one hour in ITER at reduced current have also been demonstrated in DIII-D under stationary conditions. Proof of high fusion performance with full noninductive operation has been obtained. Underlying this work are studies validating approaches to confinement extrapolation, disruption avoidance and mitigation, tritium retention, ELM avoidance, and operation above the no-wall pressure limit. In addition, the unique capabilities of the DIII-D facility have advanced studies of the sawtooth instability with unprecedented time and space resolution, threshold behavior in the electron heat transport, and rotation in plasmas in the absence of external torque. (author)

High estimates of supply constrained emissions scenarios for long-term climate risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, James D.; Mohr, Steve H.; Myers, Baden R.; Nel, Willem P.

2012-01-01

The simulated effects of anthropogenic global warming have become important in many fields and most models agree that significant impacts are becoming unavoidable in the face of slow action. Improvements to model accuracy rely primarily on the refinement of parameter sensitivities and on plausible future carbon emissions trajectories. Carbon emissions are the leading cause of global warming, yet current considerations of future emissions do not consider structural limits to fossil fuel supply, invoking a wide range of uncertainty. Moreover, outdated assumptions regarding the future abundance of fossil energy could contribute to misleading projections of both economic growth and climate change vulnerability. Here we present an easily replicable mathematical model that considers fundamental supply-side constraints and demonstrate its use in a stochastic analysis to produce a theoretical upper limit to future emissions. The results show a significant reduction in prior uncertainty around projected long term emissions, and even assuming high estimates of all fossil fuel resources and high growth of unconventional production, cumulative emissions tend to align to the current medium emissions scenarios in the second half of this century. This significant finding provides much-needed guidance on developing relevant emissions scenarios for long term climate change impact studies. - Highlights: ► GHG emissions from conventional and unconventional fossil fuels modelled nationally. ► Assuming worst-case: large resource, high growth, rapid uptake of unconventional. ► Long-term cumulative emissions align well with the SRES medium emissions scenario. ► High emissions are unlikely to be sustained through the second half of this century. ► Model designed to be easily extended to test other scenarios e.g. energy shortages.

Cost-Risk Trade-off of Solar Radiation Management and Mitigation under Probabilistic Information on Climate Sensitivity

Science.gov (United States)

Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi; Roshan, Elnaz; Held, Hermann

2017-04-01

In principle solar radiation management (SRM) offers an option to ameliorate anthropogenic temperature rise. However we cannot expect it to simultaneously compensate for anthropogenic changes in further climate variables in a perfect manner. Here, we ask to what extent a proponent of the 2°C-temperature target would apply SRM in conjunction with mitigation in view of global or regional disparities in precipitation changes. We apply cost-risk analysis (CRA), which is a decision analytic framework that makes a trade-off between the expected welfare-loss from climate policy costs and the climate risks from transgressing a climate target. Here, in both global-scale and 'Giorgi'-regional-scale analyses, we evaluate the optimal mixture of SRM and mitigation under probabilistic information about climate sensitivity. To do so, we generalize CRA for the sake of including not only temperature risk, but also globally aggregated and regionally disaggregated precipitation risks. Social welfare is maximized for the following three valuation scenarios: temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and equally weighted both-risks. For now, the Giorgi regions are treated by equal weight. We find that for regionally differentiated precipitation targets, the usage of SRM will be comparably more restricted. In the course of time, a cooling of up to 1.3°C can be attributed to SRM for the latter scenario and for a median climate sensitivity of 3°C (for a global target only, this number reduces by 0.5°C). Our results indicate that although SRM would almost completely substitute for mitigation in the globally aggregated analysis, it only saves 70% to 75% of the welfare-loss compared to a purely mitigation-based analysis (from economic costs and climate risks, approximately 4% in terms of BGE) when considering regional precipitation risks in precipitation-risk-only and both-risks scenarios. It remains to be shown how the inclusion of further risks or different regional weights would

The effect of climate change, population distribution, and climate mitigation on building energy use in the U.S. and China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhou, Yuyu; Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.

2013-08-01

A changing climate will affect the energy system in a number of ways, one of which is through changes in demands for heating and cooling in buildings. Understanding the potential effect of climate on heating and cooling demands must take into account not only the manner in which the building sector might evolve over time - including, for example, movements from rural to urban environments in developing countries - but also important uncertainty about the nature of climate change itself and the growth and movements of populations over time. In this study, we explored the uncertainty in climate change impacts on heating and cooling by constructing estimates of heating and cooling degree days for both a reference (no-policy) scenario and a climate mitigation scenario built from 0.5 degree latitude by 0.5 degree longitude resolution output from three different Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three gridded scenarios of population distribution. The implications that changing climate and population distribution might have for building energy consumption in the U.S. and China were then explored by using the heating and cooling degree days results as inputs to a detailed, building energy model, nested in the long-term global integrated assessment framework, Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Across the climate models and population distribution scenarios, the results indicate that unabated climate change would cause total final energy consumption to decrease modestly in both U.S. and China buildings by the end of the century, as decreased heating consumption is more than balanced by increased cooling using primarily electricity. However, the results also indicate that when indirect emissions from the power sector are also taken into account, climate change may have negligible effect on building sector CO2 emissions in the two countries. The variation in results due to variation of population distribution is noticeably smaller than variation due to the use of different

Development scenario for laser fusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maniscalco, J.A.; Hovingh, J.; Buntzen, R.R.

1976-01-01

This scenario proposes establishment of test and engineering facilities to (1) investigate the technological problems associated with laser fusion, (2) demonstrate fissile fuel production, and (3) demonstrate competitive electrical power production. Such facilities would be major milestones along the road to a laser-fusion power economy. The relevant engineering and economic aspects of each of these research and development facilities are discussed. Pellet design and gain predictions corresponding to the most promising laser systems are presented for each plant. The results show that laser fusion has the potential to make a significant contribution to our energy needs. Beginning in the early 1990's, this new technology could be used to produce fissile fuel, and after the turn of the century it could be used to generate electrical power

Benefits of interrelationships between climate change mitigation and adaptation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Lea Ravnkilde; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

2014-01-01

and product 2: climate change adaptation. The production possibilities frontier (PPF) summarises the production benefits of the two products. The case study of the paper is the replanting of mangrove forests in the coastal wetland areas of Peam Krasaob Wildlife Sanctuary in Cambodia. The benefits of climate...... benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptation are tested under different climate change scenarios, seeing as the impact and frequency of storms can have a significant effect on coastal wetland areas and the replanting of the mangrove forests and therefore also on the joint benefits of climate change...

Mitigating residential exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke

Science.gov (United States)

Klepeis, Neil E.; Nazaroff, William W.

In a companion paper, we used a simulation model to explore secondhand tobacco smoke (SHS) exposures for typical conditions in residences. In the current paper, we extend this analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of physical mitigation approaches in reducing nonsmokers' exposure to airborne SHS particulate matter in a hypothetical 6-zone house. Measures investigated included closing doors or opening windows in response to smoking activity, modifying location patterns to segregate the nonsmoker and the active smoker, and operating particle filtration devices. We first performed 24 scripted simulation trials using hypothetical patterns of occupant location. We then performed cohort simulation trials across 25 mitigation scenarios using over 1000 pairs of nonsmoker and smoker time-location patterns that were selected from a survey of human activity patterns in US homes. We limited cohort pairs to cases where more than 10 cigarettes were smoked indoors at home each day and the nonsmoker was at home for more than two thirds of the day. We evaluated the effectiveness of each mitigation approach by examining its impact on the simulated frequency distribution of residential SHS particle exposure. The two most effective strategies were the isolation of the smoker in a closed room with an open window, and a ban on smoking whenever the nonsmoker was at home. The use of open windows to supply local or cross ventilation, or the operation of portable filtration devices in smoking rooms, provided moderate exposure reductions. Closed doors, by themselves, were not effective.

[Carbon capture and storage (CCS) and its potential role to mitigate carbon emission in China].

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Wen-Ying; Wu, Zong-Xin; Wang, Wei-Zhong

2007-06-01

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has been widely recognized as one of the options to mitigate carbon emission to eventually stabilize carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere. Three parts of CCS, which are carbon capture, transport, and storage are assessed in this paper, covering comparisons of techno-economic parameters for different carbon capture technologies, comparisons of storage mechanism, capacity and cost for various storage formations, and etc. In addition, the role of CCS to mitigate global carbon emission is introduced. Finally, China MARKAL model is updated to include various CCS technologies, especially indirect coal liquefaction and poly-generation technologies with CCS, in order to consider carbon emission reduction as well as energy security issue. The model is used to generate different scenarios to study potential role of CCS to mitigate carbon emissions by 2050 in China. It is concluded that application of CCS can decrease marginal abatement cost and the decrease rate can reach 45% for the emission reduction rate of 50%, and it can lessen the dependence on nuclear power development for stringent carbon constrains. Moreover, coal resources can be cleanly used for longer time with CCS, e.g., for the scenario C70, coal share in the primary energy consumption by 2050 will increase from 10% when without CCS to 30% when with CCS. Therefore, China should pay attention to CCS R&D activities and to developing demonstration projects.

Modelling dynamics of Jakobshavn Isbræ and its contribution to sea level rise over the past and future century

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Muresan, Ioana Stefania

ocean temperature scenarios and two atmospheric scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) asclimate forcing. In terms of mass change, I found that from the end of the LIA until the end of the 21st century JI’s mass change was and will remain predominately dynamically controlled (between 74 % and 86 % of the mass...

Recent sea surface temperature trends and future scenarios for the Mediterranean Sea:

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohamed Shaltout

2014-06-01

Full Text Available We analyse recent Mediterranean Sea surface temperatures (SSTs and their response to global change using 1/4-degree gridded advanced very-high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR daily SST data, 1982-2012. These data indicate significant annual warming (from 0.24°C decade-1 west of the Strait of Gibraltar to 0.51°C decade-1 over the Black Sea and significant spatial variation in annual average SST (from 15ºC over the Black Sea to 21°C over the Levantine sub-basin. Ensemble mean scenarios indicate that the study area SST may experience significant warming, peaking at 2.6°C century-1 in the Representative Concentration Pathways 85 (RCP85 scenario.

The role of biomass and CCS in China in a climate mitigation perspective

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lüthje, Mikael; Karlsson, Kenneth Bernard; Gregg, Jay Sterling

2011-01-01

As the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gasses (GHGs), China plays a central role in the suite of options for climate change mitigation. To analyze the importance of biomass and carbon capture and storage (CCS) availability in China, varying levels of these parameters are created and then gl......As the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gasses (GHGs), China plays a central role in the suite of options for climate change mitigation. To analyze the importance of biomass and carbon capture and storage (CCS) availability in China, varying levels of these parameters are created...... and then global climate scenarios are simulated using TIAM (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model). TIAM is a 16-region global energy system optimization model that includes a climate module that calculates the global concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere. We analyze the potential for using biomass, CCS......, and bioenergy CCS (BECCS) in China under the constraint of meeting a climate stabilization target such that dangerous climate change (as defined by the Copenhagen Accord) is avoided. When considering hypothetical scenarios where GHG emissions are constrained, China consumes all available domestic biomass...

Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

Science.gov (United States)

Carlson, Henrik; Caballero, Rodrigo

2017-08-01

Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario) and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2-thin clouds or LCTC scenario) . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has ˜ 11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

Vision of Nuclear Power Options for XXI Century

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Adamov, E.; Muraviev, E.; Orlov, V.

2007-07-01

This work once again brings to attention the fundamental ideas of the long-term nuclear power development on the basis of the new generation of Fast neutron Reactors, naturally safe, economically attractive and employing the proliferation-resistant and low-waste fuel cycle. The Universal System Model (USM-1), new analytical research tool recently developed in N.A. Dollezhal Research and Design Institute of Power Engineering (Moscow, Russia) has been used to evaluate several scenarios (including traditional ones) of the World nuclear power development for electricity production within the XXI century. For scenarios comparison 3 criteria were used: the levelized cost of electricity, the fuel supply security (in terms of natural uranium total consumption and prospects for further fuel balance), and the potential hazard of radioactive wastes. The clear advantage of scenario with the most complete realization of the new Fast Reactors technology potential is revealed. The authors strongly believe that the prospects of this new technology worldwide implementation deserve the due attention of responsible governments and international organizations. 2 Tables, 13 Figures, 10 References. (auth)

Health co-benefits from air pollution and mitigation costs of the Paris Agreement: a modelling study.

Science.gov (United States)

Markandya, Anil; Sampedro, Jon; Smith, Steven J; Van Dingenen, Rita; Pizarro-Irizar, Cristina; Arto, Iñaki; González-Eguino, Mikel

2018-03-01

Although the co-benefits from addressing problems related to both climate change and air pollution have been recognised, there is not much evidence comparing the mitigation costs and economic benefits of air pollution reduction for alternative approaches to meeting greenhouse gas targets. We analysed the extent to which health co-benefits would compensate the mitigation cost of achieving the targets of the Paris climate agreement (2°C and 1·5°C) under different scenarios in which the emissions abatement effort is shared between countries in accordance with three established equity criteria. Our study had three stages. First, we used an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), to investigate the emission (greenhouse gases and air pollutants) pathways and abatement costs of a set of scenarios with varying temperature objectives (nationally determined contributions, 2°C, or 1·5°C) and approaches to the distribution of climate change methods (capability, constant emission ratios, and equal per capita). The resulting emissions pathways were transferred to an air quality model (TM5-FASST) to estimate the concentrations of particulate matter and ozone in the atmosphere and the resulting associated premature deaths and morbidity. We then applied a monetary value to these health impacts by use of a term called the value of statistical life and compared these values with those of the mitigation costs calculated from GCAM, both globally and regionally. Our analysis looked forward to 2050 in accordance with the socioeconomic narrative Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2. The health co-benefits substantially outweighed the policy cost of achieving the target for all of the scenarios that we analysed. In some of the mitigation strategies, the median co-benefits were double the median costs at a global level. The ratio of health co-benefit to mitigation cost ranged from 1·4 to 2·45, depending on the scenario. At the regional level, the costs of

Assessment of human thermal comfort and mitigation measures in different urban climatotopes

Science.gov (United States)

Müller, N.; Kuttler, W.

