WorldWideScience

Sample records for century mitigation scenarios

  1. Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Vuuren, D P; Meinshausen, M; Plattner, G-K; Joos, F; Strassmann, K M; Smith, S J; Wigley, T M L; Raper, S C B; Riahi, K; de la Chesnaye, F; den Elzen, M G J; Fujino, J; Jiang, K; Nakicenovic, N; Paltsev, S; Reilly, J M

    2008-10-01

    Estimates of 21st Century global-mean surface temperature increase have generally been based on scenarios that do not include climate policies. Newly developed multigas mitigation scenarios, based on a wide range of modeling approaches and socioeconomic assumptions, now allow the assessment of possible impacts of climate policies on projected warming ranges. This article assesses the atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, radiative forcing, and temperature increase for these new scenarios using two reduced-complexity climate models. These scenarios result in temperature increase of 0.5-4.4 degrees C over 1990 levels or 0.3-3.4 degrees C less than the no-policy cases. The range results from differences in the assumed stringency of climate policy and uncertainty in our understanding of the climate system. Notably, an average minimum warming of approximately 1.4 degrees C (with a full range of 0.5-2.8 degrees C) remains for even the most stringent stabilization scenarios analyzed here. This value is substantially above previously estimated committed warming based on climate system inertia alone. The results show that, although ambitious mitigation efforts can significantly reduce global warming, adaptation measures will be needed in addition to mitigation to reduce the impact of the residual warming. PMID:18838680

  2. Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st century. Exploration of baseline development and mitigation options

    OpenAIRE

    Vuuren DP van; Fengqi Zhou; Vries HJM de; Kejun Jiang; Graveland C; Yun Li; Energy Research Institute, Beijing; MNV

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of the study reported here was to explore possible baseline developments and available options for mitigating emissions in China. The first part of the report deals with an analysis and overview of available data on historic energy production and consumption trends and current energy resources. Special attention was paid to the 1995-2000 period, in which the trend of Chinese carbon dioxide emissions seems to have temporarily reversed. The major part of the project focused at devel...

  3. Energy scenarios for the 21. century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) has adopted a scenario approach in developing its energy outlook to 2025. These scenarios can be used in developing strategies to optimize opportunities and avoid the dangers that often accompany the more deterministic approach to forecasting. The scenarios are not predictions, but are instead feasible outcomes for the future. They encompass 5 major areas of uncertainty for the world energy market through 2025 that impact energy demand and fuel mix. These include the economy, technology, energy policy, resource availability, and market structure. The drivers for the energy scenarios are the environment, demography, economics, culture geopolitics and technology. The paper referred to the world energy market, the OECD energy markets, the non-OECD energy markets and the FSU energy markets under 3 energy scenarios including: (1) the material world in which the new economy drives the global economy, (2) a very dark Orwellian world in which there is a rise in terrorism and a breakdown in international cooperation, and (3) a utopia in which the major powers become increasingly serious about achieving sustainable development. 22 refs., 48 figs

  4. Ambitious mitigation scenarios for Germany: A participatory approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper addresses the challenge of engaging civil society stakeholders in the development process of ambitious mitigation scenarios that are based on formal energy system modeling, allowing for the explicit attachment of normative considerations to technology-focused mitigation options. It presents the definition and model results for a set of mitigation scenarios for Germany that achieve 85% CO2 emission reduction in 2050 relative to 1990. During consecutive dialogues, civil society stakeholders from the transport and electricity sector framed the definition of boundary conditions for the energy-economy model REMIND-D and evaluated the scenarios with regard to plausibility and social acceptance implications. Even though the limited scope of this research impedes inferential conclusions on the German energy transition as a whole, it demonstrates that the technological solutions to the mitigation problem proposed by the model give rise to significant societal and political implications that deem at least as challenging as the mere engineering aspects of innovative technologies. These insights underline the importance of comprehending mitigation of energy-related CO2 emissions as a socio-technical transition embedded in a political context. - Highlights: ► Preferences of German civil society stakeholders are elicited in dialogues. ► Three scenarios represent likely, desirable and controversial key developments. ► A carbon lock-in from freight transport and coal electrification is deemed likely. ► Stakeholders advocate major paradigm shifts for resolving the carbon lock-in. ► Institutional and societal factors are decisive for achieving ambitious mitigation.

  5. Scenarios for the risk of hunger in the twenty-first century using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are being developed internationally for cross-sectoral assessments of climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. These are five scenarios that include both qualitative and quantitative information for mitigation and adaptation challenges to climate change. In this study, we quantified scenarios for the risk of hunger in the 21st century using SSPs, and clarified elements that influence future hunger risk. There were two primary findings: (1) risk of hunger in the 21st-century greatly differed among five SSPs; and (2) population growth, improvement in the equality of food distribution within a country, and increases in food consumption mainly driven by income growth greatly influenced future hunger risk and were important elements in its long-term assessment. (letter)

  6. Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vichi, Marcello; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Manzini, Elisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Fogli, Pier Giuseppe [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Alessandri, Andrea [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); ENEA, Rome (Italy); Patara, Lavinia [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), Kiel (Germany); Scoccimarro, Enrico [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

    2011-11-15

    Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric ''target'' concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the

  7. Climate impacts of the ECLIPSE future emissions mitigation scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Laura; Collins, Bill; Olivie, Dirk; Cherian, Ribu; Quaas, Johannes; Myhre, Gunnar; Hodnebrog, Oivind; Skeie, Ragnhild

    2016-04-01

    We investigate the possible near-term climate benefits from mitigating aerosols, ozone and methane. The ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants) project developed a realistic emissions inventory based on current legislation for 2005-2050 (CLE), and a corresponding mitigation scenario designed to be beneficial for both air quality and short-term climate impact (MIT). We determine the climate impacts of the MIT scenario, focussing on the period 2040-2050. Four climate models with interactive chemistry and aerosols (HadGEM, NorESM, CESM-CAM4 and ECHAM-HAM) are used to provide multi-model ensembles of both atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations, to separate the effective radiative forcing (ERF) and the climate response. The ERFs are derived from the atmosphere-only simulations. In all models the MIT scenario leads to a negative global ERF which is driven mainly by methane emissions reductions. There is variability between models in the relative importance of methane and aerosol emissions reductions, and in the sign of ERF response to aerosol emissions reductions. The climate response to MIT is derived from the coupled simulations. In all models, MIT results in a decrease in the global mean temperature compared to CLE, with a model mean decrease of 0.22°C. The temperature decrease is seen most strongly in the Northern Hemisphere and is particularly strong in the Arctic. The ensembles of coupled-ocean simulations have therefore enabled us to identify a robust cooling signal from the air quality mitigation scenarios, which can be attributed to the different species using the ERFs.

  8. Analysis of disruption scenarios and their possible mitigation in ITER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Database analyses have been carried out to derive physics guidelines for the shortest current quench time and their waveforms as well as the product of halo fraction with toroidal peaking factor arising from disruptions in ITER. Several representative disruption scenarios are specified. Disruption simulations with the DINA code and electromagnetic load (EM) analyses with 3D finite element method (FEM) code are performed for these scenarios. Reasonable margins are confirmed in the forces on in-vessel components due to induced eddy and halo currents for these representative scenarios. It is noted that an increase in the current decay time by a factor of 1.5-2 can reduce the force due to eddy currents significantly at the expense of small increase of halo currents. This condition can be realized by injection of (1-2)x1024 atoms of neon without generating runaway electrons. In the massive injection scheme, the response time can be very fast, and the mitigation for only a small fraction of the total number of disruptions (≤ (3-4)%) is missed, while the force on the gas inlet valve becomes high (≥300 kg). In the moderate injection case, the response time is rather slow (≥100 ms) and the mitigation for a substantial fraction of the total number of disruptions (40-50)% is missed, while the force on the inlet valve can be easily handled. (author)

  9. Effort sharing in ambitious, global climate change mitigation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ekholm, Tommi [TKK Helsinki University of Technology, Espoo (Finland); Soimakallio, Sampo; Syri, Sanna; Savolainen, Ilkka [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, P.O. Box 1000, FIN-02044 VTT (Finland); Moltmann, Sara; Hoehne, Niklas [Ecofys Germany GmbH, Cologne (Germany)

    2010-04-15

    The post-2012 climate policy framework needs a global commitment to deep greenhouse gas emission cuts. This paper analyzes reaching ambitious emission targets up to 2050, either or from 1990 levels, and how the economic burden from mitigation efforts could be equitably shared between countries. The scenarios indicate a large low-cost mitigation potential in electricity and industry, while reaching low emission levels in international transportation and agricultural emissions might prove difficult. The two effort sharing approaches, Triptych and Multistage, were compared in terms of equitability and coherence. Both approaches produced an equitable cost distribution between countries, with least developed countries having negative or low costs and more developed countries having higher costs. There is, however, no definitive solution on how the costs should be balanced equitably between countries. Triptych seems to be yet more coherent than other approaches, as it can better accommodate national circumstances. Last, challenges and possible hindrances to effective mitigation and equitable effort sharing are presented. The findings underline the significance of assumptions behind effort sharing on mitigation potentials and current emissions, the challenge of sharing the effort with uncertain future allowance prices and how inefficient markets might undermine the efficiency of a cap-and-trade system. (author)

  10. The role of HFCs in mitigating 21st century climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Xu

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available There is growing international interest in mitigating climate change during the early part of this century by reducing emissions of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs, in addition to reducing emissions of CO2. The SLCPs include methane (CH4, black carbon aerosols (BC, tropospheric ozone (O3 and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs. Recent studies have estimated that by mitigating emissions of CH4, BC, and O3 using available technologies, about 0.5 to 0.6 °C warming can be avoided by mid-21st century. Here we show that avoiding production and use of high-GWP (global warming potential HFCs by using technologically feasible low-GWP substitutes to meet the increasing global demand can avoid as much as another 0.5 °C warming by the end of the century. This combined mitigation of SLCPs would cut the cumulative warming since 2005 by 50% at 2050 and by 60% at 2100 from the CO2-only mitigation scenarios, significantly reducing the rate of warming and lowering the probability of exceeding the 2 °C warming threshold during this century.

  11. Electric Vehicle Scenarios for India: Implications for mitigation and development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Bhaskar, Kalyan

    2014-01-01

    electricity sector, CO2 mitigation and reduction in local air pollution. The Indian government has recently launched a national electricity mobility mission to promote EVs. There is, however, much uncertainty in terms of the penetration of EVs in the transport sector, particularly those related to...... infrastructure and policies. While the literature on EVs has focused more on the role of electric cars, it could be electric two-wheelers which could make early headway, as is the case in China where nearly 120 million such vehicles had been sold by the end of 2012. Three scenarios (Business as Usual (BAU...

  12. Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen, B.; Meibom, P. [Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark); Kuemmel, B. [Royal Agricultural and Veterinary Univ., Tastrup (Denmark)

    1999-01-01

    The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

  13. Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

  14. Understanding the contribution of non-carbon dioxide gases in deep mitigation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gernaat, David; Calvin, Katherine V.; Lucas, Paul; Luderer, Gunnar; Otto, Sander; Rao, Shilpa; Strefler, Jessica; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-07-01

    The combined 2010 emissions of methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and the fluorinated gasses (F-gas) account for about 20-30% of total emissions and about 30% of radiative forcing. At the moment, most studies looking at reaching ambitious climate targets project the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) to be reduced to zero (or less) by the end of the century. As for non-CO2 gases, the mitigation potential seem to be more constrained, we find that by the end of the century in the current deep mitigation scenarios non-CO2 emissions could form the lion’s share of remaining greenhouse gas emissions. In order to support effective climate policy strategies, in this paper we provide a more in-depth look at the role of non-CO2¬ emission sources (CH4, N2O and F-gases) in achieving deep mitigation targets (radiative forcing target of 2.8 W/m2 in 2100). Specifically, we look at the sectorial mitigation potential and the remaining non-CO2 emissions. By including a set of different models, we provide some insights into the associated uncertainty. Most of the remaining methane emissions in 2100 in the climate mitigation scenario come from the livestock sector. Strong reductions are seen in the energy supply sector across all models. For N2O, less reduction potential is seen compared to methane and the sectoral differences are larger between the models. The paper shows that the assumptions on remaining non-CO2 emissions are critical for the feasibility of reaching ambitious climate targets and the associated costs.

  15. Mitigation of maximum world oil production: Shortage scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hirsch, Robert L. [Management Information Services, Inc., 723 Fords Landing Way, Alexandria, VA 22314 (United States)

    2008-02-15

    A framework is developed for planning the mitigation of the oil shortages that will be caused by world oil production reaching a maximum and going into decline. To estimate potential economic impacts, a reasonable relationship between percent decline in world oil supply and percent decline in world GDP was determined to be roughly 1:1. As a limiting case for decline rates, giant fields were examined. Actual oil production from Europe and North America indicated significant periods of relatively flat oil production (plateaus). However, before entering its plateau period, North American oil production went through a sharp peak and steep decline. Examination of a number of future world oil production forecasts showed multi-year rollover/roll-down periods, which represent pseudoplateaus. Consideration of resource nationalism posits an Oil Exporter Withholding Scenario, which could potentially overwhelm all other considerations. Three scenarios for mitigation planning resulted from this analysis: (1) A Best Case, where maximum world oil production is followed by a multi-year plateau before the onset of a monatomic decline rate of 2-5% per year; (2) A Middling Case, where world oil production reaches a maximum, after which it drops into a long-term, 2-5% monotonic annual decline; and finally (3) A Worst Case, where the sharp peak of the Middling Case is degraded by oil exporter withholding, leading to world oil shortages growing potentially more rapidly than 2-5% per year, creating the most dire world economic impacts. (author)

  16. Hydrological Sensitivity of Land Use Scenarios for Climate Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boegh, E.; Friborg, T.; Hansen, K.; Jensen, R.; Seaby, L. P.

    2014-12-01

    Bringing atmospheric concentration to 550 ppm CO2 or below by 2100 will require large-scale changes to global and national energy systems, and potentially the use of land (IPCC, 2013) The Danish government aims at reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 40 % in 1990-2020 and energy consumption to be based on 100 % renewable energy by 2035. By 2050, GHG emissions should be reduced by 80-95 %. Strategies developed to reach these goals require land use change to increase the production of biomass for bioenergy, further use of catch crops, reduced nitrogen inputs in agriculture, reduced soil tillage, afforestation and establishment of permanent grass fields. Currently, solar radiation in the growing season is not fully exploited, and it is expected that biomass production for bioenergy can be supported without reductions in food and fodder production. Impacts of climate change on the hydrological sensitivity of biomass growth and soil carbon storage are however not known. The present study evaluates the hydrological sensitivity of Danish land use options for climate mitigation in terms of crop yields (including straw for bioenergy) and net CO2 exchange for wheat, barley, maize and clover under current and future climate conditions. Hydrological sensitivity was evaluated using the agrohydrological model Daisy. Simulations during current climate conditions were in good agreement with measured dry matter, crop nitrogen content and eddy covariance fluxes of water vapour and CO2. Climate scenarios from the European ENSEMBLES database were downscaled for simulating water, nitrogen and carbon balance for 2071-2100. The biomass potential generally increase, but water stress also increases in strength and extends over a longer period, thereby increasing sensitivity to water availability. The potential of different land use scenarios to maximize vegetation cover and biomass for climate mitigation is further discussed in relation to impacts on the energy- and water balance.

  17. Representative concentration pathways and mitigation scenarios for nitrous oxide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The challenges of mitigating nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are substantially different from those for carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), because nitrogen (N) is essential for food production, and over 80% of anthropogenic N2O emissions are from the agricultural sector. Here I use a model of emission factors of N2O to demonstrate the magnitude of improvements in agriculture and industrial sectors and changes in dietary habits that would be necessary to match the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) now being considered in the fifth assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Stabilizing atmospheric N2O by 2050, consistent with the most aggressive of the RCP mitigation scenarios, would require about 50% reductions in emission factors in all sectors and about a 50% reduction in mean per capita meat consumption in the developed world. Technologies exist to achieve such improved efficiencies, but overcoming social, economic, and political impediments for their adoption and for changes in dietary habits will present large challenges. (letter)

  18. Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James E.

    2000-01-01

    Evidence on a broad range of time scales, from Proterozoic to the most recent periods, shows that the Earth's climate responds sensitively to global forcings. In the past few decades the Earth's surface has warmed rapidly, apparently in response to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The conventional view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate in the 21st century. I will describe an alternate scenario that would slow the rate of global warming and reduce the danger of dramatic climate change. But reliable prediction of future climate change requires improved knowledge of the carbon cycle and global observations that allow interpretation of ongoing climate change.

  19. Sectoral Approaches to GHG Mitigation. Scenarios for integration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baron, R.

    2006-10-15

    This paper offers a preliminary analysis of several scenarios for integration of sectoral approaches in international and national climate policy. We consider four broad types of sectoral approaches: A global action, i.e. a unilateral move by industry to foster GHG improvements; A global agreement between industry and Parties to the UNFCCC; A series of national policies targeting a sector, with some intergovernmental coordination; A sectoral crediting mechanism whereby reductions recorded at a sector level may be eligible for emission credits. As a working assumption, all these approaches would seek to have direct, measurable impact on a sector's GHG emissions - other forms of international sector-based collaboration include technology agreements on research and development, and international information sharing efforts. We consider how each of these options would integrate in the existing climate regime, from the viewpoint of their effects on: Country-wide commitments; Kyoto Protocol mechanisms (including the treatment of international transactions); Domestic policy. It is difficult at this stage to define global sectoral approaches with any precision. In particular, we make no judgment about their environmental effectiveness. The analysis remains therefore exploratory. Some options described here may appear politically unrealistic: it is not clear, for instance, that governments would take a hands-off attitude towards a global action that involves important economic sectors. Other options may face technical implementation barriers, or prove difficult to negotiate internationally. The paper does not seek to provide definitive answers. Rather it highlights only some of the issues arising from four broad options. Our preliminary analysis brings the following questions: Would sectoral approaches allow geographical flexibility (emissions trading) and how would this interact with country commitments? If such flexibility were allowed, would it require new

  20. A new large initial condition ensemble to assess avoided impacts in a climate mitigation scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderson, B. M.; Tebaldi, C.; Knutti, R.; Oleson, K. W.

    2014-12-01

    It has recently been demonstrated that when considering timescales of up to 50 years, natural variability may play an equal role to anthropogenic forcing on subcontinental trends for a variety of climate indicators. Thus, for many questions assessing climate impacts on such time and spatial scales, it has become clear that a significant number of ensemble members may be required to produce robust statistics (and especially so for extreme events). However, large ensemble experiments to date have considered the role of variability in a single scenario, leaving uncertain the relationship between the forced climate trajectory and the variability about that path. To address this issue, we present a new, publicly available, 15 member initial condition ensemble of 21st century climate projections for the RCP 4.5 scenario using the CESM1.1 Earth System Model, which we propose as a companion project to the existing 40 member CESM large ensemble which uses the higher greenhouse gas emission future of RCP8.5. This provides a valuable data set for assessing what societal and ecological impacts might be avoided through a moderate mitigation strategy in contrast to a fossil fuel intensive future. We present some early analyses of these combined ensembles to assess to what degree the climate variability can be considered to combine linearly with the underlying forced response. In regions where there is no detectable relationship between the mean state and the variability about the mean trajectory, then linear assumptions can be trivially exploited to utilize a single ensemble or control simulation to characterize the variability in any scenario of interest. We highlight regions where there is a detectable nonlinearity in extreme event frequency, how far in the future they will be manifested and propose mechanisms to account for these effects.

  1. NEA Mitigation Studies for Short Warning Time Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbee, Brent; Syal, Megan Bruck; Gisler, Galen

    2016-01-01

    This talk describes current collaborative research efforts between NASA GSFC and the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) national labs (Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, and Sandia) to design systems and frameworks for robust responses to short warning time near-Earth asteroid (NEA) scenarios, in which we would have less than 10 years to respond to an NEA on its way to impact the Earth.

  2. The current biodiversity extinction event: scenarios for mitigation and recovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novacek, M J; Cleland, E E

    2001-05-01

    The current massive degradation of habitat and extinction of species is taking place on a catastrophically short timescale, and their effects will fundamentally reset the future evolution of the planet's biota. The fossil record suggests that recovery of global ecosystems has required millions or even tens of millions of years. Thus, intervention by humans, the very agents of the current environmental crisis, is required for any possibility of short-term recovery or maintenance of the biota. Many current recovery efforts have deficiencies, including insufficient information on the diversity and distribution of species, ecological processes, and magnitude and interaction of threats to biodiversity (pollution, overharvesting, climate change, disruption of biogeochemical cycles, introduced or invasive species, habitat loss and fragmentation through land use, disruption of community structure in habitats, and others). A much greater and more urgently applied investment to address these deficiencies is obviously warranted. Conservation and restoration in human-dominated ecosystems must strengthen connections between human activities, such as agricultural or harvesting practices, and relevant research generated in the biological, earth, and atmospheric sciences. Certain threats to biodiversity require intensive international cooperation and input from the scientific community to mitigate their harmful effects, including climate change and alteration of global biogeochemical cycles. In a world already transformed by human activity, the connection between humans and the ecosystems they depend on must frame any strategy for the recovery of the biota. PMID:11344295

  3. Evaluation of mitigation scenarios of climate change in the electric sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The electricity generation contributes to development and to improve the quality of life, But it is ones of the most important contributors to the Greenhouse Gas and particle emissions particularly in Cuba where 99.4% of electricity in the National Electric System is generated from fossil fuels. In the paper from mitigation measures three mitigation scenarios are evaluated for the Expansion of the Cuban electric system using DECADES Tools. Evaluated scenarios include the Use of 60% of the biomass potential, the combinations of this with nuclear power reactors, Hydraulic energy and combined cycle power plants. Finally in the paper the Greenhouse Gas level reduction, investment, fuel, operation and Maintenance costs and Carbon Intensity in generation are analyzed for evaluated mitigation Scenarios and conclusions are offered

  4. Thermal power - emerging scenario in the 21st Century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The developing countries have to ensure that their development in the new millennium is supported by a strong infrastructure to meet the challenges of this century where survival would be of the fittest. In India, globalization of economy will be the main thrust in this century. Today self reliance and determination is needed to develop, adopt and implement new technologies which are more efficient and eco-friendly. The economy of the country calls for a higher rate of growth in the power infrastructure. To ensure the momentum of 7 per cent overall growth in the economy, India need about 12-14 per cent growth in power generation. In power sector, selection of resources, systems, fuel options and appropriate technology would be major determinants that will decide the success for sustained development in the new century

  5. Renewable electricity generation in Germany: A meta-analysis of mitigation scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    German energy policy targets envision a share of electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E) of at least 80% in 2050. How can the transformation of the German electricity sector be achieved and at what costs? This paper addresses these questions by means of a meta-analysis of 10 recent model-based mitigation scenarios for Germany. It turns out that the scenarios exploit the three basic strategic options of increasing the share of RES-E – domestic RES-E generation, electricity demand reductions, and RES-E imports – to substantially different extents. Domestic RES-E generation increases in all scenarios, particularly from onshore and offshore wind. Scenarios that rely heavily on reducing electricity demand require a relatively low expansion of domestic RES-E generation. Despite detailed technical analyses, insights on the costs of the transformation remain limited. A discussion of underlying scenario assumptions reveals that it is unclear whether (i) RES-E and system integration technology development will be as cost-competitive as postulated, (ii) implicitly assumed institutional requirements will be realized, and (iii) relevant actors in the transformation process will be incentivized accordingly. Therefore, future research should pursue a thorough assessment of strategic options for transforming the German electricity system that consistently integrates technologies, institutions, and actors. - Highlights: • We analyze 10 mitigation scenarios for the Germany electricity sector. • They group into three distinct strategies for attaining high shares of renewables. • All scenarios suggest that high shares of wind onshore and offshore are necessary. • We critically discuss underlying assumption of the scenarios. • Future scenarios should consistently integrate technologies, actors and institutions

  6. Fuel conservation and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Passenger vehicles are the main consumers of gasoline in China. We established a bottom-up model which focuses on the simulation of energy consumptions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions growth by China’s passenger vehicle fleet. The fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation effects of five measures including constraining vehicle registration, reducing vehicle travel, strengthening fuel consumption rate (FCR) limits, vehicle downsizing and promoting electric vehicle (EV) penetration were evaluated. Based on the combination of these measures, the fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet were analyzed. Under reference scenario with no measures implemented, the fuel consumptions and life cycle GHG emissions will reach 520 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) and 2.15 billion tons in 2050, about 8.1 times the level in 2010. However, substantial fuel conservation can be achieved by implementing the measures. By implementing all five measures together, the fuel consumption will reach 138 Mtoe in 2030 and decrease to 126 Mtoe in 2050, which is only 37.1% and 24.3% of the consumption under reference scenario. Similar potential lies in GHG mitigation. The results and scenarios provided references for the Chinese government’s policy-making. -- Highlights: ► We established a bottom-up model to simulate the fuel consumptions and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions growth by China’s passenger vehicle fleet. ► Five measures including constraining vehicle registration, reducing vehicle travel, improving fuel efficiency, vehicle downsizing and promoting EV penetration were evaluated. ► The fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet were provided as references for policy-making.

  7. A Study on Energy-Related GHG Mitigation Scenario in Thailand

    OpenAIRE

    Weerin Wangjiraniran; Bundhit Eua-arporn

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this study is to explore the scenarios of energy-related greenhouse gas mitigation in Thailand to 2030. The picture with no change of government policy which is relied on the existing plan namely ‘reference scenario’ is simulated. Ambitious target of renewable energy deployment with the priority of energy supply security is adopted. Alternatively, a case with undergo progress of the committed plan namely 'case without plan' is also compared to reveal the impact of government ...

  8. Implications of greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios for the main Asian regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to limit global mean temperature increase, long-term greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced. This paper discusses the implications of greenhouse gas emission reductions for major Asian regions (China, India, Indonesia, South-East Asia, Japan and Korea) based on results from the IMAGE modelling framework. Energy use in regions and economic sectors is affected differently by ambitious climate policies. We find that the potential for emission reduction varies widely between regions. With respect to technology choices in the power sector, we find major application of CO2 storage in Indonesia and India, whereas Korea and India apply more solar and wind. Projections for Japan include a (debatable) large share of nuclear power. China and, India, and South-East Asia, show a diverse technology choice in the power sector. For the industry sector, we find that the recent rapid growth in China limits the potential for emission reduction in the next decades, assuming that recently built coal-based industry facilities are in use for the next decades. For the residential sector, the model results show that fewer households switch from traditional fuels to modern fuels in GHG mitigation scenarios. With respect to co-benefits, we find lower imports of fossil energy in mitigation scenarios and a clear reduction of air pollutant emissions. - Highlights: ► The potential for emission reduction varies widely between regions. ► Some regions have attractive CO2 storage capacity; others have low-cost solar/wind potential. ► The recent rapid growth of Chinese industry may limit emission reduction potential for decades. ► Fewer households switch from traditional fuels to modern fuels in mitigation scenarios. ► Mitigation scenarios show less fossil energy import and reduction of air pollutant emission.

  9. New learning scenarios for the 21st century related to Education, Culture and Technology

    OpenAIRE

    Yáñez, Cristina; Okada, Alexandra; Palau, Ramon

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a summary of proposals and new learning scenarios for the 21st century related to the theme of “Education, Culture and Technology”. These proposals and scenarios are based on the work conducted in 2014 by a group of experts from Andorra, Catalonia, the United States and the United Kingdom during the International Forum on Education and Technology (FIET) held in Tarragona, Spain. The main aim of this work is to analyze the interconnection between education and culture throu...

  10. The effectiveness of energy service demand reduction: A scenario analysis of global climate change mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A reduction of energy service demand is a climate mitigation option, but its effectiveness has never been quantified. We quantify the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and industry sectors using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model for the period 2015–2050 under various scenarios. There were two major findings. First, a 25% energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and basic material industry sectors would reduce the GDP loss induced by climate mitigation from 4.0% to 3.0% and from 1.2% to 0.7% in 2050 under the 450 ppm and 550 ppm CO2 equivalent concentration stabilization scenarios, respectively. Second, the effectiveness of a reduction in the building sector's energy service demand would be higher than those of the other sectors at the same rate of the energy service demand reduction. Furthermore, we also conducted a sensitivity analysis of different socioeconomic conditions, and the climate mitigation target was found to be a key determinant of the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction measures. Therefore, more certain climate mitigation targets would be useful for the decision makers who design energy service demand reduction measures. - Highlights: • The effectiveness of a reduction in energy service demand is quantified. • A 25% reduction in energy service demand would be equivalent to 1% of GDP in 2050. • Stringent mitigation increases the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction. • Effectiveness of a reduction in energy demand service is higher in the building sector

  11. Greenhouse gas mitigation potential from green harvested sugarcane scenarios in São Paulo State, Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brazil is a major sugarcane producer and São Paulo State cultivates 5.5 million hectares, close to 50% of Brazil's sugarcane area. The rapid increase in production has brought into question the sustainability of biofuels, especially considering the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated to the agricultural sector. Despite the significant progress towards the green harvest practices, 1.67 million hectares were still burned in São Paulo State during the 2011 harvest season. Here an emissions inventory for the life cycle of sugarcane agricultural production is estimated using IPCC methodologies, according to the agriculture survey data and remote sensing database. Our hypothesis is that 1.67 million hectares shall be converted from burned to green harvest scenarios up to years 2021 (rate 1), 2014 (rate 2) or 2029 (rate 3). Those conversions would represent a significant GHG mitigation, ranging from 50.5 to 70.9 megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2eq) up to 2050, depending on the conversion rate and the green harvest systems adopted: conventional (scenario S1) or conservationist management (scenario S2). We show that a green harvest scenario where crop rotation and reduced soil tillage are practiced has a higher mitigation potential (70.9 Mt CO2eq), which is already practiced in some of the sugarcane areas. Here we support the decision to not just stop burning prior to harvest, but also to consider other better practices in sugarcane areas to have a more sustainable sugarcane based ethanol production in the most dense cultivated sugarcane region in Brazil. -- Highlights: • Different management practices could result in quite different emissions. • Nitrogen fertilizer, pre-harvest burning and diesel were the main emissions sources. • GHG mitigation in sugarcane areas could vary from 50.5 to 70.9 Mt CO2eq up to 2050

  12. Greenhouse gas energy scenarios for Mexico in year 2020, and mitigation potential of renewable technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sheinbaum, Claudia; Robles, Guillermo; Rodriguez V, Luis [Instituto de Ingenieria de la UNAM, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Massera, Omar [UNAM, Michoacan (Mexico)

    2000-07-01

    This paper presents the structure of the Mexican Energy-Emission Scenario Model (MEESM). In explains the importance of developing a bottom-up model for GHG mitigation assessment in Mexico. Also, the paper presents results of CO{sub 2} mitigation scenarios for year 2020 for five renewable energy technologies: solar water heaters, geothermal, biomass, mini/micro hydro and wind power generation. The paper concludes by discussing the importance of simulation accounting bottom-up models as tools for GHG mitigation policies. [Spanish] Este articulo presenta la estructura del Modelo de Escenario de Emision de Energia Mexicano (MEESM). En el se explica la importancia de desarrollar un modelo organizacional de abajo hacia arriba para la evaluacion de la mitigacion del efecto invernadero en Mexico. El articulo presenta tambien los resultados de los escenarios de mitigacion de CO{sub 2} para el ano 2020 utilizando cinco tecnologias de energia renovable: calentadores solares de agua, geotermia, biomasa, y mini/micro generacion de energia por agua y viento. El articulo concluye con el analisis de la importancia de la simulacion tomando en cuenta modelos organizacionales de abajo hacia arriba como herramientas para las politicas de mitigacion del efecto invernadero.

  13. South Africa's greenhouse gas emissions under business-as-usual: The technical basis of 'Growth without Constraints' in the Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article describes the methodology for projecting business-as-usual GHG trajectory developed in technical work for South Africa's Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMSs), in particular the 'Growth without Constraints' (GWCs) scenario. Technically rigorous projections are important as developing countries define their commitment to act on mitigation relative to business-as-usual (BAU). The key drivers for the GWC scenario include GDP (both growth rate and composition), population, discount rate and technological change. GDP emerged as an important driver in the research for LTMS and further analysis. If South Africa's economy grows without constraints over the next few decades, GHG emissions will continue to escalate, multiplying more than four-fold by mid-century. There is little gain in energy efficiency, and emissions continue to be dominated by energy use and supply, the latter remaining coal-based in GWC. We analyse the projections (not predictions) in relation to various measures. The LTMS GWC scenario is compared to other projections, nationally and internationally. A broadly comparable projection is being used at national level, for electricity planning. When compared to projections from international models, we find that the assumptions about GDP growth rates are a key factor, and suggest that comparisons of global data-sets against national analyses is important. - Highlights: → Specifies business-as-usual GHG trajectory for South Africa's Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios. → Provides details on methodology, drivers of emissions and key parameters. → In a scenario of Growth without Constraints, emissions would quadruple by 2050. → Analysis of resulting emission projection, not a prediction. → Compares projections from other national and international models.

  14. Co2 emission scenarios for next centuries to obtain more complete simulations of the global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the framework of a punctual Modeling of the Greenhouse Effect (report RT/ERG/2001/1) it is necessary to set CO2 Emission Scenarios for the next Centuries in order to obtain the complete evolution of the global warming. Some methodologies are described to approach such long term previsions. From the demand side, the growth of the consumes (which are affected by population and development) is correlated (supply side) with the technical-economic-environmental Evaluation of the future diffusion of classic sources (experienced in the past centuries) and of new Technologies and renewable sources. The previsions of the world population Growth are derived from the UNFPA publications. The degree of economic Development of the world Population in the very long term is obtained by simulating the Evolution of the Population across four main Areas characterized by different pro-capita consumes. Using these criteria two different Scenarios have been set-up and put into comparison with the SRES Scenarios published in the Third Assessment Report-WG1 of the IPCC. The cut at the year 2100 of the SRES Scenarios is also discussed. Simulations of the Global Warming in the long term have been performed with the two scenarios. These results are discussed together with the results of the Simulations reported by IPCC

  15. Mitigation Policy Scenario of Space Debris Threat Related with National Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herdiansyah, Herdis; Frimawaty, Evy; Munir, Ahmad

    2016-02-01

    The development of air space recently entered a new phase, when the space issues correlated with the future of a country. In past time, the space authorization was related with advancing technology by many space mission and various satellite launchings, or it could be said that who ruled technology will rule the space. Therefore, the numerous satellites in the space could be a threat for the countries which are mainly located in the path of the satellite, especially in the equatorial region including Indonesia. This study aims to create a policy scenario in mitigating the threat of space debris. The results showed that although space debris was not threatened national security for now, but the potential and its impact on the future potentially harmful. The threats of orbit circulation for some experts considered as a threat for national security, because its danger potential which caused by space debris could significantly damage the affected areas. However, until now Indonesia has no comprehensive mitigation strategy for space matters although it has been ratified by the United Nations Convention.

  16. Nuclear energy development in the 21st century: Global scenarios and regional trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) was launched in 2000, on the basis of a resolution of the IAEA General Conference (GC(44)/RES/21). INPRO helps ensure that sustainable nuclear energy is available in the twenty-first century and seeks to bring together all interested Member States - both technology holders and technology users - to consider joint actions to achieve desired innovations. As of July 2010, 30 countries and the European Commission are members of INPRO. Programme Area B of INPRO, Global Vision - Scenarios and Pathways to Sustainable Nuclear Power Development, is aimed at providing a better understanding of the role of nuclear energy in the context of long term sustainable development. Its objective is to develop global and regional nuclear energy scenarios on the basis of a scientific-technical pathway analysis that lead to a global vision on sustainable nuclear energy development in the twenty-first century, and to support Member States in working towards that vision. This report presents the results of a study undertaken under Programme Area B in INPRO on Nuclear Energy Development in the Twenty-first Century: Global Scenarios and Regional Trends Studies on Nuclear Capacity Growth and Material Flow between Regions. The report does not develop a global vision for nuclear deployment per se, but presents a limited set of technical scenarios of nuclear deployment and considers their implications. It considers a global energy supply system composed of several reactor and fuel cycle types available today and of fast reactors that may be developed in the future to illustrate a possible modelling approach to identify the potential role of interregional transfer of nuclear fuel resources in supporting the global growth of nuclear energy. The study was performed with the participation of sixteen experts from nine INPRO Member States and included a dynamic simulation of material flows in nuclear energy systems using

  17. Mediterranean Sea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adloff, Fanny; Somot, Samuel; Sevault, Florence; Jordà, Gabriel; Aznar, Roland; Déqué, Michel; Herrmann, Marine; Marcos, Marta; Dubois, Clotilde; Padorno, Elena; Alvarez-Fanjul, Enrique; Gomis, Damià

    2015-11-01

    The Mediterranean climate is expected to become warmer and drier during the twenty-first century. Mediterranean Sea response to climate change could be modulated by the choice of the socio-economic scenario as well as the choice of the boundary conditions mainly the Atlantic hydrography, the river runoff and the atmospheric fluxes. To assess and quantify the sensitivity of the Mediterranean Sea to the twenty-first century climate change, a set of numerical experiments was carried out with the regional ocean model NEMOMED8 set up for the Mediterranean Sea. The model is forced by air-sea fluxes derived from the regional climate model ARPEGE-Climate at a 50-km horizontal resolution. Historical simulations representing the climate of the period 1961-2000 were run to obtain a reference state. From this baseline, various sensitivity experiments were performed for the period 2001-2099, following different socio-economic scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. For the A2 scenario, the main three boundary forcings (river runoff, near-Atlantic water hydrography and air-sea fluxes) were changed one by one to better identify the role of each forcing in the way the ocean responds to climate change. In two additional simulations (A1B, B1), the scenario is changed, allowing to quantify the socio-economic uncertainty. Our 6-member scenario simulations display a warming and saltening of the Mediterranean. For the 2070-2099 period compared to 1961-1990, the sea surface temperature anomalies range from +1.73 to +2.97 °C and the SSS anomalies spread from +0.48 to +0.89. In most of the cases, we found that the future Mediterranean thermohaline circulation (MTHC) tends to reach a situation similar to the eastern Mediterranean Transient. However, this response is varying depending on the chosen boundary conditions and socio-economic scenarios. Our numerical experiments suggest that the choice of the near-Atlantic surface water evolution, which is very uncertain in

  18. Clearing the cloudy crystal balls: Hybrid modelling for energy and climate change mitigation scenarios – A case study for Portugal

    OpenAIRE

    Silva, Patrícia Alexandra Fortes da

    2014-01-01

    Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Ambiente Energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios, generated by energy-economy-environment (E3) models, have been used to explore alternative futures and support energy and climate mitigation policy decisions. The uncertainty carried in these scenarios comes from inherent uncertainty of future conditions, reflected in the models input assumptions, and from the models intrinsic features (e.g. technology bottom-up vs. economic top-...

  19. Capital investment requirements for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation in power generation on near term to century time scales and global to regional spatial scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Our paper explores the implication of climate mitigation policy and electricity generation technology performance for capital investment demands by the electric power sector on near term to century time scales. We find that stabilizing GHG emissions will require additional investment in the electricity generation sector over and above investments that would be needed in the absence of climate policy, in the range of 15 to 29 trillion US$ (48–94%) depending on the stringency of climate policy during the period 2015 to 2095 under default technology assumptions. This increase reflects the higher capital intensity of power systems that control emissions as well as increased electrification of the global economy. Limits on the penetration of nuclear and carbon capture and storage technology could increase costs substantially. Energy efficiency improvements can reduce the investment requirement by 18 to 24 trillion US$ (compared to default technology climate policy assumptions), depending on climate policy scenario. We also highlight the implications of different technology evolution scenarios for different regions. Under default technology set, the heaviest investments across scenarios in power generation were observed in China, India, SE Asia and Africa regions with the latter three regions dominating in the second half of the 21st century. - Highlights: • We present electricity generation investment requirement under different scenarios. • A climate policy will lead to substantial increase in investment requirement. • Stringency of climate policy has significant implications for investments. • Technology evolution and performance alter investment requirements significantly. • China, India, Southeast Asia and Africa dominate as investment destinations

  20. Scenario analysis of China's emissions pathways in the 21st century for low carbon transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    China's growing demand for energy - and its dependence on coal - has seen its carbon emissions increase more than 50% since 2000. Within the debate about mitigating global climate change, there is mounting pressure for emerging economies like China to take more responsibility for reducing their carbon emissions within a post-2012 international climate change policy framework. For China, this leads to fundamental questions about how feasible it is for the country to shift away from its recent carbon intensive pattern of growth. This paper presents some general results of scenarios that have been developed to investigate how China might continue to develop within a cumulative carbon emissions budget. The results show how changes in the key sectors of the Chinese economy could enable China to follow four different low carbon development pathways, each of which complies with a cumulative emissions constraint. Each scenario reflects different priorities for governmental decision making, infrastructure investments and social preferences. Having compared the key features of each scenario, the paper concludes with some implications for Chinese government policy.

  1. Scenario analysis of China's emissions pathways in the 21st century for low carbon transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    China's growing demand for energy - and its dependence on coal - has seen its carbon emissions increase more than 50% since 2000. Within the debate about mitigating global climate change, there is mounting pressure for emerging economies like China to take more responsibility for reducing their carbon emissions within a post-2012 international climate change policy framework. For China, this leads to fundamental questions about how feasible it is for the country to shift away from its recent carbon intensive pattern of growth. This paper presents some general results of scenarios that have been developed to investigate how China might continue to develop within a cumulative carbon emissions budget. The results show how changes in the key sectors of the Chinese economy could enable China to follow four different low carbon development pathways, each of which complies with a cumulative emissions constraint. Each scenario reflects different priorities for governmental decision making, infrastructure investments and social preferences. Having compared the key features of each scenario, the paper concludes with some implications for Chinese government policy. (author)

  2. Divergent trajectories of Antarctic surface melt under two twenty-first-century climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trusel, Luke D.; Frey, Karen E.; Das, Sarah B.; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Kuipers Munneke, Peter; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Broeke, Michiel R.

    2015-12-01

    Ice shelves modulate Antarctic contributions to sea-level rise and thereby represent a critical, climate-sensitive interface between the Antarctic ice sheet and the global ocean. Following rapid atmospheric warming over the past decades, Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves have progressively retreated, at times catastrophically. This decay supports hypotheses of thermal limits of viability for ice shelves via surface melt forcing. Here we use a polar-adapted regional climate model and satellite observations to quantify the nonlinear relationship between surface melting and summer air temperature. Combining observations and multimodel simulations, we examine melt evolution and intensification before observed ice shelf collapse on the Antarctic Peninsula. We then assess the twenty-first-century evolution of surface melt across Antarctica under intermediate and high emissions climate scenarios. Our projections reveal a scenario-independent doubling of Antarctic-wide melt by 2050. Between 2050 and 2100, however, significant divergence in melt occurs between the two climate scenarios. Under the high emissions pathway by 2100, melt on several ice shelves approaches or surpasses intensities that have historically been associated with ice shelf collapse, at least on the northeast Antarctic Peninsula.

  3. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century – Part 2: Climate change mitigation policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. I. Hejazi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity both globally and regionally using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM, a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m−2 in year 2095 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively, under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT which excludes land use change emissions are analyzed. The results are compared to a baseline scenario (i.e. no climate change mitigation policy with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m−2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario by 2095. When compared to the baseline scenario and maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food and energy production, and in land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops. This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water availability in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change. Future research will be directed at incorporating water shortage feedbacks in GCAM to better understand how such stresses will propagate across the various human and natural systems in GCAM.

  4. Mitigation of hurricane storm surge impacts: Modeling scenarios over wide continental shelves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima Rego, Joao; Li, Chunyan

    2010-05-01

    The improvement of present understanding of surge dynamics over wide and shallow shelves is vital for the improvement of our ability to forecast storm surge impacts to coastal regions, particularly the low-lying land areas that are most vulnerable to hurricane flooding (e.g. the Northern Gulf of Mexico, coastal Bangladesh, the Southeast China sea). Given the increase of global sea-surface temperature, both the total number and proportion of intense tropical cyclones have increased notably since 1970 (Emanuel, 2005; Nature). Therefore, more intense hurricanes may hit densely populated coastal regions, and this problem may be aggravated by the prospect of accelerated sea-level rise in the 21st century. This presentation offers a review of recent work on hurricane-induced storm surge. The finite-volume coastal ocean model ("FVCOM", by Chen et al., 2003; J. Atmos. Ocean Tech.) was applied to the storm surge induced by Hurricanes Rita and Ike along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas in 2005 and 2008, respectively, to study coastal storm surge dynamics. The sensitivity analysis of Rego and Li (2009; Geophys. Res. Lett.) demonstrated how stronger, wider or faster tropical cyclones would affect coastal flooding. Li, Weeks and Rego (2009; Geophys. Res. Lett) looked into how hurricane flooding and receding dynamics differ, concluding that the overland flow in the latter stage is of considerable importance. Rego and Li (2010; J. Geophys. Res.) showed how extreme events may result of a combination of non-extreme factors, by studying the nonlinear interaction of tide and hurricane surge. The ability of models to reproduce these extreme events and to proactive plan for damage reduction is covered in Rego and Li's (2010; J. Marine Syst.) study of how barrier island systems protect coastal bays from offshore surge propagation. Here we combine these results for a wider perspective on how hurricane flooding could be mitigated under changing conditions.

  5. Thailand's Low-Carbon Scenario 2050: The AIM/CGE analyses of CO2 mitigation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change and CO2 mitigation have become increasingly important environmental issues. Recently Thailand has proposed policies on GHG mitigation such as Thailand’s Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA), which aims at GHG mitigation in the energy sector. This study used the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, called “AIM/CGE” model, to analyse GHG mitigation measures under emission trading and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology in Thailand. Results show that the international free emission trading policy can drive more GHG reduction by decreasing energy supply and demand, and increasing prices of emissions. The CCS technologies would balance emission reduction but they would reduce energy efficiency improvement and renewable energy utilization. In the energy security aspect, the policy options in this study would improve energy security, energy import dependency, and co-benefits of GHG mitigation in forms of improving local air quality. Results are also helpful to GHG mitigation policy in developing countries. -- Highlights: •A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was used to analyze GHG mitigation policies in Thailand. •The CCS and emission trading will increase GHG mitigation in Thailand. •The 30% GHG mitigation target with 50% emission trading will give the best result in GDP. •The share of biomass resource and energy efficiency will decrease with CCS. •The emission trading will play an important role in decreasing fossil consumption and increasing renewable energy utilization

  6. Scenarios of 21st-century trans-Arctic shipping for climate studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, S. R.; Davis, S. J.; Zender, C. S.; Smith, L. C.

    2013-12-01

    Receding Arctic sea ice coupled with increased resource demand in east Asia have recast the Arctic as an international trade space facilitating export of petroleum and minerals and offering potential alternative pathways for global maritime trade. Several studies have examined the future impact of increased vessel traffic in the Arctic on emissions of greenhouse gases and black carbon (BC); however, the net impact of these emissions on climate forcing in the region is not well understood. Here we present several scenarios of 21st-century trans-Arctic shipping for climate studies. Vessel transits between 5 east Asian ports (Tianjin, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Tokyo/Yokohama, Busan) and 2 European ports (Rotterdam, Hamburg) are estimated from 2010-2050 according to projected sea ice concentration and thickness, trends in cargo export volumes, and vessel ice class and cargo capacity. Sea ice data are represented by a 7-model ensemble mean from CMIP5 under two forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5/8.5). Emissions presented (CO2, CH4, N2O, NOx, SOx, BC) are obtained by convolving projected transits with trends in emissions factors. Results illustrate a range of emissions inventories for the Arctic owing to differences in vessel accessibility, trade volume, routes, and fuel mixtures.

  7. Dynamic EROI Assessment of the IPCC 21st Century Electricity Production Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Neumeyer

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Energy Return on Investment (EROI is an important measure of the energy gain of an electrical power generating facility that is typically evaluated based on the life cycle energy balance of a single facility. The EROI concept can be extended to cover a collection of facilities that comprise a complete power system and used to assess the expansion and evolution of a power system as it transitions from one portfolio mix of technologies to another over time. In this study we develop a dynamic EROI model that simulates the evolution of a power system and we perform an EROI simulation of one of the electricity production scenarios developed under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC covering the global supply of electricity in the 21st century. Our analytic tool provides the means for evaluation of dynamic EROI based on arbitrary time-dependent demand scenarios by modeling the required expansion of power generation, including the plowback needed for new construction and to replace facilities as they are retired. The results provide insight into the level of installed and delivered power, above and beyond basic consumer demand, that is required to support construction during expansion, as well as the supplementary power that may be required if plowback constraints are imposed. In addition, sensitivity to EROI parameters, and the impact of energy storage efficiency are addressed.

  8. Ecosystem vulnerability of China under B2 climate scenario in the 21st century

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU ShaoHong; DAI ErFu; HUANG Mei; SHAO XueMei; LI ShuangCheng; TAO Bo

    2007-01-01

    This paper applies climate change scenarios in China based on the SRES assumptions with the help of RCMs projections by PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies) system introduced to China from.he Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research at a high-resolution (50 kmx50 km)over China.This research focuses on B2 scenario of SRES.A biogeochemical model "Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model (AV1M2)" was applied to simulating ecosystem status in the 21st century.Then vulnerability of ecosystems was assessed based on a set of index of mainly net primary production (NPP) of vegetation.Results show that climate change would affect ecosystem of China severely and there would be a worse trend with the lapse of time.The regions where having vulnerable ecological background would have heavier impacts while some regions with better ecological background would also receive serious impacts.Extreme climate even would bring about worse impact on the ecosystems.Open shrub and desert steppe would be the two most affected types.When the extreme events happen,vulnerable ecosystem would extend to part of defoliate broad-leaved forest,woody grassland and evergreen conifer forest.Climate change would not always be negative.It could be of some benefit to cold region during the near-term.However,in view of mid-term to long-term negative impact on ecosystem vulnerability would be enormously.

  9. Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including a continuation of current dynamics and alternative paths developed on the basis of different assumptions relevant to sustainable energy development. It is important to note that scenarios are neither forecasts nor predictions, but are images of alternative futures based on internally consistent and reproducible sets of assumptions. Thus, scenario outputs and assumptions are inseparable parts of the overall integrated modelling process. This section presents alternative scenarios developed for Cuba for the period 2002-2025. One basic reference (REF) scenario is developed to explore future paths for both energy demand and supply. The optimization of the supply system is further analysed by the development of three alternative scenarios in addition to the REF scenario: a fossil fuels (FOS) scenario that emphasizes the use of fossil fuels; a renewables (REN) scenario that emphasizes intense use of renewables; and a mixed fuels (MIX) scenario that combines assumptions about the use of fossil fuels and renewables. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed in which alternative assumptions related to imported crude oil and petroleum products prices are taken into consideration. This section summarizes the methodology, assumptions and resulting characterizations of these alternative scenarios

  10. Scenario Analysis on Global Hydropower Development Paths and Their Contribution to GHG Mitigation Utilizing a Dynamic CGE Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Z.; Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.; Masaki, Y.; Hijioka, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Currently, hydropower accounts for 16% of the worldwide electricity power supply and 86% of the total renewable electricity energy source due to its low cost, low greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, and relatively high reliability. It is well known that the global hydropower has not yet been fully developed, but the future paths of development and corresponding contribution to GHG mitigation in each region combined with socioeconomic activities are less known. Here we investigated following three questions. How much will hydropower generation increase in the future? Will hydropower generation reach the economically exploitable capability (EEC)? If this will be the case, when and where will it occur? How much GHG emission will be reduced by adding new hydropower? In order to address these questions, we used the AIM/CGE model, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to quantify the global hydropower development paths and corresponding GHG mitigation contribution for 17 regions in the world associated with a socio-economic scenario termed SSP2. We compared two scenarios with different assumptions on EEC. One is BAU which takes EEC from the report of "World Energy Resources", the other is FIX_BAU which fix EEC at the current hydropower generation amount throughout the research period (2005-2100) or no additional installation of hydropower plants. The comparison between two scenarios indicated that promoting hydropower development contributed to GHG emission reduction globally but the magnitude varied by region. For example we found that in North Africa, hydropower development grew fast because of the rapid economic development, but it reached EEC as soon as in 2040 because of limitation in EEC due to its climatic and geographical conditions. Conversely, in Brazil, it grew steadily and did not reach its abundant EEC. Consequently, GHG mitigation contribution of North Africa is far less than Brazil. This research provides important information for policy makers to

  11. Building SSPs for climate policy analysis: a scenario elicitation methodology to map the space of possible future challenges to mitigation and adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Julie Rozenberg; Céline Guivarch; Robert Lempert; Stéphane Hallegatte

    2014-01-01

    The scientific community is now developing a new set of scenarios, referred to as Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) that will be contrasted along two axes: challenges to mitigation, and challenges to adaptation. This paper proposes a methodology to develop SSPs with a "backwards" approach based on (i) an a priori identification of potential drivers of mitigation and adaptation challenges; (ii) a modelling exercise to transform these drivers into a large set of scenarios; (iii) an a poster...

  12. Planning ahead for asteroid and comet hazard mitigation, phase 1: parameter space exploration and scenario modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plesko, Catherine S [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Clement, R Ryan [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Weaver, Robert P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bradley, Paul A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Huebner, Walter F [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    The mitigation of impact hazards resulting from Earth-approaching asteroids and comets has received much attention in the popular press. However, many questions remain about the near-term and long-term, feasibility and appropriate application of all proposed methods. Recent and ongoing ground- and space-based observations of small solar-system body composition and dynamics have revolutionized our understanding of these bodies (e.g., Ryan (2000), Fujiwara et al. (2006), and Jedicke et al. (2006)). Ongoing increases in computing power and algorithm sophistication make it possible to calculate the response of these inhomogeneous objects to proposed mitigation techniques. Here we present the first phase of a comprehensive hazard mitigation planning effort undertaken by Southwest Research Institute and Los Alamos National Laboratory. We begin by reviewing the parameter space of the object's physical and chemical composition and trajectory. We then use the radiation hydrocode RAGE (Gittings et al. 2008), Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) radiation transport (see Clement et al., this conference), and N-body dynamics codes to explore the effects these variations in object properties have on the coupling of energy into the object from a variety of mitigation techniques, including deflection and disruption by nuclear and conventional munitions, and a kinetic impactor.

  13. Regional scenarios of sea level rise and impacts on Basque (Bay of Biscay) coastal habitats, throughout the 21st century

    OpenAIRE

    Chust, Guillem; Caballero, Ainhoa; Marcos, Marta; Liria, Pedro; Hernández, Carlos A.; Borja, Ángel

    2010-01-01

    Global climate models have predicted a rise on mean sea level of between 0.18 m and 0.59 m by the end of the 21st Century, with high regional variability. The objectives of this study are to estimate sea level changes in the Bay of Biscay during this century, and to assess the impacts of any change on Basque coastal habitats and infrastructures. Hence, ocean temperature projections for three climate scenarios, provided by several atmosphere-ocean coupled general climate models, have been extr...