2012-04-01

This study analyses thermal comfort in the model city of Oberhausen as an example for the densely populated metropolitan region Ruhr, Germany. As thermal loads increase due to climate change negative impacts especially for city dwellers will arise. Therefore mitigation strategies should be developed and considered in urban planning today to prevent future thermal stress. The method consists of the combination of in-situ measurements and numerical model simulations. So in a first step the actual thermal situation is determined and then possible mitigation strategies are derived. A measuring network was installed in eight climatotopes for a one year period recording air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and wind direction. Based on these parameters the human thermal comfort in terms of physiological equivalent temperature (PET) was calculated by RayMan Pro software. Thus the human comfort of different climatotopes was determined. Heat stress in different land uses varies, so excess thermal loads in urban areas could be detected. Based on the measuring results mitigation strategies were developed, such as increasing areas with high evaporation capacity (green areas and water bodies). These strategies were implemented as different plan scenarios in the microscale urban climate model ENVI-met. The best measure should be identified by comparing the range and effect of these scenarios. Simulations were run in three of the eight climatotopes (city center, suburban and open land site) to analyse the effectiveness of the mitigation strategies in several land use structures. These cover the range of values of all eight climatotopes and therefore provide representative results. In the model area of 21 ha total, the modified section in the different plan scenarios was 1 ha. Thus the effect of small-scale changes could be analysed. Such areas can arise due to population decline and structural changes and hold conversion potential. Emphasis was also laid on analysing the

Electricity planning in Japan by 2030 through scenario analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Qi, Zhang; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

2013-01-01

Under continuing policies of the mitigation of GHG (Green House Gases) emission, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system after the Fukushima nuclear accident. The development plans of nuclear power and renewable energy - mainly PV and wind power - need to be reconsidered. Therefore, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios in 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development strategies: (1) negative nuclear power; (2) conservative nuclear power; and (3) active pursuit of nuclear power. On the other side, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering energy saving. The purpose of the study is to propose electricity supply systems with maximum renewable energy penetration under different nuclear power development strategies and demand situations through scenario analysis. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input-output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix and CO 2 emissions of the scenarios were compared and analyzed with each other and with historical data. The results show that (1) penetration level of renewable energy is subject to the share of nuclear power as base load; (2) it is very difficult to remove nuclear power absolutely from the electricity system even when a high level of penetration of renewable energy is realized; (3) high level penetration of renewable energy can reduce the dependence on nuclear and thermal power, but there is a need for more flexible power sources to absorb fluctuations; (4) CO 2 emissions reduction compared to 1990 levels can be readily achieved with the help of renewable energy, nuclear power and energy saving in 2030. This is a revised version of the paper that was published in [1]. (author)

Smart Social Networking: 21st Century Teaching and Learning Skills

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Helen B. Boholano

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Education in the 21st century highlights globalization and internationalization. Preservice teachers in the 21st century are technology savvy. To effectively engage and teach generation Z students, preservice teachers will help the educational system meet this requirement. The educational systems must be outfitted with a prerequisite of ICT resources both hardware and software, and curricula must be designed to promote a collaborative learner-centered environment to which students will relate and respond. This study determines the 21st century skills possessed by the pre-service teachers in terms of social networking. Pre-service teachers use computers in very advanced ways, but educators must remember that they still need guidance to use technology safely and effectively. Through social media the pre-service teachers can use a multitude of applications, including Web 2.0, for their projects. Smart social networking requires critical-thinking skills and the ability to integrate and evaluate real-world scenarios and authentic learning skills for validation.

Concept of Operations Evaluation for Mitigating Space Flight-Relevant Medical Issues in a Planetary Habitat

Science.gov (United States)

Barsten, Kristina; Hurst, Victor, IV; Scheuring, Richard; Baumann, David K.; Johnson-Throop, Kathy

2010-01-01

Introduction: Analogue environments assist the NASA Human Research Program (HRP) in developing capabilities to mitigate high risk issues to crew health and performance for space exploration. The Habitat Demonstration Unit (HDU) is an analogue habitat used to assess space-related products for planetary missions. The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) element at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) was tasked with developing planetary-relevant medical scenarios to evaluate the concept of operations for mitigating medical issues in such an environment. Methods: Two medical scenarios were conducted within the simulated planetary habitat with the crew executing two space flight-relevant procedures: Eye Examination with a corneal injury and Skin Laceration. Remote guidance for the crew was provided by a flight surgeon (FS) stationed at a console outside of the habitat. Audio and video data were collected to capture the communication between the crew and the FS, as well as the movements of the crew executing the procedures. Questionnaire data regarding procedure content and remote guidance performance also were collected from the crew immediately after the sessions. Results: Preliminary review of the audio, video, and questionnaire data from the two scenarios conducted within the HDU indicate that remote guidance techniques from an FS on console can help crew members within a planetary habitat mitigate planetary-relevant medical issues. The content and format of the procedures were considered concise and intuitive, respectively. Discussion: Overall, the preliminary data from the evaluation suggest that use of remote guidance techniques by a FS can help HDU crew execute space exploration-relevant medical procedures within a habitat relevant to planetary missions, however further evaluations will be needed to implement this strategy into the complete concept of operations for conducting general space medicine within similar environments

Analysis method for the design of a hydrogen mitigation system with passive autocatalytic recombiners in OPR-1000

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, C-H.; Sung, J-J.; Ha, S-J. [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co. Ltd., Central Research Inst., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yeo, I-S. [KEPCO Engineering and Construction Co. Ltd, Gyeonggi-do (Korea, Republic of)

2014-07-01

The importance of hydrogen safety in nuclear power plants has been emphasized especially after the Fukushima accident in Japan. A passive autocatalytic recombiner (PAR) is considered as a viable option for the mitigation of hydrogen risk because of its passive operation for hydrogen removal. This paper presents a licensed hydrogen analysis method of OPR-1000, a 1,000MWe Korea standardized pressurized water reactor with a large dry containment, to determine the capacity and locations of PARs for the design of a hydrogen mitigation system with PAR. Various accident scenarios have been adopted considering important event sequences from a combination of probabilistic methods, deterministic methods and sound engineering judgment. A MAAP 4.0.6+ with a multi-compartment model is used as an analysis tool with conservative hydrogen generation and removal models. The detailed analyses are performed for selected severe accident scenarios including sensitivity analysis with/without operations of various safety systems. The possibility of global flame acceleration (FA) and deflagration-to-detonation transient (DDT) are assessed with sigma (flame acceleration potential) and 7-lambda (DDT potential) criterion. It is concluded that the newly designed hydrogen mitigation system with twenty-four (24) PARs can effectively remove hydrogen in the containment atmosphere and prevent global FA and DDT. (author)

System 80+ design features for severe accident prevention and mitigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacob, M.C.; Schneider, R.E.; Finnicum, D.J.

1993-01-01

ABB-CE, in cooperation with the US Department of Energy, is working to develop and certify the System 80+ design, which is ABB-CE's standardized evolutionary Advanced Light Water Reactor (ALWR) design. It incorporates design enhancements based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) insights, guidance from the EPRI's Utility Requirements Document, and US NRC's Severe Accident Policy. Major severe accident prevention and mitigation design features of the system is discussed along with its conformance to EPRI URD guidance, as applicable. Computer simulation of a best estimate severe accident scenario is presented to illustrate the acceptable containment performance of the design. It is concluded that by considering severe accident prevention and mitigation early in the design process, the System 80+ design represents a robust plant design that has low core damage frequencies, low containment conditional failure probabilities, and acceptable deterministic containment performance under severe accident conditions

Break location influence in pressure vessel SBLOCA scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Querol, Andrea; Gallardo, Sergio; Verdú, Gumersindo, E-mail: anquevi@upv.es, E-mail: sergalbe@iqn.upv.es, E-mail: gverdu@iqn.upv.es [Instituto Universitario de Seguridad Industrial, Radiofísica y Medioambiental (ISIRYM), Universitat Politècnica de València (Spain)

2017-07-01

The inspections performed in Davis Besse and in the South Texas Project Unit-I reactors pointed out safety issues regarding the structural integrity of the Pressure Vessel (PV). In these inspections, two anomalies were found: a wall thinning and degradation in the PV upper head of the Davis Besse reactor and a small amount of residue around of two instrument-tube penetration nozzles located in the PV lower plenum of the South Texas Project Unit-I reactor. The evolution of these defects could have resulted in Small Break Loss-Of-Coolant Accidents (SBLOCA) if they had not been detected in time. In this frame, the OECD/NEA considered the necessity to simulate these accidental sequences in the OECD/NEA ROSA Project using the Large Scale Test Facility (LSTF). This work is focused in simulating different hypothetical accidental scenarios in the PV using the thermalhydraulic code TRACE5. These simulations allow studying the break localization influence in the transient and the effectiveness of the accident management (AM) actions considered mitigating the consequences of these hypothetical accidental scenarios. (author)

Mitigation of fire damage and escalation by fireproofing: A risk-based strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tugnoli, Alessandro; Cozzani, Valerio; Di Padova, Annamaria; Barbaresi, Tiziana; Tallone, Fabrizio

2012-01-01

Passive fire protection by the application of fireproofing materials is a crucial safety barrier in the prevention of the escalation of fire scenarios. Fireproofing improves the capacity of process items and of support structures to maintain their structural integrity during a fire, preventing or at least delaying the collapse of structural elements. Maintenance and cost issues require, however, to apply such protection only where an actual risk of severe fire scenarios is present. Available methodologies for fireproofing application in on-shore installation do not consider the effect of jet-fires. In the present study, a risk-based methodology aimed at the protection from both pool fire and jet fire escalation was developed. The procedure addresses both the prevention of domino effect and the mitigation of asset damage due to the primary fire scenario. The method is mainly oriented to early design application, allowing the identification of fireproofing zones in the initial phases of lay-out definition.

Can re-regulation reservoirs and batteries cost-effectively mitigate sub-daily hydropeaking?

Science.gov (United States)

Haas, J.; Nowak, W.; Anindito, Y.; Olivares, M. A.

2017-12-01

To compensate for mismatches between generation and load, hydropower plants frequently operate in strong hydropeaking schemes, which is harmful to the downstream ecosystem. Furthermore, new power market structures and variable renewable systems may exacerbate this behavior. Ecological constraints (minimum flows, maximum ramps) are frequently used to mitigate hydropeaking, but these stand in direct tradeoff with the operational flexibility required for integrating renewable technologies. Fortunately, there are also physical methods (i.e. re-regulation reservoirs and batteries) but to date, there are no studies about their cost-effectiveness for hydropeaking mitigation. This study aims to fill that gap. For this, we formulate an hourly mixed-integer linear optimization model to plan the weekly operation of a hydro-thermal-renewable power system from southern Chile. The opportunity cost of water (needed for this weekly scheduling) is obtained from a mid-term programming solved with dynamic programming. We compare the current (unconstrained) hydropower operation with an ecologically constrained operation. The resulting cost increase is then contrasted with the annual payments necessary for the physical hydropeaking mitigation options. For highly constrained operations, both re-regulation reservoirs and batteries show to be economically attractive for hydropeaking mitigation. For intermediate constrained scenarios, re-regulation reservoirs are still economic, whereas batteries can be a viable solution only if they become cheaper in future. Given current cost projections, their break-even point (for hydropeaking mitigation) is expected within the next ten years. Finally, less stringent hydropeaking constraints do not justify physical mitigation measures, as the necessary flexibility can be provided by other power plants of the system.

Is wartime mobilisation a suitable policy model for rapid national climate mitigation?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delina, Laurence L.; Diesendorf, Mark

2013-01-01

Climate science suggests that, to have a high probability of limiting global warming to an average temperature increase of 2 °C, global greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2020 and be reduced to close to zero by 2040. However, the current trend is heading towards at least 4 °C by 2100 and little effective action is being taken. This paper commences the process of developing contingency plans for a scenario in which a sudden major global climate impact galvanises governments to implement emergency climate mitigation targets and programs. Climate activists assert that rapid mitigation is feasible, invoking the scale and scope of wartime mobilisation strategies. This paper draws upon historical accounts of social, technological and economic restructurings in several countries during World War 2 in order to investigate potential applications of wartime experience to radical, rigorous and rapid climate mitigation strategies. We focus on the energy sector, the biggest single contributor to global climate change, in developed and rapidly developing countries. We find that, while wartime experience suggests some potential strategies for rapid climate mitigation in the areas of finance and labour, it also has severe limitations, resulting from its lack of democratic processes. - Highlights: • The paper explores the strengths and weaknesses of using wartime experience as a model for rapid climate mitigation. • Wartime experience suggests some potential strategies for rapid climate mitigation in the areas of finance and labour. • Wartime experience also has severe limitations, resulting from its lack of democratic processes

Assessment of Clmate Change Mitigation Strategies for the Road Transport Sector of India

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, N.; Mishra, T.; Banerjee, R.

2017-12-01

India is one of the fastest growing major economies of the world. It imports three quarters of its oil demand, making transport sector major contributor of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. 40% of oil consumption in India comes from transport sector and over 90% of energy demand is from road transport sector. This has led to serious increase in CO2 emission and concentration of air pollutants in India. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), transport can play a crucial role for mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, assessment of appropriate mitigation policies is required for emission reduction and cost benefit potential. The present study aims to estimate CO2, SO2, PM and NOx emissions from the road transport sector for the base year (2014) and target year (2030) by applying bottom up emission inventory model. Effectiveness of different mitigation strategies like inclusion of natural gas as alternate fuel, penetration of electric vehicle as alternate vehicle, improvement of fuel efficiency and increase share of public transport is evaluated for the target year. Emission reduction achieved from each mitigation strategies in the target year (2030) is compared with the business as usual scenario for the same year. To obtain cost benefit analysis, marginal abatement cost for each mitigation strategy is estimated. The study evaluates mitigation strategies not only on the basis of emission reduction potential but also on their cost saving potential.

Large fire scenarios in relation to sabotage of nuclear installations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Contri, P.; Guerpinar, A.; ); Schneider, U.

2005-01-01

The analyses of sabotage scenarios carried out in recent years identified two major damaging mechanisms associated with such scenarios, namely: the mechanical interaction of solid bodies or pressure waves with the installations and the fire-related effects from burning substances. While the former effect may be addressed by available analytical tools developed for accidental scenarios, the latter deserves a new, specific engineering effort. In fact, all nuclear facilities are designed in relation to accidental fires; even so, they need to be assessed in relation to sabotage induced fire scenarios due to the special characteristics of such scenarios, not addressed by the current engineering practice for the design of nuclear installations. Conventional fire hazard analysis is based on the hypothesis of the presence of combustible materials in the buildings and limited number of contemporaneous sources of fire. In addition, conventional fire safety assessment relies upon the presence of mitigation measures and fire related operational procedures. In a sabotage event the validity of all these assumptions need to be checked and if the assumptions cannot be supported, then the analysis should be revised and other alternatives of protection should be developed. Also the implementation of emergency planning should be reviewed to take account of this concern. This paper collects state-of-the-art experience from some Countries, which represents the background information for the development of new IAEA documents in this field. The paper reviews how the current design practice for nuclear installations can cope with large fire scenarios caused by malevolent actions and provides recommendations to designers and operators on how to address these issues in a reasonable framework. (authors)

A multi-disciplinary assessment of operator action time for mitigating a postulated accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morgan, C.D.; Fields, C.C.; Hightower, N.T. III; Buczek, J.A.; Jenkins, T.B.; Swanson, P.J.

1992-01-01

This report discusses mitigation of the postulated Loss of Heat Sink Accident for the Savannah River Site K Reactor which requires operator action to place the plant in a water conservation configuration. In August 1991, concerns were raised about the allowances in the safety analyses for operator action times in an unpowered scenario, where several valves would be manually closed. WSRC management conservatively decided to include explicit consideration of a seismic initiator for this scenario, which introduced the additional concern that operator actions could be hindered by tritium from flange leakage. The revised analyses concluded that the powered case documented in the Safety Analysis Report is limiting and that all acceptance criteria are met

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Merriam, Eric R; Petty, J Todd; Strager, Michael P

2016-07-24

There is a critical need for tools and methodologies capable of managing aquatic systems within heavily impacted watersheds. Current efforts often fall short as a result of an inability to quantify and predict complex cumulative effects of current and future land use scenarios at relevant spatial scales. The goal of this manuscript is to provide methods for conducting a targeted watershed assessment that enables resource managers to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for use within a scenario analysis management framework. Sites are first selected for inclusion within the watershed assessment by identifying sites that fall along independent gradients and combinations of known stressors. Field and laboratory techniques are then used to obtain data on the physical, chemical, and biological effects of multiple land use activities. Multiple linear regression analysis is then used to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for predicting aquatic conditions. Lastly, methods for incorporating cumulative effects models within a scenario analysis framework for guiding management and regulatory decisions (e.g., permitting and mitigation) within actively developing watersheds are discussed and demonstrated for 2 sub-watersheds within the mountaintop mining region of central Appalachia. The watershed assessment and management approach provided herein enables resource managers to facilitate economic and development activity while protecting aquatic resources and producing opportunity for net ecological benefits through targeted remediation.

Possibilities for Near-term Bioenergy Production and GHG-Mitigation through Sustainable Intensification of Agriculture and Forestry in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Søren; Bentsen, Niclas S; Dalgaard, Tommy

2017-01-01

To mitigate climate change it is necessary to further increase the deployment of renewable energy, including bioenergy. This analysis shows how this can be achieved in Danish agriculture and forestry before 2020. The key is a sustainable intensification and we show through three scenarios how...

Methodological Issues In Forestry Mitigation Projects: A CaseStudy Of Kolar District

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ravindranath, N.H.; Murthy, I.K.; Sudha, P.; Ramprasad, V.; Nagendra, M.D.V.; Sahana, C.A.; Srivathsa, K.G.; Khan, H.

2007-06-01

There is a need to assess climate change mitigationopportunities in forest sector in India in the context of methodologicalissues such as additionality, permanence, leakage, measurement andbaseline development in formulating forestry mitigation projects. A casestudy of forestry mitigation project in semi-arid community grazing landsand farmlands in Kolar district of Karnataka, was undertaken with regardto baseline and project scenariodevelopment, estimation of carbon stockchange in the project, leakage estimation and assessment ofcost-effectiveness of mitigation projects. Further, the transaction coststo develop project, and environmental and socio-economic impact ofmitigation project was assessed.The study shows the feasibility ofestablishing baselines and project C-stock changes. Since the area haslow or insignificant biomass, leakage is not an issue. The overallmitigation potential in Kolar for a total area of 14,000 ha under variousmitigation options is 278,380 tC at a rate of 20 tC/ha for the period2005-2035, which is approximately 0.67 tC/ha/yr inclusive of harvestregimes under short rotation and long rotation mitigation options. Thetransaction cost for baseline establishment is less than a rupee/tC andfor project scenario development is about Rs. 1.5-3.75/tC. The projectenhances biodiversity and the socio-economic impact is alsosignificant.

A decision model to allocate protective safety barriers and mitigate domino effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janssens, Jochen; Talarico, Luca; Reniers, Genserik; Sörensen, Kenneth

2015-01-01

In this paper, we present a model to support decision-makers about where to locate safety barriers and mitigate the consequences of an accident triggering domino effects. Based on the features of an industrial area that may be affected by domino accidents, and knowing the characteristics of the safety barriers that can be installed to stall the fire propagation between installations, the decision model can help practitioners in their decision-making. The model can be effectively used to decide how to allocate a limited budget in terms of safety barriers. The goal is to maximize the time-to-failure of a chemical installation ensuring a worst case scenario approach. The model is mathematically stated and a flexible and effective solution approach, based on metaheuristics, is developed and tested on an illustrative case study representing a tank storage area of a chemical company. We show that a myopic optimization approach, which does not take into account knock-on effects possibly triggered by an accident, can lead to a distribution of safety barriers that are not effective in mitigating the consequences of a domino accident. Moreover, the optimal allocation of safety barriers, when domino effects are considered, may depend on the so-called cardinality of the domino effects. - Highlights: • A model to allocate safety barriers and mitigate domino effects is proposed. • The goal is to maximize the escalation time of the worst case scenario. • The model provides useful recommendations for decision makers. • A fast metaheuristic approach is proposed to solve such a complex problem. • Numerical simulations on a realistic case study are shown

Submerged macrophytes mitigate direct and indirect insecticide effects in freshwater communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Brogan, William R; Relyea, Rick A

2015-01-01

Understanding how ecological interactions mitigate the impacts of perturbations such as pesticides in biological communities is an important basic and applied question for ecologists. In aquatic ecosystems, new evidence from microcosm experiments suggests that submerged macrophytes can buffer cladocerans from pulse exposures to the widely used insecticide malathion, and that mitigation increases with macrophyte density. However, whether these results scale up to more complex aquatic communities where ecological interactions such as competition can alter toxicity is unknown. Further, macrophyte abilities to mitigate different insecticide exposure scenarios (i.e. single versus repeated pulses) have never been tested. To address these gaps, we performed a factorial mesocosm experiment examining the influence of four macrophyte treatments (0, 10, 50, or 100 Elodea Canadensis shoots planted per mesocosm) crossed with three malathion exposure scenarios (no insecticide, single pulse, repeated pulses) on aquatic communities containing zooplankton, phytoplankton, periphyton, two snail species, and larval amphibians. In the absence of macrophytes, single malathion pulses caused short-term declines in cladoceran abundance followed by their rapid recovery, which precluded any indirect effects (i.e. trophic cascades). However, repeated malathion pulses caused cladoceran extinctions, resulting in persistent phytoplankton blooms and reduced abundance of one snail species. In contrast, with macrophytes present, even at low density, malathion had no effect on any taxa. We also discovered novel effects of macrophytes on the benthic food web. In the two highest macrophyte treatments, we observed trends of reduced periphyton biomass, decreased abundance of one snail species, and decreased amphibian time to and mass at metamorphosis. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence of negative submerged macrophyte effects on amphibians, a taxa of global conservation concern. Our findings

Submerged Macrophytes Mitigate Direct and Indirect Insecticide Effects in Freshwater Communities

Science.gov (United States)

Brogan, William R.; Relyea, Rick A.

2015-01-01

Understanding how ecological interactions mitigate the impacts of perturbations such as pesticides in biological communities is an important basic and applied question for ecologists. In aquatic ecosystems, new evidence from microcosm experiments suggests that submerged macrophytes can buffer cladocerans from pulse exposures to the widely used insecticide malathion, and that mitigation increases with macrophyte density. However, whether these results scale up to more complex aquatic communities where ecological interactions such as competition can alter toxicity is unknown. Further, macrophyte abilities to mitigate different insecticide exposure scenarios (i.e. single versus repeated pulses) have never been tested. To address these gaps, we performed a factorial mesocosm experiment examining the influence of four macrophyte treatments (0, 10, 50, or 100 Elodea Canadensis shoots planted per mesocosm) crossed with three malathion exposure scenarios (no insecticide, single pulse, repeated pulses) on aquatic communities containing zooplankton, phytoplankton, periphyton, two snail species, and larval amphibians. In the absence of macrophytes, single malathion pulses caused short-term declines in cladoceran abundance followed by their rapid recovery, which precluded any indirect effects (i.e. trophic cascades). However, repeated malathion pulses caused cladoceran extinctions, resulting in persistent phytoplankton blooms and reduced abundance of one snail species. In contrast, with macrophytes present, even at low density, malathion had no effect on any taxa. We also discovered novel effects of macrophytes on the benthic food web. In the two highest macrophyte treatments, we observed trends of reduced periphyton biomass, decreased abundance of one snail species, and decreased amphibian time to and mass at metamorphosis. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence of negative submerged macrophyte effects on amphibians, a taxa of global conservation concern. Our findings

Submerged macrophytes mitigate direct and indirect insecticide effects in freshwater communities.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

William R Brogan

Full Text Available Understanding how ecological interactions mitigate the impacts of perturbations such as pesticides in biological communities is an important basic and applied question for ecologists. In aquatic ecosystems, new evidence from microcosm experiments suggests that submerged macrophytes can buffer cladocerans from pulse exposures to the widely used insecticide malathion, and that mitigation increases with macrophyte density. However, whether these results scale up to more complex aquatic communities where ecological interactions such as competition can alter toxicity is unknown. Further, macrophyte abilities to mitigate different insecticide exposure scenarios (i.e. single versus repeated pulses have never been tested. To address these gaps, we performed a factorial mesocosm experiment examining the influence of four macrophyte treatments (0, 10, 50, or 100 Elodea Canadensis shoots planted per mesocosm crossed with three malathion exposure scenarios (no insecticide, single pulse, repeated pulses on aquatic communities containing zooplankton, phytoplankton, periphyton, two snail species, and larval amphibians. In the absence of macrophytes, single malathion pulses caused short-term declines in cladoceran abundance followed by their rapid recovery, which precluded any indirect effects (i.e. trophic cascades. However, repeated malathion pulses caused cladoceran extinctions, resulting in persistent phytoplankton blooms and reduced abundance of one snail species. In contrast, with macrophytes present, even at low density, malathion had no effect on any taxa. We also discovered novel effects of macrophytes on the benthic food web. In the two highest macrophyte treatments, we observed trends of reduced periphyton biomass, decreased abundance of one snail species, and decreased amphibian time to and mass at metamorphosis. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence of negative submerged macrophyte effects on amphibians, a taxa of global conservation concern

Radon mitigation experience in difficult-to-mitigate schools

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leovic, K.W.; Craig, A.B.

1990-01-01

Initial radon mitigation experience in schools has shown sub-slab depressurization (SSD) to be generally effective in reducing elevated levels of radon in schools that have a continuous layer of clean, coarse aggregate underneath the slab. However, mitigation experience is limited in schools without sub-slab aggregate and in schools with characteristics such as return-air ductwork underneath the slab or unducted return-air plenums in the drop ceiling that are open to the sub-slab area (via open tops of block walls). Mitigation of schools with utility tunnels and of schools constructed over crawl spaces is also limited. Three Maryland schools exhibiting some of the above characteristics are being researched to help understand the mechanisms that control radon entry and mitigation in schools where standard SSD systems are not effective. This paper discusses specific characteristics of potentially difficult-to-mitigate schools and, where applicable, details examples from the three Maryland schools

The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carter, T; Tuomenvirta, H [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

1996-12-31

There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H.; Posch, M.

1995-01-01

There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

1995-12-31

There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

Inevitable changes in snowpack and water resources over California's Sierra Nevada

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, A. D.; Sun, F.; Walton, D.; Berg, N.; Schwartz, M. A.

2015-12-01

Here we use a downscaling technique incorporating both dynamical and statistical methods to project end-of-century changes in spring snow water equivalent in California's Sierra Nevada. The technique produces outcomes for all Global Climate Models (GCMs) and the four greenhouse gas forcing scenarios adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For all GCMs and forcing scenarios, significant snow loss occurs at elevations below 2500 meters, despite increasing precipitation in many GCMs. The loss is significantly enhanced by snow albedo feedback. The approximate intermodel range in percent of total snow remaining in the entire region is 60-85% for a likely "mitigation" scenario, and 35-55% for the "business-as-usual" scenario. Thus significant snowpack decrease by century's end is inevitable, even if the loss can be cushioned through greenhouse gas emissions reductions over the coming decades. The snowpack loss also leads to significant changes in runoff timing, which are also inevitable.

Evaluating Health Co-Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation in Urban Mobility.

Science.gov (United States)

Wolkinger, Brigitte; Haas, Willi; Bachner, Gabriel; Weisz, Ulli; Steininger, Karl; Hutter, Hans-Peter; Delcour, Jennifer; Griebler, Robert; Mittelbach, Bernhard; Maier, Philipp; Reifeltshammer, Raphael

2018-04-28

There is growing recognition that implementation of low-carbon policies in urban passenger transport has near-term health co-benefits through increased physical activity and improved air quality. Nevertheless, co-benefits and related cost reductions are often not taken into account in decision processes, likely because they are not easy to capture. In an interdisciplinary multi-model approach we address this gap, investigating the co-benefits resulting from increased physical activity and improved air quality due to climate mitigation policies for three urban areas. Additionally we take a (macro-)economic perspective, since that is the ultimate interest of policy-makers. Methodologically, we link a transport modelling tool, a transport emission model, an emission dispersion model, a health model and a macroeconomic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze three climate change mitigation scenarios. We show that higher levels of physical exercise and reduced exposure to pollutants due to mitigation measures substantially decrease morbidity and mortality. Expenditures are mainly born by the public sector but are mostly offset by the emerging co-benefits. Our macroeconomic results indicate a strong positive welfare effect, yet with slightly negative GDP and employment effects. We conclude that considering economic co-benefits of climate change mitigation policies in urban mobility can be put forward as a forceful argument for policy makers to take action.

Using dynamical downscaling to close the gap between global change scenarios and local permafrost dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stendel, Martin; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.; Christensen, Jens H.

2007-01-01

Even though we can estimate the zonation of present-day permafrost from deep-soil temperatures obtained from global coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) by accounting for heat conduction in the frozen soil, it is impossible to explicitly resolve soil properties, vegetation......, in particular in mountainous regions. By using global climate change scenarios as driving fields, one can obtain permafrost dynamics in high temporal resolution on the order of years. For the 21st century under the IPCC SRES scenarios A2 and B2, we find an increase of mean annual ground temperature by up to 6 K...

Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Carlson

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG scenario and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2–thin clouds or LCTC scenario . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has  ∼  11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

Carbon, Nitrogen, and Water Response to Land Use and Management Decisions under a Changing Climate in Pennsylvania during the 21st Century

Science.gov (United States)

Felzer, B. S.; Kicklighter, D. W.

2011-12-01

The effects of future climate change and increases in atmospheric CO2 levels in Pennsylvania must be considered in the context of land use and management decisions. While Pennsylvania was originally completely forested at the outset of the colonial period, 19th century land clearing and subsequent regrowth has changed the forest cover of Pennsylvania from 32% to 64% of the land area. Recent trends from 1992-2005 show that developed land has increased by 131% at the expense of agricultural land and forests. Future climate projections indicate that Pennsylvania will get significantly warmer and wetter due to continued increases in greenhouse gases. Using the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model version Hydro (TEM-Hydro), this study explores the role of land use and management in carbon and water dynamics during the 20th century and for four land use scenarios in the 21st century including: 1) a potential vegetation land cover of 100% forest; 2) a current land cover comprising mature forests, crops, pasture, and developed area; 3) a current land cover with younger forests; and 4) a future land cover scenario based on expanding development at the rate of 639,284 acres per decade adjacent to existing developed lands. Common assumptions are made about land use management, but we also explore the effect of crop tilling. TEM-Hydro runs are forced by 20th century climate from the PRISM model and 21st century climate from the NCAR CCSM3.0 IPCC A2 and B1 scenarios downscaled and bias corrected to 1/8o resolution. Regrowing forests are the only ecosystem with positive Net Carbon Exchange (NCE, Net Ecosystem Productivity minus carbon losses from the conversion of natural vegetation to cultivation and decomposition of agricultural and wood products, where positive indicates ecosystem sink), and sequester about 11,000 g C m-2 over the 20th century. The highest rates of leaching of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) occur in those areas that are fertilized, which include urban turf lawns

Ethical implications of co-benefits rationale within climate change mitigation strategy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rita Vasconcellos Oliveira

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Climate change mitigation effort is being translated into several actions and discourses that make collateral benefits and their rationale increasingly relevant for sustainability, in such a way that they are now a constant part of the political agenda. Taking a border and consensual perspective, co-benefits are considered here to be emerging advantages of the implementation of measures regarding the lowering of greenhouse gases.Departing from the analysis of policy documents referring to two European urban transportation strategies, the emergent co-benefits are problematized and discussed to better understand their moral aspect. Further ethical reflection is conducted after an analysis of some unintended consequences of co-benefits rationale coming from the mentioned examples. The focus is primarily on the challenges of an integrative moral justification for co-benefits and also for their role in the climate change mitigation effort. We also discuss the limitations of the current normative models that frame co-benefits rationale, from a moral viewpoint and in relation to the overall climate change mitigation strategy.In this article, we propose the concepts of well-being and freedom, as portrayed by Capabilities Approach, as possible guiding notions for the moral and social evaluation of goodness of these emergent benefits and their rationale too. Additionally, some preliminary conclusions are drawn regarding the potential of the presented concepts to favour the climate change mitigation action. Finally, a scenario is drawn where Capabilities Approach is the moral guideline for co-benefits rationale showing this way its potential in terms of enhancing climate change mitigation strategy.