  14. Forecasting the effects of land use scenarios on farmland birds reveal a potential mitigation of climate change impacts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karine Princé

    Full Text Available Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform

  15. Norwegian Arctic climate. Climate influencing emissions, scenarios and mitigation options at Svalbard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vestreng, Vigdis; Kallenborn, Roland; Oekstad, Elin

    2010-07-01

    The goal of this study was to establish an emission inventory and emission scenarios for climate influencing compounds at Svalbard, as a basis to develop strategies for emission reduction measures and policies. Emissions for the years 2000-2007 have been estimated for the Svalbard Zone. This area, covering about 173 000 km{sub 2}, ranges from 10 E to 35 E longitude and 74 N to 81 N latitude (Figure 1). In addition, air and ship transport between Tromsoe at the Norwegian mainland and Svalbard has been included. Pollutants considered in our inventory are carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), methane (CH{sub 4}), Sulphur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), Nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x} as NO{sub 2}), and for the first time also estimates of black carbon (BC, soot) and organic carbon (OC) have been included. Our results show that emissions of all pollutants have increased over the time span 2000-2007 (Figure 2), and are expected to increase also in the future if additional measures are not implemented (Figure 12). The emissions from Svalbard are minuscule compared to emission released from the Norwegian mainland and waters (1% in the case of CO{sub 2}). Even so, local releases of climate influencing compounds in the vulnerable Arctic may turn out to make a difference both with respect to adverse environmental effects and to climate change. Emissions have been estimated for all activities of any significance taking place at and around Svalbard. Combustion sources as well as fugitive emissions of methane are included. The main sectors are coal mining, energy production and transportation. Pollution from 28 sub sectors related to these activities has been estimated. The scope of this work differs from that covered by national inventories since emission estimates are based on the fuel consumed and include emissions from international shipping and aviation. Fuel consumption data were collected from local authorities, institutions and industry. Emission factors have been selected from relevant

  16. Narrative scenario development based on cross-impact analysis for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Social, technological, economic and environmental issues should be considered comprehensively for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options. Existing integrated assessment models include assessment of quantitative factors; however, these models do not explicitly consider interactions among qualitative factors in the background - for example, introductions of nuclear power stations interact with social acceptability. In this paper, we applied a technological forecasting method - the cross-impact method - which explicitly deals with the relationships among relevant factors, and we then developed narrative scenarios having consistency with qualitative social contexts. An example of developed scenarios in 2050, assuming the global population and the gross domestic product are the same as those of the A1 scenario of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, tells us that: (1) the Internet will be extensively used in all regions; (2) the global unified market will appear; (3) regional cultures will tend to converge; (4) long-term investments (of more than 30 years) will become difficult and therefore nuclear-power stations will not increase so remarkably; (5) the self-sufficient supply and diversification of primary energy sources will not progress so rapidly; and (6) due to the widespread use of the Internet, people will be more educated in global environmental issues and environmental costs will be more socially acceptable

  17. Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joao M. Goncalves

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Personal information is increasingly gathered and used for providing services tailored to user preferences, but the datasets used to provide such functionality can represent serious privacy threats if not appropriately protected. Work in privacy-preserving data publishing targeted privacy guarantees that protect against record re-identification, by making records indistinguishable, or sensitive attribute value disclosure, by introducing diversity or noise in the sensitive values. However, most approaches fail in the high-dimensional case, and the ones that don't introduce a utility cost incompatible with tailored recommendation scenarios. This paper aims at a sensible trade-off between privacy and the benefits of tailored recommendations, in the context of privacy-preserving data publishing. We empirically demonstrate that significant privacy improvements can be achieved at a utility cost compatible with tailored recommendation scenarios, using a simple partition-based sanitization method.

  18. The implications of carbon dioxide and methane exchange for the heavy mitigation RCP2.6 scenario under two metrics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Exchanging methane for carbon dioxide emissions affects peak global warming. • Economic constraints severely affects exchange possibilities. • Chosen metric determines if economic to eliminate all removable methane emissions. • If all methane emissions could be removed, this could aid meeting two-degrees warming target. - Abstract: Greenhouse gas emissions associated with Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 could limit global warming to around or below a 2 °C increase since pre-industrial times. However this scenario implies very large and rapid reductions in both carbon dioxide (CO2) and non-CO2 emissions, and suggests a need to understand available flexibility between how different greenhouse gases might be abated. There is a growing interest in developing a greater understanding of the particular role of shorter lived non-CO2 gases as abatement options. We address this here through a sensitivity study of different methane (CH4) emissions pathways to year 2100 and beyond, by including exchanges with CO2 emissions, and with a focus on related climate and economic advantages and disadvantages. Metrics exist that characterise gas equivalence in terms of climate change effect per tonne emitted. We analyse the implications of CO2 and CH4 emission exchanges under two commonly considered metrics: the 100-yr Global Warming Potential (GWP-100) and Global Temperature Potential (GTP-100). This is whilst keeping CO2-equivalent emissions pathways fixed, based on the standard set of emissions usually associated with RCP2.6. An idealised situation of anthropogenic CH4 emissions being reduced to zero across a period of two decades and with the implementation of such cuts starting almost immediately gives lower warming than for standard RCP2.6 emissions during the 21st and 22nd Century. This is despite exchanging for higher CO2 emissions. Introducing Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curves provides an economic assessment of alternative gas reduction

  19. Strategies for operator response in mitigating loss of containment heat removal accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In anticipation of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission generic letter regarding accident management, the Boiling Water Reactor Owners' Group (BWROG) has commissioned the development of Accident Management Guidelines (AMGs). One outgrowth of the industry performance of individual plant examinations (IPES) is the development of more effective accident management guidance to prevent or mitigate the effects of severe accidents. The BWROG is determining a process for integrating these insights into a coherent format that can be implemented by BWR owners as part of accident management

  20. Enduse Global Emissions Mitigation Scenarios (EGEMS): A New Generation of Energy Efficiency Policy Planning Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McNeil, Michael A.; de la Rue du Can, Stephane; McMahon, James E.

    2009-05-29

    This paper presents efforts to date and prospective goals towards development of a modelling and analysis framework which is comprehensive enough to address the global climate crisis, and detailed enough to provide policymakers with concrete targets and achievable outcomes. In terms of energy efficiency policy, this requires coverage of the entire world, with emphasis on countries and regions with large and/or rapidly growing energy-related emissions, and analysis at the 'technology' level-building end use, transport mode or industrial process. These elements have not been fully addressed by existing modelling efforts, which usually take either a top-down approach, or concentrate on a few fully industrialized countries where energy demand is well-understood. Inclusion of details such as appliance ownership rates, use patterns and efficiency levels throughout the world allows for a deeper understanding of the demand for energy today and, more importantly, over the coming decades. This is a necessary next step for energy analysts and policy makers in assessment of mitigation potentials. The modelling system developed at LBNL over the past 3 years takes advantage of experience in end use demand and in forecasting markets for energy-consuming equipment, in combination with known technology-based efficiency opportunities and policy types. A particular emphasis has been placed on modelling energy growth in developing countries. Experiences to date include analyses covering individual countries (China and India), end uses (refrigerators and air conditioners) and policy types (standards and labelling). Each of these studies required a particular effort in data collection and model refinement--they share, however, a consistent approach and framework which allows comparison, and forms the foundation of a comprehensive analysis system leading to a roadmap to address the greenhouse gas mitigation targetslikely to be set in the coming years.

  1. FINADAPT scenarios for the 21st century. Alternative futures for considering adaptation to climate change in Finland. FINADAPT Working Paper 2

    OpenAIRE

    Carter, Timothy R.; JylhÀ, Kirsti; Perrels, Adriaan; Fronzek,Stefan; KankaanpÀÀ, Susanna

    2005-01-01

    A set of three scenarios of environmental and socio-economic conditions in Finland during the 21st century is presented. The scenarios were developed to provide a contextual framework for research into adaptation to climate change in the FINADAPT project. They have similarities to the IPCC SRES global scenarios, but they also differ from SRES because they are national in scope and they account for climate policy. The scenarios are labelled: Global Markets, assuming low greenhouse gas levels, ...

  2. Shifting Baselines in a California Oak Savanna: Nineteenth Century Data to Inform Restoration Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Whipple, AA; Grossinger, RM; Davis, FW

    2011-01-01

    For centuries humans have reduced and transformed Mediterranean-climate oak woodland and savanna ecosystems, making it difficult to establish credible baselines for ecosystem structure and composition that can guide ecological restoration efforts. We combined historical data sources, with particular attention to mid-1800s General Land Office witness tree records and maps and twentieth century air photos, to reconstruct 150 years of decline in extent and stand density of Valley oak (Quercus lo...

  3. Building SSPs for climate policy analysis: a scenario elicitation methodology to map the space of possible future challenges to mitigation and adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Rozenberg, Julie; Guivarch, Céline; Lempert, Robert; Hallegatte, Stéphane

    2014-01-01

    International audience The scientific community is now developing a new set of scenarios, referred to as Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) that will be contrasted along two axes: challenges to mitigation, and challenges to adaptation. This paper proposes a methodology to develop SSPs with a "backwards" approach based on (i) an a priori identification of potential drivers of mitigation and adaptation challenges; (ii) a modelling exercise to transform these drivers into a large set of sc...

  4. Climate Change Projections for the 21st Century by the NCC/IAP T63 Model with SRES Scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Ying; ZHAO Zongci; LUO Yong; GAO Xuejie

    2005-01-01

    The projections of climate change in the globe and East Asia by the NCC/IAP T63 model with the SRES A2 and A1B scenarios have been investigated in this paper. The results pointed out a global warming of 3.6℃/100 yr and 2.5℃/100 yr for A2 and A1B during the 21st century, respectively. The warming in high and middle latitudes will be more obvious than that in low latitudes, especially in the winter hemisphere.The warming of 5.1℃/100 yr for A2 and 3.6℃/100 yr for A1B over East Asia in the 21st century will be much higher than that in the globe. The global mean precipitation will increase by about 4.3%/100 yr for A2 and 3.4%/100 yr for A1B in the 21st century, respectively. The precipitation will increase in most parts of the low and high latitudes and decrease in some regions of the subtropical latitudes. The linear trends of the annual mean precipitation anomalies over East Asia will be 9.8%/100 yr for A2 and 5.2%/100 yr for A1B, respectively. The drier situations will occur over the northwestern and southeastern parts of East Asia.The changes of the annual mean temperature and precipitation in the globe for the 21st century by the NCC/IAP T63 model with SRES A2 and A1B scenarios are in agreement with a number of the model projections.

  5. Scenarios of biodiversity loss in southern Africa in the 21st century

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biggs, R.H.; Simons, H.; Bakkenes, M.; Scholes, R.J.; Eickhout, B.; Vuuren, van D.; Alkemade, R.

    2008-01-01

    The rich biodiversity of southern Africa has to date been relatively unimpacted by the activities of modern society, but to what degree will this situation persist into the 21st century? We use a leading global environmental assessment model (IMAGE) to explore future land use and climate change in s

  6. Climate change impacts on the power generation potential of a European mid-century wind farms scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wind energy resource is subject to changes in climate. To investigate the impacts of climate change on future European wind power generation potential, we analyze a multi-model ensemble of the most recent EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations at the 12 km grid resolution. We developed a mid-century wind power plant scenario to focus the impact assessment on relevant locations for future wind power industry. We found that, under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, changes in the annual energy yield of the future European wind farms fleet as a whole will remain within ±5% across the 21st century. At country to local scales, wind farm yields will undergo changes up to 15% in magnitude, according to the large majority of models, but smaller than 5% in magnitude for most regions and models. The southern fleets such as the Iberian and Italian fleets are likely to be the most affected. With regard to variability, changes are essentially small or poorly significant from subdaily to interannual time scales. (letter)

  7. Climate change impacts on the power generation potential of a European mid-century wind farms scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobin, Isabelle; Jerez, Sonia; Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; van Meijgaard, Erik; Prein, Andreas; Déqué, Michel; Kotlarski, Sven; Fox Maule, Cathrine; Nikulin, Grigory; Noël, Thomas; Teichmann, Claas

    2016-03-01

    Wind energy resource is subject to changes in climate. To investigate the impacts of climate change on future European wind power generation potential, we analyze a multi-model ensemble of the most recent EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations at the 12 km grid resolution. We developed a mid-century wind power plant scenario to focus the impact assessment on relevant locations for future wind power industry. We found that, under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, changes in the annual energy yield of the future European wind farms fleet as a whole will remain within ±5% across the 21st century. At country to local scales, wind farm yields will undergo changes up to 15% in magnitude, according to the large majority of models, but smaller than 5% in magnitude for most regions and models. The southern fleets such as the Iberian and Italian fleets are likely to be the most affected. With regard to variability, changes are essentially small or poorly significant from subdaily to interannual time scales.

  8. Norwegian Arctic climate. Climate influencing emissions, scenarios and mitigation options at Svalbard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vestreng, Vigdis; Kallenborn, Roland; Oekstad, Elin

    2010-07-01

    The goal of this study was to establish an emission inventory and emission scenarios for climate influencing compounds at Svalbard, as a basis to develop strategies for emission reduction measures and policies. Emissions for the years 2000-2007 have been estimated for the Svalbard Zone. This area, covering about 173 000 km{sub 2}, ranges from 10 E to 35 E longitude and 74 N to 81 N latitude (Figure 1). In addition, air and ship transport between Tromsoe at the Norwegian mainland and Svalbard has been included. Pollutants considered in our inventory are carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), methane (CH{sub 4}), Sulphur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), Nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x} as NO{sub 2}), and for the first time also estimates of black carbon (BC, soot) and organic carbon (OC) have been included. Our results show that emissions of all pollutants have increased over the time span 2000-2007 (Figure 2), and are expected to increase also in the future if additional measures are not implemented (Figure 12). The emissions from Svalbard are minuscule compared to emission released from the Norwegian mainland and waters (1% in the case of CO{sub 2}). Even so, local releases of climate influencing compounds in the vulnerable Arctic may turn out to make a difference both with respect to adverse environmental effects and to climate change. Emissions have been estimated for all activities of any significance taking place at and around Svalbard. Combustion sources as well as fugitive emissions of methane are included. The main sectors are coal mining, energy production and transportation. Pollution from 28 sub sectors related to these activities has been estimated. The scope of this work differs from that covered by national inventories since emission estimates are based on the fuel consumed and include emissions from international shipping and aviation. Fuel consumption data were collected from local authorities, institutions and industry. Emission factors have been selected from relevant

  9. Identifying and Mitigating Potential Nutrient and Sediment Hot Spots under a Future Scenario in the Missouri River Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, May [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Zhang, Zhonglong [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for large-scale watershed modeling could be useful for evaluating the quality of the water in regions that are dominated by nonpoint sources in order to identify potential “hot spots” for which mitigating strategies could be further developed. An analysis of water quality under future scenarios in which changes in land use would be made to accommodate increased biofuel production was developed for the Missouri River Basin (MoRB) based on a SWAT model application. The analysis covered major agricultural crops and biofuel feedstock in the MoRB, including pasture land, hay, corn, soybeans, wheat, and switchgrass. The analysis examined, at multiple temporal and spatial scales, how nitrate, organic nitrogen, and total nitrogen; phosphorus, organic phosphorus, inorganic phosphorus, and total phosphorus; suspended sediments; and water flow (water yield) would respond to the shifts in land use that would occur under proposed future scenarios. The analysis was conducted at three geospatial scales: (1) large tributary basin scale (two: Upper MoRB and Lower MoRB); (2) regional watershed scale (seven: Upper Missouri River, Middle Missouri River, Middle Lower Missouri River, Lower Missouri River, Yellowstone River, Platte River, and Kansas River); and (3) eight-digit hydrologic unit (HUC-8) subbasin scale (307 subbasins). Results showed that subbasin-level variations were substantial. Nitrogen loadings decreased across the entire Upper MoRB, and they increased in several subbasins in the Lower MoRB. Most nitrate reductions occurred in lateral flow. Also at the subbasin level, phosphorus in organic, sediment, and soluble forms was reduced by 35%, 45%, and 65%, respectively. Suspended sediments increased in 68% of the subbasins. The water yield decreased in 62% of the subbasins. In the Kansas River watershed, the water quality improved significantly with regard to every nitrogen and phosphorus compound. The improvement was

  10. The Hydrogen Economy in the 21st Century: A Sustainable Development Scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Barreto, L.; Makihira, A.; K. Riahi

    2003-01-01

    A long-term hydrogen-based scenario of the global energy system is described in qualitative and quantitative terms here, illustrating the key role of hydrogen in a long-term transition toward a clean and sustainable energy future. In an affluent, low-population-growth, equity and sustainability-oriented B1-H2 world, hydrogen technologies experience substantial but plausible performance and cost improvements and are able to diffuse extensively. Corresponding production and distribution infrast...

  11. Long-term Perspectives for Carbon Capture in Power Plants: Scenarios for the 21st Century

    OpenAIRE

    Riahi, K.; Barreto, L.; Rao, S.

    2004-01-01

    The report analyzes the role of fossil-fired power plants equipped with carbon capture systems in long-term scenarios of the global energy system representing technological change as an endogenous process. Within this framework the impacts of a technology policy is illustrated that requires over time an increasing fraction of fossil-fired power generation to incorporate carbon capture technologies. In particular, we examine the potential costs and the contribution that such a policy could off...

  12. Into tomorrow : Constructing scenarios for the record industry in the 21-century

    OpenAIRE

    Ageberg, Erik Gustaf

    2009-01-01

    Purpose/Aim: The aim of this paper is to, through scenario planning methodology, present recommendations in order for record companies to be competitive in the near future. In order to achieve this goal three question where asked. (1) What are the most central problems of the record industry? (2) How can these problems affect the future in the industry? (3) In what way can record companies’ work to avoid these problems? The paper focuses on the Swedish market partly because of the given timef...

  13. Towards regional projections of twenty-first century sea-level change based on IPCC SRES scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Slangen, A.B.A.; Wal, R.S.W. van de [Utrecht University, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht (Netherlands); Katsman, C.A. [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), P.O. Box 201, De Bilt (Netherlands); Vermeersen, L.L.A. [TU Delft, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Delft (Netherlands); Riva, R.E.M. [TU Delft, Delft (Netherlands)

    2012-03-15

    Sea-level change is often considered to be globally uniform in sea-level projections. However, local relative sea-level (RSL) change can deviate substantially from the global mean. Here, we present maps of twenty-first century local RSL change estimates based on an ensemble of coupled climate model simulations for three emission scenarios. In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), the same model simulations were used for their projections of global mean sea-level rise. The contribution of the small glaciers and ice caps to local RSL change is calculated with a glacier model, based on a volume-area approach. The contributions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are obtained from IPCC AR4 estimates. The RSL distribution resulting from the land ice mass changes is then calculated by solving the sea-level equation for a rotating, elastic Earth model. Next, we add the pattern of steric RSL changes obtained from the coupled climate models and a model estimate for the effect of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment. The resulting ensemble mean RSL pattern reveals that many regions will experience RSL changes that differ substantially from the global mean. For the A1B ensemble, local RSL change values range from -3.91 to 0.79 m, with a global mean of 0.47 m. Although the RSL amplitude differs, the spatial patterns are similar for all three emission scenarios. The spread in the projections is dominated by the distribution of the steric contribution, at least for the processes included in this study. Extreme ice loss scenarios may alter this picture. For individual sites, we find a standard deviation for the combined contributions of approximately 10 cm, regardless of emission scenario. (orig.)

  14. Mitigation scenario analysis: modelling the impacts of changes in agricultural management practices on surface water quality at the catchment scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Sam; He, Yi; Hiscock, Kevin

    2014-05-01

    ) within the program SWAT-CUP (SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Programs). Model performance is assessed against a variety of statistical measures including the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) and percentage bias (PBIAS). Various mitigation scenarios are modelled within the catchment, including changes in fertiliser application rates and timing and the introduction of different tillage techniques and cover-crop regimes. The effects of the applied measures on water quality are examined and recommendations made on which measures have the greatest potential to be applied within the catchment to improve water quality. This study reports the findings of that analysis and presents techniques by which diffuse agricultural pollution can be reduced within catchments through the implementation of multiple on-farm measures. The methodology presented has the potential to be applied within other catchments, allowing tailored mitigation strategies to be developed. Ultimately, this research provides 'tested' mitigation options that can be applied within the Wensum and similar catchments to improve water quality and to ensure that certain obligatory water quality standards are achieved.

  15. Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high concentration pathway 21st century scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Pascale, Salvatore; Feng, Xue; Porporato, Amilcare; Hasson, Shabeh ul

    2014-01-01

    In this diagnostic study we analyze changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells by the end of the twenty-first century under the most extreme IPCC5 emission scenario (RCP8.5) as projected by twenty-four coupled climate models participating to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. We use estimates of the centroid of the monthly rainfall distribution as an index of the rainfall timing and a threshold-independent, information theory-based quantity such as relative entropy (RE) to quantify the concentration of annual rainfall and the number of dry months and to build a monsoon dimensionless seasonality index (DSI). The RE is projected to increase, with high inter-model agreement over Mediterranean-type regions (southern Europe, northern Africa and southern Australia) and areas of South and Central America, implying an increase in the number of dry days up to one month by the end of the twenty-first century. Positive RE changes are also projected over the monsoon regions of southern Africa and North America,...

  16. China’s Low-Carbon Scenario Analysis of CO2 Mitigation Measures towards 2050 Using a Hybrid AIM/CGE Model

    OpenAIRE

    Wei Li; Hao Li; Shuang Sun

    2015-01-01

    China’s emissions continue to rise rapidly in line with its mounting energy consumption, which puts considerable pressure on China to meet its emission reduction commitments. This paper assesses the impacts of CO2 mitigation measures in China during the period from 2010 to 2050 by using a computable general equilibrium method, called AIM/CGE. Results show that renewable energy makes a critical difference in abating emissions during the period from 2010 to 2020. The scenarios with emission tra...

  17. China’s Low-Carbon Scenario Analysis of CO 2 Mitigation Measures towards 2050 Using a Hybrid AIM/CGE Model

    OpenAIRE

    Wei Li; Hao Li; Shuang Sun

    2015-01-01

    China’s emissions continue to rise rapidly in line with its mounting energy consumption, which puts considerable pressure on China to meet its emission reduction commitments. This paper assesses the impacts of CO 2 mitigation measures in China during the period from 2010 to 2050 by using a computable general equilibrium method, called AIM/CGE. Results show that renewable energy makes a critical difference in abating emissions during the period from 2010 to 2020. The scenarios with emission ...

  18. An assessment of the potentials of nuclear power and carbon capture and storage in the long-term global warming mitigation options based on Asian Modeling Exercise scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents an evaluation of global warming mitigation options based on scenarios from the Asian Modeling Exercise. Using an extended version of the integrated assessment model MARIA-23 (Multiregional Approach for Resource and Industry Allocation), we analyze nuclear fuel recycling options, carbon capture and storage technologies (CCS), and biomass utilization. To assess the potential implications of decreased social acceptance of nuclear power in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident, additional scenarios including a nuclear power expansion limitation, are analyzed. We also evaluate MARIA-23 model simulation estimates of long-term contributions and interrelationships among nuclear power, biomass, and CCS. Finally, potential costs of nuclear limitation under carbon control policies are assessed. The simulation results in this paper suggest the following: (1) under the reference scenario, global GDP losses in climate limitation scenarios range from 1.3% per year to 3.9% per year in 2060, rising to between 3.5% per year and 4.5% per year in 2100; (2) the use of nuclear fuel reprocessing technologies increase rapidly in all carbon control policy scenarios; (3) under a scenario where the price of CO2 is $30 and nuclear power expansion is strictly limited, GDP losses increase significantly—from 4.5% per year to 6.4% per year by 2100; (4) nuclear power and CCS are substitute mitigation technologies. With nuclear power technology available CCS deployment reaches approximately 15,000 Mt-CO2 per year by 2010; without a nuclear power option, CCS deployment rises to more than 80,000 Mt-CO2 per year; and (5) biomass utilization cannot fully compensate for limitations to nuclear power expansion in policy scenarios. In addition to examining the role of these three technologies on global scales, we report results for several major Asian regions, namely Japan, China, and India. China tends to deploy nuclear power (if available) in response to rapidly growing power

  19. Changing Water and Nitrogen Use Efficiency over Agricultural Lands of the Inland Pacific Northwest During the 21th Century: Implications for Adaptation and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, M.; Malek, K.; Adam, J. C.; Stockle, C. O.; Rajagopalan, K.; Nelson, R.

    2014-12-01

    As water is the primary resource limitation for cropping systems over the inland Pacific Northwest (PNW), water use efficiency impacts regional water availability, crop yields, and net carbon sequestration. Furthermore, nitrogen (N) use efficiency affects the cost of farming and the total N flux to the environment (including leaching to aquatic ecosystems and greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere). Climate change affects water and nitrogen use efficiencies due to the combined effects of warming (reducing snowpack water storage, increasing ET, earlier leaf-on, shortening or lengthening plant growth season, etc.), the CO2 fertilization effects (increasing net primary productivity and leaf-level water and energy use efficiencies for C3 crops), and extreme climate events (drought and flood). Cropland conservation management (rotation, tillage, irrigation, and fertilization) is widely practiced in this region for maintaining high productivity of agricultural lands. To reduce vulnerability to weather extremes and long-term climate change, management regimes will likely need to be adapted for a changing environment. Here, we applied the coupled macro-scale hydrologic and crop growth model (VIC-CropSyst) to study how climate change in the 21st century will change water and nitrogen use efficiencies over the PNW. Simulation experiments with different combinations of management options and climate scenarios are used for attributing effects of climate factors and management options on long-term trends and fluctuations on water and nitrogen use efficiency. Preliminary simulation results indicate that there is a trend of decreasing water and nitrogen use efficiency over the inner PNW domain during the 21th century because of increasing ET, a seasonal shift in water availability, and the intensification of extreme climate events. Effective managements, including no-tillage and conservational tillage and optimized irrigation can eliminate the decrease or even increase water

  20. Rainfall and temperature scenarios for Bangladesh for the middle of 21st century using RegCM

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Md Mizanur Rahman; Md Nazrul Islam; Ahsan Uddin Ahmed; F Georgi

    2012-04-01

    Regional Climate Model of version 3 (RegCM3) was driven with Emissions Scenarios A2 of ECHAM4 at 0.54° × 0.54° horizontal grid resolution in two parameterizations: Grell scheme with Arakawa–Schubert (GAS) and Fritch–Chappell (GFC) assumptions. The simulated rainfall and mean surface air temperature were calibrated and validated against ground-based observed data in Bangladesh during the period 1961–1990. The Climate Research Unit (CRU) data is also used for understanding the model performance. Better performance of RegCM3 obtained through validation process, made it confident in utilizing it in rainfall and temperature projection for Bangladesh in the middle of 21st century. Rainfall and mean surface air temperature projection for Bangladesh is experimentally obtained for 2050 and 2060. This work discloses that simulated rainfall and temperature are not directly useful in application-oriented tasks. However, after calibration and validation, reasonable performance can be obtained in estimating seasonal and annual rainfall, and mean surface air temperature in Bangladesh. The projected change of rainfall for Bangladesh is about +35% for monsoon season (JJAS), −67% for pre-monsoon (MAM), −12% for post-monsoon (ON) and 107% for winter (DJF) for 2050. On an average, rainfall may be less by more than 50% for all seasons for the year 2060. Similarly, change of mean surface air temperature in different months is projected about 0.5°–2.1°C and 0.9°–3.5°C for the year 2050 and 2060, respectively.

  1. Rainfall and temperature scenarios for Bangladesh for the middle of 21st century using RegCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Md Mizanur; Islam, Md Nazrul; Ahmed, Ahsan Uddin; Georgi, F.

    2012-04-01

    Regional Climate Model of version 3 (RegCM3) was driven with Emissions Scenarios A2 of ECHAM4 at 0.54°×0.54° horizontal grid resolution in two parameterizations: Grell scheme with Arakawa-Schubert (GAS) and Fritch-Chappell (GFC) assumptions. The simulated rainfall and mean surface air temperature were calibrated and validated against ground-based observed data in Bangladesh during the period 1961-1990. The Climate Research Unit (CRU) data is also used for understanding the model performance. Better performance of RegCM3 obtained through validation process, made it confident in utilizing it in rainfall and temperature projection for Bangladesh in the middle of 21st century. Rainfall and mean surface air temperature projection for Bangladesh is experimentally obtained for 2050 and 2060. This work discloses that simulated rainfall and temperature are not directly useful in application-oriented tasks. However, after calibration and validation, reasonable performance can be obtained in estimating seasonal and annual rainfall, and mean surface air temperature in Bangladesh. The projected change of rainfall for Bangladesh is about +35% for monsoon season (JJAS), -67% for pre-monsoon (MAM), -12% for post-monsoon (ON) and 107% for winter (DJF) for 2050. On an average, rainfall may be less by more than 50% for all seasons for the year 2060. Similarly, change of mean surface air temperature in different months is projected about 0.5°-2.1°C and 0.9°-3.5°C for the year 2050 and 2060, respectively.

  2. Steric Sea Level Change in Twentieth Century Historical Climate Simulation and IPCC-RCP8.5 Scenario Projection: A Comparison of Two Versions of FGOALS Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DONG Lu; ZHOU Tianjun

    2013-01-01

    To reveal the steric sea level change in 20th century historical climate simulations and future climate change projections under the IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario,the results of two versions of LASG/IAP's Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model (FGOALS) are analyzed.Both models reasonably reproduce the mean dynamic sea level features,with a spatial pattern correlation coefficient of 0.97 with the observation.Characteristics of steric sea level changes in the 20th century historical climate simulations and RCP8.5 scenario projections are investigated.The results show that,in the 20th century,negative trends covered most parts of the global ocean.Under the RCP8.5 scenario,global-averaged steric sea level exhibits a pronounced rising trend throughout the 21st century and the general rising trend appears in most parts of the global ocean.The magnitude of the changes in the 21st century is much larger than that in the 20th century.By the year 2100,the global-averaged steric sea level anomaly is 18 cm and 10 cm relative to the year 1850 in the second spectral version of FGOALS (FGOALS-s2) and the second grid-point version of FGOALS (FGOALS-g2),respectively.The separate contribution of the thermosteric and halosteric components from various ocean layers is further evaluated.In the 20th century,the steric sea level changes in FGOALS-s2 (FGOALS-g2) are largely attributed to the thermosteric (halosteric) component relative to the pre-industrial control run.In contrast,in the 21st century,the thermosteric component,mainly from the upper 1000 m,dominates the steric sea level change in both models under the RCP8.5 scenario.In addition,the steric sea level change in the marginal sea of China is attributed to the thermosteric component.

  3. Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options in ISEEM Global Energy Model: 2010-2050 Scenario Analysis for Least-Cost Carbon Reduction in Iron and Steel Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karali, Nihan; Xu, Tengfang; Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-12-01

    The goal of the modeling work carried out in this project was to quantify long-term scenarios for the future emission reduction potentials in the iron and steel sector. The main focus of the project is to examine the impacts of carbon reduction options in the U.S. iron and steel sector under a set of selected scenarios. In order to advance the understanding of carbon emission reduction potential on the national and global scales, and to evaluate the regional impacts of potential U.S. mitigation strategies (e.g., commodity and carbon trading), we also included and examined the carbon reduction scenarios in China’s and India’s iron and steel sectors in this project. For this purpose, a new bottom-up energy modeling framework, the Industrial Sector Energy Efficiency Modeling (ISEEM), (Karali et al. 2012) was used to provide detailed annual projections starting from 2010 through 2050. We used the ISEEM modeling framework to carry out detailed analysis, on a country-by-country basis, for the U.S., China’s, and India’s iron and steel sectors. The ISEEM model applicable to iron and steel section, called ISEEM-IS, is developed to estimate and evaluate carbon emissions scenarios under several alternative mitigation options - including policies (e.g., carbon caps), commodity trading, and carbon trading. The projections will help us to better understand emission reduction potentials with technological and economic implications. The database for input of ISEEM-IS model consists of data and information compiled from various resources such as World Steel Association (WSA), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), China Steel Year Books, India Bureau of Mines (IBM), Energy Information Administration (EIA), and recent LBNL studies on bottom-up techno-economic analysis of energy efficiency measures in the iron and steel sector of the U.S., China, and India, including long-term steel production in China. In the ISEEM-IS model, production technology and manufacturing details are

  4. Role of technologies in energy-related CO2 mitigation in China within a climate-protection world: A scenarios analysis using REMIND

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • The augmented REMIND model is used to study the role of energy technologies under a carbon tax. • The scale and timing of fossil fuels with CCS, nuclear, and renewables are examined. • CCS is important but the window of opportunity for its deployment is limited. • The effectiveness of nuclear is strongly linked to its cost performance. • Renewable energy is a long-term mitigation option. - Abstract: In a world with the need of climate protection through emission reduction, China’s domestic mitigation will be put on the national agenda. The large-scale deployment of innovative technologies induced by climate policies is a key determinant for reducing emissions in an effective and efficient manner. A distinguishing feature of the Chinese energy sector (especially electricity generation), is that investment costs are significantly lower than in other world regions. Represented in the methodological framework of the augmented REMIND model, three promising mitigation technologies (also known as technology clusters) in the electricity sector: CCS with advanced coal-generation technologies, nuclear, and renewables are the focus of this study. The scenarios are designed to analyze the roles of these technologies and their associated economic impacts under a climate policy (i.e., a carbon tax). Our results indicate that: (1)Technology policies improving the techno-economic features of low-carbon technologies are insufficient to restrain China’s increasing emissions. (2)Carbon-pricing policies can effectively reduce emissions by making low-carbon options more competitive than conventional fossil fuel alternatives. In the global carbon tax regime framed in this paper, China’s mitigation potential is larger than that of any of other region and the peak of emissions occurs earlier (by 2020) and is 50% lower than in the BASE scenario. (3)CCS is important, but the window of opportunity for its deployment is limited to the near- to mid-term future. It

  5. Scenarios for future biodiversity loss due to multiple drivers reveal conflict between mitigating climate change and preserving biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Thomas W. R.; Lenton, Timothy M.

    2013-06-01

    We assess the potential for future biodiversity loss due to three interacting factors: energy withdrawal from ecosystems due to biomass harvest, habitat loss due to land-use change, and climate change. We develop four scenarios to 2050 with different combinations of high or low agricultural efficiency and high or low meat diets, and use species-energy and species-area relationships to estimate their effects on biodiversity. In our scenarios, natural ecosystems are protected except when additional land is necessary to fulfil the increasing dietary demands of the global population. Biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is used as a means of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere (and offsetting fossil fuel emissions). BECCS is based on waste biomass, with the addition of bio-energy crops only when already managed land is no longer needed for food production. Forecast biodiversity loss from natural biomes increases by more than a factor of five in going from high to low agricultural efficiency scenarios, due to destruction of productive habitats by the expansion of pasture. Biodiversity loss from energy withdrawal on managed land varies by a factor of two across the scenarios. Biodiversity loss due to climate change varies only modestly across the scenarios. Climate change is lowest in the ‘low meat high efficiency’ scenario, in which by 2050 around 660 million hectares of pasture are converted to biomass plantation that is used for BECCS. However, the resulting withdrawal of energy from managed ecosystems has a large negative impact on biodiversity. Although the effects of energy withdrawal and climate change on biodiversity cannot be directly compared, this suggests that using bio-energy to tackle climate change in order to limit biodiversity loss could instead have the opposite effect.

  6. Scenarios for future biodiversity loss due to multiple drivers reveal conflict between mitigating climate change and preserving biodiversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We assess the potential for future biodiversity loss due to three interacting factors: energy withdrawal from ecosystems due to biomass harvest, habitat loss due to land-use change, and climate change. We develop four scenarios to 2050 with different combinations of high or low agricultural efficiency and high or low meat diets, and use species–energy and species–area relationships to estimate their effects on biodiversity. In our scenarios, natural ecosystems are protected except when additional land is necessary to fulfil the increasing dietary demands of the global population. Biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is used as a means of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere (and offsetting fossil fuel emissions). BECCS is based on waste biomass, with the addition of bio-energy crops only when already managed land is no longer needed for food production. Forecast biodiversity loss from natural biomes increases by more than a factor of five in going from high to low agricultural efficiency scenarios, due to destruction of productive habitats by the expansion of pasture. Biodiversity loss from energy withdrawal on managed land varies by a factor of two across the scenarios. Biodiversity loss due to climate change varies only modestly across the scenarios. Climate change is lowest in the ‘low meat high efficiency’ scenario, in which by 2050 around 660 million hectares of pasture are converted to biomass plantation that is used for BECCS. However, the resulting withdrawal of energy from managed ecosystems has a large negative impact on biodiversity. Although the effects of energy withdrawal and climate change on biodiversity cannot be directly compared, this suggests that using bio-energy to tackle climate change in order to limit biodiversity loss could instead have the opposite effect. (letter)

  7. The implications of carbon dioxide and methane exchange for the heavy mitigation RCP2.6 scenario under two metrics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huntingford, Chris; Lowe, Jason A.; Howarth, Nicholas; Bowerman, Niel H.A.; Gohar, Laila K.; Otto, Alexander; Lee, David S.; Smith, Stephen M.; den Elzen, Michel G.J.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Millar, Richard J.; Allen, Myles R.

    2015-01-01

    Greenhouse gas emissions associated with Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 could limit global warming to around or below a 2°C increase since pre-industrial times. However this scenario implies very large and rapid reductions in both carbon dioxide (CO2) and non-CO2 emissions, and suggests

  8. The potential for greenhouse gases mitigation in household sector of Iran: cases of price reform/efficiency improvement and scenario for 2000-2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iran's demographic profile is sharply youth oriented and this upcoming generation's needs for employment and housing, coupled with low-energy efficiency vectors and consumption patterns, has created a constant rise in energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions in the residential sector. Improved energy efficiency as a national policy lynchpin for demand reduction and GHGs mitigation, has become commonplace. OPEC countries however, Iran included, suffer an obvious lack of consumer incentive because of low fuel prices. This study evaluates the twin impacts of price reform and efficiency programs on energy carriers' consumption and GHGs mitigation in the Iranian housing sector. For this purpose, the demand functions for energy carriers, has been developed by econometrics process models. The results reveal that price elasticity for electricity demand in the Constant Elasticity Model for the short-run while the long-run is -0.142 and -0.901, respectively. In the Variable Elasticity Model the 250% increase in electricity rates in the short-run resulted in a price elasticity change from -0.02 to -0.475, hence the 250% increase in electricity pricing for the long-run resulted in the price elasticity change from -0.15 to -2.0. Finally, aided by a Scenario-Based Approach the impact of fuel pricing and efficiency improvement in trends of energy demand and GHGs emission were assessed in a Scenarios Base, developed on two different cases of Business-as-Usual (BAU) and Management. The results indicate that in the BAU case between 2000 and 2011, the energy demand and CO2 emission increases with an annual growth rate of 7.5% and 6.8%, respectively. Comparatively, if the energy carriers' price is increased to border price and energy efficiency programs are implemented, they will stimulate carriers' demand and CO2 emissions growth rate decreases to 4.94% and 3.1%, respectively

  9. Local-scale climate scenarios for impact studies and risk assessments: integration of early 21st century ENSEMBLES projections into the ELPIS database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calanca, Pierluigi; Semenov, Mikhail A.

    2013-08-01

    We present the integration of early 21st century climate projections for Europe based on simulations carried out within the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project with the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator. The aim was to upgrade ELPIS, a repository of local-scale climate scenarios for use in impact studies and risk assessments that already included global projections from the CMIP3 ensemble and regional scenarios for Japan. To obtain a more reliable simulation of daily rainfall and extremes, changes in wet and dry series derived from daily ENSEMBLES outputs were taken into account. Kernel average smoothers were used to reduce noise arising from sampling artefacts. Examples of risk analyses based on 25-km climate projections from the ENSEMBLES ensemble of regional climate models illustrate the possibilities offered by the updated version of ELPIS. The results stress the importance of tailored information for local-scale impact assessments at the European level.

  10. Air quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from the regional to local scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; Perrussel, O.; Honore, C.; Vautard, R.; Klimont, Z.; Rao, S.

    2014-07-01

    Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. A high-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional-scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10-year control simulation. Ozone is in very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by 20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present-day levels over Paris is modeled under the "business-as-usual" scenario (+7 ppb) while a more optimistic "mitigation" scenario leads to a moderate ozone decrease (-3.5 ppb) in year 2050. These results are substantially different to previous regional-scale projections where 2050 ozone is found to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the current urban-scale study is driven by volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited chemistry, whereas at the regional-scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at different scales. In rural areas, projections at both scales yield similar results showing that the longer timescale processes of emission transport and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios, respectively, compared to the present-day period. The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions resulting in the

  11. Air-quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from regional to local scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; Perrussel, O.; Honore, C.; Vautard, R.; Klimont, Z.; Rao, S.

    2014-01-01

    Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. High-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10 yr control simulation. Ozone is in very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by 20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present time levels over Paris is modeled under the "business as usual" scenario (+7 ppb) while a more optimistic mitigation scenario leads to moderate ozone decrease (-3.5 ppb) in year 2050. These results are substantially different to previous regional scale projections where 2050 ozone is found to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the current, urban scale study, is driven by VOC-limited chemistry, whereas at the regional scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at different scales. In rural areas projections at both scales yield similar results showing that the longer time-scale processes of emission transport and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under "business as usual" and "mitigation" scenarios respectively compared to present time period. The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions resulting in the smoothing of the large urban increment

  12. Air-quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from regional to local scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Markakis

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. High-resolution (1 km × 1 km emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10 yr control simulation. Ozone is in very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by 20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present time levels over Paris is modeled under the "business as usual" scenario (+7 ppb while a more optimistic mitigation scenario leads to moderate ozone decrease (−3.5 ppb in year 2050. These results are substantially different to previous regional scale projections where 2050 ozone is found to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the current, urban scale study, is driven by VOC-limited chemistry, whereas at the regional scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at different scales. In rural areas projections at both scales yield similar results showing that the longer time-scale processes of emission transport and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under "business as usual" and "mitigation" scenarios respectively compared to present time period. The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions resulting in the smoothing of the large

  13. China’s Low-Carbon Scenario Analysis of CO2 Mitigation Measures towards 2050 Using a Hybrid AIM/CGE Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Li

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available China’s emissions continue to rise rapidly in line with its mounting energy consumption, which puts considerable pressure on China to meet its emission reduction commitments. This paper assesses the impacts of CO2 mitigation measures in China during the period from 2010 to 2050 by using a computable general equilibrium method, called AIM/CGE. Results show that renewable energy makes a critical difference in abating emissions during the period from 2010 to 2020. The scenarios with emission trading would drive more emission reductions, whereby the emission-cutting commitment for 2020 would be achieved and emission reductions in 2050 would be more than 57.90%. Meanwhile, the share of non-fossil energy increases significantly and would be more than doubled in 2050 compared with the BAU scenario. A carbon tax would result in a significant decline in emissions in the short term, but would have an adverse effect on economic growth and energy structure improvements. It is also observed that the integrated measures would not only substantially decrease the total emissions, but also improve the energy structure.

  14. Projected changes of soil organic carbon in agricultural soils of southeast Germany in the 21th century under different carbon input scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiesmeier, Martin; Poeplau, Christopher; Sierra, Carlos; Maier, Harald; Hübner, Rico; Kühnel, Anna; Spörlein, Peter; Geuß, Uwe; Hangen, Edzard; Schilling, Bernd; von Lützow, Margit; Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid

    2016-04-01

    As climate change may have a distinct effect on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, projections of the future SOC development on larger spatial scales on the basis of soil carbon models are needed. In this study we simulated the SOC development in cropland and grassland soils of Bavaria (southeast Germany) between 2000 and 2095 using the RothC model. At 51 sampling locations detailed model input data as C pools derived by soil fractionation, C input, clay content and climate variables were determined to run the model. Projections for each sampling location were performed on the basis of an average climate scenario (A1B) and three C input scenarios as a realistic range of possible crop yield developments: stagnation of the C input (1) increase by 20% (2) and decrease by 20% (3). The results showed a general decline of SOC stocks of 12% during the 21th century under C input scenario 1 and a decrease of 21% under scenario 3. Remarkably, even the optimistic scenario 2 resulted in a noticeable decline of SOC stocks by 5%. Our study indicated that C inputs in agricultural soils of Bavaria have to increase by 30% until 2095 (given the A1B climate scenario) in order to maintain present SOC stocks. However, projected SOC changes largely depended on the soil unit and regional site characteristics. The modeling approach provides the basis for a further evaluation of changes of the land use management and enables a site-specific delineation of measures for a sustainable supply of soil organic matter under climate change.

  15. Introducing land-cover and land-use changes in a climate scenario of the 21. century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main objective of this work has been to run a climate simulation of the 21. century that includes not only greenhouse gases and aerosols emitted by human activity but also land-use and land-cover changes. To achieve this goal, the integrated impact model IMAGE2.2 (developed at RIVM, The Netherlands) was used, which simulates the evolution of greenhouse gases concentrations as well as land-cover changes. This model has been coupled to the general circulation model ARPEGE/OPA provided by the CNRM. Before coupling the models, sensitivity experiments with each model have been performed to test their respective sensitivity to the forcing of the other. Ultimately, a simulation with the two models coupled together has shown that interactions between climate and vegetation are not of primary importance for century scale studies. (author)

  16. Mass losses from Svalbard land-terminating glaciers by the end of the 21st century under an RCP 8.5 scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Möller, Marco; Navarro, Francisco; Martín-Español, Alba

    2016-04-01

    The high Arctic archipelagos are among the most strongly glacierized landscapes on earth apart from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Svalbard, one of these archipelagos, holds about 36,000 km2 of glaciers and ice caps and is the region that has shown the least negative mass balance of all the high Arctic regions. However, future projections suggest that the archipelago will experience an unprecedented -for the Arctic- glacier recession over the 21st century. We here present a high-resolution modelling study of the future ice-mass evolution of 29 individual land-terminating glaciers on the Svalbard archipelago under an RCP 8.5 climate forcing, a rather pessimistic scenario that unfortunately seems to be becoming realistic. Our model calculates glacier mass balance and area/volume changes using a temperature-index approach in combination with a surface elevation change parameterization. The initial glacier topographies and volumes have been assessed from extensive ground-penetrating radar measurements carried out in recent years. The calculations are performed for the 21st century and are forced by statistically downscaled output of ten different global circulation models representing the RCP scenario 8.5. By a topography-based extrapolation of the simulation results to the entire archipelago we show that a complete loss of most of Svalbard's land-terminating glaciers and even a deglaciation of certain subregions of the archipelago might occur by the end of the 21st century. 98% of the land-terminating glaciers will have retreated to less than one tenth of their initial extent by 2100, resulting in a loss of 7392±2481 km2 of ice coverage.

  17. A 'must-go path' scenario for sustainable development and the role of nuclear energy in the 21st century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An increase in the world population has accelerated the consumption of fossil fuels and deepened the pollution of global environment. As a result of these human activities, it is now difficult to clearly guarantee the sustainable future of humankind. An intuitional 'must-go path' scenario for the sustainable development of human civilization is proposed by extrapolating the human historical data over 30 years between 1970 and 2000. One of the most important parameters in order to realize the 'must-go path' scenario is the sustainability of energy without further pollution. In some countries an expanded use of nuclear energy is advantageous to increase sustainability, but fast reactor technology and closed fuel cycle have to be introduced to make it sustainable. In other countries, the development of cost-effective renewable energy, and the clean use of coal and oil are urgently needed to reduce pollution. The effect of fast nuclear reactor technology on sustainability as an option for near-term energy source is detailed in this paper. More cooperation between countries and worldwide collaboration coordinated by international organizations are essential to make the 'must-go path' scenario real in the upcoming 20 or 30 years.

  18. Application of an extreme winter storm scenario to identify vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the Sierra Nevada mountains, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albano, Christine M.; Dettinger, Michael; McCarthy, Maureen; Schaller, Kevin D.; Wellborn, Toby; Cox, Dale A.

    2016-01-01

    In the Sierra Nevada mountains (USA), and geographically similar areas across the globe where human development is expanding, extreme winter storm and flood risks are expected to increase with changing climate, heightening the need for communities to assess risks and better prepare for such events. In this case study, we demonstrate a novel approach to examining extreme winter storm and flood risks. We incorporated high-resolution atmospheric–hydrologic modeling of the ARkStorm extreme winter storm scenario with multiple modes of engagement with practitioners, including a series of facilitated discussions and a tabletop emergency management exercise, to develop a regional assessment of extreme storm vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the greater Lake Tahoe region of Northern Nevada and California, USA. Through this process, practitioners discussed issues of concern across all phases of the emergency management life cycle, including preparation, response, recovery, and mitigation. Interruption of transportation, communications, and interagency coordination were among the most pressing concerns, and specific approaches for addressing these issues were identified, including prepositioning resources, diversifying communications systems, and improving coordination among state, tribal, and public utility practitioners. Science needs included expanding real-time monitoring capabilities to improve the precision of meteorological models and enhance situational awareness, assessing vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure, and conducting cost–benefit analyses to assess opportunities to improve both natural and human-made infrastructure to better withstand extreme storms. Our approach and results can be used to support both land use and emergency planning activities aimed toward increasing community resilience to extreme winter storm hazards in mountainous regions.

  19. Assessment of the potential of state-of-the-art biomass technologies in contributing to a sustainable SADC regional mitigation energy scenario[Southern African Development Community

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamba, F.D.; Matsika, E. [Centre for Energy, Environment and Engineering Zambia, Lusaka (Zambia)

    2003-09-01

    Southern Africa's energy supply is based on power sector collaboration - the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP). SAPP was created in 1995 through an inter-utility memorandum of understanding among 12 of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) utilities including Congo DR. The aims of SAPP are: To increase regional security of supply; To smoothen load curves; To engender economies of scale in the supply base; To increase revenue for exporting countries by opening up a ready market; To share power to meet national shortfalls and to off set temporary deficits in the medium term, and in the long term to adopt and implement power sharing as an operational strategy aimed at maximising financial and environmental benefits. Currently, SAPP has an operational installed capacity of 45.000 MW, of which 84% is thermal, predominantly coal based, which represents 79% of the total supply. 16% of the total SAPP interconnected supply is hydro, while the contribution from biomass is currently non-existent. The sugar industry in Southern Africa can significantly alter this picture. Increased competitive pressures serve as economic incentives for the sugar industry to diversify their product portfolio by investing in renewable energy applications. Of the new state-of-the-art biomass based technologies available Condensing Extraction Steam Turbine (CEST) is the most promising. Application of CEST technologies in Southern Africa will modestly contribute towards a sustainable energy supply mitigation scenario. If implemented, the contribution of bioenergy will increase from 0.5% for the baseline situation, to 2.5% in 2030 and 3.0% in 2050. This scenario will also yield global environmental benefits potential through saving of GHG reductions to 14 million tonnes CO{sub 2} in 2030 and 20 million tonnes CO{sub 2} in 2050. Furthermore, this paper produces a monogram which will assist investors in making decisions whether to invest in the Kyoto Protocols Clean Development

  20. Japan's Long-term Energy Demand and Supply Scenario to 2050 - Estimation for the Potential of Massive CO2 Mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Komiyama, Ryoichi; Marnay, Chris; Stadler, Michael; Lai, Judy; Borgeson, Sam; Coffey, Brian; Azevedo, Ines Lima

    2009-09-01

    In this analysis, the authors projected Japan's energy demand/supply and energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions to 2050. Their analysis of various scenarios indicated that Japan's CO{sub 2} emissions in 2050 could be potentially reduced by 26-58% from the current level (FY 2005). These results suggest that Japan could set a CO{sub 2} emission reduction target for 2050 at between 30% and 60%. In order to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions by 60% in 2050 from the present level, Japan will have to strongly promote energy conservation at the same pace as an annual rate of 1.9% after the oil crises (to cut primary energy demand per GDP (TPES/GDP) in 2050 by 60% from 2005) and expand the share of non-fossil energy sources in total primary energy supply in 2050 to 50% (to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions per primary energy demand (CO{sub 2}/TPES) in 2050 by 40% from 2005). Concerning power generation mix in 2050, nuclear power will account for 60%, solar and other renewable energy sources for 20%, hydro power for 10% and fossil-fired generation for 10%, indicating substantial shift away from fossil fuel in electric power supply. Among the mitigation measures in the case of reducing CO{sub 2} emissions by 60% in 2050, energy conservation will make the greatest contribution to the emission reduction, being followed by solar power, nuclear power and other renewable energy sources. In order to realize this massive CO{sub 2} abatement, however, Japan will have to overcome technological and economic challenges including the large-scale deployment of nuclear power and renewable technologies.

  1. Drivers of the tropospheric ozone budget throughout the 21st century under the medium-high climate scenario RCP 6.0

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. E. Revell

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Because tropospheric ozone is both a~greenhouse gas and harmful air pollutant, it is important to understand how anthropogenic activities may influence its abundance and distribution through the 21st century. Here, we present model simulations performed with the chemistry-climate model SOCOL, in which spatially disaggregated chemistry and transport tracers have been implemented in order to better understand the distribution and projected changes in tropospheric ozone. We examine the influences of ozone precursor emissions (nitrogen oxides (NOx, carbon monoxide (CO and volatile organic compounds (VOCs, climate change and stratospheric ozone recovery on the tropospheric ozone budget, in a~simulation following the climate scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 6.0. Changes in ozone precursor emissions have the largest effect, leading to a global-mean increase in tropospheric ozone which maximises in the early 21st century at 23%. The increase is most pronounced at northern midlatitudes, due to regional emission patterns: between 1990 and 2060, northern midlatitude tropospheric ozone remains at constantly large abundances: 31% larger than in 1960. Over this 70 year period, attempts to reduce emissions in Europe and North America do not have an effect on zonally-averaged northern midlatitude ozone because of increasing emissions from Asia, together with the longevity of ozone in the troposphere. A~simulation with fixed anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions of NOx, CO and non-methane VOCs at 1960 conditions shows a 6 % increase in global-mean tropospheric ozone, and an 11% increase at northern midlatitudes. This increase maximises in the 2080s, and is mostly caused by methane, which maximises in the 2080s following RCP 6.0, and plays an important role in controlling ozone directly, and indirectly through its influence on other VOCs and CO. Enhanced flux of ozone from the stratosphere to the troposphere as well as climate change

  2. ADAM adaptation and mitigation strategies: supporting European climate policy. Deliverable D3 of work package M1 (code D-M1.3). ADAM 2-degree scenario for Europe - policies and impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schade, Wolfgang; Jochem, Eberhard; Barker, Terry (and others)

    2009-07-31

    ADAM research identifies and appraises existing and new policy options that can contribute to different combinations of adaptation and mitigation strategies. These options address the demands a changing climate will place on protecting citizens and valuable ecosystems - i.e., adaptation - as well as addressing the necessity to restrain/control humankind's perturbation to global climate to a desirable level - i.e., mitigation. The work package Mitigation 1 (Ml) has the core objective to simulate mitigation options and their related costs for Europe until 2050 and 2100 respectively. The focus of this deliverable is on the period 2005 to 2050. The long-term period until 2100 is covered in the previous deliverable D2, applying the POLES model for this time horizon. The analysis constitutes basically a techno-economic analysis. Depending on the sector analyzed it is either directly combined with a policy analysis (e.g. in the transport sector, renewables sector) or the policy analysis is performed qualitatively as a subsequent and independent step after the techno-economic analysis is completed (e.g. in the residential and service sectors). The book includes the following chapters: scenarios and macroeconomic assumptions; methodological issues analyzing mitigation options; the integrated global energy model POLES and its projections for the reference and 2 deg C scenarios; forest and basic materials sector; residential sector in Europe; the service (tertiary) and the primary sectors in Europe; basic products and other manufacturing industry sectors; transport sectors in Europe; renewable sector in Europe; conversion sector in Europe; syntheses and sectoral analysis in Europe; macroeconomic impacts of climate policy in the EU; the effects of the financial crisis on baseline simulations with implications for climate policy modeling: an analysis using the global model E3MG 2008-2012; conclusions and policy recommendations.

  3. Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marengo, Jose A.; Valverde, Maria C.; Torres, Roger R.; Santos, Daniel C. [Centro de Ciencia do Sistema Terrestre, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, CCST/INPE, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Ambrizzi, Tercio; Rocha, Rosmeri P. da [University of Sao Paulo, IAG-DCA/USP, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Alves, Lincoln M. [Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, CPTEC/INPE, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Cuadra, Santiago V. [Universidade Federal de Vicosa, Vicosa, MG (Brazil); Ferraz, Simone E.T. [Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, RS (Brazil)

    2010-11-15

    Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961-1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071-2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5 N-15 S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6-8 C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4 C and in winter between 3 and 5 C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of

  4. Bridging gaps in bioenergy: Deploying system analysis to investigate potential biomass supply, demand and greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios from a national, European and global perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoefnagels, E.T.A.