Modelling mitigation options to reduce diffuse nitrogen water pollution from agriculture.

Science.gov (United States)

Bouraoui, Fayçal; Grizzetti, Bruna

2014-01-15

Agriculture is responsible for large scale water quality degradation and is estimated to contribute around 55% of the nitrogen entering the European Seas. The key policy instrument for protecting inland, transitional and coastal water resources is the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Reducing nutrient losses from agriculture is crucial to the successful implementation of the WFD. There are several mitigation measures that can be implemented to reduce nitrogen losses from agricultural areas to surface and ground waters. For the selection of appropriate measures, models are useful for quantifying the expected impacts and the associated costs. In this article we review some of the models used in Europe to assess the effectiveness of nitrogen mitigation measures, ranging from fertilizer management to the construction of riparian areas and wetlands. We highlight how the complexity of models is correlated with the type of scenarios that can be tested, with conceptual models mostly used to evaluate the impact of reduced fertilizer application, and the physically-based models used to evaluate the timing and location of mitigation options and the response times. We underline the importance of considering the lag time between the implementation of measures and effects on water quality. Models can be effective tools for targeting mitigation measures (identifying critical areas and timing), for evaluating their cost effectiveness, for taking into consideration pollution swapping and considering potential trade-offs in contrasting environmental objectives. Models are also useful for involving stakeholders during the development of catchments mitigation plans, increasing their acceptability. © 2013.

Analysis of Multipath Mitigation Techniques with Land Mobile Satellite Channel Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Z. H. Bhuiyan J. Zhang

2012-12-01

is of utmost importance to analyze the performance of different multipath mitigation techniques in some realistic measurement-based channel models, for example, the Land Mobile Satellite (LMS channel model [1]-[4], developed at the German Aerospace Center (DLR. The DLR LMS channel model is widely used for simulating the positioning accuracy of mobile satellite navigation receivers in urban outdoor scenarios. The main objective of this paper is to present a comprehensive analysis of some of the most promising techniques with the DLR LMS channel model in varying multipath scenarios. Four multipath mitigation techniques are chosen herein for performance comparison, namely, the narrow Early-Minus-Late (nEML, the High Resolution Correlator, the C/N0-based two stage delay tracking technique, and the Reduced Search Space Maximum Likelihood (RSSML delay estimator. The first two techniques are the most popular and traditional ones used in nowadays GNSS receivers, whereas the later two techniques are comparatively new and are advanced techniques, recently proposed by the authors. In addition, the implementation of the RSSML is optimized here for a narrow-bandwidth receiver configuration in the sense that it now requires a significantly less number of correlators and memory than its original implementation. The simulation results show that the reduced-complexity RSSML achieves the best multipath mitigation performance in moderate-to-good carrier-to-noise density ratio with the DLR LMS channel model in varying multipath scenarios.

Development of steady-state scenarios compatible with ITER-like wall conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Litaudon, X [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC-Cadarache 13108, St Paul Durance (France); Arnoux, G [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC-Cadarache 13108, St Paul Durance (France); Beurskens, M [Euratom/UKAEA Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom)] (and others)

2007-12-15

mitigation of edge localized mode (ELM) activity. At reduced toroidal magnetic field strength, high {beta}{sub N} regimes have been achieved and q-profile optimization investigated for use in steady-state scenarios. Values of {beta}{sub N} above the 'no-wall magnetohydrodynamic limit' ({beta}{sub N} {approx} 3.0) have been sustained for a resistive current diffusion time in high-{delta} configurations (at 1.2 MA/1.8 T). In this scenario, ELM activity has been mitigated by applying magnetic perturbations using error field correction coils to provide ergodization of the magnetic field at the plasma edge. In a highly shaped, quasi-double null X-point configuration, ITBs have been generated on the ion heat transport channel and combined with 'grassy' ELMs with {approx}30 MW of applied heating power (at 1.2 MA/2.7 T, q{sub 95} {approx} 7). Advanced algorithms and system identification procedures have been developed with a view to developing simultaneously temperature and q-profile control in real-time. These techniques have so far been applied to the control of the q-profile evolution in JET AT scenarios.

The Integrated Information System for Natural Disaster Mitigation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Junxiu Wu

2007-08-01

Full Text Available Supported by the World Bank, the Integrated Information System for Natural Disaster Mitigation (ISNDM, including the operational service system and network telecommunication system, has been in development for three years in the Center of Disaster Reduction, Chinese Academy of Sciences, based on the platform of the GIS software Arcview. It has five main modules: disaster background information, socio- economic information, disaster-induced factors database, disaster scenarios database, and disaster assessment. ISNDM has several significant functions, which include information collection, information processing, data storage, and information distribution. It is a simple but comprehensive demonstration system for our national center for natural disaster reduction.

Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Sultan, Benjamin; Gaetani, Marco

2016-01-01

West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such

A core framework and scenario for deep GHG reductions at the city scale

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lazarus, Michael; Chandler, Chelsea; Erickson, Peter

2013-01-01

Trends in increasing urbanization, paired with a lack of ambitious action on larger scales, uniquely position cities to resume leadership roles in climate mitigation. While many cities have adopted ambitious long-term emission reduction goals, few have articulated how to reach them. This paper presents one of the first long-term scenarios of deep greenhouse gas abatement for a major U.S. city. Using a detailed, bottom-up scenario analysis, we investigate how Seattle might achieve its recently stated goal of carbon neutrality by the year 2050. The analysis demonstrates that a series of ambitious strategies could achieve per capita GHG reductions of 34% in 2020, and 91% in 2050 in Seattle's “core” emissions from the buildings, transportation, and waste sectors. We examine the pros and cons of options to get to, or beyond, net zero emissions in these sectors. We also discuss methodological innovations for community-scale emissions accounting frameworks, including a “core” emissions focus that excludes industrial activity and a consumption perspective that expands the emissions footprint and scope of policy solutions. As in Seattle, other communities may find the mitigation strategies and analytical approaches presented here are useful for crafting policies to achieve deep GHG-reduction goals. - Highlights: ► Cities can play a pivotal role in mitigating climate change. ► Strategies modeled achieve per-capita GHG reductions of 91% by 2050 in Seattle. ► We discuss methodological innovations in community-scale accounting frameworks. ► We weigh options for getting to, or beyond, zero GHG emissions. ► Other cities may adapt these measures and analytical approaches to curb emissions

Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

2005-11-01

Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

2018-01-01

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model - Storm Water Management Model - was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020-2040 compared to the volume in 1971-2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has

Mitigation of divertor heat flux by high-frequency ELM pacing with non-fuel pellet injection in DIII-D

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Bortolon

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Experiments have been conducted on DIII-D investigating high repetition rate injection of non-fuel pellets as a tool for pacing Edge Localized Modes (ELMs and mitigating their transient divertor heat loads. Effective ELM pacing was obtained with injection of Li granules in different H-mode scenarios, at frequencies 3–5 times larger than the natural ELM frequency, with subsequent reduction of strike-point heat flux (Bortolon et al., Nucl. Fus., 56, 056008, 2016. However, in scenarios with high pedestal density (∼6 ×1019m−3, the magnitude of granule triggered ELMs shows a broad distribution, in terms of stored energy loss and peak heat flux, challenging the effectiveness of ELM mitigation. Furthermore, transient heat-flux deposition correlated with granule injections was observed far from the strike-points. Field line tracing suggest this phenomenon to be consistent with particle loss into the mid-plane far scrape-off layer, at toroidal location of the granule injection.

Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

Science.gov (United States)

Rogelj, Joeri; Popp, Alexander; Calvin, Katherine V.; Luderer, Gunnar; Emmerling, Johannes; Gernaat, David; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Strefler, Jessica; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Marangoni, Giacomo; Krey, Volker; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Doelman, Jonathan; Drouet, Laurent; Edmonds, Jae; Fricko, Oliver; Harmsen, Mathijs; Havlík, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Stehfest, Elke; Tavoni, Massimo

2018-04-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m-2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m-2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m-2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios.

The role of non-CO2 mitigation within the dairy sector in pursuing climate goals

Science.gov (United States)

Rolph, K.; Forest, C. E.

2017-12-01

Mitigation of non-CO2 climate forcing agents must complement the mitigation of carbon dioxide (CO2) to achieve long-term temperature and climate policy goals. By using multi-gas mitigation strategies, society can limit the rate of temperature change on decadal timescales and reduce the cost of implementing policies that only consider CO2 mitigation. The largest share of global non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions is attributed to agriculture, with activities related to dairy production contributing the most in this sector. Approximately 4% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is released from the dairy sub-sector, primarily through enteric fermentation, feed production, and manure management. Dairy farmers can significantly reduce their emissions by implementing better management practices. This study assesses the potential mitigation of projected climate change if greenhouse gases associated with the dairy sector were reduced. To compare the performance of several mitigation measures under future climate change, we employ a fully coupled earth system model of intermediate complexity, the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). The model includes an interactive carbon-cycle capable of addressing important feedbacks between the climate and terrestrial biosphere. Mitigation scenarios are developed using estimated emission reductions of implemented management practices studied by the USDA-funded Sustainable Dairy Project (Dairy-CAP). We examine pathways to reach the US dairy industry's voluntary goal of reducing dairy emissions 25% by 2020. We illustrate the importance of ongoing mitigation efforts in the agricultural industry to reduce non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions towards established climate goals.

IPCC Climate Change 2013: Mitigation of Climate Change - Key Findings and Lessons Learned

Science.gov (United States)

Sokona, Youba

2014-05-01

The Working Group III contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Mitigation of Climate Change, examines the results of scientific research about mitigation, with special attention on how knowledge has evolved since the Fourth Assessment Report published in 2007. Throughout, the focus is on the implications of its findings for policy, without being prescriptive about the particular policies that governments and other important participants in the policy process should adopt. The report begins with a framing of important concepts and methods that help to contextualize the findings presented throughout the assessment. The valuation of risks and uncertainties, ethical concepts and the context of sustainable development and equity are among the guiding principles for the assessment of mitigation strategies. The report highlights past trends in stocks and flows of greenhouse gases and the factors that drive emissions at global, regional, and sectoral scales including economic growth, technology or population changes. It provides analyses of the technological, economic and institutional requirements of long-term mitigation scenarios and details on mitigation measures and policies that are applied in different economic sectors and human settlements. It then discusses interactions of mitigation policies and different policy instrument types at national, regional and global governance levels and between economic sectors, The Working Group III report comprises 16 chapters and in assembling this assessment authors were guided by the principles of the IPCC mandate: to be explicit about mitigation options, to be explicit about their costs and about their risks and opportunities vis-à-vis other development priorities, and to be explicit about the underlying criteria, concepts, and methods for evaluating alternative policies.

Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

2016-08-01

The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O₃ level and of 0.3 mg m³ in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO₂, H₂O₂, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere’s near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O₃, and increases in CH₄ and VOCs. Increasing NO_x and O₃ levels enhances the nitrogen and O₃ deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth’s surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m² . This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR’s CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol

The Impact of CCS Readiness on the Evolution of China's Electric Power Sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dahowski, Robert T.; Davidson, Casie L.; Yu, Sha; Horing, Jill D.; Wei, Ning; Clarke, Leon E.; Bender, Sadie R.

2017-07-01

In this study, GCAM-China is exercised to examine the impact of CCS availability on the projected evolution of China’s electric power sector under the Paris Increased Ambition policy scenario developed by Fawcett et al. based on the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted under the COP-21 Paris Agreement. This policy scenario provides a backdrop for understanding China’s electric generation mix over the coming century under several CCS availability scenarios: CCS is fully available for commercial-scale deployment by 2025; by 2050; by 2075; and CCS is unavailable for use in meeting the modelled mitigation targets through 2100. Without having CCS available, the Chinese electric power sector turns to significant use of nuclear, wind, and solar to meet growing demands and emissions targets, at a cost. Should large-scale CCS deployment be delayed in China by 25 years, the modeled per-ton cost of climate change mitigation is projected to be roughly $420/tC (2010 US dollars) by 2050, relative to $360/tC in the case in which CCS is available to deploy by 2025, a 16% increase. Once CCS is available for commercial use, mitigation costs for the two cases converge, equilibrating by 2085. However, should CCS be entirely unavailable to deploy in China, the mitigation cost spread, compared to the 2025 case, doubles by 2075 ($580/tC and $1130/tC respectively), and triples by 2100 ($1050/tC vs. $3200/tC). However, while delays in CCS availability may have short-term impacts on China’s overall per-ton cost of meeting the emissions reduction target evaluated here, as well as total mitigation costs, the carbon price is likely to approach the price path associated with the full CCS availability case within a decade of CCS deployment. Having CCS available before the end of the century, even under the delays examined here, could reduce the total amount of nuclear and renewable energy that must deploy, reducing the overall cost of meeting the emissions

Climate change mitigation in China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xu, Bo

2012-07-01

China has been experiencing great economic development and fast urbanisation since its reforms and opening-up policy in 1978. However, these changes are reliant on consumption of primary energy, especially coal, characterised by high pollution and low efficiency. China's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) being the most significant contributor, have also been increasing rapidly in the past three decades. Responding to both domestic challenges and international pressure regarding energy, climate change and environment, the Chinese government has made a point of addressing climate change since the early 2000s. This thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of China's CO{sub 2} emissions and policy instruments for mitigating climate change. In the analysis, China's CO{sub 2} emissions in recent decades were reviewed and the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis examined. Using the mostly frequently studied macroeconomic factors and time-series data for the period of 1980-2008, the existence of an EKC relationship between CO{sub 2} per capita and GDP per capita was verified. However, China's CO{sub 2} emissions will continue to grow over coming decades and the turning point in overall CO{sub 2} emissions will appear in 2078 according to a crude projection. More importantly, CO{sub 2} emissions will not spontaneously decrease if China continues to develop its economy without mitigating climate change. On the other hand, CO{sub 2} emissions could start to decrease if substantial efforts are made. China's present mitigation target, i.e. to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 compared with the 2005 level, was then evaluated. Three business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios were developed and compared with the level of emissions according to the mitigation target. The calculations indicated that decreasing the CO{sub 2} intensity of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 is a challenging but hopeful target. To

Securing the future in the anthropocene: A critical analysis of the millennium ecosystem assessment scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert P. Marzec

2018-05-01

Full Text Available This commentary analyzes the ontological character of the United Nations’ Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005 and its attempt to imagine business-as-usual and transformative human-environmental futures. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA constitutes the first and most significant attempt by an international political body to incorporate environmental concerns into the field of imaginative scenario building. In addition to its lengthy report on the threatened status of planetary ecosystems, the MA contains extensive “future scenarios” that imagine how human-environmental relations might unfold over the course of the twenty-first century. These scenarios arise out of the lineage of military scenarios generated during the Cold War, and continue to inform UN assessments in the present. This commentary explores how a politico-military concern for security informs the framework of the scenarios, and limits how the MA characterizes the fundamental human act of narration. In the process, the commentary explores alternative ontologies of narration and how these may lead to more transformative narratological interventions.

State of the art of mitigation and relation mitigation/adaptation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lenstra, W.J.; Van Doorn, J.; Verheggen, B.; Sahan, E.; Boersma, A.R. [ECN Biomass, Coal and Environment Research, Petten (Netherlands)

2009-04-15

This study has the main purpose to make useful information available for the programming of the Knowledge for Climate (KfC) program. The emphasis has been laid on a broad overview of mitigation options and relations, complemented with more detailed information on new or less known options and insights. The mitigation option biomass gets special attention in this study. The production of biomass has many (positive and negative) relations with other elements of the KfC program like space use and adaptation. Recently a global discussion on biomass usage for biofuels has started (food or fuel). Therefore a separate chapter will be dedicated to the sustainability aspects of biomass. An overview of technical mitigation measures with emphasis on the energy supply side is presented. This overview shows the large number of available and innovative options and the vast potential for reduction of the emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) of these mitigation measures. The effectiveness of many mitigation options is strongly dependent on local conditions and implementation issues. A number of innovative mitigation measures such as aquatic biomass and biomass in combination with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) are described in more detail. Biomass for energy has many different forms and applications. It is one of the mitigation options with a high potential, but at the same time it can have negative environmental impacts and might compete with other forms of land use including food production. This makes bio-energy a promising but complex option, which makes careful evaluation necessary. Several examples of multifunctional land use show that by combining functions, synergy can be achieved. This could lead to a reduction of potentially negative impacts and thus easier implementation. Furthermore, novel technologies for reducing or offsetting climate change such as air capture and artificial cooling might have a high potential as mitigation option, but need to be examined before

Defining climate change scenario characteristics with a phase space of cumulative primary energy and carbon intensity

Science.gov (United States)

Ritchie, Justin; Dowlatabadi, Hadi

2018-02-01

Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing. Scenarios of socio-technical development consistent with end-of-century forcing levels are commonly produced by integrated assessment models. However, outlooks for forcing from fossil energy combustion can also be presented and defined in terms of two essential components: total energy use this century and the carbon intensity of that energy. This formulation allows a phase space diagram to succinctly describe a broad range of possible outcomes for carbon emissions from the future energy system. In the following paper, we demonstrate this phase space method with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The resulting RCP phase space is applied to map IPCC Working Group III (WGIII) reference case ‘no policy’ scenarios. Once these scenarios are described as coordinates in the phase space, data mining techniques can readily distill their core features. Accordingly, we conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the shared outlooks of these scenarios for oil, gas and coal resource use. As a whole, the AR5 database depicts a transition toward re-carbonization, where a world without climate policy inevitably leads to an energy supply with increasing carbon intensity. This orientation runs counter to the experienced ‘dynamics as usual’ of gradual decarbonization, suggesting climate change targets outlined in the Paris Accord are more readily achievable than projected to date.

Sustainable urban transportation: impact of CO{sub 2} mitigation strategies on local pollutants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sudhakar Yedla; Jyoti K Parikh [Indira Ghandi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai (India); Ram M Shrestha [Asian Institute of Technology, Pathumthani (Thailand). School of Environment Resource and Development

2003-07-01

This paper assesses CO{sub 2} mitigation strategies in Delhi and Mumbai against the dynamics of local pollutants. After testing against techno-economic feasibility, compressed natural gas (CNG) technology, four-stroke two-wheelers and battery-operated vehicles (BOV) were selected as candidate options for Mumbai and Delhi. Multiple constrained optimization for finding out the optimal mix of vehicles to meet the travel demand under the business-as-usual scenario for the period of 1998-2020 revealed the dominance of CNG vehicles. CO{sub 2} mitigation targets of 5, 10, 15, 20, 25% resulted in reduced stock of diesel and petrol vehicles, with the reduction spanning over different points of the above time period. In the case of Mumbai, battery-operated three-wheelers dominated the vehicular mix, with the share of CNG vehicles remaining at a standard level. CO{sub 2} reduction targets did not influence the CNG option significantly. CO{sub 2} mitigation influenced the dynamics of local pollutants considerably in both Delhi and Mumbai. In Delhi, TSP and SO{sub x} reduction levels against the CO{sub 2} mitigation target were found to be significant. In Mumbai, the percentage reduction in local pollution (TSP in particular) was higher than the target CO{sub 2} reduction. Local pollutants other than TSP and SO{sub x} showed an increasing trend against the CO{sub 2} mitigation strategies in Delhi. In the case of Mumbai, all non-target pollutants showed a falling trend against the CO{sub 2} mitigation strategies, though insignificantly for pollutants other than TSP and SO{sub x}. (author)

Exploring the biogeophysical limits of global food production under different climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

de Vrese, Philipp; Stacke, Tobias; Hagemann, Stefan

2018-04-01

An adapted Earth system model is used to investigate the limitations that future climate and water availability impose on the potential expansion and productivity of croplands. The model maximizes the cropland area under prevailing climate conditions and accounts for an optimized, sustainable irrigation practice, thus allowing us to consider the two-way feedback between climate and agriculture. For three greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5), we show that the total cropland area could be extended substantially throughout the 21st century, especially in South America and sub-Saharan Africa, where the rising water demand resulting from increasing temperatures can largely be met by increasing precipitation and irrigation rates. When accounting for the CO2 fertilization effect, only a few agricultural areas have to be abandoned owing to declines in productivity, while increasing temperatures allow for the expansion of croplands even into high northern latitudes. Without the CO2 fertilization effect there is no increase in the overall cropland fraction during the second half of the century but areal losses in increasingly water-stressed regions can be compensated for by an expansion in regions that were previously too cold. However, global yields are more sensitive and, without the benefits of CO2 fertilization, they may decrease when greenhouse gas concentrations exceed the RCP4.5 scenario. For certain regions the situation is even more concerning and guaranteeing food security in dry areas in Northern Africa, the Middle East and South Asia will become increasingly difficult, even for the idealized scenarios investigated in this study.

Which energy for the 21 century transports

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bauquis, P.R.; Lovelock, J.

2005-01-01

With more than 95% of the energy consumption realized by the petroleum, the transportation sector represents 20% of the world energy consumption. How will be assure the energy need of this sector for the 21 century? How control the greenhouse gases emissions and in particular the CO 2 by the control of the transportation sector? This paper aims to answer the first question taking into account the bond second one. It analyzes the today situation and scenario for 2020 and 2050, the possible substitution fuels, the hybrid vehicles, the hydrogen fuel and the electric power vehicles. (A.L.B.)

Climate change impacts and greenhouse gas mitigation effects on U.S. hydropower generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boehlert, Brent; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; Gebretsadik, Yohannes; Swanson, Richard; McCluskey, Alyssa; Neumann, James E.; McFarland, James; Martinich, Jeremy

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Analyze contiguous U.S. hydropower generation under various emissions scenarios. • Employ systems model that allocates water to competing uses in 2119 river basins. • Average U.S. generation increases under climate change, but falls under low flows. • Mitigation benefits are $2-$4 billion/year due to high values of carbon-free energy. - Abstract: Climate change will have potentially significant effects on hydropower generation due to changes in the magnitude and seasonality of river runoff and increases in reservoir evaporation. These physical impacts will in turn have economic consequences through both producer revenues and consumer expenditures. We analyze the physical and economic effects of changes in hydropower generation for the contiguous U.S. in futures with and without global-scale greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, and across patterns from 18 General Circulation Models. Using a monthly water resources systems model of 2119 river basins that routes simulated river runoff through reservoirs, and allocates water to potentially conflicting and climate dependent demands, we provide a first-order estimate of the impacts of various projected emissions outcomes on hydropower generation, and monetize these impacts using outputs from an electric sector planning model for over 500 of the largest U.S. hydropower facilities. We find that, due to generally increasing river runoff under higher emissions scenarios in the Pacific Northwest, climate change tends to increase overall hydropower generation in the contiguous U.S. During low flow months, generation tends to fall with increasing emissions, potentially threatening the estimated low flow, firm energy from hydropower. Although global GHG mitigation slows the growth in hydropower generation, the higher value placed on carbon-free hydropower leads to annual economic benefits ranging from $1.8 billion to $4.3 billion. The present value of these benefits to the U.S. from global greenhouse gas

Pre-exposure to simultaneous, but not individual, climate change stressors limits acclimation capacity of Irukandji jellyfish polyps to predicted climate scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Klein, Shannon G.; Pitt, Kylie A.; Carroll, Anthony R.

2017-09-01

Researchers have investigated the immediate effects of end-of-century climate change scenarios on many marine species, yet it remains unclear whether we can reliably predict how marine species may respond to future conditions because biota may become either more or less resistant over time. Here, we examined the role of pre-exposure to elevated temperature and reduced pH in mitigating the potential negative effects of future ocean conditions on polyps of a dangerous Irukandji jellyfish Alatina alata. We pre-exposed polyps to elevated temperature (28 °C) and reduced pH (7.6), in a full factorial experiment that ran for 14 d. We secondarily exposed original polyps and their daughter polyps to either current (pH 8.0, 25 °C) or future conditions (pH 7.6, 28 °C) for a further 34 d to assess potential phenotypic plastic responses and whether asexual offspring could benefit from parental pre-exposure. Polyp fitness was characterised as asexual reproduction, respiration, feeding, and protein concentrations. Pre-exposure to elevated temperature alone partially mitigated the negative effects of future conditions on polyp fitness, while pre-exposure to reduced pH in isolation completely mitigated the negative effects of future conditions on polyp fitness. Pre-exposure to the dual stressors, however, reduced fitness under future conditions relative to those in the control treatment. Under future conditions, polyps had higher respiration rates regardless of the conditions they were pre-exposed to, suggesting that metabolic rates will be higher under future conditions. Parent and daughter polyps responded similarly to the various treatments tested, demonstrating that parental pre-exposure did not confer any benefit to asexual offspring under future conditions. Importantly, we demonstrate that while pre-exposure to the stressors individually may allow Irukandji polyps to acclimate over short timescales, the stressors are unlikely to occur in isolation in the long term, and

Pre-exposure to simultaneous, but not individual, climate change stressors limits acclimation capacity of Irukandji jellyfish polyps to predicted climate scenarios

KAUST Repository

Klein, Shannon G.; Pitt, Kylie A.; Carroll, Anthony R.

2017-01-01

Researchers have investigated the immediate effects of end-of-century climate change scenarios on many marine species, yet it remains unclear whether we can reliably predict how marine species may respond to future conditions because biota may become either more or less resistant over time. Here, we examined the role of pre-exposure to elevated temperature and reduced pH in mitigating the potential negative effects of future ocean conditions on polyps of a dangerous Irukandji jellyfish Alatina alata. We pre-exposed polyps to elevated temperature (28 °C) and reduced pH (7.6), in a full factorial experiment that ran for 14 d. We secondarily exposed original polyps and their daughter polyps to either current (pH 8.0, 25 °C) or future conditions (pH 7.6, 28 °C) for a further 34 d to assess potential phenotypic plastic responses and whether asexual offspring could benefit from parental pre-exposure. Polyp fitness was characterised as asexual reproduction, respiration, feeding, and protein concentrations. Pre-exposure to elevated temperature alone partially mitigated the negative effects of future conditions on polyp fitness, while pre-exposure to reduced pH in isolation completely mitigated the negative effects of future conditions on polyp fitness. Pre-exposure to the dual stressors, however, reduced fitness under future conditions relative to those in the control treatment. Under future conditions, polyps had higher respiration rates regardless of the conditions they were pre-exposed to, suggesting that metabolic rates will be higher under future conditions. Parent and daughter polyps responded similarly to the various treatments tested, demonstrating that parental pre-exposure did not confer any benefit to asexual offspring under future conditions. Importantly, we demonstrate that while pre-exposure to the stressors individually may allow Irukandji polyps to acclimate over short timescales, the stressors are unlikely to occur in isolation in the long term, and

Pre-exposure to simultaneous, but not individual, climate change stressors limits acclimation capacity of Irukandji jellyfish polyps to predicted climate scenarios

KAUST Repository

Klein, Shannon G.

2017-05-20

Researchers have investigated the immediate effects of end-of-century climate change scenarios on many marine species, yet it remains unclear whether we can reliably predict how marine species may respond to future conditions because biota may become either more or less resistant over time. Here, we examined the role of pre-exposure to elevated temperature and reduced pH in mitigating the potential negative effects of future ocean conditions on polyps of a dangerous Irukandji jellyfish Alatina alata. We pre-exposed polyps to elevated temperature (28 °C) and reduced pH (7.6), in a full factorial experiment that ran for 14 d. We secondarily exposed original polyps and their daughter polyps to either current (pH 8.0, 25 °C) or future conditions (pH 7.6, 28 °C) for a further 34 d to assess potential phenotypic plastic responses and whether asexual offspring could benefit from parental pre-exposure. Polyp fitness was characterised as asexual reproduction, respiration, feeding, and protein concentrations. Pre-exposure to elevated temperature alone partially mitigated the negative effects of future conditions on polyp fitness, while pre-exposure to reduced pH in isolation completely mitigated the negative effects of future conditions on polyp fitness. Pre-exposure to the dual stressors, however, reduced fitness under future conditions relative to those in the control treatment. Under future conditions, polyps had higher respiration rates regardless of the conditions they were pre-exposed to, suggesting that metabolic rates will be higher under future conditions. Parent and daughter polyps responded similarly to the various treatments tested, demonstrating that parental pre-exposure did not confer any benefit to asexual offspring under future conditions. Importantly, we demonstrate that while pre-exposure to the stressors individually may allow Irukandji polyps to acclimate over short timescales, the stressors are unlikely to occur in isolation in the long term, and

Studies on representative disruption scenarios, associated electromagnetic and heat loads and operation window in ITER

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fujieda, Hirobumi; Shimada, Michiya; Kawano, Yasunori; Ohmori, Junji; Neyatani, Yuzuru; Sugihara, Masayoshi; Gribov, Yuri; Ioki, Kimihiro; Khayrutdinov, Rustan; Lukash, Victor

2007-07-01

The impacts of plasma disruptions on ITER have been investigated in detail to confirm the robustness of the design of the machine to the potential consequential loads. The loads include both electromagnetic (EM) and heat loads on the in-vessel components and the vacuum vessel (VV). Several representative disruption scenarios are specified based on newly derived physics guidelines for the shortest current quench time as well as the maximum product of halo current fraction and toroidal peaking factor arising from disruptions in ITER. Disruption simulations with the DINA code and EM load analyses with a 3D finite element method (FEM) code are performed for these scenarios. Some margins are confirmed in the EM load on in-vessel components due to induced eddy and halo currents for these representative scenarios. However, the margins are not very large. The heat load on various parts of the first wall due to the vertical movement and the thermal quench (TQ) is calculated with a 2D heat conduction code based on the database of heat deposition during disruptions and simulation results with the DINA code. It is found that the beryllium (Be) wall will not melt during the vertical movement. Significant melting is anticipated for the upper Be wall and tungsten divertor baffle due to the TQ after the vertical movement. However, its impact could be substantially mitigated by implementing a reliable detection system of the vertical movement and a mitigation system, e.g., massive noble gas injection (MGI). Some melting of the upper Be wall is anticipated at major disruptions (MD). At least several tens of unmitigated disruptions must be considered even if an advanced prediction/mitigation system is implemented. With these unmitigated disruptions, the loss of Be layer is expected to be within approx. = 30-100 μm/event out of 10 mm thick Be first wall. Various post processing programs of the results simulated with the DINA code, which are developed for the design work, are

PWR severe accident mitigation measures, the french point of view

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duco, J.; L'Homme, A.; Queniart, D.