    2014-01-01

    In transition towards a sustainable energy system with deep reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reduced consumption of fossil fuels, substitution of fossil energy carriers with biomass is considered one of the most important options. In the last decade, fossil energy and GHG mitigation

  5. Assessment of spatiotemporal variations in the fluvial wash-load component in the 21st century with regard to GCM climate change scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mouri, Goro, E-mail: mouri@rainbow.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp

    2015-11-15

    For stream water, in which a relationship exists between wash-load concentration and discharge, an estimate of fine-sediment delivery may be obtained from a traditional fluvial wash-load rating curve. Here, we demonstrate that the remaining wash-load material load can be estimated from a traditional empirical principle on a nationwide scale. The traditional technique was applied to stream water for the whole of Japan. Four typical GCMs were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields for the following regional climate models to assess the wash-load component based on rating curves: the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model. The simulations consisted of an ensemble, including multiple physics configurations and different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), which was used to produce monthly datasets for the whole country of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on fluvial wash load in Japanese stream water were based on the balance of changes in hydrological factors. The annual and seasonal variations of the fluvial wash load were assessed from the result of the ensemble analysis in consideration of the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission scenarios. The determined results for the amount of wash load increase range from approximately 20 to 110% in the 2040s, especially along part of the Pacific Ocean and the Sea of Japan regions. In the 2090s, the amount of wash load is projected to increase by more than 50% over the whole of Japan. The assessment indicates that seasonal variation is particularly important because the rainy and typhoon seasons, which include extreme events, are the dominant seasons. Because fluvial wash-load-component turbidity

  6. Assessment of spatiotemporal variations in the fluvial wash-load component in the 21st century with regard to GCM climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For stream water, in which a relationship exists between wash-load concentration and discharge, an estimate of fine-sediment delivery may be obtained from a traditional fluvial wash-load rating curve. Here, we demonstrate that the remaining wash-load material load can be estimated from a traditional empirical principle on a nationwide scale. The traditional technique was applied to stream water for the whole of Japan. Four typical GCMs were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields for the following regional climate models to assess the wash-load component based on rating curves: the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model. The simulations consisted of an ensemble, including multiple physics configurations and different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), which was used to produce monthly datasets for the whole country of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on fluvial wash load in Japanese stream water were based on the balance of changes in hydrological factors. The annual and seasonal variations of the fluvial wash load were assessed from the result of the ensemble analysis in consideration of the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission scenarios. The determined results for the amount of wash load increase range from approximately 20 to 110% in the 2040s, especially along part of the Pacific Ocean and the Sea of Japan regions. In the 2090s, the amount of wash load is projected to increase by more than 50% over the whole of Japan. The assessment indicates that seasonal variation is particularly important because the rainy and typhoon seasons, which include extreme events, are the dominant seasons. Because fluvial wash-load-component turbidity

  7. A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY...

  8. The differential impact of low-carbon technologies on climate change mitigation cost under a range of socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper considers the effect of several key parameters of low carbon energy technologies on the cost of abatement. A methodology for determining the minimum level of performance required for a parameter to have a statistically significant impact on CO2 abatement cost is developed and used to evaluate the impact of eight key parameters of low carbon energy supply technologies on the cost of CO2 abatement. The capital cost of nuclear technology is found to have the greatest impact of the parameters studied. The cost of biomass and CCS technologies also have impacts, while their efficiencies have little, if any. Sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to population, GDP, and CO2 emission constraint show that the minimum performance level and impact of nuclear technologies is consistent across the socioeconomic scenarios studied, while the other technology parameters show different performance under higher population, lower GDP scenarios. Solar technology was found to have a small impact, and then only at very low costs. These results indicate that the cost of nuclear is the single most important driver of abatement cost, and that trading efficiency for cost may make biomass and CCS technologies more competitive. - Highlights: • The impact of low carbon energy technology on abatement cost is considered. • Nuclear has the largest impact among technologies considered. • Cost has higher impact than efficiency for biomass technologies. • Biomass technologies generally have larger impacts than carbon capture. • Biomass technologies are more valuable in low GDP, high population scenarios

  9. Numerical study for beam loss occurring for wide-ranging transverse injection painting and its mitigation scenario in the J-PARC 3-GeV RCS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the J-PARC 3-GeV Rapid Cycling Synchrotron (RCS), transverse injection painting is utilized to manipulate the transverse beam profile according to the requirements from the downstream facilities as well as to mitigate the space-charge induced beam loss in RCS. Therefore, a flexible control is required for the transverse painting area. But now the available range of transverse painting is limited to small area due to beta function beating caused by the edge focus of injection bump magnets which operate during the beam injection period. This beta function beating additionally excites various random betatron resonances through a distortion of the lattice super-periodicity, causing a shrinkage of the dynamic aperture during the injection period. This decrease of the dynamic aperture leads to extra beam loss at present when applying large transverse painting. For beta function beating caused by the edge focus, we proposed a correction scheme with additional pulse-type quadrupole correctors. In this paper, we will discuss the feasibility and effectiveness of this correction scheme for expanding the transverse injection painting area with no extra beam loss, while considering the beam loss and its mitigation mechanisms, based on numerical simulations

  10. Numerical study for beam loss occurring for wide-ranging transverse injection painting and its mitigation scenario in the J-PARC 3-GeV RCS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hotchi, Hideaki; Tani, Norio; Watanabe, Yasuhiro

    2015-04-01

    In the J-PARC 3-GeV Rapid Cycling Synchrotron (RCS), transverse injection painting is utilized to manipulate the transverse beam profile according to the requirements from the downstream facilities as well as to mitigate the space-charge induced beam loss in RCS. Therefore, a flexible control is required for the transverse painting area. But now the available range of transverse painting is limited to small area due to beta function beating caused by the edge focus of injection bump magnets which operate during the beam injection period. This beta function beating additionally excites various random betatron resonances through a distortion of the lattice super-periodicity, causing a shrinkage of the dynamic aperture during the injection period. This decrease of the dynamic aperture leads to extra beam loss at present when applying large transverse painting. For beta function beating caused by the edge focus, we proposed a correction scheme with additional pulse-type quadrupole correctors. In this paper, we will discuss the feasibility and effectiveness of this correction scheme for expanding the transverse injection painting area with no extra beam loss, while considering the beam loss and its mitigation mechanisms, based on numerical simulations.

  11. Scenarios Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Assumptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmonds, J.

    2013-12-01

    A set of new scenarios is being developed by the international scientific community as part of a larger program that was articulated in Moss, et al. (2009), published in Nature. A long series of meetings including climate researchers drawn from the climate modeling, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) and integrated assessment modeling (IAM) communities have led to the development of a set of five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale over the course of the 21st century without regard to climate mitigation or change. SSPs were designed to explore a range of possible futures consistent with greater or lesser challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. They include a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures--e.g. demographic and economic profiles--that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate feedback. SSPs can be used to develop quantitative scenarios of human Earth systems using IAMs. IAMs produce information about greenhouse gas emissions, energy systems, the economy, agriculture and land use. Each set of SSPs will have a different human Earth system realization for each IAM. Five groups from the IAM community have begun to explore the implications of SSP assumptions for emissions, energy, economy, agriculture and land use. We report the quantitative results of initial experiments from those groups. A major goal of the Moss, et al. strategy was to enable the use of CMIP5 climate model ensemble products for IAV research. CMIP5 climate scenarios used four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, defined in terms of radiative forcing in the year 2100: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 Wm-2. There is no reason to believe that the SSPs will generate year 2100 levels of radiative forcing that correspond to the four RCP levels, though it is important that at least one SSP produce a

  12. Relative outcomes of climate change mitigation related to global temperature versus sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Tebaldi, Claudia; Arblaster, Julie M.; Washington, Warren M.; Teng, Haiyan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Ault, Toby; Strand, Warren G.; White, James B.

    2012-08-01

    There is a common perception that, if human societies make the significant adjustments necessary to substantively cut emissions of greenhouse gases, global temperature increases could be stabilized, and the most dangerous consequences of climate change could be avoided. Here we show results from global coupled climate model simulations with the new representative concentration pathway mitigation scenarios to 2300 to illustrate that, with aggressive mitigation in two of the scenarios, globally averaged temperature increase indeed could be stabilized either below 2 °C or near 3 °C above pre-industrial values. However, even as temperatures stabilize, sea level would continue to rise. With little mitigation, future sea-level rise would be large and continue unabated for centuries. Though sea-level rise cannot be stopped for at least the next several hundred years, with aggressive mitigation it can be slowed down, and this would buy time for adaptation measures to be adopted.

  13. The differential impact of low-carbon technologies on climate change mitigation cost under a range of socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barron, Robert W.; McJeon, Haewon C.

    2015-05-01

    This paper considers the effect of several key parameters of low carbon energy technologies on the cost of abatement. A methodology for determining the minimum level of performance required for a parameter to have a statistically significant impact on CO2 abatement cost is developed and used to evaluate the impact of eight key parameters of low carbon energy supply technologies on the cost of CO2 abatement. The capital cost of nuclear technology is found to have the greatest impact of the parameters studied. The cost of biomass and CCS technologies also have impacts, while their efficiencies have little, if any. Sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to population, GDP, and CO2 emission constraint show that the minimum performance level and impact of nuclear technologies is consistent across the socioeconomic scenarios studied, while the other technology parameters show different performance under higher population, lower GDP scenarios. Solar technology was found to have a small impact, and then only at very low costs. These results indicate that the cost of nuclear is the single most important driver of abatement cost, and that trading efficiency for cost may make biomass and CCS technologies more competitive.

  14. Introducing land-cover and land-use changes in a climate scenario of the 21. century; Prise en compte des changements de vegetation dans un scenario climatique du 21. siecle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Voldoire, A

    2005-03-15

    The main objective of this work has been to run a climate simulation of the 21. century that includes not only greenhouse gases and aerosols emitted by human activity but also land-use and land-cover changes. To achieve this goal, the integrated impact model IMAGE2.2 (developed at RIVM, The Netherlands) was used, which simulates the evolution of greenhouse gases concentrations as well as land-cover changes. This model has been coupled to the general circulation model ARPEGE/OPA provided by the CNRM. Before coupling the models, sensitivity experiments with each model have been performed to test their respective sensitivity to the forcing of the other. Ultimately, a simulation with the two models coupled together has shown that interactions between climate and vegetation are not of primary importance for century scale studies. (author)

  15. Fuel demand projections and comparison of CO2 mitigation scenarios for Brazil until 2035; Projecoes de demanda de combustiveis e comparacao entre cenarios de mitigacao das emissoes de CO2 para o Brasil ate 2035

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ribas, Rodrigo Pacheco; Araujo, Maria Silvia Muylaert de; Freitas, Marcos Aurelio Vasconcelo de; Rosa, Luiz Pinguelli; Silva, Neilton Fidelis da; Campos, Antonio F. [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil); Campos, Christiano Pires de; Gutierres, Ricardo [Petroleo Brasileiro S.A (CENPES/PETROBRAS), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Centro de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento; Lampreia, Joao [Agencia Internacional de Energia (IEA), Paris (France)

    2012-07-01

    This article results from work undertaken by the technical cooperation between the Leopoldo Americo Miguez de Mello Research and Development Center of PETROBRAS (CENPES/PETROBRAS) and the International Virtual Institute of Global Change (IVIG/Coppe/UFRJ), evaluates how the Oil Sector and the fuels demand (petroleum and natural gas) from Brazil will be impacted in the short, medium and long term for current climate change mitigation policies, as for possible proposals to the second period of the Kyoto Protocol (post-2012). Thus, emission scenarios were developed by 2035 as among the main greenhouse gases (GHG), carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), considering data from the World Energy Outlook 2010 / International Energy Agency (IEA), the Second National Inventory of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions, from the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI) and the Ten Year Plan for Energy Expansion (PDE), from the Energy Research Company (EPE) / Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME). (author)

  16. An "acceptable" low carbon scenario for France: Participatory scenario design and economic assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Bibas, Ruben; Mathy, Sandrine; Fink, Meike

    2012-01-01

    The implementation of climate policies is often hindered by a lack of acceptability as well as the lack of long-term vision of stakeholders. Mitigation scenarios exercises allow the debate; however the scenario design process lacks transparency and stakeholders' (and citizens') involvement, which leads to a lack of credibility, legitimacy and ownership of mitigation scenarios. This paper presents a process for the collaborative design of an "acceptable" mitigation scenario through a public di...

  17. Increase in surface runoff in the central mountains of Mexico: lessons from the past and predictive scenario for the next century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Gratiot

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological response of a medium scale mountainous watershed (Mexico is analysed over half a century. The hydrograph separation highlights an increasing surface runoff contribution since the early 1970's. This increase is attributed to land use changes while the meteorological forcing (rains remains statistically stable over the same period. As a consequence, the intensity of annual extreme floods has tripled up over the period of survey, increasing flood risks in the region. The paper ends with a climatic projection over the 21st century. The decrease of precipitation and the increase of temperature should accentuate the trend engaged since the 1970's by reducing groundwater resources and increasing surface-runoff and associated risks.

  18. Köppen–Geiger climate classification by different regional climate models according to the SRES A1B scenario in the 21st century

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Szabó-Takács, Beáta; Farda, Aleš; Zahradníček, Pavel; Štěpánek, Petr

    Brno: Global Change Research Centre, The Czech Academy of Sciences, v. v. i., 2015 - (Urban, O.; Šprtová, M.; Klem, K.), s. 18-21 ISBN 978-80-87902-10-3. [Global Change: A Complex Challenge /4th/. Brno (CZ), 23.03.2015-24.03.2015] R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : climate models * climate classification * 21st century Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour

  19. Global energy scenarios, climate change and sustainable development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Energy scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including various combinations of technology options and their implications. Many scenarios in the literature illustrate how energy system developments may affect global change. Examples are the new emissions scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the energy scenarios by the World Energy Assessment (WEA). Some of these scenarios describe energy futures that are compatible with sustainable development goals; such as improved energy efficiencies and the adoption of advanced energy supply technologies. Sustainable development scenarios are also characterized by low environmental impacts (at local, regional and global scales) and equitable allocation of resources and wealth. They can help explore different transitions toward sustainable development paths and alternative energy perspectives in general. The considerable differences in expected total energy requirements among the scenarios reflect the varying approaches used to address the need for energy services in the future and demonstrate effects of different policy frameworks, changes in human behavior and investments in the future, as well as alternative unfolding of the main scenario driving forces such as demographic transitions, economic development and technological change. Increases in research, development and deployment efforts for new energy technologies are a prerequisite for achieving further social and economic development in the world. Significant technological advances will be required, as well as incremental improvements in conventional energy technologies. In general, significant policy and behavioral changes will be needed during the next few decades to achieve more sustainable development paths and mitigate climate change toward the end of the century. (au)

  20. Air-quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from regional to local scale

    OpenAIRE

    K. Markakis; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; O. Perrussel; C. Honore; Vautard, R.; Z. Klimont; Rao, S.

    2014-01-01

    Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. High-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed bas...

  1. Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, Allison M; Calvin, Katherine V; Chini, Louise P; Hurtt, George; Edmonds, James A; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Frolking, Steve; Wise, Marshall A; Janetos, Anthony C

    2010-11-16

    Land-use change to meet 21st-century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will depend on many interactive factors, including global policies limiting anthropogenic climate change and realized improvements in agricultural productivity. Climate-change mitigation policies will alter the decision-making environment for land management, and changes in agricultural productivity will influence cultivated land expansion. We explore to what extent future increases in agricultural productivity might offset conversion of tropical forest lands to crop lands under a climate mitigation policy and a contrasting no-policy scenario in a global integrated assessment model. The Global Change Assessment Model is applied here to simulate a mitigation policy that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m(-2) (approximately 526 ppm CO(2)) in the year 2100 by introducing a price for all greenhouse gas emissions, including those from land use. These scenarios are simulated with several cases of future agricultural productivity growth rates and the results downscaled to produce gridded maps of potential land-use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved near their present-day extent, and bioenergy crops emerge as an effective mitigation option, only in cases in which a climate mitigation policy that includes an economic price for land-use emissions is in place, and in which agricultural productivity growth continues throughout the century. We find that idealized land-use emissions price assumptions are most effective at limiting deforestation, even when cropland area must increase to meet future food demand. These findings emphasize the importance of accounting for feedbacks from land-use change emissions in global climate change mitigation strategies. PMID:20921413

  2. Air quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from the regional to local scale

    OpenAIRE

    K. Markakis; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; O. Perrussel; C. Honore; Vautard, R.; Z. Klimont; Rao, S.

    2014-01-01

    Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. A high-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional-scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10-year...

  3. Is worst-case scenario streamflow drought underestimated in British Columbia? A multi-century perspective for the south coast, derived from tree-rings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coulthard, Bethany; Smith, Dan J.; Meko, David M.

    2016-03-01

    Recent streamflow droughts in south coastal British Columbia have had major socioeconomic and ecological impacts. Increasing drought severity under projected climate change poses serious water management challenges, particularly in the small coastal watersheds that serve as primary water sources for most communities in the region. A 332-year dendrohydrological record of regionalized mean summer streamflow for four watersheds is analyzed to place recent drought magnitudes in a long-term perspective. We present a novel approach for optimizing tree-ring based reconstructions in small watersheds in temperate environments, combining winter snow depth and summer drought sensitive proxies as model predictors. The reconstruction model, estimated by regression of observed flows on Tsuga mertensiana ring-width variables and a tree-ring derived paleorecord of the Palmer Drought Severity Index, explains 64% of the regionalized streamflow variance. The model is particularly accurate at estimating lowest flow events, and provides the strongest annually resolved paleohydrological record in British Columbia. The extended record suggests that since 1658 sixteen natural droughts have occurred that were more extreme than any within the instrumental period. Flow-duration curves show more severe worst-case scenario droughts and a higher probability of those droughts in the long-term reconstruction than in the hydrometric data. Such curves also highlight the value of dendrohydrology for probabilistic drought assessment. Our results suggest current water management strategies based on worst-case scenarios from historical gauge data likely underestimate the potential magnitudes of natural droughts. If the low-flow magnitudes anticipated under climate change co-occur with lowest possible natural flows, streamflow drought severities in small watersheds in south coastal British Columbia could exceed any of those experienced in the past ∼350 years.

  4. Strengthening of the hydrological cycle in future scenarios: atmospheric energy and water balance perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Alessandri

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Future climate scenarios experiencing global warming are expected to strengthen hydrological cycle during 21st century by comparison with the last decades of 20th century. We analyze strengthening of the global-scale increase in precipitation from the perspective of changes in whole atmospheric water and energy balances. Furthermore, by combining energy and water equations for the whole atmosphere we profitably obtain constraints for the changes in surface fluxes and for the partitioning at the surface between sensible and latent components.

    Above approach is applied to investigate difference in strengthening of hydrological cycle in two scenario centennial simulations performed with an Earth System model forced with specified atmospheric concentration pathways. Alongside the medium-high non-mitigation scenario SRES A1B, we considered a new aggressive-mitigation scenario (E1 with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K. Quite unexpectedly, mitigation scenario is shown to strengthen hydrological cycle more than SRES A1B till around 2070. Our analysis shows that this is mostly a consequence of the larger increase in the negative radiative imbalance of atmosphere in E1 compared to A1B. This appears to be primarily related to the abated aerosol concentration in E1, which considerably reduces atmospheric absorption of solar radiation compared to A1B.

    In contrast, last decades of 21st century (21C show marked increase of global precipitation in A1B compared to E1, despite the fact that the two scenarios display almost same overall increase of radiative imbalance with respect to 20th century. Our results show that radiative cooling is weakly effective in A1B throughout all 21C, so that two distinct mechanisms characterize the diverse strengthening of hydrological cycle in mid and end 21C. It is only through a very large perturbation of surface fluxes that A1B achieves larger increase

  5. CO2 emission scenarios for next centuries to obtain more complete simulations of the global warming; Scenari globali di emissione a lungo termine di CO2 per una simulazione piu' completa dell'effetto serra

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michelini, M. [ENEA, Divisione Sistemi Energetici per la Mobilita' e l' Habitat, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy)

    2001-07-01

    In the framework of a punctual Modeling of the Greenhouse Effect (report RT/ERG/2001/1) it is necessary to set CO2 Emission Scenarios for the next Centuries in order to obtain the complete evolution of the global warming. Some methodologies are described to approach such long term previsions. From the demand side, the growth of the consumes (which are affected by population and development) is correlated (supply side) with the technical-economic-environmental Evaluation of the future diffusion of classic sources (experienced in the past centuries) and of new Technologies and renewable sources. The previsions of the world population Growth are derived from the UNFPA publications. The degree of economic Development of the world Population in the very long term is obtained by simulating the Evolution of the Population across four main Areas characterized by different pro-capita consumes. Using these criteria two different Scenarios have been set-up and put into comparison with the SRES Scenarios published in the Third Assessment Report-WG1 of the IPCC. The cut at the year 2100 of the SRES Scenarios is also discussed. Simulations of the Global Warming in the long term have been performed with the two scenarios. These results are discussed together with the results of the Simulations reported by IPCC. [Italian] Nell'ambito della elaborazione di un modello puntuale per la simulazione del riscaldamento globale conseguente all'effetto serra, (rapporto tecnico RT/ERG/2001/1), viene ripresa la problematica degli scenari di emissione di CO2 per alcuni secoli al fine di poter studiare l'intera evoluzione del fenomeno. Per superare le difficolta' insite nelle previsioni riferite a un futuro tanto lontano, vengono indicate alcune metodologie. Dal lato domanda i principali fattori di crescita dei consumi (cioe' popolazione e sviluppo economico) vengono posti a confronto (lato offerta) con le modalita' di diffusione delle singole fonti desunte dai

  6. Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

  7. Bioenergy as a Mitigation Measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dass, P.; Brovkin, V.; Müller, C.; Cramer, W.

    2011-12-01

    Numerous studies have shown that bioenergy, being one of the renewable energies with the lowest costs, is expected to play an important role in the near future as climate change mitigation measure. Current practices of converting crop products such as carbohydrates or plant oils to ethanol or biodiesel have limited capabilities to curb emission. Moreover, they compete with food production for the most fertile lands. Thus, second generation bioenergy technologies are being developed to process lignocellulosic plant materials from fast growing tree and grass species. A number of deforestation experiments using Earth System models have shown that in the mid- to high latitudes, deforested surface albedo strongly increases in presence of snow. This biophysical effect causes cooling, which could dominate over the biogeochemical warming effect because of the carbon emissions due to deforestation. In order to find out the global bioenergy potential of extensive plantations in the mid- to high latitudes, and the resultant savings in carbon emissions, we use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL run at a high spatial resolution of 0.5°. It represents both natural and managed ecosystems, including the cultivation of cellulosic energy crops. LPJmL is run with 21st century projections of climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration based on the IPCC-SRES business as usual or A2 scenario. Latitudes above 45° in both hemispheres are deforested and planted with crops having the highest bioenergy return for the respective pixels of the model. The rest of the Earth has natural vegetation. The agricultural management intensity values are used such that it results in the best approximation for 1999 - 2003 national yields of wheat and maize as reported by FAOSTAT 2009. Four different scenarios of land management are used ranging from an idealistic or best case scenario, where all limitations of soil and terrain properties are managed to the worst case scenario where none of these

  8. Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Eric A.; Kanter, David

    2014-10-01

    Effective mitigation for N2O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N2O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N2O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N2O-N yr-1. Net anthropogenic N2O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N2O-N yr-1. Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N2O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N2O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N2O emissions is highly uncertain; N2O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N2O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions.

  9. Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Effective mitigation for N2O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N2O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N2O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N2O-N yr−1. Net anthropogenic N2O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N2O-N yr−1. Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N2O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N2O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N2O emissions is highly uncertain; N2O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N2O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions. (paper)

  10. Overview of a new scenario framework for climate change research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebi, K. L.

    2013-12-01

    -axis). They include a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate feedback. The reality that the development pathways may be affected by climate change will be taken into account when combining SSPs with climate change projections to generate a socioeconomic-climate scenario. The new scenario process, although complex, provides a flexible toolkit to facilitate research and assessment that can characterize the range of uncertainty in mitigation efforts required to achieve particular radiative forcing pathways, in adaptation efforts that could be undertaken to prepare for and respond to the climate change associated with those pathways, and in residual impacts.

  11. IPCC workshop on socio-economic scenarios. Workshop report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edenhofer, O.; Pichs-Madruga, R.; Sokona, Y. (and others)

    2012-07-01

    The goal of the IPCC Workshop on Socio-Economic Scenarios (WoSES) was to facilitate the development of socioeconomic narratives and pathways by the integrated assessment modelling, impacts, and adaptation communities. Describing these pathways and narratives is a core step to analyzing the interdependent issues of adaptation and mitigation in an integrated manner. The Workshop participants agreed that structured and consistent assessments of possible future impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation would benefit from using shared qualitative narrative and quantitative descriptions of potential socioeconomic and ecosystem reference conditions that underlie challenges to mitigation and adaptation. These descriptions should be flexible enough to provide a framework for comparison within which regional or local studies of adaptation and vulnerability could build their own narratives. The defining socioeconomic conditions of these scenarios are designated Shared Socioeconomic reference Pathways (SSPs). The SSPs define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale and have two elements: a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate change. This assumption defines the SSPs as a baseline independent of climate change projections. The set of SSPs was chosen to characterize the range of uncertainty in mitigation efforts required to achieve particular radiative forcing pathways, in adaptation efforts that could be undertaken to prepare for and respond to the climate change associated with those pathways, and in residual impacts. This will allow assessment of scenarios along two axes: socioeconomic challenges to mitigation, and socioeconomic challenges to adaptation. This conceptualization of SSPs allows them to be combined with different degrees of anthropogenic interference with the climate system (measured in terms of

  12. Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report; Scenarios sous contrainte carbone. Rapport complet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-05-15

    This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO{sub 2} at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries

  13. Energy System Expectations for Nuclear in the 21. Century: A Plausible Range

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look like in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2000). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios. However, they do not present the underlying energy system structures in enough detail for specific energy technology and infrastructure analyses. This paper therefore describes initial steps within INPRO (The International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles of the International Atomic Energy Agency) to translate the SRES results into a range of possible nuclear energy technology requirements for mid-century. The paper summarizes the four SRES scenarios that will be used in INPRO and the reasons for their selection. It provides illustrative examples of the sort of additional detail that is being developed about the overall energy system implied by each scenario, and about specific scenario features particularly relevant to nuclear energy. As recommended in SRES, the selected scenarios cover all four SRES 'story-line families'. The energy system translations being developed in INPRO are intended to indicate how energy services may be provided in mid-century and to delineate likely technology and infrastructure implications. They will indicate answers to questions like the following. The list is illustrative, not comprehensive. - What kind of nuclear power plants will best fit the mid-century energy system? - What energy forms and other products and services provided by nuclear reactors will best fit the mid-century energy system? - What would be their market shares? - How difficult will it be to site new nuclear

  14. On the potential for alternative greenhouse gas equivalence metrics to influence sectoral mitigation patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brennan, Mark E.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.

    2013-03-01

    Equivalence metrics used to quantify the relative climate impacts of different atmospheric forcers serve an essential function in policy and economic discussions about global climate change. The 100-year global warming potential (GWP-100), the most established greenhouse gas (GHG) equivalence metric, is used within the Kyoto Protocol, and in most emissions inventory, trading and offset mechanisms, to assign the mitigation value of non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases relative to carbon dioxide. In recent literature the GWP-100 and alternative metrics have been used to compare various anthropogenic climate forcers with respect to a wide range of environmental and economic goals. Building on this work, we examine how 16 different static and time-varying CO2-equivalence schemes might influence GHG mitigation across sectors and gases in a perfect and fluid global mitigation regime. This mitigation regime is guided by achieving a global mean radiative forcing (RF) of 5.7 Wm-2 in 2100 from 1765 levels through a mitigation policy of prescribed emissions reductions in each decade. It was found that static metrics defined on 20- instead of 100-year time horizons favor mitigation strategies that maximize the abatement of short-lived gases (e.g. methane), on average resulting in an RF from methane in 2100 of 0.5 Wm-2 instead of 1.1 Wm-2 from 100-year metrics. Similarly, metrics that consider integrated rather than end-point climate impacts imply mitigation strategies that maximize mitigation of shorter-lived GHGs, resulting in higher abatement of agriculture and waste emissions. Comparing extreme scenarios, these mitigation shifts across gases and sectors result in a nearly 30% difference in the representation of methane in global cumulative emissions reductions. This shift across gases and sectors to mitigate shorter-lived GHGs, in lieu of longer-lived GHGs like carbon dioxide, has implications for the long-term warming commitment due to 21st century emissions.

  15. Emission scenarios in the face of fossil-fuel peaking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. We propose in this paper that it is useful to look at a qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, to gain a sense of carbon emission bounds. Here we look at what may be considered a lower bound for 21st century emissions given two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by 'peak oil' adherents, and second, that no climate mitigation policies are put in place to limit emissions. If resources, and more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are more limited than posited in full energy-system models, a supply-driven emissions scenario results; however, we show that even in this 'peak fossil-fuel' limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2 C climate protection guardrails. Some indicators are presented that the scenario presented here should not be disregarded, and comparisons are made to the outputs of emission scenarios used for the IPCC reports. (author)

  16. Mitigation of hurricane potential intensity by the Montreal Protocol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camargo, S. J.; Polvani, L. M.; Garcia, R. R.

    2014-12-01

    In the last decade, it has become apparent that the regulation ofozone depleting substances (ODS) by the Montreal Protocol has hadprofound impacts on the climate system, affecting not only surfacetemperatures but also the atmospheric circulation and the entirehydrological cycle. In this study we demonstrate that he MontrealProtocol will also be very effective in mitigating the potentialintensity (PI) of hurricanes in the coming half century. We accomplish this by comparing the projections of a standard CMIP5RCP4.5 scenario to those of the so-called "World Avoided" scenario, inwhich ODS grow unabated in the absence of regulations. For thiscomparison, we use ouput from two 3-member ensembles of WholeAtmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), integrated between 2005and 2065. WACCM is the most comprehensive member of the CommunityEarth System Models (CESM), and includes interactive stratosphericchemistry, in addition to coupled land, ocean, and sea-ice components, In the World Avoided projections we find that the hurricane PI issubstantially larger that in the standard RCP4.5 case. Specifically,over the decade 2056-2065, the increase in PI is comparable to the onebetween RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the entire multi-model mean of the CMIP5models. Similar to what is projected by the CMIP5 models forincreasing CO2, in the World Avoided scenario the increase in hurricanPI is due to a combined increase in sea surface temperature and CAPE,and a decrease in the temperature in upper levels, near 70hPa. Our WACCM simulations indicate that the mitigating effect of theMontreal Protocol is highly significant: without ODSs regulations thePI would be twice as large as currently projected by the middle ofthis century.

  17. N2O emissions from the global agricultural nitrogen cycle – current state and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lotze-Campen

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Reactive nitrogen (Nr is not only an important nutrient for plant growth, thereby safeguarding human alimentation, but it also heavily disturbs natural systems. To mitigate air, land, aquatic, and atmospheric pollution caused by the excessive availability of Nr, it is crucial to understand the long-term development of the global agricultural Nr cycle. For our analysis, we combine a material flow model with a land-use optimization model. In a first step we estimate the state of the Nr cycle in 1995. In a second step we create four scenarios for the 21st century in line with the SRES storylines. Our results indicate that in 1995 only half of the Nr applied to croplands was incorporated into plant biomass. Moreover, less than 10 per cent of all Nr in cropland plant biomass and grazed pasture was consumed by humans. In our scenarios a strong surge of the Nr cycle occurs in the first half of the 21st century, even in the environmentally oriented scenarios. Nitrous oxide (N2O emissions rise from 3 Tg N2O-N in 1995 to 7–9 in 2045 and 5–12 Tg in 2095. Reinforced Nr pollution mitigation efforts are therefore required.

  18. Current state and future scenarios of the global agricultural nitrogen cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. L. Bodirsky

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Reactive nitrogen (Nr is not only an important nutrient for plant growth, thereby safeguarding human alimentation, but it also heavily disturbs natural systems. To mitigate air, land, aquatic, and atmospheric pollution caused by the excessive availability of Nr, it is crucial to understand the long term development of the global agricultural Nr cycle.

    For our analysis, we combine a material flow model with a land-use-optimization model. In a first step we estimate the state of the Nr cycle in 1995. In a second step we create four scenarios for the 21st century in line with the SRES storylines.

    Our results indicate that in 1995 only half of the Nr applied to croplands was incorporated into cropland biomass. Moreover, less than 10 per cent of all Nr in cropland biomass and grazed pasture was consumed by humans. In our scenarios a strong surge of the Nr cycle occurs in the first half of the 21st century, even in the environmentally oriented scenarios. Nitrous oxide (N2O emissions rise from 3 Tg N2O-N in 1995 to 7–9 in 2045 and 5–15 Tg in 2095. Reinforced Nr pollution mitigation efforts are therefore required.

  19. Delayed detection of climate mitigation benefits due to climate inertia and variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tebaldi, Claudia; Friedlingstein, Pierre

    2013-10-22

    Climate change mitigation acts by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and thus curbing, or even reversing, the increase in their atmospheric concentration. This reduces the associated anthropogenic radiative forcing, and hence the size of the warming. Because of the inertia and internal variability affecting the climate system and the global carbon cycle, it is unlikely that a reduction in warming would be immediately discernible. Here we use 21st century simulations from the latest ensemble of Earth System Model experiments to investigate and quantify when mitigation becomes clearly discernible. We use one of the scenarios as a reference for a strong mitigation strategy, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and compare its outcome with either RCP4.5 or RCP8.5, both of which are less severe mitigation pathways. We analyze global mean atmospheric CO2, and changes in annually and seasonally averaged surface temperature at global and regional scales. For global mean surface temperature, the median detection time of mitigation is about 25-30 y after RCP2.6 emissions depart from the higher emission trajectories. This translates into detection of a mitigation signal by 2035 or 2045, depending on whether the comparison is with RCP8.5 or RCP4.5, respectively. The detection of climate benefits of emission mitigation occurs later at regional scales, with a median detection time between 30 and 45 y after emission paths separate. Requiring a 95% confidence level induces a delay of several decades, bringing detection time toward the end of the 21st century. PMID:24101485

  20. Scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, L.; Braat, L.C.; Lei, G.; Arets, E.J.M.M.; Liu, J.; Jiang, L.; Fan, Z.; Liu, W.; He, H.; Sun, X.

    2014-01-01

    This chapter presents the results of the scenario analysis of China’s ecosystems focusing on forest, grassland, and wetland ecosystems. The analysis was undertaken using Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects (CLUE) modeling and an ecosystem service matrix (as explained below) complemented by

  1. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts to...

  2. Changes of Atmospheric Water Balance over China under the IPCC SRES A1B Scenario Based on RegCM3 Simulations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Bo; JIANG Da-Bang

    2012-01-01

    Simulations of the Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario were employed to investigate possible decadal changes and long-term trends of annual mean atmospheric water balance components over China in the 21st century with reference to the period of 1981-2000. An evaluation showed that RegCM3 can reasonably reproduce annual evapotranspiration, precipitation, and water vapor transport over China, with a better performance for March–June. It was found that the water vapor exchange between the land surface and atmosphere would be significantly intensified in Northwest China by the mid-to late-21st century and that the region would possibly shift to a wetter or drought-mitigated state under global warming. Conversely, the water vapor exchange evidently weakened over the Tibetan Plateau and South-west China by the mid-to late-21st century. In addition, there appears to be a drier state for Northeast China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley by the mid-to late-21st century, with slight mitigation by the end compared with the mid-21st century. The westerly and southwesterly water vapor transport over China generally presents an increasing trend, with increasing diver-gence over the Tibetan Plateau and Northeast China, corresponding to a loss of atmospheric water vapor by water vapor transport.

  3. Climate change mitigation and electrification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An increasing number of mitigation scenarios with deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions have focused on expanded use of demand-side electric technologies, including battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, and heat pumps. Here we review such “electricity scenarios” to explore commonalities and differences. Newer scenarios are produced by various interests, ranging from environmental organizations to industry to an international organization, and represent a variety of carbon-free power generation technologies on the supply side. The reviewed studies reveal that the electrification rate, defined here as the ratio of electricity to final energy demand, rises in baseline scenarios, and that its increase is accelerated under climate policy. The prospect of electrification differs from sector to sector, and is the most robust for the buildings sector. The degree of transport electrification differs among studies because of different treatment and assumptions about technology. Industry does not show an appreciable change in the electrification rate. Relative to a baseline scenario, an increase in the electrification rate often implies an increase in electricity demand but does not guarantee it. - Highlights: ► Until recently few mitigation scenarios paid attention to electrification. ► Recent scenarios show an increasing focus on demand-side electric technologies. ► They are represented by various interests. ► Level of electrification increases with stringency of climate policy. ► Prospect of electrification differs across sectors.

  4. Strengthening of the hydrological cycle in future scenarios: atmospheric energy and water balance perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Alessandri

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Future climate scenarios experiencing global warming are expected to strengthen the hydrological cycle during the 21st century (21C. We analyze the strengthening of the global-scale increase in precipitation from the perspective of changes in whole atmospheric water and energy balances. By combining energy and water equations for the whole atmosphere, we obtain constraints for the changes in surface fluxes and partitioning at the surface between sensible and latent components. We investigate the differences in the strengthening of the hydrological cycle in two centennial simulations performed with an Earth system model forced with specified atmospheric concentration pathways. Alongside the Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES A1B, which is a medium-high non-mitigation scenario, we consider a new aggressive-mitigation scenario (E1 with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K.

    Our results show that the mitigation scenario effectively constrains the global warming with a stabilization below 2 K with respect to the 1950–2000 historical period. On the other hand, the E1 precipitation does not follow the temperature field toward a stabilization path but continues to increase over the mitigation period. Quite unexpectedly, the mitigation scenario is shown to strengthen the hydrological cycle even more than SRES A1B till around 2070. We show that this is mostly a consequence of the larger increase in the negative radiative imbalance of atmosphere in E1 compared to A1B. This appears to be primarily related to decreased sulfate aerosol concentration in E1, which considerably reduces atmospheric absorption of solar radiation compared to A1B.

    The last decades of the 21C show a marked increase in global precipitation in A1B compared to E1, despite the fact that the two scenarios display almost the same overall increase of radiative imbalance with respect to the 20th century. Our

  5. Japan’s Long-term Energy Demand and Supply Scenario to 2050 – Estimation for the Potential of Massive CO2 Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Ryoichi Komiyama; Chris Marnay; Michael Stadler; Judy Lai; Sam Borgeson; Brian Coffey; Inês Lima Azevedo

    2009-01-01

    In this analysis, we projected Japans energy demand/supply and energy-related CO2 emissions to 2050. Our analysis of various scenarios indicated that Japans CO2 emissions in 2050 could be potentially reduced by 26-58% from the current level (FY 2005) (Figure 1). These results suggest that Japan could set a CO2 emission reduction target for 2050 at between 30% and 60%. In order to reduce CO2 emissions by 60% in 2050 from the present level, Japan will have to strongly promote energy conservatio...

  6. Climate change mitigation policies and poverty in developing countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussein, Zekarias; Hertel, Thomas; Golub, Alla

    2013-09-01

    Mitigation of the potential impacts of climate change is one of the leading policy concerns of the 21st century. However, there continues to be heated debate about the nature, the content and, most importantly, the impact of the policy actions needed to limit greenhouse gas emissions. One contributing factor is the lack of systematic evidence on the impact of mitigation policy on the welfare of the poor in developing countries. In this letter we consider two alternative policy scenarios, one in which only the Annex I countries take action, and the second in which the first policy is accompanied by a forest carbon sequestration policy in the non-Annex regions. Using an economic climate policy analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of the above policy scenarios on seven socio-economic groups in 14 developing countries. We find that the Annex-I-only policy is poverty friendly, since it enhances the competitiveness of non-Annex countries—particularly in agricultural production. However, once forest carbon sequestration incentives in the non-Annex regions are added to the policy package, the overall effect is to raise poverty in the majority of our sample countries. The reason for this outcome is that the dominant impacts of this policy are to raise returns to land, reduce agricultural output and raise food prices. Since poor households rely primarily on their own labor for income, and generally own little land, and since they also spend a large share of their income on food, they are generally hurt on both the earning and the spending fronts. This result is troubling, since forest carbon sequestration—particularly through avoided deforestation—is a promising, low cost option for climate change mitigation.

  7. Climate change mitigation policies and poverty in developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitigation of the potential impacts of climate change is one of the leading policy concerns of the 21st century. However, there continues to be heated debate about the nature, the content and, most importantly, the impact of the policy actions needed to limit greenhouse gas emissions. One contributing factor is the lack of systematic evidence on the impact of mitigation policy on the welfare of the poor in developing countries. In this letter we consider two alternative policy scenarios, one in which only the Annex I countries take action, and the second in which the first policy is accompanied by a forest carbon sequestration policy in the non-Annex regions. Using an economic climate policy analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of the above policy scenarios on seven socio-economic groups in 14 developing countries. We find that the Annex-I-only policy is poverty friendly, since it enhances the competitiveness of non-Annex countries—particularly in agricultural production. However, once forest carbon sequestration incentives in the non-Annex regions are added to the policy package, the overall effect is to raise poverty in the majority of our sample countries. The reason for this outcome is that the dominant impacts of this policy are to raise returns to land, reduce agricultural output and raise food prices. Since poor households rely primarily on their own labor for income, and generally own little land, and since they also spend a large share of their income on food, they are generally hurt on both the earning and the spending fronts. This result is troubling, since forest carbon sequestration—particularly through avoided deforestation—is a promising, low cost option for climate change mitigation. (letter)

  8. Evaluating the Contribution of Soil Carbon to Global Climate Change Mitigation in an Integrated Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Clarke, L. E.

    2006-12-01

    Assessing the contribution of terrestrial carbon sequestration to national and international climate change mitigation requires integration across scientific and disciplinary boundaries. In a study for the US Climate Change Technology Program, site based measurements and geographic data were used to develop a three- pool, first-order kinetic model of global agricultural soil carbon (C) stock changes over 14 continental scale regions. This model was then used together with land use scenarios from the MiniCAM integrated assessment model in a global analysis of climate change mitigation options. MiniCAM evaluated mitigation strategies within a set of policy environments aimed at achieving atmospheric CO2 stabilization by 2100 under a suite of technology and development scenarios. Adoption of terrestrial sequestration practices is based on competition for land and economic markets for carbon. In the reference case with no climate policy, conversion of agricultural land from conventional cultivation to no tillage over the next century in the United States results in C sequestration of 7.6 to 59.8 Tg C yr-1, which doubles to 19.0 to 143.4 Tg C yr-1 under the most aggressive climate policy. Globally, with no carbon policy, agricultural C sequestration rates range from 75.2 to 18.2 Tg C yr-1 over the century, with the highest rates occurring in the first fifty years. Under the most aggressive global climate change policy, sequestration in agricultural soils reaches up to 190 Tg C yr-1 in the first 15 years. The contribution of agricultural soil C sequestration is a small fraction of the total global carbon offsets necessary to reach the stabilization targets (9 to 20 Gt C yr-1) by the end of the century. This integrated assessment provides decision makers with science-based estimates of the potential magnitude of terrestrial C sequestration relative to other greenhouse gas mitigation strategies in all sectors of the global economy. It also provides insight into the

  9. Indian methane and nitrous oxide emissions and mitigation flexibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garg, Amit; Shukla, P. R.; Kapshe, Manmohan; Menon, Deepa

    Methane (CH 4) and nitrous oxide (N 2O) contributed 27% and 7%, respectively, to India's CO 2 equivalent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2000, the remaining being the carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions. Presently, agriculture and livestock related emissions contribute above 65% of Indian CH 4 emissions and above 90% of N 2O emissions. Since these activities are widely dispersed, with a considerable portion being sub-sustenance activities, emission mitigation requires considerable efforts. We use geographical information system (GIS) interfaced Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM/Enduse), which employs technology share projections, for estimating future CH 4 and N 2O emissions. The future emissions and mitigation flexibility are analyzed for a reference scenario and two mitigation scenarios (medium and strong). Future CH 4 emissions in 2030 are projected to reach 24.4 Tg (reference scenario), 21.3 Tg (medium mitigation scenario) and 17.6 Tg (strong mitigation scenario). Future CH 4 emission scenarios indicate rising shares of municipal solid waste (MSW) and coal bed methane, where mitigation technologies have good penetration potential. Improved cattle feed and digesters, and better rice paddy cultivation practices that are adopted for higher yields and improved irrigation coverage also offer CH 4 mitigation as ancillary benefits. Future N 2O emissions in 2030 are projected to reach 0.81 Tg (reference scenario), 0.69 Tg (medium mitigation scenario) and 0.6 Tg (strong mitigation scenario). Better utilization of nitrogen fertilizer and increased use of organic fertilizers, partly produced from MSW, offer interesting mitigation opportunities for N 2O emissions. Some of these technology initiatives are already visible in India at different stages of development and appropriate policy thrust may strengthen them in future.

  10. Asia's role in mitigating climate change: A technology and sector specific analysis with ReMIND-R

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We use the ReMIND-R model to analyze the role of Asia in the context of a global effort to mitigate climate change. We introduce a novel method of secondary energy based mitigation shares, which allows us to quantify the economic mitigation potential of technologies in different regions and final energy carriers. The 2005 share of Asia in global CO2 emissions amounts to 38%, and is projected to grow to 53% under business-as-usual until the end of the century. Asia also holds a large fraction of the global mitigation potential. A broad portfolio of technologies is deployed in the climate policy scenarios. We find that biomass in combination with CCS, other renewables, and end-use efficiency each make up a large fraction of the global mitigation potential, followed by nuclear and fossil CCS. We find considerable differences in decarbonization patterns across the final energy types electricity, heat and transport fuels. Regional differences in technology use are a function of differences in resource endowments, and structural differences in energy end use. Under climate policy, a substantial mitigation potential of non-biomass renewables emerges for China and other developing countries of Asia (OAS). Asia also accounts for the dominant share of the global mitigation potential of nuclear energy. In view of the substantial near term investments into new energy infrastructure in China and India, early adoption of climate policy prevents lock-in into carbon intensive infrastructure and thus leads to a much higher long-term mitigation potential. - Highlights: ► We develop a novel methodology for the attribution of emission reductions to technologies. ► Asia accounts for a substantial and increasing share of global CO2 emissions. ► A broad portfolio of technologies contributes to emission reductions. ► Early action increases the long term mitigation potential of China and India.

  11. Climate change under aggressive mitigation: the ENSEMBLES multi-model experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johns, T.C.; Hewitt, C.D. [Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Royer, J.F.; Salas y. Melia, D. [Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques-Groupe d' Etude de l' Atmosphere Meteorologique (CNRM-GAME Meteo-France CNRS), Toulouse (France); Hoeschel, I.; Koerper, J. [Freie Universitaet Berlin, Institute for Meteorology, Berlin (Germany); Huebener, H. [Hessian Agency for the Environment and Geology, Wiesbaden (Germany); Roeckner, E.; Giorgetta, M.A. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Manzini, E. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); May, W.; Yang, S. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Danish Climate Centre, Copenhagen (Denmark); Dufresne, J.L. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD/IPSL), UMR 8539 CNRS, ENS, UPMC, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Otteraa, O.H. [Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Uni. Bjerknes Centre, Bergen (Norway); Vuuren, D.P. van [Utrecht University, Utrecht (Netherlands); Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL), Bilthoven (Netherlands); Denvil, S. [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), FR 636 CNRS, UVSQ, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Fogli, P.G. [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Tjiputra, J.F. [University of Bergen, Department of Geophysics, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Stehfest, E. [Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL), Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    2011-11-15

    We present results from multiple comprehensive models used to simulate an aggressive mitigation scenario based on detailed results of an Integrated Assessment Model. The experiment employs ten global climate and Earth System models (GCMs and ESMs) and pioneers elements of the long-term experimental design for the forthcoming 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment. Atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentrations pathways rather than carbon emissions are specified in all models, including five ESMs that contain interactive carbon cycles. Specified forcings also include minor greenhouse gas concentration pathways, ozone concentration, aerosols (via concentrations or precursor emissions) and land use change (in five models). The new aggressive mitigation scenario (E1), constructed using an integrated assessment model (IMAGE 2.4) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K, is studied alongside the medium-high non-mitigation scenario SRES A1B. Resulting twenty-first century global mean warming and precipitation changes for A1B are broadly consistent with previous studies. In E1 twenty-first century global warming remains below 2 K in most models, but global mean precipitation changes are higher than in A1B up to 2065 and consistently higher per degree of warming. The spread in global temperature and precipitation responses is partly attributable to inter-model variations in aerosol loading and representations of aerosol-related radiative forcing effects. Our study illustrates that the benefits of mitigation will not be realised in temperature terms until several decades after emissions reductions begin, and may vary considerably between regions. A subset of the models containing integrated carbon cycles agree that land and ocean sinks remove roughly half of present day anthropogenic carbon emissions from the atmosphere, and that anthropogenic carbon emissions must decrease by at least 50% by 2050 relative

  12. Tropical peatland carbon dynamics simulated for scenarios of disturbance and restoration and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frolking, S. E.; Warren, M.; Dai, Z.; Kurnianto, S.; Hagen, S. C.

    2015-12-01

    Tropical peatlands contain a globally significant carbon pool. Southeast Asian peatlands are being deforested, drained and burned at very high rates, mostly for conversion to industrial oil palm or pulp and paper plantations. The climate mitigation potential of tropical peatlands has gained increasing attention in recent years as persistent greenhouse gas emissions can be avoided or decreased if peatlands remain intact or are rehabilitated. In addition, peatland conservation or rehabilitation for climate mitigation also includes multiple co-benefits such as maintenance of ecosystem services, biodiversity, and air quality from reduced fire occurrence. Inventory guidelines and methodologies have only recently become available, and are based on few data from a limited number of sites. Few heuristic tools are available to evaluate the impact of management practices on carbon dynamics in tropical peatlands, and the potential climate mitigation benefits of peatland restoration. We used a process based dynamic tropical peatland model to explore the C dynamics of several peatland management trajectories represented by hypothetical scenarios, within the context of simulated 21st century climate change. All scenarios with land use, including those with optimal restoration, simulate C loss over the 21st century, with C losses ranging from 10% to essentially 100% of pre-disturbance values. Fire, either prescribed as part of a crop rotation cycle, or stochastic occurrences in sub-optimally managed degraded land can be the dominant C-loss pathway, particularly in the drier climate scenario we tested. A single 25-year oil palm rotation, with a prescribed initial burn, lost 40-50 kg C/m2, equivalent to accumulation during the previous 500 years, 10-30% of which was restored in 75 years of optimal restoration. Our results indicate that even under the most optimistic scenario of hydrological and forest restoration and the wettest climate regime, only about one-third of the carbon

  13. The role of renewable energy in climate stabilization: results from the EMF27 scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Luderer, Gunnar; Krey, Volker; Calvin, Katherine; Merrick, James; Mima, Silvana; Pietzcker, Robert; Van Vliet, Jasper; Wada, Kenichi

    2013-01-01

    This paper uses the EMF27 scenarios to explore the role of renewable energy (RE) in climate change mitigation. Currently RE supplies almost 20 % of global electricity demand. Almost all EMF27 mitigation scenarios show a strong increase in renewable power production, with a substantial ramp-up of wind and solar power deployment. In many scenarios, renewables are the most important long-term mitigation option for power supply. Wind energy is competitive even without climate policy, whereas the ...

  14. Hydrological projections of climate change scenarios in the Lena and the Mackenzie basins: modeling and uncertainty issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelfan, Alexander; Gustafsson, David; Motovilov, Yury; Arheimer, Berit; Kalugin, Andrei; Krylenko, Inna; Lavrenov, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    The ECOMAG and the HYPE regional hydrological models were setup to assess possible impacts of climate change on the hydrological regime of two pan-Arctic great drainage basins: the Lena and the Mackenzie rivers. We firstly assessed the reliability of the hydrological models to reproduce the historical streamflow series and analyse the hydrological projections from the climate change scenarios. The impacts were assessed in three 30-year periods: early- (2006-2035), mid- (2036-2065) and end-century (2070-2099) using an ensemble of five GCMs and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. Results show, particularly, that the basins react with multi-year delay to changes in the RCP2.6 mitigation (peak-and-decline) scenario, and consequently to the potential mitigation measures. Then we assessed the hydrological projections' uncertainty, which is caused by the GCM's and RCP's variabilities, and indicated that the uncertainty rises with the time horizon of the projection and, generally, the uncertainty interval is wider for Mackenzie than for Lena. We finally compare the potential future hydrological impacts predicted based on the GCM-scenario ensemble approach and the delta-change transformation method of the historical observations. We found that the latter method can produce useful information about the climate change impact in the great Arctic rivers, at least for the nearest decades.

  15. Mitigation of global warming through renewable biomass

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rising level of atmospheric CO2 and consequent global warming is evident. Global surface temperature have already increased by 0.8 °C over the 20th century and is projected to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C during the twenty-first century. The global warming will continue till atmospheric concentrations of the major greenhouse gases are stabilized. Among them, CO2 is mainly responsible and is expected to account for about 60% of the warming over the next century. This study reviews advances on causes and consequences of global climate change and its impact on nature and society. Renewable biomass has tremendous potential to mitigate the global warming. Renewable biomass is expected to play a multifunctional role including food production, source of energy and fodder, biodiversity conservation, yield of goods and services to the society as well as mitigation of the impact of climate change. The review highlights the different management and research strategies in forestry, agriculture, agroforestry and grasslands to mitigate the global warming. -- Highlights: ► Rising level of atmospheric CO2 and consequent global warming is evident. ► CO2 is mainly responsible for global warming. ► Global temperature is predicted to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C during 21st century. ► Renewable biomass has great potential to mitigate the global warming

  16. Evolution of spatio-temporal drought characteristics: validation, projections and effect of adaptation scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-P. Vidal

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Drought events develop in both space and time and they are therefore best described through summary joint spatio-temporal characteristics, like mean duration, mean affected area and total magnitude. This paper addresses the issue of future projections of such characteristics of drought events over France through three main research questions: (1 are downscaled climate projections able to reproduce spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural droughts in France over a present-day period? (2 How such characteristics will evolve over the 21st century? (3 How to use standardized drought indices to represent theoretical adaptation scenarios? These questions are addressed using the Isba land surface model, downscaled climate projections from the ARPEGE General Circulation Model under three emissions scenarios, as well as results from a previously performed 50-yr multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France. Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural drought events are computed using the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Soil Wetness Index, respectively, and for time scales of 3 and 12 months. Results first show that the distributions of joint spatio-temporal characteristics of observed events are well reproduced by the downscaled hydroclimate projections over a present-day period. All spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events are then found to dramatically increase over the 21st century, with stronger changes for agricultural droughts. Two theoretical adaptation scenarios are eventually built based on hypotheses of adaptation to evolving climate and hydrological normals, either retrospective or prospective, and by taking advantage of the statistical properties of the standardized drought indices. The perceived spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events derived from these theoretical adaptation scenarios show much reduced changes, but they call for more

  17. Evolution of spatio-temporal drought characteristics: validation, projections and effect of adaptation scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-P. Vidal

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Drought events develop in both space and time and they are therefore best described through summary joint spatio-temporal characteristics, such as mean duration, mean affected area and total magnitude. This paper addresses the issue of future projections of such characteristics of drought events over France through three main research questions: (1 Are downscaled climate projections able to simulate spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural droughts in France over a present-day period? (2 How such characteristics will evolve over the 21st century? (3 How to use standardized drought indices to represent theoretical adaptation scenarios? These questions are addressed using the Isba land surface model, downscaled climate projections from the ARPEGE General Circulation Model under three emissions scenarios, as well as results from a previously performed 50-yr multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France. Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural drought events are computed using the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Soil Wetness Index, respectively, and for time scales of 3 and 12 months. Results first show that the distributions of joint spatio-temporal characteristics of observed events are well simulated by the downscaled hydroclimate projections over a present-day period. All spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events are then found to dramatically increase over the 21st century, with stronger changes for agricultural droughts. Two theoretical adaptation scenarios are eventually built based on hypotheses of adaptation to evolving climate and hydrological normals, either retrospective or prospective. The perceived spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events derived from these theoretical adaptation scenarios show much reduced changes, but they call for more realistic scenarios at both the catchment and national scale in order to accurately assess the

  18. Quantifying the role of Northern Eurasia in global CO2, CH4, and water dynamics during the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Qianlai; Kicklighter, David; Cai, Yongxia; Tchebakova, Nadja; Melillo, Jerry; Reilly, John; Sokolov, Andrei; Sirin, Andrey

    2015-04-01

    The largest increase of surface air temperature and related climate extremes have occurred in Northern Eurasia in recent decades, and are projected to continue during the 21st century. The changing climate will affect biogeography, land cover and biogeochemical cycles in the region, which in turn, will affect how global land use evolves in the future as humans attempt to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Regional land-use changes, however, also depend on pressures imposed by the global economy and environmental changes. Feedbacks from future land-use change will further modify regional and global biogeochemistry and climate. This study uses a suite of linked biogeography, biogeochemical, economic, and climate models to explore how climate-induced vegetation shifts in Northern Eurasia will influence land-use change and carbon cycling across the globe during the 21st century. We find that, at the global scale, while more land will be allocated towards food and biofuel crops due to increasing population and associated economic development, the climate-induced vegetation shifts in Northern Eurasia also significantly affect global land use and result in a global cumulative carbon sink of about 63 Pg C under the policy scenario that limits CO2-equivelent greenhouse gas concentrations to 480 ppmv by the end of the 21st century. In comparison with the policy scenario, under a no-policy scenario where CO2-equivelent greenhouse gas concentrations reach 870 ppmv by the end of 21st century, the global cumulative carbon sink is 11 Pg C less mainly due to carbon lost from global grasslands. Cumulative evapotranspiration from global terrestrial ecosystems considering global land-use changes with vegetation shifts in northern Eurasia is 8.05 and 8.35 million km3 for the policy and no-policy scenarios, respectively. In the presentation, we will also discuss our analysis on CH4 emissions from northern Eurasia in response to the changes of land cover and climate during this

  19. Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

  20. The analysis of historical earthquakes of the North Anatolian Fault in the Marmara Region, Turkey for the last 15 centuries based on intensity and continuous Coulomb scenarios: Implications for the fault geometry and the interaction of individual earthqua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaltırak, Cenk; Şahin, Murat

    2016-04-01

    In this study we evaluated the historical earthquakes of the Marmara Region totally in three-stages. In first stage, historical earthquakes were compiled from the available catalogues and classified according to their spatial distribution, whereas only the ones, related with the active northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) were selected. Then, the next phase of classification was made to relate historical data to the ancient and historical settlements, for which a kind of shake map was produced for each event. In the second stage, three different fault models, suggested for the geometry of the NAF in the Marmara Region, were integrated into a GIS database. Mw magnitudes were calculated for each fault segment by using lengths, seismogenic depths, and slip-rates of fault segments. In the third stage, the revised digital geological map of the Marmara Region were compiled based on 1:500k conventional maps and were used to estimate the Vs30 distribution within a grid of 750x750 m. Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) maps were produced for each earthquake scenario, depending on the geometry of different fault models, calculated model magnitudes and intensity distributions. Moreover, we tested the surface ruptures of each earthquake scenarios by using the Coulomb stress change model for historical data covering a time era between AD 478 and 2016 in assumption with a constant horizontal slip rate of 19 mma-1 for all fault segments. As conclusion, the horsetail-fault geometry (Yaltırak, 2002) among all 3 fault models yielded the best fit to the distribution of intensities and coulomb models.

  1. Einstein's Century

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jeremy Laurance; 贾庆文

    2005-01-01

    Albert Einstein began working at the patent office in Bern, Switzerland, a little more than a century ago. He had flunked the entrance exam for the Swiss Federal Insitute of Technology and took the job evaluating inventions because it paid a regular salary.

  2. Hydrological scenarios for two selected Alpine catchments for the 21st century using a stochastic weather generator and enhanced process understanding for modelling of seasonal snow and glacier melt for improved water resources management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strasser, Ulrich; Schneeberger, Klaus; Dabhi, Hetal; Dubrovsky, Martin; Hanzer, Florian; Marke, Thomas; Oberguggenberger, Michael; Rössler, Ole; Schmieder, Jan; Rotach, Mathias; Stötter, Johann; Weingartner, Rolf

    2016-04-01

    The overall objective of HydroGeM³ is to quantify and assess both water demand and water supply in two coupled human-environment mountain systems, i.e. Lütschine in Switzerland and Ötztaler Ache in Austria. Special emphasis is laid on the analysis of possible future seasonal water scarcity. The hydrological response of high Alpine catchments is characterised by a strong seasonal variability with low runoff in winter and high runoff in spring and summer. Climate change is expected to cause a seasonal shift of the runoff regime and thus it has significant impact on both amount and timing of the release of the available water resources, and thereof, possible future water conflicts. In order to identify and quantify the contribution of snow and ice melt as well as rain to runoff, streamflow composition will be analysed with natural tracers. The results of the field investigations will help to improve the snow and ice melt and runoff modules of two selected hydrological models (i.e. AMUNDSEN and WaSiM) which are used to investigate the seasonal water availability under current and future climate conditions. Together, they comprise improved descriptions of boundary layer and surface melt processes (AMUNDSEN), and of streamflow runoff generation (WaSiM). Future meteorological forcing for the modelling until the end of the century will be provided by both a stochastic multi-site weather generator, and downscaled climate model output. Both approches will use EUROCORDEX data as input. The water demand in the selected study areas is quantified for the relevant societal sectors, e.g. agriculture, hydropower generation and (winter) tourism. The comparison of water availability and water demand under current and future climate conditions will allow the identification of possible seasonal bottlenecks of future water supply and resulting conflicts. Thus these investigations can provide a quantitative basis for the development of strategies for sustainable water management in

  3. The USGS Earthquake Scenario Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wald, D. J.; Petersen, M. D.; Wald, L. A.; Frankel, A. D.; Quitoriano, V. R.; Lin, K.; Luco, N.; Mathias, S.; Bausch, D.

    2009-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) is producing a comprehensive suite of earthquake scenarios for planning, mitigation, loss estimation, and scientific investigations. The Earthquake Scenario Project (ESP), though lacking clairvoyance, is a forward-looking project, estimating earthquake hazard and loss outcomes as they may occur one day. For each scenario event, fundamental input includes i) the magnitude and specified fault mechanism and dimensions, ii) regional Vs30 shear velocity values for site amplification, and iii) event metadata. A grid of standard ShakeMap ground motion parameters (PGA, PGV, and three spectral response periods) is then produced using the well-defined, regionally-specific approach developed by the USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NHSMP), including recent advances in empirical ground motion predictions (e.g., the NGA relations). The framework also allows for numerical (3D) ground motion computations for specific, detailed scenario analyses. Unlike NSHMP ground motions, for ESP scenarios, local rock and soil site conditions and commensurate shaking amplifications are applied based on detailed Vs30 maps where available or based on topographic slope as a proxy. The scenario event set is comprised primarily by selection from the NSHMP events, though custom events are also allowed based on coordination of the ESP team with regional coordinators, seismic hazard experts, seismic network operators, and response coordinators. The event set will be harmonized with existing and future scenario earthquake events produced regionally or by other researchers. The event list includes approximate 200 earthquakes in CA, 100 in NV, dozens in each of NM, UT, WY, and a smaller number in other regions. Systematic output will include all standard ShakeMap products, including HAZUS input, GIS, KML, and XML files used for visualization, loss estimation, ShakeCast, PAGER, and for other systems. All products will be

  4. Land Use Scenario Modeling for Flood Risk Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    2010-01-01

    It is generally accepted that flood risk has been increasing in Europe in the last decades. Accordingly it becomes a priority to better understand its drivers and mechanisms. Flood risk is evaluated on the basis of three factors: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. If one of these factors increases, then so does risk. Urban expansion and associated land use dynamics are recognised as one of the main causes of increased flood risk in Europe. Land use change models used for ex-ante assessment o...

  5. Mitigation : Closed Basin Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The upcoming meeting on waterfowl mitigation for the Closed Basin Project will have several people talk about possible changes to the waterfowl mitigation program....

  6. The changing nutrition scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Gopalan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ′Green Revolution fatigue′. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  7. The changing nutrition scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalan, C

    2013-09-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and 'Green Revolution fatigue'. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large. PMID:24135189

  8. century drying

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdon, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Coats, Sloan

    2014-11-01

    Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the twenty-first century, but the relative contributions from changes in moisture supply (precipitation) versus evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET) have not been comprehensively assessed. Using output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, projected twenty-first century drying and wetting trends are investigated using two offline indices of surface moisture balance: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). PDSI and SPEI projections using precipitation and Penman-Monteith based PET changes from the GCMs generally agree, showing robust cross-model drying in western North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and the Amazon and robust wetting occurring in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and east Africa (PDSI only). The SPEI is more sensitive to PET changes than the PDSI, especially in arid regions such as the Sahara and Middle East. Regional drying and wetting patterns largely mirror the spatially heterogeneous response of precipitation in the models, although drying in the PDSI and SPEI calculations extends beyond the regions of reduced precipitation. This expansion of drying areas is attributed to globally widespread increases in PET, caused by increases in surface net radiation and the vapor pressure deficit. Increased PET not only intensifies drying in areas where precipitation is already reduced, it also drives areas into drought that would otherwise experience little drying or even wetting from precipitation trends alone. This PET amplification effect is largest in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, and is especially pronounced in western North America, Europe, and southeast China. Compared to PDSI projections using precipitation changes only, the projections incorporating both

  9. Projections of rapidly rising surface temperatures over Africa under low mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An analysis of observed trends in African annual-average near-surface temperatures over the last five decades reveals drastic increases, particularly over parts of the subtropics and central tropical Africa. Over these regions, temperatures have been rising at more than twice the global rate of temperature increase. An ensemble of high-resolution downscalings, obtained using a single regional climate model forced with the sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice fields of an ensemble of global circulation model (GCM) simulations, is shown to realistically represent the relatively strong temperature increases observed in subtropical southern and northern Africa. The amplitudes of warming are generally underestimated, however. Further warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with plausible increases of 4–6 °C over the subtropics and 3–5 °C over the tropics by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (a low mitigation) scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. High impact climate events such as heat-wave days and high fire-danger days are consistently projected to increase drastically in their frequency of occurrence. General decreases in soil-moisture availability are projected, even for regions where increases in rainfall are plausible, due to enhanced levels of evaporation. The regional dowscalings presented here, and recent GCM projections obtained for Africa, indicate that African annual-averaged temperatures may plausibly rise at about 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the subtropics, and at a somewhat lower rate in the tropics. These projected increases although drastic, may be conservative given the model underestimations of observed temperature trends. The relatively strong rate of warming over Africa, in combination with the associated increases in extreme temperature events, may be key factors to consider when interpreting the suitability of global mitigation targets in terms of

  10. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate con

  11. European atmosphere in 2050, a regional air quality and climate perspective under CMIP5 scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Colette

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available To quantify changes in air pollution over Europe at the 2050 horizon, we designed a comprehensive modelling system that captures the external factors considered to be most relevant, and that relies on up-to-date and consistent sets of air pollution and climate policy scenarios. Global and regional climate as well as global chemistry simulations are based on the recent representative concentration pathways (RCP produced for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change whereas regional air quality modelling is based on the updated emissions scenarios produced in the framework of the Global Energy Assessment. We explored two diverse scenarios: a reference scenario where climate policies are absent and a mitigation scenario which limits global temperature rise to within 2 °C by the end of this century. This first assessment of projected air quality and climate at the regional scale based on CMIP5 (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project climate simulations is in line with the existing literature using CMIP3. The discrepancy between air quality simulations obtained with a climate model or with meteorological reanalyses is pointed out. Sensitivity simulations show that the main factor driving future air quality projections is air pollutant emissions, rather than climate change or intercontinental transport of pollution. Whereas the well documented "climate penalty" that weights upon ozone (increase of ozone pollution with global warming over Europe is confirmed, other features appear less robust compared to the literature, such as the impact of climate on PM2.5. The quantitative disentangling of external factors shows that, while several published studies focused on the climate penalty bearing upon ozone, the contribution of the global ozone burden is somewhat overlooked in the literature.

  12. Regional-Scale Forcing and Feedbacks from Alternative Scenarios of Global-Scale Land Use Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, A. D.; Chini, L. P.; Collins, W.; Janetos, A. C.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Thomson, A. M.; Torn, M. S.

    2011-12-01

    Future patterns of land use change depend critically on the degree to which terrestrial carbon management strategies, such as biological carbon sequestration and biofuels, are utilized in order to mitigate global climate change. Furthermore, land use change associated with terrestrial carbon management induces biogeophysical changes to surface energy budgets that perturb climate at regional and possibly global scales, activating different feedback processes depending on the nature and location of the land use change. As a first step in a broader effort to create an integrated earth system model, we examine two scenarios of future anthropogenic activity generated by the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) within the full-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). Each scenario stabilizes radiative forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols at 4.5 W/m^2. In the first, stabilization is achieved through a universal carbon tax that values terrestrial carbon equally with fossil carbon, leading to modest afforestation globally and low biofuel utilization. In the second scenario, stabilization is achieved with a tax on fossil fuel and industrial carbon alone. In this case, biofuel utilization increases dramatically and crop area expands to claim approximately 50% of forest cover globally. By design, these scenarios exhibit identical climate forcing from atmospheric constituents. Thus, differences among them can be attributed to the biogeophysical effects of land use change. In addition, we utilize offline radiative transfer and offline land model simulations to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms operating in different regions. We find that boreal deforestation has a strong climatic signature due to significant albedo change coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Tropical deforestation, on the other hand, has more subtle effects on climate. Globally, the two scenarios yield warming trends over the 21st century that differ by 0.5 degrees Celsius. This

  13. The Century Ahead: Searching for Sustainability

    OpenAIRE

    Richard A. Rosen; Christi Electris; Raskin, Paul D.

    2010-01-01

    The global future lies before us as a highly uncertain and contested landscape with numerous perils along the way. This study explores possible pathways to sustainability by considering in quantitative detail four contrasting scenarios for the twenty-first century. The analysis reveals vividly the risks of conventional development approaches and the real danger of socio-ecological descent. Nonetheless, the paper underscores that a Great Transition scenario—turning toward a civilization of e...

  14. The 21st Century as Whose Century?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Scott

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Macro-analysis and East-West encounter are shown through consideration of objective yet subjective constructed concepts for the international system and international economy in the 21st century. Three paradigms are considered, namely the 21st century as the ‘Pacific Century’, as ‘China’s Century’ and as the ‘Asian Century’. Overlaps are shown between these three paradigms, as also developments in time, and gradually shift in geographical location. The ‘Pacific Century’, and its associated Rimspeak, was the paradigm emerging in the late 1970s, knitting together America’s West Coast and the Japanese economy. By the late 1980s this was already shifting to talk of the 21st century likely to be an ‘Asian Century’ model, mark-1, based on the Pacific Asia dynamism shown by the ‘Asian Tigers’ and Japan. However, the Asian financial crash of 1997-8, and the economic downturn in Japan, meant that such an ‘Asian Century’ seemed premature as the 21st century arrived. Instead, it was China’s economic growth that seemed most evident, and with it the concept of the 21st century as ‘China’s Century’. However, in turn that has already been modified during the first decade of the century by India’s arrival as a rapidly growing economy. Consequently the 21st century as ‘China’s Century’ and as ‘India’s Century’ has been combined into talk of an ‘Asian Century’, mark-2.

  15. Climate change scenarios and key climate indices in the Swiss Alpine region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubler, Elias; Croci-Maspoli, Mischa; Frei, Christoph; Liniger, Mark; Scherrer, Simon; Appenzeller, Christof

    2013-04-01

    For climate adaption and to support climate mitigation policy it is of outermost importance to demonstrate the consequences of climate change on a local level and in user oriented quantities. Here, a framework is presented to apply the Swiss national climate change scenarios CH2011 to climate indices with direct relevance to applications, such as tourism, transportation, agriculture and health. This framework provides results on a high spatial and temporal resolution and can also be applied in mountainous regions such as the Alps. Results are shown for some key indices, such as the number of summer days and tropical nights, growing season length, number of frost days, heating and cooling degree days, and the number of days with fresh snow. Particular focus is given to changes in the vertical distribution for the future periods 2020-2049, 2045-2074 and 2070-2099 relative to the reference period 1980-2009 for the A1B, A2 and RCP3PD scenario. The number of days with fresh snow is approximated using a combination of temperature and precipitation as proxies. Some findings for the latest scenario period are: (1) a doubling of the number of summer days by the end of the century under the business-as-usual scenario A2, (2) tropical nights appear above 1500 m asl, (3) the number of frost days may be reduced by more than 3 months at altitudes higher than 2500 m, (4) an overall reduction of heating degree days of about 30% by the end of the century, but on the other hand an increase in cooling degree days in warm seasons, and (5) the number of days with fresh snow tends to go towards zero at low altitudes. In winter, there is little change in snowfall above 2000 m asl (roughly -3 days) in all scenarios. The largest impact on snowfall is found along the Northern Alpine flank and the Jura (-10 days or roughly -50% in A1B for the winter season). It is also highlighted that the future projections for all indices strongly depend on the chosen scenario and on model uncertainty

  16. Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar

    2000-01-01

    A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as CFCs, CH4 and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, whose positive and negative climate forcings are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change of climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs In the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific longterm global monitoring of aerosol properties.

  17. Climate model emulation in an integrated assessment framework: a case study for mitigation policies in the electricity sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foley, A. M.; Holden, P. B.; Edwards, N. R.; Mercure, J.-F.; Salas, P.; Pollitt, H.; Chewpreecha, U.

    2016-02-01

    We present a carbon-cycle-climate modelling framework using model emulation, designed for integrated assessment modelling, which introduces a new emulator of the carbon cycle (GENIEem). We demonstrate that GENIEem successfully reproduces the CO2 concentrations of the Representative Concentration Pathways when forced with the corresponding CO2 emissions and non-CO2 forcing. To demonstrate its application as part of the integrated assessment framework, we use GENIEem along with an emulator of the climate (PLASIM-ENTSem) to evaluate global CO2 concentration levels and spatial temperature and precipitation response patterns resulting from CO2 emission scenarios. These scenarios are modelled using a macroeconometric model (E3MG) coupled to a model of technology substitution dynamics (FTT), and represent different emissions reduction policies applied solely in the electricity sector, without mitigation in the rest of the economy. The effect of cascading uncertainty is apparent, but despite uncertainties, it is clear that in all scenarios, global mean temperatures in excess of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels are projected by the end of the century. Our approach also highlights the regional temperature and precipitation patterns associated with the global mean temperature change occurring in these scenarios, enabling more robust impacts modelling and emphasizing the necessity of focusing on spatial patterns in addition to global mean temperature change.

  18. The world in scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

  19. Designing Learning Scenarios for Sustainable Futures

    OpenAIRE

    Jones, Hannah; Lundebye, Anette

    2015-01-01

    Abstract: Understanding sustainability in terms of our complex, dynamic and interconnected socio-ecological systems requires a different mindset or paradigm to the industrial mode of thinking that has influenced educational practice for the last century (Orr, 2004, Wood, 2007). Our ambitious 3-hour workshop will focus on developing scenarios as a way to prospect how design education might respond to a range of possible ecological futures at a systemic level. Method: We will use metadesign...

  20. Review of Climate Scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Concept and application requirements of climate scenarios were introduced briefly,meanwhile,progresses on theoretical and applied aspects of climate scenarios creation techniques were discussed systematically.Two methods on predicted regional climate changing scenarios,elevating the spatial resolution output and downscaling method,could retrieve the insufficiencies respectively.And the statistical-dynamical downscaling method will be an important developing trend in the developing of downscaling techniques.

  1. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Kriegler, Elmar; O' Neill, Brian; Ebi, Kristie L.; Riahi, Keywan; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Mathur, Ritu; Winkler, Harald

    2014-02-01

    In this paper, we present the scenario matrix architecture as part of the new scenario framework for climate change research. The matrix architecture focuses on a key question of current climate research, namely the identification of trade-offs and synergies (in terms of risks, costs and other consequences) of different adaptation and mitigation strategies. The framework has two main axes: 1) the level of forcing (as represented by the RCPs) and 2) different socio-economic reference pathways. The matrix can be used as a tool to guide new scenario development and analytical analysis. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic reference pathways and the shared policy assumptions, are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

  2. Europa Explorer Operational Scenarios Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lock, Robert E.; Pappalardo, Robert T.; Clark, Karla B.

    2008-01-01

    In 2007, NASA conducted four advanced mission concept studies for outer planets targets: Europa, Ganymede, Titan and Enceladus. The studies were conducted in close cooperation with the planetary science community. Of the four, the Europa Explorer Concept Study focused on refining mission options, science trades and implementation details for a potential flagship mission to Europa in the 2015 timeframe. A science definition team (SDT) was appointed by NASA to guide the study. A JPL-led engineering team worked closely with the science team to address 3 major focus areas: 1) credible cost estimates, 2) rationale and logical discussion of radiation risk and mitigation approaches, and 3) better definition and exploration of science operational scenario trade space. This paper will address the methods and results of the collaborative process used to develop Europa Explorer operations scenarios. Working in concert with the SDT, and in parallel with the SDT's development of a science value matrix, key mission capabilities and constraints were challenged by the science and engineering members of the team. Science goals were advanced and options were considered for observation scenarios. Data collection and return strategies were tested via simulation, and mission performance was estimated and balanced with flight and ground system resources and science priorities. The key to this successful collaboration was a concurrent development environment in which all stakeholders could rapidly assess the feasibility of strategies for their success in the full system context. Issues of science and instrument compatibility, system constraints, and mission opportunities were treated analytically and objectively leading to complementary strategies for observation and data return. Current plans are that this approach, as part of the system engineering process, will continue as the Europa Explorer Concept Study moves toward becoming a development project.

  3. The relative impact of climate change mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity - An integrated assessment modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J. A.; Clarke, L. E.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Chaturvedi, V.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Kim, S.; Calvin, K. V.; Moss, R. H.

    2012-12-01

    We investigate the relative effects of climate emission mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally, by estimating both water availability and demand within a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change - the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We first develop a global gridded monthly hydrologic model that reproduces historical streamflow observations and simulates the future availability of freshwater under both a changing climate and an evolving landscape, and incorporate this model into GCAM. We then develop and incorporate technologically oriented representations of water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. To perform the water scarcity analysis at the grid scale, the global water demands for the six demand sectors are spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. The water scarcity index (WSI) compares total water demand to the total amount of renewable water available, and defines extreme water scarcity in any region as demand greater than 40% of total water availability. Using a reference scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 by 2095 and a global population of 14 billion, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demands for water exceed the total

  4. A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vuuren, D.P. van; Riahi, K.; Moss, R.; Edmonds, J.; Thomson, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Kram, T.; Berkhout, F.; Swart, R.; Janetos, A.; Rose, S.K.; Arnell, N.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario " thread" through the different climate research communities (climate change - vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impac

  5. A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vuuren, van D.P.; Riahi, K.; Moss, R.; Edmonds, J.; Thomson, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Kram, T.; Berkhout, F.; Swart, R.J.; Janetos, A.; Rose, S.K.; Arnell, N.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario "thread" through the different climate research communities (climate change - vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impact

  6. Global Energy-Economy-Environment (E3) Scenarios to 2050 and Beyond

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    -climate policy scenarios; Emissions mitigation scenarios; and Sustainable-development scenarios. It seems useful to be explicit about the definition of sustainable development. At IIASA-ECS we use the non-quantitative definition coined originally by the Brundtland Commission: 'development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs' (WCED, 1987) as a point of departure. We then refer to sustainable-development scenarios (1) if economic growth (GDP/capita) is sustained throughout the whole time horizon, (2) if socio-economic equity (GDP/capita) among regions is enhanced significantly over the next century, (3) if reserves(resources)-to-production ratios do not decline over the scenario's time horizon, and if (4) carbon emissions at the end of the century are roughly at or below today's emissions level. This review includes all scenarios that IIASA-ECS contributed to the database of greenhouse gas emission scenarios, which was developed as part of the process of compiling the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, 2000; Morita and Lee, 1998; www-cger.nies.go.jp/cger-e/db/ipcc.html) and classifies them into these three groups.(author)

  7. Scenarios for nature development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harms, W.B.

    1995-01-01

    A procedure in backcasting scenarios is presented. Two case-studies differing in scale illustrate the differences in ecological contribution to plan design and to plan evaluation. Scenarios for nature development are presented for both case-studies, based on ecological objectives and spatial strateg

  8. Rail crash demonstration scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper describes the manner in which the rail crash scenario was selected for public demonstration. A simplified risk assessment led to the short listing of three contender scenarios involving a drop from a high level, a crash into an abutment and the crash of a train into a stationary flask. Predictive work led to the final selection of the train crash. (author)

  9. FEMA Hazard Mitigation Assistance Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA) Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This dataset contains closed and obligated projects funded under the following Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) grant programs: Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA)....

  10. Nuclear Reactor Empowerment in The 21st Century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scenarios of global energy need in the 21st century are discussed. Nuclear reactors will have important roles in supplying energy need in the 21st century if its evolutionary and innovative developments are continued to achieve economical competitiveness, high safety, positive environmental impacts, and ensuring sustain ability of innovation in the future energy supply

  11. Integrative Scenario Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  12. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning and...... counterintuitive ways in which an organization uses scenario planning in balancing the tension between exploration and exploitation. Moreover, this research proposes two novel mechanisms designed to enhance learning flows. At the core of this dissertation are four papers which in combination solidify our...

  13. A New Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research

    OpenAIRE

    van Vuuren, Detlef P.; KRIEGLER Elmar; O’Neill, Brian C.; Kristie L. Ebi; Riahi, Keywan

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative ...

  14. Climate change mitigation in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Bo

    2012-07-01

    China has been experiencing great economic development and fast urbanisation since its reforms and opening-up policy in 1978. However, these changes are reliant on consumption of primary energy, especially coal, characterised by high pollution and low efficiency. China's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) being the most significant contributor, have also been increasing rapidly in the past three decades. Responding to both domestic challenges and international pressure regarding energy, climate change and environment, the Chinese government has made a point of addressing climate change since the early 2000s. This thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of China's CO{sub 2} emissions and policy instruments for mitigating climate change. In the analysis, China's CO{sub 2} emissions in recent decades were reviewed and the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis examined. Using the mostly frequently studied macroeconomic factors and time-series data for the period of 1980-2008, the existence of an EKC relationship between CO{sub 2} per capita and GDP per capita was verified. However, China's CO{sub 2} emissions will continue to grow over coming decades and the turning point in overall CO{sub 2} emissions will appear in 2078 according to a crude projection. More importantly, CO{sub 2} emissions will not spontaneously decrease if China continues to develop its economy without mitigating climate change. On the other hand, CO{sub 2} emissions could start to decrease if substantial efforts are made. China's present mitigation target, i.e. to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 compared with the 2005 level, was then evaluated. Three business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios were developed and compared with the level of emissions according to the mitigation target. The calculations indicated that decreasing the CO{sub 2} intensity of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 is a challenging but hopeful target. To

  15. The role of nuclear energy in Lithuania under various post-Kyoto climate change mitigation regimes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Streimikiene, Dalia [Lithuanian Energy Institute, Breslaujos 3, LT-44403 Kaunas (Lithuania)], E-mail: dalia@mail.lei.lt

    2008-07-15

    The article aims to evaluate the potential role of nuclear energy in Lithuania under various post-Kyoto climate change mitigation regimes. Seeking to achieve this target the analysis of possible energy sector development scenarios in Lithuania was performed and CO{sub 2} emission projections for these scenarios were developed. The analysis of post-Kyoto climate change mitigation architectures was performed and the requirements of these possible climate change mitigation regimes for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction in Lithuania were assessed. Based on these assessments the potential role of new nuclear power in Lithuania was identified under various future climate change mitigation regimes.

  16. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  17. Investigating afforestation and bioenergy CCS as climate change mitigation strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The land-use sector can contribute to climate change mitigation not only by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but also by increasing carbon uptake from the atmosphere and thereby creating negative CO2 emissions. In this paper, we investigate two land-based climate change mitigation strategies for carbon removal: (1) afforestation and (2) bioenergy in combination with carbon capture and storage technology (bioenergy CCS). In our approach, a global tax on GHG emissions aimed at ambitious climate change mitigation incentivizes land-based mitigation by penalizing positive and rewarding negative CO2 emissions from the land-use system. We analyze afforestation and bioenergy CCS as standalone and combined mitigation strategies. We find that afforestation is a cost-efficient strategy for carbon removal at relatively low carbon prices, while bioenergy CCS becomes competitive only at higher prices. According to our results, cumulative carbon removal due to afforestation and bioenergy CCS is similar at the end of 21st century (600–700 GtCO2), while land-demand for afforestation is much higher compared to bioenergy CCS. In the combined setting, we identify competition for land, but the impact on the mitigation potential (1000 GtCO2) is partially alleviated by productivity increases in the agricultural sector. Moreover, our results indicate that early-century afforestation presumably will not negatively impact carbon removal due to bioenergy CCS in the second half of the 21st century. A sensitivity analysis shows that land-based mitigation is very sensitive to different levels of GHG taxes. Besides that, the mitigation potential of bioenergy CCS highly depends on the development of future bioenergy yields and the availability of geological carbon storage, while for afforestation projects the length of the crediting period is crucial. (letters)

  18. Investigating afforestation and bioenergy CCS as climate change mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Dietrich, Jan Philip; Klein, David; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Bonsch, Markus; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Weindl, Isabelle; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Müller, Christoph

    2014-05-01

    The land-use sector can contribute to climate change mitigation not only by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but also by increasing carbon uptake from the atmosphere and thereby creating negative CO2 emissions. In this paper, we investigate two land-based climate change mitigation strategies for carbon removal: (1) afforestation and (2) bioenergy in combination with carbon capture and storage technology (bioenergy CCS). In our approach, a global tax on GHG emissions aimed at ambitious climate change mitigation incentivizes land-based mitigation by penalizing positive and rewarding negative CO2 emissions from the land-use system. We analyze afforestation and bioenergy CCS as standalone and combined mitigation strategies. We find that afforestation is a cost-efficient strategy for carbon removal at relatively low carbon prices, while bioenergy CCS becomes competitive only at higher prices. According to our results, cumulative carbon removal due to afforestation and bioenergy CCS is similar at the end of 21st century (600-700 GtCO2), while land-demand for afforestation is much higher compared to bioenergy CCS. In the combined setting, we identify competition for land, but the impact on the mitigation potential (1000 GtCO2) is partially alleviated by productivity increases in the agricultural sector. Moreover, our results indicate that early-century afforestation presumably will not negatively impact carbon removal due to bioenergy CCS in the second half of the 21st century. A sensitivity analysis shows that land-based mitigation is very sensitive to different levels of GHG taxes. Besides that, the mitigation potential of bioenergy CCS highly depends on the development of future bioenergy yields and the availability of geological carbon storage, while for afforestation projects the length of the crediting period is crucial.

  19. Mitigation win-win

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Dominic; Lucas, Amanda; Barnes, Andrew

    2013-07-01

    Win-win messages regarding climate change mitigation policies in agriculture tend to oversimplify farmer motivation. Contributions from psychology, cultural evolution and behavioural economics should help to design more effective policy.

  20. The role of energy-service demand reduction in global climate change mitigation: Combining energy modelling and decomposition analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions different options have been considered: energy efficiency improvements, structural changes to low carbon or zero carbon fuel/technologies, carbon sequestration, and reduction in energy-service demands (useful energy). While efficiency and technology options have been extensively studied within the context of climate change mitigation, this paper addresses the possible role of price-related energy-service demand reduction. For this analysis, the elastic demand version of the TIAM-UCL global energy system model is used in combination with decomposition analysis. The results of the CO2 emission decomposition indicate that a reduction in energy-service demand can play a limited role, contributing around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. A look at the sectoral level reveals that the demand reduction can play a greater role in selected sectors like transport contributing around 16% at a global level. The societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. - Highlights: → A reduction in global energy-service demand can contribute around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. → The role of demand is a lot higher in transport than in the residential sector. → Contribution of demand reduction is higher in early periods of the 21st century. → Societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. → Regional shares in residual emissions vary under different elasticity scenarios.

  1. Mars base buildup scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

  2. GHG emissions and mitigation potential in Indian agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vetter, Sylvia; Feliciano, Diana; Sapkota, Tek; Hillier, Jon; Smith, Pete; Stirling, Clare

    2016-04-01

    India is one of the world's largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter, accounting for about 5% of global emissions with further increases expected in the future. The Government of India aims to reduce emission intensities by 20-25% by 2020 compared with the 2005 level. In a recent departure from past practice the reconvened Council on Climate Change stated that climate change in agriculture would include a component that would focus on reducing emissions in agriculture, particularly methane and nitrous oxide emissions. To develop recommendations for mitigation in agriculture in India, a baseline study is presented to analyse the GHG emissions from agriculture for current management (Directorate of Economics and Statistics of the government of India). This analysis is done for the two states Bihar and Haryana, which differ in their management and practises based on different climate and policies. This first analysis shows were the highest GHG emissions in agriculture is produced and were the highest mitigation potential might be. The GHG emissions and mitigation potential are calculated using the CCAFS Mitigation Option Tool (CCAFS-MOT) (https://ccafs.cgiar.org/mitigation-option-tool-agriculture#.VpTnWL826d4) with modifications for the special modelling. In a second step, stakeholder meetings provided a wide range of possible and definite scenarios (management, policy, technology, costs, etc.) for the future to mitigate emissions in agriculture as well as how to increase productivity. These information were used to create scenarios to give estimates for the mitigation potential in agriculture for India in 2020.

  3. Integrating uncertainties for climate change mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogelj, Joeri; McCollum, David; Reisinger, Andy; Meinshausen, Malte; Riahi, Keywan

    2013-04-01

    The target of keeping global average temperature increase to below 2°C has emerged in the international climate debate more than a decade ago. In response, the scientific community has tried to estimate the costs of reaching such a target through modelling and scenario analysis. Producing such estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well-known, but ill-quantified uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines. The integrated assessment community, on one side, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs. The climate modelling community, on the other side, has worked on achieving an increasingly better understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty for the cost of mitigation scenarios but has only been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in a rudimentary manner, i.e., for equilibrium conditions. To bridge this gap between the two research communities, we generate distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific temperature limits, taking into account uncertainties in multiple dimensions: geophysical, technological, social and political. In other words, uncertainties resulting from our incomplete knowledge about how the climate system precisely reacts to GHG emissions (geophysical uncertainties), about how society will develop (social uncertainties and choices), which technologies will be available (technological uncertainty and choices), when we choose to start acting globally on climate change (political choices), and how much money we are or are not willing to spend to achieve climate change mitigation. We find that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost-risk distribution, followed by

  4. Afforestation to mitigate climate change: impacts on food prices under consideration of albedo effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreidenweis, Ulrich; Humpenöder, Florian; Stevanović, Miodrag; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Kriegler, Elmar; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander

    2016-08-01

    Ambitious climate targets, such as the 2 °C target, are likely to require the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Afforestation is one such mitigation option but could, through the competition for land, also lead to food prices hikes. In addition, afforestation often decreases land-surface albedo and the amount of short-wave radiation reflected back to space, which results in a warming effect. In particular in the boreal zone, such biophysical warming effects following from afforestation are estimated to offset the cooling effect from carbon sequestration. We assessed the food price response of afforestation, and considered the albedo effect with scenarios in which afforestation was restricted to certain latitudinal zones. In our study, afforestation was incentivized by a globally uniform reward for carbon uptake in the terrestrial biosphere. This resulted in large-scale afforestation (2580 Mha globally) and substantial carbon sequestration (860 GtCO2) up to the end of the century. However, it was also associated with an increase in food prices of about 80% by 2050 and a more than fourfold increase by 2100. When afforestation was restricted to the tropics the food price response was substantially reduced, while still almost 60% cumulative carbon sequestration was achieved. In the medium term, the increase in prices was then lower than the increase in income underlying our scenario projections. Moreover, our results indicate that more liberalised trade in agricultural commodities could buffer the food price increases following from afforestation in tropical regions.

  5. Socio-economic Scenario Development for Climate Change Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    KRIEGLER Elmar; O'Neill, Brian-C; Hallegatte, Stéphane; Kram, Tom; Moss, Richard-H; Lempert, Robert; Wilbanks, Thomas J

    2010-01-01

    Socio-economic scenarios constitute an important tool for exploring the long-term consequences of anthropogenic climate change and available response options. They have been applied for different purposes and to a different degree in various areas of climate change analysis, typically in combination with projections of future climate change. Integrated assessment modeling (IAM) has used them to develop greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios for the 21st century and to investigate strategies...

  6. Synergy of debris mitigation and removal

    OpenAIRE

    Lewis, Hugh G.; White, Adam E.; Crowther, Richard; Stokes, Hedley

    2012-01-01

    At the beginning of the twenty-first century there was considerable effort made using evolutionary models to assess the effectiveness of post-mission disposal (PMD) and other mitigation measures to stabilise the growth of the debris population in low Earth orbit (LEO). Subsequently, this activity led to the recommendation of a “25-year rule” for the post-mission disposal of spacecraft and orbital stages intersecting the LEO region. At the time, it was anticipated that the 25-year rule, togeth...

  7. Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper develops scenarios whereby CO2 emissions from the transportation sector are eliminated worldwide by the end of this century. Data concerning the energy intensity and utilization of different passenger and freight transportation modes in 2005, and per capita income, in 10 different socio-economic regions of the world are combined with scenarios of population and per capita GDP to generate scenarios of future transportation energy demand. The impact of various technical options (improvements in the energy intensity of all transportation modes, changes in the proportions of vehicles with different drive trains, and a shift to biomass or hydrogen for the non-electricity energy requirements) and behavioural options (a shift to less energy-intensive LDV market segments, a reduction in total passenger-km of travel per capita, and an increase in the share of less energy-intensive passenger and freight modes of transport) is assessed. To eliminate transportation fossil fuel emissions within this century while limiting the demand for electricity, biofuels or hydrogen to manageable levels requires the simultaneous application of all the technical and behavioural measures considered here, with improvements in vehicle efficiencies and a shift to plug-in hybrid and battery-electric drive trains for light duty vehicles being the most important measures. - Highlights: ► Scenarios are developed whereby transportation CO2 emissions reach zero by 2100. ► These scenarios address concerns about peak oil and global warming. ► A comprehensive mix of technical and behavioural changes is considered in 10 world regions. ► Efficiency improvements and a shift to plug-in hybrid vehicles are the most important measures

  8. BECCS capability of dedicated bioenergy crops under a future land-use scenario targeting net negative carbon emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, E.; Yamagata, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socio-economic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large-scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2°C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full post-process combustion CO2 capture is deployed with a high fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required, however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise a conflict of land-use with food production is inevitable.

  9. Possible Scenarios of Impacts of Climatic Change on Potential Evapotranspiration in the Watershed of the Conchos River, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raynal-Villasenor, J. A.; Rodriguez-Pineda, J. A.

    2007-12-01

    The watershed of the Conchos River is the main watershed of the state of Chihuahua, Mexico, and it is the main source of water of the watershed of the Grande river downstream El Paso, Texas. Such part of the watershed of the Grande River is also the border between Mexico and the United States of America, from El Paso-Ciudad Juarez up to Brownsville-Matamoros. It is very important for the state of Chihuahua and Mexico as a whole, to construct possible scenarios of the effects of the global climatic change in the potential evapotranspiration in such watershed and to construct likely scenarios which results will help to define an integrated watershed management to mitigate those global climate change impacts. The results of a recent study sponsored by the alliance between WWF-Fundacion Gonzalo Rio Arronte, are presented in the paper. The study was conducted to construct possible scenarios on the effects of the global climatic change on the potential evapotranspiration in the watershed of the Conchos River in Mexico. Three watershed characteristic meteorological stations were selected to conduct such study. The predictions of change of the surface air temperature and the change of the rainfall produced by the global climatic change, by the end of the XXI Century, were those published by the Hadley Center. The results show that air temperature increment of one degree centigrade increases evapotranspiration values between 3 and 3.5% with respect current values. As a consequence moisture deficiency increases from 9% to 40%. With an air temperature increment of three degrees centigrades, the potential evapotranspiration increases between 8.8% and 10% increasing moisture deficiency from 27.5% up to 116%. The expected rainfall increment values show a negligible contribution for the potential evapotranspiration reduction in the Rio Conchos watershed. These results conclude that immediate actions need to be taken to mitigate climate change impacts all along the watershed.

  10. Indoor radon mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The action limit for indoor radon concentration in Finnish dwellings is 400 Bq/m3 which is exceeded in 50.000 dwellings. In these dwellings indoor radon mitigation is needed. The most important reason for high concentration is the soil air with high radon concentrations that flows into living spaces through openings and gaps in the building foundation. Slab on ground is the most prevalent type of foundation in Finnish single family houses. Without preventive measures, this type of foundation promotes the flow of radon-bearing soil air into living spaces. In the second popular foundation type, semi-basement houses, the flow of soil air through the walls in contact with soil still increases radon leakages. The key aim of indoor radon mitigation is to prevent or decrease the harmful flows of radon-bearing soil air into dwellings. This guide gives the basic information on Finnish regulations on indoor radon, leakage routes, effect of air exchange and under-pressure as well as pre-mitigation studies of houses. The results on the efficiency of various mitigation methods are based on a questionnaire study in 400 Finnish dwellings and on-site studies in numerous houses. In the case of sub slab suction, the Finnish guide published by the Ministry of Environment has also been utilized. Best mitigation efficiency has been achieved using sub slab suction and radon well. Typical indoor radon reduction factors for both methods are 70 - 90%, and the best results are above 95%. Sub slab suction can be implemented through both floor slab and foundation wall. An exhaust fan coupled to suction pit and exhaust piping creates underpressure and ventilation beneath the slab. In case of a radon well an exhaust fan sucks air from the soil and ventilates the soil air volume through a well construction placed outside the house. The depth of a radon well is 4 - 5 metres. A single radon well can reduce radon concentration in many dwellings at the distance up to 20 - 30 metres. Mitigation work

  11. Indoor radon mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The action limit for indoor radon concentration in Finnish dwellings is 400 Bq/m3 which is exceeded in 50.000 dwellings. In these dwellings indoor radon mitigation is needed. The most important reason for high concentration is the soil air with high radon concentrations that flows into living spaces through openings and gaps in the building foundation. Slab on-ground is the most prevalent type of foundation in Finnish single family houses. Without preventive measures, this type of foundation promotes the flow of radon-bearing soil air into living spaces. In the second popular foundation type, hill-side houses, the flow of soil air through the walls backing soil still increases radon leakages. The key aim of indoor radon mitigation is to prevent or decrease the harmful flows of radon-bearing soil air into dwellings. This guide gives the basic information on Finnish regulations on indoor radon, leakage routes, effect of air exchange and underpressure as well as pre-mitigation studies of houses. The results on the efficiency of various mitigation methods are based on a questionnaire study in 400 Finnish dwellings and on-site studies in numerous houses. In the case of sub-slab-suction the Finnish guide published by the Ministry of Environment has also been utilized. Best mitigation efficiency has been achieved using sub-slab-suction and radon well. Typical reduction factors for both methods are 70-90%, and the best results are above 95%. Sub-slab-suction can be implemented through both floor slab and foundation wall. An exhaust fan coupled to suction pit and exhaust piping creates underpressure and ventilation beneath the slab. In case of a radon well an exhaust fan sucks air from the soil and ventilates the soil air volume through a well construction placed outside the house. The depth of a radon well is 3-5 metres. A single radon well can reduce radon concentration in many dwellings at the distance up to 20-30 metres. Mitigation work based on ventilation aims at

  12. A Key to Improved Ion Core Confinement in the JET Tokamak: Ion Stiffness Mitigation due to Combined Plasma Rotation and Low Magnetic Shear

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mantica, P.; Challis, C.; Peeters, A.G.; Strintzi, D.; Tala, T.; Tsalas, M.; deVries, P.C.; Baiocchi, B.; Baruzzo, M.; Bizarro, J.; Buratti, P.; Citrin, J.; Colyer, G.; Crisanti, F.; Garbet, X.; Giroud, C.; Hawkes, N.; Hobirk, J.; Imbeaux, F.; Joffrin, E.; Johnson, T.; Lerche, E.; Mailloux, J.; Naulin, Volker; Salmi, A.; Sozzi, C.; Staebler, G.; Van Eester, D.; Versloot, T.; Weiland, J.

    2011-01-01

    for the understanding of improved ion core confinement in advanced tokamak scenarios. Simulations using quasilinear fluid and gyrofluid models show features of stiffness mitigation, while nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations do not. The JET experiments indicate that advanced tokamak scenarios in future...

  13. Nitrification Inhibitors: A Perspective Tool to Mitigate Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Rice Soils

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandeep K. Malyan

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Rice fields are significant contributors of greenhouse gases mainly methane and nitrous oxide to the atmosphere. Increasing concentrations of these greenhouse gases play significant role in changing atmospheric chemistry such as mean air temperature, rainfall pattern, drought, and flood frequency. Mitigation of greenhouse gases for achieving sustainable agriculture without affecting economical production is one the biggest challenge of twenty first century at national and global scale. On the basis of published scientific studies, we hereby assess the use of nitrification inhibitors for greenhouse gas mitigation from rice soil. Biologically oxidation of ammonium to nitrate is termed as nitrification and materials which suppress this process are known as nitrification inhibitors. Soil amendment by addition of certain nitrification inhibitors such as neem oil coated urea, nimin-coated urea; dicyandiamide, encapsulated calcium carbide, and hydroquinone reduce cumulative methane and nitrous oxide emission from rice. Firstly, these inhibitors reduce nitrous oxide emissions both directly by nitrification (by reducing NH4+ to NO3- as well as indirectly by de-nitrification (by reducing NO3- availability in soil. Secondly, methane emission from rice soil can be reduced by enhancing methane oxidation and suppressing methane production and further by reducing the aerenchymal transportation through rice plant. Application of some of the nitrification inhibitors such as calcium carbide and encapsulated calcium carbide reduce methane production by releasing acetylene gas which helps in reducing the population of methanogenic microbes in the soil. Application of nitrification inhibitors also helps to maintain soil redox potential at higher level subsequently reducing cumulative methane emission from soil. Plant derived organic nitrification inhibitors (neem oil, neem cake, karanja seed extract are eco-friendly and possess substantial greenhouse gas mitigation

  14. Using the New Scenarios Framework to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Finland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, T. R.

    2013-12-01

    In 2005, Finland was among the first countries in the world to develop a national climate change adaptation strategy (Marttila et al., 2005). This included a characterization of future changes in climate and socioeconomic conditions using scenarios based on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES - IPCC, 2000). Following a government evaluation of the strategy, completion of a national adaptation research programme, and in light of the recent European Union adaptation strategy, the Finnish strategy is now under revision. As part of this revision process, the New Scenario Framework (Moss et al., 2010) is being used to guide the mapping of future conditions in Finland out to the end of the 21st century. Future Finnish climate is being analysed using the CMIP5 climate model simulations (Taylor et al., 2012), including downscaled information based on regional climate model projections in the EURO-CORDEX project (Vautard et al., 2013). All projections are forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs - van Vuuren et al., 2011). Socioeconomic scenarios are also being developed by outlining alternative pathways that reflect national social, economic, environmental and planning goals. These are designed according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework of challenges to adaptation and mitigation (Kriegler et al., 2012). Work is in progress to characterize these pathways, mainly qualitatively, for different sectors in Finland. Preliminary results of the conceptual scenario development phase will be presented in this session. These initial ideas will be exchanged with representatives of ministries, regional government and key stakeholder groups. The eventual form and number of scenarios that appear in the revised strategy will be determined following a formal review of the draft document to be prepared in 2014. Future work could include quantification of scenarios, possibly mapping them onto the specific SSP worlds. This would then provide

  15. Projections of Climate Change over China for the 21st Century

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LUO Yong; ZHAO Zongci; XU Ying; GAO Xuejie; DING Yihui

    2005-01-01

    The projections of climate changes in China for the 21st century by about 40 climate scenarios and multi-model ensembles have been investigated in this research. All the models with the different scenarios project a warming of 1.2℃ to 9.2℃ in China by the end of 21st century. Most of the projections point show the increasing of precipitation in China for the 21st century.

  16. SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lourenço Junior

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

  17. Scenarios and innovative systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

  18. Mitigation technologies and measures in energy sector of Kazakstan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pilifosova, O.; Danchuk, D.; Temertekov, T. [and others

    1996-12-31

    An important commitment in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is to conduct mitigation analysis and to communicate climate change measures and policies. In major part reducing CO{sub 2} as well as the other greenhouse gas emissions in Kazakstan, can be a side-product of measures addressed to increasing energy efficiency. Since such measures are very important for the national economy, mitigation strategies in the energy sector of Kazakstan are directly connected with the general national strategy of the energy sector development. This paper outlines the main measures and technologies in energy sector of Kazakstan which can lead to GHG emissions reduction and presents the results of current mitigation assessment. The mitigation analysis is addressed to energy production sector. A baseline and six mitigation scenarios were developed to evaluate the most attractive mitigation options, focusing on specific technologies which have been already included in sustainable energy programs. According to the baseline projection, Kazakstan`s CO{sub 2} emissions will not exceed their 1990 level until 2005. The potential for CO{sub 2} emission reduction is estimated to be about 11 % of the base line emission level by the end of considered period (in 2020). The main mitigation options in the energy production sector in terms of mitigation potential and technical and economical feasibility include rehabilitation of thermal power plants aimed to increasing efficiency, use of nuclear energy and further expansion in the use of hydro energy based on small hydroelectric power plants.

  19. The Paradox of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation in Danish Housing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marsh, Rob

    2012-01-01

    as a climate mitigation strategy has therefore been carried out in relation to future climate change scenarios. It is shown that severe indoor comfort problems can occur, ques-tioning the relevance of passive solar energy as a climate mitigation strategy. In con-clusion, a theoretical study of the interplay...

  20. Classification of Emergency Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Muench, Mathieu

    2011-01-01

    In most of today's emergency scenarios information plays a crucial role. Therefore, information has to be constantly collected and shared among all rescue team members and this requires new innovative technologies. In this paper a classification of emergency scenarios is presented, describing their special characteristics and common strategies employed by rescue units to handle them. Based on interviews with professional firefighters, requirements for new systems are listed. The goal of this article is to support developers designing new systems by providing them a deeper look into the work of first responders.

  1. Scenario group summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The scenario is given which provides a plausible sequence of events for ISABELLE from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  2. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    worked to bring the experience generated from over four decades of scenario development in other issue domains, including energy and security, to bear on environmental scenarios, and to bring into dialogue scenario practitioners, both producers and users, with social science scholars. The set of contributions to this focus issue of Environmental Research Letters arose out of this workshop and collectively examines key challenges facing the scenario community, synthesizes lessons, and offers recommendations for new research and practice in this field. One theme that emerged in many of the discussions at the workshop revolved around the distinction between two broad perspectives on the goals of scenario exercises: scenarios as products and scenarios as processes. Most global environmental change scenario exercises are product-oriented; the content of the scenarios developed is the main goal of many participants and those who commission or organize the scenario development process. Typically, what is of most interest are the environmental outcomes produced, how they relate to the various factors driving them, and what the results tell us about the prospects for future environmental change, for impacts, and for mitigation. A product-oriented perspective assumes that once produced, scenario products have lives of their own, divorced from the processes that generated them and able to serve multiple, often unspecified purposes. Thus, it is often assumed that the scenario products can be 'taken up' by a variety of users in a variety of fora. A contrasting scenario approach is process-oriented and self-consciously privileges the process of scenario development as the primary goal, for example as a means to motivate organizational learning, find commonalities across different perspectives, achieve consensus on goals, or come to a shared understanding of challenges. Focusing on scenarios as processes highlights the social contexts in which scenarios are created and used. Process

  3. Optimising fusion's contribution to economically efficient climate change mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: The ambience within which fusion development planning is undertaken is changing. Recent publications by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and by the Stern Review (by the former Vice-President and Chief Economist of the World Bank) have removed most of the residual uncertainties about the reality, causation, pace and cost of climate change. European and Governmental decisions, and demonstrations of public support, have displayed increasing commitment to mitigating climate-changing emissions. It is becoming more widely appreciated that during the second two-thirds of this century continued world economic development, and continued growth in energy consumption, must co-exist with the reduction of carbon emissions to very low levels, and that this will give rise to large political and economic forces. The concluding of the ITER Treaty and the Broader Approach Agreement has removed much uncertainty relating to the near-term steps of fusion development. Concerns over energy security and diversity of supply have also markedly increased. Thus, it has become reasonable to plan on the assumption that in twenty years time ITER and IFMIF will have been successful and the world will be eager for clean, secure energy supplies. Previously published 'fast track' scenario studies all assumed a sequential model of fusion development, severely constrained by funding. The present paper explores the economic justification for relaxing these assumptions, drawing on the lessons to be learnt from self-consistent energy/environment/economics modelling, and the resulting potential for more rapid, but cost-effective, fusion deployment. This includes the consideration of the acceptability of reduced targets for the economic performance of the first generation of power plants (as might be evinced, for example, by pulsed operation or ITER design-basis plasma physics, lower fluence-limited lifetime for some components, and lower power density), and overlapping of

  4. What factors influence mitigative capacity?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article builds on Yohe's seminal piece on mitigative capacity, which elaborates 'determinants' of mitigative capacity, also reflected in the IPCC's third assessment report. We propose a revised definition, where mitigative capacity is a country's ability to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions or enhance natural sinks. By 'ability' we mean skills, competencies, fitness, and proficiencies that a country has attained which can contribute to GHG emissions mitigation. A conceptual framework is proposed, linking mitigative capacity to a country's sustainable development path, and grouping the factors influencing mitigative capacity into three main sets: economic factors, institutional ones, and technology. Both quantitative and qualitative analysis of factors is presented, showing how these factors vary across countries. We suggest that it is the interplay between the three economic factors-income, abatement cost and opportunity cost-that shape mitigative capacity. We find that income is an important economic factor influencing mitigative capacity, while abatement cost is important in turning mitigative capacity into actual mitigation. Technology is a critical mitigative capacity, including the ability to absorb existing climate-friendly technologies or to develop innovative ones. Institutional factors that promote mitigative capacity include the effectiveness of government regulation, clear market rules, a skilled work force and public awareness. We briefly investigate such as high abatement cost or lack of political willingness that prevent mitigative capacity from being translated into mitigation

  5. Indoor multipath mitigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dragünas, Kostas

    2010-01-01

    is the presence of multipath. The current paper analyzes several available multipath mitigation techniques which would be suitable for indoor applications. A few deconvolution based techniques such as the Projection Onto Convex Sets and the Deconvolution Approach are selected for closer investigation...

  6. Essays on mitigation options

    OpenAIRE

    Peinl, Hannes

    2015-01-01

    Die kumulative Dissertation "Essays on mitigation options" untersucht in drei Artikeln Wälder, Erneuerbare Energien sowie technologische Treibhausgassenken (carbon capture and storage (CCS) als wesentliche Vermeidungsoptionen im Kontext des Klimawandels. Der erste Artikel analysiert im Rahmen eines forstökonomischen, dynamischen Partialmodells grundlegende theoretische Bedingungen einer erweiterten forstlichen Kohlenstoffeinspeicherung. Der zweite Artikel untersucht im Rahmen eines allgemeine...

  7. Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Nicholas L.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of national and international space debris mitigation guides is to promote the preservation of near-Earth space for applications and exploration missions far into the future. To accomplish this objective, the accumulation of objects, particularly in long-lived orbits, must be eliminated or curtailed.