1990-01-01

French studies have early considered the fact that, despite all the precautions taken, the possibility of severe accidents cannot be absolutely excluded; these accidents include core meltdown and a more or less significant loss, at an early or later stage, of the confinement of the radioactive substances in the containment. For a given scenario, one can almost always imagine a more severe scenario by postulating additional failures, but it is obvious that, as the severity of the imagined scenario increases, the probability of its occurrence tends towards zero. However, it does not appear reasonable to attempt to set a probability threshold below which the scenarios should be excluded. First of all, the higher the improbability of the scenarios, the greater the uncertainty in the calculation of their probability, with the result that the calculation is not very meaningful. Secondly, and more importantly, this approach ignores the essential problem of accident situation management. From the outset, French studies have been focused on controlling the development of these situations and mitigating their consequences by means of a series of appropriate actions involving, on the one hand, optimum use of the resources available in the installation during the course of the accident and, on the other hand, the taking of protective measures for the population. To attempt to prevent an initial event to degenerate into a severe accident leading to core meltdown if the proper actions are not taken, Electricite de France has proposed a new operating procedure based on the characterization of every possible cooling state of the core

Observational studies in South African mines to mitigate seismic risks: a mid-project progress report

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Durrheim, RJ

2013-10-01

Full Text Available such as Japan. A 5-year collaborative project entitled "Observational studies in South African mines to mitigate seismic risks" was launched in 2010 to address these risks, drawing on over a century of South African and Japanese research experience... network in the mining districts. Figure 1. Schematic illustration of the research design. Jpn - Japanese researchers; CSIR - Council for Scientific and Industrial Research; CGS - Council for Geoscience The knowledge gained during the course...

Net climate change mitigation of the Clean Development Mechanism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Erickson, Peter; Lazarus, Michael; Spalding-Fecher, Randall

2014-01-01

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has allowed industrialized countries to buy credits from developing countries for the purpose of meeting targets under the Kyoto Protocol. In principle, the CDM simply shifts the location of emission reductions, with no net mitigation impact. Departing from this zero-sum calculus, the Cancun Agreements reached at the sixteenth session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) in 2010 called for “one or more market-based mechanisms” capable of “ensuring a net decrease and/or avoidance of global greenhouse gas emissions”, an intention reiterated at COP 17 and COP 18. This article explores the extent to which the CDM may or may not already lead to such a “net decrease.” It finds that the CDM's net mitigation impact likely hinges on the additionality of large-scale power projects, which are expected to generate the majority of CDM credits going forward. If these projects are truly additional and continue to operate well beyond the credit issuance period, they will decrease global greenhouse gas emissions. However, if they are mostly non-additional, as research suggests, they could increase global greenhouse gas emissions. The article closes with a discussion of possible means to increase mitigation benefit. - Highlights: • The CDM's method for assessing additionality remains controversial and contested. • We develop two scenarios of the net emissions impact of the CDM. • The integrity of the CDM hinges on the emissions impact of power supply projects. • Additionality is hard to demonstrate with confidence for most power-supply projects. • A number of options are available to increase the mitigation benefit of the CDM

Creating pedestrian crash scenarios in a driving simulator environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Chrysler, Susan T; Ahmad, Omar; Schwarz, Chris W

2015-01-01

adjust time to arrival triggers for the pedestrian actions. This article discusses the rationale behind creating the simulator scenarios and some of the procedural considerations for conducting this type of research. Crash analyses can be used to construct test scenarios for driver behavior evaluations using driving simulators. By considering trajectories, roadway, and environmental conditions of real-world crashes, representative virtual scenarios can serve as safe test beds for advanced driver assistance systems. The results of such research can be used to inform pedestrian crash avoidance/mitigation systems by identifying driver error, driver response time, and driver response choice (i.e., steering vs. braking).

The effect of climate policy on the impacts of climate change on river flows in the UK

Science.gov (United States)

Arnell, Nigel W.; Charlton, Matthew B.; Lowe, Jason A.

2014-03-01

This paper compares the effects of two indicative climate mitigation policies on river flows in six catchments in the UK with two scenarios representing un-mitigated emissions. It considers the consequences of uncertainty in both the pattern of catchment climate change as represented by different climate models and hydrological model parameterisation on the effects of mitigation policy. Mitigation policy has little effect on estimated flow magnitudes in 2030. By 2050 a mitigation policy which achieves a 2 °C temperature rise target reduces impacts on low flows by 20-25% compared to a business-as-usual emissions scenario which increases temperatures by 4 °C by the end of the 21st century, but this is small compared to the range in impacts between different climate model scenarios. However, the analysis also demonstrates that an early peak in emissions would reduce impacts by 40-60% by 2080 (compared with the 4 °C pathway), easing the adaptation challenge over the long term, and can delay by several decades the impacts that would be experienced from around 2050 in the absence of policy. The estimated proportion of impacts avoided varies between climate model patterns and, to a lesser extent, hydrological model parameterisations, due to variations in the projected shape of the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response.

Long-term scenario alternatives and their implications: LEAP model application of Panama's electricity sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McPherson, Madeleine; Karney, Bryan

2014-01-01

Panama recently enacted a new law, which aims to promote wind energy by mandating long term power purchase tenders. The implications of this new law lend some uncertainty to Panama's electricity development pathway. This paper quantitatively analyzes the current status of power generation in Panama, and explores various potential future scenarios and the associated impacts on the system marginal cost, global warming potential, and resource diversity index. To this end, this study applies the scenario development methodology developed by Schwartz in the context of the energy-economic modeling platform ‘Long-range Energy Alternative Planning’ (LEAP). Four scenarios are developed and analyzed. The Business as Usual scenario extrapolates the electricity generation trend that has been observed over the last decade; it is compared to three alternative scenarios which have more specific objectives. Scenario 1 encourages climate mitigation without incorporating new technologies in the generation mix, Scenario 2 maximizes resource diversity, and Scenario 3 minimizes global warming potential. For each scenario, the composition of the electricity generation profile, system marginal cost, global warming potential, and resource diversity is predicted quantitatively. These scenarios to not attempt to forecast likely developments, but rather illuminate the tradeoffs that different development pathways entail. - Highlights: • This paper models Panama's electricity sector using the LEAP model platform. • Four scenarios are developed and analyzed. • Impact analysis includes: system cost, global warming potential, resource diversity index. • Panama can achieve a sustainable grid with existing technologies and costs. • There is an tradeoff between the resource diversity and global warming potential

Participatory evaluation of regional light rail scenarios: A Flemish case on sustainable mobility and land-use

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vermote, Levi; Macharis, Cathy; Hollevoet, Joachim; Putman, Koen

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We propose three light rail scenarios, each covering a specific landscape structure to curtail private vehicle-driven urban sprawl in the Flemish rhombus. • We used the participatory multi-actor multi-criteria analysis (MAMCA) to assess the social, economic and environmental impact of alternative light rail scenarios. • We discuss catalyst measures to comply with the identified drawbacks of the proposed scenarios. - Abstract: Rail transit is generally acknowledged as an alternative transport mode in contributing towards sustainable mobility. In addition to minimising negative externalities, rail transit has sustainable land-use opportunities to integrate transport- and spatial planning. The objective of this paper is to determine the impact of integrative light rail scenarios and their ability to curtail private vehicle driven urban sprawl in the Flemish rhombus. The paper proposes three light rail scenarios: an infrastructural scenario; tramification scenario; and spatial rail scenario, each covering a specific landscape structure to reorganise the dispersed spatial environment in Flanders in the long-term. We used the participatory multi-actor multi-criteria analysis (MAMCA) which incorporates the objectives of all involved stakeholders to assess the impact of the scenarios. The infrastructural alternative scenario gained most support among the involved stakeholders, on the grounds of improved multimodality, enhanced user amenities, reduced implementation costs, moderated greenhouse gas emissions and mitigated infrastructural barrier effects. Despite the merits of the infrastructural scenario in terms of stakeholder objectives, few possibilities are included to elaborate upon sustainable land-use development. In response to the low performance of this assessment criterion, catalyst measures are discussed to support the implementation

FEMA Hazard Mitigation Assistance Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA) Data

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Homeland Security — This dataset contains closed and obligated projects funded under the following Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) grant programs: Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA)....

Directions for advanced use of nuclear power in century XXI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walter, C.E.

1999-01-01

Nuclear power can provide a significant contribution to electricity generation and meet other needs of the world and the US during the next century provided that certain directions are taken to achieve its public acceptance. These directions include formulation of projections of population, energy consumption, and energy resources over a responsible period of time. These projections will allow assessment of cumulative effects on the environment and on fixed resources. Use of fossil energy resources in a century of growing demand for energy must be considered in the context of long-term environmental damage and resource depletion. Although some question the validity of these consequences, they can be mitigated by use of advanced fast reactor technology. It must be demonstrated that nuclear power technology is safe, resistant to material diversion for weapon use, and economical. An unbiased examination of all the issues related to energy use, especially of electricity, is an essential direction to take

Japan's Long-term Energy Demand and Supply Scenario to 2050 - Estimation for the Potential of Massive CO2 Mitigation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Komiyama, Ryoichi; Marnay, Chris; Stadler, Michael; Lai, Judy; Borgeson, Sam; Coffey, Brian; Azevedo, Ines Lima

2009-09-01

In this analysis, the authors projected Japan's energy demand/supply and energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions to 2050. Their analysis of various scenarios indicated that Japan's CO{sub 2} emissions in 2050 could be potentially reduced by 26-58% from the current level (FY 2005). These results suggest that Japan could set a CO{sub 2} emission reduction target for 2050 at between 30% and 60%. In order to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions by 60% in 2050 from the present level, Japan will have to strongly promote energy conservation at the same pace as an annual rate of 1.9% after the oil crises (to cut primary energy demand per GDP (TPES/GDP) in 2050 by 60% from 2005) and expand the share of non-fossil energy sources in total primary energy supply in 2050 to 50% (to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions per primary energy demand (CO{sub 2}/TPES) in 2050 by 40% from 2005). Concerning power generation mix in 2050, nuclear power will account for 60%, solar and other renewable energy sources for 20%, hydro power for 10% and fossil-fired generation for 10%, indicating substantial shift away from fossil fuel in electric power supply. Among the mitigation measures in the case of reducing CO{sub 2} emissions by 60% in 2050, energy conservation will make the greatest contribution to the emission reduction, being followed by solar power, nuclear power and other renewable energy sources. In order to realize this massive CO{sub 2} abatement, however, Japan will have to overcome technological and economic challenges including the large-scale deployment of nuclear power and renewable technologies.

Climate Change Scenarios in the Yucatan Peninsula to the year 2020

Science.gov (United States)

Orellana, R.; Espadas, C.; Conde, C.; Gay, C.

2010-03-01

A topic that has not been sufficiently analyzed is that the global warming is already affecting, and that it will have worst consequences in those regions with transitional climates, which have more sensibility to changes. This is the case of the Yucatan Peninsula which is semi-arid in their northern portion, and toward the south is subhumid, with a tendency to be more rainy toward the south. To have an estimation of what could happen in the future, the Intergovernmental Panel of Climatic Change (IPCC) has promoted the use of General Circulation Models (GCM), as well as the construction of possible emission scenarios that integrate different global and regional socioeconomic and demographic conditions, which project then a possible increase of emissions of greenhouse gases. These conditions are recognized as the decisive forces that will determine the variations of temperature and of precipitation. These projections are useful for the analysis of climatic change, and in particular for the assessments of the possible impacts and of the initiatives of adaptation and of mitigation that should be implemented in every country or region. In Mexico, most of those evaluations of climate change have been carried out generally at country level. For that reason, it is necessary to direct the research at regional level. In this work, we evaluated the potential climatic changes on the Yucatan Peninsula, considering the different changes of temperature and precipitation as a consequence for different emission scenarios and for the horizon 2020. To project the environmental responses of the region, we used as a base scenario the available temperature and precipitation information of the period 1961-1990, registered in 85 meteorological stations of the peninsula. With these data, we generated climate change scenarios using the outputs of four General Circulation Models: HADLEY, ECHAM, GFDL and CGCM, and the emission scenarios A1FI, A2, B1 and B2. The outputs of these models were

Source attribution and mitigation strategies for air pollution in Delhi

Science.gov (United States)

Kiesewetter, Gregor; Purohit, Pallav; Schoepp, Wolfgang; Liu, Jun; Amann, Markus; Bhanarkar, Anil

2017-04-01

Indian cities, and the megacity of Delhi in particular, have suffered from high air pollution for years. Recent observations show that ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in Delhi strongly exceed the Indian national ambient air quality standards as well as the World Health Organization's interim target levels. At the same time, India is experiencing strong urbanization, and both Delhi's emissions as well as the exposed population are growing. Therefore the question arises how PM2.5 concentrations will evolve in the future, and how they can be improved efficiently. In the past, typical responses of the Delhi government to high pollution episodes have been restrictions on motorized road traffic, on power plant operations and on construction activities. However, to design sustainable and efficient pollution mitigation measures, the contribution of different source sectors and spatial scales needs to be quantified. Here we combine the established emission calculation scheme of the Greenhouse Gas - Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model with regional chemistry-transport model simulations (0.5° resolution) as well as local particle dispersion (2 × 2 km resolution) to arrive at a source attribution of ambient PM2.5 in Delhi. Calculated concentrations compare well to observations. We find that roughly 60% of total population-weighted PM2.5 originates from sources outside the national capital territory of Delhi itself. Consequently, mitigation strategies need to involve neighboring states and address the typical sources there. We discuss the likely evolution of ambient concentrations under different scenarios which assume either current emission control legislation, or application of a Clean Air Scenario foreseeing additional regulations in non-industrial sectors which are often overlooked, such as phase-out of solid fuel cookstoves, and road paving. Only in the case where the Clean Air Scenario is applied both in Delhi as well as in

CO2 emission scenarios for next centuries to obtain more complete simulations of the global warming; Scenari globali di emissione a lungo termine di CO2 per una simulazione piu' completa dell'effetto serra

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Michelini, M. [ENEA, Divisione Sistemi Energetici per la Mobilita' e l' Habitat, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy)

2001-07-01

In the framework of a punctual Modeling of the Greenhouse Effect (report RT/ERG/2001/1) it is necessary to set CO2 Emission Scenarios for the next Centuries in order to obtain the complete evolution of the global warming. Some methodologies are described to approach such long term previsions. From the demand side, the growth of the consumes (which are affected by population and development) is correlated (supply side) with the technical-economic-environmental Evaluation of the future diffusion of classic sources (experienced in the past centuries) and of new Technologies and renewable sources. The previsions of the world population Growth are derived from the UNFPA publications. The degree of economic Development of the world Population in the very long term is obtained by simulating the Evolution of the Population across four main Areas characterized by different pro-capita consumes. Using these criteria two different Scenarios have been set-up and put into comparison with the SRES Scenarios published in the Third Assessment Report-WG1 of the IPCC. The cut at the year 2100 of the SRES Scenarios is also discussed. Simulations of the Global Warming in the long term have been performed with the two scenarios. These results are discussed together with the results of the Simulations reported by IPCC. [Italian] Nell'ambito della elaborazione di un modello puntuale per la simulazione del riscaldamento globale conseguente all'effetto serra, (rapporto tecnico RT/ERG/2001/1), viene ripresa la problematica degli scenari di emissione di CO2 per alcuni secoli al fine di poter studiare l'intera evoluzione del fenomeno. Per superare le difficolta' insite nelle previsioni riferite a un futuro tanto lontano, vengono indicate alcune metodologie. Dal lato domanda i principali fattori di crescita dei consumi (cioe' popolazione e sviluppo economico) vengono posti a confronto (lato offerta) con le modalita' di diffusione delle singole fonti desunte dai

Modelling interactions between mitigation, adaptation and sustainable development

Science.gov (United States)

Reusser, D. E.; Siabatto, F. A. P.; Garcia Cantu Ros, A.; Pape, C.; Lissner, T.; Kropp, J. P.

2012-04-01

Managing the interdependence of climate mitigation, adaptation and sustainable development requires a good understanding of the dominant socioecological processes that have determined the pathways in the past. Key variables include water and food availability which depend on climate and overall ecosystem services, as well as energy supply and social, political and economic conditions. We present our initial steps to build a system dynamic model of nations that represents a minimal set of relevant variables of the socio- ecological development. The ultimate goal of the modelling exercise is to derive possible future scenarios and test those for their compatibility with sustainability boundaries. Where dynamics go beyond sustainability boundaries intervention points in the dynamics can be searched.

Assessment of the potential of state-of-the-art biomass technologies in contributing to a sustainable SADC regional mitigation energy scenario[Southern African Development Community

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yamba, F.D.; Matsika, E. [Centre for Energy, Environment and Engineering Zambia, Lusaka (Zambia)

2003-09-01

Southern Africa's energy supply is based on power sector collaboration - the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP). SAPP was created in 1995 through an inter-utility memorandum of understanding among 12 of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) utilities including Congo DR. The aims of SAPP are: To increase regional security of supply; To smoothen load curves; To engender economies of scale in the supply base; To increase revenue for exporting countries by opening up a ready market; To share power to meet national shortfalls and to off set temporary deficits in the medium term, and in the long term to adopt and implement power sharing as an operational strategy aimed at maximising financial and environmental benefits. Currently, SAPP has an operational installed capacity of 45.000 MW, of which 84% is thermal, predominantly coal based, which represents 79% of the total supply. 16% of the total SAPP interconnected supply is hydro, while the contribution from biomass is currently non-existent. The sugar industry in Southern Africa can significantly alter this picture. Increased competitive pressures serve as economic incentives for the sugar industry to diversify their product portfolio by investing in renewable energy applications. Of the new state-of-the-art biomass based technologies available Condensing Extraction Steam Turbine (CEST) is the most promising. Application of CEST technologies in Southern Africa will modestly contribute towards a sustainable energy supply mitigation scenario. If implemented, the contribution of bioenergy will increase from 0.5% for the baseline situation, to 2.5% in 2030 and 3.0% in 2050. This scenario will also yield global environmental benefits potential through saving of GHG reductions to 14 million tonnes CO{sub 2} in 2030 and 20 million tonnes CO{sub 2} in 2050. Furthermore, this paper produces a monogram which will assist investors in making decisions whether to invest in the Kyoto Protocols Clean Development

Rhythm and theoretical perception of climate change during the 21st century using CMIP5 simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Chavaillaz, Yann; Joussaume, Sylvie; Braconnot, Pascale; Vautard, Robert

2014-05-01

In most studies, climate change is approached by focusing on the evolution between a fixed current baseline and future, emphasizing stronger warming as we move further from the current climate. This long-term vision is used in order to characterize quantitatively the magnitude and expected effects of mitigation policies across the globe. In this study, an alternative approach more focused on adaptation is envisaged. It considers the rhythm of climate change by following it up with a running baseline over periods of 20 years, defining the time evolution of the speed at which climate changes. Comparing this speed with the variability of the previous 20 years, our work also aims to give an idea on how fast the climate changes from the recent year-to-year variability. This represents a theoretical approach of perception of climate change, as a 20-year period can illustrate the memory of a generation. In this way, we also evaluate how much adapting to the recent past 20 years is sufficient to cope with the expected changes of the coming ones. As a result, we estimate the stress on adaptation needs over the 21st century. Here we are mainly interested on mean and variability of surface air temperature and precipitations. A multi-model study based on CMIP5 RCP8.5 scenario is conducted. Over the 21st century, important changes occur in terms of surface air temperature. These are mainly characterized by an increase of warming speed resulting in its doubling at the end of the century (2071-2090) compared to the IPCC current baseline (1986-2005), although models exhibit a different climate sensitivity. Despite an unanimous stronger speed in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere than anywhere else, the speed can increase more rapidly in some other regions. When comparing the warming speed with year-to-year variability, the change of surface air temperature appears to be perceived stronger and sooner in tropical areas than in any other regions, especially in South-East Asia

Neo-deterministic definition of earthquake hazard scenarios: a multiscale application to India

Science.gov (United States)

Peresan, Antonella; Magrin, Andrea; Parvez, Imtiyaz A.; Rastogi, Bal K.; Vaccari, Franco; Cozzini, Stefano; Bisignano, Davide; Romanelli, Fabio; Panza, Giuliano F.; Ashish, Mr; Mir, Ramees R.

2014-05-01

The development of effective mitigation strategies requires scientifically consistent estimates of seismic ground motion; recent analysis, however, showed that the performances of the classical probabilistic approach to seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) are very unsatisfactory in anticipating ground shaking from future large earthquakes. Moreover, due to their basic heuristic limitations, the standard PSHA estimates are by far unsuitable when dealing with the protection of critical structures (e.g. nuclear power plants) and cultural heritage, where it is necessary to consider extremely long time intervals. Nonetheless, the persistence in resorting to PSHA is often explained by the need to deal with uncertainties related with ground shaking and earthquakes recurrence. We show that current computational resources and physical knowledge of the seismic waves generation and propagation processes, along with the improving quantity and quality of geophysical data, allow nowadays for viable numerical and analytical alternatives to the use of PSHA. The advanced approach considered in this study, namely the NDSHA (neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment), is based on the physically sound definition of a wide set of credible scenario events and accounts for uncertainties and earthquakes recurrence in a substantially different way. The expected ground shaking due to a wide set of potential earthquakes is defined by means of full waveforms modelling, based on the possibility to efficiently compute synthetic seismograms in complex laterally heterogeneous anelastic media. In this way a set of scenarios of ground motion can be defined, either at national and local scale, the latter considering the 2D and 3D heterogeneities of the medium travelled by the seismic waves. The efficiency of the NDSHA computational codes allows for the fast generation of hazard maps at the regional scale even on a modern laptop computer. At the scenario scale, quick parametric studies can be easily

An integrated assessment of energy-water nexus at the state level in the United States: Projections and analyses under different scenarios through 2095

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, L.; Patel, P. L.; Hejazi, M. I.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Zhou, Y.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.

2013-12-01

, while U.S. electric-sector water withdrawals are projected to decline by 8.6% - 89% by 2095 and water consumptions are projected to increase by 14% - 101%. Some regional patterns could be observed when analyzing the state-level results spatially. Under the climate mitigation policy (RCP4.5) scenario, nuclear power plants contribute heavily to total electric-sector water withdrawal and consumption in Eastern U.S., while under the reference scenario, coal power plants are the primary water users in Eastern U.S. In the reference scenario, Eastern U.S. is projected to experience substantial drops in water withdrawals, while the Western U.S. will likely endure a moderate increase over the century. The highly-resolved nature of this study both geographically and technologically provides a useful platform to address scientific and policy relevant and emerging issues at the heart of the water-energy nexus in the U.S. Although this study is focused on the U.S., it is performed in the context of the global framework of GCAM where local changes can propagate to influence decisions in other regions outside of the U.S. and vice versa.

Projected US timber and primary forest product market impacts of climate change mitigation through timber set-asides

Science.gov (United States)

Prakash Nepal; Peter J. Ince; Kenneth E. Skog; Sun J. Chang

2013-01-01

Whereas climate change mitigation involving payments to forest landowners for accumulating carbon on their land may increase carbon stored in forests, it will also affect timber supply and prices. This study estimated the effect on US timber and primary forest product markets of hypothetical timber set-aside scenarios where US forest landowners would be paid to forego...

Combating the effects of climatic change on forests by mitigation strategies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dieter Matthias

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Forests occur across diverse biomes, each of which shows a specific composition of plant communities associated with the particular climate regimes. Predicted future climate change will have impacts on the vulnerability and productivity of forests; in some regions higher temperatures will extend the growing season and thus improve forest productivity, while changed annual precipitation patterns may show disadvantageous effects in areas, where water availability is restricted. While adaptation of forests to predicted future climate scenarios has been intensively studied, less attention was paid to mitigation strategies such as the introduction of tree species well adapted to changing environmental conditions. Results We simulated the development of managed forest ecosystems in Germany for the time period between 2000 and 2100 under different forest management regimes and climate change scenarios. The management regimes reflect different rotation periods, harvesting intensities and species selection for reforestations. The climate change scenarios were taken from the IPCC's Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES. We used the scenarios A1B (rapid and successful economic development and B1 (high level of environmental and social consciousness combined with a globally coherent approach to a more sustainable development. Our results indicate that the effects of different climate change scenarios on the future productivity and species composition of German forests are minor compared to the effects of forest management. Conclusions The inherent natural adaptive capacity of forest ecosystems to changing environmental conditions is limited by the long life time of trees. Planting of adapted species and forest management will reduce the impact of predicted future climate change on forests.

Interrogation and mitigation of polarization effects for standard and birefringent FBGs

Science.gov (United States)

Ibrahim, Selwan K.; Van Roosbroeck, Jan; O'Dowd, John A.; Van Hoe, Bram; Lindner, Eric; Vlekken, Johan; Farnan, Martin; Karabacak, Devrez M.; Singer, Johannes M.

2016-05-01

Optical sensors based on Fiber Bragg Gratings (FBGs) are used in several applications and industries. Several inscription techniques and type of fibers can be used. However, depending on the writing process, type of fiber used and the packaging of the sensor a Polarization Dependent Frequency Shift (PDFS) can often be observed with polarized tunable laser based optical interrogators. Here we study the PDFS of the FBG peak for the different FBG types. A PDFS of 20pm was observed across the FBGs. To mitigate and reduce this effect we propose a polarization mitigation technique which relies on a synchronous polarization switch to reduce the effect typically by a factor greater than 4. In other scenarios the sensor itself is designed to be birefringent (Bi-FBG) to allow pressure and/or simultaneous temperature and strain measurements. Using the same polarization switch we demonstrate how we can interrogate the Bi-FBGs with high accuracy to enable high performance of such sensors to be achievable.

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City Under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Vink, Jan K.; Horton, Radley M.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A.; Francis, Joe D.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information necessary to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. This study has derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. We adopt a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projects heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporate a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimate future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3331 in the 2080s compared to 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006.These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York, and highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks.

Analysis of carbon mitigation technology to 2050 in Japan through integrated energy economic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Komiyama, Ryoichi; Suzuki, Kengo; Nagatomi, Yu; Matsuo, Yuji; Suehiro, Shigeru

2011-01-01

This paper describes the outline of integrated energy economic model and calculated result concerning the outlook of energy and carbon dioxide emissions in Japan to 2050. The energy model developed in this paper is integrated one which consistently combines econometric model endogenously generating socio-economic outlook and bottom-up type technology model, MARKAL, identifying cost-minimizing optimal mix of various energy technologies. In reference scenario which imposes no carbon emissions constraint, CO 2 emission in 2050 will decrease by approximately 40% from the level of emissions in 2005. In carbon-constraints scenario, imposing emissions cap of 60% reduction by 2050 from the emissions in 2005, natural gas-fired power plant equipped with CCS and renewable energy are expected to expand its portion in power generation mix. In transportation sector on this scenario, clean energy vehicles such as electric vehicle (EV) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (FCV) will be deployed and contribute to mitigate CO 2 emissions. (author)

Combined acoustical and visual performance of noise barriers in mitigating the environmental impact of motorways.

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Like; Kang, Jian

2016-02-01

This study investigated the overall performance of noise barriers in mitigating environmental impact of motorways, taking into consideration their effects on reducing noise and visual intrusions of moving traffic, but also potentially inducing visual impact themselves. A laboratory experiment was carried out, using computer-visualised video scenes and motorway traffic noise recordings to present experimental scenarios covering two traffic levels, two distances of receiver to road, two types of background landscape, and five barrier conditions including motorway only, motorway with tree belt, motorways with 3 m timber barrier, 5m timber barrier, and 5m transparent barrier. Responses from 30 participants of university students were gathered and perceived barrier performance analysed. The results show that noise barriers were always beneficial in mitigating environmental impact of motorways, or made no significant changes in environmental quality when the impact of motorways was low. Overall, barriers only offered similar mitigation effect as compared to tree belt, but showed some potential to be more advantageous when traffic level went high. 5m timber barrier tended to perform better than the 3m one at the distance of 300 m but not at 100 m possibly due to its negative visual effect when getting closer. The transparent barrier did not perform much differently from the timber barriers but tended to be the least effective in most scenarios. Some low positive correlations were found between aesthetic preference for barriers and environmental impact reduction by the barriers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

EnerFuture: Long Term Energy Scenarios 'Understanding our energy future'. Key graphs and analysis, Enerdata - Global Energy Forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-01-01

Enerdata analyses 4 future energy scenarios accounting for 2 economic growth assumptions combined with 2 alternative carbon emission mitigation policies. In this study, a series of analyses supported by graphs assess the energy consumption and intensity forecasts in emerging and developed markets. In particular, one analysis is dedicated to energies competition, including gas, coal and renewable energies. (authors)

Implications for future survival of delta smelt from four climate change scenarios for the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, California

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Larry R.; Bennett, William A.; Wagner, R. Wayne; Morgan-King, Tara; Knowles, Noah; Feyrer, Frederick; Schoellhamer, David H.; Stacey, Mark T.; Dettinger, Mike

2013-01-01

Changes in the position of the low salinity zone, a habitat suitability index, turbidity, and water temperature modeled from four 100-year scenarios of climate change were evaluated for possible effects on delta smelt Hypomesus transpacificus, which is endemic to the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. The persistence of delta smelt in much of its current habitat into the next century appears uncertain. By mid-century, the position of the low salinity zone in the fall and the habitat suitability index converged on values only observed during the worst droughts of the baseline period (1969–2000). Projected higher water temperatures would render waters historically inhabited by delta smelt near the confluence of the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers largely uninhabitable. However, the scenarios of climate change are based on assumptions that require caution in the interpretation of the results. Projections like these provide managers with a useful tool for anticipating long-term challenges to managing fish populations and possibly adapting water management to ameliorate those challenges.

The potential contribution to climate change mitigation from temporary carbon storage in biomaterials

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Susanne Vedel; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Nielsen, Per H.

2015-01-01

of biomaterials.The recently developed approach for quantifying the climate tipping potential (CTP) of emissions is used, with some adaption, to account for the value of temporary carbon storage. CTP values for short-, medium- and long-term carbon storage in chosen biomaterials are calculated for two possible...... future atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration development scenarios. The potential magnitude of the temporary carbon storage in biomaterials is estimated by considering the global polymer production being biobased in the future.Both sets of CTP values show the same trend; storage which releases...... contributes with negative CTP values, which means mitigation. The longer the duration of the storage, the larger the mitigation potential.Temporary carbon storage in biomaterials has a potential for contributing to avoid or postpone the crossing of a climatic target level of 450 ppm CO2e, depending on GHG...

Assessing the economic impact of North China’s water scarcity mitigation strategy : a multi - region, water - extended computable general equilibrium analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Qin, Changbo; Qin, C.; Su, Zhongbo; Bressers, Johannes T.A.; Jia, Y.; Wang, H.