  8. Emergency exercise scenario tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nuclear power plant emergency exercises require a realistically presented accident situation which includes various aspects: plant process, radioactivity, radiation, weather and people. Experiences from nuclear power plant emergency exercises show that preparing accident scenarios even for relatively short exercises is tedious. In the future modern computer technology and past experience could be used for making exercise planning more effective. (au)

  9. Emergency exercise scenario tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sjoeblom, K

    1998-03-01

    Nuclear power plant emergency exercises require a realistically presented accident situation which includes various aspects: plant process, radioactivity, radiation, weather and people. Experiences from nuclear power plant emergency exercises show that preparing accident scenarios even for relatively short exercises is tedious. In the future modern computer technology and past experience could be used for making exercise planning more effective. (au)

  10. An economically reliable scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mister Benjamin Dessus, director of the Ecotech programme at the Cnrs and author of the Noe scenario, describes his propositions for energy prospective, supported by an economic analysis. He advocates the energy diversification and the use of renewable energies. (N.C.). 1 ref., 1 tab

  11. Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-09-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain.

  12. How much climate change can be avoided by mitigation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Washington, Warren M.; Knutti, Reto; Meehl, Gerald A.; Teng, Haiyan; Tebaldi, Claudia; Lawrence, David; Buja, Lawrence; Strand, Warren G.

    2009-04-01

    Avoiding the most serious climate change impacts will require informed policy decisions. This in turn will require information regarding the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions required to stabilize climate in a state not too much warmer than today. A new low emission scenario is simulated in a global climate model to show how some of the impacts from climate change can be averted through mitigation. Compared to a non-intervention reference scenario, emission reductions of about 70% by 2100 are required to prevent roughly half the change in temperature and precipitation that would otherwise occur. By 2100, the resulting stabilized global climate would ensure preservation of considerable Arctic sea ice and permafrost areas. Future heat waves would be 55% less intense, and sea level rise from thermal expansion would be about 57% lower than if a non-mitigation scenario was followed.

  13. Scenario study on the FBR deployment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study on success scenarios for the Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) deployment was performed taking account of future situation of fossil, renewable and nuclear energies in Japan as well as the world from the viewpoints of the following four items; economics, environment, energy security and restriction of natural uranium resources. In the economics scenario, if carbon tax is added to generating cost of LNG, coal and oil and the economics of FBR cycle is competitive with LWR cycle in the future, FBR cycle will be expected to introduce as the middle and base load power plant. In the environment scenario, there is also any possibility that FBR cycle which can burn and transmute minor actinide and fission product elements will be introduced in order to reduce the burden of deposit facility and the toxicity of high-level waste. In the uranium resources restriction scenario, FBR cycle needs to be deployed at the latest in the middle of 21st century from the viewpoint of the restriction of natural uranium resources. This study was carried out in a part of JNC's feasibility study on commercialized FBR cycle system. (author)

  14. SAFRR Tsunami Scenarios and USGS-NTHMP Collaboration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, S.; Wood, N. J.; Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.; Gately, K.; Jones, J. L.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Richards, K.; Wein, A. M.; Wilson, R. I.

    2015-12-01

    Hazard scenarios provide emergency managers and others with information to help them prepare for future disasters. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, published in 2013, modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. It presented the modeled inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. It provided the basis for many exercises involving, among others, NOAA, the State of Washington, several counties in California, and the National Institutes of Health. The scenario led to improvements in the warning protocol for southern California and highlighted issues that led to ongoing work on harbor and marina safety. Building on the lessons learned in the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, another tsunami scenario is being developed with impacts to Hawaii and to the source region in Alaska, focusing on the evacuation issues of remote communities with primarily shore parallel roads, and also on the effects of port closures. Community exposure studies in Hawaii (Ratliff et al., USGS-SIR, 2015) provided background for selecting these foci. One complicated and important aspect of any hazard scenario is defining the source event. The USGS is building collaborations with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to consider issues involved in developing a standardized set of tsunami sources to support hazard mitigation work. Other key USGS-NTHMP collaborations involve population vulnerability and evacuation modeling.

  15. Landslides risk mitigation along lifelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capparelli, G.; Versace, P.; Artese, G.; Costanzo, S.; Corsonello, P.; Di Massa, G.; Mendicino, G.; Maletta, D.; Leone, S.; Muto, F.; Senatore, A.; Troncone, A.; Conte, E.; Galletta, D.

    2012-04-01

    The paper describes an integrated, innovative and efficient solution to manage risk issues associated to landslides interfering with infrastructures. The research project was submitted for financial support in the framework of the Multi -regional Operational Programme 2007-13: Research and Competitiveness funded by the Ministry of Research (MIUR) and co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund. The project is aimed to developing and demonstrating an integrated system of monitoring, early warning and mitigation of landslides risk. The final goal is to timely identify potentially dangerous landslides, and to activate all needed impact mitigation measures, including the information delivery. The essential components of the system include monitoring arrays, telecommunication networks and scenario simulation models, assisted by a data acquisition and processing centre, and a traffic control centres. Upon integration, the system will be experimentally validated and demonstrated over ca. 200 km of three highway sections, crossing the regions of Campania, Basilicata, Calabria and Sicily. Progress in the state of art is represented by the developments in the field of environmental monitoring and in the mathematical modeling of landslides and by the development of services for traffic management. The approach to the problem corresponds to a "systemic logics" where each developed component foresees different interchangeable technological solutions to maximize the operational flexibility. The final system may be configured as a simple to complex structure, including different configurations to deal with different scenarios. Specifically, six different monitoring systems will be realized: three "point" systems, made up of a network of locally measuring sensors, and three "area" systems to remotely measure the displacements of large areas. Each network will be fully integrated and connected to a unique data transmission system. Standardized and shared procedures for the

  16. Mitigation by design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitigation or 'the act of bringing together' is not to be confused with applied architectural or landscape cosmetics to render development which has been predesigned in terms of engineering parameters to be more 'seemly' or 'attractive'. It is more profoundly an exercise in simultaneous engineering and environmental analysis in which the level of synthesis between the elements of construction and the elements of the physical environment is fundamental to the ultimate design success of projects. This text, having looked firstly at the nature of design and the characteristics of design processes and procedures, considers the linkages and interaction between design and the statutory land use planning system through which major development projects in Scotland are authorised. A case study of the development of the oil handling terminal at Flotta, Orkney, is included to demonstrate the implications of certain problems related to mitigation by design. (author)

  17. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  18. Ontario demand response scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

  19. Swedish Retrievability Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After a brief presentation of the retrievability concept and of the plan for the construction and operation of a final repository for spent nuclear fuel (not a facility for long-term storage), the author presents different scenarios associated with the application of the retrievability concept. It is applied either before closure (three scenarios are identified: shortcomings/mistakes during deposition operations may have to be corrected by retrieving single canisters for inspection or other measures; during the operation time of the repository the acquisition of new knowledge results in the long-term safety case being questioned; during the operation time of the repository it is decided that new nuclear power should be installed in Sweden), or after closure (two scenarios are formulated: sometime after deposition of the last canister the acquisition of new knowledge results in the long-term safety case being questioned, sometime after closure of the repository, the repository is regarded as an asset containing valuable material and not 'waste')

  20. Mitigating Infectious Disease Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davey, Victoria

    The emergence of new, transmissible infections poses a significant threat to human populations. As the 2009 novel influenza A/H1N1 pandemic and the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic demonstrate, we have observed the effects of rapid spread of illness in non-immune populations and experienced disturbing uncertainty about future potential for human suffering and societal disruption. Clinical and epidemiologic characteristics of a newly emerged infectious organism are usually gathered in retrospect as the outbreak evolves and affects populations. Knowledge of potential effects of outbreaks and epidemics and most importantly, mitigation at community, regional, national and global levels is needed to inform policy that will prepare and protect people. Study of possible outcomes of evolving epidemics and application of mitigation strategies is not possible in observational or experimental research designs, but computational modeling allows conduct of `virtual' experiments. Results of well-designed computer simulations can aid in the selection and implementation of strategies that limit illness and death, and maintain systems of healthcare and other critical resources that are vital to public protection. Mitigating Infectious Disease Outbreaks.

  1. Usability standards meet scenario-based design: challenges and opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent, Christopher J; Blandford, Ann

    2015-02-01

    The focus of this paper is on the challenges and opportunities presented by developing scenarios of use for interactive medical devices. Scenarios are integral to the international standard for usability engineering of medical devices (IEC 62366:2007), and are also applied to the development of health software (draft standard IEC 82304-1). The 62366 standard lays out a process for mitigating risk during normal use (i.e. use as per the instructions, or accepted medical practice). However, this begs the question of whether "real use" (that which occurs in practice) matches "normal use". In this paper, we present an overview of the product lifecycle and how it impacts on the type of scenario that can be practically applied. We report on the development and testing of a set of scenarios intended to inform the design of infusion pumps based on "real use". The scenarios were validated by researchers and practitioners experienced in clinical practice, and their utility was assessed by developers and practitioners representing different stages of the product lifecycle. These evaluations highlighted previously unreported challenges and opportunities for the use of scenarios in this context. Challenges include: integrating scenario-based design with usability engineering practice; covering the breadth of uses of infusion devices; and managing contradictory evidence. Opportunities included scenario use beyond design to guide marketing, to inform purchasing and as resources for training staff. This study exemplifies one empirically grounded approach to communicating and negotiating the realities of practice. PMID:25460202

  2. Implications of climate mitigation for future agricultural production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization. Consequently, analysis of the effects of climate mitigation on agricultural productivity must address not only regions for which mitigation is likely to reduce or even reverse climate damages. There are also regions that are likely to see increased crop yields due to climate change, which may lose these added potentials under mitigation action. Comparing data from the most comprehensive archive of crop yield projections publicly available, we find that climate mitigation leads to overall benefits from avoided damages at the global scale and especially in many regions that are already at risk of food insecurity today. Ignoring controversial carbon dioxide fertilization effects on crop productivity, we find that for the median projection aggressive mitigation could eliminate ∼81% of the negative impacts of climate change on biophysical agricultural productivity globally by the end of the century. In this case, the benefits of mitigation typically extend well into temperate regions, but vary by crop and underlying climate model projections. Should large benefits to crop yields from carbon dioxide fertilization be realized, the effects of mitigation become much more mixed, though still positive globally and beneficial in many food insecure

  3. Implications of climate mitigation for future agricultural production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schmid, Erwin

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization. Consequently, analysis of the effects of climate mitigation on agricultural productivity must address not only regions for which mitigation is likely to reduce or even reverse climate damages. There are also regions that are likely to see increased crop yields due to climate change, which may lose these added potentials under mitigation action. Comparing data from the most comprehensive archive of crop yield projections publicly available, we find that climate mitigation leads to overall benefits from avoided damages at the global scale and especially in many regions that are already at risk of food insecurity today. Ignoring controversial carbon dioxide fertilization effects on crop productivity, we find that for the median projection aggressive mitigation could eliminate ∼81% of the negative impacts of climate change on biophysical agricultural productivity globally by the end of the century. In this case, the benefits of mitigation typically extend well into temperate regions, but vary by crop and underlying climate model projections. Should large benefits to crop yields from carbon dioxide fertilization be realized, the effects of mitigation become much more mixed, though still positive globally and beneficial in many food insecure

  4. Modeling postfire water erosion mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rulli, M. C.; Offeddu, L.; Santini, M.

    2012-09-01

    Severe wildfires are often followed by significant increase in runoff and erosion, due to vegetation damages and changes in physical and chemical soil properties. Peak flows and sediment yields can increase up to two orders of magnitude becoming dangerous for human lives and ecosystem, especially in the wildland-urban interface. Watershed post fire rehabilitation measures are usually used to mitigate the effects of fire on runoff and erosion, by protecting soil from splash and shear stress detachment and enhancing its infiltration capacity. Modeling post fire erosion and erosion mitigation strategies can be useful in selecting the effectiveness of rehabilitation method. In this paper a distributed model based on Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), properly parameterized for a Mediterranean basin located in Sardinia, is used to determine soil losses for six different scenarios describing both natural and post-fire basin condition, the last accounting also for the single and combined effect of different erosion mitigation measures. Fire effect on vegetation and soil properties have been mimed by changing soil drainage capacity and organic matter content, and RUSLE factors related to soil cover and protection measures. Model results show for the analyzed rehabilitation treatments their effect in reducing the amount of soil losses with the peculiar characteristics of the spatial distribution of such changes.

  5. Modeling postfire water erosion mitigation strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. C. Rulli

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Severe wildfires are often followed by significant increase in runoff and erosion, due to vegetation damages and changes in physical and chemical soil properties. Peak flows and sediment yields can increase up to two orders of magnitude becoming dangerous for human lives and ecosystem, especially in the wildland-urban interface. Watershed post fire rehabilitation measures are usually used to mitigate the effects of fire on runoff and erosion, by protecting soil from splash and shear stress detachment and enhancing its infiltration capacity. Modeling post fire erosion and erosion mitigation strategies can be useful in selecting the effectiveness of rehabilitation method. In this paper a distributed model based on Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE, properly parameterized for a Mediterranean basin located in Sardinia, is used to determine soil losses for six different scenarios describing both natural and post-fire basin condition, the last accounting also for the single and combined effect of different erosion mitigation measures. Fire effect on vegetation and soil properties have been mimed by changing soil drainage capacity and organic matter content, and RUSLE factors related to soil cover and protection measures.

    Model results show for the analyzed rehabilitation treatments their effect in reducing the amount of soil losses with the peculiar characteristics of the spatial distribution of such changes.

  6. Mitigating residential exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klepeis, Neil E.; Nazaroff, William W.

    In a companion paper, we used a simulation model to explore secondhand tobacco smoke (SHS) exposures for typical conditions in residences. In the current paper, we extend this analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of physical mitigation approaches in reducing nonsmokers' exposure to airborne SHS particulate matter in a hypothetical 6-zone house. Measures investigated included closing doors or opening windows in response to smoking activity, modifying location patterns to segregate the nonsmoker and the active smoker, and operating particle filtration devices. We first performed 24 scripted simulation trials using hypothetical patterns of occupant location. We then performed cohort simulation trials across 25 mitigation scenarios using over 1000 pairs of nonsmoker and smoker time-location patterns that were selected from a survey of human activity patterns in US homes. We limited cohort pairs to cases where more than 10 cigarettes were smoked indoors at home each day and the nonsmoker was at home for more than two thirds of the day. We evaluated the effectiveness of each mitigation approach by examining its impact on the simulated frequency distribution of residential SHS particle exposure. The two most effective strategies were the isolation of the smoker in a closed room with an open window, and a ban on smoking whenever the nonsmoker was at home. The use of open windows to supply local or cross ventilation, or the operation of portable filtration devices in smoking rooms, provided moderate exposure reductions. Closed doors, by themselves, were not effective.

  7. Estimating the supply and demand for deep geologic CO2 storage capacity over the course of the 21st Century: A meta-analysis of the literature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dooley, James J.

    2013-08-05

    Whether there is sufficient geologic CO2 storage capacity to allow CCS to play a significant role in mitigating climate change has been the subject of debate since the 1990s. This paper presents a meta- analysis of a large body of recently published literature to derive updated estimates of the global deep geologic storage resource as well as the potential demand for this geologic CO2 storage resource over the course of this century. This analysis reveals that, for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation scenarios that have end-of-century atmospheric CO2 concentrations of between 350 ppmv and 725 ppmv, the average demand for deep geologic CO2 storage over the course of this century is between 410 GtCO2 and 1,670 GtCO2. The literature summarized here suggests that -- depending on the stringency of criteria applied to calculate storage capacity – global geologic CO2 storage capacity could be: 35,300 GtCO2 of “theoretical” capacity; 13,500 GtCO2 of “effective” capacity; 3,900 GtCO2, of “practical” capacity; and 290 GtCO2 of “matched” capacity for the few regions where this narrow definition of capacity has been calculated. The cumulative demand for geologic CO2 storage is likely quite small compared to global estimates of the deep geologic CO2 storage capacity, and therefore, a “lack” of deep geologic CO2 storage capacity is unlikely to be an impediment for the commercial adoption of CCS technologies in this century.

  8. Greenhouse gas emission mitigation potential of rice husks for An Giang province, Vietnam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    To evaluate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission mitigation potential of rice husk utilization, a life cycle inventory analysis was conducted for 18 scenarios. The allocation of fuels, other than rice husks, was decided based on the current demand for and supply of rice husks. To prevent the bulky nature of rice husks, briquette production is also discussed. In the power generation scenarios, the differences between two capacities (5 MW and 30 MW) were analyzed. The results of analysis reveal that CH4 and N2O emissions from open burning contribute largely to the current GHG emissions. Therefore, ceasing open burning alone has a large GHG mitigation potential. The use of briquettes, even though GHG is emitted during the production stage, can still contribute to GHG emission mitigation as the production is more efficient than rice husk burning or dumping. In the power generation scenarios, most GHG emissions were derived from the combustion process. Therefore, gasification which has a little combustion process is the most efficient GHG mitigator. Both the replacement of grid electricity by generated electricity, and the replacement of diesel oil by pyrolyzed oil show larger GHG mitigation potentials than what could be derived from open burning cessation alone. -- Highlights: → The different rice husk use technologies are analyzed to evaluate greenhouse gas (GHG) emission mitigation potential. → The innovative technologies show higher mitigation potential than that of conventional uses (cooking and brick making). → Rice husk briquette use as a transient technology also shows high GHG mitigation.

  9. Scenario-Based Stochastic Programs: Strategies for Deleting Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Dupacova, J.

    1995-01-01

    The proposed strategies for deleting scenarios are based on postoptimality analysis of the optimal value function with respect to probabilities of the included scenarios. These strategies can be used to reduce the size of the large scenario based problems or of the problems constructed in the course of specific numerical procedures, such as stochastic decomposition or scenario aggregation. A convex nonsmooth optimization problem is replaced by a sequence of line search problems along rec...

  10. Scenarios for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: 'Technology on the throne' (market rule/high growth); 'Intense competition' (market rule/low growth); 'Monopoly takes over' (political rule/high growth); and 'Green local society' (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  11. Discovering the new RCP and SSP scenarios used by the IPCC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents the scenarios defined by a group of experts within the perspective of the 5. IPCC report. This four reference scenarios named RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) have been designed to foresee the evolution of concentrations of greenhouse gases, of ozone, and of aerosol precursors for the 21. century and beyond. The report also evokes the evolution of simulations used by climatologists, and the introduction of a representation of social and economic evolutions (definition of five families of scenario-types: sustainability, middle of the road, fragmentation, inequality, and conventional development). The consistency of these RCP scenarios and social-economical scenarios is outlined

  12. Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilkinson, Angela; Eidinow, Esther [James Martin Institute, Said Business School, University of Oxford, Park End Street, Oxford OX1 1HP (United Kingdom)

    2008-10-15

    A new approach to scenarios focused on environmental concerns, changes and challenges, i.e. so-called 'environmental scenarios', is necessary if global environmental changes are to be more effectively appreciated and addressed through sustained and collaborative action. On the basis of a comparison of previous approaches to global environmental scenarios and a review of existing scenario typologies, we propose a new scenario typology to help guide scenario-based interventions. This typology makes explicit the types of and/or the approaches to knowledge ('the epistemologies') which underpin a scenario approach. Drawing on previous environmental scenario projects, we distinguish and describe two main types in this new typology: 'problem-focused' and 'actor-centric'. This leads in turn to our suggestion for a third type, which we call 'RIMA'-'reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based'. This approach to scenarios emphasizes the importance of the involvement of different epistemologies in a scenario-based process of action learning in the public interest. We suggest that, by combining the epistemologies apparent in the previous two types, this approach can create a more effective bridge between longer-term thinking and more immediate actions. Our description is aimed at scenario practitioners in general, as well as those who work with (environmental) scenarios that address global challenges.

  13. Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Angela; Eidinow, Esther

    2008-10-01

    A new approach to scenarios focused on environmental concerns, changes and challenges, i.e. so-called 'environmental scenarios', is necessary if global environmental changes are to be more effectively appreciated and addressed through sustained and collaborative action. On the basis of a comparison of previous approaches to global environmental scenarios and a review of existing scenario typologies, we propose a new scenario typology to help guide scenario-based interventions. This typology makes explicit the types of and/or the approaches to knowledge ('the epistemologies') which underpin a scenario approach. Drawing on previous environmental scenario projects, we distinguish and describe two main types in this new typology: 'problem-focused' and 'actor-centric'. This leads in turn to our suggestion for a third type, which we call 'RIMA'—'reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based'. This approach to scenarios emphasizes the importance of the involvement of different epistemologies in a scenario-based process of action learning in the public interest. We suggest that, by combining the epistemologies apparent in the previous two types, this approach can create a more effective bridge between longer-term thinking and more immediate actions. Our description is aimed at scenario practitioners in general, as well as those who work with (environmental) scenarios that address global challenges.

  14. Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A new approach to scenarios focused on environmental concerns, changes and challenges, i.e. so-called 'environmental scenarios', is necessary if global environmental changes are to be more effectively appreciated and addressed through sustained and collaborative action. On the basis of a comparison of previous approaches to global environmental scenarios and a review of existing scenario typologies, we propose a new scenario typology to help guide scenario-based interventions. This typology makes explicit the types of and/or the approaches to knowledge ('the epistemologies') which underpin a scenario approach. Drawing on previous environmental scenario projects, we distinguish and describe two main types in this new typology: 'problem-focused' and 'actor-centric'. This leads in turn to our suggestion for a third type, which we call 'RIMA'-'reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based'. This approach to scenarios emphasizes the importance of the involvement of different epistemologies in a scenario-based process of action learning in the public interest. We suggest that, by combining the epistemologies apparent in the previous two types, this approach can create a more effective bridge between longer-term thinking and more immediate actions. Our description is aimed at scenario practitioners in general, as well as those who work with (environmental) scenarios that address global challenges.

  15. Nineteenth-Century English

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fabricius, Anne

    2009-01-01

    The article reviews the book "Nineteenth-Century English: Stability and Change," by Merja Kytö, Mats Rydèn and Erik Smitterberg......The article reviews the book "Nineteenth-Century English: Stability and Change," by Merja Kytö, Mats Rydèn and Erik Smitterberg...

  16. Pileup Mitigation Techniques

    CERN Document Server

    Klein, Matthew Henry; The ATLAS collaboration

    2016-01-01

    We report on recent progress in the ATLAS experiment in developing tools to mitigate the effects of pile-up. Forward pile-up jet tagging techniques, as well as constituent-level pile-up suppression algorithms are discussed in details. The impacts of these approaches on both jet energy and angular resolution, as well as jet substructure and boosted object tagging performance are discussed. Improvements to various physics channels of interest are discussed and the potential future of such algorithms — both online and offline, and both at the current LHC and a future high-luminosity LHC and beyond — is considered in detail

  17. Indoor multipath mitigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dragünas, Kostas; Borre, Kai

    2010-01-01

    There are many applications that require continuous positioning in combined outdoor urban and indoor environments. GNSS has been used for a long time in outdoor environments, while indoor positioning is still a challenging task. One of the major degradations that GNSS receivers experience indoors...... is the presence of multipath. The current paper analyzes several available multipath mitigation techniques which would be suitable for indoor applications. A few deconvolution based techniques such as the Projection Onto Convex Sets and the Deconvolution Approach are selected for closer investigation...

  18. Mitigating natural disasters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Floods and storm surges in Bangladesh, cyclones in the Philippines, earthquakes in Turkey, Mexico, Armenia (USSR) and California (USA), volcanoes in Columbia and landslides in Indonesia: all these recent major disasters indicate a trend of rising severity of disasters in both developing and developed countries. The changing dimensions of these disasters have been population growth, urbanization and industrialization. While every effort must be made to deconcentrate development (and the population) in disaster-prone regions, the fact remains that such a process is complex and slow to establish. The vulnerability/disaster/relief spiral must, and can, be brought under control by means of disaster mitigation. (author)

  19. Scenarios for fusion energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Are there scenarios for the near future (5-10 years) in which the public interest in, and political support for, fusion energy are likely to increase significantly? If such a scenario should occur, what should the status of heavy-ion fusion be at that time so that it is looked upon as a favored approach? If such a status can be identified, what should the research strategy be so that this status can be achieved in a timely way? This paper will look for answers to the first two of the above questions. If the goal of a desired status can be identified, the research strategy may become obvious. Of the four long-term energy options - coal, solar, fission breeders and fusion - the present position of fusion is in fourth place, never having generated any power. However, coal has environmental and safety problems. Solar has limitations of cost, availability and space requirements. Fission in general, and breeder reactors in particular, have problems of cost, environment and public acceptance. To be accepted and elevated to a position of equality with the others, heavy-ion fusion must simultaneously avoid their real and perceived major flaws. To succeed, heavy-ion fusion must strive to be markedly the best fusion option. (orig.)

  20. ILC Operating Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The ILC Technical Design Report documents the design for the construction of a linear collider which can be operated at energies up to 500 GeV. This report summarizes the outcome of a study of possible running scenarios, including a realistic estimate of the real time accumulation of integrated luminosity based on ramp-up and upgrade processes. The evolution of the physics outcomes is emphasized, including running initially at 500 GeV, then at 350 GeV and 250 GeV. The running scenarios have been chosen to optimize the Higgs precision measurements and top physics while searching for evidence for signals beyond the standard model, including dark matter. In addition to the certain precision physics on the Higgs and top that is the main focus of this study, there are scientific motivations that indicate the possibility for discoveries of new particles in the upcoming operations of the LHC or the early operation of the ILC. Follow-up studies of such discoveries could alter the plan for the centre-of-mass collision energy of the ILC and expand the scientific impact of the ILC physics program. It is envisioned that a decision on a possible energy upgrade would be taken near the end of the twenty year period considered in this report.

  1. EXAMPLE EXPOSURE SCENARIOS ASSESSMENT TOOL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure scenarios are a tool to help the assessor develop estimates of exposure, dose, and risk. An exposure scenario generally includes facts, data, assumptions, inferences, and sometimes professional judgment about how the exposure takes place. The human physiological and beh...

  2. Bioclimatic predictions of habitat suitability for the biofuel switchgrass in North America under current and future climate scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dedicated biofuel crops, while providing economic and other benefits, may adversely impact biodiversity directly via land use conversion, or indirectly via creation of novel invasive species. To mitigate negative impacts bioclimatic envelope models (BEM) can be used to estimate the potential distribution and suitable habitat based on the climate and distribution in the native range. We used CLIMEX to evaluate the regions of North America suitable for agronomic production, as well as regions potentially susceptible to an invasion of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) under both current and future climate scenarios. Model results show that >8.7 million km2 of North America has suitable to very favorable habitat, most of which occurs east of the Rocky Mountains. The non-native range of western North America is largely unsuitable to switchgrass as a crop or potential weed unless irrigation or permanent water is available. Under both the CGCM2 and HadCM3 climate models and A2 and B2 emissions scenarios, an overall increase in suitable habitat is predicted over the coming century, although the western US remains unsuitable. Our results suggest that much of North America is suitable for switchgrass cultivation, although this is likely to shift north in the coming century. Our results also agree with field collections of switchgrass outside its native range, which indicate that switchgrass is unlikely to establish unless it has access to water throughout the year (e.g., along a stream). Thus, it is the potential invasion of switchgrass into riparian habitats in the West that requires further investigation. (author)

  3. Biomass Energy for Transport and Electricity: Large scale utilization under low CO2 concentration scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luckow, Patrick; Wise, Marshall A.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.

    2010-01-25

    This paper examines the potential role of large scale, dedicated commercial biomass energy systems under global climate policies designed to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of CO2 at 400ppm and 450ppm. We use an integrated assessment model of energy and agriculture systems to show that, given a climate policy in which terrestrial carbon is appropriately valued equally with carbon emitted from the energy system, biomass energy has the potential to be a major component of achieving these low concentration targets. The costs of processing and transporting biomass energy at much larger scales than current experience are also incorporated into the modeling. From the scenario results, 120-160 EJ/year of biomass energy is produced by midcentury and 200-250 EJ/year by the end of this century. In the first half of the century, much of this biomass is from agricultural and forest residues, but after 2050 dedicated cellulosic biomass crops become the dominant source. A key finding of this paper is the role that carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies coupled with commercial biomass energy can play in meeting stringent emissions targets. Despite the higher technology costs of CCS, the resulting negative emissions used in combination with biomass are a very important tool in controlling the cost of meeting a target, offsetting the venting of CO2 from sectors of the energy system that may be more expensive to mitigate, such as oil use in transportation. The paper also discusses the role of cellulosic ethanol and Fischer-Tropsch biomass derived transportation fuels and shows that both technologies are important contributors to liquid fuels production, with unique costs and emissions characteristics. Through application of the GCAM integrated assessment model, it becomes clear that, given CCS availability, bioenergy will be used both in electricity and transportation.

  4. Quantifying four scenarios for Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Arjan Lejour

    2003-01-01

    This study presents four economic scenarios for Europe until 2040. The scenarios are developed around two key uncertainties: international cooperation and institutional reforms. In the scenarios Strong Europe (SE) and Global Economy (GE), international cooperation is prominent, while the other scenarios, Regional Communities (RC) and Transatlantic Market (TM), feature limited international cooperation. Public institutions are important in Strong Europe and Regional Communities. In Global Econ...

  5. 40 Years of Shell Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-02-15

    Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

  6. Europe's forest management did not mitigate climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naudts, Kim; Chen, Yiying; McGrath, Matthew J; Ryder, James; Valade, Aude; Otto, Juliane; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan

    2016-02-01

    Afforestation and forest management are considered to be key instruments in mitigating climate change. Here we show that since 1750, in spite of considerable afforestation, wood extraction has led to Europe's forests accumulating a carbon debt of 3.1 petagrams of carbon. We found that afforestation is responsible for an increase of 0.12 watts per square meter in the radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere, whereas an increase of 0.12 kelvin in summertime atmospheric boundary layer temperature was mainly caused by species conversion. Thus, two and a half centuries of forest management in Europe have not cooled the climate. The political imperative to mitigate climate change through afforestation and forest management therefore risks failure, unless it is recognized that not all forestry contributes to climate change mitigation. PMID:26912701

  7. Scenarios of energy demand and efficiency potential for Bulgaria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tzvetanov, P.; Ruicheva, M.; Denisiev, M.

    1996-12-31

    The paper presents aggregated results on macroeconomic and final energy demand scenarios developed within the Bulgarian Country Study on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation, supported by US Country Studies Program. The studies in this area cover 5 main stages: (1) {open_quotes}Baseline{close_quotes} and {open_quotes}Energy Efficiency{close_quotes} socioeconomic and energy policy philosophy; (2) Modeling of macroeconomic and sectoral development till 2020; (3) Expert assessments on the technological options for energy efficiency increase and GHG mitigation in the Production, Transport and Households and Services Sectors; (4) Bottom-up modeling of final energy demand; and (5) Sectoral and overall energy efficiency potential and policy. Within the Bulgarian Country Study, the presented results have served as a basis for the final integration stage {open_quotes}Assessment of the Mitigation Policy and Measures in the Energy System of Bulgaria{close_quotes}.

  8. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    article uses insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can...

  9. Stray voltage mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jamali, B.; Piercy, R.; Dick, P. [Kinetrics Inc., Toronto, ON (Canada). Transmission and Distribution Technologies

    2008-04-09

    This report discussed issues related to farm stray voltage and evaluated mitigation strategies and costs for limiting voltage to farms. A 3-phase, 3-wire system with no neutral ground was used throughout North America before the 1930s. Transformers were connected phase to phase without any electrical connection between the primary and secondary sides of the transformers. Distribution voltage levels were then increased and multi-grounded neutral wires were added. The earth now forms a parallel return path for the neutral current that allows part of the neutral current to flow continuously through the earth. The arrangement is responsible for causing stray voltage. Stray voltage causes uneven milk production, increased incidences of mastitis, and can create a reluctance to drink water amongst cows when stray voltages are present. Off-farm sources of stray voltage include phase unbalances, undersized neutral wire, and high resistance splices on the neutral wire. Mitigation strategies for reducing stray voltage include phase balancing; conversion from single to 3-phase; increasing distribution voltage levels, and changing pole configurations. 22 refs., 5 tabs., 13 figs.

  10. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  11. Peaking of world oil production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hirsch, R.L. (SAIC); Bezdek, Roger (MISI); Wendling, Robert (MISI)

    2005-02-01

    The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.... The purpose of this analysis was to identify the critical issues surrounding the occurrence and mitigation of world oil production peaking. We simplified many of the complexities in an effort to provide a transparent analysis. Nevertheless, our study is neither simple nor brief. We recognize that when oil prices escalate dramatically, there will be demand and economic impacts that will alter our simplified assumptions. Consideration of those feedbacks will be a daunting task but one that should be undertaken. Our aim in this study is to-- • Summarize the difficulties of oil production forecasting; • Identify the fundamentals that show why world oil production peaking is such a unique challenge; • Show why mitigation will take a decade or more of intense effort; • Examine the potential economic effects of oil peaking; • Describe what might be accomplished under three example mitigation scenarios. • Stimulate serious discussion of the problem, suggest more definitive studies, and engender interest in timely action to mitigate its impacts.

  12. Scenario development methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are a) Event tree analysis, b) Influence diagrams and c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs

  13. Mitigation Options in Forestry, Land-Use, Change and Biomass Burning in Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitigation options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester carbon in land use sectors are describe in some detail. The paper highlights those options in the forestry sector, which are more relevant to different parts of Africa. It briefly outlines a bottom-up methodological framework for comprehensively assessing mitigation options in land use sectors. This method emphasizes the application of end-use demand projections to construct a baseline and mitigation scenarios and explicitly addresses the carbon storage potential on land and in wood products, as well as use of wood to substitute for fossil fuels. Cost-effectiveness indicators for ranking mitigation options are proposed, including those, which account for non-carbon monetary benefits such as those derived from forest products, as well as opportunity cost of pursuing specific mitigation option. The paper finally surveys the likely policies, barriers and incentives to implement such mitigation options in African countries.; copyrighted ; Y

  14. Mitigation options in forestry, land-use change and biomass burning in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makundi, Willy R.L. [Univ. of California, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (United States)

    1998-10-01

    Mitigation options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester carbon in land use sectors are described in some detail. The paper highlights those options in the forestry sector, which are more relevant to different parts of Africa. It briefly outlines a bottom-up methodological framework for comprehensively assessing mitigation options in land use sectors. This method emphasizes the application of end-use demand projections to construct baseline and mitigation scenarios and explicitly addresses the carbon storage potential on land an in wood products, as well as use of wood to substitute for fossil fuels. Cost-effectiveness indicators for ranking mitigation options are proposed, including those which account for non-carbon monetary benefits such as those derived from forest products, as well as opportunity cost of pursuing specific mitigation option. The paper finally surveys the likely policies, barriers and incentives to implement such mitigation options in African countries. (au) 13 refs.

  15. Mitigation options in forestry, land-use change and biomass burning in Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitigation options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester carbon in land use sectors are described in some detail. The paper highlights those options in the forestry sector, which are more relevant to different parts of Africa. It briefly outlines a bottom-up methodological framework for comprehensively assessing mitigation options in land use sectors. This method emphasizes the application of end-use demand projections to construct baseline and mitigation scenarios and explicitly addresses the carbon storage potential on land an in wood products, as well as use of wood to substitute for fossil fuels. Cost-effectiveness indicators for ranking mitigation options are proposed, including those which account for non-carbon monetary benefits such as those derived from forest products, as well as opportunity cost of pursuing specific mitigation option. The paper finally surveys the likely policies, barriers and incentives to implement such mitigation options in African countries. (au) 13 refs

  16. Puerto Rico Tsunami Warning and Mitigation Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huerfano, V. A.; Mercado, A.; von Hillebrandt, C. G.

    2003-12-01

    tsunami scenarios on the basis of the parameters of potential underwater earthquakes were developed. Secondly, each of these earthquakes source scenarios was simulated. The third step was to determine the worst case scenario for a tectonically generated tsunami throughout Puerto Rico. The runups were drawn on GIS referenced topographic maps and aerial photographs. These products are being used by the local, state and federal emergency managers to educate the public and develop mitigation strategies. Based on these maps tsunami warning signs are being installed throughout the potentially affected zones and are a very important component of the TWS.

  17. Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

  18. Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

    2009-07-01

    Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

  19. RFI Mitigation for FAST

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Haiyan; Nan, Rendong; Gan, Hengqian; Yue, Youling; Wu, Mingchang; Zhang, Zhiwei; Jin, Chengjin; Peng, Bo

    2015-08-01

    Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical radio Telescope (FAST) is a Chinese mega-science project to build the largest single dish radio telescope in the world. The construction was officially commenced in March 2011. The first light of FAST is expected in 2016. Due to the high sensitivity of FAST, Radio Frequency Interference (RFI) mitigation for the telescope is required to assure the realization of the scientific goals. In order to protect the radio environment of FAST site, the local government has established a radio quiet zone with 30 km radius. Moreover, Electromagnetic Compatibility (EMC) designs and measurements for FAST have also been carried out, and some examples, such as EMC designs for actuator and focus cabin, have been introduced briefly.

  20. Space Debris & its Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaushal, Sourabh; Arora, Nishant

    2012-07-01

    Space debris has become a growing concern in recent years, since collisions at orbital velocities can be highly damaging to functioning satellites and can also produce even more space debris in the process. Some spacecraft, like the International Space Station, are now armored to deal with this hazard but armor and mitigation measures can be prohibitively costly when trying to protect satellites or human spaceflight vehicles like the shuttle. This paper describes the current orbital debris environment, outline its main sources, and identify mitigation measures to reduce orbital debris growth by controlling these sources. We studied the literature on the topic Space Debris. We have proposed some methods to solve this problem of space debris. We have also highlighted the shortcomings of already proposed methods by space experts and we have proposed some modification in those methods. Some of them can be very effective in the process of mitigation of space debris, but some of them need some modification. Recently proposed methods by space experts are maneuver, shielding of space elevator with the foil, vaporizing or redirecting of space debris back to earth with the help of laser, use of aerogel as a protective layer, construction of large junkyards around international space station, use of electrodynamics tether & the latest method proposed is the use of nano satellites in the clearing of the space debris. Limitations of the already proposed methods are as follows: - Maneuvering can't be the final solution to our problem as it is the act of self-defence. - Shielding can't be done on the parts like solar panels and optical devices. - Vaporizing or redirecting of space debris can affect the human life on earth if it is not done in proper manner. - Aerogel has a threshold limit up to which it can bear (resist) the impact of collision. - Large junkyards can be effective only for large sized debris. In this paper we propose: A. The Use of Nano Tubes by creating a mesh

  1. Mitigating Hardware Cyber-Security Risks in Error Correcting Decoders

    OpenAIRE

    Hemati, Saied

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates hardware cyber-security risks associated with channel decoders, which are commonly acquired as a black box in semiconductor industry. It is shown that channel decoders are potentially attractive targets for hardware cyber-security attacks and can be easily embedded with malicious blocks. Several attack scenarios are considered in this work and suitable methods for mitigating the risks are proposed. These methods are based on randomizing the inputs of the channel decode...

  2. Interference Mitigation Techniques for Clustered Multicell Joint Decoding Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Chatzinotas Symeon; Ottersten Björn

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Multicell joint processing has originated from information-theoretic principles as a means of reaching the fundamental capacity limits of cellular networks. However, global multicell joint decoding is highly complex and in practice clusters of cooperating Base Stations constitute a more realistic scenario. In this direction, the mitigation of intercluster interference rises as a critical factor towards achieving the promised throughput gains. In this paper, two intercluster interfere...

  3. Apparatus and Methods for Mitigating Electromagnetic Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geng, Steven M. (Inventor); Niedra, Janis M. (Inventor)

    2016-01-01

    Apparatus, methods, and other embodiments associated with mitigation of magnetic fields are described herein. In an embodiment, a method for mitigating an electromagnetic field includes positioning a mitigating coil around a linear alternator of linear motor so that the mitigating coil is coaxially located with an alternator coil; arranging the mitigating coil to generate a field to mitigate an electromagnetic field generated by the alternator coil; and passing an induced current from the alternator coil through the mitigating coil.

  4. LONG-TERM GLOBAL WATER USE PROJECTIONS USING SIX SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS IN AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING FRAMEWORK

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.; Moss, Richard H.; Kim, Son H.

    2014-01-19

    In this paper, we assess future water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors, by incorporating water demands into a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change – the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Base-year water demands—both gross withdrawals and net consumptive use—are assigned to specific modeled activities in a way that maximizes consistency between bottom-up estimates of water demand intensities of specific technologies and practices, and top-down regional and sectoral estimates of water use. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. We assess future water demands representing six socioeconomic scenarios, with no constraints imposed by future water supplies. The scenarios observe increases in global water withdrawals from 3,578 km3 year-1 in 2005 to 5,987 – 8,374 km3 year-1 in 2050, and to 4,719 – 12,290 km3 year-1 in 2095. Comparing the projected total regional water withdrawals to the historical supply of renewable freshwater, the Middle East exhibits the highest levels of water scarcity throughout the century, followed by India; water scarcity increases over time in both of these regions. In contrast, water scarcity improves in some regions with large base-year electric sector withdrawals, such as the USA and Canada, due to capital stock turnover and the almost complete phase-out of once-through flow cooling systems. The scenarios indicate that: 1) water is likely a limiting factor in climate change mitigation policies, 2) many regions can be expected to increase reliance on non-renewable groundwater, water reuse, and desalinated water, but they also

  5. Low carbon society scenario 2050 in Thai industrial sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Thai industrial sector has been modelled using AIM/Enduse model. • Potential mitigation of CO2 for 2050 is approximately 20% from Baseline scenario. • Abatement cost curves show that varied counter measures are practical in the industrial sector. • Energy security is enhanced due to CO2 mitigation in the LCS scenario. - Abstract: Energy plays a dominant role in determining the individual competitiveness of a country and this is more relevant to emerging economies. That being said, energy also plays an important and ever expanding role in carbon emissions and sustainability of the country. As a developing country Thailand’s industrial sector is vibrant and robust and consumes majority of the energy. In addition, it also has the highest CO2 emissions, provided the emissions of power generation are taken into account. Industry also accounts for the highest consumption of electricity in Thailand. The objective of this study is to model the Thai industrial energy sector and estimate the mitigation potential for the timeframe of 2010–2050 using the principles of Low Carbon Society (LCS). In addition, the paper would also evaluate emission tax as a key driver of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) mitigation along with Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) analysis. Another secondary objective is to analyse the impact of mitigation on energy security of the industrial sector. The Thai industrial sector was modelled using AIM/Enduse model, which is a recursive dynamic optimisation model belonging to the Asia–Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) family. Thai industrial sector was divided into nine sub-sectors based on national economic reporting procedures. Results suggest that the mitigation potential in 2050, compared to the Baseline scenario, is around 20% with positive impacts on energy security. The Baseline emission will approximately be 377 Mt-CO2 in the industrial sector. All four indicators of energy security, Primary Energy Intensity, Carbon Intensity, Oil Share

  6. Waste package scenario modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    UK Nirex has supported a programme of work to develop models describing the post-closure evolution of intermediate-level waste packages with the objectives of: - providing support and justification for the parameters and representations used in performance assessment models; - informing future model development and packaging advice. Scenarios for the potential evolution of a waste package were developed and modelled taking explicit account of waste package heterogeneity and the time-dependence of the physical and chemical characteristics of the system. The modelling work highlighted the treatment of organic complexants and the representation of physical containment as two areas in which the impacts of time dependence and package scale heterogeneity might be particularly significant. A subsequent study of the impact of organic complexants emphasised the importance of heterogeneity in package inventory in determining the radionuclide release from the near field. The degree of containment afforded by the wasteform and the waste container has been investigated as part of a study to develop a preliminary understanding of the mixing scales within the repository. The study suggests that the most important control on the release of radionuclides from the waste packages is the integrity of the waste encapsulation grout. Interactions between neighbouring packages are to be expected, but the degree to which homogeneous (well mixed) conditions develop may be limited in both time and space. (author)

  7. Quantifying the biophysical climate change mitigation potential of Canada's forest sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. E. Smyth

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The potential of forests and the forest sector to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG emissions is widely recognized, but challenging to quantify at a national scale. Forests and their carbon (C sequestration potential are affected by management practices, where wood harvesting transfers C out of the forest into products, and subsequent regrowth allows further C sequestration. Here we determine the mitigation potential of the 2.3 × 106 km2 of Canada's managed forests from 2015 to 2050 using the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3, a harvested wood products model that estimates emissions based on product half-life decay times, and an account of emission substitution benefits from the use of wood products and bioenergy. We examine several mitigation scenarios with different assumptions about forest management activity levels relative to a base-case scenario, including improved growth from silvicultural activities, increased harvest and residue management for bioenergy, and reduced harvest for conservation. We combine forest management options with two mitigation scenarios for harvested wood product use involving an increase in either long-lived products or bioenergy uses. Results demonstrate large differences among alternative scenarios, and we identify potential mitigation scenarios with increasing benefits to the atmosphere for many decades into the future, as well as scenarios with no net benefit over many decades. The greatest mitigation impact was achieved through a mix of strategies that varied across the country and had cumulative mitigation of 254 Tg CO2e in 2030, and 1180 Tg CO2e in 2050. We conclude that (i national-scale forest sector mitigation options need to be assessed rigorously from a systems perspective to avoid the development of policies that deliver no net benefits to the atmosphere, (ii a mix of strategies implemented across the country achieves the greatest mitigation impact, and (iii because of the time

  8. Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Gao, X.

    2012-12-01

    In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

  9. Global scenarios and trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The 21st century brings with it a number of disturbing challenges. They may even threaten to disrupt world order. Many agree the most critical and urgent challenge of all confronting human kind today is climate change. Global warming has reached a level which can trigger drastic shifts in world weather. There is convincing evidence to show that global warming is significantly attributed to mans own activities. If man is responsible for the warming of the planet, then only man can help stop global warming. Only man can reverse climate change. Climate change has the power to literally destruct the world. The adverse effects of global climate change are increasingly evident from the frequency and ferocity of natural disasters like the recent severe drought and flood in Queensland, Australia; the prolonged drought in East Africa; the destructive typhoon Nargis in Myanmar; the terrifying hurricane Katrina which brought New Orleans to its knees; the disastrous Mississippi flood and killer cyclones in USA and the out of season drought and flood in the Yangtze river basin. The list does not end there. Dr. R. K. Pachauri, Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in his lecture on 28 April 2011 at UNITEN, entitled Fukushima, Energy and Climate Change reaffirmed that the warming of the earths climate system is unequivocal. That climate change is mans common enemy is no longer in doubt. This is the reason why many see climate change as the single most important driver of the expanding global interest in green technology and a low carbon economy. (author)

  10. Scenarios of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article provides an overview of current and prospected climate changes, their causes and implied threats, and of a possible route to keep the changes within a tolerable level. The global mean temperature has up to 2005 risen by almost 0.8 C deg., and the change expected by 2100 is as large as glacial-interglacial changes in the past, which were commonly spread out over 10 000 years. As is well known, the principle actor is man-made CO2, which, together with other anthropogenic gases, enhances the atmosphere's greenhouse effect. The only man-made cooling agent appears to be atmospheric aerosols. Atmospheric CO2 has now reached levels unprecedented during the past several million years. Principal threats are a greatly reduced biodiversity (species extinction), changes in the atmospheric precipitation pattern, more frequent weather extremes, and not the least, sea level rise. The expected precipitation pattern will enhance water scarcity in and around regions that suffer from water shortage already, affecting many countries. Sea level rise will act on a longer time scale. It is expected to amount to more than 50 cm by 2100, and over the coming centuries the potential rise is of the order of 10 m. A global-mean temperature increase of 2 C deg. is often quoted as a safe limit, beyond which irreversible effects must be expected. To achieve that limit, a major, rapid, and coordinated international effort will be needed. Up to the year 2050, the man-made CO2 releases must be reduced by at least 50%. This must be accompanied by a complete overhaul of the global energy supply toward depending increasingly on the Sun's supply of energy, both directly and in converted form, such as wind energy. Much of the information and insight available today has been generated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in particular its Fourth Assessment Report of 2007, which greatly advanced both public attention and political action. (author)

  11. The influence of accident measures on accident scenarios for VVER-1000-Type reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For VVER-1000-type reactors severe accident scenarios and possible mitigation strategies are investigated. The Station blackout sequence is chosen as reference case. At first a comparison between the cases with and without working spray systems is discussed. Afterwards the results of a parametric study investigating the influence of different water volumes on the course of the accident are presented. It can be shown that most of these accident mitigation measures will maintain the containment integrity and reduce the source term. (author)

  12. Creating Scenarios for Seismic Risk Reduction Using Geographic Information Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin Leon

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a GIS-based methodology for monitoring the seismic performance, while taking into account the deteriorations revealed during GIS-based scenarios aiming at the identification of the seismic serviceability of the structure. By applying the geographical information system (GIS containing geo-spatial data, one can develop useful scenarios to improve the knowledge of structural vulnerability of the urban built infrastructure. Scenarios of modelling, simulation and non-linear seismic analysis are described and applied to a class of damaged models for some of the structures typical of the existing urban infrastructure of Jassy, Romania. The management of GIS-based seismic vulnerability of existing concrete structure is presented as a tool for awareness and mitigation of seismic effects of possible future events in the urban area.

  13. A Methodology For Flood Vulnerability Analysis In Complex Flood Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueiredo, R.; Martina, M. L. V.; Dottori, F.

    2015-12-01

    Nowadays, flood risk management is gaining importance in order to mitigate and prevent flood disasters, and consequently the analysis of flood vulnerability is becoming a key research topic. In this paper, we propose a methodology for large-scale analysis of flood vulnerability. The methodology is based on a GIS-based index, which considers local topography, terrain roughness and basic information about the flood scenario to reproduce the diffusive behaviour of floodplain flow. The methodology synthetizes the spatial distribution of index values into maps and curves, used to represent the vulnerability in the area of interest. Its application allows for considering different levels of complexity of flood scenarios, from localized flood defence failures to complex hazard scenarios involving river reaches. The components of the methodology are applied and tested in two floodplain areas in Northern Italy recently affected by floods. The results show that the methodology can provide an original and valuable insight of flood vulnerability variables and processes.

  14. Toward to Disaster Mitigation Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneda, Yoshiyuki; Shiraki, Wataru; Tokozakura, Eiji

    2016-04-01

    Destructive natural disasters such as earthquakes and tsunamis have occurred frequently in the world. For the reduction and mitigation of damages by destructive natural disasters, early detection of natural disasters and speedy and proper evacuations are indispensable. And hardware and software preparations for reduction and mitigation of natural disasters are quite important and significant. Finally, methods on restorations and revivals are necessary after natural disasters. We would like to propose natural disaster mitigation science for early detections, evacuations and restorations against destructive natural disasters. In natural disaster mitigation science, there are lots of research fields such as natural science, engineering, medical treatment, social science and literature/art etc. Especially, natural science, engineering and medical treatment are fundamental research fields for natural disaster mitigation, but social sciences such as sociology, psychology etc. are very important research fields for restorations after natural disasters. We have to progress the natural disaster mitigation science against destructive natural disaster mitigation. in the near future. We will present the details of natural disaster mitigation science.

  15. Climate adaptation as mitigation: the case of agricultural investments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobell, David B.; Baldos, Uris Lantz C.; Hertel, Thomas W.

    2013-03-01

    Successful adaptation of agriculture to ongoing climate changes would help to maintain productivity growth and thereby reduce pressure to bring new lands into agriculture. In this paper we investigate the potential co-benefits of adaptation in terms of the avoided emissions from land use change. A model of global agricultural trade and land use, called SIMPLE, is utilized to link adaptation investments, yield growth rates, land conversion rates, and land use emissions. A scenario of global adaptation to offset negative yield impacts of temperature and precipitation changes to 2050, which requires a cumulative 225 billion USD of additional investment, results in 61 Mha less conversion of cropland and 15 Gt carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) fewer emissions by 2050. Thus our estimates imply an annual mitigation co-benefit of 0.35 GtCO2e yr-1 while spending 15 per tonne CO2e of avoided emissions. Uncertainty analysis is used to estimate a 5-95% confidence interval around these numbers of 0.25-0.43 Gt and 11-22 per tonne CO2e. A scenario of adaptation focused only on Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, while less costly in aggregate, results in much smaller mitigation potentials and higher per tonne costs. These results indicate that although investing in the least developed areas may be most desirable for the main objectives of adaptation, it has little net effect on mitigation because production gains are offset by greater rates of land clearing in the benefited regions, which are relatively low yielding and land abundant. Adaptation investments in high yielding, land scarce regions such as Asia and North America are more effective for mitigation. To identify data needs, we conduct a sensitivity analysis using the Morris method (Morris 1991 Technometrics 33 161-74). The three most critical parameters for improving estimates of mitigation potential are (in descending order) the emissions factors for converting land to agriculture, the price elasticity of land supply

  16. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  17. NATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS - SCENARIOS FOR ROMANIA

    OpenAIRE

    Herciu, Mihaela

    2012-01-01

    Competitiveness remains a continuous concern of nations in any stage of development, from factor based economy to innovation based economy. The present paper aims to emphasize the current level of national competitiveness of Romania, on one hand, and to identify possible ways to improve the current level by building scenarios in order to eliminate the uncertainty, on the other hand. The paper proposes four scenarios for increase GCI (growth competitiveness index) and four scenarios from pessi...

  18. Scenario Planning and Nanotechnological Futures

    OpenAIRE

    Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

    2008-01-01

    Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision-making by experts and political leaders becomes po...

  19. Low carbon society scenario analysis of transport sector of an emerging economy—The AIM/Enduse modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The transport sector of a country is the backbone driving the economy forward. Thailand’s land transport sector is modelled using the AIM/Enduse, which is a recursive dynamic optimization model, based on bottom-up modelling principle. The travel demand is divided into two major categories which are passenger travel and freight travel. The objective of this paper is to analyse the mitigation possible through low carbon society (LCS) measures and emission tax (ET). Two scenario clusters are devised along with the BAU case. The LCS scenario cluster has three designed scenarios which are LCS-L, LCS-M and LCS-H. The emission tax (ET) cluster has four scenarios, where the taxes of 50, 100, 200 and 500 USD/t-CO2 are implemented. Along with this the marginal abatement costs (MAC) of the counter-measures (CMs) and the co-benefits in terms of energy security, productivity and air pollutant mitigation are also assessed. Results show that LCS scenarios are possible of mitigating up to 1230 Mt-CO2 cumulatively, from 2010 to 2050. In terms of MACs, new vehicles play a pivotal role, along with hybrid vehicles. The Average Abatement Cost (AAC) assessment shows that the AAC of LCS-H scenario is in the order of 100 USD/t-CO2. All the LCS and ET scenarios show an enhancement in energy security and also a threefold increase in productivity. There is distinct mitigation in terms of air pollutants from the transport sector as well. -- Highlights: •Thailand transport sector has been modelled using AIM/Enduse model. •Potential cumulative mitigation of CO2 during 2010–2050 is approximately 30% when compared the BAU scenario. •Abatement cost curves show that various counter measures are practical in the transport sector. •Energy security is enhanced due to CO2 mitigation in the LCS scenario

  20. Radiative forcing and climate response to projected 21st century aerosol decreases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westervelt, D. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Golaz, J.-C.; Mauzerall, D. L.