2013-01-01

This paper describes a multi-region computable general equilibrium model for analyzing the effectiveness of measures and policies for mitigating North China’s water scarcity with respect to three different groups of scenarios. The findings suggest that a reduction in groundwater use would negatively

Nervous systems and scenarios for the invertebrate-to-vertebrate transition.

Science.gov (United States)

Holland, Nicholas D

2016-01-05

Older evolutionary scenarios for the origin of vertebrates often gave nervous systems top billing in accordance with the notion that a big-brained Homo sapiens crowned a tree of life shaped mainly by progressive evolution. Now, however, tree thinking positions all extant organisms equidistant from the tree's root, and molecular phylogenies indicate that regressive evolution is more common than previously suspected. Even so, contemporary theories of vertebrate origin still focus on the nervous system because of its functional importance, its richness in characters for comparative biology, and its central position in the two currently prominent scenarios for the invertebrate-to-vertebrate transition, which grew out of the markedly neurocentric annelid and enteropneust theories of the nineteenth century. Both these scenarios compare phyla with diverse overall body plans. This diversity, exacerbated by the scarcity of relevant fossil data, makes it challenging to establish plausible homologies between component parts (e.g. nervous system regions). In addition, our current understanding of the relation between genotype and phenotype is too preliminary to permit us to convert gene network data into structural features in any simple way. These issues are discussed here with special reference to the evolution of nervous systems during proposed transitions from invertebrates to vertebrates. © 2015 The Author(s).

Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

2008-12-01

Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

Vulnerability of carbon storage in North American boreal forests to wildfires during the 21st century

Science.gov (United States)

Balshi, M. S.; McGuire, Anthony David; Duffy, P.; Flannigan, M.; Kicklighter, David W.; Melillo, J.

2009-01-01

The boreal forest contains large reserves of carbon. Across this region, wildfires influence the temporal and spatial dynamics of carbon storage. In this study, we estimate fire emissions and changes in carbon storage for boreal North America over the 21st century. We use a gridded data set developed with a multivariate adaptive regression spline approach to determine how area burned varies each year with changing climatic and fuel moisture conditions. We apply the process-based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to evaluate the role of future fire on the carbon dynamics of boreal North America in the context of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and climate in the A2 and B2 emissions scenarios of the CGCM2 global climate model. Relative to the last decade of the 20th century, decadal total carbon emissions from fire increase by 2.5–4.4 times by 2091–2100, depending on the climate scenario and assumptions about CO2fertilization. Larger fire emissions occur with warmer climates or if CO2 fertilization is assumed to occur. Despite the increases in fire emissions, our simulations indicate that boreal North America will be a carbon sink over the 21st century if CO2 fertilization is assumed to occur in the future. In contrast, simulations excluding CO2 fertilization over the same period indicate that the region will change to a carbon source to the atmosphere, with the source being 2.1 times greater under the warmer A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. To improve estimates of wildfire on terrestrial carbon dynamics in boreal North America, future studies should incorporate the role of dynamic vegetation to represent more accurately post-fire successional processes, incorporate fire severity parameters that change in time and space, account for human influences through increased fire suppression, and integrate the role of other disturbances and their interactions with future fire regime.

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Q. Zhou

2018-01-01

Full Text Available As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China. Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID, driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5. The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing

Multi-criteria ranking of energy generation scenarios with Monte Carlo simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baležentis, Tomas; Streimikiene, Dalia

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Two advanced optimization models were applied for EU energy policy scenarios development. • Several advanced MCDA were applied for energy policy scenarios ranking: WASPAS, ARAS, TOPSIS. • A Monte Carlo simulation was applied for sensitivity analysis of scenarios ranking. • New policy insights in terms of energy scenarios forecasting were provided based on research conducted. - Abstract: Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are omnipresent in energy policy analysis. Even though IAMs can successfully handle uncertainty pertinent to energy planning problems, they render multiple variables as outputs of the modelling. Therefore, policy makers are faced with multiple energy development scenarios and goals. Specifically, technical, environmental, and economic aspects are represented by multiple criteria, which, in turn, are related to conflicting objectives. Preferences of decision makers need to be taken into account in order to facilitate effective energy planning. Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) tools are relevant in aggregating diverse information and thus comparing alternative energy planning options. The paper aims at ranking European Union (EU) energy development scenarios based on several IAMs with respect to multiple criteria. By doing so, we account for uncertainty surrounding policy priorities outside the IAM. In order to follow a sustainable approach, the ranking of policy options is based on EU energy policy priorities: energy efficiency improvements, increased use of renewables, reduction in and low mitigations costs of GHG emission. The ranking of scenarios is based on the estimates rendered by the two advanced IAMs relying on different approaches, namely TIAM and WITCH. The data are fed into the three MCDM techniques: the method of weighted aggregated sum/product assessment (WASPAS), the Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS) method, and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS). As MCDM techniques allow

Analysing the external supply chain risk driver competitiveness: a risk mitigation framework and business continuity plan.

Science.gov (United States)

Blos, Mauricio F; Wee, Hui-Ming; Yang, Joshua

2010-11-01

Innovation challenges for handling supply chain risks have become one of the most important drivers in business competitiveness and differentiation. This study analyses competitiveness at the external supply chain level as a driver of risks and provides a framework for mitigating these risks. The mitigation framework, also called the supply chain continuity framework, provides insight into six stages of the business continuity planning (BCP) process life cycle (risk mitigation management, business impact analysis, supply continuity strategy development, supply continuity plan development, supply continuity plan testing and supply continuity plan maintenance), together with the operational constructs: customer service, inventory management, flexibility, time to market, ordering cycle time and quality. The purpose of the BCP process life cycle and operational constructs working together is to emphasise the way in which a supply chain can deal with disruption risks and, consequently, bring competitive advantage. Future research will consider the new risk scenarios and analyse the consequences to promote the improvement of supply chain resilience.

Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Marengo, Jose A.; Ambrizzi, Tercio; Da Rocha, Rosmeri P.; Alves, Lincoln M.; Cuadra, Santiago V.; Valverde, Maria C.; Torres, Roger R.; Santos, Daniel C.; Ferraz, Simone E. T.

2010-11-01

Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961-1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071-2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5°N-15°S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6-8°C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4°C and in winter between 3 and 5°C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of

Heterogeneous world model and collaborative scenarios of transition to globally sustainable nuclear energy systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kuznetsov Vladimir

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The International Atomic Energy Agency's International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO is to help ensure that nuclear energy is available to contribute to meeting global energy needs of the 21st century in a sustainable manner. The INPRO task titled “Global scenarios” is to develop global and regional nuclear energy scenarios that lead to a global vision of sustainable nuclear energy in the 21st century. Results of multiple studies show that the criteria for developing sustainable nuclear energy cannot be met without innovations in reactor and nuclear fuel cycle technologies. Combining different reactor types and associated fuel chains creates a multiplicity of nuclear energy system arrangements potentially contributing to global sustainability of nuclear energy. In this, cooperation among countries having different policy regarding fuel cycle back end would be essential to bring sustainability benefits from innovations in technology to all interested users. INPRO has developed heterogeneous global model to capture countries’ different policies regarding the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle in regional and global scenarios of nuclear energy evolution and applied in a number of studies performed by participants of the project. This paper will highlight the model and major conclusions obtained in the studies.

Bi-national Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Basin climate change and hydrologic scenarios report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lavender, B.; Smith, J.V.; Koshida, G.; Mortsch, L.D. [eds.

1998-09-01

Climate experts in government, industry and academic institutions have put together a national assessment of how climate change will affect Canadians and their social, biological and economic environment over the next century. This volume documents the impacts and implications of climate change on the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Basin, and provides an analysis and assessment of various climate and hydrologic scenarios used for the Great Lakes - St. Lawrence Basin Project. As part of the analysis and assessment, results from the Canadian Climate Centre second-generation General Circulation Model and four transposition scenarios for both climate and hydrological resources are reviewed. The objective is to provide an indication of sensitivities and vulnerabilities of the region to climate, with a view to improve adaptation to potential climate changes. 25 tabs., 26 figs. figs.

Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

2014-04-01

Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

South Korean energy scenarios show how nuclear power can reduce future energy and environmental costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Sanghyun; Bradshaw, Corey J.A.; Brook, Barry W.

2014-01-01

South Korea is an important case study for understanding the future role of nuclear power in countries with on-going economic growth, and limited renewable energy resources. We compared quantitatively the sustainability of two ‘future-mapping’ exercises (the ‘Governmental’ scenario, which relies on fossil fuels, and the Greenpeace scenario, which emphasises renewable energy and excludes nuclear power). The comparison was based on a range of environmental and technological perspectives, and contrasted against two additional nuclear scenarios that instead envisage a dominant role for nuclear energy. Sustainability metrics included energy costs, external costs (greenhouse-gas emissions, air pollutants, land transformation, water consumption and discharge, and safety) and additional costs. The nuclear-centred scenarios yielded the lowest total cost per unit of final energy consumption by 2050 ($14.37 GJ −1 ), whereas the Greenpeace scenario has the highest ($25.36 GJ −1 ). We used probabilistic simulations based on multi-factor distributional sampling of impact and cost metrics to estimate the overlapping likelihoods among scenarios to understand the effect of parameter uncertainty on the integrated recommendations. Our simulation modelling implies that, despite inherent uncertainties, pursuing a large-scale expansion of nuclear-power capacity offers the most sustainable pathway for South Korea, and that adopting a nuclear-free pathway will be more costly and produce more greenhouse-gas emissions. - Highlights: • Nuclear power has a key role to play in mitigating greenhouse-gas emissions. • The Greenpeace scenario has higher total external cost than the nuclear scenarios. • The nuclear-centred scenarios offer the most sustainable option for South Korea. • The similar conclusions are likely to apply to other Asian countries

Discrepancies in historical emissions point to a wider 2020 gap between 2 deg. C benchmarks and aggregated national mitigation pledges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogelj, Joeri; Hare, William; Chen, Claudine; Meinshausen, Malte

2011-01-01

Aggregations of greenhouse gas mitigation pledges by countries are frequently used to indicate whether resulting global emissions in 2020 will be 'on track' to limit global temperature increase to below specific warming levels such as 1.5 or 2 deg. C. We find that historical emission levels aggregated from data that are officially reported by countries to the UNFCCC are lower than independent global emission estimates, such as the IPCC SRES scenarios. This discrepancy in historical emissions could substantially widen the gap between 2020 pledges and 2020 benchmarks, as the latter tend to be derived from scenarios that share similar historical emission levels to IPCC SRES scenarios. Three methods for resolving this discrepancy, here called 'harmonization', are presented and their influence on 'gap' estimates is discussed. Instead of a 3.4-9.2 GtCO 2 eq shortfall in emission reductions by 2020 compared with the 44 GtCO 2 eq benchmark, the actual gap might be as high as 5.4-12.5 GtCO 2 eq (a 22-88% increase of the gap) if this historical discrepancy is accounted for. Not applying this harmonization step when using 2020 emission benchmarks could lead to an underestimation of the insufficiency of current mitigation pledges.

The impact of residential, commercial, and transport energy demand uncertainties in Asia on climate change mitigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koljonen, Tiina; Lehtilä, Antti

2012-01-01

Energy consumption in residential, commercial and transport sectors have been growing rapidly in the non-OECD Asian countries over the last decades, and the trend is expected to continue over the coming decades as well. However, the per capita projections for energy demand in these particular sectors often seem to be very low compared to the OECD average until 2050, and it is clear that the scenario assessments of final energy demands in these sectors include large uncertainties. In this paper, a sensitivity analysis have been carried out to study the impact of higher rates of energy demand growths in the non-OECD Asia on global mitigation costs. The long term energy and emission scenarios for China, India and South-East Asia have been contributed as a part of Asian Modeling Exercise (AME). The scenarios presented have been modeled by using a global TIMES-VTT energy system model, which is based on the IEA-ETSAP TIMES energy system modeling framework and the global ETSAP-TIAM model. Our scenario results indicate that the impacts of accelerated energy demand in the non-OECD Asia has a relatively small impact on the global marginal costs of greenhouse gas abatement. However, with the accelerated demand projections, the average per capita greenhouse gas emissions in the OECD were decreased while China, India, and South-East Asia increased their per capita greenhouse gas emissions. This indicates that the costs of the greenhouse gas abatement would especially increase in the OECD region, if developing Asian countries increase their final energy consumption more rapidly than expected. - Highlights: ► Scenarios of final energy demands in developing Asia include large uncertainties. ► Impact of accelerated Asian energy demand on global mitigation costs is quite low. ► Accelerated Asian energy consumption increases GHG abatement costs in the OECD. ► 3.7 W/m 3 target is feasible in costs even with accelerated Asian energy demands. ► 2.6 W/m 2 target is beyond

Climate change under a scenario near 1.5 °C of global warming: monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Schewe

2011-03-01

Full Text Available We present climatic consequences of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs using the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3α, which contains a statistical-dynamical atmosphere and a three-dimensional ocean model. We compare those with emulations of 19 state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM using MAGICC6. The RCPs are designed as standard scenarios for the forthcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report to span the full range of future greenhouse gas (GHG concentrations pathways currently discussed. The lowest of the RCP scenarios, RCP3-PD, is projected in CLIMBER-3α to imply a maximal warming by the middle of the 21st century slightly above 1.5 °C and a slow decline of temperatures thereafter, approaching today's level by 2500. We identify two mechanisms that slow down global cooling after GHG concentrations peak: The known inertia induced by mixing-related oceanic heat uptake; and a change in oceanic convection that enhances ocean heat loss in high latitudes, reducing the surface cooling rate by almost 50%. Steric sea level rise under the RCP3-PD scenario continues for 200 years after the peak in surface air temperatures, stabilizing around 2250 at 30 cm. This contrasts with around 1.3 m of steric sea level rise by 2250, and 2 m by 2500, under the highest scenario, RCP8.5. Maximum oceanic warming at intermediate depth (300–800 m is found to exceed that of the sea surface by the second half of the 21st century under RCP3-PD. This intermediate-depth warming persists for centuries even after surface temperatures have returned to present-day values, with potential consequences for marine ecosystems, oceanic methane hydrates, and ice-shelf stability. Due to an enhanced land-ocean temperature contrast, all scenarios yield an intensification of monsoon rainfall under global warming.

What factors influence mitigative capacity?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winkler, Harald; Baumert, Kevin; Blanchard, Odile; Burch, Sarah; Robinson, John

2007-01-01

This article builds on Yohe's seminal piece on mitigative capacity, which elaborates 'determinants' of mitigative capacity, also reflected in the IPCC's third assessment report. We propose a revised definition, where mitigative capacity is a country's ability to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions or enhance natural sinks. By 'ability' we mean skills, competencies, fitness, and proficiencies that a country has attained which can contribute to GHG emissions mitigation. A conceptual framework is proposed, linking mitigative capacity to a country's sustainable development path, and grouping the factors influencing mitigative capacity into three main sets: economic factors, institutional ones, and technology. Both quantitative and qualitative analysis of factors is presented, showing how these factors vary across countries. We suggest that it is the interplay between the three economic factors-income, abatement cost and opportunity cost-that shape mitigative capacity. We find that income is an important economic factor influencing mitigative capacity, while abatement cost is important in turning mitigative capacity into actual mitigation. Technology is a critical mitigative capacity, including the ability to absorb existing climate-friendly technologies or to develop innovative ones. Institutional factors that promote mitigative capacity include the effectiveness of government regulation, clear market rules, a skilled work force and public awareness. We briefly investigate such as high abatement cost or lack of political willingness that prevent mitigative capacity from being translated into mitigation

Nitrous Oxides Ozone Destructiveness Under Different Climate Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)