    2015-11-01

    It is widely expected that global emissions of atmospheric aerosols and their precursors will decrease strongly throughout the remainder of the 21st century, due to emission reduction policies enacted to protect human health. For instance, global emissions of aerosols and their precursors are projected to decrease by as much as 80 % by the year 2100, according to the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The removal of aerosols will cause unintended climate consequences, including an unmasking of global warming from long-lived greenhouse gases. We use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Climate Model version 3 (GFDL CM3) to simulate future climate over the 21st century with and without the aerosol emission changes projected by each of the RCPs in order to isolate the radiative forcing and climate response resulting from the aerosol reductions. We find that the projected global radiative forcing and climate response due to aerosol decreases do not vary significantly across the four RCPs by 2100, although there is some mid-century variation, especially in cloud droplet effective radius, that closely follows the RCP emissions and energy consumption projections. Up to 1 W m-2 of radiative forcing may be unmasked globally from 2005 to 2100 due to reductions in aerosol and precursor emissions, leading to average global temperature increases up to 1 K and global precipitation rate increases up to 0.09 mm day-1. However, when using a version of CM3 with reduced present-day aerosol radiative forcing (-1.0 W m-2), the global temperature increase for RCP8.5 is about 0.5 K, with similar magnitude decreases in other climate response parameters as well. Regionally and locally, climate impacts can be much larger than the global mean, with a 2.1 K warming projected over China, Japan, and Korea due to the reduced aerosol emissions in RCP8.5, as well as nearly a 0.2 mm day-1 precipitation increase, a 7 g m-2 LWP decrease, and a 2 μm increase in

  1. Radiative forcing and climate response to projected 21st century aerosol decreases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. M. Westervelt

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available It is widely expected that global emissions of atmospheric aerosols and their precursors will decrease strongly throughout the remainder of the 21st century, due to emission reduction policies enacted to protect human health. For instance, global emissions of aerosols and their precursors are projected to decrease by as much as 80% by the year 2100, according to the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP scenarios. The removal of aerosols will cause unintended climate consequences, including an unmasking of global warming from long-lived greenhouse gases. We use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 3 (GFDL CM3 to simulate future climate over the 21st century with and without the aerosol emission changes projected by each of the RCPs in order to isolate the radiative forcing and climate response resulting from the aerosol reductions. We find that the projected global radiative forcing and climate response due to aerosol decreases do not vary significantly across the four RCPs by 2100, although there is some mid-century variation, especially in cloud droplet effective radius, that closely follows the RCP emissions and energy consumption projections. Up to 1 W m−2 of radiative forcing may be unmasked globally from 2005 to 2100 due to reductions in aerosol and precursor emissions, leading to average global temperature increases up to 1 K and global precipitation rate increases up to 0.09 mm d−1. Regionally and locally, climate impacts can be much larger, with a 2.1 K warming projected over China, Japan, and Korea due to the reduced aerosol emissions in RCP8.5, as well as nearly a 0.2 mm d−1 precipitation increase, a 7 g m−2 LWP decrease, and a 2 μm increase in cloud droplet effective radius. Future aerosol decreases could be responsible for 30–40% of total climate warming by 2100 in East Asia, even under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP8.5. The expected unmasking of global warming caused

  2. AGRICULTURE DISEASE MITIGATION SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sion Hannuna

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Around 52% of the population of India rely on farming for their livelihood which accounts for 17% of India’s GDP. Whilst most farmers are familiar with conventional farming practices, they are often ill positioned to promptly deal with diseases and plant infestations affecting their crops. Current advisory systems tend to be generic and are not tailored to specific plots or farms. This work comprises an agriculture advisory call center similar to a modern call center to provide an agriculture disease mitigation system. The information regarding an individual farm is collected using mobile phones. The image of diseased/infected crop is also captured using mobile phones and is made available to the expert to provide the advisory. To scale the advisory, an attempt is also made to automate the disease recognition process using image processing. Unfortunately, the photos taken will be sensitive to a number of factors including camera type and lighting incident on the scene. Ideally, the images would be processed in such a way as to provide the expert with a visual representation of the affected crops that reflects the true nature of the scene. We describe a framework for standardising the colour of plant images taken using both mobile phones and compact cameras within the context of the advisory system.

  3. Mitigation analysis for Estonia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martins, A.; Roos, J.; Pesur, A. [Inst. of Energy Research, Tallinn (Estonia)] [and others

    1996-09-01

    The present report provides data on the mitigation analysis of Estonia. The results for energy, forest and agricultural sectors and macro-economic analysis are given. The Government of Estonia has identified the development of energy production as the main strategical means in the movement towards market economy. Now 99% of electricity generation and about 25% of heat production in Estonia is based on oil shale combustion. To increase the efficiency of oil shale-fired power plants and decrease CO{sub 2} emissions, the State Enterprise (SE) Eesti Energia (Estonian Energy) is planning to reconstruct these power plants and introduce the Circulating Fluidized Bed (CFB) combustion technology for oil shale burning to replace the Pulverized Combustion (PC). According to the Estonian Forest Policy, two general objectives are of importance: sustainability in forestry and efficiency in forest management. For the reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions from agriculture, it is necessary to increase the efficiency of production resource usage. The growth of the GDP in 1995 was 2.9% as a result of large-scale privatization activities in Estonia and re-introduction of the available, but unused production capacities with the help of foreign and domestic investments. It is assumed that the medium growth rate of GDP reaches 6% in 1998.

  4. The greenhouse effect century, myth or reality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The different scenarios describing the human activities evolution in the next decades allow to assess the future climate system components; it is shown that, if we do not modify our development policy (deforestation and desertification), the earth system will be significantly perturbed during the 21st century; emissions of greenhouse gases such as CH4, N2O, CFC, ozone may represent in 2030 the CO2 amount produced by man since the industrial revolution. In that case, the air temperature increase will be comprised between 1.5 and 4.5 deg C in 2050

  5. Which energy for the 21 century transports

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    With more than 95% of the energy consumption realized by the petroleum, the transportation sector represents 20% of the world energy consumption. How will be assure the energy need of this sector for the 21 century? How control the greenhouse gases emissions and in particular the CO2 by the control of the transportation sector? This paper aims to answer the first question taking into account the bond second one. It analyzes the today situation and scenario for 2020 and 2050, the possible substitution fuels, the hybrid vehicles, the hydrogen fuel and the electric power vehicles. (A.L.B.)

  6. Disruption mitigation using high pressure gas jets. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The goal of this research is to establish credible disruption mitigation scenarios based on the technique of massive gas injection. Disruption mitigation seeks to minimize or eliminate damage to internal components that can occur due to the rapid dissipation of thermal and magnetic energy during a tokamak disruption. In particular, the focus of present research is extrapolating mitigation techniques to burning plasma experiments such as ITER, where disruption-caused damage poses a serious threat to the lifetime of internal vessel components. A majority of effort has focused on national and international collaborative research with large tokamaks: DIII-D, Alcator C-Mod, JET, and ASDEX Upgrade. The research was oriented towards empirical trials of gas-jet mitigation on several tokamaks, with the goal of developing and applying cohesive models to the data across devices. Disruption mitigation using gas jet injection has proven to be a viable candidate for avoiding or minimizing damage to internal components in burning plasma experiments like ITER. The physics understanding is progress towards a technological design for the required gas injection system in ITER.

  7. Trade of Woody Biomass for Electricity Generation under Climate Mitigation Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Favero, Alice; Massetti, Emanuele

    2013-01-01

    Bio-energy has the potential to be a key mitigation option if combined with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS) because it generates electricity and absorbs emissions at the same time. However, biomass is not distributed evenly across the globe, and regions with a potentially high demand might be constrained by limited domestic supply. Therefore, climate mitigation policies might create the incentive to trade biomass internationally. This paper uses scenarios generated by the integrated ...

  8. Complex spatiotemporal responses of global terrestrial primary production to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 in the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Shufen; Tian, Hanqin; Dangal, Shree R S; Zhang, Chi; Yang, Jia; Tao, Bo; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Wang, Xiaoke; Lu, Chaoqun; Ren, Wei; Banger, Kamaljit; Yang, Qichun; Zhang, Bowen; Li, Xia

    2014-01-01

    Quantitative information on the response of global terrestrial net primary production (NPP) to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 is essential for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the 21st century. Using a process-based ecosystem model (the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, DLEM), we quantified the magnitude and spatiotemporal variations of contemporary (2000s) global NPP, and projected its potential responses to climate and CO2 changes in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We estimated a global terrestrial NPP of 54.6 (52.8-56.4) PgC yr(-1) as a result of multiple factors during 2000-2009. Climate change would either reduce global NPP (4.6%) under the A2 scenario or slightly enhance NPP (2.2%) under the B1 scenario during 2010-2099. In response to climate change, global NPP would first increase until surface air temperature increases by 1.5 °C (until the 2030s) and then level-off or decline after it increases by more than 1.5 °C (after the 2030s). This result supports the Copenhagen Accord Acknowledgement, which states that staying below 2 °C may not be sufficient and the need to potentially aim for staying below 1.5 °C. The CO2 fertilization effect would result in a 12%-13.9% increase in global NPP during the 21st century. The relative CO2 fertilization effect, i.e. change in NPP on per CO2 (ppm) bases, is projected to first increase quickly then level off in the 2070s and even decline by the end of the 2080s, possibly due to CO2 saturation and nutrient limitation. Terrestrial NPP responses to climate change and elevated atmospheric CO2 largely varied among biomes, with the largest increases in the tundra and boreal needleleaf deciduous forest. Compared to the low emission scenario (B1), the high emission scenario (A2) would lead to larger spatiotemporal variations in NPP, and more dramatic and counteracting impacts from climate and increasing

  9. Scenarios for the environmental impact of fossil fuel power: Co-benefits and trade-offs of carbon capture and storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study uses a hybrid Life Cycle Assessment approach to evaluate the environmental impacts of large-scale deployment of Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) in coal and natural gas based electricity generation, based on IEA scenarios. For the Baseline scenario, all impact categories would increase 2–3-fold in 2050 from 2005 levels. Green House Gas (GHG) emissions are found to decrease by ∼40% in ACTmap scenario and by ∼75% in more CCS-intensive BLUEmap scenario. These climate mitigation scenarios also show significantly reduced impacts of acidification, particulate matter formation and human toxicity, suggesting the existence of co-benefits. For eutrophication, all scenarios indicate substantial increases, but the increases are largest in the Baseline scenario. For photochemical oxidant formation, only the mitigation scenarios manage to stabilize this impact from fossil fuel based power production. This study does not assess the impact of alternative power generation or energy efficiency technology that replaces part of the fossil fuel power in the mitigation scenarios. -- Highlights: ► We perform Life Cycle Assessment of IEA scenarios for fossil fuel power and CCS. ► Used LCA framework incorporates future technical developments and CCS diffusion. ► Significant impact reductions in CCS scenarios compared to Baseline 2050. ► Compared to 2005, modest non-GWP impact reductions in CCS scenarios. ► GWP intensity of fossil fuel power declines by 65 80% in CCS scenarios.

  10. Mitigating climate change: Decomposing the relative roles of energy conservation, technological change, and structural shift

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We decompose the contribution of five drivers of energy use and CO2 emissions reductions in achieving climate change goals over 2005–2100 for various climate policy scenarios. This study contributes to the decomposition literature in three ways. First, it disaggregates drivers of energy demand into technological progress and demand for energy services, represented in terms of useful energy, allowing us to estimate their contributions independently — an improvement over other economy-wide decomposition studies. Secondly, this approach reduces the ambiguity present in many previous measures of structural change. We delineate structural shifts into two separate measures: changes in fuel mix within a given resource or service pathway; and changes in mix among distinct energy resources or end-use services. Finally, this study applies decomposition methods to energy and emission trajectories from two mutually informing perspectives: (i) primary energy resources — crude oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, and renewables; and (ii) end-uses of energy services — residential and commercial buildings, industry, and transportation. Our results show that technological improvements and energy conservation are important in meeting climate goals in the first half of the coming century; and that nuclear and renewable energy and CCS technology are crucial in meeting more stringent goals in the second half of the century. We examine the relative roles of the drivers in reducing CO2 emissions separately for developed and developing regions. Although the majority of energy and emission growth – and by extension the greatest opportunities for mitigation – will occur in developing countries, the decomposition shows that the relative roles of the five drivers are broadly consistent between these two regions. - Highlights: • We decompose the contribution of five drivers of energy use and CO2 emissions reductions in achieving climate change goals • We analyze differences across

  11. Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchholtz, Mikael

    The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many...

  12. Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lene

    2004-01-01

    design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate a...

  13. Channel Shallowing as Mitigation of Coastal Flooding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip M. Orton

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Here, we demonstrate that reductions in the depth of inlets or estuary channels can be used to reduce or prevent coastal flooding. A validated hydrodynamic model of Jamaica Bay, New York City (NYC, is used to test nature-based adaptation measures in ameliorating flooding for NYC's two largest historical coastal flood events. In addition to control runs with modern bathymetry, three altered landscape scenarios are tested: (1 increasing the area of wetlands to their 1879 footprint and bathymetry, but leaving deep shipping channels unaltered; (2 shallowing all areas deeper than 2 m in the bay to be 2 m below Mean Low Water; (3 shallowing only the narrowest part of the inlet to the bay. These three scenarios are deliberately extreme and designed to evaluate the leverage each approach exerts on water levels. They result in peak water level reductions of 0.3%, 15%, and 6.8% for Hurricane Sandy, and 2.4%, 46% and 30% for the Category-3 hurricane of 1821, respectively (bay-wide averages. These results suggest that shallowing can provide greater flood protection than wetland restoration, and it is particularly effective at reducing "fast-pulse" storm surges that rise and fall quickly over several hours, like that of the 1821 storm. Nonetheless, the goal of flood mitigation must be weighed against economic, navigation, and ecological needs, and practical concerns such as the availability of sediment.

  14. Lunar Dust Mitigation Screens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knutson, Shawn; Holloway, Nancy

    With plans for the United States to return to the moon, and establish a sustainable human presence on the lunar surface many issues must be successfully overcome. Lunar dust is one of a number of issues with the potential to create a myriad of problems if not adequately addressed. Samples of dust brought back from Apollo missions show it to be soft, yet sharp and abrasive. The dust consists of a variety of morphologies including spherical, angular blocks, shards, and a number of irregular shapes. One of the main issues with lunar dust is its attraction to stick to anything it comes in contact with (i.e. astronauts, equipment, habitats, etc.). Ionized radiation from the sun strikes the moon's surface and creates an electrostatic charge on the dust. Further, the dust harbors van der Waals forces making it especially difficult to separate once it sticks to a surface. During the Apollo missions, it was discovered that trying to brush the lunar dust from spacesuits was not effective, and rubbing it caused degradation of the suit material. Further, when entering the lunar module after moonwalks, the astronauts noted that the dust was so prolific inside the cabin that they inhaled and ingested it, causing at least one of them, Harrison "Jack" Schmidt, to report irritation of the throat and lungs. It is speculated that the dust could also harm an astronaut's nervous and cardiovascular systems, especially during an extended stay. In addition to health issues, the dust can also cause problems by scouring reflective coatings off of thermal blankets, and roughening surfaces of windows and optics. Further, panels on solar cells and photovoltaics can also be compromised due to dust sticking on the surfaces. Lunar dust has the capacity to penetrate seals, interfere with connectors, as well as mechanisms on digging machines, all of which can lead to problems and failure. To address lunar dust issues, development of electrostatic screens to mitigate dust on sur-faces is currently

  15. Regional climate change mitigation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this paper is to explore some of the key methodological issues that arise from an analysis of regional climate change mitigation options. The rationale for any analysis of regional mitigation activities, emphasising both the theoretical attractiveness and the existing political encouragement and the methodology that has been developed are reviewed. The differences arising from the fact that mitigation analyses have been taken from the level of the national - where the majority of the work has been completed to date - to the level of the international - that is, the 'regional' - will be especially highlighted. (EG)

  16. Regional climate change mitigation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rowlands, Ian H. [UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment, and Univ. of Waterloo (Canada)

    1998-10-01

    The purpose of this paper is to explore some of the key methodological issues that arise from an analysis of regional climate change mitigation options. The rationale for any analysis of regional mitigation activities, emphasising both the theoretical attractiveness and the existing political encouragement and the methodology that has been developed are reviewed. The differences arising from the fact that mitigation analyses have been taken from the level of the national - where the majority of the work has been completed to date - to the level of the international - that is, the `regional` - will be especially highlighted. (EG)

  17. Boreal snow cover variations induced by aerosol emissions in the middle of the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ménégoz

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We used a coupled climate-chemistry model to quantify the impacts of aerosols on snow cover both for the present-day and for the middle of the 21st century. Black carbon (BC deposition over continents induces a reduction in the Mean Number of Days With Snow at the Surface (MNDWS that ranges from 0 to 10 days over large areas of Eurasia and Northern America for the present-day relative to the pre-industrial period. This is mainly due to BC deposition during the spring, a period of the year when the remaining of snow accumulated during the winter is exposed to both strong solar radiation and large amount of aerosol deposition induced themselves by a high level of transport of particles from polluted areas. North of 30° N, this deposition flux represents 222 Gg BC month−1 on average from April to June in our simulation. A large reduction in BC emissions is expected in the future in the Radiative Concentration Pathway (RCP scenarios. Considering this scenario in our simulation leads to a decrease in the spring BC deposition down to 110 Gg month−1 in the 2050s in the RCP8.5 scenario. However, despite the reduction of the aerosol impact on snow, the MNDWS is strongly reduced by 2050, with a decrease ranging from 10 to 100 days from pre-industrial values over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. This reduction is essentially due to temperature increase, which is quite strong in the RCP8.5 scenario in the absence of climate mitigation policies. Moreover, the projected sea-ice retreat in the next decades will open new routes for shipping in the Arctic. However, a large increase in shipping emissions in the Arctic by the mid 21st century does not lead to significant changes of BC deposition over snow-covered areas in our simulation. Therefore, the MNDWS is clearly not affected through snow darkening effects associated to these Arctic ship emissions. In an experiment without nudging toward atmospheric reanalyses, we simulated

  18. Energy scenarios: a prospective outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A set of articles discusses the use of energy scenarios: how useful they can be to describe a possible future and even to gather the involved actors, how they have been used in France in the past (for planning or prediction purposes, with sometimes some over-assessed or contradictory results, without considering any decline of nuclear energy, or by setting an impossible equation in the case of the Grenelle de l'Environnement), how the scenario framework impacts its content (depending on the approach type: standard, optimization, bottom-up, top-down, or hybrid). It also discusses the issue of choice of hypotheses on growth-based and de-growth-based scenarios, outlines how energy saving is a key for a sustainable evolution. Two German scenarios regarding electricity production (centralisation or decentralisation) and French regional scenarios for Nord-Pas-de-Calais are then briefly discussed

  19. 20th and 21st Century Climate Simulations and Projections in Central Africa by CMIP5 Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aloysius, N. R.; Saiers, J. E.; Sheffield, J.

    2013-12-01

    Global and regional climate change assessments rely heavily on the Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs provided by the IPCC's Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). In this study, we evaluate the ability of 25 GCMs to simulate historical precipitation and near surface temperature fields in Central Africa, apply a quantile-mapping based bias correction to monthly climate fields, and develop three-hourly, daily, and monthly bias-corrected fields for the period 1948-2099. The dataset, at 1.0o latitude/longitude horizontal resolution, is constructed by combining a suite of global observation and reanalysis based monthly and three-hourly data, monthly GCM simulations for the twentieth century, and twenty-first century projections for the IPCC medium mitigation (RCP45) and high emission (RCP85) scenarios. The GCMs simulate historical temperature better than precipitation, but substantial spatial heterogeneity exists among models. Many models show limited skill in simulating the seasonal evolution of present day precipitation, but none of them reveal changes in the seasonality in the future at monthly scale. We present the comparison of historical model performance by individual GCMs as well as several combinations of multimodel ensemble averages. Our results do not reveal any improvement in model performance between high- and low-resolution GCMs during the historical period. But, the multimodel averages of better performing models show greater skills in reproducing the historical climate over randomly selected GCM averages in Central Africa. Our analyses also show that the choice of GCM and emission scenario will dominate the uncertainty in climate change projections. Although our analyses are done for the Central African region, the final dataset is available for global land areas, which will be useful for a variety of climate impact, assessment, and adaptation studies.

  20. Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Energy scenarios for PAREST. Sub-report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the research project PAREST emission scenarios to 2020 for particulate matter (PM10 und PM2,5), and aerosol precursors SO2, NOx, NH3 and NMVOC were prepared for Germany and Europe, mitigation measures evaluated and the results used to model the PM pollution load for Germany. In this part of the report to PAREST energy scenarios used for PAREST are presented.

  1. Can fusion help to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamacher, T. E-mail: hamacher@ipp.mpg.de; Lako, P.; Ybema, J.R.; Korhonen, R.; Aquilonius, K.; Cabal, H.; Hallberg, B.; Lechon, Y.; Lepicard, S.; Saez, R.M.; Schneider, T.; Ward, D

    2001-11-01

    If measures to reduce greenhouse gas-emissions are taken and if fission will be phased out at the beginning of the 22nd century fusion has a good chance to win considerable shares of the electricity market. A detailed model of the Western-European energy system was made using the MARKAL toolkit. Scenarios were designed to understand the conditions that would make fusion a viable electricity production technique. Globally it is very likely that at least the first half of the 21st century will still be dominated by the use of fossil fuels, with a shift away from oil to natural gas. Energy and electricity demand are likely to increase over the complete 21st century.

  2. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

    2016-08-01

    The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 μg m-3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere's near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth's surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m-2. This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR's CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed

  3. Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, A.

    2010-12-01

    The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self

  4. The African contribution to the global climate-carbon cycle feedback of the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedlingstein, P.; Cadule, P.; Piao, S. L.; Ciais, P.; Sitch, S.

    2008-12-01

    Future climate change will have impact on global and regional terrestrial carbon balances. The fate of African tropical forests over the 21st century has been investigated through global coupled climate carbon cycle model simulations. Under the SRES-A2 socio-economic CO2 emission scenario of the IPCC, and using the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace coupled ocean-terrestrial carbon cycle and climate model, IPSL-CM4-LOOP, we found that the warming over African ecosystems induces a reduction of net ecosystem productivity, making a 20% contribution to the global climate-carbon cycle positive feedback. However, the African rainforest ecosystem alone makes only a negligible contribution to the overall feedback, much smaller than the one arising from the Amazon forest. This is first because of the two times smaller area of forest in Africa, but also because of the relatively lower local land carbon cycle sensitivity to climate change. This beneficial role of African forests in mitigating future climate change should be taken into account when designing forest conservation policy.

  5. Climate Change and Aedes Vectors: 21st Century Projections for Dengue Transmission in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu-Helmersson, Jing; Quam, Mikkel; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Stenlund, Hans; Ebi, Kristie; Massad, Eduardo; Rocklöv, Joacim

    2016-05-01

    Warming temperatures may increase the geographic spread of vector-borne diseases into temperate areas. Although a tropical mosquito-borne viral disease, a dengue outbreak occurred in Madeira, Portugal, in 2012; the first in Europe since 1920s. This outbreak emphasizes the potential for dengue re-emergence in Europe given changing climates. We present estimates of dengue epidemic potential using vectorial capacity (VC) based on historic and projected temperature (1901-2099). VC indicates the vectors' ability to spread disease among humans. We calculated temperature-dependent VC for Europe, highlighting 10 European cities and three non-European reference cities. Compared with the tropics, Europe shows pronounced seasonality and geographical heterogeneity. Although low, VC during summer is currently sufficient for dengue outbreaks in Southern Europe to commence-if sufficient vector populations (either Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus) were active and virus were introduced. Under various climate change scenarios, the seasonal peak and time window for dengue epidemic potential increases during the 21st century. Our study maps dengue epidemic potential in Europe and identifies seasonal time windows when major cities are most conducive for dengue transmission from 1901 to 2099. Our findings illustrate, that besides vector control, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions crucially reduces the future epidemic potential of dengue in Europe. PMID:27322480

  6. Surface System Dust Mitigation Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed effort will perform a detailed examination of dust mitigation and tolerance strategies for connections and mechanisms to be employed on the lunar...

  7. Methods of Mitigating Double Taxation

    OpenAIRE

    Lindhe, Tobias

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents a comprehensive overview of existing methods of mitigating double taxation of corporate income within a standard cost of capital model. Two of the most well-known and most utilized methods, the imputation and the split rate systems, do not mitigate double taxation in corporations where the marginal investment is financed with retained earnings. However, all methods are effective when the marginal investment is financed with new share issues. The corporate tax rate, fiscal ...

  8. The effect of climate change, population distribution, and climate mitigation on building energy use in the U.S. and China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Yuyu; Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.

    2013-08-01

    A changing climate will affect the energy system in a number of ways, one of which is through changes in demands for heating and cooling in buildings. Understanding the potential effect of climate on heating and cooling demands must take into account not only the manner in which the building sector might evolve over time - including, for example, movements from rural to urban environments in developing countries - but also important uncertainty about the nature of climate change itself and the growth and movements of populations over time. In this study, we explored the uncertainty in climate change impacts on heating and cooling by constructing estimates of heating and cooling degree days for both a reference (no-policy) scenario and a climate mitigation scenario built from 0.5 degree latitude by 0.5 degree longitude resolution output from three different Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three gridded scenarios of population distribution. The implications that changing climate and population distribution might have for building energy consumption in the U.S. and China were then explored by using the heating and cooling degree days results as inputs to a detailed, building energy model, nested in the long-term global integrated assessment framework, Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Across the climate models and population distribution scenarios, the results indicate that unabated climate change would cause total final energy consumption to decrease modestly in both U.S. and China buildings by the end of the century, as decreased heating consumption is more than balanced by increased cooling using primarily electricity. However, the results also indicate that when indirect emissions from the power sector are also taken into account, climate change may have negligible effect on building sector CO2 emissions in the two countries. The variation in results due to variation of population distribution is noticeably smaller than variation due to the use of different

  9. Projections of 21st Century African Climate: Implications for African Savanna Fire Dynamics, Human Health and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adegoke, J. O.

    2015-12-01

    Fire is a key agent of change in the African savannas, which are shaped through the complex interactions between trees, C4 grasses, rainfall, temperature, CO2 and fire. These fires and their emitted smoke can have numerous direct and indirect effects on the environment, water resources, air quality, and climate. For instance, veld fires in southern Africa cause large financial losses to agriculture, livestock production and forestry on an annual basis. This study contributes to our understanding of the implications of projected surface temperature evolution in Africa for fire risk, human health and agriculture over the coming decades. We use an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations of African climate for the 21st century. Regional dowscalings and recent global circulation model projections obtained for Africa indicate that African temperatures are likely to rise at 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the tropics, and at almost twice the global rate of increase in the subtropics. Warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with increases of 4-6 °C over the subtropics and 3-5 °C over the tropics plausible by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (low mitigation) scenario. We explore the significance of the projected warming by documenting increases in projected high fire danger days and heat-wave days. General drying is projected across the continent, even for areas (e.g. tropical Africa) where an increase in rainfall is plausible. This is due to the drastic increases in temperature that are projected, which leads to drier soils (through enhanced evaporation) despite the rainfall increases. This will likely impact negatively on crop yield, particularly on the maize crop that is of crucial importance in terms of African food security.

  10. Megacity ozone air quality under four alternative future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. M. Butler

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The impact of the megacities of the world on global tropospheric ozone, and conversely, the extent to which megacities are influenced by emissions of ozone precursors from outside of the megacities is examined under the four alternative RCP ("Representative Concentration Pathway" emissions scenarios. Despite accounting for about 6% of present-day anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursor species, the contribution of emissions from megacities to global tropospheric ozone is calculated to be 0.84%. By 2100 this contribution falls to between 0.18% and 0.62% depending on the scenario, with the lower value being for the most-polluting of the four future emissions scenarios due to stringent controls on ozone precursor emissions from highly populated areas combined with a stronger tropospheric background ozone field. The higher end of this range is from the least-polluting of the four emissions scenarios, due to lower background tropospheric ozone combined with the use of a simpler downscaling methodology in the construction of the scenario, which results in higher emissions from megacities. Although the absolute impact of megacities on global ozone is small, an important result of this study is that under all future scenarios, future air quality in megacities is expected to be less influenced by local emissions within the cities, but instead more influenced by emission sources outside of the cities, with mixing ratios of background ozone projected to play an increasing role in megacity air quality throughout the 21st century. Assumptions made when downscaling the emissions scenarios onto the grids used in such modelling studies can have a large influence on these results; future generations of emissions scenarios should include spatially explicit representations or urban development suitable for air quality studies using global chemical transport models.

  11. Renewable and low-carbon energies as mitigation options of climate change for China

    OpenAIRE

    Urban, F.; Benders, R.M.J.; Moll, H.C.

    2009-01-01

    This article discusses how renewable and low-carbon energies can serve as mitigation options of climate change in China's power sector. Our study is based on scenarios developed in PowerPlan, a bottom-up model simulating a countries' power sector and its emissions. We first adjusted the model to China's present-day economy and power sector. We then developed different scenarios based on story lines for possible future developments in China. We simulated China's carbon-based electricity produc...

  12. Socio-economic Scenarios in Climate Assessments (IC11). Synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is widely recognised that projections of social and economic futures are circumscribed by irreducible uncertainties and ignorance. A common analytical response is to develop scenarios that map a range of alternative possible outcomes. The application of scenarios in climate assessments in the Netherlands was investigated in this report, focusing on the use of the socio-economic scenarios 'Welvaart en Leefomgeving' (WLO - The Future of the Dutch Built Environment). This research was carried out within the Climate Changes Spatial Planning (CcSP) programme. WLO scenarios have been applied in climate assessment studies. WLO generates figures and data that are useful. Nevertheless we encountered several CcSP projects that did not apply any socio-economic scenarios, whilst this seemed necessary based on their objectives. In general, climate assessments make little sense if socio-economic developments are not taken into account. Interestingly, some of the studies that did apply socio-economic scenarios, picked only one or two of the scenarios generated by WLO. From a theoretical point of view this selective 'shopping' may lead to a tunnel vision, because it is impossible to estimate which scenario is more probable than the others. At the other hand it is often impractical to explore all four scenarios. The time horizon of WLO was in several cases too short for climate assessments. As it is probable that the structure of society has changed significantly by 2040, it is difficult to quantitatively support the storylines as was done in WLO, because many model assumptions are not correct anymore. Possibly it is better to take a backcasting approach for the second half of the century for the purpose of the CcSP programme. The two case studies described in this report provide examples of good practice that are likely to be useful in future projects that deal with scenarios. In addition, this study produced an interactive website (www.climatescenarios.nl) that provides key

  13. Heterogeneous world model and collaborative scenarios of transition to globally sustainable nuclear energy systems

    OpenAIRE

    Kuznetsov Vladimir; Fesenko Galina

    2015-01-01

    The International Atomic Energy Agency's International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) is to help ensure that nuclear energy is available to contribute to meeting global energy needs of the 21st century in a sustainable manner. The INPRO task titled “Global scenarios” is to develop global and regional nuclear energy scenarios that lead to a global vision of sustainable nuclear energy in the 21st century. Results of multiple studies show that the criteria for dev...

  14. Strengthening of the hydrological cycle in future scenarios: atmospheric energy and water balance perspective

    OpenAIRE

    A. Alessandri; Fogli, P. G.; Vichi, M.; Zeng, N.

    2012-01-01

    Future climate scenarios experiencing global warming are expected to strengthen hydrological cycle during 21st century by comparison with the last decades of 20th century. We analyze strengthening of the global-scale increase in precipitation from the perspective of changes in whole atmospheric water and energy balances. Furthermore, by combining energy and water equations for the whole atmosphere we profitably obtain constraints for the changes in surface fluxes and for the partitioning at t...

  15. Drought assessment and trends analysis from 20th century to 21st century over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, X. L.; Ren, L. L.; Tong, R.; Liu, Y.; Cheng, X. R.; Jiang, S. H.; Yuan, F.

    2015-06-01

    Droughts are becoming the most expensive natural disasters in China and have exerted serious impacts on local economic development and ecological environment. The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) provides a unique opportunity to assess scientific understanding of climate variability and change over a range of historical and future period. In this study, fine-resolution multimodel climate projections over China are developed based on 7 CMIP5 climate models under RCP8.5 emissions scenarios by means of Bilinear Interpolation and Bias Correction. The results of downscaled CMIP5 models are evaluated over China by comparing the model outputs with the England Reanalysis CRU3.1 from 1951 to 2000. Accordingly, the results from the output of downscaled models are used to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Time series of SPI has been used to identify drought from 20th century to 21st century over China. The results show that, most areas of China are projected to become wetter as a consequence of increasing precipitation under RCP8.5 scenarios. Detailed examination shows that the SPI show a slightly increasing trend in the future period for the most parts of China, but drought in Southwest region of China will become the norm in the future RCP8.5 scenarios.

  16. Earth system commitments due to delayed mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfister, Patrik L.; Stocker, Thomas F.

    2016-01-01

    As long as global CO2 emissions continue to increase annually, long-term committed Earth system changes grow much faster than current observations. A novel metric linking this future growth to policy decisions today is the mitigation delay sensitivity (MDS), but MDS estimates for Earth system variables other than peak temperature (ΔT max) are missing. Using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity, we show that the current emission increase rate causes a ΔT max increase roughly 3-7.5 times as fast as observed warming, and a millenial steric sea level rise (SSLR) 7-25 times as fast as observed SSLR, depending on the achievable rate of emission reductions after the peak of emissions. These ranges are only slightly affected by the uncertainty range in equilibrium climate sensitivity, which is included in the above values. The extent of ocean acidification at the end of the century is also strongly dependent on the starting time and rate of emission reductions. The preservable surface ocean area with sufficient aragonite supersaturation for coral reef growth is diminished globally at an MDS of roughly 25%-80% per decade. A near-complete loss of this area becomes unavoidable if mitigation is delayed for a few years to decades. Also with respect to aragonite, 12%-18% of the Southern Ocean surface become undersaturated per decade, if emission reductions are delayed beyond 2015-2040. We conclude that the consequences of delaying global emission reductions are much better captured if the MDS of relevant Earth system variables is communicated in addition to current trends and total projected future changes.

  17. Earth system commitments due to delayed mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As long as global CO2 emissions continue to increase annually, long-term committed Earth system changes grow much faster than current observations. A novel metric linking this future growth to policy decisions today is the mitigation delay sensitivity (MDS), but MDS estimates for Earth system variables other than peak temperature (ΔT max) are missing. Using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity, we show that the current emission increase rate causes a ΔT max increase roughly 3–7.5 times as fast as observed warming, and a millenial steric sea level rise (SSLR) 7–25 times as fast as observed SSLR, depending on the achievable rate of emission reductions after the peak of emissions. These ranges are only slightly affected by the uncertainty range in equilibrium climate sensitivity, which is included in the above values. The extent of ocean acidification at the end of the century is also strongly dependent on the starting time and rate of emission reductions. The preservable surface ocean area with sufficient aragonite supersaturation for coral reef growth is diminished globally at an MDS of roughly 25%–80% per decade. A near-complete loss of this area becomes unavoidable if mitigation is delayed for a few years to decades. Also with respect to aragonite, 12%–18% of the Southern Ocean surface become undersaturated per decade, if emission reductions are delayed beyond 2015–2040. We conclude that the consequences of delaying global emission reductions are much better captured if the MDS of relevant Earth system variables is communicated in addition to current trends and total projected future changes. (letter)

  18. Consequences of 21st century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change

    OpenAIRE

    Clark, PU; Shakun, JD; Marcott, SA; Mix, AC; Eby, M.; Kulp, S.; Levermann, A.; Milne, GA; Pfister, PL; Santer, BD; Schrag, Dp; Solomon, S.; Stocker, TF; Strauss, BH; Weaver, AJ

    2016-01-01

    Most of the policy debate surrounding the actions needed to mitigate and adapt to anthropogenic climate change has been framed by observations of the past 150 years and climate and sea-level projections for the twenty-first century. The focus on this 250-year window, however, obscures some of the most profound problems associated with climate change. Here, we argue that the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, a period during which the overwhelming majority of human-caused carbon ...

  19. A Century of Acoustic Metrology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Knud

    The development in acoustic measurement technique over the last century is reviewed with special emphasis on the metrological aspect.......The development in acoustic measurement technique over the last century is reviewed with special emphasis on the metrological aspect....

  20. Impact of uncertainty in economic projections for stabilization scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krakauer, N. Y.

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios for the stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions and/or atmospheric concentrations typically take economic and technological growth, and thus the 'background', no-controls emissions trajectory, as essentially given, most commonly based on one or more of the IPCC SRES scenarios. One limitation of this set of scenarios is that they postulate a rather small range of future economic growth rates, based on extrapolation from recent experience as well as assumed tendencies such as international 'convergence'. Because there is no validated theoretical or empirical method to reliably predict long-term (decade to century) changes in the size and composition of the world economy, the uncertainty in economic path is large and likely understated by any measure derived from the ensemble of SRES scenarios. Considering a wider range of economic trajectories complicates stabilization scenarios. In particular, slow economic growth would imply that future generations will be relatively less able to invest in emissions controls or adapt to detrimental impacts of climate change. I show with a simple integrated assessment model that taking into consideration the possibility of economic slowdown generally heightens the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions now, rather than in future decades, for stabilizing radiative forcing or welfare damage at a given target.

  1. Statisticians of the centuries

    CERN Document Server

    Seneta, E; Crépel, P; Fienberg, S; Gani, J

    2001-01-01

    Statisticians of the Centuries aims to demonstrate the achievements of statistics to a broad audience, and to commemorate the work of celebrated statisticians. This is done through short biographies that put the statistical work in its historical and sociological context, emphasizing contributions to science and society in the broadest terms rather than narrow technical achievement. The discipline is treated from its earliest times and only individuals born prior to the 20th Century are included. The volume arose through the initiative of the International Statistical Institute (ISI), the principal representative association for international statistics (founded in 1885). Extensive consultations within the statistical community, and with prominent members of ISI in particular, led to the names of the 104 individuals who are included in the volume. The biographies were contributed by 73 authors from across the world. The editors are the well-known statisticians Chris Heyde and Eugene Seneta. Chris Heyde is Pro...

  2. Impacts on Canadian Competitiveness of International Climate Change Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robin Somerville

    1998-06-01

    Full Text Available This article summarizes and provides additional perspective on a study that contributes to the growing body of analyses of the costs of limiting greenhouse gas emissions. The study estimates the economic costs to Canada of six planning scenarios. Four of these scenarios involve the use of tradable emission permits and two involved a carbon tax. In each case, the mechanism's target is to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at some percentage of 1990 levels (100% or 90% by either 2010 or 2015. Policies that impose greater constraints on carbon dioxide emissions lead to higher economic costs in terms of foregone output. These costs, however, vary for the same objective, depending on the mechanism chosen and the economic assumptions made. In one typical scenario, in which tradable emission permits are used to achieve stabilization at 1990 levels by 2010, GDP is depressed from the "business-as-usual" scenario by about 2% for the first decade, after which it recovers to business-as-usual levels. Generally, for all scenarios, the economic impact of climate change mitigation imposes a transition cost on the economy, but the long-term productive capacity of the economy is not significantly affected.

  3. A Century of Antivenom

    OpenAIRE

    Lovreček, Dijana; Tomić, Siniša

    2011-01-01

    Because it primarily affects the poor in undeveloped parts of the world where medical care is often inadequate and insufficient, envenomation is considered a neglected public health issue, despite the existence of antivenom therapy for more than a century. This article provides an overview of the epidemiological situation for important venomous animals, together with achievements in the production, control, technological progress and safety of antivenoms since their discovery.

  4. WHEELING THROUGH THE CENTURIES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUO; JIANYING

    2002-01-01

    IN an excavated pit at the side of an expressway in Shandong’s Linzi are visible 2,000-year-old remains of horses and wooden carriages. The horse skeletons are on their side, in an attitude of motion. The pit was discovered in the late 20th century, when the expressway was being built. These early ancestors of modern transport, no longer "road-worthy," are now protected historic artifacts.

  5. Identifying 21st Century Capabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Robert

    2012-01-01

    What are the capabilities necessary to meet 21st century challenges? Much of the literature on 21st century skills focuses on skills necessary to meet those challenges associated with future work in a globalised world. The result is a limited characterisation of those capabilities necessary to address 21st century social, health and particularly…

  6. An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleskens, L.; Nainggolan, D.; Stringer, L. C.

    2014-11-01

    Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

  7. Unconventional Nuclear Warfare Defense (UNWD) containment and mitigation subtask.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wente, William Baker

    2005-06-01

    The objective of this subtask of the Unconventional Nuclear Warfare Design project was to demonstrate mitigation technologies for radiological material dispersal and to assist planners with incorporation of the technologies into a concept of operations. The High Consequence Assessment and Technology department at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has studied aqueous foam's ability to mitigate the effects of an explosively disseminated radiological dispersal device (RDD). These benefits include particle capture of respirable radiological particles, attenuation of blast overpressure, and reduction of plume buoyancy. To better convey the aqueous foam attributes, SNL conducted a study using the Explosive Release Atmospheric Dispersion model, comparing the effects of a mitigated and unmitigated explosive RDD release. Results from this study compared health effects and land contamination between the two scenarios in terms of distances of effect, population exposure, and remediation costs. Incorporating aqueous foam technology, SNL created a conceptual design for a stationary containment area to be located at a facility entrance with equipment that could minimize the effects from the detonation of a vehicle transported RDD. The containment design was evaluated against several criteria, including mitigation ability (both respirable and large fragment particle capture as well as blast overpressure suppression), speed of implementation, cost, simplicity, and required space. A mock-up of the conceptual idea was constructed at SNL's 9920 explosive test site to demonstrate the containment design.

  8. Coping with commitment: projected thermal stress on coral reefs under different future scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon D Donner

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Periods of anomalously warm ocean temperatures can lead to mass coral bleaching. Past studies have concluded that anthropogenic climate change may rapidly increase the frequency of these thermal stress events, leading to declines in coral cover, shifts in the composition of corals and other reef-dwelling organisms, and stress on the human populations who depend on coral reef ecosystems for food, income and shoreline protection. The ability of greenhouse gas mitigation to alter the near-term forecast for coral reefs is limited by the time lag between greenhouse gas emissions and the physical climate response. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This study uses observed sea surface temperatures and the results of global climate model forced with five different future emissions scenarios to evaluate the "committed warming" for coral reefs worldwide. The results show that the physical warming commitment from current accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere could cause over half of the world's coral reefs to experience harmfully frequent (p> or =0.2 year(-1 thermal stress by 2080. An additional "societal" warming commitment, caused by the time required to shift from a business-as-usual emissions trajectory to a 550 ppm CO(2 stabilization trajectory, may cause over 80% of the world's coral reefs to experience harmfully frequent events by 2030. Thermal adaptation of 1.5 degrees C would delay the thermal stress forecast by 50-80 years. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The results suggest that adaptation -- via biological mechanisms, coral community shifts and/or management interventions -- could provide time to change the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions and possibly avoid the recurrence of harmfully frequent events at the majority (97% of the world's coral reefs this century. Without any thermal adaptation, atmospheric CO(2 concentrations may need to be stabilized below current levels to avoid the degradation of coral reef ecosystems

  9. Multicell Cooperation for LTE-Advanced Heterogeneous Network Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soret, Beatriz; Wang, Hua; Rosa, Claudio;

    2013-01-01

    In this article we present two promising practical use cases for simple multicell cooperation for LTE-Advanced heterogeneous network (HetNet) scenarios with macro and small cells. For co-channel deployment cases, we recommend the use of enhanced inter-cell interference coordination (eICIC) to...... mitigate cross-tier interference and ensure sufficient offload of users from macro to small cells. It is shown how the eICIC benefit is maximized by using a distributed inter-base station control framework for dynamic adjustment of essential parameters. Secondly, for scenarios where macro and small cells...... are deployed at different carriers an efficient use of the fragmented spectrum can be achieved by using collaborative inter-site carrier aggregation. In addition to distributed coordination/collaboration between base station nodes, the importance of explicit terminal assistance is highlighted...

  10. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2014-12-01

    The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their

  11. A course in disaster mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bundy, Sarah J

    2016-01-01

    While endeavors are underway within the emergency management discipline to develop a unique body of foundational knowledge, widespread acknowledgement and agreement within the emergency management scholarly community of the existence of theoretical foundations and the consistent incorporation of these elements into emergency management research and teaching are still lacking. This article offers an outline of a US-based undergraduate course in mitigation theory and practice that is based on a synthesis of the academic literature related to disaster mitigation as a means to advance the discourse on foundational knowledge and curriculum development. The course outline proposes a set of concepts, theories, propositions, and empirical data that would arguably be fundamental for students in gaining a comprehensive understanding of mitigation in the United States and suggests how that information can be organized and presented in a meaningful way. PMID:26963230

  12. Benefits of interrelationships between climate change mitigation and adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Lea Ravnkilde; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

    2014-01-01

    and product 2: climate change adaptation. The production possibilities frontier (PPF) summarises the production benefits of the two products. The case study of the paper is the replanting of mangrove forests in the coastal wetland areas of Peam Krasaob Wildlife Sanctuary in Cambodia. The benefits of...... climate change mitigation will be estimated on the basis of the amount of carbon sequestrated in the replanted area. The benefits of climate change adaptation are the replanted area’s ability to protect the local community from storms and sea level rise, including the co-benefits of enhanced productivity...... estimated benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptation are tested under different climate change scenarios, seeing as the impact and frequency of storms can have a significant effect on coastal wetland areas and the replanting of the mangrove forests and therefore also on the joint benefits of...

  13. Climate Change under aggressive mitigation: The ENSEMBLES multi-model experiment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Johns, T.C.; Royer, J.F.; Hoeschel, I.; Huebener, H.; Roeckner, E.; Manzini, E.; May, W.; Dufresne, J.L.; Ottera, O.H.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Salas y Melia, D.; Giorgetta, M.A.; Denvil, S.; Yang, S.; Fogli, P.G.; Koerper, J.; Tjiputra, J.F.; Stehfest, E.; Hewitt, C.D.

    2011-01-01

    We present results from multiple comprehensive models used to simulate an aggressive mitigation scenario based on detailed results of an Integrated Assessment Model. The experiment employs ten global climate and Earth System models (GCMs and ESMs) and pioneers elements of the long-term experimental

  14. Renewable and low-carbon energies as mitigation options of climate change for China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Urban, F.; Benders, R. M. J.; Moll, H. C.

    2009-01-01

    This article discusses how renewable and low-carbon energies can serve as mitigation options of climate change in China's power sector. Our study is based on scenarios developed in PowerPlan, a bottom-up model simulating a countries' power sector and its emissions. We first adjusted the model to Chi

  15. The mitigation effect of configuration and context optimization of urban holdings on heat island

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon has become a serious problem in recent years. It is necessary to study the mitigation methods and quantify their effects on UHI. In this paper, based on the remote sensed data, an empirical model was established as a negative function of land surface temperature (LST) to vegetation coverage. Urban heat island intensity (UHII) was estimated by a robust statistic algorithm. Compared with the current condition (vegetation coverage equaling to 0%), five high vegetation coverage building scenarios (10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, and 50%) were designed to explore mitigation effects on UHI separately. The results showed that the mean LST increase by about 0.5°C when vegetation coverage decrease by 0.1. UHII has a considerable decrease when the scenarios of vegetation coverage equaling to 20% and 40%, respectively. The reasonable vegetation configuration is the effective UHI mitigation

  16. Managing U.S. climate risk through mitigation: Insights from the American Climate Prospectus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, R. E., III; Hsiang, S. M.; Houser, T.; Larsen, K.; Rasmussen, D. M., Jr.; Jina, A.; Rising, J.; Delgado, M.; Mohan, S.; Muir-Wood, R.; Wilson, P. S.

    2014-12-01

    The American Climate Prospectus (ACP), the technical analysis underlying the Risky Business project, quantitatively assessed the economic risks posed to the United States by six categories of climate change impacts: crop yield, energy demand, coastal storm damage, criminal activity, labor productivity, and mortality [1]. At a national level, measured by impact on gross domestic product, increased mortality and decreased labor productivity pose the large risks, followed by increased energy demand and coastal damages. Changes in crop yield and crime have smaller impacts. The ACP was not intended to conduct a benefit-cost analysis of climate change mitigation. It assessed the economic consequences of future impacts on an economy with a structure equivalent to that of the current economy, not accounting for socio-economic development and adaptation, and did not assess the cost of mitigation. One of its primary goals was to inform adaptation decisions that are conventionally considered 'endogenous' in economic analyses of climate change. Nonetheless, its results provide insight into the potential of mitigation to manage climate risk. Differences between RCP 8.5 (moderately-high business-as-usual emissions), RCP 4.5 (moderate mitigation) and RCP 2.6 (extremely strong mitigation) are not apparent until mid-century and become significant only late in the century. For all impacts except coastal damages, mitigation significantly reduces uncertainty in late-century impact estimates. Nationally, mitigation significantly and monotonically reduces median projected labor productivity losses and violent crime. Switching from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 also significantly reduces median projections of mortality and energy demand, but the domestic value to the U.S. of further mitigation to RCP 2.6 is less clear. The marginal benefits decline in part because some regions of the country (especially the Northwest) may experience increased crop yields, reduced mortality, and reduced energy

  17. New reactors concepts and scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In recent years an increasing interest is observed with respect to subcritical, accelerator driven systems (ADS), for their possible role in perspective future nuclear energy scenarios, as actinide (Pu and MA) incinerators, and/or claimed energy plants with potential enhanced safety characteristics. Important research programs are devoted to the various related fields of research. Extensive studies on the ADS behavior under incidental conditions are in particular made, for verifying their claimed advantage, under the safety point of view, with respect to the corresponding critical reactors. Corresponding medium and long range scenarios are being studied to cope with a number of concerns associated with the safety (power excursions. residual heat risk), as well as with the fuel flow (criticality accidents, fuel diversion, radiological risk, proliferation). In the present work we shall try to review current lines of research in this field, and comment on possible scenarios so far envisaged. (author)

  18. Building Scenarios for Greener Gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the Netherlands, the Greening of Gas project has been started to investigate the feasibility, from ecological, economic and technological perspectives, of adding hydrogen to the Dutch natural gas network. The preliminary findings of the project suggest that steam methane reforming of natural gas provides the most logical choice for the initial stages of a transition to a hydrogen economy. This presents an opportunity for research into synergistic options for hydrogen and natural gas in a combined energy supply. The approach adopted for exploring the feasibility of this idea of synergy is through the creation of plausible, internally consistent scenarios. In this paper we describe the way that the scenarios were designed and how they provide a framework for designing effective policies. These robust scenarios are a critical first-step for the development of an adaptive policy and a flexible investment strategy aimed at effecting the transition to a sustainable hydrogen economy. (authors)

  19. Scenario Analysis of the Philippine Energy Market

    OpenAIRE

    Fe Amor Parel Gudmundsson 1975

    2014-01-01

    This research project investigates the Philippine energy market. The main objective is to provide alternative scenarios, based on the propositions which are generated from literature review. Scenario Analysis is used as the primary tool for the analysis using the Delphi method which includes eight panel of experts as participants. Findings of this research concludes three scenarios: Policy Scenario, Sustainability Scenario, and Energy Price Scenario. Political will is important to address th...

  20. Scenarios of future energy intensities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this chapter, the authors present scenarios of potential change in energy intensities in the OECD countries and in the Soviet Union. These scenarios are meant to illustrate how intensities might evolve over the next 20 years given different conditions with respect to energy prices, energy-efficiency policies, and other key factors. Changes in intensity will also be affected by the rates of growth and stock turnover in each sector. They have not tried to forecast how activity levels and structure will evolve. However, the OECD scenarios assume a world in which GDP averages growth in the 2-3%/year range, with some differences among countries. For the Soviet Union, the degree and pace of intensity decline will be highly dependent on the success of the transition to a market economy; each scenario explicitly envisions a different degree of success. They have not constructed comparable scenarios for the developing countries. The scenarios presented in this chapter do not predict what will happen in the future. They believe, however, that they illustrate a plausible set of outcomes if energy prices, policies, programs, and other factors evolve as described in each case. With higher energy prices and vigorous policies and programs, intensities in the OECD countries in 2010 could be nearly 50% less on average than the level where trends seem to be point. In the former Soviet Union, a combination of rapid, successful economic reform and extra effort to improve energy efficiency might result in average intensity being nearly 40% less than in a slow reform case. And in the LDCs, a mixture of sound policies, programs, and energy pricing reform could also lead to intensities being far lower than they would be otherwise. 8 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  1. Electricity planning in Japan by 2030 through scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Under continuing policies of the mitigation of GHG (Green House Gases) emission, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system after the Fukushima nuclear accident. The development plans of nuclear power and renewable energy - mainly PV and wind power - need to be reconsidered. Therefore, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios in 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development strategies: (1) negative nuclear power; (2) conservative nuclear power; and (3) active pursuit of nuclear power. On the other side, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering energy saving. The purpose of the study is to propose electricity supply systems with maximum renewable energy penetration under different nuclear power development strategies and demand situations through scenario analysis. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input-output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix and CO2 emissions of the scenarios were compared and analyzed with each other and with historical data. The results show that (1) penetration level of renewable energy is subject to the share of nuclear power as base load; (2) it is very difficult to remove nuclear power absolutely from the electricity system even when a high level of penetration of renewable energy is realized; (3) high level penetration of renewable energy can reduce the dependence on nuclear and thermal power, but there is a need for more flexible power sources to absorb fluctuations; (4) CO2 emissions reduction compared to 1990 levels can be readily achieved with the help of renewable energy, nuclear power and energy saving in 2030. This is a revised version of the paper that was published in [1]. (author)

  2. Energy and Climate Scenarios: Before and After Copenhagen

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Following on from his contribution to the special number 'Energy Prospects and Greenhouse Effect' (Futuribles 315, January 2006), which gave an account of the main foresight scenarios played out on the stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions, Patrick Criqui (with Constantin Ilasca) shows here how scenarios in this area have evolved since 2007. Though the long-favoured approach consisted in starting out from global targets for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, set at international conferences, and building national policy scenarios around them (the so-called 'top-down' approach), the rapid economic growth of the emerging countries (particularly China) and the return of the USA to international climate change negotiations have altered the state of play. Since the Copenhagen Agreement of late 2009, it would seem, then, more logical, argue Patrick Criqui and Constantin Ilasca, to start from policies and targets set out at the national level in developing scenarios on global climate change (the so-called 'bottom-up' approach). Criqui and Ilasca lay out this paradigm change in detail. For example, they present the forward view of greenhouse gas emissions as it looked before Copenhagen, based mainly on assessments of the costs associated with the mitigation policies required to limit climate warming. They then analyse various so-called 'post-carbon' transitional scenarios (which are supposed to sound the death-knell of the era of massive CO2 emissions), combining climate policy, energy sustainability and modes of economic development. Lastly, they show the turnabout that has been developing since the Copenhagen Agreement and the now manifest tension between ambitious global objectives (limiting global warming to 2 deg. C up to 2100) and national realities leading to more limited commitments (particularly in the emerging economies) - a new context which might give rise to new families of scenarios, incorporating this sacrificing of global well-being on the altar

  3. Disruptions in ITER and strategies for their control and mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lehnen, M., E-mail: michael.lehnen@iter.org [ITER Organization, Route de Vinon sur Verdon, 13115 St Paul Lez Durance (France); Aleynikova, K.; Aleynikov, P.B.; Campbell, D.J. [ITER Organization, Route de Vinon sur Verdon, 13115 St Paul Lez Durance (France); Drewelow, P. [Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, Greifswald branch, EURATOM Ass., D-17491 Greifswald (Germany); Eidietis, N.W. [General Atomics, P.O. Box 85608, San Diego, CA 92186-5608 (United States); Gasparyan, Yu. [National Research Nuclear University MEPhI (Moscow Engineering Physics Institute), Kashirskoe sh. 31, Moscow 115409 (Russian Federation); Granetz, R.S. [MIT Plasma Science and Fusion Center, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Gribov, Y. [ITER Organization, Route de Vinon sur Verdon, 13115 St Paul Lez Durance (France); Hartmann, N. [Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Institute of Energy and Climate Research—Plasma Physics, Association EURATOM-FZJ, Trilateral Euregio Cluster, 52425 Jülich (Germany); Hollmann, E.M. [University of California-San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093 (United States); Izzo, V.A. [ITER Organization, Route de Vinon sur Verdon, 13115 St Paul Lez Durance (France); Jachmich, S. [Laboratory for Plasma Physics, ERM/KMS, Association EURATOM – Belgian State, B-1000 Brussels (Belgium); Kim, S.-H.; Kočan, M. [ITER Organization, Route de Vinon sur Verdon, 13115 St Paul Lez Durance (France); Koslowski, H.R. [Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Institute of Energy and Climate Research—Plasma Physics, Association EURATOM-FZJ, Trilateral Euregio Cluster, 52425 Jülich (Germany); Kovalenko, D. [SRC RF TRINITI, ul. Pushkovykh, vladenie 12, Troitsk, Moscow 142190 (Russian Federation); Kruezi, U. [CCFE, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, Oxon, OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); and others

    2015-08-15

    The thermal and electromagnetic loads related to disruptions in ITER are substantial and require careful design of tokamak components to ensure they reach the projected lifetime and to ensure that safety relevant components fulfil their function for the worst foreseen scenarios. The disruption load specifications are the basis for the design process of components like the full-W divertor, the blanket modules and the vacuum vessel and will set the boundary conditions for ITER operations. This paper will give a brief overview on the disruption loads and mitigation strategies for ITER and will discuss the physics basis which is continuously refined through the current disruption R&D programs.

  4. Passive Thrust Oscillation Mitigation for the CEV Crew Pallet System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sammons, Matthew; Powell, Cory; Pellicciotti, Joseph; Buehrle, Ralph; Johnson, Keith

    2012-01-01

    The Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) was intended to be the next-generation human spacecraft for the Constellation Program. The CEV Isolator Strut mechanism was designed to mitigate loads imparted to the CEV crew caused by the Thrust Oscillation (TO) phenomenon of the proposed Ares I Launch Vehicle (LV). The Isolator Strut was also designed to be compatible with Launch Abort (LA) contingencies and landing scenarios. Prototype struts were designed, built, and tested in component, sub-system, and system-level testing. The design of the strut, the results of the tests, and the conclusions and lessons learned from the program will be explored in this paper.

  5. Disruptions in ITER and strategies for their control and mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The thermal and electromagnetic loads related to disruptions in ITER are substantial and require careful design of tokamak components to ensure they reach the projected lifetime and to ensure that safety relevant components fulfil their function for the worst foreseen scenarios. The disruption load specifications are the basis for the design process of components like the full-W divertor, the blanket modules and the vacuum vessel and will set the boundary conditions for ITER operations. This paper will give a brief overview on the disruption loads and mitigation strategies for ITER and will discuss the physics basis which is continuously refined through the current disruption R&D programs

  6. Future scenarios to inspire innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Smedt, Peter; Borch, Kristian; Fuller, Ted

    2013-01-01

    . Due to the social dynamics of innovation, new socio-technical subsystems are emerging, however there is lack of exploitation of novel ideas and sustainable solutions to address these grand challenges. In this paper we argue that issues of how knowledge is represented can have a part in this lack of...... grand challenges. By analyzing several scenario cases, elements of good practices and principles on how to strengthen innovation systems through future scenarios are identified. This is needed because innovation itself needs to be oriented along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations of...

  7. Climate change and future scenarios

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ač, Alexander; Krupková, Lenka; Marek, Michal V.

    Volume 1. 1. Brno: Global Change Research Centre, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, v. v. i, 2015 - (Urban, O.; Klem, K.), s. 8-24 ISBN 978-80-87902-14-1 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : climate change * global climate change * ecosystems * tipping points * adaptation * mitigation * complexity Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology

  8. The quantum century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Physicists often complain that the phrase quantum leap'' is used erroneously, if harmlessly, by people to describe a large jump or change. Yet this month the physics community is celebrating the 100th anniversary of what must count as the beginning of the biggest quantum leap in the history of science, whichever way you define the phrase. On 14 December 1900 Max Planck presented a paper on the radiation emitted by a black body at a meeting of the German Physical Society in Berlin. This event is generally taken to mark the start of the quantum century, though few people realized it at the time - not even Planck himself. (U.K.)

  9. New Century, New Prospects

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN XULONG

    2010-01-01

    @@ Nuclear weapons changed the world of the 20th century. Their powerful force rewrote history. Nuclear bombs dropped on Japan by the United States accelerated the collapse of Japanese militarism and hastened the end of World War Ⅱ. The West led by the United States and the East bloc led by the Soviet Union started a bitter nuclear arms race that mutually assured destruction. The balance of terror between the two blocs stabilized in the Cold War and prevented the world from actual armed conflict, thus maintaining a long-term but occasionally uneasy peace in Europe and the world.

  10. A Century Apart

    OpenAIRE

    Birgir Hrannar Stefánsson 1982

    2014-01-01

    Iceland and China are two nations situated almost at the opposite side of the globe. In this thesis, I am taking two examples of media coverage on China; the writings of Ólafur Ólafsson are compared with the discussion in Akureyri Vikublað regarding Huang Nubo. Ólafur Ólafsson was a pioneer of intercultural communication between Iceland and China in the early 20th century. Working as a missionary in China he sent home letters published through the magazine Ljósberinn and later on these wr...

  11. Carbonate mineral saturation states in the East China Sea: present conditions and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W.-C. Chou

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available To assess the impact of rising atmospheric CO2 and eutrophication on the carbonate chemistry of the East China Sea shelf waters, saturation states (Ω for two important biologically relevant carbonate minerals – calcite (Ωc and aragonite (Ωa – were calculated throughout the water column from dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC and total alkalinity (TA data collected in spring and summer of 2009. Results show that the highest Ωc (∼9.0 and Ωa (∼5.8 values were found in surface water of the Changjiang plume area in summer, whereas the lowest values (Ωc = ∼2.7 and Ωa = ∼1.7 were concurrently observed in the bottom water of the same area. This divergent behavior of saturation states in surface and bottom waters was driven by intensive biological production and strong stratification of the water column. The high rate of phytoplankton production, stimulated by the enormous nutrient discharge from the Changjiang, acts to decrease the ratio of DIC to TA, and thereby increases Ω values. In contrast, remineralization of organic matter in the bottom water acts to increase the DIC to TA ratio, and thus decreases Ω values. The projected result shows that continued increases of atmospheric CO2 under the IS92a emission scenario will decrease Ω values by 40–50% by the end of this century, but both the surface and bottom waters will remain supersaturated with respect to calcite and aragonite. Nevertheless, superimposed on such Ω decrease is the increasing eutrophication, which would mitigate or enhance the Ω decline caused by anthropogenic CO2 uptake in surface and bottom waters, respectively. Our simulation reveals that, under the combined impact of eutrophication and augmentation of atmospheric CO2, the bottom water of the Changjiang plume area will become undersaturated with respect to aragonite (Ωa = ∼0.8 by the end of this century, which would threaten the health of the benthic ecosystem.

  12. Remote Sensing Technologies Mitigate Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Ames Research Center has partnered with the California Department of Water Resources to develop satellite-based technologies to mitigate drought conditions. One project aims to help water managers adjust their irrigation to match the biological needs of each crop, and another involves monitoring areas where land is fallow so emergency relief can more quickly aid affected communities.

  13. Scenario of Architectural Education in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dua, S.; Chahal, K. S.

    2014-09-01

    The dictionary meaning of education is to develop mentally and morally. A good holistic architectural education, therefore, is a combination of skills, information, as well as values. It is somewhat unique. The evaluation process is continuous in nature and in addition to the traditional means of assessment, the training in architectural education consists of varied interrelated parts-theory, field visit and studio/workshop. To certain extent the subjective nature of the design studio projects provides challenges and opportunities for both students and faculty members, in terms of acquiring necessary skills at the part of the students, and, necessity to update and upgrade continually with the changing pace at the part of the teachers. Technology continues to grow at a rapid pace; equipping the students to meet the complex demands of the profession; the curriculum structure and focus and value system must facilitate the relationship between general education and specialized study. Architects must acquire and understand the required information and find ways to put it in order and apply it to particular settings especially in this era of MNCs and BPOs. The paper discusses the current scenario of architectural education in India and affirms the need for change in this education from generalized study which had been in practice in twentieth century to a more relevant, specialised, and value-based education addressing technical and humanistic challenges more objectively in these vastly changing, socio-economic and political trends at global and regional levels.

  14. The potential role of nuclear energy in mitigating CO2 emissions in the United Arab Emirates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The annual CO2 emissions have more than doubled in the UAE since 1990. Electricity generated by fossil fuels is responsible for almost half of the country's emissions. Keeping with the Kyoto Protocol, the UAE decided to integrate nuclear energy into the electricity scheme to mitigate CO2 emissions as declared by the government. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of the UAE's proposed nuclear energy strategy in mitigating CO2 emissions from the built environment up to year 2050. The IAEA's simulation model “MESSAGE” is used to estimate the energy demand and CO2 emissions in the UAE up to year 2050. Several energy supply/fuels scenarios are modeled and simulated including the following: Business as Usual (BaU), the UAE proposed nuclear strategy (APR1400) as well as 12 more aggressive Clean Energy Era (CEE) proposed scenarios. Nuclear energy, especially in its extreme CEE scenario (8NPPs), was found to be more practical option in mitigating CO2 than renewable energy and carbon capture and sequestration among the simulated scenarios. Nuclear energy also demonstrated an economic viability. The cost of electricity produced from nuclear energy was calculated to be 3.2 cents/kWh, significantly less than the current cost of 8.15 cents/kWh for electricity generation from fossil fuels in the UAE. - Highlights: ► Effectiveness of the UAE's proposed nuclear energy strategy in mitigating CO2 emissions. ► Simulation is used to estimate the energy demand and CO2 emissions in the UAE. ► Tested several energy supply/fuels scenarios on mitigating CO2.

  15. Sea-level scenarios for evaluating coastal impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Nicholls, R. J.; Hanson, S.; Lowe, J.A.; Warrick, R.A.; Lu, X; A. J. Long

    2013-01-01

    Global-mean sea-level rise will drive impacts and adaptation needs around the world's coasts over the 21st century and beyond. A key element in assessing these issues is the development of scenarios (or plausible futures) of local relative sea-level rise to support impact assessment and adaptation planning. This requires combining a number of different but uncertain components of sea level which can be linked to climatic and non-climatic (i.e., uplift/subsidence of coastal land) factors. A ma...

  16. The Impact of New Estimates of Mixing Ratio and Flux-based Halogen Scenarios on Ozone Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oman, Luke D.; Douglass, Anne R.; Liang, Qing; Strahan, Susan E.

    2014-01-01

    The evolution of ozone in the 21st century has been shown to be mainly impacted by the halogen emissions scenario and predicted changes in the circulation of the stratosphere. New estimates of mixing ratio and flux-based emission scenarios have been produced from the SPARC Lifetime Assessment 2013. Simulations using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM) are conducted using this new A1 2014 halogen scenario and compared to ones using the A1 2010 scenario. This updated version of GEOSCCM includes a realistic representation of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and improvements related to the break up of the Antarctic polar vortex. We will present results of the ozone evolution over the recent past and 21st century to the A1 2010, A1 2014 mixing ratio, and an A1 2014 flux-based halogen scenario. Implications of the uncertainties in these estimates as well as those from possible circulation changes will be discussed.

  17. The Olympia Proceedings. Section V: Synthesis of the Scenarios. The Future: A Context for Present Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardon, Bartell W.

    1982-01-01

    As structures for effective future planning in school psychology, Olympia conference participants built scenarios of world, national, societal, and educational conditions for the 1980s, 1990s and the first decade of the twenty-first century. Possible changes in school psychology's role and nature are projected for each decade. (CM)

  18. Policy trade-offs between climate mitigation and clean cook-stove access in South Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, Colin; Pachauri, Shonali; Rao, Narasimha D.; McCollum, David; Rogelj, Joeri; Riahi, Keywan

    2016-01-01

    Household air pollution from traditional cook stoves presents a greater health hazard than any other environmental factor. Despite government efforts to support clean-burning cooking fuels, over 700 million people in South Asia could still rely on traditional stoves in 2030. This number could rise if climate change mitigation efforts increase energy costs. Here we quantify the costs of support policies to make clean cooking affordable to all South Asians under four increasingly stringent climate policy scenarios. Our most stringent mitigation scenario increases clean fuel costs 38% in 2030 relative to the baseline, keeping 21% more South Asians on traditional stoves or increasing the minimum support policy cost to achieve universal clean cooking by up to 44%. The extent of this increase depends on how policymakers allocate subsidies between clean fuels and stoves. These additional costs are within the range of financial transfers to South Asia estimated in efforts-sharing scenarios of international climate agreements.

  19. A century of physics

    CERN Document Server

    Bromley, D Allan

    2002-01-01

    In this amazing tour d'horizon, D. Allan Bromley uses the occasion of the centenary of the American Physical Society to reflect upon the growth of physics over the past 100 years, its fragmentation into numerous subdisciplines, the impact physics has had upon modern technology, and the re-emergence of the fundamental unity of the discipline in recent years. Hundreds of historical illustrations accompany the text. Bromley conveys much of the excitement and wonder that research in physics generated in the 20th century and asks what new things are in store in the next century. He covers such topics as relativity and quantum mechanics, the Manhattan project, superconductivity, transistors and the revolution brought about by solid-state electronics, protein folding, the uses of nuclear and atomic physics in biology and medicine, plate tectonics, the expansion of the universe and the Big Bang, and gravitational radiation. Bromley, the Sterling Professor of the Sciences and Dean of Yale University, served as Assista...

  20. The management century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiechel, Walter

    2012-11-01

    In 1886, addressing the nascent American Society of Mechanical Engineers, Henry R. Towne proposed that "the management of works" be considered a modern art--thereby heralding the Management Century, when management as we know it came into being and shaped the world in which we work. Kiechel, a past editorial director of Harvard Business Publishing, elucidates the three eras that punctuate this period: the years leading up to World War II, during which scientific exactitude gave wings to a new managerial elite; the early postwar decades, managerialism's apogee of self-confidence and a time when wartime principles of strategy were adapted, sometimes ruthlessly, to the running of companies; and the 1980s to the present, years that saw fast-moving changes, disequilibrium, and a servitude to market forces but also ushered in globalism, unprecedented innovation, and heightened expectations about how workers are to be treated. Along the way he examines the contributions of thinkers such as Frederick Taylor, Elton Mayo, Peter Drucker, and Michael Porter. What lies ahead? Perhaps the biggest challenge facing the 21st-century company, Kiechel posits, is to truly free the spark of human imagination from the organization's tidal pull toward the status quo. There's almost always a better way, he concludes--and management will continue to seek it. PMID:23155998

  1. Emissions scenarios: a final response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gruebler, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Alcamo, J. (and others)

    2004-01-01

    This note is a final response to the debate raised by Mr. Castles and Mr. Henderson (for brevity, we refer here to the two authors simply as C and H) in this Journal (vol 14, no 2 and 3, and no 4) on the issue of economic growth in developing countries in some of the emissions scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). We first outline areas of agreement and then the remaining areas of disagreement. Two important areas of agreement have emerged from the debate according to our view. First, both parties agree that scenarios assuming a conditional convergence in income levels, i.e., a higher growth in per capita income in poorer countries when compared to countries with higher levels of affluence, are both 'plausible and well attested in economic history' (C and H, p. 424). Thus, the fundamental, structural characteristic of some of the SRES scenarios contested by C and H are not challenged per se, but rather how fast such trends could unfold in the future. (author)

  2. Emissions scenario: a final response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gruebler, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Alcamo, J. (and others)

    2004-01-01

    This note is a final response to the debate raised by Mr Castles and Mr Henderson (for brevity, we refer here to the two authors simply as C and H) in this Journal (vol. 14, no. 2 and 3, and no. 4) on the issue of economic growth in developing countries in some of the emissions scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). We first outline areas of agreement and then the remaining areas of disagreement. Two important areas of agreement have emerged from the debate according to our view. First, both parties agree that scenarios assuming a conditional convergence in income levels, i.e., a higher growth in per capita income in poorer countries when compared to countries with higher levels of affluence, are both ''plausible and well attested in economic history'' (C and H, p. 424). Thus, the fundamental, structural characteristic of some of the SRES scenarios contested by C and H are not challenged per se, but rather how fast such trends could unfold in the future. (author)

  3. Chemical evolution in hierarchical scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Tissera P.B.

    2012-01-01

    We studied the chemical properties of Milky-Way mass galaxies. We found common global chemical patterns with particularities which reflect their different assembly histories in a hierarchical scenario. We carried out a comprehensively analysis of the dynamical components (central spheroid, disc, inner and outer haloes) and their chemical properties.

  4. Rapid scenarios and observed intensities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franco Pettenati

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available After a destructive earthquake, national Governments need to know the approximate amount of damage, the number of casualties, and the financial losses as soon as possible. Rapid scenarios are also used to inform the general public; see the widely used Shakemap package [Wald et al. 1999, 2006] of the US Geological Survey (USGS and the one modified by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV; National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, which is reproduced for Figure 1. The general matter of the use of intensities in damage scenarios was discussed in a special session at the 2008 Annual Meeting of the Seismological Society of America (http://www.seismosoc.org/meetings/2008/specialsessions.html, and was also discussed in the NIS-1 session of the European Congress in Moscow, in August 2012 (http://www.esc2012-moscow.org/esc_thematicareas.html. The purposes of the present report are to: (i compare different types of intensities; (ii check two rapid scenarios of intensity; and (iii understand whether the KF formula [Sirovich 1996, Sirovich et al. 2009] can be used as a new 'attenuation' relationship to improve rapid scenarios. […

  5. Future Scenarios and Environmental Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopnina, Helen

    2014-01-01

    This article explores a number of questions about visions of the future and their implications for environmental education (EE). If the future were known, what kind of actions would be needed to maintain the positive aspects and reverse the negative ones? How could these actions be translated into the aims of EE? Three future scenarios are…

  6. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information; this...

  7. Helical ITER hybrid scenario equilibria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Numerical computations of ITER equilibria in the hybrid scenario using a three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamic equilibrium code with nested magnetic flux surfaces demonstrate the formation of internal 3D helical cores similar to saturated ideal internal kink modes under reversed magnetic shear conditions when the minimum value of the inverse rotational transform is in the neighbourhood of unity.

  8. Ultra-Perfect Sorting Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouangraoua, Aïda; Bergeron, Anne; Swenson, Krister M.

    Perfection has been used as a criteria to select rearrangement scenarios since 2004. However, there is a fundamental bias towards extant species in the original definition: ancestral species are not bound to perfection. Here we develop a new theory of perfection that takes an egalitarian view of species, and apply it to the complex evolution of mammal chromosome X.

  9. Shell energy scenarios to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shell developed two scenarios that describe alternative ways the energy future may develop. In the first scenario (Scramble) policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. Likewise, greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks. In the second scenario (Blueprints) growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. A price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage, and energy efficiency measures. The result is far lower carbon dioxide emissions. Both these scenarios can help Shell to test their strategy against a range of possible developments over the long-term. However, according to Shell, the Blueprints' outcomes offer the best hope for a sustainable future, whether or not they arise exactly in the way described. However, with the right combination of policy, technology and commitment from governments, industry and society globally, Shell believes it can be realized. But achieving the targets will not be easy, and time is short. Clear thinking, huge investment, and effective leadership are required

  10. NEC-2020 emission reduction scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slentø, Erik; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Hoffmann, Leif;

    The upcoming NEC-2020 EU directive sets up emission ceilings for NOX, SO2, NH3, NMVOC and PM in order to meet the environmental exposure targets of the Thematic Strategy. This report contains an assessment of intermediary emission reduction scenarios for Denmark, computed by the GAINS model 2007...

  11. Particle Production in Ekpyrotic Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Hipolito-Ricaldi, W S; Ferreira, Elisa G M; Graef, L L

    2016-01-01

    We consider Parker particle production in the Ekpyrotic scenario (in particular in the New Ekpyrotic model) and show that the density of particles produced by the end of the phase of Ekpyrotic contraction is sufficient to lead to a hot state of matter after the bounce. Hence, no separate reheating mechanism is necessary.

  12. Scenario/Class Diagram Synthesis

    OpenAIRE

    Prabhune, Aniket; Mahajan, Reenal; Singhal, Mudita

    2003-01-01

    The scenario-synthesis problem in requirements analysis is explored in this report.The approach suggested by Khriss et al.is adapted for the domain of Digital Libraries. The results of the synthesis along with the entire transformation process are elaborated in this report.

  13. Application of multi-agent coordination methods to the design of space debris mitigation tours

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuart, Jeffrey; Howell, Kathleen; Wilson, Roby

    2016-04-01

    The growth in the number of defunct and fragmented objects near to the Earth poses a growing hazard to launch operations as well as existing on-orbit assets. Numerous studies have demonstrated the positive impact of active debris mitigation campaigns upon the growth of debris populations, but comparatively fewer investigations incorporate specific mission scenarios. Furthermore, while many active mitigation methods have been proposed, certain classes of debris objects are amenable to mitigation campaigns employing chaser spacecraft with existing chemical and low-thrust propulsive technologies. This investigation incorporates an ant colony optimization routing algorithm and multi-agent coordination via auctions into a debris mitigation tour scheme suitable for preliminary mission design and analysis as well as spacecraft flight operations.

  14. Forest fire scenario and challenges of mitigation during fire season in North East India

    OpenAIRE

    Chakraborty, K.; Mondal, P. P.; Chabukdhara, M.; Sudhakar, S.

    2014-01-01

    Forest fires are a major environmental problem in North East Region (NER) with large tracts of forest areas being affected in every season. Forest fires have become a major threat to the forest ecosystems in the region, leading to loss of timber, biodiversity, wildlife habitat and loss to other natural resources. Studies on forest fire have reported that about 50% of forest fire in the country takes place in NE region. The forest fire in NER is anthropogenic in nature. The fore...

  15. Behavioural Climate Change Mitigation Options and Their Appropriate Inclusion in Quantitative Longer Term Policy Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faber, J.; Schroten, A.; Bles, M.; Sevenster, M.; Markowska, A.; Smit, M. [CE Delft, Delft (Netherlands); Rohde, C.; Duetschke, E.; Koehler, J.; Gigli, M. [Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Karlsruhe (Germany); Zimmermann, K.; Soboh, R.; Van ' t Riet, J. [Landbouw Economisch Instituut LEI, Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2012-01-15

    Changes in consumer behaviour can lead to major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union, particularly in the areas of transport, housing and food. Behavioural changes can complement technological changes and can allow emission reduction targets to be achieved more cost-effectively overall. The study identifies 36 options for behavioural change that would cut greenhouse gas emissions. Of these, 11 particularly relevant options have been studied in detail. They include shifting to a more healthy and balanced diet, eating less meat and dairy products, buying and using a smaller car or an electric car, teleworking, adjusting room temperature and optimising ventilation. For each of the behavioural changes studied in depth, emission reduction potentials have been quantified for 2020, 2030 and 2050. The study identifies barriers to implementing the changes, and quantifies the likely effects of policy packages which could overcome these barriers. The results show that the behavioural changes that could take place simultaneously have the potential to save emissions totalling up to about 600 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent a year in 2020. This is about one-quarter of the projected annual emissions from sectors not covered by the EU emissions trading system. The savings potential is particularly high in the area of food.

  16. Beyond 'dangerous' climate change: emission scenarios for a new world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Kevin; Bows, Alice

    2011-01-13

    The Copenhagen Accord reiterates the international community's commitment to 'hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius'. Yet its preferred focus on global emission peak dates and longer-term reduction targets, without recourse to cumulative emission budgets, belies seriously the scale and scope of mitigation necessary to meet such a commitment. Moreover, the pivotal importance of emissions from non-Annex 1 nations in shaping available space for Annex 1 emission pathways received, and continues to receive, little attention. Building on previous studies, this paper uses a cumulative emissions framing, broken down to Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations, to understand the implications of rapid emission growth in nations such as China and India, for mitigation rates elsewhere. The analysis suggests that despite high-level statements to the contrary, there is now little to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface temperature at or below 2°C. Moreover, the impacts associated with 2°C have been revised upwards, sufficiently so that 2°C now more appropriately represents the threshold between 'dangerous' and 'extremely dangerous' climate change. Ultimately, the science of climate change allied with the emission scenarios for Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations suggests a radically different framing of the mitigation and adaptation challenge from that accompanying many other analyses, particularly those directly informing policy. PMID:21115511

  17. Assessment of impacts of agricultural and climate change scenarios on watershed water quantity and quality, and crop production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teshager, Awoke D.; Gassman, Philip W.; Schoof, Justin T.; Secchi, Silvia

    2016-08-01

    Modeling impacts of agricultural scenarios and climate change on surface water quantity and quality provides useful information for planning effective water, environmental and land use policies. Despite the significant impacts of agriculture on water quantity and quality, limited literature exists that describes the combined impacts of agricultural land use change and climate change on future bioenergy crop yields and watershed hydrology. In this study, the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) eco-hydrological model was used to model the combined impacts of five agricultural land use change scenarios and three downscaled climate pathways (representative concentration pathways, RCPs) that were created from an ensemble of eight atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). These scenarios were implemented in a well-calibrated SWAT model for the intensively farmed and tiled Raccoon River watershed (RRW) located in western Iowa. The scenarios were executed for the historical baseline, early century, mid-century and late century periods. The results indicate that historical and more corn intensive agricultural scenarios with higher CO2 emissions consistently result in more water in the streams and greater water quality problems, especially late in the 21st century. Planting more switchgrass, on the other hand, results in less water in the streams and water quality improvements relative to the baseline. For all given agricultural landscapes simulated, all flow, sediment and nutrient outputs increase from early-to-late century periods for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. We also find that corn and switchgrass yields are negatively impacted under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the mid- and late 21st century.

  18. Nuclear power in the 21st century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: All plausible long term energy scenarios project significant growth of global energy, especially if the Millennium Declaration on poverty eradication and the Plan of Implementation agreed at the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) are to be met. Projected growth is the fastest in developing countries. While growth for affordable energy services is not subject to debate really - the question is rather by how much - this is not the case for energy supply. 21st century energy supply systems face several challenges and uncertainties including energy resource availability, technology change, environmental compliance, reliability and security, political and social acceptance. One of the uncertainties concerns the role of nuclear power in 21st century energy supplies. Paradoxically, its near term role appears less certain that its longer term role. In the short-run, i.e., until 2020, most studies project either a slight increase, a slight decrease or no change at all. Though regional differences exist in terms of growth and decline, the effectively balance each other. Longer-term energy demand and supply studies, however, paint a different future. Analyses developed by international working groups generally project a potentially significant increase in the use of nuclear power. There are several reasons for this. Foremost, longer-term studies are not subjected to short-term policy constraints. Next, they do factor anticipated technology change and innovation into the analysis. Then resource depletion effects become more visible and environmental constraints become more stringent. The starting point of this paper is the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Based on four of the SRES scenarios, one from each of the four SRES scenario families, this paper discusses the compatibility requirements of each for nuclear energy in terms of economics, environment, supply security, resources, waste

  19. FEMA Hazard Mitigation Grants Program Summary - API

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — The Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP, CFDA Number: 97.039) provides grants to States and local governments to implement long-term hazard mitigation measures...

  20. FEMA Hazard Mitigation Grants Program Summary

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — The Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP, CFDA Number: 97.039) provides grants to States and local governments to implement long-term hazard mitigation measures...

  1. IMS Mitigation Target Areas - 2010 [ds673

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Department of Resources — Mitigation Target Areas (MTA) were developed by the California Department of Fish and Game for the Interim Mitigation Strategy (IMS). The MTAs are an identification...

  2. Climate Policy Must Favour Mitigation Over Adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    SCHUMACHER, Ingmar

    2016-01-01

    In climate change policy, adaptation tends to be viewed as beingas important as mitigation. In this article we present a simple yet generalargument for which mitigation must be preferred to adaptation.The argument rests on the observation that mitigation is a public goodwhile adaptation is a private one. This implies that the more one disaggregatesthe units in a social welfare function, i.e. the more one teasesout the public good nature of mitigation, the lower is average incomeand thus less ...

  3. Regional transport sector mitigation options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Peter [EECG Consultants, Gaborone (Botswana)

    1998-10-01

    The rationale for conducting climate change mitigation studies in the transport sector is on the premise that: The transport sector is the second largest consumer of fossil fuels in the region; The regional transport sector is an area with high opportunity for infrastructural development under UNFCCC financial mechanism; The regional transport sector is crucial in the SADC region for trade and coupled with the Trade Protocol will play a major role in development hence the need to make it efficient in terms of energy demand and provision of services; The sector offers many mitigation options but with a challenge to evaluate their energy saving and GHG saving potential and yet there is need to quantify possible emission reduction for possible future emission trading. This is also a sector with potential to qualify for financing through Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) recently stipulated in the Kyoto Protocol. (au)

  4. Regional transport sector mitigation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The rationale for conducting climate change mitigation studies in the transport sector is on the premise that: The transport sector is the second largest consumer of fossil fuels in the region; The regional transport sector is an area with high opportunity for infrastructural development under UNFCCC financial mechanism; The regional transport sector is crucial in the SADC region for trade and coupled with the Trade Protocol will play a major role in development hence the need to make it efficient in terms of energy demand and provision of services; The sector offers many mitigation options but with a challenge to evaluate their energy saving and GHG saving potential and yet there is need to quantify possible emission reduction for possible future emission trading. This is also a sector with potential to qualify for financing through Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) recently stipulated in the Kyoto Protocol. (au)

  5. Water demand and supply co-adaptation to mitigate climate change impacts in agricultural water management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuliani, Matteo; Mainardi, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea; Gandolfi, Claudio

    2013-04-01

    Agriculture is the main land use in the world and represents also the sector characterised by the highest water demand. To meet projected growth in human population and per-capita food demand, agricultural production will have to significantly increase in the next decades. Moreover, water availability is nowadays a limiting factor for agricultural production, and is expected to decrease over the next century due to climate change impacts. To effectively face a changing climate, agricultural systems have therefore to adapt their strategies (e.g., changing crops, shifting sowing and harvesting dates, adopting high efficiency irrigation techniques). Yet, farmer adaptation is only one part of the equation because changes in water supply management strategies, as a response to climate change, might impact on farmers' decisions as well. Despite the strong connections between water demand and supply, being the former dependent on agricultural practices, which are affected by the water available that depends on the water supply strategies designed according to a forecasted demand, an analysis of their reciprocal feedbacks is still missing. Most of the recent studies has indeed considered the two problems separately, either analysing the impact of climate change on farmers' decisions for a given water supply scenario or optimising water supply for different water demand scenarios. In this work, we explicitly connect the two systems (demand and supply) by activating an information loop between farmers and water managers, to integrate the two problems and study the co-evolution and co-adaptation of water demand and water supply systems under climate change. The proposed approach is tested on a real-world case study, namely the Lake Como serving the Muzza-Bassa Lodigiana irrigation district (Italy). In particular, given an expectation of water availability, the farmers are able to solve a yearly planning problem to decide the most profitable crop to plant. Knowing the farmers

  6. Identifying and Mitigating Insider Threats

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Probst, Christian W.

    2011-01-01

    Organisations face many threats that coarsely can be separated in inside threats and outside threats. Threats from insiders are especially hard to counter since insiders have special knowledge and privileges. Therefore, malicious insider actions are hard to distinguish from benign actions. After ...... discussing new definitions of insiders and insider threats, this article gives an overview of how to mitigate insider threats and discusses conflicting goals when dealing with insider threats....

  7. Mitigating Greenhouse Gases in Agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Muller, Adrian; Jawtusch, Julia; Gattinger, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    Climate change has severe adverse effects on the livelihood of millions of the world’s poorest people. Increasing temperatures, water scarcity and droughts, flooding and storms affect food security. Thus, mitigation actions are needed to pave the way for a sustainable future for all. Currently, agriculture directly contributes about 10-15 percent to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Adding emissions from deforestation and land use change for animal feed production, this rises to about 30...

  8. 7 CFR 652.39 - Mitigating factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Mitigating factors. 652.39 Section 652.39 Agriculture... AGRICULTURE SUPPORT ACTIVITIES TECHNICAL SERVICE PROVIDER ASSISTANCE Decertification § 652.39 Mitigating..., the deciding official will take into consideration any mitigating factors. Examples of...

  9. 34 CFR 81.33 - Mitigating circumstances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 34 Education 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Mitigating circumstances. 81.33 Section 81.33 Education... for Recovery of Funds § 81.33 Mitigating circumstances. (a) A recipient that is a State or local... funds is not required to return any amount that is attributable to the mitigating...

  10. 32 CFR 989.22 - Mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... clearly whether mitigation measures (40 CFR 1508.20) must be implemented for the alternative selected. If... EPF informed of the mitigation status. The EPF reports its status, through the MAJCOM, to HQ USAF/A7CI when requested. Upon request, the EPF must also provide the results of relevant mitigation...

  11. 78 FR 21275 - Station Blackout Mitigation Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-10

    ...; ] NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION 10 CFR Parts 50 and 52 RIN 3150-AJ08 Station Blackout Mitigation Strategies... plant licensees' station blackout mitigation strategies. Appendix A of the draft regulatory basis... involving station blackout mitigation strategies, the NRC is making preliminary documents publicly...

  12. The Danish Scenario Workshop Report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brodersen, Søsser; Jørgensen, Michael Søgaard

    workshop in March 2003 by identifying potential participants, producing informative material, sending out invitations, planning and arranging how the workshop were to be conducted and further to make follow-up efforts to ensure a sufficient amount of participants in each Interest group. A total of 22...... participants (excluded the two moderators) participated in the Danish scenario workshop. At the Danish scenario workshop we operated with five Interest groups: Science Shops, students, university researchers, civil society organisations and university policy makers. Each Interest group developed a positive and......: Knowledge and project processes: Knowledge sharing and dialogue in focus throughout the whole project co-operation. Follow-up activities after a project co-operation have ended. Salary to clients for supervision. The theme discussions were made in mixed groups, containing participants from each Interest...

  13. Climate change mitigation in Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment (UCCEE) in conjunction with the Southern Centre for Energy and Environment (SCEE) hosted a conference on 'Climate Change Mitigation in Africa' between 18 and 20 May. The Conference set out to address the following main objectives: to present to a wider audience the results of UNEP/GEF and related country studies; to present results of regional mitigation analysis; exchange of information with similar projects in the region; to expose countries to conceptual and methodological issues related to climate change mitigation; to provide input to national development using climate change related objectives. This volume contains reports of the presentations and discussions, which took place at the conference at Victoria Falls between 18 and 20 May 1998. Representatives of 11 country teams made presentations and in addition two sub-regions were discussed: the Maghreb region and SADC. The conference was attended by a total of 63 people, representing 22 African countries as well as international organisations. (EG)

  14. Climate change mitigation in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mackenzie, G.A.; Turkson, J.K.; Davidson, O.R. [eds.

    1998-10-01

    The UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment (UCCEE) in conjunction with the Southern Centre for Energy and Environment (SCEE) hosted a conference on `Climate Change Mitigation in Africa` between 18 and 20 May. The Conference set out to address the following main objectives: to present to a wider audience the results of UNEP/GEF and related country studies; to present results of regional mitigation analysis; exchange of information with similar projects in the region; to expose countries to conceptual and methodological issues related to climate change mitigation; to provide input to national development using climate change related objectives. This volume contains reports of the presentations and discussions, which took place at the conference at Victoria Falls between 18 and 20 May 1998. Representatives of 11 country teams made presentations and in addition two sub-regions were discussed: the Maghreb region and SADC. The conference was attended by a total of 63 people, representing 22 African countries as well as international organisations. (EG)

  15. Comparing long term energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Major projection studies by international organizations and senior analysts have been compared with reference to individual key parameters (population, energy demand/supply, resources, technology, emissions and global warming) to understand trends and implications of the different scenarios. Then, looking at the long term (i.e., 2050 and beyond), parameters and trends have been compared together to understand and quantify whether and when possible crisis or market turbulence might occur due to shortage of resources or environmental problems

  16. Advanced scenarios for ITER operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In thermonuclear fusion research using magnetic confinement, the tokamak is the leading candidate for achieving conditions required for a reactor. An international experiment, ITER is proposed as the next essential and critical step on the path to demonstrating the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion energy. ITER is to produce and study plasmas dominated by self heating. This would give unique opportunities to explore, in reactor relevant conditions, the physics of α-particle heating, plasma turbulence and turbulent transport, stability limits to the plasma pressure and exhaust of power and particles. Important new results obtained in experiments, theory and modelling, enable an improved understanding of the physical processes occurring in tokamak plasmas and give enhanced confidence in ITER achieving its goals. In particular, progress has been made in research to raise the performance of tokamaks, aimed to extend the discharge pulse length towards steady-state operation (advanced scenarios). Standard tokamak discharges have a current density increasing monotonically towards the centre of the plasma. Advanced scenarios on the other hand use a modified current density profile. Different advanced scenarios range from (i) plasmas that sustain a central region with a flat current density profile (zero magnetic shear), capable of operating stationary at high plasma pressure, to (ii) discharges with an off axis maximum of the current density profile (reversed magnetic shear in the core), able to form internal transport barriers, to increase the confinement of the plasma. The physics of advanced tokamak discharges is described, together with an overview of recent results from different tokamak experiments. International collaboration between experiments aims to provide a better understanding, control and optimisation of these plasmas. The ability to explore advanced scenarios in ITER is very desirable, in order to verify the result obtained in experiments

  17. Scenarios and Strategies for Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.

  18. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian G. Cullis

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length- and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  19. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ian G. CULLIS; Nikos NIKIFORAKIS; Peter FRANKL; Philip BLAKELY; Paul BENNETT; Paul GREENWOOD

    2016-01-01

    The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs) often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length-and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  20. Quantifying and Valuing Potential Climate Change Impacts on Coral Reefs in the United States: Comparison of Two Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Lane, Diana R.; Richard C. Ready; Buddemeier, Robert W.; Martinich, Jeremy A.; Kate Cardamone Shouse; Cameron W Wobus

    2013-01-01

    The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a "business as usual" (BAU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full...

  1. Nutrient pollution mitigation measures across Europe are resilient under future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wade, Andrew; Skeffington, Richard; Couture, Raoul; Erlandsson, Martin; Groot, Simon; Halliday, Sarah; Harezlak, Valesca; Hejzlar, Joseph; Jackson-Blake, Leah; Lepistö, Ahti; Papastergiadou, Eva; Psaltopoulos, Demetrios; Riera, Joan; Rankinen, Katri; Skuras, Dimitris; Trolle, Dennis; Whitehead, Paul; Dunn, Sarah; Bucak, Tuba

    2016-04-01

    The key results from the application of catchment-scale biophysical models to assess the likely effectiveness of nutrient pollution mitigation measures set in the context of projected land management and climate change are presented. The assessment is based on the synthesis of modelled outputs of daily river flow, river and lake nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, and lake chlorophyll-a, for baseline (1981-2010) and scenario (2031-2060) periods for nine study sites across Europe. Together the nine sites represent a sample of key climate and land management types. The robustness and uncertainty in the daily, seasonal and long-term modelled outputs was assessed prior to the scenario runs. Credible scenarios of land-management changes were provided by social scientists and economists familiar with each study site, whilst likely mitigation measures were derived from local stakeholder consultations and cost-effectiveness assessments. Modelled mitigation options were able to reduce nutrient concentrations, and there was no evidence here that they were less effective under future climate. With less certainty, mitigation options could affect the ecological status of waters at these sites in a positive manner, leading to improvement in Water Framework Directive status at some sites. However, modelled outcomes for sites in southern Europe highlighted that increased evaporation and decreased precipitation will cause much lower flows leading to adverse impacts of river and lake ecology. Uncertainties in the climate models, as represented by three GCM-RCM combinations, did not affect this overall picture much.

  2. On Recovery of the Ozone Layer in the Northern Hemisphere in the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larin, Igor

    2014-05-01

    Time recovery of the ozone layer in the latitudinal zones of 0°-85° N, 0°-30° N, 30°-60° N and 60°-85° N in the 21st century has been evaluated. Evaluations have been made using an interactive chemical dynamical radiative two-dimensional (2-D) model of the middle atmosphere Socrates (height 0-120 km). As initial data for calculations for the first time the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 have been used. According to the scenario RCP 4.5 a stabilization of the radiative forcing must occur before the end of the twenty-first century, and according to the scenario RCP 6.0 - in the 22nd century. It has been shown that under both scenarios, the recovery of the ozone layer in the northern hemisphere (0°-85° N) can take place in 2035, and in zones of 0°-30° N, 30°-60° N and 60°-85° N does in 2020, 2030 and 2035, respectively. It has been also shown that after recovery the ozone layer will continue to grow and by the end of the 21st century will reach the stationary level exceeding undisturbed level of 1960 at 2.7% (scenario RCP 4.5) and 3.6% (scenario RCP 6.0) in zone 0°-85° N. It seems to be not smaller ecological threat than depletion of the ozone layer at the end of the twentieth century. The results obtained are in good agreement with the known literary data (see, for example, Table 3-3 in "Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010"), indicating that the model Socrates and "concentration" scenarios of IPCC can successfully be used for such calculations.

  3. Distributed Trajectory Flexibility Preservation for Traffic Complexity Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Idris, Husni; Wing, David; Delahaye, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    The growing demand for air travel is increasing the need for mitigation of air traffic congestion and complexity problems, which are already at high levels. At the same time new information and automation technologies are enabling the distribution of tasks and decisions from the service providers to the users of the air traffic system, with potential capacity and cost benefits. This distribution of tasks and decisions raises the concern that independent user actions will decrease the predictability and increase the complexity of the traffic system, hence inhibiting and possibly reversing any potential benefits. In answer to this concern, the authors propose the introduction of decision-making metrics for preserving user trajectory flexibility. The hypothesis is that such metrics will make user actions naturally mitigate traffic complexity. In this paper, the impact of using these metrics on traffic complexity is investigated. The scenarios analyzed include aircraft in en route airspace with each aircraft meeting a required time of arrival in a one-hour time horizon while mitigating the risk of loss of separation with the other aircraft, thus preserving its trajectory flexibility. The experiments showed promising results in that the individual trajectory flexibility preservation induced self-separation and self-organization effects in the overall traffic situation. The effects were quantified using traffic complexity metrics based on Lyapunov exponents and traffic proximity.

  4. Designing Asteroid Impact Scenario Trajectories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chodas, Paul

    2016-05-01

    In order to study some of the technical and geopolitical issues of dealing with an asteroid on impact trajectory, a number of hypothetical impact scenarios have been presented over the last ten years or so. These have been used, for example, at several of the Planetary Defense Conferences (PDCs), as well as in tabletop exercises with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), along with other government agencies. The exercise at the 2015 PDC involved most of the attendees, consisted of seven distinct steps (“injects”), and with all the presentations and discussions, took up nearly 10 hours of conference time. The trajectory for the PDC15 scenario was entirely realistic, and was posted ahead of the meeting. It was made available in the NEO Program’s Horizons ephemeris service so that users could , for example, design their own deflection missions. The simulated asteroid and trajectory had to meet numerous very exacting requirements: becoming observable on the very first day of the conference, yet remaining very difficult to observe for the following 7 years, and far enough away from Earth that it was out of reach of radar until just before impact. It had to be undetectable in the past, and yet provide multiple perihelion opportunities for deflection in the future. It had to impact in a very specific region of the Earth, a specific number of years after discovery. When observations of the asteroid are simulated to generate an uncertainty region, that entire region must impact the Earth along an axis that cuts across specific regions of the Earth, the “risk corridor”. This is important because asteroid deflections generally move an asteroid impact point along this corridor. One scenario had a requirement that the asteroid pass through a keyhole several years before impact. The PDC15 scenario had an additional constraint that multiple simulated kinetic impactor missions altered the trajectory at a deflection point midway between discovery and impact

  5. 21st Century Skills Map

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partnership for 21st Century Skills, 2011

    2011-01-01

    The Partnership for 21st Century Skills (P21) has forged alliances with key national organizations representing the core academic subjects, including Social Studies, English, Math, Science, Geography, World Languages and the Arts. These collaborations have resulted in the development of 21st Century Skills Maps that illustrate the essential…

  6. A century of antenna development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olver, A. D.

    The paper describes a century of antenna development as part of a century of radio communications. This historical review examines, chronologically, the pre-Hertz period, Hertz antennas, the microwave optics period, the Marconi era, short waves, theoretical design before and after computers, and radar. Consideration is also given to mobile antennas, microwave comunications, radio astronomy, and satellite comunications.

  7. Catchment scale afforestation for mitigating flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Mhari; Quinn, Paul; Bathurst, James; Birkinshaw, Stephen

    2016-04-01

    After the 2013-14 floods in the UK there were calls to 'forest the uplands' as a solution to reducing flood risk across the nation. At present, 1 in 6 homes in Britain are at risk of flooding and current EU legislation demands a sustainable, 'nature-based solution'. However, the role of forests as a natural flood management technique remains highly controversial, due to a distinct lack of robust evidence into its effectiveness in reducing flood risk during extreme events. SHETRAN, physically-based spatially-distributed hydrological models of the Irthing catchment and Wark forest sub-catchments (northern England) have been developed in order to test the hypothesis of the effect trees have on flood magnitude. The advanced physically-based models have been designed to model scale-related responses from 1, through 10, to 100km2, a first study of the extent to which afforestation and woody debris runoff attenuation features (RAFs) may help to mitigate floods at the full catchment scale (100-1000 km2) and on a national basis. Furthermore, there is a need to analyse the extent to which land management practices, and the installation of nature-based RAFs, such as woody debris dams, in headwater catchments can attenuate flood-wave movement, and potentially reduce downstream flood risk. The impacts of riparian planting and the benefits of adding large woody debris of several designs and on differing sizes of channels has also been simulated using advanced hydrodynamic (HiPIMS) and hydrological modelling (SHETRAN). With the aim of determining the effect forestry may have on flood frequency, 1000 years of generated rainfall data representative of current conditions has been used to determine the difference between current land-cover, different distributions of forest cover and the defining scenarios - complete forest removal and complete afforestation of the catchment. The simulations show the percentage of forestry required to have a significant impact on mitigating

  8. Freshwater Availability in the Brahmaputra River Basin Under Projected Climate and Land Use Land Cover Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pervez, M. S.; Henebry, G. M.

    2014-12-01

    We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to evaluate sensitivities and patterns in freshwater availability due to projected climate and land use changes in the Brahmaputra basin. The daily observed discharge at Bahadurabad station in Bangladesh was used to calibrate the model and analyze uncertainties with SUFI-II algorithm for 1988-1997, and to validate the model for 1998-2004. The R2, NS, and biases were, respectively, 0.85, 0.85, and -3.2% during calibration, and 0.89, 0.88, and -4.4% during validation for basinwide simulations of monthly streamflow. The sensitivities and impacts of projected climate and land use changes on basin hydrological components were simulated and analyzed relative to a baseline scenario of 1988-2004. Sensitivity analysis identified a doubling of CO2 concentration to 660 ppm caused average annual evapotranspiration (ET) to decrease by 12%, resulting in increases in water yield by 5%, streamflow by 6%, and groundwater recharge by 8%. With an increase in temperature, annual average ET was predicted to increase, while responses of water yield and streamflow varied by season. An increase in precipitation caused proportional increases in water yield, streamflow, and groundwater recharge, but led to only minor impacts on ET. Annual average water yield, soil water content, ET, streamflow, and groundwater recharge were predicted to increase with higher seasonal variability in response to climate and land use change projections for the A1B and A2 scenarios generated from downscaled CGCM3.1 and IMAGE, respectively. Water yield, soil water content, streamflow, and groundwater recharge were predicted to increase with a strong increasing trend during August to October, indicating exacerbated flood potential, while during May to July, the hydrological components-except soil water content-were predicted to decrease with a strong decreasing trend, indicating enhanced drought potential throughout the 21st century. Overall, results indicated that the

  9. Predicting environmental mitigation requirements for hydropower projects through the integration of biophysical and socio-political geographies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeRolph, Christopher R; Schramm, Michael P; Bevelhimer, Mark S

    2016-10-01

    Uncertainty about environmental mitigation needs at existing and proposed hydropower projects makes it difficult for stakeholders to minimize environmental impacts. Hydropower developers and operators desire tools to better anticipate mitigation requirements, while natural resource managers and regulators need tools to evaluate different mitigation scenarios and order effective mitigation. Here we sought to examine the feasibility of using a suite of multi-faceted explanatory variables within a spatially explicit modeling framework to fit predictive models for future environmental mitigation requirements at hydropower projects across the conterminous U.S. Using a database comprised of mitigation requirements from more than 300 hydropower project licenses, we were able to successfully fit models for nearly 50 types of environmental mitigation and to apply the predictive models to a set of more than 500 non-powered dams identified as having hydropower potential. The results demonstrate that mitigation requirements are functions of a range of factors, from biophysical to socio-political. Project developers can use these models to inform cost projections and design considerations, while regulators can use the models to more quickly identify likely environmental issues and potential solutions, hopefully resulting in more timely and more effective decisions on environmental mitigation. PMID:27280379

  10. Scenarios of suitable areas of sugarcane crops in Brazil regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koga-Vicente, A.

    2011-12-01

    The use of ethanol produced from sugarcane presents advantages to face climate changes as adaptation measure (reduce dependency of fossil fuel) and mitigation measure (reduce GHG emissions and captures CO2). Whereas the increasing demand of ethanol production and the importance of the planning in order to meet a future demand, this work aimed to evaluate suitable areas for sugarcane crops in two Brazilian regions in present and in possible climate change conditions. Scenarios were generated considering climatic risk to sugarcane crops (present and based in IPCC projections for changes in temperature and precipitation values); land available and able to cultivation (baseline is actual conditions and the projections consider public policies; urban and protected areas were eliminated; regions that already have sugarcane crops were eliminated) and food security (areas that are used to food production crops were eliminated). Scenarios show areas with potential for expansion of sugarcane crops in the present conditions and the possible changes that could occur in a climate change scenario. The results can be used to drive public policies in ethanol sector.

  11. Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merriam, Eric R; Petty, J Todd; Strager, Michael P

    2016-01-01

    There is a critical need for tools and methodologies capable of managing aquatic systems within heavily impacted watersheds. Current efforts often fall short as a result of an inability to quantify and predict complex cumulative effects of current and future land use scenarios at relevant spatial scales. The goal of this manuscript is to provide methods for conducting a targeted watershed assessment that enables resource managers to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for use within a scenario analysis management framework. Sites are first selected for inclusion within the watershed assessment by identifying sites that fall along independent gradients and combinations of known stressors. Field and laboratory techniques are then used to obtain data on the physical, chemical, and biological effects of multiple land use activities. Multiple linear regression analysis is then used to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for predicting aquatic conditions. Lastly, methods for incorporating cumulative effects models within a scenario analysis framework for guiding management and regulatory decisions (e.g., permitting and mitigation) within actively developing watersheds are discussed and demonstrated for 2 sub-watersheds within the mountaintop mining region of central Appalachia. The watershed assessment and management approach provided herein enables resource managers to facilitate economic and development activity while protecting aquatic resources and producing opportunity for net ecological benefits through targeted remediation. PMID:27501287

  12. Directions for advanced use of nuclear power in century XXI

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walter, C E

    1999-05-01

    Nuclear power can provide a significant contribution to electricity generation and meet other needs of the world and the US during the next century provided that certain directions are taken to achieve its public acceptance. These directions include formulation of projections of population, energy consumption, and energy resources over a responsible period of time. These projections will allow assessment of cumulative effects on the environment and on fixed resources. Use of fossil energy resources in a century of growing demand for energy must be considered in the context of long-term environmental damage and resource depletion. Although some question the validity of these consequences, they can be mitigated by use of advanced fast reactor technology. It must be demonstrated that nuclear power technology is safe, resistant to material diversion for weapon use, and economical. An unbiased examination of all the issues related to energy use, especially of electricity, is an essential direction to take.

  13. Avoiding HFC growth is critical for keeping global warming below 2 °C during the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Ramanathan

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available There is growing international interest in mitigating climate change during the early part of this century by reducing emissions of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs, in addition to reducing emissions of CO2. The SLCPs include methane (CH4, black carbon aerosols (BC, tropospheric ozone (O3 and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs. Recent studies have estimated that by mitigating emissions of CH4, BC, and O3 using available technologies, about 0.5 to 0.6 °C warming can be avoided by mid-21st century. Here we show that avoiding production and use of high-GWP (global warming potential HFCs by using technologically feasible low-GWP substitutes to meet the increasing global demand can avoid as much as another 0.5 °C warming by end of the century, therefore significantly reducing the rate of warming and lowering the probability of exceeding the 2 °C warming threshold during this century.

  14. Nuclear disasters at Chornobyl NPP, Fukushima NPP and nuclear power engineering in the 21- century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The article presents a brief analysis of nuclear accidents at the Chornobyl NPP 91986) and Fukushima NPP (2011), discusses causes and scenarios of the accidents. The radioactive contamination of the environment resulting from the disasters is characterized, and top-priority actions for mitigation of the consequences and protection of public are discussed

  15. The scenario approach to possible futures for oil and natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shell has been using scenario planning for 40 years to help deepen its strategic thinking. Developing and applying scenarios is part of an ongoing process in Shell that encourages decision-makers to explore the features, uncertainties, and boundaries of the future landscape, and engage with alternative points of view. Shell scenarios go beyond conventional energy outlooks and consider long-term trends in economics, energy supply and demand, geopolitical shifts and social change. They are based on plausible assumptions and quantification, and include the impact of different patterns of individual and collective choices. Shell′s latest scenario publication, the New Lens Scenarios, published in 2013, provides an in-depth analysis of how economic, social and political forces might play out over the 21st century, as well as their consequences for the global energy system and environment. Its ‘Mountains’ and ‘Oceans’ scenarios set out two distinct paths the world might take in the decades ahead. They reinforce the urgency and complexity of addressing the world's resource and environmental stresses, and highlight the need for business, government and society to find new ways to collaborate, fostering policies that promote the development and use of cleaner energy, and improve energy efficiency. - Highlights: • Shell has used scenarios to deepen its strategic thinking for 40 years. • Shell scenarios cover a broader set of drivers than traditional energy outlooks. • Shell's New Lens Scenarios were published in February 2013. • They look at trends in the economy, politics and energy over the 21st century. • Coordinated policies are essential to meeting the world's rising energy needs

  16. Scenarios for the assessment of urban exposures after radioactive contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Accidents involving radioactive material are not frequent but may include releases of radionuclides to the air, land or waterways. These releases are usually uncontrollable and may lead to doses in the public in excess of the reference levels established by regulations defined by the national regulatory agencies of each country. Although they had occurred sporadically since the last century, it was observed that, after the emergency phase, the public concern is enhanced when they feel that there is an unpreparedness of authorities responsible for remediation actions, due to the lack of definition of strategies to be adopted in the long term after such events. The aim of this work is to describe reference urban scenarios, considering the characteristics observed in residential and free access areas of urban centers. These scenarios were developed based on the counties surrounding the Brazilian nuclear power plant. Considering the counties within 50 km from the nuclear power plant, nine belong to the state of Rio de Janeiro and seven belong to São Paulo state; the highest population densities were observed in five counties of Rio de Janeiro. Based on the different types of residences and outdoor areas observed in these 16 counties, six reference scenarios for urban areas were developed including areas comprised by four types of residential houses (with low, medium and high shielding building material and houses in a row), apartments in buildings, and park areas with lawn and trees. The characteristics of each of these scenarios were raised through Google Earth images considering 1 km2 of different locations comprised by each type of area defined. In a next step, the information obtained in each scenario shall be used in computer simulations to characterize the effects and consequences on public exposure of the application of decontamination procedures. (authors)

  17. The IIASA'83 scenario of energy development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The prospects for natural gas as a major source of energy supply are good. Spurred by the energy crises of the 'seventies, recent exploration for gas resources as well as technological advances in deep drilling have enhanced the picture of gas as a plentiful fossil resource. Technological improvements in transporting gas over large distances, as piped gas and as a liquid, suggest the strong possibility of gas as an important commodity in energy trade. In addition, gas is a high quality and relatively clean fuel, which is especially attractive in today's world of environmental concern for pollution emissions from energy combustion. Such developments led to the design of the IIASA'83 Scenario of Energy Development, which explored the techno-economic feasibility of the expanded use of gas in energy systems. The work drew on the findings of the IIASA global energy analysis, documented in 'Energy in a Finite World'. All countries of the world were covered in the quantitative analysis, grouped regionally by similarity in energy resources and economic structure and not necessarily on the basis of geographic proximity. The period studied was necessarily the next half century, from 1980 to 2030, in view of the inertia in technological and economic systems and this constraint on the development of energy infrastructures. Global primary energy consumption increases some twofold from 10 TW.a/a to 21.9 TW.a/a over the next 50 years, while economic output globally grows some threefold. The breakdown of global primary energy consumption indicates an absolute increase in the use of all primary energy sources over the study period, with fossil fuels continuing to supply the lion's share of primary energy. The buildup of non-fossil energy sources to global supply levels by 2030 is likely to be constrained by the high capital investments required at a period of modest economic growth and by the sociopolitical controversy surrounding the use of some of these technologies. (author)

  18. Voltage unbalance mitigation in LV networks using three-phase PV systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia Bajo, Cristina; Hashemi Toghroljerdi, Seyedmostafa; Bækhøj Kjær, Søren;

    2015-01-01

    In this paper a new method is proposed to mitigate voltage unbalance caused by single-phase solar inverters in low voltage (LV) networks. The method is based on uneven reactive power absorption and injection by three-phase solar inverters. Independent control of each phase is performed to achieve...... this uneven injection. The average values of phase voltages at the connection points of the photovoltaic (PV) inverters are used as the references for the balancing algorithm. Voltage unbalance mitigation is achieved by use of this method in different scenarios with variable three-phase and single...

  19. Deterministic and Nondeterministic Behavior of Earthquakes and Hazard Mitigation Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanamori, H.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquakes exhibit both deterministic and nondeterministic behavior. Deterministic behavior is controlled by length and time scales such as the dimension of seismogenic zones and plate-motion speed. Nondeterministic behavior is controlled by the interaction of many elements, such as asperities, in the system. Some subduction zones have strong deterministic elements which allow forecasts of future seismicity. For example, the forecasts of the 2010 Mw=8.8 Maule, Chile, earthquake and the 2012 Mw=7.6, Costa Rica, earthquake are good examples in which useful forecasts were made within a solid scientific framework using GPS. However, even in these cases, because of the nondeterministic elements uncertainties are difficult to quantify. In some subduction zones, nondeterministic behavior dominates because of complex plate boundary structures and defies useful forecasts. The 2011 Mw=9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake may be an example in which the physical framework was reasonably well understood, but complex interactions of asperities and insufficient knowledge about the subduction-zone structures led to the unexpected tragic consequence. Despite these difficulties, broadband seismology, GPS, and rapid data processing-telemetry technology can contribute to effective hazard mitigation through scenario earthquake approach and real-time warning. A scale-independent relation between M0 (seismic moment) and the source duration, t, can be used for the design of average scenario earthquakes. However, outliers caused by the variation of stress drop, radiation efficiency, and aspect ratio of the rupture plane are often the most hazardous and need to be included in scenario earthquakes. The recent development in real-time technology would help seismologists to cope with, and prepare for, devastating tsunamis and earthquakes. Combining a better understanding of earthquake diversity and modern technology is the key to effective and comprehensive hazard mitigation practices.

  20. Scenarios for the future; Framtidsscenarier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: `Technology on the throne` (market rule/high growth); `Intense competition` (market rule/low growth); `Monopoly takes over` (political rule/high growth); and `Green local society` (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  1. Quantifying the Benefit of Early Climate Change Mitigation in Avoiding Biodiversity Loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, R.; Vanderwal, J.; Price, J.; Welbergen, J.; Atkinson, I. M.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Osborn, T.; Shoo, L.; Jarvis, A.; Williams, S.; Lowe, J. A.

    2014-12-01

    Quantitative simulations of the global-scale benefits of climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss are presented. Previous studies have projected widespread global and regional impacts of climate change on biodiversity. However, these have focused on analysis of business-as-usual scenarios, with no explicit mitigation policy included. This study finds that early, stringent mitigation would avoid a large proportion of the impacts of climate change induced biodiversity loss projected for the 2080s. Furthermore, despite the large number of studies addressing extinction risks in particular species groups, few studies have explored the issue of potential range loss in common and widespread species. Our study is a comprehensive global scale analysis of 48,786 common and widespread species. We show that without climate change mitigation, 57+/-6% of the plants and 34+/-7% of the animals studied are likely to lose over 50% of their present climatic range by the 2080s. This estimate incorporates realistic, taxon-specific dispersal rates. With stringent mitigation, in which emissions peak in 2016 and are reduced by 5% annually thereafter, these losses are reduced by 60%. Furthermore, with stringent mitigation, global temperature rises more slowly, allowing an additional three decades for biodiversity to adapt to a temperature rise of 2C above pre-industrial levels. The work also shows that even with mitigation not all the impacts can now be avoided, and ecosystems and biodiversity generally has a very limited capacity to adapt. Delay in mitigation substantially reduces the percentage of impacts that can be avoided, for example if emissions do not peak until 2030, the percentage of losses that can be avoided declines to 40%. Since even small declines in common and widespread species can disrupt ecosystem function and services, these results indicate that without mitigation, globally widespread losses in ecosystem service provision are to be expected.

  2. Impact of explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuccaro, G.; Cacace, F.; Spence, R. J. S.; Baxter, P. J.

    2008-12-01

    scenario are highlighted. The results show the high sensitivity of hazard combinations in time and space distribution and address how to mitigate building vulnerability to subsequent eruptive phenomena [Baxter, P., Spence, R., Zuccaro, G., 2008-this issue. Risk mitigation and emergency measures at Vesuvius]. The first part of the work describes the numerical modelling and the methodology adopted to evaluate the resistance of buildings under the combined action of volcanic phenomena. Those considered here for this multi-hazard approach are limited to the following: earthquakes, pyroclastic flows and ash falls. Because of the lack of a systematic and extensive database of building damages observed after eruptions of such intensity of the past, approaches to this work must take a hybrid form of stochastic and deterministic analyses, taking into account written histories of volcanic eruptions and expertise from field geologists to build up a semi-deterministic model of the possible combinations of the above hazards that are situated both in time and space. Once a range of possible scenarios has been determined, a full stochastic method can be applied to find a sub-set of permutations and combinations of possible effects. This preliminary study of identification of the possible combination of the phenomena, subdividing them into those which are discrete and those which are continuous in time and space, enables consideration the vulnerability functions of the combinations to be feasible. In previous works [Spence, R., Brichieri-Colombi, N., Holdsworth, F., Baxter, P., Zuccaro, G., 2004a. Vesuvius: building vulnerability and human casualty estimation for a pyroclastic flow (25 pages). J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 133, 321-343. ISSN 0377-0273; Spence, R., Zuccaro, G., Petrazzuoli, S., Baxter, P.J., 2004b. The resistance of buildings to pyroclastic flows: theoretical and experimental studies in relation to Vesuvius, ASCE Nat. Hazards Rev. 5, 48-50. ISSN 1527-6988; Spence, R., Kelman

  3. Emergent physics: Fermi point scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Volovik, G E

    2008-01-01

    The Fermi-point scenario of emergent gravity has the following consequences: gravity emerges together with fermionic and bosonic matter; emergent fermionic matter consists of massless Weyl fermions; emergent bosonic matter consists of gauge fields; Lorentz symmetry persists well above the Planck energy; space-time is naturally 4-dimensional; Universe is naturally flat; cosmological constant is naturally small or zero; underlying physics is based on discrete symmetries; `quantum gravity' cannot be obtained by quantization of Einstein equations; there is no contradiction between quantum mechanics and gravity; etc.

  4. Climate protection scenario 2050. Summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The report on the meeting of the experts on modeling of the climate protection scenario 2050 summarizes the substantial results: 80-90% reduction the greenhouse gas emissions means a reduction of fossil energy carriers by up to 98%. The electricity generation industry has to provide most of the reduction since esp. agriculture cannot reduce the CO2 emissions. The amount of renewable energy for electricity production has to increase to about 95%. The economic analysis shows that a strategy of energy efficiency and electricity production from renewable energy sources plus product innovation is a no-regret strategy that will be advantageous for Germany in a long-term.

  5. Mitigation of structureborne noise nuisance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Wing P.

    2005-09-01

    This paper presents a noise complaint case which was solved by me a few years ago in Hong Kong. A newlywed couple in the residential unit complained to the Government that the noise emitted from the pump room directly beneath their unit was very annoying, especially in the night-time period. The owner of the building was then required by the Government to mitigate the noise to the night-time statutory noise requirement within 30 days, otherwise he would be prosecuted. Ideally, the structureborne noise from the pump room could be effectively mitigated by installation of floating slab and vibration isolators under the pumps. Also, the water tanks and water pipes were required to be isolated from the walls and floor. However, this work was impossible to be completed within 30 days to stop the prosecution. Water supply to the above residents would be seriously interrupted during the construction period. As the only noise parameter of the statutory requirement was 30 minute A-weighted Leq, the most effective and practical way in this exigent situation was to reduce the pump operation time within any 30 minute period to decrease the Leq values. In addition, the water pipes and pumps were also required to be isolated from the walls and floor with resilient materials to break the vibration channels. These noise mitigation measures were successfully applied to the pump room before the end of the 30 days. Finally, the noise levels inside the complainant's unit were found to meet the statutory requirement. The noise complaint case was then closed by the Government.

  6. Verification for PWSCC mitigation technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to prevent damages or leakage due to PWSCC (Primary Water Stress Corrosion Cracking) and to improve the reliability of power plants, various technologies, inspection, mitigation, replacement and repair have been developed and performed. Water jet peening (WJP) and ultrasonic shot peening (USP) have been developed and verified as mitigation technologies and these techniques have been applied to the operating reactor vessels (RV) and the steam generators (SG). So far, the effect of WJP/USP on materials without cracks was confirmed by a verification test. However, there are detection limits in pre-inspections for WJP/USP. Therefore, it should be confirmed that the WJP/USP can be applied in cases where cracks shallower than the detection limit are present that it will not cause any negative impact on those cracks, such as crack growth. This paper describes the verification test for the applicability of WJP and USP to materials with shallow cracks beyond pre-inspection detection. First of all, plate mockups with shallow cracks were prepared. The WJP or USP was conducted on the mockups. Then, the residual stress adjacent to the cracks was measured and the presence of any shallow crack growth was inspected. From the test results, the effect of WJP/USP application on residual stress (compressive stress) on the surfaces with shallow cracks was confirmed and the harmlessness of WJP/USP application on shallow cracks, which means no cracks growth, was also observed. This means that the application of WJP and USP is effective in the case where shallow cracks, which are beyond detection, are present. Therefore, the WJP and USP are confirmed as mitigation technologies for PWSCC even in cases where there is no indication of cracks detected during the pre-inspection. (authors)

  7. Smart disaster mitigation in Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aimmanee, S.; Ekkawatpanit, C.; Asanuma, H.

    2016-04-01

    Thailand is notoriously exposed to several natural disasters, from heavy thunder storms to earthquakes and tsunamis, since it is located in the tropical area and has tectonic cracks underneath the ground. Besides these hazards flooding, despite being less severe, occurs frequently, stays longer than the other disasters, and affects a large part of the national territory. Recently in 2011 have also been recorded the devastating effects of major flooding causing the economic damages and losses around 50 billion dollars. Since Thailand is particularly exposed to such hazards, research institutions are involved in campaigns about monitoring, prevention and mitigation of the effects of such phenomena, with the aim to secure and protect human lives, and secondly, the remarkable cultural heritage. The present paper will first make a brief excursus on the main Thailand projects aimed at the mitigation of natural disasters, referring to projects of national and international relevance, being implemented, such as the ESCAP1999 (flow regime regulation and water conservation). Adaptable devices such as foldable flood barriers and hydrodynamically supported temporary banks have been utilized when flooding. In the second part of the paper, will be described some new ideas concerning the use of smart and biomimicking column structures capable of high-velocity water interception and velocity detection in the case of tsunami. The pole configuration is composite cylindrical shell structure embedded with piezoceramic sensor. The vortex shedding of the flow around the pole induces the vibration and periodically strains the piezoelectric element, which in turn generates the electrical sensorial signal. The internal space of the shell is filled with elastic foam to enhance the load carrying capability due to hydrodynamic application. This more rigid outer shell inserted with soft core material resemble lotus stem in nature in order to prolong local buckling and ovalization of column

  8. Radiosensitizers, radioprotectors, and radiation mitigators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jayam Raviraj

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Radiotherapy is regarded as one of the most important therapeutic modality for the treatment of malignant lesions. This field is undergoing rapid advancements in the recent times. With the use of radiosensitizers and radioprotective agents, the course of radiotherapy has improved the sensitization of tumor cells and protection of normal cells, respectively. The aim of this paper was to critically review and analyze the available compounds used as radiosensitizers, radioprotectors, and radiation mitigators. For reviewing, the author used the electronic search for the keywords ′Radiosensitizers′, ′Radioprotectors′, ′Radiation mitigators′ on PubMed for inclusion of previously published articles and further search of reference papers on individual radiosensitizing and radioprotecting agents was done. Radiosensitizers are agents that sensitize the tumor cells to radiation. These compounds apparently promote fixation of the free radicals produced by radiation damage at the molecular level. The mechanism of action is similar to the oxygen effect, in which biochemical reactions in the damaged molecules prevent repair of the cellular radiation damage. Free radicals such as OH + are captured by the electron affinity of the radiosensitizers, rendering the molecules incapable of repair. Radioprotectors are compounds that are designed to reduce the damage in normal tissues caused by radiation. These compounds are often antioxidants and must be present before or at the time of radiation for effectiveness. Other agents, termed mitigators, may be used to minimize toxicity even after radiation has been delivered. This article tries to discuss the various aspects of radiosensitizers, radioprotectors, and radiation mitigators including the newer agents.

  9. Energy strategy and mitigation potential in energy sector of the Russian federation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yakovlev, A.F.; Petrov, V.N.; Chupyatov, V.P.

    1996-12-31

    This paper describes the mitigation potential in the Russian energy sector and presents CO{sub 2} - emission scenarios. Based on the Russian energy strategy, energy conservation potential has been estimated and three groups of energy conservation measures have been pointed out. Taking into account the economic development scenarios and the scenarios of energy consumption and energy conservation, future CO{sub 2} emission scenarios for 2000 and 2010 have been prepared. Some important characteristics of these scenarios have been presented and discussed. For the period 2000-2010 annual growth rates for CO{sub 2} emission in the Russian energy sector will not exceed 0.9-1.3 %, and emission levels in 2000 make up - 75-78 %, and in 2010 - 81-88 % of the 1990 level. For the probable scenario the CO{sub 2} emission reducing will make up about 6% and 25% (for the optimistic scenario about 16% and 31%) of CO{sub 2} emission for reference scenario in 2000 and 2010 respectively. Additional CO{sub 2} emission reducing (3-5% of domestic CO{sub 2} emission) will result from increasing share of natural gas consumption.

  10. Net climate change mitigation of the Clean Development Mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has allowed industrialized countries to buy credits from developing countries for the purpose of meeting targets under the Kyoto Protocol. In principle, the CDM simply shifts the location of emission reductions, with no net mitigation impact. Departing from this zero-sum calculus, the Cancun Agreements reached at the sixteenth session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) in 2010 called for “one or more market-based mechanisms” capable of “ensuring a net decrease and/or avoidance of global greenhouse gas emissions”, an intention reiterated at COP 17 and COP 18. This article explores the extent to which the CDM may or may not already lead to such a “net decrease.” It finds that the CDM's net mitigation impact likely hinges on the additionality of large-scale power projects, which are expected to generate the majority of CDM credits going forward. If these projects are truly additional and continue to operate well beyond the credit issuance period, they will decrease global greenhouse gas emissions. However, if they are mostly non-additional, as research suggests, they could increase global greenhouse gas emissions. The article closes with a discussion of possible means to increase mitigation benefit. - Highlights: • The CDM's method for assessing additionality remains controversial and contested. • We develop two scenarios of the net emissions impact of the CDM. • The integrity of the CDM hinges on the emissions impact of power supply projects. • Additionality is hard to demonstrate with confidence for most power-supply projects. • A number of options are available to increase the mitigation benefit of the CDM

  11. Passive mitigation of mode instabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jauregui, C.; Otto, H.-J.; Stutzki, F.; Jansen, F.; Limpert, J.; Tünnermann, A.

    2014-03-01

    The phenomenon of mode instabilities has quickly become the most limiting effect for a further scaling of the average power of fiber laser systems. Consequently it is of great importance to find solutions for this problem. In this work we propose two concrete possible passive mitigation strategies: the first one is based on the reduction of the heat load in the fiber, whereas the second one is based on the reduction of the pump absorption. In both cases a significant increase of the threshold is expected.

  12. Detecting and mitigating inverter aging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nuclear power plants use inverters to supply power to safety-related equipment, instrumentation, and controls. They convert direct current (dc) to alternating current (ac) power, thereby making low voltage ac power available even under a station blackout condition. As part of the U.S. NRC's nuclear plant aging research (NPAR) program, the operating experience of this equipment has been analyzed to determine the dominant failure modes and causes. This paper summarizes that data, and then describes methods which can be employed to detect inverter degradation prior to failure, as well as methods to minimize the failure effects. In both cases, the mitigation of inverter aging is emphasized

  13. Efficacy of geoengineering to limit 21st century sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, J. C.; Jevrejeva, S.; Grinsted, A.

    2010-01-01

    Geoengineering has been proposed as a feasible way of mitigating anthropogenic climate change, especially increasing global temperatures in the 21st century. The two main geoengineering options are limiting incoming solar radiation, or modifying the carbon cycle. Here we examine the impact of five geoengineering approaches on sea level; SO2 aerosol injection into the stratosphere, mirrors in space, afforestation, biochar, and bioenergy with carbon sequestration. Sea level responds mainly at centennial time scales to temperature change, and has been largely driven by anthropogenic forcing since 1850. Making use a model of sea-level rise as a function of time-varying climate forcing factors (solar radiation, volcanism, and greenhouse gas emissions) we find that sea-level rise by 2100 will likely be 30 cm higher than 2000 levels despite all but the most aggressive geoengineering under all except the most stringent greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The least risky and most desirable way of limiting sea-level rise is bioenergy with carbon sequestration. However aerosol injection or a space mirror system reducing insolation at an accelerating rate of 1 W m-2 per decade from now to 2100 could limit or reduce sea levels. Aerosol injection delivering a constant 4 W m-2 reduction in radiative forcing (similar to a 1991 Pinatubo eruption every 18 months) could delay sea-level rise by 40–80 years. Aerosol injection appears to fail cost-benefit analysis unless it can be maintained continuously, and damage caused by the climate response to the aerosols is less than about 0.6% Global World Product. PMID:20798055

  14. Potentials to mitigate climate change using biochar - the Austrian perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruckman, Viktor J.; Klinglmüller, Michaela; Liu, Jay; Uzun, Basak B.; Varol, Esin A.

    2015-04-01

    Biomass utilization is seen as one of various promising strategies to reduce additional carbon emissions. A recent project on potentials of biochar to mitigate climate change (FOREBIOM) goes even a step further towards bioenergy in combination of CCS or "BECS" and tries to assess the current potentials, from sustainable biomass availability to biochar amendment in soils, including the identification of potential disadvantages and current research needs. The current report represents an outcome of the 1st FOREBIOM Workshop held in Vienna in April, 2013 and tries to characterize the Austrian perspective of biochar for climate change mitigation. The survey shows that for a widespread utilization of biochar in climate change mitigation strategies, still a number of obstacles have to be overcome. There are concerns regarding production and application costs, contamination and health issues for both producers and customers besides a fragmentary knowledge about biochar-soil interactions specifically in terms of long-term behavior, biochar stability and the effects on nutrient cycles. However, there are a number of positive examples showing that biochar indeed has the potential to sequester large amounts of carbon while improving soil properties and subsequently leading to a secondary carbon sink via rising soil productivity. Diversification, cascadic utilization and purpose designed biochar production are key strategies overcoming initial concerns, especially regarding economic aspects. A theoretical scenario calculation showed that relatively small amounts of biomass that is currently utilized for energy can reduce the gap between Austria's current GHG emissions and the Kyoto target by about 30% if biomass residues are pyrolized and biochar subsequently used as soil amendment. However, by using a more conservative approach that is representing the aims of the underlying FOREBIOM project (assuming that 10% of the annual biomass increment from forests is used for biochar

  15. Uncertainty of Climate Response to Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings Due to Different Land Use Scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Alexey V. ELISEEV; Igor I. MOKHOV

    2011-01-01

    The A.M.Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS) climate model (CM) of intermediatc complexity is extended by a spatially explicit terrestrial carbon cycle module.Numerical experiments with the IAP RAS CM are performed forced by the reconstructions of anthropogenic and natural forcings for the 16th to the 20th centuries and by combined SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A2-LUH (Land Use Harmonization) anthropogenic scenarios for the 21st century.Hereby,the impact of uncertainty in land-use scenarios on results of simulations with a coupled climate-carbon cycle model is tested.The simulations of the model realistically reproduced historical changes in carbon cycle characteristics.In the IAP RAS CM,climate warming reproduced in the 20th and 21st centuries enhanced terrestrial net primary production but terrestrial carbon uptake was suppressed due to an overcompensating increase in soil respiration.Around year 2100,the simulations the model forced by different land use scenarios diverged markedly,by about 70 Pg (C) in terms of biomass and soil carbon stock but they differed only by about 10 in terms of atmospheric carbon dioxide content.

  16. External Reactor Vessel Cooling Strategy Application for APR1400 Station Blackout Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In Korea, all NPPs implemented post-Fukushima measures. In U. S., the approach is to expand B5b strategy to build up FLEX strategies utilizing portable equipment. With portable pumps and connections, one can mitigate and respond to wide range of accidents. In this study, we examined the feasibility of cavity flooding using portable pumps for ERVC and its effectiveness in responding to extended SBO scenarios. The external reactor vessel cooling (ERVC) is one of important severe accident management (SAM) strategies adopted for APR1400. ERVC strategy is to remove decay heat from molten corium in lower plenum by submerging the vessel with water. The strategy requires water injection into cavity and APR1400 uses shutdown cooling pumps for this purpose, requiring electricity. Recent Fukushima accident shows the importance of mitigation capability against extended SBO scenarios

  17. External Reactor Vessel Cooling Strategy Application for APR1400 Station Blackout Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tran, Quang Diep Khanh; Oh, Seung Jong [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of); Ro, Seo Mi [KHNP Central Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    In Korea, all NPPs implemented post-Fukushima measures. In U. S., the approach is to expand B5b strategy to build up FLEX strategies utilizing portable equipment. With portable pumps and connections, one can mitigate and respond to wide range of accidents. In this study, we examined the feasibility of cavity flooding using portable pumps for ERVC and its effectiveness in responding to extended SBO scenarios. The external reactor vessel cooling (ERVC) is one of important severe accident management (SAM) strategies adopted for APR1400. ERVC strategy is to remove decay heat from molten corium in lower plenum by submerging the vessel with water. The strategy requires water injection into cavity and APR1400 uses shutdown cooling pumps for this purpose, requiring electricity. Recent Fukushima accident shows the importance of mitigation capability against extended SBO scenarios.

  18. Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea

    2006-01-01

    Scenarios are typically defined as stories describing different but equally plausible futures that are developed using methods that systematically gather perceptions about certainties and uncertainties. Scenarios are not intended to be truthful, but rather provocative and helpful in strategy form...

  19. Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

    2014-04-15

    Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO{sub 2} emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050

  20. Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO2 emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050 from 1

  1. 3(omega) Damage: Growth Mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The design of high power UV laser systems is limited to a large extent by the laser-initiated damage performance of transmissive fused silica optical components. The 3ω (i.e., the third harmonic of the primary laser frequency) damage growth mitigation LDRD effort focused on understanding and reducing the rapid growth of laser-initiated surface damage on fused silica optics. Laser-initiated damage can be discussed in terms of two key issues: damage initiated at some type of precursor and rapid damage growth of the damage due to subsequent laser pulses. The objective of the LDRD effort has been the elucidation of laser-induced damage processes in order to quantify and potentially reduce the risk of damage to fused silica surfaces. The emphasis of the first two years of this effort was the characterization and reduction of damage initiation. In spite of significant reductions in the density of damage sites on polished surfaces, statistically some amount of damage initiation should always be expected. The early effort therefore emphasized the development of testing techniques that quantified the statistical nature of damage initiation on optical surfaces. This work led to the development of an optics lifetime modeling strategy that has been adopted by the NIF project to address damage-risk issues. During FY99 interest shifted to the damage growth issue which was the focus of the final year of this project. The impact of the remaining damage sites on laser performance can be minimized if the damage sites did not continue to grow following subsequent illumination. The objectives of the final year of the LDRD effort were to apply a suite of state-of-the-art characterization tools to elucidate the nature of the initiated damage sites, and to identify a method that effectively mitigates further damage growth. Our specific goal is to understand the cause for the rapid growth of damage sites so that we can develop and apply an effective means to mitigate it. The prevailing

  2. Natural gas scenarios in the U.S. power sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The United States power sector is being transformed by the recent rise in the availability and use of unconventional natural gas, specifically shale gas. That transformation has already produced some of the most significant changes in the operation of the portfolio of electricity generation since WWII. Further implications are likely. To that end, we present results from numerical modeling of different United States (U.S.) power sector futures. These futures assess questions affecting today's natural gas and electric power markets, including the impacts of: forthcoming EPA rules on power plants, decarbonization options such as a clean energy standard (CES), potential improvements in key generation technologies, expanded use of natural gas outside of the power generation sector, and higher costs for natural gas production—assumed to arise from more robust environmental and safety practices in the field. The simulations were done using the ReEDS model looking out to the year 2050. ReEDS is a capacity expansion model that determines the least-cost combination of generation options that fulfill a variety of user-defined constraints such as projected load, capacity reserve margins, emissions limitations, and operating lifetimes. The baseline scenario shows strong growth in natural gas generation, leading to a roughly 2.5-fold increase in gas demand by 2050. Many other scenarios also see strong growth in gas-fired generation, highlighting questions about portfolio diversity, climate change, and research and development prioritization. - Highlights: • We examine the changing role of natural gas in the U.S. power sector. • We model 2 alternative scenarios using a high resolution capacity expansion model and compare them to a baseline. • Results are sensitive to estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) assumptions. • Gas generation grows strongly except in carbon mitigation scenario without CCS. • Higher costs from “greener” gas production have modest impact on

  3. A framework incorporating the impact of exposure scenarios and application conditions on risk assessment of chemicals applied to skin

    OpenAIRE

    Dancik, Yuri; Troutman, John A; Jaworska, Joanna

    2013-01-01

    Purpose 1. To develop a framework for exposure calculation via the dermal route to meet the needs of 21st century toxicity testing and refine current approaches; 2. To demonstrate the impact of exposure scenario and application conditions on the plasma concentration following dermal exposure. Method A workflow connecting a dynamic skin penetration model with a generic whole-body physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was developed. The impact of modifying exposure scenarios and ap...

  4. Is wartime mobilisation a suitable policy model for rapid national climate mitigation?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate science suggests that, to have a high probability of limiting global warming to an average temperature increase of 2 °C, global greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2020 and be reduced to close to zero by 2040. However, the current trend is heading towards at least 4 °C by 2100 and little effective action is being taken. This paper commences the process of developing contingency plans for a scenario in which a sudden major global climate impact galvanises governments to implement emergency climate mitigation targets and programs. Climate activists assert that rapid mitigation is feasible, invoking the scale and scope of wartime mobilisation strategies. This paper draws upon historical accounts of social, technological and economic restructurings in several countries during World War 2 in order to investigate potential applications of wartime experience to radical, rigorous and rapid climate mitigation strategies. We focus on the energy sector, the biggest single contributor to global climate change, in developed and rapidly developing countries. We find that, while wartime experience suggests some potential strategies for rapid climate mitigation in the areas of finance and labour, it also has severe limitations, resulting from its lack of democratic processes. - Highlights: • The paper explores the strengths and weaknesses of using wartime experience as a model for rapid climate mitigation. • Wartime experience suggests some potential strategies for rapid climate mitigation in the areas of finance and labour. • Wartime experience also has severe limitations, resulting from its lack of democratic processes

  5. Greenhouse gas emission mitigation in the Sri Lanka power sector supply side and demand side options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wijayatunga, P.D.C. [University of Moratuwa (Sri Lanka). Centre for Energy Studies; Fernando, W.J.L.S. [Sri Lanka Energy Managers Association, Colombo (Sri Lanka); Shrestha, R.M. [Asian Inst. of Technology, Pathumthani (Thailand). Energy Program

    2003-12-01

    Sri Lanka has had a hydropower dominated electricity generation sector for many years with a gradually decreasing percentage contribution from hydroresources. At the same time, the thermal generation share has been increasing over the years. Therefore, the expected fuel mix in the future in the large scale thermal generation system would be dominated by petroleum products and coal. This will result in a gradual increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) and other environmental emissions in the power sector and, hence, require special attention to possible mitigation measures. This paper analyses both the supply side and demand side (DSM) options available in the Sri Lanka power sector in mitigating emissions in the sector considering the technical feasibility and potential of such options. Further, the paper examines the carbon abatement costs associated with such supply side and DSM interventions using an integrated resource planning model, which is not used in Sri Lanka at present. The sensitivities of the final generation costs and emissions to different input parameters, such as discount rates, fuel prices and capital costs, are also presented in the paper. It is concluded that while some DSM measures are economically attractive as mitigation measures, all the supply side options have a relatively high cost of mitigation, particularly in the context of GHG emission mitigation. Further it is observed that when compared with the projected price of carbon under different global carbon trading scenarios, these supply side options cannot provide economically beneficial CO{sub 2} mitigation in countries like Sri Lanka. (author)

  6. Greenhouse gas emission mitigation in the Sri Lanka power sector supply side and demand side options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sri Lanka has had a hydropower dominated electricity generation sector for many years with a gradually decreasing percentage contribution from hydroresources. At the same time, the thermal generation share has been increasing over the years. Therefore, the expected fuel mix in the future in the large scale thermal generation system would be dominated by petroleum products and coal. This will result in a gradual increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) and other environmental emissions in the power sector and, hence, require special attention to possible mitigation measures. This paper analyses both the supply side and demand side (DSM) options available in the Sri Lanka power sector in mitigating emissions in the sector considering the technical feasibility and potential of such options. Further, the paper examines the carbon abatement costs associated with such supply side and DSM interventions using an integrated resource planning model, which is not used in Sri Lanka at present. The sensitivities of the final generation costs and emissions to different input parameters, such as discount rates, fuel prices and capital costs, are also presented in the paper. It is concluded that while some DSM measures are economically attractive as mitigation measures, all the supply side options have a relatively high cost of mitigation, particularly in the context of GHG emission mitigation. Further it is observed that when compared with the projected price of carbon under different global carbon trading scenarios, these supply side options cannot provide economically beneficial CO2 mitigation in countries like Sri Lanka

  7. Reference Scenario and Target Identification for Autonomous Active Space Debris Removal Methods

    OpenAIRE

    PETERS, Susanne; Förstner, Roger; Weigel, Martin; Fiedler, Hauke

    2013-01-01

    To alleviate the threat of space debris, a combination of debris mitigation measures and debris environment re- mediation techniques with regard to long-term environ- ment stability is required. Hereby, active space debris removal (ADR), which is subject to this paper, addresses the latter. To evolve a concept for autonomous ADR on a representative foundation, a reference scenario placed in the current Low Earth Orbit environment has been gen- erated. Due to cost-effec...

  8. Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amstrup, Steven C.; Deweaver, E.T.; Douglas, D.C.; Marcot, B.G.; Durner, G.M.; Bitz, C.M.; Bailey, D.A.

    2010-01-01

    On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the worlds polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold. Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model, that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case. Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice; instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points. Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models and observations represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout

  9. The Negawatt association reevaluates its energy scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In 2003 the association Negawatt imagined an energy policy scenario (2000-2050) which aims to divide by four the greenhouse gases emission. This scenario has just been completed for the 2006 edition with less growth evolution. This scenario expects the gradually shutdown of nuclear power plants for 2035, without the replacement by power plants of third generation. (A.L.B.)

  10. The role of technology and policy in mitigating regional nitrogen pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Human activity greatly influences nitrogen (N) pollution in urbanized and adjacent areas. We comprehensively studied the N cycling in an urban-rural complex system, the Greater Hangzhou Area (GHA) in southeastern China. Our results indicated that subsurface N accumulation doubled, riverine N export tripled and atmospheric N pollutants increased 2.5 times within the GHA from 1980-2004. Agriculture was the largest N pollution source to air and water before 2000, whereas industry and human living gradually became the primary N pollution sources with the socioeconomic development. Based on the sensitivity analysis, we developed a scenario analysis to quantify the effects of technology and policy on environmental N dynamics. The fertilization reduction scenario suggested that the groundwater N pollution could decrease by 17% with less than a 5% reduction in crop production; the N effluent standard revision scenario led to a surface water N pollution reduction of 45%; the constructed wetlands implementation scenario could reduce surface water pollution by 43%-64%. Lastly, the technological improvement scenario mitigated atmospheric N pollution by 65%. Technologies play a key role in atmospheric N pollution control, policies mainly contribute to groundwater N pollution control, while technology and policy both work on surface water N mitigation within an urban-rural complex.

  11. Global Warming in the Twenty-First Century: An Alternative Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar

    2000-01-01

    A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.

  12. The role of nuclear energy in the global energy scenario of the 21st century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present political situation in the Near East reminds us of the fact that there are risks in the energy supply which are rated higher than those of the nuclear energy. Additionally it has to be considered that with the world-wide necessary expansion of the energy supply, by using fossil fuels, the greenhouse effect will be considerably increased. In order to reduce these risks, the nuclear energy can play an important role. Subject of the paper is the potential of the nuclear energy for non-electric applications. (orig.)

  13. VEMAP vs VINCERA: A DGVM sensitivity to differences in climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachelet, D.; Lenihan, J.; Drapek, R.; Neilson, R.

    2008-11-01

    The MC1 DGVM has been used in two international model comparison projects, VEMAP (Vegetation Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project) and VINCERA (Vulnerability and Impacts of North American forests to Climate Change: Ecosystem Responses and Adaptation). The latest version of MC1 was run on both VINCERA and VEMAP climate and soil input data to document how a change in the inputs can affect model outcome. We compared simulation results under the two sets of future climate scenarios and reported on how the different inputs can affect vegetation distribution and carbon budget projections. Under all future scenarios, the interior West becomes woodier as warmer temperatures and available moisture allow trees to get established in grasslands areas. Concurrently, warmer and drier weather causes the eastern deciduous and mixed forests to shift to a more open canopy woodland or savanna type while boreal forests disappear almost entirely from the Great Lakes area by the end of the 21st century. While under VEMAP scenarios the model simulated large increases in carbon storage in a future woodier West, the drier VINCERA scenarios accounted for large carbon losses in the east and only moderate gains in the West. But under all future climate scenarios, the total area burned by wildfires increased especially in C4 grasslands under all scenarios and in dry woodlands under VINCERA scenarios. The model simulated non-agricultural lands in the conterminous United States as a source of carbon in the 21st century under the VINCERA future climate scenarios but not VEMAP. However, the magnitude of this carbon source to the atmosphere could be greatly reduced if the CO 2 growth enhancement factor built in the model was enhanced but evidence that all mature forests across the entire country will respond positively to increased atmospheric CO2 is still lacking.

  14. A preliminary assessment of carbon dioxide mitigation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this paper is to place the potential needs to control global carbon dioxide emissions in perspective. In order to limit carbon dioxide levels in the earth's atmosphere to no more than twice pre- anthropogenic levels, it will be necessary to limit carbon emissions to approximately 10 gigatons per year by 2050. The implications of such a constraint to the developed countries, developing countries, and international community are assessed. It is clear that international priorities must be established and specific approaches developed in the first quarter of the 21st century to define the necessary, minimum- cost mitigation strategies. Because of the complexity of establishing a meaningful policy approach, imposition of an arbitrary carbon tax is unlikely to provide the constraints necessary to achieve a satisfactory earth atmosphere - carbon dioxide equilibrium state

  15. Assessing the effort sharing for greenhouse gas emission reductions in ambitious global climate scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ekholm, T.; Soimakallio, S.; Hoehne, N.; Moltmann, S.; Syri, S.

    2008-11-15

    To reinforce the long-term commitment to climate change mitigation, the post-2012 climate policy framework is aimed to be completed by 2009. The new agreement needs to include a wider participation of parties, and therefore needs to address the effort sharing of countries. The mitigation capabilities and the responsibilities of countries do however vary significantly. This can, in principle, be overcome with a cap-and-trade system, with which the question of equity is addressed trough the allocation of emission allowances. A number of effort sharing schemes have been proposed. Effort sharing however suffers from a fundamental trade-off between detail and transparency on how the emission allocations are calculated. This study addresses this problem by comparing and combining the results from a transparent but simplified effort sharing model EVOC, and a detailed and due to its complexity seemingly non-transparent ETSAP-TIAM energy system model. The aim of the study is to evaluate the goodness of the initial effort sharing, particularly in terms of mitigation costs experienced by different regions in the scenarios. Based on the long-term energy-climate scenarios crafted with the TIAM model, we assess the resulting consequences in emission profiles and the energy system, concentrating especially on regional mitigation costs and emission trading. Two cases of market failures in emission trading are also considered. Finally we compare the mitigation potentials between the two models and estimate the effect of EVOC recalibration on the national emission allowances. The results of the study underline particularly the importance of detailed and reliable assumptions for the mitigation potentials of different countries in the effort sharing process. (orig.)

  16. An exploration of scenarios to support sustainable land management using integrated environmental socio-economic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleskens, L; Nainggolan, D; Stringer, L C

    2014-11-01

    Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes. PMID:24263675

  17. The ShakeOut Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Lucile M.; Bernknopf, Richard; Cox, Dale; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Perry, Suzanne; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

    2008-01-01

    This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness exercise, the Great Southern California ShakeOut, and for this purpose we defined our earthquake as occurring at 10:00 a.m. on November 13, 2008. As members of the southern California community use the ShakeOut Scenario to plan and execute the exercise, we anticipate discussion and feedback. This community input will be used to refine our assessment and will lead to a formal publication in early 2009. Our goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California and in so doing, enable the users of our results to identify what they can change now?before the earthquake?to avoid catastrophic impact after the inevitable earthquake occurs. To do so, we had to determine the physical damages (casualties and losses) caused by the earthquake and the impact of those damages on the region?s social and economic systems. To do this, we needed to know about the earthquake ground shaking and fault rupture. So we first constructed an earthquake, taking all available earthquake research information, from trenching and exposed evidence of prehistoric earthquakes, to analysis of instrumental recordings of large earthquakes and the latest theory in earthquake source physics. We modeled a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault, a plausible event on the fault most likely to produce a major earthquake. This information was then fed forward into the rest of the ShakeOut Scenario. The damage impacts of the scenario earthquake were estimated using both HAZUS-MH and expert opinion through 13 special studies and 6 expert panels, and fall into four

  18. Benchmark scenarios for the NMSSM

    CERN Document Server

    Djouadi, A; Ellwanger, U; Godbole, R; Hugonie, C; King, S F; Lehti, S; Moretti, S; Nikitenko, A; Rottlander, I; Schumacher, M; Teixeira, A

    2008-01-01

    We discuss constrained and semi--constrained versions of the next--to--minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model (NMSSM) in which a singlet Higgs superfield is added to the two doublet superfields that are present in the minimal extension (MSSM). This leads to a richer Higgs and neutralino spectrum and allows for many interesting phenomena that are not present in the MSSM. In particular, light Higgs particles are still allowed by current constraints and could appear as decay products of the heavier Higgs states, rendering their search rather difficult at the LHC. We propose benchmark scenarios which address the new phenomenological features, consistent with present constraints from colliders and with the dark matter relic density, and with (semi--)universal soft terms at the GUT scale. We present the corresponding spectra for the Higgs particles, their couplings to gauge bosons and fermions and their most important decay branching ratios. A brief survey of the search strategies for these states a...

  19. Model-Based Mitigation of Availability Risks

    OpenAIRE

    Zambon, Emmanuele; Bolzoni, Damiano; Etalle, Sandro; Salvato, Marco

    2007-01-01

    The assessment and mitigation of risks related to the availability of the IT infrastructure is becoming increasingly important in modern organizations. Unfortunately, present standards for Risk Assessment and Mitigation show limitations when evaluating and mitigating availability risks. This is due to the fact that they do not fully consider the dependencies between the constituents of an IT infrastructure that are paramount in large enterprises. These dependencies make the technical problem ...

  20. The Political Economy of Mitigation and Adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Habla, Wolfgang; Roeder, Kerstin

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we acknowledge that the mitigation of and adaptation to climate change have differential fiscal impacts. Whereas mitigation typically raises fiscal revenues, adaptation is costly to the taxpayer and to a greater extent the more distortionary the tax system is. In an OLG model with majority voting, we analyze how the choices of mitigation and adaptation are distorted under a lump-sum and a distortionary income tax regime. We find that whenever emissions and adaptation exhibit st...

  1. Structural master plan of flood mitigation measures

    OpenAIRE

    A. Heidari

    2009-01-01

    Flood protection is one of the practical methods in damage reduction. Although it not possible to be completely protected from flood disaster but major part of damages can be reduced by mitigation plans. In this paper, the optimum flood mitigation master plan is determined by economic evaluation in trading off between the construction costs and expected value of damage reduction as the benefits. Size of the certain mitigation alternative is also be obtained by risk analysis by accepting possi...

  2. Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification

    OpenAIRE

    Burney, J. A; S. J. Davis; Lobell, D. B.

    2010-01-01

    As efforts to mitigate climate change increase, there is a need to identify cost-effective ways to avoid emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Agriculture is rightly recognized as a source of considerable emissions, with concomitant opportunities for mitigation. Although future agricultural productivity is critical, as it will shape emissions from conversion of native landscapes to food and biofuel crops, investment in agricultural research is rarely mentioned as a mitigation strategy. Here w...

  3. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  4. The role of biomass and CCS in China in a climate mitigation perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lüthje, Mikael; Karlsson, Kenneth Bernard; Gregg, Jay Sterling;

    2011-01-01

    As the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gasses (GHGs), China plays a central role in the suite of options for climate change mitigation. To analyze the importance of biomass and carbon capture and storage (CCS) availability in China, varying levels of these parameters are created......, and bioenergy CCS (BECCS) in China under the constraint of meeting a climate stabilization target such that dangerous climate change (as defined by the Copenhagen Accord) is avoided. When considering hypothetical scenarios where GHG emissions are constrained, China consumes all available domestic biomass...... that while both utilization of biomass and CCS are essential options for reducing emissions in China, BECCS is not the most cost effective option in China. CCS is nevertheless an important option for China; in the climate mitigation scenarios modeled, by 2050, China is projected to employ CCS on at least 70...

  5. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

    2005-11-01

    Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

  6. Acoustic metamaterials for sound mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assouar, Badreddine; Oudich, Mourad; Zhou, Xiaoming

    2016-05-01

    We provide theoretical and numerical analyses of the behavior of a plate-type acoustic metamaterial considered in an air-borne sound environment in view of sound mitigation application. Two configurations of plate are studied, a spring-mass one and a pillar system-based one. The acoustic performances of the considered systems are investigated with different approaches and show that a high sound transmission loss (STL) up to 82 dB is reached with a metamaterial plate with a thickness of 0.5 mm. The physical understanding of the acoustic behavior of the metamaterial partition is discussed based on both air-borne and structure-borne approaches. Confrontation between the STL, the band structure, the displacement fields and the effective mass density of the plate metamaterial is made to have a complete physical understanding of the different mechanisms involved. xml:lang="fr"

  7. Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation

    CERN Document Server

    Seiner, John; Suzuki, Toshio; Lackner, Maximilian

    2012-01-01

    There is a mounting consensus that human behavior is changing the global climate and its consequence could be catastrophic. Reducing the 24 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions from stationary and mobile sources is a gigantic task involving both technological challenges and monumental financial and societal costs. The pursuit of sustainable energy resources, environment, and economy has become a complex issue of global scale that affects the daily life of every citizen of the world. The present mitigation activities range from energy conservation, carbon-neutral energy conversions, carbon advanced combustion process that produce no greenhouse gases and that enable carbon capture and sequestion, to other advanced technologies. From its causes and impacts to its solutions, the issues surrounding climate change involve multidisciplinary science and technology. This handbook will provide a single source of this information. The book will be divided into the following sections: Scientific Evidence of Cl...

  8. Northern Hemisphere hydroclimate variability over the past twelve centuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier; Krusic, Paul J; Sundqvist, Hanna S; Zorita, Eduardo; Brattström, Gudrun; Frank, David

    2016-04-01

    Accurate modelling and prediction of the local to continental-scale hydroclimate response to global warming is essential given the strong impact of hydroclimate on ecosystem functioning, crop yields, water resources, and economic security. However, uncertainty in hydroclimate projections remains large, in part due to the short length of instrumental measurements available with which to assess climate models. Here we present a spatial reconstruction of hydroclimate variability over the past twelve centuries across the Northern Hemisphere derived from a network of 196 at least millennium-long proxy records. We use this reconstruction to place recent hydrological changes and future precipitation scenarios in a long-term context of spatially resolved and temporally persistent hydroclimate patterns. We find a larger percentage of land area with relatively wetter conditions in the ninth to eleventh and the twentieth centuries, whereas drier conditions are more widespread between the twelfth and nineteenth centuries. Our reconstruction reveals that prominent seesaw patterns of alternating moisture regimes observed in instrumental data across the Mediterranean, western USA, and China have operated consistently over the past twelve centuries. Using an updated compilation of 128 temperature proxy records, we assess the relationship between the reconstructed centennial-scale Northern Hemisphere hydroclimate and temperature variability. Even though dry and wet conditions occurred over extensive areas under both warm and cold climate regimes, a statistically significant co-variability of hydroclimate and temperature is evident for particular regions. We compare the reconstructed hydroclimate anomalies with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulations and find reasonable agreement during pre-industrial times. However, the intensification of the twentieth-century-mean hydroclimate anomalies in the simulations, as compared to previous centuries, is not supported

  9. Interference Mitigation in Cognitive Femtocells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Da Costa, Gustavo Wagner Oliveira; Cattoni, Andrea Fabio; Alvarez Roig, Victor;

    2010-01-01

    , management and optimization can be prohibitive. Instead, self-optimization of an uncoordinated deployment should be considered. Cognitive Radio enabled femtocells are considered to be a promising solution to enable self-optimizing femtocells to effectively manage the inter-cell interference, especially in...... densely deployed femto scenarios. In this paper, two key elements of cognitive femtocells are combined: a power control algorithm and a fully distributed dynamic spectrum allocation method. The resulting solution was evaluated through system-level simulations and compared to the separate algorithms and...

  10. Economic resilience lessons from the ShakeOut earthquake scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, A.; Rose, A.

    2011-01-01

    Following a damaging earthquake, “business interruption” (BI)—reduced production of goods and services—begins and continues long after the ground shaking stops. Economic resilience reduces BI losses by making the best use of the resources available at a given point in time (static resilience) or by speeding recovery through repair and reconstruction (dynamic resilience), in contrast to mitigation that prevents damage in the first place. Economic resilience is an important concept to incorporate into economic loss modeling and in recovery and contingency planning. Economic resilience framework includes the applicability of resilience strategies to production inputs and output, demand- and supply-side effects, inherent and adaptive abilities, and levels of the economy. We use our resilience framework to organize and share strategies that enhance economic resilience, identify overlooked resilience strategies, and present evidence and structure of resilience strategies for economic loss modelers. Numerous resilience strategies are compiled from stakeholder discussions about the ShakeOut Scenario (Jones et. al. 2008). Modeled results of ShakeOut BI sector losses reveal variable effectiveness of resilience strategies for lengthy disruptions caused by fire-damaged buildings and water service outages. Resilience is a complement to mitigation and may, in fact, have cost and all-hazards advantages.

  11. A crash programme scenario for the Canadian oil sands industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The report Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management, by Robert L. Hirsch et al., concludes that Peak Oil is going to happen and that worldwide large-scale mitigation efforts are necessary to avoid its possible devastating effects for the world economy. These efforts include accelerated production, referred to as crash programme production, from Canada's oil sands. The objective of this article is to investigate and analyse what production levels that might be reasonable to expect from a crash programme for the Canadian oil sands industry, within the time frame 2006-2018 and 2006-2050. The implementation of a crash programme for the Canadian oil sands industry is associated with serious difficulties. There is not a large enough supply of natural gas to support a future Canadian oil sands industry with today's dependence on natural gas. It is possible to use bitumen as fuel and for upgrading, although it seems to be incompatible with Canada's obligations under the Kyoto treaty. For practical long-term high production, Canada must construct nuclear facilities to generate energy for the in situ projects. Even in a very optimistic scenario Canada's oil sands will not prevent Peak Oil. A short-term crash programme from the Canadian oil sands industry achieves about 3.6 mb/d by 2018. A long-term crash programme results in a production of approximately 5 mb/d by 2030

  12. Analysing the external supply chain risk driver competitiveness: a risk mitigation framework and business continuity plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blos, Mauricio F; Wee, Hui-Ming; Yang, Joshua

    2010-11-01

    Innovation challenges for handling supply chain risks have become one of the most important drivers in business competitiveness and differentiation. This study analyses competitiveness at the external supply chain level as a driver of risks and provides a framework for mitigating these risks. The mitigation framework, also called the supply chain continuity framework, provides insight into six stages of the business continuity planning (BCP) process life cycle (risk mitigation management, business impact analysis, supply continuity strategy development, supply continuity plan development, supply continuity plan testing and supply continuity plan maintenance), together with the operational constructs: customer service, inventory management, flexibility, time to market, ordering cycle time and quality. The purpose of the BCP process life cycle and operational constructs working together is to emphasise the way in which a supply chain can deal with disruption risks and, consequently, bring competitive advantage. Future research will consider the new risk scenarios and analyse the consequences to promote the improvement of supply chain resilience. PMID:21177223

  13. Listeria monocytogenes in Retail Delicatessens: An Interagency Risk Assessment-Risk Mitigations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallagher, Daniel; Pouillot, Régis; Hoelzer, Karin; Tang, Jia; Dennis, Sherri B; Kause, Janell R

    2016-07-01

    Cross-contamination, improper holding temperatures, and insufficient sanitary practices are known retail practices that may lead to product contamination and growth of Listeria monocytogenes. However, the relative importance of control options to mitigate the risk of invasive listeriosis from ready-to-eat (RTE) products sliced or prepared at retail is not well understood. This study illustrates the utility of a quantitative risk assessment model described in a first article of this series (Pouillot, R., D. Gallagher, J. Tang, K. Hoelzer, J. Kause, and S. B. Dennis, J. Food Prot. 78:134-145, 2015) to evaluate the public health impact associated with changes in retail deli practices and interventions. Twenty-two mitigation scenarios were modeled and evaluated under six different baseline conditions. These scenarios were related to sanitation, worker behavior, use of growth inhibitors, cross-contamination, storage temperature control, and reduction of the level of L. monocytogenes on incoming RTE food products. The mean risk per serving of RTE products obtained under these scenarios was then compared with the risk estimated in the baseline condition. Some risk mitigations had a consistent impact on the predicted listeriosis risk in all baseline conditions (e.g. presence or absence of growth inhibitor), whereas others were greatly dependent on the initial baseline conditions or practices in the deli (e.g. preslicing of products). Overall, the control of the bacterial growth and the control of contamination at its source were major factors of listeriosis risk in these settings. Although control of cross-contamination and continued sanitation were also important, the decrease in the predicted risk was not amenable to a simple solution. Findings from these predictive scenario analyses are intended to encourage improvements to retail food safety practices and mitigation strategies to control L. monocytogenes in RTE foods more effectively and to demonstrate the utility of

  14. Possible (water sensitive) mitigation strategies for the urban climate in a regional climate modelling context

    OpenAIRE

    Demuzere, Matthias; Coutts, Andrew; Van Lipzig, Nicole

    2012-01-01

    Urban climate models provide a useful tool for assessing the impacts of urban land surface modification on urban climates. It provides a mechanism for trialling different scenarios for urban heat island mitigation. Only recently, urban land surfaces have been included in global and regional climate models. Often they represent a trade-off between the complexity of the biophysical processes of the urban canopy layer and the computational demands in order to be workable on regional climate time...

  15. The role of biomass and CCS in China in a climate mitigation perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Lüthje, Mikael; Karlsson, Kenneth Bernard; Gregg, Jay Sterling; Føyn, Tullik Helene Ystanes; Balyk, Olexandr

    2011-01-01

    As the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gasses (GHGs), China plays a central role in the suite of options for climate change mitigation. To analyze the importance of biomass and carbon capture and storage (CCS) availability in China, varying levels of these parameters are created and then global climate scenarios are simulated using TIAM (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model). TIAM is a 16-region global energy system optimization model that includes a climate module that calculates the glob...

  16. Costs of mitigating CO2 emissions from passenger aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schäfer, Andreas W.; Evans, Antony D.; Reynolds, Tom G.; Dray, Lynnette

    2016-04-01

    In response to strong growth in air transportation CO2 emissions, governments and industry began to explore and implement mitigation measures and targets in the early 2000s. However, in the absence of rigorous analyses assessing the costs for mitigating CO2 emissions, these policies could be economically wasteful. Here we identify the cost-effectiveness of CO2 emission reductions from narrow-body aircraft, the workhorse of passenger air transportation. We find that in the US, a combination of fuel burn reduction strategies could reduce the 2012 level of life cycle CO2 emissions per passenger kilometre by around 2% per year to mid-century. These intensity reductions would occur at zero marginal costs for oil prices between US$50-100 per barrel. Even larger reductions are possible, but could impose extra costs and require the adoption of biomass-based synthetic fuels. The extent to which these intensity reductions will translate into absolute emissions reductions will depend on fleet growth.

  17. An operational hydrological ensemble prediction system for the city of Zurich (Switzerland: skill, case studies and scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Addor

    2011-07-01

    to generate high discharge scenarios. They highlight challenges for making decisions on the basis of hydrological predictions, and indicate the need for a tool to be used in addition to forecasts to compare the different mitigation actions possible in the Sihl catchment. No definitive conclusion on the model chain capacity to forecast flooding events endangering the city of Zurich could be drawn because of the under-sampling of extreme events. Further research on the form of the reforecasts needed to infer on floods associated to return periods of several decades, centuries, is encouraged.

  18. Food irradiation: a global scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Many of the foods that will be consumed in the 21st century have not yet been invented. New methods of production need new methods of conservation. Food irradiation by gamma radiation or electron beam is a new technology. The intensive production methods of today lead to several potential dangers. For example - if just one chicken is diseased this bird can contaminate all of one days' production at the slaughter house - on average 300,000 birds per day. One has to have conservation methods that can decontaminate the poultry meat. Irradiation is a method that achieves this. The consumer is becoming more and more sophisticated and demanding with regard to the quality of food products, rejecting chemical additives for example, irradiation is a physical method of conservation, this means that there is no residue left in the product, and that there are no changes in the physical characteristics of the food. This paper examines the use of irradiation technology as a food conservation method in today's industry. (author). 4 refs., 2 tabs

  19. New Development in Greenhouse Technology can Mitigate the Water Shortage Problem of the 21st Century

    OpenAIRE

    Kooten, van, J.; Heuvelink, E.; Stanghellini, C.

    2008-01-01

    The world's fresh accessible water situation is deteriorating at a dismal pace. Though the situation is already quite dramatic in Africa, the near future will bring us great problems in Asia as well, considering the pace at which the population is growing and the rise in water use per capita as the economy induces a raised demand. Agricultural consumption of fresh water is one of the main water uses world wide; however, it appears that protected cultivation of horticultural crops can alleviat...

  20. New Development in Greenhouse Technology can Mitigate the Water Shortage Problem of the 21st Century

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooten, van O.; Heuvelink, E.; Stanghellini, C.

    2008-01-01

    The world's fresh accessible water situation is deteriorating at a dismal pace. Though the situation is already quite dramatic in Africa, the near future will bring us great problems in Asia as well, considering the pace at which the population is growing and the rise in water use per capita as the